I'm playing on NY/TB UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Yesterday's series opener was relatively low-scoring, the Yankees winning 5-1. Runs figure to be at a premium again today. Gray continues to be stingy. He's got a stellar 2.29 ERA and 0.966 WHIP his last three starts. Snell had a sup-par outing against Minnesota last time out. I'm willing to cut him a bit of slack though, as he'd previously been in excellent form. Prior to facing the Twins, he'd recorded a superb 0.87 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in his previous three starts. In six starts against the Yankees, Snell has a very solid 2.89 ERA. His most recent home start vs. NY resulted in a 2-0 win. Gray has faced the Rays twice in 2017. Both starts were of the "quality variety" and Gray recorded 16 combined K's in 12 1/3 innings. Expect another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). This is a mismatch and the line could easily be even higher. The Diamondbacks send Greinke to the mound and he's got a 1.83 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's a dominant 13-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.905 WHIP here at home. The Dbax are 14-2 (+12.1) when he starts here. On the other hand, Freeland has a 4.48 ERA and 1.548 whip in 11 road starts. He's 0-2 his last two starts, one of those a 9-5 loss vs Arizona, giving up eight combined runs (6 earned) in just 7 1/3 innings. While the Dbax just saw Freeland a little more than a week ago, the Rockies haven't seen Greinke since he held them to three hits through seven innings on 7/1. As for the high price, consider that the Dbax, who have also dominated southpaws, are a lucrative 17-6 (+5.1) the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. Snakes roll. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* PERS FAV). The Cubs have been embarrassed in the first two games of this series. I expect them to respond like champs this afternoon. Both starters are in excellent current form and both have had strong seasons. That said, Hendricks has a superior overall ERA and WHIP. He's also had considerably more success against the Brewers this season, than Davies has had vs. the Cubs. Two of Davies' three 2017 starts vs. Chicago have resulted in Milwaukee losses. On the other hand, the Cubs are 3-0 in Hendricks' 2017 starts vs. the Brewers. Going back further finds that Hendricks' teams are 9-4 in his 13 career starts vs. Milwaukee, Hendricks with a stellar 2.74 ERA and 1.018 WHIP. Cubs bounce back.  

I'm playing on TORONTO (10* PERS FAV). Though he doesn't have anything to show for it, Anderson is off back-to-back solid starts. Two outings ago, he allowed just one run through 5 2/3 innings. That was against the Red Sox, too. Last time out, he limited Baltimore to three runs through six complete innings. He didn't allow a single walk in either of those starts either. While the Jays couldn't provide him with any run support in either of those starts, Anderson should get some today. Bell has made just one start and it didn't go well. In four innings, he allowed eight hits and five runs. He walked two batters while only striking out one. He lost 11-1. Jays bounce back with a much needed win. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). This might seem like a steep price to lay, on a team which is struggling as much as the Dodgers. However, I believe that last night's blowout loss - with Kershaw on the mound - represented the "bottom point." With a very capable and motivated Darvish on the mound, I expect them to finally bounce back and right the ship tonight. Even with last night's loss, the Dodgers are still 19-7 the last 26 times that they hosted the Rockies. As for the steep price, the Dodgers are 27-8 (+10.2) on the season, as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. Going back finds them at 63-24 (+14.2) in that role. Enough's enough. Dodgers win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). Given the current form of the starters, this line could easily be higher. Yet, because Nola has a relatively "big name" (for a Phillies pitcher) and because Roark has a relatively "small name" (for a Nats pitcher) its still priced quite fairly, imo.

Though he didn't get a "W" to show for it, Roark allowed just one run through seven dominant innings last time out, striking out 10 along the way. That gives him a 1.29 ERA in September. He was 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in July, opposing hitters batting .186. In August, he was 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .200. Seven of his last nine starts have been quality. 

Nola, on the other hand, got roughed up last time out. He gave up 10 hits and six earned runs, in five innings. He's now allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last four.

Roark has allowed just 10 combined earned runs in six career starts vs. the Phillies. Two of those six starts (both in 2016) came against Nola. In those two games, Roark allowed ZERO earned runs through 14 innings. The most recent resulted in an 8-0 win for Roark and co. More of the same on Thursday night.

I'm playing on BOSTON (10* PERS FAV). Last night's "Boston Marathon" victory figures to provide the Red Sox with some much needed energy, after an exhausting game. On the other hand, the devastating loss figures to have a deflating effect on the Jays. Throw in the fact that Fister has an outstanding 1.57 ERA and 0.652 WHIP his last three, compared to Biagini's ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over his last three and this line could easily be much higher. Note that the Jays lost those three games by a combined score of 23-3. The worst of those was a 15-1 loss at the hands of these same Red Sox. Boston wins. 

I'm playing on Chicago/TB to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Giolito will come in with plenty of confidence, as he's off a gem in his last game. Making his second start, all he did was toss seven shutout innings, limiting the Tigers to just three hits. Andriese returns to the rotation and he's got a 2.53 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's 5-1 with a 3.54 ERA in 12 starts. His lone start against the Sox (2015) saw him allow just two unearned runs. Both teams rank near the bottom of the A.L. in runs scored; I'm expecting a relatively well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* PERS FAV). These starters just faced each other on 8/27, at Cincinnati. While Taillon didn't factor in the decision, Mahle did take the loss. That was Mahle's first big league start. Now, he'll have to make his second against the very same team which just beat him. Having the support of a poor Reds' bullpen, which has a combined ERA above five on the road, doesn't help matters. Expect the Pirates to finish on top.  

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* PERS FAV). Peters, who celebrated his 25th birthday yesterday, gets a nice bday present with this matchup. Peters, who went 6-2 with a 1.97 ERA in nine starts in the minors, will face a Phillies team which averages less than four runs per game on the road. He'll also be opposed by Pivetta, who is 3-6 with a 7.27 ERA on the road this season and who is in terrible current form. He made five starts in August, a span which lasted only 18 2/3 innings. During that stretch, he allowed a whopping 24 earned runs. That translates to an awful 11.57 ERA. Yikes. While it may be his debut, expect Peters to be the more composed rookie out there today, the Fish bouncing back to even the series.

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Both teams lost yesterday. However, while the Marlins lost one game against Strasburg and the Nats, the Phillies were swept in a double-header by the Braves. Two losses in a day figures to take a bigger toll than does the Marlins' single setback. Despaigne was sharp last time out, his lone home start. In fact, he allowed just three hits and one run, through six complete innings. Thats a lot more than can be said for Lively. Indeed, Lively allowed more home runs (4) in his last start, a span of only five innings, than Despaigne did hits. The Marlins average 4.5 rpg at home, compared to the Phillies 3.9 rpg on the road. Marlins draw first blood. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Playing at Tampa, their temporary home away from home, the Astros got hammered yesterday. However, they should be able to bounce right back this evening. Keuchel is already 2-0 against the Rangers this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 2/3 combined innings. In fact, dating back to a complete game shutout last August, he's 3-0 his last three against Texas allowing only one earned run 21 2/3 innings. During that stretch he allowed just 12 hits, while striking out 21. Houston won those three games by a combined score of 14-2. On the other hand, Cashner is 0-4 in four starts against Houston this season, losing by a combined score of 27-10. Overall, Cashner is 3-6 with a 4.50 ERA. Keuchel, on the other hand, is 5-1 with a dominant 1.51 ERA and 0.857 WHIP at "home." While the price may initially seem steep, consider that Houston is 39-11 (+17.3) its last 50 when listed as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Playing in their "temporary home," I fully expect the Astros to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* GAME OF WEEK). Both teams had yesterday off. The Reds figure to be more "refreshed" from the day off though. They played a single early game on Sunday, here at Cincinnati. They also had a day off on 8/21. The Mets, on the other hand, played a day-night double-header on Sunday, at Washington. Yesterday was their first day off in ages. 

Romano has really been improving this month. He's gone at least six complete innings in four of his five August starts. Over his last two starts, he's allowed one run in seven innings and two runs in seven innings. Last time out, he struck out seven Cubs. Flexen has only made three road starts and he's got a terrible 8.18 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in those games. While the Mets have dominated the Reds in recent seasons, expect that to change tonight. *GOW

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). The Phillies have dominated the Braves this season, particularly here at Philadelphia. With Nola on the mound, that figures to continue for at least another night. While Nola is off a couple of sub-par starts, a date with the Braves figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Nola is 4-1 with a superb 2.08 ERA in six starts vs. the Braves. The lone "L" came in a game where he allowed just two earned runs (+ 3 unearned) through seven innings. In his lone start against the Braves this season, Nola allowed just one run through eight complete innings. On the season, he's 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 10 home starts, averaging nearly seven innings per start. Sims, on the other hand, has only made two road start. In those games, he's got a poor 5.23 ERA to go along with an ugly 1.839 WHIP. Expect Nola and the Phillies to continue their winning ways in the series. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 runs, 10* ANNIHILATOR). After facing right-handed starters in each of the first two games of this series, Chicago will see a left-hander for this afternoon's finale. Thats noteworthy, as the Sox have hit better against southpaws than they have against right-handers. This particular lefty, Matt Boyd, also happens to be in terrible current form. In five August appearances, four starts, he's 0-2 with an awful 10.19 ERA and 2.32 WHIP. Thats downright terrible. For the season, Boyd is 5-7 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.

