I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Diamondbacks took yesterday's game but the A's will have a significant advantage today. Montas has been superb. Through three starts, he's got a sparkling 1.57 ERA. Last time out, he limited the Astros to just two hits through seven shutout innings. In his previous start, he allowed just four hits and one run, once again going seven complete innings. He recorded 14 combined K's in the 14 innings, too. Weaver, on the other hand, has failed to go more than four innings in any of his four starts. He's 0-3 with a terrible 11.86 ERA. At home, his ERA climbs to an obscene 13.50 to go along with a 2.50 WHIP. Ugly. Yes, the sample size is limited. But Montas is clearly in better form. Oakland also has the edge in the bullpen as its relievers have a combined 2.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting 83% of save opportunites. Arizona relievers, meanwhile, have a combined 5.00 ERA 1.46 WHIP, converting on 54% of save chances. The A's are 82-52 off a loss the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on SD. The Padres lost a tough one yesterday but I expect them to bounce back and start their series against the Rangers with a victory. While I successfully played against the Padres last time that Davies started, that was against the Dodgers. To his credit, Davies pitched very well. In fact, he allowed just four hits and two runs through seven complete innings. Despite playing some tough opponents (Dodgers) and at some difficult parks (Colorado) Davies has a stellar 2.78 ERA and 0.838 WHIP through his first four starts. Lyles, on the other hand, has an ugly 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. The Padres badly need to stop the bleeding if they want to remain relevant in the NL West. Expect them to bounce back with an important win.  

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cards returned to play and took both games in yesterday's double-header. Also, Hudson and the Cards won when these two starters matched up against each other last October, when Keuchel was with the Braves. This afternoon, both Keuchel and the Sox get some payback. Keuchel continues to produce quality. Last time out, he allowed three earned runs in six innnings. In his previous three starts this season, he allowed two, two and one earned run. In two home starts, he's got a stellar 2.19 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Since last season, including the loss against Hudson, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in six straight starts. Speaking of Hudson, due to the Cards long layoff, he's only made one start and his rhythm is likely to be off. That one start was was back on 7/26, against the lowly Pirates, and it did NOT go well. In just four innings, he allowed seven hits, two of them leaving the yard. Sox bounce back. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. With Lynn on the mound, the Rangers got good pitching yesterday and were able to eke out a 3-2 victory. Today, however, the Rockies will have a significant edge in the starting pitching department. Through four starts, Marquez has a superb 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. He's the real deal. Gibson, on the other hand, has a 4.11 ERA and 1.566 WHIP. The Rockies are 44-25 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, the Rangers were  24-50 as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. Expect Marquez to outpitch and outlast Gibson, en route to another Colorado victory here. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I expect the Rockies to win this one outright. However, if they're going to give me an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price - given the current form of Lynn - I'm happy to grab them. Lynn started to come back to earth a little last time out; through five innings, he allowed two earned runs while giving up four hits (1 HR) and walking three batters. Lynn lost 8-4 the last time that he started at Colorado. Though he didn't go deep, Castellani was excellent (0 hits!) in his debut as he and the Colorado relievers combined for a 1-hitter. He faced 12 batters and he retired them all. Texas relievers have an ugly 8.84 ERA and 1.96 combined WHIP on the road. Rockies earn AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on LA/SD to finish OVER the total. I waited patiently for this line to drop from 8.5 to 8 and it finally did. Now, with all due respect to the starters, I feel that the number is too low. Yes, Paddack can be tough. However, the Dodgers just saw him recently at Petco; that game finishing with nine combined runs. The last time Paddack pitched at LA, the game produced 21 runs, an 11-10 final. Paddack gave up six runs in four innings. Urias' last two games finished with nine and 13 combined runs. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, too.

I'm playing on LA. With Gonsolin now in the for the Dodgers, we're getting a better price than we would have otherwise. There's nothing wrong with Gonsolin though. In fact, he allowed 0 earned runs and just a single hit, through four innings, in his lone 'spot' start. In his last six starts, since last season, he has allowed just five combined earned runs through 28 complete innings. With Gonsolin unlikely to stick around too long, note that the Dodger bullpen has a stellar a 1.31 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At home, that WHIP dips to 0.81. The Padres, 8-15 the past few seasons, after having won their previous three, send Davies to the mound. Like Gonsolin, he's unlikely to "go the distance." Unlike Gonsolin, he's backed by a SD bullpen which has a combined 5.80 ERA on the road. Dodgers bounce back. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHILA. The Phillies' bats came to life in a big way yesterday. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While they gained yesterday, the Phillies know they still have plenty of work to do in the competitive NL East. Wheeler has certainly done his job; he's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. In his lone home start, he allowed only a single run through seven complete innings, good for a 1.29 ERA. While Cobb has also pitched well, he's averaging 4.5 innings per start, compared to Wheeler's 6.5 innings. That means we're likely to see more of the Baltimore bullpen than the Philadelphia one; the O's relievers have a combined 4.56 ERA on the road thus far. The last time that Wheeler faced the O's was in Aug of 2018. He allowed just one run through five innings, picking up the "W." He would have gone longer but his team (Mets) were killing the O's and had just sent 12 batters to the plate, forcing Wheeler to sit for a long time. (His team ended up winning 16-5.) In his only previous start against the O's, Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings. Phillies roll. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. After dropping both games of yesterday's double-header, the Phillies know that they can ill afford to fall further behind the Braves in the NL East. Indeed, funny as it sounds, in this short season, this is practically a must-win game. OK, maybe thats exaggerating. But its definitely an important game. I expect Nola to help stop the bleeding. While he doesnt have any wins to show for it, Nola has a solid 3.97 ERA and a stellar 0.794 WHIP through two starts. Last time out, he limited the very powerful Yankees to a mere three hits and one run, while striking out 12 without walking a batter. Dominant. Newcomb, on the other hand, has a 6.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through his three starts. The Braves are 1-3 when Newcomb has started against Philadelphia. On the other hand, the Phils are 5-2 the past seven times that Nola started against Atlanta. 

I'm playing on LA/Texas OVER the total. Lynn has been good to me thus far, so I'm aware that he's pitched well. Still, I feel that this number is too low. Heaney has also pitched well, admittedly. However, while Lynn has an ERA approaching four against LA, he's 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA in 10 starts vs. Texas. Six of Heaney's 10 starts vs. Texas have produced at least eight runs, five hitting double-digits. Each of Lynn's last two against LA have finished with at least nine runs. Of course, the starters aren't going to be around forever. The LA bullpen has a combined 4.50 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, thus far. Meanwhile, Texas relievers have combined for a 5.44 ERA. The two bullpens have combined for seven blown saves already. Look for the final combined score to finish above this low number. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates lost a wild one yesterday, falling 17-13 in extra innings. Today, however, I expect them to have the advantage. Holland has quietly pitched pretty well. Through two starts, he's got a 0.97 ERA. The Pirates won one of those and lost the other by a run, despite facing a pair of relatively tough lineups and being big underdogs in both those games. Today, facing former teammate Nova and the Tigers, Holland and co. actually opened as small favorites. That's for good reason, in my opinion. Despite facing arguably weaker opposition, Nova has been far more hittable than Holland, as he has a 1.406 WHIP. Even with last night's win, the Tigers are still a dismal 54-110 on the road, the past 2+ seasons. Yesterday's game notwithstanding, the Pirates have fared well in recent years in Interleague play. Expect them to bounce back and stop the bleeding this afternoon. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. Many are reluctant to play against the Yankees, when they're off a loss. However, the Rays will have the advantage in this one and could easily be a larger favorite. While the Yankees are off a hard-fought loss, followed by travel, the Rays had yesterday off. In fact, these teams were originally supposed to play each other Thursday but the Yankees schedule got thrown off and they were forced to stay in Philadelphia and play the Phillies Thursday instead. That should work in the Rays' favor. Of course, the venue also favors the Rays, as they've been much stronger here at home. Indeed, they're 5-2 at home but 0-5 on the road. While Snell is likely to only go four or five innings, I expect him to be sharp when he's in there. Tampa has won four of its last six against NY, including each of the past two, when Snell was on the mound. The rested Rays' relievers have a combined 2.12 ERA (1.000 WHIP) here at home. The Rays, who were blanked by Boston on Wednesday, are 10-5 the past couple of seasons, when off a shutout loss. Expect them to be the team which bounces back with an important victory. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nats have the schedule and venue in their favor. They should also have the edge on the mound. While the Mets are off a game at Atlanta yesterday, the champs had the day off. Despite facing the Yankees in his first start, Corbin was outstanding. He allowed just one earned run, on only two hits, while recording eight K's without walking a batter. Corbin's last start against the Mets was of the quality variety but it was at NY and against Syndergaard. (NY won 4-3.) In his last home start against the Mets, alll Corbin did was record 11 K's against just one walk, while giving up only four hits and one run, through eight innings. Washington won 5-1. Expect another win for the Nats here. 

