I'm playing BOSTON on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The first two games of this series have both been "close." The Yankees won by one run in 11 innings on Thursday and by two runs yesterday. While I like Boston's chances of winning Sunday's finale "outright," in what could well prove to be another close one, the extra +1.5 runs could prove invaluable. The Yankees had Cole and Severino on the mound in the first two games. Montgomery gets the call in this one though and he doesn't look good, entering the season. After getting rocked by the Jays in a spring start, Montgomery commented: "Honestly, I was just kind of nervous and tense. I wanted to get it out of the way. I wanted to work on my fastball location and got a little wild, trying to overthrow ..." Manager Aaron Boone added: "He just didn't quite have that last gear on his fastball. He's probably just getting in a really good rhythm mechanically with his delivery and stuff. He wasn’t quite gripping it ..." Montgomery, who had historically been decent in the exhibition seasons, would finish the spring with a 7.36 ERA and 2.45 WHIP. Yes, that's very limited innings. However, that's the problem. He just hasn't had the innings to work out his issues. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins haven't treated me very well so far. Needless to say, they were hoping for a better start. Its a new day though and this is a favorable matchup. Ober checks in off an outstanding spring. In four starts, he posted a 1.50 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. The 26-year old got his feet wet last season. He quietly struck out more than a batter per inning, fanning 96 in 92.1 innings, while recording a very solid 1.20 WHIP. Gonzales had a 4.08 ERA in his four spring starts. Speaking of Gonzales, he faced the Twins almost exactly one year ago, on 4/8/21. In that game, he allowed nine hits (2 HR's) and seven earned runs, while lasting just 4 1/3 innings. With Ober having allowed four or fewer earned runs in each of his past 14 starts and 19 of 20 for his career, I say the Twins bounce back. 

I'm playing on SD/Arizona OVER the total. The first two games of this series have been low-scoring. However, I expect the bats to come alive in this one. Neither starter was too sharp in the spring. Davies posted a poor 4.91 ERA through two spring starts. In just over seven innings, he was taken deep twice, hit a batter and surrendered two walks. Musgrove was worse. In three spring starts, he had an ugly 7.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Musgrove had been hoping to pitch the Padres' home opener. The last time that Musgrove pitched here, he gave up 10 hits and six runs, in just five innings. The OVER is 6-0 the past six times that Arizona faced a team which allowed two earned runs or less the previous game. With the OVER also 6-1 the past seven times that SD played the third game of a series, I see this one reaching double-digits. 

I'm playing on Miami/SF UNDER the total. Both these starters are poised for potentially big seasons; I'm expecting to see some quality pitching this afternoon. Alcantara had two bad starts last season, one at LA and one at Colorado. Outside of those games, he had a 2.47 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 197K's in 200 innings. While he didn't get a chance for too many innings, Alcantara is also coming off an outstanding spring, as he posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.14 WHIP. (That WHIP isn't a mispring, he only allowed one baserunner in seven innings.) Webb got off to a slow start last season and he'll be looking to correct that here. From May onwards, he was terrific though. You may recall him dominating the Dodgers in a pair of NLDS games. Don't be surprised when this one results in a pitcher's duel. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. As you probably know, these teams were supposed to play yesterday. While today's weather will be a bit chilly and windy, they'll be able to play. At first glance, this line may cause some to scratch their heads. After all, shouldn't the reigning AL Cy Young award winner be favored over relatively inexperienced Joe Ryan. In fact, with names like Gray, Archer and Bundy in the rotation, some may wonder what Ryan is even getting the Opening Day start at all. He's here for good reason though. As Rocco Baldelli noted: "He's absolutely earned the opportunity to go out there in the first game of the season for us, pitch Opening Day." Indeed, he was dominant in stretches last season and he carried it over into spring. Baldelli went on to say: "He's pitched well from the first day I've ever seen him pitch, and came into camp in a really good spot, put himself in a good position, and this is the way things fell for him. The reason things fall like this is because the player did such a great job getting ready to go, and he's continued to go out there and pitch well in all types of outings all spring long." Of course, the Twins made some big moves in the offseason, including adding Correa to the lineup. They should be improved this season and I see that starting this afternoon. 

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Homefield hasn't meant much in the World Series in recent seasons. It hasn't been that big a deal this year either. The Braves won Game 1 here at Houston, while the Astros won Game 5, at Atlanta. I like the Braves to close things out on the road, here in Game 6. That said, in what could well be another close one, I'm willing to pay extra for the luxury of having an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Yes, we pay a lot for those runs. With these two scrappy teams, both scratching and clawing for every run, a 1-run game is a real possibilty. Yes, the boxscore will show that Fried struggled and he admitted "I'm not happy about it." That said, he had some bad luck work against him which led to one bad inning. He retired 10 straight batters after that and he'll be ready to take that momentum into Tuesday's start. The Braves bullpen had seen a lot of innings and will benefit from having Monday off. The Astros have lost four of Garcia's last five starts. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. (Action) While their backs are obviously against the wall, I'm not counting the Astros out yet. Valdez was great in this postseason's lone road start, Game 5, at Fenway. He limited the Red Sox to one run, on only three hits, through eight complete innings. Recall the setup for that game. Valdez had struggled at home, in Game 1, but bounced back big on the road for Game 5. Similar setup here. Remember, Valdez was also outstanding against the Rays in the ALCS last year. Once again, I expect him to bounce back with a much better effort. Carlos Correa said this of Valdez: "He takes a lot of pride in his outings. What I love about him is he's able to make those adjustments. You saw it in the series against Boston. It was a masterful performance the second time around. We expect that from him Sunday, to go out and make the adjustment." Dusty Baker added: "We've had our backs to the wall before. Our guys know what to do. There's not a whole lot to be said. We know what we have to do." Bring on November baseball. This one's done yet. 

I'm playing on Houston/Atlanta UNDER the total. I'm expecting a pitcher's duel on Friday night. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA through seven career postseason starts, striking out 36 in 30 2/3 innings. His last start was a 4-2 final against the Dodgers. Three of his past four starts have finished with eight or fewer combined runs. All four finished with nine or less. Garcia was brilliant last time out. In fact, he took a no-hitter into the 6th inning. It was the second most number of "no-hit" innings by a rookie, in playoff history. He'll carry the confidence from that 5-0 victory into Friday's start. The bullpens had Thursday off and the starters will benefit from the fact that the hitters aren't familiar with them. Look for a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. Yesterday, we saw the Houston/Boston series finally produce a low-scoring game. Tonight, I expect the same to be true in the LA/Atlanta series. Anderson may not have been at his best last time out, but he's still got a 2.57 ERA his past three starts, two of which fell below the total. Even better, he's still got an outstanding 1.35 ERA through six career postseason starts, striking out 32 in 26 2/3 innings. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Boston/Houston UNDER the total. Expect a run of 'overs' to come to an end this evening. While Garcia didn't fare well at Houston last time out, he's got a 2.92 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 14 home starts. Eleven of those games stayed below the total. Look for him to be much better. Eolvaldi has given up three runs or less in four straight starts, allowing a total of just six in those four games. Going back further finds that he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his past 13 starts. The Yankees were the only team to score more against him during that stretch. The bullpens benefit from yesterday's day off. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on LA. Of course, I respect the Braves. They've had a great run and I won with them last night. Of course, I respect Anderson. He's been superb in the postseason and I won (a free play) with him in his last start. The Dodgers have been getting it done all year though and they've got Scherzer on the mound. There was talk of "Mad Max" going in Game 1 but after he closed out Game 5 against SF, they pushed him back until today. I fully expect him to do his thing. Anderson faced the Dodgers once this season. It didn't go too well. LA won by a 9-5 score. Anderson gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Scherzer's teams (Wash + LA) were 2-0 in his 2021 starts against Atlanta. I say LA bounces back. 

I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. Both starters were excellent in their opening start. Webb completely dominated the Dodgers in Game 1. He held them scoreless through 7 2/3 innings. He struck out 10 without walking a batter. He's 7-0 with a stingy 1.80 ERA (0.937 WHIP) in 13 home starts. Ten of those have finished below the total. Urias (21-3) held the Giants to one run through five innings in Game 2.  Over his last three starts, he's surrendered just two combined runs through 16 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.10 ERA and 0.796 WHIP. Urias and Webb have gone h2h against each other a few times this season. Two of three finished below the total and the game here at SF had a final score of 2-1. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on LA. (Action) Last night's 1-0 loss has the Dodgers on the brink of elimination. I'm not counting them out yet! While he's certainly had a I'm not solid year, I'm not completely sold on Desclafani. He's still got a career ERA above four and the Dodgers have seen him A LOT this season. Six times, in fact. Three at SF and three here at LA. Even banged-up, this is a very dangerous Dodger lineup; one which is highly familiar with Desclafani. It should be pointed out that Desclafani only gave up a single HR in the the three starts against the Dodgers, at SF. However, he was taken deep in all three games here at LA, a total of five times in 15 2/3 innings. The Dodgers are 10-2 the last 12 times that they were shutout. Expect them to bounce back and even up the series. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While coming back in the series obviously won't be easy, the Sox aren't going to go down without a fight. Back home, with Cease on the mound, I expect them to find a way. Cease is in outstanding form. He's 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA his last three starts. On the season, he was 6-2 with a solid 3.18 ERA and 1.176 WHIP at home. Garcia, on the other hand, had a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.336 WHIP, in his 15 road starts. While Cease last allowed a HR a month ago, Garcia served up two (in five innings) in his last start alone. The Sox are still 45-27 off a loss. Don't count them out quite yet. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Houston UNDER for the first five innings. Yesterday's game started out on a fairly high-scoring pace. Runs were scored (all by Houston) in the second, third, fourth and fifth innings. By the bottom of the fifth it was 6-0. However, the scoring dried up after that and only one run was scored the rest of the way. I expect the quality pitching from the second half of yesterday's game to carry over into the beginning of this one. Giolito has a sparkling 1.10 ERA his past three starts. Valdez has a 2.41 ERA his past three. Both have excellent postseason numbers, too. Valdez is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four playoff appearances, three starts. Giolito has a 1.29 ERA and a miniscule 0.43 WHIP from his lone playoff start. You may recall that he had a perfect game through six innings before giving up his first baserunner in the 7th. The Sox won 4-1; the score was 3-0 through five innings. Look for another low-scoring start this afternoon. 

