10* PERSONAL FAVROITE St. Louis Cardinals. Jeff Locke (0-4, 5.52 ERA) has looked horrible for Miami this year, most recently he gave up three runs off four hits and two walks over five innings in an 8-0 loss to the Mets on Wednesday. So far the southpaw has failed to complete six frames in any of his six outings and he’s also given up at least three runs in five straight trips to the hill (is 0-2 with a poor 5.79 ERA on the road as well.) Adam Wainwright (8-5, 5.17) looks like he’s finally starting to hit his stride for the Cardinals, most recently giving up two runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings in a 4-3 win over Arizona on Wednesday. Wainwright has now posted consecutive quality outings and he’s been very sharp at home all year as well with a 5-1, 2.64 record/ERA. Miami is 28-35 (-7.3 units) this season against right-handed starters, while St. Louis is 10-9 (+1.3 units) in the same position. Cardinals roll.

10* MAIN EVENT St. Louis Cardinals (RUN-LINE). Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.06 ERA) is putting together an unbelievable campaign, but Carlos Martinez (6-6, 2.88) isn’t far behind him. Scherzer most recently gave up one run off two hits with no walks across six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday. Scherzer enters this game on top form, but faces a red hot Martinez who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out ten over six frames in an unfortunate no-decision against Arizona on Tuesday. Martinez has struck out ten or more batters in four of his 16 starts this year (he’s 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA at home as well). I think this one will be decided late or in extra innings, which means I’ll gladly lay this very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Cards (RUN-LINE)

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Oakland A’s. Julio Teheran (6-6, 5.30 ERA) was coming off a career year in 2016, but so far he’s been a big disappointment this season, most recently getting rocked for seven runs off seven hits while stirking out three over three innings in a loss to the Brewers on Sunday. Teheran has now been shelled for 14 home runs over his past eight starts and while he’s been better on the road than at home this year, he’s owns a poor 5.14 ERA in all “day” games this season. Sean Manaea (7-4, 3.87) will look to take advantage of his struggling counterpart today, he most recently allowed one run off nine hits to go along with three strikeouts in an eventual 6-4 win over Houston on Tuesday. Over his last three starts Manaea has faced the Yanks and the Astros twice, so the light-hitting Braves is a much more manageable task for the lefty this afternoon (note that Manaea has been sharp in all “day” games this year as well, going 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA). I give Manaea the big nod in this matchup. A’s roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Arizona. Colorado managed the victory last night, but I like Arizona to bounce back on Saturday. Tyler Chatwood (6-8, 4.32 ERA) gave up four runs and walked eight over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Only 41 of his 88 pitches were for strikes. Chatwood has been better on the road than at hitter friendly Coors field, but he still owns a poor 77:50 K:BB. Zack Greinke (9-4, 3.08) gave up one run over five innings to go along with five K’s in a win over Philadelphia on Monday. Greinke hasn’t been perfect this season, but his 114:22 K:BB remains elite and note that he’s 7-0 with a tiny 2.68 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. Both teams have done well over the first half, but Greinke comes in on top form and has a major advantage at home this evening. Diamonbacks answer after last night’s setback.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE BALTIMORE. Tampa managed an extra innings victory last night, but I think Baltimore will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 4.00 ERA) is coming off his worst start of 2017, giving up four runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to these very Orioles last Sunday. It was reported that Odorizzi was battling a stomach issue leading up to the start. Dylan Bundy (8-6, 3.73) comes in off a gem against the Rays on Saturday, allowing three runs while striking out eight over seven innings to earn the victory. Bundy firmly put a couple of bad starts behind him with the effort and he’ll now look to build upon his solid 4-3, 3.26 record/ERA in front of the home town crowd. The Rays are just 17-22 (-2.1 units) on the road, while Baltimore is 24-14 (+9.3 units) at home. I like Bundy to outduel his counterpart. Orioles roll.

10* AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR Oakland. The Braves managed a win last night, but I think the A’s will answer on Saturday. RA Dickey (6-5, 4.63 ERA) gave up one run off five hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Brewers on Saturday. Dickey has looked a bit better of late, but his 5.7 K/9 and 1.39 WHIP are stark reminders of how much the veteran has struggled overall this season (note that he’s 1-6 with a horrible 6.88 ERA on the road as well this year.) Paul Blackburn (0-0, 0.00) has a golden opportunity in his first big league start, the 23-year old was sharp in the minors, finishing with a 3.05 ERA over 14 outings in the “hitter-friendly” Pacific Coast League. Blackburn will be looking to take advantage of the fact that the A’s are 22-17 (+5.5 units) at home this year, while the Braves are just 17-21 (-0.9 units) on the road. I like Blackburn to get the better of the struggling Dickey, A’s roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Arizona Diamondbacks. Jon Gray (0-0, 4.38 ERA) made only three apperances for the Rockies this season before hitting the DL. Gray makes his return to the line-up tonight and is clearly being “thrown to the wolves.” Gray looked brilliant at times in 2016 (10-10 with a 4.61 ERA overall) and really poor in others (just 3-8 with a 4.91 ERA on the road). Robbie Ray (8-3, 2.87) comes in off a gem against the Phillies on Saturday, giving up two runs off six hits and five K’s over seven innings in the victory. Ray had stumbled in his last start, but previous to that had won five in a row (note that Ray is a sharp 7-3 with a 2.54 ERA in all “night” games this season.) Colorado has dominated in almost every single ATS statistical category, but note that it’s just 3-5 (-1.8 units) already this season after three or more consecutive losses, while Arizona is 30-11 (+17.2 units) in front of the home town crowd. I think Gray is getting too much respect here, Diamondbacks roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVROITE on Houston Astros. Michael Pineda (7-4. 4.12 ERA) continues to regress as the season progresses for the Yanks, most recently he was rocked for seven runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. Pineda would go on to give up three home runs in that one (note that he’s a poor 1-5 with a 4.19 ERA on the road this year.) Lance McCullers (7-1, 2.53) gave up one run over five innings with no walks and eight K’s in a victory over Seattle on Saturday. McCullers looked sharp in his first start back to the rotation after a brief stint on the DL (note that he’s 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA at home). Pineda has been a disaster on the road all season, while McCullers has been virtually untouchable at home. Nothing will change tonight, Astros roll.

10* PLAY on Arizona Diamondbacks. I like Patrick Corbin to match the suddenly struggling Lance Lynn inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely feel that the value swings to the hard-hitting home side on Thursday night. Lynn (5-5, 3.86 ERA) was crushed for seven runs off six hits while walking three over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. Lynn has now been shelled for 14 runs over his past two starts (note that he’s a sub-par 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in all “day” games as well.) Corbin (6-7, 4.89) comes in off his best start of the season, giving up one run off eight hits and a walk with five K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Philadelphia on Friday. It was his second straight quality start and he has now posted a solid 2.95 ERA and a sparkling 18:4 K:BB over his past three trips to the hill. St. Louis is just 15-21 (-7 units) on the road this year, while Arizona is 30-10 (+18.4 units) at home. Diamondbacks roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Boston Red Sox. Rick Porcello has looked a lot better after a shaky start and I think he’ll get the better of his inconsistent counterpart today. Adlaberto Mejia (2-3, 4.93 ERA) comes in off a gem against Cleveland on Friday, giving up no runs on two hits and walking five over five innings. Mejia has gone farther than the fifth inning just once over his last six trips to the hill though. Porcello (4-9, 5.00) gave up four runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out eight over 6.1 innings in a 9-4 win over the Angels on Friday. 73 of Porcello’s 102 pitches were for strikes and he’d avoid giving up any home runs. Porcello has the pedigree and track record to return to form. He’s just a year removed from a Cy Young where he was 13-1 with a 2.97 ERA in Boston. I like Porcello to outlast Mejia today and I look for the hard-hitting home side to take advantage. Red Sox roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Pittsburgh Pirates. Blake Snell (0-4, 4.71 ERA) draws a tough first assignment back to the big leagues after a stint in the minors. Snell did well in Triple-A with a 2.66 ERA while winning five games. Regardless of that though, Snell still owns a poor 1.62 WHIP in the majors. Ivan Nova (7-5, 3.06) comes in off a sub-par effort against the Brewers on Thursday, giving up four runs off 11 hits and two walks while striking out five. Nova though owns a sharp 1.08 WHIP and is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. I think Snell has another letdown on the road in this interleague matchup. Pirates roll. 

