I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Jays took yesterday's game but I expect the A's to have the advantage this afternoon. In his last start at Oakland, Shoemaker lost by a score of 21-3. He lasted less than three innings, giving up five earned runs. Fiers didn't get a decision in either of his last two starts against the Jays but his team won both. Last time he faced them, he tossed eight innings, allowing just a single earned run, on only three hits. He's gone six or more innings in five of his six starts vs. Toronto. Shoemaker, on other hand, has failed to go six innings in any of his last five vs. the A's. The A's are a dominant 76-51 (+27.6) in day games the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they've also thrived at home and as home favorites in this range. Expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. All things considered, this line could easily be higher. While both teams come in looking for a win, the schedule, venue and matchup favor the Padres. While San Diego had yesterday off, the Reds were busy playing at LA. The Reds have been terrible on the road this season, again. Roark's 4.30 ERA doesn't seem that terrible. However, a 1.70 WHIP shows that he's been giving up a lot of baserunners. Paddack, on the other hand, has a dominant 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, striking out more than a batter per inning. The rookie has a great fastball/change-up combination and hitters being unfamiliar with him has been working in his favor. The Padres are a perfect 3-0 the past 2+ seasons, when off b2b division losses, in which they were favored, while playing at home. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Jays have taken the first two games of this series but I fully expect the Twins to bounce back today. While Odorizzi's (0-2) record doesn't seem too impressive, lets not forget that he took a no-hitter into the 5th inning of his last start. A 1.15 WHIP through three starts shows that he's not allowing too many baserunners. Thornton, on the other hand, allowed 10 batters to reach base in his last start, giving up eight hits and walking two. That was over just three innings, too. Over his last nine starts against Toronto, Odorizzi allowed four runs once and three runs another time. All seven other starts saw him allow two runs or less. His last two home starts vs. the Jays saw him win by scores of 6-1 and 7-2, allowing just three combined runs in 13 innings. In fact, he's allowed just five combined earned runs in his last four home starts vs. Toronto. Minnesota rolls. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While the Cubs had their Sunday game postponed, the Marlins lost a tough one in 14 innings to the Phillies. In addition to burning up the bullpen - the Marlins used seven relievers - those type of losses can be demoralizing/deflating. Thats tough when a team is already giving up a lot in the talent department. Its true that Richards has pitched well thus far. However, like Darvish, he's still 0-3. Darvish took a big step last time out, as he didn't walk any batters, something that had been an issue in his first two starts.  The Cubs are 42-22 (+10) as road favorites in the -125 to 175 range, the past couple of seasons. The last time these teams met (May of last year) the Cubs won all three games, outscoring the Marlins by a combined 31-9 margin. The Cubs know they need to improve on the road and this is a perfect venue to do so at. Expect them to get healthy at Miami's expense this evening. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. While Greinke has gotten off to a slow start, a date with San Diego figures to be just what he needs. Note that Arizona is a perfect 3-0 his last three starts vs. the Padres. All three of those were quality starts for the former Cy Young winner; he struck out 23 while walking just one. The most recent of those came less than two weeks ago, also a head-to-head matchup vs. Lauer. While Greinke had 10K's without walking a batter, Lauer labored. He'd give up four runs, on nine hits, over five innings, striking out just two. The Padres are an ugly 5-18 (-12.5) the past 2+ seasons, when off three or more consecutive wins. During the same stretch, the Dbax were 16-8 when attempting to avenge two or more straight home losses. Arizona bounces back. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. While the Rockies have struggled, this afternoon's matchup is an excellent spot to stop the bleeding. Note that the Rockies are a lucrative 23-12 (+15.5) over the years, when off eight or more consecutive losses. Marquez's last three starts against the Giants have all been quality. Meanwhile, Holland is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in four starts vs. the Rockies. These same two starters opposed each other in July of 2017. Marquez was 2-for-2 at the plate and the Rockies won 12-4. The Giants are 11-14 the past 2+ seasons, off three or more consecutive wins. That includes a 2-5 mark when off three or more consec. divisional wins. While the Rockies are 62-56 (+3.9) in day games during that span, the Giants are 52-68 (-14.6) in day games. Put away those brooms, SF fans. No sweep here.

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. I won with the Reds in all three of their wins against the Marlins. However, I'm going against them here. The Reds held Miami to a single run through the 3-game series. They're likely going to give up plenty here though and they may not score too many themselves. Note that Cincinatti is 14-29 (-13.6) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. Wainwright (2-0) looked like he did 10 years ago in his last start. Through six complete innings, he allowed a single run, striking out nine without walking a single batter. Roark, on the other hand, has a 5.79 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. Cards win.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Mariners are red hot but I look for the Astros to cool them off Friday evening. While Seattle does have homefield advantage, the Astros have the schedule working in their favor. They had yesterday off while Seattle played an extra-inning game, at KC. Miley, a former Mariner, is off a 6-0 win last time out and has a stellar 2.31 ERA so far this season. On the other hand, LeBlanc has a 4.76 ERA. He's been lucky to get a lot of run support thus far but that's unlikely to be the case this time. Note that LeBlanc had a poor 6.75 ERA in six appearances (4 starts) against the Astros last season. The last time that he faced the Astros here at Seattle, he gave up seven runs on 10 hits (3 HRS) in just 4 2/3 innings. While some don't like to play favorites on the road, keep in mind that the Astros are a dominant 100-44 (+34.4) in the road favorite role, the past 2+ seasons. During the same stretch, the M's were 22-30 as home underdogs. Astros roll. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Yesterday's blizzard came at the perfect time for the Rockies, who have dropped five straight. It allowed them a much-needed day off, while avoiding an unfavorable matchup. Instead, they escape to California for a far more favorable matchup. Gray may be 0-2 but he's still got a respectable 1.26 WHIP and he's still striking out more than a batter an inning, something he's done for his career. Samardzija, 69-92 for his career, has a 1.45 WHIP, averaging less than five innings per start. The Rockies are 6-1 the last seven times that they faced Samardzija. Overall, they're 8-2 their last 10 against the Giants, too. They're desperate to snap the losing streak and I expect them to do exactly that. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Reds yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again today. Off to a terrible start, a visit from the Marlins was just what the doctor ordered for Cincinnati. Note that Miami is now 60-105 (-19.7) on the road the past 2+ seasons. Mahle has yet to allow an earned run this season, checking in with a 0.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. Yesterday's 14-0 victory was the type of win that a team can build momentum from. The Reds are 8-2 the past 10 times that they were off a win by eight or more runs and they were 2-0 the past couple of seasons, off a win by 12 or more runs. Expect them to remain perfect in that situation. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Braves took yesterday's opener but I expect the Rockies to bounce back and even the series today. Through two starts, Marquez has a dominant 0.69 ERA, striking out 14 in 13 innings. Admittedly, Fried has also pitched well. However, he's only pitched 7.1 innings through three appearances, one start. The Rockies are 12-6 (+7.1) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing eight or more runs in consecutive games. During that span, they're also 26-16 (+10.2) after having lost four of their previous five. They're also 75-47 at home, when the line is -110 or higher. Marquez's last start vs. Atlanta saw him go seven strong innings, en route to a 4-2 win. Expect the Rockies to stop the bleeding here. 

