I'm playing on TEXAS. The Red Sox won again yesterday while the Rangers were embarrassed 10-0 by the White Sox. This is an entirely different series though and I look for the Rangers to bounce back and begin the new week with a victory.

The Rangers may have been blanked at Chicago yesterday. They're back home now though and they average a whopping six runs per game here to go along with an impressive .294 team batting average. Not surprisingly, they're 39-23 here on the season.

Prior to yesterday's game, it was the Rangers which were swinging better bats. The Rangers entered Sunday's game averaging 5.1 runs per game over their previous seven games, hitting .289. On the other hand, prior to yesterday's victory, the Red Sox were hitting only .212 in their previous seven games, averaging a mere 3.3 runs during that stretch.

As for yesterday's shutout, lets not forget that the last time that the Rangers scored zero runs (July 24th) they responded by scoring 20 in their next game! Including that result, they're 5-0 the last five times that they were off a shutout loss and 16-9 the last 25.

Wilson gets the call. After a sub-par July, he's been superb lately. Indeed, he's 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA his last two starts and 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA his last three. For the season, he's 12-5 with an extremely solid 3.20 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, to go along with an impressive 159 K's. He's 5-1 in 12 home starts, the Rangers going 8-4 in those games.

The Red Sox know what Wilson is all about. In four starts against Boston, Wilson has gone 3-0 with a superb 1.35 ERA and 1.012 WHIP. The Rangers won all four of those games. Each victory came by multiple runs. (Here, Wilson will get to face a Boston team missing some of its big guns.)

Bedard has also been solid since coming over to Boston. Keep in mind that he missed nearly all of July with a knee injury though and that he's still 4-8 on the season. Also, he got rocked for five runs (3 earned) in five innings, taking a 6-4 loss, in his last start here at Texas.

Including Wilson's victories, the Rangers are 16-6 (+12.4) against the Red Sox the past few seasons, including a commanding 10-2 (+9.2) here at Texas. Behind another solid effort from Wilson, I expect the Rangers, 43-20 (+14.6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range during that stretch, to bounce back from yesterday's debacle and to continue their dominance in this series. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I won with the A's yesterday and I'm coming right back with them this afternoon. The A's have now won back to back games and have victories in four of their last five games. The Jays, on the other hand, are off back to back losses. Playing the final game of a West Coast road trip, they may already have the return trip home to Toronto on the back of their minds.

After scoring a pile of runs at Seattle, the Toronto bats have suddenly gone silent. The Jays scored zero runs in Friday's game. Last night, playing without Jose Bautista in the lineup, they managed only one run. Even with Bautista in the lineup, the Jays rarely hit very well during the afternoon. As a team, they're hitting only .235 in day games. Not surprisingly, they're just 18-28 (-10.4) when playing during the afternoon.

While Bautista (currently questionable) may return, the Jays also lost Adam Lind to a wrist injury, after he got hit by a pitch in the first inning last night. Regardless of whether or not Bautista and/or Lind are in the lineup, I don't expect the jays to hit too well here.

I won with the A's in Guillermo Moscosco's last start. Moscosco allowed two earned runs through six innings, en route to earning an 8-4 victory. In his previous start, Moscosco defeated these same Blue Jays, earning a 10-3 victory. Moscosco allowed just three hits and one earned run, through six innings. He had six K's and two walks. That translates to a superb 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP.

Moscosco has been better at home, too. He's 4-1 with a solid 3.15 ERA (1.15 WHIP) in seven starts at O.co Coliseum. Moscosco has allowed three runs or less in five of those seven games. Most important, the A's were a lucrative 6-1.

Meanwhile, the Jays will have a first time starter on the mound, as rookie Luis Perez has been moved from the bullpen to get a spot start. The A's have seen Perez as a reliever though and rocked him for five runs - two earned - in just 2 1/3 innings. Perez issued three walks. So, even though he's a rookie making his first start, the A's already know what he's all about.

With Friday's victory, the A's are 5-3 their last eight games against southpaw starters. With yesterday's victory, the A's are also now 9-2 (+6.4) the last 11 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. I feel the current price is very reasonable and I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. After the Jays grabbed Thursday's opener by a 7-0 score, the A's responded with a shutout victory (2-0) of their own yesterday. That makes it three wins in four games for the A's and it brings them to a somewhat respectable 34-29 here at home. The A's have gone 8-5 (+1.1) when Gio Gonzalez has pitched here and I expect them to follow up yesterday's win with another victory here.

Gonzalez has admittedly not been his very best recently. He's still 7-4 with a superb 2.48 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 13 starts here though, recording an impressive 87 K's in 83 1/3 home innings.

Alvarez is making just his third start and he's got a 5.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP thus far. I had good seats for his most recent start (at Safeco on 8/15. I was able to see that he did have "good stuff" but that he was also very capable of making mistakes, like most inexperienced pitchers are. He ended up giving up six hits and four runs in just five innings of that game. He didn't factor in the decision but the Jays lost.

While they do tend to make mistakes, one thing inexperienced pitchers like Alvarez often have going for them is that opposing hitters will be facing them for the first time. Unfortunately, for Alvarez, he won't have that advantage here. That's because these same two starting pitchers just squared off against each other on 8/10, at Toronto, in Alvarez's debut. Neither was that great in that one but the Jays won.

Now, we're at Oakland though. Not only are the A's much better at home, Gonzalez is far more comfortable here. Of course, the Jays will have just seen Gonzalez, too. However, as a more experienced starter and a proven winner here, he has other advantages that Alvarez may not necessarily have yet. Keep in mind that even with a couple of recent losses, the A's remain an outstanding and profitable 14-6 in Gonzalez's last 20 starts here.

Gonzalez's lone home start vs. the Jays came almost exactly one year ago, on 8/18/2010. Gonzalez allowed just one run on only two hits, through seven innings of that game. He didn't factor in the decision but the A's won 5-4. I expect Gonzalez to come through once again as the A's improve to 14-7 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. *10

I'm playing on HOUSTON on the Run-Line (+1.5 Runs.) With the Giants listed as mid-sized favorites on the moneyline, we're able to get quite a reasonable price on the Astros on the run-line. I believe that's providing us with excellent value.

The Giants are off a tough 1-0 loss against Atlanta yesterday. That was a very big series for them and watching their ace pitch very well, only to lose, figures to take a toll.

Rodriguez has a very solid 3.50 ERA and 1.288 WHIP on the season. His 117 K's to 47 walks is also very solid. His career stats at home are significantly better than his road stats.

Rodriguez did get roughed up by the Giants in 2006, his first start against them. However, he's only made two starts against them since that time (both last year) and he delivered quality efforts in each of those, most recently allowing only two unearned runs on just four hits, en route to earning a 7-5 Houston win.

Vogelsong has been dominant at home. Although still solid (3.46 ERA, 1.365 WHIP) his road numbers aren't nearly as good.

The Astros are off three straight 1-run games and they won the last two of them. Meanwhile, the Giants have now seen three of their last four decided by a single run. Houston is finally playing a bit better and here we're getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with against a SF lineup which has scored three or fewer runs in five of its last eight games. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. These teams both had an off day yesterday. If recent history is any indication, that should favor the visiting Mariners. The M's are a surprisingly solid 27-24 (+4.8) when playing with a day off the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Rays are an awful 16-24 (-14.4) when playing with a day off. That's not why I'm playing on Seattle here though. Rather, its because they've started to swing the bats better and because they've got their ace on the mound.

I was happy to see the M's get shutdown by their former teammate (Brandon Morrow) on Wednesday, as I had the "under" in that game. However, prior to that game, they'd been swinging the bats very well. In fact, they entered that game averaging 5.3 runs per game over their previous seven games, while hitting a very healthy .301. They're getting solid production from some of their young hitters and the team seems to be relaxed and playing better again.

While the M's have been hitting better lately, their ace has also been hitting his stride. Last time out, he beat Beckett and the Bosox. Prior to that, in his most recent road start, he limited the Angels to two runs on only four hits through eight innings. While he got no run support, the fact that he had 12 K's without walking a batter shows what kind of stuff he had. For the season, he's got a 3.06 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 15 road starts, averaging better than seven innings in those outings. In 106 road innings, he has 104 K's with only 29 walks.

Hernandez should be happy to see the Rays, as he's dominated them over his career. In eight starts vs. Tampa, Hernandez is 3-1 with a superb 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP. The M's were a highly profitable 7-1 (+5.4) in those games, including an 8-2 victory back in June. "King Felix" recorded 11 K's in that one, allowing only one run on five hits, through seven innings.

On the other hand, Davis gave up five runs in his lone start vs. the M's this season. While the Rays lost 9-6, he was fortunate to avoid factoring in the decision. Davis did lose his lone 2010 start vs. Seattle though and has a poor 4.82 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Seattle overall. Perhaps more importantly, Davis has a terrible 5.93 ERA over his last five starts.

I expect Hernandez to outpitch and outlast Davis here as the M's start the series with a win. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Rangers have taken the first three games of this series and are pulling away in the West. That makes tonight's contest absolutely critical for the Angels. With their ace on the mound, I expect them them to respond accordingly.

I successfully played against the Angels the last time that Weaver pitched, so I was happy to see him have a rare bad outing. Weaver got rocked and I easily cashed my ticket on the Jays, an 11-2 winner. However, given what he's done on the season, I feel we can cut Weaver some slack. Indeed, he's 14-6 with a superb 2.13 ERA on the season.

When I played against Weaver last time out, he was on the road - matched up against Ricky Romero. Now, he's at home - facing a pitcher arguably not as good as Romero - and yet the Angels are laying roughly the same price they were for the game at Toronto.

Given Weaver's dominance at home, I feel that's providing us with very fair value. In 10 home starts here, Weaver is 6-1 with an outstanding 1.51 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. The Angels are 8-2 (+4.9) in those games. He's averaging 7.7 innings per start here too, leaving little work for the bullpen. In 77 1/3 innings here, he's got an excellent 71 K's to only 21 walks. Perhaps most impressive, in that entire 77+ home innings, he's allowed only a single home run.

You may recall that in his last start here, Weaver tossed nine shutout innings. He didn't factor in the decision but the Angels won 1-0.

Speaking of 1-0 shutout victories, Weaver's last start against Texas was exactly that. Weaver tossed seven shutout innings in that 7/21 contest, en route to earning the "W" in a 1-0 Angels win. Overall, for his career, Weaver is 9-5 with a very solid 3.23 ERA and 1.188 WHIP against Texas. Including last month's gem here, the Angels are a perfect 8-0 in Weaver's last eight home starts vs. the Rangers.

Lewis pitched well last time out and has a solid 11-8 record. However, his 4.01 ERA for the season is nearly double what Weaver's ERA is. He got rocked in his lone start against the Angels this season (Angels won 15-4!) and the Rangers are 0-3 his last three starts in the series, getting outscored by a combined margin of 23-6.

Last game notwithstanding, Weaver rarely allows many home runs - and almost never at home. On the other hand, Lewis has allowed a whopping 28 in 24 games this season.

The Angels are 24-8 (+13.9) the last few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less. I expect Weaver to "do his thing" here as the Angels earn a badly needed win. *10

I'm playing on Toronto and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. The ball has certainly been flying out of Safeco Field the past couple of nights. I was there in the stands for both Sunday's game against Boston (an "under") and Monday's "slug-fest" in the series opener vs. Toronto. While I didn't catch it live, yesterday's game was even higher-scoring. That's not all that "normal" at Safeco though and tonight I expect pitching to take center stage.

Brandon Morrow goes for the Jays. For the season, Morrow is 4-1 with an outstanding 2.97 ERA and 1.006 WHIP on the road. The Jays are 7-2 in his road starts and he's allowed only four home runs in those nine games. He's averaged 6.4 innings per road start and has more K's than innings pitched.

Morrow, who has seen each of his last two starts finish below the total, should have added motivation to pitch well. This will be his first start here at Seattle, the team which he once played for. As the pitcher he got traded for is now Seattle's closer, Morrow would love to show the Seattle (and all the Toronto fans there and there are lots) fans what they are missing out on.

Meanwhile, Beaven will have the advantage of starting against Toronto for the first time. He had some trouble with the powerful Red Sox last time out but in his previous start he limited the Angels to one run through eight complete innings.

Even after the b2b high-scoring games, the UNDER remains a healthy 122-88 the last 200+ games here at Safeco, stats I expect to improve this evening. *10

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Momentum can be an important factor in all sports and baseball is no exception. Positive momentum can be particularly important for a struggling team - like the Astros. The Cubs recently gained some positive momentum and have strung together some victories. However, after last night's game, Houston has "Big Mo" on its side here. The Astros won 6-5 off a pinch hit grand slam in the ninth inning. Perhaps more importantly, the Astros should have a solid edge on the mound.

Norris didn't get any run support against the Dodgers and that's been a problem for him this season. However, I expect him to get some here. Not only did his team just potentially build some positive momentum from last night's thriller but they're facing a pitcher who was just called up from the minors.

Instead of facing Carlos Zambrano - a longtime "Astro Killer," who is currently unable to play - the Astros get to face Casey Coleman. Coleman hasn't made a big league start since early July and he was 2-4 with a terrible 7.23 ERA and 1.939 WHIP before getting sent down to the minors.

Norris goes for the Astros and he's been solid at home almost all season. Last time out, pitching at LA, he allowed only two hits through seven shutout innings, striking out eight. Houston manager Brad Mills noted: "You can't say enough about Norris. He did outstanding."

Coleman got the better of Norris in a "pitcher's duel" here last October. This afternoon, I expect Norris to get the better of him and I look for the Astros to record a rare "winning streak." *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Orioles grabbed yesterday's series opener, their second straight win. They haven't won three in a row in many weeks though and they're still a brutal 18-37 on the road. In fact, they haven't won back to back road games since June. The O's are also still an ugly 2-12 their last 14 games here at Oakland. I expect the A's, who have now lost four straight, to bounce back with a much needed victory this evening.

Moscoso is off an excellent effort in which he limited the Jays to two runs (1 earned) on only three hits, through six complete innings. That was at Toronto. He was also sharp in his last home start. In that one, he held the Twins two two runs through 6 1/3 innings. With that victory, he's 3-1 with a very solid 3.18 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in six home starts. The A's were a profitable 5-1 in those games. His lone home start against Baltimore resulted in a 6-4 victory, back on 5/29.

Matusz gets the call for the O's. After a 3-game stretch in late June saw him go 0-3 with an awful 12.15 ERA and 2.176 WHIP, he got sent to the minors. He did have some success there. However, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be able to keep it up now that he's returning to the big leagues. Keep in mind that he's 1-4 with a terrible 8.77 ERA and 1.988 WHIP in six big league starts this season.

Matusz's lone 2011 victory did come against the A's. However, he's still got a poor 5.48 ERA in four career starts against them.

For the season, the Oakland bullpen has much better numbers than the Baltimore bullpen.

The A's are a lucrative 51-40 (+7.5) the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. That includes a 5-2 (+2.4) mark this season. They've been better against southpaws than against right-handers all season and they're also a profitable 12-7 (+2.6) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Both teams closed out the weekend with a big win. The Jays rallied for an extra-inning victory over the Angels. Meanwhile, the Mariners knocked off the Red Sox, their second straight win over one of the top teams in baseball. (Note that the M's were the first team since June to beat Boston in a series!) I feel that the M's are in excellent shape to start his series off with a victory, making it three in a row.

I won with the M's in Pineda's last home start, a 3-2 win over Tampa on 7/30. Pineda allowed only one hit in 6 1/3 innings in that game, striking out a whopping 10. (Speaking of K's, Pineda entered the weekend with the most strikeouts of any rookie pitcher.)

Including that dominating effort, Pineda is 5-2 with an extremely impressive 2.33 ERA and 1.000 here at Safeco. In 58 innings here, he's got 60 K's.

One of Pineda's home victories came against these same Jays, back in the spring. In that 4/12 outing, Pineda allowed only two runs (only one was earned!) through 7 1/3 innings. During that stretch, he allowed just five hits while striking out seven.

Pineda was up against Ricky Romero in that one, arguably the Jays top pitcher. However, this time he'll be opposed by Henderson Alvarez.

The Jays did win Alvarez's major league debut but he wasn't particularly impressive, as indicated by his poor 4.76 ERA and 1.587 WHIP. While Pineda was an All Star, lets not forget that Alvarez was in Double-A (New Hampshire) last week.

The M's climbed above .500 at home with yesterday's victory. Note that they've also quietly gone a profitable 38-30 (+8.2) when playing a game with an O/U line of seven or less.

Including Pineda's earlier win against the Jays here, the M's have taken five of the last seven home meetings in the series. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS. After the Cardinals grabbed Friday's opener by a score of 6-1, the Rockies bounced back with a 6-1 win of their own yesterday. I expect the Cards to have a solid edge for this evening's series finale.

For starters, note that the Cards are still a profitable 44-23 the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. That includes an outstanding 15-7 mark their last 22 in that role.

Jackson struggled in his lone road start, since joining the Cards. He's been solid in both starts here at St. Louis though. In his first start here, he limited the Cubs to one run through seven innings. Most recently, facing the Brewers, he allowed three runs (only two were earned) in six innings. That's been a pattern for Jackson all season, even before coming here. While he's had some trouble on the road, he's got a terrific 2.67 ERA in 11 "home" starts. Averaging well over six innings per outing, he's only allowed four home runs in his 11 home starts (1 in 2 starts here) and has 57 K's to just 21 walks.

Rogers has an impressive 6-1 record. However, he hasn't pitched nearly as well as that suggests. For the season, he's got an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.725 WHIP. His numbers as a starter are slightly better (4.91 ERA and 1.667 WHIP) but are still far from impressive. He's 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA his last three starts, which is obviously very good. However, a closer look reveals that he's got an awful 1.824 WHIP during that stretch. In other words, he's been giving up a large number of baserunners (nearly two per inning) and has arguably been fortunate not to have allowed more runs recently.

The Rockies have had some remarkable late-season runs in the past. However, they're currently 11.5 games back in their division with both the Giants and the Diamondbacks well ahead of them and I don't feel that this year's team has what it takes to make a serious run at catching either of those clubs. On the other hand, the Cards are still only five games back of the Brewers. They're still well within striking distance but badly need to start stringing together victories. They've got a potent lineup and I look for them to bounce back and grab today's rubber game. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND on the Run-Line. The Rangers have won each of the first two games of this series in convincing fashion. Today, however, I expect them to have their hands full the entire way. With the Rangers favored on the moneyline, we're able to get the A's at a very reasonable price on the run-line. While I feel the A's have an excellent shot at the "outright win," in a game where runs are expected to be fairly limited, (O/U line is currently 8u15) getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with could easily prove to be very valuable.

Harden goes for the A's. When healthy, he's always been extremely capable. He showed that in his last start. Pitching at Toronto, he allowed just one run on only five hits, through seven complete innings. He had eight K's with only two walks and the A's won by a score of 4-1.

