I'm playing on Stl/LA OVER the total. Last night's game was low-scoring and many will be expecting another pitcher's due; tonight. However, I expect to see some more runs this evening. Note that we're now working with a lower O/U line than last night. Keep in mind that both these offenses can really hit. The Dodgers score more runs per game than any other team in the NL. Only Houston averages more in the AL. The Cards are more than capable at the plate themselves. Buehler can be tough. No question. That said, five of his last six starts have still seen at least nine combimed runs scored. the OVER is 5-0 his last five against teams with a winning record. Note that Arenado has taken Beuhler deep, more than once before has taken Martinez deep, more than once before. Like Buehler, Martinez can also be nasty. However, even though he's also in excellent form, his last three starts have also all produced nine or more runs. That's partly a bullpen issue; Cardinal relievers have only been mediocre. On what should be a good night for hitting, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Playing in their home park means a great deal to both these teams. While the Rockies are a dismal 4-22 on the road, they're a respectable 16-12 here at home. That includes a 10-4 record when playing a home game with a line in the +125 to -125 range. The Rangers, 0-4 when playing a road game with a line in the +125 to -125 range, are 13-13 at home but 9-20 on the road. In addition to the venue advantage, the Rockies have a starter in much better form. Marquez is off b2b gems. Last time out, he allowed only one run on just three hits, through six innings. In his previous start, Marquez tossed seven shutout innings, en route to a 7-1 win. On the other hand, Dunning gave up seven runs in four innings in his last start. He's 0-3 (Texas is 0-5) with a 7.96 ERA (1.917 WHIP) on the road and the Rangers are 1-8 his last nine starts overall. All things considered, the line could easily be much higher. 

I'm playing on Detroit/Milwaukee OVER the total. Boyd allowed four runs in five innings last time out. In his previous start, he allowed five runs in five innings. He's got a 7.31 ERA his last three starts and three of his four road starts, this season, have finished above the total. Boyd won't be happy to see the Brewers. He got absolutely hammered by them last September, en route to a 19-0 loss! Lauer's numbers are good but keep in mind that he's still only thrown 22 innings. He's 15-20 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.47 WHIP for his career. The Detroit bullpen has a combined 6.78 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road. The Brewer bullpen has a 5.33 ERA (1.43 WHIP) at home. The last seven meetings between these teams have all produced double-digits in combined runs. The last nine meetings have all finished with at least seven runs. All things considered, this number is too low. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. After getting blanked yesterday, I fully expect the A's to bounce back with a big day at the plate this afternoon. Facing Quintana for the second time in less than 10 days will help. Not only did the batters just see Quintana, but on the season, he's 0-3 with an ugly 7.95 ERA. Quintana's 5/21 start against the A's, an 8-4 Oakland win, came at home. Now, however, the veteran is on the road. While he's been bad at home, he's been downright dreadful on the road. In fact, in three starts away from home, Quintana has a 12.54 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting .364 in those games. While the A's just saw Quintana, the Angels have yet to see Irvin. Though he hasn't looked as good lately, Irvin's numbers (3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) are still vastly superior to Quintana's numbers. Irvin will get some support here and an Angels team which has managed only five combined runs through the first three games of the series is the perfect opponent for him to get healthy against. Irvin and the A's bounce back.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After getting thumped yesterday, I expect the Twins to bounce back this afternoon. Happ hasn't won for awhile but I like what I saw from him last time out. He kept the ball in the park and he struck out 10 batters, while walking only one. He didn't get the "W" but the Twins did. It should be noted that Happ's home stats are far better than his road stats AND that his daytime numbers are much better than his numbers under the lights. He's got a 7.08 ERA on the road but a 3.86 mark at home. When pitching at night, he's got a 7.32 ERA but in the day, that number falls to 3.74. Of course, yesterday notwithstanding, the Twins have a big edge at the plate. They're better than KC in nearly every offensive category. Expect them to get right back on track. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Texas OVER the total. After getting blanked yesterday, the Rangers will be happy to see struggling Justus Sheffield. Last time out Sheffield walked five batters, while striking out three. Never a good sign. He'd go on to allow five earned runs in five innings. He's got a 6.75 ERA and 1.812 WHIP his his last three starts. All three finished above the total, each producing at least 10 combined runs. What little "success" that Sheffield has enjoyed, has come during the day. In two daytime starts, he's got a 4.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. However, in six starts under the lights, he's got a 5.45 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Like Sheffield, Lyles has been much better in the afternoon. He's got a 4.57 ERA in the day but an awful 6.99 mark (1.66 WHIP) at night. Lyles got rocked (8 runs, 11 hits, 4 innings) here last season, a h2h game against Sheffield. (That one finished with 11 runs.) Lyles doesn't go deep into games, averaging five innings. The Texas bullpen has a 5.76 ERA on the road. Expect a high-scoring affair.

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's got back on track yesterday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Bassitt gets the call and the A's are 3-0 the last three times that he took the mound, 6-1 his last seven starts. Last time out, he held these same Angels to two runs through 7 2/3 innings. He struck out eight, while walking one. Of course, the Angels lienup isn't nearly the same without Trout. Speaking of "not being the same," Ohtani lasted just 4 2/3 innings last time out and his fastball was roughly 5 miles-per-hour slower than normal. While it hasn't been his fault, the Angels are 0-3 the last three times that Ohtani took the mound. Note that his road ERA is much higher than his home ERA and also that he's only averaging five innings per start, on the season. LA reliever have a combined 4.91 ERA on the road. While the Angels eked out a home win against Texas yesterday, they're just 54-79 on the road the past couple of seasons. Off yesterday's win, the A's are 90-53 at home, during the same span. All things considered, I feel that the price could easily be higher. A's win. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) The Giants won big last night but I expect a much better effort from the Diamondbacks this evening. Cueto has better overall numbers than Kelly. However, Kelly has arguably been better of late. Cueto has a poor 5.84 ERA and 1.865 WHIP his past three starts. Kelly is 0-3 his past three starts but actually has a respectable 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in those games. In three home starts this season, he's got a 3.00 ERA, averaging six innings. Last time out, Kelly struck out 12 Dodger hitters without issuing a single walk. He went seven complete innings, the Diamondbacks losing 3-2. Including that result, three of Arizona's last five games have resulted in 1-run losses. That said, while I like the Dbax' chances of winning this one outright, I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After seeing their 9-game winning streak snapped yesterday, many will likely expect the Padres to bounce right back and to start a new winning streak tonight. Its possible; they're certainly capable. I don't see it happening though. The Brewers have climbed back above the .500 mark and are just two games back of the division lead. They're suddenly surging and bring a lot of momentum into tonight's game. Musgrove has thrown a no-hitter and is having a great season. However, Burnes has arguably been even better. Musgrove has a 2.65 ERA and 0.863 WHIP. Burnes has a 1.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. They've both averaged 5.7 innings per start but Burnes has the much better K/W ratio. Musgrove was strong against Milwaukee on 4/19. However, Burnes was even better against SD the very next day. I'm backing Burnes and the Brewers. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. I'm backing the veteran in Saturday's all-southpaw affair, at Dunedin. Ray squares off against rookie McClanahan. Through four starts, McClanahan has a 4.67 ERA, averaging less than five innings per start. Last time out, he went 5 1/3 innings, his longest start ever. However, in the process, he gave up two home runs and four runs overall. At 3.79, Ray's ERA is nearly a full run lower. He also averages just shy of innings per start, as opposed to less than five. Ray's throwing harder than he has in recent seasons and he's cut down on last season's walk totals. He's got an impressive 42 K's against just two walks, over his past five starts. While Ray also allowed four earned runs last time out, he'd allowed three or less in each of his previous six starts. I say Ray "bounces back" and leads the Jays to an important win. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. This is a very fair price on the Cards. Keep in mind that while the Pirates are 52-85 against divisional opponents in recent seasons, the Cards are 78-53. While the Cards are middle of the pack so far this season, in terms of runs scored per game, the Pirates are dead last. Brubaker has been solid but a closer look reveals that he's allowed at least one home run in each of his past four starts. On the other hand, Gant hasn't been taken deep in any of his past four starts. In fact, he's only allowed one HR in his past nine starts. Though he's given up a few too many baserunners, he's got a 1.85 ERA on the season and a sparkling 1.26 mark his past three. The Cards won 7-3 when these same two starters opposed each other on 4/30. They should finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds rallied to win 7-6 at Coors yesterday and I expect them to bring the momentum home with them. Gray has a superb 1.59 ERA in two home starts. The Reds won those games by scores of 3-2 and 1-0. Last time here, Gray allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings, striking out eight. On the other hand, Webb is 0-3 with a terrible 7.58 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four road starts. Last time away from SF, he allowed six runs in 3 2/3 innings. The Reds are averaging more runs per game than any team in baseball. Look for them to draw first blood in this series, improving to 34-24 their last 58, as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Royals won yesterday. (They're now 13-30 their last 43 in the month of May.) With today's starter in much better current form than his opponent, I fully expect the ChiSox to respond this afternoon. Cease has a sparkling 1.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. The Sox won those games by a combined score of 29-3! The scores were 11-0, 9-0 and 9-3. Cease should get solid run support again here. Singer has an ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.818 WHIP his last three. The Royals lost those games by a combined score of 22-12, Singer averaging less than four innings. Over those three starts, Singer had 8 K's vs. 7 walks. Over Cease's last three starts, he had 27 K's against five walks. Not only do the Sox have an edge on the mound but they also have a big edge at the plate; they average more runs per game than any team in the AL. Chicago wins. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Toronto OVER the total. Yesterday, the wind was blowing out in the afternoon but shifted direction prior to the game. It ended up knocking down at least one ball that would have otherwise been a home run. Early signs suggest far more favorable conditions for this evening's game, the wind projected to keep blowing out to right through the game, the weather staying nice and warm. Advantage hitters. Kay gets the call for the Jays and he's got an ugly 9.82 ERA through two starts. Nola, meanwhile, gave up two home runs in four innings, in his last start. He's got an ERA above five over his past four starts, three of which finished over the total. Expect another high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins cost me yesterday but that won't prevent me from coming back with them this afternoon. While Irvin and Berrios have similar numbers this season, Berrios has the stronger career stats and I still consider him to be the superior pitcher. Knowing his team absolutely needs him, I expect Berrios to come through with a big effort this afternoon. He was on the wrong side of a 1-0 loss in this season's earlier start against the A's but still pitched well. He'll get more run support this time; Irvin gave up two home runs (4 runs overall) his last time out. Enough's enough. Expect the "desperate" Twins to stop the bleeding this afternoon. 

