I'm playing on TORONTO. With their top two pitchers on the mound, the Mariners have taken the first two games of this series. I expect the Jays to have the advantage on the mound this afternoon though and for that to lead to a much needed victory.

Morrow gets the call for the home team and he should be happy to see Seattle. Not only are the M's typically quite light-hitting, they're also Morrow's former team. Taken in the first round (5th overall) by the M's in the 2006 draft, Morrow pitched for Seattle from 2007 to 2009.

Since coming over to Toronto in 2010, Morrow has enjoyed plenty of success against his former team. In four starts vs. the M's, he's 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA. In 23.2 innings, he's recorded an impressive 32 K's, walking just six. (That's his best K/W ratio against any A.L. club.)

Morrow's overall numbers aren't that great yet. However, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts, including each of his last two.

Saunders has been an entirely different pitcher at home than he's been on the road. In three starts at Safeco Field, he's 2-0 with a superb 0.81 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. However, in three road starts, he's 0-3 with a terrible 12.51 ERA and 2.63 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .173 against him at Seattle but .429 against him on the road.

Saunders had this to say: "I don't know what's going on. I pride myself on being a good road pitcher, and haven't done that well this year."

Even with yesterday's loss, their fourth straight, the Jays are a profitable 28-24 (+8.8) the past couple of seasons, after losing three or more consecutive games. I expect them to improve on those stats here, closing out the homestand with a badly needed victory. 10*

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Rangers are 13-6 the last 19 times that they hosted the Red Sox, most recently taking two of three against the Sox here last season. They outscored Boston 15-6 in that series, winning the opener by a score of 9-1. While this season's Red Sox are certainly playing much better baseball than last season's team, I expect the Rangers to again have the advantage in Friday's all southpaw series opener.

Doubront goes for the visitors. Coincidentally, he also pitched for Boston in the opener here last season - taking the "L" in the 9-1 loss. Including that debacle, he's 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA and 2.29 WHIP in five appearances (two starts) vs. the Rangers.

True, Doubront is 3-0 this season. However, he's only got a mediocre 4.24 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He's also walked four or more batters in each of his last three starts. On the road, Doubront's ERA climbs to 4.50 and his WHIP goes all the way up to 1.70. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .156 against him at Boston but .325 against him away from Fenway.

Unlike Doubront, Holland's numbers are better than his record suggests. He's made five starts, going seven or more innings in four or them. He allowed only seven earned runs in those four games combined, never more than three. For the season, he's got a 3.38 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting only .195 against him on the season and he's got 28 K's to just nine walks. At home, his ERA dips to 2.40.

Holland is also 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five starts vs. Boston. I'm going with Texas. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on Boston and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. I'm expecting this evening's finale to be considerably lower-scoring.

Dempster is off a strong start last time out. He allowed only four hits and two runs, striking out 10. For the season, he's seen the UNDER go 3-2 while compiling a 3.30 ERA and 1.133 WHIP. Through 30 innings, he's already got 43 K's, walking 14.

A Canadian, Dempster will be making his first start at Toronto and his first start in Canada in a decade. (He's 5-0 in nine starts in Canada, all while visiting the Expos.)

Happ, who had a respectable 3.86 ERA on the season, is off back to back quality starts. Last time out, he limited the Yankees to three runs through six innings. In his previous start, he held the O's to a single unearned run through six innings.

Happ has seen the UNDER go 2-0 in his two home starts, one of those a 5-0 win against Boston. He allowed only one hit in that game. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. 10*

I'm playing on LA and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. The Angels and A's have both been profitable "over" teams so far this season and the first two games of this series have been extremely high-scoring. I expect a much different type of game this afternoon though.

Millone gets the for the A's and he's been terrific at home. In three home starts, he's 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.983 WHIP. He's averaging 6.8 innings here and had 15 K's to just two walks.

Last time out, Milone allowed only a single unearned run in 6 2/3 innings but got no run support.

After that outing Milone noted: "I have high expectations for myself, and outings like this are what I'm looking for every time, so it's good to get it."

While this season's stats are still mediocre, CJ Wilson has been coming around lately (2-0, 3.64 ERA and two "unders" in L3 starts) and he's another pitcher who enjoys playing here at Oakland. Indeed, he's 3-1 with a stellar 2.40 ERA in his last five starts here. In six career starts here, he's never allowed more than three earned runs in a game and he's allowed two or less in five of those. As a team, the A's scored three runs or less in five of those.

Angel afternoon games are only averaging 6.9 runs this season and the UNDER is 56-39-9 in their day games the past few seasons. I expect the bats to finally cool off and those stats to improve this afternoon. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Both these teams are playing well. The Padres have won four straight while the Cubs have won four of six. I expect the Cubs, 5-1 the last six times that they hosted the Padres, to have an edge on the mound in this evening's series opener.

Samardzija may not have the record to show it but he's been pitching well. Last time out, he was on the wrong side of a 1-0 loss. On the season, he's 1-4 but has a 3.03 ERA and 1.142 WHIP. In 32 2/3 innings, he already has an impressive 39 K's against only 10 walks. He's permitted just three home runs.

Richard also has a poor (0-2) record. However, in his case, its deserved. He checks in with an ugly 7.94 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. In 17 innings, he's walked 11 and struck out nine, permitting four home runs. His road ERA sits at 14.55. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 1 2/3 innings.

Neither team has hit well overall. However, a closer look at the stats reveals that Chicago is hitting a lot better at home than the Padres are on the road. The Cubs are hitting .271 here at Wrigley, averaging 4.6 runs per game here. On the other hand, the Padres are only hitting .234 away from Petco, averaging a mere 3.2 runs.

These pitchers went head-to head against each other last August. Samardzija pitched very well but Richard was even better. San Diego won 2-0. That was at Petco Park though. Tonight's game is at Wrigley and as noted, Samardzija is currently in much better form than Richard. Even with that hard-luck loss last August, Samardzija is still 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Padres.

While the Padres are 22-50 (-20.4) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range the past few seasons, the Cubs are a surprising 17-7 (+7.6) as home favorites in the same range. I say its payback time for Samardzija tonight . 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on Atlanta and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring, each producing double-digits in runs. While I certainly respect both offenses, I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.

Minor has made four starts, three of them finishing below the total. During that 4-game stretch, he has a terrific 1.80 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's allowed only one home run in 25 innings, striking out 21 against just three walks. He's supported by an Atlanta bullpen which has a combined 1.96 ERA.

Fister has been every bit as good. Through four starts, he's got a 2.00 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.23 ERA and 0.955 WHIP, not permitting a single home run over that time. Last time out, he gave up 0 earned runs in seven innings, a 4-3 game at LA.

Expect a well-pitched affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on LA. These teams have split the first two games of this series. I expect the Dodgers to have the edge in this afternoon's rubber game.

Both these starters have been very sharp to begin the season. However, I feel that Kershaw gives the Dodgers an advantage.

Kershaw is off to a particularly dominant start here at LA. In three starts here, he's 2-1 with a superb 1.27 ERA and 0.844 WHIP. That brings him to 36-18 with a 2.32 ERA in 82 starts here.

Lohse may have gotten off to a strong start on the road this season, however, he's still 57-67 with a poor 4.88 ERA on the road for his career. (His home stats are much better.)

It should be noted that Lohse dislocated his pinky last game. Granted, the injury is on his non-pitching hand. Still, it could have an effect, if only mentally.

Either way, note that Lohse is only 2-3 (teams are 3-5) in eight starts vs. the Dodgers and that he got hit hard his last time here in LA. That 5/20/2012 start saw him give up 11 hits in just 5 2/3 innings. Note that his previous start against the Dodgers happened to come against Kershaw. Lohse was on the wrong side of a 13-2 blowout, giving up eight runs in three innings.

Note that the Brewers are an ugly 6-20 the last few seasons, as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range.

During that time, the Dodgers are 58-47 (+9.9) in day games and 68-44 (+12.4) when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less. With Kershaw again getting the better of Lohse, I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on ARIZONA. These teams have both gotten off to strong starts this season and they've split the first two games of this series. The Diamondbacks should enjoy a significant edge on the mound this evening though and I expect that to provide them with an advantage.

Miley checks in with a 2-0 record and a stellar 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. His lone home start resulted in a 10-2 victory.

Miley is also 4-0 with a 3.11 ERA in six games - five starts - against the Rockies, going 2-0 with a superb 2.49 ERA in three home outings against them.

Miley is backed by an Arizona bullpen which currently has an outstanding 2.03 ERA and 0.975 WHIP here at home.

While Miley has been terrific, Francis has been brutal. He's 1-2 with a terrible 8.44 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. While he's only pitched one game on the road, it sure didn't go well. Francis lost that game by a score of 10-0, compiling a 21.56 ERA and 5.389 WHIP. (That's not a typo!)

Francis, who has a 4.42 ERA vs. Arizona, is backed by a Colorado bullpen which has a 4.74 ERA and 1.475 WHIP on the road.

Note that the Rockies are a dismal 43-61 (-19.4) against southpaw starters the past few seasons.

During that time, the Diamondbacks are 28-13 (+7) when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. All things considered, I feel this price could easily be higher. 8* personal favorite

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I successfully backed the Nationals in yesterday's opener and I'm going back to the well again here.

Zimmerman gets the call and he's been excellent. Through four starts, he's 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. In his two home starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA.

It should also be mentioned that Zimmerman is 2-0 (team is 3-1) in four starts vs the Reds, sporting a stingy 1.88 ERA. In two starts against them last season, he allowed just two runs through 14 complete innings. He permitted only eight total hits and had 12 K's to just three walks. The Nats won both games by identical 2-1 scores.

Bailey has also been solid and he did beat the Nats in his first start this season. However, that was at home, where both he and the Reds have been much better. In his lone road start, he lost by a score of 10-0, giving up seven runs in five innings. In those five innings he gave up nine hits, three of them HRs, while while walking three. That translates to a 12.60 ERA and 2.40 WHIP!

Bailey has made two starts at Washington and neither of them went well. In fact, he lost both of them, giving up eight runs in eight combined innings, allowing 14 hits and walking five. In two home starts vs. the Reds, he ha a 0.71 ERA.

The fact that the Nats have already had a look at Bailey this season while the Reds haven't seen Zimmerman since last May, could easily work in Zimmerman's favor.

Note that Bailey is backed by a Reds' bullpen which now has a 8.47 ERA and 1.941 WHIP on the road. Overall, the Reds are now an ugly 1-6 away from home.

The Nats are now 102-75 at home the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 27-18 (+6.2) mark when playing here when the line ranged between +100 and -125. I expect them to build off yesterday's big win by recording another one today. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. After getting swept by St. Louis, the Nationals should be happy to start a new series. I feel that they'll have an edge tonight and I look for them to bounce back and return to the .500 mark.

Admittedly, Gonzalez hasn't been at his best the last couple of starts. He has been much better at home than on the road though, as he's got a 1.25 WHIP here compared to a brutal 2.25 mark on the road. Opposing hitters are batting .294 against him on the road but .224 here in the nation's capital.

Lets not forget that Gonzalez won 21 games last season and that he had a 2.38 ERA in 14 home starts. A matchup against the Reds should be just what the doctor ordered.

Indeed, Gonzalez has 25 Ks in 19 innings vs. the Reds, compiling a spectacular 0.95 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in three starts. He tossed seven shutout innings in his last home start vs. Cincinnati, striking out seven (walking none) while allowing a mere two hits.

While the Reds have been great at home, they're only 1-5 on the road.

Arroyo is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA on the road. He's supported by a Reds' bullpen which has a 8.40 ERA and 1.933 WHIP on the road. In his lone start here last season, he gave up up four runs, on 11 hits, in just five innings.

I expect Gonzalez to get the better of Arroyo here, as the Nats bounce back and the Reds' road woes continue for another day. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Twins took yesterday's game and have won three straight. I expect their winning streak to come to an end this afternoon though.

Diamond goes for the Twins and he got roughed up (8.31 ERA, 1.848 WHIP) in his lone start. That 4/13 outing saw him give up eight hits and four runs, in only 4 1/3 innings.

Diamond's last two starts vs. the Sox saw him allowed 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. The Twins would end up giving up nine runs in each of those games.

Floyd checks in at 0-3. However, his 3.00 home ERA, to go along with a stellar 0.833 WHIP, show that he was solid in his lone start here at Chicago. That game saw him allow two earned runs through six innings, giving up only four hits and one walk, striking out five.

While he doesn't have great career stats vs. the Twins, Floyd has been tough (1.38 ERA) his last two starts against them. He won both those games, giving up only two earned runs through 13 complete innings.

Both bullpens have had success thus far but the Sox combined 1.63 ERA (1.59 at home) and 0.987 WHIP is superior to what the Twins bring to the table

The Twins are only 11-15 (-2.1) the past couple of seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games. During that stretch, they're a dismal 46-77 (-22.2) when playing in the afternoon. Over the same period, the Sox are 64-53 (+3.6) in their day games.

Speaking of day games, Floyd has been much in his career during the afternoon, as his daytime ERA is nearly a full run lower than his ERA under the lights. He's got a 29-21 afternoon record. I expect him to get the better of Diamond as the Sox bounce back with a much needed "W." *9 personal favorite

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Angels put it all together yesterday, earning an 8-1 victory in the series opener. I expect them to have the edge again this afternoon.

LA is now playing with confidence at home, having won three straight here. The Angels have scored 17 runs during that stretch. While Pujols has struggled on the road, he's now hitting better than .400 here at home. Note that after last night's 3 for 5 performance, he's batting a remarkable .458 in 21 regular season games against the Tigers.

While not "spectacular," Garrett Richards has been "solid." His 4.22 ERA is only mediocre but a 0.93% WHIP shows he's now allowing many baserunners.

Although they do have a potent lineup, Richards should be happy to see the Tigers. Indeed, he's got a 2.53 ERA in five games against Detroit. While four of those came out of the bullpen, his lone start vs. the Tigers resulted in a 13-0 victory. Richards allowed a mere three hits in seven shutout innings.

On the other hand, Porcello has a 5.80 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Angels. In his only start here at LA, he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Arguably Detroit's weakest starter, Porcello has a 6.10 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in two starts this season. He hasn't made a start since 4/10, due to having worked out of the bullpen, so may be a little out of rhythm here.

While the Tigers are 94-92 the last 2+ seasons away from Detroit, the Angels are 94-75 at home. Despite those numbers, we're getting a line in the "pick'em range." I feel that's providing plenty of value and I look for the Angels to keep rolling for at least another day. 10* main event

I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Jays yesterday and I feel that this will be another good spot for them to earn a victory.

While the Jays are off a momentum-building win right here at Toronto, the Yankees are off a deflating 12-inning loss vs. Arizona.

Morrow has made three starts, pitching well in two of them. Last time out, pitching at KC, he allowed two runs through six innings. In his lone home start, he allowed only one run through six innings, recording eight K's along the way.

Brandon Morrow has also enjoyed plenty of success against the Yankees, going 5-2 against them over his career. In his last two starts against the Yankees, both of which were here at Toronto, he didn't allow a single run through 15 combined innings. The Jays won those games by scores of 3-0 and 6-0.

Admittedly, ageless Andy Pettitte has pitched well in his two starts. However, he missed his last start due to back spasms and the Yankees are 0-2 his last two starts at Toronto.

