UAB vs Maryland
8-Unit Best bet on Maryland minus the points, currently priced at -5 and is good up -7.5 points.

Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have three or more returning starters than the foe and with both teams having won 60 to 80% of their games in the previous season has earned a 33-10 record good for 77% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

USC vs Oregon
8-Unit best bet on USC plus the 15.5 points and is good as long as USC is a double-digit underdog.

This is an insane amount of points to be giving USC, who has stumbled lately, and who is getting mispriced because of Oregon’s monster blowout win of Cal last week (Oregon was our PAC-12 MAX Bet of the Month).

Before the season began, the Circa had this game priced as Oregon favored by just two points and this meteoric rise is presenting a terrific betting opportunity. USC has not covered the spread in seven straight games and the OVER has won the money in these games.

Betting on road teams using the money line that allowed 42 or more points in their last game and have outscored their foes by 7 or more points in the first half of action has earned a 60-33 record for 65% winning bets and has made a highly profitable 42 units on the money line.

From the predictive model we learn that USC is 18-4 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have scored 31 or more points and won the turnover battle in games played over the past five seasons.

Texas vs TCU

Amon G. Carter Stadium, Forth Worth, TX
7:30 PM EST | ABC
8-Unit Best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 12.5 points

Betting on a ranked double-digit favorite facing an unranked foe. Our favorite is gaining an average of 4.8 yards per rush, outgained their previous foe by 125 or more yards on the ground, is now facing an average ground attack averaging 4.3 to 4.8 YPRA has earned a solid 34-20-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting road favorites between 10 and 21.5 points that have won four of their last 5 games with the current game taking place in November has earned a 49-6 SU record and 37-18 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Washington State vs California
California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
4:00 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on Washington State plus the points, currently priced as 2.5-point dogs.

Betting on road underdogs that are averaging at least 400 total yards per game and are coming off a very poor offensive game in which they averaged 3.85 or fewer yards per play has earned a 35-12-3 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2015. If the game occurs from Week 9 on to the end of the season has earned a 19-5-3 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets since 2015.

Betting on losing record road teams priced between the 3’s and is facing a host that is coming off a road blowout loss of 28 or more points, and that host has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season has earned a 37-13-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 years and is 17-5 ATS over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive playbook, we are expecting WSU to score at least 28 points and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which WSU met or excee3ded th4ese projections has led them to a 59-15 SU record and a 57-17 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets.

Texas Tech vs Kansas

Noon ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

8-Unit Best Bet on Kansas minus the points, currently priced at -4 and is good up to and including 6 points. That steam move is not expected to happen and see the market locked in at -4.

Betting on home teams from week 8 on out to the end of the regular season that are averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game, allowed less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG has earned a solid 49-15 SU record and 43-18-3 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2015. If our team is in a conference matchup and favored by any amount, the record improves to a highly profitable 25-8-1 ATS for 76% winning bets. Take Kansas

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
8:15 PM Prime Video
10-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the 3.5 points

Betting on any team that is facing a foe that has won 25% or fewer of their games, is coming off two consecutive road losses, and with the game taking place from Week 5 on out to the end of the season has earned a highly profitable 51-33-6 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2010. If our team is the underdog in this matchup, their record soars to 12-12 SU and 16-6-2 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. If the total has been less than 40 points, our team has gone an impressive 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 82-37-4 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our game has a total of 42.5 or fewer points, our road dogs have gone a near-perfect 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2015 and is 8-0 ATS since 2016.

The Panthers have covered the spread just once this season. Teams with no more than a single ATS win in games played from Week 10 on to the end of the season have gone 23-25 SU and 34-11-3 ATS for 76% winning bets since 1989 and is 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2009 (15 seasons) and has not lost since Week 12 of the 2012 season. Since that loss, this system is 10-0 ATS!

Phoenix Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues
8:07 PM | Enterprise Center
8-Unit Best Bet on the Blues using the money line

The Phoenix Coyotes (6-5-1,2-3-1 Home) will taking to the road to play the Blues (5-5-1, 4-2-1 Home) Thursday night with the puck drop scheduled for 8:00 PM. The Blues’ scoring leader is Robert Thomas, who has 10 points including 5 goals and 5 assists. For the Coyotes Nick Schmaltz is their top scorer with 12 points including 4 goals and 8 assists.

The Coyotes are just 3-21 in road games losing 15.45 units for a -62% ROI when facing below average defensive teams allowing an average of three or more-goals in games played over the past two seasons.

Betting on home teams that are favored between -100 and -150 using the money line and are coming off a dreadful loss by three or more goals and now facing a foe that has scored three or more goals in each of their last two games has produced a 245-140 record for 64% wins averaging a -130 wager and earning a highly profitable 18% ROI in games bet since 2006.

Southern Mississippi vs LA Lafayette
Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
7:30 PM | ESPNU
8-Unit Best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns minus the points.

The Cajuns are averaging 197 rushing yards per game ranking 14th nationally and will be facing a defense that ranks 114th nationally allowing 186 RYPG. So, the models are projecting that the Cajuns will wear down the SMU defensive front and gain over 200 RY. The models also project that the Cajuns will gain 450 or more total yards and commit no more than single turnover.

In past games, the Cajuns are 54-10 SU and 47-15-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and gaining 450 or more total yards. In addition, if they committed no more than a single turnover, they have gone 34-5 SU and 32-7 ATS for 82% winning bets.

Howard vs Georgia Tech
McCamish Pavilion, Atlanta, GA
7:30 PM ESPN+/ACCNX
8-Unit Best Bet on Howard plus the 10.5 points

Betting on dogs from 10 to 19.5 points in the first seven games of the season that are facing a non-tournament team form last season, who won four or more of their last games in the previous season, and who won between 45 and 55% of their games in the previous season have gone 38-13-1 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

From the predictive model we learn that Howard is 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets in games that they scored 75 or more points and had more rebounds than their foes.

Vancouver Canucks vs Ottawa Senators
Canadian Tire Center
7 PM
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Senators using the money line

The Senators are coming off a huge 6-2 road win (Also an 8-Unit winning bet) over the divisional foe Toronto Maple Leafs. They now return home playing on no rest to host the surging Vancouver Canucks, who have won their last four games and all by 2 or more goals covering the puck line too.

Betting on home underdogs that are facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 0.3 or more-goals per game and have won four straight games by two or more goals in each win has earned a highly profitable 32-33 record, but by averaging a +155-dog bet has earned an outstanding 22% ROI. If the market has our home team priced between a -120 favorite and a 120 dog, they have gone 29-16 averaging a -102 wager and earning a 30% ROI since 2010.

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets
Ball Arena, Denver, CO
10 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on the Warriors plus the 2.5 points

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5-point favorite and dog and facing a foe that has seen their last three games see 220 or more points scored and are outscoring their foes by at least 8 PPG on the season has earned a 21-9 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the total in these games is 225 or mor points, the record has been 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

This matchup could easily be a preview of a showdown in the playoffs and even the conference finals and has significant meaning despite being so early in the 82-game season schedule. Warriors are 12-2 ATS when facing a foe that has won at least 70% of their games in each of the past three seasons.

Arizona State vs Mississippi State
WinTrust Arena, Chicago, Ill
9:30 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on Miss. State minus the points

Returning starters and their production from the previous season a huge advantage in the early part of the season in college basketball. Miss State head coach Chris Jans has five returning starters while ASU head coach Bobby Hurley has just one.

Betting on teams that are the favorite by 3 to 9.5 points, with 3 or more returning starters than their foe and in a game involving two teams that won 60 to 80% of their games in the previous season, and with the current game occurring within the first 10 games of the season has earned a solid 30-8-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

LA Clippers vs Brooklyn Nets

Barclays Center
7:30 PM EST
8-Unit best Bet on the Nets plus the 4.5 points

Betting on teams that have posted three straight games with a solid assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.5 or higher and is facing a foe that has posted a season-to-date assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.0 or lower on the season, and with a total between 226 and 240 points has earned a solid 35-18-1 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Nets are playing pretty darn good basketball to start their season and the fans will be welcoming back James Harden with their version of the Bronx cheer. The fan base will be into this game simply because they want to see their team defeat any team that harden will ever be a member of and for good reason.

The Nets are sharing the ball and passing the ball with speed and accuracy in the half court sets. They rank 11th in the Association averaging 27 APG and third bets committing an average of 12 turnovers per game. The Clippers do not move the ball well in the half court and rank 28th committing 16.3 TPG. The Nets mistake-free play will go a long way to seeing them pull off the upset win. 

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
Wells Fargo Arena, Philadelphia, PA
7:10 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the 76ers plus the points

It is early in the season yet these two divisional rivals are at the top of the Eastern Conference standings as expected both with 5-1 records. The Philadelphia fans will be loud and supportive for their franchise and their dislike of the foe and that will be a factor.

76ers are 19-1 SUATS with revenge and facing that foe, who is averaging 13.5 or more turnovers per game over the past two seasons. They are 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in home games playing with revenge and with a posted total of 227 or more points over the past five seasons.

Betting on teams priced between a 3.5 point favorite and dog and facing a foe that has seen their last three games see 220 or more points scored and are outscoring their foes by at least 6 PPG on the season has earned a 54-20 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Looking at the standard deviations of scoring by quarters so far this season, the Celtics have been one of the most inconsistent first quarter scoring teams in the league. In fact, they rank third with a STD of 7.34 points scored in the first quarter. The Philadelphia defense has been quite good so far and no reason to expect otherwise tonight, especially at the start of the game.

Ottawa vs. Toronto
7:07 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on Ottawa using the money line

Betting on road underdogs up to and including +200 on the money line that are coming off a loss to a divisional foe and is playing just their second game in the past five days has earned an 84-73 record for 54%, but by averaging a +148 wager has earned a highly profitable 32% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.

