At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (881) and the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (882). THE SITUATION: Wright State (15-10) has won four straight games after their 79-62 win at Wisconsin-Green Bay as an 8-point favorite on Wednesday. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (7-18) has lost six in a row after their 75-39 loss to Northern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers shot a season-low 27.3% from the field against the Norse on Wednesday. They should shoot much better tonight as they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a loss by 20 or more points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they make a modest — but certainly much better than on Wednesday — 44% from the field which is generating 68.7 Points-Per-Game.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). THE SITUATION: Oregon (15-7) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten after their 80-77 win at Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Stanford (14-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 79-70 loss to UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: It may have taken some time for this Oregon team to develop some chemistry and establish an identity — but they are starting to roll now. Head coach Dana Altman has assembled a very intriguing roster with four former top-100 recruits at center and four ball-handling two-way guards. Altman can do a lot with this group, and his defenses are at their best when he has rim protectors. And Altman’s teams are always good on offense — this Ducks team leads the Pac-12 with an effective field goal percentage of 53.6% fueled by ranking second in the conference in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. Oregon should continue to feed off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning at least four or five of their last six games, they have covered the point spread 5 times. They only made 43.9% of their shots against the Utes which was the second-worst shooting effort in their last six games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they are 9-3 this season with a +14.1 net point differential. They make 50.9% of their shots on their home court which is generating 78.9 Points-Per-Game. They also hold their guests to 40.4% shooting — and they have held their last five opponents to just 38.1% shooting. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Stanford shot 53.7% from the field in their loss to the Bruins which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now after playing their last four games at home, they go back on the road where they are 4-6 this season with a -7.7 net point differential. The Cardinal only makes 42.5% of their shots on the road which is resulting just 62.7 PPG. Stanford is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinal has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will be motivated to avenge a 72-69 loss at Stanford in a pick ‘em contest on December 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Oregon Ducks (838) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (701) and the Seton Hall Pirates (702). THE SITUATION: Xavier (16-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 69-65 upset loss to DePaul as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. Seton Hall (14-7) has won two games in a row with their 74-55 victory against Creighton as a 5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates shot 49.1% from the field on Friday against the Bluejays in what was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They held Creighton to just 16 points in the first half after Georgetown to only 28 points in the first half in their last game. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Head coach Kevin Willard’s team ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their last five games, they are limiting their opponents to just 37.1% shooting which is resulting in only 67.2 Points-Per-Game — a -8.7 PPG drop from their season defensive average. At home, Seton Hall holds their opponents to just 39.5% shooting which is resulting in just 65.7 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored. They have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total overall when the favorite — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Xavier allowed the Blue Demons to mark 47.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Musketeers have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Xavier has also played 5 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while Xavier has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total on the road after failing to car the point spread in at least five or six of their last seven games. Xavier has the 43rd best defense in the nation as measured by Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to 42.6% shooting which has resulted in only 66.6 PPG — a -6.6 PPG drop from their defensive season average. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. And in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games, they have played all 4 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Xavier has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total in the 140s. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (701) and the Seton Hall Pirates (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (905) and the Montana Grizzlies (906). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (15-6) is on a four-game winning streak after their 84-72 victory against Eastern Washington as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Montana (15-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-63 upset loss at Idaho State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have the top-rated offense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Big Sky. They have scored at 75 points in eight straight games while reaching at least 81 points in six of those contests. They are scoring 81.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games. They have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Their triumph against the Eagles was preceded by a 16-point victory against Idaho last Thursday — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 straight Overs after winning their last two games at home by 10 or more points. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days on the road. Now after playing their last three games at home, Southern Utah goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing their last three games at home. They are scoring 75.0 PPG on the road — but they are allowing 78.4 PPG in those nine games. The Thunderbirds have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Montana has allowed 83.0 PPG in their last two games. They have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. They return home where they are a perfect 11-0 while making 48.6% of their shots which is generating 79.0 PPG. The Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 34 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. They have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Montana will likely give the Thunderbirds plenty of opportunities at the charity stripe tonight — they rank 333rd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. Southern Utah is 53rd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Montana has played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (905) and the Montana Grizzlies (906). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (861) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (862). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (11-8) has lost three games in a row after their 88-73 loss to Purdue as an 11-point underdog on Wednesday. Iowa (14-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 90-86 upset loss in double-overtime at Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ignore the final combined score in the Hawkeyes’ loss to the Nittany Lions as the game went into overtime tied at a low score of 66-66. Iowa made only 35.1% of their shots in that game, their third-lowest field goal percentage of the season. The Hawkeyes have been cold with their shooting as of late as they have not made more than 40.7% of their shots in four straight games. But styles and opponents make fights — Iowa has played Penn State twice over that span who do everything they can for their games to devolve into rock fights. The other two games Iowa has played were against stout defensive teams in Purdue and Rutgers. The Hawkeyes still score 82.8 Points-Per-Game which is the sixth-highest mark in the nation — and they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance to help see more of their shots fall. The extended time off will help — Iowa has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. This team wants to play at a fast pace — they rank seventh in the nation by averaging just 15.2 seconds per possession. They return home where they make 47.6% of their shots which helps them generate 88.8 PPG. The Over is 24-9-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 34 games at home — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Iowa has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when favored. In theory, Minnesota will want to slow the pace — but, in practice, this will be difficult to accomplish if and when the Hawkeyes take a comfortable lead. The Golden Gophers are last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.5% is also last in the conference. Minnesota allowed the Boilermakers to make 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total. They go back on the road where they are 5-3 this season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa will not have head coach Fran McCaffrey on the sideline today as he is in COVID quarantine but that should have much impact on today’s game (and the players may shoot the ball better without the hothead constantly screaming at them). Minnesota will be looking to avenge an 81-71 loss at home to the Hawkeyes on January 16th. The Gophers have palled 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points including playing five of these six circumstances this season. Minnesota will be sped up in this one by Iowa, who should hold a comfortable lead — and this dynamic should produce our Over. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (861) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (11-11) has lost three in a row and four of their last five games after their 90-84 loss at Weber State as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Southern Utah (14-6) has won three straight games and five of their last six contests with their 75-59 victory against Idaho as a 15-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington gave Kansas a scare in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament last season — but with every player who scored a point or pulled down a rebound in that game now gone, this was an expected rebuilding season for the program. Head coach Shantay Legman’s also left to rebuild the Portland program so assistant coach Dave Riley was given the reigns of the team. The 32-year-old served on the coaching staff here for ten years — and he has pretty much kept the systems and philosophies that got them to the Big Dance last season. Riley was also able to snag some key transfers to re-inject the roster with talent. Eastern Washington proved that they were still a handful to deal with after upsetting a Washington State team early in the season that currently ranks 32nd in the nation in the KenPom rankings. They are on a losing streak right now — but their four most recent losses were all settled by six points or less. They allowed the Wildcats to make 53.7% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Eagles are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big Sky opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they are 7-8 this season — but they are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road including covering the point spread in twelve of their last fourteen road games this season. This team continues to be road warriors under Riley’s leadership — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 150s. This Eastern Washington team is once again a good shooting team from deep. They are third in the Big Sky by nailing 37.1% of their 3-pointers. They should have success shooting from behind the arc against this Thunderbirds team that is ninth in the conference by allowing their opponents to make 36.8% of their 3-pointers — and they have been even worse in this department when playing at home with their opponents making 39.0% of their 3-pointers. The Eagles play good perimeter defense by holding their opponents to just 33.0% 3-point shooting, the second-best defensive mark in the conference. Eastern Washington also leads the Big Sky by limiting their opponents to pull down just 20.6% of their missed shots — this should frustrate their home hosts who lead the conference in offensive rebounding. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. The Thunderbirds are 9-2 on their home court — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing at home. Southern Utah has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they host an Eagles squad that has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah did win the first meeting between these two teams by an 89-76 score on December 2nd — but Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Underdog of the Year with the Eastern Washington Eagles (813) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (651) and the LaSalle Explorers (652). THE SITUATION: George Mason (11-8) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 92-90 upset loss to Saint Louis as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. LaSalle (6-13) is on a five-game losing streak after their 89-87 loss at George Washington as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They are top-34 in the country in both 2-point and 3-point shooting — and their effective field goal percentage of 55.2% is 20th best in the nation. They only made 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday in their loss to the Billikens which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — they had made at least 51% of their shots in their previous three games. George Mason has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where their defense does wane a bit. The 73.3 Points-Per-Game they allow away from home is +6.0 PPG above their season average — and they allow their opponents to make 44.3% of their shots on the road as compared to the 41.6% of their shots they allow overall. George Mason has played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number in the 130s. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. LaSalle is just 5-6 at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total at home with the Total in the 130s. They rank 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed at least 77 points in their last three games with all three of those contests seeing at least 146 combined points. The Explorers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in three straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games when they have lost at least three in a row, LaSalle has played 10 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Explorers have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and George Mason has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 20-40% range. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (651) and the LaSalle Explorers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). THE SITUATION: Watford (W4-D2-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Norwich City on January 21st in their last match in the English Premier League and across all competitions. Burnley (W1-D9-L8) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal in their last match on January 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After a pair of COVID cancellations delaying this match between two teams fighting off relegation, it looks like this match will finally take place this afternoon while the rest of the EPL takes the weekend off (for FA Cup competition). Watford plays their first match under new manager Roy Hodgson two took over after Claudio Ranieri was fired on January 24th. Ranieri was only the Hornets skipper since early October when Xisco Munoz was sacked after leading the team to promotion from the Champions League. The first order of business for Hodgson will be to shore up a leaky defense that is third to last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA). Hodgson has a good reputation for installing defensive tactics — he led Crystal Palace to develop into a stingy defensive squad before losing that job last season. He inherits a Hornets side that will be undermanned in their attack today. Ismaila Sara remains unavailable as he continues to compete in the Africa Cup of Nations. Forward Emmanuel Dennis is suspended for this match after he picked up two yellow cards in that match against Norwich City. Sarr and Dennis have scored 18 goals between them — accounting for 78% of the team’s scoring production in the EPL this season. As it is, Watford had only scored five goals in their previous seven matches while getting blanked twice. In their last six matches, they are generating a mere 0.88 expected goals (xG) per match. Burnley is only averaging 0.63 xG per match in their last six games. The Clarets have only scored three goals in their last seven matches with four blanks in that span. Losing Chris Wood who transferred to Newcastle played a role in this scoring slump — but this is not a high-scoring team. The organization did acquire Wout Weghorst in the transfer window from Wolfsburg but the Dutch forward may need some time to get in synch with manager Sean Dyche’s system. While Weghorst had scored at least 16 goals in four straight seasons in the Dutch Eredivisie, he struggled when playing for a second-tier team in the Bundesliga which may not be a good sign for him in the EPL. But Dyche’s side plays quality defense. The Clarets have only allowed eight goals when playing at home at Turf Moor, the fifth-lowest in the EPL, and their xGA at home is third-best in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen six of their 11 matches on the road this season finished Under 2.5 goals. Burnley averages only 2.29 combined goals per match in their seven home matches this season — and six of their last 11 home games have finished Under 2.5 goals. Expect a conservative approach from both teams who would rather register a point than concede three points to their opponent when trying to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (515) and the Indiana Pacers (516). THE SITUATION: Chicago (32-19) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 127-120 loss at Toronto as a 4.5-point underdog last night. Indiana (19-34) has lost five of their last seven games with their 119-118 upset loss to Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries have significantly impacted both teams — and the result will be mostly small-ball tonight between two teams that playing higher-scoring games given the attrition that both teams are dealing with right now. Interestingly, the oddsmakers initially set the Total at 232.5 — about six points higher than any Pacers game this season. The market has considered this lunacy and bet it down a few points. But the line was set that high for a reason. Head coach Rick Carlisle may have no centers on his roster. After Goga Bitadze suffered a foot injury before Monday’s game with the Clippers, Carlisle had to rely on rookie Isaiah Jackson as his only center — and he did respond with 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-116 victory. But Jackson was then injured very early in the game with the Magic on Wednesday — and all Carlisle had left was to play rookie free agent Terry Taylor at center despite his 6’5 frame. Taylor did score 24 points with 16 rebounds in his 37 minutes as he looked to justify his two-way contract by flourishing in the frenetic pace of that game. Jackson will remain out tonight. So while Bitazde is listed as questionable with his ankle, Carlisle may have to use Taylor in significant minutes at the five spot tonight — and that is a recipe for a fast pace and little defense from the Pacers. How will Taylor defend Nikola Vucevic? The 6’10 behemoth is scoring 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging 11.5 Rebounds Per Game. Indiana is already without Damontas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Myles Turner — and they have seen three straight and five of their last six games generate at least 230 combined points. In their last five games, the Pacers are making a healthy 46.5% of their shots which is generating 116.8 PPG — but they are allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is resulting in 127.0 PPG over that span. Not having Turner defend the paint significantly derails Indiana’s defensive foundation. It remains telling that Orlando put up 119 points despite only making 44.2% of their shots which was the Pacers’ best defensive effort in their last 12 games. The Over is 3-0-1 in Indiana’s last 4 games after a loss. Additionally, the Pacers have played 26 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home when they were favored. They have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as the underdog. Chicago got 30 points from Vucevic last night in their losing effort to the Raptors — so he is poised for another big game. The Bulls only made 47.8% of their shots last night after generating a field goal percentage of 51.1% in each of their previous four games. But they did hold Toronto to just 42.5% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games — and their third-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 13 contests. Chicago has now played four straight games where at least 246 combined points were scored. They are making 52.3% of their shots in their last five games which are producing 121.8 PPG but allowing their opponents to shoot 48.6% from the field and score 118.8 PPG. They are playing high-scoring games without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso — and they might not play Zach LaVigne or Coby White tonight on the second of back-to-backs with them nursing nagging injuries. But head coach Billy Donovan will have DeMar DeRozan leading the way in the Bulls’ small-ball attack. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs when playing without rest — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game in four days. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Bulls’ last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games on the road when favored, Chicago has played 9 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have won the last two meetings between these two teams after their 108-106 road win on December 31st. Indiana has played 29 of their last 41 games Over the Total when avenging a loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (515) and the Indiana Pacers (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (697) and the Houston Cougars (698). THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-9) has won two straight games after their 67-66 upset win at Wichita State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (18-2) has won ten games in a row after their 63-49 win at Central Florida as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are trending down in their offensive attack as of late. They are making just 43.5% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 71.6 Points-Per-Game — both marks down from their 46.5% shooting percentage for the season which is resulting in 76.9 PPG. Houston has not reached 80 points in five straight games. They have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Under is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They return home where they are 11-0 this season while limiting their opponents to just 33.3% shooting which is resulting in just 52.3 PPG. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Green Wave have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. And while Tulane has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they only make 42.9% of their shots. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog — and Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games when favored. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (697) and the Houston Cougars (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621) THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (13-7) has lost two straight games after their 76-50 loss at Texas Tech as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (13-7) won their third straight game with their 74-63 upset win at Texas A&M as a 7-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State played one of their worst games of the season in their SEC-Big 12 Challenge showdown with the Red Raiders. They allowed Texas Tech to make 61.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. And they only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting performance in their last 11 contests. Ben Howland’s team should bounce back with a strong effort. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last contest. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after losing two in a row. They return home where they are 11-1 this season with a +15.6 net Points-Per-Game differential. They make 49.6% of their shots on their home court which is generating 77.3 PPG. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. They should control the glass against the Gamecocks. Mississippi State ranks 21st in the nation by pulling down 35.0% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 31.9% of their misses, ranking 308th in the nation. And while the Gamecocks rebound 34.9% of their misses, ranking 23rd in the country, the Bulldogs limit their opponents to just 24.1% rebounds of their missed shots, ranking 41st in the nation. The other area where Mississippi State has an edge in getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs rank 55th in the nation in free throw rate — and they are facing a South Carolina team that is 350th in the nation with a Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 43.9%. The Gamecocks played their best defensive game in their last nine against the Aggies over the week by holding them to just 34.4% shooting. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in each of their games during their three-game winning streak but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. South Carolina stays on the road where they are 4-5 on the road but getting outscored by -5.9 PPG. They only make 39.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in just 62.9 PPG. Frank Martin’s team struggles to shoot the basketball. They rank 262nd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.7% — and they only make 63.6% of their free throws, ranking 346th in the country. The Gamecocks rank 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State has played Florida and Kentucky tough on the road but lacks a marquee win away from home — but their biggest victory of the season was on their home court against Alabama. They will be without Tulu Smith with a knee injury who is a spark plug coming off the bench. But the Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home when favored — and they host a Gamecocks team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State (622) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-68 loss at Arkansas as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Baylor (18-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 87-78 loss at Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears should be in a feisty mood after losing for just the second time in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Saturday. Baylor has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last three days. They return home where they are making 49.0% of their shots which is translating into 81.8 Points-Per-Game. Baylor has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bears should dominate the offensive glass in this game against Bob Huggins’ team that allows their opponents to rebound 33.9% of their missed shots, ranking 343rd in the nation. Baylor is fifth in the country by rebounding 37.5% of their missed shots — and that mark improves to 38.6% when they are playing at home. The Over is 25-12-1 in the Bears’ last 38 games when they are favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least three games in a row. West Virginia is struggling on the defensive end of the court — they are last in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and it is because of their half-court defense as they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.4%. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.0% of their shots which is translating into 77.8 PPG. But the Mountaineers do have success in generating extra scoring chances by forcing turnovers in 24.0% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 15th in the nation. West Virginia can generate scoring transitions against this Bears team who turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions, ranking 205th in the nation. The Mountaineers forced 13 turnovers at a 19.1% rate against Baylor in their first meeting two weeks ago. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has also played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor won the first meetings between these two teams in Morgantown by a 77-68 score as a 4.5-point favorite on January 18th. The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324) in the NFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-7) won their fourth straight game with their 13-10 upset victory at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (14-5) won their fifth game in their last six with their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers grinded out a low-scoring game where they only managed 212 yards while failing to score an offensive touchdown — but they held the Packers to just 263 total yards. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 total yards in their last game. They held Green Bay to just 67 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing at least 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Niners’ improvement on defense corresponds with the decision to move Arik Armstead into the interior of their defensive line. Since Week Nine, San Francisco is second in the NFL to Tampa Bay with 222 pressures on the quarterback. And after allowing 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry in the first eight weeks of the season, the 49ers held their opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry since — and their two playoff opponents have only averaged 3.5 YPC. Armstead thrives against the Rams. In his five games against them, he has 23 tackles, four hits on the quarterback, three sacks, two more tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and two knockdowns on passes. Armstead’s partnership with Nick Bosa allows the Niners to only rush three or four rushers — and this approach stymies Matthew Stafford and the Sean McVay offense. When only rushing three or four defenders, San Francisco still generates pressure in the 30% of their pass rushes in their two games against the Rams this season. Stafford has a 140 Passer Rating when blitzed this season — he chews up a defense with fewer defenders. But the Niners only blitzed 12.5% of the time against Stafford in their first two games. While holding Los Angeles to just 17.0 PPG, they sacked Stafford seven times while inducing four interceptions from three or four-man pressure. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They held the Buccaneers to just 51 rushing yards — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. And while Tom Brady passed for 308 net yards against them last week, they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at last 250 passing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They hold their guests to just 19.7 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams very familiar with the approaches of the two offensive head coaches. This is the third matchup between these two teams in 11 weeks. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City’s ability to survive their instant-classic with the Bills should only embolden them to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in both their playoff games as a favorite this postseason, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. The Chiefs did surrender 422 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has a significant experience edge with this team playing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game. It starts with Patrick Mahomes who owns an 8-2 record in the postseason with his two lone losses being to Tom Brady. In his eight playoff games at home, Mahomes is 7-1 with 23 touchdown passes, just one interception, and a Passer Rating of 120.5. In the playoffs this year, Mahomes is completing 76% of his passes for 782 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception in his two games. The early-season problems he was encountering with two-high safety looks are long gone. The emergence of two dangerous counter options to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have helped. In the last five games, wide receiver Byron Pringle had 24 receptions from 33 targets for 232 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jerick McKinnon has 33 touches for 220 yards in the two playoff games. And Mahomes brings two additional important intangibles to these playoff games. First, he is more likely to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball seven times for 69 yards against the Bills. In his ten playoff games, he has 52 rush attempts with a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average with five touchdowns — as opposed to the 3.8 rush attempts he averages per game in the regular season with only eight touchdowns in those 63 games. Second, Mahomes protects the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 192 pass attempts. In his postseason career, he throws an interception once in every 77 throws and he has never fumbled. Kansas City hosts this game at Arrowhead Stadium where they will enjoy a significant home-field edge with a very loud crowd disrupting Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Cincinnati is happy to be in this position — but they might impact their sense of urgency. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. I love Burrow — but they beat a flat Titans team last week that was the lowest-rated number one or two seed according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati only outgained their opponents in the regular season by +5.1 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Bengals are getting outgained by -18.1 net YPG despite playing only two playoff teams away from home in the regular season (and they got outgained last week to the Titans). Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans with head coach Zac Taylor failing to change schemes to offer him more short or intermediate routes (or a screen pass!) rather than condemning him to yet another coverage sack. Cincinnati does not have a good offensive line. And I think the Chiefs’ have a significant advantage with Andy Reid along with his coordinators Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo. The Bengals are an organization that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will not take this Bengals team lightly after getting upset by them in Cincinnati on January 2nd by a 34-31 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead in that game while committing 10 penalties and too many mental errors in that game. Mahomes has won four of his five opportunities in the playoffs to avenge a regular-season loss to their opponent — and Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). THE SITUATION: Manhattan (10-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 78-62 loss at Monmouth as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. Saint Peter’s (8-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 69-62 upset win at Marist as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JASPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Manhattan should play better tonight against a team that carries a similar profile. The Jaspers only made 35.6% of their shots against the Hawks which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Manhattan us 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Jaspers are led by 6’5 senior Jose Perez. The Marquette transfer came to Manhattan for his final season — he is scoring 17.9 Points-Per-Game and averaging 4.6 Assists-Per-Game. Head coach Steve Masiello’s team is the second-best in the nation in getting to the free-throw line with a 45.0% free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Jaspers should get plenty of chances at the charity stripe tonight (where they make 74.5% of their free throws) against this Peacocks team that ranks 350th in the nation with an opponent’s free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 43.2%. This Manhattan team is shooting much better inside the arc this season (after making only 44.4% of their 2-pointers last year) with a 54.2% shooting clip in conference play, the top mark in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. The Jaspers stay on the road where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Saint Peter’s is just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are 4-2 on the season — but they are only making 40.4% of their shots which is resulting in only 66.8 PPG. After playing their last three games on the road, the Peacocks play a home game for the first time since January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after playing at least three straight games on the road. Saint Peter’s are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that can struggle to make shots — and they turn the ball in 20.9% and 20.8% of their possessions. Manhattan has the most impressive victory between these two teams — they beat a Liberty team currently ranked 96th in the nation in the kenpom rankings by 16 points. Saint Peter’s defeated Monmouth who rank 117th at kenpom. The Jaspers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and the Peacocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Manhattan Jaspers (883) plus the points versus the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). THE SITUATION: Iowa (14-5) has won three of their last four games after their 68-51 win against Penn State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (16-3) has won four of their last five games with their 80-60 win against Northwestern as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa is once again dynamo on offense under head coach Fran McCaffrey. They rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But what is exciting about this Iowa team is their improved play on defense. After holding Rutgers to just 31.0% shooting eight days ago, they followed that up limiting the Nittany Lions to only 33.3% shooting on Saturday in that win. The Hawkeyes held Penn State to just 25 points in the first half — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they have an 11-1 record with a net point differential of +22.5 Points-Per-Game. Iowa makes 48.5% of their shots at home which generates a whopping 90.2 PPG — and they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on their home court. They limit their guests to 41.0% shooting. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Boilermakers have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven rebounds per game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding their last four opponents by at least six rebounds per game. Purdue has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on defense in Big Ten play — their opponents' effective field goal percentage in conference play of 51.9% ranks ninth. They allow Big Ten opponents to make 34.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking ninth. Big Ten foes are also nailing 51.0% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 10th in the conference. The Boilermakers do rank number one in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they do drop to sixth in the country in that metric when playing in true road games. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams by a 77-70 in West Lafayette. Iowa played that game with their All-American Keegan Murray who is third in the nation with a 22.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average. The Hawkeyes made only 5 of their 21 shots (23.8%) from behind the arc as well in that game — but now they return home where they make 36.8% of their shots from distance. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (824) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (823). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (44) versus the Calgary Flames (43). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (25-12-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 7-1 loss in Calgary against this Flames team. Calgary (20-12-6) has won three of their last four games after following that victory with a 6-0 shutout win at Columbus last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis returns home rested and ready to avenge that bad loss on Monday to the Flames. The Blues have won 11 of their last 16 games after a loss this season — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games this season after a loss on the road. Furthermore, St. Louis has won 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Back at home at the Enterprise Center, the Blues have won 13 of their last 16 games — and they have won 16 of their last 21 games at home when favored. They are enjoying a breakout season right wing Jordan Kyrou who leads the team with 41 points in his 38 games played. Backup goaltender Ville Husso get the start tonight for Jordan Binnington who got roughed up in Monday’s game — and he is having an outstanding season. Husso has a 1.88 Goals-Against-Average with a .943 save percentage in 12 starts (13 appearances) this season. At home, Husso has been even better with a 1.74 GAA and a .940 save percentage in seven starts. And in his five starts (six games) this month, Husso has a 1.13 GAA and a .965 save percentage. St. Louis has won 7 of their last 8 games against teams from the Western Conference — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Calgary is on a heater right now with their offensive attack -- they have averaged a whopping 52.3 shots in their last three games. But the Flames have lost 5 of their last 7 games after putting up at least 33 shots in three straight games. They stay on the road where they have lost 4 of their last 5 games — and they have lost 4 straight road games as the money-line underdog. They counter with Daniel Vladar between the pipes who will be making just his fifth start since December. Vladar has a 2.73 GAA and a .910 save percentage in his nine starts this year — but his best work was early in the season. In his four starts since December, he has a rough 4.17 GAA and an .869 save percentage. He has allowed at least four goals in his last three starts — and he got burned with six goals in his most recent start in Carolina on January 7th. Calgary has lost 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog overall. Additionally, the Flames have lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 15 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops like Calgary with their good underlying five-on-five metrics — and those numbers are not so high on the Blues. But those numbers have limitations that the team trends referenced above expose a bit. It is a bad situation for the Flames playing the second game on the road without rest with a rusty and struggling goaltender. Calgary has lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Blues — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 games in St. Louis. The Blues have won 8 of their 10 opportunities for revenge this season — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals. 25* NHL Game of Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (44) versus the Calgary Flames (43). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (14-5) has lost two in a row and four of their last five after a 59-44 upset loss at home to TCU as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State (10-8) has their two-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 56-51 loss at Texas as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State opened the season with 12 straight wins — but they are now facing the difficulties of playing in an uber-competitive Big 12 conference. But it would be a mistake to discount this team that has high-profile victories against Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa, Xavier on a neutral court, and Creighton on the road. They lost by just one point at Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. They only made 30.9% of their shots on Saturday against the Horned Frogs which was their second-lowest mark of the season. Iowa State is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 50 points in their last game. Their previous loss was a 72-60 setback last Tuesday at Texas Tech motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing their second game in eight days. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 55 points in their last game. Scoring baskets is an issue for this team — they have not scored more than 64 points in eight straight games since a 98-93 win against Cleveland State on December 13th. To compound matters tonight, Oklahoma State will be without point Bryce Williams who is out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are balanced on offense (or they lack reliable scorers …) — but Williams does lead the team with meager 10.6 Point-Per-Game and 3.3 Assists-Per-Game averages. In their last five games, they are making just 37.9% of their shots which is resulting in 57.2 PPG. They are only 3-3 on their home court where they have lost to the Xavier team that the Cyclones beat on a neutral court — and they also got upset at home to Oakland this season. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: These are two similar teams who rank sixth and seven in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency fueled by the fourth and twelfth best defensive turnover rates in the nation (Iowa State has the better numbers in both instances, by the way). Both teams also are loose with the ball when they have possession (the Cyclones have slightly better seasonal turnover numbers but have been worse in conference play relative to the Cowboys). But Iowa State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored. 25* CBB Big 12 Underdog of the Month with the Iowa State Cyclones (721) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). THE SITUATION: Albany (7-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped with an 86-75 loss to Stony Brook as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. UMass-Lowell (9-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-61 loss at New Hampshire as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Great Danes allowed Stony Brook to make 55.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. And Albany’s meager 44.8% field goal percentage in that game was actually the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Great Danes have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.7% of their shots which is generating only 60.3 Points-Per-Game. Albany has played 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 26 road games as an underdog, the Great Danes have played 19 of these games Under the Total. Albany is playing tough on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 41.0% shooting which is resulting in only 61.4 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning no more than 40% of their games. UMass-Lowell allowed New Hampshire to make 46.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent field goal percentage in their last 11 games. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the River Hawks have not scored more than 29 points in the first half in six straight games, they have then played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half of at least two straight games. They are making just 41.3% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 63.4 PPG. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 37.6% shooting which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. UMass-Lowell has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when at home and favored. The River Hawks have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Albany and UMass-Lowell rank 332nd and 308th respectively in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. These two make only 29.3% and 27.7% of their shots from behind the arc — ranking 304th and 339th in the country. In their first meeting on January 12th, they combined to make only 7 of their 31 shots from behind the arc for a 22.6% combined clip in a game that the Great Danes won by a 57-47 score as a 2-point underdog. The River Hawks have played 6 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB America East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). THE SITUATION: Towson (14-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped with an 81-77 upset loss to UNC-Wilmington on Saturday. Delaware (14-6) has won three games in a row with their 80-77 win against Elon as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Towson should rebound with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Just ignore last year’s 4-13 record for Towson in a year impacted by COVID and injuries. Head coach Pat Skerry is a veteran head coach with a good track record — and he was aggressive in the transfer market to bolster the talent on his roster. This is a balanced team with four players scoring at least 10.7 Points-Per-Game. As usual, Skerry’s teams attack the offensive glass — the Tigers rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.7% of their missed shots. They should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against a Blue Hens team that allows their opponents to rebound 37.1% of their missed shots, 321st in the nation — and they are last in the Colonial Athletic Association by allowing their conference opponents to rebound 39.7% of their misses. This Towson team is different because they are taking many more shots from behind the arc. It is not uncommon for the Tigers to take fewer than 30% of their shots from 3-point range but this year they are taking 38.7% of their shots from distance which is just over the 38.1% national average. Even better, Towson is nailing 36.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking 49th in the nation. The Tigers defense is steadily improving as well — they rank second in the Colonial in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and top the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. Offensive rebounding and defense travels which is why Towson is 7-4 away from home with an average winning margin of +7.3 net Points-Per-Game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Towson has covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a dog. Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with one day or less of rest. The Blue Hens have won five of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while Delaware has enjoyed halftime leads of at least seven points in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after leading by at least five points at halftime in at least three games in a row. The Blue Hens are 7-0 at home this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. Furthermore, Delaware has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. The Blue Hens are led by George Washington transfer Jameer Nelson, Jr., the son of the former NBA player. But the vulnerability of this Delaware team is their defense.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are tied in conference play with a 5-2 record — but the Blue Hens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Towson has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against winning teams — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Underdog of the Month with the Towson Tigers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Delaware Hens (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite. Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: After an early-season slide where they lost four of their six games, this Kansas City team was driven to redeem themselves from losing in last year’s Super Bowl are clicking on all cylinders now. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kansas City seized the better record over the Bills in the regular season which allows them to host this crucial showdown. Patrick Mahomes has won six of his seven starts at home at Arrowhead Stadium while averaging 310.3 passing Yards-Per-Game. He has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception in his seven home playoff games while posting a 120.1 Passer Rating. Head coach Andy Reid will give him the green light to run the ball more given the winner-takes-all stakes of this game. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough at home as well as they hold their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game and just 337.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. The Chiefs have also found themselves yet another weapon on offense with the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon. The former Vikings and Niners player had 18 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers last week while giving Mahomes a nice weapon in the screen passing game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo propped up their stats with some blowout wins (mostly against lesser opponents) this season. But they lost all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — one of the biggest reasons why I side with Mahomes versus Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week against the Patriots, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. But now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Buffalo has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs left many points on the field with many mental miscues and a few bad bounces that ruined drives. KC was also missing defensive stars Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward to injury in that game — and they had yet to acquire Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. After adding Ingram to their defensive line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones back to his preferred inside position on the line — and the defense immediately improved. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) in their NFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-5) won their sixth game in their last seven with their 34-11 victory against Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Tampa Bay (14-4) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine with their 31-15 victory against Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams score 27.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Over is 9-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory by double-digits. Furthermore, the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 14 points. And while their win against the Cardinals finished Under the 48.5 point total, Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Rams travel east for this game — the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games on the road. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5. to 49 point range. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog in all situations — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.0 PPG and averaging 409.