I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* PERS FAV. While I lost with the Mariners last night, I'm fully willing to give them another shot tonight. Iwakuma, who allowed just one unearned run and only three hits through 5 2/3 innings last time out, should be happy to see the Angels. He's allowed just one earned run each of his past two starts against the Angels, going six or more innings in each. Going back further finds him at 9-5 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in his career against them. On the other hand, Nolasco is just 1-4 (4.33 ERA) in six starts vs. Seattle. Even with yesterday's 6-4 win, the Angels are still averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the road while the M's are still averaging 5.1 r.p.g. at home. The last time that the M's had lost three in a row, they answered with an 11-1 win in their next game. Seattle bounces back big, again.

I'm playing on KC 10* ANNIHILATOR. While its been an ugly run for the Royals, this should be an excellent spot to break through with a much-needed victory. Karns was excellent (1.50 ERA) in his lone home start, allowing just one run on only four hits. Pelfrey, on the other hand, has yet to pitch five complete innings. Last time out, Karns had five K's without walking a batter. Conversely, Pelfrey had twice as many walks (4) as he did K's. Pelfrey is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA and an awful 1.981 WHIP in eight starts vs. KC. The Royals are still 45-23 (+12.7) the past 2+ seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. With Karns outpitching and outlasting Pelfrey, expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF WEEK. I successfully played against the Mariners in their last start. However, that was an early game at the end of a long road trip, a game where they had numerous disadvantages. This one sets up much differently.

The M's have had a day off and are back home. They're also facing a division rival which is ahead of them in the standings and which swept them at LA a few weeks back.This is a homestand that the M's really need to perform well on and they should have a significant advantage on the mound for tonight's opener.

Paxton has gotten off to an outstanding start. Through five starts, he's 3-0 with a superb 1.39 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. In two home starts, he's allowed ZERO runs in 15 innings. During that span, he's given up a mere six hits and three walks, while striking out 17. That translates to a 0.60 WHIP. Opposing hitters are betting a mere .122 against him here. Through 32+ innings overall, Paxton has yet to allow a home run while recording 39 K's. O

n the other hand, Shoemaker has a 4.73 ERA through five starts. While Paxton will have the advantage of starting against the Angels for the first time this season, Seattle hitters already got a look at Shoemaker a few weeks ago. They liked what they saw too, as the Mariners scored seven runs (six earned) against Shoemaker in just 4 1/3 innings. 

Expect Paxton to get the better of Shoemaker, the M's exacting some revenge from last month's series at LA. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 10* GAME OF MONTH. These teams have split the first two games of the series. The Sox took the opener, the Cubs won big yesterday. At roughly a pick'em price, I like the Sox to bounce back and grab the rubber game. Note that Boston is already 7-3 this season, when off a loss. Both starters threw six shutout innings last time out. However, Rodriguez arguably has the superior numbers overall. He's got a 3.31 ERA compared to Hendricks' 4.50 ERA. Admittedly, Chicago relievers have pitched very well on the road. However, Boston relievers have been every bit as good here at home, arguably better. In roughly 45 road innings, Cub relievers have a stellar 2.01 ERA, allowing four home runs with a 1-2 record. In also roughly 45 home innings, Boston relievers have an even better 1.79 ERA, a 3-0 record, allowing just two home runs. Overall, Chicago relievers have a 2.71 ERA with four blown saves in 10 tries. Boston relievers have a 2.31 ERA with just two blown saves (none at home) in 10 tries. While the Cubs hit .266 on the road, the Sox hit .289 at home. With opposing batters hitting a mere .172 against Rodriguez, I'm backing the home team. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10*. Tomlin's numbers may look bad overall. However, he's actually coming off back-to-back quality starts. I like the fact that he didn't walk a single batter in either game and that he also kept the ball in the park, in both games. De Jong, on the other hand, is making his first career start. He's in the rotation only due to an injury to King Felix. Note that Tomlin's teams are 5-1 over the years when he's started against Seattle. His last three starts against them have seen him record 22 K's without walking a batter, allowing only three total runs in 23+ innings. Catching the west-coast based M's playing an early game, the final one of a long road trip, expect Tomlin and the Indians to close out the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10*. The Marlins are looking to avoid the sweep here and I feel this should be a good matchup for them to do it. Koehler has lost against the Pirates each of the last two seasons. However, a closer look shows that he pitched well in each of those games, allowing just two runs through six complete innings in both of them. A similar effort should result in victory this afternoon. Koehler checks in off a quality start. Kuhl, on the other hand, lasted a mere 1 2/3 innings last time out. During that span, he managed to give up 12 baserunners and nine earned runs. Pirates 8-10 (-2.4) off a shutout win last couple of seasons, Marlins 13-11 (+2.3) off a shutout loss. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the Run-Line 10*.  (+1.5 runs) This game could well be close. With an O/U line of 7.5, runs are likely to be at a premium. That said, I like getting the extra +1.5 runs with the home team here. Off yesterday's 4-1 win, the Jays come in with some positive momentum. These same two starters already faced each other this season. Both pitched well, although Sanchez was actually better. (He allowed one run in 7 innings, Archer allowed 2.) The final score was 3-2 for the Rays, a 1-run game. Last season, Sanchez made two starts against the Rays. In 14 combined innings, he allowed just a single run. The Jays won one by a score of 6-1 and the lost the other by a 3-2 score, another 1-run game. While he'll be on a pitch count here, I expect him to perform well while he's in the game. After yesterday's game, Liriano noted: "We're in April but every game we play feels like it's the playoffs right now." Expect the Jays to have a similar mentality this afternoon, earning AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on MIAMI 10* PERS FAV. Off yesterday's embarrassing 12-2 loss in the opener, their third straight setback, the Marlins should be highly motivated this evening. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Marlins are 27-22 (+8) off three or more consecutive losses. During that stretch, they were 9-7 (+1.3) after allowing double-digits in runs. I won with the Pirates in Nova's last start. So, I'm well aware that he's been pitching well. However, Straily is arguably in even better form. Last time out, he struck out 14 without walking a single batter. He didn't factor in the decision but the Marlins won. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.808 WHIP his last three. In two home starts, both Marlin wins, he's got a 1.74 ERA. Straily has a solid 3.31 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in six starts vs. the Pirates, his team winning four of those. With the Pirates averaging 3.9 runs on the road and the Marlins averaging 4.9 at home, I feel we're gettting very fair value. 

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Royals badly need a victory. A Thursday off and an advantage on the mound for Friday should be just what the doctor ordered. Kennedy has pitched much better than his 0-2 record suggests. Last time out, he gave up just one run through seven complete innings. Through four starts this season, he's got a superb 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. While Kennedy has gone a minimum of six innings (and an average of seven) in each of his last three starts, Gibson hasn't pitched past the sixth inning yet. Last time out, he lasted only 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven runs, six of them earned. He's served up at least one long ball in every start and five of them overall. Not very good considering that he's only thrown 17 combined innings. Overall, he's 0-3 with an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. Expect Kennedy to get the better of Gibson, the Royals getting back on track with a much needed win. *AL GOW

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. While the Rays took yesterday's game, the O's are still 9-4 their last 13. I expect them to have the advantage in this evening's rubber game. Cobb has a 5.84 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in two road starts. The Rays lost those two games by a combined score of 15-6. On the other hand, Bundy has a brilliant 0.64 ERA (0.786 WHIP) in two home starts. The O's won those two games by a combined score of 5-1. While Cobb has already served up five home runs, Bundy has yet to allow a single one. Even with yesterday's result, the Rays are 2-7 on the road, the O's are 7-3 at home. All things considered, this price could easily be higher.

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the RUN-LINE (+1.5 Runs, 10* VIOLATOR) The Pirates have now seen four of their last six games decided by a single run. All four had identical 2-1 scores. Three of those were losses. So, the extra +1.5 runs has been significant in their recent games. The extra +1.5 runs has been particularly significant in games started by Kuhl. He's pitched very well in back-to-back starts, allowing just three combined earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. During those two games, he held the Cards and Red Sox to just eight combined hits. He struck out nine and walked just one. Yet, the Pirates lost both games by a single run. While Kuhl has a 2.60 ERA and 1.154 WHIP, Anderson has a 4.39 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. His lone road start resulted in a 1-run game. The Pirates are 43-29 (+12.6) vs. the moneyline against southpaws the past 2+ seasons. In a game that could easily "come down to the wire," I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. These teams have split the first two meetings of this series. With Nova on the mound, facing his former team for the first time, I expect the Pirates to have the advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. While his record doesn't show it, Nova has been excellent so far this season. He allowed just two runs, on only five hits, through eight innings last time out. The extremely efficient outing saw him need only 78 pitches. Through three starts, he's got a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He has yet to walk a batter. Montgomery, on the other hand, has a 1.50 WHIP. He's allowing more than a hit per inning and he's already walked four in less than 11 combined innings of work. Including their victory in Game 1, when Sabathia was on the mound, the Pirates are a profitable 42-29 (+11.6) against southpaw starters, the past 2+ seasons. Look for them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS 10* PERS FAV. The Jays may have taken yesterday's game. However, all is still not well. Lawrence, who has spent his career in the minors, is only getting the start today, his first ever, due to injuries to others in the rotation. Skaggs dealt with injuries for much of his young career. However, he's finally healthy now and he's off a gem last time out. While he didn't factor in the decision, Skaggs would toss seven shutout innings at KC, striking out nine Royals along the way. He gave up only four hits. That's absolutely the type of performance he can build off. Lawrence may be older but Skaggs has more big league experience and it should serve him well here. 

Over the past 2+ seasons, the Jays are 6-20 (-11) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. During that span, the Angels are 44-19 (+17.2) as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here, Skaggs getting the better of Lawrence. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 10* PERS FAV. A lot of people are likely to jump on the Yankees at roughly a pick'em price, with Sabathia on the mound. Admittedly, he's been pretty good so far. However, before getting too excited, lets not forget that the veteran hasn't had a winning record since 2013, when he went 14-13. Over the past three seasons, he was a combined 18-26. His ERA's the last four seasons are 4.78, 5.28, 4.73 and 3.91.

Glasnow, the Pirates top prospect, took a big step forward last time out. After a tough 4-run first inning against the Cubs, he settled down and pitched quite well the rest of the way. Manager Clint Hurdle noted: "Different cat from that point on." Hurdle went on to say: "Look at the stuff. Look at the break and the tilt and the depth of the breaking ball. Look at the changeups he was able to throw. The strikes, aggressive in the zone. There were a lot of positive building blocks. The last four innings, that's a Major League pitcher out there. ... That's what he's got to hold on to and work with moving forward."

