Alabama vs Florida

8:00 PM EST, December 19, 2020

5% Best Bet Florida +17 and yes, sprinkle some on the money line at a +650 price. 

I will be playing this game as an 85% amount of a 5% bet using the spread and then 15% on the money line. 

This betting system has earned a 23-18 SU record for 56% winning bets over the last ten seasons making a $100 bettor a profit of $5,705. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. 

From the machine learning tools, Florida is projected to gain 9 or more yards-per-pass-play and Alabama is 11-22 SU when they have allowed an opponent 9 or more YPPP. Under head coac Nick Saban, the Tide is 5-11 ATS and just 9-7 SU when allowing 8.5 or more YPPL. 

Florida is 16-2 against the money line when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons; 26-4 against the money line when they gain 450 to 500 total yards in games played since 2000. 

Illinois vs Penn State
4% Best Bet on Penn State -15 points

 This betting system has earned a highly profitable 48-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a conference foe and coming off two consecutive wins and ATS covers as double-digit favorites.

 From the machine learning model and tools, PSU is expected to score at least 28 points and they are 33-11-4 ATS under James Franklin when scoring 28 or more points. Illinois is just 15-53-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2011. PSU is also projected to gain over 500 yards. They are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets under James Fraklin.

Air Force vs Army
3:30 PM EST, December 19, 2020

4% Best Bet on Army and sprinkle soe on the money line. I like making these live dogs combination wagers using the line and the money line. I am wagerig 70% of my 4% bet amount plus the points and then 30% using the money line.

Here is one of the best money line bettig systems you will ever see and has earned a 24-5 SU record over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a non-conference foe, who is coming off two straight wins over conference foes.

Air Force is just 34-42 against the money line (-50.9 Units) when facing good rushing teams averaging a minimum of 4.75 rushing yards-per-carry.

I also like Army using the first-half money lie as they are projected to have the lead at the half. Army is 20-3 SU when gaining 250 or rushing yards in home games and have lead at the half.

Oklahoma vs Iowa State

Big-12 Championship

4% Best Bet on Iowa State +

I also like making this a combination wager consisting of 70% amount of a 4% amount using the line and a 30% of a 4% amount bet using the money line.

Iowa State is active in a very strong betting system that has earned a 46-17 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that s a good rushing team gaining 190 to 230 rushing yards after playing seven or more games, and after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game and now facing a team that is averaging 140 to 180 rushing yards-per-game.

The machine learning model and tools project that ISU will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and average a minimum of at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games where they met these standards, they have earned a 25-9-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 2011. Plus, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when installed as a dog.

UAB vs Marshall
Ryan Conference USA Championship Game
Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntigton, WV

4% Best bet on the UAB Blazers

UAB has posted terrific re zone numbers scoring 23 TDs and 7 FGs on 32 red zone attempts. Only two times did they not score points in the red zone. They have played two games over the last six weeks, but they are led by Senior QB Tyler Johnston III, So, his experience is major advantage for the entire team.

UAB is 35-11 ATS after a two-gae road trip. UAB head coach is 32-18-1 ATS when playing a game on a turf field. Marshall HC Holliday is just 9-18 ATS as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and 1-8 ATS coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points in the first half.

Home teams, who suffered their first loss of the season after game number 6 has been played and are facing a team that lost to them in their previous matchup has earned a money-burning 26-47 ATS record good for 35% winning bets since 2008.

Betting on road underdogs after the first four weeks of the season, who are facing a host that was beaten by 28 or more points versus the spread over the last ten seasons has earned a 60-26-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. So, UAB is the road underdog and Marshall lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite to Rice in their last game.

Bet UAB as a 4% Best bet +4.5 points and sprinkle some on the money line.

LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
4% Best Bet on the Chargers +3 points.

Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games.

Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game.

Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points

The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles.

Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes.

Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes.

This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored.

Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG.

No 9 Villanova vs Georgetown

McDonough Arena

5% Best Bet on Villanova -11.5 points.

The betting line opened with Villanova installed as -10-point road favorites and quickly moved to the current price of -11.5 points. The machine learning summary predicts Villanova will win this game by at least 18 points, so any further increase in the betting line will in no way disqualify this betting opportunity.

The machine learning tools predict that Villanova will score 80 or more points, shoot 40% or better from the beyond the arc, and commit 5 or fewer turnovers than Georgetown. In past games in which Villanova met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an impressive 23-0 SU record and 18-3 ATS record good for 86% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points.

New England vs LA Rams
8:15 PM EST, December 10, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line.

Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond.

This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG.

The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick.

The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too.

Santa Clara vs Cal Poly
9:00 PM EST, December 9, 2020
Robert A. Mott Athletics Center San Luis Obispo, CA

I always like asking people when Caly Poly comes up in a hoopes discussion (Or machine learning discussion) what the SLO stands for. You may know the answer, but if you do not the answer is San Luis Obispo (SLO). And is one of California’s oldest European founded Communities. Plus, one heck of a technology school too.

I did wait to release this play today having great confidence that the line was going to climb higher as the day wore on. This betting system supports the bet on Cal Poly SLO and has earned a 43-22-2 ATS record good for 71% ATS winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on home teamsa during the first 6 games of the regular seasons after losing 8 or more of their last 10 games of the previous season to earn a poor win percentage of 20 to 40% and now facing a team that had a winning record last season.

Cal Poly SLO has earned a 9-2 ATS record installed as a double-digit underdog in games played over the last two seasons.

Denver vs Kansas City
4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos +13.5 points and sprinkle a small amount on the monmey line.

There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs.

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points.

Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons.

Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know.

Cleveland  Browns vs Tennessee Titans

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points.

The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes.

The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG.

This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season.

The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures.

Miami (Fla) vs Duke
8:00 PM EST, December 4, 2020

3% ACC Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes

 The summary projections from my machine learning toolshed indicate a high probability that the Hurricanes will win this game by 24 or more points.

The following college football betting system has earned a remarkable 76-35-2 ATS record for 69% winning plays since 2006 and requires us to bet on road teams play their second, third, or fourth consecutive road game and are favored by 14 or more points and facing an opponent hat has won 35% or less of their games on the season.

It all adds up to the Miami Hurricanes cruising to an easy win. 

Tennessee vs Florida
5% SEC Best bet on the Tennessee

From my days on Wall Street as an institutional trader, this is an example of arbitrage, which is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. In the SEC is buying low with Tennessee and selling high with Florida and getting a spread that is just too many points.

Teams in the SEC, like Tennessee, who have lost five straight and failed to cover the spread in all five games are 5-0 ATS in SEC competition in games played over the last five seasons.

Now, here is a money line betting system that has feasted on getting on cheaply priced underdogs and has earned a 45-65 record for just 43% wins, BUT has averaged a +300 underdog bet and making the $100 bettor a profit of $7,450 in bets made over the last five seasons. The requirements are simple and are to bet against road favorites using the money line after game number 5 of the regular season and having won five consecutive games.

So, I know and understand, that this is a bold statement, but play this bet as a 5% using the line and then sprinkle just a little on the money line – just in case of the shocker of all shockers. I have had at least one underdog of 17 or more points win the game in each of the last 10 seasons. I obviously never know when they will occur, but playing a little on the money line with these double-digit cast to the curb dogs has provided a lot more cash.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn

4% Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers +6.5 points. I also like playing this bet by placing an 85% amount of a 4% bet using the line and then15% of a 4% amount using the money line. This strategy when used on underdogs that I believe have a solid opportunity to win the game adds a significant amount of additional profits over the course of the season.

Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher was a great defensive coordinator for Florida State. He has his A&M team allowing just 3.0 yards-per-rush, ranking second in the SEC behind Georgia, who is allowing a scant 2.4 YPR on the season. In home games, Auburn is a stellar 27-12-1 ATS when facing strong rush defesnes allowing 120 or fewer yards-per-game in games played since 2006.

Auburn is 16-4-1 ATS after having covered the spread in three of their last four games since 2006; under head coach Gus Malzahn, they are 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets (7-2 ATS when the game is at home).

The bad news of losing 42-13 to No. 1 Alabama last week is good news this week as it puts them into a rock-solid betting system that has earned a highly profitable 33-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to be on underdogs from the eighth game on, between 3.5 and 9.5 points, and coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points in the first half, and is averaging between 21 and 28 PPG and facing an elite offense scoring between 28 and 34 PPG on the season.

From the machine learning toolshed Auburn is projected to score at least 28 points and when they have accomplished this in past games, they are 15-2 ATS over the last three seasons and 118-47 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plus, a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog and scoring 28 or more points under head coach Malzahn.

Penn State vs Rutgers

Noon ET, December 5, 2020

4% Best Bet on Penn State -11,-11.5 points.  Given that my machine learning model project that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points, simply bet the game with the line that is available for you. 

Here is a consistent money-making betting system that has earned a highly profitable 186-111-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2011. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG on the season and facing an opponent that has played two consecutive games in which they and their opponents scored 60 or more points. A subset including double digit road favorites and conference matchups produces a 71-39-1 ATS record good fo 65% winning bets since 2012. 

PSU Head Coach James Franklin is a 12-3 ATS off a road win; 27-8-1 SATS off a win against a conference foe; 11-3 off a road win to a conference foe. PSU is an outstanding 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets installed as a double-digit road favorite and facing a host, who has a defense allowing 30 or more PPG on the season. 

North Texas vs. Mississippi State

8:00 PM EST, December 4, 2020

4% Best Bet on North Texas plus 3.5-points. If the line drops to +2.5 or lower, then consider using the money line for this bet.

Miss State is just 7-17-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed a 33% or lower shooting percentage in games played since 2006. North Texas is 55-28 ATS for 67% winning bets in non-home games (road or neutral) installed as a 5.5-point or less underdog in games played since 2006.

Head Coach McCasland has three returning starters from last season and a 1-starter edge of Miss State skipper Howland, who returns two starters. Experience at the beginning of the season is a premium asset. McCasland is a solid 23-9-1 ATS when facing strong defensive teams allowing 42% or lower opponent shooting.

From the machine learning ranks, the model projects that North Texas will hold MSST to 45% or worse shooting, commit 13 or fewer turnovers, and make 80% of their free throws. In past games, in which North Texas, met or exceeded these performance measures has earned their backers a 19-5 SU record good for 79% wins and 17-5-1 ATS for 77% winning bets in games played since 2006.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020

5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.

My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.

The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.

Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.

Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan

J

Ball State Vs. Toledo

12:00 PM EST, November 28, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Ball State Cardinals plus the points. Consider an additional wager of no more than a 1% amount using the money line

Let’s start with a betting system that has earned a solid 35-9-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent that is allowing right or fewer points in the first half and are coming off two consecutive games in which they scored 20 or more points in the first half. 

Toledo has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but Ball State has won the money sporting a 7-4 ATS record. Ball State Senior QB Drew Pitt led his team to 38-0 first half lead over Toledo last season enroute to a 52-14 beat-down. He completed 11 fo 16 passes for 65% and 206 passing yards for an amazing 213 quarter rate. His leadership is invaluable and he knows Toledo and their defensive schemes well. So, this is just too many points to give Ball State in this matchup. 

Toledo head coach Candle is just 2-10 ATS when coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored in each one. 

Toledo QB Eli Peters remains listed as questionable with a knee injury and even if he does start, he will not be even 80% effective. 

Take the Ball State Cardinals plus the points as a 4% Best Bet Titan and sprinkle no more than 1% on the Money Line

Kent State vs. Buffalo
12:00 Noon ET, November 28, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points.

 There are numerous coaching trends that support Buffalo in this matchup. Head Coach Leipold is 12-2-1 ATS in home games coming off one or more ‘OVER’ results; 18-3-1 ATS in home games facing MAC foes; 7-0 ATS when coming off a game in which the Bulls out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 125 rushing yards; 10-1 ATS in home games facing an opponent that completes a minimum of 58% of their passes.

 From the machine learning model, Buffalo is projected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of of 6 yards-per-rush. Buffalo is 16-5 ATS over the last three seasons and 70-19-1 ATS the last ten seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS and 11-0 SU when they have scored 28 or more points and gained 6 or more YPR since 2011.

 Take the Buffalo Bulls to the bank as a 4% Best Bet minus the points.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina
3:30 PM EST, November 27, 2020

The No.2 Notre Dame Irish will take to the road to face a white hot and No. 25 UNC Tarheels team in a monster showdown. UNC QB Sam Howell is coming off a school-record 550 passing yards in a come from behind 59-53 win over Wake Forest and is atop the ACC standings averaging 338 yards-per-game of total offense including 23 touchdowns.

Notre Dame will try to rotate defensive linemen and corners into the game, but UNC will play fast, especially when they have the matchup them want to exploit on the perimeter and the back-end of the Irish defense. The Irish start a true freshman at corner in Clarence Lewis and you can bet the Tarheels will look to exploit favorable matchups against him and not allow the Irish to have time to substitute for fatigued players.

The ground game of the Tarheels is a two-headed monster in Javonte Williams (109) and Michael Carter (101) both averaging more than 100 rushing yards-per-game. The Irish defense ranks best in the ACC allowing 85.1 RYPG, but that number is going to go up after this game. The solid ground attack is going to put immense pressure on the Irish secondary. The safeties in particular have to lineup closer to the line of scrimmage than normally required to support the run defense. When the safeties are playing run, then the vertical crossing routes are going to be in man converage for Howell to exploit time and time again.

Home underdogs coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 42 points in each game are a rock solid 71-34 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1980 and 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2017. If both teams are ranked and the home dog is ranked lower in the standings than the opponent (ND =2 and UNC=25), the home dog is a stellar 7-4 SU for 64% winning bets and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning model projects that UNC will average a minimum of 10 yards-per-pass play and rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards. In past games in which UNC met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 20-1 SU record and 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points in games played since 2000.

Nevada Wolf Pack vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
2:00 PM ET, November 26, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska had their struggles with a 7-25 SU record in 2019, but will be much better in 2020. They did get off a great starte defeating McNeese State 102-55 yesterday, shooting 50% form the field, 45 total rebounds, and just 10 turnovers.

I have a betting system that supports Nebraska and has earned an incredible 48-17 ATS record over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on home teams for the first five games of the regular season after losing eight of their last ten games of the previous season and won between 20% and 40% of their games last seasons and facing a team that did have a winning record last season.

From the machine learning model, Bengraska is projected to shoot at least 44% from the field and have fewer than 14 turnovers in this m,atchup. In past games, in which Nebraska met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a profitable 24-12-1 ATS road record good for 67% winning bets and 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets at neutral sites.

Take the Nebraska Cornhuskers as a 4% Best Bet

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
12:00 PM EST, November 26, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points.

Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets.

Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points.

Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points.

NFL Week 11
LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Bucs
4% Best Bet ‘OVER’ the posted total

I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for both teams to score at least 24 points. Further, both teasm will average a minimum of 5.5 yards-play. In past games in which both teasm averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play has led to an outstanding 850-220-24 for 79% winning bets on the ‘OVER’ since 2006. The Rams are 32-6 ‘OVER’ and 21-7 ‘OVER’ in games they played in and had both them and the opponent gain 5.5 or more yards-per-play.

This betting system has earned a 25-7 ‘OVER’ record good for 78% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are to bet ‘OVER’ the posted total between 43 and 50 points in the second half of the season with a team that is averaging between 6.7 to 7.3 passing yards-per-attempt, coming off a previous game in which they averaged eight or more PYPA and now facing an opponent, whose defense has allowed between 5.3 to 5.9 PYPA. This system has hit 80% on an 8-2 record over the last five seasons.

NFL Week 11
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts
4% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts

I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010.

The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game.

Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line.

NFL Week 11

4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career.

     Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance.  Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being  hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome.

     Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season.

    
My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models predict that Denver will average more yards-per-play than the Dolphins and score at least 20 points. In past home games in which the Broncos met or exceeded these measures has led to a 25-11 SU record for 69% wins and 27-7-2 ATS for 79% winning bets that have covered by an  average of 9 points in games played since 2010.

Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line.

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens

The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
7:30 PM EST, November 21, 2020

5% Big-12 Game of the Month on the Oklahoma State Cowboys

I like Oklahoma State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The machine learning model projects that Oklahoma State will rush the ball a minimum of 40 times and gain at least 165 rushing yards. In past games in which Oklahoma State met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a 59-11 SU record and a highly-profitable 52-13-4 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2006 and 15-6-2 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.

This money line betting system has earned a solid money-making 32-12 SU record good for 72% winning bets  spanning the last ten seasons and underscores my expectations that Oklahoma State can win the game. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line that is coming off a game gaining a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-rush attempt, is averaging at least 4 YPRA, and is now facing a team with an average run defense allowing between 3.7 and 4.2 YPRA on the season.

NCAAF Week 12
PAC-12 Action

4% Best Bet UCLA Bruins plus the points over Oregon

My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models that I developed predict that UCLA will score at least 28 points and hold Oregon to a maximum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which UCLA met or exceeded these performance measures has earned thema 46-15-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2006 and under head coach Chip Kelly a perfect 4-0 ATS mark.

Kelly is 14-2 ATS in road games and coming off a game in which his team had no more than single turnover.

Bet on conference road underdogs that are not ranked and facing a conference foe that is ranked and within the first five games of the season and are coming off a game in which they allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards. This set of parameters has earned a 21-11 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 2005.

Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina
12:00 PM EST, November 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Appalachian State

I like Appalachian State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The following betting system has eanred a highly-profitable 26-7-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet on a team that is facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games and in a matchup where both the team and the opponent have a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. In Week 7 of last year Appalachian State was in the same role and defeated Louisiana Lafayette 17-7 as a 1.5-point road underdog.

My machine learning models predict that App State will have at least a five minute edge in time of possession and will run a minimum of 65 plays in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned an outstanding 25-7-1 ATS record for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.2 points.

Illinois vs Rutgers
Noon ET, November 14, 2020
4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Fighting Illini

The money flows support this play on Illinois. Illinois bettig volume accounts for 68% of the moiney bet on just 28% of the tickets. This reflects a much greater betting amount per-bet placed on Illinois and reflects that the sophisticated professional likes backing Illinois.

This betting system supports Illinois and has eanred a solid 38-10-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requires are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are gettig outscored by 17 or more points-per-game and have allowed 31 or more points in three consecutive games.

NCAAF Week 11
Army vs Tulane

4% Best Bet on the Army Black Knights

Army is a young team, but playing at a high level and received the 27th most votes in this week’s AP poll. The have not played in three weeks and I do not believe there will be any letdown whatsoever. The team knows that with a win here in New Orleans they will crack the Top-25 poll this coming week.

The following system has eanred an outstanding 75-26-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road teams that are averaging a minimum of 235 rushing yards-per-game, are coming off a game gaining at least 280 rushing yards, and now facing an opponment that has allowed 125 to 150 RYPG on the season.

The machine learning model projects that Army will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and this is great news for backers of Army. In games in which Army rushed for 250 or more yards on 60 or more rushig attempts, and scored 27 or more points has earned a 27-11 SU record and a 25-13 ATS mark good for 66% winning bets since 2010.

NCAAF Week 11
Iowa vs Minnesota

4% Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes

First, 48% of the tickets and 77% of the monmey has been on the Hawkeyes in betting action this week and that is supportive of our bet. I like the line at 3 and do not expect it to move to 3.5, but you could see the vig start increasing on the Iowa lines.

My machine learning models project that Iowa will score 28 or more points in this matchup. In past games in which they scored 28 or more has earned them a solid 31-2 SU record and 24-8-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. And when on the road and scoring 28 or more points, Iowa is a perfect 10- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points in games played since 2015.

Eastern Michigan vs Ball State
7:00 PM EST, November 11, 2020

4% Best Bet on Ball State

EMU is coming off a 27-23 loss and ATS win to Kent State. They gained just 61 yards on 31 attempts for a 1.9 yards-per-rush ratio. Their defense allowed 431 yards to Kent State with 212 on the ground and 219 through the air. So, they were outgained by 151 rushing yards and reflects the fact that Kent State dominated both sides of the line-of-scrimmage. These results sets of EMU in a very poor situation for this matchup against Ball State.

The following betting system underscores teams failure to run the ball and control at least one side of the LOS. The system has earned a 151-89-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on favorites between 8 and 17.5 points that are facing an opponent that was out-rushed by a minimum of 125 rushing yards in their previous game.

 The machine learning models predict that Ball State will score a minimum of 28 points. In past games dating back to 2010, Ball State is a solid 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. EMU is 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2010.

Take Ball State as a 4% Best Bet

NFL Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs
8:20 ET, November 8, 2020

5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor. 

 This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations.

The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes.

Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career.