The Tigers have been struggling, too. Entering the weekend, they'd lost nine of their last 11. Meanwhile, Chicago entered the weekend off three straight wins and with victories in five of its past seven. Yet, the Tigers still opened as favorites on the moneyline. That means we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the home team at a very reasonable price, which I believe is providing excellent value. 

The Sox send Lucas Giolito to the mound for his second start. In his first start, Giolito went six innings. While he took the loss, I liked the fact that he was the first Chicago pitcher in more than a decade to go six or more innings, without walking a batter, in his debut. I like him to get the better of Boyd on Sunday afternoon, the Sox earning AT LEAST a "run-line cover."

I'm playing on BOSTON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). After getting pounded yesterday, expect the Sox to bounce right back this afternoon. Rodriguez has faced some fairly tough opposition of late (NYY, STL, CLE) and yet has a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.118 WHIP his last three starts. He had some trouble with the long ball and lost his last start vs. the O's. However, he'd won each of his previous two starts against them, each of them quality starts. In fact, he allowed just two combined runs, on only five hits, in those 12 2/3 combined innings. On the other hand, Gausman is 0-3 his last three against Boston, allowing 11 combined earned runs in 12 2/3 combined innings. For his career, he's 2-6 with an ugly 5.11 ERA in 11 starts against the Sox. This season, Gausman has an awful 5.51 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 13 road starts. Over his last three starts, he's got a 6.06 ERA. Last time out, he gave up four long balls in four innings. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Marlins have a lot things working in their favor here. A few of those include: They're playing at home, where they're above .500. The Padres are 23-40 on the road. The Marlins played an early game at Philadelphia yesterday. The Padres played a later game at St. Louis. The Padres hit .219 against southpaw starters, averaging 3.2 runs. The Marlins hit .262 against southpaws, averaging four runs. SD relievers have a combined 5.19 ERA on the road. Miami relievers have a combined 3.42 ERA at home. Conley is off back-to-back strong starts and he was dominant last time out. In seven complete innings, he allowed just three hits while recording 11 K's. Wood, in fairness, was also sharp last time out. That was at pitcher-friendly Petco though and his two K's (compared to Conley's 11) show he wasn't exactly dominating hitters the same way. Also, he's still got an ugly 8.10 ERA in two road starts. Additionally, Wood is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts against the Marlins. Meanwhile, Conley's lone start against the Padres saw him allow just one run through six complete, good for a 1.50 ERA. All things considered, this line could easily be higher. *GOW

I'm playing on SD/St. Louis UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). The opener of this series produced 16 runs, the Padres winning 12-4. Yesterday's game saw half as many, the Cards responding with a 6-2 victory. I expect this evening's finale to be the lowest scoring of the bunch. Martinez has made three starts against San Diego. Two of the three stayed below the number. All three were of the "quality" variety. Overall, he had a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in those games, striking out 16 against just four walks. For the season, Martinez has a solid 3.57 ERA and that dips to 3.36 here at home. His 1.095 WHIP here suggests the ERA could potentially be even better. Perdomo may not be in the same class as Martinez but he's still fairly capable. He's gone six or more complete innings in six straight starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in half of those, including two of the last three. Going back further finds that he's gone at least six complete innings in 15 of his last 20, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 12 of those. The UNDER is now 37-27-3 the past 2+ seasons, when the Cards were listed as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). In a battle for the Wildcard and with a big series at Fenway looming, this is a game that the Orioles really need. Bundy, who has been given a little extra rest for this one, is 3-0 with a superb 2.14 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his last three starts. The most recent of those was a victory over these same A's on 8/12, Bundy fanning 10 Oakland hitters in six innings. Gossett, who has been recalled from Nashville, is expected to for for Oakland. He had a poor 5.17 ERA in his first stint with the A's. In addition to likely having the superior starter, the O's have both the stronger bats and the better bullpen. All things considered, the price could easily be higher. Baltimore bounces back.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Orioles in yesterday's opener and I'm coming right back with them again today. Prior to yesterday's win, the O's had lost four of their previous five. After this series, they play three fames at Fenway. With that potentially difficult series on deck, this is a series and matchup which the O's need to take advantage of. They're now 7-1 their last eight as a host of the A's. 

These starters faced each other at Oakland 11 days. Neither factored in the decision but Jimenez was arguably much better. While he did allow three runs, he also recorded a dominant 11 K's in 5 1/3 innings, walking only one. Blackburn, on the other hand, gave up four runs on 10 hits, lasting 5 2/3 innings. 

True, Jimenez can be inconsistent at times. I like the fact that he's got 13 K's against only two walks his last two starts though. I also like the fact that he's 4-1 (team is 6-2) in eight starts vs. the A's. The last time that Jimenez faced the A's in this park was last season. Entering that game, he was winless in his previous four starts. However, he tossed eight complete innings - striking out the side in the eighth - and allowed only two runs. Baltimore won 5-2.

Jimenez figures to get some support here. In his last two starts, Blackburn has given up 18 hits, while also walking five, in just 9 2/3 innings. Yikes. The O's have been outstanding as mid-sized home favorites in recent seasons. Expect that to continue here. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). The O's should be happy to see 36-year old Chris Smith. In seven appearances, six starts, Smith is 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA. That ERA climbs above seven (7.04) in three August appearances, as he's already been taken deep five times in 15 1/3 innings this month. Unfortunately, for Smith, it was these same Orioles who accounted for four of those home runs, doing so in just six innings. Twice, the O's took Smith deep in back-to-back at bats. Trey Mancini was involved in both cases. Afterwards, Smith commented: "That guy's on fire right now, and I ran in there with a gas can on my back." Baltimore would go on to win 7-2. Getting to see Smith for the second time in less than two weeks, expect the Oriole bats to again come to life, the home fans ultimately leaving happy. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). While the Reds took yesterday's opener, this should provide an excellent opportunity for the Braves to bounce back with a victory. Admittedly, its been a tough season for Teheran. That said, he's going to be bringing a lot of confidence into this evening's game. Last time out, he was dominant. Pitching at Colorado, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits, while striking out eight. Stephenson has only made three starts and he's failed to go six complete innings in any of them. He's 0-2 (Reds are 0-3) with an ugly 5.28 ERA and 1.631 WHIP, walking 11 batters in 15 1/3 innings. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Reds are terrible on the road. Look for Teheran to outpitch and outlast Stephenson, en route to a "W" for the home team. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). Even off yesterday's loss, the Rockies are still a lucrative 37-23 (+9.4) here on the season. This should be an excellent spot for them to bounce right back. Marquez wasn't as his best last time out. However, he's been pretty solid overall. The Rockies are a profitable 7-2 (+5.2) in his nine home starts. He's got a 4.31 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in those games, pretty respectable given the venue. Marquez faced the Brewers once last season, delivering a quality start. Through six complete innings, he allowed two runs, striking out seven against one walk. On the other hand, Garza is 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA vs. Colorado. Note that Garza also has an awful 7.53 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in three August starts. Walking nine batters, while also serving up five long balls, in 14 1/3 innings, is a recipe for disaster. Rockies roll. 

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* PERS FAV). The Rangers have taken four of six meetings with the Sox here the past couple of seasons. They should have a signficant advantage for this evening's opener. While the Rangers played here against Detroit Wednesday evening, earning a convincing 12-6 win, the Sox were busy playing a late game on the West Coast, at LA. Blowing that one in the bottom of the 9th figures to have made for a long trip.

Ross, who had previously been on the DL, returned to the rotation last time out and picked up a "W." That followed a strong minor league effort in his final tune-up. While walks were a bit of an issue, he allowed just four hits through 5 2/3 innings. Importantly, he kept the ball in the park. Thats more than can be said for Lopez. Making his first start of the season, he was taken deep twice. Ross is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA as a starter vs. the Sox, 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA against them overall. Rangers roll. 

I'm playing on BOSTON (10* PERS FAV). Off yesterday's loss against the Indians, I expect the Red Sox to bounce back with a big win in tonight's opener against the Cards. Admittedly, its been a trying season for Porcello. That said, he's been showing signs of coming around and I quite liked what I saw from him last time out. In six complete innings, Porcello limited the Rays to two runs, on just four hits. He'd go on to record seven K's against only two walks. Leake was far more hittable in his last start. In fact, he gave up a whopping 11 hits in just five innings. While he got bailed out with a lot of run support in that game to avoid a loss, he's 0-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.625 WHIP his last three. The Boston bullpen entered the new week with a stellar 2.30 combined ERA and a 1.104 combined WHIP at home. St. Louis relievers, on the other hand, have a 3.98 combined ERA on the road. These same two starters faced each other, at St. Louis, back in May. The Sox finished on top with a 5-4 win. With Porcello in better current form, look for the Sox to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). Making his first major league start since returning from testicular cancer surgery, Bettis is going to be extremely motivated here. The Braves should be an excellent first opponent. Not only are the Braves currently struggling, but the Rockies have absolutely dominated them here. Also, Bettis is 3-1 (team is 4-1) in five starts vs. the Braves. Last time that he faced them, he allowed just one run, on only four hits, through 6 2/3 innings. Additionally, Teheran is in terrible current form. Over his past two starts, he's allowed eight earned runs in 10 innings. Over his last three, he's allowed 16 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. That translates to a 9.82 ERA. It all adds up to a win for the home team. 

