At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10  home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (8-10) snapped their two-game with a 93-78 victory against Pacific as a 12.5-point favorite on Thursday. San Diego (10-8) has lost three games in a row after their 83-63 loss at home to San Francisco as a 10-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wave was never a good defensive team this season — and they are getting crushed on that end of the court now that conference play has started. Pepperdine has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last three games in conference action — and West Coast Conference opponents are nailing 51.5% of their shots resulting in 80.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wave ranks 252nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 333rd in the nation with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 54.2%. Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter as their opponents are making 37.1% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 336th in the nation. Pepperdine has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing 75 or more points in their last game — and they have played 32 of their last 49 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 75 or more points in three straight contests. The Wave have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they scored 85 or more points. Pepperdine can score with points — Michael Ajayi leads the WCC in scoring while Houston Mallet has potential NBA talent. The Wave is making 45.6% of their shots in conference play resulting in a respectable 75.6 PPG. But now they go back on the road where their home hosts make 54.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.3 PPG. Pepperdine has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on the road. They have also played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total in conference play. San Diego has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss at home by double-digits. The Toreros have allowed their last three opponents to make 51.7% or more of their shots — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. San Diego is not a great defensive team either — they rank 169th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are perhaps now getting exposed in conference play. In their first three games against West Coast Conference rivals, they are allowing them to make 53.9% of their shots resulting in 88.3 PPG. The Toreros play in high-possession games as well — they rank 41st in the nation with 72.1 adjusted possessions per game. Their opponents only average 16.1 seconds per possession with the ball which is the sixth quickest in the nation. San Diego is scoring 73.4 PPG at home — and they should be able to make 3-pointers against this Waves perimeter defense since they rank 112th in the nation by making 35.1% of their shots from behind the arc. The Toreros have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego won both meetings last season with both games seeing 165 and 181 combined points scored. Pepperdine has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pepperdine Wave (793) and the San Diego Toreros (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 66-61 victory against Boise State as a 2.5-point favorite on December 21st. Utah (9-2) has won six games in a row with their 85-43 win against Bellarmine as a 20.5-point favorite on December 20th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars have played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They play stout defense for head coach Kyle Smith — they are holding their opponents to 37.3% shooting resulting in 62.5 Points-Per-Game. Washington State will slow this game down — they average 17.3 seconds per possession, ranking 179th in Adjusted Pace while their opponents take 18.0 seconds per possession, ranking 302nd in Adjusted Pace. The Cougars rank fifth in the nation in Opponent’s Effective Field Goal Percentage of 42.5% — and they rank in the top-19 in the country in opponent 3-point shooting and 2-point shooting. They also rank 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to pulling down only 23.7% of their missed shots. And their block rate of 15.5% of their opponent’s shot attempts ranks 12th in the country. Washington State has been a bit unlucky with their opponents’ free throws as well — their opponents have made 76.5% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 342nd in the nation. The Utes only make 71.3% of their free throws, so the Cougars should get some points back in that area tonight. Overall, Washington State ranks 35th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rise to 24th in the nation in that metric when playing away from home with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency mark of 93.8. But while the Cougars rank 89th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 197th in that category when away from home with a 101.6 efficiency mark. The 67.2 PPG they score away from home is a -10.2 net PPG drop from their overall average. Washington State has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Utah has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop by -1.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing at home where they rank 56th in the nation. But the Utes are holding their opponents to 37.8% shooting resulting in 63.2 PPG with their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking 38th in the nation — and that ranking improving to 20th in the country with that mark lowering to 89.8. Utah ranks eighth in the nation in Opponent’s Free Throw Rate. The Utes have held their last three opponents to no better than 37.5% shooting — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing three straight opponents to shoot better than 40%.

FINAL TAKE: Utah has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Washington State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (871) and the Utah Utes (872). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (35) and the New Jersey Devils (36). THE SITUATION: Columbus (11-18-6) has lost two games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Toronto on Saturday. New Jersey (17-13-2) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory against Detroit on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blue Jackets defense is a disaster — they have allowed at least three goals in six straight games with five of those six opponents scoring at least four goals. But Columbus has generated 4.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. The Blue Jackets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four contests. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Columbus will have Elvis Merzlikins between the pipes tonight — but it has been a struggle given his 3.57 Goals-Against-Average and a .897 save percentage in ten starts on the road. New Jersey is a potent scoring team with lots of depth — they have eight players with at least seven goals this season. Jack Hughes leads the way with 14 goals and 38 points in 26 games. Jesper Bratt has added 13 goals and 37 points in his 31 games. The Devils are generating 3.4 Goals-Per-Game. The reason why they are underachieving is their defense and goaltending. New Jersey ranks 30th in the NHL by allowing 3.61 Goals-Per-Game. The Devils have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning their previous game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. They have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by just one goal. And in their last six games when playing with three or more days of rest, New Jersey has played 5 of these games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Vitek Vanecek gets the nod as their goaltender tonight — he has a rough 3.38 GAA and a .880 save percentage in his 13 games (11 starts) at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Devils won the last meeting between these teams back on December 16th in Columbus by a 6-3 score — and the Blue Jackets have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Columbus Blue Jackets (35) and the New Jersey Devils (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in  28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-13) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-104 upset loss to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis (9-19) has won three games in a row after their 125-119 win at Atlanta as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans only made 46.3% of their shots against the Rockets on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They should shoot better tonight — the return of Trey Murphy from injury gives the team the outside shooting threat it craved to open up space inside for Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to drive to the hole. The Pelicans are still making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 119.6 Points-Per-Game. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a Southwest Division rival. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after a loss at home in their previous contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games. Memphis has won all three of their games since Ja Morant completed his 25-game suspension. They nailed 51.5% of their shots against the Hawks on Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But the Grizzlies have not been reliable not reliable on the road relative to point spread expectations with Morant on the court. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games as an underdog -- and that includes them finishing last season on a 5-18 ATS run with Morant as an underdog before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and 23 of those games go back to last season with Morant given their 4-6 ATS mark as a road dog this season. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 21 road games as an underdog of up to six points after covering the point spread once in their four road games getting up to six points this season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against Southwest Division rivals.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a 115-113 loss at home to Memphis as an 8-point underdog on December 19th in Morant’s season debut — and the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the New Orleans Pelicans (508) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (507). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). THE SITUATION: Dallas (17-12) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (14-14) has lost four of their last five games after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was just a few years ago when I was grappling with Golden State games on Christmas Day where the Total reached the rarified air of 230 or higher. Now four of the five games today have Totals set at 235 or higher. Some observers think this is a result of the ever-improving skill set of the players. It’s not. More 3-point shooting combined with more teams playing at a faster pace has contributed to the higher-scoring games — but the key ingredient for these big totals remains the lack of effort on defense. The nightcap tonight features two teams who consider defense an afterthought. Dallas ranks 23rd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 50.8% of their shots resulting in 122.2 Points-Per-Game. Led by Luka Doncic who may be enjoying his best season yet in his career, the Mavericks are scoring 119.0 PPG themselves this season. They did hold the woeful Spurs to 44.9% shooting two days ago which was the best defensive effort in their last eight games. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a double-digit victory, the Mavericks have played 6 of these games Over the Total. Dallas is dealing with several injuries impacting their depth. Kyrie Irving has been out since December 8th with a foot injury. The team has been without rookie Derrick Lively II as well with an ankle injury — and his absence has taken away their best rim protector. He is listed as questionable to possibly return to action tonight (I like the Over even if he plays, FYI). Now the Mavericks go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road when the Total is set at 230 or higher. Furthermore, Dallas has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. Phoenix only made 44.3% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight contests. The Suns have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. And while their loss to the Kings finished far below the 244-point total, they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their previous contest. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Phoenix returns home where they are making 48.7 of their shots resulting in 116.9 PPG. The Suns have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored. Phoenix is dealing with injuries as well. Bradley Beal is once again out with his back issues. Jusuf Nurkic is out for personal reasons as well leaving the team without their best rim protector. As it is, the Suns rank just 17 in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.6% of their shots resulting in 118.4 PPG. Led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, this team is not doing much besides putting up scoring points while drastically underachieving their preseason expectations. Phoenix has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is allowing their opponents to make 48.6% of their shots —and the Suns have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with opponent field goal percentages of 46% or higher. And while Phoenix has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.3%, the Mavericks have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make 46% or more of their shots. 25* NBA Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (593) and the Phoenix Suns (594). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648) in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic. THE SITUATION: Nevada (11-1) reached the title game of this holiday tournament with their 88-75 upset win against TCU as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Georgia Tech (8-3) joined them in this title game with a 73-68 upset victory against Hawai’i on their home court as a 2.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawai’i.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada is a very experienced team that ranks seventh in the nation in returning Division I experience from their team that won 22 games that lost to Arizona State in a First Four game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning four of their last five contests. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They did allow the Horned Frogs to make 45.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. TCU was the pre-tournament favorite to win this event. Nevada ranks 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Head coach Steve Alford’s team has a high floor given the strong fundamentals that he has instilled into this team. The Wolf Pack ranks 12th in the nation by turning the ball over in 13.6% of their possessions. They also get to the free throw line as they rank seventh in the nation in free throw rate. Nevada has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing with only one day or less of rest. Georgia Tech has pulled off three straight upsets in this tournament after beating Penn State and UMass before their victory against the Rainbow Warriors on Friday. For the record, none of those three teams are ranked in the top 100 teams in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. The Yellow Jackets do have nice wins against Duke and Mississippi State this season — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against opponents making at least 45% of their shots and holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting. The Wolf Pack are nailing 47.3% of their shots while holding their opponents to 39.0% shooting. First-year head coach Damon Stoudemire is doing a nice job with this team. They have played much better since he started playing Nathan George. After not even playing in the first few games, the freshman is now the team’s starting point guard. But with freshman Baye Ndongu also in the starting lineup, this is a young team that may be particularly susceptible to a letdown. Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a victory by six points or less in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five o their last six games. The Yellow Jackets thrive by crashing the glass — they rank seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 37.6% of their missed shots. But getting second chance opportunities will be difficult against Nevada who hold their opponents to rebounding only 25.0% of their missed shots, ranking 50th in the nation. Georgia Tech’s problem is they lack a Plan B to generate points. They are making only 29.0% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 316th in the nation. They only force turnovers in 13.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 352nd in the nation (as if forcing Wolf Pack turnovers was a viable strategy anyway).

