I'm playing Washington and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total.   After snapping an eight-game losing streak with a win Friday, the Braves fell 4-1 in 11 innings on Saturday.  They now trail the Nationals by 4.5 games in the NL East.  Both games in this series have featured long rain delays, which seems to have "washed away" the Atlanta offense.  After jumping out to an early 7-0 lead on Stephen Strasburg in the first game, they have scored all of two runs in the past 18 innings.  Like yesterday, I look for a low-scoring game here.

The Braves did not score more than four runs in any of their eight losses on the West Coast.  This is not a strong offensive club to begin with as they rank 28th in runs scored. So what we've been seeing lately is really nothing new.

Remember that Washington had only scored one run themselves entering the 11th inning last night as well.

Even though this is the Sunday night game, don't be surprised if last night's very late start has an effect on the hitters tonight.  Saturday was the latest start time for any game (10:51 local time) this season in Major League Baseball. It didn't end until 2:30 in the morning.  That can disrupt a player's normal routine.

However, I do expect the starting pitching to remain strong in this game.  Washington's Gio Gonzalez certainly hasn't pitched well in the past vs. the Braves, but the Under is 4-0 his last 4 road starts. Atlanta's Travis Wood has a solid ERA (2.96), but hasn't gotten much help from his offense lately. Three of the runs he allowed Tuesday vs. Seattle were unearned.   Look for the two starters to rule this one. 10* main event. 

I'm playing on DETROIT.  After rallying to take Friday's opener, the Tigers fell in 10 innings Saturday to Toronto.  That was a tough one for me as I had Detroit and this time it was they who blew the lead in the ninth inning.  But with David Price set to pitch for the second time as a Tiger, I still like the road team in this one.

Price looked as good as you'd expect in his Detroit debut. He came one out shy of a complete game and gave up just three runs.  It was the 14th consecutive start for Price going at least 7 innings.  It was also the second one in the last three where he went at least eight, struck out 10 and walked zero batters.  He continues to lead all of baseball with 199 K's.

Price's first opponent for the Tigers was the Yankees.  Toronto is another familiar one for him and he has certainly had their number through the years.  Including a 2-0 record in 2014, Price's career mark is 15-2 vs. the Blue Jays and he has an ERA of 2.31. 

Being on the road should not be intimidating for the Tigers as they are 33-24 there for the season and Price has won his last seven starts in Toronto.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they have a left-hander that has not looked nearly as good lately. Mark Buehrle was the star of the rotation early on this season, but has since gone 1-7 his last 11 starts (4.73 ERA).  Things have gotten especially bad in the last four where opponents have hit .379 against him.  Unlike Price, Buehrle does not have overpowering stuff. The proof is in the pudding as he hasn't had more than 5 K's in any of his last 10 starts.  He has only one win since June 1st.   10* personal favorite.

I'm playing the Giants and Royals to finish UNDER the total.  These unfamiliar opponents finished Under the total yesterday.  With a strong starting pitching matchup scheduled for Saturday, I see this game going the same way.  

Starting for Kansas City will be James Shields, their best pitcher.  He has a 1.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his previous three starts.  All three games finished Under the total.  He went eight innings in his last one, a 4-2 win at Oakland, and allowed just four hits.  August has usually been a good time of year for Shields as he is 26-12 with a 3.15 ERA.  

Starting for San Francisco will be Tim Hudson.   He's slowed down some after a pretty remarkable start to the year, but is still giving the team solid numbers.  The Under is 2-0-1 in Hudson's last three starts and it's important to point out that the one that pushed was with a total of seven, a half-run lower than the number we're getting here.  On the road, he has a 2.20 ERA and his numbers have stayed consistent all year.

Aside from a two-run homer he gave up early in his last start, Monday vs. the Mets, all Hudson allowed was one unearned run.

The Under is 5-0 for the Royals when they are going up against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15.  Hudson's WHIP this year is 1.12.   10* blue chip. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA.  The Braves have to be thrilled to be back home. An eight-game West Coast trip turned into a complete disaster for them as they lost every game in the three cities they visited (San Diego, LA, Seattle).  With a day off to get over the poor trip and an opponent they traditionally dominate (Washington) coming to town this weekend, I'm betting on the Braves to turn it around Friday night.

The last time these two NL East rivals met, they ended up splitting four games in DC.   But Atlanta still holds a 7-3 edge in the season series and they swept the lone series that took place at Turner Field.  We saw how badly the Braves struggled out on the West Coast, but this is a team that typically plays much better at home.  Their record here is 31-24.

Perhaps having Ervin Santana on the mound will help turn the Braves fortunes around.  He was the pitcher of record when they last won a game (July 28th) and pitched well in his last start even though the team ended up losing a 12-inning affair.  Over his last three starts, Santana has 1.23 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He's allowed just three runs in 22 innings and has 27 strikeouts.  The only real complaint is that he's walked seven batters.

Stephen Strasburg has pitched very well against two other division rivals in his last two starts, but against Atlanta he's struggled in 2014.  He's allowed 10 runs in 10 innings and the Nationals have lost both games.   Surprisingly, Strasburg is just 8-9 overall in 24 starts this year (12-12 TSR) and the primary reason for that is a 1-7 record on the road where his ERA is 4.68 and WHIP 1.41.  So, homefield could be a very big factor tonight.

A key trend is that the Braves are 4-1 after having the previous day off.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI.  This is the final game of a four-game series that saw each team play host for two.  The two games in Cleveland saw strong pitching performances - Corey Kluber for the Indians and Johnny Cueto for the Reds - with the teams splitting.  Then last night, Cincinnati broke through with an 8-3 victory. I'll look for them to make it two straight at Great American Ballpark, and three in a row overall tonight.

Cleveland didn't even score last night until the 8th inning when they were already down 8-0.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati's offense seems to have come alive in the last two games.  They have 25 hits in their two wins in this series, many of them coming from unlikely contributors i.e. the bottom of the order.

Overall, the Reds have won six of nine.  Homefield has been vital to them through the years in this in-state rivalry as they've beaten Cleveland seven times in a row at GAB.   The Indians are not a strong road team to begin with. After last night's loss their record in road games is 23-35.

Pitching for Cleveland tonight will be Trevor House, who is just 1-2 in 10 starts thanks to some pretty poor overall numbers (4.33, 1.56 WHIP).  Like the rest of the team, he tends to struggle the most when he's away from home.  He's still winless on the road and his ERA is 5.06 while his WHIP is 1.62 in those contests. Making matters worse for him is that Cincinnati is on a 7-1 run vs. left-handed starters.

Then you have Homer Bailey, who has recently picked things up for the Reds.  He has a 2.14 ERA and 0.86 WHIP his last three starts overall.  His last start saw hime allow only one run on three hits.  Somehow, the team has still managed to lose five straight times with him on the mound, but that's due to change given the way he's been pitching.  Cincinnati has gone 8-1 their last 9 interleague games as a favorite.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on TORONTO.  The Blue Jays certainly did not come into this all-important series with much momentum.  They dropped three in a row to the Houston Astros this past weekend and then didn't fare much better in the series opener with the Orioles last night, losing 9-3.  They now sit five games back of Baltimore in the A.L. East.  Really needing a win here, I think Toronto will get the job done.

Home runs were key for the Orioles in last night's win as they had three of them - all solo shots.  Fortunately for tonight, if you're a Toronto fan, is that starter Drew Hutchinson has allowed only four HR's in his last nine starts.  He's allowed one in each of his last three, but the Jays have still managed to win the last two.

Toronto missed out on plenty of opportunities to do more damage against Baltimore pitching, leaving 10 men on base Monday.  They left 18 runners on base in the Houston series and I say its only a matter of time before this offense gets going again.  They are just 4 for their last 26 with runners in scoring position.

The Baltimore offense seems to be real boom or bust.  While they lead MLB in home runs, they are also last in the American League since the All Star Break in both batting average (.223) and slugging (.272).   I don't think winning is sustainable with numbers like those.

Even with the win yesterday, the Orioles are still only 16-41 the last 57 meetings in Toronto.  They are also 0-4 in starter Bruce Chen's last four starts on astroturf.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE.  Big edge for the Brewers here as they had Monday off while San Francisco had to wrap up its series with the Mets.  As you may know by now, I played against the Giants yesterday afternoon, on the run line.  It worked out.  Here I plan on cashing again, but this time San Francisco will come out on the losing end.

While the Giants took three of four from the Mets over the weekend, Milwaukee lost 2 of 3 in St. Louis.  But now they're back at home.  In their only visit to Miller Park last season, San Francisco was swept.  These two playoff hopefuls have yet to meet this season.

After a strong start to July, Tim Lincecum had a rough finish.  The Giants starter has given up a total of 11 runs his last two starts, which lasted just 7 2/3 innings.   He went only 4 1/3 vs. the Dodgers and gave up six runs, then was knocked out after just 3 1/3 innings vs. the Pirates, who scored five runs off him.  What's key is that the team is now just 1-8 in Lincecum starts if he lasted four or less innings his last trip to the mound.

Prior to arriving in New York, the Giants had really been struggling.  They'd in fact lost six straight games.  The Mets have a losing record, so that series can't change the fact that San Francisco has now lost 17 of its last 21 games against teams at .500 or better.  

Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has made just four starts this season.  Three of them went well, one did not.  He will be plenty rested after having his last scheduled start was pushed back because of a blister on his finger.  At home, Nelson and the Brewers should handle the Giants. 10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on Detroit and the Yankees to finish UNDER the total.  This is the much ballyhooed debut of David Price for the Tigers.  However, after losing 2-1 to the Yankees last night, pitching probably isn't the issue for the road team in this one.   So therefore I'll be playing the Under instead on Tuesday.

Price obviously knows the Yankees well having pitched for the Rays all those years.  The last time he faced them, all he gave up was an unearned run and four hits over seven innings.  Tampa Bay won that game and they won Price's previous start before that against the Yankees as well.  That was back in May where he allowed just two runs in seven innings.  

This is a brutal series for the home team as they will be facing the last three Cy Young winners in the American League.  They managed to get by Max Scherzer Monday, but Detroit's ability to now throw out Price the following day is a huge advantage.  Eventually, the Yankees hitters will wear down and this is a lineup that scored only two runs yesterday.