I'm playing BOSTON on the run-line. (+1.5 runs.) I really like Boston's chances of winning this one "outright." That said, a very close game won't surprise and having an extra +1.5 runs to work with may prove invaluable. While the Rays had the better record, I like the momentum that the Red Sox bring into this game. They scratched and clawed their way here. Off the comeback win over Washington and then beating Cole in the Wildcard, their confidence is sky high. They're too well-coached to suffer a letdown. They know this matchup provides a great opportunity to grab an early lead in the series. Neither Rodriquez or McClanahan has a very good ERA in their past playoff performances; though those were primarily out of the bullpen. However, a closer look shows that Rodriguez has 11 K's in 10 playoff innings and he's got a 1.20 WHIP. McClanahan, on the other hand, has an ugly 2.31 WHIP in his 4 1/3 previous playoff innings. The Rays are 2-3 in McClanahan's last five starts; he didn't go more than five innings in any of them. They won his last start but that victory came by only one run. Rodriguez was 8-4 (team was 12-6) in 18 road starts. That included a 2-0 record for the Sox in his two starts here at Tampa. Both were quality. One was h2h against McClanahan; Rodriguez tossed six shutout innings en route to a 4-0 win. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on Boston/NY UNDER the total. Needless to say, both teams have some great hitters. That said, these starters are still capable of limiting the damage. Cole has had a couple of shaky starts of late and I successfully played against the Yankees in his last start. Still, he remains one of the best in the world and is absolutely able to rise to the occasion. Eovaldi doesn't get as many K's as Cole but he gets it done here, more often than not. In 19 starts here, he was 6-4 with a solid 3.39 ERA and 1.114 WHIP. The Yankees/Rays game on the final day of the regular season finished at 1-0. The Yankees only managed six runs in the 3-game series. Both bullpens had yesterday and it's all hands on deck for a game of this magnitude. I'm expecting runs to be hard to come by and for the final combined score to stay below the total. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the RL. (+1.5 runs) With the Indians favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Rangers, at a very reasonable price. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While the Rangers' record is obviously pretty bad, this is a team which is still fighting hard. Lyles is off a quality start, as he is also still fighting hard. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in three of his past four starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all three. (He didn't pitch as well in the other.) Those three games had scores of 8-1 and 4-3, in favor of the Rangers. The other was a 1-run loss, Texas losing 3-2. McKenzie, on the other hand, has a 7.82 ERA and 1.738 WHIP his past three starts. He had previously been pitching well but in his last two starts, both losses, he's given up 10 earned runs in 6 2/3 combined innings. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with the Rangers. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I won with the Rockies (and the over) in their last game but I expect them to stumble in this one. Gray gave up two home runs (4 runs) in 4 2/3 innings last game. He's 3-7 with a 4.73 ERA on the road. He gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings when he faced the Dbax (at Colorado) in late August. Arizona won 8-4. Despite facing the Dodgers and Houston, two possible World Series teams, in his last two games and the streaking Mariners before that, Castellanos has allowed three earned runs in three straight starts, going at least five innings in each. This is a big step down in class from the teams he's been facing. When he started against the Rockies earlier, he tossed four shutout innings. Arizona won 6-4. Gray's last start here at Arizona was a 1-run game, Arizona winning 4-3. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. What a race in the AL East. The Jays stayed alive with a very important win yesterday. Boston won too, however. Therefore, the Jays are still on the outside looking in though; if the season ended today, they wouldn't earn a Wild Card Spot. In other words, today's game is also critical. Beating the Yankees is never easy. After beating Cole yesterday, however, the Jays know they can do the same against Kluber. Kluber has a 5.00 ERA in seven road starts. Ray, on the other hand, is 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA in his 16 "home" starts. Kluber has a 4.40 ERA his past three, Ray has a 2.55 ERA his past three. Kluber lasted only three and four innings his past two starts against Toronto. The Jays won both. I say they get it done again, making things even more interesting in the highly competitive AL East. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros gave up two runs in the top of the first inning last night. It took until the bottom of the eighth inning for them to finally tie the game at 2-2. Then, they immediately squandered the lead in the top of the 9th, falling behind 3-2. They didn't hang their heads though. Instead, Houston rallied to win 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th. That victory snapped a 4-game losing streak and is exactly the type of win that the Astros needed. While that victory figures to provide positive momentum, Tampa's loss was absolutely of the deflating variety. Garcia has been outstanding at home all season. He averages nearly six innings per start (here) and is 6-3 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in 12 starts here. While Rasmussen has pitched well on the road, he averages only four innings per start. Now, he's up against the team with the best batting average in baseball. After last night's win, Castro commented: "It was huge ..." Dusty Baker added: "We certainly didn't need to lose another one ... These guys, they rise to the occasion. I'm glad we were home and glad we had the energy from the fans. I had to remove myself from being a fan. That was a good game to watch; good game to play." I say there's more celebrating in store for the Astros this evening. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While I respect the Rays, I really like how this one sets up for the Astros. Off four straight losses, Monday's off day came at the right time. Note that the Astros are a dominant 43-14 their last 57, when playing with a day off. While the playoffs have long been a certainty, Houston will be anxious to snap the losing streak. Also, the Astros haven't offiicially clinched yet, thanks to the skid. That's going to provide plenty of motivation. A home game with Urquidy on the mound should be just what the doctor ordered. In eight starts here, Urquidy is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA and a stellar 0.875 WHIP. On the other hand, Wacha is 1-4 with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.527 WHIP in 12 road starts. The Rays have lost Wacha's last two starts; he gave up six runs last time out. The Astros have won Urquidy's last two starts, scoring 17 runs in the process. Urquidy tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits, when he faced the Rays back in the spring. That was at Tampa but the Astros are also 8-2 the past 10 meetings here at Houston, 5-1 the past six. Expect them to improve on those stats Tuesday. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO (action) Yes, the Braves have far more to play for. They're battling the Phillies to see who wins the NL East. San Diego isn't going to make it easy though. The Padres are still 45-35 at home and they're going to have an edge on the mound in this one. While the Padres have had a disappointing season, Musgrove has not. In 15 home starts, he's 6-4 with a solid 2.78 ERA and 1.076 WHIP. Chavez, on the other hand, has only made two starts. Normally a reliever, he's 0-1 with a 4.92 ERA to show for those two starts. He won't be around long. With Musgrove outlasting Chavez, the fact that both bullpens got used up yesterday becomes significant. With Musgrove outlasting Chavez, I say the Padres show some price. No sweep today.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds got back on track Friday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While the playoffs are out of the question, the Reds are still competitive (41-37) at home. Gutierrez has done his part. While he certainly hasn't been dominant, he generally keeps the Reds in the game; he's a respectable 9-6 with a 4.53 ERA on the season. The Reds scored nine runs the last time that he pitched and they should provide decent run support again today. Fedde has a good K/W ratio recently but he's also been giving up home runs in bunches. He allowed three last time out. In fact, he's allowed six HR's in his past two road starts, a span of only 11 innings. Expect the Reds to take him deep at least once today, the Nats falling to 29-48 on the road. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. These teams have split the first two games of the series. The Marlins won a close one Monday and the Nationals pulled away for a big win last night. On Wednesday, the Marlins should enjoy the advantage. Gray has made 10 starts and has allowed at least one HR in EVERY one of them. Over 49 innings, he's served up 15 of them. Hernandez, on the other hand, has kept the ball in the park in each of his last two starts. Overall, Hernandez has a very solid 2.70 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in five home starts. He's got a 3.52 ERA his past three starts overall. Meanwhile, Gray has a dismal 10.80 ERA his past three starts. He's given up a minimum of five runs in each of his past four starts, despite averaging less than five innings. The Marlins won with Hernandez on the mound against Washington last month and they get it done again here.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. (Action) The Royals jumped all over the Indians in Game 1 of yesterday's double-header. Then, they did it again in Game 2. Today, however, the Indians should have a significant advantage. In 12 home starts, Quantrill is 4-0 with a superb 2.35 ERA and 1.029 WHIP. Over his past three starts, he's got a 2.65 ERA and 0.983 WHIP. On the other hand, Lynch is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA his past three starts. Prior to yesterday, the Indians had thrived as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They've won Quantrill's last two starts by a combined score of 16-4 and I say they bounce back with another big win. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs). These same starters just faced each other, at Washington. Pitching in his home park, Fedde got the better of Luzardo. With this evening's rematch being played at Miami, I like Luzardo's chances of returning the favor. While the Marlins are just 24-50 on the road, they're a respectable 39-36 at home. That includes a 5-2 mark in Luzardo's home starts. (Overall, his teams are 7-4 in his "home" starts.) In fact, the Marlins are 3-0 in Luzardo's last three starts here, wins against the Reds, Phillies and Mets. He allowed three or fewer runs in each of those games. Yes, Fedde did also get the better of Luzardo in a game here last month. Still, the Nats are just 26-45 on the road and Fedde has been rocked in both road starts since. Yesterday's victory was the kind of win that can provide positive momentum for the Marlins. Expect AT LEAST another "run-line" cover.

