I'm playing on Cincinnati and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Over the past 2+ seasons, these teams have seen nine of 13 meetings fall below the total. That includes a 2-0 Marlins win in Fernandez's most recent start vs. the Reds. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair this evening. True, Fernandez is off a rare bad game. Hoever, he's still 7-1 with a dominating 1.72 ERA and 0.884 WHIP here at home. Not surprisingly, seven of his nine home starts have fallen below the total.Strailly, who will have the advantage of starting against Miami for the first time, bounced back with a quality effort at Washington last time out, holding the Nats to two hits through seven innings. He did give up a 2-run home run in the eighth but otherwise was outstanding. The fact that he had four innings with 10 or fewer pitches shows how efficient he was. Look for both starters to perform well, the final combined score staying below the number. 10*

I'm playing on NY and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener produced 10 combined runs. However, I expect to see some better pitching this evening.

Tanaka is 3-1 with a superb 1.32 ERA and 0.902 WHIP in seven road starts. He hasn't given up a home run in any of those games. Not surprisingly, six of them stayed below the number. Rodon's numbers (4.24 ERA) aren't great but they aren't terrible either. He strikes out a batter per inning and NY doesn't hit well vs left-handers. Over his last three starts, he has 22 K's in 17 innings, walking only four. The UNDER is 6-2 in his eight home starts. 

The Yankees haven't hit well on the road overall, averaging 3.7 runs (.242 avg) in games away from NY. They also average only 3.7 runs per game vs. left-handed starters. The UNDER is 17-10-3 when they've played a game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5, including a 9-4-1 UNDER mark when playing a road game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. The Sox average only 4.1 runs per game at home. They've seen the UNDER go 11-4-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. I expect those stats to improve here. 10* 

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Rays earned a much needed victory in yesterday's series opener and I expect them to have the edge again this evening. Odorizzi has yet to win in nine home starts, going 0-2. That's hardly his fault though as he's got a solid 3.10 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in those games. Odorizzi should have a great chance at finally earning that elusive first home victory here. The Angels are really struggling and, after looking sharp in his A.L. debut, Lincecum has come back down to earth in his last two starts. In 7 1/3 innings, he's allowed nine earned runs, on 14 hits and six walks. That's 20 baserunners in just over seven innings. Not good. Odorizzi pitched well at LA a couple of months ago, in his lone start against the Angels over the past two seasons. Tampa won that game 4-2, Odorizzi allowing five hits and two runs through six innings. I expect him to get the better of Lincecum tonight, en route to another TB victory. 10*

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Brewers won 1-0 yesterday. Don't expect it to happen again. Milwaukee is just 4-15 the past 2+ seasons, off a shutout win, 0-3 the past three. (During that span, the Nats are 3-1 off a shutout loss.) While Gonzalez admittedly hasn't been great, he was a little better last time out. Through six innings, he allowed four runs but the nine K's were an encouraging sign. Gonzalez's numbers look better when compared to what Davies has been doing of late. He allowed six runs in just 4 1/3 innings last time out, three balls leaving the yard. Gonzalez has a 4.57 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in eight home starts, the Nats going 4-4. The Brewers are only 1-3 in Davies' road starts though, as he's posted a 5.49 ERA and 1.628 WHIP. Again, Gonzalez's numbers aren't great - just better than Davies' numbers. Throw in the fact that the Nats have the better hitting lineup and the superior bullpen and I expect a win for the home team. 10* 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Bradley in much better form than Perdomo. Bradley with a 2.12 ERA his last three starts. Perdomo with a 6.35 ERA his last three. In three road starts, Perdomo has an ugly 7.62 ERA and 1.923 WHIP. The Padres have hit well vs. southpaws but not nearly as well vs. right-handers. Bradley beat Pomeranz in his lone start vs. SD, striking out nine against just one walk. I expect him to get the better of Perdomo, en route to a win for the home team. 10* 

I'm playing on TB. Moore is excellent form. He checks in off a 7-inning shutout in his last start. He held Boston to a mere three hits, beating Price in the process. Tropeano last started back in late May. The Rays have already had a look at Tropeano back in early May, taking him deep twice in 5 1/3 innings. The Angels haven't seen Moore for a few seasons and they were probably happy about that. He's 3-0 (team is 4-0) in four starts against them, posting a 1.52 ERA. With the Angels averaging a mere 3.5 runs per game vs southpaws, I'm backing Moore and the Rays. 10*

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) With the Marlins favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with Atlanta for quite a reasonable price, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. While the Braves certainly have some issues, they've played much better in recent weeks. They managed a profit against the moneyline, albeit a small one, in June and after upsetting Jose Fernandez yesterday, they're in the black for July, thus far. Wisler is off three straight quality starts, the Braves winning two of those. Last time out, he limited hot hitting Cleveland to two runs through six innings, striking out nine. (He received a no-decision.) In his previous start, also a no-decision, he held the Mets to three runs through 6 2/3 innings. Atlanta won a 1-run game. Before that, he beat the Reds, allowing two run through 6 2/3 innings. Conley didn't fare nearly as well in his last start, as he allowed five runs through 4 1/3 innings. True, Conley did just dominate the Braves (at Miami) two starts ago. However, he didn't pitch as well in a start here at Atlanta in late May (Braves won 4-2) and Atlanta will now be seeing him for the second time in less than two weeks and the third time in roughly six weeks. On the other hand, the Marlins haven't seen Wisler yet this season. For all their problems, the Braves have had their way with the Marlins this season. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 10*

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Off last night's loss, I'm coming right back with the A's this afternoon. Mengden tossed 7 2/3 innings last time out, holding the Giants to just four hits. The A's won 8-3. in four starts, he's got a 2.80 ERA. He's averaging better than six innings per start and he's striking out a batter per inning. Liriano has seen better days. After struggling yet again last time out, he's 0-2 with an awful 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's 1-4 with an ugly 6.98 ERA and 1.784 WHIP on the road. He's walking a lot of batters, while also giving up a lot of hits and home runs. Not good. Liriano will face an Oakland team which feasts on southpaws (5.7 runs per game, .283 average) and which will be hungry to avoid the sweep. Put away your brooms Pittsburgh fans, the A's are taking this one. 10* 

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Archer may have 11 losses on the season but he should still give the Rays a solid edge on the mound here. In eight home starts, despite being 1-6, Archer has a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.196 WHIP, striking out 63 in 51 innings. Clearly, he could have a better record here. On the other hand, Pelfrey is more deserving of his 0-5 road record. In seven road starts, he's got a mediocre 4.19 ERA to go along with a poor 1.81 WHIP. Note that he's walked more batters (25 vs 18) than he's struck out in those games, never a good sign. Having allowed 12 hits in each of his last two games, 24 hits in 10 1/3 total innings) Pelfrey, who has a 5.63 ERA in three starts vs. the Rays, is highly hittable these days. In Archer's last home start against the Tigers, he struck out 11, without walking a batter through seven innings. While he didn't allow an earned run, bad defense cost him a pair of unearned runs and led to a hard-luck 2-1 loss. He should get more support here and I expect a TB victory. 10* 

I'm playing on NY and SD to finish UNDER the total. While last night's series opener was high-scoring, I'm expecting pitching to take center stage on Saturday night. Pomeranz, who will be making his final start before the All Star Break has enjoyed an outstanding first half. He'll be looking to again prove that he belongs in the All Star game (here at Petco on 7/12) and I expect him to pitch well. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings at Cincinnati. For the season, he's got a 2.76 ERA and 1.136 WHIP, striking out 102 in 88 innings. Ten of his 15 starts have fallen below the total. 

Pomeranz, who allowed just one earned run in seven innings in his lone start against NY, a 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium in 2014, will face a Yankee lineup which doesn't hit southpaws very well. The Yanks are averaging only 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting just .247) While left-handed batters Ellsbury and Gardner are great at the top of the order against right-handers, they aren't nearly as intimidating against left-handers. Meanwhile, Beltran, arguably their best hitter against southpaws isn't expected to start and is likely limited to pinch-hitting duty.

Admittedly, Nova has been pretty bad of late. He's always pitched well against the National League though, as he's got a 2.88 ERA in 15 Interleague appearances, 14 starts. One of those came here at Petco, a 3-0 win back in 2013. Nova will face a SD lineup which hasn't hit nearly as well vs. right-handers as it has against southpaws. He should be able to bounce back with a better effort. With Pomernaz also "doing his thing," look for the final combined score to stay below the total. 10* 

I'm playing on SD. The Padres got back on track with a much needed 7-6 win last night. I expect them to have the edge again this evening. Pomeranz, who will be making his final start before the All Star Break has enjoyed an outstanding first half. He'll be looking to again prove that he belongs in the All Star game and I expect him to pitch well. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings at Cincinnati. For the season, he's got a 2.76 ERA and 1.136 WHIP, striking out 102 in 88 innings. Pomeranz, who allowed just one earned run in seven innings in his lone start against NY, a 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium in 2014, will face a Yankee lineup which doesn't hit southpaws very well. The Yanks are averaging only 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting just .247) While left-handed batters Ellsbury and Gardner are great at the top of the order against right-handers, they aren't nearly as intimidating against left-handers. Meanwhile, Beltran, arguably their best hitter against southpaws isn't expected to start and is likely limited to pinch-hitting duty. Nova has always pitched well against the National League and he was very sharp in his lone start here at Petco, a 3-0 win back in 2013. That said, his numbers are nowhere close to Pomeranz's numbers; he's 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA his last three starts and he's got a 5.37 ERA in 10 starts overall. Look for Pomeranz to cement his case for the All Star game, which will be here at Petco, the Padres improving to 35-20 their last 55 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. 10* 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. While they lost against Bumgarner and the Giants yesterday, the A's are still a healthy 6-2 their last eight. They should be able to bounce right back here. Gray is a much better pitcher than his overall numbers suggest and he's demonstrated that recently. Last time out, he allowed two earned runs through six innings. In his previous start, he allowed one earned run through six. Locke is also off b2b strong starts. Those both came at Pittsburgh though. In eight road starts, he's 2-4 with an ugly 7.36 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. In those eight road starts, he has nearly as many walks (16) as he does K's (21). The A's are much better at hitting against southpaws than they are against right-handers. They've won 29 of their last 50 (+6.4) Interleauge games and I look for them to start the series with a victory. 10* 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While I won with the Sox yesterday, this figures to be a tough matchup. With a 2.12 ERA his last three starts, Fiers is in fine current form. The Astros are 6-2 in his eight home starts, Fiers posting a 3.20 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in those games. Gonzalez got hammered agains last time out. He's now 0-2 with a terrible 9.39 ERA and 2.022 WHIP his last three. Note that the Sox bullpen has struggled on the road while the Astros releivers have thrived at home. Fiers has an outstanding 1.38 ERA and 0.872 WHIP in two starts vs. the Astros, yet was winless in those games. Look for Houston to finally provide him enough support for the "W" here. 10* 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Sox won big yesterday and they should be able to build on that victory in Thursday afternoon's all southpaw affair. Rodon has allowed two runs in each of his last three starts, averaging six innings. Over that span, he's got a 3.00 ERA with 23 Ks vs. just five walks. Milone, on the other hand, has failed to go five innings in any of his last three starts. He's got a 4.84 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in that span. The Twins are 0-3 when he starts on the road. Note that the Sox bullpen has a combined home ERA which is roughly three runs less than the Twins' relievers' combined road ERA. Milone got the better of Rodon in a game at Minnesota last September. With the Twins averaging only 3.7 runs per game vs. southpaws, compared to Chicago's 4.6 rpg vs. southpaws, Rodon, who has a 1.50 ERA vs. the Twins, gets some payback. 10*

I'm playing on SEATTLE. As many of you know, we won with the Mariners last night. I believe they're offering us excellent value again tonight. Miley returns after missing a couple of starts. Reports are that he's "good to go," after he tossed 4-innings of no-hit ball (7 Ks!) in a minor league rehab start at Everett. The Ms' are 9-4 when he's taken the mound this season. Note that the M's are also now 9-2 (+6.6) in Interleague action. The Pirates are just 3-8. 

