At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). THE SITUATION: Michigan (22-4) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their gritty 86-78 victory against LSU as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Florida State (18-6) has won three of their last four games after their 71-53 upset win against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was resilient to take the Tigers’ best punch but still rally from a 9-point deficit to defeat an LSU team that is loaded with talent and playing at a high level. Juwan Howard displayed his coaching acumen making many in-game adjustments that changed the momentum. And the Wolverines had several role players step up to make big shots. The loss of Isaiah Livers has been absorbed by several players. Eli Brooks led the team with 21 points with the senior making several clutch baskets. Transfer Chaundee Brown is getting more playing time with Livers on the shelf — he responded with 21 points himself. Michigan has played worse this season in the times when Brooks has been hurt rather than Livers — his role on the team is more vital this season given the emergence of freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson at center. Brandon Johns took Livers' spot in the starting lineup — he had a solid 7 points with 5 rebounds in 27 minutes. Johns is a former five-star recruit under John Beilein who can create his own shot as more of a post-up player than Livers. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win. The offense was clicking even without Livers with the Wolverines making 53.8% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wolverines scored 82 points in their opening-round game against Texas Southern — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. Only Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan rank inside the top-ten in Adjusted Efficiency in both offense and defense. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored. I take a backseat to no one in my respect for Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton. We had them in their upset in against Colorado — but that was likely an outlier performance. The Seminoles made 52.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. But Michigan may be catching Florida State at the right time. This is the best 3-point shooting team in Hamilton’s tenure at Florida State — but they have hit only 6 of their 26 shots (23.0%) 3-pointers in the Big Dance which may be a harbinger of things to come under tournament pressure facing elite defenses. As it is, the Seminoles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Florida State has flexed their muscles on defense by holding their first two opponents to 53.5 PPG in the Big Dance. But the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after not allowing their last two opponents to score more than 55 points. Florida State has balanced scoring and a deep bench — but I am not sure they have a reliable go-to scorer in the half-court when they need a basket. The Seminoles rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they fall to 31st in that metric when playing on the road. And while their length on defense will disrupt Michigan, they lack a post-defender who can handle Dickinson down low. The 7-footer will likely be a difference-maker in this game — especially on the boards. The Seminoles allow their opponents to pull down 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Florida State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan is 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games played on a neutral court — and they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Florida State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (628) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (23-8) lost in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament in an 84-62 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. Colorado State (20-7) lost to Memphis yesterday by a 90-67 score as a 4.5-point underdog. This third-place consolation game is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed the Mississippi State Bulldogs to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. That mark was far above their opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.2% for the season. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Louisiana Tech ranks 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to ranking 30th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. However, the Bulldogs rank just 219th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their 96th rank in that metric when at home. The Under is 8-1-2 in Louisiana Tech’s last 11 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Colorado State allowed Memphis to make 55.7% of their shots yesterday which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. They caught a red-hot Memphis team who could not miss in the second half yesterday (one of the reasons I passed on the Tigers today). The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While the Rams rank 67th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 112th in offense when playing on the road. Colorado State has played 40 of their last 59 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games on a neutral court Under the Total when an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). THE SITUATION: Villanova (18-6) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats were hot from behind the arc against the Mean Green — they nailed 15 of their 30 shots from 3-point land. We had Villanova in both their NCAA Tournament games last week with the belief that Jay Wright would push the right buttons to keep his offense clicking even after the season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie. Wright has responded by running the offense through 6’9 forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who has averaged 20.0 PPG with 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this tournament. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are going to launch 3s as they play the role of spoiler — a rare role for this program under Wright. Villanova is 27th in the nation by attempting 45.