The Yankees will have a pretty decent starter on the mound here as well.  Hiroki Kuroda has allowed more than four earned runs in only one start all year and that was back in April.  The Under is 22-4-1 Kuroda's previous 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record, which is pretty incredible.

Not only is the Under 9-3-2 the Yankees last 14 home games but its 8-3 in the Tigers last 11 road games.  Detroit is also 9-0-1 Under its last 10 games vs. the AL East.  10* blue chip. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO.  The Padres have been pretty kind to me of late as I'm 2 for 2 when playing them this week.  The last time was the opener of this series when they beat down the Braves 10-1 Friday.  They quickly followed that up by winning a much tighter game last night, 3-2 in 12 innings.   I feel they will finish the Braves off with a convincing victory on Sunday.

It's been no vacation for Atlanta out on the West Coast this week.  They've dropped all five games so far as they were swept by the Dodgers and now are in danger of the same thing happening to them here in San Diego.  The club has yet to win a single series out on the West Coast all season and has now fallen below .500 on the road overall.

The two starting pitchers in Sunday's matchup have experienced much different results over their last three starts.  While San Diego's Tyson Ross has a 3-0 team start record, Atlanta's Aaron Harang has an 0-3 TSR.  The two may have similar records, but Ross' numbers are better across the board.  He has a 0.95 ERA and 1.158 WHIP those last three starts.  Petco Park is certainly known for being friendly for pitchers and for Ross that's definitely been the case. He has a 1.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 12 home starts this season.

July was a very good month for Ross as he had more strikeouts than any other pitcher in baseball (48) and opponents batted just .194 against him in six starts.  He allowed just 28 hits in 41 innings.  

Overall, the Braves have lost their last six games in San Diego.

The Padres aren't favored too often, but have now won four in a row in that role.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing the Angels and Rays to finish UNDER the total.   I'm doing so even though the first two games of this series have both gone Over.  Last night saw Tampa Bay bust loose for 10 runs, six of them coming in the first two innings.   I don't see that happening again.

Just for the sake of comparison, the Rays had scored 10 runs combined their four games previous to Saturday.  The last time they scored that many runs in one game was July 12th against Toronto. They immediately followed that up by scoring only three runs the next game. (Even better news is that they also shut out the opponent).  Before yesterday, the offense had scored just 50 runs in 12 games.

Saturday saw Tampa Bay be able to take advantage of a starting pitcher (CJ Wilson) that was making his 1st start since spending time on the disabled list.  That will not be the case here as they go against Jered Weaver.  He may not have pitched very well in his last start, but had looked very good in his four previous starts.  So I can certainly see him turning in a quality start today.  The Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.

Pitching for the Rays will be Jake Odorizzi and he's had no issues of late. In fact, he's made nine straight starts while giving up three runs or less.  In all but one of those, he's allowed two or less.  His last start saw him allow only one run in seven innings.  The Rays won 2-1, the game obviously staying Under the total.  

The trends also indicate that the Under is a strong play in this one.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 Under off their previous four wins and 6-1 Under after the previous seven times where they scored five or more runs.  The Angels are 5-0 Under off their last five losses. 10* blue chip.

I'm playing on the METS.   New York dropped to 0-4 this season versus San Francisco by virtue of a 5-1 loss yesterday.  Having only two hits for the entire game basically ensured defeat. But with the surging Jacob de Grom on the mound Saturday, I look for them finally to pick up that elusive win at the Giants expense.

de Grom is in the midst of an incredible four-start stretch.  During this time, he has a 0.66 ERA and if that's not imposing enough he's struck out 30 batters against just five walks in 27.3 innings.  He hasn't given up a long ball in nine straight starts.  With the Giants coming into this series averaging just 1.9 runs/game and batting .196 their last seven games, you have to like de Grom's chances in this one.

The Giants made a move to bolster their rotation before the deadline by bringing in Jake Peavy from Boston.  Peavy lost his final nine starts with the Red Sox and in his first with his new team the result was no different.  He allowed four runs - three of them earned - and particularly concerning is his 5.87 ERA on the road this season.  

San Francisco has been struggling for some time now. They'd gone just 16-29 in 45 games before arriving at Citi Field yesterday.  

Making Friday's result even more surprising is that previously the Giants had lost four in a row as underdogs while the Mets were on a 5-0 run as home favorites.   10* personal favorite.  

I'm playing on KC and Oakland to finish UNDER the total.   Those concerned that the trade of Yoenis Cespedes might have a negative effect on the Athletics offense looked pretty smart after the team went down 1-0 at home to Kansas City Friday.  Obviously, you can't have a lower scoring result than that and while there may be a few more runs scored on Saturday afternoon, I still see runs being at a premium in this one.

The player Cespedes was dealt for, Jon Lester, will make his Oakland debut today.  Looking at Lester's resume, it's fairly easy to see why A's GM Billy Beane coveted him.  Not only does he bring playoff success (something Oakland has lacked for years), but 2014 has arguably been his best season ever.   The trade rumors did absolutely nothing to slow him down either.  Over his last three starts, Lester had posted an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.952.  

Of course, there is the issue of the Oakland offense.  They were held to one run in a loss to Houston Wednesday and then shutout last night.  That's not encouraging if you're an A's fan, but is if like me you're looking to play the Under.

Friday's game saw these teams combine for just nine hits and the lone run scored came via a solo home run.   There's not a ton of time in between games for the offenses to recover, so this one should definitely favor the starting pitchers.  Kansas City's Jason Vargas hasn't pitched in almost a month, but has a 1.68 ERA on the road.  

Not only is the Under now 6-0 the Royals last six road games, but they are 7-1 Under in their last eight visits to Oakland.   10* blue chip.

I’m playing on KC. The Twins took yesterday’s game. With a starting pitcher in much better current form, I like the Royals’ chances of bouncing back here.

Duffy is in outstanding current form. Despite an 0-2 record his last three starts, he had a superb 0.90 ERA and 0.915 WHIP. 

While run support has been an issue this season, I look for Duffy to get some here. 

That’s because Hughes has an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP his last three starts. Over just 15 innings, he’s given up 25 hits and 12 runs. 

Duffy has faced the Twins three times the past two seasons. The Royals won those three games by a combined score of 19-4, each win coming decisively. More of the same tonight. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on BOSTON. These teams faced each other at Toronto last week and these same two starting pitchers opposed each other on 7/23. Dickey got the better of Buchholz in that game. I expect the opposite result here.

The Jays are off a back-to-back wins at New York, taking two of three there. While they could potentially build some momentum from that winning that important series, I believe they could also be ripe for an emotional letdown. After all, wins there have been few and far between recently.

On the other hand, after finally snapping their skid yesterday, I believe the Sox should only have positive momentum.

The 7/23 game notwithstanding, Bucholz has arguably been better than Dickey recently. He’s got a 3.43 ERA and 1.095 WHIP his last three starts compared to a 5.21 ERA and 1.263 WHIP for Dickey during the same stretch.

While Dickey's knuckleball is indeed unpredictable, seeing it twice in less than a week figures to help. Note that the Boston bullpen has been much better at home than the Toronto bullpen has been on the road.

Keep in mind that the Jays are still playing without Encarnacion. Lawrie also remains out and Lind has been out with a broken foot. Even if he were to get activated, he hasn’t played for a few weeks.

Buchholz took responsibility for last week’s loss. However, for the fifth consecutive start, he went a a minimum of six complete innings without allowing more than four earned runs. I look for him to get the better of Dickey in this evening’s rematch, the Sox serving notice that they’re still not to be forgotten about. 10* A.L. East GOY

I’m playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins really struggled with Sale yesterday. No surprise there though, as he’s among the best in the game. They’ll be facing a far less intimidating pitcher this afternoon and I like their chances of bouncing back.

While Sale is nasty, Carroll is not. Last time out, he gave up five earned runs in just five innings. During that 5-inning stretch, he gave up 11 hits while walking two, a 2.60 WHIP. Through 10 starts, he’s 3-6 with an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.741 WHIP.

By comparison, Pino has been relatively solid. He allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings last time out, striking out five and walking none. In his previous two starts, he allowed one run in five innings and one run in six innings. In four home starts, despite being 0-2, he has a respectable 3.96 / 1.04 ERA/WHIP combo, averaging better than six innings per start here.

A little over a month ago, Pino limited these same Sox to two run over seven innings. He had seven K’s with just one walk. He didn’t get the “W” but the Twins won 4-2.

The Sox are 1-5 (-4.4) after three or more straight wins. The Twins are 8-6 (+3.3) off three or more consecutive losses. Going back further finds them at a profitable 18-15 (+11.3) the past couple of seasons, off a shutout loss. No sweep today. 10* personal favorite 

I’m playing on SEATTLE. The Mariners are off back-to-back losses. With Iwakuma on the mound tonight (and Hernandez tomorrow) this should be a good opportunity for them to get back on track. 
While he didn’t receive any support last time out, Iwakuma was sharp once again. He’s got an exceptional 1.59 ERA and 0.662 WHIP his last three starts. During that span, he’s averaged 7.6 innings, striking out 21 without walking a single batter. For the season, he’s 8-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.994 WHIP.  At home, those numbers dip to 2.81 and 0.937.
Chen’s numbers don’t compare. While he may be 5-1 on the road, he’s also got a 4.68 ERA in those games. While Iwakuma averages better than seven innings per home start, Chen averages less than six (5.6) per road start.
Iwakuma is backed by a Seattle bullpen which has a 2.31 ERA and 1.121 WHIP at home, having blown three saves here. Chen is supported by a Baltimore bullpen which has blown nine saves on the road, while compiling a 3.74 ERA.
The Mariners have enjoyed success vs. southpaws this season and they’ve hit Chen well in the past. His last visit here resulted in an 8-3 win for Seattle Chen gave up five runs, on eight hits, in just four innings of that game. All things considered, I feel this number could easily be higher. 10* roast 

I’m playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates are playing well right now. With yesterday afternoon’s victory, they’ve won three straight and four of five. In fact, they’re now 10-2 their last 12 home games, 6-0 their last six here. I believe this one sets up nicely for another win.

While the Pirates played here yesterday afternoon, the Dodgers are off an evening (ESPN) game at St. Louis.

