I'm playing on Cincinnati and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener, which pitted a pair of right-handers against each other, finished with eight combined runs. I expect this evening's "all southpaw affair" to prove lower-scoring.

Cingrani has been excellent. In 15 starts, he's 6-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.004 WHIP. Last time out, he struck out nine in 6 1/3 innings, giving up just four hits and one run. He won 2-1. In his previous start, he gave up two runs - but both were unearned - losing 3-1. In 86 2/3 innings as a starter, Cingrani has 100 K's, walking 31.

Meanwhile, all Corbin has done is go 12-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.041 WHIP on the season. He's got 140Ks to just 42 walks, averaging nearly seven innings every time he takes the mound.

True, Corbin did give up four runs in seven innings last time out. However, as that was just the fourth time in 24 starts that he's given up more than three earned runs, I think we can cut him a little slack.

Corbin should benefit from facing a Reds' lineup that doesn't hit nearly as well vs. southpaws. Cincinnati entered the series averaging 4.6 runs and hitting .250 vs. right-handers. However, the Reds average only 3.7 runs, hitting .241, in games started by left-handers.

Not surprising, the UNDER is 25-15-2 when the Red have faced a southpaw, those games averaging seven combined runs.

Both bullpens have solid numbers on the season.

While Cingrani will have the advantage of starting against Arizona for the first time, Corbin's lone 2013 start vs. the Reds saw him allow just three hits and one run through eight innings. Including another start last season, he's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.954 WHIP vs. Cncy, the UNDER going 1-0-1. As noted, I expect a well-pitcher affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. After successfully backing the Angels in four straight starts (7/19, 7/24, 7/29 and 8/3) made by Weaver, I've avoided them in each of his last two starts. I'm ready to jump back on the Weaver train here though. Weaver's last two starts have come on the road, a big part of the reason that I didn't back the Angels in either. (After getting roughed up last time out, he's 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA on the road.) Now, however, he's back at home where he's 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Keep in mind that Weaver was 11-2 with a 2.44 ERA here last season, too. For his career, he's an extremely impressive 58-22 at home with a 2.63 ERA. The Indians know all about how tough Weaver can be. Including a win at Cleveland two starts ago he's 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 career starts against them. He's allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of those starts. In his last four starts against the Tribe, he's allowed a total of just three earned runs in 27 innings, a 1.00 ERA. In his last eight starts against them, he's 6-1 with a 1.31 ERA. Salazar was fairly impressive in his first two starts, both of which came at home. However, he made his first start away from Cleveland last time out and gave up three runs in just four innings. It could have been even worse, as he served up two home runs and three walks. As of this writing, Trout's status is uncertain. However, even if he doesn't go and I'm assuming he won't, this team still has plenty of pop. Note that both Hamilton and Trumbo hit HR's yesterday. While Salazar does have good stuff, he doesn't have the savvy of Weaver and he remains largely unproven. The Angels are 6-3 (+1.2) as a host in this series the past couple of seasons and I look for them to start the current series off with a win. *8 annihilator

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. I could see how many might like the Orioles here. After all, they're playing at home - they've got the HR leader in their lineup - and their pitcher has a far superior record than Tampa's starting pitcher. All those factors should of course be considered, however, I still like the visitors.

Before getting into the pitching matchups, note that the O's haven't fared nearly as well vs. left-handed pitching as the Rays have against right-handers.

Baltimore averages only 4.3 runs per game vs. southpaws and hits only .254. In fact, the O's are just 18-21 (-6.6) against left-handers. (The Rays are 46-34/+3.4 vs. right-handers.)

As mentioned, Tillman's record is much better than Price's. I think most would agree that Price, the reigning Cy Young winner in the AL, is still the better pitcher though.

Even with a mediocre outing last time out (TB still won) Price's recent stats are still outstanding. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.96 ERA and 0.826 WHIP. Going back further finds him at 5-1 with a superb 1.77 ERA since the beginning of July.

Price's last road start saw him hold the Dodgers to a single unearned run through seven innings. He's 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.968 WHIP on the road overall.

Tillman is off a couple of quality road starts. However, he got roughed up for six runs in 5.3 innings in his last home start. Despite his impressive record, he's got a mediocre 4.36 ERA and 1.336 WHIP here.

Price averages 7 innings per road start while Tillman averages 5.9 per road start.

While they both have a lot of strikeouts. Tillman has more than 3x as many walks as Price. He's also served up 10 more home runs - the Rays have taken him deep 5x already this season.

The Rays have taken five of the last six in the season series, hitting .307 in the process, and are 3 1/2 games ahead of Baltimore. As much as the O's want to gain ground on them, the Rays are every bit as motivated to put some distance between the clubs.

Both teams won yesterday - however, I'd argue that Tampa's victory was more of the "momentum-building" type. Either way, the Rays have owned the O's and with Price on the mound, I look for them to get it done again tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Sox have taken two of three in the series, including each of the last two. I like the Twins to bounce back and salvage the split this afternoon though.

The Twins are 4-2 (+2.4) when Deduno starts at home, going 8-7 (+2.8) in his 15 starts overall.

While he admittedly deserves better, the Sox are only 5-12 (-6.2) when Santiago takes the mound, just 2-6 (-3.6) away from Chicago. Last time out, Santiago walked four batters in five innings.

The Sox haven't seen Deduno since last year. On the other hand, the Twins already rocked Santiago earlier this season. While he only gave up three "earned" runs, Santiago gave up six runs in total, taking the "L" in a 10-3 win for Minnesota.

While the Sox average 3.7 rpg vs. right handers, the Twins average 4.3 rpg vs. southpaws.

While Chicago relievers have a respectable 3.90 ERA and 1.351 WHIP on the road, Minnesota relievers have a better 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home.

While the Sox are now 20-26 (-.6.6) in day games, the Twins have quietly gone a profitable 25-23 (+10.7) when playing during the afternoon.

Deduno has only made two daytime starts and he's 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in those games, opposing batters hitting a mere .191.

For this career, Deduno has a 7-3 home record with a 2.99 ERA and .197 opponents batting average. I like him and the Twins to bounce back. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I know that its hard to go against the Dodgers right now. They're a talented team which has been on a remarkable roll. That said, I expect their current streak to come to a temporary halt this afternoon.

On paper, the Phillies may not have much to play for. However, that doesn't tell the story. This is a team which is looking to avoid being swept, which has been blanked in back-to-back games and which has a new manager, looking for his first victory. I believe that "lack of motivation" will NOT be an issue and that they'll be every bit as "hungry" (if not more) than their red hot guests.

Kershaw was on the mound yesterday and he's arguably as good as anyone in the game. So, getting shut out by him wasn't a complete shock. Greinke pitched before that and he's also extremely capable. Nolasco, although pitching well recently, isn't in nearly the same class though. I don't think he's as good as Hamels either.

You won't find many pitchers with a 5-13 record that are as good as Hamels. While he did start off poorly, Hamels' overall stats have been getting better and better for weeks now. Over his last four starts, he's got a superb 1.45 ERA. That includes a 1.12 ERA his last three starts, most recently a complete game 5-1 win over the Braves.

Note that Hamels is also 6-1 with a 2.39 ERA vs. the Dodgers.

While the Phillies have seen Nolasco a few times (Philly won all 3 games) this season, the Dodgers haven't seen Hamels since last June.

The Dodgers don't hit nearly as well vs. southpaws, averaging only 3.6 rpg against them on the season. I expect them to finally "meet their match" this afternoon. 10* best bet

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Mets are probably happy to see the last of the red hot Dodgers. They shouldn't get too excited yet though as they're up against a red hot pitcher tonight.

Ross may only be 3-5 but he's got a stellar 2.75 ERA. A closer look reveals that he's actually 3-2 with 2.20 ERA and 1.122 WHIP as a starter. In his seven starts, he's only allowed a single home run.

Looking deeper still and we find that he's got an outstanding 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP his last three starts. Since returning to the starting rotation, he's 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA.

San Diego manager Bud Black had this to say of Ross: "He pitches aggressively with the fastball, and the slider has been outstanding since he's come back and joined our rotation."

Its true that Wheeler has also been good, particularly on the road. His overall numbers as a starter (3.47 ERA and 1.351 WHIP) aren't as good as Ross' numbers as a starter though and he's only one start removed from getting roughed up by the Royals. Note that he's allowed nine home runs in 57 innings, compared to Ross' two HR's in 40 innings as a starter. Also, note that Ross has the superior K/W ratio.

True, the Padres have struggled of late. Those problems came primarily on the road. They're better than .500 (32-29) here at Petco. That includes a 5-3 (+1) mark when playing a home game where the line ranged from -125 to -150. They're now a profitable 27-15 (+6.9) in that role the past few seasons. Behind another quality effort from Ross, I expect them to begin the homestand with a victory. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on TAMPA on the run-line. (-1.5 runs.) Its not that often that I'll lay -1.5 runs. However, in this case, I'm comfortable doing so.

Since coming back from the disabled list, Price is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in eight starts. During that stretch, he tossed three complete games. That includes a remarkable 0.77 ERA and 0.643 WHP his last three starts.

While he did walk one last time out, Price had previously gone 35+ innings without issuing a free pass. In other words, the 2012 AL Cy Young winner remains one of the best in the business. Poor Seattle has never faced him either.

Some of you may recall that I successfully played on the Mariners in Harang's last start. However, he was pitching at home - and he wasn't matchup up against Price. Furthermore, I was fortunate to win that one - as Harang got rocked. (He gave up seven runs in two innings but the M's bailed him out by scoring nine and providing seven innings of shutout relief!)

Some of may also remember that I also successfully played against the Mariners the last time that Harang pitched on the road. Once again, he gave up seven runs. The M's did again provide him with plenty of support - but it wasn't enough. Harang took the "L" in an 11-8 loss.

Including that debacle, Harang is 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA on the road this season, the M's going 1-6. He's also 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 1.833 WHIP his last three starts.

Even with yesterday's loss, their fifth straight, the Rays are still 22-11 (+11.5) the past few seasons, when off three or more consecutive losses. With their ace on the mound, I expect them to bounce back in a big way here, "covering the spread," along the way. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on ARIZONA. After rallying for an important win yesterday, the Diamondbacks are in position for a sweep. I feel that they'll have the advantage again here.

Both starters have outstanding records and both are currently in very good form. However, as good as Tillman has been, Corbin has arguably been better.

Tillman does have a slightly better record, as he's 14-3 while Corbin is 12-3. That said, the Dbax are 19-4 when Corbin takes the mound which is slightly better than Baltimore's 18-5 record when Tillman does. Let's call that part a wash.

A look at the other stats favors Arizona's starter. Tillman has a 3.73 ERA and 1.293 WHIP. On the other hand, Corbin has a 2.36 ERA and 1.023 WHIP. At home, Corbin's numbers dip to a remarkable 1.60 and 0.978. Advantage Dbax.

Tillman averages a solid 6.1 innings per start and has an impressive 118 K's to 51 walks. Corbin has him beat there though too. He averages 6.8 innings and has 133 K's to just 41 walks. Advantage Dbax.

Tillman has given up 24 home runs in 140 innings. Meanwhile, Corbin has permitted only 10 home runs in 156.3 innings. Advantage Dbax.

It should also be mentioned that the Arizona bullpen has been better statistically at home than the Baltimore bullpen has been on the road.

While many may not believe the O's are capable of being "swept," I'm not among them. I like the momentum that the Dbax have and I expect them to close out the homestand with another victory. 8* annihilator

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins got the series started with a well-pitched victory yesterday. I expect them to have the advantage again this evening.

Deduno is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.061 WHIP at home. He's averaging 6.6 innings per start here and the Twins are 4-1 (+3.6) when he takes the mound here. In 33 home innings, he's only allowed a single home run.

On the other hand, McAllister is 1-4 in seven road starts, averaging 5.5 innings. He's got a 4.23 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in those games. Last time out, McAllister gave up six runs in 2.3 innings. Walking four didn't help matters.

True, the Indians did beat Deduno at Cleveland back in June. Deduno wasn't that bad in that start though (4 runs in 6 innings) and he's still 2-1 against them for his career. In his lone home start vs. the Twins, he allowed just two runs through seven innings, outpitching Masterson and winning 7-2.

Conversely, McAllister is 0-3 with an awful 8.00 ERA and 2.556 WHIP vs. the Twins. His team has been outscored 23-7 in losing those three games, each loss coming by multiple runs.

In addition to having an edge in the starting pitching department tonight, the Twins should also enjoy an advantage in terms of the bullpen. Entering the series, the Twins' relievers had a 2.97 ERA and 1.092 WHIP at home. Meanwhile, Cleveland relievers had a 4.00 ERA and 1.354 WHIP on the road.

The Indians are only 4-13 (-8.2) when playing on the road with a line in the +100 to +125 range. Going back further finds them at an awful 25-45 (-17) in that role the past few seasons.

All things considered, I believe the current price is more than fair. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX. I won with the Sox yesterday and I really like them again this afternoon.

After getting swept in Friday's double-header, the Sox found themselves trailing mid way through yesterday's game. However, they rallied for a win, giving them some positive momentum heading into this afternoon's contest.

Quintana come off another game last time out. In 6 2/3 innings, he limited the Yankees to a single run, en route to an 8-1 victory. Including that effort, he's got a 2.89 ERA his last three starts, striking out 16 while walking just four. Going back a little further finds him at 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA over his last seven starts.

For the seasons, he's 4-3 with a very solid 3.30 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in a dozen home starts.

By comparison, Correia is 2-7 with an awful 6.87 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 11 road starts. Last time out, he got rocked for six runs in just two innings.

Over his last three starts, Correia now has a brutal 13.03 ERA and 2.896 WHIP.

While Quintana hasn't started against the Twins since last season, the Sox have already seen Correia a couple of times. While he didn't fare well against the Twins last season, I expect Quintana to continue his strong pitching, getting the better of Correia, as the Sox salvage the split. 10*

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Mariners got beat up in last night's opener. With a favorable matchup on the mound, I fully expect them to return the favor this evening.

Iwakuma is quietly having an excellent season. He's 10-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.972 WHIP. He averages better than 6.5 innings per start and has 135 Ks vs. just 27 walks. At home, those numbers are even better.

In 13 home starts, Iwakuma has a 5-2 record to go along with a stellar 2.48 ERA and a superb 0.782 WHIP. In 13 games here, a span of 87 innings, he's only walked eight batters.

Despite suffering a hard-luck loss last time out, Iwakuma's has been outstanding of late. In fact, he's got a 0.95 ERA his last three starts. He's 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA his last five.

On the other hand, Gorzellany has a 6.75 ERA his last three starts and his team is only 2-4 when he takes the mound as a starter.

It should also be noted that Gorzellany hasn't pitched in eight days, as he left early in the second inning of his last start, after being hit by a line drive.

Speaking of injuries, the Brewers remain quite banged-up.

Yesterday notwithstanding, the M's have been much better at home than the Brewers have been on the road. They're also still 9-5 their last 14 against teams with a losing record. In fact, Seattle has quietly gone 42-27 (+12.8) the past few seasons, when facing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. I say its payback time. 10* IL GOY

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Twins swept yesterday's double-header and have dominated the season series. I expect the Sox to get a small measure of revenge this afternoon.

