I'm playing on SF/SD UNDER the total. Both these starters should be happy to see PetCo Park. Samardzija, who has a 2.89 ERA and 0.803 WHIP his last three overall, has a stellar 2.42 ERA here for his career. In his last three starts here, he's allowed just three combined earned runs, through 22 innings. Thats an average of more than seven innings per start, allowing an average of just one run. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four against the Padres overall. After struggling at Wrigley last time out, Lucchesi is also going to be happy to get home. On the season, he's got a 2.83 ERA and 1.037 WHIP here. Two of Lucchesi's three 2019 starts against SF stayed below the total. The only time he faced them at PetCo this season, Lucchesi didnt allow a run and the final score was 4-1. Since a few high-scoring games to begin the month, the Padres have seen the UNDER go 13-3 their last 16. Yesterday, they failed to score a single run. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Miami/Chicago UNDER the total. A look at the overall stats from either starter isn't that impressive. Gallen has a solid 3.63 ERA but an 0-2 record. Lopez, meanwhile, is 5-8 with a poor 5.76 ERA. However, I really like the direction in which each of them is trending. Gallen went h2h with Ryu last time out. He allowed two runs, only of them earned. The Marlins lost 2-1. Miami manager Don Mattingly had this to say of Gallen's effort: "I thought he attacked, got himself in good counts, stayed on the hunt. That's the kind of game that’s really good for him." Lopez, who will be happy to see the lowest scoring team in baseball, has quietly been outstanding his last two starts. Over that 13 inning span, he's allowed just two total runs, striking out 15 while walking only three. After striking out eight and winning his last start, Lopez commented: "It makes you feel excited and happy. That's something that gives you some extra energy. To see everybody pushing, seeing everybody trying to do their best, hustling, that’s something that lets you know you also need to do your job and execute and help the team in every particular aspect of the game. It's fun, and it's nice when you see that and you feed off of that energy." Expect Lopez to carry his positive second half momentum into this one, the final combined score ultimately falling below the number. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. I expect the Mets to have a major edge on the mound in this one. When he's on his game, Syndergaard is a dominant pitcher. Thats absolutely been the case of late. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, striking out a total of 17, while walking only one, during the 14 inning stretch. Over those two games, he allowed just three combined runs. The trade deadline is fast approching and reports are the Padres are among the teams which covet Syndergaard. Expect him to show San Diego just how dominant he can be. Syndergaard should get plenty of support. Lamet has a 5.14 ERA through three starts. Last time out, he lasted just four innings against the light-hitting Marlins, giving up six hits in the process. He has yet to go more than five innings. Syndergaard has faced the Padres three times at PetCo but only once at New York. In that game, he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits. He had nine K's without walking a single batter, en route to a 4-0 victory. Syndergaard, a rookie at the time, retired the first 18 batters he faced. In what has a chance of being his final start here as a Met, expect him to get the better of Lamet, en route to a victory for the home team.

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Cards took yesterday's game but I fully expect the Pirates to bounce back this evening. Archer has quietly delivered b2b quality starts, the most recent coming against these same Cardinals. Over that 12 inning span, he's got an impressive 18 K's while walking just four. While he's had trouble on the road, Archer has been respectable at home. Hudson has also been much better at home; he's got a poor 1.58 WHIP on the road. Opposing batters hit .279 against him, away from St. Louis. In addition to giving up a fair number of hits, over his last three starts, he's walked nine batters in 16 innings. In two starts against the Cards this season, Archer has allowed only three combined runs and just seven total hits, while striking out 16, through 11 innings. Hudson only made one start against Pittsburgh and he gave up nine hits, while striking out two. Look for the Pirates to move to 90-60 (+11.8) the past 150 times that they were favored by -110 or greater. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Arizona UNDER the total. Ray has been more than solid for the Dbax. In eight starts here, he's got a 3.45 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, striking out 64 in 44 1/3 innings. Opposing batters hit only .199 against him here. Ray has been excellent this month, too. In three July starts, he's 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .156. While Brooks hasn't been going deep into games, he's also only allowed a single run in his last two starts combined, a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting .133 against him this month. With Brooks not expected to go deep, note that Wojciechowski gave the Oriole bullpen a nice break yesterday, as he went 7+ innings in the 5-0 win over Boston. Look for the UNDER to improve to 11-6-3 when Arizona plays a home game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I successfully played against the White Sox when Nova was on the mound on 7/12. So, I'm aware that he's been struggling. I believe that this evening's game offers him the perfect opportunity to get back on track. Not just because the Marlins hit the fewest home runs (and score the fewest runs) in baseball either. Nova has dominate the Marlins, so he's going to come in with some extra confidence. Indeed, he's 4-0 with a superb 0.98 ERA in four career starts vs. Miami. Nova was actually very sharp in his last home start, blanking the Cubs through 5 1/3 innings. Richards is 3-11 on the season and he's not getting any batter. Indeed, he's walked eight batters in his two July starts, while allowing 14 hits, a span of just 10 innings. That translates to an ugly 2.20 WHIP. Back home and catching the Marlins traveling across the country from LA, expect Nova and the White Sox to grab the opener. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Consistency counts. One might be surprised, given his mediocre overall numbers, but Pineda (6-5, 4.38 ERA) has been remarkably consistent. In fact, over his past dozen starts, he's allowed more than three earned runs only once. After shaking off an ugly April, which saw him compile a 7.20 ERA, he's just gotten better and better. He had a 4.50 ERA (0.97 WHIP) in May, a 3.58 ERA in June and so far through two July starts, he's got a 1.50 ERA. Off another excellent outing, he's now allowed just one earned run in five of his past six. Prior to a strong start against Seattle, Mengden had arguably been going the other way, as he had a 6.48 ERA in June, after a much better May. The Twins will be seeing him for the second time in three weeks; they scored five runs, on eight hits, in just five innings against him on July 2nd. Mengden was very fortunate to still win that game (8-6) but he's highly unlikely to get that kind of run support against red hot Pineda. While the Twins just got a look at Mengden, the A's havent seen Pineda yet this season, another factor working in his favor. Pineda's last two starts against Oakland came in 2016 and 2017, when he was with NY. His team won both of them. Expect more of the same Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on Colorado/NY UNDER the total. While I won with the Yankees/Rockies 'over' the number yesterday, I'm expecting to see far better pitching this afternoon. The big difference is that I respect Marquez a lot more than yesterday's starter, Senzatela. True, Marquez wasn't very good last time out. In fact, he was terrible. However, that can happen sometimes at Coors. He's far better on the road, where he boasts a 3.30 ERA and a stingy 0.90 WHIP. Naturally, he's going to be highly motivated to bounce back with a much better performance. Paxton has been sharp since returning to the rotation. He's got a 2.50 ERA in July, striking out 21 in 18 innings. All three of his July starts have been quality. On the season, he's got a 3.22 ERA through nine home starts. With all due respect to the offenses, this number is too high. Go with the Under. 

I'm playing on KC/Cleveland UNDER the total. While the Indians erupted for 10 runs yesterday, they're still one of the lower-scoring teams in the league. They average 4.6 runs per game, just 19th in baseball. They also rank 20th, in terms of average. Note that the UNDER is 28-18-2 the past 2+ seasons, after they scored double-digits in runs in their previous game. KC averages even fewer runs than Cleveland. The Royals rank just 25th in baseball in scoring, 28th in terms of home runs. Plutko held the Royals to a single run when he faced them last month. While he only went four innings in that one, he gave up just one hit and didn't walk a batter. The final score was 3-2. He's got a start under his belt, since returning to the rotation, and I expect another fairly solid effort from him here.  Junis has turned the corner recently. Two starts ago, he limited Washington to two runs through seven complete innings. Last time out, he was even better. Once again, he went seven complete innings. This time, he allowed just one run, while striking out 10. I won with the 'under' in that one and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Cards won a wild one yesterday but I expect the Reds to return the favor today. Castillo has been brilliant all season, particularly here at home. In 10 starts here, he's got a superb 1.83 ERA and 0.875 WHIP. On the other hand, Mikolas has been terrible on the road. In nine starts away from St. Louis, he's got an ugly 7.40 ERA and 1.669 WHIP. The last time that Mikolas faced Cincy, the Reds won 12-1. On the other hand, the Reds are 4-0 in Castillo's last four starts against the Cards, winning 4-1, 4-0, 2-1 and 8-2. Castillo allowed just four combined runs through those four games! The Cards, 9-18 as road underdogs, are just 4-9 their past 13, when coming off three straight divisional wins. Look for the Reds to move to 3-0 their last three, when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent hit double-digits in runs. 