Volquez gets the call for the Pirates and he’s been in outstanding form of late. Indeed, he’s got a 0.90 ERA his last four starts, a span of 30 innings. Volquez allowed one earned run or less in all four or those games. The Pirates were 4-0, winning by a combined score of 25-6.

Ryu has been a bit inconsistent of late. Yes, he tossed a gem last time out. However, he got rocked in his previous start. While he limited them to two runs through six innings, the Pirates had 10 hits off Ryu when they faced him earlier this season, hitting .357. Ryu, who was opposed by Cumpton, got a ton of support in that 6/1 contest. I don’t expect him to be so fortunate here.

The Pirates took two of three from the Dodgers here last season, the lone loss coming against Kershaw. They’re 5-2 the last seven series meetings overall. 10* best bet

I’m playing on SAN DIEGO. The Mets took yesterday’s opener by a score of 5-4. This should be an excellent opportunity for the Padres to even up the series. 

Despite a 1-2 record, Ross has an outstanding 1.23 ERA and 0.727 WHIP his last three starts. During that 22 inning stretch, Ross has recorded 24 K’s while walking only one. For the season, he’s got an impressive 2.08 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in 10 home starts. 

Admittedly, Gee has some pretty impressive stats of his own and he’s also had success against San Diego. That said, he’s only made one start since May. I believe the 2-month layoff, followed by an extra long break for the All Star game, may potentially have him a little out of his rhythm. It should also be noted that Gee's night-time ERA is nearly two runs higher than his daytime one. 

Ross, on the other hand, started last Sunday, keeping him in his normal routine here. 

Even with the trade of their closer, the Padres still have a capable bullpen. They’ve been solid as small home favorites the past couple of seasons and I look for them to bounce back with a big win today. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on Milwaukee and Washington to finish UNDER the total. Six of the last nine meetings between these teams, including two of three this season, have fallen below the total. I expect another well-pitched game on Friday.

Strasburg’s home numbers are far better than his stats on the road. In nine away starts, he’s got a poor 4.92 ERA and a mediocre 1.40 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .290 against him. However, at home, he’s got a stellar 2.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .231.

With this being a night game, it should also be noted that his stats in the evening are considerably better than his daytime numbers.

In three July starts, Strasburg has a 2.21 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. In 20.1 July innings, he’s recorded 26 K’s while walking just three.

Lohse took the loss last time out. However, he still had 8 K’s in eight innings, without walking a batter. He’s allowed four or fewer earned runs in 18 of 19 starts this season, including six straight. For the season, he’s 9-4 with a solid 3.26 ER and 1.09 WHIP.

Lohse, who was better after the All Star Break last season, had a superb 2.08 ERA and 0.85 WHIP vs. the Nats last season. Washington batters hit only .191 against him. His last two starts at Washington have finished with final scores of 2-1 and 4-1, Lohse allowing just two earned runs through 15 combined innings.

With the bullpens well-rested and a few of the hitters potentially a little out of rhythm from the break, I look for another low-scoring affair here. 10* blue chip

I’m playing on KC. The streaky Tigers took yesterday’s game, their fourth straight win. They’ve now seen a 4-game win steak proceeded by a 3-game losing streak, followed by another 4-game winning streak. I look for their latest run to come to an end this evening against what I expect to be a very determined KC team.

The Royals arguably need this game more, as the Tigers are team that they are chasing in the standings. They’re 6.5 back and know this is a very important series. Having lost the first two games of the series, including an embarrassing 16-4 blowout in Thursday’s opener, they should have some real urgency to their play here.

Shields and Porcello have pretty similar overall numbers. Porcello is 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.175 WHIP. Shields is 9-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.286 WHIP. Porcello got the better of Shields when the two opposed each other back in the spring. That said, I still believe that Shields has the higher upside and is more capable of dominating than Porcello. His 102 K’s vs. 27 walks (compared to Porcello’s 64/25 ratio) would tend to support that statement. With his team in need of a win, I expect Shields to step up and deliver a strong performance.

Perhaps more important than the historical numbers, it should be noted that Shields enters this game full of confidence. His last start saw him limit the Rays to three hits, through seven shutout innings, striking out 10 and walking only one. Conversely, facing those very same Rays the previous day, Porcello got hammered: 11 hits, 2 HRs, seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, striking out only two. Off that rough outing, Porcello’s confidence could be a little fragile here.

The Royals are 31-21 (+7.4) the last 50+ times they played at home when the line ranged from +100 to -125. That includes a profitable 9-2 (+6.7) mark their last 11 in that situation. I look for Shields to get the better of Porcello in this rematch, the Royals bouncing back with a big and badly needed victory. 10* 1st Half GOY

I’m playing on SEATTLE. This is a big game and a big series for both teams, arguably more so for the Mariners. They’ve fallen nine games back of the A’s in the division race, 5.5 behind the Angels. The M's saved their ace for this game and a loss would really hurt. Safeco is going to be packed and will have an exciting playoff-like atmosphere. While its not exactly a playoff game, Hernandez is at least getting to pitch in a meaningful game in July. He’s in outstanding current form and I expect him to rise to the occasion for this big game.

I successfully played on the A’s in Samardzija’s Oakland debut. I’m well aware that he’s having an excellent season, much better than indicated by his sub-500 record. That said, I still don’t think he’s in the same class as Hernandez. “King Felix” has been among the very best in the game for a number of years and this season has the potential to be one of his very best.

Hernandez has gone 10 straight starts in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs, while lasting at least seven complete innings. Consistent dominance. During that stretch, he’s 6-1 with a 1.40 ERA. For the season, he’s 10-2 with a 2.11 ERA. Scary, when considering that he’s often much better in the second half of the season than the first.

The A’s know all about Hernandez. He’s 17-7 with a 2.64 ERA against them. In his last home start against the A's, Hernandez struck out 11, while walking none, giving up just four hits. In his most recent home start overall, Felix allowed one hit through eight shutout innings.

The M’s have had some trouble with sub-500 teams. They’ve been at their best against top competition though, going 19-10 (+13.7) against teams with winning records. With Felix doing his thing, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on DETROIT. While we’ve got a long way to go, this series sets up as a possible preview for a far more important meeting a few months down the road. While it remains to be seen if either (or both) of these teams make their way to the Fall Classic, I feel the Tigers are providing excellent value in this evening’s series opener.

Verlander has gotten back on track recently and is coming off a win last time out. He’s got a 2.84 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP his last three starts, all of them of the quality variety. During that stretch, he has a dominating 20 K’s vs. just two walks.

Admittedly, Ryu has been very good on the road. That said, he doesn’t face many lineups like this one; the Tigers are batting .283 here on the season. Note that they’re also 18-9 vs. southpaws.

True, the Tigers have lost three straight. This is a team that doesn’t typically allow losing streaks to continue for too long though. The Tigers are 21-10 (+8.6) the past couple of seasons off three or more consecutive losses.

Lets also keep in mind that Verlander is a remarkable 22-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 29 career inter league starts. That includes a perfect 11-0 record and an outstanding 1.78 ERA in his last 13. Verlander has never lost against a National League opponent in Detroit, going 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 14 starts, a commanding 1.23 ERA in winning his last six here. Overall, the Tigers are 13-2 their last 15 home games against NL teams. All things considered, I believe the price could easily be higher. 10* main event

I’m playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies badly need a win. I believe this will prove the perfect matchup for them to get one.

Of course, having lost five of six, the Brewers also badly need a win. They’re only hitting .173 while averaging 2.3 runs their last six games though. With or without Braun, (*questionable) I believe they’ll have trouble hitting a tough southpaw.

Hamels may be 0-2 his last five starts, but he’s also got a stingy 2.10 ERA during that stretch. He’s only given up one home run in seven road starts this season and he has a 2.11 ERA in those games. Hamels is 7-3 in 12 starts vs. the Brewers. They haven’t faced him since last May.

It should be noted that the Phillies are 6-2 in Hamels' last eight starts vs. the Brewers. That includes a perfect 3-0 mark his last three starts here at Milwaukee. Hamels allowed three earned runs in 7 2/3 innings his last start here, striking out 10. He allowed two earned runs in each of his previous two starts here, going the distance in one and 6 2/3 innings in the other.

Needless to say, run support has been a serious issue for Hamels again this season. I believe he’ll finally get some help today though. Estrada has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.933 WHIP in three starts against the Phillies, who last had a look at him in late April. While Estrada does have a winning record, he’s been fortunate to get a lot of run support. He checks in with a poor 4.94 ERA in 17 starts. He’s given up 26 home runs in those games too. (As noted, Hamels has given up only one in seven road starts, seven overall.) Marlon Byrd, who’s been hot (5 HR’s in 7 games) lately, took Estrada deep in this season’s earlier meeting.

With they have sub-500 record overall, the Phillies have quietly thrived in this role; they’re 9-4 (+6.6) as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. I believe they’re catching the Brewers at the right time and with a better starter on the mound, I like their chances of scoring an “upset.” 10* Underdog GOY

I’m playing on WASHINGTON. Just as the Cubs were on a hot streak, they go and trade away Hammel (yesterday’s winner) and today’s originally scheduled starter, Samardzija. While the deal may be a long-term winner for the Cubs, it doesn’t help them today.

Instead of Samardzija, the Cubs will send Villaneuva to the mound. He hasn’t started for a couple of months. Worse, he’s also 0-2 with a 14.62 ERA and 2.625 WHIP in two road starts. While it was a number of years ago, he got rocked in his lone start vs. Washington.

Not exactly who you want to put up against Gonzalez, a pitcher off back-to-back shutouts, one of them at Wrigley last week.

The Nats are 99-80 (+7.6) off a loss the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, they’re 118-77 (+14.7) against sub-500 teams. I like them to bounce back with a convincing win. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN FRANCISCO. After losing three straight, the streaky Padres have won four straight. I expect the Giants to cool them off this afternoon.

Admittedly, Cain’s overall numbers are pretty ugly. He also just got roughed up by the Padres (at SF) a couple of starts ago. I’ve got reason to believe the former Cy Young award winner will be significantly better this afternoon though.

For starters, while he still wasn’t rewarded with t a “W,” Cain got back on track last time out. He tossed seven shutout innings against the Reds. That should restore his confidence.

