5* DAYTON -6-1/2 over LaSalle

Not afraid to go against helter-skelter LaSalle who caught (as we forecasted) GW flat as a tire and never look back in an easy Gola Arena win which has been rare this year for Dr. "G" and company. The key  for the Explorers is guard-forward Jordan Price who had a solid effort vs. GW, but this is Datyon in Ohio.  The Flyers possess too much scoring balance for the Explorers to have a chance on the road...GOOD LUCK!

5* Ohio State +7 over Oregon

***Alert

As you know our BOWL GOY cashed HUGE with Ohio State winning SU as an UNDERDOG over Alabama...Here is our BEST BET for the Monday Championship Game.  I will return later this week with a complete analysis, and I thank you for your patience and a GREAT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON!

010815....***Alert

After our research was finally completed we must now tell you the line is keyed at Oregon -6 over Ohio State.  I am not thrilled with the change considering the public domain had part of the action, along with the sharp money.  Remember the Oregon football program has never defeated Ohio State, however this could be the VERY BEST Oregon team in history. 

ADVANTAGE...Ohio State does have a huge edge in practice time, and I'm talking about the normal 18 practices allowed for bowl games and spring preparation.  Since the Buckeye student body has not returned to school HC Meyer can call practice as much as needed...Oregon is following strict limitations and adherence to what the NCAA guidelines are for their situation.  Ohio State shows Vegas success vs. Pac-10 units with a 9-2-1 ATS edge.

SPECIAL NOTE:  CHECK BACK SUNDAY NIGH FOR A POSSIBLE TOTAL MOVE

5* Dallas+ over Green Bay

NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

...return later with complete analysis, note the line is thundering down, all because of the injury to QB Rodgers, believe this is an over reaction, as many players in the NFL have sustained similar injuries for periods of time without making noise about said injury.  But, with the over zealous networks searching for intel, the construct formulates the injury as almost "life threatening?" Since we are on Dallas no matter, I am not happy about the exchange rate dropping...I will return tonight with our "game" analysis...Have a great weekend.

011015

Play on:  4* New England (12-4) over Baltimore (11-6) @ 4:35 Eastern

Re:  Baltimore has not played in temperatures less than 38 degrees

The line opened -7-1/2 New England, but has since been driven down to the whole number -7.  Which is to be expected with the Ravens record against the Patriots, and the fact sharps were looking to take numbers rather than laying in this exciting football game.  For those who have had their minds steeped in comet research it is now time for a reality check.  For the Patriots loyal base this is not good news as their favorites have been smashed in recent playoff meetings vs. Baltimore .  Against the spread we find the Ravens 5-0 ATS on the road in playoff games, while inside the series Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS at New England.  But, we look for those trends to end abruptly. We note, the Ravens arrived this post season with help from the Steelers as their offense was short staffed with RB Bell on the sidelines.  Plus Baltimore was fortunate having DT Ngata return from a four week suspension just in time to face Big Ben.  No matter the Ravens travel to New England full of confidence with a solid coach in Harbaugh and history of playoff successes against the enemy.  The Patriots last played the Ravens in December 2012 accounting for a 41-7 blowout for New England.  It was a great day as the Ravens, who some think are the most disliked team in the NFL fell very hard.  So it is clear why there was immediate line movement for Baltimore (Revenge), their successes against Billy B. and the heightened anticipation with the expelling of the Pittsburgh playoff interests and recent spread history.   Plus the Ravens run defense is holding the opposition to 88.3 yards per game.  So, It is critical for NE to establish their ground arsenal to take pressure off Brady and the banged up receiver corpse. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS at home vs. a team with a >.500 road mark.  While Baltimore shows 2-9-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game and 4-11-1 ATS against the American Football Conference.  Looking at each unit the most glaring weakness on either side of the ball is the Baltimore secondary….QB Brady threw 33 touches this year!  New England by 10.

010915

NBA POWER ANGLE

5* GOLDEN STATE (28-5) over Cleveland (19-17) @ 10:35 Eastern

After a decent start with Lebron the Cavs have fallen on hard times. Now they must travel out west to face maybe the very best team in the league.  To make matters worse Cleveland has an immediate diet of Western Conference foes (5) away from home.  The good news for the Cavs is their recent success rate SU in this building 5-2 L7.  This time Golden State has a whole different idea of what reality in this situation.  Lebron James is injured and the Cavs have been trading and now looking for improved floor chemistry. The formidable Warriors average 109.2 points per game allowing slightly over 98 @ game on defense.   Cleveland is almost B/E in the same compilation 104.0 PF vs. 99.5 PA. With guard Curry playing on a different level than most of the NBA guards and the Warriors accruing deep shooting abilities feel the fundamental and emotional angles are one-sided.  From the technical standpoint GS is 8-2 ATS in the series with Cleveland 1-5 ATS with one day of rest and 1-9 ATS allowing 100+ points in their last game…GOLDEN STATE ROLLS!

010715

Play on:  5* Kansas+ over Baylor

Big-12 Game of the Week

Re: The Jayhawks haven't lost a Big-12 opener since 1991 a 88-82 loss to the Sooners.

The last two sporting seasons the Bears have improved their recognition on the national stage in both football and basketball.  Against Michigan State in the recent bowl game, the Bears collapsed in the 4th quarter allowing the Spartans a come from behind victory…Baylor was a FG or less favorite in the game.  Here the sport is different, but again Baylor is favored (-3) against a famous program the Kansas Jayhawks.  The adjusted RPI numbers show Kansas #1 with a 0.7183 rating, while carrying a SOS value of 0.6767.  Home standing Baylor plays after losing to Oklahoma, still rated #20 with a 0.6264 RPI and a  0.5541 SOS. KU has played a more difficult schedule.  To some the Kansas road loss at Temple seemed puzzling as the Owls preseason forecasts were shallow considering they had a few super transfers hitting the court.  The key edge for the Jayhawks is their shooting ability from the arc.  Techs clearly favor the road team in the series 14-3-1 ATS with KU 7-1 ATS at Baylor.

