At 7:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (56) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (55) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Series. THE SITUATION: Boston (52-30) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-1 loss on the road to the Hurricanes on Tuesday. Carolina (57-22-8) took a 3-2 series lead with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston looks to stave off elimination and force a decisive seventh game in this series. Attrition on their blue line has not helped their cause. They got back Charlie McAvoy on Tuesday who was out due to a positive COVID test — and now they expect to see his partner of their top defensive pair return with Hampus Lindolm probable after missing the last three games after taking a big hit in Game Two. Getting their top two defenders back and playing together is huge. And getting back home to TD Garden where head coach Bruce Cassidy gets to make the final line change also helps enormously. The fans won’t hurt either. Boston has won 36 of their last 51 home games when favored. Cassidy will put David Pastrnak back on the second line with Taylor Hall -- but he may still give extra shifts to him re-pairing with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand for the “perfection” line. The Bruins have won 23 of their last 33 games after a loss — and they have won 13 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Boston has also won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by four or more goals. Furthermore, the Bruins have won 8 of their last 10 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least five goals. Rookie Jeremy Swayman is between the pipes tonight after taking over after Game Two. While he struggled on Tuesday, he posted a solid .925 save percentage in Games Three and Four at home which Boston won both. Carolina has outscored the Bruins by a 19-13 margin — but the Hurricanes are overachieving their expected goals numbers and actually have a negative 46.78% expected goals-for mark in this series when playing at five-on-five. Carolina had the number one Power Play Kill Unit in the regular season but surrendered four Power Play goals in the two previous games in Boston in this series. Antti Raanta has been playing over his head in this series with a .942 save percentage. In 15 games (13 starts) on the road this year, he has a mediocre 2.87 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage. The Hurricanes have lost 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 16 of their last 21 playoff games as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has lost 11 of their last 14 games played in Boston against the Bruins. Expect this to be a seven-game series. 25* NHL Thursday Night Special Feature with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (56) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (55). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (48) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (47) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-26-7) returns home after losing both games on the road to the Penguins after a 7-2 loss on Monday. Pittsburgh (49-27-10) has taken a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York lost Game Three of this series by a 7-4 score. Goalie Igor Shesterkin was pilled after the first period in Game Three after giving up four goals on 15 shots — and he only survived two periods on Monday after giving up six goals on 24 shots. But it has been the Rangers’ defense in front of him that has been the bigger problem. Shesterkin has +1.2 saves above expectation in this series. In the first two games of this series, he stopped 118 of the 124 shots he faced for a .952 save percentage. During the regular season, the likely Vezina Trophy winner posted a 1.85 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage in 30 games (29 starts at home). New York is a well-coached team under Gerard Gallant that should play better tonight back in from of their home crowd when facing elimination. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Furthermore, New York has won 15 of their last 22 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Rangers have won 24 of their last 35 games after playing their last game Over the Total — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after playing two straight Overs. Back at home, New York has won 28 of their last 41 games on home ice — and they have won 21 of their last 30 home games when favored. And in the last 12 games coached by Gerard after his team allowed at least five goals in two straight games, his teams have then won the game 9 times. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 10 games after a victory — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a win by five or more goals. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Additionally, the Penguins have lost 20 of their last 29 road games after a win by four or more goals against a Metropolitan Division rival — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road after playing a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. The Pens have lost 12 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. On the road, Pittsburgh has lost 6 of their last 8 games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Penguins are dealing with injuries on their blue line with both Brian Dumoulin and Richard Rakell out tonight. And Pittsburgh remains reliant on third-string goaltender Louis Domingue with both Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith out with injuries. Dominque has just a .906 save percentage in this series — and he has a -2.3 saves below expectation rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss by two or more goals on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 7 games at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. 25* NHL 1st Round Metropolitan Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (48) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (47). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series with their 116-108 upset loss at home against the Celtics as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Boston (57-33) has won seven of their last nine games while evening this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Milwaukee went into the fourth quarter in Game Four with a seven-point lead — but they surrendered a whopping 43 points in the final 12 minutes to get outscored by 15 points in the loss. That was the worst defensive effort for the Bucks in their last nine games. Milwaukee still leads all teams in the playoffs in Defensive Efficiency. The first item on head coach Mike Budenholzer’s agenda is to tighten things up on defense again. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Unders — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Milwaukee misses Khris Middleton who remains out with a knee injury. Not only did he score 20.1 Points-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game in the regular season, but he is the team’s primary ball-handler which is critical for this team because he allows Giannis Antetokounmpo to exert less energy. Given the injury to Middleton, more is being asked of Jrue Holiday -- but he is more effective as a third scoring option rather than the primary complement to Antetokounmpo. Holiday is averaging 23 shot attempts per game in this series — but he is making only 33.6% of his shots and 30.9% of his shots from behind the arc. Brook Lopez becomes the de-facto third scoring option with Middleton out — but while he has scored 17 PPG in the playoffs when playing at home, he is only scoring 4.8 PPG on the road in the playoffs. Moving forward, Milwaukee has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last five games with their 50% shooting clip on Monday. They got a huge effort from Al Horford who nailed 11 of his 14 shots from the field including 5 of 7 from behind the arc for 30 points. The Celtics’ 116 points was tied for the highest-scoring game in their last eight contests. But Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. After leading the NBA in Defensive Efficiency in the regular season, they are third in the playoffs in defense while giving up the second-fewest points in the paint. The Celtics have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. And in their last 13 games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Boston has played 11 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Boston. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (39) and the Edmonton Oilers (40) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (46-29-11) comes off a 4-0 victory at home against the Oilers on Sunday. Edmonton (51-30-5) returns home with this series tied at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kings head coach Todd McClellan found success playing the Phillip Danault forward line against the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl line on Sunday. Danault is one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Los Angeles also got a vintage performance from goaltender Jonathan Quick who stopped all 31 of the shots he faced. The veteran was the team’s starting goaltender for their Stanley Cup championships in 2012 and 2014. After the Oilers scored six and eight goals in Games Two and Three, I think the tenor of this series has changed to be more defensive — and I suspect this may be the last game in this series where the Total is set at 6.5. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games after a win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after shutting out their last opponent. Los Angeles has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Pacific Division opponent — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after a win by more four or more goals. The Kings were a good defensive team in the regular season where they ranked 11th in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes. But scoring will be a problem for this team as they have only scored one power-play goal in their 15 chances in this series. Moving forward, the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games in the playoffs as an underdog — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against Pacific Division foes. Edmonton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by three or more goals — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home after a loss by four or more goals. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games at home after not scoring more than one goal in their last contest. They are getting great play from goaltender Mike Smith who has a 2.27 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage in this series. Smith was red-hot last month with a .951 save percentage in April.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 18-8-4 in the last 30 games between these teams when playing in Edmonton. The Oilers have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when avenging a shutout loss to their opponent. 25* NHL 1st Round Pacific Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (39) and the Edmonton Oilers (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-32) lost both games on the road against the 76ers after a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (57-35) has evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Sixers to make 54.4% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst defensive effort in their last 30 games. To compound matters, the Heat continue to struggle with their 3-point shooting. After making only 7 of 30 shots from behind the arc in Game Three, Miami converted on just 7 of their 35 shots from downtown. It’s tough to give too much credit to the Philly defense for this ineffectiveness either — the Heat missed 19 of their 24 shots from 3-point range that were uncontested or lightly contested shots. I do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance for Miami tonight after making only 21.5% of their shots from behind the arc in the two games in Philadelphia. Back at home, the Heat convert 37.6% of their shots from 3-point range. Granted, Duncan Robinson is not playing significant minutes in this series since he will be a defensive liability against James Harden -- and that removes one of the best 3-point shooters in the Miami rotation. But the other Heat players should see more of their 3-pointers drop moving forward and back at home. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games on the road. Back at home, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 62 playoff games when favored. Philadelphia’s 54.4% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort in this series. They nailed 16 of their 33 (48%) of their shots from behind the arc. Joel Embiid made one of those 3-pointers — it was a bank shot from the top of the arc. Pretty fortunate after not even attempting a 3-pointer in Game Three. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He had missed nine straight 3-pointers going into Sunday with his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. With Embiid not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable to play off him when he drifts to the perimeter. Harden played his best game in the postseason with 31 points on 8 of 18 shooting while nailing 6 of his 10 shots from downtown. I am not a believer — heck, I have never been a big believer in Harden in the playoffs when the refs call fewer fouls and the pressure is higher — he looks like he is moving in slow motion. His good game on Sunday might have enabled some bad habits tonight. As it is, the Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. Now they go back on the road where they made just 14 of their 64 (21.9%) of their 3-pointers. Having a healthy Embiid back helps Philly’s balance on offense — but they are still facing a Heat team that holds their guests to just 33.7% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Miami to play the Heat. The Heat have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. Miami has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Year is on the Miami Heat (502) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (37) and the Dallas Stars (38) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (51-24-10) has lost four of their last five games after their 4-2 loss on the road against the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (48-31-6) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We have seen Johnny Gaudreau’s offensive productivity dip in the postseason before. Despite prolific regular-season performances in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, Calgary flamed out in the first (full) round of the playoffs in both campaigns. The Flames have scored only three times in the first three games of this series. Part of the problem for Calgary is the lack of scoring depth after their top line of Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm. When playing at home in Dallas with the right to make the final line change, head coach Rick Bowness can make sure that his top defensive pair of Miro Heiskanen and Ryan Suter take the ice when the Gaudreau line is playing. Heiskanen has not seen a goal scored against the Stars in his 78 minutes of ice time so far in this series. And while the Gaudreau has scored twice, the other forward lines have scored just once in the first three games of this series. The Flames have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Jacob Markstrom who has kept them competitive in all three games in this series despite their lack of scoring. Markstrom has stopped 65 of the 69 shots he has faced in this series for a 1.36 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage. In his 25 starts on the road this season, Markstrom has a 2.31 GAA and a .929 save percentage. The Under is 6-2-1 in the Flames’ last 9 games on the road — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Dallas preceded their victory on Saturday with a 2-0 shutout win in Game Two in Calgary. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after going unbeaten in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by more than one goal. The Stars have not allowed more than two goals in four straight games and six of their last seven. Rookie goaltender Jake Oettinger loves playing against Pacific Division teams against which he has a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage in 16 games (15 starts). So far in this series, Oettinger has a 1.01 GAA and a .969 save percentage — and he has +3.7 saves above expectation. The Stars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-3-1 in Calgary’s last 13 games in the playoffs when favored — and they have played 11 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the series. 25* NHL 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (37) and the Dallas Stars (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Miami (59-31) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 99-79 upset loss on the road against Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-35) made this a 2-1 series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: Miami only made 35.1% of their shots in Game Three which was the worst shooting effort in their last 72 games. The Heat appeared out-of-synch with the surprise decision by the Sixers that Joel Embiid was ready to take the court again after passing the concussion protocol (and despite his orbital injury that had him wearing a protective mask). But it was more than just the return of Embiid — Miami could not hit the side of a barn on Friday. They missed 8 of their 10 uncontested shots. They only converted on 29.8% of their jump shots despite the deeper metrics indicating their expected field goal percentage was 48%. The Heat simply need to execute better tonight — better passing and better shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits despite being a road favorite. They stay on the road where they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Heat have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games as a dog. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia plays their best defensive game of the season by holding the Heat to just 35.1% shooting. The Sixers nailed 16 of their 33 shots from behind the arc for a 48.5% shooting clip. But the troubling aspect for Philadelphia is that they only scored 99 points despite enjoying so much success from distance. The 76ers’ posted only a 111 Offensive Rating in Game Three — and their efficiency actually dropped to scoring 107 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the court. Embiid scored a respectable 18 points but he did not attempt a 3-point attempt. He is still dealing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand that has altered his 3-point shot. He has missed nine straight 3-pointers — and his last made 3-pointer was back on April 20th. If Embiid is not a threat from behind the arc, the Sixers' offense becomes limited since defenders are comfortable playing off him when he drifts to the perimeter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after losing two of their last three games. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 200 to 209.5.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points on the road. 25* NBA Sunday Night Special Feature with the Miami Heat (579) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (580). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (25) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (52-25-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Friday. Toronto (57-27-7) took a 2-1 lead in this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay may not pull off the three-peat this season — but the defending champions remain very talented and will be a very tough out. They have been very reliable when bouncing back from a loss in the playoffs. Since 2020, they have won all 15 of their games after a loss in the postseason. Goaltender Andre Vasilevskiy has started in all 15 of those victories — and he has posted a 1.31 Goals-Against-Average with a .948 save percentage and five shutouts in those contests. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 52 games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. Furthermore, the Lightning have won 29 of their last 43 games when trailing in a playoff series. Toronto has lost 21 of their last 30 games when leading in a playoff series. While the Leafs are scoring 4.33 Goals-Per-Game in this series, they are not finding success on the Power Play. After leading the NHL with a Power Play that enjoyed a 27.3% success rate in the regular season, they are only converting on 13.3% of their Power Plays against the Lightning, ranking 11th in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 28 of their last 36 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least four goals — and they have won 10 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NHL 1st Round Atlantic Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Toronto Maple Leafs (25). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (58-31) looks to rebound from their 106-101 upset loss on the road against the Grizzlies as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (61-29) evened the series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Golden State was flat after seizing home-court advantage in the opening game of this series despite not playing with the suspended Draymond Green in the second half in Game One. The Warriors made only 42.1% of their shots from the field which was the lowest shooting mark in their last eight games. They missed 31 of their 38 shots from behind the arc for a low 18% field goal percentage from 3-point range. Back at home, Golden State should play much better. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games after a straight-up loss. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Warriors have a 34-10 record on their home court — and their numbers probably betray how good they will perform at home moving forward since the team was rarely at full strength with the Big Three of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson playing together again. And then there is the new emerging “Death Lineup” (PTSD?) which includes All-Star Andrew Wiggins and rising star Jordan Poole. That group overwhelmed Denver in the first two games of the Western Conference Quarterfinals when the Warriors outscored the Nuggets by an average of 18 PPG while scoring 124.5 Points-Per-Game on 53.6% shooting from the field in both games. Golden State was not as prolific on their home court in Game Five of that series in a 102-98 victory — but let’s give them a pass in that game since they were in control of the series (and did still win the game). The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Memphis risks being a bit rusty in this game after the mid-series hiatus since Tuesday to accommodate the television schedule moving forward. They are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games. And while this is just their fourth game in the last 11 days, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games when playing not more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis played their best game on defense by holding the Warriors to a 42.1% shooting percentage in their last five games. But they only made 39.6% of their own shots — and it could have been worse if it was not for Ja Morant who put his team on his back by scoring 47 points while adding 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Morant nailed 15 of his 31 shots from the field — but his teammates only made 21 of 60 shots for a troubling 35% shooting percentage. The Grizzlies will be without Dillon Brooks tonight after he got suspended for his hard foul on Gary Payton, Jr. and elbow injury that will keep him out indefinitely. Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 playoff games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Golden State against the Warriors.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 opportunities for revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (574) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-34) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 129-109 loss on the road to the Suns as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. Phoenix (70-20) has won four straight games and five of their last six.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS (OR AS A PICK ‘EM): Dallas looked outmatched in their two games in Phoenix — but Luka Doncic had his way in both games. Doncic has scored 80 points in this series after posting 45 points on Wednesday — and he added 12 rebounds and 8 assists in the losing effort. The Mavericks have made 41% of their shots from 3-point land in each of the first two games of this series — but head coach Jason Kidd’s team made 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc in their six-game series with Utah last round. Dallas should play their best game of the series tonight. They have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road. Furthermore, the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points on the road. Dallas allowed the Suns to nail 64.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort for them all season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Phoenix shot 50.5% from the field in Game One of this series as well — but the Mavericks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots in their last two games. Dallas returns home for the first time since April 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Mavs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix posted the seventh best field goal percentage in the history of the NBA playoffs with their 64.5% shooting clip on Wednesday — and it was their best shooting effort of the season. I do expect an appearance from the Regression Gods. The Suns made 37.3% of their shots from behind the arc when playing at home during the regular season —  but that mark drops to a 35.4% clip when playing on the road. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a double-digit win at home. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games and six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Suns have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (552) plus the point(s) (or minus) versus the Phoenix Suns (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Bruins (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (50-29-5) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series after losing by a 5-2 score on the road against the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Carolina (56-20-8) has won eight games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has outshot the Hurricanes in both games of this series while winning the five-on-five battle — but they have not been able to put enough shots into net. Head coach Bruce Cassidy has responded to this situation by deciding to reunite the “perfection” line by moving David Pastrnak back with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand after moving Pastrnak on the second line with Taylor Hall. The Bruins should play well tonight as they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after a loss by three or more goals. Boston has also won 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. Cassidy turns to rookie Jeremy Swayman after Linus Ullmark allowed eight goals on 57 shots in the first two games of this series. The rookie had a 23-14-3 record as a starter in the regular season with a 2.41 Goals-Against-Average and a .914 save percentage. He stopped 21 of the 23 shots he faced in his lone game against the Hurricanes this season. The Bruins have won 35 of their last 51 home games when favored. Carolina committed nine penalties on Wednesday in what was a wild game — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after taking at least eight penalties in their last game. The Hurricanes have lost 28 of their last 42 games after winning their two previous games at home by more than one goal. And while they the Hurricanes have scored at least four goals in five straight games, they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least four goals in five straight games. Goalie Antti Raanta left Game Two midway through the first period with an injury which means rookie Pyotr Kochetkov will make his fifth appearance of the season. While he stoped 30 of the 32 shots he faced on Wednesday, this is a difficult assignment in making his first career postseason start in hostile territory. As it is, Carolina has lost 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 8 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has won 9 of their last 12 opportunities to host the Hurricanes on home ice. 25* NHL 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Boston Bruins (2) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (1). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Nashville (45-31-7) looks to rebound from their 7-2 loss in the opening game of this series. Colorado (57-20-6) snapped a two-game losing streak while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Entering the postseason, I wanted to attack these 6.5 totals with Under plays ahead of the market before the reality of playoff hockey generates lower scoring games — but here I am endorsing a 25* play with an Over despite the number being at 6.5. Well, these are both high-scoring teams — and the Predators have a serious problem with their goaltending situation given the injury to Juuse Saros. David Rittich did not last the first period on Tuesday as he allowed in five goals on 13 shots. Rookie Connor Ingram played better by stopping 30 of the 32 shots he faced which were enough for head coach John Hynes to give him the nod as the starter tonight. It’s one thing to “only” give up two more goals entering a game where his team was already trailing by five goals — it is quite another to be facing the pressure of starting in a hostile environment tonight in a brand new game. In his three regular-season starts, Ingram had a 3.71 Goals-Against-Average and a .879 save percentage. He is facing perhaps the most potent scoring attack in the NHL which generates 4.3 Goals-Per-Game when playing at home at Ball Arena. The Avalanche rank sixth in the league with a Power Play unit that has a 24.3% success rate. The Predators give up 4.78 penalties per game which are the most in the league. Nashville only wins this game by scoring their share of goals. They are led by Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg who both found the back of the net 40 times. They also boast a top-five Power Play unit in the NHL. The Predators have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road after playing a game where at least eight combined goals were scored. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. On the road, the Over is 36-16-1 in their last 53 games — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the total set at 6 or higher. And in their last 8 road games, Nashville has played 7 of these games Over the Total. Additionally, the Predators have played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and they have played 22 of their last 27 games Over the Total against Central Division rivals. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home after a victory against divisional opponents — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a win by three or more goals against a Central Division foe. The Avalanche have now played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Colorado is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 3.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. Darcy Kuemper stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Tuesday — but in his ten starts last month, he registered a lukewarm 3.28 GAA and a .910 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Colorado. Nashville has also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by two or more goals. The Predators can still feel very good about themselves with an upset win tonight — but they can only do that by pulling out a high-scoring game. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (75) and the Colorado Avalanche (76). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (66) versus the St. Louis Blues (65) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (53-23-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 4-0 loss at home to the Blues on Monday. St. Louis (50-23-10) has won four of their last six games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota actually won the expected goals battle by a 3.44 to 3.129 margin — but their inability to score on their six power-play opportunities let them down. The Blues scored on their first two power plays to seize an early lead — and they got a surprising shutout performance from goaltender Ville Husso making his first career postseason start. Minnesota outshot St. Louis by a 37-31 margin. The Wild should play better tonight. They have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have won 15 of their last 18 games after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. Furthermore, Minnesota has won 8 straight games after a loss at home by more than one goal — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games after a loss at home by three or more goals. Additionally, the Wild have won 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than two goals — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after getting shut out in their last game. They stay at home where they have won 51 of their last 68 games — and they have won 43 of their last 54 home games when favored. They have also won 24 of their last 33 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Marc-Andre Fleury will be between the pipes again tonight after stopping 27 shots on Monday but surrendering four goals in that game with three of them coming off rebounds. Fleury is a veteran with plenty of successful playoff experience — and he posted a 9-2-0 record in his 11 starts after being shipped to Minnesota from Chicago at the trade deadline. St. Louis has lost 3 of their last 4 games after a road victory where they shut out their opponent. They have also lost 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Blues have scored at least three goals in six straight games — but they have then lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road after scoring at least three goals in their last four contests. Let’s fade Husso who has been a journeyman goalie before his career season this year as he got more playing time for the fading Jordan Binnington. While Husso had a 2.34 Goals-Against-Average with a .926 save percentage in 21 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 2.82 GAA on the road in 19 games (17 starts) with a .911 save percentage. St. Louis has still lost 6 of their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss at home by four or more goals. 