At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season where they lost to New Orleans by a 21-0 score in the NFC Wildcard playoffs. Los Angeles (0-0) was 10-6 last season and lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 32-18 loss to Green Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Matthew Stafford is getting almost all the attention for the Rams this season after they acquired the veteran quarterback in the offseason in a blockbuster trade with Detroit. But it is the Los Angeles defense that deserves more attention. Led by defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Rams possess one of the best defenses in the league once again after leading the NFL by allowing only 18.5 PPG and 281.9 total YPG. The 4.6 Yards-Per-Play they held their opponents to last year was +0.33 YPP better than the second-best defensive team. Opponents scored on just 27.9% of their drives last year — the best mark in the league. Now this group goes against an Andy Dalton-led Bears’ offense — more on that below. Los Angeles has played 14 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total — including seven straight at home when favored to close out last season. The Rams have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total when the favorite. And in their last 16 games in the first half of the season, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. I like Stafford at quarterback — but I am in the “pump the brakes” crowd for those who think he will the league’s MVP while leading the Rams to the Super Bowl. The days of head coach Sean McVay scheming against eight defenders in the box to dare Jared Goff to throw are long gone. And the Rams took a major hit with the season-ending injury to Cam Akers. Darrell Henderson gets the initial starting job at running back — but I am not as high on the former Memphis all-purpose back because all indications are that the Rams do not have confidence in him. They rarely allowed him to be the lead back in his first two seasons in the league despite the declining physical skills of Todd Gurley and an unsettled backfield last season. They signed Sony Michel last month for a reason — but he was the odd man out in New England who is seeing his skills decline as well. Stafford plays against an underrated defense in this Bears unit that is quite familiar with his tendencies. Chicago was just 11th in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 344.9 total YPG — but they faced the most difficult schedule in terms of offensive efficiency last year. They have elite players in their back seven in free safety Eddie Jackson and linebacker Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. The issue is far — and for how long — will Dalton lead this offense that averaged only 23.3 PPG last season. Rookie Justin Fields is probably not the starting quarterback yet because an opening test against Donald and Ramsey is frightening. Chicago has played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total — and they have played 35 of their last 54 road games Under the Total when getting 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Matt Nagy will not try to engage in a shootout with McVay and Stafford. Chicago is going to run the football — they rushed for at least 108 yards in each of their last six games last season after not cracking 100 yards in from Week Four to Week Ten. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) comes off a 7-9 campaign which was still good enough to win the NFC East before giving Tampa Bay a competitive contest in a 31-23 loss in an NFC Wildcard playoff matchup last January. Los Angeles (0-0) won their last four games of the season to conclude a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers opened as a small favorite in this game before the line moved to see Washington a small favorite as of this writing. I do not like this spot for Los Angeles. It is always an extra challenge for west coast teams to travel east to play in a 1 PM ET game with the body clocks thinking it is 10 AM. The Chargers sacked head coach Anthony Lynn for not winning enough close games in his four-year tenure — despite his team winning three games by just three points in their closing four-game winning streak. 38-year-old Brandon Staley is the new head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams last season. First-year head coaches have a spotty record in their opening games in the league — they are 1-12-1 straight-up, an ominous number given the point spread in this contest. I am more optimistic long-term about this team than I am for this contest. The defense is going to take a step back given a system change and a loss of talent. Melvin Ingram and Denzel Perryman must be replaced in the front seven and the secondary replaces Casey Hayward and Rayshawn Jenkins. The Chargers are banking on injured players like Joey Bosa and Derwin James to immediately return to form. But Staley’s defensive system is much different than previous defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schemes. Staley’s success with the Rams came from an aggressive man defense with two high safeties — but we will see if having Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage was essential for that system to thrive. The run defense ranked 26th in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metric — and it might get worse this season with the system change. Staley embraced the new-school philosophy of Sean McVay to not play starters in the preseason games — so the best reps his team got to implement his packages were in joint practices. The offensive line breaks in four new starters which is a terrifying thought against this Washington defensive line. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert was great in his rookie campaign — but he is not likely to make a big leap this season since his first year was so good. The analytics suggest his next growth spurt in development will occur in his third season. The data also indicates that he is likely to see regression in how he handles pass-rush pressure and in third-down efficiency. Top running back Austin Ekeler is questionable to play with a hamstring. Staley inherits a team that is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games in September. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Washington may still be underappreciated for their losing record last year despite overcoming a 1-5 start. They gave the Buccaneers one of the most difficult games in their Super Bowl run. They should be even better in the second year of the Ron Rivera regime. The Football Team’s defense is ferocious with four former first-round draft picks anchoring the front four. With Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat, coordinator Jack Del Rio can generate a pass rush without blitzing — allowing him to have more players in pass coverage. Washington rushed only four defenders 68% of the time last season — a simple but devastating formula for success if it still pressures the opposing QB. The Football Team allowed only 1.69 points per drive last season — the third-lowest mark in the league. The unit added linebacker Jamin Davis in the first round of the NFL draft and cornerback William Jackson from Cincinnati who possesses elite cover skills. The defense did not allow more than 20 points in their final seven regular-season games. On offense, I like the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The veteran has a reputation for being loose with the football — but he has usually played for bad teams. This is the best defense the former Harvard quarterback has played with. He will operate a sophisticated offensive under coordinator Scott Turner that emphasized getting rid of the football quickly into the hands of speedy playmakers. There is depth on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Football Team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in expected close games listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (1-0) comes off a 16-10 win against Northern Iowa as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (1-0) smothered Indiana last week by a 34-6 score as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Money is pouring in on the Hawkeyes after Iowa State did not look particularly impressive last week against an FCS program. The close score did not bother me at all. The Cyclones were slowed down by a -2 net turnover margin. It is not uncommon for the Panthers to play Iowa and Iowa State tough when they get their opportunities to play the two biggest schools in the state. Additionally, head coach Matt Campbell tends to see his teams start slow in September — he saves many of his best schemes for Big 12 play. But after his team reached the Big 12 Championship Game last year, the Cyclones are a legitimate playoff contender — so I expect Campbell to unleash their “A-Game” for this nationally televised showdown. Campbell has 20 starters back from his team that finished 9-3 last season after beating Oregon, 34-17, in the Fiesta Bowl — and they had an 8-1 mark in the Big 12. They outgained Big 12 opponents by +112 net Yards-Per-Game. Iowa State should play very well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. The Cyclones debunk the stereotype that Big 12 teams do not play defense as they ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.4 total YPG. They have an underrated defensive coordinator in Jon Heacock — and he is an expert at making adjustments. Iowa State only allowed 16 combined points in the second half of their last five games. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last game. The offense has all 11 starters back from a unit that scored 32.9 PPG last year — the second-highest mark in school history. The Cyclones scored at least 30 points eight times. Brock Purdy is a senior three-year starter who was the first-team All-Big 12 quarterback last season. Breece Hall is a returning All-American running back who averaged 146 yards from scrimmage per game. Charlie Kolar is a returning All-American tight end. the offensive line returns all five starters from a unit that was one of the 11 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s best offensive line — and they get back their best offensive lineman in guard Trevor Downing who was injured last year. This team is loaded - and there is NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Campbell has led his team to nine victories against ranked opponents since 2017 — tied for the third-most in the nation. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa has won seven straight games going back to last season when they rallied from an 0-2 start. Fourteen starters are back — but they lost some critical pieces on their defense. Defensive tackle Daviyon Dixon, defensive end Chauncey Golston, and linebacker Nick Niemann all moved on to the NFL. The Hawkeyes lack elite talent so these losses hurt. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s program is consistent because of their player development that gets the most out of their recruits — but the Hawkeyes took a big hit when he dismissed their outstanding strength and conditioning coach Chris Doyle for his history of making racist comments. Ferentz looked the other way for years — and there is a reason that Urban Meyer hired him for the same position with Jacksonville before finally relenting to the outside pressure. Iowa develops a great defense because of their physical development — it will be difficult to simply mimic his practices. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras improved as the season went on last year — but he only completed 59% of his passes while averaging 176 passing YPG during their six-game winning streak. Petras completed only 13 of 27 passes for 145 yards last week against the Indiana defense with his accuracy issues remaining a problem. Iowa State has a definitive edge at quarterback. The Hawkeyes will want to run the football with junior All-Big Ten honoree Tyler Goodson — but their offensive line is a question with three new starters including both tackles. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a huge game for Iowa State who has lost their last five rivalry games against Iowa. This group did not get the opportunity to avenge an 18-17 loss to Iowa in Iowa City two years ago. Campbell has not coached his team to a victory against the Hawkeyes in four tries. The home team has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Iowa State has the talent and motivation edge — they should put up too many points for this Iowa team to keep up. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (917) versus the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Lynch and Griffin Jax. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (63-77) has won three of their last five games after their 6-0 win at Baltimore yesterday. Minnesota (62-78) had their four-game winning streak snapped yesterday in a 4-1 loss at Cleveland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Kansas City has been playing better baseball as of late — and they have won 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Royals have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Kansas City has pulled offsets in 6 of their last 8 games when an underdog — and they have won 4 of their last 5 road games as a money-line underdog. The Royals have also won 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new series. They give the ball to Lynch who has a 4-4 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 11 starts this season. After a slow start to the season, Lynch had rattled off seven straight starts where he posted a 2.23 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. But Lynch was hit hard in his last outing against the Chicago White Sox where he gave up six runs in 2 2/3 innings last Saturday. The left-hander has only pitched 51 innings this season so I do not he is tiring at this point of the year. Look for Lynch to redeem himself with a strong outing tonight. The Royals have won 6 of their 8 games in the second half of the season with Lynch making the start. Lynch’s ERA drops to a 3.47 mark in his five starts on the road — and Kansas City has won 3 of their 4 games with him pitching as a money-line underdog. He should pitch well against this Twins team that is scoring 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .234 Batting Average, .293 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .703. Minnesota has lost 16 of their last 21 home games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 home games against left-handed starters. The Twins have not scored more than three runs in their last three games — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than three runs in their last three games. And while Minnesota has not allowed more than four runs in their last three games, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 games after not giving up more than four runs in three straight games. Additionally, the Twins have lost 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with losing records. They counter with Jax who has a 3-3 record with a 6.79 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The right-hander has struggled all season but it has been worse as of late. In his six starts since the start of August, Jax has a 7.10 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .264 Batting Average, .318 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 752 (significantly better than their 4.2 scoring average, .244 Batting Average, .299 On-Base Percentage, and .683 OPS for the season). The Royals have won 11 of their last 15 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB American League Central Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (917) versus the Minnesota Twins (918) listing both starting pitchers Daniel Lynch and Griffin Jax. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes of a 6-10 campaign last season. Tampa Bay (0-0) won their final eight games last season culminating in their 31-23 win over Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys get Dak Prescott back on the field to begin the regular season after he missed the final eleven games of the year last year after he fractured his right ankle. Prescott had a shoulder issue in the preseason that kept him from playing in the preseason, but the reports are that he has looked good in practice this week after resting his arm for the last few weeks. Prescott was on a record-setting pace in generating passing yards last year before the injury — he had passed for 1856 yards in five games. Dallas was scoring over 33 Points-Per-Game and generating more than 490 Yards-Per-Game in Prescott’s five games before his season-ending injury. He might have the best wide receiver corps in the NFL with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cee Dee Lamb who may be on the verge of a breakout season. Prescott will be passing against a Buccaneers’ secondary that will be without starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Tampa Bay defense was great in the playoffs last year — but pass defense was their biggest vulnerability. They ranked 21st in the NFL by allowing 244.6 passing YPG. Dallas will likely be without their star right guard Zack Martin who is in COVID quarantine — but right tackle La’el Collins is expected to play after dealing with a stinger injury. Conner McGovern is a quality backup who will take Martin’s spot if he tests positive on game day. Martin’s absence hurts — but the loss takes more away from the run game than the passing attack. The Cowboys will likely be relying on their passing game given the state of the defense that first-year defensive coordinator Dan Quinn inherited. They allowed 29.6 PPG last season. Dallas has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when the Total set in at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in the opening month of the season, Dallas has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season Over the Total. And in their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC — and Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total against conference opponents. The Buccaneers should score at least 30 points and the Cowboys should score at least 20 points playing catchup trying to stay within single digits. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (72-64) returns home after a seven-game road trip that ended with a 9-2 win at Colorado on Sunday. Washington (57-80) has won two of their last three games after a 4-3 victory against the New York Mets yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 5 in a row after an off-day. And while they lost five of their seven games on their road trip, they have then won 22 of their last 32 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Atlanta returns home where they have won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Braves have also won 21 of their last 27 games when favored — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Fried who has an 11-7 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander started slow this season — but he has been outstanding as of late. In his last seven starts, Fried has a 1.76 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Fried has been a bit more effective at home where he owns a 3.11 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in 11 starts as compared to his 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .259. In ten starts at night, Fried has a 3.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216. The Braves have won 35 of their last 50 games with Fried pitching under the lights. They have also won 20 of their last 26 games in the second half of the season with Fried on the mound. He faces a Nationals team that has lost 9 of their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Washington has lost 4 straight games after a win. This team has lost 42 of their last 59 games in a lost season where they sold Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the trade deadline. They go back on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 26 games — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record. The Nationals have also lost 23 of their last 28 games against NL East rivals. They counter with Espino who has a 4-4 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 30 appearances which includes 14 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.50 moving forward. He has a 3.79 ERA in his 54 2/3 innings at home — but his ERA rises to a 4.60 mark in his 31 1/3 innings on the road. And since August, the right-hander has been saddled with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings. The Nationals have lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog with Espino pitching. Washington has lost four in a row against the Braves after getting swept at home in their last encounter on the weekend ending on August 15th. The Nationals have lost 9 of their last 10 games when playing an opponent that has beaten them at least four times in a row — and they have lost 14 of their last 17 games when attempting to avenge two straight losses to their opponent at home.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their 22 victories when priced at -155 or higher this season— and they have won 13 of these last 16 situations as they started playing better this summer. Washington has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 20 of their last 26 games when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — including 7 of these last 8 situations. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (954) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (953) listing both starting pitchers Max Fried and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (967) listing both starting pitchers Luis Patino and Griffin Jax. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (86-50) has won two straight games after their 11-4 victory at home against the Twins yesterday. Minnesota (58-77) has lost four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay should keep rolling this afternoon having won 15 of their last 18 — and when they win, they usually do so by more than one run (detailed in the Final Take). The Rays have won 51 of their last 66 games after a win — and they have won 44 of their last 61 games after a victory by more than one run. Tampa Bay has also won 32 of their last 42 games after a win by four or more runs. The Rays have not allowed more than four runs in four straight games — and they have won 27 of their last 39 games after not allowing an opponent to score more than four runs in three straight games. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 38 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 12 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. They give the ball to Patino who has a 4-3 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 11 starts and 13 appearances overall. The right-hander has stepped up as of late in his last two starts against top-level teams in the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox. Patino allowed only three earned runs in those starts — he sported a 2.31 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in those 11 2/3 innings. Patino has a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 31 1/3 innings. The Rays have won 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set from 8.5-10 with Patino on the hill. He should thrive against this Twins team that is scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .198 Batting Average, .258 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .333 over that span. Minnesota has not scored more than four runs in six straight games — and they have then lost 10 of their last 11 games on the road after not scoring more than four runs in at least four games. The Twins have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They counter with Jax who has a 3-3 record with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP this season. He struggles on the road with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 28 innings. He was saddled with a 7.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in five starts last month. Now he faces this Rays team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-game in their last seven games with a .806 OPS.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 19 of their 28 victories this season when they were priced at -155 or higher — and after a middling 8-9 start in those situations, they have covered the last 11 times in those circumstances. Minnesota has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 12 of their 13 losses this season priced at +145 or higher — including not covering in 9 straight. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Tampa Bay Rays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (967) listing both starting pitchers Luis Patino and Griffin Jax. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 7-2 last season with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan State (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 2-5.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, bettors appear to be undervaluing the program that head coach Pat Fitzgerald has built in Evanston. In his sixteenth year with the program, Fitzgerald led a Wildcats team to finish in the top 25 for the fourth time since 2015 last year after playing for the Big Ten Championship where they lost to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. Now this program is laying only a field goal to a rebuilding Michigan State team? Fitzgerald can make the argument that he has assembled a coaching staff that gets the most out of their talent in the conference (and the nation?). And this new era of the transfer portal helps a program like Northwestern that cannot hang with the blue bloods in attracting blue-chippers — but now becomes attractive for the talent who needs the spotlight with a starting assignment with a coaching staff that just sent saw two players drafted in the first round in the NFL draft. The Wildcats’ defense has always been fundamentally sound under Fitzgerald — and they were 5th in the nation last year by allowing only 15.9 PPG. This year’s defense is as athletic as any of the units in the Fitzgerald tenure — and the defensive line may be the best yet in his sixteen years. They bring back defensive end Samdup Miller who opted out last year. Safety Brandon Joseph is an All-American — and they have a breakout star in cornerback Cameron Mitchell. A Northwestern program may have been in a better position to navigate COVID-ball last year — but a full offseason can only help a program that thrives when they can coach up their players. Fitzgerald brought in former South Carolina Ryan Hilinski to compete for the starting QB job. The fact that fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson has been named the starting QB suggests to me that the veteran has earned the spot. Johnson is a former five-star recruit that transferred to the program from Clemson — and while he has yet to achieve his vast potential, he has now been under Fitzgerald’s mentorship for three years (including a pandemic). This is a team that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they are a dominant 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play under Fitzgerald. I am optimistic about what Michigan State can do under second-year head coach Mel Tucker. I like the direction — but I think the betting market is mistaking long-term optimism with short-term rationality. Sparty has endured a decline in talent for years under the bloat of Mike Dantonio for years — especially on the offensive line. The recruiting war arms race in the Big Ten East with Michigan and Penn State investing furiously to try to catch up to Ohio State left Sparty far behind while Dantonio preached an outdated model while fueling all his attentions on his in-state rival. The paradigm where Michigan State played Alabama in the BCS college football playoff in 2016 has long since been transformed. It will take longer than a year for Tucker to rebuild this program. He is trying to ride transfer roulette wheel for this year — and he may have improved the program he inherited. More than 20 players left the program in the offseason but he brought in more than 20. Whoo-hoo! I mean, guys aren’t leaving starting jobs at elite programs. The Michigan State defense has declined — they allowed 35.1 PPG last year (100th FBS and the worst mark in program history) and lost the best player on all three levels. I think second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is great who will benefit from a full year of teaching — but he can only do so much. The talent on offense may not yet fit the scheme of second year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who brought 21st century principles with him when he came over with Tucker from Colorado. The rushing attack has ranked 122nd, 113th, and 114th in the nation in the last three seasons. Tucker brought in Temple QB Anthony Russo as a graduate transfer — but he agrees with all of us in wondering if that was an upgrade over sophomore Payton Thorne who made one start last year. Tucker has yet to name a starter as of my last deep dive — but it doesn’t matter, let him start the turnover machine from Temple. Or not. There is simply a talent deficit still between these two teams. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake is that Northwestern will be motivated to avenge a 29-20 upset loss in East Lansing against Sparty as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats fell behind by a 17-0 score before scoring 20 unanswered points — but turnovers in the fourth quarter led to their 9-point loss. The grind of the Big Ten — where emotions at home can play a big role. Northwestern has that emotional edge this time around — something that Fitzgerald has been pounding into his team since August practices started. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). THE SITUATION: Boise State (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that finished 5-2 after a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Central Florida (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that ended the season with a 6-4 record after a 49-23 loss to BYU in the Boca Raton Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State is under new management after Bryan Harsin took the head coaching job at Boise State. The Broncos hired a former player and defensive coordinator in Andy Avalos to rework their defense that allowed 27.1 PPG last season. Those were the most points that Boise State surrendered since 1998. Avalos was previously the defensive coordinator at Oregon. He should improve a defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of their seven games last year. It was a lost season for the Broncos that started on the wrong foot when COVID led to them canceling their entire spring practice schedule. The team was hit hard by COVID and injuries during the regular season with both their highly-touted quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Jack Sears, missing time. Sears, a former USC transfer, only played one game. Bachmeier started four games last season including the end of the season despite not being 100%. He has been tabbed the starter for this game. He displayed a big upside in his freshman season as one of the biggest recruits in the history of the program by averaging 8.6 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. He has two returning starters at wide receiver in seniors Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas who have combined for 248 receptions and 24 touchdown catches in their career. The Boise State offense has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Plough who brings his Air Raid attack to Boise from UC-Davis. In his time as the Aggies' offensive coordinator, they averaged just 23 seconds between plays — so except a very fast pace. The Broncos should carve up a suspect Knights pass defense that was 110th in the nation last year by allowing 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Central Florida’s best defensive back last season was free safety Richie Grant who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. The Knights will miss the three-time All-Conference player. Boise State opted out from playing in a bowl game — so this nationally televised game is important for them to re-establish themselves on the national stage. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 range. Central Florida also has a new coach in Gus Malzahn — the guy that Boise State’s previous coach is replacing at Auburn. He replaces Josh Heupel who took the Tennessee head coaching job. While the Knights bring back 17 starters, they lost talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL — and this is not a program that simply reloads. UCF lost their top two running backs in Greg McRae and Otis Anderson and their leading receiver in Marlon Williams who had five 100-yards receiving games last year. Expectations are high for the Knights with junior Dillon Gabriel under center — but he is adjusted to the new Malzahn system on offense. It is the Knights’ defense that will likely be their downfall in this game. They allowed their opponents to average +86 YPG above their season average last year — 123rd in the nation. They allowed at least 30 points six times. UCF benefited from a +12 net turnover margin last year that made up for their defense that allowed 491.8 total YPG (123rd in the FBS). The Knights cannot rely on having the fifth-best net turnover margin once again this season. This shapes up to be a shootout — but that usually does not bode well for this football team. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games when an underdog getting up to 7 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Blue Jays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (967) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Matt Harvey. THE SITUATION: Toronto (69-62) had their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 4-2 loss to the Orioles. Baltimore (41-90) ended a four-game losing streak with the win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a victory amidst a historically bad season. Baltimore is getting outscored by -1.8 Runs-Per-Game. They have lost 23 of their last 26 games — and they covered the +1.5 Run-Line just twice in those 23 losses. And while they pulled the upset last night with Toronto priced at a big -300 price, they have then lost 9 of their last 12 games after upsetting an AL East rival when priced at +130 or higher. Furthermore, they have lost 40 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have lost 47 of their last 58 games against teams with a winning record. The Orioles’ bullpen has a 9.53 ERA in their last seven games — they have allowed 18 earned runs in 17 innings. Baltimore has lost 29 of their last 31 games when their bullpen has been saddled with an ERA of 7.00 or worse in their last seven games. They give the ball to Harvey who has a 6-14 record with a 6.18 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP this season. The right-hander had a momentarily spell in July where he found his groove — but it went away as he returned to form in August where he had a 6.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in five starts. His teams have lost 17 of their last 25 road games priced at +150 or higher when he is making the start. He faces a Blue Jays team that scores 5.3 Runs-Per-Game at home. Toronto has won 10 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, Toronto has won 13 of their last 19 games at home when favored — and they have won 20 of their last 25 home games when priced in the -175 to -250 range. They counter with Matz who has a 10-7 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. The left-hander comes off an outstanding month — he sported a 1.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .226. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. He should thrive against this Orioles team that has lost 26 of their last 35 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Blue Jays have won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto has won 7 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss at home where they priced as a -250 or higher money-line favorite. The Blue Jays have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 22 of their 27 victories when priced at -155 or higher this season. Baltimore has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 45 of their 56 losses when priced at +145 or higher this season. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the Toronto Blue Jays (968) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (967) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Matt Harvey. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (70-59) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-3 loss on the road to the Dodgers in Game One of this series last night. Los Angeles (82-49) has won two of their last three games and five of their last seven contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers bashed four home runs last night against the Braves — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they hit four or more home runs. The Under is also 19-4-3 in Los Angeles’ last 26 games after a win — and the Under is 12-3-5 in their last 20 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 24-8-4 in the Dodgers’ last 36 games at home — and the Under is 11-4-2 in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 23 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Under is 16-5-2. Buehler gets the start tonight after he pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his last outing at San Diego last Wednesday. Los Angeles has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total with Buehler pitching on five or six days rest. The right-hander has a sparkling 13-2 record this season with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts. Since the All-Star break, Buehler has a 1.32 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in eight starts spanning 54 2/3 innings — and he has struck out 64 batters over that span. In 22 starts under the lights at night, Buehler has a WHIP of 0.88 while holding opposing batters to a .180 batting average. The Dodgers have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with Buehler pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -150 to -200. He faces a Braves team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .290 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .702 over that span. The Under is 3-1-2 in Atlanta’s last 6 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Braves have played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total. The Under is also 11-4-2 in Atlanta’s last 17 games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Morton who is 12-5 this season with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander will look to bounce-back from his last appearance last Tuesday when he allowed four runs in five innings against the Yankees. He gave up two home runs in that game — and that was the first time he surrendered multiple home runs in a game since June of 2019. Morton has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191. He has a 3.34 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at night. And in his last five starts, he boasts a 3.10 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. He should continue to pitch well against a Dodgers team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .195 Batting Average, .262 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .623. Los Angeles has played 4 straight games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 17-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when hosting the Braves in Dodger Stadium. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (911) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (952) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (71-61) has lost two in a row after their 2-1 loss at Miami yesterday. St. Louis (66-63) has lost seven of their last twelve games after a 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE:  Cincinnati managed only four hits yesterday in their loss to the Marlins — but they have then won 8 of their last 11 games after not scratching out more than four hits in their last game. The Reds have won 28 of their last 41 games after losing two of their last three games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series. After playing their last four games on the road, Cincinnati returns home where they have won 4 straight games. The Reds have also won 24 of their last 31 home games when favored — and they have won 10 of their last 11 home games when favored in the -175 to -250 price range. They give the ball to Castillo who has a 7-13 record with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 27 starts. After a disastrous start to the season, the right-hander has found his groove — in his 16 starts since the beginning of June, Castillo has a 2.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Castillo has been more effective at home at the Great American Ballpark where he has a 3.50 ERA in 13 starts — and he sports a 1.04 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in his last four starts at home. Cincinnati has won 9 of their 12 home games with Castillo pitching as a favorite priced in the -175 to -250 price range. He should pitch well against this Cardinals team that has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 in a row against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. St. Louis has lost 4 straight opening games to a new series. They continue their road trip having lost 13 of their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 19 of their last 28 road games as an underdog. They give the ball to Lester who has a 4-6 record with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in 21 starts. In his five starts in a Cardinals uniform since being traded by Washington, the left-hander has a 6.04 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .343. He has been hit very hard on the road this season with a 6.15 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .329 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 road games with him pitching as a money-line underdog priced in the +150 to +200 range. He faces a Reds that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they have won 4 straight home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Cardinals upset the Reds in their last meeting on July 25th by a 10-6 score in Cincinnati — but Cincy has won 16 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. The Reds have still won 6 of their last 7 meetings between these two teams — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games when playing at the Great American Ballpark.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of their 18 victories this season when priced at -155 or higher — and St. Louis has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their 14 losses this season when priced at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Cincinnati Reds (952) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (133) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (134). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-0) remained unbeaten in the preseason with their 17-13 win against the New York Giants as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Atlanta (0-2) remained winless in their first two preseason games after their 37-17 loss at Miami as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has assembled one of the best rosters in the league — and with the reports coming out today that head coach Kevin Stefanski will be using this third preseason game as a dress rehearsal contest for the regular season, the Browns become a strong play. Handicapping the preseason in the NFL (successfully) is not the same as it was five years ago. Back then, deciphering edges against the point spread mostly involved the qualitative assessment and comparison of both team’s rosters — especially at quarterback. Getting a book on the philosophy each head coach had regarding how they used preseason games has always been important as well — but Sean McVay’s commitment to not play any starters in the preseason established a school of thought that many of his peers have adopted. After no preseason last year because of the pandemic and the league’s shift to just three preseason games, a new dynamic has taken hold this year. It had been conventional wisdom for most head coaches to use the third preseason game as the dress rehearsal game where he has his starters get in their most minutes — and then the last preseason game is used exclusively to make the final roster decisions. Not playing starters in the final preseason game also gave them a week of rest before the regular season while protecting them from short-term injuries that could threaten their status for the start of the season. But with the NFL having next week off before the start of the regular season, head coaches face a dilemma: not playing their starters in this third preseason game could risk them being rusty. Stefanski appears to be erring on the side of using this game to get his starters time to establish a rhythm. So while I do not expect Baker Mayfield and company to play into the second half, I will not be surprised if Mayfield is still playing in the second quarter. The Browns' first unit offense should score their share of points against a suspect Falcons defense that was 29th in the NFL by allowing 398.4 total YPG while ranking last in pass defense. I like their hire of Dean Pees as their defensive coordinator — but he will be deploying vanilla defensive schemes in their last preseason game. Cleveland returned all 11 starters on offense — and they have one of the better quarterback rooms in the league. Case Keenum is Mayfield’s backup — he has 62 career starts in the NFL with a 62.8% completion percentage with a 75:47 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Keenum has completed 21 of 29 passes this preseason for 189 yards. Third-stringer Kyle Lauletta has been feisty as well this preseason. He posted a strong 91.4 passing grade from Pro Football Focus in his first preseason game against Jacksonville where he was airing it out with an average of more than 9 air yards per attempt. He completed 14 of 23 passes for 152 yards last week against the Giants. In both games, he has completed 33 of 50 passes for 364 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Don’t underestimate the value of back door covers — it is not luck when observing the comparative edge these QBs have against fourth and fifth stringers on defense. Lauletta is not only fighting for his job since the Browns may only carry two quarterbacks on the active roster — but he is also auditioning for other teams on national television tonight. Atlanta has allowed 30.0 PPG and 333.0 total YPG in their first two preseason games. The talent level on defense is a particular concern (and why I passed on the Under) — especially on their defensive line. Rookie head coach Arthur Smith has embraced the McVay philosophy of not playing his starters in this preseason. Matt Ryan has not played a down. There is some speculation that some (or all) of the Atlanta starters will play — so maybe Ryan gets some action tonight despite earlier reports being he would not play a down in August. Either way, net edge for Cleveland now that there has been confirmation that Stefanski will play their starters a bit. The Falcons’ quarterback room is a mess after A.J. McCarron suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week. Atlanta’s third-stringer QB is undrafted rookie Feleipe Franks who was up-and-down in his career at Florida and then Arkansas. He remains very raw. He earned a 53.0 passing grade by PFF in his first game against Tennessee after completing only 2 of 9 passes for 16 yards. He then completed 4 of 9 for 46 yards last week against the Dolphins — but he threw an interception. His preseason numbers of 6 completions in 18 attempts for 62 yards is not encouraging. He was sacked four times in his 16 dropbacks last week — and he averaged 3.5 seconds in the pocket before releasing which is S-L-O-W. He will likely then give way to Josh Rosen who was signed this week after the McCarron injury. Rosen just does not have it after being cut early in the San Francisco camp when Kyle Shanahan gave up on his raw talent. He seems lost — and his 46.2 PFF passing grade in his career does not suggest a magical turnaround is coming. If he plays — and I think he will for the trial by fire in learning a new offense under coordinator Dave Ragone — it won’t be pretty.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland’s backups have played well this preseason — the Browns have averaged 20.0 PPG and allowed just 13.0 PPG. They have outgained their two opponents by +60.0 net YPG. Atlanta has been outgained in both their preseason games by more than 100 yards. They have been outscored by 40 points in both games while averaging just 10.0 PPG and 195.5 total YPG. With Cleveland’s starters playing, I expect a victory for the Browns by at least a touchdown. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (133) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Baltimore Orioles (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Spenser Watkins. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (81-48) has won six in a row and ten of their last eleven after their 4-3 victory against the Orioles yesterday. Baltimore (40-68) has split out their last four games after enduring a nineteen-game losing streak.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 15-5-1 in the Rays’ last 21 games after a win — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a victory by two runs or less. Tampa Bay has not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than four runs in six games in a row. Additionally, the Rays have played 20 of their last 29 road games Over the Total as a road favorite priced at -110 or higher — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. They give the ball to Archer who has an 0-1 record with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP this season after recently returning from the 60-day disabled list from a hip injury. Archer did not pitch last season as he recovered from shoulder surgery — but his 6.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 11 road starts is cause for concern. The right-hander may be able to reinvent his once-bright career — but he probably needs a full offseason to work out the kinks. He has pitched only one time on the road this year where he surrendered four hits and three runs in two innings of work. His teams have played 35 of their last 52 road games Over the Total in the second half of the season. He faces an Orioles team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .285 Batting Average, .341 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .869. The Over is 19-7-1 in Baltimore’s last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore had a 3-0 lead going into the top of the seventh inning yesterday before their bullpen surrendered two runs apiece in the next two innings. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after blowing a save in their last game. The Over is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games at home — and the Over is 23-10-1 in the Orioles’ last 34 home games with the Total set from 9-10.5. The Over is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They counter with Spenser Watkins who has a 2-6 record with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts) this season. The right-hander has been crushed as of late — he has been saddled with a 10.67 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in his last six starts while allowing at least four earned runs in each of those appearances. Watkins has been less effective at home at Camden Yards where he has a 7.59 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .337. Baltimore has played 5 straight Overs this season when Watkins is pitching at home as a money-line underdog. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-10-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 39 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Rays have won the last eleven meetings between these two teams — Baltimore has played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total when having lost at least five in a row to their opponents. The Over is 8-2-1 in those last 11 encounters between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing in Baltimore. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Rays (913) and the Baltimore Orioles (914) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Spenser Watkins. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (124) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (123). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-2) remained winless in the preseason last Saturday in a 30-3 loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (1-1) lost at home to San Francisco last Sunday night by a 15-10 score as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Pete Carroll will treat this third preseason game as his team’s dress rehearsal. Said Carroll: “Week three is a big deal for us. We'll go back to a lot of the other guys that haven't played in the first two games to prepare for game one of the regular season.” Quarterback Russell Wilson and many of the Seahawks' first string has not yet played this preseason — but they will play for about a half tonight. And it will likely be Geno Smith who gets the majority of the snaps in the second half as Wilson’s backup after he did not play last week against the Broncos. It was Sean Mannion and Alex McGough in their battle for the third-string QB that combined to score just three points in that game. The Seahawks usually play well in the preseason under Carroll. They have covered 20 of their last 31 preseason games against AFC opponents in Carroll’s tenure. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home preseason games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points under Carroll. And while their first two preseason games have finished Under the Total, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least two straight Unders. Los Angeles’s rookie head coach, Brandon Staley, was the defensive coordinator with the Rams last season — and he has embraced Sean McVay’s philosophy of not playing his starters in preseason games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert and other starters like safety Derwin James will not take the field and risk injury in this game. The Chargers have a middling quarterback room in veteran Chase Daniel and Easton Stick. Daniel has played in 69 games in his career but he has made only five starts. He completed 14 of 21 passes against the 49ers last Sunday night but threw a bad interception. He has completed 29 of 45 passes in the preseason but for only 164 yards for a lowly 3.64 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Stick is a former fifth-round pick from North Dakota State in his third year who has played in one NFL game in the regular season. Together, these two quarterbacks have led an offense that has averaged only 11.5 PPG and 210.5 total YPG in their previous two preseason games. The Chargers managers just 162 total yards against San Francisco last week.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 preseason games under Carroll when playing with six days or less of rest. 25* NFLx Saturday NFL Network Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (124) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that settled for a 3-5 record in a COVID-shortened season last year. Illinois (0-0) begins the Bret Bielema head coaching era after Lovie Smith was sacked before the final game of the 2020 season where they finished 2-6.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS MINUS THE POINTS: If fourth-year head coach Scott Frost was not on the hot seat after posting a 12-20 record in his first three seasons at his alma mater in Lincoln, the NCAA violations issued against the football program under his watch certainly raised the stakes this season for Frost with another album as athletic director in Trev Alberts who did not hire him. After four straight losing seasons, Frost must deliver — and the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season with dates Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This is a must-win situation for the Cornhuskers. Frost has problems — players are transferring and his recruitment has waned. But 17 starters return from a group that outgained their opponents last season by +5 net Yards-Per-Game. Nebraska was just 1-4 in close games decided by one possession. Turning the ball over in 18.95% of their possessions on offense was a killer. Yet there is stability on offense under senior quarterback Adrian Martinez. While the dual-threat QB is not likely to meet the expectations surrounding his early hype, he is a veteran who completed 71.5% of his passes last season while running for another 521 yards with his 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. With a wide receiving corps that is the most talented in the Frost era, this should be a better offensive team. With USC transfer Markese Stepp and a handful of talented freshmen at running back, someone should step up. The defense has 90% of their production return led by five “super seniors” playing in their sixth season. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Scott Frost’s teams at Nebraska and Central Florida have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lovie Smith did not leave the cupboard bare for Bielema at Illinois — in fact, I think Smith was moving this program in the right direction before COVID put a monkey wrench in many coaches' plans last season (especially the ones who are effective teachers who rely on practices). In comes Bielema who bolted from his success at Wisconsin for the money in the SEC where he failed to elevate the Arkansas program. He returns to Big Ten country where he is moving from a spread offense to probably more of a power running game. The defense moves from a 4-3 to a 3-4 — and these system changes on both sides of the ball can see transition problems in these early games. As it is, Bielema’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in the opening two weeks of the season. His quarterback is sixth-year senior Brandon Peters who transferred from Michigan a few years ago when the writing was on the wall that he would not get the starting job after a bad bowl game sealed his fate. The inconsistent QB has averaged only 144.6 passing YPG with the Illini. He led an offense last year that ranked 119th in the FBS in Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt — and the returning wide receiving corps lacks a clear number one option. The Illini defense has finished 12th or worse in total yardage in four of the last five seasons under a former NFL head coach whose defensive acumen propelled the Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that carried Rex Grossman at QB. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, previously the coordinator of the Missouri defense the last six seasons, is not an upgrade. Bielema is in a rebuild — so he has time. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home where they do not retain a great home edge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in August.

