5* CAL+ (385) over Stanford @ 10:30 Eastern Saturday
Interesting, the Cardinal had run an 8-0 record before falling to Oregon last week on this same field.  QB Hogan fumbled twice in the 4th quarter crushing Stanford's hopes of ever sliding into the College Playoffs.  Do you think the Cardinal maybe a little down in the first-half, at least?   Okay, Stanford (8-2) has won 5 straight in the series, and shows 4-1 ATS L5 meetings.  We add Cal coach Dykes is 0-11 SU vs. Stanford, USC, UCLA and Oregon. He can't beat the Big Boys!  Stanford has the edge on defense close to 7 points per game better, while the units have similar scoring numbers.  Stanford has AA RB McCaffrey the go to guy when the game is on the line.  No matter what the stats say, the Bears will rely on QB Goff to throw the ball down the field.  He crippled Cal last year in their 38-17 loss to Stanford with 2 INTs.  But, there is a huge sticking point for the Cardinal, they have COLLEGE PLAYOFF BOUND Notre Dame next....It's a revenge game for the STANFORD!  Over the last 10 years before playing ND, the Cardinal is 3-7 ATS.  And, remember Cal is 7-of-10 ATS on the road.

Play on: 10* Virginia Tech+ over UNC

ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Before the public chews up Beamer Ball value early, I'll step out calling for the outright upset despite the Tar Heels being the more talented unit overall.  UNC on a 9-0 perfect run 9-1 this season 6-0 in conference, while the Hokies show 5-5 overall, 3-3 in conference, winners of BB games, the last our ACC GOY on Thursday.  Where the Heels made money this season is in their + turnover ratio, however, the EMOTIONAL EDGE this time is all Hokies as they play at home. In 8-of-10 games in the series the Hokies have been the chalk, now their +6-1/2 which is a clear indicator of a talent edge, but it appears the numbers is TOO HIGH!  Virginia Tech has covered back-to-back games in the series, and with such a drastic line adjustment from the last two season...TAKE THE POINTS!

7:35 Eastern

709/710

Play on:  5* Charlotte over New York (NBA)

Since the Knicks are at home would love to be back the Garden here, but favor the Hornets with the techs allowing for outstanding data, and the fact Charlotte does not kill themselves via the turnover as does the New Yorkers. In addition, road unit has covered 5 straight in the series, while the Hornets love playing in the Garden taking the money the last 6-of-7.  From the fundamental standpoint Carmelo has been hot lately averaging almost 27 a game L6 times, while the Hornets rebound margin has really peeled off of late…Normally, this would not be a good sign. Lamb, Zeller, Williams, Hariston are all expected to see playing time tonight for Charlotte, however, which cause some match-up problems for NYK…Try and buy this at a PICK!

10* Virginia Tech + over Georgia Tech @ 7:30 Eastern

One it comes to big games during the college football season, I use certain coaches as a starting point in the subject game analysis. Here we have suffering Georgia Tech losers of the last 6/7 on the schedule looking to take out a hated rival at home in VPI.  Unfortunately, for their backers the Vegas Strip has the Engineers as a -3 or -3-1/2 point chalk.  No matter, when I’ve used Beamer Ball in the past, 100% of the time it’s when they are accruing points.  The key here again for Beamer is the VTech defense which is holding units under 25 ppg. If they can limit the GTech vaunted Triple Option to around 170-180 yards on the ground, they win this SU.  Remember too, this is coach Beamer’s last go around vs. Georgia Tech with this retirement coming at the end of the season. Also, last season Georgia Tech won in a nail bitter 27-24, but the series has given rise to opponent wins alternating year-to-year dating back to 2006.  Technicals have the series road unit 5-0 ATS, the underdog 8-1 ATS…BEAMER!

(474) 10* San Diego -4, not higher...over Chicago

The Chargers return home after a 3-point road loss to the Baltimore Ravens back on November 1st.  The last time they played on Monday Night was back on October 12th here, losing 24-20 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Overall HC Mike McCoy’s unit shows up 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS.  The Chicago Bears travel to the west coast after losing at home to the Minnesota Vikings on November 1st.  They are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS this season.  They have recent losing numbers ATS in the month of November, and the Vikings loss should bring a letdown despite the MN lights and the travel.  Plus, defensively they are allowing almost 29 points per game.  Chicago shows 8-16 ATS as an underdog and 9-14-1 ATS in non-division games.  This is the first Monday edition for the Bears in 2015.  During the last ten years the series is 1-1 SU & ATS.  San Diego has dropped four straight to Baltimore, Oakland, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, so they will be sky high for a chance to break their deficit run and show 5-0 SU vs. the NFC and 3-1 ATS at home on MNF.  Granted WR Allen is out and the OL is being restructured, but this will only heighten the determination of QB Rivers who has helped pull the Chargers together in past losing runs.  Without RB Forte in the game, the Bears running attack has suffered….Look for a high scoring game San Diego 37-29.

