25* graded play on the NY Rangers as they take on St. Louis in NHL action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that New York will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. St. Louis is 0-4 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. The NY Rangers are 76-36 ATS (+25.3 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons and they are 36-12 ATS (+22.5 Units) against poor offensive teams - scoring under 2.55 goals/game over the last 3 seasons. Blues are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 home games. Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Rangers are 19-7 in their last 26 Tuesday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Blues have been held to one goal in five of their last six games, and they're running into a hot offensive team at MSG tonight. New York's offense is sizzling and they're playing outstanding hockey at home in the early going. The Blues will look to muck it up and slow the hosts down tonight, but I'd rather have the team that's finishing off their plays as opposed to one that's mired in a scoring slump. Take the New York Rangers.

25* graded play on the Chicago Bears as they take on the Minnesota Vikings in MNF action  set to start at 8:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-7 mark good for 86% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play against struggling teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are good passing teams (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) and is now facing an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Bears are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this game it clearly shows strong reasons to get on board the Bears tonight.

25* graded play on Denver as they take on Toronto in NBA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will lose this game by less than 6 points  and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons; 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Malone is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996. Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Toronto. Nuggets are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Kyle Lowry is having some trouble finding his form with an 8-of-29 effort in the first two games this season and only four assists and six turnovers on Friday at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The bright spot for the Nuggets is the young frontcourt pairing of 22-year-old Jusuf Nurkic and 21-year-old Nikola Jokic. Nurkic took the lead with 23 points and nine rebounds in the opener and Jokic stepped up to deliver 23 points and 17 boards on Saturday. Take Denver Nuggets.

50* graded play on Dallas as they take on Philadelphia in a mammoth NFC showdown set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 164-89 ATS mark good for 65% winners since 1983. Play against any team (PHILADELPHIA) off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles are just 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards; 30-62 ATS (-38.2 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards; Dallas is a stout 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points As the technical point out, the key to this win is the play of the Dallas OL, who have arguably put themselves into the discussion of best all-time. Although, much of the talk entering this game is on the solid play of two rookie QBs, it has been the Eagles defense that has led them to a 4-2 record. However, I do not see this Eagles defensive unit holding up for 60 minutes against the constant ground game pounding. The SIM projects that Dallas will have at least 160 rushing yards and this also control the clock and the pace of play. Also, Zak Prescott will have play action pass play opportunities where he can have a few extra seconds to scan the field. Beasley may ned up being a coverage nightmare for the Eagles, who will be forced to have their LB focused on the run first. This opens up quick hit slant routes in space. Take Dallas.

25* graded play on Green Bay as they take on Atlanta in NFC the action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game this game.   Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1983. Play against home teams (ATLANTA) after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GB is a stout 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points While the Packers’ offense may not be what it once was, Green Bay’s defense continues to impress, especially in the front-seven. First-round pick Kenny Clark is currently fourth in run-stop percentage among 3-4 DEs, veteran Mike Daniels is seventh in pass-rushing productivity among the same group, and former first-round pick Nick Perry is sixth in pass-rushing productivity among 3-4 OLBs. I do believe the GB secondary will disguise coverages involving Julio Jones periodically creating the illusion that Jones is in an ‘under/over’ bracket coverage. I also believe GB will bring pressure more than in past games limiting the time for Ryan to connect with Jones on deep routes. Take Green Bay.

25* graded play on Buffalo as they take on New England in AFC East action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by less than 5 points and have a chance to pull off the upset AGAIN. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-16 since 1983 (4-0 last 5 seasons) good for 73.8% winners and made 27.4 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 33-11 over the last 10 seasons good for 77% winners. Play Against favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East. Bills are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bills are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East. Bills are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Bills will get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus back to sure up their rushing defense their poor performance last week. Buffalo will look to play well over their level in their disappointing loss last week. I believe too much is being made on the Patriots revenge factor in this game. Rex Ryan coached teams have always given Brady a hard fight. The spread is too high and is climbing. Take the Buffalo Bills.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on Carolina in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards over the last 3 seasons; 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 350 yards/game since 1992; 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing over 5.65 yards/play since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arians is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of Arizona. Cardinals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8. Cardinals are 21-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Cardinals are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Panthers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona has the second-best defensive rating in the NFL by holding opponents to 289.6 yards per game. The Cardinals haven't surrendered a touchdown in their last two games. Carolina's offense has cranked out 371.5 yards per game for the fourth-best mark in the league. Panthers left tackle Michael Oher stayed in concussion protocol at the beginning of the week, so he may not play. Carolina hasn't been playing well at all and I don't think a bye week will help them. Take Arizona Cardinals.

25* graded play on Washington as they take on Utah in a critical PAC-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game by more than 14 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-3 ATS for an amazing 89% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (UTAH) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a solid 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Utah is a money losing 21-60 ATS (-45.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Huskies come into this one at 7-0 averaging 43 points per game and only giving up 14. However, the Utes are 7-1 and will be the best team the Huskies have faced this year. Last week UCLA was able to put up a lot of points and exposed the Utah defense. We look for Jake Browning to do more of the same today with plenty of weapons in the skull positions. Browning comes into this game with 26 TD passes and only 2 interceptions. The Huskies also have balance in offense bringing a solid running game averaging 227 yards per game. Washington also can match Utah physically and we don't see Utah keeping pace today and eventually wearing down an the Huskies to control this one and make another statement in the PAC 12. Take the Huskies and lay the points.

50* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 42* play on the line and a 8* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Note that all of them are using the money line and reflect my strong belief that Texas wins SU. Baylor is just 25-79 against the money line (-71.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-13 against the money line (-13.1 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; Texas is 31-3 against the money line (+31.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 30-4 against the money line (+26.4 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Baylor team has not really been tested this year, and this is a game that will show how great of a team that they really are. Also, Texas coach Charlie Strong is on the hot seat so far this season, so this is a perfect game for him to prove he can lead this team to victory. With both teams having a lot to prove, expect this game to be hard-fought and difficult. Texas seems to be doing well offensively this year, and expect a big performance from their running back D’onta Foreman this week. The Baylor defense has given up 200 rushing yards to Rice, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State so far this year, so definitely expect Foreman to have a great game. However, it would not be fair to not mention that Texas’ defense is also having trouble. They have allowed 200 rushing yards per game in 2/3 of the past games they have played, on top of struggling to defend the pass or come up with big turnovers. Despite their defensive struggles, I think Texas will capitalize on offense this week in a shootout with Baylor, and will ultimately emerge victorious.

25* graded play on Georgia as they take on Florida in SEC Cocktail action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Georgia will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-36 mark good for 46% winners and has made 57 units/unit wagered averaging a huge +300 DOG play since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites vs. the money line (FLORIDA) dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Georgia is a solid 18-5 against the money line (+12.4 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Going to the Cocktail Party today and using the Bulldogs of Georgia getting a little over a TD against Florida. Gators have controlled this one lately but we look for another slugfest in this one. Gators come into this one  at 5-1 and look to be headed to the SEC Championship game. The Gators bring a solid Defense into this game only allowing 12 points per game, but the offense has not been anything special. Georgia comes in with a 4-3 record with a strong running game and the best running back on the field with Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was brought here to win these type of games. After getting beat by Vandy at home the defensive minded Smart had two weeks to prepare for this one. Look for a lot of emotion from the Bulldogs today and keep this one a dogfight all day. In a dogfight we want UGA.

25* graded play on Missouri as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Missouri will win this game by at least 9 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is a money losing 44-96 ATS (-61.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 rushing yards per attempt; Missouri is a stout 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they rush for 5.5 to 6 yards per attempt; 105-33 ATS (+68.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 36-10 ATS (+25.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards;

Fundamental Discussion Points Kentucky comes into this game winning 3-of-4 and have covered all four ATS. Missouri has lost 3 straight and lost those games ATS as well. Kentucky’s rushing defense is not good period. Missouri runs the ball a ton. Tigers have gained 613 rushing yards in their last 2 games against Florida and Middle Tenn. State. Kentucky ranks 91st in the nation allowing 207 rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, we see that Kentucky, too, runs the ball and ranks 38th in the nation gaining 202 rushing yards per game. However, the Missouri defense is capable of containing that ground attack and forcing Kentucky to throw the ball to move the chains. Kentucky ranks a terrible 108th averaging 178 passing yards per game. Take the Missouri Tigers.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Purdue in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by at least 20 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 59-25 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on road favorites (PENN ST) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; 108-37 ATS (+67.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points; Purdue is just 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when they allow 400 to 450 total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points. Penn State is coming off an incredible victory against Ohio State last weekend at home, and last week Purdue lost 14-27 to Nebraska. Penn State clearly has the momentum going into this game. Though Penn State offense has been struggling recently, this week they will get reignited against one of the most defenses in the Big Ten, Purdue. Whether it is offensively, defensively, special teams, or coaching, Penn State should win on all fronts. Penn State’s offense will have a field day this Saturday, as Barkley and McSorley will team up against a defense that is allowing on average 441 yards per game. Also, PSU special teams have been excellent recently, and were the reason they were able to upset Ohio State last week. Lastly, last weeks win was definitely huge for Coach Franklin of PSU. Many thought him to be on the hot seat for a while, but this game was huge for building team confidence around him, and this will show throughout the rest of the season.

25* graded play on the Cleveland Indians as they take on the Chicago Cubs in MLB WS action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-78 record good for 48% winners, BUT has made 63 units/unit wagered averaging a +195 DOG play since 1997. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CLEVELAND) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. If we slice this data to include ONLY road dogs the record over the same span becomes 59-62 for 49% winners making 55 units/unit wagered and averages a 197.4 DOG play. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland is a stout 23-11 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Tomlin starts for Cleveland and his team record is a solid 16-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Santana will be playing LF for the Indians in order to keep his big bat in the lineup. You will hear a lot of media noise focused on the Santana playing an unfamiliar position tonight. He is the DH for the Indians and Francona has stated that he hopes MLB comes to their senses and makes a rule change that applies to all MLB teams. Either have a DH or do not have a DH. Santana has played four innings in LF back in 2012 so it I s certainly a risk, but one that I do not see having a direct impact to the outcome of the game. I fully expect, though, to see Francona replace Santana in LF once he gets a multi-run lead. Given the SIM projections that CLV will win this game this always implies that Cleveland will get out to a fast start against Kendricks tonight.

