25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (CINCINNATI) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=7.3 PYA, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; Dallas is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Dallas is 3-1, but have played an easy schedule, especially when compared to who Cincinnati has played (at Jets, @ Pittsburgh, Denver, and Miami). Bengals rushing defense has been extremely good and they will be able to contain the strong Dallas attack today. This forces 3rd and long situations for a rookie QB to execute and that is not a something I see being a good situation for Dallas.

35* graded play on Oregon State as they take on California in a PAC-12 Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at posting the major upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 30* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I also think simply adding a 3* play using the money line to the 35* wager using the line is a solid investment as well.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is just 38-97 ATS (-68.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents; OSU is a rock solid 46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points After sending 21 seasons crunching numbers to create metrics, there is one dominant theme in many college football games and it pivots around the number 28. Many teams success or failure surrounds the number 28 and it can be if they score 28 or more or allow 28 or less points. In this game we have both in that CAL is horrible when allowing 28 points and OSU has been largely successful when scoring 28 or more. There is an 89% probability that OSU will score more than 28 points in this game. This game will be a PAC-12 shootout with a posted total of 71 points. This is NOT a recommendation for the ‘OVER” at all, but fact is that the matchups clearly show this will not be a defensive struggle focused on field position. This all favors OSU to compete for four quarters and keep this game to within 1 score going into the final 7:30 of the game.

Oregon State may have a weak defense, but Cal’s is even weaker based on a large percentage of the metrics calculated. I also like that OSU does not make mental mistakes as reflected in penalties/game where Cal does exhibit far more mental mistakes. I don’t think teams truly get caught looking ahead as many times as the media will want you to expect. However, Cal does have a big test coming up against Oregon in 2 weeks. So, the fact that Oregon is next with a BYE week looming could create coaching nightmares for the Cal staff. Take Oregon State.

25* graded play on as they take on the action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 mark ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) with a struggling defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.

Fundamental Discussion PointsFSU is definitely not off to the start they had hoped, losing the last two games to end up at 3-2. FSU desperately needs to bounce back this game and they will do that with the help of their offensive line giving way to an impressive day for both Dalvin Cook (FSU RB) andDeondre Francois (FSU QB). Miami may have started the season at 4-0 but they have not truly been tested by a high-powered offense yet; this week, Miami has to face their first offense with true athleticism and speed. FSU’s offense is averaging 508.8 yards per game and has a fairly balanced offensive scheme. FSU’s offensive efficiency rating is an 85.7 (out of 100), ranking fifth in the nation at the moment. Miami has not faced an offense anywhere near this, with their last opponents having efficiency ratings of 24.2 (FAU), 50.5 (Georgia Tech), and 51 (Appalachian State).

Due to the untested defense of Miami, and the impressive offense of FSU, I predict FSU will pull off this shootout victory.

25* graded play on NC State as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by more than 5 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Kelly is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of Notre Dame. Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Wolfpack are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points N.C. State should be able to keep pace offensively behind quarterback Ryan Finley, who is completing 72.4 percent of his passes and has thrown for nine TDs without an interception. Finley benefits from a balanced attack that is averaging 208 yards on the ground and has totaled 12 rushing TDs, led by senior running back Matthew Dayes (437 yards, three TDs). NC State won the last meeting very easily 28-6 and are significantly ahead of ND in all the metrics. Notre Dame is a young and 'improving' team this year. Take NC State Wolfpack.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is 35-89 ATS (-62.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Penn State is 107-37 ATS (+66.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Terrapins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Terps will have their hands full with Lions signal-caller Trace McSorley, who totaled 408 yards of total offense - the third highest single-game total in school history – as Penn State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit last week to defeat Minnesota 29-26 in overtime. McSorley (58.9 completion percentage, six TDs, three interceptions) leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1,284) and frequently targets wideouts Chris Godwin (23 catches, 325 yards), DaeSean Hamilton (16, 169) and DeAndre Thompkins (14, 237). Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley has 380 yards rushing this season. Penn State junior kicker Tyler Davis converted three field goals against Minnesota to match a career high and move his consecutive field goals streak to 17, breaking the school record of 15 held by Sam Ficken. Penn State coach James Franklin was the offensive coordinator at Maryland from 2008-10 and its wide receivers coach from 2000-04. Take Penn State Nittany Lions and the points.

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in BIG 12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by less than 20 points..

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992. Patterson is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of TCU and he is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU's shaky defense has allowed more than 40 points on three occasions this season. Willis has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 374 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and Beaty said he has been more efficient in recent games than Cozart (62.6 percent for 581 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions). Sophomore receiver Steven Sims Jr. has performed well with 17 receptions for a team-best 312 yards and five touchdowns, but the running game has struggled with senior Ke'aun Kinner (179 yards) being the most productive back.  The Horned Frogs have struggled to stop opponents on third downs -- ranking in a tie for 98th nationally at 43.5 percent. With the spread so high on a conference opponent on the road, there's a small chance for TCU to cover. Take the many points with Kansas Jayhawks.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on Boston College in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 23.7 units/unit wagered. Play against home underdogs (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with an experienced QB returning as starter. Another proven system supports this play posting a 57-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 70.4% winners and made 30.6 units/unit wagered. Play On road favorites (CLEMSON) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after leading their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons; 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Swinney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Eagles are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points As quarterback Deshaun Watson goes, so go the Tigers, and the junior recorded season highs of 306 yards and five touchdowns in the thriller against Louisville. He also tacked on a season-best 91 rushing yards and has been sacked only twice this season, giving him enough time to consistently find the likes of Mike Williams (25 catches, 373 yards, two TDs) and Ray-Ray McCloud (24, 271, two). Senior linebacker Ben Boulware is coming off a monster performance in which he registered a career-high 18 tackles (three for losses), a fumble recovery and a pass deflection - good enough to earn him ACC Player of the Week honors at his position. Clemson has won seven in a row on the road, one shy of matching the longest run in program history (1978-79). Take Clemson Tigers.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on Washington in NLDS action set to start at 5:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-27 over the last 5 seasons good for 75.9% winners and made 47.6 units/unit wagered. Play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA DODGERS) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (under .400) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP under 1.350), with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a poor 5-14 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 23-51 (-24.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 15-18 (-11.9 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents this season. Dodgers are 5-1 (+4.8 Units) against the Nationals this season. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 15-5 in their last 20 vs. National League East. Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 58-21 in Kershaw's last 79 starts. Dodgers are 10-1 in Kershaw's last 11 starts vs. Nationals. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games. Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw missed more than two months with back issues but finished the season strong by compiling an 0.72 ERA over his last four starts. Kershaw has thrived against Washington with a 10-2 mark and 2.02 ERA in 14 career appearances (13 starts), including a victory June 20 when he gave up one run and six hits over seven innings. Scherzer didn't face the Dodgers this season and is 2-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against Los Angeles. Slumping Washington RF Bryce Harper, who homered once in his final 27 contests, is 1-for-15 with 10 strikeouts against Kershaw. Take the LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SF will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 mark using the money line good for 75% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. This system has gone 17-4 good for 81% winners over the last three seasons.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points In the NFL, parity has never been more present than during the first four weeks of this season and it has caused week-to-week reversals of team performances. SF crushed the Rams in Week only to lose three straight games since while the Rams have won three games straight. Neither did anyone expect Arizona to be 1-3 to start the season. However, Arizona has played below their performance metrics established in 2015 and we do not see them rebounding anytime soon. Drew Stanton will be under center tonight and that creates even greater chemistry issues with receivers and timing routes. On the SF offensive side of the ball, protecting Gabbert with balanced play calling has become coach Kelly's M.O. Running back Carlos Hyde has a league-leading five rushing touchdowns in four games. While the 49ers are 32nd in the NFL in passing, teams have not been able to stack the line to stuff Hyde, and San Francisco is converting 40 percent of third downs. The deep speed of wide receiver Torrey Smith keeps most defenses on their toes, even if his season stats of nine catches, 106 yards, one touchdown don't completely tell that story. I do think you’ll see Smith targeted far more often tonight on shorter underneath routes when he is in man coverage and especially in cover zones and man underneath zone schemes. Getting Smith the ball in space creates opportunities for greater yards gained after the catch. As of this moment, SF is actually the better team.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on Cleveland in  action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 25-18 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 18-6 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of this season; 30-18 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season; 36-19 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. Cleveland is 19-29 (-16.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season and they are a poor 15-21 (-15.8 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Porcello's team's record is 25-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day. Red Sox are 11-2 in their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Indians are 9-21 in their last 30 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Indians are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. American League East. Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games. Indians are 3-8 in Bauer's last 11 starts vs. American League East.

Fundamental Discussion Points Porcello emerged as an AL Cy Young candidate in the second half and went 8-1 over his final 11 starts, yielding three or fewer earned runs in each of those outings. Porcello earned a home win over Cleveland on May 22 and is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 22 career starts against the Indians. Bauer might have slotted fourth in a fully healthy Cleveland rotation and struggled down the stretch with a 7.20 ERA in his last five starts.  Bauer faced Boston twice this season - once in relief - and allowed a total of six runs and 10 hits in six innings. The Red Sox took the season series 4-2, winning two of three in Cleveland. Indians SS Francisco Lindor batted .233 after Sept. 1 and was 6-for-23 against Boston this season. Take Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on Temple as they take on Memphis in AAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by less than 6 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.6% winners and made 28.6 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis is a poor 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992 and they are 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Temple is 3-0 against the spread versus Memphis since 1992. Rhule is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog as the coach of Temple. Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Memphis struggled in a 20-point loss at Ole Miss last week in its final non-conference tune-up. The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the team committed four turnovers and seven penalties against the Rebels, leaving first-year coach Mike Norvell searching for answers. With a quick turnaround to this Thursday night battle, that could prove problematic. Temple has a high class defense that won't allow anywhere near the Tigers' numbers they posted in their 3 wins. The Owls also have had success, esepecially against the spread, when facing the Tigers. Owls K Austin Jones is 8-for-8 in field goals (long of 45) and 21-for-21 on extra points this season. Take Temple Owls with the points.