I'm playing on Boston/NY to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U MAIN EVENT) Yesterday's game produced 15 combined runs. I don't expect to see even half that many this evening. Sale just continues to do his thing. Last time out, he tossed eight shutout innings, recording 13 K's. Boston won 2-0. For the season, he's 8-3 with a dominant 2.37 ERA and 0.868 WHIP on the road. Montgomery has an excellent 0.976 WHIP his last three starts, all three of those finishing below the total. Last time out, he allowed only three hits through five innings, striking out seven without walking a batter. The UNDER is 6-3 when Sale has faced the Yankees. Sale has an extraordinary 1.36 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in those games. In two 2017 starts against them, he's recorded 23 K's against two walks and two earned runs. Naturally, both games fell below the number. All signs point to another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). Given the current form of the starters, this price could easily be higher. Nola has a superb 1.89 ERA his last three starts. On the other hand, Matz is 0-2 with a terrible 9.45 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, Matz has a 5.78 ERA. Nola has a 3.12 ERA overall and that includes an excellent 2.87 ERA (1.069 WHIP) here at Philadelphia. The fact that he's got a winning record, on this team, shows how good he's been. Expect Nola to outpitch and outlast Matz, en route to a win for the home team.

I'm playing on Colorado/Miami to finish UNDER the total 10* TOTAL OF WEEK. The UNDER is 7-1 the last eight times that the Rockies played here. With both starters in excellent current form, I expect those stats to improve this evening. Gray has a 2.84 ERA his last three starts, recording 18 K's in 19 innings. Last time out, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. Urena has a stellar 1.29 ERA over his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs through 14 innings. For the season, through 24 games (18 starts) Urena is 10-5 with a solid 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. At home, his ERA dips to 3.49. Urena has made two career starts against Colorado. Both of those games stayed comfortably below the total, finishing with scores of 5-1 and 3-2. Gray's lone start here at Miami finished with a score of 5-1. More of the same on Friday. *T.O.W.

I'm playing on NY (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Phillies can't be too happy to see deGrom and the Mets coming to town. The Mets are 15-7 (+5.3) against them the past 2+ seasons, a perfect 3-0 here at Philadelphia this season.

After going a minimum of six complete innings, deGrom went just five innings last time out. It wasn't exactly his fault, however, as he'd allowed three runs and had recorded eight K's. He's still 12-5 (6-2 on the road) with a 3.36 ERA and 1.168 WHIP on the season. He's also still averaging nearly seven innings per start and he's now up to 170 K's (46 walks) in 144 innings.

A date with the Phils should provide the perfect opportunity for deGrom to "get back on track." He's a perfect 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in nine starts against them, his team going a perfect 9-0. The Mets won those nine games by a combined score of 50-22.

The Mets figure to provide deGrom with some run support. Velasquez walked six batters in just five innings last time out. For the season, he's 1-4 with a poor 5.55 ERA here at home. The Phillies have lost both his 2017 starts against the Mets, Velasquez allowing eight earned runs (and walking seven batters) in 11 combined innings. 

The last time that deGrom faced the Phillies he was a -260 favorite. He recorded 12 K's and allowed only one run, on just three hits. With this game at Philadelphia, we're getting a far more reasonable price. I expect the competitive deGrom, who wasn't happy (broke his bat) to be pulled last time out, to continue his dominance, the Mets, who are a lucrative 37-20 (+8.6) the past 2+ seasons as road favorites in the -125 to -175 range, starting the trip with a much needed win. *August GOM

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* PERS FAV. I won with the Twins on Monday, in the first leg of this 4-game home-and-home series. With another win yesterday, the Twins would go on to "sweep" the two games at Minnesota. However, with the series shifting to Milwaukee, I expect the Brewers to bounce back with a big win. Woodruff, who was formerly Milwaukee's "minor leauge pitcher of the year," was supposed to make his debut a couple of months ago, but got scratched due to injury at the last minute. He finally made his debut on 8/4 and the wait was worth it; he was outstanding. Woodruff would toss 6 1/3 shutout innings, earning a 2-0 victory at TB. Colon did manage a complete game last time out, earning his first win as a Twin. That said, he's still 1-5 with an ugly 7.33 ERA and 1.768 WHIP on the road this season. When Colon pitched here at Milwaukee earlier, he avoided a loss but gave up 10 hits and six earned runs in just five innings. Brewers roll.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* PERS FAV). The Red took yesterday's opener and I expect them to follow it up with another victory this evening. Romano has a stellar 2.87 ERA his last three starts. In his most recent home start, he tossed six innings, allowing a single run on just three hits. He had seven K's against just one walk, the Reds ultimately winning by a score of 6-3. Perdomo has had real issues away from Petco. In eight starts away from San Diego, he's just 1-4 (Padres are 1-7!) with a 4.57 ERA to go along with a poor 1.742 WHIP. Overall, he's got a 4.82 ERA and 1.607 WHIP his last three. Reds continue to get payback from having been swept at SD last month. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). While the Brewers saw their winning streak snapped yesterday, the Twins closed out their series vs. the Rangers with a 6-5 victory. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Santana comes off a complete-game gem last time out. Through nine innings, he allowed just two runs on four hits. On the other hand, Suter allowed five runs (2 HRs) in 5 1/3 innings in his last start. Twins draw first blood. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Given the matchup and venue, the price on the Pirates could easily be higher, in my opinion. While the Pirates have thrived as medium-high priced favorites, the Padres are just 28-48 (-7.6) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. Lamet has made six road starts and he's got a terrible 7.22 ERA in those games, averaging less than five innings. Cole, on other hand, is in excellent form. In his last home start, he recorded 10K's without walking a batter, allowing just one run through seven innings. Including that gem, he's got a 1.80 ERA his last three starts, all of them Pittsburgh wins. In five starts vs. the Padres, Cole is 4-1 with a dominant 1.47 ERA. The Pirates have dominated the Padres in this park and all signs point to more of the same this evening.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE, 10* PERS FAV. The Tigers took yesterday's opener but I like the O's chances of bouncing back today. While Verlander, 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA on the road, has pitched well of late, Gausman (3-0 with a 0.44 ERA his last three!) has been even better. The Tigers, 2-5 the last seven times they were off three or more consecutive wins, remain a poor 23-32 on the road. Conversely, the O's are 33-22 (+9.8) at home. Baltimore bounces back.

I'm playing on COLORADO *10 ANNIHILATOR . All things considered this line could easily be higher. Marquez is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.871 WHIP his last three starts. Last time out, he recorded 10 Ks without walking a batter. That gives him 28 K's vs. only four walks his last three. On the other hand, Montero walked five batters against five K's last time out and is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA his last three. Mets 10-20 (-12.7) in day games while the Rockies are 27-13 (+14.4). Expect the home team to bounce back big. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Reds won big yesterday but the Pirates should return the favor this evening. Williams has only given up two home runs in seven home starts. With a 1.118 WHIP in those games, he could easily have a better record than he does. Last time out, he gave up only one run, on just five hits, through six complete innings. He didn't get any run support here and settled for a no-decision in a 2-1 loss. That doesn't figure to be an issue here though. Stephenson has been terrible. He's 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA and 2.174 WHIP in his three starts this season. He's also got a 9.00 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in two starts vs. the Pirates. Payback time in Pittsburgh. *GOW

I'm playing on Minnesota/SD UNDER the tota (10* BLUE CHIP)l. Santana is 7-2 with a stellar 2.59 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 10 road starts. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 7-3 in those games. For the season, he's seen the UNDER go 13-7-1 overall. Perdomo has gone at least six innings in each of his last two starts, keeping the ball in the park in each of those games. He's only given up three home runs in 10 starts here at Petco this season. Neither team has hit well in afternoon games. The Twins average 4.3 runs and hit .240 during the day. SD has been even worse. The Padres average a mere 3.4 runs, hitting a paltry .217 during the afternoon. While Perdomo will have the advantage of starting against the Twins for the first time, Santana is 2-0 with an outstanding 1.69 ERA in four career starts vs. the Padres, ALL of which fell below the number. More of the same this afternoon.