FINAL TAKE: Nevada has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against non-conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored. 25* CBB Diamond Head Classic Game of the Year with the Nevada Wolf Pack (647) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3  loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.

FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess.  That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                              

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (13-13) has lost three straight games after their 125-108 upset loss at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (15-11) has won two of their last three contests after their 114-109 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks come off an emotional victory against the Lakers which was a personal revenge spot for Julius Randle facing his previous team. They held Los Angeles to just 42.4% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last nine contests. The team endured challenging traveling circumstances after staying over in Los Angeles Monday night before traveling cross country yesterday. Now they finish their five-game road stand against their cross-town rivals. Consistency has not been a strength of this team that has up-and-down players like R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Randle. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games after a victory by six points or less. New York is playing without Mitchell Robinson who is out another two months with an ankle injury. Not only is Robinson the lynchpin of the Knicks' defense as their primary rim protector, but he also leads the NBA by pulling down 5.3 offensive rebounds per game. New York is thin at center with backup Jericho Sims now also out with an ankle injury. The Knicks are getting outscored by -0.7 net Points-Per-Game while allowing their home hosts to make 48.5% of their missed shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn allowed the Jazz to make 49.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four contests. The Nets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.8 PPG.  The Nets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court at the Barclays Center. Brooklyn has a +1.1 Adjusted Net Rating this season despite one of the more difficult opening schedules in the league — and they post a +7.7 Adjusted Net Rating when playing at home. After Cam Thomas missed time due to an injury, he has returned to action and leads the team by scoring 24 PPG. Head coach Jacque Vaughn encourages his team to bomb away from 3 — the Nets rank fifth in the NBA by getting 37.9% of their points from behind the arc and they are second in the league by nailing 38.7% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who are making 36% or more of their 3-pointers. And while New York allows their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field, Brooklyn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Nets have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Underdog of the Month with the Brooklyn Nets (539) plus the points versus the New York Knicks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (16-10) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 122-119 victory at San Antonio against the Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. San Antonio (3-20) has lost 18 games in a row after that setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lakers made 53.8% of their shots on Wednesday despite LeBron James taking the night off with his nagging left calf issue. James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight — but I suspect both will play tonight (and I was skeptical about James playing on Wednesday). James and Davis are listed as questionable for most games as a way to soft-play load management. With this game on national television (ESPN) in an opportunity to pad some stats, both stars have incentives to play. Perhaps this game against the lowly Spurs is an opportunity for Davis to get the night off (with James returning to action) — and that only helps our Over play since Davis is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Lakers are clicking on offense with an attack that lives in transition and thrives at the rim. Los Angeles is second in the NBA in shot frequency at the rim where they are then making 70.2% of their shots — and they lead the NBA in transition possessions. In their last five games, the Lakers are nailing 50.2% of their shots which results in 121.8 Points-Per-Game. LA has made at least 53.4% of their shots in their last four contests — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three or more games in a row. They have played 23 of their last 30 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six contests. This is Los Angeles’ third game on the road since Tuesday — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Over the Total when playing for the third time in their last four games. They stay on the road where they are making 49.4% of their shots which results in 115.1 PPG — but they are allowing their home hosts to make 46.2% of their shots and 117.2 PPG. The Lakers have not engaged with as much urgency lately in games outside the In-Season Tournament on the defensive end of the court lately. Their last five opponents are making 44.1% of their shots from behind the arc -- and they rank 23rd in transition defense during that span. San Antonio has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Spurs allowed the Lakers to score 62 points in the paint — they rank 26th in the league by allowing their opponents to make 67.9% of their shots within four feet. They also are turning the ball over too much as head coach Greg Popovich continues to audition second-year forward Jeremy Sochan as their point guard. San Antonio ranks 26th in the NBA by turning the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions — and those miscues will create more scoring opportunities for the Lakers in transition. The Spurs stay at home where they are making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc as opposed to their 31.2% shooting from 3-point range when on the road. They raise their shooting percentage by +1.7% when playing at home with a 46.9% mark — and the 114.9 PPG scoring average at home is an improvement of +5.1 points versus their season average. But San Antonio also allowed 122.3 PPG at home which is a +0.9 rise over their season average as well. The Spurs have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 48 home games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has played 30 of their last 48 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their 5 games Over the Total this season against teams winning 60-70% of their games. The Lakers have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Finally, the Spurs have played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (533) and the San Antonio Spurs (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: While both of these teams are dealing with a host of injuries, the internal cohesion of these two squads is quite different. For Las Vegas, the Wicked Witch of the West, Josh McDaniels, has already been fired — so the locker room is happy. The players like interim head coach Antonio Pierce — and the former New York Giants star linebacker remains a candidate to be named the head coach moving forward. The team has consistently played hard for him since he took over — and they have taken the field for him despite being on the injured list during the week. So while defensive end Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams are listed as questionable, I expect both to play. Crosby did not practice this week which is not unusual on a short week. Adams came down with an illness yesterday but he should be able to play through it 36 hours later. Crosby and Adams will be the best two players on the field if they play tonight — and that is a consideration I undervalued earlier this year when the Raiders hosted Green Bay. Superstars matter — especially in games between two mediocre teams. Running back Josh Jacobs' questionable status is more in doubt with a quad — but if he plays, Pierce says it will be the “Josh Jacobs Show” and we should be in great shape. Even if he doesn’t, home-field advantage should help pave the way for this team. Las Vegas has been solid at home with a 4-3 record along with a +2.0 net Points-Per-Game margin and a +6.7 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Raiders' defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to three points. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in their last game. The expectation is that Pierce will turn back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after not committing to a starter after the offense failed to score a point. As long as it is not Brian Hoyer, the Raiders offense should rebound with a better effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. The story of Los Angeles is much more dire. Their season is done after the season-ending right finger injury to quarterback Justin Herbert last week. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons. Head coach Brandon Staley will almost certainly be fired at the end of the season (although I thought he was a goner last year at this time). First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is also likely to be let go — if not, management would have elevated him to be the interim head coach to give him a test run as the potential next head coach. Given comments to the press like from veteran Austin Ekeler, the team does not particularly like Staley with his reckless fourth down decisions and failure to improve the defense. In hindsight, his resume from being the defensive coordinator during the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl run seems to be thanks to the presence of Aaron Donald. I’m skeptical regarding the kind of effort the Chargers’ players are going to provide tonight for their lame-duck coaches. Injuries leave the remaining talent thin. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. And on the other side of the ball, defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is out tonight with a sprained foot. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th. Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the Dallas Super Bowl as they both host their arch-rivals and have the opportunity to post their first victory against a team with a winning record this season. Head coach Mike McCarthy missing time this week after an emergency appendectomy is not ideal — but the team had extra days to rest and prepare for this rematch from just last month so I don’t consider those circumstances substantial enough to change the play. The Cowboys' offense has been on another level since their bye week when McCarthy decided to be more aggressive in the passing game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has in his entire career — he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has stepped up as a dangerous second option to CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Left tackle Tyron Smith is playing at a very high level again. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The Cowboys' defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — but they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 30 or more points. The Cowboys stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 15 games going back to last season. They are generating 438.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 41.0 PPG this season — and they are outscoring their guests by +24.2 net PPG with their defense only allowing 15.8 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points. I don’t love fading a team that just got beat by 23 points — but this looks like a lull period for the Eagles who are in a terrible situational spot. Teams tend to struggle after playing the physical 49ers in the previous week — and this has been a  brutal stretch of games for Philadelphia having previously played Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. Philly surviving this stretch with a 3-2 mark was considered a very acceptable result before the season started — and they have already clinched that accomplishment even with a loss tonight. The Eagles have been getting by with smoke and mirrors as well — they have been outgained in yardage in five straight contests. Furthermore, their net point differential mark of +58 points is a historically low number — since 2008, that mark ranks 56 of the 58 NFL teams that had won at least ten games after Week 13. Philly’s linebackers have been a weak link — and the defense is not generating enough pass rush. Since Week Eight, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL with a sack rate of 4.4% — and their 10 sacks during that span that ranks 27th in the league. Their sack rate of 5.3% on third down this season ranks 30th in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 260 YPG — and they rank 31st in the league in touchdown passes allowed. In their last four games, they are allowing 29.0 PPG. The Eagles have not been resilient lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have only scored six and seven points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their blowout loss to the 49ers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Prescott thrives against divisional rivals — he has a 30-8 straight-up record in starts against the NFC East with 72 touchdown passes and only 20 interceptions while posting a Passer Rating of 101. Against the Eagles at home at A&T Stadium, Prescott has a 5-1 career record with 12 touchdown passes. In the their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th, Dallas got inside the Eagles’ territory in their final four possessions but only came away with nine points due to some unusual circumstances. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). THE SITUATION: Michigan (4-5) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after a 78-75 upset loss at home to Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 90-65 loss at Iowa State as an 8-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After opening the season by playing good team defense, the play on that end of the court has fallen apart for the Wolverines. After the Hoosiers made 51.7 of their shots against them, Michigan has allowed four of their last six opponents to make at least 50.0% of their shots. Their last five opponents are making 48.0% of their shots which is resulting in 77.2 Points-Per-Game. The Wolverines rank 131st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The weakest link has been their perimeter defense as their opponents are nailing 39.