CBB A-10 GAME OF THE WEEK

5* LaSalle -4 (746) over UMass @ 7:00 Eastern

The Explorers (8-6) show off that so-so effort at George Mason (70-62), while UMass looks to rebound after being waxed by SBA 69-55 as the Bonnies rebounded from a loss at Delaware (first win). The Minuteman (7-7) are trying to play through a horrible slump 2-6 SU L8. However, two of those losses were to BYU (11-4) and Providence (12-4) with RPI’s of 0.6053 and 0.6120.  The Explorers go back home to their tiny gym that can be authored as a “band-box.”  Extremely loud when the place is filled, but classes don’t resume until January 12th, so the student body might not be at capacity.  In Saturday’s loss down in Virginia, the Explorers G-F Auburn transfer Jordan Price played just 22 minutes shooting 1-11 from the field scoring only 2 points on the night.  LaSalle came on early and had a 34-31 lead, but lost the second-half 39-28 to GM as the kids from Virginia shot 57.5% overall from the field, 4-6 from 3PT range.  The Explorers don’t have to worry about the three’s from SBA as the visitor has the same weakness as LaSalle from beyond the arc.  This time around we expect a HUGE REBOUND for LaSalle and Jordan Price.  Remember the series has been a downer for the Bonnies who are 1-6 ATS at LaSalle and 0-6 ATS vs. A-10 competition.  With UMASS 0-4 SU on the road, and LaSalle covering their last 5-of-6 overall. EMOTIONAL EDGE:  LASALLE DOUBLE REVENGE...Explorers 76-69 over UMass.

010515

5* Atlanta+ over LA Clippers @ 10:35 Eastern

Overnight the line has stayed steady at -5-1/2 with the Clippers as the chalk.  We note, do not accept anything less than the aforementioned number…Buy ½ point if need be.  The traveling Hawks show 25-8 SU first place in the Southeast Division.  In addition, they’re hot winning 4 straight games, 9-of-10 SU. On the road they are 11-5 SU this season.  Home standing Clippers 23-11 SU on the season winners of 3 straight, 6-4 SU L10. Techs have LAC 3-7 ATS L10, 7-20 ATS after the opposition pumps in 100+ points.  Finally, the Clippers are a horrid 1-7 ATS at home vs. road team with a >.500 record.  ATLANTA comes in hot from all aspects SU and ATS.  Against the spread, they enlist a PERFECT 4-0 ATS mark vs. LAC.  6-0 ATS in Monday games, and 7-0 ATS vs. the West, while going 11-1 ATS >.500 unit….HAWKS!

4* Marist+ 15-1/2 over St. Peter's

We had St. Peter's the other day, now going against this formidable unit. The key subject is the formulation of the point spread. For a Sunday game in a natural win spot, the line value evaluation is off.  Our POTENTIAL VALUE RATING (PVR) has Marist with a -13.0 deficit, now check line, the higher it goes the more VALUE you will accrue. Good Luck.

4* Niagara over Monmouth

The visitor has a +1.20 PVR advantage, too much value here hangs with Niagara in what should be a low scoring game Sunday...Good Luck.

4* Canisius over Manhattan

Not to devalue some key national insights, and despite their early games still feel Manhattan has much to prove, and they are banged up...Our POTENTIAL VALUE RATING has Canisius +6.30 in this battle...LAY THE WOOD.

5* Seton Hall +6 over Villanova

We have 'Nova with a +3.7 PVR (Potential Value Rating), which is an indicator on how close to their norm a team will play at the given site of the game, including all RS data and statistical information.  It does not include the EMOTIONAL ANGLE.  However, if our projected side (rated) lacks the EA, we will automatically reduce the overall math value.  As a BONUS in day action, I will include our PVR projections where all data is available absolutely FREE.  This is not done as a projection for you to play the given unit, but a yardstick to see how our system works. We will return later with night selections...Good Luck and thank you.

BONUS NO CHARGE:

(PVR Edge vs. LVL = Result)

Ohio State, Rutgers, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Kansas State, William & Mary, St. Joseph's, Northeastern, UCONN, Baylor, Arkansas Little Rock, Yale, Texas Tech, Purdue, Georgia Tech, St.Louis, Cornell and Butler.

4* Detroit+ over Wright State

Much of our PVR angles for tonight have three or four EASTERN EDGES meeting the criteria by our charts are not strong for either side.  However, we catch Detroit on the road in an underdog role.  Our POTENTIAL VALUE RATING has the visitor with a +1.90 advantage. Good Luck!

4* Kansas State + over UCLA

Just a quick note on the betting cycles in Las Vegas. Customers from California and Arizona visit the Strip often on NFL weekends and weeks and when COLLEGE FOOTBALL hits prime time large.  This week was a case in point.  We note with PAC-10 teams are looking solid in the bowls, especially Oregon and Stanford....dollars have hit the UCLA side, and we thank the public domain for inspiring this play. Statistically, the Wildcats have many edges and bring coach Snyder to the forefront in a BIG GAME. In closing, Kansas State is 16-5 ATS off a SU loss, while UCLA is 1-4 ATS vs. the Big-12. TAKE ALL THE POINTS!