25* graded play on Sacramento as they take on San Antonio in Western Conference action set to start at 10:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Sacramento will lose this game by less than 7 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Kings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Kings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference.

Fundamental Discussion Points Sacramento built a 19-point halftime lead and was never threatened while throttling Phoenix in the opener. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins scored 24 points and small forward Rudy Gay added 22 to provide the offense while Gay had four of the Kings' five blocked shots. I feel this line is way too inflated because of who these teams just played and that the Kings just played last night. As shown above, the Kings are better with no rest and the Spurs are worse with 1 day of rest. Also C Pau Gasol had just two points in 18 minutes against Golden State in his San Antonio debut. Take the Sacramento Kings.

25* graded play on USC as they take on California in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 points or more.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-26 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CALIFORNIA) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has produced a 44-17 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (USC) after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a stout 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 118-58 ATS (+54.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 28-8 ATS (+19.2 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Based on the predictive algorithms, USC is a Top-20 team and is playing extremely well right now. They are riding a strong three game win streak and easily defeated Arizona last week. They also knocked off a ranked Colorado team the week before. Cal’s defense is poor ranking 120th allowing 41.3 PPG and 121st allowing 5.7 rushing yards per game. The matchup advantage for USC is pounding the ball on the ground where they rank 33rd gaining 4.9 yards per rush. They have rushed for 501 yards on 86 carries in their last two wins. This has not only worn down a defensive line, but also opened up play action pass plays where USC’s elite receivers have been in man coverage. The same again tonight.

25* graded play on the LA Lakers as they take on Houston in NBA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Lakers will lose this game by less than 5 and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 124-181 ATS (-75.1 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game since 1996. Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Rockets are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 Wednesday games. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific. Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Fundamental Discussion Points  Los Angeles added veterans in center Timofey Mozgov, forward Luol Deng and point guard Jose Calderon. Second-year point guard D'Angelo Russell (13.2 points) experienced a star-crossed season as a rookie while young power forward Julius Randle (11.3 points, 10.2 rebounds) displayed that he's ready to take on a bigger role. For the Lakers it's no longer the Kobe show and they can get to play ball. Take LA Lakers with the points.

25* graded play on Washington as they take on Edmonton in NHL action set to start at 9:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this match.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 95-39 mark good for 71% winners and has made 41 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play against an underdog against the money line (EDMONTON) well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season. 

 The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a stout 12-3 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Edmonton if off to a very impressive 5-1 start recording 10 points and is a far cry from their fourth place finish in the Pacific Division last year. They are a young team that is a work in progress for this season and I do not see them competing for a playoff berth in the highly competitive Western Conference. Washington scored 120 points with an amazing 56-18-8 record winning the Metropolitan Division last season. Washington is very experienced led by Alex Ovechkin. The league's leading goal scorer over the past four seasons had 50 last year and at 31 is still counted on to be the Capitals' biggest producer. He has All-Star centers Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov to play with, and should continue his career-long streak of scoring 30-plus goals. Washington is the better team.

25* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Oklahoma City in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Philly will lose this game by less than 7 points and have a small chance to pull off the upset. 

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Philly is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons and they are 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Thunder are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic. Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 76ers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest. 76ers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. Western Conference. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Sixers have surprised the betting public over the past few years with how close other teams let them play and by how well they play despite tanking. They always fight hard as a team. Take Philadelphia 76ers.

25* graded play on New Orleans as they take on Denver in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that New Orleans will win this game by more than 5 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New Orleans is 41-20 ATS (+19.0 Units) when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Pelicans won the last two meetings after the Nuggets won five of the previous six encounters. Even with an injured roster, the Pelicans can come out on top, as they are still favored in this matchup. Take New Orleans Pelicans.

25* graded play on San Antonio as they take on the Golden State Warriors in NBA action set to start at 10:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Spurs will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a nice shot at upsetting the Warriors on opening night. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-27 over the last 5 seasons good for 68.2% winners and made 28.3 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - horrible foul drawing team from last season - attempted less than 21 free throws/game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Antonio is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Tuesday games. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Just a few years back a high prize free agent joined a team and they didn't mesh well until the end of the season (Cavs). I believe the same will happen with Durant joining the Warriors this season especially when it comes to against the spread. San Antonio is always a good team and likes to play close with Golden State. Take San Antonio Spurs.

25* graded play on Vancouver as they take on Ottawa in NHL action set to start at 10:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vancouver will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vancouver is 21-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. Senators are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Senators are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Canucks are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Canucks are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. Canucks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Atlantic. Canucks are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Senators are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings. Senators are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Vancouver. Take Vancouver Canucks.

25* graded play on Winnipeg as they take on Dallas in Central Division action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Winnipeg will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Winnipeg is 11-5 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. Jets are 5-2 in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Jets are 13-6 in their last 19 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. Stars are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Stars are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Take Winnipeg Jets.

25* graded play on Cleveland as they take on the Chicago Cubs in World Series action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game and take the championship.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-16 since 1997 good for 70.9% winners and made 24.7 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - average AL offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA 3.70 or less), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. Another proven system supports this play posting a 59-30 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.3% winners and made 24.7 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team (62% or higher) playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Indians are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass. Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games. Indians are 10-1 in their last 11 overall. Indians are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a win. Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 playoff games. Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Kluber has an ERA of 1.17 and a WHIP of 0.522 when starting against the Cubs. Andrew Miller was ALCS MVP and is proving his worth in the playoffs with 21 strikeouts and five hits allowed in 11 2/3 scoreless innings over six games - in each of which he recorded at least four outs. The ALCS went much better for the Indians than the NLCS did for the Cubs taking 2 more games to close out. So far in the playoffs Cleveland has a 1.77 ERA, .208 average against, and 81 strikeouts pitching, while the Cubs have a 2.93 ERA, .222 average against, and 10 less strikeouts despite playing more games. Some may believe in the Cubs' curse to say that's why they had to take 6 games in the championship series to even get here. Take Cleveland Indians.

25* graded play on Toronto as they take on Tampa Bay in Atlantic Division action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 24-10 ATS (+37.4 Units) when they allow 2 or less goals over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 20-35 ATS (-23.9 Units) against terrible starting goalies - saving less than 88% of shots against since 1996 and they are 18-25 ATS (-16.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons. Lightning are 20-49 in their last 69 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Maple Leafs are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings head-to-head. Take Toronto Maple Leafs.

50* graded play on Houston as they take on Denver in MNF action set to start at 8:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Houston will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 mark based on the money line good for 82% winners and has made 22.3 units/unit wagered since 2005. Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is a solid 34-10 ATS (+23.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points. Denver is a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The media is making far too much of the return of Osweiler and how GM Elway has had this game circled. Denver's C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Houston gains 4.1 yards per rush ranking 7 teams higher than Denver, while Denver is known for their defense they rank only 16th in allowing opponents yards per rush of 4.0. Houston also gets called by less penalties as they're ranked 4th in both penalties per game and per play. Denver is ranked 23rd and 25th respectively in those categories. Take Houston Texans to win.

25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Arizona in NFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET Sunday. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Seattle is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons and they are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Arizona is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Arians is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 9 points or less last game as the coach of Arizona. Carroll is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of Seattle. Seattle is 2-0 against the spread at Arizona over the last 3 seasons. Seattle is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against the division. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 7. Cardinals are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Seattle owns the league's No. 1 defense and is third in points (15.6) and rushing yards (74.6) allowed. Quarterback Russell Wilson, who has a passer rating of at least 121.9 in three of the last four meetings with the Cardinals, guided Seattle to a 36-6 rout at Arizona in the regular-season finale in January.  We like the Seahawks in this matchup, despite Palmer being back, we think Arizona still has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, a unit which led the league in scoring last year. Seahawks DE Cliff Avril has four sacks and a forced fumble in the last four games versus Arizona. Take Seattle Seahawks with the points.

25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points.

How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins.

25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points.

How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins.

25* graded play on the Oakland Raiders as they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-10 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) with a poor first half defense allowing 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 41-19 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Oakland comes into this game tied atop the division with the defending Super Bowl champions and takes on a Jacksonville team who has struggled this year. Black Jack Del Rio returns to Jacksonville with a playoff caliber team. Derek Carr has built on what he was able to last season and the Raiders have been able to move the ball and score on everyone so far this year. Blake Bortles and the Jaguar offense have struggled at times this year and really struggle in the running game. This would be the week to get going as the Raider defense has struggled this year. In Oakland’s 3 previous early start games this year the Raiders pulled out the victories. We see this game to be similar as Del Rio comes back to town to beat his old team today.

25* graded play on the Los Angeles Rams as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 9:30 AM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will lose this game by less than 2 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Rams are 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992. Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC. Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Rams' passing attack was incredible against the Lions, and quarterback Case Keenum had a career day. Keenum threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns, and at one point he completed 19 straight passes.The Rams will keep that formula going against a Giants passing defense that is ranked 22nd in the NFL and gives up an average of 266.8 yards per game. New York S Nat Behre (concussion) had to be removed from practice on Wednesday and remains in the league's protocol. OBJ suffered a hip pointer in the win over the Ravens and was able to return to the game, but he has been receiving treatment for the injury this week and sat out practice on Wednesday. Eli is a different quarterback when away from home. Take LA Rams with the points.

