I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers got on track in a big way yesterday. Having previously dropped five of six, they responded with a 10-2 victory. I expect them to build some positive momentum from that "blowout" and look for them to carry it into this afternoon's contest.

Gallardo isn't having his best year. However, he's off four straight quality starts. For the season, he's still 3-2 with a respectable 3.83 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in eight home starts. He's averaging better than six innings per start here and has an impressive 51 K's (vs only 17 walks) in 49 1/3 innings pitched here. Opposing batters are hitting .239 against him here.

For his career, Gallardo is 33-17 at home with a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He should be happy to see the Diamondbacks.

Gallardo has an exceptional 1.21 ERA while winning all six of his regular-season starts against Arizona. He also started Games 1 and 5 of last season's NL division series against the Dbax and he was 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in those games, helping lead Milwaukee to the NLCS. Add it up and he's 7-0 (Brewers are 8-0!) in his eight starts vs. Arizona, compiling an extremely stingy 1.23 ERA and 0.955 WHIP.

Like Gallardo, Collmenter has enjoyed success against today's opponent. In fact, he's 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA in two starts vs. Milwaukee. However, both those victories came at Arizona and neither came vs. Gallardo. Collmenter did pitch well in his lone start at Miller Park. He was matched up against Gallardo though and the Brewers won 3-1.

This season, Collmenter's been working primarily out of the bullpen. He made a spot start on 6/22. Although he allowed just one run, he also went only went four innings. Prior to that, he'd recorded a terrible 9.82 ERA in four early spring starts, which had caused him to be moved to the bullpen. He has yet to deliver a quality start this season.

Note that Collmenter's daytime ERA (5.40) is worse than his ERA under the lights. On the other hand, Gallardo's daytime ERA (3.32) is significantly better than his ERA under the lights. I expect Gallardo to outlast and outpitch Collmenter here, en route to another win for the home team. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against these same Dodgers just yesterday. They lost 3-0, getting swept by the Giants. Not only were the Dodgers swept, they didn't score a single run during the series. This is an entirely new matchup and venue though, one which I feel will prove far more favorable.

Yesterday, the Dodgers sent Billingsley to the mound to take on Lincecum. I gave a number of reasons why I felt that matchup favored the Giants, mentioning why I felt Lincecum was going to outpitch Billingsley.

Today, however, the Dodgers aren't facing a former Cy Young Award winner. They're also back home, where they're 24-12 (+9.3) including a highly profitable 12-2 (+9.3) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. While they're still without Kemp and it now looks like without Ethier, I expect the Dodgers bats to finally wake up today.

The Mets destroyed the Cubs (17-1!) in yesterday's finale at Wrigley. They'd been struggling though, going 0-4 their previous four games and scoring just four runs in the first two games of the Cubs' series. Yesterday's breakout game came against a right-handed starter. Now, however, the Mets are back against a southpaw - and that hasn't been favorable for them.

The Mets are only 10-17 (-5.8) in games against left-handed starters, most recently a 6-1 loss on Monday. They'll be taking on a red-hot southpaw here.

Capuano checks in at a very impressive 9-2 with a stellar 2.60 ERA and 1.125 WHIP. His home numbers are even better. In fact, he's a perfect 5-0 in seven starts here (Dodgers are 6-1) with a superb 1.57 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. He's averaging 6 2/3 innings per start here, striking out 46 in 46 innings, walking only 13.

Over his last two starts, Capuano has allowed only two combined runs in 15 innings, striking out 16 and walking one!

A.J. Ellis said this of Capuano: "Cappy's been amazing, the way he's been throwing the ball - and it started in spring training. He has a lot more velocity on his fastball. And when he has that, it makes all his off-speed stuff better."

Young has been relatively solid but far less spectacular. He's made four starts since returning from injury and has a respectable 3.42 ERA. He's averaged less than six innings per start though and the Mets are just 1-3 (-1.4) when he takes the mound. Additionally, a closer look reveals a fairly high 1.521 WHIP, including an ugly 1.687 mark on the road. So, he's giving up a lot more baserunners than Capuano. Note that Young gave up four home runs in five innings here, the last time (June, 2009) he faced the Dodgers.

Young is supported by a Mets' bullpen which has been atrocious on the road. New York relievers have an ERA above six away from home. On the other hand, Capuano is backed by an LA bullpen which has an outstanding 2.19 ERA here at home.

Capuano has allowed two runs or less in every home start. I expect him to continue his success here, getting the better of Young en route to a LA victory. *10

I'm playing on MIAMI. I last backed the Marlins on Sunday. At the time, they were mired in a 6-game losing streak. Looking to avoid being swept in front of the home fans, the Marlins responded in a big way, rewarding me with a 9-0 victory. I feel that this will prove to be a good spot to back them again.

It appeared that Miami might build some momentum from Sunday's big win, as they led most of the way in Monday's opener vs. St. Louis, taking a big lead into the 9th inning. They let that game slip away in heart-breaking fashion though. Off that deflating loss, they gave up five runs in the first inning of yesterday's game, losing from wire-to-wire.

The Marlins did finally get it together yesterday though - allowing no runs after the first inning - and they've had some more time to recover from Monday's debacle. Once again looking to avoid being swept in front of the home fans, I expect them to again respond with a significantly better effort today.

Admittedly, Sanchez wasn't at his best last time out - he got rocked by the Jays. He's a lot better than he showed in that outing though and was off a quality start before that. For the season, despite having struggled the past few weeks and a sub-500 record, he's still got a respectable 3.94 ERA and a very solid 1.214 WHIP. With 83 K's to just 28 walks, he can clearly still get big league hitters out. In eight home starts, a span of 48 1/3 innings, Sanchez has 48 K's vs. just 19 walks, allowing only four home runs.

While he hasn't received much in terms of run support, Sanchez has pitched very well vs. St. Louis. He's allowed three earned runs or less in all four of his career starts vs. the Cardinals, going at least seven innings in three of those four games. In 25 2/3 innings vs. the Cards, he's got 25 K's.

Sanchez, who once threw a no-hitter, has pitched a total of 371.1 home innings. He's got more K's (351) than hits allowed (336) in those games, while recording a 3.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Kelly, who actually had the game-winning hit on Monday, has quite a solid (3.52) ERA. However, he's still only made a few starts, only of them coming on the road. (His road ERA is 4.50.) A closer look shows that he's only averaging 5 1/3 innings per start and that he's got a high 1.634 WHIP. Last time out, he gave up nine hits while striking out only one. In 15 1/3 innings, he's given up 23 combined hits. Clearly, big league hitters aren't being blown away by him. In fact, opposing hitters are batting .343 against him so far, .346 on the road.

I expect the far more experienced Sanchez to get the better of the rookie here, as the Cards' winning streak comes to an end and the Marlins stop the bleeding with a desperately-needed victory. *9

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Padres took yesterday's opener, their second straight win. Three game winning streaks are few and far between for this San Diego team though. I expect their current run to come to and end tonight.

While the Astros are 21-18 at home, the Padres are a money-burning 11-23 (-8.2) on the road.

Starting for San Diego, Wells returns to the big leagues for the first time in years - Kip, not David. He hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2009, coming out of retirement this past spring. He's been trying to work his way up to the bigs down at Triple-A. A career loser, over the years, Wells is an ugly 67-99 with a very poor 4.71 ERA

With those kind of career numbers, one would assume that the aging Wells must have been pitching pretty well in the minors, in order to get a shot here. However, keep in mind that this is the Padres we're talking about. They don't necessarily care about numbers - Wells had an atrocious 8.22 ERA his last three starts at Triple-A Tuscon. Although the players are different - note that Wells also had a terrible 8.59 ERA his last four starts vs. Houston.

Admittedly, Lyles doesn't have very good numbers either. However, he has shown some positive signs of late, pitching very well his last two home starts. He took the loss last time out. However, he only allowed three hits and two runs through seven complete innings. He had four K's and didn't walk a batter. That type of effort is typically going to win a lot of games.

Lyles has allowed four earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, including three straight. He's allowed two earned runs in each of his last two home starts, going seven complete innings in each of those games. He's allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five here.

The Astros have now scored seven or more runs in three straight. I expect them to give Wells a rude welcoming, providing Lyles with some better run support and evening up the series. *10

I'm playing on Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game finished above the total, an 8-3 victory for the Phillies. I expect a much lower-scoring affair here though. Note that the Pirates have still seen three of their last four fall below the total. Worley quietly has put up excellent numbers. Through 11 starts, he's got a 2.78 ERA, averaging better than six innings per start. While he doesn't have the "W's" to show for it, he's been particularly sharp recently. Despite going 0-2, he's got a superb 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP his last three starts, most recently losing 4-1 and 3-0. Worley has made one start against the Pirates this season. He allowed one run through six complete innings. Bedard has also had excellent success against today's opponent. In fact, he's got a superb 1.61 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in four starts vs. Philadelphia. His lone 2012 start against the Phils finished with a score of 1-0. Bedard's overall stats aren't great. He was very good last time out though, allowing one run in six innings, a game that finished with a score of 2-1. While the Pirates are averaging 3.4 runs (.230 avg) in games vs. right-handed starters, the Phils are averaging 3.4 runs (.243 avg) in games vs. southpaw starters. Expect a well-pitched affair. *10

I'm playing on SF and LA to finish UNDER the total. At some ballparks, a total of 7.5 might seem fairly low. However, its typically plenty high enough to cash an 'under' ticket for games at San Francisco and I expect that to be the case again tonight.

The Giants hit only .255 at home and they score just 3.3 runs per game here. Yet, they still have a winning home record. That's because opposing teams are managing a mere 2.9 runs per game here, hitting for a paltry .215 average. That's an average of just 6.2 combined runs per game here. No wonder the UNDER is a lucrative 22-11-2 here. With Buster Posey and his 11-game hit streak expected to be out of the lineup, the Giants offense takes a big hit.

The Dodgers aren't exactly offensive road warriors, either. They're batting only .235 outside of LA, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Still playing without Kemp, the UNDER is 5-1-1 in LA's last seven games. Those games have averaged just 5.7 runs. LA scored only 2.1 runs per game during that 7-game stretch, hitting an awful .194 as a team.

Eovaldi has been tough for the Dodgers. He's got a 2.35 ERA in five starts and ALL five have finished below the total. Unfortunately, for him, the Dodgers have managed only two combined run in his last three starts, losing 4-1, 2-1 and 1-0.

Zito has admittedly had some trouble the last couple of starts. However, he still has a somewhat respectable 3.83 ERA in seven home starts, five of which have fallen below the total. Facing this struggling LA lineup may be just what the doctor ordered for Zito. He's allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 against the Dodgers, allowing four or less in ALL 10 of those. The UNDER is 7-2 his last nine starts in the series and 13-5-3 for Zito's career against the Dodgers.

Zito is supported by a SF bullpen which has an excellent 2.46 ERA and 1.095 WHIP at home.

The UNDER is 33-15-2 the last 50 times that the Giants played a home game with a line ranging from +100 to -125. I expect those stats to improve, as this evening's game again proves lower-scoring than expected *10

I'm playing on BOSTON. As a boy, even before they were any good, I loved the Jays. Watching them grow into a contender and eventually become (2-time) World Champions was really exciting for me. The days of the Jays being World Champions seem about as distant as the days of me being a "fan," the latter perhaps even more so. Naturally, I shed allegiances to any teams long ago. Roughly two decades now. Therefore, after successfully playing against them yesterday, I don't mind going right back against the Jays again today.

The Sox are playing very well. They're off a big win and have won seven of eight. This is the beginning of the "post Youkilis era" and they'll be motivated to keep on rolling. Youkilis had some big moments in Boston. However, with Middlebrooks playing great, Youkilis' days were numbered and he was expendable. all AL rookies with nine HRs and 34 RBIs this season. (He's currently 10 for 16 with three HRs and 10 RBIs in the first six games of this homestand!)

The Jays had also been going well. However, yesterday's 9-0 loss put a quick halt to that. This is a team which is dealing with numerous starting pitching injuries, which has put a large amount of work on the shoulders of the bullpen. With Alvarez having gone just four innings in his last start, we may see the Toronto bullpen again get involved early here.

In terms of ERA and WHIP, Alvarez's overall numbers are quite similar to Doubront's numbers. However, the Red Sox are a profitable 10-4 (+5.4) when Doubront has taken the mound while the Jays are a money-burning 3-11 (-10.4) when Alvarez has done so. Big difference. While the Jays have some big home run bats in lineup, the Red Sox still hit better overall and score more runs. So, Doubront typically gets more support than Alvarez.

Doubront has also been better his last couple of starts. He's allowed six runs in 13 innings, his last two starts. While that's only a 4.15 ERA, note that he had an impressive 13 K's with one walk in those games.

Meanwhile, Alvarez has given up 10 runs in 11 innings (8.18 ERA!) his last two starts, striking out only three. Going back further finds him at 0-4 with an ugly 6.26 ERA in his last seven start, with the Blue Jays losing each. During that 41 2/3 inning stretch, Alvarez allowed a whopping 63 hits while striking out just 13 - as many as Doubront had the past two games.

The Jays are 3-6 as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. Despite their poor overall record here, the Red Sox are an excellent 11-3 (+6.8) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

These pitchers faced each other back in the spring. Both were solid but the Red Sox won 4-2. With Doubront now in better form than Alvarez and with the Sox now playing as well as they have all season, I expect Boston to again come out on top. *9

I'm playing on MIAMI. While the Marlins had the best May in franchise history, June has definitely been a struggle. Getting blown out in the first two games of this series certainly hasn't helped their bottom line. While they've now lost six straight, I like this matchup and believe the Fish will bounce back with a much needed victory.

After yesterday's loss, Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said the following: "Right now we should be embarrassed. We played tight. I think we are waiting for something bad to happen. This game is about making things happen, not to make the bad thing happen. The only way you survive out of this is get your head out of your butt and start playing." I expect the Marlins to respond to their manager's comments with their best effort.

Buehrle is among the Marlins who have had a tough month as he's off four straight losses. Every time people start to write this guy off, he always seems to come back again though. He's still got a respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the season. At home, those numbers dip to 3.21 and 1.05. He's allowed two runs or less in five of seven starts here. He also hasn't lost five consecutive outings for more than five years.

Additionally, note that Buehrle has an excellent 2.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for his career vs. Toronto. That's his best career ERA vs. any A.L. team.

Buehrle figures to get some run support. With Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison alll injured, Toronto is forced to turn to Jesse Chavez. At 28, Chavez has only made one big league start. It didn't go well. He lasted only 2 2/3 innings and gave up four runs, while walking four.

The Jays have never swept the Marlins. With the veteran Buehrle getting better of the inexperienced Chavez, the Marlins bounce back in convincing fashion. *9

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants entered yesterday's game having lost two straight and four of five. The A's entered yesterday's opener having won three straight and eight of nine. It appeared those streaks would remain in tact, as Oakland jumped all over "former" SF ace Tim Lincecum. It was 3-0 A's right out of the gate and they led 3-1 right up until the 9th inning. However, the Giants would rally for four 9th runs, en route to a 5-4 victory. That snapped their 6-game skid here at Oakland and gives them plenty of positive momentum to take into today's game. On the other hand, yesterday's loss was the type of defeat that could prove deflating to the A's.

Earl Weaver once said something along the lines of: "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher ... " In this case, the Giants have both momentum AND the starting pitching advantage in their corner.

I actually successfully played against the Giants the last time that Bumgarner took the mound. However, in that game he was at "King Felix's house," matched up against Felix Hernandez at Safeco Field in Seattle. Bumgarner pitched a gem but with Hernandez doing the same, it wasn't enough for the "W." Seattle won by a score of 2-1.

This time, however, Bumgarner figures to get more run support. That's because Tyson Ross is 2-6 with a terrible 6.11 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in his 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.826 WHIP his last three starts.

Those numbers don't even come close to comparing to Bumgarner's excellent stats. With the no-decision at Safeco, Bumgarner is 8-4 with a stellar 2.92 ERA and 1.066 WHIP on the season. That includes a 2-0 mark with a 2.49 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in his last three starts. He's got 20 K's with just five walks in those games.

The A's are batting only .216 vs. southpaw starters and also only .216 at home, averaging just 3.7 runs per game here. The Giants are averaging 4.6 per game on the road, hitting .269.