Rienzo has only made two starts. He pitched very well in both (1.38 ERA!) but the Sox failed to provide him with enough run support. That shouldn't be an issue this time.

Pelfrey is 4-9 with a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.568 WHIP. Over his last three starts, that WHIP climbs to 1.733.

While Rienzo has gone at least six innings (avg of 6.5) in each of his starts, Pelfrey has failed to go more than five in either of his last two starts. For the season, he's averaging only five innings per road start.

While Rienzo will have the advantage of facing the Twins for the first time, the Sox have already hammered Rienzo a couple of times this season. Pelfrey has an 8.10 ERA and 2.000 WHIP from those games. In 10 innings against Chicago, he's given up 18 hits and nine runs.

I expect the Sox to finally provide Rienzo with some help, as the Twins fall to 15-30 (-12.4) the last 45 times that they played on the road when the line ranged from +100 to +125. 10* annihilator

I'm playing on SEATTLE. After losing on both Monday and Tuesday, the Mariners fell behind out of the gate on Wednesday afternoon. They rallied for a big comeback victory that day though, knocking off the Jays by a 9-7 margin. (That was their biggest comeback win in more than two years.) After an off day yesterday, they now face a Milwaukee team which really struggles against left-handing pitching. I expect them to have the advantage.

After the big comeback win (Michael) Saunders noted: "...we've been swinging the bats really well one through nine."

(Joe) Saunders, a southpaw, held the Orioles to two runs through six innings last time out, earning a 3-2 victory. In 10 home starts, he's 5-4 with a solid 3.62 ERA and 1.274 WHIP.

Saunders should be happy to face a Milwaukee lineup which averages just 3.4 runs per game vs. left-handed starters. Not surprisingly, the Brewers are an ugly 10-24 (-14.9) in games vs. southpaws. They're also 3-9 (-7.7) in interleague action this season, going a money-burning 15-27 (-15.7) the past few seasons.

Admittedly, Lohse has pitched well of late. However, he's still 2-5 on the road, his team going 4-8. While he hasn't pitched here in several years, his last visit here resulted in a 9-1 loss, Loshe giving up eight of those runs and three home runs.

While the M's had yesterday off, the Brewers were busy losing at SF. Milwaukee is now 22-35 on the road while Seattle is 30-30 at home. All things considered, I believe the price is more than fair. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SEATTLE. With many Canadian fans coming over from BC to cheer on the Jays, a series at Safeco is a little bit like a home game for the Jays. Those Canadian fans have to be pretty pleased with their team the past couple of days, as they've beaten the Mariners' two best pitchers, Iwakuma and Hernandez. On the surface, a matchup against Aaron Harang figures to be a little easier. I don't expect that to be the case though.

Some of you may recall that I successfully played against the M's the last time that Harang pitched. That was on the road though, against a tough Baltimore team and up against a pitcher that rarely loses and which had owned the M's. This afternoon represents a much different situation.

Now Harang, who is from the West Coast, is at home - where he's pitched very well recently. He's facing a team which hasn't seen him in several years and he's up against an opposing pitcher who hasn't started in the majors for months.

Harang has quietly allowed one run in each of his last two starts here. A closer look reveals that he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts here. In 11 starts at Safeco, since joining the Mariners, Harang has allowed three earned runs or less eight times. (He's also allowed three or fewer earned runs in five straight home starts before joining the team.)

It should also be noted that Harang has been much better when pitching during the afternoon than at night. In five daytime starts, he has a solid 3.58 ERA to go along with a stingy 0.98 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .300 against him at night but a mere .194 during the day.

Happ figures to be happy to be back, as he hasn't pitched since May. Still, this is his first big league start since getting hit in the head with a line drive and its a little hard to know what to expect from him. That said, given the fact that he was 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three rehab starts at Buffalo AND that he had a 5.40 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in four road starts, prior to the injury, I don't expect any complete-game shutouts. Not even close.

Its bad enough to have all these Toronto fans at their own ballpark. Today, I expect the M's to reward the "home" fans by bouncing back and avoiding the sweep. 10* getaway day gow

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I'm well aware of how hot the Braves are right now, as they beat me just last night. I'm also aware that the Braves have enjoyed success against the Nationals this season. That said, I like the Nats to start the current series off with a very important win.

Even with their recent wins at Philadelphia and current winning streak, keep in mind that the Braves are still below .500 on the road; the Nats are 31-25 at home.

Obviously, the Braves want to keep on rolling. Already up 12.5 games, they know they can pretty much lock up the division if they sweep this series. However, they don't "need" to win the same way that Washington does.

For the Nats, this is essentially a playoff series. If they could somehow sweep the Braves, they'd be within 10 games of them. Granted, that's a big "if" and they'd still be a long ways back.

But as Denard Span noted: "We have to keep battling. Don't quit trying to win the division until you are mathematically out of it."

I expect Stephen Strasburg, who got shut down when the games became important last season, to be particularly motivated for a big performance. Note that Strasburg has a 1.93 ERA in three starts - one of them shortened due to injury - vs. the Braves this season.

Strasburg may only be 4-4 in 11 starts here at Washington. However, he's got a dominating 1.68 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in those games, averaging 6.8 innings per start. In 75 innings here, Strasburg has recorded 81 Ks while walking only 13 and giving up just five home runs.

Admittedly, Minor has also been tough - and he's coming off a great game. Its hard to say too many negative things about him, as he's having a strong season overall. A 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in six career starts vs. Washington is nothing special though. (His lone start here resulted in a loss.) Lets also not forget that he'd never previously finished a season with an ERA of less than four.

In addition to having homefield advantage, the Nats have a slight scheduling advantage. While the Braves played an evening ESPN game at Philadelphia last night, the Nationals wrapped up their series at Milwaukee by playing an early game yesterday afternoon. Keep in mind that the Braves also played a 12-inning game on Saturday.

I expect Strasburg to come through with a big game and for the "desperate" Nationals, who are 63-51 (+9.3) against southpaws the past couple of seasons, to snap the Braves winning streak. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. There's no denying that the Braves appear are in great shape to win the division OR that they're the much hotter team. Still, one can't overlook the fact that the Phillies are sending Cliff Lee to the mound to face Alex Wood. Desperate to stop the bleeding and with a proven winner on the mound, I expect them to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

While he hasn't been at his best lately, Lee still has 16 K's vs. just a single walk over his last three starts. So, its not like he's "losing control." For the season, he's still 10-4 with a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. He's averaging better than seven innings per start and has 55 Ks vs. just six walks in 55 innings here at home.

On the other hand, Wood has made just three starts this season, having primarily worked out of the bullpen. He's got a 5.02 ERA and 1.535 WHIP in those games, averaging less than five innings. His lone road start resulted in a 7-4 loss, Wood compiling a terrible 8.39 ERA and 2.309 WHIP.

Lee is already 2-0 against the Braves this season, striking out 12 without walking a batter. I expect him to outpitch and outlast Wood, as the Phillies, who are still a lucrative 33-17 (+9.6) the last 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, to finally stop the bleeding. 10* main event

I'm playing on Seattle and Baltimore to finish UNDER the number. The first two games of this series both finished above the total. Game 1 pitted two right-handers against each other while yesterday featured a righty vs. lefty matchup. They both produced double-digits in combined runs. I expect this afternoon's "all southpaw affair" to be considerably lower scoring.

Neither team has scored as many runs, or hit as well, in games against left-handed starter. The Orioles entered the series averaging 4.9 runs and hitting .271 vs. right-handed starters. They've since improved on those numbers. Yet, they entered the series hitting only vs. southpaws, averaging just

The Mariners entered the series averaging 4.1 runs vs. right-handed starters, hitting .249. However, they're averaging a mere 3.9 runs while hitting .232 vs. southpaw starters.

Chen takes the mound for Baltimore and he's been red hot. He's been very consistent (when healthy) on the season - both for the Orioles and for "under" bettors. Indeed, 10 of his 12 starts have fallen below the total, Chen going 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA. Since returning from injury, he's 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA.

Chen's home stats are even better. In four starts here, he's 3-0 (O's are 4-0) with a 2.36 ERA and 1.125 WHIP. All four games stayed below the posted total.

Admittedly, Saunders hasn't been as good as Chen. However, it should be noted that he's had success vs. the Orioles, the team he pitched for last season. His lone start against them this season finished above the total but a closer look reveals that the O/U line was only 7.5 and that the game only finished with eight runs, a 6-2 win for the Mariners. Saunders personally tossed a complete game 4-hitter, improving to 6-0 (team is 8-0) in eight career starts vs. the Orioles.

Over the past couple of seasons, the Mariners have seen the UNDER go 71-50 vs. southpaws, excluding pushes. During that stretch, the UNDER is 66-59 when the O's faced a left-hander, 18-14 this season. With the M's hitting only .230 and averaging 3.8 runs when playing during the day, I feel this number is generous. 9* best bet

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Reds yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again this afternoon.

Needless to say, yesterday's victory was a big one for the Reds. Now, they've regained some positive momentum. Perhaps more importantly, I expect them to have an edge on the mound.

Leake checks in with a 10-4 record to go along with a stellar 2.59 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. Last time out, he got no run support but tossed seven shutout innings. In his previous start, he allowed just a single run though six innings.

Admittedly, Lynn has also been stingy his past couple of outings. However, one can't completely ignore the fact that he's got a poor 5.20 ERA in 11 road starts. Its also worth mentioning that Lynn has a 4.74 ERA in his few afternoon starts, with opposing batters hitting much better against him during the day than in the evening.

Over the past couple of seasons, as a team, the Cards are 81-73 (-6.6) in afternoon games. The Reds were better, going 91-72 (+4.5), during the same stretch.

The Reds are now 33-18 at home compared to the Cards' 32-28 mark on the road. I believe the price is fair and I believe the Reds have an excellent shot at grabbing this afternoon's rubber game. 9* breakfast club

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Cardinals took yesterday's game with ease, scoring 13 runs for the second consecutive day. I expect them to find things considerably more difficult this evening.

While they beat up on a right-hander yesterday, the Cards have had real trouble vs. southpaws this season. They're 0-3 their last three vs. left-handed starters, going 11-15 (-9.5) overall. They're hitting only .255 vs. southpaws, averaging just 4.1 runs. (Those numbers aren't nearly as good as their stats vs. right-handers.) They'll be up against a tough southpaw here, one who they aren't very familiar with and one who is currently in excellent form.

Since rejoining the rotation last month, Cingrani has been outstanding. In five starts, he's compiled a superb 2.03 ERA. During that stretch, Cingrani has recorded 33 K's in 30 1/3 innings and opposing hitters are batting a mere .163.

Last time out, Cingrani tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 11, while only allowing one hit and one walk. Including that dominating effort, he's 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.962 WHIP his last three. Note that he didn't give up a home run in any of those games either.

In 12 starts overall, Cingrani is 4-1 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.981 WHIP.

While Cingrani was dominating last time out, Westbrook was getting rocked. He lasted only five innings at Pittsburgh, giving up four runs. He took the "L" in a 9-2 loss.

For the season, he's 2-5 with a poor 4.76 ERA and an ugly 1.706 WHIP.

While Westbrook did pitch well at home vs. the Reds back in April, he lost his last start here at Cincinnati, giving up four runs on nine hits.

Yesterday notwithstanding, the Reds are very tough in this ballpark. I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion. 10* NL GOY

I'm playing on LA and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. The Angels scored early and often last night, eventually winning 8-2. I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair this evening.

Redmond was excellent last time out. In six innings, he struck out 10 batters, allowing just three hits and one run. The final score was 2-1.

While Redmond will have the advantage of starting against the Angels for the first time, Hanson was very stingy in his lone start vs. the Jays. That came in June of last year, a game which saw him allow only two runs through eight complete innings, en route to a 5-2 win.

While the Jays may only be hitting .242 on the road and averaging 4.1 runs, they've also got a bullpen which has a superb 2.25 ERA on the road. Add it all up and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. *10 blue chip

I'm playing on TEXAS. Considering how many games these teams are still going to play against each other, the gap between them isn't insurmountable. However, the "feeling" in the two clubhouses is entirely different. Especially after last night. Throw in the fact that the Rangers have been considerably better against left-handed starters and I expect them to have the advantage this evening.

Last night, the Rangers rallied for a comeback win. Another devastating blow to an Angels team which recently lost Pujols for the season and which, barring a miracle, is now well out of the playoff race. While the Angels are waving the white flag, the same is not true of the Rangers - who still very much believe. Last night's comeback snapped their skid in dramatic fashion and they're now ready to get back to chasing down the A's.

Both starters have been stingy. They've got similar overall number. Holland has a 3.06 ERA and 1.262 WHIP, averaging 6.7 innings. Wilson has a 3.18 ERA and 1.275 WHIP, averaging 6.5 innings. The Angels are 12-9 when Wilson starts while the Rangers are 13-8 when Holland does.

A closer look reveals that Holland's 3.26 home ERA is considerably better than Wilson's 4.21 mark on the road.

Wison, a former Ranger, is 0-2 with a terrible 7.65 ERA against Texas, including an 0-1 mark with a brutal 11.12 ERA in three starts here at Arlington, as an Angel.

The Angels are 10-15 (-8.8) vs. southpaws. They're hitting just .243 against left-handers, averaging 3.7 runs. On the other hand, the Rangers are 19-13 (+1.1) against southpaws, averaging 4.6 runs and hitting .276. Having stopped the bleeding, I expect the Rangers to make it two in a row tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on LA and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. I know some "over bettors" who often can't resist a line of 6.5. Regardless of the pitching matchup, a line of 6.5 just seems too low to them. I've never been shy about going the other way on these though and believe that this is the lowest O/U line on today's board for good reason.

Kershaw, of course, is one of the best in the game. He's 9-6 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the season, going 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA his last five. Over his last three starts, he's got an outstanding 0.591 WHIP. In 11 home starts this season, seven of which have fallen below the total, Kershaw has a dominating 1.80 ERA.

Note that Kershaw has 19 Ks vs. just a single walk over his last two starts.

Kershaw's last home start vs. the Reds resulted in a 3-2 final score, Kershaw allowing one run on four hits, through seven innings.

Admittedly, Bailey isn't as consistent as Kershaw. However, he's proven that he can be as good as anybody, when he's on his game. With 19 K's vs just two walks his last two starts, facing an LA team which only averages 3.4 runs here, I believe he's poised for a strong effort.

Dusty Baker said this of Bailey's last start: "Homer was dealing. It's kind of rough when you're throwing the ball like that and you can't get any hits.''

Bailey's lone 2012 start at LA saw him allow only two runs and five hits through eight innings, striking out seven and walking one. In his previous start here, he allowed one run on four hits, through seven innings.

The Dodgers have seen the UNDER go 14-8-2 the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range. I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I successfully backed the Diamondbacks in each of their last couple of wins, most recently last night. I believe this will be another good spot for them and that the price on them is fair.

While the Diamondbacks are a respectable 29-22 at home, the Padres are a poor 19-34 away from San Diego. Not surprisingly, the home team has had the advantage in the season series.

Stults is a pitcher who has fared well at Petco but not so well on the road. In 12 road starts and off a loss last time out, he's 3-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.401 WHIP.

The Dbax have seen Stults a couple of times this season. He beat them at Petco but they beat him here at Arizona.

Delgado, who will have the advantage of starting for the first time against the Padres, tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings last time out, en route to a 3-1 win. He's got a respectable 3.16 ERA in seven starts.

While the Padres are 26-61 (-26) the past few seasons, as road underdogs in the 125 to 150 range, the Dbax are 34-20 (+7) as home favorites in the 125 to 150 range. They've been here at home all week while the Padres played at Milwaukee yesterday and are now playing their eighth straight on the road. I expect a win for the home team. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Cubs have taken two of the first three meetings. Tonight, I expect the Diamondbacks to salvage the series split.

Miley has been very tough in his recent home starts. In fact, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine straight starts now, compiling an ERA below three during that stretch. The Dbax are 5-2 (+2.8) when he takes the mound at home this season.

On the other hand, the Cubs are 1-3 when Villanueva starts on the road. Last time out, Villanueva gave up seven runs in four innings. In that short amount of time, he gave up nine hits and walked four batters, failing to record a strikeout.

Chicago manager Dale Sveum said this of Villanueva' s last outing: "He got through the first few innings, but there was still no fastball command at all. He's got to be able to start up his fastball a lot more than he is ... "

The Cubs are 23-41 (-9.1) the past few seasons, as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, going 16-40 (13.9) when in the +150 to +175 range. Meanwhile, during that time, the Dbax are 37-14 (+14.4) as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on Miami and Colorado to finish OVER the total. Both these teams are currently on profitable "under" streaks and the first three games of this series have all dipped below the total. I expect the bats to come alive this afternoon though.

Nicasio has a 4.73 ERA on the season. With his last start finishing with a score of 9-3, the OVER is ow 12-5-1 when he takes the mound. He's made one start vs. the Marlins and it finished with 13 runs. He gave up nine hits and six runs (5 earned) in five innings.

Eovaldi has seen four of his six starts top the total. Last time out, he lasted only four innings, giving up 10 hits and six runs. He's got a 5.16 ERA in four road starts and a 6.48 ERA (1.62 WHIP) his last three overall. Two of his three starts vs. the Rockies have finished above the total.

I'm expect to see double-digits in runs scored and with the number having dipped from 10 to 9.5 at several shops, I feel we're getting excellent value. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals are struggling right now and dropped yesterday's series opener. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value this evening though and I look for them to bounce back with a big win.

Jordan may not have earned a win yet. However, that's not his fault. Washington's rookie has a solid 3.32 ERA and has allowed three earned runs or less every time that he's taken the mound.

Last time out, Jordan allowed two runs through six innings. The Nats won 5-2 but Jordan didn't factor in the decision. The Nats also won his lone home start, Jordan again allowing two runs. Once again, however, he didn't factor in the decision.

Pittsburgh's rookie has also been solid. Through seven starts, Cole is 4-3 with a 3.89 ERA. He wasn't particularly sharp last time out though, allowing three runs in five innings. Manager

Clint Hurdle said this of Cole's last outing: "It's the growing pains of a young pitcher. His command wasn't good and the changeup didn't come into play until the 35th pitch of the game even though it had been a good pitch for him in his previous outing.''

Note that the Pittsburgh bullpen, which has been a strength all season, took a big hit last night, as closer Grilli went down with an injury. While his status is still unclear, its hard to imagine him pitching tonight.

I don't believe that the Nats are ready to quit on this season yet. As manager Davey Johnson noted: "There's a lot of character on this ballclub, there's no quit, there's a lot of fight. By and large everybody swung the bat pretty good.''

The Nats are still 30-22 (+4.6) the past couple of seasons when playing a home game with a line in the +100 to -125 range. During that time, they're also still a profitable 25-18 (+7.8) after three or more consecutive losses. I expect them to stop the bleeding tonight, Jordan picking up his first "W" in the process. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. While yesterday didn't go as planned, the Angels still did take two of three against the A's. I was on the Angels for both of those victories (while avoiding them in the loss) and feel that this will be another good spot to back them.

Obviously, Blanton isn't going to be winning any Cy Young awards. Indeed, his numbers are downright ugly - you may have seen him "explode" in the dugout last time out. That said, the second half offers a chance for a bit for a fresh start. Facing a Twins team which is 18-30 away from home and which hits .228 and averages 3.7 runs on the road gives Blanton a real chance to get himself back on track. Knowing that he won't have many more opportunities, if he doesn't make the most of them, I expect Blanton to bounce back with a much better effort.

Keep in mind that before struggling in his final few starts before the break, Blanton had gone through a 3-game stretch where his ERA was 2.14.

I've watched Deduno in person and know that he's got excellent stuff. I also know that he's often inconsistent away from Minnesota and that walks can be a problem for him on the road.

True, he did pitch very well at New York last time out. However, he got rocked at Tampa in his previous start and is still 2-3 (Twins are 2-4) with a 4.59 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in six road starts.

For his career, Deduno is 7-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home, opposing hitters batting a mere .193. However, on the road, he's 4-7 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .302. He's also recorded more walks (44) than K's (42) on the road.

Yesterday notwithstanding, the Angels are a very capable offensive team. Needless to say, they're offensive stats are far better than the Twins.

While most teams that are as far back as the Angels don't have much hope, I don't believe the Angels have written off their season yet. They need to take advantage of teams like the Twins, as does Blanton - and I look for them to do just that tonight. 9* A.L. Personal

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I'm well aware that the Nationals haven't won too many of Haren's recent starts. In fact, some of you will likely recall that I successfully played against the Nats the last time that Haren was on the mound. While I did win that game, it certainly wasn't due to a poor pitching performance by Haren. The opposite was true, as he was extremely sharp. Making his first game back from the break, I expect Haren to build off that effort and for his teammates, who badly need a win themselves, to finally provide him with some support.

A closer look at Haren's last outing shows that he only allowed three hits through six shutout innings. He had seven K's and only walked a single batter. That was on the heels of a relatively solid effort at Philadelphia where Haren allowed two runs.

Haren noted: "I kept the ball down. That has been the key for me in the last two starts."

Needless to say, the Pirates should be a welcome sight for any pitcher. They're hitting .225 with runners in scoring position this season, worst in the NL. That's after going 2 for 27 in that situation over the weekend.

Admittedly, Morton has been fairly solid. He's still only seven starts removed from elbow surgery though and is coming off his longest outing of the season. Keep in mind that he's 24-47 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for his career, opposing hitters batting .288 against him.

While Haren is 3-1 against the Pirates, Morton is 0-2 against the Nats. His teams were 0-3 in those games.

The Nats are 25-17 (+9.1) the past couple of seasons, after losing three or more in a row. That includes a 6-2 (+4.2) mark their last eight in that situation. I believe that the price is fair and I expect them to stop the bleeding. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Orioles have taken the first two games of this series. However, I expect the Rangers to bounce back and avoid the sweep.

There are reports that the Rangers are one of the front-runners in the "Matt Garza sweepstakes," with the most recent deal having apparently fallen through on Friday.

However, the word is that the Rangers aren't willing to part with Perez, who they feel has a lot of upside. I like Perez too and I feel he gives the Rangers a strong chance in today's series finale.

Yes, Perez is coming off a shaky outing. However, in his defense, that was at Detroit, against a potent Tiger lineup which typically hits very well in its home ballpark. He'll face another tough lineup here - however, he'll be doing so in the comforts of his own ballpark. That should make him feel pretty comfortable - in two starts here, he's got a 0.00 ERA!

Note that Perez already beat the O's a couple of weeks ago, at Baltimore. Also, note that Baltimore's offensive stats aren't as good against southpaws as they are against right-handers.

Its true that Tillman has a great (11-3) record. However, his 3.95 ERA and 1.352 WHIP are merely solid - not spectacular. Tillman, who has given up 20 home runs on the season, has a 5.19 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his last three starts. Over his last 10 starts, he's got a 4.34 ERA. He's only pitched past the sixth innings once in his last seven tries. In other words, the fact that he's been fortunate to receive a lot of run support has played a big role in racking up the 11 wins.

The last thing the Rangers wanted/needed was to come back from the break and get swept. I expect them to prevent that from happening, as Tillman's run of good fortune comes to a temporary halt. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Philadelphia and NY to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both topped the total. However, I expect the pitchers to take center stage in this afternoon's finale.

Lee is 10-3 with a 2.86 ERA. That includes a 6-1 mark with a dominant 2.09 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the road. Opposing batters are hitting just .197 against him away from Philadelphia this season. In those 11 road starts, he's allowed only two home runs. He's got 125 Ks vs just 21 walks on the season.

Note that Lee is 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in nine starts vs. the Mets.

Harvey is 7-2 with a superb 2.35 ERA on the season. That ERA dips to 2.21 here at NY, to go along with a 0.88 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting only .191 against him here.

The Phillies know how tough Harvey can be. In two starts against Philadelphia, Harvey is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.62 WHIP, Philadelphia batters hitting a mere .116. In four career starts against the Phillies, he's 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.

I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The A's come in with the better record and the reigning home run derby champ. I believe the Angels will have the advantage in tonight's series opener though.

The A's average 4.5 runs and hit .245. The Angels are slightly better, averaging 4.6 runs, hitting .267. I believe that gap could easily widen in the second half.

That means that the A's have been beating teams with pitching - and that the Angels have been hurting themselves in that department. I don't expect that to be the case tonight though.

Griffin can be tough. However, the A's are only 4-6 (-2) when he starts on the road. He's given up 12 home runs in those games and has a 3.94 ERA.

On the other hand, the Angels are 4-2 (+1) when Weaver starts at home. He's given up three home runs in those games and has a 2.87 ERA.

Admittedly, Griffin has pitched very well in two career starts vs. the Angels. However, Weaver has long dominated the A's (2.36 ERA in 24 starts) and he didn't allow a single run against them either of the last two times that he faced them. In fact, in 30 1/3 innings against the A's last season, he allowed only a single run!

The A's have had their way with the Angels so far this season. The Angels know they need to change that this series - and with Weaver on the mound, I feel they've got the perfect opportunity. Its payback time. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Texas and Baltimore to finish UNDER the total. With the Rangers' reputation for being a "big hitting club" and Baltimore's Davis coming to town, some might be expecting a fairly high-scoring contest. I'm not among them.

The Rangers "rep" of being a high-scoring team is from the past, certainly not from this season. Through 95 games, they're averaging only 4.3 runs per game while hitting .260. More importantly, they've seen the UNDER go a lucrative 55-35-5.

Holland has contributed to those "under" stats, particularly here at home. In eight starts here at Texas, Holland has seen the UNDER go 7-1. Note that he's got an impressive 52/12 K/W mark here.

Off a very solid first half, Holland is currently in excellent form. Over his last four starts, he's s 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA, striking out 31 in 28 2/3 innings.

Note that Holland is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA his last four against the Orioles. He's backed be a well-rested Texas bullpen which has a 2.89 ERA here at home.

Chen is also in fine form. After missing some time on the DL, Chen returned and promptly limited these same Rangers to a single run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. He's now 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA (0.886 WHIP) vs. the Rangers.

Chen has made nine starts overall. He's only allowed three home runs in 54+ innings, compiling a 2.82 ERA. The UNDER is 7-2 when he's taken the mound. I expect those stats to improve this evening. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I already knew I was going to like the Padres in this matchup, even before last night's 9-0 blowout loss. Off that embarrassing defeat, I like them even more.

While July certainly hasn't gone as planned - its been a disaster - the Padres still enter today's action within "striking distance." While nobody in San Diego is genuinely expecting them to win the NL West - just being in the fight for it would be a big step in the right direction for this club. I expect them to be highly motivated to stop the bleeding and to head into the break on a winning note. The fact that they've lost the first three games by a combined score of 23-3.

Keep in mind that even including the results of this series, the Giants are still only 18-30 on the road, the Padres are still 26-23 at home. Today's starters, Zito and Stults have played a big part in those records.

Zito is 0-3 with a 5.32 ERA his last seven starts. Worse, he's 0-5 with a terrible 9.38 ERA and 2.399 WHIP in seven road starts. Horrific numbers indeed.

Although many pitchers probably look forward to a visit to San Diego, Zito isn't one of them. He's 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last seven starts here at Petco.

Last time out, Zito gave up five runs in six innings. He allowed seven hits and walked four. Not good.

On the other hand, Stults is off a complete-game gem. He limited the Rockies to four hits and allowed one run, earning the "W" in a 2-1 San Diego victory. He's now 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.852 WHIP in eight starts here. The Padres are a highly profitable 7-1 (+6.2) in those games.

These starters opposed each other twice back in April, once at SF and once here at SD. Not surprisingly, the home team won both games.

While the Giants are averaging 4.2 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, the Padres are averaging 4.4 runs against them - much better than their average vs. right-handers.

I've pointed out a number of times in the past couple of years that the Padres have actually been quite a profitable team when playing during the day. Even with some recent losses, they're still 69-68 (+13.8) in day games the past 2+ seasons. Doesn't sound like much - but when compared to their overall record, they're very good. With Stults getting the better of Zito, I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. *10 First Half GOY

I'm playing on MIAMI. It may look funny to see the Marlins favored. However, given the matchup, I believe that they're favored for good reason. In fact, I feel they could easily be an even heavier favorite.

Keep in mind that the Marlins took yesterday's opener (beating Strasburg) and that their home record is actually a little better than Washington's road record.

Jose Fernandez, who has been named to the NL All Star team, has been one of the best stories of the first half. Certainly for the Marlins, if not the league.

In eight home starts, Fernandez is 3-0 with a superb 1.47 ERA and 0.939 WHIP. In 49 innings here, he's recorded 47 strikeouts while walking only 16 and giving up just three home runs. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .172 against him here.

Fernandez's last home start resulted in a 4-0 victory, Fernandez allowing only two hits against 10Ks.

On the other hand, Haren is 1-7 with a 5.57 ERA in nine road starts, the Nats going 1-8.

While Haren is 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.884 WHIP his last three starts, Fernandez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.947 WHIP his last three starts.

Note that Haren has an 8.41 ERA in four daytime starts, opposing batters hitting .348 against him in those games. Its also worth mentioning that he's 1-4 in six starts vs. the Marlins (teams are 1-5, -5.8) and that they roughed him up for seven runs (3 earned) in 4 1/3 innings back in the spring.

The Nats are only 3-10 (-6.4) the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Facing Miami's all-star rookie for the first time, I expect their struggles in that role to continue. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Atlanta and Cincinnati to finish UNDER the total. This season's earlier three games, which were all played at Cincinnati, all finished above the total. The UNDER is 6-4 the last 10 times that the Reds played here at Atlanta though - and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair this evening.