25* graded play on Arizona State as they take on California in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game and may win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 ATS good for 75% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) that is a struggling team outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ASU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when their defense allows 400 or more net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points For this game we head out to the desert in Tempe, Arizona at Sun Devil Stadium where the Washington State Cougars take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Arizona St. comes into this game at 5-2 on the season and 4-0 at home where they average 46.5 points per game and average 463 yards of offense in those games. Meanwhile Washington St. sits at 4-2 but have won their last 4 games after starting the season 0-2. Washington St. averages 542 passing Yards per game and the Arizona State defense gives up an average of 385 yards through the air each week. We look for Washington St. to air the ball out on offense and score some points but Arizona State loves to play in front of their home crowd and they too can score some points. Look for this to be a more offensive type game with a decent amount of points being scored but Arizona St. should keep it close at home. Take Arizona State at home with the points.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on the Chicago Cubs in NLCS action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game and take the entire series.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 93-38 over the last 5 seasons good for 71% winners and made 42 units/unit wagered. Play against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team (62% or more) playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cubs are 5-12 (-10.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season and are 187-206 (-68.0 Units) against the money line in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span since 1997. Dodgers are 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Maddon is 22-33 (-19.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games in all games he has managed since 1997. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 Saturday games. Dodgers are 12-5 in their last 17 games following a loss. Dodgers are 17-8 in their last 25 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Cubs are 3-9 in their last 12 League Championship games. Cubs are 2-6 in their last 8 Saturday games. Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 League Championship home games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw is 6-3 when starting against the Cubs with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 0.972. Kershaw allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings to earn the win in Game 2 at Wrigley Field. Dodgers 3B Justin Turner has reached base safely in 15 straight postseason games. Chicago RF Jason Heyward is batting .071 in the postseason, including 1-for-16 in the NLCS. Los Angeles committed five errors, leading to five unearned runs, in the last two games. I have confidence they've shored that up. Take LA Dodgers.

50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Utah in PAC-12 action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 10 points. The 50* play is the strongest possible play identified by the algorthims. Applying many machine learning and predictive modeling tools (Beyasian probabilities) to 30-years of historical results provide the most optimal forward looking predictive tools available right now. Unlike traditional probability, which uses a frequency to try to estimate probability, Bayesian probability is generally expressed as a percentage. In its most basic form, it is the measure of confidence, or belief, that a person holds in a proposition. Using Bayesian probability allows a researcher to judge the amount of confidence that they have in a particular result. As you readily see, these technologies are useful in many industries including insurance, banking, investment banking, human clinical trial analyses, biochemical based research, and of course sports predictive modeling.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah has been a money losing 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; UCLA is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play. Betting consensus figures also show a rather rare situation where the public has reached ‘red flag’ levels on the DOG. As we know, the public loves betting the favorites, so when betting levels exceed 70% on a dog it only adds more support to the Algorithm projections. 71% of all best have been on Utah. However, the line has moved from UCLA -6 to UCLA -7 at most of the major books I monitor. This too is a positive, since it reflects the large ‘smart money’ is more than offsetting the public’s irrational exuberance for Utah.

Fundamental Discussion Points  UCLA has a very strong passing game that has not been held in check in any game this season. Utah has been pounded by the ground game in their last two games and I believe there will be ample running room for the Bruin RB. Although, not necessary, if UCLA does establish the run early in this game, it will put the Utah secondary in man coverage on the perimeter and will be greatly mismatched against faster, quicker, and bigger playmakers.

25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas A&M will lose this game by fewer than 17 points and has an outside shot a major upset of No. 1 Alabama.   If you get access to a money line, then simply add a 3* amount to the 25* play using the line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams posting win percentages >= 80% on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a money burning 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Texas A&M +18 versus Alabama

The Aggies head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Aggies come into this game at 6-0 with quality wins over Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Texas A&M comes into this game averaging 274 rushing yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry. This powerful rushing game includes Trayveon Williams (5 TD’s) and also a very versatile QB in Trevor Knight who has 9 rushing touchdowns this season. Look for A&M’s power rushing to slow down this game and keep their defense off the field and well rested to match up against that Alabama offense that averages just over 500 yards of offense per game. Playing Alabama at home is never a small task but look for Texas A&M to give it all they got for this big SEC matchup in Tuscaloosa and for them to keep it close and give Alabama a fight at home. Take Texas A&M with the points.

25* graded play on Iowa as they take on Wisconsin in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 mark good for 90% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) off 2 covers where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 20-7 against the money line (+16.1 Units) in home games when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-4 against the money line (+18.2 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Wisconsin Badgers take a trip to Iowa City, Iowa this weekend to take on the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa sits at 5-2 on the year and 3-1 in conference play just one game behind Nebraska in the Big Ten West Division. We look for this to be a lower scoring affair so look for turnovers and field position to play a big part in this game. Wisconsin has turned the ball over 11 times this year while Iowa has only turned it over 5 times. Wisconsin QB’s have thrown 7 touchdowns this year but have thrown 8 interceptions and in a Conference game like this, turnovers must be at a minimum. Look for Iowa’s offense to move the ball steadily with running back Akrum Wadley who averages 7.4 yards per carry and also in the air with QB C.J. Beathard who has a 60% completion percentage and 11 touchdowns this year. The Hawkeyes have a great shot at winning this game at home against 10th ranked Wisconsin. Take Iowa with the points.

25* graded play on Oregon as they take on California in PAC-12 the action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oregon will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs (OREGON) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. Here is a money line system that has produced an amazing 100-30 mark good for 77% winners and has made 82 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on a road team vs. the money line (OREGON) excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a team with a terrible rushing defense (>=4.8 YPR), in conference games.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oregon is a solid 41-14 ATS (+25.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 50-14 ATS (+34.6 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yard; Cal has been a horrid 3-24 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 42 to 48 points; 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards.

25* graded play on BYU as they take on Boise State in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid opportunity to win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BOISE ST) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 4-2 against the spread versus Boise State since 1992. Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Cougars are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. MWC. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Boise State’s last 3 wins have not been as dominant as one would have thought and the Broncos are only 2-4 ATS on the season. On the other hand, BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.  BYU has had close games this year and also Boise has not been a good covering team. BYU's Jamaal Williams is ranked 4th in the nation with 134 yards a game rushing. Senior quarterback Taysom Hill threw three touchdown passes in Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State and has accounted for 13 touchdowns (nine passing, four rushing) this season. Senior running back Jamaal Williams (3,468) became the school's all-time rushing list in the Mississippi State contest - surpassing Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09) - and has rushed for 942 yards (second-most nationally) and 10 touchdowns this season. Nacua, a senior, is tied for the national lead with five interceptions and has 13 in his career while sophomore linebacker Francis Bernard (48 tackles) racked up a career-best 16 tackles against the Bulldogs.

25* graded play on Virginia tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that V-Tech will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. V-Tech is a solid 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards. Miami has been a money burning 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive ‘unders’; 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Miami's Brad Kaaya-led offense has struggled (32 points in the losses) with the line shouldering much of the blame. Coach Justin Fuente's defense was ranked No. 3 nationally in yards allowed per game before Syracuse totaled 561 yards, ran 100 offensive plays and scored on its final two possessions. Evans (ACC-best 170.7 QB rating, 17 touchdown passes, 319 yards rushing) is the third straight quarterback Miami faces who is as dangerous as a runner as he is passer, with the previous two having success both ways against the Hurricanes. VT's Travon McMillian posted 16 carries, 99 yards, averaging 6.2 YPC in the last Miami game and Isaiah Ford is doing well posting 32 catches and five TDs. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on the Chicago Cubs in NLCS Game 3 action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game. There has been the emergence of alternate and -2 ½ Run Lines this season and they will offer added opportunity for many of our releases. For this play consider playing a 20* amount on the money line and a 5* play using the alternate –1 ½ run line, which you will see in the +175 range for the Dodgers lined at -1 1/2.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 105-61 over the last 5 seasons good for 63.3% winners and made 41.5 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team (62% or more) playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dodgers are 36-15 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 Tuesday games. Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cubs are 1-4 in Arrieta's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Cubs are 1-8 in their last 9 League Championship games. Arrieta's team's record is 1-3 (-3.4 units) when starting against the Dodgers.

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw was amazing in Game 2 and now the Dodgers enter this game with the bullpen completely rested with the exception of Jansen. We anticipate that Hill will go 5 innings and then the bullpen will be engaged. Dodgers pen posted a 2.50 ERA with a 1.018 WHIP in 83 games spanning 302 2/3 innings of work. This is not to say Hill will not pitch longer than 5 innings. After all, he did post a skimpy 2.38 ERA with a 1.048 WHIP in 22 starts spanning 117 2/3 innings with an impressive 142 K’s.

25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on the Arizona Cardinals in NFL MNF action set to start at 8:30 PM ET.

How to Play this Game SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Jets will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 2005. Play on road teams in October (NY JETS) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Jets are a solid 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards; 62-25 ATS (+34.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. Arizona is a poor 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Palmer is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. Jets WR Brandon Marshall has gone over 100 yards in seven of his last 11 games. Jets won the previous matchup back in 2012. The Jets can make things difficult for the Cardinals with their 2nd best rush defense in the NFL and Revis most likely coming back to help on the pass defense. Take NY Jets with the points.

25* graded play on Cleveland Indians as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 of the ALCS set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-15 mark good for 76% winners and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on any team (CLEVELAND) after 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland is 20-9 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on this season; 19-4 (+15.6 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season; 18-6 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games this season. Stroman’s team record is a money burning 8-14 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a win. Indians are 8-0 in their last 8 overall. Indians are 6-1 in Bauer's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Bauer enjoyed one of his best starts against Toronto on Aug. 19, when he allowed two runs in eight innings and struck out a career-high 13. Stroman, who held Baltimore to two runs and four hits over six innings in his ALDS start, has not earned a victory since Aug. 14.  Miller was the star of the Indians' AL Division Series sweep of Boston as he recorded seven strikeouts in four scoreless innings and was even better in the first two games of the ALCS, fanning 10 batters and yielding one hit in 3 2/3 scoreless frames of relief. It seems Toronto got all their hits and runs in the ALDS, and will have a tough time scoring in this series. Take Cleveland Indians.