I'm playing on the CHICAGO CUBS. The Cubs are off to a tough start and they lost again (4-2) yesterday. However, I fully expect them to right the ship this afternoon. Chicago is 45-24 (+12.3) the past 2+ seasons, off a loss by two runs, or less. During the same span, the Cubs are also 22-10 (+10.4) after having lost five or six of their previous seven and 10-4 (+7.6) after having lost six, or seven, of their previous eight. Lester has been solid thus far (3.00 ERA) and he tends to thrive against the Pirates. In his last two starts against them, he won 3-0 and 1-0. Going back further finds that the Cubs have won six of his last seven against Pittsburgh. Taillon is already 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA on the road. With the Pirates just 48-78 (-12.4) the past few seasons, as road underdogs of +100 or higher, I'm going with Lester and the Cubs. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) With the Indians favored by quite a bit on the money-line, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Jays for a relatively reasonable price. Thats where I feel the value lies in this one. Stroman may be 0-2 but he's pitched very well. Through two starts, he's got a 1.42 ERA. (The Jays lost 2-0 and 2-1.) Stroman has made three starts vs. Cleveland since 2017. The Jays won two of them and the other was a 1-run loss. In fact, only one of his six starts vs. the Indians has resulted in a loss by greater than a run, a 4-2 game in 2016. On the other hand, the Clevinger's teams are 0-2 against Toronto, including an 8-4 loss against Stroman. In a game where runs figure to be at a premium and with the Jays hungry to avoid getting swept, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs). Given the current form of the starters, getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Rockies at this price, is a steal. While he got stuck with a loss for his efforts, Gray did some impressive things in his opening start. He mixed in all of his pitches and recorded 10 K's through 6 2/3 innings. That's more than can be said for Buehler. He ended up allowing five earned runs through just three complete innings, failing to strike out a single batter. That translates to a 15.00 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. Not entirely his fault, perhaps, as he worked very limited innings (2.2) in the spring. Either way, he didn't nearly as good as Gray. While I expect the Rockies to win outright, I'll happily grab the extra +1.5 insurance runs. 

10* VIOLATOR: I'm playing on LA. While I lost with the Angels yesterday, I'm coming right back with them today. Lynn, who allowed seven runs in his first start, hasn't had much success here. In two starts at LA, Lynn has allowed nine earned runs, on 17 hits, in just 10 2/3 combined innings. Pena, on the other hand, has seen his team won both his starts against Texas. He limited the Rangers to just three runs through 13 combined innings. While Pena's first start didn't go as planned, he was absolutely dominant in his final spring start, striking out nine Dodgers. At the time, Angels manager Brad Ausmus noted: "He's pitched pretty well all spring, quite frankly. He’s been very solid." Expect him to get the better of Lynn today, the Angels bouncing back with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on LA. While the Angels have gotten off to a tough start, this is a great opportunity to right the ship. LA had yesterday off while Texas beat Houston. Note that the Rangers are an ugly 7-23 (-16.5) the past 30 times that they were off b2b upset victories over a division rival. That includes an 0-3 mark in that situation the past couple of seasons. Harvey was solid in his first start. He allowed two runs, on four hits, through six complete innings. In fact, he's responsible for the Angels' lone win this season. On the other hand, Volquez gave up four runs in just four innings, allowing six hits while walking four. That traslates to a 9.00 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. Speaking of getting rocked, the last time that Volquez faced the Angels, he allowed eight runs on 12 hits, lasting just five innings. LA won 9-4. The Angels are 7-3 (+4.6) the past 10 times that they were off three straight divisional losses. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Tough start for the Red Sox but I fully expect them to bounce back this evening. The Sox are 10-4 (+5) the past couple of seasons, after having dropped four of their previous five. During that span, they're also 39-18 (+19.6) when playing with 'double revenge,' - against an opponent which had defeated them in b2b games. That includes an 11-3 (+7.6) mark when playing with double-revenge from two games where they scored two runs or less. While we have to go back some time, the A's are 0-3 the past three times that they'd allowed one run or less in three straight games, 3-8 after allowing three runs or less in four straight. Eovaldi tossed six shutout innings, without allowing a single hit, the last time he pitched here. (He won 6-0.) Estrada, meanwhile, is 0-4 his last four starts against Boston. Going back further finds that the Sox are a perfect 9-0 the last nine times that they faced him. It all adds up to a much-needed win for the visitors. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rangers have gotten off to a better start than the Astros but Houston will have the advantage in this one. Peacock was 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in the spring, striking out 14 against just two walks. Smyly, on the other hand, had a poor 4.85 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in the spring, opposing hitters batting .315 against him. Smyly's teams are 0-3 when he starts against Houston. Peacock's last two starts at Texas saw him win 7-2 and 8-3. In those two games, he recorded 14 K's while walking just one. Despite their poor start, the Astros remain a highly profitable 99-42 (+37.5) the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites of -110 or greater, 77-28 when listed as road favorites of -175 or greater. Expect them to bounce back big today, improving to 37-15 their past 52, after scoring one run or less in their previous game. 

I'm playing on SD. I successfully backed the Padres in Friday's game. After the Giants took yesterday's contest, I'm coming right back with the Padres in this afternoon's finale. Paddack is coming off an outstanding spring. In five starts, he was 3-1 with a dominant 1.76 ERA. He recorded 24Ks against just three walks and didn't give up any home runs. By comparison, Samardzija allowed five home runs during the spring, while going 1-1. Note that no other pitcher in spring training had a better ERA and more K's than Paddack. (He was #13 in terms of K's but none of the 12 ahead of him had as low an ERA.) While the Giants have really struggled as road underdogs in recent seasons, the Padres have quietly thrived as home favorites. While the Giants will face Paddack for the first time, the Padres are very familiar with Samardzija. Expect them to finish on top here. 

I'm playing on Chicago/KC OVER the total. Neither of today's starters was particularly sharp in the spring. Junis had a 5.12 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .325 against him. Lopez, meanwhile, has a 5.74 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in four spring starts. Six of Lopez's seven starts against the Royals have produced a minimum of nine combined runs. Five of those seven reached double-digits. Three of Junis' four starts against Chicago have produced a minimum of nine combined runs. Expect the bats to come alive, sending the final combined score above the number, the OVER improving to 41-32 the past 2+ seasons, when the Sox were off a loss by two runs, or less. 

I'm playing on BOSTON (10* PERS FAV). The M's grabbed yesterday's opener but I expect the Sox to return the favor this evening. Eovaldi, often injured, is healthy and ready to go. He showed everyone that he was a warrior in the playoffs and he's ready to go to start the season. Manager Alex Cora had this to say of him: "What did he show us last year — that stuff-wise, he's up there with the best of the league. The guy’s not afraid. He doesn't put too much pressure on himself. He enjoys the game. He's a workaholic in the weight room. He's a great teammate. I'm glad he's back with us..." Kikuchi has had an emotional week and it may well catch up with him here. Facing the Red Sox in America figures to be considerably tougher than facing the A's in Japan. Eovaldi has made one start at Seattle. While that came back in 2012, he tossed six shutout innings. Expect him to get the better of Kikuchi, en route to a Red Sox win.