I'm playing on San Diego on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I like the Padres' chances of winning this one outright. However, in a key divisional battle with a pair of quality starters on the mound, this could easily be a close one, with runs at a premium. Therefore, getting the extra +1.5 runs is the way I'm choosing to go. Speaking of the starters, I backed Paddack in his first start and he rewarded me with a gem. He's now got a 1.64 ERA through two starts. Buehler, on the other hand, has a 4.90 ERA thus far. Paddack's last start saw the Padres lose by a single run. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals are indeed missing a few key members from last year. Rendon made an impressive debut for the Angels last night. Zimmerman opted to sit out and Soto has still yet to play. Hopefully, Soto gets to cleared to play in time for this one. However, even if he doesn't, the Nats still have more than enough to win a game with Scherzer on the mound against a kid making his major league debut. True, Pearson has good stuff and the Jays have high hopes for him. He's up against a future Hall-Of-Famer though. Scherzer, who struck out 11 Yankee batters in 5 1/3 innings on Opening Night, knows his team needs him to come up big to stop the bleeding. Expect him to get the better of the rookie, the champs bouncing back with a much-needed win. 

I'm playing on Seattle/LA OVER the total. Sandoval will be limited to about 75 pitches but he may well not even last that long. Remember, that Sandoval previously tested positive for the virus. That delayed his ability to work out. He did go three innings (51 pitches) against the Padres in his final exhibiition game but gave up five earned runs in the process. Sheffield looked more impressive than Sandoval in the spring. However, intrasquad games are a lot different than facing an angry Angel lineup which will be looking to bounce back after getting blanked Monday. Expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This price came down from its opener, giving us excellent value with the champs. After having to contend with a tough Yankee team, the Nationals will be happy to step down in class to face Toronto. Keep in mind that the Nats were 50-31 at home last season while the Jays were 32-49 on the road. Off an extra-inning loss, the Jays may be a little deflated. Thornton gave up quite a few HR's last year (1.4 per nine innings) and had a 4.84 ERA. While Rendon has moved on, this lineup still has plenty of weapons. Expect victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Paddack should be poised for a strong season for the Padres and I expect him to get it off on the right foot Friday evening. Note that Paddack was 1-0 with a commanding 1.08 ERA in three 2019 starts against the Diamondbacks. Bumgarner, meanwhile, is just 3-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 17 career starts at Petco. Bumgarner normally has an advantage over opposing starters in that he's a better hitter. However, thats no longer an advantage for him, as pitchers won't be hitting. On learning he would start Opening Day, Paddack had this to say: "I had chills running down my arms. I took a deep breath and really reflected on all my hard work paying off since surgery. This is something that’s been a goal of mine ever since I picked up a baseball." I say Paddack and the Padres start things off with a "W." 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Needless to say, home field hasn't meant much in this World Series. That said, with everything on the line, I'd still rather be playing in my home park. Scherzer is an all-time great and he's a warrior. However, lets not forget that he was just scratched a few days ago from nerve irritation in his neck. That sounded pretty serious, at the time. Should he falter, there's no Strasburg coming out of the pen to his rescue. Actually, I shouldn't say that so quickly - this is Game 7 and Strasburg did hint at the possibility. But he wouldnt last long and it would be far from ideal for the Nats.) Corbin could well be the first to come out. He's been far from dominant and the Astros tend to hit southpaws well. Greinke, on the other hand, has Cole ready to come to his aid, should it be needed. He wouldnt be completely fresh either but far more so than Strasburg. The rest of the bullpen favors the Astros. I say they bounce back and finally win at home. 

I'm playing on Washington/Houston UNDER the total. Verlander vs. Strasburg. Not much more needs to be said. Two all-time greats going at it. One trying to win his team the World Series, the other trying to keep his team alive. While Round 1 of this matchup proved high-scoring, I absolutely expect to see quality pitching for this evening's rematch. The Astros have allowed just one run in three straight games. Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the past 20 times that they had allowed one run or less in three straight. The Nats, now trailing for the first time in the WS, have seen the UNDER go 8-0-1 the past nine times that they were trailing in a series. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on Houston/Washington UNDER the total. While the first two games have been high-scoring, I expect Game 3 to go to the pitchers. True, this isn't exactly a "pitcher's park." However, we're now in the National League, meaning pitchers will hit. Though Greinke is a decent hitter, for a pitcher, this is still a lot more favorable for the pitchers than having to face a DH. Also, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the games at Houston. We've already seen what Sanchez can do. He first threw a no-hitter years ago and he almost had another in these playoffs. Greinke, meanwhile, is a Cy Young winner, as well as a 5-time Gold Glove winner. He's always well prepared and he's going to be ready when his team needs him most. Note that he has owned the Nationals and that his last seven starts against them have ALL produced five or fewer combined runs. More? The UNDER is 20-10 when the Astros were road favorites in the -110 to -150 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on Washington/Houston UNDER the total. Yesterday didn't result in the pitcher's duel that some might have expected. Today, however, we've got another world class pitching matchup and we're working with an even higher O/U line than yesterday. I expect the starters to steal center stage. Strasburg has dominated these entire playoffs. He's got a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, striking out 33, while walking only one, through 22 innings. Amazingly, that has actually hurt his career postseason ERA. That now sits at 1.10, right there among the all-time greats. While Verlander hasn't been as dominant as Strasburg, he's a proven playoff warrior and he's coming off a 21-6 season with a 2.58 ERA. His team desperately needs him and I expect the future Hall-Of-Famer to rise to the occasion. Expect both starters to bring it, the bats going quiet and the final score staying below the number. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Nationals have been on a special roll. However, the Astros are a special team. They've been here before and won't panic. True, Verlander hasn't been as dominant as Strasburg in these playoffs. That said, he's a proven postseason warrior and he's coming off a 21-6 season with a 2.58 ERA. His team desperately needs him and I expect the future Hall-Of-Famer to rise to the occasion. While the Nats were a modest 43-38 on the road this season, the Astros were a dominant 60-21 here. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing Washington on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) Obviously, Cole had an amazing season and the Astros have a great team. Scherzer is no slouch either though and the Nats are on a special roll of their own. While we have to go back several years, Scherzer's teams are 4-1 his last five against Houston, 2-0 his last two. Cole, meanwhile, is 1-2 his last three against Washington. The two losses came by scores of 6-1 and 6-0, too. While the Astros are 11-9 their last 20 against NL teams, the Nats are 14-6 their last 20 against teams from the American League. With runs likely to be at a premium, every extra run counts. I feel that getting an extra +1.5 of them for this price, with Scherzer on the mound, is providing excellent value. 

