I'm playing on SF and Washington to finish UNDER the total. Tough beat for those who played the "under" in this series last night, as the Giants scored four in the bottom of the 8th to bring the score to 6-1, topping the total by half a run. Assuming we can avoid late runs like that, I expect this afternoon's series finale to finish with a lower combined score. It should be noted that we're currently getting much better line value that was available for last night's contest. (Last night, one had to lay hefty juice to play at under 6.5.)



Strasburg may still be fairly young but he's already established himself as one of the best in the game. He's 13-5 with a stellar 2.90 ERA and 1.118 WHIP on the season. He's also been on his best away from Washington. In 12 road starts, Strasburg is 8-2 with a superb 2.41 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. In those 12 games, he has 99 K's in 71 innings, allowing a mere three home runs. Over his last two starts, Stasburg has given up only one run in 12 innings.



Admittedly, Lincecum hasn't been as consistent as SF fans would have liked this season. However, he's been much better at home all season long and he's really been coming into his own recently. Over his last three starts, Lincecum has a stellar 2.25 ERA, the UNDER going 2-0-1. He didn't give up a single home run in any of those games. For the season, in 12 home starts, Lincecum has 75 K's in 76.3 innings, also allowing only three home runs. Facing Strasburg, I expect "The Freak" to bring his A-Game.



The Giants have seen the UNDER go 19-10-2 the past few seasons when listed as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, including an 8-4 mark in that situation this season.



Even after last night's "bad beat," the Giants have also seen the UNDER go a lucrative 85-59-10 when playing a home game with an O/U line of seven or less, including a 26-18-3 mark in that situation this season. I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. *10 Getaway TOM

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I've successfully backed the Giants each of the last two days. While I don't regularly play on a team three games in a row, I feel that this will prove to be a good spot to do so.

Yesterday, the Giants were trailing in the bottom of the 8th but exploded for five runs, highlighted by a big Hunter Pence home run. That's the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. On the other hand, the Nationals saw their winning streak come to an end yesterday. After a lengthy winning streak is snapped, teams can often be susceptible to a bit of a letdown - leading to a second straight loss.

Vogelsong tossed seven shutout innings at St. Louis last time out, allowing just three hits. He's having an outstanding season and he's been dominant here at SF. In 11 home starts, Vogelsong has a superb 1.42 ERA.

Gonzalez is also tough and he's had success both at home and away this season. Still, while his 3.30 road ERA is definitely solid, its not nearly as good as Vogelsong's 1.42 mark at home.

Gonzalez does get a few more K's than Vogelsong. However, he's also been giving up more hits of late. Gonzalez has allowed nine hits in each of his last two games, a total of 18. Vogelsong, on the other hand, has given up just eight combined hits his past two games.

The Nats have scored more runs overall than the Giants. However, a closer look shows that the Giants average 4.5 runs per game vs. southpaw starters which is better than the 4.2 which the Nats average against right-handers. The Giants are a dominating 24-11 (+14.2) against left-handers and they're also 3-1 in games against Gonzalez, none of them this season. Behind another strong effort from Vogelsong, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. *9

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Padres saw their winning streak come to an end yesterday, as they couldn't hang on to an early lead. That was a "deflating" type of loss. The Braves also lost, falling short at New York. They didn't blow that game the way that the Padres did though - and they very nearly rallied for a comeback win in the bottom of the 9th. With an expected edge on the mound, I expect them to have a much easier time in bouncing back this evening.

Minor, a #1 pick in 2009, has really come into his own of late. He's got a 2.13 ERA and 0.842 WHIP his last six starts. During that stretch, he has 32K's to just eight walks.

While Minor is only 2-6 on the road, he's 4-2 here at home. Opposing batters hit .282 against him on the road but only .208 against the young southpaw here at Atlanta.

Note that with yesterday's loss, San Diego is now 15-25 (-9.1) against left-handed starters.

Stults has solid numbers. However, he hasn't made that many starts - as he was on the disabled list and was working out of the bullpen since coming back.

Keep in mind that this former 15th rounder has been around a number of years now and is only 10-12 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on his career. He has a career road ERA of 5.11 to go along with a 1.63 WHIP. In five appearances (1 start) vs. the Braves, Stults is 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA.

The Braves are 13-7 their last 20 as a host in this series. In addition to having the superior lineup, I believe they've got the superior starter here. While the price is admittedly a bit on the steep side, I expect the Braves to get it done. *6

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I had the Pirates yesterday so was sick to see them fall behind 5-0 against the Padres right out of the gate. I needn't have worried though. Pittsburgh responded by scoring the game's final 11 runs, cruising to an 11-5 victory. Back on the winning track, I expect the Pirates to make it two in a row today.

While the Dodgers are 29-28 on the road, the Pirates are a commanding 36-20 here at Pittsburgh.

The Pirates have been excellent as small to medium-sized home favorites and they're also 3-1 (+2.4) when Karstens has taken the mound here. That's not surprising, given that he's got an outstanding 1.33 ERA and 0.963 ERA here. Averaging nearly seven innings per home start, Karstens has only allowed one home run here.

Giving home runs isn't usually an issue for Harang either. However, he has struggled with his control lately. While Karstens has allowed just one walk his last two starts, Harang has allowed seven walks his last two starts - both pitchers throwing the same # of innings.

Throw in the fact that Harang also gave up 15 hits in those two games and you can see why the Dodgers lost those two games. (Harang gave up 10 combined runs in 11 innings and the Dodgers lost by a combined score of 10-3.)

For the season, Harang has a respectable 3.74 ERA on the road. However, a fairly high 1.500 WHIP shows that he's been allowing a lot of baserunners - which means that ERA could easily be higher. Note that he's also averaging just 5.6 innings per road start.

Harang's last start vs. the Pirates came last August. He got the "W" but was very fortunate to do so, as he allowed 13 hits and gave up three walks, lasting just five innings. He's allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts vs. the Pirates.

Karstens allowed three runs at LA back in the spring but lost 3-2. In his last home start vs. the Dodgers, he allowed just one run. He didn't get the victory but the Pirates did, a 4-1 win last season.

The Pirates were swept at LA earlier. Tonight, they get some payback. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NY and Atlanta to finish OVER the total. I waited for this line to drop from 7.5 to 7 before releasing this play. As expected, it has now started to do so. (Make sure to play at 7, not 7.5.) I won with the "under" in Sheets' last start, so I'm well aware that he's been pitching well and also that he's been a profitable "under" pitcher since making his comeback. I expect his "under" streak to come to an end here though.

While Sheets has definitely been impressive, he certainly hasn't been unhittable. Over his last two starts, he's given up 18 hits in 14 combined innings.

With this being the Sunday night game, note that opposing hitters are batting .171 against Sheets in his two daytime starts but .305 against him during the evening.

Sheets beat the Mets on July 15th. That was at Atlanta though and now the Mets will be seeing him for the second time in less than a month. He's got a career ERA above four vs. NY.

Lastly, note that the 7 1/3 innings Sheets threw last time out was his longest outing yet and that he failed to strike out a single batter in those 7+ innings.

Niese allowed four runs on eight hits last time out, while pitching six innings. He's got a 4.16 ERA at home on the season. After averaging almost one strikeout per inning over the first three months of the season, Niese has struck out just 31 batters in 48 innings in July and August.

While Niese is 4-1 with a stellar 2.85 ERA during the day, he's 4-5 with a poor 4.73 ERA during the evening. Big difference.

Five of Niese's last nine starts have finished with double-digits in combined runs and seven of those nine finished with at least seven runs. Overall, those nine starts averaged 8.78 runs. Note that Niese is backed by a NY bullpen which has struggled all season.

With yesterday's game topping the total in the second inning, the OVER is now 40-23-5 when the Mets have played at night. I expect those stats to improve here. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants got back on track in a big way yesterday, administering a 9-3 beat-down on the visiting Rockies. I expect them to close out the series with another win here.

Zito came through with a very solid outing last time, holding the Cardinals to two runs through 6 2/3 innings. He earned the "W" in a 4-2 Giants' victory.

While Zito has certainly had some consistency issues, facing the Rockies should give him an excellent shot at another quality start. In 16 starts vs. Colorado, Zito is 6-2 (team is 11-5) with a superb 2.43 ERA and 1.063 WHIP.

In his lone 2012 start vs. the Rockies, Zito tossed a complete-game 4-hit shutout, his best start of the season. The Giants won 7-0.

While he may not deliver another complete-game shutout, Zito should get some solid run support. Not only did the Giants break out with nine runs yesterday, they'll be facing a struggling starter who they pounded both times that they saw him.

In two starts vs. the Giants, White has lost by scores of 7-0 and 9-1. He's got an awful 8.38 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in those games.

In six road starts this season, White is 1-3 with a brutal 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP. He's averaged only 4.5 innings in those starts, walking more than he's struck out.

With yesterday's loss, the Rockies are now just 9-26 (-17.5) in day games. (They're also 3-15 on Sundays!) While yesterday's loss came against a tough right-hander (Cain) they're also just 10-21 (-10.5) against southpaw starters. Things won't get any better here. *9 Div GOW

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Nationals continue to roll and they won big in yesterday's series opener. I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back big here though.
Miley was a hard-luck loser last time out. He allowed only one run through six innings - and it was unearned - but lost at Pittsburgh. Still, he's 12-7 with a terrific 2.85 and 1.085 WHIP on the road for the season. At home, his ERA dips to a super 2.56. He's 6-3 here, averaging 6.6 innings per start. In 59.7 innings of work here, he's allowed only three home runs.
Jackson, on the other hand, has allowed 10 home runs on the road. The Nats are only 4-8 (-3.9) his 12 road starts and just 8-13 (-6) in his 21 starts overall.
Jackson has given up four runs in each of his last two starts vs. Arizona and he lost his last start here at Arizona.
Miley tossed six shutout innings in his lone start against Washington, winning by a score of 8-1.
While the Nats do score a healthy 4.6 runs per game on the road, the Diamondbacks manage a whopping 5.3 per game here a home, hitting .278.
The Diamondbacks have quietly gone a profitable 33-17 (+10.1) the last 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Behind another strong effort from Miley, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Lohse may have had the better season - he's had a great year. However, Halladay is still the better pitcher - at least in my humble opinion. I backed the Phillies in Halladay's last start and Doc came through with seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits. That got him his first win in some time and figures to be just what the "doctor" ordered, to get him on track.



Halladay has a stellar 2.81 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in seven starts vs. the Cardinals. In his last home start against them, he allowed just one run through eight complete innings, striking out seven and walking one.



Lohse was also matched up against Halladay the last time that he pitched here at Phialdelphia. Halladay won that 10/1/2011 matchup - he allowed three runs through eight innings, striking out eight and walking one. Lohse allowed six runs, five of them earned, in 5 1/3 innings. Philadelphia, which was -220, won by a score of 11-6.



The Phillies remain a profitable 39-21 (+10) the past 60 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, including a 14-7 (+4.4) mark in that role this season. They're also 4-1 (+3.1) after allowing 10 or more runs.



I mentioned that I felt Halladay was a bit under-valued at the moment. I still feel that's the case - however, it may not be after another win here. *10 Feast

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Padres have been enjoying a rare winning streak. However, that's come at home against the struggling Cubs. Now, they're on the road to take on a Pirates team which is determined to stay in the N.L. playoff race the entire way this season. They're also on the road, playing at a venue which has been very difficult on visiting teams this season. With the Pirates hungry to bounce back from yesterday's loss, I expect the SD winning streak to come an end this evening.



McDonald had a couple of sub-par starts to end July. However, he was solid last time out, delivering a quality start at Cincinnati. His control returned as he had seven K's to just one walk. That was a good sign as free passes had been an issue in his previous start. Now, McDonald returns home where he's been outstanding all season.



In 11 starts here. McDonald is 5-2 and has a superb 2.15 ERA and 0.929 WHIP. He's averaging nearly seven innings (6.8) per home start and has a allowed just five home runs in more than 75 innings here.



McDonald hasn't faced the Padres yet this season. However, he beat them in his lone start against them last season, allowing two runs through six innings.



Volquez is off back to back terrible starts. Two starts ago, he gave up five runs in five innings - but got bailed out by the offense. (Not something that the Padre offense does regularly.) Last time out, he was much worse. He lasted just 1 2/3 innings and gave up four earned runs. Four walks didn't help matters.



Volquez has been decent enough at pitcher-friendly Petco but his road numbers are now 4.39 and 1.552 - and those numbers don't compare at all favorably to McDonald's home stats. Volquez's team lost both his 2011 starts vs. the Pirates - and he gave up nine runs in 10 2/3 innings.



The Padres are still 22-34 on the road while the Pirates are still 35-18 on the road. That includes a 12-5 (+5.1) mark when they've been listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. All things considered, I feel that this line could easily be much higher. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Cubs snapped their losing streak yesterday while extending the Reds' skid. Today, I expect Cincinnati to respond with a much needed victory.

Bailey gets the call and he's been excellent on the road all season. The Reds are a highly profitable 8-2 (+6.6) in his 10 road starts. Bailey has averaged 6.8 innings in those starts, compiling a terrific 2.63 ERA and 1.112 WHIP. In 68+ road innings, he's only allowed four home runs. In his last road start, he tossed seven shutout innings.

The Reds are 6-2 in Bailey's starts vs. Chicago, including 2-0 this season. He's got a 2.77 ERA in those two starts. They won his start here at Wrigley by a score of 9-4. Bailey allowed one earned run in seven innings. He gave up just five hits and didn't walk a batter.

Germano has only made two starts this season, going 1-1. He's been around a long time though (big league career began in 2004) and he's got a 9-21 career record with a 4.83 ERA. He's only had more than one win once his entire career - and that was way back in 2007 when he had seven.

While the Cubs are 24-32 (-5.2) in afternoon games, the Reds are a healthy 26-13 (+12.2) when playing in the day.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Reds are still 26-14 the last 40 in this series. They finally get back on track today. *9

I'm playing on Detroit and NY to finish UNDER the total. This has been a high-scoring series thus far but I expect a pitcher's duel for this afternoon's finale.

Kuroda has been very solid all season and he's been excellent of late. For the season, he's 10-8 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.176 WHIP. He's seen the UNDER go a lucrative 16-6, including 7-2 on the road.

Last time out, Kuroda lost 1-0 vs. Felix Hernandez and the Mariners. While that was a hard-luck loss, he's now got a superb 1.69 ERA his last three starts, all of them finishing with five or fewer combined runs.

Run support may well again be an issue for Kuroda, as Fister has been dominant of late. After tossing a complete-game last time out and allowing just one run, Fister now has a 1.87 ERA and 0.958 WHIP his last three starts. All three of those fell below the total.

Neither starter has hurt himself at all recently. During his last three games, Kuroda has 17 K's and just three walks, giving up zero home runs. Meanwhile, Fister has 19 K's and just three walks, also allowing zero home runs.

Kuroda has seen the UNDER go 1-0-1 in two starts vs. Detroit, each of those finishing with eight or fewer combined runs.

Fister hasn't faced the Yankees this season but was tough in both 2011 starts against them. Each of those stayed below the total, they had scores of 4-1 and 3-2.

The Yankees have seen the UNDER go 23-12 when playing during the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 31-14-2 when they've played during the day. With both starters in excellent current form, I expect those stats to get even better here. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. I won with the Rays yesterday and I like them again here. Yesterday, I noted that I expected Shields to pitch well and also that I expected the return of Longoria to provide a boost to the lineup. Both things happened. Longoria was 1 for 3 with an RBI while Shields delivered eight excellent innings. They won't have Shields going today but I do expect the Rays to get another strong pitching performance - something they've been able to count on for a long time. I also expect them to score some runs.

The "rejuvenated" Tampa lineup will face Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva came back down to earth last time out, giving up four runs in a loss to Seattle. He noted: "It's very frustrating ... The problem ... was my slider to lefties, the backdoor slider, I just couldn't get it down and in enough."

Villanueva can't be too happy to see the Rays. It was almost exactly one year ago that he faced them previously. In that Aug. 3, 2011 match, Villanueva got rocked for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings. That was his lone start against the Rays but he's also had real problems in relief against them. In three appearances out of the bullpen against Tampa this season, Villanueva has given up seven runs in three innings.

It should also be noted that Villanueva just missed his last start as he had to go to the Dominican Republic over a family issue. That could easily affect his rhythm, as he'd begun to become accustomed to starting on a regular basis.

