Kentucky vs Kansas 

10-UNIT game of the Month on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points. 

There are monumental traditions in this matchup starting with the head coaches. Calipari got his start in NCAA coaching at Kansas under Larry Brown, even met his wife at Kansas. Bill Self has been the head coach of Kansas for 19 seasons and got his start as a graduate assistant the year after Calipari left Kansas. How fate sometimes knows exactly what IT is doing. Now, the two winningest programs in Division-1 history face off with only a three-game deficit separating Kentucky (2,343-732) and Kansas (2,340-873) 

Jayhawk OchaiAgbaji has established himself as one of the nation's top threats and is coming off a career-high 37 points in a double-overtime win Monday against No. 13 Texas Tech. He presents all sorts of matchup problems for the Wildcats tonight. Agbaji averages 21.3 points, and Christian Braun chips in 15.3. No other Jayhawks average double figures, which reflects their significant depth, a strength Self taps using different combinations. The many different combinations that Self uses throughout any game is impossible for an opposing coach to match even if they do have a strong bench.  

Wildcats are just 7-22 ATS in road games with a posted total ranging between 150 and 159.5 points and 5-15 ATS following three consecutive conference games. Jayhawks are 32-15-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and 68-36 ATS following a game in which they allowed 80 or more points and 33-16-1 ATS after allowing 85 or more points. Moreover, they are 42-24-2 ATS following a game in which both teams scored 80 or more points. In their previous game Kansas needed overtime to defeat Texas Tech 94-91.  

From my predictive models the following angles represent the projections for this game. Kentucky is just 24-55 ATS in road games allowing the host 47% or better shooting; 4-30 ATS 12% in road games allowing 80 to 86 points and 9-48 ATS 16% allowing 80 or more points in a road game. Kansas is 18-4-1 ATS 82% when scoring 80 or more points.  

LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Bucs 

3:00 EST, Divisional Playoff Round 

10-UNIT best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points 

I do believe there is one tremendous fact that provides the ultimate motivation for any team led by Tom Brady, who is 44 years old and is older than the three other NFC teams head coaches. Brady still has a year left on his contract, however, there is reason to believe that he would retire with another Super Bowl win. Imagine being a teammate knowing you can be part of that history. 

Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS in the second half of each of the last two seasons when facing a team that has completed 64% or more of their past attempts and 10-2 ATS facing teams averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and 7-0 ATS facing a team gaining at least 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt.  

Rams are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons; 2-11 ATS in road games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game. 

Bucs head coach Arians is 9-2 ATS when facing the elite NFL offenses that are gaining at least six yards per play in the second half of each season.  

From my predictive models, the Bucs are expected to score 27 or more points and have fewer turnovers than the Rams. In past games since Brady arrived in Tampa, the Bucs are 21-1, 20-1-1 ATS, and 11-10-1 over-under when scoring 27 or more points and winning the turnover battle.  

Indiana vs Phoenix 
4% bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points. 

This is the 4th road game of their scheduled 5-game travel through the Western Conference. They defeated the Lakers 111-104 as 5.5-point dogs on Wednesday and then defeated the Warriors, who had almost all starters given the night off, 121-117 as 13.5-point dogs. The status of those starters was announced just prior to the tip and the market had a very small window of time to adjust. I think Phoenix will not bench any starters and will not overlook the Pacers tonight. 

Pacers are just 20-35 ATS facing teams that are making at least 37% of their three-point shot attempts spanning the last three seasons. Also, betting against underdogs that are coming off back-to-back upset wins has earned a 196-133-6 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and if the dog is playing their third or more consecutive road game installed as a double-digit underdog has seen our favorite earn a highly profitable 22-10 ATS record good for 69% winning bets.  

San Francisco vs Packers 

8:15 PM EST, January 22, 2022 

5% Best Bet on the 49ers plus the points and a 3-UNIT bet UNDER the posted total. 

The 49ers and the Bucs are the two highest rated teams in my current power ratings. Despite being the first playoff team to ever play a game with 6-days of rest and having to face a team coming off the BYE, the 49ers are playing so extraordinarily well it just will not matter in thi matchup. I also think the media and others are over hyping the game-time temperatures. All of these professional players have played several games in their college and pro careers in even worse conditions then they will experience tomorrow night. 

In recent weeks, the Packers defense cannot stop the run and are being gashed period. In fact, they are allowing more than 5.0 yards per rush in their home games this season. Did you know that playoff home teams that allowed 5 or more rushing yards per attempt are 5-10 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, and the UNDER is 10-5. So, this works in favor in the UNDER and modestly against the Packers. 

Over the last 10 regular and playoff seasons, betting the UNDER in road games with the #6 seed has earned an amazing 25-6 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets with 58% of the bets going UNDER the total by at least 7 points.  

SF is 15-3-1 UNDER for 83% winning bets when facing teams that average 32 or more minutes in time of possession in games played after the halfway point of the season and includes the playoffs.  

From my predictive model, the 49ers are expected to pass for a minimum of at least 8 yards per pass attempt and will gain at least 380 total yards. In past road games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to 32-14-2 ATS record for 69% winning bets. Playoff road teams that gain 380 or more yards and pass for 8 or more yards per pass attempt have earned a 17-5 ATS record good for 77% winning bets.   

Cincinnati vs Tennessee 
Divisional Round NFL Playoffs 

4-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals and 1.0-Unit Best Bet parlay using the Bengals money line and the OVER. 

0.5-unit alternative line parlay Bengals –3.5 and OVER 50.5 points 
0.25 parlay Trenton Irwin to score and Bengals win +3000 

I am on the Bengals in this matchup and believe they all the pieces in place to earn a historic franchise road win for their frenzied fans. Let’s look at a betting angle that has been highly profitable over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on the OVER involving a game in which a team is coming off a win but failed to cover the spread (they were favored) and now facing an opponent that is coming off a home win. That simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 46-13 OVER record good for 78% winning bets.  

Tennessee is the team coming off the no-cover home win and if that team is coming off BYE or the is the first seed in the playoffs earning the week off has led to a terrible 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS mark for 17% winners.  

Betting on underdogs that had no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing an opponent coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 65-40 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 10 seasons including playoffs. Over the last 20 playoff seasons, teams that come into the game on a four-game turnover streak committing not one turnover are 5-1 SU and ATS. 

Arizona vs LA Rams 

4% best bet on the Rams minus the points.  

My models give the Rams the second-highest power rating of the 14 playoff teams and only the Bucs are higher – not the Packers.  

The models also project that the Rams will gain at least 6.2 yards per play and score at least 27 points. In past games in which the Rams scored 27 or more points and gained at least 6.2 YPPL, they went on to an 83-20 SU record and 67-31-5 ATS mark for 68.4% winners over the last 15 seasons.  

Rutgers vs PSU 
4% best bet on Penn State  
Penn State (7-6, 2-3 Big Ten) enters its conference matchup against Rutgers in University Park, Pa., on Tuesday evening coming off a loss, while the Scarlet Knights (9-5, 3-1) are coming off a victory. 

However, the Nittany Lions may have had the more impressive of the two performances, both of which took place Saturday. 

Penn State rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit at home against No. 3 Purdue to take a one-point lead with 3:42 left only to falter in the final stages of the game in a 74-67 loss. 

Rutgers, which has won four consecutive games since returning from a COVID-19 pause, blew out conference doormat Nebraska at home, 93-65. 

But this will be the Scarlet Knights' first foray on the road since Dec. 12, when they lost to Seton Hall, 77-63. Rutgers is 0-4 this season away from its cozy, on-campus arena. 

Betting on any team in a game lined between the 3’s in a matchup two solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding their opponent by 3 or more boards per game, with our team a solid shooting team making between 45 and 47.5% of their shots on the season and taking on a defensive-minded foe that is allowing between 40 and 42.5% on the season has made a 55-24 record good for 70% winners and $30K for the Dime Bettor. 

The College Football Championship 2021 
8 PM EST, January 10, 2022 

5% Best Bet on Georgia minus the points over Alabama 
3% Best Bet OVER the total 
1% Bet OVER Georgia Sacks of the Alabama quarterback 
0.5% Georgia –10.5 and OVER 50.5 points +725 at BetMGM 

The Georgia defense ranks among the all-time best units in over two decades. Yes, they allowed 41 points in the SEC Championship loss to Alabama, but they still managed to post a 26.9 yards per point allowed ratio for the season. Only seven teams in the past 20 seasons have ever finished a season at 25 or higher and prior to the Tide loss sat at 32 yards per point. By comparison, there were three other teams at 20 or higher and they were Clemson (20.6), Texas A&M (20.5), and Penn State (20.5). The difference between Georgia’s 26.7 YPPT ratio and the next three-best teams is monumental and cannot be underestimated.  

What is underestimated is the fact that Georgia, despite their plodding, sometimes boring, offensive schemes evolved into one of the most efficient units in the nation. They rank 5th in the nation of 130 teams with a 11.4 yards per point offensive ratio. The differential between Georgia’s offensive and defensive yards per point ratio is the widest by any team since at least 1980 and one of the dominant reasons I see Georgia winning this game and potentially by double digits. 

Bet OVER Georgia SACKS of the Alabama quarterback 

Here is a great betting system sporting a 48-21-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons, 27-10-3 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past three seasons and is 11-2 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past season. Bet on any team from Week 8 on out including bowl games and the CFP that is averaging 200 to 249.9 rushing yards per game, allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and facing an opponent that averages 150 to 200 rushing yards per game on the season.  

OVER is well supporting by the fact that Alabama is 11-1 OVER following a game in which they allowed three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons and 9-1 OVER following a game in which they allowed nine or fewer points.  

From my predictive models Georgia is 8-4 ATS this season, 15-8 ATS the past three seasons and 137-63 ATS since 2000 when they scored 28 or more points. The OVER is 114-50 since 2000 in games that Georgia scored 28 or more points. Alabama is 1-3 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-27 ATS the past 20 seasons when they have allowed 9 or more yards per pass attempt and the OVER in these games has gone 4-0 this season and 7-0 the past three seasons.  

Chicago Bulls vs Dallas Mavericks 
4% bet on the Bulls minus the points 

Bet on road favorites that are taking on a host that led at the half of their last game by 20 or more points. This simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 98-46-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and is 12-6 ATS for 767% winners over the last five seasons. 

Dallas has been a money-losing 9-22 ATS in home games after winning their previous game on the road spanning the past three seasons. They are also a weak 4-15 ATS in home games and have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games in games played over the last three seasons.  

New England vs Miami 
4% best bet on the Patriots minus the points 

Here is a sensational betting algorithm that has systematically earned a 49-19 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that allows 95 to 125 rushing yards per game and is facing an opponent that averages only 75 to 99 RYPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games rushing the ball for less than 100 yards in each game. This angle has earned an 18-6-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.  

Under Belichick the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in road games and revenging a same loss of three or fewer points.  