Betting on road underdogs that allowed 6 or more goals in their previous game and are facing a foe that scored 4 or more goals in each of their two previous games has earned a 53-70 record for just 43% winners, but by averaging a 177 dog bet has earned a highly profitable 20% ROI over the past 15 seasons.

Minnesota Wild vs NY Islanders
8-Unit Best Bet on the Wild using the money line.

Betting on road favorites between -110 and -150 on the money line that are a slow starting team getting outscored by 0.2 or more goals in the first period and coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals has gone 74-47 for 61% averaging a -122 wager an earning a 17% ROI in games bet over the past 10 seasons.

The predictive models are expecting the Wild to allow no more than two goals tonight and when they have their record is a highly profitable 40-8 making 36 units in profits over the past two seasons.

Central Michigan vs Western Michigan
Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI

7:00 PM EST, ESPNU

8-Unit best bet on Western Michigan Broncos minus the -3 points.

From the predictive models, we are expecting WMU to score 31 or more points, The market has a 30 to 27 WMU home win given the 57.5 point total and WMU favored by three points, In past games in which WMU scored 31 points and had the same or fewer turnovers has led them to an outstanding 16-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Chargers vs Jets
Monday Night Football | MetLife Stadium
8:15 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points

5-Unit Best Bet on the Under | No Parlay – not worth the added risk.

It is a fact that the 10-UNIT MAX Bets have done very well in all sports for more than four years of betting opportunities hitting 68.8% winning tickets. Do not make the mistake that these plays anything more than that you can also look at them as the fact they lost 31% of the time. No one including me, knows if this play is going to win or lose, but over the course of a season or calendar year it is likely that we will generate profits by betting each one as they arise in a disciplined manner.

With that said, I am offering a special subscription for just $300 to get the remaining 8-weeks of the calendar year all access to every NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL 10-Unit best bet, which is more than 50% of what you would pay.

I like betting Under in game during the first half of action at 42.5 or more points. So, consider betting 3.5 units preflop and then took to add 1.5 units at 42.5 points.

Also, consider betting 7-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 3-units at pick-em during the first half of action.

Last Sunday, the Jets and Giants played one of the ineptest games since at least 2000. The Giants managed to pass for negative yardage, which marks only the 7th time that any NFL team passed for negative yardage in a game since 1998. The last time any NFL passed for -9 or fewer yards was the Browns, who lost 48-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars December 3, 2000.

So, home teams coming off a game in which they had 10 or more points, their previous opponent had 10 or more punts and with the current game total between 31 and 41 points has seen the Under go 13-4-1 for 77% winning bets.

There have been 85 games among the 8,754 games played or 1.0% where the teams combined for more punts than points scored since 1989. 

Teams that won a game in which there were more punts than points scored by both teams and now playing at home have gone 24-10-2 Under the total for 71% winning bets since 1989.

Justin Herbert looked at his best since suffering the grotesque injury to his fingers on his non-throwing hand. Granted the Bears were without their two starting safeties, but still Herbert was very accurate with all his passes. Jets defense has been great this season, but they have not been able to get off the field allowing 40% third down conversions. The Chargers are excellent in third down situations converting 41% of them on the season. The jets also are getting a sack on 6.94% of the plays ranking just 20th in the league. The Chargers OL is expected to protect Herbert well knowing the rank 7th in the league allowing a sack on just 5.6% of their passes.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers do get pressure on the QB more time than not and rank 12th with 7.90 sack percentage. The Jets OL has not been good in large part to injuries and allow a sack on close to 10% of their plays ranking 27th in the league.

Chargers are 7-0 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive Under results in games played over the past three seasons.

From the predictive model, there is a high probability that the Chargers will hold the Jets to fewer than 21 points and force at least two turnovers. The Chargers are 21-5 SU and 19-6-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when they allowed 21 or fewer points and 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have allowed 21 or fewer points and forced two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 1-20 SU and 2-18-1 ATS for just 10% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points and committing two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 7-41 SU and 10-37-1 ATS for 21% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points in games played over the past 5 seasons.

Celtics vs Timberwolves
Monday, November 6

8-Unit Best Bet on the Timberwolves

Betting on home teams that allowed 105 or fewer points in each of their last two games and facing a foe that scored 120 or more points has gone 86-35 SU and 79-39-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Georgia Southern vs Georgia Tech
Opening College Hoops
8-Unit best Bet on Georgia Southern plus the points

Betting on road underdogs of 10 or more points in the first seven games of the regular season and are facing a foe that was not in the NCAA tournament and had a win percentage between 45 and 55% last season has earned an outstanding 37-7 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets.

Mavericks vs Magic
8-Unit Best Bet on the Mavericks plus 4.5 points

Betting on teams that are outscoring their foes by 6 or more PPG, priced between 3.5-point dog and favorite and facing a foe that saw their last three games go over 220 points has earned a highly profitable 51-20 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2018.

Las Vegas vs. Anaheim Ducks

8-Unit best bet on the Golden Knights using the money line

Ok, so, betting on road favorites of not greater than -150 on the money line on back-back nights, who won at home in shutout fashion in their previous game has gone 10-1 for 91% winners and earning a remarkable 55% ROI.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST, 8-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points.
This is expected to be a great game between these two NFC East Rivals and there is a high probability of many lead changes. So, if that happens use that volatility to your advantage abdf consider betting 5 units on the Cowboys preflop and then add 1.5 units if the Eagles score a TD first to take a 7-0 lead, or kick a FG, then score a TD to go up 10-0 in the first half of action. Then look to get the Cowboys for the remaining 1.5 units at Dallas +9.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting on winning record road teams from Week 8 on out that are facing a host that coming off a divisional road win and has won 75% or more of their games on the season has earned an outstanding 30-12 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on road teams using the money line that is coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 ATS record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Toronto Raptors vs San Antonio Spurs
8-Unit best bet on the Raptors -4 points

Bet on road favorites, who are facing an opponent that is allowing at least 103 PPG, and are coming off a game in which they lead by 20 or more points at the half has earned a highly profitable 48-24 ATS record good for 67% winning bets.

LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers

1:00 PM EST, Lambeau Field

8-Unit best Bet on the Packers minus the points

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is averaging 5.5 or more yards per play and was outgained by 100 or more yards in their previous game has gone to earn a 93-21 SU record and a 69-42-3 ATS mark good for 62% winners since 2010. If our home team is on a three or more-game losing streak, the record improves to 25-11 SU and 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2010. The clincher is the fact that these home teams that have the foe on the second or more road game and that opponent having lost their last game, which was also on the road are a perfect 7-0 ATS.

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

1:00 PM EST,
8-Unit best bet on the Bears plus the points

This is a highly contrarian bet that may make no sense at all, but let’s get into the numbers why the Bears are a terrific betting opportunity.

Betting on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points and that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 14-17 SU record and a jaw-dropping 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. If a road dog of 7 or more points their record has been 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018.

Before the NFL season began, the Circa puts out lines and totals for every game of the NFL season. This game opened with the Bears a 2.5-point dog and now has shot up 7 points to a current 9.5-point price. When the line change has moved 7 or more points from the opening, and the game is taking place from Week 8 on out, the ATS record of betting on these unwanted teams is a solid 65% ATS.

Betting on dogs that are facing a team that has gained 375 or more total yards in each of their last three games and are outgaining their foes by a 50 or more YPG on the season has gone 27-9-2 ATS for 75% over the past five seasons.

Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets
8-Unit Bet on the Celtics minus the 9.5 points

Bet on road favorites of at least three points that have allowed between 100 and 110 points in each of their two previous game and facing a foe that is coming off a win by three or fewer points has produced an outstanding 24-9 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

If our road team is playing this game with more rest than the host, their record has been 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals
8-Unit Best Bet on the Capitals using the money line.

Betting on home favorites of up to and including -150 on the money line that are coming off a loss by three or more goals and is facing a foe that has scored three or more goals in each of their previous two games has produced a 244-140 record for 64% winners averaging a -130 wager and earning a 22% ROI.

If the total is 6 or more goals and the game is taking place after the 10th one of the regular season, these home favorites soar to68-30 for 69% winners averaging a -130 wager and earning a highly profitable 34% ROI.

Kansas vs Iowa State
7 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on Iowa State -3 points. I like this bet up to and including 4 points.

Betting on home teams that are coming off a double-digit road win and hosting a team coming off an upset win over a conference rival priced as 6 or more-point underdogs has earned a 109-20 SU record good for 85% wins and 86-42-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the past 43 seasons (since 1980). If that foe is ranked in the Top-25, the home team has gone 7-1 ATS and SU.

California vs Oregon
5:30 PM, Autzen Stadium
10-Unit Best Bet on Oregon minus the points

Bet on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game and whose defense has held their previous three opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards in each game has produced a highly profitable 63-5 SU record and 46-18-4 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2010. This system has had 18 consecutive seasons of profitability.

At No.6 Oregon has all the motivation to play well and four all four quarters even if they do run the score up on California. The CFP committee served notice that margin of victory over conference foes does matter when they selected Ohio State as No. 1 this past week.

Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons. Cal is just 4-14 ATS home a home loss, but did cover the spread. They lost 50-49 to USC last week. Oregon head coach Lanning is 9-2 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in each of their last three games.

Betting on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that have scored 31 or more points in each of their two previous games and has a great defense that is allowing an average 16 PPG on the season and is facing a foe that has a bad defense allowing 28 to 34 PPG has produced a 61-3 SU record and 41-23 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 1992. If our favorite is hosting the game, their record has been 32-1 SU and 23-10 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1992. The clincher here is if our home favorite has scored 31 or more points in three straight games, the record soars to 35-1 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets regardless of game site.  