I'm playing on Oakland/Minneosta UNDER the total. Both this evening's starters were sharp last time out. Odorizzi limited the Indians to three hits and one run. The final score was 6-2. On the season, Odorizzi has a stellar 2.27 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in eight home starts. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 9-3-1 his last 13 starts here. Bassitt tossed six shutout innings in his last start, allowing just four hits. In four appearances (1 start) vs the Twins, he's got an excellent 1.54 ERA. Expect a relatively well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Nola goes for the Phillies and he's currently in outstanding form. Last time out, he struck out nine over six innings, allowing a single run. That gives him a superb 0.87 ERA his past three starts. In fact, he's got a 0.76 ERA his past five. On the season, Nola has a 2.74 ERA in 12 home starts, much better numbers than he has on the road. The UNDER is 3-0-1 his past four starts here. Stripling was also sharp last time out, delivering arguably his best start since taking Hill's spot in the rotation. He limited the Red Sox to a single run, striking out seven without walking a batter. On the season, he's got a solid 3.22 ERA through five road starts. Four of those fell below the number. Nola has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all three career starts against the Dodgers, just six runs in the three games total. Stripling has a 2.45 ERA during the afternoon this season. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. While I lost with the Rockies yesterday, I'm coming right back with them today. Pitching at Coors can be tough but Gray has cracked the code. In nine home appearances, eight starts, he's 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Over his last seven games overall, Gray is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA. Anderson, a rookie, will be making his first career start at Coors. Again, thats not always so easy. Over his past three starts, Anderson has an ugly 6.13 ERA to go along with a 1.772 WHIP. His last road start came at PetCo and he allowed four earned runs, on eight hits, in just four innings. Gray has been excellent in both this season's starts against SF. He allowed 0 runs through six innings last time he faced them and one run through 6 2/3 innings in his previous start against them. No sweep here!

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Rockies got absolutely embarrassed in yesterday afternoon's opener. Then, they lost again in the nightcap. Overall, they were outscored by a 21-3 combined score on the day. That's going to have them thinking payback today. I expect them to get some. Admittedly, Lambert has had some trouble at Coors Field so far this season. However, he was respectable in his last start here - after giving up a pair of early HR's, he settled down and eventually allowed just four runs overall. That was against the Astros, too, one of the better hitting teams in the league. Now, he'll face the second lowest-scoring team in the NL. Lambert figures to get plenty of support. Not only are the Rockies itching for some payback, they're also facing a struggling pitching in Pomeranz. Last time out, Pomeranz gave up four runs in four innings. On the season, he's 2-9 with an ugly 6.42 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Pomeranz has been particularly bad on the road. Indeed, he's 1-4 with an awful 9.76 ERA and 1.99 WHIP in seven starts away from SF. Opposing hitters are batting .336 against him on the road. Even factoring in last night's loss, the Rockies are still a healthy 17-8 the past 25 times that they were favored in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to bounce back with a big win. 

I'm playing on Toronto/Boston OVER the total. Fans of good pitching may want to steer clear of this one; both these starters are in horrible form. Thornton has an ugly 9.00 ERA and an awful 2.00 WHIP his last three starts. Amazingly, Porcello has been even worse. Over his past three starts, the Boston right-hander posted a dismal 12.75 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. Over that 12-inning span, he gave up 17 earned runs! The first of those came vs. the Jays. Porcello allowed five runs on eight hits, walking twice as many (4) as he struck out. Since then, his next two games have produced 46 combined runs, a 17-13 score and a 10-6 one.  Speaking of 10-6 scores, the Sox saw Thornton less than two weeks ago. In just three innings, they pounded out 11 hits (7 earned runs) against him, en route to another 10-6 final. Both his career starts vs Boston have produced a minimum of a dozen runs. Six of Porcello's last eight against the Jays have produced a minimum of 11 combined runs. Expect more of the same Monday!

I'm playing on Chicago/Oakland UNDER the total. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I expect a lower-scoring contest this afternoon. Anderson has quietly been very solid for quite some time now. In fact, he's quietly allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. Not surprisingly, six of his last eight starts, including each of his past two, have stayed below the total. Lopez didn't have a good first half but the second half offers a chance for a fresh start. Pitching at Oakland figures to get him going. In his lone start here, Lopez recorded 10 K's while allowing just four hits through six complete innings. Yesterday notwithstanding, the 'under' has been profitable when Chicago plays on the road and also when Oakland plays at home. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Detroit/KC UNDER the total. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I expect pitching to take center stage on Saturday. Yesterday's game featured the Royals with a southpaw aned the Tigers with a right-hander. Today's game is the opposite (Detroit has a left-hander and KC has a right-hander)  and that will favor the pitchers. Over his past two starts, Boyd has an absolutely dominant 24/1 K/W ratio. Yes, he's struck out 24 in 12 innings! (In his last two starts against the Royals, he has 16 K's vs. just three walks.) Boyd will face a KC team which is just 8-17 (.241 avg.) vs southpaw starters. Meanwhile, Keller will take on Detroit lineup which averages just .230 against right-handed starters, while going a dismal 22-47. Keep in mind that these are the two lowest-scoring teams in the entire American League. Go with the UNDER!

I'm playing on LA (10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR). While the Padres have scored back-to-back upsets, we can expect a much different result this afternoon. The last time that Lucchesi pitched here at LA, the Dodgers won 14-0. Lucchesi lasted just 3 2/3 innings, got taken deep three times and gave up seven earned runs. In fact, the Dodgers are a perfect 4-0 when Lucchesi has taken the mound. On the season, Lucchesi is 6-2 with a solid 2.76 ERA at home but 0-2 with an ugly 6.10 ERA on the road. Stripling gets another start in place of Hill. I like the seven K's he produced last time. Facing a team which he's had success against, I expect him to build off that effort here. Note that Stripling made four starts against the Padres in 2018 and only gave up two total earned runs. The Dodgers are a dominant 17-5 in day games, which goes hand-in-hand with their 13-1 record on Sundays. Going back further finds them at 78-37 (+18.6) in day games, the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to bounce back with a big win here. 

I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. (10* Blue Chip) While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I expect pitching to take center stage this afternoon. Both starters are in excellent form. Nola has allowed just one earned run over his past three starts, a span of 23 innings. Over that span, he's struck out a dominant 28. That translates to a 0.39 ERA! He's got a very stingy 0.696 WHIP to go along with it. Wheeler has been nearly as good. Over his past three starts, he's allowed just four runs, good for a 1.86 ERA. These same two starters just squared off on 6.27. Both were excellent. That game was a terrible beat for those who had the UNDER as it was 0-0 into the bottom of the 6th and 1-0 going into the ninth. Then, the teams combined for 8 runs in the ninth inning. That won't happen here. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Toronto UNDER the total. Yesterday's game produced just five runs. With both starters in good current form, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Cashner, who could find himself on a contender before too long, had a dominant 1.44 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four June starts. He didn't serve up a home run the entire month. When Cashner faced the Jays earlier this season, he tossed six shutout innings. The final score was 2-1. Going back further finds that his last six starts against the Jays have all finished with fewer than 10 combined runs. In fact, there were only 33 runs scored in the six games combined, just 5.5 rpg. Admittedly, Richard's overall numbers are pretty ugly, a big part of the reason for the high O/U number. However, he's turned the corner of late. I won with the Jays in Richard's last start, a home win over the Royals. That was his second straight quality outing, the first coming at Yankee Stadium. Richard faced the O's a couple of times earlier in his career. Both those starts finished with single digits in runs. The Under has been money when the Jays were home favorites of this size. Look for this one to finish below the generous number. 

I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona UNDER the total. With both starters in excellent current form, I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. Greinke is 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the season. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings. Senzatela loves pitching away from Coors lately. He's 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA his past three on the road. He also thrives against Arizona. Over his last three starts vs. the Dbax, Senzatela has allowed just four combined runs in 19 2/3 combined innings. Not surprisingly, all three of those games stayed below the total. In fact, he's seen five straight starts against Arizona finish Under the number. As for Greinke, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts against Colorado. The Rockies, who lost 4-2 on Wednesday, have seen the UNDER go 40-22-5 the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss of two runs or less. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. I like the home team on July 4th at Arlington. Lynn is in excellent current form and he's had recent success against the Angels. He's 10-3 with a 3.68 ERA his last 15 starts, 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA (0.92 WHIP) his last six. Last time out, he struck out 10 Tampa hitters, allowing just three hits and one walk, through eight dominant shutout innings. Over his last three starts against the Angels, a span of 18 2/3 innings, he's allowed just five combined earned runs, two runs or less in all three games. After a strong May, Canning was 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in five June starts. Note that the Angels are just 34-51 (-9.1) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of +150 or less. Look for the Rangers to improve to 35-15 (+13.1) the past 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on Arizona/LA UNDER the total. Buehler struggled last time out. However, that was at Coors Field and he still finished June with a superb 2.45 ERA. Here at home, he's 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA and a dominant 0.77 WHIP. Opposing batters have hit only .185 against him here. When Buehler faced Arizona earlier, he allowed just one run and two hits through eight complete innings. In that start, Buehler had 11 K's without walking a single batter. Including that 3-1 final score, three of Buehler's four career starts vs. Arizona have fallen below the total. Kelly, who will have the advantage of starting against LA for the first time, had a stingy 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in six June starts. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. While I backed the Jays yesterday, I'm going against them here. Price gets the call and thats never a welcome sight for Jays' fans. Over his career, Price is an absolutely dominant 22-3 with a 2.37 ERA. Last time out, Price limited Chicago to two runs through six complete innings. He had an impressive nine K's without issuing a single walk. In his previous start, Price held the Twins to a single run. On the other hand, Thornton allowed five runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start alone. On the season, through seven home starts, he's 0-3 with a terrible 6.39 ERA. Expect Price to get the better of Thornton, the Sox drawing first blood in the series. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. Richard has faced some tough opponents of late; his last three starts came at Houston, vs. LA and at NY. He's gotten progressively stronger in each. Last time out, he limited the Yankees to three runs through six complete innings. Not bad, for Yankee Stadium. Now, facing a far less intimidating lineup, I expect him to bring some positive momentum to the mound. Richard last faced the Royals way back in 2011. He won 4-2 that day, while pitching for the Padres. Richard should get plenty of run support. Not only are the Jays swinging the bats well these days but Sparkman has a terrible 7.85 ERA on the road, opposing hitters batting .299. Playing in front of the Canada Day crowd, expect the Jays to close out the series with a win. 