I'm playing on Philly/LA UNDER the total (10* NL O/U BEST BET). Nola, who will have the advantage of starting against the Angels for the first time, is in dominant form. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings. During that span, he allowed just four hits, striking out 10 against just one walk. That gives him a 1.42 ERA and 1.105 WHIP his last three starts, a 19-inning stretch which has seen him record 26 K's. Nolasco is off a quality start, his second in the last three games. The UNDER is 12-8-1 when he takes the mound and he's got a respectable 1.228 WHIP in 10 starts here. The former national-leaguer should be happy to see the Phillies as he's got a 3.46 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in 20 starts against them. Expect a relatively well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on NY/DET OVER the total (10* AL O/U BEST BET). Neither of these pitchers fared too well last time out. Sabathia lasted just 4 1/3 innings, giving up four runs. Sanchez was even worse. In 3 2/3 innings, he gave up four runs on nine hits. He now has an ugly 7.04 ERA and 1.89 WHIP his last three starts. With Sanchez averaging less than six innings per start, note that the Detroit bullpen has been brutal. (Detroit relievers entered the series with a 6.89 ERA on the road, converting only 52% of their save opportunities.) As for Sabathia, he's got a poor 5.64 ERA in seven home starts. Expect some fireworks to ring in the new month. 

10* BREAKFAST CLUB SUPER TOTAL on under Phillies/Braves. I think this number is a little high. The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz (9-5, 3.82 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Arizona on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings while also going on to strike out nine. Despite an 0-2 record in all “day” games “Folty” has a sparkling 2.38 ERA in such instances (is also a solid 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA on the road thus far as well.) The Phillies counter with rookie Nick Pivetta (3-6, 5.73) who comes in off an outing to forget against Houston on Tuesday, allowing five runs on six hits over six innings (did go on to strike out seven.) Pivetta is 0-2 at home with a 4.35 ERA. I like Foltynewicz to carry over his momentum into this one and I look for Pivetta to settle down and match him. With each of these starters going deep, this number seems a little high. Play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE St. Louis Cardinals. I like St. Louis to bounce back after yesteday’s 7-1 defeat. Arizona turns to Taijuan Walker (6-4, 3.47 ERA) who went six innings against Atlanta on Tuesday and gave up two runs off three hits and a walk while striking out six in a no-decision against Atlanta on Tuesday. Walker has been solid this year, but I think this is simply a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander, as note that St. Louis is 5-3 (+2 units) since the All Star game against clubs with winning records, while Arizona is just 6-8 (-3.8 units) against teams with losing records in the second half. Lance Lynn (8-6, 3.21) will look to take advantage for the hungry home side, he msot recently held Colorado to one run off three hits with six K’s over six frames in an unfortunate no-decision on Tuesday. Lynn is on fire right now, having given up just two runs over his last 25.1 innings of work (four straight quality outings.) All things considered I think this is a great price, Cards roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Marlins. I like the Fish to build off their 7-4 victory yesterday. The Reds turn to Tim Adleman (5-8, 5.11 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a loss to the Tribe on Monday. Adleman has been a disaster of late, he actually entered that contest having posted a 6.53 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through his previous six outings (is a poor 1-5 with a 5.23 ERA on the road.) Miami counters with Adam Conley (3-3, 5.62) who comes in off his best start of the year, holding the Rangers scoreless over seven innings to go along with five strikeouts on Monday. Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but recent form displayed by each suggests that Adleman and the Reds have another long night ahead of them. Marlins roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Boston Red Sox. I like the Red Sox to bounce back off yesterday’s 4-2 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Cahill (4-3, 3.69 ERA) who was good in a starters role for the Padres, posting a 3.69 ERA and 72:24 K:BB in 11 outings. Cahill comes into a rotation which features only two starters with an ERA below 4.00 and as good as he’s been overall, note that he’s still 0-3 with a 5.75 ERA on the road. Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 3.89) who comes in off an outing to forget after allowing four runs off six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to Seattle on Monday (striking out six.) It was his second start back from the DL and he’ll now look to get back on track at home, a place where he’s a stellar 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA thus far. KC is just 13-16 (-1.5 units) against southpaws this year, while Boston is 45-35 (+1.1 units) against right-handed starters. Red Sox roll. 

10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on the Seattle Mariners. The Mets turn to Rafael Montero (1-7, 5.19 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. To go along with his uninspiring 5.19 ERA, Montero also sports a ghastly 1.73 WHIP.  Montero has been better on the road than at home, but is still 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all “night” games this year. Seattle counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.30) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Saturday. Miranda has scuffled over his last three outings (failing to get out of the fifth frame), but has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA at home this season. New York is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last three as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while conversely the M’s are 15-9 (+2.3 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. I like Miranda to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the Mariners.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Miami Marlins. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor in this particular matchup. The Reds turn to Robert Stephenson (0-3, 8.10 ERA) who comes in off a horrible start against Miami on Saturday, allowing five runs off eight hits over five innings. So far Stephenson has been much better at home (0-2, 5.79) than on the road (0-1, 11.91.) Miami counters with Chris O’Grady (1-1, 5.40) who comes in off a no-decision against the Reds throwing opposite Stephenson last week, going on to allow three runs off four hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings. O’Grady posted a 3.29 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 in Triple-A and clearly has an upside with his strikeout ability. Cincinnati is just 1-2 (-1.4 units) in its last three against clubs with losing records, while Miami is 9-5 (+4.4 units) in its last 14 against teams with losing records. I like O’Grady to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Fish roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Washington Nationals. Both pitchers have likely exceeded expectations to this point, but each comes into this contest off a poor performance. All things being equal, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor in this particular matchup. Milwaukee turns to Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.43 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday (owns a 2.39 ERA at home and a poor 4.96 ERA on the road.) Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.83) gave up four runs off five hits over 5.2 innings in a 7-0 loss to the Angels on Wednesday. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Nats fan though I don’t think, as it was the first time since late May that he hadn’t lasted at least six innings, breaking a stretch of nine straight quality starts for the southpaw (note that Gonzalez owns a tiny 1.97 ERA at home this year as well.) I think Gonzalez bounces back at home and outlasts Nelson. Nats roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays haven’t thrown in the white towel on the 2017 season just yet and they’ll be looking to build off their 4-1 win yesterday. The A’s turn to Paul Blackburn (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who was rocked for four earned runs off six hits and a walk over 5.1 innings in a 7-5 loss to New York on Friday. Are Blackburn’s early numbers all “smoke and mirrors?” Perhaps, considering that he has just nine K’s over 25 innings of work. Toronto counters with Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.52) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Friday, giving up five runs off six hits over 4.2 innings. Estrada has struggled in 2017, but he does have the track record (back-to-back career best season’s for the Jays) and pedigree to start turning things around. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. I think Estrada bounces back and outlasts his still unproven counterpart. Jays roll.

10* GAME OF MONTH San Francisco Giants. Pittsburgh won large in last night’s 10-3 series opener in San Francisco, but I like the Giants to answer in Game 2. The Pirates turn to Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.06 ERA) who picked up a victory against Milwaukee on Thursday after giving up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out eight over 5.1 frames of work. Taillon has been solid for Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have struggled against southpaws all year by going just 11-13 (-1.2 units). Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 3.57) comes in off his second start since going on the injured list, giving up four runs off six hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a loss to San Diego on Thursday. So far Bumgarner has been better on the road (2.89 ERA) than at home (5.11), but we can expect this discrepancy to normalize and I think sooner rather than later (remember, Bumgarner was 9-4 with a 2.14 ERA at home last season.) Enough is enough. Look for Bumgarner to outduel his young counterpart with his best effort of the year. Giants roll.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays. I lost with Tampa yesterday, but I think it will bounce back on Tuesday. The Orioles turn to Wade Miley (4-8, 5.40 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out just three over five innings in a no-decision against Texas on Thursday. Miley entered that contest having posted a brutal 10.19 ERA over his previous eight starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road all year as well, just 2-4 with a 6.10 ERA. Tampa counters with Jacob Faria (4-1, 2.52) who looks to rebound off his first loss of his big league career after allowing four runs off six hits while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Oakland on Wednesday. Clearly some regression is imminent for Faria, but the rookie has been solid across the board and I don’t think there’s any need to hit the panic button if you’re a Rays fan. Faria had posted seven consecutive quality outings previous to this sub-par one and to go along with his sparkling 2.52 ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.08 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 for the year. And his peripherals in fact suggest that it’s no fluke either (3.51 FIP.) Faria has to be feeling confident he can bounce back as well as he’s already 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA at home this season. I think Miley’s monstrous struggles on the mound continue. Rays roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Detroit Tigers. The visitors turn to Danny Duffy (5-6, 3.51 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits while stirking out four over five innings in a victory over these very Tigers on Thursday. Duffy’s peripherals (3.49 FIP) suggest that better times lie ahead (is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games.) Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06) who looks to rebound off perhaps the worst start of his career, allowing eight runs (five earned) off seven hits over 2.2 innings on a loss to the Royals throwing opposite Duffy last week. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fulmer, who still owns an elite 1.11 WHIP and 3.33 FIP this season (he also has a 3.15 ERA in all “night” games.) After yesterday’s 5-3 defeat, I like Fulmer to respond in this situation and to atone for last week’s letdown. Note that KC is still just 19-23 (-3.2 units) against the division this year, while Detroit is 24-20 (+3.7 units) against divisional opponents. Tigers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on New York Mets. The visitors turn to their ace Jacob DeGrom (11-3, 3.37 ERA) in the opener of this three game set on the West Coast. DeGrom comes in on fire, most recently holding St. Louis to a single run over six innings in the eventual 7-3 win on Wednesday. DeGrom has now won seven straight decisions, allowing just nine runs over his last 53.1 innings of work while posting an elite 50:10 K:BB and a 1.52 ERA in the process (is 9-2 with a 3.58 ERA in all “night” contests this year.) Clayton Richard (5-10, 5.35) has gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on and was most recently rocked for 11 runs (ten earned) off 14 hits over 3.2 innings in loss at Coors Field on Wednesday. Unfortunately for Richard, home field has been anything but an advantage for him this year, going just 4-5 with a 5.49 ERA at Petco thus far. The Mets have struggled in almost every facet of the game this season, but they’re 4-2 (+2.2 units) in their last six against southpaws, while San Diego is just 1-4 (-2.7 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I think DeGrom comes in focused and I expect the Mets to roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa let a lead slip away late to Texas yesterday afternoon, but I think it’ll bounce back in the opener of this three game set against the visiting Orioles. Baltimore turns to Kevin Gausman (6-7, 6.11 ERA) who struck out eight Rangers while allowing just one run off four hits over six innings in the eventual 10-2 win on Wednesday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Gausman though, who comes to Tampa sporting a 2-4, 7.98 ERA record on the road. Blake Snell (0-5, 4.98) most recently gave up three runs over four innings to go along with six K’s in a no-decision against Oakland on Tuesday. Here’s another big opportunity for the second year pro to get off the schneid in facing the volatile Gausman. Note that Baltimore is just 15-16 (-1.7 units) against southpaws this year, while Tampa is 39-29 (+8.5 units) against right-handed starters. Rays roll.