The current market implies a 42-18 Oregon win and the predictive model shows a high probability that Oregon is going to score at least 35 points in this contest. Even when they score 28 or more points they have earned a 28-15-1 ASTS mark for 65% winners; 24-9 ATS mark when scoring 35 or more points; 14-3 ATS when scoring 42 or more points in games played over the past five seasons. When at home and scoring 42 or more points they are 8-2 ATS for 80%.

No. 12 Missouri vs No. 2 Georgia

Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
3:30 PM CBS Sports
8-Unit best bet on the Under 55.5 points

Betting the Under in game with a total of 55 or more points featuring ranked teams and the home team is favored by double-digits has produced a 29-17-2 Under record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our home team is ranked in the Top-10, the Under has gone 25-9-1 for 73% winning bets. If that home team is ranked in the Top-3, the Under has gone 14-5-1 for 74% winners.

Betting the Under in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points that has one team, Missouri, allowing 330 to 390 yards per game and is coming off a game in which they outgained that foe by 125 or more yards, and is now facing a conference foe that has an elite defense allowing 280 or fewer yards per game has produced a 27-14-3 Under record good for 66% winning bets.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

3:30 PM ESPN

8-Unit best bet on FSU minus the points

No. 4 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) will travel to Pittsburgh (2-6, 1-3 ACC) to take on their fellow ACC foe Panthers set to start at 3:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN. FSU elected to start the season having to face two powerhouse ranked teams starting with the LSU Tigers in Week 1 and then their ACC rival Clemson Tigers in Week 4 and won them both on the road. Having played an won these games against ranked opponents has made FSU a much better team and one that I see going undefeated and being voted into the College Football Playoffs.

Following this game, FSU will host their ACC and state rival Miami Hurricanes next Saturday, then play their home finale against Northern Alabama, and then the season finale at Gainesville to face the SEC Florida Gators. They will be favored in every game and I see them winning by double-digits against Miami and Florida.

FSU ranks 4th nationally averaging 41.5 PPG and rank 18th allowing 18.3 PPG having played a difficult schedule. Pittsburgh ranks 116th averaging 19.1 PPG and ranks 101st allowing 31.9 PPG. So, FSU is outscoring their foes by 23.2 PPG while Pittsburgh is getting outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG. Simply stated, this is a monumental mismatch that warrants a line at least seven more points higher than the current price of 21.5 points.

FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is having a sensational season throwing for 2,109 yards with 18 touchdowns, just two interceptions and earning an 156 rating. Against the six conference foes he has faced he has completed 65% of his passes for 1,592 yards with 12 touchdowns and earning a 154 rating. Their formidable ground attack is led by Trey Benson, who has gained 544 rushing yards on 85 carries including seven scores. He accounts for only 41% of the 1,342 rushing yards gained on the season and reflects their strong depth at the running back position.

FSU has six receivers, who have caught 13 or more passes this season and are led by Keon Coleman with 38 catches, 538 receiving yards and nine scores. For the season, there have been 10 different receivers, who have accounted for the 21 receiving touchdowns. So, the Pittsburgh defense is not going to be capable of stopping this offense and I see them scoring at least 41 points in this game.

A Highly Profitable Situation to Bet FSU

FSU is supported by a terrific situation that has produced a 46-1 SU record for 98% wins and has earned a 33-14 ATS record good for 70.2% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams that have won more than 75% of their games.

·      Is favored by 19.5 or more-points.

·      Our team has covered the spread in at least five of their last 7 games.

·      Our team is facing a losing record host

Brooklyn vs Chicago

8:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet OVER the total currently priced at 223.5 points

Betting on road teams with a posted total of 220 or more points, has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games and is playing their third game in 5 days has produced a highly profitable 60-41-2 Over record good for 60% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If the total is between 221 and 230 points, the Over has gone 43-19 for 69.4% winning bets.

I know it sounds crazy, but as a pizza-money prop bet, consider no more than a unit for Ben Simmons to record a triple-double at +1600 as offered at FanDuel. He has played four games and is shooting 56% from the field averaging a 7.2 PPG, 10.2 Rebounds per game, and 7.5 assists-per-game. Moreover, he is averaging 31 minutes per game, which is five more minutes than he averaged last season. He looks different on the court, is playing incredible defense as he once did. In an expected high scoring game, this would be the best opportunity to get his first one of the season and let’s not forget he ranks 13th on the all-time list with 33 career triple doubles.

Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

8-Unit Best Bet on the OVER, currently at 37 points.

I like betting this one with 5-Units on the OVER preflop, then 1.5-units each at 33.5 and 31.5 points if the pace of the game is quite slow over the first half of action. The worst thing that happens is that we do get those price levels, but that also implies that the OVER preflop bet is more than likely winning and looking good.

Betting on any team with a total between 35.5 and 42 points, with one of the teams (Steelers) coming off four or more consecutive Under results, and is getting outscored by 4.5 or more points per game on the season has earned a solid 63-34 record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. If that team is playing at home, the Over has gone a highly profitable 38-13 for 74.5% winning bets.

Here is a subset of that system that has gone 13-1 Over for 93% winning bets. Bet the over in a game where the home team is on a five or more game Under streak, has been outscored by 4 or more PPG and with a game total between 35.5 and 40 points.

New Jersey vs Minnesota Wild
8-Unit Best bet on the money line, currently priced at +100.

Betting on any team that has lost three or more consecutive losses, has won 30 to 40% of their games, facing a team with a winning record in the first half of the season has earned a 100-118 record, but by averaging a +142 bet has produced an solid 14% ROI since 2006.  

Betting on teams that are revenging a one-goal loss and are coming off two road losses by one goal each has produced a 27-15 record averaging a 130 wager and earning a 37% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors

10 PM, Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

8-Unit Best bet on the Warriors -7 points.

Betting on teams that have allowed 105 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now facing a foe that scored 120 or more points in their previous game have gone 132-103 SU (56%) and 134-97-4 ATS for 58% winning bets over the past five seasons.

In the 2022 season this system went 29-14-1 ATS (67.4%), 2021 season it went 42-31-5 ATS (58%), 2020 it went 28-28-1 ATS (50%), 2019 it went 33-23 ATS (59%). So, only the shortened COVID-19 season did not make significant profits.

Now, if our team is playing at home, then five-season record went 84-35 SU and 78-38-5 ATS (67.2%). If playing at home and favored by not more than 8 points has produced a 39-8 SU record and a 32-13-2 ATS mark for 71% winning bets.

For Live Betting consider betting 6-units preflop and then look for the Kings to get out in front early and add the remaining 2-units at -2.5 or fewer points. Noting that these teams are 39-8 SU, consider a money line bet for the remaining 2-Units if the line does get to -2.5 or lower during the first half of action. If the Kings score 10 or more unanswered points in the first half of action would also be an attractive point to add the 2-units.

St. Louis vs Colorado

8-Unit best Bet on the St. Louis Blues using the money line.

Betting on dogs that are coming off a terrible loss by four or more goals and now facing a host that has lost each of their last two games by 2 or more goals has produced a 29-26 averaging a +160 money line wager and earning a highly profitable 32% ROI in games bet over the past 10 seasons. If our dog has had three or more days of rest, they are 4-1 averaging a +165 wager and a 107% ROI over the past 10 seasons.

Betting against home teams that are coming off a road loss of 3 or more goals and facing a foe that was shutout in their previous game has earned a 24-19 record averaging a +126 wager and earning a 22% ROI over the past 15 seasons.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz
9:00 PM, Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT
8-Unit Best bet on the Grizzlies plus 2 points or consider the money line.

Memphis is 9-0 ATS coming off a loss to a divisional foe over the past three seasons. Utah is on a 2-11 ATS losing streak as a home favorite of six or fewer points spanning the past two seasons.

Memphis head coach Jenkins is 14-3-1 ATS in road games when coming off a loss of 15 or more points.

Betting on a road team that has shot 43% from the field over its’ last three games and is on a two-game losing streak, has lost to the spread by 18 or more points in total over their last three games and with the game occurring in the first 41 games of the season has earned a 15-14 record and 20-9 ATS mark for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
10-Unit best bet on the Rangers using the money line.

If I am correct, this will be the last game of a tremendous 2023 MLB season.
Betting on teams in the world series that are on the rod and have three wins in the series has gone 12-6 averaging a +124-dog wager and earning a 48% ROI. Teams with three wins in the world series and are favored have gone 9-4 averaging a -144-wager good for a 22% ROI.

Nathan Eovaldi will be on the hill for the Rangers and is 3-0 in six starts against the Diamondbacks with a 3.12 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP. More importantly, he is pitching well in the playoffs posting a 4-0 record in five starts with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and five walks spanning 30 2/3 innings of work.  For Arizona, Zac Gallen will be on the hill and has struggled to a 2-2 record in five starts with a 5.27 ERAS and a 1.500 WHIP with just 18 strikeouts and 13 walks over 27 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.625 WHIP, with just 10 walks and terrible 8 free passes over 16 innings of work. His first start against the Brewers has been his only quality start in the playoffs and he has steadily worsened since.

Betting on road teams priced between -130 and +130 on the money line that have stranded 5 or fewer runners on base in each of their last two games and has an overworked bullpen that has thrown a total of 13 or more innings over their previous three games has gone 57-26 averaging a +105 dog spanning the past five seasons.

In the WS, teams that scored 10+ runs in their previous game are 14-5 for 74% averaging a -130 wager and earning a 44% ROI. And the clincher is the fact that these teams that scored 10 or more runs and now are favored have gone 13-1 averaging a -151 wager and earning a 67% ROI. In 10 of these games, the opponent never had the lead.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs NY Knicks

Madison Square Garden

7:30 PM

8-Unit best bet on the Cavaliers plus the 6.5 points

Betting on teams in the second of back-to-back games against the same foe having lost at home by double digits has earned a solid 17-7 ATS record good for 71% winning bets. If the total is 220 or fewer points, the record has been 17-6 ATS for 74% winning bets. This algorithm has yet to have back-to-back ATS losses and is coming of an ATS loss.