3* Pittsburgh -5-1/2 over Oakland

Tried to play this using the money line on this site, but could not acquire same. This is the reason for the moderate valuation of the Steelers chances of covering the subject number vs. traveling Oakland. The Raiders smashed the Jets last week as I and all the system players hit the highway.  NY was just not ready for the ball position of Oakland!  Here the situation is reversed as now the under valued Raiders travel east to facing a unit that is 4-4 SU in a division chasing the 8-0 Bengals. To say this is a 'MUST WIN' for Pittsburgh is an under statement!  Last time out Big Ben and company dropped a horrid 16-10 encounter to...CINCY.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS after Cincinnati and 4-1 ATS vs. West coast unit at home during the regular season. The Raiders come in 4-12-1 ATS off a SU win.  With Pittsburgh at home and in rebound mode, we will back the STEEL CITY GANG!

10* MINNESOTA -1 over St. Louis @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL TOP PLAY SUNDAY...BDS

Don't forget our top play Monday Night in the NFL. We are hitting 64% in the league.  Today the Rams travel to Minny in a "must win" situation as they show two games behind Arizona in the division. The Vikings 5-2 SU are just one game behind the Packers.  Again last week the Vikings did the job running the football for 147 yards on the road vs. Chicago. Knowing HC Fisher of the Rams quite well, look for the defense to stack the box tyring stop that edge.  This will allow QB Bridgewater more time and openings for the passing game...Offensively, the Rams can never win big games consistently unitl QB Foles starts hitting over 200 passing taking pressure off the running game.  STL won 27-6 last week over disoriented SF, and the public has bought in buying us real value that is on a 5-0 SU perfect run at home, 6-0 ATS in the same building. Until Foles proves us wrong...MINNESOTA!

(359) 5* PENN STATE +3 over Northwestern @ 12:00 Eastern

After watching the Nits (7-2) demolished the Illini last week, I am still in shock.  No, there is no over estimation inside this game analysis as we believe Penn State has taken a huge step forward in their season.  Now they must travel to Evanston to face the ‘Cats (6-2) who were much heralded earlier this season.  We know Northwestern is coming off a bye week (0-4 ATS) which helps their cause physically, but Penn State has solid SU history versus the Wildcats over the last ten years going 6-1 SU and 3-0 SU on the road. Last year Northwestern won 29-6 at Penn State.  The key was shutting down the running game…50 yards on the day.  Here the Lions will need to pressure young ‘Cats QB Thorson who has demonstrated major issues with accuracy…so, if the Nits “D” wins out on 3rd down, they cash a SU and ATS ticket.  Note, buy 1/2 point to secure the deal, no matter Penn State should win SU.

Play:  4* Missouri +8 (316) over Mississippi State @ 9:00 Eastern

What has happened to Missouri who finished 11-3 in 2014?  The Tigers returned 46 letters 6 starters on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.  They show 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS with one quality win 24-10 over crumpling South Carolina with their coach retiring in mid-season.  Against Florida, Georgia and Vandy their last three games, they have scored 3, 6 and 3 to be exact!  No matter, this game is a nationally televised event and Missouri would not like to be hacked again by a conference opponent.  For further assistance we can look to the gusty wet weather expected tonight.  Plus, this is a look ahead game for the Bulldogs who have Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss on-deck to complete the season.  Coach Mullen’s unit is just 2-2 in the West winning three straight games vs. Troy, Louisiana Tech and Kentucky.   Mississippi State has never been a good road unit going 23-32 SU the last 10+ seasons, including 2-1 this year with wins over Southern Miss and Auburn.  With QB Mauk out for the Tigers, the defense of coach Pinkel will need to play a great game to keep QB Prescott in check.  Plus the Tigers have solid defensive ends to help pressure the QB.  Technically, we have Mizzou in good shape at 8-0 ATS in November, 4-1 ATS off a bye. Plus, the Tigers have a long-term 58-28-1 ATS record after a loss.  MSU is 1-4 ATS L5 and 2-8 ATS in Thursday events.

4* Baylor -17...not higher over Kansas State @ 7:30 Eastern

CFB BLOWOUT ALERT

BDS

Even without QB Russell the Bears are far the superior unit.  My early season voting listed Baylor as the #1 team in the country. No matter, here they should handle the Wildcats in Manhattan. This is a KSU unit that finished last year that finished 9-4 losing 38-27 at Baylor to end the season as a 7+ underdog. They returned just 6 letters both on offense and defense, but their 3-4 SU/ATS. Coach Snyder will have the troops sky high, but we doubt they will come close, especially with the young stud QB of Baylor throwing down the field on most downs which plays into the #93 ranking in passing defense efficiency of Kansas State.  In addition, the Wildcats are banged up physically. Bayor is just 1-4 ATS here, but 4-1 ATS in conference. More importantly, the Wildcats are a depressed unit this season and have yet to beat a quality unit losing 23-9 last week to Texas, and the prior week 55-0 to OU.