While I don't play all that many road favorites, this has been a good role for the Giants. They're 20-12 (+3.7) the past couple of seasons, when listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With the edge in momentum and also on the mound, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Mariners snapped their losing streak yesterday, earning a 7-4 victory. With their ace on their mound, I expect them to follow it up with another victory this afternoon. Felix Hernandez, winner of the 2010 AL Cy Young Award, has admittedly struggled recently. It would be a big mistake to underestimate him though. After a sub-par outing last time out, Hernandez commented: "I'm tired of pitching like that. I've got to do something about this.'' That's easier said than done for most guys. However, Hernandez is on a different level from most and he's famous for his strong second halves. Even in his Cy Young season, he had a mediocre 3.77 ERA partway into June and then proceeded to post a 1.48 ERA the rest of the way. (He's currently got a 3.70 ERA.) Before writing off Hernandez, lets also keep in mind that he's still got a stellar 2.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in six starts here at Safeco, numbers most starters would love. He's averaging better than seven innings (7.2) per start here and has more K's (44) than innings pitched (43.) For his career, King Felix is 46-32 here with a 3.20 ERA. Bumgarner is also certainly capable. However, his 3.89 road ERA is more than a run higher than Felix's ERA here at home. He's pitched almost exactly as many road innings as Hernnandez has at home - and has allowed twice as many home runs, issued more walks and struck out less. The Seattle bullpen has a 2.46 ERA and 1.024 WIP at home. The San Fran. bullpen has a 3.72 ERA and ugly 1.618 WHIP on the road. While the M's are not a good hitting team, they're 4.1 runs per game average is slightly better than SF's four per game. Also, note that the M's have been much better against southpaw starters, averaging 4.8 runs in games against left-handers. The M's are 2-0 in Hernandez's two career starts vs. the Giants. Last time he faced them, he gave up one earned run in eight innings, striking out 10, while walking just one. I expect to see the "old Felix" here and for the M's to grab themselves a series victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians didn't fare too well at Cincinnati, getting swept by their instate rivals. That was fine by me, as I played against the Indians in two of those three losses. They're back home now though and facing a Pirates team which is suddenly also struggling and which rarely plays very well away from Pittsburgh. While the Pirates are 19-11 at home, with yesterday's loss, they're now only 13-19 on the road. McDonald does have the better record and overall numbers than Masterson. No question about it. However, McDonald hasn't been nearly as good on the road (3.41 ERA compared to 1.75 ERA) as he has at home. He's also coming off arguably his worst start of the season. McDonald lasted only four innings and gave up three runs and five hits. Masterson was better than McDonald last time out. He allowed just a single run through seven complete innings. He had six K's without walking a batter. It was his second straight quality start. A closer look reveals that Masterson has a terrible road ERA but that his home ERA of 3.54 is actually nearly identical to McDonald's mark on the road. Also, Masterson is averaging 6.7 innings per home start. McDonald is averaging only 5.8 on the road. For his career, Masterson has a 3.30 ERA at home. McDonald's career ERA on the road is 4.69. The Pirates are now 21-23 vs. right-handed starters. The Indians, on the other hand, are 27-17 against right-handers. Masterson has allowed two runs or less in both career starts vs. Pirates, most recently leading the Indians to a 5-2 win last June. He's recorded 12 K's while only walking two batters in those two games. Including the 5-2 victory in Masterson's last start in the series, the Indians are 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Pirates, going 8-1 this millennium. I expect them to continue that dominance for at least another night. *10

Reason: I'm playing on St. Louis and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. The White Sox have had a lot of success away from Chicago this season. That hasn't been due to big offensive numbers on the road, as they're averaging only 4.3 runs while hitting just 2.54 on the road. Rather, its been due to excellent road pitching. For the season, the Sox are allowing only 3.0 runs per game on the road, while holding opposing teams to a mere .218 batting average in their own home parks. Quintana goes for the Sox. He's been filling in for Danks and has been quite solid. In three starts, he's got a 2.97 ERA and 1.149 WHIP. Two of those finished below the total. Overall, including some work out of the bullpen, he's got an excellent 2.05 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. Quintana is supported by a Chicago bullpen which has a superb 2.31 ERA (1.115 WHIP) on the road. Admittedly Wainwright's numbers aren't very good, as he had some tough outings earlier in the season. However, he's shown real signs of coming around recently. Last time out. through 5 2/3 innings, he had eight K's, en route to a 4-3 victory over the Astros. He took a no-hitter into the fifth inning of that game. In his last two home starts, he's gone 2-0 allowing only one run in 15 combined innings. The Cards won those games by a combined score of 12-3. Each of his last two starts have produced eight or fewer combined runs. Wainwright, who will have the advantage of starting against the Sox for the first time, has now allowed one earned run or less in nine of his last 16 home starts. The Cards are 13-7 his last 20 here and 4-0 his four June home starts, since 2010. In those four June home starts, Wainwright allowed a mere three total earned runs through 29 1/3 innings, allowing 0 runs in three games. The Cards are averaging less than 1.7 runs per game in Inter League action so far, managing just five in total in the recent 3-game set vs. Cleveland. With Wainwright continuing his improved pitching, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Atlanta and New York to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's Yankees game managed to stay below the total. The UNDER is now 6-2 their last eight games. The Braves were involved in a higher-scoring contest, getting blown out (12-4) by the Jays. However, five of their last eight have still fallen below the total. Given the way each starter has looked so far in June, I feel that this evening's number is generously high. Delgado was excellent at Miami in his last start. He allowed a mere two hits and a single run, lasting 6 1/3 innings. He had seven K's with only one walk, earning a 2-1 victory. That type of performance can do a lot for a pitcher's confidence. For the season, Delgado has a respectable 3.64 ERA in five home starts, three of which have fallen below the total. Nova is also coming off an outstanding start. In eight innings, he limited the Rays to only four hits and one run. He had five K's, walked only a single batter and won by a score of 4-1. Both starters will have the advantage of starting against tonight's opponent for the first time. The Braves bullpen has respectable 3.76 ERA on the season. The Yankees' bullpen has an excellent 2.82 ERA on the season. While the Yankees have seen the UNDER go 19-10 (8-3 on the road) when the O/U line is either nine or 9.5, the Braves have seen the UNDER go 2-1 when they've seen an O/U line of nine or 9.5. The UNDER is also 10-5-2 the last 17 times that the Braves allowed double-digits in runs in their previous game. The only previous time it happened this season was on on 5/2 when they surrendered 13 runs to the Phillies - they followed it up with a 4-0 game the next day. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. These teams have split the first two games of this 3-game set. I expect the Reds to have the advantage in this evening's rubber match. Admittedly, Bailey wasn't very good his last start. He was facing the same team for the second straight start though, which can be tough sometimes. In his previous start, he'd tossed a complete game 4-hitter and before that he's allowed just four hits (and two runs) in six innings. In fact, prior to Tuesday's poor outing, he'd delivered four straight quality starts, giving up a combined seven earned runs in 28 innings. That translates to a 2.25 ERA. Bailey is backed by a stingy Reds' bullpen which enters Sunday with a 2.38 ERA and 0.972 WHIP at home. Smyly hasn't been very good of late. He's allowed four earned runs in back to back starts, both of them Detroit losses. He now has a 5.82 ERA his last three starts. Smyly has the support of a Detroit bullpen which has a 4.89 ERA and 1.435 WHIP on the road. While the Tigers average 4.2 runs per game on the road, the Reds average 4.4 here at home. The Reds, 8-1 on Sunday games this season, have been excellent as small home favorites in recent seasons. I expect them to step up and close out the series with a win. *10 (Main Event)

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Rays have taken the first two games of this "battle of Florida" but I look for the Marlins to step up and avoid the sweep this afternoon. Admittedly, Shields has been very good his last couple of starts vs. the Marlins. However, he's not in very good current form. Shields, who has a career ERA of 4.62 in the month of June, is off back to back losses, giving up 12 (five and seven) earned runs in only 11 innings. Sanchez also struggled last time out. However, he was dominant in his previous start, allowing just a single unearned run on three hits, through seven innings. Last start was just the second time all season that Sanchez allowed more than three earned runs. He's allowed two or less in eight of 11 starts. The fact the he averages nearly seven innings (6.7) per start is also a good thing, as yesterday's early exit by Zambrano created some extra work for the Miami bullpen. In five daytime starts, Sanchez is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA. That;s much better than his 1-3 record and 3.83 ERA in six evening starts. While the Marlins haven't had much recent success in the series, they are 2-0 wen Sanchez has started against the Rays, one of those victories coming when he was matched up against Shields. Hungry to finally beat their instate rivals, I expect them to step up and get it done here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Rays won yesterday's series opener. I expect the Marlins to return the favor today though. Zambrano is off an excellent outing. Pitching at Philadelphia, he limited the Phillies to four hits and one run through 7 2/3 innings. He had seven K's while walking only two. Miami won 5-1. For the season, he's got an excellent 2.81 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. He's made 11 starts and is averaging nearly seven innings each time he takes the mound. I won with the Rays the last time that Moore was on the mound. However, that was at home and he was up against Arrieta and the Orioles. I expected Moore to get some run support and he did. Tampa won 8-4. However, Moore wasn't exactly dominant. He did limit the Orioles to just two runs, one earned, through six complete innings. That's obviously very good. However, a closer look shows that he allowed seven hits and walked three batters. That translates to a 1.667 WHIP, which means things easily could have been worse. Matched up against Zambrano, I don't expect Moore to be so fortunate in the run support department this time. While his last few starts have come at home, for the season, Moore is 0-2 (TB is 0-3) with a poor 4.67 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in three road starts. The Marlins were beaten by a right-hander yesterday and they did lose vs. a left-hander in the Atlanta series. However, they're still an outstanding 68-43 (+23.5) against southpaw starters the past few seasons. They badly need a victory and I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Chicago and Houston to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener produced 11 runs, an 8-3 victory for the visitors. With both starters off a very strong outing, which wasn't the case yesterday, I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair. Yesterday, the Sox sent Gavin Floyd to the mound. He had a 5.62 ERA in seven home starts and a 12.51 ERA (and 2.195 WHIP!) his previous three starts. Meanwhile, Houston's Wandy Rodriguez had a 6.35 ERA and 1.706 WHIP his previous three starts, having been rocked in back to back outings. Today is an entirely different story. Sale is 7-2 with an extremely stingy 2.33 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in his 10 starts. Over his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA and 0.686 WHIP! Lyles doesn't have the same type of numbers that Sale does. However, he is coming off a very solid start. He held the Reds to five hits and two runs, going seven complete innings. Like Sale, Lyles will have the advantage of starting against today's opponent for the first time. Yet, despite today's starters being in much better current form than yesterday's starters, we're currently getting an identical O/U line to work with. I feel that's offering excellent line value. Not surprisingly, all three of Sale's last three starts finished below the total. They had scores of 4-2, 2-1 and 6-0. For the season, the UNDER is 7-3 when he's taken the mound, 4-1 here at Chicago. Lyles has seen two of his last three three finish below the number. Both starters are backed by respectable bullpens. Even with yesterday's result, the Sox have still seen the UNDER go 23-16-1 their last 40 games against the National League. The UNDER is also 14-9-1 when they've played during the day, numbers I expect to improve this afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Baltimore and Philadelphia to finish OVER the total. This O/U line initially came out at 9.5u, at some shops. However, its down to nine, which of course makes a significant difference. With both starters having really struggled of late, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I've successfully played against the Orioles each time that Arrieta has been on the mound. In those two games, Arrieta allowed 11 total runs (10 earned) in nine combined innings. The Orioles lost by scores of 8-4 and 8-6. Going back further finds that Arrieta has allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last six starts and seven of his last nine. Five of his last six starts have produced greater than 10 runs. In six home starts this season, Arrieta is 1-4 with an awful 6.43 ERA. Blanton has allowed a minimum of five earned runs in four straight starts. During that 4-game stretch, he's allowed 24 total earned runs over 19 2/3 innings, serving up a whopping 10 home runs. Blanton's ERA, which was below three before the four consecutive poor starts, has climbed all the way to 5.27. Blanton has had some success during the day. He's got a 6.08 ERA during the evening though, opposing batters hitting .315 against him in those games. For his career, Blanton has a 4.87 ERA on the road. He's also got an ugly 5.09 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in six starts vs. Baltimore, Oriole hitters batting .315 against him. With yesterday's 8-3 loss to the Dodgers, the Phillies have now seen the OVER go a lucrative 22-8 when facing a team with a winning record. Philadelphia relievers haven't been very good on the road (4.91 ERA) and the OVER is 19-9 in their road games overall. I expect to see double-digits here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies are suddenly struggling. Yesterday's 2-1 loss was their fourth straight. Given the Phillies skid, after seeing the Dodgers' far superior overall record and also seeing that Capuano has better overall stats than Kendrick, many bettors will likely want to back the visitors here. I feel that the Phillies will have an advantage though and that they're providing us with excellent value. True, Capuano does have very solid numbers thus far. However, keep in mind that this guy has has two Tommy John surgeries and that he was 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA last season. He's 64-66 with a 4.26 ERA for his career. Solid enough numbers but far from spectacular and nowhere close to what he's been doing this season. Note that he's never been as good on the road, which has been the case again so far this season. For his career, he's 30-39 on the road with a poor 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Capuano came back earth last time out as his ERA climbed from 2.14 to 2.50. In 5 1/3 innings, he allowed seven runs. Fortunately, for his ERA at least, only four of those were earned. Still, the seven hits and four walks weren't a good sign. Capuano, who is 5-0 at home but 2-2 on the road, was quoted as saying: "I wasn't real happy the way I handled it mentally out there. I was getting real frustrated with myself. My command was just off. That's frustrating to me, that I couldn't grind it out and get through that sixth inning and keep us in the game." Kendrick, on the other hand, has quietly been pitching very well of late. Since getting roughed up by the Mets on May 9th, he's seen his ERA drop in every start. He's allowed two earned runs or less in all four of those games, including a complete-game shutout of the Cardinals. He has an excellent 1.65 ERA during that 4-game stretch. Note that he won't have to deal with LA's Matt Kemp, who remains on the disabled list. While they lost against a tough southpaw in the opener, the Phillies are still 66-46 the last 2+ seasons against left-handed starters. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. The Twins grabbed yesterday's opener. I expect the Royals to bounce back and respond with a victory this evening. Chen only has a 2-3 record and a 4.28 ERA in five home starts. However, a closer look shows that he's got a solid 1.218 WHIP in those games and has an impressive 23/5 K/W ratio, averaging 6.7 innings per home start. He won his last home start by a score of 7-3, limiting Arizona to two runs through 6 1/3 innings. Chen was roughed up at Minnesota back on 4/29. However, he tossed eight shutout innings the last time that he faced the Twins at home, earning a 4-0 victory in that 9/13/2011 game. It appears he may not have to face Mauer, who missed yesterday's game with a sore thumb. Manager Ron Gardenhire said this of his star catcher: "I have no time frame. Day to day is what they told me, and that's where we'll be." Liriano was excellent vs. Oakland last time out, proving he can still get it done. That was at home though. He's still 1-5 with a 7.72 ERA and a terrible 1.868 WHIP in seven starts though. Also, in four road starts, he's 0-4 with a 10.26 ERA and 2.281 WHIP, averaging a mere 4.2 innings. Kansas starters have alternated scoreless starts with poor ones in the first four games of this six-game homestand. After a sub-par start yesterday, I won't count on Chen delivering a scoreless outing here. However, I do expect him to be solid enough to help lead the Royals to a series-tying victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Chicago and Milwaukee to finish OVER the total. Six of seven 2012 meetings between these teams have finished above the total. Those seven games averaged 9.86 runs. I expect another relatively high-scoring affair here and feel that the low number is providing very fair value. This season's only game that didn't finish above the total was one between these same two starters. However, neither starter was that sharp last time out and I expect a different type of game here. Facing light-hitting San Diego, Dempster gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. He gave up six hits, three of them home runs and walked four batters. Gallardo was quite a lot better, as he only gave up three runs in six innings, which is defined as a quality start. However, a closer look shows that he did give up eight hits and walk three batters. Eleven baserunners in six innings translates to a 1.833 WHIP. Gallardo has walked a minimum of three batters in four straight starts, walking a total of 15 during that stretch. He's seen the OVER go 3-1-1 at home and has a less than impressive 4.22 ERA and 1.453 WHIP overall. The Cubs relievers have a combined 4.56 ERA and 1.494 WHIP on the road. Meanwhile, Milwaukee relievers have a brutal 5.80 ERA and 1.68 WHIP at home. Including the games in this series, the OVER is 17-7 in Milwaukee's divisional games this season. Those games are averaging 9.7 runs per game. For the season, games here at Milwaukee are averaging 10.1 runs with the OVER going 17-9-1. I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener produced 10 runs, an 8-2 Pittsburgh victory. I'm expecting a much lower-scoring contest here. Even with yesterday's eight runs, the Pirates are still averaging a mere three runs per game on the season, hitting .221 as a team. Yesterday's game came vs. a southpaw (Wolf) but today, they'll be facing a tough right-hander. That's noteworthy as the Pirates are hitting a dismal .215 in games vs. right-handed starters, averaging a paltry 2.7 runs. Given those offensive numbers, its not surprising to learn that the Pirates have proven very profitable to "under" bettors. Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, the UNDER remains a lucrative 33-15-3 in their games. Bedard goes for the Pirates. He's got a very solid 3.12 ERA on the season and he's coming off a gem in his last outing. He tossed six shutout innings, allowing just two hits. Its possible that Bedard won't have to face Ryan Braun. The reigning NL MVP sat out Thursday's game and also left yesterday's game after the 7th inning. He was quoted as saying: "The danger in trying to play through an injury constantly, is it's easy to re-irritate it. Your body also compensates so it's easy to hurt something else. I don't think it's too bad, but it doesn't feel too good right now." Whether or not Braun plays, Bedard will have the advantage of facing the Brewers for the first time. Only one healthy Milwaukee hitter (Carlos Gomez) has ever even faced him. Marcum gets the call for the home team. Like Bedard, he's off a gem in his last game. He went seven complete innings and he limited the Dodgers to only one run, striking out nine along the way. Marcum won't have the luxury of facing Pittsburgh for the first time. However, he will have the confidence that comes from knowing that he's dominated two of Pittsburgh's best hitters in the past. Andrew McCutchen is 1 for 8 against Marcum and Neil Walker is 1 for 11. Marcum was sharp in three of his four starts vs. Pittsburgh with the UNDER going 3-1. He's now allowed three earned runs or less in nine of 10 starts overall. I expect a well-pitched affair that stays below the total. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Colorado and Houston to finish UNDER the total. This has been a high-scoring series with all three games producing double-digits. Both teams have been profitable for "over" bettors, particularly Colorado. I feel this number is generously high though and that there's value with the UNDER for tonight's finale. Norris is 5-1 with a solid 3.34 ERA on the season. In 62 innings, he's struck out 62 batters. Over his last three starts, he's 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Norris faced Colorado last month and limited the Rockies to just four hits and two runs through seven innings. He had eight K's and the Astros won 3-2. Admittedly, Guthrie's numbers aren't too good. His ERA has been falling though and I believe he's a little better than the stats indicate. His 5/1 K/W ratio last time out was encouraging, although he was hurt by some unearned runs. Guthrie should be happy to see Houston. He's 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.733 WHIP in two starts vs. the Astros. Earlier this season, he limited Houston to four hits and three runs through seven complete innings, earning the "W" in a 5-3 Colorado victory. Guthrie's only previous career start against Houston finished with a final score of 2-1. Guthrie allowed a single run through eight innings. He gave up just three hits, struck out eight and walked only one. I look for both starters to give their respective teams a much needed strong performance and for tthis to be the lowest-scoring game of the series. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Nationals are rolling and they beat me last night. I feel this is a tough spot for them though and am going back against them this afternoon. While the Marlins played here yesterday afternoon, the Nationals played a late ESPN game at Atlanta. Although that's not that far in distance from Miami, it still meant traveling after that game and now starting their seventh straight divisional road game very early this afternoon. That should provide the Marlins with an advantage. Admittedly, Zimmerman has been tough. He's only got a 3-4 record but his 2.47 ERA and 1.063 WHIP shows he's been a lot better than his record indicates. Zambrano has been nearly just as good though. He's got a 2.85 ERA and 1.117 WHIP. They've both made nine starts. Zambrano has averaged 6.7 innings per start compared to Zimmerman's 6.5. Zambrano has more K's (44 to 40) and has allowed fewer home runs (4 instead of 5). While this season's stats are nearly equal, Zambrano has had considerably more success against today's opponent. He's 8-4 with a 3.21 ERA vs. Washington. He held the Nats to two hits and one run (6 K's, 0 walks) when he faced them at Washington last month. His previous start against them came in 2010 and he also allowed one run in seven innings in that one. On the other hand, Zimmerman lost 11-2 the last time he faced the Marlins, giving up six runs. He's 0-2 in five starts against the Marlins and the Nats were 1-4 in those games. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Marlins are having a great month. I expect them to bounce back this afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves should be desperate to stop the bleeding here. They've lost six straight and are on the verge of being swept by a division rival. While they're up against a tough pitcher, I expect them to bounce back with a badly needed victory. I like Gonzalez and have had success backing him numerous times. While Strasburg gets most of the hype, Gonzalez just keeps getting it done. That said, he hasn't been nearly as dominant on the road as he has been at home. At Washington, Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.61 WHIP, opposing batters are hitting .126. His road numbers are still very good - just not as remarkable. Away from Washington, he's 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA. The WHIP climbs all the way to 1.39. In 28 home innings, Gonzalez has walked only five batters. Yet, in 26 2/3 road innings, he's walked 17. As good as Gonzalez has been for Washington, one could easily argue that Beachy has been even better for Atlanta. Beachy's got a lower WHIP than Gonzalez and his 1.77 ERA is the best in the majors. While it's debatable who's been better overall, there's no arguing that Beachy has been better at home than Gonzalez has been on the road. We already looked at Gonzalez's road stats - very solid but not spectacular. Now, take a look at Beachy's home numbers. In three starts here, he's 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.65 WHIP, averaging nearly eight innings per start. Opposing batters are hitting only .160 against him here. He's only walked two batters here all season. Note that Beachy's career ERA at night is 2.77, nearly a full run lower than his 3.67 career mark during the day. On the other hand, Gonzalez has a 3.42 career ERA and 1.29 WHIP during the day but a much worse 3.95 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at night. While the Braves, who are without Chipper Jones, may not score that many runs, I don't expect them to need that one. They're a profitable 19-11 (+6.7) the last 30 times that they played at home with a line in the -101 to -125 range. Behind another strong home start from Beachy, I expect them to improve on those stats Sunday night. *10