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Wright will likely think his formula for success is to out-shoot the Bears since his team ranks 221st nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Baylor has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. But the play of Scott Drew’s defense remains a concern. The three-week COVID pause in February stunted the development of his team’s play on that end of the court. Since February 1st, the Bears rank 111th in Adjusted Net Defense which is a big drop-off from their 41st ranking overall this season in that metric. After not allowing more than 69 points in all eight of their Big 12 games before February 2nd, Baylor has surrendered at least 70 points in their next five conference games (and six of seven heading into the NCAA Tournament). The numbers have been better against Hartford and Wisconsin in the Big Dance, but that might speak more about those teams than the quality of the Bears’ defensive play. But Baylor will keep scoring — while five of their last ten opponents have shot at least 47.5% from the field, they have made at least 50.8% of their shots in five of those ten games. The Bears average 84.2 PPG behind an offense that ranks third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor has played 12 of the last 14 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Big Dance — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). THE SITUATION: Memphis (18-8) has won three of their last four games after defeating Boise State by a 59-56 score as a 4-point favorite in the NIT Quarterfinals on Thursday. Colorado State (20-6) has also won three of their last four games after their 65-61 upset win against North Carolina State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday in their NIT Quarterfinals contest. This game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis advanced despite making only 42.9% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last three games. Penny Hardaway’s team should build off their momentum — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Memphis had covered the point spread in seven straight games before not covering against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row. Hardaway has been criticized for his coaching — but the former NBA star has overseen the development of his team rising to be number one in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation. Memphis has played two straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. And in their last 6 games when playing their second game in three days, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Hardaway’s team has played better away from home — while they rank 50th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 31st in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in games with the total set in the 130s. Colorado State may be due for a letdown after rallying in the second half to defeat the Wolfpack on Thursday. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win. Despite the win, they are scoring only 68.8 PPG over their last five games with a 40.6% field goal percentage over that span which is a dropoff of -5.5 PPG from their season average where they are making 46.9% of their shots. Colorado State has been more effective at home at Fort Collins where they rank 63rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. When away from home, the Rams fall to 87th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The biggest problem is with the play of their offense — consistent with the decline in their recent five games. While Colorado State ranks 65th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 134th in that metric on the road. Protecting the basketball has been an issue — they turn the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions, ranking 205th nationally. Memphis forces turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 28th nationally.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on a neutral court as a dog getting 3.5 to 6 points. Memphis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB NIT Semifinals Game of the Year with the Memphis Tigers (629) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (22-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite. Golden State (22-23) has lost three in a row with their 141-119 loss at Sacramento as a 4.5-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks lost to the Kings despite making 48.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Atlanta makes only 45.3% of their shots on the road. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Atlanta had been on an eight-game winning streak since they named Nate McMillan their head coach. He made an immediate impact in improving the play of the team’s defense after being elevated from an assistant coach for Lloyd Pierce. In the ten games under McMillan’s command, the Hawks rank fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating — a big improvement over their 18th ranking for the season. Over their last five games, Atlanta has held their opponents to 104.6 PPG on 44.4% shooting representing a -6.1 PPG improvement over the 110.7 PPG they are allowing for the season. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots last night — even without Stephen Curry — which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Warriors also allowed the Kings to make 59.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Golden State has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing without rest. The Warriors have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State remains without Curry who is out with a bruised tailbone. The Warriors are making only 44.6% of their shots in their last five games with the last three without Curry. They are scoring 108.8 PPG during that span which is -3.9 PPG below their season average. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Title as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors were without Draymond Green and Eric Paschall last night with both out feeling ill after getting their COVID shot. They are questionable for tonight. The Hawks traded Rajon Rondo for Lou Williams yesterday but the high-scoring guard is not likely to be ready to play for his new team tonight. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Golden State. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Calgary Flames (32) versus the Winnipeg Jets (31). THE SITUATION: Calgary (15-6-3) has lost three in a row after a 3-1 loss at Ottawa on Wednesday. Winnipeg (20-11-2) has won two in a row with their 5-1 win at Vancouver on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The honeymoon is over for new head coach Darryl Sutter. Calgary had won three of four games under the veteran disciplinarian — but they getting swept in Ottawa against the lowly Senators presents desperate times for this team. The Flames have rebounded to win 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by at least three goals. And they won 5 of their last 8 games after losing two in a row. Now after playing their last four on the road, they return home where they have won 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Calgary has also won 9 of their last 13 games after playing four in a row on the road. The Flames have only scored twice in their last three games but returning to their home ice should help where they are averaging 3.3 Goals-Per-Game. They may be catching Winnipeg on the right night. The Jets have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have lost 13 of their last 18 games after a won on the road by at least two goals. Winnipeg has lost 8 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Jets won their previous game by a 4-0 score at Vancouver — but they have lost 22 of their last 32 games after winning two in a row. They also have lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning two in a row by at least two goals.