10* OHIO STATE+ over Alabama....COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR.

WHAT URBAN AND LITTLE NICKY HAVE DONE FOR THE INTEREST LEVEL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL HAS BEEN AMAZING.  NUMEROUS REPORTING OUTLETS HAVE SMACKED BOTH COACHES IN THEIR LEAD ADDITIONS WHICH FOCUS ON THE BOWL SEASON.  MORE THEY HAVE BEEN FEATURING THIS ENCOUNTER AS "ANOTHER BOWL WIN FOR ALABAMA," BUT TRUST ME IT WILL BE A VERY COMPETITIVE GAME BETWEEN TWO OLD FRIENDS.  REMEMBER THE BUCKEYES ARE SOLID AT THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE, AND WON'T BE INTIMATED BY THE 'BAMA MONIKER.  STILL IT REALITY THAT THE TIDE IS A MORE EFFECTIVE TEAM AND PROGRAM SINCE THEY ARE COMING OUT OF THE SEC.  AND HAVE TWICE AS MANY 5* RECRUITS PLAYING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL THAN THE BUCKEYES. BUT, AFTER SEEING THE 1-3 SU RECORD FOR THE SEC IN BOWL GAMES, I AM EVEN MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SELECTION...REMEMBER URBAN MEYER WILL NOT BE CAUGHT NAPPING VS. #1.  SOLID INDICATORS FROM TECHNICAL DATA ILLUSTRATE ALABAMA 5-13-1 ATS L19 GAMES OUT.  MORE IMPORTANT THE CRIMSON TIDE ARE AN ALMOST PERFECT 0-7-1 ATS L8 NON-CONFERENCE GAMES...CLOSE!

5* Chicago -11 or lower...over Denver

The line overnight opened at -10 Chicago on the Vegas Strip.  No doubt if I was out in Las Vegas, I would have taken advantage of the number Wednesday.  This theory stems from years of line value studies. Now we have to lay -11, but note the number had reached -11-1/2.  Right now you can catch value without the hook being an issue. Further, we find the Bulls in SAME SEASON REVENGE vs. the floundering Nuggets who show 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS L5 games on the board.  MOTIVATION...the Bulls are off a 96-82 loss to the Nets, therefore, the "MO" should be there for Chicago. The home team in the series reflects an overall 12-3-1 ATS mark, while Denver is 1-5-1 ATS at Chicago. Oh, one final tech the Nuggets are 1-7 ATS on the road..THIS IS A BEST BET AND OUR GAME OF THE WEEK.

COLLEGE BOWLS?  THE FAMOUS TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE IS HOT AND READY FOR YOU!

HAPPY NEW YEAR...BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR GOES ONLY WED. MORNING 01/01/15

010115

FIRST MEETING

10* Florida State +10 over Oregon

Rose Bowl

We are going against our summer forecast of Oregon and Oklahoma in the FINAL GAME of the season.  The Sooners out early because of injuries and so-so quarterbacking, while #3 Oregon we feel will be upset on Thursday by the Seminoles.  We agree that Oregon (12-1) is a super unit, especially with QB Mariota (Mr. Heisman) at quarterback, while being strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Ditto, Florida State who is UNDEFEATED at 13-0 and #2 in the country carrying the same assets with Mariota an edge over Winston at the helm.  FSU has won 6 straight bowl games. No matter, whoever wins goes to the first ever CFB Championship game on January 12th.   As the former national champions Florida State has had a mixture of issues on the team this season, and still managed to continue their winning streak currently at 29 games. The Sems have garnered one of the best post season SU records in the nation with a 27-14-2 life time record.  We can’t discount the relative talent and history of the Ducks program.  HC Helfrich does not have the pedigree of Jimbo Fisher, but his club closed the season winning eight straight games. Their only this season was to pesky Arizona way back in early October 31-24.  Still, the Ducks avenged that difficult loss with a PAC-12 Championship defeating Arizona 51-13.  Unlike FSU the Ducks have a losing post season record at 12-15.  As said earlier it appears this will be a super duel between QB Winston (3,359) who threw for 24 touches. QB Mariota (3,783) threw for 38 touches.  Plus the kid ran for 669 yards which shows his duality. The skill position talent for the opposing units appear dead even with the exception of FSU who has a first round draftee in WR Greene (1,306) who hauled in 93 catches. Also, the Oregon defense can ill afford to ignore the down field abilities of Nick O’Leary a legit first rounder too.  We understand the Sems defense has fallen off somewhat this season. It certainly helps to have a pair of receiving outlets like WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary to count on. Greene, FSU's all-time leading receiver, had another hugely productive year, hauling in 93 balls, for 1,306 yards and seven TDs. O'Leary, a First-Team All-American, took home the Mackey Award as the nation's top tight end after catching 47 balls, for 614 yards and six scores.  Also, there is slight edge in RB with Karlos Williams of FSU who scored ten touches this season.  Surely, I sound biased, but that’s the reason for the selection.  The actual winning edge I believe will come from FSU PK Aguayo who is a first team AA this season.  We know Florida State’s has had some bad games allowing the opposition to breath down their necks, but that’s asset here.  We close with a wonderful tech as the Sems are 8-1-1 ATS bowl games.  We know the Ducks have covered 8 straight, however, it’s FSU 38 Oregon 37.

4* Northeastern +3-1/2 over Richmond

You will read this theory throughout the CBB season, i.e., NE possesses a higher **POTENTIAL VALUE RATING (+2.20) than the Richmond Spiders. The only respect here generated by the lines makers for the Spiders is the home court and time of the season.  Included in our value chart is the returning starter factor plus road experience shooting, FT and rebounding...NE by 3.