 The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

No.1 Clemson vs No. 4 Notre Dame
7:30 PM EST, November 7, 2020

The marquee game of the day pits these two ACC powerhouses against eachother in Southbend, Indiana. This game marks the 39th time that Notre Dame has been installed as a home dog and have earned a 17-22 SU record and 23-16 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 1980. Heach Coach Kelly is 4-2 as a home dog at Notre Dame as the spreadsheet below reveals.

Since 1996, there have been eight games pitting top-5 ranked teams after six or more games have been played. The home dog in these power matchups has gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS for 38% winning bets.

Clemson head coach Swinney is Swinney is 32-13 ATS after two consecutive games where they committed no more than one turnover.

From the machine learning models Clemson is 13-3 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and their rank is higher in the polls than the opponent’s rank. Notre dame is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS for 22% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points to a team ranked higher than them.

Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

4% Best On the Vanderbilt Commodores

Let us start with a tried and true betting system that supports the Commodores and has earned a 62-27 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road underdogs that have allowed 30 or mor epoints in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent coming off a loss of 17 or more points.

Mississippi State has had three consecutive games which they lost the turnover battle. Teams that have an average turnover margin of less than -1 and have had three straight games with a -1 or lower turnover margin are just 64-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

The machine learning models project that M-State will rush for 50 to 115 yards and when they have in past games have been a money-burning 5-15 ATS record for 25% winning bets since 2010. Vanderbilt is 9-2 ATS in road tilts when they have allowed 115 or fewer rushing yards.

Houston Cougars vs Cincinnati Bearcats
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

This 4% bets bet is on the Houston Cougars and consider an alternative betting strategy placing 3% using the line and a 1% amount on the money line. My machine learning models do show a reasonable chance that we could see a headline-making upset. 

This is a matchup in which Cincinnati is in a ‘reversion’ mode meaning their recent performance measures are not sustainable and prone to an average or below-average performance. For instance, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS following three consecutive games allowing an opponent 125 or fewer yards since 1990. 

My machine learning models project that the Cougars will gain at least 135 rushing yards and will have no more than two turnovers and will have fewer turnovers than Cincinnati. In past games in which the Cougars met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to earn a stout 36-4 SU record and 30-9-1 ATS for 77% winning bets that covered by an average of 11.5 points in games played since 2010. 

No 21 Michigan vs. No 11 Indiana
12:00 PM ET, Novem,ber 7, 2020

Indiana is off to a fast and unexpected 2-0 start to the 2020 season. Michigan was shocked by Michigan State, who lost to Rutgers, and annot lose another game before their showdown against Ohio State. Let’s get right to the data points.

Road favorites of not more than seven points that rank lower in the AP poll than their host ranks are 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990 and 7-1 ATS since 2015. Michigan is the team targeted by this database query today.

Indiana is just 3-18 ATS coming off a game in which they covered the spread as a double-digit favorite since 1990.

From my machine learning summaries, Michigan is expected to gain 200 or more rushing yards and outgain Indiana by a minimum of 100 total offensive yards. In past games, in which Michigan met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 49-0 SU and 34-15 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1990 and 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS since 2015. Take the Michigan Wolverines as a Best Bet Titan.

(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020

4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet.

The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season.

The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack.

RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average.

My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005.

Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight.

(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo
1:00 ET, November 1, 2020

4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots

I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements.

1.       Bet on any team regardless of the betting line.

2.       Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL).

3.       Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL.

4.       Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards.

Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career.

Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points.

135 Ohio State Buckeyes vs 136 Penn State Nittany Lions
7:30 PM EST, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Big Ten Upset Alert on the Lions + 12

Big Thanks go out to Johnny Detroit of WagerTalk and Sportsmemo for giving me the opportunity to join the best assembly of sports handicappers on the planet. Some of these veterans I have known since my internet start back in 1997, so it is an honor for me to be part of this winning team.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off on eof the most bizarre games in recent seasons. They outgained the Indiana Hoosiers, but still lost in overtime on a controversial 2-point conversion that was awarded to the Hoosiers and ended the game 36-35. The Lions were quite rusty and made far too many mental mistakes so it the last play of the game was not the reason they lost the game. Murphy’s Law was certainly on the Lions side of theledge while the Luck of the Irish was on the Hoosiers.

The betting lineopened with the Buckeyes installed as 10.5-point road favorites. The line has since moved to -12.5-points as offered at Caesars, currently, and more than 90% of the bets have been on Ohio State. I expect this vastly lop-sided betting flow will find an equilibrium in the 13 to 13.5-point range as game time approaches. One way to bet this game is place 50% of a 4%-bet amount now and then steadily add 0.25% amount with each ½-point rise in the line. Scaling in your bet in a game where the consensus betting flows overwhelmingly favor the opponent is always a wise choice.

Justin Field and the Buckeyes team performed as expected after a slow start. The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a game plan not to get beat over the top last week. They had their corners, especially on the far side of the field, seven or more yards off the line-of-scrimmage (LOS). So, they simply dared Fields to throw the field side out route, which few College level QBs can make since it is a 30 to 35 yard horizontal high-risk pass. The pass must be thrown hard and accurate.

I past seasons the Michigan Wolverine’s press defense has been obliterated every year by the Buckeye offense. Truly, the only style of defense that is ewffective against he Buckeyes spread offense that features many variations of crossing routes, is the zone-blitz scheme. Guess, who has been usig that scheme the past few seasons? If Parsons, who is arguably the best defensive player in the nation, was in the lineup, this line would be 10-points. Still, the Lions are quite deep at the linebacker position and stronmgly believe they will be highly effective against the Buckeyes offense.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 29-11-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and has four requirements.

1.       Bet on home underdogs.

2.       The game is a matchup of conference foes.

3.       The home dog is coming off a loss of installed as a road favorite of 6 or more points.

4.       The opponent is coming off a home win of 17 or more points.

I run machine learning models that provide a glimpse at what the final box score may look like if the predictions go our way. When we lose a bet these predictions serve to show we lost the bet too.   

The models project that the Lions will gain at least 200 rushing yards, score 28 or more points, and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Buckeyes. In past games in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has produced an outstanding 32-0 SU record and a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winning bets. Take Penn State and enjoy takig the generous amount of points.                                                                                                             

(123) Notre Dame vs (124) Georgia Tech
3:30 ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 points and is valid up to -22.5 points

 My machine learning models suggest that this is a major mismatch on both sides of the ball. The models project that the Irish will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and score a minimum of 28 points. The following table shows the SU and ATS results for each of these parameters and then combined for when the Irish have met or exceeded these performance measures.

 Irish records since 2010

Team

Scoring >=28

Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Irish

67-12 SU + 53-25 ATS 68%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

22-1 SU + 18-5 ATS for 78%

Yellow Jackets since 2010

Team

Allowing Scoring >=28

Allowing Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Yellow Jackets

11-48 SU + 13-44-2 ATS 23%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

2-8 SU + 0-10 ATS for 0%

So, you can see that any one of the two or both combined produce favorable results for the Irish and a winning bet. Based on my predictive power ratings, the Irish are a 29-point favorite in this game.

 For the season, the Irish are average a solid 12.3 yards-per-point. The lower the value the better and more efficient the offense is when looking at offensive yards-per-point. The models project that the Irish will post an offensive yards-per-point metric between 10 and 12 in this game. Note, that the Irish are 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have posted a yards-per-point reading between 10 and 12. Take the Irish.

(137) Memphis Tigers vs. (138) Cincinnati Bearcats
Noon ET, October 31, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Memphis Tigers +6.5 points and is valid down to an including +4 points.

 Quarterback Brady White and the Memphis Tigers will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the No 7 Cincinnati Bearcats in a showdown of American Conference teams. White has been solid completing 107 of his 165 pass attempts for 1,375 yards including 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers have faced far better competition than the Bearcats, who have faced Austin Peay, Army, and American conference foes South Florida and SMU. The Bearcats man-handled No 22 SMU in a 42-13 road win and covered the number as 1.5-point dogs. With a Tiger win over the Bearcats, they are in position to run the table to end the season 8-1 and would have the tie-breaker over the Bearcats.

 This betting system supports the Tigers and has earned a 57-36-2 ATS record good for 61.3% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on non-ranked road underdogs of 3.5 or more points for their first five games of the season anmd are facing a ranked conference foe.

 Here is a second betting system that support the Tigers and underscores their underrated ground attack. The system has earned a 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requirements are to be on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in game of strong rushing teams averaging 200 to 235 rushing yards-per-game and with the ranked opponent coming off a game in which they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Now you can see the upset alert.

(117) Kansas State vs (118) West Virginia
Noon ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on Kansas State +6 points and is valid down to +4

 West Virginia’s QB Jarrett Doege leads the B-12 conference with 127 completions, 4th with a 64% pass completions, and third with 1389 passing yards on the season. The offense is scoring 32.3 PPG, but is struggling to run the ball. The lack of a solid ground attack will give the K-State defense the luxury of not having to bring the safeties up to the line of scrimmage. The K-State defense can then mix quarters, man, underneath man coverages with help from the safeties in deep post and crossing routes. Doege is going to struggle against the K-State defense.

 This betting system has earned a solid 100-49-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and has three requirements.

1.       Play on a road team.

2.       The home team is coming off a conference loss by 7 or fewer points.

3.       Both teams are winning 60% to 80% of their games on the season.

Take Kansas State.

(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers
8:20 PM EST, October 29, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Falcons +2 1/2 and is valid bet down to and including pick-em

Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers.

The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes.

My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures.

Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles
Game 6 2020 World Series
8:08 PM EST, October 27, 2020

7-Star Best bet Titan on the Los Angeles Dodgers
7-Star OVER
3-Star Action Reverse Parlay Dodgers and the OVER

To recap, I took the Dodgers to win the series and Kershaw for the MVP. One of those may happen tonight. The ‘MATH”’ likes the Dodgers quite a bit tonight and I also like starter Tony Gonsolin, who did pitch well in his last start allowing 1 ER over 1 1/3 innings of work. He took the loss, but kept the Dodgers in the game eating up that inning and 12.5% of the game. That is the key again tonight for him and the Dodsgers will ride him through two innings if possible. The Rays Snell did not get the win in that matchup and went 4 2/3 innings a llowing two ER and a HR before being lifted.

The story of this series is the Dodger power across the lineup with five players averaging 90 or more MPH exit velocity and the Rays having one. Nine different Dodgers have gone yard in this series and thee will be more tonight.