While they've gotten off to a tough start against them this season, the Pirates remain a healthy 41-29 (+10.6) their last 70 against southpaws. Expect them to get back on track here, Glasnow buidling off his last start and picking up his first "W." 

I'm playing on TAMPA 10* ANNIHILATOR. The Rays took yesterday's opener and they should have a signficant advantage on the mound again today. Archer is seemingly on a mission this season. Through three starts, all of them Tampa wins, he's got a 2-0 record and a 2.21 ERA. He's got 18 K's to go along with six walks. He's gone seven or more innings in each of his home starts. On the other hand, Zimmerman has a 5.06 ERA through two starts. He walked five batters in just 4 2/3 innings last time out. At one point, he walked consecutive batters, the first time he did so since 2012. Expect Archer to outpitch and outlast Zimmerman, the Rays finishing on top. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* PERS FAV. After an excellent spring and an MVP in the World Baseball Challenge, Stroman has followed it up with a stellar 1.76 ERA through his first couple of starts. On the other hand, Johnson hasn't started in the majors since 2015, when he made a single start. He was hit in the head by a line drive less than two weeks ago. Some may recall that Johnson, a former first round pick, also got hit in the head (face) a few years back. He was covered in blood, got carried out on a stretcher and nearly lost his eyesight. Good for him in coming back. But its a lot to ask to go up against the competitive Stroman, who's been in top form out of the gate and who is 4-1 (team is 5-2) in seven strarts vs. Boston. Jays bounce back with a much needed win. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* PERS FAV. The Astros are playing much better baseball than the Angels right now. Houston has won four straight. LA has dropped five in a row. I expect those streaks to continue for at least another night. Morton was solid in his lone start here, allowing two runs through six complete innings. He hasn't started against the Angels for a number of years but his teams are 2-0 against them when he has. While Morton kept the ball in the park last time out, Chavez gave up two home runs in just 4 1/3 innings. That saw his ERA climb to 5.40. Speaking of home runs, when Chavez started here previously, he allowed three home runs in 5 1/3 innings. Houston won 7-3. Astros keep rolling. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. The Tigers took yesterday's opener and come in as the hotter team. I expect Kluber and the Tribe to even up the series this afternoon though. The Indians have won Kluber's last four starts against the Tigers by a combined score of 32-9. While he did finally beat them at Detroit late last September, the Indians are also 7-1 the last eight times that they faced Verlander. They're 4-0 their last four home games against Verlander, winning by a combined score of 22-5. Expect the Indians to bounce back. 

I'm playing on SF 10* PERS FAV. The Rockies check in off a 6-0 loss against the Padres. That was at Colorado, against a weak SD team and against a right-handed pitcher (Zach Lee) who had only made one previous start. That start was a disaster (7 runs, 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings) too, that 15-2 loss, coming way back in 2015. Yet, Lee dominated the Rockies. Now, they travel to SF to take on an elite southpaw, one which has dominated them. The Rockies are a dismal 32-61 (-22.6) against left-handers the past 2+ seasons. So, it comes as no surprise that Bumgarner has limited them to a single combined run in his last two starts against them. Gray, on the other hand, got roughed up the last time that he faced the Giants, SF winning 7-2. Bumgarner has pitched well enough that he could easily be 2-0. Instead, he remains winless. Expect a big effort, en route to his first victory. 

I'm playing on TORONTO 10* BEST BET. With the Leafs taking on the Capitals at Washington, the Jays may not get much attention tonight. However, the Jays fans that stick with the baseball team should be rewarded with a victory. Its important not to over-react to one start. Yes, Liriano got roughed up. Again, thats only one start. The last time he saw Baltimore, he recorded 10 K's (against only 1 walk) while tossing six shutout innings. Gausman, on the other hand, is 0-2 his last two starts at Toronto, giving up 10 combined earned runs in nine innings. The Jays are 13-7 their last 20 as a host of the O's. Look for them to bounce back with a much-needed win.

I'm playing on Minnesota/Detroit to finish OVER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. The Tigers should get to Gibson. He struggled in his first start and was fortunate to avoid the loss. In five innings, he gave up a pair of home runs. While Gibson has had a couple of good starts against Detroit, he's also had some bad ones. Overall, he's got a 4.84 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 starts against the Tigers. Fulmer was admittedly pretty sharp in his first game. However, he wasn't exactly dominant in his lone start vs. the Twins. In five innings, he allowed seven hits, that game finishing with 11 combined runs. After the pitchers stole center stage yesterday, expect the bats to come alive today. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF WEEK. The Astros swept the Mariners in a series at Houston last week. One of the wins featured Morton taking on Paxton. Playing their home opener, I expect Paxton and the M's to get some payback this afternoon. Even with the win against Paxton, the Astros are still only 1-3 vs. southpaw starters. In fact, they're now a money-burning 58-61 (-19.6) against southpaws the past 2+ seasons. A closer look at last week's Paxton/Morton matchup reveals that Paxton actually dominated the Astros. He allowed just two hits through six shutout innings, which was better than the two runs, on five hits, also through six innings, which Morton permitted. Morton had 4 K's vs. 2 walks. Paxton had 5 K's vs. 1 walk. Look for Paxton to again get the better of Morton, only this time, expect it to result in a victory for the M's. *GOW

I'm playing on SF 10* ANNIHILATOR. Walker and the Dbax beat Moore and the Giants at Arizona last week. Playing at home and having gotten on track yesterday, I expect Moore and the Giants to return the favor this afternoon. While its been a tough start to the season, the Giants are coming off a victory, giving them some positive momentum. With that result, they're now a profitable 64-49 (+5.5) in day games, the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, even with a win yesterday, the Dbax are a money-burning 41-55 in day games. Arizona has been fortunate to play each of its games at home. This will be the Dbax road opener. While they've had some success here at SF, they're still just 78-86 on the road the past couple of seasons. During that span, the Giants are 93-71 at home. That includes a 4-2 win with Moore on the mound on the final day of August last season. In two late season starts against Arizona, Moore allowed just three runs in 12 1/3 innings, recording a dominating 18 Ks vs only two walks. Payback time. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* PERS FAV. The Dbax won big yesterday and have taken the first two games of the series. The Indians should have a significant advantage this afternoon though and I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Kluber wasn't dominant in this season's first outing. The Indians still won though and he still struck out six in six innings. Meanwhile, Corbin lasted just four innings in losing 8-4 against SF in his first start. He had just one K vs. two walks. Throw in the seven hits he allowed during that span and he's got an awful 2.25 WHIP. Sure, thats only one start. However, Kluber was also MUCH better (again) last season. Kluber was 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP last season, recording 227 K's along the way. Corbin, on the other hand, was 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP last season. Kluber's lone start vs. Arizona saw him toss seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits while striking out eight. The Indians won that game, which was here at Arizona by a score of 6-1. All things considered, the line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on Oakland/Texas UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP. I won with the Rangers in yesterday's 10-5 series opener. I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening. Darvish's last start against the A's resulted in a 5-0 win. He allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings. Graveman's last start against Texas was even lower-scoring, a 3-0 final. While Darvish was only mediocre (4 runs, through 6 1/3 innings) in his first start, he did allow just four hits. He was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in the spring and should be poised for a big year. Graveman was sharp in his first start. He allowed just two runs through six complete innings, en route to earning a 4-2 victory against the Angels. Note that Graveman also had a 2.29 ERA (0.81 WHIP) in the spring. Look for the pitchers to take center stage, the final combined score falling below the number. 

I'm playing on TEXAS 10* PERS FAV. After getting swept by the Indians, the Rangers badly need a victory. This should be a great spot to get one. Alcántara was 1-3 with a poor 7.25 ERA in five starts last season. He was hurt by the long ball. The Rangers saw him twice and took him deep three times in 11 2/3 innings. Hew was fortunate to earn a spot in the rotation as he was only mediocre in the spring. While Griffin's overall spring numbers were nothing to write home about either, he did improve as the spring went on and he did do enough to lock down a spot in the rotation. After his last start, he noted: "I've done my best. My last previous few outings I was a little sharper. I fell behind today but I battled through it ... " With an O/U line of 9.5, note that the Rangers are a lucrative 82-58 (+27.6) the past 2+ seasons when playing a game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. During that stretch, they're also 17-11 (+9.2) when off three or more consecutive losses. Expect them to bounce back with a big win.

I'm playing on TORONTO. Off back-to-back losses at Baltimore, the Jays could badly use a victory. Stroman figures to be the guy to lead them to one. Stroman had a 1.04 ERA in the spring and he didn't walk a single batter. Additionally, he was the MVP of the World Baseball Classic. In three starts for Team USA he had a 2.35 ERA. In the championship game, he was outstanding, delivering six shutout innings. Unlike Stroman, Snell had an ugly 5.87 ERA in five spring starts, walking 11 in 23 innings. While the Rays were a money-burning 21-31 the past couple of seasons, when listed as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, the Jays are 49-39, during the same stretch, against southpaws. Expect Stroman to lead them to their first win. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE 10* BREAKFAST CLUB. After the Rockies took the first two games of the series, the Brewers grabbed yesterday's game. This afternoon, I expect them to salvage the series split. While he didn't factor in the decision in either, Anderson pitched fairly well (4 combined runs in 10 1/3 innings, 11 K's) in each of his last two starts vs. the Rockies, his team winning both games. Anderson was solid in the spring, delivering a 2.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The same cannot be said of Senzatella, as he was 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA in the spring, opposing players batting .330 against him. If you've never heard of Senzatella, its because he's never pitched above the AA level. While Senzatella does have good stuff and did have impressive numbers in the minors, this is a big jump for him. Anderson's overall numbers weren't that impressive last season but he closed out the year with a 5-1 record and a 2.56 ERA his last 12 starts. I expect him to get the better of the rookie here, the Brewers finishing on top. 

I'm playing on BOSTON 5* BIG JUICE BLOWOUT. While this line is pretty steep, given the venue and pitching matchup, I believe that it could easily be more expensive. Sale is among the best in the game and he's going to be jacked up to make a good impression on his new team and new fans. He was 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in the spring, striking out an impressive 26 in 21 innings, walking only two. The Sox are 15-6 (+3.6) their last 21 as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range. With the win in the opener, during that stretch, they're also 28-13 (+12.7) against teams from the NL. I expect Sale to "do his thing" and the Sox to stay perfect. 