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Play on: 5* Vanderbilt+ (167) over Houston @ 7:00 Eastern

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Last week nationally our SEC games went 3-1 vs. the number, including our 5* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Louisiana State over the total.  First off, the Cougars have a conference look ahead game next week with Cincinnati, in fact, DOUBLE REVENGE.   Houston is undefeated 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS with key wins over Louisville and Tulsa.  They are now on a 21-9-1 ATS monster run on the Strip!  Vanderbilt is 3-4 SU, but a real nice 5-2 ATS coming off a SU/ATS win over Missouri 10-3 in Tennessee with a QB change. Realize this is a road game, but the Commies have covered at Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State this season.  Feel we are looking at a flat spot for the Cougars who show off a massive offensive showing (600+ yards and 59 points) vs. lesser UCF.  Remember Vandy is an SEC unit that plays defense for 4 quarters and will not quit, no matter the score…As a road underdog the Commies are a super 11-4 ATS, and 14-6 ATS L3 years on the road overall…TAKE THE POINTS QUICKLY!

10* GEORGIA +3 over Florida

SEC GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

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Play on: 4* West Virginia (111) +14 over TCU @ 7:30 Eastern

At face value the public domain will be backing the home based Horned Frogs 7-0 SU, but just 3-4 ATS over struggling West Virginia.  The Mounties visit 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS playing into an exceptional SOS, losers of three straight to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor all 20-1 SU.  Okay, TCU is of the elk, especially when QB Boykin is on fire, but I like the fact the Mounties have had rest (but, so has TCU).  However, the visitor needed the break more…considering all the facts and circumstances. The world knows WVA is 1-10 ATS with rest, but this is a “must win” situation for the Mounties to accrue a possible bowl bid. And, when you look back at the last three games in the series, 39-38, 27-30 and 31-30 were the final scores. Understand Horned Frogs have home, talent and tech edges, but they are 2-5 ATS after a +20 point win, and they will face a unit that has taken them to the wire last three times out...CLOSE!

4* Cleveland +5-1/2 over Memphis @ 8:05 Eastern

NBA REVERSE ANGLE

BDS

Last night Cleveland made a game of it dropping behind 26-17 after the first quarter, then out scoring Chicago on the road in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters losing by a bucket in the end, but taking home the cash.  Now with that type finish, and then traveling to Memphis I'm sure we'll see more public money this time on the Grizz.  Last night Lebron played a surprising 36 minutes knocking down 25 points. Despite some advantages afforded Memphis, and the Cavs just 2-5 ATS in BB traveling. We have to note Cleveland is 13-3 ATS in the series, 4-1 ATS in this building. Realize G Conley causes problems on the perimeter and the Memphis front line is formidable, but the Cavs should have won last night and will not want to start 0-2.  Would have like the +6 too, but will take a shot with the current position.

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Play on: 4*  Washington over Orlando @ 7: 05 Eastern

Washington won all four games in the series last season by an average of 7 points per game, splitting vs. the number.  Laying single digits they were 1-2 ATS, on the road 1-1 ATS. On the road last year Washington was 17-24 SU, while Orlando a horrid 13-28 SU at home.  In our “early” preseason rankings based on adds and subtracts from the talent standpoint, we have Washington with a huge edge considering their small-balling in the post season.  In fact, despite losing three straight to Atlanta in the playoffs and being knocked out. Inside their 10 game post season experience Washington ran up 7 ATS wins.  Hey I’m on board with their recent current reality.  Granted HC Skiles will have the Magic revived after the unit their last 5 SU in preseason, but much prefer the “reasonable” line and the Wizards who will not play short in this initial road setting. Washington is 10-4-1 ATS in the series, while Orlando is 3-7 ATS vs. an Eastern Conference foe.

Play on: (350) 4* Alabama over Tennessee @ 3:30 Eastern

SEC OUTLAW MOVE

Here is another beauty in the SEC as we have the thundering Crimson Tide coming in 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS after swamping A&M on the road 41-23 via defensive touchdowns. The Vols show 3-3 both SU & ATS after winning over Georgia 38-31 down in Knoxville.  But, note the Chubb injury was the center point in the cause and effect.  Important, Alabama is more dominate at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which eventually will decide the outcome here.  If you look back at the Alabama and Arkansas game, the Hogs covered the +16.   The current number has ‘Bama laying -15-1/2 (should come down), but I don’t see that as a risk with Alabama starting to play at a higher level and Tennessee regressing.  Key:  Tennessee is ranked No. 19 rushing the football, but they will have to contend with the #3 rated rush defense in Alabama holding the opposition to 70.9 yards per game.  Overall, look for Alabama to stifle the Tennessee attack as this home game will be a huge party for HC Nick Saban before a week of rest and LSU.  Technically, Alabama closes with a perfect 5-0 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS win, then going up against an opponent with a revenge. Plus, the Tide are 8-2 ATS in the series.

5* Wake Forest** +9-1/2 or +10, over NC State

**Note, try to have +10, buying a 1/2-point if possible. 

The Demon Deacons (3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS) finally collapsed last week as they were crushed by UNC 50-14.  Prior Wake had defeated Army by 3 on the road, lost by 7 at Indiana, lost by 8 at Florida State, and then won at Boston College 3-0 before their downer vs. the Tar Heels.  No matter, these kids play their hearts out every week, just fell behind last week and could'nt respond.  Here they show at home as a DD underdog vs. North Carolina State (4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS) who have lost BB games to Louisville and Virginia Tech...Their 4 wins were against lesser types...Here they do have the talent advantage despite the road setting, but Wake will bounce back EMOTIONALLY, and play a great game, maybe not winning...CASHING YES! Remember, the home team is 14-2 ATS in the series, while the Pack is a PERFECT 0-9 ATS at Wake....WAKE 5-1 ATS at home this season!