10* ANNIHILATOR on the San Francisco Giants. I like the home side to build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory. The Padres turn to Dinelson Lamet (3-4, 6.40 ERA) who gave up six runs off four hits and four walks in a 9-7 road loss in Colorado on Tuesday. Clearly the sky is the limit for Lamet, who has a 95 MPH fastball, but who is still very raw (is just 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA on the road as well.) San Fran counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.36) who gave up one run off seven hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday. Blach has now posted three straight quality starts with a 2.33 ERA in the process (owns a respectable 3.57 ERA at home and is 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA in all “day” games as well.) Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Lamet has another long afternoon in store for him. Giants roll.

10* SUNDAY FEAST on the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox took Game 1 of this series 6-2, but then fell 7-3 last night. I think the hard-hitting visiting side will find a way to get the job done in the finale though. Boston turns to Rick Porcello (4-12, 4.60 ERA) who comes in off an unfortuante loss to the Yankees on Sunday after giving up three runs off nine hits while stirking out six over six innings. Porcello has now posted three straight quality starts. The Angels counter with Parker Bridwell (3-1, 3.18) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk in a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Bridwell has been solid this year, but does own a pedestrian 4.09 ERA at home thus far. Boston is 29-15 (+9.6 units) this season following a loss, while LA is 19-28 (-8.2 units) following a victory. Red Sox roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Kansas City Royals. I don’t think home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor in this particular matchup this afternoon. The White Sox turn to Derek Holland (5-9, 5.18 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Seattle on Sunday. Holland has been much better at home (3.72) than on the road (6.31) this season. The Royals counter with Travis Wood (1-3, 6.81) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up six runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings in a 9-3 loss to Detroit on Tuesday. Wood is likely now throwing for his spot in the rotation and he’ll look to take advantage of the fact that Chicago is just 19-32 (-3.9 units) on the road, while KC is 28-23 (+6 units) at home. I like Wood to at the very least match Holland inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the home side. Royals roll.

10* RUN-LINE ANNIHILATOR on the Baltimore Orioles. In a game which I foresee being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance. The Astros turn to Lance McCullers (7-2, 3.28 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back rough outings. McCullers has for the most part been as solid as Houston could have possibly hoped for this year, but his recent form suggests that rockier times are likely still ahead and that his early remarkable numbers are unsustainable. Baltimore counters with Dylan Bundy (9-8, 4.18) who gave up one run over six innings to go along with four K’s in a victory over Texas on Tuesday. Ultimately I’m expecting Bundy to at the very least match his struggling counterpart today, which swings the value to the home side with the added runs (RUN-LINE)

10* GAME OF WEEK on Colorado Rockies. I love the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s humbling 13-5 defeat. The Pirates turn to Chad Kuhl (3-6, 4.85 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee on Monday. Kuhl has looked better of late, but if he’s had one clear weakness this year it’s been his play in all “night” contests, where he’s gone a poor 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA thus far. Colorado counters with German Marquez (7-4, 4.34) who gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out nine over 6.2 innings in a victory over San Diego on Monday. His 4-2, 4.57 ERA record at home is impressive considering the venue. The Pirates are a poor 29-35 (-7.3 units) in all “night” games, while the Rockies are 31-28 (+3.9 units) this year in the same position. Everything points to some immediate revenge, Rockies roll.

10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL under Rangers/Rays. These teams played to an “under” yesterday and I think all signs once again point to a classic “duel” this evening as well. Texas turns to Andrew Cashner (4-8, 3.58 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to Baltimore on Monday. It was his second consecutive quality start (note that Cashner owns a respectable 3.60 ERA in all “night” games this year.) Tampa counters with ace Chris Archer (7-5, 3.91) who gave up two runs off five hits with nine K’s in an unfortunate no-decision against the Angels on Sunday. It was his fourth straight quality effort and he’ll now look to build off his 3-2, 3.70 ERA record at home. Texas has seen the total go under the number in five of seven as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range this season, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last six against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the under. 

10* AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco Giants. I think the Giants will bounce back after yesterday’s 12-9 defeat. The Padres turn to Luis Perdomo (4-5, 4.94 ERA) who gave up seven runs off six hits and three walks over 2.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Monday (note that he’s just 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA on the road.) San Fran counters with Matt Moore (3-10, 5.81) who gave up four runs (just two earned) off six hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to Cleveland on Monday. Moore for the most part has been a big disappointment this year, but he still owns a decent home ERA (3.99) and in all “day” games (3.67.) Both teams are playing out the second half without any hopes at making the playoffs. All things being equal, I think Moore has the advantage at home and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Giants this afternoon. Lay the price.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Cleveland Indians. Neither club can be happy with the performances of their respective starting pitchers this evening. Toronto turns to Marco Estrada (4-6, 5.33 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Detroit on Sunday. That makes it three straight starts that Estrada has failed to last past the fifth frame and he’s now allowed 23 walks over his last 24.1 innings of work (Estrada has been especially poor on the road as well with a 2-4, 5.63 ERA record.) Trevor Bauer (7-8, 5.59) can empathize with his counterpart, most recently he allowed four runs off three hits and three walks over 2/3’rds of an inning against the A’s (additionally he owns a pedestrian 4.75 ERA at home.) For arguments sake, let’s call these struggling starters a “wash.” Note though that TO is just 1-3 (-2.4 units) in its last four agaisnt right-handed starters, while Cleveland is 5-2 (+2.3 units) in the same position. I think this will prove to the difference, play on the Tribe.

10* BLUE CHIP under Cards/Cubs. Both starters come in off strong performances. The Cards turn to Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.36 ERA) who looked great in the All Star Game and then gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Sunday in his first start in the second half (owns a respectable 3.93 ERA in all road games to this point.) Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.17) gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out three over 6.2 innings in a win over Baltimore on Saturday. Arrieta is finally hitting his stride in 2017 as he’s held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. St. Louis has already seen the total go under the number in ten of 15 games in July, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after three or more consecutive wins. Play the under.