New Orleans vs Atlanta 

4% bet on the Falcons plus the points 

Here is terrific betting algorithm that has produced consistent winning bets on a home team using the money line that is coming off two or more UNDERS and now facing an opponent that is also coming two or more unders has produced a 26-12 record for 68.4% winning bets over the past five seasons and is 48-23 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If home team is an underdog of not more than 6.5 points, they start really barking to the tune of an 11-5 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

The Saints committed no turnovers while forcing two turnovers in their 18-10 win over Carolina last week. They are 0-4 SU following a game in which they had a +2 or better turnover margin this season.  

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville 
4% bet on the Jaguars plus the points 

4% bet on the UNDER  

Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game.  

Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season.  

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville 
4% bet on the Jaguars plus the points 

4% bet on the UNDER  

Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game.  

Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season.  

Spurs vs 76ers 
5% (5-UNIT) best bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.  

The 76ers are back to full strength and appear to have the COVID-19 problems that inflicted the team a month ago in their rearview mirrors. They have won five consecutive games and will looking to make it six straight tonight against the Spurs at the Wells Fargo Arena. 

Embiid, who recently was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Month, has at least 30 points in all five wins. The Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, but this style works against them in a big way having to defend Embiid in the paint or out beyond the arc. Embiid has a complete all-around game going for him and his teammates and is simply unstoppable. 

The Spurs, Dejounte Murray came off the COVID-19 list and produced 22 points in the Spurs' 99-97 win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Murray had been out for 10 days, including five games. The Spurs lost four consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in three of the four losses, while Murray was out. With Murray back in action, the market is giving us the opportunity to ’buy’ the 76ers at a cheap price and I see them winning this game by double-digits. 

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 110 points and have 14 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these measures, they went on to earn a 72-26 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons and when installed as a 4.5 to 9.5 point home favorite has produced a 37-1 SU record and 30-8 ATS record for 79% winning bets. Take the 76ers.  

LSU vs Kansas State 
4% (4-UNIT) best bet on Kansas State minus the points 

I do not see how in the world the Tigers will be able to be competitive after all of the players that have entered the transfer portal.  

The Tigers (6-6) have an interim head coach, offensive line coach Brad Davis, and they're still not sure who will play quarterback against the Wildcats (7-5) in the final bowl game of this season. After Tuesday, only the CFP National Championship Game remains. Starting quarterback Max Johnson has transferred to Texas A&M, and LSU has yet to reveal the NCAA's ruling on the team's appeal for freshman Garrett Nussmeier to not lose his redshirt season if he plays in the bowl game. LSU also will be without two of its top defensive players, who opted out to focus on the NFL draft in linebacker Damone Clark and defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. 

From my predictive models that account for all the missing players on the LSU roster, there is a high probability that K-State will score at least 28 points in this game. In past games in which K-State scored at least 28 points they are 5-1 ATS this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 142-60 ATS over the past 25 seasons.  

Las Vegas vs Indianapolis 

4% (4-UNIT) best Bet on the Colts minus the points. 

The Colts started out this season losing four of the first five games and looked as dysfunctional as that AFC team located in NYC. However, they more than got their acts together on both sides of the ball and are not in thick of the muddled AFC playoff chase. For the first time since 1991, the Raiders won back-to-back games scoring 17 or fewer points in each win. This is not good news for the Raider Nation this week. Teams of two consecutive wins scoring no more than 17 points in each win are just 39-50-2 ATS for 44% wins since 1989. If that team is a dog of 3.5 or more points, they fall flat with a 8-14 ATS record for 36% wins. 

Betting against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog over a divisional foe and has a winning record for the season has earned a 74-36-6 record for 67.3% winning bets since 1989, and 8-1-1 ATS for 89% winners over the last 3 seasons. 
If the current matchup features two winning record teams the record has been 4-1 ATS for 80% wins over the last 3 seasons, and 37-11-5 ATS for 77% winning bets since 1989. 

Miami vs Tennessee 
4-UNIT Bet on the Miami Dolphins plus the points 
0.5% (0.5 Units) Dolphis using the money line 

The Dolphins became the first team in NFL history to have a 7-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in the same season after they defeated the Saints 20-3 Monday. They are on a 7-game win streak and have covered the spread in six of the games. Tennessee earned a massive win over the 49ers to keep their playoff hopes alive knowing the surging Colts are right on their heels.  
 

Tannehill has struggled under pressure this season, ranking 23rd in Total QBR (10.9), 31st in touchdown-to-interception ratio and last in yards per drop backs at 1.2 yards per play. The Dolphins' defense leads the NFL with a 37% pressure rate. The #Finsup will bring pressure more than 50% of the offensive plays the Titans run and without Henry’s pounding ground attack the Titans will struggle to move the chains. 

The Titans trailed at the half in their 20-17 comeback win over the 49ers Sunday. Teams that trailed at the half by 8 or more points and came back to win the game and are now playing at home are a money-burning 17-42-2 ATS for 29% wins over the last 10 seasons. Miami makes it 8 wins in a row.  

Philadelphia vs Washington 

4% (4-UNIT) best bet on the Washington Football Team 
0.5% (0.5 Units) Washington using the money line 

This is just a horrid situational matchup for the playoff-hopeful Eagles and their fans. What appears to be an ‘easy’ win somehow has the potential to be a disaster for the City of Brotherly Love faithful. Recency bias could not be at higher extremes with WFT getting destroyed and humiliated by the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys and the Eagles taking care of business against the hapless NY Giants.  

Underdogs, like the Washington Iron Condors (They need a real mascot) that have been beaten by the spread by 27 or more points spanning their last three games and are playing in Week 15 on out have gone 58-110 34% SU, 96-68-4 ATS for 59%, UNDER 90-77 for 54% winners since 2000.  
Now if our barking dog is chained up at home, they are 29-39 SU, 45-22-1 ATS for 67.2%, Under 39-29 for 57% winners since 2000. 
If our ferocious furry friend is coming off a double-digit ATS loss, they end up 18-26 SU, 30-13-1 ATS for 70% winners and 27-17 UNDER for 62% since 2000O. Over last five seasons, the Iron Condors are 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS, UNDER 11-3 when coming off an embarrassing double-digit ATS loss. 

Falcons vs Bills 

4% (4-UNIT) best bet OVER the posted total 
Let’s look at a super highly profitable betting algorithm that has earned an outstanding 40-18-3 OVER record for 69% winners over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet the OVER with a contender-type team coming off a game in which they gained 400 or more yards and has outgained their opponents by 40 to 99 yards per game on the season and facing a team that has been outgained by their opponents by 40 to 99 yards per game on the season.  

Over the past two seasons the Bills are 8-0 OVER when facing a team, whose defense allows 64% or higher pass completions. Bills are 12-3-1 OVER coming off a double digit win in games played over the last two seasons. 

Rams vs Ravens 
4% Upset Alert on the Ravens plus the points 
0.5% Ravens money line 

Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game committing no more than a single turnover and facing an opponent that is coming off a game having lost the turnover battle by 2 or more has earned a 32-11-1 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Rams have won 4 straight games and cover the spread in all those games. They defeated Minnesota 30-23 last week but had three turnovers and forced Minnesota to just one. Harbaugh is 12-3 ATS off three or more consecutive OVERS as the coach of the Ravens. 

Baylor vs Mississippi 
8:45 EST, January 1 

4% best bet on Mississippi  
4% Best Bet UNDER  
After leading the Rebels to a 10-2 record following a season-ending 31-21 Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State, Corral and the No. 8 Rebels will face No. 7 Baylor in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's night. One of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores (he has 11 on the season), the Ventura, California, native finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting.  

Betting the UNDER in a game with both teams playing well and having won four of more of their last five games and taking on a foe that has won at least 8 of their last 10 games and a total ranging from 52 to 60 points has earned a solid 124-88 record for 59% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 32-18 UNDER for 64% winners over the last three seasons. If the game is a Bowl Game or CFP, the UNDER has earned a 47-22 UNDER record good for 68% winners since 2006 and 12-5 UNDER for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons.  

Lane Kiffin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER following five consecutive games in which his team did not commit more than one turnover. He is also Kiffin is 17-6 ATS off a road win against a conference rival in all games he has coached.  

Utah vs Ohio State 

4% (4-UNIT Best bet) on Ohio State minus the points 

So, four important players are OUT for OSU with WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, DT Haskell Garrett, and T Nicholas Petit-Frer being the names. Now, on most any other team not named Alabama; this would be a major loss of talent few teams could overcome. Well, Ohio State’s second unit of players would be a ranked team in my opinion, and you will see these replacements for this foursome of NFL-bound starters showcase their skills on a national stage. This game has also a showcase from head coach Brian Day’s offseason recruiting efforts too, so do not think for a second that they will just go through the motions.  

Starting at WR will be freshman Marvin Harrison, Jr. Harrison hails from Philadelphia and played for St. Joseph's Prep and who was the No. 1 ranked WR prospect out of Pennsylvania and graded as a 4-star prospect and ranked 91st in the nation. His father, Marvin Harrison Sr. was an eight-time NFL All-Pro selection who spent his entire 13-year career with the Indianapolis Colts.  

TreVeyon Henderson hails from Hopewell, Virginia and played for the Hopewell High School. Set Ohio State’s freshman rushing record with a 270-yard performance versus Tulsa, breaking a 49-year record held by Archie Griffin, is just the fourth true freshman RB in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards, was a Semifinalist for Walter Camp Player of the Year, scored 17 total touchdowns through 10 games to rank tied for fourth nationally, was one of 10 semifinalists (and the only freshman) for the Doak Walker Award, which is presented annually to college football’s best running back. Need more convincing about the OSU depth at the skill positions? I didn’t think so.  

Henderson’s backup is a tremendous running back in his own right. Miyan Williams is 5-8 and 225 pounds of steel-like muscle and is extraordinarily quick and elusive and extremely hard to bring down. I expect him to see a lot more action in this game and he and the OSU offensive line will pound the Utah defense into submission by the second half.  

From my predictive models, OSU is expected to score 27 or more points and force Utah into two or more turnovers. In past games in which OSU met or exceeded these performance measures, OSU has earned an outstanding 99-1 SU record and went 75-24-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons; 19-0 SU, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past three seasons.  

ASU vs Wisconsin 
5-UNIT Best Bet on ASU plus the points 

My predictive model shows a high probability that ASU will score at least 21 points in this game. Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season, 1-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-44 ATS over the last 15 seasons in games in which they allowed 21 or more points.  

Here is one of the best money line betting systems you will ever see and has earned a 22-12 record for 65% winners over the last 10 seasons. The magic is that the system has averaged a +150-underdog wager and subsequently making the Dime Bettor $41,000 in profits on just 34 bets for a monster 150% ROI. Bet on neutral field favorites using the money line in non-conference games that have won two of their last three games and with both teams from the Power-5 conferences.  