I'm playing MIAMI (Action) This series hasn't gone as planned for the Marlins but I expect them to bounce back in this afternoon's finale. While his record doesn't show it, Alcantara has been great here all season. In 14 starts here, he's got a dominant 2.21 ERA and 0.897 WHIP, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.93 ERA and 0.600 WHIP. It should also be noted that Alcantara has an outstanding 1.61 ERA in 11 daytime starts, much better than his 4.03 ERA under the lights. Marlins respond. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Taking the extra +1.5 runs has continued to prove worthwhile, in games I expect to be of the close variety. Yesterday, the extra +1.5 runs turned the Mets from a loser into a winner. While I like KC to win this one "outright," I'm again happy to lay the short price in order to gain an extra +1.5 runs. The Mariners have lost Kikuchi's last two starts. Last time he pitched on the road, he allowed six runs (four earned) in just 1 2/3 innings. Going back a bit further finds that the M's are just 1-4 his past five starts, one of the losses coming against these same Royals. Kikuchi allowed four runs in five innings. On the other hand, the Royals are 4-0 in Bubic's last four starts, one of those a victory against Seattle. In fact, they're 8-2 his last 10 starts. Note that five of those, including the Seattle game, were decided by a single run. Royals bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Reds cooled off the Pirates yesterday, a 1-0 Cincinnati win in the finale of that series. The Marlins had the day off. That should work in Miami's favor here. Fresh off getting blanked and seeing their positive momentum come to an end, the Pirates go from playing spoiler against a division rival to facing a non-playoff team from outside their division. That sets them up for a letdown here. In addition to having the venue and schedule in their favor, the Marlins should have a significant edge on the mound. Hernandez doesn't go deep into games but he's solid when he's in there. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start, except one, this season. (He allowed four in that one.) When he faced the Pirates earlier, Hernandez allowed one run, on only three hits, through five complete. He struck out six without walking a batter. While Hernandez didn't get much for run support that day, the Marlins should provide him with plenty of support in this one. Crowe has a 9.75 ERA and 1.917 WHIP his past three starts. Last time on the road, he served up three home runs in three innings. In 10 road starts this season, he's got a 6.95 ERA. The Marlins also have a big edge in the bullpen department; Miami relievers have a combined 3.05 ERA at home while Pirate relievers have an ERA above five on the road. Miami rolls. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* TOP GUN). Yesterday didn't go as planned but I expect the Reds to respond today. Gutierrez was solid last time out but didn't receive any support. He allowed one run, on just two hits, through five complete innings. He struck out six while walking two. On the season, he's 6-2 with 3.43 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. On the other hand, Keller is 2-8 with a terrible 8.20 ERA and 2.049 WHIP in 12 home starts. Like Gutierrez, Keller went five innings in his last start. However, while https://cappers.picksandparlays.net/picks/create?game_id=197632Gutierrez was allowing two hits, Keller surrendered 10 of them. These two went h2h back on 8/7. Gutierrez allowed one run in six innings. Keller allowed four runs in five innings. The Reds won 11-3. More of the same in this one. 

I'm playing on Toronto/TB UNDER the total. Yes, the Blue Jay bats have been hot. Same for the Tampa bats, before yesterday. However, both starters are in excellent form and I'm expecting a pitcher's duel this evening. Berrios is 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP his past three starts. Over that 3-game span, he's struck out 26 while walking just two. Dominant numbers. Rasmussen doesn't go deep into games but he's also allowed one run or less in six straight starts. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.93 ERA with 8 K's against just one walk. He hasn't allowed a HR in any of his past five starts either. Prior to yesterday's "push," the UNDER was a perfect 5-0 the past five times that these teams faced each other. Look for a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing CLEVELAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Indians got back on track yesterday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Morgan was sharp last time out. In fact, he limited the Red Sox to only three hits, through 5 2/3 shutout innings. He would strike out seven along the way. Note that Cleveland still lost by a run, a 4-3 final. That's five of Morgan's last 10 starts which were decided by a single run, including three 1-run losses. In other words, getting that extra +1.5 runs could well prove significant. Houser has been very tough at home but more mediocre on the road. Last time he pitched on the road, he allowed five runs in five innings. That resulted in a 6-4 loss. For the season, he's got a 4.37 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. The Brewers are just 5-10 in IL play. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the home team.

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's have gotten cold at the wrong time. As a result, it's looking more and more like both Wild Card teams will be coming from the AL East. That said, the A's aren't completely out of the race yet. They've got an advantage on the mound this evening, in terms of starting pitcher's current form, and I expect them finally bounce back and stop the bleeding. Keuchel and the Sox got the better of Montas and the A's, at Chicago, last month. Montas has been outstanding ever since though. He's 2-0 with a superb 1.31 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his past three starts. On the other hand, Keuchel is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. He's 0-2 with a terrible 16.00 ERA and 3.111 WHIP his past three starts. (That's more than three baserunners allowed per inning!) A whopping 23 hits, to go along with five walks, allowed in just nine combined innings. Montas outpitches Keuchel and the A's keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds lost a costly one yesterday. This is a very favorable matchup though and I fully expect them to bounce back. Gray has been taking his game to another level lately. The Reds are a perfect 4-0 his last four starts. Over his last three starts, Gray is 3-0 with a dominating 1.00 ERA and a microscopic 0.556 WHIP. The Reds won those three games by a combined score of 22-6. Gray last faced the Reds in early July, Cincinnati winning 2-1. Gray gave up a single run, while striking out eight. The Reds have seen Steele far more recently, as they just faced him on 8/16. In four innings, the Reds had eight baserunners (2.00 WHIP) as they had five hits and three walks. In other words, Steele wasn't exactly fooling anyone. (The Reds won by a score of 14-5.) In two home starts, Steele has an ugly 7.27 ERA and 1.499 WHIP. While the Cubs have managed a few recent wins, the current lineup is far from intimidating. Reds roll. 

I'm playing on Toronto/Oakland UNDER the total. While yesterday's series opener was a wild one, we should see pitching take center stage this afternoon. Toronto fans were starting to grumble about the Berrios deal at the deadline, as they gave up a lot to get him. He silenced the doubters last time out though, deliving a dominant performance. Through seven innings, he gave up just one run - and it was unearned. He recorded 11 K's without walking a single batter. The final score was 2-1. That'll give him plenty of confidence heading into this afternoon's start. Berrios' previous start also finished below the total, a 5-2 final. Five of his last seven starts have stayed under the number. Blackburn was also sharp last time out. He held the big hitting Yankees scoreless through five innings, en route to a 3-1 win. That was his third straight start which stayed beneath the total. More of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Every series is huge for both these teams right now. Both are unlikely to make the Wild Card but neither is eliminated yet. The Jays are even further behind so things are even more desperate for them. For the opener, it's Manaea vs. Manoah and the latter is in much better form. In August, Manaea was 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.90 WHIP through five starts. Manoah, on the other hand, just continues to get it done. Off b2b quality starts, he's now allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his past nine starts.  Check this out. In those entire nine starts, Manoah has only allowed two combined HR's. He went six or more innings in the majority of them, too. On the other hand, Manaea served up three HR's in his last start alone, a span of just 4 1/3 innings. He's now given up a whopping seven HR's in his past three starts, a span of 14 innings. While Toronto benefitted from an off-day yesterday, the A's had to play an afternoon game, at Detroit. Jays roll. 