Cobb goes for the Rays and he was dominant last time out. He went into Oakland and held a red hot A's club to just four hits and one run through seven innings. He was also tough in his previous start, holding the Angels to three runs in seven innings. Over those two starts, he's recorded nine K's against only one walk.

Cobb will have the advantage of facing a depleted Toronto lineup that has never seen him before. He'll also be backed by a well-rested Tampa bullpen which has been outstanding the last few weeks and which has a stellar 2.26 ERA here on the season.

The Rays have dominated the Jays here. All things considered, this price could easily be much higher. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians broke my heart (and hurt my bankroll!) yesterday by losing in the 9th inning. That'll happen from time to time. I'm willing to give them another shot this afternoon.



Masterson struggled in each of his last two starts. Both those were on the road though, one of them at Minnesota vs. these same Twins. He's back home now though and I expect a much better showing. In his last home start, Masterson tossed 7 1/3 innings, allowing only a single run.



For the season, Masterson has an ugly 6.68 ERA and 1.69 WHIP on the road but a solid 3.33 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at home.



It should also be noted that Masterson's daytime ERA is MUCH better than his ERA under the lights.



The line sows that Duensing allowed only two earned runs in six innings last time out, which qualifies as a quality start. However, he actually allowed five runs (three were unearned) while giving up 10 hits. So, he definitely wasn't dominating.



Duensing has a poor 4.88 ERA when pitching during the afternoon. It should also be noted that Duensing averages only 4.4 runs per road start while Masterson averages 6.7 per home start.



As a team, the Twins are scoring 4.0 runs per game during the afternoon while the Indians are averaging 4.6. Enough's enough. Cleveland gets back on track in a big way here. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Rays are fairly heavy favorites here for good reason. They've got Evan Longoria coming back to give the lineup a much-needed boost and they've got James Shields coming off his best start of the season. Desperate for a victory, they'll face a mediocre fill-in pitcher who is making a spot start. I expect them to start the series with a big win.

Shields is capable of dominating and we saw that from him last time out. Perhaps bothered by the thought of leaving Tampa, Shields had been struggling a bit. However, after learning he was staying here, he went out and pitched a gem last time out. In fact, he delivered a complete game 3-hit shutout, striking out 11 and walking none. The Rays won 8-0. They're now 13-9 (+3.1) in his starts.

The Jays know all about how Shields can dominate. Indeed, Shields is 3-0 with a superb 1.10 ERA in his last four starts against Toronto. In his last two starts against the Jays, he's recorded 22 K's while walking two.

On the other hand, Happ got hammered in his lone start vs. the Rays, giving up five runs in five innings. He walked three and gave up nine hits, good for a 9.00 ERA and 2.40 WHIP.

Happ is 1-4 with a terrible 5.69 ERA 1.579 WHIP in seven road starts this season, allowing nine home runs in 38 innings. Happ has pitched his last four times out of the bullpen. He was already supposed to replace Cecil in the rotation but and is now starting two days earlier than expected, due to Villanueva leaving the team for personal reasons.

Longoria should be able to have an immediate impact - he's made eight rehab starts, most recently going 2 for 3 (with a walk) at Triple-A (Durham) on Sunday. Keep in mind that he was hitting .329 before getting hurt.

Shields didn't need any help last time out. However, its worth noting that the Tampa Bay bullpen has an outstanding 0.54 ERA over the last 16 games.

The Rays have dominated the Jays here at Florida. Given the pitching matchup, I expect them to continue that dominance here and feel that the high price could even be much higher. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Minnesota and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished well above the total, as the Twins scored 10 runs in the second inning alone. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair here.



Admittedly, the line on Kluber doesn't look very good. He's made one start and has a horrible 12.46 ERA. That's because of an awful first inning in his major league "starting" debut. Once he got past the "first inning jitters," Kluber actually settled down and gave up no more runs and only three hits. He pitched well in Triple A this season and I expect him to be much better now that he's got a start under his belt.



Deduno has pitched well when called upon. He tossed six shutout innings at Boston last time out.



The Twins bats came to life yesterday. However, they still entered this series hitting only .239 on the road, averaging a mere 3.9 runs. The Indians haven't been much better at Cleveland. They entered the series hitting .258 at home, averaging just 4.1 runs per game here.



We're getting an extra run to work with on the O/U line than was available for yesterday's game. That's noteworthy as we find the UNDER at 10-6 in games at Cleveland where the O/U line was nine or 9.5. I look for those numbers to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10 O/U Best Bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Twins crushed the Indians in yesterday's opener. I expect The Tribe to get some payback today.

Admittedly, the line on Kluber doesn't look very good. He's made one start and has a horrible 12.46 ERA. That's because of an awful first inning in his major league "starting" debut. Once he got past the "first inning jitters," Kluber actually settled down and gave up no more runs and only three hits. He pitched well in Triple A this season and I expect him to be much better now that he's got a start under his belt.

While Kluber will have the advantage of facing the Twins' hitters for the first time, the Indians just had a look at Deduno on 7/28. Admittedly, Deduno has pitched well when called upon. However, he's got more walks than strikeouts and that will eventually catch up to a pitcher. Over his last two starts, Deduno has walked nine.

The Twins are still 7-13 (-2.2) when playing a road game with an O/U line of either nine or 9.5. Meanwhile, the Indians are still 11-5 (+4.8) when playing a home game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. Kluber delivers a much better effort in his second start and the Indians finally snap their skid. *9

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. After winning with the Phillies on both Saturday and Sunday, I stayed off them yesterday. (Instead, I cashed with them to go 'under' the total.) Good thing too, as the Phillies lost by a score of 6-1. I'm coming right back with them again on Tuesday though.



Hamels recently lost at Atlanta. He's still 11-6 with a 3.34 ERA (3.10 at home) on the season though and he dominated the Braves (14-1 win last July) the last time that he faced them here, at Philadelphia.



Minor has been very tough at home of late and he beat the Phillies there recently. He's 2-5 in 10 road starts though and has a terrible 6.16 ERA in those games.



I expect Hamels to get the better of the Braves this time, as the Phillies bounce back and even the series. *9

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Reds have certainly had the much better season. I expect the Brewers to have the edge in tonight's series opener though.

The Brewers send Gallardo to the mound and he's off a gem in his last outing. Through seven innings, Gallardo allowed only three hits and one run, striking out five and walking just one. The Brewers won 10-1, the type of effort that Gallardo can build on. He's 5-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home, striking out 82 in 75 innings here.

Arroyo also got the win in his last start. However, he wasn't that sharp. He allowed seven hits and four runs against light-hitting San Diego. He struck out only one, while walking two.

While the Reds have had the better bullpen, the Brewers have hit much better here than Cincinnati has on the road. For the season, the Brewers are hitting .267 at home while averaging a very healthy 5.5 runs per game. On the other hand, the Reds are averaging a mere 4.1 runs per game on the road, hitting .248.

While the Reds are 5-7 as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, the Brewers are 11-7 (+0.8) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect Gallardo to get the better of Arroyo, earning some revenge for a recent game at Cincinnati, as the Brew Crew get back on track in a big way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Atlanta and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams have been profitable for "under" bettors recently. The Braves saw yesterday's game slip beneath the number and that brought the UNDER to 6-0 their last six games. The Phillies' game vs. Arizona finished above the total but did so barely. Even still, the Phillies have still seen four of five finish below the number.

There was once a time, many years ago now, that Ben Sheets was "money" for "under" bettors. I don't have the numbers handy - but he went on quite a run for the better part of a season. While the sample size remains relatively small, that's been the case again for Sheets this season.

In four starts since coming back, Sheets is 3-1 with a superb 1.46 ERA. He's got 23 K's in 24 2/3 innings. He's walked only six and hasn't given up a home run. ALL four of his starts have finished below the total. His lone road start saw him toss six shutout innings. Two starts ago, he beat Hamels and these same Phillies, allowing just one run through six innings.

Worley has a respectable 3.63 ERA as a starter, averaging better than six innings per outing. Last time out, he allowed two unearned runs through seven innings, earning a 3-2 victory.

Worley has also pitched well in all three career starts vs. the Braves, one each of the las three seasons. He has a 2.65 ERA in those three games, allowing three, two and zero earned runs. Two of those three games finished below the total.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in the season series and 13-5-3 the last 21 meetings here at Philadelphia. The Braves have been a very profitable Under team when listed as small road favorites. With a fairly generous O/U number of 8.5, I expect that to continue to be the case for another day. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. After a disastrous road trip, the Indians should be very happy to be back home. While they lost a heart-breaker at Detroit yesterday, I feel that tonight's matchup will prove to be just what the doctor ordered.

The Twins just swept the Indians at Minnesota from 7/27 to 7/29, the start of Cleveland's current slide. That should provide the Indians with some added motivation - not that they should need any!

During the recent series at Minnesota, the Indians got a look at Scott Diamond. (He beat them 11-0!) While Diamond was admittedly very good in that game, the Indians will now be seeing him for the third time since June and the second time in less than two weeks. On the other hand, McAllister will be making his first start vs. Minnesota - which could easily work to his advantage.

Diamond's road ERA (3.63) is solid but isn't nearly as good as his home ERA. Also, his 1.411 WHIP on the road is fairly high. The Twins are 3-4 when he starts away from Minnesota.

On the other hand, McCallister is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in seven home starts. The Indians are 5-2 (+3) in his home starts. He's got 40Ks in 43.7 innings here, walking only 11.

In his last home start, McCallister led the Indians to a win over Verlander and the Tigers, their last victory. I expect him to lead his team to another badly needed win here. *10

I'm playing on Milwaukee and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. These same two pitchers faced each other back in the spring. The line for that game was 7.5. True, it finished above the number (7-3 final) but the part that I want to focus on is that the line was 7.5 and that tonight's line is 8.5. That's a full run difference and I feel its providing us with very fair value.

Lohse struggled last time out. However, that was at Coors Field - so we'll cut him a little slack. He's still haveing an outstanding season. Indeed, he's 11-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.124 WHIP. Thirteen of his 22 starts (59%) have fallen below the total.

Lohse has been at his best at home. In 10 home starts, he's 5-1 with a stellar 2.61 ERA and 1.101 WHIP. He's averaging 6.9 innings per start here and has only given up five home run in 69 home innings pitched. His last start here was a 3-2 final - he allowed two runs in seven innings. His previous start here was a 4-1 final - he allowed one run in seven innings.

Estrada doesn't have nearly the record that Lohse does, as he's 0-4 with a mediocre 4.34 ERA on the season. A closer look shows that there are some positives in there though. He's got a very solid 1.124 WHIP. Perhaps even more impressive, in 65.7 innings as a starter, he's got 71 K's to just 11 walks. That's a terrific K/W ratio - far better than your "typical" 0-4 pitcher. Last time out, he allowed three runs (only two were earned) in seven innings, striking out six and walking one.

With yesterday's game finishing below the total, the UNDER is now 17-6-3 when the Brewers have played here the past few seasons. I believe Estrada is better than he was back in the spring - while the Brewer bats are arguably worse. I'm expecting a relatively well pitched affair and I'll grab the extra run they're offering. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Yesterday, I noted that I felt both Roy Halladay and the Phillies were currently a bit under-valued. I stated not to write off Halladay and that I expected him to perform well. Halladay came through with seven shutout innings, allowing a mere three hits. Philadelphia won 3-0 and the 2-time Cy Young Award Winner won his first game since May. This afternoon, it's Cliff Lee's turn and I feel much the same way about him that I do about Halladay.

I successfully played on the Phillies in Lee's last start. All he did was outpitch Straburg en route to an 8-0 win at Washington. Lee tossed seven shutout innings in that game, striking out seven and walking only one. I feel that was just what the doctor ordered for him and I expect him to build off that victory with another strong effort today. He's 3-1 with a solid 3.21 ERA and a commanding 0.857 WHIP against the Diamondbacks, striking out 30 his last three games against them.

Lee is backed by a Philadelphia bullpen which quietly has an N.L. best 1.22 ERA since July 22.

Note that Arizona is only 7-13 (-5.5) the last 20 times it was shutout in the previous game.

Cahill can also be tough. He didn't fare well in his lone start against the Phillies this season though, giving up four runs in 5 1/3 innings and losing 7-2.

I don't expect Lee to need much support today. The Phillies have won 10 of their last 12 home games against Arizona and I look for them to continue that success today. *9

I'm playing on Washington and Miami to finish UNDER the total. I lost with these teams to finish below the number yesterday (bad call!) after winning with Washington (in Game 1) the previous day. I feel I was just a day early with my "under" pick though and look for that low-scoring pitcher's duel to show up, as it did in the series opener.



Strasburg has OWNED the Marlins. In his last three starts against them, he has allowed ZERO runs, striking out 23 while giving up just 11 hits. All three finished below the total. In six career starts against the Marlins, he's got a 1.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, five of those games staying below the total.



Nolasco isn't the same class as Strasburg but he has pitched fairly well in this series. He faced Strasburg at Miami a few weeks ago and the final score was 4-0. That brought the UNDER go 10-5 in his 15 career starts against the Nationals. He allowed just three hits in 5 2/3 innings the last time that he pitched here at Washington.



The Nats have seen the UNDER go 12-5 the last 17 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -200 to -225 range, including a 6-1 UNDER mark their last seven in that role. I expect those stats to improve here. *10 best bet

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. With Arizona being the hotter team and arguably with more to play for, some may disagree. However, I feel that both Roy Halladay the player and the Phillies the team are a little under-valued right now. The Phillies are still loaded and there's still a lot of baseball left to play. Trure, they've been dumping some players and know their Wild Card chances are bleak - but they're still not ready to roll over.



Same goes for Halladay. Big time. This guy has been one of the best pitchers in the game for a lot of years. He's got a lot of pride and is a fierce competitor. He took the loss last time out but still delivered a quality start. The seven K's (vs. only one walk) in six innings shows that he's still able to dominate hitters.



Halladay is 3-1 with an excellent 2.73 ERA and an outstanding 0.977 WHIP for his career against the Diamondbacks. He tossed complete games each of the last two times that he faced them, striking out a whopping 23 while walking only one.



On the other hand, Saunders is 1-2 (team is 1-3) with an ugly 5.26 ERA in four starts vs. the Phillies. The last time that he faced them he lost by a score of 9-2. His previous two starts vs. Philadelphia resulted in a pair of losses. a combined losing score of 11-6.



Enough's enough. Halladay and the Phils get back on track. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Washington and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday afternoon's game produced double-digits in runs. The night-cap was lower-scoring thoug and I expect another well-pitched affair here.



Zimmerman is having an outstanding season and he's seemingly only getting stronger. For the season, he's got a 2.28 ERA and 1.065 WHIP. In his last three starts, he's got a remarkable 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP, striking out 16 while walking only one. In his last home start, he tossed six shutout innings.



Zimmerman also threw six shutout innings in his most recent start vs. the Marlins, a 5-1 win on 7/13.



Admittedly, Buehrle wasn't at his best last start. However, the veteran still has a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.215 WHIP on the season. Six of his 10 road starts have fallen below the total.



Buehrle tossed a gem in his lone start vs. the Nationals. In that 7/12/2012 game, he allowed one run through seven innings, earning a 2-1 victory.



Prior to yesterday's double-header, each of Miami's 2012 visits to Washington had fallen below the total. I expect that to be the case again here. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on NY and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. After swinging the bats fairly well on the road trip, the Padres return to pitcher-friendly Petco, where they average only 3.3 runs and hit just .228. I expect a low-scoring affair.
Dickey was dominant last time out, displaying the type of form we saw earlier in the season. In seven innings he allowed just one run - and it was unearned. He had eight K's and gave up only four hits. The Mets won 5-1, Dickey's second straight "under."
Speaking of dominant starts, Dickey's lone start against the Padres this season resulted in a 2-0 victory. Dickey allowed a mere three hits through 7 1/3 shutout innings. He had 10 K's and walked only one.
For the season, Dickey is 14-2 with a 2.73 ERA in 21 starts, averaging nearly seven innings (6.9) per start.
Richard doesn't have great numbers like Dickey. He's been much better at home though and he was fairly solid (2 runs) last time out. He's got a 3.28 ERA against the Mets, allowing one earned run in two of his last three starts against them.
While they've been a profitable 'over' team overall, the Padres have seen the UNDER go 16-10 as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. I expect those stats to improve tonight. *9

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. The Reds have now seen four straight games finish above the total. Switching to divisional action and facing a Pittsburgh team which has seen the UNDER go 9-4 its last 13, I expect the Reds' 'over' streak to come to an end here.