I'm playing on NY. This line could easily be higher. Kluber may have started slowly but he's been outstanding of late. In fact, he's 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA his last three starts. The Yankees were 3-0 in those games, one of them a 5-1 win over the O's. Kremer has been the opposite. The O's have already lost his two starts against NY by scores of 7-0 and 7-2. While Kluber hasn't given up a home run in any of his last four starts, Kremer has allowed four in his last three games. He's got an ugly 9.49 ERA and 1.703 WHIP at home. Even off yesterday's loss, the Yankees are still 28-10 in May the past couple of seasons while the O's are 12-26. Better bullpen and better hitting. It all adds up to a big NY win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I like that the Reds played and won an early game yesterday. The Rockies had to play two games, salvaging the split with the Padres. That'll take a toll on them today, particularly with starter not likely to be around too long. Gonzalez has a 6.08 ERA on the season but a 9.22 ERA his past three. While Castillo's recent numbers (6.91 ERA past three) are also bad, they're not quite as bad as Gonzalez. Importantly, note that Castillo has kept the ball in the park each of his past two starts while Gonzalez has been taken deep in three straight. Remember, Castillo still has a 3.79 career ERA while Gonzalez has a 5.25 career mark. While the Rockies know that they have no hope in the competitive NL West, the Reds have climbed back to .500 and are right in the thick of things in the Central. They're a game ahead of the Cubs, two back of the Brewers and 3.5 games back of the division leading Cardinals. If they plan to keep competing, they need Castillo to get going and these are the games they need to win. Expect the Reds to build some momentum from yesterday's win and for them to draw first blood in this series. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While the Cards took yesterday's game, I expect the Brewers to have a significant edge this evening. Woodruff dominated the Cards the last time that he saw them (Sept 2020) and he's been outstanding so far this season. The Brewers are 5-2 when he's taken the mound and he's got a 1.73 ERA in those games. Gant also has an excellent ERA, as he's got a 2.15 ERA through six starts. While its an important stat, ERA doesn't come close to telling the whole story. In this case, not only is Woodruff going much deeper into games, he's also allowing less than half as many baserunners. While Woodruff has a dominant 0.768 WHIP, Gant has an ugly 1.705 WHIP. Gant also averages only 4.8 innings compared to Woodruff's six. Last time out, Gant walked six batters in 4 1/3 innings. In his previous start, he walked five batters in five innings. That's as many free passes (11 in two games) as Woodruff has given all season. The Brewers are 3-1 in Woodruff's four starts against the Cards, most recently a 3-0 win where Woodruff tossed eight shutout innings. The Brewers are also 3-0 when Gant has been on the mound against them; he walked eight in 13 2/3 combined innings. Milwaukee bounces back. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Alzolay has looked great at times. However, he averages less than six innings per outing and he's got a 4.50 ERA on the season. Those numbers will beat some but today, he's up against one of the best in the game. Bieber is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA. Cleveland has won five of his seven starts. At home, his ERA dips to 2.70. Bieber gets it done nearly every time out. He's struck out at least eight in 19 straight outings. He's gone six or more innings in every start this season, too. All seven starts were of the "quality" variety. Cleveland is healthier and at home and has been better against right-handed pitching. Bieber gets it done, again. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Phillies jumped all over the Braves right out of the gate yesterday, en route to a 12-2 blowout win. I fully expect the Braves to respond today. Anderson has a stellar 2.04 ERA his past three starts. Velasquez checks in off a quality start. However, keep in mind that was just the second time since 2019 that he's pitched six or more innings. He still allowed a home run, his fifth allowed in the past three games, a span of only 14 1/3 innings. Anderson, on the other hand, hasn't served up a long ball in any of his past four starts, a span of 22 2/3 innings. Look for the Braves to bounce back, moving to 48-24 their past 72, when listed as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Marlins are rolling of late and they won again yesterday. They won't have the advantage on the mound any more though and that hurts, as they're not really a big hitting lineup either. Houser has quietly been very solid for the Brewers. In three road starts, he's got a 2.30 ERA. The Brewers won two of those. Dating back to last season, Houser has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine straight starts. Houser hit a HR when he faced the Marlins earlier, while also getting down a sac. bunt which ultimately led to a run. His team desperate for a win, look for Houser to pitch effectively once again, the Brewers bouncing back with a badly needed victory. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I expect the Astros to have the edge in this evening series opener againt the Jays. Urquidy is off b2b gems. Two starts ago, he allowed just two runs through six complete innings. Last time out, he was even better, as he tossed seven shutout innings against Tampa. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his past four. He allowed four in the other but that came at Coors Field. He hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in years. Literally. Stripling has gotten in a few starts but he's unlikely to remain a regular part of the Jays starting rotation. In those three starts, he's got an ugly 6.40 ERA and 1.738 WHIP. His lone road start saw him allow three runs in 3 1/3 innings. The Astros got back some momentum, while also climbing back above 500, by closing out their series at NY with a win. They're a dominant 93-42 at home the past few years. Expect them to build off yesterday with another victory today. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. A date with the Detroit Tigers should be exactly what Shoemaker and the Twins need. While the Twins still have hope to turn things around, the Tigers already know that its going to be a long season. Minnesota knows that it needs to take advantage of these games. Shoemaker tossed a gem here to begin the season. He allowed just three hits and only one earned run, through six complete innings. He struck out five and didn't walk a batter. The Twins won 15-6. Shoemaker should get solid run support once again as Skubal is really struggling this season. I successfully played on the Yankees (-1.5 runs) the last time that Skubal was on the mound. Here's an excerpt from that game: "... Skubal, on the other hand, has already walked 12 batters in 19 innings. He's 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. For his career, he's 1-7 with a 5.47 ERA. More? Skubal has the support of a Detroil bullpen which has a horrible 7.72 ERA and 1.930 WHIP on the road ... The Tigers have lost Skubal's three 2021 starts by scores of 8-4, 11-3 and 9-3. Expect another blowout ... " Sure enough, Skubal got rocked (3 HRs in 3 innings!) and the Tigers lost 10-0. The Tigers gave up 12 runs yesterday, allowing "double-digits" for the second time in the 3-game series against Boston. They're an ugly 9-27 their last 36, after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. Shoemaker's teams are 6-1 over his career against the Tigers, including 3-0 the last three. His teams won those games by a combined score of 28-6, Shoemaker allowed just a single run in the 19 combined innings. Twins bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA. Its a long season and even really good teams like the Dodgers go through tough stretches. However, they also tend to "snap out of it," a lot faster than average teams. Off dropping both games in yesterday's double-header, I expect the Dodgers to snap out of their funk today. Buehler gets the call and he's got a 3.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the season. Four of his five starts have been quality and the only one that wasn't saw him still record 10 K's and go more than six innings. He's had 19 K's against just one walk, his last two starts. On the other hand, Alzolay comes off the first quality start of his career. (That came in his 10th career start, 14th appearance.) He's got a poor 5.58 ERA in two home starts, both of them Chicago losses. The Dodgers are 12-3 the last 15 times that Buehler was on the mound. Enough's enough, they'll stop the bleeding here. 