While Pettitte may not have to deal with Bautista, the Yankees remain without a lot more regulars than that. All things considered, I feel getting the Jays at this price is a bargain. 10* best bet

I'm playing on TORONTO. After taking the first game of this series, the Jays have dropped each of the last two. A narrow 4-3 (9th inning) loss on Tuesday was followed by a 7-0 shutout loss yesterday. I expect them to bounce back and salvage the series split this evening and believe that the current price is more than fair.

Fans of the Jays breathed a collective sigh of relief when Dickey pitched last. After really struggling in his first two starts, the reigning NL CY Young winner responded with a very strong effort, limiting the Royals to a single run through 6 1/3 innings.

With the "monkey off his back" and now back in the groove, I expect Dickey to follow it up with another solid performance here.

Dickey was quoted saying: "My posture was a little better for my mechanics, and that's something I feel I can build on. I still wasn't as sharp as I can be. I'm not all the way there, but I'm pretty close."

KC Manager Ned Yost was more flattering. He said this of Dickey: "We never could muster a consistent attack against Dickey. His knuckler was really dancing. We never could get any consistent momentum."

While Dickey improved significantly last time out, Sale has been going the other way. He pitched very well in winning his first start and was also solid in his second one. (Both those came at home.) However, last time out, making his first road start, he got rocked. Indeed, he lasted only 4 1/3 innings, giving up eight runs on eight hits (2 HRs) and two walks. (That translates to a 16.63 ERA and 2.309 WHIP.)

While its rarely wise to read too much into a single start, it is worth noting that Sale has been much better at home than on the road his entire career. We saw that again last season when he had a dominant 2.30 ERA at home but a much higher (although still solid) 3.77 mark on the road. Dating back to last July, Sale is 2-6 with a 6.32 ERA on the road.

The Jays are 12-7 (+7) the past 2+ seasons off a shutout loss. While they may well still be without Bautista, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Mariners didn't fare too well over their last two games, as they were pounded by the lowly Astros. Tonight, however, King Felix is on the mound. That should give the M's a significant advantage and I expect them to bounce back with a big win.

Hernandez (2.57 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) dominated the Rangers last season. In two 2012 starts against Texas, he allowed only a single run through 17 innings, striking out 19 and walking only two. The M's won those two games by a combined score of 13-1!

While last season's victories both came against Darvish, Hernandez is up against Justin Grimm tonight.

Grimm's numbers were pretty grim last season. Indeed, he had an awful 9.00 ERA in five games - two starts. He's only here due to the injury to Matt Harrison, otherwise he'd be at Triple-A Round Rock.

Last season, opposing batters hit .367 against Grimm.

Ron Washington said this of Grimm: "I just expect him to come and keep us in the ballgame. He's a strike-thrower, and he understands how to use those strikes. It doesn't have to be a no-hitter, a perfect game, none of that. Just keep us around."

"Just keeping us around" might work against other members of the Seattle stuff - but isn't likely to be enough against Hernandez. 9* AL West GOM

I'm playing on the Angels and A's to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. I expect tonight's finale to have a much different feel.

Vargas sports an excellent 1.59 ERA, after allowing only a single earned run in his first start as an Angel.

A California native, Vargas has limited the A's to two runs or less in his six of his last seven starts against them. During that stretch, he's 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA. Five of those seven starts produced eight or fewer combined runs.

Griffin wasn't quite as good as Vargas in his first start but he still pitched well. Through six complete innings, he allowed two runs.

Griffin was also dominant in his lone lone start vs. the Angels. That came last September, here at LA and saw him toss eight shutout innings, en route to a 4-1 victory.

Despite the first two games of this series both topping the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 14-6-2 when the A's have visited here the past few seasons. I expect things to return to "normal" tonight. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Angels badly need a victory. With Blanton up against his former team, I expect them to get it.

While Blanton wasn't exactly sharp in his Angels' debut, he'll have the advantage of facing the A's for the first time.

Note that the six current Oakland players who have seen Blanton before are a combined 5 for 36 (.139). That includes Coco Crisp going an ugly 2 for 15.

While Blanton had a tough matchup (at Cincinnati) in his first start, Milone had the advantage of facing Seattle in his first start. I expect him to have more trouble against a desperate and very capable LA lineup.

Note that Milone had a 2.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home last season, holding opposing hitters to a .240 batting average. However, on the road, he had a poor 4.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .316 against him.

Milone got rocked the last time that the faced the Angels, giving up five runs on 10 hits, while lasting only three innings.

The Angels are 31-19 (+4.8) the last 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect them to bounce back with a much needed victory tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Toronto and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. You might be surprised to learn that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 since 2011 when the Jays have played here at Detroit. That is indeed the case though. In fact, going back to the start of the 2010 season, the UNDER is 8-1when the Tigers were a host in this series. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this afternoon.

Both these starters were quite sharp in their season opener and I respect both of them.

Morrow checks in with a 1.50 ERA after allowing a single run through six complete innings, striking out eight along the way. He didn't factor in the decision of a 3-2 loss.

The same was true of Sanchez. He also failed to factor in the decision of a 3-2 loss. It certainly wasn't his fault though as he allowed a mere two hits through five shutout innings.

Sanchez has seen each of his last two starts vs. the Jays dip below the total, those games finishing with scores of 3-2 and 5-1. I expect more of the same here with the UNDER improving to 34-21-3 the past few seasons when the Jays played a road game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. We haven't been able to play Roy Halladay at home in this price range too often over the years. In fact, he's rarely available this "cheaply" at any venue. Yet, because he got rocked in his first outing, we're able to do so. I believe that's an over-reaction and that the current line is providing us with excellent value.

True, Halladay is no "spring chicken." However, although he may be growing a little long in the tooth, he's still an extremely competitive person. His Cy Young days are likely a thing of the past but I'm not ready to believe that he's a write-off yet either. After getting rocked in his first start, with his team badly needing a victory and now facing a team which he has long dominated - I expect the ultra-competitive Halladay to bring his A-Game.

While he certainly didn't fare too well overall, it should be noted that Halladay had nine K's in 3 1/3 innings in his first start. To me, that shows that he's still capable of blowing hitters away.

For his career, Halladay is 9-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.094 WHIP vs. the Mets. That includes a 9-1 record and 2.36 ERA his last 11 against them. In four starts vs. the Mets since the start of the 2011 season, Halladay has allowed a combined three earned runs in 29 innings. That translates to a 0.93 ERA. During that stretch, he's struck out 25 Mets while walking only four.

After his rough first outing, Halladay commented: "I'd rather get beat 20-0 and pitch eight innings than pitch 3 1-3. That's got to change."

Admittedly, Harvey has good stuff and he did pitch well in his opening start. However, that was against light-hitting San Diego. Now, he'll be facing a much tougher Philadelphia lineup, one which banged out 15 hits yesterday.

While Harvey has had some success in his two starts against the Phillies, note that this is the first time that he'll face a team for the third time in his career. In other words, the Phillies are more familiar with him than any other team is.

While the Mets were a respectable 81-81 on the road the past couple of seasons, the Phillies are 94-74 at home, during the same period. I expect Halladay to bounce back with a much better performance, en route to leading his team to a much-needed win. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on Houston and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both topped the total. I expect a lower-scoring affair this afternoon.

This O/U line was originally 7.5 but climbed to eight. I feel thats providing us with excellent value.

Both starters check in with a 0-1 record. However, neither can be blamed, as both pitched well. Both just happened to be matched up against another starter who dominated.

Anderson, who will have the advantage of pitching against Houston for the first time, was sharp in his first outing, giving up only two runs on four hits, through seven innings. However, he lost 2-0 against Felix Hernandez and the Mariners.

Meanwhile, Harrell gave up just one run through six innings but got no run support as he was up against Darvish, who nearly threw a perfect game.

Manager Bo Porter said this of Harrell: "Lucas was outstanding. Even the time he got into jams, he was able to make pitches to make the double play to get out of them."

Harrell faced Oakland once, back in 2010 when he was with Chicago. He gave up only one run in six innings.

The A's have scored some runs in recent days but are still not one of the more potent lineups in the American League. The Astros, who have been striking out a record pace, have hit .183 as a team the last four games. I expect a well-pitched affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays' bats finally came to life yesterday. With that first win under their belts and with their new "ace" on the mound, I expect the Jays to follow it up with another win today. (Some are considering Dickey to be the team ace but I prefer Johnson.)

The manager of my beach-front condo on Indian Shores Beach (near Dunedin, spring training home of the Jays) happened to manage the place that Johnson stayed in too. She looked after his dog while he was in Orlando and also was able to hook us up to get Johnson to autograph a ball for my son. That's not why I'm backing him here though.

Johnson's been a star for years but hasn't received much attention, due to playing for the Marlins. Now he's got a quality team to support him. The Jays are expecting big things from him and so am I.

Johnson had more wins (5) in spring training than any other pitcher in baseball. He finished with a stellar 2.70 ERA and a superb 0.75 WHIP. In 20 innings, he had 23 Ks vs. only three walks.

Doubront had a respectable 3.00 ERA in the spring. However, his 1.44 WHIP was nothing to write home about.

Johnson made one start against Boston last year and he was dominant. In seven innings, he allowed only four hits and one run, striking out seven and walking one. He got the better of Beckett and earned a 4-1 victory. (His previous start against the Sox came back in 2006 and he also delivered a quality start in that one.)

On the other hand, the Jays are very familiar with Doubront and they rocked him each of the last two times they saw him. Doubront was 0-2 in those games, giving up 17 hits (4 HRs) in 10 innings. He gave up 12 runs, 10 of them earned, losing 7-5 and 9-6.

The Sox are just 76-93 (-42.7) off a loss the past couple of seasons and they were only 4-10 (-3.6) as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range, during that time. Going back further finds them at 32-63 (-11.5) their last 95 in that role.

All things considered, while the price is a little steep, I believe its more than fair. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on Seattle and Oakland to finish OVER the total. With King Felix on the mound, these teams saw last night's opener produce only two runs. Seattle won 2-0. I'm expecting to see considerably more runs in tonight's rematch.

Parker was 0-2 with an ugly 7.45 ERA in five spring starts. While he had a solid season overall, Parker had a poor 5.40 ERA in two starts against Seattle last season.

Iwakuma is capable but he's not exactly a Cy Young candidate. After having to contend with Hernandez yesterday, the A's should be happy to see him. Iwakuma was 0-2 with a high 6.14 ERA in two starts vs. Oakland last season.

With the M's listed as small-mid sized underdogs, note that the OVER is 22-14-3 the past couple of seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range.

The A's saw the OVER go 18-11-1 after a shutout loss the last couple of seasons.

I look for the bats to come to life and believe that this number will prove to be a little low. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on DETROIT. After losing with the Tigers a couple of times, some will call me stubborn (or worse) for backing them again. While I do always try and learn, I don't let my previous results, win or lose, effect my judgement the next day. In this case, I'm willing to give the Tigers one final try.

While Cain is off an excellent start and is obvious a top tier pitcher, Scherzer is in even better form. He's got a 0.60 ERA his last three starts, striking out 21 in 15 innings. For the season, he was 8-3 here (Tigers were 11-4) recording a commanding 116 K's (and only 24 walks!) in 87 2/3 innings.

While I don't normally pay much attention to a team's record on a given day of the week, the Tigers 57-26 (+28.3!) record on Sundays the past few seasons is pretty impressive. That includes a 20-9 (+7.6) mark this year. (Giants were 13-15, by comparison)

The Tigers were 8-4 (+2.8) off three straight losses this season. Coming back to win the series is obviously going to be tough but I do expect the Tigers to at least rise to the occasion and avoid getting swept. *8

I'm playing on DETROIT. While the Giants are certainly rolling these days, there's much to like about Detroit here, in my opinion. The Tigers are back home, where they're a much better team. They're facing a right-handed starter, albeit a good one, which means that they'll be able to put their best hitting lineup out there. The pitchers won't have to hit, which will take away what has been a big advantage for the Giants in these playoffs.

Sanchez has a 1.37 ERA and 1.068 WHIP his last three starts. Last time out, he blanked the Yankees through seven complete innings, giving up just three hits.

Sanchez is also 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.881 WHIP in five starts against the Giants.

I expect the Tigers to bounce back, improving to 8-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less. *9 Main Event

I'm playing on DETROIT. As you surely saw or heard, the Giants won in convincing fashion yesterday. Beating Verlander was obviously huge for SF. I'm not counting the Tigers out yet. Not by a long-shot. I liked the defense I saw from Detroit late last night. Down and out, the Tigers were still making great plays. I expect them to have an edge on the mound here and I look for them to bounce back and even the series.

With a 3..29 ERA and 1.206 WIP, Fister could easily be better than 10-10. After all, Bumgarner has a worse ERA (3.66) yet is 16-13. I'm more interested in the current form of these guys than their overall season W/L records though.

While he didn't get the win in either of his lasts two starts, Fister is off back to back gems, each of them Detroit victories. Last time out, he tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings at Yankee Stadium. In his previous start, Fister allowed two runs through seven innings vs. Oakland. Note that he didn't allow a home run in either of those games.

On the other hand, Bumgarner has really struggled of late. He got rocked for six runs in just 3 2/3 innings last time out. He's now 0-3 with an awful 10.50 ERA and 1.917 WHIP his last three starts. He gave up a minimum of four earned runs in all three of those starts and failed to go five innings in any of them. Over that 12 inning stretch, he gave up 15 runs (14 earned) and allowed five home runs.

While Fister will have the advantage of starting against the Giants for the first time, the Tigers got to face Bumgarner last July. To his credit, Bumgarner did pitch well in that 7/1/2011 game. However, as noted, he's currently in poor form - and the Tigers having some familiarity with him should help.

While they're hot right now, SF hasn't been a team that has reeled off too many extended winning streaks this year. Even with the victory last time, the Giants are still only 11-16 (-7.8) after having won three or more consecutive games. Conversely, the Tigers are 43-32 off a loss.

You'll likely hear about this during the game ... Fister, who now has a superb 1.75 ERA in four playoff starts, actually grew up in California and was a Giants' fan and dreamed of pitching a World Series game here. He was quoted as saying: "Growing up, don't tell anybody, I was a Giants fan, and being able to come to a couple games when I was little, it's always been a dream and a goal for me, and now it's happening. It's definitely special being able to come into the ballpark and play in a World Series is something that obviously is a moment that will never be forgotten."

Look for Fister's dream to come true and for the Tigers to come away with the win. *10

I'm playing on the Under in Game 1. I played on the Under in Game 1 of last year's World Series (3-2 final) and I'm expecting another low-scoring affair out of the gate here. Not much needs to be said about Verlander. If he's not the very best in the game, he's right there. The Tigers' ace has sure stepped up his game of late too, going 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 0.617 WHIP his last three starts, all three of them staying below the total. For the season, he's 20-8 with a 2.47 ERA. The Under is 23-11-2 in Verlander's 36 starts, 11-6-2 on the road. Obviously, Zito isn't in Verlander's class. However, he's full of confidence after a dominating 7 2/3 shutout innings at St. Louis on 10/19. He's only faced the Tigers once the past few seasons (last July) and he tossed six shutout innings. While the number may seem low, note that the UNDER is 15-4-2 when the Tigers have played a game with an O/U line of 7 or less (many of those when Verlander pitched) including a profitable 9-2-2 on the road. The Tigers saw the UNDER go 12-6 against NL teams this season and I look for another pitcher's duel tonight. *9 (Note that I recommend laying the extra juice and playing at 7, if available.)

I'm playing on St. Louis and SF to finish UNDER the total. Some shops have moved from 6.5 to 7 here. While we do have to lay a little bit of extra juice to play at seven, I feel that's where the value is.