FINAL TAKE: If the stakes were not high enough for Nebraska, they will have revenge on their mind after getting upset by Illinois last year at home by a 41-23 score as a 16-point underdog on November 21st. Good bulletin board material for Frost in a game Bielema had no connection with. 25* CFB Television Game of the Month is with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Yankees (921) versus the Oakland A’s (922) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Sean Manaea. THE SITUATION: New York (75-52) won their twelfth straight game after their 7-6 win on the road against the Athletics in the opening game of this series last night. Oakland (70-58) has lost five in a row and nine of their last eleven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York is as hot as any team in MLB right now — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Yankees have won 43 of their last 63 games after a win. Furthermore, New York has won 5 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record — and they have won 7 of their last 8 road games when favored. And in their last 32 games against teams with a winning record, the Yankees have won 23 of these games. They give the ball to Cole who has a 12-6 record with a 2.92 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season. Since returning from COVID quarantine, the right-hander has allowed only one run in 11 2/3 innings in two starts for a 0.77 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP with 15 strikeouts. Cole also dominates when he is pitching at night — he has a 1.87 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 when pitching under the lights. His teams have won 39 of their last 53 games when he is pitching at night. Oakland has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they are scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .212 Batting Average, .275 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .643. The A’s have lost 6 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They have lost 5 games in a row at home — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 home games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Manaea who is also slumping as of late. The lefty has an 8-8 record this season with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 25 starts — but in his last four starts, he has a 9.76 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. Workload could be an issue — his 138 1/3 innings this season overwhelm the 90 innings he has pitched in the previous two seasons combined. Manaea also has a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in his 13 home starts as opposed to his 1.16 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average on the road. Oakland has lost 5 of their last 7 home games when a money-line underdog priced at +125 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees are scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games during this hot streak with an OPS of .802 over that span. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. I am agnostic about New York’s winning streak (except that I think momentum exists since it is positive energy) — this is enticing given the pitching matchup between two starters moving in the opposite direction. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Yankees (921) versus the Oakland A’s (922) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Sean Manaea. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Sam Hentges. THE SITUATION: Texas (44-82) has lost six of their last eight games after their 7-2 loss on the road against the Indians in the opening game of this series last night. Cleveland (62-62) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rangers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Over is 3-0-1 in the Rangers’ last 4 games on the road — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. Texas has also played 18 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They give the ball to Lyles who has a 6-10 record with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. The right-hander comes off one of his best outings of the season where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work at Boston last Saturday. His teams have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when he is following up a start where he allowed no more than one earned run. Lyles had been saddled with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his previous three starts. His ERA rises to a 5.40 mark in his 71 2/3 innings on the road — and the Rangers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Lyles pitching with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. His teams have also played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when he is making a start in August. He faces a Tribe team that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game with a .289 Batting Average, .341 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .845. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. They clubbed four home runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after hitting at least four homers in their last game. They have also played 29 of their last 48 games Over the Total after winning at least two of their last three games. They counter with Hentges who is 1-4 with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP this season. The lefty pitched four innings in his last start which is rare — he does not usually pitch more than one time through the order when he is used as a starting pitcher. He has a rough 8.75 ERA with a 2.07 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings at night. His teams have played his last 4 starts at night Over the Total. His teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when he is the starting pitcher in games with the Total set from 8.5 to 10.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have struggled at the plate most of the season — but they are hitting better as of late. They are scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .287 Batting Average, .325 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .744 during that span. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (967) and the Cleveland Indians (968) listing both starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Sam Hentges. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (79-47) has won 10 of their last 11 games after winning the opening game of this series last night by a 5-2 score. San Diego (68-59) has lost six of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-2-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 road games against teams with a winning record. The Under is 13-5-2 in their last 20 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Buehler who has a 13-2 record with a 2.11 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 25 starts this season. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he owns a 2.07 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in ten starts. He has been extremely tough to hit since the beginning of June. In his last 15 starts consisting of 98 innings, he has a 1.74 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 8 of their last 13 games in August with Buehler making the start. Buehler should have success against this slumping Padres team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .196 Batting Average with a .272 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .628. San Diego has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have played 5 straight Unders following a loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after giving up five or more runs in their last game. Furthermore, San Diego has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog. They counter with Snell who is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 23 starts. The left-hander’s inconsistency seems to coincide with his home/road splits. Snell is saddled with a 7.01 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in his 13 starts on the road — but he enjoys a 2.68 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .175 in his 10 home starts at Petco Park. Snell has found a groove this month — he has a 2.45 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in four starts this month with 34 strikeouts in his 22 innings. Despite last night’s victory, Los Angeles is scoring only 4.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .221 Batting Average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .690.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .218 Batting Average. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) versus the San Diego Padres (962) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Pierce Johnson. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (78-47) had their nine-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 7-2 loss to the New York Mets. San Diego (68-58) has lost five of their last six after a 7-4 loss to the Phillies on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Padres are a bit of a hot mess right now. After the bullpen surrendered seven runs on Sunday, manager Jayce Tingler fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild to once again fulfill the old adage regarding the inability of managers to be able to fire all the players. Bullpen coach Ben Fritz takes over as the pitching coach with the hopes that the shakeup and new voice will fix a struggling pitching staff. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 12 games after their bullpen allows at least six runs in their last game. The problem is not just the bullpen either as the starting pitchers are not going deep into games. The Padres’ bullpen has pitched at least four innings in eight straight games — and San Diego has lost 13 of their last 21 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in at least three straight games. Furthermore, the Padres have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, San Diego has lost 21 of their last 29 home games as an underdog. Injuries have played a role with this struggling pitching staff that got Rothschild fired. Because You Darvish is on the shelf, Tingley is relying on a bullpen game tonight with Pierce Johnson serving as the opener. The right-hander has a 3-2 record with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 43 1/3 innings. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP of 3.23 and 3.49 moving forward. This will be his first start of the season — and beginning a game has a different dynamic to it than coming on in relief. He along with the struggling an overworked Padres’ bullpen that has a 5.02 ERA in their last seven games faces a Dodgers team that scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Los Angeles has a sparkling 15-4 record this month after the shot in the arm at the trading deadline where they brought in Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Danny Duffy. The Dodgers have won 4 straight games when rebounding from a loss — and they have won 42 of their last 59 games after an off-day. Los Angeles has also won 28 of their last 38 games after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have won 7 of their last 8 games — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Urias who is coming off the injured list after dealing with a left calf issue. He has a 13-3 record for the season with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 24 starts. In his last nine starts since late June, Urias has stepped up with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 54 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.88 ERA. 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .212 in 14 starts. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 13 road games with Urias pitching as a road favorite priced at -110 or higher. He faces a San Diego lineup that is also slumping — they are saddled with a .226 Batting Average, 0.308 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .725 in their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have lost four in a row to the Padres with their last meeting being on June 23rd when San Diego when at home in Petco Park by a 5-3 score. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 games when playing a team that has beaten them at least four times in a row — and they have won 6 of their 9 games this season when playing with triple revenge. 25* MLB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (961) versus the San Diego Padres (962) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Pierce Johnson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (431) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (432). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 23-13 upset loss at home to Cleveland as a 1.5-point favorite last Saturday. New Orleans (0-1) comes off a 17-14 loss at Baltimore as a  2.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: It might be tempting to lay the points with the Saints tonight since there is a legitimate quarterback battle between Jameis Winston on Taysom Hill. But these teams have been engaged in joint practices since Friday — and that is where the real action took place particularly in controlled situational exercises for head coach Sean Payton to make determinations. Payton has tabbed Winston as his starter with Hill to get time. I am not going to be surprised if Hill gets the starting gig in the regular season — I think Payton sees Hill as a mini-Drew Brees. I am not saying I agree — and Payton is the expert. But Payton may also be guilty of getting high on his own supply when it comes to his offensive genius — he would not be the first brilliant NFL coach who eventually lost perspective. Regardless, Winston and Hill were solid against the Ravens' defense last week. Winston completed 7 of 12 passes for 96 yards and Hill completed 8 of 12 for 81 yards. Yet they only scored 14 points against the Ravens — and they committed six turnovers in that game. While the quarterback competition is still live, I expect a vanilla game plan on national television from the Saints after three days of joint practices. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 preseason games under Payton. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 preseason games after not scoring more than 14 points in their proviso preseason game under Payton. It is interesting to note that Payton rested many of his starters on defense last week against Baltimore. He may do the same tonight since depth is a problem for this team on defense — so the additional game time will help them sort out those positional battles on that side of the ball. Jacksonville has their own quarterback battle tonight as well with first-year head coach Urban Meyer declaring an “ongoing quarterback competition” between Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew. While no one believes that, that should ensure both quarterbacks get plenty of snaps tonight. I do think that the Jaguars will challenge Lawrence with a more aggressive playbook — the rookie needs real reps if he is going to start Week One. Lawrence was just OK last week — while he completed 13 of 16 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown pass, his Pro Football Focus grade was a subpar 58.5. I think Lawrence will play much better — as I think the entire team will be much improved this week. Meyer has had nine days work on mistakes from their loss to the Browns — and I have confidence in the long-time college coach to establish a culture of learning and improvement in Jacksonville. Meyer played his likely first string last week as well — it appears he falls in the old-school coaching camp that believes in using exhibition games to get even his best players reps. Minshew was not very good last week — he completed just 4 of 8 passes for 47 yards with an interception. Minshew is a solid backup quarterback — especially when playing against backups on defense — he threw for over 2200 yards last year with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He should play better tonight. The Jaguars have one of the better quarterback rooms in the league with C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton — Beathard has 12 career starts and Luton made three starts in his rookie campaign last year. Either QB could lead a late scoring drive to produce a backdoor cover (if we need it) — and they are in a legit battle for the final quarterback roster spot.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 17 preseason games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range in the Payton era — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points under Payton. 25* NFLx Preseason Television Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (431) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (429) and the Los Angeles Chargers (430). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (0-1) lost their opening preseason game at home to Kansas City by a 19-16 scorer as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Los Angeles (1-0) comes off a 13-6 win at SoFi Stadium against the Rams as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: San Francisco will be using this game as another challenge between quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance with both expected to play. Frankly, I do not think this is much of a competition at this point — I will be very surprised if Garoppolo is not the starter in Week One. Lance has great talent — but last week’s game was just his second opportunity to be under center against hostile competition since January 2020. He looked rusty last week — and he made several mistakes. He completed only 5 of 14 passes for 128 yards — yet 80 of those yards were on one play. Take away that electric touchdown pass and Lance completed only 4 of 13 passes for 48 yards. Lance took four sacks and was almost responsible for three turnovers. Pro Football Focus grade for the game was just 44.8 — one of their lowest assessments last week for quarterbacks. Garoppolo was a professional 3 of 3 for 26 yards last week. He has a 24-9 record as a starter in his career — and he got head coach Kyle Shanahan to the Super Bowl. His bigger concern has been health — which means there is no reason to rush getting Lance on the field in the regular season. That is why I also expect Lance to get a majority of snaps tonight. The 49ers cut Josh Rosen this week after he completed 10 of 15 passes against the Chiefs with an interception. Nate Sudfeld is the third-stringer who make get action tonight after Rosen’s audition last week. Shanahan’s teams with San Francisco have played 4 straight Unders on the road in the preseason. His teams have also played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley has fully-embraced Sean McVay’s philosophy of not playing starters during the regular season. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert is not expected to take the field tonight after not playing against the Rams. The Chargers’ starting quarterback tonight will be journeyman Chase Daniel who completed 15 of 24 passes last week. But those 15 completions led to only 104 passing yards. The Chargers only gained 259 total yards of offense. Daniel’s backup is Easton Stick who completed all 7 of his passes last week for 63 yards. But the former North Dakota State QB played in only one regular-season game in his NFL career — he remains a very raw prosecute. This Chargers defense should be good under Staley who was the defensive coordinator for the outstanding Rams’ unit. They held the Rams to just 197 yards last week.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had joint practices this week starting on Thursday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small (and not doing great this week) — but the numbers still support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence — particularly in my expectation that Lance will get most of the snaps for the Niners. 25* NFLx Sunday NFL Network Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (429) and the Los Angeles Chargers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Jose Suarez. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (60-61) has won five of their last eight games with their 5-1 victory against the Angels yesterday. Los Angeles (62-63) has lost the first two games of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland has won 23 of their 31 home games this season as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. They give the ball to Quantrill who has a 3-2 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 33 games and 15 starts this season. The right-hander has found his groove this summer since joining the starting rotation. In his nine starts since the beginning of July, Quantrill has a 2.41 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He allowed eight hits and three runs in his last start in five innings at Minnesota on August 16th — and that was the first time in his last six starts where he allowed more than four base hits. He returns home where he sports a 2.81 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 this season in 57 2/3 innings. He should pitch well against this slumping Angels team that is hitting just .223 with a .286 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .668 in their last seven games. Los Angeles has only scored two runs in this series with no home runs. The Angels have lost 14 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than four runs in two straight games — and they have lost 15 of their last 23 games after not hitting a homer in at least two games in a row. Los Angeles only stranded two runners last night as well — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games are stranding three runners or less in their last contest. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 5 of their last 7 road games as a money-line underdog. LA counters with Jose Suarez who has a 5-6 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16 games and seven starts this season. The sabermetrics call for regression for the left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.21 and 4.13 moving forward. Suarez has a 4.79 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in his nine games and five starts under the lights at night — and the Angels have lost 13 of their last 15 games when he is the starting pitcher for a night game. Suarez does come off a nice outing where he allowed only two runs on the road against the Yankees last Monday — but he had been saddled with a 6.75 ERA in his previous four starts. Manager Joe Maddon has an overworked bullpen that will likely need to support him tonight. An LA starting pitcher has not completed four innings in their last three games — and the Angels have lost 9 of their last 14 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland won the opening game of this series by a 9-1 score on Friday — and the Angels have lost 18 of their last 26 games when playing with double revenge in two losses where they did not score more than two runs. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (974) versus the Los Angeles Angels (973) listing both starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Jose Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (423) and the Los Angeles Rams (424). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) won their opening preseason game in a 20-7 victory against Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Los Angeles (0-1) lost their opening preseason game as the technical home team against their housemates at SoFi Stadium in the Los Angeles Rams by a 13-6 score on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game will mostly be a battle of backups. Head coach Jon Gruden is not likely to play starting quarterback Derek Carr in the preseason (but let’s confirm that for next week’s final exhibition game). Nathan Peterman played the entire game last week with Marcus Mariota hobbled with a leg injury. Mariota has been cleared to play earlier today — he is expected to take the field. However, I do not see him playing more than a series or two since he is not at 100%. This will likely be Peterman’s game primarily once again. The Raiders gained 385 yards with Peterman under center last week against the Seahawks — but that yardage was propped up by them holding the ball for 40:37 minutes in that game. Las Vegas averaged only 5.13 Yards-Per-Play with head coach Jon Gruden milking the clock to shorten the game. The Raiders have played 6 of their 9 preseason games in the Gruden era Under the Total. Gruden’s teams have also played 11 of their 14 preseason games in his career Under the Total when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has played 7 of their 9 preseason games Under the Total in the Sean McVay era with him leading the way for the new school coaches to not play starters. Matthew Stafford will not play a down in the preseason — and backup John Wolford is not expected to play either. Wolford is also recovering from an appendectomy that McVay wants to make sure he fully heals from. That leaves the offense under the guidance of quarterbacks Devlin Hodges and Bryce Perkins. The Rams managed only 197 total yards against the Chargers last week — and they only completed one pass of more than 10 yards between Hodges and Perkins. The wide receiver depth chart is limited tonight with backups Van Jefferson and rookie Tutu Atwell dealing with injuries. That leaves the cupboard bare regarding targets for Perkins and Hodges tonight since Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Desean Jackson will not take the field. McVay’s teams have played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their preseason game. Additionally, McVays’ teams have played 4 of their preseason games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their 8 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had joint practices this week starting on Wednesday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small — but the earlier numbers support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence. 25* NFLx Saturday NFL Network Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (423) and the Los Angeles Rams (424). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: Colorado (56-66) has won four games in a row after their 9-4 victory against the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series. Arizona (41-82) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has won 10 of their last 12 games at home after a win by four or more runs — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Rockies are a much better team at home — they come off a three-game sweep at Coors Field against San Diego. They have won 38 of their last 53 games at home — and they have won 22 of their last 30 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They have won 14 of their last 18 home games when priced as a money-line favorite from -110 to -150. They have also won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Freeland who has a 4-6 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 15 starts. The left-hander has been better under the lights where he owns a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 11 starts. Freeland has been a much better pitcher this summer as he owns a 2.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in eight starts since the beginning of July. In his last five starts at home, Freeland has a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 7 home games with Freeland the starting pitcher. He should pitch well against this Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .218 Batting Average, .240 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .646. Arizona has lost 37 of their last 54 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have lost 52 of their last 68 games after a loss. Arizona has now lost 41 of their last 52 games on the road — and they have lost 20 of their last 27 road games against teams with a losing record. The Diamondbacks have also lost 25 of their last 30 road games against fellow NL West rivals. Arizona has lost 19 of their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Gallen who has a 1-7 record with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 15 starts. Over his last seven starts since the start of July, Gallen has a 6.56 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The right-hander sees his ERA jump to a 5.50 mark in his seven starts on the road — and the Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Gallen on the mound. He will likely struggle against this Rockies team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .293 Batting Average, .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .835. Colorado also scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .289 Batting Average, .397 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .843. The Rockies have won 20 of their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 6 straight games at Coors Field against the Rockies. 25* MLB National League West Game of the Month with money-line on the Colorado Rockies (910) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W0-D0-L1) opened the 2021-22 English Premier League season with a 4-2 loss to West Ham United last Sunday. Aston Villa (W0-D0-L1) lost at Watford by a 3-2 score last Saturday in their opening EPL match of the season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle struggled with their defensive play against the Hammers last week — they allowed double the number of Big Chances in that match than the EPL club that allowed the second-most Big Chances in Week One. The Magpies blew 1-0 and 2-1 leads in the contest. Newcastle continued the more aggressive style of play that manager Steve Bruce embraced at the end of last season. The Magpies scored 12 goals in their last five EPL matches — and they scored nine goals in their last four EPL matches on the road. With the signing of Joe Willock from Arsenal to join Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, Newcastle has some exciting attacking talent — and Willock is in the starting XI today. Aston Villa struggled to generate scoring chances last week before newcomer Danny Ings drew a penalty that led to his goal from the line in the seventh minute of extra time after the 90th minute. The Villans are replacing midfielder Jack Grealish who signed with Manchester City — and forward Ollie Watkins is out with an injury. Yet Aston Villa still has attacking talent. Ings is one of the best finishers in the EPL after serving as the Southampton talisman the last few seasons. The Villans signed Emi Buendia from Norwich City to replace Grealish’s place on the pitch. He averaged 0.34 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes in the Championship League last year. They also signed Leon Bailey who will get the start after he came off the bench last week. Their attack should improve after a week of training with their new players. Defense is the bigger concern for Villa. They have allowed at least 1.0 expected goals in 12 straight EPL matches — and they conceded at least 2.0 expected goals in three of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa has seen at least three combined goals in four straight EPL matches — and they have seen at least three combined goals in ten of their last eleven EPL contests. Newcastle has seen at least three combined goals in seven of their last eleven EPL matches. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (406) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (405). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) lost New England by a 22-13 score at New England as a 2-point underdog last Thursday in their opening preseason game. Cincinnati (1-0) upset Tampa Bay on the road by a 19-14 score as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: Washington outgained the Patriots last week by +47 net yards — and they controlled the time of possession for 34:57 minutes of that game. The Football team led by a 7-6 score going into halftime — and they won the first down battle by a 24-16 margin. Starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 5 of 8 passes for 58 yards in his limited time. Head coach Ron Rivera has indicated that Fitz-Magic will play one or two series tonight. Backup Taylor Heinicke continued to impress coming off his breakout game in the NFC Wildcard game last year when he kept Washington competitive in a 31-23 loss against Tampa Bay, the eventual Super Bowl champion. Heinicke completed 9 of 15 passes for 86 yards last week. Kyle Allen did not play in that game as he has been nursing a rolled ankle that has limited his participation in training camp. Allen plans to play tonight — and he is a quality backup who is very familiar with the Scott Turner offense having previously been under the offensive coordinator along with Rivera at Carolina. Allen completed 60 of 87 passes last season for 610 yards with four touchdowns just one interception and a nifty 69.0% completion percentage. Practice squad quarterback Steven Montez had a nice game in his first opportunity against hostile competition after last year’s preseason games were canceled. The former Colorado QB completed 17 of 24 passes for 108 yards with a touchdown pass. Rivera’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 preseason games after a straight-up loss in the preseason — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 preseason games after a point spread loss in the preseason. Rivera’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games after a preseason game that finished Under the Total. His Carolina teams covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 preseason games with the Total set no higher than 35. Cincinnati will not have star quarterback Joe Burrow take the field tonight as he continues to recover from his torn ACL last season. The Bengals’ quarterback room is one of the worst in the league (after Burrow). Brandon Allen appears to be the likely backup. The former Arkansas quarterback has a career 2-6 record in his eight starts — his only eight games in the NFL. He has just a 57.1% completion percentage in his career. He completed 7 of 10 passes last week against the Buccaneers for 77 yards — but he did throw an interception. Pro Football Focus graded his performance at a low 50.8. Kyle Shurmur graded worse at 45.5 at PFF for his performance. The Vanderbilt quarterback completed 12 of 19 passes for 108 yards — and he also threw an interception. The undrafted free agent in 2019 has not played in an NFL game. The Bengals also have former Syracuse QB Eric Dungey who has not played in an NFL preseason game yet in his career after not getting on the field against the Bucs. Cincinnati was 1-3 in the preseason in head coach Zac Taylor’s rookie season in 2019 — not much to take from that except to say that he is influenced by the Sean McVay school of thought to not play the starters in preseason games. On the other hand, Rivera is old school who wants his starters getting some reps in these exhibition games.