Yesterday, I mentioned that the Pirates might be "feeling the effects" of a Sunday night game, followed by an early Monday loss in the Eastern Time Zone, followed by a trip to the west coast in time to play Tuesday night. I still think there may be something to that. They haven't had a day off since 6/13 and will be playing their 16th game in the past 16 days here. They've been mired in a terrible losing streak and could badly use a day off, which they'll finally get tomorrow. 

Tallion has gone just four innings in consecutive starts, allowing eight hits and four runs each time. That's 16 hits, three of those leaving the yard, and eight runs in his last eight innings. Miley, a former National League pitcher, has a 2.14 ERA in five starts vs. the Pirates. The last time he faced them, he struck out 10 without walking a batter. Look for him to get the better of Tallion, en route to another Seattle win. 10* 

I'm playing on Boston and TB to finish UNDER the total. The Red Sox roughed up Archer yesterday, en route to an 8-2 win. After playing a stretch of four straight 'unders,' they've now seen six of their last seven finish above the total. However, things should change here, as I'm expecting this afternoon's all-southpaw matchup to result in a well-pitched affair. Price didn't pitch well last game. I'm willing to cut the Boston ace some slack though. In his previous two starts, he had 18 K's without walking a batter, going eight complete in each of them. The boxscore makes Moore look pretty bad (5 runs in 6 2/3 innings) from his last start. However, he actually got 13 outs in a row to start that game and so was pitching better than the final stats show. He's gone six or more innings in four straight starts. In his last two here at Tampa, he's allowed only two combined runs through 13 innings, striking out 15 against just three walks. While this series has been high-scoring thus far, games here have not been overall on the season, the UNDER going 23-13-1. Things return to "normal" this afternoon. 9*

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Though they're in different leagues, these teams bring some similarities into this evening's series opener. Both teams started well but both have fallen upon hard times in recent weeks. Both are stuck in a division which features the (current) top team in their respective divisions. Seattle, now 38-38, sits 11.5 back of Texas. At 37-40, 13 back of the Cubs, things are even worse in Pittsburgh. I feel the situation sets up nicely for the M's to get back on track tonight. 

Admittedly, Iwakuma hasn't been at his best lately. However, he's still been considerably better than Niese, who's 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA his last three starts. For the season, Iwakuma has a 4.45 ERA and 1.347 WHIP. Niese has a 4.93 ERA and 1.483 WHIP. Iwakuma has a respectable 1.278 WHIP at home, where he averages 6.4 innings per start and has a 28/5 K/W ratio. Niese has a 1.653 WHIP on the road, averaging 5.6 innings. In a nearly identical number of innings (39.3 vs. 38.3) Niese has walked nearly three times as many batters on the road, as Iwakuma has at home. He's also served up four more home runs, 13 vs. nine.

While the Pirates have been outscored by a 17-9 margin in Niese's last three starts overall, the M's have won Iwakuma's last three home starts by a combined margin of 26-12.

It should also be noted that Iwakuma will have the advantage of starting against Pittsburgh for the first time, while the M's already hammered (6.00 ERA, 2.197 WHIP) Niese when they saw him here a couple of seasons ago. Niese would allow 13 baserunners in that one, 11 hits and two walks. Seattle won 5-2. 

While the Pirates are 3-7 (-5.2) in interleague play, the M's are 8-2 (+5.6) against teams from the N.L.

The M's average more runs per game than the Pirates (4.9 vs. 4.6) and their bullpen has a superior combined ERA and WHIP, 3.26/1.210 vs. 4.16/1.415.

Lastly, it should be mentioned that the M's had yesterday off while the Pirates had to play an early game at Pittsburgh (after playing on ESPN the previous night) before flying across the country after the game. The mood on that cross-country flight probably wasn't as good as it would have been either - as the Pirates squandered an opportunity to sweep the Dodgers, a tough 5-4 loss to kill the momentum they had gained. It all adds up to Seattle climbing back above the .500 mark. 10* GOM 

I'm playing on Houston and LA to finish OVER the total. Both starters are off a solid outing. Shoemaker allowed three runs, on eight hits, through 7 1/3 innings. The previous day, McHugh allowed two runs, through seven innings. By now, you might be thinking, "if both starters pitched well last game, why is Burns expecting a high-scoring game?" While one of the reasons is that while both starters are off a "quality start," those starts happened to come against the same opponent which they will be facing today. That means that the hitters will be facing the same pitchers for the second time in less than a week. That's a situation which generally favors the pitchers. Also, while both were solid last time out, neither starter was spectacular. Each allowed a home run. For the season, McHugh still has a poor 4.70 ERA overall, including an ugly 5.02 ERA on the road. Shoemaker has a 4.43 at home and overall. When the Astros visited here a month ago, two of three games finished above the total. One of those game with Shoemaker on the mound, a 5/27 contest which produced nine runs. McHugh didn't pitch in that series. However, his last start here was also high scoring, a 13-3 game last June. Prior to being stymied by Kennedy yesterday, the Astros had scored 26 runs in their previous two games. They entered Sunday's action averaging 4.8 runs per game vs. right-handers. With the Angels also averaging a healthy 4.6 runs per game vs. rh'ers, I believe this line will prove to be a little too low. 10* 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. With a 1-9 mark (14-31 L45) their last 10 Monday games, the Phillies must dread the start of each new week. I don't think they'll have much to look forward to here either. Not with a southpaw on the mound. A couple of recent wins notwithstanding, the Phillies have been dreadful for weeks. Their lineup offers very little, particularly when matched up against a left-hander. Indeed, they're averaging a mere 2.9 runs per game vs. southpaws, hitting just .224. While he wasn't great in a loss at Toronto last time out, Ray was sharp in beating the Phillies, at Philadelphia, two starts ago. In his last home start, he allowed only three hits through 7 2/3 shutout innings. Velasquez has potential. However, he hasn't shown it very consistently and this will be his first start in the past few weeks. He's got an awful 8.68 ERA his last three starts, to go along with a 1.929 WHIP. For the season, he's got a 5.79 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in six home starts. When you're team can't hit, those kind of numbers won't win too many games. Even off a loss yesterday, the Dbax have still won seven of their past 10. All things considered, I like Arizona to bounce back and I feel this price could easily be higher. 10* 

I'm playing on LA and Pittsburgh to finish OVER the total. While Kershaw certainly ranks among the best of all-time, I believe this number will prove to be a little too low. Kuhl will be making his major league debut. While he's put up some decent numbers in the minors, he's still a former #269 pick who will be making a big time step up in class - from pitching at Indianapolis - to opposing Kershaw in front on a nationally televised audience. While Kuhl's overall numbers were strong at AAA this season, it should be noted that his ERA has more than doubled over his last four starts. It was down at 1.24 at the end of May. So, he's not in quite the type of form that he was a few weeks ago. In fact, he allowed 10 hits in each of his last two triple-AAA starts, with reports that he was starting to show some fatigue. That may well catch up with him here. The Pirates hit Kershaw pretty well in two starts against him last season. They scored three runs, on seven hits, in seven innings in the game at LA. In the game here at Pittsburgh, they reached him for four runs on nine hits, one of those leaving the yard, the Pirates ultimately winning 5-4. Going back further finds that ALL six of Kershaw's career starts at Pittsburgh have produced a minimum of seven combined runs. Those games had scores of 5-4, 5-3, 9-3, 4-3, 6-5 and 4-3. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than expected. 10* 

I'm playing on DETROIT. After getting blanked 6-0 yesterday, I like the Tigers to bounce back this afternoon. Verlander figures to have a score to settle with Tomlin. The two have opposed each other twice this season and Tomlin won both times. In the game at Cleveland, Tomlin was clearly better. However, both pitched well in the game here at Detroit, each only allowing four hits. Verlander went a little longer and had more than twice as many K's (10 vs. 4) but Tomlin kept the Tigers to a single run while Verlander allowed two. While both have pitched well overall, I like Verlander's ability to escape trouble by striking out batters (102 Ks vs 53 for Tomlin) and that he goes a little deeper into games (6.7 innings compared to 6.3) while also allowing fewer home runs. The Indians entered the weekend averaging 4.1 runs (hitting .227) per game on the road while the Tigers were averaging 5.1 runs per game at home, while hitting .285. With a 10-1 record when favored at home in the -125 to -150 range, the Tigers are in one of their best roles. Payback time. 10*

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds are struggling right now and they got blanked 3-0 yesterday. This should be an excellent spot to bounce back though. Desclafini has a 2.30 ERA through three starts. Last time out, he limited Texas to two runs on five hits, through seven complete innings. He recorded six K's and walked only one batter. The Reds won 8-2, the last time that they won a game. Things haven't gone nearly so well for Perdomo. He's made four starts and has an awful 8.83 ERA. In two road starts, he's got a 10.29 ERA and 2.143 WHIP. The Padres have been fortunate to face southpaws in the first three games of this series. They haven't hit nearly as well vs right-handers this season though. In the first righty-righty matchup of the series, the Reds bounce back and avoid the sweep. 10* 

I'm playing on Cincinnati and SD to finish UNDER the total. While both teams have been on "over" streaks of late, I'm expecting a relatively well pitched affair this afternoon. Finnegan, who will have the advantage of facing the Padres for the first time, is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in four June starts. The UNDER was 3-0-1 in those four games, as they averaged just six combined runs a piece. Pomeranz is off a quality start vs. the Nationals. While he allowed three runs in six innings, he also struck out seven against just one walk, an encouraging sign. For the season, Pomeranz has a 3.00 ERA and 1.185 WHIP, nine of his 14 starts staying below the total. While he has a stellar 2.61 ERA from two starts against the Reds, (scores of 3-0 and 4-1) those games came back in 2011 and 2012. So, many of the current Reds have never faced him and the ones that have, haven't done so in a long time. Look for the bats to cool off, the final combined score staying below the generously high number. 10*