25* NHL 1st Round Central Division Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (66) versus the St. Louis Blues (65). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of this semifinals showdown with a 4-3 victory at home at Etihad Stadium last Tuesday. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is in potent offensive form with all of their attackers healthy and contributing. The Cityzens come off a 4-0 victory at Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday. Man City has scored 16 goals during their current four-game winning streak across all competitions. Manager Pep Guardiola deploys many starting XI lineups that lack a traditional number striker — and they still score plenty of goals with effective midfielders like Kevin DeBruyne, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling. But what has helped the Cityzens in this recent surge is the sudden great form of one of the true number nines on the roster in Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has scored seven goals in his last five starts to offer this side the finisher up top that may be the final piece of the puzzle Guardiola needs to pull off the double of winning a Champions League and the EPL title. Jesus loves playing against Real Madrid — he has three goals with an assist in his three career matches against them. But while the attack is clicking on all cylinders, the Man City defense is not playing at its most optimal level. After Leeds United generated 1.06 expected goals (xG), the Cityzens have allowed four of their last seven opponents to produce at least 1.0 xG — and that does not include the 3-2 loss to Liverpool in the Semifinals of the FA Cup (where expected goals data is not tracked). Guardiola is dealing with an injured backline that is missing John Stones while Kyle Walker and Nathan Are are dealing with knocks. He will have to turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko at right-back who has been a liability on defense in the past. Joao Cancelo returns to the pitch after being suspended for the first match — and while he is a great defender, he also provides the Cityzens a threat in the attack. Real Madrid has won three of their last four matches after a 4-0 victory against Espanyol on Saturday. Los Blancos have scored 13 goals in their last four matches — but they have allowed six goals as well over that span. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is also dealing with injuries on his backline with David Alaba dealing with a knock. He may be available today but he has yet to return to training. The hopes of this Real Madrid side rest on the shoulders of attacker Karim Benzema who is on fire right now. Benzema scored twice in the first leg last week — and he leads all players in the Champions League with 14 goals in the competition. Los Blancos have scored at least one goal in every one of their home matches in the Champions League going back to December of 2018 — and they have to beat the Cityzens by one goal to force extra time to advance to the Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: The pace was frenetic in the first meeting between these sides last week with Man City generating 3.08 xG and Real Madrid countering with 1.66 xG. Los Blancos have a -4.43 net expected goals differential in their last four matches in the Champions League — but be careful reading too much into that. With elite players like Benzema, Vinicius Junior, and Luka Modric, they have the talent that literally produces the positive outlier results from which expected goals data measuring league-wide averages derive. It’s kinda like expecting the Golden State Warriors to stop overperforming relative to the league (last night being an exception) with their 3-point shooting — the Regression Gods are not coming for the players that set the standard from which other player’s expected regression is measured. Another higher-scoring contest is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Liverpool won the first leg between these two teams by a 2-0 score last Wednesday. Villarreal hosts today’s match having to win by at least two goals to force extra time to decide the contest.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are rolling on a five-game winning streak — and they have won 22 of their last 27 matches across all competitions. They come off a 1-0 victory at Newcastle United on Saturday in a match where they limited the Magpies to only 0.16 expected goals. Liverpool’s defense is perhaps playing at its highest level ever under manager Jurgen Klopp. They have now registered four straight clean sheets since beating Man City in the FA Cup Semifinals — and they have conceded a combined 0.86 expected goals allowed (xGA) in those four contests. They absolutely stymied the Yellow Submarines in the first leg last week. Villarreal registered only one shot — and it was not on target — with a mere three touches in the Reds’ penalty area. Liverpool held them to just 0.05 xGA. Villarreal had little success penetrating the midfield line consisting of Thiago and Fabinho — only 13 of their 44 long passes were successful. The Reds, on the other hand, generated 1.75 expected goals (xG) while peppering the Yellow Submarines with 20 shots and 45 touches in their penalty area. Liverpool has been dominant when playing on the road as well. They have not lost on the road in any match since December — and they have won all five of their matches on the road in the Champions League. Villarreal remained flat over the weekend in a 2-1 loss at Alaves in La Liga. They generated only 1.10 xG while conceding 2.35 xGA. Injuries have slowed them down over this recent stretch — but manager Unai Emery does get Gerard Moreno back as an attacker. But the Yellow Submarines’ forward group is still decimated with injuries with their rising star at left-wing Arnaut Danjuma not in the starting XI after not playing over the weekend — and Alberto Moreno and Yeremi Pino are also still on the shelf. Let’s take a grain of salt to the weekend loss to Alaves since Emery rotated players to prepare for this rematch — the priority for this club is the Champions League. But it says something that Villarreal is only in seventh place in La Liga. They beat an overrated Juventus side learning to live life without Ronaldo in the Round of 16 — and then they were fortunate to catch an injured Bayern Munich team in the Quarterfinals. And they either had a lead or were tied with both those clubs going into the second leg which allowed Emery to maintain his low-block defensive stance where they could counter-attack with a healthier forward group. Now, this is Liverpool — one of the top two teams in the world. They will have to play aggressively — and the Reds should punish them in the counterattack. Villarreal is unbeaten in their last 12 matches at home — but they are just fourth at home in points in La Liga. The Yellow Submarines will have to play a style out of their comfort zone against a superior opponent — those are not promising circumstances.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did not win either second leg in the Knockout Stage in this competition — but context is important. The Reds held a 2-0 lead against Inter Milan in the Round of 16 — and when Inter dropped to 10 men after a yellow card, defensive tactics were more than enough to easily survive a 1-0 loss where they advanced with the 2-1 aggregate score. And then Klopp had the luxury of rotating players after winning their first leg with Benfica by a 5-0 score — so the 3-3 result in the second leg continued their overall domination in that match. With a showdown with Man City in the Finals looming, I suspect Klopp will demand a closing effort from his players — and his starting XI is the A-team (save for Jordan Henderson in the midfield who is getting rested). 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with the Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: New York (15-6) has won four of their last five games after their 3-0 victory against the Phillies last night. Philadelphia (10-11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Five New York pitchers combined to no-hit Philadelphia last night. The Mets have won 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. This team looks rejuvenated under veteran manager Buck Showalter — and they are getting the production they expected last year when they signed Francisco Lindor to a huge contract as a free agent. And they are getting great pitching. Showalter turns to Walker tonight who is making just his second appearance this year after going in the injured list with a bout of bursitis in his right shoulder. The right-hander pitched a four-inning simulated game on Monday where he threw 64 pitches. With everything fine from that effort, he will have an 80 to 85 pitch limit tonight. He looked good in his first game of the year against these Phillies against which he struck out four batters in two scoreless innings on April 11th. Walker had a 7-11 record last season with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 159 innings. Walker struggles on the road where he had 5.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 14 starts. But back at home at Citi Field, Walker enjoyed a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 15 starts (16 games). The Mets have won 12 of their last 15 games when Walker is the starting pitcher priced as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. And if he gets in trouble, Showalter can turn to his red-hot bullpen that has a 1.73 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 26 innings at home. The Phillies have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has won 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have won 40 of their last 57 home games when favored. Philadelphia has lost 19 of their last 28 games after playing a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. They are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road where they have a 2-6 record this season — and they have lost 12 of their last 15 games on the road. They counter with Gibson who has a 2-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in four starts. His best work has been at home where he owns a 1.42 ERA and a 0.55 WHIP in two starts — but his two worst starts have been on the road where he has a 5.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .275. These disparate home/road splits corroborate his splits from last year where he had a 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .206 opponent’s batting average in 14 games (13 starts) at home but a 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in 17 starts on the road. Gibson did have a 3.71 ERA last season — but his SIERA and xFIP called for regression with those sabermetrics projecting ERAs of 4.40 and 4.14 respectively. The Phillies have lost 16 of their last 20 road games with Gibson pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And while Gibson also had a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 games (21 starts) at night — as opposed to his 2.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts in the afternoon — Philly has lost 13 of their last 15 road games at night with Gibson on the hill. The Mets have won 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers including five straight winners at home. They are scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game this season against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Bryce Harper has been playing at designated hitter for the Phillies — but he is not at full strength as he is bothered with an elbow. The Mets have won 10 of their 12 games this season when priced as a favorite up to my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (910) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (909) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (59-28) has won three of their last four games with their 111-109 win at against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Minnesota (49-39) hopes to stave off elimination tonight trailing 3-2 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This series has been trending to lower-scoring games. After Game One saw 247 combined points scored, the Total moved up from a closing number in the 238 range for the first game to a closing Total in the 240 range. Game Two saw only 220 combined points scored before Game Three saw the series-low of 199 points. Game Four’s final score upticked back to 237 combined points (thanks for a furious scoring pace in the final minute). Game Five’s final score dropped to 220. Memphis is finding success in this series by winning the battle on the boards. After outrebounding the Timberwolves by a 53-42 margin on Tuesday, the Grizzlies have outrebounded them by at least five boards in the last four games. Memphis has then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by at least five rebounds in fouur straight games. The Grizzlies go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road when favored. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. After exploding 130 points in Game One, the Timberwolves are averaging only 104.8 PPG in the last four games in this series on 42.5% shooting from the field. They have scored more than 109 points just once in these last four games — and they have not cleared 96 points twice in the last four. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Grizzlies outrebound their opponents by +7.0 Rebounds-Per-Game, Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by at least 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game. The T-Wolves have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at Minnesota. 25* NBA Round One Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (54-33) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 103-88 loss at home against the Raptors as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Toronto (50-37) trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers are not as potent on offense since Joel Embiid injured his right thumb on his shooting hand. Philadelphia had a 61.5% effective field goal percentage before the injury — but they have a collective 48.1% effective field goal percentage as a team ever since after making only 38.3% of their shots on Monday. Embiid still scored 20 points in the loss in Game Five — but he cannot carry the team on offense and his outside shot is now limited. He missed all four of his shots from behind the arc in Game Five and his diminished threat as an outside shooter disrupts the team’s spacing on the court. The 76ers’ route to victory tonight is to play better defense after allowing the Raptors to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They go back on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games — and the Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Sixers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Toronto enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 contests after nailing 51.2% of their shots. But the Raptors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory as a road underdog in their last game. They have also played 30 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against Atlantic Division rivals. And while they have only covered the point spread in two of their last seven games, they have then played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Raptors will likely be without Fred VanVleet once again tonight. His absence helps Toronto on defense where he is a liability — but he is perhaps their most reliable scorer. They have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total when playing in Toronto. 25* NBA 1st Round Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (567) and the Toronto Raptors (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (59) and the Seattle Kraken (60). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-27-10) has won four games in a row after their 4-2 victory against Anaheim on Saturday. Seattle (26-47-6) is on a three-game losing streak after their 5-2 loss at Vancouver last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have clinched a spot in the Western Conference playoffs — but they are still jockeying for seeding. This is a defensive-first team that will want to maintain that focus in the final days of regular season before the intensity from the playoffs amps up. Los Angeles has seen six or fewer combined goals scored in eight of their last eleven games. They are only scoring 2.85 Goals-Per-Game in their last 13 contests. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games after a win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Jonathan Quick is the likely goaltender tonight for the Kings. The veteran is playing his best hockey entering the postseason — he has a 2.11 Goals-Against-Average in his seven starts this month. In his last four starts, he has a .944 save percentage — and he has not allowed more than two goals in any of these four games. They hit the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss by three or more goals. The Kraken have seen six or less fewer combined goals scored in seven of their last eleven games. They are likely to turn to Chris Dredger between the pipes tonight. He has allowed two or less goals in four of his last seven starts. He also has played quite well in his two previous starts against Kings against which he stopped 55 of the 58 shots he faced fora  .948 save percentage. This expansion team has been a solid defensive team that ranks ninth in the NHL in expected goals allowed per 60 minutes when playing at five-on-five full strength. Seattle has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles will be motivated to avenge a 6-1 loss at home to the Kraken on March 28th — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (59) and the Seattle Kraken (60). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-39) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing by a 119-95 score at home to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (54-32) has a 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago lost their second-best offensive player yesterday when Zack LaVine once again tested positive for COVID — he is out for tonight’s game. The Bulls will also be without Alex Caruso who is in the concussion protocol. Chicago will miss Caruso’s contributions on defense — but the net effect of losing both players is a net loss on the offensive end of the court. As it is, the Bulls are only scoring 94.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs which is the second-worst of all the teams in the first round of the playoffs. They are making just 39.8% of their shots in this series which is generating only 94.0 Points-Per-Game. Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Central Division rival. And while they have lost seven of their last nine games, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulls have played 5 straight playoff games Under the Total. And in their last 20 games against division opponents, Chicago has played 16 of these contests Under the Total while scoring just 102.4 PPG in those 20 games — but allowing only 105.1 PPG. Milwaukee has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on the road. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucks will continue to playing without Khris Middleton who scored 20.1 PPG and averaged 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. Milwaukee has stepped up to nail 43.2% of their 74 shots from behind the arc in their last two games. The Bucks shoot 36.4% from 3-point range at home — so the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit. Milwaukee made 52.3% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting mark in their last seven contests. The Under is 15-5-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games in the playoffs when favored. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against Central Division rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. Chicago has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road when avenging a 20-point loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (553) and the Milwaukee Bucks (554). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-28) had won the previous two games in this series before losing on the road to the Timberwolves by a 119-118 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (49-38) has evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota had most things go right for them in Game Four. They made 47.3% of their shots from the field — their best shooting effort since Game One — and nailed 18 of their 36 (50%) shots from behind the arc. After losing the free throw attempt battle by at least four shots in each of the first three games of the series, they took 40 shots from the charity stripe on Sunday — and they converted 31 of these shots which were six more than all of Memphis’ attempts from the free-throw line. Karl Anthony-Towns exploded with 33 points while steering away from the foul problems that plagued him in the previous two games. Ja Morant only scored 11 points on 4 of 13 shooting. Yet despite all these fortunate events, Minnesota only won the game by one point. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset win at home. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road as an underdog. Memphis has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Taylor Jenkins ripped the referees after the game for the foul disparity — look for the Grizzlies to once again win the free throw attempt battle back on their home court. Morant should play better back at home as well. He has a 52.3% effective field goal percentage with a 40.4% shooting clip at home as opposed to his 46.6% effective field goal percentage and 29.6% mark from 3-point range on the road. Memphis has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (542) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Chicago (47-38) has lost six of their last eight games after their 111-81 loss at home to the Bucks as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (53-32) took a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: We were not surprised that the Bucks stepped up to play their best game in this series in Game Three in response to Khris Middleton’s MCL strain in Game Two which will keep him out the rest of the series. But with the knowledge that the defending champions gained that they can raise their level of play and blow this Chicago team off the court, do they resort back to the lackadaisical group that was sluggish in the first two games of this series? Milwaukee swept the Bulls in their four regular-season games by a +14.7 net Points-Per-Game average. But they only made 40.5% of their shots in Game One which was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games before losing Game Two with their mild improvement in shooting to a 45.8% clip. Sloppiness with the basketball played a large role in the first two games — they committed 21 turnovers in Game One before committing 15 turnovers in Game Two. The Bucks were better in protecting the basketball on Friday with them only turning the ball over nine times. But with point guard George Hill still out with an abdominal injury, don’t be surprised if these turnover issues rear its ugly head again. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. Milwaukee made 47.3% of their shots without Middleton in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the Bucks are likely to have trouble consistently getting baskets without Middleton who was scoring 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Milwaukee was fifth in the NBA by scoring 115.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time — but that clip drops to 109.7 points per 100 possessions when playing without Middleton on the court. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% range. Chicago has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing two of their last three games. After a sluggish second half to the season, the Bulls have more closely resembled the team that opened the campaign with a 27-11 record. Getting Alex Caruso back from injury has made a big difference as he is the team’s best player on defense. The team certainly still misses Lonzo Ball — but their team dynamic may be better served to compete under the pressure of playoff basketball. They have a savvy veteran in DeMar DeRozan who silenced his critics that he disappears in the playoffs from his past experiences with Toronto and San Antonio by scoring 41 points in their upset win in Game Two. Chicago only made 9 of their 34 shots from behind the arc on Friday for a 26% shooting percentage en route to a 39.3% mark for the game. They should shoot better in Game Four on their home court again where they make 48.3% of their shots including 36.8% of their shots from 3-point range to generate 113.4 PPG. The Bulls had a 27-14 record while covering the point spread in 25 of their 41 games on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (522) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (58-27) won their second straight game in this series with their 104-95 victory against the Timberwolves as a 2-point road favorite on Thursday. Minnesota (48-38) blew a 26-point lead in the game and now trail 2-1 in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Taylor Jenkins has made an important adjustment in this series which should generate lowering-scoring games. After the Timberwolves scored 130 points in their 13-point upset victory, Jenkins only played big man Steven Adams for less in three minutes in Game Two with the Grizzlies holding Minnesota to 96 points. Adams did not play in Game Three. Karl Anthony-Towns was too much for Adams to defend — but Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke have been a handful for Towns to handle. Towns scored only 8 points on Thursday while taking a mere four shots from the field. The T-Wolves scored just 12 points in the fourth quarter in their historic collapse which was the biggest blown lead in loss in the history of the NBA playoffs. Memphis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 105 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no more than 100 points. The Grizzlies are a very good defensive team who ranked sixth in the NBA by holding their opponents to scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and they are better on that end of the court when benching Adams (while losing his significant offensive contributions). Memphis is fourth in Offensive Rating this season — but they score -2.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when playing on the road at a 112.3 rate, dropping to tenth in the league. The Grizzlies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, Memphis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Minnesota is seventh in the NBA by scoring at a 113.8 points per 100 possession rate — but their offensive efficiency at home drops to 111.8 points per 100 possession rate which is 19th in the league. The Timberwolves are scoring just 95.5. Points-Per-Game in the last two games in this series — and now their leading scorer, Anthony Edwards, might be slowed with a knee injury. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The pace has slowed down in this series — and that is likely to continue. Memphis averages 94 shots per game — but they attempted only 83 shots on Thursday after taking 86 and 92 shots in the first games in this series. Minnesota averages 91 shots per game — but after taking 90 shots in Game One with Adams still in the rotation, the T-Wolves took only 76 shots in Game Two and 85 shots in Game Three. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Under the Total. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (517) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (52-32) looks to rebound from a 114-110 upset loss at home to the Bulls as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. Chicago (47-37) evened this series at 1-1 with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee had their worst shooting game in 35 contests in Game One of this series by making just 40.5% of their shots. Rather than tightening things up, the Bucks were flat — particularly on defense — in Game Two against a team they had beaten in all five of their meetings this season. It is not uncommon for reigning NBA champions to become complacent. But now after that embarrassing result at home and now the series-ending injury to Khris Middleton, Milwaukee has lost the luxury of thinking they can take things for granted. The loss of Middleton is tough — but head coach Mike Budenholzer has credible options to turn to in Bobby Ports, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez remain as core pieces to this championship team. And the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring 30 Points-Per-Game in this series on 53.8% shooting while averaging 17 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Led by Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee should play their best game of the series tonight with this new sense of urgency. As it is, the Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored. This veteran team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when the series is tied. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win against a Central Division rival. Now the Bulls return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 72 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog this season. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against the Bulls in Chicago. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss where they were at least a 7-point favorite. 25* NBA ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Milwaukee Bucks (503) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Toronto (48-36) has lost three straight games after losing on the road to the 76ers by a 112-97 score as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Philadelphia (53-31) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: It may look tough to back Toronto after losing the first two games of this series by 20 and 15 points. Injuries have played a role. Scottie Barnes is still listed as doubtful tonight with his ankle injury but Gary Trent, Jr. should play after playing 10 minutes on Monday. He was not effective but the two additional days of fluids should help him play better tonight after a case of the flu. The Raptors still lack the size to deal with Joel Embiid with Barnes out — but in head coach Nick Nurse, I trust, to get this team playing better back on their home court. Toronto has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after losing two in a row by 15 or more points. Toronto has not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a three-game losing streak. The Sixers have made 51.2% and 52.2% of their shots in this series — but the Raptors have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to nail at least 50% of their shots. Back at home, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against teams with a winning record — and they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. And while the 76ers have won their last four games by at least 12 points, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. Philly held the Raptors to just 42.7% shooting on Monday which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But now this team goes back on the road where they have not been as effective. They are not likely to continue a 32 to 17.5 free throw attempt average as they have enjoyed in the first two games in Philadelphia. The Sixers will probably see fewer of their 3-pointers fall in Toronto as well — while they are nailing a red-hot 49% of their shots from behind the arc in this series, they should come closer to their 36.7% shooting percentage from 3-point range moving forward. Philly will not have Matisse Thybulle tonight since he is not vaccinated against COVID which precludes him from traveling to Canada. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Toronto against the Raptors. 25* NBA Round One Eastern Conference Playoff Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (564) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-27) has lost four of their last five games after their 130-117 upset loss to the Timberwolves in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Minnesota (48-36) has won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis’ lack of playoff experience may have caught up with them in their opening game in the playoffs this postseason against a Timberwolves team that got through the Play-In Tournament. But the Grizzlies remain a talented and deep team that was just one of two teams in the NBA to post a top-six ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Ratings. They have allowed three of their last four opponents to make at least 50% of their shots — and they missed 20 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Saturday. Memphis locked up the second seed before the regular season ended — and now it is the time for them to ramp up their intensity again under head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Grizzlies have Ja Morant back — and Jenkins is one of the best young coaches in the game. They should respond with a strong effort to even this series at 1-1. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 51 games after a loss by double-digits. They still have a 30-11 record on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. Minnesota got what they needed with the victory in Game One to seize home-court advantage in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when avenging a double-digit loss. I appreciate that Minnesota is better than their record after enduring a regular-season dealing with injuries and COVID issues. But they too are inexperienced in the postseason. Don’t be surprised if their effort is underwhelming tonight. As it is, the T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games in Memphis. 25* NBA-TV Game of the Year is on the Memphis Grizzlies (552) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (48-35) looks to rebound from their 123-107 loss in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Golden State (54-29) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors made 52.4% of their shots on Saturday while nailing 16 of their 35 shots from behind the arc. Stephen Curry returned from injury to play over 21 minutes and score 16 points. But it was Jordan Poole who led the way with 30 points on 9 of 13 shooting. Overall, Golden State scored a scorching 129.4 points per 100 possession rate. With Curry rejoining Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Poole, the Warriors are a dynamic scoring team. But it is too much to expect consistent performances like what they did to the Nuggets on Saturday. The Regression Gods are likely coming for this team tonight. While they are a great outside shooting team, a clip more like their 37.2% shooting percentage from behind the arc when playing at home is more likely tonight. And while Curry is a cheat code who unlocks scoring opportunities for others when he is not knocking down 3-pointers, Golden State scored at a 114.1 points per 100 possession rate with him on the court this season — so Game One’s numbers were definitely a high-end outlier. But the Warriors should play better on the other end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 46.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Golden State is second in the NBA by holding their opponents to 107.6 points per 100 possessions — and much of those numbers were generating without an injured Draymond Green. They held their opponents to more than 3 fewer points per 100 possessions with Green on the court in the regular season. The Warriors were also third in the NBA by limiting their opponents to scoring at just a 91.2 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court where Denver does most of their damage via Nikola Jokic. Golden State has played 35 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — including 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 10 or more points. The Warriors have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning six in a row. And in their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days, they have played 17 of these games Under the Total. In their last five games at home in Chase Arena, Golden State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver should play better on defense as the 52.4% field goal percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have issues on defense — but their starting five does hold their opponents to just 106.5 points per 100 possessions which would rank second in the league if compared to overall regular season averages. Perhaps head coach Michael Malone will adjust by shortening his bench even more. The Warriors made Jokic work very hard on both ends of the court on Saturday. He scored 25 points but he also took 25 shots from the field. Green will continue to make his life difficult. While he did not play in any of the four games in the regular season between these two clubs, Green had held Jokic to just 15.7 Points-Per-Game with a 47.9% field goal percentage in his previous 18 games in his career to defend him. The Nuggets lack a reliable secondary scorer to complement Jokic with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. still out with injuries. Denver only got to the rim for 20% of their shots in Game One — the Warriors may be able to reduce Denver to mostly a jump-shooting team. The Nuggets score 2.1 fewer PPG on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: While Game One finished Over the Total, these two teams have still played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games in Golden State Under the Total. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (545) and the Golden State Warriors (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (38-46) has won seven of their last ten games after their 105-101 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1.5-point on Friday. Phoenix (64-18) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-109 upset loss as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans have proven they can ramp up their intensity on defense in the postseason after holding their two opponents in the Play-In Tournament to just 40.9% shooting which has resulted in just 102.0 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. The Pelicans stay on the road to begin this series where the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans has also played 25 of their last 34 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Phoenix allowed the Kings to nail 52.6% of their shots last week with their key players resting — that was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the Suns’ last 26 games after a straight-up loss. Phoenix has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. The Suns play outstanding defense — they rank third in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They host this game where they have played 4 straight Unders when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 40 games Under the Total in the with the Total set in the 220s. Additionally, the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 15th with the Suns winning in New Orleans by a 131-115 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pelicans have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total when playing on the road attempting to avenge a home loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing with revenge from a  loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (531) and the Phoenix Suns (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Memphis (56-26) enters the playoffs having lost three of their last four games after their 139-110 loss to Boston as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (47-36) has won four of their last six games after their 109-104 win against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3.5-point favorite in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves orchestrated a dramatic comeback by rallying from a six-point deficit entering the fourth quarter by outscoring the Clippers by a 31-20 margin despite playing most of that final 12 minutes with Karl Anthony-Towns. After the game, Patrick Beverley partied like it was 1999 in front of the home fans after sticking it to his former team. Anthony Edwards scored 30 points and D’Angelo Russell added 29 points. After that accomplishment, I am expecting a big emotional letdown with this team now in the official playoffs. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a victory by six points or less. The Timberwolves are a tough out at home where they have a 27-15 record. But on the road, Minnesota is just 20-21 while allowing their opponents to make 48.4% of their shots. The T-Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, they may be without Taurean Prince for this game who is questionable with a knee injury. The former Baylor star scored 10.5 Points-Per-Game while averaging more than 20 minutes per game off the bench since the All-Star break. Memphis has rested all week licking their chops for their opponent to survive the Play-In Tournament — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They rested their starters last Sunday in a game where they only made 38.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 23 games. But the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 125 or more points in their last contest. Memphis has been dominant at home with a 30-11 record — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 41 games. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team has Ja Morant back in the mix after he missed extended time in the second half of the season. Memphis is real good — only they and Phoenix finished the regular season ranked in the top-six and Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis will be motivated to avenge a 119-114 upset loss at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite on February 24th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. The Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against the Grizzlies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games in Memphis. 25* NBA Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (520) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-39) has lost four of their last five games after their 115-108 loss at Brooklyn as a 9.5-point underdog in their first Play-In game on Tuesday. Atlanta (44-39) won their eighth game in their last ten games with a 132-103 victory against Charlotte as a 5-point favorite in their first Play-In game on Wednesday. The winner of this game seizes the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and plays at Miami on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed the Nets to make 53.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst defensive mark in their last 11 games. But after digging themselves a hole early with a 20-point deficit after the first quarter, the Cavs did keep fighting to stay competitive and cover the point spread. Darius Garland was outstanding as he nailed 13 of his 24 shots en route to 34 points. Cleveland is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread win. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have dropped six of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Returning home will help this team where they were 25-16 this season (as opposed to their 19-23 record on the road). They are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games as an underdog. Cleveland also may get Jarrett Allen back for this game — and that would be a big shot in the arm for this team. The Cavaliers already got rookie big man Evan Mobley back earlier this week — and if they can also get Allen back on the court after missing 19 games from a finger injury, they have their dynamic duo in the middle which makes them a very difficult team to score against. With Allen on the court, Cleveland allows -3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game — and he clearly wants to play given that the Cavs’ season could end tonight with a loss. Even if Allen does not play, Cleveland should stay competitive in this game with a real chance to extend their season. Having a veteran like Rajon Rondo playing alongside Garland should help in this one-and-done playoff game. Atlanta comes off one of their best games of the season. They held the Hornets to just 37.8% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 35 games. They also nailed 52.1% of their shots which was the best shooting percentage in their last seven contests. Trae Young scored 24 points but only on 8 of 24 shooting. Five other players scoring in double figures helped compensate for Young missing seven of his eight shots from behind the arc. Interestingly, the deeper analytics projected that the Hawks would typically only win that game against the Hornets by six points based on the expected points from the quality of shots taken. A letdown looks likely for this team — and this is a group not playing at full strength who has not been nearly as effective on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta thrives at home where they have a 28-14 record — but they are just 16-25 on the road. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when favored by up to six points. Injuries continue to keep this team undermanned. Lou Williams is out and now Bogan Bogdanovich is questionable with an ankle. But it is the likely absence of big man John Collins for the 18th straight game that looms most ominous in this matchup. Atlanta needs his size against Mobley and potentially Allen in the middle. The Hawks have managed to out-rebound their last three opponents by at least ten boards after winning the rebounding battle against the Hornets by a 54-41 margin. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after out-rebounding their last three opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Hawks have won the last three meetings between these two teams — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with triple revenge. The recent success against Cleveland — and their easy one on Wednesday — may work against this Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Game of the Year with the Cleveland Cavaliers (510) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (36-46) enters this game coming off two straight losses after a 128-107 loss to Golden State as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. San Antonio (34-48) has lost three in a row after their 130-120 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday to determine the 8th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans had won eight of eleven games to clinch hosting this play-in game before dropping their last two games with nothing more that was mathematically possible to gain. This team is much better than their record. The Pelicans started the season by losing 13 of 16 games dealing with not having Zion Williamson on the court. But the team adapted and started playing better under rookie head coach Willie Greene. This club was then transformed with the acquisition of C.J. McCollum at the trade deadline. The former Portland Trail Blazer is scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game while making 49.3% of his shots — and he is averaging a career-high in assists and rebounds while embracing a leadership role he could never have playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland. McCollum offers the team a dynamic one-two punch with Brandon Ingram. Although those two only played 15 games together this season, they won nine of those contests. Ingram was dealing with a hamstring injury last week but he has been upgraded to probable alongside Jonas Valuncianas, Devonte Graham, and Herbert Jones who should all be good to go. Since the All-Star break, New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in Net Rating while ranking 10th in the league with their Offensive Rating and ninth with their Defensive Rating. They did allow the Warriors to make 60.5% of their shots on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in their last two contests. Additionally, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Spurs are solid but unspectacular. They rank 17th in Net Rating for the season with an Offensive Rating that is 17th in the NBA and a Defensive Rating that is 16th. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio ranks 19th in Net Rating, placing 17th still in Offensive Rating and 16th in Defensive Rating. Their .414 winning percentage would not have been good enough to reach the Play-In Tournament last season, but they were the beneficiaries of the second-half collapses by the Lakers and Trail Blazers. Future Hall of Fame head coach Gregg Popovich has gotten the most out of his roster. But New Orleans holds a significant talent edge now that they have McCollum playing alongside Ingram. The Spurs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio allows their opponents to make 46.6% of their shots — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 46% of their shots. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won their third match in their last four contests with a 1-0 victory at home against Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday. Villarreal settled with a 1-1 draw against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga on Saturday. Villarreal won the first leg last Wednesday by a 1-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Bavarians may have been taking the Yellow Submarine lightly last week — but they were thoroughly outplayed as they lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.61 to 1.23 margin. Frankly, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is fortunate to only be trailing by one goal. But a two-goal victory tonight is all the Bavarians need to advance to the Semifinals. Injuries have impacted this team. Their star Canadian midfielder, Alphonso Davies, had been out but did get back on the pitch last week. He might have been dealing with fitness issues but he has now played in two matches after coming off the bench on the weekend. Midfielder Leon Goretzka has also been hobbled and came off the bench in the first leg — but he should get the start in this crucial rematch. Bayern Munich got blanked for just the second time in a Champions League since February 2020. But now the Bavarians return home to Allianz Arena where they are generating 3.25 xG in the Champions League this season and where they are posting 2.68 xG in the Bundesliga this year. They have won five of their last six games at home across all competitions. It has also been over three years since Bayern Munich has not scored at least two goals in a Champions League match at home. Villarreal is playing at their best in European competition — yet their form in domestic play has to be a concern. They are just W1-D1-L3 in their last five matches in La Liga while scoring only twice. They are not likely to qualify for European play next year through the Spanish top-flight given their current seventh place in the standings, trailing Real Sociedad by eight points. Their draw with Athletic Bilbao on Saturday was against the eighth-place team in the league, although manager Unai Emery did make 11 lineup changes for that match from the first leg. But while Villarreal is now unbeaten in 11 straight matches at home, they have not been nearly as effective when playing on the road. In domestic play, the Yellow Submarine is W9-D5-L2 at home while averaging a +1.02 net expected goal differential per 90 minutes. But on the road in La Liga, Villarreal is just W3-D5-L7 while averaging just a +0.09 net expected goal differential.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was flat in their first leg match against RB Salzburg in the Round of 16 in the Champions League where they settled with a 1-1 draw — but they rebounded the next week back at home with a 7-1 thrashing to easily advance to the Quarterfinals. While I do not expect seven more goals tonight, a decisive effort is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the New York Rangers (12). THE SITUATION: New York (46-20-6) has won two straight games and six of their last eight contests after their 3-0 shutout victory against Pittsburgh on Thursday. Ottawa (26-38-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped with their 3-2 loss to Nashville on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have seen no more than six combined goals scored in eight of their last twelve games. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory. While the team improved their depth at the trade deadline with several additions to the team, New York still ranks 28th in the league in five-on-five scoring. Goalie Igor Shesterkin is the difference-maker for this team. He stopped all 30 shots he faced against the Penguins for that shutout. He has not allowed more than three goals in five straight starts. Shesterkin leads the league with a .935 save percentage — and he also leads the NHL in saves above expected saves rate. He thrives when playing at home in Madison Square Garden where he has a 1.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .940 save percentage in 25 starts. The Rangers have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow Eastern Conference opponents — and the Under is 26-10-1 in their last 37 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. Ottawa has played 13 of the last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Senators are just 22nd in the NHL in expected goals when playing at five-on-five even strength — and they will be missing two of their offensive threats with Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson out for tonight’s game with injuries. But Ottawa remains a feisty opponent given their physical defensive play. They are 12th in the league with their Power Play Kill Unit. They are also getting outstanding play from Anton Forsberg who will be between the pipes tonight. He has a .925 save percentage in his last nine starts while not allowing more than three goals in all nine games. In 19 starts on the road, Forsberg has a 2.42 Goals-Against-Average and a .925 save percentage. The Under is 10-3-1 in Ottawa’s last 14 road games as an underdog. Additionally, the Under is 18-7-1 in the Senators’ last 26 games as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the Metropolitan Division.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played seven of their last eight encounters with no more than six combined goals scored. The Under is 19-6-4 in the last 29 games played between these two teams at Madison Square Garden. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the New York Rangers (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (567) and the Chicago Bulls (568). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (48-30) has lost two games in a row with their 118-112 upset loss to Dallas as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Chicago (45-33) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 127-109 loss to Miami as a 2-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks allowed the Mavericks to make 51.3% of their shots on Sunday — and that was after they allowed the Los Angeles Clippers to nail 60.9% of their shots on Friday in a 153-119 upset loss at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez against the Clippers but they returned to the court on Sunday. With the playoffs looming and playing against a potential first-round opponent in the Bulls, this game is a good opportunity for the reigning NBA champions to re-embrace playoff intensity on the defensive end of the court. As it is, the Bucks have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Milwaukee has also played 4 straight Unders after losing two straight games at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after getting upset at home in their last two games. With Lopez back on the court after missing much of the season injured, he offers the team their best interior defender. His post-up ability also slows down their offense when they get into their half-court offense. With the potential of earning the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs still viable, the Bucks have plenty to still play for in the regular season. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. They have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Chicago allowed the Heat to nail 53.7% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. They should tighten things up on defense tonight in this Central Division showdown. The Bulls have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. After a great start to the season, the Bulls have cooled off significantly — and a rash of injuries has not helped matters. The Bulls have lost nine of their last fifteen games whole posting a 110.3 Offensive Rating during that span, ranking 28th in the league. They are making only 46.5% of their shots with a 33.2% shooting mark from behind the arc in their last 15 games as compared to their 48.0% field goal percentage and 36.8% clip from 3-point range for the season. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bulls have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 126-96 loss in Milwaukee on March 22nd — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a 20 point loss. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Chicago. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents — and the Bucks have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow divisional rivals. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (567) and the Chicago Bulls (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: David McCormack may have played the best game of his career on Saturday by making 10 of 12 shots in the field en route to his 25 points. He dominated the Wildcats inside and took full advantage of their lack of size. But McCormack has been enigmatic his entire career — he has a high ceiling but his biggest challenge has been maintaining consistency from game to game. McCormack is emblematic of this entire Kansas team: when they are playing at their best, they look unbeatable. But too often this Jayhawks team gets in their own way as they seem to lose focus. After trailing Miami (FL) 35-29 at half-time in their Elite Eight, Kansas has probably their best 60 consecutive minutes all season. But, frankly, I will pay to see if they can nail 13 of 24 (54%) of their 3-pointers as they did against Villanova. The Jayhawks had only made 33% of their shots from behind the arc in their 11 previous games on a neutral court before Saturday. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after nailing at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game. This Jayhawks team was flat in the first half against the Hurricanes last weekend. They struggled against an injured Creighton team playing without their best two players. They let Providence back in their Round of 32 game despite the Friars not being able to hit the side of a barn for most of that contest.

Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into Saturday in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Duke game). What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on Saturday who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: I will not be surprised if Kansas does not play as well as they did on Saturday. But even if they play at the same high level as they did in the second half against Miami (FL) and Villanova, I still expect North Carolina to be very competitive. The Jayhawks will not be able to dominate the offensive boards like they did the Wildcats by pulling down 37.0% of their missed shots. North Carolina ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.6% of their missed shots. The Tar Heels are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog.  I think North Carolina wins straight-up — but I do not recommend “sprinkling” (such a lame phrasing for throwing one’s money away) any money on them with the money-line. Why forego the insurance that is the 4 or so points they are getting in this game? If you want to make more money, then parlay the Tar Heels (with the points) with my totals play for this game. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: Before the season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams who made significant advances midseason with the benefit of coaching kicking in after the chaos of the COVID-tainted campaign the year before. It took North Carolina’s victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considers the Tar Heels the best team in the nation in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also rank North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th. What stands out for me with this team is their balance. Four different players have led them in scoring in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against the Peacocks. What these Tar Heels can do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina has seen at least one player nail at least four 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.2% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels are rolling — and I expect the momentum to continue. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, North Carolina is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog. We have backed Duke in their last two wins (and covers) against Arkansas and Texas Tech — but I hate this spot for them. I suspect this the game that the enormous pressure this young team has in carrying the legacy of head coach Mike Krzyzewski in his final games before retirement. I heard some pundits comment that the pressure was higher in their final home game at Cameroon Indoor against this Tar Heels team with all the alumni in the house. While I appreciate there was pressure then, to suggest that a regular-season game on the second Saturday in March presented more pressure than a Final Four is ludicrous. And, by the way, this team did not handle that pressure very well in that 94-81 loss. The team trends point to this being a letdown spot for Duke. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least four in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They have scored at least 78 points in each of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. The Blue Devils have some issues. They only rank 45th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they fall slightly to 51st in the nation in that metric in their last ten games. It is their half-court defense that is the biggest weakness as their opponents have a 47.0% effective field goal percentage against them, ranking just 48th in the nation. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament. These teams share more than having campuses within eight miles of each other. The profile of both teams is dynamic offenses with athletes that crash the glass on both ends of the court — and while neither team forces turnovers, they both rank in the top seven in the nation in opponent foul rate. But it is North Carolina that ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 21.2% of their missed shots.

FINAL TAKE: Duke has the revenge angle here from that 13-point loss as an 11-point favorite — but the historical numbers in the NCAA Tournament regarding teams looking to avenge a same-season loss favor the team that won the previous game. Admittedly, that is from a limited sample size over many years — but it suggests that the market might be overvaluing Duke as if the revenge angle means they “really, really” want to win as opposed to just “really” wanting to beat UNC. Furthermore, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss where they were favored by at least seven points — including failing to cover the spread in three of those four opportunities this season. Duke has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home under Coach K. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. Villanova already plays at a snail’s pace — they average 19.9 seconds-per-possession, ranking 349th in the nation, and their games average only 62.6 possessions per game, ranking 345th in the country. Look for head coach Jay Wright to demand his team be even more patient on offense without Moore as a scoring option — they will probably average more than 20 seconds per possession. Wright will want to shorten this game — and then maybe Collin Gillespie and his veteran teammates can steal it late. This was the formula for success against Houston (even with Wright) as they only made 28.8% of their shots — but their defense stymied the Cougars who only made 29.8% of their shots. Villanova has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. But in their ten games played on a neutral court, Villanova ranks 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which is fine but -7.7 adjusted points per 100 possessions less than what they generate at home, where they rank 3rd in the nation. Incidentally, the Wildcats see their average possessions drop to a 61.7 average on neutral courts. Villanova has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Kansas is playing their best defense of the season after holding the Hurricanes to just 34.5% shooting last weekend. That was the fourth straight game where they did not allow an opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots from the field. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. Look for the Wildcats to bypass offensive rebounding to get back on defense — not only will that help stifle the Jayhawks' attack, but it will also limit their own second-chance scoring opportunities. Villanova will try to make up the difference with 3-point shooting since they attempt 46.1% of their shots from downtown, ranking 26th in the nation. But Kansas holds their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 17th in the country. By the way, while the Wildcats make 41.3% of their shots from 3-point range at home, ranking 6th in the nation, that proficiency plummets to a 31.9% clip when playing on a neutral court, ranking 183rd in the country — and those numbers include Moore’s contributions who is a 35.6% shooter from distance. The Jayhawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and the Jayhawks have played 28 of their last 41 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (43) and the Calgary Flames (44). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-23-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 4-3 loss in overtime at Edmonton on Wednesday. Calgary (40-19-7) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 2-1 loss to Colorado on Tuesday.