While he didn't factor in the decision, Harden was also very sharp in his most recent home start. In that one, he allowed just two runs on only three hits, through six complete innings. He had seven K's and allowed just two walks. Including that start, Harden has a very solid 3.32 ERA in three home starts, to go along with an outstanding 0.789 WHIP. In 19 innings here, he's got an impressive 22 K's with only four walks.

Note that Harden figures to have some extra motivation, as he pitched for Texas last season. The Rangers already roughed him up on 7/1 (at Texas) but that was just his second start of the season. He's in a much better groove now and I expect him to be much better, here at Oakland. Note that Harden's teams are a profitable 11-5 in his last 16 August "home" starts. Two of those five losses came by a single run. So, if getting +1.5 runs on each, his teams would be 13-3 in his last 16 August home starts.

Admittedly, Harrison is also very tough. That said, the Rangers are just 6-9 his last 15 road starts. Note that the last four of those victories all came by two runs or less, one of them by a single run. So, they'd be just 5-10 his last 15 road starts, if laying -1.5 runs in each. One of those losses came in Harrison's last start here at Oakland. In that game, he allowed four runs in just 1 2/3 innings, en route to suffering a 7-2 loss. While Harrison should be better than that this afternoon, I look for Harden to match him pitch for pitch and for the A's to earn AT LEAST the "cover." *10

I'm playing SEATTLE on the Run-Line. The Red Sox grabbed yesterday's series opener. With their ace on the mound, I feel that the Mariners have an excellent shot at bouncing back and evening up the series this afternoon. That said, with the Red Sox favored, we're able to get the M's at +1.5 runs at a very reasonable price. In a game where runs are expected to be precious, (O/U line is currently 6.5) getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with could easily prove to be very valuable.

As noted, Hernandez goes for the home team. He suffered a very tough 2-1 loss last time out. (Note that it came by only one run.) In that outing, he allowed just four hits and two runs through eight innings. He also had 12 K's and didn't walk a single batter. His previous two starts resulted in a 4-2 victory over the A's and a 9-2 win over the Yankees. That give shim a 2-1 record (3-0 if getting +1.5 in all games) with a superb 2.11 ERA and 0.985 WHIP his last three starts. He's averaged greater than seven innings in those games and has a very impressive 26 K's in 21 1/3 innings.

Note that Hernandez is 4-2 in 10 starts vs. the Red Sox. Seattle was 6-4 in those games and one of the four losses came by a single run, so they'd be 7-3 if getting +1.5.

Of course, Beckett has also been very tough and he's also enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Mariners, since joining Boston. That said, his last three starts (and four of his last five) have ALL been decided by a single run. Additionally, his last start here at Seattle was also decided by a single run, a 2-1 "pitcher's duel."

With the M's now 12-3 in Hernandez's last 15 August home starts, I'll happily grab the extra +1.5 runs. *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. This game is arguably more "important" for the Diamondbacks. Not only are they playing in front of their home fans but they're also right in the middle of a battle with the defending World Champs for first place in the NL West. On the other hand, even the most optimistic of Mets' fans have to now realize that their team is now officially "playing out the string." Additionally, Arizona may have some additional motivation from having been swept at New York earlier.

Both today's starters have excellent records. Gee is an impressive 10-3 with a solid 3.93 ERA on the season. Kennedy has been even better. He's 14-3 with an outstanding 3.20 ERA. Note that Gee averages 5.8 innings per road start while Kennedy averages 6.9 innings per home start.

Lately, the gap in between the pitchers has been even larger. Gee has a 5.40 ERA his last three starts, to go along with a poor 1.62 WHIP. During that stretch he needed 300 pitches to get through just 16 1/3 innings. He had 12K's and 10 walks.

On the other hand, Kennedy is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a terrific 0.90 WHIP his last three starts. During that stretch, he's recorded 19 K's while walking only three. He's thrown nearly the same number of pitches (311) as Gee, yet has been far more efficient, tossing 21 innings over that stretch.

Going back further finds Kennedy with a stellar 2.63 ERA his last six starts, going undefeated during that stretch. For the season, he's 12-2 with a superb 2.94 ERA in 19 evening starts.

Note that Arizona has already seen Gee once this season while the Mets haven't seen Kennedy for more than a year.

The Dbax are 5-1 the last six times that they hosted the Mets, including a 13-2 victory in Kennedy's lone home start in the series. All things considered, I feel the price on the home team is more than fair. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds got back on track with a 3-2 victory last night. With an advantage in the starting pitching department, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's contest.

Cueto is off a rare bad start. However, before getting too concerned about that, keep in mind that he still has a 2.06 ERA overall (best in NL) and that before his last start, he'd allowed three or fewer earned runs in 17 straight starts. Also, note that he pitched on the road last time out. Two starts ago, in his most recent home start, he delivered a complete-game three-hit shutout against the Giants. Including that gem, he's got a superb 1.51 ERA in seven starts here. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .176 in those games.

Chacin has quite respectable numbers on the season. He walked five in his last start though, allowing three runs in just five innings.

He's also been dealing with an injury to his pitching hand. Additionally, with this being an "early" start, note that Chacin has a poor 4.82 ERA in eight daytime starts compared to a strong 2.81 ERA in 15 evening ones. I expect Chacin to struggle and the Reds to roll. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Things didn't look good for the Rays yesterday, as they trailed 7-3 heading into the bottom of the 9th inning. They didn't give up though, scoring five runs and winning 8-7. That gives them plenty of momentum heading into this afternoon's contest, while also potentially having a deflating effect on the Royals. In addition to having "Big Mo" in their corner, the Rays figure to have a major advantage in the pitching department.

Niemann is 5-0 with a stellar 2.68 ERA in the eight starts since coming off the disabled list. He's also 3-0 with a superb 1.15 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Kansas City.

On the other hand, Duffy has an ugly 7.24 ERA his last three starts. After losing his last start, he Duffy was quoted as saying: "I didn't have very good command. I didn't do my job. I didn't locate very well. I was really frustrated. I'm really frustrated with myself right now. I didn't keep my team in the game. They battled back but by no means did I give us a chance to win."

The Rays are now 17-7 against the Royals the past few seasons, including 11-3 here in Tampa. With Niemann getting the better of Duffy, I expect them to ride the momentum from last night's thriller and continue that series dominance here. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Having dropped the first two games in this series and five of their last six overall, the Reds badly need a victory. I expect this matchup to provide them with the perfect opportunity to get one.

The Reds entered last night's game averaging 5.2 runs per game at home while hitting a respectable .270 here. The Reds' bullpen entered last night;s game with a stingy 2.98 ERA and 1.298 WHIP at home.

While the Rockies bullpen entered last night's game with a solid 3.55 ERA on the road, the Rockies offense entered last night's game averaging a mere 3.6 runs per game on the road, hitting only .236.

Leake has been pitching very well recently. His last three starts have all been of the "quality" variety and he has a 2.89 ERA in those games. His last home start saw him allow just one earned run through 6 1/3 innings. He had seven K's without walking a batter and beat the Giants by a score of 7-2. With that victory, the Reds are 7-4 in his 11 starts here.

Boston signed Millwood to a minor-league contract back on May 19 and he posted a 4.28 ERA in his 13 minor league starts. That wasn't good enough for the Red Sox but it landed him a job here, filling in for the injured Juan Nicasio. Lets not forget that Millwood was 4-16 with a 5.10 ERA in 2010, the third time in four seasons that his ERA finished above five.

I expect Leake to continue his recent solid pitching and the Reds to bounce back with a victory. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS at +1.5 runs. With the Phillies listed as mid-sized road favorites, we're able to get the Dodgers on the run-line at a relatively reasonable price. I feel the Dodgers have an excellent shot at the "upset" here. However, the Phillies are a very tough team and in a game that is expected to be low-scoring (the O/U line is only 7) getting that extra +1.5 runs could prove very valuable. (We saw that last night, when the Dodgers scored with two outs in the bottom of the 9th to lose 2-1.)

There's no denying that Worley has been very good. That said, note that four of his last eight starts resulted in a 1-run victories. This again demonstrates that getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with could easily come into play.

For the most part, Billingsley has been very stingy at home. In 11 starts here, he's got an excellent 2.87 ERA and 1.222 WHIP. He's allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four home starts. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers were 3-1 in those games. He's only allowed three home runs in his last 11 starts here and opposing hitters are batting only .226 against him here.

While Worley hasn't started against the Dodgers, Billingsley has pitched very well against the Phillies each of the past two seasons. In 2009, he beat them 5-3, allowing just one run in seven innings. Last season, almost exactly one year to the day, he held them to two runs through six complete innings.

Even after last night's loss, the Dodgers are still 47-36 against the moneyline the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less. Catching the Phillies playing the final game of a 10-game road trip, I expect the Dodgers to earn at least the "cover." *10

I'm playing on St. Louis and Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total. Admittedly, neither of tonight's scheduled starters fared too well in their last start, each of those starts coming against today's opponent. However, those games were both at Milwaukee. With tonight's contest being played at St. Louis, I expect both to bounce back with much better performances.

Jackson has a stellar 2.64 ERA in his 10 "home" starts. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six home starts. In his lone home start as a Cardinal, he allowed only one run in seven complete innings. Six of his 10 home starts have fallen below the total.

Meanwhile, Marcum has seen the UNDER go a profitable 9-2 in his 11 road starts. In those games, he's gone 5-2 with a superb 2.40 ERA and 1.025 WHIP. His last three road starts have all finished with seven or fewer combined runs and those starts came at venues like Coors Field and Yankee Stadium.

Note that the Cards are off a 4-game series sweep at Florida. That's worth mentioning as we find the UNDER at a lucrative 35-14-6 the past few seasons, when the Cards are off three or more consecutive victories.

While the "over" is now 7-2-1 the last 10 times that the Cards played at Milwaukee, the UNDER is a profitable 9-2 the last 11 times that the Brewers played here at St. Louis, including a perfect 5-0 UNDER mark the last five meetings here, dating back to last August. Those five games had final scores of 3-2, 3-2, 6-0, 4-0 and 3-1. I expect another low-scoring affair here. *10

I'm playing on the NEW YORK METS. The Mets grabbed yesterday's series opener, snapping the Padres' 4-game winning streak. I expect them to have the advantage again for tonight's "all southpaw" affair.

For starters, note that yesterday's loss may have been rather "deflating" for the Padres. I say that because they fought so hard for a victory, only to come up short. Down most of the way, they fought back to tie the game and eventually take an 8-4 lead. The Mets scored five in the final two frames, including three of San Diego's star closer, Heath Bell. Those types of losses can take a toll.

Conversely, a win like the Mets had last night can really provide a boost and give a team some confidence. After the win, David Wright noted: "We're not conceding anything. There are a lot of games left. Crazier things have happened."

As for the all southpaw affair, note that New York is batting .259 and averaging a healthy five runs per game against left-handed starters. Meanwhile, San Diego is batting .247 and averaging a mere 3.3 runs per game in its games vs. southpaw starters.

Although he didn't factor in the decision, Capuano pitched very well last time out. In six innings, he allowed only two runs on just four hits. He's now quietly gone a minimum of six complete innings in eight straight home starts. Even better, he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of those eight home starts.

Capuano finally figures to get some decent run support. In four starts, Leblanc has an ugly 4.98 ERA and a terrible 1.892 WHIP. In two road starts, those numbers climb to a brutal 7.04 ERA and 2.216 WHIP. Last time out, he gave up only three runs in six innings.

However, that was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and a closer look shows that he still allowed nine hits and two baserunners. His previous start came on the road and he gave up seven hits (walking two) in just three innings, en route to a 14-5 loss.

While they've managed to enjoy some success when playing during the afternoon, the Padres are now a dismal 26-48 (-20.5) when playing during the evening. Those numbers should be even worse by the end of this one. *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks got back on track yesterday afternoon, earning a much-needed 4-3 victory. That wasn't "easy," as it came against Clayton Kershaw, a starting pitcher who entered the game with a 14-3 record. Today, the Diamondbacks will be taking on a Houston team which is a dismal 18-37 on the road and an awful 37-77 overall. With Hudson on the mound, I look for them to string together consecutive victories.

True, the price may initially seem a little steep. Keep in mind that Arizona is 23-9 (+8.2) the past few seasons when listed as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range. During the same stretch, the Astros were 17-34 (-6.6) as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range. Note that Houston is also a money-burning 2-17 the last 19 times that it played a road game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5.

Hudson is 6-3 with a very solid 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this year. He's 11-7 overall and the Diamondbacks are 2-0 in his two starts vs. Houston. On the other hand, Rodriguez is just 7-8 on the season and 2-5 with a terrible 6.35 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in seven starts against Arizona.

Hudson outpitched Lincecum, at San Francisco, in his last start. Now, he returns home where the Diamondbacks are 12-5 in his 17 starts since coming over from Chicago. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on New York and Boston to finish UNDER the total. After a low-scoring (3-2) opener, yesterday's game sailed above the number with 14 runs. I expect this evening's finale to see a return to the type of pitching we saw on Friday.

Beckett is a perfect 3-0 against the Yankees this season. He's allowed only two runs in 21 innings, striking out 25. His lone home 2011 start against the Yankees saw him allow just two hits through eight shutout innings, strking out 10, en route to a 4-0 victory.

For the season, Beckett is 9-4 with a superb 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .187 against him. In 10 home starts, he's 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. In 17 evening starts, he's 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Garcia has been tough lately. He's got a 2.21 ERA his last three starts. While he hasn't been at his best vs. Boston, Garcia has been excellent on the road. In eight road starts this season, he's got a 2.85 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Four of his last five starts have produced eight or fewer combined runs. His last road start saw him toss 6 2/3 shutout innings, en route to a 4-0 victory. I look for another well pitched affair. *10 (Main Event)

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I successfully played on the Giants on the "run-line" yesterday. That extra +1.5 runs turned out to be critical as the Giants lost by a score of 2-1. Today, however, I don't expect to need any extra runs. Not with Tim Lincecum on the mound and the defending champs desperate for a victory and looking to avoid getting swept at home.

While he hasn't received much run support, Lincecum has a superb 1.74 ERA his last nine starts. He's also 3-1 with an even better 1.45 ERA in his last five regular-season starts against the Phillies. Most recently, on 7/28 at Philadelphia, he limited the Phillies to three hits through six shutout innings, en route to a 4-1 victory.

Lincecum figures to have a chip on his shoulder. It wasn't long ago Phillies manager said this about Lincecum and Matt Cain: "They're good pitchers. You say they're great pitchers. To me, I don

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates have been falling fast and they got hammered in yesterday's opener. With many of the Pirate faithful abandoning ship, the line has come down all the way into the "pick-em range." I feel that provides us with excellent value and I look for the Bucs to bounce back with a badly needed victory.

Yesterday's opener featured a pair of right-handed starters, while today's game features a pair of southpaws. I expect that to favor the Pirates. Pittsburgh has now faced right-handed starters in six straight games. Going back further shows that the Pirates have only faced one southpaw starters over their last 12 games. That came on the road at Philadelphia and it was against Cliff Lee, one of the best left-handers in the business.

Even though they lost that one vs. Lee, the Pirates are still a very solid 18-12 (+8.8) against left-handed starters overall, including an impressive 12-6 since late May. On the other hand, the Padres are 14-19 (-4.2) against southpaw starters. San Diego averages just 3.3 runs, hitting only .242, in games against left-handers.

Admittedly, Maholm's record isn't too impressive. However, he's pitched a lot better than that record indicates. That's particularly true at home. In 13 starts here, he's got a stellar 2.63 ERA and 1.195 WHIP, averaging better than six innings per outing. He's only allowed four home runs here in 13 games.

After a recent strong start in the San Diego rotation, Luebke has quickly cooled off. He's 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA his last three starts. Last time out, he gave up five runs on 10 hits. In his previous start, he gave up three home runs.

All things considered, getting what should be a "desperate" Pirates team at this price seems more than fair. *10

I'm playing SAN FRANCISCO on the Run-Line. (+1.5 runs.) In a game featuring a pair of excellent pitchers, one which has an O/U line of less than seven runs, runs figure to be at a premium. That said, getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with becomes extremely valuable.

Coincidentally, even though I have plenty of respect for Hamels, I also played against the Phillies in his last start, also taking the +1.5 runs with the home underdog. The Phillies did rally for a comeback extra-inning 4-3 victory but the +1.5 runs came in extremely handy, as it turned a losing ticket into a winner. It was Hamels' second straight start which was decided by a single run. His previous start came against none other than Matt Cain.

Cain was better than Hamels on that day. He allowed one run through seven innings - and it was unearned. Hamels was also tough, just not quite as good as Cain. He allowed two runs, both earned, through 7 2/3 innings. Hamels allowed six hits, Cain gave up just four.

That was at Philadelphia but Cain's last home start against the Phillies also came against Hamels. He also outpitched Hamels in that one, earning a 3-0 victory. Cain allowed just two hits through his seven shutout innings. That brings the Phillies to 0-3 in Hamels' last three starts in this series.

Despite a couple of recent losses, the Giants are still 14-6 in Cain's last 20 starts here. Four of the six losses came by two or fewer runs, which again helps to show how valuable the +1.5 runs could be. Cain should be highly motivated here. Not only is he looking to bounce back from a rare bad outing and to help his team get a badly needed victory but he's also looking to make Phillies manager Charlie Manuel eat his words. After the last series, Manuel said Cain and Lincecum were "good but not great." I expect Cain to be "great" today, or at least "good" enough to get the Giants a win on the run-line. *10

I'm playing on BOSTON. I expect the home team to have the edge in Round 1 of the latest clash of these AL East heavyweights.

Naturally, as usual, its a very big game and series. As Boston's Dustin Pedroia noted: "We are excited. We feel like we have a great team and so do they. We are trying to win the division..."

The teams enter the series tied in the standings. However, even with a loss yesterday, the Red Sox 35-21 home record is better than the Yankees' 31-20 mark on the road. The Red Sox have also been on a roll in the series, winning eight of nine meetings this season. Boston outscored New York by a commanding 60-37 margin in those games.

The pitching matchup should give the Sox an excellent shot at continuing that series success for another night.

Colon is 8-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.229 WHIP, averaging 6.1 innings per start. Lester's numbers are a bit better. He checks in at 11-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.191 WHIP, averaging 6.4 innings per start. Colon is 2-1 with a solid 2.95 ERA and 1.255 WHIP. Lester has been even better though. He's 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.866 WHIP. Last time out, Colon needed 105 pitches just to get through five innings.

Colon is just 8-11 against the Red Sox for his career, including 0-2 this season. Meanwhile, Lester is 8-1 vs. the Yankees.