These pitchers squared off against each other earlier in the series. The O/U line was 6.5 and the game produced eight runs. Vogelsong was very sharp but Carpenter was not. Carpenter is a proven winner though and he's ultra competitive. I expect him to bounce back with a much improved effort.

Even with the sup-par effort on 10/15, Carpenter still has a super 2.61 ERA on the road, a span of four starts. In his previous playoff start, he blanked Washington for 5 2/3 innings. He's got a 1.86 ERA overall.

Note that Carpenter was money when pitched two clinchers last October and won both. When asked of his shaky last outing, he was quoted as saying: "...I had some nice work in between that start and this start, I feel good and I'm looking forward to getting back out there.''

Meanwhile, Vogelsong now has an outstanding 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his last three starts. In 16 home starts, he's got a 2.75 ERA and 1.174 WHIP, the UNDER going 10-5-1.

After some high-scoring games early in the series, two of the last three finished with five or fewer runs. I look for another well-pitched affair. *10

I'm playing on St. Louis and SF to finish UNDER the total. This is the highest O/U line that we've seen in this series. I believe it will prove to be too high.

Its true that both these pitchers struggled last time out. However, both have proven to be capable and I expect to see a bounce-back from each of them.

Lynn struggled in his road playoff start. He was 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA (1.233 WHIP) in 12 home starts in the regular season though and is anxious for a much better effort.

"I'm as strong as I've ever been all year, and the playoff start was good to get,'' Lynn said. "Wish I could have done better the first one, but I've got a lot to learn from that one.''

While Zito struggled last time out, note that he won his final seven regular-season starts.

Bruce Bochy said this of the veteran southpaw: "You don't win as many games as he's won this year if you aren't throwing the ball well. He's earned this. And we have all the confidence in Barry tomorrow.''

Prior to yesterday's breakout game, the Cards were only batting .198 in the NLCS. Meanwhile, the Giants have managed only four runs in two games here. Posey is hitting 2 for 14 in the series while Pence is 2 for 15.

As Bruce Bochy noted: "They've been shutting us down."

Look for the final score to prove lower than most will be expecting. *10

I'm playing on St. Louis and SF to finish UNDER the total. Each team enters on an 'over' streak. The Cards have seen three straight games top the total, dating back to the final game in the Washington series. Meanwhile, the Giants have seen four straight games finish above the number, dating back to their series in Cincinnati. I expect that t change this afternoon and pitching to steal the spotlight.

Lohse was 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA at home this season. The UNDER was 10-6 in his 16 starts here. He's only made one start against the Giants the past few years. In that 4/10/11 game, he allowed just one run and only five hits, through eight complete innings. He didn't walk a single batter either.

At 17-6 with a 2.90 ERA and having started the All Star game, Cain is clearly one of the best in the game. Admittedly, he didn't pitch well his last time here. However, he's had previous success against the Cards and I expect him to pitch well this afternoon. Note that he was 7-0 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in day games this season.

I expect a pitcher's duel and feel the final score has a better chance of finishing with less than seven runs than it does of finishing with more than seven. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on SF and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday, I noted that Detroit's visits to New York were often high-scoring. The opposite has often been true of the Cardinals' recent visits to San Francisco, however. Since the start of the 2010 season, the UNDER is 6-2 when the Cards have played here. Five of those eight games finished with five or fewer runs. I expect Game 1 to also result in a low-scoring affair.

Admittedly, Bumgarner wasn't too sharp vs. the Reds in the opening round. He was 10-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.051 WHIP at home this season though and I expect him to be much better here.

Lance Lynn figures to be happy this is an evening game. He had a 4.88 ERA in 15 daytime appearances this season but a stellar 2.96 mark at night. In his last road start, he allowed one run through seven complete innings. With a 17-5 record on the season, I expect him to be ready.

The way these playoffs have been, this series may eventually see some fireworks. I just don't think it'll be tonight. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. While the Giants did get stuck in limbo having to wait to see where they were going to play, eventually being forced to re-fuel when learning they were coming home, I like how the schedule sets up for them. Both teams are off an emotional series.



The Cards figure to be exhuasted. Daniel Descalso acknowledged as much. He was quoted saying: "It was a long night for us. It's nice we had this day off to kind of regroup and get a little rest. But it's hard not to be excited after a game like last night, the way that game ended, and to get on a plane and fly all the way across country. We're still recovering.''



Lynn has a great record but his 3.92 road ERA doesn't compare favorably to Bumgarner's 2.61 mark at home.



The Giants were 13-7 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *9

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Yankees are down 1-0 and now they're without their leader, Derek Jeter. With Kuroda on the mound, I expect them to dig deep and to respond with a victory this afternoon.

While he's being forced to pitch on short rest, Kuroda is much tougher at home. He limited the Orioles to two runs through 8 1/3 innings last time out. Prior to that, he held Boston to two runs through seven innings.

For the season. Kuroda was 5-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road. However, he was 11-6 with a stellar 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home. Opposing batters hit only .219 here, as compared to .292 on the road.

Given today's early starting time, it should also be noted that Kuroda is much better when pitching during the afternoon. Indeed, in eight daytime starts, he's got a 1.99 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Pitching out of the shadows doesn't hurt.

Many are counting the Yanks out. While it won't be easy, I'm not writing them off yet. This is a team that has dealt with adversity all year and which has scratched and clawed its way here.

That said, knowing they're up against Verlander (at Detroit) next game, this is essentially a "must win" for New York.

As Girardi noted: "We have to find a way to try to get it done," Girardi said. "I think some people left us for dead when Mo went down and here we are in the ALCS."

Backs to the wall, I look for them to "get it done." *8

I'm playing on NY and Detroit to finish OVER the total. This number has fallen since it came out. As I write this, some 7.5s are starting to pop up. That's the line I'm playing on and recommending. However, if unavailable, I also think Over 8 at "plus money" offers solid value.

With all due respect to the pitchers, lets not forget that both these clubs can really hit. The Yankees average 4.9 runs per game. Led by the Triple Crown Winner and the "Home Run King" from the All Star game, the Tigers manage 4.4. Add that up and you're looking at 9.3 runs. For the season, Yankee home games are averaging 8.9 runs.

Pettitte was solid but not spectacular in his last start. He gave up three runs in seven innings. He hasn't faced the Tigers since 2008, getting rocked the last time he did face them.

Fister had a 6.52 ERA in two division series games against New York last year, although did get a win by allowing one run in five innings here in Game 5. He allowed only two runs against the Yankees in August but gave up eight hits in six innings - so, was far from "unhittable."

The OVER is 9-3 the last 12 times that the Yankees hosted the Tigers. A closer look reveals that ELEVEN of those 12 games produced at least eight runs. Those games had pitchers like Verlander and Sabathia going too. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. *9 Best Bet

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Down to one final elimination game, I feel that playing at home will serve he Nationals well. I like the fact that they're coming off a momentum-building walk-off home run AND I really like the fact the Gio Gonzalez will be on the mound.



Longtime regulars will recall that I've been successfully picking spots to back Gonzalez since long before he ever even came to Washington. With a 21 wins, 200+ Ks and a 2.89 ERA, he's now recognized among the best in the game. Yet, at least in this case, we're still able to get him at a very reasonable price.



Its true that Gonzalez battled real control problems in Game 1. That's obviously not something you want out of your starting pitcher. However, when he's had control problems during the season, its been on the road. When he returns home, his control tends to return with him.



After allowing nine combined walks (five and four) in back to back road starts in September, Gonzalez returned home and issued just one free pass in seven innings, easily beating Milwaukee. Previously, after serving up five walks on the road on 7/29, Gonzalez returned home and had 10 Ks with 0 walks in his next start.



In 14 home starts this season, Gonzalez had nine wins and a superb 2.38 ERA and 1.00 ERA. Opposing batters hit only .202. In 90 innings here, he had 92 Ks against only 24 walks. He gave up just three home runs here.



Gonzalez's "love of home cooking" is nothing new. In 2011, he had 10 wins and a 2.70 ERA at home, opposing hitters batting .220. In 2010, he was 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA at home, opposing hitters batting only .199.



While he's certainly a capable pitcher, like Gonzalez, Wainwright was much better at home this season. In 17 home starts, he was 10-6 with a 3.73 ERA. However, in 15 road starts, he was just 4-7 with a 4.20 ERA.



With homefield and momentum in their corner, I look for the Nats to get it done. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on NEW YORK. With all those extra inning victories, Baltimore has obviously been a very resilient team all season. Last night's loss figures to be devastating though. Winning in the bottom of the 9th. The Yankees pinch-hitting for A-Rod, seemingly beaten. Then, still fighting, only to lose in extras. Seeing that extra-inning streak come to an end has to feel like "the magic is over." With the momentum now squarely on their side, I expect the Yankees to "smell the blood" in the water and for them to come out and take care of business.
I won't claim that Hughes is an elite pitcher, as home runs were an issue this season. He did win 16 ball games this season though and he had 165 K's to just 46 walks, while recording a 1.26 WHIP.
Hughes was also at his best at home. In fact, in 16 starts here he was 11-4 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, opposing batters hitting only 1.19 against him. That's much better than his 4.76 ERA and .279 average against when on the road.
With this being an evening game, it should also be noted that Hughes' night-time ERA (3.59) is nearly two runs better than his daytime ERA of 5.54. He beat the O's the last time he faced them, allowing three runs (2 earned) through six complete innings.
Saunders came through with a big start for Baltimore last time out. I can understand the decision to go with Saunders. based on his last start - but if I were Baltimore, I still might have gone with Tillman here. Keep in mind that he was 9-13 during the season though and he's got a 5.82 career ERA against the Yankees.
Remember, prior to the loss against Chen a couple of games ago, the Yanks were 27-19 against southpaw starters, averaging 5.4 runs per game. I expect their bats to come to life and for them to close things out in convincing fashion. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Washington and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. After a low-scoring opener, the last two games of this series have both finished above the total. Monday's game did so easily. Yesterday's did so barely. I expect a lower-scoring affair Thursday and feel that an O/U line of 8, the highest of the series thus far, is generously high.
Lohse got the win (against Medlen) in the "Wildcard Rd," allowing six hits and two runs in 5 2-3 innings. He was 16-3 on the season. While he did allow four runs in a 9/29 start against the Nats, he also had nine Ks vs. just one walk. So, he was having no trouble getting Washington hitters out.

Detwiler struggled at St. Louis in his final regular season start. However, he should be happy to be pitching in an early home game. Not only does he have a stellar 2.84 ERA in eight daytime appearances, he's also got an excellent 2.59 ERA at home, much better than his 4.38 mark on the road. In his last start here, Detwiler allowed just three hits and one run, through six innings. A closer look reveals that three of his last four starts here have finished below the total and that he's allowed three earned runs or less in nine straight home starts. Look for a well-pitched affair. *9

I'm playing on the Giants and Reds to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total. (Note that the first game finished with only seven runs but that the total was 6.5.)

With a recent no-hitter under his belt, Bailey enters today's game in excellent form.

Ditto for Vogelsong. After a tough late summer stretch, he's picked up with a 2-0 with a superb 0.53 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his last three starts.

Neither Bailey or Vogelsong have great career numbers against today's opponent. However, both pitched well last time that they matched up against the hitters they'll see today.

Vogelsong's last start vs. the Reds saw him allow only two runs through seven complete innings. He gave up just three hits and walked a single batter, striking out five.

Bailey has only started against the Giants once the past two seasons. He allowed just two earned runs through 6 1/3 innings in that 4/26/12 start.

Vogelsong has the support of a solid (3.61 ERA) SF bullpen. Bailey has the support of a dominant (2.28 ERA at home) Cincy bullpen.

Even with the last two games, the Reds have still seen the UNDER go 22-10 their last 32 games played in the month of October. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go 70-44-5 when off a shutout victory. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting one again. *10

I'm playing on Atlanta and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. Everyone knows about Medlen's amazing winning streak. He's actually got some pretty good Under stats too. Not surprising, given his overall numbers.

At 9-0, Medlen has an amazing 0.97 ERA and 0.801 WHIP. The UNDER is 8-3-1 in his 12 starts this season.

While one of his losses did come against the Braves, Lohse was 16-3 with a stellar 2.86 ERA. His loss vs. Atlanta came early in the year and he's lost only once since June 15th. And that only came by a score of 3-2.

On opening night, with no other games on the major league schedule, Lohse dominated on national television, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. With a win here, if he moves to 17-3, Lohse will have the best winning percentage for a pitcher with that many wins, in St. Louis Cardinals' history.

While these teams have played some high-scoring games against each other this season, they've both been involved in low-scoring games since the calendar flipped to October. Both teams enter this afternoon's game off three straight games which finished below the total. Both are off a shutout victory in their final game. Playoffs/Wildcard games are a different animal than the regular season; I expect the recent trends to continue and expect to see a much lower-scoring game than we saw during the "regular" season.

I'm personally playing this one at 7, instead of 6.5. Under 7 is my play. Seven is a very common final score and I'd prefer to push if that final score does happen to come up. However, for those so inclined or for those unable to get a seven, I also feel that getting "plus money" at Under 6.5 is offering excellent value. You never know in October, it could turn out to be the opposite, but I see a 2-1 or a 3-2 type of final. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I feel the Indians have more to play for and that they'll want this game more. I also expect them to have an edge on the mound.

Cleveland's interim manager Sandy Alomar Jr would love to close out the season with a 2-game "winning streak" to potentially help improve his chances of returning next season. (Both Alomar and Terry Francona interview for the job next week.)

Like Alomar, Huff is trying to make a good lasting impression. He wants to be back in the starter's rotation next season. He's also off back to back solid outings, getting the win in each. Last time out, he allowed three runs in six inning, striking out five without walking a batter. n his previous start, he allowed only one run and just three hits, en route to earning a 15-4 victory. In seven appearances, five starts, he's got a 2.86 ERA and 1.091 WHIP.

Floyd should also be motivated to pitch well as he'd like to finish with a winning record. However, with a 4.47 ERA and 1.391 WHIP, he's been very mediocre. He got a win last time out. However, he also walked five batters in five innings. That's more walks than Huff (who has a 17/3 K/W ratio) has allowed all season.

While the Sox haven't faced Huff this season (he pitched a quality start but lost in his lone start against them in 2011) the Indians pounded Floyd the only time that they saw him. They recorded 10 hits and scored five runs against him, in just five innings.

Having been so close but coming up short, the Sox figure to be deflated. Alomar Jr. gets his win and the fans go home happy. *9

I'm playing on TEXAS. Give the A's credit for a great season and for putting themselves in position to win the division. A victory this afternoon and they become just the fifth team to win a division or pennant after trailing by more than 12 games. I don't expect the Rangers to let it happen.

"No one said it was going to be easy," said manager Ron Washington, whose team had held sole possession of the division lead since April 9.
"We started out to play 162 games and now - tomorrow - it's 162. And we'll see what happens. We take it no different than we have been approaching it. We just haven't put our game together yet. Tomorrow we have to put it together.

Griffin is off a strong start. That was against light-hitting Seattle though. In his previous two starts, he allowed four runs in 4 1/3 innings, and before that, he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Overall, he's got an awful 6.32 ERA and 1.723 WHIP his last three starts. He was very sharp against the Rangers back in June. However, as evidenced by the recent stats, he's not currently in nearly as good form. Also, the Rangers will now be seeing him for the second time.

Dempster's overall numbers aren't dominant but if you take away his games against the Angels, he's been excellent. In fact, not counting games at LA, he's won six consecutive outings while posting a 2.04 ERA.