FINAL TAKE: Calgary has won 6 of their last 8 opportunities to play Winnipeg at home. Look for the Flames to play inspired tonight. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Calgary Flames (32) versus the Winnipeg Jets (31). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (22-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-61 upset victory against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog last Friday. Western Kentucky (21-7) has won four of their last five games after their 69-67 upset victory against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog last Wednesday. This NIT Quarterfinals game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs reached the Quarterfinals with their win against Ole Miss despite allowing them to make 40.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has held their last five opponents to just 38.4% shooting along with 61.6 PPG which is -2.9 PPG below their season average. They have allowed 61 and 54 points in the last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Bulldogs’ last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while that game finished above the 129.5 point total, Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The home/road splits are striking for this team. While they rank 93rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 236th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. And while they rank 77th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they skyrocket to ninth-best in defense when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against Conference USA opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Western Kentucky outlasted the Gaels despite allowing them to make 48% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 17 games. The Hilltoppers have still held their last five opponents to 40.5% shooting which has resulted in just 62.4 PPG in their last five games which are -5.5 PPG below their season average. They are scoring only 66.0 PPG in these previous five games which are -7.0 PPG below their season average — a 41.4% shooting mark explains the decline. Western Kentucky have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Hilltoppers have also palled 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Additionally, Western Kentucky has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against conference foes — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Hilltoppers have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is looking to avenge a 63-58 loss at home to the Bulldogs on January 9th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-19) has lost three in a row after their 134-101 loss to the Clippers as a 6.5-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (29-16) has won three in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: We had San Antonio last night as a 10* play. The Clippers raced out to a 41-29 lead at the end of the first quarter — but the Spurs rallied to pull within six points midway through the second quarter where the game yo-yoed back-and-forth until LA pulled away midway through the third quarter. Head coach Gregg Popovich called off the proverbial dogs in the fourth quarter with his starter not playing the final eight minutes. While it is dangerous to chase losses, it is also foolish to automatically dismiss profitable opportunities only because of a previous lost bet. Tonight’s situation is stronger as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. This is a team that has been on a five-game road trip — and now they have lost the first two games of a nine-game homestand. The Spurs have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. This is their second game of a nine-game homestand — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after losing at least two in a row. This is an underrated team that has intriguing young talent along with DeMar DeRozan who is playing at a very high level. As always under Gregg Popovich, this is a well-coached team that plays smart. San Antonio leads the NBA with the lowest turnover rate in the league — and they have the fifth-lowest foul rate. The Spurs are also playing better defense as of late. They had held their previous five opponents to 105.6 PPG on 45.2% shooting which is -4.5 PPG below their season average — before last night’s mulligan. They also were making a healthy 47.9% of their shots during that five-game span before shooting just 45.9% last night which was the worst shooting margin in their last four games. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog. Los Angeles shot 55.7% from the field last night which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. Yet the Clippers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning and covering the point spread in at least two straight games as a favorite. The Clippers have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE:  The Clippers will still be without Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley who are dealing with injuries. San Antonio hopes to get Lonnie Walker IV and Rudy Gay back tonight after they missed last night’s game with injures. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points.