25* graded play on Kansas City as they take on Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas City will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 over the last 10 seasons good for 81.8% winners! Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) - in conference games, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Another proven system supports this play posting a 28-9 over the last 10 seasons good for 75.7% winners. Play On road teams (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game since 1992 and they are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. Oakland is a poor 23-58 ATS (-40.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing under 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 20-47 ATS (-31.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game since 1992; 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992; 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Oakland. Road team is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are looking to back Andy Reid coming off a bye week and take the Chiefs in this one. Big Red has been a money maker in this role. The Raiders have a big time offense and Derek Carr is having a big year, but the Defense has been giving up 27 points per game. Recent history shows the Raiders have burned the money in a favorite role at home. Oakland looks to be without their best running back again this week. The Chiefs look to have versatile back Jamal Charles back in full force and this will also be a big lift to the Kansas City Offense. Alex Smith typically stays away from turnovers and runs the system well for the Chiefs and we look for the offense to have an easier time against the Oakland Defense. KC won at Oakland by 14 last year and then by 7 at home. We look for more of the same today. Take KC in this one.

50* graded play on the UNDER on Cincinnati versus New England in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER 44 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 103-54 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.6% winners and made a big 43.6 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing under 90 rushing yards/game since 1992; 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging more than 375 yards/game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 road games. Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points With both teams averaging around 20 points per game and the defenses giving up 22 and 14 points per game, we feel the under is the play in this one. The Bengals running game has struggled this year and the Patriots are not much better when they line up and come at you. Both teams have good pass defenses and the defenses are well coached. Bengals road games have been covering at a 66% rate lately and we feel this total is a little inflated with Tom Brady returning and coming off a big game against the Cleveland Browns last week. We feel it will be a little tougher to move the ball this week and the kickers will get a lot of action. Take the Under.

25* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Tennessee in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cleveland will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Browns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Browns have beaten the Titans in each of the last two seasons. Tennessee entered this season having gone 1-7 SU at home in both 2015 and 2014, beating only the Jags each year. Cleveland RB Isaiah Crowell ranks third in the AFC with 416 rushing yards and has six rushing TDs in his past nine games. He is also outpacing the Titan's Murray at 5.6 ypc to 5.0 ypc respectively. Tennessee is ranked 24th in the NFL in points per game (18.4) while Cleveland is 29th at 17.4. Knowing that, the spread seems way to high. Take the Browns with points.

25* graded play on the UNDER on Ohio State versus Wisconsin in BIG 10 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER 40 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-15 over the last 5 seasons good for 72.7% winners. Play Under - Any team against the total (WISCONSIN) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and they are 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992. Ohio State is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) off a home win over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. 8 of 9 games in this series played at Wisconsin have gone UNDER the total since 1992. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Wisconsin has had two weeks since their last game (10/1) and will be playing on 10/15, they will definitely be well rested and ready to take on OSU. I believe this game will fall under the total of 44 points for 3 reasons. First off, OSU’s defense is incredibly strong, rated at 92.6% efficiency, matched up against an average Wisconsin offense with an efficiency of 49.4%. Furthermore, another incredible defense in Wisconsin, at 92.1%, against an above average offense in Ohio State with an efficiency rating of 72.2%, will limit points in this game. Lastly, the OSU offense has not been tested this season, with the exception of Oklahoma; with past competitors including Bowling Green, Tulsa, Rutgers, and Indiana, the OSU offense has not really played a defense on the same caliber as Wisconsin. Turnovers will be key in this game, as Wisconsin will likely need to capitalize on all opportunities they will get. Barrett (OSU) , a running oriented QB, is not the type of QB to defeat Wisconsin and it all could come down to a turnover.

25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on Arkansas in SEC West action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game by more than 9 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-16 over the last 10 seasons good for 74.6% winners. Play against home underdogs (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ole Miss is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992; 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Freeze is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of Ole Miss and he is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in the first half of the season as their coach. Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Rebels are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Fundamental Discussion Points With Ole Miss coming off of a bye week, and Arkansas coming off of a tough loss to Alabama 49-30, I predict that Ole Miss will win this week in SEC West action. Arkansas struggled last week, even though it appeared to be a close game; Arkansas’ QB Allen had 3 interceptions last week and they were only able to gain 73 yards rushing. Look for Chad Kelly (66% completion, 1,596 yards, 13 TDs, 4 interceptions) to hit his top two targets this week: Evan Engram (30 receptions for 479 yards, 4 TDs) and Damore’ea Stringfellow (20 passes for 305 yards, 2 TDs). Also, Ole Miss has a much stronger offensive and defensive efficiency rating, at 83.8 and 68.5, respectively. In comparison, Arkansas has a 60.6 and 51.1 efficiency rating, for offense and defense, respectively. Chad Kelly will have another stellar performance this week, and Ole Miss defense will step up to shut down Arkansas. Take Ole Miss.

25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Virginia Tech in ACC action set to start at 3:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by less than 15 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a BIG 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse at home is 5-1 against the spread versus VT since 1992. Hokies are 6-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Hokies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Orange are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Hokies have played well after the collapse in Bristol earlier this year and got a little help from the weather last week. Va-Tech has a big game with Miami on deck next week and get Syracuse at the dome, where they can use their speed and come up with big plays. The Orangemen have moved the ball against everyone this year and we look for more of the same today. Syracuse Quarterback Eric Dungey has completed 64.3 % on his passes this year and we look for the Cuse offense to put up enough points today to cover this big number.

35* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by less than 9.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a huge 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Volunteers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tennessee is 2-0 against the spread versus Alabama over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Tennessee junior running back Alvin Kamara, who redshirted at Alabama in 2013 before transferring, figures to see the football a lot again after setting a school record with 312 all-purpose yards (127 rushing, 161 receiving, 24 returns) against Texas A&M. The terrific performance from Kamara (292 rushing yards, team-best 20 receptions) came with junior leading rusher Jalen Hurd (407 yards) sidelined with undisclosed injuries and coach Butch Jones said that Hurd will play versus Alabama. Tennesse is a tough football team and loves to keep their games close with Alabama. Take Tennessee Volunteers.

25* graded play on UNC as they take on Miami (FL) in ACC Coastal action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-42 since 1992 good for 66.9% winners and made 38.8 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 7-5 against the spread versus Miami since 1992. Miami is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. Richt is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Mitch Trubisky and the Tar Heel offense were rolling until Hurricane Matthew came into town last week and shut the offense down. Until last week the Tar Heels were close in all big games this year and we look for more of the same today. The loser of this game will most likely be eliminated from winning the Coastal Division and making it to the ACC Championship Game. UNC put up 35 points in Tallahassee earlier this year and won on a last second field goal and we look for the offense to move the ball today. The Hurricanes are off a tough loss to Florida State last week and are now in a must win game this week. Brad Kaaya is having a solid season for the Canes but got a little banged up last week. We look for this one to be close throughout and like Carolina with the points.

25* graded play on the OVER on W Kentucky and Middle Tennessee in Conference USA action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  this game will go over 77 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. W Kentucky is 21-7 OVER (+13.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Stockstill is 20-9 OVER (+10.1 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of Middle Tennessee and he is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) off a double digit road win as the coach of MT State. 5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER the total since 1992. Over is 5-1 in Hilltoppers' last 6 games in October. Over is 8-2 in Hilltoppers' last 10 games following a ATS loss. Over is 12-3-1 in Blue Raiders last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points This is a big number in this game, but it comes with reason, Both offenses have played well all year and are averaging 37 points a game and that comes with playing some Big Power 5 Schools, The last 2 years The Hilltoppers hit 50 points against the Blue Raiders. Both Quarterbacks have played well this year and we look for both teams to move the ball with ease and the scoreboard to light up today. Take the Over.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on NC State in ACC Atlantic action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 over the last 10 seasons good for an incredible 83.9% winners. Play on Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (CLEMSON) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a win by 35 or more points since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. NC State is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Doeren is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of NC State. Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense has been in high gear after starting off the season slow. This is a key game for Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division as if the Tigers win this game it would put the Tigers in the Drivers seat to return to the ACC Championship Game. The Clemson offense has been averaging 47 points a game at home this year and the defense has been solid against everyone not named Lamar Jackson. The Wolfpack offense has been good this year, but the defense has been average, take away help from Hurricane Matthew last week and the stop troops are nothing to get excited about and we don't see them slowing Deshaun Watson down today. Clemson won by 15 on the road last year and shut out State 41-0 in the last trip to Clemson. The Tigers get a bye next week and 2 weeks to prepare for their big trip to Tallahassee. We look for Deshaun Watson to have another big day and get back in the Heisman race, and the offense to keep rolling and the Defense to continue to play well again. Take the Tigers and lay the points.

25* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on BYU in FBS action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miss. State will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-20 over the last 5 seasons good for 67.2% winners. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992. MSST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Mississippi State and BYU split their previous meetings in 2001 and 2002, with the road team winning each time. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen went 2-0 against the Cougars while serving as Utah's quarterback coach in 2003-04. MSST has a higher completion percentage per game (60.24%) and allow a  lower completion percentage than BYU. In fact, the Cougars rank a lowly 128th in the country allowing 69.79% completions against them. In almost all other categories these teams are pretty neck and neck. Look for the Bulldogs to throw and complete a bit more to press this advantage. Take Mississippi State.