Play on: (392) 4* Arkansas -5-1/2 over Auburn @ 12: 00 Eastern

SEC NO DOUBT ABOUT IT

Auburn comes into Hogville 4-2 SU, but just 1-5 ATS after winning and covering vs. Kentucky last week as projected in these pages.  Aspiring Arkansas is 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS after losing to ‘Bama two weeks ago 27-14 in Tuscaloosa.  Aubie’s key wins this season were vs. Louisville and Kentucky.  Arkansas important win thus far was as a road dog vs. Tennessee 24-20…Then the following week played (at) Alabama quite aggressively but, falling 27-14 taking home the cash.  Arkansas is off a bye and play in a great DOUBLE REVENGE situation.  Auburn has defeated Arkansas by 80-38 in those two games. No doubt the emergence of QB White for Auburn has the offensive unit with an aggressive mindset entering Saturday.  Still, when you review the stats from the Kentucky game, you will note the Auburn defense gave up almost 500 yards of total offense.   Remember the ‘Hogs are 7-0 ATS as a chalk playing into revenge situation when laying

312...10* TULSA +10-1/2 over Memphis...First off, the line is a gift at the aforementioned price. As you may know, totals in the 70's allows us an insight into an offensive battle between these two AAC schools. The reason for the over inflated point spread is the Tigers SU win last week over Ole Miss. Go ahead leap! Also, Memphis for some reason has never played well vs. the number on Friday going 1-5-1 ATS. In the series they are 1-5 ATS, while the offensive Tulsa unit is a sparkling 17-5 ATS vs. a >.500 road team. When you apply the LETDOWN THEORY on a short week, our selection becomes more glaring..Good Luck, and thank you all!

4* NY Giants +4 nothing less...over Philadelphia @ 8:30 Eastern

Yesterday our 10* late move was right on as we waited for the LB starters for Seattle before making a play.  With their MLB being out the run chase and read went south for the home standing Seahawks. You see, the Panthers were outstanding on 3rd down running the football, eventually allowing for their passing attack to take home the cash at the end.  Our other selections losers no less, Arizona OVER, the Cardinals were on the Steerlers nine yard line with under a minute and could have generated a nice back door for us...not so, as all day the Steelers stifled their running game forcing QB Palmer in difficult down and distance situations.  The Buffalo call, was a bad beat for sure, the 'Cats really do show like a prime edition this football season.

Tonight, we are uning the Giants plus the points, knowing the line dropped from +5-1/2.  Not excited by the change in value, but the latest is #13 will play for the Giants. No matter this is a division game and when Philly and NYG come together it is a war!  The Giants are 8-1 ATS vs. the NFC team with a losing record and 8-1 ATS as an NFC East unit off off a SU victory.  You might note that NYG is double revenge...NYG!

5* (254) Buffalo +3-1/2 over Cincinnati (A)

NFL: 8-1-1 ATS...NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Bengals were in a similar situation last week laying -3 to talented Seattle surviving in OT 27-24. We note, the Sea Chickens were afforded a fumble recovery for a TD close to the Bengals goal line, which the game in balance for the visitor. This is desperation game for HC Rex Ryan who plotted through five games with a 3-2 mark (2-3 ATS). The wins were against hapless Miami (R), Tennessee (R) and Indianapolis in week #1...27-14 on this same field as a +1-1/2 underdog. The Bills led 24-0 in the third quarter and then coasted to a huge win. The Bills held Indy to 64 yards rushing generated by the big lead and QB Luck, but the Colts supplied three key turnovers. So, my suggestion here is that Bills need to jump in early and secure the lead and emotional props which comes from playing in from of their rabid home fans.

Cincinnati comes in 5-0 SU mark 4-0-1 ATS. Their only game booked as an underdog was against the forgiving defense of Baltimore (+2) in 28-24 in Grab Town. The Bengals have defeated 2-3 Oakland, 2-3 San Diego, 1-4 Baltimore, 1-4 KC and 2-3 Seattle...not "one" winning team. Granted the Bengals are #1 in total offense...29.6 ppg. Recall, since 2013 the Bills defense leads the NFL in sacks and interceptions....and they improved their DVOA numbers ranked #10 this week with the Bengals #14...If the Buffalo defense disallows the big play, the Bills win this SU. The defensive deficiencies against the rush can be altered by TOP from the offense unit with RB McCoy and the more mobile E. J. Manuel at QB...No matter, even if Taylor runs the show the Bills will be highly jacked.

There a few old tech systems play into Buffalo. But, more important the Bengals who are 0-5 ATS as road chalk laying 3 or more, should fall to the emotional Bills and a celebratory crowd. Good Luck.