I'm playing on Washington/St. Louis OVER the total. While the two games at St. Louis were extremely low-scoring, I'm expecting the change of venue to wake the bats up. For one, it'll be considerably warmer. Friday's game at Busch was chilly, the coldest air there of the season, as a cold front had moved in. The Nats love hitting here, averaging 5.6 runs per game. Flaherty hasn't been as good away from home, either. The Cards saw Strasburg less than a month ago and scored a couple of runs, in five innings, against him. Strasburg walked four, while also giving up a home run. So, they've had some recent relative success against him. Flaherty's lone start vs. the Nats saw him walk five in five innings. The OVER is 6-2-3 the past 2+ seasons when the Cards played a game with an O/U line of less than 7.5. That includes a 4-1-1 OVER mark away from Busch. Look for those stats to improve Monday. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. No need for the Astros to panic. They've been here before. They're still at home and they've got a future Hall-Of-Famer on the mound. Verlander, 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA on the season, dominated the Yankees in a pair of 2017 playoff starts. While Verlander is extremely battle-tested, Paxton has only made one postseason start; he's got a poor 5.79 ERA to show for it. When the Astros faced Paxton, here at Houston, back in April, they scored five runs against him. With Verlander on the mound, they shouldn't need that many this time. Expect them to dig deep and find a way to even up the series.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros were tested more than many expected in the opening round. That may actually serve them well here though, in my opinion. They've had their "wake up call" and are ready to go. The last four times that he's faced NY, a span of 26 2/3 innings, Greinke has allowed 2, 1, 3 and 2 runs. Simply put, Tanaka hasn't been good on the road. In fact, in 15 road starts, he's got an ugly 6.16 ERA. By comparison, Greinke has a 3.55 ERA at home. Tanaka has a 1.407 WHIP on the road, averaging 5.4 innings. Greinke has a 1.048 WHIP at home, averaging 6.4 innings. The Yanks are just 28-43 as road underdogs past 2+ seasons, 6-13 their last 19. That includes an ugly 3-12 (-8) mark the past 15 times that they were road underdogs in the +100 to +150 range. With the Astros a dominating 21-4 the past 25 times that they played with a day off in between games, I'm laying the wood with Greinke. 

I'm playing on LA. Playing at home, with Scherzer on the mound and with Rich Hill on the mound for LA, I successfully backed the Nationals last game. However, I'm going against them here. I'm well aware that Strasburg has been a playoff beast. He's got a 1.00 ERA in two postseason appearances this season and a 0.64 career postseason ERA. Admittedly, thats tough to go against. Buehler is the right man for the job. I backed him in the Dodgers opener and he rewarded me with six shutout innings, giving him a 0.00 ERA for the current postseason. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say about Buehler before that game: "... Many will be surprised to see Buehler instead of Kershaw, or Ryu. The Dodgers have faith in for good reason though. He's 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.89 WHIP on the season - much better than his road stats. He's also a dominant 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.97 WHIP when pitching during the evening. Again, much better than his daytime stats. You may recall the last time that Buehler was on the mound for a postseason game. That was Game 3 of last year's World Series. All he did was toss seven shutout innings...." Once again, Buehler is on his home mound while pitching during the evening. Unlike Strasburg, Buehler is pitching on regular rest. While the Nats used Straburg out of the pen earlier, that (obviously) won't be an option here. Likewise, Scherzer came out of the pen into a relief role. However, thats not going to be an option, at least one wouldn't think, after he gave the Nats all he had on Monday. They also tried #3 starter Corbin out of the pen but that didn't go well. In other words, their "anti-bullpen" strategy won't be an option here. Again, Strasburg is working on less than optimal rest. That means that the Nats bullpen may well come into play - and thats been a weak spot all season long. Collectively, Washington relievers have a 5.75 ERA, roughly two runs higher than LA relievers. Its been a great run for the Nats but it comes to an end here.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals were 19-8 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range this season. Facing elimination, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. True, Scherzer came out of the bullpen on two day's rest in Game 2. (He struck out the side in eighth.) I believe he'll be ready to go though. His team needs him and I expect the longtime ace to rise to the occasion. The last time that the Nats saw Rich Hill was in May. They beat him 6-0. We've seen this team pull an epic comeback only a week ago. They're resilient. Don't count them out quite yet. 

I'm playing on Houston/TB UNDER the total. Greinke finished the season at 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA. In his final regular season start, he took a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Morton was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA in the reg. season. At home, his ERA dipped to 2.59. He allowed a single unearned run in five innings in the Wild Card game. With the victory, he became the first pitcher in MLB history to win three "winner-take-all games." So, he knows a thing or two about pitching in October. The UNDER is 4-2 the past six times that the Astros tried to close out a series and 6-2 the past eight times that TB was facing elimination in a playoff game. Look for a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing Atlanta on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Off a tough loss yesterday, the Braves are going to be desperate in this one. This is a very talented and determined team and I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. While I do expect them to win outright, we already saw a 1-run game yesterday. In this type of series, the value of an extra +1.5 runs can't be overstated. Yes, Flaherty has been on a major roll - I won with the Cards (-1.5) the last time that he pitched. He hasn't been that dominant here at Atlanta though. His lone 2019 start here saw him allow three runs in six innings. A quality start but not outstanding. Note that he walked five in that game. Also, in his previous start here (09/18) he gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Don't let his season stats fool you, Foltynewicz has been extremely stingy for some time now, as he's quietly gone 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA his last 10 starts. In his last home start, he tossed eight shutout innings. Last time he faced the Cards, he allowed a single unearned run through six complete, winning 5-2. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the desperate Braves. 

I'm playing on TB/Houston UNDER the total. What more can you say about Verlander? The guy is a machine and he just keeps getting it done. He's off one of his best seasons ever, going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300 K's. At home, he had a 2.43 ERA and 0.843 WHIP, the UNDER going 12-4-1. Not to be outdone, Glasnow has a dynamite 0.55 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in six road starts. Opposing batters hit a mere .142 in those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 4-1-1. Glasnow held the Astros to one run in his lone start against them, a 3-1 final. Meanwhile, Verlander allowed just a single combined run in two starts against Tampa this season. He's held the Rays to two or fewer earned runs seven of the past eight times that he's faced them. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on St. Louis/Atlanta UNDER the total. I really like the way that both these starters finished the season. Keuchel had a stellar 2.55 ERA his final nine starts. He's been much better at home and he's got plenty of postseason experience. Mikolas had a 3.37 ERA his final three starts and a 3.03 ERA his last six. In his final reg. season start, he allowed two runs, only one of them earned, through eight complete innings. The Cards won 3-2. Mikolas has made three career starts vs. the Braves, allowing three, two and one earned run, a total of just six through 18 1/3 combined innings. During that span, he struck out 16 while walking only two. The Cards have seen the majority of their games finish below the total this season. Their most recent three with the Braves had combined scores of 7, 9 and 7. While I respect the lineup and the park, I feel that this number is generously high. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Washington/Milwaukee UNDER the total. Scherzer hasn't enjoyed much postseason success for the Nats. I expect that to change here though. He faces the Brewers, without Yelich, a team he's held to one or fewer earned runs seven of eight times. In three career home starts vs. the Brewers, he's allowed just three combined earned runs. His lone 2019 start against them saw him allow a single earned run through six complete, striking out 10 against a single walk. Woodruff has also enjoyed success against Washington. In two career starts against the Nats, he's allowed two runs, on only six hits, in 13 combined innings, striking out 17 against just one walk. One of those games was against Scherzer and the final score was 3-2. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Cards need Flaherty for this one, rather than saving him for their first postseason start. I feel that they're in good hands, given that he's got an absolutely dominant 1.05 ERA since the All-Star Break. Holland, meanwhile, is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA as a starter this season. That likely means its Flaherty vs. a lot of Cubs' relievers. In 11 daytime starts this season, the Cards' starter has a 1.64 ERA, opposing batters hitting .197. I'll take Flaherty and the Cards to come through when they need to, winning this one by multiple runs. 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Mahle may not have a great record, OK its pretty bad, but he's fighting for a spot in next year's rotation and he's coming off a gem. Last time out, he limited the Cubs to a single hit through six innings. He's got a relatively respectable 1.30 WHIP here at home. While Lyles may be having success with Milwaukee, lets not completely forget that he had a 9.57 ERA his final nine starts with Pittsburgh; the last time he faced the Reds he lost 11-6. Mahle, who won't have to contend with Yelich, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all three career starts against the Brewers. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" for the home team. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Stuck in Cincinnati, some may not realize that Gray is having a very special year. Last time out, he allowed just four hits through 6 2/3 innings. After allowing five or fewer hits in every August start, he's now allowed four or fewer hits in ever Sept. start. In fact, he's now gone an incredible 32 consecutive starts without allowing more than six hits. Thats a new MLB record, breaking the one previously held by Nolan Ryan. The Brewers know all about how nasty Gray can be. He's 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four starts against them. Houser doesnt go deep into games and has a 4.42 ERA on the road. Given the matchup, I feel that the price could easily be higher. Reds roll. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Means has been tough at home all season (2.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and he's making his final home start here. I expect him to outpitch Gonzales, who has a 4.10 ERA and 1.419 WHIP on the road. Gonzales has started against the O's twice (both in 2017) and he allowed nine earned runs, on 17 hits, in just 7 2/3 innings. Look for the O's to take advantage of a rare favorable matchup, moving to 48-36 (+4.1) the past 2+ seasons, when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -150 range.