**PVR will always reflect value based on home, road dichotomy.

(545) 3* DELAWARE+ over SBA @ 7:00 Eastern

College Basketball Appreciation Selection

Hard pressed to consider the St. Bonnies even though the opener dropped from -9-1/2 to -9, and going lower this morning.  Delaware is 0-10 SU struggling throughout the early season shooting just 35%, and that’s with 4 DD scorers and playing their last two games with high emotion, but not winning.  However, they catch a struggling Bonnies unit who just lost to Maryland Eastern Shore with their FG% declining.  This is the first time this season SBA is booked as a chalk on the road.  Also, this is a REVENGE GAME for SBA.  Therefore, we are taking the BLUE HENS and the points as they play over their heads this evening and grab the cash…TAKE THE POINTS!

4* Louisville +7 or higher....over Georgia

Realize this is like pulling teeth going against a quality SEC unit with an outstanding coach.  However, my whole basis for this side is the Louisville defense and their team speed. Overall, including SEC types Louisville is ranked HIGH in many "D" categories this season.  So, we are projecting a lower scoring game than the posted number.  However, more importantly we note the post season successes for SEC teams when they face Big-12 units (Arkansas and A&M), but this is an ACC unit that can run sideline to sideline on both sides of the ball (i.e.,Clemson, etc.). Also, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE IS ALL LOUISVILLE.

No Comment, ck. back later.

4* Denver -4 over St. Joseph's

We have to look at some very misleading numbers for both schools, but before hand Denver has true advantages being at home off BB losses to undefeated Colorado State and lowly Houston Baptist.  St. Joe comes in with really a shortage in fire power.  They average 59.9 points per game which #320 in the country. FG% (.394), FT% (41.3) and 3B% (.252) are earmarks of a third level CBB team.  Defensively they are decent holding the opposition to 62.3% from the field. Denver shows with FG% (.478), FT% (74.1) and 3B% (.382) over an above the Hawks. Plus, they have 3DD scores in Griffin, Engesser and Olson.  If Nate Engesser is hot from 3 tonight, it will cause serious problems for the SJU defense.  SOS advantage goes to the Hawks simply because they played Villanova and Gonzaga losing by a combined net point differential of -80, however. Also, SJU defeated Temple before their heralded transfers hit the pines.  Last year SJU defeated Denver 53-52, so we have a natural REVENGE situation. In the compilation we add the Hawks travel time, being away during the Xmas break. And finally, the lost by Denver to Bryant 48-46 was right after the heart breaking 85-84 loss to CSU on the road. Granted SJU does play well ATS vs.

10* NEW JERSEY NETS over SAC
NBA LINE VALUE
The aspiring Nets had won three straight games before being crushed by 25 points via the Indiana Pacers. To say the Nets were flat is an understatement. Opposing SAC comes in on a real ATS downer at 0-6-2 ATS RUN L8, while going 0-6 ATS in New Jersey. In addition, the home team has covered 8-of-10 ATS in the series. Realize this looks almost too good from the EMOTIONAL and ATS standpoint, but it has ALL VALUE!

122714

Play on:  4* Arizona State (230) over Duke @ 2:00 Eastern

SUN BOWL BEST

Both schools come in after sensational 9-3 seasons.  Against the spread ASU has a slight advantage at 6-3 with the Blue Devils 5-3 on the season.  On offense, the Sun Devils are led by QB Kelly who threw for 1,874 yards with 20 touches. For the high flying Blue Devils Quarterback Anthony Boone leads the way with 2,507 yards throwing with 17 touches.  In addition Boone ran for 5 touches complimenting his arm abilities.  PF & PA found the Blue Devils with a net edge at +11.9 vs. +9.3 for Arizona State.  Defensively, the Blue Devils (#67) are very talented this season ranking #18 in 3rd down defense and #20 in scoring defense.  ASU (#84) illustrates a unit that is rated #6 in defensive touchdowns.  Remember the Sun Devils have a solid defense and faced much stiffer competition than Duke.  The definitive differences between these two is SOS and the fact ASU has a more prolific running attack that will control the clock.  Further, ASU comes in ready to explode as they support a 5-1 ATS mark off a SU loss.

12/24/14

5* Western Kentucky (218) over Central Michigan @ 12:00 Eastern   

Bahama Bowl Best

Most of you know our Annual 20* College Football Game of the Year was Western Kentucky over Army.  We’ve stayed close to the ‘Toppers this year simply because QB Doughty and company run a gun slingers offense.  With so much speed on the outside and the running and throwing abilities of Doughty the ‘Toppers even upset Marshall 67-66, a game we mistakenly stayed away from in these pages.  No matter, WKU has defeated Bowling Green, came close to defeating the Illini, defeated Army, Navy, UTEP and Old Dominion.  Central Michigan comes in 7-5 as does Western Kentucky.  The Chips have defeated Purdue, NIU and Miami Ohio. In the SOS rating systems most consider the ‘Toppers playing a more difficult schedule.  Believe me the fact that WKU beat Marshall sells me on this game.  Plus, the EMOTIONAL ANGLE is all Western Kentucky as in 2012 the Chips defeated their opposition (WKU) in the Little Caesars’ Bowl 24-21. Statistically, WKU is +5.0 vs Central’s +2.0 in the seasons overall net point differentials.  We note, the passing of WKU allows a huge advantage for the school down south.  Realize Central Michigan will be a much more physical defense, especially stopping the run. But, remember CMU is negative in the turnover factor which +WKU. The Chips were 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season.  Granted CMU comes in with some success in bowl games carrying 3-1-1 ATS record.  However, the Chips are 5-15-1 ATS vs. non-conference teams.  And, since this is being played on grass we have to mention the ‘Toppers are 14-3-1 ATS on that surface.  I believe you will see a wide open game with Western Kentucky winning by 7.