10* RUN-LINE GAME OF MONTH on Chicago White Sox. I think this is great value, as I’ll grab the 1.5 runs of insurance for the near pick-em price. Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he most recently allowed five earned runs over six innings while giving up eight hits and two walks. Severino has been regressing as the season has progressed as he’s now allowed back-to-back sub-par four-plus run performances. Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69) comes in off a gem against the Twins, going seven scoreless and striking out nine. Quintana has gotten better as the season has worn on, having allowed just six runs over his past four starts combined (posting 24 K’s in that span). The Yanks are just 14-17 (-9.2 units) against clubs with losing records, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the suddenly struggling Severino. Play on the White Sox on the run-line.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Marlins. Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Robert Gsellman (5-5, 6.04 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he’s coming off a brutal start against LA on Tuesday, allowing eight runs off nine hits over just 4.1 innings (four of the hits were home runs). Unfortunately it won’t get any easier for the struggling Mets sophomore as he’s already just 2-2 with an atrocious 7.17 ERA on the road. Dan Straily (5-4, 3.43) comes in off a gem against the No. 1 offense in the league, holding the Nationals to one run off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision on Wednesday. Straily has been electric of late, having issued just three total walks over his last five starts (he’s been particularly dominant at home as well, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA). Recent form displayed from these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a lop-sided blowout on our hands. Fish roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Detroit Tigers. Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Matt Strahm (2-4, 4.80 ERA) went three innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday, giving up five runs off seven hits and a walk (Strahm is just 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this year). Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.52) comes in off a gem against Seattle on Wednesdady, striking out 11 and giving up just three runs over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision. Verlander has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 2-0 with a tiny 2.19 ERA at home to date. KC is just 9-18 (-8.2 units) against division opponents, while Detroit is 16-11 (+4.3 units) against divisional foes. Verlander and the Tigers roll.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on under Cubs/Nats. Jake Arrieta (7-5, 4.36 ERA) isn’t the same pitcher that was in 2014, but he’s still a “stud” for the most part and he’s coming off a gem against Miami on Thursday, giving up one run off six hits while striking out three over seven innings in the victory (zero walks). It was an encouraging start for Arrieta, who needed only 82 pitches to get through it (note that he’s a very respectable 4-3 with a 3.83 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.) Max Scherzer (8-5, 2.09) gave up two unearned runs off two hits and one walk over eight frames in an unfortunate loss to Miami on Wednesday, striking out a whopping 11 opponents. Scherzer has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as not only does he own a 2.85 ERA at home, but he’s also 6-1 with a tiny 2.13 ERA in all night games. Recent form displayed by these two elite hurlers suggests that runs will truly be at a premium in this one. Play the under.

10* GAME OF WEEK on Cleveland Indians. Cole Hamels (2-0, 3.03 ERA) has been on the DL since early May and has been cleared to go after making it through his Friday bullpen session. Hamels owns a decent ERA, but a very uninspiring 15:12 K:BB over 32.2 innings so far this year. Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 2.99) comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Wednesday, going six scoreless with ten K’s. Over his last three outings spanning 17.2 innings, Carrasco has given up just three runs (note that he’s been particularly tough in all “night” contests this season, so far 6-1 with a 2.68 ERA). Hamels is being thrown to the wolves in his first start back from injury. Tribe rolls.

10* MAIN EVENT on St. Louis Cardinals. The Pirates turn to Chad Kuhl (2-6, 5.46 ERA) on Sunday night and he comes in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Tuesday, giving up two runs over five innings. It was his first win since April 8th, so I’m not going to read too much into one decent performance (note that Kuhl hasn’t finished six frames of work since his third start of the year. Also note that he’s just 2-6 with a 6.95 ERA in all “night” games.) Mike Leake (5-6, 3.03) gave up one run off three hits over six frames, striking out five but having to settle for a no-decision in what turned out to be an extra-innings win over the Phillies on Tuesday. Leake has been far from perfect this year, but note that he owns a very respectable 2.82 ERA in all “night” games. I like Leake to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart in this one. Cards roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on San Francisco Giants. Giant’s veteran Matt Moore has struggled on the road this season, while performing quite well in front of the home town crowd. I think this performance trend continues on Sunday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Rafael Montero (0-4, 6.49 ERA), who has a terrible 10.80 ERA over a total of 6.2 big league innings this year. Moore (3-7, 5.82) on the other hand comes in off his best start of the season, giving up three runs off seven hits over seven innings in a win over the Braves on Tuesday, striking out six and walking just one. It was a big step in the right direction and as noted off the top, he’s been much better at home (3.07 ERA), than on the road (8.39). I like Moore to easily outduel his explosive counterpart. Giants roll.

10* BREAKFAST CLUB on Atlanta Braves. Zach Davies (7-4, 5.40 ERA) has been hit-or-miss for the Brewers this year and he most recently wwas destroyed for seven runs off ten hits (including two HR’s) in a loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Davies has only posted three quality starts out of his 15 trips to the hill this season. Julio Teheran (6-5, 4.76) went eight innings against San Francisco on Tusday and gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits, striking out two and walking none. Teheran has struggled this year, but he continues to battle and he’s now posted three straight quality starts in a row. Recent form exhibited by each of these starters suggests that the Braves aren’t getting nearly enough respect in this matchup in my opinion. Atlanta rolls.

10* BREAKFAST CLUB on Kansas City Royals. Marco Estrada (4-5, 4.98 ERA) has for the most part been a disaster for the Blue Jays this year, most recently giving up six runs off seven hits and four walks over 3.2 innings in a win over the Rangers on Monday, fortunate to receive a no-decision. Over his last 16.1 innings of work Estrada has now allowed 23 runs spanning four starts (he’s been particularly bad on the road as well, just 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA). Jason Vargas (10-3, 2.27) has for the most part been spectacular for the Royals this season, he most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks with three K’s over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Vargas comes in on top form having won five straight, while allowing three runs or less in all five. Over his last 32.2 innings Vargas has walked just seven batters while posting a 2.14 ERA (and note that he’s been at his best at home as well, just 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA). The Jays are a horrible 5-12 (-10.5 units) this year against southpaws, while KC is 27-25 (+5.7 units) against right-handed starters. Royals roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Boston Red Sox. Alex Meyer (3-3, 3.52 ERA) has been hit-or-miss for LA this year, most recently he went six scoreless while striking out nine in a win over Kansas City on Saturday. Meyer is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA at home, but just 1-3 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA on the road. Rick Porcello (3-9, 5.05) won the AL Cy Young last year, but he’s looked poor for the most part for Boston this season. Porcello was most recently rocked for seven runs over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Astros on Saturday. Porcello has struggled with consistency, but he does have the pedigree and track record to start normalizing his numbers. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against in my opinion. Note as well that LA is just 26-29 (-1.5 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Boston is 34-25 (+2.1 units) in the same position. Red Sox roll.

10* BLUE CHIP on under Orioles/Rays. Ubaldo Jimenez (2-2, 6.25 ERA) was 8-12 with a 5.44 ERA last year. Jimenez’s best days are behind him, but he does come in off a gem against the hard-hitting Cardinals on Sunday, giving up two runs off four hits and four walks while striking out three over seven innings. Rays’ ace Chris Archer (5-4, 3.75) also comes in off a strong outing, striking out eight and giving up two runs off six hits and one walk over six innings in a victory over Detroit on Saturday. It was Archer’s fourth quality start in his last six trips to the hill (note that he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.40 ERA at home this season). These teams have both played to some higher-scoring games this season, but recent form exhibited by these starters suggests we’ll have a bit of a pitchers duel on our hands on Friday night. Play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Milwaukee Brewers. I don’t think home field advantage can be overlooked in this particular matchup. Pittsburgh turns to ace Ivan Nova (7-4, 2.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a win over the Cubs on Saturday. Nova’s numbers for the most part are elite, however his 13.7 percent strikeout rate ranks 79th out of 84 qualified starters. Chase Anderson (5-2, 2.92) also comes in off a strong outing  against San Diego on Saturday, allowing three runs off five hits with six K’s over seven frames. Over his last five starts Anderson has now allowed just four runs spanning 34.2 innings of work (his 3.39 FIP would suggest that his numbers are no fluke either. And note that he’s a sparkling 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA at home this season). Pittsburgh is just 25-27 (-1.1 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Milwaukee is 30-26 (+9.3 units) in the same position. Great value, Brewers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on St. Louis Cardinals. Nick Pivetta is coming off the best outing of his young career, getting the better of Boston’s ace Chris Sale. It was a great performance, but I think Pivetta will stumble in this one. Michael Wacha (3-3, 4.78 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Thursday for the Cards. So far it’s been a disappointing campaign for Wacha, but the tools and pedigree are both in place to return to form. Pivetta (1-3, 4.46) went seven scoreless against the Red Sox while also posting nine K’s. Previous to that though, Pivetta had been a disaster and while the sky is the limit for the hard-throwing right-hander, regression looks imminent tonight. Cardinals roll.

10* GETAWAY DAY TOTAL OF THE MONTH on under Nationals/Marlins. These two starters have been a couple of the most consistent in the National League over the first half. Max Scherzer (8-4, 2.26 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Mets on Friday, giving up one run off four hits while striking out ten over eight innings in the eventual victory. Scherzer has now punched out double-digit batters in five straight starts (in total Scherzer has posted 12 quality starts out of 14 tries so far this year as well. Also note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road this season, 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA). Dan Straily (5-4, 3.58 ERA) also comes in off a gem against Atlanta on Friday, going seven scoreless and scattering four hits while striking out eight. Straily has now posted three quality starts out of his last four trips to the mound (note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA at home). Recent performance suggests we’ll have a pitchers duel on our hands in this one. Play the under.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on under Giants/Braves. Both Matt Moore and Julio Teheran are struggling this season, but I think they’ll battle into the latter frames as I look for this one to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done. Moore (2-7, 6.00 ERA) will be looking to get back on track after giving up eight runs over three innings at Coors Field on Thursday. Moore has been excellent at home and poor on the road this year, but I think his massive home-road split is ready to start stabilizing. ATL counters with Teheran (6-4, 4.86) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 13-2 victory over Washington on Wednesday. After a shaky start, Teheran has started to the turn the corner as this latest gem was his fifth quality start out of his last seven trips to the mound. Two underachieving hungry hurlers results in a lower-scoring under.