I'm playing on NY/Cincy UNDER the total. Needless to say, this should be a very well-pitched affair. The Mets send de Grom to the mound and he's got a 2.14 ERA his past three starts and a 2.53 ERA in 14 road starts overall. In five career starts vs. the Reds, de Grom has allowed a total of six earned runs, 0 in either of the last two. He went at least six innings in each too, a perfect 5-for-5 in terms of quality starts. In his past two against the Reds, de Grom has recorded 16 K's through 13 scorelss innings, walking just three and permitting only seven hits. Meanwhile, Castillo has faced the Mets twice and he allowed just two earned runs each time. Castillo has a 2.93 ERA here at home to go along with a 0.968 WHIP. The UNDER is 11-6-1 in his home starts, 19-9-2 overall. The Reds have scored four runs or less in six straight games and 10 of their last 11. Expect runs to be at a premium once again. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Musgrove leads the Pirates in strikeouts, as well as innings and starts. He's got a solid 1.22 WHIP on the season. Kikuchi, on the other hand, leads the entire majors in HRs (36) allowed by a rookie. In fact, thats the most ever allowed by a rookie! He's 3-9 with a 6.80 ERA his last 19 starts. Last time out, he gave up 10 hits (5 earned runs) in just 2 1/3 innings. Pirates bounce back, big. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Talk about consistent. Bieber has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 straight. Remarkably, he's recorded at least seven K's in every one of those games, too. Last time out, he struck out eight, while limiting the Angels to a single run, lasting seven complete. He's 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in September and he's got a 2.58 ERA and 0.94 WHIP his last 15 starts. He's been at his best (2.61 ERA and 0.84 WHIP) in day games all season, opposing batters hitting .192. The Twins, meanwhile, will go with an opener, Dobnak starting things off. After losing both yesterday, the Indians bounce back.

I'm playing on NY (10* PERS FAV). While the Dodgers took yesterday's Kershaw/Syndergaard matchup, the Mets have the advantage in this one.  In fact, in terms of current form, this a mismatch. Ryu, making his first start since 9/4, has an ugly 9.95 ERA his past four starts. On the other hand, de Grom is in Cy Young form, as he looks to take down the award again. Last time out, he allowed one run through seven complete innings, striking out 11. Look for de Grom to get the better of Ryu, as the Mets bounce back. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs). Gibson is back and I expect the mini break to have served him well. He's 8-3 with a 1.19 WHIP at home, much better than his 1.54 WHIP on the road. While Corbin has had a strong season overall, a closer look reveals that he's 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the road, compared to 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA at home. Also, he walked six batters in five innings last time out, which is rather disturbing. The Twins have been tough at home all year. Look for them to close out the homestand with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on KC/Chicago UNDER the total. Lopez was outstanding last time out. In fact, he tossed a complete-game, allowing just one run on only one hit, while striking out 11. The final score was 7-1. In his last home start, Lopez tossed five shutout innings, allowing zero hits. The final score was 2-0. Two of Lopez's last three against the Royals have seen him allow one run through six complete innings. The most recent of those came in a h2h matchup vs. Sparkman. That one finished with a final score of 5-2, both starters delivering quality. Sparkman has faced the Sox since then and he tossed a complete-game shutout. With the starters picking up where they left off last time they saw each other, look for the UNDER to improve to 20-9-1 the past 30 times that KC played a road game with an O/U line of 10 or 10.5.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Sox followed up a 5-1 win over the Angels with a 7-3 win in yesterday's series opener against KC. I expect them to make it three in a row today. Lopez was outstanding last time out. In fact, he tossed a complete-game, allowing just one run on only one hit, while striking out 11. The final score was 7-1. In his last home start, Lopez tossed five shutout innings, allowing zero hits. The final score was 2-0. Two of Lopez's last three against the Royals have seen him allow one run through six complete innings. The most recent of those came in a h2h matchup vs. Sparkman. Chicago won. In fact, the two have gone h2h twice this season and the Sox won both. Given that Sparkman has a 9.76 ERA and 1.991 WHIP on the road, I expect Lopez and the Sox to finish on top, once again. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Twins the last time that Berrios was on the mound. So, I'm aware that he hasn't been quite his best of late. However, that was at Fenway. He delivered a quality start in his preivous outing. He's still got a respectable 3.62 ERA at home. Facing the Nats for the first time, I expect him to bounce back and give the Twins a solid performance. While Berrios will be making his first start against Washington, Sanchez has made many starts against the Twins. The last two saw his team lose by scores of 9-4 and 5-1. The Twins are a lucrative 38-17 (+16.7) off a loss and they're 28-13 (+10.5) after having lost two of their last three. Look for them to bounce back and start the series with a win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. While I lost with the Reds yesterday, I'm coming right back with them this afternoon. Desclafani should be happy to see the Diamondbacks. Desclafani's past two starts against Arizona resulted in victories of 3-0 and 13-0. Through 16 shutout innings, Desclafani recorded 18 K's while only allowing seven hits and one walk. On the other hand, Leake likely won't be too happy to see the Reds. Indeed, his teams are 0-8 in his eight career starts against the Reds, Leake personally going 0-5. With Desclafani also in excellent current form, look for the Reds to respond. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves send Teheran to the mound and he's got a stellar 2.73 ERA his last 22 starts. Over his last three starts, he's allowed just two combined runs through 19 complete innings. Voth, who is expected to be on a pitch count, will be the facing the Braves for the second time. Thats the first time that a team will have seen him twice and I expect that to favor the hitters. With Voth not expected to go deep, note that the Washington bullpen has been a weak spot all season, with a combined ERA close to six. Teheran has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts against the Nats, including four straight. Braves roll. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Sox yesterday and I'm coming right back with them in this evening's finale. Eovaldi has been working himself back into form. Last time out, he allowed only one run, on just three hits, striking out eight. While Eovaldi can't be counted on to go too deep into the game, Rodriguez gave the bullpen a bit of a break yesterday, going seven complete. For what its worth, the last time Eovaldi faced the Twins (last July) he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits without walking a batter. While Eovaldi is getting stronger, Perez is going the other way. Despite facing the normally light-hitting Tigers, he got rocked for eight runs (7 earned) in three innings, last time out. Also, in his last two starts at Fenway, Perez has allowed a combined 14 runs (10 earned) in just 10 1/3 innings. Needless to say, his team lost both. Boston rolls. 

I'm playing on SF/STL UNDER the total. While these teams combined for 17 runs yesterday, I don't expect to see even half that many this afternoon. The "under" has been money in Cardinal day games. On the season, the UNDER is 27-15-5 when the Cards played during the afternoon. Going back further finds the UNDER at 85-66-8 in St. Louis day games, the past 2+ seasons. Hudson (14-6, 3.53 ERA) has had a great year and he's currently in outstanding form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.77 ERA. Over that 20+ inning span, he allowed a mere four runs. Webb has a solid 3.53 ERA through three starts and he allowed just a single run last time out. Prior to yesterday's slug-fest, the teams had combined for just five runs through the first two games. Look for this afternoon's finale to return to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Twins took yesterday's game but I expect the Sox to bounce back here. Rodriguez is 16-5 on the season including 10-1 (3.17 ERA) his last 15. The Sox won 9-4 in June in Rodriguez's previous 2019 start against Minnesota. While he did allow three runs last time out, that was at Coors. In his previous two starts, Rodriguez allowed 0 combined runs through 14 1/3 innings. Berrios, on the other hand, has a 5.44 ERA his last seven starts. Over his last three starts, he's given up 24 hits, while also walking seven, in just 15 2/3 innings. Thats roughly two baserunners per inning, which will catch up with him here. While it hasn't been his fault, the Twins are still 1-3 in Berrios' four career starts vs. the Sox, 0-2 here at Fenway. Boston bounces back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's are a profitable 27-10 (+10.7) as home favorites of -150 or greater. Going back further finds them at 52-19 (+20.8) in that role the past 2+ seasons. With one of baseball's hottest pitchers on the mound, expect them to improve on those stats this evening. Fiers is now 11-0 with a 2.40 ERA his past 20 starts. The A's are 13-2 the past 15 times that he's taken the mound, a perfect 7-0 the past seven. While Fiers has a 2.40 ERA at home, Barria is 2-6 (nine games, 7 starts) with an 8.24 ERA on the road. Fiers has made four starts against the Angels since 2018. He's 3-0 in those games, his team is 4-0. The scores were 7-2, 7-4, 4-0 and 6-1. Fiers allowed, 1, 3, 0 and 1 runs. Expect Fiers' remarkable run to continue, the A's again finishing on top. 