I'm playing on Houston/Seattle OVER the total. The Mariners have seen their recent games finish below the total and they're off another low-scoring game last night. The bats will wake up for this afternoon's matchup though. Odorizzi and Gilbert just opposed each other two starts ago. That 8/21 game saw 16 runs produced. Including that result, the OVER is 7-1 the past eight times that Gilbert was on the mound. He's got a dreadful 13.50 ERA and 2.131 WHIP his past three starts. In 10 home starts, he's got a 5.66 ERA. Odorizzi, meanwhile, has a poor 5.14 ERA in 10 road starts. Despite neither starter going deep in games, both consistently serve up home runs. Gilbert has allowed at least one in four straight starts while Odorizzi has allowed at least one in three straight and five of six. Expect another high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Toronto UNDER the total. Ryu has been hot or cold lately. Last time out, he got roughed up by the White Sox. However, in his previous start, he tossed seven shutout innings against the Tigers. The Orioles score even less than the Tigers and I expect them to bring out the best in Ryu. He's already limited the O's to just one run on two separate occasions this season. Akin doesn't have good overall numbers and he didn't fare well in a h2h matchup against Ryu back in June. He's pitching a lot better now though and I expect him to bring considerably more confidence into this evening's start. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. Last time out, he gave up just one run through seven complete innings. That type of effort, which led to a win against the Angels, was much needed and provides momentum. While yesterday's game snuck over the total, the under has long been profitable when Baltimore visited Toronto. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While the Giants have the best record in baseball, the Brewers are favored for good reason in this one. While Cueto has been solid, Burnes is simply better in all areas. He averages more innings per start. He allows less runs and fewer baserunners. On the road, he's 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.862 WHIP, averaging 6.3 innings. Cueoto, on the other hand, has a 3.09 ERA at home, averaging 5.8 innings. In addition to having the superior starter, the Brewers have the best road record in baseball. They're a perfect 7-0 in Burnes' last seven starts. The Giants will be playing their first game back home, since 8/18. That's noteworthy as they're a dismal 17-36 the past 53 times that they played a home game, following a road trip of seven or more games. The last time they came back home off a trip, they lost to the Pirates. Brewers roll. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Every game is important these days and this is another big one. The Giants are a lock to make the playoffs but are in a dogfight with the Dodgers for the important top spot in the division. Atlanta, meanwhile, needs to win the East, as the Wild Card is not an option. Yesterday was a good day for the Braves. They got to take a much needed day off and both the Phillies and the Mets, the two teams chasing them, lost. While they can thank the Giants for beating the Mets, the Braves aren't about to go easy on them. When he's on his game and healthy, Fried is one of the top starters in the game. He's currently in outstanding form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 0.86 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. In fact, he's 4-0 with a 0.67 WHIP in four August starts. Last time out, he went the distance, a complete game 4-hit shutout. While Guasman has been great this season, he's also got a 1.695 WHIP his past three starts. That's twice as many baserunners per inning, as Fried has allowed over his past three. Also, while Fried is averaging seven complete innings over those three starts, Gausman is averaging only 4.7 innings his past three. Look for Fried to outlast Gausman, the refreshed Braves bouncing back and moving to 17-5 in the month of August. 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) Off 11 straight wins, the Yankees are obviously red hot right now. However, I expect a desperate Oakland team to give them all they can handle. Both teams had yesterday off. That day off figures to have benefitted the A's a lot more than it did the Yankees. Off four straight losses, the A's needed a day to regroup. On the other hand, off so many consecutive wins, the Yanks probably would have preferred to just keep playing. The Yanks have long had problems here and they're just 1-9 their last 10 visits. Not only do the A's have the venue in their favor but they should have an advantage on the mound. Averaging less than five innings, Taillon is only 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 road starts. On the other hand, averaging better than six innings, Kaprielian is 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in seven home starts. Some will recall that we successfully backed the A's in his last start, a 4-1 win over the Giants. Also, as I pointed out prior to that game, both Kaprielian's home losses were by a single run - both were still quality starts. In other words, including the win over SF, one would be a perfect 7-0 in his starts here, if getting an extra +1.5 runs each time. In what could be another close one, expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover" from the A's. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Yesterday's loss hurt. However, the Phillies didn't lose any ground against the Braves in the division. Nor did they lose ground against the Reds or the Padres in the Wild Card race. All three of those teams lost. The Cardinals and Mets did too, for that matter. Still, the Phillies squandered an opportunity to gain valuable ground against all those teams. They can't afford to let it happen again. I expect their best effort. Wheeler averages nearly seven innings per start. In 15 home starts, he's got an outstanding 2.25 ERA and 0.827 WHIP. On the othe hand, Yarbrough has a 4.91 ERA on the season and an ugly 5.82 ERA his past three. The Phillies are 47-26 the past few seasons as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to bounce back and pick up the much-needed win. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Off a tough loss last night, I expect the A's to bounce back this afternoon. Irvin and Flexen have similar overall numbers. Flexen has a 3.64 ERA and 1.245 WHIP, averaging 5.8 innings per start. Irvin is only slightly better. He's got a 3.57 ERA, a 1.210 WHIP while averaging 5.9 innings. However, a closer look shows that Irvin's advantage is bigger here at home. Here, Irvin's WHIP dips to 1.183 and he averages 6.1 innings. On the other hand, Flexen has had trouble on the road. He's got a 4.92 ERA and 1.482 WHIP, while averaging 5.7 innings. (At home, he's got a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.) While Flexen has benefitted from strong run support all season, I don't see it happening this afternoon. The last 10 days have really hurt the A's but they're not completely out of the race yet. They need to start winning immediately; I say they get it done this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Oakland UNDER the total. The A's are off a costly 2-1 loss yesterday afternoon. Runs figure to be hard to come by again this evening. Gonzales goes for the visitors and he's in excellent current form. In fact, he's got a microscopic 0.43 ERA his past three starts. That's one earned run allowed in 21 innings. He's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight starts, two or less in six straight and one or less in each of his last four. Blackburn now has a start under his belt this season. He was on the wrong side of a low-scoring (3-2) loss against Lance Lynn and the White Sox in his first start. The last time he made a "home start" was back on June 29, 2018. He was great that day, as he limited the Indians to just three hits through 6 1/3 shutout innings. Facing Bauer, who was still with Cleveland at the time, Blackburn and the A's won 3-1. Expect another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Colorado OVER the total. Yesterday's game was relatively low-scoring but I look for the bats to come alive, on a warm Sunday afternoon at Coors. Widener gives up a lot of fly balls. A lot of long ones, too. Despite never going more than five innings in any of his last six starts, he's allowed at least one HR in every one of them. Over that 27-inning span, he's served up eight long balls. The OVER is 3-1-1 his past five starts. Gray is 0-3 with a poor 6.14 ERA and 1.705 WHIP his past three starts. He's given up 21 hits, while also walking four, in just 14 2/3 innings. Neither bullpen is good. Arizona relievers have a 5.57 ERA on the road. Colorado releivers have a combined 5.40 mark at home. Expect a "slug-fest." 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) After dropping four straight, the A's got a much-needed victory yesterday. Note that each of their past two games has been decided by a single run. While both teams badly need wins, the A's arguably need them more. I expect them to carry the positive momentum from yesterday's win into this evening's game. Kaprielian has been outstanding at home. In six starts here, averaging more than six innings per outing, he's 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. On the other hand, Wood had a 4.36 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in eight road starts. Note that two of Wood's last three starts were 1-run SF wins. Also, note that both Kaprielian's home losses were by a single run - both were still quality starts. In other words, one would be a perfect 6-0 in his starts here, if getting an extra +1.5 runs each time. In what could be another close one, expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover" from the A's. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays got pounded yesterday. They can't afford to let it happen again. Berrios struggled against the Angels last time out. However, the Jays paid dearly for him for games just like this one. Prior to the tough start against LA, he'd allowed 0, 0 and 1 earned run in his previous three starts. One earned run in 20 innings. The Nats may have temporarily stopped the bleeding yesterday but they're not playing winning baseball. Prior to yesterday, they'd dropped seven straight. Gray has been respectable (4.13 ERA) but still only has 24 big league innings to his credit. He's not likely to get much run support and he's going to be facing a potent Toronto lineup, desperate to return to the win column. Note that Gray has a 1.75 WHIP in his limited daytime innnings, compared to a 1.10 mark at night. I say Berrios brings his A Game, both he and the Jays bouncing back big. 

I'm playing on Colorado/SD OVER the total. On a hot day, great for hitting, I'm expecting plenty of offense in this one. Marquez got lit up for seven runs in just four innings in his last start. So, we''ll likely see plenty of a Colorado bullpen which has a 5.66 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home.The Padres just had a look at Marquez, less than three weeks ago, too. In fact, they saw him twice in July, which should help them here. Meanwhile, Strahm hasn't started since 2019. Expect fireworks. 