10* SIDE OF WEEK on Cleveland Indians. Dylan Bundy has been better than expected this season, but his peripherals are suggesting regression is imminent. Corey Kluber has been far from perfect this year, but he’s now trending in the correct direction. Kluber (5-2, 4.38 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing just two runs off four hits and a walk over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. The Indians’ ace has now posted three ten-strikeout games over his last five trips to the mound. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.29) who got a win in his last start despite giving up five runs off six hits over five innings against the White Sox on Wednesday (note that Bundy’s peripherals, 6.5 K/9 and a 4.53 FIP, both suggest rockier times are coming sooner rather than later.) Also note that Cleveland is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 1-2 (-0.6 units) this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I like Kluber to outduel Bundy, Tribe rolls.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on under Reds/Rays. Both Scott Feldman and Jake Odorizzi have looked brilliant at times this year and really horrible in others. Each will be hungry tonight and I think this competitiveness will result in a lower-scoring under once it’s all said and done. Feldman (5-5, 4.29 ERA) comes in off a 6-2 loss to the Padres on Tuesday, giving up four runs over five innings of work. Previous to that he went seven scoreless against St. Louis though. Odorizzi (4-3, 3.77) also comes in off a dud, giving up five runs over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. Odorizzi has been at his best in front of the home town crowd this season though (3-2, 3.11). The under is 6-4 in the Reds 10 interleague contests this year, while the Rays have seen the under go 3-1 in the same position. This number is just a little high.

10* MAIN EVENT on the Houston Astros. David Price (1-1, 5.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) gave up three runs off four hits and four walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against Phildalelphia on Tuesday. Price is still working his way back from his elbow injury and clearly faces a stiff test today against the red hot Astros. Joe Musgrove (4-4, 4.89 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) started the year slowly, but has steadily been progressing. Like his counterpart, he also returned from injury in his last start and he’d go on to give up two runs off five hits and one walk over 4.1 innings (Musgrove has now posted a quality start in four of his last five outings). Ultimately I think Price is getting far too much respect in this matchup as he’ll need to prove himself before getting the benefit of the doubt from me. The value is on the home side.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL on UNDER Mariners/Rangers. Seattle turns to flame-thrower James Paxton (5-1, 2.25 ERA) who comes in off his first loss of the year to Toronto on Sunday, giving up four runs off eight hits over four innings. Paxton looks to get back on track and improve upon his 1-0, 2.60 ERA road record. Tyson Ross gets the nod for the home side, making his season debut for the Rangers. Ross endured mixed success in the minors, but note that Texas has seen the total go under the number in nine of 12 this year against southpaws (also note that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 32 on the road already this season). Runs would appear to be at a premium in this one, play the under.

10* NL PERSONAL FAVORITE Chicago Cubs. Eddie Butler (3-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) hasn’t been perfect this year, but I think he and the defending champs offer great value in this particular matchup. Butler comes in off a loss against Colorado, giving up three runs off six hits while striking out three over five innings on Saturday. Buter’s offense failed hiim as he looked pretty good against a potent Rockies lineup otherwise (note that Butler is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in all “night” games this year). The Pirates counter with Trevor Williams (3-3, 5.13) who most recently gave up five runs off six hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against Miami on Saturday. Williams remains in the line-up despite having an 0-1, 5.32 record and ERA at home (also note that he’s just 1-2 with a 6.41 ERA in all night contests). The Cubs are 18-11 (+1.7 units) against the divisoin, while the Pirates are only 7-12 (-4.2 units) in the same position. Cubs roll.

10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH on Washington Nationals. The Nats fell hard in yesterday’s 13-2 defeat at home to the Braves, but they’re primed for a big bounce back in The Big Apple in what shapes up to be a very favorable pitching matchup for them. Gio Gonzalez (5-1, 2.91 ERA) enters this one on top form for the Nationals, he most recently held the hard-hitting Rangers to a single run off three hits while striking out nine in an unfortuate setback on Saturday. The crafty southpaw has now allowed two runs or fewer in ten of his 13 starts this year. New York made an over night pitching change, dropping Steven Matz and going with Robert Gsellman instead. Gsellman (5-3, 4.95) is coming off his best start of the year, going six scoreless against Atlanta on Saturday. Gsellman though has been consistently inconsistent all season as note that he’s just 3-3 with a 6.19 ERA in all night contests this year. After last night’s blowout loss, Washington gets back on track with a convincing victory on Thursday.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND, 10* PERS FAV. After facing Kershaw yesterday, the Indians should have an advantage on the mound this evening. Kluber, who has a 1.35 ERA in one start (2014) vs. the Dodgers, has been excellent since returning from the DL. He's made two starts, both of them of the quality variety. In those two starts, he recorded 18 Ks, while allowing just three combined runs though 12 innings. The Indians are a perfect 4-0 in his home starts. McCarthy hasn't been as good on the road as he has at home. He's also been worse at night than during the day. At home, he's got a 2.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. On the road, those numbers climb to 3.97 and 1.32. During the day, McCarthy is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. However, at night, he's 1-2 with a poor 4.40 ERA. These pitchers opposed each other a few summers ago, when McCarthy was with the Yankees. Kluber got the better of McCarthy in that 3-0 Indians victory and I expect him to to do so again here.

 I'm playing on SF/KC to finish UNDER the total, 10* BEST BET. While the Royals have now seen four straight games eclipse the number, I expect that streak to come to an end this afternoon. Hammel's overall numbers still aren't very good. However, he's off back-to-back quality starts. Last time out, he tossed seven very strong innings against a hot Houston team. The Astros would manage only one run on just four hits. He didn't walk a single batter either, the second straight start he's accomplished that feat. Cueto keeps the ball in the park here at home. In five starts here, a span of 33 innings, he's served up only one home run. In his last start here, he allowed one run through six complete innings, striking out eight Braves along the way. Cueto's last start vs. KC (2015) was a 3-0 final. Hammel already pitched great against the Giants back in the spring, getting a no-decision in a 2-1 game. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO, 10* ANNIHILATOR. Talk about liking your home-cooking. Chacin has a terrible 10.27 ERA and 2.12 WHIP on the road. However, in six starts here at Petco, he's 3-1 with an outstanding 1.58 ERA to go along with a 0.83 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .152 against him here. Garrett has pitched only 3 2/3 innings in two starts this month. On the season, he's 3-5 with a terrible 7.40 ERA in 10 starts. That includes a 2-3 mark with an ugly 8.14 ERA on the road. In two daytime starts, he's 0-2 with a dismal 18.90 ERA and 2.85 WHIP. Expect Chacin to continue to thrive here at home, getting the better of Garrett, the Padres closing the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on SF/KC to finish UNDER the total, 10* BLUE CHIP. These teams played a 2-game series back in April and the two games together saw just five combined runs scored. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair this evening. Vargas outdueled Bumgarner when he faced the Giants back in the spring. On that 4/19 start, he allowed only four hits through seven shutout innings, striking out nine without walking a batter. The final score was 2-0. Including that gem, Vargas is 8-3 with a stellar 2.18 ERA on the season. Not surprisingly, nine of his 12 starts, including four of five on the road, have stayed below the number. Blach greatly prefers to pitch at home. In five starts here this season, he's got a 1.87 ERA. Four of those five games fell below the total. With KC averaging 3.5 rpg (.229 avg) vs. southpaws and SF averaging 3.4, look for "more of the same" here. 

I'm playing DETROIT on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10* ANNIHILATOR.) The Tigers got back on track Sunday, snapping a 3-game losing streak with an 8-3 win at Boston. Rested, returning home and with a hot pitcher on the mound, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Farmer has made two starts this season and he has yet to allow a single run. Through 13 combined innings, he's recorded 16 K's against just three walks and nine hits. (That works out to a 0.692 WHIP.) While Greinke is still tough, he's just 2-3 in five road starts, the most recent of those wins coming by a single run. He lasted just five innings last time out and has a 4.67 ERA his last three. Dbax 13-17 on the road, Tigers 16-12 at home. Tigers 26-17 (+9.6) their last 43 vs. the moneyline, when playing with a day off. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs at the reasonable price. 

I'm playing on Atlanta/Washington to finish UNDER the total, 10* BEST BET. Both teams are off low-scoring games and I'm expecting another one to start this series. Foltynewic hasn't allowed a single run over his past two starts. During that 14-inning span, he's given up just six hits, none of them leaving the yard. On the season, he's got a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road. Like Foltynewic, Strasburg has been excellent this month. In two June starts, he's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .146 off him in June. Of course, he was also 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in May. Overall, he's 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA. Strasburg has seen both 2017 starts against the Braves fall below the total. Those games had scores of 3-2, Strasburg striking out 21 in 14.2 innings. Foltynewic's lone 2017 start against Washington had a final score of 3-1. Expect more of the same Monday. 