Additionally, despite not always receiving much run support, Cain has always pitched well at Petco Park. He’s got a 2.29 ERA here and the Padres have hit only .194 against him here. He’s got 111 K’s (against just 36 walks) in 102 innings here, allowing only six home runs.

In his last three starts here, Cain has allowed only ONE earned run in 22 innings, striking out 23 while walking only three. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts here and three or less in nine straight. (Two or less in eight of those.) In fact, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 15 of 16 starts here, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 14 of those! He’s also gone a minimum of six complete innings in eight straight outings here.

While lack of run support has been an issue here over the years, Cain figures to get some this afternoon. Stults is 2-11 with an awful 5.36 ERA and 1.511 WHIP. (By comparison, Cain’s 4.62 ERA and 1.231 WHIP look good.) Stults hasn’t been any better here at “pitcher-friendly” Petco either, as he’s got a 5.27 ERA in eight starts here, averaging just 5 1/3 innings per outing.

While the Padres average 3.0 runs per game at home, the Giants average 4.4 per game on the road. They’ve averaged 4.9 runs per game their last 20 here at SD.

While the Padres are 13-15 (-1.9) in day games, the Giants are a stellar 20-11 (+7.6) when playing during the afternoon. With Cain getting the better of Stults, I like their chances of improving on those stats here. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on DETROIT. While it wasn’t “easy,” I won with the Tigers yesterday. Off that thriller (they hit a walk-off grand-slam to win!) I expect the Tigers to carry the positive momentum into this evening’s contest.

With names like Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez on the staff, its easy to forget about Porcello. That’s among the reasons, in my opinion, why he often provides with the best value on the entire staff. The Tigers are 11-4 (+7.2) when he takes the mound.

Porcello personally already has 10 victories (10-4, 3.50 ERA, 1.188 WHIP) and he’s currently in outstanding form, full of confidence. Indeed, he enters this game on a 16-inning scoreless streak (off a 3-hitter!) and with a 1.23 ERA (0.955 WHIP) his last three starts. When he does get runners on base, he’s among the best in the league (33.3%) at inducing double-plays.

Note that Porcello is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA his last three starts.

While the A’s are 2-0 in his two starts, Mills hasn’t been overly impressive. He’s got a 4.36 ERA and 1.646 WHIP. Keep in mind that he was acquired for $1 and that he may not be too long for the rotation.

All things considered, I feel the Tigers have an excellent shot at improving to 17-8 their last 25 against southpaws and that the price is more than fair. 10* 

I’m playing on SAN DIEGO. The Diamondbacks have taken the first two meetings of the series. I expect the Padres to avoid the sweep this afternoon.

Despaigne tossed a gem in his debut. All he did was toss seven shutout innings of 4-hit ball. He didn’t walk a single batter either. While one start obviously isn’t much of a sample size, it does show that he’s got what it takes to pitch at this level. It should also give him the confidence to know the same.

Padres manager Bud Black said this of Despaigne: "He pitched great didn't he? Are you kidding me? That was great.”

To his credit, Bolsinger has pitched well since being recalled for his latest stint in the big leagues. However, both his recent starts have come at home. On the road, he’s 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.532 WHIP.

Bolsinger is backed by an Arizona bullpen which has a 3.74 ERA. On the other hand, Despaigne is supported by a SD pen which has a 2.40 ERA, a 2.14 mark at home.

The Padres are a lucrative 33-29 (+13.5) the past few seasons, after losing three or more consecutive games. Motivated to snap their skid, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 10* NL West GOM

I’m playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Reds have taken the first three meetings in the series. However, I expect the Giants to have the advantage this afternoon.

Today’s two starters have some similarities. Both bring 7-4 records to the table. Both have had success against today’s opponent. Both are very capable but both have struggled lately. Hudson has been much more consistent overall though.

Even off back-to-back sub-par outings, Hudson's still got a stellar 2.61 ERA and 1.076 WHIP as a starter, averaging 6.9 innings. At home, he’s 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Bochy said this of Hudson: "He's healthy. He'll be fine..."

On the other hand, Bailey has a 4.80 ERA and 1.432 WHIP. On the road, those numbers climb to 5.47 and 1.549. Ugly.

While Bailey is 3-0 against SF, he’s also given up 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings, in his last two starts at AT&T Park. The Reds bailed him out by scoring 10 and 12 runs in those games but I expect him to receive anywhere near that kind of good fortune here.

While the Giants got a look at Bailey a few weeks ago, the Reds haven’t faced Hudson since last July.

The Reds bullpen has a 4.15 ERA and 1.429 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has a 2.91 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The Reds average 4.0 runs per game vs. right-handers, hitting .247. The Giants average 4.2 runs per game vs. right-handers, hitting .252. No sweep today. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on KC. The Angels entered the series as the hotter team. However, the Royals took yesterday’s opener and I look for them to have the advantage again this afternoon.

While he lost his last start, Ventura was again sharp. He allowed just two runs through seven innings, topping 100 miles on the radar gun. He’s got a 3.20 ERA and a 1.245 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He’s also 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA (1.143 WHIP) his last three starts, averaging a healthy seven innings per outing. For June, he’s 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA.

One of the many things Ventura has done well is limit the damage when runners are on base. Opposing batters are hitting .208 against him with runners in scoring position.

On the other hand, Santiago is 0-7 with a poor 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP as a starter. That includes an 0-4 mark with a 5.49 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in four road starts. He’s only averaging 4.9 innings in those games too.

That being the case, note that the Angels’ bullpen ranks near the bottom of the bigs with 12 blown saves and a 4.38 ERA. On the road, that number climbs to 4.81 with a 1.446 WHIP. (They picked up Jason Grilli yesterday but the 37-year-old is 0-2 with a 4.87 ERA and 11 saves.)

While Santiago has had some success against KC in the past, the Royals have at least seen him a few times. Meanwhile, Ventura will have the advantage of starting against the Angels for the first time.

The Royals have thrived as small and medium sized home favorites. The recent cold stretch notwithstanding, they’ve had an excellent month. I expect them to make it two in a row here. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN DIEGO. I successfully played against the Padres in their last game - the one where they were no-hit by Tim Lincecum. However, I believe this is a far better matchup for them.

The Padres are back home and they’re in one of their better roles. They’re a solid 25-15 (+4.9) the last 40 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

These same two starters opposed each other back in May, at Arizona. Neither pitched well. Tyson Ross is one of the Padres who always seems to like his home cooking though - that and pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In eight starts here, he’s got a 2.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s averaged 6 2/3 innings per start here while striking out more than one batter per inning.

While Ross has been plagued by poor run support, the Padres figure to score a few tonight. McCarthy is 1-10 with a brutal 5.38 ERA. On the road, he’s 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. McCarthy has surrendered seven home runs in six road starts, a span of 33.3 innings. By comparison, Ross has allowed three home runs in 53.3 home innings.

True, McCarthy’s lone win came against the Padres. However, that was back on 5/3. He’s got a 6.62 ERA his last six starts, a 6.50 (1.611 WHIP) mark his last three.

McCarthy’s recent comments don’t exactly inspire confidence: "The frustrating thing is I don't have any more answers this week than I did last week or the week before. I don't know what the heck I'm doing wrong. ... It just doesn't seem to be coming together."

Ross has pitched well in both his career home starts against Arizona, allowing just two earned runs through 15 innings. I expect him to out pitch and outlast McCarthy here, en route to a win for the home team. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on KC. I successfully backed the Angels just yesterday, so I’m aware that they’re playing well right now. That said, I believe the value lies the other way this evening.

From a scheduling perspective, KC should have an advantage. The Royals had yesterday off and they’ve been home for a week. On the other hand, the Angels played out West yesterday, before making the trip to the mid-West.

While fatigue on back-to-back days doesn’t factor into baseball the same way it can for sports like basketball and hockey, I do believe the Royals will benefit from yesterday’s off-day. They’d been struggling and the day off figures to have come at the right time.

With a 2.70 ERA his last three starts - all of them of the quality variety - Vargas is in fine form. He’s 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA on the season, averaging 6.8 innings per start and 7.8 his last three.

Admittedly, Shoemaker has also been stingy. He’s 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.119 WHIP as a starter and 5-1 with a 3.42 ERA overall.

I believe its worth mentioning that this will be the first time that Shoemaker will be starting against a team for the second time. The Royals scored three runs (2 earned) off him in five innings the last time they saw him, banging out eight hits in the process. On what figures to be a warm humid evening, I won’t be surprised if the rookie isn’t quite as sharp as most will expect him to be.

This has been one of the Royals’ best roles as they’re 8-1 (+6.8) when playing at home when the line ranged from +100 to -125. I believe they’ve got an excellent shot at improving on those stats this evening. 10* AL Best Bet

I’m playing on KC. Red hot only a few days ago, the Royals have suddenly dropped three straight. I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon.

Both rookie starters have similar overall numbers. Elias is 6-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.196 WHIP. Ventura is 5-5 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.254 WHIP. I believe there are a couple of things to currently like more about Ventura though.

Elias pitched well against light-hitting San Diego last time out. However, his previous two starts he allowed 10 earned runs in 11 combined innings. He’s still got a 5.50 ERA his last three. On the other hand, Ventura is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA his last three starts, bouncing back from a poor May.

Ventura has also done a much better job of keeping the ball in the park. He hasn’t allowed any home runs in his last few starts and he’s only given up two here all season. Meanwhile, Elias has given up at least one in each of his recent starts and 11 on the season.

The Royals have thrived as home favorites in this range, going 11-5 (+4.2) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I look for the bats to come back to life as they improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on DETROIT. The Royals are rolling and they beat a former Cy Young Award winner in yesterday’s opener. They’re up against the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner today though. I expect their winning streak to come to an end. 

Scherzer is very tough to beat, particularly here at Detroit. Indeed, the Tigers have won each of his last 13 starts here. Scherzer is 10-0 with a 2.38 ERA in those games. That includes a 2.16 mark this season. In 41 home innings, he has 50 K’s vs. just four home runs allowed.

Last time out, Scherzer tossed a complete-game 3-hit shutout.

Admittedly, Ventura has a good arm and he's also been pretty stingy recently. He’s arguably pitched better than his 4-5 record indicates. That said, I’m not sure he’s quite ready to go toe-to-toe against one of the very best in the game. 