I'm playing on Colorado/Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total 10* BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair here. Anderson saw the UNDER go 12-6-1 while recording a solid 3.54 ERA and 1.286 WHIP last season. He took the loss in his lone start against the Brewers. However, a closer look shows that he only allowed three hits, while recording 10 K's against just two walks. The game still stayed below the total, a 7-1 final. His opponent that day also happened to be Zach Davies. Davies was outstanding in that 8/24/16 game, allowing just one earned run through six complete innings, recording eight K's. Both Davies and Anderson showed signs in the spring that they're ready to go. Anderson had 16 K's vs. just three walks. Davies had one game where he threw four perfect innings against the Giants, eventually striking out six, while walking only one, in 5 1/3 innings. Look for this one to be lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* GAME OF WEEK. While I respect King Felix, the Astros should have the edge in this one. The Astros have won three straight Opening Day starts. Last year, Keuchel tossed seven innings in a win against the Yankees. The previous season, Keuchel tossed seven innings in beating the Indians. Keuchel had this to say of taking the mound on Opening Day once again, "It's definitely an honor. I like being the guy that our team looks to to start things off and finish things. Keuchel enters this year healthier than last year and ready to go. He was sharp in the spring, delivering a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four starts. Admittedly, Hernandez was also sharp in the spring. He's up against a loaded Houston team, one which spent big money and which is expecting big things. The Astros won 8-4 the last time that they faced Hernandez and they won 5-2 the last time that Keuchel faced the Mariners. I like the moves the Astros made and am expecting them to get off to a fast start. *GOW

I'm playing on Chicago and Cleveland to finish OVER the total 10* TOY. As you know, its been a low-scoring series. Four of the five games have produced six or fewer combined runs. Those results have helped in keeping this O/U line nice and low. With all due respect to the pitchers, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Indians have seen the OVER go 28-18-2 the past few seasons, when playing at home with an O/U line of seven or less. That includes a 5-1 mark this season. Meanwhile, the OVER is 10-4-1 when the Cubs have played a road game with an O/U line of seven or less. Even factoring in the low-scoring playoffs, games here are still averaging 9.5 runs on the season. The Cubs have seen the OVER go 12-3-3 in Arrieta's 18 road starts, the Indians have seen the OVER go 8-6-1 in Tomlin's home starts. While it doesn't always work this way, the batters generally have an advantage when facing the same pitcher twice in a short span. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO 10* PLAYOFF GOY. Needless to say, I respect Korey Kluber. Some of you will recall that I backed the Indians in his Game 1 start against these same Cubs. Kluber was dominant in that game and he's been outstanding during the postseason overall. Kluber's going on short rest here though - and the Cubs are seeing him for the second time in less than a week. While he didn't throw that many pitches in Game 1, due in part because Francona wanted him available here, its still a change to his routine and could effect his rhythm, if only slightly. Just because a pitcher dominates the Cubs once, doesn't mean they can do it twice in less than a week. Just ask Kershaw. He was dominant in a Game 2 victory against Chicago but got roughed up (5 runs, 5 innings) when the Cubs saw him again for Game 6. Lackey's been tough at home all season, as he's got a 2.92 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in 16 starts here - better stats than Kluber has on the road. Unlike Kluber, he's had plenty of rest. Unlike Kluber, the Indians haven't seen him yet. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Cubs have been much better at home than the Indians have been on the road. Note that the Indians are only 5-11 (-5.2) this season, when playing on the road with a line in the +100 to +125 range. They're 27-44 (-13.8) in that role the past few seasons. During that same span, the Indians are also just 18-22 (-7.5) off a shutout win. The Cubs, 42-22 off a loss, know they can ill afford another setback here. Look for them to bounce back, improving to 8-2 the last 10 times that they got blanked in their previous game. 

I'm playing on LA 10* MAIN EVENT. Off back-to-back wins, the Cubs are a step away from the World Series. I don't expect them to get there quite yet though, perhaps not at all. Hendricks has indeed been very good at Wrigley. However, Kershaw got the better of him here less than a week ago and he's (obviously) one of the greatest pitchers of all-time. I expect him to rise to the occasion one more time. In nine starts vs the Cubs, Kershaw has a 1.93 ERA. In his last two against them, he's allowed a single earned run through 15 complete innings, striking out 20 against just five hits and two walks. Speaking of walks, Kershaw has only walked nine batters in 13 road starts this season, a span of 86 innings. Hendricks, on the other hand, walked four in 5 1/3 innings last time out, which happened to the longest he's gone in any start this month. I'm backing the future Hall-Of-Famer.

I'm playing LA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) With an O/U line of seven, runs are expected to be at a premium. In tonight's case, I believe that makes getting an extra +1.5 runs with the home team very attractive. Some of you will recall that I backed the Cubs when these pitchers faced each other at Wrigley on Saturday. Admittedly, Lester was much better than Maeda. Maeda's much better at home than he is on the road though and I expect him to bounce back with a better effort. He's got a solid 3.51 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 16 starts here, not much worse than Lester's 3.17/1.148 stats on the road. Prior to Saturday, Lester's last two starts against the Dodgers, including his most recent at LA, had been decided by a single run. The Dodgers are 14-10 (+2.3) against the moneyline the past 2+ seasons, after allowing double-digits in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back with at least a "cover." 

I'm playing on Toronto and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's opener resulted in a pitcher's duel. In addition to both pitchers being at the top of their game, it was a cold night and the ball wasn't carrying well as a result. The temperature will be considerably warmer this afternoon though, the Jays average more runs (5.1) during the day and Tomlin isn't in the same class as Kluber. Tomlin had a 4.56 ERA in 14 home starts, the OVER going 8-5-1. One of those "overs" was his most recent start against the Jays, a 6-5 loss on 8/20. Tomlin lasted only 4 1/3 innings and gave up three home runs and six earned runs overall, on nine hits. While he's obviously had a great year, Happ's most recent start (6/11/15) here at Cleveland was forgettable. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up four runs. He'll face an Indian lineup that's averaging 5.5 runs per game here. The OVER is 23-11-2 in games here this season when the O/U line was either eight or 8.5. I expect those stats to improve this afternoon.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* SHOWSTOPPER. While I certainly respect Estrada, I don't believe that he's in the same class as Kluber. Estrada was 10-9 this season. Kluber was 19-9. Estrada had an excellent ERA and WHIP but Kluber still beat him in both those categories. Kluber had more K's while allowing fewer HR's and fewer walks. Also, Kluber averaged more innings per start. Estrada only allowed one run on four hits last time out. However, Kluber allowed 0 runs on three hits. While Kluber did struggle at Toronto in July, he bounced back with a much better effort against the Jays here in August, a game won (3-2) by the Indians. The Cleveland bullpen had superior stats on the season than the Jays, beating them in terms or ERA, WHIP and converted save percentage. While the Jays hit .237 and average 4.5 runs on the road, the Indians hit .288 and average 5.6 runs at home. All things considered, this price could easily be higher.

I'm playing on BOSTON 10*. This is a must win game for the Red Sox and I expect them to respond accordingly. Both starters are in excellent current form but with a 2-0 record and 1.42 ERA his last three, Buchholz is throwing as well as anyone right now. While the Indians are great in Cleveland, they're only mediocre on the road. WNote that they're only 4-12 (-10.1) when playing a road game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. While the Indians average only 4.1 rpg on the road, the Sox average 5.9 rpg at home. Even with a loss last time out, their fourth straight, the Sox remain an outstanding 9-2 (+6.3) after losing three or more games in a row. Don't count them out quite yet. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. After dropping Game 1 - and getting embarrassed in the process - the Rangers know they can't afford to lose this afternoon. Not with Darvish on the mound. This is essentially a "must win" game and I expect them to respond with their best effort. Off b2b gems, Darvish is on top of his game. Last time out, he recorded 12 Ks while allowing only three hits, one run and one walk. In his previous start, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits, recording nine K's against one walk. That's 21 K's vs. two walks, five hits and one run over 13 innings. Texas won those games by scores of 3-1 and 5-0. Darvish, who has a 2.45 ERA in seven starts vs. the Jays, will have the advantage of facing the Toronto hitters for the first time in a couple of years. Last time (7/18/14) he saw them, he recorded 12 K's while allowing a single run, the Rangers winning 5-1. The Rangers have been too good at home all year to go down without a fight. Behind a big game from Darvish, look for them to bounce back and even the series. 

I'm playing on SF and NY to finish UNDER the total. The first postseason meeting in 16 years between the Mets and Giants should be a good one. At least, if you like good pitching. We've seen Bumgarner (15-9, 2.78 ERA,  1.024 WHIP) consistently elevate his game in the postseason.  In his last playoff games, Bumgarner is 5-1 with a dominating 0.91 ERA. He's also 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA for his career at Citi Field, including 15 shutout innings here this year. Syndergaard (14-9, 2.61 ERA, 1.155 WHIP) has also tasted postseason success. You may recall that he produced the Mets' only win in the World Series last year, a commanding Game 3 performance against the Royals. Look for this one to live up to its "pitcher's duel" billing, the UNDER improving to 51-26-3 in the Mets' L80 October games.