I'm playing on TB/Oakland to finish UNDER the total, 10* BLUE CHIP. With the first three games of the series all finishing above the total, each team has now played four straight 'overs.' I expect that to change this afternoon though. Archer continues to pitch very well here at home. In his last start, he allowed only two runs through seven dominant innings, striking out 11 without walking a batter. Hahn was also very effective in his last start, bouncing back from a poor effort. He allowed just one unearned run through six shutout innings. Hahn is 0-3 on the road but thats hardly been his fault, as he's got a 2.53 in five road starts.  Not suprisingly, four of those finsihed under the number. He was excellent (1 run on only 4 hits, 7 2/3 innings) in his lone start against TB, a 3-2 game last season. Archer's lone start vs. Oakland also fell below the total, Archer allowing a single run. Rays averaging just 4.2 runs per game during day games, hitting .237. A's hitting .233 on the road, averaing only 3.6 runs. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on SF, 10* PERS FAV. The Twins took yesterday's game but I like the Giants' chances of bouncing back this afternoon. Samardzija was outstanding last time out. Through 7 2/3 innings, he limited the Brewers to a single earned run while striking out 10 batters. He didn't walk a batter for the second straight start. (He also kep the ball in the park for the second straight game.) Over his last three starts, he's got 23 K's vs. just one walk. A solid 1.142 WHIP on the season suggests that he's been better than his record indicates. With a 4.67 ERA his last three starts, Berrios has come back to earth. Lets not forget that he still has a career ERA which is above six. Giants respond.

I'm playing on SF, 10* BEST BET. I won with the Giants yesterday and I'm coming back with them again tonight. Moore's last start came at Philadelphia. That marked his third road start in four games and his fifth road game in his past seven. He figures to be happy to be home. Indeed, he's got a 7.94 ERA on the road as compared to a 2.57 ERA here at SF. Santana had been pitching well but he came back down to earth last time out. In four innings, he served up three home runs and seven runs overall. While they've admittedly been tough on the road so far this season, the Twins are just 17-26 (-11.6) in I.L. action the past 2+ seasons, most recently having dropped two of three vs. Colorado in mid-May. SF wins. 

I'm playing on TB. These teams have split the first two games of the series. Off yesterday's victory and with an expected edge on the mound, I like the Rays to take this evening's rubber game. Both these starters allowed exactly 8 runs in exactly 2 1/3 innings in their last start. However, in Holland's case, all eight runs were earned. In Odorizzi's case, only three of those eight runs were earned. Odorizzi gave up four hits. Holland gave up eight, three of them leaving the yard. For the season, Holland has a 4.72 ERA in seven road starts. By comparison, Odorizzi has a 2.90 ERA and 0.935 WHIP at home. Odorizzi has only made one start against the Sox in the past couple of seasons. That was a game here against Sale, here last April. Odorizzi was outstanding, allowing four four hits through seven shutout innings. Sale was also dominant though and the Sox ultimately won 1-0. Expect Odorizzi to get some more support this time, the Rays finishing on top. 

I'm playing SD/Arizona to finish UNDER the total, 10* BLUE CHIP. While the first two games of this series have both topped the total, I believe the value lies with the UNDER for this afternoon's all-southpaw finale. Yesteray's game featured a pair of right-handed starters. The opener was one right-hander vs. one left-hander. Note that the southpaw (Ray) was dominant in that one, striking out 11 in 6 1/3 innings, allowing a single run. This afternoon, we have a pair of lefties on the mound. Thats noteworthy as SD is averaging only 3.0 runs per game (.207 avg) against southpaw starters. The Diamondbacks haven't been all much better; they're averaging 4.4 rpg vs. southpaws. SD averages 3.0 rpg in day games, hitting a paltry .197. The Dbax average 3.3 rpg and hit .222 in day games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 12-6 when Arizona has played during the afternoon, those games averaging just 7.8 combined runs. Expect those stats to improve here.

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's opener was of the low-scoring variety, the Phillies winning by a score of 3-1. I'm expecting another relatively well-pitched affair this evening. Foltynewicz comes off a gem last time out. In seven shutout innings at Cincinnati, he limited the Reds to a mere two hits, striking out 10 along the way. Foltynewicz has made one start against the Phillies so far this season and it also was a good one. Through seven innings, he allowed just one run, on only four hits, striking out nine against two walks. Admittedly, Eickhoff has struggled of late. That said, he does have a superb 1.58 ERA in seven starts against Atlanta, five of those staying below the number. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS, 10* GAME OF WEEK. After winning with them in their final two games against the Dodgers, I successfully played against the Cards in all three of their losses at Chicago. While I've avoided the first two games of this series, both Reds' wins, I believe this will prove to be a great spot to jump back on the Cards. Lynn quietly has a stellar 2.98 ERA and 1.068 WHIP on the season. Arroyo, on the other hand, has an ugly 6.24 ERA. 

Including a dominant win back in April, Lynn is 9-4 (team is 11-4) in 15 starts against the Reds. He's got a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in those games. On the other hand, Arroyo is an awful 8-18 (teams are 14-25) in 39 career starts vs. St. Louis. In two 2017 starts against the Cards, Arroyo has allowed 10 runs in eight innings, walking seven while striking out only five. 

After losing 10-0 on 5/26, the Cards bounced back with a 3-0 road win the next day. Off yesterday's embarrassing loss, look for them to again bounce back with a much-needed win.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE, 10* PERS FAV. The O's are off a big comeback win last night and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Miley was dominant again last time out, holding the Red Sox to a single run, on just five hits, through seven complete innings. Through five home starts, he's got a remarkable 1.01 ERA. Kuhl, 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA through 11 starts, has allowed seven runs, through 9 1/3 innings over his last two starts. While the Pirates average 3.6 runs per game (.210 avg) vs. southpaw starts, the O's average 4.6 rpg (.257 avg) vs. right-handers. All things considered, this line could easily be considerably higher. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE, 10* PERS FAV. Off back-to-back losses, the O's should have benefitted from yesterday's day off. With a 30-16 (+13.4) record in Interleague play the past 2+ seasons, they should also be happy to see an opponent from the National League. While the Pirates are 12-18 on the road, the O's are 19-10 at home. They're now 118-73 (+32.4) here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 46-26 (+8.6) mark as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. During that stretch, its also worth mentioning that the O's are a lucrative 39-21 overall in the month of June. 

Admittedly, Nova has been very solid so far this season. He's got a poor 5.44 ERA in eight starts here at Camden Yards though, most recently giving up five runs (2 HRs) in six innings here last June. Several Baltimore hitters are familiar with Nova but Gausman will have the advantage of starting against the Pirates for the first time. While Nova has been facing the likes of the Phillies and Braves, Gausman's last three opponents have been the Yankees, Texans and Jays. He's still managed a 3.00 ERA during that 3-game stretch though, better than the 3.97 mark that Nova has over his last three. O's win. 

I'm playing on LA, 10* PERS FAV. While I successfully played against the Dodgers yesterday, this should be an excellent spot for them to bounce back with a victory.

I also successfully played against the Dodgers the last time that Ryu was on the mound; they lost against the Cards on 5/31. That wasn't Ryu's fault though, as he turned in a gem. In fact, he only allowed three hits and one run through six complete innings, walking just one batter.

I mention the lack of walks for Ryu, as they've been a real issue for Gio Gonzalez, who seemingly always serves up at least a few free passes. For the season, Gonzalez has now walked 34 batters in 68 innings, basically a walk every other inning. That tends to catch up with a pitcher.

Gonzalez's recent opponents (Seattle, SF, Atlanta) have all been sub-500 teams, none of which rank in the top 10 in runs scored, none of which rank in the top 10 in terms of walks. However, he's still got a 4.67 ERA to go along with an ugly 1.731 WHIP during that stretch, walking 10 batters in 17 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers, who are well above .500 and who rank in the top 10 in terms of runs scored per game, are better suited to take advantage of Gonzalez's current control issues. Indeed, LA ranks third overall in the league, in terms of walks taken per game. 

Overall, Gonzalez has a 4.65 ERA and 1.581 WHIP on the road. Ryu has a 3.78 ERA and 1.321 WHIP at home. 

Both teams can hit. The Dodgers average 5.5 runs per game at home; the Nats average 5.7 rpg on the road. However, the Dodgers' bullpen has been better. LA relievers have a stellar 2.07 ERA and 0.958 WHIP at home; Washington relievers have a poor 5.94 ERA and 1.643 WHIP on the road. 

The Dodgers have had success against the Nats here in recent seasons, taking six of eight games here the past couple of years. Knowing they'll face Scherzer and Strasburg the next two days, they know they need to take advantage of Gonzalez today. I like their chances of starting the series with a victory.

I'm playing on CHICAGO, 10* SIDE OF MONTH. I've been riding the Cubs in this series and I'm going to do so again this evening. After dropping six straight, the Cubs have regained their momentum. They should have some success at the plate this evening. 