I'm playing KC/Toronto UNDER the total. Both starters are in excellent form and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. Last time out, perhaps auditioning himself, Stroman tossed six shutout innings at Boston. He has a 2.76 ERA in seven road starts. Thats three straight quality starts; he's allowed just four combined runs in 19 innings. Bailey has quietly been even better. Over his last three starts, also a span of 19 innings, he's allowed just one run. Overall, in five June starts, Bailey has a 2.51 ERA. Stroman, who has a superb 1.83 ERA in six daytime starts this season, has made three starts against the Royals since 2016. All three of those finished below the total. More of the same Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. After getting swept 4-0, the Mets are going to be very happy to get home and away from Philadelphia. While I successfully played against them in three of the four games at Philadelphia, this is a great spot for the Mets to get back on track. Jacob de Grom has been in top form for quite some time now. Over his last seven starts, de Grom has a stellar 2.40 ERA. Over that 45 inning span, he's got an impressive 54/6 K/W ratio. In fact, over his last three starts, all of them quality, de Grom has 27 K's with 0 walks. While Soroka got off to an excellent start, he's started to cool off. Last time out, he got hit in the arm and lasted only two innings. Prior to that, however, he'd allowed 16 hits and eight earned runs in two starts, a span of just 11 innings. The last time that de Grom faced the Braves, the Mets won 14-2. The last time that he faced them at NY, the Mets won 3-0. In that one, de Grom allowed just two singles through eight shutout innings, striking out 10. Look for de Grom to get the better of the rookie in this one, en route to an important win for the Mets. 

I'm playing Washington/Miami UNDER the total. Last night's game was a tough loss for 'under' bettors. The score was 1-0 going into the 6th and 4-1 going into the 9th, yet the game still found its way over the number. Don't expect it to happen again as both today's starters are in excellent current form. The Marlins still score the fewest runs in baseball and now they're up against a red hot pitcher in Strasburg. Over his last 11 starts, Strasburg is 9-0 (Nats are 11-0) with a dominant 1.67 ERA. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 6-3-1 his last 10. Alcantara, meanwhile, has an outstanding 1.71 ERA his last five starts. Last time out, he held the Phillies to one run through 7 2/3 innings. Each of Strasburg's last five starts at Miami has produced seven or fewer combined runs. Those games had scores of 5-0, 4-2, 5-2, 2-1 and 7-0. Strasburg allowed a mere two runs in the five games combined, a span of 33 innings. In fact, in four of the games, he allowed 0 runs. Absolutely dominant. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I've successfully backed the Phillies each of the past two days and I'm coming right back with them today. When Pivetta faced the Mets earlier this season, the Phillies won 14-3. While his overall numbers still aren't great, Pivetta is 2-1 with a respectable 3.94 ERA since rejoining the team, after getting sent down to Triple-A. Vargas, who has a 4.65 ERA and 1.516 WHIP on the road, hasn't even lasted five innings in either of his last two starts. When he faced the Phillies earlier, the Mets lost 6-0. With yesterday's win, the Phillies are 80-49 the past 2+ seasons, as favorites of -110 or greater. After their 7-game slide, they've now got momentum back in their corner. I say they keep on rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on Texas/Det UNDER the total. In all of baseball, these teams are tied for last in terms of the number of times (9.8) that they strike out. The Tigers are also tied with the Marlins for last place, in terms or runs scored. They manage just 3.5 per game. Both bullpens are fresh, as both teams had yesterday off. The Rangers closed out their series with Chicago by winning back-to-back games. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 17-5 when they were off two or more consecutive victories. The Tigers, who have only scored three combined runs in their past two games, have seen the UNDER go 13-7-3 when off a loss by four or more runs. Chavez's last two starts against Detroit had scores of 5-3 and 1-0. Zimmerman's two career starts vs. Texas had scores of 3-1 and 5-1. In his last start against the Rangers, Zimmerman allowed just one run through eight complete innings. He gave up only four hits and 0 walks, while striking out 11. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on New York/Toronto OVER the total. Sabathia's last start against the Jays resulted in a 8-7 slugfest. Despite Sabathia lasting only 2 1/3 innings, he managed to serve up three home runs. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. The Jays are swinging the bats well right now. They've scored six or more runs in five straight and seven of their last eight. Ditto for the Yankees, who have now have hit home runs in 26 games, a franchise record. They'll face struggling Aaron Sanchez who is 0-3 with a terrible 13.50 ERA and 2.368 WHIP his last three starts. Over that 12 2/3 inning span, Sanchez has served up five home runs and 20 runs (19 earned) overall. On the season, he's 3-6 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in nine road starts. Not surprisingly, six of those finished above the number. His last two starts finished with scores of 11-6 and 15-2. Each of Sabathia's last two starts have also produced 12 or more combined runs. Look for the OVER to improve to 6-1-1 when the Jays were listed as underdogs of +200 or greater. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Mets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting swept by the Marlins and the Nationals before that, the Phillies desperately need a win. With Eflin, they've got the right guy on the mound to get one. Eflin has a stellar 2.13 ERA and 0.992 WHIP through six home starts. Last time here, Eflin allowed two runs on just five hits, through eight complete innings. He recorded nine K's against only one walk. Yet, the Phillies provided him with no run support in a 2-0 loss. That shouldn't be an issue as Matz has an ugly 6.21 ERA through eight road starts. Last time out, he gave up five runs in five innings. He got taken deep twice in that short span, while walking more (4) than he struck out (2). Speaking of bad outings, the last time that Matz pitched here at Philly, he didn't record a single out, yet managed to allow eight runs, six of them earned. Including that result, the Phillies are 3-0 the last three times that they faced Matz here, winning by a combined score of 28-11. Expect another big win. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cards have taken the first two games of this series and I like their chances of completing the sweep this evening. Mikolas has a stellar 2.88 ERA and 0.887 WHIP through eight home starts. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings. Skaggs also pitched well last time out. However, he's still got a poor 5.27 ERA on the road. While Mikolas averages 6.6 innings per home start, Skaggs averages 5.3 innings per road start. LA relievers have a 4.67 combined ERA on the road while St. Louis relievers have a 3.83 mark at home. With Trout in the lineup, the Angels may often look tempting when listed as underdogs. They haven't fared well in that role though. They're 48-75 as road underdogs the past few seasons, 32-51 (-11.5) as road underdogs in the +100 to +150 range. During the same span, the Cards were 59-42 as home favorites of -150 or less. That includes a 13-3 mark in that role this season. In what may be Pujols' final game ever here, break out those brooms, Cards' fans. 

I'm playing on SF/Arizona UNDER the total. The UNDER is a healthy 71-52-3 in Arizona day games the past few seasons. I expect those stats to improve Sunday. Admittedly, Kelly wasn't great last time out. However, given that he was 3-0 with a dominant 0.81 ERA in his previous three starts, I'm willing to cut him a little slack. On the season, through seven home starts, he's got a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's averaged better than six innings per start here and he's got 40 K's vs. only four walks. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a healthy 5-1-1 in those games. Anderson has a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through three road starts, averaging slightly over six innings per. His last three starts have all been quality. Anderson's lone starts against Arizona finished with eight combined runs. Kelly's lone start against SF finished with seven runs, Kelly allowing none of them. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals spotted the Braves a 3-0 lead yesterday but still rallied for a 4-3 win. I expect them to have the advantage right out of the gate in this one. Since returning from injury, four starts ago, Sanchez has a dominant 1.54 ERA. Over that 4-game stretch, opposing hitters are batting a mere .183 against Sanchez. The first of those four starts came against these same Braves. Sanchez allowed a single hit through six shutout innings. The Nats won that one by a score of 14-4. That was the first time that Sanchez had started against the Braves in several years; his previous start against them saw him win 10-0, striking out 17. Sanchez figures to get decent support once again; Foltynewic is 3-7 with a 5.53 ERA on the season. Despite averaging 5 1/2 innings, he allows an average of 1.5 HR's per start. The Nats have been playing very well of late and have gotten themselves back into contention. Off five straight wins, they can climb to .500 with a win here. Expect them to keep rolling for another day. 