I'm playing on ARIZONA. While I successfully played against the Dbax yesterday, they should have a significant adantage in this evening's opener vs. the Rockies. If these same two pitchers were facing each other at Arizona today, the line would obviously be much higher. I believe that the lower line is providing value here though, as Arizona has actually been much better (21-14, +12.4!) on the road, as has Greinke, while Colorado is below .500 at home. Greinke is in outstanding current form. He's 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA in four June starts. Going back a little further reveals that he's won seven straight, recording a 1.90 ERA during that stretch. He's 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.837 WHIP in six road starts, all of them Arizona wins. While baserunners have been few and far between for Greinke, the opposite is true of Butler. In three June appearances, two of them starts, he's allowed 30 baserunners (24 hits, 6 walks) in just 13 1/3 innings. Yikes. Not surprisingly, the Rockies are 0-3 his last three starts. While pitching in Colorado will inflate anyone's ERA, Butler's is pretty bad. In three home starts, he's got a 10.29 ERA. After pitching poorly against them to start the season, Greinke was much better in a late April non-decision against the Rockies. He wasn't on the type of roll that he's on now though. Look for him to get the better of Butler, en route to another Arizona road win. 10* 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Gibson has yet to taste victory this season. However, he pitched well enough to win last time out and a similar effort should lead to a win here. That's because Morgan has been terrible. Morgan allowed seven runs (4 earned) in just 4 1/3 innings. In that short span, he gave up 10 hits, three of them leaving the yard. He's now 1-6 with a 6.49 ERA. (By comparison, Gibson's 4.01 ERA at home looks pretty good.) While Gibson has given up three home runs in six starts, Morgan has served up 12 of them in his 10 starts. While neither lineup is particularly potent, last night notwithstanding, the Twins' bats are arguably more intimidating. That's because the current Philadelphia lineup possesses very little. A strong start to the season is ancient history. Prior to exploding for 10 runs in last night's 14-10 loss, the Phillies had scored a mere three runs in their previous three games (1 in each) and a paltry 12 runs in their previous seven, an average of less than two runs per game. Gibson gets the better of Morgan, earning his first "W" of the season along the way. 10* 

I'm playing on DETROIT. Off yesterday's late inning victory, the Tigers bring some positive momentum into this evening's game. So does Justin Verlander. In his last six starts, Verlander is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA. Verlander has also delivered seven straight quality starts vs. Seattle. Over that 48 2/3 inning span, he allowed just 16 earned runs, striking out an impressive 59. In fact, ALL eight of his career home starts against Seattle have been of the "quality" variety. Filling in for "King Felix," Paxton has been great in a couple of Safeco starts. However, he's got an ugly 5.58 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in two road starts. The Tigers are 3-0 in Verlander's last three starts, Verlander recording 20K's vs. only three walks. Look for him to outpitch Paxton here, the M's slide continuing for another day. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays are a profitable 31-19 (+6.6) their last 50 Interleague games and they should have a solid advantage for tonight's opener vs. Arizona. Estrada continues to "quietly" get it done. Even the Jays couldn't have expected Estrada to be as good as he's been, since his arrival in Toronto. He was arguably their most consistent starter last season. Speaking of consistent, Estrada has now allowed five or fewer hits in 10 straight starts, a Jays record. Through 13 starts, averaging nearly seven innings every time he takes the mound, he's 5-2 with a stellar 2.58 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. He's done his best work here in Toronto, too. In six home starts, he's got a superb 1.77 ERA and 0.885 WHIP. Meanwhile, Corbin checks in at 3-6 with a 4.77 ERA. Admittedly, the Jays' numbers vs. southpaws aren't that impressive yet. They haven't faced a left-handed starter in some time though and the bats have come to life since that time. Previously, they'd been struggling against both rh'ers and lh'ers. Their recent success at the plate should carry over to tonight's game, as their stats vs. southpaws should start climbing the rest of the summer. After getting pounded on Sunday, the Jays got a much needed day off yesterday, while Arizona was busy playing at Philly. Behind another solid effort from Estrada, look for the Jays to bounce back big here. 10* 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Both teams have won four of their last five. However, the Astros should have a solid edge in tonight's opener. Fister has been outstanding of late. He's 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA his last three starts. That's the fourth best mark in the A.L. this month. Going back further and we find that the Astros are a perfect 9-0 the last nine times that he's taken the mound. While Fister is loving his return to the AL, Chacin's move from the NL hasn't gone nearly as smoothly. Since coming over from Atlanta, in seven starts, he's 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA. He's going the wrong way, too. In three June starts, he's 1-1 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.826 WHIP. Chacin is supported by an LA bullpen which has a combined 4.83 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road. Fister, on the other hand, has the support of a Houston pen which has a combined 2.29 ERA and 0.921 WHIP at home. The Astros are 11-7 (+4.3) as as host in the series the past couple of seasons and I like their chances of improving on those stats in tonight's opener. 10*

I'm playing on Clev and TB to finish UNDER the total. Five of Tampa's last six visits here have fallen below the total. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair in this evening's opener. Both starters were sharp last time out. Smyly returned to form by allowing two runs, on just four hits, through 6 2/3 innings. He recorded 12 K's without walking a batter, the game finishing with a 3-2 score. Tomlin's last start also finished with a 3-2 final score. Tomlin allowed only one run though seven complete innings, striking out five without walking a batter. While Tomlin didn't factor in the decision of that one, he's quietly gone 8-1 with a very solid 3.27 ERA and 1.117 WHIP on the season. Over his last three starts, he's got a dominant 1.83 ERA, all three of games producing eight or fewer combined runs. Tomlin hasn't faced the Rays since 2014 but he was sharp (2 runs, 6 innings) the last time he did so. Smyly lost (4-1) against the Tribe this season but it wasn't his fault, as he allowed two earned runs through seven complete innings, giving up just three hits and one walk, while striking out 11. Three of his career starts vs Cleveland have stayed below the total. While TB hasn't scored as many runs vs. right-handers, Cleveland hasn't score as many vs. southpaws. It all adds up to a well-pitched affair. 10* 

I'm playing SD on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 RUNS) With the Nats favored on the money-line, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Padres for quite a reasonable price. In this case, while I like the Padres' chances of winning "outright," I feel that's the line which is providing us with the best value. You might be surprised to learn that the Nats are only 5-8 when Gonzalez has taken the mound. (They'd be 4-9 if asked to lay -1.5 runs in each.) That includes a 0-5 mark in his last five starts. Over that 5-game winless stretch, Gonzalez has allowed 24 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings. Not good. Pomeranz wasn't good last time out either. However, he still has a 2.88 ERA on the season, a 2.60 mark here at PetCo. While it was a few years ago now, Pomeranz tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings (beating Strasburg) in his lone start vs. Washington. On the other hand, the Padres roughed up Gio when they saw him last season, knocking him out of the game after only 4 2/3 innings. Two of his last three starts vs. SD have been decided by a single run. Dating back to last season, Pomeranz's teams would be 7-2 his last nine home starts, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each. I'm expecting AT LEAST another "cover" here. 10* 

I'm playing on KC. After a tough start to the month, the Royals have caught fire. Yesterday, they beat a red hot Fulmer to even up the series. With that 10-3 victory, the Royals are now 6-1 their last seven. They're also a profitable 23-8 at home on the season, averaging 4.7 runs while hitting .283 here. Indeed, nearly the entire team has played much better here. Count Volquez among those ranks. He's 2-4 with an ugly 6.82 ERA on the road but 4-2 with a superb 2.06 ERA and 1.108 WHIP here at home. Volquez comes off a dominant outing. After escaping some first inning trouble, he settled in and finished with seven shutout innings, allowing only two hits. Volquez also tossed seven shutout innings in his lone start against Detroit this season. On the other hand, Boyd got rocked last time out. He's now 1-7 with a 6.72 ERA on his career. Yikes. Unfortunately for Boyd, while he's only made 16 career starts, four of them have come against the Royals. So, KC is quite familiar with him. Boyd, who has an 8.68 ERA on the road this season, lost 15-1 in his last start here at KC. He lasted a single inning, giving up six earned runs. That happened to come against Volquez, too. KC won 15-7. The Royals have fared well against southpaws overall and with a favorable matchup, I look for them to keep on rolling for another day. 10*

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Giants beat Archer in yesterday's opener but I expect the Rays to return the favor this afternoon. I believe that Moore is better than his overall stats indicate and that he may have turned the corner in his last start, which was dominant. Moore tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits. He also recorded 10 K's while walking only a single batter. With the Giants electing to push Peavy's start back a day, Suarez gets the call. While Suarez should be motivated to pitch well against the team which signed him, (TB signed him as an amateur free agent way back in 2008) the Rays are likely better off against Suarez. While Peavy had a 2.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP in his previous three starts, Suarez will be making only the third start of his career. He's spent a great deal of time in the minors, where he managed a 25-34 record with eight teams. I'm looking for Moore to outpitch and outlast Suarez, the Rays cooling off their surging guests. 10* 