Wacha is 2-0 with an excellent 1.93 ERA in three daytime starts, opposing batters hitting just .190. However, he's also 0-3 with an ugly 5.23 ERA in six evening starts, opposing hitters batting .306. In three road starts overall, he's 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP. By comparison, Hendricks' 2-1 home record to go along with a 3.49 ERA here, looks pretty strong. Overall, Hendricks has a 3.75 ERA and 1.162 WHIP.

Wacha is 4-5 with an ugly 5.82 ERA in 11 starts against the Cubs. Hendricks, on the other hand, has a respectable 3.78 ERA and a stingy 1.007 WHIP in eight starts vs. the Cards. Last time he faced them, he held the Cards to one run through eight complete innings. In fact, in his last two starts against the Cards, Hendricks has 19 K's against just two walks, allowing only three combined runs, on just six hits, through 15 innings.

Cards average 4.1 runs per game. Cubs average 4.6 runs per game, 5.0 r.p.g. here at Wrigley. Chicago relievers have a combined 3.10 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, converting on 73.7% of their save chances. St. Louis relievers have a combined 4.65 ERA and 1.445 WHIP.  Cubs keep rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on KC/Cleveland to finish UNDER the total, 10* BLUE CHIP. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, the UNDER is still a profitable 19-9 here on the season. Things should return to "normal" this afternoon. Bauer comes off a game which saw him strike out 14 batters in seven innings. He's got an impressive 29 K's vs. just four walks over his last three starts. Four of his five road starts this season have fallen below the total. Skoglund was dominant in his debut. Through 6 1/3 shutout innings, he limited the Tigers to a mere two hits. He'll have the advantage of facing the Cleveland hitters for the first time and he's going to have plenty of confidence after last week's masterpiece. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10* BEST BET) The Phillies got back on track with a much needed win yesterday and will bring some positive momentum to the ballpark this afternoon. They're a profitable 8-3 (+7.1) vs. the money-line when Hellickson takes the mound, 4-1 here at home. While Hellickson's ERA is a mediocre 4.45, he does have a solid 1.17 WHIP. Moore would be pretty happy to have those kind of numbers. Despite having five of his 11 starts come at pitcher-friendly SF, he's 2-6 (SF is 3-8) with a 4.99 ERA and 1.462 WHIP overall. On the road, Moore is 0-4 and has an ugly 7.80 ERA / 1.901 WHIP. The Giants are 1-5 in his road starts, the lone win coming by a single run. Hellickson's lone 2016 start vs. the Giants was a 3-2 game on 6/25. About six weeks later, Moore's lone 2016 start vs. the Phillies also resulted in a 3-2 game. I'm grabbing the +1.5 runs.

I'm playing on NY, 10* PERS FAV. Off three straight losses, I expect the Mets to bounce back with a much-needed victory this evening. While the Mets will be seeing Glasnow for the second time in less than a week, Gsellman will have the advantage of starting against the Pirates for the first time. Gsellman is off back-to-back quality starts, too. Two starts ago, he allowed three runs through six complete innings. Last time out, he was even better. In seven complete innings, he allowed two runs, only one of them earned, on just three hits. He got the "W" in a 4-2 Mets' victory over the Brewers. The previous day, Glasnow was getting hammered by these same Mets, giving up five runs, on eight hits, in just five innings. That was at Pittsburgh, but Glasnow also has an ugly 7.45 ERA and 1.862 WHIP in four road starts. Mets roll. 

I'm playing on Houston/Texas UNDER the total, 10* O/U BEST BET. Yesterday's game had an O/U line of 8 (or 8.5) and finished with eight runs. This evening, we're getting a far more generous O/U line to work with. Given the current form of the starters, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. McCullers Jr., 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA on the season, has an awesome 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his last three starts. His last road start resulted in a 3-0 final, the Astros right-hander tossing six shutout innings. In fact, he's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA his last three road starts! Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 7-4 in his last 11 starts overall. Not to be outdone, Cashner has seen the UNDER go 7-2 in his nine starts, while posting a stingy 2.92 ERA. That includes a superb 1.96 ERA in four home starts, three of which stayed below the total. With opposing batters hitting a mere .079 against Casher with runner's in scoring position, best in the A.L., don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Oakland/Washington to finish UNDER the total, 10* BLUE CHIP. Yesterday's game produced 16 runs. I don't expect even half that many this afternoon. Ross is going to be fired up, as he went to high school less than five miles from the Coliseum. He'll face an Oakland team which hits only .234 and averages just 3.9 runs. Admittedly, Mengden's career stats aren't too impressive. Its stilll a relatively small sample size though; note that he was far better in daytime starts than evening starts last season, his ERA roughly half what it was under the lights. Its also worth noting that Mengden had a 2.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP (despite going 1-3) in four June starts last season. The UNDER is 4-1 the last five times that the A's allowed double-digits in their previous game and 14-6-2 in Washington day games this season. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* ANNIHILATOR. After falling behind 2-0 early in yesterday's game, the Cubs were in danger of losing seven straight. However, as you know, they rallied for a 3-2 win. With Lester on the mound, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. St. Louis entered yesterday's game hitting a respectable .267 against right-handers, averaging 4.4 runs per game. However, the Cards haven't been nearly as good vs. left-handers, averaging only 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting a measly .209. Don't expect those numbers to improve against Lester, as he's 4-0 with a stellar 1.93 ERA and a dominant 0.679 WHIP in four starts here at Wrigley. With Leake at 0-3 his last three in this series, I'm going with Lester and the Cubs.

I'm playing on SD/Colorado UNDER the total, 10* BEST BET. Marquez has a dominant 1.06 ERA through three road starts. Not surprisingly, two of those three games fell below the number. Richard has seen back-to-back games fall below the total, the UNDER now 7-4 in his 11 starts on the season. In Richard's last home start, he tossed a complete game, allowing a single run on just five hits. In Richard's last start against the Rockies, he tossed seven shutout innings. In fact, he's tossed a combined 13 shutout innings in his last two home starts vs. Colorado. While the Padres have now seen the UNDER go 6-0-1 their last seven, the Rockies have seen the UNDER go 19-9 in divisional games so far this season. More of the same Friday night. 

I'm playing on LA/Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total, 10* PITCHERS DUEL. Kershaw had a rare off day last time out. Don't expect it to happen it again. The Dodger ace has a 2.10 ERA through five road starts. Last time he was on the road, Kershaw tossed seven shutout innings.  In his previous game, he'd allowed only three hits through nine innings, striking out 10 without walking a batter. That one finished with a 2-1 final. Speaking of "striking out 10 without walking a batter," that's exactly what Nelson did last time out. He did so in seven innings, allowing just a single run. These pitchers opposed each other here in 2015. The O/U line was 6.5. Both delivered quality starts, Kershaw allowing only run through eight innings, and the final score was 5-1. Since then, Kershaw has made two starts against the Brewers. Both of those also finished with seven or fewer combined runs, Kershaw striking out 19 without issuing a single free pass. Expect a pitcher's duel.

I'm playing on Detroit/Chicago to finish UNDER the total, 10* TV MAIN EVENT. These teams were involved in a fairly high-scoring series here back in late April. However, with Holland and Fulmer both in excellent form, I'm expecting this evening's opener to be lower-scoring. You'd never know it by his record but Fulmer was money in May. In five starts, he had a stellar 2.19 ERA. All five were quality starts and he went seven or more innings in each. His last few starts have all fallen below the total, most recently a 1-0 loss and a 3-0 loss. For the season, Fulmer now has a 2.65 ERA. Like Fulmer, Holland has also been extremely sharp both on the season and of late. He's got a 2.97 ERA on the season, including a pair of quality starts against the Tigers. Over his last three starts, he's got a 2.25 ERA. Over his last two starts, he's recorded 14 K's in 14 innings, allowing just two combined runs. Expect a relatively well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying below the number.

I'm playing on Minnesota/LA to finish OVER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. Meyer, who missed his last start due to back spasms, last started 5/20. He allowed four runs (3 earned) in four innings, walking four along the way. Through five starts, he's got an ugly 5.79 ERA, four of those finishing above the number. Meija's got a poor 4.64 ERA and 1.593 WHIP through four starts. His lone road start was a distaster. The Twins have given up 48 runs over their past four games. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10* RUN LINE.) I believe that the Cards have an excellent shot at winning this game "outright." However, if I can get an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price, out of respect to McCarthy and the Dodgers, I believe thats the way to go. Wainwright is in excellent current form. He's off three straight quality starts. Correction. Three straight dominant starts. He's 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA during that stretch, allowing a single run through 20+ innings. Admittedly, McCarthy has also been pretty sharp of late. He did leave his last start with knee tendenitis though, something thats been troubling him all the way back to spring training. McCarthy has made three starts vs. the Cards and all three were decided by a single run. Likewise, Wainwright's last two starts vs. the Dodgers (both in 2014) were both decided by a single run. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5. 

I'm playing on STL, 10* SIDE OF MONTH. The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series but I fully expect the Cards, who have now dropped three straight, to bounce back with a big win this evening. Note that St. Louis is an oustanding 17-5 (+12.3) the past 2+ seasons, when off three or more consecutive losses. 