The machine learning models project that the Dodgers will have two multiple run innings and the Rays will have 10 ormore strikeouts. In past games in which the the these metrics were met saw the Dodgers go 87-15 SU for 85% wins and a 34% ROI, 78-24 using the Run Line for 77% winning bets and a 53% ROI, and 77-19-7 OVER for 81% wins over the last five seasons.

Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, October 26, 2020

10-Star NFL Game of the Month

The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.

My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.

The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.

The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.

The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.

The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.

Nick Foles has not set the world on fire since taking over the starting QB position from the much-maligned Mitch Trubisky. His QBR is lower than Trubisky, but Foles wins. Just as he did in the 2016 regular season and culminating in the Super Bowl Championship and an MVP award for the Philadelphia Eagles. I am not suggesting a futures bet just yet on the Bears, but they are a united offensive unit when he is on the field, and Foles somehow makes the entire team better.

Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.

From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.

Take the Bears and the points.

Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders
4:05 PM EST

4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders

Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE.

The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points.

 Green Bay vs Houston
1:00 PM EST, October 25, 2020

4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans

A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades.

When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2.

Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points.

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST, October, 25, 2020

4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season.

The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio

In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover.

The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns.

There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons.

Bet on any team on the money line when:

1.       The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush.

2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards.

From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010.

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh
3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020

7-Star Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Pitt Panthers

This Irish team has many uncertainties and is highly suspect based onmy research. Irish love to run the ball, but will be going against on eof the best defensive fronts in the nation. Pitt matches extremely well against the Irish and this is a game that Pitt can win outright.

The line has been static all week, but the total has crashed down from an opening of 48.5 points to the current level of 43.5 points. This is a rare occurrence and brings even greater value to Pitt plus the 9.5 points. The implied final score is an Irish 27-17. The opening line had an implied final of an Irish 29-20 win. So, this shows that Pitt can score fewer points with a total this much lower than the opening and cover the spread.

Pitt has an underrated defensive unit and note that Irish are a money-burning 14-17 SU and 11-20 ATS for 36% when facing a team that allows an average of 285 offensive yards.

From the machine learning models, Pitt is predicted to average a minimum of 7.5 yards-per-pass attempt and will hold the Irish to less than 200 passing yards. When Pitt has met or exceeded these performance measures they are 25-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS 67% winning bets and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2010.

Iowa State vs Oklahoma State

3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020
FOX

7-Star Titan on the Iowa State Cyclones

This betting system supports the Cyclones and works against the Cowboys earning a solid 34-8 ATS record for 81% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on underdogs between 3 and 9 points.

2.       That are facing a host that is allowing 8 or fewer first-half points-per-game

3.       The host has scored 20 or more points in the first half in each of their last two games.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Cyclones are an outstanding 12-1 ATS mark, good for 92% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 24 or more points, having the same or fewer turnovers, and installed as a road dog against a conference foe.

No 8 Penn State vs Indiana Hoosiers
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

3:30 PM EST, October 24th, 2020

The Lions have won 22 of the previous 23 meetings with the Hoosiers by an average score of 35-21 since 1993. However, the Lions betting record is 12-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets.

The Hoosiers only win this series was a 44-24 win and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since that win, the Hoosiers have lost the last six games and have posted a 2-3-1 ATS mark.

The last two games have been highly competitive between these programs. In 2018, the Lions clawed their way to a 33-28 win but failed to cover the number as 14-point favorites in Bloomington. In 2019, the Lions hosted the Hoosiers in Happy Valley and had another challenging contest escaping with a 34-27 win but failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites. So, the short betting line for this matchup is not a surprise given the recent history between these programs.

The Lions are a definite contender for the College Football Playoff (CFP) this season. Like the previous five seasons in the B-10’s East Division, the first step along the CFP path for the Lions will lead through the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines.

Currently, in the East Division, the Buckeyes are the favorites with futures odds of -200. The Lions find themselves in second place in the futures standings and are getting +350 at many sportsbooks. The Wolverines are in third and are getting +450 in the futures market. So, those futures lines reflect how much better the Buckeyes are than the Lions and Wolverines. Despite this fact, betting the Lions to win the East Division is a strong wager to make.

The Buckeyes project to be an excellent team, but upsets frequently occur in college football. The Lions returns 15 starters from a team that went 11-2 straight-up (SU), 7-6 ATS, and finished at No 9 in the final AP Top 25 poll. Eight of those starters are on offense, including quarterback Sean Clifford, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and four-of-five offensive linemen. The team elected eight captains in Clifford, Freiermuth, center Michal Menet, defensive end Shaka Toney, safety Lamont Wade, linebacker Jesse Luketa, safety Jonathan Sutherland, and punter/kicker Jordan Stout. The Lions possess excellent team leadership, experience, and talent that makes them a contender to win the Big Ten Conference this season.

The machine learning models have many projections using several performance measures that overwhelmingly favor the Lions to win this matchup by double-digits.

The Lions have one of the most balanced and explosive offensives in the nation. They are expected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of 6.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. In previous home games installed as favorites and meeting these measures has earned the Lions a perfect 11-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS mark for 82% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points as a Best Bet.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers
8:09 Noon EST, Game 3
7-Star Best Bet on the Los Angele Dodgers
Dodgers to win the WS – if you did not get it perior to Game 1
Clayton Kershaw to win the MVP

Game 3 of the 2020 World Series takes place tonight at the neutral site Global Life Field in Arlington Texas. Walker Beuhler gets the ball for the Dodgers whle the Rays counter with Charlie Morton.

The Rays led the Majors in the dubious offensive strikeout category averaging 10.7 per game. The Dodgers are 156-75 SU for 68% winning bets when facing an opponent that strikes out an average of 7.5 or more times-per-game spanning the last two seasons.

Beuhler has nor faced one batter on the Rays roster and this is a huge advantage for him given his arsenal of dominating pitchers.

The Dodgers have faced Morton with 83 plate appearances in total batting just 0.208 with a below average 83.3 exit velocity and an 8 degree launch angle. These are poor stats, but the experience of having already faced him and additional video study will give the lineup an edge. Mookie Betts has plenty of scouting info to share having faced with the most with 27 plate appearances batting 0.306 and striking out just once.

Buehler throws 96-97 MPH fastballs that above average late and heavy sink action. Batters whiff on 28% of his pitches and he nearly always works ahead in the count. The heavy sink action is the main reason he gets 37% of his outs via groundballs. Only 6.5% of his pitches see a hitter get the sweet spot squared up on the ball.

The Dodgers led the Majors scoring an average of 5.9 runs-per-game and have averaged 6.1 runs-per-game against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rays averaged 4.7 RPG on the season and against right-handed starting pitching.

The Machine Learning Models predict that Beuhler will pitch a minimum of six innings, the Dodgers offense will have at least one multiple-run inning.  In past games in which the Dodgers were favored by no more than -160 and met or exceeded the pair of performance measures has led to a 37-10 SU record for 79% winning bets and a 36% ROI, and 36-11 on the Run Line for 77% winning bets and a whopping 73% ROI.  In games played over the last three seasons.

Tulsa vs South Florida

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

This betting system supports Tulsa and has earned a solid 82-41 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on road favorites between 10 and 20 points

2.       Facing a host with a struggling defense allowing 31 or more PPG

3.       and after two games in which 60 or more points were scored by both teams in each game.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. Tulsa is an outstanding 42-4 SU record and 33-12-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points installed as a road favorite and 5-0 ATS since 2016.

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 22, 2020
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.

The NFC East Division is a horror show with the Dallas Cowboys getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and remain in first place with an embarrassing 2-4 straight-up (SU) record. The Philadelphia Eagles have won once while losing four games, including a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles trail the Cowboys by a ½ game in the standings during the Washington Football Team, and New York Giants sport 1-5 SU records and trail by one game. So, a win by any of these inept teams would vault them into a tie for first place.

In light of how badly the Cowboys played in a 38-10 SU loss to the Arizona Cardinals, any of the four teams can win the NFC East with a losing record. The Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 when head coach Doug Pederson opted to play for the tie and not the win. However, that decision to avoid a loss at all costs looks to be prophetic now.

The Eagles are a terrible team, and any win is significantly magnified in the NFC East standings. None of these teams are poised to rip off three or more consecutive wins and when they meet against a divisional foe earning a win is akin to winning 1.5 victories. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-0 SU and against-the-spread (ATS) in Thursday Night games under Pederson. Two of the five wins have been against the Giants, who are the opponent this Thursday.

The Eagles have endured so many injuries that they fail to stack up against any opponent right now. Running back Miles Sanders, tight end Zack Ertz, offensive guard/tackle Lane Johnson, and offensive tackle Jack Driscoll are unlikely to play in this game. Ertz is listed as 'OUT' as of Tuesday morning due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the Ravens that will require at least four weeks to heal.

The Eagles starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery remain listed as questionable, and even if they do play, their overall effectiveness is unknown. The most massive personnel problem is having seven offensive linemen on the injury list or injured reserve and how best to plug new linemen into the lineup.

A scheduled game on Thursday Night forces NFL teams to execute more straightforward game plans. For the Eagles, this is a blessing given all the inexperienced backup players now put into starting roles. A simplistic game plan is what the Eagles need immediately to stop making many mental mistakes contributing to their losing ways. After this game, the Eagles have the Cowboys coming to town and then will play these Giants again in the Meadowlands. The Eagles must win all three games because the schedule gets rough, facing five consecutive teams with winning records. The Eagles' current form would not win any of those five games, but a 6-10 record might win the division crown if they hold the bulk of the tie-breakers.

This betting system underscores the importance of turnovers that determine the outcome of a football game. The betting system has earned a solid 56-45 SU record and 62-33-6 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are three simple requirements for this system.

1.       Bet on road teams.

2.       The road team is coming off two straight games, committing no more than one turnover in each.

3.       The host is coming off a game, having forced zero turnovers.

When the road team has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the record improves to 15-14 SU and 23-5-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning models project that the Giants will gain a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play (YPPL) and gain more YPPL than the Eagles while scoring at least 20 points. In past games in which the Giants met or exceeded these measures have earned a 66-22 SU record and 68-20 ATS record, good for 77% winning bets over the last ten seasons. When these measures combine with the Giants installed as a road dog, the record improves to 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points.

Take the NY Giants plus the points as a Best Bet.

