At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). THE SITUATION: Boston College (8-10) has lost three games in a row after their 85-63 loss to Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog. North Carolina (12-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 80-59 victory at Louisville as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels dominated the Cardinals on Saturday by holding them to just a 37.0% field goal percentage — the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But North Carolina is not an elite defensive team this season. After ranking 35th in the nation last year in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their trek to the national championship game, they have dropped to 58th in that metric this season. But the Tar Heels remain an outstanding offensive team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win of 20 or more points. They return home where they are making 48.1% of their shots which has resulted in 83.4 Points-Per-Game on their home court. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston College only made 38.2% of their shots on Saturday in their loss to the Demon Deacons — that was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. But the Eagles' defense continues to struggle as they allowed Wake Forest to nail 52.3% of their shots — and that came on the heels of them allowing Miami (FL) to shoot 60.4% from the field in their previous game. Boston College has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they allow their opponents to convert 49.5% of their shots. The Eagles have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 8-0 at home this season — and Boston College has seen the Over go 33-16-2 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston College (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. Perhaps Jensen will help with the ground game for Tampa Bay's offense that has only averaged 77 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — but considering that their running backs are last in the league averaging 1.2 yards-after-contact, the problem is not with opening up holes at the line of scrimmage. If the Buccaneers lose tonight, they will go down with the ball in Brady’s hands. He is averaging 44 pass attempts per game — and we should not be surprised if he throws the ball at least 50 times tonight. A pass-heavy play script is a good recipe for the Over — especially when the number is below 50. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Buccaneers have allowed their last three opponents to average 369.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is +44.7 net YPG above their season average. That regressing unit presents a welcome opportunity for a Cowboys team that comes off an embarrassing loss where they only put up 182 total yards despite Dak Prescott playing for most of that game. Frankly, it was one of the worst efforts in his career as he completed just 14 of 37 passes for only 128 yards against the Eagles last week. Dallas has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Prescott missed time earlier in the season due to injury so tonight will be just the third time he has been under center following a game where he was their starting quarterback in a losing effort. The Cowboys scored 40 points in both of those previous contests — and Prescott has completed a combined 49 passes from 61 attempts for an 80.3% completion percentage for 623 passing yards, five touchdown passes, and only one interception. He has added 57 rushing yards in those two games as well. Furthermore, Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Prescott leads an offense that leads the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate — they have reached the end zone in 40 of their 54 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Cowboys have played 7 of their 8 games this season Over the Total when the Total was set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over their Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening week game between these two teams in which Tampa Bay won by a 19-3 score in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams have played 10 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Head coach Todd Bowles' teams have played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog getting up to three points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in six straight games after their 11-point loss in Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 36-13-2 in their last 51 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. The Ravens have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. They only managed 55 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow. On the other side of the ball, the Cincinnati defense remains underrated. They hold their guests to just 309.4 total YPG when playing at home which translates into 18.0 PPG. The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Under is also 21-7-2 in their last 29 games in January — and they have played 4 straight Unders. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 straight Unders in the playoffs. The Under is also 12-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 16 games against AFC opponents — and the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). THE SITUATION: New York (9-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 17-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 29-13 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings had played six straight games with at least 49 combined points scored before their victory against the Bears in the final week of the regular season. That streak started after Minnesota only scored a field goal in their flat 40-3 loss at home to Dallas. That game came after their 33-30 barn-burning victory at Buffalo the previous week. The Vikings cannot stop anyone — but the brilliance of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the veteran competency of quarterback Kirk Cousins usually results in higher-scoring games for this team. Minnesota has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win. Cousins completed 17 of 20 passes for 225 yards before making way for Nick Mullens who added another 116 passing yards. The Vikings gained 482 total yards against Chicago last week — and they have played 6 of their alert 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings’ defense has surrendered 29.6 Points-Per-Game in their last five games even after the Bears only put up 13 points against them. Their defense ranks 28th in the league in weighted DVOA Defense using the metrics at Football Outsiders that privilege the most recent performances. Minnesota returns home where they are scoring 27.0 PPG — but they are allowing their guests to generate 393.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.2 PPG. The Vikings have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total including seven of their last eight home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 24 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, the Vikings have played 17 of these games Over the Total. New York had scored 20 points in six straight games before only scoring 16 points last week against the Eagles in a game where head coach Brian Daboll rested many of his key starters including quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants' defense has allowed six of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points with the two exceptions being the anemic offenses of Indianapolis and Washington. The Over is 4-1-1 in New York’s last 6 games after a point spread win — and the Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. New York is generating 374.3 YPG in their last three games while ranking 7th in weighted Offensive DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Giants also lead the NFL in Red Zone DVOA Offense — and they will be going against a Vikings’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league in Red Zone DVOA Defense so their drives should result in more touchdowns than field goals if those trends hold up. Minnesota allows their opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes — and New York has played 4 straight Overs in the second half of the season against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. And while the Vikings score 24.9 PPG, the Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has led Minnesota to eight game-winning touchdowns this season — but Daniel Jones is responsible for five game-winning drives himself in his breakout season under Daboll’s direction. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak to make the playoffs with their 19-16 win in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 38-13 victory against Arizona as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 255 yards in their victory last week. The Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. San Francisco has the best defensive unit in the NFL when using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — they rank 2nd in the league Run Defense and 5th against the Pass according to those DVOA analytics. They allow only 16.3 Points-Per-Game — and they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 303.8 Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. In their two games against the Seahawks this season, they held Seattle to only 20 combined points with the lone touchdown they surrendered taking place in garbage time in the second game between these teams in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy completed 15 of his 20 passes for 178 yards last week against the Cardinals — but the 49ers offense only gained just 311 yards against them. The Niners only generated 142 net passing yards after accounting for lost yards in sacks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. San Francisco stays at home at Levi’s Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs. Seattle held the Rams to only 123 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Seahawks have only given up 22 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Seattle ran for 197 yards against the Rams en route to 322 total yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Seahawks will clearly try to slow this game down by running Kenneth Walker early and burning time off the clock. Seattle has played four straight Unders — and not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders, but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 21-13 win in Seattle on December 15th. Purdy completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards in that game — but head coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks now have first-hand experience playing against the former Iowa State quarterback in addition to now three more games of tape against him. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Lastly, the weather forecast calls for wind and rain — and 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan may reel in his play-calling with the rookie under center to not take unnecessary chances given those conditions. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 69-67 upset loss to Iowa State as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 56-46 win at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU allowed the Cyclones to nail 52.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. They should rebound tonight as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss to a Big 12 opponent. They are also 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Head coach Jamie Dixon has one of the most experienced teams in the nation — they rank 3rd in Division I with 77% of their minutes back from the club that took Arizona to overtime in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs play with a style that travels well to hostile environments. They rank 19th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They rank 16th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Not only does this team create extra-scoring possessions, but they also play outstanding defense. TCU ranks 255th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are led by a superb point guard Mike Miles, Jr. who leads the team in scoring, assists, and steals. The Horned Frogs have won all five of their games on the road this season while making 47.0% of their shots.  — and they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win including their last four contests after covering the point spread. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games when playing their second game in five days. Interim head coach Rodney Terry is doing a fine job with this team — but the firing of head coach Chris Beard certainly hurts this squad. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games since Beard was suspended (and later fired when police pressed battery charges against him for what he did to his wife). If there is a flaw to this team, it is that they foul too much — they rank 246th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. Additionally, while Texas ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark plummets to 112th in the country in defensive efficiency when playing at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. TCU is 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games as an underdog. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (747) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (748). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Horned Frogs have been a great story all season — and they continued their Cinderella run last week with an improbable victory against the Wolverines. But cooler heads need to prevail with how improbable this achievement was — as they needed help from the refs, along with arrogant play-calling from the Michigan coaching staff, and plenty of mistakes from the Wolverines’ players. TCU got outgained by -40 yards with their defense giving up 528 total yards. On the first drive of the game, Michigan should have taken the three points when it was 4th down on the Horned Frogs' 2-yard line. Instead, they went for it, which is fine enough, but rather than running behind their two-time reigning Joe Moore award-winning top offensive line, they called some double-reverse Philly special disaster that was flagged by their calling a timeout before the play — as if winning the game was already a lock and they wanted to load up the game tape for their opponent in the national championship. The defensive stop gave the underdogs momentum — and that was later bolstered when the Horned Frogs returned the first of two interceptions for touchdowns. Michigan failed to score touchdowns on three drives that got inside the TCU 3-yard line — they settled for only three points in those drives. The referees played a role in one of those red zone failures by a very sketchy overturn in a 50-yard touchdown pass (after these refs incorrectly spotted the previous play five yards farther back against the Wolverines than it should have been). The Wolverines then muffed the handoff to the linebacker-converted running back. From J.J. McCarthy’s two pick-sixes in this game and the two failures to score points at the TCU two-yard line, that represented a likely 27-point swing for the Horned Frogs (who missed a two-point conversion on the second interception they returned for a touchdown) — and Michigan still had the ball with a chance to win the game (before the refs swallowed their whistles after a textbook targeting violation which would have been called every time if not in the last minute of the game). The Wolverines exposed the TCU defense in the second half when they finally unleashed McCarthy to move the ball with his legs. Michigan scored 35 points in a 16 minute-span beginning with their field goal to end the 3rd quarter. But they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. As it is, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. And while McCarthy threw for 343 yards against them, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 280 or more yards in their last contest. This remains a team that has won six of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession with five second-half comebacks along the way. Away from home, TCU is only outgaining their opponents by +12.7 Yards-Per-Game while giving up 428.6 YPG. The Horned Frogs' defense is far from elite — they have given up 31 or more points six times and 28 or more points eight times (which is more than half their games). Immediately after the game, there was a narrative that their 3-3-5 defense held up against the stout Michigan offensive line. Really? The Wolverines ran the ball 40 times for 186 yards (4.65 YPC) even with their questionable play-calling. Only a Big 12 team can be praised for the play of their defense after giving up 45 points and 528 total yards. And now here comes Georgia looking to defend their national championship from last year after demonstrating their grit and tenacity to beat a Buckeyes team with nothing to lose after losing their big game against Michigan which seemed to remove them from the playoffs at the time. Georgia has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss including nine of these last eleven circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bulldogs outgained Ohio State by +66 net yards after generating 533 total yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. While their elite defense gets most of the credit, the Georgia offense has scored at least 37 points in three straight games and four of their last five after scoring 37 or more points in three straight games. And while the Bulldogs have allowed 348 passing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards. Georgia has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last week, are the Horned Frogs still a bit satisfied to just be in this position? I felt that way last week — and while they pulled off the upset, they needed lots of help. In head coach Sonny Dykes first year with the program after they were 5-7 last year, there is simply a huge talent disparity in this game. Can TCU pull off another improbable effort? This is the 5th time in the last three seasons where they are an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral field. Georgia is loaded with future NFL talent that has won 28 of their last 29 games in the last two seasons. They have a huge edge in big-game experience — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including these last seven circumstances. Look for the Bulldogs to seize a lead, impose their will, and overwhelm the Horned Frogs for the win and cover. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs scored 51 points against Michigan — but two of their touchdowns came from defensive interceptions returned for scores. TCU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Even when the Wolverines began their furious comeback in the second half, they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The Horned Frogs need to tighten things up on defense after allowing 528 yards to the Wolverines. TCU has played 5 straight Unders after allowing 40 or more points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. Georgia generated 533 yards against the Buckeyes last week — but they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. The Bulldogs have scored at least 37 points in three straight games — and they have played all three of those games Over the Total. But Georgia has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Bulldogs may be without one of their key weapons on offense with 6’7 tight end Darnell Washington questionable with an ankle injury he suffered last week. Washington joins tight end  Brock Bowers to form the foundation of Georgia’s smash-mouth spread offensive scheme that leans on these tight ends and their running backs as opposed to wide receivers — so his absence will throw a monkey wrench in the Bulldogs' offensive identity.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has allowed their last two opponents to score 71 combined points after their first 12 opponents only score 136 combined points against them. I expect head coach Kirby Smart to slow this game down with the expectation that his defense remains the best unit in this game and the Bulldogs’ experience will lead them to a victory (and Smart’s priority is winning the game, not covering the point spread). Georgia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. 25* CFB Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-9) has won two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three in a row after their 16-13 upset win at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns upset the Commanders despite only gaining 301 total yards of offense last week. Deshaun Watson has been underwhelming in his return from suspension — he only completed 9 of 18 passes against Washington for 169 yards (although he did throw three touchdown passes). Despite Watson’s fully guaranteed contract that he signed as a free agent from Houston, head coach Kevin Stefanski has his team running the football with his high-priced sex offender. The Browns had not scored more than 13 points in three straight games before reaching 24 points last week. But the Cleveland defense has been outstanding as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games. This should be a motivated group to play the role of spoiler to prevent Pittsburgh from making the playoffs — and sending Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin out with his first losing season in his career would be the icing on the cake. Furthermore, Jadeveon Clowney left the team this week after claiming he wanted to play for a team that “wanted” him — and that prompted Myles Garrett to paraphrase Tomlin in claiming that his team does not want “hostage” playing for them. Expect the defensive to play inspired football with the malcontent Clowney now out of the picture. As it is, Cleveland has played  4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They held the Commanders to just 124 passing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. And while they have played six straight Unders, Cleveland has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. In their last three games, they are generating just 277.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 15.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their last three opponents to 276.0 YPG and a mere 10.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Steelers have gained 351 yards against the Ravens with 198 of those yards coming on the ground. The Under is a decisive 47-22-2 in their last 71 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They held Baltimore to only 240 total yards — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games. They have held their last three opponents to 216.7 YPG and 13.0 PPG. But Pittsburgh has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five contests. Back at home, the Steelers are gaining only 317.0 YPG and 18.7 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by three points or less. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh makes the playoffs with a win this afternoon combined with a New England loss and Miami loss — so the stakes are high for them. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 games against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. They did give up 361 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more yards in their last game. The Titans go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 269.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The formula for success in this contest will be to keep running Henry who looks primed for at least 30 carries in this contest. But the Titans will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who had thrown only 17 career passes in the NFL before making his first career start last week against the Cowboys. Dobbs accounted for himself pretty well against the Dallas team — he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards. But the Jaguars will benefit from the game tape they now have on Dobbs for this contest. Jacksonville has only allowed six combined points in their last two games albeit against similarly less-than-ideal quarterbacking situations with Houston and the New York Jets. They held the Texans to just 277 total yards after limiting the Jets to only 227 yards the previous week. The Jags have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Houston only ran for 84 yards against them last week — and the Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Jacksonville ran for 169 yards against the Texans — making it the third straight game where they gained at least 147 yards on the ground. But the Jaguars have then played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. Jacksonville returns home where they are holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents including four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. 25* NFL ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). THE SITUATION: SIU-Edwardsville (10-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 82-73 upset loss to SE Missouri State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee State (9-6) has won three of their last four games after a 94-69 victory against Arkansas-Little Rock as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: SIU-Edwardsville allowed SE Missouri State to nail 48.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 39.2% shooting which results in only 61.3 Points-Per-Game for their guests. SIU-Edwardsville has a 5-1 record at home with a net point differential of +15.9 net PPG. They have covered 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. The Cougars pulled down 32.7% of their missed shots, ranking 67th in the nation. They now face a Tigers team that allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their misses, ranking 244th. Tennessee State made 58.9% of their shots in what was a season-high shooting effort for them this season. They nailed 14 of their 25 shots from behind the arc. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a game where they hit 13 or more of their 3-pointers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after making 50% or more of their 3-pointers. Additionally, Tennessee State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 90 or more points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road for the first time since December 3rd after playing seven straight games at home. They are just 1-4 on the road while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG. They only make 39.2% of their shots on the road and just 28.4% of their 3-pointers which translates into just 62.8 PPG. They are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games on the road — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Tennessee State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games after playing three or more straight games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN News Game of the Month with the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (772) minus the points versus the Tennessee State Tigers (771). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, whe will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). THE SITUATION: Bradley (10-5) has won three of their last four games with their 79-45 victory against Illinois-Chicago as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 78-61 win at Evansville as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves made 52.6% of their shots against the Flames which was the best shooting mark in their last seven games. Bradley has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Braves have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. This group is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their stout defensive play starts from their interior defense which holds their opponents to 41.9% shooting inside the arc, ranking 7th in the nation. This spells trouble for the Tigers who get 53.7% of their points from 2-pointers, ranking 100th in the nation. In their four true road games, Bradley ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their seven games away from home (including three games played on a neutral court), the Braves hold their opponents to 43.9% shooting which results in 65.3 Points-Per-Game. But Bradley only makes 39.4% of their shots away from home which is generating a mere 57.3 PPG. The Braves have played 5 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Murray State has played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they holding their opponents to 61.6 PPG. The Racers have played 5 straight Unders on their home court — and they have 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. Murray State scores 70.2 PPG on their home court — and they rank 255th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency Rate on offense in their five games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Racers rank 33rd in the nation in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 29.1% shooting from behind the arc — and Bradley ranks 59th in the nation by getting 36.2% of their points from 3-point shooting. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (8-7) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 88-66 win against St. John’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Creighton (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 80-65 win against DePaul as a 15.5-point favorite on Christmas Day.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates nailed 54.1% of their shots against the Red Storm — that field goal percentage along with their 88 points represented their best offensive numbers of the season. But Seton Hall has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points. And while the Pirates have played two straight Overs, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where they are only making 42.6% of their shots which is resulting in them scoring 65.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests — -4.9 PPG before their season average. Seton Hall has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Pirates are an outstanding defensive team in the first season under head coach Shaheen Holloway. Seton Hall ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 17th in the country by holding their opponents to 27.7% shooting from behind the arc. The Pirates like to get to the free throw line — they rank 6th in the nation in free throw rate. But now they play a Bluejays team that leads the nation in opponent free throw rate allowed. Creighton ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also limit their opponents to pulling down only 21.8% of their missed shots, ranking 7th best in the nation. The Bluejays were on a six-game losing streak before winning their last two games by double-digit wins at home against Big East Rivals. Both of those games coincided with the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner who missed three games to an injury last month. Creighton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their previous two games against conference opponents by 10 or more points. They have made at least 54.0% of their shots in their last two games after not shooting better than 46.3% in their previous six contests. The Bluejays have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after shooting 50% or better from the field in two straight games. They have scored 158 combined points in their last two contests — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. And in their last 5 games when playing with at least seven games between contests, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with seven or more days between games. They stay at home where they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting which is translating into their opponents scoring just 60.1 PPG. The Under is 21-10-1 in Creighton’s last 32 games at home — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Additionally, the Bluejays have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 27-24 win against the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite on December 24th. Green Bay (7-8) has won three straight games after their 26-20 upset win at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins had another good game against the Giants — he completed 34 of 48 passes for 299 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In his last four games, Cousins has thrown for 1357 yards for a 339 passing Yards-Per-Game average — and he has tossed ten touchdowns during that span. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Vikings generated 353 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But Minnesota also gave up 435 yards to the Giants in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teas with a losing record at home. Green Bay has found their offensive identity (finally) — they are scoring 26.5 PPG in their last six games. The key to the Packers' offensive success has been to lean into their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In Green Bay’s last four games, those two running backs have 117 combined touches for 635 yards with six touchdowns. The Packers have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back home where they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. Green Bay is looking to avenge a 23-7 loss in Minnesota on September 11th — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings at Lambeau Field Over the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. As it is, the Buckeyes have played 8 straight Unders after getting blown out by 21 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a Big Ten opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss when favored by six or more points. I am a bit worried about quarterback C.J. Stroud facing this stout Bulldogs’ defense. While Stroud leads the Ohio State attack when playing the role of a flat track bully, the Buckeyes’ offense stalled too often against their most challenging three opponents. Against Michigan, Ohio State only scored a field goal in the final 33 minutes. The Buckeyes had scored only 16 points with under ten minutes to go against Penn State before the floodgates opened in that game. Ohio State scored just 21 points and gained less than 400 total yards in their opening game against Notre Dame. Stroud seems reluctant to use his legs to gain yards — negating a skill that has become so valuable in these pass-heavy attacks. Stroud also keys-in too much on his first read while lacking advanced skills to move to a second (or third) option — and that is how the Wolverines burned him after sandbagging that defensive tactic. Now Stroud and a Buckeyes offense that will play without injured running back TreVeyon Henderson faces a stiffer test against Georgia — who has a healthy Jalen Carter at defensive tackle after he has missed time with injuries. While the Bulldogs’ defense was not as historic as last year’s group, they still held their opponents to just 12.8 PPG and 292.2 Yards-Per-Game. Georgia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs generated 529 yards against LSU while averaging 7.56 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last contest. And while Georgia has scored 87 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders in bowl games — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 10-4-2 in Georgia’s last 16 games played on a neutral field — and the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Ohio State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (39-10) won for the third time in their last four games in their 39-10 victory against North Carolina as a 7-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 3rd. Tennessee (10-2) has won two of their last three games after their 56-0 win against Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson’s season was jumpstarted against the Tar Heels when head coach Dabo Swinney benched junior D.J. Uigalelei for freshman phenom Cade Klubnik in the first half of that game. Klubnik completed 20 of his 24 passes for 279 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to lead the Tigers to the 29-point win. Klubnik was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the 2022 class — and it was clear his presence on the field energized his teammates. Now this Clemson team looks to build momentum for a potential national championship run next year. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after a win by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games on the road after a win by 28 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point-spread win. And after Clemson passed for 317 yards overall against the Tar Heels, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Swinney has to adjust two significant opt-outs with defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson leaving the team to prepare for the NFL draft. But star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee is playing in this game and the players entering the transfer portal are limited. The Tigers remain loaded with talent on defense after holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game this season. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Tennessee’s losses at this point of the season are much more significant. Their top two wide receivers, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Their top linebacker Jeremy Banks has also opted out. Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left the program to become the head coach at South Florida. But the biggest loss has been the season-ending injury to quarterback Hendon Hooker who has since left the team for the NFL draft. Senior Joe Milton will be their quarterback tonight after he completed only 11 of 21 passes for just 147 yards against the Commodores. Milton does not operate the Volunteers' offense like Hooker was able to do. He originally played at Michigan where he was unable to hold on to the starting quarterback job in 2020 — the Wolverines’ 2-4 season. After losing the starting job, he transferred to Tennessee where he was the presumed starter in head coach Josh Heupel’s first season. But he faltered and was quickly usurped by Hooker who took the quarterback gig and ran with it the last two seasons. Hilton has a strong arm — but his accuracy remains a problem and he is not as mobile as Hooker. The Volunteers relied on their running game against the Volunteers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by three or more touchdowns. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Volunteers’ defense is a weak link — especially in the passing game where they ranked 94th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and gave up 450 or more passing yards in three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 bowl games under Swinney. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (8-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 24th. Texas Tech (7-5) has won three games in a row after their 51-48 upset victory in overtime against Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on November 26th. This game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: For those that question the motivation Ole Miss has for this game, then they don’t appreciate what Lane Kiffin is trying to do with this football program. Kiffin proclaimed himself the “portal king” after bringing in 15 transfer players last year — with many of them highly recruited out of high school. Kiffin firmly believes the paradigm has changed. Gone are the days of bringing in huge freshmen classes of players who will stay in the program for five years. Instead, high-profile coaches like Kiffin can recruit players from other schools and offer them high-profile jobs that represent either an upgrade from their current situation or more playing time from where they are at. Given that, bowl games like this — especially in prime time — are essential recruiting opportunities to sell the program. Now that the black cloud regarding the rumors of him taking the Auburn job that continued past kick-off in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State last month, Kiffin and his new contract extension are all-in with this program. It starts by ending the season on a positive note. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. And while Ole Miss has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kiffin’s roster is close to fully intact with no players opting out for the NFL draft. Three players entered the transfer portal including a cornerback in the two deep — but the departing defensive end only had 31 snaps and backup quarterback Luke Altmyer is clearly behind sophomore Jaxson Dart. The former USC transfer completed 63% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He is complemented by freshman phenom running back Quinshon Judkins who has rushed for 439 yards with a 6.18 Yards-Per-Carry despite the Rebels losing those games — all to bowl teams in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, by the way. Ole Miss outscored their opponents by +10.0 Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +109.5 net Yards-Per-Game. In their five road games, the Rebels outscored their opponents by +5.8 PG and outgained them by +135.0 net YPG. Led by Judkins and Dart who averaged 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in his 117 rushing attempts, Ole Miss was third in the nation by averaging 262 rushing YPG. They should have plenty of success running against this Red Raiders defense that ranks 90th in the FBS by allowing 166 rushing YPG. The Texas Tech defense is the weak link in this game — they rank 97th in the nation by allowing 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, the Red Raiders are allowing 540.0 YPG. This team comes into this bowl game riding high with two straight upsets against Iowa State and then the Sooners. But Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset against a Big 12 rival including four of these last five circumstances. Additionally, the Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point-spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. This team overachieved in the first season under head coach Joey McGuire — they have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. But this group is just 1-4 on the road with them getting outscored by -7.6 PPG. This Texas Tech is also without their All-American defensive end Tyree Wilson who has been out with an injury since November. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: McGuire was an assistant head coach for Baylor last year after being their tight ends coach for years — but his previous experience was as a long-time high school coach in Texas so this is his first bowl game as a head coach. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the SEC. Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah State (6-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 42-23 loss at Boise State as a 16.5-point underdog on November 25th. Memphis (6-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-31 loss at SMU as a 4-point underdog to end their regular season. This game is being played at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: SMU lost all four of their games decided by one possession. After settling for a 6-6 mark last year with 13 starters back from that squad, expectations were higher for this team rather than settling for another 6-6 campaign and a bowl date with a 6-6 team from the Mountain West Conference. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Memphis has a dynamic offense led by sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan who completed 27 of 44 passes for 287 yards in the loss to the Mustangs. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. Henigan will be challenged by a Utah State defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But the bigger problem for Memphis is their defense as they allow 27.3 Points-Per-Game — and in their five games on the road, they allowed their opponents to generate 420.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.2 PPG. The Tigers have a 25-4 record at home at Liberty Bowl Memorial since 2017 — but they were just 1-4 on the road this season. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after the first month of the season under head coach Ryan Silverfield. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. For Utah State, contrary to published reports, senior running back Calvin Tyler, Jr. is not opting-out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Said Tyler about these rumors, he is “definitely playing.” He rushed for 1043 yards this season. He is joined by junior quarterback Cooper Legas who may be labeled a third-stringer by some given the talent that second-year head coach Blake Anderson brought in through the transfer portal, but Legas was the Most Valuable Player in last year’s Louisiana Bowl when he led the Aggies to a 24-13 victory against Oregon State. He completed 23 of 40 passes for 306 yards and added 51 rushing yards against the stout Boise State defense in Utah State’s last game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. They should have success against this Memphis defense that ranks 104th in the FBS in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Tigers also rank 126th in the nation in Points Allowed from opponent trips inside their 40-yard line. After a 1-4 start which included losses at Alabama and BYU (along with bad losses to Weber State and UNLV), Utah State won five of their last seven games. The Aggies have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Anderson’s teams at Utah State and in his previous stint at Arkansas State have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival by double-digits. Anderson’s Utah State teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). THE SITUATION: Golden State (15-18) has lost two straight games — and five of their last six — after their 143-113 loss at Brooklyn as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis (20-11) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 125-100 win at Phoenix as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State head coach Steve Kerr called out his team for their bad play after allowing the Nets to make 64.3% of their shots on Wednesday. That was the worst defensive effort for the defending NBA champions all season. The team remains without the injured Stephen Curry — but his absence does not come close to explaining this poor effort against Brooklyn. Klay Thompson got the night off in that game — and he will be back on the court tonight. The Warriors have been inconsistent from night to night — but after that bad effort and with this game on at the prestigious prime-time Christmas Day slot, expect a spirited effort from this proud group even without Curry. Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after a loss by 10 or more points. The extra days off will help — as will returning home after playing their last six games on the road. The Warriors are a disaster on the road where they are just 3-16 — but they have a 12-2 record back on their home court. Granted, Curry’s 45% shooting percentage from behind the arc on their home court plays a role in Golden State’s better play at home, but the team’s young players perform much better in their friendly and familiar confines. The Warriors are 48-23-2 ATS in their last 73 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. And while the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Memphis finishes up their four-game road trip for this contest. While the Grizzlies have a 13-2 record at home, they are just 7-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by -3.2 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to shoot 47.0% from the field. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Additionally, the Grizzlies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played at Golden State against the Warriors. Even without Curry and the injured Andre Wiggins, the reigning champions should bring their A-Game tonight. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (594) plus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (593). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). THE SITUATION: Portland (17-15) has lost three of their last four games after a 101-98 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (19-11) has won two straight games and five of their last six contests after their 105-91 win against Memphis as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland has been upset twice this week in Oklahoma City on Monday and Wednesday — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road playing their third game in five days. The Trail Blazers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 110 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing their last game Under the Total with that game finishing far below the 236-point total. We had the Blazers on Wednesday and recognized they the team had been playing better with star Damian Lillard back from injury. Lillard only scored 16 points on Wednesday — but in his previous seven games this month, Lillard was scoring 32.6 Points-Per-Game. He was leading a scoring attack that is nailing 50.9% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 119.8 PPG before their flat effort against the Thunder — but they were still covering the point spread at the 2:29 minute mark of the fourth quarter. Against fellow Northwest Division opponents, Portland is still making 50.8% of their shots and scoring 120.0 PPG. The Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting six points or less. Portland has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. And while the Nuggets raced out to a 55-40 halftime lead against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after taking a 15-point or better lead into halftime. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 105 points in their last contest. Denver continues to struggle with their play on defense despite their strong effort against Memphis — they allow their opponents to make 48.7% of their shots which results in them giving up 114.0 PPG. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points . They may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with an ankle injury. But Michael Porter, Jr. may return to the court after missing time with a heel injury — although he may need some time to get rid of the rust. The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when Porter returns to the court after missing the prior game which was a victory for Denver.

FINAL TAKE: Portland will be looking to avenge their 121-120 loss at home to the Nuggets in a heartbreaker on December 8th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Underdog of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (575) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (7-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset loss at Duke as a 3-point favorite on November 26th. Missouri (6-6) has won two in a row and four of their last six after a 29-27 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers are a lower-scoring team that averages only 25.5 Points-Per-Game. They did not score more than 24 points eight times — and in their five games away from home, they scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 336.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Quarterback Brady Cook was up-and-down in his sophomore season — and he will be without his top wide receiver target Dominic Lovett who had 56 catches for 846 receiving yards as he is in the transfer portal. Missouri ran for 226 yards in their upset win against the Razorbacks en route to 468 total yards. The Tigers have played 5 straight Unders after rushing for 200 or more yards — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 35-16-2 in their last 53 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Missouri has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. The Tigers are dealing with some opt-outs on their defense — while they were 3rd in the SEC with 33 sacks, they are losing 17 of those sacks from three players making themselves available for the NFL draft. This remains a team that held their opponents to 337.9 total YPG this year. The offense perked up in their final three games when head coach Eli Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan — but Hamdan has left to take over the offensive coordinator gig at Boise State which means Drinkwitz will be back to calling plays again. A problem for this Tigers' offense was the play of their offensive line as they allowed 91 tackles for loss, ranking 114th in the nation. Missouri was 112th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed — and the Demon Deacons ranked 31st in the nation in Havoc Rate on defense. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Wake Forest has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread once in their last three games. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons gained 453 yards against the Blue Devils in their last game — but they surrendered 507 total yards. Wake Forest has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards. This will be the last game in a Deacons uniform for 5th-year quarterback Sam Hartman who will either enter the NFL draft or transfer to another program. He has led Wake Forest to score at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three straight games. All three of those games saw 65 or more combined points scored — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after playing three or more in a row with 60 or more combined points scored. The defense struggled in those three games without injured safety Malik Mustapha — but he is expected back for this game. The Demon Deacons' offense was more dynamic at home where they averaged 41.9 PPG while scoring at least 34 in each game. But Wake Forest’s four-lowest scoring efforts this year were on the road — including two games where they only scored 21 points. They averaged 29.8 PPG in their five road games — and their opponents' 388.0 YPG mark was -23.9 YPG lower than their season average, so their defense was a bit more effective. The Demon Deacons have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and Missouri has played 4 straight Unders on a neutral field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (11-1) has won nine straight games after their 91-67 victory against San Diego as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-63 upset loss at UT-Arlington as a 15-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils nailed 47.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. Arizona State has played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 7 straight Unders after a win by double-digits at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The Sun Devils have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. They also allowed the Toreros to shoot 40.0% despite their opponent’s field goal percentage of 35.1%. Arizona State ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to 61.3 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils play outstanding half-court defense — they are 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.4% while ranking 2nd in the country by limiting their opponents to making only 39.1% of their shots inside the arc. Now Arizona State goes back on the road where they make only 42.2% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They only shot 38.2% from the field against the Mavericks in their last game — but they did nail 13 of their 31 (42%) shots from 3-point range. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 13 more snots from behind the arc in their last contest. San Francisco is not likely to come close to replicating that effort tonight considering they only make 32.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 206th in the nation. The Dons are going to struggle to score against the Sun Devils. Most of their scoring comes from inside the arc where they make 53.1% of their shots, ranking 80th in the nation — but that plays right into the heart of the Arizona State defense. San Francisco ranks just 173rd in the nation in offensive rebounding — and they do not get to the free throw line as they rank 180th in the free throw rate. The Dons do not draw a ton of fouls — their last two opponents to committed just 14 and 11 personal fouls. San Francisco has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not drawing 15 or more fouls in two straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They hold their guests to 41.2% shooting which results in 63.3 PPG. They also rank 38th in the nation in 3-point defense by limiting their opponents to a 29.0% shooting percentage from 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State will be looking to avenge a 66-65 loss at home to the Dons as a 2.5-point underdog last season. The Sun Devils have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has finally embraced the potential of the Green Bay offense if they commit to running the ball more behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. After bottoming out with just 12 rushing attempts in a 23-21 loss at Washington, the Packers have since run the ball at least 19 times in their last six games including 31 or more rushes in three of those games. They have gained at least 106 yards on the ground in five of those six games — and they gained 175 or more on the ground three times. Sticking with the running game helps Rodgers be more effective in the passing attack since defenders get burned for simply stepping back to defend the pass. It is not a coincidence that Christian Watson has stepped up as a deep threat in the second half of the season coinciding with these increased rushing efforts. Watson has now caught 11 of his 23 targets of more than 10 air yards — resulting in 294 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Packers ran for 175 yards on 32 carries against the Bears — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Toal after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. But the play of the Packers' defense remains an issue — especially since the season-ending injury to linebacker Rashan Gary. The Packers have allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bears gained 409 yards against them two weeks ago — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. Green Bay returns home where Rodgers has been much more effective with a Passer Rating of 104 with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home at Lambeau Field. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the benefit of the mini-bye after playing on a Thursday. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns. But the Rams’ defense misses Aaron Donald who will be out once again for this game. They have given up 392.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they have surrendered 26 or more points in four of their last five games. They did hold the Raiders to 137 passing yards — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December. With both of these teams essentially out of the playoffs, look for a wild one tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only gained 304 total yards last week in their loss to the Eagles. After thriving under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, defenses have adjusted to running back Saquon Barkley who perhaps is beginning to tire in the back half of the season. Barkley ran the ball only nine times last week for 28 yards — and he has only 38 carries in his last three games for 130 rushing yards. The Under is 15-5-2 in New York’s last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point-spread loss. And while the Giants got outgained by -133 net yards, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last contest. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but the Under is then 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. But in their last three games, they are scoring just 20.7 PPG and generating just 306.7 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commanders ran for 165 yards against the Giants two weeks ago — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. They get the rematch at home where they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. But the Washington defense is playing as well as any defensive unit in the league lately. They have held their last three opponents to 14.3 PPG and 279.3 YPG — and this group will be even better if and when Chase Young returns to action from his injury (which could be tonight). The Commanders have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home in the second half of the season. They have also played 4 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Washington’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in December. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five contests — after their 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 4th. New Orleans (4-9) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five as well — after a 17-16 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only gained 306 total yards against the Steelers in their last game. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game and generating a mere 306.0 total YPG in their last three contests. It is this ineptitude on offense that played a role in head coach Arthur Smith benching Marcus Mariota and turning to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has yet to appear in an NFL game this season — this will be a tough test in a very hostile environment against a stout defense. With tight end Kyle Pitts out the season with a torn MCL, this remains a limited Falcons’ offense that lacks weapons in the passing attack. Ridder may offer a more credible vertical threat in the passing game, but Smith is not going to ask Ridder to do too much — and this will remain a run-first team. Atlanta is scoring only 19.0 PPG and generating 290.8 total YPG in their six games on the road. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Falcons have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Atlanta surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Steelers in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams that lack a winning record at home. New Orleans only gained 298 yards in their loss to the Buccaneers just under two weeks ago. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. And while they only rushed for 66 yards against Tampa Bay, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 90 rushing yards in their last contest. New Orleans is scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 293.7 total YPG in those games. But the Saints are staying competitive by holding those last three opponents to 16.7 PPG — and they only allow 307.0 total YPG in their six games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December — and the Saints have played 5 straight Unders in December. This is a rematch of New Orleans’ 27-26 win in Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on September 11th — but these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Under the Total. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062) in the Finals of the Men’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W5-D0-L1) advances to the Finals of the World Cup with their 2-0 victory against Morocco on Wednesday. Argentina (W5-D0-L1) reached the Finals the day before with their 3-0 victory against Croatia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: France has been the highest-scoring side in this competition with 13 goals scored. The deeper metrics confirm the scoring prowess of Les Bleus with 13.1 expected goals. In their victory against Morocco, they posted 2.25 xG even against a defensive side. Led by Kylian Mbappe who has scored five goals in this event, this team has probably the best player in the world right now. But the continuing concern for manager Didier Deschamps has been the shaky play of his back line. France has conceded at least one goal in five of their six matches. Overall, Les Bleus have allowed five goals — and the expected goals they have allowed in this tournament suggest it should be even worse with their 7.37 xGA mark. In their last three matches in the Knockout Stage, France has allowed 6.03 xGA with all three of these opponents reaching 1.43 xGA or higher. To compound matters, the “air conditioning” bug that has been spreading in Qatar — blamed on the constant air conditioning blasting throughout the city for this world event — has impacted the Les Bleus locker room with defenders Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate under the weather. Varane, at least, should still play — but it is a worry if he is not at 100% overcoming a flu bug. Argentina has been dynamic in their scoring attack with 12 goals scored in this tournament — and their xG is 13.72. They generated 3.19 xG in their victory against the stout defense of Croatia. La Albiceleste has scored two or more goals in five straight games. This has been a breakout tournament for Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez. But the straw that stirs the drink remains Lionel Messi who has been outstanding in the pursuit of his first World Cup title to put the bow on his illustrious career. Messi has scored five goals himself in this event — and he is playing to cement his status as the Greatest Of All Time in this match. But Le Albiceleste is not strong with their fullbacks — and they have surrendered leads too often in this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey affairs that usually are lower-scoring matches — and that is how this match should initially play out. But if and when a team scores the first goal, this contest should open up. France is a counter-attacking side — so expect Argentina to control possession. With the Mbappe versus Messi narrative involved in this match along with two shaky defenses, expect a higher-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA  overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped with an 81-70 loss at West Virginia as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. South Carolina (5-4) has won three of their last four contests after their 68-57 win against Presbyterian as a 9-point favorite on December 11th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS MINUS THE POINTS: UAB lost for just the second time this season after losing to Toledo on a neutral court. They have bounced back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while the 50.0% shooting percentage of the  Mountaineers on Saturday was the Blazers’ worst defensive effort of the season, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. This is a loaded team that returns six of the top nine players from last year’s group that won 27 games and lost to Houston in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. UAB has one of the best backcourts in the nation with high-scoring returning guard Jelly Walker now joined by LSU transfer Eric Gaines. They return home where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +31.2 points. They are nailing 50.9% of their shots at home with a 37.6% clip from behind the arc — and that is translating into 93.8 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 36.6% shooting on their home court which results in 62.6 PPG. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on their home court. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after a loss on the road. Covering 16 or so points is a difficult challenge — but UAB plays a style that produces blowouts against inferior competition. They play at a blistering pace which is the 4th quickest in the nation. They force turnovers in 20.5% of their opponent’s possessions (#91st in the nation) with four players in the top-80 percentile in steal rate — and the Gamecocks turn the ball over in 20.2% of their possessions, ranking 239th in the nation. They also crash the glass by pulling down 36.2% of their missed shots — and South Carolina allows their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 183rd in the nation. The Gamecocks are rebuilding after firing head coach Frank Martin in the offseason after an 18-13 record and what they considered a disappointing 8th-place finish in the SEC. Only 15.4% of the minutes return from that team — and while two starters are back, they combined for under 25 minutes per game between them. The new head coach is Lamont Paris who built a strong program at Chattanooga. He brought in a handful of transfer players and recruited five-star G.G. Jackson to the school — and while Jackson oozes with potential, he is still only 17 years old. South Carolina upset Clemson early in the season — but they have lost to Colorado State, Davidson, Furman, and George Washington. They beat an overmatched Presbyterian team while shooting a season-high 49.1% from the field — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. But they allowed the Blue Hose to make 52.2% of their shots which was the fourth opponent of theirs this season that made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams who are winning 60% or more of their games on their home court. In their six road games, South Carolina has lost four times with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only making 39.4% of their shots which is generating just 61.7 PPG. They allow their opponents to nail 49.8% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: The real question for this game seems to be what UAB’s winning margin will be. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a double-digit underdog — and the Blazers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when laying 10 or more points. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the UAB Blazers (638) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (637). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards  — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will bhe playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Washington Wizards (526). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-13) has lost two straight -- and four of their last five contests — after their 115-110 loss at Miami as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Washington (11-15) has lost five in a row — and eight of their last nine contests — after a 121-111 loss at Indiana as a 4-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Clippers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while this is their fourth game since Monday, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing for the fourth time in seven days. The Clippers have Kawhi Leonard back on the court and reunited with Paul George — yet the team is not playing hard on the defensive end of the court. In their last five games (with Leonard back for the last three), they are allowing their opponents to nail 49.3% of their shots which is translating into 119.2 Points-Per-Game. They complete their four-game road trip having played 6 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record a home. Los Angeles has also played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Washington has allowed three straight opponents to make at least 50% of their shots after the Pacers made 50.6% of their shots last night. The Wizards have allowed their last three opponents to hit 48.7% of their shots which has resulted in them giving up 119.2 PPG during that span. The Over is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Washington has also played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. They are undermanned right now with several injuries including Bradley Beal and Will Barton being out tonight. They return home where they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Wizards have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 25 of their last 34 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Washington. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Washington Wizards (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-1) has won six games in a row after their 68-64 win against Stanford as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. SMU (3-5) has lost two games in a row after a 69-68 upset loss to Jackson State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win including four straight Unders going into this game. They have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Arizona State has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight contests. Head coach Bobby Hurley has his team playing outstanding defense. They rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and only one of their opponents has made more than 39.7% of their shots against them. They rank 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 38.9% — and the 24.4% shooting from behind the arc and the 40.2% shooting inside the arc by their opponents are both the 6th best cards in the nation. Their 5.8 blocks per game are 14th in the nation. On the road, they are holding their opponents to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in just 61.7 Points-Per-Game But Arizona State is making only 41.8% of their shots on the road which is translating into 69.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. The Sun Devils are not a good outside shooting team as they make only 29.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 312th in the nation. They rely on getting to the charity stripe given their free-throw rate which is 28th in the nation — but the whistles from the referees are not always as accommodating when playing in a hostile environment for just the third time this season. Arizona State has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. SMU has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mustangs can struggle to score points with only Zhuric Phelps and Zach Nutall averaging more than 9 PPG. SMU ranks 320th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. They struggle with their shooting everywhere on the court — they rank 299th in the nation with a 29.5% shooting percentage behind the arc and 291st in the country with a 45.7% mark inside the arc. SMU is making only 40.0% of their shots which results in just 67.0 PPG. But the Mustangs are a solid defensive team that ranks 108th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their guests to 39.4% shooting and 64.3 PPG when playing at home. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 27-8-1 in Arizona State’s last 36 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-9) has lost two in a row after their 121-106 loss at New Orleans as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (12-11) has won three of their last four games after their 130-111 win against Phoenix as a 3-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver made 50.6% of their shots on Sunday which was actually the lowest shooting percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets rank 5th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games at home after shooting 50% or better from the field in at least three straight games. Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss. They are banged up a bit with Michael Porter out and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope along with Jeff Green questionable with injuries — but they are scoring at a 118.1 points per 100 possession rate without Porter on the court this year. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Dallas held the Suns to just 43.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games off a win at home. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 125 or more points in their last contest. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will be looking to avenge a 98-97 upset loss at home to the Nuggets as a 10-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss where they were laying 7 or more points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Month is with the Denver Nuggets (552) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts managed only 290 yards of offense against the Steelers. They have not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games and seven of their last nine contests. They have not scored more than 21 points in ten of their 12 games. They are averaging only 15.8 Points-Per-game on the season — and in their five games on the road, they are scoring just 11.7 PPG and averaging 311.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 4 straight Unders when playing on a short week after a game on Monday. And while the Colts endured a -2 net turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range including 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in that range. Indianapolis has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 42 games played in December, 30 of these games finished Under the Total. Dallas has the top-ranked defense using the DVOA analytics. They have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less with four of their opponents failing to score more than 10 points. They lead the NFL in sacks which likely spells a nightmare for the immobile statue that is the aging Matt Ryan tonight. They held the Giants to just 300 total yards in their Thanksgiving game. They outgained New York by +130 net yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Giants — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 261 yards in the win — but Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 16.8 PPG and 313.5 total YPG — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (321) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-2)  had their two-game winning streak end in a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. North Carolina (9-3) has lost two straight games after getting upset for the second-straight time in a 30-27 loss to North Carolina State in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have scored 30 or more points in three straight games and ten of their 13 contests this season. But their defense let them down last week against the Gamecocks as they surrendered 414 total yards. Clemson has given up 28 or more points in four of their games this season — they can be exposed. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they did go into halftime with a 23-14 lead, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 20 points in the first half of their last game. Running back Will Shipley only ran the ball 15 times last week despite averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Carry — expect a heavy load from Shipley tonight against this Tar Heels defense that allows 170 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Shipley averages 5.8 YPC — and he has 35 gains of 10 or more yards this season. Quarterback D.J. Uigalelei has been a disappointment this year — but he is at his most dangerous against defenses like North Carolina that give up big plays. Uigalelei has passes classified as Big Throws 22 times this season with 20 or more air yards — and the Tar Heels rank 109th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Wake Forest’s Sam Hartmann averaged 10.3 Yards-Per-Attempt against North Carolina earlier this year. Clemson running the football and then dropping long passes should generate plenty of points — they rank 19th in Rush Success Rate and 26th in Line Yards. They gained 237 rushing yards on the ground last week — and they have played 4 straight Overs the Total after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have played two straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. The Tigers’ defense is vulnerable to giving up big plays — they rank 63rd in Explosiveness Allowed. North Carolina averages 4.75 Points-Per-Drive inside the opponent's 40-yard line which is the 4th-best mark in the nation. Quarterback Drake Maye ranks 4th in the country by Pro Football Focus with a passing grade of 91.1. On passes of 10 or more air yards, Maye has 40 passes classified as “Big Time” — and his PFF passing grade rises to 92. He leads an offense that has scored 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games. And in their six games away from home, the Tar Heels score 38.3 Points-Per-Game and generate 513.7 Yards-Per-Game. But this porous North Carolina defense gives up 35.0 PPG and 510.0 YPG in those six road games. They have given up at least 21 points in all but one of their games. The Tar Heels have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss to an ACC rival by seven points or less. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Back to that defense — the Tar Heels rank 112th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Play. They rank 120th in Opponent Success Rate. They have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t expect many field goals in this game — Clemson ranks 24th in the nation Finishing Drive Rate while North Carolina ranks 4th in that metric (and this dynamic becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy since both coaches know this). The Tigers have played 6 straight Overs on a neutral field with the Total set at 63 or higher — and North Carolina has played 4 straight Overs on a neutral field. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (321) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-4) has won seven games in a row after their 30-0 win against Wyoming as a 14-point favorite last Friday. Boise State (9-3) has won three in a row — and seven of their last eight — after their 42-23 victory against Utah State as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State’s numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt given the midseason injury to senior quarterback Jake Haener. The gunslinger will be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft this spring. In the seven games he finished this year, he averaged 330.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. For the year, he completed 73.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. Even without Haener under center all season, the Bulldogs ranked 15th in the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they were top 25 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. They scored 30.9 Points-Per-Game and generated 407.0 Yards-Per-Game. They should continue off the momentum they have established since Haener returned to action. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after winning three or more conference games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. Fresno State has a good defense that gives up only 20.8 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by double-digits. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Broncos' season turned around after a 2-2 start when offensive coordinator Tim Plough was replaced by former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and veteran offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Freshman Taylor Green took over under center — and he led the team to a 6-1 record. While Green offers a running threat, he is not as dynamic as a passer as he averages only 196.9 passing YPG. He led an offense that averaged 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating 6.75 or YPP in their last game. Boise State gets to host this game on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-3) rides a three-game winning streak after their 47-27 win against Kansas as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (12-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 62-14 victory against Iowa State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINT(S): I suspect the bubble bursts for the Horned Frogs who have been riding a wave of good fortune this season. TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. They have won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They enjoy a +10 net turnover margin on the year — and they have only committed two turnovers in their last four games. Now this team faces the pressure of needing the win to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. Do the Horned Frogs still make the playoff with a loss this afternoon? Who knows what this (crooked) committee will do? Before one says, “of course, they do, the one-loss teams are in!” — keep in mind that TCU would be at least a touchdown underdog on a neutral field against both Ohio State and Alabama. The committee faces an existential crisis regarding how they justify their TV show (which promotes their later televised games involving the ranked teams, always positioned for the game to represent a de-facto playoff game). They may decide to dodge the Ohio State versus Alabama question by screwing the Big 12 team — and the analytics will defend that position. The uncertainty adds pressure — and, frankly, the fact that TCU may think they will still can back may only compound matters. I don’t like it. As it is, the Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They only outgained the Cyclones last week by +47 net yards — they benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. But now they go on the road where they are only outgaining their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game while allowing their opponents to generate 415.7 net YPG. We saw last night with USC how teams with shaky defenses perform under pressure in neutral environments against physical opponents. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field when favored by seven points or less. Kansas State gets to play the role of the spoiler — and they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory against a Big 12 opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Wildcats generated 7.16 Yards-Per-Play against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last contest. Kansas State averaged 6.33 YPP in their previous game at West Virginia — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Spencer Howard will be the starting quarterback in this game with Adrian Martinez still not 100%.   What Howard lacks in matching Martinez’s rushing ability, he makes up for in offering a vertical passing threat. Howard has 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions under key situations this season. In his last four starts for the Wildcats, he is leading an offense that generates 6.2 YPP — and Kansas State has outscored their opponents by an average score of 44-15. Martinez should be available as a backup — and he may get to play a few special packages that emphasize his running ability. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 38-28 loss at TCU on October 22nd in a game where Martinez got injured in the contest and then Howard got banged up coming in relief which neutralized his effectiveness. The Wildcats held a 28-10 second-quarter lead before Howard got injured and they did not score the rest of the way. But Kansas State has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Horned Frogs. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Toledo (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 20-14 upset loss at Western Michigan as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday. Ohio (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 38-14 win against Bowling Green as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 22nd. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo limps into the MAC Championship Game — but keep in mind that they had clinched their spot in this game for weeks. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback with starter DeQuan Finn dealing with upper body and ankle injuries and backup Tucker Gleason hampered by an injury to his non-throwing hand. But Finn did start last week before getting pulled after throwing two interceptions. Expect Finn to play better. This is a step-up game for the Rockets who were projected as the favorites to win the conference title this year. Seventh-year head coach Jason Candle needs to bring this one home with rumblings getting louder in the Toledo fan base that his top-rated conference recruiting classes in five of the last six years should have produced more than one championship. The Rockets’ victory today should start with the play of their defense. They rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 11th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. They held the Broncos to just 188 total yards but lost that game because of a -3 net turnover margin. Toledo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. The offensive effort last week was a disappointment — but they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. Ohio has an even more dire situation at quarterback after Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Rourke posted a raw QBR of 81 which was the second-best mark of all quarterbacks playing for a Group of Five teams. The Bobcats experience a big drop-off in play with backup quarterback C.J. Harris who completed only 10 of 21 passes for 196 yards last week. While Harris does offer the team a dual-threat rushing option, now Toledo has game tape on how Ohio wants to deploy him. Not much was expected of this Bobcats team that was 3-9 last year in the first season under head coach Tim Ahlin. But the Bobcats have lived on an opportunistic defense that has forced 24 turnovers this year. However, it is difficult to continue to rely on winning the turnover battle as Ohio has a +13 net turnover margin this season. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The takeaways are obscuring the fact that the Bobcats are getting outgained in yardage this season. When playing away from home, Ohio is getting outscored by -4.5 net Points-Per-Game and outgained by -77.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has pulled off four upset wins this year — but one of those upsets was not at home against the Rockets earlier this year when they got beat by a 35-23 score. The Bobcats rank 113th in the nation in  Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they give up 441.8 total YPG. Toledo has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow 425 or more YPG. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Blowout of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). THE SITUATION: Akron (2-9) snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 44-12 upset win at Northern Illinois as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday. Buffalo (5-6) has lost three in a row after a 30-27 loss in overtime to Kent State as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game got rescheduled after the blizzard in Buffalo two weeks ago postponed this contest originally planned for November 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls need to end their recent slide and get the victory this afternoon to become bowl eligible — so head coach Maurice Linguist’s team will be motivated to play well. Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home to a conference rival. And while that game finished Over the 50.5-point Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in ten straight games while averaging 29.5 Points-Per-Game on the season. But stopping their opponent has been an issue as they are allowing 28.5 PPG and 404.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home at UB Stadium — and they have surrendered 35.3 PPG and 422.0 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has disappointed in their first year under head coach Joe Moorhead — but he will want to end the season on a high note. D.J. Irons was the starting quarterback for most of the season before missing the last two because of injury. Junior Jeff Undercuffler stepped up last week by completing 21 of 32 passes for 312 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Zips offense to 512 total yards. Look for the offensive fireworks to continue as Akron has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Zips have scored 72 combined points in their last two games — and they have reached at least 27 points in five of their last seven games. Despite their nine losses, Akron has lost four of their last seven games by one possession. But their defense had surrendered at least 27 points in six straight games before their surprising performance against the Huskies last week. The Zips have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Akron has allowed 36 PPG against FBS opponents — and they let their opponents generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which are both outside the top 115 marks in the nation. When playing on the road, the Zips give up 39.3 PPG and 461.7 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Akron has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog — and Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving. New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo held the Lions to just 326 yards in the victory last week. They will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury — but their defense is getting healthier with defensive ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa along with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds full participants in practice this week. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while Buffalo has seen at least 53 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two or more games with 50 or more combined points scored. The Bills have averaged 414.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo scores 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders as a road favorite. Buffalo’s defense remains elite even without Miller — they rank 3rd in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have held their last three opponents to 310.0 YPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they gained 409 total yards against the Vikings, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England only gained 45 yards on the ground in that game — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots' defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank just 25th in the NFL in DVOA on offense — ranking 24th with their running game and 22nd with their passing game. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without running back Damien Harris and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. They are only generating 303.0 YPG in their last three games. New England has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots will want to slow this game down by running the football and likely playing two high safeties to dare the Bills to run the football and get out of their passing attack. New England has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against rivals from the AFC. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (37) and the Chicago Blackhawks (38). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (12-10-0) has won two in a row after their 4-3 win against Florida on Monday. Chicago (6-11-4) has lost seven in a row after their 7-2 win against Winnipeg on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blackhawks started the season getting better than expected results with a roster that many considered the worst in the league. But hard work can only go so far — and the injury to defenseman Seth Jones has left the team significantly undermanned on their blue line. Chicago is allowing 5.0 goals-per-game in their last five games. The Blackhawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals at home. Additionally, Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss at home by three or more goals — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Blackhawks stay at home where they are giving up 3.8 goals-per-game. They have played 31 of their last 49 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Arvid Soderblom is between the pipes tonight. While he has a .918 save percentage in three starts on the road, his save percentage is .903 save percentage in five games (four starts) at home. Chicago has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Edmonton (12-10-0) has seen the Over go 3-1-2 in their last 6 games after a win — and they have played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a win at home. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after scoring four or more goals in a victory at home. The Oilers have scored eight combined goals in their last two games — and they have played 33 of their last 50 games Over the Total after scoring at least three goals in two straight contests. Edmonton is scoring 3.4 goals-per-game led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — but the defensive efforts from those superstar forwards have been less than desired this year which has played a role in them allowing 3.5 goals-per-game. Stuart Skinner is their goaltender tonight. He has a 2.62 Goals-Against-Average and a .921 save percentage at home — but those numbers decline to a 3.02 GAA and a .917 save percentage on the road. And in his seven starts this month, Skinner has a 3.47 GAA and a .899 save percentage. The Oilers have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Blackhawks will be looking to avenge a 6-5 loss at home to Edmonton on October 27th — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Over the Total -- and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in Chicago. 25* NHL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (37) and the Chicago Blackhawks (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Portland Trail Blazers (526). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-9) has won four of their last six games after their 114-100 upset win against Indiana as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Portland (11-9) has lost five of their last six games after a 111-97 loss at Brooklyn as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers will be undermanned tonight with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and John Wall all out due to various ailments. As it is, Los Angeles ranks 29th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are also 2nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (but playing without George does not help their cause on that end of the court). The Clippers have played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Portland is playing with Damian Lillard who is dealing with a calf injury. The Trail Blazers return home for one game after being on the road since November 20th. The Under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 home games after being on the road for seven or more days. The Under is 18-7-2 in Portland’s last 27 games at home — and the Under is 5-1-2 in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing against each other in Portland. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (525) and the Portland Trail Blazers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers managed to generate just 271 yards against the Titans last week. The struggling Green Bay offense has not scored more than 17 points in three of their last four games — and they have not scored more than 22 points in six of their last seven games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has conceded that he is playing with a broken thumb — but while that may explain how his once immaculate delivery has devolved into a wrist flick motion, his problems go way beyond this season. Even a broken thumb does not explain his bad decision-making — and he continues to struggle to develop chemistry with his wide receiving corps in the Brave New World without Davante Adams. I do not understand why this team simply does not run the ball more (although the deteriorating offensive line has not always made that easy — but they abandon the run too quickly: as Michigan demonstrated yesterday versus Ohio State, sometimes the ground game does not emerge until the second half). After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed Tennessee to generate 6.69 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after giving up 6.69 YPP in their last contest. They go on the road where they are only scoring 15.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played all 3 games on the road as an underdog this season Under the Total. Philadelphia has held five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The Colts gained only 284 total yards against them last week. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philly has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enduring a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. The Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. But this Philly defense remains elite and is now bolstered on the interior of their defensive line with the acquisitions of Ndamukong Suh and Lineal Joseph. They hold their guests to 18.0 PPG and 285.6 total YPG when playing at home. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). THE SITUATION: UNLV (4-7) lost for the sixth time in a row after a 31-25 upset loss at Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Nevada (2-9) has lost nine games in a row after a 41-14 loss to Fresno State as a 22-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: UNLV got caught traveling away from the mainland to play in Honolulu last week. They outgained the Rainbow Warriors by a 427 to 369 margin in yards in that game but still lost the game. The Rebels did get a good game out of quarterback Doug Brumfield who completed 23 of 37 passes for 288 yards while adding 55 more yards on the ground. UNLV has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rebels are a better team than their record indicates. Brumfield missed two games this season due to injury — and they averaged just 7.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But when Brumfield is healthy and under center, they are scoring 30.0 PPG. They lost all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They played tough against quality competition a 4-point loss to San Diego State, a 7-point loss to Fresno State, and a 6-point loss at California. They also scored 21 points on the road in South Bend against Notre Dame. Returning home to Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas strip, UNLV is scoring 35.6 PPG and generating 411.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Nevada started the season with two straight wins — but they are reeling now after getting scoring only 17 combined points and giving up 82 points to Boise State and Fresno State in their last two contests. Their average losing margin in their nine-game losing streak has been by three touchdowns. They lost to Incarnate Word out of the FCS by 14 points. At this point of the season, it appears that the Wolf Pack are low on morale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Nevada gave up 524 yards last week to the Bulldogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Nate Cox is completing only 51% of his passes and averaging just 5.7 yards-per-attempt. They go back on the road where they are gaining only 244.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV will be motivated to end their season on a high note while avenging a 51-20 loss at Nevada to their in-state rival last week. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-1) has won two games in a row after their 40-10 win against Miami (FL) as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (7-4) comes off their 63-38 upset win against Tennessee as a 23.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks come off their Super Bowl as they rebounded from a 38-6 shellacking to Florida by shocking a Volunteers team that was still dreaming of a possible College Playoff berth before getting creamed by 25 points. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler had thrown only eight touchdown passes all season before tossing six last week — but I suspect that speaks more about the state of the wretched Tennessee pass defense than it does about a sudden jump in quality in the Gamecocks passing attack. Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home against an SEC rival. And in their last 11 games after a point spread victory, they are then 1-9-1 ATS. They go back on the road where are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 492.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to good rushing attacks — they rank 128th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 121st in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Led by running back Will Shipley, Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in the FBS in Line Yards. After suffering their lone loss of the season to Notre Dame, the Tigers have scored 71 combined points in their last two games while averaging 443 YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 50 of their last 76 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Clemson defense remains stout as always — they held the Hurricanes to just 98 yards last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate while ranking 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. They also rank 4th in Havoc Rate — and South Carolina ranks 128th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed. The Tigers stay at home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +18.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +137.0 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson needs to put up a big number for style points with the playoff committee that is not enamored with them right now — and they need to have their offense clicking before playing the suspect North Carolina defense in the ACC Championship Game next week. The Tigers’ playoff chances remain undervalued since with their strong possibility of only having one loss by the end of next week. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in November. The Gamecocks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Clemson. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). THE SITUATION: Indiana (10-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 115-101 loss to Minnesota as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Brooklyn (9-10) has won three of their last four games after a 112-98 victory as a 2.5-point favorite at Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana played their worst game of the season on Wednesday. Their 38.5% shooting percentage was the worst offensive effort of the season. They allowed the Timberwolves to make 61.0% of their shots in that game which was the worst defensive performance of the new season. But Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. While many expected this team to tank after beginning a rebuild when they traded Domantas Sabonis midseason last year, they are playing well. They may have the Rookie of the Year in Benedict Mathurin who they drafted as the sixth pick in the NBA draft from Arizona. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a dynamic floor general and scorer for the team. And while they may still deal Myles Turner and Buddy Hield for draft assets before the trade deadline, those are two nice complementary players in the meantime. Indiana has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning two of their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games this month. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The laptops like them a lot as they rank 11th in the league in net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. They rank 8th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and now they host a Nets team that can lack effort on defense and ranks 19th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacramento scored 153 points against them earlier this month. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a divisional rival — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, Brooklyn is 12-31-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. This team is playing better under new head coach Jacques Vaughn — and Ben Simmons’ productivity has improved. But Simmons is still an issue for the team since he can lack aggressiveness on offense to avoid getting fouled — and the team lacks interior size on defense. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games with the Total set in the 230s. And in their last 40 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana looks to avenge a 116-109 loss in Brooklyn to the Nets on October 31st — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when they have the opportunity for revenge. The Nets were 7.5-point favorites in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Pacers. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (534) plus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (533). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: New York (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-18 upset loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 40-3 win at Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants are decimated with injuries — especially on the offensive line. They will be without three starters and a rotational player with Evan Neal, Shane Lemieux, Jon Feliciano, and Joshua Ezeudo all declared out today. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable as well with an illness — but he did take part in limited practice yesterday. New York is also thin at wide receiver with Wan’Dale Robinson out with an injury — and Sterling Shepard already out the season, Kadarius Toney traded to Kansas City, and Kenny Golladay being in the perpetual doghouse. New York is scoring only 18.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. The Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Under is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York did generate 413 yards last week — but the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas held the Vikings to just 183 total yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They limited Minnesota to just 110 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Cowboys have an elite defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in the DVOA rankings at Football Outsiders. They have held seven of their ten opponents to less than 20 points — and they lead the league with 42 sacks. Daniel Jones is going to have a very difficult time passing the ball with his banged-up offensive line — and Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can safely stack the box to stop Saquon Barkley given the limitations the Giants will have in the passing game. The Cowboys generated 458 yards of offense last week with Dak Prescott passing for 276 yards. But Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while Dallas has scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games, they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of Dallas’ 23-16 victory in New York as a 1-point underdog on September 26th. The Giants have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders when avenging a same-season loss by seven points or less. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing 250 or more yards in two straight games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers lead the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. They held the Chargers to just 51 rushing yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 90 or fewer rushing yards. The 49ers did rush for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. But, frankly, despite their offense loaded with weapons with skill position players getting healthy and the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, too often head coach Kyle Shanahan dials up gimmicky plays when simple plays do the trick. The Niners have not scored more than 23 points in three of their last four games. Some of that can be explained by Shanahan’s commitment to running the football — and they have held their last two opponents scoreless in the second half. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. Arizona has only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Cardinals are riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit. They hold their opponents to only 295.4 YPG when playing on the road. Arizona has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. Kansas City has played two straight Unders — but they have then played  5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City and Los Angeles are completing 65.5% and 66.4% of their passes this season. The Chiefs have played 6 straight Overs on the road against opponents that are completing 64% or more of their passes — and the Chargers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents that are completing 66.4% or more of their passes. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (4-6) has lost six of their last seven games after a 20-14 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Texas Tech (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak in a 43-28 win against Kansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State got upset for the third time this season with their loss to the Cowboys last week. It was also their fifth loss by one scoring possession. The Cyclones are still outscoring their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +89.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They remain motivated to win their remaining two games to become bowl eligible. Iowa State should play hard for head coach Matt Campbell as they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers struggled by throwing three interceptions last week — but the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after committing at least three turnovers. Iowa State has played six straight Unders due to the strength of their defense — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing at least four straight Unders. The Cyclones are allowing only 16.7 PPG and 280.8 total YPG. They rank 2nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 5th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive. They return home for Senior Night where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 PPG and outgaining them by +81.5 net YPG. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 home games after losing three of their last four contests. And while the Cyclones have allowed 57 and 76 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Texas Tech got outgained by 25 yards despite their 15-point victory. But the Red Raiders are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against a Big 12 rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Texas Tech will likely have to call on backup quarterback Tyler Shough to make his third start this season with Behren Morton questionable with an ankle injury. He will have to carry a defense that surrendered 525 yards last week to the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders have given up 35.7 PPG and 465.3 YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are winless in four contests while getting outscored by -10.5 net PPG. They only score 24.3 PPG on the road this season. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State will have the additional motivation of revenge after getting upset in Lubbock last season by a 41-38 score as a 12.5-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are still only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Cyclones. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). THE SITUATION: Baylor (6-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 upset loss at home to Kansas State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. TCU (10-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 upset win at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Longhorns last week but got stung by the Horned Frogs playing their best defensive game of the season. TCU held Texas to just 199 total yards and made quarterback Quinn Ewers look like a freshman (and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian as a consistent underachiever in big games). But this Horned Frogs' defense remains a concern. They had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before last week. They rank 113rd in Opponent Finishing Drive — and they are just 113th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They stay on the road where they are giving up 398.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Horned Frogs clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game in two weeks — but they still have tons of pressure on them since they control their fate to make the College Football Playoff. This is a prime letdown spot after the upset win against Texas. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. And while they held the Longhorns scoreless in the first half, they have then failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Quarterback Max Duggan completed 19 of his 29 passes but for only 124 passing yards. TCU managed just 283 total yards of offense despite being on offense for 37:22 minutes of that game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not passing for more than 125 yards in their last contest. Duggan is playing through a calf injury that is impacting his mobility and completely taking away his scrambling abilities. Baylor’s three points and 103 rushing yards were both their lowest marks in those areas since 2020. The defense got caught unprepared for the Wildcats' passing attack after an injury forced Adrian Martinez out of the game early for Will Howard who offers Kansas State a passing threat (despite lacking Martinez’s mobility). Overall, it was just a very flat effort from this Baylor team on both sides of the football. But head coach Dave Aranda has been effective in getting his team ready to play after an underwhelming effort. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home at Waco for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.4 net PPG and outgaining them by +139.4 net YPG. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. And while they did not force a turnover last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. The Bears and quarterback Blake Shapen have been inconsistent this season. They have been upset three times this season by Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State last week. But they have pulled off upsets against Oklahoma and Iowa State. Shapen should play better after throwing two interceptions last week. His turnover-worthy plays are cut in half when he does not face pressure. He should have plenty of time to find open receivers given the suspect TCU pass rush — and the Bears rank 19th in the nation in pass blocking. Baylor also ranks 20th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate — and the Horned Frogs are just 50th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Bears have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. I thought they would get exposed last week — but we got Sarked. While it is foolish to chase losses, we don’t want to ignore good opportunities simply because of the previous week’s results either. This is a good spot for Baylor who is dangerous in the role of the underdog — so let’s attack. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-0) has opened their season with three straight victories after an 86-56 win against Norfolk State as a 20.5-point favorite on Monday. Illinois (3-0) has won their first three contests after a 103-65 victory against Monmouth as a 28-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event tournament.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is the first true test for both these teams that have aspirations to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins return Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell from the group that finished 27-8 last season. But head coach Mick Cronin does replace Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard who combined to score 28.4 Points-Per-Game last season. UCLA nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday against Norfolk State which was the best shooting effort of their season. They allowed Norfolk State to make 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the year — so that end of the court will likely be an area of emphasis tonight for Cronin. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 55% of their shots. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 76 points in all three of their games, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Illinois replaces ten players from their team that finished 23-10 including their top five scorers headlined by Kofi Cockburn who departed early for the NBA. Head coach Brad Underwood hit the transfer window hard by bringing in Terrence Shannon, Jr. from Texas Tech and Matthew Mayer from Baylor. They have a talented point guard in Sky Clark but he is a freshman who will be tested for the first by an elite opponent. The Fighting Illini made 59.7% of their shots against Monmouth which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they allowed them to make 42.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season after holding their first two opponents to just 35.0% and 31.2% shooting. Illinois has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first game away from home for both teams. Both of these teams are struggling to make their free throws with UCLA making only 67.5% of their shots from the charity stripe and Illinois only hitting 64.6% of their freebies. The Illini have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Bruins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). THE SITUATION: Tulane (8-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss at home to Central Florida as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. SMU (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 41-23 win at South Florida as a 17.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane should still control their fate to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game if they win their final two games. They should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Green Wave did allow 468 total yards to the Knights on Saturday — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +16.5 Points-Per-Game and outgaining their guests by +113.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Tulane’s visitors are scoring only 18.7 PPG and generating 314.0 YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Head coach Willie Fritz is getting reliable play from quarterback Michael Pratt. Even in the loss to Central Florida, Pratt completed 23 of 39 passes for 236 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has 17 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season. He leads an offense that ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate. Tulane should have success against this Mustangs’ defense that ranks 117th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. SMU also ranks 119th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 77th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed overall. The Mustangs’ Achilles’ heel is their defense as they are allowing 32.6 PPG and 446.4 total YPG. The 23 points that the Bulls scored against them were the fewest points allowed this season — they had allowed at least 29 points in each of their previous nine contests. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two in a row against conference rivals. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game.  They have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after winning four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in SMU’s last 20 games in November, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane will be motivated to avenge a 55-26 loss at SMU last season as a 14-point favorite on October 21st. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (197) and the San Diego State Aztecs (198). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-2) has won two games in a row after a 28-16 victory against Colorado State as a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Diego State (5-4) has won three of their last four games after a 14-10 victory against UNLV as a 5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held their sixth opponent in their eight games to no more than 17 points in their victory against the Rams. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning a win against a conference rival. Additionally, San Jose State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. They did give up 468 yards in the game — but the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. They have played 8 straight Unders after winning multiple games in a row. The Spartans rank 17th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Success Rate. Led by Vilami Fehoko’s 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks, San Jose State ranks in the top ten in the nation in sacks and 13th in Havoc Rate. They hold their opponents to under 100 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they are giving up just 16.4 Points-Per-Game and 316.9 YPG. But while they score 27.1 PPG overall, that scoring average plummets by more than a touchdown to 19.7 PPG when playing on the road. The Spartans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. San Diego State has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Aztecs are once again stout on defense — they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. But they struggle to move the football as they are averaging just 19.6 PPG and 309.8 YPG. They have not scored more than 23 points in seven of their nine games. They rank 108th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate — and they are only 113th in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate. San Diego State has played twenty-two of their last twenty-nine games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest. They return home where they are scoring just 21.0 PPG — but they hold their guests to only 16.6 PPG. The Under is 40-19-1 in the Aztecs’ last 60 games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 13-2-1 in their last 16 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-4-1 in San Diego State’s last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and San Jose State has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (197) and the San Diego State Aztecs (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-27 win at Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (9-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 34-24 win against Texas Tech as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas has lost three games this season — and they are still laying a touchdown against an unbeaten Horned Frogs team that is currently fourth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Since 1979, there had been six teams with three or more losses who were listed as a favorite against a team with a 9-0 or better record — and none of those teams were laying more than a field goal. This game presents the fifth time in the College Football Playoff era that a top-five team was listed as an underdog against an opponent not ranked in the top ten. Why are the Longhorns favored? For starters, the laptops love them. They have played well in all their games, win or loss, including impressive performances in terms of efficiency against Alabama and Oklahoma. Their three losses were by a combined 11 points. They lead the nation by generating 7.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they are 7th in the FBS by scoring 3.2 Points-Per-Drive. They are led by running back Bijan Robinson who ran the ball 30 times for 209 yards last week against the Wildcats — and Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Longhorns generated 466 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while Texas gave up 329 passing yards to Kansas State, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. The Longhorns still have the better defense in this game — they have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their nine games this season (including the Crimson Tide). TCU sports a big-play offense that leads the nation with 13 touchdowns of 40 or more yards — but Texas has only allowed seven gains of 40 or more yards this season, ranking 3rd in the Big 12. The Longhorns also rank 9th in the nation in pass rush — and the Horned Frogs rank just 85th in the nation in pass blocking. After playing their last two games on the road, Texas returns home to Texas Memorial Stadium where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.6 net PPG. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range including five of these last six circumstances. TCU has been fortunate to play three opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their nine games after fourth quarter deficits. The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games. They rank 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives and 60th in Points Allowed Per Drive. And while Texas is vulnerable to good pass rushes by ranking 114th in the nation in Pass Blocking, TCU is just 109th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They go back on the road where they are giving up 27.3 PPG and 448.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. And while they allowed 157 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. Max Duggan has been quite efficient under center for this team, the senior suffered a calf injury two weeks ago in their game against West Virginia. In the last two weeks, Duggan has only rushed for 20 yards from designed running plays with his calf seeming to limit his mobility.

FINAL TAKE: TCU’s first-year head coach Sonny Dykes was notorious for the “Sonny swoons” in November in his previous stop at SMU. His Mustangs teams from 2019-2021 had a 21-3 straight-up record before November 1st but a 4-8 record after that date. With TCU controlling their destiny to the college football playoff, the pressure is on — and their bubble is at risk of bursting in this night game in Austin where ESPN College Game Day sets up shop this week. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (7-2) rebounded from their loss at Central Florida with a 20-10 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite last Saturday. East Carolina (6-3) has won three in a row after their 27-24 upset win at BYU as a 3-point underdog back on October 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati held the Midshipmen to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than three points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game —  and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bearcats have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They generated 6.64 Yards-Per-Play against Navy — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last contest. Cincinnati is 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG and an average net yardage differential of +117.3 net Yards-Per-Game. They are scoring 39.0 PPG at home with a 423.8 net YPG mark. Senior quarterback Ben Bryant completed 25 of 35 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The former backup to Desmond Ridder who transferred to Eastern Michigan to play for a year before returning to the Bearcats is finding his rhythm running the offense. He threw for 298 yards in the loss to the Knights two weeks ago. Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. East Carolina has pulled off two straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after a win on the road including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last five circumstances. They did rush for 244 yards against the Cougars last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Pirates have generated 6.74 YPP and 7.31 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. East Carolina has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games. They face a challenge from this Bearcats pass defense that ranks 20th in the nation in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Havoc Rate while leading the American Athletic Conference in sacks. The Pirates stay on the road where they are allowing 411.3 YPG. East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Furthermore, the Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a Friday night.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Bearcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at Cincinnati. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. This focus on running the football burns time off the clock and helps the Atlanta defense — they only allowed 336 total yards to the Justin Herbert-led offense. The Falcons rushed for 201 yards last week. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Falcons are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more YPG in their last three contests. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but they are only averaging 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks 10-13. They have also played 6 straight Unders playing on Thursday Night Football. Carolina only managed 228 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. Former Arizona Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks is the team’s interim head coach after Matt Rhule was fired on October 10th — and his teams have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home against conference rivals. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against NFC South divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 games between these teams when they are playing in Carolina. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (17) and the Winnipeg Jets (18). THE SITUATION: Dallas (8-3-1) has won three straight games after their 6-2 win at Edmonton on Saturday. Winnipeg (7-3-1) has won two straight games after a 4-0 shutout win against Chicago on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas has been dominant lately in their three-game winning streak. Not only have they scored at least five goals in each of those victories, but they have also held each of those opponents to just two goals in each of those contests. Their win on the road against the Oilers was preceded by a 7-2 win at Arizona. The Stars have played 39 of their last 55 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least three goals — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two in a row on the road. Dallas has scored at least three goals in four straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in four straight games. They have played 46 of their last 63 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals in three straight games. Additionally, the Under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road after winning three straight games. The Under is also 6-1-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Scott Wedgewood gets this fifth start on the road this season as the team’s goaltender. He has been solid with a 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage in those four starts away from home. The Under is 5-1-1 in Winnipeg’s last 7 games after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Under is also 6-0-2 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They stay at home where they are allowing only 1.4 Goals-Per-Game — and they have played 5 straight Unders on their home ice. Connor Hellebuyck has been sensational in the net so far this season. He owns a 2.09 GAA and a .936 save percentage this season with two shutouts among his nine starts. In his five starts at home, he sports a 1.19 GAA with a .959 save percentage — and both his shutouts were at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at Dallas back on October 17th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (17) and the Winnipeg Jets (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans, especially since running the football will burn the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Led by Henry’s 219 rushing yards last week with Willis as the starting quarterback, the Titans generated 354 total yards while having their offense on the field for 34:48 minutes of that game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Willis only passed 55 yards last week on 10 attempts — but the Titans have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. They held the Texans to just 43 rushing yards — and they have played 4 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. Tennessee has played four straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Under is 12-3-1 in Kansas City’s last 16 games after their bye week. Mahomes passed for 423 yards while leading an attack that generated 529 yards of offense. But the Chiefs have played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. And while Kansas City has passed for at least 265 yards in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in three straight games. The Chiefs return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 38 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points — and they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as a 10.5 to 14-point favorite. They have also played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I am not going to be surprised if the Chiefs exceed their 24 rush attempts per game average tonight — one way to neutralize the Titans’ rushing attack which wants to wear down your defense is to run the ball more yourself to fight back on the time of possession game. Kansas City is only averaging 25.7 Points-Per-Game at home this year with them playing more Unders. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 27-17 loss at Buffalo as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (1-6) has lost five games in a row after their 31-27 loss to Miami as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers may have finally embraced the approach on offense that should give them success moving forward in the second half against the Bills. Green Bay ran the ball in the second half of that game — and that helped them generate 398 yards of offense against a stout Buffalo defense. The Packers trailed at halftime by a 24-7 score — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing a game where they allowed at least 24 points in the first half. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. While the sputtering Packers’ offense has received most of the attention, their defense has been a disappointment as well. Green Bay ranks 22nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. They are giving up 25.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Surprisingly, the Packers' offense ranks 8th best in the league in Offensive DVOA. Nothing beats playing the Lions to help a team’s offensive numbers. Detroit is last in Defensive DVOA — and they are 30th against the run and last in the league against the pass using those analytics. They are giving up 32.1 PPG and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after four games in a row. They did gain 393 yards against the Dolphins last week — and quarterback Jared Goff completed 27 of 37 passes for 321 yards. Goff plays much better at home — Detroit averages 281 passing YPG. The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Detroit is scoring 35.8 PPG and generating 431.0 YPG at home at Ford Field. Detroit has been dealing with injuries — but they do get running back D’Andre Swift back for this game and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is back in the mix. But the Lions are surrendering 36.0 PPG and 470.5 YPG in their four home games. Detroit has played 20 of their last 27 games at home Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Lions have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two shootouts last season where 67 and 52 combined points were scored. Green Bay and Detroit have played 9 of their last 13 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing at Ford Field. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler. THE SITUATION: Houston (116-58) took a 3-2 lead in the World Series with their 3-2 victory on the road against the Phillies on Thursday. Philadelphia (98-80) has lost three of their last four games to reach the brink of elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Game — and they have won 13 of their last 15 games with a 10-2 mark in the postseason. The Astros have won 38 of their last 52 games after winning a game by two runs or less. They have won 30 of their last 42 games after a game where they did not score more nor allow more than three runs. They have won 44 of their last 59 games after not allowing more than two runs — and they have won 30 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. They return home where they have won 43 of their last 59 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games in the playoffs. Houston has also won 15 of their last 19 home games when listed as a money-line favorite priced from -100 to -150. Furthermore, the Astros have won 49 of their last 66 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 11 of their last 14 playoff games when leading in the series including all five of those circumstances this postseason. Valdez gets the start after allowing only one earned run in his last two starts in these playoffs. He has a 2-0 record this postseason with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in three starts. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his excellent form with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.18 and 2.24. With 62 2/3 innings in his 12 career postseason appearances, he should be ready for this moment. Houston has won 9 of their last 10 games with Valdez as their starting pitcher following two straight starts when he did not allow more than one earned run. The Astros have also won 20 of their last 25 games with Valdez pitching as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. The Phillies are hitting only .202 in their last seven games (including getting no-hit in Game Four) with a .208 On-Base Percentage. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games in Interleague play against left-handed starting pitchers. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and they have lost 10 of their last 16 games after playing three straight Unders. They have also lost 21 of their last 29 road games in Interleague play. Philly needed the day off after their bullpen pitched at least four innings of each of the three games played at Citizens Bank Field — but they have lost 7 of their last 11 games after a three-game stretch where their bullpen pitched at least four innings in each game. Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies despite a big drop in his velocity in his last start on Saturday in Game Two of the World Series. He got hit hard for five runs (four earned) in five innings. A velocity drop in a World Series game is a major red flag since he was pumping with adrenalin. The team fears that his loss of velocity is a result of perhaps coming back too soon from his arm injury in September. As it is, his xFIP of 3.72 in this postseason is below his standards. In his 29 regular season starts, Wheeler had a 12-7 record with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He was very tough to beat at home where he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 in 16 starts. But in his 13 starts on the road, he had a 3.84 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253. Philadelphia has lost 4 of their last 6 games with Wheeler pitching in Interleague play. Houston has won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a regular season WHIP of 1.10 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have lost 5 of their last 7 games when avenging two straight losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-20 victory in Jacksonville against Florida as a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (8-0) is undefeated this season after their 44-6 win against Kentucky as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the third meeting between the Associated Press number one and number two ranked teams in a regular season game since 2006. Only twice previously has the AP’s second-ranked team been an underdog of more than seven points. Tennessee is ranked second in the AP poll given their dynamic offense that Alabama was not able to slow down. But the Volunteers only beat a Gators team that Georgia just decimated by a 38-33 score. Tennessee needed overtime to beat a mediocre Pittsburgh team on the road earlier in the season. Now after signature wins at home against Florida and Alabama, the Volunteers look to continue their breakout season after not enjoying a ten-win season for over a decade. It may be difficult for this team to avoid getting their bubble burst now playing in a hostile environment. As it is, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And while they held the Wildcats to just 98 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in seven of their eight games this season - but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They go back on the road for just the third time this season where they have not been as dynamic on offense. Their 37.0 Points-Per-Game and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game in their two road games is impressive — but it is still -12.4 PPG and -93.6 YPG below their season averages. The canary in the coal mine may be the 27 points they were held to at Pittsburgh against the Pat Narduzzi-coached Panthers defense (that is not elite this season). Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have a good front seven that defends the run well and gets pressure on the quarterback. But the weakest unit in this game will be the Tennessee secondary which is more vulnerable after the season-ending injury to senior cornerback Warren Burrell. The Volunteers give up 301 passing YPG — and they rank 87th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They rank 55th in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating. They are 126th in the nation by allowing 33 pass plays of 10 or more yards. They also rank 80th in Yards Allowed Per Drive. They are giving up 385.5 YPG when on the road. Now they play the defending national champions who lead the nation's Passing Success Rate on both standard downs and passing downs. Led by sixth-year senior Stetson Bennett at quarterback, the Bulldogs lead the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they are 5th in the nation in Points-Per-Drive. Georgia also leads the nation by scoring on 97.87% of their drives inside the red zone. Bennett has the best tight end duo at his disposal in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington who have combined for 50 receptions and 879 yards. The Bulldogs have an emerging star at running back as well in sophomore Dijon Edwards who has averaged 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry with six touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Bulldogs have scored at least 39 points in six of their eight games. Georgia has not allowed more than 22 points in a game this season — and they have held five of their opponents to 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have the talent in the secondary to slow down the Volunteers' passing attack. Kelee Ringo is an elite man-to-man cover cornerback. Cornerbacks Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette often get the man-to-man assignments next to Ringo — and they have combined to allow only 12 receptions on 30 pass attempts with two interceptions. Furthermore, slot cornerback Javon Bullard and free safety Christopher Smith are the top-two graded defensive backs in man-to-man coverage skills with neither missing a tackle in the over 250 snaps they have played this season. Overall, Georgia is second in the nation by allowing 10.5 PPG — and they are giving up only 262.3 YPG. The sack rate is not nearly as high as it was last season — but defensive tackle Jalen Carter has played through injuries this season and may be ready to break out. Carter was widely considered the best player on the Bulldogs' defense last season. Georgia has looked vulnerable at times this year with listless efforts against Missouri and Kent State — but don’t forget the thorough 49-3 shellacking they gave Oregon to begin the season. I suspect the Bulldogs were simply flat in the underwhelming efforts earlier in the year. But they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win where they did not cover the point spread in as the favorite. And while they gained 555 total yards against the Gators, they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. They host this game at Sanford Stadium where they have won all four of their games by an average winning margin of +34.3 PPG. The Bulldogs' defense holds their guests to just 8.0 PPG and 204.5 YPG at home — and three of their four visitors were held to 10 points or less. They are also scoring 42.3 PPG and averaging 522.0 YPG at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Georgia ceiling is higher than what this Tennessee team is capable of — as demonstrated by their wins against Oregon this season as well as their double-digit victories against Michigan and Alabama in the playoffs last year. The Bulldogs crushed the Volunteers in Knoxville last year by a 41-17 score in a game where they registered six sacks and nine tackles for loss. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against Georgia. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (535) and the Boston Celtics (536). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-4) has won four of their last six games after a 106-88 win against Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston (4-3) has lost three of their last four games after a 114-113 upset loss at Cleveland on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls are playing better defense this season led by Alex Caruso and Javonte Green. They held the Hornets to just 39.1% shooting after limiting Brooklyn to only 99 points in their previous game. Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And in their last 13 games after playing a game where no more than 195 combined points were scored, the Bulls have played 8 of those games Under the Total. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Boston misses Robert Williams III who is out for a few months with an injury — but they are beginning to play better on defense. After holding Washington to 38.8% shooting, they limited the Cavaliers to just 42.0% shooting on Wednesday. Boston is still playing well in defending the rim even without Williams. They rank 4th in the NBA in preventing shots at the rim — and they are 9th in the league in opponent’s field goal percentage within four feet of the rim. The Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Boston will be looking to avenge a 120-102 loss at Chicago as a 5.5-point favorite on October 24th — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss on the road as the favorite. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (535) and the Boston Celtics (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). THE SITUATION: The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Steelers to just 300 total yards last week -- they are tied for 3rd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.1 total Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their seven games — and they have held five of their seven opponents to 17 points or less. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Eagles have played a decisive 57 of their last 81 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49-point range.  Houston only generated 71 yards before their final drive last week against Tennessee when they accumulated 90 of their 161 total yards in that game. Even at full strength, the Texans' offense is anemic as they score only 16.6 PPG and generate 288.7 YPG, ranking 29th and 31st in the league. The Offensive DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders rank Houston as the second-worst offense in the league. Quarterback Davis Mills has not registered a Quarterback Rating of 100 or higher in any of his starts this season. He will be missing his weapons in the passing game with Nico Collins out with a groin injury and Brandin Cooks seemingly uninterested in playing after hoping he would get moved at the trade deadline. He was dealing with an injury — but he has not practiced the last two days because of an issue listed as personal. This leaves Mills to have to rely mostly on dink-and-dunk check downs in the passing game. Rex Burkhead and Dameon Pierce have combined to catch 44 balls on 55 targets for 223 yards — but they are only averaging 5.1 yards-per-catch and 4.1 yards-per-attempt. The Texans managed only 118 net yards in the passing game last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where they did not pass for more than 150 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cincinnati defense may be the most underrated unit on both sides of the ball (and special teams) in the NFL. They held the Falcons to just 214 total yards in their victory last week. They are 5th in the league by holding their opponents to 5.92 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They are limiting their opponents to a Red Zone conversion rate of just 38.9% — and they have stopped six of the seven 4th down plays of their opponents. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL to not allow a touchdown in the second half. They have not allowed more than 19 points in four of their last five games. This may not be the best defense in the league — but they are right up there. They rank 5th in the NFL using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Bengals generated 537 total yards against the Falcons, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest (and now they will be without star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for four to six weeks given his hip injury). Cincinnati is struggling to run the football — they have only rushed for 75 and 78 yards in their last two games. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 100 yards in two straight games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games on the road against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Cleveland held the Ravens to only 254 yards in their loss last week. Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in each of their games in their current four-game losing streak. The Browns have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. Cleveland has played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total when they have lost four or more in a row — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing four or five of their last six games. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 8 straight Unders against AFC opponents. The Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games between these teams — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games played in Cleveland. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-3) has won three of their last four games after their 37-23 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (6-1) is on a four-game winning streak with their 23-17 upset win at Jacksonville last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two similar teams overachieving preseason expectations. Both teams coming off multiple upset victories and now have resumes that include them getting outgained in yardage on the season. I suspect it is the Giants’ bubble that gets burst with the challenging trip out west to play in Lumen Field and their “12th man” with the fans. All six of the Giants’ victories have been by one scoring possession including near-miracle finishes against Tennessee, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is doing a fantastic job in game managing — and he has Daniel Jones operating as a junior Josh Allen. But the offense lacks a vertical passing threat. After the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, the trade to Kadarius Toney earlier this week, and Kenny Golladay in the dog house, the Giants starting wide receivers are Darius Slayton and rookie slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie tight end Daniel Bollinger is out with an injury for this game. The Giants' offensive line will also be missing rookie right tackle, Evan Neal, along with Ben Bredesen. New York is last in the NFL with only seven pass plays of more than 20 yards — the second-lowest mark in the league is then 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. Despite defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s blitz-heavy clever schemes, the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metrics. They rank 30th in Run Defense using those metrics — and they are last in the league by allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Pass Defense ranks 26th in DVOA — and they have registered only one interception this season. The defensive woes start on first down where they are allowing 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. New York has registered three straight upsets with their last two wins against the Ravens and Jaguars finishing Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders. Seattle has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Seahawks may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker who offers the team an explosive weapon in the backfield since he took over as the bell-cow back after the injury to Rashaad Penny. Walker helped Seattle run for 214 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Geno Smith is poised to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as now a season-veteran who has learned his craft after playing behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson for years. Talent was never the issue for this former first-round draft pick. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done a great job with him. On first downs, Smith is completing 81.5% of his passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. On third downs needing at least seven yards, he has completed 17 of 22 passes (77.3%). After both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were on the injured list this week, it appears both will take the field today. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are middle of the road — ranking 19th in Defensive DVOA and 17th against the run (both marks higher than the Giants). Overall, Seattle ranks 7th in overall DVOA versus New York ranking 14th (for what that is worth).    

FINAL TAKE: Home field should make the difference in this game where the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFC Favorite of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.     

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after a 24-10 loss at Louisville as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (6-1) is on a three-game winning streak after their 38-35 win at Duke as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels return to action after their bye week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win against an ACC rival. North Carolina is 6th in the nation in Yards-Per-Play on offense after generating 536 total yards against the Blue Devils. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Tar Heels have averaged 7.4 and 6.6 YPP in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. But the problem with this team is their defense that allows 476.6 Yards-Per-Game. North Carolina ranks 120th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed and 110th in Opponent Pass Success Allowed. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Pittsburgh outgained the Cardinals last week by a 326 to 312 yardage margin but was done-in by a 59-yard fumble recovery defensive touchdown along with a -3 net turnover margin. But Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Kedon Slovis threw two interceptions and only generated 158 yards in the air — but the Panthers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Slovis has the opportunity to redeem himself against this Tar Heels pass defense that has allowed four of their six opponents to gain at least 245 yards in the air. Pittsburgh also has one of the best running backs in the country in senior Israel Abanikanda who has 959 rushing yards on 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. North Carolina allows opposing rushers to average 187 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Pat Narduzzi has an outstanding pass defense that should slow down the Tar Heels freshman quarterback Drake Mayo and this potent North Carolina passing attack. The Panthers rank 9th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate and 4th in the FBS in Opponent Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt. They gained experience facing an up-tempo offense when they played Tennessee — and they held the Volunteers to only three points in the second half in that game. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (3-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-16 win at Temple as a 14-point favorite last Friday. SMU (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after a narrow 29-27 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINT(S): Tulsa has been a very reliable underdog under head coach Philip Montgomery. Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog with four upset victories during that stretch — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games when getting the points. This team needs wins to become bowl eligible so this is a critical game for them this afternoon. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Led by Davis Brin at quarterback, the Golden Hurricane generated 454 yards of offense against the Owls — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. He has 16 touchdown passes this season while averaging 9.0 yards per completion.  Tulsa ranks 12th in the nation in Finishing Drives. They return home where they are scoring 37.7 Points-Per-Game while gaining 448 Yards-Per-Game — they are outscoring their guests by +10 PPG and outgaining them by +98.0 YPG. Tulsa is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. The Golden Hurricane are tough to pass against. They rank 21st in the nation by allowing only 165 passing YPG. They rank 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate — and their opponent completion percentage rate of 53% is 11th best in the FBS. SMU may be without Tanner Mordecai who left last week’s game against the Bearcats with an undisclosed injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If he does not play, we are in great shape since the Mustangs will have to turn to redshirt freshman Preston Stone under center. He completed only 6 of 15 passes for 74 yards in relief last week. SMU only gained 279 yards against Cincinnati while getting outgained by -100 net yards. Even if Mordecai plays and completes the game, the Mustangs are in a tough spot this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a narrow loss by six points or less. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. The Mustangs’ defense is vulnerable —  they are giving up 449 YPG on the road. They rank 98th in the nation by giving up 327 passing YPG. They also struggle against the run with opposing rushers generating 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 123rd in the FBS by giving up 205 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight meetings against the Golden Hurricane. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (75) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (76). THE SITUATION: Boston (7-1-0) has won four games in a row after their 5-1 win against Detroit last night. Columbus (3-5-0) has lost two of their last three games after a 6-3 loss to Arizona on Tuesday.

REASONS TO OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have scored at least five goals in five of their eight games this season despite not having Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy who started the season with injuries. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win by three or more goals. Additionally, Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game — and the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games played without a day of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. And in their last 12 games against Eastern Conference foes, the Over is 9-1-2. Columbus scored at least three goals in five straight games while averaging 4.0 Goals-Per-Game in those contests — and now they have Patrik Laine back after he was out with an injury. The Blue Jackets signed Johnny Gaudreau as a free agent in the offseason — he is averaging a point per game. But the defense remains a problem as they have allowed at least three goals in seven of their eight games. They allowed 35.25 shots per game last year, the second most in the league. They also gave up 3.62 Goals-Per-Game last season — and it has been worse this year with them giving up 4.1 Goals-Per-Game. Goalie Elvis Merzlikins has a 4.06 Goals-Against-Average and an .863 save percentage in five games after posting a 3.22 GAA and a .907 save percentage last season. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after playing a game where both teams scored at least three goals. The Over is 39-13-4 in their last 56 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 15-7-1 in the Blue Jackets’ last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (75) and the Columbus Blue Jackets (76). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay — and can they pick themselves off the mat at this point? They have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line remains a mess and the defensive backfield is banged up — but quarterback Tom Brady at least has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back. The team misses left guard Ali Marpet who retired in the offseason and linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul who signed with the Ravens as a free agent. The quality of the roster has declined since their Super Bowl victory in 2020. Brady seems distracted with his divorce and desire to attend Robert Kraft weddings. Despite their losing record, the analytics at Football Outsiders still rank Tampa Bay as the 8th-best team in their overall DVOA ratings. They are outgaining their opponents by +22.5 net Yards-Per-Game. I think much of what is going on is simply malaise. The team started strong — despite the injuries — with victories at Dallas and New Orleans. They lost a low-scoring game at home to Green Bay. They lost at home to Kansas City after falling behind the eight-ball early by fumbling the opening kickoff. They rebounded by beating a feisty Atlanta team at home, raising their record to 3-2. They then traveled to Pittsburgh with their rookie quarterback as a 9.5-point favorite — two days after Brady attends the Kraft wedding — and they play flat in a 16-10 upset loss. They stay on the road to play at Carolina as a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Panthers team who just traded Christian McCaffrey and who were using P.J. Walker at quarterback — and they lacked energy in that embarrassing loss. Evans dropped an early touchdown pass that might have changed the tone of that game. Now after two bad upset losses, I suspect the Buccaneers rally around each other on the short week with the challenge of hosting a good Ravens team. I like how Brady is responding to the adversity by showing positive leadership toward his teammates. He does not show dramatic signs of decline like some of the other older guard of quarterbacks. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 277.4 passing YPG. His eight touchdown passes are low — but he has only thrown one interception this season. The Tampa Bay passing attack ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. So, I think the Buccaneers can continue their team trend of covering the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting upset on the road as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Bucs have lost two of their three games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG. Baltimore is dealing with attrition as well with defensive end Calais Campbell out with an illness and several other starters questionable going into tonight. Perhaps left tackle Ronnie Stanley along with both starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters all play tonight — but how effective will they be with their injuries and can they play the entire game? The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite getting outgained by a 336 to 254 yardage margin. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home. Baltimore is only one of two teams to hold double-digit leads in all their games — but why have they blown those big leads in three of their games? They are getting outgained by -20.1 net YPG. The Ravens rank 23rd in run defense by DVOA — so perhaps this is the opponent that Tampa Bay can get Leonard Fournette going with their ground game. Baltimore has allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for at least 101 yards. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Look for Brady and company to find a way to win this critical game for them. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (46) versus the Edmonton Oilers (45). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (3-1-0) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Monday with a 4-0 loss at Winnipeg. Edmonton (3-3-0) has won two of their last three games after a 6-3 victory against Pittsburgh.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: After playing only two games in the first 11 days of the regular season, St. Louis will be playing for the third time in the last six days tonight. They should respond to being shutout in their first loss of the season as they have won 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by three or more goals. This is a team that scored 3.77 Goals-Per-Game last season with eight of the nine players who scored at least 20 goals last year back on the roster. The Blues reached the second round of the NHL playoffs last spring with goalie Jordan Binnington rebounded from a  subpar regular season — and so far he has maintained the form he regained in the postseason last year. Binnington has a 1.65 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in his three starts. He got the night off in the loss to the Jets. St. Louis has won 30 of their last 43 games against fellow Western Conference opponents. Edmonton has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring five or more goals in their last game. The Oilers made a splash in the offseason by signing goalie Jack Campbell from Toronto with the idea being that shoring up their defense was the final piece to help this team reach the Stanley Cup finals. But the inconsistent Campbell has struggled with a 3.62 GAA and a .895 save percentage in his five starts. Frankly, Edmonton needs help on their blue line as well — they are allowing 33.2 shots per game and 3.3 Goals-Per-Game. Binnington is getting the night off — so it will be back up Stuart Skinner between the pipes tonight. He has been effective with a 1.69 GAA and a .944 save percentage in two appearances including one start — but that is not a sample size I trust. In his 13 games/12 starts last year, he had a 2.62 GAA and a .913 save percentage. In his eight games/seven starts on the road, those numbers declined to a 2.63 GAA and a .903 save percentage last season. Edmonton has lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the Western Conference.

FINAL TAKE: The Oilers have lost 14 of their last 19 games in St. Louis against the Blues. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (46) versus the Edmonton Oilers (45). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (1-2) enters this game coming off a 134-124 loss at Memphis as a pick ‘em on Monday. Milwaukee (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after a 125-105 win against Houston as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets nailed 54% of their shots on Monday against the Grizzlies which was the best shooting effort this season. But they allowed Memphis to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance of the new campaign. Brooklyn has been a disaster on defense this season allowing their first three opponents to score 123.0 Points-Per-Game on 49.3% shooting — but I think much of this is explained by the level of intensity Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving bring to that end of the floor. These two played harder on defense in the playoffs against Boston last spring — and I expect a similar effort tonight in this nationally-televised game. As it is, the Nets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore,         Brooklyn has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. And while they have allowed their three opponents to make 48.8% of their shots, they have then played 42 of their last 64 games Under the Total after allowing three straight opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field including ten of those last fifteen circumstances. What is perhaps more troubling for the Nets is their lack of efficiency on the offensive end of the court with their starting five. In the 73 possessions that Durant, Irving, Ben Simmons, Royce O’Neal, and Nic Clayton have been on the court together, they are scoring only 97.3 points per 100 possessions. As the Celtics exposed in the playoffs last year, this offense can be slow, stagnant, and predictable when Durant and Irving are playing “your turn, my turn” with the basketball. Adding Simmons and Claxton into the mix adds two players who do not present any scoring threat — making that starting five even easier to defend. Brooklyn has played 39 of their last 62 games Under the Total with the number set at 220 or higher. The Under is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee shot a season-high 56.5% from the field in their win against the Rockets. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Bucks have also played 4 straight Unders when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home court. Milwaukee is playing without two of their best shooters with Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton out with injuries. Their absences have allowed for Wes Matthews and Jelon Carter to play more minutes, who are more effective on the defensive end. The Bucks lead the NBA by allowing their opponents to score 97.9 points per 100 possessions. But the offense ranks 25th in Adjusted Net Efficiency despite playing two bottom-ten defenses in terms of efficiency. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has his team playing at a slower pace as they rank 26th in tempo this season after ranking 4th in that metric last year. Brooklyn ranks 24th in the league in pace.

FINAL TAKE: Simmons defended Giannis Antetokounmpo in an interesting matchup — he held the Greek Freak to just 6 of 21 shooting in the preseason (for what that is worth). The Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 meetings against each other — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games in Milwaukee Under the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (545) and the Milwaukee Bucks (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-2) has lost two games in a row after a 124-115 loss at Indiana as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Washington (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 117-107 loss at Cleveland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has been a disappointment so far this season with two bad losses on the road after a sluggish effort at home against Orlando that they still pulled out by four points in their season-opener. But this should still be a feisty team that competes for one of the Play-In spots in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Pistons have one of the brightest young stars in the game in Cade Cunningham — and their two first-round draft picks last June, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duran, have looked good so far this season. The team added two veterans in the offseason in Bojan Bogdanovich and Nerlens Noel to complement these players. Detroit shot only 38.9% from the field on Saturday which was the worst shooting percentage for them so far this season. Head coach Duane Casey has done a nice job overseeing the offense of this young team — the Pistons lead in the league with 47.5% of their shots coming from the rim. But Detroit is only making 52.5% of these shots which is the lowest mark in the NBA. The Regression Gods should be making an appearance sooner than later for the Pistons and their shooting - and now they play a Wizards team that appears to have taken a step back on defense in the offseason. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. All three of the Pistons' games have finished Over the Total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing three straight Overs. Detroit was a reliable team on the road in the final few months of last season. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Washington has Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy and playing together for the first time since they acquired Porzingis last season. The Wizards brought in Will Barton and Monte Morris in the offseason — but the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope takes away one of their best defensive players from last season. Washington has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Washington returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They are just 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have struggled with their defensive play as they are allowing their opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — but the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (531) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the New England Patriots (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-4) has lost three in a row after their 12-7 loss to Washington as a 1-point underdog two Thursdays ago on October 13th. New England (3-3) is on a two-game winning streak after their 38-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While many observers pre-judged Bill Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia, those of us who were willing to just wait and evaluate the evidence as it develops (and Week One does not offer enough “evidence”) are now not handcuffed by the need to confirm prior assumptions. And guess what? The Patriots’ offense is starting to purr under Patricia’s guidance — even with rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. After only scoring 24 combined points in their first two games, New England has scored at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.8 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. They are getting it done by running the football behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL — they are generating 146.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four games. In their two home games, they are averaging 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. That level of productivity affords the Patriots the luxury of not having either of their young quarterbacks have to do too much in the passing game — but the team has passed for over 300 yards in two of their last four games. Belichick has yet to name a starter for tonight — but it was Mac Jones working with the first team on Saturday, so that is who I expect gets the nod. Frankly, it does not matter as both are capable in this offense. Zappe completed 24 of 34 passes for 309 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. While Buffalo and Kansas City get most of the attention with their dynamic passing attacks, it is teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, and the New York Giants who rank in the Football Outsiders' top ten in offensive DVOA with run-first philosophies on offense. New England generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry against the Browns after averaging 6.5 YPP the previous week against Detroit. The Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Over the Total at home after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in October. Chicago generated 392 yards in offense but were 0-for-3 in the Red Zone in their 5-point loss to the Commanders last week. But I am seeing improvement in second-year quarterback Justin Fields who is getting more aggressive with his legs to compensate for the lack of play-makers at wide receiver. Fields ran the ball 12 times for 88 yards against Washington while passing for 190 yards. It is too easy to criticize the Bears management for not getting Fields more weapons — these observers fail to appreciate that first-year general manager Ryan Poles inherited a salary-cap disaster courtesy of previous general manager Ryan Pace which will take two years to address. Fields is getting better after not being coached well last season under “offensive” head coach Matt Nagy. The Bears do have a solid running game with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. They ran for 238 yards against a very good Washington defensive line last week. In fact, Chicago has rushed for 149 or more yards in four of their last five games — and that level of productivity will help put Fields in a better position to succeed in the passing game. Teams can run on the Patriots' defense —  they rank 27th in the league in Rushing DVOA Defense according to the Football Outsiders analytics (for what that is worth). New England is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have given up at least 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. Chicago will likely find themselves trailing in this game — so they will probably pass the ball more in the second half against this Patriots team that gave up 258 passing yards last week. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Chicago held Washington to only 86 passing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Bears are allowing 25.3 PPG and 392.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings against each other Over the Total. While regulars know that I am quite willing to play Unders even when the number is at 40 or less, I find the number too low for this game given the Patriots’ offense and the likely game script that will follow. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the New England Patriots (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (473) and the Miami Dolphins (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 20-18 upset victory against Tampa Bay as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (3-3) has lost three in a row after their 24-16 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers had not scored more than 20 points in any of their games during their four-game losing streak — they were scoring just 13.5 Points-Per-Game during that losing streak. And they only gained 270 yards against the Buccaneers last week — so it is not as if they discovered the keys to the offensive engine with rookie Kenny Pickett under center. But after an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Buffalo the previous week, head coach Mike Tomlin demanded a better effort from his defense — and they responded by holding Tom Brady and company to just 304 total yards. Despite being without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh ranks a solid 15th in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders. But the offense remains a work in progress behind a          subpar offensive line. They rank 24th in Offensive DVOA — and they cannot get their ground game going to help out Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky as they rank second-to-last in Rushing DVOA. In their three games on the road, they are scoring 14.3 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 games after a straight-up win. And while they had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their upset win last week, they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Under is 45-19-1 in their last 65 games on the road — and the Under is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games in October. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol for this game — but every Dolphins game now holds the risk that if he takes one big shot from a defender, then he will be removed from the game given the scrutiny the league is under regarding the implementation of their player safety policies. He is playing behind a shaky offensive line. Dynamic wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both playing through injuries — and neither has scored a touchdown in four straight games. The Dolphins' defense did step up lack week by holding the Vikings to just 234 total yards. They gained 458 yards in the game but were held back by a -3 net turnover margin. Miami has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, Miami has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against AFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Steelers’ senior assistant coach and linebackers coach Brian Flores may be Tomlin’s secret weapon in this game since he was Tagovailoa’s head coach in Miami in his first two seasons. The inside reports suggest Flores was not a fan of Tua. The Pittsburgh defensive approach will be interesting to watch. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (473) and the Miami Dolphins (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2-1) has won three of their last four games after their 34-27 win against Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (3-2) returns from their bye week on a three-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Washington two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis gets back running back Jonathan Taylor for this game to offer some balance for this Colts offense — and that should put quarterback Matt Ryan in an even better position to succeed. After a slow start to the season behind a struggling offensive line, head coach Frank Reich and the veteran Super Bowl quarterback have put things together in the passing game. Ryan completed 42 of 58 passes for 389 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Jaguars. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has provided Ryan with a viable receiving option to complement Michael Pittman. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two of their last three games. And while they ran the ball only 16 times for 45 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards — and getting Taylor back will be a boon for this offense. The Colts' defense did hold the Jags to just 136 passing yards last week — and they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Indy ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing only 323.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they are third in the league in 3rd Down defense. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. The Colts are dealing with some injuries with Shaq Leonard not ready to return to linebacker this afternoon and defensive end Kwity Paye injured — but the Titans have their share of missing starters as well. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and top linebacker Harold Landry III are out the year with injuries. Linebacker Zach Cunningham and right guard Nate Davis are also out for today’s game. The Titans gained only 241 yards in their win against the Commanders — and they got outgained by -144 net yards after surrendering 385 total yards to Washington two weeks ago. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The draft day trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown has left the offense too one-dimensional. The team signed Robert Woods as a free agent and drafted rookie Treylon Burks from Arkansas — but he is injured and out for today’s game. Ryan Tannehill completed 15 of 25 passes against the Commanders for only 181 yards. Their 136 net passing yards (after sacks) was their third-lowest passing yardage effort this season. They are an unreliable favorite who have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games laying up to three points. Despite their winning record, they are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -112.6 YPG  due to an anemic offense gaining only 278.2 YPG. They only generate 25.4 yards per drive on offense while surrendering 37.4 yards per drive — and that -11.75 net yardage difference per drive is last in the league. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has outgained their opponents by +26 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have won their last four games against the Colts after their 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 4-point underdog on October 2nd. But Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Tennessee at their Nissan Stadium. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). THE SITUATION: California (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 20-13 upset loss at Colorado in overtime as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-39 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California has now lost three times to an opponent that was 0-5 or worse on the season under head coach Justin Wilcox — and they scored only 7.7 Points-Per-Game in those embarrassing losses. In 2018, the Golden Bears responded with a 42-point win at Oregon State. Last year, they responded with a 30-point win at Stanford. Cal has simply not been a reliable favorite under Wilcox — but they have been money in the underdog role. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have pulled off 13 upsets in those contests. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting seven or more points including in their 24-17 loss at Notre Dame as a 13.5-point dog earlier this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home as an underdog getting seven or more points. Cal should play better tonight to redeem themselves from their bad loss at Colorado inspired by playing under an interim head coach. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 7 games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. The Golden Bears have won all three of their games at home this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.0 PPG. Their offense wakes up when playing at home where they are scoring 34.3 PPG and generating 461.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +50.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They gained 595 total yards against the Wildcats last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has quickly fixed the offensive woes for the Huskies in the last few years — and bringing in transfer quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. was a great move. Washington is scoring 42.1 PPG — but they now face a Cal defense that ranks 25th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. But the problem for the Huskies now is the complete collapse of what was once a consistently strong defense. Losing three players to the NFL from last year hurt — but this unit ranks 115th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate and 102nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Washington goes back on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are winless this season with two losses by more than seven points. They have allowed their home hosts to score 42.5 PPG and generate 448.0 YPG against them. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wilcox will remind his team that they lost to the Huskies on the road last season by a 31-24 score. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games in conference play. 25* CFB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (383) and the LSU Tigers (384). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-33 victory against Auburn as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 45-35 upset win at Florida as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. Ole Miss racked up 448 rushing yards in the victory — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Rebels run the ball 65.5% of the time behind two dynamic rushers in Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins. Their talent makes up for a mediocre offensive line that will face their stiffest test of the season against the talent that LSU has on their defensive line. Quarterback Jaxson Dart’s season stats are propped up from two big games against Georgia Tech and Central Arkansas — but he completed only 9 of 19 passes for 130 yards against the Tigers last week. The Ole Miss defense plays aggressively with pressure on the quarterback and a good pass defense. They hold their opponents to just 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. The Rebels front seven holds opposing rushers to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 19th in sack rate. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s group of is one of three teams in the nation that have not allowed more than 25 plays of 20 or more yards this season. Mississippi goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and the Under is 41-17-1 in their last 59 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. LSU has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. The Tigers’ defense is limiting points when their opponents get into the Red Zone — they allow just 3.2 points per Red Zone trip by their opponent, ranking 19th in the nation. They return home to Baton Rouge where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against SEC rivals. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (383) and the LSU Tigers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.