At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) enter this game coming off a 30-23 loss at home to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this season after their 27-24 upset loss at home against Baltimore as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bengals’ quarterback  Joe Burrow is a game-time decision as he continues to be slowed by a nagging calk injury he suffered in late July. Even if he plays, he is not close to 100% — and this leg injury is impacting his passing ability. He is 0-12 with his passes of at least 15 yards in the air downfield. He is completing only 56.9% of his passes. If he cannot go tonight, then backup Jake Browning will get the call. The former Washington Huskies quarterback is in his third year in the league and has thrown exactly one pass in a regular season game back in Week One. Cincinnati does not have much of a ground game to lean on either. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step at this point in his career. After averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he has rushed for 59 and 56 yards on 13 carries in both his games. The Bengals have only rushed for 75 and 66 yards in their first two games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 99 yards in two straight games. They have been outrushed by 131 and 111 yards in both their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrushed by -100 or more yards in two straight contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home against an AFC North rival. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And in their last 10 games in September, Cincinnati has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles may be without the injured Cooper Kupp but Matthew Stafford is healthy and operating a ball-control offense behind former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been on the field for 36:17 minutes per game — and that is helping to protect their young defense that is allowing only 272.5 Yards-Per-Game. That defense is certainly helped by a healthy Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Additionally, the Rams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Los Angeles did surrender 6.89 Yards-Per-Play to the 49ers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.5 or more YPP. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh may have gutted out the win against AFC North rival on Monday after their defense scored two touchdowns — but head coach Mike Tomlin should have had an attentive audience this week after his team got outgained by -153 net yards. The offense has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. But the Steelers have faced two tough defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland who may both have top-five defenses this season. Getting to play against the Raiders should help Pickett have his best game of the season. Las Vegas is only producing pressure on the quarterback on 10.5% of their dropbacks — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 81.7% of their passes. The Steelers defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two straight contests. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week. After playing their first two games at home, they go on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games after a two-game home stand with three covers in their last four games under those circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to three points. Las Vegas opened their season by beating a now 0-3 Denver team that just gave up 70 points this afternoon — but they only scored 17 points in the win. The Raiders may have been exposed last week against the Bills — and a bounce back may not be in the cards as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Is second-year general manager Dave Ziegler simply continuing the mismanagement of talent evaluation that was endemic in the Jon Gruden residency in Vegas with general manager Mike Mayock (plucked away from the television booth)? Ziegler has continued an approach in the NFL draft that appears to be based on only watching nationally televised games in the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time windows. Signing linebacker Chandler Jones as a free agent last season seemed ill-advised — and it has been a disaster with the 33-year-old now away from the team due to personal issues. Mayock buried this roster through years of over-drafting Clemson and Alabama players that were busts on and off the field. And this team is favored? The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won nine of their last 12 games with T.J. Watt healthy and on the field. They have also won four of their five prime-time games with Pickett at quarterback. The Raiders have lost all three of their prime-time games under head coach Josh McDaniels. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). THE SITUATION: New England (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 24-17 loss at home to Miami on Sunday night as a 1-point underdog. New York (1-1) comes off a 30-10 loss at Dallas as an 8-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England will be playing with desperation this afternoon as they look to avoid starting the season 0-3 which will all but ruin their postseason aspirations — especially with two of the losses being against divisional rivals. It is fashionable to dump on head coach Bill Belichick because he has not been as successful as Tom Brady after their split in 2020 — but his teams have not gone worse than 7-9 in the three seasons since (despite being ravaged with roster attrition in that 2020 COVID season). The Patriots reached the playoffs in the 2021 season even with a rookie at quarterback — an achievement that would deserve Coach of the Year accolades if the individual was an “offensive” coach who once sat at the lunch table with Sean McVay. Belichick can still coach — he just has a different mentality that the en vogue methods of the young crop of offensive play-caller/head coaches. The defensive mentality coming from Belichick raises the floor of minimum expectations (like Mike Tomlin) — and that is why his teams have not bottomed out like McVay’s Rams did last season. So let’s keep some perspective: the Patriots lost by one scoring possession to both the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) and an AFC playoff team last week. This remains a team that outscored their opponents last season despite an 8-9 record. Belichick’s Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They were outgained by -101 net yards last week with the Dolphins averaging 6.48 Yards-Per-Play — but New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 6 or more YPP. The Patriots ranked eighth in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 322.0 YPG - and they are only giving up 320 YPG this season despite playing the potent Eagles and Dolphins offenses. The other side of the ball is in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coordinator experiments of last season. Quarterback Mac Jones has a better relationship with O’Brien — and he does lead the NFL in completions this season. He gives the Patriots a big edge this afternoon when compared to the Jets’ Zach Wilson. The third-year pro has been eaten alive by Belichick’s defenses in his career — in his four games starting against New England, Wilson has posted a 50.8 Passer Rating with only two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Jets lost all four games while scoring less than 10 PPG. This is a volatile situation with Wilson their best option under center after the Aaron Rodgers injury — and further failures against the dreaded Patriots today may quickly pick the scab of his unpopularity inside the locker room and with the Jets’ fans. In his 23 career starts, Wilson has 22 interceptions — and he is last in the NFL so far this season in Passer Rating and completion percentage. In theory, New York has a robust rushing attack to help him out — but they only ran for 64 yards last week against the Cowboys. The Jets’ offensive line is a mess with the underachieving Mekhi Bechton at right tackle — and now left tackle Duane Brown is out for this game with a shoulder and hip issues. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: With Tropical Rainstorm Ophelia impacting the Meadowlands, rain and wind are expected for this game. The last time the Patriots started 0-3 was in 2000 — so the Belichick approach of being patient and waiting for the other guy to start making mistakes will likely be the prudent approach under these weather conditions. As it is, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by seven points or less — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog of seven points or less. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 35-33 upset loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-0) has won their first two games after their 24-17 win at New England as a 1-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Denver has not covered the point spread yet under new head coach Sean Payton — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They did average 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is getting sacked once in every eight dropbacks. With the challenge of playing in the South Beach heat against this potent Dolphins offense, look for Payton to try to shorten this game with his rushing attack behind running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. The defense will be without Justin Simmons and Frank Harris this afternoon, but this remains a good group that is allowing only 324.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Denver ranked seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 320.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Broncos have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a road dog. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Miami has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Toal at home after beating an AFC East rival on the road in their last game. And while they outgained the Patriots by +101 net yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by seven or fewer points. Additionally, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle who is out with a concussion. Without his deep threat, the dynamo of the offense changes — and Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can either double-team Tyreek Hill or rely on shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II to cover him.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). THE SITUATION: Clemson (2-1) has won two straight games after their 48-14 win against FAU as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 31-29 win at Boston College as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson will be circling the wagons for this contest as they look to redeem themselves from their Week One upset loss at Duke and maintain their College Football Playoff hopes alive. This game will be just the second time in the Tigers' last 60 home games at Memorial Stadium where they will be an underdog. After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. Klubnik remains a work in progress, especially with the vertical passing game — but Clemson should be able to move the ball on the ground to set up advantageous passing situations. Running backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah have combined to generate 130.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Shipley continues to be one of the best running backs in the country by averaging 6.1 YPC and producing +3.6 YPC after contact. This duo has helped the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. The Seminoles have been vulnerable with their run defense. They rank 122nd in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed after Boston College ran for 150 yards against them. Stopping the run was an issue for this team last season as well as they ranked 74th in the nation by allowing 156.4 rushing YPG — and they ranked 63rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Clemson defense has only allowed 19.7 Points-Per-Game and 246.7 YPG. While Duke quarterback Riley Leonard burned them on a 44-yard rushing touchdown in their opener, they did hold the NFL prospect to just 175 passing yards on his 38 attempts. The Tigers rank 15th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 23rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank eighth in Havoc Rate. Clemson has only allowed 366 total yards in their last two games since the loss to the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 200 total YPG in their last two contests. And while their last two games have gone Over the Total with at least 62 combined points scored in both games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Florida State wants to believe the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell after their opening week upset victory against LSU in Orlando. Last year, they led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. While they looked great against LSU and then Southern Mississippi, they got outgained by a mediocre Eagles team last week by -107 net yards with their defense giving up 457 total yards. That contest was their first game on the road — and they stay on the road this week for perhaps their biggest game in the Norvell era. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win on the road by three points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 8 road games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Have the Seminoles turned just one corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention? They have lost seven straight games to the Tigers — and the last time they beat them in Memorial Stadium was 2013. Now they are favored which is a rare motivational opportunity for Dabo Swinney in his sixteenth year running the program — and Clemson has covered the point spread in 11 of the 15 home games as an underdog against a ranked opponent under his leadership. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (97-54) snapped out of their four-game losing streak last night with a 9-3 victory at home against the Phillies. Philadelphia (82-69) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Getting Ronald Acuna back in the lineup last night jumpstarted the Atlanta attack as they had 13 base hits while scoring those nine runs — and Acuna went three-for-five with two home runs and a stolen base. Acuna is set to lead off this afternoon's game. The Braves have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win by six or more runs — and they have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last contest. The Braves have also won 29 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They finished this series at home where they have won 23 of their last 34 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Pitching has been a problem for the Braves — so getting Spencer Strider in his turn in their starting rotation helped. Now Elder gets his next start to build on his 12-4 record along with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 29 starts. In his last six starts, the right-hander has a 2.97 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only 12 walks. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in 15 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .256 in his 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 19 home games with Elder on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a slumping Phillies lineup that is hitting only .239 in their last seven games with a .301 on-base percentage and an OPS of .738 during that span. Philadelphia plays their sixth straight game on the road — and they have lost 23 of their last 37 games after playing four or more games on the road. The Phillies bullpen gave up six runs last night — and they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after a game where their bullpen allowed five or more runs. They have also lost 8 of their last 13 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. And in their last 16 games when priced as a money-line underdog from +125 to +175, they have lost 10 of those contests. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts. The veteran right-hander is slumping this month with an 8.56 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .315 in his last three starts. And while he enjoys a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 in 13 starts, those numbers rise to a 5.58 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in his 17 starts on the road. Philly has lost 13 of their last 20 games on the road with Nola on the mound priced as a money-line underdog. The Braves lead MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they also lead MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL: TAKE: The Phillies have lost 19 of their last 31 games including five of their last eight when playing with revenge from a loss to an NL West rival on the road by six or more runs. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (952) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (951) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (96-54) looks to end a four-game losing streak after their 7-1 loss at home to the Phillies in the opening game of this series. Philadelphia (82-68) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has lost a bit of their edge as they prepare for their postseason run in a few weeks — but tonight is probably the night they decide enough is enough. They only managed four base hits last night against the Phillies Zack Wheeler — but they have then won 9 of their last 11 games after not getting more than four hits in their last contest. The Braves have won 28 of their last 37 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have lost five of their last seven contests, they have then won 10 games in a row after losing five or six of their last seven games. Atlanta has still won 25 of their last 35 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Their ace Strider gets the ball tonight with his 17-5 record along with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicates his ERA should lower with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.82 and 2.83 moving forward. He struggled in two starts while dealing with an illness — but he rebounded in his most recent start by allowing only one earned run and four hits in seven innings at Philadelphia last Wednesday. He has been more effective at home where he has a 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 14 starts as opposed to his 1.14 WHIP and .208 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 11 of his 14 home starts this season. Philadelphia banged out five home runs last night — but they have lost 5 of their last 8 games after hitting four or more homers in their last game. The Phillies play their fifth straight game on the road — and they have lost 22 of their last 36 games after playing four or more games on the road. They have lost 5 straight games as an underdog priced at +150 or higher — and they have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road as an underdog priced at +150. Sanchez gets the start for Philadelphia with his 2-4 record along with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 16 starts. He makes just his fifth start of the season on the road after giving up four runs in 7 1/3 innings at home against the Braves last Wednesday. In his last seven starts since the beginning of August, Sanchez has a 4.28 ERA. The Phillies have lost 4 of their 5 games this season with Sanchez pitching against an NL East rival. The Braves crush left-handed pitching — they are scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against lefties with a .288 batting average, a .348 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .855. Atlanta leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitching.

FINAL: TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 74 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 50 times with 14 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 52 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. Philadelphia has only been a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher 10 times this season — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 7 times with two upset wins and only one loss by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (903) listing Spencer Strider and Cristopher Sanchez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by the 49ers last week — but head coach Mike Tomlin should rally his troops in this divisional rivalry game tonight despite injuries to defensive end Cam Hayward and wide receiver Dionte Johnson. The Steelers closed last year strong by winning five of their last seven games — and the reports out of training camp were that they were one of the sharpest teams in the preseason — so that flat effort last week was surprising (and perhaps a statement as to how good the Niners are). Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points. Second-year Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions last week which was out of character for him after he only threw one interception in his last eight starts last season. While he will miss Johnson as one of his targets, he still has second-year wideout George Pickens who is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh deploys two tight ends frequently in this game with rookie Darnell Washington getting plenty of snaps — he is a massive 6’7 target who was underutilized in the passing game at Georgia. The Steelers will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group is much better with a healthy T.J. Watt — they had an 8-2 record when he was healthy last season. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland was impressive at home against a Bengals team that looked rusty on offense after Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason with a calf injury. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped his juice which was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They did outgain the Bengals by +158 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. And in their last 15 games as the favorite, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 19 straight games at home at Heinz Field against the Browns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 24-3 loss at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (1-0) won their first game of the new season with their 25-9 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The annual Baltimore Ravens injury-fest is already in full swing this season — this group is a M*A*S*H unit in just the second week of the season in such a way that makes an already good situation great. On offense, the Ravens' star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and their rock-solid center Tyler Linderbaum are out this week along with top running back J.K. Dobbins who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. On defense, star free safety Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury, and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out with a foot injury. Those are five starters gone for this divisional rivalry game — including two on the offensive line and two in the secondary against Joe Burrow and company — for a team that got outgained by the woeful Texans last week. The offensive line was already facing the challenge of replacing left guard Ben Powers who left in the offseason. And this is an offense in transition under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — they gained only 265 total yards against Houston. Lamar Jackson’s contract dispute was finally settled in the offseason — but the removal of previous OC Greg Roman seems to suggest that Jackson and the organization want to rely on Jackson’s arm more than his legs. Even if Jackson can be a successful gunslinger at this level, he may not have the offensive line this afternoon to execute that vision. As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. They go on the road for the first time this season having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati was sluggish in the rain last week with the offense only gaining 142 total yards. Being on the field for only 24:10 minutes did not help — but Burrow was rusty after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. The Browns' defense is very good this season — so playing them in bad weather when already being out of synch was far from optimal. But now this group wants to avoid another 0-2 start like last season — although the Bengals did eventually rebound to reach the AFC Championship Game. Another week of practice should have Burrow back in the groove — he competed 67% of his passes in Week Two last year despite being on the road against the stout Dallas defense. Cincinnati has covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Burrow loves playing against the Ravens — with his perfect 3-0 record at home against Baltimore, he has averaged 316 passing Yards-Per-Game with seven touchdown passes and a Passer Rating go 110. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against AFC rivals — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against the AFC North. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). THE SITUATION: Ohio (2-1) enters this game coming off a 17-10 upset victory at Florida Atlantic as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (1-1) comes off a 20-13 loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State’s program was rocked by its sports gambling scandal last month which has removed several players on the roster including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers and starting Jirehl Brock (who left the team amidst the allegations). Head coach Matt Campbell has been forced to make adjustments on the fly given these unusual circumstances. Second-year freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has inherited the offense but is completing only 58% of his passes while passing for only 316 yards in his two starts. Sophomore Cartevious Norton has become the lead running back but is only generating 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry with 108 rushing yards in his two games. The Cyclones are averaging only 3.8 YPC as a team. Iowa State has been a reliable underdog in Campbell’s eight years at the helm of this program — but they have not met expectations when placed in the role as the favorite. Iowa State has faced to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. This is the Cyclones' first road game in a hostile environment this season — and it is a sandwich game situation coming off their rivalry game with the Hawkeyes before their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week. Their one turnover last week was their lone giveaway of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Campbell was hoping to have 15 starters back from last year’s team that underachieved with a 4-8 record (despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game) — but the gambling scandal has changed expectations. The overall athleticism on the roster was already a question before losing their starting quarterback and running back. Red zone efficiency and giveaways held them back last season — and that is not a good sign in their first road game of this campaign. The books expect a lower-scoring game with the Total set in the low-40s. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Now here comes an Ohio team with 15 starters back from their 10-4 squad that bear Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl by a 30-27 score. If not for fifth-year senior Kurtis Rourke getting injured in their opening week game at San Diego State, the Bobcats could be undefeated. Instead, they lost on the road against the Aztecs by a 20-13 score as a 2-point underdog. Rourke missed their second game which they still won by a 27-10 score against Long Island. The reigning Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year returned last week and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards in leading Ohio to the upset road win at FAU. Head coach Tim Albin to building a culture with this program — and it starts on the defensive side of the ball. After the Bobcats gave up 561 Yards-Per-Game in their first six games last year, they held their final seven regular season opponents to 331 YPG. This improved defensive play has carried over as they are only giving up 233 YPG — and their three opponents have been held to -162 YPG below their season averages. While some football teams experience an emotional letdown after an upset win, these triumphs tend to provide jolts of energy and confidence to the Ohio players as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: With their loss to Iowa last week, Iowa State has now lost 11 of their last 12 games decided by one scoring possession. The Regression Gods may have decided this program gets what they deserve given these gambling revelations. Campbell may have inadvertently fostered a losing culture. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (65-81) has won two games in a row after their   1-0 win at Baltimore on Wednesday. Philadelphia (79-67) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cardinals are out of the playoff hunt but they are playing good baseball with four victories in their last six games and seven wins in their last ten games. They have won 44 of their last 67 games in September. Thompson gets the ball with a 5-5 record along with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 22 games which includes six starts. The left-hander has been quite effective since late July — in his last 37 innings, he has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 40 strikeouts. Those recent numbers come close to matching his season-long sabermetrics with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.61 moving forward. He has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 6.53 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302 in 20 2/3 innings — but in his 30 1/3 innings at home, he owns a 2.37 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252. He faces a slumping Phillies team that is hitting only .225 in their last seven games with a .315 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .726. Philadelphia has a .324 on-base percentage this season — and the Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 games with Thompson their starting pitcher facing a National League team with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower. The Phillies have lost four of their last five games — and they have lost 19 of their last 32 games after losing two or more games in a row. They go back on the road after playing seven straight games at home — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games after playing six or more games in a row. They counter with Nola who has a 12-9 record along with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 29 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.44 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .215 — but in his 16 starts on the road, he has a 5.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259. He has been rocked in his two starts this month as he owns an 11.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in those nine innings. The Phillies have lost 25 of their last 40 games in September with Nola on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: The above team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are grabbing for this situation. The Cardinals have covered +1.5 Run-Line in 38 of their last 58 games as a money-line underdog with 27 upset wins and 11 losses by one run. Philadelphia has failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 17 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line favorite above -110 to -150 with 12 upset losses and five one-run losses. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Month with St. Louis Cardinals (908) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Zack Thompson and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-0) has opened the season undefeated after a 13-3 victory against Sam Houston State in Houston’s NRG Stadium as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Utah State (1-1) won their first game of the season with a 78-28 win against Idaho State as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Air Force held a feisty Sam Houston State team to just 80 total yards of offense last week with the Bearkats averaging only 1.82 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their previous opponent to 3.25 or fewer YPP. Air Force led the nation last season by allowing only 254.4 Yards-Per-Game — and they return eight starters from that group along with nine of the 13 players that played at least 250 snaps last season. They held their opponents to -94 YPG below their season average. Even more accolades for the defense under head coach Troy Calhoun: they ranked ninth in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed; they ranked third in the FBS in third-down defense while holding their last two opponents, San Diego State and Baylor, to going 0-for-21; they ranked fourth in the FBS with opponents only scoring touchdowns in 43% of their trips inside the red zone. So far this season, they rank tenth in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They held Robert Morris to just 165 yards in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Air Force has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. The Falcons return 13 starters — a high number for a service academy program — from their team that finished 10-3 after beating Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-15 score. While they were only 5-3 in conference play, they outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +106 net YPG. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier has been solid operating the spread option rushing attack — he ran for 65 yards last week while Air Force held the ball for 36:38 minutes. While he does not throw the ball often, this offense does lead the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing attack when they do chuck it. The Falcons return home where they have a 73-24 record under Calhoun — and they have a 43-10 record there since 2014. Air Force has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Utah State rebounded from their 24-14 loss at Iowa by dominating an FCS program — but Idaho State did generate 424 total yards against them. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored. They did rush for 380 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. This team returns only nine starters from the group that finished 6-7 last year — and that group benefited from winning all four of their games decided by one score possession. They got outgained in Mountain West Conference play despite a 5-3 conference record in the second season under head coach Blake Anderson. His teams going back to Arkansas State having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home by four or more touchdowns. And while the Aggies gained 591 yards last week, Anderson’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after generating 575 or more yards in their last game. Utah State ranks only 87th in the FBS in Opponent Defensive Success Rate Allowed while ranking 66th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed. When that mediocrity gets combined with the Aggies' fast pace on offense — they rank 20th in fewest seconds per play this season, their defense may get gassed when the offense goes three-and-out in a quick series which then puts their defense back on the field.