25* graded play on the UNDER in Denver at San Diego action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this total score will be UNDER 42 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 82.1% winners and made 24.3 units/unit wagered. Play Under any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season.  Another proven system supports this play posting a 32-10 over the last 5 season good for 76.2% winners and made 21 units/unit wagered. Play Under home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992; 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 46-21 UNDER (+22.9 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game since 1992; 26-8 UNDER (+17.2 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Diego.

Fundamental Discussion Points Offenses in Thursday games played on the short week since the start of the 2012 season have averaged only 3.89 TDs per game compared to the regular games average of 4.57 TDs per game. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense, San Diego. Melvin Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6. We cannot forget that Denver's defense are still man-eating monsters. Take the UNDER in the total.

50* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on Washington in NLDS action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-27 over the last 5 seasons good for 59.7% winners and made 29.1 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (LA DODGERS) - excellent fielding team - averaging under 0.5 errors/game on the season, playing on Thursday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is 6-15 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 34-44 (-18.3 Units) against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging under 0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 19-23 (-16.3 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games this season; 82-118 (-49.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a one run loss since 1997. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Dodgers are 17-7 in their last 24 vs. National League East. Dodgers are 18-8 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Scherzer's team's record is 2-7 (-4.8 units) when starting against the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 7-3 (+4.2 Units) against Washington this season and they are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings. The Dodgers continue to have their hot bullpen pitch well. Rich Hill got a wake-up call in his last outing he's in the playoffs and should return to his earlier form. Take Los Angeles Dodgers.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will lose this game by fewer than four points and also has a great shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games. Here is a money line system that underscores the vey possibility of a TB win tonight. It has gone 22-5 for 82% winners since 2005. Play against home teams using the money line (CAROLINA) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, when playing on Monday night. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TB is a solid 61-26 ATS (+32.4 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina has issues on both sides of the ball, scoring only 10 points in a Week 3 home loss to Minnesota before its defense was shredded for 48 points in last week's drubbing at Atlanta. Cam Newton will be out, which significantly hurts the Panthers' chances. Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson had 10 catches for 147 yards and a score the last time he faced Carolina. Tampa Bay's defense allows less yards per play, a lower pass completion percentage, and are 8th (to Carolina's 20th) in opponent's 3rd down conversion percentage. With the NFL MVP, the Panthers went 1-2, without him, I see the TB having a solid chance. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

25* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Green Bay Packers in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a strong opportunity to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on road teams (NY GIANTS) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Giants are a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when they allow 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt; 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games when both teams score 20 or more points; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 to 1 yard/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Rogers has not played well this year and his team has been out-statted in all three games. They are coming off the BYE, but this means little when we gather up all of the data from previous years in this situation. Key is that Rogers does not have the personnel to stretch the field against the Giants defense and if he is unable to post better than 6 yards per pass attempt, his team’s chances of winning the game are reduced significantly.

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on Dallas in NFL action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-12 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2010. Play on road teams (CINCINNATI) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=7.3 PYA, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons; Dallas is just 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games when they allow 350 to 400 total yards; 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Dallas is 3-1, but have played an easy schedule, especially when compared to who Cincinnati has played (at Jets, @ Pittsburgh, Denver, and Miami). Bengals rushing defense has been extremely good and they will be able to contain the strong Dallas attack today. This forces 3rd and long situations for a rookie QB to execute and that is not a something I see being a good situation for Dallas.

35* graded play on Oregon State as they take on California in a PAC-12 Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at posting the major upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 30* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I also think simply adding a 3* play using the money line to the 35* wager using the line is a solid investment as well.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is just 38-97 ATS (-68.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents; OSU is a rock solid 46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points After sending 21 seasons crunching numbers to create metrics, there is one dominant theme in many college football games and it pivots around the number 28. Many teams success or failure surrounds the number 28 and it can be if they score 28 or more or allow 28 or less points. In this game we have both in that CAL is horrible when allowing 28 points and OSU has been largely successful when scoring 28 or more. There is an 89% probability that OSU will score more than 28 points in this game. This game will be a PAC-12 shootout with a posted total of 71 points. This is NOT a recommendation for the ‘OVER” at all, but fact is that the matchups clearly show this will not be a defensive struggle focused on field position. This all favors OSU to compete for four quarters and keep this game to within 1 score going into the final 7:30 of the game.

Oregon State may have a weak defense, but Cal’s is even weaker based on a large percentage of the metrics calculated. I also like that OSU does not make mental mistakes as reflected in penalties/game where Cal does exhibit far more mental mistakes. I don’t think teams truly get caught looking ahead as many times as the media will want you to expect. However, Cal does have a big test coming up against Oregon in 2 weeks. So, the fact that Oregon is next with a BYE week looming could create coaching nightmares for the Cal staff. Take Oregon State.

25* graded play on as they take on the action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 mark ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) with a struggling defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.

Fundamental Discussion PointsFSU is definitely not off to the start they had hoped, losing the last two games to end up at 3-2. FSU desperately needs to bounce back this game and they will do that with the help of their offensive line giving way to an impressive day for both Dalvin Cook (FSU RB) andDeondre Francois (FSU QB). Miami may have started the season at 4-0 but they have not truly been tested by a high-powered offense yet; this week, Miami has to face their first offense with true athleticism and speed. FSU’s offense is averaging 508.8 yards per game and has a fairly balanced offensive scheme. FSU’s offensive efficiency rating is an 85.7 (out of 100), ranking fifth in the nation at the moment. Miami has not faced an offense anywhere near this, with their last opponents having efficiency ratings of 24.2 (FAU), 50.5 (Georgia Tech), and 51 (Appalachian State).

Due to the untested defense of Miami, and the impressive offense of FSU, I predict FSU will pull off this shootout victory.

25* graded play on NC State as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by more than 5 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Kelly is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of Notre Dame. Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Wolfpack are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points N.C. State should be able to keep pace offensively behind quarterback Ryan Finley, who is completing 72.4 percent of his passes and has thrown for nine TDs without an interception. Finley benefits from a balanced attack that is averaging 208 yards on the ground and has totaled 12 rushing TDs, led by senior running back Matthew Dayes (437 yards, three TDs). NC State won the last meeting very easily 28-6 and are significantly ahead of ND in all the metrics. Notre Dame is a young and 'improving' team this year. Take NC State Wolfpack.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is 35-89 ATS (-62.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Penn State is 107-37 ATS (+66.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Terrapins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Terps will have their hands full with Lions signal-caller Trace McSorley, who totaled 408 yards of total offense - the third highest single-game total in school history – as Penn State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit last week to defeat Minnesota 29-26 in overtime. McSorley (58.9 completion percentage, six TDs, three interceptions) leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1,284) and frequently targets wideouts Chris Godwin (23 catches, 325 yards), DaeSean Hamilton (16, 169) and DeAndre Thompkins (14, 237). Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley has 380 yards rushing this season. Penn State junior kicker Tyler Davis converted three field goals against Minnesota to match a career high and move his consecutive field goals streak to 17, breaking the school record of 15 held by Sam Ficken. Penn State coach James Franklin was the offensive coordinator at Maryland from 2008-10 and its wide receivers coach from 2000-04. Take Penn State Nittany Lions and the points.

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in BIG 12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by less than 20 points..

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992. Patterson is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of TCU and he is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU's shaky defense has allowed more than 40 points on three occasions this season. Willis has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 374 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and Beaty said he has been more efficient in recent games than Cozart (62.6 percent for 581 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions). Sophomore receiver Steven Sims Jr. has performed well with 17 receptions for a team-best 312 yards and five touchdowns, but the running game has struggled with senior Ke'aun Kinner (179 yards) being the most productive back.  The Horned Frogs have struggled to stop opponents on third downs -- ranking in a tie for 98th nationally at 43.5 percent. With the spread so high on a conference opponent on the road, there's a small chance for TCU to cover. Take the many points with Kansas Jayhawks.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on Boston College in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 23.7 units/unit wagered. Play against home underdogs (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with an experienced QB returning as starter. Another proven system supports this play posting a 57-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 70.4% winners and made 30.6 units/unit wagered. Play On road favorites (CLEMSON) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after leading their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons; 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Swinney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Eagles are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points As quarterback Deshaun Watson goes, so go the Tigers, and the junior recorded season highs of 306 yards and five touchdowns in the thriller against Louisville. He also tacked on a season-best 91 rushing yards and has been sacked only twice this season, giving him enough time to consistently find the likes of Mike Williams (25 catches, 373 yards, two TDs) and Ray-Ray McCloud (24, 271, two). Senior linebacker Ben Boulware is coming off a monster performance in which he registered a career-high 18 tackles (three for losses), a fumble recovery and a pass deflection - good enough to earn him ACC Player of the Week honors at his position. Clemson has won seven in a row on the road, one shy of matching the longest run in program history (1978-79). Take Clemson Tigers.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on Washington in NLDS action set to start at 5:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-27 over the last 5 seasons good for 75.9% winners and made 47.6 units/unit wagered. Play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA DODGERS) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (under .400) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP under 1.350), with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Washington is a poor 5-14 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 23-51 (-24.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 15-18 (-11.9 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents this season. Dodgers are 5-1 (+4.8 Units) against the Nationals this season. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 15-5 in their last 20 vs. National League East. Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 58-21 in Kershaw's last 79 starts. Dodgers are 10-1 in Kershaw's last 11 starts vs. Nationals. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff home games. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games. Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw missed more than two months with back issues but finished the season strong by compiling an 0.72 ERA over his last four starts. Kershaw has thrived against Washington with a 10-2 mark and 2.02 ERA in 14 career appearances (13 starts), including a victory June 20 when he gave up one run and six hits over seven innings. Scherzer didn't face the Dodgers this season and is 2-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against Los Angeles. Slumping Washington RF Bryce Harper, who homered once in his final 27 contests, is 1-for-15 with 10 strikeouts against Kershaw. Take the LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Arizona in NFC action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SF will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 mark using the money line good for 75% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team using the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers. This system has gone 17-4 good for 81% winners over the last three seasons.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points In the NFL, parity has never been more present than during the first four weeks of this season and it has caused week-to-week reversals of team performances. SF crushed the Rams in Week only to lose three straight games since while the Rams have won three games straight. Neither did anyone expect Arizona to be 1-3 to start the season. However, Arizona has played below their performance metrics established in 2015 and we do not see them rebounding anytime soon. Drew Stanton will be under center tonight and that creates even greater chemistry issues with receivers and timing routes. On the SF offensive side of the ball, protecting Gabbert with balanced play calling has become coach Kelly's M.O. Running back Carlos Hyde has a league-leading five rushing touchdowns in four games. While the 49ers are 32nd in the NFL in passing, teams have not been able to stack the line to stuff Hyde, and San Francisco is converting 40 percent of third downs. The deep speed of wide receiver Torrey Smith keeps most defenses on their toes, even if his season stats of nine catches, 106 yards, one touchdown don't completely tell that story. I do think you’ll see Smith targeted far more often tonight on shorter underneath routes when he is in man coverage and especially in cover zones and man underneath zone schemes. Getting Smith the ball in space creates opportunities for greater yards gained after the catch. As of this moment, SF is actually the better team.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on Cleveland in  action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 25-18 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 18-6 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of this season; 30-18 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season; 36-19 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. Cleveland is 19-29 (-16.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season and they are a poor 15-21 (-15.8 Units) against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Porcello's team's record is 25-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day. Red Sox are 11-2 in their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Indians are 9-21 in their last 30 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Indians are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. American League East. Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games. Indians are 3-8 in Bauer's last 11 starts vs. American League East.