UPDATE (8:45 PM ET): I am seeing that the Kings are sending out Cal Peterson in goal, going against the earlier projections (although the LA goalie was never announced before pre-skate). The Over is still a 25* play — Peterson has a 2.83 GAA and an .899 save percentage since the All-Star Break and a 2.88 GAA with an .899 save percentage in 16 starts on the road this season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kings are ravaged with injuries on their blue line right now. Drew Doughty, Sean Walker, Matt Roy, and Mikey Anderson are all out. Not coincidentally, Los Angeles has allowed 3.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five games. They have seen at least six combined goals in five straight games. But the Kings’ offense has stepped up as of late as they are averaging 3.5 Goals-Per-Game in their last four contests. For the season, Los Angeles is eighth in the NHL in expected goals at even strength five-on-five. The Kings have played 4 straight games Over the Total after going to overtime in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least three goals. Furthermore, while Los Angeles has seen seven combined goals scored in two straight contests, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. Jonathan Quick will be the goaltender tonight. For the season, he has a middling 2.68 Goals-Against-Average and a .909 save percentage in 38 starts — but his performance has dipped since the All-Star Break with a 2.83 GAA and a .898 save percentage in his last ten starts. Quick has a 3.23 GAA and an .873 save percentage in seven starts against Pacific Division rivals. Moving forward, the Over is 5-0-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Calgary has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by one goal on home ice. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two goals — and the Over is 18-6-3 in their last 27 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. And while the Flames have peppered at least 31 shots in five straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total after playing five straight games where they registered at least 30 shots. Calgary had seen at least six combined goals scored in four straight games before their contest with the Avalanche. They are fourth in the NHL in expected goals scored at even strength — and they are scoring 4.0 Goals-Per-Game in their last seven contests. They counter with Jacob Markstrom between the pipes tonight. While he has a 2.16 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 52 starts this season — but he carries an .889 save percentage in his last four starts. He also has a 2.61 GAA with a .909 save percentage in his 15 starts against Pacific Division rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-0-1 in the Kings’ last 6 games against Western Conference foes — and the Over is 3-1-1 in the Flames’ last 5 games against Western Conference opponents. 25* NHL Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (43) and the Calgary Flames (44). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (27-12) has won 11 of their last 12 games with a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament on Tuesday. Xavier (22-13) has won five of their last six games after their 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Buzz Williams complained loudly about the tragic injustice it was that his Texas A&M team did not get an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament after beating Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the championship game. It’s shame this small private school scarping for money can’t catch a break — especially after losing nine of ten games during a midseason slump. No one is feeling sorry for Texas A&M — and often teams that feel robbed from an at-large bid then fall flat in the NIT. Credit goes to Williams for keeping his team focused as they have beaten all four of their opponents in this tournament by at least 12 points. Now with one game away from taking the title, look for another strong effort from the Aggies. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The calling card for this team is defense — they rank 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while rising 10th in the country in that metric over their last ten games. After limiting the Cougars to just 34.5% shooting on Tuesday, they have held their last five opponents to no better than 39.3% field goal percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing at last three straight opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Xavier made 53.1% of their shots in their victory against the Bonnies which was the best shooting mark in their last five games. But the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Xavier has faced turmoil all season. After an 11-2 start to their Big East campaign, they lost 11 of their next 17 conference games which cost them a spot in the Big Dance. After beating Cleveland State in the first round of the NIT, the program let head coach Travis Steele. Assistant coach Jonas Hayes took over on an interim basis with the university re-hiring Sean Miller after his tumultuous run at Arizona. The team also lost their fifth-year senior point guard Paul Scruggs to a season-ending injury in their second NIT game against Florida. This leaves the Musketeers short-handed with just a six-man rotation. Scruggs was the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 11.7 Points-Per-Game — and he led the team by dishing out 4.1 Assists-Per-Game. He is critical in protecting the basketball against pressure as well — in that game against the Gators where he got injured, Xavier turned the ball over 18 times representing 24.0% of their possessions. Now they face a Texas A&M team that is eighth in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. The Aggies’ depth is also a strength as they rank 23rd in the nation in bench minutes with 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Williams will be able to throw waves of players and pressure at a Xavier team missing their floor general.

FINAL TAKE: The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year is on the Texas A&M Aggies (652) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (651). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (39-37) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 113-109 loss to Denver as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (34-42) has won four games in a row with their 109-104 upset victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: Charlotte has been playing well — despite that loss to the Nuggets. They have won seven of their last nine games and appear entrenched to at least qualify for the Play-In games for the postseason as they are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the eighth spot by one game. After struggling to replace the injured Gordon Hayward’s contributions, they are getting solid across-the-board play from P.J. Washington. The former Kentucky star is scoring 11.3 Points-Per-Game this month while adding 4.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 3.1 Assists-Per-Game and making 35.4% of his shots from 3-point range. The Hornets are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They go back on the road where they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games — and they had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. Furthermore, Charlotte is 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York is starting to play better now that they have likely buried their shot at making the playoffs. They are 4 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the tenth spot in the Eastern Conference. In their upset victory against the Bulls, they held Chicago to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games, and tied for the best performance on that end of the court in their last ten contests. But the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by six points or less. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Injuries remain an issue for this team. They are without Cam Reddish, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker with the latter put on the shelf because he does not fit head coach Tom Thibodeau’s plans. Nerlens Noel and Quentin Grimes are both out tonight with injuries — and Evan Fournier is questionable for reasons listed as “personal”. This team is going nowhere this year — and taking some days off down the stretch as they softly tank appears likely. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte will be motivated to avenge a 121-106 loss at home to the Knicks on March 23rd. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (565) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (22-14) won their seventh game in their last eight with their 77-58 upset victory at BYU as a 2.5-point underdog last Wednesday in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. Texas A&M (26-12) has won 10 of their last 11 contests with their 67-52 victory against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite in their Quarterfinals match on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars made 43.9% of their shots against BYU which was their best shooting mark in their last five games. They are only making 38.3% of their shots in their last five games. Washington State finds success on the other end of the court where they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While BYU made 41.1% of their shots against them last week, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has 75 and 77 points in their last two contests — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Cougars cannot shoot — they rank 263rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.1% while ranking 313th in the country by making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc. Furthermore, they have played 16 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing for no more than the second time in the last eight days. Additionally, Washington State has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to no better than 39.3% shooting after the Demon Deacons only made 34.0% of their shots against them last week. The Aggies have not allowed more than 65 points in six straight games — and their last two opponents in this tournament have not topped 60 points. Texas A&M has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home. This play on defense has helped the Aggies play four straight Unders. They have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Texas A&M wants to get their offense in transition by forcing turnovers — they rank eighth in the nation by triggering turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. But this is going to be tough against this Cougars team that only turns the ball in 16.4% of their possessions, ranking 50th in the nation. The Aggies can get bogged down in the half-court with their offense. They only make 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 231st in the nation — and they only made 29.0% of their 3-pointers in the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has played 4 straight Unders when the favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (31-6) has won eight games in a row after their 66-61 victory against Providence as a 7-point favorite on Friday. Miami (FL) (26-10) has won six of their last seven contests with their 70-56 win against Iowa State as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas can be a frustrating team to watch — but they have a significant talent edge in this game which should shine through in the end. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least two in a row without covering the point spread as a favorite. Kansas is playing well on the defensive end of the court. They have not allowed a tournament opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots after holding the Friars to just 33.8% shooting — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% of their shots. The Jayhawks are a bit better than their metrics suggest now that Remy Martin is healthy again and fully in the mix. He has scored double-digits in five straight games while leading the team with 58 points so far in this tournament. Kansas is efficient on offense as they usually take good shots — they rank fifth in the nation with a 1.27 Points-Per-Possession in Shot Quality. The Jayhawks' big edge in this game is their offensive rebounding. Kansas ranks 35th in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots — and the Hurricanes allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots, ranking 271st in the nation. Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory by double-digits. They have played three straight Unders — but the Hurricanes have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Miami has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Hurricanes are a potent offensive team that does not turn the ball over while shooting 55.0% inside the arc. They force turnovers on defense which facilitates their transition offense. But this is not a good defensive team in the half-court. Miami ranks 114th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 283rd in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They allow their opponents to make 52.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 299th in the country — and this will likely be the source of their demise against the Jayhawks.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. 25* CBB Elite Eight Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (646) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (645). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884) in the Quarterfinals of the Basketball Classic. THE SITUATION: Portland (19-14) has won two of their last three games with their 94-73 win against New Orleans as a 9-point favorite last Saturday. Southern Utah (22-11) has won four of their last five games with their 82-69 upset win at UTEP as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has the rest advantage with three extra days off than the Thunderbirds — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. This Pilots team has been steadily improving all season under first-year head coach Shantay Legans. The former Eastern Washington coach has one of the youngest rosters in the country — but with a handful of international transfers as well as three important cogs to his Eastern Washington team last year, this team has talent. They also play better away from home as they rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency margin as opposed to their 151st overall ranking in that metric. Portland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Pilots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Southern Utah nailed 58.2% of their shots against UTEP which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They also held the Miners to a 37.5% shooting clip which was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. But the Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won four of their last five contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning four of their last five games. Southern Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have scored 83 points in their four-point upset win against Kent State in the opening game of this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Thunderbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while both those games finished Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 home games after playing two straight Overs. Southern Utah ranks 179th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to a ranking of just 208th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 60 home games when favored including seven of their eleven games at home laying points this season. The strength of this team is protecting their defensive glass as they limit their opponents to pulling down only 22.7% of their missed shots, ranking 16th in the nation. But the Pilots sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense as they only rebound 24.0% of their misses, ranking 299th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the Big Sky Conference regular-season title last year — but, in hindsight, that accomplishment looks like a fortunate by-product of the instability from a season played during COVID. Portland is on the rise — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Basketball Classic Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Portland Pilots (883) plus the points versus the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:29 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kansas (30-6) has won seven straight games after their 79-72 victory against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Providence (30-6) has won six of their last eight games with their 79-51 win against Richmond as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Providence ranks as the luckiest team in the nation according to the deeper metrics of Ken Pomeroy. They have an 11-2 record in games decided by five points or less. While I do think that winning close games is not purely an embodiment of chance, I passed on both of the Friars’ first two games in the NCAA Tournament. The analytics indicate that Providence was fortunate in both contests to win the game. The Spiders’ bubble was perhaps destined to explode after pulling off four straight upset victories. Richmond missed 13 of 21 free throws and 21 of their 22 shots from behind the arc in the 28-point loss to the Friars. But the Spiders did make 20 of 31 (64.5%) of their shots inside the arc which is a concern when now playing the Jayhawks. Playing Kansas is a significant step up in class after getting a favorable draw against South Dakota State and Richmond in the first two rounds of the Big Dance. Providence has been exposed this season in a number of their losses. Creighton scored 85 points in a 27-point victory against them in the Big East Tournament. Marquette scored 88 points in a 32-point win against them. Villanova scored 89 points against them. Virginia beat them by 18 points. The Friars ranked just seventh in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is not a great matchup for them either. Providence led the Big East in getting to the free-throw line — and they led the conference by making 37.6% of their 3-pointers. But the Jayhawks were second in the Big 12 in defensive free throw rate while leading the conference by holding their opponents to just 27.5% shooting from behind the arc. They are not likely to make 51.9% of their shots again tonight as they did against Richmond which was the best shooting mark in their last 15 games. While they ranked 23rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 54th in the nation in that offensive metric when playing away from home. Kansas only made 40.9% of their shots in their victory against the Bluejays which was the lowest shooting mark in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning at least seven games in a row. This Jayhawks team continues to improve on the defensive end of the court. After holding Texas Southern to just 32.8% shooting, they held Creighton to a 35.6% field goal percentage. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make more than 37% of their shots. When playing on the road, the Jayhawks rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offense Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Providence has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Friars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (636) minus the points versus the Providence Friars (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:59 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arizona (33-3) has won eight straight games after their 85-80 win in overtime versus TCU as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (31-5) has won five in a row and 11 of their last 12 with their 68-53 victory against Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Of course, it is true that Houston was underseeded by the NCAA Tournament committee. And not only is head coach Kelvin Sampson one of the best in the business but he has perhaps enjoyed his finest coaching season by recovering from early season injuries to Marcus Passer and Tramon Mark to have his team in the Sweet 16. But the seeding mistakes are corrected by the point spread. And while I know that the Cougars’ efficiency numbers place them as the second-best team in the nation using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, this remains a team that is greater than the sum of its part. Credit Sampson for that — but when they face elite competition, Houston tends to hit their head on the ceiling. After reaching the Final Four last season, the Cougars lost by a 78-59 score to a Baylor team loaded with talent. The previous time they played a team ranked in Pomeroy’s top ten was in 2019 in the Sweet 16 of that Big Dance — and they lost 62-58. And while the American Athletic Conference features good teams but not a ton of NBA talent, the lone exception to that situation has been Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad — and the Tigers handed Houston two of their five losses. Sticking with Pomeroy, the best win the Cougars have this season was on Sunday in their victory against the Illini -- a team with an NBA player in Kofi Cockburn but who has otherwise been inconsistent and disappointing. This Arizona team is not only the most talented group that Houston will have played all season — but they are probably better than that P.J. Washington and Tyler Herro Kentucky team from three years ago who lost in the Elite Eight to Auburn. The Cougars stifled Illinois to just 34.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Sampson out-coached Brad Underwood (and I incorrectly took the Illini to cover). But eventually, coaches cannot outscheme talent — and this Arizona team is seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Also note that while Houston ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that number drops to 33rd in the nation when they play on the road where they allow almost 10 more points per 100 possessions (based on adjusted numbers). And while the Cougars have covered the point spread in five straight games and nine of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games. Arizona only made 45.6% of their shots against the Horned Frogs which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They made only 5 of their 27 shots (18.5%) from behind the arc. Point guard Kerr Kriisa struggled in his return to the court after not playing in their opening-round win against Wright State — he missed nine of his ten shots from behind the arc. But he did play 27 minutes and have a positive +/- number while quarterbacking the team. Furthermore, the Wildcats held TCU to just 35.1% shooting after limiting the Raiders to 34.8% shooting in the opening round of this tournament. Arizona got a scare — but that experience should sharpen them for this showdown. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games (including their last four this season) after not making at least 20% of their shots from 3-point range in their last game. TCU dominated Arizona in the offensive glass by pulling down 20 boards — that kept the Horned Frogs in the game. Houston is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — but the Wildcats have a size edge. The Cougars’ success getting second-chance opportunities speaks to their schemes and ambition to get offensive rebounds rather than NBA talent. Memphis’ size gave Houston problems — and I expect Arizona’s side edge to do the same with head coach Tommy Lloyd having a few days to work on this concern. The Wildcats beat one of the tallest teams in the nation in USC by 20 and nine points respectively this year. And Lloyd can play some very tall lineups by giving more minutes to the 7’0 Oumar Ballo along with regulars in the 6’11 Azuolas Tubelis and the 7’1 Christian Koloko. Arizona has been more effective playing away from home where they rank fifth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as compared to their ranking of 11th in the country in that metric when playing at home. They have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road when playing their third game in seven days. They have covered the point spread 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE:  Houston allows only 59.0 Points-Per-Game this season — but Arizona has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. 25* CBB Thursday Television Game of the Year with the Arizona Wildcats (624) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (623). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:09 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (283) is on a four-game winning streak after outlasting Memphis by an 82-78 score as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas (27-8) has won eight of their last ten games after their 53-48 victory against New Mexico State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Gonzaga got a scare against a talented Tigers’ team as they had to rally from a double-digit halftime deficit to advance to the Sweet 16. There were times in both that game and their opening-round victory against Georgia State where Drew Timme simply took over. He scored 57 points while grabbing 27 rebounds in the two games last week. Memphis was ranked in the top ten in a few power rankings since February — Gonzaga beat one of the best teams in the country that was playing much better when finally healthy. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory there they did not cover the point spread. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Gonzaga has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored at least 81 points in their last four games since their loss to Saint Mary’s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in four straight games. Gonzaga is the best scoring team in the nation — they lead in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency along with their effective field goal percentage of 59.3% and their 61.0% shooting clip inside the arc. They are also second in the country by averaging only 14.6 seconds per possession — and their fast pace will make it easier for them to cover a point spread in the 10-point range. The Bulldogs also sport the ninth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.0%. Arkansas made only 27.5% of their shots in their victory against the Aggies which is why they did not cover the 6.5-point spread despite holding New Mexico State to 48 points. This lack of scoring punch is a big problem — they are only making 38.7% of their shots in their last five games while not making more than 43.4% of their shots over that span which is why they are scoring just 69.0 PPG during that span. In theory, the Razorbacks are at their most dangerous if J.D. Notae can put them on his back. In practice as of late, the senior guard is slumping. He has not scored more than 19 points in four postseason games starting with the SEC Tournament. He has made only 25 of his last 88 shots (31.8%) in his last six contests. And he has not made more than two shots from behind the arc since February 19th. Furthermore, after collecting nine personal fouls in the first two rounds of the tournament, he is at risk of drawing fouls against the Bulldogs — and head coach Eric Musselman is dogmatic about not keeping a player on the floor before halftime if he collects two personal fouls in the first half. Arkansas has a short bench that gets into trouble if Notae and Jaylin Williams are not playing together at the same time. If the Razorbacks fall behind, they are not likely to shoot themselves back in the game because they only make 30.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 314th in the nation. The Arkansas formula for success is forcing turnovers — they rank 58th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions — and getting to the free-throw line where they rank 15th in the country in free throw rate. But the Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation defensive free throw rate -- and they are 29th in the country by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. The Razorbacks may be too small to hang with Gonzaga as well — they rank 209th in team size while the Bulldogs are seventh in that metric. Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the Big Dance.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will engage in the pace Gonzaga wants to play — they rank 45th in the nation by averaging 16.4 seconds per possession while ranking 52nd in the country with their opponents ranking 17.0 seconds per possession. Look for Gonzaga to pull away and cover the point spread in this one. 10* CBB Arkansas-Gonzaga CBS-TV Special with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (628) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). THE SITUATION: Detroit (19-53) has lost six of their last seven games with their 119-115 upset loss to Portland as a 10-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta (36-36) comes off a 117-111 win in New York last night against the Knicks as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit may be eliminated from the playoff race in the Eastern Conference — but they have been playing better basketball as of late with the continued development of Cade Cunningham. The number one pick in the 2021 NBA draft had a loss start to the season after a late start to training camp after a delay in signing in his contract. Some injuries in the fall then impacted his adjustment to the challenge of the NBA — but the former Oklahoma State star is finding his groove. Cunningham is scoring 22.4 Points-Per-Game this month while pulling down 7.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and dishing out 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. Their loss to the Trail Blazers was their second-straight game and third of their last four that was decided by four points or less — so this team has usually been competitive in their losses. The Pistons made only 42.4% of their shots on Monday which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. But Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games in March. Atlanta has been consistently inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played without a day of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road when playing their second game in back-to-back days. Atlanta will play this game undermanned with John Collins out with a foot injury and Lou Williams likely not playing because of personal reasons. The Hawks stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit won the last meeting between these two teams on March 7th by a 113-110 score in overtime as a 7.5-point home underdog. Cunningham starred in that game by scoring 28 points for the Pistons in the win while adding 10 rebounds. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings against Detroit. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (546) plus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612) in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (19-16) has won two in a row and five of their last six contests with their 70-68 victory against Dayton in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Xavier (20-13) has won three of their last four games after their 72-56 victory against Florida as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt beat the Flyers despite only making 37.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. The Commodores have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Vanderbilt ranks ninth in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and they are 38th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have wins against Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU who all made the NCAA Tournament. Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Xavier held the Gators to just 32.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 24 games. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Xavier ranked just sixth in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.6% was 10th in the conference. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Xavier may be without their second-leading scorer Paul Scruggs who injured his knee in the game against Florida. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Game of the Year on the Vanderbilt Commodores (611) plus the point versus the Xavier Musketeers (612). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (44-27) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 138-119 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Chicago (42-29) ended their three-game losing streak with a 113-99 win against Toronto as a 4-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee allowed the Timberwolves to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Bucks should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. Chicago made 48.9% of their shots in their victory against the Raptors yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also held Toronto to 44.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Bulls are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be without Khris Middleton tonight as he nurses an ankle injury — but the Bulls are undermanned in this contest as well. Lonzo Ball remains out and Zach LaVine is questionable with a knee injury. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Month is on Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (533) and the Houston Rockets (534). THE SITUATION: Washington (30-40) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 127-119 win against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (17-54) has lost five games in a row with their 122-98 loss to Memphis as a 12.5-point underdog yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wizards’ losing streak likely played them out of a spot in the postseason — and their play on defense has illustrated their loss of ambition. Washington allowed the Lakers to make 52.7% of their shots which was the seventh time in their last eight games where they allowed their opponent to make at least 50% of their shots. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. The Over is 14-3-1 in the Wizards’ last 18 games after a win — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Houston only made 43.0% of their shots against the Grizzlies which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten contests. The Rockies have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on their home court. The Over is 21-10-1 in Houston’s last 32 games after a point spread loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. They stay at home where the Over is 13-6-1 in their last 20 games at home — and the Over is 17-8-1 in their last 26 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and Washington has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. 25* NBA Monday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (533) and the Houston Rockets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas (22-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 81-73 victory against Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. Purdue (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 78-56 victory against Yale as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: In this battle of elite defense versus elite offense, I give the decided edge to the Texas defense. First-year head coach Chris Beard’s “no middle” schemes are aggressive in attacking the ball in the post to force perimeter or bad-angle side looks to the basket. His Texas Tech teams were outstanding in coaxing their opponents into taking bad shots. The Longhorns team he has assembled in Austin has warmed to his scheme as they rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and I expect Beard’s bunch to play their best defense of the season in the NCAA Tournament. The challenge is stiff against this Boilermakers team that ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Purdue’s strength is in the interior with their twin towers of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. But Texas ranks in the top-20 in defense at the rim and in the top-10 in post-up defense — so they should have success in getting Purdue to rely on their outside shooting. The Boilermakers still have an outstanding player maker and scorer in Jaden Ivey — but that is where the Longhorns’ Courtney Ramey enters the picture. Ramey is an outstanding defender who stymied Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji in two regular-season contests. Not only did Agbaji endure his two fewest-shot attempt games against Texas but he only had one field goal in the final regular-season game with Ramey hounding him. Texas’ issues have been on the other end of the court — but they were impressive against a red hot Virginia Tech team on Friday. The Longhorns scored at a 1.19 Points-Per-Possession rate while making 10 shots from behind the arc. Texas may prove to be a better offensive team than their numbers suggest now that they are outside the Big 12 competition that boasts stout defensive clubs like Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU. The Longhorns had failed to cover the point spread in four straight games before beating the Hokies (and six of seven) — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Purdue held Yale to just a 36.5% shooting percentage in their win on Friday — that was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. But the Boilermakers are not a great defensive team as they rank 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This is the weak link for them in this contest. Purdue is outside the top-100 in protecting the rim — and the Longhorns are seventh in the nation in shot attempts at the rim. Texas has struggled to score baskets against teams who force turnovers — but that is not the Boilermakers who rank 346th in the nation by forcing turnovers in just 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Additionally, the potent Purdue offense is not quite as dynamic when playing away from West Lafayette. While the Boilermakers lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they drop to fifth in the country when playing on the road. That’s still pretty good — but while they make 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc at home, that mark drops to a 37.1% clip when playing away from home. Purdue is 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while Purdue had gone seven straight games without covering the point spread before playing Yale, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games when favored. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on the neutral court as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in tournament settings including three of their four tourney games this season under Beard. 25* CBB Round of 32 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (819) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas (26-8) has won two of their last three games with their 75-71 victory against Vermont as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. New Mexico State (27-6) won their fourth straight game with their 70-63 upset win against Connecticut as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS MINUS THE POINTS: New Mexico State nailed 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc against the Huskies to trigger that upset victory — that was the best shooting mark from 3-point range all season. History is not likely to repeat itself tonight given that this Aggies team only makes 33.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 173rd in the nation. New Mexico State has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they may be due for an emotional letdown now. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight contests. New Mexico State held UConn to just 22 first-half points after limiting Abilene Christian to just 21 first-half points in the WAC Tournament Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. This Aggies’ team is solid and consistent — but they do not have the characteristics to produce variable events that can overcome the talent gap they will face tonight (unless they make 65% of their 3-pointers again — the 3-point shot is the great equalizer which can be very frustrating for us, in the short-term). The strength of this team is their rebounding — and they will impede the Razorbacks’ ambitions for second-chance points. But while New Mexico State is 41st in the nation by pulling down 33% of their misses, Arkansas holds their opponents to rebounding only 25.5% of their missed shots. The Aggies defense was much better at home in Las Cruces where they ranked 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they plummet to just 126th ranking in that metric when playing on the road. New Mexico State is much too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions, ranking 309th in the nation. Away from home, it is even worse as they lose possession 21.2% of the time. These bigger underdogs are more likely to pull upsets and cover point spreads when they can slow the pace of the game. The Aggies’ turnover problem works against this ambition — and the Razorbacks want to push the pace as they average 70.6 possessions per game, ranking 28th in the nation. Arkansas is a rock-solid -- ranking 20th in the nation at KenPom while registering wins against Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky while sweeping all three against LSU. The Razorbacks rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. New Mexico State scores most of their points inside the arc — but Arkansas ranks 47th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.5% shooting on their 2-point shots with that mark lowering to a 45.2% clip against SEC opponents. The Razorbacks also rank 18th in the nation in free throw rate — and they make 75.5% of their freebies so they should pull away late. This team’s biggest problem is they foul too much — but the Aggies were 11th in the WAC by making only 66.2% of their shots at the charity stripe. They should build off the momentum of their win on Thursday as they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first time New Mexico State is playing in the second round of the Big Dance in their last 12 appearances in this tournament. They have still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Round of 32 Blowout Game of the Year is on the Arkansas Razorbacks (786) minus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:50 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (24-7) limps into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after their 69-63 upset loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. Colgate (23-11) has won 15 games in a row after their 74-58 victory against Navy as a 7-point favorite to claim the Patriot League Tournament title back on March 9th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin has been upset in two straight games — after previously riding a five-game winning streak. An ankle injury to Johnny Davis in their regular-season finale setback to Nebraska played a big role in those losses. Davis has not been at 100% — but I am betting (literally) that the week off will have him in better shape for this one tonight. And the Badgers are still the Badgers — a solid team with a reliable system under head coach Greg Gard. What potentially makes this group special is Davis is an All-American talent. Critics point to Wisconsin’s 12-2 record in games decided by five points or less to suggest that the Badgers are overrated. These observers are confusing seed value with point spread value. If you are going to invoke that the Ken Pomeroy metrics indicate that the Badgers were the seventh luckiest team in the nation, you might want to also mention that his same metrics predict Wisconsin as a 7-point winner in this one. So, the line is not off (unless you think a 0.5 to 1.0 difference is offering an actionable edge — I don’t). But I take the Pomeroy analytics with a grain or two of salt because they do not account for home/road splits. In another power rankings system I use, while the Badgers rank 31st in the nation overall, they rise to 14th in the country when evaluating play on the road or neutral courts. Wisconsin thrives away from home because their overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 33rd in the country rises to a ranking of the 13th when evaluating road and neutral court play only. After only making 36.7% of their shots against Sparty last week — the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games — they should hit more shots tonight. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row by six points or less. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Colgate covered the point spread in all three of their Patriot League Tournament games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering three in a row as a favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three games in a row. The Raiders have become the cream of the crop in the Patriot League with a 54-12 mark in conference play in the last three seasons. But their most challenging contests this season were against St. John’s and Vermont which Pomeroy ranks as the 59th and 56th best teams in the country. Colgate lost by 18 points to the Red Storm and by 10 points to the Catamounts. By the way, Pomeroy ranks Wisconsin as the 32nd best team in the nation ever after their luck-tainted analytics. The Raiders are the prototype School Yard Bully whose style helps them bully lesser opponents before they cower in fear against stiffer competition. They don’t force turnovers (16.2%, 297th) or crash the glass (26.5%, 276th). Plan A to pull an upset is to nail their 3s. They shoot from behind the arc in 42% of their shot attempts — and they do nail 40% of them. But, while making 41.4% of their bombs when playing in their familiar gym, their 3-point shooting drops to 38.9% when away from home. That is still a good mark — but it is moving away from elite — and now they are facing a Badgers’ defense predicated on stopping 3-point shooting. Wisconsin ranks 59th in the country in limiting shots from behind the arc — and their opponents make just 32.3% of these shots. Their opponents generate just 27.8% of their points against Wisconsin from behind the arc, the 299th lowest mark in the country. Gard’s teams make it tough to beat the Badgers with a barrage of 3-pointers — and this Colgate team lacks a Plan B if Plan A fails. Finally, the Raiders’ play on defense is below average. They rank 198th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 283rd in the country in that metric when they play away from home (and this highlights my biggest disagreement with the Pomeroy/Vegas point spread projection). Even worse, Colgate ranks 202nd in defending ball screens and they struggle against isolation — and these offensive tactics are the bread and butter of this Wisconsin team with Davis.

FINAL TAKE: Colgate has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Patriot League. Wisconsin is 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 games in the Big Dance — and playing down the street in Milwaukee sure doesn’t hurt. 25* CBB Round of 64 Game of the Year is on the Wisconsin Badgers (762) minus the points versus the Colgate Raiders (761). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (24-9) was eliminated in the West Coast Conference Tournament in an 81-71 loss to Gonzaga as a 14-point underdog on March 7th. Murray State (30-2) has won 20 straight games after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament with a 71-67 victory against Morehead State as a 7.5-point favorite on March 5th. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DONS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should be rested and ready for this contest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a conference loss. The Dons are in a great situation against the Racers — but the initial challenge in assessing this game is determining the extent of the impact of them being without their 6’9 starting center Yauhen Massalski who was declared out tonight with a knee injury. For starters, San Francisco was without him for the game against Gonzaga — and that was the closest margin of victory for the number one ranked Bulldogs all season. Head coach Todd Golden has another reliable big man getting minutes in 6’9 Patrick Tape. Golden desperately needed size for this year’s team so he brought in both Massalski from San Diego and Tape from Duke. Tape was a three-year starter at Columbia where he scored 11.3 Points-Per-Game and pulled down 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game before drawing the attention of Mike Krzyzewski, which is not too shabby. Massalski is the better offensive player — but Tape has been in the rotation all season and is capable and experienced. The cogs to the Dons’ offense remain guards Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. The scoring loss from Massalski’s absence should be covered by the emerging wing Julian Rishwain. The former Boston College transfer has scored at least 13 points in four of his last five games — and he netted 20 points against Gonzaga. Golden gets the most of his team’s talent by deploying analytics — this is a team that takes 44.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation or they look for shots near the basket. The defense ranks 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 44th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Dons do a solid job of generating additional scoring opportunities as they rank in the top-150 in both forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding. What is intriguing about San Francisco is that while they rank 21st in the nation in one of the power ranking systems I use, they rise to 13th best in the country when playing away from home on neutral courts and true road environments using those metrics. They rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road while holding their opponents to 27.8% shooting from behind the arc, ranking seventh in the nation. This package helps explain why the Dons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in tournament settings. After dominating the regular season and conference tournament, the bubble may be ready to burst for Murray State as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a win. Furthermore, the Racers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after winning at least five games in a row. I avoided betting against this team during the Ohio Valley Conference season for good reason — but I have noted that only two of their 30 victories were against teams that made the Big Dance. Murray State beat UT-Chattanooga — and their victory against Memphis was when the Tigers were imploding while playing undermanned. This is a young roster that has been untested when compared to the Dons who are a veteran team who played in a very competitive West Coast Conference. The Racers have great analytics — but we need to take them with a grain of salt given the teams they played. And San Francisco matches up well. Murray State ranks 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding — but the Dons are 33rd in the country by holding their opponents to just a 23.8% defensive rebounding rate. The Racers rank 28th in the nation in forcing turnovers — but San Fran only turned the ball over in 15.4% of their possessions in conference play. And I know Murray State ranks 25th in the country by holding their opponents to just a 30.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — but let’s dig deeper. The Racers rank only 116th in the country in allowing open 3s and they are 118th in the nation in opponents' shots at either the rim or behind the arc — so they may be due a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to opponent 3-point conversion rates. Murray State also only makes 69.2% of their free throws, ranking 267th in the nation — and we watched Notre Dame almost give away their game with Rutgers last night from misses at the charity stripe. Most importantly, the Racers put up their best numbers at home where they ranked 19th in the nation according to the power rankings system referenced earlier. But their ranking drops to 61st in the nation when they are playing away from home with their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at 74th and their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 52nd. They make 44.3% of their shots away from home which generates 71.5 PPG which is 7.8 PPG below their season average. Tellingly, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court when the Total is in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: We are getting point spread value in this game with the public already disrespecting the Dons because they were on the wrong side of the bubble for many NCAA Tournament projection systems — and now add on the injury to Massalski. Injuries tend to be overestimated — especially in the short-term — vis-a-vis point spread aspirations. San Fran has talent and depth still that will be motivated to step up in his absence. I like Murray State — and I wish they were playing as an underdog against a bloated power conference foe. Instead, they face another mid-major upstart — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. 25* CBB Round of 64 Underdog of the Year with the San Francisco Dons (731) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696) in the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (22-10) enters the Big Dance after losing in their first game in the ACC Tournament to Virginia by an 87-80 score in a pick ‘em matchup last Thursday. Rutgers (18-13) lost their opening game in the Big Ten after getting a double-bye into the quarterfinals in an 87-74 loss to Iowa as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Notre Dame has been the more consistent team this season — and their style of play is better situated to pull-out single-elimination contests. Head coach Mike Brey’s team should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Despite the early loss in the ACC Tournament, the Irish come into this game nailing 49.3% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 79.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have held these last five opponents to just 42.4% shooting from the field. Brey’s teams are usually efficient on the offensive end of the court. This Notre Dame team ranks 30th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to 29th in the country when they are playing away from South Bend. The Irish play at a slow pace but get the most out of their possessions — they are 28th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 15.5% of their possessions. They nail their 3s — they rank 18th in the nation by making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc with that mark rising to a 39.6% clip in conference play. Their defense is solid with them doing a few things quite well. They limit their opponents to pulling down just 24.1% of their missed shots, ranking 39th in the nation. They have the 22nd lowest opponent free throw rate in the country. They were second in the ACC by holding their opponents to just a 29.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc. Overall, the Fighting Irish were second in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while ranking third with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. Some may quibble with their resume — their best victory was against a Kentucky team still finding their identity in December. They have a 4-9 record in their 13 contests against Q1 and Q2 teams. But they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Rutgers befuddles some observers because of their inconsistency this season. They went through a stretch in mid-February where they upset four-ranked teams in a row in Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Yet they got upset by DePaul, UMass, and Lafayette (on their home court). I am not as puzzled by Rutgers — they play a high-floor but low-ceiling style of play that is much more effective when playing at home. They have a go-to scorer in Ron Harper, Jr. and they rank 42nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UConn won a National Championship with Kemba Walker with a star player and great defense. But that Huskies team did several other things pretty — like crash the glass. These Scarlet Knights don’t. They rank outside the top-100 in 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and free-throw rate. Plan-A is to make their shots while playing great defense. There is no Plan-B since they don’t create additional scoring possessions or steal points by making 3s or even make freebies at the charity stripe. They are a jump-shooting team — and these are the teams that go to die in the Big Dance. They rank 33rd in the nation in most mid-range jumpers — yet they rank in just 218th in the nation in making these shots. Big Ten teams usually play man-to-man defense — but they played zone against this team and Rutgers only scored at a .858 Points-Per-Possession rate against zone defense which was in the lowest-24th percentile. Now here comes this Irish team that plays plenty of zone defense to compensate for their lack of size and short bench. This is a bad matchup for the Knights. They rank 108th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — making only 33.6% of their 3-pointers and 49.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 181st and 203rd in the nation respectively. And their best defensive efforts have been on their home court. While they ranked 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, that defensive plummets to a 149th in the country slot when they are playing away from home. On the road, opponents make 34.4% of their 3-pointers and 52.4% of their 2-pointers, ranking 199th and 227th in the nation. Notre Dame should hit enough 3s to pull away in this game.

FINAL TAKE: Rutgers has the impressive five wins against Q1A teams this season — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (695) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (696). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (543) and the Utah Jazz (544). THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-27) lost their sixth game in their last eight with their 112-103 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah (42-26) has lost two of their last three games with their 117-111 upset loss to Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. DeMar DeRozan has cooled off as of late with his shooting as he is making only 40% of his shots in his last eight games. Zach LaVine is not 100% with his knee. But while Chicago still misses the defensive presence of Lonzo Ball, they did get back Alex Caruso who gives them a boost on that end of the court. The Bulls stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. The Under is also 13-5-1 in Chicago’s last 19 games on the road as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. The Jazz will be without their second-leading scorer tonight with Bojan Bogdanovic out with a wrist injury. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games when favored. Utah has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on October 30th when the Bulls upset the Jazz at the United Center by a 107-99 score. That game finished well below the 219 point total — the Under is now 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (543) and the Utah Jazz (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the First Four NCAA Tournament game between the Indiana Hoosiers (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). THE SITUATION: Indiana (20-13) won their first two games in the Big Ten Conference Tournament before losing to Iowa by an 80-77 score as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Wyoming (25-8) comes off a 68-61 loss to Boise State as a 3-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers made 47.6% of their shots in their last-second heartbreaking loss to the Hawkeyes. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. First-year head coach Mike Woodson has his alma-mater playing outstanding half-court defense. Indiana led the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that rank 24th in the nation in that metric. It starts from their interior defense as are seventh in the country by holding their opponents to just 43.4% shooting inside the arc. Woodson has two outstanding defensive players inside in the 6’9 Trayce Jackson-Davis and the 6’8 Race Thompson — and they will present problems against the Cowboys’ offense. The “Post Up Pokes” run their offense inside-out with Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike capable of scoring when posting up but happy to pass to an open teammate if they are double-teamed. This is a game where Woodson’s chops as a long-time NBA head coach will help with a few defensive maneuvers to disrupt the flow of the Wyoming attack. Indiana dealt with several injuries during the regular season so their numbers do not adequately represent the team playing on the floor tonight. The Hoosiers’ defensive presence improved for the Big Ten tournament with the return of Trey Galloway and Rob Phinisee — and Jordan Geronimo is expected to be available after getting injured in the Big Ten Tournament. But the Indiana offense is not dynamic as it relies on not turning the ball over and getting to the free-throw line to reach their 71.5 Points-Per-Game mark. They only pull down 27.0% of their missed shots, ranking 213th in the nation and they force turnovers in 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 229th in the country. They only make 44.6% of their shots away from Bloomington, so if their shots are not falling, the offense can stagnate. But Indiana holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting which translates into 65.9 PPG to keep them competitive. Wyoming made 42.6% of their shots against the Broncos in a losing effort — and that was the best shooting effort in their last five games. That contest finished above the 128.5 point total — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Wyoming is making only 38.4% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. While the Cowboys rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that ranking plummets to 124th in the nation when they are playing on the road. They make only 42.9% of their shots away from home which results in 67.0 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. But the Pokes’ defense does tighten up when away from Laramie. Wyoming’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is 162dn in the nation when playing at home — but they improve to 43rd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting and 65.7 PPG away from home. The Cowboys defend the perimeter well as they hold their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 32nd in the nation. Their offensive profile is like Indiana in that they bypass creating extra scoring opportunities — and their offensive identity is predicated on protecting the basketball and getting to the free-throw line. Wyoming thrives with their inside scoring as they make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 32nd in the nation — but they may not have played a team with a better interior defense this season than what they will face against this Hoosiers team.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to a slow-paced rock fight. Wyoming has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral court. Indiana has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when favored on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the First Four NCAA Tournament game between the Indiana Hoosiers (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253) in the second leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Ajax has won three straight matches with their 3-2 victory against Cambuur on Friday. Benfica is unbeaten in their last seven matches with their 1-1 draw at home against Vizela on Saturday. These teams settled for a 2-2 draw in the first leg of the Round of 16 on February 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE AJAX MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: I wrestled between the side play on the Sons of Gods or take the Over — and I concluded that an Ajax 2-0/3-0 victory is more likely this afternoon than a 3-2 Ajax win. Benfica may be without striker Roman Yaremchuk in this match as he is dealing with an illness. Ajax is going to score goals in this contest. They have scored three goals in their last three contests while generating at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each contest. The Sons of Gods are on a seven-match winning streak when playing at home with 31 goals and just two goals conceded (both on Friday — so manager Erik Ten Hag will be looking to shore things up on that end of the pitch). Ajax has scored at least three goals in each of those last seven home contests. This team was just one of three teams in the Group Stage of the Champions League to win all six of their matches. They scored the second-most goals in the Group Stage — and they also generated the second-best expected goals differential to Bayern Munich. In their three home matches in the Group Stage, they won all three contests by more than one goal (to cover a -1.5 goal-line spread). Benfica will surrender their share of goals as they have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Eagles are in second place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga which is not considered one of the elite leagues in Europe. And this is a team that can get rolled. In their three matches in the Champions League against Bayern Munich and Ajax, they conceded 10.24 expected goals (xGA). In their road match against Bayern Munich in the Group Stage, they got smashed by a 5-2 score. Benfica has held their last four opponents to 1.15 xGA per 90 minutes — but all four of those sides were on the bottom half of the Primeira Liga table. The Eagles scoring drops off on the road — while they generated 1.43 xG in their four Champions League home matches, that number drops to 1.13 xG per 90 minutes in their three Group Stage matches on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ajax won the xG battle by a 2.01 to 1.86 mark in the first leg. An own goal by Sebastian Haller gave Benfica life on their home pitch in that match. The Sons of Gods were on target in eight of their 11 shots in that match — their most efficient performance so far in the Champions League this season. Yaremchuck scored Benfica’s only goal — so his absence would hurt. Bayern Munich dominated RB Salzburg last week at home in that second leg after settling for a surprising draw on the road in the first leg — look for a similar game script in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with the Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652) in the Championship Game of the Big Ten Tournament. THE SITUATION: Iowa (25-9) has won two straight games and seven of their last eight after their 84-74 victory against Rutgers as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (27-6) has won two straight and five of their last seven with their 69-61 victory against Penn State yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hawkeyes’ offense is clicking — they are scoring making 49.2% of their shots in their last five games which are generating 86.4 Points-Per-Game. Iowa ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they lead the nation in that metric when playing on the road. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They are also 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games played on a neutral court. Purdue held the Nittany Lions to just 40.7% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Boilermakers are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Boilermakers have not covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not covering the point spread in at least two games in a row. Purdue leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but there is a drop-off when are away from West Lafayette as they fall to fourth in the country in that metric when playing on the road. The Boilermakers are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team that is winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue swept the two regular-season games against Iowa after beating them by an 83-73 score on January 27th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 opportunities for same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big Ten Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (651) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636) in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (24-9) reached the finals of this tournament with their 42-36 upset win against North Texas as a 4-point underdog yesterday. UAB (26-7) joined them in the Championship Game with their 102-98 victory in overtime against Middle Tennessee State as a 7-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Ford Center in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech ground out a slugfest yesterday afternoon with both teams weary after playing the previous night. The Bulldogs held the Mean Green to just 24.1% shooting in the win. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last contest. Louisiana Tech has won six of their last eight games — and they have covered the point spread in three straight contests. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Bulldogs are effective on the defensive end of the court where they rank second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc. This team also ranks second in the conference by making 52.1% of their shots inside the arc when on the road — and the Blazers allow their conference opponents to make 55.4% of their 2-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 12th in Conference USA. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral court. UAB is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. The Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least four games in a row. And while UAB has scored at least 80 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in at least two straight games. The Blazers thrive in protecting their defensive glass — they hold their Conference USA opponents to rebounding just 24.1% of their missed shots. But this will not be much of a net advantage tonight against this Bulldogs team that sacrifices offensive rebounding for getting back on defense to defend against potential fast breaks. UAB also is 11th in the conference in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. The Blazers had a short turnaround yesterday afternoon after playing Thursday night -- so the extra overtime they endured will not help them tonight.

FINAL TAKE: UAB swept the two regular-season games this season after beating the Bulldogs by an 87-74 sore on March 5th — but Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge when they allowed at least 75 points in the loss. 25* CBB Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (635) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620) in the Semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Memphis (20-9) has won five straight games and 11 of their last 12 after their 85-69 victory against Central Florida as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. SMU (23-7) has won three in a row and five of their last six after their 83-58 win against Tulsa as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Penny Hardaway bickered with the media earlier this season when his team was struggling — and he was adamant that his group should not be judged too harshly until they got back to full health. Cut to March — and the Tigers are playing some of the best basketball in the country. Over their last ten games, Memphis ranks third in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Hardaway has his team generate extra scoring possessions by crashing the offensive glass and forcing turnovers on defense. The Tigers force turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 35th in the nation. They pull down 37.4% of their missed shots, ranking fifth in the country — and that mark has risen to a 38.2% rebounding clip in their last ten games which is the top mark in the nation during that span. But what makes this Memphis so tough to beat now is that are taking better advantage of their scoring opportunities. The Tigers are nailing 37.8% of their shots behind the arc in their last ten games. In their last five games, they are nailing 49.3% of their shots which is generating 78.4 Points-Per-Game. They are holding their opponents to 39.2% shooting in their last five games which is translating into 63.0 PPG. Memphis ranks 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 13th in the country in that metric in their last ten games. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 after a point spread victory. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in four of their five games. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. SMU held the Golden Hurricane to just 33.3% shooting yesterday which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. For the second straight game, the Mustangs made 13 shots from 3-point land — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after making at least ten shots from downtown in two straight games. SMU is also 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tigers have held their last ten opponents to just 29.9% shooting from 3-point range. SMU makes 38.4% of their 3-pointers when playing at home — but their percentage drops to 34.7% when playing away from home. The Mustangs are also vulnerable against teams who crash the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.0% of their missed shots when playing on the road, ranking 318th in the nation. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games in a tournament setting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: SMU upset Memphis in their two regular-season games — and their 73-57 victory against them on February 20th was the only loss for the Tigers since January 20th. Memphis has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (619) minus the points versus SMU (620). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874) in the Semifinals of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Portland State (14-16) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 77-65 upset win against Southern Utah as a 6-point underdog yesterday. Northern Colorado (19-14) won their third game in their last four with their 68-67 victory against Eastern Washington as a 4-point favorite last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Idaho Central Arena in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: I think we catching a much-improved team that is still beneath the radar of the betting market. First-year head coach Jase Coburn assembled the proverbial Island of Misfit Toys of castoffs from other conferences — but with six former Division I players coming in, this Portland State team has tons of talent for a Big Sky team. After a rocky start, the Vikings are putting it together late with 10 wins in their last 13 games. The biggest improvement has been on defense where they have held their last five opponents to 40.3% shooting which is resulting in 67.4 Points-Per-Game which is -4.3 PPG below their season average. Portland State is also making 45.5% of their shots over that span, a few notches above their 43.3% field goal percentage for the season. They were feeling it last night by nailing 51.9% of their shots at the Idaho Central Arena — so they will be comfortable playing in this gym. They also held Southern Utah to just 36.8% shooting. This good play should carry over as Portland State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games playing away from home when playing without a day of rest. The Vikings will deploy one of the most effective full-court presses in the nation tonight. They rank 15th in the nation by forcing 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions — and they rank second in the country in their last ten games by forcing turnovers in 26.8% of their opponent’s possessions. This ability to force turnovers travels — Portland State ranks 11th in the nation in the net improvement they see in their play when on the road. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog including seven of these last nine occasions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral court. Northern Colorado only made 11 of their 33 shots from inside the arc yesterday — but they bailed themselves out by nailing 13 of their 31 shots from 3-point range for a 41.9% clip. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they made at least 13 shots from behind the arc. Northern Colorado was also very fortunate that Eastern Washington made only 43.3% of their shots which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last ten games. The Bears can shoot the basketball — but they can’t defend. They rank 331st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they were tenth in the defensively-challenged Big Sky Conference. They allow their conference opponents to make 39.3% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the Big Sky. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% from the field which has resulted in 79.8 PPG. Bad defensive teams make unreliable favorites. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when laying the points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament games.

FINAL TAKE: Portland State swept both regular-season games against the Bears — beating them by a 79-76 score on January 31st before holding them off again three days later in a 106-99 victory. Northern Colorado does not match up well against the Vikings since Portland State’s subpar shooting gets better scoring opportunities against the Bears. The Vikings forego protecting their defensive glass by looking for fast-break scoring opportunities — and Northern Colorado does not crash their offensive glass well as they only pull down 21.4% of their missed shots, ranking 344th in the nation. And the Portland State press was effective in both those earlier meetings as they forced 16 and 19 turnovers accounting for 21.9 and 23.7% of the Bears’ possessions. The Vikings are playing their best basketball of the season and will love the fast pace Northern Colorado embraces. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Portland State Vikings (873) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (874). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744) in the Quarterfinals of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (21-9) won their sixth straight game with their 57-53 victory against Georgetown last night as a 9.5-point favorite. Connecticut (22-8) has won six of their last seven with their 75-68 victory against DePaul as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall survived a feisty Hoyas team last night that was motivated to pull off the upset of their season to offer some redemption from an otherwise disappointing year. The Pirates were flat to start the game as they found themselves trailing by 10 points with four minutes left in the first half while only scoring 24 points in the first 20 minutes of the game. But now with a game under their belt at Madison Square Garden, look for Seton Hall to play much better against a good Huskies team. The Pirates only made 38.6% of their shots last night which was the worst shooting effort in their last five games. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Georgetown to just 30.6% shooting as they continued their torrid pace on the defensive end of the court. Seton Hall ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 20th in the country with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5%. They have held their last five opponents to 39.0% shooting which is resulting in just 61.4 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Pirates limit their opponents to making only 44.8% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 12th lowest in the nation. They also pull down 34.4% of their missed shots on the road in Big East play, the top mark in the conference. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a dog. Connecticut held the Blue Demons to just 39.4% shooting over the weekend which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests. They out-rebounded DePaul by a 49-31 margin in the win — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 boards. The Huskies are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. UConn has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least four of their last five contests. The Huskies have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Sometimes when a team is not covering spreads, it is because they are underachieving relative to their potential. However, point spread losing streaks can also indicate that a team is overrated relative to market expectations — and I think that is the case with UConn. The Huskies only make 48.4% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 230th in the nation. In Big East play, that shooting mark with their 2-pointers drops to 47.7%, the eighth-best in the conference. And when playing on the road, UConn is 318th in the country in putting their opponents on the free-throw line — and Seton Hall makes 76% of their freebies, ranking 39th in the country. The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings this season — but it will be Seton Hall with the extra motivation of revenge after losing at UConn by a 70-65 score on February 16th. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Seton Hall Pirates (743) plus the points versus the Connecticut Huskies (744). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794) in the Quarterfinals of the Big West Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (16-10) has won five in a row after their 67-60 victory against Hawai’i as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. UC-Irvine (15-9) has won two of their last three games after their 66-61 victory at Cal-State Bakersfield as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Tournament with momentum. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning at least three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after winning five or six of their last seven games. UC-Santa Barbara beat the Rainbow Warriors despite allowing them to make 50% of their shots in what was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last 12 games. And while they made 53.1% of their shots, that was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. The Gauchos have nailed at least 52.3% of their shots in seven of their last nine games. This is a potent scoring team that ranks 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%. They are 19th in the nation with a 55.4% shooting percentage inside the arc. They also rank 17th in the country in getting to the free-throw line. UC-Santa Barbara maintains their scoring prowess when playing away from home. They led the Big West with an effective field goal percentage of 54.5% when playing away from home in conference play. They also led the conference by making 40.4% of their shots from behind the arc when on the road. The Gauchos have a 5-7 record on the road — but they outscored those opponents. If their shots are not falling, they create additional scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers in 21.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play, the second-best mark in the Big West. The Anteaters are loose with the basketball as they rank 317th in the nation in turnover rate — and they were ninth in the Big West by turning the ball over in 22.2% of their possessions. On the road, UC-Irvine’s turnover rate rose to a 23% clip in conference play. UC-Santa Barbara comes into this game rested — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road when playing with five or six days of rest. Additionally, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament games. UC-Irvine comes into this tournament as the winner in nine of their last eleven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight of ten. Their victory against the Roadrunners finished Over the 126.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Anteaters play great half-court defense — but they do struggle to score points, especially on the road. They have a 6-8 record on the road while getting outscored by -3.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank ninth in the Big West in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road in conference play — and they make only 41.2% of their shots away from him which translates into just 60.6 PPG. They only make 30.9% of their shots from 3-point range on the road in conference play, ranking ninth in the conference. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine won the only meeting between these two teams on February 3rd by a 53-52 score. The Anteaters did turn the ball over 20 times in that — representing 32.8% of their possessions. The Gauchos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities for same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (793) minus the point(s) versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D11-L8) had their three-game snapped in a 4-0 loss at Aston Villa on Saturday. Newcastle (W6-D10-L10) has won two matches in a row after their 2-1 win against Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints had been unbeaten in seven straight matches in all competitions — before laying an egg against the Villans — with their only two blemishes being very respectable draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s high-press has been effective even against those two sides that are now in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. Southampton ranks fourth in the English Premier League in pressure success rate — and this is a vulnerability for the Magpies as they have the third-worst success rate in the league breaking pressure. The Saints play their best at home at St. James Park where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with four straight victories. They thrive against teams in the bottom half of the league at home as well. They have won five of their seven EPL games at home against bottom-half clubs (with two draws) with three straight victories. They have allowed more than 1.0 expected goals (xG) just once in those seven matches — and they have generated at least 1.0 xG in six of those seven matches with the lone exception being in a match where they played with ten men due to a red card. In their last three matches at home against a bottom-half side, they have generated at least 2.2 xG. Newcastle is unbeaten in their last seven matches — but they were fortunate against Brighton as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.89-1.86 xG mark. Frankly, the Magpies have been fortunate to be getting the results they have. In their last six matches which finished with 11 versus 11 players, they have outscored those opponents by 5 goals despite having a net expected goals margin of +2.4. They have scored nine times in those six matches despite generating 7.6 xG.  And they have been taking advantage of the lesser teams in the league as six of their last seven opponents have been in 11th place or worse on the EPL table. They have lost six of their 12 league matches on the road where they rank third-to-last in xG. They have generated less than 1.0 xG in seven of their last eight matches that finished at 11-versus-11.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at Newcastle on August 28th. Southampton dominated the expected goals in that match by a 3.53-1.23 xG margin — and they generated four Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate). Look for the Saints to earn the win on their home pitch. 25* EPL Thursday Afternoon Match of the Month with Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At (now) 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgetown Hoyas (673) and the Seton Hall (674) in the first round of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgetown (6-24) limps into the Big East Tournament on a 20-game losing streak after their 97-75 loss at Xavier as a 13-point underdog on Saturday. Seton Hall (20-9) has won five games in a row with their 65-60 upset win at Creighton as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Patrick Ewing’s first priority for the Hoyas in this tournament is to tighten things up on defense after they allowed the Pirates to make 54.7% of their shots. That was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Georgetown has played 4 straight Unders after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The Hoyas have also played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The problems against Xavier started early as they went into halftime with a 54-30 deficit. Georgetown has played 8 straight Unders after trailing by at least 15 points at half-time of their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 45 points in the first half in their last game. While the Hoyas should play better on defense, they still cannot shoot the basketball. Georgetown ranks 319th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.5%. They make only 43.7% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 346th in the country. Their shooting is even worse away from home where they rank 328th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. The Hoyas make only 41.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road, ranking 357th in the nation — and their road 2-point shooting in the conference was even worse with a 40.9% mark. The Hoyas have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Seton Hall has held their last five opponents to 39.4% shooting which has resulted in those foes scoring only 63.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Pirates have played two straight Unders — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Seton Hall only makes 40.5% of their shots on the road which generates 70.8 PPG which is -3.4 PPG below their season average. The Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140s. Additionally, Seton Hall has played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates swept the Hoyas this season after beating them by a 73-68 score on March 2nd. Georgetown has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgetown Hoyas (673) and the Seton Hall (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622) in the Summit League Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (23-9) has won three straight games and nine of their last ten contests with their 92-72 victory against Oral Roberts as a 1-point favorite in the Semifinals of this tournament last night. South Dakota State (29-4) is on a 20-game winning streak after their 83-60 win against South Dakota as a 9-point favorite in the semifinals nightcap last night. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Fallas, South Dakota.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BISON PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota State was feeling it last night with their stroke as they nailed 60.3% of their shots in the win against the Golden Eagles. While I do not expect them to match that performance tonight, it is safe to say that they are comfortable shooting in this gym. The Bison have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a double-digit win against a Summit League opponent. North Dakota State thrives when playing half-court defense. They lead the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.9%. The Bison lead the Summit in both 3-point and 2-point defense. They hold their conference opponents to 31.7% shooting from behind the mark — and that mark lowers to a 24.9% clip when playing away from home. They also limit their Summit League foes to just 48.1% shooting inside the arc — and that mark drops further to a 46.8% clip when playing away from home. North Dakota State has a 7-2 record away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against Summit League opponents. South Dakota State played one of their best games of the season last night. Their 59.6% field goal percentage was the best shooting mark in their last five contests — and by holding the Coyotes to just 44.6% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last four contests. South Dakota State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last game by 20 or more points. And while the Jackrabbits have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. South Dakota State leads the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.6%. But this team is vulnerable against teams who can shoot the basketball because of their play on defense. The Jackrabbits rank 303rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.7% ranks 290th in the country fueled by their opponents nailing 37.4% from behind the arc, ranking 307th in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: South Dakota State swept both games against North Dakota State this season — but both victories were by just four points. The Jackrabbits have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court when favored — and the Bison have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota State Bison (621) plus the points versus the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (622). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890) in the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Saint Mary’s (24-6) is on a four-game winning streak after upsetting Gonzaga by a 67-57 score as a 10.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Santa Clara (21-11) has won three straight games after their 91-67 victory as an 8.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of this tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Saint Mary’s comes off their biggest win all season — and their biggest victory since 2019 when they upset Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship Game to clinch their last berth into the NCAA Tournament. An emotional letdown is likely for the Gaels. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a West Coast Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 10 or more points under head coach Randy Bennett. And while Saint Mary’s has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. This did hold the Bulldogs to just 36.7% shooting after holding San Diego to 36.5% shooting in a 60-46 victory two days prior — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 37% from the field. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by 10 or more points. The other troubling aspect for Saint Mary’s tonight is the nine days off since they last played — they could be rusty in this contest, especially when playing on an unfamiliar neutral court. The Gaels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least seven days between games. While Saint Mary’s was a perfect 16-0 on their home court, they were only 8-6 in their 14 games away from home where they only made 44.4% of their shots. The Broncos are vulnerable to teams who can make 3s — but the Gaels only make 33.3% of their 3-pointers when playing away from home, ranking 195th in the nation. Saint Mary’s is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they are 1-3-1 ATS In their last 5 games played on a neutral court. The Gaels led the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions — but Santa Clara protects the basketball as they led the conference by only turning the ball over in 15.1% of their conference possessions played away from home. The Broncos have won eight of their last ten games and 14 of their last 19 contests after overcoming some key absences early in the season. Their 6’9 star forward, Josip Vrankic, missed early games after a case of mono, and center Jaden Bediako missed some time in December leaving the team without depth upfront. But Santa Clara is rolling now with their last six losses all being against the big three in the conference in Gonzaga, San Francisco, and this Saint Mary’s team along with Boise State — all four of these teams rank 27 or better in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and will all be in the big dance. The Broncos should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They made 53.4% of their shots against the Pilots — although that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Santa Clara is fourth in the nation by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers — and their shooting proficiency improves to 42.1% from 3-point range when playing on the road this season, ranking the third-best in the country. The Gaels are vulnerable in this regard as they rank 190th in the nation away from home by allowing their opponents to make 34.4% of their shots from behind the arc. The Broncos are efficient inside the arc as well as they make 54.3% of their 2-pointers, ranking 34th in the nation. And Santa Clara’s interior defense is good — they rank 59th in the nation by holding their opponents to 46.9% shooting inside the arc. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: After losing by just eight points at Saint Mary’s in January, the Broncos upset the Gaels when they played on February 8th by a 77-72 score as a 3-point underdog. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities for revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with the Santa Clara Broncos (889) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (890). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837) in the Semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (19-13) won their third game in their last four with their 73-60 victory against Georgia Southern as a 5.5-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Georgia State (16-10) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 65-62 win against Arkansas State as a 4-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt — and after a slow 6-9 start to the season with some COVID issues likely impacting those results, the Panthers are on a 10-1 run making them a favorite in many bettors eyes. But I think they are overvalued in this spot against the reigning conference champions — and the Mountaineers match up very well against them. After holding UL-Lafayette to 58 points in their last regular-season game two Fridays ago, the Panthers held the RedWolves to just 35.6% shooting yesterday in what was the best defensive effort in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. Georgia State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games when playing their second game in eight days, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Georgia State is a dangerous team because they generate extra scoring opportunities. They lead the Sun Belt Conference by rebounding 35.7% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their opponent’s possessions. But Appalachian State presents a feisty opponent in both of these areas. The Mountaineers are third in the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding and they rank 76th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down just 25.8% of their missed shots. Appalachian State also leads the conference and is 31st in the nation by only turning the ball over in 15.5% of their possessions — and that mark improves to just a 14.3% turnover rate when playing on the road against conference opponents. The problem for Georgia State is that they need to generate these additional scoring opportunities because they can’t shoot. The Panthers rank 347th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.6%. They only make 30.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 300th in the country — and their 43.7% shooting percentage inside the arc ranks 346th in the nation. Georgia State is vulnerable against teams who can make 3-pointers. They are 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.4% of their shots from behind the arc — and that mark rises to a rough 39.3% clip from 3-point land from their opponents when they are playing away from home, ranking 341st in the country. Appalachian State can make 3s — they rank fourth in the Sun Belt with a 34.6% mark from downtown. In their last ten games, the Mountaineers were making 35.6% of their 3-pointers — and away from Boone, they made 35.1% of their 3-pointers in conference play. They are led by senior guard Adrian Delph who scores 17.2 Points-Per-Game while nailing 39.0% of his 3-pointers. Appalachian State does not make things easy on their opponent either as they put their opponents on the free-throw line at the 11th lowest rate in the nation. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing the day before. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against conference opponents. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season meetings but it will be the Mountaineers with revenge on their minds after losing the last encounter with the Panthers by a 58-49 score despite playing that game in Boone. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (838) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (837). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). THE SITUATION: Cal-Davis (12-9) has lost two of their last three games after a 68-65 loss at Long Beach State as a 5.5-point underdog on Thursday. CS-Fullerton (17-10) has lost two in a row with their 75-72 upset loss to UC-Riverside as a 2-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: Cal-Davis has been resilient after setbacks as they are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread. The Aggies play outstanding interior defense — they are 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.6% clip inside the arc. They stay on the road where they are second in the Big West Conference by making 36.8% of their shots from behind the arc. They should have success from distance against this Titans team that allows their guests to nail 37.5% of their 3-points, the 315th highest mark on a home court in the nation. Cal-Davis is 5-4 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 41% shooting from the field. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as an underdog. The Aggies are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 range. Furthermore, Cal-Davis is 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog — and they are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams winning at least 60% of their game. CS-Fullerton allowed UC-Riverside to make 55.3% of their shots in their upset loss. The Titans have allowed their last four opponents to make at least 51.9% of their shots. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Furthermore, CS-Fullerton has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss against a Big West opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by six points or less. The Titans have a 10-2 record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. CS-Fullerton has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Cal-Davis will be looking to avenge a 74-58 loss to CS-Fullerton on January 27th. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities for avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the Cal-Davis Aggies (735) plus the points versus the Cal-State Fullerton Titans (736). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Missouri State (23-9) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 67-58 victory against Valparaiso yesterday as a 10.5-point favorite. Drake (23-9) won their sixth straight game with their 65-52 victory against Southern Illinois as a 3-point favorite in their quarterfinals contest yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINT(S): Missouri State outlasted the Crusaders despite only making 44.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Not only are the Bears the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency but they rank 24th in the nation in that metric. They are 20th in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9%. They might have the two best players in the conference in wing Isiaih Mosley and 6’9 big man Gaige Prim. Together, this inside-out pair combine to average 36.3 points per game. The Bears are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a point spread loss. Missouri State has not covered the point spread in two straight games and four of their last five contest. The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Missouri State has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — including covering the point spread in eight of these last ten circumstances. This is a fundamentally sound team that ranks 24th in the nation in turnover rate on offense while limiting their opponents to rebounding just 23.6% of their missed shots, ranking 34th in the nation. On the road, they are 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 16th in the nation respectively by nailing 38.1% of their 3-pointers and 54.8% of their shots inside the arc when playing away from home. They also lead the conference by holding their opponents to 47.1% shooting inside the arc — and they rank 15th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just a 45.3% mark with their 2-point shots. These characteristics have helped the Bears cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when favored. The Tigers are vulnerable against teams who can make 3s — but the Bulldogs are last in the Missouri Valley Conference by making only 30.8% of their 3-pointers. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover them in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Bulldogs have seen their last two games combine for 122 or fewer points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games where no more than 125 combined points were scored. Drake is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They are also 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri State swept the Bulldogs in their two meetings this season after beating them on the road by a 66-62 score as a 3.5-point underdog on February 9th. Drake has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss this season — and they have failed all 3 opportunities to avenge an upset loss this year. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Missouri State Bears (768) minus the point(s) versus the Drake Bulldogs (767). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (635) and the Fordham Rams (636). THE SITUATION: George Washington (12-16) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 98-93 victory in triple overtime as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Fordham (13-15) has lost two of their last three games with their 81-73 loss at Massachusetts as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colonials' three-overtime game earlier this week was tied at 59 after regulation — so that contest was going way Under the 137 point total. George Washington made 47.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They have just the ninth-best offense in the Atlantic 10 Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they drop to 12th in the conference in that metric when playing on the road. GW has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Colonials have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last contest. George Washington has the 12th worst defense in the Atlantic 10 in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they do improve to seventh best in that statistic when playing on the road in conference play. The Colonials have played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. George Washington has also played 6 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Fordham allowed UMass to make 47.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 36-16-1 in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 27-11-1 in their last 39 games after a point spread loss. Fordham ranks just 13th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting which results in only 63.6 Points-Per-Game. The Under is a decisive 42-16-1 in the Rams’ last 59 home games when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as the favorite. They have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Fordham will be looking to avenge a 64-55 loss at George Washington as a 1-point underdog on January 30th. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (635) and the Fordham Rams (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). THE SITUATION: Butler (13-17) lost their fourth game in a row with their 64-56 loss at Marquette as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Villanova (22-7) won their sixth game in their last seven with a 76-74 victory against Providence as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: It is Senior Day for Butler this afternoon -- and hosting the Wildcats gives them an opportunity to end their regular season on a high note before the Big East Tournament starts next week. Head coach LaVall Jordan’s team is better than their record with eight of their 13 losses in conference play being by seven points or less. They should play well this afternoon. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Butler has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after losing at least three in a row. They return home where they are 9-6 this season — but they have impressive victories against Marquette, Creighton, and Oklahoma. They hold their opponents to just 41.8% shooting which translates into 64.5 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 straight games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Villanova may not be completely dialed-in for this game with zero chance to claim the Big East regular-season title. They are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won 15 of their last 18 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 contests. They are just 10-6 away from home this season where they boast a 12-1 record. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Butler will have extra motivation to redeem themselves from an 82-42 loss at Villanova on January 16th in what was their worst game of the season. They shot 30.8% from the field in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 59.6% of their shots which included them nailing 12 of their 19 shots (63.2%) from behind the arc. History is not likely to repeat itself since Villanova makes 41.3% of their 3s at home but sees that number plummet to a 33.1% clip on the road, ranking 185th in the nation. Butler has held their opponents to just a 29% clip from 3-point range since that embarrassing loss — and they hold their guests to just 28.1% shooting from behind the arc when playing at home, ranking 24th best in the country. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation with Villanova averaging 63.0 possessions per game (345th slowest in the nation) and Butler just behind them at 63.5 possessions per game (341st in the nation). Finally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered 11 of their last 14 home games when avenging a loss on the road and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Big East Underdog of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (606) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (605). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862) in the Semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Morehead State (22-10) has won two of their last three games after their 73-56 win as an 8-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of this tournament yesterday. Belmont (24-6) has won 11 of their last 12 games with their 87-67 victory against Tennessee State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles advanced in this tournament yesterday despite making only 39.1% of their shots in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Morehead State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win by 15 or more points. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Eagles play stout defense which keeps them in this game. They rank second in the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they top the conference in that metric when playing away from home. They are led by 6’10 sophomore John Broome who is sixth in the nation in block rate. Facing Belmont is always a challenge since they lead the nation by making 61.4% of their shots inside the arc. Morehead State leads the Ohio Valley with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.7% when playing away from home. Broome helps them play very tough interior defense: they rank 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 45.7% shooting percentage inside the arc — and they led the conference with their opponents only making 43.8% of their 2-pointers. In their two meetings this season, the Bruins did not shoot better than 45.9% inside the arc in either game — and they converted only 31 of these 72 shots for an underwhelming 43.1% mark with their 2-pointers. On the other end of the court, Morehead State is dangerous from 3-point land with four players in their rotation who all nail at least 35% of their shots from behind the arc. They are second in the conference with a 35.0% shooting percentage from distance. The Bruins’ perimeter defense is an area of vulnerability as they allow their opponents to make 34.8% of their shots in conference play, ranking 10th in the Ohio Valley. Belmont played their best defensive game in their last five by holding Tennessee State to just 37.5% shooting. And their 56.2% field goal percentage was their best mark in their last four games and second-best in their last eight contests. But the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Belmont can struggle against opponents who are athletic and offer length to combat their movement and shooting on offense. They lack a Plan B if their interior shots are not falling. They only make 31.7% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home, ranking 246th in the nation. And they only pull down 23.1% of their missed shots away from home, ranking 310th in the country. They do force turnovers in 21.0% of their opponent's possessions, the 50th best mark in the country — but this will be the third time the Eagles have faced their pressure. In their 83-74 victory at home against the Bruins on January 20th, Morehead State only turned the ball over seven times representing just 10.6% of their possessions. They did turn the ball over 16 times in the rematch which helps explain why Belmont was able to eke out a 48-47 victory at home as a 9-point favorite. The Bruins did not cover the point spread in their four meetings against Morehead State and Murray State — the two most athletic teams in the conference. Belmont has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games away from home after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Morehead State had a 39-29 lead at the 14:25 minute mark of the second half in their meeting last month before getting outscored in Nashville by a 19-8 rock fight to close out that game. They should be motivated to redeem themselves from that setback — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games when avenging a loss on the road. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Morehead State Eagles (861) plus the points versus the Belmont Bruins (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (773) and the Idaho State Bengals (774). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (18-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 69-53 loss at Montana State as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Idaho State (7-21) has lost three of their last four games with their 73-69 loss at Portland State in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This game between two subpar defensive teams should be higher-scoring tonight. The Thunderbirds have the fourth-best defense in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Big Sky Conference — but they rank 232nd in that metric nationally. Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. They are making a healthy 47.4% of their shots in their last five games — but they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 48.9% from the field. They stay on the road where they are scoring 75.1 PPG while allowing 75.6 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. The Thunderbirds have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. The Over is also 26-10-1 in their last 37 games when favored. Idaho State ranks 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They managed to hold Portland State to just 15 first-half points on Saturday — but they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Bengals have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Idaho State has played four straight Overs — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row. Now after playing those last three games on the road, they return home rehear they see their scoring average rise +6.1 Points-Per-Game to a 70.7 PPG mark. The Bengals have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Idaho State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the first meeting between these two teams by an 86-74 score as a 16.5-point favorite on January 22n. Idaho State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an earlier loss this season to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (773) and the Idaho State Bengals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189) in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (19-9) had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 76-69 loss at the Florida Gulf Coast as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Central Arkansas (11-19) has won two of their last three games with their 74-73 win in a pick ‘em contest against Stetson in the opening round of this tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should respond with a stronger effort tonight as they have covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are a strong defensive team that ranks 97th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 37th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage fueled by a stingy perimeter defense that limits their opponents to 28.9% shooting from behind the arc, the tenth best mark in the country. They also rank 30th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 23.4% of their missed shots. They return home where they are a perfect 14-0 with a net point differential of +20.3 Points-Per-Game. They hold their guests to just 36.5% shooting at home which is translating into only 54.1 PPG. The concern with this Jacksonville team is their shooting — but they are much better at home where they make 49.9% of their shots which is generating 74.4 PPG. The Dolphins are second in the Atlantic Sun by nailing 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play when at home. Jacksonville also does a great job of crashing the glass — they rank 34th in the nation by rebounding 33.6% of their missed shots which that mark rising to a conference-best 34.6% against Atlantic Sun foes. The Dolphins are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games when favored. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by six points or less. Now they go on the road where they are 3-13 this season with a -18.2 PPG net point differential. The Purple Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. They rank 337th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing their opponents to make 55.9% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 348th in the nation. Inexplicably, head coach Anthony Boone has them play at the 20th fastest pace in the nation which is resulting in an average of 72.4 possessions per game, the 12th most in the country. Yet this team does not force turnovers, or crash the glass, or shoot (or make) a bunch of 3s — so the increased pace is not accentuating the things they try to do well. Central Arkansas is 338th in the nation by making only 29.6% of their missed shots. They are 344th in the nation run getting to the free-throw line. The Dolphins should get plenty of fast-break scoring chances in transition which is another reason why I am not as worried about their shooting tonight. Jacksonville outrebounds their opponents by +7.6 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Central Arkansas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 130s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are looking to avenge a 79-59 loss at Jacksonville as an 11.5-point underdog on January 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* CBB Atlantic Sun Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Dolphins (306190) minus the points versus the Central Arkansas Bears (306189). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (717) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (718). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (11-18) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine games after their 84-74 loss to North Carolina as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Wake Forest (22-8) has won two of their last three games with their 99-77 win against Louisville as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Demon Deacons made 58.2% of their shots against the woeful Cardinals which was the best shooting mark in their last 21 games. But I do not consider that an outlier performance as much as it is evidence that this Wake Forest team will expose teams who are vulnerable on the defensive end of the court. The Demon Deacons now shot at least 53.7% from the field in seven of their last twelve games. Expect another higher-scoring game as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after a victory at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Demon Deacons did allow Louisville to make 50.8% of their shots which was the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot at that clip or higher in their last five games. Wake Forest plays at the fastest pace in the ACC — they average 16.8 seconds per possession. Their opponents play at the second-fastest possession in the conference by averaging 17.4 seconds per possession against them. The 69.9 average possessions per game in conference play leads the ACC as well. And when playing at home, the Demon Deacons play at the 25th fastest pace when looking at adjusted numbers (that eliminate garbage time). Wake Forest is 15-2 at home where they make 49.5% of their shots which generates 83.2 Points-Per-Game. They have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. They have also played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. NC State only made 37.9% of their shots in their loss to the Tar Heels on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. But the play of the Wolfpack defense is a bigger concern as the 51.8% shooting clip by North Carolina which was actually the sixth-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight games. NC State ranks 15th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.9% is the 296th worst mark in the nation. The Wolfpack have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while this is their second game since last Wednesday, they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They go back on the road where they are 4-8 with an average combined score of 150.0 points due to allowing 76.2 PPG. While the Wolfpack ranks eighth in the ACC in pace, they get lulled into playing faster on the road where they are playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the conference. NC State has played 35 of their last 51 road games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total in conference play. They have also played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: NC State is losing to avenge a 69-51 loss at home to Wake Forest on February 9th. The Wolfpack have played all 5 of their revenge opportunities this season Over the Total when getting beat by double-digits in their first meeting this season — and both games went Over this season when they were avenging a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. NC State has played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Wake Forest has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as the favorite. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (717) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (20-8) had won four of five games before their 56-49 loss at North Texas as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Old Dominion (12-17) won their second-straight game with their 83-63 win against Florida International as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech should respond with a strong effort tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 50 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. And while the Bulldogs have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Louisiana Tech ranks second in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the conference by holding their opponents to just 45.0% shooting inside the arc. It will be difficult for the Monarchs to score tonight as they only hit 30.1% of their shots from behind the arc, the 320th worst mark in the nation. The Bulldogs return home where they are 12-3 this season with a net point differential of +14.9 Points-Per-Game. Louisiana Tech holds their guests to just 39.5% shooting which translates into 65.8 PPG. They also make 47.4% of their shots at home which is generating 80.7 PPG. This team ranks 62nd in the nation by making 55.1% of their shots inside the arc — and this proficiency should help them pull away in this game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 130s. Louisiana Tech is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Old Dominion comes off one of their best games of the season where they nailed 57.4% of their shots while holding the Golden Panthers to just 40% shooting. But the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a game where they shot at least 57% from the field while holding their opponent to no higher than a 43% field goal percentage. Furthermore, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. Additionally, the Monarchs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. And while this is their third game since Thursday, Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing their third game in seven days. The Monarchs can’t shoot — they rank 286th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. Now after playing their last two games at home, Old Dominion goes back on the road where their effective field goal percentage drops to 44.9%, ranking 306th in the nation. The Monarchs are just 3-13 away from home while making only 41% of their shots which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road against teams winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). THE SITUATION: Charleston (16-13) had their two-game winning streak snapped with an 80-79 loss at Drexel as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Hofstra (20-10) has won seven of their last eight games with their 83-67 victory against William & Mary as an 18-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: Charleston should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games after a loss. And while this is the Cougars’ fourth straight game on the road, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after playing at least two straight games on the road. Head coach Pat Kelsey’s team plays at the second-highest pace in the nation. They also rank 12th in the nation by pulling down 35.3% of their missed shots — and offensive rebounding travels. Charleston is scoring 80.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games on 48.7% shooting. They have a 7-7 record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. Charleston has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last games against teams with a winning record. Hofstra has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after a straight-up win at home against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Hofstra has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They are now 11-2 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Pride have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games when the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored in all situations.

FINAL TAKE: The College of Charleston will be looking to avenge a 76-73 loss at Hofstra as a 2-point underdog on January 27th. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated with revenge. 25* CBB Underdog of the Month with the College of Charleston Cougars (863) plus the points versus the Hofstra Pride (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). THE SITUATION: Dallas (35-25) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 114-109 loss at Utah as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Golden State (43-17) ended their two-game losing streak with a 132-95 win at Portland as a 10-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: The silver lining from Dallas’ loss on Friday was the play of their recent acquisitions in the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 20 points on 8 of 12 shooting and Davis Bertrans nailed five of his eight shots from behind the arc for 17 points. These two players give head coach Jason Kidd the potential for a much-needed scoring punch off the bench to help out Luka Doncic. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Mavericks have been very reliable road warriors against good teams with Doncic — they are 45-20-1 ATS in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last seven games. They also held the Trail Blazers to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. The Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They are also 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a double-digit win. Golden State is undermanned tonight with Klay Thompson out with an illness and Andre Iguodala out with a sore back. They remain without Draymond Green who is recovering from a calf injury. The Warriors’ elite defense drop to 11th in the league since the Green injury. And while the Mavericks rank a surprising fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season under Kidd, Golden State’s offense ranks just 22nd in the league when facing a top-ten defense. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be motivated to avenge an embarrassing 130-92 loss to the Warriors on January 25th. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 opportunities at same-season revenge. Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Golden State. 25* NBA Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (543) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the San Jose Sharks (16). THE SITUATION: Boston (30-17-4) has won three straight games with their 3-2 win at Seattle on Thursday. San Jose (23-22-6) snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory against the New York Islanders on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has been outstanding defense — they are allowing only 2.04 expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes this month. They have held their last five opponents to just 2.2 goals per game. And while they have peppered the opposing goalie with at least 33 shots in three straight games, they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after attempting at least 33 shots in three straight games. They are only scoring 2.6 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests as they continue to be held back with their secondary scoring after their “perfection line” of Patrice Bergeron (who is listed as probable tonight despite an illness), Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak. They continue their road trip where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games on the road. Jeremy Swayman is their goaltender tonight. Swayman has a 2.09 Goals-Against-Average with a .925 save percentage — and he ranks seventh in saves above expectation for goalies with at least 10 games played this season. In his 11 games (10 starts) on the road, Swayman has a 1.59 GAA and a .945 save percentage. Moving forward, the Under is 5-0-1 in Boston’s last 6 games against teams with a losing record. San Jose has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least three goals. The Sharks’ victory against the Islanders was preceded by a 4-3 loss at Anaheim — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. Furthermore, San Jose has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least three goals in two straight games — and they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. The Sharks are missing Erik Karlsson to help out their attack. The defenseman is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury — and his absence exacerbates their lack of scoring punch from their bottom-six forwards. San Jose has a low 1.95 GF per 60 minutes this month — and they are scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game in their last five games. They turn to James Reimer as their goaltender tonight who is having a solid season. Reimer owns a 2.90 GAA with a .913 save percentage — and he has made +2.9 saves above expectation. The Sharks have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning record.

FINAK TAKE: San Jose has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and the Under is 3-1-1 in Boston’s last 5 games against Western Conference foes. The Sharks will be looking to avenge a 4-3 loss to the Bruins on October 24th — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. The Under is also 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams when playing in San Jose. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (15) and the San Jose Sharks (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (21-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-69 upset loss at Clemson as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Louisville (12-15) has lost eight of their last nine games after their 70-63 loss at North Carolina as a 9.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest allowed the Tigers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games and the third-highest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Demon Deacons only made 41.0% of their shots as well which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 16 games. Wake Forest should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Demon Deacons rank second in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.0%. They return home where they have a 14-2 record with a +15.0 net point differential. Wake Forest holds their guests to just a 38.6% field goal percentage which is resulting in 67.2 Points-Per-Game. The Demon Deacons are nailing 49.0% of their shots on their home court which is generating 82.2 PPG. Wake Forest is usually a very good shooting team — they rank 16th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% fueled by a 57.9% shooting clip inside the arc, ranking fourth-best in the country. The Cardinals are vulnerable with their interior defense as they rank ninth in the ACC by allowing their opponents to make 51.6% of their 2-pointers. Louisville ranks 12th in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wake Forest can get into trouble against teams that force turnovers — the Deacons rank second-to-last in the ACC with a 19.9% turnover rate. But the Cardinals also rank second-to-last in the conference by forcing turnovers in only 14.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Wake Forest has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Demon Deacons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Louisville continues their lost season that saw the parting of ways with head coach Chris Mack midseason. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. And while the Cardinals have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are just 4-8 this season. They are making only 40.3% of their shots away from home which is resulting in just 64.6 PPG. Louisville is just eleventh in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 12th in the conference — and their 67.1% free throw rate that is last in the ACC will not help them cover the point spread. The Cardinals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They are also just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be looking to avenge a 73-69 loss to the Cardinals on December 29th. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 opportunities for revenge against their opponent. 25* College Basketball Game of the Month with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (750) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). THE SITUATION: Binghamton (11-14) has lost four of their last five games after a 66-49 loss to Vermont as a 15-point underdog on Wednesday. New Hampshire (13-12) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 83-55 win against the New Jersey Institute of Technology as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Binghamton only made 30.5% of their shots against the Catamounts on Wednesday in what was the worst shooting effort of the season. They should play better this afternoon as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Binghamton has also covered the point spread in 8 straight-road games after a straight-up loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread loss. Their solid play on the defensive end of the court should keep them competitive in this game. The Bearcats are third in the America East Conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their opponents to just a 32.9% shooting clip from behind the arc which is best in the conference — and they also lead the America East with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.2%. They go back on the road where they are 6-6 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games. Additionally, Binghamton has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. New Hampshire made 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the best shooting effort of the season — so I  do expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a conference opponent. New Hampshire has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Bearcats can struggle on defense as they rank only eighth in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are 9-3 at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: New Hampshire won the first meeting between these two teams on February 12th by a 69-60 score in a pick ‘em match-up — but the Bearcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 opportunities this season to avenge a loss at home. 25* CBB America East Underdog of the Year with the Binghamton Bearcats (1001) plus the points versus the New Hampshire Wildcats (1002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (517) and the Los Angeles Lakers (518). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Clippers (30-31) went into the All-Star break winning three of their last four games after their 142-111 win against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite last Thursday. The Los Angeles Lakers (27-31) snapped a three-game losing streak to go into the All-Star break with a 106-101 upset victory against Utah as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have been playing higher scoring games this month with head coach Tyronn Lue relying on Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann to give the team more minutes. Jackson and Mann give the team a boost on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers have a 50.6% field goal percentage in their last five games which has generated 112.2 Points-Per-Game. But that duo is not as effective on the other end of the court. The Clippers may rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating — but they are just 20th in that metric this month. Not surprisingly, the Clippers have played 6 of their last 8 games this month Over the Total. The Over is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This team remains without their big two in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George — and they will be without their recent acquisition from Portland in Norman Powell who is out with a toe injury. Moving forward, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Clippers’ last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Lakers will be without Anthony Davis tonight as he is dealing with an ankle injury. That means more small-ball with LeBron James playing at the five position. The Lakers will likely try to play at a fast pace relying more on Russell Westbrook’s athleticism (with the hope he can finally break out of his “slump” — they are ride-or-die with him now after he was not dealt at the trading deadline). The Lakers went into the break making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games which were generating 112.8 PPG — but also allowed 114.2 PPG in those five contests. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at Crypto.com Arena Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by no more than six points. And in their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Lakers have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, the Lakers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Clippers allow 107.7 PPG this season, the Lakers have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 108 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Against Pacific Division rivals this season, the Lakers are allowing these opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which is resulting in 116.3 PPG. The Lakers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against Pacific Division foes. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two Los Angeles rivals. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (517) and the Los Angeles Lakers (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (18-10) has lost two games in a row after their 55-52 upset loss to Texas State as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. UT-Arlington (11-16) has lost two in a row and five of their last seven after their 59-53 loss at Troy as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: South Alabama has only scored 103 points in their last two games — but they should find the form that has tagged ranked second in the Sun Belt Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and tops in the conference with a 51.9% effective field goal percentage against the Mavericks. UT-Arlington ranks 11th in the Sun Belt Conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage — and they rank 227th in that metric when playing away from home with opponent’s posting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. But they have also covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. South Alabama has played their last two games Under the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. They stay at home where they are 8-3 this season with a +18.9 net points differential. The Jaguars hold their guests to just 57.9 Points-Per-Game. They rank 32nd on their home court with an effective field goal percentage of 56.0% while ranking in the top-74 in the nation in both 3-point shooting and shooting inside the arc. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored. The Jaguars have also covered the pint spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. South Alabama ranks second in the Sun Belt with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.5% — this is a balanced team on both ends of the court. UT-Arlington held the Trojans to host 36.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. UT-Arlington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. The Mavericks have played their last two games Under the Total by only allowing 58 and 59 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -8.6 net point differential. They only make 40.1% of their shots on the road which results in only 63.5 PPG. UT-Arlington struggles with shooting the basketball — they rank 321st in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama will be looking to avenge an 89-87 upset loss to the Mavericks on December 30th as a 2.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 75 points. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the South Alabama Jaguars (892) minus the points versus the UT-Arlington Mavericks (891). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W7-D11-L7) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win against Everton on Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D5-L16) has lost two in a row after their 3-1 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints are playing the best soccer of their season right now as they have reached the top half of the English Premier League table and continue to advance into the deep stages of the FA Cup. Southampton has only lost once in their last 11 matches across all competitions. They recently beat Tottenham and earned impressive draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. The Saints’ attack has averaged 2.18 goals-per-game in their last 11 matches across all competition. Southampton has been effective bottom-feeders as well — they are W4-D2-L0 in their last six matches against teams below them in the EPL table. They have generated 1.67 expected goals-per-game (xG) in those matches — +0.30 xG above their season average — while allowing just 0.67 expected goals per match (xGA). The Saints are also unbeaten in their last nine matches at home at Saint Mary’s Park with nine victories. They are sixth in the league at home in xGA with a mark that is -0.37 xGA below their season average. Norwich City is in last place in the EPL with just 17 points. Since Dean Smith has taken over as manager, the Canaries are last in the league in expected goals scored. They go on the road where they lost eight of their twelve matches — and they are last in the EPL in net expected goals differential. They only average 0.78 xG on the road — so the Saints may register a clean sheet in this match. Norwich City is also winless in their six road matches against teams in the top half of the league. They are allowing nearly 2.6 xGA per match in those contests. The Canaries' last six losses have all been by at least two goals.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton will have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Carrow Road which the Canaries won by a 2-1 score. The Saints did win the xG battle by a 1.1-0.5 mark — and they are in much better form now. 25* EPL Friday USA Network Match of the Month with the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Belmont Bruins (825) and the Murray State Racers (826). THE SITUATION: Belmont (23-5) won their tenth straight game with a 73-62 victory against SIU-Edwardsville as a 22-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (26-2) won their 15th straight game with a 62-60 victory at Tennessee-Martin as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Belmont needs to win this game to put themselves in a position to share the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title. Expected a lower-scoring game between the two best defensive teams in the conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against a conference rival. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Bruins are playing their best basketball of the season — and it has been led by their play on defense. Belmont has held their last five opponents to just 40.4% shooting which has resulted in just 59.2 Points-Per-Game. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Additionally, the Bruins have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Murray State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Racers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Murray State has not allowed more than 62 points in five straight games while holding their last two opponents to 60 or fewer points. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight contests. The Racers are scoring less on offense lately as well. They are shooting 2.9% below their season average in their last five games — and that 45.0% field goal percentage over that span is resulting in -7.3 PPG below their 79.7 PPG scoring average for the season. They return home where they are holding their guests to 38.7% shooting which is resulting in just 63.1 PPG. Murray State has played 8 straight home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 28 of their last 36 games Under the Total with the Total set in the range overall. The Under is also 16-7-1 in the Racers’ last 24 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against winning teams. Murray State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Murray State won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 15th by an 82-60 score as a  6-point underdog in Nashville. The Racers got 36 points in Justice Hill in that game who nailed eight shots from behind the arc in that game. Murray State made 51% of their shots in that contest while making 14 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in that game for a 56% clip. They are not likely to do that again tonight since they make only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play — and their 3-point shooting drops to 29.9% at home in Ohio Valley play. Belmont holds their home hosts in conference play to just a 31.1% shooting mark from 3-point range when playing on the road. The Bruins have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Belmont Bruins (825) and the Murray State Racers (826). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). THE SITUATION: UNC-Asheville (15-12) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in an 84-79 loss to Winthrop as a 2-point underdog. Gardner-Webb (15-11) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-68 victory at Presbyterian as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: UNC-Asheville allowed Winthrop to nail 50.9% of their shots over the weekend in what was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Winthrop made 12 of their 30 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was a surprise when considering that the Bulldogs rank sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 28.5% clip from 3-point range this season. UNC-Asheville is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. And while this is just their second game since Thursday of last week, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their second game in seven days. On the positive side, UNC-Asheville made at least 50% of their shots for their third straight game with their 53.2% clip against the Eagles over the weekend. In their last five games, the Bulldogs are making 48.3% of their shots which has bumped up their scoring average +5.3 Points-Per-Game to a 79.8 PPG mark over that span. This team also ranks 32nd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line where they then make 73.9% of their freebies, ranking in the top-100 in the nation. The Runnin’ Bulldogs rank 278th in the nation in putting opponents on the free-throw line. UNC-Asheville goes on the road where they are 7-6 this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Gardner-Webb has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are no slouches defending the 3-point shot either — they rank seventh in the nation in opponent’s field goal percentage behind the arc. UNC-Asheville is vulnerable to teams who crash the glass — but Gardner Webb ranks only seventh in the conference in offensive rebounding when playing at home. The Runnin’ Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Gardner Webb has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: UNC-Asheville will be motivated to avenge a 61-55 upset loss at home to the Runnin’ Bulldogs as a 1.5-point favorite on January 27th. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big South Game of the Month with the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (306143) plus the points versus the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (306144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (17-6) won their fifth straight game with a 61-44 victory at Fresno State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Boise State (21-6) has won four of their last five games with their 68-57 win against Utah State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: After a narrow one-point loss at Colorado State, San Diego State has gotten on a roll by winning their last four games by double-digits. A discovered scoring touch has triggered the upsurge in play for head coach Brian Dutcher’s team. They are shooting 49.0% from the field in their last five games. They had shot 62.5% and 51.7% from the field in their previous two games before posting a 47.9% field goal percentage in their win against the Bulldogs. The Aztecs should continue their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road against a Mountain West Conference rival. San Diego State leads the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate — and they are very tough to beat if they are hitting their shots. This Aztecs team boasts the top-ranked defensive in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the nation — and this defense travels. San Diego State holds their home hosts to just a 39.7% field goal percentage which translates into only 60.7 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 road games with the Total set in the 120s. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boise State played their best defensive game in their last eight contests by holding the Aggies to just 43.4% shooting on Saturday. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row after conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. Boise State’s defense has taken a step back as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.0% of their shots. This is concerning because this Broncos team cannot shoot. Boise State ranks 349th in the country by making only 64.5% of their free throws — a troubling characteristic for a team expected to be in a close game. And they only make 32.4% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on their home court, ranking 246th in the nation. One of the power rankings systems I use lists the Broncos as the 28th best team in the nation — but those analytics drop them to 60th in the country when exclusively evaluating teams playing on their home court. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games. The Broncos lack depth with head coach Leon Rice relying mostly on seven players — but that seventh player, Name Smith, is questionable tonight with an undisclosed injury.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met on January 22nd with Boise State winning by a 42-37 score as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Aztecs were rusty coming off a two-week hiatus due to COVID outbreaks — and they only shot 28.1% from the field while missing 15 of their 19 shots from behind the arc. San Diego State has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (645) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217) in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Stage. THE SITUATION: Villarreal enters this match coming off a 4-1 win at Granada in La Liga action on Saturday. Juventus settled for a 1-1 draw with Turin in Serie A competition on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE VILLARREAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Villarreal is in their best form all season entering this match. Since November 30th, the Yellow Submarine are W10-D1-L3 in their last 14 matches with 45 goals and 13 goals conceded. In their last four matches (all in La Liga), they are unbeaten with three victories — scoring nine times and conceding just once. Manager Unai Emery’s style is to craft strong defensive teams that engage in a conservative offensive regimen predicated on the counter-attack. But these Yellow Submarines have thrived in scoring goals as of late. They generated 5.12 expected goals (xG) in their victory over Granada on Saturday which was the highest xG mark for any club playing in one of the top-five European professional leagues this season. They are getting great contributions up top from left wing Arnault Danjuma who scored a hat trick in that victory. Villarreal has arguably been the best team in La Liga since December 1st. They hold the best net expected goal differential of +1.47 (xGD) over that span. The emerging Yellow Submarine attack has been the difference-maker as they have generated 2.52 xG since December 1st which is the top mark in La Liga over that span — far above Real Madrid’s 2.20 xG mark. Villarreal’s defensive identity has remained during this time as they have allowed only eight goals in those last 11 La Liga contests, the fourth-lowest in that span. The Yellow Submarine press has been more effective this season. After ranking eighth and tenth in allowing the fewest successive passes in a row in league play (a measure of defensive pressure), they have catapulted to being second-best in La Liga in that metric. Playing at home at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal is unbeaten in their last six matches at home with 17 goals scored and just four conceded in those contests. Juventus is unbeaten in their last 12 matches in Serie A but they were shaky in their most recent match against Turin. They managed only 0.82 xG but conceded 0.93 expected goals allowed (xGA) against a side that is just 10th in the Italian top-flight (in a professional league not as strong as La Liga). The Old Lady is ravaged with injuries right now: Federico Cheese, Federico Bernardeschi, and Paulo Dybala are missing from their attack and they are without Giorgio Chellini and Daniele Rugani in their backline. The club did sign Dusan Vlahovic in the January transfer window to shore up the attack — but the 21-year-old’s stats with Fiorentina are propped up by five goals on penalty kicks. He has scored 19 times for Fiorentina and now Juventus this season — but he only has 9.2 non-penalty kick expected goals this year. In their last nine matches in Serie A, the Old Lady has not generated more than 1.5 xG in any of those contests. Their non-penalty kick xG in Serie of 1.17 is just 11th best — and their +0.38 net xGD of +0.38 is far below what Villarreal is generating despite playing in an inferior league to La Liga.

FINAL TAKE: Juventus has a -2.9 net xGD against the top-seven sides in Serie A plus their two Group Stage matches in the Champions League against Chelsea. They got waxed by a 4-0 score at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in their Group Stage contest — when they were healthier than they are now. Villarreal has tended to fold against elite competition but they have recently registered draws with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid while beating Real Bettis by a 2-0 score who are in third place in La Liga. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). THE SITUATION: Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-13) has lost three games in a row after their 70-63 loss at South Carolina State as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina-Central (15-11) has won four games in a row with their 84-79 win against Delaware State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Maryland-Eastern Shore only made 37.6% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Hawks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. And while they have lost four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing four or five of their last six contests. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that is still just 3-7 in conference play — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. The Eagles are very vulnerable in this department — they rank 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while this is their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Eagles are considered one of the favorites to win the MEAC despite COVID limiting them to just 13 practices all season last year. The Eagles are not a great defensive team by conference standards. They rank seventh in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking remains seventh of the eight teams in the conference in that m metric when playing at home. North Carolina-Central has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks (306109) plus the points versus the North Carolina-Central Eagles (306110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (15-9) looks to rebound from a 70-52 loss at Houston on Thursday as a 13.5-point underdog. East Carolina (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 65-57 victory at South Florida as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Central Florida could not get anything going on the offensive end of the court against the Cougars. Their 28.3% field goal percentage in that game was the lowest of the season. Johnny Dawkins’ team should shoot much better this afternoon. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not making at least 33% of their shots in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring at least 55 points in their last game. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss. Central Florida has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. And while this is the Knights’ third game since Monday this week, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing their third game in seven days. They return home where they are 11-3 this season. Dawkins’ team thrives on the defensive end of the court where they hold their guests to just a 40.9% field goal percentage which results in only 61.9 Points-Per-Game. UCF makes a modest 45.2% of their shots at home — so they should make more baskets than they did against the Cougars. But what makes this Knights’ team so dangerous is that they do a good job in generating additional scoring opportunities. Central Florida pulls down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 68th in the nation. The Knights also lead the American Athletic Conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions — and that turnover rate improves to a 22.7% clip when playing at home. The Pirates are loose with the basketball — they rank seventh in the conference by turning the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions. Central Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. East Carolina held South Florida to just 34.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 23 games. The Pirates had lost six in a row before winning two of their last three — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while East Carolina has not scored more than 30 points in the first half in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they are just 3-8 this season. The Pirates struggle to score -- and it starts with their shooting inside the arc where they rank 322nd in the nation by making only 45.7% of their 2-pointers. On the road, East Carolina has a 40.4% field goal percentage — and they rank 341st in the country with an effective field goal percentage of 43.7% on the road. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 130s. East Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates will be motivated to avenge a 92-85 loss in overtime at home to the Knights on January 18th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 85 points. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Central Florida Knights (832) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (831). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (12-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 64-55 upset loss to St. Francis-NY as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Long Island (12-13) has won three games in a row with their 81-63 win at St. Francis-PA as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Mount St. Mary’s allowed St. Francis-NY to make 47.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 games. The Mountaineers have the top defense in the Northeast Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They have held their last two opponents to 29 and 27 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half of their last two games. They stay at home where they have a +10.4 net point differential while holding their guests to just a 41.5% shooting percentage and 61.2 Points-Per-Game. Mount St. Mary’s have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. On their home court, the Mountaineers pull down 37.6% of their missed shots, the 13th highest mark in the nation. Mount St. Mary’s also leads the Northeast Conference by making 35.6% of their shots — and they face a Sharks team that allows their home hosts to mane 36.7% of their shots in conference play. Long Island held St. Francis-PA to just a 32.9% shooting percentage which was the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season and the lowest mark in 16 games. The Sharks also made 47.1% of their shots which was the best mark in their last 13 games. But Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit win on the road. The Sharks have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Long Island won their previous game by a 99-88 score against Bryant but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Sharks stay on the road where they are just 3-12 this season with a -9.5 net point differential. They only make 40.4% of their shots away from home. Long Island has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Mount St. Mary’s will be looking to avenge a 74-57 loss at Long Island on January 6th as a 5-point underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Game of the Year with the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (306034) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Long Island Sharks (306033). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 70-61 loss to Iona as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Fairfield (12-14) has lost four of their last six games after their 74-67 upset loss to Manhattan as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Stags could not take care of business against an undermanned Jaspers squad earlier this week — and now they continue their jam-packed schedule this week by playing for the fourth time since Saturday. As it is, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 6 games when playing for the second time in three days. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. They do stay at home tonight — but they are just 5-8 on their home court. And while a power ratings analytics model I use ranks them 208th in the nation, that system drops them to 269th in the country when measuring home court performance. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 120s. Playing every other day for the fourth time tonight is challenging on the shooting legs — and this Stags’ team is very dependent on making baskets since they do not do much to create more scoring chances. Fairfield ranks ninth in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference by rebounding only 25.3% of their missed shots — and they only force turnovers in 16.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking ninth in the conference. Furthermore, Fairfield’s defense is middling — they rank only seventh in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Saint Peter’s comes in rested with this being just their second game since last Friday — and this is their first game on the road since January 30th. Led by KC Ndefo, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year in the conference, the Peacocks have the best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s usually has a strong defense under head coach Shaheen Holloway — and this season is no exception. The Peacocks lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They also lead the conference in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45.1% inside the arc and 29.0% from 3-point land, both the best marks in the MAAC. Saint Peter’s also ranks second in the conference by pulling down 31.4% of their missed shots — and they lead the MAAC by nailing 38.3% of their 3-pointers. And this team is 26th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line — and the Stags are 230th in opponent’s free throw rate. There is a lot to like about this Peacocks team moving forward. They have held their last two opponents to 30 and 26 first-half points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when an underdog getting up to six points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Peacocks under Holloway are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (877) plus the point(s) versus the Fairfield Stags (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). THE SITUATION: DePaul (12-10) has lost two games in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to Butler as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Creighton (16-8) won their third straight game with their 86-77 victory against Georgetown as an 11-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLEU DEMONS MINUS THE POINT(S): DePaul may have lost six of their last eight games but they are still playing pretty good basketball this month. They lost to Providence in overtime over the weekend before losing by one possession to the Bulldogs. They upset Xavier on the road last week. They only made 41.3% of their shots against Butler which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. This DePaul team is better than their record — they played seven games without their leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty who was out with an injury. He is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game after his 20-point effort on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are 9-6 on their home court this season with impressive wins against Seton Hall and the upset machine that is Rutgers. They hold their guests to just 41.7% shooting from the field when playing at home. DePaul has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 140s. The Blue Demons have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Creighton made 53.8% of their shots in their victory against the Hoyas — but that was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. The Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three of their last four games. This is not a good shooting team this season — they only make 31.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 290th in the nation. They are also too loose with the basketball as they are turning the ball over in 21.3% of their possessions, ranking 324th in the nation, and it is has been worse in conference play as they are last in the Big East by turning the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions. Creighton is 7-5 on the road but they are getting outscored by -2.0 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: DePaul will be motivated to avenge a 60-47 loss at Creighton where they blew a double-digit lead in the second half by scoring only two points over a 12-minute span. But the Blue Demons played that game without Freeman-Liberty who is now back with the team — and they missed 14 of their 17 shots from 3-point land. Back at home, DePaul makes a solid 34.1% of their shots from distance. They get to play the role of spoiler tonight against a Creighton team firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. 25* CBB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the DePaul Blue Demons (850) minus the point(s) versus the Creighton Bluejays (849). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Evansville Purple Aces (703) and the Drake Bulldogs (704). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 68-59 loss at Bradley as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Evansville (6-18) has lost two straight and five of their last six games after their 69-62 loss at Southern Illinois as an 11.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs only made 35.7% of their shots on Saturday while missing 10 of their 13 shots from behind the arc in the loss. Drake has played 6 straight Overs after not making more than three shots from behind 3-point range in their last game. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They return home where they are scoring +3.2 Points-Per-Game above their season average of 74.7 PPG. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference by pulling down 31.1% of their shots in conference play on their home court. Drake has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 120s. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Evansville has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a loss on the road to a conference rival.  And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 6 straight road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is the Purple Ace’s third game since Thursday — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. They stay on the road where they are allowing +5.4 more PPG than their season defensive average with home hosts nailing 49.4% of their shots which is generating 74.2 PPG. Evansville ranks 332nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9% away from home with those teams making 38% of their 3-pointers and 55.3% of their shots inside the arc, both those marks rank 316th in the nation. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Purple Aces’ last 9 road games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games against teams scoring at least 60% of their games at home. Evansville has also played 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against winning teams.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Drake’s narrow 60-59 win at Evansville on January 8th. The Bulldogs have allowed their eight opponents to score at least 66 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs when favored at home by 12.5 to 18 points. Evansville has played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 15.5 to 18 points. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Evansville Purple Aces (703) and the Drake Bulldogs (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg of the Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League knockout stage. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Villarreal on Saturday in La Liga action. Paris Saint-Germain last played on Friday in a 1-0 victory at home against Rennes in a Ligue 1 domestic match.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Expect the respective offensive attacks to be on display in this heavyweight showdown between European powers who both reached the semifinals of this tournament last year. Star power will be all over the pitch in this match — but this talent has been masking less-than-elite tactics on the defensive side of the pitch. PSG defensive numbers have improved lately — and they have only allowed one goal on with just 1.4 expected goals (xGA) in their last two matches. But those contests were in Ligue 1 play and the quality of competition in the French top flight is not nearly the same as it is in the other top European leagues. Les Parisiens’ defensive numbers in that league are probably overstated. While they have conceded 19 goals in Ligue 1, their xGA rises to a 22.50 mark. The defensive results in the Group Stage of the Champions League are likely more reflective of what to expect from manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side. PSG allowed eight goals in their six Group Stage matches — and their xGA was even worse at a 10.7 clip. They only registered a clean sheet once in those six contests (surprisingly against Man City who did generate 1.90 xG but still somehow got blanked). To make matters worse for Pochettino, he will not have center-back Sergio Ramos to anchor his backline for this match as he remains out with an injury. But PSG will have Neymar available after he was out for an extended period with an injury. I suspect Neymar will come off the bench as a sub given his fitness issues — but Les Parisiens still have their dream-team combination up top of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe which will become even more potent when Neymar joins this on the pitch. PSG will score in this match after registering 13 goals in their six Group Stage matches — and they will surrender at least once to Los Blancos. Real Madrid will have their star attacker, Karim Benzema, available for this match to join Vinicius Junior up top. Los Blancos are tops in La Liga in both goals scored and expected goals (xG). This side scored at least two goals in their final four Group Stage matches in the Champions League. The defensive play of Los Blancos under manager Carlo Ancelotti has also been superb — but I am not buying it against elite competition. Real Madrid had a relatively easy group with Inter Milan, Shakhtar Donetsk, and FC Sheriff). And they have been feasting on the lower end of the Spanish top-flight lately. But while Los Blancos have allowed just 20 goals to help them rest in first place in La Liga, they are just sixth in that league with their 25.35 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: These teams are playing higher-scoring matches against top competition. Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory against Barcelona in the Super Cup on January 12th is telling. Los Blancos also scored twice in December in league play against Atletico Madrid to overwhelm their elite defense. PSG followed up their two-goal win against Man City with a 2-1 loss in November in that reverse fixture in the Champions League. And in their two matches in the Champions League against a good but not great RB Leipzig side, they won by a 3-2 score and settled for a 2-2 draw. Expect more fireworks in this one — and these two powers have seen at least three goals scored in the last five meetings between them. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford may get most of the attention for both these teams — but both of these offensive head coaches value their running game to help their underrated defenses. The Bengals controlled the Time of Possession by being on offense for 35:56 minutes against the Chiefs to hold them just under 40 yards below their season Yards-Per-Game average. Cincinnati has held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 21 points. The Bengals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a close win by six points or less — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in seven straight games — and they have payed 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three games in a row. And while their game with Kansas City finished below the 54.5. point total, they have then played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is a true road game for the Bengals playing the Rams in their SoFi Stadium — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has held six of their last eight opponents to no more than 23 points after their victory against the 49ers — and they only gave up only 27 points in those other two contests. The Rams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Los Angeles has won six of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored — and Cincinnati has palled 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (7-15) has lost three in a row after their 73-71 upset loss to East Carolina as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. Cincinnati (16-7) has won two of their last three contests with their 70-59 win at South Florida as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa has lost ten of their last eleven games — but they have been a very tough out on their home court while not getting many breaks in close games. Besides losing to the Pirates by just a basket during this rough stretch, they also lost at home to Houston and Memphis by just two points — and they lost at home to SMU and Temple by just five points apiece. Earlier in the season. Tulsa upset Rhode Island on their home court. The Golden Hurricane allowed East Carolina to nail 50.9% of their shots after not allowing their last three opponents to make more than 41.3% of their shots. Tulsa has been playing better on the defensive end of the court — they held those three previous opponents to just 34.7% shooting. The Golden Hurricane have bounced back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after losing three games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. The Golden Hurricane are just 6-7 on their home court but they are outscoring their guests by +6.7 Points-Per-Game. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games when an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games as a dog getting up to three points. Cincinnati may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit loss. The Bearcats are also 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Now they stay on the road where they are only making 38.9% of their shots. Cincinnati can’t shoot the basketball — they rank 266th in the nation in effective field goal percentage with a 47.8% clip while ranking no higher than 255th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Bearcats are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when favored. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games with the Total set in the 130s — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Tulsa will be motivated to avenge a 90-69 loss at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite on January 20th. The Bearcats nailed 16 of their 29 shots from 3-point range in that game — but they are not likely to come close to repeating that 55.2% clip from downtown on the road where they make just 33.3% of their 3-pointers. The Golden Hurricane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when avenging a loss. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (776) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (775). Best of luck for us — Frank.