Note that Cincinnati has seen the UNDER go 23-15-3 in divisional play, those games averaging 7.5 runs.

Latos is off a gem last time out. He allowed just four hits and two runs through eight complete innings, striking out eight. Latos should be happy to see the Pirates. He's 3-0 with a superb 2.16 ERA in four starts against them. This season's lone start against Pittsburgh resulted in a 5-0 shutout. Latos had 11 K's in six innings, giving up just two hits.

Rodriguez has a respectable 3.82 ERA and 1.295 WHIP on the season. He'll be anxious to help his new team in a big game. While he did have some control issues against his former team last time out, fairly rare for him, he's still off back to back quality starts.

The Pittsburgh relievers had the day off yesterday. They've got a combined 2.81 ERA and 1.244 WHIP on the season. The Reds' relievers have been even better. They've got a combined 2.57 ERA and a 2.28 mark (1.078 WHIP) here at home. I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected. *10

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Red Sox are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I feel that the steep price is justified.

Doubront gets the call and he figures to be full of confidence after his last start. Matched up against Kuroda and the Yankees, at New York, he allowed only one run and just four hits, through 6 1/3 innings. He also had eight K's. A pretty impressive bounce-back after getting roughed up at Texas in his previous start. He didn't factor in the decision at NY but the Sox won 3-2.

In his most recent home start, Doubront also allowed just one run on four hits, through six innings. He got the "W" and the Red Sox beat Chicago by a score of 10-1. His previous home start resulted in a 9-5 win, as he again delivered a quality start against the Yankees. Boston is now a highly profitable 14-6 (_+7.4) when Doubront has taken the mound.

On the other hand, despite winning his last start, the Twins are 1-4 (-3.3) when Duensing has pitched. In two road starts, Duensing is 0-2 with an awful 7.37 ERA.

Despite this season's overall problems, the Sox remain a lucrative 22-13 (+6.6) against southpaw starters. They average 5.5 runs per game and hit .279 at home. The Twins average 3.8 runs per game and hit .235 on the road.

The Sox are 11-4 (+5.3) their last 15 against the Twins overall, going 5-1 (+3.4) here at Boston. Going back further finds them at 10-2 the last 12 meetings here. All things considered, the price isn't so bad afterall. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Cleveland and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. These teams have seen the UNDER go 6-2-1 against each other this season. I expect tonight's game to also be relatively low-scoring.

Sanchez's A.L. debut didn't go as planned. He'll be hungry to win over the home fans with a better effort here. Facing a Cleveland team which has dropped five straight (scoring 0, 5, 1, 3 and 2) should help.

Sanchez faced the Indians back in May - his only career start against them - and allowed just two runs through seven innings, good for a 2.57 ERA. That resulted in a hard-luck 2-0 loss.

Admittedly, Masterson's numbers aren't too impressive. He did pitch very well in his only start against the Tigers this season. In fact, he beat Verlander, allowing one run through seven innings and earning a 2-1 victory.

The Indians have seen the UNDER go 7-4-1 their last dozen games. During that stretch, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 7-3-2. More of the same here. *10

I'm playing on Atlanta and Miami to finish UNDER the total. The last two games in this series have both fallen below the total. That brings the UNDER to 15-6-2 the past few seasons, when the Braves have hosted the Marlins. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

Minor gets the call and he's really come into his own of late. Indeed, he's got an outstanding 1.71 ERA and 0.714 WHIP his last three starts. During that stretch, he's got 20 K's with only two walks. Last time out, he limited the Phillies to a single run, on just four hit, through eight complete innings. He recorded nine K's and didn't walk a single batter. In other words, he dominated.

Not surprisingly, each of Minor's last two starts have fallen below the total - they each finished with just three combined runs. Today, he'll be facing a Miami lineup which has averaged only 3.5 runs per game on the road, hitting just .232 in those games.

In two starts vs. Miami this season, Minor has allowed only three runs in 12 innings.

While he hasn't been quite as dominant as Minor, Eovaldi has also been solid of late. He's got a 3.07 ERA his last three starts.

Eovaldi hasn't received much run support this season and with Minor's current form, that's likely to be the case again today. That's led to the UNDER going a lucrative 9-2 in his 11 starts. Note that in six road starts, Eovaldi hasn't allowed a single home run.

Eovaldi has only started against the Braves once and that came last season. That game also happened to come against Minor. The final score was 2-1, Eovaldi allowed just three hits through six innings.

With yesterday's result, the UNDER is now 12-2-2 the last 16 times that the Marlins faced a team with a winning record. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. After winning with them the previous day, I lost with the Giants yesterday. Matt Cain gave up two runs but failed to get any run support. I expect the Giants' bats to come alive this afternoon though.

Young gets the call for the visitors and he really struggled last time out. In fact, he lasted only four innings, giving up six runs. The Mets are now a money-burning 2-8 (-5.3) when he takes the mound.

In six road starts, Young is 2-3 with an ugly 5.70 ERA and 1.633 WHIP. He's only averaged five innings per road start.

That means we may see some of a NY bullpen which has a combined 5.45 ERA and 1.598 WHIP on the road.

While he doesn't have "dominant" numbers, Zito's stats are solid. He's 8-7 with a 3.89 ERA on the season. At home, his ERA dips to 3.41. Over his last three starts, that ERA comes down to 3.26. His WHIP during that 3-game stretch is an excellent 0.931. He's got 15 K's to just three walks over that time.

Zito is backed by a SF bullpen which has a combined 2.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home.

While Zito got a no-decision in this season's lone start against NY, the Giants still won by a score of 4-3. In his last home start against the Mets, Zito tossed eight shutout innings, striking out 10, en route to a 1-0 victory.

The Giants are 11-2 (+8.2) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Knowing they head out on a lengthy road trip after this, I expect them to step up and close out the homestand with an important win. *10

I'm playing on Cincinnati and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. I expect this high-scoring series to conclude with a pitcher's duel on Thursday afternoon.

Cueto has enjoyed a fantastic season and he's been a consistent cash cow for "under" bettors. He's 13-5 with a 2.39 ERA on the season. The UNDER is 15-5-1 when he takes the mound.

Although he won, Cueto wasn't his very best last time out. That was at Coors Field in Colorado though, so we can cut him a little slack. Now he's back home, where he's been downright dominant. In nine home starts, Cueto is 7-1 with a spectacular 1.94 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. In more than six innings pitched here, he's only allowed two home runs. Seven of his nine home starts have fallen below the total, most recently a 2-1 win over the Brewers on 7/22.

Cueto didn't face the Padres last season but beat them 4-2 in this season's lone start against them.

Ohlendorf has also pitched very well of late. He's off three consecutive quality starts, compiling a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. While he hasn't started against the Reds since 2010, each of his last three starts against them produced four or fewer runs.

The Reds have seen the UNDER go 21-14-1 in their "day" games this season and I expect those stats to get even better this afternoon. *10 best bet

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants got back on track yesterday. Lincecum looked like "The Freak" of old and they snapped their 5-game losing streak. With Matt Cain on the mound - and possibly newly acquired Hunter Pence in the lineup - I expect the Giants to earn another important victory tonight.

Cain was the started of the NL All Star team for good reason. He's got a dominating 2.11 ERA in his last 13 home starts, dating back to last year. This season, he's 5-2 (SF is 7-3) in 10 home starts with a 2.13 ERA and an extremely impressive 0.803 WHIP. He averages better than 7 1/2 innings per start here, too. In 76 innings here, he's recorded 71 Ks while walking only eight.

Like Lincecum, Cain should be happy to see the Mets. Indeed, he's 3-0 with a remarkable 0.95 ERA in his last three home starts vs. NY.

Cain is catching NY at the right time, too. The Mets have now lost 15 of 19. They've also dropped seven of their last 10, here at SF.

The Mets are 0-4 in Niese's last four starts - Niese is 0-2 with an ugly 5.67 ERA in those games. He allowed a whopping eight runs in his last start.

While the price may seem a bit steep, the Giants have long been outstanding as home favorites of this size. They've also dominated southpaw starters in recent seasons. They're 75-48 (+23.8) against left-handers the past few seasons, including 21-10 (+12.9) this year. With Cain "doing his thing," I expect the Giants to improve on those stats in convincing fashion this evening. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Cincinnati and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. I waited in releasing this play, as I expected the line to go from 8.5 to 9. Now that it has done so, I'm ready to move. This has been a high-scoring thus far; each of the first two games have produced double-digits in runs. I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening. Arroyo tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings in his most recent start, a 3-0 victory at Colorado. That was pretty impressive, given that he'd previously been 0-2 with a 8.84 ERA in four starts at Coors Field. That gem marked the fifth time in his last six that Arroyo delivered a quality start. ALL six of those games produced eight or fewer combined runs. One of those quality starts came against these same Padres. That 7/6 outing saw Arroyo come through with a complete-game 3-hit shutout, earning a 6-0 victory. He struck out eight Padres in that game, walking only one. Wells is also off a quality outing. He allowed two runs on five hits, over six innings. He's now got a fairly respectable 3.82 ERA since being asked to step into the injury-plagued Padres starting rotation. One of those starts came against the Reds; Wells allowed three runs through six innings. It should be noted that Wells has been at his best on the road. He's 2-1 with a stellar 2.00 ERA in three road starts. The last two games notwithstanding, the Reds have been a very profitable "under" team all season. I expect things to return to "normal" and for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Red Sox grabbed yesterday's opener. With their ace on the mound, I expect the Tigers to return the favor on Tuesday.

Neither of today's starters pitched particularly well last time out. For Beckett, that's been fairly normal. For Verlander, sub-par starts are few and far between - and they very rarely happen twice in a row.

For the season, Verlander is still 11-6 with a stellar 2.60 ERA and 0.951 WHIP. He averages 7.4 innings per start and has 146 K's on the season.

On the other hand, Beckett is just 5-9 with a 4.57 ERA. He averages 6.4 innings and has 82 K's. The Red Sox are a money-burning 6-11 (-7.6) when he takes the mound, including 3-6 (-5.3) here at Fenway.

While Verlander still has a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP his last three starts, Beckett has a poor 5.21 ERA and 1.632 WHIP his last three.

Beckett has made two starts vs. Detroit this season and he's lost both. In 11 2/3 innings, he's given up 11 runs on 17 hits, losing by a combined score of 17-3.

While they've struggled over the last week, the Tigers have still enjoyed a strong month of July. I expect them to bounce back and close it out with a much-needed victory. *9

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. I successfully played against the A's yesterday, as the O's handed them a rare loss. While they've had an excellent month, matched up against one of this year's top pitchers, I expect another loss today.

While the A's stumbled yesterday, the Rays are off back-to-back shutout victories. They've pulled within two games of the final wildcard spot and have their ace on the mound today.

Price gets the call for the Rays and he's been downright dominant. He's won three starts in a row and has wins in each of his last six decisions. For the season, he's 14-4 with a superb 2.57 ERA. He's averaging 6 2/3 innings per start and has an impressive 130 Ks in 133 innings. Over his last three starts, he's got a commanding 1.27 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. The Rays have won his last two starts by a combined score of 16-1.

Price has made one start against the A's this season. He won that 5/4 outing by a score of 7-2. Price went eight complete innings and allowed only one run on three hits. He also had 12 K's against only a single walk.

In fairness, Griffin has also pitched very well. That said, Price has been doing it all season long while Griffin's sample size is considerably smaller.

True, the A's are at home. However, they had to travel from Baltimore yesterday. Meanwhile, the Rays were already here in California, as they were taking on the Angels, at Anaheim.

While the A's are now 18-19 against southpaw starters, the Rays are 40-30 vs. right -handers. Tampa averages 4.3 runs per game on the road, Oakland averages 3.7 at home.

The Rays have been very good as small to medium sized road favorites the past few seasons. With Price doing his thing, I expect them to continue rolling for at least another day. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Red Sox grabbed yesterday's game. The Yankees have still dominated the season series though. With an edge on the mound, I expect them to resume that domination this evening.

While he did struggle at Fenway a few weeks ago, Kuroda has been outstanding of late. Last time out, he allowed just three hits and one run, through seven complete innings. The Yankees won 4-1. In his previous start, which was his most recent here at New York, he allowed 0 runs through seven shutout innings. Over that 2-game stretch, he had 14 K's vs. just a single walk, allowing 0 home runs. That translates to a 0.64 ERA and a 0.571 WHIP.

For the season, through 11 home starts, Kuroda is 7-3 (NY is 8-3) with an excellent 2.68 ERA and 1.027 WHIP.

Unlike Kuroda, Doubront got roughed up in his last start. In just five innings, he allowed six runs, giving up eight hits and walking three.

While he has been better on the road than at home, Doubront's road ERA (3.83) is still more than a full run higher than Kuroda's home ERA. Note that his road WHIP (1.394) is also much higher than Kuroda's WHIP at home. Additionally, while Kuroda averages 6.7 innings per home start, Doubront averages 5.7 per road start.

The Yankees may have struggled against Lester yesterday. However, they've still dominated southpaw starters. Behind another strong game from Kuroda, I expect them to close out the series with another victory. *9 (Main Event)

I'm playing on New York and Boston to finish UNDER the total. This has been a high-scoring series with each of the first two games finishing above the number. I expect a well-pitched affair in this evening's finale though.



This series' results notwithstanding, the Yankees have been a profitable "under" team all season, particularly here at New York. Today's starting pitcher has played a big role in that "under" success.



Kuroda gets the call and he's been a cash cow for "under" bettors all season long. Indeed, 14 of his 20 starts have stayed beneath the number, including seven of 11 here at New York.



In addition to being a profitable "under" pitcher, Kuroda has also been outstanding of late. Last time out, he allowed just three hits and one run, through seven complete innings. The Yankees won 4-1. In his previous start, which was his most recent here at New York, he allowed 0 runs through seven shutout innings. Over that 2-game stretch, he had 14 K's vs. just a single walk, allowing 0 home runs. That translates to a 0.64 ERA and a 0.571 WHIP.



While Kuroda has been better at home, Doubront has been better on the road. He's 5-2 with a respectable 3.83 ERA in nine road starts, five of which have fallen below the total.



We're getting a higher O/U line (currently 10, as I write this) than we were yesterday. That's noteworthy as we find the UNDER at a lucrative 28-11-5 the past few seasons, when the Yankees have played a home game with an O/U line of either 10 or 10.5. That includes a 10-2 mark this season. I expect those stats to improve Sunday night. *10

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The A's won again yesterday and are in position to sweep the series. That was the case in their last series (vs. Toronto) though too and they failed to complete the sweep, losing the finale. On the other hand, the Orioles managed to avoid getting swept in their last series (vs. Tampa) by winning the final game. I expect that to be the case again this afternoon.

Admittedly, Blackley has pitched very well. The A's are still below .500 (2-3) when he starts on the road though and I won't be surprised if he doesn't get much run support here. This is the final game of a road trip for the A's. They fly back to the West Coast after this game. They've already had a highly successful road trip and I feel they may experience a bit of a letdown here.

Chen has also been pitching well. The O's are 12-8 (+5.9) when he takes the mound. In 10 home starts, he's got a very solid 3.39 ERA and 1.162 WHIP, averaging 6.4 innings per start.

While Chen did lose his last start, he still pitched well, allowing three runs. It was his third straight quality start - he has a 3.20 ERA and a very stingy .915 WHIP during that stretch.

After last game, Chen was quoted as saying: "I felt like I made one mistake (a two-run homer to Brooks Conrad) and that's why I lost tonight. I feel strong and I kept fighting, I never gave up."

Given the way he pitched in his lone previous start vs. Oakland, Chen should have plenty of confidence. He beat the A's here by a score of 10-1 in the spring, allowing a single run through seven complete innings.

The early start time figures to work to Baltimore's advantage. Not only are the A's a West-Coast based club but the O's are an excellent 20-11 (+8.3) when playing during the afternoon. I expect them to step up and improve on those stats this afternoon. *9

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Marlins got back on track with a win yesterday. With Josh Johnson making perhaps his last start ever with the team, I expect them to build off that victory and follow it up with another here.


