Texas vs. TCU
7:00 PM EST, March 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on Texas -7.5 points

The regular-season finale for both teams in this B-12 matchup. Texas has struggled with consistent ball-handling all season and ranks 195th with a 0.934 assist-to-turnover ratio. Despite their troubles holding on to the ball, TCU ranks 334th in defensive assists-to-turnover ratio. Texas will look like an elite passing team such as Iowa and others matched up against a very weak TCU defense. 

The Texas defense is the engine of the team. They are aggressive and rank 24th with an outstanding 0.757 defensive assist-to-turnover ratio. TCU is going to struggle against this style of defense and look for at least five more turnovers than their season average of 13.8 turnovers-per-game, based on the machine learning applications. Further, TCU is 14-26 ATS in games in which their opponent committed fewer than 14 turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS hosting a guest that is averaging 21 or more three-point shot attempts this season. Texas has averaged 24 3-point shot attempts on the season.  

Michiagn vs Michigan State
4:30 PM EST, March 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on Michigan -7 points

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won at least 80% of their games on the season, are coming off a home win against a conference foe, and facing a conference foe winning 51 to 60% of their games has erned a 73-33-3 ATS record for 59% winning records over the past five seasons.

Michigan is 12-1 ATS when facing a team that averages just 6 or fewer steals-per-game this season.

From the machine learning applications, we learnm that there is a high probability that Michigan will score a minimum of 75 points. Michigan is 8-0 ATS when scoring 75 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. MSU is 0-7 ATS when allowing 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.

ELON vs. James Madison
CAA Quarterfinals
2:30 ET, march 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on James Madison – 4 points

JMU has won nine of their last 11 games and are the top-seed with Northeastern the second-seed and both teams having identical 8-2 conference records. ELON had a shortened regular season, but amn amazing roller coaster ride losing eight straight games and then starting the current 5-game win streak and covered the spread in all five games. During the losing streak ELON shot 38% or wrose in six of the games. During the five-game win streak they have shot not lower than 45% from the field.

ELON started Buford, Hannah, McIntosh, Ndugba, and Wright to start the 5-game win streak and that has been the starting lineup in each of the five wins. McIntosh is the energy that fuels ELON scoring 15.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 2.4 APG. Elon, however, lost two back-to-back games to James Madison at the Atlantic Union Bank Center, which is hosting the CAA Tournament.

ELON is 0-8 ATS on the road or neutral court setting in a game with a total between 140 and 150 points. JMU is 6-0 ATS after having lost tow of their last three games.

Duke vs North Carolina
6:00 PM EST, March 6, 2021
10-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER 149-points

Currently, and in my opinion, Duke would get an invite to the NCAA Tournament. And a loss to UNC today, would require them to run the slate in the ACC Tournament . The latter is highly unlikely and for that reason and many others, Duke must play focused defense with excellent defensive rebounding for 40-minutes and not get into a shoot-out with UNC.

Duke does shoot the ball well and ranks 42nd with a 54% effective FG percentage, but they are not good, in fact, horrid ranking 336th with a 0.232 free throws attempts to field goals attempted ratio. UNC does not shoot the ball well, but they are the second best offensive rebounding team in the nation. They get the offensive board on 39.6% of their missed shots.

Duke has been playing much better of late and rank 16th in current momentum attributed to a 9th best ranking in second-chance scoring opportunities. Duke has been playing better on the road than at home too. I expect the pace of play to be much slower than what UNC has averaged on the season.

Krzyzewski is 18-7-1 UNDER when on the road and coming off a road game in which they and their opponent scored at least 75 points. Williams is 19-8-1 UNDER cpoming off a tough loss of no more than three points to a conference foe.

Florida State vs Notre Dame

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on FSU – 6.5 points

My opponent-adjusted power ratings illustrate and underscore the major mismatch of this ACC game. FSU is the 8th best team in the nation and Notre Dame is ranked 75th. Further, with a 9-14 SU record, Notre Dame has very little incentive or motivation knowing that they have little or no chance to advance to the NCAA Tournament.

FSU ranks 15th in scoring offense averaging 79.9 PPG and will have little trouble, based on my machine learning applications, exceeding 81 points in this game. FSU is 8-1 ATS when scoring 81 or more points this season and 117-12 SU and 81-25-3 ATS for 76.4% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

FSU has a defense that at times during games forgets to play defense. However, Notre Dame’s defense ranks among the worst in the nation as evidenced by a 1.67 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 345th nationally. This ratio means that Notre Dame’s opponents had 1.67 assists for every turnover they committed and could easily move the ball from side-to-side and find the best percentage shot available.

FSU is coming off a blowout 93-64 win over Boston College and covered the spread as 19-point home favorites. Notre Dame is coming off their fourth straight loss and to the spread with an 80-69 uninspired defeat at the hands of NC State as a 3.5-point favorite.

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 10-points that won at home by 10 or more points in their previous game and now facing a host that is off an upset loss as a favorite has earned bettors of this system a profit-making 74-42-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Georgetown vs Connecticut

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Georgetown +9.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Georgetown is heating up and maybe peaking at just the right time under Hall-of-Famer head coach Patrick Ewing. They have won and covered four of their last five games with wins over Butler, Xavier, DePaul, and Seton Hall. The lone loss was against these same Connecticut Huskies and know that Georgetown is 6-0 ATS this season playing with revenge.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Georgetown is 7-0 ATS this season when scoring 71 or more points and their opponent commits at least 12 turnovers. Over the last 15 seasons, this combination of performance measures has produced a highly profitable 128-19 SU record and 96-35-7 ATS mark good for 73.3% winning bets.

Loyola-Maryland vs Navy

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Loyola-Maryland +4.5 points and sprinkle a little more on the money line.

This is matchup in the quarterfinals of the Patriot League Tournament. Loyola is led by three seniors in Santi Aldama, Luke Johnson, and Isaiah Hart. Navy is the top-seed in this tournament, but make no mistake about it, Loyola is fully capable of getting the upset win. The trio of seniors as accounted for 47.5% of the offensive production for the season. In addition, they have stepped up their games and floor leadership by accounting for 58% of the offensive production in the last. Five games. Aldama is the best player of the trio and is averaging a team-high 21.4 PPG and 10.1 rebounds-per-game.

The COVID-19 protocols have compounded the Navy’s problems with guard Cam Davis listed as questionable for this game. He is averaging a team-high 17.1 PPG including 2.8 assists-per-game, and 2.7 rebounds-per-game, and the Navy bench is not deep enough to offset the loss of his production at both ends of the court.

The pivot for this game centers on 70 based on my machine learning applications that project Navy will not score more than 70 points. Loyola is 0-9 SU when they have allowed more than 70-points and a perfect 4-0 when they have allowed fewer than 70 in games played this season. They are 30-14-2 ATS in road games and scoring 65 or more points over the last 10 seasons.

Middle Tennessee State vs Florida Atlantic
6:00 ET, March 5, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Middle Tennessee State +10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 20 points that is coming off three consecutive losses to conference foes and facing an opponent coming off a 20 or more-point  win over a conference rival has earned a profit-making 53-24-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.

FAU is a money-burning 11-36 ATS facing offenses that are averaging 64 or fewer PPG. FAU is 20-48 ATS after having won three of their last four games.

Portland vs Santa Clara
11:59 PM EST, March 4, 2021
4% Best Bet on Portland +14-points

This matchup is in the first round of the West Coast Tournament being held at Orleans Plaza, NV.  Simply stated, my machine learning applications and analytical comparisons between these two teams conclude that Santa Clara should not be favored by this many points and more likely that this game ends in a single-digit margin.

Betting on road teams of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by at least six points in three consecutive games has earned bettors a solid 201-137-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Santa Clara is just 5-15-1 ATS after a game in which they covered the spread over the last two seasons. Santa Clara head coach Sendek is just 5-19 ATS when facing excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 77% of their free-throw attempts.

At the end of the day, this is too many points and on top of it, Santa Clara’s guard Ahmed Ali is questionable with an Achilles injury.

St. Joesphs vs Massachusetts
A-10 Tournament, Secon Round, Robins Center, Richmond, VA

1:00 PM EST, March 4, 2021

4% Best bet on the St. Joes +3 points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line, but omnly if the line is +3 or more.

The St. Joes basketball team must be enjoying the city of Richmond quite a bit having knocked off Richmond University as 14.5 point dogs and are now coming off an upset win over LaSalle. My analytics say they make it three winning upsets in a row.

UMASS and St. Joes play at a fast pace with both rankings in the top-50 nationally. However, the faster pace favors St. Joes given their edge in positive momentum coming into this game. They have played their best basketball as a team right now and rank 35th in consistency ratings.

From the machine learning predictive applications, we learn that St. Joes is 70-35 ATS in road games and scoring between 75 and 81 points over the last two seasons. In addition, 45-24-1 ATS in road games where both they and their opponent exceeded 75 points.

Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers
Well Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
7:00 PM EST, March 3, 2021
4% NBA Best Bet on the 76ers +3.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

The best in the West takes the best in the East and is the last game for each team ahead of the All-Star break.  The 76ers lost inexplicably lost to the Cleveland Cavs, but bounced back with their best team performance of the season. The Sixers played a stellar all-around game in a 130-114 win over the visiting Indiana Pacers on Monday. Shake Milton gave Philadelphia a spark off the bench with 26 points versus the Pacers. Joel Embiid added 24 points and 13 rebounds, Furkan Korkmaz contributed 19 points and Ben Simmons had 18 in a balanced effort. The bench posted a season-best 67 points as the Sixers improved their home record to an Eastern Conference-best 15-3.

76ers are 20-4 ATS in home gamesd when facing explosive teams that are scoring 110 or more points-per-game ovcer the last two seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 30-1 SU and 26-5 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games when they have scored 111 or more points and held their opponent to 35% shooting from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons.

NC State vs Notre Dame
7:00 ET, March 3, 2021
4% Best bet on Notre Dame -2.5 points

Notre Dame has several team angles supporting this play that was produced by my machine learning applications. Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS wjhen playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60% in games played over the last three seasons; head coach Brey is 19-7 ATS when facing opponents with a winning record not exceeding 60%.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Notre Dame is predicted to shoot at least 48% from the field. In past games when Notre Dame has made 48% or better form the field has earned a 115-52-4 ATS record over the last 15 seasons and when NC State has allowed an opponent 48% or better shooting has been a money-burning 9-21-1 ATS in games played over the last three seasons.

Oregon State vs Utah
7:00 ET, March 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on Utah -3.5 points

Here are some quick hitters supporting Utah.
Utah is 28-11-2 ATS in home games and after the 15th game of the regular season when facing a decent shooting free team that is making at least 72%. They are 46-26 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games and 31-15-1 ATS for 67% winning bets when revenging a same season loss.

Oregon State is 15-33 ATS after two consecutive wins to conference foes.

Utah head coach is 31-18 ATS revenging a same -season loss and 36-16 ATS reveging any loss (same season or not) in which his team scored 60 or fewer points.

From the machine learning applications, wqe learn that Utah is 24-3 SU and 20-5-2 ATS for 80% winning bets when making 79% or more of their free throws and committing 13 or fewer turnovers in home games played over the last 10 seasons.

Fort Wayne vs Cleveland State
7:00 PM EST, March 2, 2021
Horizon Conference Quarterfinals
8-UNIT Best bet on Cleveland State -7.5 points

Wright State  and Cleveland State are the giants in the Horizon Conference this season. Both teams sport 16-4 conference records with CSU is the No 1 seed. Make no mistake about it, Wright State is the best team by a large margin.

Fort Wayne is the 10-seed and defeated Wisconsin-Green Bay 89-84 as 5.5-point underdogs. Fort Wayne plays at an average D-1 clip ranking 146th averaging 70.4 possesssions-per-40-minutes. CSU is ranked 228th averaging 69 possessions-per-40-minutes. That ranking is a bit misleading as they only average 1.5 fewer possessionos than Fort Wayne and reflects the team density in this metric.

CSU has a monster advantage on the offensive end. They will take a lot of mid-range shots knowing they rank 17th nationally and will be going against a Fort Wayne defense that ranks 316th defending mid-range shots. This matchup, alone, projects to a double-digit CSU win.