I'm playing on NY. The Yankees found their groove against the Tigers. They won the three games by a combined score of 18-4. Back to .500, healthier than they've been and rested from an off-day, I expect them to draw first blood in the series against Houston. Greinke, naturally, has the bigger "name" in this matchup than German. Greinke also has slightly better overall numbers this season. That said, German enters in much better current form. Last time out, he put it all together, tossing seven shutout innings and allowing just three hits. He got the "W" and Yankees won 7-0; the type of effort that he can build confidence and positive momentum from. Greinke, on the other hand, gave up four runs in four innings, in his last start. In his previous start, he escaped much damage (2 runs) but did give up 10 hits. He won't be happy to see NY, as Greinke has an ERA of 5.05 in 15 games (12 starts) against the Yankees. I say the Yankees keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Milwaukee OVER the total. The last four meetings between these teams all produced a minimum of nine runs, three of them reaching double-digits. Assuming they can get the game in - there are storms in the area - I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. Velasquez goes for the Phillies and he's been inconsistent for years. He's got a 6.57 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in five appearances (2 starts) this season. In his two starts, he's given up four home runs, two in each game, despite pitching a total of just 8 1/3 combined innings. Houser has been better than Velasquez but he's far from unhittable. He's go a 1.419 WHIP and he only goes five innings per start. Velasquez has made two career starts vs. Milwaukee. Both finished above the total, the games averaging 12.5 combined runs. While a rain delay is possible, if the game does finish, look for it to also reach double-digits.

I'm playing on NY/Philadelphia OVER the total. After a low-scoring opener, yesterday's game made its way over the number. I expect this evening's game to do the same. Peterson gets the call for the Mets and he's got a poor 5.59 ERA through four starts. Unfortunately for him, though this is only his fifth start overall, it will already be the third time that he's gone up against the Phillies. That familiarity figures to favor the hitters. Eflin has been mostly solid. However, he gave up nine hits last time out, which is a lot - his most since 2019. He's also got a poor 5.21 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Mets. (The OVER is 3-1 his last four vs. NY and 5-2 his last seven.) With the Phillies having finished on the wrong side of yesterday's 5-4 score, note that the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that Eflin took the mound, when the Phillies were off a loss. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Royals jumped all over them on Saturday but I fully expect the Twins to respond on Sunday. Berrios has a 3.04 ERA to go along with a stingy 0.98 WHIP. He's recorded 33K's in 26 2/3 innings. Berrios hasn't gotten much run support recently; the Twins have scored just four runs in his past three starts combined. He should be able to expect considerably more here though, as Keller has really struggled so far this season. Though he was better against the lowly Tigers last time out, Keller still has an ugly 9.00 ERA and a terrible 2.278 WHIP on the season. These starters opposed each other once previously. Berrios outpitched and outlasted Keller in the April 2019 game, the Twins finishing on top. I expect history to repeat itself here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Royals are a surprising 15-8 while the Twins are a disappointing 8-15. Its a long season though and things will start to "correct themselves" right here. Pineda wasn't his best last time out. However, he's been so consistent that one sub-par game isn't enough to slow him down. He's still got a stellar 2.42 ERA and 0.896 WHIP on the season. Singer has also pitched well, as he's got a 2.95 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. His last start against the Twins didn't go too well though. He was taken deep twice in four innings, en route to a 7-2 loss. The Royals are still an ugly 11-26 their last 37, as road underdogs in the 125 to 175 range. The Twins got back on track with a win Wednesday before yesterday's off day. I say Pineda bounces back and they make it two in a row.

I'm playing on NY. Stroman has had the Phillies' number so far. In two starts against them, he's allowed just a single run, through 12 complete innings. One of those came against Anderson. The Mets won 8-4. (The other was against Nola and the Mets won 4-0.) In two road starts, Stroman has a sparkling 1.29 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. On the other hand, Anderson has a 6.48 ERA through four starts; the Phillies lost all four of them. In addition to the expected pitching advantage, the schedule works in New York's favor. While the Mets had yesterday off, the Phillies are off a tough extra inning loss. I say Stroman gets it done, one more time, the Mets benefitting from the off-day, earning an important win and moving back to .500. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. If the Nationals couldn't win with Scherzer on the mound yesterday, they're going to have real trouble today. The Jays currently have one of the hottest hitters on the planet energizing their lineup at the moment. Guerrero Jr. comes off a 3-HR (7 RBI) performance. Today, they should also have a significant edge on the mound. The Nats have really struggled against southpaws thus far and Matz has been outstanding. This season's first pitcher to reach four victories, he's 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He strikes out more than a batter per inning and gives the Jays six innings nearly every time out. Fedde, on the other hand, has a 5.51 ERA. That's right around his career (5.13) mark. The Jays got back to .500 yesterday and know they need to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Expect them to do exactly that. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers got hammered in yesterday's game but I fully expect them to bounce back today. Houser has quietly been solid. He's got a 3.32 ERA through four starts. While he hasn't gone deep, he also only allowed 2, 2, 3 and 0 runs in those four games. Castana, a rookie, is making just his second road start. Through two starts, he's walked more than he's struck out. He'll be facing an angry Milwaukee team, determined to respond after getting blanked. That's something (responding to losses) that they've done very well. Since dropping a few in a row early on, the Brewers have gone a perfect 6-0 the past six times that they were off a loss. They won those six games by a combined score of 35-10. Expect them to make it seven wins in a row, when off a loss, this evening. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves could badly use a win and this should be an excellent spot for them to get one. Morton has been solid thus far and he limited the Yankees to a single run, on just three hits, through six innings, in his last start. He's gone six complete in each of his last three starts and allowed just one run in two of those. Over the three game stretch, he's recorded 22K's in 18 innings. Davies was absolutely brutal in his lone road start and he's got an ugly 12.10 and 2.585 WHIP his last three starts overall. While the Cubs haven't faced Morton for several years, the Braves have already knocked around Davies less than two weeks ago. I say they do so again. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins badly need a victory and this is an ideal matchup for them to get one. While he may have taken a tough (1-0) loss, Berrios allowed just one run last time out. He's got 30K's through 21 innings and a WHIP (0.95) of less than one. In two road starts, he's got a 0.82 ERA and a 0.455 WHIP. Berrios figures to get more support this time. Plesac has given up six runs in b2b starts, a total of 12 in just 5 2/3 innings. Berrios hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last 15 starts, since last August. He allowed one earned run or less in nearly half (7) of those starts. The Twins are still 61-41 their last 100+ when coming off a loss. Expect them to improve on those stats today. 

I'm playing on LA/SD UNDER the total. Yesterday's game saw nine runs scored, a 5-4 win for the Dodgers. Tonight, I'm expecting a "pitcher's duel." While May and Musgrove might not have big names like Kershaw, Bauer, Snell, Darvish or Buehler, they've quietly been outstanding. Musgrove got some attention because of his no-hitter, but he's also got a 1.04 ERA and 0.538 WHIP overall. In two road starts, he's got a remarkable 0.69 ERA and 0.462 WHIP. Not surprisingly, all four of his starts have fallen below the total. As for May, he's got a 2.94 ERA and 1.109 WHIP through three starts. Not as dominat as Musgrove but stingy, all the same. Two of his three starts have fallen below the number. May has made four "regular season" starts against the Padres and all four fell below the total, each finishing with seven or fewer combined runs. (May also served as an opener in Game 3 of the NLCS last year, pitching a scoreless inning.) Though May hasn't been going as deep into games as Musgrove, he's got the support of an LA bullpen which has a combined 2.42 ERA at home. Look for a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on the NY METS. The Nationals took yesterday's game, dropping the Mets to .500 on the season. This afternoon, Walker on the mound, the Mets bounce back. Walker may not personally have any wins for them yet but he was an excellent pickup and has been pitching well. He's got a 3.21 ERA through three starts, striking out 19 in 14 innings. In two home starts, he's got a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The Mets won both games. While he did bounce back with a much better effort last time out, Corbin still has a terrible 10.95 ERA on the season. He got rocked in his lone road start and has a 12.47 ERA and 2.079 WHIP to show for it. His teams are 1-10 the last 11 times that the was on the mound. Walker's teams, on the other hand, are 8-2 the last 10 times that he took the mound. Nats 2-6 off a win. Mets 5-2 off a loss. Mets roll.