Reason: I'm playing on San Francisco and Miami to finish UNDER the total. I was hoping this line would climb to 7.5 before I posted. So far, it hasn't. I still like it at "under 7" though, particularly when getting the underdog (plus money) price. The first three games of this series have all finished above the total. However, they've gradually been getting lower-scoring and I expect that trend to continue here. These same two pitchers opposed each other on May 1st. Cain was excellent. Nolasco was even better. Miami won 2-1. Nolasco allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings. Including that gem, he's 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA his last four against the Giants. The UNDER was 3-0-1 in those four games, all four producing seven or fewer combined runs. Nolasco has made seven starts against the Giants for his career. All seven have been of the "quality" variety and the UNDER is a profitable 5-1-1. He's 5-2 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in those games. While he hasn't been that great lately, obviously Nolasco should be thrilled to see SF. Cain gave up more hits than normal last time out, not his best outing. The eight K's vs. 0 walks shows he was still dominating a lot of hitters though and he's still having an excellent season. He's 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.902 WHIP. He's got 62 K's (in 64 innings) and has only walked 10 batters. Cain has made 10 starts against the Marlins. He's gone AT least six complete innings in all 10. He allowed four earned runs in one of those games, a 2010 game at SF. However, he allowed three or fewer in ALL nine of the other games. The UNDER is 3-0 his last three starts against the Marlins, all three of those coming against Nolasco. I expect another well-pitched affair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Giants have taken the first two games of this series. I expect the Brewers to bounce back and avoid the sweep here though. Zito has the better ERA and record. However, those stats are a little deceiving as Estrada's got the superior WHIP. I like the fact that Estrada has 23 K's in 23 home innings, only walking two. Zito, on the other hand, has a high 21 walks (vs. 28 Ks) on the season. Estrada has a 0.00 ERA vs. the Giants, having only faced them twice in relief. Zito is 2-3 with a poor 5.48 ERA vs. Milwaukee. Estrada said this of the Brewers current funk: "We're way too good to be playing like this. Things are going to change." Note that Estrada may not have to face "Brewer Killer," Buster Posey, as he may get the day off here. (He's 12 for 24 with 6 HRs and 15 RBIs in six games at Miller Park!) The Brewers, who are off to Arizona after this, have had a miserable homestand. They're still an excellent home team though and I look for them to be extremely motivated to avoid the sweep here. Catching the West-Coast based Giants playing an extremely early game, I expect the Brew Crew to do just that. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates rallied for a 5-4 victory in yesterday's series opener. The winning run was rather lucky as it came due to NY center fielder Nieuwenhuis misplaying a fly ball. As Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle noted: ''It's a gift and we were able to cash it in." With this game being played at Pittsburgh, I believe the matchup of McDonald vs. Dickey favors the Pirates. I look for them to ride the momentum from yesterday's comeback into this evening's contest. McDonald is quietly have an outstanding season. He's 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He's got 50 K's in 50 innings, walking only 16 and giving up just two home runs. Last time out, he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. McDonald has been particularly dominant here at home. In fact, four starts here, he's got a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .170 against him here. Pittsburgh catcher Rod Barajas said this of McDonald: "I think he's learning to pitch. He's learning to trust his stuff. He's competing, varying his pitch speeds, his location. He's just maturing as a pitcher." Like McDonald, Dickey has been much better at home. When pitching at New York, he's got a 2.33 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere 1.83 against him in four games against him there. However, when pitching on the road, he's got an ugly 5.40 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .312 against him in four road starts. Dickey is supported by a NY bulpen which has a 6.84 ERA and 1.666 WHIP on the road. Conversely, McDonald is backed by a Pitt. pen which has a 1.98 ERA and 1.171 WHIP at home. While Dickey has pitched quite well vs. Pittsburgh, McDonald has been even better vs. the Mets. The Pirates were 2-0 in McDonald's two starts against Pittsburgh last season (both came vs. Dickey) winning by scores of 3-2 and 5-1. In his last three starts vs. NY, McDonald has allowed just three runs in 20 innings, a 1.35 ERA. I expect him to get the better of Dickey once again, en route to another Pittsburgh victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. How about those Padres? San Diego is suddenly "surging," having won back-to-back games and three of five. Tuesday, they beat Strasburg and the Nationals by a score of 6-1. Yesterday, they knocked off these same Dodgers by a score of 4-2. While back-to-back victories aren't newsworthy in most cities, that's quite the streak for the Padres. I believe tonight's game offers an excellent chance for them to make it three in a row. I successfully backed Volquez in his most recent home start. He beat the Rockies by a score of 3-2. He since followed it up by beating Halladay and the Phillies, at Philadelphia. That brings Volquez to 2-0 (SD is 3-0) his last three starts with a superb 1.47 ERA in those games. He's made six starts here at Petco and has a 2.41 ERA and 1.098 WHIP here. After his last start, Volquez noted: "Everything was working tonight." Volquez will be up against a former teammate here, as he and Harang both pitched together in Cincinnti. While he has pitched better recently, Harang, the former Padre, hasn't been good on the road. He's 1-2 (LA is 1-3) with an ugly 5.32 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in his four road starts. Its also worth noting that Harang is 0-5 with a 5.84 ERA his last seven against San Diego. Harang is backed by an LA bullpen which enters today's game with a 4.91 ERA and 1.617 WHIP on the road. Volquez is backed by a SD pen which has a combined 2.90 ERA and 1.215 WHIP at home. As we saw yesterday, without Kemp, the LA lineup isn't nearly as potent. I expect the Padres to take advantage, winning three straight for the first time since last September. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. This line has fallen from its opener. I feel its providing us with excellent value on the home team. The Marlins are rolling these days. They won in dramatic fashion last night, with Heath Bell getting his first win as a Marlin. Dickey has admittedly had some success against the Marlins in the past. He's also pitched fairly well this season. However, a closer look reveals that his success has come at home. The Mets are 1-2 in his three road starts and he has an ugly 6.23 ERA in those games. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 2-0 in Nolasco's home starts and 5-1 in his six starts overall. He's 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA and has a superb 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP his last three starts, going at least seven complete innings in each of them. Both bullpens gave up some runs yesterday. Overall, the Marlins' bullpen has been far superior at home than the Mets' bullpen has been on the road though. Miami relievers entered the series with a 3.42 ERA, 3.22 (1.211 WHIP) at home. New York relievers entered the series with a 4.42 ERA overall including a terrible 6.27 (1.708 WHIP!) mark on the road. Playing at home and with momentum on their side, I expect the surging Marlins to keep on rolling for another day. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. While they lost yesterday, the Pirates still took two of three vs. Washington. They've won three of five and four of their last seven. I expect them to have the advantage for tonight's series opener vs. Houston. Both teams have identical 14-17 records. The Astros are 4-9 on the road though while the Pirates are 8-7 at home. After a rare 5-game winning streak, the Astros have cooled off a bit. They've lost three of four. Norris pitched well last time out. That was at home though. In three road starts, he's got a terrible 7.13 ERA and 1.698 WHIP. While he's been fortunate to get a lot of run support, he's unlikely to be so lucky here. McDonald has been very sharp, particularly at home. In three home starts, he's got a superb 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP. While Norris has allowed four home runs in three road starts, McDonald has only served one up in his three home starts. Norris got roughed up his last start vs. the Pirates, giving up nine hits in 5 2/3 innings, including three home runs. He's 1-3 with a poor 5.40 ERA in four starts at PNC Park. On the other hand, McDonald gave up just three hits (0 HRs) and a single run through 7 1/3 innings the last time that he faced the Astros. He's 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in five starts vs. the Astros. Overall, the Pirates are 10-4 the last 14 times that they were a host in the series. With McDonald on the mound, I feel they've got an excellent shot at improving on those stats and that this price is more than fair. *10 (Personal Favorite)