I'm playing on TORONTO (10* GAME OF MONTH). Stroman enters the season in excellent form and I look for him to get off to a strong start. The Toronto right-hander had a dominant 2.19 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in spring training. Opposing batters hit just .136 against him and he had 13 K's against only one walk. Zimmerman, on the other hand, had a 5.19 ERA in the spring. Stroman, who says that his shoulder feels great, had this to say: "I haven't felt like this since 2017. Last year was a battle, so just to be able to go out there knowing that I have my entire arsenal and repertoire in the tank, it's going to be a fun year." When asked about getting another Opening Day start, he had this to say: "I think it just feeds into my personality, and who I am as a person. The greater the stage, the bigger the lights, the more I feel I'm really able to lock it in. Something I feel I've always had since I was a young age." Note that Stroman was sharp in his lone start against the Tigers last season, allowing four hits and one earned run, through seven innings, while picking up the victory. While it may ultimately prove to be a long year for Toronto fans, expect them to get it off to a winning start. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Mariners took yesterday's opener. However, I like the A's to bounce back here. Estrada, a veteran, is determined to get off to a winning start with his new team. He'll be happy to be facing the Mariners. Estrada's last three starts against Seattle, all of which came when he was with Toronto, saw his team win by scores of 5-1, 7-2 and 3-2. The last time he faced the M's, he allowed a single hit through seven dominant innings. In last season's lone March start, Estrada went seven innings against the Yankees, allowing just four hits. Toronto won 5-3. Expect him to help lead the A's to an important victory here. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). While Price may have "exorcised his demons," he's also pitching on 1-day's rest, having thrown in Friday's marathon 18-inning game. Kershaw, now at home, knows his legacy is on the line. Fewer and fewer people are calling him "The Goat" these days. He knows that by delivering a big game in the World Series, with his team needing it more than ever, would silence some of the critics, exorcising some of his own demons. In 15 home starts, Kershaw has a 2.28 ERA and 0.932 WHIP. This is still "his house" and I'm not counting out the Dodgers with him on the mound. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR). I'm not counting the Dodgers out yet. In 13 home starts, Buehler had a sparkling 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP, averaging better than six innings per outing. I like that he's had 15 K's vs. a single walk over his last two starts. While he's had a solid season, Porcello got taken deep twice in just four innings in his last start. While he hasn't pitched here in some time, he's got an ugly 1.968 WHIP in two starts here at LA. The last time the Dodgers lost two in a row, exactly one month ago, they responded with a 3-1 win, start of a 6-game winning streak. Backs against the wall, the Dodgers respond once again!

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Astros bats struggled yesterday, I expect them to come to life against Porcello this evening. A look at the first five batters (Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel, Gonzalez) from yesterday's Astros lineup shows that those five are hitting .417, .333, .333, .333 and .500 against Porcello. Also, Correa, who batted seventh yesterday, is hitting .375 against Porcello. Though he pitched well against the Yankees, Porcello had a 4.54 ERA after the All Star Break and is still 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA for his postseason career. At 15-3, Morton has had a terrific season. One of the losses came in a h2h matchup against Porcello back in June. Payback time when it counts this evening. 

I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF WEEK). With the Dodgers evening things up in Game 2, the series now shifts to LA. That suits Buehler and the Dodgers just fine. Buehler, who lost at Atlanta in the opening round, had a solid 3.45 ERA on the road this season. However, here at home, he was dominant, recording a 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Opposing batters hit just .174 against him here. Though he got no run support (1-0 loss) Buehler was outstanding in his lone start against the Brewers. Through seven complete innings, he allowed just one run, on only five hits, striking out seven without walking a batter. On the other hand, Chacin's last start (8/2) against the Dodgers saw him allow nine runs, eight of them earned, through just 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers won that one by a score of 21-5.

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR). After battling so hard to get here, the Rockies find themselves in a hole. Back home and with Marquez on the mound, I expect them to respond with their best effort. While many pitchers struggle here, recently, Marquez has cracked the code. In fact, he's got a 1.90 ERA his last seven starts here, all of them quality. Overall, he finished the regular season with 14 wins, a 3.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Very solid numbers for a pitcher with Coors for a home park. Marquez can dominate hitters. In September, he had 48 K's vs. just five walks. He began October by striking out nine Dodgers in 4 2/3 innings. He last faced the Brewers on Aug. 3rd. Through seven complete innings, he allowed just two runs, on only three hits. He had nine K's against two walks. Miley has been solid but isn't capable of dominating the way Marquez can. Miley's last start here was back in 2014. He allowed six runs on eight hits and four walks, losing 8-3. Expect Marquez and co. to finish on top. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Kluber has enjoyed another strong season and is obviously an elite pitcher. That said, his 3.80 ERA on the road was considerably higher than his 2.14 mark at home. Also, he was "nothing special" last time out, the Indians losing 9-4 at KC. Kluber didn't factor in the decision but allowed three runs, on seven hits, through five innings. While three runs in five innings may not be terrible, its 3x as many runs as Verlander has allowed in his last three starts combined. He's got a 0.47 ERA and 0.474 WHIP over those three starts, allowing a single run in 19 innings. Over his last four starts, he's allowed just three runs, a span of 26 complete innings. The Astros are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that he's taken the mound. Behind another big game from Verlander, expect the Astros to draw first blood, moving to 19-6 the past 25 times that they were off a shutout loss. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* MLB GAME OF MONTH). The Cubs have a big scheduling advantage. They were finishing up here at Wrigley yesterday afternoon while the Rockies were still just getting started against the Dodgers, all the way out in LA. The veteran Lester, who was 18-6 on the season, will be making his 22nd postseason start and 26th playoff appearance overall. He's got a stellar 2.55 career postseason ERA and he was 4-1 with a superb 1.52 ERA this September. While I respect Freeland, I prefer Lester's postseason experience. Hey Chicago, what do you say? The Cubs are gonna win today! 