FINAL TAKE: When we see these clashes between new school coaches and old school coaches in preseason games, we are beginning to see results like last night’s Patriots’ blowout against the Eagles. New England’s success was helped by them having a higher-tier group of players on the field against Philly — their 1s versus the Eagles 2s, their 2s versus the Eagles 3s. That looks to be the case tonight — and it helps explain why the line is above a field goal even in a preseason game. Finally, Washington has a good overall roster with depth at the offensive line, wide receiver, defensive line, and cornerback in particular. 25* NFLx Friday NFL Network Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (406) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Edmonton Elks (671) plus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (672). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (0-2) remained winless in the new Canadian Football League season with their 30-13 upset loss at home to Montreal as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. British Columbia (1-1) pulled off their first win of the season last Thursday in a 15-9 upset win at Calgary as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ELKS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were high for Edmonton this season coming off their loss in the East Division Finals when they last played in November 2019. They hired Scott Milanovich to be their head coach last year before COVID led to the cancellation of the season. Milanovich took a job in the NFL this year which prompted general manager Brock Sunderland to hire former offensive coordinator Jaime Elizondo as the new head coach. Elizondo reunites with quarterback Trevor Harris who had some big regular-season campaigns under his coaching. Harris has passed for more than 4000 yards four times in his CFL career — and he leads the CFL with 566 passing yards so far this season. With wide receivers Greg Ellinson, Armanti Edwards, and Derel Walker, the Elks have one of the most dynamic wide receiving corps in the league. But Red Zone offense has been a problem with Edmonton scoring only one touchdown in their first two games. The Elks are dominating the yardage game as they have outgained their two opponents by +145.0 net YPG. Edmonton should play well tonight behind a veteran quarterback with plenty of CFL experience. The Elks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss at home by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss by 17 or more points. They have scored only 12 and 13 points in their first two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last two games. And they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games at home. British Columbia finished in last place in the West Division in 2019 with a 5-13 record. The organization hired former Ottawa head coach Rick Campbell soon after to lead the rebuild. Quarterback Mike Reilly did not play in the first week with an elbow which cleared the way for former Ohio QB Nate Rourke to get his first professional start. Reilly was a surprise starter last week with his elbow feeling better — and he completed 26 of 33 passes for 342 yards. He will likely play tonight — but who knows how that elbow is doing? Forcing five Stampeders’ turnovers played a big role in the upset victory. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after playing a game where no more than 28 combined points were scored. And while the Leos outgained Calgary by 82 net yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by 70 or more yards. BC’s offensive line was their biggest problem two years ago — and the Elks' defensive line was tied for tops in the CFL in 2019 with 58 sacks (and that core group is back). The Lions return home for their first home game of the season — but the 50% maximum capacity regulations in Canada will limit the attendance to just 12,500 fans. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against fellow West Division foes — and Edmonton has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against British Columbia. 25* CFL Thursday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Edmonton Elks (671) plus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (401) and the Philadelphia Eagles (402). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening preseason game last Thursday by a 22-13 score at home against Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (0-1) got upset at home last week against Pittsburgh by a 24-16 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots allowed the Football Team to gain 367 total yards — but the Pats’ defense was on the field for almost 35 minutes of that game. New England held Washington to just 4.7 Yards-Per-Play in that game which is a very encouraging sign for their defense that was seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 22.1 PPG and that has better depth at all three levels from that group. The Patriots generated only 16 first downs with rookie quarterback Mac Jones getting most of the snaps. Cam Newton only attempted seven passes in that game — I do suspect he will play more tonight. New England only averaged 327.3 total YPG last season which was 27th in the league. They are inexperienced at tackle after their first string of Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown so don’t be surprised if head coach Bill Belichick uses this game to test those younger takes in this game. Belichick’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 preseason games Under the Total against teams from the NFL — and they have played 13 of their last 21 road preseason games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 18 preseason games on the road Under the Total following up a preseason win under Belichick. Philadelphia allowed the Steelers to gain 410 yards last week in the first preseason game under rookie head coach Nick Sirianni. But Pittsburgh had the football for over 41 minutes in that game. The Eagles held the Steelers to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Play. Philly only managed 10 first downs which played a large role in them only being on offense for 18:42 minutes of that game. Looking deeper into the boxscore, the Eagles got 79 of their 277 yards from one pass from Joe Flacco. Take that big play away and Philadelphia averaged only 5.08 Yards-Per-Play in that opening game. The emphasis placed on preseason games is different for all 32 NFL head coaches. It appears Sirianni is not overly concerned about getting his first-string reps in these games. Likely starting quarterback Jalen Hurts played only 10 snaps last week — and backup Joe Flacco is expected to get the majority of the playing time tonight even though this second preseason game becomes the de-facto dress rehearsal game with the exhibition season down to three games (for most teams). Flacco is past his prime — and he was just 9 of 16 for 99 yards save for the one big play of 79 yards. While taking away that big play is unfair, his efficiency was not quite as impressive as his 178 passing yards suggest. Nick Mullens was not good as the third-stringer — he only completed one of his five passes for 4 yards and he tossed two interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams had joint practices this week starting on Monday — and those opportunities allow for scripted situations which afford the coaching staff the chance to try some of the chocolate and strawberry flavors (without cameras) before going vanilla in the later preseason game between the two clubs on television. I have started tracking the data and the sample size is small — but the earlier numbers support the Under when two teams play an exhibition game after sharing joint practices. Just another piece of evidence. 25* NFLx Thursday NFL Network Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (401) and the Philadelphia Eagles (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (958) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jesus Luzardo. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (64-56) has won eight of their last nine games after a 2-0 win on the road against the Marlins last night. Miami (51-69) has lost the first two games of this series after losing the opener by a 12-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 13 of their last 16 games — and they have won 4 straight games after a victory. The Braves have also won 6 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. This is a team hit hard by injuries earlier in the season — and the season-ending knee injury could have put this team in the tank. Instead, they have kept plugging away — and management gave the group a vote of confidence by being aggressive at the trade deadline to acquire Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall to bolster the lineup and Richard Rodriguez to reinforce the bullpen. Atlanta has won a decisive 60 of their last 98 road games when favored — and they have won 6 in a row on the road against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Morton who has an 11-4 record with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 24 starts this season. In three starts this month, the veteran right-hander has a 2.00 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197. Morton has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.09 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in 10 starts. His teams have won 13 of their last 14 road games when favored at -125 or higher with him making the start. He should thrive against this Marlins team that scores only 4.0 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .239 Batting Average, .298 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .667. Miami has lost 20 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. Additionally, Miami has lost 18 of their last 24 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game — and they have lost 42 of their last 56 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. Furthermore, the Marlins managed only four base hits yesterday — and they have lost 12 of their last 16 games after not getting more than four hits in their last game. Miami has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They counter with Luzardo who has a 4-5 record with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings. The left-hander hander has a 9.20 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his three starts in a Marlins uniform since they acquired him from Oakland. Luzardo has potential — but his command and proclivity to give up home runs are holding him back at this point. He has also been saddled with an 8.78 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321 in 26 2/3 innings. He faces a Braves team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .840 slugging percentage. Atlanta also tears up left-handed pitching as they score 6.2 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .265 Batting Average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812. The Braves have won 7 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has lost 20 of their last 29 games when avenging two straight losses to their opponent where they did not score more than two runs. Atlanta has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 9 of their last 11 victories when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. The Marlins have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 18 of their last 21 losses when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line of the Year with the Atlanta Braves (957) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (958) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Jesus Luzardo. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Colorado (52-66) has lost five of their last six games after their 5-2 loss at San Francisco yesterday. San Diego (67-53) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 8-2 win at Arizona yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado did upset the Giants on Saturday — and they have won 14 of their last 18 games at home after losing two of their last three games. They have also won 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And while the Rockies have not scored more than four runs in their last six games, they have then won 8 of their last 10 games at home after not scoring more than four runs in their last game. Now Colorado returns home where they have been much better this season — the last time they played at Coors Field, they scored 13 runs back on August 8th. The Rockies have won 35 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 11 or higher. They give the ball to Senzatela who has a 2-9 record with a 1.43 WHIP in 19 starts. The right-hander has produced a Quality Start in three of his last four efforts — so he should at least keep the Rockies in the game. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 4.04 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in 11 starts as compared to his 5.80 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .335 opponent’s batting average on the road. In his last six starts at home, Senzatela has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The Rockies have won 10 of their last 12 home games in the second half of the season with Senzatela on the mound — and they have won 13 of their last 20 home games with Senzatela pitching as an underdog. He should pitch well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 Batting Average, .310 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .709 in their last seven games. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres did not commit an error over the weekend in their series with Arizona — but they have lost 12 of their last 18 road games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. Additionally, San Diego has lost 39 of their last 58 road games with the Total set at 11 or higher — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 road games when favored. They counter with Weathers who is 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 21 games this season which includes 15 starts. The left-hander has struggled as of late with a 10.80 ERA and a 2.31 WHIP in his last three starts. He also has a 5.01 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his 15 games and 11 starts under the lights at night. San Diego has lost 6 of their last 7 games in the second half of the season with Weathers making the start. He faces a Rockies team that scored 5.9 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .286 Batting Average, .344 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .832.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has won 7 of their last 10 games against San Diego — and they have won 4 straight games at Coors Field against the Padres. While the money-line is an option, I prefer taking the added insurance of the +1.5 Run-Line with it priced below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Colorado Rockies (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (955) listing both starting pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W0-D0-L0) looks to build on their sixth-place finish last season in the English Premier League. Newcastle (W0-D0-L0) finished last year in 12th place in the EPL, 17 points clear of relegation.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham concluded their EPL campaign last year by going unbeaten in four of their last five games. They scored six goals in their final two matches. The Hammers are much better when their striker Michail Antonio is healthy and leading their attack as he was at the end of last season. West Ham was sixth in the EPL last year with 37.2 expected goals (xG). The attack led by Antonio has been in good form in the preseason — they defeated a talented Atalanta side from Series A by a 2-0 score before blowing out Celtic from La Liga by a 6-2 margin. But the Hammers defense remains an issue under manager David Moyes. They have not had a clean sheet in their last seven road matches in league play — and they surrender eight goals in their last five EPL road contests. Newcastle won three of their last four games to safely avoid relegation last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive attack. Having a healthy Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin up top offers this team finishing talent. The Magpies scored ten goals in their final four league games. In their final 11 matches in the EPL, Newcastle was third in generating Big Scoring Chances (with a 35% or better chance of success) and fourth in expected goals. But defense is also an issue for this team. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 37.2 in the second half of the season was the fifth most. They also only had two clean sheets at home. That is not a good sign for a team that will have to use their third-string keeper in Freddie Woodman given injuries to their top-two keepers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 17th when Newcastle won by a 3-2 score. Expect another higher-scoring contest between these two teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after finishing in third place in the English Premier League last season. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) was promoted back to the English top-flight after winning the Championship League last season.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City was last in the EPL two years ago when they finished in last place with a mere 21 points in 38 matches. There was a clear talent disparity between the Canaries and even mid-table teams. Norwich City responded by winning the Championship League — but they were fortunate. While they allowed only 36 goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) rose to a 52.5 mark which was ninth-worst in the league. That team also had the services of Emi Buendia who scored 15 goals and added 17 assists. The midfielder transferred to Aston Villa last week as that team made moves to compensate for the loss of Jack Grealish who signed a big contract with Manchester City. The Canaries will miss the 3.1 chances per game that Buendia provided — he was involved in 43% of the goals they scored last season. To compound matters, manager Daniel Farke is dealing with a COVID outbreak in the locker room leaving the team undermanned for their return to the EPL. Liverpool is rested for this match with star players like Mo Salah and Sadio Mane not involved with summer competition with their national teams. Injuries on their backline held the Reds back last season. And don’t underestimate the impact the compacted schedule due to COVID had on this team after a two-year run of winning the English Premier League title and competing deep into two Champions League campaigns. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side ended strong by going unbeaten in their last ten matches — and they won their last five contests. Liverpool also grabbed 19 of the possible 21 points in their final seven road contests.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six trips to Carrow Road to play Norwich City. While I don’t usually like taking heavy road favorites in the EPL, the Reds enter this season with a chip on their shoulder. Rested and ready — with more talent and in better health — the Reds should roll. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Month with Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. THE SITUATION: Miami (47-67) has lost five games in a row with their 6-5 loss on the road to the Padres yesterday. San Diego (66-49) has won four straight games as well as six of their last eight.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing at least four games in a row. Miami has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Marlins have played 6 straight Overs on the road. They have also played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total as a money-line underdog. They give the ball to Alcantara who comes off his worst outing of the season where he was pummeled for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work at Colorado on August 6th. For the season, the right-hander has a 6-10 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 23 starts. While I would typically expect a bounce-back performance after such a disappointing showing, my optimism is tempered by the deeper sabermetrics. Alcantara’s SIERA and xFIP both call for some regression at 4.09 and 3.89. Alcantara has done his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .195 — but those numbers rise to a 4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .267 opponent’s batten average in his 12 starts on the road. Miami has played 5 straight Overs with Alcantara facing a team from the NL West. He faces a hot-hitting Padres team even without an injured Fernando Tatis as they are scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .293 Batting Average, .355 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .785. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Padres have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. San Diego has played 20 of their last 28 home games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5. range. They counter with Weathers who is 4-4 this season with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.88 moving forward. The left-hander has struggled at home where he has a 5.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304. in 38 innings. His teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with Weathers making the start. He faces a Marlins team that has played 4 straight road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in August — and San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in August. Lastly, the Over is 10-1-2 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams when playing in San Diego. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (901) and the San Diego Padres (902) listing both starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Ryan Weathers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zac Gallen. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (71-41) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last nine with their 5-4 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. Arizona (35-78) has lost two in a row and seven of their last nine contests after a 2-0 loss at San Diego on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Diamondbacks are a hot mess. They have lost 43 of their last 52 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game — and they have lost 21 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has lost 17 of their last 20 games after losing two in a row to a National League West rival. They managed only three hits on Sunday after scratching out just five hits in their loss on Saturday — and they have then lost 10 games in a row after not generating more than five hits in two straight games. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. And in their last 10 games after an off day, the Diamondbacks have lost 8 of these games. They stay on the road where they have lost 44 of their last 55 games with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. They have also lost 10 of their last 11 games at San Francisco against the Giants. They give the ball to Gallen who has a 1-6 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The right-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 5.10 and 1.40 marks in his six starts on the road. He has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in his last three starts — and he comes off a season-high 109 pitches in his last outing at home against the Giants last Wednesday. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 9 games with Gallen pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 in a row with Gallen pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. He will likely struggle against this Giants team that is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. They have won 39 of their last 55 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 22 of their last 32 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. San Francisco has won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 17 games after an off day. The Giants return home where they have won 39 of their last 54 home games when favored. They counter with Wood who has a 9-3 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 19 starts. The left-hander has had two subpar outings in a row but the deeper sabermetrics are still bullish with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.68 respectively. Wood has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in 11 starts as compared to his 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .277 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. San Francisco has won 12 of their last 15 games when priced as a money line favorite at -110 or higher with Wood on the mound — and they have won 8 of their last 10 games at home with him pitching as a -110 or higher favorite. He should pitch well against this slumping Diamondbacks team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .219 Batting Average, .286 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .590.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 34 of their last 44 losses when priced as a +145 or higher money-lien underdog this season. San Francisco has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of their 18 victories this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. With the Giants priced well above my -150 price threshold, let's lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Year with the San Francisco Giants (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Alex Wood and Zac Gallen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (903) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Zach Thompson. THE SITUATION: San Diego (64-49) has won four of their last six games after their 2-0 win against Arizona yesterday. Miami (47-65) has lost three straight games — and nine of their last twelve — after a 13-8 loss at Colorado yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 6 of their last 9 games after shutting out a divisional rival in their last game. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after playing a low-scoring game where no more than two combined runs were scored. The Padres have won 30 of their last 43 games at home in Petco Park. They turn to Musgrove tonight who has a 7-7 record along with a 2.87 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 21 starts (22 games). Musgrove is enjoying a big year due to his increased use of his cutter and slider which account for over half his pitches. He deployed those two pitches just 30.6% of the time last year. The lefty did hit a rough patch in July, but he appears to have righted the ship. In his last three starts, Musgrove has only allowed three earned runs — he has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP with 20 strikeouts in those 19 innings. Musgrove sees his ERA lower to 2.52 mark in his 11 starts at home in Petco — and the Padres have won 6 of their 8 home games with Musgrove pitching with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. He should have success tonight against this Marlins team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .230 batting average, .291 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .674. Miami is 24th in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage on the road against left-handed pitching. The Marlins have lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 17 of their last 22 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Miami has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. The Marlins stay on the road where they have lost 37 of their last 53 games — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 road games as a money-line underdog. They counter with Thompson who is 2-4 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in nine starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.22 and 4.17 moving forward. It has been a surprising season for the 27-year-old journeyman who was drafted in the fifth round in 2014. He is wildly overperforming his career 4.11 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in the minor leagues. The regression may already be coming with his velocity down 1.5 miles-per-hour in his last start. In his last three starts, he has a 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Miami has lost 7 of their 8 games this season with Thompson pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a Padres team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .276 batting average, .340 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .766. San Diego has won 19 of their last 28 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Padres will be motivated tonight with the memory of losing their last two games to the Marlins in Miami on July 24th and 25th. San Diego has won 4 straight games when playing with double revenge.