I expect the Sox, who are a profitable 28-12 in divisional play this year, to reclaim sole possession of first in the division. *10

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. After hanging around all season, the Pirates recent losing streak has seen them dip below the .500 mark. Naturally, they could desperately use a victory. I feel that tonight's matchup will provide them with an excellent opportunity to get one.

The Pirates and their fans still believe and aren't ready to roll over, quite yet. As reliever Joe Beimel noted: "It's how you rebound after a streak like this. We're very capable of going on a streak where we win 10, 11 in a row. We've just still got to believe that, and hopefully pull it together."

Sending Karstens to the mound should improve the Pirates' changes. He's off a quality start at Philadelphia, holding the Phillies to three runs through seven complete innings. That was on the road. In nine home starts, he's 4-2 with a fantastic 1.83 ERA, averaging 6 2/3 innings per outing here. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all three career starts vs. San Diego but has received little run support.

Harang had been pitching well but has started to struggle recently. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 5 2/3 innings. He now has an ugly 6.88 ERA and 1.647 WHIP his last three starts. He lost his lone 2011 start against the Pirates, giving up four runs in just five innings.

While I won with the Padres on Wednesday, they're just 17-30 (-12.3) when coming off a victory. I expect the highly motivated Pirates to be too much to handle for them in tonight's opener. *10 (N.L. Personal Favorite.)

I'm playing on COLORADO. After getting swept by the powerful Phillies, the Rockies should be thrilled to step down in class to host the Nationals. Not only are the Nats a poor 21-34 on the road but the Rockies are 13-4 in the series the past few seasons, including 6-1 the last seven here at Colorado.

Esmil Rogers has made four starts this season. He got rocked in one of them, which has hurt his overall numbers. However, he allowed three or fewer runs in each of the other three, winning each of them. He's now allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, dating back to last August.

Most recently, after Jimenez got pulled due to the trade on Saturday, Rogers came in and allowed just one run and one hit through five innings.

Rogers was quoted as saying: "I feel really good. All I'm thinking about is that, whether it's out of the bullpen or in the rotation, I'm going to be ready. My arm and my body are feeling really good."

Detweiler has made only one start this season and that came a month ago, on 7/5. He started against the Rockies once before and got pummeled for six runs in just four innings, allowing eight hits and walking three. Including that 10-4 loss, the Nats are a money-burning 1-7 in Detweiler's eight career road starts, going 7-13 in his 20 starts overall.

For his career, Detweiler is 3-9 with a 5.08 ERA in those 20 starts. Manager Davey Johnson said this of putting Detweiler in the rotation: "If we were fighting for a pennant, we might not do it. But since we're where we're at, it's time to start looking at some young arms."

While they lost a tough one against Cole Hamels (blew lead in 9th and lost in extra innings) here on 8/1, the Rockies are still 6-3 the last nine times that they faced a southpaw starter here. I expect them to improve on those stats and to continue their domination in this series tonight. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Behind a gem from Romero, the Jays grabbed yesterday's series opener. I expect the Rays to return the favor here.

Shields got really roughed up last time out. While that was admittedly a pretty bad outing, let's keep in mind that it came on the road though. Also, in Shields' defense, he may have been distracted by trade rumors. In his previous start, Shields pitched at home vs. the Yankees. He was dominant in that one, allowing only one run in 7 2/3 innings, en route to earning a 2-1 victory. He's back home now and I expect him to bounce back with a big performance.

Including the gem vs. the Yankees, Shields has a superb 2.46 ERA and 1.036 WHIP in 11 home starts. He's averaged 7.6 innings per start here and has an impressive 88 K's in 84 innings here. Also note that in his lone 2011 start vs. the Jays, Shields tossed a complete-game 4-hit shutout.

Shields should finally get some run support here. Villaneuva has gone less than six innings in each of his last two starts and has just one strike out in each of those games. He's got an ugly 6.48 ERA (1.62 WHIP) his last three starts and his seasonal ERA has ballooned up to 4.33.

After his last outing Villaneuva was quoted as saying: "I had horrible command with my fastball ... "

The Rays, who roughed up Villaneuva in a very brief look at him in relief back in April, are 73-27 (+29.2) the last 100+ times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Behind a big "bounce-back" performance from Shields, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on Milwaukee and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. This has been a high-scoring series thus far. After the first game snuck above the total with eight runs, the teams combined for 15 yesterday. While I lost on the 'under' yesterday, with an even higher O/U to work with, I'm fully willing to come back and give it another shot this afternoon.

While his 7-8 record isn't too impressive, Randy Wolf is quietly having a solid season. Through 22 starts, he's got a very respectable 3.44 ERA. He hasn't fared too well in the run support department though which has led to the UNDER going a profitable 15-7 when he's taken the mound. At home, Wolf's numbers are better. He's 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA, averaging a healthy 6 1/2 innings per outing.

Wolf has been at his best recently, too. After posting back to back quality starts on the road, he returned home last time out and promptly tossed seven shutout innings. He allowed just four hits, earning a 4-0 victory. That brings the UNDER go 3-0 his last three starts; Wolf has a stellar 2.21 ERA in those games.

Wolf's lone 2011 start against the Cardinals stayed below the total. In 16 career starts against them, he's got a 3.83 ERA and 1.208 WHIP with the UNDER going 9-6-1, including 3-0 the last three.

As sharp as Wolf has been recently, Jackson has been even better. He's 3-0 over his last three starts with an outstanding 1.23 ERA. He won his first start as a Cardinal and his last two road starts have both fallen below the total. Jackson allowed a total of two runs in 15 innings in those games and won by scores of 4-2 and 5-0.

Both Jackson's career starts vs. the Brewers have fallen below the total, most recently a 3-2 "pitcher's duel" vs. Gallardo last May. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring that many will be expecting. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants will likely be a "popular" pick tonight. After all, they've lost four in a row and with Tim Lincecum on the mound, most will assume that they'll snap their skid. While I often find myself against the masses, sometimes the "popular" side can also be the "right" side. I expect that to be the case tonight.

Lincecum's overall numbers still aren't probably as good as we've come to expect. However, with a 2.78 ERA and 1.194 WHIP, they're starting to get better and better. That's because "The Freak" has started to turn up the heat. Over his last three starts, he's got a 0.95 ERA, allowing just two runs while striking out 20 in 19 innings. Last time out, he went into Philadelphia and tossed six shutout innings, allowing only three hits.

Lincecum has allowed one run or less in seven of his last 14 home starts; the Giants won nine of those games.

Hudson is also tough. However, he's generally much stronger at home. On the road, he's got a poor 4.64 ERA, through 11 starts. Hudson hasn't been as sharp as Lincecum the last couple of outings. Last time out, he allowed four runs in six innings, at Petco Park. Hudson's previous start saw him allow five runs on 10 hits.

Hudson has already lost vs. the Giants twice this season. Meanwhile, Lincecum tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just four hits, in his lone 2011 start vs. Arizona. He didn't get the decision but the Giants won 1-0. The Giants are 3-0 his last three starts vs. Arizona. Lincecum had 31 K's in 21 2/3 innings and the Giants won by a combined score of 10-4. Overall, in 15 starts, Lincecum is 7-2 with a 2.42 ERA vs. Arizona.

The Giants are 33-14 (+10.4) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. That includes a 9-2 (+6) mark their last 11 in that situation. With "The Freak" doing his thing, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Prior to yesterday's series opening victory, the Mariners had only two wins in many weeks. I was on them for both those games and I expect them to come through with another victory this evening.

While the A's still have the better record overall, the M's home record is actually much stronger than the A's road record. Oakland is now a dismal 18-36 on the road. Meanwhile, if they could manage to sweep this series, the M's could get back to .500 here, as they're 27-29 at home on the season. Summer has officially arrived in the Pacific Northwest and I look for the M's to finally "heat up" to the point that they can string together consecutive victories. Having their ace on the mound should certainly help matters.

"King Felix" looked like his old self last time out. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, he limited New York to five hits and one run through seven complete innings. While that was a "July start," note that the M's are 10-4 the last 14 times that Hernandez pitched at home in the month of August, including 4-1 the last five. Hernandez allowed three earned runs or less in ALL 14 of those starts while also pitching at least six complete innings in ALL 14 of them. His last five August starts have seen him allow a grand total of one earned run in 37 combined innings! It doesn't get much better than that.

After dominating the Yanks and snapping the M's losing streak last time out, Hernandez was quoted as saying: "You've got to win this game, because you've got 17 losses in a row. You better do something. You better pitch the way you're supposed to pitch."

Oakland knows all about Hernandez. Indeed, the A's are just 6-14 against the M's when King Felix is on the mound. In those games, Hernandez is 11-4 with a stellar 2.52 ERA. Felix is 2-0 with an awesome 1.09 ERA in three starts against Oakland in 2011 and has won four straight home games in this series.

When healthy, Harden is certainly also capable. Its also true that Harden has previously had success here at Safeco. That said, he's got an awful 6.10 ERA and 1.839 WHIP on the road thus far this season. He last faced Seattle last September and lasted just four innings, giving up four runs.

These pitchers last opposed each other way back in July of 2007. Hernandez got the better of Harden that day, en route to a 4-0 Seattle victory. I expect another dominant effort from the M's ace, leading to a victory for the home team. *10

I'm playing on Milwaukee and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. I won with the Brewers in yesterday's series opener. Today, however, I feel that the value lies with the total. Yesterday's game didn't develop into quite the pitcher's duel that many might have expected, as the final score of 6-2 finished above the total. That one could have easily been lower-scoring though, as the Brewers just happened to string together a number of hits, scoring five runs in one inning - after previously having failed to hit the ball out of the infield.

Today's pitchers don't have the "big names" that we saw in yesterday's Carpenter vs. Greinke clash, however, they're both extremely capable. Lets take a closer look.

Admittedly, if we look at the season as a whole, Garcia has been better at home than on the road. He's been very sharp his last couple of road outings though, seemingly becoming more comfortable pitching away from home. His last road start came at Pittsburgh and he limited the Pirates to just one run through 7 1/3 innings. Prior to that, pitching at Cincinnati, Garcia held the Reds to one earned run in seven complete innings. In those two games, he had a combined 11 K's with only one walk.

Garcia has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Brewers. In six starts in this series, he's got a stellar 2.37 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. The UNDER was 5-1 in those games. His lone 2011 start against Milwaukee saw him toss a complete game 2-hit shutout, en route to a 6-0 victory.

Marcum is also very solid. He's 10-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.118 WHIP on the season. The UNDER is 14-8 in his 22 starts. His last three starts have all finished below the total with Marcum recording a 3.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. Marcum's lone start vs. the Cardinals was of the "quality" variety and stayed below the total.

The two starters both have excellent K/W ratios. Marcum has 114 Ks with 37 walks on the season. Garcia has an identical 114 Ks, walking just 35.

The Brewers have seen the UNDER go a profitable 16-7-1 against southpaw starters, averaging just 3.7 runs in those games. I expect another low-scoring affair. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. These are currently the top two teams in the NL Central, making this is a very important series. The Cardinals are trying to catch Milwaukee while putting some distance between themselves and the Pirates and Reds. The Brewers are trying to extend their lead. While both teams have been rolling, I expect the Brewers to have the advantage for Monday's opener.

For starters, the fact that the game is being played at Milwaukee is significant. While the Cards are a mediocre 28-27 on the road, the Brewers are now a fantastic 39-14 at home. No team has lost fewer games at its home park.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup and we find that, like their teams, Chris Carpenter and Zach Greinke both prefer their "home cooking."

Carpenter has a 4.46 ERA in 11 road starts this season, compared to a 2.88 ERA in as many home starts. He's allowed three home runs at home but eight on the road.

Meanwhile, Greinke is 2-4 with a poor 5.61 ERA on the road but 6-0 with a 3.55 ERA at home. The Brewers are a perfect 8-0 in his eight starts here and he's got an extremely impressive 71 K's to just seven walks in 50 2/3 innings here.

Carpenter has pitched fairly well recently. He's got a 2.74 ERA and 1.304 WHIP his last three starts. However, Greinke has been practically unhittable. He's got a 0.92 ERA and 0.915 WHIP his last three starts.

While it seems like both these guys have been around for ages, Greinke is still only 27, as compared to Carpenter being 36. Greinke already outpitched Carpenter when the two faced each other in the spring (5-3 win on 6/11) and I look for the younger man to have the advantage again this evening. *10

I'm playing on St. Louis and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. After Friday's opener saw 11 runs scored, yesterday's produced 18. I expect to see better pitching on ESPN tonight though and for the teams to combine for less than half that many.

Westbrook's overall numbers aren't great but he's been outstanding lately. Last time out, he allowed just one run over six inning. That gives him a 2-0 record with a 2.37 ERA his last three starts. Each of his last two starts have fallen below the total. Going back a bit further finds that he's allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts.

Dempster's overall stats aren't impressive either. However, he's quietly been pretty good, more often than not. He delivered a quality start at Milwaukee last time out, giving up three runs through six complete innings. He had seven K's and one walk. He did get roughed up at Philadelphia in his previous start.

However, before that Philadelphia start he'd thrown eight shutout innings against Florida, which marked the seventh consecutive time that he allowed three or fewer runs.

At the time, teammate Marlon Byrd commented: "That's the Dempster we know. He's a bulldog out there. We always know we'll get something good out of him. Seeing that today was a beautiful thing."

So, that's three earned runs or less in eight of nine starts, which is much better than his overall numbers suggest. Looking back a bit further finds the UNDER at a profitable 9-2 in Dempster's last 11 starts, including 3-0 the last three. Six of his last 10 starts vs. the Cardinals have fallen below the total.

Overall, even including yesterday's result, the Cubs have seen the UNDER go 50-35-3 the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. During that stretch, the Cards have seen the UNDER go 43-34-2 when playing a home game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. I expect those stats to improve this evening. *10

I'm playing on LA and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total. However, the UNDER remains a profitable 9-5-1 the last 15 meetings and I expect this afternoon's finale to result in a low-scoring affair.

Saunders has been very sharp for the Diamondbacks recently. Last time out, he pitched a complete game and only allowed a single run. Prior to that, he allowed two runs through seven complete innings. For the season, through 11 road starts, he's got a stellar 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, averaging a healthy 6 2/3 innings in those games.

Saunders has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his seven starts vs. the Dodgers and four or less in all seven. His three starts here at LA have all finished with seven or fewer runs, two of which stayed below the total. In those three games, Saunders allowed seven earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. That translates to a solid 3.37 ERA.

De La Rosa also comes in on a roll. In fact, he's got an outstanding 1.59 ERA his last three starts. His last two home starts have seen him allow a combined four hits and one run through 12 innings, striking out 13. He'll have the advantage of starting against Arizona for the first time.

For the season, the Diamondbacks haven't hit particularly well on the road while the Dodgers' offense has really struggled at home. With both starters continuing their recent strong pitching, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians have been struggling to score runs and were blanked in yesterday's series opener. I expect that embarrassing 12-0 loss to be "rock bottom" for the Tribe though and for them to bounce back in convincing fashion today.

Masterson goes for the Indians today and he's got a superb 1.72 ERA in his last nine starts. In 21 starts overall, he's got a 2.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, allowing only four home runs on the year. He's 2-0 in two starts vs. the Royals.

Manager Manny Acta said this of Masterson: "I can't even remember anymore when he had a rough outing. He's been so good the whole season."

While Masterson hasn't got run support, he should be able to rely on some here. Paulino is 1-4 with a poor 5.22 ERA his last six starts. For the season, Paulino is 1-8 including 1-6 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road. He's also 1-6 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.54 WHIP when pitching during the evening.

After a 5-0 loss last time out, KC manager Ned Yost said this of Paulino: "He just struggled with his command, especially in the first, second and third innings. He settled down in the fourth, but he lost it again in the sixth."

Even with yesterday's result, the Royals are still 17-32 on the road while the Indians are still 28-23 at home. The Indians desperately need to "stop the bleeding" and I look for them to do so in convincing fashion. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Both these teams saw minor winning streaks snapped yesterday. I expect Oakland to be the team which bounces back and resumes its winning ways tonight.

Admittedly, Gio Gonzalez wasn't his best last time out. However, in fairness to Gonzalez - that start came at Yankee Stadium - and that's not always an easy venue to pitch at. Gonzalez is back home tonight though and that's typically good news for Oakland fans. Prior to his loss at the Bronx, Gonzalez tossed seven shutout innings against the Angels, allowing only four hits. Including that 9-1 victory, Gonzalez is 7-2 with an outstanding 1.87 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 11 starts here. In 72 innings pitched here, he has an impressive 78 K's.

The A's are now 14-4 in his last 18 starts here, dating back to late last July.

Gonzalez has made one start vs. the Twins this season. That came back in the spring, at Minnesota. Gonzalez was dominant (6 shutout innings) in that game and the A's won 1-0. In his last home start vs. the Twins, he allowed two runs through seven innings, earning a 5-4 victory.

Liriano wasn't sharp last time out. He allowed four runs in just 2 1/3 innings, losing 5-2. He's now 6-8 with a poor 4.82 ERA on the season.

Liriano is also just 1-3 with an ugly 5.45 ERA vs. the A's. His last start against them (last September) saw him give up five runs in five innings, en route to suffering a 6-2 loss.

Gonzalez is supported by an Oakland bullpen with a 3.35 ERA and 1.309 WHIP. Liriano is supported by a Minnesota bullpen with a 4.81 ERA and 1.468 WHIP.

Over the past couple of years, the A's have gone a profitable 30-20 (+9) against losing teams, in the second half of the season. With Gonzalez continuing his strong pitching here, I look for them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on San Diego and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. Even with a rare sub-part outing last time out, Hudson still has a solid 3.54 ERA his last three starts. He's 10-6 with a 3.72 ERA on the season, the UNDER going 11-9-1 in his starts. Now, he gets to pitch at Petco, where he's never allowed a run. In three starts vs. the Padres, Hudson is 3-0 with an outstanding 0.83 ERA. All three games stayed below the total. His lone start here at San Diego saw him allow just five hits through seven shutout innings. He had six K's and didn't walk a batter.

Not to be outdone, Latos is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two starts vs. the Diamondbacks - both starts came at Arizona. In 12 innings against the Diamondbacks, Latos allowed just six hits and one run, striking out an impressive 16. Latos has arguably been better than his overall record indicates and he has a stingy 3.10 ERA and 1.082 WHIP his last three starts. Both bullpens are solid.

With both starters continuing their success against today's opponent, I look for this afternoon's finale to be the lowest-scoring of the series. *10

I'm playing on DETROIT. I played against the Tigers yesterday. However, they're now back home with a far more favorable setup.

For starters, I like the scheduled starting time. While they've been away from the West Coast for some time now, the Angels are still a West Coast team playing a very early game - and they had to travel a bit after yesterday, changing hotels. The Tigers also played on the road yesterday but at least got to sleep in their own beds. The Angels have admittedly been pretty good in the afternoon but the Tigers have been even better. Even with a loss yesterday, they're still 25-15 when playing during the day.