I'm playing on Det/KC UNDER the total. Two of the weakest offenses in baseball here. While the Tigers are the lowest scoring team in the majors, the Royals aren't much better. They rank 27th, in terms of runs scored per game. These teams are 28th and 29th in terms of home runs, only Miami hits less. Montgomery is off a gem but got stuck with a 2-1 loss for his efforts. His last three starts have all fallen below the total. He's got a 2.49 ERA at home. Montgomery faced the Tigers a few weeks ago and it was one of the best starts of his career. He allowed just four hits through seven shutout innings. He didnt walk a single batter and he recorded 12 strike outs. The final score was 7-0. While Norris has only been going a few innings recently, he's been dynamite while he's in there. He's got a 1.00 ERA his past three starts. Four of Norris' past five starts against the Royals have produced five or fewer combined runs. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While Happ hasn't had the season that he had hoped for, there's still time to finish strong. Keep in mind that he was 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in five September starts last season. The previous September, Happ was 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. In 2016? He was 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA. In 2015? He was 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA. Thats a 12-2 record the past four Septembers, excellent numbers in each of those months. His teams are 17-5 his last 22 Sept. starts. While Happ did lose at Oakland a couple of starts ago, Happ bounced back with a better effort last time out. In fact, he only allowed two hits while striking out seven. Also, Happ's teams are still 7-2 his last nine starts against Oakland, a perfect 3-0 when not playing at Oakland. Happ's teams won those games by a combined score of 19-6. Catching the A's at the end of a road trip, expect Happ to better than he was at Oakland, the Yanks closing out the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Rays won a wild 9-8 affair against Houston yesterday, using seven pitchers in the process. The Indians, on the other hand, needed only two pitchers in their 2-0 victory at Detroit, Clevinger giving them eight complete innings. The Indians will again have the edge in the starting pitching department here while Tampa's depleted bullpen may also become a factor. Bieber is having a great season and he continues to be extremely consistent. He delivers quality start after quality start and has a stellar 2.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP his last seven. He's averaged better than seven innings over those seven starts, too. On the season, he's 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.81 WHIP on the road. Opposing hitters are batting .180! While Bieber has a 2.57 ERA in August, Pruitt has a 5.40 ERA (all in relief) on the month. Making his first start of the season, he's highly unlikely to match Bieber, in terms of innings, or in terms of quality. In Bieber's last two starts against TB, he allowed just one combined run, while striking out 21. The Indians won 3-1 and 2-0. Expect them to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on Oakland/KC UNDER the total. Yesterday's game snuck over the total, finishing with 10 combined runs. This afternoon, we're working with a higher O/U number, yet I expect a lower combined score. Bassitt is having a very solid season and he's in excellent current form. He's got a 2.41 ERA his past three starts and a 2.81 mark his past seven. In 11 day games this season, he's 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA. Bassitt's last two starts against KC came in 2018 and 2016. He pitched very well in each of those allowing one run in seven innings and two runs in seven innings. Through the 14 innings, he gave up just eight combined hits. The final scores were 2-0 and 3-2. Sparkman has had some trouble on the road. However, he's been stingy here at home. Through eight home starts, he's got a 2.77 ERA and 0.981 WHIP, averaging 6 1/2 innings per start here. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Even with yesterday's result, the Phillies are 39-29 at home compared to the Pirates' 27-39 mark on the road. Keller was tough last time out. However, the rookie still has a very poor 7.24 ERA and 1.83 WHIP on the season and he's going to be facing a desperate Phillies team. In three road starts, Keller has a terrible 9.75 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .400 against him in those games! Velasquez can be inconsistent at times but he's also capable of dominating hitters; he strikes out more than one per inning. He's got a solid 1.19 WHIP at home this season. I say the Phillies bounce back. 

I'm playing on NY/Seattle UNDER the total. Facing a fellow countryman, both today's starters may be a little extra motivated for this one. Kikuchi comes in on a high. Last time out, he tossed a complete game 2-hit shutout, striking out eight along the way. Tanaka will be happy to see the Mariners. He's made nine career appearances against Seattle. He's gone six or more innings in all nine, more than six in all but one. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of those nine starts, four in the other. In other words, eight quality starts out of nine and the other wasn't terrible. In his most recent three starts against the M's, Tanaka has allowed just three combined runs (2,0,1) in 21 1/3 innings. Overall, he struck out 68 while walking just seven, in those nine starts against Seattle. Not surprisingly, seven of those fell below the number. This one will too. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Cards won big yesterday. However, I expect the Brewers, who have a starter in much better current form, to bounce back today. Houser has a stellar 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP his past three starts. In his most recent home start, he allowed only one run on just three hits, striking out 10. Mikolas, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.44 ERA his past three starts, giving up five long balls. On the season, he's got a poor 6.54 ERA on the road, averaging just five innings. Last time he started here at Milwaukee, he served up three home runs in five innings. In 17 1/3 total innings here, he's given up six home runs. Milwaukee has been money, when off a division loss as a favorite, going 22-5 its last 27 in that situation. With Houser outlasting Mikolas, expect the Brewers to improve to 38-17, their past 55, when playing with revenge from a game in which they were favored. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds lost 9-8 at Pittsburgh yesterday while the Marlins won 3-2 against Philadelphia. Expect the Reds to have the advantage in this one though. These same two starters opposed each other back in the spring. The Reds won 5-0. Grey allowed 0 runs, Lopez allowed four, in just 4 2/3 innings. Gray has made two starts against the Marlins since 2017, allowing just one combined run through 11 innings. During that span, he's recorded an impressive 17 K's against just one walk. His team won those games by a combined score of 9-1. Gray has a 0.53 ERA his last three starts, all of them Cincy wins; Lopez is making his first start in more than two months. Reds roll. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Musgrove had one really bad inning last time out but was otherwise solid. In his previous start, he delivered a gem. Through seven complete innings, Musgrove allowed just two runs, on only four hits. Musgrove was also very sharp the only time that he faced the Phillies, a little over a month ago. In fact, he allowed only a single unearned run through six complete innings, giving up a mere two hits, while striking out eight. Vargas has made four starts since joining the Phillies and he's allowed two earned runs in three of them. Here, he'll face a Pirate team which ranks right near the bottom of the league in OPS (0.682) vs. southpaws. In 11 "home" starts this season, Vargas' got a 2.43 ERA, the UNDER going 9-1-1. If including last season, the UNDER improves to 16-1-1 the past 18 times that Vargas pitched in his home park. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Anytime that I take an extra +1.5 runs with a team, I have to also like that team's chances of winning outright. Thats absolutely the case here. After getting embarrassed 11-0 yesterday, the Padres are going to be in an angry mood, determined to bounce back. Eovaldi returned to the rotation last week and it didn't go well. In just two innings, he allowed five earned runs, walking three times as many batters as he struck out. Lamet, on the other hand, has a stellar 2.50 ERA in three August starts. Over that 18-inning span, he's recorded an impressive 25 K's. Lamet missed all of last season and struggled when he first came back. However, you can see that he's throwing the ball very well now based on his August numbers. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Sox have struggled against NL teams this season. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one, Lamet and the Padres coming away with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The ChiSox grabbed yesterday's opener but I expect the Rangers to even the series this evening. While he doesn't have anything but losses to show for it, Lynn has pitched well recently. He's got a 2.65 ERA his last three starts. Really, he's been very solid all season; on the road Lynn has a 3.17 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. Including a win against Chicago back in June, he's 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Sox. His team is 3-0 in the last three of those, 5-1 the past six. On the other hand, Cease is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA his last seven starts. In 44 innings, he's served up 10 home runs, five on the road and five here at home. With the Sox just 28-47 the past 75 times that they were off two or more consec. wins and 39-66 their last 105, after allowing two or fewer runs, I'm backing the visitors. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. With this game being played at St. Louis, I expect the Cards to have the advantage. Mikolas has faced the Rockies twice, both of those starts coming last season. He really struggled at Coors, giving up 12 hits and four earned runs, through 4 2/3 innings. However, he excelled in the game here at St. Louis, giving up just one earned run through seven complete. Thats not surprising, if you look at his home/away stats. This season, Mikolas has an ugly 6.54 ERA on the road but a sparkling 2.43 ERA here at home. (Last season, he was 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA here!) Marquez, who has a 4.71 ERA this season, has had success against the Cards, at Colorado, but hasn't pitched here at St. Louis. While the Rockies, who rested Arenado yesterday, are well back in the West, the Cards are in a battle in the Central. They're 19-7 (+11) their last 26 against sub-500 teams and I look for them to take care of business here. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Yesterday's loss was a costly one for the Sox. They know that they have very little margin for error. I expect them to bounce right back today, as I believe that these two starters are currently going in opposite directions. Porcello, admittedly, has struggled this season. However, two of his last three starts have been gems. Last time out, he allowed a single run through six innings. Smyly has been even worse than Porcello overall. Importantly, unlike Porcello, he's not showing signs of getting any better. He gave up five runs in his last start and he's served up five long balls in his past two starts alone. He's got an 8.04 ERA his past three, compared to Porcello's 3.71 mark. Though he had previously pitched well here, Smyly got roughed up in his most recent start here at Fenway. That was in August of 2016 though, a game which saw him give up five runs in five innings, his team losing 8-6. Porcello last faced the Phillies almost exactly one year ago and he was dominant. He allowed just one run through seven complete innings, giving up a mere two hits (0 walks) while striking out 10. His teams are 3-1 over his career against Philadelphia, 2-0 when he's at home. Boston responds. 

