I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Marlins came back down to Earth in yesterday's finale at Baltimore. Having to travel out to the West Coast, off yesterday's loss, I expect them to stumble once again. These same starters just opposed each other on 6/13, at Miami. Playing at home, the Marlins finished on top by a score of 5-4. Not all that surprising, given the home/road stats of the pitchers. Smith has been stingy at home, where he's got a 3.13 ERA. However, he's got a 4.41 ERA on the road. The home/road difference is even more apparent with Suarez. He's got a 6.18 ERA on the road, opposing hitters batting .330. However, at home, he's got a solid 3.18 ERA and an outstanding 0.83 WHIP, opposing hitters batting just .209. While the Giant bullpen has been fairly stingy (2.75 ERA) at home, the Marlin bullpen has been terrible on the road. Suarez and co. get their revenge. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While the O's have cost me in this series, I fully expect them to bounce back this afternoon. As I've noted previously, when he's on his game, Bundy is nasty. He hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two starts, a span of 15 innings. While he got no run support last time, he should get some here. Richards has a 5.71 ERA on the road to go along with a 1.788 WHIP. No sweep here. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). The O's were on the wrong side of a pitcher's duel in the opener. However, I expect them to bounce back this afternoon. Even with yesterday's loss, they're still a healthy 44-24 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range, the past 2+ seasons. Its a role that they dont find themselves in as often as they'd like, playing in the AL East. When they get there, they tend to take advantage. Cobb got roughed up at Toronto last time out. He'd been off b2b quality starts before that though and was solid in his last start here at Baltimore. Chen, on the other hand, is 0-3 with a dismal 10.31 ERA and 2.073 WHIP in five road starts. Despite averaging less than four innings per road start, he's still serving up more than a home run per road outing. O's take advantage.  

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). The Orioles have both the venue and scheudule working in their favor here. While the O's had yesterday off, the Marlins are off a extra inning (SF won in 16) game vs. the Giants. Losing figures to make that marathon take an even bigger toll. Its true that Gausman hasn't won in some time. However, each of his last three starts (and five of his last six) has come against a team from the AL East. Facing one of the weakest teams from the NL figures to help. A look at Gausman's stats show that he's had some troubles when pitching during the day but that he's quietly got a 2.91 ERA under the lights. Urena, on the other hand, has a 5.27 ERA in five road starts. Baltimore takes advantage.

I'm playing on NY (10* PERS FAV). Sabathia checks in off a great start, limiting the Jays to just three hits through seven innings. He's now 3-1 with a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 11 starts. Its been nearly a decade since he started against the Nats, so nobody is going to be too famiilar with him. (He had a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in three starts against them.) At home, Sabathia is undefeated (Yankees are 4-2 in his six starts here) and his ERA dips down to 3.07. Of course, it helps when your team averages 5.8 runs per game at home, as the Yankees do. Roark, admittedly, could easily be better than 3-6. However, its probably bad news for him that he couldnt even get victories when he was pitching well, because lately he's starting to look more and more like the pitcher who had a 4.67 ERA last season. Over his last three appearnaces, Roark has allowed eight earned runs in 13 combined innings. Thats not entirely his fault, as the Nats didn't do him any favors by having him pitch in relief (was a disaster) in the 6/3 Braves game, after he's already thrown nearly 100 pitches in the opener of the same series. To his credit, he followed that with a quality start against Tampa. However, he'll face a far more dangerous lineup here and his rhythm may still be a little off. The Yankees, who lost Sunday night, are 98-72 (+17.2) off a loss, the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). The Royals finally snapped their losing streak yesterday. However, all is still far from being well. The Royals entered the weekend averaging only 3.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, their bullpen had a combined 5.48 ERA, converting 60% of its save chances. By comparison, the A's bullpen converts on better than 76% of its save chances, 80% at home. Entering the weekend, Oakland relievers had a combined 3.55 ERA and that number dips to 2.69 here at Oakland. The A's have the advantage at the plate too, as they were averaging 4.5 runs per game, entering the weekend, 4.7 vs. right-handers. Manaea has pitched better (0.846 WHIP in 39 home innings) than his record indicates and a date with the Royals, who he beat 8-0 in his lone start (2016) against, figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Keller has still only made two starts and thats only a total of 7 1/3 combined innings. All things considered, the line could easily be higher. Expect the A's to bounce back and close the series with a victory.

I'm playing on TAMPA (10* PERS FAV). While its certainly been a disappointing season for the Rays overall, Snell has not been a part of that. Through 13 starts, he's 7-3 with a stellar 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Snell has done his very best work here at home, too. In five starts at Tropicana, he's 3-1 with dominant 0.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .185 against him here. These same starting pitchers just opposed each other at Seattle on 6/3. The M's won 2-1. That sure wasn't Snell's fault though, as he allowed just two hits through six shutout innings, striking out 12 along the way. Hernandez also pitched well in that 6/3 game. However, lets keep in mind that he's got a terrible 7.03 ERA through six road starts. Expect home-cooking to again put Snell over the top. 

I'm playing on MIKE JACKSON. Both these fighters essentially need a win here to keep their UFC careers alive. CM Punk obviously brings the much bigger name to the table. However, Jackson is favored by this much for good reason. In fact, Punk's "big name" is actually keeping this line lower than it easily could (and otherwise) would have been. With a Muay Thai and boxing background, Jackson is a more than capable striker. I expect him to finish this one by KO. 

I'm playing the METS on the RUN-LINE (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs) In a game where runs could well be a premium, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with DeGrom and the Mets. While Tanaka has been winning, he's still got a 4.79 ERA on the season and a 4.96 ERA his past three starts. On the road, his ERA climbs to 5.17. On the other hand, DeGrom has been in dominant form all season. Through 12 starts, he's got a superb 1.49 ERA. Over his past eight starts? He's got a 0.47 ERA with 68 K's in 47 1/3 innings. While I like the Mets to win this one outright, with three of those eight games resulting in a 1-run losses, I'll happily lay the price for the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on Toronto/Baltimore to finish OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). These teams were both involved in low-scoring games yesterday. However, I expect the bats to come to life this evening. Garcia made one start against the O's in his career.  That game produced 15 runs, Garcia personally allowing 10 hits (2 HRs) in 5 1/3 innings. That was way back in 2011, however, so isn't exactly relevant. What is relevant is an awful 8.02 ERA (1.702 WHIP) in his last three starts. Laat time out, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits and four runs. While Hess has been solid in a small sample size overall, he's still only made two road starts - and he's got a 1.499 WHIP in those games, allowing three home runs, in 11 1/3 innings. Note that the Jays have bounced back with much better offensive efforts, after being shutout previously this season. Expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing on NY/Toronto to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's series opener was scoreless into the 6th inning yet the teams still finished with nine runs. I expect the hot hitting from the late innings to carry over into this evening's finale. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Gray's 11 starts and he has a 5.50 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in those games. He's made two starts against Toronto this season and those games finished with 11 and 13 combined runs. Gray last justed 7 1/3 combined innings in those two starts, while giving up 12 hits and walking seven batters. Gaviglio has served up four home runs in his past two starts alone, each of those games producing double-digits in runs. Expect more of the same here. *I waited patiently to release this play, in the hope that the line might come down to 9. That hasn't (yet?) happened, so I'm going ahead and firing at the +$ price at 9.5. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* PERS FAV). The M's come in as the hotter team. However, I expect the Astros to cool them off this evening. Note that Seattle is just 28-28 the past 2+ seasons, after three or more consecutive victories. During the same stretch, Houston is a healthy 98-69, when coming off a loss. With a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, Keuchel could easily have a much better record. Paxton has been great. However, four walks, against five K's, in five innings of his last start, shows that he may be coming back to earth. He avoided the loss in that one but the M's lost 7-6. Paxton was on the mound for only 1 1/3 innings, the last time he pitched here at Houston. He gave up four hits, two walks and three runs in that short span. Paxton got the better of Keuchel (both pitched great) in a 2-1 game at Seattle. Now pitching in his home park, expect Keuchel to get some payback tonight. 