Latos is 8-2 with a solid 3.18 ERA on the season. In 10 road starts, that ERA dips to 2.91. Averaging 6.5 innings per road start, he's got 62 Ks vs. just 17 walks on the road, serving up just four home runs.

Note that Latos has been stronger in the evening. He's 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven evening appearances.

Latos, who has a career 2.95 ERA in the month of July, has a 2.45 ERA in six starts vs. the Braves.

Hudson got back on track with a gem last time out. He threw 64 of his 92 pitches for strikes, allowing a single run through seven innings.

Hudson figures to be happy to be pitching in his own park. Indeed, he's 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA on the road but 3-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP here at Atlanta.

Note that Hudson is 4-1 with a solid 3.10 ERA in seven starts vs. the Reds.

While the Braves have been seeing a number of recent games top the total, the opposite has been true of the Reds recently. In fact, seven of their last eight games have now dipped below the number. I expect more of the same here. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on Chicago and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both been high-scoring. I expect that to change this afternoon.

Sale has been been an "under" machine. For the season, the UNDER is 11-3-2 when Sale has taken the mound. A combination of strong pitching (2.78 ERA, 0.962 WHIP) and lack of run support. Indeed, the Sox have provided him with a mere nine runs over his last six starts, none over the last two.

Note that all three of Sale's career starts vs. the Tigers stayed below the total.

Some of you may recall that I successfully played on the "over" in Sanchez's last start. That was his first game back from an injury though and I knew he was going to be on a pitch count. (He was also matched up against Carrasco instead of Sale!)

Sanchez was actually very solid in his return, as he allowed just one run on only three hits, through five innings. He still isn't likely to throw a complete game, but should be able to go longer this time.

Sanchez noted the following: "I am building my arm. I don't know how many (pitches) I will have next time, but it's going to be better."

Note that Sanchez, who will have the advantage of facing Chicago for the first time, is 5-1 with a dominating 1.64 ERA and 0.795 WHIP at home this season. He hasn't allowed a single home run here this season.

The UNDER is 75-55-12 in Chicago "day" games the past few seasons. I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 10*

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I've backed the Padres in both games of this series, losing Game 1 and winning last night. I'm ready to come right back with them in this evening's rubber match.

Last night's victory snapped an extended losing streak for San Diego. With the "monkey off their back," I feel that the Padres will be in good shape to build some positive momentum.

Cashner goes for the Padres. Like last night's starter, (Stults) Cashner has been excellent at home. In six starts here at Petco, he's 4-1 with a stingy 2.36 ERA and 0.976 WHIP. He allowed one run through eight innings in his last start here.

Cashner was solid in his lone start against the Rockies this season, allowing three runs through seven innings. The Padres won that 6/6 game, which was played at Coors Field.

On the other hand, De La Rosa gave up 11 hits and four runs, lasting only five innings, in his most recent start vs. San Diego.

The SD bullpen has been excellent here at home and the Padres have hit well vs. southpaws all season. Catching Colorado still missing some key regulars, I expect Casher and the Padres to close out the series with an important win. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Its fair to say that the A's have owned the Pirates. Indeed, they're 11-0 all-time in the series, the best record in the majors, by one team against another in interleague play. I believe that this evening's all southpaw affair, on ESPN, will be a great spot for the Pirates to snap that skid.

For starters, the A's score more runs per game and hit better vs. right-handers than they do vs. left-handers. The opposite is true of the Pirates. They've got better offensive numbers against southpaws than they do vs. right-handers.

Liriano is pitching about as well as anyone right now. He's 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's 8-3 with a 2.20 ERA. That includes a 4-1 mark in five home starts. He's got a 2.05 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in those games - and hasn't given up a single home run in any of them.

On the other hand, Milone has a poor 4.84 ERA on the road, where he's given up nine home runs.

Milone is backed by an Oakland bullpen which has a respectable 3.46 ERA on the road. However, Liriano is backed by a Pittsburgh bullpen which has a 2.28 ERA here at home.

While those numbers have taken a bit of a hit the last few days, the Pirates remain a profitable 23-12 (+13.8) when off a loss. I expect them to bounce back and stop the bleeding. 10* main event

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I lost with the Padres yesterday. However, I'm willing to give them another shot today.

Stults figures to be happy to be back home. In seven starts here this season, he's 3-1 with a superb 2.85 ERA and 0.866 WHIP. The Padres are a profitable 6-1 (+5.2) when he's taken the mound here.

Stults also figures to be pleased to see the Rockies. His teams (SD + LA) are a combined 5-0 when he's started against Colorado. Stults' teams won those five games by a combined score of 48-27.

In this season's lone start against the Rockies, Stults allowed only one run through seven innings. SD won by a score of 4-2.

Granted, Chacin has been pitching very well of late too. In fact, some of you may recall that I won with the Rockies in his last start. That said, Chacin wasn't all that sharp in that game - walking three while allowing nine hits and four runs, in just 5 2/3 innings.

Chacin also hasn't been particularly sharp against the Padres this season. In two starts vs. San Diego, he's allowed seven runs in 10 1/3 innings. He escaped with a no decision against the Padres last month - but the Rockies lost that game by a score of 6-5.

The Padres are still healthier and they still have a much better home record than Colorado does on the road. I feel the price is fair and I look for them to finally bounce back and stop the bleeding. 10* personal favorite

10* Seattle. Analysis by/before 10am PST.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Despite both these sub-500 teams having struggled of late, they're both still very much alive in the NL West division. Off nine straight losses, the Padres are still within 7.5 games of the division lead. Off three straight losses, the Rockies are within 5.5 games. Playing at home, I expect it to be the Padres which "stop the bleeding" tonight.

These teams have similar overall numbers. Colorado is 42-47 while San Diego is 40-49. However, a closer look reveals that the Padres' 25-18 (+8) home record is far superior to the Rockies' 16-26 (-6.8) mark on the road.

While his overall numbers aren't that impressive, Volquez is in excellent current form. He allowed one run in six innings last time out. In his previous start, he allowed two runs in six innings. He didn't allow a home run in either of those games and had 14 Ks vs. just two walks.

Over his last three starts, Volquez has a 2.55 ERA and over his last five starts, he's 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA.

Chatwood came back to earth last time out. In five innings, he gave up six runs - five of them earned. During that 5-inning span, he gave up 11 hits, two of them home runs.

Volquez is backed by a SD bullpen which has a combined 2.76 ERA and 1.117 WHIP here at Petco. On the other hand, Colorado relievers have a 4.42 ERA (1.43 WHIP) on the road.

Colorado All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki remains on the disabled list, as does outfielder Dexter Fowler. Another Rockies All-Star, Carlos Gonzalez, had to leave loss because of a sprained right middle finger. His status is "questionable," at the moment. Even if he does play, he may be less than 100%.

The Padres are a respectable 8-7 (+3.7) the last 15 times that they allowed double-digits in runs in their previous game. During that stretch, they're also 25-13 (+7.6) as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. While they've had trouble against the Rockies this season, I expect them to step up and get it done tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. After winning Friday's series opener by a score of 6-2, the Red Sox appeared to be in good shape to also take last night's game. However, the Angels stunned them by scoring four runs in the bottom of the 9th to force extra innings. LA would go on to win it in the 11th. That victory figures to be a good momentum-builder for the Angels. While that type of devastating loss may have a deflating effect on the Sox.

Weaver's numbers (2-4, 3.79 ERA) aren't all that impressive yet. However, he's coming around now and when he's healthy, he's a lot better than this season's numbers suggest.

Keep in mind that Weaver was 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA last season, including 11-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.82 WHIP here at home.

Last time out, Weaver allowed one run through seven innings. He did exactly the same thing in his previous start.

Weaver noted: "I think the ball's coming out a lot better than it had been, and that's just a sign of the arm strength coming back. I feel strong again ... "

Admittedly, Lackey has been superb at home. However, he's only 2-4 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in eight road starts. His last start vs. the Angels resulted in an 11-0 loss, Lackey giving up eight runs in four innings.

I expect Weaver, who just became a father, to honor his new son (named after late teammate Nick Adenhart) by getting the better of Lackey, en route to another important win for the home team. 10* main event

I'm playing on Miami and St. Louis to finish UNDER the total. After a low-scoring (4-1) series opener, yesterday's game topped the total, a 5-4 final. I expect this afternoon's finale to more closely resemble Friday's game.

I successfully played on the "under" the last time that Fernandez took the mound, a game that finished with a score of 4-0. The Miami rookie sure did his part. Indeed, Fernandez tossed eight shutout innings, giving up just two hits. He recorded 10 Ks while walking only one.

Over his last three starts, Fernandez now has a superb 1.33 ERA and 0.738 WHIP. Not surprisingly, all three games fell below the total. Over his last six starts, he's 3-1 with a 1.34 ERA.

Lynn figures to be pretty happy to be back at St. Louis. Indeed, he's 9-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his last 11 regular-season home appearances - 10 starts. In eight starts here this season, he's only given up a single home run.

Visiting teams rarely hit well (.226 avg, 3.4 rpg entering the weekend) here and the Marlins are among the worst hitting teams in baseball. The worst, in fact.

Lynn has seen three straight starts dip below the total and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Tigers have the better overall record. However, the Indians' 24-15 mark at home is far superior to Detroit's 20-22 road record. I expect the Indians to have the advantage in this evening's series opener.

It was roughly a month ago that the Tigers swept the Indians. Since then, however, its been Cleveland which has played better baseball. Even with a big series at Toronto, the Tigers are only 11-12 since these teams last met. The Indians, on the other hand, are 15-8.

Masterson is off a complete-game shutout at Chicago last time out. Even better, he's 5-0 with a superb 1.49 ERA in his last six home starts.

On the other hand, Porcello is 0-3 with a terrible 8.82 ERA and 1.898 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's 2-4 with a 5.26 ERA in seven road starts.

The Indians have been very strong as home favorites in this range the past couple of seasons. Regardless of whether or not Cabrera plays, I expect the Tribe to have the edge. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series. However, I feel that the Rockies should be in good shape to avoid the sweep.

Chacin is in outstanding form for the Rockies. Indeed, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA his last four starts, a 0.76 ERA his last three.

Chacin hasn't surrendered a home run during that 28+ inning stretch and he hasn't allowed a single run over the last 15 innings. The Rockies have won his last four starts by a combined score of 24-7, each victory coming by a minimum of three runs.

Chacin, who is 6-5 with a 3.50 ERA against the Dodgers noted: "I've just been trying to throw strikes. I've been trying to attack the hitter and make them swing. That's what I've been doing the last three or four starts. Everything has been working out and my fastball has been strong."

I expect the Rockies to provide Chacin with some solid support. Capuano goes for the visitors and he's 1-6 with an awful 6.11 ERA his last eight starts vs. Colorado. His last two starts here saw him give up six runs in six innings and seven runs (4 earned) in 5 1/3 innings.

Last time out, Capuano gave up 10 hits and seven runs (5 earned) in just 3 2/3 innings. He took the "L" in a 16-1 LA loss. He's now 2-5 (team is 3-6/-3.6) in nine starts, sporting a 5.00 ERA.

While the Rockies are still without Tulowitzki, its possible that the Dodgers will be without Yaisel Puig. The NL player and rookie of the month for June left last night's game after running into the wall.

While the Dodgers have struggled as road underdogs in this range, the Rockies are 32-22 the past couple of seasons as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, going 9-4 (+3.7) their last 13 in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats, closing out the homestand with a much needed win. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on Toronto and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both topped the total. However, I'm expecting a well-pitched affair here.

Scherzer has been in terrific form all season long. He's currently delivered eight straight quality starts.

Scherzer has been at his best on the road. In seven road starts, Scherzer has a 2.08 ERA (compared to 4.01 at home) and 0.69 WHIP. Opposing batters have hit .149 against him away from Detroit.

In five career starts vs. the Jays, Scherzer is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Each of his last three starts vs. Toronto have fallen below the total.

While Scherzer has been better on the road, Johnson has been much better at home. On the road, he's got a terrible 9.26 ERA. However, at home, that ERA is a far more respectable 3.93.

It should also be noted that both Scherzer and Johnson have much better numbers in the evening than they do in the afternoon. Johnson's ERA is an ugly 8.66 in the day but a much better 3.23 at night. Meanwhile, Scherzer has a 3.96 ERA in the day but a stellar 2.85 mark in the evening. While the offense has stolen the show thus far, I won't be surprised to see a pitcher's duel here. 10* AL TOY

I'm playing on NY and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener produced 14 runs. I won't be surprised if we see less than half that many this evening.

Some of you will likely recall that I successfully backed the Twins in Deduno's last start. As tends to be the case when he pitches here, Deduno was very sharp. In seven innings, he allowed just one run on five hits. The Twins won by a score of 3-1.

Through seven starts, Deduno has given up only two home runs on the season. The UNDER is 5-2 when he's taken the mound.

Here's an excerpt of what I said of him prior to his win against the Royals. (You can now add a win to the home stats.)

"...If you followed my baseball program last season, you may recall me pointing out that Deduno was a much better pitcher at home.

Deduno finished last season with a 4-1 record at home, where he posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Opposing hitters batted only .163 against him here at Minnesota. However, on the road, he was 2-4 with a 5.71 ER and a 1.85 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .306. (In a similar number of innings, he allowed more than twice as many home runs on the road as he did at home.)

This season has started out the same way. Deduno is 1-2 with a 4.84 ERA on the road. However, he's already 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two home starts. He has yet to give up a home run in 14 innings here.

For his career, Deduno is now 6-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 home appearances, nine of them starts. Through 56+ home innings, he's given up only three home runs ... "

Like Deduno, Hughes has been an "under-machine" all season. Through his first 15 starts, the UNDER is 10-4-1.

Last time out, Hughes faced Texas. He allowed only two runs, on just five hits, through eight innings. However, he got no run support and lost 2-0. He's been better on the road too. In seven road starts, he's got a solid 3.73 ERA and stingy 1.220 WHIP.

It should also be noted that Hughes typically pitches well vs. the Twins. In five starts against Minnesota, he's got a 2.84 ERA and 1.105 WHIP, the UNDER going 2-1-2.

Yesterday notwithstanding, Yankee road games have been money all season. I expect things to return to "normal" here. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Tigers dropped yesterday's opener and have now lost three straight. I believe this will prove to be an excellent spot for them to bounce back.

While he hasn't always received much run support, Fister has been very solid this season. Last time out, although he didn't ultimately factor in the decision, he limited the Angels to a single run through seven complete innings.

In his last road start, Fister held the Twins to two runs, on only two hits, through 7 2/3 innings. He got the "W" in a 5-2 Tigers win. Including that victory, he's 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in eight road starts. He's only given up one home run in those eight games, compiling a 43/9 K/W ratio along the way.

Note that Fister has made two starts against the Jays since last season (one this year and one last) and that the Tigers won those two games by a combined score of 15-2. In this season's game, which was at Detroit, Fister allowed one run through eight innings, winning 11-1. In last season's game, which was here at Toronto, Fister also allowed one run in eight innings, striking out nine and winning by a score of 4-1.