I'm playing on LA. While they're not letting him go deep into games, Urias is looking stronger each time out. He's got 14 K's vs. 2 walks in his last two starts. He allowed just three hits (vs 7 K's) in his lone home start, a 4-3 win for the Dodgers. Urias is supported by an LA bullpen which has a combined 2.61 ERA and 0.959 WHIP here at home, where LA relievers have converted seven of nine save opportunities. Admittedly, Davies has been great lately. That success has all come at home though. On the road, he's got a 7.82 ERA and 2.054 WHIP. While the price may seem a little steep, the Dodgers have thrived as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range the past couple of seasons. The Dodgers are also a profitable 104-68 (+12.6) off a loss the past few seasons. I expect them to bounce back. 10* Personal Favorite 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the Run-Line (+1.5 runs.) While I like the Phillies' chances of winning this game "outright," I like them even better when getting an extra +1.5 runs, at a very reasonable price. While Happ has been very solid on the season, Nola has arguably been better. Last start notwithstanding, he's also in better current form. Even after a rare tough outing, Nola still has a respectable 3.45 ERA his last three starts. Happ, on the other hand, has a poor 5.50 ERA his last three. Giving up five home runs in his last two starts hasn't helped matters. For the season, Happ has a 3.70 ERA and 1.185 WHIP. Nola is even better though with a 3.20 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Happ has 53 Ks vs. 24 walks, while allowing 12 home runs. Once again, Nola beats him in every category. He's got 88 K's vs. only 16 walks, allowing seven home runs. While the games in this series haven't been close, the Jays saw three of their four games against Baltimore, the team they faced in the last series, decided by a single run. Happ's teams would be just 6-14 in his last 20 road starts, if being asked to lay -1.5 runs in each of those games. This season, the Jays are 3-4 in his seven road starts, one of those three wins coming by a single run. I expect Nola and the Phillies to bounce back with a big effort. 10* 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Teams keep sending southpaws up against the A's. Averaging 5.9 runs per game vs. left-handers and hitting .300, Oakland isn't complaining. The A's have faced a southpaw in each of their previous three games. While they lost yesterday, they're 2-1 in the three games overall, scoring a whopping 26 runs. Holland checks in with an ugly 5.97 ERA in seven road starts. He gave up five runs in five innings at Seattle last time out, serving up three long balls in the process. Gray had some trouble before going on the DL but whatever was bothering him seems to no longer be an issue. He allowed two runs in 7 2/3 innings last time out after allowing only one in his previous start. Gray should be thrilled to see the Rangers as he's 7-3 with a 1.92 ERA vs. Texas. He allowed four earned runs or less in all 10 of those, three or less in nine, including 0 in four of them. He also went a minimum of six complete innings in nine of those 10 starts. With the A's also having a significant edge in the bullpen, look for the home team to finish on top. 10* 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the Nats (4-1) in Monday's series opener. After passing on yesterday's game, a 4-3 win for the Cubs, I'm coming back with the Nats in this afternoon's rubber game. With all due respect to the Cubs, who are playing great, this line could easily be higher. With their ability to roll out the likes of Scherzer and Strasburg, the Nats are one of a small number of teams that should scare the Cubs, come playoff time. While Hammel is admittedly having a very solid season, Strasburg checks in with a perfect 10-0 record. Hammel has essentially been a mediocre pitcher throughout his career (76-79, 4.35 ERA) while Strasburg is 64-37 with a 3.09 ERA for his career. Not that he needs any advantages, but Strasburg will have the advantage of not having faced the Cubs since 2013. On the other hand, the Nats just faced Hammel last month, scoring three runs against him in just five innings. He walked four, striking out just three. Strasburgh outduels Hammel, the Nats take the series. 10* 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. These starters opposed each other back in July of 2013, when Pomeranz was with the Rockies. Koehler got the better of him that day but I expect Pomeranz to return the favor this evening. While he wasn't at his best last time out, we can cut Pomeranz a little slack, as he's been outstanding overall. In 12 starts overall, he's got a 2.44 ERA. In five starts at Petco, he's got a superb 1.52 ERA and 1.045 WHIP. He's only given up one home run here all season. While he was solid at Minnesota last time out, Koehler still has a 4.35 ERA to go along with a poor 1.653 WHIP, in seven road starts. The Padres have thrived as home favorites in this range, going 33-19 (+6.9) their last 52 here, when the line ranged from -125 to -150. After getting pounded yesterday, look for them to bounce back, improving to 7-3 the last 10 times they hosted the Marlins. 10*

I'm playing on LA. The Twins took yesterday's opener but I expect the Angels to return the favor this evening. Chacin should be thrilled to be back in southern California. In his last home start, he tossed a complete game, 4-hitter. He allowed one run, striking out 10 against a solo walk. Santana, 1-6 on the season, is 0-3 with a 6.05 ERA his last three. None of those three teams (Tampa, Miami, Oakland) average as many runs as the Angels do either, so it hasn't been like he's been facing potent offenses. While Santana does have a solid 3.33 ERA in five road starts, its a little deceiving. He's also averaging less than five innings per road start and has a 1.521 WHIP. Chacin gets the better of Santana and the Angels bounce back. 10* 

I'm playing on Atlanta and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total on Tuesday. While yesterday's game produced 17 runs, I don't expect to even see half as many today. The Braves can't hit southpaws and average 3.0 runs per game against them. They've never faced Finnegan before and they're catching him at the wrong time. In his last two starts, Finnegan has allowed only three combined runs through 13 1/3 innings. He didn't factor in the decision last time out, a 3-2 game vs. the Cardinals. While Finnegan has had some trouble with the long ball at Cincy, he's only given up two home runs in six road starts. Teheran is much better than his 2-6 record suggests, as he's got a stellar 2.85 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. Last time out, he struck out eight in eight innings, earning a 4-2 win. Note that Teheran hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last three starts vs. the Reds, a span of 20 innings. Those games finished with scores of 5-0, 8-0 and 1-0, an average of less than five runs a piece. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. 10* 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Cubs continue to play very well. I believe that the Nats are favored for good reason here though. While he probably could have gone deeper, if they didn't need to hit for him, Hendricks had already allowed two runs in five innings vs. the Phillies in his last start. Scherzer, on the other hand, tossed seven shutout innings in his last start. With the win, he's now 112-66 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Hendricks hasn't been as good away from Wrigley, going 1-4 with a 4.23 ERA. After getting swept at Wrigley last month, the Nats will be fired up to exact some revenge. Expect them to take Game 1. 10*

I'm playing on SF. The Dodgers took last night's series opener, a late 3-2 win. I expect the Giants to have a solid edge this evening though. Samardzija has enjoyed pitching here at SF and will be happy to return home. He's 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in four starts here, averaging just shy of seven innings per start. Kazmir beat the Braves last time out but wasn't particularly sharp. He allowed seven hits and three runs, lasting only five innings. He's got a poor 5.13 ERA in six road starts this season. In two starts vs. SF this season, he's given up 10 earned runs in eight innings. Note that in his start here at SF, he served up three long balls. While they've had to face a pair of really good ones (Price and Kershaw!) their past two games, the Giants have hit well overall against southpaws, batting .273 as a team against left-handers. Look for them to bounce back with a big win. 10* 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Mets swept the Brewers at NY a few weeks ago. I expect the Brewers to get some payback in this evening's series opener. The Mets didn't have to face Nelson in the series at NY. That was fortunate for them, as he's got a superb 1.80 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in three starts vs. NY. In two career home starts vs. the Mets, he's allowed just three combined runs through 15 complete innings. One of those came against Colon. Nelson got the better of the Mets' veteran that day, the Brewers winning 4-1. Nelson would give up two hits in eight innings, Colon would give up 10 hits through six. Including that result, Colon has a poor 4.80 ERA to go along with an ugly 1.733 WHIP in eight starts vs. Milwaukee. This season, Colon has a respectable 3.86 ERA in six road starts. However, thats not nearly as good as Nelson's 2.54 ERA in seven home starts. While Colon averages less than six innings per road start, Nelson is averaging better than seven innings per home start. The Brewers have won by a combined score of 11-1 the last two times they faced Colon. Time to settle the score from last month. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays bats came back to life yesterday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. Baltimore. Wilson checks in with an 0-3 record and 5.94 ERA his last three starts. Admittedly, Stroman hasn't been very good his last couple of outings either. However,  he's got a lot more upside than Wilson. Note that Stroman, who already beat the Orioles this season, is 5-2 while Wilson is 2-5. In two starts against Baltimore the past two seasons, Stroman has allowed just four combined runs in 15 innings. Toronto won those games by a combined margin of 19-5. Another blowout won't surprise. 10* 

I'm playing on SF. After once riding him to a 6-figure DFS score, I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for David Price. Of course, that won't stop me from going against him when the situation/matchup says to do so. Tonight is one of those nights, as I feel this number could easily be higher. Off three straight losses, the Giants badly need a victory. Who better to turn to than their ace. Bumgarner is in exceptional form these days. He's 2-0 (SF is 3-0) with an outstanding 0.42 ERA and 0.843 WHIP his last three starts. During those three games, a span of more than 21 innings, he's allowed just a single run. On the season, he's 7-2 (SF is 9-3) with a 2.02 ERA. At home, he's got a 1.96 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. By comparison, Price's 4.88 ERA on the season doesn't look too good. Price had this to say of his efforts: "I've definitely thrown the ball better. I'm still not myself by any means. I haven't dominated the way I know I'm capable of ... " The Giants won when Bumgarner/Price faced each other in the playoffs a few years back and they're 8-0 in in Bumgarner's last eight starts overall. Look for SF to improve to 31-19 (+8.4) its last 50 as a home favorite of -125 or less. 10* 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Off four straight wins, the Rays are hot right now. However, I expect the Diamondbacks to slow them down tonight. Greinke has finally rounded into top form. He tossed seven shutout innings last time out, striking out 11 without walking a batter. That gives him a 2.14 ERA and 0.81 WHIP his last three starts. Moore, on the other hand, has an ugly 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP his last three, right in line with his 6.33 ERA and 1.988 WHIP on the road. The Rays are hitting .229 and averaging 3.7 runs per game vs right-handers; the Dbax are averaging 4.6 runs and hitting .277 vs. southpaws. Greinke gets it done again, the Rays falling to 19-27 (-9.6) the past few seasons, when off three or more consecutive victories. 10* 

I'm playing Philadelphia on the Run-Line (+1.5 runs.) With the Cubs a heavy favorite on the money-line, we're able to get an extra 1.5 runs with the Phillies and still get a healthy underdog return. With all due respect to Hendricks and the Cubs, who have indeed been very good, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Admittedly, Hendricks has been sharp his last two starts, one of those a win vs. Eickhoff and the Phillies. Those games were both at Wrigley though and he's been nothing special (1-3 with a 4.37 ERA) in four road starts. Eickhoff, on the other hand, has a superb 2.27 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in six home starts, all of them quality. He's gone at least six complete innings in ALL six of those, while allowing three earned runs or less in each, zero earned runs three times. He beat the Cubs in his lone home start against them, allowing a single run, on just three hits, through seven complete innings. I expect AT LEAST a "cover" here. 9* 

I’m playing on SAN DIEGO. The Padres have beaten the Braves 10 straight times here at PetCo Park. None of those Atlanta teams were as bad as the one they'll face this evening. The Braves have the worst record in baseball (tied with Minnesota) and they're terrible against southpaws. Perez has actually been decent. However, 4.86 ERA and 1.441 WHIP on the road. While he's admittedly been a little inconsistent with his control, the Padres have won Friedrich's last three starts and he's got a 2.53 ERA in four starts overall. While the Padres beat Perez here less than a year ago, (5-3 on 8/17/15) Friedrich will have the advantage of starting against the Braves for the first time. The Padres are a profitable 31-19 (+4.9) their last 50 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range and I look for them to take care of business again tonight. 10*

I'm playing on the PHILLIES. For those who haven't noticed, Nola has been extremely solid this season. While he took the loss last time out, it wasn't his fault, as he held the Nats to two runs through six complete innings. It was his ninth quality start, in 11 tries, this season. He's got a 3.12 ERA and 0.944 WHIP. He averages 6 1/2 innings per start. He strikes out more than a batter an inning AND he limits his walks. Peralta can't say any of that. He's got a poor 6.51 ERA and 1.923 WHIP on the season. He averages barely over five innings a start and he walks nearly as many as he strikes out. While Peralta has an ugly 5.83 in five starts vs. the Phillies, Nola is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP from his lone start vs. Milwaukee, a 5-2 win on 4/22. Nola outpitches Peralta and the Phillies salvage the series split. 10* 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros won big (12-2) yesterday, putting up seven runs in the first inning. That suited me just fine, as I had a play on the 'over.' Today's game originally had the makings of a possible "pitcher's duel," with Hill on the mound for Oakland. However, he's been replaced by Graveman, which I feel will work to Houston's advantage. Hill has been in excellent form all season and he's 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.983 WHIP on the road. Graveman, on the other hand, is 2-6 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. That includes a 1-3 record with a 7.23 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in five road starts. Again, note the massive difference between Hill and Graveman's numbers. Also noteworthy is the fact that Hill is a southpaw, while Graveman is a right-hander. (The Astros have really struggled vs. southpaws, while hitting considerably better vs right-handers.) Off a complete game victory to cap off a solid (3-1, 3.83 ERA) May, McHugh is in fine form. He's got a 3.38 ERA and 0.985 WHIP his last three, striking out an impressive 26 while walking only three. McHugh should be happy to see the A's as he's 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in five starts against them. The last time he faced them, he allowed only four hits and one run through eight complete innings, an easy 5-1 victory. In fact, he's 3-0 in three all-timhome starts vs the A's, allowing just one earned run in each start, the Astros winning by a combined margin of 16-3. I see another victory in store for the home team. 10* GOAT. (Thanks for the memories and RIP to The Greatest.)