CSU’s junior guard Tre Gomillion is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. He is third-high on the team averaging 9.5 PPG. If he is unable to go tonight, there are several good guards ready to jump off the bench and contribute. Alec Oglesby is one of those players. He is a 6-5 freshman from The Rock School in Gainesville, FL and has the skillset to step up large. I would not be surprised if he ended up being the high-scorer for CSU in this game.

Arkansas vs South Carolina
6:30 ET, March 2, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 157 points.

Arkansas needs to win one of their two remaining regular-season games to lock in the No 2-seed in the SEC Tournament. They have been scorching hot in February and have won nine consecutive conference games including wins over then-No. 10 Missouri and then-No. 6 Alabama. This is a spot that a juggernaut, like Arkansas, can experience some serious regression in performance. I am not suggesting a bet on SC, but rather the Arkansas offense that ranks 35th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency measures may play like the 100th ranked team.

Betting the ‘UNDER’ in home games with a total between 150 and 159.5 points is playing their third game of the week, and have lost four of their last five games has earned a 138-78-3 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.

SC had lost four games in a row until they knocked off Georgia in a 91-70 road win and covered as 5-point underdogs. However, SC is 15-5 UNDER following a double-digit road win.

No 3 Baylor vs No 6 West Virginia
5:00 ET, March 2, 2021
8-UNIT Best bet on West Virginia + 4-points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

In this mtachup WVU has the majority of advantages at both ends of the court. They have played a tougher schedule ranking 10th as compared to Baylor’s 94th ranking in this category. No doubt West Virginia has a ton of positive momentum coming into this game and are at the top od their game right nowBaylor has been winning of late, but their efficiency measures had been deteriorating ahead of the Kansas loss. WVU is a much more consistent team week in and week out. Most importantly, WVU likes to play faster than Baylor, who will not be able to withstand the WVU offensive assault.

Baylor has played their worst games on the road this season and just because you won a game and covered the spread does not always translate into an ‘A-grading’.

Betting on home teams as a dog in a matchup of two teasm that are solid rebounding teams averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents and is a solid defensive team allowing 45% or lower opponent shooting and now facing a team that is an excellent shooting team making 48% or more of their shots-per-game has earned a 25-5-1 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Under head coach Huggins, WVU is 41-16-2 ATS in hmome games and coming off a rouble-digit win.

I believe WVU will win this game outright.

Michigan State vs Maryland

2:30 ET, February 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on Maryland -2.5-points.

As a bonus pick, I like the OVER in this matchup too, and suggest a 2 or 3% betting amount at any price at 134 or lower. A 2% parlay is also an option betting the OVER and Maryland.

A simplistic betting system does not mean it does not have the ability to be highly profitable. This one has earned a 55-29 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to be home teams that are facing a foe, who is on a three or more-game win streak and has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season.  

Adding a filter that the home team has a higher effective FG percentage than the opponent and that the home team sports an effective FG percentage above 50% improves the system to a 29-9 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Maryland plays one of the slowest-paced styles of basketball ranking 333rd in the enation. However, that is more than priced into the market and my machine learning applications project a high probability that 140 or more points will be scored.  MSU has played significantly worse on the road than in their home games. 

MSU is just 2-13 ATS facing teams, who like to take the ‘three’ and average at least 21 3-points shot-attempts-per-game on the season.

Minnesota vs Washington

7:00 PM EST, February 27, 2021

4% NBA Best Bet on Minnesota +4.5 points and add a sprinkle using the money line. 

Betting on underdogs coming off three consecutive road losses and installed as a 3 to 9.5 point underdogs and facing a non-conference host have earned a 40-16-2 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets over the last seven seasons. Plus, if the the road underdog is on the road again, the record improves to an amzing 23-4-2 ATS for 85% winning bets. 

From the machine learning applications and projections for this ganme, we learn that Minneosta is 25-1 SU and 24-2 ATS for 92.3% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points, had fewer turnovers than their opponent, and held that opponent to 45% or lower shooting in games played over the last five seasons.

No 11 Florida State vs North Carolina
Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
4:00 PM EST, February 27, 2021

4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 151 points.

FSU is the dominant force in the ACC this season and enter this showdown with UNC on a four-game win streak and went 2-1-1 ATS. They are on an 11-game ‘OVER’ streak and shot over 50% from the field in five of those games. Most notably, they shot an incredible 71% from the field in a 105-73 destruction of NC State back on January 13.

UNC has been largely inconsistent this season as demonstrated in their last two games. They destroyed Louisville 99-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite and then inexplicably lost to Marquette 83-70 installed as a 9.5-point home favorite. They have had games where the defense does disappear of they forget how to score. However, in this matchup, their full attention and focus will on FSU knowing that a win will strengthen their NCAA resume.

This is the highest total this season in FSU games. Over the last five seasons, ranked teams that are playing in a road game with the highest total of the season, has seen the ‘UNDER’ earn a 44-24 UNDER record for 65% winning bets.

FSU plays an average-pace based on D-1 standards, but can really turn up the defensive heat. They rank 27th allowing 40.2% opponent shooting and 6th when adjusted by opponent and SOS. UNC is once again a great renounding team that ranks 2nd averaging 42.5 Rebounds-per-game, and third averaging 13.2 offensive rebounds-per-game. Both teams will look to be strong on their defensive glass and minimize the opponent’s second-chance scoring opportunities. UNC ranks best and FSU second-best in second chance scoring, but both are solid in their defensive second-chance scoring as well. So, bottom line is that second chance scoring for both teams is going to be much lower than their averages.

FSU is 32-14-1 UNDER after four consecutive games committing no more than 14 turnovers under head coach Hamilton.

Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons

8:00 ET, February 26, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Sacramento Kings -1 point. I do not see any value in making this a money line bet. 

Betting on teams that are playing on back-to-back nights and have lost three consecutive road games straight-up has earned a 24-21 SU record and 35-9-1 ATS record for 79.5% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system tells us to bet Sacramento. 

If the current game is another road game for the ailing road warriors, and they defeated this opponent in the last matchup, the record goes to 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. Sacramento is on the road and did defeat Detroit in their last matchup.

This is the fifth and final road game for the Kings, who have been losers of nine straight games and to the spread. Since 1995, there have been 21 teams, who have gone on a SU and ATS 9 or more-game losing streak. These teams have gone 12-9 ATS for 57% and drilling down to filter only road games, the record is 7-4 ATS for 64% winners. 

From the machine learning applications, we are informed that Sacramento is expected to score at least 111 points. The Kings are 45-20-2 ATS for 69% winners over the past five seasons when scoring 111 or more points in a road game. The Pistons are 16-37 ATS for 30% winning bets in home games in which they allowed 111 or more points. 

J

Purdue vs Penn State

7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021

3% Best Bet on Penn State (PSU) +1.5-points

Purdue has evolved into a well-respected team in the Big Ten that has the talent to take down one of the giants, like Michigan or Ohio State. Recency bias is a amajor part of the opening line and subsequent line movement. However, this line opened with Purdue as a 1.5 point road favorite and has quickly reversed and now has PSU priced as a 1-point favorite. Line movement this strong is quite bullish and positive for backing PSU. 

My opponent-adjusted power ratings show PSU as a -2-point home favorite and agrees with Haslam Metrics too. Don’t be fooled by PSU and their 5-11 conference record. The Big Ten is one of the strongest conferences I have seen in more than a decade. According to KenPom, PSU would be a pick-em to -1.5 point favorite over North Carolina, Clemson, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and UCLA. 

So, now we have a truly desperate PSU team that is coming off a hard-fought win at Nebraska. PSU had five players scoring in double-figures and team-leader Mayreon Jones had a career-high 29-points. So, PSU comes into this game off their best one of the season.

From the database queries, we learn that PSU is a highly profitable 15-3 ATS when coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS off a conference road win spanning the last three seasons and I see this angle moving to 8-0 ATS tonight. 

I am on a 12-5 ATS NBA and NCAAM Best Bets run. Over the long-term spanning many seasons, I am 407-309 (57%) over my last 714 basketball picks, which has made the Dime bettor a profit of $72,120 since January 1, 2018. So, take a few minutes and purchase a cost-saving longer-term subscription so that you never miss a play. 

Drake vs Bradley

Carver Arena, Peoria, IL

7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021

10-UNIT best bet on Bradley +9 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I have had the best success over the course of a season by taking my 5% amount and playing 80% of that amount on the line, and then 20% using the money line. 

Drake is tied with Loyola Chicago at 14-2 on top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings. Many of you, who listen to my live Predictive Playbook that is broadcast on Periscope and YouTube channels, already know I live Loyola-Chicago quite a bit and have bet them at 50-1 long shot to win the NCAAM Championship. I do not believe Drake is even the second-best team in the conference and is vulnerable in this matchup against Bradley. This is the first of back-to-back games against each other and they will play again tomorrow. 

The pace of this game will be slower than the average pace is for the MVC. Bradley ranks 260th and Drake 250th in possessions-per-40-minutes. A key factor in this bet is that Drake has played far worse in road games, than at home. Plus, Drake, despite winning four of their last five games has been playing at an inferior level compared to earlier this season when they were scorching hot. Drake is coming off back-to-back home wins over Evansville, who ranks 234th overall in the Haslem metrics and 240th with my opponent-adjusted PR. Bradley is a much better team than Evansville, and it is not even close. Bradley ranks 180th in PR and Haslem ranks them 182nd. 

Bradley head coach Wardle is 27-11-1 ATS after giving up five or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game. Bradley plays their best defense in a fundamentally sound fashion and not look to be overly aggressive to get steals and turnovers. So, Wardle is 23-12-1 AYTS in games following back-to-back games where the respective opponent did not commit more than 11 turnovers. Wardle knows how to play against strong defenses as noted by his 15-6 ATS record in home games facing an opponent that has allowed 42% opponent shooting on the season. 

Bradley lost their team-leading scorer and rebounder in senior Elijah Childs, who was suspended from the team on February 17. Bradley has used nine different starting lineups this season and head coach Wardle had been juggling starting lineups and playing minutes even before this suspension. At the D-1 level, bench players cannot wait to get their chance to showcase their talents in live-game situations. I believe that the loss of Childs will be more than offset by players getting that chance to have more minutes of playing time. 

Keep an eye on Ja’Shon Henry tonight. He was averaging around 20-minutes-per-game but has had 28,24, and 30-minutes of playing time in his last three games. He has scored 43 of his season total of 203 points and shot 15-for-24 for 63% in these last three games. 

Take Bradley plus the points as a 10-UNIT Best Bet

NC State vs No 15 Virginia

6:30 PM ERST, February 24, 2021

4% Best Bet on Virginia -11.5 points

UVA enters this matchup off their first two-gamne losing streak of the season. They were blown out by a very good FSU team by 19 points in Tallahassee and most recently lost a tough 1-point game at Duke. Their defense as awful in the losses allowing 50% shooting to FSU and 51% to Duke. Their defense is quite good and you can expect a much better performance against much weaker opponent in NC State. 

Betting on team that are coming off two upset road losses and now facing an opponent that is revenging a home loss to this team has earned an outstanding 68-31-3 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. If the opponent is the road team and is revenging that loss, where they failed to score more than 60 points, the record soars to 33-9-1 ATS for 78% winning bets. 

NC State lost 64-13 as 7-point home underdogs to UVA on February 3. NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a home loss versus opponent in games played over the last three seasons. 

My expectations see UVA bouncing back with a big game and gets the ATS win. 

J

Washington Wizards vs LA Clippers
Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
10:00 PM EST, Washington Wizards +12 points

Betting on road underdogs that have won 25 to 35% of their games on the season and coming off a road win, now facing a host with a winning record. When the game in question occurs after the 15th game of the regular season, the record soars to 51-15-2 ATS for 77% winning bets. If the game is after game number 25, the record then goes to a money-making 43-10-2 ATS machine for 81.1% winning bets.

I was on the Wizards last night in their road upset win over the Lakers and I see no reason not to back them again tonight. They are playing on back-to-back nights, but with no travel since the Lakers and Clippers both play home games at the Staples Center. The Clippers are playing their eighth game in the past 14 days and will have fatigue issues of their own. More important is their 5-game win and ATS win streak.