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Shipley, a former first round (first Nevada Wolfpack player ever selected in 1st rd) pick, believes this is his second chance. He returned to the rotation a couple of starts ago, at PetCo. That didn't go particularly well - although not terribly - as he allowed two earned runs through four complete innings. However, with a start under his belt, the Dbax let him go longer last time out and he was much better. Shipley would go on the road and limit Baltimore to four hits and two runs, through six complete innings. He lost 2-1 but that certainly wasn't his fault. Off that confidence-building start and now having had a chance to gain his rhythm a bit, I expect Shipley to be extremely motivated to make the most of tonight's opportunity. Given the fact that Jackson is 1-3 (SD is 1-4) with a horrific 8.62 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in five road starts, Shipley figures to get considerably more support than he's gotten in either of his two starts, since returning to the rotation. Look for the Dbax to bounce back, improving to 7-2 their last nine when playing at home with an O/U line of 10 or 10.5. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros snapped their 3-game skid with a much needed victory yesterday afternoon. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game and look for them to make it two in a row. McHugh took awhile to get going but he's currently in excellent form. Over his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a superb 1.53 ERA an 0.962 WHIP. The Astros won those three games by a combined score of 14-6, one of those a 6-0 victory over Felix Hernandez and these same Mariners, at SafeCo. With that victory, McHugh is an impressive 9-3 against the M's. That includes a perfect 4-0 record and a dominant 1.08 ERA in four meetings this season. Iwakuma has been solid, but far from spectacular and he's not in nearly as good form as McHugh. Last time out, he allowed six runs (5 earned) in just 3.3 innings, serving up a pair of longballs. These starters opposed each other twice back in the spring and McHugh got the better of Iwakuma both times. With the Astros at 10-4 (20-11 overall) when McHugh starts at home, I'm expecting "more of the same" tonight. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Marlins fell to 500 (76-76) yesterday. They're a profitable 41-34 (+6.6) off a loss this season though and this should be an excellent spot for them to bounce back. Urena struggled on the road last time out. However, he was brilliant in his previous start, which was his most recent here at home. In that game, he limited the Dodgers to a mere four hits through 8 2/3 innings. With a 1.146 WHIP at home, he could easily be better than 1-4 here. Collmenter returned to the rotation last time out after not starting since 2015. He lasted five innings and gave up a pair of home runs. Thats better than he fared in his lone career start at Miami, as he allowed two home runs in four innings in that one, a 10-3 Miami win on 8/17/14. Look for the Urena and the Marlins to cool off the Braves, the Marlins bouncing back and climbing back over the .500 mark. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. While the Sox took yesterday's opener, I expect the O's to bounce back this evening. Gausman was dominant in his last start. He threw eight shutout innings against these same Red Sox, earning a 1-0 win against Porcello. Including six shutout innings in his last home start, he's 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP his last three overall. On the season, he's 6-1 with a stellar 2.27 ERA and 1.051 WHIP. On the other hand, Rodriguez lasted only 2 1/3 innings in his last start, giving up four runs, on eight hits. While he avoided the loss in that game, he's 2-7 with a poor 4.98 ERA in 17 starts (Sox are 6-11) on the season. While it can be tough to beat a team twice in less than a week, I look for Gausman to do just that, the O's improving to 16-6 their last 22 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. 

I'm playing on Houston/Oakland UNDER the total. Prior to yesterday's 5-2 win, the A's had been seeing games on their recent road trip sail over the number. A return to Oakland, where the A's average only 3.4 runs and where the UNDER is 41-31-3 should bring back some lower-scoring games and I expect that to start this evening. Peacock and Cotton aren't exactly household names. However, both are in fine current form. In fact, while the sample size is admittedly small, both have an ERA below two, as starters. Peacock has a 1.86 ERA through two starts this season. Last time out, he limited Texas to a single run on just three hits, through six complete innings. Cotton has a 1.50 ERA through two starts. In his lone home start, he had a 1.42 ERA and 0.632 WHIP. Four of Houston's six visits here this season (and 11 of 16 meetings overall) have stayed below the total. More of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. Off back-to-back losses, the Rangers badly need a victory. This should be an excellent spot to get one. Both starters are in fine current form. Chacin has a 2.75 ERA his last three while Perez has an even better 1.96 mark. The venue figures to strongly favor Perez though. He's 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 15 starts here. The Rangers were 11-4 (+7.4) in those games. A closer look at Chacin's recent success reveals that it has all come at home. On the road, he remains a dismal 1-6 with a 7.40 ERA (1.796 WHIP) through 11 starts, his team going 3-8 (-3.6) in those games. One of Chacin's road losses came back in the spring when these same pitchers opposed each other here on 5/24. Chacin was respectable, allowing three runs through six complete innings. However, Perez was much better, as he tossed six shutout innings. Texas won 4-1. With the Angels, who average just 3.9 rpg vs. southpaws, at 30-44 (-8) on the road and the Rangers at 48-24 (+19.3!) at home, I'm backing Perez again tonight. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. After winning a close one in the opener, the Rockies won a blowout yesterday. This afternoon, I expect them to complete the sweep. Betts is in excellent current form. He beat these same Padres at Petco last time out, allowing two runs through seven complete. In his last start here at Coors, he tossed a complete game (2-hit) shutout. How many pitchers can say that? Afterwards Rockies manager Walt Weiss commented: "He could throw any pitch for a strike at any time. That was outstanding by Chad." Bettis would call it "the best game of his life." He's now 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.565 WHIP his last three, striking out 18 while walking two. Cosart, on the other hand, is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA his last three. In his last two starts, a span of just 7 2/3 innings, he's allowed nine earned runs, walking more batters than he struck out. Considering that the Rockies also have the edge at the plate, this line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Given the pitching matchup, the O's could easily be bigger favorites here. Tillman is 16-5 with a solid 3.68 ERA and 1.252 WHIP on the season. Despite pitching at a more favorable pitcher's park, Andriese is 6-6 with a 4.99 ERA. Tillman shook off a sub-par outing with a very solid effort last time out. He limited the Tigers to just four hits and one run, through six innings, winning 3-1. Andriese also won last time out. However, he only lasted five innings and he again gave up more hits than innings pitched, a regular occurance for him. While Andriese doesn't usually hurt himself with walks, he's extremely hittable. Over his last three starts, he's given up 25 hits in 14 innings. That doesn't bode well against a potent Baltimore offense which hits well in this park. In two starts against Baltimore, both this season, Andriese is 0-2 with a 8.38 ERA, losing 7-3 and 5-0. Last time he faced them, he gave up seven runs in five innings, allowing nine hits. Meanwhile, Tillman dominated the Rays the last time that he faced them, allowing four hits in seven innings and winning 2-1. I'm going with the O's. 

I'm playing on Houston and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. In his years with the Mariners, Felix Hernandez hasn't had the opportunity to pitch in too many "big" games. Thanks to the Mariners' recent hot streak, tonight's game would certainly fall into that category, as the M's suddenly find themselves in the middle of the pennant race. I expect the longtime Mariner ace to bring his "A" game. It surely helps that Altuve, who does it all at the plate (.341,24,94) while also stealing 27 bases, is expected to be out of the lineup. Bregman (8 HR's, 32 RBI's in 47 games) is expected to be out, too. King Felix checks in off six shutout innings against the A's. While he had a forgettable start at Houston last year, he pitched extremely well (6 shutout innings, 8 K's, 4-1 victory) against the Astros, the last time (9/8/14) he faced them here at Seattle. Speaking of "six shutout innings," the M's can't be too happy to see McHugh, as he's already 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA against them this season. Last time he faced them here, this past July, he threw six shutout innings, racking up 10 K's along the way. I'm expecting a pitcher's duel. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While the Sox are mid-sized favorites, I believe the price could easily be higher. Kennedy may have a better recent record than Sale but Sale has been the better pitcher. Though he hasn't been getting the "W's," Sale has looked his old self of late. He's got a 2.52 ERA and 0.92 WHIP his last three starts, averaging better than eight innings per outing. In those 25 innings, he has 28 K's vs. four walks. Kennedy has looked like his old self, too, the 2013 version. (That's not a good thing. Before moving over to pitcher-friendly PetCo to close that season, Kennedy was 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA through 21 2013 starts.) Over his last three starts, despite going 2-0 Kennedy has a 5.30 ERA and 1.766 WHIP. While Sale has averaged better than eight innings in his last three starts, Kenedy has averaged less than six. That's normal for him, however, as he's averaged less than six innings per start on the season - Sale has averaged greater than seven. These pitchers opposed each other here in June. Sale wasn't great that day but he was good enough to beat Kennedy, who served up four home runs. Look for Sale to again outpitch and outlast Kennedy here, the Sox again finishing on top. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. It wasn't "easy" but the Pirates finally snapped their losing skid yesterday. On the other hand, the Reds' woes continued, they've now lost four straight. With some positive momentum in their corner and a "hotter" pitcher on the mound, I look for the Pirates to make it two in a row this evening. While Nova is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts, Straily has a 5.02 ERA and 1.674 WHIP his last three. He gave up seven runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last road start. Over his last three starts, Straily has 13 K's vs. 10 walks, which isn't very good. Nova, conversely, has 16 Ks vs just two walks, over his last three. Nova has allowed two home runs during that time, while Straily has served up five, despite throwing seven fewer innings. Nova is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen which has a respectable 3.51 ERA and 1.354 WHIP, converting 74.2% of save chances. On the other hand, Straily is backed by a Reds bullpen which has a 5.03 ERA and 1.478 WHIP (1.568 on road) and which has converted only 53.5% of save opportunities. When factoring in the Pittsburgh also has a (slight) edge in terms of hitting stats, this price could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates have been on an awful losing streak; I expect it to finally come to an end tonight. Taillon is off an extremely hard-luck loss, as the Pirates fell 1-0 against the Brewers. All Taillon did was allow three hits (0 walks) and one run through six complete innings. Needless to say, he could have fared better. That gives him a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight home starts. He averages better than six innings per start here, doesn't give up many home runs here (4 in eight starts) and doesn't hurt himself by walking batters. Admittedly, Leake was sharp last time out. However, he's still got a 4.56 ERA on the season, a 4.55 mark on the road. One advantage that the Pirates figure to have is that have already seen Leake a few times this season, while Taillon will be making his first start against the Cards. The last time that the Pirates saw Leake they roughed him up for five runs, on nine hits. Pittsburgh won 5-2. Enough's enough. Pirates bounce back. 

I'm playing on SF. Admittedly, the Giants have been pretty bad since the All Star Break. OK. Really bad. I've (successfully) backed them in each of Moore's last two starts though (4-0 win at LA and a 4-2 win vs. Arizona) and I believe that this will be another strong spot to do so. Over those past two games, Moore has allowed a single run in 14 combined innings, striking out 14 while allowing only six hits. While not as dominant as Moore, Bettis also pitched well last time out, a quality start vs. the Nats. However, that was on the heels of a game in which he walked seven batters in five innings. Note that the Giants hit Bettis hard at SF earlier this season and they also did so when they faced him here at Coors last Sept.) Bettis was 0-2 in those games, allowing a combined nine runs, on 16 hits, in 10.3 innings. The Giants should be happy to get back into divisional play, as they're 33-21 (+4.2) against teams from the NL West. Even with yesterday's loss, they're also still 30-18 in day games. (The Rockies dropped to 25-24 in day games with their loss yesterday.) Even with their recent struggles, the Giants are still very much in the thick of the playoff race. Look for the bats to come back to life this afternoon, SF starting the series off with a much needed victory. *GOM

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Yankees beat the O's when these two pitchers opposed each other at NY less than a week ago. Bundy took the loss but neither starter was any good. With this evening's rematch being played at Baltimore, I expect Bundy and the O's to have the advantage. While Bundy is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA in five home starts, Green is 1-3 with a 5.76 ERA in four road starts. The O's average 4.9 rpg game at home and they average 4.8 rpg overall (.267 avg) vs righthanders. The Yankees average 4.4 rpg vs. right-handers (2.54 avg) while managing only 4.0 rpg on the road. Baltimore relievers have a 3.30 ERA at home, converting 80% of save chances here. NY relievers have a 4.02 ERA on the road, converting 76% of saves. The O's have thrived as small-med priced home favorites and I look for them to get it done tonight. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. I won with the Braves yesterday and I'm backing them again today. While it may not be quite as much of a "mismatch" as Teheran vs. Jackson, I believe that the Wisler/Clemens pitching matchup should firmly favor the Braves. 

Wisler has shown that he can pitch. He started out the season quite well. In fact, after eight starts, averaging nearly seven innings per start, he had a 2.98 ERA and 1.012 WHIP. In six May starts, he recorded a 2.51 ERA. He really struggled in June and July though and ended up getting sent down to the minors. As Wisler noted: "There were some things that I needed to fix." Going down to the minors gave him that opportunity. Wisler followed up by saying: "Me going down just allowed me to pitch without having to worry about a lot of things."

While one doesn't want to over-react to one start, Wisler sure looked like he "fixed things" down at Triple-A Gwinnet. He returned to the bigs in time for his last start, an eight-inning 2-hit masterpiece at (normally hitter-friendly) Arizona. Atlanta (interim) manager Brian Snitker commented: "From the get-go, he just looked really focused. He was locked in and it was just like he was on a mission."

Unlike his opponent, Clemens has yet to show that he can pitch deep into a game. Drafted in the seventh round by the Braves back in 2008, he's 6-11 with a 5.37 ERA for his career. This season, he's 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA. (He's got a 4.68 ERA since SD acquired him off waivers in late June.) He's made eight starts on the season and has yet to go more than 5 1/3 innings in any of them. The Padre bullpen entered the series with a 4.41 combined ERA.

The Braves haven't won (or lost) consecutive games for the past 10 days, as they've been going L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W/L/W. With Wisler outlasting Clemens, look for them to snap that streak tonight, winning two in a row for the first time since early August. GOM

I'm playing on ATLANTA. When was the last time that you can remember the Braves favored by this much? If you can't remember, that's OK; its been awhile. That said, I believe Atlanta, which is a profitable 16-7 (+4.1) the past 2+ years when listed as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range, is favored by this much for good reason. Teheran is 0-5 in 13 starts at home this season. Yet, he's got a very solid 3.22 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in those games. (Overall, he's got a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.) The Braves should be extremely motivated to get him a much-deserved win here and this should be an excellent spot to do just that. Jackson has given up 13 earned runs, over just nine innings (13.00 ERA) his last two starts. In those games, he's issued seven walks (against 5 K's) while serving up 16 hits, four of them leaving the yard. On the season, he's got a 5.66 ERA and 1.524 WHIP. While Teheran has 128 K's vs 32 walks, Jackson has 25 K's against 20 walks. Jackson got destroyed when he last saw the Braves and is 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in seven starts against them. Meanwhile, Teheran already beat the Padres this season (at SD) tossing eight extremely solid innings. I look for Teheran to get the better of Jackson this evening, en route to his first home win of the season. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Reds explosion cost me a shot at a million in the DK MLB Finals last night - I had a lineup which included Votto, Hamilton and Duvall but it didn't include Schebler (and my better lineup, unfortunately, included Goldshidmidt instead of Votto). While that had me a little hot under the collar, after getting embarrassed 13-0, I expect the DBax to be feeling much the same way. Both starters bring some pretty poor overall numbers to the table. Bailey has a 5.73 ERA and 1.682 WHIP through five starts. Through 19 starts, Bradley has a 5.06 ERA and 1.571 WHIP. Bailey got crushed last time out, however, while Bradley has now allowed four or fewer earned runs in four straight starts and eight of nine. Last night was the third time in the past three weeks that Arizona allowed double-digits in runs. After losing 15-6, the DBax bounced back with a 9-3 win. Then, after losing 16-2, they bounced back with a 10-6 win. I expect more of the same this afternoon, as the Arizona bats come back to life in a big way, leading to a victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. After droppping the first two games of the series, I look for the Giants to bounce back and score a minor "upset" on Thursday evening. Moore pitched great here at LA earlier last month. In 6 2/3 innings, he limited the Dodgers to a single unearned run, on only four hits. Not all that surprising, given that the Dodgers don't hit southpaws nearly as well as they hit right-handers. LA is 15-15 (-4.4) vs. left-handers, averaging only 4.0 runs in those games. Stripling, who's in the rotation due to injuries to others, hasn't enjoyed pitching at LA nearly as much as Moore did. In six home starts, he's 2-3 with a poor 5.18 ERA. This has been a good role for the Giants as they're 9-5 (+5.2) when playing on the road when the line falls in the +100 to +125 range. No sweep tonight. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. I believe this O/U line is generously high. For starters, neither of these teams score many runs. Chicago manages only 3.8 runs per game vs. right-handed starters, hitting .249. The Phillies are even worse vs. southpaws. They average a mere 3.6 rgp vs. left-handers, hitting for a paltry .246 average. 

Rodon, who has seen seven of his 10 home starts stay below the total, is in excellent current form. He's got a 2.00 ERA his last three starts, all of them of the "quality" variety. He didn't allow a home run in any of those games. 

Admittedly, Thompson, who came over as part of last year's Hamels deal, has struggled thus far. However, he's still a top prospect and the Phillies are still expecting big things from him. Keep in mind that he was 11-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 21 starts this season at Lehigh Valley. That included a perfect 8-0 record with a 1.21 ERA in his last 11 starts. Needless to say, its too early to write him off. Facing a Sox lineup which has scored four or fewer runs in eight of 11 games figures to be just what Thompson needs to "get healthy." 

Both bullpens had yesterday off and both starters will be facing today's opponent for the first time. I look for the final score to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds should have a solid advantage on the mound here. Straily continues to be "money." For the season, the Reds are 15-8 (+12.4) when he's taken the mound, 9-3 at home. In fact, they've won all seven of his starts since the All Star Break, Straily going 5-0 with a stellar 2.25 ERA. Over his last three starts, Straily has 17 K's without walking a single batter. 

Fresh off the disabled list, Holland is making his first start since late June. He had an 8.31 ERA (1.923 WHIP!) in his final three starts before going on the DL and he's 2-4 with a poor 6.31 ERA in eight road starts this season. In three rehab starts, he allowed five runs in 10 innings. Manager Jeff Banister acknowledged: "We're hopeful he'll be ready to go, but when a guy has worked his way back from the disabled list you don't know what's going to happen until you get through it. It's a much different pace pitching back in a major league game."

The Rangers, who just dropped two of three against Tampa continue to have trouble with sub-500 teams. The Reds may have gotten pounded yesterday but they're still 21-14 since the All Star Break. I expect Straily to get the better of Holland, the Reds bouncing back and finishing on top. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Orioles pounded out 18 hits in yesterday's 13-5 victory. Six home runs in yesterday's game brings them to 183 on the season, tops in the majors. I expect the O's to have the advantage again this evening.

After hitting two home runs yesteday,  J.J. Hardy had this to say: "It was big. We haven't been swinging the bats all that great, and to bust out like that. Hopefully, it keeps going and we can keep that confidence."

Facing McHugh should help the O's stay hot. McHugh, 0-3 his last three starts overall, is 3-6 with a 5.23 ERA on the road this season. 

Its true that Miley has struggled since coming over to Baltimore. He's pitched very well against the Astros in two starts this season though and has a 2.70 ERA in six career starts against them. The fact that the Astros average only 4.1 rpg vs. southpaws works in his favor. 

The O's are now 40-19 at home, best in the bigs. They're also 53-30 (+18.5) at home when the line ranged from +100 to -125 the past 2+ seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 10*

 I'm playing on SF. Both these teams lost again yesterday. Each has been terrible since the All Star Break. The Mets are 13-18, the Giants 9-21. Despite the struggles of their respective teams, both today's starters have continued to shine. While both teams could badly use a victory, I believe the Giants will be the team which gets it.

Bumgarner has never lost against the Mets. In five starts against them, he's 4-0 with a 1.03 ERA. He hasn't allowed a run against them since 2013, tossing a combined 15 shutout innings in his last two starts against them. That said, DeGrom has also been dominant against the Giants. 

While Bumgarner and DeGrom both have outstanding numbers, I will note that Bumgarner's home numbers (1.57 ERA, 0.829 WHIP) are a little better than DeGrom's 2.83/1.186 stats on the road. 

Perhaps more importantly, note that the Giants score considerably more runs vs. right-handers than the Mets do vs. southpaws. NY averages 3.6 rpg vs. left-handers, going 14-16 on the season.

While the Giants played an afternoon game here at SF yesterday, the Mets played a late game at Arizona. I believe it all adds up to a win for the home team. 

I'm playing on Philly and LA to finish UNDER the total. The Phillies have been on an extended "over" streak but I expect it to come to an end this evening. These starters just faced each other, at LA, a week ago. That 8/9 game, which had a modest wind blowing out to center, had an O/U line of seven. Tonight, we're getting a far more generous O/U line to work with and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. 

True, this game is at Philadelphia instead of pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. However, the fact is that Citizen's Bank Park hasn't been as hitter friendly as many tend to imagine. In fact, ESPN's Park Factor stats show LA ranking as the #27th most hitter friendly (4th best for pitchers) with a 0.838 PF but Philadelphia being even worse for hitters, ranking #28th with a 0.832 PF ranking. Admittedly, that may be a bit of an anomoly. (LA is consistently pitcher friendly while Philadelphia ranked as the 9th most hitter friendly environment last year.) However, the fact remains that games here are averaging only 7.7 runs per game on the season. 

Its true that hitters can sometimes gain an advantage by seeing a pitcher twice in a short span. However, its certainly not always the case. In this case, I expect a much better pitching performance. Note that both bullpens have been respectable on the season and that they both had yesterday off. 

Velasquez is one of the Phillies who has contributed to keeping games here on the low-scoring side this season. He's 4-1 in nine starts here with a dominating 1.72 ERA and 0.979 WHIP. He'll be determined to bounce back from last week's poor effort and will be happy to be back on his home mound. His last start here had a final score of 3-2. Meanwhile, Maeda has better road numbers than he does at home. In 11 road starts, he's 7-2 with a 3.28 ERA and a stellar 0.978 WHIP. 