The Rangers are 45-22 (+16) off a loss. The cream rises to the top and they finish as division champs. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Astros had the upper hand in the first matchup between 100-loss teams over the last 50 years. They've won the first two games of this series and three straight overall. They swept the Cubs when they first came into the league 51 years ago. Now playing their final game in the National League (they move to the AL next year) the Astros will look to repeat history with another sweep. I expect Travis Wood and the Cubs to have something to say about that.



Wood returned from the All Star Break and promptly went 0-8 in his first nine games back. However, he's put it together "down the stretch," going 2-2 with a solid 3.34 ERA in six September starts. In his last start at Wrigley, Wood struck out seven Cardinals in five innings, allowing two runs. In his previous start here, he struck out nine Pirates in 5 2/3 innings, walking just one.



Wood should be happy to see Houston. In eight career starts against the Astros, he's 3-2 (team is 5-3) with a stellar 1.95 ERA and 0.927 WHIP. That includes a 2-1 record with a 1.29 ERA this season. In his two most recent starts against Houston, Wood has allowed just a single run through 14 2/3 innings.



Admittedly, Gonzalez has pitched better on the road than at home - however, three road starts isn't much to go on. Note that he's got a 6.35 ERA his last three starts. More importantly, he's been in the league since 2003 and has a 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .299 against him during that time.



Even with the recent victories, the Astros are a brutal 20-60 on the road. By comparison, the Cubs' 37-43 home record actually looks pretty good.



The Astros would obviously like the sweep. However, they've already won the series. I look for the Cubs to want this one a little more, as they'd really like to reward the Wrigley faithful with a last win. With Wood continuing his success in this series, I look for them to do just that. *10

I'm playing on MIAMI. Josh Johnson has been pitching very well for the Marlins, having perhaps his best month of the season. In 34 September innings, he's recorded 29 K's while compiling a stellar 2.91 ERA. Unfortunately for Johnson, he's only 1-3 in those games, as the Marlins have provided him with no run support. In his final start of the season, I expect the Marlins to rally around their ace, finally providing him with some much needed run support.



While this will go down as Johnson's worst season, he's still got an excellent 2.96 ERA (1.16 WHIP) in 17 home starts. He's only allowed five home runs in that entire stretch, striking out 100 in 109 innings.



For his career, Johnson is 31-18 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home. So, this season's home numbers were right there with what he regularly does here.



Johnson should finally get some run support here. Familia has a terrible 8.64 ERA in seven relief appearances and he'll be making his first start here.



Also, note that Giancarlo Stanton recently returned to the lineup. He's arguably Miami's best hitter. Assuming he's in the lineup, Johnson should be pleased to see his bat back.



Johnson's last game against the Mets saw him allow just one run on three hits, through eight complete innings. That was his seventh consecutive start against the Mets that he allowed three or fewer earned runs. (He allowed less than three in five of those seven.)



Going back further reveals that Johnson has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 17 career starts against the Mets and four or less in ALL 17 of those. The Marlins were 11-6 in those games, including 5-1 the last six at Miami. Overall, Johnson is 8-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP against them.



While the price may initially seem a little steep, given Johnson's history of success here, his current form, his career numbers against the Mets AND his pitching opponent, I feel that the line could easily be higher. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on San Diego and LA to finish OVER the total. These teams were involved in a low-scoring affair last night. I expect considerably more runs this afternoon.

As you're probably aware, Petco Park is a good pitcher's park. That's factored into the O/U line, the reason that O/U lines are so low here. Last night's low-scoring game wasn't unusual. However, "day" games (this is a 3:35 start, local time) are often higher-scoring.

Over the past few seasons, totals here have been very evenly split, about 50% each way. Excluding "pushes," its been a 115-113 breakdown, in favor of the over. Overall, the Padres have seen their games go 232-227, once again very equal. However, if we isolate just the SD day games, we find the OVER at a profitable 86-66, including a 29-20 mark this season.

Entering this series, SD games average 8.3 runs. Games here at Petco average 7.6 runs. Day games average 8.5 runs.

LA day games have also been higher-scoring than LA night games. Entering the series, Dodger games average 7.7 runs overall but 8 when playing in the afternoon.

Harang and Richard just opposed each other on 9/5. That game only finished with a score of 4-3. However, it easily could have been higher, as neither starter was that good. Richard allowed 10 hits and walked one batter in just 4 2/3 innings. He had just one strikeout. Harang wasn't any batter. He lasted just five innings and gave up seven hits and walked three, also striking out just one. Both were fortunate to allow "only" three runs. Now, the hitters will have had a recent look at both starters and that should help in getting some quality swings.

Neither pitcher was that good last time out either. Richard got the win but gave up four runs on eight hits, in just six innings. He's got a 4.58 ERA his last three starts.

Harang lasted just 4 1/3 innings last time out. Although he gave up just two runs, the nine baserunners (7 hits, 2 walks) aren't a good sign. He's got an ugly 1.80 WHIP (4.20 ERA) dating back to the 9/5 game vs the Dodgers. For the season, his WHIP is a high 1.50 on the road, where he averages just 5.6 innings per start.

Even with yesterday's result, the OVER is still 4-2-1 when the Dodgers have played here this season, 15-9-1 the last 25 here. Don't be surprised when the bats come to life. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. A couple of losses over the weekend really hurt the Phillies' already slim playoff chances. They're still "mathematically" alive though and I expect them to bounce back with a big win today.



After Sunday's loss, Cliff Lee noted: "Obviously, we're running out of games. We really need to win every game. Today was big, but there's nothing we can do now."



Hamels gets the call. Not only is he having an outstanding season, he's also 12-5 with a 2.48 ERA lifetime against the Nationals. That includes a 2-1 record with a dominating 1.17 ERA this season.



Phillies is 15-6 overall and the Phillies are 19-10 (+6.4) when he starts, 3-0 the last three. Hamels has a stellar 2.85 ERA (1.102 WHIP) at home this season, averaging better than seven innings per start here. He's got 91 Ks in 91 innings here, too.



Hamels' lone loss in the season series came at Washington on 8/2, when he was outpitched by today's starter Ross Detwiler. Now, Hamels gets the rematch on his "home turf" though. The last time he faced the Nats here (5/23) he tossed eight shutout innings.



Admittedly, Detwiler is having a strong season and currently pitching well. As I mentioned, he did beat Hamels at Washington. His road numbers don't compare favorably against Hamels' home numbers though. In fact, he's just 2-4 on the road and has a mediocre 3.98 ERA, averaging just 5 1/2 innings.



The Nats will soon be crowned NL East champions. But for now, the Phillies are still the champs, 5-time defending ones. I believe that they've still got the pride that comes with being a champion.



The Phillies are 41-23 (+9.2) the past few seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Even with the disappointing results overall, they're still a profitable 16-9 (+3.6) in that role this season.



Playing a must win game in front of their home fans, I expect the Phils to play like defending division champs, if only for a day. *8 Personal Fav.

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. Both these teams are off back-to-back losses. While those losses have yet to hurt the Sox, they've been devastating to the Angels. Desperate for a victory, I expect them to bounce back tonight.

The pitching matchup features Peavy taking on Santana. While Peavy has the better ERA on the season, I expect Santana to out-perform him here.

Santana hasn't pitched since 9/12, when he took a ball off his forearm. He was pitching very well in that game though (1 earned run in 6 innings) and had been great for quite some time. Over his last six starts, he had a 2.70 ERA.

I don't expect there to be any issues with Santana, who has thrown two bullpen sessions. He was quoted as saying: "I feel more energized and have more desire to win now than ever because time's running out."

Santana pitched well in his only start against Chicago this season. He didn't factor in the decision but the Angels won, 6-5. He's got a respectable 3.86 ERA his last four against the Sox.

That's a lot better than Peavy's 5.40 ERA (and 0-2 record) against the Angels.

While Peavy is certainly no slouch, note that the Sox are only 6-9 (-3.5) when he starts on the road.

Keep an eye out for Albert Pujols, familiar with Peavy from their days together in the National League. The former MVP is 10 for 25 (.400) with three home runs against Peavy.

Both teams average 4.7 runs per game on the season. However, the Angels are averaging five per game over their last seven while the Sox are averaging 4.4.

The Angels hit .273 as a team, .272 at home. The Sox hit .256 as a team, a mere .241 on the road. (They average only four runs per game away from home.)

The Sox bullpen has a very respectable 3.19 ERA. However, the Angels bullpen has them beat with a stellar 2.66 mark at home.

While their chances are starting to look rather bleak, I don't expect the Angels to go down without a fight. They stay alive with a big win here. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TB and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. While both teams are off high-scoring games yesterday, this O/U line is low for good reason.

Shields was mediocre last time out. He allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings. However, in his defense, he only allowed four hits and walked one, (which is pretty good) plus the game was at Yankee Stadium, so he was facing a dominant lineup. Now, he's back home and facing a weak lineup, one that he tends to dominate.

Shields is 4-0 with a commanding 1.11 ERA and 41 strikeouts (in 40 2/3 innings) in five starts against the Jays since the start of last season.

Also, keep in mind that prior to his start vs. the Yankees, he was 6-1 with a 1.90 ERA in his previous eight starts.

Shields has seen the UNDER go 3-0-1 his last four starts. His most recent starts vs. the Jays finished with a score of 4-1.

Villanueva allowed two runs through seven innings last time out. That 3-2 final brought the UNDER to 1-0-1 his last two starts and 8-5-1 on the season. Both his 2012 starts against the Rays have finished below the total. They had scores of 2-0 and 3-2. Villanueva had a stellar 2.25 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 12 innings in those two starts.

The UNDER has been profitable here for years (652-517 L1100+ and 149-82 L3 seasons) and that's continued to be the case this season. The UNDER is 46-26-3 here, entering tonight's action. Note that even with last night's game going over (not until the 9th!) the UNDER is still 33-16-2 when the Rays have faced a team with a losing record.

Both teams average in the bottom four in the A.L. in hits per game. Both are also among the four worst in terms of strikeouts per game. I expect a low-scoring affair. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Mariners were on the wrong side of last night's 18-inning marathon, a game that took nearly six hours to play. Normally, I might stay away from a team that just lost a game like that. However, I like how this one sets up for the M's.

Felix Hernandez goes for the M's. I successfully played on the 'over' the last time that the Seattle ace took the mound, suggesting that "King Felix" may not be at his best. That was for a game at Toronto though and against a Jays team that tagged him for seven runs in his previous start against them. Sure enough, pitching a meaningless (for postseason implications) game, Hernandez struggled again.

Hernandez is back home now though and I expect him to be fired up. He's been among the very best pitchers in the game for years now and he was all summer long. He'll be anxious to atone for his recent sub-par outings and to finish the season strong. I also feel that he'll take tonight's game personally on his shoulders, after last night's heartbreaker - and as Baltimore is right in the thick of the playoff race. Felix would desperately love to be in a pennant race of his own - and for now, this is as close as he's going to get to it.

Seattle's most popular ballplayer had this to say: "I have to do something. The last three starts have been disappointing.''

A couple of recent losses notwithstanding, the M's are still 7-3 the last 10 times that Felix took the mound here. He allowed one earned run or less in five of those and two or less in seven of them. (Remember, it was only a couple of weeks ago that he was on a 9-0 run with a 1.40 ERA.)

For the season, Hernandez has a 2.48 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 16 starts here. During that stretch, he's got 122 Ks to just 23 walks, allowing only five home runs.

In tonight's case, after last night's marathon, its also important to note that Hernandez usually goes deep into games. He averages 7.3 innings per start here.

Saunders has pitched fairly well recently. However, he's not in Hernandez's class. For the season, his ERA is 4.24 and his WHIP is 1.373. His team is 9-16 (-7.8) when he takes the mound, 4-9 on the road. That's not all his fault - but I don't expect his team to help him out much here.

While the O's have been great in extra inning games, they're beatable the day after. In fact, some of you will recall that we successfully played against Baltimore off an extra inning win just a few days ago. (O's lost 3-2 on 9/14, off a 14-inning win the previous day).

The O's have had plenty of success here but Safeco still belongs to King Felix. Seattle bounces back. *9 Personal Fav

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Giants grabbed yesterday's series opener. I look for the Diamondbacks to return the favor here though.

Miley wasn't that good last time out, although he still got the "W." He's been very consistent all season though and checks in with a 15-9 record to go along with a 3.07 ERA and 1.153 WHIP.

Miley's last start (the sub-par one) was on the road. He was his usually stingy self in his last home start though, allowing three runs through seven complete innings. That "quality start" actually hurt his home ERA, as he's been that good here. On the season, he's got a 2.73 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 12 starts here, averaging better than 6 1/2 innings per.

Zito, on the other hand, has a 4.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his 13 road starts, averaging less than 5 1/2 innings per.

While Zito is 5-8 with a poor 5.13 ERA (1.607 WHIP!) in 18 starts vs. Arizona, Miley will have the advantage of starting against the Giants for the first time. (He did throw four shutout innings in relief against them.) Note that Zito's ERA here at Arizona climbs to a brutal 5.86.

The Giants have won some of Zito's recent starts in the series but he's been less than dominant. Most recently, on 9/3, he allowed four earned runs in five innings but the Giants bailed him out by scoring nine themselves. That's not likely to happen with Miley on the mound though. The Dbax aren't quite out of the Wildcard race yet. Miley's been coming up big for them all year and I look for him to do it again here. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Texas and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Mariners to finish 'over' the total yesterday. However, even at the time, I admitted that they were a light-hitting team. We're getting a far more generous line to work with tonight and we've got pitchers in better current form. I believe the value now lies with the other way.

Darvish has dominated lately. Last time out, while he didn't factor in the decision, he allowed only one earned run and just two hits, through eight innings. He had eight K's and walked only two. That one finished well below the total, a final of 4-2. He's 2-0 (Texas is 3-0) with a superb 1.64 ERA his last three starts.

In his last home start, Darvish tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 10. That one finished with a final score of 1-0.

Admittedly, Iwakuma wasn't his best last time out. However, he's still got an excellent 2.12 ERA his last three starts and a stellar 2.80 ERA in 12 starts overall.

The UNDER is 8-2-1 (or 8-3) the last 11 times that Iwakuma has taken the mound. Ten of those 11 games produced eight or fewer combined runs. I expect this one to do the same.

These pitchers should have some added motivation to pitch well against each other. Not only are they countrymen, they're also friends. (The two helped Japan win the World Baseball Classic in 2009.)

Iwakuma noted: "We are friends, and sometimes we get dinner together and sometimes we talk on the phone. I'm looking forward to pitching against him."

The UNDER is 20-11-1 when the Rangers have played a home game with an O/U line of 9 or 9.5 (and also 17-5 on Fridays.) I expect a well-pitched affair. *10

I'm playing on NEW YORK. There's no denying that Price is having a great season. However, I believe the Yankees are favored for good reason.

While he's dominated at most ballparks, Price, who had his last start skipped due to shoulder soreness, has a mediocre 4.50 ERA here at NY this season.

By comparison, Sabathia has a 2.78 ERA and 0.996 WHIP in his 10 starts at NY this season.

The Yanks come in as the hotter team. They're also catching the Rays off a devastating 14-inning loss at Baltimore yesterday. While they're not out of it yet, that loss may ultimately prove to be the "dagger" and the Rays are well aware of it. It'll likely be hard to bounce back from.

It doesn't help that the Rays can't score many runs. After yesterday's game, Joe Maddon noted the following: "It's just the same old story: We can't score enough runs."