Bet on underdogs that are coming off a loss and have lost four or more of their last five games during the first six games of the season if they were a playoff team in the previous season has produced a 14-6 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2004 (20 seasons).

Ball State vs Bowling Green
7:00 PM

8-Unit best bet on the Over, currently priced at 40 points.

Betting the Over between 35.5 and 42 points in a game from week 7 on that involved two struggling offensive teams that are gaining between 280 and 330 YPG has produced a 70-35 Over record good for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 19-7 for 73% winners when BGU has passed for 270 or more yards and scored 25 or more points in home games. In road games in which they allowed 25 or more points and 270 or more passing yards; Ball State has seen the Over go 23-10 for 70% winning bets.

Kings vs Maple Leafs

Toronto, Canada

8-Unit Best Bet on the Kings using the money line

This graded betting opportunity is reinforced by the following betting system that has earned an outstanding 23-21 SU record for 52% winners averaging a +129 wager and earning an outstanding 18.2% ROI over the past five seasons.

Bet on road dogs up to and including 150 on the money line that is allowing 2.85 or more GPG and has seen five more of their last games play OVER and coming off two games in which they and their foes each scored 3 or more goals.

The Kings are 11-2 against the money line making 12 Units after allowing four or more goals in two straight games over the last two seasons of action.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Atlanta Hawks

7:30 PM, October 30, 2023

State Farm Arena

Atlanta, Georgia

8-Unit Best Bet on the Wolves -2 points or if you prefer the money line. This bet is good up to and including 3.5 points.

This graded betting opportunity is reinforced by the following betting system that has earned an outstanding 42-12 SU record for 78% winners and 35-19 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1995.

Bet on road favorites, who are facing an opponent that is allowing at least 105 PPG and are coming off a game in which they led by 20 or more points at the half. That’s all there is to it.

If our road favorite is involved in a game with a posted total of 235 or fewer points, they have gone to a 40-8 SU record (83%) and 33-15 ASTS for 69% winning bets since 1996.

Chicago Bears vs LA Chargers

8:20 PM

10-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the nine points and consider adding a sprinkle on the money line during the first half if the spread gets to 11 or more points.

Betting road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that held each of their last three foes to less than 100 rushing yards have gone 26-5 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2018. If they are dogs priced between 6.5 and 10 points has produced an even better 11-2 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets since 2018.

Betting against home favorites between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off a road loss and in a matchup of teams that have lost 60% or more of their games on the season has earned a solid 46-25 ATS mark for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If both teams have lost between 60 and 75% of their game son the season, these dogs soar to a highly profitable 23-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and up to and including 10 points that are allowing a pass completion percentage of 60% and higher and coming off a solid defensive game in which they allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass have earned an outstanding 49-27-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If not a conference matchup, these dogs have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a divisional foe; 13-28 ATS in home games following a terrible game in which their defense allowed 300 or more passing yards.

From the predictive models we are looking for the Bears to win the turnover battle and gain at least 135 rushing yards in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections has led them to an outstanding 14-4 SU and 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.

Golden State vs Houston
7:00 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on the Rockets plus the 5.5 points.

Betting on dogs priced between 2.5 and 6.5 points that had a losing record last season and facing a team off a road win in which they scored 125 or fewer points and had a winning record last season and the current game has a total of at least 224 points has earned a highly profitable 60-38-2 ATS for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If in a non-divisional matchup and with our dog having one-day of rest improves their record to 38-19 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Seahawks vs Browns

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite

Betting on a home favorite in a non-conference matchup that is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 39-15-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 2009.

Colorado vs Buffalo
1:07 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on the Avalanche using the money line currently priced at -170.

Bet on road favorites up to and including -200 that are facing a foe that is allowing 2.85 or more GPG and coming off two games in which they scored 4 or more goals in each one has earned a solid 95-42 record for 69% winners and earning an exceptional 27% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.

Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM, Week 8
8-Unit Best bet on the Texans -3.5 points

So, the Texans find themselves at 3-3 for the season and for the first time in many seasons have realistic expectations to make the postseason. However, the Jaguars lead the AFC South Division at 5-2 and the Texans must keep pace and stay ahead of both Colts abnd Titans, who are both at 3-4 in the division race.

The Texans QB, CJ Stroud, I shaving a solid season completing 127 of 213 passes for 1660 yards, nine TDs and just one interception. Overall, he has attained a 57.1 QBR for the season. In road games he has done much better completing 62% of his 109 passes for 771 yards, three TDs and one interception.

The Texans are coming off the BYE and have had two weeks to focus and prepare for this pivotal game. Moreover, road favorites coming off a BYE week and playing a winless team are 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU. So, I like betting 80% of the 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to get the remaining 20% amount bet if the Panthers score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. If neither occurs, but the halftime line for 20% as long as it is not above a 6.5-point favorite.

The Colts have seen 26 lead changes in their games this season, which is tops in the NFL. The Panthers have experienced 14 lead changes, so the probability that the Texans may trail at some point during the first half is quite high.

New York Jets vs NY Giants

1:00 PM MetLife Stadium

8-Unit Best Bet on the Over the total currently priced at 35 points.

Betting on the Over in a game lined between 35 and 42 points with one of the team sin the matchup (Giants) getting outscored by 4 or more PPG and coming off four or more Under results has gone 87-42-2 Over for 62% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total of 40.5 points

Betting the Over in a game with a total between 37.5 and 42 points in which one of the teams is getting outscored by 4 or more points per game and is on a 4 or more Under streak has gone 38-21 for 64.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If that team (Pittsburgh) is playing at home, then the Over has gone 25-10 for 71.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Philadelphia vs Washington

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total of 43.5 points

Philadelphia goes for it on fourth down and short yardage a lot and last week they

Team that are coming off a game in which they covered 3 or more fourth down attempts and now on the road have seen the Under go 42-17-2 for 71% winning bets since 2001.  

Minnesota vs Green Bay

1:00 PM

8-Unit best bet on the Packers plus the 1.5 points or if it is less than that consider the money line.

Betting on teams that have covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in their last two games and with the team (Green Bay) being priced between the 3’s has gone 30-12-3 for 71.4% winning bets since 2015. If in a divisional matchup, our teams have gone 14-3-3 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2015.

No. 11 Oregon State vs Arizona
10:30 PM ESPN

10-Unit best Bet on the Wildcats plus the 3 points

Betting on non-ranked home underdogs bet3een pick and 4.5 points that are facing a foe that is ranked and coming off a win that covered the spread by 3.5 to 10 points has produced a 27-20 SU record and 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets sine 1993.

Betting on home underdogs that are taking on a foe that allowed 5.5 or more RYPA in each of their last two games has gone 31-44 SU and 47-27-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If facing a conference foe these home dogs have gone 29-35 SU and 43-20-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If home team is priced as a 5.5 or fewer-point dog, they have gone 17-17 SU and 23-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

Oregon State ranks 14th in scoring offense averaging 35.3 PPG and has the best red zone scoring offense in the nation. They produce scoring drives with their solid rushing attack ranking 28th gaining an average of 183 yards per game. However, Arizona has a great defensive front that ranks 19th nationally allowing just 99 YPG. Arizona can bring the heat effectively too in passing downs getting a sack on 9% on all plays run ranking 21st nationally. Plus, they get the job done in preventing multiple first down scoring drives averaging just 45% of the game on the field and ranks 13th best nationally. So, the OSU ground game is not going to have an easy time running the ball in this matchup – not saying they won’t gain over 100 yards, but it will be a struggle for them to do so.

Arizona can run the ball and have gained 1159 yards on 227 carries for a solid 5.1 YPRA. Jonah Coleman is the featured back and has gained 433 yards on 65 rushes for a 6.7 yards per carry with 3 TDs. Arizona ranks 8th nationally completing 72% of their passes and rank 37th allowing a sack on just 4.6% of plays run.

North Carolina vs Georgia Tech

8:00 PM – ACCN

Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta

8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 63.5

points

The Tarheels are coming off an inexplicably bad loss losing to one-win UVA 31-27 at home. So, the CFP playoff aspirations may be dashed, but they still can have a great season and possibly an ACC Championship. Head Coach Mack Brown will have his troops fully prepared and focused to make sure they do not suffer any hangover form the horrid loss. Great head coaches always focus on the defensive side of the ball following a horrid loss because it is the defensive failure that contributes the most the loss.

Betting the UNDER with a road team in a conference matchup that is coming off a horrid loss to a conference foe priced as a 17.5 or more-point favorite and facing a foe that has won 50% or fewer of their games on the season has earned a solid 10-2-1 for 83% winning bets.

Betting the Under in a game with a total between 63 and 70.5 points with the road team being a solid offensive team gaining at least 6.3 yards per play and have gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games has earned a 62-33-1 UNDER record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game takes place from week 7 on out to the end of the season the Under has gone 42-21-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

No. 21 Tennessee vs. Kentucky

Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

7:00 PM | ESPN

8-Unit best bet on the Wildcats plus the points

currently priced at +3.5 points.

Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. If our team is playing at home, their record soars to 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.

Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe

5:00 PM EST Week 9

8-Unit Best bet on Arkansas State plus the points

Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has scored 24 or fewer points in total over their past 2 games has improved the results to 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs

8:00 PM EST
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX

8-Unit Best Bet on the Houston Rockets plus the points

ü  Bet on road teams (Rockets)

ü  Road team scored

Tampa Bay vs Buffalo
8:15 PM Prime Video

8-Unit best Bet on the Bucs plus the 9.5 points

Betting on road underdogs facing a non-conference foe coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a solid 87-66-7 ATS record goods for 57% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and an 18-10-1 ATS mark for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. If a matchup of winning record teams, the road team has gone 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons.