The Dodgers gave up 11 runs against Pittsburgh on Sunday. The last time that they allowed double-digit runs was a game at Coors. Maeda came back and pitched a gem (given the ballpark) the next game, a final of 4-2, bringing the UNDER to 3-0 when LA was off a game in which it allowed double-digits. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins earned a rare win against the Royals yesterday. I look for them to follow it up by taking this afternoon's rubber game.

Admittedly, Santiago hasn't pitched that well in two starts since coming over to the Twins. I'm willing to cut him a little slack though. Both those games came against offenses which have been considerably more potent than KC so far this season. (The Royals entered the weekend batting .246 on the road, while averaging a mere 3.1 rpg.) Also, prior to those two games, Santiago had been pitching decently. In fact, he'd allowed three or fewer earned runs in six straight starts (0 in 3 of those) and he's still allowed four or fewer earned runs in eight straight. Going back a little further reveals that he's allowed four or fewer earned runs in 10 of 11 starts, two or less in seven of those. 

Needless to say, Santiago, who was 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA in six July starts, will be anxious to earn his first victory with his new team. Note that he's 2-1 with a stellar 2.23 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Royals and that he won his lone start against them this season. 

Volquez has also pitched well against today's opponent. He's in terrible current form though. While Santiago may not have been very good his last couple of outings, Volquez has been downright terrible in three straight starts. During that 17-inning span, he's given up a whopping 30 hits. Not surprisingly, he's 0-2 (team is 0-3) with an ugly 8.47 ERA and 2.118 WHIP his last three. 

Santiago's teams are 16-8 (+8.6) when he takes the mound, including 8-4 (+3.8) in "home" games. On the other hand, the Royals are 3-7 (-3.6) when Volquez has started away from KC. Not surprising, given that they don't hit well on the road and that Volquez has an ugly 6.67 ERA and 1.729 WHIP in those 10 games.

Volquez will take on a Twins' team that is showing a lot of power these days. Minnesota hit another three home runs yesterday and ranks among the league's more powerful teams in recent weeks. As a very small favorite, I like the Twins to finish on top. 10* AL Central GOY

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I believe the A's are providing us with very fair value in Friday night's all-southpaw affair. While Seattle hits better against right-handers than against left-handers, the opposite is true of Oakland. The A's are batting .267 against southpaws, while averaging a healthy 4.6 runs. Those numbers are much better than their numbers vs. right-handers. Meanwhile, Seattle is averaging a mere 3.9 rpg vs. southpaws, hitting a paltry .240. Those numbers are much worse than their numbers vs. right-handers.

Manae has quietly been pretty solid of late. Last time out, he allowed two runs through six complete innings. Unfortunately, he didn't receive any run support though and got stuck with a hard-luck loss. Manae may not have won any of his last seven starts but he's got a respectable 3.53 ERA during that period. In 10 home starts this season, he's got a 3.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The A's are 6-4 (+2.2) in those games.

Miranda, who recently came over in the Miley trade after failing to crack the Baltimore rotation, can't expected to be in a very good rhythm. The former Cuban-defector pitched in Tuesday's 15-inning win over Detroit and his lone start on the season came on 8/4. While he was solid in that game, his Seattle debut, he was only 4-7 19 starts at Triple-A Norfolk and isn't considered to be an "elite prospect." 

The M's last played here for a 3-game series in May. At the time, Seattle was hot and came away with a 3-0 sweep. One of those wins came against Manae, who was making just his second career start. This time, it the M's who have a pitcher making his second career start. Manae has gained a lot of confidence since that time and I expect he and the A's to get some "payback." (Personal Favorite) 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. There has been a pitching change for Seattle in this one. I still believe that the A's are providing us with very fair value.

Manae has quietly been pretty solid of late. Last time out, he allowed two runs through six complete innings. Unfortunately, he didn't receive any run support though and got stuck with a hard-luck loss. Manae may not have won any of his last seven starts but he's got a respectable 3.53 ERA during that period. In 10 home starts this season, he's got a 3.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The A's are 6-4 (+2.2) in those games.

Weiland goes instead of Miranda and that's likely not a good thing for Seattle. Indeed, Weiland had an ugly 5.38 ERA in 22 games for Triple-A Tacoma. He also had an 8.31 ERA in two starts (Dodgers) last year. 

The M's last played here for a 3-game series in May. At the time, Seattle was hot and came away with a 3-0 sweep. One of those wins came against Manae, who was making just his second career start. Manae has gained a lot of confidence since that time and I expect he and the A's to get some "payback." (Personal Favorite) 

I'm playing on KC. The Royals got back on track with a 3-2 win yesterday and I expect them to have a significant advantage in this evening's rubber game. 

Duffy has been "lights out" lately. All season, for that matter. He's 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.857 WHIP his last three starts. The Royals are a perfect 8-0 the last eight times that he's taken the mound. For the season, Duffy is 8-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.986 WHIP. KC is 13-3 (+10.7) in those games. That includes a perfect 3-0 record in games against the White Sox. Last time he faced the Sox, Duffey threw six shutout innings, while recording 10 K's. Overall, his teams are 9-3 (+6.3) in 12 starts vs. Chicago. 

Gonzalez hasn't had nearly as much success against today's opponent as Duffy has. Indeed, his teams are only 1-6 (-.5.4) in seven starts vs. KC. That includes an 0-2 mark this season, both setbacks coming against Duffy. Though he hasn't pitched badly, Gonzalez has been the victim of poor run support, a likely problem again here. It doesn't help that he's backed by a Chicago bullpen which has been terrible on the road all season. 

While the Sox are 1-9 (-7.5) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, the Royals are 5-0 as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Knowing how much better they are at home and they take to the road for six games after this one, I look for the Royals to close out the homestand with a victory. 10* GOW

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Analysis before 9am PST

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Twins are off a (rare) good road trip. I believe that the Astros are favored here for good reason though. After getting roughed up at Detroit two outings ago, McHugh bounced back with a quality start against Toronto last time out. It was his fourth quality start in his last five and he's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his past nine. Going back further shows that he's allowed four or fewer earned runs in 17 of his last 18. The same can't be said of Duffey; he's allowed five or more earned runs in each of his last three starts. He's got a horrendous 14.91 ERA and 2.795 WHIP during that stretch. Yikes. McHugh is 3-0 (team is 4-0) with a 3.04 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in four starts vs. the Twins. The Astros won those four games by a combined score of 38-13, every win coming by more than a run. Look for McHugh to get the better of Duffey tonight, the Astros bouncing back with an important victory. 10* 

I'm playing on TB. Sometimes life just isn't fair. Archer is 1-8 in 11 home starts, despite having a soiid 3.03 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in those games. Berrios, on the other hand, is 2-0 in three road starts, despite having an awful 9.00 ERA. In five starts overall, Berrios has a 8.57 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. Note that Berrios is averaging 4.2 innings per start and that the Twins bullpen has an ERA above five on the road this season. Meanwhile, Archer is 0-2 in his last two games, despite continuing to pitch well. He's now got a 2.66 ERA and a 0.836 WHIP in his last three starts. I expect the Rays to finally provide Archer, who has long enjoyed success against the Twins, with some support here. He's 4-1 with a stingy 1.78 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in five career starts vs. the Twins. With Minnesota at an ugly 29-50 (15.5) vs right-handers, I expect Archer to improve on those stats here. 10* 

I'm playing on TB. The Twins took three of four from the Tribe. While that was pretty impressive, they did lose yesterday's game by a 9-2 score. So, they don't bring the type of positive momentum into this series that the Rays (who have won two straight and six of eight) do. Perhaps more importantly, a closer look at the Cleveland series shows that the Twins were matched up against four right-handed starters. Thats noteworthy as the Twins entered yesterday's game averaging 4.8 rpg vs. right-handers but they enter today's game averaging only 4.1 rpg vs. southpaws. Snell, a southpaw, has a 2.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP his last three starts. He's only given up two home runs in nine starts this season and he'll have the advantage of facing the Twins for the first time. Admittedly, Santana, who has given up 13 long balls on the season, is also in great current form. That said, he got rocked by the Rays back in June and has an ugly 5.48 ERA in 16 career starts against them. Rays keep on rolling for another day. 10* 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Pomeranz has yet to win since coming over to the Red Sox but this should be a great spot for him to get the monkey off his back. For starters, he's dominated Seattle over his career. He's made two starts against the Mariners, one in 2014 and one in 2015, and he didn't allow a single run in either of him. His teams won those games by a combined score of 14-0. Pomeranz allowed a mere four hits in the two games combined, a span of 12 complete innings. He also recorded 11 K's without walking a single batter. It doesn't get much better. Pomeranz, who will be anxious to secure a win for his new team, will square off against a rookie pitcher making his Seattle debut and first career start. While Seattle averages a mere 3.7 rpg vs. southpaws, the Sox average 4.9. All things considered, the price could easily be higher. In Ortiz's final game in Seattle, look for Boston to emerge victorious. 10* 

I'm playing HOUSTON on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) While I like the Astros' chances of winning this game "outright," I prefer to lay the reasonable price to get the extra +1.5 runs. All three games in this series have been tight. Two of them had scores of 2-1 and the other had a score of 3-1. The Astros are 5-0 in Fiers' last five here and 9-2 against the moneyline in Fiers' home starts on the season. A closer look reveals that both of the losses were by a single run, too. They lost his first home start by a score of 3-2, back in April. Next, the Astros won Fiers' next four home starts before falling 2-1 to Texas. Since then, as mentioned, they've won his last five in a row here. In other words, the Astros would be a PERFECT 11-0 in Fiers' home starts, if getitng +1.5 runs with each of them. Happ's teams are 1-3 his last four starts against Houston and the lone win was by a single run. Meanwhile, Fiers dominated the Jays (and Happ) in his lone start against them, allowing only two hits and one run through seven complete innings, en route to a 6-1 victory. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs but expecting not to need them. 10* 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Jays got a dominant effort from Stroman in yesterday's opener. However, it wasn't enough, as Houston won 2-1. I expect the Astros to have a more decided advantage this evening. Off back-to-back 10-strikeout performances, the first Astro to do so in more than five years, McCullers is in excellent form. He's 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA his last six starts, striking out 50 in 36 innings. In fact, he allowed just one run in five of those six starts. On the other hand, Dickey got rocked last time out. In 5 2/3 innings, he gave up seven runs. six of them earned. Over that short span, he walked four batters while serving up a pair of long balls. Over his last three starts, he's 0-3 with an awful 10.43 ERA. McCullers is 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA here at Houston. Going back further finds that he's never allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 19 career home starts, a Houston record. Youth triumphs over experience in this one. 9*