Martinez was on the wrong side of a 10-0 loss at Coors last time out. However, that wasn't his fault. He allowed just three runs through 7 1/3 innings, striking out nine. Pretty good, considering the venue; a hard-luck loss. Now, he returns home where he has dominated. Last start here, Martinez tossed a complete-game 2-hit shutout. That resulted in a no-decision though, as the Cards would go on to lose 3-1. Again, some tough luck for Martinez. He could easily be 2-0 his last two starts but instead is 0-1-1. Overall, in six starts here, he's 2-1 with a stellar 2.40 ERA and 0.919 WHIP.

Martinez should finally get some run support today. Over his past two starts, Ryu has allowed 22 baserunners (15 hits, 7 walks) in just 9 1/3 innings. For the season, he's 0-4 with an ugly 5.58 ERA and 1.810 WHIP on the road. 

In Martinez's last home start vs. the Dodgers, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit, en route to a 3-1 win. While not all his fault, the Dodgers have lost each of Ryu's last two starts vs. the Cards. All things considered, this line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on CHI/SD to finish OVER the total, 10* MAIN EVEN. Looking to avoid an unlikely sweep at Petco Park and with Arrieta on the mound, the Cubs are naturally pretty healthy-sized favorites. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is 26-12-1 the last 2+ seasons when the Padres were listed as home underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. (Should the line get that high, during that stretch, the OVER is also 22-10 when the Cubs were listed as road favorites of -175 or greater.) Arrieta allowed two home runs last time out and has a 5.77 ERA in seven road starts. Perdomo has a 7.11 ERA in five home starts, an ugly 8.40 ERA his last three overall. Two of Arrieta's three career starts here have produced eight or more combined runs, those three games averaging nine. With games here averaging 8.3 runs on the season overall, Padre day games averaging 8.9 and Cub day games averaging 9.7 (Over going 14-10) don't be surprised if this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* PERS FAV. Given the current form of the pitchers, the Twins could easily be a heavier favorite. Instead, we're able to get them in, or close to, the pick'em range. I feel thats providing very fair value. Yes, the Astros are hot.  Yesterday's meltdown notwithstanding, the Twins are playing pretty well too though. They've still won five of their last seven and they're still a lucrative 14-9 (+6.1) on the month. Three of those 14 May victories have come when Berrios has been on the mound. He's made three starts and the Twins have won them all. In fact, he's 3-0 with a superb 1.66 ERA and 0.554 WHIP. His lone home start resulted in 7 2/3 dominant shutout innings against the Rockies. He allowed just two hits and one walk, while striking out 11. Minnesota won 2-0. Fiers, on the other hand, has a 6.37 ERA in five road starts. In those five games, a span of just 24 innings, he's allowed a whopping 11 home runs. Last time out, he allowed 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Last start here at Minnesota saw him serve up three home runs in five innings. Twins, 16-6 (+11.2) under the lights, bounce back. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. After getting swept by the Twins and Astros the O's should be happy to return to A.L. East action. Considering that they're 15-6 (+8.4) against them here the past few seasons, a home date with the Yankees figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Bundy had a rare bad start at Detroit a couple of games ago. While he got no run support, he's already bounced back with a strong effort. Last time out, he allowed just two runs through seven complete innings. For the season, he's 3-1 (O's are 4-1) in five starts here, posting a superb 2.16 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He hasn't faced the Yankees this season; his lone home start against them was last September and resulted in an 8-0 win. Montgomery, on the other hand, already faced the O's this season. (He lasted only five innings but escaped with a no-decision in a 7-4 Baltimore win.) Including that result, the Yankees are just 3-5 when Montgomery takes the mound. The Yankee southpaw is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA on the road. I'm going with Bundy and the O's. 

I'm playing on NY/Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total, 10* BEST BET. While both teams enter tonight's game on "over" streaks, I expect to see some decent pitching on display on Sunday night. Harvey has gradually been coming around. Last time out, he allowed just three hits and two runs, through five innings. In his last start vs. the Pirates, he allowed only one run through six innings. He'll face a Pirate lineup which is averaging just 3.8 runs per game at home. While his overall numbers admittedly aren't very good, Glasnow is off a quality start last time out, allowing two runs through six complete innings. He'll have the advantage of starting against the Mets for the first time. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs. 10* BREAKFAST CLUB) While I like the Marlins' chances of winning "outright," getting an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price is too good a deal to pass up. Admittedly, Shoemaker has been solid overall (3.97 ERA) and he's been stingy of late. That said, the Angels are still just 10-18 on the road and I won't be surprised if they have some trouble against a pitcher who they haven't previously seen. While Urena may be 0-2 in two home starts, he's also got a 2.31 ERA in those games. Additionally, it should be noted that he's got a 0.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in daytime appearances. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on Atlanta/SF to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. The Giants have scored only one run in their last two games combined and six runs in their last four games. This figures to be another low-scoring affair. Blach has made four starts here this season. All four of those games fell below the total, Blach allowing just five earned runs, on only 17 hits, in 26 combined innings. (That translates to a 1.73 ERA and 0.885 WHIP.) Foltynewic is in excellent current form for the Braves, as he's allowed just one run in four of his last six starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA his last three and he's got a 1.99 ERA in four road starts on the season. While Blach will have the advantage of facing the Braves for the first time, Foltynewic's lone 2016 start here resulted in a 3-1 final, Foltynewic allowing just a single run in 7 2/3 innings. More of the same on Saturday night. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. Off yesterday's loss, I fully expect the Phillies to respond this afternoon. While he hasn't gotten wins to show or it, Eickhoff has shown signs of coming around for the Phillies. He delivered a quality start at Texas two starts ago and could have easily done the same vs. Colorado last time out, if not for some "cheap" (bloop) hits, which all came at the wrong time. He'd still go six innings and allow four runs. In those two starts, Eickhoff has 12 K's against just one walk. That's a lot more than the Reds can say about their starter. Arroyo was originally slated to go yesterday. Instead, he and Adleman got flip-flopped. While I also expected the Phillies to hit Adleman, Arroyo is arguably even more hittable. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings, serving up four long balls along the way. That was at home. However, he's also 0-2 with a terrible 8.05 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in four road starts. Eickhoff was a hard-luck loser when he faced the Reds back on 4/5. He allowed just two runs, on only five hits, in 6 2/3 innings of that game, striking out six against one walk. A similar effort should be more than enough this afternoon. Look for Eickhoff to finally get some run support, the Phillies bouncing back with a much-needed win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA 10* PERS FAV. After snapping their losing streak with an extra-inning win over the Rockies, the Phillies bring some positive momentum into this evening's game. Nola was coming off the disabled list, prior to his last start. He didn't miss a beat though. In fact, he looked stronger than ever. He'd finish with only four hits and one run allowed through seven rock solid innings. Adleman has been terrible as he's got a 6.19 ERA. In two road starts, he's 0-2 with an awful 11.37 ERA and 2.21 WHIP. In two starts vs. the Reds, Nola has a superb 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP, striking out 17 while walking only one. Phillies win, again. 

I'm playing on TB 10* PERS FAV. The Rays got back on track yesterday and they should have the advantage again this afternoon. Off back-to-back wins, Andriese is now 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA on the season. He's gotten plenty of run support of late and he should get some more here. Wright hasn't started a game since 4/23. While he was solid in that start, he's 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA (1.61 WHIP) for his big league career. Andriese should be happy to see the Angels; he limited them to just one run, on only four hits, through seven complete innings in his lone start against them, a 3-1 win last season. Rays win. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10*) The Phillies have struggled of late but I expect them to bounce back and AT LEAST keep this one close. Anderson is nothing special, as evidenced by his 6.66 ERA in five road starts. In that 25 2/3 innings span, he's served up eight long balls. He lasted just three innings when he started here last season, getting taken deep once and giving up four runs overall. The Phillies won 6-3. Velasquez's lone 2016 start against the Rockies came at Colorado. Still, he managed to allow just two runs through six complete innings, the Phillies winning 5-3. The Rockies are just 12-23 (-10.3) their last 35 vs. the money-line after three or more consecutive victories. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10*) Yesterday's (12-5) final score is a bit deceiving, as it makes the game look like a blowout. (It actually went to extra innings.) Prior to that, both these teams had seen two of their previous three decided by a single run. Though he only went 4 1/3 innings last time out, Colon recorded six K's without walking a batter, giving up one earned run in that time. The Braves ended up winning 5-2. He'd beaten the Jays in his previous start. Admittedly, Nova has been solid. However, its tough to win by more than a run when your team doesn't score on the road. Prior to yesterday's "explosion," the Pirates were averaging just 3.7 runs per game away from Pittsburgh. Colon hasn't faced the Pirates this season but he dominated them (8 K's, 0 walks, 2 runs in 7 2/3 innings) in his lone 2016 start against them. Nova's lone 2017 start against Altanta was a 1-run game. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs, 10*) Since splitting a pair of 1-run games on 5/18 and 5/19, the M's have been "blown out" in four straight. I expect them to bounce back and at least "keep this one close." Gonzalez has given up six home runs over his last three starts, sporting a 5.40 ERA and 1.636 WHIP during that stretch. His 12 K's vs. 10 walks over those three games does little to inspire confidence either. Miranda, on the other hand, has 17 K's (against 5 walks) in his last two starts alone. In those games, he's allowed just two combined runs in 12 innings. While I actually expect the M's to win outright, as both those games resulted in 1-run Seattle losses, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* PERS FAV. The Braves come in with plenty of positive momentum; I expect them to continue rolling for another day. While he struggled last time out, in his last two starts against the Pirates, Teheran has allowed just two unearned runs (0 earned) through 14 2/3 innings. Two starts ago, he threw six shutout innings against the Marlins. So, he's not too far removed from a very strong outing. Williams, on the other hand, has yet to deliver a quality start. Williams wasn't terrible last time out (3 runs in 5 2/3 innings) but the fact that he had 0 K's (against 2 walks) shows he wasn't exactly dominant. He's got a 6.58 ERA overall. In two road starts, he's got a 7.87 ERA to go along with a 1.625 WHIP. In that span, just eight innings, he's served up three home runs. The Pirates have had real problems on the road. Look for that to continue here.

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs, 10* ANNIHILATOR) The Phillies may not win many games when anyone else pitches. However, they've been money when Hellickson is on the mound. In fact, in nine Hellickson starts, they're a highly profitable 8-1 (+9.1) vs. the money-line. It should be noted that six of those nine starts, including ALL four here at Philly, have been decided by a single run. Hellickson has a stellar 2.38 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in those four games. On the other hand, Chatwood is 3-6 with a 5.10 ERA overall, 1-3 on the road. He's 0-2 his last two starts, walking nine batters in 9 1/3 innings. It should also be noted that Chatwood is 0-2 his last two starts vs. the Phillies, walking eight batters in nine total innings. Hellickson's lone start vs. the Rockies resulted in an 8-1 win, Hellickson allowing just three hits (and 0 walks) through seven strong innings. While I like the Phillies' chances of winning "outright," in my opinion, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this price is a bargain.

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* ANNIHILATOR. Off back-to-back losses, this should be a great spot for the A's to bounce back with a victory. Gray checks in with a respectable 3.24 ERA and 1.26 WHIP his last three starts. Not bad considering they came against Boston, Texas and Detroit, three teams which rank in the top 15 in terms of runs scored. Last time out, Gray struck out eight Red Sox batters in six innings, en route to an 8-3 victory. Now, he'll face a Miami team which ranks 23rd in terms of runs scored. Volquez is now 0-6 on the season. That includes an 0-3 mark with a 5.51 ERA and 1.715 WHIP his last three. He last pitched against the A's last September and he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in just 3 1/3 innings. I'm going with the A's. 

I'm playing on LA/STL to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. Kershaw's last start against the Cards resulted in a 2-0 final. His previous start against the Cards was a 3-2 final. He had 20 combined K's in those two games, allowing just five combined hits. Lynn's last three starts vs. the Dodgers had final scores of 4-2, 2-3 and 3-2. Needless to say, all of those games finished below the total, the UNDER now 6-2 in his career vs. LA. Lynn has a 2.78 ERA (1.125 WHIP) through eight starts. Kershaw has a 2.15 ERA (0.894 WHIP) through nine starts, a 1.27 ERA his last three. Last time out, he allowed just three hits through seven shutout innings. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. The Giants took yesterday's game but the Cubs should bounce back here. The Cubs are 95-61 (+7.2) off a loss the past 2+ years. During that span, they're 47-28 (+4.5) as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. During that span, the Giants are 21-36 (-7.5) as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. Cueto with a 4.94 ERA in five road starts, allowing seven home runs. Lester with a 2.03 ERA in five home starts, allowing one home run. Lester 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA and .0932 WHIP vs. the Giants. Cubs win. Cubs win. 

I'm playing on NY 10* NL PERS FAV. Admittedly, he hasn't been all that good so far this season. That said, getting Harvey at home against Chacin and the Padres at this price is still a bargain. While Harvey still has a solid 1.056 WHIP in three home starts, Chacin has an awful 1.832 WHIP and 9.12 WHIP in five road starts. Harvey 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA against SD. Chacin, on the other hand, is 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six starts vs. the Mets. Chacin may have been better last time out, but Harvey gets the better of him here. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* AL PERS FAV. Off an embarrassing blowout loss, I expect the Mariners to bounce back this afternoon. Heston may not have pitched in the big leagues for awhile. However, he's thrown a no-hitter at this level before, so its not like he's not capable. He's got a solid 3.54 ERA in six starts for Tacoma this season. Holland's low ERA is a little deceiving, as he's already allowed 14 unearned runs. He's 0-2 his last two trips to Seattle, losing by a combined score of 13-8, allowing nine runs (15 hits, 5 walks) in 9 1/3 innings. Payback time this afternoon. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 10* PERS FAV. The Cards lost a tough one yesterday but I like their chances of bouncing back this afternoon. Wainwright is 2-1 with a respectable 3.86 ERA in four home starts. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings. On the other hand, Cain has an ugly 7.32 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in four road starts. The Giants are 0-3 in Cain's last three starts vs. the Cards, losing those games by a combined score of 26-6. I'm going with the Cards. 

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. The Rays are 4-1 when Archer starts here this season. In 33 2/3 innings here, he's recorded 44 K's while walking seven and allowing just one home run. He's got a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in those games. Sabathia, on the other hand, has a 4.93 ERA and 1.445 WHIP this season. Even off a strong start against the Royals, he's still got a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP his last three. Sabathia got the better of Archer at NY, last August. Payback time at Tampa this afternoon. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS 10* PERS FAV. Martinez entered the season with lofty expectations but got off to a slow start. He's turned things in a big way this month though, winning each of his three May starts. For the month, he's got a 2.70 ERA. He strikes out more than a batter per inning overall and he's got a solid 3.06 ERA and 1.08 WHIP here at home. Samardzija, on the other hand, is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA on the season. That includes a 0-3 record with a terrible 6.66 ERA on the road. It should also be noted that Samardzija gave up four home runs (in five innings) the last time that he pitched at St. Louis. Meanwhie, Martinez is 2-0 against the Giants, beating them 6-3 and 7-2. Cards bounce back with a big win.

I'm playing on NY 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR. The Mets badly need a victory and this is an excellent matchup for them to get one. DeGrom has a very respectable 3.06 ERA in three home starts, striking out a dominating 27 in 17 2/3 innings. He's given up two home runs in those three starts.

On the other hand, Nolasco has given up two home runs per game, in each of his past three starts and five of his last six. According to Statcast, only two other pitchers (with a minimum of 100 batted-balls) are getting hit harder than Nolasco. Overall, he's been taken deep 11 times. 

While DeGrom will have the advantage of starting against the Angels for the first time, the Mets are somewhat familiar with Nolasco - although its been a few years now. He's just 6-8 with a poor 5.11 in 24 starts against NY.

While the Mets admittedly haven't been too good at home, the Angels have been even worse on the road. They're just 7-13 away from home, averaging only 3.2 runs. That includes a 1-6 (-4.7) mark when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. 

Enough's enough. Mets stop the bleeding with a big win. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* PERS FAV. Gavigioli and the M's get a very favorable matchup here. Not only are the White Sox really struggling as a team but Covey is in terrible form. Through six starts, he's 0-3 with an ugly 7.98 ERA and 1.875 WHIP. He's not getting any better either. In fact, he's arguably just getting worse. He's given up two home runs in each of his last three starts, a total of six home runs allowed in a span of 15 innings. With Covey averaging less than five innings per start, the Sox are likely going to have to turn to their bullpen early. The Sox, who haven't had a day off since May 8, just got swept at LA though, allowing 24 runs. They got less than six innings from yesterday's starter after seeing Tuesday's game go to extra innings. In other words, their bullpen isn't exactly fresh. The M's, who are off a 4-0 shutout win, are already 6-1 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They won't hesitate to take advantage of their struggling guests. 

I'm playing KC on run-line 10* ANNIHILATOR. (+1.5 runs) While they lost yesterday's opener, the Royals have still won four of fice and six of eight. The Yankees have still lost four of six. While I like the Royals' chances of bouncing back with an "outright" win, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this very reasonable price is even more appealing. Admittedly, Vargas' history vs. the Yankees is less than impressive. However, those numbers are from years ago. He's only faced them a few times since Sept. 2011, most recently in 2015. In fact, his most recent "home" start vs. the Yankees saw him allow just one run and only three hits through 6 2/3 innings. He didn't get the win but his team did, a 2-1 victory against Nova. This season, Vargas is 3-0 with a dominant 0.34 ERA in four home starts. In 26 2/3 innings here, he's only allowed one run! On the other hand, Pineda has a poor 5.52 ERA through three road starts. Note that Pineda, who got rocked in both 2016 starts (0-2 record, 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings) against KC, has seen each of his last two starts decided by a single run. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

II'm playing on Minnesota/Cleveland to finish OVER the total 10* O/U BEST BET. While yesterday's game resulted in a pitcher's duel, I expect the bats to come alive this afternoon. Berrios gets the call for the Twins. While he's a fairly highly rated prospect who has been pitching well at AAA Rochester, he also got destroyed when he was called up to the big leagues last year. He'd finish with a 3-7 record to go along with an awful 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. The Indians got to see plenty of him, too. He made three starts against Cleveland going 1-2 with a 7.81 ERA. Those three starts averaged 12 combined runs. Berrios' lone start here at Cleveland finished with a score of 12-5. Clevinger has a career 4.76 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. While he did manage to throw 5 2/3 shutout innings in his only previous start this season, the fact that he had 4 walks was a bit concerning. He has an 1.801 WHIP in two starts vs. the Twins and didn't pitch five full innings in either of them. His lone home start vs. Minnesota finished with 11 runs. Don't be surprised when this one also reaches "double-digits."