Over the past six games, the Rays are 4 for 37 with runners in scoring position.

Don't expect any sympathy or mercy from the Yanks tonight. They know they can put away the pesky Rays once and for all with a big series and I look for them to start it off with a win here *9

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. Both these teams have struggled of late. Both remain in contention for a Wildcard spot though. Needless to say, this is a huge series.
As Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said. "St. Louis and ourselves, we have let a lot of people back in the race - but it's still in our hands. No matter how bad it has looked and no matter where it has been, it's still right there for us.''

As neither club appears likely to be able to catch Atlanta, the winner of this series will be in good shape. The Cards currently hold a 1-game lead over the Dodgers but I expect them to be tied after tonight's game.

I backed the Dodgers in Beckett's last home start and he rewarded me with a 2-1 win. Beckett allowed six hits and one run through 6 2/3 innings. He had an impressive nine K's and one walk.

At the time, I said this: "While its been a trying season, Beckett can still salvage it with a good final month. Extremely motivated to deliver his best performance, I expect Beckett to bounce back with a much better effort."

Beckett did indeed bounce back with a much better effort. Back at home, in another very important spot, I expect Beckett to again step up his game.

Off a mediocre road outing last time out Beckett noted:, "They didn't bring me here to pitch OK. They brought me here to pitch good."

I don't feel as confident about Lynn. While he won his first six starts and was selected to the All Star team, Lynn has since struggled. In fact, he's been relegated to the bullpen in recent weeks, after compiling a terrible 6.56 ERA in his last five starts, including an even worse 8.74 ERA (1.853 WHIP) his last three. Returning to the rotation in this critical spot may not be ideal.

The Dodgers are a profitable 14-5 on the season as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Beckett getting the better of Lynn, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10 Personal Fav

I'm playing on Toronto and Seattle to finish OVER the total. True, these are light-hitting teams. True, Felix Hernandez is among the best in the game. Still, I feel an O/U line of 7.5 is too low for a game between these two teams, at Toronto.
A look at the first three games shows O/U lines of 8.5, 8 and 9.
After a stretch of dominance, Felix Hernandez has come back to earth his last couple of times out. Two starts ago, he gave up five runs on nine hits, four of them earned. He was worse last time out, giving up six runs (5 earned) and 11 hits, lasting just 4 2/3 innings. Hernandez has thrown an awful of innings again this season and it's possible he's starting to wear down a little.
Hernandez last faced Toronto on 4/11/2011. That start didn't go too well either. King Felix gave up a whopping seven runs on 12 hits. The game produced 15 runs, an 8-7 final. He's got mediocre 4.37 ERA in eight starts vs. the Jays.
Alvarez pitched quite well at Boston last time out. He wasn't very good in his last home start though (4 runs in 5 innings) and he's still got an ugly 6.14 ERA his last three starts. On the season, he's 3-9 with a poor 5.02 ERA in 14 home starts.
Alverez has seen the OVER go 4-1-1 his last six starts. Five of those six games produced at least eight runs. Looking back further finds that 11 of his last 14 starts have produced at least eight runs.
Don't be surprised if this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. *9

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. This series has already really hurt the Angels' wildcard chances already. With their ace on the mound, I expect them to bounce back and look for them to earn a badly-needed victory.
Admittedly, the Angels' offense has struggled in the series. They're also up against a red hot pitcher, as Anderson has exceeded expectations, since returning from Tommy John surgery. That said, Anderson still only has a fairly small "sample size" since making his return and this LA lineup is too potent to stay quiet for long.
Note that all four of Anderson's starts have come against teams (Seattle, Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota) that were already out of the playoff race. They included games the two lowest-scoring teams (Seattle and Cleveland) in the A.L.
Of course, with Weaver on the mound, LA likely won't need to score many runs. The Angels' ace is an awesome 16-4 on the season and he's got a 2.86 ERA and 1.029 WHIP. At home, those numbers are even better. In 12 starts here, he's got a 2.62 ERA and 0.833 WHIP.
The Angels are 19-6 (+9) in Weaver's starts including 10-2 (+5.9) here at Anaheim.
True, Weaver has come back to earth a little recently and he also missed his last start. He's back and ready to go now though and I expect him to return to his dominant ways.
Weaver commented: "I'm looking forward to getting back out there."

Considering that he's 2-0 with a 0.38 ERA against the A's this season and 5-1 with a 1.02 ERA against them the last two seasons, I'd be looking forward to getting back out there too!

The Angels haven't been swept in a 4-game series here by the A's in more than a decade. I don't expect it to happen on Weaver's watch this afternoon. *9

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Red Sox have hurt me recently and I'll be the first to admit that they're not a very good team at the moment. Even bad teams win games though and I feel this is a good spot for the Sox. I'm willing to give them one final try.

Buchholz is about as good as the Sox have these days and generally gives them a solid shot at a victory. He's gone seven innings in each of his last two starts but has gotten no run support. Despite losing those games, the Sox are still a respectable 14-10 (+2.5) when he takes the mound. Not bad at all when considering their overall record.

Buchholz should be happy to see the Jays. He dominated them this season and he's done so for his career. He's 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA against Toronto.

Buchholz should (hopefully) also finally get some run support. Villaneuva has a poor 5.25 ERA in going 1-3 in four road starts. He's got an even worse 6.97 ERA here at Fenway.

With few willing to back Boston, the price has fallen from its opener. Given the matchup, I believe we're now getting plenty of value. *9

I'm playing on SEATTLE. After a red-hot run, the A's just got swept by the Angels. Facing one of the best in the game, I expect their skid to continue for another day.

King Felix finally lost last time out. However, he tossed a complete game shutout in his previous start and he's been red hot for many weeks. In 15 home starts, he's got a superb 2.18 ERA and 0.958 WHIP.

Admittedly, Griffin has also been pitching very well. However, while Hernandez has been pitching like this for several seasons now, Griffin's sample size is much smaller.

Hernandez is 13-5 with a 2.63 ERA in 25 starts vs. the A's. Seattle was 17-8 (+6.7) in those games.

The M's have played well at home for several weeks now. They've won three of four and six of 10. I expect another big effort from Felix and feel they offer very fair value. *9

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Jays on Wednesday. However, I feel this will be a good spot to go against them.



The Jays are not a good hitting team right now and haven't been for some time. They've scored four or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. They scored two runs or less in four of those, including getting shutout in two of them.



The Red Sox have not hit well either, as they're coming off an awful road trip. However, at least they had a little bit of an excuse for the lack of run-scoring, as they were playing at "pitcher-friendly" parks in Seattle and Oakland.



The Sox should be happy to return to Fenway, where they average 5.5 runs and hit .285.



They should also be happy to see Alvarez, too. He's 0-2 with a terrible 11.37 ERA and 2.37 WHIP his last three starts.



Admittedly, Doubront hasn't been too good either. However, while the Jays are a money-burning 8-18 when Alvarez takes the mound, the Sox are a profitable 15-9 (+4.2) when Doubront has started.



The Sox scored seven runs in 5 2/3 innings the last time that they saw Alvarez. I expect their bats to come to life again here, en route to a Boston win. *9

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both these teams are off a Wednesday loss; each had yesterday off. Both teams have struggled, neither starter pitched all that well last time out and both have poor stats on the season. I like the current Twins lineup better than the Indians one though. Playing at home, I feel that they'll have the edge.

Hendriks was not sharp last time out, although he did strike out five without walking a batter. In his defense, that was on the road. While he has not had a good season, he dominated in his last home start. In that game, he allowed just three hits, while going the distance. Unfortunately, he was up against Felix Hernandez and the Twins couldn't provide him with a single run. He lost 1-0.

Back on his home mound, Hendriks should have some confidence. His 4.15 ERA here isn't great but it isn't bad either. (Much better than his road ERA.) His 1.286 WHIP here is solid. Certainly, those numbers deserve more than an 0-4 home record. Hendriks should receive significantly more support than he did in the 1-0 loss vs. King Felix.

Manager Ron Gardenhire said this of the fact that Hendriks is still searching for his first victory: "His teammates want to see him get it and so do I ... "

Gomez did win last time out. However, he still gave up two home runs in 5 2/3 innings and he's still got a 6.89 ERA his last three starts. He's got a 5.05 ERA on the road.

The Twins are in one of their best roles here. They're 40-17 (+17.2) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. They've had success against the Tribe this season and I look for them to finally get Hendriks a win here. *10

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Brewers have taken two of the first three meetings in this series. I expect the Marlins to bounce back and salvage the split.

Although neither got a "W," both starters were very good last time out. Estrada allowed one run through seven innings, giving up just four hits. Johnson was every bit as good though; he allowed just one run on only three hits, lasting eight innings.

Johnson's home numbers are much better than Estrada's road numbers though.

Estrada is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in seven road starts, his team losing six of those.

Johnson is only 5-5 at home but he's got a stellar 2.90 ERA and 1.163 WHIP.

While Estrada averages 5.4 innings per road start, Johnson averages 6.4 innings at home.

Estrada's given up six home runs in 38 road innings. Johnson has given up only five home runs at home, despite pitching more than twice as many (96.3) innings.

Estrada has a 7.56 ERA in his two starts vs. the Marlins. His lone start at Miami saw him allow five earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings.

Johnson, on the other hand, is 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts against Milwaukee, the Marlins going 5-1 (+4.2) in those games. While he didn't pitch well at Milwaukee earlier, Johnson's last home start against Milwaukee saw him allow just one run in seven innings. I expect Johnson to get it done and for the Marlins to close out the homestand with a victory. *10

I'm playing on TORONTO. After getting shut out 4-0 in the opener, the Jays were embarrassed yesterday, losing 12-0. That should provide some added motivation here, as they look to bounce back and avoid the sweep. With an expected edge on the mound, I expect them to do just that.



Morrow gets the call for the Jays. He's a very talented pitcher who had been on the disabled list. After not pitching since June, he came off the DL on 8/25. Not surprisingly, he was a litlte rusty in that start. Facing these same Orioles (at Baltimore) he allowed four runs (2 earned) in 4 2/3 innings. Still, the 7 K's (against just 1 walk) showed that he still had an excellent stuff. Morrow followed it up with a gem last time out, holding the Rays to one run through 6 2/3 innings, en route to a 2-1 Toronto victory.



Including that strong start, Morrow is 8-5 with a stellar 2.95 ERA and 1.056 WHIP.



Morrow's last home start against the O's came on 5/30. He allowed only one run on just four hits, striking out eight. He got the "W" in a 4-1 Jays victory.



Admittedly, Gonzalez has also pitched very well. Give him credit for doing so. However, lets remember that he was an undrafted free agent and that he missed the 2008 and 2009 seasons, because of a knee injury and Tommy John surgery.



He's still had limited major league experience and will be making his third straight road start, for the first time in his career. He's only made two starts against a couple of teams - and won't have the advantage of facing Toronto for the first time here.



Even after yesterday's setback, their fourth straight, the Jays remain an excellent 36-23 the past few seasons, after losing three or more in a row. During that stretch, they're also 15-8 off a shutout loss. They haven't been swept in three games by the O's here in more than seven years and I look for them to bounce back in a big way here. *10 TAL East GOW

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants won a wild one yesterday. After leading 4-0 through the first half of the game, they found themselves trailing 8-5 going into the bottom of the 8th inning. They scored two in that frame though, pulling within a run. The Giants added another one in the bottom of the 9th, before winning it in the 10th. That type of victory can help a team build positive momentum.

On the other hand, losing a game like that can have a deflating effect. Now 2-9 their last 11, yesterday's loss may have been the one that officially killed the Dbax' hopes.
Vogelsong has been very solid all season. He had a rare bad start at San Diego on 8/19 but has bounced back with a pair of respectable starts, both of them SF wins. He's 12-7 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.193 WHIP. At home, his ERA dips to 2.44. The Giants are a profitable 17-8 (+9.6) when he takes the mound.

Kennedy pitched very well last time out, beating Kershaw and the Dodgers. He gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his previous start though, so can be a bit inconsistent. He's got a mediocre 4.27 ERA overall and the Dbax are 7-9 (-1.9) when he starts on the road.

Both starters have fared well against today's opponent. Kennedy has a 2.01 ERA against SF. Vogelsong has an even better 1.89 ERA against Arizona. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been a strength much of the way but has been letting them down recently. The team has blown leads in five of its last six defeats and closer Putz has blown saves in back-to-back games. All things considered, I feel the price on the home team is more than fair. *9

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Red Sox certainly haven't been too good lately and they're taking a lot of heat for it in the media. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been rolling. Yet, its still the Red Sox which are favored. That'll likely have a lot of bettors taking a good look at the underdog. I have a feeling the Sox are ready to snap out of it though.
Lester has not had a good season, one of the many reasons why Boston is not where it would like to be. However, his seasonal stats don't tell the whole story on how he's pitched recently.
The Red Sox southpaw did give up five runs last time out, which obviously isn't very good. However, that was against a powerful Anaheim team and Lester did still manage to go eight innings. He didn't give up a single run after the third inning either. So, he did put it together in that game. He was quoted as saying: "After the third, I was able to get in more of a rhythm and slow them down."
Prior to the loss against the Angels, Lester had a stellar 2.25 ERA in his previous three starts, while going 3-0. That included a 2-0 record on the road, as he allowed just two runs in 13 road innings, striking out 16. The Sox won those games by a combined score of 18-2.
Lester has gone a minimum of six complete innings in seven straight starts. He's only allowed two home runs over those seven games and the game against the Angels was the only time (during that 7-game stretch) that he allowed more than four earned runs.
Lester should be happy to see Seattle. Last time against the M's, he pitched a complete game, allowing a single run. Including that 6-1 victory, which came back in May, he's 2-1 with an excellent 2.01 ERA in the last four meetings in the series, recording 40 Ks in 31 1/3 innings.
On the other hand, Beaven is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox. Beaven is fortunate to have a winning (9-8) record this season, as he's got a 4.95 ERA.

Enough's enough. Lester bounces back and Boston gets back on track in a big way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Mets have won the first two games in this series. They haven't swept the Marlins on the road in five years though and I don't expect them to do so this afternoon.

Ageless Mark Buehrle enters today's game in top form. He's 3-0 with an excellent 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP his last three starts.

For the season, Buehrle is 7-4 with 2.91 ERA in 13 home starts, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. Pretty impressive when considering the type of year that the Marlins have had.

Buehrle has also pitched very well against the Mets. In two starts against them - both this season - he allowed two runs through 6 2/3 innings and two runs through 7 innings. That translates to a 2.63 ERA.

On the other hand, Young got hammered in his lone start against the Marlins this season. In that 8/8 outing, he lasted only 4 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs. Serving up three home runs while walking three batters didn't help matters. Including that 13-0 loss, the team is just 4-11 (-6.7) when Young takes the mound. He's got a 4.79 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in his nine road starts, averaging only 5.2 innings. He's only won once in his last 10 starts and is 0-2 with a 5.91 ERA in his last four.

Although they have been winning recently, the Mets haven't scored many runs of late. At a disadvantage on the mound, I expect their streak to come to an end here. *9

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. Things have not gone as planned for the Dodgers recently. After making a big trade with Boston, they were hoping for a boost. However, the trade has had the opposite effect thus far; they've 2-5 since making the moves. The Dodgers are still in good shape - but they know they need to turn it around immediately.

Manager Don Mattingly put it this way: "We still have a chance to control our own destiny if we can play really well down the stretch. You don't have to look back very far to see what can happen in the last month of a season if you remember what happened to Atlanta last season and the Cardinals and Boston. So this thing's far from over, but we need to get on that run.''