I'm playing on LA/Colorado UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Expect runs to be at a premium this afternoon. Marquez 2-0 with a stellar 2.57 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Both starts were here at LA, as he's been very comfortable here. Both games stayed below the total with scores of 2-1 and 3-1. The first of those came in a h2h matchup against Buehler. Speaking of Buehler, despite three of the games coming at Coors, he has a 2.61 ERA in five starts against Colorado this season, the UNDER going 3-1-1. The two games here at LA averaged five combined runs. Overall, Buehler had a 1.95 ERA in five September starts. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on TAMPA (10* PERS FAV). The Rays got hammered by the Yankees yesterday. Today's series opener vs. the Jays provides the perfect opportunity to bounce right back. These same starters just opposed each other at Toronto in their last start. While Pannone and the Jays finished on top, both delivered "quality" starts. Glasnow has now delivered "quality" starts four of the past five times that he took the mound, posting a stellar 2.37 ERA (0.947 WHIP) his last three. Pannone, meanwhile, still has an ugly 7.84 ERA when starting on the road. Even factoring in yesterday vs Sabathia (and last week at Toronto) the Rays are still a healthy 26-19 (+10.1) against southpaws. Now on his own mound, expect Glasnow to get the better of Pannone, the Rays (49-29 at TB) responding with Win #50 in front of the home fans. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). While Archer was still with the Rays, these same two starters opposed each other, at Tropicana, almost exactly one year ago. Joe Maddon was making his return to Tampa. Montgomery came through for Maddon in a big way that day, allowing just one hit through six innings. After the Cubs won 2-1, Maddon said that was "the best I've seen him" of Montogmery. Today, Montgomery faces Archer, who is now in a Pirate uniform, another team which typically brings out his best. In three starts against Pittsburgh, Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He won those three games by a combined score of 16-2, compiling a 10:1 K/W ratio along the way. Speaking of K's, last time out, Montgomery struck out eight Arizona hitters, while walking just one. He'd allow just four overall hits and a single run, through six innings, the Cubs winning 9-1. That was on the road but Montgomery also has a 2.70 ERA in six home starts. Archer, meanwhile, is 5-8 with a 4.55 ERA overall, that mark climbing to 4.61 when he pitches on the road. Throw in the fact that Chicago has better hitting stats and better bullpen stats and this line could easily be higher. Cubs bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). I've had a good read on Pena and expect him to lead his team to a victory tonight. Some of you will recall that I successfully played on the Angels when Pena beat the Rangers two starts ago. Pena tossed six shutout innings and the Angels won 8-1. I came right back and (successfully) went against Pena in his last start, a 10-0 loss at Oakland. The Angels are back home now though, taking a major step down in class after having to contend with the Astros. Note that the Angels average 4.4 runs per game at home compared to the Rangers' 3.9 runs per game on the road. Sampson will be making just his fourth start and only his third since 2016. Unfortunate for him that two of those will have come against these same Angels, who beat him on 9/11, in the span of less than two weeks. The Angels remain a healthy 54-33 (+7.3) the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They've taken 10 of 16 against the Rangers on the season, four of six here at LA. Expect them to begin the week with a much needed victory. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). Yesterday, it was a southpaw starter for the Angels vs. a right-handed starter for the A's. The Angels finished on top. Roles are reversed here, however, as the A's send the lefty to the mound to oppose a right-hander for the Angels. That's significant given the fact that Oakland is a superb 60-36 (+28.2) vs. right-handers. That looks even better when compared to LA's 20-28 (-12.1) mark vs. southpaws. These same two starters opposed each other at LA on 8/10. Neither factored in the decision. However, Anderson was better, allowing two runs compared to Pena's three, one HR compared to Pena's two. Now, Anderson gets to pitch at home where he's been far stronger. In fact, he's got a stellar 0.932 WHIP (2.55 ERA) here through four starts. A's bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA/Oakland OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Skaggs, back from the DL, can't be too happy to see the A's. His last start (against any team) was against Oakland roughly five weeks ago. He last just 3 1/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. The A's took him deep three times. Of course, that was actually an improvement on his previous start, his most recent on the road. In that one, pitching at Tampa, he gave up TEN earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Thats 17 combined earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Overall, he's 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA in eight career starts vs. the A's. Hendricks is just an "opener" and won't be around long. Four of his five starts, including each of his last three, have finished above the total. Expect some offensive fireworks, the final combined score finishing above the total. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Dodgers yesterday, stating that I expect Wainwright to rise to the occasion for the Cards. He did exactly that. In fact, the Cards' veteran did exactly as I had mentioned that he had also done in his previous start against LA, delivering six shutout innings. The Dodgers are back home tonight, however, and I expect them to immediately restore order. While the Rockies haven't seen Ryu this season, the Dodgers have already seen Gray twice in the past five weeks. They got a home run off him in each game, banging out 12 hits and walking six times, in just 9 2/3 combined innings. While Gray has a 4.81 ERA (12 HRs) on the road, Ryu has a superb 2.16 ERA (3 HRs) at home, striking out 47 against only six walks. I'm going with LA. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (10* MAIN EVENT, +1.5 runs) The Cards got pounded yesterday. Desperate to right the ship, I expect a much better effort Sunday night. Wainwright is back from the DL and now has a start under his belt. Though he admittedly wasn't great in his return, I liked the fact that Wainwright retired the final eight batters he faced and also that he didn't walk a batter. While we can't expect a complete game from him, lets keep in mind that this guy (147-84, 3.31 ERA) knows how to win and knows the importance of getting his team back on track. His last start against the Dodgers saw him toss six shutout innings in a 2-0 win. His previous two against LA were both decided by a single run. He's got a 2.69 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts) for his career. While he was 8-1 with a 2.08 ERA prior to the All Star Break, Stripling is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (4 starts) since. At this low price, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with the desperate home team. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). Major scheduling advantage for the Phillies as they had yesterday off while the Marlins played a double-header at New York, losing a pair of tough ones. Admittedly, Eflin hasn't been as good in the second half. However, he's still 6-3 with a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts here at home. Those numbers are pretty good, when compared to what Chen has done on the road. Indeed, its no secret that Chen has been far worse, when pitching away from home. In 11 road starts, he's 1-7 with a 9.13 ERA. Opposing batters have hit .190 against him at Miami but .333 on the road. Chen has faced the Phillies six times and he's 0-3 in the three games here at Philadelphia. In the last two of those starts here, Chen allowed 18 hits and eight runs in 10 1/3 innings. Overall, the Phillies won those three games by a combined score of 14-6, each victory coming by multiple runs.  With the schedule and venue in their favor, expect more of the same Friday. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cubs got back on track yesterday and I absolutely expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Hendricks is in outstanding current form, as he's got a 1.00 ERA his last three starts. In his last home start, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings. Hendricks figures to get some support with "Long Ball" Anderson on the mound for Milwaukee. Anderson has served up 29 HR's on the season, most in the NL. Hendricks got the better of Anderson in a pitcher's duel (1-0) back in the spring. This one may see a few more runs scored but expect the end result to be the same. 

I'm playing on KC (10* PERS FAV). Giolito has had success against the Royals and he got the better of Junis, back in the spring. I'm banking on Junis, who is currently in outstanding form, to return the favor this evening. Two starts ago, in his most recent start here at KC, Junis went the distance. He limited the Tigers to two runs on six hits, striking out seven without walking a batter. The Royals won 6-2. Last time out, he was even better. Pitching on the road against a dangerous Cleveland lineup, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings. Once again, he didn't walk a batter, this time recording six K's. The Royals won 5-1. His success in this series notwithstanding, Giolito has struggled overall. For the season, he's got a 5.85 ERA. Last time out, he lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Tigers, giving up five runs, four of them earned. The Sox have lost his last two starts by score of 8-3 and 9-4. Overall, the Sox have now lost five straight, getting outscored by a 36-10 margin. Royals roll. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). Overall, Clevinger is 11-7 with a solid 3.11 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the season. However, a closer look reveals that he's also 6-1 with a superb 2.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, when just looking at his daytime starts. He's got a 2.32 ERA in nine starts since the All Star Break. Pannone, on the other hand, will be making only his third start. Last time out, he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Indians roll. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Braves lost a heartbreaker against Boston yesterday afternoon and now travel across the country to take on Greinke and the Diamondbacks. That spells trouble, as Greinke has a superb 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts here. In fact, he's allowed two or fewer runs in 13 of those 14 starts. He's now 19-4 here the past two seasons. Though he's admittedly been solid of late, at 96-99 with a 4.02 ERA for his career, Sanchez isn't in the same class as Greinke. The last time he pitched here at Arizona, he allowed 11 hits and five runs. I'm going with Greinke and the rested home team. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Phillies blew a chance to gain ground on Atlanta yesterday. Off three straight losses, they desperately need to get back on track. While he's had some trouble of late, I expect Arrieta to earn some of his big contract tonight. Brought in to provide veteran leadership, the former World Series Champ and former Cy Young Award winner knows how critical things are. Note that he last faced the Marlins in July, tossing seven shutout innings while allowing just three hits. He got the "W" in a 2-0 game. Including that gem, he's 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA against the Marlins, for his career. Meanwhile, Richards is 3-7 on the year and he's got a 5.87 ERA his last three. The Phillies gave Hoskins a rare night off yesterday. In hindsight, that was probably a mistake, particularly with Franco already out. They won't make the same mistake tonight, as Hoskins and his 27 HRs and 83 RBIs will surely be back in the lineup. The very inexperienced Marlins simply don't have that type of player; the Phillies have the superior talent at nearly every position. Expect them to stop the bleeding.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). After coming up short against Nola and the Phillies in back-to-back starts, expect Scherzer to be all business here. He's 8-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.877 WHIP at home. While Flaherty has admittedly been pretty stingy himself, the Cards are just 5-7 when he starts on the road. Scherzer's last start against St. Louis saw him deliver seven scoreless innings, allowing just two hits, while striking out a dozen. Expect him to be at his best once again, en route to a victory for the home team.

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) While I actually like the Rangers to win this one outright, a close one won't surprise. Therefore, I feel that getting an extra +1.5 runs, at this reasonable a price, is the way to go. Gallardo has been solid for quite some time now. He's 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA his last seven outings. Barrios hasn't been as sharp, he had a poor 4.74 ERA in August. While the Twins are 5-8 in Barrios' road starts, Gallardo, who has had some success vs. the Twins, has seen his team go 6-1 when he starts at home. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" here.

I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF MONTH). Keller has been extremely stingy of late. Over his past three starts, he's 2-0 a stellar 2.12 ERA. He's allowed only four earned runs, striking out 14 against just three walks. With a 4-12 record and a 4.79 ERA, Cashner hasn't known that level of success. He's now 46-76 for his career. This season, he's 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road. While I won with the Orioles in their series finale against the Jays, expect them to return to their losing ways here.

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Braves yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again today. Newcomb shook off a couple of shaky starts to deliver six shutout innings in his last start. In fact, he allowed just two hits while striking out eight. For the season, he's 11-6 with a solid 3.57 ERA through 25 starts. He also averages a healthy six innings per home stat. On the other hand, Castillo has made two starts and gone a combined 3 1/3 innings. After seeing their winning streak snapped yesterday, look for the Rays to lose again. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Teheran has been dominant of late. Last time out, he allowed just one run, on only two hits, through seven very strong innings. Over his past three starts, he now has an awesome 1.80 ERA to go along with an extremely stringy 0.60 WHIP. Importantly, he's averaged 6 2/3 innings per start, too. Stanek, admittedly, does some impressive stuff. That said, even when he starts, he's never around very long. Also, in eight road starts, he's got a 5.69 ERA. While the Rays average 4.0 runs per game on the road, the Braves average 4.8 rpg at home. All things considered, this line could easily be much higher. Expect Teheran and the Braves to get the better of a Tampa team which is just 6-12 (-8.1) in Interleague play. 

I’m playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Dbax got back on track yesterday and I expect them to follow it up with another victory this evening. Corbin has been excellent (10-4, 3.17 ERA) all season and he's currently in outstanding current form. In fact, he's now gone 11 consecutive games without surrendering a long ball. (That ties a franchise record.) Over his past six starts, Corbin is a perfect 4-0 with 49 K's against just four walks. Dominant. For the season, Corbin is 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 12 road starts. By comparison, Statton has an ugly 5.65 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in nine home starts. While Stratton has averaged less than five innings per home start, Corbin averages more than six innings per road start. While I've already mentioned Corbin's outstanding current form, Stratton is 0-2 (team is 0-3) in his last three starts, posting an awful 9.60 ERA and 2.133 WHIP. The Giants lost those three starts by a combined score of 20-7. One of those was a 8/3 game against Arizona where Stratton and Corbin went head-to-head. Corbin was much better than Stratton that day and I expect him to get the better of him again tonight. 

I'm playing on SF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Not only do the Giants have better success against southpaws but they've also got the better one going. Suarez is has a solid 3.79 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 10 home starts. Perez, on the other hand, has a horrible 6.82 ERA and 1.912 WHIP on the road. Suarez struggled last time out but in his previous start he held the Dodgers to only two hits through six shutout innings. Perez, meanwhile, has been rocked in b2b starts. Last time out, he gave up six runs on nine hits. In his previous start, he allowed seven runs on 11 hits. Giants roll. 

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS (10* GAME OF WEEK). After dropping the first two games of the series, the Dodgers badly need a victory this evening. With Buehler on the mound, I expect them to get it. While both starters have indeed been excellent of late, Buehler has a 1.89 ERA (0.797 WHIP!) at home compared to Flaherty's 2.85 (1.05 WHIP) mark on the road. While the Dodgers have won five of Buehler's eight home starts, the Cards are just 4-7 when Flaherty starts on the road. With Flaherty averaging just 5 1/2 innings per road starts (compared to Buehler's six innings per home start) note that the Dodgers still have the superior bullpen starts. They also hit better against right-handers, both in terms of average and in terms of runs scored. After beating the Mariners by an 11-1 score (before that he tossed 7 shutout innings at Coors) in his last start, Buehler received the following praise from Robinson Cano: "They've got a good, young arm over there. He throws hard. You face some guys that throw 98, but you see it really good. But his fastball gets to you and everything is hard, the breaking ball, the slider or cutter. He's got a bright future ahead." Put away your brooms, Cards' fans. No sweep here!

I'm playing BALTIMORE on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs.) Bundy has made three career starts at Toronto. The O's won one of them by an 11-4 margin. The other two both resulted in a 1-run wins for the Jays. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 runs as he is here, he's 3-0 here in Canada. For this career overall, Bundy has a stellar 2.61 ERA and 0.903 WHIP in five starts vs. the Jays. Gaviglio has only made one start vs. Baltimore and that saw him serve up a pair of HRs and four runs overall. That was one of them games that Bundy started. Neither starter factored in the decision; the Jays winning by a single run. While they did manage to win by two runs yesterday, the Jays' previous 10 games had seen them go 3-7 with ALL three of the wins coming by a single run. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the visitors in this one. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* MAIN EVENT). I don't often release a "top rated play" on a favorite this size. However, this is an absolute mismatch and the price could easily be higher. Pivetta is in dominant current form, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. Over that 18 inning span, he's allowed just three runs, while compiling a 19/2 K/W ratio. Vargas, on the other hand, is 0-2 with an ugly 7.15 ERA his last three starts. However, he's been so bad all year that those recent numbers have actually improved his season stats. Indeed, he's 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA overall including a 1-4 mark with an awful 8.91 ERA (1.830 WHIP) in eight road starts. Not surprisingly, the Mets are 2-11 when he takes the mound, 1-7 on the road. While he was better last time out, he still walked 3x more batters than he struck out. Pivetta's last start against the Mets resulted in an 11-0 victory. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). After dropping the first two games of the series, expect the Braves to bounce back in a big way here. Foltynewic is off a gem last time out. Through eight complete innings, he allowed just one earned run on five hits. He's now 3-0 with a superb 1.86 ERA his past three. Through 23 starts on the season, he's got a stellar 2.86 ERA. Senzatela, who recently came off the DL, hasn't started since Aug 2nd. Through nine road outings, three starts, he's got an ugly 5.81 ERA. While he hasn't had much success against the Rockies historically, expect Foltynewic to get the better of Senzatela, the Braves bouncing back with an important win.

I'm playing on KC/Chicago to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Over his past two starts, Junis has allowed only two combined runs, on eight hits, while striking out 16 batters. For the season, six of his nine road starts have fallen below the total. While he took an "L" for his efforts, Shields was sharp again last time out, holding the Indians to two earned runs through seven complete innings. The veteran has gone a minimum of six innings in 18 of his last 21 starts. For the season, the UNDER is 11-4 when he starts here at home. That includes a 4-2 loss the last time he faced the Royals. Expect another relatively well-pitched affair here, the final combined score staying beneath the number. 

I'm playing on SD (10* PERS FAV). While the Angels took yesterday's game, they're not nearly the same team without Trout in the lineup. Even at the best of times, they're also not very good against southpaws. Factoring in a victory in the series opener, they're still a poor 14-21 (-11.3) against left-handers on the season. Note that Pena is 0-2 with a 9.53 ERA his last three starts. Erlin goes for the home team. While he's obviously not going to win any Cy Young awards, I like the fact that he's got 9 K's against only two walks his last three starts (Pena has a 6/5 K/W ratio his last three.) and that he's kept the ball in the park each of his last two starts. (Pena has served up 3 long balls his last two starts.) He's also allowed just three combined runs his last two starts. the Padres won those games by scores of 8-4 and 6-1, beating the Brewers and Cubs. Expect the Padres to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

I'm playing on DETROIT (10* MAIN EVENT). Hardy is 2-0 with a superb 1.46 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two starts vs. Chicago this season. Through 12 1/3 innings, he allowed just two combined runs, striking out nine against only one walk. On the other hand, Giolito has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 innings in two starts against Detroit this season. Not surprisingly, his team lost both. Overall, Hardy has a respectable 3.96 ERA this season compared to an ugly 6.23 ERA for Giolito. Over their past three starts, Giolito has a 7.16 ERA compared to a 3.18 mark for Hardy. Note that Hardy is also backed by the superior bullpen. Throw in the fact that the Sox are a dismal 8-20 (-9.7) vs. southpaws, averaging just 3.5 runs per game and it adds up to a victory for the Tigers. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Both starters struggled last time out. However, Manaea was off a solid effort two starts ago. On the other hand, Gonzales has now been roughed up in back-to-back outings. He now has a poor 5.55 ERA since the All-Star Break. On the season, Gonzales has a 4.42 ERA through a dozen road starts, opposing batters hitting .278. Meanwhile, Manaea has a 3.50 ERA (0.92 WHIP) through a dozen home starts, opposing hitters batting a mere .200. Throw in the fact that the A's have fared better against southpaws and I expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). The Braves opened as larger favorites than they are currently. However, the price has come down and I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Newcomb has been solid all season and he's in outstandng current form. In fact, he's 2-0 (Braves are 3-0) in his last three starts, allowing only three combined runs in 20 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.31 ERA and he's got a 0.822 WHIP to go along with that. On the other hand, Anderson has served up four HR's in his last two starts alone. In fact, he's allowed more HR's (23) than any other pitcher in the NL. Throw in the fact that the Braves have thrived in day games while the Brewers have struggled and this line could easily be higher. Braves bounce back and close series with a "W."

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Though he's had some trouble of late, Gonzalez still has a respectable 3.75 ERA through 10 home starts. He's also been considerably better when pitching during the day than he is at night. In 13 evening starts, he's 3-6 with a poor 4.43 ERA. However, in daytime starts, he's 3-2 with a solid 3.53 ERA. While the Braves haven't seen Gonzalez since June, the Nats had a more recent look at Sanchez, having just seen him on 7/20. While he got the better of the Nats that day, look for them to return the favor Thursday afternoon.

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies got embarrassed yesterday. Expect them to bounce back this afternoon. Marquez is off b2b gems. He's gone seven or more innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just two runs in each. He only allowed eight combined hits in the two games while striking out 17 against just three walks. Archer, on the other hand, has allowed nine runs (7 earned) over just 10 1/3 innings, his last two starts. Over that span, he allowed 20 baserunners, 14 hits and six walks. Marquez is 3-0 with a dominant 2.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in three starts vs. the Pirates. Expect him to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on NY (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a very favorable pitching matchup for the Mets. Syndergaard went seven innings in his return, while delivering a quality start. He's 3-0 (team is 4-0) with a superb 1.98 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in four career starts vs. the Reds. On the other hand, Bailey is 1-5 with an ugly 7.21 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in seven starts vs. the Mets. On the current season, Syndergaard is 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA while Bailey is 1-8 with a 5.87 ERA. The Reds are 1-13 (-11.4) when he takes the mound! To be fair, he's deserved a better fate last time out. That said, the matchup still clearly favors the home team. The Mets are 11-5 against the Reds the past few seasons, 6-1 here at NY. Expect them to continue that series dominance for at least another day. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Mariners badly need a victory here and I expect them to get one. Leake has a very solid 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP his last three starts. On the other hand, Gaviglio has a terrible 7.04 ERA and 1.86 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 1-4 with an ugly 8.78 ERA in seven road starts. Leake beat the Jays back in May and was great in the process. In fact, he's got a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against them. M's bounce back big. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). After dropping yesterday's opener, expect the Dodgers to bounce back and level the series this evening. Maeda has a respectable 3.22 ERA in 10 home starts. On the other hand, McCullers has a 4.67 ERA on the road. McCullers is also 0-3 with a terrible 9.22 ERA his past three starts. Look for Maeda to get the better of McCullers, en route to a Dodger win.

I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* PERS FAV). The Mets continue to get superb pitching nearly every time that deGrom is on the mound. True, he doesn't often see too much run support. However, that can't take away from the spectacular campaign that he's turning in. Through 21 starts, he's got a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Through four July starts, he's got a 1.74 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. For the season, through 11 starts, his ERA dips to 1.66. While deGrom has allowed just six earned runs in four July starts (31 innings) Sanchez allowed five runs (4 earned) in his last start alone. Sanchez got bailed out by the offense the last time he faced the Mets; he allowed four runs in four innings, while serving up a pair of HR's. But avoided the "L" when the Marlins scored seven runs. Don't expect him to be so fortunate this time. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). The Dodgers lost again yesterday and badly need to get back on track. With Hill in excellent current form, I expect them to do just that. Two starts ago, Hill allowed just one run through six complete innings. Last time out, he was even better; he tossed seven shutout innings. In those two games, he recorded 17 K's through 13 combined innings, permitting only eight hits. Note that Hill's teams are 6-1 for his career, when facing the Brewers. Admittedly, Anderson has also pitched well of late. However, he's only 1-4 (teams are 3-7) in 10 starts vs. LA, posting a poor 5.36 ERA. Dodgers bounce back. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF THE  MONTH). Chen just got the better of Teheran, at Miami, on July 24. The Marlins won 9-3. However, as Chen isn't nearly as good on the road, I expect Teheran and co. to get some payback on Monday. In eight home starts, Chen has a stellar 2.18. However, in eight road starts, he's got a terrible 10.47 ERA. He's got a 1.10 WHIP at home but a 2.02 WHIP on the road. Opposing hitters bat .209 against him at home but .359 against him on the road. You get the idea. The NL East is still up for grabs and this is a series where the Braves can really help themselves. Expect them to start things off with a victory. 

I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Expect the bats to come to life in primetime. Gant always seems to issue a few walks and his last start (an Over) came against these same Cubs. His 4.50 ERA in four home starts is certainly nothing special. Hendricks, meanwhile, has a poor 4.70 ERA in 10 road starts, most recently a 17-run (11-6) affair at "pitcher-friendly" PetCo. He hasn't made it past five innings in any of his past three starts. One of those came against these same Cards and he gave up nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. Needless to say, that game finished above the total, as did this season's earlier start against the Cards. More of the same on Sunday night, the OVER moving to 16-8 in Cards' games for the month.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PES FAV). The Reds took yesterday's opener but the Phillies should bounce right back this evening. Velasquez is in dominant form as he hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts (13 innings) combined. In eight road starts, he's got a stellar 2.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, striking out 45 in 44 2/3 innings. While Velasquez, who allowed only four hits combined his last two games, has yet to serve up a long ball this entire month, Harvey allowed FOUR HR's (8 earned runs) in his last start alone, a span of just 3 2/3 innings. The Reds lost 9-2. The Phillies have been money, when coming off a loss. For the season, they're 29-15 (+16.5) in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here.

I'm playing on S.F (10* GAME OF WEEK). In addition to being much better in their home park, the Giants have been solid against right-handers.  Though Anderson, a fly-ball pitcher, typically prefers to pitch on the road, he got pounded (4 earned runs, 5 innings) in his last visit (2016) to SF. The Giants won that one by a score of 11-5. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last four starts vs. the Brewers. They won those four games by a combined score of 36-13. The Giants have also won Bumgarner's last four home starts overall, winning by a combined score of 24-9. In three of those four games, the opposing team scored one run or less. All things considered, this line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Arizona OVER the total (10* BEST BET). The first three games of this series have all finished below the total. Expect things to change for this afternoon's finale. Eight of Chatwood's 11 home starts have finished above the total. He's got an ugly 5.64 ERA and 1.898 WHIP in those games. Last time out, he walked six batters, striking out just two. Meanwhile, Godley walked four of his own last time out. He's got a poor 5.37 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in 11 road starts, the OVER going 6-4-1. Look for those control issues leading to the bats coming to life, these teams combining for double-digits in runs. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* ANNIHILATOR). While they were beaten by a tough southpaw (Corbin) in the series opener, the Cubs are still a lucrative 17-7 against left-handed starters. With Lester on the mound, I expect them to have the edge in Wednesday's series finale. While he struggled last time out, Lester is still 12-3 (7-1 in daytime starts) with a solid 3.14 ERA. Ray, on the other hand, has a 5.37 ERA on the season. He's not getting any better either, as he's 0-2 with an ugly 7.65 ERA in four July starts. All things considered, this price is a bargain. Cubs bounce back.

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* MAIN EVENT). After getting thumped in yesterday's opener, expect the Cubs to return the favor this evening. Hendricks could easily have a much better record, as he's been solid all season. In 10 home starts, he's got a 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Note that Hendricks has a 2.31 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in two career starts vs. Arizona, his team winning both. Buchholz has only made one start since going on the DL in June and that start was at Double-A. Even after yesterday, the Dbax are still only hitting .224 on the road compared to Chicago's .275 mark here at Wrigley. The Cubs are 15-7 (+4.3) as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They've also been money, when off a loss. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Don't be fooled by de Grom's modest 5-4 record. He's been simply outstanding. Through 19 starts, he's got a 1.68 ERA. At home, that number dips to 1.59. He's showing no signs of slowing down either. In fact, in two July starts so far, he's got a 0.56 ERA. Luchessi gets the call instead of Lauer. (THIS IS STILL A PLAY.) Either way, no match for de Grom, who has a 1.53 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in five starts (4 Met wins) against SD. While the Mets game was rained out yesterday, the Padres had to play two games. Expect it to catch up to them here.

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies took yesterday's opener by an 11-10 score. Expect the Dbax to return the favor this evening. Godley is in outstanding current form. He's 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA over his last three starts. While Godley is 5-2 at home, Freeland is 3-4 on the road. Godley already got the better of Freeland back in early June and he's 4-0 with a dominant 2.02 ERA (0.975 WHIP) in four career starts against the Rockies. His last home start against them resulted in a 7-0 victory. Arizona bounces back. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Phillies were on the road for a couple of weeks before the All Star Break. Now, they return home where they're an impressive 31-20 on the season and where they've beaten the Padres 11 of the past 15 meetings. With the pitching matchup significantly in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats and start the second half with a victory. Richard leads the Padres in innings pitched. However, he's got an ERA above five, when pitching away from PetCo. He's also 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three July starts. On the other hand, Arrieta is 2-0 with a dominant 1.89 ERA in his three July starts. For the season, he's got a stellar 2.59 ERA here at home. Phillies roll. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While they may have blanked the Sox on Saturday, all is not well for the Royals. At 27-67, they're only slightly ahead of the Orioles, the team with the worst record in baseball. Giolito held the Astros (at Houston) to only three hits through 7 1/3 innings in his last start. Giolito was also sharp in his last home start, allowing only one run through 6 1/3 innings. Both of those strong efforts resulted in 2-1 Chicago losses. However, Giolito figures to get considerably more support here. Working on three day's rest, Burch Smith is slated to go for KC Sunday. However, its more of a designated "bullpen day," as Smith won't be around long. Sox bounce back.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). With Nola on the mound, this line could easily be much higher. The Phillies' ace is off yet another dominant performance. All he did was strike out 10 through seven shutout innings, allowing just a single hit, while doing so on the road. That gives him an awesome 0.83 ERA (0.831 WHIP) his last three starts. For the season, he's 12-2 with a superb 2.27 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. On the other hand, Richards walked seven batters in 3 2/3 innings last time out. Yikes! He's got a 6.39 ERA and 2.21 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.606 WHIP. Expect Nola, who has won 6-0 and 8-1 his last two starts against Miami, to outpitch and outlast Richards, en route to another victory for the visitors. 

I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). Off a win over the Cards, Bumgarner already has a stingy 2.05 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in four home starts. During that span, he's got 25 K's against just six walks. I mention the walks as they can be an issue for Jackson. He allowed four free passes in 5 2/3 innings last time out, striking out just three. In his last three starts vs. the Giants, he's walked 12 batters in 18 1/3 innings. While the Giants had yesterday off, they A's had to fly out of Houston, after upsetting the Astros during the afternoon. With the A's at 49-68 (-15.3) vs. southpaws the past 2+ seasons, expect the Giants to improve to 31-17 (+12.2) here at home. 

I'm playing CLEVELAND on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) In a game where runs may well be at a premium, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 with Kluber and co. For the season, Kluber is 7-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in 10 home starts. (Severino is 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine road starts.) Severino served up two home runs in five innings at Toronto in his last start. Kluber, on the other hand, tossed seven shutout innings. The Indians got back on track in a big way (19-4 win) yesterday. Expect them to ride the momentum into this evening's opener against the Yankees, en route to AT LEAST a "run-line cover."

I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Mets got another dominant performance from de Grom last time out. All their ace did was toss eight complete innings, allowing just four hits and a single run. While he didn't get the win, the Mets did finish on top. That makes it 15 straight starts that de Grom has allowed three or fewer earned runs. His 1.79 ERA is the best in baseball. His 142 K's ranks 2nd in the NL and he's 6-1 (team is 10-2) in a dozen starts vs. the Phillies. Velasquez is making his first start after a short stint on the DL. He's got a 4.79 ERA while going 5-8 this season. The Phils are 0-3 his last three starts against the Mets. All things considered, this line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on LA (10* VIOLATOR). The Angels are a long way back of the Mariners and Astros in the West. While catching them is obviously extremely unlikely, Angel fans haven't entirely given up hope quite yet. In order to keep their flickering hopes alive, they know this is a series that the need to have. I expect them to start it off with a victory. Richards has a stringy 2.59 ERA in 11 night starts, opposing hitters batting only .194. Leake, on the other hand, has an ERA above four during the evening, opposing batters hitting .278. Richards got the better of Leake on July 4th at Seattle, his first start off the DL. Now with a start under his belt and pitching at home, I expect him to do so again. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). As of this writing, this line has come down a bit from its opener. Given the matchup, I feel we're getting excellent value with the visitors. Anderson is in outstanding current form for the Brewers. In fact, over his last three starts, he's got a dominant 1.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Through seven road starts, he's a got a stellar 2.88 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. As a fly-ball pitcher, this is a good venue for him. Urena, who was recently on the DL, is 2-9 with an ERA above four. His lone home start vs. the Brewers came last season and resulted in a 10-2 loss. The Miami bullpen has a combined ERA of 5.09 while Milwaukee relievers have a combined ERA of 3.11. Throw in the fact that the Brewers also hit better and you'll see why I feel this line could easily be higher. The Brewers have beaten up on sub-500 teams and they've been money when playing under the lights. Expect them to start the series/week with another victory. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies have won the first two games of the series and are red hot right now. I expect them M's to cool them down this afternoon though. Leblanc is a perfect 4-0 with a dominant 1.80 ERA in seven home starts. The M's won all seven of those games. On the other hand, Senzatela will be making his first road start of the season. While they lost yesterday's all southpaw affair, the M's are a commanding 40-21 (+20.6) against right-handed starters. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on NY (10* PERS FAV). This is a mismatch and the line could easily be higher. Stanek has solid numbers out of the bullpen but likely won't be around long. That means we'll see more of a TB bullpen which has a combined 4.29 ERA on the road. Thats not terrible. However, its not good enough when deGrom's on the mound for the other team. On the season, deGrom has a dominant 1.84 ERA. Remarkably, he's only 5-4. Expect him to finally get some support here, the Rays dropping to 1-8 the last nine times that they played a road game with an O/U line of seven or less. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). Yesterday and recent results notwithstanding, these teams are at the opposite end of the food chain. The Nats have arguably under-achieved on the season while the Marlins have arguably over-achieved. Still, even after their recent skid, the Nats are comfortably ahead of the Marlins in the NL East and only the Nats are truly chasing the Braves and Phillies; the Marlins know they're already playing out the string. The Nats know that they need to make up some ground and a series vs. the Marlins is a great place to start. Lopez, a native of Venezuela, has only made one major league start. That was a home game against the Mets on "Venezuelan Heritage Day." His parents and other family members were in attendance. To his credit, the rookie rose the occasion and pitched well. However, now he's on the road against an angry Washington team. Big difference. Note that the Marlin bullpen has a terrible 5.72 ERA on the road, too. Hellickson has an outstanding 2.63 ERA over 10 starts (1.65 at home!) and he's got one under his belt, since coming off the DL. He's also pitched very well (2.88 ERA) vs. the Marlins over his career. Nats stop the bleeding.

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). With yesterday's victory, the A's are now a dominating 27-11 against sub-500 teams. This afternoon provides another excellent chance to beat up on one of MLB's perennial weaklings. Manaea is 3-0 with an outstanding 2.84 ERA and 0.842 WHIP his last three starts. Now, he'll face a SD team which is just 9-17 vs. southpaw starters; the Padres hit a mere .217 and average only 3.4 runs vs. left-handers. Perdomo is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.50 WHIP through four starts. All things considered, this line could easily be much higher. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). The A's tend to take care of business against poor teams like the Padres. They're an impressive 26-11 (+12.7) when facing sub-500 teams. This figures to be an excellent spot to build on those stats. Bassitt comes off a gem in his last start, allowing just two hits through six shutout innings. That resulted in his first victory of the season and provides him with plenty of positive momentum. He's got a very solid 2.84 ERA through four starts. That includes a 2.45 ERA in two home starts and a superb 1.80 ERA in two starts at night. On the other hand, Richard goes for the Padres and he's got a poor 4.73 ERA on the road to go along with a 4.56 ERA under the lights. Lastly, note that the Padres are an ugly 31-63 (-17.8) the past couple of seasons, when listed as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. A's roll. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). The Sox got hammered by the Yankees last night and things don't get any easier here. Scherzer may not have been picking up "W's" lately but he's still been pitching great. For the season, he's got an awesome 2.04 ERA and 0.855 WHIP. At home, the WHIP drops to an insane 0.728. He's got 88 K's agains just 12 walks here. While Scherzer allowed one run on four hits (no HRs) through seven innings last time out, Porcello served up two long balls (4 runs overall) in just 5 2/3 innings. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* MAIN EVENT). After the Yankees won big in Friday's opener, the Red Sox won even bigger (11-0) yesterday. While this evening's game figures to be closer, the Yankees will have the advantage. Severino has been simply outstanding 12-2 (2.10 ERA) all season long and he's showing no signs of slowing down. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings, recording nine K's without walking a batter. That brings him to 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA his last three. While that was on the road, he's also 7-0 (Yanks are 9-0!) through nine home starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. It just doesn't get much better than that. While Price has pitched well of late, he was rocked his last start here at NY, giving up six runs through five innings of a 9-1 Yankee win. Even with yesterday's loss against Sale, the Yanks remain an awesome 19-6 against southpaws. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Dodgers stumbled yesterday. However, they've been great (17-7) in June overall and I expect them to close the month with a victory. Maeda really turned a corner last time out. Through seven complete shutout innings, he allowed a mere three hits, while striking out nine. He's got a 2.87 ERA in June overall and a 2.79 here at home. His lone start vs. Colorado this season resulted in a 3-0 victory, Maeda recording a dozen K's, while allowing just two hits through 6 2/3 innings. Marquez, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.81 ERA his past three starts overall. Dodgers bounce back big. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). Admittedly, Odorizzi was bad last time out. However, he's at least capable of pitching well. Through six "day games" he's got a respectable 3.99 ERA. Giolito, on the other hand, is 2-4 with a terrible 9.91 ERA and 1.872 WHIP in eight home starts. Thats not a misprint. He actually allows more runs than innings pitched here. The first two games of this series notwithstanding, the Twins are the better hitting team. With the Sox at a dismal 9-30 (-19) in day games, expect the Twins to bounce back. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). While I successfully played against the Braves the last time Sanchez started, this is a far better spot. Last night's extra-inning victory provides the Braves with positive momentum. The Reds, who were on the other side, figure to be deflated. Sanchez tossed seven shutout innings in his last home start and he's got a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP here on the season. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .164 against him here. Harvey, on the other hand, is 0-4 with an ugly 6.29 ERA through seven road starts. One of those losses came here at Atlanta, as Harvey was rocked for six earned runs in taking a 12-4 loss. In fact, Harvey's teams are just 3-9 in his 12 starts vs. the Braves, Harvey personally going 3-7 while posting a poor 4.78 ERA. Braves roll.

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). The Braves got back on track in a big way yesterday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. the Reds. Mahle has been solid of late but Foltynewic has been outstanding. Mahle allowed two home runs last time out, Foltynewic allowed just two total hits. Over his last three starts, he's allowed 0 home runs, has a 25/4 K/W ration and has allowed just two runs combined. That translates to a superb 0.95 ERA and 0.684 WHIP. Throw in the fact that the Braves are also the better hitting team and this line could easiy be higher. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). After dropping the first two games, I fully expect the Twins to bounce back with a big win on Sunday afternoon. Berrios has been solid all season and the Twins are 6-2 when he starts at home. He's got a stellar 0.877 WHIP in those games. With an outstanding 1.69 ERA his last three starts, Berrios is also currently in excellent form. Thats a lot more than can be said for Colon, who has an ugly 8.16 ERA and 1.954  WHIP his last three. No sweep here. 

I'm playing on SF. (10* PERS FAV, Listed Pitchers) The Padres took last night's game but I fully expect the Giants to bounce back this afternoon. Suarez could easily be better than 1-2 through five home starts, as he's got a superb 0.853 WHIP (3.41 ERA) here. A closer look reveals a 29/3 K/W ratio. Lyles may be off a decent start (still lost) but lets not forget that he's got an ugly 6.75 ERA through three June starts overall OR that he's 30-52 for his career.  Additionally, he's 1-3 (team 2-5) with a terrible 7.53 ERA vs. the Giants, over his career. Suarez, meanwhile, pitched very well (4 hits, 2 runs, 7 innings) in his lone start vs. SD. The Padres continue to struggle vs southpaws and they've been terrible in the role of small/med. sized underdogs for as long as anyone can recall. Giants roll. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Rangers enter this series on nice roll. However, I expect the Twins to cool them off in Friday evening's opener. Romero has made four home starts. He's 2-0 with a stellar 2.91 ERA in those games. On the other hand, Minor has a terrible 8.14 ERA through five road starts. With the Rangers averaging just 3.9 runs (and hitting only .228) per game, when playing away from Texas, expect the Twins to improve to 10-5 their last 15 in the series. 

I'm playing on SF. The Giants got back on track yesterday and I expect them to follow it up with another victory this afternoon. Urena, admittedly, has pitched somewhat better than his 2-8 record indicates. However, thats what can happen when you're supported by a porous bullpen and backed by a weak-hitting lineup. Holland, who has a stellar 2.57 ERA his last three, has the edge in both those areas. It should be noted that Urena threw a career high number of pitches last time out. A closer look at his stats shows that Urena has been respectable in the evening but has been terrible when pitching during the afternoon. In fact, in four daytime starts, he's 0-4 with a 6.43 ERA. The opposite has been true of Holland, as he has pitched much better during the daytime. In four daytime starts, Holland has a stellar 2.01 ERA. Giants roll. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* PERS FAV). The Tigers enter the series on a rare 5-game winning streak. However, I expect the Reds to cool them off here. Romano was outstanding last time out, allowing just a single run, on just four hits, through eight complete innings. I like that he's walked only two batters over his last three starts. Boyd, by comparison, has walked six batters in his last two starts alone, a span of just 11 1/3 innings. While the Tigers average 3.8 runs per game vs. right-handers, the Reds average 4.3 runs per game vs. southpaws. Cincinnati draws first blood.