I'm playing on Arizona/SF to finish OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). The Giants saw all three games against the Phillies fall below the total. However, I expect the bats to come to life this evening. Godlley has seen four of his six road starts finish above the total. No surprise given the fact that he's got an ugly 5.81 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in those games. Holland's got a 4.94 ERA on the season and a 5.75 ERA in four home starts. Games here are averaging 9.4 runs on the season and early weather reports show a healthy wind blowing out. All things considered, this line is too low. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Greinke loves his home cooking. He's 1-4 with an ugly 6.14 ERA, opposing batters hitting .293. However, in six home starts, he's 2-0 with a superb 1.69 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .184 against him here. Lets not forget that he was also 13-1 (2.87 ERA) here last season, while again posting a losing record (4-6) on the road. It should also be noted that he's been much better at night, than during the day, in each of those seasons. Hungry to get back in the win column, Greinke should be happy to see the Marlins as his teams are a perfect 9-0 in his nine career starts against them. Expect him to continue that dominance on Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Rangers last night and I'm going against them once again tonight. Here's a matchup of a 45-year old taking on a 21-year old. With all due respect to Colon, who continues to surprise, I'm going with the youngster. Through six starts Barria is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In four May starts, he was 3-0, his ERA dipping to 2.70, the WHIP falling to 0.99. The Angels have dominated divisional opponents. Expect them to improve to 43-27 their last 70, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* VIOLATOR). The M's lost their second straight yesterday. That result notwithstanding, they've done an excellent job at bouncing back from losses this season and they should have a solid advantage here. LeBlanc hasn't earned a victory as a starter yet this season. However, that hasn't been his fault. Since moving into Seattle's starting rotation, he's made five starts. The Mariners are 4-1 in those games, LeBlanc recording a dominant 1.71 ERA. Overall, in seven evening appearances (4 starts) note that LeBlanc has a 1.52 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Minor, on the other hand, has a 5.63 ERA on the season. In four road starts, he's got an awful 8.38 ERA. Expect LeBlanc to get the better or Minor, the M's again bouncing back with an important victory. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO (10* PERS FAV). Some might be surprised to learn that the Padres are 16-5 the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. While the Marlins took yesterday's opener, San Diego should bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. Ross gets the call for the Padres and he's currently in excellent form. Last time out, he limited the Nationals to just one run, on only five hits, through 6 2/3 innings. Along the way, he recorded an impressive 9 K's, while walking just one. That marked the ninth time in his 10 starts, that Ross has gone at least six complete innings. He's got a 1.97 ERA his last three starts. In his last home start, Ross allowed just three hits and one run, through six complete innings. Admittedly, Straily has also been pitching well. However, he's still averaging less than six innings per start and a 19/17 K/W ratio reveals that he's likely ready to come back to earth. He's backed by a Miami bullpen which has been terrible on the road. Expect the Padres to continue their success as mid-sized home favorites.  

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* VIOLATOR). While he still did get stuck with a loss, Koch bounced back with a much better effort last time out. Through 5 1/3 innings, he allowed a single earned run, on just three hits. For the season, though eight appearances (7 starts) he's got a solid 3.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. You've got to give Bailey credit for one thing. He's consistent. Consistently bad, that is. He's allowed exactly 10 hits in each of his last three starts, going 5, 4 2/3 and 5 innings. Over that 3-game stretch, in addition to giving up 30 hits, he also allowed 10 walks. That translates to a brutal 2.727 WHIP. On the season, Bailey is 1-6 through 11 starts, the team going 1-10. All things considered, the line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* VIOLATOR). These team have split a pair of 1-run games so far. The Rockies won Friday's opener and the Reds took yesterday's game. For this afternoon's finale, I expect the Rockies to enjoy a significant edge. Marquez checks in off a gem. Through seven complete innings, he held the Dodgers to a mere two hits. While Harvey was also strong last time out, he's got a 6.16 ERA in four road starts. Also, his last start here at Coors (2016) resulted in Harvey giving up 11 hits (5 runs) over 5 2/3 innings. While the Reds are 59-75 in day games the past 2+ seasons, the Rockies are 70-60 (+12.1). Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* PERS FAV). The Royals won big yesterday but I expect the Rangers to return the favor this evening. Minor has struggled on the road. However, he's quietely been very solid at home. In five home starts, he's got a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP, striking out 26 against eight walks. Skoglund, on the other hand, has a 6.61 ERA on the road. While the Royals average 4.3 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, the Rangers average 4.6. Expect the Rangers to bounce back, improving to 35-21 their last 56, when listed as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing TB on the run-line (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs) While he's hasn't been quite as dominant on the road, Snell has been outstanding at home. In fact, in four home starts, he's got an outstanding 1.07 ERA and 0.829 WHIP. Why take the extra +1.5 runs? In his last start here, Snell was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 final. Though he didn't factor in the decision, Snell was also on the wrong end of a 1-0 game here against these same Red Sox, back at the end of March. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each of Snell's four home starts, one would be a perfect 4-0. Porcello bounced back with a quality start last time out. However, he's still got an ugly 6.75 ERA (1.673 WHIP) his past three. Already this season, he's been on the mound when Boston has beaten the Rays by a single run on two separate occasions. In what could well be another close one, where runs are at a premium, I'm taking the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). Admittedly, Gossett's big league numbers weren't too good. However, he's just returned from Triple-A and his confidence should be high. Thats because he had a 1.63 ERA in seven games (5 starts) there, striking out 42 in less than 39 innings. The A's already hit Gonzales hard last month, scoring four runs against him in 3 1/3 innings. Expect the A's to bounce back, improving to 13-10 (+6.4) when coming off a loss. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF YEAR), listing Velasquez and McCarthy. These same two starters have already opposed each other three times this season. In all three cases, McCarthy's Braves came out on top. Don't expect it to happen a fourth time! For Round #4, its Velasquez who's in with much better form. Over his past three starts, Velasquez is 3-0 with a stellar 2.08 ERA, striking out 21. On the other hand, McCarthy is 0-2 with an ugly 9.42 ERA his last three starts. Overall, on the season, McCarthy has a poor 5.05 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He's been particularly bad underneath the lights, as his ERA climbs to 6.30 (1.87 WHIP) when pitching at night. Velasquez, meanwhile, has a solid 3.64 ERA when pitching during the evening. Entering the series, the Philadelphia bullpen had a 2.61 ERA (1.161 WHIP) at home, while the Braves' relievers had a combined 3.84 ERA (1.327 WHIP) on the road. Given the form of the current starters, I feel this line could easily be higher. PAYBACK TIME for Velasquez!

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). These starters have already opposed each other three times this season. While Foltynewicz and the Braves did win the most recent of those meetings, the Phillies had taken the previous two. In fact, Pivetta's teams are 5-1 in his six starts against the Braves, while Foltynewicz’s teams are just 4-5 against the Phillies. Admittedly, Foltynewicz has been pretty strong on the road overall. However, the same can be said for Pivetta, here at home. In his five home starts, he's 2-1 (team is 4-1) with a 2.48 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. In 23 innings here, he's recorded an impressive 36 K's while walking just five. Foltynewicz, by comparison, has 20 K's vs. 10 walks in his road starts. Atlanta took two of three here a few weeks ago, including a 10-1 win in that series finale. Payback time on Monday. 

I'm coming right back with the LA ANGELS on Saturday. While the Rays may have beaten a southpaw in the series opener, they're still just 45-62 the past 2+ seasons against left-handed starters. On Saturday night, they'll take on Heaney, who checks in full of confidence, off "the best outing of his career." All Heaney did was record 10 K's, while limiting the Astros to a single run through eight complete innings. In four home starts, Heaney's got a 1.07 ERA. Over his last four starts overall, he's got a 1.80 ERA. Romo, on the other hand, will be making his first start, after 588 relief appearances. Also, as Yarbrough is likely to reliever him pretty early in the game, note that Yarbrough has allowed six runs in 10 innings, over his last two starts. Angels bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). Off a loss in yesterday's opener, the Angels have now dropped three straight. This should be an excellent spot for them to get back on track. Tropeano could easily be better than 1-2. Through five starts, he's got a solid 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Throw out one poor 'daytime' start and his ERA dips to 2.96, when pitching under the lights. Snell came back down to earth last time out, giving up five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Serving up three long balls didn't help matters. The Angels won 5-1 the only previous time that they faced Snell. Yesterday notwithstanding, they've taken care of business against sub-500 teams. Expect them to bounce back with a much needed win. 

I'm playing on TORONTO (10* BEST BET). The Jays got back on track in a big way yesterday afternoon. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's series opener against the A's, a team which they've dominated here at Toronto. While the Jays were done nice and early yesterday, the A's got in late. With a win over Boston last time Sanchez was on the mound, the Jays are now 13-6 his last 19 home starts. Triggs is 0-3 on the road this season and the A's are 2-5 his last seven road starts. Jays win. 