More importantly, I feel the pitching matchup favors the Tigers. Penny is 3-2 with a solid 3.15 ERA and 1.276 WHIP at home, averaging 6.5 innings per start here. The Tigers are 7-4 (+3.1) in his home starts. On the other hand, Pineiro is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.512 WHIP on the road. The Angels are 3-5 (-1.3) in his road starts. Note that Pineiro also has a dreadful 9.24 ERA and 2.37 WHIP his last three starts, as he's been allowing more than two runners per inning to reach base.

Both Pineiro and Penny are 1-0 this season against today's opponent. The Tigers got to see a lot more of Pineiro last season than the Angels saw of Pineiro. Pineiro's last start here at Detroit happened to also be Penny's lone 2010 start vs. the Angels. Penny came out on top of that 5/21/2010 meeting, a 9-5 Tigers' victory. Penny wasn't good, as he allowed four runs and five hits in three innings. That was more than good enough though, as Pineiro allowed a whopping 10 runs (9 earned) in 3 1/3 innings.

While the Angels took two of three from the Tigers at Detroit in July, the Tigers are 6-3 (+1.9) as a host in the series, the past few seasons. Over that time, they're 132-82 (+26.6) at home overall. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I'm surprised that the Reds are 0-3 in this series and my wallet has suffered because of it. I still fully expect them to step up and avoid the sweep though.

Bailey is off back to back gems. Two starts ago, he limited the Cardinals to three hits and one run through 7 1/3 innings. Last time out, he held the Braves to five hits and two runs through six complete innings. The Reds won those two games by a combined score of 14-3. Including those results, Bailey is 4-1 with a stellar 2.51 ERA and 1.144 WHIP at home.

On the other hand, Capuano has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts. The Mets lost those games by a combined score of 12-6 with Capuano taking the "L" in each game. For the season, he's 8-10 (Mets are 8-11) with a mediocre 4.21 ERA.

While Bailey will have the advantage of starting against the Mets for the first time, the Reds have seen plenty of Capuano. In 10 starts against Cincinnati, Capuano is 2-3 with an ugly 4.83 ERA and 1.492 WHIP. That only tells part of the story though, as the Mets were just 2-8 in those games. Capuano's most recent start against the Reds came here at Cincinnati last October. He lasted only 3 2/3 innings and gave up 10 hits. He escaped with a no-decision but the Reds still won, 7-4.

The Reds are hitting a very healthy .284 and averaging 5.5 runs in games against southpaw starters. They badly need a win and I look for them to get one. *10

I'm playing on San Diego and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. At first glance, this O/U line seems quite low. Its true, under "normal" or "average" circumstances, this would be a very low O/U line. However, these aren't average circumstances. Lets take a closer look.

Starting with the obvious, Petco Park is a great place to pitch. The Padres are hitting only .215 here, averaging a mere 2.8 runs per game. Opposing teams haven't fared much better, as as they're batting only .238 here.

Next, both starters have been excellent. Kennedy already has 11 wins to go along with a very solid 3.22 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. He's 6-1 on the road. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings and allowed only four hits, en route to a 4-0 victory. Before that, he tossed seven very solid innings, allowing two runs on five hits. That one finished with a score of 3-2.

I was at Petco for Luebke's first ever start and was quite impressed with him. He battled Tim Hudson in that game and left without allowing a run. The Padres would eventually rally for four runs in the bottom of the eighth, earning a 4-1 victoy. I liked what I saw enough that I played on the Padres in Leubeke's next home start - Leubeke was extremely solid once again and the Padres won with ease.

Luebke now has a superb 1.86 ERA and 0.793 WHIP in five starts. Four of those finished below the total. In 29 innings, he's got an impressive 30 K's with only five walks. At home, he now has an outstanding 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP.

While Luebke hasn't started against Arizona, Kennedy is 2-0 with a terrific 2.25 ERA in three starts vs. the Padres. His last start here at San Diego saw him allow just one hit through seven shutout innings, striking out 12.

The Arizona bullpen has a solid 3.41 ERA on the road. The San Diego bullpen has a stingy 2.72 ERA at home.

Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, the Diamondbacks have still seen the UNDER go 20-12-1 in divisional play. They've also seen the UNDER go a lucrative 18-12 against southpaw starters. More of the same tonight. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I lost with the Reds yesterday but I'm fully ready to give them another shot here.

Admittedly, Arroyo's overall numbers aren't too impressive, largely because he's been victimized by the long ball. That said, he usually at least gives the Reds a chance to win. In each of his last two starts, he went 6 2/3 innings, allowing four runs. Unfortunately, he was matched up against Chris Carpenter and Jair Jurrjens in those games, so his relatively solid performances still both resulted in Cincinnati losses.

Today, however, Arroyo will be facing a team which he has dominated AND he'll be opposed by a starting pitcher that's not nearly as good as the ones he's been matched up against recently.

Arroyo is 7-2 with a very solid 3.31 ERA and 1.029 WHIP for his career vs. the Mets. That includes an extremely stingy 2.54 ERA in his last six starts vs. the Mets. Arroyo was undefeated in those games (Reds were 5-1) and he averaged a healthy 7 2/3 innings.

Arroyo should get some solid run support here. Pelfrey is 2-8 with a terrible 5.79 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 13 road starts. The Mets were 3-10 in those games.

I watched Pelfrey's last start and felt he was very fortunate to only allow four runs in six innings. He walked four and gave up two home runs and it easily could have been much worse. Note that Pelfrey has also walked four batters in two of his last three starts vs. the Reds. His lone 2010 start against them saw him walk four batters while giving up nine hits and getting rocked for seven runs, lasting only 4 2/3 innings. The Reds won 8-6.

I expect Pelfrey's road woes to continue as Arroyo continues his success in this series and the Reds bounce back with an important victory. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds followed up their dramatic Sunday night victory over the Braves by dropping yesterday's series opener vs. the Mets. I expect them to bounce right back this evening though.

Cueto has simply been outstanding. He's 6-3 with a superb 1.98 ERA and 1.003 WHIP. The Reds are 9-5 in his 14 starts with Cueto averaging 6.8 innings per outing. That includes a 3-0 mark his last three starts. Last time out, he allowed one run and four hits through six innings, en route to a 3-1 victory.

Niese has been mostly solid - just not spectacular like Cueto. Last time out, he allowed five runs (only 3 were earned) and suffered a 6-2 loss. He's got a mediocre 4.07 ERA on the road.

Niese is supported by a NY bullpen which entered the series with a 4.25 ERA and 1.351 WHIP on the road, having blown six saves. On the other hand, Cueto is supported by a Cincy bullpen which has a 2.75 ERA and 1.261 WHIP at home, having blown just two saves.

The Mets, who scored four yesterday, entered the series averaging 4.2 runs per game vs. right-handed starters. They'll face another righty here. The Reds also faced a right-hander yesterday but today will be seeing a southpaw. That's significant as we find them hitting .283 and averaging 5.5 runs vs. left-handed starters - significantly better numbers than they have vs. right-handers.

Cueto struggled against the Mets early in his career but hasn't faced them yet this season and he beat them in his lone 2010 start. That 5/5/2010 game came against Niese. Cueoto was better than Niese that day. He gave up three runs and seven hits through six innings. Niese gave up four runs on 12 hits, also lasting six. Cueto allowed one home run and had six K's. Niese allowed two home runs and had four K's.

I expect Cueto to get the better of Niese once again and for the Reds to bounce back and even up the series. *10 (Personal Fav)

I'm playing on Florida and Washington to finish UNDER the total. The Marlins have seen the UNDER go 7-4 when playing with a day off this season. With a pair of highly capable starters on the mound, both determined to bounce back with a big effort, I expect those stats to improve this evening.

Neither offense is particularly potent. The Marlins average four runs per game and hit .247. Those numbers dip slightly vs. right-handed starters. The Nats' bats are even worse. They average only 3.9 runs per game, hitting just .235.

Both bullpens are fairly solid and both are rested. Florida relievers have a combined 3.36 ERA and 1.238 WHIP. Washington relievers have a 3.21 ERA and 1.284 WHIP. At home, those numbers are even better, dipping to an excellent 2.58 and 1.162 on the season.

Zimmerman gets the call for the home team. He's off a rare sub-par outing. However, given his overall stats, I believe we can cut him some slack. For the season, he's got an extremely solid 3.00 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. He may have been rusty last time out, as he was pitching on eight day's rest. He still had 5 K's without a walk. Note that prior to that, he'd allowed two earned runs or less in nine of 10 starts and had gone at least six complete innings in 13 straight.

Zimmerman's lone 2011 start against Florida also came against Nolasco. It finished with a score of 3-2.

Like Zimmerman, Nolasco is off a forgettable outing. In fact, he called it the worst performance of his career. However, as was the case with Zimmerman, I believe we can cut him some slack. Prior to the beating the Padres put on him, Nolasco had been pitching brilliantly. In fact, he had an outstanding 0.56 ERA in his previous four outings, two of them complete games.

Nolasco's last start here at Washington came last August. He was great in that game, recording eight K's (with only one walk) through six shutout innings. He earned the "W" in a 5-0 Marlins' victory. Including that result, the UNDER is 9-4 his 13 starts in this series. The last three all finished with five or fewer combined runs. I expect another low-scoring affair. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. It's true that the Tigers have had plenty of recent success here vs. the White Sox and also that they've dominated the series overall the past few seasons. However, that's all "ancient history" and I look for the Sox to be the team which has the advantage in this evening's series opener.

Both teams are playing well right now and both earned important victories yesterday. This is another big game and series for both teams.

The Tigers, now with a small 2-game cushion for first place, want to put some distance between the Indians and White Sox, while making sure the Twins can't make it a 4-team race. Its arguably even bigger for the White Sox though, as they're 4.5 games back and know this series provides them with an excellent opportunity to close the gap.

Buehrle gets the call and he's pitching as well as ever. While he's "only" 7-5 this season, he's got a very solid 3.37 ERA and 1.234 WHIP. Additionally, the Sox are a lucrative 13-6 (+7.6) in his starts. Over his last three starts, Buehrle has a superb 2.05 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. The Sox were 3-0 in those games, with Buehrle going a minimum of seven innings in each. In fact, a closer look reveals that he's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 14 straight outings - if he does it again here, he'll become the first Sox pitcher in more than 20 years to allow three or fewer runs in 15 straight starts.

For the season, Buehrle is 4-1 with a terrific 2.47 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in nine home starts. The Sox were 7-2 (+4.8) in those games, including 7-0 the last seven. The Sox are 14-5 his last 19 here.

Also, note that Buehrle is also 17-9 with an excellent 3.22 lifetime ERA vs. the Tigers. The Sox are 10-3 in his 13 home starts vs. the Tigers, including 2-0 the past two seasons. Buehrle went a minimum of six complete innings in all 13 of those starts and allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of them. Today, he'll take on a Detroit team which is just 16-30 (-8.4) when listed as a road underdog in the +125 to +150 range, the past few seasons.

While Buerhle has been getting it done game after game, year after year, the Tigers will be relying on a starting pitcher (Duane Below) making just his second career big league start. He went only five innings in his debut, a 7-5 Detroit loss.

Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen said this of the way things are currently going for his team: "The ball is bouncing our way now. Every time somebody makes a mistake, we take advantage of it." With the veteran outpitching and outlasting the rookie, I expect things to continue to go Guillen's way for at least another day. *10

I'm playing on Atlanta and Cincy to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total. However, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring finale. I successfully played against the Braves in Beachy's last start. However, that was at Coors Field and I felt he might have some trouble in his first start there. While that proved to be the case, Beachy still has a stingy 3.12 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in six road starts, striking out 39 and walking only nine. While this isn't exactly an "easy" venue either, he will have the advantage of facing the Reds for the first time. Dontrelle Willis is back and has a solid 3.37 ERA in his two 2011 starts, both of which fell below the total. Those games had scores of 4-3 and 2-0. After Willis' last start, second baseman Brandon Phillips had this to say: "Willis pitched real good today. We just didn't come through for him. We just couldn't get it done, period." Willis has had some trouble vs. past Atlanta teams. However, this year's lineup has really struggled vs. southpaws. Indeed, the Braves are hitting a mere .214 vs. southpaw starters, averaging just 3.7 runs. While they did break out for 11 runs yesterday, keep in mind that the Reds had scored just 11 combined runs over their previous six games. During that stretch, they were batting a mere .195. The Braves have seen the UNDER go 11-8-2 the past few seasons, after allowing double-digit runs in their previous game. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. The Nationals won big in the opener and they also appeared to be in pretty good shape much of the way last night. The Dodgers erased deficits of 3-0 and 6-2 though and rallied for a 7-6 victory, scoring the winning run in the bottom of the 9th inning. I expect them to carry the positive momentum from that "thriller" into this afternoon's finale. More importantly, I expect them to have a significant edge on the mound. While the Nats have been better overall, they've really struggled on the road. They've dropped eight of 11 away from Washington and are now 21-33 on the road overall. (By comparison, the Dodgers' 24-28 home record doesn't seem quite so bad.) Rafael Furcal was the hero last night, while Trent Oeltjen scored the winning run. Oeltjen said this of Furcal's double and of the team's "mood" after the win: "That was awesome, Furky came through big at the end. He's been unlucky with some injuries this year, so it's huge for him and huge for this team to get us going. I hope we can take off from here and keep it going." Note that Furcal is 7 for 20 (.350) with a with a home run against Marquis. Also, note that Marquis has allowed nine runs in eight innings in his last two outings here, losing both. Marquis won last time out (vs. Houston) but still has a poor 5.87 ERA and 1.566 WHIP his last three starts, going 1-2. On the other hand, Billingsley has a solid 3.38 ERA and 1.078 WHIP his last three. He's been at his best at home, by far. In nine starts here, he's got a terrific 2.43 ERA. He's allowed just one run in 13 1/3 innings over his last two starts here, winning both. Billingsley has also dominated Washington. He's 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA vs. the Nats. He's beaten them in all three meetings at Dodger Stadium and I look for him to do it again this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Angels will likely be a fairly popular pick here. After all, they've got a better overall record and are currently in a divsional race. There also up against a pitcher with a 4-13 record. However, I feel that the Orioles are favored for good reason and that their 13-game loser is actually quite a lot better than his record indicates. Let's check it out. True, Guthrie's 4-13 record is pretty dismal. However, I believe he's a lot better than what his record suggests. I stated that last week, when I successfully played on the Orioles in Guthrie's start vs. Boston. Rather than repeat myself, as it still applies, here's an excerpt from that writeup: "Guthrie checks in with an ugly 13 losses on the season. He's a lot better than that record suggests though, as the Red Sox can vouch for. In two games (one start) against the Sox this year, Guthrie has allowed just one earned run through 9 1/3 innings of work. That translates to a 0.96 ERA. Guthrie didn't factor in the decision but the O's won his lone 2011 start against Boston and that was against Beckett. It should also be noted that Guthrie has also been much better in the evening (3.87 ERA) than the day, when he has a 5.33 ERA. Guthrie reportedly may get traded to a contender (Detroit?) and that may give him some added incentive to pitch well here - not that he should need any..." Guthrie went on to hold the Red Sox to two runs through seven complete innings, en route to a 6-2 victory. While they haven't seen him yet this season, the Angels also know how capable Guthrie is. In two 2010 starts against the Angels, Guthrie was 2-0 and allowed only three runs in 15 1/3 innings. The O's won by scores of 6-3 and 1-0. In the 15+ innings, Guthrie gave up just nine hits and walked only one batter. He outpitched Weaver the last time he faced LA, tossing eight shutout innings. Chatwood still has respectable numbers. He's 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA on the season. However, a closer look reveals a fairly high 1.582 WHIP, which means he's been allowing a relatively high number of baserunners. Worse, that number climbs all the way up to an obscene 2.218 the last three games. Not surprisingly, he's 0-2 and the Angels are 0-3 in those games, most recently a 7-0 loss. This is the O's last home game in the month of July. With Guthrie getting the better of Chatwood, I look for them to close out the month here a big winner. *10

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Tigers won big yesterday and are now 2-0 in the series. I expect the Twins to have the advantage this afternoon though. The first thing many will notice is that both starters have similar records. That part is true. Penny is 7-6. Baker is 7-5. A closer look reveals that Baker's numbers are considerably better though, particularly his home stats compared to Penny's road stats. While he hasn't pitched since July 5th, Baker's got a very solid 3.01 ERA and 1.175 WHIP overall. At home, he's 4-1 with a spectacular 1.97 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in seven starts, averaging 6 1/2 innings. In 45 innings here, he's got an impressive 46 K's with only 10 walks. He's 2-0 his last two and has allowed just one unearned run in those games. In fact, Baker is 4-0 his last five starts at Target Field and has allowed just one earned run in 36 1/3 innings, during that stretch! On the other hand, Penny has a 4.47 ERA and 1.414 WHIP. Worse, he's 3-4 with an awful 6.55 ERA and 1.632 WHIP on the road. Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said this of today's game: "We

I'm playing on Seattle and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series, both of which were played during the evening, have each been high-scoring. I expect a much lower-scoring affair for this afternoon's finale.

Romero has a very solid 3.25 ERA on the season and has seen the UNDER go 12-6-1 in his 19 starts. While his recent numbers aren't that great, keep in mind that his last three starts came against the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies. Those are three of the top teams in baseball, one of which will likely win the World Series. Now, he takes a major step down in class to face the Mariners.

The Mariners can't hit at the best of the times and they're particularly brutal in the afternoon AND against southpaws. Seattle hits only .212 vs. southpaws, averaging just 2.6 runs in those games. Also, the M's hit only .208 in day games, averaging a mere 2.7 runs.

Fister checks in with a stingy 3.18 ERA and 1.165 WHIP on the season. He's seen the UNDER go 12-5-2 in his 19 starts with each of his last three finishing with six or fewer runs.

Fister will face a Toronto team which also struggles to hit during the afternoon. The Jays hit only .233 during the afternoon, averaging only four runs in those games.

Fister has made two starts vs. the Jays. He has a 0.886 WHIP in those games and they both stayed below the total. They had scores of 5-0 and 3-2.

Romero has made two starts against the M's the past two seasons. They finished with scores of 4-3 in 2010 and 3-2 earlier this season.

The M's have seen the UNDER go 70-51-11 the past few seasons against southpaw starters, including 14-7-3 this year. I expect more of the same here. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Marlins were embarrassed yesterday and are now in danger of being swept. They haven't lost three in a row since the coaching change though and I expect them to bounce right back this afternoon.

Vazquez checks in with some pretty poor overall numbers. For the season, he's 6-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He's really gotten it together lately though and enters this afternoon's game on a roll. Over his last three starts, he's 2-0 (Marlins are 3-0) with a very solid 3.15 ERA and an outstanding 0.85 WHIP. Over those three starts, the veteran has 17 K's with only one walk.