I won with the Marlins the last time that Johnson started for them. At the time, I mentioned the following: "...By comparison, in two more starts and an extra 19+ innings, Johnson has only allowed four home runs here at Miami. He's got a respectable 3.63 ERA in those 11 games. While Johnson has a stellar 2.39 ERA in 15 starts vs. Atlanta, Minor has a really poor 6.48 ERA (1.719 WHIP!) in five starts vs. the Marlins. Note that Johnson's last six starts against the Braves have seen him record a superb 1.42 ERA. Johnson has indeed lost back-to-back games and hasn't pitched well in July. He hasn't lost three straight decisions for more than five years though - and I look for him to bounce-back with a big effort tonight ..."

Johnson did indeed bounce back with a big effort. In fact, he tossed six shutout innings, allowing only a single hit. He also had an impressive 9 K's against 0 walks.

He now has 20 K's and 2 walks his last three starts. For the season, he's now got 73 K's against only four walks at home, allowing only four home runs in 75 home innings. His home ERA is now down to 3.35.

Johnson's last home start vs. San Diego came back in 2010. In that game, he allowed two runs through eight complete innings, striking out nine while walking one.

While he didn't need much help in his last start, Johnson should get some support here. Richard got rocked for seven runs in five innings in his last start. He's 3-7 (SD is 3-9) in 12 road starts, compiling a 4.52 ERA.

For all this season's struggles, the Marlins are still a solid 17-14 against southpaw starters. They're now 74-52 (+21.4) against left-handers the past few seasons. With Johnson building off his last start, I expect the Marlins to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. *9

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Jays have taken each of the first two games in this series. I expect the Tigers to return the favor Sunday afternoon.

Fister gets the call. After a strong start to the season, Fister struggled in June. He's really turned it on again in his last few July starts though. In his last three starts, Fister has allowed only five runs on just 14 hits, through 22 innings. During that stretch, Fister has recorded 22 K's to just three walks. That translates to a superb 2.05 ERA to go along with an outstanding 0.773 WHIP.

Cecil, on the other hand, is 0-2 with a poor 6.06 ERA his last three starts.

Even with yesterday's setback, the Tigers are still 103-71 in day games the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also an impressive and lucrative 50-20 (+30.2) when playing on a Sunday, including 13-3 (+9.4) this season. I expect them to improve on those stats here, as they step up and avoid the sweep. *9

I'm playing on Toronto and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair this afternoon.



Anibal Sanchez gets the call for the Tigers, his first start since coming over from Miami. Sanchez, who had a 2.88 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 10 home starts with the Marlins, should be very happy to join a "better" team. He should also be highly motivated to deliver a strong performance in his debut for his new team.



Sanchez was pitching well before the move. He's got a 2.70 ERA his last three starts, striking out an impressive 18 while walking only two. Note that the UNDER was a profitable 6-3-1 in Sanchez's 10 home starts, prior to switching leagues.



Admittedly, Alvarez hasn't been as sharp as Sanchez lately. He's still capable though. He's alternated between good and bad starts recently; off a sub-par outing, if that pattern continues, he should be better today. Starting against the Tigers for the first time should work to his advantage.



The Tigers have seen the UNDER go a profitable 29-13-2 when playing during the afternoon. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. *10

I'm playing on Seattle and KC to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's opener finished with only five runs, staying below the total. That one easily could have been higher-scoring though and I expect that tonight's game will be. With the total dropping from 7.5 down to 7, I feel we're getting excellent value.

Guthrie goes for the visitors and he's been terrible. For the season, he's 3-9 with an ugly 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. The OVER is 10-5-1 when he's taken the mound. Despite only averaging 5.2 innings per start, he's giving up more than a HR per game, 20 in his 16 starts.

Guthrie is 0-2 with a 9.48 ERA and 1.868 WHIP his last three starts. All finished above the total, each producing a minimum of 12 combined runs.

Beaven pitched well last time out. at Tampa However, he's still got a 6.75 ERA his last three starts and a 5.76 ERA in his five home starts. Three have finished above the total.

Each of Beaven's starts against the Royals have finished above the total. Both produced double-digits in runs. He's got a 5.84 ERA in those games.

Meanwhile, Guthrie is just 2-6 in 10 starts vs. Seattle. Last time he faced the M's, he allowed six runs in six innings, serving up three home runs. *9

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. I won with the Angels in Haren's last start. That was his first game back from the DL and it also came against a powerful Texas lineup. Yet, Haren was more than up for the task. Now he's got a game under his belt and he'll be facing a weaker lineup than he did last Sunday. I expect another strong performance.

After the win over Texas, Haren commented: "Going to sleep last night and all this morning, I definitely had a lot of butterflies. It's been a while, and I just wanted to go out there and help the team."

While the Angels are hoping to have Pujols back, they've got plenty of pop in their bats, even without him. It helps when Mike Trout is hitting .413 in July with eight home runs to go along with nine stolen bases.

The Rays, on the other hand, are having trouble scoring runs. They did score 10 a couple of days ago. However, that was followed up with them scoring just two yesterday. They've now scored three or less in four of their last five, managing only one run in two of those games.

Cobb is 4-7 with a 5.05 ERA on the season and he's gone a combined 5 1-3 innings over his last two starts, losing both. He's got a 5.54 ERA on the road and a 2.03 WHIP his last three starts.

While he was beaten by Cobb once last season, Haren has dominated the Rays over his career. He's 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts against them. His teams are 8-3 (+4.1) in those games.

Playing with 'revenge' from an earlier sweep at Tampa, I expect the Angels to keep rolling here. *9 Blue Marlin

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Nationals easily took yesterday's opener. That extended their winning streak while also extending the Brewers' skid. I expect a much different result here.

Both pitchers have been sharp lately. However, Milwaukee's starter has arguably been stronger.

Detwiler has an impressive 1.89 ERA his last three starts. Fiers' 1.33 ERA over his last three starts is even better though. During that stretch, Detwiler had a 1.368 WHIP while Fiers had a superior 1.033 mark. Detwiler averaged 6.3 innings over those three starts while Fiers averaged 6.8.

Going back further finds that Fiers has an excellent 1.99 ERA in nine starts. He's allowed a mere two home runs in those games, recording 56 K's to just 13 walks. Detwiler has a 3.01 ERA overall including a 3.55 mark on the road, where he is 1-2.

Detwiler lost his lone start against Milwaukee. He gave up five (unearned) runs in just 3 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Fiers will be making his first start against the Nats, which often works to a pitcher's advantage.

Prior to yesterday's blowout loss, the Brewers had dominated the Nats here at Milwaukee. With Fiers continuing his strong pitching, I expect them to get back on track here. *10 Personal Fav

I'm playing HOUSTON on the RUN-LINE. (+1.5 runs.) Admittedly, the Astros have been pretty bad for quite some time. They dropped yesterday's opener, extending their lengthy losing skid. All those losses have started to work in our favor as the Astros' lines are starting to get juicer and juicier. In today's case, we're able to get them on the run-line (+1.5 runs) at roughly a pick'em price. Given the matchup, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.

The pitching matchup features Karstens taking on Lyles. Overall, Karstens has been better. He's also been stronger in his last few starts. However, a closer look reveals that Lyles has actually been much better at home than Karstens has on the road.

Karstens has been outstanding at Pittsburgh, including 15 shutout innings in his last two home starts. However, in five road starts, he's just 1-2 with a terrible 6.12 ERA and a high 1.44 WHIP. The Pirates are 2-3 when he starts on the road and Karstens only averages five innings per road start. It should be noted that THREE of Karsten's five road starts (60%) were decided by a single run.

Going back further finds the Pirates at just 6-11 in Karsten's last 17 road starts and that NINE of those 17 were decided by a single run.

Lyles has really had problems on the road. That hasn't been the case here at Houston though. He's averaging 6.5 innings per home start and has a respectable 3.62 ERA and 1.206 WHIP in five starts here overall. The Astros have won four of his last seven starts here and they'd be 5-2 in those games, if getting +1.5 runs each time.

Lyles' lone home start vs. Pittsburgh resulted in a 1-run loss.

The Pirates are very tough at Pittsburgh. However, they're still below .500 on the road and they're still only 6-13 here at Houston, since the start of the 2010 season. They'd be just 4-15 in those games, if laying -1.5 runs each time.

I'm grabbing the +1.5 runs with what should be a Houston squad desperate to snap its losing streak. *10

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The A's saw their winning streak snapped yesterday. Meanwhile, the Orioles snapped their losing streak. I expect the O's to build momentum from that win while the A's drop their second straight.

The O's may have struggled recently. However, they're still fighting for a Wildcard spot and this is a very big series for them.

Chris Davis got back on track for Baltimore yesterday, as he had a HR and a four RBIs. He was quoted saying:

"It meant a lot especially with the quick turnaround from last night. Sometimes you're going to be hot, sometimes you're not, but hopefully we'll start stringing hits together and put some runs up on the board."

While Oakland has been very hot lately, it can often be tough for a team to bounce back from its first loss, after an extended winning streak.

Parker has certainly had an impressive rookie season and he's coming off an excellent start. That said, his ERA is above four on the road. Britton is also off an impressive outing, as he tossed six shutout innings, while giving up only four hits.

The A's are below .500 against southpaw starters, hitting .228 against them. The O's are 38-36 (+6.8) against right-handers. The A's are 7-9 (-1.8) on Fridays. The O's are 10-6 (+5.8) when playing on a Friday.

Britton lost at Oakland last year but dominated the A's in his lone home start, allowing four hits and one run through 6 1/3 innings. I expect him to pitch well once again and for the O's to make it b2b victories. *9

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. There's no denying that the Nationals are the hotter team. They've won five straight. Milwaukee, on the other hand, just went 0-6 on its road trip. The Brewers are still 14-7 their last 21 here at Milwaukee though and they've dominated the Nationals here. I expect them to finally stop the bleeding today.

While the Brewers' playoff chances sure aren't looking too good at the moment, this team is still the defending division champion and they aren't about to just pack it in before July is even finished.

While the Nats do have an impressive road record overall, they haven't fared well when Jackson has pitched away from Washington. In fact, they're just 2-8 (-6.3) in his 10 road starts. Jackson has a 4.07 ERA in those games. Even with a strong effort last time out (he still lost) Jackson has a 4.58 ERA his last three starts. He's got 13 Ks against six walks in those games.

Gallardo has been better than that recently. He's got a stellar 2.89 ERA his last three starts, striking out an impressive 21 while walking only three. In 10 home starts, Gallardo is 4-2 with a solid 3.14 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. He's got 71 Ks in 64 innings here, walking only 22.

Gallardo had this to say: "We just have to turn things around to stay close, and then have that good stretch and make a run for it."

Gallardo dominated the Nats the last time that he faced them, an 11-3 win here last season. He allowed one run in seven innings, striking out nine and walking one. On the other hand, Jackson lasted only two innings his last start here, allowing four runs.

The home team has won nine straight in this series and the Brewers are 8-0 the last eight meetings here at Miller Park. I expect them to bounce back and continue that homefield dominance for another day here. *10 Personal Fav

I'm playing on TORONTO. I lost with the Jays yesterday; they were embarrassed by a score of 16-0. Obviously that wasn't a very good effort - by them or by me. I expect them to bounce back this afternoon though and am willing to give them another shot.

While the A's have certainly been on fire, this is a very early start for the West-Coast based team.

Both starters were excellent last time out. Millone shut out the Yankees for seven innings. Meanwhile, Laffey matched that, as he blanked the Red Sox through seven innings.

Millone's start came at pitcher-friendly Oakland though and he hasn't been nearly as tough on the road. In fact, he's 4-5 with an ugly 5.69 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 11 road starts.

Laffey, who has a 2.70 ERA in this season's five starts, faced the A's back in 2008. He allowed only a single unearned run through seven innings, giving up just five hits. He had six K's against only one walk and earned the "W" in a 4-2 Jays victory. He's also faced them five times as a reliever, compiling a stellar 1.84 ERA in 14 2/3 innings.

While the Jays may be banged-up, they've still got a lot of pride. Behind another solid effort from Laffey, I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep. *10

I'm playing on TORONTO. With the A's on absolute fire, there are plenty of "Money Ball" comparisons going around these days. All good things must come to an end though and I look for Oakland's win streak to get snapped today.



Romero got roughed up a bit last time out - that was at New York though, so we can cut him a little slack. In his last start at Toronto, Romero allowed one run through six complete innings. While that resulted in ah hard-luck 1-0 loss, the Jays are still a solid 6-3 (+1.3) when Romero takes the mound here at Toronto. In fact, going back a bit further finds them at a dominating 13-3 his last 16 home starts.



Speaking of dominating, in six starts against the A's, Romero is 4-0 with a commanding 1.70 ERA and 1.039 WHIP.



Griffin has certainly been solid for the A's. However, his stats are still based on a relatively small sample size - as he's only made five starts, only two on the road. In his last road start, he gave up two home runs at Minnesota. Now, he'll face a Toronto lineup which can be potent here in Canada, even without Bautista.



The Jays have still won three of four and they're still fighting hard to hang around in the Wild Card race. I expect Romero to continue his success against the A's and for the Jays to bounce back and even up the series. *10 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. I won a big play on the Mariners last night. With their ace on the mound and looking to avenge the Game 1 loss to Ichiro's Yankees, I felt it was a great spot for the M's. Neither the M's nor their fans wanted to get swept in this "emotional" series. The M's got their "token" win though and they won't have King Felix mowing down the Yanks this afternoon.



Iwakuma was fairly solid last time out. That was against a Tampa lineup which has been fairly punchless of late though. He's still got a 5.06 ERA in his three starts including a a 6.30 ERA (1.60 WHIP) in two starts here at Safeco. The M's are 1-2 (-0.8) in his starts.



On the other hand, Nova is 7-1 with a 3.30 ERA on the road. The Yankees are a lucrative 9-2 (+6.9) when he's taken the mound outside of New York. He pitched well last time out but didn't factor in the decision.



While the M's are 11-19 (-4.2) in day games, the Yanks are 19-10 (+5.8) when playing during the afternoon. The Yankees average 5.2 runs when playing during the afternoon. The M's average a mere 3.4 runs in their day games, hitting only .205.



The Yanks are still upset about getting swept at Oakland. They've been solid as road favorites in this range this year and in recent seasons and I look for them to take out their anger on the M's here. *9

I'm playing on Philadelphia and Milwaukee to finish UNDER the total. This has been a wild and high-scoring series with the Phillies earning another comeback win last night. I expect a much lower-scoring contest this afternoon though. Getting a higher O/U line to work with, I feel that's offering excellent value on the Under.

Estrada has been better than his record suggests. He allowed three runs through seven innings last time out - but got no run support and lost 3-1. He's got 22 K's with only 1 walk his last three starts - you almost never see a K/W ratio better than that. In 10 starts, he's got 61 K's against only seven walks - more than a strikeout per inning. That'll help get out of a lot of jams, aiding in stranding runners on base. Two of his three road starts have fallen below the total.

Worley has also been a little better than his record suggests - as he's got a solid 3.82 ERA. He pitched well in his lone start against Milwaukee but was outdueled by Gallardo and lost 3-2.

The Phillies bats have heated up of late. However, they're still averaging just 3.5 runs per "day" game, hitting only .240 in those games. The Brewers also hit .240 in their day games, averaging 4.2 runs.

With this early start, I look for the bats to be a bit "sleepy" and for the final combined score to prove lower-scoring than expected. *9

I'm playing on SEATTLE. You likely heard the "big news" out of Seattle yesterday. The Mariners traded longtime star Ichiro Suzuki to the Yankees. Then, the fan-favorite turned around and played against his old team - the very same day. The Yankees would go on to win by a score of 4-1, bouncing back after getting swept at Oakland. I feel that this will be a good spot for the M's to be the team that bounces back though.



The Ichiro news wasn't that big in the rest of country - but it was a huge deal in the Pacific Northwest. Ichiro ranks among the greatest Mariners of all-time (along with the likes of Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, A-Rod, Edgar Martinez and today's starter, Felix Hernandez) and he'll be missed. However, the fact is that he's seen better days. The M's are looking to re-build with youth and Suzuki has seen better days. (That doesn't mean that he won't have some success with NY, which could be a very good fit for him at the end of his career.)



Anyway, the reason I'm dwelling on the Ichiro stuff is that its created some added excitement at Safeco for this series - a real buzz in the stadium. I feel it will serve as a motivator for the home team. The M's already lost the opener and the last thing they want to do is have their old teammate's new team show them up in front of the home faithful two nights in a row.



While motivation is always an important factor - having an edge on the mound is arguably more important. Ichiro may have been the face of the team - but Felix Hernandez is the team's true star. With King Felix on the mound - the M's should also have an edge in this department.