10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL on under Rangers/Orioles. Cole Hamels has been brilliant for the Rangers of late, while Wade Miley has been a disaster for the Orioles. While Hamels likely isn’t as good as his recent record would indicate, I also believe that Miley’s recent slide isn’t entirely indicative of his overall play either. Hamels (4-0, 3.05 ERA) most recently went 7.2 shutout innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Saturday (was the second straight start that Hamels has gone 7.2 scoreless innings.) Hamels has been spectacular in July, posting a 1.26 ERA and elite 12:1 K:BB. Miley (4-8, 5.40) was rocked for seven runs off nine hits and four walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a setback to the Cubs on Saturday (while he’s just 2-4 in Baltimore, Miley does own a 4.63 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.) The Rangers have seen the total go under the number in 11 of 18 against southpaws this year, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in 18 of 29 against lefties. This number is just a little high, play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE the Red Sox. All things being equal between these struggling starters, I think home field advantage will prove to be the difference for the hard-hitting Red Sox this afternoon. Toronto turns to Francisco Liriano (5-5, 6.04 ERA) who has been absolutely atrocious of late, posting a 7.04 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and 39 K’s over his last 47.1 frames of work (is just 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA on the road.) Doug Fister (0-3, 6.75) hasn’t been much better for the Red Sox, he most recently gave up three runs off four hits while striking out one over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. It was just an “appearance” though, coming in at the bottom of the 14th inning (so far he’s 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in all “day” games.) The Blue Jays though have been horrible on the road this year, just 21-26 (-4.4 units), while the Red Sox have excelled at home by going 28-17 (+3.7 units). As stated off the top, I think all things being equal, this one clearly favors Boston. Red Sox roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE New York Mets. I like the home side to bounce back after last night’s defeat. The Cardinals turn to Mike Leake (6-7, 3.14 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits and five walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. Leake has been solid this year, but so too has his counterpart. Jacob DeGrom (10-3, 3.48) gave up two runs off four hits while striking out 11 over eight innings in a 14-2 victory over Colorado on Friday. DeGrom would go on to throw 73 of his 104 pitches for strikes and he’s now given up one earned run or less and worked at least seven frames in five of his last six trips to the hill (he’s 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA at home as well.) I like DeGrom to continue his hot play and for the Mets to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Oakland Athletics. I like Oakland to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-3 defeat. The Rays turn to Jacob Faria (4-0, 2.00 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Friday. Faria has opened his MLB career by posting seven straight quality starts and has looked great overall, but I think this pace is clearly unsustainable. Sonny Gray (5-4, 3.72) and the home side will look to take advantage. Gray went six scoreless and allowed just two hits with five K’s in a victory over the hard-hitting Tribe on Friday. Gray has posted four straight quality outings, walking just five batters in that stretch (he’s 4-2 with a very resspectable 3.11 ERA at home and is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in all “day” games as well.) All things considered, I think this is a great price. A’s roll.

10* RUN-LINE SUPER PLAY on the San Francisco Giants (+1.5 runs). I think the home side bounces back after yesterday’s 5-3 defeat. Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.00 ERA) has been hot of late, but I’ll point out that the Indians are still just 4-11 (-13.6 units) in all interleague contests and just 2-4 (-2.4 units) in their last six following a victory. The Giants turn to Ty Blach (6-5, 4.60) who comes in off a victory against Detroit on Wednesday after holding it to three runs over six innings. Blach has been serviceable at best this year, but he’ll be looking to take advantage of the fact that the Giants are 3-1 (+2.2 units) in their last four as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright victory, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on San Fran (RUN-LINE.) 

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Marlins. I had a play on the Marlins last night and I like the home side to build off that victory. The Phillies turn to Vince Velasquez (2-5, 5.58 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start. Velasquez posted a 5.58 ERA and a poor 1.46 WHIP over ten starts and was particularly average on the road by going 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA. Adam Conley (2-2, 7.48) returns to the majors for his first start since May 8th. Conley could be heading back down to Triple-A shortly, so he’ll be looking to make the most of this opportunity (note that he was 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA at home last season.) Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but note that Philadelphia is just 1-5 (-4.6 units) in its last six against clubs with losing records, while Miami is 5-1 (+5 units) in the same position. I like these trends to continue and for Conley to step up and deliver the goods. Marlins roll.

10* PLAY on the Baltimore Orioles. Neither of these starting pitchers has performed well of late, making home field a big advantage in my opinion. Texas hands the ball to Tyson Ross (2-1, 5.33 ERA) who comes in off a decent performance, holding LA to just one run off four hits and two walks over five innings in the eventual victory. Ross owns a 4.07 ERA on the road and a 4.87 ERA in all “night” games though. Dylan Bundy (8-8, 4.33) was untouchable over the first month of the 2017 season, but has since regressed. Bundy now looks to bounce back with a strong effort to open the second half, note that he owns a very respectable 3.56 ERA at home so far this year. Texas is 11-13 (-1.4 units) on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125 this season, while Baltimore is 16-11 (+4.5 units) at home when the money line is set between +125 and -125. Bundy takes advantage of familiar surroundings and the Orioles roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Kansas City Royals. The Tigers hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (5-7, 5.87 ERA) who gave up five runs off eight hits and a walk over three innings in an eventual 11-2 blowout loss to the Indians on Friday (striking out just two.) Zimmermann has now allowed a whopping 17 runs over his last 19.1 innings of work and unfortunately for the struggling right-hander, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that he’s 0-4 with a 6.99 ERA away from friendly confines so far this season. KC counters with ace Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62) who owns the AL lead for wins and the second-best ERA. Vargas has to be feeling extremely confident in his first start back after the mid-summer classic as he’s 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in all night games and 7-1 with a tiny 1.84 ERA at home. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Zimmermann has another difficult night ahead of him. Royals roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Miami Marlins. Jerad Eickhoff (1-7, 4.63 ERA) is likely not as bad as his record would indicate, however that’s about all you can say about his first half performance for the Phillies. Eickhoff posted his first victory of the year over the Padres in his final start of the first half, but note that he’s been terrible in this spot all season, going 0-5 with a 5.05 ERA on the road and 0-7 with a 5.31 ERA in all “night” games. Tom Koehler (1-4, 8.00) has also been a big disappointment for Miami this year, although he also posted a decent outing in his last start, allowing three runs off four hits and three walks while striking out seven over five innings against the hard-hitting Cardinals on Thursday. So with these two confirmed “gas cans” going head-to-head, where does the advantage come from? Note that Philadelphia is just 1-5 (-4.6 units) in its last six against clubs with losing records, while Miami is 5-1 (+5 units) in its last six in the same position. Marlins roll.

10* TOTAL OF WEEK under Indians/Athletics. I think these two competent starters will battle into the latter frames, resulting in a lower-scoring final outcome. Trevor Bauer (7-7, 5.24 ERA) gave up four runs (three earned) while striking out seven over five innings in a loss to San Diego on Wednesday (Bauer does own a decent 3-1, 3.97 ERA in all day games this year.) The home side counters with ace Sean Manaea (7-5, 3.76) who gave up three runs off eight hits over seven innings in a loss to Seattle on Friday. Manaea has now given up three runs or fewer in nine of his past ten outings and is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home (and 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA in all day games.) The Indians have seen the total go under in 22 of 32 against southpaws this year, while the A’s have seen the total go under in three of their last four against right-handed starters. Play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Houston Astros. Yes, this is a steep price. However, I think it’s more than justified considering the talent discrepancy on the mound this afternoon. The Twins’ Kyle Gibson (5-7, 6.31 ERA) was rocked for seven runs off nine hits with two walks and one K over five innings in a loss to the Orioles on Sunday (has now allowed three or more earned runs in 11 of 16 starts this year and is just 1-5 with a 7.02 ERA in all “day” games.) The Astros’ Mike Fiers (5-4, 3.84) has been far from perfect this season, but he did finish the first half with a strong effort, giving up three runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in what turned out to be loss against Toronto on Saturday (was just the second time over his last six outings that he’s given up more than one earned run. Note that he owns a 2.89 ERA at home and a 2.91 ERA in all “day” games.) Minnesota is 1-4 (-1.5 units) as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range this season, while Houston is 13-3 (+7.4 units) as a home fav of -175 to -250. Astros roll. 

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE San Francisco Giants. I think the visitors will build off their victory on Friday. San Francisco hands the ball to Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 3.00 ERA) who makes his return to the rotation tonight after being away with a shoulder injury. The southpaw was strong in his final rehab outing, striking out eight over six innings of work. Before he went down with injury Bumgarner posted a 2.57 ERA on the road. Jhoulys Chacin (8-7, 4.32) gave up one run over six innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Saturday for San Diego. Chacin has looked better of late but is still a pedestrian 5-5 with a 4.00 ERA in all “night” games. The Padres also rank last in MLB collectively against left-handed starters in terms of weighted on-base average with a .276 mark. Giants roll.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL under Giants/Padres. San Francisco hands the ball to Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 3.00 ERA) who makes his return to the rotation tonight after being away with a shoulder injury. The southpaw was strong in his final rehab outing, striking out eight over six innings of work. Before he went down with injury Bumgarner posted a 2.57 ERA on the road. Jhoulys Chacin (8-7, 4.32) gave up one run over six innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Saturday for San Diego. Chacin has given up two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts and is 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA at home. The Giants have seen the total go under the number in six of eight already in July, while San Diego has seen the total go under the number six of seven this month. Play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Detroit Tigers. I like Detroit to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (5-4, 5.56 ERA) who gave up three runs off nine hits over six innings in a victory over the Astros on Thursday. To go along with his poor 5.56 ERA, the southpaw also sports a bad 1.62 WHIP (Liriano is just 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA on the road as well.) Tigers’ ace Michael Fulmer (9-6, 3.19) gave up two earned runs off seven hits across six innings in a 5-3 victory over Cleveland on Sunday. Through 17 starts Fulmer has a 3.19 ERA and solid 1.19 WHIP (the opposition is averaging just .238 and he’s served up just seven home runs to this point as well.) Fulmer is 5-3 with a 2.78 ERA in all “night” contests this season, which doesn’t bode well for Toronto as it’s just 22-32 (-16.6 units) in all night games this year. Detroit is 12-10 (+1.4 units) against left-handed starters. Tigers roll.