McKeon said this of Vazquez: "He

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Rangers enter on a red hot roll and off another victory last night. That makes it 12 in a row. The Rangers have been getting it done with pitching, as was the case last night. While tonight's starter (Holland) has contributed to the streak, he's also struggled in this series. Additionally, the Rangers will now be going up against an elite pitcher. I expect the streak to finally come to an end here.

For starters, note that the Angels have been terrific at bouncing back, when coming off a shutout loss. They were last blanked on July 1st, losing 5-0 in the opening game of a 3-game set vs. the rival Dodgers. Despite facing a tough pitcher (Kershaw) in the next game, they responded with a 7-1 victory. Including that result, they're 17-8 (+6.5) the last 25 times that they were off a shutout loss, going 7-3 their last 10 in that situation.

True, Holland has been great recently. (He's off back to back shutouts.) However, lets not forget that he's 2-3 with a poor 4.75 ERA in six career starts against the Angels. In his last start here at Anaheim, he lasted only 3 2/3 innings, giving up six hits, three walks and four runs. He took the loss as the Angels won 7-4. For the season, Holland's 4.32 ERA and 1.407 WHIP is still only mediocre. In 118 2/3 innings pitched, he's walked 40 and given up 13 home runs.

Haren, on the other hand, is 10-6 with a stingy 2.75 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. At home, his ERA dips to 1.86 and his WHIP goes all the way down to 0.768. Those numbers are simply dominant. Haren has pitched 22 more innings than Holland but has walked less than half as many. (He also has more K's and has allowed less home runs.)

Also, note that Haren has an excellent 1.52 ERA in four starts against the Rangers, since he joined the Angels. He outlasted Holland back in May, as the Angels won 3-2.

The Angels are 11-5 (+4.4) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. They were one game back behind the Rangers at the Break and now suddenly find themselves five back. They need to "stop the bleeding" and I feel that Haren will be up to the task. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Padres won yesterday's opener by a score of 4-0. The Marlins are still 9-2 their last 11 though while the Padres are only 2-8 during the same stretch. With a red hot Nolasco on the mound, I look for the Marlins to bounce right back and return to their winning ways.

Yesterday notwithstanding, the Marlins tend to "take care of business" against weaker teams, at this time of the year. Even with yesterday's loss, they're still a profitable 52-33 the past few seasons, when facing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. That includes a 7-2 mark this season.

Both starters have been extremely sharp lately. Harang has a 0.95 ERA his last three starts. Remarkably, Nolasco's is even better. He's got a 0.78 ERA his last three. Both allowed two earned runs over those three games but Nolasco threw 23 innings to Harang's 19. (It should also be noted that two of Harang's three came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park while the third came at Dodger Stadium. Nolasco didn't have that advantage.)

While the recent numbers are similar, Nolasco has been much better against today's opponent than Harang has. Harang has a terrible 6.99 ERA and 1.805 WHIP in 10 starts vs Florida. His last start against the Marlins saw Harang give up eight runs in four innings. Florida won 10-2. On the other hand, Nolasco is 3-2 with a solid 3.72 ERA and 1.112 WHIP vs. the Padres. That includes a 3-0 mark with a terrific 2.25 ERA over his last four starts against them. I expect Nolasco to continue his success in this series and for the Marlins to get right back on track with a victory. *10

I'm playing on COLORADO. I lost with the Rockies (while winning with Arizona) last night but I'm willing to give them another shot here.

I played on the Rockies in Jimenez's last start. In that one, they beat Gallardo and the Brewers by a score of 12-3. Jimenez got the win, allowing two runs through six solid innings. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say of Jimenez, prior to that outing:

"At this time last year, Jimenez was coming off a win in the All Star game. This year, with a record of only 4-8, he didn't make the All Star team. That poor record has worked in our favor by keeping the line reasonable here. A closer look shows that Jimenez has been MUCH better recently than his overall record indicates. Last time out, Jimenez allowed just one run through eight outstanding innings. He gave up just five hits and had 8 K's with only one walk. Jimenez had this to say about his last start before the break: "It's really good when you finish on a high note. Especially with the kind of beginning I had, I struggled a lot, and to finish in this way is going to help me a lot for the second half. Not only me, but the whole team." Todd Helton said this of Jimenez: "He was dirty, no doubt about it. That was the old Ubaldo." Manager Jim Tracy added: "I think it's safe to say that tonight we won with pitching, and that was the Jimenez of a year ago. He was in complete control from the outset." Going back further shows that Jimenez has allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts. He allowed two or less in six of those. The Rockies are 7-3 his last 10 July home starts and Jimenez is 25-17 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his career after the All-Star break."

While Jimenez did lose vs. the Braves (at Atlanta) on July 4th, he still only allowed three runs, striking out nine and walking one. Including that outing, he's got a stellar 2.21 ERA in his last three starts vs. Atlanta. His lone 2010 start vs. the Braves saw him toss a complete game shutout.

Admittedly, Beachy has been very solid, particularly on the road. However, unlike Jimenez, he hasn't started since the All Star Break. In fact, his last start came back on July 8th. For a young pitcher that was going well, the long layoff likely didn't come at an ideal time. Also, starting at Colorado for the first time isn't always easy.

Jimenez should be motivated to continue to impress contenders interested in his services while the Rockies should be hungry to snap their winless streak and get this season's first win against the Braves. I expect them to bounce back and even the series. *10

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Red Sox continue to show that they can win both ways. A night after the a 1-0 extra-inning "pitching gem" victory, the offense scored eight runs in the eighth inning, en route to last night's 15-10 victory. I don't expect the Sox to score nearly so many runs this evening though, nor do I expect them to get the type of pitching that they received on Sunday. Let's take a closer look.

Guthrie checks in with an ugly 13 losses on the season. He's a lot better than that record suggests though, as the Red Sox can vouch for. In two games (one start) against the Sox this year, Guthrie has allowed just one earned run through 9 1/3 innings of work. That translates to a 0.96 ERA. Guthrie didn't factor in the decision but the O's won his lone 2011 start against Boston and that was against Beckett.

It should also be noted that Guthrie has also been much better in the evening (3.87 ERA) than the day, when he has a 5.33 ERA.

Guthrie reportedly may get traded to a contender (Detroit?) and that may give him some added incentive to pitch well here - not that he should need any.

Either way, I expect Guthrie to get some run support. The O's scored 10 runs yesterday and have now scored 39 over their past six games. More importantly, they'll also be facing Kyle Weiland, who they just rocked for six runs (in 4 innings) on 7/10. That was Weiland's only career start. He escaped with a no-decision but was left with a horrible 13.50 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP. Now, he has the misfortune of facing the very same team again.

You may recall that Weiland, who managed just 42 strikes in 78 pitches, hit Baltimore's Vlad Guerrero in the 7/10 game, causing Weiland and Red Sox manager Terry Francona to get ejected. (The fact that Guerrero is still out may further motivate the O's here.)

True, the Red Sox are tough. They're likely going to be at a disadvantage on the mound here though and lets not forget that they played a 16-inning game on Sunday night. It can sometimes take a couple of days but a game like that can have an effect.

The Red Sox are just 5-6 (-1.8) when playing on the road with a line in the -100 to -125 range. On the other hand, Baltimore is a more respectable 10-9 (+2.1) as a home underdog in the +100 to +125 range. Going back further finds Boston at 24-26 (-4.9) in that role the past few seasons and Baltimore at 32-30 (+5.4). With Guthrie improving his potential trade value, I expect the motivated O's to step up and score the minor upset. *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Both teams are off back to back victories. I expect the Diamondbacks to be the team which makes it three in a row.

The Brewers have enjoyed success here in the desert recently, as has Wolf. However, lets not forget that this year's Brewers are still only 18-31 on the road while the Diamondbacks are a far better 25-20 here at home. The Diamondbacks average 4.7 runs per game at home. The Brewers manage a mere 3.5 runs per game on the road, hitting only .234.

Note that Milwaukee, which is 5-13 (-7.3) as a road underdog in the +100 to +125 range, may not have Ryan Braun in the starting lineup again.

Wolf was NOT sharp vs the Diamondbacks on July 5th. He gave up 10 hits, walked four batters and gave up seven runs.

Collmenter, on the other hand, was excellent at Milwaukee, the following day. He allowed just three hits through six shutout innings.

Collmenter has a superb 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home. Wolf has been mediocre on the road and the Brewers are just 4-6 in his 10 road starts. I expect Collmenter to get the better of Wolf here as the Diamondbacks snap their home losing streak in this series. *10

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Braves bring the better record to the table and they're also currently the hotter team. Don't expect the Rockies to "go trough the motions" though. They got swept in a 4-game set at Atlanta recently and I expect them to be extremely motivated to get this series started off with a victory.

Hammel gets the call for Colorado. His overall numbers are certainly nothing to write home about. (He's 5-8 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.382 WHIP.) He has shown real signs of turning the corner lately with a pair of quality starts. He closed June out by limiting the White Sox to two runs through seven innings, here at Coors. That was followed by a poor outing vs the Royals. However, he bounced back with another strong effort last time out, limiting the Nationals to two runs and five hits, through 6 1/3 innings.

Note that Hammel has been working with his pitching coach (Bob Apodaca) and has recently adjusted his windup. He's now got his hands moving above his head, which is creating better rhythm and control for his fastball. He noted: "I needed to change something up."

Hammel did get roughed up at Atlanta last year but responded with a much better effort in his last start vs. the Braves, which was here at Colorado. He allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings in that one, striking out six and walking one. He didn't factor in the decision but Colorado won by a score of 5-4.

Lowe has had some good second halves in the past. However, he's getting long in the tooth and his first half numbers (5-7 4.30 ERA and 1.381 WHIP) are practically identical to what Hammel brings to the table. Unlike Hammel, he's not off a quality start last time out though, as he gave up 10 hits and four runs, while suffering a loss.

Prior to that, Lowe beat these same Rockies. He wasn't exactly dominant though, as he allowed three runs in just 5 1/3 innings, while allowing eight Rockies (5 hits, 3 walks) to reach base.

I feel that may prove to be one of the Rockies' advantages here. They just saw Lowe, less than two weeks ago - while Hammel hasn't faced the Braves since last summer. Often, little edges are the the difference between winning and losing and having a recent look at a pitcher can sometimes provide hitters with a slight edge.

While the Braves score 3.8 runs and hit .222 on the road, the Rockies hit .280 and average 5.5 runs at home.

The Rockies are 7-3 the last 10 times that they were listed as home favorites of -125 or less. They're also 5-2 (+2.6) against the Braves here the past couple of seasons. Looking for some "payback" and to climb back above .500 here at home, I look for them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

I'm playing on Boston and Tampa to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. However, I look for a pitcher's duel in tonight's finale.

Beckett has been terrific. For the season, he's 8-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.946 WHIP. The UNDER is a profitable 12-4-1 in his 17 starts overall, including a lucrative 8-2 on the road. His last road start saw Beckett allow only one run through eight innings, en route to earning a 2-1 victory.

Beckett has also been dominant against Tampa, particularly recently. His lone start against the Rays this season finished with a score of 3-0. Over his last three starts vs. the Rays, he's allowed just one earned run (2 runs overall) through 21 complete innings.

Niemann has been tough lately, too. He's allowed one run in each of his last two starts. Both finished below the total with identical 5-1 scores. Most recently, he limited the Yankees to one run through 7 1/3 innings.

Niemann hasn't faced the Red Sox this season. He struggled in his last start at Fenway but was excellent in his last home start in this series. In that game he allowed just one unearned run on four hits, through six complete innings. He got the "W" in a 3-2 Rays' victory.

Despite the high-scoring results in the first two games, the Rays have still seen the UNDER go an excellent 30-13 at home. As for the Red Sox, they've seen the UNDER go 29-19-4 the past few seasons, when listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. More of the same tonight. *9

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks finished on the right side of last night's pitcher's duel. Their 3-2 victory snapped a 3-game losing streak while also putting an end to the Dodgers 5-game winning streak. Now the Diamondbacks have the momentum in their favor.

They're playing at home and arguably have more to play for - they're in the thick of the division race while the bankrupt Dodgers have (arguably) been out of it for sometime. Perhaps most importantly, the Diamondbacks should have a significant edge on the mound.

Hudson has been a bit part of Arizona's success. Overall, he's 9-5 with a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.248 WHIP. He's been his best here in the desert. In nine home starts, he's gone 5-2 with a stingy 3.05 ERA and 1.123 WHIP. He's averaged better than seven innings per start here and the Diamondbacks are a profitable 7-2 (+5) in those games. He's 5-0 with a 2.77 ERA his last seven starts here.

Hudson has an impressive 54/11 K/w ratio here and has only given up four home runs in 65 home innings. He's a perfect 6-0 his last 11 outings.

On the other hand, Lilly is 6-9 with a poor 4.79 ERA on the season. He was solid last time out but that was at home against light-hitting San Diego. He's still got an ugly 5.74 ERA his last three starts. Before the win vs. the Padres, he had lost four straight decisions while compiling an awful 8.71 ERA. In his last road outing, Lilly was rocked for nine hits and six runs, lasting only 4 2/3 innings.

Lilly has averaged only 5.5 innings per road start and has allowed seven home runs in 49 road innings.

While the Diamondbacks are 12-7 (+4.8) in Hudson's starts, the Dodgers are only 8-11 (-3.3) in Lilly's. The Diamondbacks are 10-2 in Hudson's last 12 home starts, dating back to last September, including a perfect 7-0 his last seven here.

In addition to being a better pitcher than Lilly this season, Hudson is also capable of helping himself with the bat. In fact, among pitchers with at least 30 at-bats this season, Hudson ranks first in RBIs average AND on-base percentage. (He's hitting .333 and has 9 RBIs!)

Lilly is 3-6 with a brutal 5.19 ERA vs. Arizona. He's 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA the last four of those. On the other hand, Hudson is 1-0 with an extremely stingy 2.08 ERA and a superb 0.451 WHIP vs. LA. (He limited the Dodgers to two hits through 8 2/3 innings in his lone start against them.)

The Dodgers entered the weekend averaging 3.7 runs per game while the Diamondbacks average 4.5 runs per game.

The Diamondbacks are a lucrative 22-8 (+8.8) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range, including 7-2 (+3.8) their last nine in that role.

All things considered, I feel the price is more than fair. I look for Hudson to get the better of Lilly and for the Diamondbacks to string together consecutive victories. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Angels entered the weekend as the hotter team and they won the first game of yesterday's double-header. The A's bounced back with a dramatic win in the bottom of the 10th inning in the night-cap though. That made for an extra long day. With the A's finishing the final game in such positive fashion, I look for them to be "fresher" this afternoon. More importantly, I look for them to have an edge in the starting pitching department - arguably even a bigger factor than normal, the afternoon following a double-header.

LA's Torri Hunter, who went 0 for 8 yesterday, said this of losing the second game: "It's a tough loss..."

Angels' manager Mike Scioscia said "We didn't hit the ball well all afternoon and we're lucky to come out with a split."

Gio Gonzalez gets the call and he's been superb, particularly here at home. For the season, he's 8-6 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.274 WHIP. At home, he's a sizzling 6-2 with an outstanding 2.08 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. In 10 starts here, he's averaging 6.5 innings per outing and has only given up four home runs in 65 innings. During that span, he's got an impressive 70 K's.

Gonzalez, who blew away the only hitter (Jay Bruce) he faced in the All Star game, is 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA during the day. These numbers are no 1-year fluke either. Last season, he was 7-1 with a 2.17 ERA during the day and 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA at home.

Last year, opposing batters hit only .199 against Gonzalez here at Oakland. This year, they're only hitting .189 against him here. Speaking of ".189." Gonzalez has a 1.89 ERA his last three starts. In his last two home starts, he's gone 2-0 and allowed one earned run in 15 combined innings. The A's are 6-1 his last seven starts here and 13-4 his last 17 here.

Admittedly, Pineiro has also been solid. (I won with the Angels in his Independence Day start.) However, with a 3.70 ERA and 1.422 WHIP his numbers aren't in the same class as Gonzalez's numbers. Those numbers could easily be worse too, as opposing hitters are batting .299 against him on the season including .332 for left-handed hitters.

The Angels are already 0-2 in Pineiro's two starts against the A's this season. His teams are an ugly 4-9 his last 13 starts vs. the A's, including 1-4 his last five here at Oakland.

On the other hand, the A's are 5-2 in Gonzalez's seven career starts vs. the Angels, including 2-0 the last two here at Oakland. The A's won those two games by a combined score of 22-0 (14-0 and 8-0!) with Gonzalez allowing just five hits through 13 shutout innings. Look for Gonzalez to get the better of Pineiro and for the A's to follow up last night's thriller with another big win here. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA. I won with the Rays yesterday and I'm coming right back with them this afternoon. The Rays scored a whopping nine runs yesterday. While all those runs were certainly welcome for a team which has struggled to hit at home, the Rays likely won't need that many here. Not with Shields on the mound.

While he often hasn't received much run support, Shields has been superb all season. Last time out, pitching at Yankee Stadium, he allowed just four hits and a single unearned run. Yet, suffered a very tough 1-0 loss. That gives him a 2.33 ERA in 19 starts this season. Despite a few recent tough losses, the Rays were still a profitable 12-7 (+2.7) in those games.

Shields has been particularly stingy at home. In nine starts here, he's got a 2.05 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. He's averaged a very healthy 7.8 innings per start here and has an extremely impressive 74 K's in 70 1/3 innings, walking just 15.

It should also be noted that Shields has a terrific 1.41 ERA in eight daytime starts. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .189 in those games.

Shields should finally get some run support here. Lackey was tough last time out and has shown signs of coming around lately. That said, he's still 6-8 with a terrible 6.83 ERA in 14 starts this season. It should also be noted that Lackey has a brutal 8.65 ERA in seven daytime starts this season. Opposing hitters are batting a whopping .308 in those games. Here he'll face a Tampa lineup which gained some much needed confidence with yesterday's "outburst."

With yesterday's victory, the Rays are now a profitable 36-20 (+8.2) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. That includes a lucrative 14-6 mark (+5.7) this season.

The Rays are also now 7-3 the last 10 times that they were a host in this series. I expect Shields to get the better of Lackey and for the Rays to follow up yesterday's big win with another important one this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on Boston and Tampa Bay to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished well above the total. I'm expecting a much lower-scoring contest this afternoon though.

While he often hasn't received much run support, Shields has been superb all season. Last time out, pitching at Yankee Stadium, he allowed just four hits and a single unearned run. Yet, suffered a very tough 1-0 loss. That gives him a 2.33 ERA in 19 starts this season. It also brought the UNDER to a lucrative 13-5-1 in his 19 starts. Before last week's 1-0 game, his previous two starts finished with scores of 3-2 and 4-3.