I'm playing on LA. The Padres have shown that they're not punching bags and that they're potentially ready to challenge the Dodgers this season. Expect Bauer and the Dodgers to bounce back this evening though. The Padres won with Snell on the mound against Bauer, at San Diego, last week. However, Bauer actually outpitched Snell in that game and he's been far better on the season overall. Through four starts, Snell has a 4.11 ERA and 1.369 WHIP. He was absolutely terrible in his lone road start, as he couldn't make it out of the first inning, at Pittsburgh. Bauer, on the other hand, is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.615 WHIP. In his lone home start, he's got a 0.00 ERA and a microscopic 0.415 WHIP. He allowed one hit, through seven shutout innings, LA winning 7-0. Note that Bauer is only the third Dodger pitcher since 1901 to record seven or more K's in each of his first four starts. The Dodgers have won his last two home starts by a combined score of 13-1. Even off yesterday's loss, their second straight, the Dodgers are still 59-27 their last 86 off a loss. With all due respect to Snell and the Padres, this line could easily be higher. Dodgers win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins are too good to keep on losiing. A visit from the Pirates figures to be just what the doctor ordered for them to get back on track. Even with yesterday's win at Detroit, the Pirates are still 46-77 on the road the past few seasons. During that span, the Twins are 71-50 at home. Happ gets the call and the veteran knows the importance of this game to his team. He'll face a Pirate team which is an ugly 19-40 its past 59 against southpaw starters. Happ last saw the Pirates in 2017 and he beat them 7-1. The Twins are 60-40 their last 100 off a loss and 11-7 their last 18 after giving up double-digits. Look for yesterday's "off day" to have come at the right time, as the Twins bounce back and move to 22-12 their last 34, when playing with a day off. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros could really use a victory and this should be an excellent spot to get one Javier has an excellent 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP through his first two starts. In his lone home start, he tossed five shutout innings, striking out seven while allowing just three hits. The Astros won 6-2. Javier held the Angels to three runs in a 6-3 Houston win last August. Cobb has a 4.63 ERA through his first two starts. The last time that Cobb visited here (2017) he'd been throwing the ball well, having gone 3-0 with only five runs allowed in his previous four starts. However, he was rocked for nine hits and eight runs in a season-low three innings. The Astros won that game 14-7. At the time, Cobb's manager (Kevin Cash) commented: "Alex just didn't have it. He couldn't quite command the baseball, missing over the plate too much. They came out, and they didn't miss anything either." I say the Astros bounce back. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Boston OVER the total. Today's two starters, Pivetta (11) and Dunn (10) already have 21 combined walks to start the season. In the American League, only Tarik Skubal, who has 12, has walked more than Pivetta. Also, consider that Pivetta has made three appearances and that Dunn has made only two. Skubal has already made four appearances and has thrown more innings. In terms of walks per innings pitched, its tough to beat Dunn. He's thrown 9 2/3 innings and he's walked 10 batters. So, we're likely to see from free passes for Thursday's game at Fenway. Pivetta's been fortunate to keep his ERA respectable but his WHIP (1.636) gives a more clear picture. All three of his starts have produced double-digits, with combined scores of 13, 23 and 11. Seven straight meetings between these teams have also hit double-digits. Those games had combined scores of 13, 14, 15, 18, 11, 13 and 16. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds weren't happy with how yesterday's suspended game was handled. The weather looks more promising today (a few scattered showers but nothing that should cause a ppd) and the game doesn't figure to be nearly so close. Mahle has been excellent, he's got 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Kelly can't say the same thing;he's got an ugly 8.44 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. While part of that has been due to the venues he's pitched in, he's still not in good form. The Reds are 5-1 the past six times that Mahle started, 7-2 his past nine starts. Look for them to improve to 32-20 their past 52, as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on Miami/Baltimore UNDER the total. Yesterday's game was high-scoring but we should see a lower-scoring affair this afternoon. Rogers has been excellent for Miami. He's given up two earned runs or less in every start, good for a 2.40 ERA. He's striking out an impressive 13.8 batters per nine innings, too. Zimmerman has been fairly solid. He's allowed three earned runs or less each start. He went six innings in two of those and five in the other. He'll be happy to pitch in an NL park against the Marlins and he's got the support of a Baltimore bullpen which has pitched well on the road. Zimmerman's last start finished with a 2-1 final and Rogers' lone home start had a 4-1 final. More of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Giants are off to a strong start and they blanked the Phillies in yesterday's game. I expect Philadelphia to bounce right back today. Note that the Phillies are a profitable 37-16 the past few seasons, as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Wheeler, who had a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts last season, gets the call. He's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA at home so far this season. In seven shutout innings here, he held the Braves to a single hit. He struck out 10 without walking a single batter. Dominant. A closer look at the 2020 numbers shows that he was 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA at home, as compared to 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA on the road. Webb has a 5.30 ERA for his career and he had a 5.47 ERA last season. He last pitched out of the bullpen and is only back in the rotation due to Cueto's injury. Expect Wheeler to get the better of Webb and the Phillies to get the better of the Giants. 

I'm playing SD/Milwaukee OVER the total. With Musgrove having thrown a no-hitter and both pitchers in excellent early form, we're working with a very low O/U number. Its the lowest on the Monday board. With all due respect to Musgrove and Woodruff, I believe it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that Musgrove followed-up his no-hitter by going four innings in his next start. History suggests that he won't be going the distance here. Ditto for Woodruff; he's averaging less than six innings. While the SD bullpen has been solid thus far, the Brewer bullpen has been quite hittable and has already blown a few saves. The Brewers know Musgrove pretty well from his time in Pittsburgh. Four of his five starts against them have produced double-digits in runs, the OVER going 4-1. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Houston/Seattle OVER the total. Yesterday's game was 1-0 pitcher's duel. I'm expecting the opposite type of game this afternoon though. The Paciifc Northwest is getting an early taste of summer right now. Yesterday's game was a night game. While still a nice evening, the hitters didn't benefit from the warmer temperatures they'll see here. Indeed, it should be a good afternoon for hitting. Of course, roof open or closed, good or bad weather, it comes down to the pitchers. In this case, both starters have a WHIP above two, thus far. That's ugly. Margevicius has a 6.00 ERA and a 2.333 WHIP. Odorizzi, meanwhile, has an obscene 13.51 ERA to go along with a 2.102 WHIP. Yes, those numbers are from a very small sample size; neither pitcher is that bad. That said, neither are in good form, either. Margevicius pitches in 4-days rest instead of five and Odorizzi just served up three home runs in 3 1/3 innings. Expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The O's took yesterday's game but with Dunning on the mound, I fully expect the Rangers to bounce back. I won with the 'under' in Dunning's last start, stating the following:"...I was really impressed with Dunning's first start. He allowed a single run through five innings. He struck out six without walking a batter, giving up just three hits in total. Unfortunately for Dunning, he isn't likely to get much run support here ..." That game would finish with a 1-0 final. For his part, Dunning allowed just two hits through four shutout innings, striking out five. He's now got a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP. While I stated that I didn't expect Dunning to receive much support (he got none) last time out, the opposite should be true today. Kremer will be pitching on three day's rest and he's got a 10.50 ERA and 2.33 WHIP, thus far. In six career starts, his ERA is above six. Despite going just three innings in each start this season, he still allowed a home run in each of them. He struggled in the spring, (6.32 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) too. Dunning, on the other hand, had a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in the spring. Even off yesterday's win, the O's are still 56-100 against right-handers, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 0-4 in Kremer's last four starts as an underdog. Prior to scoring just two yesterday, the Rangers had scored six, five and eight runs in their previous three games. Pitching matchup and venue in their favor, I say the Rangers bounce right back. 