Play on: 10* (163) Nebraska +3 over Minnesota @ 3:30 Eastern

Without question the hard luck 'Huskers have earned their stars this season losing games in the last minute. Minnesota last week crushed Purdue as they Gophers went back to the running game, but they are reall banged up. Minnesota is 4-2 SU, Nebraska 2-4 SU. Our math line has Nebraska still rated as a -2-1/2 or -3 value over the Gophers, and that includes the site...NOW WE'RE CATCHING THREE! Also, Minnesota is a perfect 0-6 ATS after Purdue, and this comes full circle considering the game last week was a BLOWOUT...'HUSKERS WIN SU!

10* LOUISIANA TECH+ over Mississippi StateT

This is a play against  MSU more than anything, considering their off an easy 45-17 win over non-conference Troy, and now play another n/c battle vs. La. Tech. Believe if a team is going to be flat it should be Dak and company considering they must play 5 straight SEC games after this encounter.  I don't care what the techs an systems say...THIS IS A CLASSIC LETDOWN! GOOD LUCK.

(109) 5* UCLA +7 over Stanford @ 10:30 Eastern

CFB KNEE-JERK GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

The line opened Sunday night Stanford -4-1/2 it now reached -7 at the famous Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas.  I’ll start by saying I am going against one of my favorite teams this season Stanford (#15) who simply look to take advantage of the oppositions miscues.  The Cardinal is 4-1 this season with a 3-0 record in conference, opposing UCLA (#18) is too 4-1, but carrying a 1-1 record in the PAC-12 losing 38-23 to Arizona State last time out!  Remember, the Bruins lost Jack have injuries on their defensive front. But, with a week of rest coach Mora should have his unit ready to go to the farm and win SU.

History has illustrated HC Jimmy Mora of UCLA has struggled versus Stanford, and his issue tonight stopping the run.  Going back and personally recalling the crushing blow the Cardinal laid on the Bruins in the 2012 Conference Championship game, and then last years “punch in the gut win” in the last game of the season costing Mora and the school.  I can see an extended effort by UCLA looking to play their best game of the season. Remember this is a HUGE REVENGE GAME for UCLA (0-7), not defeating Stanford since 2007.  Key will be stopping RB McCaffrey who is more explosive than his counterparts allowing TOP domination for Stanford.  The attack is balanced with short and medium range passing. The Cardinal has won 24 straight at night at home, but that does not ensure taking home the cash.

Key…UCLA needs to get on the score board first, and then apply aggressive defensive tactics to mitigate the Cardinal “ball control” offense.  Mora has told the press and the alumni “they (UCLA) will be prepared.”  Granted Stanford is 6-1 ATS in the series, but the Bruins a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after a bye week! What could slow Stanford emotionally is their huge win last time in excess of 20. In that role they show 3-8 ATS. 

(103) 4* Atlanta -3-1/2…buy ½ point, if possible… over New Orleans @ 8:25 Eastern

If it wasn’t for the Julio Jones hamstring this would be a 5* GAME OF THE WEEK type angle, but considering the overall picture the Falcons are the play.  Atlanta is one of the 6 NFL teams that is undefeated (5-0), but we note the wins have come against the “legion” of the NFL East.  In addition, they show 4-1 ATS.  Home standing New Orleans is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS after being waxed by the upstart Eagles in Philadelphia last weekend.  Some critical fundamental stats to remember, Atlanta is ranked #3 in total offense with a 32.4 point average.  Defensively, the Saints are rated #30 vs. the rush allowing on average 136 yards per.  Interesting RB Freeman is back in the lineup for the Falcons.  Atlanta is 2-0 SU on the road this year, 5-0 ATS L5 Thursday games.  Although the home team is 6-1 ATS in the series, the Falcons have dominated lately going 4-1 ATS.

(107) 4* Auburn -1-1/2 over Kentucky @ 7:30 Eastern

Okay, let’s get the main issue out of the way, the War Eagle is on an 2-13 ATS roll.  However, Auburn has dominated the series last losing to Kentucky in 2009 in game they showed real flat after losing a real downer to Arkansas.   Auburn had won 5 straight before the Arkansas game.  By the way, in 2010 Aubie won the national championship.  Auburn has won the last two SU at Kentucky, and we note the short price.  Further, the Wildcats when in similar situation earlier this season at home versus Florida, lost 14-9.  Granted the talent differential favors Fla.  Kentucky just missed being upset 34-27 vs. E. Kentucky who is not so talented….letdown(?) probably!  But, can’t turn it off and on in the SEC, and here is another must win situation for KU.  The ‘Cats did beat South Carolina 26-22 on the road this season, but SC was confused on defense. Remember, this season Auburn has played a more difficult schedule beating Louisville 31-24 and Jacksonville State 27-20 in overtime. Then the War Eagle visited Baton Rouge losing to LSU 45-21.  Then Auburn lost to Mississippi State 17-9 and beat San Jose State 32-21 at Jordan-Hare.  Realizing all the injuries, I have to believe the LSU game really hurt psyche of the football team.  This is great chance being on the road vs. QB Towles and company to recoil the season.  Kentucky has not played a strong schedule, now knowing Missouri was over rated since day #1 of the season and South Carolina a no show.  We close with Kentucky entering 8-19-1 ATS in the SEC...Aubie 26-20

10* Air Force over Wyoming

CFB PAY BACK GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS...ANALYSIS TO FOLLOW!