Shields has been particularly stingy at home. In nine starts here, he's got a 2.05 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. He's averaged a very healthy 7.8 innings per start here and has an extremely impressive 74 K's in 70 1/3 innings, walking just 15. When combining Shields' dominance here with the Rays' tendency to struggle at the plate here this year, we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 8-1 in Shields' nine starts here.

Admittedly, Lackey's overall numbers are pretty bad. However, he's shown real signs of turning the corner. Last time out, he limited Baltimore to three hits through 6 2/3 shutout innings, earning a 4-0 victory. Also, in his last road start, Lackey held the big-hitting Phillies to two runs through 7 2/3 innings. That one finished with a score of 2-1.

Shields dominated the Red Sox (4-0 win) earlier this season and has seen the UNDER go 12-6-1 against them for his career. Lackey has been mostly solid vs. the Rays for his career. His most recent start against them came last season, also against Shields. That one stayed below the total.

While the Red Sox have been a profitable 'over' team at Fenway this season, the UNDER is a respectable 24-18-4 (57%) when they play on the road. The UNDER is also a solid 19-14-2 (58%) when they're off a loss.

Meanwhile, even with yesterday's outburst, the UNDER remains an outstanding 30-12-1 here. That includes a 14-4-1 UNDER mark when the Rays have been listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Shields "doing his thing," I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. These same two pitchers squared off against each other back in 2009. Price got the better of Miller in that 6/28/09 game, leading the Rays to a 5-2 victory. I expect him to get the better of Miller again, in this evening's all southpaw affair.

At first glance, Miller's 2011 stats may appear better than Price's stats. Miller is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA. Price is 8-7 with a 3.70 ERA. However, that doesn't tell the entire story. For starters, Price has made 19 starts while Miller has made only four. So, Miller's sample size is quite small.

Note that Miller's four starts came against San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore. All four of those teams went into the All Star Break averaging four or fewer runs per game. While the Rays aren't hitting as well as they'd like, they still enter tonight's game averaging 4.2 runs per game (more than any of those four teams) and that number climbs to 4.6 against southpaw starters. Note that

Miller's teams are still just 5-7 his last 12 starts. Worse, Miller's teams are an awful 5-13 his last 18 road starts. On the other hand, the Rays are 12-8 in Price's last 20 home starts.

Looking further at this season's numbers shows that Price's WHIP is much better than Miller's and that Price also tends to go deeper into games. Miller is averaging just 5.7 innings per start. Price is averaging a much healthier 6.8 innings per start. Price has a stingy WHIP of 1.085. Miller, on the other hand, has a 1.588 WHIP.

Additionally, Price's K/W ratio is FAR superior. Price has an impressive 125 K's in 129 innings, walking a mere 26. At home, he has an outstanding 72 K's in 60 2/3 innings. Conversely, Miller has only 13 K's on the season, walking 11. In his last start - his only one against an AL opponent - he walked four batters and struck out zero. (In Price's last home start, he had 12 K's with only 1 walk.)

It should also be noted that Price will be supported by a Tampa bullpen which has a combined 7-1 record with a terrific 2.80 ERA at home. On the other hand, the Boston bullpen is 3-5 with a 3.87 ERA on the road.

Despite dropping two of three against the Sox here last month, the Rays are still 6-3 the last nine times that they were a host in this series. If motivation counts for anything, the Rays could potentially be "hungrier" here. Not only did they drop two of three here earlier but they lost two in a row before the break and are chasing Boston in the standings.

The Rays are a profitable 35-20 (+7.2) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. That includes a lucrative 13-6 mark (+4.7) this season. With Price outpitching and outlasting Miller, I look for the Rays to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I successfully played against the Reds when Cueto faced the Cardinals 10 days ago. However, that was at St. Louis and Cueto was opposed by Chris Carpenter, who I expected to pitch well. Cueto was great but Carpenter was better and I was able to cash my ticked on the Cards. Tonight's matchup, however, is far more favorable for Cueto, as he's likely to get much better run support than he saw on on Independence Day.

Not only are the Reds a much better hitting team at home but they're now matched up against Westbrook instead of Carpenter. Note that they just rocked Westbrook for seven runs (3 HRs!) in 4 1/3 innings eight days ago. For the season, Westbrook has an ugly 5.35 ERA and 1.608 WHIP.

Cueto's numbers are simply outstanding. He's 5-3 on the season but could easily be better as he's got a terrific 1.96 ERA and 1.004 WHIP. At home, he's 2-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Note that Cueto did beat the Cards here back in May. He allowed 0 earned runs through 7 2/3 innings and earned a 7-3 victory.

While Westbrook averages 5.4 innings per start, Cueto is averaging a much better 6.9 innings per start.

The Cards are a money-burning 103-87 (-21.9) their last 200 divisional games. On the other hand, during the same stretch, the Reds are a highly profitable 121-83 (+38.1) in divisional games. The Reds swept the Cards here in May. With Cueto outpitching and outlasting Westbrook, I look for them to start this series with another important victory. *10

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Brewers have a better overall record than the Rockies. However, the Rockies' 22-22 home mark is actually much stronger than the Brewers' 16-29 mark on the road. Note that the Rockies have won two of their three July home games thus far and that they're a solid 7-4 here since mid June. They're also a commanding 14-4 the last 18 times that they hosted the Brewers. I expect them to improve on those numbers this evening.

At this time last year, Jimenez was coming off a win in the All Star game. This year, with a record of only 4-8, he didn't make the All Star team. That poor record has worked in our favor by keeping the line reasonable here. A closer look shows that Jimenez has been MUCH better recently than his overall record indicates.

Last time out, Jimenez allowed just one run through eight outstanding innings. He gave up just five hits and had 8 K's with only one walk. Jimenez had this to say about his last start before the break: "It's really good when you finish on a high note. Especially with the kind of beginning I had, I struggled a lot, and to finish in this way is going to help me a lot for the second half. Not only me, but the whole team."

Todd Helton said this of Jimenez: "He was dirty, no doubt about it. That was the old Ubaldo."

Manager Jim Tracy added: "I think it's safe to say that tonight we won with pitching, and that was the Jimenez of a year ago. He was in complete control from the outset."

Going back further shows that Jimenez has allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts. He allowed two or less in six of those. The Rockies are 7-3 his last 10 July home starts and Jimenez is 25-17 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his career after the All-Star break.

Admittedly, Gallardo can also be tough. Also, like Jimenez, he was pitching well before the break. However, like many Brewers, he's typically a lot better at his home park and that's where his recent success has come. When pitching at Milwaukee, Gallardo has gone 7-1 with a 3.23 ERA. On the other hand, when pitching on the road, he's just 3-4 with a 4.39 ERA. That includes an 0-2 mark his last two road starts.

In 64 home innings, Gallardo has only allowed four home runs, while issuing 20 walks. However, in 53 1/3 road innings, he's given up nine home runs and walked 24.

That's not just a one year deal for Gallardo either. For his career, he's got a very solid 3.30 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at home but a mediocre 4.12 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. For his career, opposing hitters have hit .230 against him at home and 2.56 on the road.

Jimenez has also been more successful in this series. While Gallardo is 0-3 with a terrible 5.85 ERA vs. Colorado, Jimenez is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA vs. Milwaukee. I expect Jimenez to continue his recent strong pitching and for the Rockies to start the series by continuing their recent homefield dominance in this series. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants got a gem from Tim Lincecum and earned an important victory last night. With Matt Cain on the mound, I fully expect them to follow it up by heading into the break with another victory.

Lincecum is still considered by most to be the team ace. However, Cain has arguably been the team's best starter this season. For the season, he's 7-5 with a 3.22 ERA. In eight home starts, those numbers dip to a 2.81 ERA and 1.006 WHIP. The Giants were a profitable 6-2 (+3.2) in those games.

While Cain suffered a rare loss last time out, he'd been 4-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his previous six starts. This is his chance to prove to the national audience that he's every bit as capable as any pitcher they'll see on Tuesday.

Pelfrey is off a a rare road win last time out. Before reading too much into that, keep in mind that he's still 2-7 with an awful 6.05 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in his 11 road starts. The Mets were an awful 2-9 (-6.4) in those games.

Pelfrey has had some success vs. the Giants. However, a closer look shows that he's perfect against the Giants at New York but that he lost his lone start here at San Francisco. Coincidentally, that (5/17/09) start came against Matt Cain. Cain outdueled Pelfrey in that one, en route to a 2-0 Giants' victory.

Including that outing, the Giants are 3-0 in Cain's last three starts vs. the Mets. Cain is 2-0 with a stellar 2.21 ERA in those three games. The Giants have been outstanding as home favorites in this range. I expect Cain to outpitch Pelfrey once again, leading to another victory for the home team. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals have lost the first two games of this series and three straight overall. They've still had a solid first half though as a win here will get them to .500, heading into the break. Even with the losses in the first two games, they're also still a terrific 27-18 at home, far better than Colorado's 21-25 mark on the road. I expect them to have the edge this afternoon and look for them to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

Zimmerman is in much better current form that Chacin. Even off a rare mediocre start (4 runs in 6 innings) he's still got a superb 1.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his last three starts.

In nine daytime starts, Zimmerman has a 2.53 ERA.

On the other hand, Chacin has a 4.89 ERA in six daytime starts. He's also got an ugly 5.94 ERA and 1.80 WHIP his last three starts.

Control has been a major issue of late for Chacin. In addition to allowing four home runs, over those three games, a span of 16 2/3 innings, Chacin has walked 15 batters, while striking out only 16. That's practically a walk an inning. Obviously, that's asking for trouble.

Last time out, he's reportedly been dealing with tightness in his forearm. Perhaps that explains why he walked six in five innings!

Speaking of struggling, Chacin also got destroyed in his only start vs. Washington. In that outing, he gave up six runs in five innings, en route to taking a 14-6 loss.

I expect Zimmerman to get the better of Chacin as the Nats head into the break with a victory. *10

I'm playing on Chicago and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. How about those Pirates. With another win yesterday, they're now 46-42 on the season and a serious contender in the NL Central. No matter what happens the rest of this series, they'll have a winning record at the break. Personally, I don't know (or care) whether or not they'll win again this afternoon. However, I do feel confident that I can expect to see a well-pitched affair.

Correia has quietly been getting done all season and has been a big part of Pittsburgh's success. Indeed, he's already got 11 wins on the season. Last time out, he allowed two runs through six solid innings, striking out six and walking only one.

The Cubs know how tough Correia can be. Indeed, Correia is 3-0 with a stingy 3.31 ERA in six career starts against Chicago. He's been particularly tough his last few starts against the Cubs, allowing just two earned runs in 19 1/3 combined innings. He last faced Chicago in late May and allowed just four hits through 7 1/3 shutout innings in that one. Correia earned the "W" as the Pirates won by a score of 4-2.

Later in that same late May series, Dempster got some payback for the Cubs. In that 5/29 game, which was his last start vs. the Pirates, Dempster allowed only four hits and two runs, through six complete innings. The Cubs won 3-2.

Dempster's overall numbers still aren't that good but he comes in with plenty of confidence. Last time out, he went toe-to-toe against Tim Lincecum and allowed just three hits and one run through eight superb innings. That one finished with a score of 2-1.

While we saw some late fireworks last night, the bullpens have been a strength for both teams through the first half. Chicago relievers entered the series with a combined 3.26 ERA on the road this season, one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing first half. Pittsburgh relievers entered the series with a combined 2.74 ERA at home.

Even with yesterday's opener finishing above the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 24-12 the past few seasons, when these teams have faced each other. Games here have been fairly low-scoring all year and I look for that to be the case again here. *10 Main Event (WGN)

I'm playing on CHICAGO. With five runs in the bottom of the first yesterday, it appeared the White Sox were in good shape to finally beat the Twins. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, as the Twins rallied for another victory. The Sox aren't about to roll over though and I expect the veteran Mark Buehrle to lead them to a much-needed win.

Buehrle hasn't been getting the "W's" his last few outings. He continues to pitch well though and the White Sox continue to win when he starts. They're 3-0 his last three starts and a profitable 11-6 (+5.6) on the season.

While Buehrle has been solid at practically every venue, he's been particularly tough here at home. In eight home starts, he's gone 4-1 with an outstanding 2.83 ERA, averaging nearly seven innings per start. The Sox are 6-2 (+3.8) in his starts here.

While Duensing has also pitched well lately, the Twins are still just 3-5 in his road starts. Duensing is 2-4 with a 3.91 ERA in those games. Overall, he's 6-7 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.459 WHIP, which is nothing special.

Buehrle suffered a very tough loss in his lone start against the Twins this season. In that 6/16 game, he gave up only three hits and one run through seven innings - but lost by a score of 1-0.

For all their recent struggles in the series, the Sox are still 8-4 the last 12 times that Buehrle pitched at home vs. the Twins. Buehrle allowed one earned run or less in seven of those 12 games. I expect the veteran to "do his thing" again this afternoon and for the Sox to finally provide him with the necessary run support to return to the "W" column. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. The Dodgers snapped their skid in convincing fashion last night, closing out their series against the Mets with a 6-0 win. That was a much-needed victory and with an edge on the mound, I look for them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's contest.

Billingsley is in superb form. He's 2-1 with an outstanding 1.86 ERA and 0.983 WHIP his last three starts. He's almost always tough at home. In eight starts here, he's got an impressive 2.81 ERA and 1.227 WHIP, allowing just three home runs. In 51 innings here, he's got 52 K's with only 19 walks.

While Billingsley is currently pitching well, the same cannot be said of Latos. Over his last three starts, he's got a very poor 5.09 ERA and 1.698 WHIP. Latos is a pitcher who benefits from pitching at Petco Park and who struggles on the road. He's 2-4 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in seven road starts.

Note that Latos also prefers pitching in the day. He's 3-3 with a solid 3.09 ERA in the afternoon but 2-6 with an ugly 4.97 ERA at night. He's given up one home run in the day but eight in the evening.

Billingsley hasn't gotten any run support in his recent games against the Padres. That should change tonight though. Last night was a "breakout game" for the offense and opposing hitters are batting better than .270 against Latos on the road.

The Dodgers are still an impressive 99-73 (+15.5) in divisional play the past few seasons and I look for them to get things started with a victory here. *10 (Feast)

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I lost with the White Sox yesterday. That won't stop me from coming right back with them today. Let's check out tonight's matchup.

These two starters have very similar ERAs. However, a closer look at some of the 'other' stats shows that Floyd has (arguably) been better. Floyd has an WHIP of 1.196 as a starter. Blackburn has a 1.396 WHIP. Blackburn has averaged 6.2 innings per start. Floyd has averaged 6.7 innings per start. Floyd has 77 K's to 28 walks. Blackburn has 54 K's to 29 walks.

While those stats are all "close," there's no debating the fact that Floyd has been much better than Blackburn the last couple of outings and therefore enters tonight's contest in much better current form.

Last start, Floyd allowed three runs through seven complete innings. He had eight K's and one walk. In his previous start, Floyd allowed just two runs, also going seven complete innings.

On the other hand, Blackburn gave up six earned runs in just four innings last time out. He was even worse in his previous start. In that one, Blackburn allowed eight runs (seven earned) in just 4 1/3 innings, giving up a whopping 13 hits. That translates to an 0-2 record with a 9.42 ERA, over those two starts.

True, Blackburn has pitched well in the series and the Twins have dominated the Sox. Blackburn's confidence level figures to be pretty low here right now though and the Twins' "dominance" should only provide further motivation for Chicago here. The Sox simply can't afford to keep losing to this team.

As Chicago's Juan Pierre noted: "They can be beat..."

The last time that the Sox had lost three straight games (6/18) they responded with a shutout victory. Floyd may not blank the Twins tonight but I expect him to do enough (and receive enough support) to help the Sox snap their current 3-game slide. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. I expect the Dodgers to have a significant advantage in the pitching department for Thursday's finale.

After a sensational start, Dillon Gee has cooled off. He's 1-2 with a poor 5.82 ERA and terrible 1.706 WHIP his last three starts. He was recently quoted as saying that he's been battling through a "patch of dead arm." Not exactly a ringing endorsement or vote of confidence.

On the other hand, Kershaw is 2-1 with a solid 3.00 ERA and excellent 0.792 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's got an extremely impressive 138 K's in 122 innings, walking only 33. In his last three starts, he has 32 K's with only two walks!

Kershaw has been especially tough at home. In fact, in 10 starts here, he's gone 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.873 WHIP. He tossed complete games in each of his last two starts here, earning 3-2 and 4-0 victories.

Kershaw has also dominated the Mets. In four starts against them, he's 3-0 with an outstanding 1.35 ERA.

The Mets are an ugly 15-31 (-10.7) the past few seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. During the same stretch, the Dodgers enter Wednesday's action with a solid 43-28 (+5) mark as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Kershaw getting the better of Gee, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Twins have dominated the White Sox recently, even here at Chicago. That should only provide the Sox with added motivation here though. With Humber on the mound, I expect them to have the advantage and look for them to start the series with a victory.

Pitching coach Don Cooper had this to say of Humber: "He's an All-Star for us."

No kidding! Humber has gone 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the season. At home those numbers are even better. He's got a 2.52 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in seven starts here. Lately, he's been superb. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings. Including that gem, he's got a 1.69 ERA his last three starts.

Humber did face the Twins once in relief, but they're not familiar with him, as this will be his first start in the series.

While Humber will have the advantage of starting against Minnesota for the first time, the Sox are very familiar with Pavano. Admittedly, Pavano was very sharp against them a few weeks ago. That was at Minnesota though and he's really struggled on the road. In fact, in 10 road starts he's just 2-5 with an ugly 5.34 ERA. Note that Pavano gave up five runs in five innings, including three home runs, in his last start here at Chicago. He got the win but with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in that game, certainly didn't deserve it.

The Twins got rocked by a 12-5 score yesterday. They're just 2-7 (-5.2) the last nine times that they allowed double-digits in runs. The Twins are also just 15-31 (-13.4) when coming off a loss, overall. Facing Humber and a highly motivated White Sox team and given Pavano's struggles on the road, I expect those numbers to get even worse. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. After a narrow 1-0 win on Monday, the Phillies hammered Florida by a score of 14-1 yesterday. Today, however, I expect the Marlins to have the advantage and for them to step up and avoid the series sweep.

The Phillies aren't one dimensional, as they are strong in a number of areas. That said, with the likes of Halladay, Lee and Hamels in the rotation, it all starts for them in the starting pitching department. They usually have an advantage in that area. When they don't, they become beatable.

Note that the Phillies are "only" 23-18 (+0.8) on the road (solid numbers but not nearly as good as their home numbers) and that they'll still be without starting center-fielder Shane Victorino.

Today, I expect the Marlins to be the team with the edge in the starting pitching department. Determined to avoid the sweep and motivated to avenge yesterday's embarrassing loss, I also believe the Marlins may prove to be a little "hungrier." Lets check it out.