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 349th in the nation. Michigan has remained competitive in most of their games because of their balanced offensive attack. They rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency based on their balanced scoring attack — they rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.7%. They are making 49.1% of their shots including 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc to generate 81.2 PPG. The Wolverines have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. And while this is Michigan’s second game since last Saturday, they have played 28 of their latest 39 games Over the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. Iowa only made 38.6% of their shots against the Cyclones — and that was on the heels of their 38.5% shooting effort at Purdue in their previous game. The Cyclones have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while Iowa State has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are making 51.1% of their shots including 39.2% of their 3-pointers which is resulting in 99.7 PPG. Facing the porous Wolverines' defense may be just what the doctor ordered for this Hawkeyes team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But Iowa struggles on the other end of the court where they rank 147th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.7% of their shots which has resulted in those five opponents to average 81.2 PPG. The Hawkeyes have played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 16 of their last 21 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in Big Ten play — and Michigan has played 30 of their last 42 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (855) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (856). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562) in the Quarterfinals of the In-Season Tournament. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (12-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 116-109 victory against Memphis as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (12-9) has won two of their last three games after their 107-97 victory against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix hopes to make a deep run in the NBA playoffs let by their Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — but Beal has only played in three games this season as he deals with a chronic back issue. Booker has missed nine games as well due to various injuries — and this Suns team is much better when he is available to team up with Durant. Phoenix has a 9-2 record with Booker healthy — they are just 3-6 without him — and they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 Points-Per-Game when Booker plays. Digging deeper, while the Suns have a +3.1 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin this season, that number jumps to a +11.2 mark when Booker is on the court. When Booker is off the court, they have a -3.2 net Adjusted Efficiency Margin. So Phoenix is a significantly better team when Booker is available and able to pair with Durant. Booker scored 34 points and added 10 rebounds in the victory against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The Suns were whistled for 21 personal fouls while drawing 31 fouls in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after drawing ten or more personal fouls than what they committed in their last game. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. The Suns only have a 4-5 record at home this season — but they have a 7-3 record on the road where they are tightening things up on defense. While Phoenix is allowing their opponents to score 113.2 Points-Per-Game on 46.3% shooting, those numbers drop to 111.6 PPG on 44.7% shooting when they are on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Los Angeles held the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a point spread loss. There is a narrative that this In-Season Tournament means just a little more to LeBron James as a student of the game who would love to win this inaugural tournament — and this thought is supported by the Lakers leading the NBA with their +74 net point differential in group play of the event. Point differential was one of the tie-breakers to advance to the Quarterfinals — so everyone was incentivized to run up the score. But besides playing the Suns in the group stage, Los Angeles benefited from an easy schedule against Portland, Utah, and Memphis who combine for an 18-40 record with none of those three teams posting a winning percentage above .350. Each player from the winning team in this tournament is awarded a cash prize -- so every Phoenix player has $500,000 reasons to care about this game as well. James is questionable to play tonight with a calf issue — and Gabe Vincent is out with a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice this season including their 122-119 upset victory in Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on November 10th in the In-Season Tournament Group Stage — but Booker did not play in either game. Tonight’s game will be the first time that Los Angeles plays this Suns team with both Booker and Durant on the court together. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (561) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Lakers (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Louisville (10-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss to Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 24-15 win at Florida as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: I was looking to fade the Seminoles even before the season-ending injury to senior quarterback Jordan Travis. Junior Tate Rodemaker is a big drop in talent — but now his presence in this game is doubtful after he suffered a concussion in last week’s game. He was not great even against subpar Florida defense as he completed 12 of 25 passes for 134 yards. He is a game-time decision — and even if miraculously passes the strict concussion protocols, he has a big challenge tonight. If Rodemaker cannot go, then it is freshman Brock Glenn who will get the start. On the plus side, Glenn was a four-star recruit out of Tennessee who flipped his commitment from Ohio State back to Florida State after long being a target by the Seminoles. However, in my deep dive into the recruiting archives on his history, I am seeing comments such as “will need a year or two of development” before being ready to play at the Power Five level — so this is far from ideal for someone playing against high school players last year. He missed three weeks of practice time due to injury — and he only has four pass attempts in game action this season. He is a pro-style quarterback who will run the ball with his above-average athleticism — but he is not a speedster. He had a proclivity to throw interceptions in high school. Florida State already faces tons of pressure of needing to win this game to make the College Football Playoff. They enjoyed a soft schedule after getting by LSU early in the season — and that was a game where Travis carried them with his play-making against what we would learn was a bad Tigers defense. The Seminoles were very fortunate to beat Clemson who outgained them by +118 net yards. They also got outgained in yardage by Boston College and Miami (FL) but pulled out games decided by one-scoring possession with Travis at quarterback. Florida State only ran for 90 yards last week on 31 carries despite needing to rely on their running backs given the Travis injury — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. While Trey Benson has rushed for a lot of yards, the Seminoles rank 109th in Rushing Success Rate. The problem is their offensive line as they rank only 123rd in the nation in Line Yards. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning eight or more games in a row. Louisville has an excellent defense that holds their opponents to 317.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 20.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Cardinals' defense is balanced as they rank 17th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have a very good defensive line led by defensive end Ashton Gillotte that ranks fifth in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They have generated 30 sacks and 54 tackles for loss — and that will likely spell trouble for the freshman quarterback in his first collegiate start. On offense, the Cardinals are led by an experienced graduate student Jack Plummer who is five years of experience learning under head coach Jeff Brohm in operating his version of the Air Raid offense. Louisville ranks 18th in the nation in Success Rate on offense -- and they are balanced. They rank 20th in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 11th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Cardinals have the opportunity to redeem themselves by giving last week’s in-state rivalry game away against the Wildcats. They gave the ball away three times in the second half including two times inside their 40-yard line to gift Kentucky 10 points and blow their 10-point second-half lead. Louisville has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: If the play at quarterback will not make the difference in this game, the Cardinals have the edge in head coaches as well. Brohm’s teams have covered the point spread in 28 of their 45 games as an underdog going back to his six seasons at Purdue — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +17.0 or more PPG (Florida State: +22.0 PPG). Florida State head coach Mike Norvell’s teams have failed to cover the point spread against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in December. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318) in the SEC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-0) has won 29 straight games after their 31-23 victory against Georgia Tech as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (11-1) has won ten straight games after a 27-24 win at Auburn on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This Bulldogs team is not quite as stout as it has been the previous two seasons. Being a feeder to the NFL has eventually taken its toll on this unit, especially up front. Georgia only ranks 81st in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Now they face Jalen Milroe who has a body type like another former Crimson Tide quarterback — Jalen Hurts. Milroe is averaging 7.24 Yards-Per-Carry (excluding sacks). The Bulldogs have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last nine games after the Yellow Jackets put up 23 points on the scoreboard. Georgia has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread including five of those six circumstances this season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. And in their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. But while their defensive front is not quite as dominant this season, the Georgia offensive line is stacked with at least four future NFLers in that group. The Bulldogs have allowed only ten quarterback sacks all season — and quarterback Carson Beck has been outstanding when given time in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Beck has completed 75% of his passes for 3189 passing yards with 17 touchdown passes. Georgia ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate — and they should be able to run the ball against an Alabama front that is not as stout either from past seasons as they rank 63rd in the nation in Line Yards Allowed. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Alabama has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in conference play. Since returning to the field after getting benched early in the season, Milroe has 26 touchdowns and only five turnovers. He has a big arm — and he ranks fourth in the nation by averaging 21.2 yards per pass attempt of at least 20 air yards. The Crimson Tide generated 451 total yards last week against the Tigers — including that miracle fourth-and-31-yard conversion to win the game. Alabama is going to be feisty in this game. The Crimson Tide has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win against an SEC rival. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They had scored at least 34 points in four straight games before only scoring 27 points last week in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has won 16 straight games played in Atlanta — so they are not going to back down to the reigning two-time National Champions. Despite their mutual reputations for defense, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings against each other Over the Total — and the last three SEC Championship Games have finished Over the Total. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won four games in a row after their 17-15 win at Ball State as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (11-1) won their 11th straight game last Friday in a 32-17 victory at Central Michigan as a 10-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) is the Group of Five version of the Iowa Hawkeyes under head coach Chuck Martin in his tenth season with the program. The RedHawks can struggle to score — they are a run-first team that will play at a slow pace to shorten the game. But their defense is excellent — they rank 15th in the nation in Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. They have held their last four opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those foes scoring more than 16 points. For the season, Miami (OH) is allowing just 323.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.3 PPG. The RedHawks special teams are outstanding as well — Connelly ranks them the best unit in the nation using his SP+ metrics. And this is a team that does not make many mistakes as they rank 11th in the nation in fewest penalty yards. They held the Rockets to just 318 total yards in their first meeting of the season on October 21st in a 21-17 loss as a home underdog getting 2-points. It was in that game that junior quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered his season-ending leg injury. Redshirt sophomore Aveon Smith stepped up in his absence to win the last four games of the season under center. He made nine starts last season for this team (after Gabbert went down with season-ending shoulder injury) including their 24-20 loss to UAB in the Bahamas Bowl — so he has plenty of experience. While Smith is capable with his arm, he offers Miami (OH) a rushing threat — the team is RPO-heavy with him at quarterback. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. And while they got outrushed by -228 net yards to the Cardinals last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrushed by -125 or more yards. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo may be due for an emotional letdown after their strong run through the regular season after an opening-week loss at Illinois. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after beating three straight MAC rivals. They did generate 6.28 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Chippewas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while Toledo has scored at least 31 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 road games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rockets' offense was propped up all season by a soft schedule consisting of mostly mediocre defenses. Their non-conference schedule was against Texas Southern, San Jose State, and the Fighting Illini. They only managed 318 total yards against the RedHawks in the first meeting between these two teams. Junior quarterback DeQaun Finn is prone to mistakes. While he threw 21 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions in the regular season, his “Big Time” throws dropped to just 17 — and he committed 14 turnover-worthy plays according to the metrics at Pro Football Focus. Toledo failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when listed as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in  8 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss of seven points or less. The underdog has won four of the last five Mid-American Conference Championship Games — and three of those dogs were getting more than 3.5 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th.  25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). THE SITUATION: Toronto (8-9) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 105-102 loss at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Brooklyn (8-8) is on a two-game winning streak after their 118-109 victory against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 41.6% of their shots against the Browns which was the worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Raptors can struggle to make shots — especially in the half-court — but they should be able to get their offense going against this Nets team that is underachieving with their play on defense. Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 119.2 Points-Per-Game. Toronto’s size coming from the four forwards in their starting unit helps them get second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank tenth in the league by pulling down 31.0% of their missed shots. The most encouraging development for this team has been with Scottie Barnes in his third season in the league. After struggling with his outside shot in his first two seasons, he is making 37.6% of his 3-pointers this year en route to his 19.0 PPG scoring average. With Fred VanVleet gone in free agency in the offseason, Barnes has stepped up to become the leader of this team — and a front-line of            Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Barnes is a formidable front line. Veteran point guard Dennis Schroder has been solid running the offense in VanVleet’s place. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. Brooklyn continues their six-game home stand with Game Three at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games while being the favorite in their previous two games at home, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after winning two of their last three games. The Nets are undermanned right now with Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons both out with injuries along with Dennis Smith, Jr. questionable with a back injury — and that challenges the depth of this team. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 home games with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto gets to play the role of the spoiler with Brooklyn needing the win to keep their hopes alive of advancing to the Quarterfinals of this In-Season Tournament — Brooklyn advances with a win along with either a Boston loss or if their net point differential is better than the Celtics (if they beat Chicago tonight). The Nets tend to live and die by the 3-point shot — they average 16 made 3s per game while nailing 39.2 % of these shots from behind the arc, ranking third in the league. But the Raptors have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games against teams who average 14 or more made 3s per game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (545) plus the point(s) versus the Brooklyn Nets (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (6-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 17-14 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisville (10-1) has won four games in a row after their 38-31 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to only 257 yards of offense last week — but they only managed 293 total yards in the three-point loss. Kentucky’s defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 total Yards-Per-Game — but they are only generating 272.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats have played 42 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival including four straight Under in those circumstances. Kentucky has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kentucky will find it difficult to move the ball against this Cardinals defense. The Wildcats rank 71st in the nation Rushing Success Rate behind a mediocre offensive line that ranks 99th in Line Yards. Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed fueled by a defensive line that ranks 6th in Line Yards. The Cardinals also rank 17th in Opponent Passing Success Allowed. Kentucky stays on the road where they are generating only 278.3 total YPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. Louisville has the ACC Championship Game on deck next week against Florida State. The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. They did allow the Hurricanes to generate 7.47 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP. They return home where they have held their guests to just 277.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 12.5 PPG. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5-10 point range. Louisville does play at a methodical pace on offense to help keep their defense rested — they rank 100th in the nation in seconds-per-play. But the Cardinals rank only 91st in the FBS in Offensive Line Yards — and now they face this Kentucky defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and Louisville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points including eight of those last ten circumstances. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). THE SITUATION: New York (8-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 117-100 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on  Monday. Miami (10-5) won for the ninth time in their last ten games with their 122-96 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on  Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York only made 34.8% of their shots against the Timberwolves in what was tied for the lowest shooting percentage for them all season. That was an outlier effort as the Knicks. Over his last five games, Julius Randle has rebounded from a slow start by scoring 23.6 Points-Per-Game while adding 9.2 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.0 Assists-Per-Game. Mitchell Robinson leads the NBA by pulling down 6.1 offensive RPG. New York is nailing 37.0% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Heat are allowing their opponents to make 38.2% of their 3-pointers. The Knicks should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have outrebounded their last four opponents by at least +6.0 RPG — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outrebounding four straight opponents by +5.0 or RPG. And while the Knicks had covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home where they have covered 3 of their last 4 contests. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last three games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing their last four games on the road. Miami made 52.3% of their shots on Wednesday which was their highest field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Heat have covered the point spread in two straight games as a favorite but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row as a favorite. Their game with the Cavaliers cruised Over the 211-point Total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Miami has not allowed more than 102 points in three straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They are still allowing their opponents to make 47.1 of their shots this season — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. The Heat have been getting by without Tyler Herro — but they have been fortunate to play a softer schedule lately which has included games against Chicago (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Duncan Robinson has stepped in Herro’s absence by scoring 20 PPG in those last six games while making 49% of his 3-pointers on 8.5 attempts per game — but he is out for this game with a thumb injury which leaves Miami light on outside shooting with Herro still out as well.

FINAL TAKE: This is New York’s first opportunity to play the Heat since losing to them in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in the playoffs last spring. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month is with the New York Knicks (562) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). THE SITUATION: Orlando (5-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 112-97 upset victory at home against Milwaukee as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Brooklyn (5-5) has won two of their last three games after their 102-94 win against Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic are playing outstanding defense after holding the Bucks to just 97 points. After ranking sixth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 57 games last season, they currently rank tied for second in the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 105.8. With two 6’10 big men in their starting rotation Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has size that makes it difficult on their opponents. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Magic have covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Orlando only ranks 21st in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with this roster probably needing more scoring. Injuries will not help their cause to night with point guard Markelle Fultz and forward Wendall Carter, Jr. out tonight — and shooting guard Gary Harris is questionable with a groin injury. He is the team’s best shooter who nailed 43% of his shots from behind the arc last year. The Magic are making only 45.0% of their shots on the road which is resulting in only 108.2 Points-Per-Game away from home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has played 30 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total at home after a win at home. The Nets are beginning to play better defense as they have held their last three opponents to no higher than a 43.6% shooting percentage after holding the Wizards to 37.5% shooting. Not having center Nic Claxton early on held the play of their defense back. In the two games he has played, the Nets are allowing just over 100 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Cam Johnson is another good defender for them who missed seven games in a row before getting back on the court for their last two contests. Brooklyn has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 105 or fewer points — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. And while the Nets have played three straight Unders, they have then played 18 of their las 27 games Under the Total after playing three straight Unders. Brooklyn will miss Cam Thomas tonight who is out with a left ankle injury. He is scoring 26.9 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench but has missed the last two games. Ben Simmons will also miss his fourth straight game with a hip injury — and while he does not score many points, he contributes with assists and rebounds on the offensive end of the court. In their last five games, they are making only 42.9% of their shots which is generating only 109.6 PPG — but they are holding their last five opponents to 43.4 shooting. The Nets have played 23 of their last 32 home games when favored by up to six points — and they have played 20 of their last 31 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when the game is at the Barclays Center. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (569) and the Brooklyn Nets (570). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-5) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 24-21 loss at Duke as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina State (6-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in a 20-6 win against Miami (FL) at home as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest lost to the Blue Devils despite outgaining them by +133 net yards in that game. Look for the Demon Deacons to respond this afternoon with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to an ACC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by seven points or less against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The biggest question I had for this team in the preseason deep dive was whether Wake Forest’s seven-game bowl streak was in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson. Only 11 starters returned from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Clawson is getting solid play out of fourth-year sophomore Mitch Griffis at quarterback — he completed 16 of 19 passes for 241 yards while adding 55 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in the losing effort against Duke. The Demon Deacons played what still remains a good Clemson team close earlier this season in a 17-12 loss. With four victories and games at Notre Dame and Syracuse on deck, this is likely the critical game to maintain Clawson’s bowl streak alive. NC State was riding high after following up their 24-17 upset win against Clemson as a 10-point underdog with their upset win against the Hurricanes. But then sophomore quarterback M.J. Morris surprised the coaching staff by retaining his year of eligibility by taking his redshirt option for the rest of the season. Now head coach Dave Doeren has to turn back to Brennan Armstrong who got benched at the end of September for Morris due to ineffective play. Expectations were high when Armstrong transferred in from Virginia to reunite with offensive coordinator Robert Anae who was his former OC with the Cavaliers. But Armstrong did not fit with Doeren’s more compact offensive philosophy than his successful 2021 campaign with Anae. He completed only 58.