I'm playing on Oakland and Houston to finish OVER the total. While I won with the Astros 'under' the total yesterday afternoon, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair this evening. Hahn has a 4.91 ERA his last three starts, all three of them finishing above the total. He's only made one road start and it didn't go well, as evidenced by his 6.75 ERA and 2.251 WHIP on the road. He walked four without striking out a batter in that game. He's backed by an Oakland bullpen which has a combined 5.10 ERA on the road. Fister has a poor 4.74 ERA at home. The OVER is already 15-9 in Oakland road games, those games averaging a whopping 10.4 runs. I see this one also reaching double-digits. 10* 

I'm playing on NY. After playing a 13-inning game on Wednesday, the Mets got a much needed day off yesterday. The Marlins weren't so fortunate, as they played 12 innings against the Pirates. With Koehler, who averages only 5.2 innings per home start, on the mound, yesterday's game could take a toll. While Koehler has a 4.50 ERA and 1.648 WHIP, Synergard has a 1.87 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Koehler has 39 K's vs. 35 walks on the season, Syndergard has 79 K's vs. only nine walks. While he was tossed from his last start, Syndergard has a 0.00 ERA his last three, striking out 24 without walking a batter. Syndergard is backed by a NY bullpen which has a 2.41 ERA (2 blown saves) on the road, the Marlins bullpen has a 3.69 ERA at home, with six blown saves. The Mets are already a perfect 6-0 on the season when playing with a day off and all signs point to another victory here. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians got back on track with a much-needed win in yesterday's finale vs. Texas. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game vs. KC. The Indians should be thrilled to have Carrasco back as he's got a 2.45 ERA on the season and he had a 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP in his previous three starts, prior to going on the DL. The Indians have won every game that he's started this season. While Carrasco will likely be on a pitch count, the Cleveland bullpen has been respectable (3.66 ERA, 1.263 WHIP) and he should be staked to a lead by the team he exits the game. That's because Ventura is really struggling right now. In five road starts, he's 1-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.769 WHIP. Over his last three starts, after giving up six earned runs last time out, he's got a 6.27 ERA. The Indians already hammered Ventura this season while Carrasco tossed a 1-hitter the last time he faced the Royals, a 6-0 win last September. Note that he had 15 K's in that game. In fact, over his last three starts vs KC, Carrasco has allowed only two earned runs in 22 innings, striking out 32, while winning those three games by a combined score of 16-4. Indians win again. 10* 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies badly need a victory and this evening's matchup should provide them the perfect opportunity. While he's only 2-2 (Phillies are 3-2) in five home starts, Eickhoff has pitched very well here. Averaging 6 2/3 innings per home start, he's got a stellar 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Anderson, on the other hand, is 0-4 with a 5.33 ERA in five road starts. He's also 0-2 (team is 0-3) with an ugly 7.54 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in three starts vs. the Phillies. The Brewers have had success here in recent seasons. That changes tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on Arizona and Houston to finish UNDER the total. The Diamondbacks have been on an extended "over" streak, one which continued (barely) in yesterday's opener. I expect it to finally come to an end this afternoon though. While neither Greinke or Keuchel have pitched up to their potential so far this season, both remain highly capable and both have shown encouraging signs. Greinke, in fact, has actually been terrific on the road. He's 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four road starts. His troubles have come at Chase Field. As for Keuchel, he's off a strong start against the Angels. He limited them to just three hits and two runs through seven complete innings. He didn't walk a batter. Keuchel's last four starts vs. Arizona have all been of the "qualty" variety, as he allowed two earned runs or less in all four, while going 6,6, 8 and 6 2/3 innings. Greinke faced the Astros once last season, a game which finished with a 3-1 final score. A similar result this afternoon won't surprise. 10* 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Off four straight wins, the A's are suddenly rolling. They've won those games by a combined score of 26-11, including an 12-3 blowout in the only one of those four which came against a southpaw starter. You may recall that 5/28 game (Hahn vs. Boyd) as I successfully backed the A's, noting how well they were hitting against left-handers. The A's enter this afternoon's game averaging 5.2 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting .272. By comparison, the Twins are hitting .218 vs. southpaws, averaging a mere 3.2 runs. Manaea, one of the A's top prospects, has started showing signs of his potential. He's posted quality starts in two of his last three, despite facing the likes of the Tigers, Rangers and Yankees. Needless to say, the Twins represent a step down in class. The Twins' relievers have a combined road ERA of 5.82 and they've converted only two of eight save chances on the road. Oakland relievers, on the other hand, have converted 76% of their saves overall and have a combined 2.95 ERA here at home. All things considered, this price could easily be higher. 10*

I'm playing on MIAMI. After getting embarrassed 10-0 in yesterday's opener, I'm backing the Marlins to respond this evening. Great pitching matchup here. While I respect Cole, who is admittedly in excellent form, there's no arguing with Fernandez's 21-1 career record (1.64 ERA) at Marlins Park. Fernandez is also 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA his past six starts. Fernandez and Cole have gone head-to-head twice, both those games coming in 2013. Neither factored in the decision in the game at Pittsburgh, a 5-4 win for the Pirates. However, Fernandez got the better of him in the game here at Miami, recording 13 K's without walking a batter through eight complete innings of a 3-2 Marlins victory. While Cole's recent numbers are certainly impressive, it should be noted that he has allowed 17 hits and four walks (against only five K's) in just 12 innings over his last two starts. That's 21 baserunners in 12 innings, a 1.575 WHIP. Fernandez has been far more dominant. Over his last three starts, he's allowed only 14 combined hits in 20 innings, striking out 32 while walking five. That translates to a 0.950 WHIP. Pitching on his favorite mound, look for Fernandez to get the better of Cole once again. 10*

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Orioles, 17-9 at home, are a profitable 93-79 (+15) off a loss the past couple of seasons. After dropping yesterday's opener, I expect them to bounce back this evening. Gausman has pitched a lot better than his 0-2 record suggests. Through seven starts, he's averaged six innings per outing while posting a solid 3.24 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. In three home starts, he's got a stellar 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Rodriguez, who hasn't started a big league game all season, was 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA /  1.40 WHIP in three starts vs. the O's last season, all of them Boston losses. Gausman's last home start against Boston saw him toss six shutout innings of 2-hit ball. Baltimore won 2-0. Even factoring in yesterday's result, the Sox are still 78-98 (-21.9) in divisional games the past few seasons, while the O's are 96-72 (+27.6). Given that this is Rodriguez's first start of 2016, I feel the price could easily be higher. 10*

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians were 9-4 against the Rangers the past couple of seasons and I look for them to have the edge in this evening's opener. Tomlin checks in with a 7-0 record. Averaging better than six innings per start, he's got a solid 3.35 ERA to go along with a stellar 0.98 WHIP. Note that Tomlin has made two career starts (2011 and 2014) vs. Texas and he pitched very well in each of them. The Rangers were originally scheduled to send Lewis to the mound but instead its Holland who gets the call. Ranger fans probably would have preferred Lewis. While he's been better his last couple of starts, Holland still has a horrific 9.68 ERA in May, going 0-3. He's also 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA on the road. Cleveland relievers have a combined 3.75 ERA and 1.285 WHIP, converting 83.3% of their saves here at home. Texas relievers have a combined 5.17 ERA and 1.471 WHIP, converting only 62.5% of their saves on the road. With the Indians averaging 5.5 runs per game at home and the Rangers averaging 3.8 on the road, I'm going with Cleveland. 10* 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves are suddenly playing well and they should have the advantage again this evening. Teheran has been excellent all season long. Through 10 starts, he's got a 2.57 ERA and 1.032 WHIP. Lately, he's taken his game to another level. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. Averaging better than seven innings per start in those games, he's recorded 20 K's while walking only three. Teheran hasn't gotten much help from the Braves offense but he figures to finally get some here. Koehler is 2-5 with a poor 4.79 ERA and 1.723 WHIP on the season. In five road starts, he's 1-3 (team is 1-4) with a 5.13 ERA and an awful 1.975 WHIP. In those five games, he's walked more (20-17) batters than he's struck out. While Koehler is 2-5 (team is 3-8) with a 4.24 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in 11 starts vs. Atlanta, Teheran is 5-2 (team is 8-4) with a stellar 2.71 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 12 starts vs. the Marlins. The Braves have already pounded Koehler once this season while the Marlins haven't seen Teheran since last year. The Braves reward the faithful with a 3-game winning streak. 10*

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I won with the A's yesterday afternoon and I'm coming right back with them again today. Hill is currently in outstanding form. He tossed eight shutout innings last time out, winning 5-0. He's now 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA his last three starts. The A's won those games by a combined score of 19-4. On the season, Hill is 7-3 with a super 2.18 ERA. He strikes out more than a batter an inning and he's only given up two home runs all season, none in recent starts. While Hill's numbers are excellent, Pelfrey's numbers are terrible. He's 0-4 with an ugly 6.32 ERA and 1.83 WHIP on the season. In nine starts, he's served up 10 home runs. Speaking of "terrible," Pelfrey is 0-3 with a 11.04 ERA and 2.113 WHIP in three starts vs. Oakland. He lost those games by a combined score of 29-5. The most recent of those came against Hill, who tossed shutout innings, striking out eight without walking a batter. When you think about it, this price could easily be higher. Hill gets the better of Pelfrey once again. A's win. 10* 

I'm playing on the NY METS. The Mets cooled off the Dodgers in yesterday's opener and they should have a significant edge on the mound again this evening. Syndergard already outpitched and defeated Maeda at LA a couple of weeks ago and the gap between the two has arguably widened since. Syndergard is in outstanding current form. Over his last three starts, he has 27 Ks against just one walk, while going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA. He hasn't allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts, striking out 21 without walking a batter. For the season, he's 5-2 with a 1.94 ERA. Maeda started out great but has since really come back to earth. He's 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA his last three starts, the first of those being the loss against the Mets. Maeda, who hasn't lasted more than five innings in any of his recent starts, is backed by an LA bullpen which entered the series with a poor 4.44 ERA on the road, already blowing seven saves on the road. Conversely, the Mets bullpen has only blown one save at home all season. Their bullpen entered the series with a 2.31 ERA here at NY. The Mets have thrived as medium-sized home favorites and I look for them to keep on rolling for another day. 10*

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Tigers took yesterday's opener but I expect the A's to have the edge this afternoon. Yesterday, the Tigers had a right-hander on the mound against a southpaw for the A's. That matchup has reversed this afternoon, which should favor Oakland. Hahn, a right-hander, has a solid 3.31 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in three home starts, the A's winning two of those. He made two starts against the Tigers last season and was 2-0 with a superb 0.56 ERA and 0.688 WHIP. In his lone home start against the Tigers, he tossed a complete game shutout. Boyd, a southpaw, is making a spot start, his first start of this season. He appeared in 13 games last season, starting 12 of them, and was 1-6 with a terrible 7.53 ERA. The A's are hitting much better against southpaws. They entered the series, averaging only 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handers (before scoring only 1 run yesterday) but a healthy 4.5 against left-handers. A's bounce back with a much needed home win. 10* 

I'm playing on Toronto/Boston OVER the total. The bats came alive for 12 runs in yesterday's opener and I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair this afternoon. Porcello has never pitched well here, as he's 2-5 with an ugly 7.15 ERA in seven appearances here at Toronto. He has failed to reach six complete innings in either of his last two starts and he's got a 4.67 ERA his last three. Stroman pitched well at Minnesota last time out but was roughed up for 13 hits and seven runs in his last start here at Toronto. He gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings, in an 8-7 game against Boston earlier this season. In five home starts, he's got a poor 5.51 ERA. 9*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Home wins have been few and far between for the Braves this season. This matchup should provide them with an excellent opportunity to get one. Through eight starts, Wisler has a stellar 2.98 ERA and 1.012 WHIP, averaging nearly seven innings per start. Over his last three starts, Wisler's ERA dips to 2.45. In his last two starts, Wisler has 14 Ks in 14 innings, walking only two, without allowing a home run. Peralta's numbers aren't nearly as good; he's 2-5 with an ugly 6.99 ERA and 1.921 WHIP. Wisler beat the Brewers last season and I look for him to get the better of Peralta this evening. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Winning streaks have been few and far between for the Astros so far this season. I expect them to win their second straight this evening though. McHugh was much better than Wilson last time out. McHugh allowed two runs through seven complete innings, striking out eight and walking one. Wilson, on the other hand, allowed five runs in six innings, waking three while striking out only three. McHugh was also sharp in his most recent home start, allowing one run through seven complete innings. He got the "W" in a 5-1 Houston win. McHugh won his only home start against the O's, a 6-4 win here last June. I expect him to get the better of Wilson tonight, the Astros improving to 28-18 the last 46 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. 10*

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) With the Royals listed as favorites on the money-line, we're able to get the Twins at quite a reasonable price on the run-line. I feel thats where the value lies in this one. The Royals are off back-to-back 1-run games. Kennedy's last start resulted in a 1-run win. Note that Kennedy got roughed up in his last road start and has a mediocre 4.02 ERA in five road starts, where he's allowed six of his seven home runs. Admittedly, Nolasco's numbers aren't that good. The Twins have won two of his three home starts though, the other resulting in a 1-run loss. (So, they'd be 3-0 if getting +1.5 runs in each of his starts here.) Nolasco pitched very well (at KC) against the Royals earlier, allowing just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. He struck out five without walking a batter. That one also resulted in a 1-run loss, a 4-3 win for the Royals. I'm expecting AT LEAST another "cover" for the Twins tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on LA/SD to finish UNDER the total. Maeda has come back to earth his last couple of starts. However, both those were home night games. He's back on the road, for a day game, at PetCo and I expect him to pitch well. Not only do the Padres average just 2.9 runs per game at home, but Maeda has a 0.98 ERA and 0.818 WHIP on the road. Rea beat the Dodgers 5-2 at LA earlier, allowing two runs in six innings. At home, he's 2-1 with a respectable 3.52 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. With yesterday's result, the Dodgers have now seen the UNDER go 12-7 in divisional games while the Padres have seen the UNDER go 12-7 for all games in the month of May. More of the same on Sunday afternoon. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Royals check in as the hotter team and they've taken the first two games of the series. I expect the Sox to have the advantage this afternoon though. Rodon's overall numbers admittedly aren't that great. However, a closer look reveals that he's actually been very good at home, with the exception of one bad start here to start the season. His last three starts here have all been of the "quality" variety, as he allowed 2, 3 and 2 earned runs, going a minimum of six complete innings in each. In fact, dating back to last season, six of his last seven home starts have been "quality" ones. Rodon, who will have the advantage of facing KC for the first time, will take on a Royal linuep which is averaging a mere 2.8 runs per game vs. southpaw starters. He's backed by a Chicago bullpen which has a 1.74 ERA here at home. Ventura's numbers are pretty ugly, particularly on the road where he's 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. In his four road starts, he has 17 walks vs. just 11 strikeouts, never a good sign. Overall, he's got 31K's and 29 walks. By comparison, Rodon has 47 K's vs. 17 walks. Rodon and the Sox bounce back. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rangers took yesterday's opener but I expect the Astros to bounce back this evening. Fiers was really sharp last time out. He limited Cleveland to three hits and one run, through seven complete innings. The Astros are 4-1 in his five home starts this season. Pretty good when considering that they're just 6-10 in all other home games. Since last summer, Fiers' teams (Milwaukee and Houston) are 11-3 when he's started at home. As for Fiers, he's now allowed four or fewer earned runs in 16 straight home starts. Ramos has a solid 3.48 ERA through his two starts, a span of just 10.3 innings. However, a closer look shows that he's also got a poor 1.936 WHIP. Combine that with two HR's allowed in less than 11 innings and he's been fortunate. In four games, two starts, two relief appearances, right-handed hitters are batting .340 against him. With Ramos unlikely to "go the distance," note that the Texas bullpen had a combined 5.61 ERA and 1.555 WHIP (7 blown saves) so far this season, entering the series. Houston's bullpen, on the other hand, had a 3.88 overall ERA and a 2.39 ERA and 0.921 WHIP here at home. Astros bounce back. 10*

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Yankees took yesterday's opener but I expect the A's, who had won five of their previous six, to bounce back tonight. Sabathia, who is coming off the disabled list, goes for the Yankees. He's been roughed up in each of his last two visits to Oakland, allowing 11 combined runs in 12 innings. The Yankees are 0-3 the last three times that Sabathia started here and Sabathia's teams are just 3-9 his last 12 starts here. He'll face an Oakland lineup which is hitting much better vs. southpaws than it is vs. right-handers. While Sabathia has a respectable 3.81 ERA, he's also got a fairly highl 1.553 WHIP. I won't be surprised if he struggles tonight. Its true that Gray has had some problems of late. However, he made an adjustment midway through his last start and I expect him to be better tonight. Here were some quotes from after his last start. Manager Bob Melvin: "I think Sonny pitched way better, especially later in the game too. His issue's been getting the ball up, and that's when his ball flattens out a little bit. He gets the ball down, then he has a lot of good movement on it, and you don't see the hard contact. He pitched better as the game went along there at the end. I think he found something." Catcher Stephen Vogt: "He got his movement down in the zone back and I think for him he felt it and was excited when he came out of the game." The A's won both of Gray's 2015 starts vs. the Yankees. He tossed eight innings, allowing just two runs and four hits, in his lone home start vs. NY last season. I look for Gray to get the better of Sabathia, the A's bouncing back and tying up the series. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Both these teams could really use a victory. I expect the Jays to have the edge. Estrada has been extremely consistent since coming to Toronto and he's doing it again this season. Through seven starts, he's got a stellar 2.89 ERA and 1.145 WHIP. Even off a subpar start at Texas, he's still got a superb 0.895 WHIP his last three starts. Santana, on the other hand, has a 1.675 WHIP his last three starts. While Estrada averages more than six innings per start, Santana averages less than five. Note that the Jays' bullpen has a 3.87 ERA (1.372 WHIP) compared to a 4.85 mark (1.529 WHIP) for Minnesota. The Jays are already 5-2 (+2.4) as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range, a role which has been profitable for them the past few seasons. Estrada won his lone 2015 start against the Twins while Santana lost his lone 2015 start vs. Toronto. Jays win. 10*

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cards have continued to dominate the Rockies here in recent seasons. Last night's 2-0 victory brought them to 7-2 (+3.6) the last 2+ seasons, as a host in this series. I believe that they're offering solid value again tonight. Wacha didn't have his best game last time out, although he wasn't helped out by his defense either. He's still got a stellar 2.08 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in four home starts though. The last time he faced the Rockies, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits. The Cards, who were laying -235 for that game, won 7-0. While Gray has admittedly pitched very well his last couple of starts, he still has a poor 4.71 ERA overall. Despite the Rockies playing at Coors, its the Cardinals who are averaging more runs. St. Louis averages 5.4 rpg compared to Colorado's 5.0. The Rockies bullpen has a 4.37 ERA compared to the Cards' 3.17 mark. The Rockies have blown five saves, compared to the Cards' bullpen having blown two. Cards win again, Colorado falling to 6-14 its last 20 off a shutout loss. 10* 

I'm playing on SD on the Run Line (+1.5 Runs) This game has the lowest O/U line on the board and with an expected low score, every run takes on added significance. That said, with Pomeranz on the mound at Petco, getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Padres at a reasonable price is providing excellent value. Pomeranz is in outstanding current form. Indeed, he's 2-1 with a 0.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. He'd be 3-0 if not for being on the wrong side of a 1-0 loss against Kershaw. Last time out, he struck out 10 Cubs in six shutout innings, allowing a mere three hits. In two home stars, he has yet to allow an earned run. Note that Pomeranz's lone 2016 start (4/25 at SF) against the Giants resulted in a 1-run SD loss. Cueto's lone 2016 start against the Padres came the following day (4/26) and resulted in a 1-run SF win. Even off b2b losses, the Padres are still 4-3 their last seven overall. Two of the three losses came by a single run. So, they'd be 6-1 their last seven, if getting +1.5 runs in each. In fact, prior to yesterday, their previous four losses had all come by a single run. Even with yesterday's loss, the Padres have still won 12 of the last 20 as a host in this series and they'd be 14-6 in those games, if getting +1.5 in each. I expect AT LEAST a "cover" again tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on Seattle and Baltimore to finish UNDER the total. Both teams have been involved in a number of high-scoring games recently. The Mariners went over the total by themselves in yesterday's game. I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening though. Tillman is in outstanding current form. He tossed seven shutout innings last game, winning 1-0. That brings him to 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA in eight starts. He's striking out more than a batter than a inning and has only allowed one home run all season. In six home starts, he's 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA. While he wasn't at his best (4 runs, 5 2/3 innings) last time out, Walker has been excellent overall. In seven starts, he's got a 2.63 ERA and 1.088 WHIP, striking out 38 in just under 38 innings. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in those games. (*Note that Walker was actually pitching great in his last start as he had 8 Ks and had allowed only two hits through 5 shutout innings. All the damage came on a single pitch, as he served up a grandslam.) In two road starts, Walker has a 1.12 ERA and 0.165 WHIP. While Walker can't necessarily be expected to go into the late innings, he's supported by a Seattle bullpen which has a 1.56 ERA and 0.853 WHIP overall. The UNDER is 18-7 the last 25 times that the O's were off a shutout loss and I'm expecting those stats to improve here. 10* 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks ended their home losing streak in a big way last night, taking the series opener by a 12-2 score. I expect them to carry the momentum into tonight's game. Its true that Greinke hasn't been what Arizona hoped he would be. Not yet, at least. I still think its too early to write the former Cy Young winner off though. He's been too good, for too long. He's been showing signs of coming around lately, going six or more innings in each of his last three starts while allowing 2, 2 and 4 runs. With the bats having come to life and with Pineda on the mound, a similar performance should be good enough for the "W" tonight. Early inning problems have led to Pineda posting a 6.28 ERA and 1.603 WHIP, through seven starts. NY is just 2-5 in those games, Pineda 1-4. Pineda, who averages only 5.5 innings per start, is backed by a NY bullpen which has an awful 6.23 ERA on the road. That's not good, particularly with the Yankee offense averaging only 2.7 runs per game on the road. Diamondbacks win again. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TORONTO. The fight on the way out of Texas seemingly sapped the Jays of their energy, as they didn't show up for yesterday's series opener vs. the Rays. Off an embarrassing 13-2 loss, I expect them to bounce back with their best effort this evening. Stroman is 4-0 through eight starts (2-0 vs. TB) and he's averaging a full seven innings per start. He hasn't given up a single home run in four home starts and he's got a stellar 2.14 ERA his last three overall. Archer still has outstanding stuff but he's dealing with some control problems right now. He walked four again last time out, lasting just five innings. Through four road starts, he's 1-2 with an ugly 7.08 ERA and 1.918 WHIP. Stroman gets the better of Archer (again) and the Jays bounce back. 10* A.L Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Texas and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. With games here averaging just 7.2 runs per game on the season, I feel this O/U line is a little high. True, Holland has struggled in his last couple of starts. Facing an Oakland team which is only 45-61 against southpaws the past couple of seasons, and which is averaging only 3.1 runs per game at home this season, figures to help. Keep in mind that prior to his last two starts, Holland was 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA. He last pitched here in 2014 and allowed just one run, on only four hits, through 6 1/3 innings. True, the Rangers bring some solid offensive stats to the table. Those numbers are build up on what they do at Texas though. On the road, the Rangers are hitting only .245 while averaging just 3.9 runs per game. Eleven of their 17 road games have fallen below the total. Admittedly, Manaea hasn't gotten off to a great start. He's regarded as one of the A's top prospects though and he was 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA at Triple-A. Manaea has a lot of potential; catching the Rangers off yesterday's brawl, I won't be surprised if he tonight is the night that he shows it. The UNDER is already 5-1 when the A's have played a home game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5 and I expect those stats to improve here. 10* 

I'm playing on LA/STL to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total. However, I'm expecting a well-pitched series finale. If you look at his overall stats (1-3 record, 4.58 ERA) you'd think Wood has been pretty bad. Overall, yes. However, its important to look a little deeper than that. In Wood's case, he's been an entirely different pitcher on the road than he has been at home. In four road starts, he's got an awful 8.05 ERA, all four of those games finishing above the total. However, life here in LA has been treating him much better. In three starts here, Wood has a superb 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP, averaging nearly seven innings in each. Not surprisingly, all three of Wood's starts here stayed below the total. Wood will have the advantage of starting against the Cards for the first time. Leake also seems to like life in Southern California. Last time out, pitching at Anaheim, he held the Angels to one run through eight complete innings, notching his first win as a Cardinal. The last time that Leake faced the Dodgers, he tossed a complete-game 2-hit shutout. In fact, he was really strong in both his 2015 starts against them, allowing a combined two runs in 16 innings. Both games stayed comfortably below the total, scores of 5-0 and 2-1. For his career, six of Leake's seven starts against LA have stayed below the total. I'm expecting "more of the same" tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These same two starters opposed each other on 10/1 last season. Bauer outpitched Duffey that day and left with the lead. (Duffey was decent, allowing six hits and two runs through 6.3 innings but Bauer allowed only two hits and one run through seven complete innings.) However, the bullpen blew it and neither starter factored in the decision. I expect Bauer, who tossed seven shutout innings in his last start, to get the better of Duffey again this afternoon. To be fair, Duffy has pitched better than his 0-2 record suggests. He's only averaging 5.5 innings per road start though and his 1.364 road WHIP is nothing to write home about. (He was also worse on the road last season, posting a 4.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP compared to a 1.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home.) Bauer is backed by the better hitting lineup and the superior bullpen. Indians bounce back. 10* 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Giants have taken the first two games of this series but the Diamondbacks should have the edge tonight. Corbin's last two starts against the Giants (both last September) resulted in 6-0 and 6-1 Arizona victories. Through those two games, Corbin tossed 13 scoreless innings, striking out 10 without walking a single batter. Speaking of "scoreless innings," Corbin was masterful last time out, as he allowed just five hits through seven shutout innings. That's a lot more than Peavy can say, as he's been downright brutal. Indeed, he's 1-4 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.912 WHIP. Last time out, in one of his "better" starts, he still walked five batters in five innings. Over his last three starts, he's 0-3 with an 11.08 ERA and 2.154 WHIP. For the season, he's 0-3 with a 14.25 ERA and 2.5 WHIP on the road. Look for Peavy to remain winless on the road, the Dbax getting back on track with a much-needed home win. 10* N.L Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NY and Colorado to finish OVER the total. The Mets' bats have been cold of late. That's led to five of six games finishing below the total. I expect things to change this evening though. The Mets pounded Butler when they saw him at NY last season. In four innings, they scored six earned runs off him. Now, they get to face him at Coors, where he's 2-5 with a 6.80 ERA in eight starts. To his credit, Verrett has filled in nicely when called upon. Still, he's a 'spot starter' only getting the call due to Martz missing a start. For whatever reason, the Mets bats have thrived on Saturdays in recent seasons (37-21-2 Over record L60, 4-1 this season) and I look for them to "get healthy" again here, the OVER improving to 25-15 the last 40 times they were road favorites of -125 or less. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Rays could really use a win and this should be an excellent opportunity for them to get one. Despite having to fly across the country to make a spot start, Andriese was very impressive in his season debut, enough so that he earned another start. Through seven complete innings, Andriese allowed just four hits and one run. The Rays would beat the Angels 3-1, the last time they won a game. Andriese has been called up before only to be sent down. He knows this is his chance and he's determined to make the most of it. Andriese figures to get some decent run support, as Graveman has been terrible. He's 0-3 with a 10.53 ERA and 2.195 WHIP his last three starts. In those three starts alone, a span of less than 14 innings, he's given up seven home runs. Even with yesterday's win, the A's are still just 2-9 on the month. Tampa bounces back. 10* A.L. Personal Favorite

I'm playing on St Louis and LA to finish UNDER the total. Wacha and Stripling were teammates (and roommates) at Texas A&M; the former Aggies should both be a little extra motivated for this one.  Stripling was extremely sharp last time out as he limited the Jays to one run on just a single hit through six innings. He struck out six without walking a batter. While he wasn't at his very best (4 ER, 6 innings) last time out, Wacha has been very solid overall, posting a 3.12 ERA. He's still delivered quality starts in five of his last six; three of his last five starts have fallen below the total. Wacha has been outstanding against the Dodgers. He faced them twice back in 2013 and allowed 0 runs in each start, a combined 13 2/3 innings. He didn't face them in 2014 but started against them twice last season, most recently allowing one earned run through seven complete innings. That was his lone start here at LA. Stripling has seen the UNDER go 5-0-1 in six starts, 3-0 the last three. Lastly, the UNDER is also 14-4 the last 18 times these teams faced each other, the last three games here at LA averaging less than four combined runs. With a pair of friends facing each, I'm expecting another well-pitched affair. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on SF. The Jays have taken the first two games of the series. This afternoon, I like the Giants to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Both starters are in excellent current form. Stroman has a 3.60 overall ERA and a 2.91 mark his last three starts. Bumgarner has a 3.14 overall ERA and a 2.25 mark his last three. With 55 K's in 43 innings, Bumgarner is a little more dominating than Stroman, who had 36 K's in 50 innings. Perhaps more importantly, Stroman has allowed four home runs in three road starts (23 innings) while Bumgarner has permitted just one in four home starts, a span of 27 innings. The Jays are just 8-11 the past 19 times they played a road game with an O/U line of less than 7.5. During that span, the Giants are 76-61 at home with an O/U line of 7.5 or less. That's almost identical to their 76-60 (+10.9) mark during day games, during the same span. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* 

I'm playing on Chicago and Texas to finish UNDER the total. Tough loss for anyone that played the 'under 9.5' in yesterday's opener. That game was 1-0 going into the sixth inning and 2-1 going into the eighth. Even when it got to 4-4 in extra innings, there was still hope. Texas would kill that hope by scoring four in the top of the 12th. Thankfully, we avoided that one. Assuming this evening's all southpaw affair won't have any extra inning grand slams, I'm expecting a(nother) relatively well-pitched affair. Holland got roughed up at Toronto last time out. (That was fine as we had a play on the 'over.') He's been outstanding at home though. In two starts here, he's 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He'll face a Chicago team which is averaging only 3.0 runs vs. southpaw starters, while hitting .207. Not surprisingly, given those numbers, the UNDER is 4-1-1 when the Sox faced a southpaw. Texas hasn't hit particularly well vs. southpaws either. The Rangers are averaging only 3.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters, hitting .244. Rodon has already seen the UNDER go 5-0-1 this season, 2-0-1 on the road. He's got a stellar 2.70 ERA in those three road games. Rodon has delivered quality starts all three times he's faced Texas, compiling a 2.41 ERA while seeing the UNDER go 3-0. Those games averaged just five runs with scores of 4-3, 3-2 and 2-1. More of the same tonight. 10* 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves haven't had too many bright spots so far this season but Matt Wisler has been one of them. Through six appearances, five starts and one save, he's got a solid 3.24 ERA and an excellent 0.90 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .175 against him. Last time out, he allowed a single hit through eight shutout innings. Morgan, on the other hand, has yet to go more than five innings. After giving up three runs in only four innings last time out, he's got a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. While Wisler is 0-1 against the Phillies, Morgan is 0-3 against the Braves. Atlanta last won when Wisler was on the mound, a 3-0 victory against Matt Harvey and the Mets. I look for Wisler to also get the better of Morgan, en route to a much-needed win for the Braves. 10* 

I'm playing on NY. Neither team is where they'd like to be. While the Royals have a better overall record, the Yankees have been the better team of late. With a victory in yesterday's opener, they've now won four of six. They should have a considerable edge on the mound again this evening. While he's only 1-0, Tananka has quietly been very good. Through six starts, he's got a 2.29 ERA and 0.915 WHIP. He hasn't gotten any run support, so has no wins to show for it, but in his last three starts Tanaka has an outstanding 1.66 ERA and 0.831 WHIP, averaging better than seven innings per start. He's got 19 K's vs. just two walks in those three games. Tanaka should finally get some run support as Medlen is in terrible current form. Over his last three starts, he's 0-3 with an awful 11.45 ERA and 2.273 WHIP. Averaging less than four innings, he's walked more (9) than he's struck out (7). Last time out, he allowed nine runs (6 earned) in just two innings. I'm going with Tanaka. 10*

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves aren't favored too often these days but I feel they're favored for good reason today. Teheran gets the call and he's in excellent current form. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings, limiting the Cubs to just two hits, while striking out nine. Over his last three starts, he has a superb 1.40 ERA and 0.931 WHIP. Needless to say, Miller would love to beat his former team. He's really struggling right now though. Through six starts, he's 0-3 with an awful 8.48 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. In two road starts, he's got a 9.81 ERA and 2.997 WHIP. Teheran is 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.069 WHIP against the Dbax over his career, 3-0 his last three starts against them. Braves reward the home faithful with a rare win. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SF/Col UNDER the total. The Giants have been on quite an 'over' streak recently but I expect it to come to an end this afternoon. Gray was really sharp last time out. Through six complete innings, he allowed only four hits and one walk, while striking out 11. Any time you have twice as many K's as walks and hits combined, its generally a pretty good sign. Note that Gray will have the advantage of starting against the Giants for the first time. Cueto's return to Cincinnati didn't go too well. However, he's been failry stingy here at SF. He's averaging better than seven innings a start here, striking out 22 (against just three walks) in 23 innings. Cueto has always had success against the Rockies, even at Coors. His last three starts against them have seen him allow a combined four runs in 24 complete innings. (That's a 1.50 ERA!) Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 2-0-1 in those games, 5-2-1 in his career vs. Colorado. I expect a well-pitched affair. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on DETROIT. After getting roughed up at Cleveland, the Tigers should be happy to return home. They should be really happy to have Zimmerman, the reigning A.L. Pitcher Of The Month, on the mound. All Zimmerman did in April was go 5-0 with a 0.55 ERA. He's trying to become the first Tiger to win his first six starts since 1929 and I like his chances. Hamels avoided the loss but he didn't look very good last time out. He lasted only five innings and gave up four earned runs - twice as many as Zimmerman has allowed all season - walking four batters along the way. While Zimmerman will have the advantage of starting against the Rangers for the first time, the Tigers are familiar with Hamels. Most recently, they saw him in a late September game last season. The Tigers got to him for six runs in six innings of that one. He's got a poor 4.74 ERA in three starts against Detroit overall. After the poor results in Cleveland, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said this of his team "I hope our guys are a little ticked right now." I expect them to play like it here, Zimmerman potentially re-writing history along the way. 10*

I'm playing on Toronto and Texas to finish OVER the total. I lost with the 'over' in yesterday's game, as Toronto's 'under' streak continued. That won't prevent me from coming back with the 'over' in this evening's all southpaw affair though. Admittedly, Holland has pitched pretty well. However, he should come back to earth against a team that has given him trouble over the years. He gave up six runs in just two innings in his last start against the Jays and he's got a 6.44 ERA in eight starts against them overall. Note that Holland has never had an O/U line this low against the Jays and that his last four starts against them ALL produced nine or more runs, averaging 12.25. Happ usually gives the Jays a chance to win but he's also usually good for a few runs. He gave up two home runs last time out, after giving up one the previous game. The bats started out hot last night, only to cool off. Tonight, I look for them to "stay hot" the entire way. 10* 

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Dodgers won big yesterday but I look for the Rays to return the favor this evening. Smyly has been MUCH better than his 1-3 record indicates; he's got a 2.60 ERA and 0.692 WHIP. He's averaging 6.9 innings per start and has an impressive 41 K's (in 34.7 innings) against just six walks. Over his last three starts, his ERA dips to 1.29. Wood also pitched well last time out. He's been horrible on the road though. In three starts away from LA, he's got an 8.36 ERA and 2.071 WHIP. Wood is backed by a Dodger bullpen which has a poor 4.81 ERA on the road. Look for the Rays to bounce back. 10*

I'm playing on Texas and Toronto OVER the total. The Jays have been on an 'under' streak but I believe it'll come to an end tonight. Lewis has a solid 3.19 ERA. However, a 1.452 WHIP shows that he's still gving up quite a few baserunners. Last time out, he allowed nine hits in seven innings and didn't record a single strikeout. He can't be too happy to be visiting Toronto. He's 3-6 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.708 WHIP at Toronto. Sanchez was sharp last time out. That was at Tampa though. In two starts here at Toronto, he's got a poor 6.10 ERA and 1.646 WHIP. Look for the bats to come alive, the final combined score finishing above the number. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on SD and Colorado to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's series opener was of the low-scoring variety but I expect to see the bats come alive this evening. Cashner got rocked at SF last time out and he now has a 4.94 ERA and 1.446 WHIP on the season. Walking four in 2 2/3 innings in his last start doesn't bode well for him against a Colorado team which has given him trouble. The Rockies always benefit from hitting at Coors but they're also averaging a healthy 4.9 runs per game on the road, even after managing only one last night. Note that Cashner is just 1-3 with a 4.89 ERA in six starts vs. the Rockies, four of those finishing above the total. Butler pitched here last May, his only start against the Padres. He lasted just four innings and the final score finished at 14-3. Butler, who had an ERA above four at Triple-A, is 4-11 with a 5.99 ERA as a major leaguer. He was last seen last September, getting torched for six runs in four innings. It should also be mentioned that both bullpens have ERAs above five. Sure, this game is at PetCo but games here aren't as low-scoring (averaging 8.6 runs) as everyone tends to think. All things considered, this number could easily be higher. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Tigers have taken the first two meetings, I like the Twins to avoid the sweep here. Nolasco didn't get the decision last time out but I liked the fact that he had 9 Ks vs. 0 walks. For the season, he now has 24 K's against only three walks, which is pretty impressive. Pelfrey, on the other hand, has more walks (12) than K's (9). Not surprisingly, Nolasco's other numbers are also much better. He's got a 3.25 ERA and 0.904 WHIP compared to a miserable 6.33 ERA and 1.968 WHIP for Pelfrey. While he should finally get some run support, it should also be noted that Nolasco is backed by a Minnesota bullpen which has a combined 1.81 ERA. May has been a very good month for Minnesota as the Twins are 33-23 (+16.6) in May the past two seasons. With an edge on the mound, I expect them to start the new month with a much needed win. 10*

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Jays took yesterday's opener but the Rays should have a strong shot at evening things up today. Archer got back on track in a big way last time out. He tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings, limiting Baltimore to five hits, while striking out 10 and walking none. Tampa won 2-0. While Happ has indeed been very consistent, he's not nearly as capable of Archer as delivering that type of dominate performance. (They've pitched a nearly identical number of innings yet Archer has three times as many K's.) Note that Happ has only been mediocre against the Rays, posting a 4.01 ERA over nine starts. Archer, who struck out 12 Jays on Opening Day, has fared better against Toronto, sporting a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Including the earlier victory over Happ, the Rays are 4-2 against southpaw starters, hitting .267 and averaging five runs per game. That's a lot better than the Jays' .223 road average and/or their 3.7 runs per games scored on the road. Additionally, the Jays' bullpen has a combined 4.19 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while the Rays' bullpen has a combined 2.98 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. Archer builds off his last outing and TB bounces back. 10* 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. After getting swept by the Phillies, the Nats figure to be happy to hit the road. Strasburg gets the call and he's been great (3-0, 2.17 ERA) this season, particularly on the road. In two road starts, he's 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA. Leake hasn't been nearly as good, as he's 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.567 WHIP through four starts. Strasburg has pitched well (2.80 ERA, 0.896 WHIP) against the Cards but is winless against them. Look for that to change tonight as he gets the better of Leake en route to the "W." 10* NL Personal Fav

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Hughes has been better than his 1-3 record indicates, as he's gone at least six innings in all four of his start while allowing three earned runs or less every time. Last time out, he gave up just two runs over seven complete innings. While he was on the wrong side of a 2-0 pitcher's duel in that one, Hughes should get some support here. While Fulmer is considered to be the Tigers' top pitching prospect, lets not forget that he had a mediocre 4.11 ERA in three starts at Toledo or about his 6.14 ERA during spring training. Molitor said this of Hughes' last start: "He was aggressive, especially inside. He just did a nice job. He stayed aggressive, he was strong, kept his pitch count down. So he did everything he could to give us a chance." Look for Hughes to again "give his team a chance" only this time, I look for them to make the most of it. 10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Orioles red hot start is ancient history. They've now dropped three straight and are 4-8 their last 12. Things don't get any easier this evening. The Rays have won four straight here and they should have an edge on the mound here. The Rays are a perfect 3-0 when Matt Moore has pitched at home. Averaging better than six complete innings, Moore has a stellar 2.95 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in those three starts. He striked out more than a batter an inning and in his last home start, he recorded 10 K's without walking a batter. While Moore is averaging better than six innings a start, Tillman is averaging less than five. He's got a poor 4.42 ERA overall and he got rocked (6 earned runs, 5.3 innings) in his lone road start. These pitchers opposed each other last September. Moore was outstanding, as he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings, striking out nine without issuing a walk. However, the bullpen blew it for him and Tillman, who would have been on the hook for the loss, was saved. The O's haven't seen Moore since while the Rays already got a look at Tillman this season. Rays keep on rolling; O's keep on reeling. 10*

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Sox are rolling and today's matchup should provide an opportunity for another victory. The Jays haven't hit southpaws well so far and Sale continues to be as nasty as any pitcher in the league. He's now 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.667 WHIP. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.17 ERA and 0.522 WHIP. The only reason we get Sale at such a low price is because of the venue. If the game were played at Chicago, obviously, the Sox would be much bigger favorites. Sale is in the type of form where it doesn't matter where he pitches though. In two road starts, he's averaging eight complete innings while compiling a 1.69 ERA. In his last two starts, he's allowed 1 uneared run on two hits (no walks) AND 0 runs on two hits (no walks.) Unlike most pitchers these days, Sale is always a threat to "go the distance" and pitch the full nine innings. However, it should be noted that he's backed by a Sox bullpen which has a 1.41 ERA on the season. Meanwhile, Dickey checks in with a 6.10 ERA (10.80 here at Toronto) and a 1.693 WHIP. Dickey also has an ugly 7.50 ERA in seven starts vs. Chicago while Sale has pitched well every time he's faced the Jays, compiling a 2.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Look for Sale to get the better of Dickey, Chicago's win streak continues for one more day. 10*