I'm playing on SF 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Giants got back on track last night and should take some positive momentum into this afternoon's game. While I successfully played against the Giants in Moore's last start, that was on the road. In three home starts, Moore has a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.016 WHIP, averaging nearly seven innings per home start. He'll face a Reds team which is an ugly 32-50 against southpaws the past 2+ seasons. Bonilla hasn't made a big league start since 2014. He threw five innings of relief this season and allowed four earned runs, a 7.20 ERA. In Moore's last start here, he limited the Dodgers to just one run through seven innings, on only two hits. Look for Moore, who had 8 K's in that game, to get the better of Bonilla this afternoon, the Giants finishing on top once again. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PERS FAV. The Sox could badly use a victory. A home game against Chacin and the Padres should be just what the doctor ordered. The Padres are doing their thing. With yesterday's loss, they're now 6-14 (-5.6) away from Petco. Chacin has done his part to help contribute to the losing. In four road starts, he's 1-3 with a dreadful 10.71 ERA and 2.018 WHIP. On the other hand, Gonzalez is 2-0 with a superb 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP here at Chicago. Gonzalez is backed by a Chicago bullpen which has a 6-1 record and a 2.29 ERA, converting all but one of its save chances. Chacin has the support of a SD bullpen which has a 4-9 record, a 5.23 ERA and which has already blown four saves. Off a hard-luck loss (he allowed only two runs in 6 2/3 innings) at Baltimore last time out, expect Gonzalez to "bounce back" and get the better of Chacin. 

I'm playing on SF 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Giants closed out their road trip with a much needed win at NY yesterday afternoon. That snapped a 5-game skid and figures to make the flight home considerably more tolerable. Back home, facing a Reds team which beat up on them at Cincinnati last week, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Admittedly, Blach was not good (at Cincinnati) last time out. The Reds really roughed him up. However, he's back home now where he's got a stellar 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two starts. Back in comfortable surroundings, I expect an entirely different performance. Arroyo has made two road starts and has given up a total of 10 earned runs in just eight innings. He's walked seven while striking out just five. That all translates to a 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Even with last week's win against Blach, the Reds are still a dismal 31-50 against southpaw starters, the past 2+ seasons. Payback time. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON 10* PERS FAV. The O's check in as the much hotter team. However, the Nats are favored for good reason here. Scherzer is off a dominant effort. Last time out, he allowed just two hits and one run, recording 11 K's. He's 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.784 WHIP on the road this season. He made one start against the O's last season. He won that 8/25 game by a 4-0 score allowing a mere two hits through eight shutout innings, recording 10 K's. Jimenez, who was the loser in that game, has a 9.40 ERA and 2.089 WHIP on the road. He got rocked last time out, giving up seven runs (six earned) in 3 1/3 innings. He gave up two home runs. Look for Scherzer to get the better of Jimenez in another Nats win. 

I'm playing on SD 10* PERS FAV. Cahill is 2-0 with an outstanding 0.69 ERA in two home starts. He's allowed just one run in 13 innings here. During that span, he's struck out 13 while walking only one. Last time out, he dominated the Rockies. On the other hand, Martinez is coming off an ugly start at Houston, giving up seven runs (6 earned) in just 5 1/3 innings. He walked three batters, served up three home runs and didn't strike out a single batter. Expect Cahill to get the better of Martinez, the Padres grabbing the opener. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* PERS FAV. Nolasco got the better of Graveman when these starters squared off against each other at LA. However, Graveman was better when they met at Oakland. Already opposing each other for the third time, with this game being played at Oakland, I expect the A's to have the advantage. Graveman has a 2.45 ERA at home. Nolasco, on the other hand, has a 5.06 ERA (1.686 WHIP) in three road starts. Overall, the Angels are 6-11 on the road, where they average just 3.2 runs and hit only .226. Going back further finds them at a dismal 76-103 (-17.7) on the road the past 2+ seasons. Expect Graveman to get the better of Nolasco, the A's grabbing the opener. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* MAIN EVENT. I've successfully played against the Cubs a couple of times already on "Sunday Night Baseball." (In their first game of the season, I played against them on Sunday night and they lost 4-3 against the Cards. Last Sunday, I played against them and they lost 6-2 at Boston.) However, this should be an excellent spot to back them. Severino goes for the Yankees and he got roughed up last time out. In 5 2/3 innings, he gave up five runs on eight hits, two of those leaving the yard. The strikeouts were down too, as he only managed three while walking two. Lester, on the other hand, is off an 8-3 win and has a 1.50 ERA (1.056 WHIP) through three home starts. That 8-3 win happened to come the last time that the Cubs had allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game, something they did again yesterday. Lester's also 13-6 vs. NY, last tossing a gem in a 2-1 win against the Yankees back in 2014. Put away the brooms Yankee fans, no sweep here. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 10* PERS FAV. Cole may be 0-2 his last three starts, but he's also got a stellar 1.89 ERA and 0.842 WHIP, striking out 23 while walking just three. In his last home start, he limited the Cubs to two hits and a single unearned run, through seven complete innings. Garza, who has been taken deep in both starts, has yet to start on the road this season. He was 0-2 in his last two starts against the Pirates last season, allowing 13 hits (and 5 walks) in 9 1/3 innings. Cole's last home start against the Brewers was in 2015, a 5-2 victory over Garza. More of the same this evening.

I'm playing KC on the run-line. (+1.5) runs 10* ANNIHILATOR. I quite like the Royals' chances of winning "outright." However, in a game that could well be close, if they're going to offer an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price, I feel thats where the best value lies. Tomlin is 2-3 with an 8.87 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. On the other hand, Vargas is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.979 WHIP. At home, he's 3-0 with a spectacular 0.44 ERA and 0.822 WHIP. Averaging just shy of seven complete innings at home, he has yet to allow a HR here. Given that Tomlin's last three starts vs. the Royals were all close 1-run games, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs.

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* ANNIHILATOR. I successfully played against the Cubs in Hendricks' last start. However, that was at Fenway and the fact that Chicago lost wasn't his fault. He'd toss six complete innings, allowing two runs on only three hits. That came on the heels of six shutout innings vs. the Pirates, a 1-0 win. Pineda, on the other hand, went 5 1/3 innings last time out after going just five innings in his previous start. In two road starts, he's got an ugly 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. While the Yankees are a mediocre 23-23 in Interleague play the past 2+ seasons, the Cubs are 30-20. I like their chances of improving on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* ROAST. I won with the M's yesterday and I'm backing them again this evening. Things weren't looking good in Seattle for awhile last night. Playing in front of less than 14,000 fans, the Mariners entered Wednesday on a 3-game slide. Having blown an early 4-0 lead, they were in danger in losing four straight. They rallied for a late 8-7 win though, the type that they can build positive momentum from. Miranda has a 2.94 ERA and 0.978 WHIP his last three starts. In his last home start, he tossed seven shutout innings, en route to a 6-1 win. In his last start against the Angels, he tossed six shutout innings, en route to an 8-1 win. A day after that, Meyer lost 8-0 against the Mariners, giving up a pair of home runs in four innings. Here only due to an injury to Skaggs, Meyer went only 3 2/3 innings in his first start and walked four batters in the process. With the M's averaging 5.4 runs per game at home, compared to LA's 3.2 runs per game on the road, I'm backing Seattle.

I'm playing on Chicago/KC to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. The first three games of this series have all produced seven or fewer combined runs. All signs point to more of the same in this afternoon's finale. Kennedy has a stellar 2.30 ERA and 0.989 WHIP through five starts. In three home starts, his ERA dips to a mere 1.86, his WHIP falling to 0.828. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.33 ERA and 0.738 WHIP. Holland hasn't been quite as sharp as Kennedy, but he's been solid all the same. Off back-to-back quality starts, he's got a 3.41 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. Holland hasn't faced the Royals since 2014, he faced them once that year and also once in 2013. He was excellent in both games, allowing a combined two earned runs in 14 innings. Meanwhile, Kennedy has allowed a mere three earned runs in 18+ innings, over his last three starts (all last season) against the Sox. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on KC 10* PERS FAV. The Royals got back on track yesterday and they should be able to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Kennedy has a stellar 2.30 ERA and 0.989 WHIP through five starts. In three home starts, his ERA dips to a mere 1.86, his WHIP falling to 0.828. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.33 ERA and 0.738 WHIP. Holland hasn't been as sharp as Kennedy, as he's got a 4.76 ERA and 1.412 WHIP over his last three starts. Kennedy is just 1-0 his last three starts against Chicago, despite pitching very well (3 runs in 18+ innings) in all three games. The last two of those were against Sale though. Taking a step down in class to take on Holland, expect Kennedy and co. to take advantage.