76ers vs Nets 

The Nets got James Harden back on the roster late last week and his first two games were dominating and reminded me of his days with the Houston Rockets. However, the story now shifts with the probable return of KD to the lineup and how he and more importantly he and James will play together on the same court tonight. The Nets also got rotation players DeAndre' Bembry, Bruce Brown and James Johnson back over the weekend and LaMarcus Aldridge is also expected to play Thursday. The 76ers have been more at full strength in the past week then at any time over the past month.  

The line opened with the Nets priced as a 3.5-point home favorite and the news of KD’s return has seen a steam move to –5.5 points. The total opened at 217 and the news has since forced the market to move higher now at 222.5 points.  

Betting on teams fresh off a road win over a divisional foe and playing their third game in five days has produced a solid 23-10-1 ATS record for 70% winners over the last five seasons and 17-6 ATS over the last three seasons for 74% winners. 

Pittsburgh vs Michigan State 
4-UNIT bet on MSU minus the points 

The loss of MSU RB and recipient of the Doak Walker and Walter Camp Player of the Year awards, Kenneth Walker III, is not nearly as great as Pittsburgh’s loss of quarterback Kenny Picket, who will more than likely be the top quarterback taken in the upcoming NFL draft. Walker finished second nationally gaining 1,636 rushing yards, but there is a stable of strong skilled running backs on the Spartans roster, including sophomore Jordon Simmons. 

From my predictive models, MSU is 8-1 ATS this season, 12-3 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points and 5-1 ATS this season and 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when rushing for at least 150 yards.  

Purdue vs Tennessee 
One of the largest line moves I have seen for any Bowl Game. Purdue opened as a 3-point favorite and now Tennessee has rolled to be priced as a 7.5-point favorite and I do sincerely believe we are getting a gift opportunity to be Purdue and take the 7.5-points. This will be a pseudo home game for the Volunteers but not worth more than 10-points. 

Tennessee is 7-5 and scored 38 or more points in each of their seven wins, won three of their last four games with the only loss to then-No.1 Georgia and did score 45 or more points in their last six wins. However, Purdue has a defense that shut down some of the best offenses in the Big Ten and they were undoubtedly the giant slayer in Big Ten action. 

Purdue’s defense is led by linebacker Jeremy Banks, who takes great angles to tackle ball carriers and is just never out of position. He led Purdue by a huge margin recording 108 tackles including 4.5 sacks. Defensive back Alontae Taylor had been recovering from a significant foot injury and opted out for this bowl game considering the NFL draft. Even with the NFL draft, I highly doubt he would have been anywhere close to full strength for this game. 

The Boilermakers also have WR and first-team All-American David Bell, who caught 93 balls for 1,286 receiving yards, which was only 21 yards short of the program record held by John Standeford back in the 2002 season.  

My predictive models show that Purdue will score at least 27 points and have more than 150 passing yards than Tennessee will generate. In past games, in which Purdue met or exceeded these measures they have earned an outstanding 9-2 ATS for 82% winners over the last five seasons.  

Oregon vs Oklahoma 
Alamo Bowl 
9:15 EST, December 29, 2021 
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Sooners 
4-UNIT TOTAL OVER 

Betting the OVER in games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points from Week 8 on out to the end of the Bowl season and CFP games, in a matchup of teams that are both allowing 21 to 27.5 yards per game has earned a remarkable 29-8-2 OVER record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

My predictive models expect the Sooners to win this game by double-digits. They also project that the Sooners will score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play. In previous games in which the Sooners met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 79-31-1 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 3-0 ATS in Bowl Games. 

Washington vs Nashville 

4-Unit Bet UNDER the posted total 
Nashville is 17-5 UNDER coming off a road win against a divisional rival over the last three seasons. I think the legs of these skaters are going to fatigue as the game wears on and that the goalies, although they use their legs in explosive powerful quick movements, their fatigue will be far less, in my opinion. So, with the public betting OVER in this matchup, I am going to go with my models and intuition and bet the UNDER when I get to the window. 

Air Force vs Louisville  

First Responder Bowl 
8-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER 

Betting the UNDER in Bowl Games held in the month of December with a total ranging between 49.5 and 56 points that is coming off an upset loss as a favorite has earned an outstanding 42-15-2 UNDER record for 75% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and is 22-5 for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Over the last 10 seasons, if our bowler lost the last game prior to the bowl game by double digits, then they have earned an 8-2 ATS for 80% winners. 

How the Cardinals prepare and then during the game how they react to the Falcons' triple-option ground game will go a long way to be determining the outcome of this game – both side and total. The Falcons lead FBS in rushing yards per game with 341.4, while Louisville allows 156.7, but rarely faces the option. So, from published reports and press conferences and I expecting to see a Louisville defense that will begin the game looking to NOT give up the big play from the option offense. As the game wears on, then Louisville, especially with the lead, will change things up and give them different looks to cause confusion in the highly decisive option scheme. 

Brad Roberts paces Air Force's rushing attack with 1,279 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 4.6 yards a carry. Quarterback Hazziq Daniels has gained 705 yards and nine scores on 5.0 yards per carry, while Deandre Hughes has contributed 471 (8.6 ypc) and Emmanuel Michel 421 (6.1 ypc).  

The Cardinals' offense revolves around quarterback Malik Cunningham. He has thrown for 2,734 yards and 18 touchdowns and needs just 32 yards to reach 1,000 rushing. Having rushed for 19 touchdowns, he has been responsible for 37 scores. He is the only player in the country who has both rushed and passed for more than 15 touchdowns, which is quite impressive considering being on a 6-6 rebuilding squad.  

Bet the UNDER 

Miami vs New Orleans 

10-Unit Best Bet on the Saints plus the points. Love the Saints if they remain an underdog. 

Check out this money line betting angle-system that has earned an incredible 38-10 for 79% winning bets over the last 35 seasons, 64-31 for 69% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and is 7-2 this season. Bet on any team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and also coming off a road win over a divisional opponent. Talk about letdown for the Dolphins in this matchup in New Orleans. 

Since the 1994 season, teams playing in Week 15 on out to the end of the regular season priced as the favorite have gone just 8-14-1 ATS for 36% winning bets 

Iam Book will be the quarterback for the Saints in this matchup because Trevor Siemian is OUT, Taysom Hill is doubtful due to COVID-19. Let’s not forget this is one of the better defenses in the NFC. The Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said all QBs on the roster are preparing and studying virtually or at the Dolphins practice facility for the Dolphins and didn't commit to officially starting Book being the starter. Do not be fooled here with a rookie quarterback, who has been inactive for all 14 of the Saints games this season. He reminds of Nick Mullins in that he makes smart decisions, is highly accurate, and is mobile – at least mobile enough to extend plays.  

Note that the Dolphins were having better results with returning starters. Sixth overall draft choice Jaylen Waddle was re-activated from COVID-19 health and safety protocols and is set to continue his pursuit of an NFL rookie record for catches. He has 86 catches this season. However, the betting line moved only a single point after that news, and I would have thought that he was worth at least 2 to 3 points. So, selling into this near-frenzy wave of Dolphins bets makes perfect logic to me.  

The Dolphins are 3-11 and 4-10 ATS for 29% when playing on Mondays dating back to the 2006 season. That is the worst record on Mondays of any team in that span and includes a 38-17 loss at New Orleans in 2013. So, here we go with an upset alert and let’ cash this 5-Unit Best Bet.  Good Luck to US! 

UCF vs Florida 

4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet on Florida minus the points 

Let’s get right to it. Betting on any team, like Florida, that has been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games and the game taking pace in December has earned a highly profitable 56-21-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS and 78% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

My predictive models project that Florida will score at least 31 points and will gain an average of 6.5 or more yards per play. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone to earn a 20-3 SU record and 16-5-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

Tampa Bay vs Vegas 
4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER 5.5 goals 

Some noteworthy trends that support my predictive models grading for this UNDER bet. Lightning are 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing their fifth or fewer game in the past two weeks in games played over the last three seasons. When on the road the Lightning are on an impressive 8-1 UNDER run when coming off a home win versus a divisional foe over the past two seasons. Vegas is 11-2 UNDER coming off a road game in which both teams score three or more goals over the last three seasons of games played.  

Seattle vs Rams 

4-Unit Bet on the OVER 

Seattle is 22-9 OVER in road games occurring after week 8 of the regular season when playing against an opponent that has won at least 65% of their games on the season and 42-19-1 OVER in road games when playing against an opponent with a winning record under Pete Carroll. Seattle is 78-43 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 20 years and under Pete Carroll, the OVER is a solid 22-7 for 76% winning bets.  

From the predictive models, the Rams are expected to gain 350 or more passing yards and Seattle is 21-6 OVER in games in which they allowed 350 or more passing yards. The Rams are 26-8 OVER when they have gained at least 350 passing yards.  

Green Bay vs Baltimore

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Ravens plus the points.

The NFL season has reached Week 15 and every team is dealing with a multitude of injuries and made worse by the surge in COVID positive test results across the league. The Ravens have lost two straight games and standings have tightened up considerably with 4th place Steelers just 1.5-games behind and Bengals and Browns just one-game behind with four games to play. The Ravens past two losses have been by a combined three points.

Tyler Huntley is a capable backup quarterback should Lamar not be able to make the start nursing a sprained ankle. You may remember we bet on the Ravens when he first started this season and they won outright. So, I am not basing this pick on the quarterback situation.

Packers scored 45 points in their laugher against the Bears, however the Packers are just 3-7 ATS after scoring 44 or more points.

Betting on teams using the money line that are coming off two consecutive tough defeats of fewer than seven points each to a divisional foe and taking on an opponent coming off a home win are 22-12 for 65%, but has averaged a sensational +150 underdog bet and has made the Dime Bettor a $22,000 profit.

Betting on winning record dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after Week 13 and facing a foe with a win percentage 75% or better and has covered the spread by at least 35 points over their last seven games has earned a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last seven seasons.

Cincinnati vs Denver

4-UNIT Bet on the Denver Broncos

The last four times these teams collided the results were decided by a total of just nine points. The Bengals defeated the Broncos in their last trip to Mile High Stadium, but had lost the previous 10 games. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner takes a huge forward to securing a playoff spot while the loser takes a plunge into the depths of playoff pretenders.

Shout out to Ralph Michaels, who has been giving me some cool shoutouts on the Bet On It show almost weekly now, for the following angle.  In a game lined within the 3’s, with one team coming off an ATS win and SU win and with the opponent coming off an ATS loss and SU loss has earned a solid 53-30 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons. Denver is coming off a home 38-10 scrimmage against the Lions, which was their largest home win in seven seasons. The Bengals lost 26-23 as a 1-point dog hosting the 49ers.

Denver is the bet.