10* Georgia Tech +4-1/2 at least...over Dayton

This is a great situation that should end up being a SU for the Bees.  First you know this is a REVENGE GAME for Tech. This time around the Bees have brought solid transfers to improve their front line and inside game.  In the end that factor will cause real problems for the Flyers who have issues vs. tall groups.  Plus Tech is 4-0 ATS on the road vs. >.600 units and 6-0-1 ATS on the road versus a winning home team.  Dayton 0-4 ATS vs. non-conference units....Buzzer job!

122114

4* Arizona+ (130) over Seattle @ 8:30 Eastern

There have been situations this season both in college and pro football that have been close to the unbelievable.  The QB injury problems at Ohio State and Utah State in College Football, and now Arizona in the NFL are clear examples. Sunday night the third string QB Ryan Lindley (1-3 as starter) of Arizona gets the call against the #1 scoring defense of Seattle (17.3).  By the way, the Seahawks have held the opposition to under 273 yards per game overall.  Arizona (11-3) is ranked 25th in overall offense (20.3), and have difficulties at times this season scoring points.  Over the last 5 weeks Arizona has been held to 12.8 points per game.  Where Arizona (10-4) is not so-so is on defense as they’ve held nine opponents to seventeen points or less.  No matter, Cardinals have been a resilient team behind HC Bruce Arians.  In their initial game, this season up in Seattle the Seahawks shutdown Arizona 19-13.  Last year Seattle won 34-22 in Arizona, while the Cardinals won at Seattle by a 17-10 count.  This should be a low scoring (36) game with RB Williams trying to control the tempo for the Cardinals offense.  Technically, speaking the bad news for Seattle is their 1-4 ATS mark during week #16.  Arizona has some real strong points as they show 6-0 ATS at home (7-0 SU) AND 7-1 ATS during the month of December.  In the series the home team has covered 5-of-7.  Finally, Arizona is 12-3 ATS vs. the NFC…TAKE ALL THE POINTS…Good Luck.

12/20/14

Play on:  10* (209) South Alabama -3 (not higher) over Bowling Green @ 9:15 Eastern

Site: Montgomery, Alabama

Camellia Bowl

This is the first ever Camellia Bowl and the first post season event for the Jags.  So without hesitation, I can estimate the EMOTIONAL ANGLE rests with the team from Alabama, especially since this is a “home” game for SA. Also, BG comes in off three straight losses. If you know how I think, it should register with you “that speed kills.”  On the playing field the Bowling Green defense can’t stay with the  South Alabama offense (6-6) on the edges.  This projects quick scoring drives for the Jags, while the Bowling Green (7-6) stogy offense will be unable to keep up for four quarters.  You see, the Falcons “D” is rated #106 in scoring defense.  And, #104 in defensive efficiency at (7.87)…By the way, that plays into a very decent ranking for SA at #56 with a +.01 in defensive efficiency. The big play maker for South Alabama is QB Brandon Bridge who is a senior and carries a 6-5 frame.  Bridge has thrown for over 1,600 yards this season with 14 touches.  Controlling the youngster will cause huge problems for that BG defense…JAGS ROLL!

12/20/14

Play on:  4* Utah (205) over Colorado State @ 3:30 Eastern

Las Vegas Bowl

Site:  Las Vegas, Nevada

This is a strange game right from the start as these two played in the same conference for 57 years.  Utah #23 leads the all-time series 55-22-2. The Rams show with the better record 10-2 SU, while Utah played the more difficult schedule 8-4 SU coming into the Saturday battle.  Utah has won 10-of-11 SU in bowl action.  The key emotional angle in the game goes against Colorado State as HC McElwain accepted a big time position in the SEC with Florida…. Offensively, the Rams took off in McElwain's system as quarterback Grayson, wide receiver Higgins and RB Hart (‘Bama transfer) paced an attack that drove the offense to almost 500 yards a game #12 in the nation.  That’s good news for OC Baldwin who will run the team until a new coach is available. In this situation CSU OC will be calling plays from sideline, instead of from the press box.  There is a major difference in responsibility as the HC on the field tasks are more complicated adding additional pressure to the overall staff.  The Utah defense (#72) has the complex job of stopping the diversified Rams offense.  But, the Utes have held a much higher level of opponent to 26.2 points per game, and 403 yards on average. So when you place records into the cue Utah possesses a strength advantage defensively.  Plus they have a super RB in Devonte Booker who garnered 1,350 yards rushing and 9 touches. And, with the Utah defense having the edge at the line of scrimmage (#1 Sacks), the CSU chances of winning SU are slim.  In fact, the Rams defense allowed a 100+ yard rusher in all of their games.  Believe you will see Wilson and Booker control the clock reducing the amount of positions for the Rams offense.  At this write the line is -3 in favor of Utah. This season the key wins for Utah were against Michigan, UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford, USC and Colorado...In those games Utah went 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS. Their four losses were against Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon.  In the last eight meetings Utah has covered 7 games.  Plus Utah is 36-17-2 ATS in non-conference games.  We know CSU is 9-1 ATS off a SU loss, but the Utes show with a solid 8-2 ATS mark vs. winning teams and 7-2 ATS in bowl...UTAH 36 Colorado State 24.

3* SMU+ over Michigan

Two teams coming from different seasons as the Big Blue (6-4) enters off a run in the NCAAs, SMU (7-3) from the NIT.  A horrible losing streak toward the end of the season really devastated Lar, but we look for a major BB this year. Looking at the match-up it appears the 'Stangs have the ability to board with the Wolves which is a critical factor when playing in a difficult building.  We do believe "The Coach" will win this SU, but let's enjoy the +1-1/2 as a buffer.  Remember, the Wolves are on a real downer ATS 0-5-1 ATS which is solid indicator of our punching in SMU as a play. Still, we will be very conservative in unit valuation since SMU is 0-2 SU on the road this season...Good Luck.

***Alert

More selections to come day and night, rough morning!

10* Northern Illinois +5-1/2 over Dartmouth

Last year the Huskies showed marked improvement as unit, now they show with a few talented transfers that will surely spark their offense. Since can play on the boards with Green we are looking for an outright road upset. Further, Northern shows 22-10 ATS in road games and 12-4-2 ATS L18 game on the boards. Finally, the Huskies are carrying a solid 6-2-1 ATS record against losing units. The Big Green are 4-9-1 ATS L14 and 1-4 ATS L5 non-conference games. Also, Dartmouth shows 0-4-1 ATS at home which is a major indicator here...Good Luck, and thank you.

(102) 4* Jacksonville -3 (buy 1/2 point, if the line is -3-1/2 ) over Tennessee

Okay, we know the Jags have not covered the number as a chalk in 46 games.  However, they are different breed in 2014.  Obviously, much more competitive on the offensive side with the ability of QB Bortles to throw over the top. The Titans show after losing 8 straight game, and now may have to use the inconsistent Henne. No matter, Tennessee is a disgraceful 3-13-2 vs. the AFC and 7-19-1 ATS in the month of December.  Finally, the Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in the series. Please make sure you can buy down to -3, it will surely help...Good Luck!

5* Dallas over Detroit

This is a no-brainer for Wednesday! Granted the Mavs (18-8) played last night winning very easily as we predicted inside the free selections menu. This play is against a horrible shooting team Detroit (5-20) who has shown no positive streaks thus far. With the Mavs on a hot run shooting and ATS, there is only one side. Remember Dallas is 4-1 ATS in the series and carries a huge road mark ATS at 58-25.  Finally, the Mavs bring a super 11-3 ATS mark vs. the Central...Good Luck.

5* Minnesota +13 over Washington

First off, last time Washington coasted (UTAH) in what could have been a BLOWOUT. We have a similar situation tonight in Washington.  The "T-Wolves" don't belong in the same building with the Wizards considering they (Washington) have won 8-of-9 SU. For Minnesota, all the key injuries suffered has them playing for respect until Rubio and company return.  The Wizards next stress game is in three days when they face the restructured Heat. Minny is 0-4 ATS vs. teams with a

5* Seattle over San Francisco

I won't spend much time talking about this key angle for Sunday. The basic facts have the Seahawks (9-4) on a 6-1 SU run and looking for control in the NFC.  San Francisco(7-6) and QB Kapernick have gone the other way fundamentally, while dropping three straight ATS.  In fact, Seattle has covered 6 straight in the series, and all though this is DD, we still love the Seahawks, especially since their 33-16 ATS at home in December. Good Luck.

10* Buffalo+ over Green Bay

The Packers fit the mold on Sunday as they show as a road chalk the #1 unit in betting circles.  I'm not degrading the handicap of the public domain.  But, from the technical standpoint the Packers are 2-5-1 ATS after playing on Monday night followed by a Sunday encounter.  On Monday I explained in these pages why Atlanta+ would cover against Green Bay. It's their forgiving defense which causes their on field issues. When we add in the home (Buffalo) field edge in series of 4-0 ATS, you can ascertain my reasoning. From the scheduling standpoint the Packers do not have a "stress" game until Detroit shows down the road. Finally Green Bay has never won in Buffalo.

Play on:  (576) 10* Vanderbilt+ over Purdue @ 9:00 Eastern

The Boilers 8-2 travel to 5-2 Vanderbilt on Saturday night in what should a classic encounter of different court systems. Interesting HC Stallings of Vandy played for Purdue back in the early eighties.  So, we know you have an SEC unit at home with an emotional coach vs. talented ‘Due who is catching their first road game of the season.  Only negative we see is in the early (first five minutes) parts of the game with Vanderbilt having not played since December 4th.  And, they have not seen a physical unit like Boilers yet this year.  However, the first time a unit plays at Vanderbilt the shooters have an adjustment period because of the depth perception.  If you’ve ever been in that gym you know what I’m saying is on point!  We know on paper Purdue has more talent and experience, and a huge FRONTLINE with Haas and Hammons.  However, this will all back fire late in the game with fouls beginning to be exacted by SEC referees.  Remember Stallings uses inside-out type players who can catch fouls because of their consistent movement.  Look for 3-balling Vanderbilt to come out with an outright upset down South.  Remember the ‘Due is off a win by over 20-points, i.e., 3-13-1 ATS in their next game. COMMIES! 

5* Cal -11-1/2 over Princeton

IVY LEAGUE GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Without going into an extended analysis, I've seen the Tigers play this season and realize after trip west (with all the distractions) and facing a unit with speed and shooting ability they're in for a tough battle. In addition, factoring in first year HC Martin for California who love nothing better than to notch a win over a "Princeton Minded" unit from New Jersey.  With the Bears guards and 3-balling assets we project a 13-point win...Good Luck.

10* Iona -13 over Indiana State

Last year ISU defeated Iona 65-64 in Indiana. Here we have ISU traveling to New York (with all its distractions) to face the revenge minded Gaels.  Only problems is, ISU lost both their top scorers (the glue of the team), and now has to run with faced paced Iona? They have lost 4 straight, 5 straight to the number while losing to horrid Ball State last time out. A.J. English (NBAer) of Iona will be in high gear Saturday, especially if Lawry can't play, listed as probable. Remember, Iona will push the ball which should play right into ISUs defensive weakness. Also, we note, ISU is 16-36 ATS L52 floor shows, and 0-5 ATS in non-conference...GAELS!

No Comment

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Play on:  Monmouth -2-1/2 or -3 (551) over Fordham  @ 7:00 Eastern

Make sure you are buying 1/2-point up to reduce your number, i.e., per the above

Fordham comes in with a 2-4 SU record, while road warrior Monmouth brings a .500 text to the floor in New York at 4-4.  Fordham went 10-21 last year and returns 4 starters. The Hawks finished a like kind 11-21 in 2013-2014.  However, they return 5 starters and early games indicate they have clearly improved.  Last year the Hawks at home defeated Fordham 87-78.  Overall, when you stat out these combatants Monmouth has a solid edge in scoring.  For example, Fordham is ranked #334 in FG% with Monmouth #77.  3-balling has the Hawks a decent 35.6% from the field, while Fordham is lacking with a 26.3% average.  Techs too, favor Monmouth who are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS on the road and 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.  The Rams too have a PERFECT angle at 0-7 ATS off a SU win…HAWKS!

Play on:  3* Iona (553) over Rider @ 7:00 Eastern

Rider 4-5 visits 4-3 Iona tonight in what should end up being a one-sided edition.  In the overall series Iona has a 31-23 SU edge.  Rider is on a 2-5 run SU with Iona 3-2 SU L5 times out.  To give more clarity to the current reality of each unit I looked at the last 5 games on the schedule.  Rider is averaging 61.6 ppg., while the Gaels show at 91.0 points per game.  Defensively, Iona is allowing 80.2 points per game with the Broncos giving up 61.6 per game.  Even with the defensive issues at the Iona end, it’s remarkable how well they play home.  Remember Iona brings back three starters, while Rider returns three starters from their 14-17 campaign.  The Gaels finished 17-3 in MAAC last year (1st), but will not carry those productive numbers this season, but still will have enough fire power to out duel Rider who is 1-4 ATS on this floor.  In addition, they show poor historically with a 4-9 ATS mark in the series. I believe the game will be close in the first-half, but the Gales should simply tire out the Broncos down stretch.  Good Luck. 

5* Villanova over Illinois

After seeing 'Nova dismantled St. Joseph's last weekend, it's hard to imagine them losing to the Illini, although they are a step up in strength value.  Remember the 'Cats are loaded assumed to be a possible TOP 5 entity is some circles.  Illini went 20-15 SU last year, but went on a defining 0-8 SU streak vs. Big-10 foes to hurt their NCAA chances. They ended up being eliminated early in the NIT. Now they show with 4 starters returning, but lacking PG Abrams who went down with a knee injury. No doubt Illinois is a quality unit, but they lack the speed and shooting accuracy of the Wildcats.  Plus 'Nova is 44-19 ATS overall, 20-6-1 ATS in non-conference and 6-0 ATS vs. the Big-10. Good Luck.

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Play on:  4* Atlanta+ (179) Green Bay @ 8:30 Eastern

Monday Night Best Bet

Tonight 5-7 Atlanta travels to Green Bay to face the 9-3 Packers in a NFC battle.  Believe it or not the Falcons with their losing record are the leaders in the sorry NFC South.  No unit in the NFC South has a positive net point differential.  On the road Atlanta is 2-4 SU, while the Packers show 6-0 SU at home. The Falcons have a real rough close affecting their playoff hopes with GB, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Carolina left. Atlanta has taken 3-of-4 SU.  Green Bay does lead the series with Atlanta going 14-12 SU, but the Falcons have covered 4 straight in GB. Ironically, if the Packers lose tonight they’ll end up tied for the division lead with Detroit who is 9-4. High flying Green Bay comes in the darlings of their fan base.  QB Rodgers is still #1 in QBR with a 118.6 rating carrying 32 touches and 3,325 yards.  By the way, the three interceptions thrown by Rodgers have come in the three loses by the Packers.  Overall, the Pack is ranked #15 in Total Offense with 377.9 yards a game and 31.7 points per game.  Opposing Atlanta has a productive attack ranked #17 in Total Offense with 374 yards a game and 24.3 points per game.  Defensively, the Pack has key edges in Total Yards allowed with GB 336.8 yards per game vs. Atlanta 403.2 yards given up on average.  Total points per game allowed, GB 20.9 points vs. Atlanta’s 24.9 points. Still, there are dividing technical numbers when we realize the road team is 7-1 ATS in the series with the underdog 6-2 ATS.  Finally, in an odd angle the Packers are 1-7 ATS vs. a losing unit which illustrates they show flat sometimes vs. so-so units. Green Bay has Atlanta, Buffalo and Tampa Bay left before facing Detroit in the final game of the season.  We expect Green Bay not to be 100% focused, despite the MNF venue…TAKE THE POINTS!

5* Seattle +1 over Philadelphia

We had the Eagles over Dallas down in Dallas on Thanksgiving. But, Seahawks are different kind of football. Defense, running QB etc. insures a different result Sunday. We Seattle is not the same team as their Championship team.  But, the Eagles current starting QB Sanchez has faced lesser defensive editions in his starts this season. In addition, the facts are clear that Philly is running football with their OL in tact with the exception Heramens who is out. So, now we see the emergence again of RB Shady McCoy. Yes, the home field in Philly is HUGE EDGE, but we believe you will see QB Sanchez depreciate somewhat Sunday in key 3rd down situations.  In the end QB Wilson will engineer the one play that wins the game.  After all, he is the one QB on field Sunday that has won a SUPER BOWL..Good Luck!