Anibal Sanchez gets the call for the home team. Sanchez checks in with a 6-2 record and 3.30 ERA overall. In 109 innings, he's got an extremely impressive 111 Ks and only 33 walks. At home, Sanchez's numbers are even better. In eight home starts, Sanchez is 3-0 with a stellar 2.75 ERA and WHIP. He's allowed one run in each of his last two starts here, striking out 14 and walking one. Note that he also has a stingy 2.77 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies this season.

On the other hand, Kendrick has a 4.80 ERA in four starts, including a horrid 7.50 ERA in two road starts. He was fortunate to get a no-decision last time out, as he allowed six runs. After that start, Charlie Manuel was quoted as saying: "He pitched a Kyle Kendrick game..." If allowing six runs is "pitching a Kyle Kendrick game," one wonders how long Kendrick will stick around in the rotation. Either way, I don't expect him to be able to match what Sanchez will be bringing to the table.

The Marlins have fared well as home favorites in this range in recent seasons. They're also a lucrative 15-10 (+8) the last 25 times that they allowed double-digits in runs in their previous game. With Sanchez getting the better of Kendrick, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Diamondbacks have taken the first two meetings of this series. The Brewers are still an outstanding 29-13 at home though. With Gallardo on the mound for this afternoon's finale, I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

Gallardo has made nine home starts. He's gone 6-1 with a 3.47 ERA in those games. The Brewers were a profitable 7-2 (+3.8) with Gallardo allowing just three home runs in those nine games. Gallardo's last home start resulted in an 11-1 victory. He allowed one run through seven complete innings. Going back further finds the Brewers at 9-2 in Gallardo's last 11 home stats, 14-6 his last 20.

Gallardo should be thrilled to see today's opponent. In three starts against Arizona, he's gone 3-0 with an excellent 1.06 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. His lone home start vs. the Diamondbacks resulted in a 10-1 victory.

Collmenter has also proven capable and I believe he's better than his recent numbers suggest. That said, he's 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.528 WHIP his last three starts, which doesn't compare favorably to what Gallardo brings to the table.

The Diamondbacks are 43-73 (-28.9) in day games the past few seasons and they entered Tuesday's action hitting only .245 on the road.

The Brewers are 9-4 (+3.8) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Given Gallardo's success at home and dominance of the Diamondbacks, I feel the price is fair and expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. I went 3-0 in Cardinal games over the long weekend. After successfully playing "against" the Cards on both Saturday and Sunday, I came back and played "on" them in yesterday's victory. Today's matchup is even more favorable and I'm backing the Cards again.

As of this writing, there's a chance that Albert Pujols could be back in the lineup. (He'll be evaluated this morning, before a final decision is made.) On Monday, Pujols had this to say: "I can't wait to get back on the field. Hopefully, it can be tomorrow. If it's not, whenever the time comes will be the right time to play."

Naturally, I'd welcome Pujols' return. However, that's certainly not what I'm basing my selection on. My position is that I'm expecting him to not play and if he does, it'll be a welcome bonus. (Pujols, one of the best hitters of all-time, was batting .343 with nine homers in his last 19 games, prior to the injury. He's also got great numbers vs. Volquez)

Rather, my selection is based on a number of other reasons, primarily the starting pitching matchup and the venue.

Garcia has been lights out at home. In seven starts here, he's 4-1 with a tremendous 0.88 ERA and 0.838 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the Cards were a profitable 6-1 (+4.6) in those games. Garcia has also won all four of his starts against the Reds, posting a 3.70 ERA.

While Garcia wasn't at his very best against AL opponents (4.08 ERA last three starts) he's still been much better than Volquez recently. Indeed, Volquez has a horrible 6.32 ERA and 1.788 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, the Reds are 3-6 (-2.6) when he's started on the road with Volquez posting an awful 5.85 ERA and 1.775 WHIP. Note that Volquez is averaging only 4.4 innings in those starts, too.

While the Cards have seen Volquez once this season, the Reds haven't seen Garcia since last year. Note that Volquez has a poor 4.94 ERA in six starts vs. the Cards; St. Louis won four of those games.

The Cards are 20-12 (+5.1) off a shutout win the past few seasons. With or without Pujols in the lineup, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals lost badly yesterday. However, with Jordan Zimmerman on the mound, I expect them to bounce back in a big way this afternoon. With a 0.84 ERA his last three starts, Zimmerman is among the hottest pitchers in the league. Over that 21+ inning span, he's only allowed two earned runs. Going back further finds Zimmerman with a 0.85 ERA his last six starts. The Cubs haven't seen him since 2009, either.

For the season, Zimmerman has a stellar 2.63 ERA and 1.072 WHIP. He averages better than six innings per start and has only allowed four home runs in 16 games.

He's recorded a club-record 11 straight "quality" starts and he's allowed two runs or less in eight straight. Indeed, he's much better than his w/l record indicates.

Zimmerman was quoted as saying: "I'm throwing the ball pretty well right now and I just want to keep it going."

The Nats catch a break as Ryan Dempster got scratched - *although I'd still like the Nats w/ Zimmerman even if Dempster was pitching.

That means that Casey Coleman is expected to get the start for the Cubs. The last time Coleman started was back on May 25 and he got rocked for six runs in 1 1/3 innings. He subsequently got sent down to Triple-A (Iowa) where he proceeded to compile a 4.91 ERA in three starts. Not exactly impressive.

While the Cubs are 15-24 on the road, the Nats are 24-15 at home. With a significant edge in the pitching department and highly motivated to beat a team that has long given them trouble, I expect the Nats to finally provide Zimmerman with some support and to celebrate the holiday in style. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on LA and LA to finish UNDER the total. The first game of this series finished below the total, a 5-0 victory for the Dodgers. Yesterday's game was a little higher-scoring, as the Angels returned the favor with a 7-1 victory. Tonight's game figures to be a "pitchers' duel."

Billingsley's overall numbers aren't that great but he's been very sharp his last two outings. He allowed one run and six hits in 5 1/3 innings to beat Detroit 6-1 on 6/21. He followed tht up with even better numbers Monday against Minnesota. In that outing, he gave up just four hits, through six shutout innings. (That's one run in his last 11 1/3 innings, which translates to a 0.79 ERA!)

Billingsley's career numbers vs. the Angels aren't great either. However, he did deliver a quality start (3 earned runs in 6 innings) in his last start here at Anaheim and this Angel team doesn't hit nearly as well as past versions, particularly here at home. Indeed, the Angels enter today's action averaging only 3.3 runs here at home, while hitting just .243 as a team.

Santana has quite a poor (3-8!) overall record. However, he's pitched much better than that record indicates. He's allowed two runs in each of his last three starts, going eight complete innings last time out. During that 3-game stretch, he has 18 K's and only five walks. All three of those games finished with seven or fewer combined runs, averaging six. The UNDER was 2-0-1 in those games and is now 10-6-1 in his 17 starts overall, 6-2-1 here at home.

In his nine home starts, Santana has a 3.60 ERA and 1.169 WHIP, averaging better than seven innings per outing. In those nine home starts, Santana has 50 K's with only 18 walks.

Looking at the bullpens shows that Dodger relievers have been respectable (3.76 ERA and 1.331 WHIP) on the road while the Angel relievers have been downright dominant (2.20 ERA and 1.148 WHIP) here at Anaheim.

The Angels, who earned their 43rd victory of the season yesterday, have seen the UNDER go a profitable 25-15-2 after their first 42 wins. With both starting pitchers out to "prove a point" in front of the national TV audience, I look for those stats to improve tonight. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Cardinals grabbed yesterday's series opener. I expect the Rays to have the advantage this evening though.

Manager Joe Maddon, who was ejected from yesterday's game, wasn't happy with the way his team came out of the gate yesterday. He was quoted as saying: "I thought we were kind of flat at the beginning of the game. I was kind of annoyed with that. We just had a day off Thursday and we didn't have a day off listed for Friday, so I was a little upset with that." I expect Maddon to have his team "fired up" and ready to play here.

Nieman has made two starts since returning from the disabled list, one good and one bad. The Rays won both those games. With a couple of games under his belt and now making his first start at home, since his return, I feel he'll be ready for a better effort. Perhaps more importantly, I expect him to receive some solid run support, just as he has in both previous games. (The Rays have totaled 22 runs in his last two starts.)

McClellan is 0-2 (team is 0-3) with a poor 4.67 ERA and 1.558 WHIP his last three starts. He's issued more walks (7) than he's recorded strikeouts (6) in his last two starts. Last time out, he allowed eight hits and walked three batters in just 5 1/3 innings, giving up all five runs of a 5-0 loss.

Even with yesterday's loss and this season's struggles here overall, the Rays are still a healthy 33-20 the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. That includes an 11-6 mark this season.

Desperate to avoid falling further behind Boston and NY and motivated by yesterday's loss, I expect the Rays to bounce back and improve on those stats today. *10 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals got a much needed victory last night, earning new manager Davey Johnson his first victory with the team. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into the first game of this afternoon's double-header.

Lannan is expected to get the call in the opener. Although he still only allowed three runs, Lannan wasn't his best last time out. However, we can cut him some slack. Not only was that start on the road, but he'd been 3-0 with an outstanding 1.18 ERA in his previous six outings.

Now, Lannan gets to pitch at home, where he's almost always tough. In eight starts here, he's 3-2 (team is 6-2, +4.6!) with an extremely stingy 1.81 ERA and 1.148 WHIP. Note that he's only allowed two home runs in 49 2/3 innings here.

Lannan should be anxious to impress his new manager. After Gorzellany tossed a gem yesterday, Johnson was quoted as saying: "I told all the other starters they're going to be on a longer leash with me. I'm expecting more out of them."

McDonald was decent last time out. That was at home though. In eight road starts, he's got a terrible 6.25 ERA and 1.735 WHIP. He's averaged only five innings per start on the road and has allowed seven home runs in 40 1/3 road innings. Opposing hitters are batting .309 against him on the road.

Over the past few seasons, it should be noted that the Pirates are a money-burning 46-83, (-23.2) when playing during the day. During that stretch, they're an equally costly 17-46 (-23) when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range.

Lannan last five the Pirates on 5/16. While he didn't get a decision in that one, he still only allowed two runs through 6 1/3 innings, keeping his team in the game. The Nats would eventually win 4-2.

Just as Lannan likes his "home cooking," the Nats are an entirely different team here. They're only 18-28 on the road but are an impressive 23-13 at home. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. While the Pirates are off a win at Toronto, the Nationals had yesterday off. On a 3-game skid, the Nats should be extremely motivated to bounce back with a win, particularly given the recent coaching change.

I successfully played against the Nats in Gorzellany's last start. While I won that play (3-0 win on Chicago on 6/25) it wasn't because Gorzellany pitched poorly. In fact, Gorzellany actually tossed a gem - he just got outpitched by a red hot John Danks. In that outing, Gorzellany allowed just one run through seven complete innings. He recorded an impressive eight K's and walked only one batter.

Gorzellany should receive significantly better run support this afternoon. Morton lasted just two innings in his last start, giving up seven runs, six of them earned. Over his last three starts, he's got a terrible 12.27 ERA and 2.636 WHIP.

Note that Morton is 0-2 with an ugly 5.58 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in two starts vs. Washington. The Nats won those games by a combined score of 16-5. On the other hand, Gorzellany is 1-0 with a solid 3.06 ERA in four starts vs. Pittsburgh.

While the Pirates have admittedly been much better on the road this season, they're still a money-burning 16-46 (-24.4) the past few seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. During that stretch, the Nats were a respectable 18-12 (+1.7) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

The Nats, who lost 1-0 on Wednesday, are a lucrative 7-3 (+6.4) the last 10 times that they were off a shutout loss. During that stretch, they're also a profitable 7-2 (+6.8) the last nine times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. With Gorzellany getting the better of Morton, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

I'm playing on TORONTO. Both these teams lost yesterday. With Ricky Romero on the mound and this game being played at Toronto, I look for the Jays to be the team that bounces back this afternoon.

Romero is in superb form. Last time out, he tossed a complete game shutout. Over his last three starts, he's averaged eight innings per outing, while recording a superb 1.12 ERA and 0.875 WHIP. Going back further shows that Romero has pitched a minimum of seven innings in each of his last nine starts. During that stretch, he's gone 5-3 with an outstanding 1.95 ERA.

For the season, Romero is 4-2 with a stellar 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home. In 46 innings here, he's posted an impressive 47 K's, walking only 13.

Manager John Farrell said this of Romero: "He's on a very good run in terms of total innings pitched but yet you look at total number of pitches thrown he's been very efficient for the better part of two months."

Its also worth noting that Romero has dominated the Phillies. In two starts against Philadelphia, he's gone 1-0 (team is 2-0) with a commanding 1.93 ERA and 0.786 WHIP. His lone home start against Philadelphia saw Romero toss seven shutout innings, allowing only two hits, while recording seven K's and only walking one batter. The Jays won those games by a combined score of 14-3.

Kendrick also pitched very well in his last start. However, that was more than two weeks ago and he got rocked (7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP) in his lone road start. He's only back in the rotation due to Oswalt's injury. For his career, Kendrick has a poor 4.56 ERA.

I expect Romero to outpitch and outlast Kendrick and for the Jays to celebrate "Canada Day" by starting the series off with a victory. *10

I'm playing on Texas and Houston to finish UNDER the total. The first game of this series had an O/U line of eight and produced 10 combined runs. That brought the 'over' to 3-0 for both the Rangers and the Astros. Yesterday's game resulted in a "pitcher's duel" though, as the teams combined for only half as many runs, a 3-2 victory for the Rangers. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair in this evening's finale.

Harrison gets the call for the visitors and he's currently in superb form. Indeed, he's got a terrific 1.43 ERA over his last six starts. That includes a 1.40 ERA (1.035 WHIP) his last three. Last time out, he allowed one run through seven complete innings. For the season, he's got an outstanding 2.23 ERA and 1.083 WHIP on the road.
"
After Harrison's last start, Rangers manager Ron Washington noted: He

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After getting absolutely embarrassed (15-0!) the previous day, the Twins bounced back and snapped their 6-game losing streak yesterday. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's contest. Of course, having a decided edge on the mound should make things easier.

Baker gets the call for the home team. He's quietly been very solid all season and he's currently in top form. For the year, he's 5-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Not bad at all, considering the problems the Twins have had overall.

Baker's numbers at home are even better. In five home starts, he's gone 2-1 with a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He's got 34 K's here in 33 innings, walking only eight. In his last start here, he won 1-0. He tossed eight shutout innings and allowed just four hits. Along the way, he had 10 K's and only one walk. In his previous start here, he tossed a complete game 5-hitter, allowing just one run. He had seven K's and didn't walk a batter. Add it up and that's one run in 17 innings in his last two starts here, with only nine hits and with 17 K's and one walk.

Note that Baker was 8-3 here in 2010, so this season's success at home isn't all that surprising. Opposing batters are hitting .224 against Baker here at Minnesota, .232 when playing during the afternoon.

While Baker hasn't served up a home run in weeks, De La Rosa gave up two in his last start alone. Overall, he was fortunate to allow "only" five runs, as he gave up nine hits and issued four free passes. He's 0-2 his last two starts and the Dodgers have lost those games by a combined score of 15-3. In four starts overall, he's got an ugly 6.10 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.

De La Rosa does have "good stuff" and he may well develop into a quality pitcher. However, he's still only 22 and is currently dealing with some control issues. As he noted after his last start: "...the balls I was throwing weren't going into the strike zone." He's allowed 10 earned runs in his last 10 2/3 innings pitched.

The Dodgers did respond to the bankruptcy ruling with a 15-0 win. However, that still figures to be at least a partial distraction. Also, this is a very early game for a "West Coast" based team to be playing, particularly when they travel back to the Coast (to Anaheim) to face their crosstown rivals on July 1st.

While it may seem "funny" to lay this kind of price with a struggling team, note that the Twins are an extremely profitable 47-16 (+25.4) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Baker continuing his success here, I expect them to build off yesterday's win and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. This is a real "clash of the titans" here and could potentially be a World Series preview. The Phillies have the best record in baseball and the Red Sox are currently only a half game behind the Yankees, for the best mark in the American League. Additionally, both send red hot pitchers to the mound for tonight's series opener. As hot as the Red Sox starter (Beckett) is, the Phillies' starter (Lee) is currently in even better form. With this game being played at Philadelphia, I expect the Phillies to have the advantage.

Beckett is having an outstanding season. However, he hasn't pitched since June 15th, due to having the flu. That could potentially affect his rhythm a little here.

Even if Beckett is 100%, he's unlikely to get much run support. In fact, the way that Lee is currently pitching, Beckett will be fortunate to see any runs at all. Indeed, Lee has thrown consecutive shutouts and he hasn't allowed a single run in his last 23 innings. He's got a 0.35 ERA his last three starts, to go along with a 0.654 WHIP.

Lee has faced the Red Sox twice the past two seasons and he allowed just two runs in 17 innings, striking out 11 and walking only one. That translates to a 1.06 ERA and 0.706 WHIP.

Lee won't have to face Carl Crawford (injury) and he also won't have to see David Ortiz in the starting lineup, due to the game being played in an NL ballpark.

Speaking of the Phillies' ballpark, they're now an impressive 30-13 here on the season. The Red Sox, who have dropped four of five overall, are 23-16 on the road.

The Phillies have had some trouble beating the Red Sox in recent years and that makes this game and series even bigger for them. As Manager Charlie Manuel noted: "Anytime the Red Sox come in, it's big for us. It's big for our fans. I think we've had a hard time beating them in the past, the last five or six years I've been here. It would be nice to win a series. We need to come out Tuesday and make sure we play good against them."

I expect Manuel's team to do just that, as Lee does his thing and the Phillies start the series with another victory. *10

I'm playing on Seattle and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. Four of six meetings beteween these teams, dating back to 2003 have fallen below the total. With both starters in excellent current form, I expect another low-scoring affair in this evening's series opener.

Bedard took a loss last time out. However, that was hardly his fault. In six complete innings, he didn't give up a single earned run and allowed only three hits. He had an impressive 10 K's with only two walks. That makes it two straight starts that he hasn't given up an earned run and gives him a 1.00 ERA his last three starts. Bedard has a stellar 2.93 ERA with 80 K's and just 25 walks.

Note that in nine evening starts, Bedard has a 2.25 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .180.

Bedard will face an Atlanta team which managed a mere two hits at Petco Park yesterday.

Beachy made his first start in six weeks last time out. He certainly didn't show any ill effects from the layoff. Indeed, he gave up just one run through six complete innings. The fact that he had 11 K's (and only 2 walks) shows how dominant he was. He's now 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA through nine starts. In 50 innings, he has 57 K's against only 14 walks.

Beachy has been particularly tough away from Atlanta. In three road starts, he's 1-0 with an extremely stingy 1.50 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .145 against him in those games.

