4* LSU (208) +7-1/2 over Auburn

Over the years LSU has been a very dangerous team in Death Valley when they appear to be overmatched. Visiting Auburn is 5-1 vs. LSU's 4-2 record.  Key...the ability of the LSU defense to circumvent the Auburn running which is their most important offensive cog. Recently, the LSU OC has brought back the old jet sweep which has helped the attack.  Because Auburn's defense has a tendency to overact we think LSU can produce more than expected offensively. Overall, this should be a defensive struggle and a close game. The home team in the series is 7-1 ATS, while LSU has covered 4-of-5 in the series.  Good Luck.

4* (155) Florida State -7 over Duke

Difficult game for the struggling 1-3 Sems but, can't trust Devils who are off back-to-back losses. Florida State has the major edge at the line of scrimmage with their tenacious athletic defense, and remember State is a desperate unit. Both units have key injuries, Sems a little more attrition but, they have more depth.  FSU is 19-0 SU in the series winning by double-digits in all.  Duke (4-2) has lost back-to-back games after starting with four straight wins.  Realize this is huge game for the Devils but, trust Sems personality and talent especially, if QB Jones plays a conservative game and stay away from key turnovers in positive field position.  FSU has covered 5 straight in this building. Good Luck.  

4* (104) Carolina -3 over Philadelphia @ 8:25 Eastern

Both units are in first place within their divisions at 4-1 SU, the Panthers show off amazing back-to-back road wins 33-30 over New England and 27-24 against Detroit.  Carolina is 3-0 SU on the road this season, 1-1 at home being waxed by NO 34-13 in week #3.  The Eagles have won three straight over NYG 27-24, 26-24 at the Chargers and 34-7 over Arizona. QB Wentz (137.8) leads the NFL in 3rd down effectiveness but, Carolina has limited the opposition quarterbacks to a passing rating of 87.8.  Just remember Philly’s recent wins have been against suffering football teams with a 3-12 SU mark.  Critical, the Eagles will be without Sproles, Darby, Johnson and Cox with other players nicked up in the first 22. Also, Philly coach Pederson is 0-6 SU on the road without Lane Johnson in the lineup. Further, Philadelphia is 3-7 ATS on the road L10 times out.  The Panthers come in 12-5-1 ATS in week #6 affairs.  The chalk in the series is on a PERFECT 4-0 ATS run.   

5* (317) Eastern Michigan+ over Toledo @ 12:00 Eastern

Normally, would never go against the Rockets at home against a lesser foe but, their defense is dropped to #95 in total defense nationally.  So, despite EMUs frustrations this season, they should get under the number and challenge Toledo SU.  EMU is 12-3-1 ATS on the road and 8-1 ATS against .500+ units. Toledo on a recent down at home is 0-5 ATS in Vegas.

4* Arkansas State (301) over Georgia Southern @ 8:00 Eastern

A Decent number for State to lay on the road considering they are just 1-2 SU with the only win over Arkansas-Bluff.  In 2016, Arkansas State at home survived 27-26 against Southern.  Where they major change here is on offense where State has become more of a passing with QB Hansen (10/2) throwing for 985 yards and 69% completions.  Southern has new starter behind the center in QB Wertz (2/2) but, he has struggled to throw the football with just 230 yards in three games.  Also, on the playing field Arkansas State eleven senior starters to just four for Southern.  Overall, the visitor has too many weapons at this point in the season for Georgia Southern. Remember, State is 5-0 ATS off a bye week.  Good Luck.

4* Philadelphia+ over San Diego

The Chargers seem very overpriced here knowing they are 0-6 ATS off a SU loss and 0-7-1 ATS L8. They 0-3 SU, and don't seem to play consistently throughout the football.  The Eagles 1-2 have been in all three of their games, despite a 1-2 record.  What I like here is the Philly yards-per-point of 14.5 vs. the Chargers 19.7, while at home LA is showing 25.8 yards per.  Eagles by a FG.

NFL sides on a majestic 80% run off a huge Sunday last time out.  So, if you're looking to cash EARLY, go live across the pond and WIN AGAIN...More to follow!

Good Luck, Brad Diamond

5* Cincinnati over Cleveland

NFL GAM OF THE WEEK...BDS

In Bill Lazor's first week as OC, the Bengals got the ball out of Andy Dalton's hands quicker and relied more heavily on their best weapon, A.J. Green. Cincy also finally leaned on Joe Mixon. The rookie earned 21 offensive touches in Week 3, exactly equaling his workload in the first two games combined. We should see more Mixon this week. The patient runner has superior vision to go along with game-breaking ability. With Mixon as a dual-threat, it should open up play-action shots from Dalton deep against a Browns secondary that has been burned often through three games. With the Bengals winning 5 straight in the series we'll stay with the road unit ATS.

3* (252) Miami+ over New Orleans @ 9:30 Eastern

NFL Early Foreign Edition…BDS

Here we go again with the beleaguered NFL playing across the pond in an early morning set US.  Last week the underdog Fish were smashed by the New York Jets 20-6 in what looked like one feeble football team.  The Saints (1-2) last time out smashed the “Panthers” 34-13. To begin with the Dolphins lost their starting QB and had use retread Jay Cutler which proved to be another offensive mistake by the Miami brain trust.  The Saints after going 0-2 really step out in their Carolina win as QB Brees had a super game and the running attack finally showed some steam.  Remember, the Fish have more talented defense than offense and catch the role of an underdog in an early start (Jacksonville). New Orleans no doubt has been a super October ATS machine of late but, the unit is a PERFECT 0-4 ATS off a win of 14 or more.   The “obvious” technicians will be all over NO but, I like our chances with +3, +3-1/2 and Miami. 

4* (484)…LA over Kansas City @ 4:25 Eastern

NFL Upset Alert….BDS

Difficult game to assess, somewhat, considering the visiting Chiefs are winners of 6 straight in the series and have Andy Reid as their coach.  I’ve always enjoyed capping Reid’s games going back to his days with the Philadelphia Eagles.  The visitor has recently crushed their division opponents, however this situation seems to setup well for the home standing Chargers.  Critical will be the LA defensive abilities trying to corner the down the field attack of KC with QB Alex Smith looking to do damage.  Remember, though, this game is more important to the Chargers who have started 0-2 SU, while losing in horrible fashion in each encounter.  If QB Rivers (73.6%) can extract some midfield openings for his receivers the Chargers may control the tempo of this football game.  We think he has a great shot especially, considering the Chiefs are 1-7 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game.  We close with LA 11-4-2 ATS in September.

5* (410) Stanford -7, nothing higher over UCLA @ 10:30 Eastern

CFB PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Power numbers give us the Cardinal tonight at home.   Granted they are 0-5 ATS vs. >.500 units and 0-4 ATS at home recently.  However, they show 11-3 ATS off a SU loss, and now we have "true" line value with the public taking down the early quote.  UCLA (4.2) has deficit running numbers compared to the Cardinal 7.5 yards per carry, which is a critical insight when evaluating "TOP."  Finally, "I could go on forever" the favorite in this series is hitting a red hot 78% against the number.  Buy at -7!  Good Luck!

4* Army (381) +3 over Tulane @ 12:00 Eastern

Would feel stronger about this situation if they were, obviously, playing back east....but, we still favor the Middies (2-1) who should control the line of scrimmage and the game clock.  Respect Tulane (1-2) who can score but, their defense should not have the long-term capabilities of shutting down their opposition.  Remember, is 5-1 ATS vs. the AAC and 8-2 ATS in the month of September.  The Greenies show with a horrendous 1-8 ATS home mark vs. winning road units.  Good Luck.

10* Louisville+ over Clemson @ 8:00 Eastern Saturday

CFB TOP UPSET ALERT....BDS

10* UMASS+ over Temple @ 7:00 Eastern

CFB EASTERN EDGE TOP PLAY...BDS

4* (459) Philadelphia over Washington @ 1:00 Eastern

Washington almost booked a playoff game last season and here they opened as a -2-1/2 favorite way back in the summer out on the Strip. Philadelphia deflated last season behind young QB Wentz, however, the kid was truly hammered at times looking shell shocked against the upper crust of the league.  Owner Lurie, though, opened up the purse strings and went after some key offensive talent to allow Wentz some weapons to make a difference.  If newly acquired RB Blount (NE) has a "good" day the Eagles have a great chance of securing a week #1 (4-0 ATS) win on the road. Washington lost critical late season games to the Giants and Panthers of which their followers have not let them forget. Granted QB Cousins is back to run the offense but, they have 7 new starters to blend in this early start? 

In their December (2016) back breaking loss to Washington (22-27), the Eagles defense gave up a rushing TD with under 2:00 minutes of the 4th quarter for a come from behind loss.  Philly ran 76 plays to 46 for Washington. In addition, the Eagles had a 13 minute time of possession advantage but, the 'Skins outgained them 11.1 to 6.8 yards-per-play.  So, this a HUGE REVENGE GAME for Philly who now have weapons for Wentz to utilize against the so-so 'Skins defense.  Remember, Washington has not won an opening day encounter going back to 2012.  Eagles by 4.