I'm playing on NY/Toronto OVER the total. Yesterday's game was low-scoring but I expect the bats to come to life in this one. Both these lineups are capable of breaking out, at any time. The Yankees are getting a second look at Ryu in less than a 2-week span. That first meeting was an April 1 game at NY and Ryu was up against Cole. Now, however, its a mid-April game in much warmer Dunedin. Also, importantly, Ryu's opponent is now Taillon, as opposed to Cole. While Taillon did pitch well in his first start, he did serve up a pair of HR's. That was also Taillon's first start in nearly two years. So, while he's likely to give up more runs than he did in the first meeting, Ryu is also likely to receive considerably more run support. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER moving to 5-0 the past five times that Toronto scored two or fewer runs in its previous game. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Indians come in on a roll but I expect the ChiSox to slow them down this evening. Rodon was excellent in earning his first win since 2019. All he did was record nine K's through five shutout innings. He gave up just two hits and was fooling hitters the entire way. That came on the heels of a spring where he recorded an outstanding 1.32 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. So, he's clearly in good form. On the other hand, McKenzie will be making his first start (did pitch in relief) after posting an ugly 6.98 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in the spring. Rodon's last "home" start against the Indians resulted in a 1-0 win, back in 2018, Rodon tossing eight shutout innings. Look for him to get the better of McKenzie here, the Sox improving to 23-10 their last 33, when listed as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on Texas/Tampa UNDER the total. I'm expecting a well-pitched affair in Tampa this evening. I was really impressed with Dunning's first start. He allowed a single run through five innings. He struck out six without walking a batter, giving up just three hits in total. Unfortunately for Dunning, he isn't likely to get much run support here. Indeed, the Rangers are having real trouble scoring runs. They were shutout yesterday (2-0) loss and have managed a mere six runs in their last four games combined, four of those coming in one game. Twice, in their last three, they've failed to score a single run. Things don't get any easier this evening.Glasnow has a 0.75 ERA and 0.583 WHIP through his first two starts. He's given up only five hits (0 HRs) through 12 innings, striking out 15 while walking two. Expect runs to be hard to come by once again, the final combined score staying below the number. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. After a shaky start, the Braves have caught fire. The opposite has been true for the Phillies. Momentum on their side, I expect the Braves to have the edge once again this evening. Smyly was quietly really good in his first start. He went six complete innings and struck out eight, walking just one. Keep in mind that Smyly, who had a solid 3.42 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2020, had 16 K's against just two walks in the spring, too. So, the same 8:1 K:W ratio. Moore, on the other hand, has a 1:1 ratio, as he has walked as many (4) as he struck out, thus far. In addition to the four walks, Moore also gave up four hits, in a span of just 3 1/3 innings. That translates to an ugly 2.40 WHIP. The Phillies are just 9-24 their last 33 as road underdogs in the 125 to 175 range. During the same span, the Braves are 43-18 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Philadelphia relievers have a 6.75 ERA on the road, while Atlanta relievers have a 0.00 ERA at home and 1.71 mark overall. Atlanta keeps on rolling. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays have stumbled lately but this should be an excellent spot for them to get back on track. Matz was sharp in the spring and outstanding in his regular season debut for the Jays. Through 6 1/3 innings, he allowed a single run, while striking out nine. He allowed a mere two hits with just one walk. That's good for a 0.474 WHIP! While I won with the Angels in Quintana's last start, it wasn't thanks to him. Indeed, the veteran was roughed up and has a 10.80 ERA and 2.40 WHIP to show for his efforts. The Jays need this one badly and with all their injuries, they need Matz to give them another big game. We didn't see it yesterday but they've got an explosive lineup. I say they bounce back. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Minnesota UNDER the total. I remember sitting in the stands at Safeco, amost exactly a decade ago, watching Pineda pitch against the Twins. A young Pineda pitched well for the Mariners, on that spring night in 2011. Seattle would win 5-2. At the time, the 22-year old Pineda had been the AL Rookie of the Month in April.He ended up striking out seven, without walking any, while lowering his ERA to 2.45. Now, a decade later, Pineda is still getting it done. He had a 3.38 ERA in 2020 and he tossed five shutout innings in this season's first start. In parts of three seasons with the Twins, he's got a solid 3.80 ERA. Facing the team he started with is always special and I expect the veteran Pineda to pitch well again. Pineda may not get much run support though as Kikuchi was dominant in this season's first start. In fact, he recorded 10 K's (a career high) through six innings. He threw more first pitch strikes than he ever had in 42 previous big league outings, too. That came on the heels of a spring where he held opposing hitters to a .179 batting average, striking out nine in 8 1/3 innings. With both starters coming in confident and already in excellent form, I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on NY/TB OVER the total. We're getting a fairly low O/U line in part to the recognizable names on the mound. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Hill is now 41 and in his 17th season. While its only one start, he's got a 9.00 ERA And a 1.75 WHIP so far this season. Facing the Marlins, he lasted only four innings. Now, he'll take on a far more formidable Yankee lineup. (*Judge remains questionable and his status won't be known until closer to the gametime. The lineup is obviously scarier with him in it. However, its loaded even without him.) Note that Hill is supported by a TB bullpen which has a combined 8.18 ERA And 2.00 WHIP thus far. I won with the Yankees in Kluber's first start; to his credit, Kluber battled and the Yankees ultimately got the win. Still, behind Kluber's tidy 2.25 ERA lies an ugly 2.00 WHIP. He was fortunate to escape more damage as he gave up five hits, while walking three, in just four innings. While he's not as "ancient" as Hill, Kluber is also getting a little long in the tooth. He may well have a few years left but he's not going to win any more Cy Young awards. Five straight Tampa games have reached "double-digits." Don't be surprised when this one does, too. 

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I won with the Cubs when these same two starters opposed each other on 4/3. That was at Wrigley though, where I mentioned that Arrieta had a career 2.29 ERA. I felt that he'd be fired up for his first game back. This afternoon, it'll be the Pirates who are happy to "return home," as this will be their home opener. In what is likely going to be a long season, this is one game they can get fired up for. The Pirates have beaten the Cubs three straight times here and they're 7-3 the last 10 as a host. One of those Chicago victories came by just a run. In other words, the Pirates would be 8-2 the last 10 meetings here, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each. As for Arrieta ...  the last four times that Arrieta pitched here at Pittsburgh, while wearing a Cubs' uniform, Pittsburgh was a perfect 4-0. The Pirates won by scores of 12-0, 4-3, 8-4 and 8-4. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a "run-line cover" in this one. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Admittedly, Marquez struggled with his command in his first start. Still, he was up against the Dodgers and he limited them to one run. I like the fact that he's at least got a start under his belt. He's only 26 and has a 42-30 career record with a respectable (Remember, he pitches at Coors) 4.23 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. For this entire career, he's got more stirkeouts than inninngs pitched, giving an idea of the type of stuff he brings to the table. Weaver was 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA in 2020. This will be his first start this season and he was 1-2 with an ugly 8.59 ERA during the spring. In 14 2/3 spring innings, he served up eight home runs. Weaver and Marquez have previously gone h2h twice. The Rockies won by scores of 10-3 (at Arizona) and 11-1, here at Colorado. Expect more of the same here. 

I'm playing on LA. Both these teams have gotten off to strong starts. The Angels are 3-1 while the Astros are 4-0. Tonight, I expect LA to hand Houston its first loss. At 32, Quintana is obviously the more experienced pitcher. Indeed, Garcia has made only one big league start (5 appearances) and he'd never pitched above Class-A ball before last year. Perhaps more importantly, however, is the fact that Quintana was able to get considerably more work accomplished in the spring. The veteran southpaw recorded a solid 3.32 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in six spring starts, opposing hitters batting .200. Garcia, on the other hand, only got 5 2/3 innings of work in the spring and he had an ugly 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP to show for it, opposing hitters batting .333. The Angels had their way with the Astros last September. Given the extra spring innings that Quintana got, I feel that they could easily be a bigger favorite here. LA wins.

I'm playing on Baltimore/Boston OVER the total. The first two games of this series have been relatively low-scoring but the bats should come to life this afternoon. Richards does have good stuff. However, he had a poor 5.93 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this spring and he's also is 0-4 with a 5.46 ERA for his career against Baltimore. Zimmerman only has two big league appearances (1 start) and he's got an ugly 7.71 ERA to show for it. He gave up two HR's iin three innings in his lone start last season, that game producing 16 runs. He'll face a Boston lineup determined to break out. Expect this one to reach "double-digits."

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Astros have taken the first two games of this series but I like the A's chances of bouncing back this afternoon. Irvin gets the start thanks to a superb spring. In five outings (three starts) he recorded a dominant 1.00 ERA. Through those 18 innings, he recorded 18 K's, while walking only three. While I do expect the A's to bounce back and score the moneyline upset, out of respect for McCullers, I'm happy to lay the reasonable price to get an extra +1.5 runs with the highly motivated home team. Expect Irvin to carry his positive momentum into the season, the A's bouncing back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is excellent value on the Reds, with Castillo on the mound. Here's what manager David Bell said of his Opening Day starter: "I think it’s pretty obvious what Luis has done as a pitcher. I can speak firsthand to what he's done over the last two years, and really he’s in a great spot this year. I'd say he’s as ready as I've ever seen him. Guys take different approaches to coming into spring training. He came into spring training this year very ready to go, very focused, in great shape ... " Note that Castillo had a 1.93 ERA in the the spring. Bell went on to say: "He's just a young pitcher who continues to get better and better and in so many ways, he's just the full package. He’s a great teammate, a great person, very humble but also confident. He’s got an easy way about him, but he competes as well as any pitcher I’ve been around.” You may recall that Castillo was 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his final five starts last season. St. Louis fans remember, as one of those wins came against the Cards on Sept. 11, at Busch Stadium. All Castillo did was throw a two-hit complete game en route to a 3-1 victory. Flaherty was 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in the spring. On a chilly afternoon, he's not going to get much run support in this one. Reds draw first blood. 

I'm playing on LA. I know it makes for a better story for Tampa to win this game. That would set up an epic Game 7 showdown between Buehler and Morton. Its not happening though. Not in my opinion. Yes, I did successfully back the Rays in the previous Snell/Gonsolin matchup. Yes, Snell outpitched and outlasted Gonsolin in that one. The second part of that sentence, the 'outlasted' part, actually works against Snell here though. The Dodger hitters, who are better than the Tampa hitters to begin with, got a longer look at Snell than the Tampa hitters got at Gonsolin. Eventually, they started to really like what they saw, too. Snell cruised through the first 4 2/3 innings. However, these LA hitters are really good and once they started becoming familiar with him, they started hitting him. Snell would allow four straight batters to reach base before getting the hook. Now, seeing him for the second time in less than a week, the Dodgers figure to be more 'dialed in' right from the first time through the lineup. Remember, Gonsolin actually had better numbers than Snell, during the reg. season. The Dodgers have faith him in for a reason. Sure, its a nice luxury to know you've got Buehler ready to go for Game 7. The Dodgers don't want to go there though. They want to end this right here, right now. They're 41-19 their last 60, when playing with a day off in between games. The drought is over, Dodger fans. LA wins. 