From the machine learning applications we are informed that the Wizards are 39-14-1 ATS for 74% winning bets in road games, scoring at least 111 points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last five seasons.

Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA
7:00 ET, February 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Georgia Tech +3 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Georgia Tech is the better ball-handling team ranking 16th nationally with a 1.423 asssist-to-turnover ratio and matched a rather non-aggressive V-Tech defense that ranks 114th with a 0.906 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. G-Tech has the better effective field-goal-percentage, the better free throw shooting percentage, and the better shooting efficiency measures that can win this game outright.

V-Tech is a money-burning 3-13 ATS when facing good bvall-handling teasm that are averaging 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in games played after the 15th one of the regular season. They are also 7-20-1 SATS in games following a four-game stretch in which they committed 14 or fewer turnovers in each one.

G-Tech Pastner is 6-0 ATS following back-to-back games in which his team made 78% or more of their free throw attempts.

Akron vs Ohio
Convocation Center, Athens, OH
2:00 PM EST, February 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Ohio Univeristy +1.5 points

To begin with, I like this matchup knowing that Ohio has played their best games at their home venue while Akron had had their poorest outings in road games this season. Akron also ranks a miserable 322nd nationally in overall performance consistency and gives Ohio a big advantage as they are ranked in the middle of the pack of the 357 D-1 programs. 

Akron loves shooting the ‘three’, but Ohio is a solid 12-4 ATS facing teams, who are averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts after game number 15 of the regular season and spanning the last two seasons. 

Akron head coach Groce is 3-12 ATS off a road win. 

From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened to the fact that Akron is 25-82-1 ATS in games in which they allowed 81 or more points and Ohio is an amazing 114-24-2 ATS for 83% ATS winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points. 

Texas State vs Arkansas State
7:00 PM ET, February 22, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on Texas State -3 points

Here are a few quick hitters that reinforce the projections produced by the machine learning applications. Texas State is 6-0 ATS after the 15th game of the regular season and now facing an opponent that is outscoring their opposition by at least 4 PPG in games played over the last two seasons. 

Texas State is 10-2 ATS in road games after habving won four of their last five games spanning the last five seasons.

Ark State 1-8 ATS after a win of three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons.

Steals will be a significant factor in this matychup and it favors Texas State, who ranks 127th nationally in quick scoring off of steals. Ark State ranks a miserable 297th in the defensive of this metric.

Texas Tech is the vastly better shooting team and going up against one of the worst defenses in NCAA basketball in Ark State.

Syracuse vs Duke
7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021
4% Best Bet on Duke -5.5 points

Syracuse is coming off a historic win over Notre Dame in a game they trailed by 20 points marking the largest comeback since 2005. Duke is coming off a huge and much-needed win over No. 7 UVA.

Betting on home teams after game number 15 of the regular season, that are shooting at least 45% from the field, and have shot 50% or better in their last three games has earned a solid 145-80-5 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

Duke is 10-2 ATS when facing excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game spanning the last two seasons.

Pepperdine vs St. Mary’s

6:00 PM EST, Fenbruary 22, 2021

4% Best Bet on Oregon +5.5 points and a sprinkle on the money line. 

From the machine learning applications, Pepperdine is an outstanding 9-0 ATS when getting at least 37 rebounds and outrebounding their oppoment in games played over the last three seasons. Further, they are 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons when they have scored 71 or more points and had fewer turnovers than their opponent. 

Philadelphia vs Toronto

7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 76ers -3.5 points

The 76ers ended their 3-game losing streak with two solid wins. They defeated Chicago 112-105 and were led by Joel Embiid’s career-best 50-point game and has played eight games scoring 30 or more points and get 10 or more rebounds this season. The 76ers played without Ben Simmons, who was suffering from the stomach flu. He scored a career-best 42 points, including 12 assists, and nine rebounds, in the loss to the Utah Jazz Monday. So, the 76ers are emerging as a powerful force to be reckoned with in the NBA’s Eastern Conference.

Toronto’s defense will not hold up against the 76ers attack. Toronto is 10-24 ATS in home games (even this game is in Tampa)  with a total between 220 and 229.5 spanning the last three seasons. This season, the 76ers are 11-2-1 ATS after having won two of their last three games. Toronto is also 73-118 ATS in home games in which both they and their opponent score 105 or more points. 

From the machine learning applications, we will be expecting the 76ers to score at least 111 points and attempt at least 88 shots. In past games installed as a favorite, the 76ers are 63-7 SU and 50-18-2 ATS for 74% winning bets when they met or exceeded those performance measures. 

Wisconsin vs Northwestern

7:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021

4% Best bet on Northwestern +7 points and sprinkle a bit more using the money line. 

Despite the different and opposite season-long records, these two teams are much more equal in performance levels and reflect how good the Big Ten Conference is this season. Wisconsin is the better team on paper, but has played their worst games on the road and is vulnerable to an upset loss. 

Both teams are excellent ball-handling ones. Wisconsin ranks 11th sporting a 1.457 assist-to-turnover ratio and Northwestern ranks 27th with a 1.311 assist-to-turnover ratio. Northwestern has the better and more efficient offense while Wisconsin has an elite and efficient defense. 

The Northwestern defense matches up well against Wisconsin’s offense that ranks about equal to the average D-1 program. Northwestern ranks 50th in defensive field goal percentage. In addition, Wisconsin has not been a threat on their offensive glass and ranks 285th converting second-chance scoring opportunities into points. Northwestern is solid in rebounding on the defensive end and will minimize Wisconsin’s second-chance scoring opportunities. 

Wisconsin has not played their worst games by many measures at home and Northwestern, despite, a losing record, is one of the more consistent teams in the nation. There you have it, Bet Northwestern plus the points. 

Penn State vs Iowa
5:00 PM EST, February 21, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on Penn State +11.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

Let’s start with a betting system that ahs earned a 70-22-3 ATS record for 76% winning bets over the last five season. The requirements are to bet on double-digit underdogs up to an including 19.5 points that has gone UNDER the total by at least 24 points in their last three games and now facing an opponent that has gone UNDER the total by 44 or mor epoints spanning their last seven games.

Betting on double digit underdogs after game number 15 that are averaging 68 to 75 PPG and now facing an opponent coming off three straight UNDER games and averages at least 78 PPG on the season has earned a 77-38-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets.

PSU has played their bets games away from Happy Valley and Iowa has played by far their worst at home this season.  The advantage that PSU has against the Iowa defense is that they take great care of the ball, despite ranking 13th nationally in field goal attempt rate, and are extremely good ranking 25th in potential quick points off of steals.

PSU is 15-3-1 ATS coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons.

No 3 Michigan vs No 4 Ohio State
Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
1:00 ET, February 21, 2021
4% Best Bet on Ohio State +1.5 points

This matchup pits two heavyweights in the Big Ten Conference and the winner of this game is almost guaranteed a No 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being ranked No 3 in the nation, Michigan has been largely inconsistent and have played poorly in road games that they won.

Turnovers will determine the winner of this game and that definitely favors OSU, who rank 11th committing just 10.4 turnovers-per-game on the season. OSU ranks 10th-best posting a 13.3% turnovers-per-play percentage and 15th averaging just 4.8 opponent steals-per-game. Neither team’s defense looks to generate turnovers and instead play fundamentally sound defense. Michigan ranks 338th averaging just 10.8 opponent turnovers-per-game and OSU ranks 328th averaging 10.7 opponent turnovers-per-game.

Free throws will also be an integral part of an OSU win noting they rank 4th making an average of 17.5 free throws-per-game and 22nd in free throw attempts averaging 22.7 per-game. Michigan ranks 172 averaging 13.0 free throws-pergame and a horrid 234th averaging 17 free-throw-attempts-per-game. So, in an even matchup of giants, every possession matters more and the critical scoring opportunity possessions favor OSU.

Miami vs LA Lakers
8:30 PM EST, February 20, 2021
4% Best Bet on Miami +3.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line as long as your spread line is 3.5 or more.

For starters, the Lakers are a money-losing 12-3-3 ATS facing struggling teams that are getting outscored by 3 or more-PPG spanning the last three seasons. Plus, they are a miserable22-46-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons. Miami is 22-8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or more of their last six games spanning the last three seasons.

The betting line of -3.5 and a total of 208 points implies a final score of 106-102 Lakers win. The machine learning applications predict that Miami will score at least 101 points and will make at least 14 3-point shots. When Miami has mewt or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 31-13-1 ATS in road games spanning the last five seasons.

Illinois vs Minnesota
3:30 ET, February 20, 2021
4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 148 points

Betting the UNDER in games after he 15th game of the season and where the road team is a great shooting team making at least 47.4% of their shots and is facing an opponent that is allowing 42 to 45% shooting has earned a crazy 820-600 record for 58% winners over the last 20 seasons.

Minnesota is 8-0 UNDER after the 15th game of the season and facing an elite opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points-per-game spanning the last three seasons. They are also 6-0 UNDER following four consecutive games committing 11 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last three seasons.

Pitino is 21-7-1 UNDER as the head coach of Minnesota when facing elite teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12 or more PPG.

Connecticut vs No 10 Villanova

Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA

1:00 PM EST, February 20, 2021

4% Best Bet on Villanova -6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the Villanova team total at 70.5 points. This team total bet is valid up to and including 75-points. 

The line for this game opened with Villanova installed as a 7.5-point favorite and the [public betting community jumped on UCONN forcing the price down to the current -6.5-point level. The betting behavior is a classic example of recency bias based on the last few games played by both teams. The bias certainly does not reflect the true strength of each team and the result is that we get an exceptionally cheap price to bet Villanova. 

In their last game, Villanova lost on the road to then-No 19 Creighton 86-70. Creighton shot an incredible 59.3% from the field and could have made shots with their eyes closed. Villanova struggled shooting just 37.5% and 31.3% from beyond the arc. However, they had just seven turnovers and shot 12-for-13 from the charity stripe for 92.3%. Villanova is 11-2 ATS after a game in which they made 88% or more of their free throws and 32-16-1 ATS after back-to-back games allowing nine or fewer offensive rebounds. 

Denver Nuggets vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, Ohio

7:00 PM EST, February 19, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Cleveland +8.5 points

Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that supports the predictions from my machine learning applications. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a losing record, that are coming off three consecutive road losses, and now facing a non-conference foe has earned an outstanding 36-12-2 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last seven seasons. These dogs have also earned a highly profitable 29-21 SU record good for 58% winning money line wagers.

So, I suggest betting this game by placing 80% of your 5% bet amont using the line and 20% of your 5% bet amount using the money line.

Drummond has left the Cleveland team and ends a highly toxic situation in the locker room. That is good news and so is the fact that Five-time All Star Kevin Love returned to practice Thursday, but is not likely to play tonight. Despite a 10-19 record overall, they are 7-7 in home games, and have the seventh-best fast break averaging 13.4 PPG. Two players have stepped up for Cleveland over the last 10 games. Cedi Osman is taking more 3’s and is averaging 11.5 PPG amnd making 34% from beyomd the arc. Jarrett Allen is shooting 61.5% and averaging 13.7 PPG in his last 10 games. He will be a formidable presence in the paint tonight knowing that Cleveland ranks best in the NBA averaging 54.5 PPG in the paint.

The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd averaging 15.7 forced opponent turnovers-per-game and this too will be a huge factor in getting the upset win.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Cleveland is 11-9 SU and 14-6 ATS for 70% winning bets as a home dog, scoring at least 50 points in the paint, and having scored more points-in-the-paint than their vistor in home games over the last five seasons. In addition, Cleveland is 22-5 SUATS in home games in which they scored 50 or more points-in-the-paint and got a minimum of 50 rebounds in games played over the last five seasons.

Thank you for your purchase! Good Luck to us and May all the Wins be yours!

Miami vs Sacramento

10:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Miami Heat

Betting on any team that is on a 3 or more-game ROAD losing streak and playing on back-to-back nights has earned an outstanding 34-9-1 ATS for 79.1% winning bets over the last five seasons. And when the team involved is playing another road game, the record soars to 22-5 ATS for 82% winning bets.