FINAL TAKE: The Padres have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 26 of their 32 victories this season when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. Miami has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 15 of their 20 losses this season when priced as a +145 or higher money-line underdog. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Year with the  San Diego Padres (904) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (903) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Zach Thompson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (979) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zach Davies. THE SITUATION: The White Sox (65-46) has won the first two games in this series and four of their last six after their 4-0 viceroy over the Cubs yesterday. The Cubs (52-60) have lost three in a row and five of their last six contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The White Sox have won 11 of their last 13 games on the road in August going back to last season. They have won a decisive 40 of their last 57 road games when favored — and they have won 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Cease who has an 8-6 record with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 22 starts this season. He comes off six shutout innings in his last outing against Kansas City where he struck out 11 batters last Tuesday. The sabermetrics are bullish on the right-hander with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.68 and 3.85 moving forward. The White Sox have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Cease pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Cubs team that scores only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers with a .216 batting average, .284 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .660. The Cubs have lost 5 in a row at home against right-handed starting pitchers. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 games after dropping the first two games of a series. The Cubs have lost 5 games in a row at home — and they have lost four in a row as a home underdog. They counter with Davies who has a 6-8 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in 23 games this season. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 5.58 and 5.24 respectively. His teams have lost 8 of their last 11 games when he is starting in games with the Total set at 10 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 22 of their 28 victories this season when a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their 25 wins this year when a money-line favorited priced at -160 or higher (as they are tonight). The Cubs have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 5 of their last 7 losses when priced at +145 or higher since mid-June. With the White Sox priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Sunday Night Television Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (979) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Chicago Cubs (980) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Zach Davies. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Carlos Hernandez. THE SITUATION: Chicago (63-44) has won three of their last four games with their 7-1 victory over the Royals last night. Kansas City (45-60) has lost four in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They have also won a decisive 50 of their last 68 home games when favored. The White Sox were big winners at the trade deadline as they addressed their two biggest needs at second base and in the bullpen. Chicago acquired Cesar Hernandez to be their new second baseman — and they added both Ryan Tepura and then Craig Kimbrell to bolster a pen that already had Liam Hendricks successfully closing games. They also recently got back slugger Eloy Jimenez back from the disabled list after he was out for the entire first half of the season. They send out Giolito for this contest. The right-hander has an 8-7 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 21 starts. Strangely, he has struggled against the Detroit Tigers this season as they have owned him with 16 runs scored in the 24 2/3 innings he has pitched against them in five starts. Take away the Tigers and Giolito has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his 16 other starts. In his 10 starts at home. Giolito has a 3.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .197. And in his 11 starts at night, he has a 2.60 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191. He should have success against the Royals who are scoring only 2.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .182 batting average, .221 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .530 during that span. They are also just 27th in the MLB in a weighted On-Base Percentage of .279 on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 51 games after a loss — and they have lost 22 of their last 27 games after losing at least three in a row. They have only scored two runs in their last three games — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. Additionally, the Royals have lost 37 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They counter with Carlos Hernandez who is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 34 1/3 innings this season. In his 11 innings on the road, the lefty has a 6.55 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He faces a White Sox team that scores 5.5 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .260 batting average, .333 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .767 this season. Chicago has won 35 of their last 46 games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 20 of their 26 victories this season when a money-line favorite priced at -155 or higher. The Royals have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 14 of their 20 losses this season when priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (974) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Kansas City Royals (973) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Carlos Hernandez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Mexico (234201) minus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — so that was a big triumph for the United States. The top-ten players from that roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been pretty good in this tournament — with the benefit of playing on home soil. But they were shaky against Qatar on Thursday. The Maroon dominated play for much of that game while outshooting the Yanks by an 18-6 margin. It was a goal from Gyasi Zardes in the 86th minute to win that match. Six of the Americans’ ten goals were against Martinique, the minnows of this tournament. Winning this event will be icing on the cake for Berhalter. For this Mexico team, manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has described winning this tournament as “an obligation” given the level of excitement in the country. While El Tri does not have some of their top players like Chicharito Hernandez and Raul Jimenez are not on this roster, Martino probably has assembled the B+ team to defend their 2019 Gold Cup title. Since the loss to the Americans in June, El Tri did not concede a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.