I'm playing Cincinnati on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) The Reds have won seven of their last 10. They're also 7-3 (+5.2) when Straily has started at home this season. Given that Straily has a 1.31 ERA and 0.774 WHIP his last three starts and that Wainwright has a 6.14 ERA on the road this season, the Reds have an excellent opportunity to stay hot. While I like the Reds' chances of winning this one "outright," there are a number of reasons why I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. Here are a few of them. Wainwright is in good form right now and he's won each of his last two starts by a single run. Likewise, two of Straily's last three starts have been decided by a single run. Wainwright's last three starts vs. the Reds? All decided by a single run. Overall, the Reds have seen three of their last four decided by one run while the Cards have seen three of five decided by a single run. All things considered, this is a very reasonable price to be getting an extra +1.5 runs here. 9*

I'm playing on Atlanta and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. Cole has made three career starts against Atlanta. None of those three games produced more than five combined runs. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair here. Cole checks in off back-to-back gems. Last time out, he threw a complete game 3-hitter, limiting the Mariners to a single run. He's got a stellar 2.78 ERA on the season and he's only allowed three home runs in 15 starts, none in his recent ones. Cole, who will be facing a mostly punchless Braves' offense, has the support of a Pittsburgh bullpen which has a 2.95 ERA on the road, converting 15 of 18 save chances. Foltynewicz has seen the UNDER go 7-3-2 on the season. While he's had some issues with the long ball on the road, he's been stingy here at Atlanta. In five home starts, he's got a 2.83 ERA and 0.977 WHIP, allowing just three home runs here, compared to 10 on the road. As for Cole's three career starts vs. Atlanta, those games had scores of 3-0, 3-2 and 3-2, all in favor of the Pirates. Cole was 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. I'm expecting a similar result here. 9*

I'm playing on KC/Texas to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's game resulted in a pitcher's duel. I expect the opposite to be true on a hot Sunday afternoon in Texas. Gee has some pretty brutal numbers. He's 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.893 WHIP. Not surprisingly, four of his six starts finished above the total. He's not getting any better either. After getting rocked again last time out, he's got a 7.24 ERA and 2.048 WHIP his last three starts, ALL three of them producing a minimum of 13 combined runs. Harrell pitched well at Minnesota last time out but home hasn't been very sweet to him. In two starts here, he's got a 5.58 ERA. Both games finished above the number, most recently an 11-2 loss vs. Colorado. The OVER is 28-19-3 here on the season and I expect those stats to improve here. 10* 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Pirates to bounce back with a victory this afternoon. Liriano struggled last time out and is admittedly rather inconsistent. He's capable of stepping up and dominating though and has still delievered quality starts in two of his last three outings. While all big league pitchers are capable of pitching well on any given day, Garza, in my opinion, is ess likely to do so. He's 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.677 WHIP. He got hit hard when he faced Lirano and the Pirates nine days ago. Liriano, on the other hand, struck out 13 Brewers without walking a batter. With neither starter likely to go the distance, note that the Pirate bullpen has far superior road numbers than the Milwaukee relievers have here at home. No sweep today. 10*

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While the Sox have had their way with the Twins this season, I expect things to change here. In fact, given the current form of the two starters, this price could easily be much higher.  Santana checks in with a stellar 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP his last three starts. He's pitched much better than his record indicates. He tossed a full nine innings last time out, allowing two runs. On the other hand, Rodon lasted only five innings last time out but gave up 12 hits (2 HR's) and six runs (5 earned) in the process. He's got a 6.06 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. Unlike Santana, he's more deserving of his poor record. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Twins have enjoyed a solid month. I expect them to close it out with a victory. 10* 

I'm playing on NY. Perhaps its his age and/or physique but Colon never seems to get much respect. That lack of respect often leads to value at the betting window. I believe he's under-valued once again today. For the season, the Mets are 7-3 (+4.6) when Colon pitches at home, a profitable 13-7 (+6.3) overall. In 10 home starts, he's got a solid 3.25 ERA and 1.193 WHIP. Last time out, he limited a tough St. Louis team to just three hits and one run, through seven complete innings. He recorded eight K's without walking a batter. A dominant effort.

While he wasn't as good as Colon, De La Rosa also pitched well in his last start. He allowed 2 runs, 1 earned, on four hits, through 6 1/3 innings. He struck out four, while walking three. Quality starts like that one have been few and far between for De La Rosa though. He's 5-7 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.761 WHIP on the season, averaging only 5.1 innings per start. He can't really say thats all due to pitching at Coors either, as he's got a poor 5.74 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in eight road starts. After dropping three straight, the Mets badly need a win. With a 54-44 (+11.4) record vs. southpaws the past couple of seasons, I expect them to get it. 10* 

I'm playing on NY/Colorado OVER the total. 10* Analysis before 8am PST 7/29. 

I'm playing on SF. The Giants have taken six of the last 10 home meetings with the Nats and I expect them to have an edge in this evening's opener. Cueto is having an outstanding season. He's 13-2 with a 2.53 ERA, the Giants winning 17 of his 20 starts. At home, he's 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. He averages nearly eight innings per start here (7.8) and he's only given up two home runs (and only 8 walks) in more than 70 home innings. He allowed a single unearned run through six innings last time out, striking out nine Yankees in the process. The Nats know all about that. In Cueto's last two starts against them (2014 and 2015) he allowed ZERO runs through 16 complete innings, allowing only six combined hits while striking out 20. Cueto got the "W" in both games, winning 5-0 and 1-0, outpitcher Scherzer and Gonzalez. Roark has been very solid all season, just not in Cueto's class. Also, he wasn't sharp last time out, allowing five runs in five innings, while also serving up a pair of long-balls. Given Cueto's numbers, this line could easily be higher. 10* 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I lost with the Astros yesterday but I'm coming right back with them today. Fister tossed seven shutout innings in his last start, a 7-0 win at Oakland. In his most recent home start, he suffered a tough luck loss, allowing just three hits and two runs through eight complete. He's 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts. In that 20 inning stretch, he didn't allow a single home run. For the season, he's 10-6 (team is 13-6) with a solid 3.42 ERA and 1.225 WHIP. Sabathia, who got hammered when he pitched here back in 2014, has fallen on hard times. He's 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA his last three starts. The Astros have been profitable off a loss and I look for them to bounce back with a big win. 10* 

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Phillies won yesterday's game by a 4-0 score. They're just 10-20 (-5.4) their last 30 off a shutout win though; I expect the Marlins to return the favor this evening. Eickhoff has the potential to be quite good, when he's on. However, he hasn't been "on" for a long time now. He got rocked by these same Marlins in his last start, falling to 0-2 with an ugly 8.27 ERA his last three starts. Now, Eickhoff hits the road, where he's 2-6 with a poor 5.51 ERA, through nine starts. Koehler won't win any Cy Young awards. He easily outpitched Eickhoff last game though, allowing one earned run on just two hits, through eight innings. For the season, he's got a 4.22 ERA at home. Not great, but far better than Eickhoff's mark on the road. The Marlins' bullpen has superior numbers to the Phillies' bullpen. Additionally, the Marlins hit for a better average and score more runs. After getting blanked in consecutive games, look for the bats to come back to life and the Marlins to bounce back with a big win. 10* 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros are rolling right now. They just swept the Angels and are now 10 games above .500 for the first time this season. They're still chasing the Rangers though, who remain 2.5 games ahead of them. Knowing that Texas is about to begin a friendlier part of its schedule, the Astros know they need to keep their foot on the gas. I expect them to do just that. 

Keuchel has turned the corner. He's got a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP his last three starts. He's also dominated the Yankees. In five starts against them, he's got a 1.22 ERA with a 0.757 WHIP. The Astros have won his last three starts against NY by a combined score of 23-4. 

Pineda, on the other hand, is 1-2 (team is 1-3) with a 5.79 ERA in four starts vs. Houston. While he pitched well last time out, that was at NY. On the road, he's 1-5 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.476 WHIP. With Pineda averaging only 5 1/3 innings per road start, note that the Astros bullpen has a home ERA (2.61, 0.944 WHIP) which is more than two runs lower than the Yankees' bullpen's road ERA of 4.83.

Whether or not top prospect Alex Bregman (who has just been called up) gets in the game, there will be a buzz at the ballpark. Expect Keuchel to continue his success against the Yankees, the Astros staying hot for at least another day. 10* GOW

I'm playing on the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. These teams first need to finish last night's game, which was suspended at 3-3, after eight complete innings. After they get through that one, I expect the Sox to have the edge in "today's" game. Quintana says that he wants to stay in Chicago. However, a trade to a contender probably wouldn't hurt his feelings. Either way, as he says, "he's here now" and I expect him to continue to pitch well. Note that he's 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's got a 3.25 ERA to go along with a stellar 0.904 WHIP in eight home starts. Those numbers look even better when we compare them to Sanchez's numbers. Sanchez is 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA his last three starts and he's 1-5 with an 8.03 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in eight road starts, the Tigers losing seven of those. Note that Sanchez is also 2-6 with a poor 5.26 ERA in 10 career appearances against Chicago. The Sox bullpen has been much better than the Detroit bullpen. Regardless of how the suspended game plays out, I look for Quintana and co. to take this one. 10* 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series. However, I fully expect the Jays to avoid the sweep, as they should have a major advantage in this afternoon's all-southpaw affair. 

While Happ never gets much credit, he's been extremely consistent and he remains in excellent current form. He's 2-0 (Jays are 3-0) in his last three starts, posting a stellar 1.96 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. During that 3-game stretch, he has 25 K's against only two walks. 

Yes, Happ got hit (twice) by a line drive last time out. He's reported to be fine though and has had a couple of extra days off. For the season, he's 7-1 in nine home starts, the Jays winning eight of those. Overall, he's 12-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 19 starts. 

Miley is 0-3 with a 4.42 ERA his last three starts and he's got an even worse 5.36 ERA on the season. That includes a 5.45 ERA in day games and a 5.75 ERA on the road. Indeed, with an 0-5 record and a 5.60 ERA in his last five starts, his days in the rotation may be numbered. A bad day here won't help. 

