Clemson vs Syracuse

7:00 PM EST, October 15, 2021

4% Best Bet on Clemson minus the points

The current line of -13.5 and 44.5 total points implies the market stating the final score will by 29-16 Clemson win. My predictive models also expect Clemson to score at least 31 points. Clemson is 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS when scoring 31 or more points in games played over the last three seasons and 12-3 ATS for 80% in road games and scoring 31 or more points spanning the past five seasons.

Betting on road favorites from 10 to 21.5 points that are facing a host coming off one or more ats wins has earned a 85-39-2 ATS record over the last five seasons for 70% winning bets.

Bet Clemson minus the points, currently -13.5 and good to bet up to an including – 15.5.

NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

4:25 PM EST, October 10, 2021

10-UNIT Total of the Month OVER the posted total

This is my first 10-UNIT play in the NFL and have won a 10-UNIT play on Colorado State +24.5 points, who covered easily by 14 points against Iowa.

After trailing the fourth by 11 points, the Giants stormed backed and shocked the Saints in overtime 27-21 and marked the first time since 2011 that they trailed by 10 or more entering the fourth quarter and won the game That is certainly a confidence booster for the entire team, especially the offense as they travel to Dallas in Week 5.

The Cowboys, mostly done my Prescott, have thrown at least one TD in each of their last 26 home games and is the longest streak in franchise history. The struggling Steelers hold the current streak with 32 games and throwing for at least one TD, which is shocking.

Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards and was his first 400+ passing game and the first since Eli Manning threw for 434 in the 2017season. The offensive line did a great job giving Jones time to scan the field allowing no sacks to the Saints. In fact, it was the first game this season in which neither team recorded a sack.

Dallas is 22-9 OVER in home games after outrushing their opponent by 100 or more yards in their previous game and 39-17 OVER in home games after outrushing an opponent by 75 or more yards. Dallas I on a 6-0 OVER streak installed as a home favorite; 27-12 OVER in home tilts and on a 3 or more game win streak. Head coach McCarthy is 15-3 OVER in a home game after scoring 35 or more points for his career.

From the predictive side of things, my models show a high probability that Dallas will score at least 27 points and gain at least 400 total offensive yards. In past games, when they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 10-2 OVER record for 83.3% winning bets spanning the past three seasons; 16-4 OVER for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

No. 1 Alabama vs Texas A&M
8:00 PM EST, October 9, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Texas A&M plus the points. Plus, not more than 2-UNIT bet on the money line OR wait till in-game, and if Alabama scores first then get the 2-UNIT money line bet executed. I like the latter choice to wait in-game and see.

Prior to the start of the season, the WestGate had this game lined as A&M installed as a 7.5-point home dog. So, the recent performances of these two teams, especially Alabama, has caused the market to explode in favor of Alabama. The result, though, has been that akin to stock trading, Alabama is now in severely overbought territory, while A&M is a bit over sold. My predictive models are expecting more of a single-digit type of game, but not higher than 14 points.

Betting on any team that is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing a team that has played in three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored have earned a 38-13 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Plus, defending national champions that are 5-0 in the following season do get overpriced and a result are just 6-11 ATS when installed as a favorite and 2-7 ATS when installed as a a road favorite. A&M is also 23-9 ATS in home games after two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover and Fisher is 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the previous game.

Michigan vs Nebraska

7:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Nebraska plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I do believe there is major chance that Nebraska can get the win in this matchup. Betting on a home team using the money line that is coming off a game in which they were leading at the half by at least 24 points and has a defense allowing no more than 17 PPG on the season.

Nebraska head coach Frost is a perfect 6-0 ATS when installed as an underdog and coming off a SU and ATS win. Nebraska is 37-18 ATS facing teams with a turnover margin of +1 or more per game. Michigan is 2-12 ATS off an upset road win.

From the predictive models, Nebraska is 11-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 137-65-4 ATS over the last 20 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points.

South Alabama vs Texas State
7:00 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas State plus the points

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of October and after failing to the spready by a total of 28 or more points spanning their last three games has earned a quite strong 82-40-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the last 10 football seasons and went 21-7 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Make no mistake about it, Texas State has played a much more difficult schedule than South Alabama has so far this season. SA is a money-burning 14-37 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover.

Boise State vs No. 10 BYU

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Boise State plus the points

BYU is 5-0 and ranked no. 10 nationally in the latest polls. Week 6 is by far the week that sees the most upsets and surprising ATS covers too. The market builds momentum on these 5-0 teams and then in week 6 and 7 become overvalued OR they are playing a foe that is grossly undervalued. In this matchup it is a combination of the two and we are getting rewarded handsomely to bet on Boise plus the points.

Boise has a bit of revenge on their minds as well after getting dominated 51-17 in a loss to BYU last season. Boise lost at Nevada last week, 41-31, their most points allowed since allowing 51 to BYU in 2020. BYU has learned they have three quarterbacks that can manage the game. Quarterback health will be a determining factor in how high the Cougars can climb this season. Jaren Hall started the first three games before missing two contests with a rib injury. Baylor Romney started against South Florida and Utah State, but he played one half against the Aggies before sitting out the second half with a concussion. Jacob Conover, BYU's third-string quarterback, finished out the game against Utah State, helping to secure the 34-20 victory. Hall is listed as questionable for this game and given that it is a ribs injury, I can’t imagine him being able to throw the ball well.

BYU is just 2-10 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 58% or higher completions in games played over the last three seasons. BYU is 10-23 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging just 125 or fewer rushing yards-per-game are a highly profitable 59-20-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons and 29-12 ATS over the last three seasons.

Central Michigan vs Ohio University

3:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on CMU minus the points

Ohio University is 2-14 ATS when playing against a team that is no more than one game under 0.500 or not lower than 40% in games played over the last 10 seasons. Ohio is an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home games following a game in which they forced that opponent into no more than one turnover. CMU head coach McElwain is 16-3 ATS when facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 200 or more rushing yards-per-game on the season.

From the predictive side of things, there is a very high probability that CMU will score at least 28 points. In past games when they have scored 28 or more points they have gone on to a 12-2 ATS record over the last three seasons and 83-25 over the last 20 seasons.

Playing on road favorites that are facing a host that has a very poor turnover defense that is averaging fewer than one turnover per game and after 5 straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each of them has earned a 31-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

No. 6 Oklahoma vs No. 21 Texas

Noon EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line

This game is taking place at the famed Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas and hopefully will remain the game called the Red River Rivalry after these teams join the SEC. Texas QB Casey Thompson is a bit of a trader at least perhaps in his family eyes. His brother and father both started at QB for the Sooners, but Casey chose Texas and sat behind Sam Ehlinger for his first three seasons as a Longhorn. He took over the starting job in Week 3 of this season and the offenses has looked monumentally better under his leadership. Including 272 rushing yards in its 32-27 win over TCU last week, Texas has rushed for 1035 yards over its last three games, its most in a three-game span since ripping off 1111 yards from October 15 to November 5, 2011. This is the difference maker in my eyes in this matchup and why I think Texas will not just cover the spread, but win the game.

From the predictive models, Texas will score at least 28 points in this game and are on a 7-1 ATS win streak when playing away from Austin.

Stanford over Arizona State

10:30 PM EST, October 8, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

As you may know, I was on Stanford and called their upset win over then-No.3 Oregon. Stanford now takes to the road to play No. 22 Arizona State, who was my PAC-12 Game of the Month winner (5-UNIT or 5%) that covered by 23 points over UCLA. We are not playing a side in this matchup, but coming off a big-time highly emotional upsets, these teams are likely to play UNDER the posted total tonight

Arizona State overpowered the Bruins on both sides of the ball, although the Cardinal defense allowed similar yards to UCLA as the Sun Devils' unit. UCLA gained 455 yards against Stanford and 435 against Arizona State. The big difference in this matchup is the ASU ground attack featuring Rachaad, DeaMonte Trayanum, and quarterback Jayden Daniels. I conclude from my matchup analysis that Stanford will be able to contain the ASU ground attack and make this a game played mostly between the 20’s and with more FG than TDs scored.

Betting the UNDER in games lined between 49.5 and 56.5 points and matchup of two teams winning 60% or more of their games in the current season and with one of those teams having won two of their last three games has earned an outstanding 66-34-2 UNDER record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons.

St. Louis vs LA Dodgers
8:10 PM EST, October 6, 2021
4% Best Bet on St. Louis using the money line
1% Best Bet OVER Cardinals team total
1% Best Bet Dylan Carlson hits a home run +550
1% Wainwright to record the win +330

Cardinals are an outstanding 23-13 when playing against a winning record team during the second half of this season. Wainwright is 17-4 when facing a NL team that is batting no better than 0.245 on the season and 11-1 in the second half of this season.

Betting against home favorites with a money line between -175 and -250 with a winning record on the season and is on a 6 or more-game win streak has earned a 28-28 record for 50% winning bets over the last five seasons. There is more, of course. The average wager has been a +197 DOG wager and has made the Dime bettor a $24,500 profit betting on these 56 games.

Take the St. Louis Cardinals using the money line.

Las Vegas vs LA Chargers

8:20 PM EST Monday, October 4, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points

The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and are only the fourth team in NFL history to win two of their first three games in overtime. Th Raiders have won the last two road games against the Chargers, but they have not won three straight since 2001. The Chargers are a winning record team through Week 3 for the first time since 2014. Interesting to note that these two teams have squared off on Monday Night Football 10 times with each team winning five. The road team has won five of the last six and the home team has not won since the Chargers won in a 12-6 all-FG game back in 1995.  Enough of the history lesson. Let’s move on to the stuff that matters most.