A sprinkle on the money line is worth it as I do see the Bucs being vastly undervalued in this matchup.

Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers

7:30 EST
8-Unit best bet on the Wild using the money line

Bet on road favorites between -100 and -150 that are slow-starting teams getting outscored in the first period of 0.2 or more goals on average and facing a foe that scored four or more goals in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 72-40 for 63% winners averaging a -123 wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2015.

Syracuse vs Virginia Tech
7:30 EST, ESPN
8-Unit best bet on the Orange plus the points

Syracuse has been coming up on the radar more so this season than in others and that’s ok no matter if they are 4-3 or 7-0 or even 0-7 as the models present us with opportunities to exploit based on the situations teams find themselves in any matchup. After starting out 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, the Orange suddenly ran out of fire power on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 14 points in a 31-14 loss to Clemson, then 12 days ago lost to No. 4 ranked FSU 41-3 as failed to cover as 19-point dogs at Tallahassee. In the second to last game, they lost at UNC 40-7 as 9.5-point road dogs. They had five turnovers in the first four games and then turned it over 7 times in the past three games. So, at this point everyone is highly suspect of the Orange and rightfully so based on recency bias alone.

V-Tech is not in the same class as UNC, Clemson, and FSU and few teams in the ACC, if any, would have been able to win on the road against those programs in consecutive weeks. The Orange have extra motivation to win the game and get one step closer to earning a bowl game appearance while at 3-4 V-Tech has little hope of getting to six wins knowing they are on the road at Louisville and BC, then a home finale against a solid NC State program and then a possible win at UVA.

Betting on road dogs between 2.5 and 10 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes and have played UNDER in three of their last four games has produced a 41-50 SU record and a highly profitable 60-28-3 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015.

The base system mentioned first above has had just one losing record season going 2-5 ATS in 2021 over the past 10 seasons.

The Orange are 41-23 ATS following a game in which they allowed 6.75 or more YPPL. V-Tech is on an 0-6 ATS streak after having won three of their last 4 games.

76ers vs Bucks

7:30 PM

8-Unit bet on the 76ers plus the 6.5 points

I would not be making this bet regardless of the model grading if James Harden had joined the team in Milwaukee. The 76ers front office has done the right thing in preventing him from joining the team. The fact that the line has not moved since the news was released clearly shows he has made himself a meaningless piece of the 76ers squad and they are going to play far better without him on the court.

From the predictive mode, the 76ers are 154-21 SU and 148-27 ATS for 85% winning bets when shooting at least 48 or better from the field, making at least 38% of their 3-pointers and having fewer turnovers than their foe.

Cleveland vs Brooklyn

7:30 EST
8-Unit best bet on the Nets plus the 2.5 points.

Opening Night in Brooklyn and with hopes and aspirations and expectations run high. The wild card this year is focused on Ben Simmons and if the practice sessions during this preseason will translate to the regular season games. Let’s not forget the fact that Simmons ranks 13th ion the all-time triple-double list with 33 such games. Granted, that is a million light years behind all-time leader Westbrook with 133 games or Oscar Robinson with 181 games, but he has always had the skillset to reach 100 career triple-doubles. Now, he is not the reason for this bet, but if his play is anywhere close to his peak performances with the 76ers (had game with 42 points), the Nets will have little difficulty winning this game.

Cavaliers are just 33-65 ATS in games with a posted total between 220 and 229.5 points; 42-64 ATS in road games with a total of at least 220 points. Cavs head coach Bickerstaff is just 45-73 ATS in road games for his career.

From the predictive mode, we are expecting the Nets to score at least 111 points and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio. In past games, the Nets are 95-18 SU and 81-32 ATS for 72% winning bets in home games and scoring >=111 points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio since 2019.

Washington Capitals vs NJ Devils

7:30 EST

8-Unit best bet on the Capitals using the money line

Bet on road teams in a game with a total of 6 or more goals and is coming off a game in which their last three opponents each scored 3 or more goals and are facing a foe that has scored 3 or more goals in their past two games has earned a 97-110 record, but by averaging a +158-dog bet has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI over the past five seasons.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
8:07 PM EST, Game 7
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line.

Consider betting 6-Units on the money line preflop and then add the 2-units using the -1.5 alternative run line if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead at some point during the first four innings.

Game 7’s are special situations and the most exciting elimination game possible in all of sports. Since 2004, the home team is 10-8 averaging a -125 favorite for 56% winners and earning a 2% ROI. The average score has been 4.61-3.78 with the home team scoring 4.61 runs. It is all hands on deck for the every pitcher physically capable of throwing even a single out. However, the average pitchers used has been a combined total of 9 pitchers with the home team averaging 4.61 and the road team 4.39.

A potential live in game bet is to take whoever is leading after four innings are completed knowing that teams in this year’s playoffs that have held a lead after the 4th inning have gone 31-2 averaging a -101 wager and earning a 94%-win percentage. Also, the team leading after four innings, not tied, in game 7’s has gone to a 12-3 record for 80% averaging a -105 wager and earning a 57% ROI since 2004. IN the playoffs, the Phillies are 34-5 for 87% averaging a -116 wager and earning a 65% ROI since 2004 in game 7’s; and 21-2 for 91% winners averaging a -135 wager and earning a 72% ROI since 2004.

Ranger Suarez will be on the hill tonight for the Phillies and has been pitching in top-form durig the playoffs and has been a formidable force during the regular season. He is 20-10 making 15 units when facing a team with a winning record over the past two seasons; 12-1 making 12 units in home games facing a NL team that is batting 0.250 or lower in the second of the last three seasons; 9-0 making 11 units if that NL team is batting 0.260 or lower in the second half of the last two seasons. When Suarez has started in the playoffs, the Phillies are 8-1 making 11 units.

Suarez has posted a remarkable 0.64 ERA and a 0.643 WHIP with 13 strikeouts and just 2 walks in his three playoff starts this season.

NLCS Game 7 Best Bet

Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins
8-Unit Best Bet on the Penguins using the money line

Betting on home teams priced between a 130 favorite and 130 underdog, has won 30 to 40% of their games on the season, in the first half of the regular season and facing a foe that has won two or more of their last three games and has won 70% or more of their games has produced a 46-18 record good for 72% winners averaging a -110 wager and earning a 37% ROI since 2010.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky
7:30 PM EST on ESPNU
Houchens Industries – L.T. Smith Stadium
8-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off three consecutive wis over conference foes and has nine or fewer returning starters from last season have gone 52-20-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 30 seasons and is 15-3-1 ATS for 83% winners over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe coming off two consecutive games in which they had a turnover margin of one or better has earned a highly profitable 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Western Kentucky is 21-7 ATS over the past three seasons for 75% winning bets in games that they score 28 or more points and the predictive model projects an 82% probability that they will score 30 or more points.

Hurricanes vs Lightning
8-Unit best bet on the Hurricanes using the money line.

Bet on road teams that are on a 6 or more game OVER streak and priced between a -100 and -150 favorite on the money line has produced a 32-12 record for 73% winners averaging a -126 wager and earning a 33% ROI since 2007. Just one losing record season in 2008 when this system went 1-2.

Betting on road favorites that have scored three or more goals in five consecutive games and now facing a foe that has scored three or more goals in each of their past two games has produced a 63-30 record for 68% winners averaging a -146 wager and earning a 24% ROI since 2015.

Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
8:20 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 43.5 points

I prefer betting this game with a 5.5-unit amount preflop and then look for a faster than expected start to the game and add 1.5 units at 47.5 points and then the final unit at 49.5 points during the first half of action.

San Francisco went on the road with a perfect record to take on the Cleveland Browns and they lost as a favorite. We were on the Browns as many of you know and sprinkled the money line as well. Many times, the first loss of a season by a stellar elite team regroups with a focus on the defensive end, which is the area of the game that gave the dog the chance at the outright upset win. 49ers have the best defense3 in the NFL, and at least in the NFC. The Jets defense held the Eagles offense to just 14 points in their upset win and are the only other team possibly better than the 49ers defensive unit.

The 49ers defense ranks second allowing in the NFL allowing 14.5 PPG, third allowing 278 yards per game, second with a 0.235 points allowed per play ratio. 3rd allowing 4.5 YPPL. And second allowing 5.1 yards per pass despite ranking 31st with the second highest opponent pass play percentage. Offensive schemes going up against the 49ers defense focus on the pass game to have any chance at getting the upset win. Teams are averaging the second-lowest average of rushes (20.2 per game) in the league. The Vikings throw the ball the highest amount in the NFL at 69% of all plays run.

The 49ers great defense is not because of an overly aggressive scheme. In fact, they rank 19th in the league blitzing on 14% of their defensive plays. The top blitz team in the league is the Vikings with 132 blitzes or 33% of their total defensive plays. The 49ers lead the league with a total of 27 quarterback hits and second to the Eagles (75) with 69 quarterback pressures. Remember the 49ers have played on fewer game than the Eagles. So, the 49ers front four can generate enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks without having to blitz and play a wide array of coverage schemes to create chaos and opponent turnovers.

Betting the Under in the MNF game with one of the teams coming off an upset loss has earned an outstanding 20-2-1 UNDER for 91% winning bets over the past five seasons. If they are a road favorite in the current MNF game, the Under has gone 10-2 for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
5:07 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line.

Consider betting 6-Units on the money line preflop and then add the 2-units using the -1.5 run line if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead at some point during the first four innings.

The Phillies have posted an excellent 0.344 on-base-percentage with 23 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and 22 doubles in 11 playoff games. The Snakes have posted a 0.308 OBP with 16 home runs, and just 13 doubles in 10 playoff games. Big offensive advantage to the Phillies lineup.