Fundamental Discussion Points Porcello emerged as an AL Cy Young candidate in the second half and went 8-1 over his final 11 starts, yielding three or fewer earned runs in each of those outings. Porcello earned a home win over Cleveland on May 22 and is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 22 career starts against the Indians. Bauer might have slotted fourth in a fully healthy Cleveland rotation and struggled down the stretch with a 7.20 ERA in his last five starts.  Bauer faced Boston twice this season - once in relief - and allowed a total of six runs and 10 hits in six innings. The Red Sox took the season series 4-2, winning two of three in Cleveland. Indians SS Francisco Lindor batted .233 after Sept. 1 and was 6-for-23 against Boston this season. Take Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on Temple as they take on Memphis in AAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by less than 6 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.6% winners and made 28.6 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis is a poor 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992 and they are 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Temple is 3-0 against the spread versus Memphis since 1992. Rhule is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog as the coach of Temple. Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Memphis struggled in a 20-point loss at Ole Miss last week in its final non-conference tune-up. The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the team committed four turnovers and seven penalties against the Rebels, leaving first-year coach Mike Norvell searching for answers. With a quick turnaround to this Thursday night battle, that could prove problematic. Temple has a high class defense that won't allow anywhere near the Tigers' numbers they posted in their 3 wins. The Owls also have had success, esepecially against the spread, when facing the Tigers. Owls K Austin Jones is 8-for-8 in field goals (long of 45) and 21-for-21 on extra points this season. Take Temple Owls with the points.

25* graded play on the NY Mets as they take on San Francisco in NL Wild Card action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Mets will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 116-51 over the last 5 seasons good for 69.5% winners and made 49.9 units/unit wagered. Play against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 12-19 (-19.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of this season; 10-17 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 5-13 (-12.8 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games this season; 6-19 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons. NY Mets are 37-12 (+23.2 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 2 seasons. Giants are 2-7 in their last 9 games following an off day. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games. Giants are 1-4 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 1-6 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Mets are 5-0 in Syndergaard's last 5 Wednesday starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points There are plenty of worries as far as the Giants are concerned as they really struggled out of the All-Star break. Bumgarner wasn't always sharp down the stretch as he gave up four or more runs in four of his last nine starts and is well aware he'll need to be in top form in the wild-card game.  Syndergaard finished third in the NL in ERA (Bumgarner was fourth) and fourth in strikeouts (Bumgarner was third) while putting together one of the top all-around seasons in the league. He has a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three career starts against the Giants. The Mets won four of the seven regular-season meetings to earn homefield advantage. New York slugged a franchise-record 218 homers, which ranked second in the NL. Take the New York Mets.

25* graded play on Arkansas State as they host Georgia Southern in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game. will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AS is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points An 0-4 team getting just 4 points to a 3-1 team is somewhat rare. The biggest factor in this game is identifying why AS is 0-4. The strength of schedule (SOS) is the reason with AS having played Toledo, @ Auburn, @Utah State, and then losing at home to Western Michigan. That loss is not a good one admittedly, however, this was a huge wakeup call for the team. I am certain messages from coaches have emphasized the need to stop feeling sorry for themselves and that they have a great opportunity to represent the school very well on National TV. The Redwolves were a preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference, which can still happen since this is the first Conference game for the team.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Toronto in AL Wild Card action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-58 over the last 5 seasons good for 56.7% winners and made 51.1 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - team with a poor OBP (under .320) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP under 1.300) -AL, playing on Tuesday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 39-39 (-19.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season; 0-7 (-8.7 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% this season; 21-31 (-19.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games this season. Tillman's team's record is 10-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 16-5 (+11.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season; 10-3 (+9.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season; 22-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season; 12-2 (+11.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. Stroman's team's record is 5-14 (-16.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season and it is 4-11 (-13.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East. Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Orioles are 8-0 in Tillman's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Blue Jays are 3-14 in Stroman's last 17 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Blue Jays are 1-5 in Stroman's last 6 starts. Blue Jays are 1-7 in Stroman's last 8 starts vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 0-7 in Stroman's last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Baltimore should have plenty of confidence after finishing the season winning seven of its last nine games with a series win in Toronto last week that included a 3-2 triumph Wednesday in which Hyun Soo Kim belted a pinch-hit, two-run blast off Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna in the ninth inning. Grilli, who works the eighth inning for Toronto, allowed a total of six runs on seven hits - three home runs - in 1 2/3 innings over his last three appearances. Tillman at Toronto on Wednesday he allowed just two runs (one earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Thursday against Baltimore Stroman was reached for four runs on nine hits and two walks in seven innings. Orioles LHP Zach Britton converted all 47 of his save opportunities in the regular season with five versus Toronto, tossing eight scoreless innings over seven appearances against the Blue Jays. Take Baltimore Orioles.

25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on the NY Giants in NFC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-6 mark using the money line for 86.4% winners and has made 32.2 units/unit wagered since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) that are mistake-free teams averaging

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Dallas in NFC action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Francisco will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-22 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.9% winners and made 26.8 units/unit wagered. Play against road favorites (DALLAS) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is a poor 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992 and they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992. Garrett is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) as a favorite as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 49ers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games in October.

Fundamental Discussion Points San Francisco has gone 8-2-1 ATS at home vs. Dallas since 1980, while the Cowboys have covered just 48 of 123 on the road off a win, dating back to 1985. Dez Bryant discovered that he is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Dallas has lost its last six decisions without QB Tony Romo and Bryant in the lineup. Cowboys DE Randy Gregory will serve a 10-game suspension for multiple violations of the substance abuse policy, the NFL confirmed on Thursday. Carlos Hyde is tied with Elliot in yards per rush (3.9) and Hyde is tied for the NFL best four rushing touchdowns. Take San Francisco 49ers with the points.

25* graded play on Tampa Bay as they take on Denver in NFL action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1983. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is a money burning 21-50 ATS (-34.0 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, TB is a stout 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Winston threw for 389 yards on 36-for-58 passing in a loss to the Rams last week. Denver is a much better defensive team, but Winston has the mobility to extend plays. This capability is the perfect anecdote for an overly aggressive defense like Denver. If Denver opts not to bring pressure, then Winston has the arm to execute and compete underneath routs in a zone coverage scheme. I am looking for Winston to have another huge day with this one ending in a win.

25* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Carolina in NFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 mark good for 87% winners and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team vs the money line (ATLANTA) and is a mistake-free team committing 0.75 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Over the last 3 seasons this system has gone 18-2 making 18.8 units/unit wagered. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Although just three weeks into the season, the Falcons are the top scoring offense in the league at 34.7 PPG. They are also best in yards gained per game (448), best in points per play at 0.545. The point is that Carolina has struggled to stop any of their first three opponents and rank 19th allowing 23.3 PPG. So, Atlanta has a huge advantage on the offensive side especially with two RB playing at a very high level. On offense Newton has been under pressure in nearly pass attempt. LT is a huge problem right now for the Panthers and Atlanta will look to show pressure – not necessarily bring it – from that side of the LOS. Moreover, Benjamin was shutout last week against Minnesota to a corner that gave up 6 inches and 65 pounds to him. So, this line is based on the public perception that Carolina will in no way lose this game and go to 1-3 on the season. Truth is that Atlanta is a vastly better team than they were last year and Carolina was thoroughly outplayed last week and they are not executing with any amount of confidence. Take Atlanta.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Baltimore in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-47 mark good for 67% winners since 1983. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is a solid 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards; 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Every NFL season we see more teams either underperform or outperform their preseason media expectations. So, we have three teams this season that is undefeated and none of them were on the preseason radar in Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. I had mentioned in articles I published in the preseason a new model I had built that exploits the premise that the NFL is a league of parity; a league that is handicapped by the cap and has done very well in keeping most teams in a competitive bucket. However, I do not see Baltimore as a team that is going to go 12-4 this season, but I do see the Raiders making the playoffs. So, this is not the reason for this play by any measure. Yet, given Baltimore’s great start, it is ramped up the public betting on them and has now given us a SIM graded play that has added value from the inflated line. Raiders have had at least 123 rushing yards in each game. Baltimore has had a max of 84 rushing yards and has immense difficulty moving the ball on the ground. It has been Baltimore’s defense that has stepped up and has given the offense short field scoring opportunities. Sooner or later, this will end and Flacco will be forced to win the game with his arm and I think today is one of those games.