FINAL TAKE: This match will be played in Las Vegas at the new Allegiant Stadium — but the USMNT will not retain a familiarity edge since none of them have ever played on that pitch. I am not sure if the crowd advantage will be overwhelmingly pro-USA either with many fans expected to cheer for Mexico. The El Tri roster is more experienced and more talented than what the Yanks have in this tournament. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Mexico (234201) minibus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (51-51) begins this series coming off an 11-8 victory against Washington yesterday. Pittsburgh (38-63) has lost four games in a row after a 12-0 loss to Milwaukee yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs in the opening game of a new series. They send out Velasquez who is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 16 starts (20 games). The right-hander particularly struggles on the road where he has a 6.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 35 innings. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Velasquez pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Philadelphia has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total when favored. Velasquez faces a Pirates team that has played 7 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 18-7-2 in the Pirates’ last 27 games after a loss. Furthermore, the Over is 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games at home. They counter with Crowe who is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 14 starts (15 games). The right-hander sees his WHIP rise to a 1.66 mark in his seven starts at home due in part to an opponent’s batting average of .281. His teams have played 7 straight Overs when Crowe is making a starting in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting better as of late — they have a .259 Batting Average with a .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .810 in their last seven games. The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Freeland. THE SITUATION: San Diego (59-45) has lost three of their last four games after their 10-4 loss to Oakland yesterday. Colorado (44-58) has lost four of their last five games after their 8-7 loss at Los Angeles against the Angels yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Diego has won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six or more runs — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Padres have still won 26 of their last 36 games at home. They give the ball to Musgrove who is 6-7 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 19 starts (20 games). The left-hander sees his ERA drop to a 2.83 mark in his ten starts at home in Petco Park. San Diego has won 5 of their 7 games at home this season with Musgrove pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He should thrive against this Rockies team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game away from Coors Field with a .210 Batting Average, .278 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .601. Colorado has lost 28 of their last 33 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rockies have also lost 13 of their last 15 games after a loss by just one run — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Colorado has played three straight Overs — but they have lost 20 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They give the ball to Freeland who has a 1-5 record along with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 11 starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 5.10 mark in his six starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 18 of their last 22 games with Freeland pitching as a road dog.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego has covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 9 victories when priced higher than -150 — and Colorado has failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 6 of their last 8 losses when priced as an underdog at +145 or higher. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Diego Padres (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (961) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Freeland. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Let’s not read too much into the offensive assault by El Tri against a La Selecta side that was missing a handful of players (including a few starters) from a COVID outbreak. El Tri has struggled to generate goals in this tournament with only four goals in their three Group Stage matches — including three goals against a Guatemala side that was one of the minnows in this tournament. Scoring looked to be the biggest challenge for manager Gerardo Martino’s side with Raul Jimenez training for his return to Wolverhampton in the English Premier League. Martino could have turned to Javier Hernandez — but his ongoing personal feud with Chicharito appears to have played a role in the 33-year old not being invited to compete. Perhaps Martino wanted to use this event to embrace his younger players? But the plan was thwarted somewhat in their opening when Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury. While the clinical scoring talent on this team is diminished, Mexico remains quite stout on defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. El Tri has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month. Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. Herdman is likely to engage in defensive tactics with the hopes of eking out a low-scoring match — and he would happily take his chances with penalty kicks to resolve the match.

FINAL TAKE: Canada had allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score goals — but none of those teams registered more than once including the United States. They held Costa Rica to just five shots with none on target in what was likely a harbinger as to how they will attempt to play this match given their injuries. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico (234524) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Matt Manning. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (42-58) has lost two games in a row after their 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday. Detroit (47-54) has lost three straight games after a 6-1 loss in Kansas City on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: It has been a disappointing season for Minnesota — but they have been playing better at home as of late. The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with losing records. Minnesota has also won 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They give the ball to Pineda who is 4-5 this season with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in nine starts as compared to his 4.42 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in four starts on the road. Pineda’s teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is attempting to stop a losing streak. Detroit has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Tigers have lost 10 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than one run in their last game. And Detroit has lost 19 of their last 28 games this season after losing three of their last four games. The Tigers were riding a seven-game winning streak before getting swept in their three-game series in Kansas City over the weekend. But all those seven games were at home — Detroit has lost 7 straight games on the road all by more than one run. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set at 10 or higher. They counter with Matt Manning who is 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in six starts. The right-hander has a bright future — but he is struggling at the major league level in his rookie season. His ERA skyrockets to an 8.56 mark in his three starts on the road. The Tigers have lost all 3 road games that Manning has started this season. He faces a Twins team scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is looking to avenge a 7-0 loss in Detroit last Sunday that completed their getting swept by the Tigers in Comerica Park. The Twins have won 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from getting shutout in a loss. With Minnesota priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment cost by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher twenty times this season — and only three times did they win by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Minnesota Twins (914) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Detroit Tigers (913) listing both starting pitchers Michael Pineda and Matt Manning. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W2-D0-L1) comes off a 1-0 loss to Costa Rica in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. The USMNT (W3-D0-L0) earned a perfect record in the Group Stage with their 1-0 win against Canada last Sunday. This match will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Stars and Stripes were not really tested before the match with Canada last week in this tournament. Haiti and Martinique were not competitive in the Group Stage. And while Team USA scored in the opening minute against the Canucks, they looked shaky on defense in the second half of that match. The Americans also lost a key member of their backline when captain Walker Zimmerman left the game in the first half with an injury that will keep him out the rest of the tournament. Zimmerman was the 2020 MLS Defensive Player of the Year — so his absence is a big loss. Manager Gregg Berhalter was already relying on younger players for this event with the key players from the group that won the CONCACAF Nations League title last month now training for their professional leagues in Europe. This is a B team competing for the Gold Cup — there is no Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Zack Stefan, and Josh Sargent on this roster. The top ten players on the roster, as rated by the transfer market analytics, are not playing in this event. Team chemistry and cohesion — as well as experience in international competitions — remain question marks. Jamaica has an experienced roster made up of a core of players that have reached three straight Semifinals in the Gold Cup. While they lost their last match to Costa Rica last week, manager Theodore Whitmore was able to rest players since they had already qualified for the Knockout Stage. The Reggae Boyz get Bobby Reid back for this match after being on the COVID list — he has recent English Premier League experience. Wing Leon Bailey plays for Bayer Leverkusen. Forward Corey Burke, defenseman Alvas Powell, and keeper Andre Blake all star for Philadelphia Union in the MLS.

FINAL TAKE: Jamaica will be confident they can pull the upset against this roster of Americans after their recent experiences against them in this tournament. They lost to the Stars and Stripes by a 3-1 score in the 2019 Gold Cup Semifinals only after Pulisic scored his second goal in the 87th minute. Pulisic is not playing today. The Reggae Boyz lost to the USMNT in the 2017 Semifinals by just a 2-1 score —and they upset them in the 2015 Gold Cup Semifinals by a 2-1 score. They may not win, but they should keep it close with extra time a distinct possibility. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (980) versus the Chicago White Sox (979) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-41) has won five of their last seven games after their 6-1 victory against the White Sox last night. Chicago has lost three in a row including the first two games of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee has won 26 of their last 33 games after a win — and they have won 23 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers have also won 21 of their last 26 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 5 in a row against teams with a winning record. They send out Woodruff who is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 19 starts. Milwaukee has won 15 of their last 17 home games with Woodruff pitching at night. He should fare well against this White Sox team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .211 Batting Average, .276 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .675 in those games. Chicago has lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have also lost 37 of their last 51 road games as an underdog — and they have lost 23 of their last 31 games on the road in Interleague play. Chicago has lost 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lance Lynn who is 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts this season. While the right-hander has been almost unhittable at home with a 1.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .169 in 11 starts, those numbers rise to a 2.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .228 in six starts on the road. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.82 and 3.97 moving forward this season. And while he has not allowed more than one earned run in four straight starts, his teams have lost 10 of their last 12 games when Lynn is pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in two straight starts.

FINAL TAKE: The Brewers are swinging hot bats as they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .271 batting average, .350 On-Baser Percentage, and an OPS of .779. Milwaukee has won 16 of their last 21 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (980) versus the Chicago White Sox (979) listing both starting pitchers Brandon Woodruff and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jake Woodford. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (50-47) has won two of their last three games after their 6-5 victory over the Cardinals yesterday. St. Louis (49-49) had won five of their last six games before their loss last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Cincinnati has won 13 of their last 16 games at home — and they have won 24 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Castillo who is 3-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. The sabermetrics have been calling for regression after a disastrous start to the season. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 moving forward. Over his last seven starts, Castillo has a 1.41 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings. He has struck out 44 batters over that span. He should continue to pitch well against this Cardinals team that scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .220 Batting Average, .285 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .669. St. Louis has lost 12 of their last 15 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. St. Louis has lost 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also lost 15 of their last 20 games on the road. They counter with Woodford making his third career start tonight. The right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 31 innings this season. His ERA rises to a 4.76 ERA in his 17 innings on the road. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.63 and 5.00 respectively moving forward.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati scores 5.4 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .257 Batting Average, .331 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .779. The Reds have won 17 of their last 25 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. With Cincinnati priced above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price by taking the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line of the Month with the Cincinnati Reds (908) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the St. Louis Cardinals (907) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jake Woodford. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (61-35) has won three of their last four games with their 5-3 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Dodgers last night. Pittsburgh (36-60) has lost four games in a row after a 6-4 loss at Arizona on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco was a +155 money-line underdog last night with their upset win against the Dodgers. The Giants have won 7 of their last 9 games after pulling off an upset victory against a divisional rival priced at +130 or higher. San Francisco has also won 15 of their last 20 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home where they have won 38 of their last 55 games — and they have won 30 of their last 43 home games with the total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Cueto who is 6-5 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has done his better pitching at home where he has a 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .254 in eight starts as compared to his 5.09 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .321. The Giants have won 7 of their last 9 home games with Cueto pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. He should pitch well against this Pirates team that scores only 3.2 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 Batting Average, .293 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .652. Pittsburgh has lost 30 of their last 36 games after losing at least four games in a row. Additionally, the Pirates have lost 63 of their last 85 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They counter with Kuhl who has a 3-5 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetrics suggest those numbers are fortunate since both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.46 and 5.33 moving forward. The right-hander pitches better at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in five starts — but his ERA rises to a 6.07 mark along with a 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in 7 starts on the road. The Pirates have lost 20 of their last 25 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is scoring 5.2 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .254 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .787. The Giants have won 22 of their last 30 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. With the price above my -150 price threshold, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with San Francisco Giants (960) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (959) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael Pineda. THE SITUATION: Chicago (58-37) has won four of their last five games with their 9-5 win against the Twins last night. Minnesota (40-55) has lost five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago rallied from a 5-4 deficit in the bottom of the eighth inning to win last night’s game. The White Sox should build off that momentum as they have won 10 of their last 13 games after a loss. Additionally, Chicago has won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The White Sox have won a decisive 47 of their last 63 home games when favored — and they have won 21 of their last 29 home games played at night. They give the ball to Cease who is 7-5 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in 19 starts. The sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.74 and 3.92 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective at night where he owns a 2.15 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .199 in nine starts. The White Sox have won 7 of their last 8 games at home with Cease pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should pitch well against this Twins team that is scoring 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 Batting Average, .309 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .700. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have lost 12 of their last 13 games after a game where their bullpen surrendered at least five runs. Minnesota has also lost 8 of their last 11 games after a loss — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games after losing at least four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Twins have lost 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Pineda who is 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 12 starts. The sabermetics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.29 moving forward. The Regression Gods may have already appeared since he has been saddled with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in his last four starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in three starts. He pitches for the first time since July 7th — and his teams have lost 10 of their last 14 games when he is pitching with at least seven days between starts. The Twins have lost 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have lost 24 of their last 33 road games as an underdog. Minnesota has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 9 of their last 10 games in Chicago against the White Sox.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .800 OPS over that span. The White Sox have won 8 of their last 10 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (972) versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael Pineda. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-28) has lost three games in a row in this series after their 123-119 upset loss at home to Milwaukee as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Milwaukee (61-33) can win the NBA Championship tonight with their 3-2 series lead.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The high-scoring game I expected for Game Four was a game late. The Suns not only blew a 16-point lead at the end of the first quarter but also a 55.2% clip from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They made 13 of their 19 shots from behind the arc for a 68% shooting percentage of their 3s. But Phoenix allowed Milwaukee to make 57.5% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 25 games. Chris Paul declared after their Game One victory that they want to play with pace in this series. In hindsight, that appears to be a mistake. The Bucks are winning this series with rebounding and transition points — and more possessions fuel that edge for them. I will not be surprised if the Suns look to slow the pace of this game down to take the advantage of the veteran leadership Paul provides them in close games. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They go back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee’s 57.5% shooting from the field was the best shooting effort in their last 87 contests going all the way back to January 4th. It was the second-best offensive performance of the season. They nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc. I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods — especially with the pressure of closing out the series to win the title. These Game Sixes are tricky for a home team with a 3-2 series lead. While they have a bird in the hand on a potental seventh game, there often is stress and anxiety of feeling the urgency to end things in front of their home fans. The Bucks should play better on defense after letting Phoenix make more than 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played all 3 games Under the Total this season after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. The Under is also 4-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home where the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA Tuesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (511) and the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Boston (56-37) has lost five of their last seven games after a 3-1 loss to the Yankees in a rain-shortened six-inning game yesterday. New York (47-44) has won six of its last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, Boston has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 6 games on the road. Martin Perez makes the start with his 7-5 record along with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts. The left-hander struggles at home at Fenway Park with the Green Monster where he has a 5.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .326. But when Perez pitches on the road, he has a 2.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238 in 7 starts. His teams have played 9 straight Unders when he is pitching on the road priced in the +125 to -125 price range. He faces a depleted Yankees’ lineup hit by COVID that has Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela — and Luke Voit hit the disabled list earlier this week with a knee injury. New York is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .204 batting average, .287 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .627. New York has played two straight Unders — and they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Yankees bullpen got yesterday off with Gerrit Cole pitching all six innings — and they pitched only three innings on Friday. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when their bullpen has not pitched more than three innings in two straight games. They counter with Taillon who is 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been much better at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .223 opponent’s batting average in 10 starts as opposed to his 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .298 opponent’s batting average on the road. His teams have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when he is pitching as a favorite priced up to -150. He faces a Red Sox team that is scoring only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .238 batting average, .308 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .731. Boston has managed only five hits in each of their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not generating more than five base hits in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has played 5 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams from the AL East — and the Yankees have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Yankee Stadium. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (927) and the New York Yankees (928) listing both starting pitchers Martin Perez and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (60-33) has won the last two games of this series to even things at 2-2 after their 109-103 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (65-27) has lost four of their last eight games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks rallied to win Game Four despite allowing the Suns to make 51.3% of their shots. That was the worst defensive effort in Milwaukee’s last 15 games. The Bucks neutralized Phoenix’s shooting edge by creating more scoring opportunities from offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Milwaukee held a +12 edge in turnovers by forcing 17 turnovers and only coughing the ball up five times. The Bucks have played 4 straight Unders after having a turnover edge of +10 or better in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. Now Milwaukee goes on the road where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Bucks’ last 14 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games overall. Phoenix lost Game Four despite that 51.3% field goal percentage which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Phoenix did not cover the point spread in their last two losses in Milwaukee. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: I thought both teams would enjoy sharp offensive games in Game Four — and I was wrong on that front. The Suns’ 51.3% shooting percentage disguised their weak 7 of 23 (30%) clip from behind the arc. Milwaukee made only 40.2% of their shots — but they were saved by Phoenix being sloppy with the basketball and too often playing out of control. The Suns were simply playing too fast — and their likely correction to limit the turnovers that killed them is to slow the pace. With the winner of Game Five seizing control of the series, I expect teams to be nervy. The Bucks have played 4 of their last 5 Game Fives Under the Total. With the number still in the high-210s, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (509) and the Phoenix Suns (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (915) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (916) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: Chicago (44-46) lost two of their last three games of the All-Star Break after a 6-0 loss to St. Louis last Sunday. Arizona (26-66) lost three of their last four games heading into the break coming off a 7-4 loss at Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games after an off day. They begin the second half of the season on the road where they have won 4 of their last 5 games when favored. The Cubs have won 19 of their last 28 games when favored, in general — and they have won 4 straight games against opponents that are not winning more than 40% of their games. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 11-4 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander struggled in April where he was 1-3 with a 7.54 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP — but he has been lights out since. Since the beginning of May, Hendricks has a 2.73 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 82 1/3 innings of work while issuing just 12 bases on balls. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.62 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eight starts. The Cubs have won 4 straight road games with Hendricks pitching as a favorite. He should thrive against a Diamondbacks team that has scored only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .221 batting average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .645 during that span. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 23 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 of their last 6 games after an off-day. Arizona has also lost 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new series. The Diamondbacks have lost 20 of their last 26 games at home. They counter with Bumgarner who is returning to action after being on the disabled list since the beginning of June. The left-hander is 4-5 this season with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 12 starts. I worry about his return to action after shoulder issues. I also am concerned about how effective he will be without the use of foreign substances. Bumgarner has struggled for a year and a half before suddenly seeing a significant bump in his spin rate which helped him earn that seven-inning no-hitter in May. As it is, he has struggled at home where he has a 7.15 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .301 in five starts. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 home games with Bumgardner pitching as a money-line underdog priced at +125 to +175. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .276 batting average, .327 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .734 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has lost 48 of their last 54 games as a money-line underdog. With the Cubs priced at or below my -150 price threshold, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (915) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (916) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.

FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (65-26) looks to bounce-back from their 120-100 loss on the road to the Bucks as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Milwaukee (59-33) has three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns scored their fewest points on Sunday in their last five games. After scoring 102 points in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers, they responded by scoring 130 to close out that series in Game Six. Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to make only two of their 11 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. Phoenix has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Paul commented after Game One that his team wants to push the pace — and they should be rested with the extra day off between games. The Over is 47-23-1 Phoenix’s last 71 games when playing with two days of rest. Furthermore, the Over is 12-5-1 in the Suns’ last 18 games on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Phoenix has also played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when the Total is set at 220 or higher. Milwaukee has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win on their home court — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win at by double-digits. Returning home was what the Bucks players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo needed to jump-start their shooting. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to make 14 of their 28 shots including 8 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. The Over is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last 4 games at home against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Over is also 16-4-2 in the Bucks’ last 22 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 straight Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 20 or more points. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and I expect this to be the wildest game yet in this series since it remains critical for the Bucks to win the game. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (507) and the Milwaukee Bucks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-33) returns home down 0-2 in this series after losing Game Two by a 118-108 score as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (65-25) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee only made 45.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks made only 9 of their 31 shots from behind the arc. Now Milwaukee returns home where they are making 48.6% of their shots including 38.2% of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday struggled in Game Two as they combined to make only 12 of their 37 shots from the field. Both players — along with the Bucks’ role players — usually play better back on their home court. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. The Bucks have played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least four straight games Over the Total. Milwaukee returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 home games with the Total set in the 220s. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Phoenix made 48.9% of their shots in Game Two — but it was their nailing 20 of their 40 shots from behind the arc that really made the difference. The Suns have an effective field goal percentage of 57.3% in this series — and they are outperforming their expected effective field goal percentage of 53.2% in the first two games. The Regression Gods should make an appearance to level things out a bit. Phoenix has covered the point spread in three straight games going back to their Game Six win to close out the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while Phoenix has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: I have seen some analytics that projected that Milwaukee should have won Game Two by a 116-104 score based on expected points from the shot quality of both teams. While I take that data with a grain of salt, we are going to win more of our bets than we lose in the long run when we are on the right side of that data. The Bucks are in this series — and they should have more of their shots fall (while seeing more of the Suns' shots not fall). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 third games in an NBA playoff series under Mike Budenholzer. 25* NBA Sunday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Erick Fedde. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (56-32) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight after their 10-4 win against the Nationals yesterday. Washington (42-46) has lost three straight games and eight of their last ten.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco should build off their momentum to close out the first half of the regular season before the All-Star Break. They have won 12 of their last 15 games after a win — and they have won 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Giants have won 37 of their last 51 home games when favored. They give the ball to Gausman who has an 8-3 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has a microscopic 0.60 WHIP in six home starts fueled by an opponent’s batting average of .124. San Francisco has won 7 of their last 9 games with Gausman pitching in a day game. He should fare well against this Nationals team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Washington has lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Fedde who is 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 12 starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.65 mark in his six starts on the road. The Nationals have lost 6 of their last 9 games with Fedde pitching with the Total set from 7 to 8.5. He will likely struggle against a Giants team that has won 21 of their last 29 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco is scoring 5.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .280 batting average, .364 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .825. Washington has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has not lost by a run in sixteen straight games when a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher. San Francisco has won by only one run in four of their last seventeen games when priced as a money-line favorite at -155 or higher. If we like the Giants in this game (and we do), then let’s lower the investment price. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line of the Year with San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (909) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Erick Fedde. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.

REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. And while Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going, they have generated 2.24 expected goals per match in their three Knockout Stage matches. Italy was outplayed by Spain according to the analytics with them losing the expected goals battle by a 1.74-0.78 xG margin. La Roja exposed a vulnerability of the Azzurri down the middle with their savvy veteran pair of center backs Leonardi Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini being talented but both have lost a step or two. England has better finishing talent at forward with the likes of Harry Kane and the in-form Raheem Sterling (amongst an embarrassment of riches of talent). Italy was outstanding in the Group Stage — but they did benefit from a weak trio of competitors in Turkey, Wales, and a solid but unspectacular Switzerland side. They needed extra time against Austria before catching a break against Belgium in the Quarterfinals with them playing with Eden Hazard. Italy is also without left back Leonardo Spinazzola who suffered a ruptured Achilles against Belgium. Not only does Spinazzola important to their backline, but he played an important role in the Italian attack as a left wing.

FINAL TAKE: England has the advantage playing on their home soil — so they have a familiarity edge along with the home crowd and referees responding to the cheering fans. Ultimately, the talent on England’s roster is superior to that of Italy. The English Premier League outshines Serie A currently. And the Three Lions have been building to this moment since their Round of 16 finish in the 2016 Euro before reaching the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. Italy failed to qualify for the most recent World Cup. 25* Euro 2020 Match of the Year with England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (54-35) has lost four of their last five games after losing to the Diamondbacks by a 5-2 score in the opening game of this series. Arizona (26-64) has won three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has won 42 of their last 60 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Dodgers have also won 40 of their last 51 games against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. They send out Buehler who is 8-1 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in 17 starts. Buehler has been an effective stopper for the team as they have won 19 of their last 25 games with him mound looking to stop a losing streak. The Dodgers have also won 31 of their last 45 games with Buehler pitching as a home favorite. Break up Arizona! Their three wins in their last four games match the three wins they picked up in their previous 31 games. The Diamondbacks have lost 8 of their last 9 games after a win — and they have lost 4 straight games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Arizona has also lost 20 of their last 26 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Smith who is 2-5 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 70 1/3 innings. The deeper metrics are not as bullish on Smith who both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.84 moving forward. The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of their last 12 games with Smith pitching with the Total set at 8 or 8.5. Arizona has lost 46 of their last 52 games as an underdog — and they have lost 56 of their last 74 road games as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers priced in the -300 range, they are well beyond my -150 price threshold. LA has been priced above -150 58 times this season. They have lost 21 of these games straight-up. But while they have won 37 of those games, 29 of those victories were by more than one run. So, if the Dodgers are going to win, they are going to win by more than one run — a 78.3% clip — at a much lower price. Arizona has been a money line underdog priced at +145 or higher 39 times — and they have lost by more than one run in 24 of those occasions for a 61.5% clip. They pulled the upset six times and lost by one run another nine times. Let’s bank on Buehler. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break NL West Run-Line of the Year with Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (961) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Caleb Smith. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.

FINAL TAKE:  While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. THE SITUATION: New York (95-42) won the opening game of this series last night with a 4-0 victory. Houston has a two-game losing streak after winning their previous six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. New York has also won 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total on the road after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, New York has won 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Cole gets the start with his 8-4 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 17 starts. But the right-hander has struggled since MLB cracked down on the use of illegal substances. Cole’s spin rate is way down — and so are his numbers. In his last six starts since the start of June, Cole has a 5.00 ERA with only 38 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. And his teams have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when he is pitching in July. Houston has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Astros score 5.5 Runs-Per-Game with a .276 batting average, a .386 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .813. Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have played 6 straight Overs after playing at least three straight Unders. Houston has played 25 of their last 35 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Greinke who is 8-2 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home in Minute Maid Park where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .296 opponent’s batting average. The Astros have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with Greinke on the hill — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with Greinke pitching at night. He faces a Yankees team that is scoring 4.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Astros have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (975) and the Houston Astros (976) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (58-32) looks to bounce back from their 118-105 loss on the road to the Suns as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Phoenix (64-25) has won three of their last four games to take a 1-0 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: If there was a plus-side to Milwaukee’s 11-point loss, it was the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who played 35 minutes and scored 20 points with 17 rebounds. The Bucks made only 45.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They also allowed Phoenix to make 46.6% of their shots, the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. Even worse, the Suns generated an Offensive Rating of 118.0 in that game which was the fourth-highest opponent’s Offensive Rating Milwaukee has allowed in this postseason. Mike Budenholzer is every pundit’s whipping boy for not making the adjustments they see (or not doing it quick enough) — but the benefit of a seven-game playoff series is to experiment with different defensive schemes. What the Bucks’ pick-and-roll defense places as their top priority is not foul — not only to protect Antetokounmpo to keep him on the court but to also not give up easy free throws. This consideration is rarely mentioned by the ankle-biters. Budenholzer may be content to let Chris Paul once again settle for mid-range jumpers — the shot that these same-ankle bitters consider the worst shot in basketball since it is not a 3-pointer nor a high-percentage shot at the rim. Or, Budenholzer may have defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday play against Paul rather than Devin Booker in Game One. Or, Budenholzer may go back to the drop defense against the pick-and-roll with Brook Lopez playing a little bit higher up the court to challenge the mid-range shot — this was very effective against Trae Young after Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals. I am not sure what Budenholzer will do while acknowledging that he is a far better defensive coach than me (and his critics). Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Milwaukee should commit fewer personal fouls tonight — the Suns got to the free-throw line 26 times and made 25 of those shots from the charity stripe. The Bucks’ opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 16.3% is the lowest in the NBA. Phoenix generated a 29.6% FTA: FGA ratio in Game One — and they average 19 free throw attempts per game. The Suns will not likely have a +16 point edge from the free-throw line tonight. The Suns have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after playing at least three straight Overs. Having Holiday defend Paul may be the preferred adjustment for Budenholzer since Booker’s play has declined a bit as the postseason has moved on. The young star is averaging 23.3 PPG on just 35% shooting from the field and a 22% mark from behind the arc in his last six games. He is averaging 4.3 turnovers per game during that span. Booker’s challenge in this series is heightened with him having to defend either Khris Middleton or Holiday. The season-ending torn ACL injury to Dario Saric leaves the Suns a man-short moving forward. Deandre Ayton cannot play 48 minutes. He will be subbed for either Torrey Craig or Frank Kaminsky, but both present problems for head coach Monty Williams. Craig has played 199 minutes in the playoffs with an On/Off Differential of -12.4. The Suns were outscored by 10 points when he was on the court for Game One. Kaminsky has only played 29 minutes in the playoffs while posting a -3.5 On/Off Differential. Phoenix outscored their opponents by +14.1 points per 100 possessions with Saric on the court this season. He will be missed.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 Games Twos in the NBA playoffs under Budenholzer. 25* NBA Thursday Night Special Feature with Milwaukee Bucks (503) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (977) listing both starting pitchers Justus Sheffield and Jameson Taillon. THE SITUATION: Seattle (45-40) has won four of their last five games after their 4-1 win against the Rangers on Sunday. New York (42-41) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory at home against the Mets on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle has won 11 of their last 15 games after winning four of their last five games. The Mariners have won 7 of their last 9 games at home —and they have pulled an upset in 10 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. Seattle has won 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They send out Sheffield who is 5-7 with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP in 14 starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. While those numbers are not great — the Mariners have won 12 of their last 17 home games with Sheffield on the mound. He faces a Yankees team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 5 of their last 7 games played after an off-day — and they have lost 5 openers to a new series. The Yankees have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. They counter with Taillon who is 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home in Yankee Stadium where he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .223. But his five starts on the road, he has been hammered for an ERA of 11.12, a 2.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .385. The Yankees have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Taillon on the hill.

FINAL TAKE: Taking the Mariners as a money-line underdog is a viable option, but I prefer taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line since it is priced at below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Tuesday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with Seattle Mariners (978) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (977) listing both starting pitchers Justus Sheffield and Jameson Taillon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (63-25) comes off a 130-103 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday to win that series in six games. Milwaukee (58-31) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 118-107 upset win in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday to close out that series in six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix should build off their momentum rested and ready on their home court. The Suns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Phoenix is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a double-digit win against a fellow Pacific Division rival. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with at least three days of rest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 50 games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Suns have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 home games when favored by up to six points. Milwaukee may not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for this game although he has been upgraded to questionable with the knee injury that kept him out of the final two games of that series. The Bucks won both games without Antetokounmpo — but this team could be in for a letdown now. Getting only two days of rest against a team with three extra days to rest and recuperate does not help — and the league did them no favors by moving the start of this series up two days. As it is, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after winning two in a row. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. They are also 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 playoff games as an underdog. And in their last 14 opening games to a new playoff series when playing on the road, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 19th in Milwaukee with Phoenix upsetting the Bucks, 128-127, as a 3-point underdog. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Tuesday Night Special Feature with the Phoenix Suns (502) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D1-L0) has won four straight matches with their 3-0 victory against Ecuador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. Colombia (W2-D1-L2) outlasted Uruguay by a 4-2 count in the penalty kick shootout after a scoreless match after regulation time in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE ARGENTINA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia pulled a surprising upset against Uruguay — but they are underachieving in this tournament. They limped into this tournament with two losses in World Cup qualifying matches — and they have now only won three of their last seven matches. They lost to Peru and settled for a scoreless draw against Venezuela in matches they were favored to win. They have only scored three times in their five matches. The starting XI missed their star midfielder James Rodriguez after he was left off the roster because of the calf injury that kept him out of the last two matches for Everton in the English Premier League. They managed only 0.61 expected goals against Uruguay on Saturday. They only generated 0.29 expected goals in their final Group Stage match against Brazil. Argentina is rounding into form with seven goals in their last two matches while allowing just one goal. Lionel Messi has scored four goals and assisted on four other goals in his five matches in this tournament. La Albiceleste has scored 10 times while conceding just twice — and they notched an impressive clean sheet against Uruguay, who is probably the third-best team in the tournament.

FINAL TAKE: Messi has still not led Argentina to a major championship — so he should be very motivated to lead his team to a title match with Brazil. 25* Copa America Semifinals Match of the Year with Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (50-20-6) took a commanding 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with their 6-3 victory. Montreal (36-28-12) hosts this game looking to avoid a sweep and force a fifth game back in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I passed on the side play in Game Three and used that contest as a “wait and see” opportunity for Game Four. Montreal needed Game Three — and they were simply dominated. The Canadiens’ game is dependent on scoring first where they can then play defensively and lean on goalie Carey Price. They are 11-2 in the postseason when scoring first — but they have lost 6 of their 7 games when their opponent scores first. Montreal was trailing 2-0 in this crucial Game Three less than 3:30 minutes into the first period. The Canadiens are getting outplayed — and they have been outscored by a 14-5 goal margin. But the biggest difference has been the decline of play in Price. After the veteran goaltender has carried his team in the first three rounds of the playoffs, Price has not played well at all in this series. Besides allowing 13 goals, in the first three games of this series, he has a -6.2 saves below the expected number for the average goalie. Price has a .835 save percentage in this series after posting a .931 save percentage in Round One, a .941 save percentage in Round Two, and then a .933 save percentage in Round Three against Vegas. Maybe Montreal is tired? Maybe they are simply facing a team that is better against them? Maybe both. But I do not see the Canadiens picking themselves off the mat tonight. Montreal has lost 4 straight games after allowing at least five goals in their last game — and they have lost 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game where at least nine combined goals were scored. They surrendered two goals in the third period — and they have lost 16 of their last 25 games after allowing at least two goals in the third period. They are playing at home — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games at home on a three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay is 15-2 when they score first in these playoffs — and they have three lines that can score the first goal in this game against a goalie in Price that is now lacking in confidence. They are scoring 4.67 Goals-Per-Game in this series. The Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the better goaltender in this series — and the entire playoffs. He has a 1.67 Goals-Against-Average and a .948 save percentage in this series — and he has a 1.94 GAA and a .938 save percentage in the postseason overall. Tampa Bay has won 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have won 26 of their last 36 games in the playoffs when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Lightning have won 14 of their last 16 meetings against the Canadiens — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against them when playing in the Bell Centre in Montreal. Tampa Bay’s recent playoff experience should really help them tonight as they look to lift the Stanley Cup twice in a ten-month span. While there may be a fleeting thought about the positive benefit of losing this game to then win the Stanley Cup back at home in Game Five after not winning the Cup win fans in the stands last fall — but this is a too savvy a group to be foolish enough to give away games against a goaltender who can get on a hot streak again. 25* National Hockey League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (57-31) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 123-112 win at home against the Hawks as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Atlanta (51-38) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have played 29 of their last 45 games Under the Total on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Under is 5-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Atlanta has played 4 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Hawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 23-9-1 in the Hawks’ last 33 games in the playoffs as an underdog. Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (561) and the Atlanta Hawks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (51-38) looks to stave off elimination tonight after dropping Game Five in this series on the road against the Bucks by a 123-112 score as a 7-point favorite on Thursday. Milwaukee (57-31) has won three of the last four games in this series to take a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Trae Young is listed as questionable with the bone bruise in his foot — he is a game-time decision. I suspect he will try to play in this elimination game but expected him to be close to 100% is probably too optimistic. But his supporting cast should play better tonight. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in the last four games in this series, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 21 home games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games when favored. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been declared out for tonight’s game — so it will be Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday carrying the offensive load again tonight. They both had big offensive games — Middleton scored 26 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists and Holiday scored 25 points with 13 assists and six rebounds. Brook Lopez also had his best game in the series with 33 points on 14 of 18 shooting. It is unlikely these four players are as effective tonight — especially back on the road in Atlanta. The Bucks raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter by scoring 36 points. 28 of those points were in the paint with Milwaukee catching Atlanta too lax with their interior defense. The Hawks tightened up on defense after that. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning four of their last five contests. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when playing at home and avenging a double-digit loss. 10* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Atlanta Hawks (562) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (561). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.

REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had Sweden in that Round of 16 match with Ukraine. The Yellow-Blue took the lead with a goal from Oleksandr Zinchenko in the 27th minute before the Swedes tied the score 16 minutes later. Sweden outplayed Ukraine for most of the match but could not score the winning goal in regulation (ruining our play). But the Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. Rather fortunate, once again. Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third. England is loaded with talent. Manager Gareth Southgate has his team playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. And while the Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt, the highest mark of the eight teams in the quarterfinals. With wins over Germany, Croatia, and the Czech Republic, England has defeated three opponents that made the Knockout Stage and who would all probably defeat this Ukraine side.