I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I said that I expected runs to be at a premium yesterday and the final score was 4-1. I'm expecting another relatively well-pitched affair this afternoon. Corbin (3.34 ERA) is off back-to-back stellar starts. Last time out, he allowed one run through six complete. He'll face a Pirate team which struggles (29th in OPS) vs. southpaws. Musgrove also checks in off a gem. Through seven complete innings, he allowed just two runs, on only four hits. With nine K's against 0 walks in that one, his confidence level is arguably as high as its been all season. He struck out nine Washington batters, while allowing two runs, the lone time he faced the Nats. Corbin's last start here at Pittsburgh was a 2-1 final score, Corbin striking out 12 without walking a batter. I'm going with the Under. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Quantrill has pitched well of late. However, Gray has been even better. In fact, he's got a 0.00 ERA his last three starts. The Reds were 3-0 in those games, winning by a combined score of 18-6. The majority of Quantrill's success has come at Petco. On the road, he's got a 4.57 ERA. Its true that San Diego has now won three straight. However, it should also be noted that the Padres are just 11-25 (-13) the past 2+ seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games. The Reds are 12-4 when playing with 'revenge,' from a game where they were listed as home favorites. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. After trips to Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park, a home game vs. the Royals is going to sound pretty good to the Orioles. KC has a 20-41 road record, tied with Detroit for worst in the majors. Lopez has done his part as he's 1-7 with a 6.51 ERA overall. Means, on the other hand, has a 3.12 ERA and 1.058 WHIP at home. Off b2b tough starts against the Yankees, he knows this is an opportunity he needs to make the most of.  Expect him to do so, the O's bouncing back and starting the homestand with a much needed win. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Pittsburgh OVER the total. The bats have been quiet in this series but I expect that to change this evening. Keller has an ugly 7.94 ERA and 2.00 WHIP through four starts. All four produced a minimum of nine runs, the OVER going 2-0-2. The Pirates saw Quintana twice in July. While he was relatively solid, both games still produced double-digits in runs, an 8-3 final and an 11-3 final. Including those results, the OVER is a healthy 21-9 when the Pirates have faced a southpaw starter. Overall, even factoring in the past couple of low-scoring games, excluding pushes, the OVER is still 69-47 in Pittsburgh games overall. Both previous "Little League Classics" produced a minimum of nine runs. I expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Twins took yesterday's game but I expect the Rangers to respond this afternoon. Lynn has allowed just one earned run in three straight starts, good for a sparkling 1.42 ERA. While Perez did bounce back with a strong start last time out, he's still got a poor 5.82 ERA his past three. Its also worth mentioning that he walked more (4) than he struck out (3) last time out. While Lynn, a former Twin, will start against Minnesota for the first time, the Rangers already had a look at Perez last month. The Rangers have thrived as favorites. No sweep here!

I'm playing TAMPA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) This one's a major mismatch. Yarbrough is 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA overall. In six starts, his ERA dips to 3.16 to go along with a sparkling 0.75 WHIP. He's averaged better than seven innings in those starts, too, striking out 32 while walking only four. Last time out, he tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout, striking out eight without walking a batter. In fact, in his last two starts, he's gone 15 innings without allowing a run. Conversely, Zimmerman is 1-8 with a 7.13 ERA on the season. He just had to receive a nerve block injection last week, as he was dealing with a cervical spasm. Needless to say, thats less than ideal. Rays roll. 

I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. With a 10-2 record and a 2.32 ERA, Soroka has been outstanding all season. Last time out, he allowed just three hits through seven shutout innings. Maeda was also excellent last time out. In fact, through seven shutout innings, he too allowed just three hits. He struck out six without walking a batter. The final score was 4-0. While Soroka will start against the Dodgers for the first time, Maeda has made two starts against the Braves. Those games came in 2016 and 2017. They finished with scores of 3-2 and 4-2, Maeda allowing just one combined earned run through 13 1/3 combined innings. The Dodgers gave up 13 runs yesterday, after giving up just one in each of the previous two games. The UNDER is 11-4-2 the past 2+ seasons, when they were off a game where they allowed double-digits in runs. With both starters off a gem, I expect those stats to improve here.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Reds yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again this evening. Castillo has been outstanding all season (11-4, 2.69 ERA) and he's got a 1.50 ERA in two starts against the Cards. He's allowed one earned run or less in four straight against the Cards since last season, two earned runs or less in five straight against them. On the season, Castillo's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.941 WHIP at home. Wainwright, on the other hand, has a 6.79 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. While Castillo has only allowed five combined runs in his last five starts against the Cards, Wainwright allowed seven in last month's start against the Reds, a span of just 3 1/3 innings. The Reds have fared well as home favorites of this size and I look for them to get it done again here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds will have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Gray is in dominant current form. Over his past three starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA. The Reds won those three games by a combined score of 27-11. Over his past seven starts, Gray's ERA dips to 1.59, to go along with a 0.93 WHIP. In fact, Gray hasn't allowed a single run his past two starts, a span of 13 innings. Last time out, he held the Cubs to two hits, none through the first four innings. Gray should get plenty of run support once again as Wacha is in poor current form. Over his past three starts, Wacha has a 7.71 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. Last time out, he gave up six earned runs in four innings. Look for Gray to outpitch and outlast Wacha, en route to a victory for the home team. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Keller averages 6 2/3 innings per home start and he's got a 3.51 ERA and 1.136 WHIP here. Opposing batters hit .214 against him here. Those are pretty solid numbers. By comparison, Hudson has a 4.45 ERA and 1.632 WHIP on the road, where he averages 5 1/3 innings. Keller faced the Cards earlier this season. He was excellent in that 5/22 start, as he allowed just two hits and two runs through seven complete innings, winning 8-2. I expect AT LEAST another 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the Padres' chances of winning this one 'outright,' I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. Lauer has struggled on the road but he's got a solid 2.89 ERA here at home. The Padres have won five of his past six starts here. McKay can hit, so thats one advantage that he has. However, he also has a 5.79 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break. Opposing batters are hitting .313 against him in those games. Expect Lauer and the Padres to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Rays are on a roll and they've dominated the Padres when these teams have met over recent years. However, I expect that all to change tonight. Lucchesi is 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP here at PetCo. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .186 against him here. While Lucchesi won't be giving us a complete game, he will be sticking around a lot longer than Castillo, who will serve as an 'opener' for the Rays in this one. Austin Pruitt will likely follow and he's got a 5.16 ERA on the season. The Padres, who just took three of four from Colorado, urgently need to get hot and sweep this series. While that may prove difficult, I do expect them to take tonight's opener. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Washington UNDER the total. Fedde was excellent last time out. Not only did the former first round draft pick toss six shutout innings but he also didn't issue a single free pass. That was significant as walks had been an issue in his previous start. Thats exactly the type of start Fedde needed and he should carry the positive momentum to the mound with him this evening. DeSclafani, who had a 2.78 ERA in four July starts, should be thrilled to see the Nationals. In seven career appearances against the Nats, he's 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA. Four of those were starts and all four of them stayed below the total. DeSclafani allowed two or fewer earned runs in each. Expect a relatively well-pitched affair which falls beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on Philly/SF OVER the total. This series has alternated between low-scoring and high-scoring games. A low-scoring 5-0 game was followed by a high-scoring 9-6 game before yesterday's 3-1 final. I expect the pattern to continue and for the bats to come alive on Sunday Night Baseball. Its surely got a lot to do with the bone spur issue in his elbow, but Arrieta isn't what he used to be. He hasn't gone six complete innings since back in June. He's averaged five innings in his starts since that time. He's got a 4.46 ERA on the road, opposing batters hitting .296. Meanwhile, Menez has a 5.73 ERA through two starts. Look for this one to hit "double-digits." Play the OVER.