10* graded play on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis in AFC South action set to start at 9:30 AM ET in London, England. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Jacksonville will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-26 over the last 10 seasons good for 68.7% winners and made 28.4 units/unit wagered. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indy is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992 and they are a poor 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Jacksonville is 61-23 ATS (+35.7 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. Jaguars are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Luck is having some trouble finding healthy receivers, however, and T.Y. Hilton (knee) did not practice on Wednesday while Donte Moncrief (shoulder) could miss another month. The Colts steadily are getting healthier on the other side of the ball and surrendered 22 points in the Week 3 win after giving up a total of 73 in their first two contests. Colts LB Trent Cole was placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Indianapolis CB Darius Butler (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday and is week-to-week. Also factor in the Jaguars will be more comfortable playing in London than any other team in the NFL. Take Jacksonville Jaguars with the points.

25* graded play on the LA Angels as they take on Houston in AL West action set to start at 9:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-22 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.1% winners and made 43.8 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (LA ANGELS) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 101-59 over the last 5 seasons good for 63.1% winners and made 42.1 units/unit wagered. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing, with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Angels are 21-13 (+12.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of this season; 15-2 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 over the last 2 seasons; 19-7 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season; 12-2 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Houston is a poor 8-16 (-10.8 Units) against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games this season and they are 25-36 (-18.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.

Fundamental Discussion Points Trout is 6-for-19 with two home runs against McHugh. Skaggs last appearance was on Sept. 9, when he tossed six scoreless frames against Texas. He made three starts against Houston two years ago and was 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA over 20 innings. The Astros are shutting down rookie 3B Alex Bergman, who has been battling a right hamstring injury. Just look at which direction these two teams are trending here and note yesterday's game wasn't a fluke. Take Los Angeles Angels.

5

50* graded play on Clemson as they take on Louisville in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Unless the line does move to +3 and a minimum money line of +140, the combination wager consisting of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line is not validated. If it does move to that level, then by all means place the combination wager. I do think that the line is more likely to go to 2 ½ then back down to pick-em given the recent public betting flows that have developed over the last three days.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RY/G against a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing

25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on TCU in BIG-12 the action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-15 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is just 25-63 ATS (-44.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Sooners are a stout 123-64 ATS (+52.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going down to Forth Worth and going with Boomer and the Sooners in this Big 12 Matchup. These two teams traditionally have played close games, but we feel this is a statement game for Oklahoma as Houston and Ohio State have kept their big dreams at bay, but now they are back at home in the Big 12 where Bob Stoops has pretty much owned the conference. TCU lost a lot of offensive weapons coming into the season and have performed well this year so far. We think Oklahoma who comes into this game averaging 36 points per game will move the ball against the Horned Frog Defense and the defense will step up its game now that they are back in conference play. The Big 12 Championship is still in play for OU and we look for the Sooners to come in off a week of rest and be well prepared for this game. Baker Mayfield comes into this game with 7 touch down passes against 2 interceptions and look for this emotional leader to have a big day against the TCU defense.

Today it is Boomer Sooner and take Oklahoma and lay the 3 and a hook.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by at least 3 points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) solid team outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; OK State is just 37-94 ATS (-66.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Texas runs the ball and then they run it again and again. They rank 7th in the nation averaging 52 rushing plays per game and rank 20th gaining 238 rushing yards per game. They are not a 1-dimensional team though and use the passing plays in vertical routes that are in man coverage and without deep safety help. Texas ranks 18th in pass completion percentage and 34th averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. As you can already see, I do not believe that the Oklahoma State corners can get the job done in man coverage against very quick Texas wide-outs. Moreover, the OK State defensive front will get worn down over the course of the game and that makes play action an even greater scoring asset for Texas.

25* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IST will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. If you do have a money line for this game play a 3* amount in addition to the 25* play using the line.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark using the first-half line for 83% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (BAYLOR) with a good defense allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Each season for the past 6, I have had a huge dog of 17 points or more not only cover, but also win the game. I am not suggesting this is that situation, but I do want to point out that fact so that when we release these huge dogs that you look to add the money line part of the play. I am seeing Money Lines in the +600 level and some even higher. IST has played a tougher schedule than Baylor, who has only played a solid competitor in OK State last week. Baylor has given up more than 200 rushing yards in their last two games. The more IST established the ground attack the greater their chances for the ATS win and the monumental upset too.

25* graded play on Appalachian State as they take on Georgia State in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will win this game by at least 24 points.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Next up we are going to Boone, NC and using the Mountaineers of Appalachian State over the Panthers of Georgia State. The last 2 years Appalachian State has won by a combined score of 81-3 and we see no difference here. Georgia State comes in winless but had a close call in Madison earlier this year. The Mountaineers come in with a balanced offense averaging 211 yards on the ground and 172 in the air. Appalachian State had 2 rough road games against Tennessee and Miami Florida and now are coming way down in class. The Mountaineers have been a money maker at home in these type of games and look for them to get the easy win in their first conference game. Take  Appalachian State and lay the 19.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on Florida in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going to Nashville and taking the points with Vanderbilt against the Florida Gators. Florida had a nightmare second half in Knoxville last Saturday and we think the hangover will continue this week in a return to the volunteer state. Vanderbilt comes in with a 2-2 record has a pretty balanced offense and should be able to hang around against a Florida team who has a real good defense but is nothing special on offense. The Gator defense is stingy on the ground only allowing 76 yards per game and the pass defense statistically is good but the second half last week was exploited for over 300 yards. Very few if any weeks are easy on the SEC road and we look for a hard fought game at home similar to Florida's close win in the swamp last year and for the commodores to keep this one close again. Take Vanderbilt and grab the points.

25* graded play on Toledo as they take on BYU in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot to win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they commit 1 less turnover than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. BYU is a money burning 26-85 ATS (-67.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Toledo is on a serious and sustainable winning run. They are 3-0 SUATS and covered the three games by a whopping 36 points. This is certainly a step up in competition for Toledo, but one that I strongly believe they can defeat. The Toledo defense is playing extremely well and has been dominating the LOS with their size and LB quickness filling holes and shooting gaps. This is what the BYU OL has struggled with through four games. So, this is the critical matchup and obviously one that I strongly believe Toledo will dominate.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on San Francisco in NL West action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 229-130 over the last 5 seasons good for 63.8% winners and made a huge 77.4 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. Another proven system supports this play posting a 52-31 since 1997 good for 62.7% winners and made 32.1 units/unit wagered. Play ON road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (LA DODGERS) - with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 15-25 (-22.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 19-28 (-23.5 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of this season; 9-18 (-19.6 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals this season. Bumgarner's team's record is 3-9 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season and it is 0-6 (-9.7 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing this season. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Hill faced San Francisco on Tuesday and allowed one run with seven strikeouts in five innings. Hill is 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA while striking out 38 batters against 10 walks in seven career starts against the Giants. Bumgarner took the loss against San Diego on Wednesday after yielding five runs over six innings, including three home runs. Enrique Hernandez is 11-for-22 with three homers against Bumgarner, who owns an 0-2 record against the Dodgers with a 3.91 ERA in four outings this season. The Giants are 0-62 when trailing after eight innings this season. Take LA Dodgers.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on San Diego in NL West action set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 46-63 (-25.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons and they are 7-19 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Jackson is 2-12 (-10.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 83-61 (+17.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Padres are 1-4 in Jackson's last 5 road starts. Padres are 1-5 in Jackson's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Padres are 0-4 in Jackson's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Padres are 0-5 in Jackson's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Shipley's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Arizona did win in the last matchup against San Diego just 9 days ago. Jackson is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA in 12 career appearances (nine starts) against the Diamondbacks. Goldschmidt is hitting an impressive .354 against the Padres this year. If Arizona sweeps this series they'll put their rival San Diego into the bottom spot in the NL West. Take Arizona Diamondbacks. 

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Tampa Bay in AL action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 148-96 since 1997 good for 60.7% winners and made 46.7 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (TEXAS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay is 33-60 (-27.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 27-41 (-20.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season; 41-63 (-24.8 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season; 10-25 (-16.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season; 39-62 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season; 26-53 (-32.4 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Texas is 61-38 (+27.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season; 68-45 (+26.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season; 58-31 (+33.4 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging under 0.6 errors/game this season; 74-47 (+29.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 48-24 (+25.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season; 26-7 (+18.8 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Rays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Rays are 2-8 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Rays are 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.

Fundamental Discussion Points Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre homered versus Andriese, who took the loss against Texas on Aug. 19 as he permitted five runs over 5 1/3 innings. Darvish comes in off his finest outing of the season, when he yielded two hits and struck out nine over seven scoreless innings against Oakland. Darvish, who owns a 5-2 record at home this season, is 3-0 with 1.00 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Texas SS Elvis Andrus has gone 8-for-15 with two homers and five RBIs over his last four games to raise his average to .304. Texas is the better team and will want to wrap up home field advantage. Take Texas Rangers.

25* graded play on Oakland as they take on Seattle in AL West action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 101-92 over the last 5 seasons good for 52.3% and made a huge 58.8 units/unit wagered. Play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (OAKLAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG under .265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA under 3.75), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 41-21 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Seattle is 12-17 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season; 29-37 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons; 8-12 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season; 27-30 (-15.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Athletics are 9-4 in Graveman's last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Graveman has been keeping the ball in the park of late, serving up just one homer over his last four turns. Miranda had his four-start winning streak snapped Saturday when he gave up three runs and three hits — two homers — in four innings at Minnesota. The Mariners are just 2-4 at home against the Athletics this season. Oakland rookie 3B Ryon Healy is 9-for-15 over his last four games. Davis leads all players in this season series with 7 homers and 12 RBIs. Oakland will want to play spoiler here. Take Oakland Athletics.