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I won with the Padres in Monday's opener. They followed up that 3-2 victory with a 3-1 win yesterday. While "3-0 sweeps" haven't been all that common for this team over the years, I expect the Padres to break out the brooms this afternoon. The Rockies are really struggling. They've now lost five straight. Friedrich was a #25 pick overall back in 2008. However, he has yet to live up to his potential. He's was 3-6 with a 5.05 ERA in Double-A in 2010 and 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA in 2011. While he's been a little better in Triple-A this season, this will still be Friedrich's major league debut. Even if Friedrich does pitch well, he's unlikely to get much support. The Rockies have scored four runs or less in 10 straight road games. For the season, they're averaging a mere 2.9 runs per game on the road, hitting just .213. Bass got roughed up last time out. However, he'd been excellent before that. Also, a closer look shows that he actually pitched well last time out, once he got past a rough outing. Manager Bud Black had this to say of Bass' effort: "Anthony did a great job of righting the ship, making pitches as he went along, A lot of pitchers cave in there, say it's not their night, but not Anthony, which is really a great sign for him." Note that Bass, who had two hits last game, is 2-1 with an excellent 2.40 ERA vs. the Rockies. The Rockies are now 25-39 (-20.5) in May the past 2+ seasons. On the other hand, the Padres are now 34-29 (+7.7) in May, during the same time. With this being an afternoon game, note that San Diego has also been much better than Colorado when playing during the day. The Rockies are 3-7 in day games this season, 58-60 (-12.6) the past 2+ seasons. During the same stretch, the Padres are a surprisingly profitable 67-53 (+21.3) when playing during the day. All things considered, I feel the low price is more than fair. Break out those brooms, the Padres close out the homestand with a sweep. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cubs grabbed yesterday's series opener by a score of 5-1. I feel they've got a great shot at doing it again tonight. Dempster may be 0-1, however he also leads the majors with a superb 0.95 ERA. His 0.812 WHIP is also outstanding. He's averaging better than seven innings per start and has 29 K's in 28 1/3 innings. Last time out, Dempster tossed eight shutout innings and allowed only three hits. He had six K's and walked one. That gives him a 0.87 ERA his last three starts. While lack of run support has clearly been a major issue for Dempster thus far, I don't expect it to be such a problem here. Not only did the Chicago bats come to life with three home runs yesterday but Delgado is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.465 WHIP. That includes an 0-3 record his last three starts with a 5.61 ERA. In two road starts this season, he's got a 6.10 ERA. While Dempster hasn't had many wins against the Braves over the years, he has pitched well his last few starts against them. He's got a 2.52 ERA his last five against them. I expect Dempster to get the better of Delgado and for his teammates to finally give him some support, as the Cubs keep it going and improve to .500 at home on the season. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Both teams are off a loss yesterday. The Rockies had to travel to Southern California after their setback though, while the Padres were already here. The Rockies have a starter that's been pitching well of late. However, the Padres have a starter going who has been even better lately. I expect them to start the series with a victory. Pomeranz gave up only one run in 6 2/3 innings last time out. He now has a stellar 2.30 ERA his last three starts. Note that his 1.34 WHIP during that stretch is only mediocre. Also, for the season he's got a 4.05 ERA and a poor 1.60 WHIP. He's only averaging five innings per start. Volquez has been even better lately and overall. After a bit of a slow start, Volquez has caught fire. He's got an outstanding 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last three starts. He allowed 0 runs in seven innings last time out, giving up a mere three hits. In his previous start, he also allowed only three hits in seven innings, giving up a single run. For the season, he's got a 2.92 ERA and 1.162 HIP including a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at Petco. In 32 innings here, he's got 31 K's, allowing only one home run. He's averaging better than six innings per start, 6.4 here at Petco. The Padre bullpen didn't get it done yesterday. Throwing more than 100 miles an hour, Andrew Cashner got roughed up, allowing four runs, three of them earned. That effort notwithstanding, the SD bullpen has been excellent. The Padres entered yesterday's game with a 2.74 ERA overall. On the other hand, the Rockies have an awful 5.31 ERA and 1.574 WHIP on the road. Colorado doesn't hit nearly as well on the road either. Prior to only scoring two runs there yesterday, the Rockies had been hitting very well at home. Indeed, they were averaging 6.8 runs at Coors Field, while hitting a highly respectable .290 as a team there. Hitting on the road has been an entirely different story. The Rockies enter tonight's game hitting .211 away from Colorado, averaging only 3.2 runs. As a team, their on-base-percentage on the road is a mere .259. Volquez has allowed two, one and three runs in his last three starts vs. Colorado. As well as Volquez has pitched, he has yet to officially earn his first home victory as a Padre. I expect that to change here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Angels gave Pujols the day off yesterday and won 6-2. With their slugger back in the lineup today, I expect them to follow up that big win with another this afternoon. Williams comes in red hot. In his last start, he allowed a mere three hits, while tossing a 4-0 shutout. He had six Ks with only walk. After getting rocked in his opening start, Williams has proceeded to go 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .199 against him during that stretch. On the other hand, Hutchinson gave up six runs in six innings his last start. Hutchinson has made three starts and opposing hitters are batting .309 against him. He's got a brutal 6.61 ERA overall. With the Angels off home, looking to salvage the series split and with some momentum on their side, I feel the relatively low price is more than fair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. Both these teams have started to roll the last couple of days. I expect it to be the Angels who continue doing so tonight. As you probably saw, the Angels got a no-hitter from Weaver last night, en route to a 9-0 victory and a 3-game sweep of the Twins. They didn't have any traveling. The Jays won big against Texas yesterday afternoon. They had to travel out West after that game though, making the long trip from Toronto to LA. I won with the Jays in Morrow's last start. So, I'm well aware that he pitched well and that he's a very capable starter. That was against his former team though, the light-hitting Mariners, against a lineup which he has has dominated. His previous start came against the Royals, who were really struggling at the time. When facing a somewhat tougher opponent (Tampa) he gave up six runs in six innings. Haren hasn't been getting many victories However, he's really been sharp lately. Over his last three starts, he's got a superb 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. Averaging better than seven innings in those starts, he's got 18 K's to just three walks. Morrow hasn't had much success against the Angels. He's 0-2 (team is 0-3) with a 4.76 ERA n three starts against them. His last start against them saw him walk four batters and give up five runs (4 earned) en route to a 5-1 loss. On the other hand, Haren's last start against the Jays saw him allow just four hits and one run through eight complete innings, en route to a 7-2 victory. He's 6-2 (team is 7-2) in nine starts vs. Toronto. The Angels are an outstanding 31-12 (+15.2) the last 2+ seasons when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less. Behind another solid effort from Haren, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. I lost with the Marlins yesterday, as their current skid continued. I expect them to bounce back today though and am willing to give them another shot. Kennedy brings an impressive 3-0 record (team is 3-1) to the table. His 3.86 ERA is solid. However, his 1.402 WHIP is only mediocre. Although, only 1-0, (team is 2-1) Sanchez has been better. He's got a stellar 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP. Sanchez has also been better against today's opponent. He's got a 3-1 (team is 4-1) in five starts vs. Arizona, posting a solid 3.71 ERA and a stellar 1.059 WHIP. Kennedy, on the other hand, is 2-1 but has a poor 4.91 ERA in three starts vs. the Marlins. While the Diamondbacks certainly hit the ball better yesterday, keep in mind that Arizona entered this series hitting just .227 on the round while Miami entered the series hitting .277 at home. Behind a big game from Sanchez, I look for the Marlins to finally get back on track. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI. The Marlins enter this game on a 5-game losing streak. I feel this matchup provides them with an excellent opportunity to get back on track though. Zambrano may remain winless but he's been outstanding. In three starts, he's got a superb 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP, averaging better than six innings per start. Last time out, he allowed one run and just two hits, through seven innings. He didn't walk a batter and had six Ks. In his previous start, which was his only one here at home thus far, he allowed one run and four hits, through six innings. To his credit, Saunders has also pitched very well. (Facing the likes of San Diego and Pittsburgh has helped.) Saunders has had real trouble against the Marlins though. In two starts against them, he's got a terrible 6.75 ERA. In his lone road start against the Marlins, he allowed 10 hits (three of them HRs!) and five runs through six innings. He took the loss as the Marlins won 6-4. Zambrano has enjoyed much more success against the Diamondbacks. Zambrano's lone 2011 start against Arizona resulted in a 4-2 win. Zambrano allowed just two runs and four hits through six complete innings. That was his third straight quality start against Arizona. While they did lose vs. a southpaw starter yesterday, the Marlins remain a highly profitable 59-41 (+19) their last 100 against left-handed starters. They're also 27-17 (+3.9) the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening, bouncing back with a much needed victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Nationals are off to a much better start than the Padres and they've also taken the first two games of this series. I feel this pitching matchup favors the home team though. While the Padres are currently listed as underdogs, I look for them to step up and avoid the sweep. There's no denying that Washington's starting pitching has been excellent. I feel the Padres will score some runs off the Nats today though. Edwin Jackson eventually settled down last time out. However, that was only after he gave up five runs in the first inning. Jackson took the loss, as Washington was beaten 11-4 by Houston. Many pitchers like facing the Padres, particularly at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Jackson isn't one of them though. He's 0-3 (team is 1-4) with a poor 5.16 ERA (and 1.633 WHIP) in five starts against San Diego. In his most recent start here, Jackson allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings. It could have been worse too, as he gave up nine hits, while walking four. While Jackson has a 5.40 ERA on the road, Volquez has a 3.50 ERA in three home starts. While walks have been a bit of an issue, he has yet to allow a home run here. He held the Phillies to three runs in six innings in his last start here and limited Arizona to just two runs through seven innings in his previous home start. Prior to that, in his first home start as a Padre, he kept the Dodgers to two runs. He's got 20 K's in 18 innings pitched here. Prior to coming to the Padres, Volquez had made three starts here. He allowed two runs or less in all three of those games, striking out 19 in 17 2/3 innings. While its been a disappointing start, San Diego manager Bud Black won't let his team quit. He was quoted as saying: "You can't think the season is lost in April. No matter if you're in first place or last place." I expect Black's crew to bounce back and avoid the sweep with Volquez earning his first "W" as a Padre along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds won big in yesterday's series opener. Facing a red hot Matt Cain, they pounded out 11 hits and a whopping nine runs. (Only three of those runs came against Cain.) Tonight's pitching matchup is a more favorable one for the Reds and I look for them to follow up yesterday's big win with another victory today. Arroyo gets the call for the Reds and he's off to the best start of his career. Through three starts, he's 1-0 with a 2.91 ERA, averaging better than seven innings per outing. A closer look reveals that he's also got 13 K's with only one walk and that he has an excellent 0.857 WHIP. Last time out, he limited the Cardinals to just five hits through eight innings. Arroyo was quoted as saying: "Really all the three times I've been out, I've been pounding the zone with strikes probably more than I have my whole career. I haven't been throwing a lot of balls. Coming out of spring, I was relatively healthy. My back feels good, my arm feels pretty good. I'm at least giving myself a chance to get off on the right foot." Zito has also gotten off to a very strong start. In fact, his numbers are even superior to Arroyo's - at least in the ERA department. Still, a closer look reveals that he lasted only five innings last time out, giving up two home runs and three walks in the process. While the overall numbers are still great, he's gotten worse each time out. In addition to the fact that he's been getting stronger (while Zito has been going the other way) Arroyo has better career numbers vs. the Giants. He's 3-2 with a superb 1.81 ERA over his last six starts against San Francisco. The Giants also haven't seen him since 2009, which may work in his favor. On the other hand, the Reds saw Zito in both 2010 and in 2011 and they pounded him each time. They scored five runs in 5 2/3 innings against him in 2010 and followed it up by scoring five runs in five innings against Zito last season. Since coming to the Giants in 2007, Zito is 0-2 with a terrible 7.20 ERA in five starts here. Last year's start here saw Zito take the loss as the Reds won 9-0. Note that Brandon Phillips, who had a home run and three RBIs yesterday, is 7 for 15 against Zito. Note that the Reds are a solid 56-48 the past 2+ seasons against southpaw starters including a 2-0 mark at home against left-handers this season. While both teams (obviously) played yesterday, note that the Reds had Monday off while the Giants played a double-header that day. That may have hurt SF a bit yesterday and could still have an effect here. Yesterday's 9-2 win brought the Reds to a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they were a host in this series. The Giants are hitting a mere .140 as a team (7 for 50!) during those six games. Overall, the Reds have outscored them by a combined 42-16 margin in those games. Behind another quality effort from Arroyo, I expect them to continue that domination today. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Jays in the opener of this series, as well as in their victory in the finale of the previous series, which was vs. Baltimore. Off a blowout loss yesterday, I feel this will be another good spot to back them. Note that the Jays are an outstanding 17-9 (+8.6) the past couple of seasons, after allowing double-digits in runs in their previous game. Alvarez has a stellar 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP thus far. Both his starts have been here at Toronto. So, he's clearly been comfortable here. He limited Baltimore to three runs through seven innings and held Boston to just one run in six innings. He hasn't hurt himself with walks, allowing just one in each game. Hellickson, on the hand, has seven walks in his two starts. He was good at home but has a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP from his lone road start. The Rays are at the end of a long road trip here. This will be their 10th straight away from Tampa. On the other hand, the Jays are at the end of a homestand and head out on a fairly long trip of their own after this. I expect them to be highly motivated to close out the homestand with a victory and behind another solid effort from Alvarez, I expect them to do just that. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON. The Rangers are playing well and easily grabbed yesterday's series opener. I expect the Red Sox to return the favor this evening though. Holland's numbers are a bit better than Beckett's thus far. That was thanks to Beckett getting roughed up in his first start, at Detroit, though. Beckett has already responded with a dominant effort in his most recent outing, limiting Tampa Bay to five hits and one run, through eight complete innings. That gives him a 1.12 ERA and 0.75 WHIP at home. Note that Holland will be making his first road start. He's faced the White Sox and Mariners thus far. Those teams both entered Tuesday's action in the bottom five of the AL, in terms of runs scored. Each were in the bottom three in terms of hits. The Red Sox, already 2-1 against southpaw starters (2-0 here at Fenway) figure to be a much tougher opponent. They're averaging 6.3 runs per game against southpaw starters, nine runs per game in the two home games vs. southpaws. Admittedly, Holland's career numbers vs. Boston are good and he was very sharp against the Red Sox the only time he faced them last season. Beckett was also very tough in his lone 2011 start vs. the Rangers though, allowing one run on four hits, en route to a 13-2 victory. While the Red Sox have tomorrow off, the Rangers will be playing a big game at Detroit. Behind another strong game from Beckett, I expect the Bosox to bounce back and avoid the "sweep." *10

Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Atlanta Braves welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to town Friday afternoon in their home opener riding a two game win streak after going 0-4 to start the season. The Brewers are 4-3 after getting beat up by the Chicago Cubs and Matt Garza Thursday afternoon 8-0. The Braves had been in an offensive funk to start the season scoring 10 runs in their first 4 games before getting perennial all star and first ballot hall of famer Chipper Jones back in the lineup Tuesday afternoon. Chipper made his offensive presence known right away smacking a two run homer and leading the Braves to their first 2 wins of the season in back to back games. He is batting .444 since getting back in the lineup but more than that, the Braves have found their groove with their leader back as the young phenoms Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman have less pressure to perform. It cannot be stressed how important Chipper is to the psyche of this lineup. This is evidenced by the fact that the Braves have piled on 12 runs in their past 2 games as Heyward looks like he has found his power stroke that had Bobby Cox comparing him to Hank Aaron in spring training last season. Opposing the Braves will be Randy Wolf. At 35 years old, Wolf is well past his prime and with a career record of 127-108 with an ERA of 4.09, WHIP of 1.33 and opponents batting avg. of .255, I believe Wolf will be in tough Friday afternoon. In Wolf's first start of the season, he had no answer for the St. Louis Cardinals lineup as their offense put up a .375 combined batting average against him while posting 9 hits over 5 innings of work. Jair Jurrjens takes to the mound for Atlanta after struggling in his first start of the season. Before writing him off, keep in mind that Jurrjens had the best season of his young career in 2011 with a record of 13-6 an ERA of 2.96, WHIP of 1.22 and opponents batting avg. of .252. In fact, Jurrjens is a commanding 50-34 overall in his career. He's also 2-1 lifetime against Milwaukee with an ERA of 2.95 and WHIP of 1.21. I expect Jurrjens to find his groove against the Brewers on Friday as he looks to regain the form that challenged Roy Halladay for the NL starting pitcher role in the All Star game in 2011. Look for Jurrjens to out pitch Wolf on Friday afternoon and when the Braves take the lead into the 7th inning look to O'Flaherty, Venters and Kimbrel to seal the deal. After being compared to the Cincinnati Reds "Nasty Boys" of 1990 World Series fame, there is no other trio in 2011 that came close to putting up the numbers that these 3 did out of the pen. In 2011, Eric O'Flaherty became the first Major League to pitcher to record a sub 1.00 ERA with at least 70 appearances, Jonny Venters has allowed a total of 3 home runs in his last 171 innings and Craig Kimbrel led the Majors last season with a staggering 14.84 K/9 innings on his way to 46 saves and Rookie of the Year honors. The Braves were 47-34 last season at home, the Brewers were 39-42 on the road. In the past 3 seasons, the Brewers are 17-30 as a road underdog of +100 to +125, the Braves are 31-15 in the same time frame as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. Atlanta is 10-5 against Milwaukee in the past 3 seasons and has won the last 5 straight at home between these two. With the pitching matchup, venue and momentum in their favor, at this price, I believe the value in this game clearly lies with the Braves. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. Both teams are off a loss last game; each had Thursday off. At 3-2 KC has gotten off to a better start than Cleveland though, as the Indians are only 1-4. Playing their home opener, I look for the Royals to be the team which bounces back with a victory. Hochevar goes for the Royals. He outpitched Dan Haren, at LA, in his opening start, winning as a +170 underdog. Hochever's career numbers against Cleveland admittedly aren't spectacular. He was dominant his last start against the Indians though, allowing just three hits and a single unearned run, through eight innings. He got the "W" as KC won 5-1. Lowe was also sharp in his first start. He's getting a little long in the tooth though. This will be his first start at KC for several years. His last start here came way back in 2005. He allowed eight runs (3 earned) and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings, en route to suffering a 9-6 loss. The Royals are only hitting .244 against right-handed starters. That's admittedly not too great. However, Cleveland is far worse, hitting a mere .159 vs. right-handed starters. If early numbers are any indication, KC also figures to have the advantage in the bullpen department. The Royals' relievers have a respectable 3.37 ERA through 18 2/3 innings, thus far. On the other hand, Cleveland relievers have a terrible 6.65 ERA through 23 combined innings. KC relievers have walked just six batters, allowing only one home run. Cleveland relievers have allowed four home runs, walking 12. The Indians gave up 10 runs last time out, a 10-6 setback. With Lowe on the mound, they're unlikely to give up that many again here. However, that doesn't mean they're going to fare any better. Look for the Indians to fall to 6-21 the last 27 times that they gave up double-digits in runs in their previous game. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I successfully played against the Giants in Bumgarner's first matchup. I feel this will be a far more favorable matchup for Bumgarner and the Giants though. In his first start, Bumgarner was up against Daniel Hudson. Not surprisingly, he didn't get tons of run support. He's opposed by veteran Jamie Moyer here though and that should lead to some solid report. Most would have thought he retired, as Moyer hadn't started since 2010. However, he actually had Tommy John surgery. He struggled in his first start (4 runs, 3 earned, in 5 innings) and has an ugly 6.88 ERA while losing his last three outings against San Francisco. On the other hand, Bumgarner has been dominant in his last five meetings with the Rockies, going 2-1 with a commanding 0.82 ERA. In his only start at Coors Field in that stretch, he allowed only a single unearned run in seven innings, en route to earning a 9-1 victory Sept. 16. This will be the first southpaw starter that the Giants will have faced this season. They should be happy about that as they were 54-38 (+10.9) the last two years against left-handed starters. After yesterday's blowout loss, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. At 5-1, St. Louis is looking for its fourth win in a row. Cincinnati is just 2-3 on the season. After taking 2 of 3 in their opening series against Miami, obviously the Reds were hoping for better results in this series. I expect them to step up and to salvage the final game of the series here though, avoiding the sweep. The Cardinals have been on fire to start the season having hit 11 home runs in their first 6 games. Leading the charge is David Freese who has been on a torrid pace so far mashing 3 home runs and 10 RBI to start the season. Naturally, St. Louis cannot keep up this pace forever though. I expect the Cards to hit a wall Wednesday afternoon in the name of Johnny Cueto. Cueto is 1-0 on the season after pitching 7 scoreless innings against the high powered Marlins offense in his opening start; he gave up just 3 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts. In 24 starts last season, Cueto's stuff was electric, going 9-5 with a microscopic 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In fact, at 25 years old, I believe this could be the year Cueto breaks out and positions himself as a darkhorse CY Young Candidate. Don't be surprised if Cueto goes 7 strong again here, before turning the ball over to the budding superstar Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has recorded the hardest fastball ever clocked in an MLB game at 105 mph. In 3 innings pitched this year, he has been virtually untouchable giving up 1 hit and striking out 5. In 71 career games, Chapman is 7-3 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and opponents batting average of .155! In 66.1 career innings, Chapman has 95 strikeouts. Chapman's one knock has been walks, having given up 41 in 50 innings in 2011, he had made it his goal in spring training to work on his command. Chapman was 2-0 as a starter in the spring with a 2.12 ERA. Opposing Cueto will be Jaime Garcia who is 1-0 on the season winning his opener 11-5 over the Milwaukee Brewers. Garcia had a decent outing, allowing 2 runs and 5 hits over 6 innings. In 7 games against Cincinnati he is 6-1 with a 3.13 ERA. In 71 career games, Garcia is 28-16 with an ERA of 3.27, WHIP of 1.32 and opponents batting average of .258. Clearly, he's no slouch. Still, I don't expect him to be quite as tough as Cueto. Wednesday's battle should be a low scoring affair with pitching at a premium. On paper, Cueto is a slight favorite over Garcia and being at home facing a potential sweep, look for the Reds bats to lead the charge and provide the victory for the home town crowd. Joey Votto has had a slow start to the season but has hit the ball hard to all fields. Despite batting .154 on the season with 1 home run and 2 RBI, look for Votto heat up in this one. With a career batting average of .312, its only a matter of time for the 2010 NL MVP. As cold as Votto has been, Jay Bruce has been the exact opposite. In 4 games this season he has 3 home runs and 5 RBI. With a new, patient approach at the plate, look for the 24 year old Bruce to continue the pace he set last year when he hit 32 home runs and evolve into one of the stars of the game. In the past 3 seasons the Reds are 95-74 at home and 91-68 against their own division. Tomorrow is a critical game for them to prove they can compete and win against the top teams in the Central, a sweep at home to the Cardinals this early in the season could be devastating. Look for a highly motivated team effort and a big game for Cueto as the Reds deliver a much-neeed victory for their home fans. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I won with the Padres on Sunday. Facing the possibility of starting the season 0-4, the Padres responded with a solid win over LA. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evenings opener against Arizona. Cahill did win 18 games in 2010. However, he was only 12-14 with a 4.06 ERA in pitcher-friendly Oakland. He also had a poor 4.86 ERA in the spring. Volquez had some control issues in his opening start. He's already got a start under his belt now though and figures to settle down here. The Padres actually won the season series vs. Arizona last season. In fact, they're an impressive 13-5 (+7.4) the last 18 times that they were a host in this series. Don't be 'shocked' when they improve on those stats tonight with Arizona falling to 12-25 the last 37 times it played a road game with an O/U line of seven or less. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Royals are off to the better start. I expect the A's to be the team which starts this series off with a victory though. Lets keep in mind that the Royals are 61-104 on the road the past couple of seasons while hte A's are a respectable 90-74. Mendoza may have had a strong spring, but he was 2-6 with a terrible 9.40 ERA as a starter last season. Milione was very solid for the A's after getting called up last September. He was 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA. The A's have won 12 of the last 20 series meetings here and I look for them to get it done once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The defending champs are off to a nice start, seemingly unaffected by the loss of Pujols. I feel they'll be in tough here though. The Reds are in one of their best roles. They're 26-13 (+10.6) the past couple of seasons, when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range. Its true that Bailey's overall numbers against St. Louis are not good. However, he did pitch a gem in his lone home start against the Braves last season. In that one, he allowed a mere three hits and one run, through 7 1/3 innings, en route to a 3-1 victory. (Westbrook gave up two home runs in five innings in his lone start at Cincinnati last season. While he's 2-1, his team is 2-5 in his seven starts vs. the Reds.) Note that Westbrook has a terrible 4.96 ERA in April, which by far is his worst in any month. Including Bailey's 3-1 victory last July, the Reds are 5-1 their last six as a host in this series. I expect them to improve on those stats here, starting the series off with a victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Poor Padres. Its only April 8th and they're already 0-3. While it may indeed prove to be another long year, I do expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon. Former Padre Aaron Harang goes for LA. He's 0-4 with a terrible 5.82 ERA his last five starts against San Diego. On the other hand, Clayton Richard is 4-1 with a stingy 2.58 ERA in seven career outings against the Dodgers, including 2-0 with a stellar 2.45 ERA in four at home. Richard struggled at the beginning of the spring but closed out strong. He tossed six shutout innings in his final spring start. He had 5 K's without walking a batter in that game, allowing just three singles. After that outing Richard was quoted as saying: "With the progress I made late in spring it

Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks grabbed yesterday's opener. They'll now be going for their seventh straight win over the Giants. With Daniel Hudson on the mound, I expect them to continue that recent series dominance. Hudson went 7-1 with a superb 1.69 ERA in 2010 after the Dbax acquired him from Chicago at the trade deadline. Last season, he followed it up by going 16-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 33 starts. It should be mentioned that Hudson was 7-6 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the road but an even better 9-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. When pitching at home he gave up fewer walks and home runs, while striking out more. Also, note that Hudson was 2-0 with a superb 2.37 ERA this spring, too. In his final spring start, Hudson was dominant, limiting the Dodgers to a single run through five shutout innings. After that game Hudson was quoted as saying:

Reason: I'm playing on MILAWAUKEE. The Cardinals got the season started with a win at Miami. They're still just 86-87 (-8.5) on the road the past couple of seasons. During the same stretch, the Brewers have gone an outstanding 102-67 (+18.8) at home. Gallardo has been a huge part of that success as he was a commanding 11-2 (Brewers were 15-3) in 18 home starts last season. He had a 2.80 ERA and 1.109 WHIP here, recording 121 K's to only 28 walks. On the other hand, Garcia had a 4.97 ERA and 1.555 WHIP on the road last season. The Cards were 8-10 (-4) in his 18 road starts. True, Gallardo has had some trouble with St. Louis. However, the same can be said of Garcia here at Milwaukee. His last start here saw him allow six runs in four innings, en route to a 9-6 loss. In the end, I look for Gallardo and the revenge-minded Brewers to start the new season and post-Fielder era off with a victory over the hated Cards. *10

Reason: I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE. (+1.5 Runs.) With the Dodgers listed as mid-sized road favorites, we're able to get a very reasonable price on the run-line option with the Padres. In a game that could well be low-scoring - games at Petco are famous for being low-scoring and this game has an O/U line of 6u20 - every extra run becomes even more valuable. That said, I feel the run-line is offering us excellent value here. Kershaw, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, is obviously tough - and he's enjoyed plenty of success against the Padres over his career. They've also seen him a lot though, so at least have some familiarity. Volquez, on the other hand, has only made one start against the Dodgers and that came back in April of 2008. For what it's worth, Volquez was dominant (1.29 ERA) in that game. He allowed just one run and only three hits, striking out seven in seven innings, en route to an 8-1 victory. Volquez, a former 17-game winner, should be thrilled to come over from hitter-friendly Cincinnati to pitcher-friendly San Diego. He should be also be highly motivated to get off to a good start in front of his new fans. In getting the opening day start, he was quoted as saying: "It is very exciting for me. It's my second time doing it and it's a big honor for me. To come to a new team and have them pick me feels good." Note that Volquez has made three career starts here and that he allowed two runs or less in ALL three. (He won two and all three were decided by a single run.) The Reds were 10-6 in Volquez's 16 April starts. While I won't be at all surprised if the Padres continue that winning trend, I'll gladly grab the extra +1.5 runs to make my chances of cashing even better. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals have to feel pretty fortunate to be in this position. For much of the season, it didn't look like they'd even make the playoffs. Now, they've done everything but hand the World Series to Texas on a silver platter and yet they're still home for a Game 7 with their ace, Chris Carpenter on the mound. Last night, after already having battled back a couple of times, the Cards found themselves down two runs and down to their final strike in the ninth inning. Yet, they managed to force extra innings. Then, down two runs in the 11th, they won 10-9. As Freese, potential "goat" turned hero said: "We just kept battling, that defines our team. It's incredible to be part of this." Obviously, they're "sky high" after that remarkable victory. I would argue that the pressure is less now, as they were already "dead" yesterday. On the other hand, the Rangers figure to be devastated. Yesterday's game will go down in history and if they lose today, they'll know they'll go down in the record books with the likes of the Buffalo Bills, teams that got to the big game more than once, but couldn't win it. That makes for considerable pressure. Indeed, no team had ever come back twice in the ninth inning or later to tie a World Series game or take the lead - and Texas was on the wrong side of that. The Rangers gave it everything they had last night and still came up short. Its true that they've been bouncing back all season but I really feel they "left it all on the field" yesterday and that it will be tough to bounce back from that today. True, he didn't pitch that well on 3-day's rest earlier. However, Carpenter only threw 101 pitches last time out. At the time, taking him out may have been a questionable decision by La Russa - but it should serve Carpenter well here. He's 3-0 with a 3.30 ERA over five postseason starts this season compared to Harrison's 1-1 mark and 5.02 ERA in his three starts and four appearances overall. I'm backing the team with the momentum, the team with the support of the home fans the team with the former Cy Young Award winner on the mound. *10 Annihilator

Reason: I'm playing on Texas and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. Its certainly been a "bizarre" World Series. We've seen a couple of "crazy" high-scoring games, as we did last night. We've also seen four "low-scoring" ones too, though. In fact, four of the six games have produced six or fewer combined runs. Prior to last night's "wildness," the previous two games here at St. Louis had finished with scores of 3-2 and 2-1. The two games that Carpenter was involved in had scores of 3-2 and 4-2. After the previous high-scoring game (16-7 Game 3) the bats went cold, with the teams combining for only four runs the next game. While Harrison hasn't been dominant in the postseason, he's had a very solid season and is more than capable. His manager has been adamant about having him in there for Game 7. Meanwhile, Carpenter has proven that even at 36 he remains among the best "big game" pitchers in the game. (Who can forget his showdown vs. Halladay.) I expect him to "do his thing" as this game does a complete reversal from last night, with improved pitching (and better defense!) stealing the show. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on ST LOUIS. Tony LaRussa and the Cardinals are taking a lot of heat for their Game 5 loss. In fact, many appear to be writing them off. While some of that 'heat' is certainly deserved, that doesn't mean that the Cards can't respond with a victory in Game 6. In fact, with this game back at Busch Stadium and with Jamie Garcia on the mound, I expect them to do just that. You may recall that Garcia delivered a gem in Game 2, tossing seven scoreless innings. The fact is, in addition to having a solid 3.97 October ERA overall, Garcia been getting it done at home all season. He was 9-4 with a superb 2.55 ERA here in 15 starts here, compared to 4-3 with a poor 4.61 ERA on the road. Opposing batters hit only .230 against him here but .313 on the road. In October, Garcia has posted a 7.36 ERA in two games away from Busch Stadium compared to a 0.77 mark in St. Louis. Garcia had this to say: "I prepared myself really good in between starts and I feel really good about myself right now. I know it's going to be a tough challenge, a tough team, a tough lineup. But at the same time, we feel really good as a team, too." Lewis also pitched well in Game 2 and is certainly capable. That said, he's got an ERA above four on the season and he's allowed 38 home runs compared to Garcia's 18, despite the two pitching a nearly identical (218.7 vs. 217.3) number of innings. The Rangers haven't hit as well away from Texas all season and they didn't hit well here at all in the first two games. Even with the Game 5 setback, the Cards are still a profitable 47-32 (+11.6) off a loss. They haven't lost three in a row in weeks and they're 13-7 their last 20 here at home. I'm not counting them out yet. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Texas & Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Tonight's game features a rematch of the Game 2 starters, Scherzer and Holland. While I didn't personally play on that game, some of you may recall that Game 2 was truly a tough beat for 'under' bettors. The score was 3-3 into the bottom of the 11th when Cruz hit arguably the biggest of his many home runs this series, a walk-off grand slam. Assuming we can avoid multiple runs being scored in extra innings again, I expect a low-scoring affair here. True, the Rangers are known to hit well in this park. However, the Tigers typically don't nearly hit as well on the road. They managed only five total runs in the first two games here and average 4.5 on the road overall. Not bad but not nearly as many as they score at home. For the playoffs overall, the Tigers are batting a dismal .232, averaging only 3.7 runs. As for the Rangers' big bats, they're actually batting only .238 during the playoffs, averaging 4.4 runs. While Holland wasn't at his best in Game 2, he's still a guy with a 17-5 record and his ERA still remains below four. He won his lone start against the Rays. Scherzer is certainly capable and the Tigers know they'll need him to come up big here. Prior to limiting the Rangers to three runs in six innings last time out, he shut down the Yanks, pitching six scoreless innings at the Bronx. Both bullpens should benefit from finally getting a day off yesterday. While the last couple of games have been high-scoring, I look for the opposite to be true tonight. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST LOUIS. I successfully played on the Brewers when today's two starters squared off against each other in Game 1. That was at Milwaukee though. While the Brewers did snap their lengthy playoff road losing streak yesterday, they're still generally not nearly as strong away from Milwaukee. While great at home, note that the Brewers hit just .245 on the road, averaging only 4.1 runs. Like most of the opposing Brewers, St. Louis starter Garcia prefers to sleep in his own bed. He's been inconsistent on the road all season but terrific at home. Indeed, he's 9-5 with a stellar 2.63 ERA and 1.113 WHIP here. He took the loss in his last start here but still delivered a quality performance, limiting the Phillies to three runs through seven innings. The Cards are a lucrative 11-5 (+3.4) in his 16 starts here. Greinke got the win in Game 1 but that wasn't due to the way he pitched. In fact, he allowed six runs in six innings. For the season, while he was perfect at home, he was just 5-6 with a poor 4.70 ERA on the road. The last time that Garcia pitched at home against the Brewers was back in the spring. All he did was toss a complete-game 2-hit shutout, en route to earning a 6-0 victory. I expect him to bounce back and for the Cards to win this critical game. *10

Reason: I'm playing on St. Louis and Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total. The bats certainly came to life yesterday. I expect a much lower-scoring affair here though. Neither of these starting pitchers has a particularly "big name" but both quietly had solid seasons and both are fully capable of coming up big here. Marcum didn't fare too well in his first postseason start but is still 13-7 with a solid 3.54 ERA and stingy 1.16 WHIP on the season. Jackson, who was solid against the Phillies in his playoff debut, is 12-9 with a respectable 3.79 ERA. Marcum has seen the UNDER go 9-3-3 his last 15 starts and he saw the UNDER go 2-1-1 against the Cards this season. He last faced them on 8/30 and allowed 0 earned runs through seven innings. That game finished with a score of 2-1, as the Cards scored a pair of unearned runs. Three of Marcum's four starts against the Cards finished with eight or fewer combined runs. Jackson struggled the first time he faced the Brewers but went 1-0 with a stellar 2.08 ERA in his most recent two starts against them. He opposed Marcum in the 8/30 game and allowed just one run through seven complete innings, without walking a batter. After the 8/30 game, Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke said this: "Edwin Jackson was outstanding. That was as good as I've seen him throw." I won't be surprised if this one also proves far lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10 (Blue Chip)

Reason: I'm playing on the UNDER in the Milwaukee/Arizona game. Both games at the desert were high-scoring. Back in Milwaukee and with both aces on the mound, I expect a much lower-scoring affair this afternoon. Gallardo has a superb 1.27 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his last three starts and he's 11-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.097 WHIP here at home. The UNDER is 10-7 in his home starts. Meanwhile, Kennedy is 21-5 with a superb 2.95 ERA and 1.093 WHIP on the season. The UNDER is 19-14-1 in his 34 starts. Looking at some more O/U stats shows that the Brewers have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 114-75, excluding 'pushes' the last 189 times that they allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game, including a 5-2 UNDER mark their last seven in that situation. The Game 1 meeting between these two starters produced just five runs, a 4-1 Milwaukee win. Gallardo's previous home start against Arizona resulted in a 3-1 game. Gallardo's got 33 K's (and only three walks) in his last three starts, allowing one run in each. I expect him to continue his strong pitching and that to keep this one below the number. *10

Reason: I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. Written off by many, the Yankees are still alive thanks in large part to a clutch performance from AJ Burnett. Back home for a 1-game showdown and given a "new life," I expect them to make the most of their opportunity and to advance to face Texas in the AL Finals. Both starters have had strong seasons and both finished the regular season in excellent current form. Nova was much better than Fister when the two finished Game 1, after Verlander and Sabathia had started that game the previous day. Nova allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings, both coming in the 9th inning. Fister, on the other hand, allowed six runs in 4 2/3 innings. That translates to an 11.57 ERA After struggling in that outing and given his previous numbers against the Yankees, Fister's confidence may not be that high here. As a starter (he didn't officially start Game 1) Fister is 1-2 with a poor 6.00 ERA vs. the Yankees, including a loss in his lone start here in New York. The Detroit bullpen enters today's game with a 4.14 ERA and 1.413 WHIP on the season, including a 3.93 ERA and 1.376 WHIP on the road. On the other hand, the New York bullpen enters today's game with a 3.10 ERA and 1.283 WHIP on the season, including a 2.93 ERA and 1.233 WHIP at home. The Tigers hit .267 on the road, averaging 4.6 runs. Conversely, the Yankees hit .273 at home, averaging 5.8 runs. The Yanks are 9-3 (+4.3) the last 12 times that they hosted the Tigers. The Tigers were a respectable 45-36 on the road this season but the Yankees were an excellent 52-29 at home. The Tigers were a money-burning 40-54 (-11) the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. During that stretch, the Yanks have gone an outstanding 95-41 (+23.3) when playing at home, with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. I expect the Yanks to advance and all things considered, I feel the price is reasonable. *10

I'm playing on St. Louis and Philly to finish UNDER the total. After the first two games at Philadelphia both finished above the total, yesterday's game here at St. Louis stayed below the total. That often seems to happen when the venue shifts, as it did in the Rangers/Rays series - both games at Texas finished above the total but both at Tampa stayed below. I expect another well-pitched affair in Game 4 today and with the O/U line having climbed from seven to 7.5, I feel we're getting excellent value.