Betting on any team that is facing an opponent that is averaging 375 or more total yards-per-game and with that team having gained 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games has earned an outstanding 37-12-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and 21-6-1 ATS spanning the last three seasons.

LC head coach Gruden is 0-7 ATS following a win of three or fewer points.

From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS when they have won the turnover battle, having committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the last five seasons.

Tampa Bay vs New England
8:15 PM EST, Saturday, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the UNDER

Betting UNDER in a matchup of streaks has paid off well over the past 10 seasons. Betting UNDER with a road team on a three or more-game OVER streak (Bucs) and being hosted by a team that is on a 3 or more-game UNDER streak has seem the UNDER go 21-11 over the past 10 seasons.

Betting UNDER where the home team is coming off a double-digit upset loss has earned an 72-27-1 record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if that upset loss was by 14 or more points, then the UNDER improves to 46-15-1 for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Pittsburgh vs Green Bay

4:25 PM EST, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the UNDER

I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game with any team regardless of home or away (Steelers) that are coming off an embarrassing double-digit loss to a divisional foe and has a win percentage of 20 to 40% on the season has earned a 38-9-1 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle has earned a 9-2 UNDER record spanning the past three seasons.

Steelers head coach Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER facing a suspect defense that is allowing 28 or more PPG in games played over the past three seasons. Steelers are 22-7 UNDER for 75% in a road game and coming off an upset loss as a home favorite.

Seattle vs San Francisco
4:05 PM EST, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points

The betting frenzy continues with the love-affair the public is having betting on the road dog Seahawks. With a line at now SF as a 2.5-point favorite has me going to window aggressively and even will add a small amount of 1% on the money line at -133 or lower. I also suggest betting this game placing 50% of your 4% (4-UNIT) bet amount pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add 25% of your 4-Unit bet size if Seattle scores first and scores via any scoring play except a safety. Add the remaining 25% if Seattle has a 10-point lead. These in-game bets are valid for the first half only. So, if SF gets out to a strong start it, you may end up with only the 50% preflop bet.

From the predictive models I have developed over two decades, we learn that the 49ers are 17-3 ATS and 20-0 SU in home games in which they had fewer turnovers than their opponent and scored at least 27 points in games played over the past 10 seasons.

Tennessee vs NY Jets

1:00 PM EST Sunday, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Jets plus the points

I like taking these types of NFL dogs and adding no more than 1-Unit to the money in addition to the 4-UNIT amount wagered with the spread. Over the course of the entire season, these sprinkles will add more profits to your bottom line. 

Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they lost to the turnover battle by two or more has earned a 98-53-1 ATS record over the last five seasons. Drilling down a bit further in to the massive database we learn that betting on underdogs that are facing a struggling defense forcing less than one turnover-per-game and coming off a game with a turnover margin of 3 or worse has earned an incredible 25-5 ATS record for 83.3% winning bets and sprinkle has earned an 19-11 straight-up record over the past five seasons. 

The Jets are 0-3 for the third consecutive season after the team's 26-0 loss against the Broncos. It is the first time ever that the Jets have been 0-3 in three consecutive seasons. These losses were against the best defenses in the NFL, especially Denver. So, now they face a Tennessee defensive unit that has forced just one turnover this season/ That lone take-away occurred in a Week 1 interception by safety Kevin Byrd. My research makes me confident you will see better blocking, fewer mistakes in pass routes, and superior chemistry in the play calling between OC LeFleur and their rookie QB Zach Wilson. 

Carolina vs Dallas

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 3, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

2-Unit Best Bet OVER Carolina team TOTAL

2-UNIT Best Bet OVER Dallas team TOTAL

Betting the OVER in the first four weeks of the regular season with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a double-digit win over a divisional rival has earned a 25-11 OVER record for 69.5% winning bets over the past five seasons. In games with a total of 50 or more points, the OVER is 7-2 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

No doubt, the loss of McCaffrey is monumental, but we have seen a rejuvenated Sam Darnold lead the offense with his arm and also his legs scoring two rushing TDs in their win over the Texans last Thursday. Of course, Dallas is much better than the Texans, but Dallas secondary is very suspect and Darnold will use play action often to free the linebackers and have time to scan the field for the best situation. So, I see Carolina scoring points and like playing OVER their team total of 22.5 points and OVER Dallas team points at 27.5 points at even money. 

Kansas City vs Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the OVER

This will be the first time that former Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be back at the Lincoln Financial Field. His Chiefs have lost 2 straight games and have not lost three straight since the 2017 season, in which Alex Smith was then benched in favor of Mahomes. Chiefs defense is allowing 31.7 PPG and the Eagles offense is young, but very gifted with elite vertical speed. KC defense has not been able to mount any sort of pass rush and now face a quick QB in Hurts, who can easily extend plays making the Chiefs secondary even more vulnerable to the deep routes. 

I think the game plan for the Chiefs will be simply to put more points on the scoreboard than the Eagles and get into a big-time shootout. 

Betting the OVER with any team coming off a divisional matchup loss and facing a team that is coming off a road loss to a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 55-23 record for 71% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. 

Eagles are on a 9-1 OVER streak when facing a poor defense that is allowing 5 or more rushing yards per game. Chiefs are 10-2 OVER in road games off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional foe. 

Arizona State vs UCLA

10:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

5% 10-UNIT Best bet on ASU plus the points. 

Betting on road teams in game lined with 3.5 points on either side of pick that outgained their previous opponent by more than 125 total yards and facing a host that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned a 72-28-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

Saturday's game will feature two potent rushing offenses that are fueled by their running quarterbacks. UCLA has gained 200 or more rushing yards in seven of its last 10 games and has held the advantage in the run game in 10 consecutive games. Arizona State is at 211.5 rushing yards per game this season, second best in the conference, while averaging 3.8 rushing touchdowns in each contest. The biggest difference between these two similar teams is the significantly weaker secondary of UCLA. They are getting scorched for 331 passing YPG, which ranks fifth worst in the nation. Jayden Daniels has increased his completion percentage from 58.3 last season to 72.6 this season, which is the third-largest improvement at +14.3 percent in the FBS with a minimum of 75 attempts each year. 

Bet ASU plus the points as a 5% 10-UNIT Best Bet

Indiana vs Penn State

7:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

4% Best Bet 8-UNIT on the UNDER

I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game lined between 49.5 and 57 points with a home team that is averaging fewer than one turnover per game and have committed no more than one turnover in four consecutive games has earned a highly profitable 64-25 UNDER record good for 72% wining bets over the last ten seasons. 

PSU is 22-10 UNDER in home games coming off game installed as a favorite that they did not cover the spread. Bet the UNDER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

Mississippi vs Alabama

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

4% Best Bet on Mississippi plus the points and a 1% amount on the money line

After Ole Miss won in back-to-back season of 2014 and 2015, Alabama has won five consecutive games in this SEC series, outscoring the Rebels 298-132. Since 2013, the Crimson Tide are 54-2 in Tuscaloosa. The two losses came against No. 1 LSU 46-41 in 2019, the other was to No. 15 Ole Miss 43-37in 2015. After the 2015 loss in Week 3, the Crimson Tide went on to win the National Championship over Clemson capping off a 12-game win streak. 

The Rebels top the nation with 635.3 yards of offense per game, are fourth with 7.65 per play and slot fourth in rushing offense at 298.7 per contest. They have committed just two turnovers.

QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, throwing for 997 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception. He has rushed for five scores. He also passed for 365 yards and two TDs in last season’s 63-48 loss and having that experience is invaluable knowing too, that he will be facing a Crimson Tide defensive unit that has regressed significantly from previous seasons. 

Florida gashed the Tide for 245 rushing yards on 43 rushing plays. The Florida defense did not even gain100 rushing yards tallying just 91 yards on 28 carries against the Florida defense. I believe Mississippi is superior on both sides of the ball comparted to Florida and is why I think the upset has very real potential Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa. 

Oklahoma vs Kansas State

3:30 PM EST, October 1, 2021

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on Oklahoma minus the points

Betting on road teams with an elite defensive team allowing 8 or fewer first-half-points per game and coming off a hard-fought win of 6 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 30-7-1 ATS record good for 81% wining bets. Drilling down a bit further to include teams in the situation installed as a road favorite and the results improve to a remarkable 23-3-1 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

From the predictive models, Oklahoma will outgain Kansas State by at least two or more-YPPL and have earned a highly profitable 10-3 SATS the last 3 seasons and 92-29 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

Michigan vs Wisconsin

Noon EST PM EST, October 1, 2021

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points

Michigan is off to a 4-0 start to their season and will look to make it five straight with a win for the first time in 20 seasons when they visit the Badgers in Madison. This is also the first road game for the Wolverines, who have lost the last 5 meetings in Madison.

The Badgers failed to appear in the AP-25 top rankings after a 41-13 loss Saturday to 9th ranked Notre Dame. The score was quite misleading though, as the Badgers made far too many mistakes and turnovers including TWO pick-6 and special teams TDs in the 4th quartter. They had a 13-10 lead in the 4th stanza before completely imploding. They are an incredibly good defensive team and especially at stopping the run. They held ND to just 9 yards rushing and are allowing 23 RYPG over their first three games. 

Michigan is averaging 350 RYP and 47 PPG in their four games but struggled in their conference opener against Rutgers. Despite leading 20-3 at the half, they had just 2 FD in the second half and held on for 20-13 win and were ‘out-statted’ in the box score too. I see Wisconsin dominating both sides of the line-of-scrimmage and winning this game potential in cruise-control fashion. 

From my predictive models, Wisconsin is expected to outgain Michigan by 150 to 200 total yards and in past games when they have achieved this level of performance, they have earned a 28-7 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

No. 5 Iowa vs Maryland

8:00 PM EST Friday, October 1, 2021

4% Best Bet OVER the posted total

The OVER is 10-3-1 in week 5 games in which the teams involved in the matchup have seen the UNDER cash in each of their first four games over the past 10 seasons. The markets has underpriced the scoring capabilities of both teams in this matchup. The OVER is 108-54-4 in week 5 action with both teams undefeated and 23-12 OVER if the line is between 3.5 points on either side of pick. Plus, it the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points the OVER is 10-5-1 for 67% winning bets. 

The Hawkeyes have scored at least 24 points in all four games this year, their longest streak to start a season since 2015. Their previous longer streak was an eight-game streak to begin the 2010 season. Iowa QB Spencer Petras had 2 touchdown passes markig his first multi-TD game of the season last week. Petras has now led Iowa to 10 straight wins, the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind Alabama (18) and Oklahoma (12), throwing 12 TDs and three interceptions in those games. 

Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 384 yards against Kent State, 10 yards shy of tying a career high. His 75.5 completion percentage (111-for-147) leads FBS among players with at least 75 attempts. The Terrapins are 4-0 for the first time since 2016, marking their last 5-0 start since 2001, in which they won their first seven games on their way to a 10-2 finish and an invite to the Orange Bowl.

Maryland head coach Locksley is 27-13 OVER playing a game on a short week. Iowa HC Ferentz is 22-11 OVER facing above average offensive teams averaging 450 or more-yards-per-game. 

Virginia vs Miami (Fla)

7:30 PM EST, September 30, 2021

5% or 10-UNIT  Best bet on UVA plus the points

The line opened with Miami favored by 3.5 points and early bettor action has moved the market to Miami -3. Both teams are 2-2 SU on the season and this is a pivotable game for both programs. Miami QB D’Eriq King is listed as questionable and even if he does play is not likely to be even close to 80% full strength. The reason this big bet is being released so early in the week is that the line is likely to move closer to pick-em than say 4.5 points. 

UVA head coach Mendenhall is 20-7-1 ATS in his coaching career coming off a back-to-nack games losing the turnover battle. Miami head coach Diaz is a money-losing 1-8 ATS off of a home win. 

Betting on road teams that are coming off a game forcing zero turnovers and now facing an opponent that is coming off four consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover has earned a highly profitable 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. 55% of the winning bets covered the spread by at least 7 points. 

Supporting the SU win by UVA is a money line situational angle that has earned a 20-14 record for 60% winning bets that have averaged a +180 wager. Bet on road teams that are coming off back-to-back games allowing 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt and taking on a host that allowed 5.5 passing yards-per-attempt in their last game. I state confidently that UVA will win this game outright even if Miami’s King starts and even greater margin if he does not. 

Philadelphia vs Dallas

8:20 PM EST Monday, September 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points

Dallas is 40-19 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 300 or more passing yards; 36-18 ATS in home games coming off a game in which they outgained 75 or more rushing yards. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 23-8-1 ATS after a two game road trip; 26-9 ATS in home gamers off of a road win.

From the predictive models and machine learning applications I fully expect Dallas to score at least 28 points. In past games, in which they scored 28 or more points in a home game facing a divisional foe, they are 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets. Plus, they are an incredible 42-9 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points and gaining more rushing yards than their divisional opponent.

Seattle vs Minnesota

4:25 PM EST, September 26, 2021

4% Best Bet UNDER

Betting the UNDER with any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite, as is Seattle, and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more point has earned a highly profitable 32-9 UNDER record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. 24 of the 31 winning bets went UNDER by an average of 7 or more points. 

An alternative strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size for a 4% play and then look to add 25% more at 59.5 points and 62.5 points, BUT ONLY if this occurs in the first half of the game. 

Bet the UNDER for a 4% Best Bet

Ryan is the reigning No. 1 ranked NFL professional hitting 65.8% ATS for the 2020 season. This 4% (4-Unit) Total is reinforced by an 79% wining situational angle and LIVE in GAME betting strategy that Ryan will be executing during this late afternoon game. 

LA Chargers vs Kansas City

1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 26, 2021

4% Best Bet on Kansas City minus the points

The Chargers lost at home to the Cowboys in Week 2. It marked their 16th loss of 7 or fewer points since the 2019 season, most in the NFL. They had 12 costly drive stopping penalties costing them 99 yards marking the most mistakes and penalty yards since Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens 36-35 despite leading by 11 through three quarters. It marked the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs blew a double-digit lead entering the fourth stanza. Now, 29-1 with a double-digit lead entering the fourth. 

Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has shown similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. The Chargers has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays, so Chiefs will look to get the ground game well established early on knowing they allowed 6.4 YPR to the Cowboys ground attack.  The Rams defense, by the way, allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense).

The Chiefs will be a major test of that defensive philosophy given their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay’s 253 pass plays. The Chargers defense, like all other defenses that face the Chiefs, will choose between a double-team of Hill or Kelce. The Ravens doubled Hill and gave up seven catches for 109 yards to Kelce. 

The Chargers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game spanning the past three seasons. 

From the predictive side of things, The Chiefs are expected to score at least 28 points in this game and are 17-8 ATS for 678% winning bets in games played over the past 5 seasons when scoring 28+ points. 

Arizona vs Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2021

4% Best Bet on Jacksonville plus the points and add a small sprinkle using the money line.

Kyler Murray is the first QB in NFL history to have at least three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games of a season. Trevor Lawrence's 84 pass attempts are the fourth most by any QB in the Super Bowl era over his first two career games, behind Joe Burrow (97), Kyler Murray (94) and Mike Glennon (86). Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 350 or more yards in 15 straight games and is the second-longest streak in NFL history. However, my predictive models show solid expectations that this will be the game that ends that streak. 

Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games by double digits. However, past teams, who have lost 6 straight by double digits, and installed as a 7.5 to 11.5 point underdog has earned an 8-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Further good news for the Jags are that 0-2 home dogs in Week 3 are 10-4 ATS over the last five seasons.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021

4% Best bet on the Bengals plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. 

Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 20-38 ATS off of or 2 or more UNDER game results. The Bengals are 62-31 using the money line making 35 units-per-unit bet when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards over the last 30 seasons. In Cincinnati's 20-17 loss to Chicago, the Bengals committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a lost fumble. Cincinnati went the entire 2020 season without committing four or more turnovers in a single game. Note that teams that are coming off a game with 4 or 5 turnovers and now facing an opponent that they previously defeated are 18-12 for 60% ATS over the last three seasons and when installed as a dog, has earned a 10-4 ATS mark for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Chicago vs Cleveland 

1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021

8-UNIT Best bet on the OVER

Betting on the OVER with any team, like Cleveland, who is coming off a win in which they did not cover the spread and now facing an opponent, who is coming off a home win has earned a highly profitable 44-9 OVER record good for 83% winning bets over the past five seasons. 27 of the 44 winning bets went over the total by a minimum of 7 points. 

From the predictive models, Cleveland is expected to gain at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games in which Cleveland gained 6 or more YPPL, the OVER has 10-1 for 91% winning bets over the last three seasons. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 in games in which the Chicago defense allowed 6 or more YPPL over the last three seasons. 

Colorado State vs Iowa
3:30 PM EST, September 25, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Colorado State

CSU is coming off a double digit road win and are 25-11 ATS in the next game. CSU head coach Addazio is 14-3 ATS in road games facing a non-conference foe and 17-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. He is also 12-4 ATS as a road dog facing a winning record program.

Is Iowa the 5th best team in the nation and are they better than 6th-ranked Penn State? My answer is positively not! Iowa and Colorado State are meeting for the first time ever. Iowa beat Kent State at home last week, 30-7. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS. The last time Iowa had a longer streak was 11 games between 1959 and 1960.  Colorado State earned its first win of the season last week at Toledo, 22-6. You may remember I had Toledo +17-point underdog, who had Notre Dame on the ropes before losing by just 2-points. The Rams did not allow a touchdown in their win over Toledo, which was the first time since 2016 against Fresno State.

Trey McBride leads the Rams in receptions (30) and receiving yards (339). McBride has been responsible for 46.9 percent of the Rams' receptions this season. I believe you will see a much more balanced offensive attack from the Rams because Iowa is going to bracket McBride in underneath and over the top routes.

Houston vs Oakland

9:40 PM EST, September 24, 2021

4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet on the OVER

Betting on the OVER with a total of 8 or 8.5-tunsd and coming off a game in which the bullpen was hammered for 5 or more runs and playing the first game of a series has earned an outstanding 62-21 record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

NY Yankees vs Boston

7:10 PM EST, September 24, 2021

4% (4-Unit) Best bet on the Red Sox using the money line

The Yankees playoff aspirations or the lack of them can be pointed to their poor record against the divisional opponents. Yankees are just 30-37 losing 27 units facing an AL East foe this season. Boston is 35-17 after three or more home games this season. 

Eovaldi has been exceptional in his last three starts against the Yankees allowing no more than two earned runs in each start. Plus, over 12 starts against the Yankees, he has amassed a 2.59 ERA and a 0.973 WHIP. Bet the Red Sox

Kansas City vs Detroit

7:10 PM EST, September 24, 2021

4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet OVER

From the predictive models both teams are expected to have at least 1 multiple-run-inning and the OVER has won 77% of the bests in these games. 

Kansas City took two of three games at Cleveland prior to the postponement. Salvador Perez made history on Monday with his 46th homer this season, breaking Johnny Bench's single season record for most long balls by a primary catcher.

The Tigers are painfully aware how dangerous Perez is at the plate. He's hit three homers off their pitchers this season and 26 in his career, second only to the 28 he's hit against Minnesota. With both teams games getting cancelled Wednesday and had a scheduled day off Thursday, so they are well rested offensively, but the starters are pitching on normal rest. 

Houston vs LA Angels

9:38 PM EST Thursday, September 23, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Houston Astros using the money line.

The Angels have been a money-burning 9-22 losing 11.2 units-per-unit bet against the money line in home games when facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better in games played this season. They are also 22-41 in home games facing a RH starting pitcher this season. Houston skipper Baker is 27-10 when facing a SP sporting a solid ERA of 3.70 or lower in games played this season.

Betting on any team with a very good starter with an ERA

Dallas vs LA Chargers

4:25 PM EST, September 19, 2021

5% Best Bet on the Chargers

I have never given out a 10-unit play and my 5% and 5-UNIT best bets have always been my top-rated strongest best bets for more than a decade.   

The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. However, that is more than offset by the loss of tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense that is extremely weak in the back end going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys will not pass this test this afternoon.

Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys' Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a significantly bruised shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense and the same role be repeated in this matchup.

Dallas is 4-14 ATS off a game in which their QB had 50 passing attempts.

From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are expected to score 27 or more points, force Dallas to have 2 or more turnovers, and have an edge in time-of-possession. In past Charger games over the last 10 season, they are 10-1 ATS over the last 7 seasons!

San Francisco vs Philadelphia  

1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points

Overview
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts diced up the Falcons’ dysfunctional defense, throwing for three touchdowns and 265 yards, while escaping with only one sack. News flash: The 49ers are not the Falcons in any whatsoever. In a Week 1 win over Detroit, the San Francisco defense again looked like the throttling unit of 2019, sacking Jared Goff three times and pressuring him into an interception that was returned for a TD. San Francisco’s starting running back, Raheem Mostert, had season-ending knee surgery, but his replacement, Elijah Mitchell, played well and should continue to do so and is highly recommended for your Daily Fantasy teams.

A matchup that the 49ers have had time to prepare for is the Eagkes defensive front, specificallt Fletcher Cox and Hargrave, who has been underrated fo the past several seasons. Last week Hargrave showed that he is one of the best interior pass rushers winning 48% of all rushes on the QB including double teams. The 49er OL allowed just one pressure last week so, 49ers will be prepared to minimize their impact.

The Numbers

Betting on road teams that are facing a host who allowed 24 or more PPG last season and is coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points has earned a 32-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 NFL seasons. Over the last 10 season, this angle has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winning bets.

From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are expected to score at least 28 points. NFL road teams since 2017 that have scored 28 or more points are a solid 124-39 ATS and the 49ers in this role are 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.

Buffalo vs Miami
1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on Miami getting the points 

I like the idea of adding a sprinkle, no more than 1.0 units, on the money line.

Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions with 10 thefts last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright and that will be a very tough assignment against the Dolphins defensive front seven.

Bet on home teams off of a win over a divisional foe and in a matchup of two teams that had winning records last season has earned a 42-12-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 9-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

LA Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colts and take the points

Betting on underdogs that were solid passing teams last season averaging 250 or more PYPG and are coming off a game where they defense was diced up for more than 7 yards per pass attempt has earned a 30-5 ATS 86% record over the last 10 seasons.

From the predictive models, the Colts are expected to score 28 or more points and have at least 125 rushing yards. NFL teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 310-56 ATS record over the last five seasons and the Colts dressed in this role are 9-1 ATS.

Auburn vs Penn State

7:30 PM EST, September 18, 2021

5% Top-Rated Best Bet on Penn State minus the points

ESPN College Game Day is on the Happy Valley Campus and Auburn will be playing in by far the largest stadium (111K) in program history. Making it an even greater home field advantage is the fact that this is a Penn State White Out game, which everyone of the 111K fans will be wearing white. There be an almost invisible sliver in the third deck of Auburn fans. My WagerTalk colleague Ralph Michaels makes PSU the greatest home field advantage giving them 6.5 points in Prime Time Night Games.

SEC teams installed as 7 or fewer-point points are a money-losing 9-18 ATS for 33% wins facing a Big Ten foe. The Lions are roaring and is a team that is only going to get better as the season goes on. James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he was hired by PSU and knows the SEC conference first-hand. While at Vanderbilt, he went 8-3-1 ATS in home games including a defeat of Auburn. The best fact of all is that Franklin despite all of the negative media attention on him and hi program last season is on a 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS run coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. He is also 40-16 ATS  off a win and 14-3 ATS off a game scoring 37 or more points.

From the predictive side of things, my machine learning models show a very high probability that PSU will score 31 or more points and will gain 450 or more offensive yards. PSU in home games, scoring 28 or more yards and gaining 450 or more total yards is 25-4 ATS for 86.2% ATS wins.

Ohio University vs Louisiana Lafayette        

Thursday, 9/16/2021 9:45 PM

4% Best Bet on LL Rajin Cajuns minus the points

Betting on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that is a team allowing 28 to 34 PPG and hosting a guest that is averaging 16 to 21 PPG has earned a 30-8 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.

From the predictive models the Padres are a highly profitable 92-37 in road games when their starter has completed more than 6 innings of work and they have scored multiple runs in 2 or more innings spanning the last five seasons.

Baltimore vs Las Vegas

Week 1 8:15 PM EST, Monday, September 13, 2021

4% best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points

A few quick-hitters. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a solid 23-11 ATS in games with a total of 46 or more points. He is 18-7 ATS in the first two weeks of the regular season. 

From the predictive models, Baltimore is expected to gain well over 125 rushing yards and would not be at all surprised if they gained over 200 tonight. Baltimore is 86-27-1 ATS in games gaining at least 125 rushing yards. They are 9-1 ATS over the last three seasons in games they averaged 5.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS over the last three seasons in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards. 

Bet Baltimore for a 4-Unit Best Bet

Chicago vs LA Rams

8:20 PM EST, Sunday, September 12, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

I will make this short and sweet. The predictive models and applications expect the Rams to gain 380 or more yards and produce a 12.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio. The OVER is 12-4 spanning the last five seasons when the Rams have had a YPPT ratio of 12.5 or lower. The OVER is 8-2 for 80% when the Bears defense has allowed an opponent a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio. Home teams that have had a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio and gained 380 or more total yards are 91-15-1 OVER for 86% winning bets over the last five seasons and covered the total by an average of 15 points!

Bet the OVER for a 10-UNIT Best Bet

CWS vs Oakland

9:40 PM EST, Wednesday, September 8, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Oakland using the money line

Betting on home teams with an OBP of not better than 0.300 over their last 15 games, who is facing a SP that is struggling with a 6.50 or worse ERA over his last 10 starts has earned an outstanding 40-18 record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Detroit vs Pittsburgh

6:35 PM EST, Wednesday, September 8, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Detroit using the money line

Bet on any AL team in an interleague matchup that sports an ugly 0.310 OBP, is starting a pitcher with adequate rest of at least 5 days, and facing a very poor SP that sports a 1.65 or higher WHIP on the season. This set of parameters has earned a 31-7 record for 81% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 10-0 over the last five seasons. 

Minnesota vs Cleveland

6:10 PM EST, Wednesday, September 8, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

Quick Hitters: Twins manager Baldelli is 37-19 UNDER in September played games. Francona is 88-48 when facing a team that averages 0.33 steals-per-game when the game occurs in the second half of the regular season. Cleveland is 50-28 UNDER playing with double revenge in games played over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 19-7 UNDER following three consecutive games throwing at least 4 innings in each one, spanning the last two seasons. 

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the total

Notre Dame vs Florida State

7:30 PM EST, Sunday, September 5, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet Florida State plus the points

FSU head coach Mike Norvell has 10 returning starters on offense including the QB red shirt sophomore transfer Jordan Travis. He will have plenty of targets this season including graduate transfer Andrew Parchman, who spent the last two years in Kansas. He made 20 starts for Kansas tallying 1,028 receiving yards on 89 catches and 9 TDs. Look for him to make key catches in this game, especially on 2nd and 3rd downs to keep the chains moving.

Ironically, Guard Dillon Gibbons transferred from Notre Dame and you can bet this 6-5 321 lb lineman will want to to show what his former team could have had. Overall, the FSU L is much better than last year’s edition because they have played together in at least one seasons and have solid chemistry across the line too.

Betting on under dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first four weeks of the season that return at least 8 starters including the QB and had struggles on defense allowing 425 or more YPG in the previous season has earned a highly profitable 59-24-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 21-7-1 for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 using the money line, whose defense struggled last season allowing 5.8 or more yards-per-play and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning this season has earned an amazing 28-20 SU record, averaging a +210 money line bet and making the $100 bettor a $3,950 profit over the last 10 seasons. Over the last three seasons this angle has produced a 9-8 record, BUT has made $1500 for the $100 bettor.

Bet FSU plus the points as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Boise State vs UCF

Week 1 7:00 PM EST, Thursday, September 2 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Boise State plus the points

On the gridiron, I like to bet these underdogs as a combination bet that consists of 80 to 90% of your normal bet size placed on the line and the remaining 10-20% bet using the money line. So, for this game and if you are $100 bettor for a 4-Unit bet, place $85.00 on the line and $15.00 using the money line. Remember though, this is a recommended strategy, and you always have the option to simply bet the game getting the points.

This is going to be a great game to watch that will have several scoring runs by both teams, who have first-year head coaches. UCF has former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn, who inherits a terrific offense that averaged 568 yards and 42 PPG. New head BSU head coach is Andy Avalos, who was the defensive coordinator for Oregon and has nine defensive returning starters on one of the best defenses in the Mountain West Conference.

Hank Bachmeier was named the starting QB last week and is a 3-year junior signal caller that is vastly underrated. He has been injured in past seasons preventing him from taking his game to those next levels. He has played in only 13-games over the past two seasons. In his first start of his college career he threw for 407 yards in a win against Florida State on August 31, 2019. He has had 6-games completing over 65% of his passes and three of those were over 70%. His favorite target, senior Khalil Shakir, has caught 131 balls for 1,761 yards, and 13 TDs. Bachmeier will have far more weapons this season in WR-X Stefan Cobbs, WR-H CT Thomas, and junior transfer Davis Koetter.

UCF is just 4-13 ATS in games played over the last three seasons with a total of 65 or more points. From the predictive models there is a very high probability that BSU will score 28 or more points. In past games in which they have scored 28 or more points, they are 10-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 70% ATS over the last 30 seasons spanning 210 games.

Bet Boise State as a 4-Unit Best Bet

NY Yankees vs Oakland Athletics

7:30 PM EST, Sunday, August 29, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on the Oakland A’s on the money line

Betting on home teams that are batting 0.215 or worse over their last 10 games and starting a pitcher, who did not issue a single walk in his last start are 102-60 for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

This game is on the west coast starting at 4:30 PM Est and the Yankees are 19-28 in day games this season losing 20 units per unit wagered. They are 13-23 in road games having won four of their last five games in games played over the last two seasons. Oakland is a solid and highly profitable 75-36 when facing a left-handed starter over the last three seasons.

Paul Blackburn is being evaluated by the marketplace as an average replacement arm, but his underlying metrics (projected FIP of 4.40 to 4.80) are significantly better than the market.

Oakland has nine right-handed or switch-hitting bats on the roster, though Matt Olson, who has always crushed same-sided pitching can frustrate any left-handed starter will certainly be in every lineup. So, look for 8 RH bats and Olson tonight.

The A’s are a solid104 wRC+ against lefties ranking 6th in MLB in 2021 after ranking fourth in 2019 (116 wRC+) and third in 2018 (107 wRC+). So, there is tremendous value to betting against the public sentiment that is overwhelmingly bullish for the Yankees in every game they now play.

Baltimore vs Washington

6:00 PM EST, Saturday, August 28, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points

This is the first of many 4-Unit Best Bets I will be releasing for the NFL preseason games and MLB action for Saturday. So, please check back for those new releases. All of the best bets will be posted no later than 1:00 EST, Saturday and 10:00 AM EST, Sunday. 

Let’s get right into the analytics and situational tendencies for this matchup. Underdogs that won their previous NFL preseason game by 6 or fewer points have earned a 27-7 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five preseasons. Underdogs that scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last two preseason games have earned a 135-80 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last 15 preseasons.

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, the Football Team is an outstanding and highly profitable 30-9 ATS for 77% winning bets when they have held an opponent to 5.0 or fewer yards per pass attempt.

Philadelphia Eagles vs NY Jets

7:30 PM EST, August 27, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

There is uncertainty whether Eagles rookie head coach Nick Sirianni will play the starters in the final preseason game against the Jets. Given that the Eagles were 4-11 and finished in last place in the worst division in NFL history, I believe strongly, that the starters will play at least the first half.

     The Eagles and Jets did have LIVE snaps Wednesday and Thursday and starters may need more time to recover from those drills. In past preseasons, there were 4-games played and then followed by 10-days off before the Week-1 game. This season has three preseason games and a 16-day layoff before they play the Atlanta Falcons in Week-1 action.

     Sirianni did state in Thursday morning’s press conference that the staff is still talking through whether the starters will play. These workouts are hardly the two-a-days that legendary head coach, Dike Vermeil, made infamous in Eagles lore. It’s the third consecutive day to get reps for a young team that then has 16 days to recover and prepare for the Falcons.

     Here is what the Jets’ head coach, Robert Saleh had to say Wednesday regarding if Zach Wilson will start. "I want to play him, I do," Saleh said. "so we’re talking about it. But right now, I’m leaning towards playing at least the starting offensive line, quarterbacks and a majority of the defensive players."   For how long?  "We’re still talking about that," Saleh said. "No more than a half, for sure."  

     The Eagles QB, Jalen Hurts, has not received loving support from the fan base this preseason. However, that may change given how well he threw the ball in the two LIVE game situations against the Jets on Wednesday and Thursday. He completed 13 of 27 passes including two TDs Wednesday and then completed 13 of 17 passes including FIVE TD’s. Combined he completed 26 of 37 passes for 70.3% completions with seven TD’s.

     So, let’s transition to the predictive models and projections for this game. The Jets are expected to pass for at least 300 yards. The Jets are 12-2 OVER in the last 15 preseason games when gaining 300 or more passing yards. The Eagles defense is not good and have big weakness in coverage over the middle of the field. No matter, who is under center for the Jets, they will be able to complete passes to receivers open with space to gain a lot of yards after the catch.

     Here is a NFL preseason angle that has done quite well over the last 15 seasons. Betting the OVER with a road teams that is coming off a game in which they scored six or fewer points has earned a 47-19 record good for 71% winning bets.  The Eagles were shutout 35-0 by the New England Patriots in their last game.

Bet the OVER for a 5-UNIT Best Bet

NY Yankees vs Oakland Athletics 

9:40 PM EST, August 26, 2021 

5-UNIT Best Bet on the Athletics using the money line 

The Yankees are on an 11-game win streak and the A’s are treading water. So, this is a bet that will have a contrarian taste to it and we have already seen a mountain of betting on the Yankees. Here are a few quick hitters. A’s are 9-3 after having lost four of their last five games this season. They are also 28-14 after playing three or more consecutive home games, this season. 45-23 after two consecutive games where the bullpen threw 9 or more innings in games played over the last three seasons.  

A’s starting pitcher James Kaprielan, who defeated the Yankees in the Bronx back on June 18. In that start he went 5 ⅔ innings, allowed 3ER on just 3 hits, allowed one walk, and struck out seven. He is 5-2 in 7 home starts with a terrific 1.47 ERA and a 0.953 WHIP spanning 43 innings of work and striking out 42 batters.  

The Yankees start James Taillon, who pitches much worse on the road than at Yankee Stadium this season. He has allowed three earned runs on 12 hits spanning 10 1/3 inning in his last two starts. So, fatigue and a weary pitching arm is what I have seen in these starts.  

Since 2004, road teams that are on an 11 or more-game win streak and facing a non-divisional foe have been a money-burning 5-11 for 31% and a –38% ROI since 2007.  

Cincinnati vs Milwaukee

7:07 PM EST, Wednesday, August 25, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Reds using the +1.5 Run Line

Betting against favorites using the Run Line that are lined between -125 and -175 on the money line, that are coming off a game where their bullpen did not allow a run and now facing an opponent whose bullpen imploded allowing 6 or more runs has earned a 49-22 Run Line record for 69% wining bets over the last five seasons, averaging a terrific +140 underdog bet.

San Francisco vs NY Mets

7:10 PM EST, Wednesday, August 25, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

Giants are 35-17 OVER following a game in which they allowed no more than one run in games played over the last three seasons.

From the predictive side, we learn that the Mets in home games have earned a 13-4 OVER record following a game in which they scored no more than one run and had at least one Multiple-Run-Inning in the current game, over the last three seasons. The Giants are 16-8 on the road following a game in which held their opponent to no more than one run and that opponent had at least one Multiple-Run-Inning in the current game, over the last three seasons.

4-Unit Best Bet OVER

Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia

7:05 PM EST, Wednesday, August 25, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

Betting the UNDER in a matchup where the road team has a tremendous bullpen posting a 1.25 or lower season-to-date WHIP and is starting a pitcher that was hammered allowing 5 or more runs in each of his last starts has produced a 30-9 UNDER record good for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Rays skipper Cash is 72-48 UNDER in a road game after allowing 4 runs or less in three consecutive games. Phillies are 15-5 in home games when facing a starting pitcher that is averaging 1.75 or fewer walks-per-start in games played this season.

From the predictive models we learn that the UNDER is 11-3 for 79% winning bets in home Phillies games in which Wheeler pitches into at least the start of the 7th inning.

LA Angels vs Cleveland

7:10 PM EST, August 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the LA Angels

This game is taking place in Williamsport, PA at the Little League World series. Both teams have arrived and hanging out with the teams. So, weather is an issue with the passing of Henri off to the east, but I do believe this game will get played and rain or any weather related stoppages will be zero.

Betting on road teams (Angels are the road team in this neutral site game) that are lined between a +125 dog and a -125 favorite and batting less than 0.220 over their last 15 games and are now facing an opponent that has a very good starting pitcher on the hill that has posted an ERA of 3.00 or lower over his last 10 starts has earned a 62-30 record good for 69% winning bets over the last 15 MLB seasons and is a perfect 3-0 this season.

Bet on the Angels using the money line.

San Francisco vs Oakland

4:07 PM EST, August 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Oakland using the money line

Oakland is a solid 18-9 this season facing above average teams that hit more than 1.25 HR-per-game.

Betting on home teams that are facing an opponent that hit four or more HR in their last games and starting an elite pitcher posting an ERA of 2.50 over his last three starts has earned a 37-17 record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Bet Oakland as a 4-UNIT Best Bet using the money line.

Philadelphia vs San Diego

3:40 EST, August 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies

Betting on underdogs where the favorite is priced between -125 and -175 and the dog is coming off a where they had four or fewer hits and the favorite has had 15 consecutive games committing no more than one error in any one of those 15 games has earned a 68-35 record good for 65.5% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Bet the Phillies as a 4-UNIT Best Bet using the money line and boxed with Kyle Gibson

NY Giants vs Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, August 22, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Giants plus the points

Consider making a combination bet with this underdog by placing 80% of your 4-Unit amount on the line and the remaining 20% using the money line. Over the course of the NFL season, these strategies will add more profit and increase the season-long ROI.

4-UNIT Best Bet on Minnesota using the money line

Betting on road teams in the NFLX that are coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points and are facing a host that is coming off a double-digit win has earned an incredible 44-10-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last 25 NFL preseasons.

From the all-knowing and highly intelligent database, we learn that Cleveland is just 3-15 ATS after a preseason double-digit win and that the NY Giants are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring in single-digits in their previous game spanning the last 25 preseasons.

LA Angels vs Cleveland

4:10 EST, August 21, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Angels

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, the Angels are 40-11 for 78% winning bets that earned an outstanding 56% ROI in road games played where they at least two multiple-run-scoring-innings, spanning he last three seasons.

Cleveland is 1-9 this season after scoring 9 or more runs in the previous game.

Bet the Angels as a 4-UNIT Best Bet using the money line.

San Francisco vs Oakland

4:20 PM EST, August 21, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Oakland using the money line

Oakland is a solid 18-8 this season facing above average teams that hit more than 1.25 HR-per-game. 

Betting on home teams that are batting 0.265 or lower on the season, starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or more home runs last outing, and is now facing against a NL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or lower on the season has earned a 31-12 record for 72% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Bet Oakland as a 4-UNIT Best Bet using the money line.

Minnesota vs NY Yankees

1:05 PM EST, Saturday, August 21, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Minnesota using the money line

Here are a few quick hitters supporting this bet on the Twins. The NYY are a money-burning  18-26 in day games this season and have lost a whopping 27 units per unit bet. NYY starter Gerrit Cole is a miserable 1-7 in day starts losing 12 units in day games this season. 

From the predictive side of things, the Twins are 14-9 for 61% winning bets averaging a 150 road underdog line in road games where they scored first.

Bet the Twins using the money line

Edmonton vs British Columbia

10:00 EST, August 19, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Edmonton taking the points.

Tried and true betting angle right here. Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a win over a divisional rival in the first four weeks of the regular season, has earned an outstanding 61-23 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 27 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS over the five seasons.

BC head coach Campbell is 10-23 ATS as a home favorite in all games he has coached.

Bet Edmonton as a 4-UNIT Best Bet plus the points.

New England vs Philadelphia

7:30 PM EST, August 19, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

Betting on the UNDER in an NFLX game with a posted total between 35 and 42 points and with one of the teams coming off one or more UNDER results has earned a SOLID 73-34 record good for 68% winning bets over the last five NFL preseasons.

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that Philadelphia is not expected to score more than 21 points. New England is 10-1 UNDER in NFLX games in which they allowed 21 or fewer points.

Bet the UNDER as a 4-UNIT Best

Toronto vs Washington

7:05 PM EST, Tuesday, August 17, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet OVER

Here are a few quick hitters supporting this OVER play. Washington is 24-14 OVER when facing a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts-per-game. Toronto is 20-8 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 in games played this season.

From the predictive side of things, Toronto is 15-6-1 OVER for 71.4% winning bets this season and 49-8 OVER for 86% winning bets in road games in which they had two or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the past three seasons. The Nationals are 49-5 OVER for 91% winners in home games their guest had two or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the past three seasons.

San Diego vs Colorado

8:40 PM EST, Monday, August 16, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colorado Rockies

San Diego is a money losing 22 units on a 32-30 record when facing a team with a losing record on the season; 12-15 SU this season as a road favorite against a losing record team. Rockies are 30-15 in home games facing a NL club that is batting below 0.250 on the season; 8-2 in home games facing a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.50 or lower for the season.

Bet Colorado for a 4-Unit Best bet

Houston vs Kansas City

8:10 EST, August 16, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Kansas City Royals

Houston is a money-burning 9-20 in road games and facing a host that is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base-hits-per-game on the season. Houston is 13-19 in road games played in August over the last three months. Houston SP Jake Odorizzi is just 3-6 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.387 WHIP in 13 career starts against KC.  

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, when the Royals have been home dogs and their starter completed more innings than the opponent’s starter, has earned a 26-24 record, but by averaging a +141 underdog wager made the $100 bettor $1,200 in profits for a nice 22% ROI in games played over the last three seasons.

LA Angels vs NY Yankees

7:05 PM EST, August 16, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

This is a rescheduled game from July 1Angels are 11-2 UNDER in road games when facing an AL team that is batting 0.255 or lower on the seasons; 6-0 UNDER in road games following a game that had a combined score of 4 or fewer runs. Cole, who is coming off COVID-19, is just 3-6 as a home favorite of -145 or higher this season. Yankees are 18-7 UNDER following six or more consecutive road games. Angels are 7-0 in road games after scoring and allowing three or fewer runs in games played this season. Jose Suarez makes his first start against the Yankees of his career and he has a great advantage pitching to batters who have never faced him. On June 30th, Chapman, blew a 4-run lead throwing in the rain as the Angels scored 7 runs in the 9th to get a 11-8 victory.

Bet the UNDER for a 4-UNIT Best Bet

LA Angels vs NY Yankees

7:05 PM EST, August 16, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER

This is a rescheduled game from July 1Angels are 11-2 UNDER in road games when facing an AL team that is batting 0.255 or lower on the seasons; 6-0 UNDER in road games following a game that had a combined score of 4 or fewer runs. Cole, who is coming off COVID-19, is just 3-6 as a home favorite of -145 or higher this season. Yankees are 18-7 UNDER following six or more consecutive road games. Angels are 7-0 in road games after scoring and allowing three or fewer runs in games played this season. Jose Suarez makes his first start against the Yankees of his career and he has a great advantage pitching to batters who have never faced him. On June 30th, Chapman, blew a 4-run lead throwing in the rain as the Angels scored 7 runs in the 9th to get a 11-8 victory.

Bet the UNDER for a 4-UNIT Best Bet

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia

1:05 PM EST, Sunday, August 15, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line

3-Unit Best Bet UNDER

I recommend not placing a parlay with the Phillies + UNDER. I do recommend playing them as separate bets. For the total, betting 1.5 units pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add the remaining 1.5 units at 10.5-runs in-game. Good Luck to Us. 

The Phillies and Reds will look to win this series after splitting the first two games. The Phillies have what amounts to two aces in Zack Wheeler, who lost Game-1 of this 3-game series and Aaron Nola, who will pitch the finale this afternoon. In his last start, which was against the Dodgers, Nola was in top form striking out seven batters in just four innings of work before storms ended his start. That means 7 of the 12 outs recorded without a batted ball in play. He is the tale of two starters with one being a stud ace in home starts and the other a hard-luck mediocre starter in road games. In 10 home starts this season, he has a 2.97 ERA and 0.956 WHIP and with a very impressive 83 strikeouts in 60 2/3 innings of work. In nine day starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERSA and 0.896 WHIP fanning 66 batters over 54 2/3 innings of work. 

The Reds least offensive production has come in day games where they have batted 0.245 and scoring an average of 4.5 RPG over 46 games. Their bullpen has posted a 5.09 ERA in these road games. 

Phillies skipper Girardi is 25-9 in home day games and 27-12 as a home favorite of -150 or lower as the manager of the Phillies. For his career, Nola’s team record is 18-5 for 78% winning bets as a home favorite and with the game starting before 6:00 PM EST (day starts). The UNDER has gone 15-7-1 for 68% winning bets in these 23 starts. 

olorado vs San Francisco

9:45 EST, August 13, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Run Line betting Colorado

Betting on road teams of at least +110 in the first game of a series and facing a hot bullpen that has posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower spanning their last five games has produced a 90-75 record, averaging a +155 dog bet and making the $100 bettor a $5100 profit over the last five seasons. 

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that San Fran is just 2-12 as a home favorite of -150 and greater when the opponent has had 2 or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the last three seasons.

Cleveland vs Detroit

7:10 PM EST, August 13, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Detroit Tigers

Detroit’s Alexander is 6-0 when facing a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 9-21 following a game in which 15 or more runs were scored spanning the last three seasons. 

Vet on the Tigers for a 4-Unit Best bet

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia

7:05 PM EST, August 13, 2021

4-UNIT best Bet on the OVER

The weather has been scorching hot with humidity in the mid-90% range. The ball will fly out of Citizen’s Bank Park and pitcher’s will be taxed by these difficult conditions. 60% of the betting tickets are on the UNDER, but 63% of the money is on the OVER. Reds are 21-10 OVER when facing a struggling bullpen that converts no more than 38% of their save opportunities this season; 25-12 when facing a starter that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start, this season. 

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Play

Miami vs Colorado

8:10 PM EST, Saturday, August 7, 2021

4-Units betting on the Marlins using the money line

Betting on road teams with a solid bullpen posting an ERA of 3.75 or better on the season and is facing a host that is batting below 0.250 on the season and has a starter on a strong 10-star run posting an ERA of 3.00 or lower has earned a 41-30 record for 58% winners, but has averaged a +130 dog wager making the $100 bettor a profit of $2300 over the last five seasons.

Bet the Marlins using the money line as a 4-UNIT Best Bet.

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

7:10 PM EST, Saturday, August 7, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

The Reds are 33-15 OVER when playing against a losing record team this season and 10-2 when that opponent has a win percentage below 38%. They are also 13-2 OVER when facing a NL foe that is allowing an average of 5 or more runs-per-game this season.

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

NY Mets vs Philadelphia

4:05 PM EST, Saturday, August 7, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies

The Phillies won the first game of this 3-game series and will look to win the series this afternoon. Left-hander Ranger Suarez will be on the hill for the Phillies and he has excellent ‘stuff’ that will dominate am extremely weak hitting Ny Mets squad, who is just 12-22 when facing LH SP this season. Plus, the Mets are a money burning 4-10 in road games with double revenge.

Bet the Phillies for a 4-UNIT Amount using the money line

BRITISH COLUMBIA (0-0) at SASKATCHEWAN (0-0)  
Week 1 9:30 PM EST, August 6, 2021

4-UNIT Best bet on Saskatchewan

My predictive models and machine learning applications show a high probability that Saskatchewan will score 28 or more points. Note that they are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they score 28 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. They are also 26-10 ATS when gaining 7.5 to 8-yards-per-play over the last 15 seasons.

Bet Saskatchewan for a 4-UNIT amount.

LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants 

9:45 PM EST, July 28, 2021 

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER 

The OVER is a solid 142-77-2 for 65% winning bets spanning the last 25 seasons involving a team that has an above average slugging percentage of 0.425 and higher and is batting 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and facing a team that has a strong bullpen posting a season-to-date WHIP of 1.35 or lower.  

Dodgers manager Roberts is 26-13 OVER when facing a team that is batting 0.245 or worse; 41-20 OVER in road games facing a NL opponent that is batting 0.250 or lower with the game taking place in the second half of the season. 

Dodgers are 13-2 OVER off a loss to a divisional rival this season.  

Colorado vs LA Angels 

9:38PM EST, July 28, 2021 

8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total 

Colorado skipper Black is a solid 53-27 UNDER as a road underdog between +150 and +199; 37-19 when facing an AL West opponent. Rockies are on a 23-9 run UNDER when facing an AL West opponent over the last two seasons. Colorado is 20-9 UNDER when facing a AL team that is batting 0.265 or lower in games played over the last two seasons.  

Team that are playing their last game of the current series, starting a left-handed starter, lost the previous game by at least 5-runs, and are installed as –200 to –225 home favorites are 11-6-1 UNDER for 65% winning bets. 

Bet the UNDER for a 8-UNIT amount. 

Toronto vs Boston 

7:10 ET, July 27, 2021 

8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER 

Toronto is 20-8 UNDER when facing a host that has a winning record in the second-half of the season. Boston is 11-3 when facing an AL team with a 0.265 batting average or lower in games played in the second half of this season. Boston is 13-5 UNDER when facing a team that is averaging at least 1.25 home runs per game this season.  

Bet the UNDER as a 8-UNIT (4%) best bet.  

Atlanta Braves vs NY Mets 

4-Units betting the Mets using the money line 

7:10 PM EST, July 28, 2021 

The Mets are still holding on the lead in the NL East, but not because of their 19th-league best 0.237 team batting average or their 18th-league best 3.9 RPG. In fact, they are dead last socinrg an average of 3.5 RPG in home games. However, this is a game they can win and with some above average offensive production according to my machine learning models and applications.  

In a somewhat rare offensive occurrence, the Braves win over the Mets yesterday, saw them score in 5 innings and each one was a multiple run inning too. Teams that have scored in 5 innings and each one was scoring more than 1 run in their previous game are just 7-16 for 30% when installed as a road dog, in games played over the last five seasons.  

Braves are just 11-23 in road games having won two of their last three games spanning the last two seasons.  

Bet the NY Mets using the money line.  

CWS vs Kansas City 

8:10 PM EST, July 26, 2021 

4-Unit Best Beton the Kansas City Royals using the money line. 

Here are a few quick hitting bullet points supporting Kansas City in this game against the CWS.  

Royals manager Metheny is a solid 68-38 following a game in which they stranded three or fewer runners. The $100 bettor has made $2,650 on this angle.  

CWS bullpen has been horrid of late posting a lofty 6.95 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP over their last seven games spanning 22 innings of work. KC pen is in great form boasting a 3.25 ERA and 1.157 WHIP and is 4-0 in save opportunities.  

Bet the KC Royals for a 4-UNIT amount.  

Cincinnati vs Chicago Cubs 

4-Units betting the OVER. 

8:05 PM EST, July 26, 2021 

The Reds are 26-15 OVER when facing a team with a losing record this season; 14-5 OVER following three or more divisional games; 28-17 when the total has been between 7 and 8.5 this season.  

Take the OVER for a 4-UNIT Best Bet 

Toronto vs Boston 

7:10 ET, July 26, 2021 

4-Unit Best Bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line. 

This season, Toronto has been a money-burning 24-38 when facing a team with a winning record. Boston is a stout 41-22 this season, when facing a solid bullpen unit sporting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower. They are also 59-33 when facing a team whose hitter’s strikeout an average of at least 7 times per game, this season.  

Bet the Boston Red Sox using the money line. 

Colorado vs LA Dodgers  

9:10 PM EST, July 24, 2021 

4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER 

Rockies SP Freeland is 9-1 UNDER when facing teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least one run-per-game and 14-3 UNDER when facing teams that are averaging 1.25 or more home runs-per-game. He is also 18-2 UNDER as a road dog of at least +150 and 13-3 in road games played at night spanning the last three seasons.  

Betting the UNDER in game lined at 7 to 8.5 runs involving a road team that has a solid 2.50 ERA over his last 5 starts and after a game in which their bullpen blew a save has earned a 47-13 UNDER record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons.  This angle is already 8-2 this season.  

Washington vs Baltimore 

6:35 PM EST, July 24, 2021 

4-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total.  

Here are a few quick hitting bullet points supporting and reinforcing the OVER bet identified first by my machine learning applications. Baltimore is 33-17 OVER when facing a SP that is allowing an average of 5.5 or fewer-hits-per-game on the season, in games played this season. Washington is 15-5 OVER in games played over the last two seasons in which the total was 9 or 9.5-runs.  

Scherzer is struggling with a 6.48 ERA over his last three starts and allowing 11 ER in his last two starts at home and on the road against the San Diego Padres.  

Bet the OVER for a 4-UNIT amount.  

Texas vs Houston 

4-Units betting the UNDER. 

7:10 PM EST, July 24, 2021 

Keep an eye out for Texas starter Kyle Gibson in the news today. This may be his last start before being traded to a contender and it is possible, he could get moved prior to this start. He must start for this play to be valid. He is 4-2 with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Astros. He has faced the Astros three times in 2021 and has pitched well in each one. On June 15 he completed six innings and allowed 1 ER on seven hits. May 21, he completed 6 innings, allowing 1 ER on four hits, and on May 16, he completed 7 innings allowing 2 ER on four hits.  

Texas has completely fallen apart as a MLB team having lost 10 consecutive games. Over their last 7 games they have averaged just 1.4 RPG and batted 0.156 with a 0.214 OBP.  

Houston is 19-2 against Texas with the UNDER sporting a 13-8 record spanning the last three seasons. In 2021, the UNDER is 6-2-1 in this matchup. 

Take the UNDER 

Detroit vs Kansas City

5-Unit best bet on the OVER

The Tigers have suddenly won seven consecutive games and are on the verge of being included in the AL Wild Card race as one of the long shot contenders. They are hitting the ball and scoring runs. They are 9-4-1 OVER for 69% in road games and facing a left-handed SP. They are also 16-5 OVER this season when facing opponents that average three or fewer walks-per-game.

Detroit will have Wily Peralta on the hill and in six starts he has posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.947 WHIP and very impressive 0.47 ERA and a 0.842 WHIP spanning this last three starts. He made his first start June 19 and allowed 5 ER in an 8-3 loss to the Angels. Since, he ash allowed 1 ER over his last 5 starts, but he is vulnerable to a significant regression in this matchup based on the machine learning applications.

Kris Bubic will start for Kansas City and he has been hammered to the tune of a 10.38 ERA and a 2.154 WHIP spanning his last three starts. He has allowed 5 ER in each of these starts.

Take the OVER

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals 

1:05 ET, July 18, 2021 

4-UNIT Best Bet on the San Diego Padres using the money line 

Let us start with a betting system that has earned a highly profitable 48-17 record good for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on a road team that is starting a pitcher working on extra rest (more than 5-days) and the road team has posted a 0.350 or better on-base-percentage spanning their last 20 games. This supports the bet on the Padres.  

Neither starter for this game came into the All-Star break pitching in good form. However, I do like the fact that Musgrove has produced a 3.18 ERA and aq 0.996 WHIP when starting on grass fields this season. Nationals starter Mad Max has been solid all season, except for his last three starts where he posted a 5.17 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. His last start was against the Padres July 8 and was a horrid one lasting just 3 2/3 innings allowing 7 ER and 2 HR.  

Yesterday’s game was suspended in the bottom of the sixth inning with the Padres leading 8-4 and my understanding is that this game will be completed prior to the start of this game.  

From the predictive models, we expect that the Padres will have at least 1 Multiple-Run Inning. When they have had at least one MRI as a road favorite they have produced a 14-7 SU record this season and 33-17 for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons. Very consistent returns in this role.  

NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates 

1:05 PM EST, July 18, 2021 

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Pirates using the money line 

Betting a NL team that is facing a SP with a season-to-date WHUP of 1.15 or lower and has a very poor bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.75 and higher over their last 20 games has earned a 58-30 record good for 66% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

The Pirates and Mets have played 7 consecutive games against one another with a 4-game series prior to the All-Star break and this current 3-game set. The Pirates have done very well against the Mets winning four of the six games played and have a chance to sweep this 3-game set today. The Mets bullpen has been absolutely horrible and the All-Star break has done little to help this struggling unit. They have posted a 9.00 ERA and a 2.077 WHIP over their last seven games and six of these games have been against a bad team in the Pirates. Same result today and the Pirates get a rare sweep.  

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns

9:00 ET. July 17, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on the Milwaukee Bucks plus the points

I like making these types of underdogs a combination wager comprised of 80% of your normal 4-UNIT bet size on the line and 20% more on the money line. Over the course of a season, the money line bet will outperform the spread-only wager.

From my predictive models, the Bucks are expected to shoot better, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio over the Suns. In past games, in which the Bucks met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a remarkable 106-1 SU and 94-11-2 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks 
8:00 PM EST, July 11, 2021 
5-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER 

I will get right to it and the models are heavily on the OVER in Game-3 of the 2021 NBA Finals. Betting the OVER with a home team in a game with a total of 220 or more points, that has lost three consecutive times to the current opponent and playing their fourth game in the past 10 days has earned a 74-37-3 record OVER in regular and post-season games spanning the past five seasons. If the game is a playoff game, then the OVER is a near-perfect 14-1 OVER for 93% winning bets.  

In addition, home favorites of not more than 4-points and including all home dogs and having no more than 4-days between their previous series game have earned a 32-10-1 OVER record for 62% winning bets.  

From the predictive tools, the Bucks re expected to attempt at least 90 shots in Game-3 and over the past three seasons, they are 49-28-1 OVER for 64% winning bets when playing at this fast pace. They were the fastest paced team in the NBA this season. In road games, the Suns are 31-15-2 OVER when their opponent has attempted at least 90 shots over the past three seasons.  

Bet the OVER as a 5-UNIT Best Bet 

St. Louis vs Chicago Cubs 

7:15 PM EST, July 10, 2021 
Kwang-Hyun Kim (L) vs Zach Davies (R) 

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER 

Betting the UNDER with a road team in games where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a starting pitcher posting a season-to-date WHIP is 1.250 to 1.300 and who gave up no earned runs in his last start has earned an outstanding 39-16-5 record good for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Kim is in great form posting an ERA of 2.76 and WHIP of 1.164 over his last three starts. Davies has posted a strong 2.40 ERA and a 1.067 WHIP spanning his last three starts.  

Cardinals skipper Schildt is 16-4 UNDER following a game in which his team allowed 10 or more runs. 

Pittsburgh Pirates vs NY Mets 

4:10 PM EST, July 10, 2021 

Tyler Anderson (L) vs Marcus Stroman (R) 

4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER 

You may have seen my Tweet earlier this morning that stated the Mets are 6-0 UNDER in games with a posted total of 5.5 or lower-runs this season. DeGrom has accounted for 4 of these games and Stroman, the other two games.  Further, the Mets are 16-5 UNDER making $1,100 for the $100 bet in home games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season this season; 21-9 UNDER making $1,120 per $100 bet as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Stroman is 7-0 UNDER in home starts this season.  

Pittsburgh will have LH Tyler Anderson on the rubber and he is great form posting a 2.41 ERA and a 0.911 WHIP spanning his last three starts. In 6 day-game starts, he has a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP. Stroman is not in top form, but he has a strong history of bringing his best starts following a poor stretch. In 14 grass field starts, he has posted a 2/03 ERA and 1.102 WHIP and has allowed only 6 HR.  

Take the UNDER.  

Oakland vs Texas 
July 10, 2021 4:05 PM EST 
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Oakland A’s using the money line. 

This bet has absolutely nothing to do with last night’s disappointing loss to the Texas Rangers. This bet though does illustrate the absence of any emotional hangover connected to that loss. So many times, I have heard clients and friends alike, state that they would never bet on “Team-X” after they screwed them with a loss the night before. Do not do that to yourself as it does prevent you from objectively looking at the current day’s betting lineup. Also, because we lost with the A’s last night does not guarantee a win today. My career, like all other sports betting professionals in based on a 365-day vision that resets every morning. 

Betting on AL road teams that are starting an excellent pitcher with a season-to-date ERA of 3.50 or lower and facing a host with a starter that has won fewer than 30% of his starts on the season has earned a 29-5 record good for 85% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the last three seasons, this betting query has gone undefeated with an 8-0 record.  

Milwaukee vs Atlanta
Saturday, 7/3/2021 8:30 PM

Game-6

I stated on a few shows that with both teams’ best player ruled out for Game-5, the Bucks had  the far easier adjustment for their game plan. The reason is obvious in my opinion. The Bucks top-2 players in possession percentage (time that a player is dribbling the ball/holding the ball) are Holiday and Middleton accounting for an average 11.8 minutes-per-game. Yannis is 4th most on the Bucks. The Hawks Trey Young handles the ball nearly 9-minutes-per-gamem which is double the amount of any other player on the roster. That allowed the Bucks to get out to their fast start and won Game-5 never trailing.

I expect both teams to come out playing fast in Game-6 and let’s not forget that the Bucks were the fastest paced-team during the regular season. The predictive models reflect a high probability that both of these teams will score at least 111 points. The Bucks are 11-2-1 OVER in games lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick, this season, and in which they scored a minimum of 111 points. If the game was played on the road the OVER was 7-1 for 88% winning bets. Under the same conditions, the Hawks are 20-2-2 OVER and 11-0-2 OVER in home games this season.

An alternative betting strategy is to bet the OVER with 50% of your normal betting amount, and then add 25% more at 209.5 and 25% more at 204.5 points. The worst case is that the market never drops to either of those price levels, but that almost ensures the 50% OVER bet will be a winner. A -120 vig will appear often, but if you are patient you will get a -115 or lower price. Do not pay -120 vig is my advice for in-game live betting.

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

LA Clippers (56 - 33) At Phoenix (62 - 24)

Monday, 6/28/2021 9:00 PM

Western Conference - Conference Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 5

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points

Betting on home favorites of 3 to 9 points and are coming off a game in which they held the opponent to 35% or worse shooting in games played over the last five seasons has earned a 31-6 SU record and 29-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. The UNDER is a solid 23-14 record for 62.2% wins. 

The predictive models and machine learning applications predict that Phoenix will score at least 112 points and make at least 85% of their free throws. In past home games, in which the Suns met or exceeded this pair of measures has produced a 22-11 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Phoenix vs LA Clippers

Game – 4 of the Western Conference Finals

Saturday, 6/26/2021 9:00 PM EST

5- UNIT Best Bet on the Clippers using the money line.

Bet on home teams that are facing a foe that has covered 8 or more of their last 10 games and is playing only their 4th game in the past 10 games has earned a 26-14 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and a remarkable 10-3 ATS for 77% in the playoffs. 

Phoenix is 4-16 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points to a divisional rival in games played over the last 3 seasons. 

From the predictive side of things, the Clippers are 50-11 ATS for 82% winning bets in home games when scoring 112 or more points and having a better 3-point shooting percentage than their opponent.  

Atlanta vs Milwaukee

8:30 PM EST, 6-25-21

NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks

Atlanta does not fare well against teams, like Milwaukee, who defend the perimeter to contest shots, and not look to clog the passing lanes looking for steals. The Hawks are just 8-21 ATS in road games when facing a team that averages 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. 

Betting on favorites that are revenging a previous loss installed as a favorite of 7 or more points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off two or more upset wins has earned an outstanding 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the last 20 NBA seasons. When this situation has occurred in the playoffs, the record has been 20-6 SU, 17-9 for 65% ATS, and the UNDER 18-8. 

Bet the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points.

Oakland vs Texas

Wednesday, 6/23/2021 8:05 PM

James Kaprielian (R) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (R)

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Texas Rangers using the money line.

Betting on home underdogs between +125 and +175 using the money line that are batting 0.250 or lower over their last 20 games, and coming off a dismal performance with their bullpen getting hammered for 8 or more runs has earned a highly profitable 25-11 record good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. The $100 bettor has made $2,450 by wagering an average +145 underdog bet. 

For his career, Foltynewicz is 10-1 in home games in the month of June, so expect a much better performance from him tonight in Arlington, TX.

Washington vs Philadelphia

1:05 ET, June 23, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

Betting the OVER in game with a total between 8.5 and 10-runs, the home team has a paltry 0.300 or lower slugging percentage on the season and is starting average starting pitcher sporting a WHIP between 1.35 and 1.49 for the season and is now facing a team putting out a solid starting pitcher sporting a WHIP of 1.25 or less on the season has earned a 46-15 record for 76% winning bets over the last 25 seasons.

Washington starts Erick Fedde, who has been incredibly good and has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts spanning the past 19 innings of work. However, my predictive models indicate that the scoreless innings streak is going to come to an abrupt end this afternoon. The Phillies have Velasquez on the hill, who has been largely inconsistent and in three days starts has been shelled to the tune of an 8.25 ERA and 1.667 WHIP spanning just 12 innings of work. In nine grass starts he has allowed 10 home runs.

From the predictive side of things, we learn that the Phillies in home games that saw both starting pitchers combine for fewer than 10 innings pitched, the OVER gets the money with 38-15-1 record and 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. Moreover, 12-5 OVER if the game starts before 6:00 ET.