Houston vs Jacksonville

4-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars minus the points

The dismissal of head coach Urban Meyer gives the Jaguars a deep exhale and can now focus more on the game of football. When a horrid coaching situation is removed from his coach responsibilities the team often finds greater motivation and finds ways to play far better than previous games. I think this is the Jaguars situation and they do have a solid defensive unit that gets after the quarterback. In fact, first game coaches in weeks 11 through the end of the regular season and facing an opponent that has four or fewer wins are 14-9 ATS for 61% and when favored an even better 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets last five seasons.

Houston vs Jacksonville

8-Unit Bet OVER

2-Unit OVER team total JAX

2-UNIT OVER team total HOU

Betting OVER the total lined between 35.5 and 42 points with one of teams getting outrushed by 75 or more yards in their previous game and are getting outrushed by one or more-yards per carry for the season has earned an outstanding 38-28 record for 58% winners and if this team, Houston currently, is on the road, the OVER is 24-11 OVER good for 69% winners over the last 15 seasons and if a road dog, the OVER is 20-10 for 67% winners.

Titans vs Steelers

4-Unit OVER full game

1-Unit OVER team total Steelers

Here are the quick-hitting bullet points. Tomlin is 11-3 OVER in home games facing an elite team that averages 32 or more minutes of possessions in games played after Week 8. Vrable is 23-9 OVER in the second half of each season he has been the head coach of the Titans. He is also 12-2-1 ATS coming off a game in which he had a turnover margin of +2 or better.

JR is running hot and is already 3-1 ATS in the Bowl Games. For the current NFL season his totals have been a highly profitable 68% 19-9-1 with NFL Totals for the season. Plus, you get TWO prop bets as a free bonus.

From my predictive models, the OVER is 12-2 when the Titans gain 125 or more rushing yards in games played over the last two seasons. Henry is out and my models did not have Henry in today’s game and there is an 85% they exceed 125 rushing yards. The models also project that both teams will score 20 or more points and the Titans are 14-0 OVER in that situation.

New Mexico Bowl

8-UNIT best bet UNDER the posted total

Betting the UNDER in matchup being played on a neutral field with a total ranging between 49.5 to 56 points and both teams are averaging a solid 8.25 or more yards per pass has produced a highly profitable 24-2-1 record for 92.4% winning bets over the last 30 college football seasons and has NOT lost in the last 10 seasons posting a perfect 10-0 UNDER record.

Bet the UNDER

Middle Tennessee State vs Toledo

Noon EST, December 16, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Middle Tennessee State plus the points

MTST has had immense difficulty retaining quarterbacks this season losing two that left the team and another, whose season ended due to a leg injury. They had to turn to true-freshman Nicholas Vattiato, who is from Plantation, Florida. He is an excellent quarterback and making the most of his opportunity to step in and run the offense. Played in five games and had four starts

He Ended the regular season by completing 92 of 136 passes (67.6%) for 777 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 18 yards

He was in on 256 total snaps and graded out a winner three times and voted to the C-USA All-Freshman Team. Completed 20 of 24 passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns in win over FIU to earn the team’s offensive player of the game award. Set an MTST true freshman record in completions (34), attempts (49) and passing yards (304) against Old Dominion.

Toledo head coach Candle is just 3-12 ATS for 20% when coming off a home win over a conference rival. Toledo is 9-22 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.  

Bet MTST plus the points and sprinkle a 0.5 unit on the money line as well.

PHILADELPHIA VS MONTREAL

7:08 EST 12-15

4-Unit bet on the Montreal Canadiens using the money line

Betting on home teams that have scored two or fewer goals in three consecutive games and is now facing an opponent that has won each of their last two games by two or more goals has earned a 144-96 record for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and by averaging a +115 wager has made the dime bettor a $60K profit. The system has made the Dime bettor a 6.5K profit over the last three seasons.

Wizards vs Kings

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on the Wizards minus the points

Kings opened as 1-point favorites and now the market has moved three points through pick to make Wizards a 2-point favorite.  I fully agree with the market movement and so do my predictive models.

Betting on road teams that have lost five or more of their last seven games with a winning record on the season and facing a losing record team has done well earning a 33-9 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. Wizards have lost five of the last six games and failed to cover in all but one of them. That lone game was a push in a 116-110 road loss at Indiana. Kings have lost three straight games and have a losing 11-17 record for the season.

Nebraska – Omaha vs UNLV

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on Nebraska – Omaha plus 19.5 points.

The bet is valid if Nebraska-Omaha (NOU) is a 17.5-point or greater underdog.

When is a nine-game losing streak a good thing? When the team we are betting is in a nine-game slide and there is a 77% ATS 25-year money-making machine supporting them. This angle has hit 77% ATS winners for the last 25 seasons on a 31-10 ATS record over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS over the last five seasons and is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons. Bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost their last nine games in the month of December. The losing streak start in November, but the current game must be played in December.

Marshall vs Ohio University

7 EST 12-15

4-UNIT best bet on Marshall +3.5 points

Ohio is 1-8 ATS after scoring 60 or fewer points in their previous game spanning the last three seasons. Ohio is 19-44 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points. Marshall head coach D’Antoni is 12-4 ATS coming off a double-digit road win.

Take Marshall plus the points

LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals

10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points

The Cardinals have won all 7 of their road games by double-digits and covered the spread. At home, though, 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Plus, only the Packers had a winning record in these five home games, which the Cardinals lost 24-21 as a 6.5-point home favorite in week 8.

The Rams are looking more and more like a NFC Conference finalist. They had lost three games to the spread by a combined total of 53.5 points. They first lost at home to the Tennessee Titans, who are in the thick of the AFC playoff’s top-seed, then back-to-back road losses to divisional foe San Francisco and then the Packers. Granted, it was against the offensively challenged Jacksonville Jaguars, but last week, they righted their ship and won 37-7 and covered as 13-point favorites.

My models rank the Rams and New England tied for the best overall team in the NFL. The Rams are fifth overall in total offense, while Arizona is 13th. Arizona ranks 6th in passing while the Rams come in a 11th. The Rams rank 11th with their ground attack, but the Cardinals are a miserable 27th and this is where the monumental advantages are for the Rams tonight.

The Rams defense is incredibly good and in my opinion, monumentally underrated. They rank best against the run and pass rush per my models. The Rams will not need to bring any safeties to the line of scrimmage to stop the run and that puts immense pressure on the Arizona passing attack. Aaron Donald (709 snaps) , Jordan Fuller (774 snaps), and Jalen Ramsey (776 snaps) have all played incredibly well and consistent this season. They have the experience too knowing the meaning of this game and their drive to the NFC Championship.

Rams head coach McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after having failed to covered the number in two of his last three games. Plus, he is 21-10-1 ATS in road games against NFC conference foes.

Betting on road underdogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 of their last four games and is now facing an opponent hat has covered the number in three of their last four games has earned an incredible 27-5-1 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 19-5 ATS over the last three seasons.

Presbyterian vs Morehead State

7:00 PM EST, December 6, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

My predictive models are suggesting that 130 or more points will be scored in this game. They also project that Morehead State will shoot at least 47% from the field and Presbyterian will have fewer turnovers than Morehead State and make at least seven 3-pointers. Presbyterian is 6-0 OVER in games where they made 6 or more 3-point shots. Morehead State is 19-7 OVER the past three seasons and 75-52 OVER the past 20 seasons when they have shot 47% or better from the field. Love the OVER

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

4:25 PM EST, December 5, 2021
5-Unit Best Bet on the SF 49ers minus the points

Betting on teams that are in a conference matchup lined between the 3s and is facing an opponent, like Seattle, who has gone UNDER the posted total by a combined 35 or more points in total over their previous five games has earned a 70-33 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

Bettin on road favorites with a winning record that are facing a host that have lost four of their last five games has earned a 38-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

Eli Mitchell had 133 rushing yards last week, his fourth 100+ yard rushing game this year. Ricky Waters back in the 1992 season is last 49er rookies to turn that trick. The ground game for the 49ers has improved monumentally over the recent weeks and I believe it will only continue to get better. The 49wers also sports the best red zone efficiency in the NFL at 77% success rate. They have scored a 24 TDs on 31 trips into the red zone.

Deebo Samuel, who has emerged as one of the bigger offensive weapons from multiple positions on the field in the NFL, is expected to be out with a groin injury. Although a significant loss to the dynamic of the 49ers offense, it does not change my opinion on this game in the least. The last time Deebo was out for a game, several players stepped up their contributions. For instance, Trent Sherfield will certainly see more snaps.

Seahawks cannot run the ball with any success. For instance, they had five consecutive three-and-out possessions in Week 12 against Washington. A game they should have won, but how could they when they had just 10 first downs and less than 20 minutes of possession.  

Houston vs Oklahoma City

8:00 PM EST, December 1, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

Here is an NBA betting angle with specific parameters that has been extraordinarily consistent over 25 seasons. Bet the UNDER in a game lined between 210 and 219.5 points in a matchup of teams that struggle from long range and make no better than 33% of those shots and with both teams in the matchup having average rebound differentials between -3 and +3 for the season. Over the last 25 seasons this set of parameters has earned a 47-11 ATS record for 81% winning bets and is a perfect 16-0 over the last five seasons.

Seattle vs Washington

8:20 PM EST, November 29, 2021
10-Unit MNF Top-Rated Titan on the Seattle Seahawks

The following betting system has earned an insanely profitable 25-5 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet on losing record road teams after week 8 that are facing a host after having won two of their three games and has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season. This system is 14-2 ATS over the last five seasons.

Pete Carroll is Carroll is 9-1 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in two straight games as the coach of Seattle. He is also 16-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Seattle. Last, he is 18-5 ATS when facing struggling passing defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season as the coach of Seattle.

Seattle has scored 13 points in their last two games, both double-digit losses to the NFC West divisional rivals Arizona Cardinals (23-13) and the Green Bay Packers (17-0). The last time Seattle lost back-to-back games by double digits was in Weeks 8-9 of the 2011 season. Since returning from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has not thrown a touchdown pass for only the second time in his career. He went three consecutive games without a touchdown pass in the 2016 season.

In the 2016 season following those three games that Wilson failed to connect on a scoring touchdown, they defeated the Buffalo Bills 31-25 and pushed the line as 6-point home favorites. Going back to the 2000 season, the Seahawks regardless of who was the QB have earned a 7-3-1 ATS record for 70% winning bets.

Seattle’s defense has been playing well and ranks second in the NFL with a 19.2 yards per point allowed ratio. This ratio means that an opponent needs to gain 19.2 yards to get one point on the scoreboard. The higher the value the better the defense with numbers approaching and exceeding 20 yards per point representing elite defenses and those ratios approaching 12 or lower representing struggling defensive units. Washington ranks 28th in the NFL with a 13.8 yards per point allowed and I do see the Seattle offense having a big night. The opposite is true on the offensive side of the ball. Seattle ranks 16th with a 15.4 yards per point and Washington is at 23rd with a 16.4 yards per point ratio. Seattle is the better team on both sides of the ball and we are getting a very cheap price at pick-em.