Hernandez has been practically unhittable of late. The Seattle ace is 4-0 with a super 1.36 ERA his last seven starts. Last time out, he gave up one run over eight innings, en route to a 6-1 win. Hernandez is now 2-0 with a remarkable 0.73 ERA and 0.851 WHIP, averaging better than eight innings per outing.



Manager Eric Wedge said this of Felix's latest win: "He was strong again today, a lot of life at end of his pitches and he was down."



Facing a fellow Venezuelan (and former Mariner) along with facing Ichiro, Beltre etc - Hernandez should be highly motivated to keep up his stellar recent pitching.



He also should get some run support. Garcia, a friend of Felix's, has a 5.37 ERA on the season, alternating between being a starter and a reliever. In his eight starts, Garcia has a horrible 7.18 ERA and 1.761 WHIP. Garcia's 4.15 ERA over his last three starts is better - but not great - and it comes with a high 1.672 WHIP.



True, the Yankees have the better lineup. However, given the pitching edge and Hernandez's current forum - and with the whole team hungry to beat their former teammates, I feel getting the M's in the pick'em range is providing excellent value. *10

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Don't look now - but here come the Phillies. While some may have written this team off, the Phils have gotten healthy again. Off a thrilling comeback win, they've also got a ton of positive momentum on their side. I expect them to carry it into today's game.



Ryan Howard commented on last night's win: "It's huge. We have to build on that momentum. We need to take that energy and spread it over nine innings.''



Greinke gets the call for the Brewers. A former Cy Young award winner, Greinke is obviously very capable. However, he's also not usually as good on the road. In 12 road starts, he's got a 4.41 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. (At home, he's got a 2.56 ERA.)



Plus, Greinke is a person who has previously dealt with some nervous/paranoia/anxiety issues. He's currently the subject of trade rumors and this could potentially be his last start with Milwaukee. That kind of "uncertainty" likely doesn't sit too well with a guy known to get nervous about things beyond his control. It may have already been affecting him - as Greinke has really struggled of late. In four July outings, he's got a terrible 9.00 ERA!



Lee, on the other hand, is heating up. While he may only have one win, Lee has 10 quality starts this season. He's got an excellent 2.05 ER and 0.955 WHIP his last three starts - last time out he allowed only two hit and one run, through eight innings.



Lee noted: "Not once this year have I said anything about being frustrated. I can only control what I can control, and that's to make pitches, get as deep into the game as I can and try to give the team a chance to win.''



Just as last night's win was a big one for the Phillies, it was also a devastating loss for the Brewers - the kind that can be hard to bounce back from.



Lee hasn't gotten any support all season - but the Phils bats are heating up, having scored 16 runs the last three games. He's in better current form than Greinke and I look for him to get a rare W tonight. *10 NL Personal Fav

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Cubs grabbed yesterday's series opener. That snapped a 3-game skid for Chicago, while also snapping a 5-game winning streak for Pittsburgh. I expect things to return to "normal" today, as the Pirates get back on track and resume their winning ways here at home.



Admittedly, McDonald hasn't been at his best his last two starts. However, they both came on the road. Now, he returns home where he's MUCH more comfortable. In his last start here, McDonald allowed just one run on only four hits, through seven complete innings. He had 10 K's and 0 walks in that game, too.



Including that gem, for the season, McDonald is 5-1 with a superb 1.69 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's got 60 K's vs. only 19 walks here, allowing just three home runs.



Admittedly, Maholm has pitched well recently. However, his last two starts have both been at home. Now, he's on the road, where he hasn't been nearly as good. In eight road starts, Maholm is 2-4 (team is 2-6!) and he's got a terrible 6.30 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in those games.



McDonald is supported by a Pittsburgh bullpen which has a combined 2.15 ERA (1.08 WHIP) at home. Maholm is supported by a Chicago bullpen which has a combined 5.26 ERA (1.665 WHIP) on the road.



The Pirates are 25-15 (+14.8) off a loss including 5-1 (+5.4) off a shutout loss. They're also 15-10 (+6.4) against southpaw starters, including a win vs. Maholm back in the spring. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *9 (NL Central GOM)

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Braves come in with the better record. Admittedly, they've been playing better baseball than Miami recently. I feel that the Marlins are a (slight) favorite for good reason today though and I look for them to bounce back and snap their losing streak.

Minor has been better recently. However, he's still got an ugly 5.69 ERA. On the road that number climbs all the way to 6.66 to go along with a 1.58 WHIP and a 2-4 record. In nine road starts, Minor has allowed a whopping 15 home runs.

By comparison, in two more starts and an extra 19+ innings, Johnson has only allowed four home runs here at Miami. He's got a respectable 3.63 ERA in those 11 games.

While Johnson has a stellar 2.39 ERA in 15 starts vs. Atlanta, Minor has a really poor 6.48 ERA (1.719 WHIP!) in five starts vs. the Marlins. Note that Johnson's last six starts against the Braves have seen him record a superb 1.42 ERA.

Johnson has indeed lost back-to-back games and hasn't pitched well in July. He hasn't lost three straight decisions for more than five years though - and I look for him to bounce-back with a big effort tonight.

For all the Marlins struggles, they do still have a winning record against southpaw starters, who they tend to score a little better against. In fact, they're now a lucrative 73-52 (+20.4) the past few seasons against southpaws.

While the Braves have a solid record overall, they rarely start a new week very well. In fact, they 19-31 (-22.3) the last 50 times that they played on a Monday including an 0-11 mark their last 11. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 6-4 in their Monday games. With Johnson getting the better of Minor, I expect the Marlins to get the new week and new series started with another win. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Orioles have dominated the Indians in this series, beating me a couple of times in the process. I fully expect the Indians to bounce back and avoid the 4-game sweep this evening though.

Masterson wasn't very good at Tampa Bay last time out - although Cleveland still won that game. In his previous start, however, he tossed seven shutout innings. Now, he returns home, where he's typically much stronger.

In 11 home starts, Masterson has a very respectable 3.54 ERA and 1.263 WHIP. He's only allowed five home runs in those 11 games, while averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. He's got more than twice as many K's (65) as walks (30) here at home.

Note that Masterson is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA his last three starts against Baltimore. Masterson had an impressive 18 K's to just two walks in those games. The Indians won those games by a combined score of 22-8, each victory coming by at least four runs. In this season's lone starts against the O's, he allowed one earned run on five hits through seven complete innings. He had seven K's and didn't walk a batter.

While Masterson has been sharp at home, Hunter is just 1-3 with a terrible 6.81 ERA in seven road starts. In less than 40 road innings, he's allowed a whopping 11 home runs - nearly as many HRs allowed as K's (17) recorded.

While Hunter did pitch well last time out, he'd been 1-2 with an ugly 8.76 ERA in his previous seven big league starts.

The Indians haven't been swept at home all season. As manager Manny Acta noted: "...the sun is going to come up tomorrow. We still have over 60 games to go. Things can change in a heartbeat. Every day is a new day."

I expect Acta's crew to be ready to go, as they bounce back and return to the .500 level with a badly needed victory. *9 AL Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. This series is knotted 1-1. The Angels won the opener by a score of 6-1. The Rangers returned the favor with a 9-2 victory yesterday. Today's game will likely be closer - but I expect the Angels to be the team which finishes on top.

Haren has been on the disabled list and he wasn't pitching that well before he went on it. That will prevent many from wanting to back the Angels here. I still consider him an elite pitcher though and I expect him to pitch well tonight. Note that Haren was fairly sharp in a rehab start Monday. He knows the importance of this game and he'll be ready to bring his A-game.

There's no denying that Harrison has been tough. He does have a poor 5.09 ERA in six starts against the Angels though, splitting a pair of decisions this season.

While the Rangers do have a potent lineup, the Angels don't give anything away in that area - they can hit with the best of them.

The Angels lost vs. a right-hander yesterday. They've been better against southpaw starters though. They beat Holland, a left-hander, in the opener. For the season, they're hitting .278 while averaging 4.8 runs in games vs. southpaw starters.

While the Rangers do have the better overall record, the Angels still have a (slightly) better win percentage at home. They need this game more and I look for them to rise to the occasion and get it. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I lost with the Indians yesterday. I'm fully willing to give them another shot today though.

I successfully played against the Indian's in Tomlin's last start. He was on the road though and he was also facing the same team twice in a row, which can sometimes be difficult.

In his most recent home start, Tomlin allowed only one run through seven complete innings. A closer look shows that he gave up just two hits (with 0 walks) in that game, too. That was the second straight home start in which Tomlin allowed only a single run, both of them Cleveland victories.

Going back a bit further finds the Indians at 4-1 in Tomlin's last five home starts and a profitable 13-7 the last 20. Note that Tomlin has allowed just two runs in each of his two career home starts vs. Baltimore, most recently a 3-1 Cleveland win on 4/16/11.

Britton has only made one start so far this season and he got rocked for four runs in four innings. Not only did he give up six hits but he also walked six. That translates to a 9.00 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. Not good!

Britton is also 0-1 and has a 7.50 ERA vs. Cleveland, giving up five runs in six innings in his lone start against.

With Tomlin getting the better of Britton, I expect the Indians to bounce back with a much-needed victory. *9

I'm playing on New York and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game stayed below the total, a 3-2 win for the home team. I expect another well-pitched affair this evening.



While they're known for their hitting, the Yankees have now seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 their last five games. They allowed an average of only two runs per game during that stretch. While yesterday's game was against a southpaw starter, note that the Yankees have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 38-21-1 against right-handed starters.



Meanwhile, yesterday was Oakland's fourth straight game which fell below the total. Including that result, the UNDER is a highly profitable 42-19-1 when the A's are matched up against a right-handed starter. They'll be facing one that's in excellent current form today.



Hughes still doesn't have very impressive overall numbers. However, he's been much better the last couple of months and his ERA has been steadily falling since the end of of May. Last time out, he allowed two runs, only four hits, through seven complete innings. That was the fourth straight start that he allowed three earned runs or less - and the seventh time in eight games that he allowed three earned runs or less. During that stretch, he's 5-2 with a stellar 2.87 ERA.





Admittedly, Parker hasn't been all that sharp his last couple of outings. However, he wasn't that bad last time out (4 runs in 6 innings, 4 K's, 0 walks) and given what he's done all season, its far too early to "write him off." He'll be facing the Yankees for the first time and he'll be doing so at home, where he's typically far more comfortable.



Even with a rare tough outing in his last start here, Parker still has a stellar 2.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in eight home starts. For the season, Parker has allowed four earned runs or less in 13 of 15 starts and one or fewer runs in eight of 15 starts.



Nine of New York's last 14 games here have fallen below the total. I feel this one has an excellent shot at doing the same. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I've successfully played against the Indians a few times lately. I feel that this will be a good spot to play ON them though.

The O's jumped all over the Indians in yesterday's opener. Tonight, I feel that it's the Indians who could easily jump out to the early lead.

Chris Tillman got called up from Double-A Bowie to pitch Baltimore's 7/16 game against Minnesota. It's safe to say that it didn't exactly go the way that Tillman envisioned it. While he was fortunate to that only one run was earned, Tillman failed to make it out of the first inning and he allowed SEVEN runs. It was the shortest outing by an Oriole starter in a year.

Don't be surprised that Tillman was that awful. For his career, he's 8-16 with a 5.36 ERA. That includes a 4-10 mark on the road with a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

It should also be mentioned that Tillman is 0-1 (team is 0-2) with a brutal 9.00 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in two starts vs. Cleveland. He last pitched here in 2009 and allowed six runs in two innings, en route to a 9-0 loss!

McAllister has quietly pitched quite well for the Indians. Last time out, he allowed just one run on only three hits, through six innings. Through eight starts, he's 4-1 with a solid 3.17 ERA. He's got 46 K's in 48 innings, walking just 14 and allowing only four home runs. At home, he's 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA. In three July starts, he's got a stellar 2.04 ERA. Note that McAllister is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA against the Orioles this season. He beat them by a score of 7-2, back in the spring.

Even with yesterday's setback, the Indians are still a profitable 37-27 against right-handed starters. With McAllister getting the better of Tillman, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Giants won yesterday's opener in convincing fashion. With Matt Cain on the mound, they likely feel their chances of another victory are pretty good again this afternoon. The Phillies have an elite pitcher of their own on the mound though - and I expect them to bounce back and even up the series.



Cain checks in with a 10-3 record. The Giants are 12-6 in his starts. Hamels has been every bit as good. He's 11-4 and the Phillies are 12-6 in his starts.



Cain has a stingy 3.28 ERA and 1.196 WHIP on the road. However, Hamels' 2.76 ERA and 1.097 WHIP at home are even better.



Cain averages 6.4 innings per road start and has an impressive 55 Ks vs. just 17 walks. However, Hamels averages 6.9 innings per home start, has an identical number of walks (17) at home as Cain does on the road, plus he's got even more (69) K's.



These two have had some memorable pitcher's duels against each other. Hamels won the most recent, earning a 2-1 win on 8/6/11. Hamels allowed one run in nine innings. Cain allowed two runs (1 earned) in eight innings.



While the Phillies average more than 4.5 runs per game vs. right-handed starters, the Giants average just 3.8 runs per game vs. southpaw starters. Behind another strong performance from Hamels, I expect the Phillies to earn an important win. *10

I'm playing on LA and NY to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's opener was high-scoring, a 7-6 victory for the Dodgers. While this afternoon's game has a higher O/U line than yesterday's game, I'm expecting a considerably lower scoring affair.



Capuano checks in with a 9-5 record, a stellar 2.75 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP. He's seen the UNDER go a profitable 13-6 in his 19 starts, including a 6-3 mark in his nine road starts.



Batista gets the call for the Mets. While he's mostly worked out of the bullpen, the veteran has performed well when asked to start. In fact, he's got a very stingy 1.26 ERA his last three starts - although the last one was back in May.



Batista last started against the Dodgers back in 2006. But he's always had success against them. In fact, he's got a stellar 2.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts against LA and the UNDER was 11-5-1 in those games.



The Dodgers have seen the UNDER go 4-0-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. I expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. *9

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Angels have to be happy to get out of Detroit and back home. They also should be very happy to have Weaver on the mound, as he give them an excellent shot at a victory every time he takes the mound.

For the season, Weaver is an awesome 11-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.945 WHIP. The Angels are 13-3 (+8.8) when he takes the mound.

Weaver has done his best work at home, too. In his last home start, he tossed eight shutout innings, earning a 3-0 victory. That brought him to 6-0 (Angels are 7-0) in his seven home starts, compiling a remarkable 0.58 ERA and 0.557 WHIP. In his seven starts here, he's got 38 K's while only issuing five walks and allowing just one home run.

Admittedly, Weaver has had some real trouble when pitching AT Texas. In fact, the Angels are an awful 2-10 his last 12 starts at Arlington. However, he's had MUCH better success against the Rangers here in California. In fact, the Angels are a PERFECT 9-0 his last nine home starts in this series.

A closer look reveals that Weaver has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight home starts against the Rangers, allowing ZERO runs in FIVE of those games. Note that he's also gone AT LEAST six complete innings in 11 of his 12 career home starts vs. Texas, going more than six innings in the last seven of those.

Holland is off a good outing. That was at SafeCo Field though, a pitcher's park and against a team that doesn't hit well. That sure can't be said of the Angels. They're loaded and have been hitting even better than Texas lately. Overall, Holland has a 4.63 ERA in 12 starts. So, his numbers aren't comparable to Weaver's.

The Angels took two of three from the Rangers here back in June. They know this is their chance to gain ground and with Weaver doing his thing, I expect them to start the series with an important victory. *9

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Mariners are off a solid showing at Kansas City, where they won three of four. I won with the 'under' in the finale of that series yesterday, after cashing with the 'over' in the opener. Today, however, I feel the M's are in over their head.



I won with the Rays yesterday. They closed out their series with Cleveland with a convincing 6-0 victory. A home series vs. the Mariners should provide them with an excellent opportunity to keep on rolling. While the price is a little high, given Tampa's dominance of Seattle here and given the matchup, I feel the line is actually quite fair.



Admittedly, Shields hasn't been at his best lately. In his defense, he's been facing some pretty tough offenses. A date vs. Seattle should be just what the doctor ordered for Shields.



The last time he faced the M's, Shields recorded 11 K's while allowing just one run through six innings. The Rays are 4-1 all-time in Shields' home starts vs. Seattle and 5-2 his last seven starts against the Rays overall. Shields went at least six complete innings in all five of his home starts vs. Seattle and he allowed two earned runs or less in three of those.