While he'd previously been pitching well, Wang got a dose of reality last time out. He lasted only 1 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs. I feel that he was previously pitching "over his head" a little and that his confidence is going to be a little shaken.

The Jays played without Encarnacion and Lind yesterday. Its possible that could be the case for one or both players again today. Even if they play, its possible that they're less than 100%. Either way, note that Fister hasn't allowed a single Toronto hitter to go deep.

I successfully backed the Tigers in a similar role/spot at Tampa recently. They were off three straight losses and listed as road favorites of a similar size. They won that game by a score of 5-2. With Fister getting the better of Wang, I expect them to bounce back and stop the bleeding once again. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on SD and Miami to finish UNDER the total. The Padres are currently on an extended "over" streak. That streak looked like it was coming to an end yesterday. The O/U line was 7.5 and the score was 2-2 entering the bottom of the 9th inning before the Marlins hit a walk-off grand slam, winning 6-2. While that was a "bad beat" for under bettors, I expect the Padres "streak" to finally come to an end here.

The Marlins are the lowest-scoring team in the major-leagues. The Padres are scoring a little better than in recent years - but they're still not exactly an offensive juggernaut. They'll be up against a tough rookie here.

Fernandez, who will have the advantage of facing the Padres for the first time, has been fantastic at home for the Marlins. In seven starts here, he's 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 1.049 WHIP. He's only allowed three home runs total in those seven starts.

Fernandez's last start finished with a score of 4-2. His previous start finished with a score of 3-1. He's got a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP his last three starts, allowing 0 home runs in those games.

Marquis, who is 3-1 with a solid 3.49 ERA in five road starts, dominated the Marlins in his lone start against them this season. Indeed, he tossed eight shutout innings en route to 1-0 victory.

I expect a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the number. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on Philadelphia and LA to finish UNDER the total. The Phillies have been on an extended "over" streak recently. I expect it to come to an end this evening.

While the Phillies did so yesterday, neither team has hit very well vs. southpaws on the season. The hitters will be up against a couple of good ones here.

Lee checks in with a 9-2 record to go along with a 2.51 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He's got 105 Ks vs. only 18 walks. Last time out, he allowed two runs through eight innings. That was also his stat-line in his previous start.

Lee has done his best work away from Philadelphia too. In 10 road starts, he's 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.867 WHIP. In 75 road innings, he's only given up a single home run. Not surprisingly, seven of those 10 games stayed below the total.

Ryu has also been sharp. For the season, he's 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.224 WHIP. While Lee has thrived on the road, Ryu has been better at home. In eight starts here at LA, he's 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 1.134 WHIP. In 54 2/3 road innings, he's served up only three home runs, striking out 43 while walking 14.

While RYU will have the advantage of starting against the Phillies for the first time, Lee is 3-1 with a remarkable 0.78 ERA and 0.739 WHP vs. the Dodgers. I expect a well pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the number. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on COLORADO. Both these teams could really use a victory. I expect the Rockies to be the team which breaks through with one.

While he was beaten by the Giants last month, Chacin is currently in excellent form. He's 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.016 WHIP. Averaging 6.9 innings in those three starts, he didn't give up a home run in any of them. The Rockies won those three games by a combined score of 20-6.

I won with the Giants' in Zito's last start. However, that was at San Francisco - where he's been great - and it was also against the Marlins. Zito hasn't been nearly as good on the road. In fact, he's been terrible. Also, instead of facing the light-hitting Marlins, he'll be facing a Rockies lineup which is hitting .286, while averaging 5.5 runs per game here at Colorado.

In five road starts this season, Zito is 0-4 with an 11.28 ERA and 2.506 WHIP. He's averaged just 4.5 innings in those games, the Giants losing all five of them. He's given up five or more earned runs in four of his five road starts, giving up eight or more in two of them.

Zito commented: "At home, I've caught some breaks and kept stuff done in the zone and I haven't on the road. I've felt pretty good in some of these starts out on the road, but I just haven't been able to get people out."

True, Zito does have strong overall career numbers vs. the Rockies. However, he didn't fare too well his last start here at Coors, surrendering five runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings.

While the Giants have fared well here over the years, the Rockies have beaten them the last three games here. They've been excellent as home favorites in this range and I look for them to start the series with a win. 9* NL Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Twins had a disappointing road trip. They're back home now though and I feel that they've got an excellent shot at starting off the homestand with a victory.

The Royals have taken five of six meetings so far this season. All six of those games were played at KC though. The Twins have had much better success as a host in the series. They're 13-7 their last 20 when facing the Royals here at Minnesota.

Note that while the Royals average 3.9 runs per game on the season. The Twins average 4.2, including 4.6 at home.

If you followed my baseball program last season, you may recall me pointing out that Deduno was a much better pitcher at home.

Deduno finished last season with a 4-1 record at home, where he posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Opposing hitters batted only .163 against him here at Minnesota. However, on the road, he was 2-4 with a 5.71 ER and a 1.85 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .306. (In a similar number of innings, he allowed more than twice as many home runs on the road as he did at home.)

This season has started out the same way. Deduno is 1-2 with a 4.84 ERA on the road. However, he's already 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two home starts. He has yet to give up a home run in 14 innings here.

For his career, Deduno is now 6-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 home appearances, nine of them starts. Through 56+ home innings, he's given up only three home runs.

Guthrie is just 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA on the season and he's currently in bad form. After getting rocked last time out, he now has an ugly 6.90 ERA and 1.788 WHIP his last three starts. He's always been "homer-prone" and has already given up 19 home runs, including a whopping 13 in eight road starts, a span of 50 innings.

True, Guthrie has fared well (3.36 career ERA) vs. the Twins. However, Deduno has been even better against the Royals. In two starts against them, he's 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA. I'm backing the Twins. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Angels have taken the first two games of this series. However, I expect the Tigers to avoid the sweep this afternoon.

Neither starter was great last time out. However, Fister had been off some strong starts before that while Weaver has been struggling for some time. (Weaver did look good right after coming off the disabled list but that was short-lived.)

Looking at the season results and Fister is 6-5 with a solid 3.66 ERA and 1.208 WHIP. On the other hand, Weaver is 1-4 with a 4.65 ERA.

Fister has 76 K's against only 15 walks, permitting a mere four home runs. In less than half the innings, Weaver has 30Ks vs. 12 walks, already giving up six home runs.

Fister has pitched well vs. the Angels, much better than Weaver has fared vs. the Tigers.

Weaver is 3-4 in nine starts against the Tigers with a 5.47 ERA - his worst against any American League team. On the other hand, Fister has a 3.05 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in eight starts vs. the Angels. He's got a 0.60 ERA his last two starts against the Angels, including a 7-2 win in his last home start against them. Fister allowed just two hits and one run through eight innings in that game, striking out 10.

The Tigers still average more than a run extra per game here than the Angels do on the road. I expect them to avoid the season series sweep, closing out their homestand with a win. 9* Top Getaway Day

I'm playing on Texas and NY to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Rangers when Darvish and Kuroda previously squared off against each other. Texas won that 4/24/2012 game by a score of 2-0. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair here.

Both Darvish and Kuroda are enjoying strong seasons. Darvish checks in at 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA. Darvish, who struck out 10 Yankees in last year's shutout win, currently leads the majors in strikeouts. Kuroda has also pitched well. He's 7-5 with a 2.78 ERA.

Kuroda, who has seen the UNDER go 9-4-2 on the season, has been at his best here at home. In seven home starts, he's got a stellar 2.08 ERA and 1.039 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Darvish has been at his best on the road. In six road starts, he's 3-1 with an excellent 2.55 ERA and an outstanding 0.756 WHIP. Averaging over seven innings in those starts, he's allowed only three home runs in 42+ innings, striking out a whopping 62 while walking just nine.

While Darvish has a 0.00 ERA vs. NY, Kuroda has a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP vs. Texas. All three of his starts vs. the Rangers have fallen below the total. They had scores of 3-0, 2-0 and 6-0.

While the Yanks have seen the UNDER go 12-8-1 in June, the Rangers have seen the UNDER go 15-6-1 on the month, a combined 27-14-1 mark. I expect more of the same this evening. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Yesterday's big win stretched the Jays' current winning run to 11 games. At a venue where they typically struggle, I expect that impressive streak to come to an end this evening.

While the Rays have endured some tough times the past couple of weeks, they did get back on track with a win at Yankee Stadium yesterday. That gives them some positive momentum.

Winning streak or not, Tampa should be happy to see the Jays come to town.

The Rays are 13-6 their last 19 against Toronto. When hosting the Jays, they're 14-4 the last 18. It doesn't help the Jays that their rotation has an ugly 6.97 ERA in seven games against Tampa this season.

Admittedly, Hellickson's been a bit inconsistent overall. True, he did get roughed up two starts ago. However, its also true that he bounced back with a strong effort last time out, that he's 5-3 on the season and that he tends to pitch well against the Jays.

Hellickson has been sharp in two of his last three starts and has allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last six starts. He hasn't walked a single batter in any of his last four starts and he only gave up a single home run in those four games. (He won three of those games and had a 2.65 ERA in the wins.) In his most recent start against the Jays, he allowed two runs, on just four hits, through eight innings.

Hellickson was quoted as saying he was feeling good, saying: "I'm right where I want to be ... "

Admittedly, Rogers has been pitching well of late. However, before getting too carried away, lets keep in mind that he's been around for several years now and that he has a career 5.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .293 against him. He's still only made a couple of road starts so far this season and I won't be surprised if he comes back to earth here.

Toronto may be swinging hot bats at the moment but the Jays still average 4.2 runs per game on the road - the Rays average five at home.

While the Jays are 5-12 (-6.3) when playing a road game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5, the Rays are 10-6 (+2) when playing a home game with an O/U line of eight or 8.5. I have a feeling that the streak ends tonight. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Pirates have taken the first two games of the series. I expect the Angels to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon.

With a 1-10 record, many will be hesitant to back the Angels with Blanton on the mound. However, a closer look reveals that four of his last five starts have been on the "quality" variety. Plus, the "anti-Blanton sentiment" has worked in our favor by keeping this price down.

Last time out, Blanton allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings, striking out 11. In his previous home start, he allowed two runs in eight innings, also striking out 11. In that game, he gave up just three hits without walking a batter.

Since coming over to the Angels, Blanton has made 12 home starts. Including his last two gems here, he's allowed four earned runs or less in 10 of 12 starts here as an Angel. In seven of those 12, he allowed three or less. In other words, despite this season's poor overall record, he's actually been very consistent at home, ever since coming over here.

While Blanton hasn't gotten much run support of late, I expect him to get some here. Morton has still only made a couple of starts since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Those were his only two starts in the last 12 months and he didn't go more than 5.3 innings in either.

The Angels should be happy that this is a day game. They're 14-7 (+5.6) in day games this season, outscoring opponents by an average score of 5.7 to 3.7.

Prior to this series, the Angels had won six of eight and were starting to feel good about themselves. Knowing they head out on the road after this, beginning with a tough 3-game set at Detroit, makes avoiding the sweep that much more imperative. I expect them to take care of business. 10* IL GOY

I'm playing on Seattle on the RUN-LINE ( +1.5 Runs.)

With Oakland favored on the money-line, we're able to get the Mariners at +1.5 runs at what I believe is a very reasonable price. While I do believe that the M's have an excellent shot at winning this game "outright," I don't mind laying the short price to improve my chances by adding an extra 1.5 runs.

After all, with an O/U line of less than eight, every run figures to be important. Also, keep in mind that prior to last night, the M's had seen three straight games decided by a single run. (Note that last night's game was also a 1-run affair until the A's scored two in the 9th.)

Harang figures to be happy to be back home. In his last start here, he tossed a complete game 2-hit shutout. He had 10 K's without walking a batter.

I'm not sold on Straily. He gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings last time out and has a 5.30 ERA in six road starts.

While the A's haven't seen Harang yet this season, the M's already beat up on Straily here last month. Seattle won 6-3, Straily gave up all six runs, while lasting only five innings.

Add it up and I expect at least a "cover" for the home team. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on DETROIT. After back to back losses vs. Baltimore, the Tigers figure to be happy to see the Red Sox come to town. I expect them to bounce back.

Alvarez pitched very well in a 6/9 start vs. Cleveland, striking out seven (1 walk) in six innings while allowing a single run. He'll have the advantage of facing the Red Sox for the first time.

Despite dominating, Alvarez was sent back down to Triple-A Toledo. That was a pre-determined decision though and, while most young pitchers do experience some growing pains, all signs indicate that Alvarez will prove to be the real deal.

When he was called up the last time, Alvarez led the International League with 76 strikeouts and a 2.42 ERA.

Prior to his debut start, Leyland said this of Alvarez: "He's been about the best pitcher in the International League."

Lackey is 2-1 with a stellar 1.04 ERA in four starts at Fenway this season. However, he's 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA in seven road starts.

A closer look shows that Lackey is also 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA when pitching during the day but only 1-4 with a 3.73 ERA in the evening.

Lackey gave up five runs each of the last two times that he faced the Tigers. Detroit won those games by scores of 5-1 and 5-3.

The Tigers swept the Sox here last season and have won four straight as a host in the series overall. I expect more of the same Thursday. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Both these teams bounced back from a Saturday loss with a win yesterday. Both are playing very well, each are hot on the heels of the division-leading Cardinals. The Reds' 24-12 home record is far superior to the Pirates' 16-15 road mark though. With this game being played at Cincinnati, I believe the current price on the Reds is very fair.

While the Pirates average 3.8 runs per game on the road. The Reds average 4.9 here at home.

Good pitching matchup here, a "rematch" from a few weeks ago. Liriano has been stingy for the Pirates. Leake has been every bit as good for the Reds though. Having allowed just five earned runs in his last 40 innings, I believe he's currently in better form.

Liriano allowed four runs in six innings last time out, giving up eight hits and walking three. He struck out just two. While it didn't cost him, note that Liriano walked five batters two starts ago. He's got a stingy 2.60 ERA in three road starts but he's averaging less than six innings in those starts and a 1.43 WHIP shows that he's been allowing some baserunners.

Leake checks in with a 1.89 ERA his last three. Going back further finds him at 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA his last six starts. For the season, he's 6-3 with a 2.75 ERA. Last time out, he allowed one run through eight complete innings. He gave up just three hits and one walk, striking out six. He averages 6.6 innings at home, where he has a 1.119 WHIP.

While they were both good, Leake got the better of Liriano when these teams met at Pittsburgh on 6/1. With this game at Cincy, I expect the Reds to come out on top once again. 10* annihilator

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Jays have taken the first three games of this series. I fully expect the Rangers to bounce back and avoid the sweep this afternoon though.

Holland doesn't have Cy Young type numbers. However, he is 5-3 with a solid 3.11 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. In 84 innings, he's struck out 80, walking only 22. He's also given up just four home runs on the season and has allowed four earned runs or less in nine straight games.

A closer look reveals that Holland has been harder to hit when pitching during the day than at night. In three daytime starts, Holland has a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting only .203 against him during the day, as compared to .289 at night.

Holland, 3-1 in five career starts vs. the Jays, typically receives good run support when facing Toronto. In his five starts against the Jays, the Rangers have provided him with 42 combined runs, better than eight per game. Not surprisingly, Texas won four of those games.

In Holland's last two starts against the Jays, he allowed just two earned runs in 16 1/3 innings, winning by a combined score of 17-3!

I expect Holland to again receive solid run support. Wang, who has a 5.67 career ERA vs. Texas, hasn't been around for some time for a reason. He made 10 appearances (5 starts) in 2012 and had a terrible 6.68 ERA and 2.01 WHIP to show for it. Opposing batters hit .376 against him last season. He's made one start for the Jays and he gave up 10 hits (2 hrs) and three walks, en route to allowing five runs.

With an edge on the mound, I expect the Rangers to bounce back with a much needed victory. 8* personal favorite

I'm playing on TB and KC to finish UNDER the number. The first two games of this series have both topped the total. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game this afternoon.

While he wasn't at his best last time out, Cobb is having an excellent season. He's 6-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.135 WHIP. At home, where Cobb is 4-0, those numbers dip to 2.91 and 1.058. In 46 1/3 innings here, Cobb has 47 Ks vs. only 12 walks.

Guthrie has also been very solid so far this season. Through 13 starts, he's 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA. He's also been at his best lately. In fact, he's 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA his last three starts, all of which stayed below the number.

Note that Guthrie's ERA dips to 3.15 (1.05 WHIP) during his three daytime starts. He was also much better during the day last season and that's been the case for his entire career. Likewise, Cobb has better career stats during the day than he does at night.

As a team, the Rays are hitting only .236 in day games. The Royals are hitting .266 in their afternoon games but still only averaging 3.7 runs. Their opponents have only scored three against them (while hitting .245) in day games though. That's led to the UNDER going a profitable 17-6 when they've played during the afternoon. In what should be a fairly well-pitched affair, I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. 10* best bet

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Royals are off an excellent homestand. They even beat the Tigers when Verlander was on the mound, yesterday afternoon. They're still only 13-17 on the road though, not nearly as good as the Rays are here at Tampa. They've also really struggled here at Tampa. I expect it to be the Rays which have the edge in this evening's series opener.

The Rays are 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. That includes a 7-1 mark the last eight meetings here.

They're also 2-0 when Hellickson has faced the Royals here, winning 5-1 in 2012 and 2-1 in 2011. Hellickson allowed just two runs in 14 1/3 innings in those two games, striking out 13 along the way.

Overall, the Rays are 7-1 in Hellickson's last eight home starts. Hellickson allowed 0 earned runs in four of those eight starts, most recently blanking Baltimore through six complete innings. The Rays won 8-0.

Going back further reveals that Hellickson has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 20 home starts.

The Royals are just 1-6 in Santana's last seven starts and 1-4 in his five road starts overall.

Throw in the fact that Santana is 2-5 (teams are 2-7) with a terrible 6.84 ERA in nine starts at Tropicana - where Tampa hitters have batted .321 against him here - and all signs point to a victory for the home team. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Detroit and KC to finish UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a pitcher's duel yesterday, Detroit winning 3-2. The previous day, the shoe was on the other foot. KC won by an identical 3-2 margin. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair this afternoon.

Shields, who has dominated Detroit over his career, has been a cash cow for "under" bettors all season. His last two starts have had scores of 4-2 and 4-1. Shields went seven innings in each of those games, allowing just three runs over the 14 combined innings. For the season, the UNDER is now 9-4 in his 13 starts, Shields compiling a 2.81 ERA and 1.097 WHIP.

Shields, 5-1 vs. Detroit noted: "Whenever you have some success against a team, you always have some confidence ..."

Shields is backed by a KC bullpen that has a combined 2.36 ERA here.

Admittedly, Verlander hasn't been quite his usual self this season. He's "only" 8-4 with a 3.71 ERA. However, he's still a pitcher capable of dominating every time he steps on the mound.

The Royals know all about Verander's capabilities. Indeed, Verlander is 15-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 24 starts against them. In 14 starts here at Kauffman Stadium, his ERA dips to 2.49.

The UNDER is now 10-2 in KC's last 12 games. It should be mentioned that 16 of the Royals' 22 day games have also dipped below the number, those games averaging just 6.8 combined runs.

Given the pitching matchup - and the history of success both starters have enjoyed against today's opponent - I believe the number is generous. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Yankees have taken two of the first three in the series. With their ace on the mound, I expect the Mariners to salvage the series split.

Hernandez checks in with a 7-4 record to go along with a stellar 2.58 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. He averages seven innings per start and has 95 Ks (17 walks) in 90 innings. That includes a 41/5 K/W ratio here at Seattle.

While most pitchers dread facing the Yankees, King Felix is 7-2 with a 2.14 ERA over his last 11 starts against them.

Phelps was sharp last time out, despite walking four batters. However, he got hammered in his previous start and he's not in the same class as Hernandez.

While it might be tempting to want to back the Yankees as an underdog, note that NY is only 6-15 (-6.8) the past couple of seasons, as a road underdog in the +125 to +150 range.

Overall, these teams are now 3-3 against each other. With Hernandez doing his thing, I expect the M's to take the season series for the first time since 2002. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. With yesterday's loss, the Royals have now dropped 11 straight at home. Enough is enough. I expect them to finally stop the bleeding today.

Walters may be 2-0. However, he's got a mediocre 4.50 ERA and a poor 1.667 WHIP. In 12 innings pitched, he's already given up 18 hits.

By comparison, Guthrie has only allowed 21 hits in 29 2/3 home innings. He's 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 0.91 WHIP here. Last time out, he limited the Cards to two runs through six innings, striking out six and walking one. He didn't factor in the decision but the Royals win 4-2.

Guthrie, who already beat the Twins back in April, is 5-2 with a solid 3.57 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in eight starts. vs. Minnesota.

Walters got rocked in his lone start vs. the Royals. He lost 10-5, compiling a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP along the way.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Royals have still won four of their last five games, when hosting the Twins. This season, they're still 9-7 vs. divisional opponents. I expect them to bounce back. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on Seattle and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. After a 4-2 Seattle win in the opener, the bats came to life yesterday, the Mariners winning by a score of 7-4. I expect this afternoon's game to more closely resemble the opener.

Iwakuma is off a gem last time out and is having a superb season overall. He tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings en route to earning a 3-0 victory. For the season, he's 6-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.871 WHIP. In five home starts, he's 2-0 with an outstanding 1.34 ERA and 0.594 WHIP.

In 33 2/3 innings here, an average of 6 2/3 per start, Iwakuma has 33 K's vs. only two walks. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-1-1 when he's taken the mound here.

Axelrod also pitched well last time out. Like Iwakuma, he was involved in a game which finished with a score of 3-0. Through seven complete innings, Axelrod allowed two runs on just four hits. He had seven K's and didn't walk a batter.

Axelrod faced the M's exactly two months ago. He allowed just one unearned run, on only three hits.

The Sox have now lost eight straight. They're batting below the Mendoza Line during that stretch, connecting at a mere .197 clip.

Excluding "pushes," the Sox have seen the UNDER go 10-7 in day games. The UNDER is now 68-50 in their afternoon games the past few seasons. During that stretch, the M's have seen the UNDER go 65-48 when playing during the day. This season, both Chicago and Seattle are hitting .235 or less in the day (.235 and .227) both averaging 3.7 runs or less.

Given Iwakuma's dominance here and given Chicago's current skid, the Mariners are fairly heavily favored. Therefore, its worth mentioning that the UNDER is 15-3 the past couple of seasons when the Sox were underdogs in the 150 to 175 range. I expect those stats to improve here. 10*

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully played against the Brewers yesterday. That was on the road against Cliff Lee though. Back home and with a far more favorable matchup, I believe they're providing us with very fair value today.

While this season certainly hasn't gotten off to a great start, the Brewers are still an outstanding 123-75 (+26.8) at home the past few seasons.

During the same stretch, the A's are 91-105 away from Oakland. That includes a 15-25 mark when the A's played a road game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5 and a 19-28 (-11.8) mark when the A's played a road game with a money-line that ranged from +100 to -125.

Estrada took the loss last time out. However, a closer look shows that he was actually pretty solid. Through seven complete innings, he allowed four runs. He had five K's and didn't walk a single batter.

In his most recent home start, Estrada allowed just four hits and one run, also lasting seven complete innings, this time winning 2-1. He had 8 Ks and didnt walk a batter.

On the other hand, Millone gave up four runs in five innings in his last start, walking three and serving up two home runs. In his previous start, Millone gave up five runs on eight hits, again giving up two home runs.

The Brewers haven't hosted the A's in many years. Catching the A's off a trip from out West, I expect the Brewers to jump out to a 1-0 series lead, stopping the bleeding here at home with a much needed victory. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Atlanta and Washington to finish UNDER the total. With yesterday's 3-2 victory, the Nationals have seen four of their five visits here this season stay below the total. I expect another well-pitched affair here.

Gonzalez wasn't that good in his last home outing. However, he allowed just one run on only four hits in his last road start, lasting 7 1/3 innings.

Hudson wasn't that good in his last road start. However, he's 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five home starts.

Admittedly, Gonzalez didn't fare too well here earlier this season. However, he did allow less than three earned runs in two of his three starts here last season.

As for Hudson, he's 16-5 with a stellar 2.55 ERA and 1.107 WHIP vs. the Nats. He's faced them twice this season and allowed just one run in each start, going seven complete innings each time. Facing a Washington lineup which averages 3.2 runs per game (.216 batting average) on the road, he should be poised for another big effort. All things considered, I believe the number is very fair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on COLORADO. I'm 4-0 playing on/against the Dodgers the past four days, successfully playing on them twice and against them twice. I believe that this afternoon should be a good spot to go against them.

I successfully played against the Rockies in Chacin's last start - they lost 3-2 at Houston. However, Chacin pitched very well in that game, as he allowed just two runs on five hit, in seven innings, striking out nine. That was preceded by a quality start vs. Arizona, a game in which he allowed only three hits in 6 1/3 innings.

On the other hand, Greinke has been roughed up in back to back starts. Last time out, he gave up six runs (4 earned) and 10 hits, lasting just four innings. In his previous start, Greinke also went just four innings, allowing five runs on nine hits. Over that 2-game stretch, he's had only three K's, walking four. Clearly, he hasn't been "the Greinke of old" in those games, compiling a 10.13 ERA.

In five starts vs. the Rockies, Greinke's ERA is above five. Meanwhile, while he didn't fare too well in his lone start against them last season, Chacin has a solid 3.16 ERA in 11 starts vs. the Dodgers.

The Rockies are averaging 5.2 runs per game here, batting .276. Their relievers have a combined 2.60 ERA and 1.109 WHIP here.

On the other hand, the Dodgers' relievers have a combined 4.81 ERA and 1.445 WHIP on the road. The Dodgers are scoring 3.7 runs per game on the road, 3.5 overall. They'll be without Kemp again here.

The Rockies are 30-19 (+4.3) their last 49 as home favorites in the 125 to 150 range, going 7-1 (+5.8) their last eight in that situation. They're also 4-1 (+3.6) the last five times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. I believe that the price is fair and I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on San Diego and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed since it first came out. I believe we're getting very fair value.

The Jays haven't hit well away from Toronto. They're averaging 3.9 runs per game on the road, hitting .234.

The Padres average 3.9 runs per game here at Petco Park, allowing 4.2.

While Marquis won't be winning the Cy Young any time soon, he does have a 6-2 record to go along with a respectable 3.70 ERA. In his last start here, he allowed only one earned run and just three hits, through six complete innings.

Jenkins, who has a respectable 3.60 ERA through two starts, will have the advantage of facing the Padres for the first time. The former first round pick should also benefit from pitching on regular rest, after going 13 days in between his previous starts.

Toronto relievers have a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.308 WHIP on the road. San Diego relievers have an excellent 2.56 ERA and 1.058 WHIP here at San Diego.

I look for a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* best bet

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. I successfully played against the Dodgers each of the last two days, after successfully playing on them the day before that. With what should be a significant edge on the mound, I believe this will be another good "play on" spot.

What more can you say about Kershaw? Through 11 starts, he Dodgers' ace has a 1.68 ERA and 0.871 WHIP.

In his last road start, Kershaw went the distance, allowing three hits and one run.

In his most recent start vs. the Rockies, Kershaw tossed eight shutout innings, striking out 10. The Dodgers won 8-0.

On the other hand, Garland is 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.937 WHIP his last three starts, the Rockies losing by a combined score of 18-7.

For the season, Garland is 3-6 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.614 WHIP.

All things considered, I feel the price on Kershaw and the Dodgers is reasonable. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The A's have taken the first three games of this series, both in Oakland and last night's here at San Francisco. I expect the Giants to have the edge this afternoon though.

Zito gets the call and he's been unbeatable here at home. Literally. In six starts he's 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA. The Giants were 6-0 (+6.3) in those games.

Griffin, on the other hand, is 3-2 with a 4.31 ERA on the road.

Its true that Zito's career stats against the A's are too impressive. However, he is 2-0 his last two starts against them.

While the A's are 8-11 (-4) in day games, the Giants are 12-10. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Giants have been outstanding in home games with a line in the +100 to -125 range in recent seasons. I see them bouncing back here. 10* best bet

I'm playing on Milwaukee and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. Both games at Milwaukee finished above the number. With the "series" shifting to Minnesota, I expect a lower-scoring affair this evening.

Estrada gets the call for the visitors and he was very sharp last time out. Through seven innings, he allowed just four hits and one run. He had eight K's and didn't walk a single batter. The Brewers won that game by a score of 2-1.

While that was at home, Estrada has done his best work on the road. In five road starts, three of which stayed below the total, he's got a very solid 3.09 ERA and 1.125 WHIP.

Deduno did not pitch well last time out, which was his season debut. That was at Detroit though vs. a powerful Tigers lineup. If you remember from last season, Deduno was much better when pitching at home.

Last season, Deduno was 2-4 with a 5.71 ERA in eight road starts. Opposing batters hit .306 against him. He allowed seven home runs and he had more walks than K's.

However, when pitching at home, Deduno was 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. He allowed only three home runs in seven games here, opposing batters hitting a mere .163 against him. He allowed three earned runs or less in six of seven starts here and four in the other one.

Deduno is backed by a Minnesota bullpen which has a 2.99 ERA and 1.173 WHIP on the season.

The Brewers don't hit well away from Milwaukee. They're averaging just 3.5 runs on the road, batting just .240 in those games. Their bullpen has been solid on the road though. Milwaukee relievers have a combined 2.81 ERA and 1.162 WHIP away from home.

While many will likely be expecting another "slug-fest," I expect a relatively well-pitched affair. 10* best bet

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Indians are stuck in a losing streak. With Masterson on the hill and returning home, I expect them to turn things around today.

Masterson didn't fare too well at Fenway last time out. However, he's having a great season and he's been dominant at home. In his last start here, Masterson struck out 11 Mariners through seven shutout innings, en route to a 6-0 win. In his previous start, Masterson tossed a complete-game shutout vs. the Yankees, en route to a 1-0 victory.

For the season, Masterson is 4-1 (Clev is 5-1) with a 2.47 ERA and 1.053 WHIP here at Cleveland. In 43 2/3 innings here, an average of better than seven per start, he's got 44 K's vs. just 11 walks. During that entire time, he's surrendered just a single home run.

Arroyo, on the other hand, is 1-3 with a 3.71 ERA in four road starts.

Arroyo got rocked by the Indians in each of the last few seasons. Last year, he lasted just four innings against the Tribe, giving up five runs and losing 8-1. The previous season, he was worse. In 4 2/3 innings, he gave up eight runs, losing 8-2. The year before? He allowed four runs in five innings, getting beaten 5-3. Over that 13 2/3 inning stretch, he's gone 0-3 and allowed as many home runs (7) as he has strikeouts!

Masterson opposed Arroyo each of the past two seasons. While Arroyo was getting hammered, he was dominating. Through 17 innings, he allowed only two runs and just one of them was earned. He had 14 Ks and walked a single batter.

The Indians average 4.8 runs per game here, compared to Cincinnati's 4.2 on the road. The Indians relievers have an ERA of 3.83 here while the Reds' relievers have a 4.43 mark away from Cincy. All things considered, I believe that this price is more than fair. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Both teams are struggling. Both starters are struggling. Both lineups are struggling. I believe the Brewers currently bring more to the table though and I look for them to be the team which breaks through with a victory here.

While the Brewers have had serious trouble vs. southpaws, they've quietly gone a respectable 15-12 (+3.1) vs. right-handed starters, moving to +16.2 (vs. the money-line) vs. right-handers the past few seasons.

This season, Milwaukee is averaging 4.7 runs vs. right-handed starters.

On the other hand, the Twins have been terrible vs. right-handers. Even before yesterday's 6-1 loss, they were averaging 4.1 runs vs. right-handed starters, hitting .239. They're 16-24 vs. right-handers on the season, dropping -37.9 units (vs. the moneyline) vs. right-handers the past few seasons.

While the Brewers are quite familiar with Correia, the Twins will be seeing Peralta for the first time.

The Brewers are still 123-73 here the past few seasons, banking nearly 30 net units of profit. That includes a 4-2 (+0.9) mark against the Twins here. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing HOUSTON on the run-line (+1.5 runs). With the Rockies favored fairly heavily on the money-line, we're able to get the Astros at an excellent price on the run-line. Considering that I expect them to have an edge on the mound, I believe that's providing us with excellent value.

Norris has been a bright spot for the Astros, at least here at Houston. In six home starts, he's 3-1 with a stellar 1.93 ERA. While he has had to deal with a bit of stiffness in his back lately, he still tossed six shutout innings last time out.

Speaking of back problems ...

Chacin got off to a hot start this season. However, he then missed a few starts with a back injury and he's been terrible ever since. In fact, since returning to the rotation, he's 0-3 with a 6.85 ERA in four outings.

With yesterday's loss, the Rockies are now a dismal 44-80 (-43.2) in day games the past few seasons.

The Astros are 10-8 in Norris' last 18 home starts. Considering that four of the losses came by a single run, they'd be 14-4 his last 18 here, if getting +1.5 runs each time.

The Astros have won nine of 14 over the Rockies at Minute Maid Park. I expect AT LEAST a "cover" this afternoon. 10* best bet

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals are starting to roll again and I expect them to have the advantage in the opener of the "Beltway Series."

While the Nats, who have had at least 10 hits in three straight games, are off a big win, the O's are off a devastating loss. Baltimore closer Jim Johnson allowed four runs in the ninth inning yesterday, blowing his fourth save in his last five tries.

Johnson noted: "We should be getting on the plane with three wins here, but I can't hang my head too long. It's going to hurt for a little bit, and it should."

Conversely, Washington shortstop Ian Desmond noted: "Things are starting to unfold. We're starting to play the game better."

Today's two starters are in vastly different form right now. Gonzalez has a superb 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP his last three starts. On the other hand, Hammel has a terrible 8.80 ERA and 1.956 WHIP his last three.

For the season, Hammel has a very good record but hasn't pitched that well. Indeed, he's 6-2 but has a 5.37 ERA and a 1.526 WHIP.

Gonzalez doesn't have the same record but his overall numbers have been much better - and the Nats are still 7-3 (+3.4) when he takes the mound. In five home starts, Gonzalez has a 2.61 ERA and 0.839 WHIP.

I expect Gonzalez to continue to roll and for Hammel's good fortune to come to an end. *10

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Today's starters, Rodriguez and Gallardo, have already opposed each other twice this season. In each case, the the pitcher who was in his home park came away with the victory. I expect that to be the case again here.

The most recent meeting between these starters came on 5/15. Both pitched well. Through six innings, Gallardo gave up only three hits and two runs. Rodriquez outlasted and out-dueled him though, allowing six hits but only one run, through seven innings. The Pirates won by a score of 3-1.

The game here at Milwaukee was a different story though, although Gallardo's stat-line was pretty similar. Once again, Gallardo allowed just three hits, this time lasting seven innings. Once again, he allowed only two runs - however, this time, only one of them was earned.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, got rocked in the game at Miwaukee. In that 4/29 contest, he allowed seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. Gallgardo and the Brewers came away with a 10-4 win.

Rodriguez getting rocked here is nothing new. He's 3-8 with a 6.46 ERA in 13 starts at Miller Park. His teams (Pitt and Houston) are 2-10 his last 12 starts here.

The Pirates know all about how tough Gallardo can be. They've faced him 16 times and they've only won two of those games. Both the wins came at Pittsburgh too. They're 0-9 against Gallardo here at Milwaukee. Gallardo is personally 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in those games, allowing three earned runs or less in eight of nine.

Admittedly, the Brewers aren't scoring many runs these days. However, I agree with manager Ron Roenicke when he says: "That's still a good offense we're putting out there. I look at the lineup, right it down every day and when you look at it and you look at some of the numbers that we're putting up, I expect us to score runs. It's puzzling."

The fact that the Brewers (and Gallardo) have struggled lately has kept this price very reasonable. In fact, its far lower than the price on any Gallardo home start vs the Pirates, prior to this year.

Given Gallardo's record against the Pirates here - and Rodriguez's struggles here at Miller Park, I'm going with the home team to take this afternoon's rubber game. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on TAMPA. Some may be surprised to see the Rays favored over the Yankees when Sabathia is on the mound. However, I believe the Rays are favored for good reason and I expect them to bounce back with a much needed win.

Sabathia is 4-3 with a respectable 3.43 ERA and 1.325 WHIP on the season. However, Cobb is 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. They both average 6.6 innings per start and both have a very similar K/W ratio. (Sabathia has 56Ks vs. 15 walks. Cobb has 54 K's vs. 14 walks. )

When you look at the home/road stats, Cobb has the edge though. He's 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in five starts here. Sabathia is 1-1 with a 3.70 ERA in four road starts.

Cobb is also in much better form. He allowed just three hits and one run through 6 1/3 innings last time out. That was his exact stat-line in his previous start, too. The Rays are now 8-2 in his last 10 home starts. Cobb has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 12 straight here.

On the other hand, Sabathia gave up 11 hits and four runs last time out and 10 hits and three runs (two earned) in his previous start. That's a lot of hits in back-to-back starts, 21 as compared to Cobb's six.

One might expect New York to have the better hitting lineup. However, the Yanks remain very banged-up at the moment and the Rays actually have the offensive edge. Tampa averages 4.8 runs, hitting .258. The Yankees average only 4.3 runs, hitting a mere .246.

The Yankees may have taken the first two games of this series but this is rarely a favorable venue for them. Indeed, the Rays are still 15-8 against NY here the past few seasons.

The Rays are also an outstanding 19-8 (+12.1) the past few seasons, after losing their previous three games. They typically fare well as home favorites in this range and I look for them to get it done today. 10*

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Rockies are red hot right now and they took yesterday's series opener by a score of 5-0. The Rockies also beat the Giants by a 5-0 score when these same two pitchers opposed each other last week. I expect Zito and the Giants to return the favor this afternoon.

Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Giants have dominated the Rockies here. They're still 17-5 the last 22 as a host vs Colorado.

Speaking of dominating here, Zito is 3-0 with a 0.55 ERA in five starts here this season. Not surprisingly, the Giants are a perfect 5-0 in those games.

On the other hand, Nicasio has a 5.19 ERA and 1.538 WHIP in five road starts.

Note that the Rockies are an ugly 44-78 (-41.2) in afternoon games the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also 48-68 (-20.3) vs. southpaw starters.

Last week's loss at Coors Field notwithstanding, Zito has owned the Rockies. This season's lone home meeting against the Rockies saw Zito toss seven shutout innings, en route to a 10-0 win. All things considered, I feel the price on the home team is very fair. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Padres took two of three meetings at Petco earlier. However, I look for the Diamondbacks to have the advantage this evening.

While the Dbax are a modest 12-11 at home, the Padres are only 8-13 away from San Diego. Going back further finds Arizona at 107-82 here the past few seasons, including a 65-42 (+9.1) mark when playing here with an O/U line of nine or 9.5.

While the Padres are a money-burning 24-53 (-20.6) the past few seasons, as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, the Dbax are 29-17 (+6) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

Admittedly, Stults has pitched well lately. However, McCarthy has been even better. In fact, over his last two starts - a span of 17 innings - he hasn't allowed a single run. Over his last three starts, he's got a stellar 1.16 ERA and 0.900 WHIP, averaging nearly eight innings per start.

While Arizona is familiar with Stults, McCarthy will have the advantage of facing the Padres for the first time. I expect him to continue his recent strong pitching and the home team to start the series with a victory. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Jays got a big win yesterday and I expect them to carry the momentum into today's contest. Bautista was 4 for 4 with two home runs and all four RBI's. One of his home runs was a walk-off shot in extra innings. That was the Jays' first walk off home run this season and I believe it will prove to be just what the doctor ordered, for this talented but under-achieving team.

Morrow was very sharp in his last start here at Toronto. He allowed two runs, on only three hits, through eight complete innings, winning by a score of 10-2. The Jays also won his previous start here, although Morrow who allowed three runs, didn't factor in the decision. In 24 1/3 innings here, he's got 27 K's. The Jays are 2-0 his last two starts against Baltimore.

While he took the loss at Yankee Stadium in his last start, Gibbons said this of him: "I thought Morrow threw the ball really well, he really did."

Gausman is one of the Oriole's top prospects and brings an impressive K/W ratio to the table, from the minors. However, this is his major league debut and he'll be facing a Toronto team which has quietly won five of six at home. All things considered, I feel this price is very fair. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. While the Angels had the day off, the Mariners are off a heart-breaking 10-inning loss yesterday. Those type of losses can be difficult to bounce back from. After that game, they had to fly across the country from Cleveland.

Williams is off back to back quality starts. He's 2-1 with a 3.05 and 1.097 WHIP on the season.

On the other hand, Harang is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA on the season. That includes an 0-2 mark with a 8.43 mark on the road.

While Williams is 3-1 in four starts vs. Seattle, Harang is 0-2 with an ugly 6.11 ERA and a terrible 2.037 WHIP in four starts vs. the Angels. Note that Harang missed his last start due to back stiffness.

Before yesterday's "explosion," the M's were batting .226 on the road, averaging 3.5 runs. The Angels are averaging 4.6 runs per game at home, hitting .276.

While the M's took three of four meetings at Seattle a few weeks ago, the Angels have won 13 of the last 20 series meetings here at LA. I expect them to have the advantage here. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Nationals took the first two games of this series. However, the Padres won yesterday and I look them to salvage the series split this afternoon.

Admittedly, Haren can be tough. However, he's only 1-3 with a 4.63 ERA on the road this season.

On the other hand, Cashner is 2-0 with a superb 0.68 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in two home starts, averaging 6 2/3 innings. Overall, he's got a 2.51 ERA in his five starts.

Cashner, who may not have to contend with Bryce Harper, has never started against the Nats. However, he has faced them five times in relief and has a 0.00 ERA and 0.53 WHIP in those 5 2/3 innings. He's recorded six K's, walked one and allowed two hits.

Note that the Padre bullpen has a combined 2.10 ERA here this season.

The Padres have quietly won 10 of their last 13 games here. They're also an outstanding 66-57(+22.4) in day games the past couple of seasons - a MUCH better mark than they have at night. I believe the price is fair and I expect them to "keep on rolling" here for another day. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Sox have won the first two games of the series and enter this afternoon's game on a roll. I expect the Angels to bounce back with a big win today though.

Off a 3-0 loss yesterday, note that LA is 17-9 (+4.8) off a shutout loss the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, the Sox are only 12-15 (-5.5) off a shutout win.

While the Sox are averaging 3.4 runs in the afternoon, the Angels are averaging 4.5.

Admittedly, Blanton has been inconsistent. OK, at 0-7, he's been worse than that. A 29/11 K/W ratio shows that he's still got the tools though. I feel this is a good matchup for him. Although he hasn't faced them for some time, Blanton is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA vs. the Sox.

While Santiago has impressive numbers, he's still only made a few starts and he gave up two home runs last time out.

I expect the Angels bats to come alive and for Blanton to finally break through with a "W." 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Chicago and LA to finish OVER the total. Many of you may recall that I just successfully played on the "under" when these same two pitchers squared off against each other on Sunday night. That one finished with a score of 3-0. However, there are a few reasons why I'm expecting to see more runs this evening and why I believe that the value has now shifted the other way.

For starters, the hitters just saw these same pitchers less than a week ago. That can often provide an advantage to the batters.

Also, Sale hasn't been nearly as sharp on the road. Indeed, he's 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA at home but 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA on the road.

On the other hand, Wilson has a higher ERA (4.00) at home than he does on the road.

Entering the series, games here were averaging 9.9 runs. Not surprisingly, the OVER has been a cash cow here all season. With the O/U line having dropped from its opener, I expect that to be the case again tonight. 10* Blue Chip

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Reds are rolling. However, they're stepping up in class considerably here and I expect their win streak to come to an end.

Lee was dominant last time out. He tossed seven shutout innings, en route to a 3-1 victory. In his previous start, he allowed two runs in eight innings, a 6-2 victory over the Giants. For the season, he's 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA. He averages better than seven innings per start and has a 43-9 K/W ratio.

Of course, Cingrani's numbers are also very good. That said, he only lasted four innings last time out, giving up two home runs in that span. In fact, that was the second start in a row that he's permitted two home runs. That's four home runs in just two games, as many as Lee has allowed in all eight of his.

Lee has been dominant against the Reds in recent seasons. Indeed, he's 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in his last five starts against them.

While the Reds may have better overall offensive numbers, they're only hitting .233 and averaging 3.9 runs per game away from Cincinnati. The Phillies average 4.2 runs and hit .251 here at Philadelphia.

The Phillies' reliever have a rather mediocre 4.31 ERA at home. However, the Reds' 4.98 ERA on the road is worse.

Speaking of relievers, it should also be mentioned that the Reds had to play 10 innings yesterday while the Phils had the day off.

Manager Charlie Manuel said this of his team: "For some reason we seem to win a couple, get within one or two games of .500, then all of the sudden we fall back three, four, five. Then we win a couple more, and we're yo-yoing back and forth. We definitely need to put a streak together, play sound baseball and run off a six-to-10 game winning streak."

Behind another big game from Lee, I expect Manuel's crew to take the first step towards that goal tonight, improving to 10-4 the last 14 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Detroit and Texas to finish UNDER the total. While both lineups are certainly very capable, I'm expecting a pitcher's duel here.

While he's got a modest 4-3 record thus far and admittedly wasn't his best last time out, Verlander remains among the best - if not the very best - in the game. He's got a 1.93 ERA on the season and that number dips all the way to 1.08 in four road starts. In his last road start, he tossed seven shutout innings. In 25 road innings, he has yet to give up a home run, striking out 34 and walking eight.

Darvish is no slouch either. Indeed, he's 6-1 with a stellar 2.73 ERA and 0.911 WHIP. With a chance to go head-to-head vs. one of the game's best, I expect him to bring his "A Game."

While we think of high-scoring games here, the UNDER is 10-4 here on the season, opposing teams averaging a mere 2.7 runs and hitting .217.

Darvish is 3-0 vs. the Tigers. Verlander is 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 13 starts vs. the Rangers, the UNDER going 8-4-1. His two 2012 starts vs. Texas had scores of 2-1 and 3-2. Verlander allowed a single earned run through 13 complete innings. More of the same this evening. 9*

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. The Red Sox still have the better record. However, its the Rays who are currently playing much better baseball.

With yesterday's victory, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 their last six. While the Rays are 8-4 in May, the Sox are only 4-9. That includes a 0-3 mark their last three.

The fact that this game features a pair of left-handed starters figures to favor Tampa. The Red Sox are hitting .249 and averaging 3.9 runs vs. southpaw starters. Conversely, the Rays are batting .273 and averaging 5.3 runs vs. left-handers.

The Sox are a mediocre 65-55 (-1.2) against southpaw starters the past few seasons. During that time, the Rays are a lucrative 68-48 (+19.5.)

Admittedly, Lester has pitched very well. However, Price has really been coming around of late.

True, Lester was dominant last time out. However, he did have a 5.60 ERA in his previous three starts.

True, Lester was very sharp against Price and the Rays last month. However, he'd lost his previous four starts in the series, recording a horrible 7.71 ERA.

On the other hand, Price is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in his last five starts against the Sox. While he didn't factor in the decision, he was also very sharp in last month's game.

Price has made six home starts against the Sox since 2010 and he's allowed three earned runs or less in all six. During that time, he recorded 45Ks vs. just 11 walks. Not surprisingly, the Rays won the last three of those games, including both here last season.

Given the current form of the teams and Price's history in the series, I feel this price is more than fair. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Braves took yesterday's opener. I expect the Dbax to return the favor this evening.

The Dbax are a perfect 7-0 when Corbin has taken the mound. During that 7-game stretch, he has an outstanding 1.75 ERA. At home, that mark dips to 1.42. In 19 innings here, he has yet to allow a single home run.

The Braves have also been winning when Teheran has pitched. However, that's not really all his doing, as he's got a poor 4.84 ERA and 1.528 WHIP. In four road starts, he's permitted four home runs.

Manager Kirk Gibson said this of Corbin: "We're not surprised. That's why he's on the team. We've got complete confidence in him. He's thrown the ball this way all year. He's got a great head on his shoulders. He's a total pitcher, total ballplayer."

The Dbax are 28-17 (+5) the last 45 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. With Corbin getting the better of Teheran, I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on OAKLAND. After a disappointing road trip, the A's should be happy to be back home.

While they struggled to score runs recently, the A's are averaging a healthy 4.9 runs per game here at Oakland - more than the Rangers average on the road. I expect them to score some runs this evening.

Grimm has come back down to earth his last two games, losing both. In 11 2/3 innings, he's given up eight earned runs. During that stretch, he's given up 14 hits and walked seven. That's a lot of baserunners (1.8 WHIP!) and I expect it to catch up with him again here.

For the season, Grimm has a 1.43 WHIP, 1.5 in three road starts. (Griffin's WHIP is 1.209.)

While he received a loss, Griffin didn't pitch poorly last time out - as he allowed three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. In his previous start, he shut out the Yankees through seven complete innings, out-dueling Sabathia en route to a 2-0 Oakland win.

Griffin has made 12 career starts here, going 4-1 with a solid 3.39 ERA. The A's were a dominating 10-2 in those games.

The A's, who are typically at their best against divisional opponents, have had success when hosting the Rangers in recent seasons. I expect them to start this series with a much needed victory. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Chicago and LA to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game was low-scoring (3-2 LA) in nature and I expect that to be the case again tonight.

Sale has made seven starts this season and he's seen the UNDER go 4-1-2. Both "pushes" finished with exactly seven runs too. In other words, six of his seven starts have finished with less than 7.5 runs.

A closer look shows that Sale has had one bad game (at Cleveland on 4/13) and that all six of his other starts were of the "quality" variety. He went at least seven innings in all six of those starts too.

While he's been very strong in his last two starts, which were both on the road, Sale has been at his best at home. In three home starts, he's got a 2.08 ERA and 1.061 WHIP, averaging 7.2 innings.

Sale's lone start vs. the Angels happened to come against Wilson. Sale was very sharp (1.69 ERA) in that game, allowing one run while striking out more batters than he allowed hits/waks combined. That game, which occurred last May, finished with a score of 6-1.

Wilson wasn't as dominant as Sale in that 5/17/12 contest. However, he does still have a stingy 2.25 ERA in three overall starts vs. the Sox. All three of those games stayed below the number, producing seven, six and three combined runs.

Wilson, who had 12 K's in his last start, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five straight starts. Going back further finds that he has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 or 14 of his last starts. (He allowed four in the other.)

While the Angels are only hitting .241 on the road, the Sox are batting a paltry .217 here at home. Over their last seven games, the Sox are hitting just .211 while averaging a mere 2.9 runs. Six of their last nine have dipped below the total and I expect that to be the case again this evening. 10* main event

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. The Yankees come in as the hotter team and they took yesterday's series opener. I expect the Royals to have the advantage this evening though.

Admittedly, Pettitte has better career numbers against today's opponent than Shields does. However, Shields is the pitcher in better current form.

Shields was dominant last time out. He tossed eight shutout innings, allowing a mere two hits. He also had nine K's, walking only two. Through seven starts, Shields now has a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He's averaging better than seven innings per start and has a 4/1 K/W ratio.

In three home starts, Shields has a superb 1.87 ERA and an outstanding 0.625 WHIP.

Pettitte got off to a great start. However, he's started to show his age of late. Over his last three starts, he's 0-2 (Yanks are 0-3) with an ugly 7.05 ERA and 1.761 WHIP. Last time out, in a span of only five innings, he walked four and gave up two home runs. In his previous start, he gave up 10 hits to lowly Houston, in just 4 2/3 innings.

The Yankees are off to a strong start this season. However, they remain banged-up and they're only 6-14 (-5.8) the last 20 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range.

The Royals, 10-6 at home, are 9-4 (+6.8) off a loss this season. Behind another solid effort from Shields, I expect them to bounce back. 9* personal favorite

I'm playing on SF and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. One big inning (6 SF runs in 4th) doomed the "under" in last night's 8-2 victory for the Giants. However, I expect a lower-scoring affair this afternoon.

While he wasn't at his best last time out, Bumgarner is having an excellent season. Through seven starts, he's 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. Averaging 6 2/3 innings per start, he's got 43 K's vs 11 walks. Six of his seven starts have fallen below the total. Prior to his last start, he'd allowed two or fewer earned runs in all six starts.

Bumgarner is backed by a SF bullpen which has a 2.21 ERA here at San Francisco.

After a shaky outing at Detroit to close out April, Maholm has allowed two earned runs in each of his two May starts. On the season, through seven starts, he has a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.076 WHIP. He's got 38 K's vs. 15 walks and has only allowed two home runs all season.

Maholm is supported by an Atlanta bullpen which has a 2.78 ERA and 1.144 WHIP.

Dating back to last season, the UNDER is 7-1 the last eight times that Bumgarner took the mound. Those eight games averaged only 4.625 runs. I expect another well-pitched affair. *10 Blue Chip

I'm playing on Atlanta and SF to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total, continuing an extended "over" streak for the Braves. With a couple of highly capable starters on the mound, I expect that streak to come to an end tonight though.
True, Cain's numbers aren't very good yet. However, we saw him return to form last time out, as he allowed just one run on only five hits, through 7 1/3 innings.
Cain hasn't allowed a single earned run in either of his last two starts vs. the Braves. In seven starts against Atlanta, he's got a 2.68 ERA.
Meanwhile, Hudson has a 3.00 ERA in 18 starts vs. the Giants. In his last three starts against them, he's allowed just five combined runs in 22 1/3 innings.
Overall, Hudson has a 3.10 ERA and 0.935 WHIP his last three starts.
Both bullpens have been excellent. Atlanta relievers have a combined 2.72 ERA and 1.166 WHIP. San Francisco relievers have a 2.66 ERA overall, 2.25 at home. I expect a well-pitched affair. 9*

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Braves took yesterday's series opener. However, I feel that the Giants should have an excellent shot at evening things up here.

Despite coming up short yesterday, the Giants remain a profitable 28-18 (+7.2) the past few seasons when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range.
Its not all that often we get Cain at home at that price though.

True, Cain's numbers aren't very good yet. However, we saw him return to form last time out, as he allowed just one run on only five hits, through 7 1/3 innings. He got the "W" in a 4-3 SF win.

Cain hasn't allowed a single earned run in either of his last two starts vs. the Braves.

Admittedly, Hudson is also tough. However, he hasn't been nearly as sharp on the road - the Braves are 4-0 when he pitches at home but 1-2 when he pitches away from Atlanta. He's got a 5.29 ERA in those three games, allowing four home runs in 17 innings.

The Giants are 90-73 (+7.5) off a loss the last couple of seasons. I expect Cain to build some momentum from his last game and for him to lead his team to the win. 10* best bet

I'm playing on San Diego and Miami to finish UNDER the total. This has been a low-scoring series. The first two games have both finished with six or fewer combined runs. The Marlins have managed only a single run in both games combined. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair this afternoon.

The Marlins are now averaging less than three runs per game (2.9) on the season while hitting a mere .226.

By comparison, the Padres 3.9 runs per game and .247 average looks pretty good. That's not the case though - as those numbers are still pretty feeble.

The Padres stats get even worse when they've played an "afternoon" game. In 11 day games, they're hitting .209 and averaging three runs per game.

Marquis has turned in back to back quality starts. He held Arizona to three runs in six innings after limiting SF to two runs through 6 2/3. He's allowed just two runs in each of his last three starts against the Marlins, most recently facing them in 2011.

Nolasco faced the Padres once last season and he allowed just two runs through seven innings. That was here at Petco and he was also very solid in his previous start here, back in 2010.

Looking at some long-term stats and we find that the UNDER is now 100-62-1 the last 163 times that the Padres were listed as home favorites in the 150 to 175 range. Another low-scoring affair won't surprise. 9*

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Braves took yesterday's opener. However, I expect the Reds, who are 30-19 (+8) the past couple of seasons when playing a home game with a line in the 100 to -125 range, to have the edge today.

Bailey has made three home starts and the Reds have won them all. He's averaged 6 2/3 innings in those starts and has an outstanding 0.90 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP.

Bailey is also 2-0 (Reds are 3-0) in three starts vs. Atlanta. Bailey had a 2.41 ERA in those games, going six or more innings in each. The Reds won them by a combined score of 20-6.

Medlen, who has a 5.40 ERA from his lone start vs. the Reds, has admittedly pitched better than his 1-4 record suggests. However, he does have a 5.40 ERA and 1.637 WHIP his last three starts, which isn't very good - all three of them Atlanta losses.

The Braves are hitting .247 on the road, averaging 4.3 runs. The Reds are hitting .264 at home, averaging 5.4 runs.

While they lost yesterday, the Reds have still won three of four. They're a profitable 95-67 (+18.7) the past few seasons off a loss. I expect them to bounce back here. 10* personal favorite

I'm playing on Cleveland and Oakland to finish UNDER the total. I waited to release this selection as I was hoping that the O/U line would climb higher from its opener. As expected, it did so. That being the case, feel that we're getting very fair value.

If you take a look at the season-long number from both of these starters, its not surprising that the O/U line climbed. Indeed, both starters have very poor overall numbers.

Sometimes, we need to look a little deeper than just overall numbers though.

In this case, both starters are coming off a win in their last game and both bring positive momentum into today's contest.

Jimenez was dominant last time out. All he did was throw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits.

Manager Terry Francona said this of Jimenez's last start: You're always looking to be encouraged. I think we flew past encouraged and got excited."

Note that both of Jimenez's starts against Oakland have fallen below the total.

Parker wasn't as dominant as Jimenez but he still delivered a quality start. He was quoted saying: "I felt good. I was able to forget about what's done and focus in on each pitch. There's a reason for my success and I didn't want to get away from who I am. I didn't want to fight myself."

Parker, who had a 3.46 ERA vs. Cleveland, was also very sharp in his last road start, losing 1-0. He's got a 2.80 ERA in two road starts overall.

Both bullpens have been effective this season. Cleveland relievers have a combined 2.69 ERA and 1.151 WHIP. Oakland relievers have a 2.95 ERA and 1.209 WHIP. On the road, those numbers dip to 2.38 and 1.103.

With the UNDER at 15-4-1 the last 20 times that these teams faced each other, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* blue chip

I'm playing on SF and LA to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game produced 19 combined runs. I don't even expect half that many tonight.

Ryu is off back-to-back excellent starts. He's given up just three combined runs in 13 innings, permitting only six total hits in that time. His last road start had a final score of 3-2. Overall, Ryu is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.142 WHIP. With 46 Ks (10 walks) in 37 2/3 innings, he's clearly got impressive stuff.

Ryu's lone start vs. SF resulted in a 3-0 final. He allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings but only one of those was earned. He had five K's without walking a batter.

Don Mattingly said this of RYU and what he did last time out: "He changes speeds, hit spots. He had a good curve, a slider. He didn't use changeup as much. That's a sign of a guy who uses what he needs to. He's a tough matchup."

Admittedly, Cain's numbers are pretty ugly. However, he's a proven winner and his last start here was a "quality" one. I expect him to be just fine. His 32 K's (in 34 2/3 innings) vs. 10 walks remains strong.

Note that Cain's last three starts vs. the Dodgers all stayed below the total. They had scores of 4-0, 3-2 and 3-2. Cain allowed just four total earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. This season's lone start vs. LA saw him toss six shutout innings, striking out eight and walking one.

Going back further finds that Cain is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Dodgers. He's also 2-0 with a 1.55 ERA in four starts at AT&T Park vs. LA.

Its also worth noting that Cain is backed by a SF bullpen which has a combined 1.77 ERA and 1.095 WHIP at home.

Add it up and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 10* main event