UTAH -7-1/2, suggest buy 1/2 point to lay -7 over Cal

CFB GAME OF THE WEEK..BDS

In this encounter we catch highly ranked Utah (I have them in my top-five) vs. ranked Cal who is #22nd naitonally...Utah is actually #7.  Still, the key here the home team has covered 4/5 in the series, while UTAH is carrying a critical 35-5 ATS mark off a bye week. To play this up scale offense from Berkley you need additional rest and preparation time, so be it!  Further, Utah has a much more balanced attack that's faced a plus SOS with one that can run and pass with QB Wilson who can not only pass, but can accrue yardage in key third down situations. Much like Wilson of the Seahawks! Don't laugh...Interesting based on SOS level of units value the Utah rush attack should have huge success overall controlling the tempo versus the Cal front seven, the Utah defense will need to blitz more to challenge the effective air attack of Cal who did a great job in upsetting Washington (who just beat USC last night).  For sure, you will see the quicker Utah defensive front take away the Bears running attack, so look for more difficult down and distance situations for their offense!

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Play on: 10* Miami Florida (371) +7-1/2 over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern

CFB UPSET ALERT

First off, this game has been moved to a night affair to suit the BOOB TUBE crowd!  More important we love the ‘Canes in this local rivalry, especially considering the injuries surrounding FSU.  Soph RB Dalvin Cook of FSU ran for over 1,000 yards last year, but is currently nursing a hamstring injury.  He is the key to winning the football game for the Sems considering QB Golson is not having a Notre Dame season.  If you need proof just check out their 3rd down conversion rating (#126).  So, if the Miami defense can bounce back from the Bearcat disaster they have a great shot at winning the football game.  Also, going back, the series historically has been defined by close football games.    Last year the Sems won 30-26 in 2011, MU won 23-19 and 2009, the Canes won out 38-34  in 2008 the Sems won 41-39 in 2007…HISTORY, HISTORY!  By the way, the UNDERDOG is on an 8-2 ATS run L10 years. Finally, the SEMS are 1-6 ATS off a SU win.

LATE MONEY MOVE

10* NORTHWESTERN +7-1/2 over Michigan

CFB FALSE FAVORITE GOY

BJC

If this game was not played in Ann Arbor, and I mean anywhere else you would have a dead "even" game. I simply believe the lines makers are making you pay for the "Harbaugh" experience. Look how closely rated the two defenses are overall? Northwestern has the more effective QB, and will not be phased by the road set.  Remember, the underdog is almost perfect in the series at 6-1 ATS and Michigan is 4-11 ATS after a win of 20+ points.  Good Luck!

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Play on: 4* (339) Virginia +10-1/2 over Pittsburgh 12:30 Eastern

I started kicking this game around for the Wise Guys’ contest Sunday night, but I had to let go of the mindset when I realized injuries are inside the game.  Further, Pittsburgh shows 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS, while the Cavs are 1-3 SU AND 1-2-1 ATS with a push no less vs. UCLA in game #1 of the season down in Chalottesville. Remember the Cavs brought back just 11 starters, highly talented Bruins showed with 18 RS…Pittsburgh has 16, but that came from a 6-7 season in 2014, while losing to Virginia 24-19.   SOS here favors the visiting Cavs having played Boise State, Notre Dame and UCLA, and of course William & Mary their only gift.   Granted coach Narduzzi has done a great job in Pittsburgh…Mike London down in Virginia gets little respect because of the scheduling, last year the Cavs dropped 5 games by

3* (307) Southern Miss +3-1/2 over Marshall
CFB FRIDAY APPRECIATION
BDS
Based on our strength system and power ratings this encounter is actually a PICK situation. Instead the game was opened by the lines makers and on going the value in the set has been reduced by the sports betting community. Therefore, we are recommending a lighter play with some discipline, and so you must ensure you have at least +3 in the game. Good Luck!

5* Cleveland +7-1/2 over San Diego

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow!

10* NYG+ 5-1/2 or +6 vs. Buffalo @ 1:00 Eastern

NFL EASTERN EDGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

This is critical and please note, if you can buy 1/2 point, please do so as soon as possible. No matter this play stands at +5-1/2 as a TOP PLAY. In this situation we have the developing Giants who are just 1-2 SU on the season vs. the 2-1 Bills. In our updated power ratings the Bills do have an edge over the Giants currently because of their #1 rushing offense.  But, I believe in SU talent the Giants are dead even with QB Eli Manning giving NY a clear differential.  Buffalo is technically void at 7-19-1 ATS off a SU win, while the Giants are 29-13-2 ATS in October. With the overlay feel we have a HUGE EDGE with NYG and to me it is quite obvious...NYG!

4* Washington+ over Philadelphia

NFL UPSET ALERT

BDS

Note...We may have another game later on this morning, right now this is our third selection with the 10* GOY and 5* GOW...Good Luck, and thank you all.