Beckett's Dodger debut wasn't too good - to put it nicely. While its been a trying season, Beckett can still salvage it with a good final month. Extremely motivated to deliver his best performance, I expect Beckett to bounce back with a much better effort.



Skaggs is a big-time prospect for Arizona and he's gotten off to a solid start. However, he's off his first loss and there will be some growing pains along the way. He's walked seven in 12 1/3 innings, while also hitting some batters. This will be his first road start and he'll be facing a desperate team.



While the Diamondbacks are 40-44 (-8.4) vs. right-handers, the Dodgers are 28-21 (+5.6) vs. southpaws.



The Dodgers, 16-5 (+11.5) on Saturdays, are in one of their best roles here. They're 13-4 (+7.7) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With a much improved Beckett leading the way, I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday night. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Tigers didn't play too well at KC, as they were swept there. They've been excellent at home though, winning five of their last six and going 39-26 here on the season. The Tigers are also a dominating 9-1 the last 10 times that they hosted the White Sox, 5-1 this season. Knowing this is their opportunity to close the gap, I expect the Tigers to continue that home park dominance, starting the series with an important win.

While the Tigers know how to win in this park, the Sox are only 1-6 their last seven games away from Chicago, hitting a mere .216 in those games. They've only scored 15 runs in six games here this season.

Fister missed his last start due to a groin issue. That may have explained his poor outing, prior to that. Before that one poor start, he'd been excellent. In fact, he'd gone seven straight starts with three or fewer earned runs allowed, going six or more innings in each of those games. Over that 7-game stretch, he'd allowed a mere nine earned runs in a total of 53 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.52 ERA. Fister's groin is reportedly just fine now and I look for him to bounce back with a much better effort.

Fister, who has a career 3.51 ERA vs. Chicago, will have the advantage of starting against the Sox for the first time this season.

That will not be the case for Peavy , as he has a 5.06 ERA in four 2012 starts against the Tigers, including an ugly 7.30 mark in his last two.

While Peavy certainly can be tough, the Sox are only 5-8 (-3.5) when he pitches on the road.

The Tigers are 6-3 (+2) off three straight losses and 8-3 (+3.8) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. *10 Personal Fav

I'm playing on Cleveland and Texas to finish UNDER the total. The Indians have seen each of their last two games finish above the total. However, the UNDER remains a profitable 7-2 their last nine games and I expect things to return to "normal" here.

Dempster has really pulled it together his last couple of starts. In those two games, he's gone 2-0 while allowing just three runs through 14 innings. In 11 "road" starts this season, he's got a stingy 2.50 ERA. While he hasn't started against them for quite a few years, Dempster has a 1.46 ERA in two starts vs. the Indians.

Jimenez has certainly had some issues on the road while also struggling with his control at times. However, he's at home today - where he's got a very respectable 3.54 ERA in 11 starts - and he's got 12 K's against only two walks in his last two starts. So, his control has been good in recent starts.

Jimenez pitched seven shutout innings in his lone start against Texas this season, allowing just two hits. He got the "W" in a 4-2 win.

The Indians have seen the UNDER go 28-13-1 the past few seasons when listed as home underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. That includes a 10-3-1 mark this season. During that stretch, the Rangers have seen the UNDER go 14-5 as road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. With seven of the Rangers' last 10 visits to Cleveland also having fallen below the total, I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10 blue chip

I'm playing on Cleveland and Texas to finish UNDER the total. The Indians have seen each of their last two games finish above the total. However, the UNDER remains a profitable 7-2 their last nine games and I expect things to return to "normal" here.

Dempster has really pulled it together his last couple of starts. In those two games, he's gone 2-0 while allowing just three runs through 14 innings. In 11 "road" starts this season, he's got a stingy 2.50 ERA. While he hasn't started against them for quite a few years, Dempster has a 1.46 ERA in two starts vs. the Indians.

Jimenez has certainly had some issues on the road while also struggling with his control at times. However, he's at home today - where he's got a very respectable 3.54 ERA in 11 starts - and he's got 12 K's against only two walks in his last two starts. So, his control has been good in recent starts.

Jimenez pitched seven shutout innings in his lone start against Texas this season, allowing just two hits. He got the "W" in a 4-2 win.

The Indians have seen the UNDER go 28-13-1 the past few seasons when listed as home underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. That includes a 10-3-1 mark this season. During that stretch, the Rangers have seen the UNDER go 14-5 as road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. With seven of the Rangers' last 10 visits to Cleveland also having fallen below the total, I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10 blue chip

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins got back on track with a big 10-0 victory yesterday, pounding out 16 hits in the process. Reading the Associated Press' preview of this game, it says the following of the Twins: "The offensive display in their latest contest was certainly stunning ... "

I wasn't so "stunned." Not only did I have the Twins in that game but I also had the Over, correctly predicting that the Twins' offense would "get back on track." (To be fair, I had lost with the Twins the previous day.) Off that big performance, I expect the Twins to now win back-to-back games, salvaging the series split and closing out the homestand with a victory.

I attended the 8/19 Twins/Mariners game at Safeco. The pitching matchup for that one was Deduno vs. Beaven. The M's won that game and Beaven escaped only allowing one run. However, I wasn't impressed. He gave up seven hits in 5 1/3 innings and it could have been worse. The Twins hit the ball hard - just right at people. They hurt themselves with some poor base-running and the M's got some good defense. I left the park feeling that Beaven was "fortunate."

Off yesterday's breakout game, facing Beaven for the second time in less than two weeks and now doing so at home, I expect the Twins to put up some runs. Note that Beaven has an ugly 6.25 ERA in his last six road starts.

True, Duensing wasn't good at all last time out. However, that was at Texas and he was up against a much better lineup than he'll see here. In his previous start, Duensing allowed only one run through six innings, striking out seven while giving up just five hits. He won that game by a score of 7-2. So, while he's certainly no Cy Young candidate, he's at least had some recent success.

While the Twins just saw Beaven, the M's haven't seen Duensing since May of 2011. He held them to three runs (on only four hits) through seven complete innings that day.

Note that this is an "early start" and that the West-Coast based Mariners are a dismal 52-86 (-29.6) in day games the past few seasons, just 12-30 (-19.8) when playing on a Thursday. The M's are hitting a dismal .207 in day games this season, averaging a paltry 3.3 runs.

Familiar with today's pitcher, I expect the Twins hitters to have the advantage again here. I also feel that the price is providing us with plenty of value. *10

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. When the Phillies look back on this season, they'll realize that things could have potentially been a lot different if they'd just taken care of business against New York. With yesterday's victory, the Mets are now 10-4 against the Phillies, including 5-0 the last five. The Mets haven't won six in a row at Philadelphia for my entire life though (last time they did so was in 1971) and I don't expect that to happen today.

Niese gets the call for the Mets and its true that he's been very good of late. Over his last three starts, he's 2-1 with an excellent 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

However, Kendrick goes for the Phillies and he's quietly been even better than Niese recently. Over his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a dominating 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. He's averaging better than seven innings per start in those games and the Phillies have won them by a combined score of 13-2.

While Kendrick doesn't have a very good history against the Mets, he hasn't started against them this season (did pitch against them in relief in May) or, at any previous time when he's been pitching this well.

Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel said this of Kendrick: "When he gets in a good rhythm, he moves the tempo and is in control of the game. He can command the ball about where he wants to. He's relaxed more and his confidence is big. He's always had to fight to survive. He's proved he can pitch."

The Phillies, who have seen Niese a few times already this season, entered this series playing well - prior to NY's visit, they'd won four straight and seven of nine. Playing the final game of a homestand, I expect them to step up and avoid the sweep. *9

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Angels are in the thick of the Wildcard race. The Red Sox are now playing out the string. While Wilson has admittedly struggled of late, I still believe he's a better pitcher than he's shown.

Despite his recent struggles, Wilson still has a respectable 3.78 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season. Even after struggling at Fenway last time out, he's also still 4-0 with a dominating 2.35 ERA in six starts vs. the Red Sox, his teams winning all six of those games.

Stewart, who has a 6.00 ERA in 16 appearances overall, has made only one start this season and that was back in June with Chicago. He gave up nine hits, four of them home runs, in 5 2/3 innings, losing 12-3. That was actually an improvement over his previous start (which came in Sept of 2011) when he allowed 12 hits, four of them home runs, giving up nine runs in just four innings, losing 11-1. His teams are 0-4 his last four starts, getting outscored by a combined margin of 40-10.

The Angels will have the much better lineup on the field. They got back on track last night and I look for them to follow it up with another important win here. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Minnesota and Seattle to finish OVER the total. We haven't seen much offense from the Twins of late. However, I expect that to change here.

While the Twins only managed two runs against Vargas on Seattle on 8/18, they did record eight hits against him, only striking out twice. So, he wasn't exactly dominating them. Now, they see him for the second time in less than two weeks, while catching him on the road (where he's not as good) and off a shaky outing in his last start.

Last time out, Vargas lasted only four innings, giving up six runs including three home runs.

For the season, Vargas has a 4.62 ERA on the road. The Under is 9-2 when he pitches at home but the Over is 10-6 when he pitches on the road. Twenty-three of his 29 home runs allowed have come when he's pitched on the road.

Like Vargas, Deduno got rocked last time out. He lasted five innings and gave up seven runs. Like Vargas, Deduno will be facing today's opponent for the second time in less than two weeks - often an advantage for the hitters.

Games in this park are still averaging nearly 10 runs per game while Seattle road games are averaging greater than nine. All things considered, I feel the number is generously low. *9

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After the Mariners took it to them in Seattle, the Twins have now dropped both games to start this series. I expect them to finally get back on track here.

While the Twins only managed two runs against Vargas on Seattle on 8/18, they did record eight hits against him, only striking out twice. So, he wasn't exactly dominating them. Now, they see him for the second time in less than two weeks, while catching him on the road (where he's not as good) and off a shaky outing in his last start.

Last time out, Vargas lasted only four innings, giving up six runs including three home runs.

For the season, Vargas has a 2.63 ERA at home, where opposing batters are hitting just .215 against him. However, on the road his ERA climbs to 4.62 ERA with opposing hitters batting .263 against him. Twenty-three of his 29 home runs allowed have come when he's pitched on the road.

That's been typical of his career. Vargas is 24-21 with a solid 3.51 ERA at home for his career, opposing hitters batting .238. However, he's 17-26 with an ugly 5.20 ERA on the road, opposing hitters batting .278.

He's got a career ERA of 4.72 past the All Star Break and a 5.07 career ERA in August.

In two starts at Target Field, he's got a terrible 6.75 ERA and 2.06 WHIP.

Deduno has some issues of his own. However, he is 2-0 in three home starts and the Twins won all three of those games. Opposing hitters are batting only .200 against him here, as opposed to .292 on the road.

I feel this is a great price on what should be a highly motivated Minnesota club. *9

I'm playing on Cleveland and Oakland to finish OVER the total. This O/U line came out at 8.5 but dropped to 8. Given the fact that both teams are on "under" streaks at the moment, that move is understandable. However, just because a line move "makes sense" doesn't mean that we aren't getting value by going the other way. In this case, I believe we are.

True, the Indians have really been struggling to score runs - they were shutout for the second game in a row yesterday. In their defense, the Indians did manage eight hits yesterday which typically wouldn't result in zero runs. They'll get a shot at a struggling pitcher here and I expect their bats to finally come to life.

Blackley goes for the visitors and he's allowed five runs in back to back starts. In each case, he lasted only five innings.

Blackley has made one career start vs. the Indians and he allowed seven runs in two innings, giving up three home runs. (That translates to a 31.50 ERA!) The final score was 18-6. While that debacle was a number of years ago now, it may still be in the back of Blackley's head.

The A's scored seven runs yesterday. They've scored at least three runs in four straight games, averaging nearly five during that stretch. They'll be seeing Kluber for the second time in less than two weeks. In five starts, Kluber has seen the OVER go 4-1 while compiling a poor 5.33 ERA and 1.733 WHIP. He averages less than five innings per start.

The Indians have seen the OVER go a profitable 103-77-4 the last few seasons when the O/U line was eight or 8.5. With both teams scoring runs for the first time in the series, I expect those stats to improve here. *10 blue chip

I'm playing on Toronto and New York to finish UNDER the total. As mentioned a few times over the summer, the Yankees have been a very profitable "under" team when playing during the afternoon. The UNDER is 27-14 when they've played during the afternoon. I expect those stats to improve here.



Sabathia has long dominated the Jays. He's 13-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.042 WHIP against them. This season's lone starts against Toronto saw Sabathia toss six shutout innings, allowing only four hits. Including that 6-1 victory, the UNDER is 11-5-1 in Sabathia's carer vs. the Jays.



Sabathia enters this afternoon's game in excellent form. Last time out, he allowed only one run on just four hits, lasting 7 1/3 innings. He struck out nine, walking only one. The final score was 3-1. Sabathia now has 26 K's to just three walks his last three starts, compiling a superb 0.783 WHIP during that stretch.



For the season, Sabathia is 6-2 with a stingy 2.81 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in nine home starts.



Happ's season-long stats aren't as good as Sabathia's. However, like Sabathia, he's currently in very good form. Last time out, he held Detroit to just one run only four hits, through 7 1/3 innings. In his previous start, he limited Texas to two hits and one run, through six complete innings. Those are two very good teams and he allowed a total of six hits and two runs through 13 1/3 innings. During that stretch, he had 15 K's vs. just four walks. Both games stayed below the total, each finishing with 3-2 scores. A similar result won't surprise. *9

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Mariners recently had their way with the Twins up in Seattle. They blanked them again last night too. However, that was with King Felix on the mound, perhaps the hottest pitcher in the game. Tonight, I expect the revenge-minded Twins to get some payback.



Both these pitchers just pitched well against today's opponent in the recent series at Safeco. Iwakuma beat the Twins on 8/17, tossing seven strong innings. Diamond got a no-decision the next night, allowing two runs through 6 2/3 innings.



Diamond should be happy to return home though, while Iwakuma may not be thrilled to leave pitcher-friendly Safeco.



Iwakuma has made three starts on the road thus far. In those games, he has a mediocre 4.00 ERA and the M's are 1-2. He's averaged six innings per road start and has given up an average of a home run each time out.



Diamond, on the other hand, has made 10 home starts. In those games, he's 6-2 with a stellar 2.58 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. He averages less than a home run per start and allows less than one walk per home start, despite averaging a very healthy seven innings per start here. The Twins are a profitable 7-3 (+4.6) when he takes the mound here.



This hasn't been a good role for the M's in recent seasons, as they're just 15-35 (-18.4) the last 50 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. During that stretch, they're also a money-burning 45-88 (-36.2) vs. southpaw starters.



Yesterday, in addition to facing Felix Hernandez, the Twins were playing their first game back home off a long road trip. That can sometimes be difficult, particularly when up against such a dominating pitcher. That's not the case here though. With a home game under their belts and now facing a less intimidating starter, I expect the Twins to bounce back in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing CLEVELAND on the Run-Line. With the A's favored on the money-line, we're able to get the Indians +1.5 for what I believe is a very reasonable price. While I actually expect Cleveland to win this game outright, getting +1.5 runs certainly improves our chances of cashing. Note that six of yesterday's 11 games were decided by a single run.



While he didn't get any run support, McAllister is off a gem last time out. Through six innings, he allowed just one run on three hits. That was at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. However, McAllister was also excellent in his last home start. In fact, through eight complete innings, he held Boston to only three hits and two runs. He didn't walk a batter and got the "W" in a 5-2 Cleveland win.