Oswalt gets the call for the Phillies. I successfully played against "Little Roy" a few times during the regular season and noted that he wasn't as dominant as the "Big 3," of Halladay, Lee and Hamels. That doesn't mean that I don't respect him though and that he's still not capable of getting it done. Indeed, Oswalt is in the starting rotation for good reason - he's a perfect 5-0 with a very solid 3.25 ERA in 10 career playoff starts. That includes a 2-0 mark with a 3.15 ERA in three playoff starts against the Cards.

Oswalt, who had a 2.61 ERA his final three reg. season starts, knows what to do here and is obviously not bothered by the big stage. He was quoted as saying: "My approach is to try to set the tone early, attack hitters ... "

Jackson certainly doesn't have the postseason resume that Oswalt does but he's also very capable. He was 5-2 with a 3.62 ERA in 12 starts since coming over to the Cards in July. Nine of those starts were of the "quality" variety. In his "home" starts this season, Jackson had a superb 2.94 ERA, much better than his mark on the road.

Three of Jackson's last four home starts have stayed below the total. In his eight starts here at St. Louis, he allowed two or fewer earned runs seven times. Oswalt tossed six shutout innings last time and has seen the UNDER go 3-1-1 his last five. He's allowed one earned run or less in four of his last six October starts, allowing three or fewer in five of those. I expect another well-pitched affair. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on DETROIT. As you probably know, tonight's game features the same two starters that we (briefly) saw in Game 1, which was eventually postponed and played the next day. As a result, Sabathia and Verlander know go head-to-head here at Detroit, rather than at New York. I expect that to favor the Tigers.

Detroit averaged 5.1 runs per game here this season, hitting a healthy .288. On the other hand, the Yankees hit .252 on the road, averaging 4.9 runs. The Yankees were 45-36 on the road. The Tigers, however, were a terrific 50-31 at home.

Sabathia remains among the elite. However, this season, Verlander was in a class of his own. Sabathia went 19-8 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Excellent numbers, no doubt. Verlander went a remarkable 24-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.925 WHIP though. At home, he was 10-3 with a 2.37 ERA, striking out 117 in 117 innings.

Another thing about this game being played at Detroit, Sabathia is 0-4 with a terrible 7.56 ERA in his last four starts here.

The Tigers averaged 5.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season and they're a profitable 86-63 (+17.7) against southpaw starters the past few seasons.

The Tigers are 27-22 vs. the Yankees at Comerica Park and they took three of four against the Yanks here in May.

The Tigers have won 16 of their last 20 home games. They know this is their chance to seize control of the series and I look for them to make the most of it. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on St. Louis and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The first two days of playoff action have been high-scoring, more than we usually expect. Four of the first five games finished above the total, including Game 1 of this series. I expect a much lower-scoring affair in Game 2 on Sunday night though.

Yesterday's game got "thrown off course" early, as Halladay uncharacteristically allowed three runs in the first inning. That meant the Phillies were "forced" to put up big runs, in order to win - which they did. Note that Halladay didn

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Rays have certainly shown that we can never count them out. That said, while they've been a remarkable story, I feel they'll be in over their heads this afternoon.

I'm aware that the visiting team won each game in last year's playoff series. I expect homefield to help the red hot Rangers this year though. Texas, which has won 14 of its last 16 games and six straight, was 52-29 here this season.

While the lineup is arguably even better, the Rangers no longer have Cliff Lee, as they did last year. That means that CJ Wilson has become the team's ace. He's been more than up to to the task. For the season, he was 16-7 with an extremely stingy 2.86 ERA and 1.182 WHIP, recording more than 200 K's. He's got a 1.88 ERA his last three outings.

You may recall that Wilson threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Rays in Game 2 of last year's playoff series. More recently, only a few weeks ago on 9/6, Wilson tossed a complete game shutout against the Rays, en route to earning an 8-0 blowout win. In fact, he's 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP vs. the Rays.

While the Rangers have known Wilson would start for some time, the Rays have decided to go with Matt Moore. Some may remember that Moore made a spot start for the Rays against the Yankees on 9/22. He pitched well in that game, although only went five innings. Still, that was his first big league start and he was up against a Yankee lineup which was missing some key players and which knew it was already in the playoffs. Facing a red hot and highly motivated Texas team is an entirely different matter.

The Rangers average 6.1 runs per game in this ballpark, hitting a staggering .296 as a team here. With Wilson continuing his dominance of the Rays, I expect them to start things off with an important victory. *10

I'm playing FLORIDA on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 Runs.) I won with the Marlins yesterday, a 1-run win for Florida. I feel that the Marlins have an excellent shot at closing out their season and their time at this stadium with a victory. In fact, I expect them to do so. However, as they're listed as fairly healthy underdogs on the moneyline, we're able to get them at an excellent price on the run-line. In a game that could easily again be close, like yesterday's that may well prove valuable and that's the way I'm going to play it.

The Nats are favored largely because they've got Stepehn Strasburg on the mound. He's certainly got bigtime talent. However, he's also made just four starts since coming off Tommy John surgery. He's seen his innings limited since coming back and has only gone more than five innings once - a six-inning effort in a 4-1, 13-inning loss to these same Marlins on Sept. 17. Note that this will be Strasburg's first road start.

Volstad outlasted Strasburg in the 9/17 game, although he didn't factor in the decision either. He followed it up with a gem last time out. That's back to back games where he's gone seven complete innings and allowed only a single run.

While the Nats are 1-2 in Straburg's starts vs. Florida, the Marlins are 10-3 in Volstad's starts vs. Washington.

True, the Marlins can't wait to get out of here and into their new home. Still, they've gone 780-720 in 19 years here and I believe that they would like to close things out with a victory, while also playing hard for 80-year-old Jack McKeon, who will retire at season

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Nationals grabbed yesterday's opener. However, with Javier Vazquez taking the mound, I expect the Marlins to bounce right back this evening.

Vazquez has spoken of retirement. However, given the way that he's been pitching, its hard to imagine that actually happening. Indeed, he hasn't given up a run in 25 innings - a Marlins' record (for starting pitchers). While he has a 0.00 ERA his last three outings, he's got a 0.25 ERA his last five. Truly, a remarkable streak. Since a 9-5 loss to Arizona in early June, he's gone 9-5 with an extremely stingy 1.91 ERA.

Not that he figures to need much help, but Vazquez should get some solid run support here. Lannan is 0-2 with a poor 5.40 ERA vs. Florida this season and he's 1-2 with a terrible 8.00 ERA in four lifetime starts at Sun Life Stadium.

While Lannan did get a victory last time out, he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings. So, he was hardly dominant. He's now 1-2 with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 2.176 WHIP his last three, averaging only 4.4 innings per start.

With the Marlins motivated to bounce back and end their final series (ever) here on a high note and given the current form of the starters, I feel the price is more than fair. *10 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. At first glance, this price seems rather high, given that the Padres are a losing team which is "playing out the string." However, the same can be said of the team which they are hosting and the matchup on the mound figures to give the Padres a significant advantage.

Latos has been much better than his record indicates. He's also in excellent current form. Last time out, at Colorado, he allowed just one run through 8 2/3 innings. He had an impressive nine K's with just one walk, en route to earning a 2-1 victory. Going back a bit further finds him with a stellar 2.38 ERA and 1.059 WHIP his last three starts. During that 3-game stretch, he has 25 K's and only three walks, averaging 7 2/3 innings per start.

While lack of run support has been a recurring theme for Latos, he should get some help tonight. As a starter, Coleman is 3-8 with a terrible 6.40 ERA and 1.784 WHIP on the season.

Going back to the high price, note that the Padres are 16-6 (+6.6) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Should the line climb above that mark, note that San Diego is 37-18 (+3.5) the past 55 times it was a home favorite in the -175 to -200 range, including 5-2 (+1.2) its last seven in that role. Meanwhile, the Cubs are a horrible 2-15 (-11.9) their last 17 as road underdogs in the +150 to +75 range.

The Padres are also a healthy 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the Cubs. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. *10 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. While they can no longer catch Texas, the Angels are still mathematically alive for the Wildcard. Although their chances aren't very good, I still expect them to give us a huge effort today.

Torii Hunter noted: "It hurts that we can't win the division title. That's understandable. But Texas played so well, we just couldn't catch up to those guys. Now we still have a shot at the wild card, and we still have some life left. All you want is just to have a chance to get in. We still have a shot..."

Moscoso has been superb at home but has struggled on the road. He's 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA in eight road starts, the A's going 2-6.

On the other hand, Williams is 2-0 with a spectacular 1.20 ERA and 0.533 WHIP here at home. Overall, he's 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.164 WHIP.

The Angels are 18-7 (+8.7) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range and I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on Chicago and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game was high-scoring, an 8-4 victory for the Sox. I won't be surprised if we don't even see half that many this evening though.

Since being recalled from Triple-A Columbus on Aug. 30th, Jeanmar Gomez is a perfect 4-0 with a superb 1.88 ERA. He faced the Sox a couple of weeks ago, at Chicago, allowing two runs through six complete innings. He didn't walk a batter and outpitched Buehrle in that one.

Gomez has allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts and has a 2.31 ERA as a starter here at home.

Humber wasn't so good at KC last time out. However, he's still 6-2 with a stellar 3.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road this season, averaging a healthy 6 2/3 innings per road start. The UNDER is 8-4 when he's pitched on the road and 14-7-3 overall.

Note that before the loss at KC, Humber had been 1-0 with an outstanding 1.26 ERA in his previous three starts, allowing just two earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.

Humber should be happy to see the Indians. He's got a 2.45 ERA in two starts against Cleveland this season. He allowed two runs through six complete innings against the Tribe earlier this month, striking out seven and walking none.

Excluding 'pushes,' the Sox have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 114-65 the last few seasons when the O/U line was either nine or 9.5, including 50-26 on the road. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Indians have seen the UNDER go 36-17 when favored at home with a line of -125 or less.

With some important bats not in the lineups, I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. *10 (Blue Chip)

I'm playing on FLORIDA. These teams have split the first two games of this series. The Marlins won 6-5 on Monday. The Braves returned the favor with a 4-0 victory yesterday. With the Braves fighting to hold off the Cardinals in the Wildcard race and the Marlins "playing out the string," many bettors will be looking to back Atlanta here. That's given us an excellent price on a Florida team which should have an edge on the mound and which should be determined to beat the Braves in the final game between the division rivals at Sun Life Stadium. (Marlins move to a new stadium next year.)

Vazquez gets the call for the Marlins and he's been absolutely superb for weeks now. Indeed, he's got a sensational 1.96 ERA in his last 16 starts. He's 4-0 his last four starts. During that stretch, he's allowed only one run in 29 innings! The Braves haven't seen him since 2005 either, so aren't all that familiar with what he's currently bringing to the table.

On the other hand, Lowe is 0-3 with a terrible 10.13 ERA in three September starts. He was quoted as saying: "This has been a long year. I mean, this is probably my worst year I've ever had. Right now you obviously feel discouraged and frustrated and all those things..."

Lowe has had success against the Marlins this season and I won't be surprised if he bounces back with a better effort. However, a "better effort" doesn't mean that he's going to be able to match Vazquez.

The last time that the Marlins got shutout (9/7) they responded by scoring 13 runs in their next game, earning a 13-4 victory. Catching Lowe at an all-time "low," I expect the bats to again "bounce back," closing out the all-time series here with a solid victory. *10

I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. Will the Yankees try and hurt the archrival Red Sox by not giving their best effort vs. the Rays? Not a chance! The Rays are no friends to the Yankees either. More importantly, with the teams playing seven of their final 10 games against each other, the Rays are still mathematically able to catch the Yanks for first in the division. Today, I expect the Yanks to quietly put any of that talk to rest, before it even gets started.

Manager Joe Girardi had this to say of this series and the upcoming week: "There's a lot of really good things that could happen for our club. We have an opportunity to accomplish what we set out to at the beginning of the year, the first step of it. This week could be very telling."

Admittedly, Davis has been fairly solid for the Rays recently and he's also had some success vs. the Yankees. That said, he got roughed up at Baltimore last time out (lost 6-2) and he has a poor 5.40 ERA and 1.519 WHIP on the road.

Nova is a perfect 11-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his last 14 starts and he dominated the Rays in his lone 2011 start against them. Including that victory, the Yanks are a lucrative 18-7 (+8.6) in his 25 starts this season.

The Rays bullpen has a 4.72 ERA and 1.411 WHIP on the road. The Yanks bullpen has a 2.97 ERA and 1.219 WHIP at home. The Yanks average 5.4 (5.8 at home) runs per game. The Rays average 4.3.

The Yanks are an outstanding 20-5 (+11.7) the last 25 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range and I look for them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Rays have certainly made things interesting. With yesterday's 9-1 victory, they're now only three back of

Boston. Playing at home and with their ace back on the mound, I expect Boston to bounce back today though.

While the Rays offense exploded yesterday, keep in mind that Tampa entered the series hitting .243 and averaging 4.3 runs. Boston, on the other hand, entered the series with a .280 average, scoring 5.4 runs per game. At home, those numbers were .297 and 5.7 runs per game.

Beckett is 5-1 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.061 WHIP in 12 home starts. The Red Sox are a profitable 10-2 (+5.6) in those games.

Beckett has also absolutely dominated the Rays. In fact, he has not allowed a run in 21 straight innings against them, dating to 2010.

This season, in two starts, he's limited Tampa to just two hits over 17 innings, while going 1-0. While both those games came at

Tropicana Field, Beckett is also 5-0 with a 2.47 ERA in his last eight outings against the Rays, here at Fenway.

Admittedly, Shields is also very capable and its true that he's been excellent lately. However, its also true that he is 1-8 with an awful 6.99 ERA in nine career starts at Fenway.

While the Rays haven't seen Beckett since July, the Red Sox just had a look at Shields on 9/11. Facing him for the second time in less than a week and this time catching him here at Fenway, I expect them to have more success. With Beckett "doing his thing," I expect that to be more than enough. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. As you're probably aware, the Tigers are on a red hot roll. They won again yesterday and have all but mathematically wrapped up the Central. They're now a commanding 12.5 games up on both the White Sox and Indians. While they'd certainly like to keep their current streak going, they don't "need" to. In fact, I expect it to come to an end right here, this afternoon.

For all their recent success, note that the Tigers are still a horrible 27-43 (-12.5) the last 70 times they played on the road when the line ranged from +100 to +125, going 8-14 (-5.3) their last 22 in that role.

The White Sox may be out of it - but they're still a team with a lot of pride. After getting blanked by Verlander yesterday, I expect them to be swinging the bats well against Penny today.

Penny is 3-4 with a horrific 6.89 ERA over his last nine starts and he's not getting any better. Over his last three starts, he's allowed 19 runs - 15 earned - over 15 innings. That's a 9.00 ERA to go along with a brutal 1.933 WHIP.

Penny just gave up eight runs - four earned - and 10 hits over five innings against these same Sox on Sept. 3 and avoided a loss only when the Tigers pulled off a stunning rally for a 9-8 victory.

While the Sox are very familiar with Penny, the Tigers will be getting their first look at Axelrod, who will be making his first start.

Its true that one never knows exactly what to expect from a pitcher making his starting debut. However, they often fare better than many bettors imagine. In Axelrod's case, he was 6-1 with a superb 2.27 ERA in 15 starts for Triple-A Charlotte before being recalled last week. So, he's currently in excellent form and should have plenty of confidence.

He was quoted as saying: "I'm definitely excited to get that chance. I want to go out there and see what I can do. It should be great."

I expect the Sox to provide the rookie with plenty of support as they bounce back and close out the homestand with a much needed victory. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on Oakland and LA to finish UNDER the total. I won with the A's last night. Tonight, however, with a pair of starting pitchers in excellent current form, I feel the value lies with the total.