For this research and the predictive analytics, Goran Dragic is listed as out. He has an ankle injurty and very unlikely he will play despite being listed as questionable.

From the predictive applications, we learn that the Heat are an outstanding 14-5 SU and 17-2 ATS in road games installed as a dog, scoring 111 or more points and having the better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last three seasons.

No 3 Michigan vs Rutgers

Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI

9:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021

4% Best Bet on Rutgers +9 points

Michigan may be the No 3 ranked rteam in the country, but they have been incredibly inconsistent for an elite team. The erractic performances have been masked by outstanding defensive efforts and with that said Rutgers will need to shoot well from the perimeter. Michigan does play aggressively on the defensive end and forces the opponent into a perimeter shot. They rank 325th averaging just 10.8 turnovers-per-game, which will give Rutgers the opportunity to have many open shots.

Rutgers is 9-1 ATS facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding their opponents by at least four boards-per-game, and after the 15th game of the season. They are also 21-10 ATS when playing against an opponent that has a strong defense allowing 43% or lower shooting in games played over the last two seasons.

Miami vs Sacramento

10:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Miami Heat

Betting on any team that is on a 3 or more-game ROAD losing streak and playing on back-to-back nights has earned an outstanding 34-9-1 ATS for 79.1% winning bets over the last five seasons. And when the team involved is playing another road game, the record soars to 22-5 ATS for 82% winning bets.

For this research and the predictive analytics, Goran Dragic is listed as out. He has an ankle injurty and very unlikely he will play despite being listed as questionable.

From the predictive applications, we learn that the Heat are an outstanding 14-5 SU and 17-2 ATS in road games installed as a dog, scoring 111 or more points and having the better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last three seasons.

No 4 Ohio State vs Penn State
8:00 PM EST, February 18, 2021
University Park, PA

4% Best Bet on Penn State +4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the momey line.

This is a must-win for Penn State and defeating a highly ranked conference foe would really brighten their resume. They have played the toughest schediule in the nation, but with a win tonight, they have an excellent opportunity to win-out.

PSU has a losing record, but do not let that fool you for one second. They are vastly better than record reflects. PSU is a solid 77=36-1 when facing teams that attempt a minimum of 21 3-point shots in gajes played after the 15th game of the regular season. They are 13-4 ATS when facing outstanding ball-handling teams that average 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game  in games played over the last two seasons.

PSU has shot miserably in their last three games and are likely to exceed their season shooting averages tonight according to my machine learning applications. Note that PSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games when scoring at least 75 points in games played over the last two seasons.

Utah Jazz vs LA Clippers

Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA

10:05 PM EST, February 17, 2021

4% NBA Best Bet on the LA Clippers

This is one of the best matchups of the season so far. Three weeks ago, this game would have been lined with the Clippers dressed as a 7-point home favorite and now, because of the tremendous and historic win streak by the Jazz, the Clippers find themselves installed as a home underdogs of 2 to 3 points. Moreover, the Jazz have covered the spread in 18 of their last 20 games. 

Now, Utah was just 4-4 through January 6 and then something happened to the entire team. They have won 19 of the last 20 games and covered the spread in a miraculous 18 games losing to the spread just twice. So, having worked on Wall Street for 18 years (last position was a Chief Currency Strategist), betting against Utah is akin to catching a falling knife. The saying originated in bear market conditions where many quality stocks get hit hard with immense selling pressure and trying to determine a bottom is like trying to catch a falling knife, like a large butcher knife. And so it is in sportsbetting. 

My intuition has made me want to go against Utah simply because they were playing at such a high level that regression was going to hit them. That was ten games ago. Remember too, in the 2001 MLB season the Oakland A’s, who were truly a couracopia of players, won 20 consecutive games from  Tuesday August 13th through Wednesday, September 4, setting the all-time modern day American League win streak record. So, fading that streak after a 10-game streak would hav been disasterous to any bankroll and shows it is not a smart decision no matter how you look at it. 

My machine learning applications are screaming to bet the Clippers and why this is a 4% Best Bet. 

Betting on home teams sporting a winning record on the season and hosting another team with a winning record that is coming off three consecutive games covering the spread as favorites in each one, has earned a 39-18 record for 68% winning bets using the money line in games played over the last five season. 

Cleveland vs Golden State
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
10:00 ET, February 15, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers + 8.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

Let’s start with one of the best and highly profitable NBA Betting systems IO among m, more than 2000 that I have developed over many years of work. This one has earned a 34-8-1 ATS for 81% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to be on teams playing on back-to-back nights and are coming off three consecutive road losses.

Cleveland played yesterday (Sunday) and lost 128-111 as 9-point road underdogs to the LA Clippers. They have lost 10 consecutive games to the spread and 7 straight in a straight-up fashion. So, this is an example of a contrarian bet based on a market price that has now oversold the value of the Cavaliers. There are times in the NBA, that present an opportunity to get a poor and struggling team at a major discount and I believe this is one of those opportunities.

In case you were wondering, teams that have lost 10 or more games to the spread are 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. 8-3 SATS for 67% ATS if playing on the road., and 4-1 ATS if playing on back-to-back nights.

Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech
4:00 ET, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Pittsburgh + 4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I take 85% of the amount of my 4% Bet and bet the game using the spread. Then the money line is used to be the remaining 20% amount.

Betting on road teams coming off an ATS win, but lost the game and now playing in a matchup of teams sporting win percentages between 50.1 and 60% on the season has earned a highly profitable 36-9-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons.

G-Tech’s head coach Pastner is a money-burning 7-18-1 ATS when playing their third in a game. 
From the machine learning applications, Pitt is expected to shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc, and/or get a minimum of 40 rebounds, and/or outrebound G-Teach by at least five rebounds. So, any combination of these three parameters has seen Pittsburgh be the winning bet in at least 83% of the games played over the last five seasons.

Nebraska vs Penn State

Bryce-Jordan Center, University Park, PA

3:00 PM EST, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Penn State -11 points

Do not be misled by Penn State’s losing overall and conference record. They have played the toughest strength-of-schedule in the nation and now begin a stretch that could see them win out. If they advanced to the Final-4 of the B-10 Tournament, they could earn a spot in the dance. They have the talent and team chemistry is quite good.

Nebraska has played their worst games on the road this season and ranks 342nd when playing away from Lincoln.  Penn State looks to run and score within ten seconds off of missed shots and rank 31st in this category. Nebraska has been terrible defending an opponent’s fast break off of their missed shots ranking 223rd.

PSU averages 25 3-point shot attempts per game and Nebraska averages 24. Nebraska is 6-22-2 ATS when facing a team averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts in games played after the 15th game of the season and spanning the last three seasons. PSU is 70-32 ATS when facing teams, who are averaging at least 21 3-points shot attempts, after the 15th game of the seasons spanning the last ten seasons.

From the machine learning applications, PSU is 14-2 ATS for 88% winning bets when scoring 75 to 81 points and making at least 78% of their free-throw attempts in games played over the last two seasons.

No 3. Michigan vs No 21 Wisconsin

Kohl Center, Madison, WI

1:00 PM EST, February 14, 2021

4% Best Bet on Michigan -1 point.

The money line bet may be a solid alternative to the -1 point, but only if it is priced at -114 or lower. Anything above -115 has minimal value and is too expensive and increases the risk amount too.

I was surprised when this line opened with Wisconsin as a -2-point home favorite, but that lasted about 30 minutes as money did come in on Michigan. A few books have Michigan priced as -1.5 point road favorites and this is the level where the market is balanced.

The reason I was surprised by the opening line is that Michigan ranks 1st in overall positive team momentum while Wisconsin has been inconsistent and ranks 290th in momentum. Wisconsin has played their best and most efficient games at home, so that may be a supportive reason for the opening line. Still, Michigan is the better team right now, but this will be a grinding and defensive-minded game.

The big difference between these two teams is that Michigan has a more efficient offense than Wisconsin. Michigan ranks 6th nationally with a 58.1% 2-point shooting percentage and ranks 5th making 50.9% of all shot attempts. Overall, Michigan ranks 5th with a 57.6% effective FG percentage. By comparison, Wisconsin ranks 155th with a 50.5% effective FG percentage, 235th with a 48.1% 2-point FG percentage, and 196th with an overall 43.2% shooting percentage.

Both defenses are among the best in the nation, but Michigan has a modest edge at this end of the court as well. Michigan is 7-0 ATS facing strong defensive teams allowing 42% or lower opponent shooting in games played this season.

No 7 Ohio State vs Maryland

9:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

Xfinity Center, College Park, MD

4% Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 139-points. 

Ohio State set a program record of four consecutive road victories against Top-15 teams in their win over Iowa last Thursday. Maryland has been struggling and lost 55-50 at a vastly underrated Penn State team last Friday. The loss to PSU marked season-lows in points scored with 50 and assists with just six.

Maryland has played solid defense and rank 46th in overall defensive efficiency. They will be tested by an OSU offense that ranks 5th nationally in overall offensive efficiency. Both teams play at some of the slowest paced games nationally and in the Big Ten conference this season. OSU ranks 274th averaging 67.8 possessions-per-forty-minutes and Maryland ranks 206th averaging 66.7 possessions-per-forty-minutes. So, there certainly will be no rush after rebounding a missed shot by either team.

Betting UNDER the posted total in games lined between 130 and 139.5 points after one of the teams involved is coming off five consecutive games scoring 65 or fewer points and facing an opponent that scored 40 or more points in the first half of their last two games has earned a 46-16-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

OSU is 9-1 UNDER following a game in which they scored 85 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Oklahoma State vs No 23 Kansas

Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

9:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on Oklahoma State +4.5-points and sprinkle a bit more using the money line.

Kansas has uncharacteristically struggled against teams with a winning record of 60% and higher sporting a horrible 0-6 ATS record this season. OSU has a major advantage in terms of their positive recent play and the momentum they carry into this game. They have won 3-of-4 and 6-of-8 games and covered the spread at the same clip. In their last game, they shot a terrible 35.3% against then-No 5 Texas and still scored 75 points in their 75-67 win Saturday. They defeated Kansas earlier this year at home 75-70 as a 3.5-point underdog.

OSU has been a far more consistent team ranking 22nd nationally and Kansas’s root problem is consistency in which they rank 322nd. So, OSU is more consistent and is playing some of their best basketball of the season. When I see strong momentum and consistency levels I immediately target that team as a potential betting opportunity.

Kansas has had problems with their bench play and contributions. Their most recent 91-79 loss at West Virginia saw all five starters score in double-digits, but the bench scored just four points. OSU has seven players averaging at least 20 minutes and that depth will serve them well in their attempt to sweep Kansas in the season series. 

Golden State vs San Antonio

AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

8:30 PM EST, February 8, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on the San Antonio Spurs

Betting a team playing between their fifth and 41st game of the season with a team that has lost to the spread by an average of 12 to 25 points over their last four games and now installed as an underdog has earned a 161-94-6 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2000.

Betting on favorites off an upset win installed as an underdog and has won 51 to 60% of their games in the current season and facing an opponmen that has a winning record on their season has earned a 40-16-1 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications we learn that San Antonio is 74-23 SU and 66-29-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points and committing 12 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last five seasons.

Austin Peay at Tennessee-Martinsville

7:00 PM EST, February 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on Tennessee-Martinsville +12.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line. 

The machine learning applications predict that this game will be much closer than the 11.5 point betting line indicates. Both of these teams play at the lower-end of the pace-of-play stats with Austin Peay ranking 299th and UT-Martin ranking 285th in possessions-per-forty-minutes. That suggests that Auston Peay will not run away from UT-Martin and the game will remain within single digits. Plus, UT-Martin has played their best games at home this season and this is a huge advantage for them.

Needless to state, UT-Martin shoots horribly poor form the field and rank 351st in overall field goal percentage. However, Austin Peay’s defense can make any struggling offense resemble a Gonzaga unit. Austin Peay ranks 348th in defensive field goal percentage. UT-Martin is capable of shooting better than 45% from the field and if they do just might pull off the big-time upset win. 

Super Bowl LV
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL

6:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 points and a little sprinkle on the money line too. 

The KC offense is one of the best anyone has seen in at least the last decade, but when you break down the game film, they are a two dimensional one. They have TE Kelce and WR Hill and they complement one another perfectly. If a defense looks to take away the post routes to Hill, then Mahomes will throw underneath to Kelce and vice-versa. The Bucs defense, especially the linebackers are some of the best and quickest in the NFL. That unit will make things far more difficult for Mahomes in this matchup. 

BUCS DEFENSE VS CHIEFS DEFENSE
In the first game, the Bucs were somewhat depleted on defense and had to reduce the amount they normally blitz to just 16% of plays from a season-to-date average of 39%, which is one of the highest in the NFL. The defense forced 73 QB hurries ranking third-best, 71 QB knock-downs ranking third, and recorded 48 sacks tied for third. They ranked second behind the Pittsburgh Steelers recording 192 QB pressures. Yes, I know it is Mahomes and he has tremendous athleticism and still has a high passer rating even when pressured, but this is the best defense in the NFL and no other defense has played at this level all season.

By comparison, the Chiefs defense is somewhat pedestrian and ranks in the middle third of many defensive performance measures. They rank ninth with a 35.7% blitz percentage but going up against the best offensive line in the NFL that is 100% healthy too. KC defense ranks 15th with 55 QB hurries and 19th with just 32 sacks on the season. Plus, the Tampa Bay OL has allowed a sack on just 3.3% of all plays during the regular season. Offensively, these two teams are near equaled overall, but the largest difference is that the Bucs defense is vastly better than the Chiefs.

Where the Chiefs defense will be most vulnerable is on second downs. The Bucs run the ball a high percentage of the time on first downs and getting three to five yards then sets up the play-action pass play. Brady is one of the all-time greats with the fake to the running back that freezes even the best All-Pro linebackers. For the season, he has thrown 110 passes for 1,119 passing yards out of the play-action set. Brady through over the top with great success against New Orleans and Green Bay and it will be highly effective in this matchup too.

The Chiefs defense ranks 20th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards-per-play, which also matches the league average.

The Bucs are 8-1 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 5.65 or more yards-per-play on the season. The Chiefs rank 6th gaining 6.3 yards-per-play this season, but the

Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS facing excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play this season.

The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in games played with a total ranging between 40 and 49.5 points this season. 

A HIGHLY PROFITABLE BETTING SYSTEM 
Betting on home underdogs that are hosting a team that is outgaining their opponents by 70 or more passing yards-per-game and are coming off a game in which their defense allowed 5.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt has earned a 97-50-6 ATS record for 66% winning bets since 1989. When in the playoffs and Super Bowls, the home/neutral dog is 6-2 ATS for 75% winning bets and 5-3 SU.

FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATIONS
The Tampa Bay offense is projected to post a 14.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Chiefs. In Super Bowls, teams that met this pair of performance measures has earned an incredible 9-3 ATS record for 75% winning bets and 10-2 SU. Further, Tampa Bay is projected to have the same or fewer turnovers and score 27 or more points. In Super Bowls, teams that have mwet or exceeded these measures has gone on to a 9-3 SDU record and 8-4 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets.

MY SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
Always be careful to construct a risk neutral set of prop bets. Many times people bet props that match the needed outcome for the team they bet on and get too lopsided with too much money bet in total. Also, a prop bet should be about 10% of your normal game bet size. So, if you bet $100 on the game, the props should be in the $10 range. This is not a game to try and ‘go for it’ so please do not do that. I am using prices from the MGM Sportsbook.

Bet the Bucs -10.5 points +650
R.Jones +1400 will score the first touchdown
Any Bucs defensive player will score the first TD +4000
Any Bucs defensive player scores a TD any at any time. +550
Super Bowl MVP Running back +800
Super Bowl MVP defensive player +750
OVER 1st QTR 10.5 points -105
Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop each to make 1 or more FG -225
Tom Brady rushing yards 0.5 yards OVER +145. (That makes me laugh every time I have talked about it)
Tyreek Hill to record 80+ receiving yards and score 1+ TD’s  +125
Bucs win and Tomy Brady throws for 300+ yards. +325
Patrick Mahomes to record 250+ passing yards, Tyreek Hill to record 80+ receiving yards, and Leanoard Fournetteto to record 80+ rushing yards. 
Will either team score 3 times in a row? NO +175

Memphis vs New Orleans

9:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Memphis Grillies +1.5 points.

Only sprinkle the money line if the spread hits 3.5-points.

Let’s start with a proven betting system that has earned a 100-55-1 ATS record good for 64.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. The system requirements are to be on road teams in a game lined within three points on either side of pick-em and facing a host that is allowing at least 103 PPG and coming off a win by three or fewer points.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Memphis is 97-47 SU and 103-36-5 ATS in road games in which they scored at least 105 points and shot 47% or better from the field in games played over the last ten seasons.

Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia 76ers

8:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers

This matchup could be a preview of the Eastern Conference finals later this season. However, the Nets will be without Kevin Durant. In a game last night that the Nets eventually lost 123-117 to the Toronto Raptors, Durant was held out at the start of the game due to coronavirus contact tracing. Someone he was in contact with earlier in the day had an inconclusive COVID-19 test.

Durant entered the game in the first quarter before being pulled in the third for the rest of the game due to health and safety protocols after his colleague's test came back positive.

I am not making this bet because Durant is not playing, and who knows, he still might be cleared to play. It is rumored that he did not travel with the team last night. 

Betting on home teams that are revenging a double-digit road loss and are coming off a dismal game losing by 15 or more points as a favorite has earned a highly profitable 71-41-2 ATS record for 63.4% winning bets over twenty seasons. Plus, 13-6 ATS if the game is a matchup of divisional foes. 

From the machine learning applications we learn that the 76ers are 49-7 SU and 39-16-1 ATS for 71% winning bets in home games, scoring 111 or more points, and committing 14 or fewer turnovers in games played over the last five seasons. 

Washington vs Oregon

4:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Washington +13.5 points

Let’s start with a proven betting system that has earned a 47-18-2 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last twenty seasons. The system requirements are to bet on road dogs with a win percentage of 20% or lower on the season and facing a host that has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and has gone OVER the total by 30 or more points spanning theie last five games. 

Oregon is a money-burning 5-18-1 ATS in a home game and coming off two comsecutive home losses. Further, Oregon guard Chris Duarte is downgraded to OUT for this game with an ankle injury. 

Bet Washington as a 4% Best Bet.

No 19 Wisconsin vs No 12 Illinois

2:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Illinois -4.5 points

No 19 Wisconsin vs No 12 Illinois

2:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Illinois -4.5 points

The Big-Ten Conference is head and should the best conference in the nation and where the road team has an enormous challenge to get a win. Home team dominance has endured in the Big Ten for the past three seasons and it reflects the remarkable depth of the conference that may send nine and possibly ten teams to the Dance.

Wisconsin has been largely inconsistent on the season and has played their worst games on the road. Illinois has been a far more consistent team and has played their best at home this season. Illinois ranks 12th nationally with a 56.6% effective field goal percentage and 9th making 50.1% of all shot attempts. What is remarkable about Illinois is that they do not take many 3-point shots ranking 275th, but rank 130th in made- 3-pointers, and 9th making 39.7% of their 3-point shots.

Head coach Underwood is 28-12-1 ATS facing an excellent ball-handling team averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

From the machine learning applications, Illinois is expected to score between 76 and 81 points in this game, and in past games in which they scored within this range has produced an 80-42 ATS result. Wisconsin is 11-28 ATS for 72% winning bets in games in which they allowed 76 to 81 points.

Miami (Ohio) vs Buffalo

5:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Buffalo -7.5-points

This Mid-American matchup features two complete opposite and extreme style of basketball. Starting with pace-of-play metrics, Buffalo plays fast and 10th nationally averaging 75.5 possessions-per-game. Miami (Ohio) ranks 313th averaging a plodding 65 possesions-per-game. Buffalo has ranked consistently between 90 and 105 nationally in my power ratings while Miami (Ohio) is further back in the rankings at 170th and has not been below 150 this season. 

Buffalo has a big advantage when they have the ball. They rank 140th in overall offensive efficiency while Miami (Ohio) ranks 259th in overall defensive efficiency. Turnovers are expected to be below average for Buffalo given that Miami )Ohio) ranks 315th in steals-per-game. 

Buffalo is on an 8-1 ATS run when facing a weak defensive team that is allowing 45% or better shooting in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the predicytive side of things, Buffalo is 16-4 ATS in games played in which they got a minimum of 45 rebounds in games played over the last three seasons. 

Iowa State vs Oklahoma

12:00 PM EST, February 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Oklahoma Sooners -16-points

Here are some quick hitters. Oklahoma is 19-6-1 ATS when facing a team that is allowing 77 or more points-per-game on the season. ISU is a money-burning 2-11 ATS in road games facing a defensive team averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game on the season. ISU is 4-17 ATS when on the road and installed as an underdog for the fifth consecutive game. Oklahoma is 11-2 ATS in home games with a totasl between 140 and 149.5 in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the ,machine learning applications we learn that Oklahoma is 15-3 ATS when they score 80 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Golden State vs Dallas

7:35 PM EST, February 4, 2021

4% Best Bet on Dallas -3 points

Golden State starts a COVID-19 road trip that will see them play the next four games on the road and have to visit only two cities. Tonight and Saturday night they will play Dallas and then February 8 and 9, they play on back-to-back nights against the Spurs. Doesn’t sound all that equitable for the Warriors.

Dallas is 8-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games in games played over the last three games.

From the machine learning applications we learn that Golden State is 17-207 SU and 37-181-6 ATS for 17% in road games shooting less than 47% from the field and allowing 111 or more points.

No 7 Ohio State vs No 8 Iowa

Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA

7:00 PM EST, February 4, 2021

10-Unit Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 points

Iowa stopped a two-game losing streak with an 84-78 win over Michigan State Tuesday. They have not covered the spread in their last three games, which is a season-high. Prior to this tough 3-game stretch, the betting flows gravitated to Iowa, but now the market has discounted Iowa far too much and today’s game offers a terrific betting opportunity.

Ohio State has caught fire winning six of their last seven games and covered the spread in five of them. Ohio State has largely outperformed expectations and is playing at unsustainable levels. They now take to the road to play the best and most efficient offense in the nation that can overwhelm any opponent at any time.

Iowa ranks no 1 in the nation in ball handling sporting a 2.097 assist-to-turnover ratio and will be facing an Ohio State defense that has posted a below-average 1.135 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 269th nationally. Iowa moves the ball well, especially in the half-court set, and will not be met with a pressing style of defense from Ohio State.  When Iowa moves the ball on offense they become even better at finding the best possible shot in each possession. Iowa looks to get the ball to Garza, of course, but the entire team is focused on getting the shot closest to the rim. Ohio State ranks 201st in allowed dunks, layups, and tip-ins.

Betting on home favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points in a matchup involving two teams that are outscoring their opponents by eight or more points-per-game, and with the home team coming off a game in which they scored 45 or more points has earned a 75-40 ATS record good for 65.5% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons.

Iowa is an outstanding 11-2 ATS in home games facing a team, like Ohio State, who is averaging at least 21 3-point shot attempts in games played over the last two seasons. They are also 12-2 ATS  in games following two consecutive games having 14 or fewer turnovers in each game.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Ohio State is 9-37-2 ATS 80.4% when they have allowed 81 to 87 points and 12-53-2 ATS 81.5% when allowing 81 or more points.

LA Clippers vs Cleveland
8:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the LA Clippers

Betting on road favorites between -5 and -12 pts playing on one day of rest of on back-to-back nights is outscoring their opponents by at least 3 points-per-game (PPG), have scored at least 105 points in three straight games, and is game number eight or more of the season has earned a 130-71-7 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. When the road favorite is playing on B2B nights, they are 31-15-1 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the Clippers are 51-2 SU, and 47-6 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring a minimum of 111 points and making 40% or more of their 3-point shot attempts. 

Washington vs Miami
8:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021
4% Best Bet OVER 230 points

Washington owns the worst win percentage record in the NBA in large part because they have been playing without their two stars in Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. Miami defeated Washington on January 9 by a 128-124 score and both Beal and Westbrook did not play in that game. So, the matchup lends itself to a higher scoring pace with the winner having at least 120 points.

On Tuesday night, Westbrook put up a triple-double and Beal scored a game-high 37-points including six 3-pointers made, but it was not enough as Washington lost to the Portland Trailblazers 132-121. Note that Westbrook is doubtful for this game tonight and being given the night off.

Betting on the OVER in game that has a total line ranging between 220 and 229.5 points with a team coming off two days of rest and a game in which 225 points were scored and now facing an opponent coming off a scoring fest with 235 or more points scored and playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 29-15-4 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last 7 seasons.

A 230-point total and Miami favored by 8-points implies a 119-111 Miami win. My machine learning applications confirm that Miami will score at least 121 points and will have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. When Miami has scored 121 or more points and had the better ATR ratio has produced a remarkable 23-1 OVER record for 96% winning bets in non-overtime games played over the last seven seasons. 

Milwaukee vs Indiana
7:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks

I had Milwaukee as a 4% Best bet winner in their last game over Portland. The market has discounted the value of the Bucks too much given their recent struggles, but they are entering a stretch of games that they will cover the spread in many of them and starting with this one tonight.

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points, are coming off an ATS win, have a win percentage greater than 50%, but less than 60% on the season, and facing an opponent with a win percentage within the same range has earned an outstanding 77-31-2 ATS for 71.3 % winning bets over the last seven seasons.

From the machine learning applications, Milwaukee is a solid 70-6 SU and 64-11-1 ATS, when they have scored at least 111 points, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio, has earned a highly profitable 85.2% ATS record in games played over the last three seasons. 

ELON vs James Madison
Atlantic Union Bank Center, Harrisonburg, VA

4:00 PM EST, February 3, 2021

8-Unit Best Bet on James Madison -8.5 points

Betting on home teams that are hosting a foe coming off a loss of six or fewer points, has more starters that returned from the previous season than the opponent, and the game taking place in first 15 games of the regular season has earned an outstanding 65-27-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that JMU is 46-24-1 ATS when scoring 75 to 81 points. ELON is a money-burning 30-58-2 ATS when the have failed to score more than 65 points.

Calgary vs Winnipeg
8:00 PM EST, February 1, 2021

8-UNit Best Bet on the Winipeg Jets

Betting against NHL teams using the money line that are revenging a road loss to the current opponent, and are coming off a road shutout win has eanred a highly profitable 112-67 for 63% and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,720 spanning the last five seasons. Calgary won 2-0 at Montreal in their previous game. Winnipeg defeated Calgary 4-3 as +105 dogs back on January 14, 2021.

Winnipeg is in an excellent situation sporting a 10-2 SU record and making the $100 bettor a $1,085 profit off a loss to a divisional rival in games played over the last two seasons.  Winnipeg lost 4-1 to Vancouver in their previous game.

No 2 Baylor vs No. 6 Texas
Frank Erwin Center, Auston, TX

7:00 PM EST, February 2, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas +5.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

A few quick Hitters:
Texas is 24-7 ATS in home games facing sharp shooting 3-point teams averaging eight or more made 3-point shots. Baylor is averaging 11 made 3-point shots. Texas is 65-36-2 SATS for 68% winning bets when hosting extremely good teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding their opponents to less than 42% shooting. Baylor is averaging 50.2% shooting and allowing 40.7% opponent shooting.

Texas is an amazing 25-2 SU using the momey line in home games, afdter the fifth game of the regular season, and facing an opponent that is making anaverage of eight 3-point shots

Texas is also a solid 24-9 ATS in home games and have covered just one game among their previous five games.

No 24 Oklahoma vs No 10 Texas Tech

United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
9:00 PM EST, February 1, 2021

8-Unit Best Bet on Oklahoma +7 points

Oklahoma will be looking to end a six-game losing streak to Texas tech and build more momentum opff their upset win against then-No-11 ranked Alabama this past Saturday.

Oklahoma is the better ball-handling team and shoots more efficiently from the field than Texas Tech. Oklahoma ranks 21st nationally with a 1.392 assist-to-turnover ratio cpompared to a much weaker 1.144 ATR ratio for Texas Tech. Oklahoma has earned a 51% effective-field-goal percentage ranking 127th nationally. TT ranks 198th in effective-FG-percentage at 49.3%.

Oklahoma has also improved significantly and has increased the number of assisted-field-golas made over the last three games. 47% of their scoring shots were by assist. TT ranks 6th forcing an opponent to commit a turnover on 22.1% of their possessions. That measure may look good until you note that TT plays at the slowest pace in the Big-12 and that Oklahoma is a terrific ball-handling team averaging just 10.5 turnovers-per-game.

Oklahoma head coach Kruger is 31-12 ASTS for 72% winning bets in games that had a total between 130 and 139.5 for his coaching career.

From the machine learning applications, Oklahoma is 19-5 SU and 21-2-1 ATS for 90.5% winning bets over the past 15 seasons in road games where they scored 77 or more points and held their opponent to less than 45% shooting.

Portland vs Milwaukee

8:00 PM EST, Fenruary 1, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks -10 points.

Betting on favorites facing a host off an upset road win and with both the team and opponent sporting win percentages between 51 and 60% on the season has earned a highly profitable 29-18-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Portland is on an 0-8 ATS streak coming off a road upset win and then installed as an underdog in the following game. 

From the machine learning applications, the Bucks are 42-3 SU and 32-10-3 ATS for 76.2% winning bets in home games spanning the last three seasons. 

Rutgers vs Northwestern
Welsh-Ryan Arena
Evanston, ILL

7:30 PM EST, January 31, 2021

4% Best Bet on Rutgers – 4 points

The edge in this matchup is on the improving Rutgers defense of late. Six games ago, Rutgers was allowing a 54.6% effective field goal percentage based on a 5-game moving average and marking the season worse. Entering this conmtest, the 5-game moving average as improved to a solid 48.1% allowed effective FG% and is markedly better than Northwestern.

Northwestern enters this game with a five game average of 58.7% effective FG% allowed and just off their season low of 60.4% made two games ago.

Rutgers has chosen to slow down their pace of play over the last 14 games from a five-game average of 75 possessions per game to the current and season-low 67.2 possessions-per-game. The slower pace has augmented their offensive efficiencies  and will find it easy to move the ball in thehalf-court set against a NW defense than ranks 328th nationally with a horrible 1.327 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a home win against a conference foe, sporting a win percentage between 50 and 60% on the season and facing a team with a losing record has earned a solid 110-63-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Philadelphia vs Indiana
Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

7:00 PM EST, January 31, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 points.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a 20 or more point win and now facing a host, who scored and allowed 100 or more [points in each of their last three games has earned a 52-24-2 ATS record good for 68% winning bets since 1995 and 40-18-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and my research and bet is based on him NOT playing tonight.

From the machine learning applications, the 76ers are 59-8 SU and 50-16-1 ATS in road games, scoring 111 or more points, and having the better, more efficient assists-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last three seasons.

Stanford vs Arizona State
Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ

8:00 PM EST, January 30, 2021

10-Unit Best Bet on Arizona State -1.5 points

The ASU offense has been inconsistent over their first 13 games of the season, but in recent games, they are starting to find their way and playing more efficiently. They are 1-11-1 ATS for the season and the market has steadily discounted them in search of a betting numbers equilibrium. However, now the market has them priced very cheap and is offering us a great contrarian bet.

Despite a losing record, ASU has a solid 1.154 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 73rd nationally of the 357 Division-1 basketball programs. Stanford, despite a winning record, is a horrible ball handling team sporting a 0.826 assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 255th nationally. Moreover, Stanford is a horrible 3-point shooting team ranking 248th making just 31% on the season.

Stanford is 4-14-1 ATS in road games following a streak where they won four or more of their last six games and are 1-10-1 ATS in road games after winning five or more of their last seven games in games played over the last three seasons. Stanford head coach Haase is a money-burning 10-26-1 ATS in road games facing a host that averages at least 21 3-point shot attempts.

Bet Arizona State -1.5 points. I do not expect the line to move much at all from the current price. If anything, the market make move toward pick-em.

Florida vs No 11 West Virginia
WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV
2:00 PM EST, January 30, 2021

8-Unit Upset Alert Best Bet on the Florida Gators and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

Florida has won three straight games since losing 72-69 at Mississippi State  where they shot just 41% from the field. During ths 3-game win streak they have shot 49.1%  in a 75-49 win over Tennessee, 56.9% in a 92-84 win at Georgia, and lastly, 51.9% in a 78-71 win overVanderbilt. Moreover, they are averaging an outstandsing 1.15 points-per-possession.

The reason for their improved shooting is that they have taken far more shots at or near the rim than at any other point of the season. With Florida looking to get to the rim on every possession is going to put immense pressure on the West Virginia defense.

Sophomore Scottie Lewis will return to action, who is averaging 10.9 PPG and will add even more points from close range.

WVU head coach Huggins has not done well when facing SEC popponents. He is a money-burning 4-16 SATS when facing an SEC foe as the coach of WVU.

Penn State vs No 13 Ohio State
Valuer City Arena, Columbus, OH
7:00 PM EST, January 27, 2021
10-Unit  Best Bet on Penn State +8 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line

I believe this line could rise in our favor as the day wears on and led by the public seeing a 13th ranked team playing at home and facing a team with two conference wins and a 5-6 overall record. These stats are extremely misleading for many reasons.

Penn State (PSU) has played the toughest schedule to date in the Big Ten Conference and significantly more difficult schedule than Ohio State (OSU). PSU has faced ACC-member Virginia Tech, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois all on the road, Not that home court has near the advantage this season than in previous ones, but that is a tough road schedule no matter the season.

Ohio State’s remaining schedule includes trips to No 5 Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State. They must then play Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State in home tilts. So, Ohio State has had the softer schedule and will begin a gauntlet of road and home tests that would be a success if they play even on-game over 0.500.

OSU ranks 6th in the Big Ten averaging 23.2 three-point-attempts-per-game, but are making only an average of 8.0 made-three-point-shots-per-game. PSU is 16-5-1 ATS in road games facing a host that is averaging a minimum of 21 3-point-attempts-per-game in games played over the last three seasons.

Penn State won their previous game at home 81-78 over Northwestern. PSU is a 15-4 ATS following a game scoring 80 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 13-2-1 ATS following a game in which 155 or more points were scored in games played over the last three seasons. OSU installed as a home favorite and facing an opponent that scored 80 or more points in their previous game is a money-burning 16-32 ATS in games played over the last ten seasons.

PSU enjoys playing at a faster-then-average pace and is 12-3-1 ATS when they had 63 to 70 shot attempts in games played over the last two seasons. PSU is 14-3-1 ATS when scoring 75 or more points in games played over the last two seasons.

Bet Penn State as a 10-Unit top-rated Best Bet.  To have success in sports betting, always remember to be disciplined, and resist the temptation to ‘go-for-it’. Make no mistake about it, the sports betting process is a marathon. Betting the same amounts for your 3,4, and 5% (6,8,10 Unit) bets, every day, will pave the way to highly profitable bottom lines at the end of the season. Thank you for making this purchase and best of luck to us!

Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
NFC Championship Game
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Green Bay Packers to play UNDER 51-points. Given the 51-points total and the Packers favored by 3-points implies a 27-24 Packers victory. The Packers are 10-0 UNDER in playoff games in which they and their opponents score fewer than 28 points. 

Brady passed for 189 yards in last week’s road win over the Saints. In playoff games he is 28-18 UNDER for 61% winning bets following a playoff game in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards.

Now, combine the UNDER with the BUCS using the money line to bet a parlay and also consider a reverse action parlay. 

Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
NFC Championship Game
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +3-points

The line for this NFC Championship game opened with Green Bay priced as a 3-point home favorite and the public bettor has been largely attracted to bet Green Bay accounting for 71% of the best made as of Wednesday. I fully expect this trend to continue, but the line may not move above 3.5 unless there is new news. I am planning on waiting till Friday to place 50% of my 5% bet size Friday at the market price and then prepare to add 25% more about an hour before game time. The remaining 25% will be used for in-game live betting at a price of +7.5-points. I will be tweeting LIVE in-game bets so make certain you are following me. 