Arkansas State vs Appalachian State
8:30 ET, October 22, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on Arkansas State

App State last played in a 52-21 win over Campbell on September 26 and have to belevie there will be rust on both the offensive and defensive units. Arkansas State are playing their fourth game in 19 days and their offense ranks among the best in the nation in flash stats, but have played a weaker schedule than the SEC teams, for instance. App State has played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State and the line is off by a TD based on the maching learning metrics.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 31-10 ATS record for 78% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. The requirements for the system are:

1.       Bet on road underdogs.  

2.       covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

3.       winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

The machine learning models predict that Arkansas State will score at least 28 points. When scoring 28 points they have earned an outstanding 70-13 SU record for 84% wins and 59-22-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. When scoring 28 or more points as a 10-point underdog has earned a 2-3 SU record, BUT a perfect 5-0 ATS mark that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

7-Star Best Bet and add no more than a 2* amount on the money line.  

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers
8:09 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Los Angele Dodgers
Dodgers to win the WS
Clayton Kershaw to win the MVP

Ok, so we are getting to a third World Championship series with the NHL and NBA having successfully completed their seasons amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The Dodgers are the pick and will win the series in 6 games. Kershaw to finally rid himself of all of the demons of playoffs past and right in time for the Halloween season.

The Dodgers are well-supported by this betting system that has earned a 46-20 record SU and 33-22-1 Run Line record and a 31% ROI since 2004. Bet on favorites of -110 and greater that are starting a pitcher with a season-to-date ERA of 3.70 or lower and is coming off a game where the Bullpen threw 8 or more innings.

Kershaw has been excellent this season and postseason posting a 2.44 ERA in 13 starts inlcuding the playoffs. Tyler Glasnow thorws 101 MPH frequently, but the movement on this pitch has declined in his recent starts. The flatness of this fastball despite its speed has led to him posting an unimpressive 5.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over his last three starts.

Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in his career against the Rays. Dodgers are 6-0 in the first game of a series facing the Rays. Kershaw has allowed a 0.76 batting average, 0.108 OBP, ansd 0.120 slugging percentage to the current members of the Rays in their respective careers spanning 60 at bats. He has allowed one double, one home run, and a total of nine hits.

 The machine learning models project that Kershaw will complete more innings than Glasnow and the Dodgers will have at least 1 multiple run inning (MRI). In past games in which the Dodgers met or exceeded these measures has earned them a 256-34 record for 88% wins and a 35% ROI and 225-65 on the run line for 78% winning bets and a 53% ROI in games played since 2016. When Kershaw has been the starter in these games the Dodgers are 170-22 SU for 89% wins and a 34% ROI, and a 144-48 Run Line mark for 75% wins and a juicy 50% ROI.

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
1:00 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Denver Broncos

This line was as high as 10-points and has been steadily moving lower despite the majority of tickets still jumping on the home favorite Patriots.

This NFL betting system supports the Broncos and has earned an outstanding 70% ATS on a 44-19-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. Play on underdogs facing an opponent that is coming off a game with a -3 or worse turnover margin.

The Broncos have the best run defense in the NFL and are only second to the Bucs in total defense.  Stopping the run, is key to defeating the Patriots given that they rank 21st in the NFL in overall passing.

The machine learning projections call for the Patriots to not have more than 230 passing yards and that the Broncos will have fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Broncos met or exceeded thes measures as a road dog has seen them earn a solid 14-10 SU record for 58% wins and 18-5-1 ATS for 78% winning bets that covered by an average of 7.7 points.

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Chicago Bears

The Panthers defense has been awful this season ranking 27th overall in the NFL based on my numbers. The flash numbers may indicate a different picture but that one is a smoke and mirrors type. The Bears have been far better than them on defense ranking 6th-best overall and have shown excellent tackling of players in space too. I also have them ranked with the 4th-best pass rush in the NFL as well. They rank 15th with 11 sacks, but they have not been forced to use the blitz to generate pressure on the QB or to get penetration up field. Their defenswive line has been playing quite well and wht the unit ranks fifth in the NFL allowing 465 yards-after-the-catch.

DL Brent Urban, drafted in 2014, is having his best season and combined with Kamil Mack have been great run stoppers. Urbamn is listed as questionable for this game, but is expectd to play. Bilal Nichols has played on 187 snaps and can run a 4.9 Forty and has been getting better each week.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Bears in road games  are 32-11 SU for 74% wins and 35-6-2 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points when they held an opponent to fewer than 230 passig yards and had fewer turnovers.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020

Bet on Bad NFL Road Teams

There are two betting systems that support the winless Falcons in this road game against the Vikings. The first one has earned a solid 113-69-2 against-the-spread for 62% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements focus on offensive and defensive scoring.

1.         Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

2.         Their opponents have outscored them by seven or more points-per-game.

3.         The dog is coming off back-to-back games, scoring seven or fewer points in the first half in each game.

The second NFL betting focuses on turnovers, which have a huge correlation to wins and losses for any football team. The system has earned a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets spanning the last five seasons and has four requirements.

1.         Bet on underdogs, including pick-em.

2.         The team is mistake-free, averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

3.         The opponent has a defense that forces an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers.

4.         The opponent is coming off two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover.

The Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick:

The Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been declared ‘OUT’ for this game, suffering from a groin injury. He is a massive part of the Vikings offense and will give the Falcons an even greater chance of winning this game.

The machine learning models project that the Falcons will out gain the Vikings by at least 100 total yards and will score at least 24 points. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 52-5 straight-up (SU) record good for 91% wins and a 49-8 ATS record good for 86% winning bets covered the number an average of 14 points. The Falcons finally hold on to a lead and win the game.  

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide

8:00 PM EST, October 17, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Georgia Bulldogs

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 34-13 ATS record good for 72% winning bets and 27 of the 34 ATS wins covered the spread by at least 7.5 points. The requirements are to underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a double-digit win over a conference rival and is facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 34 points or more.

The machine learning models project that the Bulldogs will score a minimum of 27 points and gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards. In past games in which the Bulldogs met or exceeded these performance measures in road games has produced a 23-3 SU recpord for 89% wins and 19-7 ATS record for 73% winning bets since 2010; 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

Nick Saban is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in home games installed as 7-point or smaller favorite as the coach of the Tide.

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers
Game 6 NLCS
4:38 PM EST, October 17, 2020

10-Star on the Dodgers

Here is a betting system that has earned a 67-37 record good for 65% wins pver the last 20 seasons. Bet on teams in playoff games with a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season and is facing an opponent that is a solid scoring team averaging 5.0 or more runs-per-game.  

The Dodgers are 42-13 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.

Mississippi vs Arkansas
3:30 PM EST, October 17, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Arkansas Razorbacks

Razorbacks are 25-12 ATS in home games facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards-per-game.

This system has gone 35-10 ATS  78% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet pn any team that is facing an opponent that is getting outscored by 7 or more PPG and has scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games.

The machine learning models project that the Razorbacks will score at least 28 points and gain average of 6.9 YUPPL. In past home games in which the Razorbacks met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them an outstanding 17-8 ASTS record for 68% winning bets and a 7-1 ATS 89% record when facing an SEC foe.

Louisville vs Notre Dame
2:20 PM EST, October 17, 2020

Scott Satterfield’s offense may not be very efficient, but it sure is explosive. The Cardinals are a top-12 team in passing and rushing explosiveness but rank in the bottom half of college football in Passing and Rushing Success Rate.

The inconsistencies on offense can really be boiled down to their offensive line play, as they’ve allowed 14 sacks and 40 tackles for loss in their first four games.

The Cards have done most of their damage through the air with quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a legit dual-threat QB, but he’s regressed from last year. Last season, Cunningham averaged 11.2 yards per attempt, but this year, he’s dropped all the way down to 8.0. He’s also only completing 58.9% of his passes, so this is a game in which I see him, having a monster game.

Notre Dame is 1-12 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 or more points.

Here is a betting system that has earned a 38-11 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet on any team with 16 or more returning starters and has lost their last two games.

Auburn vs South Carolina
12:00 Noon EST
7-Star Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers

In the Tiger’s last trip to Columbia in 2011, the No 10 Gamecocks were upset by an unranked Tigers squad 16-13. The Tigers are 3-0 straight-up (SU) and 2-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in Columbia, 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS at home, and 3-1-1 SU and ATS in neutral site games facing the Gamecocks.

This college football betting system supports the Tigers and has earned an outstanding 77-34-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. More recently, the system has achieved a 7-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the previous three seasons.

There are three requirements for this system. The first is to bet on any team averaging 280 to 330 offensive YPG on the season. The second and third is the opponent gaining 390 to 440 YPG on the season and coming off a game gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-play. That is all there is to track this highly profitable betting system.

The Tigers are -3 points via Bet MGM. The machine learning models project that the Tigers will rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards and score 28 points. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded this pair of performance measures has led them to a 74-5 SU mark for 94% wins and 53-23-3 ATS record and 70% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 7 points.

Taking the previous pair of performance measures and adding games in which the Tigers were a road favorite improves the results to a perfect 12-0 SU winning these games by an average of 21 points and 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 11.4 points.

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers
Game 5 NLCS
9:08 PM EST, October 12, 2020

10-Star on the Dodgers

Here is a betting system that has eanred a 25-11 record good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet against NL underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +185) that is a good offensive team scoring >=4.9 runs-per-game against a good NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA

Braves vs. Dodgers
Game 4 2020 NLCS
8:08 PM EST, October 15, 2020

7-Star play on the Dodgers

Here is a reliable betting system that has earned a solid 65-34 record for 65% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team with an above-average bullpen sporting a 3.75 ERA or lower on the season and is facing an opponent that is a strong offensive NL team scoring a minimum of 5.0 runs-per-game on the season.

The machine learning models project that the Dodgers starter Kershaw will complete at least six innings of work and that the Dodgers will have at least two multiple-run-inning. In past games in which they met or exceeded, these measures have produced a 176-16 SU record for 94.5% wins and averaged a -168 favorite bet, making the $100 bettor a whopping $26,334 over the last ten seasons and a 75-3 SU record for 96% winners and making the $100 bettor $7,063 over the last three seasons.

Rays vs Astros
Game 3 2020 NLCS
8:40 PM EST, October 14, 2020

7-Star play on the Rays

Here are a few team situations that support the Rays and work against the Astros. Rays are 16-4 (+14.0 Units and average a +128 dog) facing a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start this season. Rays are a solid 34-10 (+22.9 Units) using the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

The machine learning models project that the Rays starter Glasnow will complete at least 4 innings of work and that the Rays will have at least one multiple-run-inning. In past games in which they met or exceeded these measures has produced a 122-42 SU record for 74% wins and averaged a -137 favorite bet, making the $100 bettor a whopping $7,308 over the last three seasons.

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
7:00 PM EST, October 13, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Buffalo Bills

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 42-14 record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

The machine learning models project that the Bills will score 24 or more points and will win the turnover battle. In past games in which the Bills met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 30-2 SU record and 27-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets the last ten seasons.

Chargers vs Saints
8:15 PM EST, October 13, 2020

7-Star play on the Chargers

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 33-9 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to be on a road team that is doing well in the passing game averaging 275 passing yards-per-game (YPP) on the season and are coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt.

The machine learning models project that the Chargers will gain a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-play and will outgain their opponent by a minimum of 70 total yards. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures as a road dog, they have earned a 5-1 SU record and perfect 6-0 ATS mark covering the spread by an average of 11 points.

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers
Game 1 NLCS
8:08 PM EST, October 12, 2020

7-Star on the Dodgers

Here is a betting system that has eanred a 144-55 record good for 71% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and requires us to bet on NL favorites of at least -110 with a starter that has posted an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season and after a game in which the bullpen threw 8 or more innings.

The machine learning tools project that the Dodgers Beuhler will complete 4 or more innings and will post two or more multiple-run-innings. In past games in which the Dodgers met these performance measures they have earned a 158-10 SU mark good for 94% winning bets and a juicy return of 43% ROI.

Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
8:20 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Vikings.

I like making this a combination wager to exploit the upset by placing a 4.5* amount on the line and a 2.5-star amount on the money line. You can certainly just bet 7-star play on the spread (line) too.

Here is a money line system that has earned an solid 19-7 record for 73% winners and has made 20.1 units-perunit bet over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to on any team using the money line (MINNESOTA) that was outgained by opponent by 70 or more passing yards-per-game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt in 2 straight games.

The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score 24 or more points and will average at least 7.7 yards-per-pass-attempt. In past games played over the last 5 seasons, the Vikings have earned a 19-3-1 SU record and a 18-3-2 ATS mark good for 86% winning bets.

Miami Heat vs LA Lakers
Game 6 NBA Finals
7:30 PM EST, Sunday, October 11, 2020

The machine learning stools and models are on the Heat again. LeBron has been here before, but not many of the other teammates. LeBron knows the pressure well and it has gone bad more times than not. Butler is playing at an amazing level and the leadership has been immense to the rest of the team this entire playoff season.

 The following results match the projections produced by the models. The Lakers are 6-18 ATS when shooting between 43 and 47% form the field this season; 15-29-2 ATS for 34% when the opponent has shot 35% or better from beyond the arc. Lakers are 9-24-2 ATS when allowing 107 or more points and allowing 35% or better 3-point shooting this season.

Heat are 43-11 SU and 35-17 ATS for 67% when scoring 107 or more points and making 35% or more of their 3-point shots this season; 10-2 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in this year’s playoffs.

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays
Game 1 ALCS
7:37 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star on the Rays

Snell is the man we are looking to complete a minimum of 5 innings and pitch more innings than the Astros starter, who is McCullers. The models also project that the Rays will have at least 1 multiple run innings. IN past games in which the Rays starter completed more innings of work than the opponent’s starter and the Rays had a t least 1 MRI has seen them go on to a 63-17 SU record for 79% winning bets and produycing a 31% return-on-investment (RI) this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
1:00 PM EST, October 11, 2020

7-Star Titan on the JAX Jaguars

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 42-14 record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Simple, highly profitable and easy to track.

The machine learning models project that the Jaguars will score 24 or more points and gain a minimum of 250 passing yards. I past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them earn a 9-6 SU record and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets the last five seasons. The Texans are just 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS for 28% wins when they have allowed these measures in games played over the last five seasons.

R

Boston College vs Pittsburgh
4:00 PM EST, October 10, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Pitt Panthers

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 100-50 ATS record gopod for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams, which is obviously Pittsburgh, in a game in which both teams have won 60 to 80% of their games on the season and is now facing a host that is coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a conference rival.  BC lost 26-22 to UNC as 14.5-point dogs last week.

Pitt defense will be on display in this matchup and the machine learning models project that BC will gain less than 5 yards per play and not exceed 100 rushing yards. In past games in which Pitt met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 33-7 SU mark and 28-10 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2006; 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State
3:30 PM EST, October 10, 2020

7-Star Titan Best Bet on the Cyclones

Coming off its first win over Oklahoma in Ames, Iowa, since 1960, No. 24 Iowa State is looking to keep its focus against a visiting Texas Tech team that is trying to find a way to win. In the last two weeks, Texas Tech (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) dropped an overtime decision to then-No. 8 Texas and then squandered a fourth-quarter lead at Kansas State.

The machine learning models project that ISU will average a minimum of 9 yards-per-pass-attempt and will score at least 31 points. In past games in which the Cyclones met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 15-3 SU record and 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets since 2006.

Florida vs Texas A&M
7-Star Titan Best Bet on the Florida Gators.

This betting system has earned a 138-83 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons and serves the active bettor well. It has produced a profit of $4,300 for the $100 bettor for a 19% return on investment (ROI). This betting system has four parameters that work together to produce consistent returns over the past 10 seasons.  The requirements are to bet against teams in the regular or postseason that were a bowl or playoff team from last year and are coming off a loss of 14 to 31 points as a ranked team.

The Aggies are coming off a loss as a ranked team to No 2 Alabama by the final score of 52-24 losing by 28 points and failing to cover the spread as 18-point road underdogs. The loss did not cause the Aggies much damage in the rankings this week as they find themselves positioned at No 14.

Tweaking this system produces a 17-7 SU record and 15-9 ATS mark good for 62% winning bets with a ranked team coming off a 14 to 31 point loss to a team ranked better than them, and is now facing another team ranked better than them in the current AP poll.

This awesome money line betting system has earned an outstanding 56-34 ATS record for 62% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,900. The requirements of this money line system are to bet on a home team using the money line off a blowout loss by 21 or more points to a conference rival that has five or more defensive returning starters than the current opponent.

This money line system has earned an 85-21 record for 80% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on a road team using the money line that is an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards-per-play, after two consecutive games in which they gained 6.3 or more yards-per-play in each of them and is now facing an opponent with a struggling defense that is allowing at least 6.25 yards-per-play.

The machine learning models project that the Gators will score 28 or more points and average at least nine yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Gators met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to earn a 40-1 SU record for 98% wins and a 32-5-2 ATS mark good for 87% winning bets that have covered by an average of 10.4 points.

When the Aggies have played games in which they allowed 28 or more points and more than 9 yards per pass attempt they have gone onto a miserable 5-27 SU record for 16% wins and 7-23-2 ATS record for 23% winning bets.

Virginia Tech vs UNC
12:00 PM EST, October 10, 2020

7-Star Play on the V-Tech Hokies

Let us start with a betting system that has earned a solid 76-35 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that has a strong ground attack averaging a minimum of 4.8 yards-per-rush and are coming off a game in which they out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 150 yards and are now facing an average rusinmg team averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 yards-per-rush. Simply said, Tech has the better ground attach and will use that strength to control the clock and dominate time-of-possession.

The machine learning models project that the Hokies will gain at least 5 yards-per-rush and will have fewer turnovers than UNC. In past games in which the Hokies met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned a 21-1 SU record and 19-3 ATS for 86.4% winning bets.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 PM EST, October 9, 2020
AL Playoffs LDS Best of 5, Game 5

7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays

In case you were wondering this is not the first time I have had a 7-star graded Titan on the same team in four straight games. It is rare, of course, but not unusually rare.

Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 77-55 record good for 59% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on all underdogs between 115 and 165 that is playing with revenge having lost their last game to the current opponent and is facing a starting pitcher who allows 1 or more HR-per-game on the season.

So, the machine learning models project that the Rays are going to outhit the Yankees by at least three and will have at least two multiple run innings (same as last night) In games played installed as a dog the Rays are an amazing 135-6 SU for 96% wins and a 127% ROI; they are also 98-1 on the Run Line earning a 68% ROI.

Both starters Cole and Glasnow are working on three days of rest. Playoff teams in Game 5 or later in a playoff series and are the dog have earned a 5-5 SU record averaging a +145 dog wager good for an 20% ROI and 6-3 using the Run Line for 67% winning bets anmd a 15% ROI.

So, consider splitting your wager into 50% on the money line and 50% on the Run Line backing the Tampa Bay Rays

7-Star Best bet Titan on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Louisville Cardinals vs Georgia Tech
7:00 PM EST, October 9, 2020

7-Star Upset Alert on Georgia Tech

What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?

My Machine learning models project that G-Tech will average 5.5 or more rushing yards-per-attempt and score 28 or more points. In past games in which Tech met or exceeded this par of performance measures they have gone to a 37-7 SU record and 32-9-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 2011; in home conference games installed as a dog they have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2011. Take Tech.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago IL
8:20 PM EST, October 8, 2020

What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?

My Machine learning models project that Brady will throw for more than 250 yards and that the Bucs will gain a minimum of 8.0 yards-per-pass attempt. When the Bucs have met or exceeded these performance measures in road games they have earned a 8-6 SU record and a 11-3 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 PM EST, October 8, 2020
AL Playoffs LDS Best of 5, Game 4

7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays

Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 156-97 record good for 62% wining bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements for this betting system is to bet on all teams with the money line that is ranging between plus 125 to -125 it is an average offensive team scoring 4.4 to 4.9 runs per game on the season and has been a bit on the cold side batting 250 or lower spanning their last 20 games it is now facing a starter in the American League with an ERA between 4.7 and 5.7 on the season.

So, the machine learning models project that the Rays are going to outhit the Yankees by at least three and will have at least two multiple run innings (same as last night) In games played installed as a dog the Rays are an amazing 135-6 SU for 96% wins and a 127% ROI; they are also 98-1 on the Run Line earning a 68% ROI.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 PM EST, October 7, 2020
AL Playoffs LDS Best of 5, Game 3

7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays

Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 43-16 record good for 72% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that is lined between -130 and +130 of pick-em and has won 15 of their last 20 games and is now facing an opponent having won three exact games of their last 4 games.

Tanaka is vulberable to the Tampa Bay Rays and many have had strong success when facing him. Kevin Kiermaier (12-for-39), Zunino (6-for-22) and Meadows (5-for-19) each have hit two homers against Tanaka.