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Jays won yesterday but I expect the Yankees to respond this afternoon. Tanaka figures to be happy about the opponent and the starting time. Thats because he's struggled when pitching during the evening. In fact, in 12 starts under the lights, he's 1-4 with a poor 6.15 ERA. However, in 11 daytime starts, he's 6-2 with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Tanaka should get some decent run support. Thornton got rocked last time out, giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings. For the season, he's 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA in nine starts here at Toronto. Thornton has faced the Yankees twice and has allowed nine combined earned runs in just 8 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Tanaka has gone a minimum of six complete innings in each of his past five starts against the Jays. In the five games combined, he allowed just eight earned runs, his team winning four of those. Yanks bounce back. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. A month ago, Odorizzi came off the disabled list and got the better of Bauer. At the time, the Twins moved 7.5 games ahead of the Indians. With things now much tighter, Odorizzi gets the call for the Indians, once again. This time, he's up against Plutko, who's in there due to the trade of Bauer. Odorizzie has allowed just one earned run in each of his past two starts. He's 12-5 on the season, 6-1 (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) here at home. Plutko has a 4.55 ERA on the season and a 5.03 ERA for his career. On the road this season, he's got a 5.31 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .322. I say Odorizzi and the Twins finish on top, again. 

I'm playing on Colorado/SD UNDER the total. Lauer has been money for 'under' bettors recently. In fact, his last six starts have all fallen below the total. Last time out, he held the Dodgers to two runs, on only three hits, through six complete innings. He struck out six without walking a batter. While that was on the road, he's also got a stellar 2.66 ERA in nine home starts, a 2.60 ERA at home overall. (Conversely, he's got a 6.20 ERA on the road.) In his lone home start against the Rockies, Lauer allowed a single unearned runs through five innings of no-hit ball. The final score was 3-2. Gray also likes pitching at PetCo. Indeed, he's got a 2.44 ERA in eight starts here. In four starts here since 2017, he's allowed one run in seven innings, two runs in six innings, 0 runs through seven innings and 1 run through six innings. That adds up to just four combined runs through 26 innings. Expect another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona UNDER the total. Yesterday's game saw plenty of offense but I expect a much different type of game this evening. Gallen will be making his debut for the Dbax. He's going to be hungry for a big effort. He's made seven starts this season and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of them. Last time out, he held the Twins to just four hits and two runs, while striking out eight, through seven complete innings. He was even better in his previous start, striking out nine through seven shutout innings, giving up a mere two hits. In fact, he's got a 1.85 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break, opposing hitters batting .157. Vargas was very solid in his Phillies debut, giving them a quality start with two earned runs allowed through six complete. He struck out five against just one walk, giving up five hits. Look for a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the number. 

I'm playing BOSTON on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Royals jumped all over the Red Sox, right out of the gate, in yesterday's game. I expect the opposite to be true in the series finale. Rodriguez, 13-5 on the season, is 9-2 his last 13 starts. That includes a 6-1 mark in 11 home starts. The Sox are 16-4 his last 20 here, 12 of those 16 wins coming by multiple runs. He was 5-0 with a 2.03 ERA in July. The Sox won Rodriguez's last two starts against the Royals by scores of 8-3 and 10-6. Sparkman is 3-7 with a 5.58 ERA. On the road, he's 0-4 with a terrible 9.08 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .344 against him, when he pitches away from KC. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After last night's walk-off home run winner, the Twins bring plenty of momentum into this evening's game. With an advantage on the mound, I expect the Twins' positive momentum to carry over. Berrios was outstanding in his last start, again. Through seven shutout innings, he allowed just two hits, both of them singles. He also recorded 11 K's without walking a batter. He's now got a 0.92 ERA his last three starts! On the season, he's got a 2.10 ERA through nine home starts, averaging a healthy 6 2/3 innings in his starts here. Foltynewicz, on the other hand, was so bad that he got demoted to the minors. This will be his first big league start since June. Prior to the demotion, he had a 7.80 ERA and 1.867 WHIP his previous three starts and a 6.55 ERA through four road starts overall. Given the matchup, the Twins could easily be favored by more. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds won yesterday and they'll have the edge again today. Desclafani has a 2.81 ERA (1.187 WHIP) his past three starts and a 2.94 ERA at home for the season. Suarez has a 5.70 ERA through five road starts and a 6.24 ERA his last three starts overall. The Reds have been solid as home favorites in this range and I feel that they're offering excellent value at this price. Cincy rolls. 

I'm playing on Det/Chi UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a high-scoring series at Chicago, last month. However, I expect this evening's opener at Detroit to be considerably lower-scoring. The Tigers have now scored four runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games, including each of their past three. They average a mere 3.6 runs per game, tied with the Marlins for worst in the league. The White Sox aren't much better. In fact, they're 4.1 runs per game ranks third last, ahead of only Miami and Detroit. Last time out, Giolito allowed just one run through seven complete innings. The final score was 4-2. On the season, he's got a stellar 2.75 ERA in 10 road starts. Giolito has made two career starts at Detroit. Both were quality. The last time that he pitched here, he allowed just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. The final score was 6-1. Turnbull will be making his first start since coming off the injured list. So, he'll be on a pitch count. However, I expect him to pitch well while he's in there. Turnbull was dominant in his rehab start last Tuesday for AAA-Toledo; he allowed only one hit through 3 2/3 shutout innings, striking out seven. Off yesterday's big win, look for the UNDER to improve to 11-5 when the Sox were off a win by four or more runs. 

I'm playing on NY/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. While the first two games were high-scoring, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair for Sunday's series finale. Syndergaard has made four starts since the All Star Break. Over that 4-game span, averaging better than seven innings, he's got a dominant 1.91 ERA. Through the 28 1/3 innings, he's recorded 36 K's. Last time out, he allowed a single unearned run through seven complete, striking out 11 against just one walk and only five hits. He hasn't served up a home run in any of his last three starts. Musgrove also checks in off a quality start. He allowed two runs through six complete. His lone start against the Mets resulted in a 1-0 final score. Musgrove took the loss, despite allowing a single run through seven complete. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 6-1 in Musgrove's last seven August starts. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's are 118-63 (+32.5) as favorites of -110 or greater, the past 2+ seasons, 82-40 as home favs of -110 or greater. With an advantage on the mound, they'll improve on those stats tonight. Fiers gives a quality start nearly every time out. In fact, he's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 17 straight starts. He's got a dominant 2.46 ERA since late April. On the season, he's got a 1.95 ERA and 0.952 WHIP at home. On the other hand, Hudson has a 6.46 ERA his last three starts. In that 15-inning span, he's served up five home runs, three of them in his last start alone. The last time that Fiers faced the Cards (2015) he pitched a gem and won 1-0. Expect him to do his thing again this evening, en route to another Oakland victory. 