Including that dominating effort, McAllister has quietly compiled a very solid 3.21 ERA and 1.219 trough his nine home starts. He's got a 47/13 K/W ratio here and the Indians are 6-3 (+3.1) vs. the money-line in his starts. Note that one of McAllister's home losses came by one run, too. So the Indians would be 7-2, if getting +1.5 runs in each of his home starts.



McAllister has gone at least six innings in six of his nine starts here and he's allowed three earned runs or less in all nine of them.



Milone is also off a strong start, as he dominate the Twins last time out. That was at Oakland though, where he's had much better success. He's had trouble on the road. In 12 starts away from Oakland, he's 4-6 with an ugly 5.77 ERA and 1.529 WHIP. While he's only given up three home runs at home, he's given up 17 on the road.



While the A's won five of Milone's 12 road starts overall, one of those came by a single run. So, they'd be just 4-8, if laying -1.5 runs in each of his 12 road starts.



The Indians hit Milone well less than two weeks ago, at Oakland. They got seven hits and four runs in five innings against him. I expect them to have some success again here, earning AT LEAST "the cover." *9

I'm playing on Boston and KC to finish UNDER the total. After a relatively low-scoring (4-3) series opener, both the weekend games were high-scoring. Each produced double-digits in runs. I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday afternoon though.



Hochevar gets the call for the visitors. Every so often, this guy reminds us that he was the #1 overall pick in the 2006 draft. He's sure done so lately. Two starts ago, he allowed only four hits and three runs, through seven innings. He got no run support though and lost 3-0.



Last time out, Hochevar was even better. The Royals only provided him with a single run. However, that was all he needed, tossing eight shutout innings. Hochever allowed only one hit, while striking out 10. KC won by a score of 1-0.



Unlike Hochevar, Matsuzaka was not good last time out. (The game still stayed below the total.) In fact, he lasted only one inning and gave up five runs. He was very tough in his previous start though, allowing just one run through 5 2/3 innings. Prior to his last start, he'd allowed four runs in each of his starts. So, while the ERA took a big hit last time, he hasn't been as bad as it may appear at first glance. The trade of Beckett gives him another shot and I look for him to be motivated to make the most of it.



Even with the last two games finishing above the number, the Royals have still seen the UNDER go a lucrative 16-8 this month. With Hochevar off his best start of the season, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. *This IS still a play with Cahill going instead of Saunders. If you bet listed with Saunders, you will have to re-bet with Cahill.* The Diamondbacks sure were hoping for better things from this series. I do expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep at least.

The Padres have been rolling. However, it should be noted that only one game in their recent winning streak came against a left-handed starter. They're 17-27 (-7.7) against southpaw starters and this afternoon they'll be facing one that generally gives them fits.

Saunders wasn't very good last time out. However, he's 3-0 with a commanding 0.28 ERA in his last four meetings against the Padres.

Cahill now goes instead of Saunders. While he's not a southpaw, he has enjoyed success against San Diego, like Saunders. In fact, in three career starts vs. San Diego, he's got a superb 1.29 ERA. He's been more consistent than Saunders too, as he's allowed four earned runs or less in 11 straight starts.

Volquez pitched well last time out. However, that was at pitcher-friendly Petco, where he's thrived. Pitching away from San Diego has been a different matter. In his two previous starts, both of which came on the road, Volquez allowed 12 runs in just seven combined innings. For the season, he's got an ugly 5.60 ERA to go along with a 1.694 WHIP in his 12 road starts. Walking 44 in 64 road innings hasn't helped.

The Diamondbacks remain a profitable 34-18 (+9.6) the past few seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect them to bounce back in a big way. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates got back on track yesterday. Their 4-0 victory snapped a 4-game slide while also breaking Milwaukee's 4-game winning streak. With the momentum back on their side, I expect the Pirates to follow it up with another win this afternoon.

The Pirates have been at their best during the afternoon this season. They're 27-16 (+14) in day games this season. On the other hand, the Brewers are only 20-27 (-12.2) when they've played during the afternoon.

Bedard was shaky last time out. That was at St. Louis though. He's been very tough at home this season. In 11 starts here, he's got a stellar 2.63 ERA and 1.119 WHIP. He's also only allowed two home runs in more than 60 innings pitched here. The Pirates have won his last two starts here by a combined score of 15-5.

On the other hand, the Brewers are 1-4 when Rogers has started, including 0-3 on the road. He's got a 5.02 ERA in his five starts overall and a 5.50 mark on the road.

The Pirates average a modest 3.9 runs per game at home. However, that's more than the 3.7 the Brewers average away from Milwaukee. The Pirates make up for it with a bullpen that has a 2.85 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in 173+ home innings. Not so much for the Brewers. Their bullpen has a 4.73 ERA and 1.526 WHIP overall. While Pittsburgh has 42 saves and nine blown saves, Milwaukee has 29 saves vs. 22 blown saves.

All things considered, getting the Pirates at (roughly) a pick'em price is very fair. *10

I'm playing on SF and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. After winning with these teams to go "under" the total on Thursday, I came back and won with the "over" in yesterdays game. I expect this afternoon's contest to be the lowest-scoring of the three.
The Braves haven't hit as well vs. southpaws and they'll be facing a good one here. Bumgarner tossed eight shutout innings in his last start. He gave up only four hits, didn't walk a batter and he struck out 10. He got the "W" in a 2-1 Giants win. In his previous start, he tossed a complete-game, allowing one run on five hits.
For the season, Bumgarner is 8-1 with a superb 1.87 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 11 home starts. He's averaging 7.4 innings per start here and has given up only three home runs. With 76 K's vs. only 12 walks here, he's clearly been the real deal. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is a profitable 6-3-2 in his starts here.
Bumgarner has seen three of four career starts vs. the Braves fall below the total. This season's lone start against them had a final score of 3.2. He'll face an Atlanta team which is hitting .197 and averaging 2.4 runs over its last seven games.
Minor has really turned the corner in the second half. His ERA has now dropped in eight straight starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in ALL eight of those and less than three in six of them. He didn't get any run support last time out (which may well be the case again) but still pitched very well. In seven innings, he allowed just one run on only five hits. For the second straight start, he didn't walk a batter.
Manager Fredi Gonzalez said this of Minor, a 1st round pick in 2009: "I thought he was outstanding."

Minor should be happy to see the Giants. He's got an excellent 0.75 ERA in two starts vs. SF, one of them finishing with a final score of 1-0.

Minor's last three starts have all finished with five or fewer combined runs. I expect another "pitcher's duel" this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on SF and Atlanta to finish OVER the total. I eked out a winner with these same two teams to finish "under" the total last night. The O/U line was 7.5 and the game finished with seven runs. (Things got a little tense when the Braves scored two in the top of the 9th!)

Yesterday's final combined score of seven runs was not uncommon. Two of yesterday's eight games (25%) finished with seven runs. Two of the Giants' last three home games have finished with seven runs.

Today's O/U is lower than yesterday's though and I believe that we're now getting excellent value with the OVER. If it becomes available to you, as I suspect it will, I'd suggest playing at 6.5. However, if not, getting "plus money" on the 'over 7' is also recommended.

While I had reason to believe yesterday's game would be low-scoring, I don't feel that way today.

After a hot start to his comeback, Sheets has come back down to earth. Over his last two starts, he's given up 11 runs and five homers in 12 innings.

Vogelsong has also struggled the last couple of times out. In fact, he's lost both those games while surrendering 11 runs (on 17 hits!) in just 5 2/3 innings.

True, as mentioned yesterday, the Braves have been on a very profitable "under" streak recently. However, that hasn't been the case for the Giants, as they've still seen the OVER go 14-7-1 on the month and 9-3 their last 12. The OVER also remains a solid 6-3-1 the last 10 times that these teams played each other here.

With such a low number, even if one of today's starters struggles again, we should have an excellent shot at cashing. I expect that'll be the case. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Rockies enter as the much hotter team. They're off a sweep of the Mets while the Cubs just got swept at Milwaukee. However, I feel that the Cubs are favored for good reason.

Samardzija gets the call and he's been a bright spot for Cub fans all season. The Cubs have won seven of his 10 home starts with Samardzija compiling a very solid 3.36 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in those games. In his last start here at Wrigley, he allowed just one run and four hits through seven complete innings, striking out 11. The Cubs won 7-1.

A closer look shows that Samardzija has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 10 starts here, averaging a healthy 6.4 innings. He's allowed just four runs in total his last three starts here, all three of them Chicago victories.

On the other hand, Pomeranz is 1-3 with a poor 5.68 ERA on the road. He's averaging just 4.2 innings in his six road starts, four of them Colorado losses.

Even with a win yesterday, the Rockies are still a dismal 12-27 when playing during the afternoon, getting outscored by an average score of 5.8 to 3.8. Cubs win. Cubs win. *9 WGN Main Event

I'm playing on SF and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. The Braves saw yesterday's game finish below the total, earning an important 5-1 win at Washington. They've now seen nine of their last 10 games finish below the total, the majority of those finishing with six or fewer combined runs. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-4 their last 20. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

While the Giants are off a high-scoring game (8-4) last night, they've still been a team which is involved in low-scoring games, particularly here at San Francisco. For the season, games here are averaging a mere 6.6 runs. The Giants hit .257 here and average 3.4 runs. Visiting teams hit inly .229, averaging just 3.2 runs.

While the "over" is now 41-21-1 when the Giants play on the road, the UNDER is a profitable 35-23-3 when they play here at home.

Hanson, 8-2 on the road for the season, is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA his last three starts. He's only faced the Giants once the past couple of seasons. In that 4/22/11 game, he allowed only three hits and one run, through seven complete innings. He had seven K's vs. only one walk, earning the "W" in a 4-1 Atlanta win. He's 2-0 with a solid 3.24 ERA and stingy 0.92 WHIP.

Zito can indeed be maddeningly inconsistent. However, he's had real success against Altanta and I expect him to pitch well here. In six starts vs. the Braves, he's 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. This season's lone start against the Braves saw him deliver seven shutout innings. He allowed just three hits. His previous start against Atlanta came in August of 2010 and it was against Hanson. That resulted in a pitcher's duel. Zito struck out 10 in seven innings and the Giants won 3-2. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. After the Phillies won Game 1 in convincing fashion, the Reds have won back-to-back games in this series, each victory coming by a single run. I feel that the Phillies have an excellent shot at salvaging the split.



Both these starting pitchers have been excellent. Cueto is a leading and deserving candidate for the NL CY Young Award. He's 16-6 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.126 WHIP.



Hamels isn't getting as much recognition - in large part because of the Phillies' poor season. However, his numbers are very comparable. He's 14-6 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.109 WHIP.



Cueto averages 6.8 innings per start and has an impressive 135 Ks to just 37 walks. However, Hamels averages 7.1 innings and has 168 K's vs. only 42 walks.



Cueto is averaging 7.7 innings his last three starts, going 2-1 with a dominating 1.96 ERA. During that time, he's got 20 Ks vs. two walks.



However, Hamels is averaging 8.6 innings his last three starts and has an even better 1.05 ERA. Plus, he's got 21 K's vs. two walks.



So, although Cueto may have the better shot at the Cy Young - Hamels has arguably been every bit as good.



I expect Hamels to have the advantage on this day. For starters, he surely knows that a win in head-to-head competition vs. Cueto would help get him some recognition, improving his shot at the Cy Young. More importantly, he's dominated the Reds over his career - while Cueto has struggled vs. the Phillies.



Cueto has been fairly solid his last few starts in the series but is still 1-3 (team is 2-4) with a 5.08 ERA vs. the Phillies for his career.



On the other hand, in 10 career starts against the Reds, Hamels is a perfect 8-0. He's got a a commanding 1.26 ERA (0.837 WHIP) in those games - his lowest ERA against any major league club. The Phillies won ALL 10 of those games. I expect another one here. *10 Roast

I'm playing on St. Louis and Houston to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game finished below the total, a 4-2 St. Louis victory. I expect a similar result this afternoon.

Westbrook goes for the home team and he's really come around of late. Over his last three starts, he's got a superb 1.69 ERA and 1.031 WHIP. While he took a hard luck loss last game, he still only allowed one earned run in 7 2/3 innings, losing 2-1. He also allowed just one earned run in 7 2/3 innings in his previous start, winning that one by a score of 4-1.

Westbrook's last home start vs. the Astros had a final score of 3-1. Westbrook got the win, allowing a single run through six innings.

Keuchel isn't exactly a household name. He's been solid of late though, delivering three straight quality starts. He's allowed two earned runs in each of his last two starts, most recently a 3-1 loss vs. Arizona. Keuchel would give up only four hits through 6 2/3 innings.

The Astros have now seen the UNDER go 14-5-2 the last 21 times that they faced a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have now seen the UNDER go 17-6-2 the last 25 times that they faced a team with a losing record.

The UNDER is also 25-11-2 the last 38 times that the Cards were listed as home favorites in the -250 to -330 range. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on Detroit and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on these teams to finish below the total yesterday. Today's O/U line is lower, as Verlander is on the mound. However, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair and I still believe that the current number is providing us with solid value.



Here's what I said of Toronto's offense yesterday: "...while they were swinging well earlier in the season, the Jays are not a good-hitting club right now. They've scored just 11 runs their last five games combined, never scoring more than three. They've now scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. I look for the bats to stay cool for another day ... "



The Jays would finish with just two runs - and they didn't score any until the sixth inning.



That was against a struggling pitcher who they'd had success against too. Now, they'll face one of the best in the business.



Verlander has a 6-2 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in 11 home starts. He's averaged 7.6 innings in those games, while seeing the UNDER go 8-3. Overall, the UNDER is 17-7-1 when the Tigers' ace has taken the mound this season. The last time that Verlander faced the Jays, he threw a no-hitter.



Obviously, Happ isn't in Verlander's class. However, he could be in line for a solid outing here. He'll have the advantage of starting against the Tigers for the first time and he's coming off a very well-pitched game, which should give him some confidence. In that game, he limited powerful Texas to only two hits and one run, striking out eight (one walk) trhough six innings. He got the "W" in a 3-2 Jays win.



The Tigers have seen the UNDER go 33-16-2 their last 51 day games. I expect those stats to improve here. *9

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Off back-to-back losses, many are likely going to consider the Yankees as an underdog in this one. The notion being that the Yankees rarely lose three straight. The Sox are favored for the good reason though and the Yanks are indeed fully capable of dropping another one. Given the pitching matchup, I feel that the price could easily be higher.

Sale has been huge here this season. In 10 home starts, he's 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. In his last start here, he had 11 K's without walking a batter. That gives him 61 K's to just 11 walks here on the season. He's averaging seven innings per start here, too.

While he's had success against Chicago in the past, Hughes is 3-7 with an ugly 5.31 ERA on the road this season. In his last road start, he allowed seven runs in four innings.

We know the Yankees can hit. The Sox average 5.4 runs per game in this park though, hitting better than .270 as a team here. So, they can swing with the best of them. (Yankees average 4.9 rgp on the road, hitting .265 which is about the same as they do at home.)

Break out the brooms. Chicago sweep the Yanks here for the first time since 1991. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on Toronto and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game stayed below the total, a 5-3 win for the Tigers. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.



The UNDER is now 6-1 since the start of the 2010 season, when the Jays have played here at Detroit. All six of those "unders" finished with eight or fewer combined runs.