10* UL-MONROE over GS

Our power ratings have this virturally a dead even game, because of SOS.  The extreme has been the opponents ULM has faced but, now they come down physically to an opponent on their level, and they show in MAJOR REVENGE losing a heart breaker last season...WIRE JOB!

10* Arkansas+ over Tennessee

The Vols are coming off a rough last second loss to Florida once again in dramatic fashion. How can they possibly respond in a quality manner? I have respect for their coach, but "B" is behind the "8" ball in 'Hog country and actually needs this win more than the aforementioned after losing three straight games.  Remember Arkansas is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS after BB SU losses vs. a unit with under a 67% winning margin...WIRE JOB!

10* LOUISVILLE +4 over NCS

SOS TOP PLAY ALERT

BDS

Clearly our favorite SOS angle for Saturday as we have a highly comeptitive Cardinal unit lacking in the win column and getting no respect from lines makers, despite their difficult schedule. Lost some highly talented people from the '14 squad but, remain talent and aggressive. Here they catch the UNDERDOG role and we weather to support their case. Plus NCS is in the midst of a traveling issue with Tech up on the 9th...TAKE THE POINTS!

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Play on:  5* Pittsburgh+ (139) over Virginia Tech @ 12:00 Eastern

Cool with rain and thunderstorms are expected down in Blacksburg Saturday afternoon.  Although this scenario normally benefits the home team, I like what Pitt has done with the change at Quarterback and the leadership of first year coach Pat Narduzzi…The HC was a defensive guru at Michigan State and you can see by the early results that the Spartans have felt is loss.  In the series the Panthers have a sharp 7-1 ATS mark.  The Panthers are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS this season losing a road heart breaker at Iowa 27-24 back on September 19th…They do have a huge edge here off a week of rest to straighten out some of their offensive changes.  Statistically as far as total team, offensive and defensive efficiency they are ahead of Virginia Tech and improving, while Tech has regressed for their performance in a loss (28-35) to East Carolina last week on the road.  The Hokies, though, formidable show 0-10 ATS as a chalk when laying -3 or higher in a revenge situation (16-21…2014) off a SU loss.  This is one of those classic ACC showdown games with much on the line that I believe will insure a FG game either way…TAKE THE POINTS!

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5* Oklahoma (136) -6-1/2 over West Virginia @ 12:00 Eastern

Was hoping we would accrue more line value on Friday as some public money has showed up this week on the 3-0 Mounties.  That is the 3-0 West Virginia unit who has defeated Georgia Southern, Liberty and  a shaky Maryland unit that returned only 4 starters to their defense. With a more experienced unit the Maryland defense shelled out over 30 points per game defensively in 2014.   No doubt WVA has played the Sooners tough lately, and carrying a solid 12-6 ATS mark as a road puppy of late.  Oklahoma has a huge edge coming off a week of rest with 13 RS in the till, including 12-13 first or second team key players in the Big-12, more natural talent than pesky West Virginia. The Sooners averaged 36+ plus points per game last year, and have a real test this year vs. SEC Tennessee winning on the road in 2OT 31-24.  A character win, the Mounties have none!  OU is 9-4 ATS in the second of true BB home games, while West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their 4th game of the season and 5-11 ATS in conference.  

4* (107) Temple over UNC-Charlotte @ 7:00 Eastern

The Owls shows 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS…defeating Penn State, Cincinnati and the lesser UMass.  Learning FBS unit UNCC shows 2-2 SU, 1-2 ATS defeating Georgia State and Presbyterian (FCS), while being crushed by North Teas State and falling to Florida Atlantic.   The line has fluctuated between -23-1/2 and -24-1/2 this week.  The Owls last played on September 19th (UMass) winning 25-23 in a come from behind heart breaker for the Minutemen.  We note, Temple played their worst game of the year, flat to say the least through the majority of the game and QB Walker threw two INTs which hurt offensive opportunities.  UNCC has played one more game than Temple but, have a lower echelon power rating in college football, while the Owls have played a vastly more difficult schedule with Penn State and Cincinnati as key combatants. From the fundamental statistical standpoint, both offenses have 40% effectiveness.  Scoring defense has the Owls ranked #39 nationally…19.7 points per game.  UNCC  is allowing 30 points per game.  I’ve mentioned these critical numbers considering the SOS that heavily favors Temple…we have at 21.0 points in strength.  Despite QB Walker’s miscues vs. UMass he did throw for almost 400 yards.  And coach Rhule has been working on certain strength patterns for this game…but, it may not matter as the Owls running game should have a huge night, especially with rain predicted for the encounter.  Remember, Temple has a nice edge in weight at the line of scrimmage and their overall program experience should create a solid win.  The spread is prohibitive and the Owls have not been in this road position the last ten years, but the talent and game experience (19 RS) bring us to a solid conclusion.  Temple 34 UNCC 7…This is considering wet weather!