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE

I'm playing on NY/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I like what I'm seeing from both these starters lately. Matz, in particular, has been outstanding. Last time out, he needed only 99 pitches to deliver a complete-game shutout (first of his career) against these same Pirates. That was on the heels of a quality start (2 runs, 6 innings) against the Giants. He's got a 1.89 ERA since the break. Williams is also back on track, after a tough stretch. Two starts ago, he struck out seven St. Louis batters, allowing one run through five innings. Last time out, he went seven complete innings, allowing two runs while holding the Mets to just three hits, once again recording seven strikeouts. That was the same game in which Matz delivered his shutout; the final score was 3-0. Both bullpens got a day off yesterday and I'm expecting another relatively well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on the Cubs/Cards OVER the total. While I won with the 'under' in yesterday's 2-0 game, I expect the bats to come alive this evening. While he was sharp last time out, Lester, who missed a start recently due to illness, has a mediocre 4.42 ERA in nine road starts. In his last two starts against the Cards, Lester has allowed 12 combined earned runs in just nine innings. His last three starts against the Cards have finished with 13, 23 and 18 combined runs. Five of his last six against St. Louis have produced a minimum of 12 combined runs. Flaherty opposed Lester in the 13-run game. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs. His last two against Chicago have both produced double-digits. That makes it four of his last five against the Cubs which have seen more than 10 combined runs scored. The 'over' has been money when the Cubs have been underdogs. Expect that to continue to be the case here. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Sox are a profitable 15-5 (+8.2) the past 20 times that they were off three straight losses. Most recently, they snapped a 3-game skid on 7/2 with a 10-6 win. Desperate for a win before facing the Yankees tomorrow, I expect them to improve on those stats today. Cashner checks in off a quality start, a victory over the Yankees. That was his first victory with his new team. With that monkey off his back, he'll bring some positive momentum into this game. Cashner should be happy to see the Rays, too. Since 7/27/18, Cashner has made three starts against Tampa. His teams won all three games, Cashner allowing two or fewer earned runs in each. Overall, he allowed five earned runs through 18 combined innings. McKay hasn't started in the bigs since 7/19. In that game, facing the White Sox, he gave up five runs, on nine hits, in just three innings. Boston bounces back, big. 

I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis UNDER the total. The pitchers dominated yesterday's game and I expect another well-pitched affair this evening. Hendricks has been great lately but has gotten no run support. He's got a 2.88 ERA his past five starts. That combination of quality pitching and an average of just 1.6 runs of support led to all five of those games finishing below the number. In fact, the UNDER is now 8-1 in Hendricks' last nine. Run support may well be a problem for Hendricks once again as Mikolas, who has been much better at home all season, checks in with a 2.57 ERA his past three starts. The UNDER was 2-0-1. Hendricks' last four starts against St. Louis have all been excellent. In 31 innings, he allowed just five combined earned runs. Not surprisingly, three of those four fell below the total. Meanwhile, Mikolas has seen the UNDER go 5-1 in six career starts against the Cubs. The last three times that he faced them the scores were 1-3, 2-1 and 2-1. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on KC. The Royals hit the road after this and they'd badly like a victory before they leave. I expect them to get it. Yes, Junis struggled against the Indians last time out. However, in his previous three starts he had a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Facing a Toronto team which he's enjoyed success against, I expect him to bounce back with a solid effort. In two career starts (both 2017) against the Jays, he's gone more than six innings in each, while allowing just two earned runs in each. He allowed just nine total hits, none of them leaving the yard, while striking out more than he walked in both. He won by a combined score of 20-9. Junis should again get plenty of run support against the Jays as Wagnuestack has a 5.63 ERA, 5.79 when pitching on the road. Opposing batters have hit .316 against him, outside of Canada. Last time out, for the second time in three games, he walked more than he struck out. I say the Royals bounce back and avoid the sweep. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I like what I saw out of Smyly a lot better last time out than what I saw from Beede. Making his Phillies' debut, Smyly allowed just one run through six complete innings, while recording eight K's. On the other hand, Beede allowed 10 hits last time out, three of them leaving the yard, in 5 2/3 innings. On the season, Beede has a 5.54 ERA on the road. The Giants, who took two of three at PetCo, before having yesterday off, are just 61-82 the past 2+ seasons, against southpaw starters. During that span, they're also an ugly 27-45 (-15.2) when off a 1-run win and an awful 48-100 (-47) when off of three or more consec. road games. During that same time, the Phillies are 85-50 when playing at home with a line of -110 or greater. Expect the Phillies to grab the opener. 

I'm playing on KC. These teams have identical 40-67 records. Both have already been playing out the string for some time. There are several reasons why I expect the Royals to have the advantage this evening though. Here are some of them. 1. The Royals are playing at home. They're still not good here but they are considerably better here than on the road. Their home record is superior to the Jays' road record. 2. The Jays could be a bit distracted as they've already been in full on sell mode longer than KC with Stroman and Sogard both dealt yesterday. Giles (their closer) and/or others could potentially be gone before this one's done. 3. Momentum: The Royals won yesterday while the Jays blew a 7-run lead and lost a deflating 10-9 game. 4. Starting pitching: Keller was excellent last time out. He hit 98 MPH on the radar gun while tossing seven shutout innings against the Braves. He only allowed four hits. In fact, he's quietly gone 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA his past three starts, averaging better than seven innings while compiling a 17/3 K/W ratio. Pannone, meanwhile, is 0-3 with a 14.47 ERA and 2.358 WHIP as a starter this season, averaging barely three innings per start. Overall, he's 2-4 with 6.49 ERA. Keller's lone home start against the Jays resulted in a 3-1 win, as he tossed seven innings and allowed one run. The Royals are 2-0 when he starts against Toronto. It all adds up to a KC win. 

I'm playing on KC/Clev. UNDER the total. I lost with the 'under' yesterday as these teams combined for 10 runs. However, that won't stop me from coming right back with the 'under' in this afternoon's matchup. Both starters are off a great effort and I'm expecting them to carry the momentum into today's game. Duffy was outstanding last time out. Through six complete innings against the Braves, he recorded 11 K's while allowing just five hits, one walk and one run. His previous start was also quality; two runs through six complete. He's now got 16 K's against just one walk, his past two outings. Note that he's been considerably better in day games than night games this season, too. Bauer was arguably even more dominant than Duffy last time out; he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings, striking out nine while allowing just three hits. He's got 30 K's over his past three starts, all of them quality. Duffy's lone 2019 start against the Indians was a 4-0 final while the UNDER is also 7-2-1 in Bauer's last 10 starts against KC. Look for a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Braves have taken the first two games of this series, I fully expect the Phillies to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Nola (8-2) has a dominant 1.51 in seven starts since he last faced the Braves. Last time out, he allowed just one run, on only four hits, through seven complete innings. While he's off a strong start, Gausman is still 3-5 with a poor 5.71 ERA on the season. On the road, his ERA climbs to .635, opposing batters hitting .316 against him. He's also got a 6.55 ERA in two daytime starts. Given the starting pitching matchup, I feel that the Phillies could easily be favored by more. They're going to be desperate and I look for them to get it done.

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's brought in Bailey to help them win some games down the stretch. The veteran gets a chance to do just that here, as Oakland badly needs a victory. I expect him to come through with flying colors. True, Bailey was shaky last time out. However, in his start before that, which was his A's debut, he was held Seattle to two runs through six complete, winning by a 10-2 score. Going back further finds that Bailey was 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in his previous nine starts, prior to his last outing. In six of those nine starts, he allowed two or fewer earned runs. Note that in his two starts for the A's, he was great in the one here in Oakland and that in was on the road (Houston) where he struggled. While Bailey struggled last start, Sampson has struggled all season. He's got an ugly 9.82 ERA and 1.91 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 0-6 with a terrible 10.29 ERA and 1.965 WHIP, when starting on the road. Expect Bailey and the A's to bounce back with a much-needed win. 

I'm playing Cleveland/KC UNDER the total. Clevinger has been money ever since returning from injury. Over four July starts, he's got a 1.88 ERA. The first of those four starts came against these same Royals. Clevinger tossed six complete innings in that 7/3 game. He allowed just four hits, striking out nine without walking a batter. Sparkman faced the Indians in his last start. He allowed four runs through six complete innings. Not terrible but not great either. However, that was at Cleveland. Now, he faces the Tribe in his home park, where he's been much much better. In nine road games, six starts, Sparkman has an ugly 8.73 ERA. However, in 10 home games, five starts, he's got a sparkling 1.76 ERA. In those five home starts, Sparkman's ERA dips to a dominant 1.03. Last time on this mound, he tossed nine shutout innings. He was brilliant in that one, allowing just five singles. Expect a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the number.