FINAL TAKE: Take away the 21 minutes when they had the man advantage against Sweden along with their match against North Macedonia (perhaps the worst team in the tournament) — Ukraine has a -3.19 expected goal differential. They should finally get exposed this afternoon. 25* Euro 2020 ABC-TV Match of the Year with England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-31) looks to bounce back from their 110-88 upset loss on the road against the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Atlanta (51-37) had lost the previous two games in this series before Game Four.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a war of attrition between two flawed basketball teams now facing the challenge of adjusting to significant injuries. I waited for the early afternoon injury updates to make my final calls on this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo was declared out for tonight’s game at 1:30 PM ET with his sore left knee. Trae Young is questionable with the bone bruise in his right foot — he will be a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it remains a separate question as to how effective he will be if less than 100%. The injury updates are only half the news that interests me — how this impacts the line movement is the other important dynamic to consider. The line is stabilizing with the Bucks favored in the 3-point range — and I think they win this game comfortably by more than one scoring possession. The supporting cast for Milwaukee is better than the supporting cast of the Hawks. Frankly, Khris Middleton may be the team’s best player — or, at least, their most reliable player on the offensive end of the court. He only made 6 of 17 shots on Tuesday — including missing all seven of his 3-pointers — in scoring just 16 points. I’m not saying he is Michael Jordan circa 1993. I think the Bucks are a system team that is well-coached by Mike Budenholzer — and the ankle-biting critics of Budenholzer wildly overrate how good this team (and Antetokounmpo) is in the postseason. Simply put, Middleton and this Bucks team should play better at home — especially after their embarrassing effort on Tuesday. I still think they rally to win Game Four in the second half if not for the Antetokoumpo injury — he left in the third quarter when they had cut their halftime deficit to just 10 points. Milwaukee only made 39.3% of their shots in Game Four which was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. They only made 8 of their 30 shots (21%) of their shots from behind the arc. They should shoot better tonight — the Bucks shot 48.5% from the field on their home court with a 38.3% mark from behind the arc. Milwaukee should also tighten up on defense after allowing the Hawks to make 50.6% of their shots, the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Bucks have bounced back to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. Milwaukee has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 90 points. The last three games in this series have finished Under the Total — and the Bucks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after playing their last two games Under the Total. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. And Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning two of their last three games. Atlanta’s secondary players stepped up knowing they would have to be at their best to compensate for the absence of Young. Their 50.6% shooting effort was their best performance in 10 games. And by holding the Bucks to a 39.3% field goal percentage, they played their best defensive game in their last 11. I suspect that a short-term boost cannot be sustained. And even if Young returns to the court tonight and is close to 100%, I suspect the Hawks to be flat tonight — even (or especially) against a team without Antetokounmpo. We see situations like this all the time in the regular season. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog by 20 or more points. The injury issues for the Hawks do not end with Young. Clint Capela is questionable with an eye injury. And while Bogan Bogdanovich had his best game in his last seven contests after injuring his right knee by scoring 20 points, he had not scored more than nine points in his previous six games — so he may experience some regression tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Just as the remaining Atlanta players stepped up on Tuesday, I expect the remaining Milwaukee players to play better tonight — especially after being such a disappointment in Game Four. Like the Hawks knew they would be without Young in that game, the Bucks know the onus is on them with Antetokounmpo declared out hours before game-time. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532) in Game Six of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (62-25) looks to bounce back from their 116-102 upset loss to the Clippers as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (57-33) still faces elimination tonight, trailing 3-2 in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Phoenix allowed the Clippers to make 54.8% of their shots in Game Five which was the worst defensive effort in their last 21 games. The Suns have only suffered back-to-back losses four times all season — so a better effort should be coming tonight. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 10 or more points. They go back on the road where they have won five of their seven games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They should get more out of Deandre Ayton tonight after the big man only attempted nine shots on Monday. He had been averaging 20.3 Points-Per-Game in the first four games in this series while tallying at least 18 points and 13 shot attempts in all four games. The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the playoffs when favored. Los Angeles had their best shooting effort in their last five games with their 54.8% shooting percentage on Monday. But the Clippers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. We had the Clippers as an underdog in Game Five — but this remains a team dealing with more and more injuries. Losing Kawhi Leonard is very tough — and big man Ivica Zubac did not play due to a sprained MCL injury. He is questionable tonight. Paul George is carrying the team — but fatigue is becoming an issue. His 735 minutes played in the postseason are the most of any player in these playoffs. He logged in at least 40 minutes for the fourth straight time on Monday. Now Los Angeles returns home to the Staples Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when motivated by revenge. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (531) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (56-30) took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 win as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Atlanta (50-37) has lost the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks were cruising with a 95-88 lead with just 7:20 left in the game. But Atlanta would only score seven points the rest of the game with their offense almost completely drying up after Trae Young’s inopportune ankle injury after accidentally stepping on the foot of a referee. He is questionable to play tonight. While my best guess is that he tries to play, the mystery is how effective will he be? His game is dependent on his lateral movement. He only took four shots in the fourth quarter, making one, with just three points, and Milwaukee outscoring Atlanta by 15 points when he was on the court. He was merely a decoy in the waning minutes of the game — that speaks loudly. The Hawks are looking more and more like a M*A*S*H unit. They are already hampered by Bogdan Bogdanovic and his knee injury. After scoring 16.4 PPG with 5.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in the first nine playoff games this postseason, he has not scored more than nine points nor pulled down more than four rebounds in his last six playoff games. After making only 3 of 16 shots on Sunday, Bogdanovic has made only 7 of his 28 shot attempts in this series. Atlanta has averaged only 96.5 PPG in the last two games in this series. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Hawks have played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They stay on the road where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games when playing teams with a winning record at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has lost the last two games by 34 and 11 points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging two straight games by 10 or more points. These two teams have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Atlanta. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Atlanta Hawks (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W2-D1-L0) enters the Knockout Stage after their 3-2 win against Poland last Wednesday. Ukraine (W1-D0-L2) comes off a 1-0 loss to Austria eight days ago on June 21st. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland.

REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Sweden is solid if unspectacular. RB Leipzig midfielder Emil Forsberg is the real deal. The Blue and Yellow have two exciting young players in 17-year-old Alexander Isak and 20-year-old Dejan Kulusevski who play for Real Sociedad and Juventus. Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof is a quality center back. This is the Swedes’ sixth straight Euro. A scoreless draw with Spain is a quality result. Beating Slovakia and Poland are results much more impressive than a win against North Macedonia. This group has allowed only two goals in the Group Stage.

FINAL TAKE: The secret weapon of the Swedes in manager Janne Andersson who is on a five-year run with the national team including an improbable Quarterfinals run in the 2018 World Cup despite not having talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the squad. Sweden is a hotbed for soccer talent, and Andersson is a tactical wizard. The Blue and Yellow will outclass the Yellow-Blue. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Match of the Year with Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Five of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (56-33) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Four by an 84-80 score on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Phoenix (62-24) has won ten of their last eleven games to take the 3-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers only made 32.5% of their shots on Sunday — so was that an outlier or indicative of a downward trend? I suspect it is the latter. This Los Angeles team is tired — both physically from the every-other-day grind of the NBA playoffs and emotionally for having dug itself three straight 0-2 series holes. Without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George has taken the leadership role on offense — and he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game in the playoffs which is almost seven more minutes per game than his regular-season average. The Clippers are only making 34.8% of their 3-point shot attempts in this series, a far cry from their 41.8% clip during the regular season. Los Angeles has tired legs — and the Suns are forcing them to take more difficult shots from behind the arc. The Clippers have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home against a Pacific Division rival. The Under is also 13-6-1 in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LA has played 4 straight Unders after failing to crack 90 points in their last game. The Clippers are averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason — but they are down to just 109.4 points per 100 possessions against Phoenix. Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog — and the Under is 35-17-3 in their last 55 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Phoenix has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional rival. The Suns have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Phoenix only made 36.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 41 games. The Suns’ 84 points came after them scoring just 92 points in Game Three — so this looks to be more than just a bad shooting night. Devin Booker does not look comfortable wearing the face mask to protect his broken nose — and he may be tiring from the playoff grind in his first postseason as a professional. Chris Paul still looks rusty after being out with COVID. Cameron Payne is slowed with an ankle injury — he played only 20 minutes on Sunday and made only 2 of his 8 shots from the field. Phoenix returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The 164 combined points finished over 50 points below the 217.5 total set for Game Four. The empirical data suggests another lower-scoring game is coming. In games with the Total set at 210 or higher, when a team with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range faces a team with a winning record after a game that finished at least 36 points below the Total, this game finished Under the Total in 52 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (33-43) has lost five games in a row after their 4-1 loss to Texas yesterday. Boston (47-31) has won three in a row after their weekend sweep of the New York Yankees that culminated in a 9-2 victory yesterday afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox got their bats out yesterday with four home runs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after banging our four or more home runs in their last game. Boston has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where they scored at least eight runs. And in their last 11 games after winning two games in a row at home against AL East foes, they have played 10 of these games Over the Total. But the reason why the Total for this game has been bet up to 11 is due to the trials that Garrett Richards is experiencing without the benefit of his usual substances that help him grip the baseball. Without the ability to use sunscreen — something that Richards says he has been using since his rookie year — he cannot get the grip on his curveball. Richards has abandoned even using what has been his best pitch — and that leaves him as an unusable pitcher when he is dependent on his below-average four-seam fastball. Richards has a 4-5 record this season with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in 15 starts. In his last three starts since the MLB has cracked down on foreign substances like suntan lotion, Richards has an ugly 9.82 ERA and a 2.55 WHIP. Even without these new circumstances, Richards was a starting pitcher I was looking to fade. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.02 and 4.79 moving forward. And he has struggled at Fenway Park with a 6.46 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP along with a .333 opponent’s batting average in five starts. Boston has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in June with Richards starting. The Red Sox have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home with the Total set at 11 or higher. Kansas City scores 4.4 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 5-1-2 in their last 8 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have not hit a home run in four straight games — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not hitting a home run in two straight games. And while Kansas City has scored one run in their last two games, they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in two straight games. They counter with Danny Duffy who is 4-3 with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts (nine games). The veteran left-hander’s great start was interrupted by a left flexor strain that put him on the shelf for six weeks. He is being eased back into the rotation — so no more than 50 or 60 pitches from him are expected tonight. Even without taking into account his injury which may impact his effectiveness moving forward, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.65 and 3.84. The Royals bullpen will be asked to pitch at least half this game — and that group has a 6.60 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP in the last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .266 batting average, .320 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .756. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB American League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals (967) and the Boston Red Sox (968) listing both starting pitchers Danny Duffy and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (50-36) looks to bounce back from their 125-91 loss to the Bucks as an 8-point underdog in Game Two on Friday. Milwaukee (55-30) has won three of their last four games and evened this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta allowed the Bucks to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after a loss on the road. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks started slow (or failed to thwart the inevitable fast start from Milwaukee after they lost home-court advantage in Game One) — after trailing by six points at the end of the first quarter, they were blitzed in the second quarter by a 43-17 margin to go into halftime by a 77-45 score. Atlanta has responded from a half-time deficit of 15 or more points by covering the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games next time out. Despite the lazy and tired reputation for never making adjustments, Bucks’ head coach Mike Budenholzer made yet another change in tactics in this game by having Brook Lopez confront Trae Young higher up the court on pick-and-roll switches. This took away Young’s floater game. The Hawks’ counter requires help from his teammates — but Young only had three assists. His nine turnovers were too many — but returning home should help where his teammates tend to shoot the basketball with more proficiency. Coaches become tactical geniuses or idiots often based on how often the shots finally fall. Atlanta shoots 46.4% from the field and makes 36.6% of their 3-pointers — and those numbers improve to a 47.1% mark along with a 38.7% clip from behind the arc when they are playing at home. Look for more from Kevin Huerter who scored only 21 combined points in the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. He poured in 44 points in the final two games in the Philadelphia series. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Milwaukee’s 52.1% shooting percentage was the best shooting effort in their last 14 games. But the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 30 points. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after winning three of four. Now the Bucks go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 220s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Atlanta Hawks (502) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162) in their Round of 16 match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Portugal (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout State of this tournament with their 2-2 draw with France on Wednesday. Belgium (W3-D0-L0) completed their perfect Group Stage with a 2-0 victory against Finland last Monday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain.

REASONS TO TAKE PORTUGAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal is ranked 5th in the world by FIFA with the ELO Ratings that rely on head-to-head metrics confirming that fifth place world standing. I agree — and I think this is the best roster A Selecao has had since the 2010 World Cup when I started seriously handicapping international soccer. Portugal has won the 2016 Euro and reached the Knockout Stage of the 2018 World Cup. The quality of the national team’s roster was validated when they won the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019. Portugal survived the Group of Death with an impressive draw against the reigning World Cup champions in France in a result they had to have. The opened this tournament with an impressive 3-0 win against Hungary who later played France and Germany very tough. I don’t issue too many demerits for the Portuguese’s 4-2 loss to the Germans in their second Group Stage match. Germany is very good and they needed the win after losing their opening match to France. A Selecao’s path to the Knockout Stage was pretty much assured after they grabbed the three points from Hungary. With Cristiano Ronaldo who has been the talisman for this team since that 2010 World Cup, Portugal has one of the best players in the world still with tons of high-pressure experience. The nation is a hot bed of talent — and they have produced a new generation of great players like Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix, Paris-Saint Germain’s Danilo, and Man City’s Ruben Dias. This roster is so loaded that Manchester United’s key midfielder Bruno Fernandes may not be in the starting XI — but he will be a super sub if veteran manager Fernando Santos needs scoring in the second half of the match. A Selecao also has some key veterans from the 2016 Euro run in Man City’s Bernardo Silva, Porto’s Pepe in back, and keeper Rui Patricio. Belgium is also loaded with talent amidst their golden generation — but they have yet to earn silverware and I have yet to see them triumph in a big match. They lost to France in the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup after getting upset by an overmatched Wales team in the 2016 Euro. Eden Hazard has fitness issues — as it seems to have been the case for the last two years after transferring from Chelsea to Real Madrid. He has been a disappointment ever since (and the Blues never looked back after losing him after winning the Champions League last month). Kevin De Bruyne is sublime in the midfield — and he looks fit again — but their midfield group are not adept at forcing turnovers. The backline for the Red Devils is a vulnerability — their center backs are getting old and their wing backs are only average. Belgium looked great in the Group Stage — but Finland and Russia are weak opponents. Denmark looks better than I expected — but it is telling that the Red Devils lost the expected goals battle to the Danes playing without Cristian Eriksen by a 1.99-0.82 xG score. Portugal beat France in expected goals by a 2.36 to 1.81 xG margin.

FINAL TAKE: Portugal won the 2016 Euro despite only one victory in regulation time. I watched them over-and-over deploy defensive tactics to grind out low-scoring matches before Ronaldo would find a way to win — until the Finals when Ronaldo was injured but his teammates found a way to win. I think these defensive tactics will work against Belgium — they are the more experienced team in these matches. The Red Devils may win — but I suspect their route to victory is through extra-time or the final penalty kick tie-breaker and we will have covered at +0.25 goals (or pushed if you get a pick ‘em line) in regulation time. A Portugal upset win in regulation time is also very live for this one. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Match of the Year with Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592) in Game Four of their Western Conference Finals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (61-24) had their nine-game winning streak in the postseason snapped in a 106-92 upset loss on the road against the Clippers as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Los Angeles (56-32) has won five of their last seven games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINT(S): Phoenix made only 38.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last 40 games. Chris Paul returned to the court after completing his COVID quarantine but he was rusty by making only 5 of 19 shots. Devin Booker made only 5 of 21 shots while looking uncomfortable wearing the mask he will have to get comfortable with after breaking his nose in the last game. To compound matters, Cameron Payne suffered a left ankle sprain which limited him to just 4:19 minutes played. Phoenix should bounce back tonight. They have only lost back-to-back games four times this season. Paul will be better with another two days of work to get back into his routine. Booker will get used to the mask — this has rarely been a hindrance for superstars once they get acclimated to the appliance (Rip Hamilton liked it so much that he kept wearing it after his face injury healed when he was leading Detroit Pistons to a title in the 1990s). Payne is listed as probable to play tonight. The Suns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Phoenix has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Suns have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. And while Phoenix has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when favored. Los Angeles played their best game on defense in their last 12 games by holding the Suns to just 38.9% shooting. But the Clippers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win as a home dog. Despite the triumph in Game Three, there are too many cracks in the armor for this team in what is essentially in a pick ‘em situation tonight. Kawhi Leonard is not likely to play again this postseason. Paul George is carrying the load — but he is logging a ton of minutes. He leads all players in the postseason with 653 minutes played and he has been required to play at least 40 minutes in six of his last eight games. The canary in the coal mine may have been his six turnovers in the final 14 minutes of Game Three. Marcus Morris is playing hurt. DeMarcus Cousins is unplayable since he will get burned on the pick-and-roll. And the Clippers continue to have no answer for Deandre Ayton who is scoring 20.7 PPG on 73.8% shooting in this series. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when avenging a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (591) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (592). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a  neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.

FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) in Game Seven of their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (43-28-8) forced a climactic seventh game in this series with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Wednesday. Tampa Bay (46-20-6) returns home to host this Game Seven having lost two of their last three games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have played a decisive 41 of their last 63 road games Under the Total after a win or tie in their last game. They have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win at home this season — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by just one goal. New York has also played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Islanders are outplaying the Lightning when playing at even strength. They have held them to only 7.67 High Danger Chances per game in this series — and they are scoring only 1.85 expected goals per game at five-on-five. Tampa Bay is thriving when they get on the power play. While their 29.4% success rate with the man-advantage in this series is below their 37.7% mark in this postseason, it is still well above their 23.1% success rate during the regular season. The Islanders were the least penalized team during the regular season. The referees tend to swallow their whistles in Game Sevens to not put undue influence on the game. There have been two games in this series that finished with more than five combined goals — and the Lightning had five and six power-play opportunities in both contests. In the other four games in this series, Tampa Bay was not on the power play more than twice for the entire game. New York has played 5 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied — and they have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games when facing elimination. The Islanders have also played 23 of their last 35 road games Under the Total on the road. Tampa Bay has played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They may be without their leading scorer in the playoffs in Nikita Kucherov tonight after he was knocked out of the game early in the first period from a crosscheck that targeted the injured hip that kept him out of the entire regular season. Kucherov is the straw that stirs their drink on the power play from good to elite. He has five goals and a whopping 27 assists in the postseason. The Lightning have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home in closeout games.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 opportunities to host the Islanders — and they have played 8 straight Game Sevens Under the Total. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinal Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (31) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (32). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Vegas (50-19-5) is on the brink of elimination in the playoffs after a 4-1 loss at home to the Canadiens on Tuesday. Montreal (35-25-12) has won ten of their last twelve games as they seized a 3-2 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I am investing in Vegas tonight with full appreciation that this Canadiens team is good. General manager Mark Bergevin made some savvy offseason moves in bringing over Tyler Toffoli (the team’s leading points-scorer in the postseason), Josh Anderson (an absolute steal from Columbus), and the veteran forward Corey Perry. Midseason acquisitions of Eric Staal, Erik Gustafsson, and Jon Merrill added more veteran talent for depth and playoff experience. The absence of head coach Dominique Ducharme has not been as devastating because this group is loaded with veterans with playoff experience. This is a team built for the playoffs — and they demonstrated their potential by winning six of their first nine games before injuries and later COVID outbreaks wreaked havoc on their season. A condensed schedule down the stretch did not help matters as they made up for lost games to COVID in the early months of the year. But seeding — and home-ice — means little in the Stanley Cup playoffs. All the Canadiens needed was to get into the tournament. And now their elite goalie Carey Price has once again flipped the switch to demonstrate why he deserves to get paid over $10 million per year. This Montreal team has a profile that is similar to a Minnesota Wild group that gave the Knights in the regular season and playoffs — only with a better goaltender. That all said, I think beating this good Knights team for the fourth time in five games will be a challenge. The Canadiens have shortened their bench so much that they are using their top-line units at forward and defense over 80% of the time. Vegas remains committed to rolling four forward lines in a strategy that eventually wore down an outstanding Colorado team. Montreal has basked in the role of the underdog in this postseason with upset wins against Toronto and now their 3-2 lead over the heavily favored Knights — but now they are the favorites to win this series. And while they are at home tonight, these Game Sixes at home are dangerous because they carry with it the pressure of winning the series now or risk going on the road into a very hostile environment in a Game Seven. And Montreal does not have many fans in their stands still — so the home edge is not that prevalent. Don’t be surprised if this team suffers an emotional letdown. They have lost 20 of their last 33 games at home after a win by two or more goals. They have lost 9 of their last 13 home games after not allowing more than two goals in their last two games. Vegas needs to find some answers in getting their forwards going — but they should be on fire tonight in terms of work rate and effort. The Golden Knights have won 9 of their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have won 10 of their last 14 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least four goals in their last game. Robin Lehner will be the goaltender tonight which is fine — he had a 2.29 Goals-Against-Average and a .919 save percentage during the regular season after being the first-string goalie in the postseason last year. The team needs a momentum change — and placing Lehner between the pipes may light the fire under this team. Lehner did win Game Four in his start in Montreal to even this series. Vegas has won 20 of their last 27 road games when favored. They able also won 4 of their last 5 playoff games this season when trailing in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas has won 26 of their last 34 games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than one goal — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games when motivated to avenge a loss by three or more goals. 25* NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (21) versus the Montreal Canadiens (22). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (44-29) has lost the first two games of this series with their 3-2 loss on the road last night. San Diego (44-32) has won six games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss to an NL West rival — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a loss by just one run. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two in a row. They give the ball to Bauer who is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 15 starts. The right-hander is the poster child for spin rate — and seems to have been negatively impacted with MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances that help pitchers get more spin on the baseball. In his last four starts, Bauer has a seen his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.46 and 1.27 marks. While those are still solid numbers, they are not elite — and he is facing a good Padres’ lineup that is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .274 batting average, .357 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .932. The Over is 13-6-1 in San Diego’s last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Perhaps the spin rate issue with Bauer is overstated — and he is simply experiencing good ole fashioned regression? His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.44 and 3.73 for the right-hander moving forward. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning at least six in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total when favored. They counter Musgrove who is 4-6 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 14 games (13 starts). The sabermetrics call for an ERA of 3.97 and 3.00 moving forward. The left-hander changed his approach this season with an increased reliance on his cutter and slider at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. But hitters adapt once the book gets written on his new approach — and the Dodgers have already faced him once this season on April 25th. His teams have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with him pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He only struck out two batters in his last performance on June 17th — and his teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Musgrove pitching with five or six days of rest. The Dodgers may not have Mookie Betts in their lineup tonight as he deals with an illness — but they are averaging 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. The Over is 27-11-2 in LA’s last 40 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when motivated by at least double-revenge. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (907) and the San Diego Padres (908) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. THE SITUATION: Oakland (44-29) has lost two straight games after their 2-1 loss in New York against the Yankees yesterday. Texas (25-46) has lost six in a row after their 4-2 loss to Minnesota yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. And while Oakland had been on a seven-game winning streak before dropping their last two, they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The A’s stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They give the ball to Montas who is 7-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.13 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in four starts. Oakland has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Montas pitching with a Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.86 and 3.91 moving forward. He faces a Rangers team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .226 batting average, .282 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .649. The Under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rangers have seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Texas has also played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. They counter with Gibson who is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a .191 opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Rangers have played 4 of their 6 home games Under the Total with Gibson on the hill this season.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 range. Oakland has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing at night. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (911) and the Texas Rangers (912) listing both starting pitchers Frankie Montas and Kyle Gibson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (48-35) has lost three of the last five games in this series after their 104-99 loss on the road against the 76ers on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (56-27) had lost the last two games in this series before forcing a Game Seven with the win in Game Six.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After their blistering first half in the opening game of this series where the Hawks made 63.4% of their shots, Atlanta has never come close to replicating that mark. They have not made more than 45.9% of their shots in five of the next six games — and they only made 41.2% of their shots on Friday despite playing on their home court. While Trae Young has been scintillating with a 30.3 PPG scoring average along with an 11.0 Assists-Per-Game mark, the problem for the Hawks is that he is not getting much help. No other play is averaging more than 2.5 Assists-Per-Game. Bogan Bogdanovich had being been a reliable number two in the first four games of this series with a 19 PPG scoring average and a 36.1% clip from bending the arc, he has only averaged 6.5 PPG in the last two games while making only 1 of his 10 shots from 3-point range. And now Bogdanovich is questionable with a knee injury for this game. Young needs more help. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They go back to Philadelphia for Game Seven where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Hawks have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. After scoring at least 118 points in each of the first three games of this series, the Sixers have not scored more than 106 points in the next three games. That downtrend coincides with the slide in Joel Embiid’s play as he continues to manage with the right meniscus tear in his knee. Embiid scored only 22 points on 37.5% shooting on Friday. Philadelphia is favored to win this game and move on to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination. Atlanta has played 17 of their last 22 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination in their history — and they have played 16 of their last 17 playoff games Under the Total in closeout games. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (533) and the Philadelphia 76ers (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (53-29) forced a decisive seventh game in this series on Thursday with their 104-89 victory at home as a 5-point favorite. Brooklyn (55-28) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Khris Middleton stepped on Thursday by scoring 37 points on 11 of 16 shooting from the field. Middleton nailed 5 of his 8 shots from behind the arc — but the telling stat is that his teammates made only 2 of their 25 shots from downtown. Now the Bucks go back on the road where Middleton has made only 21 of his 65 shots (32.3%) in this series. Milwaukee has made only 27 of their 89 shots (30.3%) from behind the arc in this series. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall — and they have played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total when getting the points. Milwaukee is playing elite-level defense in this series. Going into Game Six, the Bucks held Brooklyn to just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and then they held the Nets to only 89 points. Brooklyn is averaging only — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. The Nets are averaging only 103.7 PPG in this series —and they have not scored more than 96 points in three of their last four games in this series. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (and despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets had just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series before Game Six. The Under is 34-16-1 in Milwaukee’s last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. While there is now an entire cottage industry of NBA “experts” who think they could get more out of this Bucks’ team than Mike Budenholzer because they have thoughts on how they would better deploy his rotation patterns, Budenholzer has coached amazing results on the defensive end of the court in this series. Brooklyn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Nets’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a loss by 10 or more points. For the second-straight game, Brooklyn trailed at halftime by double-digits. They were in the hole by a 59-48 score on Thursday after trailing, 59-43, on Tuesday. The Nets have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after trailing by 10 or more points at halftime in their last two games. They return home where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. Brooklyn has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams stumbling into the finals with major question marks from their star offensive players. Kevin Durant was sublime in Game Five — but playing every minute on Tuesday seemed to sap his energy on Thursday as he only got to the free throw line twice while committing seven turnovers and missing six of his eight shots from 3-point land. James Harden is not close to 100%. Joe Harris is making only 30.9% of his 3-pointers in this series after leading the NBA in 3-point shooting with a 47.5% clip. Middleton is struggling away from home — and Jrue Holiday is not having a good series as he is averaging only 15.5 PPG on 40.5% shooting. And then there is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring nice numbers when able to pad his stats as a frontrunner when his team has the lead, but he has disappointed in clutch situations and he has only made 21 of his 46 (45.7%) free throws in the series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Brooklyn. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (521) and the Brooklyn Nets (522). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (55-27) has suffered two straight upset losses in this series after losing to the Hawks at home by a 109-106 score as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Atlanta (48-34) can close out this series tonight with their 3-2 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers took a 62-40 lead going into halftime but their shooting got ice cold as they made only 3 of their 24 shots from behind the arc in the final 24 minutes to blow that game. While it is easy to blame the offense, Doc Rivers’ team allowed the Hawks to score 40 points in the fourth quarter to steal Game Five. In general, Philadelphia has played outstanding defense after getting blitzed in the first half of the first game of this series. Since Game One, the Sixers have held the Atlanta to scoring at just a 108.4 points per 100 possessions rate. Philly’s formula to win this series is on defense. And while Atlanta wants to force the tempo to tire out Joel Embiid in the second half, Rivers will need to counter by slowing the game way down — and in a battle of tempo, slow usually beats fast. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after owning a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They hit the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total when favored. The Sixers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Atlanta has won the last two games in this series as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset wins. Additionally, Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Hawks’ head coach Nate McMillan having his team less reliant on 3s as this series has moved forward. Granted, Atlanta took 40 shots from behind the arc in Game Four while making only 12 of these shots. In Game Three, the Hawks attempted only 23 shots from 3-point range. On Wednesday in Game Five, the Hawks attempted only 26 shots from behind the arc, making just nine of these shots. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their 4 games this season when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less, 3 of these games have finished Under the Total. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (511) and the Atlanta Hawks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (55-27) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 114-108 victory at home as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Milwaukee (52-29) has lost three of their last five games as they return home looking to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets won Game Five due to a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant who scored 49 points on 16 of 23 shooting from the field while playing every minute of the game. It will be difficult for Durant to come close to repeating that effort — especially with fatigue being an issue. James Harden played over 45 minutes but he was clearly hobbled with his hamstring injury. He scored only 5 points while making only 1 of his 10 shots and missing all 8 of his shots from behind the arc. Brooklyn shot 49.4% from the field on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Despite posting a historical 118.3 Offensive Rating in the regular season (despite injuries to Durant, Harden, and Kyrie Irving) before a 130.1 Offensive Rating in their first-round playoff series with Boston, the Nets have just a 107.9 Offensive Rating in this series — and they are averaging just 107 PPG against the Bucks in this series. But Brooklyn should play better on defense tonight after allowing Milwaukee to nail 49.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nets have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Milwaukee enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 10 games with their 49.4% shooting percentage on Tuesday. But when the pressure mounted, the Bucks’ shooting failed — they scored only 17 points in the final 10 1/2 minutes of the fourth quarter. Milwaukee only has a 100 Offensive Rating in this series — and they have been playing at a slower pace than during the regular season. The 108 points they scored in Game Five were the most points they scored in the series. With the oddsmakers setting the Game One number just under 240, some bettors may think the Under trend is completed — and the Over is the smart play again. However, I suspect that the 108 points for the Bucks were more likely their scoring ceiling at this point. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a mess that is riddled with self-doubt at the free-throw line — and Milwaukee’s only answer for the “wall” defense that has stymied them in the postseason in the last three years is for teammates to make 3-pointers. But the Bucks are shooting just 29.3% from behind the arc in this series. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have true shooting percentages below 47% in this series. The ball movement has diminished in this series for Milwaukee as well which is impacting their efficiency. After averaging 25.5 team assists per game in the regular season, they are getting only 18.4 team assists per game. The Bucks have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home after an upset loss on the road. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 25-10-1 in the Bucks’ last 36 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games. While Milwaukee’s offensive attack has struggled in this series, their efforts on defense remain elite.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Under the Total when trailing in the playoff series. The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games between these two teams — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (501) and the Milwaukee Bucks (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-30) evened this series at 2-2 with their 118-104 win against the Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah (58-23) has lost two games in a row after riding a six-game winning streak.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 9-2-1 in the Clippers’ last 12 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least 10 points. The Clippers have declared Kawhi Leonard out tonight from the knee injury he suffered after colliding with the Jazz’s Joe Ingles with just 4:35 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Leonard’s loss hurts Los Angeles on both ends of the court — but his loss will probably impact their offensive attack the most since he is the team’s primary scorer. Paul George has a long history of not being reliable as the primary scorer in the playoffs. Everyone’s role for the Clippers becomes more important without Leonard. Marcus Morris broke out of his shooting slump on Monday by nailing 5 of his 6 shots from behind the arc — but he made only 1 of his 16 shots from 3-point range in the first three games of this series even with Leonard available as a safety blanket. The Under is 19-9-1 in Los Angeles’ last 29 road games against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Utah has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss by 10 or more points. And while the Jazz have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Utah is dealing with its own injury issues. Donovan Mitchell made just 9 of 26 shots from the field in Game Four as the right ankle injury he suffered seems to be impacting his play. With a 42.6% usage rate for the Jazz on offense, he may be wearing down. Michael Conley is questionable to return to the court for the first time in this series — if he does play, he not only helps the Utah offense with his playmaking but also on defense since he remains a skilled on-the-ball defender.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in Salt Lake City against the Jazz. 25* NBA Bailout Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (583) and the Utah Jazz (584). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (54-27) looks to rebound from their 107-96 upset loss at Milwaukee as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (52-28) has won six of their last eight games including the last two games to even this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NETS PLUS THE POINTS: Brooklyn looked shellshocked and out-of-synch after Kyrie Irving injured his ankle — he only played 17:17 minutes in Game Four. Irving is out for tonight’s game. But the Nets did get some help back with Jeff Green returning to action after missing the previous six games. He played 26:33 minutes on Sunday with eight points and five rebounds. He helps on both ends of the court. Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant to carry the team — both he and his supporting cast should play better back on their home court. Durant made only 20 of his 53 shots in the last two games in Milwaukee. Joe Harris was just 3 of 13 from behind the arc in Games Three and Four. But Harris led the NBA with a 47.5% clip from behind the arc during the regular season — and he was even better at home in the Barclays Center where he nailed 49.7% of his 3-point attempts. As a team, Brooklyn only made 18 of their 65 shots from 3-point land — and that 27.7% shooting percentage is far below their 39.4% mark from 3-point land at home. Durant should play better with two days to mentally prepare for having to be the primary scorer tonight — but he should get help back at home. The Nets are 14-2 straight-up at home since the start of April — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games at home. Brooklyn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And in the last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Brooklyn has covered the point spread 6 times. Milwaukee only made 44.3% of their shots on Sunday — and it was still the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by double-digits. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 34 points in the win on 14 of 26 shooting. Despite those nice numbers, I am not buying it. Antetokounmpo continued with his struggles and antics at the free-throw line as he missed five of his ten free throw attempts. He has made only 11 of his 29 (37.9%) free throws in this series. He has the yips — and it is affecting his play on the court even when he is not on the line. His fear of dealing with the demons in his head that he uses all ten seconds allotted what the charity stripe in those of quieting them down contributes to him not playing as aggressively in attacking the basket — he doesn’t want to get fouled. His free-throw shooting in the first two games in Brooklyn was even worse as he made just 2 of his 10 shots. This makes the blue-print “wall” defense against Antetokounmpo even more effective — and it compels him to settle for 3-point shot attempts even though he has made only 4 of his 21 shots from behind the arc in this series. The Greek Freak’s good game came mostly on the heels of his teammates picked him up by making 16 of their 47 shots from 3-point land — with most of their converted 3s taking place in the first half. But the Bucks have not made more than 8 shots from downtown in any other game in this series — and they have a rough 20 of 88 (22.3%) shooting percentage from 3-point range in this series. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home. And while the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while the first four games in this series have finished Under the Total, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing four Unders in a row. Now the Bucks hit the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The news that James Harden will attempt to take the court tonight as he deals with his hamstring injury. We will see if he can be effective — but he can only help the cause. Even without Harden, I think Brooklyn wins tonight (but I recommend taking the points for some insurance). 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Brooklyn Nets (572) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Utah (58-22) had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 132-106 loss at the Staples Center to the Clippers as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (52-30) still trails 2-1 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jazz allowed the Clippers to make 56.2% of their shots in Game Three which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 47 games. Utah has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at 55% of their shots. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after giving up at least 130 points in their last game. Additionally, Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Los Angeles’ 56.2% shooting percentage was the best offensive effort in their last seven games. But the Clippers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Head coach Tyronn Lue made a defensive adjustment on defending Donovan Mitchell on Saturday by having his primary defender challenge him earlier up the court. That tactical change helped the Clippers play their best defensive game in the series, overall while limiting the Jazz to 42.9% shooting. Los Angeles stays at home where the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-7-3 in the Clippers’ last 30 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and the Under is 10-4-2 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Michael Conley has been declared out for this game with the hamstring injury that has kept him out of this series. The Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA 2nd Round Monday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (563) and the Los Angeles Clippers (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552) in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (51-28) won their first game in this series with their 86-83 victory at home against the Nets as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. Brooklyn (54-26) had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Game Three of this series was a fascinating result (from afar). Milwaukee made only 37.8% of their shots in the win which was the lowest field goal percentage of the season. But they were able to win the game via their ferocious play on defense — they held Brooklyn to 36.2% shooting which was their second-best defensive game of the season since Game Two of the regular season (77 games ago). I track these numbers because I want to identify outlier performances to bet against. In this instance, I suspect those numbers are a harbinger of things to come in this series — they are trends rather than outliers. The Bucks scored only 86 points in Game Two on 44.0% shooting. The four-game sweep against Miami temporarily obscured that Milwaukee has not solved its “wall” problem that opposing teams have used in the postseason to neutralize Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the Bucks playing four shooters outside the 3-point line, the Greek Freak has success in the regular season driving the lane with all the cleared space. But their playoff opponents have not taken the bait but instead, play a wall in the interior — a quasi-roaming 2-3 zone defense — to thwart these potential Antetokounmpo drives. An active Antetokounmpo can challenge this defense — exerting energy and getting to the free-throw line. Or, he can play outside as well and take 3-pointers. Or, he can settle for two-point jump shots just inside the arc. Or, he can drive the lane and dish to his open opponents. None of this works if Giannis is off his game … and Giannis is off his game. He has missed 6 of 19 free throw attempts while hushing the Milwaukee crowd to not cheer “MVP” at the line and twice getting whistled for a ten-second violation as he tries to quiet the demons in his head at the stripe. He has the yips. And his fear of failure at the free-throw line is taking away his ambition to drive. So he settles for jumpers — yet he made only 1 of 8 shots from behind the arc in Game Three. If he takes a shot just inside the arc, the defense has already won given the low probability of that 2-point shot. Antetokounmpo can dish to his teammates — but the team made only 6 of their 31 (19.3%) shots from downtown. The whole team senses their leader’s anxiety. The Plan B to Giannis not making shots is the Bucks’ system that emphasizes maximizing shot value from 3-pointers. The critics love to blame Budenholzer for his inability to adapt — but there is simply little he can turn to. Rather than blaming Budenholzer, maybe he should be credited for getting the most out of the talent available to him. The team needs a reliable complementary scoring option to Giannis — but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday may be third options being asked to take on the number two role. And what if Antetokounmpo is really not a number one option himself? Blame Budenholzer! Where Budenhozler continues to adapt is on defense — that is the route from which the Bucks can win this series. They have slowed down the high-powered Nets offense to just 107.7 PPG. And the pace is slowing down. After averaging 102.2 possessions per game in the regular season, Milwaukee's pace was 97.7 on Thursday. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 6 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn should have fresh legs on defense — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 35 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Nets have played 24 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. I expect more of the same with the market slow to react to the new realities of this series. 25* NBA 2nd Round ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (551) and the Milwaukee Bucks (552). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (51-30) returns home to the Staples Center down 0-2 in this series after their 117-111 loss on the road in Game Two on Thursday. Utah (58-21) has won six straight games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, Los Angeles has to dig themselves out of an 0-2 hole in this postseason. No team in NBA history has rebounded from two 0-2 deficits in the playoffs — but at least we know that the Clippers are resilient. They went on a 46-23 run when trailing by 21 points in the second half in Game Two. Head coach Tyronn Lue deployed a zone defense to help trigger the rally. But Los Angeles still allowed the Jazz to make 55.3% of their shots in that game. That was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered in their last seven games. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55% of their shots. And while LA has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 111 points, they have then covered the point spread in 58 of their last 91 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — including 13 of these 21 situations this season. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 56 games after losing two of their last three games. Returning home will help the Los Angeles role players shoot better. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles has also coerced the point spread in 6 of their last 9 playoff games when trailing in the series. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when favored. Utah enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last 13 games with their 55.3% shooting percentage. But the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. But now Utah goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 65 games when motivated to avenge a same-season loss. 25* NBA 2nd Round Saturday ABC-TV Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (542) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (57-23) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 123-98 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Denver (51-29) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Even with the easy win, the Suns made 47.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. They have been an offensive juggernaut in this series against the suspect Nuggets’ defense — they are scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions in this series. Phoenix has an effective field goal percentage of 59.7% in the first two games while nailing 40.3% of their 3-point attempts. Denver has allowed their opponents to make 42.2% of their shots from behind the arc in the postseason. Chris Paul looks healthy again after playing through that stinger injury. He scored 17 points on 6 of 10 shooting while assisting on another 15 baskets and not committing a turnover. The Suns have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points. They go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phoenix has also played 12 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver had their worst shooting game in their last four contests by making only 40% of their shots. They return home where they are scoring 117.9 PPG on 48.4% shooting and 37.8% shooting from behind the arc. Unfortunately for head coach Michael Malone, the 47.9% shooting percentage they allowed Phoenix to generate was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. They have allowed the Suns to score at least 112 points in four of their five meetings this season. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. They return home where the Over is 39-19-2 in their last 60 games. They have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 220s. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging two straight losses against their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (533) and the Denver Nuggets (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (51-28) had their two game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 122-105 loss at Phoenix as a 6-point underdog in the opening game of this series. Phoenix (56-23) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets only made 46.7% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Nikola Jokic was just 10 of 23 from the field in the game for 22 points. It was just the third time in 79 games this season that Jokic’s point total was below his shot attempts number. Jokic did not attempt a free throw attempt either which had only happened four other times this season. Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton was only whistled for one personal foul in his 38 minutes of play. Jokic only had three assists despite averaging 8.3 Assists-Per-Game for the season. He should be more active and aggressive tonight which will help the Nuggets approach or top their 118.6 Points-Per-Game scoring average in the playoffs. Denver has played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Over is 18-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 26 games after a loss by 10 or more points. Michael Porter only scored 15 points in Game One while not playing for most of the second half with a sore back. He has initially listed as questionable, but he has been upgraded as probable to play tonight. He should play better tonight as well in his role as the primary scoring complement to Jokic. Denver stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Denver has played 6 of their last 7 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog. Phoenix has seen the Over go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 24-9-1 in their last 34 games after a point spread victory. The Suns have also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit win. Phoenix makes 49.8% of their shots at home this season with them averaging 115.8 PPG. They had balanced scoring against the Nuggets on Monday with four players scoring at least 20 points. Chris Paul looked as healthy as he has since suffering the stinger injury in the Lakers series. He made 8 of 14 shots for 23 points and added 11 assists. The Suns have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total at home against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on the road. Phoenix has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA 2nd Round Wednesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Phoenix Suns (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.