I'm playing the LA ANGELS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) Verlander got the better of Richards twice last September. Both starters pitched very well in both games. The game here at LA finished in a 1-0 final, in favor of Houston. In a game were runs could again well be at a premium, I believe that getting an extra +1.5 runs, at this price, is providing excellent value. Undeniably, Verlander has been great. However, the Astros haven't been providing him with any run support and have actually lost each of his last three starts. While not as dominant as Verlander, Richards, 49 K's in less than 40 innings, is more than capable of rising to the occasion. Over his last two starts, he's got 12 K's vs. just one walk and has allowed only three combined runs through 12 innings. The Angels won both those games and are 6-2 this season, when he takes the mound. In May, the Angels are already 4-1 when coming off a loss. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). Greinke got a no-decision last time out. However, it could have easily been better. Through seven complete innings, he allowed a mere four hits and just a single run. Along the way, he struck out six without walking a batter. The Dbax would go on to lose that game, a 2-1 loss vs. Washington. However, even with that result, they're an outstanding 19-6 the last 25 times that Greinke started at home. This season, through five starts here, he's got a dominant 1.72 ERA and 0.798 WHIP. On the other hand, through six road starts, Chacin has an ugly 6.10 ERA and 1.610 WHIP. Greinke averages better than six innings per home start. Chacin averages less than five innings per road start. The last two times that they saw Chacin, the Dbax combined for 11 runs in 11 innings. Expect them to provide Greinke considerably more support than last time, bouncing back with an important victory. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). After getting swept by the Nationals, the Diamondbacks will be happy to see the Brewers. They've taken four of six here against the Brewers, the past couple of seasons. Corbin gets the call and he's been outstanding, particularly here at home. Indeed, he's 4-0 with a dominant 1.32 ERA and 0.588 WHIP in five home starts. In 34 innings here, he's only allowed 20 baserunners, 14 hits and six walks. During that span, he's struck out an impressive 44 batters. After a hot start, Guerra has come back down to earth. He's 0-3 with a poor 5.64 ERA his last three starts. Over his past two starts, he's allowed nine runs in 10 innings. Dbax bounce back. 

I'm coming right back with the LA DODGERS on Sunday afternoon (10* GAME OF WEEK). Admittedly, Hill's numbers leave a little to be desired. However, he's now got a start under his belt, since returning from the DL and I expect him to be much better here. Lets not forget that Hill had a 2.77 ERA in 14 starts here last season, opposing batters hitting a mere .179 against him here. Note that Hill's teams are 3-0 his last three against the Reds. That includes a 7-2 win here with the Dodgers last season. (The Dodgers were laying -200 for that one.) While Castillo has an impressive K/W ratio his past couple of starts, there's nothing impressive about his 6.47 ERA through eight starts. That includes a 7.23 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in five road starts. Castillo has been particularly bad when pitching during the afternoon. In two daytime starts, he's 0-2 with an awful 8.10 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .342. Look for LA to close out the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* PERS FAV). As of this writing, the line has come down considerably from what it opened at. I believe thats providing us with very fair value. Taillon got off to a great start to this season. In fact, after three starts he was 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 0.689 WHIP. He proceeded to hit the skids for a few games and those numbers went way, way up. While its not showing up in the win column and his overall numbers remain poor, Taillon has quietly bounced back with two consecutive solid outings. He's kept the ball in the park and allowed a respectable four runs through 11 innings. Suarez has certainly pitched well but still only has one road start (1.501 WHIP) under his belt. He'll face a streaky Pirate team which comes in red hot; the Pirates have won three straight and scored 25 runs in the process. With Pittsburgh averaging 6.6 runs per game against southpaw starters, expect the home fans to leave happy. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies got blanked by the Angels yesterday, snapping their perfect 6-0 May record. However, today's opener against the Brewers offers an excellent shot at bouncing right back. While his overall numbers remain poor, Marquez has been excellent recently. Last time out, he limited the Mets to two runs through six innings. He recorded eight K's without walking a single batter. That was on the heels of a quality start on 4/28. Chacin has beneffitted from generous run support but he's actually got an ugly 5.73 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in five road starts. While Chacin would like to fare well against his former team, the road has not been kind to him. Averaging less than five innings per road start, he's walked more batters than he's struck out. I'm going with Marquez and the Rockies. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). After getting embarrassed in yesterday's opener, I expect the Royals to bounce back with a big win this evening. While its true that I won with the Royals the last time that Skoglund pitched, that was at home. Also, he didn't pitch very well. In two road starts, Skoglund is 0-1 with an ugly 8.10 ERA. Cashner has a stellar 1.69 ERA in three starts vs. KC. Last time he faced the Royals, he tossed six shutout innings but got no run support. In fact, his last two starts vs. KC were both 1-0 games. Expect him to get considerably more support this evening, en route to a win for the home team.