I've won with the A's in several of Moscoso's home starts now. Last time that he pitched, I successfully played on both the A's the "under 8.5." Moscosco came through for me with flying colors. Indeed, he only allowed two hits through 8 2/3 shutout innings. The A's won 7-0.

Including that gem, Moscoso is now 6-2 with a superb 2.26 ERA and 0.927 WHIP in 10 starts here this season, the A's going 8-2.

Moscoso's lone start against the Angels came back in the spring, at LA. He tossed six shutout innings, en route to a 6-0 A's victory.

While I expect another strong effort from Moscoso, I also expect the Angels to receive solid pitching. Last time out, Williams allowed just one run on one hit, through eight innings. The Angels won 3-1. That brings him to 3-0 with an outstanding 2.45 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in three starts.

Yesterday's game finished above the total. However, even including that result, the UNDER is an extremely profitable 45-16-4 when the Angels have played in the month of September the past few seasons. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Its true that the Angels have a lot more to play for then the A's. However, that doesn't mean that the A's don't want to beat them.

Oakland manager Bob Melvin isn't planning on loading up his lineup with rookies, as he wants to win these gams. He said: "You want to evaluate talent going forward, but you've got to put forth your best lineup and continue to play your veterans. Pretty much everybody we play is a contender - the Rangers, Angels and Tigers."

The Angels have been playing well but are off a tough 6-5 loss to the Yankees, one that saw them go 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. That type of defeat can often be a bit deflating. LA manager Mike Scioscia noted: "We shot ourselves in the foot all day on the offensive side. You need to pick up those runs and keep pressure on them. We just didn

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. This has suddenly become an important game for the Brewers. Suddenly, their lead over the Cardinals is down to six games - they were 10.5 games ahead on Monday. They need to start winning to finish off those pesky Cards once and for all. Perhaps more importantly, the Brewers need a victory here, as they know their path to the World Series will surely involve facing these same Phillies. Having lost all three games, from a mental standpoint, they'd badly like to avoid the 4-game sweep, here at Milwaukee. That's particularly true with their ace on the mound, facing the Phillies 4th (or 5th) starter.

True, Worley has been exceptional - no ordinary, 4th or 5th starter. However, he's still not ready to be put in the same class as Halladay, Lee or Hamels. In fact, the Phillies may put Oswalt ahead of Worley when it comes time to choosing a 4th starter for their playoff rotation - although personally, I'd go with Worley. Either way, he's not their ace - which is what Gallardo is for their Brewers.

Worley's road stats (5-1 record, 3.97 ERA and 1.39 WHIP) are certainly solid but they aren't as good as Gallardo's 9-2 record, 3.18 ERA and 1.191 WHIP here at home.

Gallardo also has an outstanding 0.84 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies, including a 2-1 victory in his lone home start against them. That came way back in 2007 and saw him allow only four hits and one run through 6 2/3 innings. He had seven K's and one walk.

The Brewers are 29-8 when playing at home w/ an O/U line of eight or 8.5 and I look for them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Mariners have now won two games in a row. They won with pitching on Thursday, earning a 4-1 victory. Last night, the offense caught fire; the M's belted out 15 hits, even getting a home run from Ichiro, who went four for five overall. Miguel Olivo and Justin Smoak each had three hit performances for the Mariners. In fact, Olivo was only a single short of the cycle. He doubled, homered then tripled in his first three at-bats. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "I'm very happy. Me and Smoak and Ichiro today, we put things together." With the offense suddenly catching fire and with their star rookie on the mound, I expect the M's to make it three in a row here.

Pineda hasn't gotten much run support of late but is off three straight quality starts, recording a stingy 0.944 WHIP in those games. During that three game stretch, he has 20 K's in 18 innings, with only three walks and one home run allowed. For the season, he's 5-3 with a stellar 2.87 ERA and 1.044 WHIP here at Safeco. He gets a chance to earn his 10th victory tonight and this should be the perfect opponent to do it against. Pineda dominated KC back in the spring, allowing three hits in six innings, en route to a 3-2 victory.

Run support shouldn't be such a problem for Pineda here. Not only did the M's bats come to life last night, but Paulino has a horrible 6.35 ERA and 1.824 WHIP his last three starts.

The Royals are 12-27 (-10.2) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. On the other hand, the M's are 8-5 (+1.4) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Pineda getting the better of Paulino, I expect them to pad those stats tonight. *10

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Its true that the Cardinals probably aren't going to make the playoffs. They'd need an epic collapse by the Brewers (or these same Braves) for that to happen. However, its also true that the Cards are still mathematically alive - which means that they aren't about to roll over and quit. The Cards, who had yesterday off, have won nine of 13 to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They took two of three against the Brewers and watched Milwaukee lose again yesterday. They know the Brewers are up against Halladay today, too.

Albert Pujols, batting better than .400 over his last eight games, had this to say: "We're just looking to win as many games as we can and see where we're at on the 28th of September. Just try to give our best, go out and play hard every day and try to win series. Hopefully we can get a little streak going here."

While the Braves do have the better record overall, they're 0-4 here at St. Louis this season.

While the Cards had a day off yesterday, the Braves were forced to play a double-header. Now, playing their 11th game in the past 10 days, the Braves have a rookie pitcher on the mound, one who only lasted five innings last time out. In three career starts, Delgado is 0-1 with a 4.20 ERA.

On the other hand, Jackson is 2-0 with an extremely stingy 1.80 ERA over his last three starts. Last time out, Jackson had eight 8 K's and 2 walks. Delgado had half as many K's (4) but walked three.

Jackson, who has allowed two earned runs or less in six of eight starts as a Cardinal, (3 or fewer runs in 7 of those starts) has a 3-0 record with an outstanding 2.30 ERA at Busch Stadium this year. Overall, he's 5-3 with an excellent 2.63 ERA in 14 "home" starts.

This game should be more important for the Cards. They've got the schedule and venue in their favor. They should have a fresher bullpen as well as an edge in the starting pitching department. All things considered, I feel getting the Cards as a very modest favorite is more than fair. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I lost with the A's yesterday. They're playing to avoid the sweep here this afternoon though and with Moscoso on the mound, I'm coming right back with them today.

Moscoso has quietly been excellent at home and we've won with him a few times here. He's 5-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in nine starts here. The A's were a profitable 7-2 (+4.6) in those games. Last start here, he allowed two runs in seven innings but only one of those was earned. He gave up just five hits and had six K's with just one walk. In his previous start here, he allowed one run on three hits, through eight innings. In that one, he had seven K's with only one walk. He'll have the advantage of starting against KC for the first time.

Chen is capable but his numbers don't compare to the ones I just mentioned for Moscoso. In nine road starts, he's got a mediocre 4.30 ERA and 1.357 WHIP.

The A's had won four straight before this series. The last thing they want to have happen is to get swept by the lowly Royals. Behind another quality home effort from Moscosco, I expect them to bounce back here. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. After the Rays won Monday's opener, the Rangers crushed them by a score of 8-0 yesterday. The Rays had previously won three straight though and with Price on the mound, I look for them to bounce back and close out the series with a victory.

Price has a superb 2.05 ERA and 0.909 WHIP his last three starts. Over that stretch, he's recorded a whopping 31 K's in 22 innings, walking just seven. He also didn't allow a single home run. He's only 12-12 on the season but could easily be better, as evidenced by his 3.41 ERA and 1.093 WHIP.

Price may be winless against Texas but he was very solid in his lone 2011 start in this series. In that 6/1 game, he allowed three runs only five hits, through eight complete innings. He had eight 8 K's and issued only one walk. He didn't get any run support that day but I expect him to get some this afternoon.

Holland has also pitched well lately. His seasonal stats (4.13 ERA and 1.387 WHIP) are only mediocre though and he's had real trouble with the Rays - arguably more so than Price has had with the Rangers. In four starts vs Tampa, he's got an awful 7.29 ERA and 1.714 WHIP.

Yesterday notwithstanding, the Rays have had plenty of success vs left-handed starters. I expect Price to be the better southpaw here and for TB to close out the series with a win. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Royals grabbed yesterday's opener. They're now an awful 25-44 on the road. The A's, on the other hand, are still a somewhat respectable 38-31 at home. Prior to yesterday's loss, they'd won four straight. That winning streak started the last time that Gio Gonzalez started. With Gonzalez on the mound again this evening, I look for the A's to immediately bounce back and even things up.

Facing the Indians, a team he has always dominated, Gonzalez was superb last time out. He allowed only four hits through seven shutout innings. He got the "W" and the A's won 7-0. After a small rare off stretch, Gonzalez has returned to the way he was pitching for most of the season. In other words, he's been extremely sharp. In his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA.

While his recent gem vs. the Indians was on the road, Gonzalez is also nearly always tough at home. I backed the A's in his last start here and watched him limit the Jays to one run on four hits, through eight complete innings. He had nine K's and issued only one walk. The A's won 5-1.

Including the win over the Jays, Gonzalez is 8-4 with a stingy 2.37 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 14 home starts. Gonzalez, already 2-0 vs. the Royals this season, should get some run support here.

Duffy gave up five runs in five innings in his last start. That gives him an ugly 6.06 ERA his last three starts. For the season, Duffy has an awful 5.88 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in 10 road starts. The Royals were 3-7 in those games.

Yesterday's victory came when the Royals were facing a right-handed started. Today, however, they'll be matched up against a southpaw. Note that KC is a dismal 44-83 (-33.9) against southpaw starters the past few seasons.

Even with yesterday's loss the A's are still 16-8 the last 24 times they faced the Royals, going 8-4 when hosting KC. With Gonzalez getting the better of Duffy, I expect them to pad those stats here. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I won with the Cubs yesterday. Off that momentum-building victory and with Garza on the mound at home, I'm coming right back with them again today.

Garza hasn't always gotten much run support but he's been outstanding here at Wrigley. In 14 home starts, Garza has a terrific 2.76 ERA and 1.183 WHIP, averaging 6.5 innings. In those 91 1/3 home innings, he's got a very impressive 101 K's with only 29 walks.

Garza is also currently in excellent form. He beat the Giants last time out, improving to 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA his last three starts. He's got 20 K's vs. only five walks in those games, allowing just one home run.

Willis looked pretty good in his first few starts but has looked shaky of late. Really, he's been quite fortunate not to have been hurt worse than he has. Last time out, he walked five batters, while also allowing five hits, in 6 2/3 innings. Yet, still only gave up three runs. Before that, he also walked five batters, this time allowing six hits, still only giving up three runs. Ten walks in two games is NOT good though and that type of control, or lack thereof, is likely to catch up with him soon. In fact, it already has. Willis is winless in four road starts (team was 0-4) and is 0-4 overall with the team going 3-7.

With yesterday's victory, the Cubs are now a (surprisingly) profitable 9-3 (+5) the last 12 times that they were home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Garza getting the better of Willis, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Both teams won yesterday. Both teams have starters that have enjoyed success against today's opponent. The Rays are playing at home though and their starter has been getting it done much longer (this season) than the Rangers' starter. That said, I expect Tampa to start things off with a win.

Feldman pitched very well last time out, shutting out these same Rays through six innings. That was his first start of the entire season though and now he'll face the same team, at its home field. Having scored 14 runs over the weekend, the Rays bats finally appear to be waking up and are in better form than they were when Feldman faced them last week.

Unlike Feldman, Shields has been getting it done all season. In 28 starts, he's got a terrific 2.84 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. The Rays are a profitable 18-10 in those games. Last time out, he blanked these same Rangers - unlike Feldman, he lasted eight innings instead of six. In his previous start, he tossed a complete game and held Toronto to one run, recording 12 K's and walking one. In fact, he's got 26 K's vs. only three walks his last three starts and leads the majors in complete games. At home, his ERA dips to 2.59. He's got 109 K's in 107 innings here.

Shields was quoted as saying: "I'm going to go out there and try and do what I did last time. I pitched pretty well last time in Texas, and we're at home here now so I hope I can do the same..

Texas manager Ron Washington had this to say of Shields' last start: "After the first inning when we didn't get him, he started pitching. He did a great job

I'm playing on Chicago and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been very high scoring. That doesn't mean we necessarily need to expect more fireworks tonight though. In fact, I look for the starting pitchers to steal the show.

Buehrle continues to get it done. Last time out, he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings, en route to a 3-0 victory. He allowed just four hits. For the season, he's 11-6 with a very solid 3.05 ERA and 1.215 WHIP. The UNDER is a profitable 14-8-4 in his starts.

Buehrle is 18-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP vs. Detroit. He last faced the Tigers in July and allowed two runs in six innings. Both were unearned.

Admittedly, Scherzer's numbers aren't quite as good as Buehrle's. For the season, he's got a 4.03 ERA and 1.321 WHIP at home. However, he's still seen the UNDER go a lucrative 9-6 in his 15 home starts. He's got 70 K's vs. 24 walks in those games, averaging a solid six innings per outing. Two of his last three starts have finished with five or fewer combined runs.

Scherzer has also pitched very well vs. Chicago. In fact, he's got a 2.61 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in seven starts against the Sox. In three 2011 starts against Chicago, he's allowed only four combined runs in 22 innings. All three games finished below the total. They had scores of 3-0, 5-0 and 2-1.

The White Sox, who have now dropped three straight, have seen the UNDER go 31-18-2 the past few seasons, when off three or more consecutive losses. That includes a profitable 13-5-1 UNDER mark their last 19 in that situation. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cubs lost a heartbreaker yesterday. Leading 5-3, the gave up four runs in the 9th inning, losing 7-5. While those losses can sometimes be difficult to deal with, the Cubs have a starter in much better current form here. That said, I look for them to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

After a slow start, Wells has been superb in recent weeks. Indeed, he's 5-1 over his last eight starts. During that stretch, he's held opposing hitters to a .214 average while recording a solid 3.42 ERA.

Wells is showing no signs of slowing down either. In fact, he's only getting better. Two starts ago, in his most recent start here at Wrigley, he limited Atlanta to one run on just two hits, through 6 2/3 innings. Wells got the "W" and the Cubs won 3-2. He had six K's and and two walks. While that was extremely impressive, he was even better last time out. Indeed, all he did was outpitch Lincecum, tossing a complete-game 2-hit shutout. He had seven K's with only one walk and the Cubs won 7-0.

Morton, on the other hand, has lost back-to-back starts, while recording an awful 8.38 ERA. Last time out, facing lowly Houston, he walked four batters and allowed six hits, giving up four runs in just 5 2/3 innings. In his previous start, he gave up nine hits in only 4 1/3 innings, giving up five runs.

Even with yesterday's victory, the Pirates are still a dismal 36-74 the past few seasons, when facing a team with a losing record after the break. The Pirates head home after this and could easily be caught looking ahead to getting back. They've played every day since Aug. 19th and they played two games on one of those days. They should have had a day off but had to play a single game vs. the Dodgers on 9/1, which interrupted their current 10-game road trip. They play again tomorrow, vs. Houston.

All things considered, I feel the price is more than fair. With Wells continuing his recent strong pitching, I expect Chicago to avoid the sweep. *10

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Rangers embarrassed the Red Sox in yesterday's opener. I expect Boston to return the favor here though. While he doesn't have the wins to show for it, Bedard has pitched well of late. He's got a 2.81 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's got a very solid 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, striking out 113 in 117 innings, walking only 39.

Lewis has a mediocre 4.19 ERA on the season. Perhaps more importantly, over his last two starts, he's got an awful 9.00 ERA. Last time out, he allowed five runs in six innings. In his previous start, which came vs these same Red Sox, Lewis allowed seven runs in six innings. For the season, he's allowed a whopping 31 home runs. (Bedard has allowed 13.)

Bedard is 4-4 with a solid 3.42 ERA vs. Texas. Including the recent poor outing, Lewis is 2-2 with an ugly 4.93 ERA vs. Boston.

Texas is 20-18 (+0.2) in day games this season. On the other hand, Boston is 29-11 (+12.4) in day games.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Red Sox are still 40-19 against teams with a winning record. I expect them to bounce back and even the series. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. Obviously, this is a huge game for both teams. Its bigger for the defending champs though, as they're the ones behind in the race. Entering tonight's action, the Giants are six games behind Arizona in the NL West race, with 25 games to go. While the Diamondbacks are red hot, with Cain on the mound, I expect the Giants to grab tonight's opener.

I played on the Giants on Wednesday and watched Madison Bumgarner deliver a gem to lead his team to a 4-0 victory over the Cubs. That was a critical win and gave them some positive momentum for this all important series.

While he hasn't always received much run support, Cain has an excellent 2.87 ERA and 1.064 WHIP on the season. In 14 home starts, he's got a 2.93 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. He's averaged seven complete innings in those starts, recording 80 K's to just 25 walks. Over that entire 98 1/3 innings, he only allowed four home runs.

Lately, he's been very sharp. Indeed, in his last three starts, Cain is 1-0 with an outstanding 1.96 ERA and extremely stingy 0.783 WHIP. Over that stretch, he has recorded 20 K's in 23 innings, walking only two.