FINAL TAKE: Anderson has pulled off two straight upsets against the Air Force in his two previous seasons at Utah State. After the Aggies gave up 437 rushing yards in a 49-45 barn-burner two years ago, they held the Falcons to 265 rushing yards on 54 carries last year — a 4.91 Yards-Per-Carry average as opposed to the 6.94 YPC they gave up in 2021. But Anderson had extra days to prepare for last year’s contest after playing BYU on a Thursday night the previous week. Now Utah State travels to Falcon Stadium on a short week with Calhoun certainly playing up the consecutive upset losses to this opponent. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like a heavy pass script coming from head coach Kevin O’Connell who calls the plays. Don’t be surprised if Kirk Cousins throws 50 passes tonight against a depleted Eagles secondary that is missing cornerback James Bradbury to the concussion protocol and safety Reed Blankenship to a rib injury. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Vikings have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go on the road on the short week where they have played 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable. The Eagles gave up 382 total yards to the Patriots last week. But Philadelphia should play better on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Minnesota defense was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last season with the Eagles winning at home by a  24-7 score on September 19th. That final score was misleading as the Vikings got inside the Philadelphia 27-yard line four times — and then twice inside their 10-yard line — but failed to score a single point on those four drives. If Minnesota scores more from those drives, the game script changes with Philly likely scoring in the 30s. Expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (69-77) has snapped a three-game losing streak after their 3-1 victory on the road against the Giants in the second game of this series. San Francisco (74-71) was on a four-game winning streak before that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They managed only four base hits in the victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they had less than five base hits. Cleveland has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have not scored more than four runs in four straight games, they have played 28 of their last 40 games Under the Total after not scoring more than four runs in three straight games — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing four straight games where they did not score more than four runs. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. Allen gets the ball with his 7-7 record along with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander remains steady in the second half of the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in his last seven starts since the beginning of August. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.36 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in 11 starts at home. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Allen their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. Allen has thrived in day games as well with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as compared to his 4.18 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 in  15 starts at night. He faces a Giants team that is scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .682. San Francisco ranks 27th and 23rd in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they fall to 29th and 28th in the league in those categories since July 1st. The Giants have played 23 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They are only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 home games Under the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They counter with Harrison who has a 1-1 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in his first four starts at the MLB level. The rookie has not allowed more than three earned runs in three of his four starts — he gave up six runs in San Diego in the outlier. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.66 and 3.93 moving forward. In his two starts at home, Harrison has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190.  He faces a slumping Guardians team that is scoring 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616 during that span. Against left-handed pitching, Cleveland is scoring only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game with a .242 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .677. The Guardians rank 26th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they remain 25th and 26th in MLB since August 1st in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (925) and the San Francisco Giants (926) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) finished 7-10 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo looks poised to lean on their running game more this season with the acquisition of running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Bills have lacked the ability to sustain a four-minute offense when they need to protect a lead in the fourth quarter. With Harris coming over from New England and Murray being signed from Denver, Buffalo now has two bigger running backs to use in a power running game. Look for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to attempt to establish a power-rushing attack behind their solid offensive line against the stout Jets defense. The Bills' defense should be outstanding once again this season. They ranked second in the NFL by allowing only 17.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Additionally, the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. Aaron Rodgers is now under center — but I am not expecting him to light up the scoreboard after not getting much playing time in the preseason. The Jets are shaky with their offensive line — especially at right tackle with Mekhi Becton. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season.   The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more than important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys will lean on their outstanding defense ranked fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Giants’ running back has scored only three touchdowns in the eight games that he has played against the Cowboys. While most of the attention to New York in the second seasons under head coach Brian Daboll goes to Daniel Jones and the potential (or limitations) of their offense), I expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the injured Cowboys offensive line and Prescott. New York has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. The Giants have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) begins the post-Aaron Rodgers era coming off an 8-9 season. Chicago (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jordan Love era begins for the Packers as he makes his second career start this afternoon. He is probably not going to continue the outstanding legacy that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have established with this organization in the last three decades — Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not grow on trees. But while I think he can develop into a solid NFL quarterback, he probably still needs some time to develop after only taking 157 snaps in his three seasons in the NFL. Even if head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to “Let Love Cook” in this opening game, injuries at wide receiver would have probably changed that plan. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a hamstring injury and second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs is questionable with a hamstring. The remaining depth chart in the wide receiver room are rookies. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the running game this afternoon. I have a suspicion that an aggressive rushing attack is what LaFleur would have preferred anyways even with Rodgers as his quarterback the last few seasons. The Bears ranked second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Chicago certainly wants to pass the ball more after ranking last in the league by averaging only 130.5 passing YPG last season. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore when they traded down in the draft with Carolina gives third-year quarterback Justin Fields the number one wide receiver he has lacked. But I do not expect second-year head coach Matt Eberflus to abandon his defensive roots in game-planning for this contest. The Bears defense dealt with several injuries in the preseason so cohesion is a concern. Look for Chicago to focus on their ground game with Khalil Herbert and free agent signee D’Onta Foreman. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Toal in the opening two weeks of the season.  Don’t be surprised if this game is over by 7 PM ET/4 PM PT despite the late start — both teams are going to run the ball and burn clock. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-33 upset loss in double-overtime at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (1-0) began their season with an 81-7 victory against Portland State as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: A 78-minute delay to the start of the game in Laramie against the Cowboys did not help Texas Tech’s cause last week. The Red Raiders got inside Wyoming’s 40-yard line seven times in that game but only scored 20 points from those drives. They missed three field goals and outgained the Cowboys in yardage by a 433-351 margin but could not survive the second overtime. Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record last season simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury. He has an 8-2 record as a starter for the Red Raiders after last week’s loss — but he did complete 31 of 47 passes for 338 yards with three touchdown passes. And the Texas Tech defense played well enough after holding Wyoming to just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home to Jones AT&T Stadium where they hold a big edge in front of their loud fans. They were 6-1 at home last year while covering the point spread in 5 of those games. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Oregon comes off a laugher against an FBS opponent — but the question remains: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. But Nix only accrued 16 passes that were designed as “Big Time” throws last season in a dink-and-dunk passing game. Only 29% of Oregon’s passes last season were of more than ten air-yards last year — and that is a big reason why they ranked 128th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon got into many shootouts last year — but their lack of explosiveness makes blowout victories unlikely especially when playing away from Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and Shough will have a chip on his shoulder to face his former team before transferring to Lubbock. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lions were a reliable underdog against the spread last year. But now the hype train for the Detroit Lions has not been this loud in decades — and while they should contend for the NFC North title, I do not think the available evidence matches the raised expectations for this franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991. I’m simply not impressed with their final Sunday night victory in Lambeau Field against Green Bay that thwarted the Packers' playoff aspirations despite their playoff hopes being eliminated earlier in the day. I think it is one of the easiest things to do in competitive events to find motivation to screw your rivals — especially when absolved from the pressure of failing to meet expectations. Good for the Lions that day! But the seeds of their downfall may have been exposed even in that game (more on that in my Final Take). And how impressive was that victory against the Packers, exactly? If the Aaron Rodgers Truthers who now drive the NY Jets Hype Train and the Rodgers Haters have one thing in common, it is this: that Green Bay team last season was a mess. Either Rodgers' bad season was a result of his playing with a broken hand or the product of Father Time’s impact on his skill set — but he was bad. There also is a narrative that the Lions' defense improved in the second half of the season. First of all, Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad rate through October when each of their opponents scored at least 24 points — so better numbers in the second half may have simply been the law of averages kicking in (especially when four games against Chicago and the broken Packers appear on the docket). Secondly, the most important game of the Lions' entire season was in Week 15 when they played at Carolina with control of their playoff fate on the line with a 7-7 record. In that game against the Sam Darnold-led Panthers under interim head coach Steve Wilks, Detroit lost by a 37-23 score with the “improved” Lions defense surrendering 570 total yards. Darnold looked like he was back at USC throwing against the RichRod Arizona defense while the Panthers rushed for 320 yards (not a typo). Detroit finished the season last in the NFL in yardage allowed — ranking 29th in run defense and 30th in pass defense. They did upgrade that unit in the offseason — but free-agent cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out tonight with a knee injury. The hope is that the run defense will improve because of their rookie class — but I’m not sure those rookies suddenly make this group even middle of the road. Perhaps the dynamic Detroit offense will keep them competitive tonight? Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. With tight end T.J. Hockensen traded to Minnesota and replaced by a rookie and second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, who is Goff’s (reliable) second option in the passing game? The Lions remain a team that got outgained in yardage last season. Regarding Kansas City, I am assuming that tight end Travis Kelce will not play (although even better if he does — I give it a one out of three chance that he can go despite his bruised knee). The triumph of this Chiefs team last season was predicated on Patrick Mahomes' development as a quarterback in taking what the defense gave him in his first season playing without Tyreke Hill. The mission this offseason has been to nurture the development of wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice into the passing attack to better complement Kelce. Even if Kelce does not play, head coach Andy Reid will scheme players open against the Lions defense Darnold picked apart last December — and Mahomes has more than demonstrated the discipline to simply find open receivers. And don’t be surprised if Reid’s game plan is to simply run over this porous Lions defensive line that the Panthers mauled with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. On defense, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Mahomes has won all five of his home openers in his career with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

FINAL TAKE: Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been notoriously aggressive with his play-calling in his first two seasons. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth down attempts during his tenure — and they have successfully converted seven of their eight fake punts in his tenure. They had the luxury of being aggressive in that Sunday night game against the Packers with nothing on the line for them except the joy of playing the role of the spoiler. Now expectations have arrived for this team — and Campbell — and that aggressiveness can quickly become reckless (ask LA Chargers fans with Brandon Staley). I recall an ill-advised fourth down attempt inside the Lions’ 30-yard line in his rookie season in the salad days when he was trying to avoid a winless season. A mistake like that at Arrowhead Stadium against Mahomes would be Game (and point spread cover) Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-47) has lost two games in a row after their 10-6 loss at home to the Cardinals in the second game of this series last night. St. Louis (60-78) has won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has rebounded to win 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. They were on a six-game winning streak before dropping their last two contests — and they have won 13 of their last 14 games at home after losing their last game by four or more runs. They have also won 44 of their last 62 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They still have a 44-23 record this season — and they have won 13 of their last 17 games at home. Atlanta has also won 14 of their last 19 home games when priced as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Their ace gets the ball tonight on a personal four-game winning streak after allowing four runs in six innings on the road against the Dodgers in an 8-6 victory last Thursday — he had only given up one earned run in his last three starts combined. He sported a 5-1 record in August with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 36 1/3 innings with 46 strikeouts and only 13 bases-on-balls. For the season, the right-hander has a 16-4 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 27 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.76 and 2.87 moving forward. He also has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in 13 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 16 games at home with Strider on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at -200 or higher. He faces a Cardinals lineup that is hitting only .237 in their last seven games with a .304 on-base percentage. 204 batting average even after yesterday’s scoring outburst. St. Louis ranks 21st and 22nd in MLB since August 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals have lost 4 of their last 6 games after winning their previous game — and they have lost 17 of their last 21 games after a victory by four or more runs. They have also lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They counter with Hudson who has a 5-1 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 56 innings which includes seven starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.08 and 4.93 moving forward. The right-hander has done his best work at home where he owns a 3.43 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in 39 1/3 innings — but those numbers rise to a 5.40 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in 16 2/3 innings on the road. He only has three Quality Starts in his last six starts overall — and now he faces this Braves team that leads MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 67 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 45 times with 12 straight-up losses and 10 wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 45 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 32 times with only two of their victories being by just one run. The Cardinals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their 9 games this season when priced as a money-line dog at +145 or higher — and none of those three +1.5 Run-Line covers were from losses by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (964) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (963) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dakota Hudson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (62-70) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory on the road against the Cardinals. St. Louis (56-76) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have scored only four combined runs in their last four games — and they have not scored more than two runs in any of those four games. The Cards have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 40 of their last 55 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in four straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing three straight games where they did not score more than two runs. And in their last 7 games at home, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Thompson gets the start tonight with his 3-5 record along with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 35 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.43 and 3.08 moving forward. The left-hander has been getting excellent results since adding a slider/cutter pitch to his arsenal which is generating swinging strikes. Since he debuted the pitch on July 19th, Thompson has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings. He has been much better at home this season where he has a 1.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 19 1/3 innings as opposed to his 6.89 ERA, a 1.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .313 in 15 2/3 innings on the road. He faces a slumping Padres offense that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and a .680 OPS during that span. San Diego has 36 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning their last game — including four of their last six contests. They have also played 29 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Padres have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 36-46% of their games. They counter with Lugo who has a 5-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts consisting of six-inning efforts apiece. Furthermore, Lugo has held six of his last seven opponents to less than three earned runs — he sports a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP during those seven starts with 43 strikeouts in those 40 1/3 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in ten starts as compared to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in ten starts at home. The Padres have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with Lugo on the hill with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are scoring only 2.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .169 batting average, a .246 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (951) and the St. Louis Cardinals (952) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Zack Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. THE SITUATION: Seattle (74-56) has won three straight games — as well as 11 of their last 12 — after their 3-2 victory against Kansas City on Sunday. Oakland (38-93) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has been one of the best teams in baseball this month having won 19 of their last 23 games. They have overtaken Texas for first place in the AL West during this surge. This resurgence for a group that spent half the season underachieving after making the playoffs last year can be attributed mostly to the scorching-hot play of Juan Rodriguez. The sophomore put up underwhelming numbers (for him) in the first few months of the season — despite the underlying data which were pretty much in line with his spectacular rookie season. But the Regression Gods have made their presence felt recently as Rodriguez boasts a .386 batting average in the last 30 days with a .431 on-base percentage and an OPS of 1.054 over that span. In the last 30 days, he has blasted six home runs while driving in 29 runners and stealing 11 bases. Rodriguez is carrying this team — and 13 of their last 19 victories have been by more than one run. Seattle has won 15 of their last 17 games after winning their last game. They have also won 52 of their last 82 games after a victory by two runs or less. They have won 36 of their last 55 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while the Mariners have not committed an error in their last two games, they have then won 29 of their last 44 games after playing two games in a row without committing an error. Seattle stays at home where they have won 11 of their last 15 games — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. Woo gets his second start since returning from the injured list after dealing with forearm inflammation. The right-hander allowed only one run in four innings of work in Chicago against the White Sox last Tuesday. He looks ready to pitch at least five innings tonight. For the season, he has a 1-3 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 4.13 moving forward. And while he has been saddled with an 11.25 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a .324 opponent’s batting average in his two starts for day games, he has a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in his 10 starts at night. Seattle has won 4 of their last 5 games with Woo pitching on five or six days of rest. He faces an A’s team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game against fellow AL West opponents with a .196 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .581. Oakland has lost 28 of their last 34 games against division rivals. They have lost 70 of their last 92 games after losing their previous game. They have scored only three combined runs in their last two games — and they have then lost 26 of their last 30 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have lost 11 of their last 14 games — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games on the road when priced as a +200 or higher money-line underdog. Muller gets the ball tonight with his 1-4 record with a 7.28 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in 13 appearances including 11 starts. And while he has a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .320 in his eight games at home, those numbers skyrocket to a 10.41 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in his five starts on the road. He faces this Mariners lineup that is scoring 8.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .318 batting average, a .393 on-base percentage, and a .951 OPS during that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. I did take pause with this situation when considering that Seattle has only covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 34 games this season when priced above my -150 threshold (with six one-run wins and 13 upset losses). But the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 4 of their last 6 games when priced above -150 with just one-run and one upset loss in those six games. When Seattle has been priced at -200 or higher this season (as they are in this contest), they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 14 games (with three losses and three one-run wins). And they are playing the worst team in baseball who have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 7 of their last 10 games when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League West Run-Line of the Month is with the Seattle Mariners (920) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Oakland A’s (919) listing both starting pitchers Bryan Woo and Kyle Muller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (84-44) has won four straight games after their 7-3 victory on the road against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (66-63) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 31 of their last 49 games on the road Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in three or more games in a row — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, in their last 27 games on the road in August, Atlanta has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Shuster gets his tenth start of the season carrying a 4-2 record along with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 6.18 and 6.19 moving forward. And while the left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in five starts at home, those numbers rise to a 6.27 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 in four starts on the road. He faces a Giants lineup that has a .267 batting average in their last seven games with a .322 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .731 during that span which compares favorably versus their .239 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .694 for the season. San Francisco ranks eighth and sixth this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Braves scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game, San Francisco has played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total against National League teams scoring 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Beck who has a 3-2 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings. This will be his first start of the season — and the metrics call for regression even before the typical drop in effectiveness when a pitcher attempts to stretch out for more than one inning. His SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 4.03 and 4.33 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.33 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292 in 35 1/3 innings as opposed to his 2.25 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in 32 innings.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves score 5.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .273 batting average, a .339 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .502. Atlanta ranks first and second in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created this season on the road against right-handed pitching — and they rank second in both those categories since June. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with  Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Jared Shuster and Tristan Beck. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-2) has lost their first two preseason games after their 34-17 loss at home to Las Vegas as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Denver (0-2) is winless this preseason after their 21-20 upset loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER TOTAL: Head coach Sean McVay is not likely to play his starters tonight -- especially after these teams just finished two days of rigorous joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday. That means that the Rams' offense will be quarterbacked mostly by rookie Stetson Bennett and journeyman Brett Rypien. Their loss to the Raiders saw a combined 51 points scored — but 14 of those points came from the teams exchanging pick-sixes. Los Angeles is scoring only 17 Points-Per-Game in the preseason while generating only 243.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The Rams’ offensive line is a mess — and that problem permeates all the way down their depth chart on the line. LA’s defense has also been bad by allowing 379.1 YPG — but they should benefit from seeing the Broncos’ playbook twice this week. McVay’s Rams have played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a loss in the preseason. They have also played 3 Unders in the three games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog under McVay. Denver head coach Sean Payton has indicated his starters will not play for more than a series (if that) tonight. With wide receiver Jerry Jeudy getting injured in the joint practices, I do not expect many of their starters on offense to take the field. The Broncos are scoring only 18.5 PPG in the preseason while averaging 317.0 YPG. Denver has not covered the point spread in their first two preseason games — and Payton’s teams have played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight preseason games. This will be the Broncos' lone preseason game at home at Empower Stadium at Mile High — and Payton’s teams have played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games on the road. Furthermore, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games at home Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Denver allowed the 49ers to average 6.8 Yards-Per-Play last week, Payton’s teams have played 7 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after allowing their previous preseason opponent to average 6.5 or more YPP.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this play is that these teams just completed two days of joint practice this week. The Rams' defense had glowing reports afterward — especially on Wednesday. The Broncos defense played significantly better on Thursday. McVay and Payton used those controlled scrimmages as their “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Expect backups tonight with vanilla schemes in a game filled with players fighting for the final roster spots. In situations like this, the edge goes to the defense since only one mistake by a player on offense can ruin the execution of the play. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (133) and the Denver Broncos (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). THE SITUATION: Massachusetts (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 1-11 last season. New Mexico State (0-0) has 13 starters returning from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 24-19 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies return nine starters on offense from a group that ranked 108th in the FBS by generating 330.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and head coach Jerry Kill’s team is not going to significantly increase those numbers even if they improve their efficiency since he prefers a run-first ball control attack. New Mexico State scored only 25.5. Points-Per-Game last season in his first year as head coach. The Aggies did win seven of their last nine games — including their victory against the Falcons in the bowl game — with the surge coinciding with Kill turning to Diego Pavia at quarterback. But while they scored at least 45 points in four of those wins, those were against some weak opponents. New Mexico State scored 45 points against a Hawai’i team undergoing a massive rebuild who were one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. They put up 49 points against a shellshocked Liberty reeling internally from the rumors that their head coach Hugh Freeze was leaving the program for Auburn. They then scored 51 points against FCS-opponent Lamar and then 65 points against Valparaiso who was a late-season replacement for San Jose State who canceled their game after the tragic death of one of their teammates. The Aggies scored less than 25 points in their three other victories — including a 23-13 victory against this UMass team. They then failed to score more than 14 points in their six losses. Pavia is a gamer — but the former junior college transfer completed only 53.2% of his passes last season. New Mexico State’s ball control offense did help their defense hold their opponents to just 336.6 total YPG, ranking 29th in the nation. Five starters return to that unit that was bolstered by the addition of Power-Five transfers in nose tackle Dion Wilson, Jr. from Arizona and linebacker Jamari Buddin from Minnesota. The Aggies return two starters — and add cornerback Keynote Wilson as a transfer from Wyoming  — to a secondary that ranked 16th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 186.8 passing YPG. Kill’s teams have played 31 of their last 52 games Under the Total when playing at home in his coaching career — and his teams have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. UMass will be debuting former Clemson blue-chipper Taison Phommochanh at quarterback — but he was not able to take the starting job at Georgia Tech either so this ability to transform the Minutemen offense that ranked 130th in the nation by averaging only 12.5 PPG remains in doubt. UMass scored less than 14 points in nine of their 12 games last season. Second-year head coach Don Brown will have no plans to open up the offense anyway — his formula for success is also ball control to help his defense. The former defensive coordinator at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh had his team rank 16th in the nation time of possession last season as the head coach for this program. The Minutemen return eight starters — and 13 of their 18 who played at least 200 snaps — from a defense that ranked 54th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.6 total YPG. Brown inherited a defense that ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 485.0 total YPG. After their opponents generated +124 YPG above their season average two years ago, Brown was able to get that mark down to just +14 YPG above their offensive YPG average. Brown and defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski’s unit ranked 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% conversion rate on third down. UMass also ranked ninth in the FBS by allowing only 175.2 passing YPG — a testament to Brown’s touch as he handles the secondary coaching to infuse his man-to-man cover principles. Solid man-to-man coverage allowed the Minutemen to rank fifth in the nation in blitz rate per dropback. UMass played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s game on the road by a 23-13 score at the Minutemen’s McGuirk Alumni Stadium — they gained only 334 total yards but held UMass to just 259 total yards. Both of these coaching staffs will have dedicated plenty of coaching hours to scheme against these offensive attacks that lack originality. Kill’s teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season — and New Mexico State played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Minutemen played 5 of their 7 games in the first half of the season Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) leveled their preseason record at 1-1 with a 21-17 upset victory at Green Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Tennessee (1-1) evened their record at 1-1 in the preseason with a 24-16 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams were set to have two days of joint practices this week — but those plans were canceled after the scary incident the Patriots experienced with their rookie Isaiah Bolden who got injured in that game against the Packers which led to that contest being ended early. While head coach Bill Belichick might have been tempted to use this final preseason game to get more work in for quarterback Mac Jones and the first-string offense — especially with those joint scrimmages postponed — the injuries on their offensive line seem to have persuaded Belichick to instead give Jones and the critical first stringers on offense the night off. Left guard Cole Strange and right guard Michael Onwenu are slowed by injuries and will not play tonight as they prepare for the regular season in two weeks. The play of the Patriots offensive line has been shaky without those two starters — and they have serious issues at right tackle. Jones was sacked twice for 20 yards in his limited action last week. Even if Jones takes the field tonight, it will not be for long since Belichick does not want to risk serious injury to his starting quarterback. Bailey Zappe will likely get most of the snaps under center in the first half — he struggled last week by completing only 10 of 22 passes for only 117 yards. Trace McSorley will probably play most of the second half after the Patriots signed him as a free agent in the offseason. He has played in only nine games with one start in his three-year career — and he has completed only 51.6% of his passes in his career with one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Undrafted rookie free agent Malik Cunningham from Louisville may get some snaps in the fourth quarter although he may get moved to wide receiver for the Patriots in the long run. Belichick may have used the joint practices to test their top third down and red zone plays against a friendly rival in his former player Mike Vrbabel — but that is not likely to happen now when the entire league gets the tape. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win in the preseason. New England has also played 20 of their last 32 road preseason games as an underdog under Belichick — and they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total in the preseason when getting up to three points as an underdog. The Patriots have only scored 15.0 Points-Per-Game in their two preseason games while generating 204.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but their defense has been solid by holding their opponents to just 302.5 total YPG which has resulted in their opponents scoring 18.5 PPG. The Titans defense has been similarly effective by holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG and 299.5 total YPG. But Tennessee has scored only 20.5 PPG in their two preseason games. Ryan Tannehill may get a series or two tonight according to head coach Vrabel — but considering that he has not played in the preseason since 2019, I do not expect him to play for more than a series or two. The Titans’ backup QB situation is unsettled. Rookie Will Levis will probably play after missing last week’s game with a lower-body injury. The former Kentucky star was just OK in his professional debut two weeks ago against Chicago when he completed 9 of 14 passes for 85 yards — but with an interception. He probably could have used the reps last week against the hostile competition that was the Vikings. Rookies tend to struggle against Belichick even in the preseason when his defenses are not as sophisticated as what they will be in the regular season. Malik Willis played the entire game against Minnesota — and he will probably get time tonight since he is a potential trade target. The Titans’ third-round pick from last season has not met expectations — remember that he was bypassed as the team’s starter late in the season last year for Josh Dobbs who they picked up off the streets the previous in a critical Thursday night game against Jacksonville for their playoff aspirations. Willis has completed 26 of his 42 preseason passes this month for only 274 yards with two interceptions. Tennessee has played 4 of their 6 home preseason games as a favorite Under the Total in the Vrabal era.