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average is a career-low. The Wolfpack appear primed for an emotional letdown under these circumstances — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Both of their upset wins were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row at home. Now they go back on the road where they are only scoring 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 road games when favored including five of their last seven games under those circumstances. NC State may have six wins but they have benefitted from a 3-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They have been outgained this season by -13.6 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has a 51-38-1 ATS record as an underdog under Clawson — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 48 games as an underdog following a loss with Clawson as their head coach. This is the Demon Deacons' last home game of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (2-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 132-116 upset loss to Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Washington (2-5) snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hornets should rebound with a strong effort in this immediate rematch. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a divisional opponent. The Hornets are undermanned with Terry Rozier out with a groin injury and Mikhail Bridges serving a ten-game suspension (at least). Charlotte is struggling on defense with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that ranks 28th in the NBA. They have allowed 124 or more points in four straight games — and their last five opponents have made at least 47.3% of their shots against them. But the personality of this team under head coach Steve Clifford is to tighten things up after stretches like this. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 120 or more points in four straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after allowing their last three opponents to make 47% or more of their shots, 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last four opponents to shoot 47% or better, and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing five straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots. Despite the loss of Rozier and Bridges, Carolina has been effective on offense. They have made 50.7% of their shots in their last five games. On the road, they are making 50.9% of their shots which is generating 120.7 Points-Per-Game. Washington is perhaps Suspect Number One to take nights off this season. They have trailed by 25 or more points in all five of their losses this season. Their defense has been even worse than the Hornets — they rank 29th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents are making 51.7% of their shots which is resulting in 126.9 PPG — and their last five opponents are making 53.4% of their shots as they average 127.8 PPG. They have allowed five straight opponents — and six of their seven opponents — to make at least 50% of their shots. They have surrendered 148 or more points twice already. As it is, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 15 or more points as an underdog. They took a 65-46 lead going into halftime on Wednesday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after owning a 15 or more point lead at halftime of their last contest. Given their defense, they have played five straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing five or more Overs in a row. Jordan Poole was their big addition in the offseason — but he has been erratic by shooting only 41.5% of his shots with a meager 31.9% of his shots behind the arc for a 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wizards return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games at home with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss against their opponent. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Charlotte Hornets (507) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 134-116 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Monday. Minnesota (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 114-109 upset loss against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans played their worst defensive game of the season after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent's field goal percentage against them all season. New Orleans has become a very good defensive team under head coach Willie Green — they ranked sixth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency last season. That loss to the defending NBA champions came on the heels of a 123-105 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. New Orleans has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two in a row by ten or more points. The Pelicans are dealing with several injuries to begin the season — and it gets even worse tonight. C.J. McCollum is dealing with a collapsed lung so he will not take the court. Herbert Jones is questionable with a sore right leg. And, of course, Zion Williamson is taking the game off for personal reasons — leaving Brandon Ingram as the primary scorer against the Timberwolves. New Orleans is a potent scoring team when teams have to address both Williamson and Ingram on the court together — especially with McCollum running the point. But this team lacks outside shooting to open up space for players to drive the lane — the torn meniscus injury of Trey Murphy III has impacted the efficiency of their offense. The Pelicans ranks tied for 22nd place with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of just 108.4 this season. They did make 50% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort for them this season — but that was with Williamson on the court. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 43 of their last 69 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Minnesota followed up their handing Denver their first loss of the season by doing the same thing to the Celtics on Monday in a game where they nailed 51.8% of their shots — their second-best shooting effort of the season. The Timberwolves have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And while that game with the Nuggets finished Over the Total, they have then played 18 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Minnesota is playing outstanding defense — they lead the league with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 100.7. After holding the explosive Denver scoring attack to just 39.1% of their shots, the Timberwolves have limited five of their six opponents to no higher than 40.2% shooting. The great potential of this team on the defensive end of the court was demonstrated last year despite Karl-Anthony Towns being limited to just 29 games due to injury. The T-Wolves would have led the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency if the numbers they generated with  Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and Towns on the court together were extended to the entire season. On their home court, Minnesota has held their opponents to 39.3% shooting which has resulted in their guests scoring only 95.7 Points-Per-Game. The Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 48 home games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE:  Minnesota has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when hosting the Pelicans. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (571) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). THE SITUATION: USC (7-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 50-49 win at California as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (8-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 42-33 win at Stanford on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the victory last week, the embattled USC defense continued to struggle against the Golden Bears. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. And while they gave up 28 points in the first half to Cal, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. The problems with the USC defense are mostly against the run — but the Huskies are not likely to commit to running the football. They only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry last week against the Cardinal on 27 carries after rushing for a mere 13 yards on 13 carries in their previous game against Arizona State. Washington is being slowed down by issues with the interior of their offensive line — and USC does rush the passer as they rank 11th in the nation in Havoc Rate. The Trojans have talent in their secondary — and that is one of the reasons why they are holding opposing quarterbacks to completing just 61.2% of their passes. USC also ranks 21st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Washington has been sluggish in their last two games after their triumphant win against Oregon — they only beat Arizona State by a 15-8 score before getting outgained by -39 net yards to a struggling Cardinal team. While the head coach Lincoln Riley (rightly) gets criticized for the underperforming Trojans' defense, the Huskies' defense has been just as bad after watching Stanford generate 499 yards against them. The Huskies rank 125th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 115th in Havoc Rate while ranking 118th in Pressure Rate and 131st Sack Rate — and those are frightening numbers when now facing USC’s Caleb Williams who is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 63 or higher. In a game that looks like the last quarterback to have the ball wins, look for Williams to outduel Michael Penix, Jr. — and we get the added insurance of the three points for the home dog. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). THE SITUATION: Clemson (4-4) has also two games in a row after their 24-17 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (7-2) has won three of their last four games after a 58-7 thrashing at home against Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight upset losses after getting upset at Miami (FL) the previous week. The Tigers did outgain the Wolfpack by +162 net yards as they held them to a mere 202 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin along with a 15-yard interception returned for a touchdown by NC State played a big role in that game. This has been the story of the Clemson season. In their four losses this season, they are outgaining their opponents by more than +300 net Yards-Per-Game but are holding themselves back with a -6 net turnover margin with ten lost fumbles in those contests. Failing to convert on five of their seven fourth-down chances in those games has not helped either. Head coach Dabo Swinney claimed earlier this week that his team would be 8-0 if not for them leading the nation in fumbles. Ranking in the bottom ten in the nation in Red Zone Scoring Percentage has not helped the cause either. But fumble luck as well as scoring in the Red Zone tends to regress over the long run. This remains a team that is outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and their +148.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark is a reliable assessment of how they should perform moving forward. Remember, this is a team that has lost twice in overtime and that only has a 1-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They outplayed and outgained Florida State by a 429 to 311 yardage margin before coaching decisions and late miscues and some Seminoles’ good fortunate combined to have the Tigers somehow give that game away in overtime. So while the critics can point to Clemson’s 7-7 record in their last 14 games, this remains a very talented group — especially on defense. The Tigers still possess an elite defense that ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 4.4 Yards-Per-Play. They rank sixth in the FBS by allowing only 267.5 total YPG — and they are 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The offense has struggled in the Red Zone under quarterback Cade Klubnik — and some of the shine is off new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who came over from TCU in the offseason. But the Tigers are still averaging 453.8 YPG at home which is generating 38.8 PPG. Running back Will Shipley is injured for this game — but that means more carries for second-year freshman Phil Mafah who is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry and +1.5 more yards after contact than Shipley. After playing their last two games on the road, Clemson returns home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 42.5-46 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Tigers have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Notre Dame goes on the road again after beating USC and the Panthers at home by 28 and 51 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home by 14 or more points. The Fighting Irish have forced five turnovers in two straight games — they have enjoyed +5 and +3 net turnover margins in their last two contest. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers as Notre Dame will remember in their upset loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over five times in their last trip on the road. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +3 or more net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two games in a row with a +3 or more net turnover margin. They lost their best receiver last week when their talented tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. That does not help a Fighting Irish team that has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against teams not allowing more than 285 YPG.                                    