Saunders also pitched very well last time out - but his overall numbers don't compare favorably vs. Cain's. He's still got a 4.22 ERA his last three starts and is 9-11 with a 3.87 ERA on the season. Solid - but not dominant like Cain.

Saunders is 0-2 with a poor 5.27 ERA and a terrible 1.829 WHIP vs. the Giants. Cain, on the other hand, is 9-5 with a solid 3.52 ERA and 1.172 WHIP vs. Arizona.

Both bullpens have been solid but the Giants' relievers' 2.40 ERA and 1.083 WHIP at home is superior to Arizona's 3.02 ERA and 1.391 WHIP on the road.

In addition to being 18-6 the last 24 times that they were a host in this series, the Giants are 37-16 (+11.1) the last 53 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. That includes a 13-4 (+6.8) mark their last 17 in that role. With Cain getting the better of Saunders, I expect the champs to improve on those stats tonight. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Cardinals have taken each of the first two games of this series, making things somewhat more interesting in the Central. The Brewers are still a healthy 8.5 games ahead in the race though and they're still a remarkable 50-18 here at home. With their ace on the mound, I fully expect them to bounce back and avoid getting swept here for the first time in more than a year.

For the season, Gallardo checks in with an impressive 15-8 record to go along with a very solid 3.37 ERA. Its here at home where Gallardo has been really dominant though. In 13 starts here, Gallardo is 9-1 with an excellent 2.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, allowing only four home runs. The Brewers are a lucrative 11-2 (+7.8) in those games.

The Brewers' ace has been particularly sharp of late. In fact, he's 2-0 (Milwaukee is 3-0) in his last three starts with a remarkable 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He's averaged 7 1/3 innings in those starts and has 25 K's in 22 innings, walking only four.

Gallardo is 1-1 with a stellar 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Cards in 2011; both those games were played in St. Louis. Surprisingly, he's had some trouble with the Cards here at Miller Park over the years. However, he wasn't dominating here the way he has this year and a big part of his trouble at beating the Cards here has been a lack of run support. Gallardo should fare better in that department here.

Brandon Dickson had a fairly solid K/W ratio down at Triple-A Memphis. However, he still had a losing record down there and his ERA was solid but not spectacular. Overall, he was 8-9 with a 3.73 ERA. Now, he takes on a determined Brewer lineup that (usually) hits the ball very well here.

While the line may seem steep, consider that the Brewers are 36-13 (+15.1) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range the past few seasons. Should the line be even higher than that, note that they're also 22-6 (+11.1) as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range the past few seasons, including 11-2 (+7.5) this season. On the other hand, the Cards are only 1-7 (-5.5) the last eight times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range.

With this being an afternoon game, note that the Cards are a money-burning 79-83 (-31.7) in afternoon games the past few years. This season, they're 19-23 (-9.8) when playing during the day. They've hit just .240 in those games. The Brewers are a far more respectable 26-19 (+4.9) when playing during the afternoon. I expect Gallardo to continue his recent roll and for the Brewers to return to their winning ways here at home. *10 (Top NL Central Play)

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Yankees in yesterday's series opener. However, that was with Sabathia matched up against Lackey. Today, the shoe is on the other foot, as Beckett will take on Hughes. Instead of the Yankees having a big edge on the mound, this time the Red Sox should enjoy a significant advantage.

Beckett is having an exceptional season. Last time out, he held a powerful Texas lineup to just one run on four hits, through six innings. Boston won 13-2. That's not all that surprising, given that the Red Sox are now 18-7 (+7.8) in his starts.

Beckett has a terrific 2.43 ERA overall and that number dips to an outstanding 1.95 ERA in his 11 home starts. The Sox were 9-2 in those games.

Beckett has been particularly dominant against the Yankees, too. Indeed, he's 3-0 with a remarkable 1.00 ERA in four starts against New York this season, with the Red Sox taking each of those games. He has limited the Yankees to a .170 average, while posting a 0.85 WHIP. For good measure, over 27 innings, he's got an impressive 30 strikeouts.

While Beckett is rolling, Hughes is struggling. Last time out, he allowed six runs in 2 2/3 innings. For the season, he's got an ugly 6.46 ERA and 1.529 WHIP.

Note that Hughes is also 1-3 with an awful 7.03 ERA and 1.813 WHIP vs. Boston. In this season's earlier start vs. the Red Sox, he gave up six runs in two innings.

Even with yesterday's setback, the Red Sox are still a profitable 39-17 (+18.9) when facing a team with a winning record. With Beckett "doing his thing," I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Indians the last time that Jimenez took the mound. The former Colorado ace finally gave the Indians what they needed and expected from him, delivering a gem. In seven complete innings, he allowed one run while recording 10 K's. The Indians won that one and it seemingly helped provide them with a badly needed spark. With another victory yesterday, they're now 4-1 their last five games. With Jimenez back on the mound, I expect them to keep it rolling for another day.

As I mentioned in the writeup when he last pitched, while he'd struggled on the road, Jimenez was also sharp in his previous home start. In fact, he's now 2-0 with an extremely stingy 0.60 ERA at Progressive Field. In 15 innings here, he has 16 K's.

While Jimenez was dominant last time out, Harden was terrible. He allowed 10 hits and six runs in just 4 1/3 innings.

While the Indians have seen plenty of Harden over the years, Jimenez will have the advantage of starting against Oakland for the first time.

With yesterday's victory, the Indians have now won five of the last six meetings against the A's. Overall, Oakland is now an awful 25-45 on the road.

Oakland manager Bob Melvin had this to say of his team's recent effort: "We've basically done nothing. We'll search for those answers, but I don't have one right now."

On the other hand, Cleveland manager Manny Acta is far more "up beat." He was quoted as saying: "I feel like we've got a couple of streaks left in us. There's a month to go. The pitching is there. You get good pitching, you're in every game. It's someone different every day, getting big hits, pitching well. The young guys are coming up and getting it done."

The Indians were slight underdogs for yesterday's game and still won 6-2. Now, listed as "modestly" priced favorites, they're in one of their best roles. Indeed, we find the Indians at a profitable 16-4 (+10.4) the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Jimenez building off his recent victory, I look for the Indians to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. I only back the Yankees a small handful of times each season and I generally do fairly well when I do. I feel that tonight's series opener at Fenway will be a good spot to do so.

While both teams have now won two in a row, the Red Sox come in as the slightly "hotter" team. They currently have a slight -1.5 game lead in the AL East race. The Yankees should have a significant edge on the mound though.

I watched all four of his Sabathia's starts against the Red Sox this season, beginning with a winning "under" ticket back on 4/10, a 4-0 Boston victory. So, I'm well aware that Sabathia has really struggled in those games and is 0-4. That said and with all due respect to the Red Sox, I expect Sabathia to be at his best here.

Keep in mind that Sabathia is a remarkable 17-3 with an extremely stingy 2.40 ERA against all other teams besides Boston. Also, remember that Sabathia was 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight starts against the Red Sox the previous two seasons. So, its not like he hasn't had success against them in the past.

Sabathia said this of the Red Sox: "They have a good lineup ... they wear on you." However, he also finished off that statement by saying: "When I'm right, I can beat anybody."

Sabathia has seen three of this season's four starts come against Beckett. His most recent came against Lackey. Sabathia struggled in that 8/6 game and Lackey got the "W". That game notwithstanding, Lackey has really struggled for most of this season and his numbers don't even come close to comparing to Sabathia's.

In 22 starts, Lackey has a 5.98 ERA and 1.546 WHIP. AT home, his ERA climbs to 6.16. He's only been marginally better recently, too. Over his last three starts, he's got a 5.12 ERA and 1.603 WHIP.

Lackey averages less than six innings per start. Sabathia averages greater than seven. Sabathia has 100 more K's than Lackey, yet has allowed four fewer home runs. The Red Sox are 7-6 (-2.5) in Lackey's home starts. The Yankees are 10-4 (+4.3) in Sabathia's road starts.

I expect a highly motivated "team effort" from the Yankees and for Sabathia, who has 23 K's and two walks in his last three starts, to finally get himself a "W" in this year's rivalry. *10

I'm playing on TORONTO. Its certainly been a disappointing homestand for the Jays. Off four straight losses, they're now just 1-5. This is a big game for the Jays and I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed victory.

I call this a "big game" for the Jays for a few reasons. For starters, they've lost four straight, so need to get back on track. Also, this is the final game of the homestand and they'd at least like to close it on a high note. Additionally, yesterday's loss was of the "embarrassing" variety, as they were blown out by a score of 12-0.

Having Ricky Romero on the mound should give the Jays an excellent shot at a victory. Romero didn't factor in the decision but the Jays still won his last start. Romero is now 2-0 with a superb 1.64 ERA his last three starts, all three of them Toronto victories. For the season, he's got an excellent 2.83 ERA and 1.144 WHIP, averaging seven innings per start.

Davis has also pitched well recently, just not as well as Romero. His overall numbers don't compare favorably to Romero's overall numbers either. Davis has particularly struggled on the road. In 11 road starts, he's got a 4.92 ERA and 1.448 WHIP.

While the Rays are 4-9 the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, the Jays are a profitable 21-9 (+6.4) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.

These same two starters went head-to-head against each other here back in May. Davis was ok. But Romero was much better. The Jays won that one and I look for them to "do it again" here. *10

I'm playing on Texas and LA to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring, each producing a minimum of a dozen combined runs. I expect the pitchers to steal the show tonight though.

At 15-6 with a 2.03 ERA, Weaver is having an exceptional season. That includes a 2-1 mark with a 1.86 ERA in four games against the Rangers this season. Going back a bit further finds him at 4-1 with a outstanding 1.99 ERA in his last seven starts against Texas.

Lewis got roughed up last time out. He's still got a 3.72 ERA his last three starts, recording 17 K's with four walks. Note that prior to his bad outing vs. Boston, Lewis had a superb 1.74 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his previous three starts.

For those that find this type of thing interesting, note that Lewis has alternated 'overs' and 'unders' in his last nine straight starts, going O/U/O/U/O/U/O/U/O ...

More importantly, Lewis has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four vs. the Angels, three of those games producing eight or fewer combined runs. The most recent was 10 days ago, a 2-1 game at Anaheim where Lewis didn't allow a single earned run through seven innings.

Weaver opposed Lewis that day and allowed one run in seven innings. His previous start vs. the Rangers resulted in a 1-0 victory. He's seen the UNDER go 7-2 his last nine against Texas, including 4-0 the last four. I expect more of the same tonight. *10

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Time is running out on the Cardinals. Off a shutout loss and now playing the final game of a 7-game homestand, they absolutely need this one. I expect them to respond accordingly.

Lohse gets the call for the Cards. Its true that Lohse got roughed up last time out, while going for his 100th career win. However, he's 6-2 with a 3.50 ERA in his career against the Pirates and before his last outing, he'd been 2-0 (Cards were 3-0) with a 3.31 ERA in his previous three starts. Given a second chance at earning his 100th victory and with his team desperately needing a big effort, I expect Lohse to bounce back.

Karstens has pitched quite well recently for the Pirates. He left his last start with a cramp in his shoulder though and has been going through various tests ever since. While he claims to feel fine, its entirely possibly he'll feel differently against a normally potent St. Louis lineup, determined to bounce back after yesterday's shutout loss.

Including last Sunday's 6-2 win at Wrigley, the Cards are 5-2 (+3.2) the last seven times that they were coming off a shutout loss.

The Pirates haven't won back to back games (in the same series) here since the spring of 2007. I don't expect them to accomplish that feat today. Lohse wins #100 and the Cards bounce back with a big win. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I won with the Indians yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again today. Yesterday's victory was very important in a number of ways.

It got the Indians "back on track" and prevented them from falling further behind Detroit, which also won. It got them back to .500. It also got saw the fans come out in hordes to see the return of Jim Thome. Thome didn't get any hits but he did put an extra 10,000+ fans in the seats and all the extra energy seemingly helped "provide a much-needed spark" for the team.

The Tribe also got an outstanding outing from Jimenez, the big name pitcher they had picked up before the trade deadline, who had previously struggled. (If they want any hope at making a late run, they're going to need him to pitch like that the rest of the way.)

While catching Detroit certainly won't be easy (and is unlikely) these are all the types of things that can help a team start believing again and which can help provide positive momentum going forward. I expect that to be the case for Cleveland, at least for today.

Of course, it also helps when you've got a starter in much better current form. Last time out, Carmona allowed two runs (only one was earned) through six complete innings. He had six K's and walked only one batter. He now has a stellar 2.11 ERA his last three starts. He's averaged better than seven innings per start during that stretch.

Going back further and we find that Carmona has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and that he has pitched at least six innings in ALL of those games.

On the other hand, even though he was better last time out, Duffy is still 0-3 with a terrible 7.31 his last three starts. Going back further finds him at 2-4 with an ugly 6.38 ERA in his seven starts since the All-Star break.

I expect Carmona and the re-energized Indians to build off yesterday's win and make it two in a row. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians have lost six of their last seven and are in danger of falling too far behind the Tigers to stay in the race. Needless to say, this is a huge game and series. They simply can't afford to keep losing. Rather, they need to take advantage of a visit from one of the league's weaker teams. Having had a day off to "regroup," I expect the Indians to "come out swinging" today and for the entire team to be at their best.

For starters, the Indians have recently re-signed Jim Thome. While Thome may not even be in the lineup tonight, his signing and presence alone should help "boost morale."

The Indians should also have outfielder Shin-Soo back in the lineup. Shin-Soo noted: "We're still going. It's tough. But we

I'm playing on TEXAS. After the Rangers grabbed Monday's opener, the Red Sox responded by winning both Tuesday and Wednesday's games. Today, however, I fully expect the Rangers to bounce back and salvage the series split.

Ogando gets the call for Texas. He didn't get off to a great start this month but is coming off a very solid outing. Last time out, he allowed two runs through seven complete innings. He gave up six hits and had five K's with one walk.

For the season, Ogando is 12-5 with a stellar 3.30 ER and 1.12 WHIP. In 12 home starts, he's 7-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.178 WHIP. The Rangers are a profitable 9-3 (+3.9) in those games.

Miller was also solid last time out, as he allowed just one run through 5 1/3 innings. That was at Kansas City against the lowly Royals though and it was his first start since late July. He's still 5-1 with a poor 4.93 and a terrible 1.773 WHIP in nine starts overall. He's averaged only 5.1 innings per start and has only 28 K's and 27 walks. (Ogando has 107 K's and 37 walks.)

The Red Sox, who recently lost the finale of their West Coast road trip, are playing the final game of an 8-game road trip. This will mark their 14th road game in their past 17 overall and the Red Sox players figure to be looking forward to finally getting home.

Even with yesterday's embarrassing loss, the Rangers are still 17-8 the last 25 in this series. The Rangers are also a highly profitable 16-4 (+9.5) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Dodgers have won each of the first two games of this series. After a close win on Monday, they embarrassed St. Louis 13-2 yesterday. Determined for some payback and desperate for a victory, I expect the Cardinals to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

Kuroda has pitched well this season, particularly lately. He's still got a poor 9-14 record though with the Dodgers going just 10-15 (-7.4) in his starts. Lack of run support has often been an issue for him this season and I expect that to be the case again here.

Note that St. Louis featured right-handed starters in the first two games of this series. Today, the Cards are sending a southpaw starter to the mound. That's noteworthy as the Dodgers are only averaging 3.5 runs in games vs. left-handers, down from their average against right-handers.

Although no longer perfect here, Garcia is still 6-3 with a superb 2.06 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 11 home starts. The Cards are a profitable 8-3 (+3) in those games. After a rare tough stretch, he delivered a quality start last time out.

While that certainly wasn't the case yesterday, the Cards still boast the better hitting lineup. Falling further and further behind the Brewers, they also "need" this game more than the Dodgers.

The Dodgers haven't swept a 3-game series here since the early 1990s. I don't expect it to happen this year either. *10

I'm playing on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS. The Giants have taken five of the last six meetings with the Padres. With Matt Cain on the mound, I expect the champs to have the advantage again tonight.

With a 2.86 ERA and 1.087 WHIP through 26 starts, Cain has been tough all season. With a 1.23 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his last three starts, he's been downright dominant in August. Last time out, Cain allowed limited the Braves to just one unearned run on only five hits. In eight complete innings, he had an impressive nine K's and only walked one batter.

Latos has pitched better than his 6-12 record indicates. However, he still hasn't been nearly as good as Cain. Also, his 4.10 ERA away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park isn't very good.

Note that these same two pitchers squared off against each other, at San Diego, on 7/17. Cain allowed one earned run and three hits, striking out nine. Latos allowed three earned runs on seven hits, striking out five. The Giants won 4-3.

True, the Padres have been winning a few games lately. They're still "playing out the string" though. Meanwhile, with Arizona losing lately, the Giants know they need to seize the moment and step up and win some games. They're a solid 46-29 (+6.6) the last 75 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Cain getting the better of Latos once again, I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. *10