5* Auburn+ (377) over Clemson @ 7:00 Eastern

Brad Diamond's Famous SEC Game of the Week

This is game #2 of the season for these stellar programs out of the ACC and SEC.  Both schools won against smallish programs in week #1.  The defending national champions Clemson, though, have a huge hurdle to overcome Saturday, playing against a SEC unit without QB Deshaun Watson who has graduated to the NFL.  That's ground's enough for this handicapper to give Auburn a more than serious look, especially when you consider that today's visitor has dominated the series 33-14-2.  Clemson brings just 12 starters back, while Auburn has 15 in the fold. Clemson comes in winners of three straight in the series, which equates to a triple revenge scenario for Auburn and they're getting points!  And, we remind the public Auburn has covered 5-of-6 in non-conference games.  Good Luck.

5* (962) ARIZONA (CORBIN) -1-1/2 Runs over San Diego

RUNS LINE GAME OF THE WEEK

Can't ignore Snakes winning streak and their clear uptake from the hitting standpoint. Lefty Corbin has been lights out since the break with a 2.43 ERA, and a 7-2 mark.   He has won 5 straight starts.  Suffering Padres bring hurler Lyles to the mound who has no luck against Arizona with a 1-6 record and a massive 7.26 ERA.  With Arizona #1 in baseball in run lines games (79-61), we'll lay the run-and-a-half with Arizona.

4* Kansas City+ (451) over New England @ 8:30 Eastern

Psychologically this encounter belongs 100% to the Kansas City Chiefs and old-time head coach Andy Reid.  We’ll start with the Patriots (14-2) who won the Super Bowl 34-28 after being behind 28-3 in the third quarter versus the Falcons.  Prior NE had defeated Houston, and then Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game.  The Patriots are the only team in history to win back-to-back Super Bowls. For sure, NE grew to be Vegas sweet hearts again finishing 13-3 ATS (8-0 streak).  Here, they play as the chalk (-8, -9) at home in this Thursday night affair to begin 2017.  On the other hand, Kansas City came out of the 2016 campaign 12-4 after crushing late on a 10-2 SU run, however, Ole Andy lost to the Steelers in the divisional round playoffs 18-16.  Remember that because, the Chiefs play big games close as a habit. Coach Reid is 6-0 ATS challenging AFC East entrants.  These two faced each other in the 2016 playoffs with NE winning 27-20.  The key fundamental stat from last year that provides underdogs with a built-in edge is the Chiefs defense which scored 5 touchdowns on that side of the ball.  Important, KC was ranked #1 in turnover margin (+16) in 2016 and return an outstanding front seven defensively.  Granted the Chiefs lost RB Ware and will be using a third string running back for the most part but, NE also will miss an ace on their offense WR Edelman.  With so much tension in the line for the Patriots believe we’ll see a FG game and quite possibly an over-time affair.  TAKE THE POINTS!

Philadelphia +1-1/2 runs over NY Mets

Phillies using Lively, the Mets DeGrom in the 2nd game of the series up in New York.  After running out early on the Phils yesterday the Mets hung to win 11-7.  When facing DeGrom back in June, hurler Lively of Philadelphia crafted 7 innings of work allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run. He has had tough luck on the road with a 1-3 mark, 3.82 ERA.  DeGrom is 2-0 with a solid 1.37 ERA against the Phillies this season.  At home, the righty and NY are 5-0 L5 but, we look for a reversal against the pesky Phillies who bring Herrera back to the lineup.  As a runs line unit the Mets are 72-65, while the Mets are next to last at 59-78.  We look for the Phillies to either pull out a shocker or take the Mets to the wire.  Good Luck.

Colorado over Colorado State

Surely, this spot points to line value for the Buffs, even though the Rams played last week.  Coach McIntyre has CU sky high for this date in Denver (neutral site) and he already stated that QB Montez is ready mentally and physically, despite being tagged as the starter for the season.  Remember, last year the kid played well in relief and had a massive game at Oregon. The talk is the Buffs lost too many starters on defense but, we disagree.  They have very talented replacements on defense and a huge OL that will fortify their crushing running attack.  The last time these two played the Buffs won 44-7. Look for a different type venue here with the Rams flashy QB and there ability to throw down the field.   Look for Colorado to dominate with their ball control offense frustrating the CSU defense, and keeping their offense off the field.  Technically, Colorado is 4-0 ATS in September and have covered the last 11-of-15 in the series.  State is 5-12 SU against the PAC-12.  Finally, believe there is a close game on deck but, we see Colorado winning by 7.  Good Luck.