I'm playing on the Rays/Dodgers UNDER the total. While I won with the Dodgers, the total was tough to take. The game was still below the number with two outs and two strikes - and nobody on base - in the bottom of the 9th. Its a new game though and each game needs to be looked at with unbiased eyes. In this case, I believe the O/U line, higher than it was yesterday, is generously high. Urias has been a beast, no matter what role he's asked to perform. He's 4-0 with a dominant 0.56 ERA in the playoffs, thus far, striking out 16 in 16 innings. Yarbrough has been respectable, in his own right. In six career postseason appearances, he now has a 2.63 ERA. Last night's late home run notwithstanding, both bullpens remain highly capable. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on LA/TB UNDER the total. The first two games featured a Cy Young award winner for one team against a less experienced starter for the other. Game 3, however, is different. We've got two legit starters, both capable of rising to the occasion with a dominant effort. Buehler has a 1.89 ERA through four playoff starts, striking out 29 in 19 innings. He's pitched in the WS before (Game 3 against Boston) and tossed seven shutout innings. Not to be outdone, Morton is now 5-0 with a masterful 0.70 ERA in five playoff starts for Tampa. That includes a 0.57 mark in three starts so far these playoffs. Like Buehler, he's been here before. In fact, he got the final out in Game 7 (2017) against these same Dodgers. The off day Thursday gives the bullpens a break. Expect the lowest scoring game of the series.

I'm playing on Tampa/LA UNDER the total. We saw a little bit of everything in the previous games here at Globe Life Field. Still, the park played "big" and favors the pitchers more than saw of the other ballparks where these playoff games have been played. With a Game 1 showdown expected to feature Kershaw and Glasnow, I expect runs to be at a premium in Tuesday's opener. While both teams can obviously hit, they're also both here due to playing great defense, something which often goes unmentioned. With 25 K's in 19 1/3 playoff innings, Glasnow is absolutely capable of dominating. Kershaw is going to be absolutely determined for a huge game. He was bothered by the wind last time and ultimately charged with four runs. However, he was still pitching well (allowed 1 run through first five innings) before being hurt by a throwing error and an infield hit, which led to him being charged with four runs. The future Hall-Of-Famer is coming in here with a chip on his shoulder; the bullpen finally got a much needed day off on Monday. Speaking of bullpens, the Rays are here in large part due to theirs. They're refreshed and ready to go if/when needed. It all adds up to a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Atlanta/LA UNDER the total. After a few high-scoring games, Game 6 was of the low-scoring variety. I expect to see more quality pitching and defense in tonight's Winner-Take-All affair.  Anderson may be young but he's also got a 0.00 ERA in three playoff starts. Overall, he's 5-2 with a 1.31 ERA through nine starts, the UNDER going 5-2-2. Whether or not he starts - or the Dodgers go with an opener before using him - Gonsolin is expected to get a good share of the innings. He's got a 2.74 ERA and a sparkling 0.826 WHIP through nine starts, the UNDER going 6-2-1. Of course, its all hands on deck for a Game 7 - both managers will do whatever it takes to try and prevent the other team from scoring. Expect runs to be at a premium. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. While they've dropped three in a row, the Rays are still in a good spot. They've got Morton on the mound and they're one game away from the World Series. Morton threw five shutout innings in Monday's Game 2 win and the veteran has experience in this situation. In fact, his last Game 7 appearance, Morton recorded the final out of the Astros' World Series championship in 2017. Of course, he's got a loaded Tampa bullpen ready to support him. With the exception of Snell, yesterday's starter, in a game of this magnitude, its all hands on deck for everyone else. While McClullers also has Game 7 experience, he's got a 4.09 ERA in these playoffs compared to Morton's 0.90 ERA. I say Tampa digs deep and gets it done. 

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. I said it out loud seconds before Correa got the game-winning HR last night - "don't let this guy beat you ..." While that was costly, I'm coming right back with the Rays today. Snell hasn't been dominant in the playoffs but he has been solid. He's got a 2.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through three starts. The former Cy Young winner now has a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for his career in the postseason. Note that Snell has a 1.80 ERA in his lone "day" start in these playoffs and that his ERA was considerably lower than his night ERA, during the regular season. With his team needing him most and a spot in the World Series on the line, I expect him to come through with a gem. To his credit, Valdez has been sharp. However, while the Astros were familiar with Snell, the Rays had never previously seen Valdez and that worked in his favor in Game 1. (Tampa still won.) Now, they're seeing him for the second time in less than a week. I expect them to have some better swings. While Tampa used four pitchers yesterday, Houston used seven. I say the Rays close the deal.

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Astros won the World Series in 2017. They went to the World Series in 2019. Many of those pieces remain on this year's team. They weren't going to go down without a fight. We saw that yesterday. Greinke, their former Cy Young winner, turned back the clock and the Astros gutted out a series-extending victory. While that salvaged some pride for Greinke. Altuve and the team, they're not coming all the way back. They don't have a Cy Young winner on the mound today. The Rays have been a far better team all season and in this series. They've played superior defense and that's been a factor. The Astros are 15-17 off a win and 14-13 in day games. The Rays, on the other hand, are 17-6 off a loss and 16-7 in day games. Tampa wins. 

I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. After a low-scoring opener, yesterday's game saw 15 runs scored. I'm expecting better pitching in this one. The ballpark is still "big," yet we're working with a generously high total. Wright's career numbers aren't too impressive but he tossed six shutout innings in Atlanta's final game of the NLDS, striking out seven along the way. Urias doesn't get too many starts. However, I expect him to be up to the task. Through eight playoff innings so far, he's got a 0.00 ERA and 0.63 WHIP, recording 11 K's. It doesn't get better than that. This will mark his 15th career playoff appearance. So, he's got plenty of postseason experience. Look for the park to play a factor and for the final combined score to stay in the "single-digits."

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. I was all set to pull the trigger on Kerhaw in this one. That was in large part to the fact that I expected the future Hall-Of-Famer to pitch a great game. But it was also due to the fact that I don't believe that the Dodgers will go down 0-2. Now, with Gonsolin going instead, I still expect the Dodgers to get strong pitching and I still expect them to avoid going down 0-2. Gonsolin, to his credit, had a stellar 2.31 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season. He also pitched well in his lone start vs. the Braves, allowing one run through four innings in a game last year. The Dodgers are 14-4 off a loss. I say they improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. These are the two best teams in the NL. Both are good at both hitting and pitching. Naturally, we've got a couple of elite starters going in the opener. Fried was 7-0 (Braves were 11-1) with a 2.25 ERA in 12 starts this season. He's 26-11 with a 3.52 ERA for his career. Buehler is 24-9 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for his career. In eight postseason starts, he's got a 2.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Both bullpens have been strong and both are coming in fresh. With this series being played at Globe Life Field, the Rangers' new stadium, its important to mention the ballpark. That's because balls are not exactly "flying out" of there. Not by a longshot. As LA manager Dave Roberts noted, after having played here in the NLDS, "Um, it played big. We hit some balls that could have been homers in a lot of ballparks ... " Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. While the Astros have been playing with a chip on their shoulder, they're stepping up in class here. Tampa was the far better team all season. The Rays were fortunate to get a day off yesterday, after leaving it all on the field in beating NY. Note that they're 10-1 when playing with a day off. The Rays are also 14-7 in days games, for what its worth. While I respect Valdez, Snell, a former Cy Young Award winner, gives the Rays an advantage in the starting pitching department. He's got plenty of postseason experience, posting a solid 2.81 ERA in six appearances, four starts and he's got a score to settle with these Astros. Of course, even after a lot of innings against NY, the Rays still also have a big edge in the bullpen. This is a strong Tampa team which has had a great season. Expect a Game 1 victory. 

I'm playing on NY/TB UNDER the total. I really think highly of both tonight's starters. I backed the Yankees when Cole started Game 1 and I backed the Rays when Glasnow started Game 2. Now, with the two opposing each other, I'm expecting a pitcher's duel. Its true that neither starter was dominant last time out, leading to both those first two games finishing above the total. Thats actually worked in our favor though, as this O/U line could easily be even lower than it is. Also, a closer look at the stats shows that both starters were actually pretty good- they just made a few bad pitches along the way. Cole struck out eight Tampa hitters, allowing three runs in six innings. Glasnow, meanwhile, struck out 10 Yankee hitters in five innings. So, neither had a problem "dominating" hitters. While sometimes overlooked, that strikeout ability is important, as it allows them to get out of problem situations with minimal or no damage. True, Glasnow is on really short rest. He had this to say about that: "I'll be fine," he said. "As far as, like, health goes, I feel really good, so I'm ready to go. ... I was in the 'pen today. I was ready to come out today, too." Keep in mind that the Rays do have Snell and co. ready to go, if/when needeed. With the stakes higher than ever and both starters fired up to be opposing each other, expect runs to be very hard to come by in this one. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Many people have been counting out the Marlins since before the season started. Even fans and believers had to question the team after they got hit by Covid early in the season. But this team never listened and never quit. They continued to silence the critics and continued to fight. Now, they probably have dug themselves too deep a hole to climb out of, against a very good Braves' team. However, don't tell them that. Like always, Mattingly's team will not go down without putting up a fight. In the first two games, the Marlins were at a disadvantage in the starting pitching department, at least on paper. Alcantara was really good but he was matched up against Fried, one of the top pitchers in the game. Yesterday, they had Lopez making his first playoff start against Anderson, who had already just thrown a masterpiece, the Wildcard Rd. The shoe is on the other foot this afternoon though. This time, its Miami's Sanchez who comes off a gem in the Wildcard Rd, taking on Atlanta's Wright, who hasn't pitched since 9/25. Note that Wright is 2-7 for his career with a 6.22 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. As for Sanchez, he quietly had a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season and comes in full of confidence, after dominating the Cubs. With the Braves favored on the money-line, we're able to get the extra +1.5 runs with the Marlins for a very reasonable price. Expect AT LEAST a "run line cover." 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The A's are clearly going to be desperate. While they weren't able to bounce back yesterday, this is still a very resilient team. I fully expect their best effort. Luzardo didn't fare too well against the White Sox. However, southpaws rarely do. I'm confident that he'll fare better against a Houston team which he pitched very well against both previous times. Yes, the A's won both of Luzardo's starts against the Astros, 3-2 last month and 7-2 in August. Luzardo was solid in both, allowing four runs in 12 2/3 combined innings. Even factoring in the 4-1 loss to Chicago in the Wildcard Rd, the A's were still 6-4 in Luzardo's starts. Four of the 10, including two of the losses, came by a single run. In other words, one would be 8-2 if getting +1.5 in each of Luzardo's starts. The Astros, on the other hand, were just 3-3 when Urquidy started. Three of the six were decided by a single run, including two of the past three. The A's won when Urquidy started against them on 9/10. Expect AT LEAST another "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on NY. You may have heard the stat that team which hit more home runs than their opponent were a perfect 12-0 in the Wildcard Round. With seven home runs, its no surprise that the Yankees were 2-0. Overall, they scored 22 runs in their two games against Cleveland. Combine that potent offense with Gerritt Cole on the mound and the Yankees are very tough to beat. Snell, of course, is no slouch. However, he's no Cole either. At least, not in my opinion. After Cole, the Yankees' starters aren't as good. Meanwhile, the Rays' don't suffer much of a dropoff, as Glasnow and Morton are both solid. In other words, the Yankees really need to win when Cole is on the mound. These same starters have opposed each other once, previously. That game happened to be exactly one year ago, to the day. Cole's team (Houston) won that 10/5/19 game by a score of 3-1. Cole outlasted and outpitched Snell on that day, delivering 15 K's through 7 2/3 shutout winnings. I say history repeats itself, Cole's team again finishing on top. 

I'm playing on SD/STL UNDER the total. While the bats have reigned supreme so far in this series, I expect to see improved pitching in this evening's 'winner take all' finale. Flaherty quietly misses more bats than almost any pitcher in the league. In fact, with a 34.5% whiff-per-swing rate, he rates third in the NL in that category. Only deGrom and Burnes were better. Note that Flaherty has allowed one earned run or less in all three career starts vs. the Padres, posting a 1.10 ERA. Not surprisingly, all three of those games finished with less than nine combined runs. While the Padres' are indeed dealing with a depleted pitching staff, as manager Tingler noted: "My guess is we’re going to get a great effort from whomever we use, and it will be a number of guys. The bullpen has been prepared and ready. They kept us in the game." 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Atlanta UNDER the total. Given the quality of these starting pitchers, this is a generous O/U line. Bauer, who has a fair amount of postseason experience, has been brilliant all season. He led the National League with a 1.73 ERA. He had a dominant 0.795 WHIP to go along with that ERA. On the road, averaging nearly seven innings, his ERA dipped to 1.32, his WHIP falling to 0.706. Last time out, his team needing him, Bauer struck out 12 Brewers, allowing just one run through eight innings. Fried, who has some postseaon experience (out of the bullpen) is the ace of the Braves staff. He checks in with a perfect 7-0 record, a stellar 2.25 ERA. He returned from injury only to tweak his ankle. However, he's reportedly good to go, having made it through a bullpen session. He limited the Reds to a single run, through six complete innings, in a 4-1 Atlanta win, the lone time he faced them. I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. After backing the Reds in Monday's opener, I played on the Brewers yesterday. For today's series finale, I'm coming back with the Reds. Bauer is in simply outstanding form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.29 ERA and a 0.714 WHIP. In that 21-inning span, he recorded 27 K's against just three walks. Nothing new for Bauer; he's been getting it done all season. Through 10 starts, averaging 6.5 innings per, he's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.816 WHIP. Clearly, he's deserving of a much better record than he has. The same cannot be said for Houser. He's 1-5 with a 5.33 ERA. Over his past three starts, he's got a 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP, averaging just 4.3 innings. Look for Bauer to get the better of Houser in this one, the Reds getting the important "W."

I'm playing on SF. These teams are both mathematically still alive for the Wildcard. However, even with a few recent wins, the Rockies know that its probably not happening for them. That's particularly true without Arenado in their lineup. The Giants' hopes are slightly better but they know yesterday's loss was costly. Cueto, their opening day starter, let them down. Determined to bounce back, I expect a much better effort. The Giants have won each of Smyly's last three starts and they hit Freeland hard earlier this month. They've had success against southpaw starters and they're still 18-8 against sub-500 teams. Expect them to improve on those stats with an important victory. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a big game for both teams; I expect the Reds to have the advantage. These same starters opposed each other last month, at Milwaukee. Woodruff and Brewers came out on top that day. When he's on, Castillo can be nasty. That's noteworthy as Casttillo is currently in much better form than he was prior to last month's meeting. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings in a 1-0 win, striking out 10. He retired nine of the final 10 batters he faced and allowed just three hits overall. In his previous start, Castillo tossed a complete game in a 3-1 win over the Cards. After the 1-0 win, Reds manager David Bell said: “He backed up his last start, He couldn’t get much better than that, but to be able to back that up was huge for us.” Woodruff has gone five innings or less in each of his last three road starts. The Brewers are 0-2 his last two on the road. Look for Castillo to continue his strong recent pitching, the Reds drawing first blood in this important series. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While they want to keep winning, the Dodgers have already clinched a playoff spot. The Rockies, on the other hand, are desperate. Their playoff hopes are dwindling and they simply can't afford to keep losing. I like their chances in this one. Freeland has a respectable 4.22 ERA in six home starts. Meanwhile, Urias has a 5.40 ERA and poor 1.714 WHIP on the road. The Rockies have already seen him this month, Urias allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings. That was a 1-run game, won by the Rockies. Desperate for a victory, expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing on LA. While the Angels are fairly heavy favorites, given the matchup, I believe that the line could easily be much higher. Bundy is in outstanding form. Last time out, he recorded 12 K's against just one walk, allowing only two runs and four hits, while going 7 1/3 innings. In his previous start, he also went seven innings, again allowing two runs. That time, he struck out eight while walking one. He's allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and in six of seven. On the season, through nine starts, he's got a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.914 WHIP, averaging 6.4 innings per start. Not surprisingly, the Angels have won each of Bundy's last three starts. They provided him with 28 total runs in those games and he should get solid support once again. Smith has only made two starts, one in July and one on 9/11. He went only three innings each time out, walking six in his lone road start. With Smith not likely to last long, we'll see an Arizona bullpen which entered the series with a 5.44 ERA and 1.744 WHIP on the road. Expect Bundy to outpitch and outlast Smith, the Angels winning in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like Chicago's chances of winning this one 'outright,' in a game which could well be close, I'm happy to improve my chances even further and grab the extra +1.5 runs. Cease keeps the Sox in the game every time out. In fact, since allowing four runs in his first start back in July, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all eight starts, two or less in seven of those. Overall, Chicago is 5-4 in his starts. However, a closer look shows that three of those four losses came by a single run. In other words, one would be 8-1 if getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Sox in each of Cease's starts. In three home starts, Cease has a stellar 1.72 ERA. While Berrios can be tough at times, he's got a poor 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in four road starts. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' from Cease and the Sox. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I expect the Rangers to win this one outright but am happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs to improve my/their chances even further. Lynn was extremely sharp last time out. Through seven innings, he limited the Angels to one run on four hits. He's gone a minimum of six innings in nine of 10 starts, going five in the other. Off yesterday's double-header, Lynn's ability to provide innings is even more important. Overall, he's averaged 6.4 innings per start. Montas, on the other hand, averages 4.8 innings per start, 4.3 innings per road start. Lynn has a 2.52 ERA and 0.979 WHIP on the season. At home, his ERA dips to 2.00. Montas has a 5.73 ERA and in four road starts, he's got a horrible 9.00 ERA and 1.941 WHIP. Grab the extra +1.5 runs with Lynn and the Rangers.

I'm playing on COLORADO. I successfully played on the Angels yesterday. However, LA had Bundy on the mound and was up against Gibson and the Rangers. There's no Bundy today and now they're at Coors, facing Marquez. I feel that this will prove to be a far more difficult task. Canning and Bundy actually have very similar stats. Canning has a 4.54 ERA and 1.361 WHIP. Marquez has a 4.58 ERA and 1.345 WHIP. However, those numbers don't take into account the fact that this will be the fifth time that Marquez has had to pitch here at Colorado. Despite his difficult home park, Marquez still averages six innings per start here. Canning averages only 4 1/3 innnings per road start. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Angels have struggled on the road. They've also had trouble against NL teams. Desperate to snap their skid, look for the Rockies to move to 46-26 the past 2+ seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. After getting blown out yesterday and having dropped the first two games in the series, the Braves will be all business in this one. Milone gets the call for the Braves and he's been much better (3.79 ERA) at home. While he didn't go that deep, Milone got on track last time out, allowing just one run. He struck out three without walking a batter. Atlanta won 7-1. Lopez, on the other hand, allowed five runs in four innings, in his last start. With the Marlins just 4-9 vs. southpaws, 34-59 the past 2+ seasons, I say the Braves bounce back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. This line opened in the pick'em range but I feel that the A's easily could be favored. Both starters have similar stats. Fiers has a 4.86 ERA and 1.432 WHIP. Richards has a 4.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. However, a closer look reveals that Fiers is actually in much better current form. Over his past three starts, Fiers has a 2.60 ERA. Richards, on the other hand, has a horrible 9.94 ERA over his past three starts. As for the relief pitching, here's an excerpt from yesterday's writeup on these same A's: "... Meanwhile, the SB bullpen has a 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from Petco, converting on 55.6% of save chances. That doesn't compare favorably to the A's pen. Oakland relievers have a combined 1.53 ERA (0.97 WHIP) at home, converting on 88.9% of save tries. The A's are 81-51 in day games the past few seasons, 10-5 this year..." Expect Oakland to continue its afternoon success here. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Pittsburgh OVER the total. We should see plenty of offense in this one. These same two starters opposed each other a few weeks ago and the teams combined for 15 runs. Desclafani checks in with a 7.71 ERA. Last time out, he gave up seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, walking more than he struck out. Williams (1-5, 5.50 ERA) was a little better but far from good. In four innings, he gave up five runs, three of them earned. Both those games hit double-digits in total runs. Willams now has a 7.71 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his last three starts. The Cincy bullpen has a 5.21 ERA on the road while the Pitt bullpen has a 5.30 ERA at home. Look for this one to reach double-digits, one again. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Angels cooled down the Padre bats last night. I successfully backed Heaney for the second straight start; he tossed seven shutout innings, limiting SD to three hits. Heaney noted: ''They have a real good lineup but they have a lot of guys who haven't faced me..." Tonight, the Padres will face another pitcher who they are unfamiliar with. The A's are 3-0 when Luzardo starts at home. Luzardo is 2-0 with a sparkling 1.06 ERA in those games. He's also got the support of an Oakland bullpen which has a combined 1.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP here at home. By comparison, SD relievers have an ERA above five away from Petco. The A's have been excellent at home. They're well rested and I expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing LA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) With the Padres favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Angels for a very reasonable price. While I like the Angels' chances of the outright win, I'm also happy to increase my chances of winning by utilizing the run-line. The Padres pulled away for a big win yesterday. I expect a much better effort from the Angels this evening. LA, which has now dropped three in a row, is 4-2 after three or more losses this season. I successfully played on the Angels last time Heaney pitched, stating the following: "...I believe that Heaney is better than his numbers indicate. The M's probably feel the same way as Heaney limited them to one run on only three hits, through 5 2/3 innings, the last time he started against them..." Heaney made me look good as he delivered a dominant effort. Through 7 2/3 innings, he allowed just four hits and one run, while striking out 10. I look for Heaney, who has seen two of his last three starts have decided by a single run, to give us more quality tonight. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Things haven't gone as planned for the Reds of late but I expect that to change here. While I lost with them yesterday, I'm coming right back with them today. Mahle has a stellar 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in three home starts. Oviedo, on the other hand, makes his first road start. In his two home starts, he has yet to go more than five innings. While Mahle struggled a bit at St. Louis a couple of starts ago, he bounced back with a dominant effort last time out. Through 6 2/3 innings, he limited the Cubs to two hits while striking out 11. Expect the Reds to bounce back. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Cards took yesterday's game but I expect the Reds to bounce back today. Gray is 5-1 with a superb 1.91 ERA. At home, averaging better than six innings per start, he's 4-0 with an even better 1.07 ERA to go along with an outstanding 0.75 WHIP. On the other hand, Kim has a 1.635 WHIP to show for his lone road start. The Reds hoped to be a lot better and I still believe that they're a stronger team than their record indicates. Behind another quality effort from Gray, expect them to bounce back with an important victory. 

I'm playing on Clev/KC OVER the total. These starters boast some pretty impressive numbers which is why we're working with such a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keller came back down to earth last time out, as he allowed five runs in four innings. He gave up six hits and walked three; nine baserunners in four innings. Bieber, to his credit, turned in another quality start last time out, allowing two runs through six innings. He did give up four hits and walked three though. Good but not perfect. He's made six career starts vs. KC and five of them have finished with double-digits in total runs, four finishing with 14 or more. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on the NY YANKEES. After getting swept in yesterday's double-header, the Yankees have now lost seven straight for the first time since June of 2017. Expect them to stop the bleeding right here. The Yanks haven't lost eight in a row this entire millennium. Happ was sharp last time out and is ready to go. Last time out, he allowed just three hits and a single run, through 5 1/3 innings. He had this to say: "I know I'm healthy and have been healthy and ready to pitch since what would have been (the start of) the regular season and since summer camp and the start of the abbreviated season I've been ready to go in all those cases with no issues." He's 4-2 for his career against the Mets. Expect him to do enough and for the Yankee bats to come alive, the skid finally coming to an end. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Both teams could badly use a win but I believe the Rockies will be the team which gets it. Marquez had a bad game last time out. However, that was against Houston and it was at Colorado. He's still a quality pitcher and he's going to be hungry to get back on track. Keep in mind that he's got a dominant 1.93 ERA (0.911 WHIP) in three road starts, averaging more than six innings in those games. Young, on the other hand, has made only two starts (4.32 ERA) and he's averaging just four innings per. Colorado relievers have a 2.31 ERA away from Coors. The Rockies are 5-1 in Marquez's last six starts vs. Arizona. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) I've successfully played against the Rangers during their current skid. However, with Lynn on the mound, I expect them to stop the bleeding today. Getting an extra +1.5 runs, in what could be a close game, improves our chances even further. All Lynn has done this season is post a 1.37 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. In three home starts, his ERA dips to a remarkable 1.06, Lynn allowing just two earned runs through 17 innings. On the other hand, Luzardo allowed six earned runs in three 1/3 innings, in his lone road start, good for an awful 16.22 ERA. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from Lynn and the Rangers. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Many will see the Twins favored like this, on the road, and wonder who this Randy Dobnak guy is. That very fact, that he is still relatively unknown, is actually whats preventing this line from even higher. Through five starts, Dobnak has a spectacular 1.42 ERA and 0.869 WHIP. In two road starts, his ERA dips to a microscopic 1.20. Singer, on the other hand, has a 4.56 ERA. Over his last three starts, that ERA climbs to 5.16. Dobnak and the Twins got the better of Singer and the Royals, at Minnesota, less than a week ago. Playing at KC, we're able to get the Twins at a lower price than we were for that one. Dobnak, of course, is backed by the better lineup. The Twins entered Friday with a 100-66 record against divisional opponents the past couple of seasons. During that span, KC is 74-95 within the division. With the Royals just 23-37 their last 60 as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range, I say that Dobnak and the Twins win again. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the M's to win outright, given that they lost 2-1 last time Margevicius pitched, getting an extra +1.5 runs may prove helpful. Yesterday, I played against the M's, laying -1.5 runs with their opponent. That was Kershaw and the Dodgers though, which is a far cry from Allard and the Rangers. Allard has a 5.25 ERA, an ugly 9.00 ERA in two road starts. He's backed by a Ranger bullpen which has really struggled on the road. On the other hand, Margevicius has a sparkling 1.93 ERA to go along with a 0.857 WHIP. M's bounce back with AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Off three straight losses, the Rockies will be happy to have Marquez on the mound. Their ace has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 1.094 WHIP on the season and that includes a 2.70 ERA here at Coors, where he averages a healthy 6.5 innings per start. Javier, on the other hand, has a 6.00 ERA on the road, averaging only 4.5 innings. Therefore, its worth noting that the Houston bullpen has a combined 5.01 ERA and a terrible 1.98 WHIP on the road thus far, converting just one of four save tries. Look for Marquez to outpitch and outlast Javier, the Rockies bouncing back and improving to 7-3 in day games. 

I'm playing on NY/Miami UNDER the total. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, we should see the pitcher's take center stage in this one. The Mets have their b2b Cy Young Award winner on the mound. On the season, deGrom has a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. The Marlins counter with Lopez, who also has excellent stats. In fact, his 2.25 ERA is even lower than deGrom's. He's allowed just four runs through his three starts, two or less in each. Not to be outdone, over his past eight starts, dating back to last season, deGrom has allowed a combined seven earned runs, two or less in every one of them and 0 in half. These two starters opposed each other on Aug. 9th, at NY. That one finished with a final score of 4-2. Given that Lopez has historically pitched much better at home, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here.