I'm playing on Colorado/LA UNDER the total. Buehler is in awesome current form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 0.41 ERA and 0.45 WHIP. Over that 22 inning stretch, he's recorded 26 K's while issuing only one walk. These starters have a history against each other. Marquez has made three starts at LA since 2018, two of them came against Buehler. Those games had scores of 2-1, 3-1 and 5-2, all staying below the total. The 5-2 game came in the playoffs, one of the head-to-head showdowns with Buehler. In the two reg. season games here, Marquez allowed one run in eight innings, one run in seven innings. Over that 15-inning span, he allowed just four combined hits, striking out 14 while walking two. In that playoff game, you may recall that Buehler took a 1-hitter into the 7th inning. He's seen the UNDER go 2-0-1 in three career starts against the Rockies here, all three games producing seven or fewer runs. Expect another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Reds managed an unlikely sweep of the Astros. However, the Brewers should bring them back down to reality this evening. With a matchup of Roark/Nelson, we're able to get the Crew at a far more reasonable price than we normally would. While its obviously very important, there's a lot more to winning than just starting pitching though. The Brewers are 22-13 at home, 121-82 (+25) here the past 2+ seasons. On the other hand, the Reds are 15-21 on the road and are now 74-123 away from Cincy the past 2+ seasons. The Reds hit .222 on the road, the Brewers hit .265 at home. Admittedly, Nelson's numbers aren't too good. He now has a couple of games under his belt though and a Reds lineup which hits poorly on the road figures to be just what the doctor ordered. While the Reds haven't seen Nelson since 2017, when he tossed a pair of gems (and one dud) against them, the Brewers have already had a look at Roark this season. Roark, who was 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in June and who threw a season-high number of pitches last time out, didn't fare well (3 runs, 4 1/3 innings) when he faced the Brewers earlier this season. His team is 0-2 his last two against the Brewers, Roark allowing three home runs through 10 1/3 innings.  After getting swept at San Diego, the Brewers are coming in angry. They're 4-1 the past five times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also a dominant 47-27 (+24) the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped three of their previous four. Back at home, Milwaukee rights the ship. 

I'm playing on Cleveland/Texas UNDER the total. Minor (6-4, 2.63 ERA) is having an excellent season. He's got a 2.32 ERA his past 10 starts. At home, this season, he's got a 2.18 ERA.  Bieber was sharp last time out, striking out 12 through 7 2/3 innings. He allowed two runs on just four hits. He's been strong during the day, posting a 3.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five daytime appearnces, four starts. Opposing batters hit only .191 in those games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has been profitable for both starters. Minor has seen the UNDER go 11-4 overall, 5-2 at home. Bieber has seen the UNDER go 10-3-1 overall and 5-1 on the road. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Rockies won big yesterday but the Diamondbacks will bounce back this evening. Greinke was absolutely dominant last time out. He only allowed two hits through 7+ shutout innings. In fact, he had a no-hitter into the 6th. He only stopped pitching due to a long rain delay. On the season, he's 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. At home, his ERA dips to 2.48. Keep in mind that he had a 2.55 ERA in 17 starts here last season too. The year before, he was 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA here. In other words, he likes his home cooking. Despite having to pitch at Coors, Gray also tends to fare better in his home park. On the road, he's got a 5.06 ERA this season. Last year, he had a 5.34 ERA on the road. These starters opposed each other, at Colorado, last month. While Greinke was actually better than Gray, the Rockies ended up winning 4-3. However, Gray's last two starts at Arizona have been terrible - the Dbax won 8-2 and 11-8 - Gray allowing 13 hits and seven earned runs in just 5 1/3 combined innings. Dbax roll. 

I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona UNDER the total. This O/U number climbed overnight providing us with some additional value. I feel that the line will prove to be too high. Kelly is in outstanding current form. He's 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.627 WHIP his last three starts. Last time out, he limited the Phillies to three hits through 7 2/3 shutout innings. Overall, Kelly has a 2.35 ERA is six home starts, the UNDER going 4-1-1. Not surprisingly, Senzatela has been better on the road than he has at home. In his last road start, he allowed just one earned run, on only four hits, through six complete innings. Including that results, his last three starts have all fallen below the total. Senzatela has also seen the UNDER go 4-0 his last four against Arizona, allowing four or fewer earned runs in each of those starts, including just 1 and 2 (through 6 and 7 innings) his most recent two starts against. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SF/LA UNDER the total. Maeda's last three starts against SF have all stayed below the total. Those games had final scores of 3-2, 4-2 and 5-0, Maeda allowing 0 earned runs in two of them. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair here. Maeda is 2-3 with a poor 5.67 ERA on the road. However, here at home, he's 5-0 with a dominant 1.69 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .145 against him here. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-0-1 his last four starts here. Going back further finds the UNDER at 13-3-2 his last 18 starts here. Beede, a former first round pick, had a career high seven K's last time out. He'll have the advantage of facing the LA hitters for the first time. His last two road starts have both fallen below the number. Look for the UNDER to improve to 8-2 when the Dodgers were listed as home favorites of -200 or greater. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I won with the Red Sox in Porcello's last start. Porcello came through for me in that one. However, that was a home game against Texas. Now, he'll take on a Twins team which leads the leauge in home runs and which is a dominant 47-23 on the season, 23-12 here at home. On the season, Porcello is 0-3 with an ugly 6.37 ERA in six road starts. Opposing hitters are batting .315 against him, away from Fenway. On the other hand, Berrios is 5-1 with a stellar 2.53 ERA here at Minnesota. Off yesterday's loss, Sano had this to say of the his Minnesota team: ""We can lose one game if we're going to win five, seven games. This is the best team I've seen in my life, and we don't have any pressure about anything. We're really good." Expect the Twins to bounce back.

I'm playing on LA. The price on the Dodgers came down overnight. Given the venue and pitching matchup, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Off a tough loss last night, LA is going to be in angry mood. Ryu has been amazing all season. He's got a 1.36 ERA and 0.802 WHIP through 13 starts overall. At home, he's practically unhittable and he's been unbeatable. Through six home starts, he's 6-0 with a remarkable 1.01 ERA and 0.649 WHIP. He's struck out 45 here while walking a mere two. He averages 7.4 innings per start here, too. On the other hand, Quintana is 2-4 with a 5.83 ERA on the road. While Ryu hasn't walked a batter in either of his last two starts, Quintana walked four (while striking out only three) in his last start alone, a span of just five innings. Even after yesterday's loss, the Dodgers are still a dominant 19-5 when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -200 range. Payback time tonight. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Rockies have been outstanding as home favorites and they're going to be licking their chops at the opportunity to face Margevicius again. They've seen him twice this season, once in April and once in May. Colorado won both games comfortably, winning by a combined score of 18-9. Margevicius gave up 10 earned runs in nine innings. He allowed 15 hits, three of them leaving the yard. On the season Margevicius has an ERA above five. That includes an ugly 8.43 ERA (1.781 WHIP) his last three starts. As Margevicius averages less than five innings per start, note that San Diego relievers have really struggled on the road all season. Lambert, who hails from Southern Cal (San Dimas) will be fired up to face the Padres. Making pitching in the bigs look easy, Lambert comes in full of confidence. The former 2nd round pick has made two starts, both against the Cubs, and he's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. In 12 innings, he's recorded 12 K's. Opposing batters are hitting .167 against him. Rockies roll. 

I'm playing on Texas/Cincinnati OVER the total. While the Reds have been involved in a lot of 'unders' this month, I expect the bats to come alive Sunday afternoon. Jurado has seen both his road starts finish above the total. He's allowed at least a home run in each of his past three games, posting a mediocre 4.00 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in those games. He's backed by a Texas bullpen which entered the weekend with a 5.09 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. Gray, 0-4 in this season's daytime starts, has faced the Rangers plenty of times from his days in the AL. Each of his last four starts against them produced a minimum of nine runs. The most recent (2017) had a score of 6-5. Last season, Gray pitched an inning of relief against the Rangers. That didn't go well, as he gave up five hits and two runs. The 'over' has been money in Ranger day games this season. Look for this one to hit double-digits.

I'm playing on MIAMI. After getting embarrassed 11-0 yesterday, the Marlins are going to be in an angry mood today. With an expected advantage on the mound, I expect them to get some payback. Lopez is in outstanding current form. In his last three starts, Lopez has recorded 19 K's in 18 innings, while allowing just two earned runs. That's a 1.00 ERA. He's got a 0.778 WHIP to go along with that. In six home starts this season. Lopez has a dominant 1.78 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Agrazal will be making his major league debut. Look for Lopez to outpitch and outlast the rookie, the Marlins moving to 29-19 their last 48 as home favorites of -150 or less. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Washington UNDER the total. We're working with a much higher O/U line than one would have been for yesterday's Dbax/Nats game. I feel that the big number is generously high and providing us with plenty of value. Strasburg was giving up a few too many home runs early in the season but has only given up two his last eight starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. He didnt walk a batter and once again, no home runs allowed. The last time that he faced Arizona, Strasburgh allowed one run through 6 2/3 innings, recording nine K's against just five hits and one walk. The final score was 2-1. Clarke has faced some tough opponents lately as the Dodgers, Rockies and Phillies all average more runs than do the Nationals. His last start was in the rain but he was respectable (2 earned runs in 5 innings) in his start, prior to that. Over the past 2+ seasons, excluding pushes, the UNDER is 71-49 in Arizona day games and 84-57 in Washington day games. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on SF/Milwaukee UNDER the total. The Brewers have seen the UNDER go 20-13 on the road this season. I expect those stats to improve this evening. Davies has seen the UNDER go a lucrative 11-2 on the season including a 6-1 UNDER mark on the road. He's got a stellar 2.41 ERA overall and that dips down to 1.88 when he's away from Milwaukee. In seven road games, a span of 43 innings, Davies has only permitted two home runs. While Pomeranz's stats aren't nearly as good, he's coming off a great game. He held the Dodgers to three hits and 0 runs, striking out seven. The final score was 2-1. Pomeranz is backed by a Giant bullpen which has a respectable 3.57 ERA and 1.154 WHIP (81.7% save percentage) here at home. Davies has made one start at SF. That 2017 contest finished with a final score of 2-0. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 14-5 when the Brewers faced a southpaw starter. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Mets had Wednesday off. The Cards played a Wednesday evening game, at Miami. Jacob de Grom comes off a gem. He had 10 K's, against just one walk, while allowing two runs through six complete innings. He's got a 2.72 ERA his last eight starts. Flaherty got roughed up last time out. In six road starts, he's got an ugly 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. While opposing batters are hitting only .188 against him at St. Louis, they hit .291 against him on the road. Last time out, Flaherty allowed four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. He walked three batters and didn't record a single strikeout. The Mets are 3-0 with de Grom on the mound against the Cards the past 2+ seasons. He's made three career home starts against St. Louis. The Mets were a perfect 3-0 winning by scores of 6-2, 7-3 and 5-0, a combined 18-5. More of the same Thursday.

I'm playing on BOSTON. After dropping the first two games of this series, the Sox are going to be in an angry mood this afternoon. Now 115-60 their last 175 as home favorites of -110 or greater, I expect them to bounce back with an important victory. Porcello wasn't great last time out but he wasn't terrible either. He allowed four runs through six complete innings. He's got a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.283 WHIP at home and he's going to be happy to see Texas. Porcello allowed just one run, on only three hit, last time he was the Rangers. He had eight K's against one walk in that game, Boston winning 5-1. Over his last five starts against Texas, he's allowed just 11 combined earned runs in 34 combined innings. He went at least six complete innnings in all five starts. A closer look reveals that Porcello's teams won all five of those games. Each win came by multiple runs, a total score of 41-17. While Lynn has pitched decently against Boston, his teams have lost three of his last four against the Sox. Boston bounces back big.

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Cleveland OVER the total. The Reds have been on an 'under' streak. In fact, all seven of their June games have fallen below the total. While that streak has helped to contribute to a nice low O/U number, we can expect it to come to an end today. Over his last three starts, Castillo has walked 11 batters in 14 innings. All those free passes will catch up with him; he's got an ugly 1.714 WHIP in those games. Speaking of 'ugly,' Bauer is 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA in seven home starts. Not surprisingly, five of those finished above the number. He served up three home runs, while also issuing three walks, last time out. After a slow start at the plate, the Indians are starting to hit better, they've scored 37 runs their last six games, 14 over their last two. On what should be a beautiful evening at Progressive Field, expect both teams to have success at the plate in this one, leading to the final combined score finishing above the low number. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. These same two starters recently opposed each other at Wrigley. Marquez had a rough outing. Darvish was better but not great either. The Cubs won 9-8. With today's rematch being played at Colorado, I expect Marquez and co. to get some payback. Prior to last week, Darvish's teams were 0-3 in his three previous starts vs. Colorado. In four career starts vs. the Rockies, he allowed a combined 19 runs (17 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. His lone start at Coors saw him allow five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. While the Cubs are 13-16 on the road, the Rockies are 18-12 at home. That includes a 10-2 record as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Catching the Cubs off last night's ESPN game, look for Marquez and the Rockies to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on Miami/St. Louis UNDER the total. Back in the starting rotation, Wacha is going to be highly motivated to stay there. He had an uptick in velocity - and a better changeup - last time out, shutting out the Reds for 2+ innings in relief. Wacha, who has a respectable 3.67 ERA on the road, should be happy to face the Marlins. Not only is Miami the worst offense in the league, but Wacha has never allowed more than three earned runs in any start vs. the Marlins. Alcantara faces the Cards for the first time. That should have some extra meaning to him, as he came up through the Cardinal system. You may recall that he came over to Miami in the Ozuna deal. Alcantara, who has a 2.50 ERA his last three starts, has seen the UNDER go 8-4 on the season. In fact, over his last two starts, a span of 13 innings, he's only allowed one earned run. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on KC. These teams have splite the first two games of the series. The Royals won 6-4 on Friday. The Sox took yesterday's game by a 2-0 score. I really like the Royals to grab Sunday's rubber game. Sparkman has a stellar 2.31 ERA (1.11 WHIP) in seven home appearances, two starts. Last time out, he left the game with a 2-0 lead over the Red Sox. The bullpen coughed up the lead though. Still, Sparkman held Boston to just three hits through 5 1/3 innings. Lopez has an ugly 6.62 ERA to go along with a 1.67 WHIP. On the road, he's 0-4 with an even worse 8.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Oppsosing hitters are batting .340 against him in his five road starts. The Royals will be seeing him for the second time in a little over a week, too. They pounded out 12 hits against him, scoring five runs, at Chicago, on May 29. The Royals also roughed up Lopez here at KC, back in late March. Expect them to give Sparkman plenty of support, closing out the series with a big win for the home fans. 

I'm playing on Washington/SD UNDER the total. Though it ended at 5-4, last night's game was low-scoring much of the way. (The score was 1-0 going into the bottom of the 6th.) I expect another well-pitched affair this evening. Scherzer is in outstanding current form. Last time out, he allowed just three hits while recording 15 K's. Though he threw a lot of pitches in that game, he's working on an extra day's rest. He's got a 0.90 ERA his last three starts. Over his past five starts against the Padres, averaging better than seven innings per start, Scherzer has allowed a mere six earned runs, Through that dominant 35 2/3 innings, he had 54 K's, hitting double-digits in all five games. Lauer has been sharp here at PetCo all season. He's got a 2.54 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in seven starts here, the UNDER going 5-2. Like Scherzer, he's in excellent form. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.47 ERA and 0.709 WHIP. While the Padres have been more competitive this season, they still rank #26 in the league in terms of runs scored. They dont hit for a high average and they strike out a lot. In other words, Scherzer's in for another big night. Expect Lauer to go toe-to-toe with him, the final combined score staying beneath the number. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the Phillies yesterday and I'm coming back with them this afternoon. While the Phillies are a solid 14-7 (+6.5) in day games, the Reds are a terrible 7-20 (-14). I was extremely impressed with Pivetta in his last start. He held the Dodgers to three hits through six shutout innings, striking out nine without walking a single batter. Roark, on the other hand, allowed two home runs in his last start. The Phillies are very familiar with Roark. The last time that they faced him they banged out 10 hits, while scoring five runs, in 4 2/3 innings. He's 0-4 his last six starts vs. the Phillies. In those six starts, he allowed 21 earned runs in 29 innings. Phillies roll. 

I'm playing on Oakland/LA UNDER the total. Fiers has been clicking for some time now. He's got a stellar 2.82 ERA his last seven starts. Last time out, he held the Astros to only two runs, on just four hits, through 6 2/3 innings. Any problems that he's had have come during the day. When pitching under the lights, he's got a solid 0.94 WHIP, opposing hitters batting a mere .187. Skaggs has an excellent 2.28 ERA in four home starts. He hasn't allowed a home run here all season. When Fiers saw the Angels earlier this season, he limited them to one hit through six shutout innings. The A's won 4-0. Five of his last six starts vs. the Angels have produced eight or fewer combined runs. Skaggs' lone 2019 start against Oakland had a final score of 2-1. Three of his last four (and 7 of his L9) against the A's have produced seven or fewer combined runs. Expect a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the generous number. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Washington UNDER the total. Both starters have pretty poor numbers for the season. Thats led to a generously high O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. A closer look reveals that both starters were actually very sharp last time out. Each will come in confident. Sanchez, who once tossed a no-hitter, allowed just one hit through six dominant shutout innings, at Atlanta, last time out. He recorded seven K's and walked just one batter. Covey must feel like a big weight has been lifted off his shoulders. He'd been on an 0-10 streak before beating the Indians last time out. He held Cleveland to one run through six complete innings. Sanchez's last start vs. the White Sox (2017) had an O/U line of 10.5 but the final score was just 3-2. Both starters off a strong outing, look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers are a commanding 82-40 (+26) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites of -110 or greater. I expect them to improve on those stats Tuesday. Anderson is 2-0 and has a solid 2.78 ERA in five starts since moving into the rotation. In five home appearances, two starts, he's got a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. On the other hand, Lopez has a terrible 8.26 ERA (1.62 WHIP) on the road. Opposing batters are hitting .303 against him away from Miami. Anderson has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of seven career starts vs. Miami. Conversely, Lopez got rocked (5 earned runs) in his lone start vs. Milwaukee. When also factoring in that the Brewers have a better bullpen and much better hitting and this line could easily be higher. Brewers roll. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/SD UNDER the total. Both these starters are in excellent current form and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. Nola allowed one run through seven complete innings last time out. That gives him a 2.50 ERA his last seven starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in all seven of those starts. Note that Nola's last three starts against SD all fell below the total. They had scores of 5-1, 2-1 and 4-3. Last time he faced the Padres, Nola tossed six shutout innings, giving up just four hits. Lauer has also been pitching very well of late. He's got a 1.50 ERA his last three starts. He allowed just one earned runs in each of those three games, while not issuing a walk in any of them. Not surprisingly, all three of those games also stayed below the total. Look for this one to do the same.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cubs and Angels play a makeup game from 4/14 on Monday afternoon and the matchup clearly favors Chicago. While the Cubs played an early game at St. Louis yesterday, the Angels started two hours later, way out on the West Coast, at Seattle. Bedrosian will serve as the opener for the Angels but Cahill will be the primary pitcher. Cahill has been terrible of late. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. That wrapped up a dismal May which saw him post an ugly 8.22 ERA. For the season, he's 2-5 with a 6.92 ERA overall. That includes an 0-3 mark with a brutal 9.82 ERA in three daytime starts. Lester, on the other hand, has a stellar 2.63 ERA (1.00 WHIP) in five daytime starts. Lester's teams are 7-4 his last 11 starts against the Angels, most recently a 6-1 win in 2016. Expect the Cubs to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis to go UNDER the total. Wainwright recorded 10 K's (0 walks) in his last start, the first time that he's done so in more than five years. He'll be happy that this is an early start. He's got a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the day compared to a 5.53 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at night. Wainwright should also be pleased to be pitching at home. He's got a 6.61 ERA in six road starts but a 3.00 ERA in five home starts. Like Wainwright, Hamels will be happy to be pitching at St. Louis. Over his career at Busch Stadium, Hamels has a stellar 2.20 ERA. His last five starts here have all fallen below the total. Those games had scores of 1-0, 4-1, 4-1, 3-2 and 2-0. In fact, none of Hamels' last 11 starts against St. Louis have produced more than nine combined runs. This one won't either. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. This is the final game of a disappointing homestand for the Braves. After this, they get Monday off before playing at Pittsburgh Tuesday. That said, they're going to be highly motivated to win this one. With Teheran on the mound, their chances of doing so are excellent. Teheran made five starts in May. Through 27 2/3 innings, he posted a dominant 0.98 ERA, giving up just 12 hits and three earned runs. Opposing batters hit just .128 against him. Its also worth noting that Teheran has a 2.45 ERA (0.91 WHIP) in his day starts this season. While Boyd has pitched well, he doesn't get much support from his team. The Tigers score the fewest runs in the American League, second fewest in all of baseball. They also hit less HR's than any team except for Miami. Entering the weekend, the Detroit bullpen had a combined ERA of 5.17, a WHIP of 1.449. The combination of a bad offense and a bad bullpen isn't a good one. Braves roll. 

I'm playing on Washington/Cincinnati UNDER the total. Its true that this is a hitter's park. However, that gets factored into the line. Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, there have still been more unders than overs here this season. I expect the total to prove too high again on Saturday afternoon. Roark is going to be fired up for this one, as its his first start against his former team. He's been pitching well, too. Last time out, Roark struck out nine Cubs through five shutout innings. Its also worth noting that Roark has been at his best when pitching during the day. In four daytime starts, he's got a 2.14 ERA. On the other side, in seven appearances, Fedde has a 2.18 ERA. In two starts, he's got an outstanding 0.90 ERA. Both starters in fine form, look for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. These same two starters opposed each other a couple of weeks ago, at KC. The Rangers won that one in blowout fashion, a 16-1 thrashing. Playing at home, I expect the same matchup to lead to another victory. Lynn altered his pitch selection in late April and has been solid ever since. He's got a 3.38 ERA his last six starts and a 2.70 ERA his last three starts. He didn't give up a home run in any of those three starts, the first of which was the 16-1 win. During that span of 20 innings, he had an impressive 26 K's against just five walks. Bailey's got a horrible 9.58 ERA and 2.13 WHIP his last three starts. On the season, he's got a 6.16 ERA on the road. The Royals have been terrible on the road while the Rangers have been great at home. Texas rolls. 

I'm playing on Houston/Oakland UNDER the total. Both these starters are in outstanding form. Peacock recently switched to a full-windup. Since doing so, he's got an incredible 0.39 ERA in four games, striking out more than 12 per nine innings. For the season, Peacock has a 1.38 ERA when pitching underneath the lights. Fiers, meanwhile, has a 2.84 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.80 ERA (0.60 WHIP!) his last three. On the season, he's 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in five home starts. The Oakland bullpen has been stingy at home while Houston relievers have been dominant on the road. The Astros have seen the UNDER go 16-9 in 25 road games. That includes a 5-1 UNDER mark when on the road and the line ranged from -125 to +1.25. The UNDER is also 14-6 when the A's played a home game with an O/U line of either 8 or 8.5. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Milwaukee/Pittsburgh OVER the total. I didn't like what I saw from either of these starters last time out. Musgrove gave up 10 hits and six earned runs in just five innings. He's 1-3 with an ugly 6.10 ERA in four home starts. Not surprisingly, three of those scores finished above the total. Musgrove at least figures to get some run support as the Pirates are swinging the bats well. After scoring seven yesterday, they've now scored six or more runs in four of their past five games. Anderson has lasted just four innings in each of his past two starts and has gone five or less innings in three straight. Note that Anderson has also gone 5 1/3 or fewer innings each of his past three starts against Pittsburgh. Despite those short outings, he's given up six home runs over those three games, two in each. With Anderson unlikely to go the distance, it means we should see a fair amount of a Milwaukee bullpen which has a combined 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road. The Pirate bullpen has been even worse. Pittsburgh relievers have a combined 5.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP here at home. Musgrove has made two starts against Milwaukee. Each produced 13 combined runs. The OVER is 15-8-1 here on the season, 7-2-1 when the O/U line was 8 or 8.5. Expect another high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. These teams have split the first two games of the series. The O's should have a significant edge for this evening's all-southpaw finale. Carpenter, who will be pitching on short rest, is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.643 WHIP through three starts. Means, on the other hand, has a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. When starting at home, he's 3-1 with a dominant 1.71 ERA and a 0.952 WHIP. While they stumbled in a pick'em role yesterday, the O's have actually been pretty good as home favorites. With an edge on the mound, expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Gioloti takes the mound for the home team and that should make Chicago fans happy. Why wouldn't it? The Sox are 8-1 when he's got the ball. Over his last six starts, Gioloti has a superb 1.25 ERA. Over that span, he's struck out 41 in 36 innings and opposing hitters are batting only .169 against him. Over his last three starts, Gioloti's ERA dips to 0.86. The road hasn't been particularly kind for Keller. He's 1-3 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP away from KC. Even worse, he's 1-4 with an ugly 5.97 ERA (1.64 WHIP) when pitching underneath the lights. Chicago has the edge in the bullpen department too, particularly when it comes to converting saves. The Sox are 5-1 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals rallied to take yesterday's game. They scored four runs in the bottom of the eighth to win 6-3. Gyorko who hit a pinch-hit 3-run HR had this to say: "That's a big win for us. We've been struggling, this has been a tough month. Hopefully, we can look later this month and going into next month and this is a win that got us going." At the least, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Flaherty is off b2b quality starts, both of them coming on the road, one against these same Braves. Now, he returns home where he's got a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.931 WHIP through five starts. Teheran has pitched well recently. However, he hasn't fared too well on the road. In seven road starts, he's got a 4.46 ERA. The St. Louis bullpen has been better than the Atlanta bullpen this season and that was the case yesterday. The Cards head for Philadelphia after this. Momentum in their corner, expect them to close out the homestand with an important victory. 

I'm playing on Miami/Washington UNDER the total. Hitters had their way in yesterday's game. This afternoon, I expect the pitching to grab center stage. Alcantara tossed a complete-game 2-hit shutout last time out. He needed only 89 pitches to do it, too. In three daytime starts, he's 2-0 with a dominant 0.41 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. While opposing hitters are batting .323 against him at night, they're hitting only .141 against him during the day. Corbin has also thrived when pitching during the daytime. He's got a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in three daytime starts. Overall, in five home starts, he's got a 2.94 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .192 against him here. Yesterday's game notwithstanding, these teams are not scoring a lot of runs. Washington entered yesterday ranked 20th in terms of runs scored per game. Miami was dead last. The UNDER is 12-1 in Miami's day games on the season. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on LA. The Angels should have a major edge in the starting pitching department in this one. Canning has a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two home starts. Opposing hitters are batting just .171 against him here. He's got 11 K's vs. just two walks here. Last time out, he went seven shutout innings, allowing only three hits. Smyly, on the other hand, is 0-3 with an ugly 6.51 ERA and 1.73 WHIP on the season. In two road appearances (1 start) he's got an awful 9.00 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. In his last two stats, Smyly has walked eight, while striking out seven, in just 8 2/3 innings. Walking more than one strikes out is never a good sign. Remember that Smyly just had two years of recovery from Tommy John surgery. Smyly won't be happy to see the Angels; his teams are 0-4 his last four against LA, losing by a combined score of 25-10. When Smyly faced LA earlier this season, Trout hit a grand slam against him. LA won 5-1. Expect another win for the Angels here. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series. However, I fully expect the Tigers to avoid the sweep this afternoon. Boyd has a solid 3.47 ERA to go along with a stellar 0.991 WHIP in six home starts. He's averaged more than six innings per start here, too. On the other hand, Richards is 0-3 on the road, averaging five innings per start. He's got a 5.40 ERA and a 1.533 WHIP in those games. While Boyd has a 3.13 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his daytime starts, Richards is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his. Even with yesterday's win, the Fish are still an ugly 29-54 the past 2+ seasons, against southpaw starters, 4-7 this season. Look for a desperate Detroit team to bounce back, improving to 21-12 (+4) its past 33, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Jays had a favorable matchup yesterday and they took advantage of it. While I backed them in that game, this is a much tougher matchup. Porcello has rounded into form. He's 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA his last six starts. Last time out, he held Houston to two runs through seven complete innings. Sanchez hasn't fared nearly as well of late. He left his last start early, due to a blister on his middle finger. He'd already given up a couple of runs though. In his previous start, he gave up five runs, on nine hits. He's got a 5.62 ERA his last three. Thats been less than a week for the blister to heal and the Red Sox are a tough team. The Jays are 1-5 the last six times that Sanchez started against them, 0-3 the last three. While the Jays' bats erupted yesterday, the Red Sox are still the much better hitting team. Boston scores the 6th most runs per game in basball. Toronto ranks #26. In fact, the Jays rank near the bottom of the league in nearly all offensive categories. Look for the Sox to bounce back, improving to 20-11 (+6.1) the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 9 or more runs in their previous game. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. While I won with the Padres in yesterday's opener, I'm coming right back with the Diamondbacks this evening. Greinke is having a great season and is also in outstanding current form. The former Cy Young Award winner has a 1.74 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his last three starts. His team is 4-0 his last four against the Padres, Greinke delivering a quality start in each of those. While Greinke has a 0.726 WHIP his last three, Strahm has a 1.385 WHIP his last three. Not terrible but still nearly twice as many baserunners allowed as Greinke. Strahm has pitched better on the road too, as he has a 4.24 ERA here at Petco. His lone home start against Arizona resulted in a 10-3 loss, Strahm giving up five earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Dbax have been excellent as small road underdogs. Look for them to bounce back, improving to 23-14 (+8.5) the past 2+ seasons, when off three or more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. These same two starters already faced each other this season. Paddack and the Padres finished on top. I expect them to do so again this evening. Paddack has a 1.99 ERA on the season. At home, his ERA dips to 1.40. He's got a 0.55 WHIP here! Opposing hitters are batting a mere .146 against him. That happens to be the best mark in the majors. Here at Petco, opposing batters hit just .118 against Paddack. While Weaver has admittedly pitched well on the road, the Arizona bullpen has not. Diamondback relievers have a combined 4.95 ERA and 1.512 WHIP away from Chase Field. The Padres badly need to stop the bleeding. They're 24-15 (+14.4) after scoring four or fewer runs in five or more consecutive games. They've also won four of their last five vs. Arizona. A win here gets them back to .500 on the season. Expect them to get it!

I'm playing on LA/Cincy OVER the total. I won with the 'under' when these teams faced each other Friday. The Dodgers won 6-0. Yesterday's game was also low-scoring; the Reds returned the favor with a 4-0 shutout of their own. On Sunday, I expect both teams' bats to finally show up. Ryu has been downright dominant at home. However, he's more hittable on the road and thats been the case his entire career. The Reds got eight hits, two of them leaving the yard, in five innings the last time that they faced Ryu. In fact, he's gone five innings or less in each of his last three starts against the Reds, giving up five home runs in 14 innings. Those three games produced 32 combined runs, an average of nearly 11 per game. Roark looked pretty hittable last time out, giving up eight hits (3 runs) in five innings. While his 3.50 ERA looks pretty good, Roark's 1.47 WHIP reveals that he's giving up a high number of baserunners. He had a 4.34 ERA and a 4.67 ERA the past two seasons and I suspect this season's number will climb after today's game. Expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Washington UNDER the total. Yesterday's Scherzer/Hamels matchup wasn't quite the pitcher's duel which some might have imagined. However, I expect fans of good pitching to be in for a treat with today's Lester/Strasburgh showdown. Lester has a 0.00 ERA in two May starts and a 0.36 ERA since coming off the DL. During that span, he's got a 25/2 K/W ratio. Strasburg allowed two runs in six innings at LA in his last start. His last home start saw him allow one run through seven complete innings. His last three starts have all finished with six or fewer combined runs. Look for runs to be at a premium, the final combined scoring again staying below the total. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies are a dominant 31-12 (+10.4) the past 43 times that they were listed as home favorites of -150 or greater. With a significant advantage on the mound, they'll improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. These same two starters opposed each other on 4/20, at Colorado. Nola and the Phillies won 8-5. In fact, the Phillies are 3-0 all-time in Nola's starts against the Rockies. He's allowed three earned runs or less in all three starts, a total of just six in 19 1/3 innings. Over that span, Nola had 26 K's vs. two walks. Nola has a 3.07 ERA his last three starts, the Phillies winning all three. Remember, Nola was 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA here last season, too. On the other hand, Senzatela has a 7.04 ERA his last three. With Nola getting the better of Senzatela, expect the Phillies to improve to 10-4 in day games. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Twins won big last night but I'm anticipating a much closer game this evening, the Mariners bouncing back with a big effort. Gonzales' last two starts came at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. While he pitched very well in New York, he stumbled at Boston. Those are some tough venues though. Here at Safeco, he's 3-2 with a very solid 2.93 ERA. One of those losses was a 3-2 defeat against Cole and the Astros. In other words, one would be 4-1 in Gonzales' five home starts, if they'd been getting an extra +1.5 runs. While the Twins haven't seen Gonzales, the M's are plenty familiar with Perez. The last time that Perez started against them, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings, giving up five runs (2 earned) while walking five batters. Seattle won 12-6. Prior to yesterday, the Twins were off three straight 1-run games and b2b 1-run wins. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' for the home team in this one. 

I'm playing Cincinnati/LA UNDER the total. The Dodgers have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 this season, when playing a game with an O/U line of either 9 or 9.5. I expect those stats to improve this evening. Hill has been faring much better against left-handed hitters than he has against right-handed ones. For this reason, the Dodgers pushed this start back, in order for him to face the Reds (who have a lot of left-handed bats in their lineup) instead of the Padres. He hasn't pitched here at Cincy for a long time but the last time that he did, he allowed just one hit through six shutout innings. Desclafini has a solid 3.27 ERA and 1.091 WHIP at home. His last four starts against the Dodgers have all produced nine or fewer combined runs. In fact, three of those finished with less than five runs. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 when the Reds were listed as home underdogs. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/San Diego UNDER the total. Entering Wednesday's action, these teams ranked 25th and 26th in the majors, in terms of runs scored. They don't help themselves with any free ones either. The Padres are dead last in terms of walks per game, the Pirates are 25th. The Pirates are also 28th in home runs. That said, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. Williams goes for the Pirates and he's coming off a stellar outing vs. St. Louis. He limited the Cards to one run through seven complete innings. Williams is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in five road starts and he'll have some extra motivation for this one. Thats because he's from San Diego. Lauer has had some trouble on the road and he got roughed up at Colorado last time out. He'll be happy to be back at Petco, as he's been much better here at home; he's got a respectable 3.43 ERA here. Look for runs to be at a premium. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While the Mets took yesterday's game, the Nationals will have the advantage in this one. Corbin is off a gem; he limited the Dodgers to just three hits through seven shutout innings. He's got a 3.20 ERA on the season, compiling 58 K's in 50 2/3 innings. Corbin has faced the Mets twice already this season; both starts were quality. Font, on the other hand, has made just one start this season and he only went four innings. The Mets are just 36-51 (-15) against southpaws the past 2+ seasons. During that span, they're also a dismal 31-63 (-18) when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. Lay the wood and expect a big win for the home team.

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks have absolutely dominanted the Pirates. They've beaten them in eight straight meetings, going 12-1 the past 13. With an edge in the starting pitching department, they'll continue that domination on Monday. With six strikeouts in this game, Ray will become the second fasted southpaw, in terms of games played, to reach 800 career strikeouts. Considering he recorded 11 of them last game, I like his chances. For the season, Ray has 55 K's in 43 innings to go along with a solid 3.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. On the other hand, Kingham, who is normally a reliever, has a 5.94 ERA. That rises to 6.75 at night. Dbax roll. 

I'm playing on SF. Off three straight losses, expect the Giants to get back on track this afternoon. While it seems like he's been around forever, we forget that Bumgarner is still just 29. He's off b2b quality starts, compiling a 16/3 K/W ratio in those games. He's also got a 2.57 ERA in his daytime starts this season. In his last home start against the Reds, Bumgarner allowed one earned run through eight complete innings, striking out nine without walking a batter. The Giants hit Mahle hard the only time that they saw him. That was a game here almost exactly one year ago. Mahle lasted just 3 1/3 innings and gave up four earned runs on seven hits. The Reds have really struggled in day games. Expect those struggles to continue here.

I'm playing on NY/Miami UNDER the total. These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday, the Mets scoring 11 of them. However, I don't expect even half as many today. deGrom is in dominant form. He's got a 1.29 ERA his last two starts, opposing batters hitting .146. Those two starts finished with scores of 4-0 and 1-0, as deGrom got no run support. Lack of run support is likely to be an issue again as Alcantara always seems to pitch well against the Mets; he's got a 1.89 ERA against them. His last start against them was a 1-0 pitcher's duel against Syndergaard. While walks have indeed been an issue, Alcantara still has a respectable 3.86 ERA on the road. Of course, lack for run support is always a concern for Alcantara, even when not facing the reigning Cy Young winner; the Marlins score the fewest runs (2.8 per game) in baseball. Yesterday notwithstanding, the 'under' has been money when the Marlins have played on the road. Expect that to be the case here. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/KC UNDER the total. Bailey is off a quality start. He allowed two runs through six complete innings. Ditto for Arrieta. He also allowed two runs through six complete innings, in his last start. He's got a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the road this season. The last time that Arrieta pitched at KC was way back in 2011. He allowed just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete in that one, a 3-2 final. Bailey has been excellent the last two times that he faced the Phillies. In those two games, he allowed just two combined earned runs through 14 innings. In fact, he's allowed one earned run or less in four of his last five starts against Philadelphia. The UNDER is 23-17-5 the last 45 times that the Phillies played an IL game. During that span, KC has seen the UNDER go 23-15-2 in IL action. The UNDER is also 43-28, excluding pushes, the last 2+ seasons, when the Phillies were favored in the -125 to -175 range. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on Texas/Houston UNDER the total. Minor is in outstanding current form. In fact, he's got a superb 1.43 ERA his past six starts. One of those six starts came against these same Astros. In that one, Minor tossed seven shutout innings, winning 4-0. Last time out, he allowed 0 earned runs through eight shutout innings. That one finished with a score of 1-0. Minor's last four starts against the Astros have all been quality. All four finished with nine or fewer combined runs, three finished with seven or less. Meanwhile, Miley is 3-0 with a stellar 2.08 ERA at home this season. Last time out, he allowed two runs through six complete innings, at LA. In his most recent home start, he allowed one run through six innings. Expect a well-pitched affair, the UNDER improving to 7-3 when the Astros faced a southpaw starter. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I expect the Jays to win this one outright, I also feel that the extra +1.5 runs could well come in handy. The Jays, who have yet to score a run in the series, have not given Thornton much run support and a 1-run game wouldn't surprise. (Each of Thornton's last three starts - and five of seven overall - have been decided by a single run.) For his part, however, Thornton is coming off an absolute gem. In fact, he only allowed one hit through seven shutout innings. Gibson went just five innings in taking a loss last time out. In three career starts at Toronto, he's got an ugly 7.56 ERA. He was taken deep at least once in all three of those. The Jays are 18-11 (+7.3) vs the money-line, the past 2+ seasons, after scoring two runs or less in b2b games. That includes an 8-2 mark after scoring one or less in b2b games. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Oakland UNDER the total. The Reds are off a high-scoring series against San Francisco. All four games produced double-digits in runs. Monday's finale finished at 12-4 while the opener was a wild 12-11 affair. I expect considerably fewer runs for tonight's opener at Oakland though. I successfully played against the Reds the last time that Mahle pitched. He was great, however. (Thankfully, Syndergaard was even better and the Mets won 1-0.) Mahle allowed one run on four hits in that game, striking out seven without issuing a walk. Fiers has also been making considerable progress. He held Boston to three runs last time out, after limiting Toronto to two runs through seven innings, in his previous start. It should be noted that Fiers has allowed 0 runs in each of his past three starts against the Reds. Five of his eight starts against them have produced six or fewer combined runs. The A's have seen the UNDER go 7-3 at home when the line was +100 to -150. The Reds, meanwhile, have seen the UNDER go 10-4 as road underdogs. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Brewers may have won yesterday but I exepect Washington to bounce right back this evening. Strasburg is in excellent current form. Over his last three starts, he's got a superb 1.25 ERA and 0.784 WHIP. He's got 29 K's in those three games, opposing batters hitting a mere .162. On the other hand, Hauser has made one start and he's got an awful 11.25 ERA and 2.50 WHIP to show for it. In four innings, he allowed five runs on nine hits, two of those leaving the yard. While they may not refer to Hauser as an opener, he's not going to be around too long. Freddy Peralta will (very likely) follow and he's got an ugly 8.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. With the Nats at 46-26 (+11.5) their last 72, after two or more consecutive losses, expect Strasburg and co. to finish on top.

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While the Twins took yesterday's contest, I fully expect the Yankees to bounce back and grab this afternoon's rubber game. Pineda has a poor 6.21 ERA through six starts and he's getting worse instead of better. Over his last three starts, his ERA balloons to 9.64, his WHIP climbing to 2.00. Thats 15 earned runs in 14 innings! Last time out, he gave up nine hits in five innings, two of those leaving the yard. German, on the other hand, has been excellent. He's 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. At home, his ERA dips to a stellar 2.08. The Yanks are 34-16 (+12.2) the past 50 times that they were off a loss by four or more runs. During that span, they're 95-56 off a loss overall. They're also 31-12 (+15.6) at home when the line ranged from +100 to -150. Given the current form of the starters, I feel the line could easily be higher. Yankees roll. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Oakland UNDER the total. Yesterday's game was high-scoring, thanks to the A's erupting for 14 runs. Don't expect a repeat performance. The A's still only hit .238 as a team. The Pirates are even worse, batting .232 collectively. Both starters are in fine form and each will have the advantage of starting against today's opponent for the first time. Bassitt has a superb 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through two starts. On the road, his WHIP dips down to 0.479. Williams has been more than solid; he's got a 3.38 ERA and 1.045 WHIP. At home, that WHIP dips to 0.923. The UNDER is 12-7 when the Pirates faced a right-handed starter. Look for those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on Boston/Chicago UNDER the total. While he may be 0-5, a return to his former home should be just what the doctor ordered for Sale. In fact, while he got stuck with a loss for his efforts, Sale was sharp last time out. He held the Rays to four hits and two runs through seven complete innings. He's still striking out more than a batter an inning. Sale may not get much for run support again though. (The Sox scored only two runs in Sale's last start and have scored just six in his last three starts.) Lopez goes for the Sox and he's been excellent of late. Over his last three starts, he's got a stellar 1.50 ERA. Last time out, he recorded a dominant 14 K's through six shutout innings. Lopez pitched well in his lone career start vs. Boston. He allowed two runs through 6 1/3 innings, winning 5-2. Sale's last start against the White Sox had a final score of 1-0. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Sunday saw the Braves snap a 3-game losing streak and the Padres snap a 5-game winning streak. San Diego lost a close one at Washington while Atlanta rallied to win a close one against Colorado. I won with the the Braves in that one and I expect them to carry their positive momentum into the opener of this series. Soroka, a former 1st round pick, has a superb 1.69 ERA through his first two starts, striking out 13 in 10 2/3 innings. Margevicius, who normally has good control, walked five batters in five innings, in his last start. Thats never a good sign. The Padres entered the weekend hitting .219 vs. right-handers while the Braves entered the weekend hitting .284 vs. southpaws. The Braves are a dominant 10-1 their last 11 as a host of the Padres. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Its true that Syndergaard has gotten off to a tough start. Thats kept this line a lot lower than it would have been normally and I believe thats offering excellent value. Keep in mind that Syndergaard's still got 34 K's in 29 innings though, showing that he is still capable of dominating hitters. He's also got a respectable 1.28 WHIP. In fact, in two home starts, he's got a dominant 0.615 WHIP. A home date against the Brewers figures to be just what the doctor ordered. In three previous home starts vs. Milwaukee, Syndergaard has allowed a single earned run (in all 3 games combined!) through 18+ innings, striking out 27. Not surprisingly, the Mets won all three games. Woodrood has a 5.81 ERA (6.00 on the road) to go along with a 1.481 WHIP. Off yesterday's bad loss, expect Syndergaard and the Mets to bounce back big today. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. While I won with the Reds yesterday, I'm coming right back against them today. Yesterday's game took forever, as there was a 2 hour and 42 minute rain delay. While the Reds were dealing with that, St. Louis had the day off. That'll work to the Cards' advantage here. These same two starters faced each other on 4/14, the Cards winning 9-5. Mikolas is off a gem last time out, holding the Mets to four hits and two runs through eight innings. He's got a stellar 0.857 WHIP at home. He's also 2-0 (team is 4-0) in four career starts vs. the Reds. All four wins came by multiple runs. Desclafini has an ugly 6.91 ERA on the road. Throw in the fact that the Cards have the best home record in baseball and this line could easily be much higher. Cards roll. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Given the pitching matchup, this line could easily be much higher. Castillo has an outstanding 1.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP overall. At home, those numbers are even better as he has a 0.92 ERA here to go along with a 0.66 WHIP. On the other hand, Teheran has a 5.61 ERA and 1.636 WHIP. On the road, those numbers are even worse as he has a 8.59 ERA to go along with a 1.704 WHIP. In his last two starts vs. the Reds, Teheran has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits, in 11 innings. Off yesterday's loss, look for Castillo and the Reds to bounce back and grab the rubber game of this series. 

I'm playing on Seattle/San Diego UNDER the total. While yesterday's game snuck over the number, I'm expecting a well-pitched affair this afternoon. Paddack had a 2.10 ERA in the minors last season. This spring, he had a 1.76 ERA through five starts, the final one coming against the Mariners. Through four big league starts, Paddack has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.800 WHIP.  At home, his WHIP dips to a miniscule 0.636. King Felix has also enjoyed success here at Petco. In fact, he's 5-1 with a dominant 1.63 ERA in eight starts here. In his last four starts against the Padres, he's allowed 1, 1, 1 and 2 earned runs. His lone 2018 start against SD resulted in a 2-1 final. Yesterday notwithstanding, the UNDER has been money here this season. Look for the final combined score to stay beneath the number. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I lost with the A's yesterday but I'm coming right back with them today. Both starters have excellent ERA's to start the season. (Anderson is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA. Sanchez is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA.) I like what I see from Anderson more so far though. Over his past two starts, Anderson has allowed four combined runs in 13 innings, walking just three. Over his past two starts, Sanchez has walked eight batters in 11 innings. He allowed four earned runs last time out. Anderson has a 1.21 WHIP compared to Sanchez's 1.36 mark. Its also worth mentioning that Sanchez has been rocked both times he started against Oakland, once last season and once in 2016. The A's are 22-6 the past 28 times that they were listed as home favorites of -150 or greater. Expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep.