Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers

Game-5 Eastern Conference Playoffs

7:30 PM EST, June 16, 2021

4-unit Best Bet on the 76ers minus the points

Embiid is expected to play tonight and I recommend making this bet about 10-minutes prior to game time. Another option, which is what I will do, is bet 50% of my normal 4% amount at 4:00 ET and then look to add 25% in-game at 76ers +3.5 and then 25% 76ers at pick-em. Another in-game strategy is bet the 76ers line after the Hawks score 10 or more unanswered points. All of the these betting strategies are valid just for the first-half.

Atlanta shot 37% from the field in their 103-100 win in Game-4. Note that road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that shot less than 40% in the previous game which they won are just 10-34 SU and 17-27 ATS for 38% and 27-17 UNDER. Not a recommendation for the UNDER on my part.

Philadelphia will get it done in game-5 no matter how many minutes Embiid plays tonight.

My machine learning models predict that the 76ers will score at least 117 points. The implied final score based on a 224 point total and the 76ers favored by 7 points is a 76ers 116-108 home win. In past home games in which the 76ers scored at least 115 points and had more fast break points than their guest did has earned an incredible 42-3 SU record, 37-8 ATS mark for 82% winning bets and 32-13 to the OVER.

June 11, 2021, Best Bets

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Friday, 6/11/2021 at 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best bet on the 76ers using the money line

Let’s start with a tried-and-true betting angle that has earned a 24-10 ATS record for 71.2% winning bets over the past five seasons including the playoffs. The requirements are to bet on a team involved in a game lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em and is facing an elite opponent that has won 12 of their last 15 games. This backs the 76ers. 

From the predictive models, there is a high expectation that the 76ers will exceed 115 points in this game, have fewer turnovers, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past road games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these expectations has earned bettors backing the 76ers a solid 99-12 SU and 88-24 ATS for 78.2% winning bets over the last five seasons including the playoffs. 

Milwaukee vs Brooklyn
Game-2, Second Round of the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs          

Monday, 6/7/2021 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Nets

The money line is the way to go on this play given the skinny line right now pricing the Nets as 1.5-point home favorites. Pinnacle (Pinny) is offering a money line price of -111 currently and is cheaper than other books line price of -1.15 with -110 vig. This play will be graded as a money line play.

Nets are a solid 36-15 ATS when they have faced an opponent that has made 46% or more of their shot attempts this season; 16-9 ATS after game number 41 of this. Season and many of those games did not have the big-3 on the court together.

Betting on home teams using the money line after game number 41, in a matchup of excellent ball handling teams committing no more than 14.5 turnovers-per-game, are excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 79% of their attempts, and the opponent has made 70 to 75% of their free throw attempts on the season has earned an outstanding 73% winning bets on a 77-29 record spanning the last five seasons.

Moreover, since the rise in scoring that started three seasons previous and has averaged 111 to 112.1 PPG, the previous betting angle has earned an outstanding 46-10 SU record good for 82% winning bets.

Atlanta vs Philadelphia
Game-1, Second Round of the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs          

Sunday, 6/5/2021 1:00 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

Getting right to the point, the UNDER sports a perfect 11-0 UNDER record in Game-1 of a playoff series spanning the past five seasons. Three seasons past, the NBA scoring average jumped from 106 PPG to 111 PPG and has inched higher in each of the last three seasons to this seasons 112.2 PPG. So, it is important that the aforementioned angle is considering only the past five seasons because previous to that slice of games, there were few playoff games with totals of 220 or more points.

The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid for at least this game and clearly points to head coach Doc Rivers putting 100% of the focus on the 76ers tremendous defensive presence led by Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. Simmons started Game-5 as the Center in their close-out and dominating win over the Washington Wizards. Moreover, as I had suggested for weeks on the Predictive Playbook shows (Monday through Friday starting at 4:15 ET), the 76ers finally started Thybulle and it worked better than my expectations.

Atlanta’s best player is Trey Young and all season long, Simmons has been assigned to defend the best player on the opponent’s team. No doubt this will happen once again in this game and the series. Earlier this season, Simmons, defended Yannis and held him to career lows in scoring for a first half and the Bucks scored just 29 pts in that first-half of action.

The Knicks are listed as the best defensive unit in the Eastern Conference, but that is before you factor in [pace-of play, which the 76ers play much faster tempo than the Knicks have this season. The 76ers are the best defensive unit by a large margin in the Eastern Conference and that defense will come to the forefront this afternoon.

The Hawks are 6-1 UNDER when revenging two double-digit losses to the current opponent.

Milwaukee vs Brooklyn         

Saturday, 6/5/2021 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets

Let’s start with a betting angle that has earned a solid 64-33 record for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on home teams (Nets) in a matchup of winning record teams and now facing an opponent has covered the spread in their last three games installed as a favorite.

The Nets are 30-14-1 ATS when facing an opponent that is making at least 46% of their shot attempts on the season in this season. They are also 35-16-2 ATS this season when facing a team that is scoring at least 112 PPG (League Average).

The machine learning applications predict that the Nets will score at least 115 points in this game. The Bucks are just 15-33 SU and 7-41 ATS in road games and have allowed at least 115 points spanning games played over the last three seasons.

TAMPA BAY (35 - 23) at TEXAS (23 - 35)       

Saturday, 6/5/2021 4:05 PM

Rich Hill (L) vs. Kolby Allard (L)

The last time these two teams hooked up for a series it did not go well for the Tampa Bay Rays, who were swept in that 3-game series. Making it even more shocking is that it was a 3-gae sweep by the Rangers on the road. The Rangers won 8-3, 5-1, and 6-4 back on April 13,14, and 15. Making matte3rs worse for the Rays is they lost Game-1 of this series last night to the Rangers making it four straight losses.

The good news for the Rays is the following betting angle and system supports them quite well. Betting on teams that are revenging a 4-game losing streak to the current opponent and is a non-divisional matchup. This set of parameters has earned a remarkable 47-22 record good for 68% winning bets. If you like this play a lot, as I do, you can bet the Run Line knowing that this angle has gone 38-20 for 65.5% making the $100 bettor a $2,010 profit.

So, alternative bet is to bet 80% of your average bet size on the money line and then add 20% more using the Run Line. This combination wager will optimize the betting opportunity and add more profits to the bottom line over the course of the season.

LA CLIPPERS (49 - 28) at DALLAS (45 - 32)     

Friday, 6/4/2021 9:00 PM

5-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

The American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas, will be filled with passionate Maverick fans, but the LA Clippers will still be considered the favorites in this Game-6 Elimination game despite trailing 3-2 in the series. Granted, 2-points is not much of a road favorite, and I do see the Mavericks as undervalued by the betting markets.

The last time the first five games of an NBA playoff series went to the visitors was the 1994-95 season Western Conference finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, which the Rockets did win 4-2 and then went on to sweep the Orlando Magic in four games for the NBA Championship. Houston won on the road by 21 points at San Antonio and then closed at the series in Houston in Game-6 by the final score of 100-95.

The following NBA Betting angle is one of my more complex mathematical gems, but it is not that difficult to understand. What matters I that the angle has won 68% of the UNDER bets made over the last five seasons on a remarkable 74-35-2record.

Bet the under with a road team playing with revenge.

The road team’s average points scored in their road games added to the opponents average points allowed in their home games is 2.5% greater than the posted total.

The UNDER has won the money in at least 50% of the opponent’s home games on the season.

This set of game parameters has gone an incredible 20-2-2 for 91% winning UNDER best in the 2020 season including winning the last 10 games.

This season, Dallas is 17-3 UNDER when facing an opponent that is making 48% or more of their field goal attempts; 10-3 UNDER when facing teams making at least 39% of their 3-point shot attempts and 6-2 UNDER since the mid-point of the 2020 regular season.

PHILADELPHIA (52 - 23) at WASHINGTON (35 - 42)    

Monday, 5/31/2021 7:00 PM

Game-4 First Round

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total.

The 76ers certainly have dominated this series over the first three games and there is little reason to believe this series will extend beyond tonight’s game. However, the UNDER is the preferred best bet to make.

Betting on the UNDER with all teams where the total is 230 or more points after having won four or five of their last six games, and is playing no more than their 6th game in the past 14 days.

The 76ers are 13-3 to the UNDER when on the road in a game with a total of 230 or more points over the past three seasons. Over the past 25 season, the 76ers are 18-4 UNDER in Game-4 of a playoff series. The Wizards are 15-7 UNDER coming off a double-digit loss this season.

Bet the UNDER in Game-4. If the total is below 230, it does not invalidate this bet. So, even if it is 228 points, for instance, the bet is on the UNDER.

BROOKLYN (50 - 25) at BOSTON (38 - 38)          

Sunday, 5/30/2021 7:00 PM

NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and with that opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points has earned a highly profitable 42-11 SU and 37-14-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

Brookyln is 32-17 ATS (+1370 per $100 bet) when facing teams scoring at or above the NBA League average of 112 or more points-per-game this season. Boston is just 4-18 ATS (-1550 per $100 bet) when facing teams who average 7 or fewer steals-per-game this season. Plus, Boston is just 7-22 ATS in home games facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in the second half of each of the last three seasons.

Take the Brooklyn Nets minus the points.

TAMPA BAY (39-18-0-4, 82 pts.) at CAROLINA (40-12-0-10, 90 pts.)   

Sunday, 5/30/2021 5:00 PM

Central Division Playoffs
Second Round Best-Of-7 - Game 1

Betting on any team, in this matchup Tampa bay, using the money line) off a home win where they shut out their opponent and now facing an opponent coming off a road win over a division rival has earned a highy profitable 28-5 over the last 5 NHL seasons.

Tampa Bay is an outstanding 70-30 against the money line ($2525 for the $100 bettor) when facing a good starting goalies saving at least 91.5% of shots in games played over the last three seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO (32 - 20) at LA DODGERS (31 - 21)    

Sunday, 5/30/2021 4:10 PM

KEVIN GAUSMAN (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)

The Dodgers Kershaw is a remarkable 133-47 (+$5000-per$100 bet ) when facing teams stranding avg of 6.9 or fewer runners on base-per-game. His team record is 24-13 when starting against San Francisco Giants with an ERA of 1.77 and a WHIP of 0.873.

The Giants starting pitcher Kevin Gausman is just 0-2 in four career starts when starting against Law Dodgers with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.377.

The active players on the Dodgers roster have combined to hit Gausman for a 0.324 batting average. Leading the list is Mookie Betts, who is batting 0.439 with a 0.404 OBP in 47 plate appearances against Gausman. The Giants Buster Posey is batting 0.221 in 120 career plate appearances when facing Kershaw.

Take the LA Dodgers using the money line over the San Francisco Giants.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 9:30 PM ET

Game 3: Series tied 1-1

Jazz @ Grizzlies

FedExForum, Memphis, TN

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points

This series is tied at 1-game a piece, but Utah is clearly the much better team in this matchup with the Grizzlies. What I like most, is that the Jazz have produced a 0.31 free throw to field goal attempt ratio. This means that they are taking 31% of the total field goals attempted over the first two games, and means they are getting to the charity stripe at a high rate. The Jazz will look to get this ratio to an evem higher level, which puts the Grizzlies in potential foul trouble in the first half. The Grizzlies are not nearly as deep as the Jazz and it will be a monumental advantage to the Jazz if they make more free throws than the Grizzlies.

From the predictive side of things, the ML models project that the Jazz will shoot at least 48% from the field and make at least 20 free throws. Over the past three seasons, playoff teams that have met or erxceeded these performance measures have earned a 48-8 SU record and 42-12 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last three playoff seasons.

Bet the Utah Jazz as a 8-UNIT Best Bet minus the points.

NY ISLANDERS (36-19-0-7, 79 pts.) at BOSTON (37-16-0-8, 82 pts.)     

Saturday, 5/29/2021 8:00 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the pposted total.

Betting the Over  with a road team revenging a close loss to the current opponent of no more than a single goal, and are coming off three consecutive wins against division rivals has won 75% of bets replaced on a 27-9 record spanning the last 10 seasons. The Islanders are 21-11 OVER revenging a close loss to the current opponent of 1 goal or less over the last two seasons.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 7:00 PM ET

Game 3: PHI leads series 2-0

76ers @ Wizards

Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

The 76ers have dominated the Wizards through the first two games and there is no reason not to expect that domination again here in Game-3. The 76ers are the best defensive team in the NBA, in my opinion, and will focus even more attention on the defensive end in this road game. This season, the 76ers are 13-4 UNDER when facing an opponent that averages a minimum of six or more made 3-point shots-per-game OR attempts an average of 18 3-point shot attempts-per-game.

Betting the UNDER in a playoff game with a total of at least 225 or more points and one of the teams averages at least 7 steals-per-game has earned a 27-17-1 UNDER record good for 61% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Plus, 76ers are 15-4 UNDER in a road game and coming off an UNDER game this season.

Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle are two of the best defensive players in the NBA. Simmons is a definite contender for the Defensive Player of the Year award and Thybulle’s defensive measures are insanely good because he is averaging about 20-minutes-per-game. His minutes are increasing in the playoffs and despite being a guard, he is averaging a series-leading 3.5 blocks-per-game. In addition to his defensive prowess, Simmons has averaged a triple-double in this series averaging 12 assists-per-game, 12 rebounds-per-game, and 14 PPG. Simmons is very strong 6-11 point guard and Bradley Beal has admitted that it is much more difficult to score poinnts when he is defended by Simmons.

My machine learning applications are ex[ecting no more than 88 shot attempts by the 76ers. They are 18-6 UNDER for 75% winning bets, this season, when they have attempted no more than 88 shots.

Bet the UNDER in Game-3

MIAMI (24 - 27) at BOSTON (31 - 20)       

Saturday, 5/29/2021 4:10 PM

TREVOR ROGERS (L) vs. NATHAN EOVALDI (R)

5-UNIT MLB Best Bet on the Boston Red Sox

Betting against NL team with a below average slugging percentage of 0.400 or lower  and is starting a pitcher in top form sporting a WHIP of 1.100 or better over his last 10 games amd is now facing a team with a solid performaing bullpen sporting a WHIP of 1.350 or better on the season has earned a 86-33 rwecord for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Red Sox skipper Cora is anm outstanding 16-4 (+15.0 units or $1,500 per $100 bet) on the money line when facing an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better in all games he has managed.

The Red SDox are 11-5 this season when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. Plus, the Red Sox bullpen has been incredible this season and over the last 7 games has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.318 WHIP spanning 22 innings of work and a 3-0 save record.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 4:00 PM ET

Game 4: DEN leads series 2-1

Nuggets @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center, Portland, OR

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets plus the points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line.

Denver, despite its injuries, took back home court with a win in Game 3 Thursday night in Portland. The Trail Blazers went ice-cold from beyomd the arc in their 120-115 loss, shooting 14-for-45, and the Nuggets took advantage by having made the defensive adjustments they did for Gasme-3. I do not see Portland being able to offset the adjustments that Denver made in game-3 and they are expected to lose this game at home. With a Game-4 win, Denver then will have a home elimination game for Game-5.

Denver has gotten the usual stellar performance from MVP favorite Nikola Jokic, but it has been the role players who have given the Nuggets an edge in the series. Campazzo nearly had a triple-double in Game 3 (11 points, eight rebounds and eight assists) and took a borderline charge on Nurkic, who fouled out in the fourth quarter. Campazzo is a 30-year-old NBA rookie who has been thrust into a starting role with injuries to Murray, Will Barton and PJ Dozier, and he has responded extremely well.

Denver has excellent ball movement and Portland is just 18-32 ATS in home games when facing teams averaging 23 or more assists-per-game over the last two seasons. Denver is 12-4 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. Portland is 4-12 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more over two straight games this season.

From the predictive side of my machine learning apps, Denver is expected to score at least 115 points in this game. In road games installed as an underdog, the Nuggets have earned a 10-7 SU record and 13-4 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Bet the Denver Nuggets as a 4-UNIT best bet plus the points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

WASHINGTON (35 - 40) at PHILADELPHIA (50 - 23)    

Wednesday, 5/26/2021 7:00 PM

Game-2 of the First Round

10-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.

The 76ers are a solid 22-13-1 ATS in home games and facing a team that is averaging 112 or more PPG in games played over the last two seasons. Wizards are 18-35 ATS in road tilts after having lost two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. 76ers are a highly profitable 16-6 ATS in home games coming off an ATS loss and with a total of 220 or more points over the last two seasons.

A lot of negative news out about how poorly he played on the offensive end down the stretch. He did have 15 rebounds and 15 assists BUT did go 0-for-6 from the charity stripe. However, the 76ers are 55-38-2 for 59% following a game in which Ben Simmons made no more than one free throw. The 76ers are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored fewer than 10 points and 16-8 ATS in home games coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored less than 10 points. 76ers are a remarkable 21-4 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games and coming off a home game in which Ben Simmons had 10 or more assists. Including, 14-1 SU and ATS coming a home game getting at least 10 assists and now his team is at home installed as a favorite of 4.5 to 9.5 points.

My models are predicting that the 76ers will score at least 118 points and make at least 33% of their 3-point shot attempts. In past games, when the 76ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 43-4 SU and 33-14 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past three seasons.

Take the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points. 

LA LAKERS (43 - 31) at PHOENIX (52 - 21)         

Tuesday, 5/25/2021 10:00 PM

Western Conference - First Round – Best-Of -7 - Game 2

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

The Lakers are:
26-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

30-12 UNDER when facing 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

13-4 UNDER when facing elite shooting teams making 48% or more of their shots this season.

Bet the UNDER with any team where the total is greater than or equal to 205 points, after going under the total by more than 22 points in their previous game, a good team with a win percentage between 60% to 75% and is playing a team with a winning record. This system has earned a 78-30-8 UNDER for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. If the total is 225 or lower, the record has been 52-21-6 for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons. If the game is taking place in the playoffs, the record has been 10-5-2 UNDER over the last three seasons.

So, here is one of my more advanced betting angles that has produced a 107-48-6 UNDER record good for 69% winning bets. The average points scored in road games by the road team and the average points scored by the home team in their home games is at least 2.5% greater than the current posted total, and the team (Lakers) lost the previous matchup, and the opponent (Suns) has seen the UNDER  win 40% or more in their home games on the season.

ATLANTA (41 - 31) at NEW YORK (41 - 31)        

Sunday, 5/23/2021 7:00 PM

5-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

New York Knicks are:
24-14 UNDER when facing good 3 point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

Betting the UNDER in a game with a total between 210 and 219.5 points and a team is coming off back-to-back double-digit home wins and revenging a loss to the current opponent, who scored 112 or more points in that loss has earned a solid 34-11 UNDER record for 76% winning bets.

Betting the UNDER in the following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-11-1 record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet UNDER in the first game of the Round 1 playoffs in which the previous matchup between the two teams went OVER the posted total. If the total has been 210 or more points, the record has been 11-3 UNDER for 80% winning bets.

From the predictive metrics, the Knicks are 65-24-1 UNDER for 73% in home games in which their opponent shot 47% or lower from the field and shot 37% or lower from beyond the arc in games played over the last five seasons.

LA LAKERS (43 - 30) at PHOENIX (51 - 21)

Sunday, 5/23/2021 3:30 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

The Lakers are: 

25-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

29-12 UNDER facing  3 point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.

34-16 UNDER facing teams scoring an average of 112 or more points-per-game (NBA League Average) this season.

14-1 UNDER after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season.

Betting the UNDER in the following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-11-1 record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet UNDER in the first game of the Round 1 playoffs in which the previous matchup between the two teams went OVER the posted total. If the total has been 210 or more points, the record has been 11-3 UNDER for 80% winning bets. 

Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers

1:00 PM EST, May 23, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelpphia 76ers

This is the first of many Best Bets in NBA, MLB, and the NHL for Sunday. So, please stop back to get the complete card including a top-rated 5-Unit Game of the Month. All bets will be released by Noon ET.

Here are a few of the situational angles that support the 76ers. They are 21-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 24-11 ATS in home games facing faster-paced teams averaging 88 or more shots-per-game over the last two seasons.

Betting on home favorites of 2.5 to 9.5 points that are hosting a team they previously defeated by double-digits and with that opponent coming off a double-digit home win has earned a 140-91-5 ATS record good for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons.

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 120 points and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio in this game. In past home games, when the 76ers have met or exceeded these performance measures, has produced a 35-12 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets
Saturday, 5/22/2021 8:00 PM

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points

The Celtics lost all three games to the Nets this season and none of the losses had the star trio of Harden, Durant, and Irving on the floor at the same time. They will be playing only the ninth game together and have played just 203 total minutes together in games played this season. The Celtics are without their best player in Jaylen Brown and all signals point to a best double-digit win.

Betting on home teams that have posted three consecutive games with a 2.5 or better assist-to-turnover ratio and facing an opponent that has a season-to-date assist-to-turnover ratio below 2.0 has earned an outstanding 18-9-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The betting lines ikmply a 119-111 Nets win and the predictive models that I have developed over more than two decades see a high probability that the Nets will score at least 117 points in this game. When scoring 117 or more points in home games, the Nets are 40-10 SU, 34-15-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last three seasons. When allowing 117 or more points in road games, the Celtics are a horrid 3-26 SU, 4-24-1 ATS for 14% in games played over the last three seasons.

Detrtoit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

Kauffman Stadium

4:10 PM EDT, May 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

The Tigers starting pitcher Mathew Boyd is pitching well and sports a 2.45 ERA on the seasons. The Royals counter with Brady Singer, who is also in decent form with a 3.96 ERA on the season. In fact, the Tigers starters are allowing a solid 1.625 earned rtuns per game.

The Under is 7-0 in Boyds last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is Under is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Under is 10-2 in Royals last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Bet the UNDER for 4-UNITS on a 3,4, and 5-UNIT scale.

MIAMI (40 - 32) at MILWAUKEE (46 - 26)

Saturday, 5/22/2021 2:00 PM

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Miami Heat plus the points.

I like making this a combination bet comprised of 80% of your normal bet size on the line and 20% on the money line.

Milwaukee is just 13-23 ATS when facing a good shooting team making >=46% of their shots this season; 5-18 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Heat is 24-12 ATS against Central division opponents over the last two seasons.

The predictive models point to the Heat scoring at least 112 points in this game. The Bucks are 17-38-2 ATS in home games when allowing 112 or more points over the last three seasons. In road games, the Heat are 36-11-1 ATS when scoring 112 or more points spanning the last three seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS in playoff games.

SEATTLE (1 - 1) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2)     

Thursday, 5/20/2021 8:00 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Minnesota plus the points

Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off an upset loss to a division rival installed as a home favorite has earned an outstanding 27-6 record good for 82% winning money line bets over the past five seasons.

From the predictive side of this matchupo, the models expect Minnesota to make at least 45% of their shots. Minnesota is an incredible 111-38 SU when they have made 45% or more of their shot attempts in games played over the last 15 seasons.

Consider betting 80% of your normal 4-UNIT bet size using the line and then add the remaining 20% using the money line.

WASHINGTON (34 - 38) at BOSTON (36 - 36)

Tuesday, 5/18/2021 9:00 PM

Eastern Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Wizards

The Boston Celtics ended the regular season in a deep slump, while the Washington Wizards soared to the finish line. Their paths will converge Tuesday night when the Celtics host the Wizards in the play-in round. The winner will land the No. 7 seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs, while the loser will get another attempt to play their way in on Thursday night.

The Celtics (36-36), who finished seventh in the Eastern Conference, need to raise their level now as they struggled down the stretch with five losses in six games and nine of their past 13. They also lost standout guard Jaylen Brown (wrist) for the rest of the season. He averaged 24.7 points per game and losing Brown's firepower hurts even more when the opponent trots out Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook as the starting backcourt.

Washington is 18-6 ATS facing teams allowing 111+ points-per-game and 2nd half of this season. Boston is 10-22 ATS in home games facing teams - scoring 111+ points-per-game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.

Washington 31-16 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season.

Memphis vs Golden State
Sunday, 5/16/2021 3:30 PM
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Golden State Warriors

The clubs enter the game with identical 38-33 records, tied for eighth in the West, meaning the winner will earn the No. 8 seed and a road game Wednesday against the seventh-seeded club (either the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland), while the loser will host 10th-place San Antonio as the No. 9 seed.

Warriors are 17-8 ATS wehen facing a team that averages at least 88 shot attempts-per-game this season; 16-7 ATS when facing teams allowing more than the NBA League average of 112 PPG this seasdon.

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after successfully covering the spread in two oir more consecutive games, and with both teams in the matchup having win percentages between 50 and 60% on the season has earned a 57-28 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Oakland vs Minnesota
Sunday, 5/16/2021 2:10 PM
CHRIS BASSITT (R) vs. KENTA MAEDA (R)
4-Unit Best Bet on Minnesota using the money line

Maeda (2-2, 5.08 ERA), the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award last season, will pitch better than his current 5.08 ERA would suggest. Home plate umpire John Libka is 6-0 and 5-1 UNDER in favor of the Home Team this season.

Betting against road teams that are starting a pitcher that did not walk a batter in his last start and is a team that is batting just 0.230 or worse over their last 20 games has earned a 103-58 record good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons.

NY YANKEES (21 - 17) at BALTIMORE (16 - 22)  
DOMINGO GERMAN (R) vs. JORGE LOPEZ (R)

5-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

This betting angle has produced an 82-37 record for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet OVER  in a game with a total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the road team has a hot starting pitcher in excellent form sporting an ERA of 2.50 or lower spanning his last three starts and is batting just 0.230 or worse over their last 15 games.  

Yankees are a solid 36-15 OVER in road games facing struggling teams outscored by their opponents by 0.5 or more runs-per-game in games played over the last 3 seasons. Yankees are 22-9 OVER in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.

The Orioles are 18-8 OVER since 2017, coming off four consecutive games scoring four or fewer runs, and averaging at least 1.1 multiple-run-innings-per-game on the season.

Take the OVER for a 5-UNIT Best Bet

Vancouver vs Edmonton
3:30 PM EST, May 15, 2021

4-UNIT Upset Alert on Vancouver using the money line

If you like a ton of action, then this NHL betting nagle is for you. The angle has produced a 403-368 winning record averaging a +111 money line wager and making the Dime Bettor over $80K in just the past five seasons. Bet on teams coming off a 3 or more goal loss and now facing an opponent that has scored three or more goals in each of their last two matches.

Edmonton is 13-22 against the money line losing 19.3 Units in home games facing teams that allow 2.85 or more goals-per-game in games played in the second half of each of the last 3 seasons.

Chicago Vs Brooklyn

1:05 PM EST, May 15, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

For the first time in 41 games, the dynamic trio of Harden, Irving, and Durant will play together for the Nets as they seek to avoid slipping to the third playoff slot. The Bucks, currently in the third seed, own the tie-breaker over the Nets. So, the strategy will be quite interesting for the later game between the Miami Heat and the Bucks. No team in the East wants to face the Heat in the first round. It is likely the Nets win this game over the Bulls and then we will see how Milwaukee chooses to play this out.

There are two scenarios we could see unfold later on Saturday. First, the Bucks playing to win and putting the pressure back to the Nets to play a full lineup Sunday against Cleveland. Second, the Bucks could elect to rest Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton against the Heat and accept the No-3 seed. Nevertheless, the Nets must win this game first, to force the chess matchup to continue with the Bucks.

The OVER is supported by an outstanding NBA betting angle that has produced a 22-5-1 OVER record for 82% winning bets spanning the last three seasons. Bet the OVER with a team coming off back-to-back games in which they achieved an elite 2.75 or higher assist-to-turnover ratio, and the gamne is lined at 234 or more points. Even with a total of at least 230 points, the record is still a strong 36-15-2 for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons.

We saw last night, the OVER, in the Warriors vs Pelicans game easily eclipse the total of 220 points. The final score was a 125-122 Warriors win without Steph Curry in the game. The news that he was not playing, sent the total plummeting from an opening price of 230 points to 220 points. Betting against these market moves has been a very successful strategy this season. So, if there is news that the big-3 are not playing does not invalidate the strength of this Total.

Brooklyn vs Milwaukee

3:30 PM EST, May 2, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

Based on this matchup, the final score may see well over 250 total points scored.

Betting the OVER with a home team where the total; is greater than 200 points that is outscoring their opponents by an average of at least 6 or more PPG on the season and facing a foe that is coming off a brutal loss of 15 or more points has earned an outstanding 7-32-1 SATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.

In the 2020 NBA season , betting the OVER in games with a total of at least 235 points has earned a remarkable 51-25 record for 67% winning bets. If the total was 240 and higher, the OVER has earned a 17-6-1 ATS for 74% winning bets this season. When the Bucks have been at home with a total of 235 or more, the OVER is a perfect 7-0 ATS. In road games and a total of at least 235 points, the OVER is 7-1 in Nets road games.

LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee

7:10 PM EST, May 1, 2021

10-Unit Play on the Los Angeles Dodgers using the money line

Seems only fitting that Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin ‘Big Red’ May is making a start on May Day. He is pitching well and all signs point to this season being his breakout one. So far, in 2021 season, he is 1-1 in four starts, with a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, including 32 strikeouts spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. He is also sporting elite stats with a career-high 13.50 strikeouts-pre-nine-innings, just 2.11 walks-per-9 innings, and a 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

May is prototype power pitcher with a 98 MPH lively fastball that he thrwos 60% of the time. He has an outstanding curve ball that is used 23% and a 92 MPH cutter the remaining 17% of his pitches thrown. His fastball has heavy sinking action and produces far more ground ball outs than the average MLB start pitcher. When batters make contact with the sinker, they are averaging a -4 degree launch angle that reflects the high number of grounders. Hi saverager spin rate on the sinker is an outstanding 2366 RPM, but his curve is his best pitch getting the most strikeouts and a very high and tight spin rate of o er 3,100 RPM.

Milwaukee’s Woodruff is an excellent starting pitcher, but has not done well facing the Dodgers. He is 0-1 in two career starts with a 6.96 ERA and 1.451 WHIP. Plus, the Brewers are scoring just 3.5 RPH and batting 0.213 in home games, and over the last seven games are scoring 3.0 RPH and batting 0.224.

Dodgers are 20-13 for 61% coming off a loss in which they scored no more than one run and are in gamne-2 or more of the current series over the last five seasons. OIn the loss both Seager and Turner were hitless. The Dodgers are 19-5 coming off a game in which Seager and Turner both went hitless in games played over the last three seasons.

Bet the Dodgers boxed with Dustin May for a top-rated 5-UNIT Best Bet.

Buffalo vs NY Rangers
6:00 PM EST, April 25, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Buffalo Sabres using the Puck Line

I am planning on bettig this game with 80% of my normal 4-UNIT best size being placed on Buffalo using the puck line and then 20% amount on the mmoney line. The +1.5 puck line is carrying about -115 vig and the money line is priced with Buffalo at a minimum of +225 money line, currently. If you shop a bit, you will find some +240 lines available.

Here is a terrific bettig angle and system that ahs earned a 42-20 SU record that has averaged a 149 underdog wager, making the $100 bettor a $2,325 profit, and a 29% ROI over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs that are coming off a win against a divisional foe and now facing a host that is coming off a blowout win of three or more goals. Buffalo is coming off a 6-4 upset win as a +260 underdog over Boston. The Rangers man-handled the Philadelphia Flyers 4-1 in their home win as -165 favorites.

Now, the shocking part of this betting angle is the fact that when these underdogs have beend priced at +200 and greater, they have gone 7-3 SU and averaged a +237 underdog wager for a 131% ROI.

Texas Rangers vs Chicago Wite Sox
2:10 PM EST, April 25, 2021
4-Unit Best Bet on the Chicago White Sox using the Run Line

Texas will send Kohei Arihara (2-1, 2.21) to the hill while the CWS will counter with Michael Kopech (1-0.1.69) in the last game of this three-game series. The CWS won the first two games of this series and will look for the sweep this afternoon. The CWS won the first game 9-7 installed as -140 home favorites with the final score doubling the total betting line of 8-runs. The CWS, behind brilliant pitching by Dallas Keuchel, won 2-1 as -163 home favorites, and the final score easily staying UNDER the total line of 8-runs.

The money line for this final game of the series opened at -210/+175 and has since moved higher to show the CWS favored at -225/+195 at WestGate and Circa. The -1.5 Run Line open with the CWS favored at -106 and has risen modestly to -115. The betting trend will see the CWS become greater favorites, so make the bet at the best available Run Line price you have access to.

Optional In-Game Betting Strategy
An in-game betting strategy is to place 60% of your normal 4-Unit amount on the CWS using the Run Line. If the game starts out with Texas off to an early lead, then get 20% on the CWS Run Line at the market price, then add the remaining 20% amount with Texas batting in the top of the next inning. For instance, if Texas gets off to a 1 or 2-0 lead OR has the lead by 1 or 2 runs, within the span of the first two innings, add 20% of your 4-UNIT bet size using the Run Line on the CWS. Then, with Texas batting in the top of the third inning, look to add the remaining 20% betting amount. With Texas batting you will get a favorable price for the last 20% Run Line bet, especially if the leadoff hitter gets on base. The worse case scenario is that the CWS get off to a fast start and never trail in the game. Still, the 60% will more than likely be a cashing ticket.

The CWS fall into a very powerful betting angle that has produced a 40-4 SU record for 91% winning bets, making the $100 bettor a $3,225 profit, and 30% ROI over the last ten seasons. Using the Run Line, the record has been 32-12 for 73% winning bets and a highly profitable 37% ROI. 
Bet on home teams in the last game of a series that are favored by -200 or more (money line is more negative value) in the first-half of the regular season, and are coming off a 1-run win.

Minnesota vs Utah
9:00 PM ET, April 24, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points.

We are on a double-digit favorite tonight in the NBA action which is rare, but always reinforced by a multitude of facts. I will detail just a few of these facts that support Utah to win this game by at least 18 points.

Minnesota is just 13-26 ATS when facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least three or more points-per-game on the season; 16-27 ATS when facing a team averaging 111 or more PPG (NBA League Average is 111 PPG) this season. Utah is an outstanding 14-3-1 ATS when facing a team with a terrible defensive presence that is allowing opponents to make 48% or more of their shots from the field in games played this season; 21-9 ATS when facing a poor team that has been poutscored by their opponents by at least six PPG on the season.

From the complete analytical research, I am expecting the Jazz to score at least 115 points have the better, and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past home games in which Utah met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to an outstanding 21-3 ATS record for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Bet the Utah Jazz as a 4-UNIT Best Bet minus the points.

NY Yankees vs Cleveland Indians
6:10 PM EST, April 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Cleveland Indians

As the month of April winds down, both of these teams are in a bit of trouble given their losing records right now. Only 7 teams since 2004, that had losing records through April managed to recover and get into the playoffs. So, this does become a critical for both teams.

While the offense has made its presence felt, all eyes likely will be on the mound Saturday when the Yankees send ace Gerrit Cole (2-1, 1.82 ERA) against reigning American League Cy Young Award recipient Shane Bieber (2-1, 2.45). The two All-Star right-handers will meet for first time since Sept. 29, with Cole and New York getting the better of that exchange. Cole struck out 13 batters and the Yankees tattooed Bieber for seven runs on nine hits -- including two homers -- in 4 2/3 innings of a 12-3 win in Game 1 of the AL wild-card series.
Giancarlo Stanton (0-for-3), Aaron Hicks (0-for-3, three strikeouts) and Rougned Odor (0-for-2) have yet to record a hit against Bieber, however all three Yankees showed their power on Friday. Stanton belted a pair of homers and Hicks and Odor also went deep in New York's 5-3 win over Cleveland.

The Yankees are 10-18 in road games and facing a host that is averaging 1.25 or more home runs-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. Bieber is an incredible 15-1 when facing teams that essentially do not even try to steal bases  averaging 0.35 or fewer stolen bases-per-game on the season.

Cleveland manager Francona is 44-22 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games as the manager of Cleveland. He is also 32-13 in home games after three or more consecutive losses.

Bet Cleveland as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

LA Angels vs Houston Astros

4:10 PM EST, April 24, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on the Angels using the money line.

In morning betting action for this matchup, we are seeing 55% of the tickets bet on the Houston Astros, but 62% of the money is being bet on the Angels. That trend will continue as the market heads towards the first pitch and is bullish on the Angels.

The Astros won the first two games of this four-game series with the Angels and without their all-star Jose Altuve. He has been cleared by MLB’s health and safety protocols and more than likely will make a start for this game. Still, his appearance in the lineup is not going to offset their starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, who is 0-2 with a horrid 10.57 ERA on the season.

Odorizzi took his second loss in as many appearances on Sunday, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in a 7-2 setback against the Seattle Mariners. That game marked the longest outing, most pitches (89) and most strikeouts for Odorizzi since Sept. 24, 2019. That start against the Detroit Tigers was his last victory.

Batters are getting hard-hit balls 54% of plate appearances that average an exit velocity of 90.4 MPH against Odorizzi. He throws fast ball 59%, then adds a splitter for 19%, slider 11%, and occasionally a cutter and curve ball. He throws 92 MPH with this fastball, but his location has been quite poor and when that or any of his pitches are elevated in the strike zone, the ball gets hit hard.

For the Angels, Griffin Canning will b eon the hill and he is a vastly better starting pitcher than Odorizzi. Canning has a line drive percentage of 20% and an excellent whiff percentage of 34%. Odorizzi has a line dirve rate of 37% and a decent whiff percentage of 29%.

I think you will see Canning pitch more innings than Odorizzi and that the Angels will have at least one multiple-run ining in this game. Since 2016, when the Angels have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned an outstanding 176-34 moey line record good for 84% winning bets and a fantastic 60% ROI, In games where they were road underdogs and met these measures has produced a 46-12 record for 79% winning bets and a 90% ROI.

Bet the Angels as a 5-Unit Best Bet

Toronto vs New York
1:00 PM EST, April 24, 2021

4-UNIT best Bet on the Toronto Raptors plus the points or the money line.

The betting line is at pick-em for the game at Madison Square Garden, so simply bet either the line or the money line with the lowest vig.  Shop around and you will get a line that is not paying more than -110 vig.

Toronto has suddenly won four consecutive games and are playing at a high level and facing a New York Knicks team that has been white hot, but vulnerable to regression in this matchup.

In this matchup, I think you will see Toronto score at least 110 points and make more 3-pointers than the Knicks. In past road games in which Toronto met or exceeded these measures has seen them go on to earn an outstanding 55-8 SU, and 49-13-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past seasons.

Bet the Toronto Raptors as a 4-Unit best Bet

New Jersey vs Pittsburgh
12:38 PM EST, April 24, 2021
4-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER in this match.

The following betting angle has produced a 33-9 UNDER reord good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. The angle requires us to be the UNDER with a road team that has allowed four or more goals in two consecutive games and is now facing an opponent that scored five or more goals in two consecutive games.

New Jersey has played many games and will be playing their eighth game in thepast 14 days today. New Jersey is 95-49 UNDER making the $100 bettor a profit of $3,720 when playing their eighth game in the past 14 days.

Pittsburgh is 11-3 UNDER in a home match and coming off of win of two or more goals to a divcisional rival in matches played over the past two seasons.

Bet the UNDER in this matchup for a 4-unit Best Bet

Utah vs the LA Lakers

10:00 PM EST, April 19, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER the posted total

Here are a few quick hitter supporting the UNDER. Lakers ar e16-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 25-12 UNDER when playing against a team ytjhat is scoring at or above the league average of 111 points-per-game; 12-4 UNDER when facing solid rebounding teams that are averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents this season.

Betting the UNDER with road teams involved in a game lined between 210 and 219.5 points, playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, and revenging a road loss to the current opponent has earned a 62-30-2 record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Take the UNDER

Atlanta vs Chicago
7:08 PM EST, April 18, 2021

5-UNIT MLB Best Bet

The 5-Unit Best Bet is the highest graded BET that Ryan bets with his own money, expect for the Double 5-UNIT or 10-UNIT Bet, that is reserved for fewer than 10 times in a calendar year spanning all sports.  So, this 5-UNIT is quite strong and does represent a terrifica betting opportunity. Keep in mind, that any of these plays can lose. I have 26 years of experience and wisdom, and the focus needs to be squarely on season-long profits – and not the results of just one day.

The Cubs franchise record for consecutive games scoring five or fewer runs is 23 straight set by the anemic 1973 team. The 2021 Cubs had started off with 13 straight games not scoring more than five runs. On Saturday, they tagged the ball in the a big way scoring 13 runs in their win over the Braves. The Cubs are 5-0 when scoring four or more runs in 2021 and just 1-8 when scoring three or fewer runs.

Bryce Wilson will be the Braves starter. He is 23 years-old and did nor fair well in his first start against the Braves allowing 6 runs, 4 earned runs (8.31 ERA) and a 1.617 WHIP in just 4 1/3 innings of work. The Cubs will hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks, who has posted a 2.91 ERA and 1.569 WHIp in four career starts against the Braves.

From the machine learning applications, Hendricks is projected to throw a quality start today by completing at least 6 innings and allowing 3 or fewer runs, and will complete more innings than Wilson. In past games in which the Cubs matched or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 41-10 81% winning record in home games played over the last three seasons.

Vegas vs Anaheim
4:08 PM EST, April 18, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER

Betting the UNDER with a road team, like Vegas, that is coming off three consecutive road wins, has a winning record on the season, and is now playing a host with a losing record has seen the UNDER earn a 48-24-5 record good for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Anaheim is 16-8 UNDER when facing an offensive team that averages at least 29 shots-on-goal this season. They are also 10-3 UNDER after scoring just one goal in their previous game thi season.

New Orleans ve NY Knicks

1:00 PM EST, April 17, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points.

Currently, the betting line has the Pelicans installed as a 1-point underdogs and there is positively no value in betting the money line, unless you are getting even-money or as in the case at Pinnacle (+102). So, if unless you are getting +100 or better money, stick with the 1-point spread.

Here is a great NBA Betting system that has earned a 92-56-2 ATS record over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that lost the matchup to the current opponent, and is coming off two consecutive upset losses installed as favorites. Filtering only games that are lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em returns a 28-16 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.

St. Louis vs Philadelphia
1:05 PM EST, April 18, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Phillies using the momney line

First, the Philadelphia Phillies could be without star outfielder Bryce Harper again Sunday when they face the visiting St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber match of a three-game series. Harper is listed as day-to-day after being held out of Saturday's contest with soreness in his lower back, and manager Joe Girardi said the Phillies are going to be cautious. Harper played through back soreness and struggled at the plate during the final month of last season. However, he was not a huge contributor in the offense so far this season. For now, having him resting and getting healthier is paramount, but it actually will maek the Phillies offense more efficient. Harper is batting .238 with two home runs and six RBIs in 13 games for the Phillies, who have lost six of eight since opening the season with a 5-1 mark.

The Phillies ace Aaron Nola will be on the hill for this game, who has pitched well in his first three outings but is still seeking his first victory. The 27-year-old allowed three runs with seven strikeouts over five frames in last Tuesday's 4-0 loss to the New York Mets.

The Phillies will have new call-up Mickey Moniak in the lineup Sunday in center field. Moniak is replacing Adam Haseley, who left the team on Wednesday for personal reasons and with Harper out, would make sense for the depth of the roster.

The Cardinals are 20-32 after a win by four or more runs in games played over the last three seasons. They are 9-21 after a win of four or more points and having scored 9 or more runs in games played over the last three seasons.

St. Louis vs Philadelphia
3:05 PM EST, April 17, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line

The anemic Phillies offense finally exploded for a 6-run second inning on their way to a dominating 9-2 win over the Cardinals Friday. Jean Segura had three hits while Andrew McCutchen added two hits and three RBIs for the Phillies, who snapped a three-game losing streak. Bryce Harper also drove in two runs.

Both teams are 6-6 on the season, but the Phillies will be looing to win their seventh game in eight home games this season. The Phillies will hand the ball to left-hander Matt Moore, who will be making his third start of the season. He signed a one-year, $3 million free-agent deal after pitching last year in Japan. Moore has allowed 13 hits and seven runs in 8 1/3 innings while striking out nine and walking four. He is 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA in three appearances, including two starts, in his career against the Cardinals.

St. Louis will turn to left-hander Kwang Hyun Kim for his season debut. He struggled in spring training, compiling a 16.20 ERA in five innings. He has been impacted by back spasms during Spring training and is highly suspect for this game today.

The Cardinals are 9-18 in games with a total between 8.5 and 10 runs in games played over the last two seasons. The Phillies bullpen has more effective than expected and have posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in seven home games spanning 26 innings of work. The bullpen record is a perfect 4-0, which measn the Phillies came from behind tpo win those four games. The unit has a 1.15 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in five day games spanning 17.3 innings of work this season.

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM EST, April 17, 2021

4-unit Best Bet on the Atlanta Braves using the money line.

The Braves overcame a 1-0 second-iunning deficit to defeat the Cubs 5-2 at Wrigley Field, Friday. The Braves scored three runs in the fourth inning providing enough run support for reliever Josh Tomlin to earn the win. Tomlin was the fourth reliever of the game in which the Braves used a total of 6 pitchers including starter Kyle Wright.

Yesterday’s heavy use of pitching by the Braves places trhem into an excellent situational betting strategy for today’s game. Betting on road favorites, that are coming off a road win that was played in the day-time, has earned a solid 177-98 record for 64.4% winning bets, has made the $100 bettor $3,743 since 2018 for a 10.1% ROI. Plus, if our road favorite had used 6 or more pitchers in that previous game, their record soars to a highly profitable 27-14 SU for 73% winning bets, making the $100 bettor 1,743 in profits since 2018, and a 23.5% ROI.

Bet the Atlanta Braves using the money line.

Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees

1:05 PM EST, April 17, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Rays using the money line.

The Rays scored two in the top of the first inning and never trailed in their 8-2 drubbing of the Yankees in Friday’s game in the Bronx. Here are a few team angles supporting the Rauys today. The Rays are 10-3 using the ML when facing a team that is allowing 4.4 or more runs-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. The Rays are 10-3 when facing AL teams that covert 75% or more of their savwe opportunities in games played over the last two seasons. The Yankees are 31-32, but have lost 14.5 units-per-unit wagered when facing a team whose bullpen averages at least 3.1 or more innings-per-game in games played over the last two seasons.

The Rays are 24-7 in games where the monmey line is between a -125 favorite and a 125 dog in games played over the last two seasons and 15-3 in this sitruation when facing a divisional foe.

Take the Rays using the money line.

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh

7:08 PM EST, April 15, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Flyers using the money line

This betting system has earned a 133-100 record for 56% winners good for 57% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system has averaged a +145 dog helping to make the $100 bettor a profit of $6,376 over 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team using the money line that has allowed three or more goals in two consecutive matches and is facing an opponent that has scored four or more goal sin each of their last four matches.

Take the Philadelphia Flyers using the money line.

Baylor vs Gonzaga
NCAA 2021 National Championship Game

9:00 PM EST, April 5, 2021

4% Best bet UNDER the posted total of 159 points.

How in the world is this Championship Game even come close to matching the drama of the UCLA vs Gonzaga semifinal game, which is at the top of the All-Time greatest games in any sport. I do see this game being a physical war between these two juggernaut programs, who were ranked 1 and 2 in the nation throughout the season.

Betting on the UNDER in neutral court settings with a total between 150.5 and 160 points in a matchup where the one team, Gonzaga, has scored 75 or more points in at least two consecutive games and now facing an opponent, Baylor, who is coming off a game in which they scored at least 40 or more points in the first-half of their last game has earned a solid 110-57-1 UNDER record for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the ‘other’ team, Baylor, has scored 40 or more in two consecutive first-halves, the record moves up to 70% winning bets.

St. Louis vs Cincinnati
1:10 PM EST, April 4, 2021

4% best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds using the money line.

It is only two games into the regular season, but this historic rivalry got into the form seen in the hot days of summer. The Reds evened the series with a 9-6 win on Saturday, but not before St. Louis reliever Jake Woodford hit Nick Castellanos with a 92-mph fastball in the fourth inning.

After staring at the mound, Castellanos took his base and eventually scored on a wild pitch, staring, and flexing at Woodford after sliding in under his tag. Both dugouts emptied and Castellanos was ejected for the first time in his career, but no punches were thrown, and order was restored after a few minutes of ballroom dancing.

The betting flows are throwing up a red flag for backers of the Cardinals. 56% of the tickets and 84% of the money is a certain sign of the betting community betting with irrational exuberance.  

From the machine learning tools, the Reds are 43-15 for 74% winning bets in home games and having at least two multiple-run-innings in games played over the last three seasons.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM EST, April 2, 2021
4% Best bet on the Dodgers using the Run Line

We lost with the -1.5 Run Line, but the machine learning applications come right back on the Dodgers in this spot tonight.

Betting on teams that made the playoffs last season and facing a host that was not in the playoffs last season, and the host sports a win percentage of 65% or higher has earned a 97-47 record using the Run Line and producing a 41% ROI over the last ten seasons.

Ironically, Bauer is 0-3 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP, but has not faced them since the 2017 season.

The Dodgers lost their opening day road game 8-5 to the Rockies yesterday. Over the past three seasons, the Dodgers are 7-1 SU and on the Run Line coming off a loss in which the opponent scored 8 or more runs, and installed in the current games as a -175 or greater favorite.

Dallas vs Nashville
8:00 PM EST, April 1, 2021
4% Best Bet on Nashville using the money line

Betting on home underdogs of +200 or less using the money line, are coming off two games that resulted in UNDER bet wins, and with the two teams averaging 2.5 to 2.99 goals-per-game spanning the last five seasons.

Dallas is just 3-15 facing excellent power-play scoring teams that score of 19% or more of their man-advantage situations this season.

Philadelphia vs Cleveland
7:00 PM EST, April 1, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 76ers -10 points

The 76ers are tied on top of the Eastern Conference standings with the Brooklyn Nets. They have lost 3 consecutive games on two occasions this season and will avert a third such occurrence tonight. They are ending their 6-game road trip and will look to return home with the possibility of Joel Embiid being able to return to the lineup.

Cleveland is 7-19 ATS when facing a winning record team this season. The 76ers are an excellent rebounding team. Cleveland is just 11-30 ATS when facing a team that is outrebounding their opponents by an average 3 or more per game. 76ers head coach Doc Rivers is 53-27 ATS for 67% winning bets in his career following a game in which his team had been outrebounded by 15 or more boards.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 66-9 SU and 57-17-1 ATS for 77% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points (league scoring average the last three seasons) and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than their opponent spanning the last three seasons.

LA Dodgers at the Colorado Rockies
4:10 PM EST, April 1, 2021
4% Best Bet on the LA Dodgers using the -1.5 Run Line

This is a very logical bet to be making on opening day. Over the last 15 seasons had you bet on the defending World Series Champion using the run line when favored between -175 and -200., you would have profited and produced a solid 15% ROI. The Dodgers are a juggernaut and added starting pitcher Trevor Bauer at $40 million. They were first in MLB with a 136-run differential in last season’s 60-game sprint and was more than half of their 273 run differential in 2019.

At DraftKings they are lined with a 102.5 wins total and if you are interested in backing the Dodgers, you can get it cheaper at BetMGM, who are offering it at 101.5 wins. I cannot imagine this team with the depth and talent in the starting lineup losing more than 60 games and are more likely to win 110 or more games in the 2021 season.

The Dodgers are 43-13 in day games over the last three seasons and starting pitcher Kershaw is 79-27 in day games for his career.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Opening Day, April 1, 2021

4% Best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper was the only certainty in manager’s Girardi’s opening day lineup when the Grapefruit League started play this season. Catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have hit out of the second hole for the Phillies in Grapefruit League games.  Hoskins is the logical choice to bat second with Realmuto batting cleanup primarily because of his discipline at the plate. Despite batting just 0.245 compared to  Realmuto’s .266 during the 60-game 2020 sprint season, Hoskins, who led the National League with 119 walks in ’19 season, had a higher on-base percentage last year (.384 to .349) because his walk rate was nearly twice that of Realmuto’s (15.7 to 8.2%).

So, with Andrew McCutchen fully recovered from his 2019 ALC injury and looking great in Grapefruit League games, in the lead-off spot, Harper will have far more betters on base when he comes up to the plate and not just in the first inning. CF Adam Haseley has made the roster and will be batting 8th, but has the talent to help turn the lineup over, which again will increase the chances for Harper to drive in runs with men on base. This is a season-long theme, of course, but one that I do think you will see unfold today.

The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the hill for Opening Day. He went 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA and solid 4.17 SO-BB ratio. He had 96 strikeouts in his 10 starts for a 9.6 SO-per-star average, which is quite good. In fact, he led the team with a 12.2 SO-per-nine innings ratio and ranked high in all of MLB. Look for the Phillies to win their home opener.

Philadelphia vs Denver
9:00 PM EST, March 30, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers

This is a MONEY LINE Betting System that has posted a losing record of 103-182 for 36% winning money line bets, but has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,777 over the last 5 seasons.
The system has averaged a +245 underdog wager.

Bet on road underdogs using the money line that is facing a host, who is outscoring their opponents by a minimum of 3 PPG, and are coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored.

If the DOG covered the spread, they the game straight-up 54% of the time.

Let me know if you have any questions and TY for putting it together.

So, I recommend betting this game using 80% of your normal 4% bet size on the spread and then the 20% remaining bet on the money line.

76ers are 18-5-1 ATS when facing a solid shooting team making at least 46.5% of their shots in game splayed this season. They are also 19-10-2 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 110 or more PPG this season. Since February 21, the 76ers are 11-1 in this role.

USC vs Gonzaga
Elite-8 NCAA 2021
4% Best Bet on USC +8.5 points

I am betting Houston at +500 to win the Championship. I also betting USC at +1400 to win the Championship as an alternative sprinkle of USC using the money line in this game. Far more bang for the buck doing it this way.

Following game number 15 of the regular season, betting on Neutral court UNDERDOGS that are good defensive teams allowing 63-67 PPG and now facing an elite offensive team scoring at least 77 PPG and coming off a win by 15 or more points has earned a 24-5 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Cleveland vs Utah

9:00 PM EST, March 29, 2021

4% best bet on the Cleveland Cavs +15.5 points

Betting on double-digit underdogs, after game number 41, in a matchup of the tale of two teams, with the favorite having outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG, and the underdog being outscored by 7 or more PPG, has earned a highly profitable 63-45-2 ATS for 58.3% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 21-9 ATS for 75% last five seasons. 

Atlanta vs Denver

9:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Atlanta Hawks +4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. 

I plan to bet this game on the Hawks with 85% of my 4% bet size on the line and then 15% of my 4% bet size on the money line.  

These two teams last played in Atlanta, who defeated Denver 123-115 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Denver is 2-10 ATS revenging a road loss this season. They are also just 3-12 ATS in home games after scoring 100 or more points in back-to-back games spanning the past two seasons. 

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Atlanta is 47-15 and 46-14- 2 ATS for 77% winning bets, in road games, scoring 111 or more points, and had previously defeated the opponent at home.

Florida State vs Michigan
Sweet 16, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
5:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on Florida State +2 points or the money line +115 or higher.

I will be playing this bet using the money line and it will be graded on the site as a money line play. The line has drifted to the 2-point price level and if you believe FSU is going to win, then the money line offers better value at +115. If the money line is at +110, for instance, then consider a combination wager of FSU +1.5/+2 points for 50% of your normal 4% bet amount and then another 50% betting the money line at +110.

In the NCAA Tournament action dating back to the 2009 season (2010 March Madness), betting on underdogs of four or fewer points, that have averaged 72 or fewer possessions-per-game, have earned a 138-88-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. This system has earned the $100 bettor a profit of $4,332 or a highly profitable 18% return-on-investment (ROI). So far in the NCAA Tournament, this system has done well with a 9-5 ATS for 64% winning bets and a nice 24.2 % ROI.

FSU is 21-5-1 ATS when dressed as an underdog of six or fewer points dating back to the 2005 season. FSU head coach Hamilton relishes this underdog role sporting a 12-3 ATS record playing on neutral courts as an underdog of three or fewer points and 19-4 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points.

Creighton vs Gonzaga
Sweet 16 Hinkle Field House
2:10 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet OVER the posted total of 158 points.

We all have seen many more UNDER results this NCAA Tournament, and with the UNDER a perfect 4-0 UNDER yesterday. These UNDERS combined for going under their respective totals by 78 points in total and is easily above the highest UNDER total for a sweet 16 round since 2010, which occurred in the 2014 tournament and a total of 38 points. For this matchup, the OVER is the play based on my research and machine learning applications.

The line and total imply a Gonzaga 86-73 win today over Creighton. The ML apps underscore Gonzaga’s points total of 86 or more points. Gonzaga has an 82% probability of scoring 86 or more points. In past games, Creighton is 7-0 OVER when they have allowed 87 or more points spanning the last three seasons.  Gonzaga is 30-3 OVER when both they and their opponent have scored 75 or more points spanning the last three seasons. Gonzaga is 75-2 and 55-15 OVER in games scoring 81 or more points spanning the last five seasons and teams in the NCAA Tournament that have scored 87 or more points, are 52-4 and 50-6 OVER spanning the last six NCAA Tournaments.

Syracuse vs Houston

Sweet 16 Round

Hinkle Fieldhouse

9:55 PM EST, March 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on Syracuse +6.5 points

I like a red-hot Syracuse team that once again is proving the nay-sayers wrong. Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches All-Time and has the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense holding their first two opponents to less than 36% shooting.  Even though, Houston has had many days to prepare for this defense, facing it in a LIVE game is far more different than studying game films. 

Houston is certainly an elite team, but in order to attack a 2-3 zone, an offense needs a strong post presence. Houston does not have that strong scoring threat in the post, and I see Syracuse doing a great job contesting every 3-point shot attempt. 

Boeheim is 10-1 ATS when his teams have been seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 1-9 ATS in games away from home following a low-scoring game in which 125 or fewer points were scored spanning the last three seasons. 

Portland vs Orlando
8:00 ET, March 26, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Portland Trailblazers

Let’s start with a highly profitable betting system that supports making a bet on Portland. The system has earned a 78-20 SU record and 65-31-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites of 3.5 or more points that are coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed 100 or more points and are now facing a host that is coming off a win of three or fewer points. Plus, if the host has lost 65% or more of their games, then the record improves to 25-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

The last time Orlando played Portland ended with a 106-97 road and ATS loss on February 9. Orlando is just 10-31 ATS revenging a road loss in games played over the last two seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Portland is a highly profitable 33-9 SU and 31-9-2 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assists-to-turnover ratio in road games played over the last five seasons.

Dallas vs Minnesota
8:00 PM EST, March 24, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Dallas Mavericks –8 points

Dallas is beginning to look like the playoff-bound team I thought they would be before the season started. Doncic is averaging career-highs scoring 29 PPG and adding 9.2 assists-per-game. However, it has been their improved defense recently that has driven to their 22-19 record.

Minnesota is 35-64 ATS when facing an opponent that is averaging at least 18 or more 3-point shot attempts-per-game over the last two seasons and the same record facing opponents that make at least six 3-point shots-per-game.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a monster win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 46-19-2 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons, is 7-3 in the 2020 season, and has gone 4-1 ATS in March.

Philadelphia vs Golden State
10:00 PM EST, March 23, 2021
4% Best bet on the 76ers -4 points

Although Stephen Curry and his brother, Seth, have each missed the passed two games and are considered questionable to play Wednesday, they are on the schedule to go head-to-head Tuesday night for the 14th time in their NBA careers when the Golden State Warriors host the Philadelphia 76ers.

Meanwhile, big men James Wiseman and Joel Embiid will have to wait on their first duel. However, the 76ers have played very well without Embiid in the lineup and is projected to return to action next week.

The 76ers are coming off a 1-point POT road win against the New York Knicks. They are installed as favorites in this matchup. Betting on favorites coming off a road overtime win and now are installed as road favorite have earned a solid 31-15-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the road favorite, which is the 765ers, has won 60% or more of their games, the record soars to 18-7 for 72% winning bets.

Colorado vs Arizona
10:00 PM EST, March 23, 2021
8-UNIT best Bet on the Arizona Coyotes using the +1.5 Puck-Line

Some quick hitters as Arizona is 24-16 ATS (+42.5 Units) when playing against a good team that has won between 60% to 75% of their games in the current season spanning the last three seasons. They are also 17-9 ATS when play a game in the first half of the regular season against a foe that has won between 60 to 75% of their games in the current season over the last three seasons. Arizona is 19-7 off a home loss spanning the last two seasons.

Oklahoma vs Gonzaga
2:40 PM EST, March 22, 2021
NCAA Round-2, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best bet on Gonzaga –14 points

Betting on neutral court favorites in a matchup involving the favorite being an elite offense averaging 77 or more PPG and are coming off two consecutive games scoring 85 or more points, and facing an average D-1 defense that is allowing between 67 and 75 PPG has earned a highly profitable 74-32 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Gonzaga is 27-0, 13-12 ATS, and is averaging 92.3 PPG, 45.7 PPG in the first half, and making 55% of their shot attempts. Despite playing at the 7th-fastest pace of play in the nation, their defense holds up extremely well and allows just 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 41.4% shooting.

Oklahoma is 16-10 SU, 13-12 ATS, and average 74.7 PPG, 34.2 PPG in the first half, and shooting a below average 44% from the field. Their defense has allowed 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 42% opponent shooting. However, over their last five games, they have regressed and average 70.6 PPG, 29.4 PPF in the first half, and make 43% of their shots. On the defensive side, they have allowed 71.6 PPG, 33.6 first half PPG, and allowed 45% shooting over their last five games.  So, Gonzaga is playing well, and may not have even peeked yet, and now facing an Oklahoma team that is struggling a bit at both ends of the court.

Gonzaga has shot 50% or better from the field in all but TWO of their 27 games and both of those games they shot 49.2% from the field. They have outscored their opponents by 23.7 PPG, and have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.543. They also have the 21st-best defense assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.755. Oklahoma ranks 128th with a 0.929 opponent assist-to-turnover. So, how in the world is Oklahoma going to slow Gonzaga’s constant offensive attack? I do not think they will or can even on their best day.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Gonzaga is expected to score at least 87 points. When Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points, they are 45-26-1 ATS, and when scoring 87 or more points, they are 41-15-1 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Oregon State vs Oklahoma State
NCAA Second Round, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
9:40 PM EST, March 21, 2021
4% Best bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys – 6 points

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS since the 15-game of this season facing teams that were averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. Oregon State is a money-burning 7-22 ATS coming off a four or more-game win streak spanning the last ten seasons. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS on neutral courts and having won five or more of their last six games.

From the machine learning applications, we are expecting Oklahoma State to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field and to attempt 57 to 64 shots. They are 9-1 ATS when they have met these performance measures.

Oral Roberts vs Florida
7:45 PM EST, March 21, 2021
8-UNIT best bet on the Florida Gators

Oral Roberts pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Tournament history in their win over Ohio State. The following betting system reveals how difficult it will be for them to pull off another giant-killing upset win. This system has earned a 44-15-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet on neutral court favorites that are from a Major D-1 Conference and facing a team that is from a Mid-Major Conference and that is also playing their second neutral court game in the past three days.

A second betting system has earned a 51-19 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a team that is on a four or more-game win streak and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida head coach White is 7-0 ATS when facing an opponent that has been getting outrebounded by four or more rebounds-per-game. He is also 13-3-1 SATS away from Gainesville when having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Wisconsin vs Baylor
2:40 PM EST, March 21, 2021

4% best bet on Wisconsin +6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I will be betting this game with 85% of my 4% bet size using the spread and the remaining 15% on the money line. I had thought that UNC would advance to this game against Baylor, but Wisconsin and their strong 3-point shooting present far more problems for Baylor.

Wisconsin’s Davison had 29 points in the 85-62 route of UNC. They had only seven turnovers and strong ball-handling is a definite requirement in order to take down Baylor. Given that the fourth seed Purdue and two seed Ohio State both lost, the winner of this game will have the easiest remaining schedule to win the region and advance to the Final-Four.

Betting on neutral court underdogs that are coming off a win of 15 or more-points, have a solid defense allowing 67 or fewer PPG, and are now facing an excellent offensive team averaging 75 or more PPG has earned a 25-5 ATS record over the last five seasons.

In the NCAA Tournament teams that are allowing 67 or fewer PPG and facing an opponent that is averaging 75 or more PPG have earned a 176-124 ATS record for 59% winning bets.

Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois
12:10 PM EST, March 21, 2021
Round 2 NCAA Tournament, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best bet on Illinois –7 points

Betting on neutral court favorites that are coming off a 20-point or more blowout win and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a 37-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Illinois has tremendous balance and bench strength that will wear down the Loyola team over the course of the game, especially the second half of this matchup. Illinois overwhelmed Drexel with a two-man punch of All-Big Ten center Kofi Cockburn and All-American Ayo Dosunmu. Cockburn had 18 points, including a run of eight in a row, and Dosunmu awakened from a slow start to chip in 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals in the first-round victory.

Illinois has been near-perfect on the offensive end during their recent surge and are making the correct ball screen reads and as a result all five players are getting high-percentage looks. They share the ball, and you can see the fun and energy they bring to the court. Four of the five Illini starters scored in double-digits in the win over Drexel.

Illinois took only seven 3-point shots among the total of 63 shot attempts against Drexel. You can bet they will look to pound the paint and take as many mid-range jumpers as possible. They will also look to speed up the game right from the opening tip and take Loyola out of their plodding pace that ranks 346th nationally. Illinois has the fifth most difficult schedule and are currently 7th in positive team momentum. Loyola had the 140th toughest schedule and rank 284th in momentum. In fact, Loyola’s momentum has regressed modestly.

Illinois has a major advantage of the offensive glass and will have a big edge in second-chance scores. They rank 5th nationally in second-chance scoring and I just do not see how Loyola will be able to withstand the Illini’s offensive efficiency.

Illinois head coach Underwood is a highly profitable 35-15 ATS when facing solid ball-handling teams that are averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

Abilene Christian vs Texas
NCAA First Round, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
9:50 PM EST, March 20, 2021

5% or 10-Star Best Bet on Texas – 8.5 points

Coming off a terrible day on Friday going 0-3 ATS with 8-UNIT Best Bets, but at least winning Loyola as a 6-UNIT winning bet. UCLA won Thursday as a 8-UNIT Best Bet bring the 2-day record to 1-3 with 8-UNIT and 1-0 with 6-UNIT Best Bets. I mention this only to remind all of us, including myself, that this is a grinding marathon for 365-days. I am expecting to post my sixth consecutive profitable NCAA Tournament, but do NOT increase your bet size. Stay disciplined and maintain the long-term view to profitability that has served me quite well for 26 years.

Betting on favorites in a matchup of similar offenses that are averaging 74 to 79 PPG, after the 15th game of the regular season including all Tournament action, and with the dog coming off three straight double-digit wins has earned a 40-23-2 ATS record for 63.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets and has won nine straight ATS.

Texas has big-time advantages across the board and at both ends of the court. Abilene Christian ranks 319th in strength of schedule and this is a sizable jump in competition taking on a Texas squad that has been far more consistent, and plays better away from Austin. Make no mistake about it, Texas will look to pressure every ball-handler looking to force turnovers and get quick fast-break scores. Texas ranks 56th in the nation in points off of steals and 40th in defensive field goal attempt rate.

Grand Canyon vs Iowa

NCAA First Round, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN

6:25 PM EST, March 20, 2021

4% Best Bet on Iowa – 14.5 points. 