I'm playing on Toronto/Seattle UNDER the total. Last night's game was high-scoring but we should see some better pitching this afternoon. Matz will be In 13 starts under the lights, Matz has a 5.20 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .307 against him in those games. However, in seven daytime starts, he's 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting just .212 in those games. Matz has surrendered 11 HR's at night but only two during the day. Like Matz, Gilbert has been much better during the day. He's got an ugly 5.94 ERA in eight starts under the lights but an excellent 2.19 ERA (0.89 WHIP) in seven daytime starts. He's given up just one HR in the day, compared to seven at night. Opposing batters hit .270 against him at night but .167 in the day. Matz has allowed only two earned runs combined over his past two starts and he's now allowed four or fewer earned runs in 11 straight. Gilbert, meanwhile, has allowed four or fewer earned runs in every start this season. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Needless to say, the Cubs have seen better days. That said, this is a highly favorable matchup. Though I expect Chicago to win outright, in this case, I'm happy to pay for the extra +1.5 runs. Miami is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. Alzolay allowed just two runs through 6 2/3 innings in his last start. He's allowed four or fewer earned runs in every single one of his 20 starts. Note that six of those saw Chicago losing by a single run. The Marlins haven't seen him, which should favor Alzolay. Lack of run support has been an issue for Alzolay, as evidenced by the six 1-run losses in games that he starts. In his last start, the Cubs didn't score a single run. They should provide Alzolay with much better support this evening though. Luzardo has an ugly 6.69 ERA through eight starts. Over his past three starts, he's got a horrible 9.23 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. The Marlins have somehow won four of his eight starts. However, two of those came by a single run. Last time out, he gave up seven runs in less than five innings. Cubs bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Lynn was supposed to go yesterday but got pushed back, due to the Rodon injury. Instead he will go for the "Field Of Dreams" game. In case you didn't hear, this game will be played at the Field Of Dreams movie site, in Iowa. Lynn has been outstanding all season long and is showing no signs of slowing down. He's 10-3 with a 2.04 ERA on the season. Lynn has now allowed one earned run or less in six of his past seven starts. While the bats were silent yesterfday, Lynn should get some solid run support. Heaney has served up six home runs in his last three starts alone. He's got a 6.19 ERA over that span. The White Sox pounded Heaney when they saw him in the spring. He'd last only three innings, while giving up seven earned runs. The Sox won 12-8. I say they finish on top again here. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Off another loss last night, the Red Sox badly need to stop the bleeding. Eovaldi on the mound, I expect them to do exactly that. Through 13 home starts, Eovaldi is 5-3 with a very solid 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Note that he's only given up two HR's here all season. Both were back in June, one vs. Houston and one vs. the Yankees. On the other hand, Fleming is 1-2 with an ugly 6.67 ERA through five road starts. While Eovaldi has allowed just two HRs in 13 home starts, Fleming has served up eight HR's in just seven road appearances, five starts. Opposing batters hit .305 against him on the road overall. Even off last night's setback, the Sox are still 46-28 under the lights. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing Minnesota on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) After the Sox pounded them last night, I'm expecting a much better effort from the Twins this evening. Jax has gotten stronger with each start. Last time out, he limited the Astros to one run, through 5 1/3 innings. The Twins won 5-3. That gives him an outstanding 1.88 ERA his last three starts to go along with an absolutely dominant 0.698 WHIP. The first of those three starts came against these same White Sox. Sure, Jax only went four innings. He also allowed only one hit though. He struck out six along the way and the Twins won 3-2. On the other hand, Keuchel's got a 5.71 ERA his past three starts, all Chicago losses. Despite having a starter in better current form and playing at home, the Twins are moneyline underdogs. That means we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with them on the run-line at a very fair price. Though we may not need them, with Keuchel off three straight 1-run games and Jax's lone start vs. Chicago also a 1-run game, it's a nice luxury to have. Expect the Twins to bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing LA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Dodgers won by two yesterday and this is an even bigger mismatch. Buehler is 11-2 with a 2.16 ERA on the season. He's got a dominant 0.89 ERA his last three starts. On the other hand, Detmers has made one start and he's got a 12.48 ERA and 1.848 WHIP to show for it. He gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings, serving up as many HRs (2) as he recorded strikeouts. The Dodgers are 61-25 in day games the past few seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Indians yesterday and I'm coming right back with them today. Morgan isn't over-powering. His overall numbers aren't very good either. I watched him closely in his last start though and he was masterful. He'd finish with nine K's agianst just one walk, allowing two runs through six innings. Having just dominated a hot Toronto lineup, he'll be full of confidence against the lowly Tigers. In fact, Morgan has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in four straight starts, four or less in seven straight. Morgan will be opposed by Alexander, who has a terrible 9.00 ERA when starting on the road. While Morgan has gone a minimum of five complete innings in six straight starts, Alexander has gone four or fewer innings in eight straigtht starts. That means we'll see plenty of a Tiger bullpen which has an ERA above six on the road. (Detroit relievers entered the series with a 6.31 ERA on the road. Clev. relievers had a 3.21 ERA at home.) I say Cleveland builds off yesterday's win, while Morgan builds off his last start, all adding up to another victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS (ACTION) While still mathematically alive, the Cardinals know they won't be going to the playoffs. That won't stop them from beating up on the Royals tonight though. Wainwright just keeps getting it done. The Cards are 3-0 his last three starts; he's 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in those games. On the season, he's got a stellar 2.79 ERA and 0.966 WHIP through 13 home starts. Minor, on the other hand, has a 5.25 ERA through 11 road starts. While Minor has had a couple of really bad games, Wainwright has allowed four or fewer earned runs in 13 straight starts, three or less in 11 of those. While the Cards are 30-24 at home, the Royals are an ugly 19-35 on the road. I see the Cards taking this one. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/Houston UNDER the total. While these teams were both involved in high-scoring games yesterday, I'm expecting to see some better pitching this evening. Valdez has been solid. He's 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA on the season. Over his past two starts, he's allowed just two runs (0 HRs) through 11 combined innings. In his last start here, he didn't allow a hit through six shutout innings. The final score was 4-1. When he faced the Twins earlier this season, he allowed just two runs through seven complete innings. Only one of those runs was earned, too. Jax only has a few starts under his belt. His debut didn't go well. So, that has made his overall numbers appear poor. However, in his last two starts, he's gotten progressively stronger. He went to Chicago and held the White Sox to one run through four innings. Then, last time out, he limited the Cards to one earned run, on only two hits, through five complete. All three of his starts finished with nine or fewer runs and those last two had scores of 3-2 and 5-1. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Cleveland/Toronto OVER the total. While games here at Toronto have been relatively low-scoring thus far, this is still a good place to hit. I expect the bats to come to life on Tuesday. Plesac has now allowed HR's in seven straight games, 10 of them in that 7-game span. That figures to spell trouble against this Blue Jay lineup. Overall, he's got a 4.59 ERA on the road. Ryu's last game against Cleveland saw 13 total runs scored. Ryu came over to the Jays last year but they didn't play here at Toronto. So, this is his first game here, as a Blue Jay. When he previously pitched here, several years ago now, the game saw 19 runs scored. Ryu gave up nine hits in 5 1/3 innings. I believe this number is generously low and I look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. (ACTION) I really like what I saw from the Phillies yesterday. In a game they needed to win, they got solid pitching and scored a ton. They'd finish with 20 hits and 15 runs. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Monday's series opener against the Nationals. The Phillies' starting rotation has changed, due to the recent acquisitions. Gibson delivered in his debut yesterday and now we'll see Ranger Suarez get his turn in the rotation. He'd previously been working out of the bullpen, where he's got outstanding (1.12 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in 27 appearances) numbers, but now becomes a starter, thanks to Kennedy moving into his spot in the bullpen. As Joe Girardi noted: "We've always envisioned Ranger as a starter ... Ranger's done a really good job in whatever role we've put him in. Of course, Suarez won't go too deep, with this being his first start of the season. That's why getting 6 2/3 innings out of Gibson was important yesterday. The bullpen wasn't too taxed. We saw what the Padres did in what was essentially a bullpen day yesterday. Knehr may have only gone three innings but he also only allowed two hits. Josiah Gray is expected to go for Washington and he's got an ugly 6.75 ERA in two appearances. In other words, Suarez should get some solid support. The Phillies are desperately trying to catch the Mets while the Nats are now essentially playing out the string. Philadelphia draws first blood. 

I'm playing on SD. At first glance, one might think the Rockies could have an advantage in this one. Gomber has admittedly been pretty good while it looks like more of a bullpen day for the Padres. However, upon closer review, the Padres bullpen is actually really good and they've already had three looks at Gomber in the past few months. Additionally, it should be mentioned that Gomber has made just two starts since returning from injury and that he's allowed four HR's in those two games. The Padres, 18-9 vs. southpaw starters, can't afford to get swept by a Rockies team which is normally terrible on the road. Sure, its been a tough few days with the Tatis injury and not getting a big name starter at the deadline. Still, this team remains loaded. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Nothing like a comeback win and some bad blood to get a team going. In the end, cooler heads prevailed; Chicago realized it was unintentional. Still, the benches cleared after Abreu got hit. The Sox would rally for the victory. Momentum in their corner and the division all but officially locked up, I expect the South Siders to keep rolling this evening. Keuchel is 4-1 with a respectable 3.83 ERA in nine home starts. The Sox are 8-1 in those games. McKenzie, on the other hand, is 1-3 with a poor 5.83 ERA in seven road starts. Cleveland was just 1-6 in those games. The Sox are a dominant 19-4 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to improve on those stats.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both these teams have arguably underachieved. The Twins have been out of the playoff race for some time. The Cardinals are still mathematically alive but reality is setting in. Barring a miracle, they won't be going to the playoffs either. That said, the Twins should have a significant edge on the mound for tonight's opener. Minnesota hasn't provided Berrios with much run support lately but he should get some this evening. Berrios has a dominant 0.75 WHIP his past three starts but an 0-2 record to show for it. LeBlanc, on the other hand, has a 1.917 WHIP his past three starts. That means that LeBlanc is allowing more than 2 1/2 times (2.556) as many baserunners as Berrios, over his past three outings. Needless to say, that's a big difference. Berrios is averaging 6 2/3 innings over those three starts, while LeBlanc is averaging four. It should also be noted that Berrios is 27 years old while LeBlanc is 36. These two opposed each other back in 2019 and it didn't go well for LeBlanc, who was pitching for Seattle at the time. In fact, LeBlanc gave up four HR's in 2 2/3 innings and the Twins won 18-4. In much better current form, expect Berrios to get the better of LeBlanc again tonight. 