FINAL TAKE: The offensive schemes will likely be vanilla between these AFC rivals who could play each other in an early playoff game in January. The Titans have played 3 of their 4 preseason games Under the Total against AFC teams under Vrabel — and New England has played 8 of their 12 preseason games Under the Total in the Belichick era. 25* AFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (111) and the Tennessee Titans (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (78-51) has four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 5-3 victory against Colorado on Thursday. New York (61-66) has lost 10 of their last 11 games after their 6-5 loss to Washington yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay hit rock bottom on July 29th when their record fell to 62-44 — only four games above .500 since their blazing 14-0 start to the season. But the Rays have since gone 15-7 with nine victories in their last 12 games. They have won 13 of their last 17 games after winning four or more games in a row. And while they have won their last two games by two runs or less in their last two contests, they have then won 13 of their last 21 games after winning their last two games by less than three runs. Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 61 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 12 of their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. Eflin gets the ball coming off six innings of one-run ball in his last start in Los Angeles against the Angels last Saturday. The right-hander has a 13-7 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 24 starts. In his four starts this month, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.44 and 3.27 moving forward. And while he allowed six runs in just three innings in his last start at home against Cleveland on August 13th, he still owns a 3.05 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 14 starts at home as opposed to his 4.37 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts on the road. Tampa Bay has won 11 of Eflin’s 14 starts at home this season — and they have won 30 of their last 40 home games with him on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .201 batting average, a .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. New York ranks just 25th and 24th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Manager Aaron Boone is a lame duck working his last five weeks with the team before finally getting fired with the hot seat now moving towards general manager Brian Cashman. The Yankees are now five games under .500 after enduring a nine-game losing streak during this recent slump — that was the first time since 1982 that the Bronx Bombers lost nine games in a row. New York has lost 10 of their last 15 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while they only hit .166 in their last five games, they have then lost 11 of their last 33 games on the road when not hitting higher than .225 in their last five games. The Yankees have lost 19 of their last 30 games on the road when price as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Cole who has a 10-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 26 starts. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.78 and 3.75 moving forward. He has struggled this month with a 5.25 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .247 opponent’s batting average in four starts. New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games in August — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with Cole pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Cole faces a Rays lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .345 batting average, a .399 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .964. Tampa Bay has a .458 on-base percentage in their last five games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games after posting an on-base percentage of .375 or higher in their last five contests. Tampa Bay still ranks eighth and fourth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank sixth and third in those categories this month. 25*  MLB American League East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (964) versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Gerrit Cole. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (80-44) has lost two games in a row after their 10-4 loss at home to the Mets last night. New York (59-67) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should bounce back tonight as they have won 20 of their last 24 games at home after a loss by four or more runs. They were heavy favorites priced in the -220 for that game yesterday — and they have won 16 of their last 23 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival priced at -150 or higher. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs to a divisional rival — and they have won 5 of the last 6 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game. Additionally, the Braves have won 14 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss at home when they were priced at -200 or higher. And while Atlanta has lost their last two games against the Mets after beating them by a 21-3 score on August 12th, they have won 44 of their last 64 games when playing with double-revenge. They have won 10 of their last 15 games at home with the Total set at 10 or higher — and they have won 5 straight home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 33 games against fellow NL East rivals. Elder gets the start with his 9-4 record along with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.12 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 starts on the road. And in his last two home starts, the right-hander has allowed only one earned run — good for a 0.64 ERA with a 0.57 WHIP in those 14 innings. He faces a Mets team that may be experiencing a dead cat bounce but who remains eight games under .500. New York has lost 14 of their last 23 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also lost 24 of their last 31 games on the road as an underdog including 9 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog priced from +175 to +250. They counter with Megill who has a 7-6 record along with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 18 starts. While the right-hander has been solid at home with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in nine starts, those numbers skyrocket to an 8.20 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .357 in nine starts on the road. New York is winless in their 5 road games this season with Megill on the mound pitching as the underdog. In his last six starts, he has been saddled with an 8.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. Now he faces a Braves team that ranks first and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they lead MLB in those categories since the beginning of July.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 60 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 40 times with 11 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 38 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 27 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets covered the +1.5 Run-Line last night for the first time in their last seven games when priced as a money-line dog priced at +145 or higher — and they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their 11 games this season under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta by grabbing the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (906) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Tylor Megill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (67-56) has won two of their last three games after their 12-3 victory on the road against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (56-68) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback. The Little League Classic is being played on a neutral field at the Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Connecticut.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Philadelphia has scored 28 combined runs in their last three games with at least seven runs in each of those contests. The Phillies have won 19 of their last 22 games after scoring seven or more runs in two straight games — and they have won 38 of their last 56 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last contest. All three of those games finished Over the Total — and Philadelphia has won 17 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. The Phillies have also won 17 of their last 22 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with his 9-5 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.52 and 3.54 moving forward. The right-hander has ripped off seven straight Quality Starts — posting a 2.76 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in those 45 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and just seven walks in those seven starts. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 13 games with Wheeler on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. He has a 3.24 ERA in his 13 starts on the road as opposed to his 4.07 ERA in 11 starts at home — and the Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Wheeler on the mound with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. He faces a Nationals team that ranks 24th and 25th since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. Washington has lost 19 of their last 25 games after losing their previous game by eight or more runs — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss at home by eight or more runs. The Nationals have still won six of their last eight games — but they have lost 10 of their last 14 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. And while they have allowed seven or more runs in three straight games, they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after allowing seven or more runs. They counter with Williams who has a 5-7 record with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 24 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.85 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .269 — but those numbers rise to a 5.52 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in 13 starts on the road. While Williams is pitching for the technical home team tonight — I conclude that his better success at home relates to sleeping in his own bed, his familiarity with that mound, and performing in front of his home fans rather than pitching at the beginning of an inning. Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games batting last with Williams their starting pitcher priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. He faces this hot-hitting Phillies team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .265 batting average, a .343 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .847 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Philadelphia has not been reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line when priced as a money-line favorite above -150 — until recently. Since August 5th, the Phillies have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in five of their last seven situations when priced above my -150 threshold — and their two failures were straight-up losses (rather than one-run victories). Lastly, the five previous Little League Classic contests were all decided by three or more runs. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Philadelphia Phillies (909) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (910) in the Little League Classic listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. THE SITUATION: Seattle (67-55) has won four straight games after their 2-0 win on the road against the Astros yesterday. Houston (70-53) had won two games in a row before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have won all four of these games by two runs or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning three games in a row by two runs or less. Granted, Julio Rodriguez is tearing it up right now — he is 13 of 17 in his last three games — so taking an Under against a left-handed starting pitcher gave me pause. But the Mariners have stranded at least 10 baserunners in four straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row where they left 10 or more runners on base. Gilbert gets the ball tonight with his 10-5 record with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.65 moving forward. He has been outstanding since the beginning of July boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in those 49 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.51 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .232 in 11 starts at home. Houston has played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after getting shutout in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after getting shutout by an AL West rival. Furthermore, the Astros have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where two or fewer combined runs were scored. They counter with Valdez who has a 9-8 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 23 starts. The sabermetrics indicate he is meeting expectations given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.57 and 3.29 moving forward. He returns home to Minute Maid Park for the first time since he pitched a no-hitter against Cleveland on August 1st in an effort where he only walked one batter. He has thrived at home where he owns a 2.44 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 13 starts as opposed to his 4.43 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in ten starts on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home with Valdez on the mound priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros struggle against home against right-handed pitching -- they rank 25th and 22nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted handed pitching. And since July 1st, Houston ranks 27th and 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against righted-handed pitching. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (965) and the Houston Astros (966) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1)      lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (78-42) has won three games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 2-0 victory against the New York Yankees on Wednesday. San Francisco (64-57) has lost six of their last eight games after their 6-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta is a juggernaut right now — and all six of their victories in their last seven games have been by more than one run. They only managed three hits in their win against the Yankees on Wednesday -- but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games after not scratching out more than four hits in their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, they have won 53 of their last 77 games after winning their last contest — including winning nine of their last 13 games after a win during this current hot streak. They have also won 13 of their last 18 games after a day off. They stay at home where they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games at home. The Braves have also won 27 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite (more on that in the Final Take regarding their success in covering the -1.5 Run-Line). While Atlanta’s Achilles’ heel is their starting rotation that has been hit hard by the injury bug, their ace goes tonight. Strider has a 13-4 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.77 and 2.87 moving forward. He has been more effective at home at Truist Park where he has a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.24 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in 12 starts on the road. The Braves have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Strider on the hill with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They have also won 12 of their last 13 games this season with Strider pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -175 to -250 range. And in their last 12 games with Strider looking to extend a winning streak, Atlanta has won 11 of these contests. He faces a cold Giants’ lineup that is scoring 2.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .216 batting average, a .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .602. San Francisco ranks 26th and 27th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 30 of their last 48 games after scoring less than two runs in their last game including seven of their last eight games after scoring one run or less. San Francisco goes back on the road where they have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The Giants have also lost 62 of their last 87 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +200 or higher — and they have lost four of these last five situations. They counter with Cobb who has a 6-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 22 starts. The right-hander is struggling as of late after giving up six home runs in his three starts this month. He has a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .328 during that span. He has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.25 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in ten starts — but in his 12 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.96 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a .304 opponent’s batting average. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 15 games on the road with Cobb on the hill. He faces this Braves Murderer’s Row that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .291 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .910 during that span. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 66 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 39 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 35 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 26 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Giants have been priced as a money-line underdog only nine times this season — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line five times (with four upset wins and a single one-run loss). While San Francisco’s numbers are not evidence to support this play, I mention it because their four multiple run loss in those nine games (in a small sample size) is not enough of a red flag to dismiss the overwhelming evidence supporting the Braves in this situation. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (903) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (76-42) has won four of their last five games — as well as six of their last eight contests — after their 11-3 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of this series last night. New York (60-59) has lost three games in a row as well as five of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has lost 7 games in a row after allowing ten or more runs — and they have lost 6 straight games after a loss by eight or more runs. The Yankees have also lost 7 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent scored ten or more runs. New York has also lost 14 of their last 19 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games. Severino continues to go to the mound for this team given the recent injuries to Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes — but he has been a disaster. The right-hander holds a 2-7 record with an 8.06 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in 14 appearances this season. He has been even worse on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.89 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .373 in his eight games (seven starts) on the road. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 9 games with Severino starting on the road as an underdog. He faces a red-hot Braves lineup that is scoring 8.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .335 batting average, a .446 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .966. The Braves lead the MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage while ranking second in MLB Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they lead MLB since July 1st in both those categories. Atlanta has won 51 of their last 75 games after winning their last game — and they have won 31 of their last 44 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves scored ten or more runs now 16 times this season — and they have won 12 of their 15 prior games after scoring ten or more runs this season. They have also won 19 of their last 25 home games when priced as the favorite in the -175 to -250 price range. They counter with Elder who has an 8-4 record with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he enjoys a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 12 starts. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 16 games at home with Elder on the hill pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed pitchers with a .229 batting average, a .229 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .695. New York ranks 24th and 22nd in MLB this seasoning weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs-Created on the road against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 64 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 37 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 33 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 24 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Yankees have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 8 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher with just one of those three covers being via a one-run loss. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (971) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Atlanta (74-41) has won straight games — and four of their last five — after taking the opening game of their doubleheader with the Mets this afternoon by a 21-3 score. New York (52-63) has lost two in a row — and nine of their last ten — with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Braves crushed the Mets’ bullpen this afternoon to the tune of 16 runs in the 4 1/3 innings that New York used relievers — and some of those guys may need to be called on tonight. Atlanta has now won 24 of their last 30 games against fellow NL East rivals. They have won 19 of their last 25 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 28 of their last 42 games on the road when priced as the favorite at -125 or higher. The Braves have also won 25 of their last 34 games when priced as a -200 or higher favorite — and the number looks even better when taking the Run-Line that we are taking into account (I am saving that for the Final Take). Strider gets the start with his 12-4 record along with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.67 and 2.78 moving forward.  The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts as opposed to his 4.16 ERA in 12 starts at home. Atlanta has won 7 of their last 8 road games with Strider on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Mets lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .303 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .657. New York ranks 26th and 20th in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have lost 22 of their last 34 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, they have lost 31 of their last 39 games as a money-line underdog — and they are winless in their last 5 games at home priced as a money-line dog in the +150 to +200 range. They counter with Quintana who has an 0-3 record along with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in his four starts this season that was delayed as he recovered from rib surgery. The sabermetrics indicate he has been fortunate with those frontline numbers given his SIERA and xFIP of 5.01 and 4.95. The left-hander had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP last year for the Pirates and Cardinals — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.02 and 3.72 which contributes to the case that he is not to be trusted. Now he faces a red-hot Braves lineup licking their shops after entering the day scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .315 batting average, a .378 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .858 during that span all before plating 21 runners in Game One. And Atlanta crushes left-handed pitching as they lead MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank second in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: While the team trends referenced above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying, that specific data is outstanding. In the 62 instances that the Braves have been listed as a money-line favorite priced above my -150 threshold this season, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 35 times with 18 straight-up losses and nine wins by just one run. Even better, in their last 31 games when priced above -150, Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line 22 times with only one of their victories being by just one run. The Mets have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of the 8 occasions they have been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 (losing all eight times) — and they have lost by more than one run in 4 straight games when priced as a +145 or higher money-line dog. Let’s lower the investment price on Atlanta in this nightcap since if they win games like this, they overwhelmingly win the game by more than one run. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (905) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (906) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with a 1-0 victory against Jamaica in their Round of 16 match on Monday. England (W3-D1-L0) survived a 0-0 draw with Nigeria by taking that match via a 4-2 margin in penalty kicks in their Round of 16 Knockout Stage match on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had the Under in England’s scoreless match with the Nigeria Super Falcons. The Lionesses actually lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 0.9 to 1.2 margin. They were very fortunate to advance when considering that midfielder Lauren James drew a red card in the 87th minute. Not only did England have to fend off the Nigerian women for 33+ minutes before reaching the shootout, but they will now be without James in their next two matches as she serves her suspension. Her overreaction demonstrated the pressure on this team who won last year’s Euro Championship despite losing the xG battle in many of those contests including in the finals against Germany. England had the advantage of playing that tournament on home soil which I think makes them a bit overvalued now. Even worse, the loss of James continues the slow drip of talent loss from this side’s ideal starting XI. They are already playing this tournament without Leah Williamson who is their best defender. They are also without striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby. Now they lose James who has been their leading scoring in this event with three goals. The Lionesses have scored only eight times in their four matches — and their expected goals in those four matches drop to 7.2 xG. Furthermore, six of their eight goals were scored in their final Group Stage match against China which was a skewed result. Because England scored early in that match, the Chinese women had to break out of their preferred defensive posture to play aggressively since they needed a positive result to advance to the Knockout Stage. Instead, the Lionesses were able to exploit this change of tactics and score five more times — despite only generating 2.6 xG for the match. And while England has only allowed one goal on a penalty kick in this tournament, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is 3.1. Now here comes Colombia playing with house money after reaching the Quarterfinals of a Women’s World Cup for the first time in their history. Las Chicas Ponderosas are a talented side from a nation that takes their soccer very seriously. This is their second appearance in the Knockout Stage after losing to the United States in the Round of 16 in 2015. We had Jamaica on Monday against them —  and Colombia did lose the xG battle by a 1.2-0.9 margin. But it is fair to say they were the better side in the first half before taking the lead in the 51st minute from a skillful goal from Catalina Usme. And this group was resilient in holding off the Reggae Girlz in the later stages of that match. Jamaica had not conceded a goal in this tournament before that Usme goal — and they were a side that earned 0-0 draws with both France and Brazil. Las Chicas Ponderosas will be comfortable grinding out a low-scoring match since they prefer parking the bus before finding opportunities for counter-attacks. Their loss to Morocco in the Group Stage was, in part, because they had a tactical conflict with that team that wanted to play a similar approach. England will play aggressively — which is just what Colombia wants.

FINAL TAKE: The story of this World Cup is the emergence of the women’s programs in nations that have had strong men’s teams before investing resources to catch up with the North American and European women’s programs. Colombia has been lurking for years — and now they enjoy the catbird seat where a loss will not be deflating but a victory would be transcendent. All the pressure is on England with a group losing more players and who have only outscored four of their five (non-China) opponents by a 2-0 goal margin. I will be surprised if the Lionesses can score twice in regulation time. I will settle for a push if England wins by a 1-0 score while I expect a scoreless match (or maybe 1-1) after 90 minutes — and I will love Colombia pulling the upset (and NO, I do not recommend adding a little sprinkle on the upset because all those “sprinkles” add up to losses more often than not — I will just be happy to cash this winning ticket at South Point tomorrow morning). 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage by finishing in second place in Group F with their 0-0 draw with Brazil on Wednesday. Colombia (W2-D0-L1) won Group H despite coming off a 1-0 loss to Morocco on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia is a dangerous underdog when they can engage in the role of counter-attacking as they proved against Germany in their huge 2-1 upset victory against one of the tournament favorites who finished in second place at the Euro Championship last summer. But Las Chicas Ponderosas are not as comfortable in the role of the favorite where the tactics call for them to play on their front foot — as they demonstrated in their loss to Morocco. The Moroccan women were content in parking the bus and playing defense while waiting for their opportunities in the counter-attack. While Colombia generated 11 shots, only three were on target. Morocco had seven shots with five of them on target. Morocco won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.2-0.6 margin — so it was a legitimate upset victory for them. South Korea is the only opponent that Las Chicas Ponderosas generated a higher xG mark in the Group Stage. Colombia only produced 2.6 xG in the Group Stage — and their -0.8 net expected goal differential is the only negative mark for the eight betting favorites in the Knockout Stage. They are registering only 0.63 non-penalty kick expected goals per match along with a mere 0.33 Big Chances per match. This team is simply not comfortable controlling possession — they had the ball 60% of the time in their loss to Morocco after letting Germany control possession 67% of the time in their upset victory. Colombia ranks 16th of the 32 in the original field in host Scoring Chances and Shots on Target. Their back line will be without Real Sociedad defender Manuela Vanegas who got suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card. Jamaica will be thrilled to engage in a similar game plan as the Moroccans did against Colombia — and the Reggae Girlz may be even better at parking the bus and waiting for the opportunities to counter-attack. They will play a similar 4-4-2 formation that will settle in at the low block. Jamaica has not conceded a goal in this tournament which includes impressive scoreless draws against France and Brazil. Their 77 clearances are the most in this tournament. They have an outstanding keeper in Rebecca Spencer — the Tottenham goalie has 17 saves on the 17 shots on target she has faced. The Reggae Girlz are led by Allyson and Chantelle Swaby with the sister duo controlling the middle at center back. And while Jamaica has scored only one goal, their ability to score goals in the Knockout Stage now should not be underestimated. Forward Khadija Shaw scored 20 goals last season for Manchester City.

FINAL TAKE: The expectations Colombia has in this match may not be doing them any favors. This is the program’s second Knockout Stage match after losing to the USA by a 2-0 score in the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the 2015 tournament. But the Reggae Girlz are true underdogs in their first Knockout Stage match having to rely on a GoFundMe campaign to find the money to compete at this tournament after their financial requests were denied by the federation. This shapes up to be a low-scoring match with things being scoreless after 90 minutes highly likely — but I am not going to be surprised if the Jamaicans score the upset. 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Match of the Year with Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.

FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. THE SITUATION: Arizona (57-54) has won lost four straight games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (57-54) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Diamondbacks have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Arizona has scored no more than four runs in eight straight games — and they have not allowed more than four runs in seven straight contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing five straight games where they did not allow more than four runs. They have played 19 of their last 29 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total in Interleague play. Nelson gets the start with his 6-5 record along with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The right-hander has struggled at home at Chase Field where he has been saddled with a 8.01 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .356 in ten starts — but he has thrived away from that hitter’s ballpark as he sports a 2.67 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223 in 12 starts on the road. In his last five starts on the road, he owns a 1.87 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP while holding three of his opponents to just one run. The Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with Nelson pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a slumping Twins lineup that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .222 batting average, a .283 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .660 during that span. Minnesota has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games — but they have held four straight opponents to three runs or less with three of those opponents only scoring two runs. The Twins have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in Interleague play — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Maeda who has a 2-6 record along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 11 starts. Those frontline numbers are skewed by one disastrous start at home against the New York Yankees when he gave up ten runs in three innings of work. He went on the injured list after that effort with a tricep injury that kept him on the shelf for two months. Since his return to the mound in June, he has been outstanding with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts. His velocity is back up which has helped him strike out 51 batters in 37 2/3 innings — and he has struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. Maeda has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in seven starts — but take away that disaster against the Yankees, he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with Maeda on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: While Arizona ranks ninth and tenth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season — but they have dropped to 17th and 18th in those categories since the beginning of July. The Diamondbacks are scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 batting average, a .243 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .523 during that span. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (979) and the Minnesota Twins (980) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Kenta Maeda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Comber. THE SITUATION: San Diego (52-54) has won three straight games after their 5-3 loss at home against Texas yesterday. Colorado (41-64) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 2-0 win against Oakland on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Padres have held their last five opponents to three runs or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than three runs in four or more games in a row. San Diego has played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total after winning their last game. They have played five straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 11 or higher. Lugo gets the start looking to build on his 4-5 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been quite good since returning from a stint on the injured list last month. In his last seven starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. He has also been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 3.38 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .252 in eight starts as compared to his 3.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .262 in seven starts at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Lugo on the mound following a victory in their last game. He faces a Rockies team that leaves way too many runners on base. While Colorado ranks sixth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers, they only rank 29th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. The Rockies have fallen to ranking just 21st in MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage at home against right-handed pitchers — and they still rank 29th in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. This team has also traded away two of their best bats with C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk being shipped off to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Colorado has played 25 of their last 39 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after shutting out their previous opponent. The Rockies have also played 27 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored. And in their last 9 games at home when listed as a money-line underdog at +175 or higher, they have played 6 of these games Under the Total. They counter with Gomber who has an 8-8 record with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 21 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective lately as he has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less with three of those four starts being at home at Coors Field. Gomber has a 3.00 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP in his last six starts — and he has issued only two walks in his last seven starts! In his last four starts at home at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with Gomber on the mound priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He will be supported by a defense that has not committed an error in two straight games — and the Rockies have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after not committing an error in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank 19th in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (907) and the Colorado Rockies (908) listing both starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (52-52) was on a three-game winning streak before their 3-0 loss on the road against the White Sox in the second game of this series. Chicago (42-63) snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Guardians have not allowed more than three runs in four straight games. They have played 32 of their last 47 games Under the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 23 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow AL Central rivals. And in their last 52 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, they have played 32 of those games Under the Total. Allen gets the start looking to build on his 4-3 record along with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .220 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.15 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts at home. He faces a White Sox line that ranks 29th and 28th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 30th in those categories since June 1st. Chicago is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .233 batting average, a .262 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .655 during that span. The White Sox have scored three runs or less in three of their last four games. They have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. Chicago has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a game where three or more combined runs were scored. The White Sox have also played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. They counter with Clevinger who has been activated off the injured list for this start. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has been better at home where he owns a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in five starts as compared to his 4.78 ERA and a .245 opponent’s batting average in seven starts on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland ranks 22nd and 21st in MLB this season since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Guardians (915) and the Chicago White Sox (916) listing both starting pitchers Logan Allen and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (56-48) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-0 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-43) has lost three of their last four games after an 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played five straight Unders while not giving up more than three runs in those contests. But they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing five or more Unders in a row — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +175 to +250 price range. Williamson gets the ball with a 2-2 record along with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.07 and 5.10 moving forward. He has been less effective on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in five starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 win seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Dodgers lineup that is scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 batting average, a .375 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .877 during that span. Los Angeles ranks sixth and second this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers. They have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by six or more runs. The Dodgers have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games at home Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They counter with Miller who has a 6-1 record with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.93 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 in five starts as opposed to his 2.63 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 on the road. The Dodgers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank eighth in MLB since the beginning of May in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (959) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (960) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Bobby Miller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Arizona (55-47) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory at home against the Cardinals last night. St. Louis (45-57) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona was trailing 1-0 going into the bottom of the eighth inning before they scored three times to take a two-run lead. Kevin Ginkel then came on in the top of the ninth to secure the victory by registering his third save of the season as he seems to have become manager Torey Lovullo’s trusted closer at this moment. The Diamondbacks have won 24 of their last 36 games after their bullpen did not allow an earned run in their last game. They have also won 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than one run in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has won 31 of their last 54 games after winning their last game. They have won 23 of their last 34 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games after losing four of their last five games. They complete this series this afternoon in this getaway game at home where they have won 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Gallen gets the start boasting an 11-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a sterling 1.48 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.97 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 starts on the road. Arizona has won 20 of their last 25 games at home with Gallen on the mound. St. Louis has lost 14 of their last 22 games after blowing a save opportunity in their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Cardinals have lost 27 of their last 44 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They complete their seven-game road trip in this afternoon getaway game having lost 9 of their last 14 games after playing six or more games in a row on the road. St. Louis has lost 15 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Flaherty who has a 7-6 record with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 19 starts this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.70 and 4.41 moving forward. He has a 1.50 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in eight starts at home — and those numbers rise to a 1.55 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .289 in his 11 starts on the road. The Cardinals have lost 17 of their last 28 games with Flaherty on the hill on the road as an underdog. Flaherty also has a rough 5.66 ERA in his nine-day starts this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks rank eighth and tenth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighed Runs Created when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (955) listing both starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. THE SITUATION: San Diego (48-52) was on a two-game winning streak before their 3-1 loss at Detroit yesterday. Pittsburgh (43-56) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-5 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego had won four of their last five games before their loss to the Tigers yesterday. The Padres have held their last six opponents to four runs or less — and they have won 12 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than four runs in four or more games in a row. Darvish gets the start tonight looking to continue his recent good form. He has allowed only one earned run in his last two starts — posting a 0.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in those 12 innings while striking out 16 batters. He has a 7-6 record with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 17 starts this season — but the deeper sabermetrics indicate he has deserved better with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 3.77 moving forward. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.83 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in eight starts as opposed to his 4.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts on the road. San Diego has won 16 of their last 23 games at home when Darvish is on the hill priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games when Darvish is on the hill after giving up one earned run or less in two straight starts. He should continue his good run tonight against this Pirates team that ranks last in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .215 batting average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .634 in that span. The Pirates started well in April — but they have since cratered having lost 14 of their last 18 games this month. Pittsburgh has lost 27 of their last 38 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have lost 23 of their last 32 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They continue their road trip having lost 17 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games as a money-line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They counter with Priester who is making his second-career MLB appearance. He got his hard in his MLB debut last Monday as he allowed seven runs in 5 1/3 innings at home against Cleveland. The Pirates are very high on the 22-year-old — but he only had a 4.31 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings at Triple-A this season. He faces a hot-hitting Padres lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .759 OPS. San Diego ranks sixth and third this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. These two teams last played on June 29th when the Pirates completed a three-game sweep (all upsets wins at home) with a 5-4 win — but San Diego has won 12 of their last 14 games when looking to avenge three-straight upset losses to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego is inconsistent — but when they win, it usually is by multiple runs. In fact, in their 30 games when priced as a money-line favorite above my -150 price threshold, all 17 of their victories have been by one run. They have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 16 games when priced above -150. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 30 games this season priced as a money-pine underdog priced at +145 or higher with just two losses by just one run — and they have lost five of their last seven games (all by more than one run) under those circumstances. Let’s lower the investment price on the Padres by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (957) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Quinn Priester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-44) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-1 loss on the road against the A’s yesterday. Oakland (28-73) has won three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after scoring one run or less in their last game — including 12 of these last 18 circumstances this season. Houston completes their nine-game road trip today — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their previous seven games on the road. The Astros have also played 38 of their last 58 road games Under the Total when priced as a -125 or higher favorite. Brown gets the start with his 6-7 record along with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 18 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are promising with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.42 and 3.05 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.79 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts as compared to his 4.89 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276  in eight starts at home. Houston has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total with Brown pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. He will be supported by a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA in their last five games — and the Astros have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of 2.00 or lower in their last five games. Brown and the Houston pen face an A’s team that is only scoring 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .209 batting average. Oakland ranks 30th and 29th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one run in a victory against a divisional rival in their last game. The A’s have also played 14 of their last 23 games at home as an underdog priced from +150 to +200. They complete a ten-game home stand this afternoon — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing six or more games in a row at home. They counter with Medina who has a 3-7 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 13 games including nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be giving about a run less per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.62 and 4.47 moving forward. Most of the damage against him has taken place on the road where he has been saddled with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 32 2/3 innings — he has a more respectable 4.41 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in 32 2/3 innings at home. Furthermore, the right-hander has made an adjustment recently that is generating better results. He has introduced a sinker into his arsenal which he is throwing in place of his four-seamer — and he is using his slider more to offset this new pitch. Medina has a 3.12 ERA in his last five appearances with 28 strikeouts in those 26 innings. He faces an Astros lineup missing the injured Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve — they are scoring 4.3 Runs-Per-Games against right-handed starting pitchers with a .238 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .678.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Hunter Brown and Luis Medina. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (51-48) has won six of their last eight games after their 9-4 victory against the White Sox in the opening game of this series last night. Chicago (41-58) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota struggles against good teams — they have just a 25-32 record against teams with a .500 or better record. But the Twins do feast on bad teams as they have a 27-17 record against teams with a losing record after last night’s victory. They have won 10 of their 16 games this month. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games at home with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. And in their last 39 games when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 24 of these contests. Gray gets the start looking to get back on track after surrendering five and six earned runs in his last two starts. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games when Gray is on the mound after allowing five or more earned runs in two straight games. He has a 4-4 record with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in ten starts at home as compared to his 3.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in nine starts on the road. He should bounce back tonight against this White Sox team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .230 batting average, a .282 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .654. They rank 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Chicago continues to implode as they play their eighth straight game away from home. They have lost 10 of their 15 games this month — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games after playing their previous six games on the road. The White Sox have lost 21 of their last 35 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 30 of their last 47 games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They counter with Cease who has a 4-3 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 4.04 ERA in ten starts — but his ERA rises to a 4.33 ERA in his ten starts on the road. He also has a 4.52 ERA in his 11 starts under the lights at night. Cease has struggled this month with a 4.96 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a .299 opponent’s batting average in his three starts in July.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .882 during that span. After underwhelming with their bats most of the season, Minnesota ranks third in MLB this month in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (968) versus the Chicago White Sox (967) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Dylan Cease. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. THE SITUATION: New York (50-47) has lost four games in a row after their 7-3 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Wednesday. Kansas City (28-70) has lost five of their last seven games after their 3-0 loss at home against Detroit yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York is struggling right now — but returning home to Yankee Stadium should help after completing a six-game road trip. The Yankees have won 13 of their last 17 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games when priced from -175 to -200. New York has won 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. The Yankees miss the injured Aaron Judge who remains out with his toe injury — they have not scored more than three runs in their last three games. But New York has won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than three runs in three straight games. Schmidt gets the start as he looks to win his fourth straight start and improve on his 5-6 record along with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The right-hander has not allowed more than three earned runs in 11 starts — and he has a 2.83 ERA in his last ten starts. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.93 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 12 games (11 starts) as opposed to his 4.85 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .273 opponent’s batting average in eight starts on the road. He should thrive against a Royals team that ranks last in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they also rank last in those categories this month. Kansas City has lost 29 of their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest — and they have lost 21 of their last 26 games after scoring one run or less in their last game. Additionally, the  Royals have lost 12 straight games on the road where they scored one run or less in a loss to an AL Central rival. They only scored two runs in their previous game against the Tigers — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than two runs in two straight games. On the road, they are scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .225 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .631. They counter with Marsh who has lost all three of his starts since being promoted to the major leagues. The right-hander has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in his 15 innings of work. He is walking too many batters by averaging 4.8 bases-on-balls per nine innings. He has also already served up five homers.

FINAL TAKE: The team trends mentioned above do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying with this play. The Yankees may be struggling — but they are still taking care of business when priced as a big favorite. New York has won covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their 15 wins when priced higher than -150 (while getting upset five times in those situations. Kansas City has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 33 of their 49 games this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost by one run in these circumstances five times while pulling off the upset just 15 times. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with New York Yankees (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (913) listing both starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Alec Marsh. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. THE SITUATION: Detroit (42-52) has lost two of their last three games after their 11-10 loss on the road against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (28-68) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Detroit has bounced back to win 11 of their last 17 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest — and they have won 24 of their last 39 games after a high-scoring game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Tigers have still won 8 of their last 12 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games overall when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. Rodriguez gets the start coming off a solid outing where he allowed two runs and three hits in five innings of work at Seattle on Friday in his second start since returning from the injured list. The lefty has a 5-5 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 13 starts — and he has been consistent when pitching on the road where he has a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts. His teams have won 23 of their 31 road games when he is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Kansas City has lost 11 of their last 12 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after scoring 10 or more runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Royals have lost 8 of their last 12 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest. Kansas City took advantage of almost all their scoring opportunities last night as they only stranded three runners — but they have then lost 11 of their last 12 games after stranding three or fewer runners in their last contest. The Royals have still lost 29 of their last 42 games at home with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have lost 24 of their last 36 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Yarbrough who has returned from his extended time on the shelf after getting nailed in the head by a line drive in May. The left-hander has a 2-4 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 32 2/3 innings. But while he has a respectable 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .262 opponent’s batting average in his 17 2/3 innings on the road, he has been saddled with a 7.36 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in his 14 2/3 innings at home. His teams have lost 16 of his 25 starts at home when the Total is set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit ranks 14th and 13th respectively since June 1st on the road against left-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created — and they rank 11th and 9th in those analytics since the beginning of July. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Detroit Tigers (917) versus the Kansas City Royals (918) listing both starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (57-36) was on an eight-game winning streak before their 6-4 loss at home to the Dodgers in the opening game of this Interleague series. Los Angeles (54-39) won for the seventh time in their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORIOLES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Baltimore had scored at least five runs in five straight games before only scoring the four runs last night. The Orioles have won 22 of their last 35 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by two runs or less. They have also won 21 of their last 32 games after winning five or six of their last seven contest. In their last 43 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150, they have won 31 of those games including 14 of their last 19 at home priced up to -150. They have a big pitching edge tonight with Wells on the mound. The right-hander has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 18 games (17 starts). He has been a model of consistency by allowing two runs or less in eight straight starts since late May. He boasts a 2.83 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP during that span. Wells has also been more effective at home at Camden Yards where he has a 2.57 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .190 in nine starts as opposed to his 3.88 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in his nine appearances on the road. Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games with Wells on the mound priced in the +/- 125 money-line price range. The Dodgers are slumping this month with their bats — they rank 17th and 19th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The injuries that have ravaged the Los Angeles pitching staff require manager Dave Roberts to turn to Grove tonight despite his 1-2 record, 6.89 ERA, and a 1.55 WHIP in 47 innings. He has allowed four earned runs in five of his last seven appearances. The right-hander has been solid at home where he has a 4.83 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in 31 2/3 innings including five starts in his seven appearances — but in his 15 1/3 innings on the road which includes three starts in his four games, he has an 11.15 ERA, a 2.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .427. Los Angeles has lost 13 of their last 21 games on the road as a money-line underdog — and they have lost 14 of their last 21 games as a dog priced up to +150. The Dodgers are only hitting .237 on the road with a .318 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .753.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles rank ninth and seventh at home against right-handed starting pitchers in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since June 1st. 25* MLB TBS-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Baltimore Orioles (974) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (973) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Wells and Michael Grove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for  Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.

FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Guatemala in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals the day before with a 2-0 win against Costa Rica. This match is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Mexico is playing better and with more energy under new head coach Jaime Lozano. After a disappointing third-place finish in the CONCACAF Nations League this year — including an embarrassing 3-0 loss to the United States last month — led to  Diego Cocca getting sacked. El Tri only won three of their six matches in that competition. Mexico lost their final group stage match against Qatar by a 1-0 score — but I am not reading too much into that since El Tri was resting players after essentially clinching first place in Group B. They also got a bit unlucky in that match. But I am not going to read too much from their 4-0 victory against Honduras nor their 3-1 win against Haiti in the group stage either as those are both weak opponents. The Costa Rica squad they played in the Quarterfinals is down from previous incarnations of that national team. Facing the Reggae Boyz now will be Mexico’s toughest test since playing the USMNT last month. Jamaica reached the Semifinals of the Gold Cup for the fourth time in the last five tournaments — and this might be their best squad. The Reggae Boyz got a big injection of attacking energy with Demarai Gray choosing to leave England’s national team to play for Jamaica as a dual citizen. The Everton forward has scored two goals and added two assists in this tournament. He is joined up top by Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey who has two assists. And while Michail Antonio has not scored in over a year in international play, the star striker from West Ham can explode at any time after leading the Hammers to the Europa League title in the spring. Overall, the Reggae Boyz have six players who play in the English Premier League. They finished in second place in this tournament in 2015 and 2017. Jamaica has scored first in all four of their matches with 11 goals overall going from nine different players. But this squad remains stout defensively led by an outstanding veteran keeper in Andre Blake. They have only conceded twice including once in their impressive 1-1 draw with the United States in their opening group stage match.