With Iwakuma going for Seattle, I expect Shields to get some solid run support. Iwakuma has yet to go more than five innings in a start. In seven road appearances, all out of the bullpen, he's got a terrible 7.71 ERA and 1.93 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .328.



I won't be surprised if Iwakuma doesn't stick along in the rotation long - and I'm taking the opportunity to go against him while he's still in.



The Rays are 11-1 the last 12 times that they hosted the Mariners including a perfect 7-0 the last seven. I expect them to continue that domination for another day here. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on San Diego and Houston to finish UNDER the total. After a low-scoring opener, the last two games of this series have been high-scoring. I expect a much lower-scoring affair tonight, a more typical PetCo Park contest.



The Astros scored four runs yesterday. That's the most that they've scored in seven games though, they'd scored two or less in each of their previous five. For the season, they're averaging 3.4 (avg: .233) runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, even after scoring eight each of the last two games, the Padres are still averaging only 3.1 (avg .225) runs per game here at home this season.



The Padres have long been a profitable UNDER team when listed as home favorites in this range. Indeed, the UNDER is 98-61-2 the last 161 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.



Volquez has a respectable 3.22 ERA at home. In his last start here at PetCo, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. He had 10 K's in that game, the Padres winning by a score of 2-1. For the season, he's seen the UNDER go a profitable 8-3 here, allowing a mere three home runs in those 11 games, while striking out 67 in 67 innings.



Volquez should also be happy to see Houston. He's 5-0 with a stellar 2.53 ERA in seven starts vs. the Astros. The UNDER is 5-2 in those games.



Likewise, Harrell should be happy to see the Padres. He faced SD a few weeks ago and tossed a complete game shutout, en route to earning a 1-0 victory. Expect another well-pitched affair. *10

I'm playing on Seattle and KC to finish UNDER the total. This has been a very high-scoring series thus far and each of the first three games finished above the total. I expect a much lower-scoring contest this afternoon.



Felix Hernandez goes for Seattle. The way that he's pitching, the Royals will be fortunate to score more than a run this afternoon. Last time out, Hernandez tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout, blanking Texas by a score of 7-0. Not only did he hold Texas to three hits, he didn't walk a single batter AND he had 12 K's. That was against one of the best lineups in the league. In his previous start, he limited the A's to one run through seven innings. Including those two outings, King Felix has now allowed one run or less 11 times this season.



Will Smith obviously isn't in the same class as Hernandez. He is a southpaw though, one which Seattle has never seen. With a second shot at the big leagues, Smith should also be very determined to try and stick around. Facing Seattle should give him a good chance to gain some confidence. While the Mariners have swung the bats well this series, they're still not typically a very good hitting team. They're normally terrible vs. southpaws and they also rarely hit well during the day.



In 28 day games, the M's are hitting a mere .202 and averaging only 3.4 runs. The UNDER is 17-10-1 in those games. With Hernandez doing his thing, I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds lost last night. I expect them to bounce right back this afternoon.



Mike Leake has really started to pitch well of late. He's got a 2.05 ERA and 1.091 WHIP his last three starts. He's averaged better than seven innings per outing in those games. Going back a bit further finds Leake with an even better 1.95 ERA and 0.97 WHIP his last five starts.

While Leake got roughed up in his lone start at Arizona, he bounced back with a quality start (Reds won 7-4) in his lone home start against the Diamondbacks, allowing three runs on just four hits, through seven complete innings.



Saunders also has a solid (3.00) ERA his last few starts. However, it comes with a fairly high 1.50 WHIP, which means he's been giving up considerably more baserunners than Leake recently. While it hasn't really been his fault, the Diamondbacks are only 2-5 (-2.8) when Saunders starts outside of the desert.



The Reds have been at their best when playing during the day; they're 22-11 in days games. They've hit Saunders hard every time they've seen him (he's 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.96 WHIP against the Reds!) and I expect them to do so again, en route to salvaging the series split. *9

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Rays lost yesterday. With their ace on the mound, I fully expect them to bounce back this afternoon.

Price has dominated the likes of the Red Sox, Yankees and Tigers his last three starts. He's gone 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in those games, averaging better than seven innings per start. No surprise. He's done that all season. He's now 12-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.202 WHIP on the season. In nine home starts, he's 6-2 with a superb 2.25 ERA and 1.047 WHIP, averaging better than seven innings per star. He's got 66 K's in 64 innings here, allowing only four home runs.

On the other hand, Jimenez has been horrible on the road. I played against him in his last start and he got rocked for eight runs in 2 1/3 innings. In 10 road starts, he now has a dismal 6.49 ERA and 1.899 WHIP.

Price is 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.085 WHIP in five career starts vs. the Indians. While the Rays just saw Jimenez less than two weeks ago, Price will have the luxury of facing Cleveland for the first time this season. His last start against the Tribe came last May. He tossed seven shutout innings and recorded 12 K's, winning 5-0.

The Rays have still dominated the Indians here in recent years and they're still 87-37 (+27) the last 100+ times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. With Price doing his thing, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing DETROIT on the Run-Line. Facing LA's CJ Wilson, the Tigers find themselves as slight underdogs today. That means that we're able to get them at +1.5 runs for a fairly reasonable price. Given the situation and venue, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.



The Tigers got embarrassed yesterday, losing by a score of 13-0. No team likes to get blown out in front of its home fans - particularly a team that is used to winning at home. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Tigers here as they go all out to avoid a similar fate today.



While the Angels were certainly impressive yesterday, the Tigers have been pretty good themselves recently. Even after yesterday's debacle, they're still 8-2 their last 10. During that stretch, they averaging 5.6 runs (and 1.5 HRs) per game while hitting .292. Prior to yesterday's loss, they'd won six straight at home.



Fister goes for the Tigers. Admittedly, he hasn't been as consistent as he or the Tigers would like. However, I quite liked what I saw from him last time out and believe he's poised for a strong second half. In his last start, through seven complete innings, Fister allowed only three hits and one run. He recorded eight K's and didn't walk a batter, en route to earning a 7-2 victory.



Wilson is tough and he's having a strong season. However, he's likely not happy to be facing the Tigers. Indeed, he's 0-2 with an ugly 6.14 ERA in nine appearances - three starts - against Detroit. He has a 6.23 ERA in the three starts and has allowed 10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his two starts here at Detroit - both losses for his team. Note that two of Wilson's three starts vs. the Tigers were decided by a single run, as were each of his last two starts overall.



By comparison, Fister has a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in his six starts against the Angels.



While the Angels are 14-19 (-7.9) the past few seasons off a shutout win, the Tigers are 9-6 (+3.4) off a shutout loss. I expect the Tigers to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening but out of respect for Wilson, will be grabbing the extra +1.5 runs - and improving my chances of cashing even further. *9

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. The Mariners jumped all over Jonathan Sanchez in last night's opener, en route to a convincing road win. That didn't come as a surprise, as Sanchez had a 12.18 ERA his last four starts. While I won with the 'over' in last night's game, tonight I'm going with the Royals.



Beaven goes for Seattle. He may have had some recent success down at Tacoma. However, he's back in the big leagues now. Beaven's last major league start was more than a month ago. He allowed six runs in two innings, en route to an 8-2 loss. Through 12 starts, he's 3-6 with a 5.92 ERA. On the road, he's 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. While he averaged only 5.2 innings per start, he still managed to allow an average of a home run every time out. He's got an 11.77 ERA and 1.923 WHIP his last three starts - the first sign of trouble and his confidence could well take a hit.



The Royals had a look at Beaven last September. He beat them that day - that was on the road though and KC did manage nine hits in six innings - so, it was certainly not like they weren't seeing the ball against him.



Everett Teaford was originally supposed to get the call for KC - but he had to go in relief last night. That means that Ryan Verdugo is now expected to get the call. Whether its Verdugo or veteran Doug Davis on the mound, matched up against Beaven, the Royals shouldn't be at a disadvantage on the mound. In fact, I believe either gives the Royals an advantage.



Verdugo is a southpaw - and although the M's beat a left-hander yesterday, they're still a dismal 36-84 their last 120 against left-handers. Should Davis go instead of Verdugo, note that he's a veteran looking for one last shot. He's been having plenty of success at the Triple-A level and a game against light-hitting Seattle would be just what the doctor ordered.



Last night's game notwithstanding, I feel the Royals have the better hitting lineup. The M's entered the series averaging 3.8 runs per game and hitting .229. The Royals entered the series averaging 4.1 runs and hitting .266.



This is a series the Royals still want to win - or at least split. I expect them to bounce back with a big team effort, en route to a convincing win. *10 (Note: This is an "Action" Play, rather than "Listed.")

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. After dropping two of three vs. the Red Sox, the Rays desperately need victories. Facing Cleveland and then Seattle at home should provide them with the opportunity to get some. After dropping yesterday's opener, I expect the Rays to bounce back in a big way this evening.

Admittedly, Moore wasn't at his best vs. these same Indians last time out. That was at Cleveland though. Moore has been much better here at home. In his last start here, he held the Yankees to three runs through seven innings, earning a 4-3 win. He's 4-3 (Rays are 6-4) in 10 home starts, compiling a respectable 3.79 ERA during that stretch, while striking out 58 in 59 innings.

Tomlin pitched well vs. these same Rays at Cleveland. He's got an ugly 6.09 ERA in his six road starts. In his last two road starts, he's given up 11 runs in nine innings.

Note that Moore is supported by the superior bullpen than Tomlin. The Rays' relievers entered the series with a combined 2.39 ERA and 1.055 WHIP at home. The Indians' relievers entered the series with a 4.80 ERA on the road.

Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Rays have dominated the Indians here in recent seasons. I expect them to get back on track in a big way here. *9

I'm playing on KC and Seattle to finish OVER the total. The Mariners don't hit too well at Safeco Field. We saw that again yesterday, as they were blanked by Texas. However, on the road, they tend to score a lot more runs. On the road, the Mariners are averaging a respectable 4.8 runs per game, allowing 4.9. With visiting teams averaging 5.0 runs and hitting .273 here at KC, the M's should be able to score some runs here.

That becomes even more likely when considering the pitcher that they're matched up against. In 11 starts, Sanchez is 1-5 with an ugly 6.75 ERA and a terrible 1.942 WHIP. At home, those numbers are even worse. In five home starts, Sanchez has an awful 8.43 ERA and 2.109 WHIP. He's averaging less than five innings per home start, while walking more batters than he strikes out.

Vargas has been tough at home. However, a strong recent start at Oakland notwithstanding, he's struggled on the road. In 11 road starts, he's got a poor 5.09 ERA. He has gotten solid run support in those games though, which has led to the OVER going a lucrative 8-3.

Not surprisingly, Vargas has pitched well in both career home starts against the Royals but got rocked by them in his lone start at KC. In that game, he allowed eight runs, seven of them earned.

The OVER is 35-18-2 the last 55 times that the Royals played at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range. I expect those stats to improve here. *9

I'm playing on Boston and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. We don't see too many O/U lines of 11 these days. The Red Sox have had a few but none this month. The White Sox last game with an O/U line of 11 was on Independence Day. That game vs. Texas finished with nine runs. Tonight's O/U line has opened at 11 once again though and I feel that's providing us with very fair value.



Sometimes a couple of games against lesser offenses can help build a pitcher's confidence. That's been the case for Aaron Cook, who has really come around of late. He's 2-1 with a stingy 2.25 ERA and 0.90 WHIP his last three starts. Each of his last two starts have fallen below the total, they had scores of 2-3 and 5-0.



Floyd has also really started to throw well recently. Last time out, he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings. He's 2-1 with an outstanding 1.80 ERA his last three starts. All three of those games stayed below the total - they had scores of 3-2, 2-4 and 2-0. For the season, the UNDER is 11-5-1 in his 17 starts, including 6-1 on the road.



Cook has faced the White sox just once the past few years. That came late last June and he allowed only one run through six innings. Meanwhile, Floyd is 7-0 with a stellar 2.75 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in eight starts vs. Boston. He outpitched Beckett earlier this season, striking out nine in 6 2/3 innings, allowing only three hits, one run and one walk. He won that one by a score of 4-1. His previous start vs. Boston, which came last July, saw Floyd allow only three hits in seven complete innings, earning a 3-1 victory. Overall, the UNDER is 6-2 in his eight starts vs. Boston. I feel those stats will improve this evening. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on LA. The Dodgers are fairly heavy favorites here. However, I feel that the high price is justified.

The Padres won yesterday's game, rallying for two runs in the top of the 9th to win 7-6. They're still an awful 35-54, 18-27 on the road. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still a solid 28-17 here at LA.

While yesterday's loss was a painful one, the Dodgers know they need to respond. They've now officially fallen out of first in the West and know they can't afford to lose a series with lowly San Diego.

With a 4-9 record, Billingsley certainly can't be too happy with his first half. That said, there are some positives. The Dodgers do still have a winning record (5-4, +0.6) when he pitches at home. While he doesn't always dominate, Billingsley almost never gets really beaten up here. In fact, he's allowed four earned runs or less in 13 straight home starts, going at least six innings in the majority of those. This season, he's got 53 Ks vs. only 18 walks, in 53 home innings pitched. He's also allowed only three home runs, during that time. So, while he won't be winning any Cy Young awards - it hasn't been as bad as the record indicates.

Billingsley has a couple of things going for him here. For starters, he's facing the Padres. Not only does San Diego hit .234 and average 3.5 runs but Billingsley has also enjoyed great recent success against the Padres. In fact, he's got a 0.84 ERA his last three starts vs. SD. In this season's lone start against the Padres, he tossed 8 1/3 shutout innings, striking out 11 and walking only one. He gave up just three hits and the Dodgers won 6-0. That was at PetCo. His last home start against SD came last July and he won that one by a score of 1-0, tossing eight shutout innings.

The other thing Billingsley has in his favor is that he should get some run support, something which has been an issue in his recent starts. At 3-9, Marquis has an even worse record than Billingsely. He's also got a far worse ERA and WHIP. In six road starts, Marquis had a terrible 6.61 ERA and 1.724 WHIP.

Billingsley got the better of Marquis, who was with Washington at the time, last July, a 3-1 LA win. I expect him to outpitch Marquis again this afternoon as LA improves to 24-10 (+8.2) the L34 times it was listed as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The A's have won each of the first two games in this series. I expect the Twins to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon though.

The A's have only swept one road series all year and they haven't swept a road series here at Minnesota for more than a decade.

While the A's have been red hot of late, they lost Parker's last start. The rookie got rocked for six runs in 4 2/3 innings.

I don't expect Parker to receive much run support. Duensing is 2-0 with a stellar 1.64 ERA in six career appearances, including two starts, vs. Oakland. In those two starts, he's got a 0.00 ERA, allowing 0 runs in 16 innings. Duensing won those games by a combined score of 10-0.

While the A's did beat a left-hander in the opening game of this series, they typically have trouble with southpaws. They're hitting a mere .220 in games against southpaw starters, averaging just 3.6 runs. Not surprisingly, they're only 13-17 in those games.

While the A's are hitting .219 in day games, the Twins are hitting .270 in the afternoon. No sweep here. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on Minnesota and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. The first two games have produced nine and 12 runs, respectively. I expect a lower-scoring affair in this afternoon's finale.

Duensing is 2-0 with a stellar 1.64 ERA in six career appearances, including two starts, vs. Oakland. In those two starts, he's got a 0.00 ERA, allowing 0 runs in 16 innings!

Duensing will be facing an Oakland team which hits only .219 in day games and only .220 against southpaws.

Admittedly, Parker didn't pitch well last time out. However, given that he was 3-0 with a 1.01 ERA in his previous four starts, we can cut him a little slack. He's got a 2.86 ERA overall this season and four of his six road starts have fallen below the total.

The A's have still seen the UNDER go 27-16-3 on the road and 18-10-2 when playing during the afternoon. The Twins have seen the UNDER go 16-11-2 in their afternoon games. I expect those stats to improve here. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Jays yesterday and I'm coming back with them again this afternoon.

With yesterday's loss, the Indians are now a terrible 53-85 (-27.4) in day games the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're 11-21 (-8) after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game.

Villaneuva has only started twice this season but he's been excellent. In those two games, he's gone 1-0 (Jays were 2-0) with a stingy 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. He's struck out 13, walked only one and allowed 0 HRs. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings, striking out seven and walking 0. Note that Villlaneuva also tossed six shutout innings in his lone start vs. Cleveland, which came last July.

On the other hand, Lowe is 3-5 (Clev is 3-6) with an ugly 5.96 ERA and 1.831 WHIP. He's walked more than he struck out in those games, too.

With a huge series at New York (followed by Boston) looming, the Jays could desperately use a win here. I expect them to get it. *9

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Brewers yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again today.

The Brewers fell behind yesterday, as Greinke didn't get it done. The defending division champs didn't quit though. They rallied back to tie the game 6-6, eventually earning a 10-7 win. I believe that victory will provide them with some positive momentum here.

At first glance, Estrada's 0-3 record in eight starts certainly isn't very attractive. Yet, a closer look reveals that there are some positives. Estrada's made two starts since returning to the rotation and has allowed five runs in 12 innings. That's solid. The impressive part, however, is that he's recorded 18 K's and walked just two batters. Meanwhile, he's given up only nine hits. When a starting pitcher records twice as many strikeouts, as hits allowed, over a 2-game period - he's generally doing something right.

Last time out, Estrada limited Miami to two runs through six complete innings. He gave up just four hits, didn't walk a batter and struck out six. The Brewers did win. He just didn't factor in the decision. He's now got a 0.846 WHIP his last three starts and a 1.024 WHIP in his eight starts overall. During that time, he's got 45 K's vs. just six walks. Once again, this guy is throwing better than his record suggests.

It should also be mentioned that Estrada is 2-0 with an outstanding 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two starts vs. Pittsburgh. He's had plenty of success against the Pirates' hot hitters, too. All Star Andrew McCutchen is 1 for 7 in his career against Estrada. Neil Walker, who is currently batting .471 during his 13-game hit streak, is only 1 for 8 against Estrada. Estrada won those two starts vs. Pittsburgh by a combined score of 12-4.

Estrada should get some support here. The Brewers bats came to life last night. They're averaging 5.4 runs per game at home. (The Pirates average 4.4 runs per game on the road.) Tonight, Milwaukee will oppose Correia, who typically struggles away from Pittsburgh.

Correia, 3-6 witha 5.40 ERA in 10 starts vs. the Brewers, is 3-4 with a poor 5.10 ERA on the road this season.

Yesterday, I mentioned that the Brewers know that this is their opportunity to gain ground. Not only do they get to host the division leader but they also get to have the Cards and Reds beating up on each other. They took advantage yesterday and have now won seven of 10.

Manager Ron Roenicke had this to say: "We thought this was going to be a contending team. We all felt good about the personnel we had. So we're at a point now where we haven't played consistently well all year, but it comes down to here, somewhere, we have to make a move."

With Estrada continuing his success against the Pirates, I expect the Brewers to continue to make their move. *10 NL GOM

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Red Sox won yesterday's opener. I expect the Rays to return the favor here. Price checks in at 11-4 with an outstanding 2.82 ERA. In eight home starts, he's 5-2 with a terrific 2.22 ERA and 1.024. In 56 2/3 innings here, he's got 58 strikeouts against just 17 walks and has allowed only three home runs. Buchholz was certainly starting to (finally) come around for the Sox. However, he hasn't started since 6/19. He's also still got a 5.53 ERA on the season. In six road starts, he's got a 5.71 ERA and a 1.587 WHIP. Bucholz, who has been on the disabled list with a gastrointestinal illness, went 2 1/3 innings at Pawtucket on Sunday. Even manager Bobby Valentine acknowledged: "Not sure he could go 100-plus pitches ... " Both teams badly need victories. Playing at home, with their ace on the mound and already down a game, the Rays arguably need this one more though. I expect them to play with some urgency and with Price outpitching and outlasting Buchholz, I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win. *9 A.L. Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Battle of first and fourth place teams in the division here. Prior to the season, most would have assumed that the Brewers would have been the team in first. That's not the case though, as Pittsburgh sits on top of the division, while Milwaukee sits behind the second and third place teams, Cincy and St. Louis.



The Pirates may have the better overall record. However, that's thanks to their outstanding 29-14 record at Pittsburgh. On the road, they're only 19-23. That's not as good as Milwaukee's 22-21 home record.



Back eight games, the Brewers know this is their chance to gain some ground on the Pirates, while the Reds and Cards beat each other up at the same time. The Brewers haven't forgotten that the Pirates were on top of the Central on July 25th last year and still finished 24 games out.



Greinke had this to say: "We still have time. And hopefully that will take care of it."



Both starters have 9-3 records - and McDonald has the superior overall ERA. However, while McDonald has been dominant at home (5-1, 1.69 ERA) he's been far more hittable (4-2, 3.54 ERA) on the road. Note that his ERA is almost a full run higher in the evening than during the day, too.



On the other hand, Greinke has struggled on the road but is 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home. Opposing batters hit .310 against him on the road but only .186 here at Miller Park. In 47 2/3 innings here, Greinke has recorded 56 K's, walking only 10. He's also allowed a mere two home runs here.



Note that the Brewers have already seen McDonald (1-2, 6.61 ERA vs. Milw) once this season while the Pirates haven't seen Greinke (4-1 vs. Pitt) since last season. The Brewers are still 21-1 in Greinke's 22 regular season starts and they're still 16-5 (+8.1) as a host in this series the past few seasons. Behind a big game from their ace, I expect the defending division champs to serve notice that the race is still fully on. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Milwaukee and Pittsburgh to finish UNDER the total. Both starters check in with 9-3 records. Each knows this is a big game. Likely feeling snubbed for not making the All Start team, McDonald should be highly motivated to pitch well. Likewise for Greinke, who knows his team needs him to be carry the load here.

While Greinke has struggled on the road, he's still 4-0 with a exceptional 1.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home. Opposing batters hit .310 against him on the road but only .186 here at Miller Park. In 47 2/3 innings here, Greinke has recorded 56 K's, walking only 10. He's also allowed a mere two home runs here.

It's true that McDonald has been better at home than on the road. However, with a 2.37 ERA and 0.937 WHIP overall, he's certainly capable of pitching well anywhere. He allowed three runs in six innings here earlier in the season. However, a closer look reveals that only one of those runs was earned - and that McDonald allowed only four hits, while striking out eight. Note that he's backed by a Pirate bullpen that has a 2.63 ERA on the season. I expect a well-pitched affair. *9

I'm playing on St. Louis and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. Latos didn't make the All Star Game but he entered the break pitching as well as anyone. Since getting beaten by these same Cardinals back in April, he's won seven straight decisions. Over his last three starts, Latos is 2-0 with an exceptional 0.72 ERA and a 0.56 WHIP! In that 25 inning span, he's allowed only 10 hits and two runs, striking out a whopping 28.

Latos doesn't have very good numbers against St. Louis. However, he's never faced the Cards when he's been pitching as well as he currently is. Also, note that he tossed eight excellent innings the last time that he faced the Cards at "home," allowing just one run, striking out seven and walking none, en route to a 3-1 victory. Note that Latos has the support of a Reds' bullpen which has a 2.62 ERA and 1.046 WHIP here at Cincinnati.

While not as dominant as Latos, Wainwright also entered the break on a solid note. He's had 14 K's vs. just two walks his last two starts. Last time out, he allowed only one run in six complete innings. In seven road starts this season, Wainwright has a respectable 3.95 ERA. In 43+ road innings, he's given up just two home runs, striking out 39 and walking only 12.

Wainwright's last start here at Cincinnati came in 2010. He tossed seven shutout innings in that game, allowing a mere two hits. Note that Reds' slugger Joey Votto is only 1 for 14 against him - Votto's worst mark against any pitched he's faced that many times.

While Cincinnati can sometimes be a high-scoring venue, a look at the history between these teams shows that the UNDER is 5-0 the last five times that the Cards played here. Those games had scores of 4-1, 3-1, 7-1, 3-1 and 4-3. I expect another low-scoring affair. *9

I'm playing on TORONTO. These teams aren't in the same division. However, this is a big series as both hope to be battling for a Wild Card spot in the second half. While the Indians have a slightly better overall record, the Jays' home record (23-19) is superior to Cleveland's 20-20 road record. I expect the Jays to have the advantage this evening.



Admittedly, Romero was struggling before the break. However, he put it together with a quality start last time out. Despite suffering a hard-luck 2-0 loss, Romero allowed just four hits and two runs through six complete innings. That type of effort gives him something positive to build on here. While that was on the road, note that Romero is 5-1 in eight home starts. The Jays were 6-2 (2.6) in those games. In fact, they're a dominating 16-4 his last 20 starts here. Note that the Jays are also 1-0 in Romero's lone career home start vs. Cleveland.



Unlike Romero, Masterson got rocked in his last start. He lasted only 4 1/3 innings and allowed eight runs. Along the way, he gave up nine hits (2 HRs) and walked four batters. While Romero is 5-1 at home, Masterson is a poor 2-4 with an ugly 5.93 ERA (1.512 WHIP) on the road. In his lone career start at Toronto, Masterson allowed eight runs (on 13 hits!) in just 5 2/3 innings. Masterson took the loss, as the Jays won by a score of 8-1.



I expect Romero to get the better of Masterson here, as the Jays start the second half with a victory, improving to 42-23 (+22.6) the past 2+ seasons, when playing on a Friday. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on New York and LA to finish UNDER the total. This O/U line has risen to nine (from 8.5) at some shops, which I feel is providing us with excellent value.



Wilson had a terrific first half. He checks in at 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.159 WHIP. The UNDER is a lucrative 13-5 in his 18 starts. Wilson has done his best work on the road, too. In 11 starts outside of Anaheim, he's 6-2 with a superb 2.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Eight of those 11 starts have fallen below the number.



While Wilson has been very tough on the road, Kuroda has been extremely stingy at home. In nine home starts, he's 6-3 with an outstanding 2.56 ERA and 1.056 WHIP. The UNDER is 6-3 in his nine starts here and 12-5 in his 17 starts here overall.



Both bullpens were solid in the first half. LA relievers have a 3.16 ERA and 1.268 WHIP. The NY bullpen has a 3.20 ERA and 1.281 WHIP.



Wilson has been great in two starts against NY the last two seasons. Last season, he held the Yanks to two runs through eight innings, striking out 10. The final score was 3-2. This season, he was arguably even better. In six innings, he allowed just one run, earning a 7-1 victory. Meanwhile, Kuroda hasn't allowed a single run in his last two starts vs. the Angels, a span of 15 innings. He won both those games by identical 5-0 scores. I expect another well-pitched affair. *9 Blue Chip

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and SF to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in yesterday's 3-1 Pittsburgh victory. I expect another low-scoring affair this afternoon.

Burnett wasn't his best in his last start. However, he'd been pitching very well before that. He's still 5-0 with an outstanding 2.01 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in eight home starts, averaging nearly seven innings per outing here. In ALL those eight games, he's given up only ONE home run. Not surprisingly, six of his eight starts here have fallen below the total.

Burnett is supported by a Pittsburgh bullpen which has also been terrific at home.

Like Burnett, Lincecum got roughed up last time out. Like Burnett, he'd also pitched well in his previous start. In fact, he'd tossed seven shutout innings, striking out eight and winning by a score of 3-0.

While it's admittedly been a (very) tough first half, I expect the looming All Start Game plus a date with the Pirates to bring out the best in Lincecum. Lincecum hasn't faced the Pirates since 2010 but his last three starts against them saw him allow just four earned runs in 23 innings, a 1.57 ERA, while striking out an impressive 31. Not surprisingly, two of those three games stayed below the number.

As for Burnett, he's 5-2 with a terrific 1.84 ERA in seven starts vs. the Giants, although he also hasn't seen them in a number of years. The UNDER is 5-2 in those games.

I expect both starters to bounce back with a much better effort, the UNDER improving to 20-8-2 the last 30 times that the Pirates played during the afternoon. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Despite not scoring until the bottom of the 8th inning, the A's rallied to win yesterday's series opener. They scored their first run in the bottom of the eighth inning and then got three more when pinch-hitter Chris Carter (who had began his career by going 0-33 a couple of years ago!) hit a game-winning 3-run HR in the bottom of the 11th inning. With plenty of positive momentum on their side and with this game again being played in California, I expect the A's to have the advantage.

With yesterday's victory, the A's are now an impressive 16-7 their last 23 games. They've hit home runs in 16 straight games and their pitchers have a combined 0.96 ERA during that time.

Parker gets the call for the Oakland. In six road starts, Parker has a respectable 3.74 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, in his seven home starts, Parker is 2-1 with a spectacular 1.54 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting just .209 against him here.

Now 3-0 with a superb 1.01 ERA his last four starts, Parker has actually allowed one run or less in 10 of his first 14 starts. Considering that he's the first pitcher to accomplish that feat in nearly 100 years, that's pretty impressive! The last person to do so was Ferdie Schupp of the New York Giants, way back in 1913-17.

Vargas has also been great when pitching in his home park. In eight starts at Safeco Field, Vargas has a stingy 2.84 ERA, allowing six home runs. However, in 10 road starts, he's allowed a whopping 16 home runs, compiling a terrible 5.70 ERA.

While Parker doesn't have much of a history to look at, the difference between Vargas' home/road stats has been evident for a number of years. For his career, Vargas is 22-21 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home. However, on the road, he's 13-25 with a brutal 5.46 ERA and a high 1.46 WHIP. Opposing batters have hit .242 against him at home in his career but .279 on the road.

The A's have a chance to climb above .500 for the first time since May. With Parker continuing his strong pitching here, I expect them to do so. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Tampa Bay and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. After a low-scoring (3-1) series opener on Thursday, yesterday's game finished above the total. I expect this afternoon's contest to do the same. Jimenez has very good stuff. That good stuff comes with some control issues though. For the season, he's got 69 K's, which is fairly impressive. However, he's also got a very high 57 walks, which isn't very good at all. In fact, he's walked at least four batters in eight of his last 12 starts, including each of his last three. That will eventually catch up to a pitcher. For the season, he's got a fairly high 4.59 ERA and a poor 1.542 WHIP. With 93 K's in 95 innings, Moore also has good stuff. A poor 4.80 road ERA, to go along with a 1.542 WHIP on the road, is certainly nothing to write home about though. He's given up 19 hits, while also walking five batters, in his last two starts lone. Including yesterday's result, the OVER is now 9-5-1 when the Rays have played a road game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. Meanwhile, the Indians have now seen the OVER go 16-10-2 when playing a game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. Going back further finds the OVER at 97-71-3 the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. I expect those stats to improve here. *9

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and SF to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener was high-scoring. With both starters in excellent current form, I expect a "pitcher's duel" this afternoon though.

McDonald allowed two runs through seven innings last time out. He's 8-3 with an excellent 2.45 ERA on the season. In nine home starts, he's 4-1 with an exceptional 1.73 ERA and 0.931 WHIP. He's averaged nearly seven (6.9) innings per home start and has only allowed three home runs in 62+ innings here.

Note that the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 when McDonald has started against the Giants. His last home start against them came in the spring of 2011. McDonald tossed six shutout innings, en route to a 2-0 Pittsburgh victory.

Like McDonald, Vogelsong allowed just two runs through seven innings in his last start. In his previous start, he tossed seven shutout innings. He's got a superb 2.14 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his last three starts and he's 7-3 with a terrific 2.26 ERA and 1.109 WHIP on the season.

Note that the UNDER is a perfect 3-0 when Vogelsong has started against the Pirates. In 17 innings against Pittsburgh, he's got 23 K's.

A few recent games notwithstanding, the UNDER has been highly lucrative here at Pittsburgh all season. I expect things to return to "normal" as this afternoon's game proves lower-scoring than many will expect. *9

I'm playing on TEXAS. I successfully played against the Rangers a few days ago, the game they lost 19-2. They haven't won since. With a rookie on the mound, some may expect their skid to continue tonight. Not me.

Martin Perez gets the call for Texas and he was actually the last Ranger pitcher to earn a victory. The 21-year old southpaw wasn't spectacular in his first start - but he was solid, doing enough for the "W." He allowed two runs through 5 1/3 innings, striking out five while walking only one. Perez, the Rangers' top pitching prospect, now has a start under his belt and his confidence should be bolstered. He also figures to receive some run support.

Liriano had been been pitching better, since returning to the starting rotation. However, he wasn't too sharp last time out, taking a step backwards. In 5 1/3 innings, he allowed five runs (4 earned) while walking four batters. While he did pitch well in his last road start, Liriano is still 0-5 with a terrible 6.41 ERA and 1.671 WHIP on the road this season. He's been rather "streaky" in his career and his sub-par outing last time out could easily lead to problems against this powerful Texas lineup, one which is dying to explode with a big game.

Liriano did pitch well his last start here. However, in his previous start here he got rocked for seven runs in two innings. So, he knows what the Rangers can do in this ballpark. (While the Twins average 3.9 runs per game and hit .233 on the road, the Rangers average 5.6 and hit .288 here at Texas!)

Despite the recent skid, the Rangers are still a lucrative 21-10 (+6.8) when off a loss, going 110-71 (+21.2) in that situation the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Rangers are also 38-20 (+9.5) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. They swept the Twins earlier and I look for them to get the series started with a much needed victory tonight. *9 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on Cincinnati and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. At 6.5, this is the lowest O/U line on the Thursday board. That alone will attract some attention from the many 'over' bettors out there. Many can't resist such a low line. I feel that the number is low for good reason though. In fact, I feel that the UNDER is providing us with excellent value.

As you're likely aware, games at Petco Park are often low-scoring. Sure, it's a great place to take the family to see a game - but, that's only if your family enjoys watching low-scoring "pitcher's duels," which are often the norm here.

For the season, games are averaging less than seven runs here. The Padres hit .221 here. Opposing teams hit .232. The last game here resulted in a 2-0 final. Before that, the score was 5-1.

While games at San Diego are known for being low-scoring, the Reds have quietly been playing low-scoring games away from Cincinnati all season. They're off a 4-1 loss yesterday, which was preceded by a 3-1 loss the previous day. The UNDER is now 5-1-1 on their current road trip and a lucrative 25-15-2 when they've played on the road this season.

Tonight's game features a pair of red hot pitchers who both figure to have something to prove. Mat Latos goes for the visitors while Edinson Volquez gets the call for the home team. You may recall that these two pitchers were traded for each other during the offseason. This will be the first time that they've started against their former clubs and each should be highly motivated to perform well.

As Volquez noted: "I'm excited. I look forward to pitching against them. It's going to be fun."

While walks have still been an issue, over his last two starts, Volquez has allowed just one earned run and seven hits in 12 2/3 innings, going 2-0. That translates to a 0.71 ERA. His last home start was the previously mentioned 2-0 game, back on 6/24. Including that result, the UNDER is 7-3 in his 10 starts here.

Latos has arguably been even better. He's off back to back complete games, allowing one run in each. Last time out, he allowed just two hits without walking a batter. The final score of that one was 2-1. His previous start was a 3-1 final. Over his last two starts, he has a 1.00 ERA with 20 K's against only two walks. Since getting off to a slow start when he first arrived, Latos has proceeded to go 7-0 his last 13 starts.

Manager Dusty Baker said this of Latos: "When a guy gets a feeling and gets on a roll, let him roll and be as natural as possible."

While the Padres bullpen has a 2.85 ERA at home, Cincinnati relievers have a stellar 2.86 mark on the road. I expect a well-pitched affair with the UNDER improving to 11-6-2 when the Reds played a game with an O/U line of seven or less. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Nationals have had their way with the Giants in the first two games of this series, knocking both Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner around. I expect them to have a considerably more difficult time with Matt Cain. Meanwhile, matched up against a southpaw for the first time in the series, I expect the Giants to finally get it together.

Cain is off a rare rough outing. However, at 9-3 with a 2.53 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and a no-hitter, he's had a great first half. While he's been dominant at home, with a 5-1 record on the road, Cain has also been able to win away from San Francisco.

Cain has been solid vs. the Nationals for his career. In 11 starts against the Nats, he's got a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Last time that he faced them, Cain limited the Nats to one run on five hits, tossing a complete game. Cain had 11 K's and only one walk, en route to earning a 3-1 victory.

Detwiler has only recently returned to the rotation. He pitched well last time out but ran into a wall in the seventh inning. He likely won't have the stamina that Cain will here. Note that he's also 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.94 WHIP from his lone start vs. the Giants. In 5.2 innings vs. SF, he allowed four runs on 10 hits. He was also opposed by Cain on that day, SF winning 4-1.

The Giants faced a pair of right-handed starters in the first two games. Detwiler is a left-hander though, which should be more to their liking. SF is a highly profitable 70-46 (+20.3) against southpaw starters the past 2+ seasons, including 16-8 (+9.4) this season.

Yesterday notwithstanding, the Giants have been excellent off a loss. With Cain returning to his "normal self," I expect them to bounce back with an important win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves entered yesterday's game off back-to-back losses and having dropped four of their last five. Down 3-1 entering the bottom of the 5th inning, it appeared that skid might continue. Chipper Jones made sure it didn't. Hours after being name to the All Star team, Chipper delivered a 5-for-5 performance, driving in four runs in the process. Atlanta went on to win 10-3. I expect the Braves to carry the positive momentum from that big victory into this evening's game.

While he's obviously no All Star, Delgado has pitched a lot better here at home than his record suggests. In eight home starts, he's got a respectable 3.66 ERA, allowing just four home runs.

Delgado's lone start against the Cubs saw him go 5 2/3 innings and allow just three hits and one run. He didn't factor in the decision but the Braves won 3-1.

Maholm has also enjoyed success against today's opponent. In fact, he's been great against the Braves for his career. That said, one can't ignore this season's road stats. In seven road games this season, Maholm is 1-4 (team is 1-6!) with a terrible 7.15 ERA and 7.65 WHIP. He's averaging less than five innings in those games, walking nearly as many as he strikes out.

Despite the fact that he has pitched well vs. the Braves, note that Maholm's teams are still only 3-4 when he starts against them, including a 1-3 mark when he pitches here at Atlanta.

Just as one can't ignore Maholm's road numbers this season, one also has to keep in mind Chicago's team stats. At 30-50 and 11-30 away from Wrigley, the Cubs are a bad team. They find ways to lose.

While the price may initially seem a little steep, keep in mind that the Braves are a profitable 46-25 (+5.6) when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range the past few seasons. Having gotten back on track yesterday, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *8 (Main Event)

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Rays grabbed yesterday's game after also winning Monday's opener. Many will think that the Yankees can't possibly get swept. However, the fact is, a sweep is entirely "possible." In fact, if one objectively considers the evidence, I'd go as far as calling it "probable."

Remarkably, the Yankees have now lost 11 straight games on artificial turf including nine straight here at Tropicana Field. The Rays have outscored them by a 49-32 margin in those nine games. Going back further finds the Yanks at a money-burning 14-29 (-18.9) on artificial turf the past 2+ seasons.

Price gets the call. Not surprisingly, given their dominance over NY here, the Rays are 2-0 his last two home starts against the Yankees. Price is tied for the most victories in the American League and a win here will tie him with Dickey for the most in the majors. Given his 5-0 record and 1.19 ERA against A.L. teams here at home, he should have a solid shot. For his career, Price is 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA in seven career home starts vs. NY. The Rays won six of those.

At 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA, Price has had a great first half. Going 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP his last three starts shows he's not slowing down. Obviously, he'd really like to keep his momentum rolling into the break.

While Price is a proven winner, Phelps will be making just his third start for the Yankees. Although he's been solid enough, he has yet to go a full five innings in a start. While a rookie starter would normally have the advantage of facing a team for the first time, that's not the case for Phelps, as the Rays have already had a look at him.

I expect Price to outpitch and outlast the rookie, as the Rays break out the brooms and continue their homefield dominance of the Yanks for another day. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on Seattle and Baltimore to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total, a 6-3 Seattle victory. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.

Felix Hernandez has been practically unhittable of late. He's off a shutout victory over the Red Sox last time out, striking out a whopping 13 along the way, allowing only five hits.

King Felix had this to say: "This year, this is the best game that I've thrown. I was throwing a lot of strikes and all the pitches were working."

Hernandez's last three starts have all fallen below the total. They had scores of 2-1, 5-1 and 1-0, Seattle winning each. During that stretch, the Mariners' ace had 30 K's vs. just three walks, compiling a remarkable 0.78 ERA.

Not that he typically needs much help - but it should be noted that Hernandez is backed by a Seattle bullpen which has a spectacular 1.03 ERA the last 10 games.

It's tough being a rookie in the AL East. However, Wei-Yin Chan has more than held his own. Even after a tough outing last time out, he's still a very solid 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA on the season.

Chen should enjoy facing the normally light-hitting Mariners. Note that he's 2-0 with a superb 1.29 ERA in three outings against AL West teams, making the most of it when he doesn't have to face some of the big hitting teams in his own division. He'll have the advantage of facing Seattle for the first time.

Note that the UNDER is 9-5-1 in Chen's 15 starts, 5-2 when he pitches on the road. In his last road start, Chen tossed seven shutout innings, winning 2-0 at Atlanta.

The M's entered this series batting an awful .197 here at Safeco. Prior to yesterday's game finishing above the total, they'd seen nine straight games fall beneath the number. The M's have also seen the UNDER go 64-43-8 the past few seasons against southpaw starters, 16-9 this year. I expect those numbers to improve tonight. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS on the Run-Line (+1.5 Runs.) With an O/U line of 6.5, this is expected to be a low-scoring game. Naturally, in low-scoring games, every run takes on added importance. That said, I feel that getting an extra +1.5 runs with the home team is providing us with excellent value tonight.

Both starters have been outstanding. Cueto is 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.142 WHIP. Not to be outdone, Capuano is 9-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.097 WHIP. At home, Capuano's numbers are even better. In eight starts here, he's 5-1 with a superb 1.87 ERA.

Note that Capuano pitched well (again) last time out - but suffered a 1-run loss, losing 3-2. That was the fourth of Capuano's last five starts that was decided by a single run. So, while the Dodgers are only 3-2 vs. the moneyline his last five starts, they'd be a perfect 5-0 if they were getting +1.5 runs in all those games.

It should also be noted that each of Capuano's two 2011 starts vs. the Reds were decided by a single run.

Cueto is off a 5-0 loss last time out. The Reds are only 1-4 when he's started against the Dodgers and the only victory was a 1-run (3-2) game. So, they'd be 0-5 if laying -1.5 runs in all those games.

True, Ethier and Kemp remain out. However, the Reds are expected to be without Votto. In a potentially close low-scoring contest, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with Capuano and the Dodgers. *9 Annihilator

I'm playing on Seattle and Baltimore to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total, a 6-3 Seattle victory. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.

Felix Hernandez has been practically unhittable of late. He's off a shutout victory over the Red Sox last time out, striking out a whopping 13 along the way, allowing only five hits.

King Felix had this to say: "This year, this is the best game that I've thrown. I was throwing a lot of strikes and all the pitches were working."

Hernandez's last three starts have all fallen below the total. They had scores of 2-1, 5-1 and 1-0, Seattle winning each. During that stretch, the Mariners' ace had 30 K's vs. just three walks, compiling a remarkable 0.78 ERA.

Not that he typically needs much help - but it should be noted that Hernandez is backed by a Seattle bullpen which has a spectacular 1.03 ERA the last 10 games.

It's tough being a rookie in the AL East. However, Wei-Yin Chan has more than held his own. Even after a tough outing last time out, he's still a very solid 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA on the season.

Chen should enjoy facing the normally light-hitting Mariners. Note that he's 2-0 with a superb 1.29 ERA in three outings against AL West teams, making the most of it when he doesn't have to face some of the big hitting teams in his own division. He'll have the advantage of facing Seattle for the first time.

Note that the UNDER is 9-5-1 in Chen's 15 starts, 5-2 when he pitches on the road. In his last road start, Chen tossed seven shutout innings, winning 2-0 at Atlanta.

The M's entered this series batting an awful .197 here at Safeco. Prior to yesterday's game finishing above the total, they'd seen nine straight games fall beneath the number. The M's have also seen the UNDER go 64-43-8 the past few seasons against southpaw starters, 16-9 this year. I expect those numbers to improve tonight. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Rangers have the better record and the send the bigger name, or at least the more recognizable one, to the mound for Tuesday's opener. However, I believe the White Sox are favored for good reason.

Through two starts, Roy Oswalt is off to a 2-0 start to his career with the Texas Rangers. However, he's been far from dominant. In his first start, Oswalt allowed

Last time out, Oswalt allowed a whopping 13 hits in six innings. Not only was that the most hits that Oswalt has ever allowed but it also matched the most hits that a Texas pitcher has ever allowed, when earning a "W." In fact, Oswalt became the first American League pitcher to allow at least 13 hits, while winning, since back in 2007. Throw in two walks and Oswalt really allowed a lot of baserunners. Through two starts, his 4.26 ERA is somewhat respectable. However, his 1.97 WHIP is very high.

By comparison, Chris Sale has an outstanding 0.97 WHIP. Of course, his 9-2 record and 2.27 ERA are pretty good too!

Last tine out, Sale allowed two runs through seven innings. In his previous start, which was his most recent at home, Sale allowed just four hits through eight shutout innings. Through seven home starts, he's got an exceptional 1.69 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.

While opposing hitters are batting .393 vs. Oswalt thus far, they're only hitting a mere .176 vs. Sale here at Chicago.

In 14 starts, Sale has allowed two earned runs or less 10 times. Not surprisingly, he'll be going to the All Star game.

As Chicago manager Robin Ventura noted of Sale: "It's hard to keep saying the same things over and over again, but he's just a mature kid."

I expect the youngster to get the better of the veteran here as the Sox begin their homestand with a victory. *10 (Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After a stretch that saw them drop five of six, the Brewers really got it together on the weekend. They blew out the Diamondbacks on Saturday and proceeded to beat them in the bottom of the 9th inning on Sunday. With their ace on the mound, I fully expect them to keep the momentum rolling for another day.

Greinke checks in having gone 2-0 with a stellar 2.35 ERA his last three starts, averaging 7 2/3 innings in those games. Those were all on the road though. Now, he's back home where he's 4-0 with a remarkable 1.08 ERA and 0.792 WHIP. In 41 2/3 home innings, Greinke has an awesome 52 K's vs. only eight walks, allowing just a single home run. Not too many pitchers out there with 50+ K's for every HR allowed!

Note that Greinke is 2-0 (team is 3-0) in three starts vs. the Marlins, too.

Zambrano, on the other hand, is 0-2 his last two against the Brewers. He's also 0-2 (Marlins are 0-3) in his last three starts overall, compiling a poor 4.61 ERA and a terrible 2.195 WHIP. In that 13 2/3 innings pitched he's issued 15 walks. That's nearly twice as many as Greinke has allowed in more than 40 innings here at Milwaukee.

The Brewers are a lucrative 41-12 (+21.8) the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.

The Brewers are also a profitable 11-4 against the Marlins the past few seasons. That includes a commanding 6-1 (+4.6) mark at Milwaukee. With Greinke doing his thing, I expect the Brew Crew to improve on those stats Monday evening. *9

I'm playing on LA. I lost with the Dodgers yesterday but I'm coming right back with them today.

The Dodgers are obviously struggling and they surely miss Kemp's bat in the lineup. Missing Ethier doesn't help matters. That said, an advantage on the mound can make up for a lot and I expect the Dodgers to have a MAJOR EDGE on the mound this evening.

Despite not having any "W's" to show for it, Kershaw is off back to back gems. He allowed a combined three runs over 14 innings, striking out 15. While he's only 3-3 in his nine home starts, the Dodgers are 6-3 in those games. Kershaw has a 2.71 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in those nine home starts, averaging a healthy seven innings in each.

Kershaw should be happy to see the Mets. He's made five starts against New York and is a perfect 4-0 (LA is 5-0) with a terrific 1.39 ERA. The Dodgers have won his five starts vs. the Mets by a combined score of 28-7, three of those victories, including both here at LA, coming in shutout fashion.

Gee gets the call for the Mets. Last time out, Gee gave up nine hits and four runs in just five innings. He's 5-6 on the season (Mets are 6-9) with a 4.42 ERA.

While Kershaw has owned the Mets, Gee is 0-1 with an ugly 5.73 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Gee's last start against the Dodgers also saw him matched up against Kershaw. While Kershaw dominated with eight shutout innings, Gee allowed six runs (five earned) in 5 2/3 innings. LA won 6-0.

Even though they beat a left-hander in the opener of this series - and they did so barely - the Mets are still only 11-17 (-4.7) vs. southpaw starters.

I expect Kershaw to again get the better of Gee, as the desperate Dodgers stop the bleeding with a badly needed victory. *9 Main Event