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams won the first meeting between these two teams on September 26th in a 34-24 victory with the Total set at 55. That was the 5th straight Over between these two teams. The Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-4) takes the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th. San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Even assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is close to full strength with his nagging thumb and shoulder injuries that have kept him questionable to play all week, this is a very challenging set of circumstances for the 49ers. They have pulled off two straight upset victories in must-win circumstances after reaching the playoffs in Week 18 with their underdog win in Los Angeles against the Rams. This is the third straight game on the road for the Niners — and that is a ton of air travel for a team that has flown back home after their last two wins. Now San Francisco travels across the country east for the second straight week — albeit on a short six-day week as well. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least two straight games on the road. And while San Francisco has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their only three games in the last three seasons under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they had covered the point spread three games in a row. I do worry about an even 100% Garoppolo if asked to keep up with Aaron Rodgers tonight. How will he perform in weather conditions in the single digits and probably below zero with the wind chill? He struggles when put off script — he is completing just 54% of his passes in the second half in playoff games when off script with a low Passer Rating of 49 in those situations. Green Bay is rested and ready for the challenge — and they should be feisty after getting upset by the Lions. Granted, head coach Matt LaFleur rested starters in the second half of that game — but the Packers went into halftime trailing by a 17-13 score despite Rodgers playing the entire first half. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers get some reinforcements back on defense with linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus and cornerback Jaire Alexander all expected to return to action tonight. The offensive line also gets starters David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Myers back from injury. Rodgers will not mind the frigid temperatures — he has a 29-1 record straight-up when the temperature is no higher than 32 degrees. Against playoff teams this season, Green Bay has a 5-0 record with Rodgers throwing 10 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Packers are 8-0 at home in Lambeau Field this season with a +15.8 net point differential. Rodgers has 20 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games with the offense scoring 30.6 PPG. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to just 16.8 PPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Dealing with the physical style of play that the 49ers bring to the table under Shanahan had been a problem for the Packers — highlighted by their 37-20 loss in the playoffs two years ago when they gave up 285 rushing yards. But that game was in San Francisco — and Green Bay has won both meetings with the Niners since including a 30-28 victory back at Levi’s Stadium on September 26th. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Television Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302) in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (11-7) advanced from the AFC Wild Card playoffs with their 26-19 win against Las Vegas as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (12-5) returns to action after their 28-25 victory at Houston as an 11-point favorite on January 9th in their final regular-season game.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While the Titans’ offense has not been at full-strength often this season, Ryan Tannehill will have all his weapons this afternoon with running back Derrick Henry and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all expected to play. Tennessee scored 27.3 Points-Per-Game even at less than full strength on offense in their four victories against playoff teams in San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, and Buffalo. The Titans enter the postseason averaging 27.3 PPG in their last three games after scoring 34 and 28 points in their last two contests. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The Titans are on a three-game winning streak — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tannehill completed 23 of 32 passes for 287 yards with four touchdown passes while leading the offense to 425 total yards in their final regular-season game. Tennessee has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Titans have also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. And while the Texans gained 353 yards against the Tennessee defense, the Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Davis Mills led a Houston offense that passed for 289 yards in that game. While Tennessee has a potent pass rush, their defensive backs do get burned — they rank 25th in the NFL by allowing 245 passing YPG. Here comes perhaps the most dynamic trio of wider receivers in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd of the Bengals. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 525, 446, and then 244 yards last week in his last three starts (he did not play in the Bengals’ final regular-season game against Cleveland). He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in these last three starts — and completed at least 70.6% of his passes with at least a 110.4 Passer Rating in each of those three games. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while the Bengals have won four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least four or five of the last six games. But the Cincinnati defense did give up 385 yards to the Raiders last week — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The injuries to defensive tackles Larry Ogunjobi and Mike Daniels further expose a suspect defense that already ranked just 25th in the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 trips to Nashville to play the Titans. The Over is 12-5-1 in Tennessee’s last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Titans will score their share of points in this game with their weapons back in tow — but Burrow should be able to keep things interesting for the Bengals. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200066) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200065). THE SITUATION: Everton (W5-D4-L10) lost their third match in the English Premier League in their last four with a 2-1 setback to Norwich City last Saturday. Aston Villa (W7-D2-L11) snapped a three-game losing streak across all competitions last Saturday with a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Everton organization decided enough was enough after the uninspired play from the Toffees from a promoted Canaries side that is currently in the relegation zone. Everton is in 16th place themselves — a far cry from the top half of the table where they expect to be competing for European competition qualification for next season. Manager Rafa Benitez was sacked after the match and replaced by assistant and a previous interim manager for the team in Duncan Ferguson. Benitez was not popular with fans nor the locker room — so I am expecting the new manager bounce for the Toffees this morning. And like a college football team firing their manager in-synch with a good returning class knowing that they are putting their new head coach in a better position to succeed, Benitez’s firing coincides with Everton getting healthy again. The Toffees have been ravaged with injuries but they do now have Dominic Calvert-Lewin back as their striker along with attacking midfielder Richarlison and Yerry Mina to fortify their backline. Calvert-Lewin has started the last two matches after playing only three matches in August before being out with an injury. Richarlison and Mina came on in the 54th minute against Norwich City with the Brazilian midfielder scoring a goal and jumpstarting the Toffees’ attack. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Everton averages 1.43 expected goals (xG) per match when Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are playing together on the pitch — that mark drops to 0.98 xG when one or both of them are not playing in the last two seasons. The Toffees scored at least two goals in those first three matches in August before the Calvert-Lewin injury. Richarlison has missed seven of the team’s 19 matches this season — a big blow since he is probably the best overall player on the roster. Mina has missed 11 matches this season. When he is on the pitch leading the backline defenders, Everton allows only 1.12 expected goals (xGA) — but they surrender 1.92 xGA when he is not playing this season. The Toffees are a much better team when playing at home at Goodison Park where they have registered four of their five victories this season. Everton has scored at least two goals in six of their nine home matches — and they have just an expected net goal differential of -1.39 despite all the injuries to key players. Aston Villa had been outscored by a 6-2 margin in their three-game losing streak before eking out the surprising draw against a still-struggling Man United side finding their identity under a new caretaker manager. The Villans enjoyed an initial bump under their new manager Steven Gerrard who took over nine matches ago.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). THE SITUATION: Sacred Heart (8-11) has won two games in a row after their 74-66 win against Central Connecticut State as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Mount St. Mary’s (6-12) has won two of their last three games after their 57-50 win at Merrimack as a 3-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIONEERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Sacred Heart team almost everyone from the young team that surprised expectations by finishing tied for third in the Northeast Conference last season. The Pioneers got clocked in the conference tournament against Bryant by 30 points — but they demonstrated their growth earlier this season by only losing by three points at Bryant on December 31st. Sacred Heart also scored an impressive opening victory to begin their season with an overtime win at LaSalle. The deeper analytics suggested that the Pioneers overachieved last season — however, the positive impact of head coach Anthony Latina should not be dismissed. Sacred Heart should play well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread loss. They are 3-1 so far in conference play. Latina runs a four-guard attack that is led by Tyler Thomas and Aaron Clarke who score 19.1 and 16.2 Points-Per-Game. This team is also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation that ranks 109th in the country by pulling down 30.8% of their missed shots — and the lead the Northeast Conference by rebounding 37.7% of their misses. This is an area of weakness for the Mountaineers as they rank 233rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 29.6% of their misses. Sacred Heart has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Their offensive rebounding travels — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Mount St. Mary’s has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. And while the Mountaineers have played two straight Unders, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Now after playing their last four games on the road, they return home to play for the first time since December 18th. Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after playing at least three straight games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. The Mountaineers have a big frontline with Mezzo Offurum, Nana Opoku, and Malik Jefferson who are 6’8, 6’9, and 6’9 respectively. It is this trio that helped them win the Northeast Conference tournament and go to the Big Dance last March. But these big men don’t shoot from distance - they are a combined 8 of 28 from 3-point land this season with Offurum dominating those numbers by taking 22 of those shots (but only making five). With these three a non-threat from distance with that 28% shooting mark from 3-point land, opponents are happy to play zone defenses against them. Mount St. Mary’s went on their late-season run a year ago because Damian Chong Qui became their Mr. Everything as the primary ball-handler and scorer. He transferred to Indiana-Fort Wayne in the offseason. Head coach Dan Englestad responded by bringing in Jalen Benjamin from UAB to take over that role — but Benjamin has not been as prolific in scoring, rebounding, and assists as Chong Qui, especially in clutch time. The Mountaineers rank 323rd in the nation in eight in the conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Underdog of the Month with the Sacred Heart Pioneers (306207) plus the points versus the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). THE SITUATION: UMass (7-9) has lost four in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 81-68 loss to Rhode Island as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Louis (11-5) won their third game in their last four with their 63-45 win against Fordham as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MINUTEMEN PLUS THE POINTS: UMass only shot 35.7% from the field on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. The Minutemen rank 35th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. UMass ranks third in the nation by nailing 41.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and they take 41.4% of their field goal attempts from 3-point land. In conference play, the Minutemen are making 46.4% of their 3-pointers. They face a Billikens team that has allowed their five opponents away from home to shoot 36.3% from 3-point land — and their three games in true road games in hostile environments, their home hosts have made 39.7% of their shots from downtown, the 319th worst mark in the nation. UMass has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they have allowed at 77 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are 6-2 on the season with an average winning margin of +6.5 Points-Per-Game. They score 80.1 PPG at home — and they have already upset Penn State and Rutgers at home this season. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game at home. They are also 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Billikens made 45.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But they have scored just 63 points in each of their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight contests. They held the Rams to only 28.6% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. Away from home, the Billikens are 3-2 while making only 41.4% of their shots — and they allow their opponents to make 47.5% of their shots away from home. Saint Louis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Billikens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: UMass has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Underdog of the Month with the Massachusetts Minutemen (734) plus the points versus the Saint Louis Billikens (733). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). THE SITUATION: Army (10-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-54 upset loss at Lafayette as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. American (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 63-55 win at home against Bucknell in a pick ‘em contest on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should respond to their upset loss with a strong performance tonight. They only made 33.9% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 13 games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring at least 60 points on the road in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a loss on the road. Head coach Jimmy Allen has three starters back from the group that finished 15-15 last season. They were the only Patriot League team that played non-conference games in a year impacted by COVID. They are 4-2 so far in conference play. This team does not give away many freebies at the charity stripe — they rank 11th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. They are also second in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they now host a team in the Eagles that is last in the Patriot League by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Army returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.7 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to 37.4% shooting which results in just 59.5 PPG. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. American was a difficult team to gauge entering this season. They only played ten games last year, winning just four times. They only played three different opponents in their nine regular-season games in the skewed Patriot League schedule impacted by COVID. Their best player from that group, Jamir Harris, transferred to Seton Hall. After an opening game overtime victory against a Marist team that ranks 169th in the currently kenpom rankings, they have since not defeated a team ranked higher than 290th using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Eagles are last in the Patriot League in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also last in the conference by making only 28.1% of their shots from behind the arc. They go back on the road where they are just 2-8 this season — and they are getting outscored by -16.5 PPG. They only score 62.7 PPG on the road — and they give up 79.2 PPG on 49.6% shooting. American has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (1142) minus the points versus the American Eagles (1141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-6) has lost two in a row and five of their last six games after their 75-68 loss to Nevada as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Boise State (12-4) has won nine games in a row with their 71-63 win at New Mexico as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom — and they have held their last five opponents to just 39.7% shooting which has translated into just 59.4 Points-Per-Game. But head coach Leon Rice will want a better effort from his team on defense after they allowed New Mexico to make 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up all season. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Boise State is also an excellent rebounding team. They have held their last three opponents to no more than 29 rebounds — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 31 boards in three straight games. They held the Lobos to just three offensive rebounds on Saturday — and they have then played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last contest. The Broncos rank sixth in the nation by limiting their opponents to pull down just 21.2% of their missed shots. Air Force is simply not going to get many second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they only rebound 18.8% of their missed shots, ranking 353rd in the nation. But Boise State is a bad shooting team themselves. They make only 60.3% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 355th in the nation. They only nail 32.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 216th in the country. The Broncos have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home with the Total in the 120s. Air Force has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons made only 38.2% of their shots in that game. They have made just 39.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in just 53.4 PPG. They go back on the road where they score only 56.9 PPG on 43.6% shooting. Air Force has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their home games. The Falcons have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W12-D7-L3) comes off a 1-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W6-D10-L4) settled for a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea is just W1-D4-L1 in their last six matches after their loss over the weekend that likely ended their chances to win the English Premier League title. They managed only four shots against Man City with only one on target — and they did not register a shot in the entire first half of the match. They generated a mere 0.43 expected goals in the game. The Blues have only scored one goal in their last two matches. They are missing some key pieces in their attack in wings Reece James and Ben Chilwell are out with injuries. Their attack declines when playing on the road — while they average 2.20 expected goals (xG) when playing at home in league play, that drops to 1.64 xG when they are on the road in the EPL this season. But the defensive effort for this Chelsea side under manager Thomas Tuchel. They rank third in the league by holding their opponents to 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) — and their xGA on the road is 1.11. Brighton is unbeaten in their last five matches despite getting their goal on Friday from an own-goal from the Eagles. The Seagulls are an outstanding defensive team under manager Graham Potter. They rank fourth in the EPL by allowing only 1.19 expected goals (xGA). They are also second in the league in the fewest Big Chances (representing an expected goal rate of 35%) and fifth in fewest shots allowed. When playing at home, Brighton holds their opponents to 1.09 xGA. But the Seagulls have not scored more than one goal in six of their last seven games at home at Amex Stadium. These two teams just played on December 29th which resulted in a 1-1 draw. Chelsea managed only 0.92 xG in that match despite averaging 3.17 xG in their previous five matches at home. Brighton countered with only 1.05 xG in that contest. In the reverse fixture between these clubs last season, the result was a scoreless draw.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has seen two or fewer combined goals in four of their last six matches across all competitions. Brighton has seen two or fewer combined goals in nine of their last eleven matches across all competitions. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona took a step back in the second half of the season with five losses in their last eight games after an 8-1 start. I thought the Cardinals were overvalued after that fast start (and I am not the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan) — but they are bit undervalued in this spot. Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury. The pressure appears to be off this team — and that makes them dangerous. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Cardinals defense should play better after allowing the Seahawks (emboldened in the role of the spoiler in what Pete Carroll described as their “Super Bowl”) to generate 431 yards with a 7.70 Yards-Per-Play average. Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And in their last 38 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP, they  have covered the point spread in 27 of these contests. The Cardinals played their best football on the road where they were 8-1 with an average winning margin of +10.8 net Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit holds their home hosts to just 18.9 Points-Per-Game and 319.0 total YPG. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as the underdog. Furthermore, Arizona is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Cardinals had a 5-2 record against the playoff teams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of these 7 games. Los Angeles only won twice in their seven games against playoff teams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games against playoff teams. The Rams took a 17-3 lead into the first half last week against the 49ers before getting outscored by a 24-7 margin in the second half. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after taking a two-touchdown lead or more in the first half of their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Despite pundits wanting to believe in the high-ceiling of this LA All-Star team, there are significant flaws. Matthew Stafford has demonstrated that perhaps he was not an innocent victim during his time playing for the Detroit Lions after committing nine turnovers in the last four games. He has thrown four pick-sixes this season — yet head coach Sean McVay continues to call plays that put his new shiny toy at quarterback in the best position to succeed. Stafford struggles against pressure up the middle — and that is an area where the return of Watt could make a big difference. The season-ending injury to Robert Woods has played a role in Stafford’s inconsistent play in the second half of the season. He has thrown 11 interceptions in since Week 10 — and his Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game has dropped a full yard to 7.6 YPA over that span. While Stafford was lighting up the league with a Passer Rating of 111.6 in the first nine weeks of the year, he only had a Passer Rating of 93.7 in the final nine weeks. A decline of the running game has not helped with Darrell Henderson going on Injured Reserve. Los Angeles has only ran for 73 and 64 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in two straight games. The defense has underperformed expectations as well. They allowed 449 yards to San Francisco last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where, as Stafford’s wife will attest, they will not necessarily have a vociferous crowd advantage. Arizona fans will travel as Niners fans did last week. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona upset the Rams in LA in the first meeting on October 3rd by a 37-20 score. Los Angeles won the rematch on December 13th in Glendale by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on the road motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (9-7-1) has won two games in a row to sneak into the playoffs after their 16-13 victory in overtime at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (12-5) won their ninth game in their last ten in a 28-24 win at Denver as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers made the playoffs on the strength of their defense. They held their last two opponents to just 27 combined points — and three of their last four opponents have not scored more than 14 points. The formula for success tonight for Pittsburgh will be give rookie running back Najee Harris plenty of carries in the attempt to slow this game down to a crawl. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after a win on the road against an AFC North opponent. The Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning three of their last four (as they have), the Steelers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. But scoring will be an issue for this Pittsburgh team that averages just 20.2 Points-Per-Game and 315.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Those numbers drop to 19.5 PPG and 312.1 total YPG in their eight games on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-15-1 in their last 54 games on the road — and they have played 29 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. The offense has not picked up during this last season run — they have only scored 19 or fewer points in three of their last four games while not scoring more than 20 points in five of their last seven games. In their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog, the Steelers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chiefs have played their last two games on the road where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. They allowed 6.87 and 8.05 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games on defense — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The defense has been a bright spot for this team in the second half of the season — they have held seven of their last ten opponents to 17 points or less with four settling for single digits. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Kansas City has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when a double-digit favorite. And in their last 5 games in the wild card round of the playoffs, the Chiefs have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City dominated the Steelers in a 36-10 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on December 26th last month. These teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in KC Under the Total despite that game sneaking over the 44 point total. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 35 points. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: New England (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after a 33-24 upset loss at Miami as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (11-6) won their fourth straight game with their 27-10 win against the New York Jets as a 16-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Josh Allen may garner most of the headlines for the Bills — but don’t sleep on the Buffalo defense under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Bills have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 Points-Per-Game and 202.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has allowed just 25 combined points in their last two games. Additionally, the Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. Buffalo hosts the third meeting between these AFC East rivals where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Buffalo has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in January. McDermott and Frazier should have their best game plan yet to challenge Patriots’ rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Throw out the first game between these two teams when Jones only attempted three passes in the wind and cold in Buffalo (although that effort does not inspire confidence). In the rematch on December 26th which the Bills won by a 33-21 score as a 1-point underdog, Jones completed only 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards with two interceptions. The former Alabama quarterback might have hit a wall to close out the season. Since Week 14, Jones only completed 59.9% of his passes as compared to his 67.6% completion percentage for the season. Jones was much more effective when playing at home as well where completed 68.1% of his passes while averaging 249.1 passing Yards-Per-Game with 16 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. His Quarterback Rating at home is 97.5. But on the road, while Jones’ completion percentage only drops to 66.8%, he averages just 194.9 passing YPG with six TD passes and six interceptions — and his QBR falls to 85.4. Jones will not have Isaiah Wynn protecting his blind side either with the left tackle out with a hip and ankle injury. The Patriots were content to grind out lower-scoring games on the road with their defense that allowed only 16.0 PPG and 284.1 total YPG. Bill Belichick has had great success in frustrating Allen in his career. Allen completes only 57.1% of his passes against New England in his career while averaging just 215.9 passing YPG and a QBR of 82.7. Allen has not been great in his career in cold weather despite his college experience at Wyoming and his strong arm. His career completion percentage of 62.3% drops to 50.3% in his five games played in below-freezing temperatures. He averages only 166.6 passing YPG in those games with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: New England has palled 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Buffalo. The temperatures will be in the single digits for this game although the wind will not be nearly the factor that it was in the first game between these teams this season. Weather conditions must be considered in relation to the subsequent Over/Under number — but suffice to say that frigid temperatures harden the football which negatively impacts placekicking and makes it harder to catch the football. In other words, freezing temperatures certainly do not help produce higher-scoring games. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas benefited from Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley misreading analytics by taking silly chances like going for it on 4th-and-2 on their own 18-yard line to pull the upset last week. Coaching mistakes like that helped the Raiders overcome getting outgained by 94 net yards — but a +2 net turnover margin helped even that game as well. The result had a feel of Las Vegas winning their Super Bowl by giving the home fans their first taste of the playoffs since the club moved from Oakland — made all the sweeter given all the turmoil this team has encountered this season starting with the removal of Jon Gruden as their head coach. An emotional letdown is likely — especially for a team that has pulled off three straight upset wins to reach the playoffs. All four of their games during their current winning streak were decided by just a field goal — and they have benefited from a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession including a 4-0 mark in games that went to overtime. In other words, the Raiders are a few breaks going against them from being an 8-9 (or worse) football team. There were outscored by -3.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and they were outscored by -4.1 PPG when playing on the road. And on the road this teams goes under very challenging circumstances coming from a long overtime game on Sunday Night Football to the opening playoff context on Saturday afternoon — and they have to travel across the country to boot! As it is, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after upsetting a divisional rival as a home underdog. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a close win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in each of their last three games. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: he lost all five games with the Raiders never scoring more than 17 points. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow grew up in Ohio — so he is used to the cold weather. Burrow comes into this game rested after the Bengals clinched home field in the opening round of the playoffs two weeks ago. Their team dominated by second-stringers still were competitive against the Browns — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: These teams played in Las Vegas on November 21st when the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 32-13 victory. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — including six of these last nine circumstances. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). THE SITUATION: Boston (21-21) has won three games in a row after their 119-100 upset win at Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Philadelphia (23-17) had their seven-game winning streak end with their 109-98 upset loss to Charlotte as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston made 51.3% of their shots in the upset win against the Pacers which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Celtics have been a disappointment on the offensive end of the court this season. They rank just 23rd in the league in Offensive Rating. Too often, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown settle for isolation basketball rather than getting a better rhythm to their offense to generate better shots. Rookie head coach Ime Udoka has not offered much schematically to correct these issues either. The Celtics did allow Indiana to make 46.5% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Boston has been outstanding on the defensive end this season — they rank 5th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Even after Wednesday’s game, the Celtics have held their last five opponents to 96.0 Points-Per-Game on 42.8% shooting. The Under is 33-15-1 in Boston’s last 49 games after a double-digit victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. The Celtics have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia allowed the Hornets to make 51.7% of their shots in the loss on Wednesday. The 76ers still rank 3rd in the league in their last ten games in Defensive Efficiency. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Under is also 7-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Sixers are just 8-9 this season on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home. The 76ers have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road (Boston: 8-13 on the road) — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are missing some players including Danny Green and Shake Milton. Marcus Smart is questionable for the Celtics. The Sixers pulled the upset against Boston on December 20th with their 108-103 victory — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Celtics have also played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss. These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (507) and the Philadelphia 76ers (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). THE SITUATION: Iowa (11-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 87-78 loss at Wisconsin as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Indiana (12-3) won their fifth game in their last six with their 73-60 victory against Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa allowed the Badgers to make 50.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Hawkeyes should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road. And while Iowa has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games including the last four of these circumstances. The Hawkeyes are an outstanding offensive team that ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make the most of their scoring opportunities as they lead the nation with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Iowa also leads the nation with the lowest block rate in the country — and that is a great attribute to have when facing the Hoosiers’ Trayce Jackson-Davis who blocks 10.5% of the shots in his direction this season. Iowa returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +24.2 net Points-Per-Game. The Hawkeyes made 49.5% of his shots at home which generates 93.1 PPG. They also hold their opponents to just 68.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 15-6-3 ATS in their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Big Ten opponent. The Hoosiers preceded their victory against the Golden Gophers with a 67-51 win at home against Ohio State — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning two straight games by double-digits against conference opponents. Indiana is too loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 19.5% of their possessions, ranking 209th in the nation. The Hawkeyes do force turnovers — their opponents turn the ball over in 20.0% of their possessions, ranking 107th in the country. Now the Hoosiers go back on the road for just the fifth time in a true road game. They have lost three of those four games while making just 44.7% of their shots. Indiana is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 60% on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Hoosiers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored. 25* CBB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (840) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (839). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (9-5) has won four of their last five games after their 63-60 upset win at Valparaiso as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri State (11-6) and their three-game winning streak end with an 85-84 upset loss at Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical situation for the Under. The Salukis have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Southern Illinois nailed 55.6% of their shots from the field in that game — but they are still only making 43.1% of their shots on the road. The Salukis score just 59.7 Points-Per-Game on the road — but they allow only 62.7 PPG in those eight games. Southern Illinois has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Salukis have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Missouri State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Missouri State allowed the Panthers to make 51.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Bears are second in the Missouri Valley Conference so far this season by holding their conference opponents to just 50.0% shooting inside the arc after four games. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Missouri State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against winning teams. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia dominated a stout Wolverines team — they went into the locker room with a 27-3 lead. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the first half in their last game. Georgia has one of the best defenses in college football in years — they held their opponents to just 9.6 Points-Per-Game and 259.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season. But the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are tough to beat when they have a strong offensive attack that comes close to matching their elite defense from season to season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread 22 of their last 32 games on the road after passing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. The X-factor for this Bulldogs’ team is having fourth-year junior J.T. Daniels as an option if Georgia falls behind early once again in this rematch of the SEC Championship Game. The former five-star USC recruit is a gunslinger who led the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record in his four starts last year with the team scoring 37.3 PPG. Daniels unlocks the big-play potential of this offense with his strong arm. Head coach Kirby Smart has been reluctant to turn to Daniels since it would throw fuel on the fire of a quarterback controversy — but that concern goes out the window in the final game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 15 games played on a neutral field when favored, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. It is telling that the bookies installed Georgia as the small favorite. Outside the Sagarin Power Ratings (one I don’t pay much attention to, for what that is worth), most of the various power ranking systems conclude that the Bulldogs should be favored (by at least three points). While that does not mean everything to me, it does mean something. Alabama has probably played their best two games of the season in their last two in beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and then overwhelming Cincinnati. Do these two games represent the continued growth and development of this team under head coach Nick Saban? Sure, I give credit to Saban for having his team peaking at the right time. On other hand, college football teams tend to not play their best three games consecutively — so I do expect a performance that comes back down to the season-long numbers that the Crimson Tide demonstrated (that the power rankings systems are evaluating in listing them as a dog now). This Alabama team that survived close scares against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida (and who lost to a backup quarterback leading Texas A&M) may not be able to help themselves from suffering a letdown. As it is, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 21 points. They raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead against the Bearcats — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their last opponent to no more than three points in the first half of their last game. Alabama dominated Cincinnati in the ground game by rushing for 301 yards and outgaining them by +227 net rushing yards. But the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Alabama dominated the Bearcats by outgaining them by +264 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January (when they tend to be overvalued by the betting public) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances in the National Championship Game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia will have an extra edge on their mind in wanting revenge from their 41-21 upset loss as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Remember, the Bulldogs did not need to win that game — so some of their best plays and concepts (especially on defense) were held back in case of this rematch. Alabama had to leave everything on the table in that game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think the most important evidence in assessing the Over/Under proposition for this game is a quote from Nick Saban when assessing the philosophical shift he oversaw at Alabama in the last few seasons. Saban said: "It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren't going to score. You were always going to be in the game. I'm telling you. It ain't that way anymore." When confronted with the must-win game for them in the SEC Championship Game against a Georgia defense some were describing as the best unit in college football in years, Saban took an aggressive stance against Kirby Smart’s defense. The Crimson Tide used pace to their advantage by averaging about one additional play for every two minutes their offense was on the field. While Alabama averaged 2.32 plays per minute during the regular season, they amped that up to 2.75 plays per minute against Georgia. The Tide raced out to a 24-17 lead at halftime which helped to get the Bulldogs out of rhythm — and they then controlled the second half. Saban has commented that recent rule changes make it tough even on the best defenses. Playing at a fast tempo puts defenses on their heels and prevents them from substituting players until there is a dead ball. Alabama is highly likely to deploy this strategy again. Against Cincinnati, the formula for success was running the football since the strength of the Bearcats defense was their secondary. The strength of the Bulldogs defense is their front seven — so going after their secondary makes sense. Quarterback Bryce Young passed for 421 yards against Georgia with a 9.64 Yards-Per-Attempt average with seven passes generating at least 20 yards. Granted, he had the services of junior wide receiver John Metchie who caught six passes in the first half before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Alabama still has an embarrassment of riches in talent at wide receiver — especially with some freshmen who have had more than a month to continue their development. The Crimson Tide was third in the nation by scoring 41.4 Points-Per-Game— they are prepared to survive high-scoring games. It is telling that Alabama has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing in January. They have also played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Crimson Tide have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least 21 points. And while Alabama flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 218 total yards, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 225 total yards in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Georgia took a page out of the Alabama playbook by using tempo to put the Michigan defense on their heels early and often. the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. Bennett had eight receivers with multiple catches against the Wolverines. This is the approach I expect to see from the Bulldogs in this rematch — and I suspect Smart will think he needs to put 30 points on the scoreboard to win this game even with his elite defense. Georgia averaged 7.73 Yards-Per-Play against Michigan — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have generated 328 and 340 passing yards in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the second-lowest total in an Alabama game all season with the SEC Championship being the only game when the Tide had an Over/Under in the 40s. The Crimson Tide have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I expect both teams to get at least into the mid-20s in what should be a fast-paced game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders come off two straight upset wins after they beat Denver at home by a 17-13 score as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago. Las Vegas has benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least two games in a row. Las Vegas got outgained in yardage by the Colts, 362-326. The Raiders have been fortunate with a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game on the season. They only managed to rush for 85 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has not been an effective team on offense — especially after Jon Gruden was let go by the franchise. The Raiders rank 25th in Third Down Percentage and 29th in Red Zone Scoring. They expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — but it remains a question how effective they can be playing through their injuries. Las Vegas is scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have scored more than 17 points just twice in their last eight games. They are 4-4 at home despite getting outscored by -4.4 PPG. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in January. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Raiders.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas wants to avenge a 28-14 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles on October 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 14 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us  — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-7) won their third game in their last four contests with a 23-7 win against Houston as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-4) is on a five-game winning streak after their 20-19 win at Baltimore as a 7-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The news I was waiting on has just been confirmed this afternoon — the 49ers will be without left tackle Trent Williams. The future Hall of Famer who has probably been the most effective left tackle in the game this season is out with an elbow injury that left him questionable all week. Not only does that hurt in the protection against Aaron Donald in the San Francisco passing game, but Williams plays a vital role in the Niners’ run-blocking. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting quarterback despite his painful thumb injury — but it remains a question how effective he can be with this injury. Garoppolo playing this game probably speaks more to the readiness of rookie quarterback Trey Lance. While he is uber-athletic, Lance holds on to the ball too long and lacks a firm grasp of playing the position at the NFL level after not playing in almost two years after taking last year off with North Dakota State. As it is, the 49ers have only averaged 20.4 Points-Per-Game in their five divisional matchups this season. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by double-digits. The 49ers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Francisco’s defense has been playing well — they have held their last four opponents to no more than 23 points. They have held their last three opponents to 13.3 PPG and 266.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as a road underdog. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has held their last five opponents to no more than 23 points — and they lead the NFL in sacks which make the loss of Williams on the offensive line for San Francisco a game-changer. the Rams have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 300.3 total YPG. Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 35 passes for 309 yards in their win against the Ravens last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Los Angeles has played all 6 games Under the Total. The Rams go back home where they have played a decisive 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be motivated to avenge a 31-10 loss in San Francisco on November 15th — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) is on a five-game losing streak after their 20-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 26-14 upset win against Cleveland as a 1-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams have slim playoff hopes still alive — the winner of this game needs Indianapolis to get upset by Jacksonville as a two-touchdown underdog. That is not likely to happen, of course. And it sure looked like the Steelers put everything into their Monday night win against the Browns in what was Ben Roethlisberger’s likely last game at home in Heinz Field. An emotional letdown appears imminent. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -9.6 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 29.6 PPG and generate 398.0 total Yards-Per-Game. I have little doubt that head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. The Ravens want to end their losing streak — and they would love to end Roethlisberger’s career with a loss. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. It will be Tyler Huntley under center with Lamar Jackson still nursing his ankle injury. The backup has played well in Jackson’s absence — he has completed 67.5% of his 162 passes with 955 passing yards and another 222 rushing yards on a 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry average in six games. Baltimore is 5-3 at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh won the first game between these two teams by a  20-19 score as a 4-point underdog on December 5th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 25-22 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (9-7) is on a four-game winning streak after their 20-16 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Injuries and COVID play a defining role in this game. The Eagles have 11 players on the COVID list. Running back Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury — and Philly may only have rookie Kenneth Gainwell healthy and available in their backfield tonight. Right tackle Lane Johnson is dealing with a knee - and Jalen Hurts is less than 100% with an ankle injury. Given that Philadelphia has already clinched a wildcard spot in the NFC playoffs, but they cannot secure a home game next week and have little idea who they will be playing, rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to rest key players including Hurts. As it is, the Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Philadelphia has played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after a win by seven points or less against an NFC East rival — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Eagles have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after winning two in a row against NFC East foes. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. Philadelphia does not have too much luxury to rest all their starters on defense given roster limitations. They have not allowed more than 18 points in five straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 247.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Dallas has some COVID issues themselves most notably with rookie sensation Micah Parsons out for this game. Running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury — and Ezekiel Elliott has been saddled with a knee injury for much of the season. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is out the season with a torn ACL. But Dallas still has plenty to play for despite having clinched the NFC East title when ensures them no worse than the fourth seed. Losses by Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday would put the Cowboys in the position to take the second seed in the NFC playoffs — so head coach Mike McCarthy needs to play for the win tonight. Outside of their 56-point outburst against a Washington team ravaged by COVID and playing after limited practice time, Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five games. The Cowboys have not given up more than 20 points in six of their last eight contests. Dallas has played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 range.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas won the first meeting between these two teams by a 41-21 score. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road to their opponent. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFL Saturday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). THE SITUATION: Brown (8-8) has lost four games in a row after their 77-73 upset loss to Pennsylvania as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Harvard (8-4) is on a three-game winning streak after their 77-69 win against Howard as a 7-point favorite back on December 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Harvard has had their last three scheduled games postponed because of COVID issues. They face rust concerns taking the court for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, the Crimson have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Harvard plays their fourth straight game at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning their last two games on their home court. This is the Ivy League debut for the Crimson who have played a pretty light schedule that ranks 303rd most difficult according to the metrics at kenpom. They are making only 40.7% of their shots in their last five games — and they have a 43.3% field goal percentage in their seven home games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Crimson will not have the advantage of cheering fans either given the restriction of fans attending games given COVID regulations. Head coach Tommy Amaker recruits well for this team — but Brown head coach Mike Martin has followed his lead by bringing long and athletic talent to his program which makes this team stand out in the league. Led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (when the Ivy last played in 2019-20) in Jaylen Gainey who protects the rim down low, the Bears ranks 117th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. That defensive ranking is more impressive considering that Brown ranks 110th in strength of schedule at kenpom. The Bears have beaten Bradley on a neutral court while losing to North Carolina by just a 94-87 score (with the score tied going into the final ten minutes of the game) and losing to Colorado by just two points. Brown has also played Creighton, Maryland, Syracuse, and Vermont — this is a battle-tested group. They were without their top playmaker, Tamenang Cho in four early games including the narrow loss in Chapel Hill. Having played three times since Christmas, Martin’s team is in midseason form. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing four of their last five games. And while they have played seven straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Brown is 4-6 on the road this season — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Brown swept the two regular-season games against Harvard in 2019 before the season got canceled because of COVID. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Harvard has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against Ivy League opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Brown Bears (879) plus the points versus the Harvard Crimson (880). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (6-5) has lost four of their last six games after their 72-62 loss to Georgia Tech in overtime as a 5-point underdog on December 21st. UT-Arlington (6-7) won their third straight game with their 62-57 victory against Troy as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia State made only 28.2% of their shots against the Yellow Jackets which was the worst shooting effort of the season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. And while the Panthers got outrebounded by a 51-33 margin, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Georgia State returns all five starters from the group that lost in the Sun Belt Conference tournament championship game last season. COVID has slowed this team down so far this season but they are mostly healthy now in making their conference debut tonight. They are 4-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by a whopping +39.0 net Points-Per-Game. The Panthers make 48.9% of their shots at home which is generating 88.0 PPG — and they are holding their opponents just 33.8% shooting and 49.0 PPG. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Panthers are 25th in the nation by making 38.0% of their 3-point shots — and they nail 39.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. UT-Arlington is 250th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots from behind the arc — and they rank 272nd in the nation with their opponents making 37.0% of their shots from 3-point range when playing away from home. The Mavericks played their second-best defensive game of the season by holding the Trojans to 30.0% shooting — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no better than 33% shooting. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing their second game in a seven-day span. They go back on the road for the first time since December 19th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games after playing their last three games on the road. The Mavericks are just 1-6 on the road where they are scoring only 55.1 PPG on 37.3% shooting. They are getting outscored by -16.8 PPG on the road. UT-Arlington has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State should force plenty of turnovers tonight — they rank 46th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions. UT-Arlington is 324th in the nation by turning the ball over in 22.5% of their possessions — and they have turned it over in 23.1% of their possessions on the road. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (760) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (759). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (6-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 87-79 loss in overtime against Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Michigan State (12-2) won their seventh straight game with a 73-67 win at Northwestern as a 3-point favorite on January 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have allowed at least 70 points in nine of their fourteen games this season — and they play at the 9th fastest possession length in the nation so they are comfortable playing higher-scoring games under head coach Fred Hoiberg. Nebraska has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Cornhuskers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation although much of that is by design since Hoiberg wants to sacrifice defensive rebounding for potential fast break scoring chances. They have been out-rebounded by at least eight boards per game in their last three contests — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded by at least six boards in three straight games. They rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.5% of their misses on the offensive — and now they travel to East Lansing to face a Spartans’ team that is 47th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. Nebraska has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 85.8 Points-Per-Game. Now the Cornhuskers go back on the road where they are allowing 90.3 PPG. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Nebraska has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total in the 140s. Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. The Spartans held Northwestern to just 32.3% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But Michigan State only made 38.5% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the lowest mark in their last eight games and the second-lowest field goal percentage all season. Even after that shooting effort, the Spartans have shot 48.6% from the field in their last five games. They rank 15th in the nation by making 38.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 40% of their 3-pointers in their three Big Ten games. They should make plenty of 3s against this Cornhuskers defense that ranks 281st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.0% of their 3-pointers — and they are allowing their Big Ten foes to nail 44.3% of their shots from downtown. Five-star freshman Max Christie is finding a rhythm having scored in double-digits in four of his last six games. And head coach Tom Izzo has found an answer at point guard by splitting time between Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. They return home to the Breslin Center where they are scoring 81.3 PPG on 47.0% shooting. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Spartans’ last 4 games at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams score at least 75 PPG. Michigan State has played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by at least 12.5 points. Nebraska has played 30 of their last 45 road games — and 10 of their last 15 road games — Over the Total when an underdog in the 12.5 to 18 point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). THE SITUATION: LSU (12-1) lost their first game of the season in a 70-55 loss at Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on December 22nd. Kentucky (11-2) has won four games in a row with their 92-48 victory against High Point as a 27-point favorite on December 31st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU should respond with a strong effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. The Tigers played their worst game of the season against Auburn. Their 28.6% shooting percentage was the lowest of the season for them — and the 43.4% mark they allowed those Tigers to hit was actually their worst defensive effort of the year. LSU is the top-rated team in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom. They return home where they are 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +32.7 Points-Per-Game. They score 84.6 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. They hold their guests to 32.1% shooting and just 51.9 PPG. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games when favored. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Kentucky shot 59.1% from the field against High Point which was the best shooting mark for them all season. And the 31.1% shooting they allowed was also the best defensive mark for them all year. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning at least three games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Wildcats play their first road game away from home since December 11th. Kentucky is just 1-2 away from home this season — and they allow teams not playing in their Rupp Arena to make 47.1% of their shots. The Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Kentucky does not get to the free-throw line either — they rank 320nd in the nation in free throw rate. Not getting freebies against a team that is so good on defense will be tough.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (622) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (621). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh still has a narrow path to make the playoffs — but the chances are remote so the weight of playoff expectations are not likely to be heavy. Instead, tonight’s game is being viewed as Big Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at home at Heinz Field. It should be a wild and emotional night for the fans and the team that will want to send out the future Hall of Fame a winner. Roethlisberger loves playing against his childhood team. Big Ben has a 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career with 42 touchdown passes and just 22 interceptions. He has a career Passer Rating of 94.2 against the Browns. Even better, the Steelers have a perfect 14-0 record at home against Cleveland under head coach Mike Tomlin. They should play well tonight after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh has covered the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 21 points. The Steelers fell behind early and went into halftime with a 23-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game. Pittsburgh had a -2 net turnover margin in that game as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Steelers should also play better defense — they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Pittsburgh does get back T.J. Watt back on defense — and they have a 7-2 straight up record this season when Watt plays at least 60% of the snaps on defense. The Steelers are 5-2 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored at home by up to three points. Cleveland may be flat after getting eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday’s results. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road. And while Cleveland has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering two of their last three games. The Browns stay on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the last two weeks of the season. They are also just 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games against AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (12-3) is on a four-game winning streak with their 24-22 victory against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite enjoying a +4 net turnover margin at home last week against the Browns, the Packers only managed to gain 311 yards in their narrow victory against a Cleveland team hit hard by COVID. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 34 passes but for only 202 yards. Green Bay needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Browns to gain 408 total yards in that game. They seized an early lead and took a 21-12 advantage into halftime before only scoring a field goal in the second half. Expect a similar game script against a Vikings’ team playing without Kirk Cousins. Mistakes may be the biggest threat to the Packers tonight — so they are likely to rely heavily on their running game and be satisfied with grinding out a lower-scoring game that re-establishes the confidence of their defense. Green Bay allows only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 338.9 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Lambeau Field. They have played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota will have to rely on backup Sean Mannion at quarterback with Cousins out after a positive COVID test. The former Oregon State has not taken a snap in a regular-season game since 2019. In his career, he has completed only 57.5% of his 74 NFL passes with a mild 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Vikings are going to rely heavily on running back Dalvin Cook who was removed from the COVID list and will play tonight. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want to shorten the game by burning time off the clock — and he has had success slowing Rodgers down in his coaching career. Zimmer has led Minnesota to a 6-4-1 record against the Packers in his last 11 games as head coach of the Vikings. Green Bay has only scored more than 23 points against Zimmer’s Minnesota teams twice in their last six encounters. The Packers average 21.6 first downs per game with their offense on the field for 32:34 minutes per game — and the Vikings have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 32 minutes in Time of Possession and 21 first downs per game. Green Bay only averages 0.7 turnovers per game with Rodgers rarely throwing interceptions — and Minnesota has played 6 straight games Under the Total against opponents who do not commit more than 0.75 turnovers per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games — and the Packers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-7) has won three in a row with their 34-10 victory against the New York Giants as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (6-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 56-14 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team is a mess on offense right now after posting their three lowest yardage totals in the last three weeks. They managed only 224 total yards against the Cowboys on December 12th before picking up just 237 yards against the Eagles in a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on December 21st. Washington only gained 257 yards last week in their debacle in Dallas. The Football Team wants to run the ball to set up the pass but they have only gained 148 yards on the ground in their last two games. To compound matters, star running back Antonio Gibson has been declared out for this game due to COVID. The Football Team has played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Washington has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points to an NFC East foe. At least the Football Team should play better on defense after getting embarrassed last week. Dallas generated 497 yards of offense against them — but Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Philadelphia has not allowed more than 18 points in four straight games. They should stymie the Football Team this afternoon with their stout run defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Philly held the Giants to just 108 passing yards and 192 total yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles held Washington to just 237 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 350 yards in two straight games. But look for the Philly offense to struggle — they have played 55 of their last 79 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Jalen Hurts is not 100% with an ankle issue that has limited him to just 45 rushing yards on ten carries in his last two games. Hurts is also regressing in the passing game. Since Week 11, he is completing only 58.2% of his passes which is 26th in the NFL during that span. He has thrown only three touchdown passes with four interceptions since Week 11 — and his Passer Rating of 73.7 since that time ranks 24th in the league. He will also be without his best running back in Miles Sanders who is out with a hand injury. The Eagles have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Washington is a mess at quarterback with the league seeming to get a book on journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera suggested both Heinicke and Kyle Allen could play today. I do expect a spirited effort — and the Football Team has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical play — and we are getting some value with the number with bettors enamored with Lane Kiffin’s offensive acumen. Baylor has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears upset the Cowboys despite only gaining 242 total yards in the game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They forced four turnovers to help them enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 16.7 PPG. Mississippi has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels did allow 420 yards to the Bulldogs with 336 of those yards in the air. Ole Miss has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. Despite those numbers, the Rebels’ defense has steadily improved as the season went on under defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. Their bend-but-don’t-break 3-3-5 defense held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Mississippi only allowed three opponents to score more than 26 points against them — and that only happened once after October 9th. The Ole Miss scoring has been down as well — they have not scored more than 31 points in seven straight contests. The Rebels have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total playing away from home when playing with at least two weeks in-between games. Ole Miss has played 4 straight Unders when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Baylor has played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 3-47 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Michigan averages 5.3 YPC in their ground game — but Georgia has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 4.75 YPC and they have played 6 straight Unders against opponents who average at least 5.25 YPC. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing games in two straight games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.

But this is also a flawed Georgia offense. They did not score an offensive touchdown against Clemson to open the season. And while they averaged 39.4 PPG for the season, the defenses in the SEC do not appear very stout in hindsight. Alabama was the best defense that the Bulldogs played after that opening game — and after scoring on two of their first three drives, Georgia failed to score on seven of their last nine drives despite trailing in the game. Quarterback Stetson Bennett is not nearly as effective when given a comfortable cushion on the scoreboard. Remove Alabama from consideration and the Michigan defense is better than all the other defenses in the SEC that the Bulldogs have played. They allowed only 16.1 PPG and 316.3 total YPG. Ohio State is the highest-rated scoring and yardage offense in the nation — but they only scored 27 points and ran for 64 yards despite trailing most of that game against the Wolverines. Michigan’s star safety Daxton Hill appears cleared to play tonight after being in the COVID protocols — reports from last night are that he participated in team meetings in Miami after not being with the team most of the week (and the updated CDC guidelines would have required him to be in quarantine if he was still symptomatic and lacked a negative COVID test). The Wolverines have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And while Michigan has scored at least 42 points in three straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has played 6 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Head coach Kirby Smart will want to run the football, limit mistakes, and lean on his outstanding defense that will be chippy to re-establish themselves after getting embarrassed by Alabama. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field by 7.5 to 10 points. Michigan’s offense can sputter — but they make big plays in their pass rush led by potential top-five pick Aidan Hutchinson. 25* CFB Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the Cotton Bowl college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama played the best game of their season to overwhelm the Bulldogs and secure their spot in the playoffs. Even with Nick Saban having four weeks to prepare for this game, a letdown is likely. The Crimson Tide is staring at a Group of Five opponent — even after Saban warning them how good this Bearcats team is. As it is, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they raced out to a 24-17 halftime lead, Alabama has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Generating a +2 net turnover edge in that game played a big role — but the Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover advantage. This remains a team that was just 5-5 ATS against teams playing in bowl games this season. Besides losing to a multi-loss Texas A&M team using a backup quarterback, they survived one-possession games against LSU, Arkansas, Florida and a four-overtime affair with Auburn. Incidentally, they were laying at least 14.5 points as the favorite in all those games. Up until this point, this year’s incarnation is not as dominant as Saban’s National Championship group last season. The offensive line has been given up too many sacks — Bama ranks 67th in Sack Rate allowed and that drops to 75th on passing downs. The running back room is depleted with injures. Drives stall inside the 10-yard line given their ranking 66th in the nation in Goal-to-Go scoring rate. And there are some tough injuries on both sides of the ball with starting cornerback Josh Jobe out with a foot injury and wide receiver John Metchie out the season with the torn ACL he suffered against Georgia. Alabama may not have a reliable second option at receiver (even with all the young talent) to compliment Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. Cincinnati is loaded with talent in their secondary — headlined by three future NFL players in cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant along with safety Bryan Cook. This gives defensive coordinator Mike Tressel some intriguing matchup options. Tressel is one of the best in the business with an established track record as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He can do some things to make sophomore quarterback Bryce Young uncomfortable. Cincinnati has momentum with three straight point spread covers after their comfortable victory against a talented Cougars team. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Despite being on offense for only 19:41 minutes, they averaged 8.89 Yards-Per-Play to generate 400 yards of offense against Houston — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. They held the Cougars to just 86 rushing yards in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. The defense allows only 16.1 PPG. They are led by a four-year starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder who will be drafted into the NFL. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against non-conference opponents, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has proven they can match the physicality of elite programs in their 24-13 victory against Notre Dame this season and their 3-point loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year. The Bearcats might have upset the Bulldogs last year if not for the first half injury to left tackle James Hudson — they surrendered six sacks in the second half. The Fighting Irish have only lost twice in South Bend in the last four seasons — to Georgia and this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will not be intimidated. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) is on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan State (10-2) won their second game in their last three games with their 30-27 upset win against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite before the news that quarterback Kenny Pickett would forego this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Spartans are now laying about 3.5 points in most locations — and they will be without their top offensive player in running back Kenneth Walker who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. So, is the value of Pickett worth 8 points plus the loss of Walker? I like Pickett — but I don’t think so. Let’s talk Pitt. They have a capable backup in redshirt junior Nick Patti who has been Pickett’s backup for three seasons. Patti completed 23 of 37 passes substituting for Pickett in September of his freshman year against Delaware in 2017 for 271 yards with two touchdown passes. Patti has completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season. In his career, Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for a 64.5% completion percentage, a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt mark, and only one interception. A key tell regarding how Pitt feels about him was on a fourth-and-one in the second half against Virginia when Pickett had to leave the field because of a short-term injury. Rather than kick a field goal or dial up a running play, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple trusted Patti to deliver a pass — and he drew a pass interference penalty for the first down. Patti has practiced with the first-team offense preparing for this game — and that includes Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison who caught 93 balls for 1479 yards and 17 touchdowns. Patti should have success against a Spartans defense that ranked 106th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 17 or more points. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they held the Demon Deacons to just 295 yards on a just 3.47 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Michigan State relied on Walker to take almost 60% of their rushing attempts this season — he averaged a robust 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Freshman Jordan Simmons averages 4.2 YPC — but he is a dropoff. The Spartans will struggle to run the football against this stout Panthers' run defense that ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Pitt has had a top-ten run defense for two straight seasons under head coach Pat Narduzzi — and they have held their last six opponents to under 3.0 YPC. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has not been as effective when relied on to be the primary source of the offense. He comes off his two worst games this season in a drubbing against Ohio State before their upset win against Penn State. Pro Football Focus gave him grades below 60 for both games — and he had three turnover-worthy plays with zero Big Time Throws in those contests. Sparty relies on big plays — Thorne had a PFF rating of 92.0 on throws of at least air yards. But on throws less than 20 air yards, his PFF grade drops to 72.0 (C- range if graded by a teacher). The Panthers rank a solid 36th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win at home. They are also just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Look for the Panthers to be inspired to prove they were more than just a Heisman Trophy Finalist at quarterback — and Narduzzi would love to beat his old team where he served as defensive coordinator for years. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) won their fifth straight game to close out the regular season with a 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. Iowa State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson took a step back this season due to the drop-off in play at quarterback. Sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to fill the big shoes left by Trevor Lawrence who left for the NFL after his junior season. Yet the Tigers got their offense going late in the season by scoring at least 30 points in each of their games during their five-game winning streak. Led by the running back duo of Kobe Pace and Will Shipley, Clemson became run-focused who averaged 171 rushing YPG for the season with 598 rushing yards in their last two contests. And the Tigers defense remained elite all season — they allowed only 15.0 Points-Per-Game and 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Clemson defense ranked third in the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed and third in Finishing Drives. They also only allowed eight “explosive” drives that averaged at least 10 Yards-Per-Play in the 154 drives they defended. Head coach Dabo Swinney lost both his coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, to head coaching jobs at Virginia and Oklahoma — but he promoted from within with assistants very familiar with the schemes and hungry to make an impression. None of Swinney’s players opted out for this bowl game — this is the first game of the 2021-22 season for this group who should be very motivated. The Tigers should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa State had high expectations but those dreams were snatched from early losses to Iowa and Baylor in their first four games. They crushed the Horned Frogs to end their regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Iowa State offense will be without star running back Breece Hall who has opted out for the NFL draft. The Cyclones are left with just sophomore Jirehl Brock at running back who averaged only 2.1 yards after contact in a disappointing campaign this season. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy was also underwhelming this year — he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and fumbled the football another seven times. He was sacked 21 times behind an offensive line that ranked only 47th in Havoc Rate Allowed — a frightening number when facing this elite Clemson defensive line. The Cyclones defense ranked outside the top-70 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and they were 74th in Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W12-D5-L1) last played an English Premier League match on December 16th when they settled for a 2-2 draw at Tottenham. Leicester City (W6-D4-L7) last played on an EPL match on Sunday when they lost at Manchester City by a 6-3 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams just played on Wednesday in the Caribou Cup with the Liverpool B-team pulling out a 4-3 victory in a shootout. The Reds had their last EPL match with Leeds United postponed because of COVID. The Liverpool defense has been leaky as of late after giving up 2.87 expected goals to the HotSpurs nine days ago. The Reds have allowed six goals in their last three matches. They do get back holding midfielder Fabinho and defenseman Virgil Van Dijk for this match — but they are coming off the COVID list so they may not be back to full fitness just yet even if they had only “mild” symptoms. But the Liverpool attack has been clicking after scoring eight goals in their last three matches. They have generated at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each of the EPL contests since November 17th against West Ham. They are tied with Man City with 50 goals for the most goals in the league (with a match in hand) — and they generate 2.4 xG when playing on the road. Leicester City has scored 12 goals in their last four matches in all competitions. Their problem is on the other side of the pitch where they have allowed 14 goals in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have conceded 12 goals in their last four contests. The Foxes have conceded 33 goals in EPL play — the fourth-most in the league. Their 1.69 expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL is fifth to the bottom. Leicester City has also conceded the third most Big Chances (with a goal expectancy of 35% or higher). When playing at home, the Foxes are generating 1.51 xG with 11 goals in their last three matches.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen at least four combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has seen at last four combined goals in eight of their last 11 contests. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: If the Dallas Cowboys (unfortunate, for us) blowout victory against Washington last night re-affirmed to me, it is to not underestimate the physical, mental, and emotional toll COVID outbreaks have on teams. Not that we should become zombies to simply fade teams dealing with significant outbreaks — and good luck finding matchups where only one team is dealing with that problem — but it is certainly a factor. We hope that Omicron is resulting in milder cases, but we just don’t know yet (the “analytics” are too early to evaluate). And we think professional athletes are in the best position to overcome. But dudes are still getting sick for a few days. A momentum swing like an early interception (as from last night) can play into the game script putting one team on defense for an extended period — and then suddenly a team dealing with the challenges and complications from COVID all week can find themselves on their heels. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. On defense, stalwarts in linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Ellis along with strong safety Malcolm Jenkins who all played important roles in shutting out Tom Brady last week are now out as well. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). Besides all that, the Saints are in a letdown spot after the shocking shutout victory against the Buccaneers. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as an underdog of six or more points against an NFC South rival. The Saints have covered the point spread in their last two games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering point spread expectations in two of their last three games. New Orleans benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints return home where they are just 1-4 this season while getting outscored by 27.8 Points-Per-Game and surrendering 402.0 total Yards-Per-Game. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. The Saints also remain without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. Admittedly, the Dolphins have been feasting on the lesser teams in the league with less than ideal quarterback situations — but this is a team that is confident with a formula for success. And this team is pretty healthy with few COVID cases. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory at home. They had covered the point spread in five straight games before their narrow win over the Jets last week - and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points. Tua Tagovailoa has found a rhythm under center as of late — he has completed 100 of his 129 passes in his last four games for a 77.8% completion percentage with 943 passing yards, seven touchdown passes, and just three interceptions. And while Miami allowed just 228 yards to the Jets last week, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Brian Flores in December. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-8) lost their second straight game in a 27-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (10-4) won their third straight game with a 21-6 victory in New York against the Giants as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys continue to excel on defense after holding the Giants to just 302 total yards. Dallas forced four turnovers in the game — they lead the NFL with 31 takeaways and 21 interceptions. They have held their last three opponents to just 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 310.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Cowboys have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Dallas has won four of their last six games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six contests. But injuries are slowing this team down on offense. The biggest loss is Tyron Smith at left tackle — he might be the most important player on the team outside of Dak Prescott. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed with injuries this season. The Cowboys do get running back Tony Pollard back tonight but it remains a question how effective he will be with his foot injury. Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored. Washington only managed 237 yards in their loss at Philadelphia. Granted, the Football Team had journeyman Garrett Gilbert under center — but he played well in completing 20 of 31 passes for 194 yards in numbers that looked similar to what Taylor Heinicke was providing them. Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen have been cleared to play — but Heinicke has not practiced all week. Aaron Rodgers is the exception that proves the rule that quarterbacks can avoid practice all week and still have their “A-Game” on Sunday. COVID has limited Washington’s ability to prepare and even game-plan. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner had to tentatively prepare three approaches since he had no idea if it would be Heinicke, Allen, or Gilbert again under center. These two teams played just two weeks ago in a 27-20 victory for the Cowboys in a game where the Football Team only gained 224 yards with both Heinicke and Allen getting snaps. Washington is scoring only 18.3 PPG and averaging 253.o total YPG in their last three games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two in a row. And while the Football Team surrendered 519 yards to the Eagles last week, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. Washington stayed competitive by forcing turnovers and not giving the ball up themselves — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record, the Football Team has played 14 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC East rivals — and Dallas has played 5 straight Unders against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6-1) has won two of their last three games after a 19-13 win against Tennessee as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (10-4) has won seven straight games after their 34-28 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh eked out that game with the Titans despite only gaining 170 total yards. They have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Steelers enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin in that game which was the third straight game where they won the turnover battle — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after having a +1 or better net turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where the Under is 37-14-1 in their last 52 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Patrick Mahomes completed 31 of 47 passes for 410 yards in the win — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Kansas City did allow 192 rushing yards in the game — but they have played 37 of their last 55 games under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Chiefs have played two straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Kansas City defense is playing much better at this part of the season — they have held six of their last seven opponents to no more than 17 points. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog. And in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 6 times. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). THE SITUATION: Brentford (W5-D5-L6) comes off a 2-1 win against Watford in their most recent match in the English Premier League on December 10th. Brighton and Hove Albion (W4-D8-L4) last played on December 15th when they lost 1-0 at home to Wolverhampton.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brentford was blanked in their most recent match in the Caribou Cup on Wednesday in a 2-0 loss to Chelsea. The Bees are limited in their attack — they are 15th in the EPL in shot attempts per 90 minutes. When playing on the road, Brentford has only 8.6 expected goals (xG) in their eight matches so far in the EPL this season. But Brentford does play well on defense. They rank sixth in the league in non-penalty kick expected goals allowed (xGA). They have conceded the sixth-fewest shots per 90 minutes. On the road, the Bees improve to four best in xGA. Brighton struggles to score goals — they have only scored three times in their last six matches while getting blanked three times. They have not scored more than once in those six matches — and they will be without one of their best offensive playmakers in Yves Bissouma who is out with an injury. The Seagulls average only 1.0 non-penalty kick xG per match — and they rank 15th in Big Chances created (with a 35% or higher expected success rate). Playing at home at the American Express Community Stadium, Brighton has scored only two times in their last five matches with three blanks. But the Seagulls are tough on defense — they are fifth in the EPL by conceding only 17 goals this season while also ranking fifth best in xGA. They have allowed the third-fewest Big Chances.

FINAL TAKE: Brighton consistently grinds out low-scoring matches under manage Graham Potter. They have played six straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 31-14 victory against Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. New England (9-5) had their seven-game winning streak end last Saturday with their 27-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills should build off their momentum from last week as they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Over is also 16-7-1 in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 30.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging 397.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are missing two wide receivers this afternoon with both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley on the COVID list — but they do get Emmanuel Sanders back from a knee injury that kept him out last week and they still have Stefon Diggs. Buffalo will be missing a key piece on defense with linebacker Star Lotulelei for reasons only detailed as “personal.” Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bills have also played 7 straight Overs as an underdog. New England gained 365 yards last week in their loss to the Colts — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 45 passes for 299 yards with two touchdown passes in a losing effort — a far cry from the mere three passes he threw against the Bills the prior week. Now Jones returns home to Foxboro where he has been more prolific with head coach Bill Belichick seemingly more comfortable to let him air it out. Jones is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 267.1 passing YPG mark with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in his seven starts at home. In his seven starts on the road, Jones’ completion percentage drops to 66.8% with a 185.4 passing YPG mark with five touchdown passes and five interceptions and a QBR of 84.5. The Patriots are scoring 30.0 PPG and averaging 388.4 total YPG at home. They have played 4 straight Overs when playing a home — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when getting up to three points as an underdog. Running back Damien Harris is expected to play this afternoon with his improving hamstring. New England did give up 226 rushing yards last week to the Colts — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on Monday Night Football back on December 6th in the cold and heavy winds in Buffalo in a game the Patriots won by a 14-6 score. The temperatures in Foxboro today will be in the 40s with the winds in the low-teens — so the offenses should be able to function much better in this rematch. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-6) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 27-17 win against New England as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (10-4) has lost two straight games after their 30-12 upset loss in Detroit as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts only managed 275 yards in their victory against the Patriots last week. Carson Wentz only attempted 12 passes for a mere 57 yards in the win. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Colts did rush for 226 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. It will be difficult for Indy to replicate that performance on the ground tonight with them missing three starting offensive linemen. Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are on the COVID list while Ryan Kelly is taking personal time after the death of his child. The Indianapolis defense should keep them in this game — they have not allowed more than 17 points in four of their last five games. They did allow 284 passing yards to Mac Jones last week — but they have then played 5 straight Unders after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Colts go back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 303.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Arizona has suffered two straight upset losses after getting beat by the LA Rams by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite the previous week. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting upset in two straight games. Furthermore, Arizona has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cardinals are only allowing 20.3 PPG this season — but they are scoring just 22.7 PPG in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (26-5) has won five straight games after their 113-101 victory against Oklahoma City as a 15-point favorite on Thursday. Golden State (26-6) has won five of their last six games after their 113-104 victory against Memphis as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix won five of their seven games played without Devin Booker who was out with an injury. Booker returned to the court three games ago in a 137-106 victory against Charlotte on Sunday before the Suns beat the Lakers in Los Angeles by a 108-90 score on Tuesday. Booker scored 30 points on Thursday against the Thunder. Phoenix is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least two games in a row by 10 or more points. The Suns stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix has built off their NBA Finals run by consistently playing tough on the defensive end of the court. They are second in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 100.4 Points-Per-Game on 40.6% shooting from the field. The Suns will be without Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader to injury — but it is the Warriors who are more depleted by positive COVID tests right now. Golden State will be without Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, and Damion Lee who are all in quarantine. Poole and Wiggins are playing important supporting roles for this team. Andre Iguodala is questionable as well with a knee injury — and if he does not play, they are missing players on the wing. The Warriors come off their best defensive effort in their last four games on Thursday after holding the Grizzlies to just 42.2% shooting. Golden State is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Warriors go back on the road where they have lost four of their six games. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix held Stephen Curry to just 4 of 21 shooting in the first meeting between these two teams that they won by a 104-96 score on November 30th. The Suns the rematch on December 3rd by a 118-96 score without Booker with his injury earlier this month. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games when avenging a loss by double-digits. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Television Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (590) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (589). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers gained 397 total yards last week in their victory against the Falcons. They have scored at least 30 points in four of their last six games and five of their last eight contests. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Niners have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Even without an injured Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco ran for 162 yards against Atlanta. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is using wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, out of the backfield to great success. In Samuel’s last five games — all victories for the 49ers where they have scored at least 26 points (he did not play in their loss to Seattle on December 5th) — he has run the ball 33 times for 247 yards with six touchdowns including a score in each of those five games. Running back Jeff Wilson ran the ball 21 times for 110 yards with a touchdown in his best game of the season after missing the first half of the year to an injury. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when favored. The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards. Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee returns home where the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. The Over is 19-7-1 in the Titans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games in December, Tennessee has played 9 of these games Over the Total. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-2) has won two in a row after their 96-52 victory against USC Upstate as a 35.5-point favorite on December 14th. Arizona (11-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 84-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 28-point favorite on December 18th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VOLUNTEERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on their home court — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by 20 or more points. This is an outstanding defensive team that ranks second in the nation at kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to 36.8% or lower shooting from the field. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after not allowing their two opponents to make no better than 37% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. They have generated 15 and 13 steals in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 home games after registering double-digit steals in two straight games. The Volunteers are 6-0 on their home court with an average winning margin of +32.8 net Points-Per-Game average margin of victory. The conventional wisdom regarding Tennessee is that they struggle against elite defenses. But their two losses this season to Villanova and Texas Tech in overtime were both on neutral courts. They have also beaten North Carolina on a neutral court and Colorado in Boulder. Back home in Knoxville, the Volunteers make 49.1% of their shots and score 87.0 PPG. They also make 41.7% of their shots from 3-point range at home as compared to their 23.2% shooting clip from behind the arc when on the road. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored overall. Arizona held Cal-Baptist to just 33.3% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game at home where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight games in their last ten contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning at least three straight games. The Wildcats have beaten Illinois on the road in Champagne and Michigan on a neutral court in Las Vegas — but they needed overtime to defeat Wichita State in that same tournament in Vegas the night before beating the Wolverines. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: It has been a surprising start for first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd — but this will be the biggest test for the former Gonzaga assistant who has brought in several transfer players to Tuscon to form an interesting squad. The Wildcats are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tennessee Volunteers (752) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Wildcats (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Jets to just 256 yards last week in a strong defensive effort. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Saints have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points, New Orleans has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they are allowing only 18.3 PPG and 300.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job devising schemes against Tom Brady — his zone defense limits the effectiveness of the crossing routes that the Buccaneers love and New Orleans has the players to generate an inside pass rush which gets Brady out of his rhythm. The Saints contained Brady to completing just 60.8% of his passes which averaged only 6.05 Yards-Per-Attempt in their two meetings last season. Brady put up better numbers in their first meeting this season on October 31st — but he did throw two interceptions in a 36-27 upset loss when the Bucs were laying 3.5 points. The bigger concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Hill is an effective runner — but he is limited in the passing game. New Orleans operates an offensive akin to the Cam Newton offenses with Carolina — and that does mean longer possessions of offense as they attempt to win the Time of Possession battle. The Saints were on offense for 38:52 minutes against the Jets after rushing for 202 yards — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay did allow 173 rushing yards last week to the Bills — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. Josh Allen led a Bills offense to average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play last week — but Tampa Bay has played 6 straight Unders after a game where they allowed at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against NFL opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. These teams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th. New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South Rival. The Colts generated 389 yards against Texas to outgain them by +248 net yards. Indy has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts' offense has started to crank with Carson Wentz more comfortable running head coach Frank Reich’s offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. Since Week Six, this team leads the NFL in points scored and touchdowns and they are second in rushing yards. They held Houston to just 141 total yards — and they are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts may only have two wins in their seven games against teams with a winning record — but they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. New England had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Some might be surprised that the red hot Patriots are the underdogs in this game — but it relates to rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ home/road splits this season. At home, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England ran their way to victory against the Bills in that game as they gained 222 yards on the ground. But the Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots will be without Damien Harris in this game as he is out with a hamstring injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Colts surge has been led by running back Jonathan Taylor — they are 7-0 straight-up when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Patriots have a great defense — but they are vulnerable against the run as they allow 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and rank 18th in the NFL by giving up 114 rushing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (6-6) became bowl eligible to conclude their regular season with a 27-17 win at FAU as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. Toledo (7-5) is on a three-game winning streak after a 49-14 win against Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee lost four of their first six games before salvaging their season by winning four of their last six games. Head coach Rick Stockstill hit the transfer portal in the offseason to inject more talent into what has been a sleepy program as of late. But his teams typically end strong — the Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. They outscored their last three opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game and they outgained these foes by +94.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Stabilizing play at quarterback has been a season-long journey. Former NC State QB Bailey Hockman left the team in September after having a baby. Redshirt junior QB Chase Cunningham suffered a season-ending leg injury in early November. Freshman QB Nicholas Vattiato started the final four games — and after a rough debut at Western Kentucky, he has since completed 63 of 89 passes for 553 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three games. He was benched for sophomore Mike Diliello in the game against the Owls — and it was Diliello who led the comeback win by completing 12 of 19 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown pass. Diliello adds mobility to the offense — he ran 12 times for 43 yards with a touchdown. Both QBs hold play this afternoon — and a quarterback competition in a bowl game building into the following season is not a bad thing in these situations. Middle Tennessee is a good defensive team — they rank 24th in the nation by allowing only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Blue Raiders also rank sixth in the nation by averaging +0.92 net turnovers per game. And while fumble luck played a role, the Middle Tennessee defense was fifth in the nation by picking off 16 passes. The Blue Raiders did not force a turnover in their win at FAU — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Toledo failed to meet their high expectations this season after returning 21 starters. They were 0-4 in one-possession games. So while this could have been a 10-win team, how motivated will this group be in Bahamas now? As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. And while the Rockets outgained the Zips by +217 net yards by generating 582 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards. Toledo has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning at least three games in a row. Toledo is a program that is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee is playing in their first bowl game since 2018 — and they have not won a bowl game since 2017. They are a team looking to build momentum into next season while this is a coda for many of these Rocket players. High winds up to 15 miles per hour will likely contribute to chaos — and chaos tends to help big underdogs. 10* CFB Toledo-Middle Tennessee ESPN Special with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-4) has won six straight games after their 48-9 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (8-5) won their third game in their last four with their 37-21 win against the New York Giants as a 9.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 7 straight Unders on the road after a double-digit victory. Kansas City has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Chiefs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City may not have pass rusher, Chris Jones, tonight after testing positive for COVID earlier this week. There is an outside chance that Jones can be cleared to play tonight if he is asymptomatic with two negative tests — if so, then the Under looks even better. But the Chiefs defense is playing better for reasons outside of Jones moving back to defensive tackle since the midseason acquisition of defensive end Melvin Ingram. Year after year, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo oversees the steady improvement of his unit as the season moves on. Kansas City has held their last three opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game and 323.0 total Yards-Per-Game. While they will miss Jones, the defense will not fall apart without him if he does not play. Spagnuolo’s group has held their divisional opponents to just 15.5 PPG and 336.3 total YPG  in their four games this season. They held the Raiders to just 44 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Justin Herbert completed 23 of 31 passes for 275 yards in the win against the Giants — but the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they have played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Under is also 14-6-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles’ defense has been playing better as of late after holding their last three opponents to 23.7 PPG and 324.7 total YPG — that is -2.1 PPG and -23.7 net YPG below their season averages. They have also held their three divisional games this season to 22.0 PPG and 327.3 YPG. The Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC West foes. The Under is also 20-9-1 in their last 30 games in December. Los Angeles’ offense is not at full strength with their star rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater out tonight and running back Austin Ekeler not at 100% with a high ankle sprain. Ekeler will play but not get a full workload.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-15) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 116-111 upset win at Portland as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (14-13) has won three of their last four games with their 113-107 win against Washington as a 4-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves have played 27 of their last 37 road games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The 111 points they allowed to the Trail Blazers was their lowest in their last four games. Minnesota has let their last five opponents make 49.6% of their shots which has translated into 120.2 PPG. Now the T-Wolves stay on the road where they are scoring 111.1 PPG while allowing 113.9 PPG. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. D’Angelo Russell is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Denver will be without JaMychal Green who is also dealing with an ankle — but Aaron Gordon and Will Barton have been upgraded to probable. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Denver has also played 11 straight Overs after allowing at least 100 points. They are scoring 113.6 PPG in their last five games — but they are surrendering 113.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting in those five games as well. The 45.6% shooting they held the Wizards to on Monday was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Nuggets are now playing their sixth game in the last ten days — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at least their sixth game in ten days. Denver has played four straight Unders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total in December going back to last season. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) and the Denver Nuggets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:38 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (40) versus the Seattle Kraken (39). THE SITUATION: San Jose (15-12-1) has won two of their last three games after their 2-1 win against Dallas on Saturday. Seattle (9-15-3) has lost three in a row after a 5-4 loss to Columbus on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SHARKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Jose should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by just one goal — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than one goal in their last contest. The Sharks have not scored more than two goals in each of their last two games — but they have won 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. James Reimer should be between the pipes tonight — he has a 1.98 Goals-Against-Average with a .931 save percentage in 15 games (14 starts). This is the first meeting between these two teams — and San Jose has won 5 of their last 6 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Seattle has lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least four goals in their last game. The Kraken has allowed at least three goals in six straight games. Seattle has lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least two goals in their last game — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least three goals in three straight games. Furthermore, the Kraken have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least three goals in at least four straight games. Chris Driedger is the confirmed goaltender for Seattle tonight. He has played in only five games this season with four starts while battling injuries — but he has struggled with a 3.60 GAA and an .876 save percentage. The Kraken has lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has lost 5 of their last 6 games against Pacific Division rivals — and San Jose has won 4 of their last 5 games against Pacific Division foes. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Jose Sharks (40) versus the Seattle Kraken (39). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Jaguars last week by outgaining them by +221 net yards. The Rams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. Los Angeles covered the point spread for the first time in their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. What was encouraging from the Jaguars game was that Los Angeles ran the ball 28 times for 128 yards. That was the most rushing attempts and yards for the Rams in four games. They will be without Darrell Henderson tonight with him being on the COVID list — but Sony Michel is capable in taking on the lead back role. Their 6.3 Yards-Per-Play average is the best in the NFL — and they average 6.3 YPP on the road with the offensive execution not dropping off. Los Angeles is 4-2 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Rams are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the NFC — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December. Arizona has won three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games after winning three of their last four games. The Cardinals host this game where they are just 3-2 this season with an average winning margin of +1.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are only scoring 22.6 PPG at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cardinals — and they have covered their last 6 games against them in Arizona. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-8) lost their sixth contest in their last seven games after their 33-22 loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-3) won their second game in their last three with a 36-287 upset win against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2-point underdog on November 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Bears' defense for the loss against the Cardinals — despite injuries, they only surrendered 14 first downs and 257 total yards to Arizona. Giving up 192 yards in returns yards on special teams played a big role. That is something that will be easier for Chicago to clean up this week. The Bears have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is holding their last three opponents to just 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game. But the Bears are scoring only 16.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 298.8 total YPG — and now they go back on the road where those numbers drop to 14.3 PPG and 287.3 total YPG. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Packers gained 399 yards against the Rams defense two weeks ago, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles gained 353 yards against them — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Packers stay at home at Lambeau Field where they are holding their opponents to just 14.4 PPG. And the dynamic offense led by Aaron Rodgers is only scoring 27.8 PPG at home while averaging just 23.6 PPG on the season. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised to see the Packers running the ball a ton tonight as they look to rev up their two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon for the playoffs — and that likely means fewer offensive possessions. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams won are winning 25-40% of their games — and Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 41-22 win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite their losing record, New York is playing much better on defense as of late. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Giants have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last eight games. Since Week Seven, New York is allowing just 16.0 Points-Per-Game and 4.8 Yards-Per-Play which both rank fourth-best in the NFL during that span. Opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 70.7 since Week Seven as well — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Giants should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. With quarterback Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, the Giants will have Mike Glennon under center once again this week. Glennon was just OK last week — he completed 23 of 44 passes for 187 yards with an interception. One of the problems for the Giants is that Jones is not putting up much better numbers at this point in his career. Glennon is a capable backup with a completion percentage of 60.8% in 1049 career passing attempts. He has 44 touchdown passes to just 28 interceptions. The Giants have been ravaged with injuries but they are getting healthier with Saquon Barkley getting 17 touches last week in his third week back since missing over a month. It was encouraging for New York to limit the Dolphins to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Los Angeles has been inconsistent this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are also only 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. After taking a 24-0 lead against the Bengals, Los Angeles let the Bengals back in the game with Cincinnati scoring a potential game-tying touchdown before they missed the two-point conversion. The Chargers then recovered a fumble on their 39-yard line which they returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a nine-point lead and re-take control of the game. That upset victory was Los Angeles’ first point spread cover in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Chargers return home where they are only 3-3 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home when favored. The Chargers’ challenge is complicated with a COVID outbreak in their locker room. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out and wide receiver Mike Williams is among a handful of players questionable as they look to clear quarantine protocols.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Giants’ defense should keep them in this game against a Chargers’ team that had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before the Bengals only scored 22 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (6-2) had their two-game winning streak end in an 81-76 upset loss to Minnesota as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado State (9-0) remained undefeated this season after their 74-58 win against Saint Mary’s as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Mississippi State probably played their worst game of the season against the Golden Gophers. Their 43.7% shooting percentage was the second-lowest of the year — and the 49.2% shooting mark by Minnesota was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage this season. Head coach Ben Howland should have his team prepared for this contest. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by six points or less. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. This team should play well on a neutral court — they pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, ranking 12th best in the nation. Colorado State comes off their biggest win of the season in what was their second straight victory by double-digits. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. And while Colorado State has covered the points spread in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Rams lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.3% fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their shots from behind the arc, the best 3-point shooting percentage in the country. But seven of Colorado State’s nine games have been at home. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Rams go back on the road for just the third time this season. Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their three previous games at home. The Rams have seen their 3-point shooting drop to 40.3% away from home — and now they face this Bulldogs team that holds their opponents to just 31.9% shooting from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is vulnerable on defense as they rank 104th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Colorado State is 2-5-1 ATS. 25* CBB ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (625) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado State Rams (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (61) and the Vancouver Canucks (62). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (13-9-4) has won three of their last four games after their 3-0 win at Seattle last night. Vancouver (10-15-2) has won two straight and four of their last five after their 2-1 win against Boston on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 6-2-2 in the Jets’ last 10 games after a win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals. Winnipeg has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Jets stay on the road where they are scoring only 2.3 Goals-Per-Game as opposed to their 3.0 Goals-Per-Game scoring average overall. Winnipeg has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They turn to Eric Comrie between the pipes who has been solid with a 2.49 Goals-Against-Average and a .912 save percentage in six games (five starts). The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Vancouver has seen the Under go 7-1-1 in their last 9 games after a win. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Canucks’ last 8 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Vancouver has only allowed one goal in their two games since manager Bruce Boudreau took over as their new head coach on December 5th. The Canucks stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They are scoring just 2.2 Goals-Per-Game on home ice. Additionally, the Under is 20-5-4 in their last 29 games at home — and the Under is 10-1-1 in their last 12 home games when favored. Thatcher Demko should be in goal tonight after stopping 35 of 36 shots against the Bruins on Wednesday. Demko sports a 2.21 GAA and a .931 save percentage in 11 starts at home this season. He has a 1.73 GAA and a .947 save percentage in four starts this month.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Canucks’ last 4 games against Western Conference opponents — and the Under is 7-3-1 in the Jets’ last 11 games against Western Conference opponents. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total as well. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (61) and the Vancouver Canucks (62). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has a losing record despite outscoring and out-gaining their opponents this season. All seven of their losses have been by one-scoring possession. They have scored at least 26 points in five straight games. This is as near a “gotta have it” game for the Vikings as there will be. They have typically played well under situations like this under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 61 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a division rival. And in their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less, the Vikings have covered the point spread 4 times. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will not have wide receiver Adam Thielen tonight with him being out with an ankle injury — but his productivity outside the Red Zone has declined this season. Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision to return to action earlier than expected from his shoulder injury — but Alexander Mattison is a very good running back if he does play. Cousins is enjoying a great season, albeit under the radar. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for over 3300 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He has not tossed an interception in 246 straight pass attempts. Pittsburgh may be due for an emotional letdown after grinding out a win against their arch-rivals in the Ravens. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Steelers go back on the road for the third time in their last four games — and doing so on a short week will be a challenge. Pittsburgh has surrendered 41 points in each of their last two games away from home — and they are giving up 27.0 PPG and 389.4 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Injuries have made things worse for the Steel Curtain — they are without cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Robert Spillane. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have been a disappointment in losing seven closes games this season — but they have finally completed a difficult stretch with four of their last five games being on the road. The last time they played at home, they upset Green Bay — and this will be an angry and embarrassed team after they shipped the Lions their first win of the year. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Marquette (7-2) looks to rebound from an 89-76 loss at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State (5-2) comes off a 65-59 upset win at Wichita State as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINT(S): Marquette allowed the Badgers to make 50.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst defensive performance of the season. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games after a double-digit loss on the road. Marquette has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Shaka Smart has this team playing like his “Havoc” teams at Virginia Commonwealth at a rapid pace and with a full-court 1-2-2 pressing zone. The Eagles lead the nation by averaging only 14.8 seconds per possession. Smart did not inherit a returning starter from last season — under 20% of the production from last year returned. But he did bring in Darryl Morsell from Maryland after he won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award last season. Smart’s Havoc tactics help to compensate for the lack of experience. Marquette has already pulled off upset victories against Illinois, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Smart’s teams are 41-23-1 ATS in his last 65 road games as an underdog — and his teams have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road as an underdog going back to last season with Texas. Kansas State appears to be without their leading scorer Nigel Pack who is in the concussion protocol. He is scoring 15.8 Points-Per-Game while nailing 49.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Pack did not play in their upset win against the Shockers - but they only made 33.9% of their shots in the win. The Wildcats hosts this game at Bramage Coliseum — but the home fans are not quite as rowdy in non-conference games in December as they will be once the Big 12 schedule begins. As it is, Kansas State is just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying up to six points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Marquette should have an edge at the charity stripe tonight. The Golden Eagles rank 15th in the nation in free throw rate — and Kansas State is 227th in defensive free throw rate in putting their opponent on the line. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marquette Golden Eagles (711) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas State (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:38 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (19) and the San Jose Sharks (20). THE SITUATION: Calgary (15-5-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 3-2 loss in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights on Sunday. San Jose (13-11-1) has lost two in a row with their 6-4 loss at Columbus on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Flames have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by one goal. Calgary has also played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Flames are playing fierce defense for head coach Daryl Sutter — they are allowing just 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they are allowing just 1.9 Goals-Per-Game. Calgary has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games with the Total set at 5.5. Backup goaltender Daniel Vladar gets the starting assignment tonight — but he has been spectacular this season. Vladar has a 1.78 Goals-Against-Average with a .939 save percentage in six starts all on the road. He also has two shutouts. The Flames have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Pacific Division rivals. San Jose has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals. Additionally, the Sharks have played 5 straight Unders after losing at least two in a row. San Jose has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games Under the Total after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. In their last five games, the Sharks are allowing just 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. Adin Hill likely will be between the pipes tonight. In three starts this month, Hill has a 2.35 GAA and a .914 save percentage. San Jose returns home for the first time since November 26th. The Sharks have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after being on the road for at least a week. San Jose has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Sharks have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: San Jose has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Calgary has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (19) and the San Jose Sharks (20). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week. New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thought for this situation was to prefer Buffalo but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. I think there is a significant edge at Quarterback tonight. Josh Allen played four years in the cold at Wyoming. His big arm can cut through the wind a bit more -- and he has a few more years of big games under his belt. I like Mac Jones but his arm strength is not one of his best qualities (accuracy, decision-making, intellect) -- and his background is Florida then Alabama. Will these be the coldest temperatures he has ever played in? As it is, the New England offense only averages 309.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road — a drop-off of -46.3 net YPG from their season average. Jones averages only 178 passing YPG in his five starts on the road with his 231 passing yards at Houston being his season-high away from home. The Patriots' recent winning streak has been fueled by them winning the turnover battle in each of those six games. They have forced four turnovers in two straight games while committing just one turnover themselves in those two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in each of their last two games. New England surrendered 270 rushing yards to a Titans team without Derrick Henry last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory by 14 or more points. The Bills are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Buffalo gained 361 yards against the Saints last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Bills held New Orleans to just 190 total yards — and they are 9-1-2 ATS after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo held the Saints to just 44 rushing yards as well — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots will lean heavily on running the football on the road and in these weather conditions — but the Bills are fourth in the NFL by allowing just 3.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Buffalo returns home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 Points-Per-Game and outgains them by +135.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-5) has won three of their last four games after their 28-13 upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (7-4) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Under is also 15-5-1 in Denver’s last 21 games after not allowing more than 14  points in their last game. The Broncos have held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. They are third in the league by allowing just 17.8 Points-Per-Game. They also have the third-best opposing quarterback Passer Rating of 82.7 in the NFL. They go on the road tonight where they are holding their home hosts to just 17.2 PPG and 312.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. But the Broncos' offense is limited with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They are scoring just 20.7 PPG — and they have scored under 20 points in five of their last eight games. Bridgewater completed 11 of 18 passes for 129 yards last week. While a quarterback that is allergic to taking chances is a good fit with a defense-first team, his unwillingness to throw the ball down the field makes it difficult to stay competitive with a team that averages 25.5 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after a bye week. The Chiefs host this game where they are only scoring a surprising 21.5 PPG this season. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Mahomes has been in a mini-slump this season after being frustrated with the two-high safety cover-2 looks he is facing. But it is not just that — defenses have finally realized that blitzing Mahomes is too dangerous a proposition since he can evade the rush and torch the defense with Travis Kelce or Tyreeke Hill getting a few more seconds to evade fewer defenders. It is the cover-2 combined with the standard pass rush which is frustrating Mahomes. The Chiefs have not scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games and five of their last seven. But Kansas City is on a winning streak due to the improved play of their defense. Acquiring linebacker defensive end Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to defensive tackle where he prefers — and he has thrived. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 10.0 PPG and just 292.0 total YPG. Don’t count out a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo to improve as the season moves on. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 14-5-1 in Denver’s last 20 games against AFC West foes — and the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 28-13 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Cincinnati (7-4) has won two in a row after their 41-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles outgained the Broncos last week by +55 net yards after holding Denver to just 302 yards. Denver benefited from a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown to flip the score. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles is playing close games — two of their losses were by just three points apiece. They are outgaining their opponents by +33.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Cincinnati dominated their arch-rivals in the Steelers last week which may set them up for an emotional letdown. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 73 combined points in their last two weeks, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. Led by Joe Mixon, the Bengals rushed for 198 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chargers give up a lot of rushing yards — but that is because they are focusing on defending the pass. Los Angeles only allows 331.2 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Cincinnati is only outgaining their opponents by +7.3 net YPG despite their 7-4 record — and they are getting outgained when playing at home. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Chargers: 3-2 on the road). Four of Cincinnati’s wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh twice. They are just 3-4 against the rest of their competition. And Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last four weeks — the second-most of all quarterbacks during that span. Now here comes the Chargers’ Joey Bosa.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 35-16-4 ATS in their last 55 road games as an underdog. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday. Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This will be head coach Billy Napier’s last game with Louisiana before he takes on his new job as head coach of the Florida Gators. Napier has been pulling double-duty this week getting his new staff together in Gainesville while beginning his recruiting for Florida — and that may scare off some bettors. His coordinators are still on the case for this game — and Napier is quite familiar with Appalachian State. I see things in the opposite way — this contest offers Napier and his players the culmination of a long journey where beating the Mountaineers in the championship game and winning a Sun Belt championship is the final goal for this program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game under Napier before not getting the chance to play for the title last season against Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak canceling the game. UL-Louisiana has appeared to lack motivation at times this season. They have five wins against inferior opponents by just one scoring possession — however, they also crushed Appalachian State and Liberty in statement victories by 28 points apiece. Being listed as the underdog should stick anger them — and they have pulled the upset in five of their last seven games in the role of the underdog under Napier. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They get to host this game where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game and a ++143.8 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns hold their guest to just 14.0 PPG and 301.5 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 10 points in their last game against a conference opponent. They held the Eagles to just 194 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. And in their last 12 games after winning at least five straight games, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. The Mountaineers play on the road for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette finally defeated Appalachian State last December in a regular-season game to avenge those two previous losses in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in 2018 and 2019. The Ragin’ Cajuns followed that up with a 41-13 throttling of the Mountaineers at home on October 12th this season in a game where they outgained them by +244 yards despite being a +4.5-point underdog. Appalachian State has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss. The dog has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. The Louisiana players love Napier — I think they play hard for him today in a program-defining moment. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). THE SITUATION: New York (11-9) has won two of their last three games after their 99-90 victory at Atlanta on Saturday. Brooklyn (14-6) had their four-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 113-107 upset loss to Phoenix as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks probably played their best defensive game of the season against the Hawks. New York held Atlanta to just 35.5% shooting — the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season — and the 90 points they gave up was the second-lowest mark of the year. Not coincidentally, head coach Tom Thibodeau did not play Kemba Walker in the game — and he announced yesterday that he was removing Walker from the rotation completely. Walker was a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason from Boston to provide an offensive spark. He has scored 11.7 Points-Per-Game in the 24.5 minutes per game he has played this season. His removal from the rotation will lead to lower scoring games for the Knicks since the team will lose his outside shooting but benefit from getting closer to Thibodeau’s expectations of the play of their defense. New York has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. In their last five games, they are scoring 102.2 PPG on 41.9% shooting — a drop of -4.1 PPG from their season average. The Knicks stay on the road where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total with the Total in the 210-219.5 point range. Additionally, the Knicks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Nets stay at home where the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total when favored. Brooklyn has won seven of their last nine games in a stretch fueled by the play of their defense. In those nine games, the Nets rank sixth in the league in Defensive Efficiency. They will be without sharpshooter Joe Harris indefinitely with his shoulder injury.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (531) and the Brooklyn Nets (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC —  but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884) in the Finals of the Las Vegas Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-0) won their opening round game in this holiday tournament with a 71-61 victory as a 13-point favorite last night. UAB (5-1) comes off an 86-73 victory against New Mexico as an 11-point favorite last night in this event. This tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row. San Francisco is tough on the defensive glass — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 20% of their missed shots. Head coach Bob McKillop has his team play tough defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in only 62.6 Points-Per-Game. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UAB has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. After losing at South Carolina, the Blazers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games. UAB has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 10 straight Unders after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while the Blazers have scored 86 points in each of their last two games after being held to 63 points in their loss to the Gamecocks, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. They are averaging 86.7 PPG on 48.7% shooting this season — but in their two games away from home, that productivity drops to 74.5 PPG on 42.1% shooting. UAB has held their last five opponents to 62.4 PPG on 41.1% shooting. They are 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc — and the Dons have been living inside with a 61.8% shooting mark for their 2-point shots which is fourth-best in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-1-1 in the Blazers’ last 8 games as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a dog getting up to three points. San Francisco is scoring 79.9 PPG — but this is just their second game away from home after scoring 71 points last night in Vegas. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Las Vegas Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-5) has won two of their last three games with their 44-19 win against Arizona as a 15-point favorite last Friday. Washington (4-7) has lost three in a row after a 20-17 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This year’s version of the Apple Cup will feature two defensive coordinators serving as interim head coaches for programs working through a tumultuous season. Given some weather conditions that I will detail in the Final Take, I expect both teams to embrace a conservative defensive mentality in this rivalry game. Washington State has run the ball more since Jake Dickert was given the head coaching duties. In his four games, the Cougars had their first and third-highest rushing games in terms of attempts with 42 carries against Arizona State and 36 carries last week against the Wildcats — and this is despite them ranking 71st in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. As a defensive coach, Dickert appreciates the benefits running the ball does for his defense. They have held three of these four opponents to no more than 21 points after allowing 24 or more points in six of their first seven games. When now facing an outstanding Huskies secondary filled with future NFL players who rank fifth in the nation in Opposing Pass Success Rate and third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading, Washington State will likely run the ball plenty tonight — and burn time off the clock limited offensive possessions along the way. The Cougars did gain 482 yards last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cougars score only 23.0 PPG and average 355.3 total YPG on the road. Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by a touchdown or less against Pac-12 rivals. The Huskies held the Buffaloes to 183 yards in the loss last week. The Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Washington allows only 21.1 PPG and 325.9 total YPG on the season. But despite quarterback Dylan Morris passing for 387 yards, his two interceptions played a large role in their scoring just 17 points. The Huskies average just 1.4 Yards-Per-Carry. With this being the team’s final game, interim head coach Bob Gregory may give playing time to freshman QB Sam Huard. Either way, expect more long drives from an offense that ranks outside the top-115 in Standard Down Explosiveness, Rushing Explosiveness, and Passing Explosiveness. Washington is scoring only 21.0 PPG and averaging 286.0 total YPG in their last three games. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: There is a 50% chance for rain in Seattle for this game which will likely hurt the passing game for both teams. I suspect both defensive coaches will not take as many chances throwing the ball in the rain. And if you watched Washington play in Ann Arbor in the rain against Michigan earlier this year, you witnessed how ineffective Morris and their receivers were dealing with a wet football. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings at Washington Under the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Unders after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints’ defense is allowing only 21.8 PPG — but they need to bounce-back after getting embarrassed by Philadelphia. They allowed 383 total yards to the Eagles with 242 of them coming on the ground last week. New Orleans has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards. Turnovers are hurting this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. That explains why the Saints have allowed 30.0 PPG in those three games despite only giving up 336.7 total YPG during that span. New Orleans has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing the turnover battle in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total played on a Thursday. Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5. to 49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-7) lost their fifth straight game with a 16-13 loss to Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (0-9-1) comes off a 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. And in their last 24 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Justin Fields was knocked out of the Ravens game with a rib injury that will keep him out this afternoon. Andy Dalton will be under center for this game after completing less than 50% of his passes (11 of 23) against Baltimore. Chicago is scoring only 16.3 PPG and averaging 287.9 total Yards-Per-Game under offensive “guru” May Nagy — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG and 269.2 total YPG in their five games on the road. They have not scored more than 27 points all season while scoring 22 or fewer points in eight of their ten games and 20 points or less in seven of their games. The Bears did gain 353 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Chicago is they did hold Baltimore to only 299 total yards. They did not allow more than 17 points for the fourth time this season. Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. It looks like it will be Jared Goff under center for this one with him being listed as questionable with the oblique injury that kept him out against the Browns. Backup quarterback Tim Boyle completed 15 of 23 passes but for only 77 yards with two interceptions against Cleveland in demonstrating that he is not as effective as even a limited Goff. Detroit is scoring only 16.0 PPG — and they score just 16.8 PPG at home while averaging 292.8 total YPG. The Lions have not topped 19 points in nine straight games — and they are averaging a mere 10.7 PPG and 259.7 total YPG in their last three contests. Detroit has scored 26 points in their last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Lions’ defense has played better lately by only allowing 29 combined points in their last two contests. They did allow 184 rushing yards to the Browns last week but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Total is low for this one — but it simply would not be a shock if one (or both) of these teams failed to score double-digits especially after Nagy canceled team meetings on Tuesday amidst the rumors he was going to be fired after this game (although the Lions offense is not in better shape even with full meetings on Tuesday). 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (29) versus the New Jersey Devils (39). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (11-6-1) have lost two straight and three of their last four after their 5-4 loss in a shootout at Tampa Bay on Sunday. New Jersey (8-5-3) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 5-3 win at Tampa Bay on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have won 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Wild have also won 10 of their last 11 games after losing two in a row. Additionally, Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have won 15 of their last 21 games when playing their third game on the road in a five-day stretch. Goalie Cam Talbot got the day off in the loss to the Lightning so he should be between the pipes again tonight. While he has a 3.55 Goals-Against-Average with an .872 save percentage in five home starts, he sports a 2.60 GAA with a .921 save percentage in nine starts on the road. The Wild have allowed at least four goals in two straight games — but they have then won 9 straight games after allowing at least four goals in two straight games. Minnesota has also won 9 of their last 12 road games when favored. New Jersey has lost 23 of their last 32 games at home after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Devils have allowed at least three goals in four straight games — and they have lost 19 of their last 27 games after allowing at least three goals in four straight games. MacKenzie Blackwood should be in goal tonight with six starts under his belt since returning from an early-season injury. He has an unappealing 3.03 Goals-Against-Average so far this year. New Jersey returns home where they have lost 24 of their last 34 games — and they have lost 28 of their last 41 home games with the Total set at 6. The Devils have also lost 28 of their last 41 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 37 of their last 53 games when favored. Look for them to end their losing streak tonight against a young Devils team still playing without an injured Jack Hughes. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (29) versus the New Jersey Devils (39). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617) in the Finals of the Empire Classic tournament. THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-0) has opened the season with five straight victories after their 75-62 victory against Bellarmine last night in their opening game in this two-day tournament. Gonzaga (5-0) has won five games in a row to open the season with their 107-54 win against Central Michigan as a 34-point favorite last night in their first game in this event. The Empire Classic takes place on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA continues to be undervalued by the market after their improbable run to the Final Four last season. The Bruins were the beneficiaries of some shooting luck in the NCAA Tournament — but shooting luck did not account for them going blow-for-blow with that loaded Gonzaga team in the National Semifinals. UCLA improved as the season went on under second-year head coach Mick Cronin teaching his defensive principles in a season marred by COVID. The Bruins return three players that are on the preseason Wooden Award watch list in Johnny Juzang (who single-handedly beat Michigan in the Elite Eight), Tyger Campbell (started every game at point guard for Cronin at UCLA), and Jamie Jaquez, Jr. (last year’s second-leading scorer). Cronin won’t have big man Cody Riley tonight as he recovers from an MCL injury — but he brought in Myles Johnson as a transfer from Rutgers with his seven-foot-seven wingspan. He was 19th in the nation last year in block rate. Peyton Watson is a top-ten recruit who also gets added into the mix of a group that has 91% of the returning minutes back from the Final Four team. This is a loaded group that continues to improve under Cronin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. UCLA only made 45.2% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort for them so far this season — and the 45.1% shooting they allowed last night was the second-highest of the year. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss after failing to cover the 22.5-point spread last night. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Gonzaga held the Chippewas to just 30.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort of the season. After a 12-point win against Texas in their second game of the year, the Bulldogs have won their next three games by at least 27 points — but that was against a Bellarmine team ranked 188th in the nation in KenPom’s rankings. Gonzaga has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. They have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after only failing to cover the point spread once in their last four games. And while they have scored at least 84 points in each of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in five straight games. Gonzaga’s stiffest competition was against a Texas team under new coach Chris Beard coaching a group of high-profile transfers. That Longhorns team is a few months away from successfully executing Beard’s no-middle defense that attempts to trap the ball to one side of the court. Gambling on that guess was pure guesswork early in the season (which is why I tend to embrace caution in the November CBB games — especially with the transfer market now even busier in the offseason). What was telling in that game, for me, was that the Zag’s 7’0 freshman phenom Chet Holmgren made just one of three shots for 2 points. I think it remains to be seen if he is a good fit when playing on the floor with the 6’10 Drew Timme. The twin towers look is not as successful for modern basketball — and Holmgren’s ability to defend the perimeter is an issue (and it is not a strength for Timme).  Gonzaga should be great once again this year — but this group is a work in progress for head coach Mark Few after losing a top-five pick in Jalen Suggs along with two other starters in outside shooter Corey Krispert and a glue guy in Joel Ayayi.

FINAL TAKE: UCLA’s victory over Villanova this season is more impressive than Gonzaga’s win over the Longhorns. Cronin will have his team very motivated to avenge their 93-90 loss to the Bulldogs in the Final Four last year — and he has had all the off-season to scheme a defensive play against Timme. The Bruins are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (618) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281) in Group H play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W3-D0-L1) has won eight of their last nine matches across all competitions with their 3-0 win at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. Juventus (W4-D0-L0) has won three matches in a row across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Lazio in Serie A play on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues hot streak started after losing to Juventus in the reverse fixture in the Champions League on September 29th — more on that match in the Final Take. The reigning European Champions have since found the defensive core that helped them claim the Champions League title. And despite injuries at forward to Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner, manager Thomas Tuchel has his XI generating offense from their wings. Chelsea has produced a clean sheet in six of their last seven matches in the EPL and UCL. They have outscored their last seven opponents in the EPL and UCL by a whopping 19 to 1 margin — and they have scored multiple goals in four of their last six matches in the EPL and UCL. The Blues are dominating the EPL competition in first place with 30 goals and just four goals conceded. They have a +12.94 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the EPL that is the top professional league in Europe. Serie A is a top-five European professional league — but they are not as strong as the EPL. Juventus only has a +6.59 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the Italian top-flight where they are in sixth place. The team misses Cristiano Ronaldo who led their offensive attack last season before being signed by Manchester United this year. But the identity of Juventus is usually their defensive play — and after leading Serie in expected goals allowed (xGA) last season, they have dropped to third in that metric this year. Furthermore, three starters — Paulo Dybala, Giorgio Chiellini, and Federico Bernardeschi — are questionable to play in this match.

FINAL TAKE: Juventus has won all four of their UCL matches and just needs a draw to clinch their advancement to the Knockout Stage. Chelsea will want the victory to draw even with the Old Lady in Group H — and taking first place gives them a better draw in the Round of 16 so this is an important match. Despite losing 1-0 to Juventus in September, the Blues dominated the match. They controlled possession for 72% of the match; they out-touched them by a 422 to 77 margin in the final third of the pitch; they completed 723 passes to just 236 passes; they had 17 entries into the box to just 5 conceded. Look for Chelsea to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* UEFA Champions League Group H Match of the Month with Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. They were only on offense for 20:52 minutes. The Buccaneers only ran the ball 13 times for 53 yards — and they only had 14 rushes for 71 yards in their loss to the Saints. Look for Tampa Bay to get back to running the football. They had averaged 29.3 rushing attempts in their four games which were all victories. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Running the ball will also help the Buccaneers defense that has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight — but asking the defense to be on the field five to ten minutes less than they were last week will help. So will returning home help where the Buccaneers hold their guests to just 18.5 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Giants managed only 247 total yards in the win last week with Daniel Jones completing 15 of 20 passes but for only 110 yards. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. And while the Giants surrendered 403 yards to the Raiders, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 straight games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against NFC foes. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.