While he did take the loss, Laffey is off a "quality start" last time out. He pitched very well in each of his last two starts against the Tigers (both in 2009) allowing one run in 6 2/3 innings and two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings. Those games finished with scores of 4-2 and 3-1.



Normally Toronto might be happy to see Sanchez. Not only has he struggled a bit of late but the Jays have had some success against him. However, while they were swinging well earlier in the season, the Jays are not a good-hitting club right now. They've scored just 11 runs their last five games combined, never scoring more than three. They've now scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. I look for the bats to stay cool for another day. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on Oakland and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. The Twins "exploded" for seven runs on Monday, earning a 7-2 victory. However, they promptly followed it up by scoring just one yesterday. They've now scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games, managing just one in three of those. While their bats may wake up next series (at Texas) I expect the Twins to have some trouble scoring again this afternoon.

Admittedly, Milone has cooled off a bit of late. However, he's still 5-3 with a stellar 2.35 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 11 home starts. He's averaged seven innings in those 11 games (a total of 76 2/3) and has only given up three home runs the entire time. He's had 52 K's here while walking only 12. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 7-4 in his home starts.

Milone limited the Twins to two runs in six innings the only time he faced them. That was at Minnesota and also when the Twins bats were a little hotter than they are now.

Hendriks is no Cy Young candidate - and he gave up four runs in four innings last time out. However, that was at Detroit. This is Oakland. There's a big difference. The A's, who are averaging three runs per game so far in this series, average less than four runs per game here. On the season, games are averaging less than 7 1/2 runs in this park.

While the Twins are averaging 3.8 runs and hitting .252 in day games, the A's are averaging 3.8 runs and hitting only .223 in theirs. The A's have seen the UNDER go 23-16-2 in the afternoon while the Twins have seen the UNDER go 23-15-2. More of the same here. *10

I'm playing on the NEW YORK METS. Off back-to-back losses, I expect the Mets to bounce back with a big win this evening.



Young didn't get a decision in his last start. However, he held the Reds scoreless for nearly six innings. It was his is second strong start in August (he also had a poor one) as he began the month by holding the Giants to one run and four hits through seven innings, en route to a 9-1 victory.



Young last started against the Rockies in 2009, limiting them to two hits and one earned run (3 total runs) through six complete innings. This time, he'll face a seriously depleted Colorado lineup, missing a number of regulars.



While the Mets couldn't provide him with any runs last time out, Young should get some support here. Chacin comes off the disabled list to make his first start since 5/1. That's probably not a good thing for the Rockies. Chacin is 0-2 with a terrible 8.10 ERA his last three starts. He's made five starts on the season and is 0-3 with a 7.30 ERA and 1.865 WHIP.



While they have now won two in a row, the Rockies haven't generated too many winning streaks in recent years. Indeed, they're a money-burning 90-110 (-37.8) the last 200 times that they were off a victory in their last game.



With Young getting the better of Chacin, I look for the Mets to bounce back and beat up on their depleted guests. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. As mentioned yesterday, the Phillies have dominated the Reds. Their bats have to life and they've now won 10 of their last 14 here.



Cliff Lee's record remains poor. However, I remain convinced that he's still much better than that record indicates.



Keep in mind that he's got 23 K's and ZERO walks his last three starts. In 64 2/3 home innings, he's got 67 K's and eight walks - not typical numbers of a 2-7 pitcher!



Lee should be happy to see the Reds as he is 3-0 with a commanding 1.40 ERA in three starts against them since 2010, lasting at least eight innings in each while totaling 22 strikeouts against only two walks.



While run support has been an issue many times for Lee this season, it shouldn't be today. Bailey has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts. He failed to go a full six innings in any of those start, going a total of just 19 2/3 innings. During that stretch, he's given up 20 runs, 18 of them earned. That translates to a 8.24 ERA.



Bailey was quoted saying: "... I have no excuses, just not making pitches as consistently as I need to."



While Lee has enjoyed fairly recent success against the Reds, Bailey is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA against the Phillies and he's got an awful 7.00 ERA in four starts here at Philadelphia.



The Phillies have scored 20 runs in winning their last three games. While their chances are certainly remote, don't tell them that they're out of the Wildcard race yet! *9

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Reds have the much better record this season. However, they've historically had problems with the Phillies and I expect them to have some trouble again tonight.

Dusty Baker said this of playing here: "That's probably been our toughest spot to play in the last couple of years - or them, period."

Dusty isn't making that up - the Reds have lost 15 of 19 here. Overall, the Phillies have beaten them six straight.

Halladay goes for the home team and the former Cy Young winner has really started to regain his form Indeed, he's 2-1 with a superb 1.64 ERA in three August starts, striking out 20 and walking two. In his last two home starts, Halladay has allowed just one run in 15 innings.

Note that Halladay went 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts vs. the Reds last season. Ludwick, arguably the Reds' best hitter since Votto went down, is hitless in nine career ABs against Halladay.

Admittedly, Leake did pitch very well last time out - he tossed a complete game. Keep in mind that he was 0-1 with an awful 7.90 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in his previous three starts though, averaging less than five innings in those three starts.

Also, note that Leake is 0-1 with an ugly 6.64 ERA in three starts vs. Philadelphia.


While their chances of earning a Wildcard spot remain remote, the Phillies are playing very well these days. They're 9-4 their last 13 games here. With Halladay continuing his recent strong form, I expect them to continue their dominance of the Reds here for at least another day. *9 Annihilator

I'm playing on Boston and NY to finish UNDER the total. These teams combined for only five runs yesterday, a 4-1 Boston victory. I expect another well-pitched affair this evening.

Kuroda has been dominant for weeks now. He's 8-2 with a stellar 2.30 ERA his last 15 starts. Last time out, he tossed a complete game shutout vs. Texas, allowing just two hits. Including that 3-0 victory, he's now got a superb 1.66 ERA his last three starts, all of which have fallen below the total. The UNDER is now a highly profitable 18-6 when he's taken the mound, including 10-4 here at New York. He's allowed only three runs over his last 30 1/3 innings in his last four starts here at NY.

Admittedly, Beckett hasn't enjoyed the same kind of success. That said, he's 9-3 for his career at New York. Beckett hasn't pitched here yet this season but did allow just two combined runs in his two 2011 starts here. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts here.

The Red Sox remain without Ortiz in their lineup and the Yankees appear likely to still be without Teixeira.

For the season, the UNDER is 16-6 when the Yanks have been listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. With Kuroda continuing to do his thing and Beckett bouncing back with an improved effort, I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10 blue chip

I'm playing on Seattle and Minnesota to finish OVER the total. This has been a low-scoring series. However, I expect this afternoon's finale to be considerably higher-scoring.

Beaven goes for the suddenly streaking Mariners. He's got a poor 5.17 ERA on the season. He's not getting much better lately either, as he's allowed four runs in each of his last two starts. The OVER is 9-7-2 when he takes the mound, 4-3-1 here in the Pacific Northwest. The Twins should be able to see their bats come to life against him.

Deduno has had some success for the Twins. However, with more walks than strikeouts (30 walks in 40 innings!) I feel that he will give up some runs here. He's seen four of his last five starts finish above the total and all four of those "overs" produced a minimum of a dozen combined runs.

Given the starting pitching matchup, I feel that a number of 7.5 is offering us very solid value. *9

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. I went to bed last night with the Angels comfortably leading the Rays. I woke up to see Tampa came back to win. While that proved costly, I'm absolutely willing to give LA another shot today.



Greinke gets the call for the home team. While he wasn't dominant, Greinke did earn his first victory as an Angel last time out. I expect the former Cy Young winner to build off that and look for him to pitch well today.



Note that Greinke has been excellent in each of his last four starts vs. the Rays. He went a minimum of seven innings in all four of those starts, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each of them. Over that 4-game stretch, he gave up just six earned runs in 29 combined innings. (That translates to a 1.86 ERA.)



There's no denying that Moore has pitched well of late for the Rays. He even pitched well on the road last time out. However, that was at pitcher-friendly SafeCo Park, against the light-hitting Mariners. That result notwithstanding, Moore typically hasn't been nearly as sharp outside of Tampa.



In nine road starts, Moore is 2-3 with a mediocre 4.19 ERA and 1.454 WHIP. The Rays are a money-burning 2-7 (-6.2) in those games. When compared to Greinke's 5-1 home record, (teams are 8-2, +5.2) Moore's road stats don't seem too good.



This play isn't just based on the pitching matchup though. I still believe that this Angels team is a very good one. They're now behind a few teams in the Wilcard Race though, including these same Rays. Knowing that they take to the road for a lengthy and potential difficult road trip after this, I expect a huge effort, as they close out the homestand with a badly needed victory. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on LA. The Rays have taken the first two games of this series, each of their victories coming in convincing fashion. I expect the Angels to bounce back with a big win of their own today though.



Wilson allowed two (earned) runs through 6 2/3 innings last time out. Despite not having any "W's" to show for it, he's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts.



While Wilson did leave Monday's game with a bruised hand, x-rays came back negative.



Wilson has a stellar 2.35 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 53 2/3 career innings vs. the Rays. He's got an impressive 60 K's during that stretch, while holding Tampa hitters to an extremely low .178 batting average.



Cobb has pitched well recently, as he's off three consecutive quality starts. He'd only had one in his previous five outings though and is still below .500 (7-8) with a mediocre 4.08 ERA on the season. He's also got a career ERA above four against the Angels and a poor 4.58 ERA when pitching during the evening this season.



While the Rays have swung the batter bats through the first two games, I still believe the Angels have the better hitting lineup. They demonstrate that here. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Arizona and Houston to finish UNDER the total. The Astros have been a "streaky" O/U team recently. From 8/7 to 8/10, all four of their games finished below the total. That was followed by a stretch in which all five of their games (from 8/11 to 8/15) finished above the number. That 'over' streak came to an end yesterday, as the Diamondbacks won the opener by a score of 3-1. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

Corbin gets the call for the visitors and he's been excellent of lately. Over his last three starts, he's 2-0 with a superb 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. He didn't allow a single home run in any of those games.

While he doesn't have any "W's" to show for it, Lyles is also off back to back quality starts. He allowed two runs in each of those starts. They finished with eight and five runs, respectively.

For the season, Lyles has been MUCH better at home than he has been on the road. In eight starts here, he's got a very respectable 3.61 ERA to go along with a solid 1.147 WHIP. He's averaging 6.5 innings per home start and has seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 here.

As we saw yesterday, the Astros have trouble hitting southpaw starters. (They entered the series hitting a mere .221 vs. left-handers, averaging only 3.5 runs in those games.) With Corbin making his first start against them, I expect runs to again be at a premium. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers took yesterday's series opener. They've now quietly won seven straight at home. I expect them to have the advantage again this evening.

Gallardo is off three straight victories, each of them quality starts. He's got a superb 2.08 ERA and 1.108 WHIP over that 3-game stretch averaging better than seven innings per start. Gallardo has now allowed one run or less in five of his last eight starts, allowing three or less in eight of his last 10.

Gallardo had this to say: "I felt pretty good Sunday. I was able to command all of my pitches. I'm just trying to go back out there and get back in that same rhythm I was in before."

As has been the case for his career, Gallardo has been better at home than on the road. He's 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts here this season. Those are very consistent with his career home numbers, 36-18 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

If you look at his entire body of work, Worley has been relatively solid on the season. However, his ERA has been climbing recently, as he's been showing signs of wearing down. Last time out, he allowed four earned runs on nine hits, lasting july 5 1/3 innings. In his previous start, he allowed four runs in only 3 2/3 innings.

Worley, who is due to have offseason surgery to remove bone chips in his pitching elbow, now has a 5.73 ERA since the start of July.

Given the Brewers' hot streak here, Gallardo's 2-0 home record (19 K's and 2 walks in those games) vs. the Phillies and his overall 1.53 ERA and 0.962 WHIP against them, I feel that this price is more than reasonable. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates have dropped the first three games of this series. Costly losses indeed. They're now seven games back of the Reds. Knowing they head out on the road after this game and with an edge on the mound, I expect the "desperate" Pirates to step up and avoid the sweep.



Note that the Dodgers' last 4-game sweep here came way back in August of 1949, when the franchise was based out of Brooklyn. (They haven't even swept a 3-game set here since 2004.)



Still 36-23 at home on the season, the Pirates send Burnett to the mound. Burnett tried to rally his teammates by holding a players-only meeting prior to Wednesday's game. While that meeting didn't result in an immediate victory, I do expect Burnett to go out and lead by example. He's had a fantastic season, going 14-4 with a 3.32 ERA and he'll be trying to become the first Pirate pitcher to win 15 games this entire millennium.



While he wasn't at his best last time out (still had 10 Ks in 5 2/3 innings) Burnett has done his best work at home. He's 7-1 with an outstanding 2.33 ERA and 1.118 WHIP here. The Pirates are 10-1 (+8.6) in his 11 starts here.



On the other hand, Blanton is 4-6 with a 4.69 ERA on the road.



While the Pirates faced Blanton back in June, the Dodgers haven't seen Burnett since 2010 and before that since 2005. That could put the Dodgers hitters at a bit of a disadvantage, at least the first time through the lineup.



The Pirates are 25-14 (+14) in day games. With Burnett stepping up and leading the way, I expect them to close out the homestand with a badly needed win. *9

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and LA to finish UNDER the total. The first three games of this series have all finished above the total. However, I expect a different result this afternoon.

With the UNDER now 35-22-2 here on the season, the Pirates send Burnett to the mound. Burnett tried to rally his teammates by holding a players-only meeting prior to Wednesday's game. While that meeting didn't result in an immediate victory yesterday, I do expect Burnett to go out and lead by example today. He's had a fantastic season, going 14-4 with a 3.32 ERA and he'll be trying to become the first Pirate pitcher to win 15 games this entire millennium.

While he wasn't at his best last time out (still had 10 Ks in 5 2/3 innings) Burnett has done his best work at home. He's 7-1 with an outstanding 2.33 ERA and 1.118 WHIP here. The UNDER is 8-3 his last home starts and 12-6 overall.

Note that the UNDER is 22-14-3 when the Pirates have played during the afternoon.

Blanton hasn't been as as good as Burnett on the season and his 4.57 ERA in 22 starts isn't too impressive. However, he does have a very solid 1.19 WHIP and with 123 K's to just 23 walks, he's also got an excellent K/W ratio.

Blanton has had success against the Pirates. He's 2-0 with a stellar 2.94 ERA and 0.891 WHIP against them. He allowed two earned runs through seven innings against them in June, striking out eight and walking one.

Both bullpens have very solid numbers on the season. I expect a well-pitched affair. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I won with the Braves yesterday. They've got a starter in much better current form here and I'm going back with them again today.



Maholm is off a complete-game shutout in his last start. The Mets won 4-0. Maholm allowed only three hits and didn't walk a single batter. That gives Maholm a superb 1.59 ERA and 0.838 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's 6-3 with a stellar 2.76 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 12 home starts.



On the other hand, Volquez has a terrible 13.50 ERA and 2.60 WHIP his last three starts. He's been getting progressively worse too. Three starts ago, Volquez allowed five runs in five innings. Two starts ago, he allowed four runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 3 1/3 innings. Over that awful 10 inning stretch, he's allowed 15 runs and walked 11 batters. For the season, Volquez has a 5.40 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in 11 road starts.



As pointed out yesterday, the Braves have a better hitting lineup and their bullpen has been better at home than San Diego's bullpen has been on the road. All things considered, I feel the price could be easily be much higher. *9 Personal Favorite