I'm playing TORONTO on RUN-LINE. (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) I actually really like the Jays to win this one outright. However, Seattle's last win came by a single run and Toronto is off a 1-run game of its own. In a game where runs could be hard to come by, I like the Jays at +1.5 runs even better. Its true that Stroman's overall numbers are bad; thats working in our favor in creating line value. However, he's better than those numbers indicate and he finally got things turned around last start. Despite taking a tough luck loss, Stroman allowed just two runs through seven complete innings last time out. A game against Seattle should provide him with confidence. In two starts against the Mariners, both last season, Stroman has a stellar 2.08 ERA. The Jays won 7-2 and 4-2. Admittedly, Paxton has been impressive (26 K's!) his last couple of starts; thats also working in our favor in creating line value though. Don't forget that he's still got a 4.71 ERA in four road starts though. A Canadian, Paxton will surely want to perform well in his home country. However, lets also keep in mind that he's got a 6.86 ERA in four starts against the Jays. His team did win two of those - but both wins (2-1 and 3-2) came by a single run. The Jays won the other two by a combined score of 18-4. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* BEST BET). Yesterday, the Phillies had to contend with a much tougher starting pitcher than the Giants did. (Philadelphia faced the experienced Scherzer while SF was up against the inexperienced Soroka.) Today, however, I expect the Phillies to have the edge in that department. Elfin was outstanding in this season's first start. In fact, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning. He'd finish by allowing three hits and one run, through six complete. Samardzija has a poor 5.27 ERA and 1.829 WHIP through three starts. Ten walks in 13 2/3 innings hasn't helped matters. Samardzija can't be happy to be playing here. Indeed, he's got a horrendous 15.43 career ERA here at Citizen's Bank Park. At 11-5, the Phillies have one of the best home records in baseball. All things considered, this price could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on KC (10* PERS FAV). After the Royals took the first two games of this series, the Tigers won yesterday's game. With Junis taking the mound, I expect KC to bounce back and close things out with a victory. This season's 3-2 record brings Junis to 12-5 for his career. Last time out, pitching at Fenway, he allowed just two earned runs through six innings. He faced these same Tigers, at Detroit, a few starts ago and allowed only four hits through eight complete innings. Also, note that Junis tossed seven shutout innings, allowing a mere three hits, in his lone 'daytime' start this season. That happened to also come against the Tigers, also at Detroit. So, he's 2-0 against the Tigers this season, allowing seven hits in 15 innings. Admittedly, Boyd has pitched better than his 1-2 record indicates. However, lets keep in mind that he's still 14-24 with a 5.20 ERA for his career. The Royals are scoring considerably more runs against southpaw starters than they are against right-handers. Expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) The Astros easily won yesterday's opener, Cole mowing down the Arizona hitters. However, we should see a much better effort from the Dbax this evening. Morton, admittedly, has been outstanding. (Some of you will recall that we won with the Astros in his last start.) Greinke, however, just doesn't lose at home. At least, not very often. He's 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in three starts here this season. The Dbax did lose the first of those. That was by a single run though, a 2-1 loss back on 3/31. Opposing batters are hitting just .179 against him here. While thats only three starts, consider that Greinke was also 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 18 starts last season. Thats a combined 15-1 the past two seasons. Greinke's last two starts against the Astros (2017 and 2016) resulted in 3-0 and 2-0 victories. Through 13 2/3 shutout innings, Greinke recorded 20 K's. Expect Arizona to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While the Dodgers are off a win at Arizona yesterday afternoon, the Padres had a much needed day off. That allowed them an earlier start in getting ready for the series in Mexico. Lucchesi gets the call and he's been outstanding. The Dodgers swept the Padres at Petco last month but didnt have to face Lucchesi. Through six starts, he's 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In 32 1/3 innings, he's recorded 35 K's. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on KC (10* PERS FAV). The Royals desperately need a win and this should be a great spot to get one. I really liked what I saw from Skoglund last time out. Sure, he was facing the White Sox. However, he allowed just two hits through seven complete innings, striking out nine against only one walk. That type of effort will really help his confidence. He also shoud be happy to see the Tigers. His team is 2-0 in his two starts agaiinst them, Skoglund posting a commanding 0.794 WHIP. Fiers, on the other hand, is 2-3 with a 1.80 WHIP in six starts vs. KC. He did beat the Royals on 4/22. However, a closer look shows that he allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings, without recording a single strikeout. So, he was hardly fooling the KC hitters. Look for the Royals to start off the homestand with a much-needed victory. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Marlins check in as the hotter team, the Phillies are favored for good reason. Even off yesterday's win, their fourth straight, note that the Marlins are a money-burning 11-22 (-12.2) the past 2+ seasons, after losing their previous three or more games. Going back further finds them at an ugly 33-56 (-24.2) in that situation. Nola is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.965 WHIP. He's gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, both of them comfortable Philadelphia victories. On the other hand, Urena is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Put away your brooms, Marlin fans. No sweep today. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Astros in yesterday's opener and I'm coming right back with them again here. Morton dominated the Yankees yesterday and now they've got to deal with red hot Justin Verlander. The former Cy Young winner is in dominant form to start the season. In fact, he's currently tied for first in the AL in wins (four), is second in strikeouts (48) and opponents' batting average (.153) and is third in ERA (1.36). At 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, he's as hot as any pitcher. To be fair, Montgomery has been respectable. However, his 1.41 WHIP reveals that he's allowing roughly twice as many base runners as Verlander so far this season. Expect Verlander to 'do his thing,' the home fans leaving happy once again. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* PERS FAV). While the Yankees have been red hot, I expect the Astros to cool them down tonight. Neither starter was very good last time out. In fact, each walked five batters, in less than five innings. However, Morton's been far better overall so far this season. Through five starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA. He's got 35 K's vs. 11 walks, through 29 innings. Gray, on the other hand, has an ugly 7.71 ERA to go along with a dreadful 2.143 WHIP. With a 19/16 K/W ratio, he's walked nearly as many batters as he's struck out. In two road starts, both Yankee losses, his ERA climbs to 9.00 and his WHIP to 2.714. Morton last faced the Yankees last October. You may recall him tossing five shutout innings, allowing just two hits, on 10/21. (Houston won 4-0.) Including that game, the Astros have taken seven of the past 10 meetings here against NY. Tonight, with Morton getting the better of Gray, expect them to draw first blood in this season's series. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Both starters lost last time out. However, I liked what I saw from Velasqez more. Velasquez recorded 6 K's while walking one. McCarthy had one K vs. one walk. Velasquez now had 30 K's in 26 innings, walking just seven. He's got a 1.031 WHIP in two home starts. McCarthy has already gotten the better of Velasquez twice this season. Payback time today. Expect the Phillies to bounce back, moving to 8-2 off a loss. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). Pivetta could easily be better than 1-0. Through five starts, he's got a stellar 2.57 ERA. He's got a 1.00 WHIP and has recorded 28 K's in 28 innings pitched. Over his last three starts, he has 16 K's against two walks. He didn't allow more than two earned runs in any of those games but only has three no-decisions to show for it. In three home starts, Pivetta's ERA dips to 1.89 to go along with a 0.842 WHIP. Pivetta should be happy to see Atlanta. He's 3-0 (team is 5-0) with a stingy 2.77 ERA in five starts vs. the Braves. In his last home start vs. the Braves, Pivetta delivered six shutout innings. The Phillies should provide him with some support on Saturday though. Foltynewic lasted only 4 2/3 innings last time out and he's walked eight combined batters over his last two starts alone. The Braves are 0-3 his last three starts against the Phillies. Expect Pivetta and co. to finish on top. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* VIOLATOR). The Nats got back on track in a big way last time out; their 15-2 victory on Wednesday snapped a 4-game skid. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Friday's series opener against the Dbax. Strasburg may have lost last time out but he was still very sharp. In seven complete innings, he allowed just two runs, striking out 10. He's got a 2.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. While Strasburg averages 6 2/3 innings per start, Godley is averaging less than six. He's got a 4.09 ERA in two road starts. Strasburg has made two starts against Arizona the past two seasons and the Nats won them by a combined score of 20-3. They're 31-19 (+3.6) the past 50 times that they played a game with an O/U line of seven or less and I expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Giants took yesterday's game, after also winning Monday's opener. The Nats should bounce right back this afternoon. Scherzer is already 4-1 with an absolutely dominant 1.36 ERA and 0.758 WHIP. In 33 innings, he's recorded 47 K's. The Nats are 3-0 the last three times that Scherzer started against SF. They won those games by a combined score of 13-4, Scherzer recording 27 K's against just three walks. Samardzija has only pitched five innings so far this season, walking four batters. The Giants are 0-3 his last three against the Nats and his teams are 2-7 in nine career starts against them. No sweep today. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs.) While I expect the Rangers to win this one 'outright,' getting an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price is too good to pass up. Though its been a tough start overall, the Rangers closed out the weekend with a big win, providing them some positive momentum, heading into the new week. A visit from Oakland should be welcomed by Texas fans. Note that the Rangers are 13-7 the last 20 times that they hosted the A's, (four of those decided by a single run.) Moore's numbers aren't good. However, like the Rangers, he brings some positive momentum into today's game as he got back on track in a big way last time out. Through seven complete innings, he allowed a single unearned run, on just five hits. Texas won 7-2. While Moore's teams are just 1-3 his last four against Oakland, two of those losses were by a single run. So, they'd have been 3-1 if getting +1.5 runs in each. Cahill is indeed off an impressive outing. Lets not forget that he began the season in the minors and that he had an 8.22 ERA (in limited innings) after coming over to the A.L. last season. With the A's still just 38-58 their last 96 vs. southpaw starters, I'll take the +1.5 runs with the home team. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). After beating Kershaw in the opener, the Nats probably felt pretty good about the series. The Dodgers bounced right back yesterday though and they should have a solid edge tonight. While he may not have a victory yet, Wood has a stellar 0.739 WHIP through four starts. At home, that number dips to 0.686. He's recorded 22 K's against only one walk on the season, an absolutely dominant K/W ratio. Hellickson has made only one start and he allowed eight baserunners (7 hits, 1 walk) in just 4 2/3 innings. (That translates to a 1.713 WHIP.) Hellickson's teams are 1-3 in four starts against LA and he's got an ugly 6.86 ERA in those games. Wood's last start against Washington, his lone 2017 start against them, resulted in a 7-0 win for the Dodgers. Wood tossed six shutout innings, allowing three hits while striking out eight. Lay the 'wood' with LA.

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). After taking it on the chin in yesterday's opener, expect the Angels to bounce back big this evening. Holland's teams are 0-4 his last four starts. He only made it through 4 2/3 innings last time out, allowing three earned runs. Looking back further finds that Holland's teams are a dismal 4-19 the last 23 times that he took the mound. The Angels have seen plenty of him and are 3-0 the last three times that they faced him. On the other hand, Richards will have the advantage of starting against the Giants for the first time. Richards allowed just one run last time out and is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA through four starts. The Angels have won his last three starts by a combined score of 26-8. I expect them to provide Richards with plenty of support, en route to another big win. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). After a tough series against the red hot Red Sox, the Angels should be happy to see struggling San Francisco. The Giants get Samardzija back. That's obviously a welcome sight for any Giants fan. However, don't expect him to come in and immediately dominate. He missed the first few weeks of the season with a pectoral strain and he got rocked (6 runs in 2 2/3 innings) over the weekend at High-A San Jose. The stat-line (3 ER, 5 innings) shows that Heaney wasn't that great in his first start. However, that was actually the result of one bad inning and he was decent otherwise. I like the fact that he has a start under his belt, one which saw him keep the ball in the park while recording 7 K's against only one walk. The Angels are 10-2 (+8.3) against sub-500 teams. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line. (10* MAIN EVENt, +1.5 runs) Runs could well be at a premium in this one, making an extra +1.5 runs a very attractive proposition. Carrasco struggled in his first start but has been sharp in his next two games. Berrios, however, has been even better. Through three starts, he's got a dominant 2.18 ERA and 0.629 WHIP. Through 20 2/3 innings, he's recorded 24 K's while walking only one batter. Berrios, who was born in nearby Bayamon, will be fired up and will have the support of the crowd. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* VIOLATOR). The Reds took yesterday's opener. Don't expect a repeat performance. Romano is 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in three starts vs. Cincinnati. He's gotten progressively worse with each start so far this season. Last time out, he allowed four runs (three earned) in 4 1/3 innings, walking four batters in the process. The Reds lost 13-4. He's walked more batters than he's struck out this season, an ugly 7:9 K/W ratio. Guerra beat the Cards 3-2 in his first start, compiling a 1.69 ERA in the process. He's trying to work his way back, after having started the season at Triple-A. Keep in mind that he was the Brewers' Opening Day starter in 2017, after posting a stellar 2.81 ERA in 20 2016 starts. Guerra's teams are 2-1 in three starts vs. the Reds, all of those coming at Cincinnati. He knows this is a great opportunity and I expect him to get the better of Romano this evening. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (8* ANNIHILATOR). The Rockies took yesterday's opener but I expect the Pirates to return the favor this evening. Admittedly, Bettis has been sharp for the Rockies. However, at 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA, Williams has arguably been even better. The absence of Arenado figures to hurt today, given that he as 2 for 3 with a HR and two RBIs against Williams - the only Colorado player to have taken him deep. Williams recently had this to say: "It's all coming together. Once the starts kind of get rolling and you get into that rhythm, as a staff and as a team really we're falling into our rhythm. We had a really great feeling coming out of spring training and it's been showing, that we're playing really good baseball." Pirates bounce back. 

I'm playing on TAMPA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Rays should have a solid advantage in today's all southpaw affair. Snell was outstanding last time out. In six innings, at Chicago, he allowed just one hit while recording 10 K's. For the season, opposing hitters are batting a mere .154 against him. On the other hand, Perez allowed eight earned runs, in just three innings, last time out. He's got an awful 11.88 ERA and 2.76 WHIP, opposing batters hitting an obscene .463. While thats obviously a small sample size, keep in mind that he also had a poor 4.82 ERA in 32 starts last season, opposing hitters batting more than .300 against him. The Rays are 3-0 the last three times that Perez started against them, scoring 24 runs in those games. Expect them to start the week with a victory. 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line. (10* BREAKFAST CLUB, +1.5 runs.) Prior to entering this series, each of these teams saw two of the three games in their previous series, decided by a single run. Though the first few games of this series have all been decided by multiple runs, I won't be surprised to see 'a close one' this afternoon. While the Reds have admittedly gotten off to a tough start, they've been getting quality pitching from Bailey. Last time out, Bailey allowed a mere two hits and one run, through six complete innings. He struck out seven without walking a single batter. His lone home start came against Scherzer. In that one, he allowed just four hits, also permitting just one run, again through six complete innings. While Martinez has pitched well, it should be noted that he's already issued 10 walks. Expect a motivated Reds team, which is looking to avoid being swept, to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE. (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs.) In a game where offense could well be at a premium, I feel that the extra +1.5 runs could well come into play. Ross took the loss last time out, allowing four runs through six complete innings. However, that was respectable, considering that he was pitching at Houston. I like the fact that he recorded seven K's without walking a single batter. (Note that Blach has more walks than K's this season.) Now, he's back home where he beat Colorado in his first start, a 'quality' effort which saw him allow three runs through six innings. Blach has been stingy against the Dodgers. However, the Mariners hammered out 10 hits (and six earned runs) in just 4 2/3 innings against him. The Padres are a perfect 4-0 when Blach starts against them. They won those four games by a combined score of 19-7. While I like their chances of another outright win, I absolutely expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). After playing six of their last nine against them, the Nats should be happy to see the someone else instead of the Braves. Gonzalez should be particularly happy to see the Rockies. He's a perfect 4-0 (3.58 ERA) in five starts against them. The Nats won his last two starts against the Rockies by a combined score of 24-10. Gio allowed just two earned runs in each of those two starts, going six complete innings in one and 6 2/3 in the other. Through two starts this season, Gonzalez has an outstanding 1.59 ERA, striking out 13 (while walking 4) in 11 1/3 innings. He allowed just one earned run in each start. Bettis is also off to a solid start. However, six walks (vs. 7 Ks) in 10 2/3 innings isn't a good sign. With Bettis having failed to make it to 90 pitches yet, note that Colorado relievers have a 5.33 ERA on the road. Expect Gonzalez to continue his strong start, the Nats bouncing back and improving to 80-58, the past 2+ seasons, when coming off a loss. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs.) I like KC to win this one 'outright.' However, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price is even more appealing. Both starters check in with identical 7.45 ERAs through two starts. While his numbers don't look too great so far, lets not forget that Duffy was the Royals' Opening Day starter. Also, he retired 17 of the final 20 hitters he faced at Cleveland on Friday. So, despite the 3-2 loss, he's bringing some positive momentum into this afternoon's game. These same starters opposed each other in 2016. That game finished with a 4-3 final score, in favor of KC. Including that result, the Royals are 4-2 in Duffy's six career starts vs. Seattle. Both losses came by a single run. In other words, they'd be a perfect 6-0, if getting +1.5 runs in each of those. Expect AT LEAST another run-line victory here. 

I'm playing BALTIMORE on the run-line. (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs.) While I like the O's chances of winnig this one outright, getting an extra +1.5 runs at this price is a bargain. Cashner was sharp last time out, limiting the Yankees to a single run through six innings. He's made two starts against the Jays, his team won 3-1 and lost the other by a single run. Sanchez is off a 1-run game of his own. Only two of his last 10 starts, dating back to last season, have resulted in Toronto victories by more than a run. The O's were 2-0 in two 2017 games against Sanchez. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' here. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). With all due respect to Happ and the Jays, getting the O's at home, at this price, for this matchup, is a bargain. Through two starts, Bundy has an outstanding 0.69 ERA. On the other hand, Happ has a 5.40 ERA through his first two starts. Happ has already allowed three home runs in 10 innings. Bundy has yet to serve one up, through 13 innings. More? Happ is 0-3 his last three against Baltimore. His team's are 4-10 in his 14 starts against the O's. Bundy, meanwhile, is 2-0 with a dominant 0.95 ERA (0.842 WHIP) in three career starts against the Jays. He was opposed by Happ in two of those; Baltimore won both, a combined score of 14-5. The Jays are 80-88 on the road the past 2+ seasons. The O's are 97-68 (+19.7) at home. Again, this price could easily be higher. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs) While I like the Rangers to win this one outright, I feel that the run-line presents us with an even better opportunity. Though he's had success against the Rangers for his career, Estrada's last start against them, a game here last June, saw him allow six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. Moore has thrived against the Jays over his career. He's made 10 starts against them, going 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA. His team (all 10 games were with TB) won eight of those games. The only two times he lost were by scores of 2-0 and 3-0. So, even in those games, it wasn't his fault. Though the Astros did reach him for four runs in four innings in his first start, I like the fact that he had six K's against 0 walks. He's got great stuff and is 28 years old. Command has sometimes been an issue, the reason that the zero walks was a positive sign. After taking the loss against the Astros, he's going to be anxious for a big effort in front of his new fans. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing MILWAUKEE on the run-line (10* GAME OF WEEK, +1.5 runs) While I really like the Brewers' chances of winning this one 'outright,' in a game which could well be close, I'm more than willing to lay the short price to get an extra +1.5 runs to work with. Suter has a spectacular 0.73 ERA (0.892 WHIP) in two starts vs. the Cubs. Both games were decided by a single run. Lester has seen his team go 4-2 in six starts against the Brewers. However, two of those four victories came by a single run - including his lone start here at Milwaukee. So, he'd be just 2-4 in those games, if asked to lay -1.5 runs in each. That lone start at Milwaukee may have resulted in a win for the Cubs but Lester didn't personally fare too well. He'd last just four innings, giving up four earned runs, while walking five batters. Speaking of "not faring too well," Lester got pounded by the lowly Marlins in this season's first start, giving up four runs (3 earned) in just 3 1/3 innings. During that span, he allowed seven hits and three walks, striking out just two. That translates to an 8.11 ERA and a 3.003 WHIP. At 28, the 6-foot-5 Suter is expecting his best season yet. Note that he recorded 25 K's in 21 spring innings, walking just five. The Brewers are already 2-0 against southpaw starters this season. That brings them to an outstanding 49-36 (+22.7) against the money-line, vs. southpaw starters, the past 2+ seasons. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). After the A's took the opener, the Rangers won yesterday's game. Tonight, I expect the A's to have a significant advantage. Fister brings a 1-0 record into tonight's game while Manaea is 0-1. However, those records don't tell the whole story; Manaea was actually much better than Fister. Manaea allowed just one run, on only four hits, through 7 2/3 innings, striking out seven and walking none. Fister, on the other hand, lasted only five innings, walking as many (three) batters as he struck out. Fister got roughed up (6 ER in four innings) in his last start against Oakland. Meanwhile, Manaea dominated the Rangers (1 unearned run in 6 2/3 innings) the last time he faced them. Expect the A's to bounce back, improving to 15-7 their last 22 as a host in this series.  

I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs) While I expect the Padres to win this one 'outright,' I believe that the run-line is providing us with even stronger value. Note that the Rockies have already seen half of their games decided by a single run. Ross, a former All Star, has worked his way back from injury. He's off a strong spring and is reportedly back to where he was prior to the injury he sustained in 2016. Ross had this to say: "It was a long road back. I've just now started to feel like myself again. I was pitching, but I wasn't myself. It took a long time. But it came back, and I'm thankful it did ..." SD manager Andy Green added: "This guy's worked incredibly hard to fight back from a shoulder injury and surgery. His stuff is back. His stuff is really good. ... He's found himself again, glad it's in a Padres uniform." Even with yesterday's loss, the Padres are still a lucrative 51-39 (+22) vs. the money-line the last 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). While an injury cut last season short, Triggs is ready to go this season. He recorded 25 Ks in 24 spring innings, walking just six. He'd finish with a 1.07 WHIP, opposing hitters batting just .227. At 44 years old, Colon isn't exactly blowing hitters away. He struck out 10 in spring training while serving up nearly half that many (4) home runs. In two starts vs. Texas, Triggs has a dominant 0.77 ERA and 0.428 WHIP. Expect Triggs to outpitch Colon, the A's improving to 14-6 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series.

I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (10* RUN-LINE, +1.5 runs.) While I like the Jays to win this one outright, at this price, I'm more than willing to increase my chances of success with an extra 1.5 runs. Estrada has long had success against the Yankees; his teams are 10-4 in his 14 starts against them. Sabathia, on the other hand, went only three innings in his last visit to Toronto. Though he had success here early in his career, the Yankees are 1-4 in his last five starts here. Even after losing the first two games, the Jays are 91-78 at home the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Yankees are 79-92 on the road. Expect the Jays to get to Sabathia and for them to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Braves are a perfect 3-0 when Foltynewicz starts at home against the Phillies. They won those three games by a combined score of 33-8, each victory coming by multiple runs. I expect them to have the edge once again here. Foltynewicz was sharp in the spring. Opposing batters hit a mere .196 off him. In five spring starts, he didnt surrender a single long ball. On the other hand, Pivetta was 0-3 in six spring starts, serving up four home runs in 18 innings. Expect the Braves to finish on top.

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Game 2 was a killer for the Dodgers. If they'd won that one, nobody knows what would have happened yesterday. They didn't though and now they're in trouble. Down 1-2, instead of electing to start Kershaw on short rest, they're turning to Alex Wood. LA manager Dave Woods has been clear all along. No short rest for Kershaw in the playoffs. Thats great in the regular season, fine in the first two rounds of the playoffs, certainly if leading a series. But WTF - this is the World Series and your team is down 2-1. Kershaw has waited for this moment his entire life. He's 3-0 in this year's four playoff starts, oppositing hitters batting .174. Adapt/adjust to the situation. Change your strategy and bring out Kershaw. Instead, its Wood, who's 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in the postseason, thus far. In fairness to Wood, he did have a solid season. However, his ERA was above four in September and he's certainly not in an ideal rhythm, entering today's game. Even if Wood does rise to the occasion and deliver a strong effort, I feel that the right call was/is to start Kershaw. I've pointed out a few times how Morton, who came into the posteason off a 4-1 (2.54 ERA) September, is much stronger at home. Thats true of the entire Astros team. Momentum on their side, I expect the Astros to do it again in Game 4.  

I'm playing on LA/Houston UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). After a low-scoring opener, it appeared that Game 2 was going to be "more of the same." As you know, it didn't turn out that way. If you stayed up to watch, it definitely got exciting. Off those late inning fireworks and with the series shifting to the American League park, we're getting a higher O/U line to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Darvish is in outstanding form. Indeed, he's 3-0 with a dominating 1.47 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his las three starts, recording 23 K's against a single walk. He last faced the Astros in June. That 6/12 start was here at Houston. Darvish was dominant that day, too. Through seven innings, he allowed one run on only one hit. (That game had an O/U line of 8.5 and finished with a score of 6-1.) McCullers rose to the occasion in the ALCS allowing one run on only three hits, with nine K's in 10 innings. He now has a career 2.33 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in the playoffs, striking out 20 in 19 1/3 innings. The Dodgers haven't seen much of him and that should work to his advantage. Forsythe is the only LA hitter with more than three at bats against him and no Dodger has ever previously taken him deep. All signs point to a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Astros have treated me well in these playoffs, I'm not going against Kershaw. I've stated several times that I believe that he's on a mission and that I expect him to deliver. Now, that he's finally here, I still feel the same way. The Astros have been great at home but they're only mediocre on the road. Keuchel has obviously been great in the playoffs. However, like he's team, he's not as good on the road. At home, he's got a 0.71 ERA in two playoff starts this season. On the road, however, he's 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. In the regular season, his ERA was 2.26 at home but 3.53 ERA on the road. I'm laying the wood. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). I won with Morton and the Astros for my "September Game Of the Month." For my October GOM, I won by playing against Morton and the Astros, a winner with CC. Sabathia and the Yankees. In both cases, I noted that Morton had been tough at home but not so good on the road. Though Morton's stats aren't too good on the road, he's 10-3 with a solid 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his 16 home starts. While both his October starts were on road, keep in mind that Morton was 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA in five Sept. starts. I'm well aware that Sabathia has been money, off a Yanks loss this season. That said, his team is only mediocre on the road while the Astros are exceptional at home. Verlander gave the Astros their swagger back yesterday. They earned the right to play this "winner-take-all" game here at home and I expect them to make the most of it. While many might prefer the thought of a NY/LA series, I expect the Astros to be the team which finds a way.

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). I'm not writing the Astros off quite yet. Verlander was absolutely dominant last time out, striking out 13 in nine innings. While its not easy to face the same team twice in less than a week, I expect him to be up to the task. He's now 10-2 with a 2.36 ERA in 17 'home' games, his teams going 13-4. Note that Severino has a 5.56 ERA his last three. The Yankees are still 41-45 on the road while the Astros are 52-33 at home. Expect the Astros to bounce back and force a Game 7, moving to a lucrative 19-6 the last 25 times that they were off a shutout loss.

I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF MONTH). While I won with the Cubs yesterday, I'm going with Kershaw and the Dodgers tonight. I believe Kershaw, the best pitcher of this generation, has a date with destiny in the World Series. I don't expect him to be denied. I said the following of Kershaw when I won with the Dodgers on 10/14: "If he wants to be known as one of the all-time greats, he knows that he badly needs a World Series ring." While it remains to be seen if he'll get his ring, expect Kershaw to be at his very best here, understanding the significance of the moment and delivering for his team.

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). The Dodgers have certainly been on a roll. However, I'm not counting the Cubs out quite yet. At least, not for today's game. Not with Arrieta on the mound. True, Wood got the better of Arrieta back in May. That was at LA though and Wood has never won at Wrigley. Arrieta, on the other hand, has a 2.70 ERA here this season. Arrieta took a hard-luck loss last time out, as he allowed just one unearned run. Last time he faced the Dodgers, here at Wrigely, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits. The Cubs are 74-52 the past couple of seasons, vs. southpaws. Look for them to find a way. 

I'm playing on NY/Houston to finish UNDER the total. With McCullers and Gray on the mound this afternoon, we're getting a fairly generous number to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. McCullers has a superb 2.08 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in three starts vs. the Yankees. His lone start in NY resulted in a 5-1 win, McCullers tossing six shutout innings, while recording 7 K's without walking a batter. Meanwhile, Gray has a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in nine starts against Houston. Expect a low-scoring affair.

I'm playing on NY (10* GOM). After dropping a pair of close games at Houston, the Yankees are pretty much in must win mode. I expect them to be at their best. Some of you may recall that my Sept. G.O.M. was a 5-2 winner on Morton and these same Astros. That was a regular season home game though. Morton has only been mediocre on the road. This season, he was 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 starts, averaging just 5.4 innings. In two starts against the Yankees, both here at NY, Morton has a poor 5.68 ERA. Ageless Sabathia continues to get it done. He's only started once against the Astros the past couple of seasons, a 6-3 victory against them last season. He allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings in that game. For the season, Sabathia was 14-5 overall and 7-2 in 13 starts here, the Yankees going a profitable 10-3. He's got a 2.35 ERA and 0.978 WHIP his last three. Yanks respond.

I'm playing on Chicago/LA to finish UNDER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). With a Lester/Hill matchup, we're getting a slightly higher O/U to work with than we were for the opener. As I'm expecting a "pitcher's duel," I believe thats providing us with excellent value. The Cubs aren't very familiar with Hill, which should work in his favor. His only regular season appearance against them came way back in 2011. Last season, he started them in the playoffs and tossed six shutout innings, a mere two hits. (That game had an O/U line of 6.5 and finished with six runs, a 6-0 final.) Lester, a postseason veteran, allowed just two runs in 9 2/3 innings (1.86 ERA) in the NLDS, has seen six of nine starts against LA finish below the number. Overall, he's got a 1.06 ERA his last three starts, with Hill posting a 1.59 ERA (0.941 WHIP) his last three. Look for a well-pitched affair where runs are at a premium. 

I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). While I obviously respect the Cubs, I'm not going against Kershaw here. I expect to see an extremely determined effort from the Dodgers' ace. If he wants to be known as one of the all-time greats, he knows that he badly needs a World Series ring. Off their wild and emotional series vs. the Nats, the Cubs figure to be a little drained. Kershaw, who has a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts with the Cubs, "quietly" went 19-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the season. Considering that the Dodgers were 13-2 when he started in this park, this price could easily be higher. Rested LA draws first blood.

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Initially, the price on Houston may seem expensive. Given the venue and matchup, I believe that the line could easily be higher though. The Astros are 50-33 at home; the Yankees are 41-43 on the road. While both starters are in excellent current form, Keuchel has been far more consistent on the season overall. He's 15-5 with a 2.85 ERA. At home, he's got a 2.21 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. On the other hand, Tanaka is 14-12 with a 4.56 ERA. On the road, he's 4-7 and his ERA climbs to 6.48 with a WHIP of 1.50. Yikes. Also, Keuchel is 5-2 with a commanding 1.24 ERA and 0.789 WHIP vs. the Yanks. Conversely, Tanaka is 0-3 with a terrible 8.86 ERA and 1.701 WHIP in five starts vs. Houston. In his lone start against the Astros this season, Tanaka got rocked for four home runs, giving up eight earned runs overall, while lasting a mere 1 2/3 innings. Houston rolls.

I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST OF BEST). While the Cubs lost a tough one yesterday, I expect them to bounce back tonight. Hendricks was dominant in his previous start in this series, allowing three hits through seven shutout innings. He's got a commanding 0.50 ERA his last three starts, allowing one run through 18 innings. On the season, he's got a 2.88 ERA through 25 starts. On the road, that number dips to 2.55. While the Nats did end up winning, Gonzalez didnt fare nearly as well in his previous start in this series. In five innings, he served up a pair of home runs. Though its been a solid enough season, he's 0-2 with a disturbing 7.54 ERA and 1.745 WHIP, his last three starts. The Cubs have thrived against southpaws, hitting .274 and averaging 5.4 runs. Expect them to find a way. Cubs win. 

I'm playing on Houston/Boston to finish UNDER the total (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Off another high-scoring game and with Porcello taking on Morton, we're getting a very generous O/U line here. I feel it'll prove to be too high. Just because the previous game (or games) was high-scoring, doesn't mean that this one will be too. We only need to look at the Yankees/Indians series for a recent example. They went from seeing 17 runs scored in one game to one run scored in last night's game. Morton is 3-0 with a superb 1.96 ERA his last three starts. He's made two starts against the Red Sox - one in 2014 and one a couple of weeks ago - and both finished well below the total. Those games had final scores of 4-0 and 3-2. In 10+ innings, Morton allowed only two combined runs. Porcello, obviously, had a down year. He's only one season removed from a Cy Young Award though; a strong start here will make everyone forget the regular season. Don't be surprised when this one proves to be the lowest-scoring game of the series.

I'm playing on Clev/NY UNDER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). While the wild Game 2 (9-8 final) is fresh in everyone's minds, this is an entirely new matchup. I expect it to more closely resemble Game 1 (a 4-0 final) than Game 2.

Tanaka was 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA here on the season. In his most recent start, he tossed seven shutout innings. During that dominant 7-inning span, he didn't walk a single batter and allowed only three hits all while striking out 15. In his previous home start, he limited Baltimore to two runs through seven complete innings. His most recent start vs. the Indians came last season; also against Carrasco, Tanaka allowed a single run through six complete innings, striking out eight and earning the "W" in a 3-2 game. 

Speaking of Carrasco, he's also off a dominant outing. Last time out, he tossed 8 1/3 shutout innings, striking out 14 while walking only one. For the season, he's 11-2 with a stellar 2.65 ERA and 0.997 WHIP on the road. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 11-6 in those 17 road starts. 

Even after Friday, the UNDER is still a healthy 17-4-1 in Cleveland's last 22 October games. Expect a well-pitched affair.

I'm playing on LA/Arizona to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). Yesterday's series opener was high-scoring. However, I expect the bats to slow down considerably this evening. Hill is in outstanding form. In fact, he's 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP his last three starts. Over 18 innings, he allowed just two runs, while striking out 26. Last time out, he gave up just two hits through seven shutout innings. In his last two "home" starts vs. Arizona, he's allowed just two combined runs through 13 innings, striking out 18 while walking just one. Robbie Ray pitched two innings of relief in the NL Wildcard game and gave up one run. Ray was one of the hottest pitchers down the stretch, finishing 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. He was particularly tough on the road as well, going 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA. Looks like these two should battle deep, play the under.

I'm playing on LA/Arizona to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). Kershaw's back in the playoffs and I expect him to dominate. For anyone who thought he may be slowing down, consider that he was 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.949 WHIP on the season, recording more than 200 K's. In his last home start, he allowed a single run through eight complete innings. LA won 3-1. In fact, each of his last three starts have fallen below the total. 

Kershaw made two starts against Arizona this season. In 15 1/3 combined innings, he allowed a mere six hits and just a single run. During that stretch, he recorded 19 K's, giving him 30 over his last three starts vs. Arizona. 

Walker had a stellar 2.92 ERA in 16 road starts this season, nine of them staying below the total. Three of Walker's four career starts vs. the Dodgers have stayed below the total; his last two starts here at LA both finished with final scores of 3-1. Walker won both those and allowed just two combined runs. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on NY/Cleveland to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). While the Wild Card games saw some fireworks, I expect this evening's Yankees/Indians game to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

Bauer has enjoyed an excellent season, his best. He saw the UNDER go 19-10-2 on the season. He's allowed just two earned runs, in 13 combined innnings, over his last two starts. He's also allowed just two earned runs, in 13 combined innnings, over his last two starts against NY. His last start against the Yankees resulted in a 2-1 final. 

Of course, it helps that he's supported by an outstanding Indians' bullpen which had a combined 2.58 ERA and 1.011 WHIP here on the season. With a combined 3.32 ERA and 1.159 WHIP, Yankee relievers have also been more than solid. 

Gray has been here before and won't be intimidated by the stage. In two previous postseason starts, he's allowed just three combined runs. 

With the UNDER at 16-3-1 the last 20 times that the Indians played in October, I'm expecting runs to be at a premium. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GOW). The Dbax earned the right to play this game here by being better than the Rockies during the season. Thats extremely signficant given that Arizona was 51-29 here while Colorado was 41-40 away from home. The Rockies were 33-48 on the road last season and 32-49 the year before that. While 41-40 is an improvement, its still very mediocre. Now, they're up against a former Cy Young Award winner who, at 17-7 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, has delivered another Cy Young type campaign. Greinke has been particularly tough at home this season. Indeed, he's 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP here, striking out 131 (23 walks) in 116 innings. He's also 15-6 with a 2.93 ERA when pitching under the lights. In fairness, Gray has also been good. However, his 4.06 ERA on the road is "nothing special." All things considered, the price could easily be even higher. I'm going with Greinke and the home team.

I'm playing on NY/Minnesota to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Seven of the last eight meetings between the Twins and Yankees have fallen below the number. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair for Tuesday's Wild Card showdown.

Severino has been exceptional this season. Through 193 1/3 innings, he's recorded 230 Ks while posting a stellar 2.98 ERA. 

Joe Girardi said this of Severino: "It's been an unbelievable season. The young man has pitched really, really well and he's a big reason why we're here at this point."

Santana got off to a hot start and has been the Twins ace all season. An All-Star for the first time, his 3.28 ERA ranked 11th best in the majors. He finished strong too, recording a solid 3.31 ERA in six September starts. Four of those six games fell below the total. Santana's lone 2017 start against the Yankees resulted in a pitcher's duel, a 2-1 final. In fact, his last two starts against NY have both had 2-1 final scores. More of the same on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* PERS FAV). The Rangers have thrived as small/medium-sized home favorites and they should have an advantage again this evening. Cashner has been solid this season and could easily have a much better record than he does. In 27 starts, averaging six complete innings, he's managed a 3.42 ERA. He's been particularly strong here at home. In 13 home starts, Cashner has a 2.70 ERA. While he often doesn't get much in terms of run support, Cashner should get plenty today. Gossett has allowed 20 home runs in less than 90 innings pitched. Last time out, he gave up four home runs in 4 1/3 innings. He's now 0-2 with a 10.05 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his last three starts. Expect Cashner and co. to finish on top. 

 I'm playing on TAMPA BAY (10* PERS FAV). Given the current form of the starters, I expect the Rays to take tonight's series opener. Odorizzi is 3-1 with a superb 1.21 ERA in September. In 22 1/3 innings, he's struck out 26 batters. On the other hand, Miley is 0-3 with an ugly 13.94 ERA and 2.297 WHIP his last three starts. Miley 0-2 against the Rays this season while Odorizzi is 2-0 his last two against Baltimore. Rays win. 

I'm playing Texas on the Run-Line (+1.5 runs, 8* ANNIHILATOR)). I actually like the Rangers to win this game "outright." However, if they're going to give me an extra +1.5 runs at such a reasonable rate, in a game that could well be "close," I'm happy to take them.

Speaking of "close games," facing these same A's, Gonzalez lost his last start by a 1-0 score. He allowed that lone run, while pitching six complete innings. He's only had four starts here, since coming over from Chicago. He's been getting stronger each time out and he'll be looking to close the season on a high. 

Manaea was scratched with a bad bad for his last start. That being the case, its hard to figure exactly why they're sending him out for one final meaningless night start on the road. He's 5-7 with a 4.86 ERA on the road, not nearly as good as his home starts. He's also been MUCH worse when pitching at night than during the day. In 11 daytime starts, Manaea is 6-1 with a 3.57 ERA. However, at night, he's 5-9 with a poor 5.26 ERA. Additionally, Manaea is 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA in three career starts here, at Globe Life Park. 

I'm playing on BOSTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). Put away your brooms, Toronto fans. After dropping the first two games of the series, I expect the Sox to bounce back in a big way this evening.

After yesterday's loss, knowing the Yankees are now within three games of them, with five to play, manager John Farrell had this to say: "We know where we stand, we know what's ahead of us. We've gotta go out and take care of business tomorrow with Rick on the mound."

Obviously, Porcello hasn't had nearly the type of season that he did last year. He continues to battle though and he typically gives the Sox a chance to win every time out. Last time out, after giving up a first inning grand slam, he battled back, didn't give up any more runs and hung around long enough for Boston to come back and win. 

In his previous start, prior to facing the Reds, Porcello allowed a single unearned run, on just five hits, through 7 1/3 innings. In other words, he's shown some real signs of "coming around." 

Admittedly, Estrada has had some success against Boston this season and pitched fairly well of late. That said, he's already signed a contract now - and he's still got a 4.96 ERA on road and a 4.89 ERA under the lights. Bosox bounce back. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). Off a loss in yesterday's opener, with a southpaw on the mound, I expect the Rockies to bounce back with a victory this evening.

Anderson missed some time with a knee injury. Since coming back, he's been sharp. In three appearances, two starts, he's recorded a 1.72 ERA. In his lone home start, since returning, saw him deliver six shutout innings, allowing a mere two hits. The Rockies won 16-0.

Admittedly, Urena's had a pretty solid season. That said, his 4.34 road ERA is only mediocre and he averages just 5.4 innings per road start. Thats noteworthy as Marlins' relievers, who have blown 24 saves on the season, have a combined ERA which is above five, when playing on the road.

The Marlins haven't hit southpaws well all season. They average 4.1 runs per game vs. left-handers. Not surprisingly, they're just 12-19 (-5.9) in those games. Rockies bounce back. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). The start time figures to favor the Rockies in this one. Marquez is 3-2 with a solid 3.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 10 daytime starts. Perdomo, on the other hand, is 0-5 in 10 daytime starts for SD. While he got a "W," Perdomo, who has a poor 4.59 ERA here at Petco was shaky last time out, walking six batters in 5 1/3 innings. Thats never a good sign. Marquez, on the other hand, delivered a quality start last time out but took a loss. Marquez was much stronger than Perdomo when the two opposed each other on 7/17. I expect Marquez to get the better of him again this afternoon, the Rockies closing the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* PERS FAV. The A's have taken five of six meetings as a host vs. the Rangers this season. I believe they're offering us excellent value in tonight's opener. Both teams are hot. Each swept their last series. While the Rangers played and won last night, the A's had the day off. Graveman checks in with a 4-0 record to go along with a stellar 2.98 ERA in nine home starts. Last time here, up against Keuchel, he held Houston to one run through six complete. The A's won 10-2. Graveman's last start was shortened due to rain, but he was cruising (2 shutout innings, 1 hit) before that happened. Martinez, on the other hand, is 3-6 with a 5.47 ERA in 16 starts on the season. That includes a 2-5 mark with a 5.70 ERA on the road. Last time out, he gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Graveman already beat Martinez here last month, allowing one run through seven innings. He's got a 2.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in three starts against them on the season. All things considered, the A's could be a larger favorite.

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). I lost with the Dbax yesterday; they're now 0-2 in the series. That won't stop me from coming right back with them to avoid the sweep though. Arizona is a perfect 5-0 the last five times that Ray took the mound, winning those five games by 18 combined runs. In those five starts, one against these same Padres, Ray allowed only six combined runs through a total of 32 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.39 ERA. Over that span, he had an awesome 55 K's while issuing just six walks. In fact, he's off four straight double-digit strikeout efforts. Dominant. While it certainly hasn't all been his fault, as he's actually been fairly respectable, the Padres are 0-5 in Lamet's last five starts. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier for the rookie here, as he's unlikely to get much in terms of run support. The Padres average less than 3.5 runs per game vs. southpaws and they're facing a red hot one. Behind another strong effort from Ray, an angry Arizona team bounces back and closes out its road trip with a win. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs RUN-LINE GAME OF MONTH) I won with the Twins yesterday, a 13-7 victory over Toronto. Facing a Yankee team which lost 6-4 yesterday, I expect the Twins to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Santana tossed six shutout innings in his last start. He gave up just three hits and one walk, while striking out seven. While that was at home, he's also 9-2 with a stellar 2.74 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in 14 road starts. On the other hand, Garcia is 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 home starts. It should be noted that Garcia has failed to last six complete innings in six straight starts. He's gone five or less in each of the last three. While I like the Twins chances of winning "outright," with each of Garcia's last two starts decided by a single run, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* MAIN EVENT). The Dodgers have taken the first two games of the series, putting some ground between them and the Nats for home field in the playoffs. With a red hot Strasburg on the mound, I expect the Nats to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Its been weeks since Strasburg gave up a run. Literally. He's gone 34 innings without allowing one. Last time out, he allowed two hits through eight shutout innings, striking out 10. Ryu, who walked five in his last start, may be a little out of rhythm as he hasn't pitched in 10 days. No sweep here. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). While they've actually had more success on the road this season overall, after a long 10-game trip, the Astros should still be happy to return home. 

Morton should be happy, at least. He's 8-3 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts here, considerably better numbers than he has on the road. Its also worth mentioning that Morton is 9-4 with a 3.47 ERA when pitching under the lights, also much better than his daytime stats. 

Additionally, Morton has had success against the top Seattle hitters. Cano and Seager are both hitting .143 against him, while Cruz is hitting .250 against him. None of those three have taken him deep. Neither has Valenica, who hits .111 against Morton.

Interestingly, all of Morton's previous starts vs. Seattle have come against Paxton. That's who he'll face again here. Unfortunately, for Paxton and Seattle fans, he's making his first start back from the disabled list and is expected to be on a very limited pitch count. That means the Astros are likely to be seeing some of Seattle's long/middle relievers. 

While the M's may have finished on top in two of the three previous Paxton/Morton matchups, expect Morton and co. to settle the score here. Given the venue and Paxton's expected limited availability, I believe the opening price is a bargain. *GOM

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Diamondbacks got on track in a big way last night; I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Godley checks in off back-to-back dominant outings. Two starts ago, facing these same Rockies at Colorado, he allowed just three hits and one run, through six innings. He got the "W" in a 5-1 Arizona victory. Last time out, though he didn't factor in the decision, Godley was arguably even better, as he eliminated the walks which had been an issue at Coors. Through seven innings, he recorded an impressive nine 9 K's, without handing out a single free pass, while allowing just four hits and two runs. Bettis won last time out but he didn't exactly deserve it. Through five innings, he allowed four runs, three of them earned. He now has a 7.20 ERA, when starting on the road. While Bettis also has an ugly 6.23 ERA and 1.818 WHIP in six starts vs. the Dbax, Godley is 2-0 with a stellar 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two starts vs. the Rockies, those strong numbers coming at Coors. Facing the Rockies for the first time at home, where the Dbax are now 47-27, expect Godley to continue his success for another day. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Rockies are rolling right now and have taken the first two games of the series. I expect Corbin and co. to slow them down tonight though. The Dbax have seen a lot of Marquez this season, most recently beating him on 9/3. Overall, Marquez has allowed 13 earned runs in 28 2/3 innings against the Dbax this season, a span of five starts. By comparison, Corbin has only made three starts against Colorado this season. He allowed one earned run or less in two of the three. In this season's lone home start vs. Colorado, Corbin limited the Rockies to just two hits, through 6 1/3 shutout innings. Arizona won 2-0. The Dbax are 11-4 in Corbin's 15 career starts vs. Colorado. They're also 4-1 when they've faced Marquez. Even factoring in the results from the first two games, the Rockies are still 39-34 on the road compared to the Dbax 46-27 mark at home, second best in the league. Dbax bounce back.