10* BLUE CHIP on under Rangers/Royals. The visitors hand the ball to Martin Perez (4-6, 4.60 ERA) and he’s been pretty mediocre this season. Perez’s last start before the break was skipped over, meaning he comes into this one tonight with ten days rest (has a 4.08 ERA in all “night” games thus far.) The home side sends Jason Hammel (4-8, 5.04) to the hill and he’s looked better of late, posting a quality effort in five of his last seven trips to the hill (over his last 43.2 innings of work he owns a solid 37:9 K:BB.) Texas has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 road games this year with a total of 9 to 9.5, while KC has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 28 this season when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. Play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE New York Mets. Jon Gray (2-0, 3.75 ERA) goes for Colorado tonight, he most recently gave up three runs off eight hits over five innings in a 5-3 win over Cincinnati on Wednesday (just 68 of his 108 pitches went for strikes.) He’s looked decent since returning from injury in two starts, but note that while Gray has a respectable 2.45 ERA at home, he has a poor 4.85 ERA on the road. Jacob DeGrom (9-3, 3.65) and the Mets will now look to take advantage of Gray’s home/road discrepancy. DeGrom most recently gave up four runs off eight hits over seven innings while also striking out five in a win over St. Louis on Friday. DeGrom has been far from perfect this year, but he’s been very solid and he has to be feeling confident in this spot as he’s already a sharp 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. I like DeGrom to continue his strong play at home and I expect Gray to continue to struggle on the road. Mets roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Boston Red Sox. Michael Pineda (8-4, 4.39 ERA) went just three innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Wednesday, getting rocked for five runs off nine hits (including three homers) while striking out just one in the atrocious performance. The Yanks’ “ace” has now allowed five or more runs in four of his last seven starts (over that four outing stretch he’s posted a dismal 11.00 ERA). Note that while Pineda is a respectable 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA at home, he’s just 2-2 with a 5.73 ERA on the road. Drew Pomeranz (9-4, 3.60) and the hard-hitting home side will look to take advantage. Pomerenz most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out six over six innings in an 8-3 win over Tampa Bay on Friday. The southpaw has now won three straight starts and posted a quality effort in four of his last five trips ot the hill (1.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 25:11 K:BB spanning 29.2 innings.) Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Boston could easily be a much bigger fav in this spot. Red Sox roll. PITCHING CHANGE UPDATE: Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65) has been called up to make this difficult start. Montgomery has been better than expected, but has a 4.01 ERA in all night contests. Granted Montgomery is likely an upgrade compared to the struggling Pineda, but regardless of that, this whole situation definitely favors Pomeranz and the home side. Play still active on Red Sox.

10* AL GAME OF WEEK on the Seattle Mariners. A’s rookie Daniel Gossett (1-3, 6.23 ERA) was most recently rocked for five runs off nine hits with no walks across five innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday. Gossett would throw first-pitch strikes to just 13 of 24 hitters and has now allowed five or more earned runs in three of his five starts this year (is just 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (3-3, 5.04) who was shelled for six runs off six hits and four walks in a 7-3 loss to KC on Tuesday. Hernandez though has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around and he has to be feeling confident in this spot as his team is 13-8 (+2.8 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range (conversely, the A’s are just 6-8 , -1.7 units this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. I like “The King” to get back on track, Mariners roll.

10* O/U BEST BET on under Brewers/Yanks. Jimmy Nelson (7-4, 3.20 ERA) gave up an unearned run off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a 6-2 win over Baltimore on Tuesday. Nelson surges into the break having won five of his last six decisions, while also posting quality efforts in each of his last 11 trips to the hill (he’s been particularly awesome in all “day” games as well, so far 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA.) Masahiro Tanaka (7-7, 5.25) comes in off a gem against the Blue Jays on Monday, holding Toronto to one run off five hits to go along with eight K’s over seven innings of work. After a miserable start to the 2017 camapaign, Tanaka closes the first half on fire, having posted three straight quality starts in which he’s given up just three earned runs spanning 21 innings. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that runs will be at a premium this afternoon. Play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Seattle Mariners. Chris Smith (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has made numerous major-league appearances as a reliever, but this is his first career start as he fills in for the injured Jharel Cotton. Andrew Moore (1-1, 3.60) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently went eight innings and gve up three runs off five hits with four K’s in an unfortunate loss to the Royals on Monday. Moore has eight K’s with zero walks over 15 innings in his two major league starts. Oakland is just 14-27 (-10.5 units) on the road this year, while Seattle is 8-5 (+2.1 units) in its last 13 at home. I like Moore to outduel his couterpart. Mariners roll. 

10* O/U BEST BET on the under Indians/Tigers. Justin Verlander (5-5, 4.96 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Sunday, allowing seven runs off nine hits and three walks over 3.1 innings in a setback to the Tribe on Sunday. This was just Verlander’s second “dud” of the season, as he’d give up no more than three earned runs in any of his previous six outings. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (4-3, 3.33) who comes in off a gem against these very Tigers on Sunday, allowing two hits and five walks to go along with seven K’s. Clevinger nas how posted 16 K’s and given up just two runs over his last 12 innings of work. Detroit has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 31 this year against clubs with winning records, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 24 of 38 against teams with losing records. All signs point to runs being at a premium in this one, play the under.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on St. Louis Cardinals. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (3-5, 5.01 ERA) who gave up two unearned runs off two hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Saturday. Wheeler has struggled of late as he came into that one having given up 15 runs off 14 hits over two starts previously (has failed to make it into the fourth inning over three straight starts.) Wheeler is just 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA on the road. Adam Wainwright (9-5, 5.48) gave up six runs off eight hits and a walk while stirking out eight over five innings in a victory over Miami on Monday. Wainwright is clearly not the same pitcher as he was three years ago, but he’s been at his best at home this season by going 6-1 with a 3.42 ERA. I like Wainwright to continue his strong play in St. Louis and for Wheeler’s inconsistencies to carry over here. Cardinals roll.

10* AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Phillies. San Diego turns to Jhoulys Chacin (7-7, 4.52 ERA) who went five scoreless agaisnt the Dodgers on Sunday. Chacin has been great at home this season (5-2, 1.68) and terrible on the road (2-5, 9.08.) Aaron Nola (6-5, 3.73) went seven scoreless against Pittsburgh on Monday, going on to strike out eight. Don’t look now, but Nola is quietly dominating, as he’d allowed just three runs to go along with 17 K’s over 14.1 innings prior to this latest gem (is 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA at home thus far.) Chacin’s road struggles continue here and Nola’s overall progression does as well. Phillies roll.

10* BREAKFAST BEST BEST on Toronto Blue Jays. I like Toronto to bounce back after yesterday’s humbling 12-2 defeat. The visitors turn to Mike Fiers (5-3, 3.80 ERA) who went four scoreless innings against the Yankees on Sunday. It wasn’t a perfect performance though as a high pitch count forced him out early (the four walks given up matched a season high as well.) While Fiers road record is a perfect 4-0, his ERA away from friendly confines sits at a pedestrian 4.83. The Jays’ counter with ace Marcus Stroman (8-5, 3.42) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to these very Yankees on Monday. Stroman had to leave that start early because of a blister issue but he’s been cleared to go this afternoon and despite being just a 2-2 in Toronto, he does own a very respectable 2.87 ERA North of the border. I think Fiers’ inconsistencies on the road catch up to him and I expect Stroman and the hungry home side to take advantage. Jays roll.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado Rockies. Derek Holland (5-8, 4.52 ERA) gave up five runs off five hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Holland has now been rocked for at least five runs in four of his last six starts (is just 3-4 with a 5.70 ERA on the road as well.) German Marquez (5-4, 4.41) gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Marquez owns a 2-2, 4.85 ERA at home, which is actually really good considering it’s at hitter friendly Coors Field. Chicago is just 24-37 (-3.5 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Colorado is 15-11 (+7.7 units) against southpaws. Rockies roll.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL under Mets/Cards. Jacob DeGrom (8-3, 3.55 ERA) gets the call for the Mets and he’s been on quite the roll lately, winning four straight starts while posting a tiny 0.84 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 31:8 K:BB over 32 innings of work (he’s 6-2 with a 3.89 ERA in all “night” games as well.) Carlos Matinez (6-7, 3.15) will look to rebound off his worst start of the year, allowing seven runs off seven hits over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Martinez though has still garnered 11 quality starts out of his last 13 trips to the hill and has to be feeling confident he can bounce back as he’s 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. Both teams have played to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but everything points to these starters battling into the latter frames and for this one to fall under once it’s all said and done.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Phillies. Clayton Richard (5-8, 4.85 ERA) gave up seven runs off nine hits and four walks in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday, also striking out three. Richard has now posted back-to-back duds, giving up 12 runs over his last 9.2 innings of work for the Padres. To go along with his poor 4.85 ERA, Richard also owns a lacklustre 1.51 WHIP and 73:31 K:BB through 104 innings of work (is just 4-5 with a 4.95 ERA in all “night” games.) Nick Pivetta (2-4, 4.85) gave up one run off one hit and four walks while stirking out four over seven innings to pick up a victory against the Mets on Sunday (owns a 3.50 ERA at home thus far.) Recent performance displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Richard has another long night in storm for him. Great value, Phillies roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE LA Dodgers. LA has managed a victory over the first two games of this series, including a 1-0 win last night. I think the home side will find a way to complete the sweep this evening. The visitors turn to Robbie Ray (8-4, 3.06 ERA), who gave up four runs off five hits and five walks over six innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday. Ray has now allowed at least four walks seven times this year. Rich Hill (5-4, 4.00) comes in off a commanding performance against the Padres on Saturday, going seven scoreless and allowing just four hits while striking out 11. Over his last three starts, Hill has posted a 1.89 ERA and 26:6 K:BB. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Ray is going to be in for another long night at Chavez Ravine. Dodgers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Seattle Mariners. Paul Blackburn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) gets another crack at the A’s starting rotation on the road tonight, he most recently allowed one unearned run over six innings. Clearly the book is still out on Blackburn, as the sample size is just too small to give an accurate overall assessment on the rookie. The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (3-3, 3.48) who comes in off a tough loss against the Angels on Saturday, allowing three earned runs off five hits over 6.1 innings (note that he owns a very respectable 2.00 ERA at home this year.) Oakland is just 5-8 (-1.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Seattle is 12-6 (+3.6 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. M’s roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Seattle Mariners. I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 7-3 defeat as I look for Ariel Miranda to continue his hot surge at home and get the better of the Royals’ Jason Vargas this evening. Vargas (12-3, 2.22 ERA) will make his final start before the All-Star game after giving up one run on two hits and four walks over seven innings in an 8-1 win over Minnesota on Friday. Vargas has been razor-sharp this year, but I think this is a very tough spot for the veteran. Miranda (7-4, 3.82) gave up no runs off two hits while striking out four over seven innings in an eventual 10-0 win over the Angels on Friday. The southpaw has now gone into the seventh inning in three straight starts and note that he’s been particularly effective at home this year by going 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA. KC has looked a lot beter of late, but it’s still only 9-13 (-4.3 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Seattle is 25-18 (+2.5 units) at home this year. Mariners roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Colorado Rockies. I like Colorado to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Scott Feldman (7-5, 3.78 ERA) who gave up no runs off two hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Friday. It was Feldman’s best start of the season and while he’s looked better of late, I’ll caution in putting too much stock into his performance quite yet as he’s still only 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA on the road this season and owns an equally as lacklustre 2-4 with a 4.61 ERA in all “night” games. Jon Gray (1-0, 3.93) returned to action for Colorado against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Friday and looked good in giving up just two runs off seven hits a walk while striking out ten over six innings (Gray was able to induce 17 swinging strikes out of 102 pitches thrown.) Cincinnati is just 14-20 (-2.7 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Colorado is 23-17 (+4.4 units) against clubs with losing records. Rockies roll.

10* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL over Jays/Yanks. Toronto pulled off a minor upset in yesterday’s 4-1 pitchers duel between JA Happ and CC Sabathia. WIth a couple of inconsistent starters going head-to-head in the finale of this series, I’m expecting a little more offense this afternoon though. Marco Estrada (4-6, 4.86 ERA) was an absolute disaster for the Jays in June, going 0-4 with a 9.11 ERA and .353 BAA in 27.2 innings (posted a poor 27:18 K:BB as well.) Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 4.83 ERA on the road this year. Michael Pineda (8-4, 4.05) comes in off a win over Houston on Friday, allowing three runs off seven hits over six frames in the eventual 13-4 victory. Pineda has been swapping good starts with bad of late and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.10 ERA in all “night” contests this year. Toronto has seen the total go over the number in six of eight as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while New York has seen the total soar above the number in 12 of 20 as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the over.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Colorado Rockies. I think the hard-hitting home side will punish Reds’ struggling starter Homer Bailey this evening. Bailey (0-2, 27.00 ERA) most recently was rocked for six runs off six hits (including three home runs) and two walks in a loss to Milwaukee on Thursday. Bailey has now given up 14 runs over 4.2 innings of work this year. Suffice it to say, it can’t get any better tonight at hitter friendly Coors Field. Kyle Freeland (8-6, 3.84) will be eager to take advantage and get back on track after allowing four runs over six innings in a loss to San Francisco on Wednesday. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Freeland fan I don’t think though, as he’s pitched into the sixth inning over his last 12 starts (he is also a highly respectable 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA at home this year as well.) Recent form exhibited by these starting pitchers suggests an absolute destruction being laid down by Colorado. Lay the price.

10* MAIN EVENT on Texas Rangers. David Price continues to improve after coming back from surgery, but I don’t think Rangers’ ace Yu Darvish is getting nearly enough respect in this matchup. Price (3-2, 4.61 ERA) is slowly starting to resemble his former self after returning to the rotation from injury, most recently giving up three runs off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Twins on Thursday. Price has now given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Texas counters with Darvish (6-6, 3.11) who comes in off a loss despite allowing just three runs (only two earned) off seven hits and one walk over six innings in an eventual 5-3 setback to Cleveland on Wednesday, also finishing with six K’s. Regardless, it was his 12th quality start in 17 trips to the hill this season. If Price has had one clear weakness though, it’s been his play on the road with a poor 5.32 ERA (compared to Darvish’s 3.81 ERA at home). I like Darvish to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart, play on the Rangers.

10* Afternoon Annihilator on Milwaukee Brewers. I think Jimmy Nelson will easily take care of business at home in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez (3-3, 6.48 ERA) who comes in off perhaps the best outing of his career, going eight scoreless with eight K’s in a victory over the Jays on Thursday. I’m not reading too much into that start though, as previous to that Jimenez had been rocked for nine runs over 2.1 innings in a setback to the Rays (has been particularly feeble on the road as well, just 2-3 with a 6.02 ERA.) Nelson (6-4, 3.43) comes in off a gem against Cincinnati on Thursday, allowing two runs off three hits and one walk to go along with 11 K’s over seven innings in the eventual 11-3 victory. Nelson has posted double-digit strikeouts in four of his last seven trips to the hill (owns a tiny 2.64 ERA at home as well.) Recent form suggests a lop-sided blowout, Brewers roll.

10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Chicago Cubs. I think Jon Lester takes advantage of familiar surroundings and finds a way to get the job done on Tuesday. Chris Archer (6-5, 3.92 ERA) gave up three runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the Pirates on Thursday. Archer came into that one having gone a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.76 ERA over his previous eight outings. Archer has regressed as the season has progressed and has now allowed four runs or more in five of his past nine starts (is just 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA on the road.) Lester (5-4, 3.69) has gotten stronger as the season has worn on, most recently giving up one run over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Washignton on Thursday, allowing just three hits and striking out seven. The veteran finished June with 37 K’s over 37 innings (note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA at home as well.) Tough spot for the Rays this holiday, Cubs roll.

10* PESONAL FAVORITE Seattle Mariners. Ian Kennedy (2-6, 4.72 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” this year for the Royals, but he does come in off a decent outing against Detroit on Wednesday, allowing two runs off five hits over seven innings. Both runs he gave up were solo shots, so Kennedy may have gotten a little lucky in that one. Kennedy has been plagued by the long-ball this year, having served up at least one dinger in 11 straight outings (owns a pedestrian 4.74 ERA on the road thus far.) Andrew Moore (1-0, 3.86) will be a relative unknown for the Royals, as he’s been called up to join the rotation a day early to give Felix Hernandez some extra rest. In his first start on June 22nd against the Tigers the rookie looked great, holding Detroit to three runs off six hits with no walks and four K’s over seven innings. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Moore is the correct call. Mariners roll.

10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL under Reds/Rockies. I think this number is just a little high. Luis Castillo (0-0, 3.38 ERA) was in line for a win for the Reds in his last start. The hard-throwing right-hander gave up two runs off five hits while striking out nine over six innings against the hard-hitting Brewers on Wednesday in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision after his bullpen blew the effort. Regardless, he looked great and I expect the rookie to carry that momentum over here. Jeff Hoffman (4-1, 4.04) gave up two runs off six hits while also striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Tuesday. Like his counterpart, Hoffman exited the game in-line for a victory only to then immediatley be letdown by his bullpen. Hoffman has admittedly struggled at home this season, but note that Colorado has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this year as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a pitchers duel on our hands in this one. Play the under.