The UNDER is 3-1 in Beachy's last four starts. Even better, the UNDER is 6-1 in Bedard's last seven starts. I expect "more of the same' here. *10

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. The Royals earned a much needed 3-2 victory yesterday. They scored the winning run in the bottom of the 8th inning, snapping a season-high 6-game losing streak. That should give them some positive momentum here. Knowing they take to the road for an extended trip after today's game, the Royals should be highly motivated to close out the homestand with another win. I expect them to do just that.

Hochevar wasn't his best last time out and his overall stats aren't impressive. That said, he'd been quite sharp in his previous two starts and still has a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP his last three starts.

That puts him in much better current form that Chicago starter Randy Wells. Indeed, Wells has an ugly 5.65 ERA and an awful 1.745 WHIP his last three starts.

Over his last three outings, Hochever is averaging seven innings per start. On the other hand, Wells is averaging just 4.8 innings over his last three starts.

With this being an afternoon game, note that Hochevar is a dismal 1-7 with a 5.23 ERA at night but 3-1 with a 4.35 ERA during the day. That was also the case last season, when he went 1-4 at night but 5-2 during the day.

Wells, on the other hand, has been equally brutal during the day or night this season. Last year, however, he was much worse when pitching during the day.

The Royals may be only 22-24 at home but that's far better than the Cubs' 15-23 mark on the road. With Hochevar getting the better of Wells, I expect KC to build off yesterday's win and close out the series with another important victory. *10

I'm playing on the Dodgers and Angels to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total. I expect a much lower-scoring affair this afternoon though.

Kuroda checks in with a 5-8 record. However, he's been much better than that record indicates. In 96+ innings, he has an extremely solid 3.07 ERA with 75 K's to just 27 walks. In his last start, Kuroda allowed a mere three hits through seven shutout innings, striking out six along the way.

Despite the fact that he hasn't been picking up wins, Kuroda now has an exceptional 1.45 ERA his last three starts, recording 19 K's in

18 2/3 innings. For the season, he has a 2.79 ERA, when pitching during the afternoon. Not surprisingly, two of Kuroda's last three starts have fallen below the total. His last start finished with a score of 1-0.

Kuroda's lone start vs. the Angels came in 2008. He allowed three runs through 6 1/3 innings. The game stayed below the total with a score of 4-2.

Meanwhile, Chatwood is coming off a gem of his own. In that game, he allowed only four hits through seven shutout innings. Chatwood is 2-1 with a respectable 3.74 ERA.

Chatwood will face a Dodger lineup which entered the series averaging a mere 3.0 runs per game at home, hitting just .239 here. He'll also have the advantage of starting against the Dodgers for the first time. Look for a well-pitched affair with the UNDER improving to 13-9-4 when the Angels played during the afternoon. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I lost a tough one with the White Sox yesterday. The Sox would eventually lose in the bottom of the 14th inning. I'm fully willing to give them another shot in this afternoon's all southpaw affair though.

Danks is just 3-8 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.376 WHIP on the season. However, that only tells part of the story. A closer look shows that

Danks' three victories have come in his last three starts and that he's currently in excellent form. Indeed, Danks is 3-0 with an excellent 1.23 ERA and 0.955 WHIP his last three starts. During that stretch, he has averaged 7 1/3 innings per start and had 17 K's to just three walks. He also didn't allow any home runs in any of those games.

While Danks is currently in top form, the same cannot be said for Gorzelanny. Over his last three starts, Gorzelanny is 0-3 with an awful 7.63 ERA and 2.151 WHIP. He's given up four home runs in those three games. Last time out, Gorzelanny gave up 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings and didn't strike out a single batter. Clearly, he hasn't been fooling too many batters.

For the season, Gorzelanny is 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.429 WHIP on the road. Danks is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.257 WHIP at home.

While Gorzelanny got rocked here (8-2 loss) in June of 2008, Danks will have the advantage of starting against Washington for the first time.

The Sox are only batting a mediocre .250 against left-handed starters, scoring 4.1 runs in those games. However, that's a lot better than Washington's .220 average (3.4 runs per game) against southpaw starters. I expect Danks to be the better southpaw as the Sox bounce back and even up the series. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I won with the Nationals in Zimmerman's last start (4-2 win over Baltimore on 6/18) so I'm well aware that Zimmerman is currently pitching well. On the same night, I also won by playing against Chicago, in Jackson's last start. That resulted in a 4-1 victory with Arizona. That said, I still have plenty of respect for Jackson and I look for his team to rally around him here.

Yes, Zimmerman has been tough - both at home and on the road. However, Jackson's home ERA (2.89) is nearly identical Zimmerman's road ERA of 2.82.

Jackson has allowed four or fewer earned runs in 10 straight home starts. He's allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts here, including each of the last three.

While the win/loss record remains a bit dicey, clearly, Jackson can get it done. In fact, it should be noted that his no-hitter came almost exactly one year ago, to the day. That was on June 25th, 2010 - and here we are on June 24th, 2011.

Facing a Washington team which averages only 3.7 runs per game on the road, while hitting a mere .222 in those games, figures to help Jackson.

Chicago's offensive stats here (4.1 runs per game, .253 avg) aren't great - but are still much better than Washington's road numbers.

What is 'great' is Chicago's Interleague record. Indeed, the Sox are now 33-12 (+22.1) in IL play the past few seasons. The Nats, on the other hand, are still only 18-27 (-9.6) in IL play, during the same stretch.

Off a win yesterday and playing some of the best baseball since the team moved to Washington, the Nats should be on top of the world. That's not the case though - as their manager resigned after yesterday's win. General manager Mike Rizzo noted: "We should be celebrating going to Chicago. I'm disappointed that this is a distraction."

With the potentially "distracted" Nats at a money-burning 13-29 (-14.2) the past 42 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, I look for the Sox to start things off with a victory. *10

I'm playing on Arizona and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. These two starting pitchers have a combined W/L record of just 2-9. Given that record, some might expect the bats to come alive here. I feel that both starters are considerably more capable than their records indicate though and I feel that this game will prove lower-scoring than expected.

Duke had one rough outing since he came back from the disabled list and joined Arizona. However, three of his five starts have been of the quality variety and two were absolute gems. Three of his last four starts have fallen below the total.

Duke started against Detroit once, back in 2009, and pitched well. In that outing, he allowed three runs through eight complete innings, giving up only seven (6 hits, 1 walk) base-runners. That translates to a 3.38 ERA and 0.875 WHIP.

Coke has been far better than his 1-7 record shows as he's got a solid 3.82 ERA as a starter. He did have some control issues last time out. That was at Colorado though, which can still be a tough place to pitch. In his previous start, which was his most recent here at home, Coke was dominant. In fact, he limited Tampa to a mere four hits through seven shutout innings - and he didn't walk a batter. He didn't receive a decision but the final score was just 2-1.

Coke will have the advantage of starting against Arizona for the first time - although it should be noted that he did get two outs in relief against the Dbax to earn a 7-5 win last June.

It should also be noted that the Diamondbacks typically don't hit as well on the road OR against southpaws. In fact, they're hitting only .235 vs. southpaw starters, averaging 4.1 run in those games. Those stats are down considerably from their overall averages.

While the Detroit bullpen has very solid at home, the Arizona bullpen has been stingy on the road.

The Diamondbacks have been getting it done with pitching lately. With last night's game staying below the total, they've now seen the UNDER go 6-1-1 (or 7-1) their last eight games. I look for those stats to improve this evening. *10

I'm playing on ST LOUIS. Playing without Pujols and in danger of being swept, the Cardinals badly need a victory. They've had to face Halladay and Lee in the first two games of this series, so its not all that surprising that they're 0-2. However, I expect them to have the advantage for this evening's finale.

Carpenter gets the call for the Cards. He certainly doesn't have Cy Young stats at the moment. That said, he's pitched far better than his record indicates, particularly here at St. Louis. In seven starts here, he's got a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.255 WHIP. He's only given up two home runs in his seven home starts (none in his last 2) and is averaging a healthy 6 2/3 innings per start here. In 47 home innings, he's got 41 K's with just 13 walks.

While Carpenter's home numbers might not fare too well against what Cliff Lee is currently bringing to the table (Lee is now 4-0 with a 0.27 ERA this month!) they do match up well against Oswalt's current stats.

I successfully played against the Phillies in Oswalt's last start. At the time, they were red hot. However, I noted that Oswalt wasn't nearly as dominant as the Phillies' top three starters and that I expected Seattle, who had Pineda pitching, to have an advantage on the mound. Sure enough, priced in the "pick'em range," just as the Cards are here, the M's did have a pitching advantage - as Pineda was much better than Oswalt.

Oswalt would allow four runs on eight hits (and two walks) in 6 1/3 innings. Not terrible. But not good either. He's now 1-2 with a poor 5.12 ERA his last three starts. Note that he's averaging only 5 1/3 innings on the road this season and that he's just 1-4 his last seven starts.

While the Cards have already beaten Oswalt once this season, Carpenter will have the advantage of facing Philadelphia for the first time since last July and only second time since 2006. Note that he was dominant in last season's lone start against the Phillies. In that outing, Carpenter allowed just one run on five hits, pitching eight complete innings. The Cards, who were laying -175 for that one, won by a score of 7-1.

Including that result, Carpenter's teams are 6-1 in his last seven starts against Philadelphia. I expect him to outduel Oswalt here, as the Cards avoid being swept at home for the first time in nearly five years. *10

I'm playing on NEW YORK. After the A's grabbed Tuesday's opener, the Mets responded with a 3-2 victory, in 13 innings yesterday. Those are the type of wins that can build positive momentum for the winning team and be deflating for the losing team.

The "deflating factor" could be particularly true for the A's today, as they'd previously been on a 6-game winning streak. Additionally, they're a team from the West Coast playing an early game in the East today. (They've also got a trip to Philadelphia on deck - the top team in the NL.)

Naturally, when handicapping baseball, starting pitching is always extremely important. With yesterday's game going to extra innings, the starters arguably take on even more significance. I expect that to also favor the Mets.

Capuano doesn't have a very impressive IL record and he hasn't gotten much run support here lately. That said, he's currently in red hot form. Even after a tough loss last time out (he still delivered a quality start) he's still 2-1 with a superb 1.42 ERA in his last three starts.

Capuano should finally get a few runs here. Not only should his team be 'inspired' by last night's thriller but they'll also be facing a pitcher making just his third start. Godfrey was solid last time out - but got rocked in his debut, so the jury is still out on him - and some "growing pains" would not surprising.

Note that Godfrey's lone road start was the one he got rocked in. While its obviously a very small "sample size," he's got a terrible 10.39 ERA and 2.54 WHIP on the road.

Overall, even with a win in the series opener, the A's are still a terrible 5-16 their last 21 on the road - as their recent win streak came primarily at Oakland.

While the A's average 3.9 runs per game during the afternoon, the Mets average 4.5 runs in their afternoon games. I expect them to outscore the A's here, building off yesterday's victory and finishing off the series with a more "convincing" win. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Twins won big in yesterday's opener. I expect the champs to bounce back and even up the series tonight.

Vogelsong has been outstanding. He's 4-1 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.164 WHIP on the season. He's been particularly dominant at home. Indeed, in five starts here, he's got an awesome 1.05 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. Averaging 6.9 innings, he only allowed one home run in those five games. Not surprisingly, the Giants were a profitable 4-1 (+3.4) in those games.

Blackburn has also been very tough at home, but fairly mediocre (3.83 ERA, 1.389 WHIP) on the road. While Vogelsong has given up just one home run at home, Blackburn has given up seven on the road.

Note that the Minnesota bullpen entered the series with a 4.22 ERA and 1.531 WHIP on the road. That doesn't compare favorably to the stats (2.36 ERA and 1.188 WHIP) which the SF bullpen entered the series with, here at home.

The Giants are 78-54 the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of seven or less. That includes a highly profitable 52-26 (+17.3) mark, when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less. With Vogelsong continuing his home excellence, I expect the Giants to improve on those stats. *10 (Personal Fav)

I'm playing on St. Louis an Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total. In fact, the Phillies eclipsed the number by themselves, in a single inning. I expect a much lower-scoring game here though.

One of the very best in the world, when he's on his game, Lee is currently in superb form. In fact, over his last three starts, he's gone 3-0 with a microscopic 0.37 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. During that stretch, he gave up just one run in 24 innings! Not surprisingly, those three games averaged only five combined runs each, most recently a 3-0 victory. For the season, Lee has now seen the UNDER go a profitable 9-6.

As you're probably aware, Lee will not have to contend with Albert Pujols. Still, even if the Cardinals had their slugger in the lineup, it would have been tough to score against Lee. Lee has made two starts against St. Louis, since 2009. Those games both stayed well below the total (scores of 3-0 and 3-1) with Lee allowing just three earned runs in 15 1/3 innings.

Overall, the Cards have seen the UNDER go 65-51-9 the past few seasons, when facing a southpaw starter.

Admittedly, Lohse isn't currently exhibiting the same type of dominant form that Lee is. He's still having an excellent season though - and he knows his team could badly use a big performance from him today. Indeed, he's 7-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.041 WHIP. Note that he's averaging 7 1/3 innings per home start and that four of his six starts here have fallen below the number.

Yes, the Phillies offense is certainly capable of being "explosive" - we saw that yesterday. However, keep in mind that Philadelphia entered this series hitting only .237 on the road and averaging a mere 3.6 runs. So, yesterday's result wasn't exactly "normal."

Even including yesterday's result, the UNDER is till a healthy 12-7-1 the last 20 meetings between these teams, including 4-1 the last five. I expect those stats to improve as this well-pitched affair proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10

I'm playing on Arizona and KC to finish UNDER the total. Arizona has scored five or fewer runs in six straight games. During that stretch, the Diamondbacks are averaging only three runs per game. Meanwhile, KC has scored five or fewer runs in five straight games. During that stretch, the Royals are averaging just 3.6 runs per game. With both offenses struggling, I expect a relatively low-scoring affair in this evening's opener.

Hochevar's numbers admittedly aren't that great. However, he's quietly been pitching very well lately. Two starts ago, he held the Jays to two runs through seven complete innings. Last time out, he limited Oakland to two runs through seven innings. Those games finished with scores of 3-2 and 2-1, both staying comfortably below the total. Hochevar has now seen six of his last eight, including three straight, finish with nine or fewer combined runs. He's been helped by the fact that he hasn't allowed any home runs in his last few games.

Saunders has also quietly been pitching quiet well recently. He took the loss last time out but still allowed just three runs through seven innings. He's got a solid 3.60 ERA his last three starts. Two of those three games stayed below the total and they averaged only 5.67 combined runs.

Saunders has now pitched a minimum of six complete innings in nine straight starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of those. Note that seven of those nine games finished with nine or fewer combined runs.

Saunders should be happy to see KC. He's 3-0 with a superb 2.57 ERA in five starts vs. the Royals. Four of those games stayed below the total, including a 2-1 game in last season's lone meeting vs. the Royals. Saunders allowed one run in eight innings in that one.

The Diamondbacks have seen the UNDER go 34-22-2 the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of eight nine or 9.5. That includes a profitable 5-1 UNDER mark their last six in that situation. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds got back on track yesterday, earning a 2-1 victory in the finale of their series vs. Toronto. That win helped them avoid being swept and was their first of Interleague play this season. I expect them to make it two in a row here.

Cueto was supposed to get the call but has been swapped for Wood. I liked the Reds with Cueto and I also like them with Wood. While Wood has admittedly been rather inconsistent on the season, he's currently on a major role. Indeed, he's 2-0 with a superb 0.86 ERA his last three starts. He should get some run support tonight.

I won with the Yankees in Nova's last start. That resulted in an easy 12-4 winner. However, they didn't win that game because of Nova.

Nova pitched only 5 2/3 innings and allowed four runs, giving up seven hits and walking three. Nothing special about that. For the season, he's got a 4.46 ERA and 1.554 WHIP.

Despite his mediocre stats, Nova does have a 6-4 record. That's largely because the Yankees generally are a better hitting team than the team that they are facing. That's not necessarily the case against the Reds - not at Cincinnati, at least. The Reds entered Sunday's action averaging 5.3 runs per game and hitting .273 at home. The Yankees entered Sunday averaging an equal 5.3 runs per game on the road but hitting only .255.

In addition to having an advantage on the mound, Cincinnati also has the schedule in its favor. While the Reds played here yesterday afternoon, the Yankees are off a night game at Chicago. With Wood getting the better of Nova, I look for them to pad those stats here. *10

*Note if you bet this play listed pitchers with Cueto, you will have to re-bet.

I'm playing on Chicago and NY to finish OVER the total. The first two games of this series have been low-scoring. I look for the bats to come alive in tonight's finale though.

Wells goes for the Cubs. He's got an ugly 5.62 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in his five starts. He's averaged less than five innings per start and has allowed four home runs in 24 innings. He has more walks than K's his last three outings, posting a 5.79 ERA during that stretch. Three of his last four starts have finished above the total.

Naturally, Sabathia has been better than Wells. However, he's still been a profitable 'over' pitcher. In fact, 11 of his 15 starts have finished above the total. Each of his last two starts have finished with double-digits in runs.

It should also be noted that Sabathia has a poor 5.76 ERA in four starts vs. the Cubs, although he hasn't faced them for a few seasons.

Yankee road games are averaging 8.8 runs while Cub home games are averaging nine.

Note that the Cubs have hit better against southpaw starters than they have vs. right-handers. Their games vs. left-handed starters are averaging 9.9 runs.

The Cubs have seen the OVER go 24-16 when coming off a loss. I expect those stats to improve tonight. *10

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals got a big 2-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning yesterday, leading to a much-needed

5-4 victory. That should give them some positive momentum here. Combine that with what should be a significant advantage on the mound and I look for the Cards to grab this afternoon's rubber match in convincing fashion.

Both Garcia and Duffy pitched six complete innings last time out. Both allowed two earned runs. However, Garcia was arguably more impressive. He had 7 K's with only one walk. Duffy, on the other hand, walked four batters and walked only two.

While the bottom line (runs) was the same for Duffy and Garcia last time out, there's no arguing the fact that Garcia has been the better pitcher overall.

Garcia is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA on the season. In 14 starts, he's only allowed four home runs. He's got an impressive 79 K's to just 21 walks.

Duffy, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA. He's only made six starts and has allowed five home runs. He also has more walks (21) than strikeouts (20.)

A closer look reveals that Garcia has been absolutely dominant here at St. Louis. In fact, he's 4-0 with a 0.46 ERA in five starts here. He hasn't given up a home run here all season and opposing batters are hitting a mere .145 against him here. He averages greater than seven innings per start here.

Garcia will face a Royals team which is an awful 38-71 (-29.6) against left-handed starters, the past few seasons. I expect him to be the better southpaw and for the Cards to build off yesterday's win and to close out the series with a convincing victory. *10