Prior to yesterday, the Tigers had dominated the Royals here. They’re still 6-2 the last eight meetings here and 15-5 the last 20. The Tigers are also a perfect 9-0 the last nine times that Scherzer started against the Royals, Scherzer allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven of those games including each of the last four. The Tigers were a considerably heavier favorite in most of those games than they are here. I feel this price could also easily be higher. 10* personal favorite 

I’m playing on Tampa and Baltimore to finish OVER the total. These teams have both been involved in a number of low-scoring games recently. Both saw yesterday’s game stay below the number. Barely. Those results have worked in our favor as they’re among the factors helping to keep this O/U line so low. I believe that it will prove to be too low.

Odorozzi’s off a gem last time out. However, before getting too excited keep in mind that he’s still 2-7 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.416 WHIP in 13 road starts. He’s averaged only five innings per start. Over his last three starts, he’s still got an ugly 5.75 ERA. 

Its true that Chen has been pitching very well in his last several outings. However, its also true that he’s still got a poor 4.70 ERA (1.402 WHIP) in six road starts, four of which have finished above the total. He only averages 5.1 innings per road start.

While their recent string of “unders” occurred at home, the O’s have still seen the OVER go 21-14 on the road. Their road games are averaging 9.6 runs. Tampa home games are averaging 8.3 runs, the OVER going 19-13-2. 

Eight of Baltimore’s last 13 visits here have seen at least eight combined runs. I suspect this one will too. 10* blue chip

I’m playing on BALTIMORE. The Jays blanked the Orioles yesterday. This afternoon, I expect the O’s to have the advantage.

Norris tossed eight shutout innings last time out, limiting the Red Sox to only four hits. "Bud was really good …" notedmanager Buck Showalter. The O’s won 4-0. As the Jays already found out, Norris has quietly been very good at home. In five starts here, he’s 3-1 (team is 4-1) with a superb 2.38 ERA and 1.118 WHIP.

Norris has also delivered quality starts both times he’s seen them this season. He held them to three runs and five hits at Toronto, earning the “W” in an 11-4 Baltimore win. He also tossed seven shutout innings against the Jays here at Camden Yards on 4/12, the O’s winning 2-1.

While Norris has thrived at home, Dickey has been terrible on the road. In five road starts, he’s 1-3 (team is 1-4) with a 6.41 ERA and 1.838 WHIP. That’s nearly two baserunners per inning. Having that many runners on base is particularly hard on the catcher with a knuckle-ball pitcher on the mound.

Note that Dickey has given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts vs. the O's, a span of 18 2/3 innings. Since joining the Jays, he’s got an 0-2 record and a 6.93 ERA in four starts vs. Baltimore.

The O’s are an outstanding 103-77 (+32.6) off a loss the past couple of seasons. That includes a 13-7 (+7.2) mark off a shutout loss. I expect the O’s to improve on those stats here and believe the low price is offering excellent value. 10* best bet

I’m playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I backed the Giants yesterday afternoon and they snapped a 3-game slide with a 7-1 victory. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight’s series opener against the Rockies.

Lincecum shook off a poor start at Cincinnati by delivering a quality effort vs. the Mets last time out. Over his last two home starts, he’s allowed three earned runs in 11 innings. While he’s only 3-2 (3.86 ERA) in eight home starts, the Giants are a profitable 6-2 (+3.4) in those games. Overall, they’re 9-4 (+4.6) when he takes the mound.

De La Rosa’s certainly been nothing special. He’s got a 4.58 ERA away from Coors, going 3-3. He’s off back to back losses, walking seven batters in the process. Last time out, he gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings.

The Giants have already seen De La Rosa twice this season and they rocked him in the game here at San Francisco. In that 4/11 game, they scored six runs against him in 4 1/3 innings. Going back further finds him at 0-4 with an 8.59 ERA in his last five starts here at AT&T. Needless to say, he doesn’t like pitching here much.

On the other hand, the Rockies haven’t seen Lincecum since last season. The last time he faced them, he allowed just two runs through eight complete innings. He didn’t factor in the decision but the Giants won 3-2.

The Rockies average 3.7 runs per game away from Colorado, hitting .239 as a team. Conversely, the Giants average 4.1 runs per game here at SF, hitting .261.

Meanwhile, the Giants’ bullpen has a spectacular 1.89 ERA and 0.943 WHIP here at SF, considerably better than Colorado’s 3.65 mark on the road.

When also considering that the Giants have owned the Rockies here, going 15-3 the last 18 meetings, I feel the price could easily be higher. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on CINCINNATI. The Dodgers have taken the first two games of the series and they send a hot pitcher to the mound. The Reds have a hot pitcher of their own though and I believe they’ve got excellent shot at bouncing back with a win.

These same two starters opposed each other back in late May, at LA. Cueto took the loss, despite allowing just one earned run and only four hits. Ryu allowed three earned runs but got the win.

Including that result, Ryu is 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.259 WHIP on the season. Cueto is only 5-5. However, he’s got a spectacular 1.97 ERA and 0.792 WHIP. Admittedly, Ryu has been very tough on the road. However, the same can be said of Cueto at home.

While Ryu averages 5.5 innings per start, Cueto averages 7.7. Ryu has 53 K’s in 64 1/3 innings. Cueto has 97 K’s in 96 innings.

Opposing batters hit a mere .160 (.153 at home) vs. Cueto, the best mark in the majors.

Even with yesterday’s setback, their second straight, the Reds are still a highly profitable 103-68 (+25) the past few seasons, after losing their previous game. With Cueto avenging the earlier loss vs. Ryu, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN DIEGO. The Nationals come in on a roll and they took yesterday’s opener. I look for the Padres to cool them off this evening though.

Cashner may be only 2-5 but he's been very good. Through nine starts, he’s got a stellar 2.35 ERA. In five starts here at Petco, he’s 2-2 with a superb 1.67 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. While he’s missed a few weeks, the Padres are confident he’s ready to return.

Cashner, who is supported by a Padre bullpen which has a 2.39 ERA here at San Diego, noted: "Hopefully we don't miss a beat when I come back.”

Like Cashner, Treinen hasn’t received much run support. While his ERA is admittedly very good, he’s got a high (1.606) WHIP. He’s only made one road start and he walked five batters in that game.

The Padres are a respectable 23-15 (+2.9) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range the past couple of seasons. During that time, the Nats are only 22-37 (-13) as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range.

Cashner is 0-2 at Washington. However, he’s 1-0 vs. the Nats here at Petco, delivering a quality start against them here last May. The Padres won 13-4. I look for Cashner and co. to bounce back with a win tonight. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on DETROIT. Both teams had yesterday off. Both saw their Sunday game finish in a score of 4-0. The Tigers lost 4-0 at Seattle. Playing at home, the Jays blanked the Royals by a score of 4-0. This game is at Detroit though, where the Tigers have had their way with the Jays in recent seasons. I expect them to have the edge in this evening’s series opener.

The Tigers, who are 6-1 the last seven times that they hosted the Jays, are already 2-0 this season after being held scoreless in their previous game. In each case they responded with six runs in their next game.

Sanchez was very sharp again last time out and is currently in outstanding form. He allowed only three hits and just one run through 8 1/3 innings last time out, recording nine K’s while walking only one. He’s 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.836 WHIP his last three starts, averaging 6.8 innings per start. He has yet to allow a home run this season and has now given up three or fewer earned runs in 10 consecutive starts.

Note that Sanchez is 2-0 in his most recent two starts vs. the Jays, pitching well in both games.

While he’s been solid overall and while he did manage to pick up the “W," Hutchinson got roughed up last time out. Through just five innings, he gave up five runs. He walked four batters and served up three long-balls. Remember, Sanchez has 14 K’s vs. just one walk his last two starts and that he has yet to give up a HR this year.

The Jays, who are just 12-18 (-7.8) the past 30 times they were off a shutout win, don’t hit quite as well away from Toronto, averaging .255 on the road. The Tigers hit .287 as a team here at home.

All things considered, I feel the Tigers have an excellent shot at bouncing back and that the price could easily be higher. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on TAMPA. Off another loss yesterday, the Rays desperately need a victory. I believe this matchup will provide them with an excellent opportunity to get one. 

Cobb got roughed up at Toronto last time out. However, the Jays have been hitting a lot of pitchers hard lately. Even with that sub-par outing, he’s still got a stellar 2.93 ERA and 1.043 WHIP on the season. He hadn’t allowed a single run in either of his previous two starts.

Wolf has only made one start since 2012 and it didn’t go too well. In five innings, he gave up six runs (4 earned) on nine hits. He took the “L” in a 7-1 loss.

While he hasn’t faced them in a number of years, Wolf is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in two starts vs. the Rays. On the other hand, Cobb is 2-0 with a commanding 1.35 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in two starts vs. the Marlins. 

The Rays have owned their instate rivals in recent seasons and this has been like a home away from home for them. While the talent gap may have narrowed a little this season, I expect the Rays to have the edge again tonight. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on Pittsburgh and LA to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Pirates have been a profitable “under” team on the road this season. They figure to have some trouble scoring this evening. 

The Pirates, who average only 3.2 runs per game on the road (and hit only .228) will be up against Greinke. With 11 K’s against 0 walks in his last start, Greinke is very clearly still capable of dominating. He’s 8-1 with a 2.18 ERA on the season, striking out 76 in 66 innings. Greinke’s last home start vs. the Pirates came last spring and resulted in a 3-0 victory. Greinke allowed only two hits, without walking a batter, throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings.

Volquez goes for the Pirates. He may not have the numbers that Greinke does but he’s still seen the UNDER go 8-2 on the season, 4-0 on the road. His last start finished with a score of 4-2. The previous one had a score of 3-1, Volquez allowing only three hits through six innings. 

Volquez is backed by a Pittsburgh pen which has a solid 2.86 ERA on the season.

Needless to say, the Dodgers are fairly heavy favorites here. Therefore, its worth noting that the UNDER is 20-10-2 the past few seasons when they’ve been listed as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range. I expect those stats to improve tonight, this one turning into a pitcher’s duel. 10* blue chip

I’m playing on LA and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total. Barely. However, I expect tonight’s finale to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch.