Tulane vs Memphis

7:30 PM EST, November 27, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on Tulane plus the [points and sprinkle 0.75 UNITS on the money line

I will get right to it and start with this terrific money line betting angle that has systematically earned a 38-28 record for 58% winning bets and by averaging a whopping +200 underdog bet, the Dime Bettor has made a $47,000 profit over the last 25 seasons and earned $24,000 on a 32-35 losing record. This is the strength and value of identifying underdogs in college football that can win the game too.

From my predictive models I expect Tulane to gain a minimum of 5.0 YPPL and score 28 or more points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to a 46-15 SU record and a 50-10 ATS mark for 83.3% winners since 2013.

Bet Tulane as a 5% Best Bet

Penn State vs Michigan State

3:30 PM EST, November 26, 2021

4% Best bet on Penn State minus the points

When conference foes look to upset an alite power house program like Ohio State and fail miserably the hangover can be massive and in some games season-low performances have happened. Home dogs that played Ohio State in their previous game have gone 32-45-3 ATS for 42% wins. If our home dog lost to Ohio State in the previous game our home pup is a money-burning 12-45-3 ATS for 21% wins OR playing against these emotionally wounded home dogs have hit 79% winning bets since 1980. Over the last 10 season, these dogs are 2-14-1 ATS for just 12.5% wins and 0-11 ATS if also off an ATS double-digit loss.

UTSA vs North Texas

2:00 PM EST, November 27, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on North Texas

North Texas is 16-5 ATS off three straight wins against conference rivals. Both of these teams are running hot and it would be a shame to see UTSA’s perfect season go to the trash bin. I think they will get the win in possibly a last minute game winning score, but will not win the game by double digits.

Betting on teams that are on a three or more-game win streak and are facing a team that is on a five or more game win streak has earned a 140-116-10 ATS for 5% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our team is hosting the game, they improve to 58-39-3 for 60% winners. If our host is the dog they have earned a 25-16 record for 61% ATS winners and if our homer is a double-digit underdog they have gone 8-3 ATS for 73% winners.

Maryland vs Rutgers

Noon EST, November 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on Maryland

Maryland and Rutgers need a win to become bowl eligible. So, how do 5 win teams in the final game of the regular season perform ? Road teams sporting 5-6 records and coming off a loss are 39-21-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 5-6 record hosts that are coming off a loss are a money-burning 29-34-1 for 46% ATS last10 seasons. Both Rutgers and Maryland qualify as must-win to be bowl eligible teams.

Rutgers is 1-7 ATS for 12% wins when the current game is at home in games spanning the last 10 seasons; 3-15 ATS in home games after scoring 6 or fewer points in the previous game; 13-30 ATS in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games. Maryland is a money-making 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival.

Florida State vs Florida

Noon ET 11/27/2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

3-UNIT Florida State

Florida and FSU need a win to become bowl eligible. Road teams sporting 5-6 records and coming off a loss are 39-21-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 5-6 record hosts that are coming off a loss are a money-burning 29-34-1 for 46% ATS last10 seasons.

Florida fired their head coach Dan Mullin last Sunday and these two long-time in-state Florida rivals are heading in opposite directions. Make no mistake about it, the winner of this game, especially FSU takes the lead in on the recruiting landscape. FSU second-year head coach Mike Norvell stated "I know what this game means, and, if you don't get up for this one, then go somewhere else, go do something else, because it is not for you."

About the OVER bet now. Betting the OVER in games from week 8 on out that have a total between 56.5 and 63 points and both teams defenses are allowing between 21 and 27.5 PPG and the matchup is in a Power-5 Conference has earned an incredible 30-4 record for 88% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

Georgia vs Georgia Tech

Noon ET, November 27, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Georgia First half line minus the points

I do not remember the last time I wagered on a favorite of more than -31 points, but trust me it is rare and there are strong reasons I am betting on the Georgia Bulldogs. However, we are looking at the first half line here because of the risk that Georgia gets out to a huge lead and then looks to get their starters out of the game knowing the SEC Championship game is on deck.

Betting on the first half line with favorites of 17.5 or more points competing against a foe that scored fewer than 10 points has earned a sensational 35-11 ATS record using the first half line in games played over the last 10 seasons. With a current first half line of 20.5 points this is a great opportunity with a team that is historically one of the best over the last 2 decades at least.

Georgia’s defense has attained an incredible 31.4 defensive yards-per-point measure. That means that opponents have had to gain 31 yards to get a single point on the scoreboard. The second-best defensive unit in the nation is Penn State and they are light years behind Georgia sporting a 21.5 YPPT measure.

Buffalo vs New Orleans

8:20 PM EST, November 25, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. The Bills have lost two of three games, including a shocking 9-6 defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a surprisingly uncompetitive 41-15 drubbing at home to the Indianapolis Colts last week. QB Josh Allen has looked superb noting two games in which he averaged better than 11 yards per pass attempt and four others in which he did not gain more than 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season.

The Saints have numerous injuries, especially at the running back position. Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game and replacement Mark Ingram has been solid in his absence, but now is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Trevor Simien has been superb in replacing starting QB Jameis Winston and has thrown seven TDs over his last three games. During their three-game losing streak, the Saints have not started well scoring just 13 first half points and have scored zero points in the first quarter. I fully expect the Saints to get off to a fast start in this matchup against the Bills, who will still be hungover from the stunning and horrid defensive performance last week.

Saints are 6-0 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 27 or more points over the last two seasons and 6-0 ATS when competing against a foe that has a solid ground attack gaining an average of 4.5 yards-per-rush in games played over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 70-40 OVER when installed as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and the Saints are 40-16 OVER when installed as a underdog of not more than 7 points.

From my predictive models I expect both teams to score 20 or more points in this game. Buffalo is 12-0 OVER in games played over the last two seasons in which both teams score 20 or more points.

NY Giants vs Tampa Bay Bucs

8:20 PM EST, 11-22-2021

10-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

Well coached NFL teams that were upset in their previous game refocus on the defensive side of the game. Usually, an upset loss is caused by defensive breakdowns in coverage schemes and missed assignments plain and simple. The following NFL betting angle confirms these tendencies.

Betting the UNDER in a game between conference foes with one of the teams coming off a double-digit upset loss (team was lined as the favorite) has earned a 166-104-3 record for 62% winning bets. If the double-digit loss occurred on the road the UNDER has earned a 78-29-2 record good for 73% winning bets. Drilling down through the data and adding that the current game is at home and total is not greater than 50.5 points has earned a 42-17 record for 71.2% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Further, if our home team has the better record in the current matchup, then the UNDER is 16-6 for 73% winners.

The Giants are on a 7-0 UNDER streak when facing a defense that is allowing a minimum of 61% pass completions in games played in the second-half of each of the last two seasons. Giants are 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.

ILLINOIS (4 - 6) at IOWA (8 - 2)

Week 12 Saturday, 11/20/2021 2:00 PM EST

4-UNIT Best Bet on Illinois plus the points

9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive UNDERS and 6-0 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive UNDERS over the last three seasons. Ferentz is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa. 

Double digit underdogs of 11.5 or more points in a game with a posted total of less than 40-points are 26-12-3 ATS for 68.4% winners. If the game occurs in the Power-5 Conferences, our pup is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS. 

Michigan State vs Ohio State

Noon ET, 11-20-2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Ohio State minus the points

Ohio State (9-1, 7-0 Big Ten) is coming off its most efficient offensive performance of the season and that is just not the news that the overachieving Spartans wanted to hear. OSU had scoring touchdowns on its first six possessions in a 59-31 win against Purdue last week. MSU does have the nation’s best runner of the football in Kenneth Walker, who has gained 1,473 rushing yards including 17 TDs, and their QB Payton Thorne, who is second in the conference to OSU’s sensational CJ Stroud with 21 touchdown passes. 

Stroud has had three games in which he threw for five touchdowns without throwing an interception. OSU leads the nation scoring an average of 46.3 PPG and the MSU defense has a nearly impossible task of containing this explosive offense. 

In Week 11 and on during the regular season, teams that are ranked higher in the AP poll and are favored by 14.5 or more points are 29-1 SU and 17-11-2 ATS for 61% winners and if the game is in Week 11 and beyond, they are 26-1 SU and 17-9-1 for 67% winners. 

From the predictive models I have developed over more than two decades there is a high probability that OSU will score at least 28 points and/or gain at least 7.5 yards per play and/or gain 500 or more total offensive yards. Over the past ten seasons, OSU is 62-1 SU and 44-17-1 ATS for 72% winners when scoring 28 or more and gaining 500 or more yards. 

Iowa State vs Oklahoma

Noon EST, November 20, 2021

4-UNIT best bet on Iowa State plus the points

Campbell is 12-2 ATS off a close loss of seven or fewer points to a conference rival as the coach of ISU. 

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in Weeks 10 through end of the regular season that are off an upset road loss have earned a 86-44 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 31-16-1 ATS over the last ten seasons. 

Philadelphia vs Denver

4:25 PM EST, November 14, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

Denver is 10-4 OVER when playing a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. The OVER is 7-1 last three seasons when Denver has faced a terrible passing defense that is allowing 64% or higher pass completions in games played after Week 8.

From my predictive models we are expecting both teams to score 20 or more points. Eagles are 15-5 OVER where both teams score 20+ points and Denver is a perfect 7-0 in home games where they and their opponent both score 20 or more points. Eagles are 25-11 OVER in road games and averaging between 5.5 and 6.0 yards per play over the last three seasons.

Carolina vs Arizona

4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points

Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is completing 64% or more of their passes and is coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt has earned a 52-25 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. This angle works against Arizona and underscores the probability that Arizona will have some form of regression on offense.

Betting on road dogs that have failed to cover the number in 3 out of their last four games and facing a host that has covered the number in 3 of their last four games has earned a 38-19 ATS record good for 65.5% winners since 2014 and 10-5 ATS if our highway traveler is a double-digit underdog.

From the predictive models, we are looking for the Carolina offense to gain 125 or more rushing yards and for the Carolina defense to force two or more turnovers. In past games when the Panthers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 38-10-1 SU record and a 42-7 ATS mark good for 88% winning bets. Perfect 4-0 ATS when installed as a road double-digit underdog.

Minnesota vs LA Chargers

4:05 PM EST, November 14, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Minnesota Vikings

Betting on teams after Week 8 and in a game that is priced within 3 points on either side of pick and is coming off a SU loss, but did cover the number has earned a 122-95 ATS record for 56.2% winners. Drilling down further, if our team is on the road, the record improves to 47-20- ATS for 70% winners since 2014.

Also, teams like the Vikings that are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game and coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and facing a host that is forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game after week 8 has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winners since 2017.