Iowa is 27-11-1 ATS facing defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game over the last two seasons. Iowa is 13-3 ATS installed as a double-digit favorite spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. Iowa is 9-1 ATS coming off a game allowing 45 or more points in the first half of their last game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-1 ATS adfter a double-digit loss over the last two seasons. Iowa Head coach McCaffery is 44-27 ATS as a double-digit favorite

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Iowa is 20-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. 

The team is led by super-stud Luc Garza and is on eof the five starters that returned from last season. They have incredible chemistry and team leadership and this season was dedicated to winning the NCAA Championship. They rank best ball-handling team in the nation with an incredible 2.07 assists-to-turnover ratio. 

Iona vs Alabama
4:00 PM EST, March 21, 2021
NCAA First Round, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
4% OVER the posted total of 147 points

This total opened at 143 points and has seen smart money hitting the OVER lifting the market price to a current 147-points. My machine learning applications continue to ‘love’ the OVER with a high probability of both teasm socring 75 or more points and a final tally of about 160 points.

One way to play this this total is to place 50% of your normal 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look to add 25% more at 143 and the last 25% at 138.5 points. If both teams start out fast, you may not get the chance to add the two parts. However, as we have seen in the first day’s action, the in-game pricing is extremely fast and volatile. So, let that volatility work for you in this game.

Alabama is 41-26 OVER when installed as a favorite in games played over the last three seasons and 23-11-1 ATS in non-conference games played over the last three seasons. Alabama head coach Oats is 28-14-1 ATS when playing just the second game spanning the past week; 32-14 ATS when playing against an opponent that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and only in games played after the 15th game of the regular season.

Eastern Washington vs Kansas
NCAA RD-1, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indiapolis, IN
4% Best Bet on Eastern Washington +10.5 points.

1:15 PM EST, March 20, 2021

The 70-point level is goping to the key for this game and if EWU is going to pull-off an Oral Roberts-like upset over the 3-seed Kansas Jayhawks. The machine learning applications predict a high probability that EWU is going to score more than 70 points. EWU is 13-3 ATS when scoring 70 or more points this season. They are a losing record when not scoring more than 70 points.

Kansas was 18-0 SU when holding an opponent to fewer than 70 points and just 2-8 when allowing 70 or more points this season.

EWU center Tanner Groves has the opportunity for a huge game. They rank 12th nationally in points scored by the center at 28% of total points. Kansas forward David McCormack has been upgraded to probable for this game due to the COVID Quarantine protocol. Still, he is going to have his hands full trying to contain Groves and no one has any clue how much fatigue will impact McCormack.

The biggest problem for the KU defense will be leaving the perimeter open when Groves gets the ball in the box. EWU guards accounted for a modest portion of the scoring, BUT the team has shot 35% from beyomd the arc. Big Sky Conference preseason Player-of-the-Year Jacob Davison, who doesn’t even start, hit 37% from behind the arc and went 9-18 in his last game. EWU knows how to spread the floor and the defense and take the best shot the defense provides them.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that EWU is 11-2 ATS when making at least 33% of their 3-point shots in games played over the last two seasons. They are projected to make at least 80% of their free throw attempts and when doing so are 20-7 ATS in games played over the last three seasons.

North Texas vs Purdue
NCAA Tournament, First Round, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
4:00 PM EST, March 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on Purdue -7 points

Let us start with a solid and consistent monmey-making betting system that has earned a 62-23 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system requires a bet be made on favorites that are facing an opponent on a four or more-game win streak and is a 13 through 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue is a solid rebounding team that has averaged 37.6 rebounds-per-game and have outrebounded opponents by 6.2 per-game on the season. Note that North Texas is a money-losing 21-44 ATS away from home and facing an opponent that is outrebounding their opponent by an average of 5 or more rebounds-per-game.

Purdue’s head coach is 13-3 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. He is also 18-6 ATS when facing an opponent that averages a below average 15 free-throws-per-game.

We learning from the machine learning applications, that Purdue is 13-3 ATS when having four or more offensive boards-per-game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The apps are predicting that North Texas will have fewer than 62 points. North Texas is just 35-60 ATS when scoring 62 or fewer points.

Oregon State vs Tennessee
NCAA Tournament - First Round
Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
4:30 PM EST, March 19, 2021
4% Best Bet on Tennessee -8.5 points.

I certainly do not see any traditional upset here with a 12 vs 5 matchup in the first round. To start, OSU head coach Barnes is a terrible 7-22 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 51 and 60% and 8-24 ATS away from home and facing an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game after the 15th game of the regular season including conference and NCAA, NIT Tournaments.

Based on my opponent-adjusted rankings, UT is the 15th-best and OSU is the 75th-best team in the nation. UT has had a much-better resum based on overall record quality and are a superior team on both ends of the court. UT ranks 25 with a 45.9% opponent effective FG percentage. OSU is just not a good shooting team and is a main reason they play a slower style of game. They do not have the personnel to get involved into a track meet with UT. OSU ranks 230th with a 48.7% offensive effective FG percentage.

From the machine learning applications we know that UT is 151-50-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 75 or more points in all games played over the last 15 seasons.

Utah State vs Texas Tech
Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament
1:45 PM EST, March 19, 2021

Utah State is the 11-seed going up against a strong Texas Tech 6-seed in this first-round matchup taking place at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana. Utah State has the make-up to win this game and send Texas Tech home.

Both teams playing slower than the average D-1 pace of play. UST averages 69.2 possessions-per-40-minutes and TTU averages an even slower pace averaging 66.9 possessions. UST is playing their best games entering the tournament while TTU has been on a minor regression. UST will look to score from the paint and at the rim as often as possible. They are an excellent passing team and will always make the extra pass to get the highest percentage shot. Their excellent ball movement is going to be tough for TTU defense to contain despite ranking in the top-20 of most defensive efficiency measures. UST is also quite good at scoring on second-chance opportunities. So, the more offensive boards they get and the greater the margin of offensive boards compared to TTU, the better their chances of winning this game.

TTU is just 2-11 ATS when facing teams called for fewer than 17 fouls-per-game this season and 10-20 ATS when facing strong defenses that are allowing 42% or lower shooting over the last two seasons. UST is 9-2 ATS following two consecutive games allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half.  TTU head Coach Beard is 14-26 ATS off a loss to a conference foe and 4-15 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference foe.

Bet 4% on the Utah State Aggies and sprinkle the money line with a bit extra and not greater than a 1% amount. 

UCLA vs Michigan State
First Four NCAA Tournament
9:57 PM EST, March 18, 2021

4% Best bet on UCLA + 2 points.

The sentiment expectaions are highly overvalued and the betting public is betting MSU with irraytional exhuberance. So, this is a contrarian bet, going against the 77% or more of the bets seeing action on MSU. Currently, 77% of the bets made are on MSU, but just 52% of the money.

On my live shows this week, which can found at Predictive Playbook on YouTube, I had suggested that MSU should have been seeded and that Syracuse was the team that should have been slotted into this play-in matchup with UCLA. Upon further review, and having run my machine learning applications, there is no doubt in my mind that the selection committee got it right. Noyte, too that I am stating that UCLA is guaranteed of getting the win. I am saying, that UCLA is the smart bet in this matchup and making smart bets over the course of the Tournament is a solid path toward potential profitability.

MSU is 5-19 ATS in orad/neutral court setting when playing ateam with a winning record over the last two seasons; 4-14 ATS in road/netral court settings and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least four or more points-per-game; 0-7 ATS this season away from home and following five consecutive games where their opponent committed 14 or fewer turnovers.

From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened that MSU is 2-11 ATS in games in which they attempted 55 to 65 shots this season; 18-61 ATS in games played and allowing 75 to 81 points over the last 15 seasons.

Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets
9:00 PM EST, March 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets -6.5 points

An outstanding betting system is on Denver tonight and has earned an 96-43-2 ATS record good for 69.1% winning bets over the last seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on home favorites of 9.5 or fewer points that are coming off an ATS win and in matchup of teams that have won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season. Plus, a subset that filters if the favorite lost to the spread the last time they played the current opponent has earned a 48-14 ATS record for 77% winning bets.

Charlotte is just 10-21 ASTS in games with a total between 220 and 229.5 points in games played over the last two seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 18-4 ATS in home games when they have shot 50% from the field and 40% or better from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons.

Milwaukee vs Philadelphia
7:00 PM EST, March 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers + 6 points.

I also recommend a sprinkle on the money line. I bet these dogs with 85% of normal 4% bet amount using the line (Spread) and then using the remaining 15% on the money line. Over the course of the NBA season, you will definiltey increase the ROI and profits.

Bet on home teams using the money line that are coming off a hard fought home win, but did not cover the spread and are playing their fifth game in the past week has earned an incredible 33-4 SU record for 89% winning bets.

Milwaukee has been a money-burning 7-23 ATS in road game facing good shooting teams that are making at least 46% of their shots in games played over the last two seasons. 76ers are 9-1 ATS in home games and facing an guest that is a dominant team outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points-per-game.

Brooklyn vs Indiana
7:00 PM EST, March 17, 2021
4% Best Bet UNDER 233.5 points

The total opened at 229.5 points and has seen continuous bets being made on the OVER. The price has increased 4-points and now becomes an even better value bet on the UNDER and is definiltey a contrarian bwet, which I always like quite a bit.

Indiana is 33-12 UNDER in home games when facing teams that are allowing 110 or more PPG over the last three seasons.

Betting the UNDER with a total of 230 or more points, with a team that has won foiur or more of their last six games and is playing their fourth or fewer game in the last 10 days as earned bettors a 95-46-2 UNDER record for 67% winning bets in games palyed over the last 25 seasons.

Atlanta vs Houston
8:00 PM EST, March 16, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Houston Rockets + 8.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

The Hawks improved to 3-0 under McMillan with their 100-82 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday and will look to extend their season-long winning streak when they visit the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. This game, may see them extend the win streak to 4-games, but do not cover the spread. Morevoer, this is a situation, where a Houston would not surprise me in the least.

Atlanta is 9-20 ATS in road games facing teams that are allowing 110 or more points-per-game.

Betting on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games and facing a team that has covered the spread in three or more of their last four games has earned a 75-29 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Atlanta is just 3-14 ATS after covering four or five of their last 6 games spanning the last two seasons.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
10:30 PM EST, March 15, 2021
4% Best bet on Golden State +2 points. Sprinkle the momney line only if the spread reaches 3 or more points.

The Warriors stopped a four-game losing streak with a big-time win over Western Conference leading Jazz, 131-119 as a 7.5 point underdog. Lakers have lost six of their last nine games, and two of their last three.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the Warriors are 22-3 ATS for 88% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points and had the better and more efoicient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last five seasons.

Philadelphia vs New York
7:00 PM EST, March 15, 2021

Betting on road favorites of not higher than -150 on the momney line that have lost three or more of their last four games from March 1 on to the end of the regular season has earned a 103-63 record for 62% winning bets making the $100 bettor a $2,420 profit over the last five seasons.

Philadelphia is 14-4 after having lost four or more of their last five matches. They are also 15-7 after allowing five or more goals.

Milwaukee vs Washington
7:00 PM EST, March 15, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks -8 points

This is the second consecutive metting between these teams. On Saturday, Washington’s Russell Westbrook had a triple-double, and made a 3-pointer to tie the game at 119-119, but Milwaukee scored the finals six points to secure the win. The Wizards will be short-handed again playing with out Beal and Bertans, who is fourth on the team in scoring at 11.3 PPG. Washington has four players scoring in double-digits and will be without two of them and Beal is the NBA scoring leader. Beal may play, but I doubt he will be better than 90% of his usual self.