Kershaw was in top form last time out. He tossed six shutout innings, allowed only two hits. He’ll face a Reds’ lineup which is averaging a mere 3.3 runs per game away from Cincinnati, hitting .234. The Reds have already struck out 24 times in this series, managing only 13 hits. Over their last four games, they’re hitting .224.

Bailey’s overall numbers aren’t too impressive. However, he’s off a quality start last time out and he typically pitches well here. He’s got a 2.05 ERA his last three starts here. He went at least seven innings in all three of those starts and allowed two or fewer earned runs in each.

Bailey and Kershaw opposed each other twice last season, both games finishing below the total. The game at Cincy finished with a score of 3-2. The game here at LA finished with a final score of 2-1. I’m looking for another well-pitched affair. 10* blue chip

I’m playing on KC. While I lose with the Royals yesterday, I’m coming right back with them again today. 

I successfully backed the Royals the last time that Guthrie, who has now allowed four or fewer earned runs in 13 of his last 14 starts, took the mound. While he didn’t get the win, Guthrie was tough. He allowed just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. His teams are 4-1 in five career starts vs. the Astros.

McHugh was also strong last time out and he has solid stats overall. That said, he’s still got a 5.16 ERA his last four starts.

Recent results notwithstanding, the Royals still have betting hitting and bullpen stats than the Astros. 

Playing in a division that includes the Tigers, the Royals know they need to take advantage of games against teams like Houston, which still has the worst record in the American League. 

The Royals have been excellent as home favorites of this size. In fact, they’re 10-2 (+7.3) the last 12 times that they played here when the line ranged from -125 to -150. I expect them to bounce back. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on KC. The Royals swept the Astros at Houston in mid-April. They’re 14-5 their last 19 in the series, 6-1 the last seven here at home. I their chances of continuing that dominance in this evening’s series opener.

Ventura has pitched much better than his 2-4 record suggests. Averaging better than six innings through his nine starts, he’s got a stingy 2.80 ERA and 1.134 WHIP. In 54 innings, he’s recorded 56 K’s while walking only 16.

Ventura limited the Astros to two runs (only one earned) through seven innings in a 4-2 win at Houston last month. He allowed just four hits, in picking up his first “W.”

Ventura’s biggest problem recently has been a lack of run support. I don’t expect that to be an issue here though.

Feldman got off to a great start. As a result, his overall numbers still look solid. However, then he got tendinitis in his right bicep and he hasn’t been the same since. Over his last four starts, he’s 0-2 with a 5.57 ERA. Over his last two starts, he’s given up 19 hits in just nine total innings. Throw in a few walks and that translates to a 2.20 WHIP.

Admittedly, the Royals haven’t hit as well as they’d like. They average 3.9 runs per game (4.1 vs. right-handers) and hit .254. That’s a lot better than the Astros though. They average 3.6 runs and hit .232. On the road, Houston averages 3.3 runs while batting a mere .221.

Throw in the fact that the KC bullpen has a respectable 3.48 ERA and 1.292 WHIP compared to the Astros’ 5.27 and 1.523 mark (5.40, 16.26 on the road!) and I believe the Royals could easily be heavier favorites. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN DIEGO. The Cubs took yesterday’s opener and they check in as the hotter team. However, I look for the Padres to even the series tonight. 
Stauffer, who has a 2.41 ERA in 12 relief appearances this season, should be excited about the opportunity to start and he should also be happy that start comes against the Cubs. In three starts vs. Chicago, he’s got a 2.37 ERA in three starts vs. the Cubs.
On the other hand, Jackson may not be as thrilled to see San Diego. He’s 0-4 with a 5.85 ERA in eight starts vs. the Padres. That includes a terrible 10.97 ERA in two starts against them last season. 
 With this being his first start of the season, Stauffer may not go that deep. Note that he’s supported by a Padre bullpen which has a 2.01 ERA here at Petco. 
While Stauffer hasn’t gotten any support (literally) in his three starts vs. the Cub, I expect the Padres to provide him with some here.
The Cubs are 51-91 the past few seasons after a win. During that stretch, the Padres are 29-23 when off three or more consecutive losses. I look for them to bounce back here. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on BOSTON. The visitors come in as the hotter team. However, I expect the home team to have the edge in this all-southpaw affair.

I successfully played on the Jays the last time that Happ started. I felt that was a favourable matchup. Not only were they playing at Toronto but Happ was facing a Cleveland line which hadn’t been hitting well against left-handed pitching. Sure enough, Happ delivered a very solid outing. This matchup isn’t likely to be nearly as good for him though.

While the Sox have struggled to score runs against right-handed pitching this season, they’re averaging a healthy 5.3 runs per game vs. southpaws. They’re 10-4 (+4.5) in those games, improving to 71-52 the past 2+ seasons.

Happ isn’t exactly a Cy Young candidate either. True, he's 2-1 with a solid 3.57 ERA. Nothing wrong with that. However, a closer look reveals a high 1.751 WHIP. That suggests he’s been fortunate to have a respectable ERA and that could easily be worse. He’s got nearly as many walks (12) as K’s (14).

Lets not forget that Happ is 42-43 and that he has a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP for his career. That includes a 4.91 ERA (1.68 WHIP) against the Red Sox.

Also, keep in mind that Happ only averages 4.4 innings per start and that the Jays’ bullpen has an ugly 5.26 ERA. On the road, that number climbs to 5.77, to go along with a 1.577 WHIP.

Doubront’s career stats aren’t overly impressive either and neither are this year’s stats. However, he has been pitching well recently. His last three starts have all been solid, as he’s got a 2.55 ERA during that stretch. Last time out, he allowed just one run through 6 1/3 innings.

Doubront has pitched well in recent starts vs. the Jays. The last time he faced them was last September. He allowed only four hits and two runs through seven innings, earning a 5-2 victory.

After a steady dose of right-handed pitching, the Sox should be happy to face a southpaw. They’ll be desperate for a victory and I look for them to get one. 10* AL East GOM

I’m playing on SAN FRANCISCO. After winning the series opener, the Giants have dropped back-to-back games. The Giants remain a healthy 96-79 (+11.1) off a loss the past 2+ seasons though. That includes a 14-7 mark when off a shutout loss. The last time that they got blanked, they responded by scoring 10 runs in their next game. They’re 2-0 in that situation this season.

The boxscore shows that Vogelsong gave up four runs in six innings last time out. However, he actually had very good stuff, as evidenced by his 8 K’s vs. 1 walk. Despite facing Atlanta for the second time in three starts, he basically cruised until the sixth inning. He still has a stellar 2.79 ERA his last three starts. Note that he didn’t give up a home run in any of those games and that he hasn’t given up one at home all season. Additionally, note that he’s got a 1.20 ERA in two home starts against the Marlins, allowing two combined earned runs in 15 innings.

Turner got roughed up again last time out. In four starts, he’s 0-1 with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.688 WHIP.

Turner, who is 0-10 in 17 career road starts, doesn’t typically last too long (averaging 5.3 innings per start) and the Miami bullpen has a 4.80 ERA on the road. Note that the Marlins are 4-13 in his 17 career road starts.

The last couple of days notwithstanding, the Marlins are still terrible away from Miami. I believe the price on the Giants is reasonable and I look for them to salvage the split. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on TORONTO. These teams have split the first two meetings of the series. The Jays won the opener by a score of 5-4. The Indians responded with a 15-4 blowout victory in yesterday’s contest. I expect the Jays to have the advantage in this evening’s rubber game and believe that getting them at this price is providing excellent value.

Happ’s ERA took a hit against the Angels last time out, as he gave up four runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Obviously, that’s not too good. (He did have 4Ks vs. just 1 walk. so control wasn’t an issue.) He tossed five shutout innings in his only previous start though, allowing just three hits. He knows he’s fighting to keep a spot in the rotation and facing Cleveland, a team which hasn’t hit well against southpaws, gives him a good shot at bouncing back.

The Indians are only hitting .208 against left-handed starters, averaging a mere 3.3 runs. Not surprisingly, they’re just 4-9 (-5.7) against southpaws.

Happ figures to get some support. The Jays average a healthy 5.4 runs per game here at Toronto and Salazar has a 6.45 ERA in his three road starts, all of them Cleveland losses. In seven starts overall, he’s got a pretty high 1.609 WHIP, averaging only 5.2 innings. 

While the Indians have struggled to string together victories, the Jays are a solid 11-8 (+3.6) off a loss. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* best bet

I’m playing on KC. Both these teams will be hungry for a victory here. The Rockies have dropped three of four overall, the Royals have lost four straight here at KC. I expect the Royals to have the edge.

Shields got roughed up by the Tigers two starts ago. However, he immediately bounced back. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings, en route to an 8-0 victory. For the season, he’s got a 2.80 ERA.

On the other hand, Morales gave up five runs (4 earned) in six innings last time out. In his previous start, he gave up six runs (5 earned) in five innings. Before that, he gave up four runs in five innings. Add it all up and he’s got a 7.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP his last three starts.

While Morales has a 4.49 ERA for his career; Shields’ career ERA is 3.76.

The Rockies are only 12-30 (-20.5) in Interleague play the past few seasons. During that time, they’re also 24-37 (-4.1) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. Over that period, the Royals are 27-17 (+3.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, 6-1 (+4.7) their last seven in that situation.

The Royals got back on track towards the end of their road trip, closing with a victory and winning four of six. With Shields getting the better of Morales, I expect them to bring that positive momentum back home with them. 10* Pitching Mismatch GOM

I’m playing on TEXAS. The Rangers have owned their instate “rivals” and I expect them to have the advantage again this evening.

While Lewis’ stats took a hit against Colorado last time out, he’d been pretty solid in his recent previous starts. The Rangers 2-0 when he starts on the road this season.

Lewis should be happy about this matchup, as he's dominated the Astros over his career. In nine appearances, six starts, he’s 4-1 with a superb 1.72 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. The Astros have hit only .167 against him. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in five of his six starts vs. Houston and one or less in four of those. Since 2011, he’s made four starts against Houston. He’s lasted 28 1/3 innings in those four games while allowing a mere four runs. A closer look reveals that he had 30 K’s vs. only three walks in those games. The Rangers have won his last three vs. the Astros by a combined score of 18-6.

On the other hand, Peacock is 0-2 against Texas. Peacock has been killing himself with walks. In fact, he’s issuing 6.7 of them per nine innings. That’s led to a 1.734 WHIP, 1.808 here at Houston.