25* play on Miami as they take on Cincinnati in Thursday night football action set to start at 8:30 pm ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by less than 4 points and has an outside shot to pull the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-11 over the last 5 seasons good for 75% winners and made 20.9 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (MIAMI) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams (over 7.3 PYA), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992. Lewis is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents as the coach of Cincinnati and he is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as their coach. Bengals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 4. Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Ryan Tannehill leads the Dolphins on the ground with 54 yards rushing. He continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker. Cincinnati Pro Bowl TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is not expected to make his season debut on Thursday, ESPN reported, citing a source. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring) has been held out of both practices this week, leaving his status for Thursday's game in question. Miami DE Cameron Wake recorded three sacks versus Dalton in the last meeting, with the final one resulting in a safety in overtime of a 22-20 win. Take the Miami Dolphins.

25* graded play on UCONN as they take on Houston in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 22 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2010. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Huston is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points UCONN has the passing game to stay in this game. UCONN is not an elite passing team, but they do average 233 passing yards per game that rank 65th in the nation. The Houston passing defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game , which ranks 68th best in the nation. They are excellent at stopping the run and rank 2nd in the nation in that category. Further, UCONN connects on 67% of their pass attempts. They use quick slants, and hooks, which is a strong anecdote to ward off an aggressive defensive front.

25* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they take on Pittsburgh in NL Central action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Cubs will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 166-119 over the last 5 seasons good for 58.2% winners and made 51.8 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cubs are 113-68 (+23.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons; 88-45 (+31.5 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons; 44-20 (+14.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Arrieta's team's record is 17-3 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons; 25-4 (+17.2 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 23-3 (+17.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997. Pittsburgh is 12-26 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 4-19 (-16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. over 62%) this season; 8-18 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season; 3-14 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in home games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cubs own the Pirates as they are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Pittsburgh and 20-7 in the last 27 meetings. Arrieta is 10-2 when starting against Pittsburgh with an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 0.839. Taillon started at Wrigley back on June 19th giving up three homers, 4 runs, 8 hits, and a walk in just 4 innings. Rizzo owns Pittsburgh hitting .439, 6 homeruns, and 19 runs scored this year. Also Chicago has a 3.54 ERA to Pittsburgh's 5.98 ERA in this season series. Take Chicago Cubs.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on the NY Yankees in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-19 since 1997 good for 69.4% winners and made 25.4 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - team with a good SLG (over .440) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 4-0 in Owens' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. Yankees are 2-5 in their last 7 games on grass. Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-5 in Sabathia's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Yankees are 2-10 in Sabathia's last 12 starts vs. American League East. Yankees are 1-6 in Sabathia's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-7 in Sabathia's last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Owens' lone quality start in this season came against New York on April 29, when he allowed two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings without factoring in the decision. Sabathia has gone six straight starts without a win and did not factor in the decision in any on his last four turns. Sabathia started at Boston on Sept. 18 and was reached for four runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings, bringing his total to 17 hits allowed in 10 1/3 innings against the Red Sox this season. New York RHP Adam Warren has allowed at least one run in four of his last six appearances. The famous David Ortiz won't allow his longtime nemesis sweep them in his last series against the Yankees. Take Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on Arizona as they take on Washington in NL action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Washington will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is 21-18 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging under 0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games against NL East opponents this season; 18-12 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games this season. Gonzalez's team's record is 11-18 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and they are 4-9 (-9.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Baker is 87-94 (-38.5 Units) against the money line in home games against NL West opponents in all games he has managed since 1997. Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 1-5 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.

Fundamental Discussion Points Miller looked ready to earn his first win since June 20 on Friday at Baltimore and left the game with the lead after scattering three hits over six scoreless innings but the bullpen could not secure the victory. Miller is 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA in seven career starts against Washington. Gonzalez managed just three quality starts in his last nine outings. The Florida native was ripped for six runs at Atlanta on Sept. 17 and could not get past the fifth at Pittsburgh on Friday while surrendering three runs on five hits and three walks in a no decision. Arizona 2B Jean Segura homered three times in the last two games to reach 20 on the season. Nationals RF Bryce Harper (thumb) and 2B Daniel Murphy (glute strain) both sat out the first two games of the series and remain day-to-day. Take Arizona Diamondbacks.

25* graded play on Miami as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 189-163 over the last 5 seasons good for 53.7% winners and made a MASSIVE 78.3 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 44-36 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 16-5 (+14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season; 35-24 (+16.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. New York is 37-47 (-21.6 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Mattingly is 28-17 (+18.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better as the manager of Miami. Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 Wednesday games. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Urena came within one out of a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers on Sept. 11. He is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four appearances (two starts) versus the Mets. In the season series, Miami has limited the homers with Granderson leading the Mets in the series with only 3 homeruns. The Marlins in the season series post Yelich with a .377 average and Stanton with 6 homers. Take Miami Marlins.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Toronto in AL East action set to start at 7:07 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-36 since 1997 good for 64.7% winners and made 33 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baltimore is 28-22 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season; 94-69 (+27.4 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons; 123-100 (+28.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons; Tillman's team's record is 18-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season; 9-3 (+8.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season; 21-8 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season; 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series. Orioles are 7-0 in Tillman's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 Wednesday games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Tillman allowed just two runs in 5 2/3 innings at Toronto on July 31. Francisco Liriano is 8-13 with an ERA of 4.88 on the season. Blue Jays RHP Joaquin Benoit suffered a torn left calf during a benches-clearing incident against New York on Monday and is likely to miss the rest of the season. Toronto 2B Devon Travis (left shoulder) aggravated an injury in Monday's brawl and is day-to-day. Take Baltimore Orioles.

25* graded play on the UNDER in the Falcons-Saints game, action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER the total.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-40 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Quinn is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games as the coach of Atlanta. Under is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South. Under is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1-1 in Falcons last 7 road games. Under is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points This line already reflects far and away too many points being scored. Julio Jones is listed as probable in this game. These are divisional opponents, which doesn't make for a good Over play. They had great offenses and awful defenses last year as well, but in their last meeting the total was 37 points. Take the UNDER.

25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on St. Louis in NL Central action set to start at 8:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. St. Louis is 10-15 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season; 10-17 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons; 9-15 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season; 2-11 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season; 33-41 (-25.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season; 7-14 (-10.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season; 20-32 (-19.7 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Garcia's team's record is 2-7 (-8.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Cardinals are 1-4 in Garcia's last 5 starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Adleman allowed only two runs and five hits over 6 1/3 innings in his last outing. Garcia was pulled from his last start Sept. 13 when he yielded two runs on three hits and two walks in 1 2/3 frames against Chicago after suffering the loss in each of his previous four turns. One of those setbacks took place at Cincinnati, where he fell to 11-5 lifetime versus the Reds despite giving up only two runs in six innings Sept. 3. Cincinnati 1B Joey Votto enters the series with a seven-game hitting streak. Take Cincinnati Reds.

25* graded play on Miami as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-33 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36.7 units/unit wagered. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is 43-36 (+14.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 27-17 (+17.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season; 34-24 (+15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. New York Mets are 36-47 (-22.6 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Marlins are 10-2 in Conley's last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Marlins are 8-2 in Conley's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Marlins are 4-1 in Conley's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Following the tragic death of their ace, Miami will win this one for Fernandez. Conley was scheduled to go in Sunday's cancelled game but is instead expected to be activated from the disabled list in time for Monday's turn. Conley has been tough on the Mets in his young career, going 1-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four games - three starts. Miami 2B Derek Dietrich homered in three of his last eight games. Mets INF Wilmer Flores (wrist) could miss the rest of the season. Take Miami Marlins.

25* graded play on Toronto as they take on the NY Yankees in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At home Toronto is 7-1 (+5.9 Units) against NY Yankees this season. Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a loss. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. American League East. Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-8 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 games on astroturf. Yankees are 1-4 in Severino's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 1-10 in Severino's last 11 starts. Yankees are 0-5 in Severino's last 5 road starts. Yankees are 0-5 in Severino's last 5 starts vs. American League East. Yankees are 0-6 in Severino's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series. Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 5-0 in Happ's last 5 starts during game 4 of a series. Blue Jays are 5-0 in Happ's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Blue Jays are 15-1 in Happ's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 8-1 in Happ's last 9 starts vs. American League East.

Fundamental Discussion Points Happ became baseball's second 20-game winner when he allowed two runs in five innings of a 10-2 victory at Seattle on Tuesday. He has won 14 of his last 15 decisions overall and owns a 2.39 ERA in his four meetings with the Yankees in 2016. The 33-year-old is 11-2 in 14 home starts. Severino was 0-8 with an 8.58 ERA as a starter earlier this year and is 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in four games (three starts) against Toronto. Bautista has reached base in 32 straight games and has eight RBIs in his last four contests. New York rookie C Gary Sanchez is 2-for-14 with five strikeouts in four games since Wednesday. Take Toronto Blue Jays.

25* graded play on the Chicago bears as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Sunday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot they will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 66-34 mark good for 67% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) that is a bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bears are a solid 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points. Dallas is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Cutler’s drama is certainly much better suited for the couch in front of his TV where no teammates can see the toxicity he brings to any given situation. Hoyer will be a breath of fresh air for the entire team. He is 8-4 ATS as a career road dog and brings veteran leadership to a team sorely in need of stability. Dallas rookie Elliott has underperformed through the first two weeks and he will not break out in this game either having to go against one of the best defensive fronts in football. The Bears defensive grades have not been good, but are nowhere close to reflecting the overall talent of that unit. With Cutler out, I think you’ll see that defense play with renewed heart and will make it difficult for Prescott to move the chains and sustain drives. I have to admit, that this play appears to be a reach on paper given the recent two weeks of results. However, we have seen countless games where a contrarian approach proves correct and this one is backed first by the SIM Algorithm grading.