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Brewers are on top of the division. The Pirates are in the basement. The Brewers are very likely going to make the playoffs. The Pirates are not. The Brewers have won each of the first two games convincincly. Another easy winner for them today? I'm not seeing it. With Milwaukee heavily favored on the moneyline, we're able to get great value with the Pirates on the run-line. Though we may not need the extra +1.5 runs, I'll happily take them. Kuhl has quietly been pitching very well recently. In fact, the Pirates are 5-1 in his last six starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in all six of those, one or less in four of them. While Peralta has also pitched well, the Brewers are 1-2 his last three starts. One of those losses came against Pittsburgh. So, the Pirates have already seen him this month. Not the case for the Brewers with Kuhl. After this game, the Brewers head to Atlanta. They've been fine without Yelich and Peterson (Quarantine) but missing those guys figures to catch up with them here. Kuhl and Peralta opposed each other back in the spring and Pittsburgh won a 1-run game. I say the Pirates bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on LA. The Dodgers lost a heartbreaker when these same two starters opposed each other less than a week ago. That wasn't Buehler's fault though. He outpitched DeSclafani that day and I expect him to do so again this evening. It should be noted that DeSclafani has only had one bad start in recent months. That was a game here against these same Dodgers. He allowed 10 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings on 5/23, the Dodgers winning 11-5. Buehler hasn't had any of those kind of games. He consistently gets it done. Not only is he 10-1 with a 2.31 ERA on the season but he's got a 1.31 ERA his past three starts. The Dodgers are a perfect 5-0 when Buehler pitches at SF. They won those games by scores of 6-3, 9-2, 1-0, 10-3 and 15-6. That's a combined score of 41-14. Dominant. Off last night's loss, look for the champs to respond. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. This is the game that the Rangers had been waiting for. The chance to finally stop the bleeding and break through with a much-needed victory. I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Recent games have come on the road. Now, the Rangers return home and step down in class from taking on the Astros to facing the Diamondbacks. While the Rangers may be only 22-25 at home, the Dbax are a dismal 12-40 on the road. The Rangers can relate, they're only 13-40 away from Texas. The two teams are tied for the most road losses in the big leagues. In addition to haveing the venue in their favor, the Rangers should enjoy an advantage on the mound. Dunning has quietly been very good at home all season. In nine home starts, he's got a 2.54 ERA and 1.156 WHIP. He's also got a 2.63 ERA and a stingy 0.878 WHIP his past three starts. On the other hand, Widener has a 5.06 ERA and 1.593 WHIP his past three. With neither starter going the distance, note that Arizona relievers have a combined 5.73 ERA on the road (30.8% save percentage) while Texas relievers have a combined 3.59 ERA at home. Rangers roll. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Both these teams are chasing the Brewers. It doesn't look good for either team at the moment but things are even more desperate for the Cubs. They're the team which comes in with some positive momentum though. They beat up on the Dbax Sunday afternoon while the Reds are off a deflating loss to the Cards, the other team trying to catch Milwaukee. These same two starters opposed each other on July 4th, at Cincinnati. The Reds won 3-2. Not surprising, given that the Cubs are a terrible 19-33 on the road. They're far better (30-18) here at Wrigley though and I like them to carry the positive momentum in from yesterday's win. Hendricks has gone six or more innings in 13 straight starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 of those 13 starts and four in the other. Over his last four starts, Hendricks has allowed 1, 2, 1 and 2 earned runs. Admittedly, Miley is also in excellent form. That said, while Hendricks hasn't given up a HR in four July starts, Miley gave up one last time out. It should also be mentioned that Cincy relievers have a combined ERA which is roughly two runs higher than the Chicago relievers. Cubs win. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. After the A's won Thursday's opener, the M's have taken the past two. This afternoon, I expect the A's to bounce back and salvage the series split. This is the first "all-southpaw" affair of the four games and the matchup strongly favors the visitors. Irvin was excellent last time out. He tossed seven shutout innings. Oakland won 4-1. The A's are 7-1 his past eight starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of those eight starts and four in the other. He's got a stellar 2.37 ERA On the season, he's got a stellar 2.85 ERA (1.12 WHIP) in eight road starts. On the other hand, Gonzales is 2-5 with a 5.55 ERA through 12 starts. Over his past three starts, he's got a horrible 7.07 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. In his last two starts here, he's served up five HRs in nine combined innings. He's got a 1.93 WHIP in July, opposing hitters batting .356 against him. Look for the A's to improve to 71-31 the past few seasons against left-handed starters. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. On Thursday, the Phillies found themselves trailing before they even came to the plate. They quickly found themselves in a hole which they could never recover from. They'll be in good shape to bounce back with Wheeler on the mound. In 11 home starts, Wheeler has a dominant 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. By comparison, Fried has an ugly 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in six road starts. When Fried faced the Phillies here back in the spring, he went only five innings. He allowed eight baserunners (6 hits, 2 walks) and two runs. Philadelphia won 3-2. When Wheeler last faced the Braves, he struck out 12 over eight shutout innings. He didn't walk a batter and only allowed four hits. Philadelphia won 4-3. While I certainly respect Fried, I see Wheeler and the Phillies getting the better of him today. Phillies improve to 44-22 their last 66 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

I'm playing on LA. The Giants won yesterday but I fully expect the Dodgers to bounce back tonight. Buehler (10-1, 2.37 ERA) is a beast. Last game, pitching at Coors, he allowed just two runs through seven complete. In his last home start, he tossed six shutout innings. LA won 22-1. His previous home start came against these same Giants. He allowed a single unearned run, on just three hits, through 6 2/3 innings. While Buehler hasn't allowed a HR in any of his last four starts, DeSclafani gave up two in his last start, alone. He faced the Dodgers a few weeks ago and he gave up three HR's in five innings. His teams are 1-7 his last eight starts vs the Dodgers. LA will be seeing DeSclafani for the fourth time in two months, too. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 7-1 against SF when Buehler pitches. I see this one also going in Buehler's favor. 

I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis UNDER the total. We should see some quality pitching in this one. Hendricks gets it done nearly every time out. He's got a 1.96 ERA his past three starts, all of them quality. In fact, 11 of his last 12 starts have been on the 'quality' variety. That's three earned runs or less and six complete innings or more. The only one of those 12 that wasn't a quality start still saw him go six complete. He allowed just four earned runs in that one. So, not terrible. Not that Hendricks hasn't allowed a HR in any of his past three starts and only one in his past six. Wainwright had a rare 'off' day last time out. However, just like with Hendricks, an off-day wasn't that bad. He still only allowed five hits and he still went six complete, striking out seven. He just happened to allow four earned runs. In fairness, he was facing the same opponent (SF) for the second straight time. Prior to that, Wainwright had allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven straight starts. Last time Wainwright saw Chicago, he allowed only one hit through eight complete (shutout) innings. The fnal score of that 5/23 game was 2-1. Look for another low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I like the Reds in Game 1 of this series. Gutierrez has quietly been very good this month. Each of his July starts have been quality. The Reds won both. In those two July starts, he's got a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Eickhoff has been back and forth from the minors. He's got a poor 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in three 2021 big league appearances. While the Reds may be only .500 on the road, the Mets are just 20-28 on the road. Note that Eickhoff made only one road start, an 8-4 loss, and that he gave up four HR's in that game. While both teams need to win, the Reds need this one arguably more than the Mets. Note that the line came down a litte from its opener, providing additional value. Look for the Reds to bounce back and start the series with a win, improving to 6-3 the past nine times that they were off a shutout loss. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. While the A's stumbled yesterday, I expect them to have the advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. Bassitt gets the call and the A's are 14-5 when he takes the mound. In eight home starts, he's 4-2 with a stellar 2.55 ERA and a 0.925 WHIP. Plesac, on the other hand, has a 4.94 ERA in five road starts, a 6.75 ERA his past three overall. Despite going just four innings, Plesac allowed two HRs last start. His previous start saw him go 3 2/3 innings and he still served up a HR. In fact, that's six HR's allowed in his past three starts. Bassitt, by comparison allowed just four hits (0 HRs) through seven innings last game. In his last home start, he allowed only three hits (0 HRs) in seven shutout innings. He's given up just four HRs here all season and opposing batters are hitting .197 against him here. Remember, he had a 0.72 ERA in six home starts last season, too. The previous year, he was 6-2 with a 3.01 ERA at home. Indeed, Bassitt likes his home cooking. Expect him to outpitch and outlast Plesac this afternoon, en route to a victory for the home team. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Giants won big last night but I expect a much better effort from the Cards this evening. Note that the Giants were already banged-up an that Brandon Crawford left last night's game with a hamstring issue. Its possible it was a cramp, as manager Kapler indicated, and that he'll be back today. However, its also entirely possible that he gets today off. He's been huge for the Giants, so that would be a blow. Admittedly, Desclafani has been great. That said, Kim has arguably even better, recently. He hasn't allowed a single run in his past two starts, a span of 13 innings. Over his past three starts, he's allowed one run, which translates to a 0.50 ERA. In fact, he's allowed one earned run or less in five of his past six starts. While Kim recently blanked the Giants through seven innings, Desclafani gave up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings the last time he faced the Cards. I like and expect the Cards to win "outright." However, in a game where runs may be at a premium (O/U line is just 7.5) I'm happy to have an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from Kim and the Cards. 

I'm playing on Seattle/LA UNDER the total. Flexen faced these same Angels last time out. He allowed just three hits through seven shutout innings. Seattle won 2-0. In his previous start, Flexen allowed one run through six complete innings, a 4-1 final. That makes it six straight starts that he's allowed three or fewer earned runs. Flexen is fortunate to avoid some of the Angels' biggest bats. Heaney's last four starts have come against the Red Sox, Yankees, Giants and A's. All four of those teams are above .500 and two are leading their division. He'll be happy to face a Seattle team which is 19-23 on the road, one which he dominated the last time that he faced them here. (Note that Seattle's 4.1 runs per game is tied for the lowest mark in the A.L.) In that 8/28/20 game, Heaney struck out 10 Seattle hitters, while allowing only four hits and one run, through 7 2/3 innings. The Angels won that one 3-2. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. After dropping a pair of close one to the rival Yankees and failing to score a run in the process, the Astros are going to be all business this afternoon. Speaking of the "afternoon," it should be mentioned that NY is an ugly 12-22 in day games this season. Taillon goes for the visitors. Though he's off a strong start at Seattle, he typically struggles on the road. In fact, he's 1-3 with an awful 8.25 ERA and 1.708 WHIP in six road starts this season. Opposing hitters are batting .330 against him in those games. Valdez wasn't at his best last time out, as he gave up five runs against Oakland. However, prior to that game, he'd allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 straight starts. On the season, he's 5-1 with a stingy 2.86 ERA. Even off yesterday's loss, the Astros are still 8-4 the last 12 times that they were blanked in their previous game. I say they bounce back and improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing LA on the run-line. (-1.5 runs) I'm expecting this one to result in a rout. Off a loss and having dropped four of five, the champs are going to be all business. Note that LA's last six wins have all come by two or more runs. Buehler wasn't his best at Miami last time out, but still only allowed three earned runs. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight starts. The Dodgers won seven of those, all seven wins coming by more than one run. On the season, Buehler is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home. Smith, on the other hand, is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA on the road. Arizona is 1-7 in his eight starts overall. Arizona is still 11-36 on the road while LA is 28-13 at home. Look for the Dodgers to bounce back and improve on those stats, picking up the "run-line cover" along the way. 

I'm playing on KC/Clev UNDER the total. At first glance, the numbers from today's starters don't look too good. I believe we'll see some decent pitching though. Keller is off a quality start. Last time out, he allowed just five hits and two runs, while striking out seven, through 6 1/3 innings. Keller has made six starts against Cleveland for his career. All six produced nine or fewer combined runs. The most recent three had scores of 5-2, 2-1 and 3-2. In three starts at Cleveland, he's allowed only four combined earned runs. Meanwhile, McKenzie saw KC back in May and the game ended in a 4-0 final. Back in the bigs after a short stint in the minors, he's got something to prove. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories including runs and HR's. The number is generous and I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both tonight's starters are considerably better when pitching in their own park. With this game being played at Minnesota, I expect Happ and the Twins to have the edge. Skubal has a solid 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at home. However, on the road, he's got an ugly 5.67 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. Likewise, Happ has a terrible 8.29 ERA and 1.783 WHIP on the road but a relatively respectable 4.32 ERA and 1.272 WHIP at home. In his last start here, Happ held Cleveland to two runs through six complete innings, striking out seven without walking a batter. Including a victory in that game, the Twins have quietly gone a perfect 4-0 in Happ's last four starts here. The Twins have taken seven of the past eight meetings against the Tigers here. Expect them to start the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on St. Louis/SF UNDER the total. Yesterday's game was a tough one for those who had the 'under.' The O/U line was 7.5 and the score was 0-0 entering the seventh inning. Gausman took a no-hitter into the 7th. Eight runs were scored in the final three innings though, a 5-3 Cards' win. Tonight, we're working with a higher O/U line. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Last night notwithstanding, the Giants' bullpen is generally pretty solid. SF relievers have a combined 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP here at home, converting 83.3% of save opportunities here. Cueto has a 2.81 ERA and 1.008 WHIP here at home. Six of his seven home starts have fallen below the total. Ageless Andy Wainwright has a 1.71 ERA his past three starts. He went eight complete innings last time and has gone six or more in six straight games. Four of those six stayed below the total. In fact, he's allowed two earned runs or less in five straight games

I'm playing on TEXAS. While I successfully played against Texas yesterday, I'm coming right back with the Rangers today. Yesterday, the Rangers were on the road; they're terrible away from Texas. Today, however, they're back home, where they've been respectable. Yesterday, they were up against a tough pitcher, in excellent form. They also had a struggling pitcher on the mound. Today, things shape up much differently. Allard hasn't been getting much run support but he's quietly been pitching very well. Last time out, he threw a quality start at Oakland. It marked the third straight start that he'd gone at least six complete innings. He allowed four earned runs in one start. But in his other five, he's allowed three or less, two or less in four of those. While Allard has been going six strong, Peralta has yet to go more than five innings in any of this three starts. Detroit relievers have a 5.85 ERA on the road. Texas relievers have a 3.56 ERA at home. Texas bounces back. 

I'm playing on Arizona/SF UNDER the total. Last night's game was relatively high-scoring but I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening. Both these starters have quietly been pitching very well. Desclafani ran into a little trouble last time out, as he allowed three runs in five innings. However, that was on the road against the world champs. Prior to that, he'd allowed just five runs in his previous five starts combined. On the season, he's got a stellar 2.15 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in 10 road starts. Not surprisingly, seven of those stayed below the total. Three of his past four starts have finished with five or fewer combined runs. Meanwhile, Smith has a superb 1.59 ERA his past three starts. All of those stayed below the total, too. Four of his past five starts have finished with five or fewer combined runs. More of the same Sunday night. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I won with the 'under' in yesterday's game. Boston won 3-2. Today, I expect the A's to bounce back with a victory. Irvin is in excellent form. Last time out, he tossed eight shutout innings against the Giants. He allowed just three hits. Over his past five starts, a span of 27 23/3 innings, he's allowed only nine combined runs. The A's were a perfect 5-0 in those games. On the other hand, Richards has allowed nine runs in his past two starts alone, a span of only 7 2/3 innings. Last time out, he gave up 11 hits, three of them leaving the yard. He's got a 10.32 ERA and a 2.293 WHIP over his past three. On the season, his ERA is 4.96 and his WHIP is 1.69. Not good. Look for the A's to move to 43-27 their last 70, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range.

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals finally snapped their losing streak yesterday. Monkey off their back, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's finale against the Pirates. Both teams have a young starter on the mound. While both are 23 years old, Oviedo has major league experience. Kranick does not. Not only is it his big league debut, but Kranick has a mediocre 4.37 ERA in double and triple A this season. True, Oveido has yet to record a victory. However, this is a great spot to get one. Not only is he up against the light-hitting Pirates but Oveido is pitching at home and during the day. In four road starts, he's got a 6.91 ERA and 2.30 WHIP. However, in five home games (4 starts) he's got a 3.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Also, in five starts under the lights, Oveido has a 6.63 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. Yet, in four day appearances, he's got a 2.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. In his last home start, Oveido tossed seven shutout innings. Though he didn't get the "W," the Cards won 1-0. Look for the Cards to build off yesterday's victory and don't be surprised when Oveido breaks through with his first big league win. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. While the Giants have been hot, I expect the A's to cool them off in tonight's series opener. Manaea didn't get any support last time out, a hard-luck loss at NY, but he was excellent, again. Through 5 2/3 innings, he struck out 11 Yankee hitters, while allowing two earned runs. In his previous five starts, he allowed one run three times and zero runs twice. That's five earned runs in his past six starts. Even off the 2-1 loss, the A's are 11-4 when he takes the mound. Cueto isn't in nearly as good form. While Manaea has allowed one home run in his past six starts combined, Cueto has served up six long balls in his past three starts alone, two in each. Look for the Giants to fall to 18-23 the past few seasons, when off three or more consec. wins. 10* BEST BET

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The trip to Detroit didn't go as planned. A return home to host the Pirates will be exactly what the doctor ordered. Martinez hasn't had a good year. However, he's showing signs of coming around. Two starts ago, he was very sharp. He'll be happy to see the Pirates; the Cards are 4-0 his last four starts against them. While the Cards may only be 19-15 at home, the Pirates are a terrible 10-25 on the road. Kuhl hasn't helped matters. He's 0-3 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in five starts away from Pittsburgh. Pirate relievers have a combined road ERA which is above five on the road. The Pirates also score the fewest number of runs (3.5 per game) of any team in baseball. Bad combination. In the competitive NL Central, these are games which the Cards, currently 5.5 back of division leader Milwaukee with the Cubs and Reds in between, must take advantage of. The Cards won 7-2 the last time they saw Kuhl. I say they bounce back and finish on top, once again.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. After getting absolutely pounded on Friday and Saturday, the Cubs bounced back with an important 2-0 victory Sunday. I won with them in that game and I expect the Cubs to carry the positive momentum into Monday's opener against Cleveland. Of course, it helps that Alzolay is back, after dealing with a blister. Prior to his June 7th start, the one where he had to deal with the blister, Alzolay had a stellar 2.95 ERA in his previous seven starts, recording 41 K's in 39 2/3 innings. While Civale has been mostly solid, he served up three HR's in his most recent road start and he's given up six home runs in his last four starts overall. He's benefitted by facing Baltimore (twice) Detroit and Seattle in four of his past five starts. With yesterday's win, the Cubs moved to 10-3 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. On the other hand, Cleveland is just 7-16 its last 23, as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. Cubs win. 