Peacock is supported by a Houston bullpen which has a 6.21 ERA and 1.662 WHIP. (The Texas bullpen has a 4.40 ERA and 1.348 WHIP.)

The Rangers average 4.4 runs per game on the road, hitting .265. The Astros average 3.6 runs per game here at Houston, hitting .225.

We’re getting a more reasonable price than we would be if the game was at Arlington. However, with the Rangers having won 19 of their last 22 here, its not like the Astros have much of a homefield advantage. I look for Lewis and co. to bounce back with a big win. 10* AL West GOM

I’m playing on TAMPA BAY. Momentum can be an important factor for teams. The Rays got back on track with a much needed victory yesterday. That snapped a 6-game slide here at Tampa. I expect them to ride the wave into this afternoon’s game.

Archer should be happy to make his first afternoon start of the season. In 10 daytime starts, he had a 2.73 ERA and 1.10 WHIP last season.

Tomlin pitched very well last time out. However, that was his season debut, as he had some elbow issues, and first start since 2012. Before getting too excited about him, keep in mind that in his last season in the majors, Tomlin had a 7.06 ERA on the road and a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in the daytime.

Also remember that for his career, Tomlin’s got a dreadful 6.78 ERA in the day (compared to 4.29 at night) and a 5.64 ERA on the road, much worse than his 4.11 mark at home. He’s 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA here at Tropicana.

The Indians have been horrible away from Cleveland. They’re hitting only .215 on the road, averaging just 3.6 runs. The Rays are averaging 5.1 runs per game here at Tampa, hitting for an average of .279. Having regained some positive momentum, I look for them to close out the series with another big win. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on MILWAUKEE. After taking yesterday’s opener, the Yankees have won three straight. Meanwhile, after yesterday’s loss, the Brewers have now dropped three in a row. I like their chances of bouncing back here though.

While I did successfully play against the Brewers the last time that Lohse started, they didn’t lose because of him. All Lohse did was allow two runs through 6 1/3 innings, yet another quality start for him. He’s now 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA. At home, he’s 2-1 with a superb 1.99 ERA and a microscopic 0.706 WHIP.

While I didn’t expect Lohse to get much run support last time out, he should get some today. Sabathia gave up 10 hits and five runs in just 3 2/3 innings last time out. In his previous start, he gave up nine hits and four runs, in five innings. That’s 19 hits and nine runs 8 2/3 innings. Not good. Overall, he’s now 3-4 with a 5.75 ERA.

While Sabathia is supported by a NY bullpen which has a 4.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road, Lohse is backed by a Brewer pen which has a 2.14 ERA and 0.928 WHIP at home.

While the Yanks are averaging only 3.6 runs (.245 avg) against right-handers, the Brewers are 5-1 vs. southpaw starters, averaging 4.8 runs and hitting .259. All things considered, I believe this price could easily be higher. 10* personal fav

I’m playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Reds yesterday and I like them again here. 

Both starters have been very good. Lyles is 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Simon is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. However, a closer look shows that Lyles’ ERA climbs to 3.91 when he’s on the road. 

While Simon will have the advantage of starting against the Rockies for the first time, Lyles got hammered in his lone 2013 start vs. the Reds. He lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up 9 runs (8 earned) en route to a 10-0 loss. 

The Rockies are 19-26 (-4) the past few seasons when playing a road game where the line ranged from +100 to +125. During that time, the Reds were 28-18 (+7.3) when playing a home game with an O/U line of -101 to -125. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 10* NL Best Bet

I’m playing SAN DIEGO on the Run-Line. (+1.5 Runs) This game isn’t expected to see many runs. In fact, as I write this, the O/U line is only 5.5 at a lot of shops. With runs expected to be at a premium, every run takes on added significance. That said, I believe that getting an extra +1.5 runs with the home team here, is offering excellent value.

Fernandez has proven to be an excellent pitcher. However, he’s not generally nearly as good on the road. This season, he’s got a 0.78 ERA at home but a 4.50 ERA on the road. That was the case last season too. He had a 1.19 ERA at home but a 3.50 mark on the road. 

The Marlins are only 6-9 in Fernandez’s 15 career road starts. A closer look shows that all six of those wins came by two runs or less and that four of them came by a single run. In other words, they’d be just 2-13 if being asked to laying -1.5 runs in all his 15 starts.

Ross can pitch and he should be fired up to go head-to-head with Miami’s ace. Like Fernandez, he’s better at home. In fact, he’s got an ugly 5.94 ERA on the road but a stellar 1.67 mark in four starts here at Petco. The Padres have won his last three home starts and they’d be 5-1 his last six here, if getting +1.5 runs in each. 

The Marlins are 10-16 (-6.6) vs. the money-line the past couple of seasons, when off three or more consecutive wins. During that time, the Padres are a profitable 28-22 (+11.8) off three or more consec. losses. I expect AT LEAST a “cover” tonight. 10* 

I’m playing on TEXAS. The Rangers were beaten 12-1 yesterday, the second time in a week that happened. They responded to the previous 12-1 blowout with a 5-1 win in their next game. With that win, they’re 3-0 on the season, after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. A couple of weeks earlier, the Rangers responded to a 16-2 loss with a 4-3 win the next day. Also, off a season-opening 14-10 loss against the Phillies, the Rangers answered with a 3-2 victory the next day. 

While he hasn’t dominated, Lewis has certainly been respectable, giving the Rangers a chance to win. He checks in at 2-1 with a 4.22 ERA. In 21 1/3 innings, he has 20 K’s against only five walks. 

The Rockies are a big hitting team at Coors Field. On the road, however, they’re averaging 4.0 runs while hitting .254. 

Meanwhile De La Rosa is 1-3 with a 5.82 ERA in four road starts. 

The Rangers are 67-45 (+4.2) against southpaw starters the past couple of seasons and they’re hitting .297, while averaging 6.0 runs per game, against left-handers this season. They’re also a profitable 94-61 (+17.3) off a loss the past couple of seasons. I  feel the price is fair and I expect them to bounce back, once again. 10* best bet

I’m playing on CLEVELAND. While they lost a tough one yesterday, the Indians still took two of three from Chicago. Today’s matchup should provide an excellent opportunity to immediately bounce back.

McAllister was forced to pitch on short rest (for the first time) last time out and didn’t fare too well. He’s back on regular rest now and also back at home. That should make him feel good as he’s been exceptional (2-0/1.32 ERA/0.878 WHIP) in two starts here.

McAllister, who is backed by a Cleveland bullpen which has a 2.82 ERA here at home, should also be happy to see Minnesota. He was 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA last year in three starts against the Twins last season. The Indians were 3-0 in those games, winning by a combined score of 18-9.

McAllister should get some support as Gibson has struggled of late. He got hit hard both his last two starts and has an ugly 9.00 ERA and 2.375 WHIP on the road.

While Gibson is averaging four innings per road start, McAllister has averaged 6.8 here at home.

While McAllister will have the advantage of starting against the Twins for the first time this season, the Indians already saw Gibson here last month. He beat them that day but I like the Indians to get some payback this evening. 10* AMERICAN LEAGUE GOM

I’m playing on CINCINNATI. After the Reds took Thursday’s opener, the Brewers won yesterday’s game by a score of 2-0. With Cueto on the mound, I like the Reds’ chances of bouncing back.

While he hasn’t gotten much support and therefore doesn’t have the record to show for it, Cueto has been outstanding. Averaging nearly eight innings per start, he’s got a 1.15 ERA and 0.766 WHIP on the season. Over his last three starts, he’s posted a 0.35 ERA and a 0.577 WHIP. In his last home start, he tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout, striking out 12 without walking a single batter.

Granted, Gallardo has also been pretty good this season. He hasn’t been as dominant as Cueto though and he also got hit quite hard (5 runs in 6 innings) the last time that he faced the Reds.

The Reds are a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that Cueto faced the Brewers here at Cincinnati, Cueto allowing three earned runs or less in ALL seven of those starts and two or less in six of them. In fact, all eight of Cueto’s career home starts against the Brewers have been of the “quality” variety, Cueto going 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in those games. Over his last five home starts vs. the Brewers, Cueto has allowed a mere six combined earned runs.

The Brewers aren’t in one of their better roles; even with a few wins in that situation this season, they’re just 15-27 (-6.2) the past 42 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. During that stretch, the Reds are a respectable 36-24 (+3.4) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

The Reds are already 3-0 this season after getting shutout. I expect them to remain perfect in that situation here. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on Baltimore and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. Given the high ERA’s of the two starters, many are expecting a lot of runs here. I believe that sentiment is helping to provide us with excellent line value. I also believe that both starters are more capable than their early stats indicate and that both will be confident about pitching here.

After a couple of rough outings, Nolasco should be thrilled to return home to Minnesota. In his lone start here, he allowed just one run and five hits through eight complete innings, good for a 1.12 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.

The O’s haven’t seen Nolasco for a number of years - but he does have a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in three starts against them. He went seven innings in each and two of the three stayed below the total.

Jimenez should also be happy about making a trip to Minnesota. He pitched very well in both starts against the Twins last season and he was dominant here at Minnesota. In that game, he recorded 13 K’s (against just one walk) while allowing only five hits and one run, through 6 2/3 innings. With both of last season’s games finishing with exactly six combined runs, the UNDER is 5-1 in his six starts against the Twins. I expect those stats to improve tonight. 10* blue chip

I’m playing on ARIZONA. The Rockies are rolling while the Diamondbacks are struggling. I like the Dbax to bounce back with a badly needed win tonight though.

Collmenter is off a gem last time out. He tossed six shutout innings against the Phillies. He only gave up four hits and didn’t walk a batter.

Collmenter had this to say: "It's great to be able to give the team a chance to win. It’s something as a part of the starting rotation you take pride in.”

Collmenter should be happy to see Colorado. He’s won both his starts while posting a 2.49 ERA in seven home games against the Rockies.

On the other hand, Lyles may not be too happy about a trip to Phoenix. He’s 0-2 in three starts against Arizona. He’s got a dreadful 10.43 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in those games. His team lost all three of those games, the losses coming by a combined score of 31-15.