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are outscoring their opponents by at least 6 PPG and are coming off a game that they allowed 115 or more points has earned a solid 52-26 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Milwaukee is an outstanding 79-6 SU and 71-14 ATS for 84% winning bets when they have scored at least 111 points, made 48% or more of their field goal attempts, and had at least five more rebounds than their opponents in games played over the last ten seasons. 47-13 ATS for 78.3% in games played over the last three seasons.

Oregon State vs Coloroado
PAC-12 Tournament Championship
10:30 PM EST, March 13, 2021
5% Best Bet on Colorado -9 points.

Colorado has significant advantages at both ends of the court. The greatest advantage is at the charity stripe where Colorado gets to the line as much as the average PAC-12 or D-1 team but ranks best in the nation making 83.4% of those shots. Colorado ranks 103rd with a 26.6 free-throw attempt rate and will exceed their season average by as many as ten attempts given that OSU ranks 245th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. 
By my measures and machine learning analytics, Colorado ranks 12th-best in offensive efficiency in the nation. OSU is a distant 82nd in offensive efficiency.  Colorado ranks 53rd in shooting efficiency while OSU is a distant 195th nationally. Colorado ranks 56th in defensive shooting efficiency while OSU is 238th. 
OSU head coach Tinkle is 9-20 ATS away from home after two consecutive wins. Colorado head coach Boyle is a solid 32-16 ATS after three consecutive games where the opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds and 18-5 ATS in four consecutive games where the opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds. 
From the machine learning applications, we learn that Colorado is 17-6 ATS in games in which they scored 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Indiana vs Phoenix
10:00 PM EST, March 13, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns -7 points

Bettinng on home teams that are on a five or more-game win streak and have won 60 to 70% of their games on the seasons and facing an opponent that has won 40 to 49% of their games on the seasons has earned a 25-4 SU record and 19-8-2 ATS for 70.4% winning bets over the last ten seasons. If the home team we are betting on also defeated this opponent in the last matchup, the record soars to an incredible 21-2 SU and 18-4-1 ATS for 82% winning bets.

From the machine learning applications we are informed that Phoenix is 42-19 SU and 46-15 ATS for 75.4% winning bets when scoring 111 or mor epoints and shooting at least 48% from the field in games played over the last three seasons.

Iona vs Fairfield
4:00 PM EST, March 13, 2021
Metro Atlantic Tournament Championship.
4% Best Bet on Fairfield +8.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. 

A few quick hitters.
Fairfield is 19-7 ATS when facing solid defensive teams allowing 42% or worse shooting in games played over the last three seasons. They are 10-2 ATS when playing their third game in five days. Iona is an imperfect 0-9 ATS in road/neutral sites after two consecutive wins of six or fewer points. Head Coach Young is 19-5-1 ATS when playing on back-to-back days or with no more than one day of rest between games.

Ohio State vs Michigan
Big Ten Semifinals
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
4% Best Bet on Ohio State +6 poinnts and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. 

The pace of this matchup is going to be slower than average for these two teams. Michigan and Ohio State rank 9th and 10th averaging 67.8 possessions-per-40-minutes. The machine learning applications predict that both teams will not exceed 68 possessions each in this game. Despite the lower style of game, both teams are incredibly efficient on the offensive end. Michigan is one of four teams in the nation ranking in the top-20 in offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage. Ohio State and Michigan are excellent free-throw shooting teams making 77% of those shots. However, OSU gets to the stripe far more often than Michigan. Plus, Ohio State plays a defense to defend shots and not force turnovers. As a result, a Michigan team that ranks 263rd attempting 16.3 free throws per game will get even fewer against OSU. 

Referees in the Big Ten Tournament have been whistle happens and calling far more fouls than during the regular season and heavily favors OSU if the foul-calling officiating continues. 

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Ohio State is 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS for 82.4% winning bets when scoring 77 or more points and making 7 or more free throws than the opponent in games played over the last five seasons. 

UMASS-Lowell vs Hartford
American East Tournament Championship
11:00 AM EST, March 13, 2021

4% Best Bet on Hartford -2.5 points

Hartford is the better team at both ends of the court and will control the pace of play. Both teams won their semifinal game last Saturday so they have had seven days of rest and prep time for this Championship game. The pace of play of the entire conference is on eof the slowest in the nation. The AEC averages 68 possessions-per-40-minutes with no team averaging 70 or more.

UMASS-Lowell (UML) plays second-fastest at 69.3 poessessions-per-40-minutes and Hartford eighth of the 10-team conference averaging 66.4 possessions. Hartford has a much better defense than UML based on assist-to-turnover ratio. The machine learning applications predict that UML will have at least five more turnovers than Hartford. Teams in the conference final that scpore more points than their season-to-date average and their opponent commits 4 or more turnovers than they do has led to a 9-3-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Connecticut vs Creighton
Big East Tournament Semifinals, Madison Square Garden, NY
9:00 PM EST, March 12, 2021

4% Best Bet on Crieghton -1

Play on neutral court favorites or pick-em that are coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points in their last game and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a highly profitable 34-14 ATS record for 71% ATS winners.

The machine learning applications predict that Crieghton will have five or fewer tunrovers than UCONN and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio. In games where Creighton has matched or exceeded these measures has produced a 20-3 ATS record over the last five seasons.

UCONN is a miserable 4-17 ATS in road games after four consecutive double-digit wins.

Denver vs Memphis
8:00 PM EST, March 12, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a previous ATS win and with both they and their opponent sporting win precentages between 50 and 60% on the season has made 72.3% winners onm an 81-3-2 ATS record.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 44-21-2 ATS when scoring at least 111 points in games played over the last three seasons.

North Carolina vs Virginia Tech
9:00 PM EST, March 11, 2021
ACC Quarterfinals
5% Best Bet on North Carolina -3.5 points
UNC is coming into their traditional form after a shaky first half of the regular season. They throttled Notre Dame 101-59 last night and teams playing with zero rest and scored 100 or more points in their previous game are 69-47-4 ATS and if the team is in the ACC, Big East, B-12, B-10, P-12 or SEC have earned a 31-16-1 ATS re3cord for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing their third game in the past 7 days, and is coming off a conference win scoring at least 80 points has earned a 79-40 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the team scored 90 or more points, the ATS record improves to 77% winning bets. 
UNC is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking second and averaging 43.2 rebounds-per-game. They also rank 31st averaging 15.8 assists-per-game, and V-Tech has averaged just 14.2 assists-per-game ranking 85th. UNC has advantages with their recent form (momentum) ranking 16th nationally, consistency ranking 35th, and 55th in the pace of play, which V-Tech will struggle to keep up with tonight. 
V-Tech must play slow and control the pace of the game. They rank 278th averaging 68 possessions-per-40-minutes. UNC ranks second in second-chance scoring and going gup a V-Tech defense that ranks 135th in defensive second-chance scoring. 
V-Tech is 5-15 ATS when facing a team that is outscoring their opponents by at least 5 PPG in games played over the last three seasons. UNC is a stellar 33-15 ATS in road games following a game in which their defense allowed the opponent 33% or lower shooting.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky
Noon ET, March 11, 2021
SEC First Round

4% Best Bet on Kentucky -4 points

Betting on neutral court teams that are solid on the defensive end allowing 42.5 to 45% opponent shooting and now facing a team that is shooting between 45 and 47.5% and is the better ball handlin team committing no more than 14 turnovers-per-game and their opponent averaging more than 14 turnovers-per-game has earned a 35-13-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 73% winning bets.

Calipari is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game in which his team made 13 or more 3-point shots.

Duke vs Louisville

6:30 PM EST, March 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Louisville plus the points and NO sprinkle on the money line. 

Betting on all teams lined within 3.5 points between on either side of pick,  that is coming off a double-digit loss and facing a foe that they already defeated earlier in the season as an underdog has earned a 55-28-1 ATS mark good for 67% winners over the last five seasons. 

Duke is 0-7 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 5 or more per game. 

Tampa Bay vs Detrtoit
7:30 PM EST, March 8, 2021
4% Best Bet on Detroit using the Puck Line and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Yes, it is a fact, that there are bets to be made that appear to have no chance of winning on the surface. Make no mistake about it that these types of huge NHL dogs will bring profits to you over the course of the full season.

This ragged mutt of a dog is backed by an incredibly profitable system that has earned an 23-5 record for 82% winning bets an dhas made the $100 bettor a profit of $2,210 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line that are hposting a foe that is coming off a blowout win of at least three goals and with the ragged host coming off three or more losses of 2-goals or more. There you have it!

Check this team angle out. Tampa Bay is a miserable 1-10 following two consecutive games in which both teasm scored three or more goals in matches played over the last two seasons.

This play will be graded using the +1.5 puck line. Consider betting 70% of your 4% amount on the puckline and 30% using the money line.

Long Beach State vs. CS-Northridge
Big West Tournament First Round, Michelob Ultra Arena, NV
6:00 PM EST, March 9, 2021
4% Best Bet on Long Beach State +2.5 points and if this line reaches 3 or more points then sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

The Big West Conference (BWC) is a weak conference, however, their tournament is going to provide many entertaining and dram-filled games. This matchup is one of them. UC-Santa Barbara is the cream of the conference and will be favored in every game they play. They went 15-3 in conference play and 19-4 overall this season, but they must win this tournament because there will not be any at-large bids given to this conference.

The pace of play will be aboverage based on the conference and national ratings. LBST ranks 13th nationally and fastest in the BWC averaging 84.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. Cal State Northridge (CSN) ranks 99th nationally and 4th in the BWC with an average of 71.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. LBST has advantages over the CSN defense in most offensive efficiency measures including overall efficiwency in points-scored per 100 possessions. Moreover, LBST, has a significantly better defense ranking only 198th nationally in overall defensive efficiencies. CSN ranks 345th allowing 111.5 points-per-100-opponent possessions.

A few quick hitters. CSN head coach Gottfried is just 1-9 ATS in road games facing teams that are getting outrebounded by at least four or more rebounds-per-game from the 16th game on out. LBST head coach Monson is 24-12-1 ATS in road/neutral venues facing a team that is allowing an average of 45 or higher opponent shooting.

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga
WCC Semifinals
9:00 PM EST, March 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on St. Mary’s +17.5-points

Let’s start with a proven and highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-26-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The system requires us to bet on double-digit underdogs that are coming off two games scoring 55 or fewer points and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more points in three consecutive games. That is all there is to it.

St. Mary’s is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more of their last six games pver the last two seasons. Gonzaga is just 11-24 in roiad or neutral sites coming off three or more home games installed as a favorite in each one of them.

Wisconmsin-Milwaukee vs Cleveland State
6:30 PM EST, March 8, 2021
Horizon Tournament Semifinals. Indiana Farmers Coliseum
4% Best Bet on Cleveland State

The line for this game is starting to ‘steam’ with Cleveland State, who has garnered just 33% of the tickets but has accounted for 87% of the money bet at about 2:00 ET. I do think the line will continue to grind higher, so if you can get -3.5 points grab it. You are more likely to get -4 points, but that is ok as well given that the machine learning applications are projecting a Cleveland State win by at least 8-points. 

Betting on home favorites of less than 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a conference foe has earned a solid 72-36-4 ATS for 67% winning bet over the last five seasons. 

Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs. 

Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs.