Clemson vs Duke
Monday, September 4, 2023
8-Unit best bet on the Duke Blue Devils plus the points, currently priced at 13 points.

Duke second-year head coach Mike Elko has 18 returning starters with 10 on offense including last year’s quarterback, Riley Leonard. After a three-win 2021 season that include losses in their last eight games, former head coach David Cutcliffe was dismissed. Elko turned things around immediately winning 8 regular season games and then won 30-13 in the Military Bowl over UCF.

This will be the first time since 2018 that these two ACC members have met. Since 1980, Duke is 5-25 SU and 14-16 ATS with all but three games taking place prior to the 2008 season. So, not much history between these programs, but given a chance to showcase their program, you can be sure that Duke and its’ fans will be fully prepared and ramped up to pull off an upset.

With a total of 55.5 points and Clemson favored by 13 points implies a 34.25-21.25 Clemson win. However, my predictive models show a high probability that Duke will score 27 or more points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. There are several projections that result in Duke’s offense gaining more YPP than Clemson. In past games in which Duke scored 27 or more points and averaged 6 or more YPP they went on to a highly profitable 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If they score 27+ points and gain more YPP than their foe, the record goes to 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets.

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs

8-Unit best bet on the Cubs using the money line

I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for the Giants to score first or retake the lead during the first 3 innings of action and then bet 1-unit on the Cubs using the money line.

After winning Game of their four-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres, the Giants lost the next three games scoring just 4 runs and getting shutout yesterday. The Cubs have won 8 of 12 games and are coming off a four-game split to their division-rival Cincinnati Reds.

The Phillies enjoy a 5.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, while the Cubs are currently in the second slot. Then there is a big-time log jam with the Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Reds in a dead heat for the third and final wild card berth. The key info to know is that the Giants own most of the tie-breakers and the Diamondbacks do not.

Betting on teams that have won 51 to 55% of their games that are facing a foe that is on a 3-game losing streak having lost each of those games to a divisional foe has gone 11-2 for 85% averaging a -141 wager and earning a 45% ROI since 2019. If our team is the home favorite, then our team has gone a near-perfect 8-1 averaging a -127 wager and earning a 65% ROI.

Florida State vs LSU
8-Unit best bet on the Seminoles plus the points.

I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for LSU to score first or retake the lead during the first half of action and then bet 1-unit on the Seminoles using the money line.

FSU head coach Mike Norvell returns 17 starters with nine on defense. The Seminoles started 22 freshman at some point in games played last season and that experience is a monumental advantage and provides superior depth at the skill positions in this matchup.

Last year, the Seminoles played 22 freshmen ranking third most in college football and ranked third nationally scoring an average 10.4 PPG in the first quarter of action. Jordan Travis, a senior transfer from Louisville, returns under center after having a great 2022 campaign completing 64% of his 226 passes for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an outstanding 160.1 quarterback rating (QBR). What I am most impressed this coming into the season are the stable of Seminole running backs starting with red shirt junior transfer Trey Benson, red shirt freshman Rodney Hill, red shirt junior, Lawrence Toafili, red shirt junior transfer Caziah Holmes, and red shirt sophomore CJ Campbell, JR.

After transferring from Oregon, Benson ran for 990 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards-per-rush (YPR) including nine touchdowns (TD). He accounted for 1,156 yards from scrimmage and 120 TD. I believe Hill is going to have a breakout season and is listed as the second RB on the Seminole depth chart. He has elite quickness, speed, and elusiveness that may give the Seminoles two 1,000 yard ground gainers this season. The most significant addition to the Seminole offense is the junior transfer Keon Coleman from Michigan State, who has NFL size at 6-4 and 215 pounds and can be consistently covered in man coverage schemes. For MSU last season, he caught a team high 58 balls for a team-high 798 receiving yards, averaging 13 yards-per-catch (YPC) including team-high eight receiving TD.

From the predictive models, we are looking for FSU to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which FSU met or exceeded these measures has produced a 18-0 record and 14-4 ATS record good for 78% winning bets. In games in which LSU allowed 28+ points and had the same or more turnovers has led to a 4-9 record and a 3-10 ATS record for 23% winners in games played over the past five seasons.

Thursday – Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers

10-Unit best bet on the Dodgers using the money line

I recommend betting this game with 8-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add the remaining two-unit amount if the Braves to score first, which they are quite good at doing this season, or retake the lead at some point over the first three innings of action.

The Braves own the major leagues' best record at 87-45 averaging a -181 wager and earning a 7% ROI, with the Dodgers second best at 83-49 averaging a -162 wager and earning a 6% ROI and closing fast with 24 victories in 28 games this month. The August success has given Los Angeles its third most wins in a single month in franchise history. With another victory on Thursday, the Dodgers would tie their single-month high accomplished in June 1947 and August 1953. This is certainly a potential preview of the NLCS, but the Philadelphia Phillies are playing spectacular baseball in their own right.

Betting on any team that is averaging 5.0 or more RPG and has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games and facing a NL foe with a strong starter with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 158-109 record good for 59% and earning a respectable 9% ROI. If the game takes place after the all start break the record improves to 62-30 for 67% winning bets and earns a 24% ROI. If our team is the dog, the record is 12-12, but averaging a +140 wager produces an exceptional 26% ROI and if they are a home dog, a perfect 3-0.

Betting on home dogs using the +1.5-run line that are facing a foe that is batting 0.290 or better over their previous 20 games has earned a 103-57 mark good for 64% winning bets over the past seven seasons. If our dog is priced at no higher than 150 on the money line, the run line record has gone 75-32 for 70% winning bets earning a highly profitable 27% ROI over the past seven seasons. I mention this as an alternative in-game bet to take the +1.5 run line if the Braves score first.

In only one other occasion this season has the Dodgers been priced as a home dog. Home dogs that are in a matchup where both they and their foe have won at least 60% of their games on the season and the game occurring after the all-star break has earned a 13-11 record for 54%, Averaging a 121 wager and earning a 19% ROI.

Thursday – Nebraska vs Minnesota
8-Unit Best Bet on Nebraska +7.5 points.

·      Betting on road underdogs facing a conference foe using the MONEY LINE

·      Our dog is priced at 10 or fewer points

·      Game occurs in the first three weeks of the season

·      Our dog is coming off a season in which they allowed 400 or YPG

·      26-26 (50%) | 315 ML wager | 310% ROI past 20 seasons

Subset: If our road warrior lost by 3 to 9 points in the previous meeting

9-12 (43%) | 12-5 ATS (71%) last 20 seasons

At this point, it appears the Cornhuskers will have their third different starting QB in as many seasons. Former Georgia tech QB, Jeff Sims transferred to Nebraska in December and had a solid Spring football season. He will have a much-improved offensive line in front of him led by ASU transfer and Center Ben Scott.  The offensive scheme will be the spread option under head coach Matt Rhule. Nebraska will run the ball from many different pre and post-snap alignments and create opportunities for short pass routes, which in turn will set up the play action pass play in man coverage situations. This ball-controlled scheme will give the defense time to rest between sets of downs, which is something that unit has not benefitted from in many seasons.

Sims will have a solid set of WR to throw the ball two starting with a duo of Senior-transfers. The ‘X’ wideout is Marcus Washington, who transferred from the Texas Longhorns after the 2021 season. For Nebraska last season he played in 12 games and caught 31 balls for 471 receiving yards, but only one TD. Billy Kemp has transferred from Virginia and is in position to excel in this ball-controlled offensive scheme. He will be in the slot and is quick enough at 5-9 and 170 lbs. to create separation from defenders as he did in the ACC. He had 137 receptions in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The third WR is Zavier Betts, who is a red-shirt sophomore, who had 20 receptions in 12 games for 417 receiving yards.  Behind them is a core of WR featuring seven new freshman all with the potential to make sizable contributions.

The Gophers return just eight starters with four on offense and defense each this season. They are in a rebuilding type of season. Their defense ranked 41st nationally allowing 23.2 PPG and they lost a lot of talent from that unit that is not replaceable in the early weeks of a season for a program not named Georgia. So, I do strongly believe Nebraska will eb able to move the ball effectively and chew up the game clock and earn a sizable time-of-possession advantage leading to a potential outright win.

A Situational Betting System
The following betting system has earned a solid 296-204-1 ATS record good for 59.2% ATS winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on conference road teams with a total of 50 or fewer points and is priced as a dog between 7 and 13.5 points. What is truly great about this system is that it has not had a losing record season since 2004 and that is 20 season folks. If our road dog has lost the four consecutive games to the current opponent, the record soars to an amazing 32-11 ATS record good for 74.4% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.
     This is one of my more than 5000 betting systems and algorithms that I have developed and tested over my 28-year career. I have put together an optimized packed of 103 betting systems, which the aforementioned is one of them, and is akin to a well-managed optimized 401-K plan. By diversifying the risk of a single bet and spreading it out over the course of many diverse betting situations that teams and respective matchups find themselves has produced exceptionally profitable results. 

Head coach Rhule is a solid 43-18-1 ATS when facing a conference foe and is 28-12 ATS when on the road for his career.

Thursday – Florida Gators vs Utah Utes
8-Unit Best Bet on Florida +4.5 points

The ranked Utah Utes will take on the SEC-member Florida Gators in Week 1 action set to kickoff at 8:00 PM EST, Thursday evening.

Ranked teams of between a 7.5-point dog and 7.5-point favorite are 44-41 SU (52%) and 35-47-3 ATS (43%) in Week 1 action. If they won 10 or more games in the previous season, they have underperformed with a 26-22 SU record (54%0 and 19-27-2 ATS mark for just (41%), and the OVER has gone 28-18-2 for a solid 61% winning bets.

Let’s drill a bit deeper into the omnipotent database. In week 1 action ranked teams priced between a 7.5 dog and favorite and facing an unranked foe fall flat producing a 15-12 SU record and 7-19-1 ATS mark good for 27% winning bets. This implies that fading these falsely ranked teams, hits 73% winning bets. Not the situation for our matchup here but note for future reference that these Week 1 teams when priced as a dog have gone a terrible 0-4 ATS. If our road disrespected dog won fewer games in the previous season than the ranked foe, these dogs have earned an 11-15 record and a solid 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 17 seasons and since Covid in 2020, this situational betting angle is a perfect 6-0 ATS.

Gator head coach Napier is 5-1 ATS pried as a dog and was 10-3 as a dog while at the helm of Louisiana Lafayette; 15-4 ATS for his career. Utes head coach Whittingham is just 21-35 ATS for 38% when priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point favorite. If those games occurred during the first four weeks, Whittingham is just 4-9 ATS for 31%.

From the predictive models, we are looking for Florida to score 24 or more points and have a 5 or more-minute advantage in time-of-possession. In past games in which Florida has met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to a 45-2 SU record and 35-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and if the game is on the road and they are priced as the dog, 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS. When Utah has allowed these performance measures, they have gone 4-16 SU and 3-16-1 ATS for 16%.

Thursday – North Carolina State vs Connecticut
8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total of 46.5 points

Betting the Under with two teams who lost their last two games of the previous season and with a game total between 45 and 49 points has produced a 32-20 Under record good for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the home team is priced as the underdog the Under soars to a highly profitable 13-3 for 81% winning bets.

Thursday – Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins
10-Unit best bet on the Texas Rangers

Betting on teams priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that are facing an excellent starter that has posted an ERA of 0.00 over his previous three starts has earned a 22-6 record averaging a +111 wager and earning an outstanding 49% ROI since 2016. Yes, that is a great contrarian betting system and we are getting the Rangers cheap given their recent six game losing streak too.

The Twins bullpen has been a bit unstable recently compiling a 5.87 ERA and a 1.696 WHIP over their previous seven games. Pablo Lopez will have the ball to start the game and has produced amazing numbers with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP, 3-0 record including 22 strikeouts and just three free passes spanning 19 innings of work. He has worked 6 or more innings in each of his last five starts and has not allowed more than 2 ER in six straight starts. His recent excellence somehow works against him and other starters, who have managed to allow zero earned runs over a 3-start span.

Once again, the Twins bullpen imploded Wednesday in an extra-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Twins starter Maeda went 5 innings allowing 3 ER, 2 BB, and 6 Ks. The Twins used four relievers, who allowed a combined 4 ER over 5 innings including two walks and 3 Ks and one home run.

The Rangers will start Andrew Heaney, who is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.781 WHIP over his last three starts. He has recorded 122 strikeouts over 118 innings on the season. He is a traditional three-pitch starter featuring a 4-Seam fastball that is used 58%, an excellent slider, used 24%, and a change used 18% and mostly to left-handed hitters. Despite averaging 92.5 MPH with his fastball, the differential in speed to his slider is an optimal 12 MPH making it difficult for any batter, especially RH ones, to identify the pitch. He averages an excellent 27% whiff percentage on all pitches thrown and the Twins have 7 batters that have chase rates of more than 30%.

Pablo Lopez has above average spin rates, but not as elite as Heaney, who averages an amazing 2500 RPM with his slider. Lopez has excellent late-breaking sinking action with his fastball. However, the Rangers have 6 batters in the lineup that are averaging 90 MPH exit velocities and understand how to lay off a fastball that is heavy and has late movement that ride up the handle of RH batters.

Good luck to us and remember this is a marathon called sports betting. Across all sports and early four years of action, these 10-UNIT best bets have done remarkably well with a 55-26 mark for 68% winners or looked inversely, produces 32% losers. It’s the composite of my best bets that has produced the exceptional profits over my 28-year career and not a single best bet opportunity.

Monday – Seattle Mariners vs CWS
8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Mariners using the run line.

Start Time is 8:10 PM EST.

Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the -1.5-run line and then look for the CWS to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action to add the 1-unit on the money line.

Betting on favorites of -150 or greater on the money line with the run line that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season and is facing a struggling foe that is scoring just 4.25 or fewer RPG has produced a 23-13 ML record and a 20-16 Run Line record averaging a +105 RL wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2016.

The Mariners have caught fire since putting all-star Julio Rodriguez in the leadoff spot of the batting order having won five consecutive games and have won 15 of their last 18 games to close to within three games of Al Division-leading Texas Rangers and with 2.5 games of the reigning world champion Houston Astros. The Mariners hold the third wild card berth by just a ½-game over the Toronto Blue Jays and by three games over the surging Boston Red Sox.

The CWS are playing out the remainder of the season and have lost 12 of their last 17 games and allowed 30 runs to the Colorado Rockies in their three set over the weekend. Starting tonight for the CWS is Touki Toussaint, who is just 1-5 in eight starts with a 5.26 ERA and 1.519 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0-2 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.954WHIP.

Boston vs Houston

Boston vs Houston

8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line

Bet 7-unit son the money line and then look to add a 1-unit amount on the +1.5 run line if the Astros score first or take the lead at any point during the first three innings.

James Paxton will be on the hill for the Sox and the left-hander has gone 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.270 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Astros. He is 7-3 in 16 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP including 93 strikeouts and 23 walks over 86 1/3 innings of work. He is 6-2 in night starts with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP with 78 strikeouts and 17 walks over 68 1/3 innings of work.

Betting on any winning record team that is facing a foe coming off a three straight losses to a divisional foe priced as favorites and has won 54 to 60% of their games has gone 43-29 for 60% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 15 seasons. If our team is a road dog of any size, they have gone 21-7 for 75% winners averaging a +135 wager and earning a 57% ROI over the past 15 seasons.

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

8-Unit NFLX best bet on the Commanders +1 or the money line.

Betting on any team priced between the 3’s that is coming off a win by six or fewer points has earned a 65-32-2 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Fully aware that Baltimore is on a once-in a lifetime 24-0 SU run in the preseason, but this is the first time my predictive models have had targeted a foe to bet on when facing the Ravens. The Commanders have the motivation to win a second preseason game looking to generate much-needed fan support after so many dismal and pathetic seasons under the previous regime. So, let’s go with the Commanders and look for the SU win in this one.

Miami Marlins vs LA Dodgers

8-Unit best bet on the UNDER currently priced at 8.5 runs

Consider betting the Under or 7-Units preflop and then look for a score in the first inning to add the remaining unit.  If no score occurs in the first inning then look for 9.5 runs to bet the Under during the first three innings of play.  

Betting the UNDER with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team, Dodgers, averaging four or more walks-per-game and who have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned a 127-71-5 Under record good for 64% winning bets since 2019. If the game occurs after the all-star break the Under has gone 19-9-1 for 68% winning bets since 2019.

The Dodgers put their 11-game win stream on the line when they face reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Sandy Alcantara. The Dodgers will have Tony Gonsolin on the hill and has gone 8-4 in 19 starts with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP on the season. This season, Alcantara has not put up Cy Young worth numbers. He is just 5-10 in 24 starts with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.181 WHIP including 135 strikeouts spanning 158 1/3 innings of work. However, over the past three starts he has put up impressive numbers with a 1.96 ERA and a 0.783 WHIP including 22 strikeouts, just three walks, over 23 innings of work. He is coming off a complete game 3-1 win over the NY Yankees allowing 1 ER on five hits with two walks and a season-high 10 strikeouts.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

8-UNIT BEST BET UNDER the posted total currently at 8.5 runs

Betting the Under with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team that is averaging 4 or more walks-per-game (Padres) and allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned an outstanding 127-71-5 record for 64% winning bets and a 25% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the Under has gone 19-9-1 for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons.

We had an UNDER bet win for us last night in this matchup and going with it again is a solid betting opportunity. Brandon Pfaadt is the #1 pitching prospect for the Diamondbacks and he has been roughed up at the MLB level. However, in five starts since Pfaadt returned from Triple-A Reno, Arizona's fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft has a 4.34 ERA, a 1.207 WHIP and a .261 opponents' batting average. When he was sent out after a disastrous two-plus-inning outing on June 29 against the Tampa Bay Rays, Pfaadt had a 9.82 ERA, a 1.870 WHIP and a .346 opponents' batting average. A change in his positioning on the pitching rubber has greatly improved his attack angles and locating pitches in the best locations in the strike zone more consistently.

On Sunday, when he was matched against Lugo in Phoenix, Pfaadt gave up three runs on nine hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Lugo (4-6, 4.16 ERA) held the Diamondbacks to two runs on six hits and no walks with four strikeouts over five innings.

Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Angels
8-Unit Best Bet on the Angels using the money line, currently priced as -110 favorites using the money line.

Betting on home favorites up to -125 using the money line that have lost five straight games to the current foe has produced a 31-19 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 20 seasons. The Angels have lost five straight games to the Rays with the last win taking place May 10 of the 2022 season. That win was 12-0.

The Rays will start Erasmo Ramirez, who is making his second start and will be kept on a short leash. He went three innings in his first start. The Rays bullpen is a mess currently and have posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.588 WHIP over their past seven games. So, this is an excellent situation for the Angels to bounce back with significant offensive output.

Friday – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
8-Unit best bet on the Mariners using the money line.

Start Time is 8:10 PM EST.

Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the money line and then look for the Astros to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action.

Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 4.5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 50-54 record for 48% winning bets, but by averaging a 147-underdog wager has earned a solid 18% ROI over the past five seasons. If ther game occurs after the all-star break, these road dogs have gone 19-17 for 53% an has earned a 30.4% ROI over the past five seasons.

Julio Rodriguez is hotter than the surface of the sun and he has led the Mariners, 5-2 with a plus-16 run differential against Houston this season, with their torrid play with a 6-4 road victory over the Kansas City Royals on Thursday. Seattle has won six consecutive road series and seven of eight series overall and closed to within 3 1/2 games of the Astros in pursuit of one of two American League wild-card bids.

The Mariners center fielder Rodriguez was moved into the leadoff spot and during that seven-game span, Rodriguez is batting .417 with 16 RBIs, including a 5-for-5 effort in the series finale with the Royals that included five RBIs and a go-ahead, three-run home run in the eighth inning. Rodriguez went 12-for-21 with 11 RBIs in the four-game series.

Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream
8-Unit best bet on the Sky, who are priced as 2.5-point underdogs.

Betting on road teams that are averaging 76 or more PPG and facing a foe that is also scoring 76 or more PPG and is coming off a humiliating loss of 15 or more points has earned a 48-31-5 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past five seasons. Both teams are coming off games and have had 4 days of rest to prepare. In this situation, the query improves to 31-14-1 ASTS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Cincinnati vs Atlanta
8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, currently priced a 6-point favorites.

Betting on favorites that gained 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt and taking on a foe that allowed 73% pass completion in their previous game has earned a 24-8-2 ATS record for 75% winning bets in the NFL preseason.

From the predictive models, the Falcons are 18-3-1 ATS when they have scored 21 to 28 points in a preseason game. The Bengals are an anemic 4-16 ATS for just 20% when they have gained between 250 and 299 total yards in a preseason game.

Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun
8-Unit best bet on the Wings, who are priced as 3.5-point underdogs. A sprinkle on the money line is a solid addition if the Wings get down by 10 or more points during the first half of action.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that has a scoring differential between -3 and +3 PPG and facing a foe that are outscoring their foes by three to seven PPG and are coming off a game scoring 80 or more points has earned a n 18-10 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2011.

NY Liberty vs Las Vegas 
10-Unit best bet on the UNDER, currently at 177 points and is likely to trend higher throughout the afternoon.

So, consider betting 7-units preflop before the game start at the best price you can find, then look to add 1.5 units at 182.5 points and 187.5 points during the first half of action only.

Betting the Under in a game with a total of at least 140 points and with the road team coming off two consecutive ats wins priced as the favorite and with their foe coming off a home win has produced a 37-21 Under record good for 64% winning bets since 2011. If the total is priced at 160 or more points, this system has produced a 23-9 UNDER record good for 72% winning bets since 2011.

Betting the UNDER in a game with a total of 140 or more points and the home team has covered three of their last four games ATS  and is a team that has won 75% or more of their games and is taking on a winning record foe after the 15th game of the regular season has been played has earned an outstanding 33-14 record for 70% winning bets since 2011. If the total is 150 or more points, the Under has gone 30-13 for 70% winning bets since 2011. 

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Liberty to score 80 or fewer points and shoot 37.5% or lower from beyond the arc. In past games road games priced as the dog and matching or exceeding these performance measures, they have seen the Under go 71-30-2 for 70% winning bets. The Under has gone 34-12-1 Under for 74% winning bets when the Aces have been home favorites and have allowed 80 or fewer points and held the foe to 37.5% shooting or lower since 2019. 

Thursday: Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm

8-Unit best bet on the Dream plus the points.

Betting on teams that are facing a losing record team that are coming off a double-digit home loss and is non-conference foe have earned a solid 49-17 SU (74%) record and 43-21-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. If our team is on the road, they have then gone 23-10 SUATS for 70% winners. Plus, if more than 15 or more games of the regular season have been completed the record improves to 16-7 (70%) and 17-6 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Elks (Thursday)

8-UNIT BEST BET on the Elks plus the double-digit amount of points

I recommend placing 85% of your normal bet size on the Elks pre flop (before the game starts) and is currently offered at 12 points and then add the remaining 15% if the Blue Bombers score first during the first half of action.

Betting on winless teams that are coming off a horrid game scoring nine or fewer points have gone 6-9 SU and 10-5 ATS for 67% covering the spread by an average of 6.7 PPG.

Thursday – Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the -1.5-run line currently with -125 juice. Start Time is 7:10 PM EST.

Consider splitting this 8-Unit amount into two parts consisting of a 6-Unit amount using the -1.5-run line and then add a 2-Unit amount on the -1.5-run line if the Red Sox fall behind at any point during the first three innings of action.

Betting on home teams using the -1.5-run line that has an on-base-percentage of 0.260or lower spanning their last three games and with their bullpen struggling to an ERA of 7.00 or worse over their last 10 games has produced an outstanding 50-26-1 record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Thursday: Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever

8-Unit best bet on the Lynx minus the points 

Betting on road favorites in matchup of faster than average pace with both teams coming into the game averaging 62 or more shots per game, after game number 20 has been played and with our road favorite coming off a game in which they made 50% or more of their shot attempts has produced a 67-27-2 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 2011. This algorithm betting system has never had a losing record season.

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
August 10, 2023 | 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the three points and this bet is valid if the Patriots remain an underdog of not greater than 6.5 points

Betting on NFLX dogs between one and 6.5 points that are form the AFC Conference and facing a team from the AFC South have earned an outstanding 38-17-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2004 or 20 years. It has not lost, though, since 2016, going a remarkable 16-0 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 9.81 points-per-game.

Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces
10-Unit best bet on Atlanta Dream plus the double-digit of points over the Aces.

Betting on a road team that played Over the total by 18 or more points in each of their two previous games in games played from May 1 to the end of the regular season has earned a 17-17 record, 22-11-1 ATS for 67% winning bets, and a solid 21-13 Over-Under record for 62%. If our road dog is priced at 6 or more points, they have gone just 3-9 SU, but 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets and 8-4 Over for 67%. I four road dog is priced at any size dog and the total is at least 165 points, their record has gone 3-5 SU and 6-2 ATS and 7-1 Over-Under for 88% cashed tickets. Last, if our road dog played Over the total by 20 or more points in each of their last two games, they have produced a 3-8 SU record and 8-2-1 ATS mark good for 80% cashed tickets.

Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians.

The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game.


Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011. 


Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line.

Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians.

The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game.


Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011.


Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line.

Kansas City vs NY Mets

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets
(This play has been upgraded to an 8-Unit from the 5-Unit play released yesterday)

8-UNIT BEST BET on the Kansas City Royals using the money line.I recommend placing 85% of your normal bet size on the Royals pre flop (before the game starts) and then add the remaining 15% at any point over the first three innings that the Royals are trailing. This means adding at that moment, not when the ½ inning concludes, that the Mets take the lead in the first three innings.

Betting on teams that are coming off a three-game sweep against a divisional foe and now playing in an inter-league game have gone a quite impressive 46-11 averaging a +105 wager and earning a 52% ROI over the last five seasons. 
Betting on all underdogs of +140 or more that is starting a pitcher in poor form sporting an ERA of 7 or higher over his last five starts and taking on a foe that is allowing an average of just 4.5 or more RPG has earned a solid 45-35 record averaging a +171 wager and earning a 35% ROI over the last five seasons.

The veteran and seemingly ageless Zack Greinke will be on the hill for the Royals tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Cubs using the money line.

Let’s get right into the numbers. The following betting also has produced a 92-41 record averaging a -161 wager and earning a solid 21% ROI in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements to get a qualified betting opportunity are to bet on home favorites in the month of August that are facing a divisional foe and with that foe starting a pitcher with a solid season-to-date WHIP of 1.25 or lower. 


If our foe has a winning record the system record soars to a remarkable 29-11 averaging a -153 wager and earning a 24% ROI.

Thursday Night
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

10-Unit best bet on the UNDER

Betting the Under in game with a total of 9 or 9.5 runs and with the home team evening a road loss priced as the favorite has earned a solid 67-32-7 record for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game is a matchup of divisional foes, the Under has posted a 28-13-3 record for 68% winning bets and if the game occurs after game numb er 81, the Under has gone 15-5-3 for 75% winning bets.

The Cubs have bounced back and are finally just one-game under 0.400 and revised their playoff hopes. They have scored 6.6 RPG and batted 0.292 over their past seven games and are prone to regression in this game tonight. The Cardinals are playing better too, scoring 5.7 RPG and batting 0.270 over their last seven games and also are prone to regression tonight. Cubs skipper Ross is 22-10 Under when on a four or more-game win streak. Cardinals skipper Marmot is 37-15-1 Under after having played five or more road games. 

8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 8.5 runs

A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System

The following betting system has earned a 38-24-3 Over record good for 61% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet the Over with an AL team that is scoring between 4.3 and 4.6 RPG and is starting a pitcher with solid control sporting a WHIP of 1.200 and facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or lower.

Two of the most disappointing teams square off in the Bronx when the Yankees host the Mets. The Yankees have won three straight games, but are tied for last place in the AL East division standings trailing the Baltimore Orioles by nine games. The Mets are second-to-last in the NL East standings and possess a losing record on the season despite their owner spending $800MM dollars in off-season contracts resulting in a 2023 payroll of $365MM. Justin Verlander is the starter tonight for the Mets and he may be making an audition for those teams looking to acquire a veteran starter with a monster contract too. The Mets are 6 games under .500 and trail the first place Atlanta Braves by a whopping 18.5 games in the NL East race.

How ironic that the last time the Subway Series last arrived in the Bronx on Aug. 22, the New York Mets and New York Yankees were division leaders and a combined 61 games over .500, resulting in buzz about the possibility of the intracity rivals meeting in the World Series. The Yanks are 2.5 games out of a possible wild card berth and with the trading deadline looming, it will be quite interesting to see if they do become buyers in the market and specifically go after Ohtani.

Player Prop Bets
Bet German Over 2.5 earned runs allowed -120
Bet Verlander Over 2.5 earned runs allowed -110

Despite the large number of injuries to the Dodger’s pitching staff, they are taking control of the NL West Division race. They are 17 games over .500 with a 57-40 record and have stretched their division-leading lead to four games over the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers have won 69% of their games played in July ranking third-best behind the surging Boston Red Sox (73%) and Milwaukee Brewers (71%). Even more impressive is that the Dodgers have won road series against the first-place Baltimore Orioles and now the first-place Texas Rangers that concludes a 9-game road trip today.

The Dodgers starting rotation includes names no one expected to see lumped together this season. Bobby Miller started Saturday’s 16-3 blowout win over the Rangers and completed six innings allowing three earned runs for a quality start. In 10 starts, Miller is 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA allowing 49 hits, 16 walks, and striking out 53 batters spanning 54 2/3 innings of work.

Sunday’s starter is scheduled to be Emmet Sheehan, who is 3-0 in five starts with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP including 11 walks and 18 strikeouts spanning 25 2/3 innings of work. He has a 95 MPH fastball, 87 MPH slider, and a 82 MPH changeup used against left-handed batters. He throws the fastball 65% of all pitches and you can expect the Rangers lineup to be looking at attacking that first pitch offering.

Sheehan may get into trouble early, but the Dodgers bullpen has been expectational posting a 1.03 ERA and a 0.949 WHIP spanning 26 1/3 innings of work over their last seven games. Their best relievers are all available today having needed none of them in yesterday’s blowout win.

The Rangers will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill to make his 19th start of the season. He has posted a mediocre 4.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP with 36 walks and 62 strikeouts spanning 96 2/3 innings of work. However, he has struggled in his three most recent starts posting an 8.03 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP including eight walks and just six strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings of work. He will be making his ninth day start of the season and has posted a terrible 7.54 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP with 15 walks and 19 strikeouts over 37 innings of work.

The Rangers and Dodgers rank first and second respective in scoring offense at 5.78 RPG and 5.71 RPG on the season. Both starters may not even make it into the fifth inning and for that reason I like the Dodgers will the monumentally better bullpen in this matchup.

A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System

The following situational betting system has earned a 43-30 record for 59% winning bets that have averaged a +118 wager for a 24% ROI in bets made over the past five seasons. The requirements are to be on NL road teams that are averaging at least 4.5 RPG on the season and facing a foe from the AL that is scoring at least 5.4 RPG. Drilling down a bit further, if the game is the last game of the series, the road teams have gone 16-10 for 62% winning tickets averaging a +114 wager and earning highly profitable 28% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.

Player Prop Bets

Bet Under Martin Perez 1.5 outs records -115 at BetMGM

Bet Martin Perez Over 2.5 walks allowed +127 at Caesars

Bet Max Muncy to hit a home run +310 at PointsBet

Bet Chris Taylor Over 0.5 RBI +195 at BetMGM

10-UNIT Best Bet on the San Diego Padres using the money line when take on the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday.

Let’s get right to the powerful and highly profitable analytics that support this 10-Unit play produced by the predictive models. Betting on a NL team in an inter-league matchup that has a starter on the hill has made six consecutive quality starts and is priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog has earned a solid 30-23 record (57%) averaging a -103 wager and earning a 14% ROI over the past 18 seasons. If our NL team is on a tow or more-game losing streak (padres are on a current 3-game losing streak) the record soars to 9-3 for 75% averaging a +104 dog and earning a 54% ROI. If our team is on the road no matter what the pricing is in the market, our teams has gone an amazing 11-1 averaging a +115 wager and earning a highly profitable 92% ROI.

Betting on any team that is starting a pitcher in excellent form posting a WHIP of lower than 1.000 spanning his last five starts and taking on a foe that has batted 0.350 or better over their last three games has earned a 21-11 record (66%) averaging a -120 wager and earning a solid 17% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game is played after the all-star break the record improves to a quite impressive 9-2 (82%) averaging a -125 wager and earning a 44% ROI over the past five seasons.

Joe Musgrove has been one of the best starters in baseball especially over the past several weeks. Since May 26, Musgrove has gone 7-0 in nine starts, allowing just 11 earned runs, two home runs, 8 walks, and 54 strikeouts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1.42 ERA and a 0.789 WHIP including two walks and 24 strikeouts spanning 19 innings of work. His spin rates for all his pitches are at elite levels, which makes it nearly impossible for any hitter to identify the pitch thrown. He ranks second among starters that have had a minimum of 200 batted ball events with a 30.5% hard-hit percentage, 4th with a 10.9% swing percentage, third allowing just 68 batters to hit the ball with an exit velocity of 95 or more-MPH, and second posting a 90% fly ball to line drive ratio.

The Blue Jays will have Alek Manoah on the hill and he is not in good form by an type of analysis sporting a 7.84 ERA and a 1.839 WHIP spanning just 10 1/3 innings of work. However, he is coming off his first start since June 5 in which he wen t six innings allowing an earned run  on five hits with eight strikeouts. Despite this solid outing, he is not at Musgrove’s elite level of pitching and the Padres bats are expected to get to him early and often. Manoah is 4-9 losing 11 units on the money line in home games when the total has been between 8.5 and 10 runs in starts made over the past two seasons.

Monday – Dodgers vs Orioles Under 9.5 runs.

Betting the Under in a game with a total of 8.5 or fewer runs and with a one of the teams (Dodgers) averaging four or more walks per game and following two straight games in which they allowed three or fewer in each game has earned a 119-66-5 record for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. Moreover, it has produced profits in nine of the past 10 seasons.

Orioles are 41-25 Under when facing a NL foe that si scoring at least 4.5 RPG in games played in the second half of the season over the past 25 seasons.

The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding posting a 1.61 ERA and a 0.965 WHIP over their past seven games. The Orioles have been quite goods too, sporting a 2.25 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP over their last seven games

Hamilton vs Edmonton (CFL)

8-Unit best bet on Edmonton plus the 1.5 points or the money line when they take on Hasmilton tonight in CFL action.
Betting on underdogs that are coming off a loss of seven or fewer points to a divisional rival and is now facing a foe that is coming off an upset win has earned an outstanding 38-15-1 ATS for 72% winners over the past 10 seasons.
A second system has gone 12-12 SU on the money line and 16-8-1 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Bet on underdogs in July that are facing a foe coming off a win over a divisional foe.
From the predictive models, we are expecting Edmonton to score at least 21 points and have fewer turnovers than the Tiger Cats. In past home games when they have achieved this has sent to a highly profitable 37-3 SU record for 93% wins and 31-9 ATS for 78% winning bets.

WNBA: Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky
8-Unit best bet on the Under, currently priced at 169.5 points and is valid down to and including 167.5 points.

Betting the Under in a game with a total of at least 140 points and with the home team revenging two consecutive double-digit losses to the current opponent and has won between 140 and 49% of their games in the current season has earned an outstanding 29-13-2 Under for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total is 167.5 or more points, the Under record soars to 7-2 for 78% winning bets.

Montreal vs British Columbia

8-Unit best bet OVER the posted total.

From the predictive models, we are expecting Montreal to score at least 28 points. In past road games when they have, has seen the Over go 39-8 for 83% winning bets. When the BC Lions have allowed 28 or more points in a home game has seen the Over produce a 38-12 record from 76% winning bets.

Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx
8-Unit best bet on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points
Betting on road favorites that are shooting at least 44% from the field for the season and facing a team that has shot 43% or better in each of their last three games has earned a solid 43-28-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets. If the road team is favored by 6.5 or more points, the record soars to 14-5 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

8-UNIT Best Bet OVER the total when the Atlanta Braves take on the Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday.
2-Unit best bet (Optional) Over the Rays team total
The Rays are still the second-best-record team in all of MLB despite losing seven consecutive games. Favorites after game number 81 of the regular season, who are at least 15-games over 500 and enduring a 6 or more-game losing streak have seen the Over go 14-9 for 61% winners since 2008. If they are 20 or more games over 500, the Over has improved to 9-4 fort 69% winning bets.
The Rays have scored just 18 runs during the 7-game losing streak and six of those game in one game. Teams that have won at least 60% of their games, have scored just 18 or fewer runs over their last seven games and are now priced as the favorite in a game with a total of 8.5 or more runs has seen the OVER go 11-5 for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

10-Unit best bet on the Baltimore Orioles using the money line when take on the New York Yankees Thursday with the first pitch set for 7:05 PM EST. Despite playing in the early evening, the weather temps will be just off the highs of the days in the region.
I like playing this 10-Unit best bet using 7.5-units or 75% of your 10-Unit betting amount on the money line preflop and then look to add 25% more using the money line if the Yankees score first during the first three innings only. Also, make that second bet if it presents itself at the end of the inning given that the Yankees are the home team.

The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the hill and he is coming off a dreadful start allowing 9 runs, 7 ER including two home runs in just four innings of work in an 11-4 loss to the last place St. Louis Cardinals. Moreover, Severino is just 10-25 losing 17 units per unit wagered in games where he has been priced between a 125 dog and 125 favorite. None of the stat cast measures have been favorable for Severino this season. He has walked 9.5% of the batters faced while striking out just 18%. Batters have averaged a 90.5 MPH exit velocity on batted balls in play and 46% of them have been measured as hard-hit types. Last, he is getting just 20% whiffs on all his pitches throws.

The Orioles will have Kyle Bradish on the hill and he has excellent control of all pitches and can throw fastball, sinker, slider, and curve balls at any point during an at-bat. In fact, he uses the slider the most at 30% of pitches thrown. His curve has elite spin rates and makes it impossible for any hitter to identify and the result is that 23% of pitches thrown to right-handed batters seen chasing it out of the strike zone.

He is coming off an excellent start against the Minnesota Twins and completed six innings allowing one ER on seven hits with one walks and seven strikeouts on 94 pitches. Despite being a RH starter, he threw 11 curve balls to LH batters and not one batter made contact. His average spin rate was 2675 RPM, which is truly elite at the MLB level.

So, betting on road teams (Orioles) in the second half of the regular season that have won two or fewer of their last 8 games, in a matchup of winning record teams and are favored between -100 and -140 using the money line has earned a highly profitable 11-5 record fort 69% averaging a -111 wager and earning a highly profitable 33% ROI.

The Orioles are 7-3 earning a 35% ROI coming off a game in which they scored in only two innings, but both innings were multiple-run innings. From my predictive models, the Orioles are 8-0 averaging a -140 wager as a road favorite and had two or more multiple run innings.

8-Unit Best bet on the Over in the finale of the inter-league matchup between the Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants. 
Betting the OVER with a AL team that is scoring 4.3 to 4.6 RPG and is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.200 or lower and is facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with a 3.75 or lower ERA has earned a 36-22-3 record for 62% winning bets over the past five seasons.

WNBA: Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever
8-Unit best bet on the Minnesota Lynx minus the points. Betting on teams that are revenging a hoe loss to the current opponent and are also coming off an upset win against a conference foe have earned a 23-8-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons.

The Lynx are in third place in the Western Conference with a 7-9 record while the Fever is in last place in the Eastern Conference with a 5-11 SU record. The Fever are on a four-game losing streak and have failed to cover the spread in the last two games. The Lynx have won four of their last five games and are riding a current three-game SUATS win streak. 

The predictive models expect the Lynx to score at least 80 points, make 43% or more of their shot attempts and get at least 10 offensive boards and in past games when they have met these performance measures in a home game has seen them go 61-4 SU and 50-14-1 ATS for 78% winning bets. 

8-Unit best bet on the OVER in the Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians matchup. We got the win yesterday in extra innings with the Guardians winning a dramatic walk-off win. Bet the Over in a game in which the home team won the previous game in walk-off fashion and now playing the last game of their series and priced as a dog between 135 and 160 has earned a 44-22-5 record for 67% winning bets. 
Despite the loss the Braves continue to hit well and on any given day any of the batters in the starting lineup can step up and hit big shots and run scoring extra-base hits. The Braves have hit more home runs in 23 games then the Guardians have hit in 84 games. The Braves have hit at least one home run in each of their last 20 games, which is the longest streak they have enjoyed since 2006 (23 games) and is second in MLB thi season to the Rays, who started out the season with 22 straight games. 
Over the past two seasons, the Braves have seen the OVER go 26-12-1 in road games after having won five or six of their last seven games spanning the past two seasons.

8-Unit best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies using the money line when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays  
The Phillies are on a league-high 10-game road winning streak and will look to extend that streak with one of the hottest starters in all of MLB on the hill. Taijuan Walker has come into top form. In the six starts made in June, Walker posted a 5-1 record with a 1.50 ERA, allowing six runs, allowing 22 hits and two home runs while striking out 34 batters in 36 innings of work. 
Moreover, the Phillies bullpen has been outstanding posting a 0.00 ERA and 0.571 WHIP over their previous seven games.
The Phillies offense is batting 0.276 and scoring 6.1 RPG over their previous seven games. 
Betting on NL road teams that are scoring 4.5 or more RPG and facing a host from the AL that is scoring 5.4 or more RPG has gone 38-28 for 68% averaging a +117 wager and earning a highly profitable 23% ROI over the past five seasons.

10-Unit best bet OVER the total, currently priced at 9 runs and is valid at any price you are offered when the Boston Red Sox take on the Miami Marlins set to start at 6:40 PM EST, Thursday. I also like a run getting scored in the first inning using a pizza money sized bet. Red Sox are 11-5 that a run is scored in the first inning the past two seasons following a loss and now priced as a favorite of no more than -150.

Let us start with a betting system that has done quite well producing a 47-30-3 for 61% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet the OVER in an inter-league game in which one of the teams (Red Sox) is averaging 4.4 to 4.95 RPG and is starting a pitcher that has posted a WHIP of 1.200 or lower and facing a foe whose starter has posted a 3.70 or lower ERA.
If the total is between 9 and 10.5 runs, the record improves to 14-4-1 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons.
Jesus Lazardo is starting for the Marlins and is 6-5 in 16 starts posting a 3.77 ERA and a 1.191 WHIP including 23 walks and 103 strikeouts spanning 90 2/3 innings of work. This will be his 7th start on turf where he has been a not-so-good 3-3 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.517 WHIP including seven home runs allowed. Seven of his 11 home runs allowed have come when he started on grass this season.
The Red Sox will have Brayan Bello on the hill and has been quite good over his last three starts posting a 1.74 ERA and a 0.919 WHIP. In seven home starts the Over has gone 5-2 this season.
The Sox are 8-3 Over this season in home games following a home game that played Under. The Marlins are 5-2 Over when they have played Under in four or more of their previous games in an inter-league matchup this season. They are also 21-12 Over following two straight road games this season.

From the predictive models, we are expect both teams to have at least one multiple-run inning. In previous home games at Fenway, the Red Sox are 46-17-1 (73%) when they and their foe had at least one MRI in games played over the past two seasons. In road games, the Marlins have seen the OVER produce an exceptional 35-12 for 75% winning bets over the past two seasons.

10-Unit Best Bet on the Cleveland Guardians using the money line as they take on the Kansas City Royals. Betting AGAINST home teams priced between a 125 and 150 underdog who is facing a foe that has batted .270 or better over their previous 20 games and whose bullpen did not allow a run in their previous game have gone 17-2 for 90% winners since 2004. They have averaged a -152 bet and have earned a highly profitable 65% ROI. An extremely rare situation, but one that has done remarkably well for 20 seasons. 

Cleveland ranks in the middle of the pile of 30 MLB teams per my power ratings. Their opponent, though, ranks near dead last or last in many of my performance measures. The Royals rank 29th winning just 28% of their games, 28th scoring 3.78 RPG, 25th averaging 12.71 total bases per game, and 28th with a –122 run differential. What IU truly like about the Guardians is that despite being dead last in home runs averaging 0.65 per game, the rank 7th averaging 1.82 doubles per game. Doubles have become the most important extra-base-hit and not only put a man in an immediate scoring position but optimize multiple run-scoring innings too. The Guardian bats are hitting 0.286 and scoring 5.3 RPG over their last seven games. Royals batters are hitting just 0.230 and scoring 3.7 RPG when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. 
 
The biggest difference between these teams is pitching where the Guardians rank 9th with a 3.84 ERA and the Royals a distant 28th with a lofty and quite awful 5.21 ERA for the season. The Guardians staff ranks 6th allowing just 1.01 home runs per game.  
 
The Royals are just 13-42 when facing a solid bullpen with a WIP of 1.45 or lower in games played this season. They are also 17-42 when playing in a game with a total of between 8.5 and 10 runs.  

8-Unit best bet on the OVER in the Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves matchup starting Tuesday. Betting the OVER with a NL team that is scoring between 4.3 and 4.6 RPG and starting apitcher with a 1.200 or lower WHIP and facing an AL team starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or lower has earned a solid 36-20-3 record good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. Since 2016, there has been just one losing record season and that was in 2018 when it went 5-6, which is barely losing.  

Orioles vs Reds 
OVER for 8-UNITS 
Betting the OVER with an NL team that is averaging 4.4 to 4.9 RPG and is starting a pitcher with a season-to-date WHIP of 1.200 or lower and facing an AL team that is starting a pitcher with a 3.70 or lower ERA has earned a 47-28-3 record for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the total in these situations has been 9 or more runs, the OVER is a sparkling money-making 15-4-1 for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. 
 
 

Washington vs San Diego
8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total
Betting the Under with a total of 8.5 or more runs and with a team (Padres) averaging four or more walks per game and has allowed three or fewer runs in each of the past two games has earned a solid 118-63-5 record for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. This system has had profitable seasons in every one of the past five seasons. Now, if the game is the last game of any series, the Under has gone 36-15-3 for 71% winning bets.

NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line
1-unit bet that Kyle Schwarber will hit a home run

This betting opportunity is reinforced by a gross mismatch of starting pitchers, The Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the hill to make his 10th start and he has posted a 6.34 ERA and a 1.545 WHIP including 21 walks and 28 strikeouts in only 44 innings of work. This will be his sixth day start of the season and in his previous five days starts he has posted a horrid 8.43 ERA and a 1.828 WHIP with more walks (14) than strikeouts (13).

Even though the Phillies have a higher-than-average chase rate of pitches thrown out of the strike zone you can be sure that they will be selective on every first pitch delivery. For instance, right-handed batters will be shrinking the strike zone to only pitches that are thrown middle-in to them. That location is the best hot zone for RH batters. For left-handed batters like Kye Schwarber any pitch throw over the inner third and just above the knees is going to hit with an exit velocity around 110 MPH. Moreover, Schwarber has a great batting eye as evidenced by his 0.323 OBP percentage.

Zack Wheeler will be on the hill for the Phillies and he is 6-4 in 15 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP including 20 walks and 98 strikeouts spanning 88 innings of work. He has pitched remarkably well over his last three starts posting a remarkable 0.47 ERA and a 0.776 WHIP including four walks and 19 strikeouts spanning 19 1/34 innings of work.

Wheeler is a traditional 3-pitch power starter with an excellent fastball that has late-breaking arm-side movement with heavy sinking action averaging 96 MPH. What makes his fastball one of the best in MLB is that he averages a very tight and high spin rate of 2450 RPM. His slider averages 91 MPH and even higher spin rate at 2550 RPM. Then he will throw a curve with one of the highest spin rates in MLB at 2700 RPM. The spin rates are so high that it makes it nearly impossible for the batter to identify the pitch thrown. If the ‘red dot’ that can be seen on below average curve balls is invisible with Wheeler’s curve ball offerings. Moreover, just 4.5% of all pitches thrown have found the barrel of the bat this season.

Phillies skipper Thomson is 50-18 when facing a team that is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game and 9-3 in the 2023 season.

Minnesota vs Detroit
8-Unit best bet on the Minnesota Twins using the money line to defeat the Detroit Tigers Sunday. The AL Central is a mishmash of five struggling teams with the Twins leading with an even 39-39 record and the only team that has outscored their opponents. Four of the five teams are within six games of each other and will have to decide in the next few weeks if they are going to be buyers or sellers ahead of the trading deadline. The Boston Red Sox are last in the AL East division, but would be leading the AL Central division.

The following betting system has earned an outstanding 120-43 record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. The Requirements are to be on:
AL favorites between –125 and –175
The favorite has an OBP of 0.320 or lower
The favorite is starting a pitcher who did not walk a batter in his last start
The foe has a solid bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.

10-UNIT Best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds to defeat the Houston Astros using the money line.  
The Reds will start Hunter Greene, who is making his 14th start and has posted a 2.08 ERA and 0.866 WHIP including 28 strikeouts over the past three starts spanning 17 1/3 innings of work. He has struck out an amazing 33% of the batters faced using a dominating 99 MPH fastball that has significant arm-side movement. He is a traditional three-pitch power pitcher with an elite 88 MPH slider and 91 MPH changeup. His fastball is extremely tight spinning averaging a 2350 spin rate, which is the same spin rate most starters get on their curve balls – not their fastballs. He works ahead in the count and batters swing 67% of the time on his first pitch offering. Overall, batters have whiffed on 32% of his pitches this season.  
  
Reds skipper Bell is 20-12 making 15 units when facing AL teams allowing fewer than 4 RPG. The Reds are 14-9 for a 29% ROI when facing a left-handed starter this season. They are hammering left-handed starters batting 0.285 with a 0.l354 OBP and scoring 5.4 RPG. The Red's bullpen has come together recently and has posted a 3.29 ERA over their last seven games. Astros are batting just 0.235 with a terrible 0.293 OBP and scoring only 4.1 RPG when facing right-handed starters this season.   

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners 
10-UNIT BEST BET Over the posted total 
We have a situational betting system that has done quite well posting a solid 34-18-3 record good for 65% winning bets and earning a 27% ROI since 2019. The requirements are to be the Over with an AL team scoring between 4.3 and 4.6 RPG and is starting a pitcher with solid control posting a 1.200 or lower WHIP and facing an NL foe that is starting a pitcher with a 3.70 or lower ERA. Drilling down a bit further if the foe (Marlins) is coming off an OVER result, the OVER in the current game has gone 17-7-2 for 71% winning bets since 2019. 

 
Bryce Miller will be on the hill for the Mariners and he has been shelled over his last three starts posting a 10.38 ERA and a 1.846 WHIP and averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start. In his most recent start, he went 2 2/3 innings allowing seven earned runs in a 12-3 loss to the Yankees. In his second to last start, he completed 4 2/3 innings and allowed eight earned runs in a loss to the Texas Rangers.  
 
The Marlins are playing their best baseball of this season and their best in many seasons. They are 7 games over .500 and have won nine of their last 11 games and riding a two-game win streak. During these 11 games, they are averaging 5.36 RPG. The Seattle bullpen is also struggling recently and has posted a terrible 6.75 ERA and 1.637 WHIP including 33 hits, 6 HR, and 15 BB spanning 29 1/3 innings of work.  
 
From my predictive models, we expect both starters to combine for 11 or fewer innings of work and for the two teams to have a combined 2 or more innings in which they scored multiple runs. Over the past three seasons, the Marlins are 119-38-9 OVER for 76% winning bets when they have met or exceeded these measures. Similarly, the Mariners are 141-39-8 OVER for 78% winning bets.  
 

Red Sox vs Yankees 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Red Sox using the money line 
Yankees are a terrible 34-43 (-17.0 Units) when facing a starting pitcher, who strikes out five or more batters per start spanning the last two seasons. Yankees are struggling at the plate this season batting an anemic 0.234 and scoring just 4.6 RPG and have struckout 538 times in just 64 games. They rank 23rd in team batting average, 23rd in hits per game, dead last averaging 1.25 doubles per game, and 22nd in averaging 3.11 walks per game.  

Red Sox ranks 6th scoring 4.98 RPG, 7th in total bases, 6th in hits per game, and first in doubles per game. With the elimination of the defensive shift, doubles have become even more valuable than the home run. Doubles get men instantly in scoring position, can already have scored men and put themselves in scoring position, or can dictate the start to a multiple-run scoring inning. So, this is a monumental advantage for the Red Sox in this series. 

Los Angeles vs Philadelphia 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line 
The Phillies were on a frive game losing streak and 7-games under .500 with the season at stake and suddenly they have won six straight games. Last night they took the first of a 3-gamne series against the Dodgers and will Aaron Nola on the hill today. He haqd a no-hitter going into the 8th inning in his last start walking three batters and striking out 12. He is in top form and expect him to complete at least 6 innings and allow three or fewer earned runs.  
The Phillies are 13-6 over the past two seasons in home games and facing a NL starting pitcher that has an ERA of 2.75 or lower on the season. Dodgers are just 4-12 when on the road and having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games spanning the past three seasons. 

Arizona vs Detroit 

8-Unit Bet on the Detroit Tigers using the money line 
 
Betting on home teams in a game priced between a –120 favorite and a 120 underdog that is starting a pitcher that averages five or fewer innings per start and has an anemic offense averaging 3.75 or fewer RPG on the season has earned a highly profitable 56-35 record for 62% and earning a 24% ROI spanning the past five seasons. If involving an inter-league matchup the record improves to an impressive 8-2 mark for 80% winners and earning a 60% ROI spanning the past five seasons. 

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres (Wednesday) 
8-Unit Best Bet Over ther posted total 

This is on eof the thirty-three betting situations that comprise the fully automated and 100% OBJECTIVE betting portfolio that has been selling for just $99.00 for the rest of the MLB season and since you are already a subscriber, I will take off another $20 bucks today only and the cost to you is a paltry $79.00 for all of baseball to the all-star break! 
 
Betting the Over with an AL team that is scoring between 4.3 and 4./6 RPG on the season and is starting pitcher with excellent control posting a season-to-date WHIP of 1.200 or lower and facing an NL foe that is starting a pitcher that has posted a solid 3.70 or lower ERA on the season has gone 33-18-3 over the past five seasons and earning an excellent 27% ROI. If the game is not the first game of a series, the Over has produced a 25-10-2 record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

From the predictive models we are expecting the Mariners and Padres to each have at least one multiple-run inning and for the starters to combine for fewer than 11 innings of work, In past road games, the Over is 156-24-3 for 87% winning bets when the Mariners have met these performance measures and in home games, the Padres are 128-21-5 Over for 86% winning bets. 

Okland vs Miami 
10-Unit best bet OVER the Total 

There are many statistical aberrations each MLB season that moves the market and value of the teams that offer highly profitable betting opportunities. The A’s have been outscored by 210 runs on the season, scoring an anemic 201 runs while allowing 411 runs. The following betting system exploits specific opportunties betting against these teams in games played in June. 

The system supports bets on the Overs and has earned a 10-4-1 record for 71.4% winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Over with a team that is favored by no more than –195 on the money line and facing a foe that has been outscored by 150 or more runs with the game played in the month of  June.  

The Starting Pitchers in this Matchup 

The Marlins will have their ace, Sandy Alcantara, on the hill, and has struggled mightily this season. He threw an enormous number of pitches over the past two seasons and has the most complete games of any other starter in MLB. He has posted a 2-5 record in 11 starts with a terrible 5.06 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP including 25 walks and 60 strikeouts spanning 69 1/3 innings of work. Since pitching a complete game 9-0 shutout against Minnesota on April 4, he has allowed two earned runs in nine consecutive starts. 

Alcantara maintains an electric fastball that ranks in the 95th percentile of all starters, but the movement and spin rates are down from his average amounts this season. This is reflected in the fact that he is allowing a 41% hard hit percentage, which is the highest since his rookie season. Don’t ever forget that the A’s despite having just 12 wins have MLB caliber players on their roster. They would not be at this level or even Triple-A ball if they were not talented players. So, I do see the A’s scoring a few runs today facing Alcantara.  

Paul Blackburn will be on the hill for the A’s and making his second start of the season. He was the starting pitcher in the A’s 7-2 win over the Braves. His fastball averages 91 MPH and has an array of other pitches that keep batters on their toes. My take is to watch the first inning or two and look for the Marlins to be looking to take his offerings to the opposite field. If they are, and there is no score at the end of the first inning, then adding an additional bet on the Over using the money line is an exceptional opportunity. 

The Betting Strategy for this Game 

My plan is to bet 60% preflop Over the posted total currently offered at 7.5 runs paying –115 vig by FanDuel. If the first inning is scoreless then the total will drop to 7 or preferably 6.5 runs. I will add 20% more at a price of 6.5 runs. Then if the scoring continues to be anemic and we will get a chance to bet Over 5.5 runs at any point during the first five innings. If the scoring erupts., then we will not get the 20% remaining bet placed, but we will have 80% placed at exceptional price levels. 

Player Props I am Betting Pizza Money On 

When I mention a pizza money bet, it is just that, betting the cost of a single pizza $15 to $25 depending on how toppings you may like on your pizza. Points is these are small bets, but ones that will add to your total profits over the course of the season. 

Bet Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +127 at Caesars 
Bet Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits +150 at DraftKings 
Bet Jesus Sanchez to hit a home run +475 at DraftKings 
Bet A’s Seth Brown to record an RBI +185 at BetRivers 

NY Yankees vs Seattle Mariners 
10-Unit Best Bet on the Yankees using the money line  
Yes, this is a powerful dog we have in place for the 10-Unit best bet. A strategy I like and have done may times already this season is to be 7-units on the money line preflop and then look for Seattle to score first and then add the remaining 30% using the money line or in this case since it is a dog, using the +1.5-run line. If the game is 0-0 through five innings, then just keep the 70% amount in place. 

Betting on any AL team that is batting no better than 0.260 for the season and has scored seven or more runs in three consecutive games has earned a highly profitable 154-94 averaging a –103 wager and earning a 17.25% ROI since the start of the 2004 season. If our team is priced as the dog, the record improves to 54-46 averaging a +139 wager and earning a 26% ROI. Moreover, if our dog is priced between 125 and 175 on the money line, they get even better producing a 26-15 record averaging a +151 wager and earning a 59% ROI. The Dime bettor has made $67,200 betting on this situational system and has not had a losing season ever.  

Here is a second situational betting system that has earned a 58-25 record averaging a +142 wager and earning an outstanding 33% ROI. The requirements are to bet on road dogs between 125 and 175 that is facing a starter in solid form posting a WHIP of 1.100 or lower spanning his last ten starts and has posted as 1.100 or better WHIP for the current season.  
 

Minnesota vs Las Vegas WNBA 
8-Unit Best bet on the OVER 
From the predictive models, the Aces is expected to score 84 or more points. The Aces are 74-31 in games in which they have scored 84 or more points spanning the last five seasons. When the Lynx allowed 84 or more points in a road game has produced a 47-5-1 Over record good for 90.4% winning bets spanning the past five seasons. 

Betting the Over in a matchup in which the road team is coming off a loss to a divisional foe while the host is coming off a win over a divisional foe and with a total of at least 140 points has earned a highly profitable 40-15-3 Over record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners 
8-Unit best bet on the A’s using the money line. You can also reduce the risk to a 6-Unit bet to account for the 200 money line wager. These huge dogs have done quite well over the course of a season-spanning the last 10 seasons, so even if this one loses, we know to keep playing on them when they are active as defined by the following system. 
Betting on dogs of 165 and higher that have played five consecutive games getting 9 or fewer hits in each of the five games, and are averaging just 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game has produced a 71-109 record for 39% winning tickets, but by averaging a 2-3 underdog bet has earned a highly profitable 18.7% ROI.  
 
 

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat 
10-Unit best bet on the OVER 

The Celtics gave up. Period. They scored 63 points through three quarters. A team with a high payroll and those high-priced players had no chance of containing FOUR undrafted Heat players. So, just five days ago, a franchise picked as heavy favorites to advance to the NBA Finals, and now a franchise in chaos. Blame will be assigned to many within the organization and players and moves and firings will take place. Jaylen Brown, who is just 2-for20 from beyond the arc in the first three games of this series will most assuredly be traded. He will command a $280MM extension and there will be many teams, the 76ers one of the leaders, that would welcome Brown with open arms to pair up with Maxey.  

So, the Celtic launched 98 shot attempts and made 40% of them in Game 3. The Heat took 81 shots and made 57% of them. The Celtics were outscored in the paint 52-42. The Celtics' biggest lead was three points and that occurred early in the first quarter. The Heat led by as many as 33 points in a game that Boston was highly expected to show up and get a huge dominating win. Thank goodness we were on the Heat again.  
 
So, the OVER is 12-3 for 80% in the NBA playoffs when a team (Miami) is coming off a game attempting 15 or fewer shots but making at least five or more shots. If the game is played at home, the Over has gone a perfect 8-0! 

From the predictive model, the Heat has seen the OVER post a 25-5 record for 83% cashed tickets when scoring 111 or more points and committing 12 or fewer turnovers in home games spanning the past three seasons.  
 
Player Props for no more than 1-Unit Pizza money-sized bets unless otherwise noted 
Jimmy Butler OVER rebounds+ assists 13.5 -102 at FanDuel 
Jayson Tatem OVER 3.5 turnovers +110 at BetMGM 
Jaylen Brown OVER 33.5 PRA –120 at DraftKings 
Gabe Vincent OVER 16.5 PRA -110 at FanDuel 
 

San Francisco vs Minnesota 
8-Unit best Bet OVER the posted total 
The same betting algorithm that applied to this game yesterday is also active again today. Betting the Over in a game with an AL foe scoring an average of 4.3 to 4.6 RPG and starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a WHIP of 1.200 or lower, and facing a NL foe starting a pitcher with a 3.7 or lower ERA has earned a 30-15-3 record for 67% and earning a highly profitable 25% ROI over the past five seasons. 
 

Connecticut vs Washington 
8-Unit best bet on the OVER 
These two team squared off Sunday and was a winning 8-Unit best bet on Washington, who defeated Connecticut as a 1-point dog by the final score of 80-74. Both teams shot poorly from the field with both shooting under 40% for the game. However, the game total of 154 points was played Under by just five points (159 Total). With two games under their belts, the flow of the game will be much smoother and the game goes over the 159.5-point posted total.  
 
From my predictive models, both teams are projected to score at least 80 points each. In past games, Connecticut is 103-4-1 for 96% winning bets when they and their opponent both score 80 or more points. Washington is 100-5-1 Over in the same role. Connecticut is 138-42-2 Over with a posted total of 159 or more points and both teams scoring 75 or more points. Washington is 81-36 for 69% winners when they and their foe both score 75 or more points in games with a posted total of 159 or more points. 

CWS vs Cleveland 
8-Unit best bet on the CWS using the money line  
Betting on road teams priced between a –125 favorite and a 125 underdog following two consecutive games leaving 6 or fewer batters on base on each game and having an overworked bullpen has thrown 13 or more innings spanning their past three games. 
Despite the excessive workload, the CSW pen has posted a 1.25 ERA and a 0.692 WHIP over their last seven games spanning 21 2/3 innings of work. Both teams struggle to score runs, but especially the Guardians, who are second worst only to the Oakland A’s scoring an average of 3.6 RPG and batting 0.225 on the season. They are scoring 3.6 RPG and batting a horrid 0.212 over their past seven games.  

Miami vs Boston  
8-Unit best bet on the Heat plus the points 
The Boston Celtics fell apart again, this time in Game 1 holding a 12-point lead early in the third quarter only to squander the lead and fall 12 points behind at the end of the stanza. Marcus Smart had 10 assists in the first quarter, none in the second, just one in the third, and mome in the fourth. Celtics head coach failed to even call a timeout during the third quarter collapse and his inexperience really showed against one of the best veteran head coaches in the NBA in Spoelstra. Jimmy Butler is not going to let his team think they accomplished what they set out do by earning a split in the first two games.  

From the predictive model, we are expecting Miami to shoot better than Boston and to have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past road games in which Miami met these performance measures has earned them a 63-11 SU record, 64-10 ATS mark (87%) winning bets in road games played in the past five seasons. In road playoff games, the Heat have gone 20-0 SU and 18-2 ATS for 90%. In playoff games, the Celtics are 1-11 SUATS when not shooting better than their foe and having the worse assist-to-turnover ratio spanning the past five seasons. 

 
Player Props for no more than 1-Unit Pizza money sized bets unless otherwise noted 
Max Strus Over 2.5 made 3-pointers –123 at BetMGM 
Jimmy Butler to record a double-double +390 at DraftKings 
Al Horford to commit at least 1 turnover –125 at BetMGM 

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies 
10-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line, currently priced at –123. An alternative wager is to bet 7-Units money line and 3-Units -1.5 run line +150. 
 
Both of these National League clubs have had a rough stretch over the past two weeks. The Phillies have lost four straight games after winning the first two games of their recent six-game road trip. They lost the finale of the three-game series agfainst the Colorado Rockies and then were swept by the San Francisco Giants. The Cubs have lost five straight games and eight of their last 10 games. They are comig off a three game sweep to the Houston Astros in which they were outscored 20-13. During the first six games of their current nine-game road trip, ther Cubs have been outscored 47-17.  

The Cubs will have Marcus Stroman on the hill, who has posted a 2-4 record with a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP including 19 walks and 47 strikeouts over 50 innings pitched. The Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who will be making his secod start of the season after returning from the injury list. He allowed three earned runs over four innings of work in the loss to the Coloardo Rockies. 

The Phillies are 19-11 in home games when on a two game losing streak averaging a –137 wager when Bryce Harper has had two or fewer hits over his two previous games played spanning the last three seasons. When Harper and fellow teammate Kyle Schwarber are coming off a game in which both had no more than a single hit, the Phillies are 24-13 averaging a –136 favorite in home games played over the past three seasons.  

A Highly Profitable Situational Super System 

The following situational super system has produced a 75-39 record for 66% winning bets averaging a –115 wager and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team winning between 45 and 50% of their games that has lost four or five of their last six games and is playing a struggling team winning between 40 and 45% of their games.  

Drilling deeper into the data if the guest is a divisional foe the record soars to 44-16 for 73% winning tickets averaging a –117 wager and earning a 37% ROI over the past five seasons. Bet the Phillies Friday. 

Minnesota vs LA Dodgers 
8-Unit best bet on the Dodgers using the money line 

Betting on teams that allowed two or fewer runs in each of their past two games and facing a foe coming off a slugfest in which 15 or more runs were scored has earned a 52-32 record averaging a –100 bet and earning a 17% ROI over the past five seasons. If our team ws the host, the record soars to 33-9 for a 44% ROi over the past five seasons. 
 
Dodgers are rolling coming off a 3-game sweep fi the division-rival Padres and winners of five straight games. They won in a 4-0 shutout Sunday and allowed two runs each in the first games of the series. The Twins are coming off a 16-3 destruction of the Chicago Cubs Sunday.  
 
 

Seattle vs Boston 
8-Unit best bet on Boston using the money line if priced at +100 or greater underdog. 
Boston is 28-9 making 19.8 units per unit wagered when facing a team from the Al West in games played over the past two seasons. Tanner Houck is on thehill for the Red Sox and is 9-1 at night starts. Boston skipper Cora is a solid 73-34 when facing a team with a slugging percentage of 0.400 or lower.  

LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles 
8-Unit best bet on the Orioles using the money line 
 
The Orioles are a home dog because they are facing the amazing Shohei Ohtani, who is 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA including 66 strikeouts over 46 innings of work. In his last start, the right-hander held the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros to three runs on six hits with seven strikeouts and two walks in seven innings in the Angels' 3-1 loss on Tuesday. However, Ohtani set a MLB record and joined Babe Ruth as the only two players to hit 100 or more home runs and strikeouts 500 or more batters.  

Only five current players on the Orioles roster have faced Ohtani but have batted a combined 0.500 against him. Adam Frazier has 8 at bats and four hits, Cedric Mullins is 2-for 3 with a homerun and Anthony Santander is 2-for-2 with a home run. 

 
The Orioles have the second-best record in MLB and are flying under the radar in the major media outlets. Despite striking out 17 times Sunday, they rank 9th overall averaging 8.23 strikeouts per game. Baltimore ranks 12th averaging 1.83 doubles per game while the Angels are a distant 27th averaging 1.39 per game. Doubles are mostly hit in the gaps or down the foul lines and nothing starts or keeps a multiple run inning intact then does the double.  

Baltimore’s bullpen is far superior to the Angles. They allow 31% of inherited runners to score. The Angels pen allows 50% ranking third worst in MLB.  

Betting on home teams priced between a 125 dog and –125 favorite that have won four of their last five games in the first game of a series has earned a 28-16 record for 64% and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. 
 
Bet on the Baltimore Orioles using the money line. 

Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Warriors plus the points. My LIVE I-game strategy is to bet 60% preflop and then look to add 20% more at Warriors +6.5 and the remaining 20% at Warriors +9.5 points during the first half of action. I do like the Under for a 5-Unit amount too.  
  LeBron is 15-0 in games that close out a series, but this is the reigning world champion Warriors that still has Steph, Klay and Draymond in it. I have stated that I thought this series woud go 7 games despite the Warriors being down 3 games to 1. The Warriors have played 28 consecutive playoff series attaining at least one road win in every series.  
  The 7 seeds are 59-164 SU (27%), 85-135-3 ATS (39%) in the playoffs since 2002. A 7-seed has not made it to the Conference Finals since at least 2002. In a series in which the 7-seed was leading or was tied, they have gone 31-80 SU and 44-64-3 ATS for 41% and the Under has been solid at 63-45-3 for 58% winning tickets. From game-5 on, these 7-seeds are just 3-24 SU and 8-19 ATS. The Under is 18-5 for 78% winning tickets when favored.  

Since 2013, the Warriors are 9-3 SU (75%) and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners when facing elimination.  
 
 

Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Warriors plus the points. My LIVE I-game strategy is to bet 60% preflop and then look to add 20% more at Warriors +6.5 and the remaining 20% at Warriors +9.5 points during the first half of action. I do like the Under for a 5-Unit amount too.  
  LeBron is 15-0 in games that close out a series, but this is the reigning world champion Warriors that still has Steph, Klay and Draymond in it. I have stated that I thought this series woud go 7 games despite the Warriors being down 3 games to 1. The Warriors have played 28 consecutive playoff series attaining at least one road win in every series.  
  The 7 seeds are 59-164 SU (27%), 85-135-3 ATS (39%) in the playoffs since 2002. A 7-seed has not made it to the Conference Finals since at least 2002. In series in which the 7-seed was leading or was tied, they have gone 31-80 SU and 44-64-3 ATS for 41% and the Under has been solid at 63-45-3 for 58% winning tickets. From game-5 on, these 7-seeds are just 3-24 SU and 8-19 ATS. The Under is 18-5 for 78% winning tickets when favored.  

Since 2013, the Warriors are 9-3 SU (75%) and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners when facing elimination.  
 
 

Knicks vs Heat 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Heat minus the points. My in-game LIVE strategy is to bet 75% on the Heat preflop and then look to add 25% more on the Heat at pick-em or better.  
 
From my predictive models, we are expecting the Heat to shoot 48% or better from the field and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past home games, in which the Heat met these performance measures has earned an outstanding 50-5 SU record and 45-10 ATS record for 82% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors 

8-Unit best bet on the Warriors minus the points. I like the strategy of betting 60% preflop at the current price and then looking to add 20% more at Warriors – 4.5 and Warriors –1.5 points. 

Betting on any team off a loss of three or fewer points to a divisional foe and with that foe having covered the spread in their last two games priced as a favorite has earned an outstanding 21-6 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 27 seasons.  

Betting on any playoff team trailing in the series 3 games to one, coming off a heart-breaking loss by three or fewer points and is now the favorite up to and including -9.5 points has earned a perfect 7-0 SUATS record.  
 
Take the Warriors 
 

NJ Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes 
8-Unit best bet on the Devils using the money line 
 
Betting on road teams in the second half of the season that are revenging a road blowout loss of 4 or more goals and is a matchup of two elite teams winning between 60 and 70% of their matches has earned an outstanding 26-21record averaging a +128 dog bet and producing a 20% ROI since 2008. If a playoff game, these road warriors have earned a 10-7 record averaging +125 wager and producing a 28% ROI. Bounce back time for the Devils.  
 

Boston vs Philadelphia Game-3 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers plus the points, currently priced at +2 points.  
For live in-game betting consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the 76ers at the line offered at your book. Then, bet 15% on the 76ers at +5.5 points and 15% more at +7.5 points during the first half of action only. You are betting the full game lines during the first half of action. The reason we are not betting these two 15% amounts in the second half is simply that there is too little time remaining in the game to be right. It’s like trading options in the market on the S&P 500 and having a month till the contracts expire or less than 2 weeks. The value of your options will decay (Theta) much faster with just two weeks left till expiration just as the value of a second half LIVE bet will diminish the closer it gets to the final buzzer. Don’t be concerned with what Theta means and how it is calculated as I will present that in an upcoming university show. 

Philadelphia is 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss in games played this season, and 15-5 ATS when revenging a loss in which the foe scored 110 or more points this season. 
 

From the predictive models, we are looking for the 76ers to score 114 or more points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the 76ers met these performance measures have led them to post a 116-13 SU (90%) record and 97-31-1 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the 76ers are 34-3 SU and 28-8-1 ATS. The Celtics have posted a money-losing 6-17 SU and 6-15-2 ATS record (29%) when allowing 114 or more points and the lower assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past five seasons.  
Bet on the 76ers and always bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours! 

Baltimore vs Atlanta 

8-Unit best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 Run line  
 
Betting on any team that is coming off a three-game sweep of a divisional rival and is facing a foe from the other league (inter-league) has earned a solid 30-12 record averaging a –111 wager and producing a 33% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. The Run line is 15-9 63% averaging a –103 bet and a 30% ROI. 

Minnesota vs Cleveland 
8-Unit best bet OVER 8.5 runs 
From the predictive models, the two starters in this matchup will not complete more than 11 innings of work and both offenses will combine for three or more multiple-run innings. In past games, the Twins are 163-24-7 Over for 87% when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. Similarly, the Guardians are 143-6-2 Over for 96% winners.  
 

Red Sox vs Phillies 

8-UNIT best Bet on the Red Sox using the money line currently at +125 
Betting on any team that is coming off a three-game sweep of a divisional rival and is facing a foe from the other league (inter-league) has earned a solid 30-12 record averaging a –111 wager and producing a 33% ROI in games played over the past five seasons.  

The 76ers will be hosting the Celtics a few hundred yards from Citizen’s Bank Park at the same time so the atmosphere will be more than just festive. However, the Phillies are not closing games well and the Red Sox offense has been steadily getting better and more consistent since the start of the season. Again, we are betting numbers and not mascots and not if the other’s city’s NBA franchise is playing at the same time. It is noteworthy however.  

Boston is scoring 6.1 RPG and batting .286 against RH starters and over the past seven days has averaged 7 RPG and batted 0.350. So, Wheller will have his hands full even if he is in top form tonight 

Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics 
8-Unit best bet on the 76ers minus the points, currently priced at –9.5 points.  
(Repeat from yesterday) For those new to the service, thank you for trusting me and my 28 years of pro experience and looking to build strong long-lasting relationships with all of you. The 8-unit bet is your normal bet size, but I do highly recommend you make it 4% of your total bankroll. The 8-Unit best bet is the most common and is the foundation of my betting methods and strategies. The sacle for sides and totals ranges from 5 to 10-Units with 10-Units being akin to other’s Games of the month or Games of the Year. Even though the 10-Unit best bets have hit at 68.4% across all major sports and spanning more than 3 calendar years you must be disciplined and resist the temptation to bet more than what a 10-Unit betting amount is for you. So, if you bet $100 per unit, the 8-unit is $800 and the 10-unit $1000. Note, that there is a 25% increase in the amount wagered between the 8 and 10-unit bets. So, if you bet $100 per 8-unit wager, the 10-unit would be $125.00 and never more than $150 no matter what.  

     Player prop bets will range from 0.25% to 2% of your bankroll or $25.00 for the 2% bet if you are wagering $100 per 8-unit bet. 

     Pizza money bets mean that it is up to you to decide whether it is a plain pizza costing 0.25% or a full supreme double cheese, double pepperoni for $25.00 or 2% of the bankroll. (end of repeat intro) 

Let’s now get to the analytics, shall we?  

For live in-game betting consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the 76ers at the line offered at your book. Then, bet 15% on the 76ers at 14.5 points and 15% more at 17.5 points during the first half of action only. You are betting the full game lines during the first half of action. The reason we are not betting these two 15% amounts in the second half is simply that there is too little time remaining in the game to be right. It’s like trading options in the market on the S&P 500 and having a month till the contracts expire or less than 2 weeks. The value of your options will decay (Theta) much faster with just two weeks left till expiration just as the value of a second-half LIVE bet will diminish the closer it gets to the final buzzer. Don’t be concerned with what Theta means and how it is calculated as I will present that in an upcoming university show. 

From the predictive models, we are looking for the 76ers to score 110 points and have a better, more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the 76ers met these performance measures have led them to post a 57-7 SU record (89%) and 48-16 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past three seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the 76ers are 24-1 SU and 19-6 ATS. The Celtics have posted a money-losing 25-31 SU and 20-36 ATS record (36%) when allowing 110 or more points and the lower assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past three seasons.  
Bet on the 76ers and always bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours! 

LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors 
5-Unit best bet on the OVER 228.5 points. 
 
Live In-Game Strategy: With a total above 220 points, the volatility of scoring is going to be significant in this game tonight and is expected to provide excellent LIVE game betting opportunities. So, the strategy is to bet 60% preflop and then look to add 20% at 222.5 points and 20% more at 218.5 points. You may not get one or both 20% bets placed at your book, But if that occurs, it also implies that the 60% preflop is winning comfortably. These price levels re calculated specifically using a modified version of the implied volatility metric commonly used in options trading. Again, this is all for another show. 

Teams in Game-1 of an NBA series that are coming off a road win in Game-7 are 12-6-1 Over for 67% winning bets. if they are the home team in Game-1, then the Over is a perfect 5-0.  

Betting the Over when the total is between 220 and 229.5 points with a home team that lost the previous meeting to the current foe and is coming off a road win to a divisional foe has earned a 45-19-4 Over record good for 70% winning bets since 2017, which is the year scoring in the NBA began to increase significantly. 
 
 
 

Miami Heat vs NY Knicks 
8-Unit best bet on the Knicks minus the points, currently priced at –6.5 points. For those new to the service, thank you for trusting me and my 28 years of pro experience and looking to build strong long-lasting relationships with all of you. The 8-unit bet is your normal bet size, but I do highly recommend you make it 4% of your total bankroll. The 8-Unit best bet is the most common and is the foundation of my betting methods and strategies. The sacle for sides and totals ranges from 5 to 10-Units with 10-Units being akin to other’s Games of the month or Games of the Year. Even though the 10-Unit best bets have hit at 68.4% across all major sports and spanning more than 3 calendar years you must be disciplined and resist the temptation to bet more than what a 10-Unit betting amount is for you. So, if you bet $100 per unit, the 8-unit is $800 and the 10-unit $1000. Note, that there is a 25% increase in the amount wagered between the 8 and 10-unit bets. So, if you bet $100 per 8-unit wager, the 10-unit would be $125.00 and never more than $150 no matter what.  

Player prop bets will range from 0.25% to 2% of your bankroll or $25.00 for the 2% bet if you are wagering $100 per 8-unit bet. 

Pizza money bets mean that it is up to you to decide whether it is a plain pizza costing 0.25% or a full supreme double cheese, double pepperoni for $25.00 or 2% of the bankroll. 

Let’s now get to the analytics, shall we? In the second round of the NBA playoffs teams that lost Game-1 and are the lower seed (better regular season record) and are favored between 5 and 10 points in Game-2 have gone 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets. This obviousy supports the bet on the Knicks. 

For live in-game betting consider betting 70% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the Knicks at the line offered at your book. Then, bet 15% on the Knicks at –2.5 points and 15% more at pick-em during the first half of action only. You are bettig the full game lines during the first half of action. The reason we are not betting these two 15% amounts in the second half is simply that there is too little time remaining in the game to be right. It Islike trading options in the market on the S&P 500 and having a month till the contracts expire or less than 2 weeks. The value of your options will decay (Theta) much faster with just two weeks left till expiration just as the value of a second half LIVE bet will diminish the closer it gets to the final buzzer. Don’t be concerned with what Theta means and how it is calculated as I will present that in an upcoming university show. 

From the predictive models, we are looking for the Knicks to score 114 or more points and shoot 49% or better from the field. In past games in which the Knicks met these performance measures has led them to post a 36-9 SU record (80%) and 33-11-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past three seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the Kicks are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. Miami has posted a money-losing 11-35 SU and 10-36 ATS record (22%) when allowing 115 or more points and allowing a shooting percentage 49% or higher in games played over the past three seasons. If after the break and including playoffs 1-3 SU and ATS. 
 
Bet on the Miami Heat and always bet with your head and not over it and may all the wins be yours! 

New Jersey vs NY Rangers 
10-Unit best bet OVER the total of 5.5 goals getting +115 money 
Betting the Over with a total of 5.5 goals and involving a road team that allowed no more than one goal in their previous two games and facing a foe that has lost their last two games by two or more goals has earned a 33-18 record for 65% winning bets since 2006. If our game takes place in the playoffs, the Over has gone 7-2 for 78% winning bets.  
 
Rangers are 18-9 Over in home games and facing a team that is outshooting their foes by 3 or more shots-on-goal in games played over the past two seasons. The Devils are 22-12-2 Over 65% winning bets after having won three of their last four games in games played this season. 
 

Minnesota vs Denver 
8-Unit best bet on the Over currently priced at 225 points 
Betting on the Over in playoff games with a total of 225 or more points in matchups involving the #1 seed and leading in the playoff series are 25-10 Over for 71% winning bets. 

From my predictive models, we learn that Denver is 74-9 SU and 59-22-2 for 73% winners when scoring 114 or more points and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past three seasons. The Wolves are just 14-62 SU and 18-58-2 ATS (22%) when allowing 114 or more points and having the weaker assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past three seasons. 

Boston vs Atlanta 
Game-4 
8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Celtics minus the 6 points 
Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who lost the last time they played this opponent and that opponent scored 100 or more points. The host is coming off a home win in which they scored 120 or more points and has earned an outstanding 34-8 SU 81% record and 29-13 ATS mark for 69% winning bets. This situational betting system has not had a losing season since 2004. If the game is taking place in the playoffs, our favorite is 7-2 ATS. 

Cleveland vs Knicks 
8-Unit best bet on the Knicks minus the points 
 
Betting on home teams in the same playoff round that are priced between a 3.5 dog and 3.5 favorite that defeated their foe in the previous game and with that foe shooting a horrid 25% from beyond the arc have gone 24-8 ATS for 75% since 2006. If our host is a favorite from pick-em to –3.5 points has earned an even better 18-4 ATS mark for 82% winners. 

From my predictive models, we learn that the Cavs are just 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS for 15% when allowing 111 or more points and getting outrebounded by 10 or more boards in games played over the past three seasons. The Knicks are 26-8 SU and 27-7 ATS for 79% winning bets when outrebounding their foes by 10 or more boards and scoring 111 or more points in games played over the past three seasons. 

NJ Devils vs NY Rangers 
8-Unit bet bet on the Devils using the money line 

Betting on road dogs between +100 and +180 on the money line and has sallowed four or ore goals in each fo their past two games and facing a foe that allowed just one goals has produced an exceptinoal 107-116 record, averaging a 142-dog bet, making the dime bettor a profit of $39,000 good for a 14% annual ROI since 2011. 

If this situation is in a playoff game, the record has been 9-3 on the money line averaging a 144 bet good for a 76% ROI. 

New Jersey, seeded second in the Metropolitan Division, dropped the first two games to the third-seeded Rangers by identical 5-1 scores on home ice. The Devils are a young team, who owned a 3-0-1 mark against the Rangers in the regular season. They are losing the special teams battle badly and still seeking their first five-on-five goal in this series.  

In the playoffs, teams that lost their two previous games by 2 or more goals and are now on the road have gone an impressive 33-40 averaging a whopping +149 dog bet making the die bettor a 17,000 profit and a solid 16% ROI over the past 15 playoff seasons.  

Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A’s 
8-Unit best bet on the Oakland A’s using the money line currently priced at +150 
 
Betting on home dogs whose bullpen allowed four or more runs in their last game and were out hit by that foe by 10 or more hits has earned an outstanding 44-28 SU record averaging a +150-betting line for a solid 47% ROI since 2015. It has also produced a solid 50-22 on the +1.5-run line for 69% winning bets averaging a –118 wager and a 38% ROI since 2016. 
 
So, consider a combination wager consisting of 3 units on the money line and 5-Units on the run line, but I am making this a flat money line bet at +150. 

Minnesota vs Boston 
8-Unit best bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line 
 
Betting on home teams that has a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.33 or lower for the season and hosting a foe that is scoring 4.25 or fewer runs per game and is coming off two straight games stranding five or fewer runners on base in each game has earned an outstanding 34-5 over the past five seasons and is 3-0 this season and 29-4 over the past three seasons. 

 
 
Bet the Red Sox 

Philadelphia vs CWS 
8-Unit best bet on the Phillies using the money line and boxed with Zack Wheeler. 

Phillies skipper Thomson is 23-7 making 16 units on the money line when his team has lost four or five of their last 6 games. Phillies are 45-25 making 19 units following a game in which the bullpen did not allow an earned run in games played over the past two seasons. 
 
Zack Wheller will be on the hill for the Phillies and despite being 0-1 in 3 starts, he has pitched deeper into each of these three starts. In his last start he went 6 innings allowing just one earned run on three hits with three walks and six strikeouts.  

The CWS will have Lance Lynn on the hill and he is nowhere close to top form sporting a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP over his three starts and is now facing the strongest hitting team in the NL and perhaps all of baseball in the Phillies. 
 
 

Nets vs 76ers 

8-Unit bets bet on the 76ers minus the points, currently priced at 10. 

The Nets had a game plan to double-team Joel Embiid and force the other 76ers on the floor to make perimeter shots and they sure came through with a franchise record 21 made 3-pointers. So, now that the Nets went all-in with that game plan and it failed, the alternative to not double-team Embiid could lead to an even worse outcome for the Nets.  

Over the past five playoff seasons, teams that have won between 45 and 55% of their games during the regular season and are trailing in the series are just 7-30 ATS for 19%. Playing on the home teams in Game-2 of an NBA Round 1 playoff series regardless if they are priced as a dog or favorite has gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winners over the past five seasons. Double digit favorites in the playoffs are 23-4 SU and 18-7-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

From my predictive models, we are expecting the 76ers to score 115 or more points and shoot 48% or better from the field. In past home games in which the 76ers met or exceeded those performance measures, has led them to a 45-1 SU record and 34-12 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons.  

New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers (April 15) 
10-Unit best bet on the Cavaliers minus the points 
 

The top-4 seeds in the first two games of a playoff round are favored by 6 to 10 points and have the higher effective field goal percentage is 38-17-1 ATS for 69% of winners since 2017. Drilling down a bit further, if the total is between 205 and 215, these home teams have gone a quite impressive 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2017.  

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Cavaliers to score 111 or more points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the Cavs have met or exceeded these measures in home games has led to a highly profitable 27-6-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past three seasons. The Knicks in road games are just 12-24-2 ATS for 33% in the same scenarios.  
 

Nets vs Sixers Game-1 Round 1 (April 15)  
8-Unit best bet on the Sixers minus the points 
 
Betting on home teams in the playoffs facing a 6th seed or higher seed that has the lower opponent effective field goal percentage during the regular season are 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, seeds 1 through 4 in the first two games of a playoff series that have the better season-to-date effective field goal percentage are 72-51-1 ATS for 59% winners since 2017. Moreover, the top-4 seeds in the first two games of a playoff round are favored by 6 to 10 points and have the higher effective field goal percentage is 38-17-1 ATS for 69% winners since 2017.  
The 76ers had the third-highest scoring fourth-quarter scoring differential in the NBA this season. Playoff home favorites that outscored their foes by an average of 1.75 or more PPG in the fourth stanza are 87-58-2 ATS for 60% winners. Overall, the 76ers went 54-28 SU and an impressive 48-34 ATS for 59% winning bets and in home games went 29-12 SU and 25-16 ATS for 61% winning bets this season.  

LA Angels vs Boston Red Sox 
8-Unit best bet UNDER the posted total 
 
Betting the Under with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team that is averaging four or more walks per game and allowed 3 or fewer runs to each of their last two opponents has yielded a 104-52-3 Under record good for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.  
 
From the predictive models, I am expecting both starters, Patrick Sandoval and Tanner Houck, to complete at least 11 innings and for the teams to combine for no more than two multiple run innings. In past home games, the Red Sox are 53-11 Under for 83% winners when meeting these performance measures and in road games, the Angels are 63-12-5 Under for 84% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Cleveland vs Washington 
8-Unit best bet on Cleveland Guardians on the money line 
The preferred strategy is to bet 4-Units on the Run Line –1.5 and 4 units on the money line, but if you can also bet all 8-Units on the money line, but given the price, I would suggest cutting back the amount to 7-Units. 
 
Betting on road money line favorites of –130 or more in a non-divisional matchup and with the favorite having lost four consecutive times to the current host has earned the road team a highly profitable 55-34 record on the Run Line averaging a +110 wager and producing a 31% ROI. Just one losing record season since 2010.  

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat 
8-Unit Best Bet on the Chicago Bulls plus the points. I lik betting this matchup with a 70% bet preflop on the Bulls plus the current points available. Then during the first half of action only, look to add 15% more at 7.5 and 16% more at 9.5 points. 
 
From my predictive models, we are looking for the Bulls to score 111 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers than the Heat. In past games in which the Bulls met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a 17-9 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. When Miami has been home they are 4-20 ATS for 17% when having more turnovers and allowing 111 or more points in games played over the past five seasons.  
 

Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors 
8-Unit best bet on the Bulls plus the 5.5 points 
 
Live In-Game Strategy 
Bet 80% of your 8-Unit betting amount on the Bulls preflop, then add 15% more at 8.5 points preflop and then 5% on the money line if the in=game betting line moves to +10 or higher during the first half of action only.  
 
Situational Betting System 

The following betting system has produced exceptional and consistent results for many seasons sporting a 16-10 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past five seasons Betting on any team that has held their last three opponents to more than 30 points below the opponents’ team total and has win percentage between 40 and 49% in games played in the last 20 games of the season and playoffs.  

Toronto won their last game of the regular season 121-105 over the Milwaukee Bucks, who were resting starters and really had no interest in the game. However, this trend does get my attention knowing that Raptors Nick Nurse is just 19-36 ATS in home games following a double-digit win.  

Player Prop Best Bet 

Tyler Hero Over 29.5 -112 at FanDuel Points, Assists, Rebounds 

Miami vs Philadelphia 
8-Unit best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies using the money line. 
Right on queue, the Phillies offense exploded ironically against the reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara in their 15-3 home win yesterday. The Phillies hav e a pair of aces in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler and they will pitch the next two games in this three-game series.  
 
Also, take a moment and review my article on Rotowire detailing how to be the next few weeks of Phillies action.  
 

Situational Betting Angles 

Betting on home favorites up to and including –155 on the money line in a divisional matchup and not the first game of a series, that are coming off a game priced as a home dog in which they scored at least 5 runs in a single inning and won the game are 43-22 for 66.2% winning bets averaging a –127 wager, making the Dime bettor a profit of $16,125 for a robust 22% ROI. 

Aaron Nola led the league with a remarkable strikeout to walk ratio of 8.10 meaning he recorded more than 8 strikeouts for every free pass he issued on the season. His ERA was 3.25 over 32 starts, but had a 2.58 fielding independent pitching stat. The fact that the FIP is significantly lower than his true ERA reflects an above average of plays, like errors and dropped third strikes, that he had no control over while on the mound. So, he was even better than many of his metrics and I believe he will steadily pitch better over his remaining starts in Aril and start off May in Cy Young-contender form. 

Bet the Phillies. 
 

Carolina Hurricanes vs Nashville Predators 
6-Unit bet on the Hurricanes using the money line, currently –175 
This is an 8-Unit graded bet, but because of the higher than usual money line price, I recommend reducing the amount wagered to your 6-unit amount. 

Betting on winning record road favorites facing a winning record opponent coming off a home win has earned an 84-43 record for 66% winning bets and averaging a –130 bet that has produced a 24% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. 
 

8-UNIT NHL Best Bet Total 
 
JR has endured an NHL 2-8 losing streak over his 10 releases and this is the best time to get on board with this proven 28-year veteran. This NHL 8-Uniy graded best bet is backed by a stellar set of situational angles combining for an 84-43 record and 66% winning bets. Get the best bet and the betting system for just $11.00 

NCAA 2023 Championship Best Bet 
8-Unit Best bet on San Diego State plus the 7.5 points and do believe you will see 8 and 8.5 potentially prior to the tip off.  
LIVE Betting Strategy 
We have reached the final 40 minutes of the NCAA Tournament and two unlikely programs have navigated the March madness maze to reach this distinguished event set to start at 9:20 PM EST at the NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The Aztecs know they can come from behind and were down 14 points in the second half to FAU before rallying for the first-ever buzzer beater shot that was scored with the team trailing and not tied. In the third game of the season, Stanford was up 10 points and the Aztecs won by 12. They were down 13 points to Coastal Carolina before winning by six points. They were down 11 to the College of Charleston in the first round of the Tournament before rallying for a 6-point win. So, I like betting 70% preflop at +7.5 points and then adding 15% at 9.5 points and 15% at 11.5 points during the first half of action only. 
 
Although unlikely prior to the tournament, these two teams are the two best teams right now in the nation by many measures. They both prefer a slow, grinding, and physically tough style of game with UCONN ranking 252nd nationally averaging 66.7 possessions per game and SDST ranking 254th averaging 65.7 possessions per game.  

The Aztecs are the best defensive team in the nation overall and have been incredibly consistent at negating the three-point shot from an opponents’ scoring arsenal. For the season they allowed 26.50% 3-point shooting and were suffocating the best in the nation during the tournament. The Aztecs allowed 41% shooting from beyond the arc in their buzzer-beating win over FDU, who is the only team to have had success from beyond the arc. Prior to that Creighton shot a horrid 11.8%, No.1 seed Alabama shot 11.11%, Furman shot 23%, and College of Charlestown shot 20.83% from beyond the arc. Including FAU, only six teams managed to shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc against the sensational Aztec perimeter defense this season. The Aztecs held 29 opponent s to 35% or lower 3-point shooting of their 38 games played. Tennessee also matched that defensive feat and both teams ranked number 1 in the nation in this category. UCONN ranked third with 28 opponents under 35% shooting from 3-point territory, but based on SOS rankings was against significantly easier foes.  
  Teams playing in the Finals that have the lower defensive 3-point shooting percentage are 4-1 ATS for 80%. Teams like the Aztecs that three of their five previous opponents led by three or more points are 8-4 ATS for 67% in the Championship game. The Aztecs are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe that makes 8 or more 3-point shot attempts per game this season.  
 
1-UNIT Player Props 
Darrion Trammell Under 9.5 points 

Andre Jackson Under 7.5 points 
Matt Bradley Over 12.5 points 
 

MLB 
Minnesota vs Miami 
8-Unit best bet on Minnesota using the money line 
 
Betting on teams fresh off a three-game series sweep over a divisional rival and now playing an opponent from the other league (inter-league) has gone 36-10 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons. It is on a 14-3 run over the past three seasons.