FINAL TAKE: The last time Jamaica beat Mexico was by a 1-0 score in a friendly back in 2017. But the Reggae Boyz managed two draws in the last two meetings between these sides which were both CONCACAF Nations League matches with the most recent contest being in March. Jamaica can win this match — and they can certainly keep the score tied going into extra time (ensuring we cover the goal-line spread after the 90-minute regulation time). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. THE SITUATION: New York (48-39) won the first two games of this series before their 6-3 loss at home to the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (50-35) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: New York had a 2-0 lead going into the sixth inning yesterday — but Nick Ramirez and Michael King gave up four runs in that inning to give Baltimore a lead that they would not relinquish. The Yankees have won 6 of their last 9 games after a blown save in their last game. They have also won 4 games in a row after losing their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after getting upset by an AL East rival in their last game. After struggling last month after losing Aaron Judge to his toe injury, the Bronx Bombers are playing better as of late. They have won five of their last seven games — and they are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game during that stretch with an OPS of .809. New York has won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Yankees won 8 of their last 13 games at home as an underdog including five of their eight home games as a money-line dog this season. Severino gets the start looking to bounce back from allowing seven earned runs in four innings in St. Louis against the Cardinals on Saturday. He has a 1-3 record this season with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in eight starts. Most of the damage has taken place on the road where the right-hander has a 9.27 ERA, a 2.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .360 in five starts. But in his three starts at home, Severino has a 2.55 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182. In his career at Yankee Stadium, he is very comfortable sporting a 3.41 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 in 335 innings. His previous start was at home against the explosive Texas Rangers and he pitched six scoreless innings against them. New York has won 10 of their last 13 games at home with Severino their starting pitcher. Now he faces a slumping Orioles team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average, a .279 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost six of seven games before their win last night. But they have lost 44 of their last 59 games after upsetting a division rival in their last game including seven of their 11 contests under those circumstances this season. They counter with Bradish who has a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.00 and 3.83 moving forward. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 2.81 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in seven starts — but in his eight starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.46 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in eight starts. The Orioles have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road. They have also lost 12 of their 18 games against AL East rivals with Bradish on the hill. Baltimore has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Orioles have been upset in their last 4 games when priced as the money-line favorite. The Yankees have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their last 24 games as a money-line underdog with 14 upset wins and another 4 losses by just one run. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (963) listing both starting pitchers Luis Severino and Kyle Bradish. Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. THE SITUATION: Toronto (45-37) has won two in a row — and six of their last eight contests — after their 2-1 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Boston (40-42) has lost five games in a row after their 2-0 loss to Miami on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto is playing better baseball as of late as they are finally beginning to meet their huge preseason expectations. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have won 55 of their last 76 games at home at the Rogers Centre against teams with a losing record. Berrios gets the start looking to build on his 8-5 record along with a 1.22 WHIP in 16 starts. The right-hander struggled last season with a 5.23 ERA even though the deeper sabermetrics indicated he should have been giving up more than a run fewer per start. He started slowly this season by giving up 14 runs in his first two starts — but in his 14 starts since, he boasts a 2.74 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 85 1/3 innings. He has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in six starts as opposed to his 4.30 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 in ten starts on the road including those opening two clunkers back in April. Toronto has won 17 of their last 19 games at home with Berrios on the mound and is priced as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this Red Sox team that ranks 28th in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox managed only four hits against the Marlins yesterday — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after failing to generate more than four base hits in their last game. Boston has lost 39 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. They have only scored four combined runs in their last four games while not topping two runs in any of these games — and they have then lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They have also lost 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They counter with Paxton who has a 3-1 record with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in eight starts. But while the left-hander has done his best work at home this season with a 1.69 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in three starts at Fenway Park, those numbers rise to a 4.10 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .208 in eight starts on the road. The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 37 of their last 53 road games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 20 of their last 26 road games with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. Boston has also lost 20 of their last 28 games against the Blue Jays — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games against them in Toronto. The Blue Jays rank eighth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers. In their last seven games, Toronto is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average and a .796 slugging percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays have lost their last four games against the Red Sox after an 11-5 loss in Fenway on May 24th. Toronto has won 10 of their last 15 games when playing with double-revenge — and they have won 5 straight games when avenging a loss where they allowed ten or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (964) versus the Boston Red Sox (964) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and James Paxton. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (42-38) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 3-1 victory in the second game of their series with the Orioles. Baltimore (48-30) was on a three-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. They have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Cincinnati has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Weaver who has a 1-2 record with a 6.86 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where he has a 1.71 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .323 in six starts as opposed to his 1.47 WHIP and a .295 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. He has been crushed this month with a 10.80 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .368 in his four starts in June. He faces an Orioles team that ranks sixth and fifth respectively in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank third in both those metrics since the beginning of June. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a loss — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Gibson who has an 8-5 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 16 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.74 and 4.48 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective at home either where he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275 in seven starts as opposed to his 4.22 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .263 in nine starts on the road. And in his four starts this month, Gibson has a 5.75 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .275.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds rank sixth in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (971) and the Baltimore Orioles (972) listing both starting pitchers Luke Weaver and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-27) has won three games in a row — and 11 in their last 12 contests — after their 4-1 win at home against the Twins in the opening game of this series. Minnesota (40-40) has lost two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta is flexing their muscles as perhaps the best team in baseball while being led by Ronald Acuna who is on his way to his first MVP season. They should continue to build off their momentum tonight as they have won 35 of their 50 games this season after winning their previous game — and they have won 38 of their last 54 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. They have also won 21 of their last 29 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Braves have won 37 of their last 52 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 8 home games in Interleague play. Atlanta has also won 42 of their last 62 home games against teams with a winning record. Elder gets the start looking to build on his 5-1 record with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts. The 24-year-old may not have the elite stuff that leads to ERA crowns — but his sinker is nasty that is generating ground balls in 57.1% of the batted balls he is allowing into play so he should continue to be a high-end starter for the Braves. In his eight starts at night, he has a 2.16 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Atlanta has won 9 of their last 13 home games with Elder on the mound and is priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that ranks 26th in MLB on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since May 1st. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 36 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Twins are scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .218 Batting Average, a .288 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have lost 10 of their last 15 games after scoring no more than one run in their last game. They have not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — but Minnesota has lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in three straight games and they have lost 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than four runs in five straight games. They have lost 37 of their last 53 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games in Interleague play. They counter with Ryan who has an 8-4 record with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 15 starts. The 27-year-old right-hander is enjoying a breakout season and comes off a complete game shutout at home against Boston last Thursday — but Minnesota has lost 4 of their 6 games this season when Ryan is following up a start where he did not allow more than an earned run. The deeper sabermetrics do call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.69 moving forward — and he does have a 3.45 ERA in his four starts this month so the Regression Gods seem to be making their impression known. He has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.70 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .185 in seven starts — but he has been more hittable on the road where those numbers rise to a 3.26 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in eighth starts. The Twins have lost 16 of their last 22 games as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 10 of their last 13 games against the Braves.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta may have the best lineup in MLB — and they are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .308 Batting Average, a .381 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .967. They have won 19 of their last 26 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 38 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Braves lead MLB this month in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (924) versus the Minnesota Twins (923) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Joe Ryan. Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 9:40 PM ET on  Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. THE SITUATION: Seattle (37-39) has lost two games in a row after their 3-2 loss in Baltimore to the Orioles yesterday. Washington (30-47) has won two straight games after their 8-3 win at San Diego on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. They return home where they have won 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Castillo gets the start looking to build on his 4-6 record with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been at his best at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in six starts on the road. After experiencing a drop in the velocity of his fastball at the beginning of the season, he is now averaging 97 miles per hour with his four-seamer while topping out at 99 MPH at times which is right in line with his velocity at his peak last season. In his last six starts, Castillo has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in those 35 2/3 innings. Now he gets a tasty matchup against a Nationals team that ranks 27th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers this month. They have lost 43 of their last 62 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Despite their two-game winning streak, Washington has still lost 15 of their last 20 games — and they have lost 37 of their last 52 games after a win. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row. They stay on the road where they have lost 8 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Williams counters for the Nationals with his 4-4 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.81 and 4.84 moving forward. In his four starts this month, he has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .294 which is right in line with those analytics. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .347 — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 4.42 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .291. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Williams on the mound with the Total set from 7-8.5. He faces a Mariners team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has won 40 of their last 55 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. While these team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play, the Mariners have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their 13 victories this season when priced above -150. Washington has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their 22 losses when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. Let’s lower the investment price by taking advantage of the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Trevor Williams. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (43-33) has won four games in a row after their 8-7 victory at home against the Astros yesterday. Houston (41-36) has lost two games in a row and seven of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is beginning to heat up — and they tend to keep building off their momentum when they start to get rolling like this when playing at home. The Dodgers have won 51 of their last 64 games at home after winning three or more games in a row — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also won 49 of their last 70 games at home against teams with a winning record. This season, Los Angeles has won 15 of their last 19 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gonsolin gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander has been consistently outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.26 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .123 in his career 32 games (31 starts) in his career spanning 163 innings. The Dodgers have won 25 of those 31 career Gonsolin starts at Chavez Ravine. He should pitch well against this Astros team that has a .237 Batting Average with a .299 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston ranks just 14th and 13th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when playing on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank just 20th and 19th in those metrics since the beginning of June. The Astros have lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Houston has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 9 games after a loss by just one run. They have also lost 7 of their last 11 games when attempting to avenge a loss by one run. The Astros have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against teams with a winning record. They have lost 6 in a row overall to teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games in Interleague play. The counter with Brown who has a 6-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP  in 14 starts. The 25-year-old right-hander started the season strong with a 2.37 ERA along with a 1.05 WHIP in his five starts in April. But since the beginning of May, the rookie has struggled with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last nine starts. Brown is only inducing swinging strikes 10.7% of the time which is below the MLB average. The league seems to have caught up with his pitches after his great start.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers rank 5th and 3rd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 5th in both categories since the beginning of May. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) versus the Houston Astros (929) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Hunter Brown. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (38-26) has lost two games in a row after their 5-1 loss to Atlanta yesterday. New York (34-40) has lost four of their last five games after a 10-8 loss at Houston on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia had won six games in a row before their last two games to the juggernaut Braves — and they have still won 13 of their last 17 games. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They have been dominant at home where they have won 39 of their last 58 games at Citizens Bank Park. They have also won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Walker gets the ball looking to build on his outstanding effort at Oakland where he held the A’s to just one earned in eight innings of work last Friday. Walker’s teams have won 13 of their last 14 games when he is following up a start where he allowed one earned run or less. For the season, the right-hander has a 7-3 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 15 starts. He has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.25 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .287 in nine starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Mets team that has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game. Additionally, the Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 road games after allowing nine or more runs in their last game — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored. They have also lost 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They have also lost 20 of their last 27 games on the road. They counter with Senga who has a 6-4 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The 30-year-old fork-baller has thrived at home where he sports a 2.52 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .164 in seven starts — but he has been saddled with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in six starts on the road. He faces a Phillies team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have lost 24 of their last 33 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games as an underdog. 25* MLB National League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (906) versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Taijuan Walker and Kodai Senga. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (34-37) has lost seven games in a row after their 8-0 loss at home to the Cubs yesterday. Chicago (34-38) has won six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh should bounce back with an inspired effort tonight after getting embarrassed last night. The Pirates have won 9 of their last 11 home games after a loss by eight or more runs — and they have won 26 of their last 40 home games after allowing eight or more runs in their last game. They have also still won 11 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a losing record. Oviedo gets the start tonight looking to build on his 3-6 record along with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 in seven starts as compared to his 5.08 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in seven starts on the road. He should pitch well against a Cubs team that has lost 13 of their last 18 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has lost 11 of their last 17 games after a win by eight or more runs — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games after a win by eight or more runs against an NL Central rival. The Cubs have also lost 15 of their last 21 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. Chicago has lost 19 of their last 27 games on the road despite their win yesterday — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in their last 12 road games when priced in the +/- 125 price range, they have lost 8 of those contests. They counter with Stroman who has an 8-4 record with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 15 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander is a prime candidate for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.96 and 3.62 moving forward. Stroman has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.25 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .162 in eight starts — but those numbers rise to a 2.72 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226 in seven starts on the road. Chicago has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs’ offense is struggling without the injured Cody Bollinger in the middle of their lineup. While they rank 20th and 21st this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers, they fall to 26th and 27th in those metrics since May — and they are just 28th and 29th in those categories on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. The Pirates are middle of the pack at 16th and 17th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching this month. While I think Pittsburgh are live dogs to pull the upset, I prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Pirates (954) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (953) listing both starting pitchers Johan Oviedo and Marcus Stroman. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations League. THE SITUATION: Canada advanced to the Finals of this competition with their 2-0 win against Panama in the Semifinals on Thursday. The United States reached the Finals with a 3-0 win against Mexico in their Semifinals match on Thursday. The match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE CANADA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It was a very emotional match for the USMNT against their biggest rival in Mexico three days ago. There were fights in the stands, aggression on the pitch, and plenty of red cards got issued. The Americans dominated the match — but it was against an El Tri side far from full strength with Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lozano, and Tecatito all not on active roster for these competitions. Not only are those players three of the best on the Mexican national team, but they are also veteran leaders of the squad for years. Given the red card situation from Thursday, the Stars and Stripes will play this match without midfielder Weston McKenzie and fullback Sergino Dest. McKenzie is one of the best players on the team who starts for Juventus in Serie A. Dest is one of the young emerging stars for the team who plays internationally for Barcelona. An emotional letdown after that victory against El Tri is a real possibility. This is an American team in transition as it begins to prepare for the 2026 World Cup as the host nation. It was announced that Gregg Berhalter will return as the manager after six months away from the team after the 2022 World Cup in the fall. B.J. Callaghan serve as the interim manager tonight in his second match as the caretaker for the team after Anthony Hudson initially served as the temporary manager. USA has talent with Folarin Balogun having made his national team debut on Thursday. He joins Giovanni Reyna who has yet to resolve his controversy with Berhalter that resulted in his not playing in the World Cup. The Americans are led by Christian Pulisic who scored twice on Thursday. But the face of this generation of Team USA could not hold a starting job for a struggling Chelsea side in the English Premier League this season and will move to another professional club. Pulisic will not be the best player on the pitch tonight — more on that in a moment. On the surface, there are reasons for optimism for the USMNT after reaching the Knockout Stage at the World Cup before losing to the Netherlands by a 3-1 score. Their nil-nil draw with England in the Group Stage was seen as a major triumph. But the USA also settled for a draw with an underwhelming Wales side — and their only victory was against an Iran side that was one of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition. Canada has beaten five of the last six CONCACAF opponents they have played after their victory against Panama on Thursday. Manager John Herdman played the long game in that match as well by having Alphonso Davies come off the bench — and he immediately scored at the 69-minute mark to put that match away. The Bayern Munich midfielder is the best player in this contest tonight — and he is joined by a talented forward in Jonathan David who is Lille’s top striker in Ligue 1. Les Rouges have several players who play internationally — and they have good cohesion having played for Hardman for years. They went into the World Cup with high expectations but could not get over the hump playing in a very difficult group. They lost by 1-0 and 2-1 scores to Belgium and Morocco. They took a 1-0 lead against Croatia before losing by a 4-1 score. Their goal for the 2026 World Cup will be to reach the Knockout Stage (hopefully with an easier Group Stage draw) and perhaps reach the Quarterfinals. Success at the international level is the next challenge for this side. But when playing fellow CONCACAF teams, Canada is confident. They finished in first place in the World Cup qualifying stage for CONCACAF. Their 11 goals in Nations League play are the most in the competition. Les Rouges will be content to play back and go on the counter-attack led by Davies who is one of the fastest players in the world. The USMNT will control possession — but they are cohesion issues to work out with the mix of Pulisic and Reyna with Balogun and they have been vulnerable to counter-attacking tactics like Wales in their opening World Cup match last fall.

FINAL TAKE: Upsetting the United States would be a huge accomplishment since the Americans have won the last two CONCACAF titles in the 2021 Gold Cup and the 2019 inaugural CONCACAF Nations League. But Canada won the last meeting between these teams with a 2-0 victory in January 2022 in the World Cup qualifying stage. While that match was in Canada, they did earn a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in the US in July of 2021. Les Rouges have not beaten Team USA on American soil since July of 1957 — but the home-field edge for the USMNT will not be overwhelming tonight. Canada just played at Allegiant Stadium on Thursday so there is familiarity with the pitch. And the mood here in Las Vegas is tepid after the violence in the stands and ensuing traffic jams outside the stadium. Mexico was the big match — now it’s “just the (nice) Canadians” — but the Americans are the team with the bullseye on their jersey for our neighbors up north. Finally, remember that all we need is a tie score after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time) to cash this ticket. If this match goes for extra time or is settled by penalty kicks, we win. 25* CONCACAF Nations League  Match of the Year with Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610).  Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (52) versus the Florida Panthers (51) in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (66-26-11) has won four of their last five games after their 3-2 victory on the road against the Panthers on Saturday. Florida (55-40-7) has lost four of their last five games as they now trail attempt to stave off elimination trailing 3-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Many bettors will be tempted to zig-zag by backing Florida in this game because it is a simple and easy formula —  but what I observed was a beaten team in the waning moments of Game Four. The Panthers got their first power play opportunity with 17 seconds left in game after Alex Pietrangelo drew a delay of game penalty by knocking the puck into the stands. With a six-on-four advantage with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky pulled Florida could not beat Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill in a furious fury as time expired. Frustrated, Brandon Montour of the Panthers skated a few feet forward to cheat shot Vegas’ Brayden McNabb with his back turned. His actions triggered a post-game melee that even Hill got involved with for a few moments before getting out of there. That event provided a synopsis of this series: Florida, the bully, now getting bullied (and out-maneuvered) by a season Golden Knights team. The Panthers' physical style had great success against Toronto and Carolina en route to their Eastern Conference Finals triumph. But this mentality along with the commitment to forechecking is standard operating procedure to play against for this Golden Knights team that has learned to engage and thrive with these tactics since their inaugural season in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings became the standard bearer for this approach a decade ago— and the San Jose Sharks adopted it. The Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer later became the coach for the Knights — and it was the DeBoer’s latest team the Dallas Stars that Vegas had to beat in the Western Conference Finals. The underlying metrics support the Golden Knights’ dominance in this series. They registered 3.7 expected goals (xG) in Game Four while holding Florida to 2.49 xG. In their 3-2 overtime loss on the road in Game Three, they won the xG battle by a 3.71-2.9 margin. The only game that the Golden Knights lost the xG numbers was in Game Two by a narrow 2.84-2.65 margin. The scoreboard has Vegas taking that game by a 7-2 score (showing the limitations of xG as not the end-all, be-all). For the series, the Golden Knights are dominating Florida by a 14.85-10.82 xG margin. And now Matthew Tkachuk is hurt with a left shoulder that seems to be a by-product of the hit he took in Game Three. Despite trailing in the third period, he stayed on the bench for 10:41 straight minutes before going on the ice late in that game. He did not practice on Monday and is questionable to play. Even if he plays, he will not be 100%. His three overtime-winning goals have been critical for the Panthers to win all seven of their overtime games in these playoffs. Florida’s success in winning close games obscures that they have actually been outscored this postseason. Is this a team that simply rode the hot goaltending of Bobrovsky? The Panthers will have resolve tonight with the confidence that they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. But that was a divisional rivalry against a Bruins team playing with tons of pressure after their historic regular season. Florida did win last year’s President’s Trophy — but this is still a team that lacks deep playoff experience before now. This Golden Knights team has been building to this moment since their expansion season when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Washington. This team has been underrated by the analytics and the oddsmakers entering the postseason given all the injuries they sustained during the regular season — most notably with Mark Stone missing most of the season. Before Jack Eichel arrived, he was the team’s best player. Now he anchors a third line away from the Eichel line that is thriving with Jonathan Marchessault. Vegas may have the best fourth line in the NHL. And the other forward line involves William Karlsson, the best offensive player on the 2016-17 squad that reached the Cup Finals — and who is the team’s best defensive forward. Back at home, head coach Bruce Cassidy has the advantage of the last-line choice — so he can ensure Karlsson is always playing against Tkachuk who only scored once in the first two games in this series in Las Vegas. Remember, it was Karlsson that was critical for the Knights’ slowing down Connor McDavid in the Western Conference Semifinals against Edmonton. Vegas outscored the Panthers by a whopping 12 to 4 margin in the first two games at home in this series. They have won 20 of their last 26 games at home. Additionally, the Golden Knights have won 20 of their last 29 games after a win by one goal — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after a win on the road by one goal. Hill continues to exceed expectations — but the unsung heroes are his supporting cast willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots. In Game Four, Vegas blocked 30 shots to Florida’s 15 blocks. And Cassidy deserves tons of credit for implementing a defensive scheme that operates as a passive 1-4 zone approach from the New Jersey Devils of last decade. It has allowed the Knights to continually have success despite rotating goaltenders all season.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has lost 9 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge a loss by one goal to their opponent — and they have lost 7 in a row in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights. The money-line price opened in the -145 price range — and I released the play soon after. News of the Tkachuk’s injury has pushed the price up to the -160s range, which is above my -150 price threshold. That threshold is a guideline rather than a rule written in stone. It helps keep me from investing in pricy favorites which can be Fool’s Gold. If you can’t get a price at -150 or lower, it’s fine — and I still recommend the play. While the early bird catches the worm, dealing with line movement is part of the business. Under the short-term microscope of a Stanley Cup Finals game, the price is fine as I expect Lord Stanley’s Cup to be raised on Tuesday. 25* NHL Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (52) versus the Florida Panthers (51). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (58-48) has lost six of their last eight games after their 108-95 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Denver (68-33) has won nine of their last ten games while taking a 3-1 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things are dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they should be a tough out. I think the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat are off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark has improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena last Sunday, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. Don’t be surprised if Miami breaks out of the shooting slump they experienced in Miami. The Heat have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They have perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver has been great all season — but one of the flaws of this group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it will not help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.    

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (521) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. THE SITUATION: Boston (32-33) has lost three of their last four games — and six of their last eight — after a 3-1 loss on the road against the Yankees on Saturday. New York (38-28) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yankees lineup is slumping without Aaron Judge who is on the injured list with a toe injury. New York is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average, a .250 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .661 during that span. They have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They beat the Red Sox by a 3-2 score in Game One on Friday — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where neither team scored more than three runs. They have also played 4 straight Unders after winning their previous game. The Yankees have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Schmidt gets the ball looking to build on his 2-6 record with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.88 and 3.93 moving forward. The right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305 in five starts. Schmidt has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eight starts at night — and New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Schmidt as their starting pitcher in a night game. He faces a Mets team that has played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston is scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .223 Batting Average, a .307 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .658. They have not scored more than three runs in four straight games and in seven of their last eight contests. The Red Sox have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog up to +150. They counter with Bello who has a 3-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.85 and 3.77 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in three starts as compared to his 4.23 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .284 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home. Boston has played 5 straight Unders on the road with Bello pitching with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range. The Red Sox have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston ranks 23rd in MLB in both weighted On Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed starting pitchers since May 1st. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (915) and the New York Yankees (916) listing both starting pitchers Brayan Bello and Clarke Schmidt. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss on the road against the Panthers on Thursday. Florida (55-39-7) ended their two-game losing streak to win their first game in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After giving up 12 combined goals in the first two games in this series, head coach Paul Maurice changed the Panthers’ approach in this series by being willing to grind out a lower-scoring game. Florida only peppered the Golden Knights’ goaltender Adin Hill with 23 shots. But the Panthers are losing in the special teams battle in this series. Vegas has scored six goals on the power play in this series while converting 35.3% of the time against Florida when they have the man advantage. Both their goals on Thursday were on the power play. The formula for success for the Panthers has become clear: stop trying to out-muscle the Golden Knights, settle for lower-scoring games, and make it a battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Hill. Florida was able to bully Toronto and Carolina — but Vegas is well-versed in playing heavy hockey so these tactics are old hat to them. Bobrovsky had his best game in this series as he stopped 25 of the 27 shots he faced. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner had +1.71 Goals-Saved-Above-Expectation in Game Three. While it is too much to ask for Bobrovsky to reproduce the .954 save percentage he enjoyed against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes, the Florida approach has shifted to play with less aggression with more attention to defense to help him out. Vegas only managed 1.62 expected goals when playing at five-on-five even strength. Now the message from Maurice is to take fewer penalties. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, Florida has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when hosting the Golden Knights. Vegas entered this series seeming to struggle with their Power Play Kill Unit in the postseason — but much of that is due to having to deal with the historically elite power play of the Edmonton Oilers this season. Connor McDavid and company scored 14 power-play goals in 23 chances in the Western Conference Semifinals. The Golden Knights have been perfect in this series by thwarting the Panthers in all 12 of their power play chances. Hill played his worst game in this series by allowing three goals — but he did not play badly, per se, as he posted a -0.1 GSAx indicating he was about average. I do not see a sudden blow-up coming from Hill since he is protected by head coach Bruce Cassidy’s sophisticated defensive system which is a passive version of the old New Jersey Devils’ 1-4 scheme. Cassidy is happy to have his team counter-attack with all their scoring talent. We had the Over in Game Three as I expected Florida to come out very aggressive (and perhaps the early injury to Matthew Tkachuk compelled them to change tactics). But after attempting 35 and 31 shots in the first two games of this series, the Panthers only took those 23 shots on Thursday including the game-winner in overtime. On the other hand, the 27 shots Vegas had in Game Three was their lowest number in the series. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 22 of their last 35 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 Game Fours in a series Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss by just one goal to their opponent. 25* NHL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (49) and the Florida Panthers (50). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City reached the Finals of the UEFA Champions League after a 4-0 victory at home against Real Madrid on May 17th that cemented their 5-1 aggregate victory. Inter Milan beat AC Milan in the second leg of the Semifinals showdown with their crosstown rivals to advance with a 3-0 aggregate score.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan completed their Serie A campaign last Saturday in a 1-0 win at Torino in a match where they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.55 to 0.79 margin. Le Nerazzurri are historically one of the top two sides in Italy — and perhaps they are top-ten in the world over the last five or so years. But this year’s club was the beneficiary of some good fortune in the Champions League. They did survive a difficult Group Stage that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona — beating Barcelona at home in early October ended up being the difference for them after losing both matches to the Bundesliga giants. Their draw in the Knockout Stage was as good as can ever be expected. They got FC Porto in the Round of 16 and then Benfica in the Quarterfinals. After disposing of those two clubs from the Primeira League of Portugal, they then drew fellow Serie A competitor AC Milan who was missing their best striker Rafael Leo in the first leg. They also got both those matches in their San Siro home stadium which they share with AC Milan. Le Nerazzurri finished only tied for third place in Serie A this season — and they were fifth in that league with a W9-D3-L7 record on the road. They have an older roster featuring the 37-year-old Edin Dzeko, the 34-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and the 30-year-old Romelu Lukaku coming off the bench. While the 25-year-old Lautaro Martinez is their best player and could be destined for a big contract in the English Premier League someday, Lukaku and Mkhitaryan are EPL castaways at this point in their careers. The quality of play in Serie A (and the Primeira League) is a few notches below the level of play in the EPL that Man City dominated. The Cityzens are looking to achieve a historical treble with the EPL title, last week's FA Cup title, and now the European Championship. That Red Devils team they played last week is probably better than this Inter Milan side. There is a route for victory for Le Nerazzuri with their 5-3-2 defensive structure and their outstanding keeper Andre Onana keeping them in a low-scoring match. But if — and when — Man City scores, then Inter Milan will have to eventually shift out of their defensive approach which will open things up for the Sky Blues to counter-attack with more scoring opportunities. Man City was on a 25-match unbeaten streak through clinching the EPL title last month. Ignore their recent results outside the FA Cup title last week since manager Pep Guardiola deployed a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury to prepare for these two huge matches this month. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. After not scoring last Saturday against Manchester United, he could be in store for a big match after being brought in last summer specifically in being the final piece to bring the Champions League title to the club. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.