The Dbax get an off-day tomorrow, before starting a series at San Diego. They’d desperately like a win before that trip and I look for them to bounce back and get one. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Padres took yesterday’s opener. However, I expect the Giants to have the advantage tonight. 

The Giants are 6-4 (+1.7) off a loss this season, 92-77 (+8.6) the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they’ve gone a respectable 69-56 (+11.8) vs. southpaw starters. They’re quite familiar with the one they’ll see tonight. 

While he has a 7-4 record in 16 starts against the Giants, Stults has a poor 5.18 ERA and 1.387 WHIP. Sandoval and Posey have both fared particularly well against him.

On the other hand, Cain has a losing record at the Padres, despite having a solid 3.04 ERA and 1.147 WHIP against them. Lack of run support plagued Cain again against the Padres last week, as he allowed a single (unearned) run through seven innings but lost 2-1. (He’d follow it up with a bad game at Colorado.) 

Still, if Cain continues to be stingy against the Padres, the wins will eventually come. While Cain hasn’t personally been beating the Padres regularly, the Giants still have been. Even with last week’s loss, they’re still 4-1 the last five times that Cain started against SD. Note that Cain has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts vs. the Padres and three or less in eight straight against them. In his last four starts against them, he had 33 K’s against just three walks. 

After going winless in April last season, the last thing Cain wanted was for it to happen again. He’s pitched very well in recent starts against the Padres and I expect him to be at his best again tonight, giving the Giants an excellent shot at the “W.” 10* 10* NL West G.O.M.

I’m playing on ARIZONA. The Rockies have gotten off to a much better start and come in as the hotter team. However, I believe this will be a good spot for the Diamondbacks.

Miley should be happy to see Colorado. He beat the Rockies a few weeks ago. In that 4/6 game, he allowed two runs through eight complete innings. That brought him to a perfect 7-0 (team is 8-1) in nine starts vs. the Rockies. He’s got an excellent 2.64 ERA in those games, too.

Granted, Morales has pitched well of late. He’s had real trouble at Chase Field over the years though, as he’s got a career 5.51 ERA here. An undrafted player, Morales has spent most of his time in the bullpen. He’s got a losing record (15-19) for his career and a 4.34 ERA. Last start notwithstanding, I don’t believe he’s in Miley’s class.

While both teams have struggled against southpaw starters to start this season, Colorado’s problems go back further. Indeed, the Rockies are a dismal 38-73 (-31.9) against left-handed starters the past few years. During that stretch, note that they’re also 59-89 (-31.6) when coming off a victory.

The Diamondbacks have won Miley’s last four starts against Colorado by a combined score of 28-8. Miley allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of those games, averaging well over six innings per outing. I look for him to get on track here, the Dbax improving to 14-6 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on NEW YORK. These teams have split the first two meetings of the series. I expect the Yankees to have the advantage in tonight’s rubber match, as the world gets a look at Masahiro Tanaka.

Tanaka certainly appears to be the real deal. He was dominant in Japan and he’s been dominant over here.

I provided his stats from Japan when playing on him a few starts back. Here’s an excerpt from that writeup: “...Tanaka was also dominant in the spring. In 21 spring innings, he recorded 26 K’s while posting a superb 2.14 ERA. In his final spring start. Nothing new for Tanaka, as he was a dominating 99-35 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over seven seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball ..."

New York manager Joe Girardi had this to say of his new star: "We knew his command was good, but it's been really, really good. He didn't walk people in spring training. We saw that. He's got a real good idea of what he's doing out there.”

To be fair, Richards has also pitched very well. However, his numbers still aren’t as good as Tanaka’s. Richards has a 2.52 ERA. Tanaka’s is 2.15. Richards has a 1.08 WHIP, Tanaka’s is 0.82, 0.733 at home. Richards has 24 Ks vs. 14 walks, Tanaka has 35 K’s vs. two walks.

While Tanaka will have the edge of starting against the Angels for the first time, Richards is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in three career outings (two starts) against New York.

While the Angels are 4-12 (-5.6) the past couple of seasons as road underdogs in the 150 to 175 range, the Yankees are 25-14 (+2.5) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. With Tanaka doing his thing, I expect the Yanks to improve on those stats tonight. 10* Main Event

I’m playing on SEATTLE. A couple of days ago, on the verge of getting swept by Houston, after having previously been swept at Miami, I said the Mariners were in a “must win” spot. Its amazing what a little positive momentum can do. They won that one for me - albeit in dramatic 9th inning fashion. Now, they followed it up with a 6-5 win in yesterday’s opener against Texas. Suddenly, this team and its fans are feeling good again. With their ace on the mound, I expect them to make it three in a row.

While he hasn’t gotten any run support of late, King Felix is still the man in the Pacific Northwest. He enters today’s game with a 3-1 record, a 2.04 ERA and a 0.821 WHIP. Averaging better than seven innings per start, he’s got an impressive 43 K’s against just four walks, in 35 1/3 innings. Dominating numbers indeed.

On the other hand, Lewis checks in with a 4.22 ERA and 1.407 WHIP. While that’s just two starts, remember, he missed all of last season with elbow and hip surgery. Now, he’s up against one of the best in the game.

Hernandez didn’t fare well against the Rangers last season. However, he pitched great at Texas recently. In seven innings on 4/16, he gave up only one run on four hits, striking out nine and walking one. However, he was up against Darvish, so got no support.

The M’s are swinging the bats better the past couple of days though and Lewis is a whole lot more hittable than Darvish. In fact, the M’s just beat Lewis on 4/14, knocking him around for eight hits and four runs in just 5 1/3 innings. In his last start at Seattle, Lewis got a “W” but gave up six runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Remember, Felix was 2-0 with a 0.53 WHIP in two home starts against the Rangers in 2012 - so, its not like he hasn’t beaten them here before. While the Rangers have been tough off a loss this season, I don’t like their chances tonight. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on Detroit and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. Both teams enter the weekend on extended “over” streaks. With both starters off a quality outing, I expect those streaks to finally come to an end this afternoon.

Sanchez has a dominant 1.47 ERA in his last three games at Minnesota, a 1.72 ERA in his six games against the Twins overall. In his last start against the Twins, he allowed one run through 6 2/3 innings.

Last time out, Sanchez gave up three runs in 6 1/3 innings. He had five K’s against just one walk and only allowed five hits. That’s a pretty solid outing. However, a closer look shows that it could have actually been a lot better - he actually had a 1-hit shutout going through the first six innings, before running into some trouble in the seventh.

Catcher Alex Avila said this of Sanchez: "He was pitching really well .. “

Sanchez’s last two starts have had scores of 3-1 and 3-2.

Admittedly, Hughes’ numbers aren’t too impressive. However, I believe that he’s been making steps in the right direction. He’s off a quality start at KC, giving up three runs in six innings. With 10 K’s against only two walks his last two starts, he’s not hurting himself.

I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 12-9 the past few seasons when the Twins had allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game. 10* blue chip

I’m playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks have certainly gotten off to a disappointing start, particularly here at Chase Field. However, they closed out their road trip with a pair of victories and I believe this will be a good spot for them to break through with a win here at home.

Collmenter’s numbers don’t look all that impressive. However, he’s now got a couple of starts under his belt (after starting season as a reliever) so should be getting into a rhythm, while also building up stamina. While the boxscore just shows that he allowed four runs in six innings, Collmenter actually tossed five shutout innings, before running into trouble in the sixth. I believe the five shutout innings were a positive sign, something he can build off here.

Its harder to make that case for Hernandez, as he got rocked last time out. All he did was allow six runs on nine hits, lasting just four innings. He’s got a 7.72 ERA in two road starts.

The Diamondbacks come in with a bit of momentum, as they won two in a row. While they played at Chicago yesterday, it was an afternoon game. On the other hand, the Phillies are off a late game at LA. I look for the Dbax to finally give the home fans a win. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on SEATTLE. It may still be only be April but this is practically a must win game for the Mariners. While maybe that’s exaggerating a little - but if they want any chance of staying competitive, they can’t afford to get swept at home by the Astros. Not after they just got swept at Miami in their last series. Those are the type of teams they need to beat.

Young didn’t fare too well last time out. However, that was on the road. While he didn’t get any support, Young was very sharp in his lone home start. He tossed six shutout innings, allowing only four hits.

On the other hand, Kosart is 0-1 with a 12.28 ERA and 2.046 WHIP in his two road starts.

Young hasn’t faced the Astros for quite a few years - which should work to his advantage. (He’s 3-0 in three starts against them, but the last was in 2008.)

The M’s got a look at Kosart last September. While they didn’t hit him well, he did issue six walks in just five innings. Note that Kosart walked four batters (and gave up two HR’s!) while recording only one out in his last start.

Houston manager Bo Porter said this of Kosart’s last outing: "It's not something that we want to relive. It makes it tough on your bullpen when the starter doesn't make it out of the first inning.”

While he’s always been mediocre (37-36, 4.16 ERA) at night, Young has always been very good in the afternoon. In fact, he’s 16-7 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 ERA in 47 daytime appearances, 46 starts. Opposing batters have hit only .199 against him in those games. I like Young’s chances of bouncing back better than Kosart’s and I like the M’s to bounce back with a much needed win. 10* personal favorite

I’m playing on DETROIT. After Tuesday’s game got rained out, the Indians grabbed yesterday’s contest. With Verlander on the mound for a game with an early start time, I expect the Tigers to salvage the series split.

Verlander is off to a very solid start to the season and he won for us last time out. Through three starts, he’s got a 2.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. In his two daytime starts, that WHIP dips to 1.14, opposing teams batting .208 in those games. 

The strong daytime stats come as no surprise. Looking back to last season and we find that Verlander had a 4.64 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at night but a 2.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in the day. There was a similar difference in 2012 too. While Verlander had a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the evening, he had spectacular 1.94 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in the day. The previous season? A 1.78 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in the day, as compared to a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at night. 

While Salazar’s strikeout/inning ratio is impressive, his ERA and WHIP are not. He’s got a 6.75 ERA and 1.93 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .351. On the road, his ERA climbs to 12.27. While he’s got good stuff, I don’t believe he’s ready to go toe-to-toe against Verlander. Not this afternoon. 

Overall, the Tigers are 79-59 in day games in recent seasons, as compared to Cleveland’s 59-59 mark. Behind another quality effort from Verlander, I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* personal favorite