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Clemson team under head coach Dabo Swinney is an underdog at home in Death Valley. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 home games getting more than three points in the Swinney era — and they are covering the point spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Swinney should have no problem getting his team up for this game since playing Notre Dame is always something special — and they will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in South Bend last season by a 35-14 score despite being a 4-point road favorite. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-1) lost their first game of the season with a 110-89 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas (4-0) is unbeaten to start the season after their 114-105 win against Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: If the financial incentives for this In-Season Tournament that begins tonight were not enough to motivate the defending champions, the Mavericks should have Denver’s full attention tonight after they played their worst game of the season on Wednesday after a Timberwolves team coming off an embarrassing loss themselves. The Nuggets only made 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort of their season. And while Minnesota made a modest 45.8% of their shots, that was still the highest shooting percentage that Denver has allowed all season. The Nuggets have been very focused early on this season — three of their four victories have been by eight or more points. They rank second in the league in Net Adjusted Efficiency. The biggest concern for this team coming into this season was the play of their bench after losing Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason. Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson have played well as the core of their second unit. Denver should play great tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by double-digits. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after winning two of their last three games. Dallas allowed the Bulls to make 47.2% of their shots which was actually the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to make 48.3% of their shots including 38.5% of their shots from behind the arc. Defense was one of the biggest questions for this team after they ranked 25th in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Kudos to this team for starting the season undefeated — and a slimmed-down Luka Doncic has been spectacular so far. Kyrie Irving has not yet played this season due to a left ankle sprain — and he is questionable to play tonight. I suspect Irving plays — but the Mavericks ranked 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after acquiring Irving at the trade deadline which is not a surprise since he is not known for his defensive prowess. The Doncic/Irving duo was not successful last year — Dallas was only 5-11 in their 16 games when they played together down the stretch as they dropped from the fourth seed in the Western Conference to the 11th seed. It will still be a work in progress for those two superstars to mesh together on the offensive end of the court. The Mavericks lost some important role players from last year as well with Christian Wood and Reggie Bullock leaving the team in free agency. Dallas is getting nice contributions from rookie center Derrick Lively, Jr. — but is he ready (and big enough) to slow down Nikola Jokic? Doncic and Irving are both liabilities on defense. Furthermore, Dallas has had an easy opening schedule with games against San Antonio, Brooklyn, the mess that is Memphis, and the Bulls. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win at home. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning four or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks are making 41.0% of their shots from behind the arc — but Denver has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams making 36% or more of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have also covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (574) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen in Game Five of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (102-76) took a 3-1 series lead with their 11-7 victory on the road last night. Arizona (94-84) looks to keep their season alive and force a Game Six back in Texas on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Even without Adolis Garcia who is out the rest of the World Series, the Rangers exploded for five runs in the second inning and another five runs in the third inning to quickly take control of Game Four. Texas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total on the road after a game where at least 17 combined runs were scored. The Rangers have not committed an error in six straight games — and they have played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games without committing an error. Texas committed only 57 errors in the regular season which is the second-fewest in the league Eovaldi gets the ball tonight after giving up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander had one bad inning where he gave up three runs with the Diamondbacks getting a couple of seeing-eye ground ball base hits before Corbin Carroll broke things open with a triple. Look for Eovaldi to bounce back with a strong effort — he has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in five starts in these playoffs. The underlying sabermetrics are very encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP from those five starts projecting an ERA of 2.72 and 2.63 moving forward. Eovaldi has plenty of big-game experience in the postseason going back to his time with the Boston Red Sox. He has a 10-1 career record in the postseason with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.10 ERA as a starter. In three starts on the road in these playoffs, he has a 2.84 ERA — and he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 13 road starts in the regular season. He faces this Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Arizona has played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing nine or more runs — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing ten or more runs in their last game. They have also played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored. The Diamondbacks have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. Five of the runs allowed last night were unearned runs coming from a Christian Walker error in a rare fielding misstep for this team that led MLB with only 56 errors in the regular season. They counter with Gallen who gave up three earned runs in five innings of work in Game One of this series. The right-hander has struggled with command in the postseason — but four of his five starts have been on the road where he had a 4.43 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 18 starts on the road in the regular season. But in his 16 starts at home in the regular season, he enjoyed a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230. While he averaged 2.42 bases-on-balls per nine innings on the road in the regular season, his command was much better at home where only walked 1.59 batters per nine innings. Arizona has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with Gallen on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. They have also played 24 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Rangers will miss Garcia’s scorching hot bat — he had a .323 batting average, a .382 on-base percentage, and a 1.108 OPS in these playoffs with eight home runs and 22 RBIs.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed 10 or more runs. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (955) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (956) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (186) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (185). THE SITUATION: North Texas (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-28 loss at Tulane as a 20-point underdog on Saturday. Memphis (5-2) has won two of their last three games after a 45-21 win at UAB as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas has outgained their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season — but three of their four losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They should be in store for another close game this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. North Texas has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Led by quarterback  Chandler Rogers, the Mean Green have an explosive offense. The junior is completing 65% of his passes and averaging 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception. The Mean Green sport a balanced offense that has rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their games while passing for 297 or more yards in five games. They have generated 475.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after averaging 475 or more YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected higher-scoring games where the Total is at 63 or higher. In their three games at home, they are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game. Memphis got outgained last week by -29 net yards despite beating UAB by 24 points — they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 124-104 upset loss at home against Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Toronto (1-0) comes off a 97-94 win against Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago was sluggish with their shooting on Wednesday as they only made 41.9% of their shots. The Bulls can struggle with their shooting — but allowing the Thunder to make 54.9% of their shots was a surprise after they finished fifth in the NBA last season in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 10 games after a loss at home by ten or more points. The Bulls lost in the Play-In Tournament to Miami after finishing the regular season with a 40-42 record — but their net point differential projected them to have 44 victories which was more in line with their 46 wins for the 2021-22 season. The organization returned their top eight players in terms of minutes played. While they will not have the services of Lonzo Ball this season as he recovers from his chronic knee injuries, the team still has a very respectable trio in Zack LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic that forms the core of the team. Chicago has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games at home when favored by up to six points. Toronto only made 40% of their shots on Wednesday — but they benefited from the Timberwolves only making 34% of their shots. But the Raptors got out-rebounded by a 62-47 margin to Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting out-rebounded by 15 or more boards in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after allowing no more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. The Raptors entered a new era in the offseason after firing head coach Nick Nurse and then not resigning point guard Fred VanVleet — two key pieces in their recent NBA championship. Dennis Schroder was signed as a free agent from the Los Angeles Lakers to run the offense — but he is a downgrade from VanVleet. This is a team that ranked 26th in the league by assisting on only 57% of their made field goals — and VanVleet was their leading assist man. Toronto also ranked 28th in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. They were just 14-27 on the road last season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after playing a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago beat the Raptors in the Play-In Tournament last season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against Toronto. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (544) minus the points versus the Toronto Raptors (543). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Seven of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (96-76) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 9-2 loss at home to the Rangers in Game Six last night. Texas (98-75) staved off elimination to force this decisive Game Seven tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston has won 17 of their last 26 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Astros have also won 31 of their last 45 games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Furthermore, they have won 6 of their last 8 playoff games when they can close out the series despite last night’s loss. Javier gets the start after posting a 1.69 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .111 in his two previous starts this postseason. The right-hander has a remarkable 1.85 ERA along with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 34 career innings in his playoff career. He has struck out 49 batters in the postseason. Javier struggled in the regular season with a 10-5 record along with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts — but he was more effective at home where he enjoyed a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 starts. But now his velocity is back up — and he is pitching as well as he has at any time in his career. The Astros have won 19 of their last 27 home games with Javier on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have won 9 straight games with Javier pitching with the total set in the 9-9.5 range. And they have won 6 straight playoff games with Javier their starting pitcher. The last five games in this series have finished Over the Total — but Texas has lost 18 of their last 30 games after playing four or more Overs in a row. The Rangers turn to Scherzer despite his giving up five runs in four innings in his previous start in his series last Wednesday. The right-hander made his first start since September 12th when he went on the injured list with a shoulder strain. He has not built his arm strength after only one rehab appearance before that outing. If this was the regular season, this would probably be his third and final rehabilitation appearance. Even if he was back to 100%, he was less effective on the road this season. While he posted a 3.09 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP in 12 regular season starts, those numbers rose to a 4.31 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 15 starts on the road. Scherzer’s teams have lost 7 of their last nine games in the playoffs when he is the starting pitcher.

FINAL TAKE: It is interesting that the road team has won all six games in this series — but I think that trend ends tonight. The reigning World Series champions will find a way to win this game tonight — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss at home by six or more runs. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (934) versus the Texas Rangers (933) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of the National League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (97-73) has won four games in a row after their 10-0 victory at home against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Arizona (89-80) has lost two games in a row to fall behind in this series by an 0-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia is playing with tons of momentum — they have won 21 of their last 28 games in October. They have also won 4 of their last 5 games after shutting out their last opponent. They have held the Diamondbacks to just three runs in this series — and they have won 21 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than three runs in two straight games. Furthermore, the Phillies have won 32 of their last 53 games on the road after winning two or more games in a row. Suarez gets the start after posting a 4-6 record along with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 22 regular season starts. The left-hander had a 5.45 ERA in his 12 starts at home — but he enjoyed a 2.75 ERA in 10 starts on the road in the regular season. Philadelphia has won 18 of their last 28 games on the road with Suarez on the mound — and they have won 10 of their last 14 road games with Suarez pitching priced in the +/- 125 range. Suarez has been dynamite in this postseason with a 1.04 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP in two starts — and he has a 1.16 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP in his seven career playoff appearances which includes five starts. He faces a slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is hitting only .226 in their last seven games with a .299 on-base percentage during that span. Arizona ranks just 12th and 15th this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks have only four base hits in each of the first two games of this series — and they have lost 25 of their last 32 games after failing to get more than five hits in two straight games. They have not scored more than four runs in four straight games — and they have lost 17 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than four runs in four straight games. The Arizona bullpen gave up six runs on Tuesday  — and they have lost 6 games in a row after their bullpen allowed six or more runs in their last game. They counter with Pfaadt who had a 3-9 record with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 regular season appearances. In his ten starts at home, he was saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314. In his two postseason starts this year, he has a 3.86 ERA — but he also has a 1.43 WHIP and a .321 opponent’s batting average in those two starts. He gave up 22 homers in the regular season at a 2.06 home runs per nine innings rate which is very concerning against this Phillies team bashing home runs right now.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 9 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by eight or more runs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road by ten or more runs. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer in Game Three of the American League Championship Series. THE SITUATION: Houston (93-75) finds themselves trailing by an 0-2 deficit in the ALCS after a 5-4 loss at home to the Rangers on Monday. Texas (97-72) has won seven games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a loss by one run — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. After losing Game One by a 2-0 score, the Astros have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. Houston has not scored more than four runs in their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than four runs in three straight games. The Astros are only hitting .173 in their last three games — but they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting above .200 in their last three contests. Javier gets the start after pitching five scoreless innings at Minnesota in his last start last Tuesday in the ALDS. The right-hander’s velocity was up in that start — but he also walked five batters in that effort. Javier was solid at home this year where he had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 13 regular season starts — but those numbers rose to a 5.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 18 starts on the road. Houston has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Javier on the mound as the money-line underdog. He faces a Rangers lineup that ranks second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching. Texas is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .274 batting average, a .346 on-base percentage, and a .843 OPS. The Rangers have played 44 of their last 68 home games Over the Total when priced as a money-line favorite from -125 to -175. They have played 37 of their last 61 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have played 36 of their last 58 home games Over the Total against fellow AL West rivals. And while Texas has not allowed more than four runs in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 29 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in three or more games in a row. They counter with Scherzer who is making his first start in 36 games after suffering a muscle strain in his right shoulder. Only three pitchers have taken the mound in the playoffs with a longer duration between starts in the history of MLB. Two of those circumstances took place this century — and those two starters have up four and three runs apiece while combining for a 5.63 ERA. Scherzer threw 68 pitches in his lone simulated game. If this was the regular season, the 39-year-old would probably throw two more simulated games to build up his strength and endurance. Even if he is effective tonight, he is not likely to pitch deep into the game. By the way, Scherzer’s strikeout rate is his lowest since 2013 while his walk rate is his highest since 2013. In his 12 career starts in a League Championship Series, 10 of those games finished Over the Total. His teams have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total this season when he is on the mound priced as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. He faces an Astros team that ranks fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they led MLB in those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total when playing with revenge for a loss by one run. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (901) and the Texas Rangers (902) listing both starting pitchers Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). THE SITUATION: Air Force (5-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 49-10 thrashing of San Diego State as a 10.5-point favorite on September 30th. Wyoming (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-19 upset victory against Fresno State as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: After upsetting the undefeated Bulldogs last week despite only outgaining them by five net yards, look for the Cowboys to experience a big letdown this week. We were on this Wyoming team last week — but they have been fortunate to beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State in wild endings despite getting outgained in yardage in both games. The Cowboys are only outscoring their opponents by +2.0 net Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -49.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after winning three of their last four games including a failure to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time this season after playing five of their first six games at War Memorial in Laramie where they enjoy an altitude edge. They may be without their top running back Harrison Waylee for this contest after he left last week’s game with a lower-body injury. While the Cowboys played Texas tough in their previous road game, this is a bad matchup for them against the Air Force spread triple option. Wyoming gave up more than 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry against New Mexico and Appalachian State generated 217 rushing yards against them. They also rank 91st in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed that measures drives of at least ten plays and 50 yards that take at least three minutes off the clock. This Air Force offense is dominant — they rank second in the nation in Points-Per-Drive and they lead the nation in Finishing Drives. Their rushing attack ranks seventh in Success Rate fueled by an experienced offensive line that ranks sixth in the FBS in Line Yards. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory against a conference foe. They have rushed for at least 287 yards in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. The Air Force defense has also been outstanding as they have held their five opponents to just 12.2 PPG — and they rank sixth in the nation by allowing only 4.27 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons’ defense ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Quality Drive Allowed and 18th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Laramie against Wyoming by a 17-14 score as a 16.5-point favorite on September 16th last season. Laying double-digits with a methodical service academy can be dangerous — but this Falcons team has won all five of their games by double-digits with four of those victories by 18 or more points. They have been held below 39 points only once this season while scoring 39, 45, and 49 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month is with the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt in Game Three of their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (100-64) looks to stave off elimination after falling behind 0-2 in this best-of-five series in a 4-2 loss at home to the Diamondbacks on Monday. Arizona (88-78) returns home on a four-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles should bounce back with a strong effort tonight as they have won 46 of their last 64 games after losing their last contest — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games after a loss to an NL West rival. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Dodgers have lost four of their last six games, they have then won 16 of their last 23 games after losing four or five of their last six games. They have also won 15 of their last 23 games after an off day. They go back on the road where they have won 22 of their last 32 road games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They have won 45 of their last 69 games when listed as a money-line favorite priced up to -150. They turn to Lynn tonight who has a 13-11 record along with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 32 starts. While the right-hander has been inconsistent this season with some outstanding efforts tempered by several clunkers, the deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be seeing better results. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.33 and 4.50 moving forward. He has been more effective since being traded over to the Dodgers from the Chicago White Sox — he has a 3.38 ERA in his last four starts this season while averaging six innings per appearance. He faces a Diamondbacks team that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB since July in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they rank 25th and 23rd in those categories since September 1st. Arizona is only scoring 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, a .317 on-base percentage, and a .703 OPS during that span. The Diamondbacks have not given up more than two runs in three straight games — but they have lost 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in three straight games. They have also lost 24 of their last 39 games after a win by two runs or less. Furthermore, while Arizona has been a money-line underdog of +145 and +175 in the first two games in this series, they have then lost 16 of their last 25 games after two straight upset wins against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. They counter with Pfaadt who has a 3-9 record along with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 19 appearances in the regular season. In his start in Game One of the Wildcard round against Miami, he gave up three runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 6.46 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .314 in ten starts as opposed to his 5.04 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in nine appearances on the road. Arizona has lost 5 of their 7 games with Pfaadt pitching against an NL West rival. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks 2nd and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 2nd in both those categories since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has won 18 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games when motivated with double revenge with two straight losses to their opponent. The Dodgers had won five games in a row against Arizona before this series began. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (937) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (938) listing both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Brandon Pfaadt. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:03 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer in Game Three of their American League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Texas (94-72) has won four straight games after their 11-8 victory on the road against the Orioles on Sunday. Baltimore (101-63) has lost three games in a row as they look to stave off elimination tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas should build off their momentum as they have won 57 of their 93 games after a victory this season including winning 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 24 of their last 33 games after scoring nine or more runs in their last game. And in their last 17 games after a game where 17 or more combined runs were scored, they have won 12 of those contests. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 contests. Eovaldi gets the start after putting up a 12-5 record in 25 regular season starts along with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He was more effective at home where he had a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .221 in 12 starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. His teams have won 23 of their last 34 games when he is pitching at home priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Baltimore has lost 50 of their last 73 games after losing three or more games in a row. They have also lost 15 of their last 22 games after a game where both teams scored and allowed eight or more runs. And in their last 34 games when 17 or more combined runs were scored, the Orioles have lost 25 of those games. They have also lost 9 of their last 11 games in October. They counter with Kremer who had a 13-5 record in 32 starts in the regular season with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The deeper sabermetrics are not bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.44 and 4.34 moving forward. While he had a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home, those numbers rose to a 1.39 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 13 starts. Baltimore has lost 8 of their last 13 road games with Kremer on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers rank second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching — and they are third in the league in those categories since the beginning of September. 25* MLB Divisional Series Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dean Kremer. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen in Game Two in their National League Divisional Series. THE SITUATION: Arizona (87-78) has won three games after taking the opening game of this best-of-five series with their 11-2 victory on Saturday. Los Angeles (100-63) has lost two of their last three games to fall behind 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 37 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a fellow NL West rival priced as a money-line favorite at -150 or higher. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 34 of their last 51 games Over the Total after allowing eight or more runs — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total after allowing nine or more runs in their last contest. The Dodgers scratched out only four base hits yesterday — but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not getting more than four hits in their last game. They are only hitting .197 in their last three games — but they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not hitting higher than .200 in their last three contests. Miller gets the start tonight with his 11-4 record along with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts. The rookie sees his ERA rise to a 4.55 mark in his 10 starts at home as opposed to his 3.09 ERA in 12 starts on the road. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Miller on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Dodgers have also played 41 of their last 66 games Over the Total when priced as the money-line favorite from -125 to -175. Arizona has played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after an off day. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when on the road. The Diamondbacks have scored 22 combined runs in their last three games while plating at least five runs in each of those contests. They counter with Gallen who has a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230 — but in his 18 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245. In his last seven starts in the regular season, the right-hander had a 4.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Arizona has played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with Gallen on the mound priced as a money-line underdog priced from +125 to +175 range. He faces a Dodgers team that ranks fourth in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitching.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the playoff series. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with  Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (919) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (920) listing both starting pitchers Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). THE SITUATION:  Wyoming (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-26 win against New Mexico as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-9 win against Nevada as a 25.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s lone this season was at Texas where they were tied with the Longhorns in the fourth quarter before they pulled away late for a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Cowboys returned home where they beat Appalachian State and then the Lobos last week. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games at home. The question I had in my preseason deep dive for this team was whether this was the year that the Cowboys took the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title. Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. The Cowboys conclude their three-game home stand tonight at War Memorial Stadium where they are very tough to beat. Wyoming has a 41-21 straight-up record at home in the last ten seasons after their 4-0 start this year which includes that win against Appalachian State as well as an upset win against Texas Tech in overtime. They are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 23.8 PPG. They have a nice weapon developing at running back in junior Harrison Waylee. In his three games since taking the field this season, the Northern Illinois transfer has rushed for 457 yards with an 8.6 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Bohl’s team has also forced at least one turnover in each of their games — and they have won the turnover battle in their last two contests. Wyoming has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in two straight games. After two straight games at home, Fresno State goes back on the road for the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bulldogs generated 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Wolf Pack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. They averaged 7.66 YPP in their previous game against Kent State as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last two games. Fresno State is considered the best Group of Five team by many observers after outgaining their last three opponents by +197 net Yards-Per-Game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last three opponents by +125 or more YPG. The main question I had for the Bulldogs in the offseason was how close could they come to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida via the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. So far so good. Keene has won the quarterback job and ranks 11th in the nation with 1474 passing yards. The Bulldogs have victories against two Power Five conference programs in Purdue and Arizona State — but both of those teams are rebuilding under first-year head coaches. This game is just the third time this season that Fresno State is not favored by 25 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown has definitely been on the mind of Bohl after his team has been shut out in two straight years against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 282.0 total YPG this year — but the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents not allowing more than 280 YPG. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:38 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios in Game Two in this American League Wildcard series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (88-75) took the opening game of this best-of-three series with a 3-1 victory on Tuesday. Toronto (89-74) has lost five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota is a better team than their record suggests. They outscored their opponents in the regular season by +119 runs — a +0.7 net run differential — which typically translates into 93 wins on a 162-game schedule. They had a 19-27 record in games decided by one run which suggests where they had some bad breaks. But they have now won 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 4 straight games after not scoring more than three runs in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last contest. The Twins have now won 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have won 45 of their last 68 home games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. Gray gets the ball this afternoon with his 8-8 record along with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 32 starts. In his last seven starts this season, the right-hander has a 1.54 ERA along with a 0.97 WHIP. In his four career starts in the postseason, Gray has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Minnesota has won 21 of their last 33 home games with Gray on the hill when priced in the +/- 125 range. He faces a Blue Jays team that has lost 14 of their last 30 games against American League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.40 or lower. Toronto has now lost 14 of their last 22 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. They counter with Berrios who has a 11-12 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.08 and 4.01 moving forward. Perhaps the Regression Gods have already made their presence felt for the veteran right-hander since he has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts — and he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last nine starts this season. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 in 15 starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.97 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .243 in his 17 starts on the road. Berrios’ teams have lost 21 of their last 29 games when he is on the mound against a team that outscores their opponents by +0.5 or more Runs-Per-Game. He faces a Minnesota team that ranks third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank third and second in those respective metrics since July 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins got a monkey off their backs yesterday by snapping their 18-game losing streak in the postseason. Now they are one win away from advancing to the American League Divisional Series — and they are playing a Blue Jays team with their own shaken psyche issues as they have now lost 5 of their last 6 games in the Wildcard round of the American League playoffs. 25* MLB Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (90-72) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 9-1 victory at New York against the Mets on Sunday. Miami (84-77) had their three-game winning streak end in a 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The defending National League champions have plenty of postseason experience — and they have won 15 of their last 23 games in October.  They have won 4 straight openers in a new playoff series. They have also won 18 of their last 28 games after losing three of their last four contests. As the top wildcard team in the National League, they earned the right to host his best-of-three series — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 39 home games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The money-line price on the Phillies has dropped below my -150 price threshold to endorse them tonight — and they have won 21 of their last 32 home games when priced up to -150. Wheeler gets the ball tonight with a 13-6 record this season along with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 32 starts. In his six career starts in the postseason, the veteran right-hander has a 2.78 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. Philadelphia has won 11 of their last 14 home games with Wheeler their starting pitcher with the Total set from 7-7.5. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 23rd and 25th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 24th in both those categories since July. Miami has lost 8 of their last 12 games after getting shut out in their last game — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than three combined runs were scored. Furthermore, the Marlins have lost 44 of their last 65 games after an off day. They counter with Luzardo who has a 10-9 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has pitched only three innings in the postseason in his career. He did his best work at home this year where he had a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .216 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 4.48 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .276 in 12 starts on the road. Miami has lost 15 of their last 21 road games with Luzardo on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces this Phillies lineup that ranks 5th and 4th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they have risen to 2nd and 3rd in the league since July in those categories.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will motivated to avenge a 5-4 loss at home to the Marlins as a -160 money-line favorite on September 10th — and they have won 16 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. 25* MLB NL East Game of the Year with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (946) versus the Miami Marlins (945) listing both starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-4) remained winless this season after their 35-24 loss at Texas State as a 17-point underdog last Saturday. Fresno State (4-0) is unbeaten this year after their 53-10 win against Kent State as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolf Pack have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. My question before the season started on my deep dive on this team was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. The numbers have not improved just yet — but they have played two of the most explosive offenses in the nation in USC and Kansas. After getting outgained by 178 yards two weeks ago in their loss 31-24 loss at home to the Jayhawks, they got outgained by 220 yards last week to the Bearcats. Nevada has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in two straight games. The Wolf Pack have allowed 31 or more points in all four of their games — but they have played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. On the other side of the ball, Nevada ranks 125th in the nation by scoring only 17 PPG. Fresno State has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs have also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their four games, they have then played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The question I had for this team before the season was whether the Bulldogs could come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. Keene has taken the starting job — and he is completing 67.5% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But he has also been sacked 11 times despite the experience on the offensive line. The Bulldogs generated 7.66 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP. After allowing 66 combined points in their first two games, Fresno State had given up a mere 10 points in their last two contests. The Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They should continue to play well on that side of the ball with seven starters back from the tune that ranked 14th in the nation by allowing only 19.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 25* College Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-3) has lost three games in a row after their 45-28 loss at home to Kentucky as a 13-point underdog last Saturday. Missouri (4-0) is unbeaten this season after their 34-27 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt was only outgained by 37 net yards to the Wildcats — but they surrendered two defensive touchdowns from interceptions that made the difference in the game. This Commodores team is actually outscoring and outgaining their opponents in yardage — but they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. Additionally, the Commodores have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have surrendered at least 36 points in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing 31 or more points in three straight games. The biggest question I had with this team in my preseason deep dive was whether teaching and coaching player development could overcome the hits they keep taking in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team has continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Missouri is unbeaten — but three of their four victories have been by seven points or less. They had the fewest Big Plays in the nation after their first two games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee — and they beat the Blue Raiders by only four points despite being a three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played two straight Overs, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they would continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. After two subpar games, junior quarterback Brady Cook has had two good games in a row — but now this will be Missouri’s first true road game in a hostile environment this season. The Tigers also have a showdown against LSU on deck next week — so the look-ahead issue could be a factor. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores will be looking to avenge a narrow 17-14 loss at Missouri last October — and Lea led his team to scrappy upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Missouri had four losses against SEC competition by 18 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 10.5-21 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Texas (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners. Seattle (86-73) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The stakes remain urgent for both teams — the Rangers are two games ahead of Houston for first place in the AL West while the Mariners are one game behind those Astros for the final American League wildcard spot. There are still scenarios where both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after the regular season concludes this weekend. Texas managed only three base hits last night — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they did not have more than four hits. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two games in a row. On the road, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 12-4 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.95 moving forward. He is struggling this month in his five starts with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs after a game that finished Under the Total — and the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after scoring no more than three runs in their last game. The Mariners have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while Seattle has not scored more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Over the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Woo who has a 4-5 record along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts. In his four starts this month, the rookie right-hander has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks 10th and 8th this season in weighted On-Base Created and weighted Runs Created this season — and they rank 8th and 6th in those metrics since August 1st and 5th and 4th in those categories this month. Despite scoring at least five runs in six of their last nine games, Texas is hitting only .218 in their last five games — but they have played 16 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in September — and the Mariners have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 with an 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has the same record after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay comes into this game with momentum after their win against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory in their last game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And with that game finishing Under the Total, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The main question I had about this team coming into the season was whether they might respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love demonstrated his poise by leading an 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter last week to steal that game against New Orleans. He has been a threat with his legs — he has rushed for 74 yards this season on 14 carries with a crucial touchdown last week. Those numbers are similar to Josh Allen’s 89 rushing yards on 12 carries and Deshaun Watson’s 83 yards on 15 carriers with both mobile QBs also having one touchdown. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. Green Bay stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the points spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. LaFleur expects to get running back Aaron Jones back for this game which should help to get their running game going after not rushing for more than 95 yards in a game yet this season. The Packers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Green Bay is still dealing with some other injuries with left tackle David Bahktiari, left guard Elgton Jenkins, and linebacker De’Vondae Campbell out. They have developed some nice depth on their offensive line with players like Zach Tom able to ease into the starting left tackle position after giving up only one sack in 489 snaps last season. The Lions are still the more banged-up team — starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Their defense is without defensive linemen James Houston and Josh Paschal along with cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Detroit held the Falcons to just 183 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their last game. And while the Lions have not allowed more than 95 rushing yards this season after holding Atlanta to 44 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. The hype surrounding this team is enormous right now with them now having won 10 of their last 13 games — but remember that their most important contest during that stretch was in Week 15 last season when a victory on the road against Carolina would have given them the upper hand in controlling their playoff destiny. But they surrendered 570 total yards to the Panthers in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. Admittedly, Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when favored by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers certainly had this game circled after the Lions spoiled their opportunity to make the playoffs on the last Sunday night game of the regular season at Lambeau Field. Detroit upset them in both games last season — but Goff only completed 37 of his 60 passes (61.7%) for 361 yards in both games with the Lions averaging just 287.5 total YPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (100-56) has won three of their last four games after their 8-5 victory at Washington on Sunday. Chicago (82-74) is on a three-game winning streak after a 4-3 win at home against Colorado on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Atlanta has nothing to play for this week having clinched the top seed in the National League playoffs — but they should be motivated to bring their A-Game against a Cubs team that has beaten them twice in a row. We need to be careful this week about starting lineups with it being the final week of the regular season — and Ronald Acuna and company are confirmed to be on the lineup card tonight. The Braves have won 69 of their last 111 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 23 of their last 35 games at home with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Elder gets the ball tonight with his 12-4 record along with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander has allowed four earned runs in two straight starts — so he will want to right his ship tonight with his next start likely to be in the postseason. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.26 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.05 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s average of .256 in 14 starts on the road. Atlanta has won 12 of their 16 home games this season with Elder on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that ranks 21st in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs on the road against right-handed pitchers. Cody Bellinger has carried them this summer — but he is currently mired in a 5 of 32 slump with a .156 batting average in his last nine games. Chicago currently is tied with Arizona for the second and third spots in the NL wildcard race — but the pressure remains on them being only one game ahead of Miami who is still very much in contention. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 games after scoring four runs or less in their last game. They have also lost 5 straight games on the road — and they have also lost 10 of their last 13 games on the road against NL East rivals. They counter with Steele who has a 16-5 record with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.63 and 3.35 moving forward. Perhaps the pressure of reaching the postseason or  NL Cy Young Award possibilities have gotten into the left-hander’s head as he has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts for a 12.00 ERA along with a 1.89 WHIP. He faces a Braves team that has won 22 of their last 21 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta ranks fourth and fifth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed pitching. The Braves lead MLB in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage — and they should be motivated to maintain their pace to break an MLB record for home runs in a single season.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta got upset in two straight games as the road favorite at Wrigley Field in the last two meetings between these teams on August 5th and 6th — but the Braves have won 10 of their last 13 opportunities for double-revenge from upset losses as a road favorite. 25* MLB Tuesday TBS-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (958) versus the Chicago Cubs (957) listing both starting pitchers Bryce Elder and Justin Steele. Best of luck for us — Frank.