Betting on road teams after week 8 including the playoffs, that make few mistakes averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game (TPG) and have posted four consecutive games committing no more than a single turnover in each game, and now facing an opponent that is also takes great of the football averaging 1.25 TPG has earned a 36-25 SU record and a 37-22-2 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

The following results is a subset variation of the previous system and requires us to bet on road teams in game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer TPG and with the host coming off a game in which their defense did not face a turnover. This subset has earned a 41-28 record and 47-20-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 4-2 SU and a perfect 5-0-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8.6 points. 

My opponent-adjusted power ratings have the Packers as the best team in the NFL, Tampa Bay second, then the Buffalo Bills at 4th, and the Chiefs a distant ninth. So, placing a futures bet on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl and a matchup bet that the Bills and Bucs will be the Super Bowl teams is a great opportunity. 

The Bucs have a significant advantage running the ball against the Packers defensive line. The single-most powerful situation for Brady over his entire career has been using play-action pass and having an extra two seconds or more to scan the field and complete high-percentage routes in space. Once the Bucs force the Packers to bring a safety up to the line-of-scrimmage the play-action pass will highly effective and the dominant reason the Bucs win and advance to the Super Bowl. 

From the machine learning applications we learn that the Bucs are 14-7 SU and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when scoring 24 or more points and averaging at least 6.3 yards-per-play.  

Ottawa vs Winnipeg
10:08 PM EST, January 23, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Ottawa Senators

Betting on road teams using the money line that are mistake-prone and averaging 4.7 or more short-handed situations-per-game are 29-11 for 73% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $2,875 in games played over the last five seasons. 

Winnipeg not in a good spot here noting they are just 11-26 losing the $100 bettor $1,900 when coming off two or more road wins. 

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks
American Airlines Center
Dallas, TX
4% NBA Best Bet on Houston +9 points. 

Betting on road teams that priced as underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points with a losing record on the season and now facing a host that has played six or more games in the past ten days has earned an outstanding 40-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. 

From the machine learning applications we learn that Houston is a solid 120-21 SU and 117-19-5 ATS for 86% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points in a road game and also had the better assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Philadelphia vs Detroit

8:00 PM EST, January 23, 2021
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers

I have been on the 76ers this season and have not bet against them. In fact, I find them as one of the most under priced NBZA teams of the past five seasons. Now, they take to the road on back-to-back nights to take on the worst team in the NBA, the Detroit Pistons. 

76ers effective filed goal percentage sits at 54.7% ands ranks 11th in the NBA. Detroit ranks 28th in the NBA shooting a dismal 49.7% from the field. They are 30th shooting 2-points at a 47.6% clip and the 76ers vastly better ranking 8th and making 54.8%. 

The 76ers are third-best rebounding team in the league. Detroit is 9-28 ATS when facing elite rebounding teams that out rebound their opponents by an average of three or more boards-per-game in games played over the last three seasons. 

LSU vs Kentucky
Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
6:00 PM EST, January 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Kentucky -1.5 points. 

Kentucky is akin to a stock on Wall Street that no one wants to admit that they own, and rightfully so. Kentucky has lost three straight games and lost to the spread in each of them. Prior to the current three-game losing streak, they had won three in a row and many thought they had righted the sip and Calipari was about to make the mid-season winning run. Because the public has disowned Kentucky, the market has more than discounted them, and I find them very cheap to be lined as a 1-point favorite against LSU. 

LSU had won three straight before getting slapped in the face nay SEC-leading Alabama 105-75 as 1-point underdogs. 

The machine learning applications all agree that Kentucky will win this game by at least seven points. 

New Orleans vs Utah
Vivent Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, UT

9:00 PM EST, January 19, 2021
4% Best Bet OVER 220.5-points

Betting OVER the posted total between 210.5 and 219.5 points with a team that is on the road and has gone OVER the total by 30 or more points over their last five games and has a losing record on the season between 40 and 49.9% has earned a solid 27-14 OVER for 65.9% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. 

The system has not posted two consecutive losses (UNDER) over the past five seasons. The previous game that this system was active as a loss with the host Lakers defeated the Pelicans 112-95 going UNDER the 218.5 point total. 

New Orleans PG Lonzo Ball is lined as questionable for this game with a knee injury. Utah has two players in SF Joe Ingles and F Juwan Morgan listed as questionable. This TOTAL bet is based on Ball not playing. So, if he does surprisingly play tonight, would make the OVER more likely to win. 

From the machine learning applications we discover that Utah is 32-2 SU and 23-8-3 OVER for 74.2% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

4% Best Bet OVER

TAMPA BAY VS NEW ORLEANS
Divisional Round
6:40 PM EST, January 17, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +3-points and a sprinkle on the money line if the Bucs are getting at least 3-points.

This is the third time that these divisional rivals will face each other this season. The road teams are 10-11 SU, and 15-8 ATS for 62% winning bets in the NFL playoffs. In the Wild Card Round last week, the Browns and Rams were in this role and both won SU against their divisional rivals. Teams meeting for the third time that have a higher yards-per-play ratio than the opponent are 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS for 62% winning bets. The Bucs have averaged 6.0 YPPL ranking 7th-best in the NFL and the Saints have avered 5.8 YPPL ranking 11th-best in the NFL.

Betting on road teams in a game in which they and their host are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game and with the host coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 44-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five regular and playoff seasons.

The Saints under head coach Sean Payton are 0-6 ATS in home regular season and playoff games spanning the last three seasons. Drilling a bit deeper, Sean Payton in home playoff games facing an opponent with a winning record is 6-2 SU, BUT 2-6 ATS.

From the machine learning applications, the Bucs are projected to score 27 or more points and average a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass attempt. In past playoff games, road teams that have met or exceeded this par of measures have earned an incredible 25-7 SU record and a 28-2-2 ATS record good for 93% winning bets and that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points. Road teams during the regular and playoff seasons that are playing with double-revenge, scoring 27 or more points, and averaging 7 or more YPPA, have earned an 85-27 SU record and 98-9-5 ATS record goods for 92% winning bets. 
TAKE THE TAMPA BAY BUCS FOR A 5% BEST BET

Ohio State vs Alabama

8:00 PM EST, January 11, 2021
CFP Championship Game
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

5% Best Bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes +8 points. 

The current lines for this game price the Ohio State Buckeyes as 8-point underdogs with a total of 75.5 points. The action has seen greater number of tickets and money being bet on Alabama moving the line from its’ opening of 7-points. The UNDER has been the preferred bet and has lowered the total from its’ opening of 76.5 points

The line and total indicate and implied 41.75 - 33.75 Alabama win. The 28-point scoring level is an extremely important benchmark that defines many NCAAF teams ATS success or failure. Overall, teams playing on a neutral field and score 28 or more points have earned a 457-162 SU record for 74% wins and 421-187-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past ten seasons. 

Ohio State has earned a 10-1 SU record and 7-4 ATS mark when scoring 28 or more points in a neutral field setting. Regardless of location, Ohio State has earned an incredible 99-2 SU mark and 59-40-2 ATS for 69% winning bets spanning the past ten seasons. 

This Championship game implies that both teams will score 28 or more points and my machine learning tools support this in a big way. Ohio State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing in a neutral field setting and in game where both they and their opponent score 28 or more points. Alabama has been horrible money-losing bets when in games where they and their opponent both score 28 or more points with an 5-3 SU record and an imperfect 0-8 ATS record that has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10-points. 

Betting on neutral field underdogs that are averaging a minimum of 4.75 YPC on the season and coming off three consecutive games rushing the ball for at least 225 yards in each game has earned a highly profitable 38-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets in games played over the past 15 seasons. Obviously, this to supports Ohio State.

Nick Saban is a great coach, but there are a few situations in which he has not done well. Since becoming the head coach of Alabama he is 11-22 ATS for 33% winning bets when facing a team that is averaging 235 or more RYPG, and 1-6 ATS for 14% when the game is played on a neutral field. 

How to Bet This Game. 

My recommendation for this 5% Best Bet is to take Ohio State using the spread for an 80% amount of your 5% Amount. Then place 20% pre-flop (before the game) using the juicy money line. I am going to add 10% amounts in-game if Ohio State is lined at +11.5, and +14.5 points. If the +14.5 its live bet is confirmed then, I will immediately add 10% amount on the money line. 

Given the very high TOTAL, this game will have both teams ripping off 10 to 21 unanswered points. So, let the game volatility work with you and take advantage of these contrarian opportunities. Good Luck and Thank you for all the loyal support. 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta
7:30 PM EST, January 11, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 76ers + 6.5-points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too. 

Bonus 3% Best Bet OVER 222-points. 

Yes, I do know that Ben Simmons is out for tonight’s game and the 76ers are very short in the guard department. However, Embiid comes back tonight and the 76ers are 24-13 ATS for 65% winning bets in games that Embiid played in and Ben Simmons did not. 

The machine learning applications inform us that even with Simmons, the 76ers in road games are 103-42 SU, and 113-29-3 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points. The OVER has gone 127-18 for 88% winning points. 

So, the consider an optional parlay using the 76ers +6.5 points and the OVER 222-points. 

Baltimore Ravens Vs Tennessee Titans

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

1:05 PM EST January 10, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens

Here are a few quick hitters:
Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in road games facing a solid passing team that has completed 62% of their pass attempts on the season in games played over the last three seasons. 
They are 8-0 ATS in road games facing a solid offense gaining a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass in games played over the last three seasons. 

Baltimore’s season hit rock bottom in a Week 12, 19-14 loss at Division rival Pittsburgh and from there on out to the end of the regular season Baltimore has made improvements in each week. They are peaking at exactly the right time coming off 38-3 win at Cincinnati in which they posted many season-highs across the offensive efficiency metrics. 

 The Titans gained the most passing yards (1541) and ranked third in the NFL running a total of 174 play action pass plays. They have an outstanding ground attack led by Henry and the Ravens will look to confuse the gap blocking reads of the Titans offensive line with late pre-snap personnel movements. The Ravens have increased these adjustments whenever the play clock is under 10 seconds. The Ravens blitz a league-low 115 times because they were getting enough pressures and QB hits rushing just four linemen. The Ravens do not need to bring a safety to reinforce the run-defense and in turn makes play action nearly useless for the Titans. The Titans may counter this advantage for the Ravens by placing Tannehill in the shot-gun. 

Playoff teams like the favorable situation the Ravens are in, that are on a 6 or more game ATS win streak with 11 or more wins and in playoff games are 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

NFL 2020-21 Wild Card Playoff Round

Bill Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

1:05 PM EST, January 9th, 2021

5% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts +6.5-points and sprinkle a bit extra on the money line. 

Some of you may like the Colts to win the Super Bowl, and if you do, I have a strong recommendation for you. The current futures line is 35:1 that the Colts win the Super Bowl. However, you will make more money if you bet the Colts using the money line in each game alog the way tow a potential Championship. So, I suggest playing this game with 75% on the line and then 30% using the money line. If you do like the Colts to go all the way, the bet a 25% amount of your 4% wager using the futures line, and then 30% using the money line in each game moving forward. 

Future Hall-of-Famer and 17-year veteran Philip Rivers adopted quickly and quit ewell to Colts head coach Frank Reich’s offensive scheme and proved that last seasons’ 19 interceptions thrown was an outlier. Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles Championship run in 2017. He looks like a genious now, having left for this position, the day after the Eagles Super Bowl win. Rivers’ and Reich’s playoff experience is a monumental advantage in this matchup against a Bills franchise playing in their first playoff as a favorite since the losss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 8.5-point favorites in 1996. 

The ket matchup for the Colts odffense is between Rivers and the Buffalo secondary featuring cornerback Tre’Davious White. For the majority of the regular season, the Colts knick was that they did have a ground attack strong enough to be respected by opponents defense units. Not the case now as the Colts averaged 124.8 rushing yards per game for the season and a monster 175.6 RYPG over their last three games that was good enough to rank third-best in the NFL. So, the Colts will be successful on the ground and force the Bills to bring a safety to the line-of scrimmage. When Rivers sees this scheme, he will look to use play-action and use seem and post routes knowing his receivers will be in man-coverage. 

The Colts defense was quite good throughout the 2020 season and the Bills will struggle to run the ball. Although the Bills with Josh Allen are a pass-happy unit, forcing him to throw more than he is used to, will make ti very tough to move the chains into scoring opportunities. 

HC Reich is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games having won two of the last three games. 

Reich is 16-5 ATS facing solid offensive units that average 350 or more total yards-per-game. 

My machine learning tools reveal that the Colts are a highly profitable 15-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS in road games holding an opponent to fewer than 100 rushingn yards and gaining a total of 300 or more total yards in games played over the last ten seasons. Under the same projections, the Bills are just 4-12 SU and ATS in home games over the last ten seasons. Home playoff teams that fail to gain 100 rushing yards and allow 300 or more total yards are 14-13 SU, BUT a money-losing 7-19-1 ATS in playoff games played over the last ten seasons. 

North Carolina vs Texas A&M

5% Best Bet on Texas A&M -7

Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

This is a game that I believe Texas A&M will win by at least 11 points. Do NOT make anything of the fact that Texas A&M thinks they should have been the 4th seed in the CFO and that they are going to go out in this game to prove a point. Jimbo Fisher has coached mamny games and has been part of Florida State’s National Championship.

So, I did extemsive research factoring all of the opt-out players and UNC has lost the most starting talent by a landslide and that adds even more confidence to the Machine Learning model predictions.

Quick Hitters:
Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. 8-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons. 10-2 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons. UNC HC Brown is 9-22 ATS after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored for his career.

Betting on any team in a game involving two excellent rushing teams gaining at least 4.75 YPRA and with one of the teams coming off a game allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game has earned a 35-9 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning tools I use and have developed predict a near-90% probability that A&M will score 35 or more points. A&M is 121-64-6 ATS when scoring 35 or more points in games played since 2000 and under head coach Jimbo Fisher, they are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.

Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

4% Best Bet on Mississippi State +2.5 points.

Mike Leach took over the head coaching responsibilities this season at Miss State and won his first game against the defending national champion LSU Tigers. We learned quickly that LSU was nowhere close to being the same team last season and Miss State sputtered and lost 7 of their next 8 games, before ending the season on a high note with a win over Missouri. All season, Miss State struggled to run the ball enough for opposing defenses to respect. However, they gained a season-high 154 rushing yards in the win over Missouri.

Since 2000, he has been a head coach in every season except 2010 and 2011. This marks the 17th Bowl game in 18 years as a head coach at Texas Tech, Washington State, and now Miss State.

 Betting on teams with a line within three points on either side of pick-em with a team that is coming off a game where they outgained that opponent b 125 or more total yards and are now facing a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned an impressive 114-61-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Florida vs Oklahoma
Cotton Bowl Classic

AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

8:00 PM EST, December 30, 2020

4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Florida Gators +7 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I would highly recommend placing 70% of your normal 4% bet size on Florida prior to the start of the game. This game promises to have team scoring streaks that we can then exploit to our advantage. Starting with Florida as a 4.5-point underdog right now, add 15% of your 4% bet size in-game with a line of +8 or higher, and then the last 15% amount on Florida at +11.5 points.

Florida is without their top-4 WR, who have opted out, but why then is the line not heading towards making Oklahoma a -11 or more-point favorite? It is simply because Florida has a stable of elite WR and no other team in the country recruits WR better than Florida has over the years.

Using the money, betting on neutral field teams that have beaten the spread by 21 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 26-21 straight-up record, but has made over $4,100 for the $100 bettor spanning the last 10 seasons of games.

Also, playing on playoff and bowl game underdogs that are getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them, but more than 60% of the money have earned an outstanding 107-40 record for 73% ATS winning bets since 2011.

Boston vs Indiana

7:05 PM EST, December 29, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Boston Celtics +1-point.

The NBA schedule maker was not kind to the Celtics having to open with Milwaukee, then Brooklyn, and now back-to-back games against the Pacers. This is the second of two away-away situations, which are aimed to help mitigate the COVID-19. Celtics did lose 108-107 this past Sunday and failed to cover the spread as 3-point road favorites.

Betting on favorites during the first eight games of the regular season using the money line, which is off a home win, closed out the previous season with at least four consecutive losses has earned a highly profitable 69-19 record for 78% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a profit of more than $3,600. since 2000.

Betting on teams that made a minimum of 76% of their free throws in the previous seasons and are coming off three consecutive games allowing 47% or better opponent shooting has earned a highly profitable 18-8 rcord for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made over $2,000 in profits for the $100 bettor.

The machine learning models show us that Boston playing on the road is an outstanding 39-12 SU for 77% wins, 38-11-2 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2015, when their opponent commits 16 or more turnovers and shoots less than 37.5% from beyond the arc.

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

4:30 PM EST, December 26, 2020.

4% Best bet on the San Francisco 49ers +6 points and sprinkle a little on the money line.

CJ Beathard is starting for the 49ers and this is his audition to make an impression prior to him becoming a free agent in two weeks. I strongly believe he will play well and has the potential to win the game outright.

Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a solid 48-20-4 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to play on road dogs facing a host that have a miserable turnover margin of -3 or worse in their previous game in games played since the start of the 2016 season.

The machine learning tools project that the 49ers will score a minimum of 24 points and gain at least 4.0 yards-per-rush. In past road games in which the 49ers met these performance measures has earned them a 55-17-2 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2016.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day

4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints. 

Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season. 

Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons. 

From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000. 

Golden State vs Milwaukee

2:30 PM EST, Christmas Day

4% NBA Best Bet on the Colden State Warriors +10 points. 

Both teams lost their opening game to the season. Milwaukee lost 122-121 to the Boston Celtics and the Warriors lost at Brooklynn 125-99. 

From the machine learning model, the Bucks are projected to have at least 20 turnovers and have more turnovers than the Warriors. In past Bucks games in which they committed 20 or more turnovers and had more turnovers than their opponent has earned a terrible 7-14 ATS record for 33% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Marshall vs Buffalo

Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, AL

5% Best Bet on Marshall +5.5 points.
3% Best Bet ‘UNDER’ 54 points.

1% Parlay Sprinkle Marshall using the Money Line and the UNDER.

I’ll get right to the powerful and highly profitable betting system that supports the Marshall Thundering Herd. In a Bowl Game, bet against a favorite that lost their conference championship game by eight or more points. This situation has seen the false favorite post a miserable 13-18 SU record and a 9-22 ATS record for 29%, and the UNDER earning a solid 21-10 record good for 68% winning bets in bowl games played since 2005.

Drilling down through this dataset by querying only Bowl Games played in December produces a highly profitable 5-12 SU record, 1-16 ATS record for 6%, and the UNDER winning the cash on a 13-4 record for 77% winning bets since 2005.

The market has priced in the loss of Marshall’s star running back Brenden Know, who left the team. Marshall has many running backs that will be eager to step up to take advantage of the extra game time and include junior Sheldon Evans and sophomore Knowledge McDaniels. Freshman QB Wells is a running threat in his own right and completed 61% of his passes for 1,977 yards, 18 touchdowns, , 9 interceptions, and a 144 QBR.

This money line bettig system has earned a 23-19 record for 55% winning bets, making the $100 bettor, a sizable profit of $4,350 in games bet over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line and are coming off three games in which they were beaten by 21 or more points versus the spread. The average money line bet has been +273.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

12:30, PM EST, Christmas Day

4% Best Bet ‘UNDER’ the posted total of 140 points. 

Bettng UNDER the posted total between 140 and 149.5 points after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games and is winning 80% or more of their games on the season has earned an outstanding 48-15-1 UNDER record in games played over the past five seasons. MSU and Wisconsin sport win percentages above 80%. 

MSU is averaging 82 PPG on the season. Wisconsin is 12-2 UNDER in road games facing good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points-per-game over the last three seasons. Wisconsin is 7-0 UNDER coming off three consecutive home wins. Wisconsin head coach Gard is 25-7-1 UNDER when playing only their third game in a week. He is also 30-11-1 UNDER when facing an elite opponent that has outscored their opponents by an average of 8 or more PPG. 

From the machine learning tools, MSU is 14-2 UNDER when scoring 65 to 72 points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Providence vs Butler
6:00 PM EST, December 24, 2020
Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best Bet on Butler

Just four games into the season, Butler finds themselves in an urgent situation to win a game. With a 1-3 record, Butler is off to their worst start since the 1998-99 season, and must play better against a 7-2 Providence and Big East foe toight.

Providence is led by two scorers. Junior and preseason All-Big East First Team selection David Duke and senior and preseason All-Big East Second Team selection Nate Wilson are averageing 19.4 and 19.3 PPG, respectively. The tandem creates a strong inside-outside game, especially with Duke hitting a scorching 47% from beyond the arc.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace and this increases the need for strong defensive rebounding by Butler to minimize second-chance scoring chances for Providence. Through four games, itler is allowing an outstanding 4.5 offensive rebounds-per-game. Bryce Nze is coming off back-to-back games getting 10 or more rebounds in each game.

Butler is 8-0 ATS in games line within 3-points on either side of pick in games played over the last three seasons. Butler head coach Jordan is 13-4-1 ATS in home games coming off a game allowing five or fewer offensive rebouds and 9-2 ATS in home games facing solid ball-handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
8:15 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points.

I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points.

Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990.

Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season.

Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite.

Texas State vs Northern Arizona

3:00 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Northern Arizona +9 points and sprinkle some on the money line

NAU will be seeking their first win of the season after losing the first four games to start their season. TST is off to a 5-3 record and are coming off a70-68 win at Denver, but failed to cover the spread as 7 point favorites. NAU has lost all four games ATS and have not shot better than 37% from thw field in any of these games. However, they have faced much tougher competition than has Texas State and this ‘seasoning’ is going to pay-off this afternoon. 

TST is 4-12 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in games played over the last two seasons; 3-12 ATS when facing a team that struggles on the defensive end allowing 45% or high shooting in games played over the last three seasons. 

This is momey line system is one that you definitley want to record and track. It has earned a 39-44 SU record for 47% winning bets since 2000, but has made the $100 bettor a $4,710 profit over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team using the money line that is allowing a terrible 52% shooting from the field and are getting out rebounded by seven or more boards-per-game. 

Wofford vs Texas A&M

1:00 PM EST, December 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Texas A&M -5.5 points

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 59-29 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on a home team that is favored including pick, after being beaten by 33 or more points to the spread over their last five games and sports a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. 

Wofford is 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games in games played over the last two seasons. Texas A&M head coach Williams is 25-6 ATS after a game where his Aggies had two or fewer steals. 

J

Arizona vs Philadelphia

4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points. 

From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. 

The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons. 

Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf. 

Alabama vs Florida

8:00 PM EST, December 19, 2020

5% Best Bet Florida +17 and yes, sprinkle some on the money line at a +650 price. 

I will be playing this game as an 85% amount of a 5% bet using the spread and then 15% on the money line. 

This betting system has earned a 23-18 SU record for 56% winning bets over the last ten seasons making a $100 bettor a profit of $5,705. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. 

From the machine learning tools, Florida is projected to gain 9 or more yards-per-pass-play and Alabama is 11-22 SU when they have allowed an opponent 9 or more YPPP. Under head coac Nick Saban, the Tide is 5-11 ATS and just 9-7 SU when allowing 8.5 or more YPPL. 

Florida is 16-2 against the money line when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons; 26-4 against the money line when they gain 450 to 500 total yards in games played since 2000. 

Illinois vs Penn State
4% Best Bet on Penn State -15 points

 This betting system has earned a highly profitable 48-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a conference foe and coming off two consecutive wins and ATS covers as double-digit favorites.

 From the machine learning model and tools, PSU is expected to score at least 28 points and they are 33-11-4 ATS under James Franklin when scoring 28 or more points. Illinois is just 15-53-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2011. PSU is also projected to gain over 500 yards. They are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets under James Fraklin.