Betting against road teams in October and November that are batting 0.230 or lower spanning their last 15 games has earned a highly profitable 48-17 record for 74% winners averaging a -133 wager and earning a 42% ROI in playoffs games. In playoffs games only, betting against these road teams has gone 23-11 for 68% winners averaging a -123 wager and earning a 31% ROI over the past 5 seasons. If that road team is batting under 0.,220 over their previous 15 games, facing them has produced a 26-10 record for 72% winners averaging a 37% ROI over the past 10 playoff seasons.

The Phillies Aaron Nola is in top form posting a 0.96 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in three playoff starts. He has an exceptional K/walk ratio over 9 with 19 K’s and just 2 free passes in 18 2/3 innings of work. Overall, Nola has had 545 batted ball events for the season that have averaged a 12.7 degree launch angle, an excellent 89.3 average exit velocity, just 38% hard-hit percentage, 0.300 expected OBP, striking out 25.5% of the batters faced and walking just 5.7% of the batters faced.

The Phillies will look to be quite aggressive on the base paths knowing that Merrill Kelly is not all that good at keep runners close at first base and their catcher Gabriel Moreno has a 1.90 pop time. That POP time is above average in the majors, but the Phillies have the team speed to more than offset that asset. Moreover, the Phillies JT Realmuto has the MLB best POP time at 1.82 seconds averaging 87 MPH throw down to second base. Moreno averages just 82 MPH. Plus, Kelly throws off speed on 35% of his pitches so look for the Phillies to anticipate those softer pitches given them more than ample time to grab a stolen base.

NLCS Game 6 Best Bet

8-Unit Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered at by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night.

Only one other time in the past 20 seasons has a seven game playoff series saw the road team win the first six games. That was in the 2019 season when the Astros and Washington Nationals saw all seven games being won by the road team. With a 3-2 series lead heading back to Houston, the Astros failed to close out that World Series losing game 6 by a final score of 7-2 and then losing game 7 by a final score of 6-2. The current edition of the Astros is a vastly more formidable offense and I do not see them failing to score an abundance of runs in either game.

The Starters for Game 6

The Texas Rangers have the edge in starting pitching sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill to face the Astros Framber Valdez. Eovaldi is making his 29th start of the season and has posted a15-5 record with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP including 156 strikeouts over 163 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts all in the playoffs he has amassed a quite strong 2.29 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and one walk over 19 2/3 innings of work.

Valdez has logged a ton of innings over the past two seasons and that heavy workload is shoing in his recent starts. He will be making his 34th start with a 12-13 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, and including 211 strikeouts spanning 205 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 9.82 ERA, 2.545 WHIP with 18 strikeouts and nine walks over just 11 innings of work. In two playoff starts he has been hammered to the tune of an 11.57 ERA and a horrid 2.571 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and four walks over just seven innings of work.

Valdez could be suffering from a ‘tired arm’ injury where many times the hand goes numb temporarily after a pitch. When this happens you will see the pitcher shaking his hand as if he is trying to loosen up his shoulder, but it is the hand that and fingers that he is tryig to get back to a sense of feeling. I am guessing, but I have been around baseball for more than three decades and I have seen this before and the injury is always accompanied by a significant loss of control and increase in the number of walks. I am surprised that Dusty Baker has elected to go with him for this incredibly important game tonight.

The Bullpen Edge Goes to the Astros

The reason why Baker may be opting to take a risk and start Valdez is that he knows he has the vastly better bullpen right now. The Rangers need Eovaldi to log as many scoreless innings as possible knowing their bullpen has posted a 4.12 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP, allowing six home runs, 33 strikeouts and 22 walks in the playoffs. The Astros have posted a 2.19 ERA and a 0.811 WHIP with 45 strikeouts, 11 walks, just three home runs allowed in 37 innings of work.

Situational Betting Algorithm Supports the Rangers

The following betting algorithm has produced a 35-15 record for 70% winners averaging a -105 wager over the past five seasons. Betting on road teams with a solid starter posting an ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season, are priced between a 125 dog and a -125 favorite and facing a host that is hitting no better than 0.260 on the season.

8-Unit Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered at by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night.

Chargers vs Chiefs

4:25 EST

Globe Life Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

8-Unit best bet on the Chiefs

Betting on road teams that are facing a team that is outgaining their foes by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt and coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt have gone 72-40-2 ATS for 64% winners last five seasons. If in a divisional matchup, 22-7-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs LA Rams

4:05 PM EST, FOX

SoFi Stadium

8-Unit best bet on the Rams minus the 3-points

Bet on any team that is facing a winning record foe that is coming off an upset home win to a divisional rival

82-48 SU (63%) | 84-39-7 ATS (68%) since 1989

If the foe pressed the QB on

Arizona vs Seattle

4:05 PM EST FOX
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

8-UNIT best bet on the Cardinals plus the 8 points and sprinkle on the money line

Betting against home favorites coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a highly profitable 66-33-3 for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team, the Cardinals, are coming off a SU and ATS loss, they soar to a 27-11-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. This is obviously a highly contrarian bet. Aside from the sentiment Python apps I run on Twitter to access the betting community’s appetite for specific teams, note that 60% of the remain 1785 Circa Eliminator entries are on Seattle.

If our team is also averaging a mediocre 15 or higher yards per point ratio on offense, betting on them has produced a 50-22-3 ATS record for 70% winners over the past five seasons.

Washington Commanders vs NY Giants

1:00 PM EST
MetLife Stadium
8-Unit best bet on the Over

Betting on the OVER with a total between 35.5 and 40 points with the home team being outscored by 5 or more points and is on a four or more game UNDER streak has seen the Over go 34-12 for 75% winning bets since 1989. If the total is between 35.5 and 40 points, the Over has gone 24-2 for 92% winning bets.

Buffalo Bills vs NE Patriots

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

1:00 EST

8-Unit Best Bet OVER

New England opened at 7.5 points rose to as high as 9 points before trading back down to 7.5 points and with 7 likely to be the number ahead of kickoff. The total has slid from an opening of 46 for this game before the season starts down to 40 and with some 39.5 numbers showing up. The Under has amassed a 53-37-1 Under record for 59% winners this season and 11-2-1 Under last week. So, for the first time in years, the public is betting this trend as if it will continue on for the remainder of the season. As a result, we are getting a cheap price for this game, especially given that the Bills are in position for a bounce back offensively against the Patriots.

The implied game result based on the current market pricing is a 24-16 Bills win. The Patriots team total warrants a sprinkle or not more than 2 units betting Over 16.5 points and getting +105 juice at DraftKings. I don’t like the Over Buffalo team total as the Patriots might score 20 or more points, so as shocking as it might be, I think this game could end up quite close. There is simply a higher probability that the Patriots exceed their team total than it is for the Bills to exceed theirs.

Betting on the Over with a total between 35.5 and 42 points that is coming off four consecutive Unders and is a team getting outscored by four or more PPG on the season has earned a 62-36 record for 63% winners since 1989 and 11-5 OVER for 69% since 2019. Now, if the team referenced is playing at home, which the Patriots are has produced a 37-13 Over record good for 74% winning bets.

Duke vs Florida State
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
7:30 PM EST, ABC
8-Unit Best Bet on the Seminoles minus the 14 points

In a matchup of ranked teams where the home team is ranked in the Top-15 and favored by double digits and hosting a foe that is ranked 15th or higher in the latest poll and a total of 50 or fewer points have gone 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS.

Duke is 1-9 ATS following a blowout win of 21 or more points over a conference rival. FSU is 10-1 ATS following three straight games facing conference foes. UNC coming off a 24-3 win as 4-point favorites over NC State.  FSU is 6-0 on the season and coming off a 41-3 dominated win over Syracuse. They have scored 31 or more points in every game and have played a more difficult schedule than Duke. FSU played then No.5 LSU on a neutral field and won 45-24 and then two weeks later traveled to Clemson and won 31-24.

No. 2 Michigan vs Michigan State
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
7:30 EST NBC
8-Unit best bet on the Spartans plus the 24.5 points.

Michigan is 12-26 ATS in road games following a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits; 2-11 ATS following a game in which they scored 50 or more points.

Betting on dogs between 21 and 25.5 points following three or more straight-up losses and facing a conference foe in the month of October has earned a highly profitable 38-20-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This is a rivalry game and for Michigan State is their season as nothing else will really matter for them the remainder of the season.

Capital vs Canadiens
7 EST
8-Unit best Bet on the Capitals using the money line

Bet on road favorites between -110 and -150 that is getting outscored in the first period of an average of 0.2 or more goals and allowed four or more goals in their previous game has produced a solid 69-40 record and earning a 22% ROI since 2015. If a favorite between -125 and -150, the record improves to 34-15 for 69% winners and earning a 34% ROI since 2015.

Central Michigan vs Ball State

Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN

3:30 PM EST, Saturday
8-Unit best bet on the CMU minus the 5.5 points

Betting on road teams in a conference matchup with a total of 45 or fewer points that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in three of their last four games has gone 41-22-1 ATS for 65% winners over the past 10 seasons. If the host has a win percentage of 40% or lower, the road teams improve to 22-9 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Penn State vs Ohio State

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Noon ET

10-Unit Best Bet on Penn State plus the 5 points.

Consider betting this game with 8-units preflop and then look to add the remaining two units on PSU if OSU scores a TD first or regains the lead during the first half of action. From the models, there is a solid chance that if the research is correct, that PSU scores first and wins the game, which would eliminate any opportunity to get the 2-unit placed. Instead, playing a 6-Unit bet on the line and a 2-Unit bet on the money line preflop is a solid strategy too.