Note: #1 L60 days #1 College Football, #1 in College and NBA hoops combined, #3 in money won +$60,000...SIGN-UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FOOTBALL SEASON AND EARN!

Play on: 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati

The Steelers have lost 2-of-3 (Jets and Saints) and are in a MUST WIN scenrio.  Pittsburgh is 7-5 in the division with the Bengals 8-3-1 leading the North. Granted last time QB Dalton helped the Bengals defeat the Bucs with a solid second-half.  No matter, Cincinnati is very vulnerable defensively ranked #18 in points allowed, while surrendering over 125 yards a game on the ground. This is were we expect Pittsburgh to control the tempo offensively.  With Pittsburgh 13-3-1 ATS at Cincinnati, expect a SU & ATS win by Big Ben and company. Good Luck!

3* Ohio State over Wisconsin

Make sure you have +4 or +4-1/2 in this encounter. Note, we have great respect for Wisconsin going in, but the talent on-hand with Ohio State is more advanced with the exception at the quarterback position.  Look, these are common opponents, and Urban Meyer (10-0 ATS Underdog) in this underdog role is unbeatable. Ohio State in the series is 5-1-1 ATS with the dog 3-0-1 ATS. Finally, on neutral sites Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS.

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Play on: 4* Georgia Tech+ (126) over Florida State @ 8:00 Eastern

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK

The way Tech can win this SU is utilizing their magic playbook being run by red shirt soph QB Justin Thomas who has been on fire of late.  Thomas has burned the opposing defenses for 2,321 yards running and passing with an amazing 21 touches going into action on Saturday.  Tech has the right mindset on offense to really hurt the Sems, as they run the football for 334 yards per game.  The highly rated Florida State defense has been hit hard this year, and you can tell by the overall scores.   Their defense is giving up 22+ points per game and 371+ yards per game.  Although the defense of Florida State has +23 takeaways, they fall short offensively with their offensive unit allowing 17 sacks.  But, we know FSUs offense has a habit out playing their defensive issues by scoring 45 points per game behind 430+ yards of offense. In the series Tech has covered 4 in a row, including their 2012 ACC TITLE GAME when FSU survived laying -14, 21-15. The last time Tech defeated Florida State was in 2009 when Tech won SU 49-44 as a three-point underdog.  The psychology of the game sets up well for Georgia Tech as Florida State is still undefeated with some of their players talking out loud about going undefeated.  With all the changes and the movement in the PLAYOFF four best, the heat is on Florida State, not Tech.  For the ATS cover we know Florida State is 3-10 ATS L13 times out and 3-9 ATS off a SU win.  The Sems are 0-3-2 ATS L5 in the series with the UNDERDOG 3-0-2 ATS.  Tech has covered 5 straight games, 4 straight in conference.  In an outright war, take Georgia Tech 35-34.

Play on:  10* (117) KANSAS STATE +7 over Baylor….7:45 Eastern

COLLEGE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR

BDS

The line opened -9 or -9-1/2 favoring the home standing Bears.  Baylor is trying to garner a Playoff berth, while usurping the position of TCU in the Final Four.  No matter the health of QB Petty, this is a BIG GAME for Kansas State (9-2) head coach Bill Snyder and represents DOUBLE REVENGE.  Not only are we catching line value, but we have the emotional angle riding high.  We note, if QB Petty starts for Baylor, and it is well known prior to game time, expect the line to move up favoring Baylor.  Last year the Bears lost 35-25, while in 2012 the score was 52-24.  In 2011 Kansas State won 36-35 at Manhattan.   Okay we realize the Bears (10-1) are ranked #4 in total offense blowing out almost 49.8 points per game.  Kansas State is ranked #12 in total defense holding down the opposing offenses to 20.3 points per game.  The Wildcats are averaging 36.6 points per game with the Bears defense is a decent sort holding opponents to 23.9 points per game.  The UNDERDOG has covered 4 straight in the series with KSU being 4-1 ATS L5.  Plus, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS off a SU win and 21-6 ATS vs. a >.500+ unit. TAKE THE POINTS!

5* TCU -33, -33-1/2 over Iowa StateCFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BDS

Always leery when laying this type enhanced number.  But, the HORNED FROGS are getting healthy for this home game knowing Playoff ratings are at hand...We fully expect TCU to cover in this situation very easily, considering they will be sky high. From a state of Iowa newspaper:

"A win over Iowa State may not be enough for fourth-ranked Texas Christian.

The Horned Frogs will have to do it with style.

A dominating, leave-no-doubt win for host Texas Christian during this Saturday's 11 a.m. game against the Cyclones could help land the Horned Frogs in this season's College Football Playoff.

I can't illustrate this too much, don't think the Horned Frogs will be flat."

Statistically, the Cyclones have HUGE ISSUES on defense, their rushing defense allows 5.7 yards game...WHY WOULD YOU EVER USE YOUR PASSING GAMES? The Iowa State's RD is ranked #119.  The passing "D" is just as bad #88 giving up 260.6 yards per game.  So we add this technical note, IOWA STATE is 0-7 ATS after giving up more than 280 yards passing.  Further, the Cyclones are ranked #119 (5.7 yards per game) in rushing defense.  Obviously, the MAJOR WEAKNESS for Iowa State on defense.  Recall TCU is 7-0 ATS L7 home and 11-2 ATS L13 overall.