Right-hander Charlie Morton will start for the Rays in his first appearance since Sept. 25. While he has yet to pitch in the playoffs this year, he is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, and he is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in nine all-time playoff appearances (eight starts).

What I like most about Morton is that only 8% of baters have barreled up one of his offerings and Tananka has had 11% of his pitches barreled up on the good part of the bat. This does not look like a huge difference, but it is as a 1/16 of an inch can be the difference between a caught fly ball and a double in the gap. Tanaka is a carft-type of pitcher throwing FB just 30% of the time and using his slider 37% of the time as his dominant offering. His fdast below is a MLB-average 92 MPH complimented by an 84 MPH slider.

Morton averages 94 MPH on the FB and with a lot more sinking and arm-side tailing action. He has an exceptional curve and will pitch to batters on bot sides of the plate in the sma emanner, not adjusting slider for change depending on LH or RH batter. Morton line drive percentage is a solid 24% of all pitches thrown and is vastly better than Tanaka’s 31% line drive rate.

So, the machine learning models project that the Rays are going to outhit the Yankees by at least three and will have at least two multiple run innings. In games played installed as a dog the Rays are an amazing 134-6 SU for 96% wins and a 127% ROI; they are also 97-1 on the Run Line earning a 63% ROI.

Take the Tampa Bay Rays.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat
ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
9:00 PM EST, October 6, 2020.

Game 4 takes place in the NBA Finals and oh how the results of Game 3 have changed the look and feel of this series. The Lakers were out to a 2-0 series lead and Miami was without two of their best players in Games 2 and 3. Yet, the Heat’s strong forward, Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 19.9 points-per-game, 6.7 rebounds-per-game, and 10.2 assist-per-game for the series, found a way to lead his team to a huge Game 3 win Tuesday Night.

I went on record stating on Twitter and linked to the Game 3 NBA article found here on Odds, that there was never a better time to bet aggressively on a team that was down 0-2 to the NBA Finals than right now with the Heat. Currently, the Lakers are favored by 7.5-points at all the major sportsbooks with MGM offering the Heat at +7.5 +105 vig. For the series you can get the Heat at +850 and +1100 for Jimmy Butler to win the MVP at MGM as the screenshot below shows.

That is a great question and the answer consists of two parts. The first part is the fact that there has been three NBA Champions that had three different high scorers in each of the first three playoff rounds. The Miami Heat have become the fourth team and strongly believe they are a real team with a great floor general in Butler and the vastly better coaching in Spoelstra. I was completely sold when near the end of Game 3 Butler was seen saying “They know they are in trouble” repeatedly as he walked off the court toward his teammates during a timeout.

This money line betting system has earned a solid 104-89 betting record good for 55% winning bets and has made the Dime player a profit of $37,200 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on any team using the money line in a game involving two teams that are allowing opponents to shoot between 43.5 and 46% from the field, and is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or fewer turnovers-per-game and is facing a team that forces an average of 14 to 16 turnovers per game in games played after the 41st one has been completed and including the playoff rounds.

The machine learning models confirm the bet on the Heat tonight and with the win would bring this series to an even two wins apiece and reduce the Finals to a best-of-three match.  The day off until Game 5 give the Heat a chance to get Goran Dragic back into the lineup. He is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game and I do not expect him top play. However, I would not be surprised to see the Heat center Bam Adebayo get some minutes tonight. So, these projections do not include either player in the game tonight just as they did for last night’s game.

The Heat are projected to shoot above 45% form the field, make at least 14 3-point shots, and make more 3-point shots than the Lakers. In past games in which the Heat met or exceeded these projections they went on to earn a 59-16 straight-up record and 56-15-4 against the spread (ATS) record good for 79% winning bets since 1995 and 35-10 SU for 78% wins and 31-10-4 ATS for 77% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The Lakers are a money losing 12-57 SU for 17% wins and 9-59-1 ATS for a miserable 13% winning bets that failed to cover by an average of 11.5 points since 1995 and 8-24 SU for 25% wins and 7-25 ATS for 22% winning bets that failed to cover by an average of 9 points since 2017 when they have allowed an opponent to meet or exceed those performance measures.

All playoff teams that allowed their opponents to meet or exceed those performance measures are 15-64 SU for 19% wins losing by an average of 13 points and 14-63-2 ATS for 18% winning bets that failed to cover the spread by an average of 10 pints.

Take the Miami Heat as a Best Bet NBA in Game 4 of the NBA Finals

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
8:10 PM EST, October 6, 2020
AL Playoffs LDS Best of 5, Game 2

7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays

Let us begin with a supporting betting system that has earned a 105-60 record good for 64% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on any team that is facing a poor fielding team that has averaged 0.75 or more errors-per-game and after scoring 8 runs in three consecutive games.

Rays have Tyler Glasnow on the hill and he is in solid form and superior form to his counterpart in Deivi Garcia, who posrts a 7.02 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings of work. Glasnow has posted consistent performances over his last three starts with a 2.65 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3-0 record including 4 BB and 26 strikeouts spanning 17 innings of work.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
8:07 PM EST, October 5, 2020
AL Playoffs LDS Best of 5, Game 1

7-Star AL Upset Alert on the Tampa Bay Rays

Let us begin with a supporting betting system that ahs earned a 69-53 record for 57% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $3,385 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on all underdogs between +110 and +165 that have won eight or more of their past 10 games and is now facing an opponent that has won two fo their last three games. In playoff games the underdogs has earned a 5-4 record making 2.25 units or $225 per $100 wager and a very nice 25% return-on-investment since 2015.

Rays have Blake Snell on the hill, who has posted a 5-2 record in 12 starts with a 2.91 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 20 BB, and 72 Ks on the season. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1-1 record with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, 0.900 WHIP including 6 BB and 22 Ks spanning 16 2/3 innings of work. Bucs have owned the Yankees with an 8-2 record this season. Yankee starter Cole is a stud, no doubt, but is 2-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in nine starts against the Rays

I also like the fact that Snell works down in the zone and throws elite off-speed pitches to keep batters constantly off balance. He has averaged a 6.6 launch angle and 88 MPH exit velocity. This style of pitching works well against the power hitting Yankees lineup. Further, Cole’s stats look impressive, but batted balls have averaged a 17 degree launch angle and 91 MPH exit velocity. Moreover, of all batted balls in play off of Cole’s pitches, an alarming 47% have been ‘hard hit’.

NE Patriots vs KC Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, KC, MO
7:05 PM EST, October 5, 2020

7-Star play on the Patriots

Betting against the Patriots has not paid off well while Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the Patriots. The Patriots are 13-18 straight-up (SU), but 19-12 against-the-spread (ATS) for 61.3% winning bets as an underdog of more than 3 points and less than 10 points since the 2000 season. If we add the ‘site’ parameter to this database query we learn that the Patriots are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in home games and 11-15 SU and 15-11 ATS for 58% winning bets since 2000.

Drilling into the data a bit further and using the type of surface the game is being played on reveals more supporting evidence. The Patriots are 3-5 SU and 5-1 ATS in games played on artificial turf under Belichick and installed as a 3 to 10 point underdog and 10-13 SU covering 61% of those 23 games for a 14-9 ATS record when the game is on grass. Arrowhead Stadium is a grass surface stadium.

Even the month when the game is played brings to light just how good betting the Patriots under Belichick as an underdog has been for backers. The chart below shows that his best month is in October, in which the Patriots have earned a solid 65-18 SU record and covered 68% of those games ATS for a 55-26-2 record.

Then the cheesecake appears. Now, that Cam has COVID-19 and will not be playing the line has made the Patriots a double-digit underdog. Belichick is 8-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in games where his Patriots team has been installed as 10 or more point underdog. 6-0 SU and ATS the last six games in this incredible stretch of games.

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM EST, October 4, 2020

Last week, on Monday Night Football, we got to see the Kansas Chiefs and their head coach and former Eagle head coach Andy Reed take offensive play-calling to a new level of creativity. Current Eagles skipper Doug Pederson used to call games in a similar creative style and at times with a whole lot more risk. Those days seem to be decades ago for the Eagle fans and without the right personnel, there is little reason to expect anything more from the Eagles on both sides of the ball.

The Eagles rank 24th in the NFL gaining 1009 total offensive yards good for 334 yards-per-game. There are five teams in the NFL that have gained 1,300 total offensive yards ore more. The NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys lead the NFL gaining 1,472 total yards and averaging 491 yards-per-game. There is one category that the Eagles lead in the NFL rankings and it is not one to be admired. They have turned the ball over to the opponent 8 times and so far, have turned the ball over on 21% of their drives this season. No NFL team can win games with performance measures this bad.

Here is a tremendous money line betting system that supports the 49ers and will cause even greater depression for the Eagle fans. This system has gone 27-1 for 96% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line and are a mistake-free team that are committing 0.75 or fewer turnovers-per-game and after a game earning a +2 turnover advantage and now facing an opponent with a -0.75 turnover differential.

The machine learning models project that the 49ers will score at least 28 points, will gain a minimum of 6 yards-per-play, and will have fewer turnovers than the Eagles. The 49ers are 81-8 straight-up (SU), and 67-22 against-the-spread (ATS) for 75% winning bets since 1990 when scoring 28 or more bets. Further, the 49ers are a stellar 21-2 SU and 18-5 ATS for 78% winning bets in home games when they score 28 or more points and average a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-play. Last, they are a 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS for 88% wining bets when they have met or exceeded the projected all three of the performance measures. Take the San Francisco 49ers as a Best Bet NFL Pick.

Miami Heat vs LA Lakers
Game 3 NBA Finals

8:30 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Miami Heat

In the history of the playoffs a team that had a different high-scorer in each of the last three playoff rounds are 3-0 in the Championship Finals. The Heat accomplished that feat and if there was ever a time to roll the dice and get an incredibly great price for futures prop in the NBA Finals it would be right now. I love the Heat on a futures bet to win the Finals. Yes, it is a long shot, but we are getting paid to assume that risk and one that I doi think is quite possible.

The machine learning reveals that the Heat are 134-17 SU and 120-27-4 ATS 82% when they score at least 107 points and shoot at least 45% from the field and will make more 3-point shots than the opponent.

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
4: 25 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best bet on the Raiders
7-Star best bet on the ‘UNDER’

3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’

Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season.

Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak.

The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points.

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
4: 25 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best bet on the Raiders
7-Star best bet on the ‘UNDER’

3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’

Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season.

Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak.

The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points.

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
1:00 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star graded play on the Minnesota Vikings

Both teams are 0-3 and they both know that only four teams have ever made the playoffs after an 0-3 start and none after an 0-4 start. This betting system supports the Vikings and has earned a 28-7 ARTS mark good for 82% winning bets since 1990. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are coming off a home cover ATS, but lost the game SU and has not won a game on the season.

This system works against the Texans and has earned a 42-16 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after they posted two consecutive games in which their defense forced zero turnovers.

The machine learning models project that the Vikings will score between 24 and 30 points and will pass for a minimum of 225 yards. In past games in which the Vikings met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a solid 13-4 SU and ATS record good for 76% wining bets  over the last five seasons. In the same manner, the Texans are 2-7 SU and ATS when they have allowed these measures to an opponent since 2016.

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best Bet Titan on the Dallas Cowboys

The Public is on the Cowboys at a price of -5 and that is not surprising given that the Browns have been a dysfunctional franchise for most of the past decade. 68% of more than 1200 betting tickets that I track from 20 different sportsbooks are on the Cowboys and 87% of the total money bet on this game. So, we have the public and the larger betting professionals on the same side. This is not unusual, and it is not reflecting an extreme betting flow that would warrant a contrarian bet supporting the Browns.

The Cowboys could have been 0-3 on the season had it not been for an incredible comeback on the road against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. It can be reasoned too, that they might have been 3-0 if a few breaks had gone there way. The one certainty is the Cowboys offense is quite good and will be difficult for any defense to contain this season.

The Cowboys have tallied 1,472 yards or 490 yards-per-game and ranks best in the NFL by 100 total yards over the second-best Green Bay Packers. While it is unlikely that the Cowboys will be able to maintain a near-500 yards-per-game offense, they will have few games in which they will not gain a minimum of 375 offensive yards. Despite all the yards gained they have scored 88 points that place them 8th in scoring offense.

Turnovers at critical points in scoring drives have been a problem for the Cowboys, but one that can be corrected. They rank first in the league having run 236 offensive plays on37 total drives. They have suffered a turnover on 16.2% of their drives ranking fifth-worst in the NFL. By way of comparison, there are four teams in the NFL that have a turnover percentage under 5% of their total drives and includes the Kansas City Chiefs (3.4%), the San Francisco 49ers (3.2%), the Tennessee Titans (3.0%), and the Green Bay Packers, who have yet to have a turnover. The Cowboys will have a greater focus on ball handling and as a result, their scoring drive numbers will increase while the turnover measures decline.

The betting lines imply a Cowboys win by the final score of 31-25 given the 56-point total and that the Cowboys are 5-point home favorites. The models project that Dallas will score 28 or more points in this game. The Cowboys are a solid 50-15 straight-up (SU) and 47-18 against-the-spread (ATS) for 72% winning bets when scoring 28 or more points in games played since 2010. In games in which they scored 28 or more points and were installed as 3.5 to 7.5-point favorites, they are 27-6 SU and 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 6.4 points.

Since 2010, the Browns are 1-16 SU and 5-11-1 ATS in games as an underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points and allowed 28 or more points. Take the Dallas Cowboys as an NFL Best Bet minus the points.

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST, October 4, 2020

Here is a solid and simple betting system that has earned an 83-43 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to be on underdogs that are faincg an opponent off a SU home win during the first four weeks of the regular season.

The Machine learning models project that the Dolphins will score at least 24 points and gain a minimum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which the Dolphins bet or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 9-2 SU record and 8-2 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2016.

Virginia Cavaliers vs No 1 Clemson Tigers
Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
8:00 PM EST, October 3, 2020
Clemson -28 O/U: 55 points

The top-ranked Clemson Tigers, who are 2-0 overall and 1-0 in the ACC host the Virginia Cavaliers, who own a 1-0 overall and ACC Conference record. The two teams had not faced eachother for six consecutive seasons until last seasons’ ACC Championship game and now 10 months later face eachother again. The Tigers simply dominated the Cavaliers on both sides of the ball in their 62-17 ACC Championship win and covered the spread as 29.5-point favorites quite easily.

Virginia trailed only by 7 points at the end of a 14-7 first quarter, but from there on the game was controlled by the Tigers. Clemson returning QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 302 yards completing 16 of 22 passes including 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions. All combined, he earned a ridiculously high QB rating of 248. Overall, the Tigers outgained the Cavaliers by 232 offensive yards and forced three turnovers and did not turn the ball over.

I have found over my 26 years of sports data research, predictions, and picks that meaningful data points can be obtained from look at the previous game’s boxes score. Hence, the wording of What’s Next for a team coming off specific performance measures.

The Cavaliers are coming off a strong start to their 2020 season with a 30-20 win over Duke University and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home favorites. They gained 185 rushing yards on 46 attempts for a 4.02 yards-per-rush ratio. QB Brennan Armstrong had an inconsistent game throwing for 269 yards but completing 53% of his 45 pass attempts for 24 completed passes. He averaged just 4.9 yards-per-pass-attempt including 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

So, what’s next for the Cavaliers coming off this game based on their performances. The Cavaliers as road double-digit underdogs are 6-33 straight-up (SU) for 15% wins. 19-18-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 51.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ is 20-19 for 51% in games played following a game in which they averaged 4.2 or fewer rushing yards-per-attempt since 2006. Not much revealed one way or the other from just that alone. If we filter the data to include games over the last five seasons the Cavaliers are 0-12 SU, 7-5 ATS for 58% winning bets, and the ‘UNDER’ has earned a 7-5 winning record.

Combine Cavalier Rushing Yards and Turnover Margin

When combining rushing yards per attempt and turnover margin the brilliant College Football database reveals that the Cavaliers are 4-7 SU for 36% wins, 4-7 ATS, and 8-3 ‘OVER’ for 73% winning bets. So, now I have a possible lean to bet the ‘OVER’. But we have only just begun to drill the data.

The Tigers are 15-4 ATS when competing against a conference foe in games played spanning the last three seasons. They had half-time leads of 14 or more points in their last two games. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS after leading their previous two games by 14 or more points at the half in games played over the last three seasons.

The Tigers offense is looking quite good noting that they scored 20 or more points in the first half of each of the first two games this season. So, the Tigers are a 13-3 ATS following two straight games scoring 20 or more points in the first half in games played over the last three seasons.

So, here we get into a formidable team situation supporting a bet on the Tigers. Teams that ranked in the Top-5 and did not cover the spread in their last two games and are now favored by 20 or more points and facing an opponent off a SU win are an impressive 21-1 SU for 96% wins, 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ 10-9-1 for 53% in games played since 2006.

What Does the Machine Learning Project for This Game?

The machine learning models predict a near certainty that the Tigers will score 28 or more points in this game. Teams ranked 5 or higher in the polls and score 28 points are 743-74 SU for 91% wins, 490-295-16 ATS for 62.4% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has earned a solid 404-267-20 record in game splayed since 2006.  More specifically, when the Tigers are 47-1 SU for 98% wins, 32-14-1 ATS for a money-making 70% winning bets, and an even 23-23-1 record on the total in games played since 2016. 

Take the Clemson Tigers and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet

No 7 Auburn Tigers vs No 4 Georgia Bulldogs
Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
7:30 PM EST, October 3, 2020
Georgia -6.5   o/u: 45

This is a matchup of nationally ranked SEC Conference Titans squaring off in Athens, GA Saturday Night with a lot on the line.  Speaking of the line, the Georgia Bulldogs are a 6.5-point home favorite, but the early betting flows sees the professionals backing the Auburn Tigers. The number of betting tickets is even at 50-50, but 75% of the money is on the Tigers and the line will move to a price of 6 points.

The Tigers are 21-17 straight-up for 55% wins, but a money-burning 14-23 ATS for 38% winning bets when coming off a game allowing 14 or fewer points. The news from the database queries improves to 12-8 SU for 60% winning bets and 13-7 ATS for 65% winning bets coming off a game where the offense averaged at least 5.5 yards-per-play, had 1 or zero turnovers and play on the road against a conference foe in games played since 2010.

This money line betting system has earned an 54-57 record for just 49% winners but has averaged a +220-dog wager in making the $100 bettor a profit of $4,930 over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between +150 and +300 in a game where both teams have returned five or fewer offensive starters. Since 1990, this simple betting system has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,430. This system supports the Auburn Tigers.

The models project that the Tigers will force the Bulldogs into at least two turnovers, will have one or zero turnovers and will rush for 150 or more yards. In past games in which the Tigers met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 29-1 SU record and a 21-8-1 ATS record producing 72.4% winning bets that have covered by an average of 9.3 points.

The Tigers are 3-0 SU and ATS when on the road installed as a dog and meeting or exceeded the previously mentioned performance measures. Further, the best of the best is the fact that when the Tigers meet the projections mentioned above while playing a conference foe they are a perfect 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 16 points.

No 13 Texas A&M Aggies vs No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
3:30 PM EST, October 3, 2020
7-Star Titan on the Texas A&M Aggies

There are few matchups that are more enjoyable to watch then when two ranked teams out of the SEC Conference lock horns. This is one of them when No 13 Texas A&M Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa to face the No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide, who are favored by 17 points. Both teams are 1-0 overall and 1-0 in the SEC. The Tide got off to fast 28-3 start hosting the Missouri Tigers and coasted to the 38-19 win but failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites. The Aggies got off to unorthodox 7-5 half-time before getting control of the game in the second stanza against a determined Vanderbilt Commodores team to win 17-12 but failed to cover the spread as 25.5-point favorites.

Here is a College Football betting system that has earned a 75%-win percentage on a 39-13 against-the-spread (ATS) record over the last 10 seasons. The betting system requires us to bet on road teams that scored and allowed 17 or fewer points in their last game and are now facing a host, who led by 17 or more points at the half in their last game. Over the last three seasons this system has been a near-imperfect 10-1 ATS for 92% winning bets.

For a matchup of SEC teams, a posted total of 52-points is low scoring and does reflect the strength of both defenses in this matchup. So, the betting lines indicate a final score of 34-17 based on the Tide favored by 17 points and the posted total of 52-points. The projections call for the Aggies to hold the Tide to 28 or fewer points and not have more turnovers than the Tide.

In past games in which the Aggies met or exceeded these performance measures in SEC matchups they have earned an outstanding 24-3 SU record and a 22-3 ATS mark for 88% winning bets since 2006. When they achieved these performance measures in road SEC games, they are 12- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 12 points.

The Tide is 4-3 SU and an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home conference games when they have not scored more than 28 points and lost the turnover battle.