PSU has one of the top offensive yards per point ratio in the nation – even factoring out the scrimmages against UMASS and Delaware. Teams that are ranked in the Top-10 from week 7 on out, and have posted a 46-7 SU record and a 31-22 ATS mark for 59% winning bets. If the team has a YPPT of 11 or lower (more efficient) and priced as a road dog have gone 20-12-1 ATS for 63% winners.

The quarterback comparison is heavily in favor of PSU. In games against ranked AP opponents, Drew Allar has earned a 141 QB rating, completed 68% of his passes, averaged 166 passing yards per game and thrown for four touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception in any game. OSU’s Kyle McCord has posted a 111 QBR, completed only 57% of his passes, averaging 240 passing yards and throwing ZERO touchdowns.

Now, McCord has to go up against arguably the best defense in the nation that ranks #2 nationally allowing 8.2 PPG, best allowing 204 YPG, #2 allowing 0.128 points-per-play, best allowing 3.2 YPP, 8th allowing a 28% third down conversion rate, second allowing 67.4 rushing yards per game and allowing 2.1 yards per rush, best allowing 51% completion percentage, best allowing 4.9 yards per pass, #2 with a 14% sack percentage.

Penn State defeated UMASS 63-0 last week. That result may seem completely irrelevant for this game, but note that teams that scored 58 or more points and allowed six or fewer points in their previous game and now are priced as a road dog have gone 28-16 ATS for 64% since 1980 and if facing a conference foe they have gone 14-6 ATS for 70% winners.

PSU QB Drew Allar has a canon for an arm and despite the grey skies, I do believe you will see vertical crossing routes deep down the field using play action. PSU offensive line is tremendous and the best unit that Franklin has ever had. The ground attack is going to control the line of scrimmage and then when you see the OSU safeties creep closer and closer to the LOS to support the run defense I when these ’bomb’s will be thrown. Note, too, that OSU has allowed and gotten 10 sacks on the season. PSU has 26 sacks 50 tackles for loss and has allowed a sack on just 2.4% of all plays run ranking 9th-best nationally.

PSU is the better team on the OL and DL and we are getting points.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

8:07 PM EST, October 20, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 4 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship.

Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season.

The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven.

In the playoffs, teams with a 2-1 series lead and lost their last game are 36-20 (64%) 30% ROI

If a rod favorite: 9-2 (82%) 47% ROI

Teams that are winning the series and have a bullpen that is allowing

NJ Devils vs NY Islanders

7:37 EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Devils using the money line, currently at -115

Betting on road teams that are favored between -110 and -150 that are getting outscored in the first period by 0.2 or more goals and are coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals has produced a 72-43 (63%) record and earning a 21% ROI since 2014. If a divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 26-13 for 67% and earning a 27% ROI over the past 10 seasons.

The predictive model tells us that NJ is 42-4 when they have allowed two or fewer goals in games played over the past two seasons.

SMU vs Temple
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
7:00 PM EST, ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on the SMU Mustangs minus the points

Betting on road teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now taking on a host that scored 17 or fewer points in their last game has earned a 133-66-2 ATS record for 67% winners. If the game is a conference matchup and our road team is favored by 17 or more points, the record soars to 45-3 SU, 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 2010.

Betting on road teams that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in four consecutive games has gone 87-41-4 ATS for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is a double-digit favorite, they soar to 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Jacksonville vs. New Orleans
8:15 PM EST on Prime Video
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
8-Unit Best Bet Over the total, currently at 40 points, but there are 39.5 prices available.

The market is overwhelmingly betting the Under all week and pushing it lower. 77% of the tickets bet this week are on the Under.

Saints are 22-7-1 Over in home games and taking on a foe that is averaging 45 or fewer penalty yards per game. JAX is 51-32 Over after having won four or five of their last six games; 31-15 ATS off a home win to a divisional rival. JAX head coach Pederson is 17-6 Over when priced as a 7 or fewer road underdog.

Since 1991, there have been just four teams to start out their seasons with 6 consecutive Under results. They all went 4-0 SUATS and 4-0 OVER. Teams that played six consecutive games Under the posted total and playing in weeks 7 through 10 have seen the Over go 24-10 for 71% winners. If the total is less than 43 points, the Over has gone 21-8 for 72.4% winning bets.

Also, the Jaguars have really gotten it together over the past several weeks and without anyone noticing. They have produced a 11.8 yards per point ratio on offense for their last three games, which is third best in the league and a 21.9 YPPT ratio defensively over their last three games, which ranks 2nd in the league.

Betting on a road AFC team that is facing an NFC team, who have won four or five of their last 6 games and has posted a strong 21 or higher defensive YPPT ratio over their last three games has seen the Over go 41-22 for 65% winning bets.

Last, the Over price reflects the uncertainty or likelihood that Trevor Lawrence will not play tonight for the Jaguars. However, I am hearing that there is a much higher probability he will be under center tonight.

Thursday Night Football 8-UNIT Best Bet Total

James Madison vs Marshall
Jean C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV
7 EST on ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on Marshall plus the points

JMU is off to a perfect 6-0 start and are one of 11 undefeated FBS teams left in the nation. Marshall is a member of the Sun Belt and they need to a win to keep pace for the conference lead with Georgia State given that JMU is not eligible having moved up from the FCS last season. Also, JMU is coming off a monster win on the scoreboard winning by 28 points but outgaining Georgia Southern by just 18 total yards.

Betting on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game  in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has turned in a +1 turnover advantage in each of their previous two games has produced a highly profitable 20-9-3 ASTS for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons.

NCAAF Thursday Night Sun Belt

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:07 PM EST, October 19, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 3 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship.

Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season.

The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. Road teams in the playoffs that have won the first two games of the series are 28-23 for 55% averaging a +111 DOG and earning a 17% ROI.

The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who was drafted #1569 overall in the 5th round of 2020 draft and attended Bellarmine University. He is a right-handed pitcher and MLB prototype 6-4 and 220 pounds. He throws 4-seam 45%, a slurve 27%, change up to mostly LH batters 12% and a sinker 10% and the rest a rare curveball. Since he does throw a slurve (Now called a sweeper and I hate it TBH) so the curve ball rarity is pointless.

The bad news for Pfaadt other than being thrown into the Lion’s den, is that he ranks poorly in pitching run value, and just the fifth percentile in fastball run value. Worse yet he ranks in the bottom third percentage in barrel percentage and that is what the Phillies lineup top to bottom does very well right now. I think the Diamondbacks will look to get him through the lineup at least once and no more than twice and then look to their bullpen to finish off the remaining innings.

Of the 1,612 pitches he has thrown, he has yielded 109 hits and 26 walks over 96 innings. 74 of the 109 hits allowed had exit velocities of over 100 MPH, which is horrid, especially against a power-hitting team like the Phillies. Moreover, his expected weighted OBP is 0.291enterig this game.

Brandon Pfaadt Under 11.5 recorded outs +110 at BetMGM

Bryson Stott to record an RBI +225 at UniBet

Corbin Carroll to record a double +550 at Bet365

Nick Castellanos to score a run +170 at DrfatKings

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

15.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

16.  Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

17.  Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

18.  Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100

19.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100

20.  Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100

21.  Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers – W +116

22.  Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel – L - 160

23.  Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM – W +100

24.  Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM – W +120

25.  Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one) L -50

                 Total: +701

Las Vegas vs New York

Wednesday, 7 EST WNBA Finals

8-Unit Best Bet on the New York Liberty minus the 3.5 points

Betting on any team coming off an upset win of 10 or more points and has played just three games in their past 10 days have gone 63-44-2 ATS for 59% winning bets and if our team is playing at home has earned a 33-21-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. If the total in these games was between 160 and 175 points, their record goes to 15-8-1 ATS for 65% winning bets.

Houston vs Texas

8:03 PM EST, October 18, 2023

Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX

8-UNIT BEST BET on the Texas Rangers using the money line

The Rangers have been nearly as hot as the Phillies in their playoff run and a bit surprising too given that they blew the division crown in the Final weeks and had to go on the road to play a best-of-three series at the Tampa Bay Rays. Texas has won all seven of their playoff games and just one of those games has been at home. They have outscored their foes 39-16 including two shutouts.

Teams that won the first two games of a playoff series on the road and now at home have gone 21-14 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 15% ROI. If they are a favorite of not more than -150, they have gone 15-9 SU averaging a -129 wager and earning a 17% ROI. Texas is 14-6 for 70% averaging a -117-wager earning a 35% ROI when facing a foe that is scoring an average of 4.8 or more RPG in games played after the all start break this season.

Florida International vs. Sam Houston State

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX

8-Unit Best Bet on FIU plus the points, currently priced at 5.

With the total priced at 41 points, scoring volatility will be below normal and limits the opportunity for a live in-game first half bet. So, I recommend placing the 8-Units all at once preflop.

Betting on dogs of 4.5 to 9.5 points in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season that are coming off back-to-back conference losses of 10 or more points have gone 27-33 SU and 42-17-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:07 PM EST, October 17, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

Dan Iassogna will be the home plate umpire and for the 2023 season, home teams have gone just 10-20 SU under his strike zone watch. This is quite misleading as coincidentally he was behind the plate in 14 of those games with the home team posting a losing record at the time and with that team going 4-10. So, winning record home teams went 6-10 on the season with Iassogna as the home plate umpire. In the playoffs this will be his 15th game behind the plate and the home team is 7-7, but the Over is 8-4 for 67%. Also, for his career, winning record home teams are 90-71 (56%) when facing a winning record foe.

Here is the umpire angle supporting the Phillies. When Iassogna has been behind the dish, winning record home favorites of -150 or more hosting a winning record foe have gone 33-12 for 73% averaging a -178 wager and earning a 22% ROI for his career.

Phillies’ skipper Rob Thomson is 41-15 making 22 units when facing a NL foe that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of the season in each of the previous two seasons.

In the playoffs, teams that have batted .230 or worse over their previous 15 games have gone 69-104 (40%) averaging a +105 wager and a money-losing -23% ROI. If these teams are on the road have gone 28-52 for 35% averaging a 121 wager and a losing -24% ROI. If the game 2 or beyond and coming off a loss, these road teams have gone 11-26 (30%) averaging a +118 wager and a losing -37% ROI.

Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers

Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel

Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM

Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM

Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one)

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

15.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

16.  Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

17.  Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

18.  Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100

19.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100

20.  Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100

                 Total: +575

Tampa Bay vs Buffalo

7:30 PM EST

8-Unit best bet on the TB Lightning using the money line.

The Lightning are 31-24 averaging a +125 wager making 23 units when on the road and coming off two consecutive road losses over the past 20 seasons and 13-6 averaging a -110 wager and earning a 27% ROI over the past 10 seasons. Lightning head coach Jon Cooper is 145-77 for 65% wins averaging a -132 wager and earning a 28% ROI when having lost two of their last three games. If that game had the Lightning priced between a -125 favorite and a +125 underdog they went on to produced a 50-34 record averaging a _104 wager and earning a 20% ROI.

Also, I prefer to have Jonas Johansson in net.

MNF: Dallas vs LA Chargers

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers +1.5 points

Consider betting 6-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if Dallas scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead or retakes the lead by 4 or more points during the first half of action.

Betting on teams using the money line following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers and now taking on a foe that committed four or more turnovers in their previous game has earned a 36-12 record for 75% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons. If the game has a total of 50 or more points, they have gone on to a near-perfect 6-1 SUATS mark for 86% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive model, the Chargers are a rock-solid 62-8 SU (89%) and 58-12 ATS (83%) winning bets in home games in which they scored 23 or more points and forced two or more turnovers.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

8:07 PM EST, October 16, 2023

8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to dd 2 unit smore if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.

Based on the analytics, on-base-percentage supersedes home run hitting in the playoffs. Of course, there are the games like Game 4 of the NLCS where all the runs scored in the 3-1 Phillies win were solo home runs. However, the innings and at-bats prior to those home runs set the stage for the Phillies to hit six home runs in Game 3 and three in Game 4. In the playoffs, keeping a starting pitcher under duress with consistent base-running traffic will set the stage for the home run and ultimately the dominant factor in most playoff wins. Then first and third situation is the most stressful for a starting pitcher and the Phillies have generated far more of those situations than any other team in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, the Diamondbacks have 44 hits, 21 walks, and 19 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have amassed 54 hits, 23 walks, and 26 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have attained an outstanding 0.411 on-base-percentage while the Diamondbacks are right on their heels posting a 0.393 OBP in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks rank tops in the playoffs having seen an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearance and the Phillies rank 4th averaging 4.05 pitches seen per plate appearance.

The Phillies’ left fielder Nick Castellanos became the first player in MLB post season history to hit two or more home runs in consecutive games and ranks best with 23 total bases in the playoffs. He and teammate Trea Turner rank best with six extra-base hits. Turner ranks best with a remarkable 0.556 batting average of balls in play and 7th in Isolated Power.  The depth of this lineup gives the Phillies a significant offensive advantage over the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies’ Rookie sensation and center fielder Johan Rojas is already one of the best in the game today and was credited with a potential series saving catch in the gap in deep left-center fielder off the bat of Ronald Acuna. His defense far outweighs his struggles at the plate, and it is a bonus when he gets on base to turn the lineup over. JR Realmuto is the best catcher in the game bar none and over the Phillies defense is monumentally better and more consistent than the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson, who utilized 110 different starting lineups this season, and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against any team and have by far the best home field advantage and their incredibly supportive and passionate fan base. There are home field advantages and then there is Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park.

As was the case in the two previous series, the biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen, which was outstanding against the Braves. The unit is clearly an example of when you are called into the game just do your job. Phillies’ manager Rob Thomson used the relievers in various roles in the regular and playoff seasons and even had Matt Strahm on the hill to close out the series against the Braves, which was just hist his third save of the season.

In the Phillies’ 3-1 Game-4 win that clinched the Divisional Series over the Braves, both Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber failed to get a hit. In past games, the Phillies are 9-3 following a game in which Schwarber and Stott did not get a hit. Stott and Schwarber are on my radar for the DraftKings lineups for the first two games of this series. Supports Phillies in Game 1.

Phillies are 38-14 averaging a -165 wager and earning a 33% ROI in home games and taking on a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower in games played after the all-star break and playoffs in the past two seasons.

Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the first game of a playoff series spanning the last two seasons.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-8 record for 80% winning bets in games played in October and November over the past five regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a foe that has achieved a 0.480 slugging percentage over their previous five games in the month of October.

My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the money line and then look to add the remaining two units if the Diamondbacks score first or retake the lead during the first four innings of this game as offered at DraftKings.\

Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365

Bryson Stott to hit a double +525 at BetRivers

Alex Bohm to get a hit -250 at Unibet

Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings

1.     Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

8.     Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM  L -140

9.     Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145

10.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100

11.  Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105

12.  Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100

13.  Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100

14.  Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100

15.  Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings

16.  Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars

17.  Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365

18.  Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers

                 Total: +875

Florida vs New Jersey

7:07 PM EST

8-Unit best bet on Florida using the money line.

The following algorithm has earned a highly profitable 40-24 averaging a +137 dog bet and earning a 43% ROI over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs of not more than 180 using the money line that scored four or more goals in their previous game and now facing a host that is coming off two consecutive games in which they and their foes each scored 3 or more goals.

Also, I prefer to have Sergei Bobrovsky in goal for the Panthers.

NHL 8-Unit Best Bet

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders

4:05 PM EST, Week 6

10-Unit best bet OVER the posted total

The Patriots are certainly struggling right now, especially on offense where they have scored a total of three points over their last two games and got shutout in their last game. The Patriots have seen their last four games play under the total and by a combined 19 points and in large part because of their anemic pathetic offensive performances. On defense they have allowed the opponents team total to go Over by a combined 22 points over their last four games and by 29 points over their last two games. The Patriots offense has played Under their team total by an incredibly poor 44 points.

Teams that have played under their team total by 40 or more points and are on the road have gone 22-27 SU and 33-16 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Teams that have scored 3 or fewer points in their last two games have seen the Over go 10-3 for 77% winners and teams that have scored 6 or fewer points over their last two games have gone 29-12 Over for 71% winning bets.

Betting the Over with road teams in a game with a posted total of 37.5 to 42.5 points that are averaging an anemic 14 or fewer points per game and coming off two consecutive double-digit losses has seen the Over go 35-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1990 and 6-1 Over spanning the past five seasons.

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

1:00 EST, Week 6

8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points, currently priced at +14.5 points.

Well, periodically, the numbers do point solidly to a dog, or perhaps better stated using the noun mutt, or a dog with a serious case of fleas, and this is certainly one of those opportunities. Carolina is winless at 0-5 and the Dolphins are 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home and considered by many to be the team to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC.

Betting on Dogs, with or without fleas, that are facing a non-divisional foe that has gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games and is also averaging at least 6 yards per play for the season have gone an amazing 11-15 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Several months ago, when the Circa and a few others released their full season betting lines, the Dolphins were priced as a 7-point home favorite. The market has moved the price to a whopping 14.5 points an increase of 7.5 points. I have studied and participated in the Circa and WestGate and numerous other contests and when the line moves 6 or more points from those opening preseason lines presents a sold contrarian betting opportunity. The market and betting communities over react and price the surging juggernauts higher than warranted and discount the talents of struggling winless teams too much– not always of course.

Winless teams on the road in weeks 4 through 7 of the regular season are 32-13-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the are priced as double-digit dogs has produced an 8-3 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the 2.5 points

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that are coming off a loss of three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points in their previous game have gone 30-10 SU and 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Home dogs in this role are 12-14 SU and 17-9 ASTS for 65% winners, and 17-8-1 Over the total for 68% winners. If priced as a four or fewer point dog, they soar to 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets.

Saints are 1-8 ATS when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards and 1-10 ATS after allowing three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game spanning the past three seasons. Regression.

49ers vs Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM EST, Week 6

8-Unit Best bet on the Browns plus the 10 or more points

Watson is not starting, but the market has all of this priced into the current level of 10 points. The 49ers coming off a 32-point victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys and now will be facing a vastly underrated defensive unit that I believe can keep this game quite close no matter who is under center for the Browns offense.

Bet on home underdogs that are facing a foe that has defeated their opponents by an average of 10 or more PPG and with that foe coming off a double-digit win have gone 40-45 SU, 60-24-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foes win was by 21 or more points, these dogs have gone 22-28 SU and 34-15-1 ATS for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foe is also averaging fewer than 1 turnovers per game have seen these dogs go 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets.

USC vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Damer, IN

7:30 EST NBC/Peacock

8-Unit Best Bet on the Trojans plus the 2.5 points.

This game is a matchup of ranked teams with USC taking to the road with a 6-0 SU record to take on a desperate Notre Dame squad with two losses on the season. USC is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 Over for the season. The Irish are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS including a 4-3 Under result on the season. USC  has lost to the spread and seen the Over win the money in each of their last three games. Notre Dame has lost two of their last three games in a most-difficult schedule and covered the spread in just one. Notre Dame lost 17-14 hosting Ohio State, then took to the road and won a tough-fought game 21-14 at Duke, and then another road game losing at Louisville by the final score of 33-20. The Irish team is experiencing a fatigue problem on both sides of the ball, but regardless will have to be fully prepared if they have hopes of upsetting USC and their reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Smith.

Supporting USC is the following betting system that has produced a 23-24 SU record and 25-12 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

1.     Bet on a road teams priced between the 4’s.

2.     That road team is coming off a game in which they and their foe scored 31 or more points in their previous game.

3.     The game is a non-conference matchup.