3* Cincinnati+ over Miami Fla. @ 7:30 Eastern

Here is another game close to the East coast which is projecting some rain, about 15% at our latest review.  You should take weather as a major consideration for games back east through Sunday.  The 'Canes do have an edge here with rest playing last on September 19th vs. Nebraska down in Sun Life Stadium winning 36-33 in OT. But, I do like the Bearcats who are 0-6 ATS in the most recent series, they've only played once over the last ten years (LY: 34-55). They show off BB road games, bringing a super ATS marker of 5-0 as an underdog after surrendering over 35 points in their last game...lost 53-46 at Memphis covering, however.  Last year on this same field Memphis beat the Bearcats 41-14, so there is improvement.  Cincy is 6-4-1 ATS off BB road games and 9-6 ATS at home sandwiched between road stints...CINCINNATI!

10* Tennessee over Indianapolis

Note, we are updating the NFL earlier this week because of injury update...QB Mariota appears to be 100%...update later on Saturday...Good Luck.

10* VANDERBILT+ over Ole Miss

SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

Not afraid to go against the Rebels here, especially considering they have Florida up next on the schedule.  Remember Ole Miss upset Alabama last 43-37 in Tuscaloosa as an 8-1/2 point underdog. There were some incredible cirumstances, including turnovers which served the Rebs well.  However, they enter a true dead spot Saturday, and will be lacking the energy to advance up and down the field consistently...considering there were around 100 plays ran last time out.  Last year Vandy was CRUSHED by Ole Miss 41-3...but, the Commies have 18 RS now that will surely be ready to fire off against a unit "expecting" to win...TAKE THE POINTS as the Commies are 7-1 ATS in Mississippi!

5* Rutgers over Kansas

No doubt the Scarlet Knights have had off field issues again, this time prior to the Norfolk State opener.  But, the table is set Saturday for a HUGE win at home over suffering Kansas who is 2-9 ATS vs. N/C foes and 6-15-1 ATS in a road setting.  Remember this is a KU unit that is 9-39 SU, losers of 30 straight road games.  They have just 7 starters back, losing 55-23 to Memphis and 41-38 to FCS NDS....Overall, Rutgers passing game should rip the secondary of Kansas.  Plus the Jayhawks have a faulty (#116) special teams unit which should allow the Knights a break or two for key field position...MUST WIN FOR RUTGERS!

3* Oregon State+ over Stanford

Just can't make this a huge play on this encounter because of my personal appreciation of the Cardinal program, and especially this surprising football team.  In addition, this is the second of back-to-back road conference games with a short week...Always the home team has some advantage in preparation time.  But this situation has added props as Stanford has Arizona next week. Stanford 2-1 SU losing to well coached NW in week #1 on the road, but have bounced back vs. UCF and USC as we predicted last week as a SU UNDERDOG winner.  They have 13 starters returning, but just 4 defensively. Oregon State coming off a 5-7 season brings 10 RS. Did win 35-21 last week over San Jose State so will be arriving in a positive mind set....considering the Stanford series edge. What I like mostly here is the LETDOWN THEORY knowing SU has 'Zona next.  Please note, Stanford is a perfect 0-5 ATS as a chalk laying -3 or higher coming off a SU underdog win....With so much emotion expended last time, I'll back the Beavers to keep this close.  Good Luck!

5* Indianapolis -6-1/2 over NY Jets

MNF SELECTION

BDS

Want to realize some value accrued over night with the line dropping from -7, especially considering the Colts are at home and off a SU road loss to Buffalo.  Further, we note in game #1 the Jets offensively earned 46.25% rushing yards as part of their overall total yardage output vs. a confused Cleveland club.  New York used their running game (154) to control tempo against an adjusting defense.  The won easily 31-10 in New York creating 5 turnovers to bring home an impressive victory.  But, as we know there can be a great division between week #1 and week #2 results.  Versus Buffalo on the road the Colts last week were stymied on the ground (under 4.0 YPC), while, the Bills received great games from Taylor, Harvin and Williams.  Indy was hurt by QB Luck abandoning the running game.  But, the talented signal-caller should take advantage of DB Cromaarite who has been slowed by an injury.  The Colts generated just 25% running plays last week because they fell behind early 24-0.  We look for a critical change in play calling and a more aggressive Indianapolis to susutain a 10-point victory.  This is a critical bounce back game for the Colts, no less in prime time where they show 16-6 ATS.  As chalks on Monday they show 9-2 ATS...Indianapolis!

5* Seattle +3-1/2 not lower...over Green Bay

NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS...Analysis to follow, Good Luck!

10* Philadelphia over Dallas

NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

BDS

No other games means as much to the fans in Philadelphia as does this battle with Dallas at the Linc. Historically, NFC East games have been wars to say the least, but this has added meaning considering that RB Murray a former Cowboy, now plays for the Eagles. In addition, the Birds are comng off a SU loss vs. Atlanta. While the Pokes show off a miraculous 27-26 win over NYG.  No doubt the Eagles can not afford to fall 0-2 in the loss column considering all that is riding on the season.  Granted the underdog is 2-7 ATS in the series, while Dallas is a super 6-1-1 ATS in their first road game of the season.  But, they are 0-4 ATS after facing the Giants...MOST IMPORTANT THE EAGLES HAVE A HUGE EMOTIONAL EDGE, especially that Dez Bryant is out.