I'm playing on Tampa/Seattle OVER the total. Neither of tonight's starters was sharp last time out. Hill allowed four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In that short span, he walked three while serving up a home run. Dunn was worse. In three innings, he allowed 11 baserunners (nine hits, two walks) and five runs. Dunn was making his first start since coming back from the IL; it remains to be seen if he will return to form here. Hill claimed to have "run out of gas" in his last start. Note that the veteran Hill has been vocal about the spider tack issue. He was quoted as saying: "I feel like a rule change in the middle of the season is very difficult for everybody across the league .... My argument is that, when it's a hundred degrees out and humid, we get a rosin bag. When it's 30 degrees out and freezing cold we get a rosin bag. I think it’s also been pretty widely said throughout baseball, hitters and pitchers alike, combined, a feel that the rosin bag is not enough." Unable to use spider tack, it won't be a shock to see the 41-year old struggle again.  Tampa's last game saw 15 runs scored while Seattle's last two had scores of nine and 10. I expect another relatively high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After getting hammered 10-0 last night, I expect the Twins to bounce back tonight. Ober has made two starts in June. He allowed one runs in four innings, at KC, in the first of those, the Twins winning 2-1. Last time out, facing Houston, he allowed two runs in five innings. In those two games, he had 11 K's against just one walk. That's more enough to earn him another start tonight and it puts him in far better current form than Sheffield. In his two June starts, Sheffield has served up four home runs in 9 2/3 innings. Last time out, he allowed five runs (3 earned) in four innings, the Mariners losing 8-3 to the Tigers. Note that his velocity was down in that game and that the Tigers were hitting him hard. I say the Twins bounce back and improve to 16-9 their past 25, after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. 

I'm playing on Tampa/Chicago OVER the total. Yesterday's battle of elite right-handers produced seven runs. Today's all-southpaw affair figures to be higher-scoring. Not only have both teams had success against left-handers but neither starter is in the type of form that yesterday's starters were. McClanahan is off b2b poor starts. He went just 3 1/3 innings two starts ago and only three innings last time. In that 6 1/3 inning stretch, he's been taken deep three times. His last start saw 16 runs produced, a 9-7 Tampa loss. Keuchel did pitch well last time out. However, his 4.54 ERA through seven home starts is nothing special and he's 1-5 with a poor 4.78 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Rays. I say this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on the NY METS. The Mets have a very favorable matchup for Tuesday's game. Walker is 5-2 with a 2.07 ERA through 11 starts. The Mets are 9-2 in those games. Last time out, he allowed one run through seven complete innings, striking out nine. He's only allowed two HR's in his past 13 starts and he's got a 1.32 ERA his past six. A closer look reveals that Walker's home stats are dominant. He's 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in five starts here, the Mets winning all five. On the other hand, Mills has a 6.08 ERA. He's been primarily a reliever this season and has been on the IL with a back issue. Last year, he had a 4.48 ERA as a starter. Expect Walker to outpitch and outlast Mills, en route to a NY victory. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins have just had to deal with the Astros and Yankees. The Mariners represent a slightly easier opponent, at least in my opinion, and I expect the Twins to take advantage of tonight's favorable matchup. Maeda is back and that's good news. While Maeda isn't about to go the distance, in his first start back, he should still provide some decent innings. Manager Rocco Badelli noted: "I think he can give us a good, full start. We'll let him pitch, and I think the way that the game goes will tell us a lot about what we need to know. How hard he's had to work to get through some of the innings will certainly factor in, and we'll make a call, probably more off of how he looks and how he's doing than on a pure pitch count ..." Importantly, note that Maeda's fastball velocity and offspeed movement were reportedly back, in his rehab start. Yes, the overall numbers are poor this season. Remember, however, he was the Twins' opening day starter and he allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts, before going on the DL. Maeda should look forward to some decent support. Gonzalez, who struggled last time out, is 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA on the season and the Twins pounded him when they saw him earlier. Gonzales lasted 4 2/3 innings, while giving up nine hits and seven earned runs. Minnesota won 10-2. Minnesota wins, again. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Cleveland UNDER the total. Yesterday's game snuck over the number but I'm expecting a very well pitched affair on Sunday afternoon. Bieber is in dominant form. He's 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA his past three starts, striking out 24 in 20 innings. Gilbert has also been pitching very well of late. Last time out, he struck out seven in five innings, giving up just two hits and one run. That's three straight starts with two or fewer earned runs. Bieber has made three starts against Seattle. All three finished below the total with scores of 4-2, 2-1 and 3-2. The lone game here at Cleveland was the 2-1 game. Bieber allowed a single run through 7 2/3 innings, striking out eight. In fact, the UNDER is 10-0 in Bieber's last 10 starts against teams from the AL West. More of the same Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Detroit OVER the total. These same two starters opposed each other Saturday, at Chicago. So the hitters have some recent familiarity. While that game was relatively low-scoring, it should be noted that the Tigers took Giolito deep three times. It should also be mentioned that Giolito has a poor 5.11 ERA on the road. While Skubal has admittedly been pitching well of late, he hasn't been going deep into games. That means plenty of a hittable Detroit bullpen which has a combined ERA above five (5.25) and a 1.51 WHIP. Also, Skubal's 4.47 ERA and 1.407 WHIP on the season is still nothing special. Again, he'll be facing these hitters for the second straight time, too. The Tiger bats got going the past couple of days and seven of Chicago's last 11 road games have finished with nine or more runs. Weather looks good; no expected issues. I see this one reaching double-digits. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While Happ has struggled lately, he's still got a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in five home starts. Needless to say, he'll be fired up to face a former team. Note that each of Happ's last two starts were decided by a single run. That's more than King can say. More suited for a role in relief, he's made two starts and the Yankees lost 5-2 and 6-2. In his lone road start, he gave up four runs (2 earned) in 2 1/3 innings. In fact, for his career, he's 0-4 with a 7.89 ERA as a starter. The Twins are 72-55 SU the past 100+ times they were off a loss. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover" in this one. 

I'm playing on Detroit/Seattle OVER the total. While there may be some pregame showers, conditions should be fine for hitting by first pitch. While last night's game snuck under the number, I look for the bats to come to life tonight. Flexen gave up five runs last time out. Over his last three games, he's given up 20 hits, while adding in a few walks. That's translated into a 1.568 WHIP. That's actually an improvement on his 1.85 WHIP (8.10 ERA) on the road this season. Note that all four of his road starts have finished above the total. His last road start resulted in a 16-1 loss. Admittedly, Mize has pitched pretty well of late. I'm also aware that Mize's games have been falling below the number this season. However, that's no thanks to his mediocre 4.58 ERA in four home starts. He's only averaged five innings in those four starts, which means we'll see some of the Tiger bullpen; Detroit relievers have a combined 5.20 ERA. Also, it should be noted that Mize served up three home runs last game. I say this one hits double-digits. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies lost a tough one yesterday but I expect them to have the edge this evening. Eflin has a stellar 2.25 ERA in five home starts, averaging nearly 6 1/2 innings per outing. I won with the Braves' in Davidson's last start. So, I'm well aware that Atlanta won that game and that Davidson allowed just one hit through 5 2/3 innings. That was also a home game against Washington and he was opposed by a struggling starter. Importantly, he walked five batters. Now, he makes his first road start. Similar control problems will spell trouble. The Phillies are a healthy 18-11 off a loss. They're also 40-21 the past couple of seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. I say they bounce back and even the series. 

I'm playing on NY on Sunday night. I love the Sunday night matchup for the Yankees. German has quietly been pitching much better than his overall numbers indicate. While he's got a solid 3.27 ERA overall, German has an oustanding 2.40 ERA his last five. He's got a 0.792 WHIP his last three. Richards has a respectable 3.44 ERA his last three. However, a closer look reveals that he's also got a 1.581 WHIP in those games. In other words, he's allowing roughly twice as many baserunners as German, over their past three starts. German should be happy to face Boston. The Yankees are 4-1 in his five starts against them, 2-0 here at NY. They won those two starts here by scores of 9-2 and 5-3, German getting the best of Sale and Porcello in those games. On the other hand, Richards can't be too excited about pitching at Yankee Stadium. He's 0-4 with an ugly 7.43 ERA in five career starts here. His teams were 0-5 in those games, losing by a combined score of 25-8. Yanks roll. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/St. Louis UNDER the total. Castillo has certainly disappointed. He was hoping/expecting a big season but instead its been a disaster. He didn't just forget how to pitch though. He had a 3.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2020 after going 15-8 with a 1.14 WHIP the previous season. There were quietly some really encouraging signs in Castillo's last game. He was tough through the first five innings, before running into a bit of trouble in the sixth. He's desperate to put it all together and I expect him to build some positive momentum from that effort. Kim has a solid 3.65 ERA on the season and he dominated the Reds, when he faced them in April. In fact, in three career starts against Cincinnati, he's allowed only a single earned run. A closer look shows that Kim has a 1.84 ERA in three home starts. I say this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Texas/Colorado OVER the total. While there's rain in some parts of the country, Denver is expecting a warm and dry afternoon. I'm expecting that to help lead to a relatively high-scoring affair at Coors. Foltynewicz's last start against the Rockies (April 2019) finished with 14 runs, a 9-5 final. Foltynewicz's last start here (Aug 2017) at Colorado finished with a whopping 19 runs, a 17-2 final. Foltynewicz would give up eight earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Admittedly, Gomber has been pitching pretty well. However, he hasn't been pitching here for a few weeks as his recent starts have been on the road. As I said, the weather has warmed a lot since then. Of course, when speaking of these teams, one needs to mention the bullpens. Neither are good. Entering Wednesday's action, Texas relievers had a 5.23 ERA on the road while Colorado relievers had a 5.92 ERA at home, blowing more saves here than they've converted. Look for the bats to come alive.