FINAL TAKE: Guardiola was brought into Man City to bring the fabled franchise their first Champions League title. After becoming the hegemony of the EPL, this is the final trophy for Pep and this core group of players to claim — and they really want it. They were favorites to win the title match two years ago before getting upset by Chelsea. They then blew a big first-leg lead against Real Madrid in the semifinals last year. The rosters on those Chelsea and Real Madrid teams were much better — and battle-tested against better domestic and UCL competition. The Cityzens will not take this challenge lightly. After rallying to upend Arsenal in the EPL after fronting them a big lead, I think they are a team of destiny who will seize the moment with a big win. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (67-33) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-94 victory on the road against the Heat as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (58-47) has lost five of their last seven games to fall behind in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Michael Malone had his team’s attention after their upset loss at home in Game Two — and he got a much better effort on defense in Game Three. Denver limited the Heat to only 25 uncontested shots from beyond the arc after giving 30 uncontested 3-pointers in both Game One and Game Two. The Nuggets’ defense has been underrated for much of the season — especially when they are dialed in which they should continue to be tonight. They are holding Miami to just 41% shooting in this series — and the Heat’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 111.1 in this series is far below the 118.3 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency they posted against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while Denver has made at least 50.2% of their shots in each game in this series, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. This is one of the rare games in the NBA Finals where the teams only get one day between games — and the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Miami has played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest. The Heat need to slow the pace of play down — their Game Two victory was the only game in this series that had less than 90 possessions. Look for Hayward Highsmith to play more tonight to help with size and the physicality that Erik Spoelstra indicated his team lacked on Wednesday after they got outrebounded by a 58 to 33 margin. Denver pulled down 36.1% of their missed shots — so Miami needs to grab more defensive rebounds. But Highsmith is a liability on offense as he is just a career 33% shooter from behind the arc. The Heat have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a playoff loss in the last two postseasons. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points. Furthermore, Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. The Heat have also played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. The Heat have also played 5 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 20 or more rebounds in their last contest. 25* NBA Friday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (519) and the Miami Heat (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (65-26-10) has won eight of their last ten games after their 7-2 victory at home against the Panthers on Monday. Florida (54-38-8) has lost two games in a row to fall behind 2-0 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 31 shots after registering 35 shots in Game One but they have only scored four goals. They have yet to score on the Power Play despite the Golden Knights entering this series with a Power Play Kill percentage of just 63%. Florida reached the Stanley Cup Finals with a physical style of play that neutralized Boston before wearing down Toronto and Carolina. This approach has not worked against Vegas. Matthew Tkachuk is spending too much time trying to be a tough guy rather than being a scorer. He scored nine goals in the first three rounds and added 12 assists in those sixteen games while only getting called for 24 penalty minutes. But in this series, Tkachuk has 36 penalty minutes already with three ten-minute misconduct penalties. He has scored only one goal in this series. Panthers head coach Paul Maurice will make plenty of changes after his team has been outscored by eight goals in this series. Top amongst these changes will be to get away from the extra-curricular stuff. The Golden Knights have scored four power-play goals in this series — and they are scoring on 36.4% of their power-play chances in the first two games. This has to change. Florida has an expected Goals-For percentage of 52.11 playing at even strength five-on-five in this series. The Panthers will stay play physical — but the attempts to goad and intimidate Vegas will be reined in since it has backfired. Returning home will also allow Maurice to get Tkachuk playing against either the Jack Eichel/Jonathan Marchessault line or the Mark Stone line — and that should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy likes to use the William Karlsson line to defend the opposing team’s top line — Vegas was able to slow down Edmonton’s superstar forwards Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with Karlsson. But it is now Maurice rather than Cassidy who has the advantage of the last line change with this series moving to Florida. The Panthers have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 12-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 5 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring another four times against him before he got pulled at the 7:10 minute mark of the season period. As mentioned above, Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. The Vegas players are finding room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Marchessault has an incredible 26.1% scoring percentage on his shots over his last 12 games. The 11-day layover after the Eastern Conference Finals may have cooled him off — or it is the Golden Knights' skill in screening him that has changed things. He has a 5.52 Goals-Against-Average with a .826 save percentage in this series. The +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expectation mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Vegas goalie Adin Hill has faced at least 30 shots in eight of his last ten games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 18 goals in their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (47) and the Florida Panthers (48). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (66-33) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 111-108 upset loss at home against the Heat as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (58-46) has won two of their last three games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets lost Game Two despite making 52.0% of their shots from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But it is the play on defense that garnered most of head coach Michael Malone who described his team’s effort on Sunday as the “least disciplined” game that they played in the postseason. Miami’s 48.7% shooting percentage was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage that Denver allowed in their last five games. The Nuggets made 50.4% of their shots in Game One on Thursday — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two straight games. Despite these good shooting numbers, the Heat are frustrating Denver with the various zone defense looks. In the 37 possessions in this series when Miami has deployed a zone, the Nuggets have scored only 39 points. For comparison's sake, while Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 118.8 when playing at home in the postseason, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plummeted to just 105.4 in their two games at home against the Heat when playing against this zone defense. The Heat are also implementing a 21st-century version of the Jordan Rules against Nikola Jokic — the defensive scheme used by the Detroit Pistons to stymie the Michael Jordan Bulls’ teams. The idea is that the superstar is going to get his points no matter what — but if the star’s teammates are not contributing, then the efforts of the superstar alone will not be enough to win. Head coach Erik Spoelstra went big in Game Two by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup to defend Aaron Gordon. This move allows Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray in an attempt to “cut the head off the snake” in the words of Steve Kerr when analyzing Game Two. Jokic scored 41 points in Game Two — but he only assisted on four other baskets on 11 potential assists. In Game One, Jokic had 14 assists on 17 potential assists. Now the Nuggets go on the road where their scoring drops by 2.7 Points-Per-Game versus their season average. While Denver knows that they need their supporting cast to shoot more and get into a better rhythm, they are more comfortable scoring when playing at home. Miami has also been successful in slowing the pace that Denver prefers to play at. This series is averaging 89.75 adjusted possessions per game with the Nuggets not getting out in transition as much — a big drop from the 96.33 adjusted possessions per game that they were averaging in their first three playoff series this postseason. Miami has played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning their previous game by three points or less. They return home to play for the first time since May 27th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after being on the road for seven or more days. The Heat have also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to three points. Miami has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.7 when playing at home in these playoffs — as compared to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 115.6 on the road this postseason. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games in the NBA Finals Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in a tied series. Denver has played 13 of their last 19 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (517) and the Miami Heat (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46) in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (54-38-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 5-2 loss on the road to the Golden Knights on Saturday. Vegas (64-26-10) has won seven of their last nine games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers peppered the Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill with 35 shots — and they were unlucky with three of their shots hitting the goal post. After failing to score on their three power play opportunities and managing only three combined shots in those situations, Florida should be focused on being more aggressive tonight. The Panthers have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and the Over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss by two or more goals in their last game. Additionally, Florida has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after failing to score more than two goals. The Over is 11-4-2 in their last 17 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Panthers have played 4 straight Overs when trailing in the series. Vegas was able to solve the Sergei Bobrovsky riddle by scoring four times against him (the final goal was an empty-netter). Florida plays a physical game that frustrated their Eastern Conference rivals in the postseason. The Bruins are comfortable with that style of play — and that was a coin-flip series. But is fair to say that Toronto and Carolina emphasize speed over size — and the Panthers were able to control the middle of the ice in front of Bobrovsky. The Golden Knights present a different problem since they are built to compete against other physical teams in the Pacific Division that favor a “heavy” style of play. Vegas was able to have players find room in front of Bobrovsky to screen his vision against their sharpshooters on the outside. Despite giving up the most goals in the playoffs since Game Six against the Bruins, it would not be fair to conclude that Bobrovsky had a bad game. He posted a +0.22 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game One. The +19.7 GSAx mark he entered this series in was unsustainable — but Vegas presents a similar threat as did Boston in the opening round. Remember, the Bruins scored 27 goals in that seven-game series while tallying at least three goals in each game. Bobrovsky only started standing on his head when facing the smaller Maple Leafs in the next round. Florida beat the President’s Trophy winner by scoring 26 goals against the Bruins including 15 goals in the final three games after trailing 3-1 in that series. Hill has faced at least 30 shots in seven of his last nines games — so the Regression Gods may be calling soon after facing so much pressure. The Golden Knights have scored 11 goals in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in two straight games. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last contest. Vegas played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. At home at T-Mobile Arena, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. And in their last 6 opportunities to host the Panthers, 5 of these games finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Florida has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road by three or more goals. 25* NHL Monday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (45) and the Vegas Golden Knights (46). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-46) looks to rebound from their 104-93 loss on the road against the Nuggets as a 9-point underdog on Thursday. Denver (66-32) has won seven games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams should shoot better — especially from 3-point range. The Heat were ice cold in the first half on Thursday as they missed 13 of their last 17 shots from behind the arc while going into halftime with just 22 points. Miami was sluggish. We can blame their struggles in their adjustment to the high altitude in Denver. We can blame the team’s decision to sacrifice a good night’s sleep on Monday after they won their Game Seven in Boston against the Celtics. The conventional wisdom is that players recover faster if they stay over to get a good night’s sleep rather than get on an airplane and arrive in a new city that evening. But the decision sets up Miami better for Game Two since it provided them another ten hours in the altitude to help their acclimation. Sunday night’s game will be the team’s sixth day in Denver — so they should be fine. The Heat shot better in the second half — they made 15 of their 22 shots (68%) from 3-point range. While it may be too much to ask for Miami to make 39.0% of their 3-pointers in Game Two as they did in getting through the Eastern Conference side of the playoff bracket, they should be more effective than their 19 of 39 shooting (33%) from behind the arc on Thursday. And the Heat will be fully committed to being more aggressive in attacking the rim rather than settling for midrange jump shots — they only attempted two free throws as a team in Game One. Miami has played 6 straight second games in a playoff series Over the Total. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with two days' rest. The Heat have now played five straight Unders while not giving up more than 104 points in three straight games — but this situation sets up to be a higher-scoring contest. Miami have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Heat have played 41 of their last 64 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. Miami has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Denver left plenty of points on the table themselves in Game One despite making 50.6% of their shots. They only scored 45 points in the second half while cruising to the victory. They only made 8 of their 27 shots (30%) from behind the arc. The Nuggets make 39.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home in their Ball Arena. Denver has a significant size edge against the Heat — and it seems like they can take advantage of this whenever they please to do so. They opened Game One by scoring 18 of their first 24 points inside the paint. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter dominating over the smaller Gabe Vincent guarding him. Nikola Jokic only took one shot in the first quarter — but he assisted on six buckets. Denver went into the fourth quarter with a 21-point lead with Jokic scoring or assisting on 69 of their 84 points. In the end, Jokic scored 27 points on just 12 shots from the field. The Nuggets did not really need to lean on the Joker in Game One — but it does not look like Miami has an answer for him when Denver needs a basket. Denver is still rested after getting a ten-day break after completing their four-game sweep with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. Furthermore, Denver has played 33 of their last 52 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 13 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost all three of their games with the Nuggets this season — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing with double revenge and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (515) and the Denver Nuggets (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401) in the FA Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W5-D0-L0) reached the English FA Cup Finals with a 3-0 victory against Sheffield United on April 22nd. Manchester United (W5-D0-L0) joined them in the championship match the next day with a 0-0 match with Brighton and Hove Albion that the Red Devils on penalty kicks on April 23rd. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United enters this match on a four-game winning streak after a 2-1 win at home against Fulham that completed their English Premier League campaign on Sunday. The Red Devils qualified for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in third place in the EPL table with 75 points — but they still were far off from Man City who won the league title with 89 points. Man United was the second-best side (to the Cityzens) when playing at home. They won 15 of their 19 matches at home at Old Trafford with just one defeat in EPL action. They scored   36 goals at home in those 19 league matches while conceding just 10 times. They generated an impressive +24.88 net expected goal differential (xGD) when playing at home in those 19 EPL matches. But it was a different story for the Red Devils when they played on the road. Man United was just W8-D3-L8 on the road in the EPL this season — and they were outscored by 10 goals in those 19 contests. They only scored 22 goals in those 19 road matches — and they conceded 33 times. They have a -3.27 net xGD in those 19 road matches — and they ranked only six in the EPL in expected Points when playing on the road. While the Red Devils’ played elite-level defense at home in Old Trafford, they were middle of the pack on the road. Manager Erik Ten Hag’s side ranked only seventh in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected Goals Allowed this season. Even more troubling, Man United was beaten by seven of the other top-eight teams in the EPL table when playing on the road with a 2-2 draw at Tottenham being their best result. In these eight road matches, the Red Devils scored only eight goals while conceding 28 goals. Five of their losses to the top-nine sides were by multiple goals. Ten Hag’s team enters this match not at full strength with Anthony and Anthony Martial dealing with injuries. This leaves Man United lacking depth at the striker position which means Ten Hag will likely move Marcus Rashford to the #10 position despite his being more effective at wing. And here comes Man City rested and determined to pull off the rare treble. With the EPL title in hand, the Sky Blues look to take the FA Cup before playing for the UEFA Champions League title next Saturday against Inter Milan. Man City’s 25-match unbeaten streak was snapped last Sunday in a 1-0 loss at Brentford last Sunday to conclude their EPL campaign — but manager Pep Guardiola deplored a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury of already clinching the EPL title the week earlier. In FA Cup play, the Cityzens scored 17 times and did not concede a goal. Stefan Ortega will continue to serve as the team’s keeper in Cup action as he looks to continue his five-straight clean sheets streak. Frankly, he has been more reliable this year than Emerson who will get the start next week in the Champions League Finals. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.

FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their minds as well after losing to Man United at Old Trafford in the last match between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 14th. But the Cityzens have still won three of the last four matches between these two teams while outscoring them by a 12-4 goal margin. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Miami Marlins (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (28-26) has won three games in a row after their weekend sweep in Los Angeles against the Angels on Sunday. San Diego (24-29) has lost two games in a row after their 10-8 loss in New York against the Yankees on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Miami returns home after their ten-game road trip — and they have won 4 straight games at home. They have also won 4 straight games at home against teams with a losing record. And in their last 15 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher, the Marlins have won 10 of these games. Alcantara gets the ball looking to improve on his 2-5 record along with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in ten starts. These are disappointing numbers for the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who posted a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 32 starts last season. Some regression was expected given the new rules outlawing the shift. Alcantara is a ground ball pitcher — and the Marlins ranked fifth in MLB last season in their use of the defensive shifts. Opposing hitters had a .207 batting average against Alcantara last year when Miami had the shift on. This season, opposing hitters have a Batting Average of Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him of .287 — far above his career BABIP of .269. Even without the benefit of the shift anymore, Alcantara should see his BABIP drop, albeit perhaps not down to last year’s .269 (cutting the difference in half still helps). But the bigger issue is that Alcantara is leaving only 61.5% of runners on base — a big drop from his 73.5% career strand rate. This is a phenomenon that should improve for the 27-year-old. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.28 and 4.18 from his current peripheral numbers. He comes off a nice start at dangerous Coors Field where he allowed only two runs in six innings against Colorado last Wednesday. Alcantara is also a much better pitcher at home at Loan Depot Park where he has a 4.05 ERA along with an outstanding 1.05 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in five starts — as opposed to his 5.76 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in five starts on the road. Last year, Alcantara had a 1.64 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a .191 opponent's batting average in 16 home starts as compared to a 3.01 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in 16 starts on the road. He should pitch well against this Padres team that is scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .213 Batting Average, a .306 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .678. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have an imbalanced lineup with little offensive production coming from the first base and catcher positions. They have failed to score more than three runs in 24 games this season — and they have lost 21 of those contests. San Diego has lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 21 of their last 31 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. The Padres have now lost 12 of their last 17 contests — and manager Bob Melvin tasks Weathers to end the losing streak. The lefty comes off a six-inning outing at Washington where he allowed five runs (four earned) last Wednesday. He has a 1-3 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in seven appearances including five starts. While his ERA at the spacious Petco Park is 3.27 in 11 innings, that mark rises to a 4.34 clip in his 18 2/3 innings on the road. His 5.40 SIERA and 5.29 xFIP call for regression by about 1 1/2 runs per game. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 10 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Marlins in Miami.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is heating up with their bats after scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .313 Batting Average, a .380 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .862 during that span. The Marlins rank 10th and 9th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitchers (with dudes like Jorge Soler absolutely raking against lefties). Miami has won 6 of their last 7 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Miami Marlins (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-45) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 104-103 loss at home to the Heat as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.  Boston (68-33) hosts this Game Seven after rallying from their 3-0 series deficit.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The oddsmakers have lowered the Total for this final contest by six points to account for the historical Game Seven slide in points scored. Even after that, the evidence is strong that this game will finish Under the Total. There were a combined 63 free throw attempts taken in Game Six — but that number should be lower tonight with the referees not wanting to decide the game by unnecessarily placing a key player into foul trouble. Miami only made 35.5% of their shots on Saturday — but that number was still propped up by them naming 14 of their 30 shots (47%) from behind the arc. While they should make more than 36% of their shots tonight, they may not reach their effective field goal percentage of 50.5% from Game Six given the likely regression in 3-point shooting. Jimmy Butler seems slowed by a bad ankle. After scoring 35 and 27 points in Games One and Two, he has only averaged 20.8 Points-Per-Game on 37% shooting in the last four games in this series. The Heat did get Gabe Vincent back on Saturday after he missed Game Five with his twisted ankle, but he missed 9 of 12 shots from inside the arc while showing little lift with his feet. Bam Adebayo has not scored more than 17 points since Game Two while averaging just 12.5 PPG after scoring 21 PPG in the first two games of this series. Kyle Lowry has gone MIA with just 27 combined points since halftime of Game Two. Miami has played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in potential closeout playoff games. Boston only made 7 of their 35 shots (20%) of their 3-pointers on Saturday — but they did nail 27 of their 43 shots (62.8%) from inside the arc. So, like Miami, while the Celtics should make more 3s tonight, they may very well underperform their effective field goal percentage of 52.6% in that game. Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the last three games facing the brink of elimination. They have held the Heat to just 43.0% shooting in the last three games which has resulted in only 99.7 PPG. The Celtics have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Boston has played 10 straight Unders in potential elimination games including all five this postseason. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 11 Game Sevens Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The tempo of this series has slowed dramatically. The first four games of this series averaged 96.5 adjusted possessions per game with Game Four seeing 94.3 adjusted possessions per game. Games Five and Six have then averaged just 88.8 adjusted possessions per game with Game Five seeing 84.4 adjusted possessions and Game Six totaling 89.4 adjusted possessions. With these teams tiring and more banged up than they were a week ago, expect another slow game with shaky shooting from both sides. 25* NBA Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-26-10) has lost the last two games in this series after their 4-2 loss at home to the Stars on Saturday. Dallas (56-26-18) now trails by a 3-2 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Adin Hill had not allowed more than three goals in six straight games before Saturday. Hill still has a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average in his ten playoff games this year with a .932 save percentage — and he has +6.75 Goals Saved Above Expectation this postseason. Coming off his three previous losses in these playoffs, Hill has a .925 save percentage in the next game. Vegas has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by two or more goals. They went into the third period with the game tied before the Stars scored two unanswered goals — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing more than one goal in the third period of their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing four or more goals in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. And in their last 44 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total, Dallas has played 26 of these games Under the Total. Dallas suddenly has a hot goaltender between the pipes with Jake Oettinger stopping 27 of the 29 shots he faced on Saturday. After getting benched after seven minutes in the first period of Game Three, Oettinger has allowed only four goals in the last two games with a .941 save percentage and a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average. The Stars have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have played 20 of their last 31 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on home ice.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (29) and the Dallas Stars (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. The SITUATION: Atlanta (31-21) has lost two games in a row and four of their last six after a 2-1 loss in the third game of their series with the Phillies. Philadelphia (25-27) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta should rebound with a strong effort to settle for a split in this series with their NL East rival. They have won 20 of their last 25 games after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have won 31 of their last 45 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 51 of their last 78 games at home — and they have won 35 of their last 52 home games against teams with a losing record. Their ace gets the pitching assignment tonight as he looks to build off his 4-2 record along with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in ten starts. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing even better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.52 and 2.62 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .176 in five starts as opposed to his 1.15 WHIP and .196 opponent’s batting average in five starts on the road. He should thrive against a Phillies team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .241 Batting Average, a .318 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .384 during that span. Philadelphia has still lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road gassed against teams with a winning record. The Phillies counter with Covey who is getting a tryout in the starting rotation after allowing only one run in five innings of work in relief at home against Arizona last Tuesday. The 31-year-old right-hander has a 0-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his two games spanning nine innings this season. Philly claimed him off waivers after he was sent down by the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago after a fill-in relief appearance. He has not pitched at the MLB level since 2020 when he had a 7.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings. In his 32 innings in Triple-A for the Dodgers before getting picked up by the Phillies, he had an underwhelming 4.22 ERA with 28 strikeouts by 18 bases-on-balls. He will be supported by a Philadelphia bullpen that has a 5.86 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the road this season.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won 42 of their last 51 games when priced at -200 or higher — and they have won 8 of their last 9 home games when priced at -200 or higher with Strider their starting pitcher. While I do not endorse money-line favorites priced above my -150 threshold for featured 25*/20*/10* plays, let’s instead invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the price to back the Braves tonight in a great situation for them. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Philadelphia Phillies (907) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Dylan Covey. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.

FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (67-33) extended this series at least for another game with their 110-97 victory as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami (56-44) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite both teams shooting over 50% from the field, Game Five finished Under the Total. The tempo of this series is slowing. In victory, the Celtics only took 79 shots which were tied for their series low in Game Two — and they scored only 105 points in that game after making 47% of their shots. Boston made 16 of their 39 shots from behind the arc for a 41% shooting percentage. After shooting under 35% from 3-point range in Games One through Three, the Celtics have nailed more than 40% of their 3-pointers in the last two games. Look for the clip to drop tonight given the pressure of a Game Six — and Boston makes 37.6% of their 3-pointers on the road this season. The Celtics have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after winning two games in a row. Additionally, Boston has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games on the road Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Celtics have played 33 of their last 52 road games Under the Total when favored by up to three points. Miami is finding it difficult to score since Boston has amped up their defensive intensity in the face of potential elimination. The Heat have only attempted 78 shots in each of their last two games after averaging 86 shots per game in the first three games of this series with at least 81 shots in each of their three victories — so their tempo has slowed. The Celtics are doing a better job of moving Miami off the 3-point line as they have made only 17 of their 55 shots from behind the arc (31%) in the last two games after nailing 47 of 93 of their 3-pointers (51%) in the first three games of this series. Boston is also not fouling as much. After getting to the free throw line at least 19 times in the first four games of the series, the Heat only had 10 free throw attempts on Thursday. Miami scored only 97 points in Game Five despite making 51.3% of their shots. The Heat have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. After Miami has allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2% and 50.6% from the field in the last two games, the Heat should increase their defensive intensity in this critical Game Six.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (501) and the Miami Heat (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Dallas Stars (21) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-10) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with a 3-2 loss in overtime on the road against the Stars. Dallas (55-26-18) still trails by a 3-1 margin in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas has bounced back to win 12 of their last 16 games after losing on the road — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road by one goal. The Golden Knights have also won 11 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than one goal in their last contest. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and Vegas has won 15 of their last 21 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Despite the loss, the team continues to get great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped 39 of 42 shots on Thursday. Hill had +1.81 Goals Saved Above Expectation in Game Four -- giving him an impressive +7.81 GSAx mark in the postseason. He has won six of his eight postseason starts with a 2.07 Goals-Against-Average and a .938 save percentage. Vegas is better than their regular season statistics suggest due to a slew of injuries — but they are close to full strength now. Having Mark Stone back on the ice to anchor one of the forward lines while joining Jack Eichel on the power play makes the Golden Knights one of the most explosive scoring attacks in the league. They have won 37 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Vegas has also won 23 of their last 32 games at home including six of their last seven in these playoffs. Home ice advantage is of particular importance tonight for head coach Bruce Cassidy given the suspension of the Stars captain Jamie Benn. Dallas only has two formidable scoring lines with Benn serving the second game of his two-game suspension and right wing Evgenii Dadonov out with an injury — they both anchored the third line. The home team gets the final shift change which will help ensure Cassidy gets his preferred blue-line pairings against the Stars' top-two lines while getting his choice as to when he wants his William Karlsson forward line on the ice to deploy his elite defensive skills. Dallas has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 16 of their last 26 games after a victory at home. The Stars have also lost 4 straight games after allowing two goals or less in their last contest — and they have lost 13 of their last 17 games after playing three straight Unders. They got their best game in this series from goalie Jake Oettinger who stopped 37 of the 39 shots he has faced. But Oettinger has been inconsistent this postseason with a 2.94 GAA and a .899 save percentage in 17 starts — and he has been pulled three times due to poor play.

FINAL TAKE: The Stars won the overtime battle on Thursday — but when Benn lost control and drove his stick into Stone’s throat to “brace his fall to the ice” early in Game Four, Dallas probably lost the war. Playing on the road down the street from the Hollywood Sports office was already going to be tough enough — but to do it without their captain (and Dadonov) is too much to overcome against a Golden Knights team that has won 28 of their last 39 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NHL Western Conference Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Dallas Stars (21). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Williamson and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (22-29) has won two of their last three games after their 9-0 victory in the opening game of this three-game series. Chicago (22-28) has lost two straight games and four of their last six contests with that loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run. Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. Williamson gets the ball to make his third career professional start after carrying an 0-0 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. After a promising first start on the road against Colorado, the left-hander gave up for earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against St. Louis on Sunday. He issued four walks in that effort which continued his problems of command that manifested in his minor league stints. In Triple-A last season, he had a 1.63 WHIP while averaging 5.3 walks per nine innings. In his 34 innings in Triple-A this season, he continued that 5.3 bases-on-balls per nine-inning rate while posting a 1.88 WHIP. He faces a Cubs team that scores 6.3 Runs-Per-Game this season against left-handed pitchers with a .303 Batting Average, a .367 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .859. With the recently called-up Christopher Morel on fire and Seiya Suzuki finally heating up, Chicago has two red-hot hitters on the right side of the plate — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Cubs’ last 10 games after a loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by four or more runs. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing five or more runs in their last game. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games at home at Wrigley Field — and the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the Total in the 8-8.5 range. They counter with Taillon who has an 0-3 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.73 in seven starts. The right-hander is amidst a terrible slump having allowed 19 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings in his last four starts. He has only struck out 11 batters during that span while issuing six walks. And while Taillon has a 7.80 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .290 in four road starts, those numbers are even worse at home where has been saddled with an 8.49 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .340 in three starts. Taillon’s teams have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when he is pitching in May.

FINAL TAKE: The Reds are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .286 Batting Average, a .350 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .771. These two teams have played 4 straight Overs against each other. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (955) and the Chicago Cubs (956). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:38 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Miami Marlins (925) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (28-23) has won four games in a row — and six of their last seven contests — after their 7-3 win against Boston on Wednesday. Miami (25-26) has lost four of their last five games after their 7-6 loss in Colorado to the Rockies on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANGELS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should continue to build off their momentum as they have won 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last contest — and they have won 7 straight opening games to a new series. Manager Phil Levin turns to Detmers tonight who follows up an outing where he struck out 12 batters in 5 2/3 innings at home against Minnesota last Friday. The left-hander only gave up two hits but the Twins still scored three runs. That has been the story of the 23-year-old’s season — he has an 0-3 record with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in eight starts but his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.68 and 3.80 from his deeper numbers. Detmers has been pretty unfortunate when it comes to battle balls given the Batting Average for Balls put Into Play (BABIP) against him at .351 — well above the MLB average in the .290 range. He has also stranded only 60.9% of the runners he has left on base which is about 11% below league averages. The Regression Gods will soon arrive to offer help with more batted balls being hit at his defense — and that will lead to fewer baserunners and runners that score. Last season, Detmers had a 7-6 record with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP — and his SIERA and xFIP stood at 4.12 and 4.20 so there is an argument that he is pitching better this season, especially with his increased velocity that has carried over from spring training. In his 13 starts at home last year, Detmers had a 3.22 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .193 opponent’s batting average. He should pitch well against this Marlins team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 39 of their last 52 road games against left-handed starters. Miami is second-to-last in drawing walks which have played a large role in their scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game which is last in MLB. Their loss to the Rockies yesterday was just the fourth time in 19 games they were on the losing end of a game decided by one run. Their near .500 record coming from these narrow victories masks a bottom-five run differential in the league. The Marlins have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games in interleague play. Manager Skip Schumaker taps Luzardo to take the mound after he gave up six runs in five innings of work in his last start at San Francisco on Sunday. The left-hander has a 3-3 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.37 — and the sabermetrics suggest he has been overperforming given his SIERA and xFIP of 3.89 and 4.13. And while the 25-year-old has a 2.57 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in six starts at home, those numbers rise to a 5.91 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .319 in four starts on the road. Miami has lost 14 of their last 19 road games with Luzardo on the hill — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 road games with Luzardo pitching as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Angels rake against left-handed pitching especially when playing at home at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. They rank fifth in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created when at home against lefties this season. Los Angeles has also won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Interleague Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (926) versus the Miami Marlins (925) listing both starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (56-43) looks to bounce back from their 116-99 upset loss at home to the Celtics as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (66-33) snapped their three-game losing streak to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics played with professional pride on Tuesday after their embarrassing 26-point loss in Miami on Sunday. They made 51.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the best shooting effort in their last three games — and they nailed 18 of their 45 shots (40%) from behind the arc which was their best 3-point shooting mark in this series. But can Boston continue this effective shooting back at home? They were only making 28.3% of their 3-pointers in this series before Game Four. Frankly, this team simply seems too dependent on the 3-point shot — and teams that live and die by the 3 are usually inconsistent. And the fundamental problems with this team regarding their relationship with head coach Joe Mazzulla — the last-minute replacement for Ime Udoka who was suspended for his off-the-court shenanigans. Boston still looks broken despite the momentary display of life. The Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. Boston has also been unreliable when playing at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after getting upset in the first two games of this series. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 210s including six of those eight circumstances this season. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 Game Fives in a series. Miami only made 8 of their 25 shots (25%) from behind the arc while settling for a 43.6% shooting percentage which was the worst offensive effort in this series. But the Heat have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Expect a more aggressive effort from Bam Adebayo who has only scored 11.5 Points-Per-Game on six shots per game after averaging 15 shots per game in the first two games in this series. On the road, the Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The books still have Boston as an 8-point home favorite which is the range they were in for Games One and Two. Frankly and in hindsight, that number seems flawed based on an overreliance on the Heat’s regular season numbers before they (somehow) flipped the switch and started making their 3s. Gabe Vincent’s rolled ankle late in Game Four worries me — he did come back and play on Tuesday but is listed as questionable for Game Five (UPDATE: Vincent is out tonight — but this is still a play. It’s a Jimmy Butler night). Ultimately, I think this Heat team has too much heart and team unity to get blown out again. Perhaps Boston extends this series to a sixth game, but this should be a close game if they do — and Miami has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (549) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (62-25-9) has won five games in a row after their 4-0 shutout victory on the road against the Stars on Tuesday. Dallas (54-26-18) has lost three games in a row to fall behind 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Pete DeBoer pulled goalie Jake Oettinger after he gave up a third goal on just five shots early in the first period on Tuesday. Oettinger usually plays well after a loss. He had a 22-1-3 record in the regular season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage — and he has a .913 save percentage coming off a loss in these playoffs. The Stars have played 26 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Dallas’ attack will be undermanned tonight with Jamie Benn suspended for the next two games and Evgeni Dadonov doubtful with a lower-body injury. That decimates two-thirds of the Stars’ third forward line. Dadonov has four goals and six assists in 16 playoff games this season. But it is the loss of their captain Benn who is not taking accountability for his terrible play on Tuesday as he claimed that he regretted using his stick to brace his fall that simply inadvertently chocked Mark Stone’s neck on the ice. Benn scored 33 goals and added 45 assists in the regular season. He has three goals and eight assists in this postseason — and he plays on the Dallas power play. The last two games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Stars have played 37 of their last 60 home games Under the Total after playing two Unders in a row. The Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 games at home. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-2 in Dallas’ last 11 games in the Western Conference Finals — and the Under is 18-6-2 in their last 26 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Vegas has won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning 15 or more of their last 21 games. The Golden Knights have scored three or more goals in five straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring three or more goals in five straight games. They are getting great goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped all 34 of the shots he faced on Tuesday. He is playing with tremendous confidence after frustrating the Edmonton Oilers last round with their dynamic scorers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Hill has a 1.96 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage in seven games in these playoffs. He has generated +6.0 Goals Saved Above Expectation in the postseason. He has been helped by an aggressive Vegas defense that has blocked 266 shots in the playoffs, the second-most in the postseason. The Golden Knights have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the Western Conference Finals — and they have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing in Dallas. The Stars have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by three or more goals. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (17) and the Dallas Stars (18). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). THE SITUATION: Man United (W21-D6-L9) has won two matches in a row after their 1-0 win against Bournemouth on Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D10-L15) comes off a 1-0 loss to Man City on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED DEVILS MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United needs one more point in their final two matches to secure a top-four finish in the English Premier League table which qualifies them for the UEFA Champions League next year. But manager Erik ten Hag would prefer to get this accomplishment out of the way as soon as possible so he can rest players in the final EPL match of the season to prepare for the FA Cup final coming up against Man City. The squad looks to get back their leading scorer Marcus Rashford for this match as well with him in training this week after missing time with a leg injury. Rashford might have played in the match against Bournemouth but he then got ill which delayed his return to the pitch. Man United has been tough to beat at home at Old Trafford this season where they have won 13 of their 17 EPL matches while losing only one time. They have a +17.2 expected net goal differential at home as compared to their -4.3 expected net goal differential on the road in league play. The Red Devils have not allowed a goal at home in EPL play since early February with five victories amongst those six clean sheets. Chelsea has nothing to play for with their current standing in 12 place — they are safe from relegation but can not qualify for any European tournaments next year. Disarray with the ownership contributed to some questionable transfer signings of overrated past-their-prime talent. Unsurprisingly, the predictable injury bug followed. Mason Mount, Ben Chilwell, N’Golo Kante, Reese James, and Mateo Kovacic headline their long injured list — and now Benoit Badiashile joins that group with the defender suffering a groin injury that could keep him sidelined for months. The team is on their third manager this season with Frank Lampard agreeing to serve as a short-term caretaker after Graham Potter was sacked on April 6th. While Lampard was a legendary player for the Blues, he was a miserable failure for the franchise as their manager several seasons ago — and he then was ineffective as the manager for Everton before getting fired earlier in the year. Predictably, the players have not responded to Lampard’s temporary reinstatement with the team. Since he has taken over, Chelsea is third worst in the league with seven losses and only three points in nine matches.  Their lone results were a win against 15th-place Bournemouth and a draw at home to 16th-place Nottingham Forest. The defense has been atrocious under Lampard with the team allowing 1.43 expected goals per match and 2.9 Big Chances per match under his second tenure. The Blues have not produced a clean sheet since he took over. Chelsea is the poster child for a team with their minds focused on the proverbial beach before former Tottenham and Paris Saint-Germain manager Mauricio Pochettino takes over to begin fixing the many problems with this squad.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge back when Thomas Tuchel was still managing this Blues team that had higher aspirations. Chelsea ranks fourth to the bottom of the league in points generated on the road. Beating the Blues always gives Man United motivation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Florida (53-37-7) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 1-0 victory at home against the Hurricanes on Monday. Carolina (59-25-12) has lost three in a row to fall behind in this series by a 3-0 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Panthers’ goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is as hot as a goaltender can be right now. He enters this game with 67 straight saves after his shutout in Game Three. He has stopped 69 of 70 shots in the last two games — and he has stopped 132 of the 135 shots he has faced in this series. In his last four games, Bobrovsky has a 0.89 Goals-Against-Average and a .973 save percentage. While these numbers are not sustainable, the visit from the Regression Gods is not likely to see a radical change. While Bobrovsky struggled in the regular season, we are talking about a two-time Vezina Trophy winner. The veteran has extended stretches in his career when he was playing at a very high level. He has a .935 save percentage in the playoffs with +19.5 Goals Saved Above Expectation. And Bobrovksy has been helped by head coach Paul Maurice’s style of play with the emphasis on forechecking generating better defensive play in the final month of the regular season that has carried over into the playoffs. Florida has played 7 straight Unders after winning their previous game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing four or more Unders in a row. And in their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series, Florida has played 6 straight Unders. In the Game Fours in the previous series against Boston and Toronto, the Panthers only gave up three combined goals. While Bobrovsky’s save streak will likely be snapped tonight, our Under play will be helped by the strong play of the Hurricanes’ goalie Frederick Andersen. It’s not like Florida has evoked memories of the 1980s Wayne Gretzky Edmonton Oilers teams. They have only scored six goals in the first three games in this series — and that includes four overtime periods. In his seven playoff games this postseason, Andersen has a 1.58 GAA and a .937 save percentage. Carolina is an excellent defensive team that led the NHL in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) since the Christmas break. They are limiting the Panthers to just 19.66 shots per game per 60 minutes and 2.17 xGA per 60 minutes in this series. The Hurricanes have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road after losing their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal. They have played 5 straight Unders after losing three games in a row. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the Eastern Conference Finals.

FINAL TAKE: Perhaps this is the game where both teams score two goals before someone takes a 3-2 lead which is followed up by either an empty-netter or a goal that forces overtime. But with both teams playing so tightly disciplined in a physical series with elite goaltending, I do not expect the tone of Game Four to dramatically change (especially for Florida). I do think there will be more power play chances tonight — but the Hurricanes have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. If this was a regular season game, I might be more tempted by the contrarian Over play — but since this is the fourth straight playoff game between these two teams, the style and tempos should remain the same. Frankly, we are getting a gift with the Total not dropping to 5. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (15) and the Florida Panthers (16). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-33) has lost five of their last seven games after their 128-102 upset loss on the road against the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (56-42) has won 10 of their last 12 games while taking a 3-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics embarrassed themselves (and everyone backing them as a road favorite in that contest) with that 26-point loss in a must-win game for them on Sunday. They allowed the Heat to nail 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 60 games. It looks like the team quit on rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla — but they should play much harder tonight after Game Three’s humiliation. Boston has played 7 straight Unders when facing elimination in a playoff series. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog of six points or less. They have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Miami was on fire by nailing 19 of their 35 shots (54%) from behind the arc as they continued a miraculous turnaround with their long-range shooting after only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. The Heat made 56.8% of their shots on Sunday which was the best showing effort in their last 13 games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win at home by 20 or more points. The Heat dominated Game Three despite getting outrebounded by a 57 to 35 margin. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrebounded by 20 or more boards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Heat have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when holding a 3-0 series lead — and they have played 4 of their last 6 playoff games with the possibility of closing out the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Miami. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (545) and the Miami Heat (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (14) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (13) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-25-18) has lost three of their last four games after their 3-2 loss in overtime on the road on Sunday. Vegas (61-25-9) has won four games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this series with both victories coming in overtime.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas outplayed the Golden Knights on Sunday. They held them to just 24 shots — and they won the expected goals battle by a 3.24 to 2.88 margin. The Stars have a 52.39% expected goals share mark in this series. They should play well tonight in this crucial third game. Dallas has won 13 of their last 20 games after a loss on the road — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. They have won 7 of their last 9 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Additionally, while the Stars have given up seven goals in the two games in this series, they have then won 15 of their last 21 games after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. Goalie Jake Oettinger has been inconsistent in this series — but he has been quite good in his career when coming off a loss. Forgive me for not recalculating his up-to-date data after he stopped 21 of 24 shots on Sunday — but he had a 22-1-3 record this season coming off a loss with a .933 save percentage along with a 5-0 record with a .929 save percentage in the playoffs before the loss in Game Three. Returning home will help where Dallas has won 5 of their last 6 games. They have also won 6 of their last 7 playoff games when trailing in the series. They should tighten things up on defense considering that they lead all teams in the playoffs with an expected Goals Allowed (xGA) mark of 2.25. Vegas has lost 4 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row at home by one goal. They have scored three or more goals in four straight games — but they have then lost 8 of their last 12 games after scoring three or more goals in four straight games. And while the Golden Knights have only lost three times in their last 15 games, they have then lost 7 of their last 11 games after winning 12 or more of their last 15 contests. Vegas is getting it done despite shaky special teams play. They are only seventh in the postseason with a Power Play that is scoring on just 18.6% of their chances. Their Power Play Kill Unit ranks 14th of the 16 playoff teams with a success rate of 68.6%. The team is getting near miraculous goaltending from Adin Hill who is pretty much a fourth-stringer. But while he had a 2.30 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in his 15 games at home in the regular season (14 starts), those numbers decline to a 2.67 GAA and a .909 save percentage in 12 games (11 starts) on the road in the regular season. I worry that the bubble is about to burst for Hill — and the Golden Knights have lost 4 of their last 5 games in Dallas against the Stars.

FINAL TAKE: The Stars have won 5 of their last 7 games when playing with double-revenge of two losses by one goal. 25* NHL Tuesday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (14) versus the Vegas Golden Knights (13). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (35-14) has won three of their last four games after their 6-4 victory in the opening game of their series with the Blue Jays last night. Toronto (25-23) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay continues to be the class of the league as they continue to play great baseball after their fantastic start to the season. The Rays have won 39 of their last 57 games after winning their previous game. They have won 40 of their last 52 games at home including 22 of their 26 games at Tropicana Field this season. They have also won 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Manager Kevin Cash turns to Bradley to make his fifth start of the season. The rookie has a 3-0 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He was sent back down to the minors after his first three starts with some injured pitchers returning to the rotation — and that was an opportunity to get accustomed to pitching on five days rest to prepare for an eventual return to the majors. The 22-year-old right-hander struggled in those starts but it looks like he was experimenting with some different pitches. He maintained his great form in his return to the majors last Thursday as he allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings on the road against the Mets. The underlying metrics look great with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.84 and 3.17 moving forward. He faces a Blue Jays team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are lost 7 of their last 9 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Toronto is getting pummeled by their AL East rivals. After losing three of four at home to the New York Yankees, they then got swept at home in a three-game series against Baltimore. Now here comes the best team in baseball in the Rays — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games after getting upset in their previous game to a divisional rival. Toronto has also lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing five or more runs. Additionally, they have lost 13 of their last 16 games against division opponents — and they have lost 5 straight to teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays were favored last night with Chris Bassitt facing a cadre of Tampa Bay relievers. Berrios gets the start tonight after allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last start against the New York Yankees on Thursday. The right-hander has a 3-4 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in nine starts. Berrios has been up and down this season with admittedly some great outings. But he has allowed four or more runs in three of his starts — and they were all on the road. While the 28-year-old has a 2.22 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a .220 opponent’s batting average in four home starts, those numbers rise to a 6.67 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a .296 batting average in his five starts on the road. These disparate home-road splits are consistent with last season when he had a 4.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .273 in 16 starts at home but a 6.36 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in 16 starts on the road. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have lost 38 of their last 56 games in Tampa Bay against the Rays.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game this season — and they have won 28 of their last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League East Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (966) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (965) listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-32) has won five games in a row after their 119-108 upset loss as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (52-46) has lost four of their last five games to dig themselves into an 0-3 hole in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers' obvious move tonight is for head coach Darvin Ham to reduce D’Angelo Russell’s playing time since he is scoring only 7 Points-Per-Game in this series while being a sieve on the defensive end of the court. This adjustment will help Los Angeles’ defensive efforts. As it is, the Lakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total at home when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. Despite the Nuggets making 50% of their shots on Saturday, the Lakers still have the lowest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 101.6 in the playoffs when playing at home — and fewer minutes for Russell will only help those numbers. Denver has played 36 of their last 62 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Nuggets have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. And in their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest, Denver has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Fatigue is becoming an issue for the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing tons of minutes and the bench shortening due to ineffective players like Russell. While I do not expect the effort for Los Angeles to drop off, they may try to slow the pace down simply to conserve energy for the fourth quarter after giving up a 13-0 run late in the game on Saturday. In the Lakers’ last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, the Under is 12-5-1. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (543) and the Los Angeles Lakers (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:32 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542) in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-32) has lost four of their last six games after a 111-105 upset loss at home as a 10-point favorite on Friday. Miami (55-42) has won nine of their last 11 games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Like a drunken sailor who hates himself, Boston seems determined to keep digging deeper and deeper holes for themselves to then dig out of — but I suspect they know that an 0-3 hole will be all but insurmountable. They had a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter in Game Two — but squandered that by allowing the Heat to outscore them by a 36-22 margin to give that game away. Miami has a big edge with head coach Erik Spoelstra — and they are the mentally tougher team. But the Celtics do have more ballers who can win any game in this series if they are all playing at their typical levels of competency. On Friday, it was Marcus Smart who disappointed the Boston faithful with just 7 points on 2-of-5 shooting with just four rebounds and three assists. Before that game, Smart had averaged 18.2 Points-Per-Game on 15.2 field goal attempts per game, 5.7 Rebounds-Per-Game, and 7.5 Assists-Per-Game when Boston was trailing in a postseason game over the last two years. Smart should play better tonight — and so too should Jaylen Brown who scored only 16 points after missing 16 of his 23 shots. Jayson Tatum had his A-Game with 34 points — but he needs more help. The Celtics have staved off elimination on the road in the playoffs last season and also this year — so they are up to the challenge. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after getting upset in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when both those upsets were at home. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss at home. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Boston has some clunkers at home in these playoffs — but they have won and covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They are also a decisive 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on the road. Frankly, I was disgusted by Miami’s effort in their opening Play-In Tournament game when we were on them against Atlanta. Fortunately, we have avoided fading them for most of their seven upset wins in this postseason. Mindlessly zig-zagging in the NBA playoffs is a dangerous betting strategy — especially since Joe Public knows about it. But mindlessly fading the zig-saggers is not an approach either. Off two upset wins already in this series, it may be difficult for the Heat to maintain their highest intensity — that is simply human nature. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three games in a row. They have won all five of their games at home in the postseason — but they were 6-0 at home in the playoffs last year before losing three games in a row at home to these same Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Miami including those three playoff games last year. They have also covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with Boston Celtics (541) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10) in Game Two of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-26-16) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss in overtime on Friday. Vegas (60-25-9) has won three straight games en route to their 1-0 lead in this series.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Stars are scoring 3.62 Goals-Per-Game in the playoffs — and they have tallied 22 goals after their previous five losses this postseason for a 4.4 Goals-Per-Game average. Dallas has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored three or more goals — and they have played 40 of their last 67 games Over the Total after a game where seven or more combined goals were scored. Jake Oettinger has struggled in these playoffs with a 2.83 Goals-Against-Average and a .902 save percentage in 14 games after giving up four goals on Friday. He was pulled in Games Three and Six last round against the Kraken. Dallas stays on the road where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games. Vegas has scored 13  combined goals in their last three games from eight different players. The Golden Knights have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after going unbeaten in two straight games. They have scored at least four goals in each of their last three games — and they have played 20 of their last 33 games Over the Total after scoring three or more goals in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total. Goalie Adin Hill bailed them out against Edmonton after Laurent Brossoit suffered an injury in Game Two. But he remains risky moving forward which he demonstrated by allowing the tying goal with under two minutes to go in the third period. The Stars peppered him with 36 shots on Friday — and he will be tested once again in this crucial game for them.  

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has trailed in a playoff series four times this postseason — and 3 of those 4 games finished Over the Total. The Over is also 7-1-1 in the Stars’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (9) and the Vegas Golden Knights (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 108-103 loss as a 5.5-point underdog on the road on Thursday. Denver (63-32) has won four straight games while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 43.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They responded to that effort in Game Two of their series against Golden State by scoring 127 points in a 30-point route at home against the Warriors in Game Three of that series. The Lakers should play their best game of this series tonight with their backs against the wall. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss including five straight games in this postseason. Anthony Davis has been inconsistent with his scoring production — but he is likely due for a big effort tonight after only making 4 of his 15 shots from the field on Thursday. LeBron James missed all six of his shots from behind the arc in that game as well. But now Los Angeles returns home where they have won and covered the point spread in all six of their games this postseason. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Back on their home court in these playoffs, Los Angeles is scoring +3.8 more points per 100 possessions off turnovers — and they are allowing -1.7 fewer points per 100 points off turnovers. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Denver outrebounded Los Angeles by a 49-40 margin making it the fourth straight game where they outrebounded their opponent by at least eight boards. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by at least five boards. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning three games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after winning four games in a row. The Nuggets have yet to find a suitable answer to Lakers’ head coach Darvin Ham’s fourth-quarter adjustment in Game One where he inserted Rui Hachimura in the game to defend Nikola Jokic. Not only is Hachimura a good defender but that move freed up Davis to devote his defensive energy to protecting the rim. Jokic has gone just 9 of 23 from the floor in the last five quarters of this series since Ham made that adjustment. The Nuggets pulled out Game Two because Jamal Murray went supernova in the fourth quarter of that game by scoring 23 points on 6 of 7 shooting including 4 of 5 from behind the arc. Murray had missed 12 of his previous 17 shots in that game. But now Denver goes back on the road where they have lost three of their five games this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Los Angeles against the Lakers.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a same-season loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (540) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (8) versus the Florida Panthers (7) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Carolina (59-24-11) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 3-2 loss in four overtimes at home to the Panthers. Florida (51-37-7) has won eight of their last nine games while taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: How will these teams respond to playing 139:47 minutes on Thursday in what was the sixth-longest game in the history of the NHL? The TNT commentary team suggested that Florida may be galvanized by the win while Carolina may be deflated by the loss. The past results do not bear this out. I did a deep dive into how teams respond after playing in four overtime games in the Stanley Cup playoffs. We are dealing with a small sample size but the results do suggest that the Panthers are not in an automatically better situation simply because they pulled out Thursday’s game. The winners of playoff games that went into the fourth overtime then lost 7 of their next 12 games going back to 1933. Admittedly, not all of those 12 games are directly comparable. Three of those four overtime games decided the series — and it is telling that those surviving teams went on to lose their next game in the opening round of the next playoff series. Clearly, playing four overtimes is draining — but both teams are feeling in this instance. When the series continued after a four-overtime game, the triumphant team did win the next game in four of seven occasions — but one of those games was in 1936 when the Detroit Red Wings were playing the Montreal Maroons in the semifinals and coming off the longest game in NHL history that went into the sixth overtime period. In 2020, Columbus rebounded to a 3-2 loss in five overtimes in Game One to upset Tampa Bay in their building in Game Two. So I think there is enough evidence to indicate that the Hurricanes are not screwed for losing Thursday’s marathon. We want to fade Florida in this spot as they have now survived four overtime games on the road. This team is winning lots of coin flips. They lost the expected goals battle in Game One with Carolina generating 6.5 expected goals to the Panthers’ 4.41 expected goals. In their previous game at Toronto that ended that series, they lost the expected goals battle by a 4.67 to 3.2 margin but won the game in overtime by a 3-2 score. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been the difference as he is playing at the highest level in his career. He leads all goaltenders with +13.8 goals saved above expectation in the playoffs. But he is the one I am most concerned about recovering for this game after facing 65 shots on Thursday. As it is, Bobrovsky underdoes a rigorous in-game and post-game special hydration program. Head coach Paul Maurice has confirmed he is playing tonight — but it is a lot to ask of the veteran. In his 24 games on the road in the regular season, Bobrovsky had a 3.27 GAA and a .892 save percentage. Florida defensemen Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, and Aaron Ekblad all logged in over 50 minutes on Thursday. This is a team that has lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by one goal — and they have lost 12 of their last 14 games on the road after winning two games in a row by one goal. They have lost 21 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than two goals in two straight games. The Panthers are just 14-37-2 in their last 53 games at the Hurricanes’ PNC Arena. Carolina has not lost two straight games in this postseason. The Hurricanes have won 5 straight games after not scoring more than two goals. They still hold a big edge on their home ice where they have won 42 of their last 58 games — and they have won 14 of their last 17 contests at PNC Arena. Head coach Rob Brind’Amour has the luxury of resting Frederik Andersen tonight and turning to Antti Raanta who was the rotational starter during the regular season. Raanta had an 11-0-1 record at home during the regular season with a 2.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .916 save percentage. In his 13 games (11 starts) at home in the playoffs in his career, Raanta has an 8-1 record with a 1.78 GAA and a .933 save percentage. The Hurricanes have played two straight Unders — and they have won 23 of their last 28 home games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the “Carolina will be deflated” theory is that Florida may be lulled into letting up in their intensity since they will lack the urgency that the Hurricanes will have to avoid going back to Florida with an 0-2 series deficit. Carolina has won 15 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss by just one goal. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (8) versus the Florida Panthers (7). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-31) looks to bounce back from a 123-116 upset loss at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami (54-42) has won eight of their last ten games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla has been ridiculed for claiming afterward that his team won three of the four quarters on Wednesday. It was a disastrous third quarter in which the Heat outscored the Celtics by a 46-25 margin that made the difference. But Mazzulla’s point was that his team “let go of the rope” and let up in their intensity and focus on the defensive end of the court. Boston was not as physical as they needed to be and let Miami run wild in transition. The Heat nailed six of their nine shots from behind the arc in the third quarter while pulling down four of their nine missed shots. The Heat was a sizzling 17 of 26 from the field in that decisive start to the second half. But there are good signs for Boston from that game — if they simply tighten things up on defense and play a full 48 minutes tonight. The Celtics posted a 58% effective field goal percentage with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 120.8. They outscored Miami by a 62-40 point margin in the paint. But there is still room for improvement since Boston only made 34.5% of their 3-point attempts while only launching 29 shots from behind the arc. They should take more 3s tonight given their average of 42 shots from 3-point range per game this season — and they are making 39.8% of their 3-pointers in the postseason. Mazzulla will probably not play Robert Williams III as much since he struggled in defending the Heat’s perimeter players — the Celtics had a 145 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when he was on the court in Game One.  Miami made 54.1% of their shots which was the Celtics’ worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. Boston should bounce back tonight as they tend to play better when their backs are against the wall. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games after a loss in the last two postseasons including after four of their five playoff losses this year. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 second games in a playoff series, they have covered the point spread 5 times. Miami enjoyed their best shooting mark in their last 11 games with their 54.1% shooting — and they made 16 of their 31 shots (52%) from behind the arc including 57% of their non-corner 3s. The Heat are due a visit from the Regression Gods after posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of 65.1% despite an expected eFG of 50.8%. Miami’s eFG in this postseason is 54.4%. Miami has won the opening game in all three of their playoff series this year — but they followed that up with a 138-122 loss at Milwaukee and then a 111-105 loss at New York in the second games of both those series. The Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after a point spread victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. And in their last 26 games after winning two games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread 18 times.

FINAL TAKE: Boston laid an egg in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami last season — but they bounced back by blowing out the Heat by a 127-102 score despite being on the road. Home teams in Game Twos coming off a loss in Game One have won 16 straight times in the NBA playoffs — and the seven Game Two winners have an average margin of victory of +17.7 points with six of those winners all being by double-digits. 25* NBA Friday TNT Game of the Year is with the Boston Celtics (538) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Vegas Golden Knights (43) plus the +1.5 Puck-Line versus the Edmonton Oilers (44) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vegas (58-25-9) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 4-3 victory at home against the Oilers on Friday. Edmonton (56-27-10) has lost three of their last five games as they look to avoid elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS PLUS THE +1.5 PUCK-LINE: Vegas won the important fifth game in this series to take a 3-2 series lead by generating 4.2 expected goals against an Oilers team that has some deficiencies on the defensive end of the ice. Both teams were without their top defenseman in that game with Alex Pietrangelo and Darnell Nurse suspended for that game. Frankly, the loss of Pietrangelo was more impactful — so Edmonton blew a big opportunity to steal that game. The Golden Knights are the more experienced team when it comes to deep playoff experience. They have a 52.34% expected goals share in this series at five-on-five. It will be critical for them to play disciplined tonight and avoid giving the Oilers power play opportunities. In their two losses in this series, Vegas gave up too many early penalties and fell behind. But those tactics may have lost the battle but won the war as it has lulled Edmonton into playing a physical series which is not the style of play that best takes advantage of the skillset of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Golden Knights have demonstrated that they can play controlled and disciplined when they need to do so. Their performance in Game Three when they dominated the Oilers on the road with a 5-1 victory will be the template for success tonight. They should build off their momentum tonight as they have won 21 of their last 31 games on the road after winning their previous game — and they have won 38 of their last 50 games after a one-goal win against a division rival. Vegas has now won seven of their last nine games — and they have won 27 of their last 40 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Golden Knights are dangerous in this spot because they are so comfortable playing on the road. They have a 29-16 record on the road this season with a +0.5 net goal differential — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games away from home. They are also getting good goaltending from Adin Hill who stopped 32 of the 35 shots he faced on Friday. Since taking over for the injured Laurent Brossoit, Hill has a 2.25 Goals-Against-Average and a .927 save percentage with a 2-1 record. He also has a +0.8 Goals-Saved-Above-Expected mark indicating he is performing above league expectations for goaltenders. Good goaltending goes hand-in-hand with good defense — and the Golden Knights get Pietrangelo back for this game. They have won 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. Edmonton had a five-minute power play late in the second period but could not score — and that was a big blow to the confidence of this team. The Oilers had the best power play in the history of the NHL in the regular season — but this team may be too dependent on drawing opportunities with the man advantage. They get Game Six at home — but they are just 26-20 at home this season. Edmonton has lost 9 of their last 15 games at home after a loss by one goal. Finally, there is the issue of the Oilers' goaltending situation. Stuart Skinner was pulled for the third time in this situation on Friday after giving up four goals on 22 shots. The rookie is dealing with confidence issues. He has a 3.52 GAA and a .890 save percentage in 11 playoff games this year. Head coach Jay Woodcroft may turn to backup Jack Campbell after he stopped all nine shots he faced on Friday. But Campbell had an underwhelming 3.41 GAA and a .888 save percentage in 36 games in the regular season after not being able to win the job from Skinner — and he has his own confidence issues after disappointing postseasons with Toronto. Shaky goaltending is not a reliable formula for a team facing playoff elimination. And this Edmonton team has a disadvantage behind the bench with Woodcroft matching tactics with the Golden Knights’ Bruce Cassidy who won a Stanley Cup for Boston.

FINAL TAKE: Both of the Oilers’ wins in this series have been by three or more goals — but in their previous six victories, three were by just one goal. Furthermore, Edmonton has failed to cover the 1.5 puck-line spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored at a price above -150 — while they won three of those games by more than one goal, they won two of those games by just the one goal and got upset three times. In an expected coin flip game, let’s invest in the valuable +1.5 puck-line since it is priced below my -150 threshold. 25* NHL 25* NHL Pacific Division Puck-Line of the Year with the Vegas Golden Knights (43) plus the +1.5 Puck-Line versus the Edmonton Oilers (44). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (61-31) saw their two-game winning streak in this series snapped with a 95-86 loss at home to the Celtics as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (64-30) forced this climactic seventh game of this series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Thoughtful handicapping of the over/under for this game needs to resolve why the total has dropped more than 10 points than the common 211.5-point number that Game Six closed at. The books typically drop the Total several points in Game Sevens — but the drop for this Game Seven is remarkable from a historical perspective. Something else is going on — especially when the public is hitting the Over for this game. The 76ers shot a season-low 36.1% from the field on Thursday. Was that an outlier effort — or was it a canary in the coal mine and harbinger as to what to expect moving forward in this series? I concluded it is the latter. The Celtics have had plenty of success against the Sixers in the Joel Embiid era. They had won 12 of their 17 games at home against Embiid going into Game Five including all six games in the postseason. But Philadelphia pulled off a 115-103 upset win with them making 50.6% of their shots. Frankly, the Celtics may have been simply overconfident in that game as their defensive effort was laughable in that game. They were embarrassingly bad at times defending the basic 76ers’ pick-and-roll play between James Harden and Joel Embiid. The tape offered head coach Joe Mazzula a great opportunity to seize an attentive audience to get back to fundamentals as to how they want to defend that play. In Game Six, Boston remained focused on defending Embiid after picks and dare Philly’s role players beat them. That defensive approach will continue in Game Seven given the stakes — and the onus will be on these players stepping on the road with the Celtics likely double-teaming Embiid and doing what they can to deny him the ball. It is telling that the 76ers have shot under 40% in their three losses in this series. More evidence that the low-scoring game in Game Six will carry over into Game Seven is that Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. Boston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after beating an Atlantic Divisional rival in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. They have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. The Celtics have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 6 straight Unders in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era when facing potential elimination in the playoffs. The Celtics have also played 7 of their last 10 Game Sevens Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 Game Sevens Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 8 playoff potential close-out games Under the Total including both close-out games this postseason. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (509) and the Boston Celtics (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (53-24-16) has won two games in a row in this series after their 5-2 victory at home against the Kraken on Thursday. Seattle (52-34-8) has lost three of their last four games to fall behind in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Kraken got an inspired goaltending effort from Philip Grubauer in the first round of the playoffs who seemed motivated to prove something to his old team — he posted a .934 save percentage in that seven-game series with Seattle upsetting Colorado and dethroning the reigning Stanley Cup champions. But Grubauer has regressed back to his underwhelming play in this series which has made him a big disappointment for this expansion club that targeted him as their big free agent signing before their inaugural season last year. Grubauer has allowed nine goals in the last two games while posting a .786 save percentage. His postseason numbers of a 3.06 Goals-Against-Average and a .903 save percentage look very close to his regular season numbers. At home during the regular season, Grubauer had a 3.06 GAA and a .886 save percentage. Seattle has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by three or more goals. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing four or more goals in two straight games. The Kraken face the prospect of elimination tonight — so they will be aggressive and will pull Grubauer to grab the man advantage earlier than usual if they are trailing in the third period. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Dallas has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring five or more goals in their last game. And while they have scored 11 combined goals in the last two games, the Stars have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road after scoring four or more goals in two straight games. Dallas has also received disappointing goaltending in this series. Jake Oettinger has a 2.65 GAA and a .907 save percentage in the postseason. In his last three games, he has allowed 10 goals while posting a .851 save percentage. The Stars go on the road looking to end this series tonight — and the Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games on the road. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 26 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, the Over is 17-4-5.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 straight Overs — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Seattle. The Kraken have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses by two or more goals. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (37) and the Seattle Kraken (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Golden State (50-44) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 121-106 win at home as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Los Angeles (51-43) still holds a 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 51.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But now Golden State may be without Andrew Wiggins who is questionable with fractured cartilage in his ribs. Wiggins may still play because his defense against LeBron James is so important — but his offensive efforts will probably be limited. The Warriors have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, Golden State has played 19 of their last 28 games in the playoffs Under the Total when trailing in the series — and they have played 10 of their last 14 playoff games Under the Total when facing potential elimination. Los Angeles played their worst game on defense in their last 14 contests by allowing the Warriors to make 51.1% of their shots. The Lakers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Under the Total when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight Unders when battling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. 25* NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (503) and the Los Angeles Lakers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Florida (49-37-7) was on a six-game winning streak before their 2-1 loss at home to the Maple Leafs on Wednesday. Toronto (55-25-12) still trails in this series by a 3-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Maple Leafs have scored exactly two goals in six straight games — but the books and the market have not adjusted with the Total still set at 6.5 tonight. Toronto has abandoned their aggressive offensive approach to play more cautiously and with a defensive mindset. They only generated 2.66 expected goals on Wednesday while only 25 shots. They have no more than 30 shots in four of their last six games — and they have not topped more than 25 shots in three of those games. But this approach is making life easier for their goaltender as they have held Florida to under 30 shots in all four games in this series. Head coach Sheldon Keefe seems committed to this philosophy against the high-scoring Panthers — and he will likely stick to this plan with rookie Joseph Woll between the pipes. He stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced on Wednesday. Woll has talent. His 2.37 Goals-Against-Average and .927 save percentage in 21 appearances in the AHL was similar to his 2.16 GAA and .932 save percentage in his seven starts in the regular season. He passed the tough test in Game Four in a hostile environment. Toronto has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a one-goal victory against a division opponent in their last game. They have played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs have played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in four straight games. They have also played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Florida has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They are getting outstanding goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky who is in the zone right now with a 1.99 GAA and a .934 save percentage in this series. The Panthers have played 8 straight Unders on the road in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games when leading in the series.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight Unders — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Toronto. 25* NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Florida Panthers (29) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (30). Best of luck for us — Frank.