Tampa Bay vs Washington

1:00 PM EST, November 14, 2011

10-UNIT Best Bet on Tampa Bay minus the points

The Bucs are rolling and with a veteran GOAT Tom Brady at the lead, they will not go into Landover, Md thinking the game is won before it is played. Since Brady arrived the Bucs are 5-1 ATS with the average margin of victory 15.7 points. Once again the Bucs defense is playing well and this is not good news for the Football Team, who has not had multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games, and have had four on the season. Only Houston is worse with give games scoring one or fewer touchdowns. 

Brady said, "I don't think there's one area we can't be better," and his teammates are focused on responding to that 36-27 loss to the Saints. "Come in and continue to put the work in every day regardless of what the outcome was in the Saints game," safety Antoine Winfield Jr. said. "Just to come back here and continue to work because we have a nice stretch ahead of us. Come out here and continue to be better and go out there and win games." When I see statements in the press like these, it immediately reflects the focus the team has to get better – not to win the Super Bowl – the Super Bowl win occurs because the focus all season has been to get better each week. 

The Bucs lead the NFL in passing offense gaining 327.5 yards per game and scoring  at 32.5 PPG. Brady has thrown throwing for 2,650 yards and a league-high 25 touchdowns through eight games. The 44-year-old GOAT, for the first time in his career, has a plethora of playmakers to connect with on the field. Receiver Mike Evans, will be the third-fastest to 70 TDs in NFL history with his next TD catch. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight ends Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate round out the incredible depth the Bucs possess. 

Betting on road favorites that allow 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a horrid defense allowing at least 27 PPG on the season has earned a 39-16-3 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five season. If our favorite is lined between 4.5 and 11.5 points the record soars to an incredible 21-4 ATS mark for 84% winning bets. 

From my predictive models one projection stands out and has a high probability of being achieved in the game. Football team is 2-12 ATS in when they have allowed 400 or more total yards in games played over the last three seasons. 

South Carolina vs Missouri

4:00 PM EST, November 13, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

SC is coming off a dramatic upset 40-17 win over SEC foe Florida installed as a 20.5-point underdog. The OVER is 16-8 for 67% winners  in games where the road team is coming off a game in which they covered the spread by 40 or more points and were installed as a double digit dog and 10-3 OVER if they were 20 or greater dogs in the previous game.

From the predictive models we learn that the OVER is 12-4 over the last three seasons and 67-10 over the last 20 seasons in games in which SC allows 28 or more points. SC is also 65-17 OVER in games in which they score 28 or more points. Missouri is 5-1 OVER this seasons, 11-4 OVER the past three seasons and 83-33 OVER the past 20 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points.

Rutgers vs Indiana

Noon EST, November 13, 2021

4% (4-UNIT)  Bet on Rutgers

Indiana is on a five-game losing streak and the magic of last season seems like it was decades ago. Coach Allen is a master motivator and one of the most respected teachers and mentors in the College ranks, but sometimes there is just too many mountains to climb over. In their last game, they were dominated on both sides of the ball in a 29-7 loss to Michigan. The loss also removed them from any chance of being bowl eligible making it even more difficult for ANY team to respond with a massive performance.

Rutgers (4-5, 1-5) is coming off a 52-3 home beat down to Wisconsin, BUT remain bowl eligible if they win two more games. During the Wisconsin loss, the team lost wide receiver and kick returner Aron Cruickshank to a season-ending injury. QB Noah Vedral, who sustained an undisclosed injury in the third quarter and did not return, will be starting in this game from all that I have read. Moreover, Vedral starting is not a condition for this play to be valid as Rutgers does possess many backups at the position that are more than ready to step and take advantage of the audition for next year. The players are Cole Snyder, Evan Simon or true freshman Gavin Wimsatt.

Betting on road teams after scoring 3 or fewer points in the first half last game and that are facing a host, who scored 9 or fewer points in their last game has produced a highly profitable 25-5-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 13-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

Michigan vs Penn State

Noon EST, November 13, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on PSU plus the points.

Michigan is just 10-23 ATS in road games and coming off a cover by double digits. PDSU head coach Franklin is 14-3 ATS coming off a road conference win and 12-4 ATS coming off a win of 17 or more points and 15-3 ATS off a road win. PSU is also 16-4 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no turnovers.

This matchup is all about the vastly under rated PSU defense that ranks in the top-5 in many of the meaningful advanced analytics. They rank 3rd nationally with a defensive 20.8 yards per point allowed, for instance, and I believe Michigan’s offense is going to have a nightmare trying to move the chains in Happy Valley, which has the best home field advantage of 6-points.

From the predictive models, Michigan is 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when committing 2 or more turnovers and 9-25 ATS when allowing 250 or more passing yards. Dotson and QB Clifford are expected to connect on deep vertical routes where the Michigan defense is the most vulnerable.

Ohio U vs Eastern Michigan

8:00 PM EST, November 9, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on EMU

EMU is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.

Ohio has not been a strong finishing team to the regular season and are just 10-22 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13. Ohio head coach Solich is 7-17 ATS in road games after being out gained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game.

From the predictive models qwe learn that Ohio is a money-burning 25 ATS this season, 3-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 40-85 ATS the last 20 seasons when allowing 28 or more points in game. EWMU is 3-3 ATS this season, 13-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 54-24 ATS over the last 20 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. 

New England vs Carolina

1:00 PM EST, November 7, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points

Christian McCaffrey is expected to return from injured reserve this week and is eligible to play in this game.  He has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and Carolina is just 1-4 in those games. McCaffrey has missed 18 of the team's past 24 games with injuries, but he is back for this game, and he is rested and healed. I expect him to be on a snap count with Chuba Hubbard, Royce Freeman and Ameer Abdullah to be actively involved in the game plan. Carolina can run different formations with and without McCaffery in the game and I do believe that alone will keep the Patriots guessing and off balance.

Zane Gonzalez, who has made 13 of 15 field-goal attempts and 13 of 14 extra points. He was 4 of 4 on field goals last week vs. Atlanta, including a career-long of 57 yards to earn NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors.

I like this bet as a 5- UNIT wager even if McCaffery is OUT for this game should there be a mishap in the warmup sessions. This play is far more about the Carolina defense matching up quite well against Mac Jones and the Patriots offense.

Carolina ran 47 rushing plays gaining 203 yards in their win against the Falcons in Week 8. The 47 rushing attempts was the fourth-highest single-game total in Panthers history and their highest since 2009. So, with McCaffery back in action, the Panthers will establish the ground attack against the Patriots run defense that ranks 16th in the league.

The Panthers have a tremendous pass rush and recorded three sacks last week and shut down a very good statistical QB in Matt Ryan. The Panthers defense ranks 2nd allowing 295.6 yards per game and their secondary is among the best. They rank third allowing just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2nd allowing 188.8 passing yards per game, and 4th with a 7.6% sack percentage.

This is a highly profitable money line betting angle that has posted a 35-9 record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the dime bettor a profit of $26,000. Bet on a team using the money line in a non-conference matchup and is coming off a road win over a divisional rival. If our team is playing at home, the record has been 23-6 for 79% winning bets.

From the predictive model, we learn that the Panthers are an incredible 54-9-2 ATS for 86% winning bets and 61-4 SU in home games scoring 24 or more points and winning the turnover battle (having fewer turnovers than the opponent) and 7-1 ATS over the last three seasons.

Bet the Carolina Panthers as a 5- UNIT Best Bet

Indiana vs Michigan

7:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4- UNIT Best Bet on the Indiana Hoosiers plus the points.

Now, that you purchased this 3-pack, I like taken a flyer on these three dogs that I just like quite a bit and doing a 0.25 unit round robin parlay. As I have stated on so many CFB shows as a host or guest over the past several weeks there have been 17 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that have WON the game this season. There were seven such dogs in 2020 and much lower number because COVID-19 eliminated so many games.  In the 2018 season there were 24 of these dogs that won outright.

Top-20 ranked favorites of 17.5 or more points that is coming off a disheartening loss as a road favorite to a ranked opponent are 2-9 ATS in their next game since the 2012 season (5-1 ATS are these dogs if their current opponent lost in a matchup of Top-10 ranked teams).

Michigan is just 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. Master coaching motivator Allen is Allen is 10-2 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of IU.

Baylor vs TCU

3:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4-Unit best Bet on TCU plus the points and sprinkle the money line too.

Here is a terrific betting angle that is bet using the money line and has made the Dime Bettor a $36,000 profit averaging a +210 underdog bet over the last five seasons. Bet on home teams after losing to the spread by 28 or more points over their last three games, is a losing team not winning more than 40% of their games on the season and now facing a winning record team.

This angle is 3-3 this season and has made that dime bettor $2,750, 12-6 making the dime bettor $25,000 over the last three seasons.

Auburn vs Texas A&M

3:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4-Unit best Bet on Auburn plus the points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line.

Aggies are a money-burning 2-10 ATS off the BYE since joining the SEC is 2012.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game forced, and with the dog coming off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers has earned an outstanding 55-20 ATS record good for 73^ winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle is a solid 8-3 ATS this season.

From my predictive models, Auburn is expected to score at least 28 points in this game and when they have scored 28 or more points in past games has earned a 4-1 ATS mark this season, 14-2 ATS 88% wins, and 125-48 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Wake Forest vs North Carolina

Noon, November 6, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on UNC plus the points

I will get to the point. UNC is 34-16 ATS for 68% winners coming off a game in which they gained 525 or more yards spanning the past three seasons. Brown is 11-3 OVER after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of UNC. 

From the predictive models, UNC is expected to gain 500 or more yards. In past games in which they did game at least 525 total yards they went 12-6-1 over the last three seasons and 43-15 ATS over the last 15 seasons. They are 15-5 gaining 525 or more yards in home games and 4-1 ATS for 80% as a DOG. 

Ohio State vs Nebraska

Noon EST, November 6, 2021

8- UNIT Best Bet Nebraska plus the points

 NU committed four turnovers in their 28-23 home loss to Purdue. Note, that they are 25-12 for 68% winners coming off a game in which they committed four or more turnovers. Calls for NU head coach Scott Frost grew louder after the loss to Purdue as his conference record dropped to 15-26 and 6-15 in the West Division of the B10. However, 17 losses have been by one score during Frost’s 4 years at the helm and definitely do not think he has lost his team even just a little bit. 

The Buckeyes may lead the nation in scoring offense averaging 47.3 PPG, but they had seven false starts in their home win over Penn State. The Buckeyes were 1-for-6 in the red zone against the second-best defense in the nation based on my numbers. PSU QB Clifford shredded the Ohio State secondary – as I had predicted in my top-rated 5-UNIT best bet winner last week – for 361 passing yards. The OSU came to the aid of the sputtering offense with a huge game-changing 57 yard TD fumble return. Bottom line, PSU had the game plan to upset the Buckeyes and you can bet Frost and his staff have been studying that in great detail. 

Frost is 6-0 ATS after losing 5 or 6 of their last seven games. After throwing just three interceptions in the first eight games, NU QB Adrian Martinez, threw four interceptions in the loss to Purdue. Frost was a starting QB for Nebraska. He knows the ups and downs of being a QB at the highest level of NCAAF play and I am looking for Martinez to have a huge game. Remember, that OSU secondary has been attacked this season and Martinez and wideouts have the skillsets to exploit that secondary all game. 

Betting against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in a game with two solid scori ng defenses allowing between 16 and 21 points per game and with the favorite coming off back to back games scoring at least 20 points in each of the last two games in the first half has earned a 42-14 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 30 seasons, 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last five seasons, and 17-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Liberty vs Ole Miss Rebels

Noon ET, November 6, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on Mississippi minus the points. 

This is the second time that Liberty will take on an SEC foe. The first one was a 59-0 loss to Auburn as a 28.5 point dog back in week 11 of the 2018 season. Liberty has without doubt become a much stronger football program since then, but they do not have the depth, especially on defense to contain the high-powered fast paced offensive style of play that Kiffin employs. Moreover, this marks the third game they have been ranked and favored by single digits to an unranked foe. They are 2-0 ATS in the previous two games. 

From my predictive models, there is a high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points. They are 5-1 ATS this season, 14-5 the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points. They are 8-0 ATS in games outgaining their opponent by 200 or more yards and scoring 28 or more points. 

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans

4:25 PM EST, October 31, 2021

4% bet UNDER the total

Betting the Under with road teams that has a defense allowing 60% pass completions and higher and is coming off a gme allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in two straight games has earned a 50-14 UNDER record for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

The Saints are 12-3 UNDER coming off a road game and did not cover the spread as a favorite.

Form the predictive models, the UNDER is 14-6-1 for 70% winners when they have rushed for 125 or more yards and held their opponent to fewer than 100 yards in games played over the last three seasons.

Penn State vs Ohio State

7:30 PM EST, October 30, 2021

5-UNIT Contrarian Game of the Month on the Penn State Nittany Lions

 The line for this huge showdown in the Big Ten opened with the Buckeyes installed as 16.5 point home favorites and has seen steady one-sided action on the Buckeyes propelling the line to 19.5 points. Penn State lost to Illinois last week in an FBS-record nine overtimes, 20-18. The Nittany Lions have now lost two in a row after winning their first five, though both losses were decided by three or fewer points. 78% of the tickets are on the PSU based on the 12 sportsbooks I track and that is just a sign of recency bias and irrational exuberance that lends itself to this contrarian bet. 

Here is a contrarian style betting system that has earned an incredible 29-6 ATS record over the last five seasons and is 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on dogs between 10 and 21 points that have not covered the spread in two of their last three games and is facing an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last seven games. 

If the hot running high powered favorite is coming off back-to-back wins of 35 or more points and now facing a team that has lost to the spread in 2 of their last three games, the record is a horrid 2-9 ATS. 

Betting on teams coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored are a highly profitable 39-14-1 ATS for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

There have been 17 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that have the game straight up this season. Just 7 such monster dog wins in 2020 due to COVID reducing the overall number of games played. 108 17.5 points that won outright since the start of the 2016 season. In Week 8 of this season Illinois was a 18 point dog to PSU, Rice was a 24 point dog to UAB and won 30-24, and New Mexico defeated Wyoming 14-3 as a 30-point road underdog. 

Here is a money betting system that underscores the contrarian nature of these types of games and why they often grade extremely strong by my predictive models. Bet on a game after game number 7 with an offensive team averaging 340 to 400 yards-per-game and is now facing an opponent coming off a game in which they gained over 475 total yards and is an excellent offensive team averaging more than 440 total yards per game. If you had bet on these situations over the last 10 seasons using the money the money line, you would have gone 29-31 for just 48% winners, but by averaging a whopping +285 underdog bet, you would have profited 50 units in winnings. 

Ohio State’s defense is vulnerable to the PSU offense exploiting their secondary. Dotson has not caught a TD pass in two games, but I would be shocked if he did not catch at least one in this game. Dotson and the Buckeyes Garrett Wilson are the only players in the Big Ten with at least 550 receiving yards (552) and six touchdown catches. 

Here’s the deal. I love Penn State’s defense and they do rank 3rd in the nation and tops in the Big Ten with a 22.0 yards per point ratio (YPPT). Georgia is having a historic season and rank best defense with an incredible 31.8 YPPT ratio. Clemson is second with a 23.2 YPPT ratio. I know OSU has three weapons in Wilson and Chris Olave and true freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson, who leads the country average g 8.8 yards-per-rush. 

The Buckeyes have not had a turnover in three consecutive games and somehow the Lions defense is going to force at least two of them based on my predictive models. Since 2016, the Buckeyes have played three straight games committing not one turnover but are 0-2 ATS the following game. The last time that happened for the Buckeyes, Penn State came to Columbus and won 27-26 in week 5 of the 2018 season.

SMU vs Houston

7:00 PM EST, October 30, 2021

4-UNIT best Bet OVER the posted total

This is a monster game for these members of the AAC tonight. The first in a series of anticipated collisions atop the American Athletic Conference standings will take place Saturday night when the Houston Cougars host the 19th-ranked SMU Mustangs. SMU (7-0, 3-0) throttled Tulane 55-26 on Oct. 21 and is seeking its second 8-0 start in three years after finishing the 2019 season 10-3. SMU cannot look past Houston to their date November 20 against No. 2-ranked Cincinnati next week. They also have challenges to remain undefeated with two of their next three on the road. 

Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 29 touchdowns this season, which is tied for most in FBS with Western Kentucky's Bailey Zappe this season. It is the most touchdown passes thrown through seven games by any AAC quarterback since the conference's founding in 2013. Now that speills high octane offense too. 

Head Coach Holgorsen is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached

Georgia vs Florida

TIIA Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

4-UNIT Best bet on Georgia minus the points

Stetson Bennett has been named the starter at QB for the bulldogs and former-starter JT McDaniels upgraded to available for this game in Jacksonville, FL. 

Betting on favorites of 10 to 21 points that are coming off a game in which 60 or more points were scored and after coming off back-to-back games in which seven or fewer points were allowed in the first half has earned a 76-37-1 SATS record for 68% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. 

My research simply states that we may be watching one of the best CFB ever or at least the last 2 decades. Even though both teams were idle last week, Georgia and Florida enter their annual showdown heading in opposite directions. The Bulldogs have been dominant, outscoring their seven opponents -- including four who were ranked -- 269-46, culminating with their 30-13 win over then-No. 11 Kentucky on Oct. 16.

The play of Georgia's defense has emerged as one of the biggest storylines of the season nationally. The Bulldogs have given up a national-best 6.6 points per game, nearly eight points fewer than Michigan, which ranks second at 14.3 points per game. Georgia also ranks first nationally in total defense (208.3 ypg) and first downs allowed (84), in addition to ranking second in rushing defense (63.4 ypg) and passing defense (144.9 ypg).

Meantime, Florida is coming off a 49-42 loss against LSU on Oct. 16. The Tigers rushed for 321 yards on 45 attempts, an average of more than seven yards a carry. LSU amassed 454 yards of total offense against the Gators, who lost for the third time in their past five games since opening 2-0.

True freshman tight end Brock Bowers - who leads the Bulldogs in receptions (25), yards (416) and receiving touchdowns (6) -- and redshirt freshman receiver Ladd McConkey, who has 17 catches for 295 yards and two scores, have emerged as the team's top receivers.

The Gators' question at quarterback stems from their season-opening starter, junior Emory Jones, being inconsistent. Jones started in the 49-42 loss to LSU, but he was pulled in favor of freshman Anthony Richardson, who led the Gators into the end zone on four straight possessions in the second half. However, they both threw two interceptions.

Bennett has started the past three games and has played in the past six. He's completed 57-of-82 passing for 996 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He's also had 19 carries for 148 yards on the ground. 

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma

3:30 PM EST,  Octobwer 30, 2021

4- UNIT Best Bet on Texas Tech plus the points

This is one oof those dogs I have referenced on many shows this CFB season. There have been 14 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that won the game SU. This monumental upset occurs every season averaging 14 times. This year I have my 5- UNIT SEC game of the Month on Texas A&M in their win over then-No. 1 Alabama. I nor anybody else on the planet knows when these major upsets will take place, but this one is certainly worth a sprinkle of no more than 1- UNIT using the money line. 

Texas Tech lost their head coach Matt Wells after a very horrid stretch in which Tech allowed 70 to the Longhorns and 52 to TCU at home two weeks ago. This past week Tech blew a 24-10 half time lead. Teams and their players have pride and motivation to respond to adversity – or they simply would not be playing football at the highest level. So, I think former OC Sonny Cumbie will get his team fully motivated to play their best and mpost physical game this season. Last, if you take away the 76-0 win against FCS Western Carolina, the Sooners’ average score in their seven FBS games this season has been by a margin of eight points and 37-29. 

From my predictive model, Tech is 12-6 ATS over the L3 seasons and 150-64 ATS L15 seasons in games scoring 28 or more points. Let’s see what happens here as the models are on Tech and yes they do know this is the first week having a new head coach. 

Atlanta vs Houston

8:09 PM EST, October 26, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the OVER

Betting the UNDER in October games in road games with one of the teams coming off two or more consecutive wins and the game has a total between 8.5 and 10-points has earned a 120-65 record for 65% winning bets spanning the past 25 playoff seasons. 

Braves are 22-12 UNDER for 65% winning bets in road games when facing a team with a winning record this season. 

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points

49ers coming off the BYE and that is always a good thing for bettors to back knowing that Shanahan is 5-0 ATS coming off three losses. Plus, Colts on a 3 game ats win streak while the 49ers are on a three game ATS losing streak. Teams that are on a 3 or more-game ATS losing streak that are facing a foe on a 3 or more-game ATS win streak are 27-14 for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in a prime time slot, these teams are 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

Do not be misled by the Colts win over Houston. The Colts led the Texans by just 16 yards at the half and had a suspect 10-3 lead. Texans fumbled the ball away near midfield leading to a Colts score. 

Despite the 49ers not having Garoppolo at the helm the 49ers lead the NFL averaging 7.3 yards gain after the catch. They rank 23rd averaging 5.8 air yards per catch, which is the distance form the line of scrimmage to the point on the field where the receiver catches the ball. So, with Garoppolo on the injured list, the offense under Trey Lance was reduced to a dink and dunk scheme. Now, he is back today, the 49ers full offensive playbook will be available, and I believe it will have a high dose of vertical crossing routes. 

49ers will be effective with their ground attack, and this opens up play action, which they have run only 51 times this season. They rank 15th in play action pass plays and when Garoppolo is in platy action he becomes so much better. 

From the predictive models, we learn that San Fran is 9-1 ATS in home games when gaining 250 or yards of total offense and scoring more than 24 points in games played over the last five seasons. 

Washington vs Green Bay

1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Best bet on the Football team plus the points

Washington has allowed 30 or more points in four consecutive games, which matches a franchise record done twice before in the 1954 and 2020 seasons. However, note that teams that have allowed 30+ points in three or more consecutive games in week 6 or later are a solid investment returning a 37-19 ATS record for 67% winning bets sine 1990 and 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets. 

Packers are just 9-22 ATS when facing a terrible defense that is allowing 6 or more yards per play on the season. Washington HC Rivera is 9-1 ATS in a road game and has failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games for his career. 

Kansas City vs Tennessee

1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Best bet on the Chiefs minus the points

Betting on favorites that are facing a team that is coming off 3 or more consecutive OVER games and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game has earned a 47-11 ATS record good for 77% wining bets over the last five seasons and has earned a 22-6 ATS record over the last three seasons. 

Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Reid is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or fewer points in the last game. 

From the predictive side of things we know that the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed no more than 250 net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons. 

Carolina vs NY Giants

1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Bet OVER the Total

Carolina is 38-19 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. They are also 34-18 OVER after a playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored. 

Despite the large numbers of Giant injuries, the predictive models show a high probability that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points and that puts the final score above the current 42.5-point total pretty easily. 

USC vs Notre Dame

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

The total for this game of 59 points and with the Irish favored by 7 points implies a 33-26 Notre Dame home win. My models underscore the probability that these two teams will score often and that it will take at least 34 points to win this game. The Irish are 15-8 OVER when they have scored 28 or more points in home games spanning the past five seasons and 25-12-1 OVER with head coach Kelly dating back to the start of the 2010 season. Plus, a perfect 10-0 OVER under Kelly in games in which both teams have scored 28 or more points. USC is 11-1 OVER in games in which they and their opponents both scored more than 28 points. The OVER is 18-1 when USC has allowed 31 or more points.

West Virginia vs TCU

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2021

4-Uni Bet on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points

Both teams have had disappointing starts to their seasons. No one thought WVU would be 2-4 through 7 weeks and would share the last place with Kansas and Kansas State. TCU is fresh off a 52-31 loss to Oklahoma in Norman, but had a career-best performance from QB Max Duggan and WR Quentin Johnston. Duggan injured his foot, but has been cleared to start in this game.

West Virginia ranks in the bottom half of the conference in most significant offensive categories, including rushing offense (111.8 yards per game, last in the B12).

The Mountaineers' problem running the ball is gives TCU a monumental advantage at the line of scrimmage. Leddie Brown ran for 1,010 yards last season and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection, is rushing for an average of just 70.3 yards per game this season. The offensive line run blocking has been terrible to say the least and they are not getting a push down field or maintaining blocks long enough for Brown to shoot through the gaps.

From the predictive models, TCU is projected to pass for an average of at least 10 yards per pass attempt and score at least 28 points. In past games over the last 5 seasons, TCU is 24-13 ATS for 65% when scoring 28 or more points. They are 8-1-1 ATS in games scoring 28+ and averaging 10 or more YPPA over the last five seasons.

New Mexico vs Wyoming

3:30 October 23, 2021

4-UNIT BET on the New Mexico Lobos plus the points

Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS coming off a game in which 24 or fewer points were scored. Wyoming was blanked by Fresno State 17-0 last week. Wyoming 1-5 ATS off a game scoring three or fewer points. 

There may be as many as six different quarterbacks taking snaps in this game as both coaches attempt to get anemic offenses moving on the field. Low totals such as this one at 40.5/41 points makes it so much easier for a double digit underdog to cover the number. The market has this game as an implied 30-10 Wyoming win and I do not think Wyoming will get more than 27 in this matchup.

Betting on road dogs that have allowed 31 or more points in three straight games and are facing a foe that was defeated by 17 or more points in their last game has earned a highly profitable 60-24 ATS for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

California vs Colorado

3:30 PM EST, October 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the California Golden Bears minus the points

Colorado is just 16-36 after two consecutive games rushing the ball for 125 or fewer yards and 19-42 ATS coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnover. Cal head coach Wilcox is 15-5-1 ATS off three consecutive conference games.

From my predictive models we learn that Cal is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 101-48-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points in a game. Cal is 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining 400 or more total yards as well.

Atlanta vs LA Dodgers

Game-3 NLCS

5:08 PM EST, October 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on the LA Dodgers

2% Best Bet UNDER 7.5 runs
NO PARLAY

The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the hill and he has dominated the Braves sporting a 3-0 record in 6 career starts, 3.06 ERA, and a 0.934 WHIP. In his only previous start against the Braves this season he dominated allowing two earned runs over seven innings pitched including five Ks. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.87 ERA and a 1.022 WHIP, a 2-1 team record, including 20 Ks over 15.2 innings of work. In day starts, his team and personal record is 5-1 sporting a 2.45 ERA and a 1.242 WHIP including 34 Ks over 33 innings of work. In home starts he is 11-2 and the Dodgers 14-6 (blown saves) with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.966 including 134 Ks spanning 127.3 innings of work.

Teams that lose the first two games of a series and now installed as home favorites of -150 or more, the UNDER is 7-3 for 70%. Buehler is 32-16 UNDER in home games pitching against teams that average 7 or more strikeouts per game for his career.

From the predictive side of things, my models, predict that the Dodgers will score first. Note that teams starting a pitcher, who has not lost to the opponent in any previous matchup and installed as -170 favorites or greater, are 5-1 SU. If the starter has 3 or more matchup wins and zero matchup losses, that home team, regardless of favorite or underdog, is 5-0.

Player prop bets for 0.75 units: Buehler will have more than 5.5 strikeouts getting +100 money at Draft Kings.

1.0 units on Dodgers -0.5 runs -110 first five innings

0.25 that Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases paying -105 money at DraftKings

0.25 units that one of the teams will not score +400. Obviously, I think that is possible for the Braves not to score.

Seattle vs Pittsburgh

8:20 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

This total has moved 6 points lower since the preseason price was set at 48 points by the West Gate Super Book. The movement is based on the news surrounding the matchup and dominated by the absence of Russell Wilson from the lineup. Even with him out of the game, the models clearly show a high probability that Seattle will be effective on offense and will score points.

Pete Carroll is 22-6 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points for his coaching career at Seattle. He is also 54-33 OVER following a game in which his offense gained six or more yards per play and 33-15 OVER in non-conference matchups.

From the predictive models, we learn that the OVER is 11-2 over the last seasons in games that the Steelers gained at least 300 passing yards and gained at least 100 rushing yards.

Bet the OVER

Dallas vs New England

4:25 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

Betting the OVER with any team that is coming off a win, but failed to cover the spread and now facing an opponent coming off a home SU win has earned a highly profitable 45-11-1 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the team in question, which is New England, is the home team, then the OVER gets even better with a 30-7 record for 82% winning bets.

Dallas head coach McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in a road game and facing an excellent passing team that completes an average of 64% of their attempts.

With a total of 50 points and Dallas favored by three points implies a 26.5 to 23.5. My predictive models confirm a very high probability that both teams will score at least 21 or more points. Dallas is a perfect 12-0 OVER in games in which they and the opponent each scored 21 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.

Arizona vs Cleveland

Week 6

4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points

The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries.

Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record.

From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons.

Houston vs Indianapolis

Week 6 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

I will not waste a second of time with this one. This betting angle has earned a 57-23 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet the OVER with any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in a matchup of teams winning no more than 25% of their games on the season. Tis angle has produced a 4-1 OVER record this season and 24-9 OVER 83% winning record spanning the past five seasons.

From the predictive models, we learn that the Colts are expected to score 27 or more points, gain at least 6 yards per play, and gain over 400 total yards. In past games when the Colts have scored 27 or more points the OVER has earned a 10-5 record for 67% winners spanning the last three seasons, 17-7 OVER the past 5 seasons, and 44-15-1 OVER spanning the past 10 seasons. IN past games in which the Colts gained at least 6 YPPL and gained over 400 total yards, the OVER has earned a 24-11 OVER record over the past 10 seasons. When the Colts have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an 8-1 OVER record over the past five seasons.

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

Green Bay vs Chicago

1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points

Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line.

The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements.

The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet.

Kansas City vs Washington

1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points

Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season.

Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games.

Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Mississippi vs Tennessee

7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee plus the points

I’ll get right under the hood of this money-making machine NCAAF Betting angle. Betting on any team in a game lined between 3.5 points on either side of pick, and is facing a decent team outscoring their opponents by an average of 7 or more PPG and are coming off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points in two consecutive games has earned a 44-14-2 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.

Here is a second betting angle that has produced 80% winning bets on a 31-8 ATS record spanning the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on two consecutive wins of 10 or more points over conference foes and in a matchup of winning programs sporting win percentages between 60 and 85% for the season.

From my predictive models, Tennessee is expected to score 27 or more points and win the turnover battle. In past home games, Tennessee is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections.

Bet Tennessee as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

Iowa State vs Kansas State

7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on Kansas State plus the points

I will be sprinkling the money line on this bet. So, bet a 4% amount taking the points and then add no more than 0.75 amount using the money line.

From my predictive models, K-State is projected to contain ISU to fewer than 150 rushing yards and win the turnover battle. In past home games, K-State is 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections. When installed as a home dog, K-State is 5-1 SU and ATS over the past five seasons meeting or exceeded this pair or performance measures.

ISU head coach Campbell is 0-7 ATS coming off three games gaining 450 or more-total yards in each one. K-State is 22-6-1 ATS after two consecutive games in which they failed to gain more than 125 rushing yards.

Bet K-State as a 4% Best bet and add no more than a 0.75 bet amount using the money line.

Rutgers vs Northwestern

Noon EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on Northwestern plus the points

Betting homme underdogs that are facing an opponent that has allowed 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last two games has earned an outstanding 50-24-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Drilling down a bit further, we learn that when the matchup is between same conference foes, the record improves to 43-20 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Rutgers lost a tough-fought game 20-13 loss at Michigan on Sept. 25 but then followed that with horrid showings at home by dropping a 52-13 decision to Ohio State and a 31-13 setback to Michigan State. Rutgers is not playing well on both sides of the ball, and especially in the secondary where they allowed 588 total yards including TD catches of 63 and 65-yards and a 94-yard TD run to MSU.

Northwestern has played poorly as well, but have not made anywhere close to the number of mental mistakes that Rutgers has made. Bet Northwestern plus the points.

Clemson vs Syracuse

7:00 PM EST, October 15, 2021

4% Best Bet on Clemson minus the points

The current line of -13.5 and 44.5 total points implies the market stating the final score will by 29-16 Clemson win. My predictive models also expect Clemson to score at least 31 points. Clemson is 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS when scoring 31 or more points in games played over the last three seasons and 12-3 ATS for 80% in road games and scoring 31 or more points spanning the past five seasons.

Betting on road favorites from 10 to 21.5 points that are facing a host coming off one or more ats wins has earned a 85-39-2 ATS record over the last five seasons for 70% winning bets.

Bet Clemson minus the points, currently -13.5 and good to bet up to an including – 15.5.