Note that Donaldson, Encarncion AND Tulowitzki have all taken Miley deep in the past, Edwin and Tulo (and Barney, who is projected to lead off) hitting for extremely high averages against him. Overall, he's 1-2 with an ugly 6.98 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.

While I generally don't pay too much attention to how teams fare on a certain day of the week, I will note that Seattle has struggled on Sundays, going 4-11 (-9.4) while Toronto is 11-5 (+4.8.) Though it didn't help them yesterday, I do feel that the early start time favors the Jays over their west-coast based guests. 

Happ, who spent part of last season with Seattle, won by a score of 14-4 the last time (2014) he started against the M's, allowing just two runs through seven complete innings. Facing a Seattle team which struggles against southpaws, I expect him to "do his thing" once again, the Jays bouncing back with a much-needed win. 10* GOM

I'm playing on WASHINGTON on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Nats should bounce back in decisive fashion here. With a 0.90 ERA his last three starts, Scherzer is currently in top form. Jackson has only made one start since 2014. While he did manage to earn a victory, allowing five walks was a warning sign. The Nats bullpen has a 2.87 ERA, 2.16 (0.946 WHIP!) here at Washington. SD relievers have a combined 4.54 ERA and a 1.403 WHIP. Throw in the fact that the Nats also hit considerably better against rh'ers than do the Padres and this one should be one-sided. 10* 

I'm playing on SF/NY OVER the total. The Yankees have been on an extended 'under' streak but that should change this afternoon. Samardzija has a 4.82 ERA over his last three starts, all three of them finishing above the total. Last time out, he gave up two home runs, while walking four, in just five innings. Samardzija last faced the Yankees last August. He gave up nine runs in 4 2/3 innings. Nova is off a solid effort at Baltimore. However, he's still got a 4.87 ERA on the season and he's still seen the OVER go 4-2-1 here at NY. SF afternoon games have been flying 'over' the total all season, going 19-12-1, while averaging 9.4 runs. On a hot afternoon with the wind blowing out, I expect this one to hit double-digits. 10* 

PITCHING CHANGE NOTICE, PLAY STILL ACTIVE: There has been a pitching change in this one, with Jeff Samardzija out for the Giants and Johnny Cueto now going. I’m going to keep this wager (you'll have to re-bet, due to the pitching change) after a strong start to the season Cueto has been scuffling over the last month, posting a poor 5.00 ERA over his last four combined starts. Also, the heat/wind factor can't be overlooked, as I expect both to come into play here.

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Marlins are rolling these days and this figures to be an excellent opportunity for them to "stay hot." The Mets have some tough starters but Verrett isn't usually one of them. Even after a solid outing at Philadelphia last time out, he's still 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.901 WHIP in five road starts. The Mets are 1-4 in those games and 0-3 his last three starts overall. On the other hand, the Marlins are 3-0 the last three times that Conley has taken the mound, Conley posting a stellar 2.12 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. Conley has made two starts vs. the Mets and hasn't allowed a single run in 13 innings. To go along with his 0.00 ERA, he's struck out 15 while walking only one. These two starters were involved in a pitcher's duel back in the spring, at NY, neither factoring in the decision. With Conley currently in much better form, and now at home, I look for him to get the better of Verrett in this evening's rematch. 10* 

I'm playing on Baltimore and NY to finish OVER the total. With yesterday's 5-0 win, the Yankees have now seen six straight games stay below the total. The Orioles' "under" streak is even longer; they've seen eight straight fall below the number. I expect those streaks to finally come to an end this afternoon though. Sabathia has been horrible of late. He's 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.824 WHIP his last three starts. He'll face a Baltimore team which has averaged a healthy 5.1 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, one which has seen the OVER go 17-8-2 when playing during the afternoon. Admittedly, Tillman has been pretty sharp of late. He's rarely fares well vs. NY though. The last time that the Yankees faced him was on 6/3 and they took him deep three times in 5 2/3 innings. He'd allow five runs overall, a game which finished with a score of 6-5. In 18 starts vs. the Yankees, he's got a poor 4.87 ERA and 1.602 WHIP. In eight starts at NY, he's seen the OVER go 6-1-1. On a warm afternoon, I look for the bats to come to life and for the teams to combine for double-digits in runs. 10* 

I'm playing on Toronto and Arizona to finish OVER the total. I expect the bats to come to life this afternoon. Corbin gave up seven runs (6 earned) last time out, lasting only four innings. Arizona lost 13-7. He's now 0-6 with an ugly 7.15 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in nine home starts, six of them finishing above the total. Twelve of his 18 starts overall have finished OVER the number. Stroman had seemingly been making some progress but he got rocked again last time out, giving up seven runs (6 earned) in 4 2/3 innings. He served up three home runs, en route to an 8-7 Toronto loss. Eleven of his 19 starts have topped the total and he's got a poor 5.33 ERA on the road. Games are averaging 10.3 here on the season and this one should also hit double-digits. 10*

I'm playing on Atlanta and Cincinnati to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's game produced double-digits in runs and I look for today's to do the same. Reed has made five starts and all five of them finished above the total. He's 0-4 with an awful 8.39 ERA and 1.865 WHIP in those games. In less than 25 innings, he's served up nine home runs. Reed has been particularly brutal here at Cincinnati. In two starts here, he's 0-2 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP, allowing four home runs in just nine innings. Jenkins has only made one major league start. While he was solid, he lasted only 4 2/3 innings. Not surprising, given that he's only thrown more than 50 innings twice since late May. He'll be backed by an Atlanta bullpen which has a 4.20 ERA and 1.467 WHIP on the season. The Reds' bullpen is worse. Cincinnati relievers have a 5.49 ERA and 1.563 WHIP on the season, converting less than half of their save opportunities. Games here are averaging 9.7 runs on the season and this one should exceed that mark. 10* 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Royals bounced back with an important win yesterday. However, both teams have been much better in their own ballparks this season and the Tigers should have a significant advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. While Ventura actually did beat Fulmer (both pitched well) at KC last month, Fulmer has been much better overall and is currently in far superior form. He's 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.096 WHIP on the season. He's got a 1.04 ERA at home and he's also got a 1.04 ERA (0.808 WHIP) his last three starts overall. Ventura, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.40 ERA his last three starts and he's 2-5 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.565 WHIP on the road overall. While the Tigers have thrived as mid-sized home favorites, the Royals have struggled as underdogs in +125 to +150 range. Look for Fulmer to avenge last month's loss. 10* 

I'm playing on LA and Arizona to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's series opener produced 20 runs. This one figures to also hit double-digits. Bradley has made five home starts and all five of them finished above the total. He's got an ugly 5.87 ERA in those games, allowing nine home runs. McCarthy has still only made two starts since the spring of 2015, due to Tommy John surgery. While he fared decently in those, they were both at home. Now, he's at Arizona, a venue which can be dangerous to opposing pitchers. Also, note that he was much worse in his second start, claiming he "had no feel for any pitches." Games here are averaging 10.5 runs per game on the season and all signs point to another relatively high-scoring affair. 10* 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. While the Marlins took yesterday's series opener, the Cards should have the edge this evening. Wainwright, who has a 2.93 ERA in nine home starts, not allowing a home run in any of those, is in excellent form. Last time out, he allowed one run through seven complete innings. In his previous start, he tossed seven shutout innings. The same cannot be said for Koehler. Over his last three starts, he's got a terrible 7.50 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. While Wainwright is 4-2 with a 2.47 ERA vs. the Marlins, Koehler is 1-2 with a 7.56 ERA vs. the Cards. Throw in the fact the Cards average 5.3 runs per game vs. right-handers, as compared to Miami's 4.1 per game, and this price could easily be higher. 10* 

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Admittedly, Archer's got a terrible record. True, he's really struggled on the road. However, you might be surprised to learn that he's still got a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in nine home starts. He's averaged better than six innings per home start, striking out 73 in 56 2/3 innings. The second half provides an opportunity for a fresh start and this is a terrific matchup for Archer to take advantage of. Note that Archer was at his best when he last faced the O's. He tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way while allowing just five hits, en route to a 2-0 TB win. Also, note that Archer had 10 K's, over 5 2/3 shutout innings, in his most recent home start, prior to the break. So, despite the overall inconsistency, there are definitely some positives. Its a lot harder to make that case for Gallardo. In five road starts, he's got a 7.83 ERA and 1.739 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games and doesn't have the type of stuff to dominate hitters. I expect Archer to get the better of Gallardo, the Rays earning a much needed win to start the second half. 10* 

 I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The pitching matchup should favor the Reds in this one. Desclafini is 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA in six starts. In two home starts, he's 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA. In his last two starts before the break he was holding his own against the likes of the Cubs and the Nats, a pair of top teams in the N.L. Now, he gets a favorable matchup against Milwaukee, a team averaging a mere 3.6 runs per game on the road. Indeed, the Brewers have all kinds of trouble away from Milwaukee, going 15-27. That includes an 0-4 mark when Garza has started on the road. He's got a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in those games. While Garza gave up three home runs in five innings in his most recent start, Desclafini has only served up three in 36+ innings. Garza got hammered each of the last two times he faced the Reds, late last August and early last September. In just over eight combined innings, he allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits, walking five while striking out only four. That's 23 baserunners in 8 1/3 innings. I'm going with Desclafini. 10*

I'm playing on CHICAGO. After dropping Friday's opener, the Sox bounced back to take yesterday's game. I expect them to also have the edge for this afternoon's rubber game. Shields has turned things around nicely. Over his last two starts, he's got a 2.13 ERA, going six or more innings in each. The Sox won both those games, most recently an 8-2 win over the Yankees. Foltynewicz gave up four home runs in his last start. Not good. The Sox have the better hitting lineup and they also have the better bullpen. With the Braves now 16-36 (-17.4) their last 52 games against A.L. teams, I'm backing the Sox. 10*

I'm playing on Tampa and Boston to finish UNDER the total. These same two starters opposed each other back in the spring. The wind was gusting out to center, yet the O/U line was 8.5 and one had to lay some extra juice to play the 'under.' We're getting a far more generous line this afternoon and I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Both starters are better than they've shown recently. Price has responded from a bad game at Texas a few starts ago by recording 20 K's against just two walks over his last two starts. While he's struggled of late, Odorizzi has been much better during the day than he has at night. In seven afternoon starts, he's 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.03 WHIP compared to a 1-2 record with a 4.83 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 11 starts under the lights. Look for both starters to close out the first half with an improved effort, the final combined score staying below the number. 10*