25* graded play on the NY Mets as they take on San Francisco in NL Wild Card action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Mets will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 116-51 over the last 5 seasons good for 69.5% winners and made 49.9 units/unit wagered. Play against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 12-19 (-19.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of this season; 10-17 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 5-13 (-12.8 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games this season; 6-19 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons. NY Mets are 37-12 (+23.2 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 2 seasons. Giants are 2-7 in their last 9 games following an off day. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games. Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 1-6 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Mets are 5-0 in Syndergaard's last 5 Wednesday starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points There are plenty of worries as far as the Giants are concerned as they really struggled out of the All-Star break. Bumgarner wasn't always sharp down the stretch as he gave up four or more runs in four of his last nine starts and is well aware he'll need to be in top form in the wild-card game.  Syndergaard finished third in the NL in ERA (Bumgarner was fourth) and fourth in strikeouts (Bumgarner was third) while putting together one of the top all-around seasons in the league. He has a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three career starts against the Giants. The Mets won four of the seven regular-season meetings to earn homefield advantage. New York slugged a franchise-record 218 homers, which ranked second in the NL. Take the New York Mets.

25* graded play on Arkansas State as they host Georgia Southern in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game. will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AS is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points An 0-4 team getting just 4 points to a 3-1 team is somewhat rare. The biggest factor in this game is identifying why AS is 0-4. The strength of schedule (SOS) is the reason with AS having played Toledo, @ Auburn, @Utah State, and then losing at home to Western Michigan. That loss is not a good one admittedly, however, this was a huge wakeup call for the team. I am certain messages from coaches have emphasized the need to stop feeling sorry for themselves and that they have a great opportunity to represent the school very well on National TV. The Redwolves were a preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference, which can still happen since this is the first Conference game for the team.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Toronto in AL Wild Card action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-58 over the last 5 seasons good for 56.7% winners and made 51.1 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - team with a poor OBP (under .320) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP under 1.300) -AL, playing on Tuesday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 39-39 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season; 0-7 (-8.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% this season; 21-31 (-19.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season. Tillman's team's record is 10-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 16-5 (+11.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season; 10-3 (+9.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season; 22-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season; 12-2 (+11.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. Stroman's team's record is 5-14 (-16.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season and it is 4-11 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East. Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Orioles are 8-0 in Tillman's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Blue Jays are 3-14 in Stroman's last 17 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Blue Jays are 1-5 in Stroman's last 6 starts. Blue Jays are 1-7 in Stroman's last 8 starts vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 0-7 in Stroman's last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Baltimore should have plenty of confidence after finishing the season winning seven of its last nine games with a series win in Toronto last week that included a 3-2 triumph Wednesday in which Hyun Soo Kim belted a pinch-hit, two-run blast off Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna in the ninth inning. Grilli, who works the eighth inning for Toronto, allowed a total of six runs on seven hits - three home runs - in 1 2/3 innings over his last three appearances. Tillman at Toronto on Wednesday he allowed just two runs (one earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Thursday against Baltimore Stroman was reached for four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven innings. Orioles LHP Zach Britton converted all 47 of his save opportunities in the regular season with five versus Toronto, tossing eight scoreless innings over seven appearances against the Blue Jays. Take Baltimore Orioles.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-6 mark using the money line for 86.4% winners and has made 32.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are mistake-free teams averaging

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Dallas in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Francisco will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.9% winners and made 26.8 units/unit wagered. Play against road favorites (DALLAS) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a poor 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 and they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Garrett is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a favorite as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 49ers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in October.

Fundamental Discussion Points San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985. Dez Bryant discovered that he is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Dallas has lost its last six decisions without QB Tony Romo and Bryant in the lineup. Cowboys DE Randy Gregory will serve a 10-game suspension for multiple violations of the substance abuse policy, the NFL confirmed on Thursday. Carlos Hyde is tied with Elliot in yards per rush (3.9) and Hyde is tied for the NFL best four rushing touchdowns. Take San Francisco 49ers with the points.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Denver in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a money burning 21-50 ATS (-34.0 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, TB is a stout 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Winston threw for 389 yards on 36-for-58 passing in a loss to the Rams last week. Denver is a much better defensive team, but Winston has the mobility to extend plays. This capability is the perfect anecdote for an overly aggressive defense like Denver. If Denver opts not to bring pressure, then Winston has the arm to execute and compete underneath routs in a zone coverage scheme. I am looking for Winston to have another huge day with this one ending in a win.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 mark good for 87% winners and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) and is a mistake-free team committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Over the last 3 seasons this system has gone 18-2 making 18.8 units/unit wagered. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Although just three weeks into the season, the Falcons are the top scoring offense in the league at 34.7 PPG. They are also best in yards gained per game (448), best in points per play at 0.545. The point is that Carolina has struggled to stop any of their first three opponents and rank 19th allowing 23.3 PPG. So, Atlanta has a huge advantage on the offensive side especially with two RB playing at a very high level. On offense Newton has been under pressure in nearly pass attempt. LT is a huge problem right now for the Panthers and Atlanta will look to show pressure – not necessarily bring it – from that side of the LOS. Moreover, Benjamin was shutout last week against Minnesota to a corner that gave up 6 inches and 65 pounds to him. So, this line is based on the public perception that Carolina will in no way lose this game and go to 1-3 on the season. Truth is that Atlanta is a vastly better team than they were last year and Carolina was thoroughly outplayed last week and they are not executing with any amount of confidence. Take Atlanta.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Baltimore in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-47 mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Every NFL season we see more teams either underperform or outperform their preseason media expectations. So, we have three teams this season that is undefeated and none of them were on the preseason radar in Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. I had mentioned in articles I published in the preseason a new model I had built that exploits the premise that the NFL is a league of parity; a league that is handicapped by the cap and has done very well in keeping most teams in a competitive bucket. However, I do not see Baltimore as a team that is going to go 12-4 this season, but I do see the Raiders making the playoffs. So, this is not the reason for this play by any measure. Yet, given Baltimore’s great start, it is ramped up the public betting on them and has now given us a SIM graded play that has added value from the inflated line. Raiders have had at least 123 rushing yards in each game. Baltimore has had a max of 84 rushing yards and has immense difficulty moving the ball on the ground. It has been Baltimore’s defense that has stepped up and has given the offense short field scoring opportunities. Sooner or later, this will end and Flacco will be forced to win the game with his arm and I think today is one of those games.

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis in AFC South action set to start at 9:30 AM ET in London, England. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-26 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.7% winners and made 28.4 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indy is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992 and they are a poor 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Jacksonville is 61-23 ATS (+35.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. Jaguars are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Luck is having some trouble finding healthy receivers, however, and T.Y. Hilton (knee) did not practice on Wednesday while Donte Moncrief (shoulder) could miss another month. The Colts steadily are getting healthier on the other side of the ball and surrendered 22 points in the Week 3 win after giving up a total of 73 in their first two contests. Colts LB Trent Cole was placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Indianapolis CB Darius Butler (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and is week-to-week. Also factor in the Jaguars will be more comfortable playing in London than any other team in the NFL. Take Jacksonville Jaguars with the points.

25* graded play on the LA Angels as they take on Houston in AL West action set to start at 9:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-22 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.1% winners and made 43.8 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (LA ANGELS) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 101-59 over the last 5 seasons good for 63.1% winners and made 42.1 units/unit wagered. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing, with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Angels are 21-13 (+12.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of this season; 15-2 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 2 seasons; 19-7 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season; 12-2 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Houston is a poor 8-16 (-10.8 Units) against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games this season and they are 25-36 (-18.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.

Fundamental Discussion Points Trout is 6-for-19 with two home runs against McHugh. Skaggs last appearance was on Sept. 9, when he tossed six scoreless frames against Texas. He made three starts against Houston two years ago and was 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA over 20 innings. The Astros are shutting down rookie 3B Alex Bergman, who has been battling a right hamstring injury. Just look at which direction these two teams are trending here and note yesterday's game wasn't a fluke. Take Los Angeles Angels.

5

50* graded play on Clemson as they take on Louisville in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Unless the line does move to +3 and a minimum money line of +140, the combination wager consisting of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line is not validated. If it does move to that level, then by all means place the combination wager. I do think that the line is more likely to go to 2 ½ then back down to pick-em given the recent public betting flows that have developed over the last three days.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RY/G against a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing

25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on TCU in BIG-12 the action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-15 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is just 25-63 ATS (-44.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Sooners are a stout 123-64 ATS (+52.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going down to Forth Worth and going with Boomer and the Sooners in this Big 12 Matchup. These two teams traditionally have played close games, but we feel this is a statement game for Oklahoma as Houston and Ohio State have kept their big dreams at bay, but now they are back at home in the Big 12 where Bob Stoops has pretty much owned the conference. TCU lost a lot of offensive weapons coming into the season and have performed well this year so far. We think Oklahoma who comes into this game averaging 36 points per game will move the ball against the Horned Frog Defense and the defense will step up its game now that they are back in conference play. The Big 12 Championship is still in play for OU and we look for the Sooners to come in off a week of rest and be well prepared for this game. Baker Mayfield comes into this game with 7 touch down passes against 2 interceptions and look for this emotional leader to have a big day against the TCU defense.

Today it is Boomer Sooner and take Oklahoma and lay the 3 and a hook.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by at least 3 points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) solid team outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; OK State is just 37-94 ATS (-66.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Texas runs the ball and then they run it again and again. They rank 7th in the nation averaging 52 rushing plays per game and rank 20th gaining 238 rushing yards per game. They are not a 1-dimensional team though and use the passing plays in vertical routes that are in man coverage and without deep safety help. Texas ranks 18th in pass completion percentage and 34th averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. As you can already see, I do not believe that the Oklahoma State corners can get the job done in man coverage against very quick Texas wide-outs. Moreover, the OK State defensive front will get worn down over the course of the game and that makes play action an even greater scoring asset for Texas.

25* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IST will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. If you do have a money line for this game play a 3* amount in addition to the 25* play using the line.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark using the first-half line for 83% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (BAYLOR) with a good defense allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Each season for the past 6, I have had a huge dog of 17 points or more not only cover, but also win the game. I am not suggesting this is that situation, but I do want to point out that fact so that when we release these huge dogs that you look to add the money line part of the play. I am seeing Money Lines in the +600 level and some even higher. IST has played a tougher schedule than Baylor, who has only played a solid competitor in OK State last week. Baylor has given up more than 200 rushing yards in their last two games. The more IST established the ground attack the greater their chances for the ATS win and the monumental upset too.

25* graded play on Appalachian State as they take on Georgia State in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will win this game by at least 24 points.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Next up we are going to Boone, NC and using the Mountaineers of Appalachian State over the Panthers of Georgia State. The last 2 years Appalachian State has won by a combined score of 81-3 and we see no difference here. Georgia State comes in winless but had a close call in Madison earlier this year. The Mountaineers come in with a balanced offense averaging 211 yards on the ground and 172 in the air. Appalachian State had 2 rough road games against Tennessee and Miami Florida and now are coming way down in class. The Mountaineers have been a money maker at home in these type of games and look for them to get the easy win in their first conference game. Take  Appalachian State and lay the 19.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on Florida in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going to Nashville and taking the points with Vanderbilt against the Florida Gators. Florida had a nightmare second half in Knoxville last Saturday and we think the hangover will continue this week in a return to the volunteer state. Vanderbilt comes in with a 2-2 record has a pretty balanced offense and should be able to hang around against a Florida team who has a real good defense but is nothing special on offense. The Gator defense is stingy on the ground only allowing 76 yards per game and the pass defense statistically is good but the second half last week was exploited for over 300 yards. Very few if any weeks are easy on the SEC road and we look for a hard fought game at home similar to Florida's close win in the swamp last year and for the commodores to keep this one close again. Take Vanderbilt and grab the points.

25* graded play on Toledo as they take on BYU in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot to win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they commit 1 less turnover than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. BYU is a money burning 26-85 ATS (-67.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Toledo is on a serious and sustainable winning run. They are 3-0 SUATS and covered the three games by a whopping 36 points. This is certainly a step up in competition for Toledo, but one that I strongly believe they can defeat. The Toledo defense is playing extremely well and has been dominating the LOS with their size and LB quickness filling holes and shooting gaps. This is what the BYU OL has struggled with through four games. So, this is the critical matchup and obviously one that I strongly believe Toledo will dominate.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on San Francisco in NL West action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 229-130 over the last 5 seasons good for 63.8% winners and made a huge 77.4 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. Another proven system supports this play posting a 52-31 since 1997 good for 62.7% winners and made 32.1 units/unit wagered. Play ON road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (LA DODGERS) - with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 15-25 (-22.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 19-28 (-23.5 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of this season; 9-18 (-19.6 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season. Bumgarner's team's record is 3-9 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season and it is 0-6 (-9.7 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing this season. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Hill faced San Francisco on Tuesday and allowed one run with seven strikeouts in five innings. Hill is 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA while striking out 38 batters against 10 walks in seven career starts against the Giants. Bumgarner took the loss against San Diego on Wednesday after yielding five runs over six innings, including three home runs. Enrique Hernandez is 11-for-22 with three homers against Bumgarner, who owns an 0-2 record against the Dodgers with a 3.91 ERA in four outings this season. The Giants are 0-62 when trailing after eight innings this season. Take LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on San Diego in NL West action set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 46-63 (-25.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons and they are 7-19 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Jackson is 2-12 (-10.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 83-61 (+17.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Padres are 1-4 in Jackson's last 5 road starts. Padres are 1-5 in Jackson's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Padres are 0-4 in Jackson's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Padres are 0-5 in Jackson's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Shipley's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona did win in the last matchup against San Diego just 9 days ago. Jackson is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA in 12 career appearances (nine starts) against the Diamondbacks. Goldschmidt is hitting an impressive .354 against the Padres this year. If Arizona sweeps this series they'll put their rival San Diego into the bottom spot in the NL West. Take Arizona Diamondbacks. 

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Tampa Bay in AL action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 148-96 since 1997 good for 60.7% winners and made 46.7 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (TEXAS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 33-60 (-27.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 27-41 (-20.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season; 41-63 (-24.8 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season; 10-25 (-16.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season; 39-62 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season; 26-53 (-32.4 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Texas is 61-38 (+27.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season; 68-45 (+26.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season; 58-31 (+33.4 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging under 0.6 errors/game this season; 74-47 (+29.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 48-24 (+25.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season; 26-7 (+18.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Rays are 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.

Fundamental Discussion Points Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre homered versus Andriese, who took the loss against Texas on Aug. 19 as he permitted five runs over 5 1/3 innings. Darvish comes in off his finest outing of the season, when he yielded two hits and struck out nine over seven scoreless innings against Oakland. Darvish, who owns a 5-2 record at home this season, is 3-0 with 1.00 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Texas SS Elvis Andrus has gone 8-for-15 with two homers and five RBIs over his last four games to raise his average to .304. Texas is the better team and will want to wrap up home field advantage. Take Texas Rangers.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Seattle in AL West action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 101-92 over the last 5 seasons good for 52.3% and made a huge 58.8 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG under .265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA under 3.75), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 41-21 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Seattle is 12-17 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season; 29-37 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons; 8-12 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season; 27-30 (-15.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Athletics are 9-4 in Graveman's last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Graveman has been keeping the ball in the park of late, serving up just one homer over his last four turns. Miranda had his four-start winning streak snapped Saturday when he gave up three runs and three hits — two homers — in four innings at Minnesota. The Mariners are just 2-4 at home against the Athletics this season. Oakland rookie 3B Ryon Healy is 9-for-15 over his last four games. Davis leads all players in this season series with 7 homers and 12 RBIs. Oakland will want to play spoiler here. Take Oakland Athletics.

25* play on Miami as they take on Cincinnati in Thursday night football action set to start at 8:30 pm ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by less than 4 points and has an outside shot to pull the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 75% winners and made 20.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (MIAMI) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (over 7.3 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992. Lewis is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents as the coach of Cincinnati and he is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as their coach. Bengals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 4. Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Ryan Tannehill leads the Dolphins on the ground with 54 yards rushing. He continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker. Cincinnati Pro Bowl TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is not expected to make his season debut on Thursday, ESPN reported, citing a source. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring) has been held out of both practices this week, leaving his status for Thursday's game in question. Miami DE Cameron Wake recorded three sacks versus Dalton in the last meeting, with the final one resulting in a safety in overtime of a 22-20 win. Take the Miami Dolphins.

25* graded play on UCONN as they take on Houston in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 22 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2010. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Huston is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points UCONN has the passing game to stay in this game. UCONN is not an elite passing team, but they do average 233 passing yards per game that rank 65th in the nation. The Houston passing defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game , which ranks 68th best in the nation. They are excellent at stopping the run and rank 2nd in the nation in that category. Further, UCONN connects on 67% of their pass attempts. They use quick slants, and hooks, which is a strong anecdote to ward off an aggressive defensive front.

25* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they take on Pittsburgh in NL Central action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Cubs will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 166-119 over the last 5 seasons good for 58.2% winners and made 51.8 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cubs are 113-68 (+23.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons; 88-45 (+31.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons; 44-20 (+14.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Arrieta's team's record is 17-3 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons; 25-4 (+17.2 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 23-3 (+17.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Pittsburgh is 12-26 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 4-19 (-16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. over 62%) this season; 8-18 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season; 3-14 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cubs own the Pirates as they are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Pittsburgh and 20-7 in the last 27 meetings. Arrieta is 10-2 when starting against Pittsburgh with an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 0.839. Taillon started at Wrigley back on June 19th giving up three homers, 4 runs, 8 hits, and a walk in just 4 innings. Rizzo owns Pittsburgh hitting .439, 6 homeruns, and 19 runs scored this year. Also Chicago has a 3.54 ERA to Pittsburgh's 5.98 ERA in this season series. Take Chicago Cubs.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on the NY Yankees in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-19 since 1997 good for 69.4% winners and made 25.4 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - team with a good SLG (over .440) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 4-0 in Owens' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass. Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-5 in Sabathia's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Yankees are 2-10 in Sabathia's last 12 starts vs. American League East. Yankees are 1-6 in Sabathia's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-7 in Sabathia's last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Owens' lone quality start in this season came against New York on April 29, when he allowed two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings without factoring in the decision. Sabathia has gone six straight starts without a win and did not factor in the decision in any on his last four turns. Sabathia started at Boston on Sept. 18 and was reached for four runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings, bringing his total to 17 hits allowed in 10 1/3 innings against the Red Sox this season. New York RHP Adam Warren has allowed at least one run in four of his last six appearances. The famous David Ortiz won't allow his longtime nemesis sweep them in his last series against the Yankees. Take Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on Washington in NL action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 21-18 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging under 0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games against NL East opponents this season; 18-12 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games this season. Gonzalez's team's record is 11-18 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and they are 4-9 (-9.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Baker is 87-94 (-38.5 Units) against the money line in home games against NL West opponents in all games he has managed since 1997. Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 1-5 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.

Fundamental Discussion Points Miller looked ready to earn his first win since June 20 on Friday at Baltimore and left the game with the lead after scattering three hits over six scoreless innings but the bullpen could not secure the victory. Miller is 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA in seven career starts against Washington. Gonzalez managed just three quality starts in his last nine outings. The Florida native was ripped for six runs at Atlanta on Sept. 17 and could not get past the fifth at Pittsburgh on Friday while surrendering three runs on five hits and three walks in a no decision. Arizona 2B Jean Segura homered three times in the last two games to reach 20 on the season. Nationals RF Bryce Harper (thumb) and 2B Daniel Murphy (glute strain) both sat out the first two games of the series and remain day-to-day. Take Arizona Diamondbacks.

25* graded play on Miami as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 189-163 over the last 5 seasons good for 53.7% winners and made a MASSIVE 78.3 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 44-36 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 16-5 (+14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season; 35-24 (+16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. New York is 37-47 (-21.6 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Mattingly is 28-17 (+18.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better as the manager of Miami. Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 Wednesday games. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Urena came within one out of a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers on Sept. 11. He is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four appearances (two starts) versus the Mets. In the season series, Miami has limited the homers with Granderson leading the Mets in the series with only 3 homeruns. The Marlins in the season series post Yelich with a .377 average and Stanton with 6 homers. Take Miami Marlins.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Toronto in AL East action set to start at 7:07 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-36 since 1997 good for 64.7% winners and made 33 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baltimore is 28-22 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season; 94-69 (+27.4 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons; 123-100 (+28.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons; Tillman's team's record is 18-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season; 9-3 (+8.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season; 21-8 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season; 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series. Orioles are 7-0 in Tillman's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 Wednesday games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Tillman allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings at Toronto on July 31. Francisco Liriano is 8-13 with an ERA of 4.88 on the season. Blue Jays RHP Joaquin Benoit suffered a torn left calf during a benches-clearing incident against New York on Monday and is likely to miss the rest of the season. Toronto 2B Devon Travis (left shoulder) aggravated an injury in Monday's brawl and is day-to-day. Take Baltimore Orioles.

