I'm playing on the CHICAGO CUBS. (*Listing Wells, "Action" on Arizona) The Cubs lost a tough one yesterday afternoon, blowing a lead in the 9th inning. I expect them to bounce back this afternoon. (*Note this IS a play, whether its Saunders or Enright for Arizona.)

Wells went just 8-14 last year. However, I feel there's reason to believe that he'll improve on those numbers this season - or, at least, that he'll help earn the Cubs a victory this afternoon.

For starters, his ERA was 4.26 last year and 4.09 at home. That's not great - but its still "respectable" and could have easily led to be a better record.

Also, Wells was 12-10 with an excellent 3.05 ERA in 2009.

Additionally, note that he posted an outstanding 2.10 ERA over 25 2/3 innings in the Cactus League this spring, recording an impressive 23 strikeouts along the way.

Lastly, note that he's 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks in his career. The Cubs won those two games by a combined score of 16-5 and Wells had 18 combined K's with only one walk.

Enright is also coming off a strong spring. Lets not forget that he allowed a whopping 20 home runs in just 99 innings last season. Also, keep in mind that Enright was just 2-3 with a 4.87 ERA on the road last season.

Note that Enright is 0-1 wit a 4.76 ERA vs. the Cubs. His lone start against them resulted in a 6-4 Arizona loss.

Saunders, who was supposed to go yesterday but saw his start postponed, was 9-17 with a 4.47 ERA last season. He was 4-9 on the road. Opposing batters hit .315 against him on the road. Also, note that he was 1-3 with an ugly 6.47 ERA in six afternoon starts.

Saunders' lone start vs. Chicago resulted in a 12-1 Cubs' victory. He gave up five earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

With yesterday's game having been cancelled, note that the Dbax remain an awful 32-60 (-26.9) their last 92 afternoon games.

The Cubs are 7-3 the last 10 times that they were a host in this series, taking each of the last three meetings here. I expect them to pad those stats this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on LA. After the Dodgers grabbed a pair of 1-run victories on Thursday and Friday, the Giants came back and embarrassed them by a 10-0 score yesterday. I expect the Dodgers to respond with a victory.

Looking at the current line and we find that the Giants were a poor 16-26 (-4.5) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range the past few seasons. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Dodgers are 37-19 (+11) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

Zito goes for the Giants. He's recently been dealing with a sore neck and back after being involved in a two-car accident in Los Angeles on Wednesday.

Keep in mind that Zito went 1-10 with a 5.19 ERA in his last 15 games last year and wasn't on the Giants' postseason roster. In Zito's last start at LA, he allowed four runs in four innings, walking four along the way.

While he didn't have a very good spring, Kuroda had a solid 3.39 ERA last season to go along with 159 strikeouts, both career bests.

Kuroda has pitched well (3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP vs. the Giants but did lose his last home start against them. However, he pitched eight complete innings in that game, striking out eight, while allowing three runs. In other words, it wasn't his fault - he just didn't get any run support. (In his previous start vs. the Giants, he outpitched Matt Cain, en route to a 10-3 win.) I expect Kuroda to get considerably more run support here as the Dodgers bounce back and close out the series with a victory. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. These teams have split the first two meetings. Florida won its home opener, but the Mets returned the favor yesterday. The Marlins are still 10-3 the last 13 times they hosted the Mets though (New York hasn't won consecutive games at Sun Life Stadium since Aug. 27-Sept. 25, 2009) and I like them to bounce back and grab this afternoon's rubber game.

Dickey did have an excellent season for the Mets last year. However, its hard to say whether or not the 36-year old knuckleballer, practically from out of nowhere, will be able to do it again. Either way, even when he was pitching well against other teams, he had an ugly 6.38 ERA in three starts vs the Marlins.

Dickey's lone start here at Florida resulted in a 10-3 loss. He gave up five runs in five innings.

On the other hand, Vazquez has an outstanding 0.90 ERA in winning two of his last three starts against New York. Naturally, he'll be anxious to get off to a good start with his new team.

Vazquez was very sharp in his final spring start and I look for him to carry it over into today's start. He limited St. Louis to five hits and one run over 5 1/3 innings, walking only one while striking out four.

Afterwards, Vazquez was quoted as saying: "The last few starts, I felt the life on my fastball is there. I am not worried about my velocity. I'm just worried about location and the life of my pitches. Right now, my pitches have pretty good life on them."

Even with yesterday's victory, the Mets are still a money-burning 13-26 the past few seasons as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. The Marlins, on the other hand, are a respectable 28-18 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Vazquez getting the better of Dickey, I expect them to pad those stats here. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Orioles spoiled the Rays' opener. I expect Tampa to bounce back and even the series here.

Shields gets the call and I expect him to perform well. Last season's numbers weren't where he wanted but he's proven to be more than capable in the past. Shields had his final spring start cancelled due to rain on Monday. However, he came back and threw 30 pitches on Tuesday and that was enough to strike out the likes of Evan Longoria, Johnny Damon and B.J. Upton.

Shields, who had a stellar 1.88 ERA in his four grapefruit league starts, was quoted as saying: "I feel really good, really strong. My last four outings of spring training have been exactly where I want it to be. My delivery is as good as it

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Twins are the defending AL Central Champs and they expect to finally have Justin Morneau in the lineup. However, playing their home opener and with Ricky Romero on the mound, I expect it to be the Jays which start the season with a victory.

These same two pitchers faced each other at the end of last regular season. In that October 1st game, Romero allowed just two runs on six hits, through eight complete innings. Pavano was also solid, just not quite as sharp. He allowed two runs on nine hits, through seven innings. Pavano had 3 K's with 1 walk. Romero had 5 K's and 0 walks. While Pavano escaped with a no-decision, Romero earned the victory.

That was at Minnesota. Romero's home stats were better than Pavano's road numbers too though. Pavano was solid on the road, going 9-7 with a 3.77 ERA. Romero was even better at home though, going 6-4 with a superior 3.27 ERA.

Yes, the Twins are expected to have Morneau back. I'm not expecting any immediate heroics from the former AL MVP though. (He had a .152 average in 10 spring training games.)

The Twins were 79-86 (-3.9) on the road the past couple of seasons. During the same stretch, the Jays were 90-72 (+7.7) at home. That includes a solid 22-14 (+2.6) mark as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

The Jays are 4-2 the last six times that they faced Pavano and they pounded him for six earned runs in both his starts at Toronto last season. Overall, they're 12-4 the last 16 times that they were a host in the series. Behind a quality effort from Romero, I expect them to improve on those stats today. *10

I'm playing on TEXAS. Down 2-0, naturally, this is an absolutely critical game for the Rangers. Its true that teams don't always win these "must win games." Far from it. Its also true that we generally have to pay a little extra for the team in the "must win" role. In this case, however, given the venue, pitching matchup and character of the team, I expect the Rangers to respond with their best effort.

For starters, the Rangers are a far stronger team at home. They were 51-30 here during the season, as compared to only 39-42 on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants aren't as good away from San Francisco.

On of the reasons for the better record here, is that the Rangers are more comfortable hitting in their own park. They averaged 5.3 runs and hit .286 here. True, it can be a good hitter's ballpark. However, opposing teams didn't hit too well here. Visiting teams hit .248 here and averaged only 4.2 runs. Note that those stats are nearly identical to what the Giants typically do on the road.

Returning home also allows the Rangers to get Vladimar Guerrero's bat back in the lineup, as a DH, which is obviously significant. As Texas manager Ron Washington noted: "We get to get all of our weapons in that lineup. It's just comfortable to be back home in front of our fans. We can draw energy from them, and that's what we need."

I respect Jonathan Sanchez and know that he's capable of being very tough. That said, he hasn't been as "nasty" as Colby Lewis during the playoffs. Facing the Rays and Yankees (twice), Lewis is 2-0 with a superb 1.45 ERA and 1.178 WHIP over his last three starts.

True, the Giants have been playing great and they've now won three in a row. However, note that they're a money-burning 21-37 (-17.6) the past few seasons, after winning three straight.

Returning home, in a "must win" situation, I expect the Lewis and the Rangers to bounce back and make things interesting. *10

I'm playing on SF and Texas to finish UNDER the total. With Lee and Lincecum on the mound, yesterday was supposed to be the "pitcher's duel."

Obviously, that didn't pan out. The game had an O/U line of 5.5 and finished with 18 runs! That doesn't mean that we can expect another "slugfest" today though. In fact, I expect the opposite.

Before looking at the starting pitchers, note that the O/U line has climbed all the way from 5.5 to seven. Naturally, that's an extremely significant jump. Instead of losing, one now gets a win if the game finishes with six runs and a 'push' if it lands on seven.

Today, its Cain vs. Wilson. Neither get the recognition of guys like Lee or Lincecum, however, both quietly had excellent seasons. Cain is 14-11 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the season, averaging 6.8 innings per start. He saw the UNDER go 18-15-2. At home, he was 9-4 with an even better 2.60 ERA.

In his last start, Cain tossed seven shutout innings, limiting the Phillies to only two runs. I successfully played on the 'under' in that game and the final score was 3-0. Prior to that, Cain limited Atlanta to a single unearned run, through 6 2/3 innings.

Manager Bruce Bochy said this of Cain: "He's commanding his fastball, and his secondary pitches, he's throwing strikes and he's getting it where he wants."

Wilson didn't fare so well in his last start. However, in his defense, he was pitching at New York and the Yankees were seeing him for the second time in less than a week. He was extremely stingy in his other playoff starts, including limiting Tampa to two hits through 6 2/3 shutout innings on 10/7.

Including that 10/7 result, Wilson has a very solid 3.03 ERA and 1.228 WHIP on the road, averaging 6 1/3 innings per outing. Combine those stats with the fact that the Rangers generally don't score as many runs away from Texas, and we find the UNDER at 11-5 in Wilson's 16 road starts.

Cain made one start against Texas (last season) and was dominant. He allowed just three hits and one run through eight innings. The Giants won 2-1. Meanwhile, while the Giants had seen plenty of Lee, this is Wilson's first start against them. That should work to his advantage.

Even with yesterday's result, the Rangers have seen the UNDER go 11-7 when playing a road game with an O/U line of seven or less. Meanwhile, the Giants have seen the UNDER go 32-24-6 when playing at home with an O/U line of seven or less. I expect those stats to improve. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO on the Run-Line, at +1.5 RUNS. The World Series begins with another great pitching matchup, Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum. Both former Cy Young award winners are in excellent current form and both are capable of dominating each and every time they take the mound. Naturally, its expected to be a low-scoring game. Indeed, the O/U line is just 5.5. I feel that the Giants, who are small underdogs, have an excellent shot at winning the game "outright." However, in a game like that, where runs figure to be at such a premium, getting an extra +1.5 runs to work with becomes that much more valuable.

Not even factoring in them laying an extra -1.5 runs, note that the Rangers are only 6-13 (-8.7) vs. the moneyline, when playing on the road with a line in the 100 to -125 range. During that stretch, the Giants are 5-4 (+1.3) as home underdogs of +100 to +125.

I successfully went against Lincecum in his last start. (He was up against Halladay and the Phillies were in a "must win" spot.) He still pitched very well though, allowing two earned runs (Philly also scored an unearned run against him) on just four hits, through seven complete innings. He had 7 K's and one walk. Overall, he now has a 1.96 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in the playoffs, averaging 7 2/3 innings while recording 29 K's with only five walks.

Again illustrating the importance of runs, in a game like this, Lincecum's last five home starts have all been decided by two runs or less, three of them by a single run. With the run-line price having fallen from its opener, I'm grabbing the +1.5 runs with Lincecum and the Giants. *10

I'm playing on the Phillies and Giants to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series both finished with seven runs. With the series shifting to San Francisco and with yet another pair of highly capable pitchers on the mound, I expect an even lower-scoring affair.

Yes, both Cain and Hamels have had longer layoffs than normal, which can sometimes have a negative effect. However, in this case, I feel that both starters will be just fine. These guys would be 'aces' on a lot of staffs. Both were excellent in their first round start and since then, both have been watching all these other outstanding pitching performances. They'll both be anxious to get back out there and show what they're capable of.

Hamels was absolutely dominant in his lone playoff start vs. the Reds. In that game, he tossed a complete-game 5-hit shutout. He recorded 9 K's and 0 walks, en route to earning a 2-0 victory.

Hamels, the 2008 World Series MVP, was quoted as saying: "Postseason is where it's at. It's the ultimate time to really show what kind of player you are, what kind of pitcher you are. These are the types of games and types of moments when you set foot in spring training it's the ultimate goal for the whole team to go out and enjoy."

For the season, Hamels had a 2.94 ERA, including a very solid 3.02 ERA (1.15 WHIP) on the road. In 104 innings on the road, he had 109 K's with only 30 walks. The UNDER was 11-6 in his road starts and 22-12 overall.

Like Hamels, Matt Cain was very tough in this season's lone playoff appearance. In 6 2/3 innings, he limited the Braves to a single unearned run. Cain was also very stingy at home all season. In 12 starts here, he went 8-4 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.032 WHIP.

Cain was quoted as saying: "You just feel comfortable pitching at home. Just try to relax and try to almost enjoy it and soak it all in, to try to take the nerves off a little bit."

True, its a low O/U line. However, when considering that the Phillies have seen the UNDER go 15-5-2 the last 22 times that they played a game with an O/U line of seven or less, including 10-3-1 on the road, it starts to seem a lot more reasonable. Look for those stats to improve here, as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *10

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the RUN-LINE. Everyone knows that the Phillies are a very good team. With a 2-0 series lead and with Hamels on the mound, they're currently listed as medium-sized road favorites. That hasn't been one of their better roles though. Indeed, they're a money-burning 19-30 (-22.4) the last 49 times that the were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range, including an ugly 4-13 (-14) their last 17 in that role. With the Phillies favored on the "regular" moneyline, we're able to get a very reasonable price on the Reds on the run-line. I believe that offers us the best value here.

As mentioned, the Phillies are tough. Admittedly, Hamels is also tough. While he was only 5-6 on the road, he's had plenty of postseason experience and he's also pitched well here at Cincinnati.

That said, the Reds have been tough at home all season. They were 49-32 here, better than the Phillies 45-36 mark on the road. They've also had plenty of success against southpaw starters, going 34-22 (+9.1).

Cueto may not have pitched in the playoffs, but I believe he will pitch well. He was 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Phillies this season. Cueoto's also got a sparkling 0.96 ERA in his last four starts here at Cincinnati. For the season, he was 6-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.223 WHIP here, most recently allowing one earned run through seven complete innings.

Cueoto was quoted as saying: "I'm going to throw a nice game. I'm going to do my job. That's all I think."

Hamels' lone start against the Reds this season resulted in a 1-0 final. His last start at Cincinnati (May of 2009) was also decided by a single run. The Reds lost Cueoto's start at Philadelphia by one run but they won 7-3 when he pitched at home vs. the Phillies. With the Reds desperate and fighting for their lives, I'm grabbing the +1.5 runs. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. While we saw two of three visiting teams win yesterday, I feel that the fact this game is being played on the West Coast is significant. The Braves were an outstanding 56-25 at Atlanta. However, they were just 35-46 on the road. The Giants were a respectable 43-38 on the road but an excellent 49-32 here at San Francisco. The Giants are only 2-6 their last eight games played at Altanta. However, they're a commanding 9-2 the last 11 times that they hosted the Braves.

I also feel that the Lowe vs. Lincecum matchup will work in the Giants favor. Lowe is a capable veteran with plenty of experience. He's also been pitching very well recently. However, Lincecum is a pitcher taking it to a whole other level. When he's "on," he's in the class of guys like Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. And we saw what those two former Cy Young Award winners did yesterday.

Even in a "down year," Lincecum was still 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.272 WHIP. The Giants were 21-12 (+3.7) in his starts. Note that he has a 1.20 ERA his last two starts, allowing just two runs in 15 innings.

While I've already noted that Lowe has pitched well of late, it should also be mentioned that he was just 6-7 with a very mediocre 4.30 ERA and 1.467 WHIP on the road. The Braves were 7-9 in his road starts.

The Giants are a perfect 4-0 in Lincecum's four career home starts vs. the Braves. They won those games by a combined score of 17-7. Lincecum went a minimum of six innings in all four starts and allowed two earned runs or less in each of them. Overall, he allowed just six earned runs in 29 innings, which translates to a 1.86 ERA. The Giants are 26-14 the last 40 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range and with Lincecum "doing his thing," I look for them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on Philadelphia and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the number. The Reds have played here at Philadelphia a dozen times since the beginning of the 2008 season. Nine of those 12 games, including three of four this season, stayed below the total. With a pair of highly capable pitchers taking the mound, I won't be surprised if Game 1 of their playoff series also proves low-scoring.

Halladay gets the call and he's had yet another superb campaign. For the season, he was 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 250 2/3 innings. That includes a 12-5 mark with a 2.21 ERA here at home, with four complete games.

Not only is he coming off a great season, Halladay is a fierce competitor, one who values and understands his spot in the history books. He made one home start against the Reds this season. You may remember that one. Cincinnati's Travis Wood dominated Philadelphia's lineup, which was depleted by injuries at the time, and took a perfect game into the 9th inning. Yet, Halladay didn't blink. Rather, he tossed nine shutout innings of his own, keeping the game scoreless. The Phillies would eventually win 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th.

While I expect Halladay to "do his thing," run support may well be again prove to be an issue. Since returning from elbow surgery, Volquez's overall numbers are fairly mediocre and his road stats are poor. However, it just took some time for him to get going and, after a brief stint in the minors to work on his mechanics, he's been putting it all together of late.

All four of his September starts were of the "quality" variety and ALL four of them finished UNDER the total. Overall, Volquez allowed just six earned runs through 27 1/3 innings. That translates to an ERA of less than two. Note that he had 27 K's in those 27 innings and that he didn't give up a home run in any of them. His last road start was at Milwaukee on 9/21. He tossed eight complete innings and allowed only three hits and a single earned run.

Volquez knows how important this game is and knows his team is relying on him. While it will be awfully difficult to outpitch Halladay, I do expect him to pitch well. He was quote as saying: "It's an honor for me," Volquez said. "For me it's big because I was out for one year and came back from Tommy John surgery. This is the first game of the playoffs, it's big-time."

Volquez's lone start here at Philadelphia came in June of 2008. He three eight shutout innings with 8 K's and only two walks. The Reds won that game by a score of 2-0.

Looking at some O/U stats and we find that the Phillies have seen the UNDER go 14-4-5 the last 19 times that they played a game with an O/U line of seven or less and that includes a 4-1 mark at home. As for the Reds, they've seen the UNDER go 17-7 their last 24 games played in October and 14-5-1 the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +175 to +200 range. I expect another well-pitched affair. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE on the RUN-LINE (at +1.5 runs.) The A's pounded the M's in yesterday's series opener. The A's are still 1-6 their last seven games though. Tonight, I feel that the value lies with the home team, particularly when we can get an extra +1.5 runs to work with, at a fairly reasonable price.

French gets the call for Seattle and he's pitched very well here. In fact, in five home starts he's gone 3-1 with a stellar 2.57 ERA and 0.971 WHIP, averaging seven innings per start. He allowed four earned runs or less in all five of those starts while also going at least six innings in each. French's last start came on the road, at Tampa. He allowed two runs and earned the "W" in a 6-2 Seattle victory. Note that French's last start vs. Oakland resulted in a 1- run loss.

Cahill has enjoyed a very strong season for the A's. However, while he's been exceptional at home, he's only been mediocre on the road. In 14 road starts, he's gone 6-5 with a 4.17 ERA. The A's are just 1-3 his last four road starts and that five of his last 20 road starts have been decided by a single run.

Cahill's last start came at home - and he got rocked. In four innings, he gave up 12 hits (2 HR's) and seven runs. His last road start was also rough. In five innings, he gave up two home runs and six earned runs.

Note that the A's are 1-3 (Cahill is 0-3) in his four starts vs. Seattle and that the lone victory came by a single run. Also with such a low O/U line, note that the A's are an awful 7-18 (-11.4) the last 25 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of seven or less.

Even with yesterday's loss, the M's are still 16-4 the last 20 times that they hosted the A's, 17-3 if one had been getting +1.5 runs in all those games. *10

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Jays were involved in an emotional game yesterday. Not only were they facing the rival Yankees but it was also their regular season home finale. More importantly, it marked Cito Gaston's final home game as the Jays' manager. Many former players were on hand and there was a pre-game ceremony. Gaston will always be well loved in Toronto (and Canada) and the players responded with a great effort for him. They got good pitching, played strong defense and hit the ball well, earning an 8-4 win.

Tonight's matchup figures to be far more difficult. Yesterday, in addition to playing at home and having the added motivation of trying to "win for Cito," the Jays were matched up against a struggling right-hander, Javier Vazquez. Vazquez entered that game with a 9.23 ERA and 1.973 WHIP over his previous three starts and the Jays wasted little time in jumping all over him.

Today, however, the Jays will be on the road, at one of the most difficult venues in the league. (Opposing teams are 25-52 here this season.) Additionally, they're now taking on an elite pitcher, Francisco Liriano. Making matters worse, Liriano is a southpaw.

With yesterday's victory, the Jays improved to a profitable 70-54 (+19.7) vs. right-handed starters. As I pointed out in Tuesday's winning 'under' play, the last time the Jays faced a southpaw, games against left-handed starters have been an entirely different story. Including that 6-1 loss, where they managed only three hits and one run, the Jays are an awful 12-22 (-8.6) vs. southpaw starters. They're hitting a dismal .212 in those games, averaging a mere 3.4 runs.

The Twins got a solid pitching performance last night, which helped them snap their losing streak. Now, with some positive momentum behind them, they'll look to get Liriano back on track. Some of you will recall that I successfully played against Minnesota the last time that Liriano pitched. That was at Detroit though. Not only are the Tigers tough in their own park but they had Verlander pitching and he's been nearly unbeatable at home.

Liriano's back at home now though (the Twins are 6-1 his L7 starts here) and he should be highly motivated to bounce back with a big effort. Note that he's got a stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 15 starts here. He's averaged nearly seven innings per start here and has 102 K's to just 27 walks. In 15 games here, he's given up only three home runs.

Hill has made only one road start this season and the Jays lost that one by a score of 11-3. He gave up nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. Including that start, his teams are an ugly 2-12 his L14 road starts. Hill also got rocked in his lone career start vs. the Twins. That was back in 2008. He lasted only 3 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs, six of them earned. Hill allowed 13 batters to reach base, giving up 10 hits and walking three. Not surprisingly, he was on the wrong side of a 9-3 loss.

Liriano lost his lone start vs. the Jays. However, that was at Toronto and the opposing pitcher was Roy Halladay. He still pitched very well, allowing just one earned run through six complete innings. I expect him to get the better of Hill here as the Twins start the series off with a victory. *10

I'm playing on KC and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. After losing Monday's series opener by a score of 10-8, Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said this of his starting rotation. "We better get the edge back ... it won't make a difference if we don't pitch better." What happened? His team allowed three runs in the first inning and again allowed 10 for the game. I expect Gardenhire to finally receive some quality pitching for tonight's finale though.

Baker did recent miss some time with tendinitis. However, he's already since gotten a start under his belt and will be anxious to help the staff stop the bleeding here. Baker was solid in his return start. He allowed two runs (only 1 was earned) over five innings. He gave up just four hits and had an impressive seven K's while only walking one batter. Baker's last road start was back at the end of August, at Seattle. He allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings.

Baker has faced the Royals twice this season. He pitched well in one game and poorly in the other. Overall, he's had good success vs. KC over his career though. In 14 starts, he's gone 8-4 with a solid 3.44 ERA and an excellent 0.944 WHIP. The UNDER was 9-5 (or 8-5-1) in those games. Note that five of Baker's six road starts vs. the Royals have produced nine or fewer combined runs. In fact, three of them finished with less than five combined runs.

The Twins bats were cold yesterday. They've now scored just one run in three of their last five games. While there's a chance that Mauer could DH tonight, note that the Twins lineup will definitely be without Thome and Hardy. They'll also be facing a pitcher who has been throwing well.

Hochevar has allowed four or fewer earned runs in five straight starts. He's also allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five home starts. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 4-1 in those games. For the season, Hochevar has a very respectable 3.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in eight home starts, averaging 6 2/3 innings per outing. He's had 40 K's to only 12 walks here, while allowing just four home runs. In his last three starts here, Hochevar has allowed just four earned runs in 18 innings, which translates to a stellar 2.00 ERA. He should be highly motivated to pitch well as he's trying to match a career high in victories. All things considered, I feel the O/U number is generously high and I expect a relatively well-pitched affair. *10

I'm playing on DETROIT. While the Twins have already wrapped up the AL Central, they still have plenty to play for. That's because they'd still like to secure home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs. That said, there's often a natural letdown when a team finds itself in this situation. That wasn't the case on Wednesday, as the Twins were able to take care of business. However, that was at home. Now, they've had a day off for the "division title" to sink in AND they're on the road, at one of the more difficult venues in the league. Making matters worse, they're up against a pitcher who has been practically unbeatable here.

The Tigers, who also had yesterday off, are playing well. They've won five of their last six games. For the season, they're 49-29 here at home. That includes a profitable 12-3 (+8) record when Verlander has started here. In those 15 games, Verlander has averaged 6.9 innings per start, while recording an outstanding 2.51 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. In 104 innings here, Verlander has an impressive 100 K's with only 28 walks.

Verlander has also been excellent lately. Over his last three starts, he's gone 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a spectacular 0.792 WHIP. He's averaged eight innings per start while recording 26 K's and only three walks. He didn't allow a home run in any of those games, either. The Tigers won those games by a combined score of 21-6. Looking back further and we find Verlander at 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his last six starts

The Twins have a pretty good starter of their own taking the mound, as Liriano will get the call. That said, he wasn't nearly as sharp as Verlander in his most recent start. Last time out, he got rocked for five runs in five innings, suffering a 6-2 loss. For the season, he's got a mediocre 4.19 ERA on the road, averaging less than six innings per start.

Liriano's last start here at Detroit also happened to come against Verlander. Liriano lasted only 1 2/3 innings and he gave up seven earned runs.

For all their success this season, the Twins have only been mediocre on the road this season and they've fared poorly as road underdogs of this size. Note that they may not have Joe Mauer again, as he's still recovering from a sore left knee.

The Tigers are still playing hard and they're 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Twins. Given they're 16-3 record in Verlander's last 19 home starts, dating back to last season, I feel that the current price is more than fair. *10

I'm playing on Washington and Houston to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have each finished above the number, although yesterday's game could be considered a 'bad beat' for 'under' players. (The score in that game was 3-1 with two outs in the bottom of the 8th inning.) Either way, I expect a lower-scoring affair this evening.

Rodriguez continues to be extremely consistent for the Astros. In fact, he's allowed four earned runs or less in 11 straight starts and he allowed three or less in 10 of those. He also went a minimum of six complete innings in all 11 of those starts. He has now gone at least six complete innings in 16 straight outings. He did allow three runs vs. the Reds in his last start. However, he also took a no-hitter into the sixth inning of that game. In other words, he's capable of really dominating.

Rodriguez should be pleased to face a Washington lineup which has scored two runs or less in seven of its last 12 games. He's only faced the Nats once this season. He allowed one run and the Astros won 5-1.

Marquis is coming off a disastrous outing at Philadelphia, where he lasted only 1/3 of an inning. That happens every so often, particularly against that type of lineup at that kind of ballpark. (In his defense, it should also be noted that Marquis is Jewish and that he was pitching on "Kol Nidre," the start of "Yom Kipper.") He'll be highly motivated to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to be much better. While his overall numbers are admittedly very poor, note that before the "debacle" at Philadelphia, Marquis had actually been pitching well. In fact, he had a 2.40 ERA his previous five starts, having allowed just eight runs through 30 innings. The UNDER was 3-1-1 in those games.

The Astros are currently listed as small favorites. That's noteworthy as we find the UNDER at 6-1 the last seven times that the Astros played on the road with a line in the +100 to -125 range. During that stretch, the UNDER is 13-6-2 when the Nats have played at home with a line in the +100 to +125 range. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on LA. I won with the DODGERS in their last game and I feel that they've got an excellent shot at making it two in a row here. While thoughts of the playoffs are now a distant memory, Sunday's win showed that the Dodgers haven't quit trying. It was also the type of victory that a team can really build some positive momentum from. I say that as the Dodgers erased an early 6-1 deficit and fought all the way back, against a red hot Colorado team, for a 7-6 victory in extra innings. I expect them to have the edge on the mound for tonight's series opener.

Billingsley has pitched better than his 11-10 record indicates and he's been extremely consistent for many weeks. Over his last 11 starts, he's only allowed four earned runs once. In all 10 other starts, he allowed three or less. Over that 11 games, he allowed only one home run. It should be noted that the one time, during that stretch, that Billingsley allowed four runs ago was at San Diego, two starts ago. However, it should also be noted that he's still 10-6 with a stellar 2.68 ERA lifetime vs. the Padres. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Billingsley's last seven home starts vs. the Padres.

Billingsley was a hard-luck loser in his last start. He pitched very well though, allowing only one run through seven complete innings. That gives him a 2.21 ERA his last three starts. In his most recent home start, he allowed just two unearned runs through eight complete innings. The Dodgers won 4-2. Including that victory, the Dodgers are 4-1 in Billingsley's last five home starts.

Richard is coming off a forgettable outing. He got rocked for 11 hits and eight runs, lasting just three innings. The Padres are 0-3 his last three starts and he's got a high 4.85 ERA and poor 1.665 WHIP on the road.

Richard has had some success vs the Dodgers and he beat them here in August. However, a closer look reveals that he didn't exactly dominate. In fact, he gave up 10 hits, three walks and four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He was just fortunate to benefit from decent run support. Given Billingsley's form in recent weeks, I don't feel Richard will be so fortunate here.

In addition to wanting to "spoil" San Diego's playoff chances, the Dodgers are motivated to try and finish the season above .500, sending Joe Torre out a winner. They're 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the Padres and I look for them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies are absolutely rolling right now. Yesterday, they got a 2-run home run in the bottom of the 9th to win 7-6. That's the kind of momentum-building victory that can really keep a streak going. They're now 7-0 their last seven and 19-4 their last 23. Now, already three games ahead in the East, they've got a chance to really finish the Braves off. With Cole Hamels on the mound, I expect them to start the series off with another victory.

For starters, note that the Braves are 34-41 on the road and that the Phillies are 48-27 at home. Over the last few seasons, the Phillies are 39-19 (+7.5) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.

While he had some trouble with the Braves earlier this season, Hamels is throwing much better now than he was then. In fact, he ranks among the very hottest pitchers in baseball right now. Over his last four starts, he has allowed just one earned run and 16 hits. That's over a span of 28 2/3 innings. That translates to a 0.31 ERA! During that stretch, he had 31 K's, including 13 in his last start. For the season, Hamels has a 2.66 ERA and 1.105, in 15 home starts.

Phillies closer Brad Lidge recently said this of Hamels: "He's locked in right now. It's fun to see. He has complete command and confidence with all his pitches."

Unlike Hamels, Jurrjens has had some trouble recently. He's 1-2 with a poor 6.32 ERA and 1.723 WHIP his last three starts. The Braves have lost his last two starts by a combined score of 17-4. For the season, he's 1-4 with an ugly 5.81 ERA in 10 road starts.

Given the venue and the current form of the starting pitchers, I feel that the price on the favorite is more than reasonable. *10

I'm playing on LA. The Rockies are red hot. In fact, yesterday's 12-2 victory was their third straight and it brought them to 12-2 their last 14 games. With the Dodgers currently struggling, many will expect the Rockies to keep on rolling here. The Dodgers haven't been swept in a 3-game home series by the Rockies since 2007 though. And, as they say, "momentum is the next day's starting pitcher..." With Kershaw on the mound, I expect the Dodgers to have a significant edge on the mound and look for them to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

Kershaw comes off a complete game 4-hit shutout. He didn't walk a single batter and the Dodgers won 1-0. That gives him a terrific 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's got a very solid 2.85 ERA and 1.191 WHIP.

In addition to being in excellent current form, Kershaw is also 3-0 with an outstanding 1.04 ERA in four outings against Colorado this year. In five career home starts vs. the Rockies, he's got an incredible 0.58 ERA. In fact, entering today's game, he's got a 29-inning home scoreless streak in tact, against the Rockies.

While he has also enjoyed success against today's opponent, Hammell hasn't been nearly as consistent as Kershaw. He had been pitching well for a stretch. However, last time out, he gave up 10 hits and four runs in just four innings. He was quoted as saying: "I think I got ambushed tonight. They came out and were swinging early. They were aggressive early and I kind of played right into their hands."

For the season, Hammell is 3-6 with a poor 5.15 ERA on the road.

For all their problems, the Dodgers are still a profitable 49-29 (+9.3) the past few seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. That includes a 16-9 record in that role this season. With Kershaw "doing his thing," I expect them to bounce back from yesterday's embarrassing loss and close out the series with a victory. *10

I'm playing SEATTLE on the RUN LINE. Here, we're getting a very reasonable price on Seattle at +1.5 runs in a game in which the Mariners should have a significant advantage on the mound.

French is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.879 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he 3-1 with an outstanding 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in four home starts. In all three home victories, he went at least seven innings and allowed no more than one run.

Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has a terrible 7.85 ERA his last three starts. He's allowed at least four earned runs in all three of those starts, including eight in his last one.

Matsuzaka has made five career starts here at Seattle and the Red Sox won only two of them. Note that all five games were decided by two runs or less and that three of them were decided by a single run.

While they lost yesterday's opener, the M's have played the Red Sox fairly tough here in recent seasons, as the teams are now 10-10 the last 20 meetings at Seattle. If taking Seattle at +1.5 in all those games, one would have been 12-8. With French getting the better of Matsuzaka, I expect the M's to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Brewers won yesterday. They still only managed two runs though. That was better than their previous two games, as they'd been blanked in each of those. Tonight, the Brewers find themselves up against a red-hot pitcher. I expect their offensive struggles to continue for another night.

Myers goes for the home team and he's been outstanding lately. Indeed, he's 3-0 with a superb 1.76 ERA in his last six starts. For the season, he's 11-7 with a very solid 2.91 ERA. A closer look reveals that he's a perfect 6-0 in his 12 home starts. He's averaged better than seven innings in those 12 starts and has a stellar 2.23 ERA. The Astros were a highly profitable 10-2 (+8.7) in those games. In his last start, Myers tossed seven shutout innings. He allowed only three hits and had eight K's with just one walk. He earned the "W" in a 4-0 Houston victory.

In three career home starts against the Milwaukee (all were with Philadelphia) Myers is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Two of those were complete games.

Narveson has also pitched well recently. That said, he still got a 5.20 ERA on the season and he's averaged less than six innings per start. Narveson faced the Astros once this season and he lasted just four innings. He gave up eight hits and four runs, en route to taking a 5-0 loss.

While they've had some real trouble at Milwaukee, the Astros are 5-1 the last six times that they hosted the Brewers, including 3-0 this season. They won those games by a combined score of 16-2.

The Brewers have had trouble as small road underdogs. They're 4-9 (-4.6) as road underdogs of +100 to +125 and 7-14 (-4.6) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range.

On the other hand, the Astros have fared very well as home favorites in this range. They're a profitable 11-3 (+7) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Behind another quality effort from Myers, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Orioles won again yesterday and have certainly been a different team under Showalter. With a red hot pitcher on the mound, I expect the Tigers to cool them off this evening though.

Max Scherzer gets the call and he's got an outstanding 1.72 ERA in his past eight starts. For the season, he's 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 13 home starts. It's also worth noting that he's lasted at least seven complete innings in eight consecutive home starts.

Scherzer has faced the Orioles only once. In that July 7 outing, he allowed only a single run through seven innings. That translates to a 1.29 ERA. Note that Detroit, which won that game by a score of 4-2, was laying a price of -225. Now, as Baltimore is playing better, we're getting a far more reasonable price on Scherzer and the Tigers.

Guthrie hasn't faced the Tigers yet this season but the Orioles were 0-2 in his two 2009 starts against Detroit. Overall, he's got a poor 4.66 ERA and 1.552 WHIP vs. the Tigers for his career.

Like many Baltimore pitchers, Guthrie has been pitching well lately. He's still just 3-7 (4.02 ERA, 1.362 WHIP) on the road though, with the Orioles going a money-burning 4-10 (-2) in his 14 road starts.

Recent results nothwithstanding, the Tigers are still the much better team in this matchup. Keep in mind that the Tigers are still 46-27 at home while the O's are still 24-46 on the road.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Tigers are still 12-5 the last 17 times that they hosted the Orioles. They're also a profitable 11-3 the last 14 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Behind another quality performance from Scherzer, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Rangers won at Toronto yesterday while the Yankees had the day off. One might assume that would favor the Yankees. Surprisingly, New York is just 27-29 (-13.5) the past 56 times that it played with a day off. As for the Rangers, they're 3-0 the last three times that they played their first game back home, after having just finished a road trip. On 8/23, having just returned home, they beat Minnesota 4-0, outhitting the Twins by a 10-1 margin. On 8/10, they returned home to beat these same Yankees. Prior to that, on 7/22, they returned home to beat the Angels.

Overall, the Rangers are 43-26 here at home, better than the Yankees' 38-28 mark on the road. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Rangers figure to have an edge on the mound.

Wilson gets the call and he's 14-6 with a very solid 3.15 ERA and 1.215 WHIP. In 28 starts, note that he's only given up eight home runs. That includes an extremely impressive 10-2 record with a 3.20 ERA and 1.184 WHIP, here at home. That Rangers are a lucrative 21-7 (+12.3) in Wilson's 28 starts, including 13-3 here at home. In his last home start, he outpitched Duensing and the Twins, earning a 4-3 victory. Speaking of 4-3 victories, note that Wilson's lone home start vs. New York also resulted in a 4-3 win.

Wilson figures to get some run support here. Vazquez had a 6.69 ERA from July 21-Aug. 21st. That was enough to get him dropped from the rotation. He returned last weekend but was hardly impressive, allowing five runs, four walks and two home runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Girardi was quoted as saying: "He did OK. My plan is for him to stay in the rotation. I can't tell you what's going to happen. There are no guarantees in this game." Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Including last weekend's result, Vazquez now has a dismal 8.48 ERA and 2.228 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's 8-9 with a 5.23 ERA as a starter. He last pitched here exactly one month ago and that start was the "last straw" that led to his leaving the starting rotation. In 4 1/3 innings, he allowed six runs.

The Rangers are 16-7 the last 23 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Wilson getting the better of Vazquez, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the RUN-LINE. The Reds have dropped the first two games of this series and badly need to avoid getting swept. While I feel that they've got an excellent shot at closing out their road trip with a victory, I also believe there a number of reasons to lay the extra 'juice' and take them at +1.5 runs (on the run-line) instead.

Wood had a bad start at San Francisco a few starts. That was the exception rather than the norm though and he responded in a big way last time out. With his team badly needing a win and playing a huge game against the division-rival Cards, Wood outpitched Wainwright. Wood allowed just a single unearned runs through seven innings. The Reds won 6-1. (Wood even hit a home run.)

Wood is now 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in 10 road starts. The Reds were a profitable 8-2 in those games and opposing batters hit a mere .197. Note that one of the two losses was a 1-0 loss at Philadelphia, vs. Roy Halladay and the Phillies. In other words, if getting the Reds at +1.5 in all 10 of Wood's road starts, one would be 9-1.

Speaking of 1-0 games, Wood's only career start vs. the Rockies resulted in a 1-0 loss.

It should also be noted that Wood has been very tough in 'day' games. In six daytime starts, he's gone 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA.

Hammel gets the call for the Rockies. Like Wood, he's been pitching well lately and has had a solid season. Also, like Wood, he's seen all his career starts vs. today's opponent decided by a single run. His two starts vs. Cincinnati finished with scores of 4-3 and 3-2.

Hammel has made 18 starts since the beginning of June and seven of them were decided by only one run.

Also, even including yesterday's 9-2 "blowout," this series has still seen five of the last 10 games decided by a single run.

The Reds closed out their last road trip with a victory (was a 1-run game) on 8/25. Prior to that, they closed out their previous road trip with a victory, at Chicago, on 8/8. Wood was on the mound for that 11-4 victory. With Wood back on the mound here, I feel that the Reds have a great shot at 'doing it again.' *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Yesterday was a touch matchup for the Diamondbacks, as Tim Lincecum was on the mound for the Giants. Today, however, the Diamondbacks have a starter in much better current form than the on the Giants will have. I expect them to bounce back and snap their 4-game skid.

The Diamondbacks send Daniel Hudson to the mound and he's been superb since coming over from Chicago. In seven starts, he's gone 4-1 and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a single start. He's also gone at least six innings in all seven of those starts, going seven or more in six of them. Overall, he's allowed just 11 runs in 49 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.99 ERA. His teams are now 8-3 his last 11 starts. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.80 ERA with 21 K's in 20 innings.

While Hudson has been on fire, the opposite has been true of Barry Zito. Indeed, the veteran is 0-7 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 10 starts and he hasn't made it past the fourth inning in any of his last four starts. He's 0-3 with a terrible 12.70 ERA and 2.469 WHIP his last three starts. One of those came against these same Diamondbacks. Zito allowed nine runs, seven of them earned, in 3 2/3 innings. Arizona won by a score of 11-3. Hudson was also the opposing starter in that one. He allowed two runs in seven innings. While that was Hudson's lone start against the Giants, Zito is now 3-7 with a poor 5.33 ERA and ugly 1.706 WHIP vs. Arizona.

True, the Diamondbacks are playing out the string while the Giants are battling for first in the West. That's kept the line generously low though. Given the current form of the starting pitchers, it could easily be much higher. I feel that provides us with excellent value. *10

I'm playing on DETROIT. The White Sox are on a roll and are off back to back comeback wins. Sunday saw them rally in the 9th inning to come from behind and beat Boston. Yesterday, they erased a deficit to force extra innings, eventually beating the Tigers by a 5-4 score. I expect their good fortune to come to an end here though.

The Tigers send Verlander to the mound. More often than not, when playing here at Detroit, that means a victory. Indeed, the Tigers are a profitable 10-3 (+6) in Verlander's 13 home starts. During that stretch, Verlander has a stellar 2.63 ERA and 1.146 WHIP. He's averaged 6.8 innings per start here and has an impressive 82 K's to just 26 walks. In his last home start, Verlander allowed just one run through eight complete innings. That brings him to 7-1 his last eight here.

On the other hand, Garcia has a poor 5.10 ERA and 1.507 WHIP on the road, averaging less than six innings per road start. He has the same amount of walks (26) on the road that Verlander does at home, but only half as many (41) strikeouts. Note that Garcia lasted only four innings in his last start, leaving with a tight back.

True, Garcia has an impressive record against the Tigers and he's fared well against them this season. However, it's also true that they've seen him four times already this season. Seeing him for the fifth time, the hitters are becoming more and more familiar with him.

On the other hand, Verlander hasn't faced Chicago since last season. Note that he did have a 1.62 ERA in winning both his home starts against the White Sox last season.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Tigers are still 43-26 at home, including 10-4 as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Behind another big game from Verlander, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Both these teams badly need a victory. The Dodgers lost last night and are now 2-6 their last eight games. They're eight games back of the division leaders and can't afford to fall further back. The Padres are actually still in first place in the West. However, they lost again yesterday afternoon and have now dropped 10 straight. Clearly, they should be desperate to snap their skid. While its debatable about which team "needs" a victory more, playing at home and with an edge on the mound, I expect the Padres to be the team that temporarily rights the ship.

Latos has allowed one run in each of his last two starts. Remarkably, he's now allowed two earned runs or less in 14 straight starts. He's the first pitcher to do so since Greg Maddux accomplished the feat back in the early 1990s. During that stretch, he's 8-1 with an exceptional 1.51 ERA. Note that he went a minimum of six innings in 12 of those 14 starts, going at least five innings in all 14 of them.

Latos, who strikes out more than an inning, had 10 K's last time out. Over his last three starts, he has an impressive 26 K's in 20 innings, walking only four.

Padilla's numbers aren't nearly so impressive. He did pitch well vs. these same Padres a few starts ago. However, since then, he's been rocked. Two starts ago, he allowed four runs in five innings vs. the Phillies. Last time out, he was far worse. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings and gave up eight runs. He now has a horrible 6.41 ERA in nine road starts. The Dodgers were a money-burning 2-7 in those games.

While the price may seem a bit steep, for a team on a 10-game losing streak, given Latos' amazing run, I feel it could easily be higher. Even with all their recent struggles, the Padres are still a terrific 9-1 the last 10 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. With Latos getting the better of Padilla, as he did back in late July, I expect the Padres to finally earn a victory. *10

I'm playing on KC. We don't normally find the Royals laying this large a price against a team like the Tigers. However, in this case, given the venue and pitching matchup, I feel that the higher line is justified. In fact, it could easily be even higher.

Greinke hasn't had the amazing year that he did last year. He's still been solid though and he's currently in excellent form. Over his last four starts, he's gone 1-0 with a stellar 2.10 ERA. He's gone eight complete innings in three of those four starts. His last two home starts have both resulted in KC victories. The Royals won by scores of 3-2 and 2-1.

Greinke has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Tigers, particularly recently. Indeed, he's 4-1 with a commanding 0.92 ERA his last seven starts vs. Detroit. Note that the Tigers haven't hit a home run in any of their last nine games against Greinke, a span of 60 innings. The Tigers haven't seen him since back in the spring.

After his last start, Cleveland's manager Manny Acta said this of Greinke: "Greinke is so darned tough. It's not just his velocity. It's his off-speed stuff and how he locates it, too."

Unlike Greinke, Bonderman is not in good form. In fact, he's got an awful 7.41 ERA his last three starts. His last start came against these same Royals, which should work in KC's favor. He was actually solid in that start, although far from dominant. In six innings, he allowed eight hits and three runs. That was at home though, where he and the Tigers are much better. On the road, Bonderman is just 2-5 with a terrible 6.83 ERA on the season. He's been especially brutal on the road lately, going 1-4 with a dismal 8.68 ERA in his last five road starts.

As if he didn't have enough problems when healthy, note that Bonderman missed his last start due to "inflammation around his right rib cage."

It should also be noted that the Tigers may be without Miguel Cabrera as he left yesterday's game at Minnesota with left biceps tendinitis. (He's only 3 for 16 against Greinke the past 2 years anyway.)

One normally assumes that the Tigers are the better hitting club. However, the Royals actually hit much better at home than the Tigers do on the road. Although still below .500, the Royals home record (30-35) is far better than Detroit's 23-43 mark on the road.

With Greinke in top current form, I expect him to get the better of Bonderman and for the Royals to start this series with a victory. *10
(***Note: This play lists Greinke only. If Bonderman can not go, Alfredo Figaro would go for Detroit. If this happens, it would still be a play for us on KC. ***)

I'm playing on SEATTLE. These teams are both playing out the string, as thoughts of the playoffs are ancient history. Both teams lost again yesterday, both suffering 'tough' losses. Seattle outhit the Angels 10-5 but still managed to lose 4-2. After falling behind 1-0 in the first inning, the Mariners tied the game in the third. They briefly held a 2-1 lead before the Angels reclaimed it in the 7th inning and added an insurance run in the eighth. Cleveland's loss was arguably even more difficult to swallow. Not only were the Indians trying to avoid a sweep, they held a lead from the 4th inning right until the 8th. They got a great game from Carrasco, in his 2010 debut, but squandered it by allowing four runs in the 8th and another in the 9th. Off that difficult setback, they then had to travel across the country to get ready for this series.

Fister goes for the Mariners and he's been excellent at home all season. In 13 starts here, he's got a stellar 2.99 ERA and 1.053. He's averaged 6 2/3 innings in his starts here and has walked only 12 batters, less than one per game. Fister hasn't received much run support though and that was the case again his last start. Fister went seven innings and allowed only one run. However, the Mariners couldn't manage a single run and lost 1-0. Fister should get some better run support here though.

While it didn't translate to many runs, the Mariners did manage 29 hits in the 3-game series with the Angels, pounding out nine, 10 and 10 in the three games. That was against some fairly tough Angel pitching. Now, the M's will face Josh Tomlin, who brings a 4.91 road ERA to the table. Tomlin got the win in his last start. However, he was far from dominant. Facing KC, he allowed eight hits and walked four batters, in just five innings. He had only one strikeout and gave up three runs. That gives him a 5.62 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his last three starts.

The Indians are just 24-41 on the road this season and they've struggled as road underdogs of this size. Coming off what managed Manny Acta described as "tough series" and now flying across the country to face a pitcher who has been "tough" at SafeCo all season, I expect their road woes to continue for another day. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. Momentum can change quickly in baseball. The Nationals entered yesterday's game on a roll. The Marlins entered yesterday's game having lost three in a row. The Marlins managed to snap that skid with a 1-0 victory in the bottom of the 10th inning. I believe that it was the type of victory that can really build some positive momentum for the Marlins. At the same time, it was also a potentially deflating loss for the Nationals.

Any time you lose a 1-0 game, its a bit tough to take. Yesterday's 1-0 loss was arguably tougher on the Nats than some though. They got an absolute gem from Zimmerman, in just his second start back from Tommy John Surgery. The Nats also squandered a chance to take the lead in the top of the 10th, only to see the Marlins win on a very close play at the plate in the bottom of the inning.

In addition to playing at home and now having the momentum in their corner, the Marlins should have the pitching matchup in their favor.

Volstad and Olsen just opposed each other on 8/11, at Washington. Olsen was horrible (7 runs in 1 2/3 innings!) that day and the Marlins won by a score of 9-1. In five starts vs. the Marlins, he has an awful 6.93 ERA and 1.702 WHIP. His teams were 1-4 in those games.

Volstad, on the other hand, is now 3-0 vs. the Nationals this season. In this season's lone home start vs. the Nats, he tossed a complete game and allowed only four hits and one run. He had eight K's and only walked one batter. The Marlins won 7-1.

Since Volstad beat Olsen on 8/11, the Marlins have gone 2-1 in Volstad's starts. During that time, the Nats have gone 0-3 in Olsen's starts, getting outscored by a combined 20-4 margin.

With Olsen being a left-hander, it should be noted that the Marlins have enjoyed remarkable success vs. southpaw starters. In fact, they're 14-3 their last 17 vs. southpaws, improving to a highly profitable 79-55 (+29.7) the past few seasons.

In addition to being excellent as home favorites in this range, the Marlins have dominated this series. Yesterday's victory brought the Marlins to 35-14 the last 49 meetings including 19-7 the last 26 here at Florida. Off yesterday's momentum-building victory, I expect them to continue that series domination here. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. These teams have home/away records which are nearly a mirror image of each other. The Rockies are 25-40 on the road. The Giants are 40-26 at home. I expect the Giants to again have the advantage.

While both teams hit very well in winning yesterday's games, the Giants have been scoring more runs over the past couple of weeks. They entered yesterday's game averaging six runs per game and hitting .290, over their last seven games. The Rockies entered yesterday's game averaging 4.4 runs and hitting .252. For the season, the Rockies are hitting a mere .226 on the road, averaging only 3.6 runs in those games.

Sanchez is 5-4 with a respectable 3.93 ERA and 1.282 WHIP in 13 home starts. Over that stretch, he's averaged slightly better than a strikeout per inning, recording 76 K's to just 35 walks. The Giants were 8-5 in those games and are 16-10 in his 26 starts overall. That includes a 10-0 San Francisco victory the last time that Sanchez started against Colorado.

Note that SF is 2-0 in Sanchez's last two starts, winning by a combined score of 21-7.

While he has fared well vs. the Giants in his career, De La Rosa is 1-2 with a poor 5.74 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in his five road starts this season. The Rockies were 1-4 in those games.

Note that the Rockies are in one of their worst roles here, as we find them at a money-burning 6-17 (-10.4) the last 23 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range.

Yesterday's big victory snapped a losing streak and was exactly what the Giants needed. I expect them to build some positive momentum from that win and look for them to start the new series with another victory. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. I had the Rays yesterday and they rewarded me with an extra-inning victory. In my analysis, I noted that both starting pitchers were in excellent form but that the Rays' bullpen and the fact that they were playing at home gave them the advantage. Here's what I had to say:

"....While its hard to argue between Buchholz and Garza, note that the Rays have a significant advantage in the bullpen department. Tampa relievers have a combined 3.41 ERA and 1.169 WHIP at home. Boston relievers have a combined 5.07 ERA and 1.491 WHIP on the road. True, this season's Rays have come to be known more for their success on the road. They're still an excellent 39-25 at home though and that brings them to a highly profitable 153-81 (+32.2) here the past few seasons. During that same stretch, the Red Sox have gone just 115-116 (-11.6) on the road...."

That proved to be the case as the Rays used their "last bats" and strong bullpen to their advantage. That was the type of victory that can really build some positive momentum. That's exactly what I expect from the Rays here.

Neither of today's pitchers has been as red hot as yesterday's and both have fairly similar stats on the season. Shields has been a little better his last two starts though. He's allowed just three earned runs in 13 innings (2.08 ERA), recording an impressive 16 K's to go along with only two walks. Lackey, on the other hand, has allowed seven runs in 15 innings, over his last two starts.

While Lackey got the better of Shields at Boston, back in late June, note that the Red Sox are a money-burning 4-8 (-4.8) when Lackey has started on the road.

On the other hand, Shields started off poorly at home, but he's gone 3-1 with a superb 2.42 ERA in his last four home starts. Joe Maddon said this of Shields: "He's been a rock for us the last several years. He's going to really get on a nice run."

Overall, the Rays are now an impressive 16-5 their last 21 games here.

While the Red Sox are desperate to get back in the race, I would argue that the Rays are every bit as hungry to step on them while they have the change. The Rays are a profitable 38-20 (+10.3) the last 58 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect Shields to continue his recent strong home pitching, avenging the June loss and helping the Rays close out the series with an important victory. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Orioles managed to score the upset in yesterday's opener and they've had plenty of success against the Angels. In fact, if LA had taken care of business with the Orioles, it would be a lot closer to contending for the playoffs. That said, I expect the Angels to bounce back here.

Kazmir has a respectable 3.80 ERA in four starts since returning from fatigue in his pitching shoulder. His last two starts have come vs. Tampa and at Boston. Both the Rays and Red Sox can really hit the ball. Prior to that, he faced Toronto, the team with the most home runs in baseball and pitched at Detroit, where the Tigers have really hit well. Now, he faces an Oriole team which entered the series averaging a mere 3.6 runs per game on the road, while hitting .250.

Note that the Orioles hit only .243 and average just 3.3 runs vs. southpaw starters. They're an ugly 14-27 their last 41 vs. left-handed starters.

Also, note that there's a possibility that Kazmir will not have to face Adam Jones and/or Brian Roberts. Jones' status remains unknown because of a sore left shoulder. Roberts could miss today's game after straining his left hip in yesterday's win.

Kazmir figures to get some run support. Millwood is 1-8 with a terrible 6.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 12 road starts. The Orioles were 1-11 (-9.2) in those games and are 7-18 in his 25 starts overall. Last time out, Millwood gave up six runs in six innings. He's now lost three straight starts and each of his last six decisions.

For all this season's problems, for some reason, the Angels still seem to come up big on Saturdays. Last Saturday, they beat the Twins 9-3. The previous Saturday, they beat the Jays 7-2. Overall, they're 15-5 their last 20 Saturday games. (Baltimore is 6-15 on Saturday games in same stretch.) I expect Kazmir to get the better of Millwood and look for the Angels to bounce back with a much-needed victory. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Twins grabbed yesterday's series opener and the majority of the betting public will likely expect them to also take this afternoon's contest. I expect the Mariners to have the advantage though.

As noted a number of times this season, Fister has been a much better pitcher at home than he has been on the road. Away from Seattle, he's gone 1-5 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. However, here in the Pacific-Northwest, he's gone 3-4 with a very solid 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Fister's last start here was on August 9th, vs. Oakland. He allowed one run in six innings, recording five K's to just one walk. He earned the victory and the Mariners won by a score of 3-1.

With this being a day game, its also worth noting that Fister has been better in the afternoon than he has been in the evening. At night, he's got a 4.09 ERA. In the day, he's got a 3.10 ERA. Note that in five daytime starts, a span of 29 innings, he's only given up one home run. Fister's last daytime start was back on July 25th, vs. Boston. Fister allowed only two runs but didn't factor in the decision. The M's won by a score of 4-2 though.

Blackburn was solid last time out. In seven innings, he allowed eight hits and three runs. He got outpitched by Harden though and the Twins were beaten by Texas. Prior to that, Blackburn had been in the minors for a stint. That's because he'd been absolutely horrible for an extended stretch. In fact, after he got rocked for five runs in 3 2/3 innings here at Seatte on June 1st, Blackburn proceeded to go on a 1-6 streak with a 9.88 ERA. For the season, including the 7-1 loss here at Seattle, he's a terrible 2-7 with a dismal 9.12 ERA and 2.027 WHIP in 10 road starts. Clearly, he's had real problems.

With this being a day game, its also worth noting that Blackburn has been worse in the afternoon than he has been in the evening. In 60 innings at night, he has allowed seven home runs and has a 5.64 ERA. However, in 50 innings during the day, he has a much higher 7.51 ERA and has allowed a whopping 11 home runs. Opposing batters are hitting .351 against him, during the day.

Note that Suzuki and Figgens, Seattle's top two hitters, are a combined 17 of 31 (.548) vs. Blackburn.

While the Twins have obviously been a much better team overall, there isn't that much difference between their road record (34-33) and Seattle's home record of 29-33. Given Fister's success here and Blackburn's problems on the road, I feel that we're getting excellent value with the home team. *10

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Astros enter this game as the hotter team and off an unlikely 4-game sweep of the Phillies. Recent games notwithstanding, the Mets (37-24) have been far stronger at home than the Astros (26-36) have been on the road though. I expect them to have the advantage this evening.

Pelfrey gets the call and he's been outstanding lately. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He's 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA at home for the season. He'll have the advantage of not having faced Houston in quite some time. His last two starts vs. the Astros came in 2007 and 2008. Pelfrey allowed only three runs in 14 1/3 innings and his teams won by a combined score of 20-4.

Figueroa has also pitched well lately. He's made two recent starts (both no-decisions) and the Astros won both of them. That said, there's a reason why he's not normally a starter. He's been in the league for a decade and has never made more than 13 starts. Working to Figueroa's disadvantage, he just faced the Mets 11 days ago.

The Astros have not fared well as road underdogs in this range. Over the past few seasons, they've gone 22-36 (-5.8) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. The Astros haven't had much recent success here at New York either.

The Mets are a perfect 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Astros. Looking back further and we find them at 15-5 the last 20 times that the teams faced each other here in New York. With Pelfrey in excellent current form and seeing Figueroa for the second time in less than two weeks, I expect them to continue their homefield dominance in the series. *10

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Tigers may be mathematically closer to a playoff spot (neither team will make it) than the Jays, however, its the Jays who have the better record. Note that Toronto's home record of 34-27 is significantly stronger than Detroit's dismal 20-39 mark on the road.

The Tigers had been rolling. However, their winning streak came to an end yesterday. They blew an 8th inning lead vs. the Royals and eventually lost in extra innings. That type of loss can be demoralizing. That's particularly true in this case, as the Tigers were just starting to think they might had a glimmer of hope to get back in the playoff race. Of course, the Tigers have struggled on the road this entire season, regardless of the situation.

The Jays are coming off a solid 6-3 win over the Yankees yesterday. That earned them a 2-1 series victory. Note that the Jays are 7-3 the last 10 times that they were home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. They're also a lucrative 55-44 (+14.2) their last 99 vs. right-handers.

I successfully played on the Tigers the last time that they were matched up against Romero. That 7/22 game was played at Detroit and saw the Tigers win by a score of 5-2. At the time, I said this of Romero: "...he's been much better at home. When pitching in Toronto, Romero is 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting only .192 against him there. However, on the road, he's just 3-4 with a poor 4.71 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .290 against him on the road..."

Romero's numbers have changed a bit since I said that of him last month. However, he's still been much better at home. He's now 5-5 with a 4.17 ERA on the road and 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA at home. Opposing hitters bat .218 against him here.

Admittedly, Scherzer has pitched very well recently. However, like most Tigers, if we look at his stats for the season we find that he's been much been at home than he has been on the road. At home, he's gone 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA. On the road, he's 2-6 with a 4.67 ERA.

Romero's lone career home start vs. the Tigers resulted in a 6-2 Toronto victory. Romero tossed six solid innings, en route to earning the "W." The Jays are 11-7 their last 18 home games vs. the Tigers and 13-7 their last 20 home games overall. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. As most know, the Rays have been very strong on the road this season. They've also already won the first two games of this series. The Angels have never been swept by the Rays here though. I feel that they'll have the advantage and I expect them to bounce back and earn a much needed victory.

Haren checks in off a poor start and with a losing record overall. He's been solid at home though. In 15 home starts, he's averaged nearly seven innings per outing and has a 3.97 ERA and 1.245 WHIP. Haren has allowed four earned runs or less in 12 straight home starts, dating back to his days at Arizona. That includes allowing three or less in nine of his last 10 home starts. With 101 K's and only 18 walks in 102 home innings, he's also a guy who is capable of dominating.

The Rays know what Haren is capable of. Haren has faced Tampa seven times. He's allowed four earned runs or less in all seven of those games and he allowed three or less in six of them. He also went a minimum of six complete innings in all seven of those games, averaging greater than seven. Haren's teams were 5-1 the last six of those games. In three career home starts vs. the Rays (all with Oakland) he allowed a mere four earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.54 ERA. Not surprisingly, Haren's team was 3-0 in those games, winning by a combined score of 27-8. Overall, Haren has a stellar 2.74 ERA and an outstanding 0.811 WHIP vs. Tampa.

Haren figures to be highly motivated for a strong performance and I like how he's holding himself accountable. He knows his team badly needs a victory and he admitted to being "embarrassed by his last outing. He was quoted as saying: "I feel bad. I'm embarrassed. The way I've thrown the ball, it's just unacceptable. I feel bad for the guys. I'm supposed to be better than this. I am better than this..." Naturally, he'll be looking to back up his words.

Niemann is also very capable. That said, he's got a poor 5.51 ERA and 1.711 WHIP vs. the Angels. Additionally, he's making his first start in roughly three weeks, having been on the disabled list with a shoulder strain.

The Rays, who are playing the final leg of seven games on the road, have already enjoyed a great trip. The Angels, however, are desperate for a victory. I expect Haren to bounce back with a far better effort and for the Angels to improve on their highly profitable 89-43 (+47.1!) record in afternoon games, the past few seasons. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Cubs got the "post-Piniella era" off to a great start, earning a convincing 9-1 victory. Keep in mind that this is still a team which is just 24-36 on the road though. By comparison, the Nationals' 31-28 home record looks pretty good. I expect the Nats to have the advantage on the mound this evening.

Lannan gets the call for the home team. Since returning from the minors, he's been pitching very well. Since being recalled, he's gone 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in four starts and 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP his last three. He allowed just two runs in each of those three starts, averaging greater than six innings per outing. Over the three starts, he had just four walks.

A look at his ERA shows that Zambrano has also been pitching well recently. He's got a 2.70 ERA his last three starts. A closer look reveals that he's been rather fortunate to have such a low ERA in those games though, as he also has a very high 1.80 WHIP. That's been primarily due to a lack of control. In his last start, Zambrano walked six batters. That gives him a whopping 15 walks in his last three starts. (By comparison, Lannan has only allowed 15 walks in all eight of his home starts.)

For the season, Zambrano is 3-4 (Cubs are 3-5) with a dismal 6.88 ERA and 1.84 WHIP on the road. While his career numbers vs. the Nationals/Expos are solid, note that he got rocked the last time he faced them. In that start, which was almost exactly (8/25/09) a year ago today, Zambrano gave up eight runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Washington won by a score of 15-6.

As for Lannan, he's 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four starts vs. the Cubs. In two home starts vs. the Cubs, he's allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. That translates to a stellar 1.32 ERA.

Note that the Nationals' relievers entered the series with a 3.17 ERA and 1.206 WHIP at home. The Cubs' relievers entered the series with a 5.29 ERA and 1.572 WHIP on the road.

After yesterday's loss, Washington manager Jim Riggleman had this to say: "I talked to the ballclub after the game and let them know that they have to play with more energy. You have to find a way." I expect Riggleman's crew to "find a way," as they bounce back and earn a rare home win in this series. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants got pounded 9-0 yesterday. That was at St. Louis though, where the Cardinals had an advantage on the mound. Now, the Giants are back home with Matt Cain on the mound. Big difference.

Cain checks in at 6-3 with a stellar 2.62 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 12 home starts. He's averaged 6.9 innings in those starts, recording 67 K's to just 25 walks. The Giants were 8-4 in those games. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark his last four starts here and a 7-1 mark his last eight here. Looking back further and we find the Giants at 13-7 his last 20 home starts. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .199 against him here for the season.

While the Giants couldn't manage a run for Zito yesterday, Cain figures to get some solid run support here. In his last start, Volquez allowed nine baserunners (6 hits, 3 walks) and gave up five earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings. That gives him an awful 6.00 ERA and 1.932 WHIP on the road. Opposing hitters are batting .305 against him on the road.

Note that Cain has a 3.21 ERA vs. the Reds. Volquez has a 5.11 ERA vs. the Giants. In his lone starts against the Reds this season, Cain tossed a complete-game shutout. The Giants won 3-0.

The Giants are a profitable 37-17 (+14.1) the past few seasons when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. They've done remarkably well over the years at starting off a new week with a win. (They're 143-87 (+56.4) on Mondays since 1997) Behind another big effort from Cain, I expect them to bounce back and start this series off with another victory. *10

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals got another gem from Chris Carpenter yesterday. Carpenter outpitched Lincecum and the Cards won by a score of 5-1. That snapped a rare losing streak. I expect them to have the advantage on the mound again for this afternoon's "all southpaw" matchup.

Zito is 2-5 on the road with a 4.50 ERA and 1.324 WHIP. Garcia is only 4-3 at home. However, he's been a lot better than that record indicates.

Indeed, in 11 starts here, he's got a superb 1.76 ERA. Also, note that opposing hitters are batting a mere .205 vs. Garcia in his four daytime starts.

Last time out, Garcia allowed three runs on five hits, through six innings. Those runs were all unearned though. He had 6 K's with three walks.

Zito wasn't nearly as strong in his last start. He allowed eight hits and four runs, (all earned) lasting only five innings. He didn't record a single strikeout. In his previous start, Zito gave up 10 hits and four runs. In other words, he's hardly been "unhittable" recently. Note that he's allowed eight home runs in his last six games.

Zito admittedly did pitch well in this season's lone start against the Cardinals. That was at home though. In his most recent start at St. Louis, he allowed five runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Overall, he's 1-4 (teams are 1-5) with a 4.24 ERA and ugly 1.706 WHIP in six starts vs. the Cards.

Zito's teams are 0-3 in his first three starts here at St. Louis. In 13 1/3 innings, Zito allowed 12 earned runs. That translates to a terrible 8.10 ERA. The Cards won those games by scores of 5-2, 7-0 and 8-4. Note that Zito has only gotten 1.62 runs of support in going 0-3 his last six starts.

With this being a day game, note that the Giants average 3.9 runs during the afternoon while the Cards average 4.6.

The Giants, now 22-33 the last 45 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, hit .261 and average 4.4 runs vs. southpaw starters. The Cards have the edge there, too. They hit .271 and average 4.9 runs vs. southpaw starters.

While the Giants are .500 (32-32) away from San Francisco, the Cards are now an outstanding 40-23 at home. Knowing they have a lengthy road trip in front of them, I expect them to close out the series and homestand with another important victory. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. The Reds are "red hot" and they grabbed yesterday's opener. They're still a dismal 1-12 their last 13 games here at LA though and I expect their current winning streak to come to an end tonight.

Cueto goes for the Reds. Admittedly, he's been outstanding on the road. That said, he's 0-2 vs. the Dodgers. Perhaps more importantly, he hasn't started since August 10th, due to being suspended for seven games. That kind of "break in the action" can mess with a starter's routine and generally isn't ideal for a pitcher that had been throwing the ball so well.

In his only start here at LA, Cueto allowed four runs (2 earned) and 10 (7 hits and 3 walks) baserunners, in just five innings. The Dodgers won by a score of 5-2. Note that its possible that Cueto may have to contend with the return of Manny Ramirez to the LA lineup.

Billingsley is 0-2 his last four starts. However, that hasn't been his fault. Indeed, he's got a stellar 2.10 ERA over that stretch. Last time out, he limited Atlanta to one run over seven innings, recording an impressive 8 K's.

Billingsley has made six starts against the Reds. He's allowed four earned runs or less in all six of them and two or less in four of them. One of those games came against Cueto, a 3-1 win for Billingsley and the Dodgers. Billingsley allowed one run and had 9 K's in 6 1/3 innings.

The win over Cueto was at Cincinnati. However, the Dodgers are also 2-0 when Billingsley has faced the Reds here at LA - no big surprise given the Dodgers dominance of the Reds here. In those two games, Billingsley allowed just two earned runs through 13 complete innings. That translates to a 1.38 ERA. He had 14 K's while walking only three.

While the Reds are relatively comfortable on top of the NL Central, the Dodgers are desperate to get back in the race in the NL West. Behind another quality effort from Billingsley, I expect them to bounce back and resume their homefield dominance in this series. *10 (NL Personal Favorite)

I'm playing on BOSTON. Toronto jumped on Jon Lester for five first inning runs yesterday. By the sixth inning, the Jays had extended their lead to 14-0. They would eventually win by a score of 16-2.Today, off the embarrassing loss, I expect the Red Sox to bounce back with a victory.

Yes, the Jays' offense exploded yesterday. Keep in mind that Toronto entered the series hitting only .238 on the road, averaging 4.2 runs. On the other hand, Boston entered the series averaging 5.2 runs while hitting .278.

These pitchers squared off against each other less than two weeks ago. Neither was dominant and neither factored in the decision. Matsuzaka was arguably slightly better though and Boston finished with a 7-5 victory.

The 8/10 game was at Toronto. That should have favored Romero, as he entered that game with a 6-2 home record to go along with a stellar 2.18 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Romero hasn't been as good on the road though. Even though he's admittedly been tough lately, in 14 road starts, he's still got a mediocre 4.09 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He was 5-5 in those games and the Jays were 7-7. Looking back further and we find the Jays at 8-12

Matsuzaka's home ERA of 4.12 is almost identical to Romero's road ERA. However, note that Matsuzaka's WHIP (1.282) is superior. More importantly, the Red Sox are a profitable 5-2 (+1.7) in his seven home starts. Dating back to last season, the Sox are now 7-2 in Matsuzaka's last nine home starts. In his most recent start here, "Dice-K" allowed only five hits and one run through eight complete innings. He earned the easy 6-2 victory.

Matsuzaka has allowed four earned runs or less in six straight home starts. He allowed three or less in five of those six games. He's also gone at least six complete innings in four straight home starts.

Given the history that Romero and Matsuzaka have had in this series, the fact that Boston won the 8/10 game shouldn't have come as that much of a surprise. Romero is now 1-4 with a terrible 8.51 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in seven starts vs. Boston. The Jays were 1-6 in those games, getting outscored by a 53-27 margin.

On the other hand, Matsuzaka is 6-1 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.127 WHIP in 10 starts vs. the Jays. The Red Sox were a highly profitable 9-1 (+7.7) in those games, including a perfect 9-0 the last nine. The Red Sox won those nine games by a combined score of 58-31.

The Red Sox are a solid 13-7 the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. They've also gone a profitable 23-14 (+6.2) the past few seasons, after allowing double-digits in their previous game, most recently a 3-1 win at Texas on 8/14. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Both teams come in on a roll. The Padres won again yesterday, completing a 4-game sweep at Wrigley. The Brewers closed out a winning road trip by winning both games of a 2-game series at St. Louis. Unlike the Padres, they had yesterday off. I expect the Brewers, 7-5 (+3.2) the last dozen times that they played with a day off in between games, to have the advantage for this evening's opener.

Gallardo gets the call and he's 11-5 with a stellar 2.97 ERA on the season. His home ERA (3.62) isn't quite as strong as his road ERA, but its still solid. The Brewers have won five of his last seven home starts and are 11-6 his last 17 starts here. Note that Gallardo averages better than six innings per start and strikes out more than a batter per inning.

After his last outing, Milwaukee manager Ken Macha said this of Gallardo: "Yo pitched terrific..."

Note that the Brewers were perfect in Gallardo's home August starts last season and are 5-1 in that situation, all time.

LeBlanc is 7-10 on the season. He's 4-5 with a poor 4.58 ERA and 1.456 on the road. The Padres did win his last road start but are still just 2-4 his last six away from Petco Park.

I mentioned that Gallardo has enjoyed some success in August. As a team, the Brewers are a lucrative 43-29 (+12.3) in August the past few seasons, including 7-3 their last 10 Aug. home games. I expect them to improve on those stats, cooling off the surging Padres along the way. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. These teams have split the first two meetings of the series. The Dodgers won 6-0 on Tuesday. Yesterday, the Rockies responded with a 3-2 victory, in 10 innings. With Ted Lilly on the mound, I expect the Dodgers to bounce back and grab today's rubber game.

Lilly has been superb recently. Since joining the Dodgers, Lilly has gone 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and a sparkling 0.632 WHIP. Over that span, he has 15 strikeouts with only two walks. The Dodgers have won his three starts by a combined score of 12-5.

With this being an evening start, note that Lilly has been much better at night than during the day. In nine daytime starts, he's has a poor 5.02 ERA. However, in 12 evening starts, he has a stellar 2.29 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting only .204 in those games.

De La Rosa has a 4.99 ERA on the season. That only tells half the story though. A closer look reveals that he's been respectable at home but that he's got an awful 6.86 ERA on the road. In four road starts, he's given up 16 runs (15 earned) in 19 innings. Over that span, he's allowed six home runs while walking a whopping 16 batters. Making matters worse, De La Rosa is 0-5 with an ugly 6.58 ERA in 11 appearances (seven starts) in his career against the Dodgers. The Rockies were 0-7 in those games. He has been decent lately. However, three of his last four starts have come at home and the other was at Pittsburgh.

With this being an evening start, note that De La Rosa has been much better during the day than at night. In five daytime starts, he's gone 3-1 with a solid 3.23 However, in six evening starts, he's 1-2 with a terrible 6.75 ERA.

Note that Colorado will likely be without outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. That's significant, as Gonzalez leads Colorado in batting average (.318), home runs (25), RBIs (79) and stolen bases (19). After he ran into the wall making a catch last night, manager Jim Tracy said. "More than likely, Gonzalez will not be available for us Thursday, but we're very hopeful of the fact that we will have him back on Friday."

The Dodgers, who have dominated the Rockies in recent seasons, know they can't afford to fall further behind in the playoff race. Yesterday's loss dropped them eight games behind Philadelphia in the wild-card race and 12 games back of San Diego in the NL West. The last time that Lilly faced the Rockies, he allowed only one hit, through 6 2/3 shutout innings. He had 8 K's and 1 walk in that one, outpitching Jimenez en route to a 4-0 victory. The Cubs were 3-0 his last three vs. the Rockies and I look for the Dodgers to improve to 14-7 the last 21 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. *10

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. These teams have split the first two meetings of this series. The Orioles grabbed Monday's opener by a 5-4 score. Yesterday saw the Mariners return the favor with a 4-0 victory. The M's are still a dismal 18-41 (-20.4) on the road though and I expect the O's to have the advantage for this evening's rubber game.

Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Orioles have been playing very well lately. They're still 10-5 their last 15 games and 7-2 their last nine here at home. Jeremy Guthrie has been a big part of the O's' recent success. Indeed, he's 3-0 with an outstanding 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP his last three starts, averaging seven innings per outing. Last time out, he limited the Rays to two hits through six shutout innings.

Guthrie should be happy to see David Pauley as Seattle's starting pitcher. He's made seven starts vs. the Mariners. One came against Bedard and the other six came against Felix Hernandez. No offense to Pauley, but he's not in the same class as "King Felix." Note that the O's are still 4-3 in Guthrie's seven starts against Seattle, despite having to contend with Hernandez. Guthrie allowed three earned runs or less in six of those seven games.

Pauley was solid last time out (2 runs in 6 innings) but he's still just 1-4 as a starter. He's also got an ugly 6.23 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his road starts. Note that Pauley only averaged 4 1/3 innings in those games.

On the other hand, Guthrie has gone at least six complete innings in 10 straight home starts. He's allowed three earned runs or less in eight of those games, including five straight. I expect Guthrie to get the better of Pauly here as the O's bounce back and continue their August hot streak. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The finale of this 3-game set features Toronto's Mark Rzepcynski taking on Oakland's Gio Gonzalez. I won with the A's yesterday and I feel that Gonzalez should provide them with a significant advantage once again, particularly with this being a day game.

Gonzalez has gone just 1-2 his last three starts. However, he's been pitching very well. During that 3-game span, he's managed a stellar 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP. He's also averaged seven innings in those games, recording an impressive 20 K's in 21 innings. Of course, Gonzalez has been getting it done here all season. In 11 home starts, he's gone 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The A's were 7-4 (+2.7) in those games.

In his most recent start here, Gonzalez tossed seven shutout innings vs. Texas, allowing only four hits. The A's won 6-2.

In one start against Toronto this season, Gonzalez gave up two runs over 6 2/3 innings while earning the win.

With this being an afternoon game, note that Gonzalez has been much better when pitching during the day. In 16 daytime starts, he's gone 4-7 with a 4.34 ERA. However, in eight daytime starts, he's gone 6-1 with a 2.10 ERA. Opposing batters hit a mere .187 in those games.

To his credit, Rzepcynski is coming off a gem for the Jays. However, he's still a spot starter just fighting for a place at the back of the rotation. Note that in 12 starts for Las Vegas, Rzepcynski was 5-5 with an ugly 6.04 ERA. Also, note that Rzepcynski is 0-1 with an awful 8.44 ERA when pitching during the day.

Gonzalez hasn't been the only Oakland player who performs well during the afternoon. As a team, the A's are a highly profitable 28-12 (+17.6) their last 40 day games. Behind another quality effort from Gonzalez, I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. In addition to having this season's top home run hitter, (Bautista currently leads the league with 36) the Jays have assembled a talented pitching staff. We saw it again yesterday. Fresh off signing a new 30-million dollar contract, Ricky Romero delivered seven strong innings, en route to a 4-1 Toronto victory. Tonight, however, its the A's who bring the much hotter pitcher to the table.

Anderson gets the call for the home team and he's coming off back to back gems. Two starts ago, he allowed just three hits and two runs through seven innings. Last time out, he allowed five hits and one run, again going seven innings. That translates to a 1.93 ERA his last two starts.

On the other hand, Marcum has been rocked in each of his past two starts. Two games ago, he allowed eight hits and five runs through six innings. Last time out, he was even worse. Lasting only four innings, he gave up eight runs. That translates to an 11.70 ERA his last two starts.

True, Marcum had to contend with a pair of very tough offenses (NY and Boston) but the fact is that he still struggled. He was quoted as saying: "My mechanics felt off a little bit but that's no excuse. I've still got to make pitches and try to find a way to grind out some innings."

For the season, Marcum has a 4.62 ERA on the road. Anderson has a 3.00 ERA at home to go along with an extremely stingy 0.833 WHIP.

The A's have seen Marcum five times before, including once this season. Conversely, Anderson will have the advantage of starting against Toronto for the first time.

With all their home runs, we think of the Jays as a much better hitting team than the A's. Overall, they have scored more runs. That's been due to their success at Toronto though. On the road, they don't hit nearly as well. In fact, they enter this series hitting only .240 on the road while averaging 4.3 runs. That's exactly what the A's are averaging here at Oakland, as they score 4.3 runs per game here. Unlike the Jays, they're hitting a more respectable .261 here though.

Its also important to note that the Jays are a poor 9-15 (-5.4) on the season vs. southpaw starters and that they've hit terribly in those games. For the season, they're hitting only .209 vs. left-handers, averaging a measly 3.2 runs per game.

Toronto relievers have a 3.55 ERA and 1.357 WHIP on the road. Oakland relievers have a 2.91 ERA and 1.134 WHIP at home.

While the recent road trip didn't go well, the A's are 10-4 their last 14 home games. I expect them to start the homestand with a victory. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Padres have dominated the Giants this season, winning eight of 10 meetings. It appeared like that domination would continue yesterday. Having already grabbed Friday's series opener, the Padres took a 2-0 lead into seventh and a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th inning. The Giants managed to force extra innings though and eventually won it in the 11th.

After the big comeback win, Giants first baseman Aubrey Huff noted: "They've owned us all year. It seems like we match up well. They just come out on the winning end most of the time. We finally caught some breaks." That's the type of victory a team can build positive momentum from. Having "gotten the monkey off their back," and with their ace on the mound, I expect the Giants to follow it up with another victory this afternoon.

LeBlanc was better than Lincecum last time out. However, make no mistake, Lincecum is the better pitcher. For the season, they have similar ERA's. LeBlanc has a 3.51 ER. Lincecum has a 3.41 mark. LeBlanc's numbers have been helped by the fact that he pitches at San Diego though. In 12 home starts, he has a stellar 2.59 ERA. However, take him away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park and we find him with at 3-5 with a poor 4.86 ERA. In those nine road starts, he's given up nine home runs and opposing batters have hit .300. He's now lost five of his last seven road starts, while posting a 5.72 ERA.

Yes, Lincecum is off back to back losses. One of those was still a quality start though. As San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy noted: "...I think Timmy will bounce back. We have all the faith in this kid." Bochy has good reason to be faithful. While Lincecum won't win the Cy Young this year, he's still got "Cy Young stuff" and remains one of the top pitchers in the game. Note that he's 4-2 with an outstanding 1.67 ERA in 11 career starts against San Diego. The Giants were a lucrative 8-3 (+4.6) in those games.

The last time that Lincecum was off back to back losses, he responded by limiting the Brewers to four hits and one run through seven complete innings. The Giants won that game by a score of 15-2. Lincecum followed that up with a complete game shutout. In fact, after his two losses, the Giants were a perfect 5-0 his next five starts.

While the price may seem a little on the steep side, note that the Giants are a profitable 9-2 (+5.2) the last 11 times that they were favored in the -175 to -200 range. With some positive momentum in their corner and Lincecum bouncing back with a big game, I expect them to pad those stats this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on Chicago and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener was of the high-scoring variety. However, I expect a lower-scoring affair here.

Edwin Jackson seems to like the American League, as he's off back to back strong starts. He held these same Tigers to one run through seven innings and then followed it up by limiting the Orioles to two runs (one was unearned) through six complete innings. Over the two starts, he had 13 K's to just two walks. Not surprisingly, both those games stayed below the total. They finished with scores of 4-1 and 3-2.

Including the 8/3 game, note that Jackson is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts vs. the Tigers and 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA in six appearances against them overall. Here, he'll be facing a Detroit team which has hit poorly on the road all season.

Admittedly, Porcello's numbers aren't very good this season. However, I successfully played on the Tigers in his last start and can tell you that he pitched well and that he's been much better in recent weeks. Porcello would end up allowing two earned runs through six complete innings, without walking a batter.

Prior to that 8/8 game, here's what I had to say about Porcello: "After going 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA last season, Porcello has been 'taking his lumps' this season. He's also coming off a bad game. That said, prior to his last outing, he'd actually been pitching a lot better recently. In fact, he entered that game having posted a very solid 3.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over his previous three starts, averaging greater than seven innings in those outings. I feel that Porcello, who won't have to face Torii Hunter, is capable of bouncing back with a much better effort..."

As you can see, Porcello did indeed bounce back with a solid effort. He's now gone six or more innings in four of his last five starts. True, he struggled against the White Sox and his career numbers against Chicago aren't good. Still, he's throwing the ball better now than he has all season and I feel that he can keep it going here. After winning last weekend, he was quoted as saying: "It feels good to finally help the team and get a win. I felt I had pretty good life on my fastball and a good breaking ball."

Note that both starters are supported by capable bullpens.

Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, the White Sox have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 8-3 their last 11 games. The UNDER is also still 7-5-1 the last 13 times that the Tigers played here. I expect those numbers to improve here. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Blue Jays are off a big comeback win yesterday afternoon. They scored four in the bottom of the ninth to edge the Red Sox 6-5. With it being Brandon Morrow's turn in the rotation, one might feel that they have an excellent shot at another victory this evening. Indeed, Morrow struck out 17 last time out, tossing a complete-game shutout. Only one problem. Morrow's start is being skipped to give him some extra rest. Instead, Marc Rzepczynski, recalled from Triple-A, will get the nod. Big difference.

Rzepczynski is 2-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 13 starts over two seasons. The Jays were 5-8 in those games, including a dismal 1-6 on the road. Note that Rzepczynski never went past six innings in any single road start.

Kazmir goes for the Angels. His numbers are admittedly pretty bad. However, he's coming off a solid outing and he's proven in the past to be a much better pitcher than this year's numbers indicate.

Last time out, in his return from the D.L, Kazmir allowed only one (unearned) run and just three hits through five innings. The Angels won 10-1. Manager Mike Scioscia said this of Kazmir: "We're talking about a guy that, if he pitches to his potential, will be a Cy Young candidate."

Kazmir will face a Toronto team which is just 8-15 (-6.6) its last 23 vs. southpaw starters and a money-burning 50-66 (-21.2) the past few seasons.

The Angels have the schedule in their favor. While the Blue Jays played yesterday afternoon in Canada and then had to fly to the West Coast, the Angels had yesterday off.

The Angels have won five of their last six games. That's given them renewed confidence that they're not out of the A.L. West race yet. As Torii Hunter noted: "It's not over for us. The fat lady, she hasn't sang yet." The Angels are also 5-1 against the Jays this season. Looking back further and we find them at 13-6 the last 19 times that they faced the Jays, 7-3 the last 10 here at Anaheim. I feel the price is fair and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers have dropped each of the first three games of this series. They should be extremely motivated to avoid the sweep and with a starter in better current form, I expect them to have the edge on the mound.

Randy Wolf had a disappointing first half. However, the veteran southpaw has been rounding into form of late. Indeed, he's delivered three consecutive quality starts. During that stretch, he has a stellar 2.29 ERA and 1.118 WHIP. He has 13 K's with only two walks in those three games. Last time out, he allowed two runs through 6 2/3 innings. Note that he tossed six shutout innings in that one before giving up the two runs in the seventh. Also, note that Wolf has been better at home than away AND that he's been better during the afternoon, than during the evening.

Wolf should be pleased to see Arizona. He's already 1-0 against the Diamondbacks this season and is 9-3 against them for his career.

Unlike Wolf, Lopez hasn't been particularly sharp lately. Last time out, he gave up eight hits and three runs in just five innings. Lopez hasn't won a game since July 8 and is 0-3 with an ugly 5.70 ERA over that span. For the season, he's 5-10 with a 4.66 ERA.

Even including the results from the past few days, note that the Brewers are still a healthy 13-7 the last 20 times that they faced the Diamondbacks.

The Brewers are 4-1 their last five home games vs. southpaw starters, including a 2-0 mark over the past week. Knowing they take to the road after this, I expect them to pad those stats, closing out the series and the homestand with a victory. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The White Sox are suddenly struggling and the Twins have taken advantage. With a 12-6 victory in yesterday's series

opener, Minnesota is suddenly alone in first place in the AL Central. That should be just the "wake-up call" that the Sox, who haven't lost a

home series since early June, needed. More importantly, the Sox should have a significant edge on the mound.

Danks gets the call for the home team and he's been great. Last time out, he allowed one run through seven complete innings. He had 5 K's and didn't walk a batter. That marked the third time in four games that he's gone at least seven innings and has given up no more than one run. For the season, Danks has a stellar 2.87 ERA and 1.004 ERA in 12 home starts. He's averaged greater than seven innings per home start and has 69 K's to just 19 walks. Danks hasn't gotten much run support recently but I expect him to get some here.

Even though the pitching wasn't good, the Sox bats did finally come to life a little yesterday. Today, they'll face Glen Perkins, who will be making his first big league start of 2010. You may recall that Perkins had a poor 5.01 ERA in 18 starts with the Twins from 2008-2009. He's been in the minor leagues this season and is only here to fill in for Kevin Slowey, who has a sore elbow.

While he has admittedly been pitching better down there lately, note that Perkins is still just 4-9 with an ugly 6.08 ERA in 23 starts at Triple-AAA this season.

While the price may seem a bit steep at first, given the pitching matchup, I believe its more than fair. Also, note that the Sox are a profitable 12-5 (+3.7) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. The Twins, on the other hand, are 8-16 (-3.3) the last 24 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range. Overall, the Twins are 31-29 on the road while the Sox are still a healthy 33-21 at home. Behind another strong effort from Danks, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on St. Louis and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this important divisional series have both finished above the total. I expect a much lower-scoring affair for this afternoon's finale.

Wainwright has been superb this season. He checks in with a 16-6 record to go along wit a sparkling 2.07 ERA and 0.998 WHIP. Two games ago, he allowed one run through seven complete innings. Last time out, he threw a complete-game 2-hit shutout. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "I was clicking. I was mixing in and out and changing speeds and controlling the count for the most part. ... I've felt like this all year, to be honest with you."

For the season, opposing batters are hitting .213 against Wainwright. He has 154 K's to just 42 walks.

With this being an early start, note that Wainwright has been particularly dominant when pitching during the day. In fact, he's 8-0 with a microscopic 1.45 ERA in nine daytime starts. He's only given up two home runs in those nine games.

Arroyo's stats (12-6, 3.83 ERA) for the season aren't quite as exceptional as Wainwright's. However, he's arguably been every bit as dominant lately. In fact, he's got a 0.00 ERA his last two starts. In both games, he allowed 0 earned runs through seven complete innings. He's allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts, incl. two or less in five of those. He also went at least six complete innings in six of those seven games.

With this being an early start, note that Arroyo is 5-3 with a stellar 2.94 ERA in his 10 daytime starts.

The UNDER is 8-2 in Arroyo's last 10 starts, including 3-0 the last three. We also find the UNDER at 23-12-5 the last 40 Reds' day games, numbers I expect to improve this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Both teams could really use a victory. The Rays just got swept by the Jays. The Tigers won yesterday but they're still just 3-7 their past 10 and a dismal 6-20 their past 26. While both teams figure to be extremely motivated, I expect the Rays to have the advantage on the mound.

Price is having an outstanding season. He checks in at 14-5 with a 2.82 ERA. That includes a 7-3 record and 2.41 ERA when pitching during the evening. Opposing hitters are batting just .220 against Price in those games and .225 overall. Last time out, he allowed just one run through seven innings. He's 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA his last three starts.

Galarraga lost his last game, allowing four earned runs. It could have been even worse, as he gave up eight hits and issued five walks. Since his great game vs. Cleveland on June 2, he's gone 1-3 with six no-decisions. He has an ugly 5.48 ERA in his last eight starts. The Tigers are 0-3 in Galarraga's last three home starts and he's allowed three or more runs in five straight starts here. He's 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA in the evening. Opposing hitters are batting .273 in those games.

In addition to having far better stats this season, Price has better numbers vs. today's opponent. Price, who led the Rays to a win, in the following game, the last time they were "no-hit," (they had 1 hit yesterday) has a 1.65 ERA vs. the Tigers. Galarraga has a 6.35 ERA vs. the Rays.

I won with the Tigers yesterday and I'm well aware that they've been very strong at home. However, here they'll be taking on the Rays, the team with the most road wins in baseball. The Rays are 12-8 the last 20 meetings in the series, including 4-0 this season. Given Price's numbers, I feel that the current price is more than fair. *10

I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. After dropping the series opener, the Yankees bounced back with a big win yesterday. Playing without Alex Rodriguez in the lineup, the Yankees managed a 5-2 victory. With or without A-Rod in the lineup, I look for them to follow it up with another victory here.

Burnett goes for the home team and he's coming off a poor outing. However, in his defense, that bad outing was mostly the result of one bad inning, a 7-run 5th inning. Also, note that he had won his previous two starts by throwing 11 1/3 scoreless innings. He entered that game with a 3.25 ERA at home. However, with the bad inning, that climbed all the way up to 4.24.

Beckett has been pitching well lately. However, he's still got a poor 5.70 ERA on the season, including 5.24 (1.456 WHIP) on the road.

Its true that Burnett has had trouble with Boston, since joining the Yankees. That said, its also true that his teams are 15-5 in his last 20 home starts in the month of August. That includes a 2-0 victory over Beckett almost exactly one year ago. Burnett tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings, in that 08/07 game.

While the Red Sox average five runs per game on the road, the Yankees average six runs per game, at home. The Yankee relievers have a 3.83 ERA overall. The Boston bullpen has a combined 4.24 ERA, including a poor 4.97 ERA on the road.

Overall, with yesterday's victory, the Yankees are now 15-5 their last 20 games vs. Boston, including 9-2 here at New York. They're 36-19 here on the season, including a 22-10 (+4.7) mark when playing a home game with a total of either 9 or 9.5. Looking back further and we find the Yankees at an extremely lucrative 80-32 (+25.4) the last few seasons, when playing a home game with a total of either 9 or 9.5. I expect Burnett to bounce back with a much better effort and for the Yankees to pad those stats this evening. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Cardinals easily grabbed yesterday's opener. Today's game figures to be much more difficult, as the Marlins should have a significant edge on the mound. Josh Johnson gets the call for the home team and he figures to be extremely motivated. Not only does his team badly need a victory, but he's coming off a rare subpar outing of his own. I say "rare," as he still leads the league, in terms of earned run average. He checks in with a 10-4 record and a 1.96 ERA. Johnson has been particularly tough to beat at home. Indeed, he's 7-2 with an extremely stingy 1.41 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in 13 home starts. The Marlins were a profitable 10-3 (+5.4) in those games. Jake Westbrook was fairly solid in his St. Louis debut. The Cardinals still lost though and Westbrook's teams are now just 8-14 (-5.1) in his 22 starts. That includes a money-burning 3-8 (-4.4) mark in his 11 road starts. Westbrook has a poor 5.12 ERA (1.446 WHIP) in those games. Johnson averages nearly seven innings per home start. Westbrook averages less than six innings per road start. In 65 innings, Westbrook has 38 K's and 21 walks on the road, allowing nine home runs. On the other hand, Johnson has allowed only two home runs in 89 1/3 home innings. During that stretch, he has an extremely impressive 110 K's with just 18 walks. In fact, a closer look reveals that Johnson has allowed two earned runs or less in 12 straight home starts, going a minimum of six complete innings in all of them. Westbrook pitched well in his lone start vs. Florida. That was way back in 2004 though. Johnson hasn't seen the Cards yet this season. However, the Marlins were 2-0 in his two starts vs. St. Louis last season. He allowed four runs in 13 innings (2.77 ERA) and recorded 10 K's with only one walk. While they broke out yesterday, the Cards entered this series averaging only four runs per game, on the road. They're still only 23-30 away from St. Louis. Given Westbrook's mediocrity on the road and Johnson's dominance at home, I feel that the line is fair. I expect the Marlins, who had a players-only meeting before Friday, to bounce back with a much needed victory. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. Momentum is often a bigger factor than many bettors realize. That's particularly true in baseball, where the teams play nearly every day.

After winning three straight low-scoring games from 7/24 to 7/26, the Dodgers suddenly lost six straight. Seemingly, nothing could go right. They scored two runs or less in four of the losses and five or less in all of them.

On Tuesday, the Dodgers finally won, earning a 2-1 victory. Having snapped their 6-game slide, I played on the Dodgers yesterday. In my analysis, I mentioned how Tuesday's win gave them some "life and momentum." That sure seemed to be the case, as they exploded for a 9-0 victory.

Off that badly needed "offensive explosion" and with two straight victories, despite some injury issues, the Dodgers are 'rolling' again. That said, they also know that they're far enough back in the race that they can ill afford a letdown. I expect them to have the advantage on the mound.

While the Dodgers' bats have come to life, the Padres suddenly find themselves with just three hits (all singles) and 0 runs over their last 17 innings. (Even before yesterday, they were hitting just .245 on the road.) Now, they have to go against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.

Billingsley has been simply outstanding lately. In fact, he has a 0.00 ERA and 0.738 WHIP his last three starts, allowing 0 runs through 21 2/3 innings. That's the longest active scoreless streak in the big leagues. Over that span, he's allowed just 10 hits. He's now 9-5 with a 3.78 ERA on the season.

Note that Billingsley is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts vs. the Padres this season. For his career, he's 10-4 with a 2.36 ERA against them, including 6-1 with a 2.25 ERA his last eight.

While he was fairly solid in July, Correia still has a poor 5.06 ERA on the season. That includes an ugly 5.98 ERA on the road and an awful 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. the Dodgers.

With yesterday's victory, the Dodgers are now 14-6 the last 20 times that they hosted the Padres. With some positive momentum in their corner and given Billingsley's current form, I feel that they've got a very strong chance at winning their third straight. *10

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Having lost seven in a row and on the verge of getting swept, the Cubs badly need a victory. This afternoon's matchup gives them a great chance to snap the skid.

Dempster got rocked last time out, lasting only four innings. That was at Colorado though. Now, he's back home where opposing batters are hitting only .229 against him for the season. He's got a 3.70 ERA here with 72 K's in 75 innings. Prior to the bad outing vs. the Rockies, Dempster had allowed four earned runs or less in 10 straight outings, allowing three or less in nine of them. In his most recent home start, he limited the Cardinals to three runs through seven complete innings.

While Dempster has been mostly solid, Parra has been awful. Last time out, he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He was quoted as saying: "I threw the ball really well..." That may be true. However, its also true that he's now allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last six starts. For the season, he's 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA. That includes a 2-4 ERA with a 6.38 ERA on the road.

It should also be noted that Parra is just 1-5 with a horrible 7.09 ERA, when pitching during the afternoon. Opposing hitters are batting .368 in those games.

As a team, the Brewers are just 14-25 (-12.9) when playing during the afternoon.

Additionally, Parra is 0-1 (team is 0-2) with a dismal 8.64 ERA and 2.161 WHIP in two starts vs. the Cubs. His last start vs. Chicago was against Dempster. The Cubs won 7-2.

On the other hand, Dempster is 13-3 with a 2.81 ERA vs. the Brewers. His teams are 9-1 in his 10 home starts vs. the Brewers and that includes a perfect 6-0 record here at Wrigley, as a member of the Cubs. Note that Dempster allowed three earned runs or less in five of those six starts.

The Cubs haven't been swept here at home by the Brewers since 2002. With Demspter getting the better of Parra, I expect them to finally get back on track. *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Nationals grabbed yesterday's opener by a score of 3-1. Today, I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back with a victory.

Usually, when a team trades a player like Dan Haren, they get some prospects in return. However, the Diamondbacks got a starting pitcher who has proven capable of getting it done. Indeed, Saunders was a combined 33-14 the past two seasons and 45-22 the past four. True, he's only 6-10 this year. He's been much better than that record indicates lately though. Last time out, in his Arizona debut, he went into Philadelphia and allowed just two runs through seven hits. He struck out four Phillies and didn't walk a batter.

Saunders didn't factor in the decision, as the game went to extra innings, but manager Kirk Gibson had this to say: "Saunders was great."

Saunders has now gone at least seven innings in four of his last six starts. Prior to the trade, he had a 3.48 ERA in his previous five starts for the Angels.

Saunders will have the advantage of starting against the Nationals for the first time. (Note that he is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts against other teams from the NL East.) He'll face a Washington team which is hitting only .193 (16 for 83) vs southpaws in its last six games.

On the other hand, Arizona knows all about Scott Olsen. In four career starts against the Diamondbacks, Olsen is 0-2 with an awful 8.86 ERA and 2.157 WHIP. In his three road starts at Arizona, he's allowed a combined 18 runs in 14 1/3 innings.

Note that Olsen will be making just his second start back from a 2-month stint on the disabled list.

Also, note that Olsen's teams (Washington and Florida) are just 5-15 in his last 20 road starts.

The Diamondbacks' home record of 24-30 admittedly isn't that great. However, its far better than Washington's 18-36 mark on the road. Behind another solid start from Saunders, I expect the home team to even the series. *10

I'm playing on Toronto and New York to finish UNDER the total. Five of the last seven meetings between the Jays and the Yankees have fallen below the total. With both this evening's starters in excellent current form, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair.

Burnett is off back to back gems for the Yankees. In fact, he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two games, giving up 11 hits in 11 1/3 innings. Looking back further and we find that

Burnett has now allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts, allowing 0 runs in three of those games.

For the season, Burnett has a very solid 3.25 ERA.

Note that Burnett has seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 his last 20 starts in the month of August.

It's also worth mentioning that Burnett has seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 in six starts vs. Toronto, one of his former teams. All six of those games finished with seven or fewer combined runs.

Burnett's most recent start vs. the Jays saw him allow just four hits through 6 2/3 shutout innings.

Morrow is also off back to back strong starts. Last time out, he allowed two runs through six complete innings. In his previous start, he allowed two runs through seven innings. Over the 13 innings, he has 14 strikeouts. For the season, he now has an impressive 125 K's in 113 innings. Also, note that Morrow has allowed just one run in three of his four career starts vs. the Yankees.

The Yankees have seen the UNDER go 27-18-2 the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range. With the Jays averaging only 4.3 runs (and hitting only .240) on the road, I expect those stats to improve here. *10

I'm playing on Minnesota and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. The Mariners were blanked 4-0. Remarkably, they've now scored two or fewer runs in 49 of their last 105 games. Runs figure to be few and far between for the Mariners again this afternoon as they now have to contend with a red hot pitcher.

Liriano has been awesome lately for the Twins. Over his last three starts, he's gone 3-0 with a microscopic 0.83 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. During that stretch, he's given up just two runs in 21 2/3 innings, recording 22 K's. For the season, he's 5-3 at home with a 2.55 ERA. Averaging greater than seven innings, he didn't allow a single home run in any of those 10 starts. He had 73 K's (in 70 2/3 innings) with only 19 K's.

For the season, Liriano also has a 2.87 ERA in seven daytime starts. He didn't allow a single home run in any of those games either.

Note that Minnesota starters have gone 9-0 with a 1.38 ERA during the last 10 games.

Luke French gets the nod for the Mariners. He hopes to be back in the rotation permanently after replacing struggling Rowland-Smith. French has only thrown 12.2 big league innings this season, so we don't have much to go on there. However, note that he was 11-3 with a very solid 2.94 ERA in 17 starts with Tacoma. He was also a Pacific Coast League All-Star.

French is fortunate as he won't have to face Joe Mauer. Mauer, the reigning AL MVP, will miss (at least) the next two games. Justin Morneau also remains out.

The Mariners, who average only 3.2 runs per game vs. left-handers, have seen the UNDER go 17-12-4 vs. southpaw starters. They've also seen the UNDER go 11-5-3 when playing a road game with a total of either eight or 8.5. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Give the Astros credit. Despite having to deal with the distraction of seeing some longtime teammates get traded, the Astros have managed to put together a 4-game winning streak. They're not an elite team by any means though and I expect their unbeaten streak to come to an end here.

The Brewers entered the weekend averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road. On the other hand, the Astros entered the weekend hitting .249 at home and averaging a mere 3.6 runs.

Admittedly, Wolf's overall numbers aren't that great. However, he is fully capable of delivering a strong performance. Last time out, Wolf allowed just two runs and five hits through seven complete innings vs. the Reds. He had 5 K's and 1 walk with the Brewers winning by a score of 5-1.

The Astros know that Wolf is capable of getting it done. The last time (and only time this season) that Wolf faced Houston he allowed only four hits through seven shutout innings. Milwaukee won by a score of 6-1.

Unlike Wolf, Wesley Wright has yet to demonstrate that he's capable of getting it done in the starter's role. He's made two starts and the Astros lost them by a combined score of 19-9. In his lone home start he allowed eight hits and four runs through just five innings. That translates to a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.

With Wolf getting the better of Wright, I expect the Brewers to bounce back and avoid the sweep. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Braves won yesterday's series opener, earning a 6-5 victory in extra innings. I expect the Reds to bounce back and even things up this afternoon.

Even with yesterday's results, the Braves are just 25-30 on the road while the Reds are a respectable 31-23 at home.

Arroyo has been great in four of his last five starts. He entered his 7/21 showdown vs. Strasburgh and the Nationals having gone 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his previous three starts.

Perhaps too excited about facing the rookie phenom, Arroyo didn't pitch well (7 runs in 5 2/3 innings) in that game. He bounced right back with another quality start last time out though, allowing three runs, on just three hits, through eight complete innings. Even with the bad start vs. Washington, he's still got a 3.38 ERA his last five. Opposing hitters are batting just .198 against him for the month. For the season, Arroyo is 10-6 with a respectable 4.21 ERA and a solid 1.184 WHIP. He's got a 3.71 ERA during the afternoon. The Reds are a profitable 13-8 (+4.4) in his starts.

Jurrjens has made fewer starts but has similar overall numbers (4.37 ERA, 1.239 WHIP) to Arroyo. However, like many Braves, a closer look reveals that he's been much better at home than he's been on the road. In fact, he's been awful away from Atlanta. In five road starts, he's 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA. The Braves were 1-4 (-3.7) in those games. Additionally, note that Jurrjens is also 0-3 with a 7.27 ERA when pitching during the afternoon.

Yesterday's game went to extra innings and neither starter went more than five innings. Therefore, its worth mentioning that Arroyo averages 6 2/3 innings per start while Jurrjens averages 5 2/3, including just 4 2/3 innings on the road. (Note that the Reds had Thursday off while the Braves faced Washington and had to sit through a rain delay.)

Also, note that Jurrjens is 0-2 (Braves are 0-3) with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts vs. the Reds, including 0-1 with a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Great American Ball Park. Conversely, Arroyo is 5-3 (Reds are 7-4) in 11 starts vs. the Braves. He last faced them last September and allowed just one run in seven innings, en route to earning a 3-1 Cincinnati victory.

The Reds are 10-4 (+5.1) when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. These teams just met in Texas last weekend, with the Rangers taking three out of four. The Angels have won five of the last seven series meetings here at LA though and I expect them to have the advantage for this evening's series opener.

In addition to playing at home, note that the Angels had yesterday off while the Rangers played an evening game vs. Oakland.

A closer look at the recent series, at Texas, reveals that the one game that the Angels won, was when today's starting pitcher, Ervin Santana, was on the mound.

Santana is a respectable 9-7 on the season but he's pitched better than that record indicates. For the season, he's got a very solid 3.55 ERA with 115 K's to go along with just 42 walks. He's been at his best lately, too. Last time out, he pitched eight innings, vs. these same Rangers, allowing just five hits and two runs. He had 8 K's with just two walks. It was the third time in his last four starts that he has pitched into the eighth inning and he's gone a minimum of seven complete innings in all four of those. Over his last three starts, he's got an outstanding 1.57 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

Prior to last weekend, Santana had struggled at Texas. However, he's pitched very well vs. the Rangers here at Anaheim. The Angels are 5-2 in Santana's seven home start vs. Texas. He allowed three earned runs or less in five of those seven starts and two or less in four of them. His last home start vs. Texas came last September. Santana tossed a complete game and the Angels won 11-0, clinching the AL West title and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Feldman was originally slated to get the call for the Rangers. However, he's really struggled and Tommy Hunter is now expected to get the nod. Hunter admittedly has been having a great season. He's going on one less day's rest than Santana though and he got rocked in his only appearance here in Anaheim. In fact, that was the 11-0 game that Santana won. In that game, Hunter allowed seven runs in 2 2/3 innings. Note that the Angels would have been favored in about the -140 range, if Feldman was pitching. Now, with Hunter getting the call, we're able to get the Angels at a far more reasonable price.

The Rangers are a very good team and they've gotten stronger with the additions of Cliff Lee and more recently Jorge Cantu. That said, the Angels are a better team than they've shown recently and this game and series is arguably bigger (more important) for them. The Angels have gone 29-19 (+7.8) the past 48 times that they had the previous day off. During that stretch, they were also 13-9 (+3.3) after having lost three or more consecutive games. They badly need a victory here and behind another big game from Santana, I expect them to get one. *10

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. Both these teams have really struggled since the All Star Break and both just got swept in their last series. The Royals have been better overall though and I expect them to have the advantage here.

The Royals have both the schedule and venue in their favor. They played here yesterday afternoon. On the other hand, the Orioles played an evening game at Toronto. With yesterday's loss, the O's are now a dismal 13-37 on the road. By comparison, KC's 20-28 home record begins to look very good. Note that the Royals are a respectable 18-12 (+1.7) the last 30 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. During the same stretch, the O's are a money-burning 15-33 (-16.4) as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range.

Davies gets the call and he beat the Yankees last time out. While his 4.91 ERA over his last three starts isn't that good, note that the Royals have won all three of those games. In fact, they're 11-8 in his 19 starts overall, including 4-0 the last four. Davies has now allowed four earned runs or less in six straight starts.

Matusz was a little better in his last start. That's not saying much though. He still gave up nine baserunners and three runs, in five innings. He also still took the loss. That brings him to 0-2 with a terrible 12.10 ERA and 2.689 WHIP his last three starts. He's averaged just 3.2 innings in those games. Overall, the O's are an ugly 5-15 in his 20 starts.

While neither offense has done much lately, the Royals have hit much better than the O's overall. KC entered yesterday's game hitting .288 at home, averaging 4.4 runs. Baltimore entered yesterday's game averaging 3.5 runs per game on the road, hitting .252.

While the O's have absolutely no hope of avoiding last in the challenging AL East, the Royals have managed to stay somewhat competitive in the AL Central. That, combined with the fact that they're playing at home, should provide them with some motivation here. As right fielder Willie Bloomquist noted: "You can't allow this atmosphere to become a losing atmosphere again. It's been that way for too long. We've worked too hard to get it going in the right direction to throw up our hands now." Facing the team with the worst record in the majors, I expect KC to get back on track with a much needed victory. *10

I'm playing on Baltimore and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished well above the number, a 9-5 victory for the Jays. The UNDER is still 7-3 in 10 meetings between these teams this season though and I'm expecting to see far better pitching this evening.

In eight home starts, Romero has gone 4-2 with an outstanding 2.16 ERA and 0.994 WHIP. He's averaged 7 1/3 innings per start here and has 57 K's in 58 innings. Actually, his numbers here were a lot better prior to his last home start, a 07/11 game vs. Boston. Before getting roughed up by the Red Sox, he was 4-1 with a microscopic 1.45 ERA and 0.893 WHIP here. Either way, one bad start can't take away from his very strong home numbers. Besides, he bounced back from that start by holding these same Orioles to just two unearned runs through seven innings. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is a profitable 6-2 in his eight starts here.

Romero will face a Baltimore team which is averaging only 3.5 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting a mere .248. Note that the UNDER is 19-12-1 in their games vs. left-handers.

Not surprisingly, Romero has dominated the O's in both this season's meetings. He's thrown 16 innings allowing three runs, only one of them earned. That translates to a 0.56 ERA. Those games both stayed below the total, finishing with scores of 6-1 and 4-2. For his career, Romero has seen the UNDER go 5-1 in six starts vs. Baltimore.

Admittedly, Millwood's numbers aren't very good. He generally pitches the Jays tough though. In 11 career starts against Toronto, Millwood has allowed four earned runs or less nine times, including five straight. He's allowed three earned runs or less in seven of those 11 starts overall. He also went at least six complete innings in each of his last four starts vs. the Jays, going seven or greater in three of those. Overall, the UNDER is 4-0 in Millwood's last four starts vs. the Jays and 8-3 overall.

The Orioles have now seen the UNDER go 28-19-1 on the road. That includes a profitable 10-4 UNDER record when playing a road game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. I look for those numbers to improve here. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Red Sox spoiled Dan Haren's LA debut last night, earning a 6-3 victory in the series opener. Tonight, I expect the Angels to bounce back and even the series.

John Lackey goes for the Red Sox. Naturally, he'll be fired up to face his former team and will be motivated to deliver a strong performance. He's coming off a great game at Seattle. However, that game notwithstanding, he's really struggled away from Boston this season. In nine road starts, he's gone just 2-3 with a poor 4.47 ERA and 1.594 WHIP. He had nearly as many walks (30) as K's (33) and Red Sox were a money-burning 3-6 (-4.1) in those games. Lackey doesn't figure to get much in the way of run support.

That's because Jered Weaver has been absolutely outstanding here. He's made nine home starts and has gone 4-1 with a superb 1.80 ERA and 0.967 WHIP. He's averaging 6 2/3 innings per home start and has an extremely impressive 66 K's to just 14 walks, in 60 innings here. Opposing hitters are batting only .198 in those games.

While the Angels have seen Lackey once this season (back on 5/5) the Red Sox haven't seen Weaver since last October. Advantage LA.

Red Sox relievers entered this series with an ugly 5.19 ERA and 1.523 WHIP on the road this season. Angel relievers entered the series with a respectable 3.91 ERA at home. Advantage LA.

Even with yesterday's victory, the Red Sox are still just 5-7 their last 12 games. That brings them to 33-37 in the month of July, the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Angels are now 46-27 in the month of July.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Angels are still 9-5 the last 14 times that they hosted the Red Sox. Behind another strong outing from Santana, I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I won with the A's yesterday, a 10-2 blowout. The A's are now an excellent 23-10 (+14.6) during the afternoon. I expect them to have the advantage again here.

Braden checks in with a very solid 3.06 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 10 home starts. He averages 6 1/2 innings per start here, recording 43 K's to just eight walks. He's now got a game under his belt, as this will be his second start since returning from injury. After his last start he was quoted as saying: "We won. The elbow is not out on the mound. The elbow is on the arm. All signs are positive."

Hudson makes just his third start of the season for the Sox. He did pitch well at Seattle last time out but still has a poor 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP overall. Here, he'll face an Oakland team which has scored five or more runs in nine of its last 11 games. Over that 11 game stretch, the A's are averaging a whopping 6.2 per game.

Braden delivered a quality start (3 runs in 7 innings, back in 2008) in his only start vs. Chicago. He didn't get a decision but his team won by a score of 6-4. Here, he'll face a Chicago lineup which comes in hitting just .243 vs. southpaw starters.

With this being an afternoon game, it should be noted that Braden has been much better in the day than he has been at night. Indeed, he's 1-6 with a 4.11 ERA at night but 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA during the day. Opposing batters are hitting .297 against him at night but just .229 during the day. (Last season, he had a 3.18 ERA during the day and a 4.39 ERA at night.)

While its true that the Sox have been great since early June, note that the A's are now 5-2 their last seven home games and a red hot 8-2 their last 10 games overall. They're also 11-7 the last 18 times that they were a host in this series. I expect them to keep the positive momentum rolling for another day. *10

I'm playing on Cincinnati and Houston to finish UNDER the total. Even with the first two games of this series having each finished above the closing total, the UNDER is still 13-7 the last 20 times that the Reds traveled to Houston. I expect those numbers to improve this afternoon.

Wandy Rodriguez goes for the Astros and, as usual, he's been stronger at home than on the road. Of course, that's been the case for his entire career. For his career, Rodriguez has a poor 5.30 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road but a very solid 3.66 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home. His last three home starts have all been of the "quality" variety, as he's allowed just four earned runs over 19 combined innings. That translates to a 1.89 ERA. He's now allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his last 17 home starts. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 10-4-1 his last 15 starts here.

Unlike Rodriguez, Mike Leake has been stronger when pitching on the road. In seven road starts, he's got a stellar 2.66 ERA and a solid 1.247 WHIP, while averaging nearly seven innings. He's given up 12 home runs overall but only three of them have come on the road. Overall, he's 7-1 with a 3.45 ERA.

It should also be noted that Rodriguez has been much better during the day over his career, than during the evening. He's got a 3.75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP during the afternoon but a 4.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP at night. This season, his daytime ERA (4.46) is again far better than his 5.51 ERA under the lights.

Note that Leake has a 3.25 ERA during the day, which is better than his 3.55 ERA, when pitching under the lights.

Overall, the Reds have seen the UNDER go a profitable 19-9-5 when playing during the afternoon. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 74-52-12 the past few seasons, when the Reds have played during the day. During the same stretch, the UNDER is 68-50-6, when the Astros have played during the day.

Counting yesterday's 7-0 game as an 'over,' (was a push for early bettors) the UNDER is now 113-74-10 in Houston's divisional games, the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Astros have seen the UNDER go 35-25 when listed as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, numbers I expect to improve this afternoon. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The White Sox have had some recent success here at Oakland and they won yesterday's game. However, the A's are still 7-2 their last nine games and I expect them to have the advantage this afternoon.

Mazzaro gets the call and he's been superb recently. In fact, he's 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA his last four starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run in 7 2/3 innings. Including that gem, he has now pitched at least seven innings in four of his past five starts For the season, he's got a very solid 3.33 ERA and 1.222 WHIP as a starter.

Oakland's Jack Cust noted of Mazzaro: "Vin's been great. He's got the stuff, it's just the confidence behind it and throwing the ball with that confidence. When you're facing pitchers that have confidence, even if they make mistakes, if they're throwing the ball with confidence, you can tell as a hitter."

Garcia goes for the Sox. He's been fortunate to receive a lot of run support on the road, something which isn't likely to happen here, but has not pitched particularly well away from Chicago. In nine road starts, he's got a poor 5.03 ERA and 1.472 WHIP.

Recent success notwithstanding, the Sox have not fared well in this role. In fact, they're 28-44 (-12.8) the past few seasons, when playing on the road with a line in the +100 to +125 range.

Note that Mazzaro has had more success against today's opponent than has Garcia. Mazzaro has a 0.00 ERA (0 runs in 6 1/3 shutout innings) vs. Chicago. Garcia, on the other hand, has a 4.98 ERA when facing Oakland.

Also, note that Mazzaro has a 2.82 ERA during the day while Garcia has a 4.84 ERA when he's pitched during the afternoon. As a team, the A's are an excellent 22-10 (+13.6) during the afternoon. With Mazzaro getting the better of Garcia, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on Oakland and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. These teams have seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 the last 20 times that they have faced each other. This figures to be another well-pitched affair.

Cahill is having a very strong season. He checks in at 9-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's been particularly dominant here at Oakland. Indeed, he's 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in seven starts here. Opposing hitters are batting only .206 against him overall and just .200 here at home. In his last home start, Cahill limited the Angels to a single unearned run through seven innings, earning a 5-2 victory.

Buehrle's season stats are still fairly mediocre. He's 8-8 with a 4.18 ERA on the season. However, he's been much better than that lately.

Indeed, he's 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in his last seven starts and 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA in his last five on the road.

For the season, Buehrle has seen the UNDER go 7-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Cahill has seen the UNDER go 6-0-1 at home.

Both starting pitchers are supported by solid bullpens. Chicago relievers have a combined 3.04 ERA on the road. Oakland relievers have a combined 2.79 ERA (1.129 WHIP) at home.

The White Sox have seen the UNDER go 36-18-1 the last 55 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, including 9-2 their last 11 in that role. Meanwhile, the A's have seen the UNDER go 30-19-4 the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

The A's typically don't score all that many runs vs. southpaws. They're averaging only 4.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters, down slightly from their overall average. They've seen the UNDER go 15-9-1 their last 25 against southpaw starters and 73-49-6 the past few seasons. Given Cahill's commanding stats here, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *10

I'm playing on DETROIT. I played against the Jays yesterday and they closed out their series vs. the Royals with a 5-2 loss. The Tigers fared much better, as they closed out their series with Texas with an important victory. Both today's starters have been signficantly better at home. With this game being played at Detroit, I expect the Tigers to have the advantage on the mound. I also look for them to carry some positive momentum from yesterday's victory into this afternoon's contest.

Verlander has never beaten the Jays in three starts - although Detroit did win his most recent start against them. I expect that to change this afternoon. Verlander checks in at 11-5 with a 3.86 ERA on the season. While he's got a poor 4.99 ERA on the road, he's 6-2 with an excellent 2.70 ERA here at home. He's also 3-0 over his last four starts and has a 2.95 ERA his last three starts.

Like Verlander, Romero has also pitched well this season. He's 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA. Also like Verlander, he's been much better at home. When pitching in Toronto, Romero is 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting only .192 against him there. However, on the road, he's just 3-4 with a poor 4.71 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .290 against him on the road.

Unlike Verlander, Romero's had some problems lately. Even after a strong performance in his last start, he's still 1-2 with a 9.75 ERA over his last three starts. It's also interesting to note that Romero had a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts in the second half of 2009.

One of those poor second half starts came here, last September, in his lone career start at Detroit. In that game, Romero allowed 10 hits and walked three batters, giving up four runs in six innings. He took the loss, as the Tigers won 7-2.

The Tigers have had plenty of success vs. southpaws. They're 16-9 (+7.3) their last 25 against left-handed starters and are hitting .287 (averaging 5 rpg) against them for the season. Looking back further and we find them at a lucrative 71-51 (+12.4) against left-handed starters, the past few seasons.

While the Jays are 5-6 in Romero's road starts, the Tigers are 7-2 when Verlander has started at home. Also, note that the Jays are a money-burning 16-29 (-7.4) the last 45 times that they were road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range.

Given the Tigers' excellent home record and the Jays mediocre road record, I feel the price is very fair. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. After getting pounded 6-1 in Monday's opener and then blanked 4-0 yesterday, the Mariners are on the verge of getting swept. Today, however, they send their ace, Felix Hernandez, to the mound. I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed victory.

King Felix has been doing his thing again this season. In 20 starts, he's got a superb 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's averaging 7.3 innings per start and has 134 K's to just 42 walks. That includes an impressive 70-18 K/W ratio here at home. In 10 home starts, Hernandez has gone 5-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.134 WHIP.

Hernandez has been at his best lately, too. Indeed, he's 3-1 with an outstanding 1.59 ERA in his last six starts, going the distance four times, including in each of his last two starts.

Hernandez hasn't faced the White Sox yet this season. However, he absolutely dominated them last year. In two starts vs. Chicago, he allowed 10 hits and 0 runs in 15 combined innings. Seattle won those two games by a combined score of 10-1. In those 15 innings, Hernandez had a very impressive 19 K's.

Like Hernandez, Floyd has been pitching very well lately. Unlike Hernandez, he hasn't had much success against today's opponent. In fact, he's 0-3 with an awful 9.49 ERA in three starts at Safeco Field, lasting only 12 1/3 combined innings. Overall, he's 1-4 with an ugly 8.05 ERA and 1.846 WHIP vs. the Mariners.

Note that Seattle has already seen Floyd once this season, while Chicago has yet to see Hernandez.

The Mariners haven't been swept here by the White Sox since way back in 1994. Given Hernandez's dominance vs. Chicago and Floyd's struggles here at Seattle, I don't expect it to happen today. *10

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Indians come in on a roll and easily grabbed yesterday's opener. However, as Cleveland outfielder Trevor Crowe noted: "The Twins are a good team. They're going to come back ready to play." I agree with Crowe and expect the Twins to bounce back in a big way here.

Note that even with yesterday's result, the Twins are still 5-2 the last seven times that they hosted the Twins and 14-6 the last 20.

Slowey gets the call for the home team. While he's had some trouble recently, he's had plenty of success against the Tribe. Indeed, he's won four in a row against Cleveland and he's 2-0 with a stellar 2.77 ERA vs. the Indians this season. Overall, he's 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.105 WHIP vs. the Indians.

Also, note that even with a rough outing here last time, Slowey is still 5-3 with a respectable 4.15 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The Twins are a profitable 14-6 his last 20 home starts, dating back to last season.

Masterson goes for the visitors and he's had real trouble on the road. In 10 road starts, he's gone 1-5 (Indians are 2-8) with an ugly 6.75 ERA and 1.904 WHIP.

Note that Masterson is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 2.00 WHIP vs. the Twins.

Slowey has 45 K's and just 11 walks at home (69/19 overall). Masterson has 42 K's with 34 walks on the road.

Slowey also figures to have the better bullpen behind him. The Twins relievers have a 3.12 ERA and 1.223 WHIP on the season, including a 3.43 ERA at home. The Indians' relievers have a 4.48 ERA including an awful 5.60 ERA and 1.734 WHIP on the road.

The Indians average 4.1 runs per game on the road, hitting .251. The Twins average 5.1 runs per game at home, hitting .294.

Yes, the Twins are still without Morneau. However, the Indians are without a couple of their own regulars, including Shin-Soo Choo, who leads the team in most offensive categories.

Given the venue and the numerous advantages that Minnesota should enjoy, I feel the price is more than fair. I expect the Twins to bounce back and for them to snap Cleveland's winning streak. *10

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. The Dodgers haven't fared too well in the first three games of this series. Not only are they 0-3 but they've also been outscored by a combined score of 17-5. In fact, they've struggled here, during the regular season, for several years. They won here in the playoffs last year though, so they have the confidence to know that they can do so. More importantly, I expect them to enjoy an edge on the mound.

It's generally unwise to over-react to one start, good or bad. However, when a pitcher strings together a few really good (or really bad) ones in a row, it becomes easier to know what to expect. In this case, Padilla is currently in a major zone while Suppan is currently in a major funk.

Padilla checks in having gone 3-0 with an outstanding 1.25 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his last three starts, averaging greater than seven innings in those outings. In 21 2/3 innings, he's recorded 20 K's with just two walks, allowing only 11 hits and three runs. The Dodgers won those games by a combined score of 22-5. Last time out, he held the Cubs to two hits through eight shutout innings. In his last road starts, he limited the Giants to three hits and one run through seven innings. For the season, he has a respectable 4.20 ERA and a very good 1.042 WHIP. In 55 2/3 innings, he has 54 K's and just 10 walks.

On the other hand, Suppan is now 0-5 with an awful 6.55 ERA and 1.945 WHIP. He's averaging less than five innings per start. In 55 innings, he has 30 K's with just 23 walks. He's not getting any better here, as he's 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 2.021 WHIP, his last three starts.

While Suppan has been mediocre vs. LA, Padilla has enjoyed success when starting against St. Louis. He's 3-0 his last three starts vs. the Cardinals and is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts against them for his career. He dominated them here last October, allowing four hits through seven shutout innings. The Dodgers won that one by a 5-1 score.

I expect Padilla to deliver another quality effort as the Dodgers bounce back, avoiding the sweep and earning Joe Torre a victory on his 70th birthday. *10

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The White Sox entered the series as the much hotter team and they grabbed Thursday's opener. The Twins bounced back with a solid 7-4 victory yesterday though. I expect the Twins to build some positive momentum from that victory and look for them to make it two in a row this evening.

Pavano goes for the Twins and he's been excellent lately. In fact, he's 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in his last seven starts. For the season, he's 10-6 with a 3.58 ERA. Additionally, note that Pavano is 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA in six starts against Chicago.

Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer had this to say of Pavano, after his last start: "Carl has been our stopper so far this year. He went out there and did it again today."

Buehrle is also off a strong game and has also pitched well in recent weeks. He's 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA his last five starts at Minnesota though and he was mediocre (4 runs on 8 hits) when facing the Twins, at Chicago, back in April. Speaking of mediocre, he's just 8-7 on the season.

The Twins badly need to string together some victories. After yesterday's win, manager Ron Gardenhire noted: "We need to get on the right track. We've been floundering here for about a month. The crowds are coming out to support this baseball team, and we need to play a better brand of baseball for 'em. Tonight, hopefully that's a good start."

The Twins, who hit a lot better at home than the White Sox do on the road, have been excellent as home favorites in this range the past few seasons. They've also dominated the Sox, when the teams have met here at Minnesota. In fact, yesterday's victory brought the Twins to 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. Behind another quality effort from Pavano, I expect them to build on those stats with another victory. *10

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. Home teams won five of seven yesterday. Here's another spot where I feel the home team will start the second half with a victory. The break came at a good time for the Royals, as they'd lost three straight. They're still 6-4 their last 10 though and had a respectable (for them) first half overall. They've got their ace back on the mound here and they're facing a pitcher that they've hit well against.

Greinke has been bothered by a nagging injury and missed his last start. That was for 'precautionary measures' though and he's still been pitching very well, despite the injury. Indeed, he's gone a minimum of six innings in seven of his last eight outings and has 47 K's with just eight walks since the beginning of June. Last time out, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings, recording nine K's.

Regulars know that Gio Gonzalez has been good to me again this season. They also know that Gonzalez has been much better at home and during the day than he has been on the road and at night. Gonzalez is 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA at home. However, he's 3-3 with a 4.71 ERA at night. Gonzalez's day/night stats are even more revealing. He's 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA in five afternoon starts. However, he's 3-6 with a poor 4.98 ERA in 13 evening starts.

Note: Unlike Gonzalez, Greinke has pitched better during the evening, than he has during the afternoon.

Greinke has also enjoyed more success against today's opponent than Gonzalez. Greinke is 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA vs. Oakland. Gonzalez is 0-1 with a poor 7.71 ERA and 1.668 WHIP in two starts vs. KC.

One might be surprised to learn that the Royals' relievers have a combined 4.04 ERA at home, which is much better than Oakland's relievers' combined 5.18 ERA (1.663 WHIP) on the road.

The Royals are hitting an impressive .294 at home, averaging 4.6 runs here. On the other hand, the A's are hitting .259 on the road, averaging a mere 3.9 runs per game.

The Royals are 4-2 the last six times that they hosted the A's and I look for them to start the series with another victory. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. Having limped into the All Star Break, the Angels badly need to start the second half with a victory. I think this matchup presents the perfect opportunity.

Manager Mike Scioscia has elected to go with Joel Pineiro. Given Pineiro's recent performance, that's probably a wise move. Indeed, Pineiro is 6-1 his last nine starts, going a least six innings in all nine of those starts.

Over his last six starts, Pineiro has allowed nine runs in 44 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.83 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in all six of those starts, including one or less in four of them.

For the season, Pineiro is 6-2 with a stellar 2.22 ERA in 10 home starts, averaging 6.9 innings in those starts. Opposing batters are hitting .309 against him on the road but just .230 at home.

Given his opponent's recent form, Pineiro should receive some run support here. Fister is off a quality start. However, that was at home, vs. KC.

Prior to that, he'd recorded an ugly 7.71 ERA in his previous three starts. For the season, Fister is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in five road starts. He's averaged just 5.1 innings in those starts, most recently a 7-1 loss at Detroit.

The Mariners are a money-burning 60-82 (-26.5) against divisional opponents the past few seasons, including a dismal 7-21 mark this season. The Angels are a respectable 16-11 (+4) against divisional opponents this season, going 82-59 the past few. Not surprisingly, the Angels are 7-2 the last nine meetings in the series (5-0 L5) and 31-16 (+12.7) the last 47. Badly needing a victory, I expect them to continue that dominance here. *10

I'm playing on Boston and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series both finished well above the total. This afternoon's finale has the highest O/U line of the three games. Yet, I expect it to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch.

Litsch wasn't very good last time out. He was very sharp in his previous start though (2 runs on 4 hits through 6 complete innings) and he's always fared well vs. the Red Sox. In six starts vs. Boston, he's gone 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in five of those six starts, including two or less in four of them. In three home starts vs. Boston, he's allowed three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.53 ERA.

Like Litsch, Matsuzaka has enjoyed plenty of success vs. today's opponent. Indeed, he's 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.091 WHIP vs. the Jays. He faced them once this season and allowed just three hits and one run through seven innings. In that game, he had nine K's with zero walks. The final score was 6-1. That was at Boston. In his most recent start here at Toronto, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings, a 3-0 Boston victory. Overall, he's got a microscopic 0.64 ERA his last two vs. the Jays and a 2.70 ERA his last three starts, here at Toronto.

The Red Sox have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Given the past success of both starters against today's opponent, I expect those numbers to improve here. *10

I'm playing on ARIZONA. These teams have split the first two meetings of this series. Arizona won the opener. Florida won yesterday. Today, I expect it to be the Diamondbacks with the advantage.

Kennedy has had some problems on the road lately and he got roughed up (7 runs in 5 2/3 innings!) here at home in his last start. That hasn't happened often, here in the desert though. Prior to that, Kennedy had a superb 2.41 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in six home starts, four of them Arizona victories. Even with the bad outing, he's still got a very solid 3.47 ERA and 1.028 WHIP here at home.

Today, Kennedy will have the advantage of starting against the Marlins for the first time. He also should benefit from some run support.

Robertson gets the call for Florida and he's been horrible lately. He's got a 7.12 ERA his last six starts. Over his last three starts, he's got a terrible 7.54 ERA and 1.745 WHIP. For the season, Robertson has an ugly 5.83 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the road.

Kennedy averages 6.7 innings per home start. Robertson averages 5.1 innings per road start.

Kennedy has 46 K's and 12 walks at home. Robertson has 26 K's and 20 walks on the road.

Robertson's lone start at Arizona saw him allow four runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Dbax won 4-0.

The Marlins have been on the road since playing in Puerto Rico on June 28. After the weekend, they finally return home. They may be getting a little road weary here. I look for the Diamondbacks to jump all over Robertson and for Arizona to bounce back with a victory. *10

I'm playing on San Francisco and Washington to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total. The Giants managed only one run on four hits. However, the Nationals erupted for eight runs. That game could have easily been lower-scoring though as the score was 2-1 entering the bottom of the 6th inning. Today's O/U line is significantly higher. Yet, I expect a lower-scoring affair.

Sanchez gets the call for the visitors and he's been very solid. For the season, he's got a 3.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. In his last start, he held the Brewers to one run through six complete innings. He did struggle with his control in that game but pitched well enough to avoid trouble.

Catcher Buster Posey had this to say of Sanchez's last start: "He got out of a lot of tough situations. That's going to be huge for him because he's got as good of stuff as anybody." For the season, he has 98 K's with 51 walks, through 100 innings.

Sanchez has also been very good vs. Washington. In two career starts vs. the Nationals, he's got a 2.19 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Both games stayed below the total. He last faced Washington in 2008 and allowed just four hits, through seven shutout innings.

Stammen's stats admittedly aren't that good and he's coming off a tough start. However, keep in mind that he'd closed June with back to back gems. In those two games, he allowed just three runs through 14 combined innings. Prior to his bad outing vs. the Mets, Stammen had allowed four earned runs or less in eight straight home starts.

While his home ERA (4.71) isn't impressive, (it was far better before his last start) Stammen does have a respectable 1.238 WHIP in seven starts here. He's averaged six innings in those starts and has 22 K's with just four walks.

Stammen was solid in this season's previous start vs. the Giants. In that 5/27 outing, he allowed just five hits three runs, only two of them earned, through 6 1/3 innings.

The Nationals have seen the UNDER go 9-2-3 when playing at home with a line in the +100 to +125 range. I look for those stats to improve, as this one proves lower-scoring than expected. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers have been humbled by the Giants this week, having just been on the wrong side of a 4-game sweep. This is an entirely different series though and Pittsburgh figures to be an ideal opponent. The Pirates are awful away from Pittsburgh. They've lost 21 of their last 23 road games and are 11-35 on the season. They managed only one hit yesterday.

Doug Davis returns from the DL (heart condition) and that should be good news for the Brewers. Davis hasn't pitched in nearly two months in the major leagues. However, he was very sharp in his last rehab outing for Triple-A Nashville. In that game, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. We can't expect him to go the distance here - but I do expect him to be solid.

Given his dominance of the Pirates last season, Davis is picking a good day to make his return. He comes back right when his team needs him most and he gets to face an opponent which he went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA against last season.

Even better for Davis, he should receive some decent run support.

Paul Maholm gets the call for the Pirates and he's been dismal lately. Over his last three starts, he's gone 1-2 with a 9.75 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. In 12 innings, he's given up 24 hits and 16 runs, (13 earned) walking six while striking out only three.

While Davis should be happy to see the Pirates, Maholm should be dreading seeing the Brewers. Indeed, he's 1-6 with a 5.27 ERA in 13 starts against Milwaukee since 2007. The Brewers have the advantage of already having seen him twice this season, too. Maholm had a 5.14 ERA in those games.

The Brewers are still a respectable 25-22 the past few seasons, when coming off three or more consecutive losses. On the other hand, the Pirates, who just lost three straight to Houston, are a money-burning 35-65 when coming off three straight losses, during the same stretch.

The Pirates won their last two games here. They're still 2-22 their last 24 here at Milwaukee though. I expect the Brewers to bounce back with a much needed victory, resuming their homefield dominance in this series. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers have been pounded in the first three games of this series, getting outscored by a combined score of 27-4. After losing 6-1 on both Monday and Tuesday, they were embarrassed by a score of 15-2 yesterday. The Giants haven't swept a 4-game road series for more than two years though and they've never swept a 4-game series here at Milwaukee. I expect them to have their hands full with what should be a highly motivated Milwaukee team.

After yesterday's blowout loss, Brewers' third baseman Casey McGehee had this to say about today's game: "It's a test of your manhood. You can shrivel up and die, or you can come out tomorrow and give it all you got..." In this case, I expect it to be the latter.

Zito gets the call for the Giants. He has only one win in his last nine starts and that came back on June 12. He's also 0-3 with a terrible 7.58 ERA in his last five road starts. (He allowed five or more earned runs in four of those games.) Additionally, he's 0-3 with an even worse 7.88 ERA in five starts, here at Miller Park, since being acquired by the Giants in 2007.

Parra hasn't been great but he hasn't been terrible, either. He's got a fairly respectable 4.45 ERA on the season (including a 3.86 ERA during the afternoon) and has more K's (66) than innings pitched. He allowed five runs last time out. However, he'd allowed four or less in ALL seven of this season's previous starts, including three or less in six of them. Note that the Brewers are 6-3 in Parra's last nine home starts.

While they beat a southpaw yesterday, the Giants are still 51-64 (-14) against left-handed starters, the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Brewers have gone a healthy 66-54 (+5.1) against southpaw starters. I expect the Brewers to improve on those stats as they "come out and give it all they've got," bouncing back and avoiding the sweep. *10

I'm playing on the NY METS. After dropping Monday's series opener, the Mets bounced back with a 3-0 shutout victory yesterday. They're now an extremely impressive 29-13 at home this season. With a red hot starter on the mound, I expect them to keep rolling for another day.

Niese gets the call and he's gone a perfect 5-0 with a stellar 2.43 ERA in his last six games. The Mets were a perfect 6-0 in those games, winning them by a combined score of 42-14. In fact, looking back further and we find the Mets are a profitable 10-2 the last 12 times that Niese took the mound. He allowed one earned run or less in seven of those 12 starts.

Last time out, Niese limited the Nationals to one run and six hits through seven innings. He had 8 K's and 0 walks. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "I think if I'm able to throw all my pitches for strikes, I think I have a good variety that keeps them off-balance."

Arroyo is also coming off a strong start. He wasn't that good in his previous start though and his 4.30 ERA on the road is only mediocre.

The Mets have hit better (.272 average, 4.8 runs per game) at home than the Reds (4.5 rpg, .258 avg) have on the road. The Mets bullpen has also been fantastic here. Indeed, NY relievers have a combined 1.98 ERA here at home.

Including yesterday's result, the Reds are a money-burning 37-50 (-7.9) the last 87 times that they played a road game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. During the same stretch, the Mets have gone a lucrative 51-28 (+20.8) when playing a home game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5. All things considered, getting the Mets at this price seems more than fair. *10

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros just got swept at San Diego but this figures to be a good spot to bounce back with a victory. For starters, they're back home now, after having yesterday off. Also, they're facing a Pittsburgh team which has the fewest road wins (11) in the National League and which has a worse overall record than they do. Additionally, the Astros have dominated the Pirates here, winning 13 of the 16 meetings here at Houston. The Pirates have scored only 13 runs in their last seven games here at Minute Maid Park. They've also got a starter on the mound who is currently in excellent form.

Wandy Rodriguez doesn't have great stats for the season. However, he's been exceptional has last two starts. Indeed, he's gone 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA. Most recently, he went into Milwaukee and limited the Brewers to one run through seven complete innings. He struck out six and walked only one, en route to earning a 5-1 Houston victory. That was on the road but Wandy has always been a much better pitcher here at home, throughout his career.

He's also dominated the Pirates, when facing them here at Houston. In five home starts vs. Pittsburgh, he's gone 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA. Houston was a perfect 5-0 in those games.

Admittedly, rookie Brad Lincoln is also coming off a very strong start of his own. He's still a rookie though and this will be his third straight road start. His team only hits .237 on the road though, averaging three runs per road game. Additionally, he's supported by a bullpen which has a combined 5.28 ERA on the road. (Houston scores 3.5 rpg at home and Astro relievers have a 4.52 ERA here - not very good, but still far better than Pittsburgh's numbers.)

I expect Rodriguez to continue his recent hot pitching and for the Astros to continue their dominance in this series. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the CHICAGO CUBS. The Cubs earned a much needed victory yesterday, bouncing back with a 3-1 victory. I expect them to generate some positive momentum from that result and look for them to follow it up with another victory this afternoon.

Lilly has been very sharp lately. Last time out, he allowed one run over seven complete innings. The Cubs won 3-1. In his previous start, he allowed one run over six complete innings. The Cubs won 3-2. Over those two starts, Lilly has 11 K's with just one walk. For the season, he has a very solid 3.12 ERA and an excellent 1.061 WHIP.

Leake got rocked last time out, allowing six runs in six innings. While his season stats remain solid, he's now 0-1 with a poor 6.85 ERA in his last four starts.

This will be the third time that the Cubs will have faced Leake this season, so they should be very familiar with him by now. On the other hand, this will be Lilly's first 2010 start against the Reds. Note that Lilly dominated Cincinnati last season. In two 2009 starts vs. the Reds, he allowed a single unearned run through 13 complete innings.

Lilly has now allowed one earned run or less in four of his past five starts and three or less in six of his last seven. I expect him to deliver another quality effort and for the Cubs to salvage the series split. *10

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. It's true that the Rays have been very good on the road. However, the Twins have also been very good at home and they've always been extremely strong as home favorites in this range. In fact, they're a highly profitable 45-19 (+18.6) the last 64 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, including an impressive 14-2 the last 16. They rallied for a 2-1 win yesterday and I expect them to have the edge this afternoon.

Liriano has a very solid 3.47 ERA and 1.257 WHIP this season. Even after a rare poor outing last time out, his home ERA remains a very good 3.12. He's averaging 6 2/3 innings per start, including seven at home. In 98 2/3 innings, he's got an outstanding 106 K's with just 27 walks. Those are much better numbers than Davis brings to the table.

Davis is 5-9 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. On the road, he's gone 2-3 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He's averaging only 5 1/2 innings per start, including just five on the road. He's got far fewer K's (57) than Liriano to go along with more (38) walks.

While Davis hasn't started against the Twins, Liriano has pitched very well against the Rays. In four starts against Tampa, he's gone 2-1 with a stellar 2.39 ERA and 1.177 WHIP. The Twins were 3-1 in those games, including 2-0 here at Minnesota.

Including yesterday's victory, the Twins are now a commanding 15-5 the last 20 times that they hosted the Ray. With Liriano on the mound, I expect them to continue that homefield series dominance here. *10

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Tigers are 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the Mariners, including 9-4 the last 13. I expect them to have the advantage in this evening's series opener.

The Mariners played yesterday, losing 4-2 at New York. The Tigers had the day off. After a disappointing road trip, the day off came at a good time. The Tigers are back home now though and they've been an entirely different team here. Indeed, they're a poor 16-25 on the road but an outstanding 25-11 at home.

Fister has been excellent at home for the Mariners but mediocre on the road. Overall, he's got better stats than Detroit's starter, Max Scherzer. However, Scherzer has been the much better pitcher lately. Over his last three starts, he's gone 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.178 WHIP. On the other hand, Fister is 0-1 with a 5.30 ERA his last three starts.

The Tigers score 4.9 runs per game at home, hitting .280. The Mariners score 3.4 runs per game on the road, hitting .235.

The Tigers also have the edge in the bullpen department. Their relievers have a combined 2.99 ERA and 1.195 WHIP at home. Conversely, Mariners' relievers have an ERA above five on the road.

With the Mariners at 13-27 on the road, the price on the Tigers is more than fair. *10

I'm playing on Tampa Bay and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. The Twins saw yesterday's finale vs. the Tigers stay below the number. That brought the UNDER to 6-2 their last eight games. The Rays saw their final two games at Fenway both finish above the total. They've still seen the UNDER go 5-3-1 their last nine though. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here.

Niemann saw his last start finish with a score of 1-0. He allowed just one run through 7 1/3 innings and had 8 K's with just two walks. Prior to that, in his most recent road start, he allowed two runs through six complete innings, striking out seven while walking one. For the season, he's 6-2 with a stellar 2.72 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. He's averaging 6 2/3 innings and the UNDER is 7-5-3 in his 15 starts.

The Rays couldn't even provide Niemann a hit last time out. Given the way Pavano has thrown in his last couple of starts, Niemann isn't likely to receive a ton of run support here either.

In his last start, Pavano went to New York and tossed a complete game, 3-hit shutout. The Twins won 6-0. He had 4 K's and only walked one batter. His previous start was every bit as impressive. Once again, Pavano went the distance, this time holding the powerful Phillies to one run on four hits. He didn't walk a batter. That game finished with a score of 4-1.

For the season, Pavano is now 9-6 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.025 WHIP. He's averaging seven innings per start and has 59 K's to only 15 walks. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 10-5 in his 15 starts. Note that he's gone at least seven innings in nine of his last 10 starts.

Both starters are supported by very capable bullpens. The Tampa Bay relievers have been outstanding on the road. The Twins' relievers have been every good here at Minnesota.

Both starters have also fared well vs. today's opponent. Niemann is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA vs. the Twins. In his only start against them, he allowed just three hits and one run. That game managed to stay below the total, a 7-1 Rays' victory.

Pavano's last start vs. Tampa Bay saw him allow just one run and four hits through seven complete innings. That one finished with a score of 5-1. For his career, he's 5-3 with a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.229 WHIP vs. the Rays.

The Rays have seen the UNDER go 32-16-1 in July the past couple of seasons and I look for them to start the new month off with another 'under' here. *10

I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. Many of you know that I like Felix Hernandez. He's been good to me over the years (when playing on OR against) and I won with the Mariners in each of his last two starts. However, with all due respect to "King Felix," I expect this to be a difficult matchup.

The Mariners won yesterday's opener. The Yankees were playing their first game off a West-Coast road trip though. They were facing a tough left-hander in Cliff Lee (every bit as good as Hernandez) and their own starter (Hughes) had a poor 5.30 ERA in his previous three starts.

Also, note that the Yankees haven't been that great vs. southpaw starters. They've been terrific against right-handed starters though, going 32-16 (+8.4).

Now, the Yanks have had time to "adjust" to being back in New York. They've also got a starter in better current form than they did yesterday. Vazquez checks in having recorded a 3.79 ERA and 1.053 WHIP his last three starts. He admittedly wasn't great last time out, giving up four runs at Arizona. However, prior to that, he'd gone 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his first four starts in June. Also, note that Vazquez is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three home starts.

Vazquez is 2-0 his last two starts vs. the M's, going 4-2 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for his career. On the other hand, Hernandez is 2-3 with a 4.59 ERA and a poor 1.62 WHIP for his career vs. the Yankees. His last road start vs. the Yankees saw him allow 12 hits, three walks and six runs, in 5 2/3 innings, en route to suffering a 6-1 loss.

Vazquez will face a Seattle lineup which ranks last in the American League in terms of runs scored. Hernandez will face a potent Yankee lineup which ranks second in all of baseball for runs scored.

Even with yesterday's victory, the M's are still 2-8 the last 10 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, going a money-burning 17-36 in that role the past few seasons.

Even with yesterday's result, the M's are still 12-26 on the road. As for the Yankees, they're still 25-11 at home. All things considered, I feel the current price is very fair. *10

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. While the Dodgers won yesterday's series opener, I expect the Giants to bounce right back with a victory this evening.

Cain got really roughed up in his last outing. Even after that difficult start, he's still got a stellar 2.72 ERA on the season. Cain has been particularly stingy here at home. In seven starts here, he's gone 4-2 with an outstanding 2.17 ERA and 0.946 WHIP. He's averaged greater than seven innings per home start.

The Giants are 3-0 in Cain's last three home starts. In those games, Cain has allowed a mere two earned runs through 24 innings. That translates to a microscopic 0.75 ERA. Looking back further and we find that the Giants are an impressive 14-6 in Cain's last 20 home starts. Cain never allowed more than five earned runs in any of those games, allowing four or less in 18 of them and two or less in 14 of them.

It's true that Cain is winless (0-7) vs. the Dodgers. A closer look shows that he's allowed four earned runs or less against them in six straight starts though, allowing two or less in four of those starts. He also went a minimum of six complete innings in all six of those. In other words, he's pitched a lot better against the Dodgers recently than his record against them indicates.

Ely is coming off a strong start for the Dodgers, although he still lost. However, prior to that, he'd allowed four earned runs or more in three straight starts, recording an ugly 9.20 ERA and a horrible 2.113 WHIP, during that stretch. Even with the quality effort last time out, he's still 0-3 with a 6.48 and 1.50 WHIP his last three starts.

While Ely has given the Dodgers some quality starts, keep in mind that he was never considered a "can't miss prospect." He did have a very good year at Double-AA last year but was just 10-12 with a 4.71 ERA at Single-A the previous season. A few good starts in the big leagues certainly doesn't put him in the same class as Matt Cain, who has proven to be a very good big league pitcher for several seasons now.

The Giants have been outstanding as home favorites in this range in recent seasons. In fact, they're a highly profitable 36-13 (+18.3) the last 49 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect Cain to bounce back with a big effort and for the Giants to improve on those stats tonight. *10

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Both teams are playing well. The Phillies bounced back from Saturday's loss with a convincing 11-2 victory yesterday. They're now 5-1 their last six games. Despite dropping yesterday's finale with the Indians, the Reds are also 5-1 their last six games, as they'd previously won five in a row. They've got a starter in much better current form here and I look for them to bounce right back with a victory.

Cueto gets the call. He started June off poorly but has been terrific lately. Two starts ago, he was a hard-luck loser, taking a loss while allowing just one run through 5 2/3 innings. Last time out, he was even better, tossing seven shutout innings. Including that 3-0 victory, he's now 7-2 with a 3.97 ERA for the season. That includes a 3-1 mark here at home. In 43 innings here, he's recorded an impressive 43 K's. The Reds are a profitable 10-5 (+5.3) in his 15 starts overall.

Kendrick gets the call for the Phillies and he hasn't been nearly as sharp as Cueto lately. Last time out, he allowed five runs (4 earned) in just four innings. That gives him a 5.62 ERA his last three starts and a 4.83 ERA, as a starter, for the season.

The Reds are now 20-9 when playing a game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. That includes a profitable 13-6 mark at home. The Reds, who entered yesterday's game averaging 5.4 runs at home and hitting 0.291, have been better at home than the Phillies have been on the road. With their starter in better current form, I expect them to be better than the Phillies again this evening. *10

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. After a high-scoring opener, these teams combined for just five runs yesterday, a 5-0 Oakland victory. I expect the Pirates to have trouble scoring again and for this afternoon's final combined score to also prove lower than many will be expecting.

Gonzalez goes for the A's and he's been terrific here at home. In seven starts here, he's gone 4-2 with an outstanding 2.47 ERA and a 0.972 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .164 against him here.

Regulars know that I've also pointed out several times that Gonzalez is much better during the day than he is at night. In fact, in four daytime starts, he's gone 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting only .158 in those games.

In addition to getting to pitch at home and during the afternoon, Gonzalez will have the advantage of facing the Pirates for the first time.

Of course, it also helps that the Pirates score the fewest runs in the major leagues.

Ohlendorf comes in with an ugly 0-6 record. He has pitched well enough to win a few of those games though. Looking at his recent outings shows that he's gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts, allowing three earned runs or less in three of them.

In his last start, he gave up four runs. However, a closer look shows that he actually retired the first 10 batters in that game. Manager John Russell said this of him: "He looked like he was throwing well. And then he fell through the trap and made some mistakes..."

Like Gonzalez, Ohlendorf has been a much better pitcher during the day than he has been at night. Check this out. He's 0-6 with a 6.81 ERA at night. However, in three daytime starts, he's got a stellar 2.84 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a whopping .326 against him at night but a mere .214 during the day.

Ohlendorf has seen the UNDER go 7-2-1 in his 10 starts, including a perfect 3-0 at home.

The A's have seen the UNDER go 18-7-2 their last 27 day games, averaging just 3.7 runs in their afternoon games. Likewise, for the Pirates, who are also averaging 3.7 runs per game, when playing during the afternoon. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. *10

I'm playing on LA. I won with the Angels yesterday and am coming back with them to grab the rubber match of this 3-game set.

Yesterday, I noted how the Rockies had been coming off back to back lengthy extra inning games, combined with some travel. That was an "evening" game. Playing a day game, after a night game, figures to be favor the "fresher" team.

Playing in the afternoon should suit the Angels just fine. Indeed, they're a rather remarkable 85-36 (+50.2) in day games, the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Rockies are just 65-64 -8.2, when they've played during the day.

Chacin goes for the Rockies. He's had a good season overall and is coming off a strong start. That said, before his last outing, he'd be on a 4-start losing streak with an ERA of 5.32, during that stretch. The Rockies are 4-6 (-3.3) in his starts.

Santana goes for the Angels. He's won six of eight outings, recording a stellar 3.46 ERA, during that stretch. The Angels are a profitable 5-2 (+2.2) in Santana's home starts this season, winning five of the last six.

Looking back further and we find that Santana has allowed four earned runs or less in 11 of his last 12 home starts, also going at least six complete innings in 11 of those 12.

The Angels seem to enjoy playing at this time of the year, as they are now 49-27 (+19.4) in June, the past few seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats here, maintaining their positive momentum for tomorrow's big series opener vs. Texas. *10

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. Give the Rockies credit. Coming off an emotionally draining loss, one which took nearly five hours, they traveled to LA and opened the series with an extra inning win. Today, I expect all the innings and excitement of the past few games to catch up to them.

Saunders has admittedly been pretty bad his last two starts. However, right before that, he'd tossed a complete-game and only allowed one run. He's also a guy who's proven to be a winner, one which is confident he can win at this level. He had this to say of his last outing: "I feel like I had great stuff. I got a lot of ground balls, there just seemed to be a constant hole on that left side of the infield. Perfectly placed ground balls, the defense just wasn't there for me today, but that's going to happen."

Cook is a pitcher who is much better at home. Indeed, he's 0-4 with a 7.38 ERA and a terrible 2.001 WHIP in eight road starts this season. In fact, he hasn't won outside Denver since last July. He's averaging just 4.9 innings per road start and is walking more than he strikes out. He may go more than 4.9 here - as the Rockies need him to do so. That said, the lack of innings per road start isn't a good thing, when your team with a depleted bullpen.

The Rockies are averaging just 3.8 runs per game on the road and hitting only 0.233 outside of Colorado. Even with last night's win, they're still 16-20 on the road.

The Angels are 6-2 in Saunders' eight June home starts, since 2007. They're also a profitable 100-66 (+28.3) the past 166 times that they were coming off a loss. Behind a better effort from Saunders here, I expect them to bounce back with an important victory. *10

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. With guys like Carpenter and Wainwright in their rotation, the Cardinals often have an edge on the mound. I expect them to be at a disadvantage in the starting pitching department for this evening's series opener with the Royals though.

Admittedly, Greinke hasn't dominated the way that he's capable of dominating lately. He's still off back to back "quality starts" though and he's still got a solid 3.94 ERA and excellent 1.198 WHIP on the season. He averages greater than six innings per start and has 83 K's to just 18 walks on the season. Clearly, he's pitched a lot better than his record indicates. He figures to get some run support here.

I say that, as Suppan's numbers are pretty bad. He checks in at 0-2 with an ugly 6.81 ERA and 1.914 WHIP. He's averaged just 4.5 innings in his four starts.

Suppan last started against the Royals in 2007. He allowed nine hits and five runs in five innings. Greinke last started against St. Louis in 2008. He allowed two hits and one run through seven complete innings.

The Royals closed out their, otherwise highly disappointing, road trip with a win. That gives them some positive momentum entering this series. They also had yesterday off. On the other hand, the Cardinals played an evening game, suffering a 5-0 loss in Canada. The Cards have managed just two runs their past two games and I don't expect them to break-out vs. Greinke.

Given the fact that the Royals are at home and that Greinke is a much better pitcher than Suppan, I feel that the current price is more than reasonable. *10

I'm playing on SEATTLE. I won with both of tonight's starters in their last game. On 3/17, I successfully backed the Cubs when Wells was on the mound. The following day, on 3/18, I played on the Mariners, when Lee was pitching. Wells was very solid. He allowed two earned runs through seven complete innings. Lee was even better. Indeed, he threw a complete-game shutout. He retired 12 straight batters, at one point, before Orlando Cabrera singled with two out in the eighth. I expect Lee to get the better of Wells here.

Lee is now 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA on the season. That includes a 3-1 mark with a superb 1.71 ERA his last five starts. Lee averaged better than eight innings (8,8,9,7,8) in those five outings. Looking back further and we find that he's gone GREATER THAN six complete innings in 15 straight starts. He allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of those starts, too.

Wells, on the other hand, is 0-5 with an ugly 5.89 ERA in his last nine starts. While opposing hitters are batting .222 against Lee, they're batting .297 against Wells.

It should also be noted that Lee is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in three starts vs. the Cubs.

While the Cubs are 1-4 in Wells' last five starts, the Mariners are 5-1 in Lee's last six starts. Looking back further and we find that Lee's teams are an impressive 14-6 his last 20 starts.

While the price might seem high for a team like Seattle, note that the Mariners are a perfect 4-0 the last four times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Behind another strong effort from Lee, I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Reds just got swept at Seattle. In three games there, they managed only one run. I expect them to have some trouble putting up big offensive numbers again tonight.

Gio Gonzalez has been good to us this season. I've successfully played on his games to go 'under' the total and have successfully played on the A's in games that he starts. Last week, I successfully played against the A's, when Gonzalez was on the mound.

One of the reasons that I've been successful in Gonzalez's starts is that I noticed, early on, that he was pitching much better at home than he was on the road. That's continued to be the case. In eight road starts, he's gone 2-3 with a poor 5.44 ERA. However, in six home starts, he's gone 4-2 with a stellar 2.90 ERA and 1.017 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .165 in those games. Gonzalez is averaging 6 2/3 innings per start here and has allowed only one home run here all season.

Leake has pitched well for the Reds this season. That said, the magic seems to be starting to wear off, as he's coming off back to back tough starts. Last time out, he allowed nine hits, three walks and five runs, in six innings. Two starts ago, he allowed 11 hits, four walks and five runs in just 4 1/3 innings.

Gonzalez has gone a minimum of seven complete innings in five straight home starts, allowing three earned runs or less in all five of them. The A's were 4-1 in those games, including 3-0 the last three.

While the Reds' relievers have had some trouble on the road, the A's relievers have a combined 2.83 ERA and 1.092 WHIP at home.

The road trip wasn't kind to the A's. They're back home now though, where they've gone a solid 21-13 (+7.8) on the season and where they've won 12 of their last 19. The A's are also 5-1 the last six times that they hosted the Reds and I look for them to start this series off with a much needed victory. *10

I'm playing on the CHICAGO CUBS. The Cubs got embarrassed by a score of 12-0 yesterday. Off that humiliating defeat, looking to avoid getting swept and trying to close out their homestand with one last win, before heading out on the road, I expect a highly determined team effort from the Cubs this afternoon.

Neither starter has very impressive numbers this season. However, both have proven in the past that they are better than their current numbers indicate. While Saunders is admittedly tough on the road, he got rocked in his last start. In that outing, he gave up six runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Zambrano, on the other hand, has been working his way back, after spending time in the bullpen. He allowed five runs through six innings in his last start. However, he was the victim of some bad defense, as only two of those runs were earned. He has a terrible 6.91 ERA on the road but his home ERA of 3.79 is respectable. I feel he's capable of coming through with a quality start when his team needs him most.

The Cubs haven't been swept here since last August and they haven't been swept here by an American League team since way back in 2006. While most will be pretty down on them, I expect them to bounce back in a big way here, improving to 8-2 their last 10 against southpaw starters. *10