Fla. Atlantic+ over Navy @ 8:00

Clearly, the "Trap Game" of the day in College Football.  First off, Navy comes in the more established program with a solid coach running the triple option.  FAU has some solid assets of their own with Lane Kiffin running the show.  He has picked up some HIGH-LEVEL talent to fortify the Owls program.  And, he now has another riverboat gambler in OC Kendal Briles.  So, we look for an uptick offensively. When looking at the returning starters from the production standpoint, FAU is ranked #8 on offense.  On defense, the production base of returning starters has an effective yield of 76%.  The Middies come in a huge favorite but, bring only a 32% production efficiency on offense. Their defense has a 53% production effectiveness, overall the squad is ranked just #103 in the nation.  This situation might surprise some but, I know Kiffin would like to start 2017 with a win.  For now, we'll just TAKE THE POINTS.

3* Houston +1 over New England

Revenge game for the Texans after that major playoff loss last year to Tom Brady and company.  Don't expect Brady to stay in for long so, I like our chances with Houston.  Remember, the home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the series.  Good Luck.

3* Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

First off, I now doubt would be more comfortable getting points here but, we'll take a shot with the Bucs 8-1 ATS on the road in game #2 of the NFLX season.  Further,  QB Winston has supposed play the first half with Fitz getting the majority of the work later.  Against NE last week the JAX defense surrendered 57+ yards at least in six of the offensive drives, JAX won 31-24.  This time around the Jaguars will be without RB Fournette.  Last year against the Bucs in the exhibition season, the Jags offense threw 4 interceptions.  Last week, Tampa Bay scored only 12 points against Cincinnati so, we expect a turnaround on the offensive end since it's game #2 with the Bucs looking for more consistency.  Good Luck.

5* LA (Hill) -1-1/2 Runs over San Diego (Richard) @ 10:10 Eastern

MLB RUNS LINE GOW...BDS

Huge number to lay but, must respect "current reality" Blue who have CRUSHED the Padres this season going 7-2 SU with a +43 run differential.  Now the Dodgers catch lefty Richard (5-12, 5.17) of SD which should be a great sign considering they show 27-10 vs. LHP L37 times out.  LA is ranked #2 in runs line editions this season with a 64-50 mark.  Lefty Hill hits the bump for the Dodgers, as the hurler has allowed only 8 earned runs in 36 innings of work since July 1st in 6 starts.  With Diego allowing around 5.6 runs per game on the road, carrying a .235 TBA, we'll take a ticket with LA to continue to their league domination.  Good Luck.

Happ has been throwing well this month, while Kluber has fallen off of late.  More important, the righty has helped the Blue Jays batting averages in the past.  TAKE 1-1/2 RUNS.  Good Luck.

4* (915) Chicago +1-1/2 Runs over Toronto

MLB Runs Line Edition…BDS

Both units playing mediocre baseball this season with Toronto 32-33 and Chicago 30-36.  In the series opener Friday, the Sox dismantled the Blue Jays 11-4.   So, you can understand the huge money line number looking for Toronto to rebound behind RHP Stroman (7-2, 3.09).  Chicago counters with veteran Pelfrey (2-5, 388) hitting the bump.  The hurler has thrown three times over the last week including a one-inning stint Wednesday against sagging Baltimore.  Recently, the Blue Jays have had their hitting attack falter in key situations with club 4-3 L7.  Injuries to Travis and Carrera have hurt the on-field rotation and hitting possibilities.  Chicago, though, is pounding the baseball with 6.4 runs a game L7.  At home, Toronto is averaging 4.2 runs per game, just 3.5 runs per game in day action.  No doubt Stroman is tough at home off a quality start with 86.2% effectiveness.  He is 7-0 last seven starts but, the hurler is 0-5 at home against the White Sox.  Further, the Toronto bullpen is carrying a 4.52 ERA at home this year which brings more doubt.  The White Sox have not played a one-run game since May 29th, however, they are 36-30 with that angle this season, and field a competitive bullpen in a road setting.  With Chicago 10-2 L12 against Toronto, we’ll take the runs line edition Saturday.  Good Luck.

10* (710) Golden State over Cleveland @ 9:00 Eastern

NBA Grand Slam Playoff Selection…BDS

Simply, right off game #5 last year saw Cleveland rebound to support their now mentioned miracle run and an NBA Championship.   However, in that 112-97 win by the Cavs neither Durant or Green were part of the equation.  Briefly, factor in two trends of minor interest, Cleveland plays Monday with a 17-35-2 ATS mark, while the Warriors show 5-1 ATS L6 Monday editions.  More important, the Cavs come in off a stunning game #4 beating of Golden State in Cleveland.   They out-shot the Warriors 72-33 from three range, and of course broke playoff records.  The Cavs scored 49 first quarter points and never looked back with the stellar play of guard Irving and Lord James.  Now Cleveland travels to the coast where they are 2-5 ATS.  Golden State performs back home with their egos smashed.  Considering Curry shot 4-of-13 from the field, the Warriors were in for a bad set. Kevin Durrant played a super game off a slow start.  Granted the mental edge, despite the site, is carried by Cleveland.  Still, must support Golden State with Durrant (who has never won a championship) and Green playing with their crowd support.  This should be a close war but, feel the Warriors bench will help solidify this important battle.  Covering the number might be doubtful until the 4th quarter when “Uncle Mo” shows up with the home crowd.  Golden State has covered 5 straight with two day’s rest, while bringing a 6-1 ATS off mark off an ATS loss.  Cleveland comes in 2-6 ATS after two days off.  

5* Portland+ over Golden State

Critical must win situation for the Blazers who accrued strong performances out of Dilliard and McCollumn in game #1 but, the combo faltered in game #2 and the Blazers were routed.  Golden State has the edge ATS in the series but, the Warriors are 5-12-2 ATS with 2 days of rest.  Portland comes 4-0 ATS on Saturday, 5-0 ATS at home against a road unit with a >.600 or more road winning mark.  With the Blazers 8-1 ATS at home, we look for a closer game and at least a cover for the frustrated Blazers.  Good Luck.

4* Houston (719) over OKC

Granted there are conflicting items of interest inside the numbers program.  However, must respect gutty Rockets who have simply more scoring answers on their side of the ledger in comparison to Westbrook and company.  Yes, the Rockets have played so-so on the road going 0-5 ATS.  Still, when matchup the Houston 5-0 ATS at OKC and 10-2 ATS series there is more to find positive with the visitor.  Remember, OKC maybe 28-13 SU at home but, they show 1-4 ATS L5 vs.

032917

CBB EASTERN EDGE TOURNEY GAME OF THE WEEK

5* FURMAN (525) over St. Peter’s @ 9:00 Eastern

Furman (23-11) travels to Jersey City, N.J., to take on the Saint Peter's Peacocks of the MAAC in the semifinal round of the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament on Wednesday night.
First off, we must respect the Paladins after beating Campbell fairly easily while tying a school record hitting the 23-game win mark. SPC game from an incredible deficit to defeat Texas State.  So, catching a home game for this critical battle is a major plus.  Overall, this seems a bigger game for the Peacocks who get a chance to show some MAAC prowess (under rated conference) against a unit who lost last year in this same tourney in their second game.  Each school finished 2nd in their conference, both obviously are on the mid-major scale. The major keys are the site, the offensive edges for the visitor who simply has more options than the pesky Peacocks.  So, when we starred down the Vegas early entry of -4 (bet down to -3) for SPC, we projected an overlay. But, make no mistake Jersey City is a looney place for a school that’s never been in that gym (3,200). SOS and RPI numbers favor Furman. From the technical standpoint, can’t help but note the Peacocks are 4-11 ATS vs. >.500 road club, 1-4 ATS if they have a winning percentage >.600.  Project this as a buzzer beater…TAKE THE POINTS.

032717

4* Coastal Carolina (744) over Wyoming 7:30 Eastern

Monday CBB Tourney Best Bet…BDS

Would normally ignore a unit like Wyoming (21-14) traveling to play a lesser known entity in Coastal Carolina (19-17) but, this has been a wacky post season in all tournaments so, the Pokes are in a dubious position considering this is a home game for the surprising CBI unit.   Coastal has put together solid wins in the tourney over Loyola, MD, Hampton and UIC.  On the other hand, Wyoming defeated E. Washington, UMKC and Utah Valley to garner a spot in the Championship series (best of three).  All those games were at home and now they must travel a distance to South Carolina.   This could be quite difficult as they have not been far from campus since February 28th.  Remember, the Pokes did not win back-to-back games in the MWC this season and now must go up against a home unit running a four-guard offense who can run.  Note, CC guard Jaylen Shaw has scored 22 points in each of the last four games if, he has a big night Coastal wins.  Also, I like the fact coach Ellis of Coastal Carolina is a former SEC mentor and is familiar with bigger and sometimes more athletic foes on a consistent basis, his preparation is key.  The Chanticleers come with some technical goodies going 10-1-2 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS at home versus a poor traveling units booking under a .400 win/loss record.  TAKE COASTAL CAROLINA!