25* graded play on the UNDER in the Falcons-Saints game, action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER the total.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-40 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Quinn is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games as the coach of Atlanta. Under is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South. Under is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1-1 in Falcons last 7 road games. Under is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points This line already reflects far and away too many points being scored. Julio Jones is listed as probable in this game. These are divisional opponents, which doesn't make for a good Over play. They had great offenses and awful defenses last year as well, but in their last meeting the total was 37 points. Take the UNDER.

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on St. Louis in NL Central action set to start at 8:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. St. Louis is 10-15 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season; 10-17 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons; 9-15 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season; 2-11 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season; 33-41 (-25.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season; 7-14 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season; 20-32 (-19.7 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Garcia's team's record is 2-7 (-8.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Cardinals are 1-4 in Garcia's last 5 starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Adleman allowed only two runs and five hits over 6 1/3 innings in his last outing. Garcia was pulled from his last start Sept. 13 when he yielded two runs on three hits and two walks in 1 2/3 frames against Chicago after suffering the loss in each of his previous four turns. One of those setbacks took place at Cincinnati, where he fell to 11-5 lifetime versus the Reds despite giving up only two runs in six innings Sept. 3. Cincinnati 1B Joey Votto enters the series with a seven-game hitting streak. Take Cincinnati Reds.

25* graded play on Miami as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-33 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36.7 units/unit wagered. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 43-36 (+14.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 27-17 (+17.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season; 34-24 (+15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. New York Mets are 36-47 (-22.6 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Marlins are 10-2 in Conley's last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Marlins are 8-2 in Conley's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Marlins are 4-1 in Conley's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Following the tragic death of their ace, Miami will win this one for Fernandez. Conley was scheduled to go in Sunday's cancelled game but is instead expected to be activated from the disabled list in time for Monday's turn. Conley has been tough on the Mets in his young career, going 1-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four games - three starts. Miami 2B Derek Dietrich homered in three of his last eight games. Mets INF Wilmer Flores (wrist) could miss the rest of the season. Take Miami Marlins.

25* graded play on Toronto as they take on the NY Yankees in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At home Toronto is 7-1 (+5.9 Units) against NY Yankees this season. Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a loss. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East. Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 games on astroturf. Yankees are 1-4 in Severino's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-10 in Severino's last 11 starts. Yankees are 0-5 in Severino's last 5 road starts. Yankees are 0-5 in Severino's last 5 starts vs. American League East. Yankees are 0-6 in Severino's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series. Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 5-0 in Happ's last 5 starts during game 4 of a series. Blue Jays are 5-0 in Happ's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Blue Jays are 15-1 in Happ's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 8-1 in Happ's last 9 starts vs. American League East.

Fundamental Discussion Points Happ became baseball's second 20-game winner when he allowed two runs in five innings of a 10-2 victory at Seattle on Tuesday. He has won 14 of his last 15 decisions overall and owns a 2.39 ERA in his four meetings with the Yankees in 2016. The 33-year-old is 11-2 in 14 home starts. Severino was 0-8 with an 8.58 ERA as a starter earlier this year and is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in four games (three starts) against Toronto. Bautista has reached base in 32 straight games and has eight RBIs in his last four contests. New York rookie C Gary Sanchez is 2-for-14 with five strikeouts in four games since Wednesday. Take Toronto Blue Jays.

25* graded play on the Chicago bears as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot they will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-34 mark good for 67% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) that is a bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a solid 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Dallas is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler’s drama is certainly much better suited for the couch in front of his TV where no teammates can see the toxicity he brings to any given situation. Hoyer will be a breath of fresh air for the entire team. He is 8-4 ATS as a career road dog and brings veteran leadership to a team sorely in need of stability. Dallas rookie Elliott has underperformed through the first two weeks and he will not break out in this game either having to go against one of the best defensive fronts in football. The Bears defensive grades have not been good, but are nowhere close to reflecting the overall talent of that unit. With Cutler out, I think you’ll see that defense play with renewed heart and will make it difficult for Prescott to move the chains and sustain drives. I have to admit, that this play appears to be a reach on paper given the recent two weeks of results. However, we have seen countless games where a contrarian approach proves correct and this one is backed first by the SIM Algorithm grading.

50* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals in NL Central action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Cubs will win this game. I like taking advantage of the -2 ½ run line in these situations, which offers a very nice return normally at 2:1 line or higher. So, make this a 38* play using the money line and then a 12* play using the -2 ½ Run Line. If you do not have access to that line, then consider making a 42* play using the money line and a 8* play using the Run Line, which will be near even money risk.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cubs are a solid 26-7 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season; 31-10 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. Cardinals are a miserable 9-17 (-13.7 Units) against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games this season.

Fundamental Discussion Points Jon Lester is in peak form posting a 0.41 ERA with a 0.773 WHIP winning his last three starts, walking 1 batter and striking out 20 batters. He is 18-4  in 30 starts with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP spanning 191 innings and certainly in Cy Young discussions.

25* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Philadelphia in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Pittsburgh is a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 8 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 91-21 ATS (+67.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Philadelphia is a miserable 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams come out of the gates at 2-0 the Eagles beating the browns 29-10 and the Bears on Monday night 29-14. The Steelers come in beating the Redskins 38-16 and the Cincinnati Bengals 24-16. Carson Wentz looks like the real deal and the Philadelphia Eagles Defense has been outstanding early this season. This is the week we will get a feel for how much the defense has improved as they face the first real prolific offense. This will also put Wentz in position to make plays to move the chains and not just manage the game focused on field position. We feel this is a low number due to the first couple of weeks results and look to take the Steelers as the go to 3-0 on the season and 3-0 against the number. Although the defense has played well, the Eagles have several starters with injuries that may prevent them playing the entire game. I don’t see them having the depth to contain Antonio and Wheaten has the speed and quickness to overwhelm any man-coverage.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose by less than four points and has a good chance at pulling off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 93-47 since 1983 good for 66.4% winners and made a big 41.3 units/unit wagered. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons; 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Zimmer is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games as the coach of Minnesota. Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win. Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.

Fundamental Discussion Points Quarterback Sam Bradford was excellent in his Vikings debut, completing 22-of-31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 17-14 win over Green Bay. Bradford can lead this offense even without Peterson, who was only gaining 1.6 yards per carry. Carolina committed four turnovers last week and aren't living up to expectations so far this year. In a 2014 victory over Carolina, the Vikings kept Newton under control. He completed 18 of 35 passes for 194 yards, holding a 65.7 quarterback rating.Through 2 games the Vikings' defense ranks 5th in both opponents yards/play and opponents yards/rush. Minnesota WR Stefon Diggs’ 285 receiving yards are the second-most through two games in Vikings history, trailing only Gene Washington’s 324  in 1969. Take Minnesota Vikings.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on Arizona in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The current money line is +175, which provides a significant financial opportunity.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is also just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more; 2-13 against the money line (-17.5 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Buffalo is a solid 15-5 against the money line (+10.0 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points   Rex Ryan’s defensive mind always presents preparations for any opponent. His use of cover-0 schemes with seemingly a multitude of pre-snap looks creates read problems for even the best QBs. I do strongly believe that the Buffalo defense will be a significant factor in a Bills win today.

25* graded play on San Diego as they take on San Francisco in NL West action set to start at 8:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Diego will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-26 since 1997 good for 52.7% winners and made 33.5 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG under .250) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA under 3.00) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Francisco is 5-12 (-18.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 10-17 (-14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season; 8-15 (-18.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 31-41 (-24.4 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. Bumgarner's team's record is 2-9 (-14.6 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.San Diego is 14-10 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Padres have won seven of their last eight games against the Giants. Bumgarner is just 4-5 with a 3.55 ERA since the All-Star break and has dropped his last two starts against lowly San Diego. Posey is a poor 1-for-11 over the past three games. San Diego 2B Carlos Asuaje had his first two major league hits and scored twice Friday. Take San Diego Padres.

25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on UTEP in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SMU will win this game by 16 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play against home underdogs (UTEP) with a struggling scoring defense allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 45-17 ATS for 73% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (SOUTHERN MISS) allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games with an experienced QB facing an opponent with inexperienced QB. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt; UTEP is a miserable money burning 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points Southern Miss comes into this game with a 2-1 record off a tough loss at home against Troy.  The Golden Eagles come into this game averaging 43 points a game versus 19 for UTEP. The Eagles own all the statistical angles in this game bringing the Better Rushing offense by 88 yards per game, Passing offense by 99 yards per game. Statistically are better on the defense side of the ball allowing only 97 yards on the ground versus 243 for the miners and allow 50 plus less passing yards per game. Basically saying Southern Miss comes off a 9-5 season returning 7 Starters on offense that averaged 40 points per game last year and most of the leading tacklers return. Last year they beat this same UTEP team at home by 21 putting up over 500 yards of Offense and holding the miners to 13 points and 298 yards of total offense. Southern Miss has a big road win already this year over Kentucky out of the SEC and we look for the Golden Eagles to get off to a big start in this Conference USA Western Division Matchup and use them as our top play today in El Paso.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Seattle in AL action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-30 since 1997 good for 67.7% winners and made 32.5 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 6.50 or more over his last 10 starts. Another proven system supports this play posting a 128-99 over the last 5 seasons good for 56.4% winners and made 46.6 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SEATTLE) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP under 1.000 over his last 3 starts, with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 12-20 (-13.8 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season and they are 148-154 (-26.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Duffey's team's record is 8-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and they are 11-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series. Mariners are 1-4 in Miranda's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Twins are 5-1 in Duffey's last 6 Saturday starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Seattle was swept by the Twins in late May. Duffey, who never has opposed the Mariners, will try to rediscover the form that allowed him to go 3-0 with a 3.79 ERA over his first three starts in August. With a victory on Saturday or Sunday, Seattle will earn its first series win against the Twins since the start of the 2013 season (0-5-2). The Twins won't be a 100 loss team yet, nor lose the series on Saturday. Take Minnesota Twins.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Boston in AL East action set to start at 6:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 69.8% winners and made 29.4 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TAMPA BAY) - bad offensive team (under 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA under 3.50) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 100-87 (-21.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Red Sox are 3-7 in Porcello's last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 5-1 in Andriese's last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 5-2 in Andriese's last 7 Saturday starts. Home team is 7-1 in Torres' last 8 games behind home plate.

Fundamental Discussion Points Porcello gave up two runs and four hits in a complete-game victory over Baltimore his last time out, which followed a 1-0 loss to the same team. Even the best of pitchers tend to perform poorly their next start after a complete game outing. Corey Dickerson is 5-for-16 with three doubles and a homer versus Porcello. Andriese has won his last two starts while allowing three runs over 10 1/3 innings combined. Tampa Bay INF Brad Miller has hit 22 homers at home this season, one shy of Carlos Pena’s club record in 2007.  The Rays did win the season series the last two years. Take Tampa Bay Rays.

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Auburn in SEC action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by 7 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-6 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (AUBURN) with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Both head coaches are loved by their players, but are on the hot seat and another loss by either coach will turn the heat up on them even more. This would represent Auburn’s third home loss of the season and that unfortunately could be the final nail in his coaching coffin. The problem is the lack of consistency with the offense execution and playing against a team as strong as LSU is not the remedy. After starting the game against Texas A&M last week by completing his first six attempts, he bogged down and completed only 12 of his last 21 throws.

When he couldn't get the offense moving against the Aggies, Malzahn turned to junior college transfer James Franklin III in the fourth quarter. Franklin had two drives end with Auburn giving up the ball on downs, but he did get his team into the end zone for a late touchdown. Auburn will have no other option than to pound the ball between the tackles and I do not see that turning into any success against an LSU defense that will put 8 and 9 men in the box. Without play action capabilities resulting from an established run game, any of the Auburn QBs will be facing a mountain of pressure.

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ Mississippi State – UMASS in NCAA set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that 47 or fewer points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion PointsMS 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 19-5 UNDER (+13.5 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MS is a solid 51-24 UNDER (+24.6 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points UMASS defense has played well against strong competition allowing 24 to Florida, 26 to BC, and 13 to FL International. MS is coming off a very tough loss at LSU losing 23-20 and will certainly be focused on the defensive end – as they are EVERY game. They do not possess the high-power offense that is an inherent characteristic of the SEC. They play ball control and field position first and this will be evident throughout this game. Take the ‘UNDER’

25* graded play ‘OVER’ Purdue – Nevada in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 67 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points I also like Nevada as a 10* Titan play. In addition, add no more than 5* play using Nevada and the ‘over’ in a reverse action wager. So, if you wager $10/star like the majority of our clients, this would be a $50 parlay wager that will pay $200 if both sides hit. If this play wins 1 and loses 1 then the net loss will be $60 and if both should lose then the loss is $120. These are very rare releases, but when we get a dog like this one that projections show can win the game, it opens up the educated and disciplined opportunity to engage in a reverse action risk.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Nevada is a solid 34-19 OVER (+13.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points Blough has served up far too many interceptions so far this season and I strongly believe you will see a different playbook designed for him and the offense to maximize his talents and play makers surrounding him in a balanced attack. I expect both teams to have more than 450 yards in offense which translates to 75 points of offense at 12 yards per point execution rate.

25* graded play on San Diego as they take on San Francisco in NL West action set to start at 10:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Diego will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 79-58 over the last 5 seasons good for 57.7% winners and made 38.5 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SAN DIEGO) - team with a terrible SLG (under .390) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP under 1.250) -NL, playing on Friday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 4-12 (-19.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 9-17 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season; 15-25 (-22.9 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season; 15-25 (-22.9 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. San Diego is 33-18 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; is 8-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in home games after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season; 15-9 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season. Giants are 0-4 in Suarez's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. Giants are 0-5 in Suarez's last 5 starts. Padres are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Suarez lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in his last turn when he gave up two runs and five hits over five innings. He has dropped three straight decisions and hasn't notched a victory since beating Pittsburgh on June 23. Jackson defeated San Francisco in his San Diego debut on July 17 when he allowed three runs (two earned) and one hit in 6 1/3 innings. Giants 2B Joe Panik has 1 hit in 25 at-bats during his past eight games. San Diego RF prospect Hunter Renfroe — who was MVP of the Pacific Coast League this season — went 2-for-4 on Thursday in his first major-league start. Take San Diego Padres.

25* graded play on LA Dodgers as they take on Colorado in NL West action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-9 over the last 5 seasons good for 82% winners and made 32 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams (COLORADO) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), in the second half of the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 84-34 over the last 5 seasons good for 71.2% winners and made 38 units/unit wagered. Play ON home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (LA DODGERS) - poor hitting team (AVG under .250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The LA Dodgers are 165-95 (+46.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season since 1997. Colorado is 3-12 (-10.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season; 17-49 (-26.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 330-508 (-98.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997; 33-81 (-34.7 Units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Rockies are 15-41 in their last 56 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. Rockies are 1-4 in Grays last 5 Friday starts. Rockies are 3-14 in Grays last 17 road starts. Dodgers are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. National League West. Dodgers are 14-5 in their last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 41-16 in their last 57 home games. Dodgers are 4-1 in Kazmirs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.

Fundamental Discussion Points Gray has struggled on the road with a 3-6 mark and 4.56 ERA in 13 starts. Kazmir is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three career starts against the Rockies, including a no-decision July 2 when he struck out 10 while pitching six innings of three-hit shutout ball. Colorado RF Carlos Gonzalez, who is one RBI from reaching 100 for the second time, is hitless in 11 career at-bats against Kazmir. Los Angeles rookie SS Corey Seager is 5-for-9 with a homer against Gray. Take Los Angeles Dodgers.

25* graded play on LA Angels as they take on Houston in AL West action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-18 over the last 5 seasons good for 68.4% winners and made 23.1 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (LA ANGELS) - poor offensive team - scoring under 4.7 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or more over his last 5 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LA Angels are 77-49 (+27.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons and they are 12-6 (+8.9 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Fister's team's record is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Hinch is 27-42 (-24.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 in all games he has managed since 1997. Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Astros are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Astros are 0-4 in Fister's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. Astros are 0-4 in Fister's last 4 starts vs. American League West. Astros are 0-4 in Fister's last 4 home starts. Astros are 0-5 in Fister's last 5 starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Albert Pujols has hit more home runs against the Houston Astros than versus any other team and looks to go deep for the second straight game. Meyer picked up his first major-league victory in his last turn, when he struck out seven while scattering two hits over five scoreless innings. Fister is 0-4 with a horrific 10.71 ERA over his last five starts and hasn't lasted more than five innings during the stretch. He has allowed five homers during that span and has given up six or more earned runs in three of the defeats. Angels SS Andrelton Simmons recorded two hits on Thursday and is batting .306 in 62 at-bats this month. Take Los Angeles Angels.

25* graded play on TCU as they take on SMU in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 24 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a solid 39-11 ATS (+26.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; SMU is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 150-200 yards. Patterson is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of TCU.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU does have a big showdown coming up next week against Oklahoma. However, this is a short drive for TCU fans and there could easily be more TCU fans in the stands than the hometown folks. Plus, TCU does have the better coaching and that staff will not allow TCU to have any letdown in this game and will use this game as a full dress rehearsal for Oklahoma.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on Colorado in NL West action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-6 over the last 5 seasons good for 87.8% winners and made 31.2 units/unit wagered. Play against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (COLORADO) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colorado is 16-43 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 17-49 (-26.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 30-85 (-32.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons. Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 vs. National League West. Dodgers are 13-5 in their last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 40-16 in their last 56 home games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Chatwood is looking to bounce back from a rough outing against San Diego on Friday when he allowed seven runs on eight hits over five innings at Coors Field. Anderson was encouraged after his last rehab appearance, when he allowed three hits and one run in five innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City in the Pacific Coast League playoffs. Arenado is 5-for-10 with a home run against Anderson, who has gone 1-0 with a 4.43 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies. Take LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Houston Texans in NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game. Yes, this does factor in the all of the injuries and without Gronk playing.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1983. Play on home teams (NEW ENGLAND) off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards since 1992; Patriots are a remarkable 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) as a home underdog;

Here is a money line system that under scores the strength of this play and has produced a 21-4 mark for 84% winners since 1983. Play against any team using the money line (NEW ENGLAND) off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, when playing on a Thursday.

Fundamental Discussion Points NE is by far the best managed team in the NFL and arguably the best ever in the history of the NFL. Whether you like them or hate them, you have to give credit to how the program is run from a team first attitude. So many times when the Patriots looked wrecked by injuries a new star appears on the scene or a 3rd string player steps and does his job, which in turn allows teammates to make even bigger plays. That unity is still there and based on the Algorithm projections I am confident the Patriots will move to 3-0 on the season.

25* graded play on Milwaukee as they take on Pittsburgh in NL Central action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 105-79 over the last 5 seasons good for 57.1% winners and made 45.5 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (PITTSBURGH) - with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Milwaukee is 40-35 (+7.9 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season; 27-19 (+17.2 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season; 22-15 (+12.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season; 13-8 (+10.6 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games this season. Pittsburgh is 8-16 (-11.8 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season. Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pirates are 1-5 in Vogelsong's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Pirates are 1-7 in Vogelsong's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest. Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 4-1 in Anderson's last 5 home starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Vogelsong is winless in his last four starts and did not record an out in the sixth inning during any of them. He yielded six runs - four earned - over 4 2/3 frames at Cincinnati last time out. Anderson’s only loss in his last 12 starts came against Pittsburgh on Aug. 28, but he is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in four outings versus the Pirates this season. Gregory Polanco is just 4-for-17 versus Anderson. Brewers UTIL Hernan Perez has hit safely in his last five games and is 18-for-58 with three homers, 10 runs scored and 11 RBIs against the Pirates this season. Take Milwaukee Brewers.

25* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a major upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on a home team during the first four weeks of the season (GEORGIA TECH) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. This remarkable system is 6-0 ATS over the L5 seasons and 11-1 over the L10 seasons. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 29-24 for 55% winners, BUT has made 34.2 units/unit wagered averaging a +201 DOG play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (GEORGIA TECH) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is just 8-19 against the money line (-34.5 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; GT is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Wreck, as we all know, has an offense designed from the triple option and involves power running between the tackles augmented by the treat of option plays attacking the perimeter of the defense. Another area that favors GT is penalties. If a DOG is going to trip up a top-10 opponent, then playing without mental mistakes and penalties is critical to attaining that goal. In three games Clemson has been flagged 20 times for 185 yards, while GT has been flagged just 8 times for 93 yards.

25* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 187-160 over the last 5 seasons good for 53.9% winners and made a MASSIVE 79.8 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Philly is 13-7 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season; 37-35 (+18.0 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 22-15 (+14.6 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive overs this season; 14-8 (+8.9 Units) against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. NY Mets are 2-8 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season this season and they are 9-21 (-21.5 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League East.

Fundamental Discussion Points Morgan has allowed two or fewer runs in four straight starts. Mets RF Jay Bruce struck out in the ninth as a pinch hitter in Wednesday's loss and is 3-for-38 over his last 12 games. Phillies 1B Tommy Joseph is batting .480 with three home runs and eight RBIs during a seven-game hitting streak. Phillies love to play spoiler for their New York rivals. Take Philadelphia Phillies.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on the NY Yankees in AL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-22 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 27.3 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (NY YANKEES) - bad offensive team (under 4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA under 4.20) (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.Another proven system supports this play posting a 60-34 since 1997 good for 63.8% winners and made 38.2 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NY Yankees are 141-140 (-50.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997: 12-27 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons; 8-23 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season. At home Tampa Bay is 4-2 (+2.1 Units) against NY Yankees this season. Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League East. Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games on astroturf. Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games. Rays are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Rays are 5-1 in Cobbs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Tanaka was superb again in his last outing, only to watch his bullpen unravel in the ninth in a stunning 7-5 defeat. That same bullpen has given up 32 homers on the road this season. Kevin Kiermaier is 4-for-8 versus Tanaka.  Cobb permitted only one run on two hits over 6 2/3 innings at Toronto last time out. He is 5-2 with a 2.13 ERA against New York. In the season series the Rays are outhitting the Yanks (.243 to .237) and allowing less runs (3.85 ERA) compared to New York (4.59 ERA). Take Tampa Bay Rays.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on Baltimore in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-11 since 1997 good for 81.4% winners and made 34.9 units/unit wagered. Play against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 216-187 (+44.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game since 1997; 33-24 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 29-15 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons; 31-16 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. Baltimore is 79-100 (-39.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 since 1997. Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Orioles are 2-5 in Jimenezs last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. Red Sox are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Baltimore. Red Sox are 6-1 in Buchholz's last 7 road starts vs. Orioles.

Fundamental Discussion Points Buchholz held the New York Yankees to two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks in six innings on Friday. Jimenez went seven innings and allowed four runs on Friday. He made two starts against Boston in the first half of the season and was lit up for a total of nine runs in 10 innings. Baltimore 3B Manny Machado is 2-for-17 in the last five games. Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia (knee) sat out Tuesday but is expected to be back in the lineup on Wednesday. Boston is almost exactly a 1.00 ERA lower than Baltimore in the season series. Take Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Houston in AL West action set to start at 3:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-26 since 1997 good for 61.2% and made 30.4 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (OAKLAND) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 24-30 (-15.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 44-53 (-24.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 19-25 (-16.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 379-244 (+102.7 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997. Athletics are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Home team is 6-0 in Fagan's last 6 games behind home plate vs. Houston. Home team is 6-1 in Fagan's last 7 Wednesday games behind home plate.

Fundamental Discussion Points Mengden is coming off the best outing of his brief time in the major leagues, a victory at Kansas City on Thursday in which he scattered three hits over a career-high seven innings. Oakland SS Marcus Semien is 7-for-15 with three doubles and a homer against McHugh. After beating the A's 2-1 in 10 innings on Tuesday night, Houston may get fatigued to play in the afternoon today. Taking 10 innings to beat lowly Oakland may be a warning sign for this game. Take Oakland Athletics.

50* graded play on Boston as they take on Baltimore in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 77-47 since 1997 good for 62.1% winners and made 46.5 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BOSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%, playing on Tuesday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 215-187 (+43.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game since 1997; 32-24 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 26-15 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season; 30-16 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win. Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 Tuesday starts. Orioles are 4-9 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Fundamental Discussion Points Rodriguez tossed four hitless innings at Baltimore on Aug. 16 before leaving with an injury. Gausman is 3-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 13 career games - eight starts - against Boston. Betts is batting .500 with eight home runs and 15 RBIs in seven games at Baltimore this season. Boston 1B Hanley Ramirez, who was named AL Co-Player of the Week on Monday, is 10-for-20 with four home runs and nine RBIs in the last five games. Boston has the lower ERA in the season series (4.86 to 5.67) and throughout the entire season (4.06 to 4.37). Expect the Sox to continue with their dominant bats in this game. Take Boston Red Sox.

35* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Bears will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles have been a money losing 3-22 ATS (-21.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards. Fox is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached. Week 1 was a great debut for Wentz and the Eagles as they cruised to an easy victory and covered by double digits ATS. However, they are a young and inexperienced team at HC, QB, and other positions. Rookie NFL HC off a Week1 win and are on the road in Week 2 are just 1-12 and when they are off a double-digit ATS win in Week 1 are a horrifying 1-11-1 ATS

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler is an experienced QB that has trouble all his career establishing consistency on a week-by-week basis. However, we do know he responds especially well after a horrid drubbing and we believe he will do just that against the Eagles.

A matchup to watch is how the Bears handle Eagles DT Fletcher Cox. Kyle Long is one of the best RG in the league and he is one of the few that can handle Cox by himself. By not needed a double team to block/pass protect Cox, the Bears RBs will be running far more short slants, ins, and outs that Cutler can hit in space.

Eagles OL is certainly within the second-best quartile in the NFL. They added Brandon Brooks from the Texans, who has improved his pass grade in every year and is one of the better run blocking guards in the NFL. However, this unit will be matched up against arguable a top-3 defensive front and one that will look to play far better than they did in Week 1. Having a rookie starter at QB, you will see the Bears lining up all sorts of schemes to bring confusion to his QB reads/progressions and will certainly bring heat from varying spots on the field and at different times after the snap.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will keep this game within 4 points and has an outside shot to pull off an upset.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.4% winners and made 32 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) after scoring 30 points or more last game since 1992; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; is 5-3 straight up against Arizona since 1992. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2. Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Cardinals are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona rookie Williams got burned a handful of times by the Patriots and Winston surely will be looking to pick on him if he's still in the starting lineup. Winston was named the NFC's Offensive Player of the Week for his 281-yard, four-TD performance in the opener. He threw those 4 TDs to 4 different receivers. Tyrann Mathieu is easing his way back after undergoing major knee surgery in the winter. He's playing more as a straight center fielder in the secondary; not as the unpredictable blitzer and wild tackler and ball hawk the NFL is used to seeing. This lack of play-making ability against Winston and his offense will prove to be a difference. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

25* graded play on New England as they take on Miami in AFC East Divisional matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NE will win this game by at least 11 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. NE is a solid 45-14 ATS (+29.6 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 net passing yards; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow less than 75 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 46-9 ATS (+36.1 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points ­Bill Belicheck and the coaching staff did an outstanding job last week in the desert preparing Jimmy Garrapolo in his first start for Tom Brady (Deflategate Suspension). We now look for a similar performance at home in a division game against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were in a physical game last week in Seattle. The offense struggled against the Seahawks and the Defense gave up a late score to end the game. The Patriots get back more offensive weapons for this game mainly Rob Gronkowski and we don't see how the Miami offense will keep up with the Patriots. Take New England and lay the 6 1\2.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on Arizona in NL West action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-33 since 1997 good for 67.3% winners and made 36.8 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (ARIZONA) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a below avg. starter (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 15-49 (-28.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 13-29 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging under 0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 29-46 (-23.2 Units) against the money line in home games this season.Miller's team's record is 2-18 (-15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 0-10 (-11.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 1-16 (-16.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 3-19 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Norris's team's record is 23-8 (+17.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a loss.

Fundamental Discussion Points Stewart earned his first major-league victory by beating Arizona on Sept. 7, when he gave up one run and five hits in five innings. Miller lost to the Dodgers on Sept. 6 as he gave up five runs - four earned - and 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings to drop to 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in six career appearances (four starts). He is winless in his last six overall starts, going 0-5 with an 8.35 ERA, and has allowed six or more earned runs on three occasions. Miller is 0-7 with a 7.85 ERA and a .332 batting average against in nine home turns this season. Take LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on the action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game.    Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a ­­36-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is a team that had a winning record last season.

Fundamental Discussion Points Coming back with the USC Trojans getting 9 1\2 from the Stanford Cardinal, as we said last week the Trojans were embarrassed in Week 1 against Alabama and then easily covered the 16 last week against Utah State, holding the Aggies to their lowest total in a number of years. Stanford beat USC twice last year winning by 10 during the season and 19 in the Conference Championship game. Stanford lost several Offensive Lineman to graduation and struggled at times to move the ball against Kansas State but have 2 weeks to prepare for this game and probably have the best player on the field in Christian McCaffrey and bring an improved Defense. USC does have playmakers and should have learned something playing against the Alabama Defense. Look for the Trojan Offense to score enough points to keep this game close similar to the Trojans last trip up the coast in 2014. Take USC and the points.

Ryan’s 25* NCAA ‘Upset Alert’ Titan

25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Texas A&M in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-18 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 1992. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) - after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. A&M is a money burning 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt; 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more and allowing

Ryan’s 25* SEC ‘Upset Alert’ Titan; 14-2 ATS situation

35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on UL-Monroe in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will win this game by 28 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LM is just 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) in road games when they score 14 or less points; 10-38 ATS (-31.8 Units) when they gain less than 4 total yards per play; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when they gain 3.5 to 4 total yards per play; GS is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Georgia Southern has been a model of consistency and one of the more physical teams in the Sunbelt Conference. They typically control the line of scrimmage and wear down their opponents. Last year Ga Southern went to Monroe and put up 51 points and won by 20. Moreover, they return all starters on the defensive front and this will create a mountain of issues for LM to just move the chains. UL Monroe comes off a 2-9 season and only returns 3 starters from last years’ weak defense. We look for the GS offense to put up significant numbers but the defense to clamp down and keep the Warhawk offense to a couple of scores, if that, and easily cover this spread.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on the NY Yankees in AL East rivalry action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New York is 9-20 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season and they are 8-21 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season. Price's team's record is 83-36 (+32.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. Farrell is 53-39 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in September games as the manager of Boston. Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. Red Sox are 7-0 in Price's last 7 starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Mitchell struggled in his second start since breaking a toe in spring training, allowing six runs (two earned) on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings in an 8-2 setback to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. Price owns a 14-9 career mark against the Yankees and a 9-3 record at home this season. Take Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on University of New Mexico as they take on Rutgers University in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNM will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 since 1992 good for 75.5% winners and made 23.8 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 9 or more defensive starters returning. Another interesting system supports this play going 22-2 ATS: Play on any college football road team off a SU double-digit non-conference road favorite loss. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rutgers is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992 and they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after a win by 35 or more points since 1992. Davie is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of New Mexico. Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Scarlet Knights are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Fundamental Discussion Points While still limited in his overall effectiveness, quarterback Chris Laviano was able to make some positive plays in the passing game against Howard. The redshirt junior, who could be playing for his job against New Mexico, only managed to connect with 50 percent of his passes for 137 yards. Giovanni Rescigno and Tylin Oden each saw time at quarterback for Rutgers in the second half against Howard, but neither attempted a pass. The Lobos' leading rusher Teriyon Gipson will miss the game while in the concussion protocol. New Mexico has several other capable runners including Tyrone Owens, and quarterback Austin Apodaca's ability to run and pass can provide a tough test for any defense. Take New Mexico Lobos.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on Arizona in NL West action set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 77-30 since 1997 good for 72% winners and made 34.6 units/unit wagered. Play on all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG under .250) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA over 4.50), playing on Friday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 14-49 (-30.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 12-29 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 4-16 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging under 0.5 errors/game this season; 9-24 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons; 25-53 (-32.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season; 11-20 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League West. Dodgers are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 4-1 in Maeda's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Dodgers are 4-1 in Maeda's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. Diamondbacks are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series. Diamondbacks are 2-9 in their last 11 Friday games. Dodgers are 39-15 in the last 54 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Los Angeles rookie Corey Seager is batting .333 with six multi-hit efforts this month and is 5-for-6 with two homers against scheduled Arizona starter Zack Greinke. Maeda defeated Arizona in his previous start, when he struck out eight and gave up one run and three hits in 6 1/3 frames to improve to 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in five starts against the Diamondbacks. Greinke has lost back-to-back starts after serving up five homers while being rocked for eight runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings by the Dodgers on Sept. 5. The former Los Angeles pitcher is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA against his ex-teammates this season. Take LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Miami in NL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 29-37 (-14.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season; 15-22 (-14.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season; 16-37 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Philly is 43-38 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season and they are 237-170 (+55.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 since 1997. Philadelphia is 33-23 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Marlins are 2-6 in Koehler's last 8 road starts. Marlins are 0-4 in Koehler's last 4 starts. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Koehler surrendered eight homers in his last six games - including three in five innings on Saturday in a 5-0 setback to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Morgan has a 3.64 ERA in his last five starts. Morgan's lone win in that run was a 4-3 victory over Miami on Sept. 6, as he permitted just one run on five hits in six frames. Miami SS Adeiny Hechavarria is mired in a 1-for-14 stretch. Phillies 2B Cesar Hernandez has hit safely in nine of his last 11 contests and is batting .344 with six runs scored in 16 games versus the Marlins in 2016. Miami 3B Martin Prado is  0-for-6 versus Morgan in his career. Take the Phillies. 

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Baltimore in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-28 over the last 5 seasons good for 62.2% winners and made 18.6 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP under 0.800 over his last 3 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 35-23 (+16.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 33-44 (-16.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Archer has pitched well over the last two months, allowing three runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts. The Rays have won four of their last five contests – all against teams in the chase for the division crown. The play here is that they will continue that magic to keep playing spoiler to their own division. Tampa Bay OF-DH Corey Dickerson boasts a nine-game hitting streak, going 17-for-35 with eight RBIs in that span.  Take Tampa Bay Rays.

25* graded play on St. Louis as they take on San Francisco in NL action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that St. Louis will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. St. Louis is 20-10 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 20-9 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging under 0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 17-8 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season; San Fran is 10-18 (-18.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season this season and they are 6-15 (-16.9 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season. Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. National League West. Cardinals are 4-1 in Wainwright's last 5 Thursday starts. Cardinals are 9-3 in Wainwright's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points Wainwright allowed one run, six hits and struck out seven in eight innings of a 5-1 victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. His most recent start against St. Louis was on June 3 when he allowed two runs in seven innings. Matt Adams is 6-for-16 with a home run versus Cueto, who is 6-8 with a 3.88 in 21 starts against the Cardinals. The Giants are the major league-worst 20-35 since the All-Star break. The Cardinals have an even 4.00 ERA (0.68 lower than the Giants) and have Carpenter hitting at a .545 clip in this season series. Take St. Louis Cardinals.

25* graded play on the LA Angels as they take on Toronto in AL action set to start at 10:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 99-80 over the last 5 seasons good for 55.3% winners and made 51.6 units/unit wagered. Play against road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 42-54 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and they are 30-43 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Los Angeles is 75-47 (+26.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Gibbons is 29-57 (-37.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season as the manager of Toronto. Scioscia is 402-367 (+50.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) as the manager of the Angels. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 road games. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Blue Jays are 1-6 in Happ's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. Angels are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Angels are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Happ has struggled against the Angels with an 0-5 mark and 7.83 ERA in five career outings, including a loss Aug. 25 when he gave up four runs and six hits in five innings. He has experienced struggles with Kole Calhoun (5-for-10, two homers) and Trout (4-for-11). Toronto 1B Edwin Encarnacion, who leads the AL with 116 RBIs, was hitless in nine at-bats in the Tampa Bay series. Angels SS Andrelton Simmons (hand) could return after a three-game absence. Angels in the season series are posting a 3.81 ERA while the Blue Jays are struggling with a 5.33 ERA this series. Take LA Angels.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on the NY Jets in AFC East action set to start at 6:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a miserable 2-9 against the money line (-8.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; Buffalo is a stout 17-8 against the money line (+11.3 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt and are 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt

Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams start the season off with losses and it already a[ears that the Patriots – even if Brady did not play one game – would easily win the Division. However, this is just Week 2 and getting to 0.500 may prove to be just what Buffalo needs in order to contend for a wild card berth.

Buffalo significantly underperformed it’s DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) in Week 1 and teams that have missed the average by two standard deviations or more from their mean have a very strong tendency to outperform their mean in the following week. This same concept also applies to Buffalo’s offense so we have a powerful combination of a team, in needs of a win at home, having played horrid football in the previous week. Buffalo will get much better use of their ground attack with McCoy and give Tyrod a chance to use play action pass to open up the middle of the field and gain that extra second to execute plays. TE Charles Clay had an excellent game in Week 1 and I expect him to be a key ingredient to this win tonight.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Kansas City in AL action set to start at 7:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-41 over the last 5 seasons good for 59% winners and made 48.5 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG under .265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA under 3.33), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas City is 260-377 (-107.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997; 16-23 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons; 10-22 (-13.4 Units) against the money line against AL West opponents this season. Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central. Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Royals are 2-5 in their last 7 overall. Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 games after losing the first 3 games of a series. Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. Royals are 1-4 in Volquez's last 5 starts vs. American League West. Royals are 1-4 in Volquez's last 5 home starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Yonder Alonso went 3-for-4 and joined Khris Davis and Marcus Semien with two RBIs for Oakland, which has won three in a row for the first time since posting three straight one-run victories over Baltimore from Aug. 8-10. Alonso has driven in six runs during his four-game RBI streak and has hit safely in six of his last seven contests. Mengden pitched well against Seattle on Friday, allowing two runs over five frames. Volquez has yielded four runs in six of his last seven outings. In this season series Oakland has posted a stellar 2.00 ERA while KC has a horrid 6.23 ERA. Take Oakland Athletics.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Houston in AL West action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is 38-23 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 57-36 (+25.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season; 48-20 (+32.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season; 62-40 (+27.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season; 57-30 (+33.1 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging under 0.6 errors/game this season; 63-39 (+28.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season. Houston is 11-19 (-12.4 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League West. Rangers are 24-8 in their last 32 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Astros are 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Astros are 1-8 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Astros are 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Holland defeated the Astros on Sept. 3, when he gave up two runs and six hits in six innings to improve to 5-2 with a 4.19 ERA in 12 career starts versus Houston. Musgrove suffered the loss on Sept. 3, when he was hammered for five runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 frames. He has served up homers to Beltre (3-for-6) and Nomar Mazara (2-for-6). Astros' RF George Springer is 0-for-9 in the series and hitless in 14 at-bats over his last four games. Take Texas Rangers.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Kansas City in AL action set to start at 7:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas City is 10-21 (-11.8 Units) against the money line against AL West opponents this season. Oakland is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against KC this season. Melvin is 67-52 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 as the manager of Oakland. Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central. Athletics are 6-1 in Manaea's last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 home games. Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Royals are 0-4 in Ventura's last 4 starts vs. American League West.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Royals have dropped eight of their last 13 overall, yielding at least five runs in each setback. Manaea has been done in by a lack of run support en route to a 2-4 record in his last 10 outings, yielding just 20 earned runs in that span. Ventura suffered a loss on Friday after allowing five runs and a season-high 10 hits in seven innings of a 7-2 road setback against the Chicago White Sox. He also struggled in his last encounter with the Athletics, permitting five runs in 3 1/3 frames to take the loss. Athletics SS Marcus Semien has recorded a homer and four RBIs in the series and is 3-for-6 with two blasts and four RBIs versus Ventura. Royals LF Alex Gordon is 0-for-10 with four strikeouts in his last three contests.Take Oakland Athletics.

25* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on the NY Yankees in Inter-league action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kershaw's team's record is 57-21 (+27.1 Units) against the money line in day games in his career. Pineda's team's record is 3-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 earned runs or less in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games. Dodgers are 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 7-0 in Kershaw's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 Wednesday starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw has only allowed two runs in 15 career innings against New York and is 12-4 with a 2.28 ERA in 27 interleague starts. Pineda is winless in his last six starts and allowed two runs in 4 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay on Friday but was pulled with runners at the corners and the game on the line. He is upset about the quick pull, while his season stats are 6-11 with a high 5.07 ERA, considering he's facing the Dodgers line-up. Take LA Dodgers.

50* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on the NY Yankees in Inter-league action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Yankees are 28-42 (-21.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 3 seasons and they are are 54-70 (-22.6 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.. Sabathia's team's record is 28-35 (-22.9 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter since 1997. Girardi is 8-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 in all games he has managed since 1997. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 overall. Dodgers are 21-7 in their last 28 Tuesday games. Dodgers are 4-0 in Urias' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 8-1 in Urias' last 9 starts. Yankees are 2-6 in Sabathias last 8 home starts. Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Yankees are 0-6 in Sabathia's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Urias has not lost since being recalled at the beginning of August and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five appearances. Sabathia is winless in his last three starts and was bounced after four innings against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. The hefty veteran surrendered three runs - all on solo home runs - and seven hits in the outing and has yielded 13 homers in his last nine outings. Sabathia is making his third interleague start of the season and was rocked for 11 runs - 10 earned - and 15 hits over 10 total innings in his two previous chances against NL teams. Dodgers RF Yasiel Puig homered on Monday and has three blasts in 14 at-bats since returning from the minors. New York rookie 1B Tyler Austin is 0-for-9 with eight strikeouts in his last three games. Take LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Houston AL West action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is 37-23 (+18.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 56-35 (+25.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season; 61-39 (+27.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season; 47-20 (+31.3 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season; 56-30 (+31.9 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging under 0.6 errors/game this season; 85-58 (+31.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.. Houston is a bad  6-15 (-14.5 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. Fister's team's record is 1-9 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series. Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games. Rangers are 8-2 in Perez's last 10 starts vs. American League West. Astros are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. Astros are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Astros are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Perez is coming off back-to-back victories over Seattle in which he allowed four runs — two earned — over 12 innings. Fister looks to halt a three-start losing streak during which he has yielded 18 runs — 15 earned — and 26 hits over 12 1/3 innings while registering only three strikeouts. He has worked more than 4 1/3 frames just once in his last five overall turns and is 0-5 in his last seven outings at home. Fister dropped to 5-6 with a 5.18 ERA in 14 career starts versus the Rangers on Sept. 2, when he was tagged for eight runs — seven earned — and 10 hits in only 3 2/3 innings at Texas. Take Texas Rangers.

25* graded play on Miami as they take on Atlanta in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 33-26 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season and they are 21-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.. Atlanta is 96-125 (-36.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 40-60 (-22.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 14-36 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season. Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League East. Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 overall. Braves are 1-6 in Foltynewicz's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cashner matched a season high with nine strikeouts and scattered four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a 6-0 rout of Philadelphia on Wednesday. Foltynewicz owns a 1-0 mark in two career meetings with the Marlins but permitted three runs in three innings on June 30 before his evening ended following a 68-minute rain delay. Miami 2B Dee Gordon has hit safely in four straight games and five of his last six. Take the better team, Miami Marlins.

25* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on the NY Yankees in Inter-league action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Yankees are 258-208 (-89.0 Units) against the money line after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games since 1997. Girardi is 79-86 (-32.2 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off as the manager of New York. Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 Monday games. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 overall. Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Fundamental Discussion Points De Leon picked up the win in his major-league debut on Sept. 4 against San Diego, allowing three earned runs and five hits in six innings while striking out nine. The 24-year-old went 7-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 111 strikeouts in 86 1/3 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City. Mitchell posted a 4.29 ERA in six minor league starts prior to being recalled. Yankees SS Didi Gregorius is 3-for-34 this month. Gregorius still leads the Yankees this season in average, hitting .273 as opposed to Seager leading the Dodgers with a .319 average. Dodgers have a team ERA of 3.72 while the Yankees have an ERA of 4.17. Take the LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on San Diego as they take on Colorado in NL West action set to start at 4:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 131-97 mark good for 58% winners and has made 61 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SAN DIEGO) below average NL hitting team batting =5.00), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Colorado is just 12-25 (-18.2 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. 

25* graded play on the Angels as they take on the Rangers in AL West action set to start at 3:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Weaver is a solid 29-6 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record); 44-14 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game since 1997. (Team's Record) 42-14 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record) 

Fundamental Discussion Points Even comedians are now poking fun at Weaver’s 82-84 MPH fastball and 33 HR allowed. However, he still has that pinpoint control that gets batters swinging off balance and not squaring up the ball. He has won 2 of this last three starts and his team has been hitting much better in run-scoring situations.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 1:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will Atlanta win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-25 mark good for 62% winners and has made 31 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged a very nice +133 DOG play as well. Play against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (NY METS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL), good power team averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season.

Fundamental Discussion Points Perez has really struggled in his last 2 starts, but he is now pitching at home against a weak offense. He has posted a 3.25 ERA with a 1.012 WHIP in 5 starts. Take Atlanta

25* graded play on San Diego as they take on Kansas City in AFC West action set to start at 1:00 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Diego will lose this game by less than 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-30 over the last 10 seasons good for 67% winners and made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 60-33 ATS (+23.7 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992 and they are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. McCoy is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a road underdog as the coach of San Diego. Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in September. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points The opening week of the NFL regular season is about gauging public perception and taking advantage of what might well be an inflated spread. I think this game falls into the category. The Chiefs are widely perceived as a team that has a great chance to get back to the playoffs for a second straight year. The Chargers are widely considered to be the likely last-place team in the AFC West and one of the weakest entries in the league. But in the opening week of the season, one of my favorite maneuvers is to zero in on divisional road dogs that were below .500 the prior season, particularly if they’re facing an opponent that was a playoff team. The rationale here is that the favorite will be priced a little too high based on that public perception and that creates value on the underdog. Fact is, if you check out the results of Week One games that have fit this scenario, taking the points has been extremely profitable.

25* graded play on Chicago as they take on Houston in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a great shot at getting the upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chicago is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; Fox is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached

Fundamental Discussion Points Chicago’s biggest asset and a vastly under rated group is their defensive front seven. 2016 additions Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd, and Jonathan Bullard were infused with Eddie Goldman and Pernell McPhee from last year to complete a very strong group that is perhaps one of the top-3 in the NFL. Freeman was the top graded LB against the run last season and now they add Travathan, who also ranked in the top-10 last season. Pushing the pocket from the interior shouldn’t be a problem with Hicks, who managed 18 pressures (seven knockdowns) a season ago, and Jonathan Bullard lined up at end. The latter’s skill-set appears well-suited to the five-technique position. This is the big key for this matchup and I do strongly believe that the Bears defensive front will eliminate Houston’s ground attack and subsequent paly action pass plays, whose success is dependent on an established ground game. Houston is one of the most run dominant teams, but with Osweiler under center, Chicago will look to force him to move to the chains with his arm and decision making, which was largely inconsistent at best in 2015. Take the Bears.

25* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. JAX is a solid 61-22 ATS (+36.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Further, JAX is 21-10 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points JAX is the most improved team in the NFL based on our grading and I also like taking the ‘over’ in Season WINS. This team has the potential to make the playoffs or at least be in playoff contention for the majority of the season. They are also in a division that is wide open with no dominant team in its’ mix. After acquiring up to five new defensive starters in free agency and the draft this offseason, both established and young talent on the defense will augment an improved offense — one that rose from the lowest-graded unit in 2014 to 16th in 2016. Bortles improved last season and is set to take his game to a higher level benefitting from the best WR duo in the league in Hurns and Robinson. The Packers are obviously a very good elite team. However, their LB and defensive front 7 are not even in the top half of the league. Bortles will get the run established and then can use play action where he will have plenty of time to scan the field and make solid decisions. Jax wins this one.

25* graded play on San Diego State as they take on California in Western action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by more than 9 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is 36-96 ATS (-69.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 13-52 ATS (-44.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1992; 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. SDST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Golden Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Golden Bears are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on grass. Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Aztecs are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Aztecs are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Defensively, the Golden Bears allowed 248 yards on the ground against Hawaii and will need an improved effort to slow down Pumphrey, the nation’s active leader in rushing yards (4,370), all-purpose yards (5,284) and 100-yard rushing games (22). Running back Khalfani Muhammad ran for 96 yards on 10 carries in the opener but could have trouble finding holes against an Aztecs defense that ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (106.2) since the start of last season. The home team has won all seven meetings. San Diego State has gone a school-record 13 games without throwing an interception. Take San Diego State Aztecs.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Virginia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by at least 14 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt ; 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards

Fundamental Discussion Points Virginia Tech is the public favorite this week with 62% against No. 17 ranked Tennessee; I am going with Tennessee. Though they underperformed in their opening game against Appalachian State, there is definitely reason to believe that they will rebound. In their first game they struggled with their offensive line lacking physicality and QB Dobbs underperforming, which I predict will both greatly improve this week.

It is hard to make a compelling statistical argument based on Tennessee’s lackluster performance in Week One. However, their defense performed well, holding their opponent to just 292 yards and only 13 points. Also, Tennessee’s offense only committed two turnovers in their season opener; Virginia Tech committed 4 turnovers in their season opener. In any sport, turnovers cost games, and this could be a potential difference maker for Tennessee. Look for number 17 Tennessee to come out physical this week to take down the public favorite, Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on UConn as they take on Navy in AAC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UConn will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 over the last 5 seasons good for 80% winners and made 23.2 units/unit wagered. Play against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 59-24 since 1992 71.1% winners and made 32.6 units/unit wagered. Play ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Midshipmen are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Navy's Tago Smith is out for the season ( Knee ). Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs was a one-man show for the Huskies in the opener, passing for 162 yards and rushing for 95 more on 20 carries. Ron Johnson (two touchdowns) and Arkeel Newsome (one) each carried the ball 15 times in the opener, combining for 105 yards. The Huskies were among the nation's stingiest defenses last season. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Take Connecticut Huskies.