25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). THE SITUATION: NC State (14-10) has won six of their last seven games with their 75-61 win against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. Colorado State (19-6) has won two of their last three games with their 75-73 win against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite last Friday. This quarterfinals match in the National Invitational Tournament is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: NC State nailed 58.8% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort of the season. That typically is a red flag for me as an outlier effort that is due for regression. But that was the fifth time in their last seven games that NC State has made at least 50% of their shots. This is a team peaking in March — despite losing their top-scorer, Devon Daniels, to a season-ending ACL tear at the end o January. Kevin Keatts kept coaching — and he has redesigned the offense to rely more on his frontcourt. Junior forward Jericole Hellems has averaged 13.8 PPG in his last 13 games. 6’10 senior D.J. Funderburk led the team with 21 points against Davidson. Four of the Wolfpack’s best graded net efficiency performances have taken place since February 6th. The team trends suggest the strong effort last week is a sign of good things to come for this team — they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. And while the Wolfpack’s with the Wildcats finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing an Under. NC State also tends to play better on the road. While they rank 93rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 27th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road fueled by a ranking 13th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Another metrics projection system I consider ranks the Wolfpack as the 11th best team in the nation on the road. Colorado State has played their basketball at home in Fort Collins where they have an edge given their familiarity with the higher altitude. The Rams rank 64th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home — but they fall to 90th nationally in that metric on the road. The biggest dropoff away from home is the performance of their offense. While Colorado State is 68th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 124th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. This is not a great matchup for the Rams either given their propensity to commit turnovers. Colorado State turns the ball over in 19.8% of their possessions, the 222nd worst mark in the nation. They were even worse in the Mountain West Conference with a turnover rate of 21.9%, ninth-worst. The Wolfpack forced turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 40th nationally. Colorado State has not committed more than 11 turnovers in four straight games — but not only have the Rams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in two straight games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than 11 turnovers in three straight games. Despite protecting the basketball better as of late (albeit against opponents not as adept at forcing turnovers as NC State), the top-five performances this season for Colorado State, in terms of efficiency, all took place before February.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. NC State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court as a favorite or picks ‘em — and they have covered the point spread 9 of their last 14 games on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (613) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus Colorado State (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). THE SITUATION: Pepperdine (14-12) advanced to the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational with their 82-71 win against Bellarmine as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (18-7) won their semifinals game against Stetson with a 77-72 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite. The CBI is being played at a neutral court at Oceans Center in Dayton Beach.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Pepperdine had high expectations to begin the season with four starters back from the group that finished 16-16. Lorenzo Romar has talent on his team — led by senior Colbey Ross who is averaging 17.6 PPG and junior Kessler Edwards who added 17.5 PPG. The Wave suffered close losses to good teams last season — including 2-point losses to Gonzaga and Arizona. It was more of the same for Romar’s team this season with an early triple-overtime loss to UCLA (when the Bruins still had a healthy Chris Smith) and a 5-point loss to San Diego State. The Wave then endured a front-loaded schedule in the West Coast Conference given COVID cancellations — they still played Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s twice and BYU three times (including the conference tournament) but did not benefit from getting to load up on the bottom half of the conference. Pepperdine did defeat Saint Mary’s and BYU in the regular season — but they lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Cougars in the West Coast Conference tournament, despite a spectacular effort from Ross. The Wave should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Pepperdine has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with one day or less of rest. The Wave are playing their best basketball of the season now in March with four wins in their last five games. They have scored at least 77 points in each of their last five games while averaging 81.4 PPG with a 48.5% shooting clip over that span. Pepperdine has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Wave have also been more effective on the road. While Pepperdine ranks 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they improve to 66th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150. Pepperdine is also 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Coastal Carolina has the burden of playing without rest after a game that required overtime — and, as it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Chanticleers have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Overs. This is a big step-up in competition for this team whose best opponent this season was a Wofford team that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks at 126th in the nation — and they lost by 11 points. Pomeroy ranks Pepperdine as the 105th team nationally. Twenty-two of the 25 teams Coastal Carolina played this season are ranked 211th or lower by Pomeroy.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and the Wave have covered the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral court as a favorite. 25* CBB CBI Game of the Year with the Pepperdine Wave (610) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-30) had their two-game losing streak with a 100-86 loss to Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (19-23) has lost nine of their last thirteen games after their 140-113 loss at Milwaukee as a 7-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit made only 4 of their 25 shots from behind the arc against the Bulls with their 39.0% shooting percentage being the lowest mark in their last six games. And the 46.2% field goal percentage that Chicago managed was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Pistons should play better tonight for head coach Dwane Casey who is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Pistons have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss at home. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Casey is doing a great coaching job with this team with the organization looking ahead to the NBA draft. His players consistently play with effort — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Rodney McGruder is out tonight and Wayne Ellington is questionable — but Casey still has several rag-tag players that are proving quality minutes. Jerami Grant is enjoying a breakout season with his chance to demonstrate his offensive skills on top of his elite defensive talent. Deion Wright has been a surprise. Dennis Smith is showing flashes of the promise that made him a top-ten draft pick by the Knicks. Mason Plumlee has been solid. Indiana is not at full health with two starters, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner, questionable with back and ankle injuries, respectively. The Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And while Indiana has scored at least 105 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight contests. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries continue to hold this Pacers’ team back. Missing T.J. Warren all season has been a big blow to their offense whose limitations were why they did not retain Nate McMillan as their head coach. They recently got Caris LeVert into the mix — but potentially not having Brogdon and/or Turner really hurts after both were out against the Bucks. Brogdon has been the team’s leading scorer in his previous eight games with a 22.5 PPG scoring average while nailing 54.3% of his shots and 48.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Turner has been a pleasant surprise this year after being on the trading block to begin the season. Even if both players get cleared to play tonight, Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (30-13) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 101-100 victory at New York as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Golden State (22-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 111-103 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Expect a lower-scoring game between teams who are both dealing with missing key players. The 76ers are without both Joel Embiid and Seth Curry tonight as both battle knee injuries. Philly will miss Curry’s outside shooting. And the Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris-led Sixers are playing better on defense with Embiid on the shelf. The 76ers have held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting and just 101.8 PPG which is 7.9 PPG below what they are allowing for the season. Philadelphia has played four of their last five games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival. The Sixers have also played four straight games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Golden State was without Steph Curry on Saturday as he deals with a tailbone injury. The Warriors made only 34.4% of their shots against the Grizzlies without Curry. Curry is out again tonight — so Golden State lacks a reliable scorer. As it is, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State should have fresh legs for their defensive efforts tonight — they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while the Warriors have attempted at least 90 shots in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Head coach Steve Kerr does get some reinforcements back with Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall back from quarantine. Kerr needs the bigs — and this should help their interior defense while freeing up Draymond Green to defend either Harris or Simmons. Golden State may play at a slower pace tonight since they do not have to resort to up-tempo small-ball with all their bigs on the shelf. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-13) has won two of their last three games after their 63-54 win against UConn as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (25-6) has won seven in a row with their 68-55 victory against Iona as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland Unders have been very for us over the last few weeks when the Terrapins have away from College Park. They offer the valuable combination of being undervalued on defense when playing on the road while being overvalued on offense. While Maryland ranked just 94th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to eighth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.2 PPG on 39.1% shooting even after Michigan torched them at a 51.7% clip in the Big Ten tournament. They rank 10th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 23rd ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 83rd in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.2 PPG on the road on 42.7% shooting which is -6.4 PPG below their season average. This foundation does not make us zombies to Maryland Unders moving forward — the circumstances warrant the play. The Terrapins continued to play tough defense by holding the Huskies on Saturday to just 32.3% shooting — that was the eleventh time this season they held an opponent under 60 points. But Maryland overachieved on offense by nailing 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They are due for some regression on that front. The Terrapins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Alabama made 47.2% of their shots in their win against the Gaels which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Even better, Nate Oats’ team shares the same identity as Maryland in that they play better defense but sees their offensive efficiency decline when playing on the road. Alabama is 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they are third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. But while the Tide are 32nd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 60th nationally in that metric on the road where they make only 41.8% of their shots. The Crimson Tide’s defense is trending in the right direction after holding Iona to just 39.0 shooting. Alabama’s last five opponents are averaging 65.8 PPG on 39.4% shooting from the field.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. The Terrapins have also played 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). THE SITUATION: Florida State (17-6) has won two of their last three games after their 64-54 win against UNC-Greensboro as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. Colorado (23-8) has won seven of their last eight games after their 96-73 win against Georgetown as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Fascinating situation here with metrics guru Ken Pomeroy projecting Colorado as a 2-point winner with another analytics guru I peruse projecting the Bufaloes as a 4-point winner. Yet the numbers I lean most heavily on — that values home/road splits the most — has Florida State a 1-point favorite which correlates with what the oddsmakers are thinking. I am with the oddsmakers in this one. While Colorado is 5th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, ranking 7th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they drop to 15th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency while ranking 21st on offense and 38th on defense. And the Buffaloes come off a wild outlier performance on Saturday where they torched the nets against a helpless Hoyas team by nailing 11 of their 17 shots from behind the arc. Colorado made a season-high 60.7% of their shots in that game — but I fully expect that the Regression Gods will be making an appearance tonight. The Seminoles are 26th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.1%. Their ability to use all five players on the court to switch off makes it very difficult on opponents. They are the tallest team in the nation according to Pomeroy’s numbers. Colorado is led by star guard McKinley Wright — but he’s just 6’0 who will likely struggle against the length that Florida State deploys. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Then there is head coach Tad Boyle. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 postseason games under Boyle including four of their last five games in the Big Dance. Florida State did not make a 3-pointer on Saturday against the Spartans — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone when they make their appearance tonight. The Seminoles are sixth in the nation by making 39.0% of their 3-pointers, so they will start falling. Florida State only pulled down five offensive rebounds in that game as well — no wonder I passed on that situation. The Seminoles are 16th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not rebounding more than five offensive boards in their last game. Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 65 points. And in their last 6 games where it was just their second game in eight days, the Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: I think Leonard Hamilton is the most underrated head coach in any sport in the country. His teams tend to be overvalued as big favorites — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or dog up to three points. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (828) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). THE SITUATION: Oregon (20-6) advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday after VCU pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID case. The Ducks saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in a 75-64 upset loss to Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Iowa (22-8) defeated Grand Canyon by an 86-74 score as a 17.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: I am not worried about how the cancellation of Friday’s game impacted the Ducks — I see it as just another day of rest that should help with their legs in the second half. Oregon only made 41.7% of their shots against the Beavers in the Pac-12 Championship Game — far below their 47.2% shooting percentage for the season. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by double-digits in a game where they were laying at least 7 points. Oregon was hit pretty hard by COVID which interrupted their season twice. And those circumstances were in addition to them dealing with some injuries with Eric Williams banged up for much of the season and Will Richardson out until early February with a thumb injury. The Ducks have won eleven of their last thirteen games since February 6th while exceeding point spread expectations in five straight games before getting upset in the Pac-12 tournament. Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Ducks tend to play better on the road this season. While they rank 56th in Adjusted Net Efficiency in Eugene, they improve to 40th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road. They have a dynamic set of players that ranked 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Oregon has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games played on a neutral court. Iowa made 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the best scoring effort in their last 16 games. But the Hawkeyes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Iowa is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — but they are held back on defense given the limitations of Luke Garza in the interior. The Hawkeyes ranked 60th in the nation and seventh in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This suspect play on defense explains why they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Furthermore, Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when favored — and they are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While I don’t put too much stock into conference performance after three days in the Big Dance, I certainly have observed how well the Pac-12 is doing — and how disappointing the Big Ten has been. Oregon has the better head coach this afternoon — and not only are the Ducks 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games, but they have covered 6 straight games in the Big Dance under Dana Altman as the underdog. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games when favored under Fran McCaffrey. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Second Round Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (823) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (824). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). THE SITUATION: Villanova (17-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 73-63 win against Winthrop as a 6-point favorite on Friday. North Texas (18-9) has won five games in a row with their 78-69 upset win in overtime against Purdue on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas has now pulled off two straight upsets that needed overtime as they pulled off the same to defeat Western Kentucky to win the Conference USA tournament. I suspect the bubble bursts for the Mean Green tonight. Before their victory against the young Boilermakers on Friday, the best team that North Texas had beat was probably Louisiana Tech that metrics guru Ken Pomeroy ranks as the 74th best team in the nation. They lost by double-digits against Arkansas and West Virginia earlier in the season — and they lost to 8 points to North Texas. Grant McCasland is a great coach, and it is a nice story for this team. But they turn the ball over in 19.9% of their possessions — and that number rises to 20.6% of their possessions on the road, ranking 238th in the nation. They also do not get many freebies as they rank 283rd in free throw rate. Turnovers and lack of free throws are giving too many scoring opportunities to a Wildcats team that ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Texas did hold the Boilermaker stock 36.2% shooting which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last three games. But not only have they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to make better than 37% of their shots but they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 37%. As expected, Jay Wright made adjustments to his schemes with the eight days he had since losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Georgetown. With point guard Collin Gillespie out the rest of the season, Wright had the offense structured around senior Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who is having an All-American worthy season. He scored 22 points on Friday. Sophomore Justin Moore is a rising star who can handle the point guard duties. This is Jay Wright. This is still Villanova. The program is loaded with talent. There is a reason this team has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the Big Dance — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when favored in the NCAA Tournament. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. In their two previous upset losses before the tournament, the one against Providence was after Moore suffered an injury that kept him out of the second half. Their upset loss to Georgetown then was by one point against a Hoyas team that looks much better ten days later. Don’t overreact to one close loss.

FINAL TAKE: Villanova is 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games when playing on a neutral court — and North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. 25* CBB TNT Game of the Year with the Villanova Wildcats (804) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 79-66 win against Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog last Friday. UConn (15-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 59-56 upset loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland allowed the Wolverines to make 51.7 % of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 14 games. The Terrapins were second in the Big Ten by allowing only 65.0 PPG on 40.9% shooting — so they should play better on that end of the court tonight. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten opponent. The Terrapins have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after what Michigan did to them. They rank 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UConn had played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. And while the Huskies had covered five games in a row before their upset loss to the Bluejays, they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. UConn led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 5th best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But UConn only makes 40% of their shots on the road which results in 67.7 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect this game to be a slog between two head coaches who prefer slow, grinding games at the core of their coaching DNA. The Bruins held the Beavers to 42.9% shooting in their overtime loss last week. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And while the Total was at 133 in their loss to Oregon State, UCLA has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Head coach Mick Cronin lost a piece on offense with Jalen Hill not playing in this tournament for personal reasons. He only scores 6.1 PPG but he crashes the offensive glass for the Bruins. Their leading scorer, Johnny Juzang, has not been at 100% after missing the USC game and playing only 24 minutes against the Beavers. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Michigan State (15-12) has played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Spartans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Michigan State has played six straight Unders under head coach Tom Izzo, they have then played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Spartans really miss Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of this shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State is scoring only 59.8 PPG with a 38.6% shooting percentage in their last five games. But the Spartans did see their scoring defense improve by more than 4 PPG in these last five games as they have held those opponents to 66.4 PPG. The Spartans do have the length with their guards to present problems for Bruins’ point guard Tyger Campbell. Michigan State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Spartans have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has played 4 straight NCAA Tournament games Under the Total in the Izzo era. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). THE SITUATION: Norfolk State (16-7) has won six straight games after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament with their 71-63 victory against Morgan State as a 2.5-point favorite on March 13th. Appalachian State (17-11) has won four in a row after taking the Sun Belt conference tournament title with their 80-73 victory against Georgia State as a 7-point underdog on March 8th. This play-in game in the First Four earns the 16th seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE NORFOLK STATE PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State found lightning in a bottle in the Sun Belt tournament with three straight upset victories against Texas State, Coastal Carolina, and then the Panthers to claim the title. They limped into the conference tournament with six losses in their previous seven games. I expect an emotional letdown for the Mountaineers now. They have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after an upset victory against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Appalachian ranks 217th in the nation in the advanced metrics I rely on — yet in their most recent ten games, they fall to 236th during that span. They only made 43.6% of their shots against Georgia State but that was still tied for the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Mountaineers struggle to score baskets. They are making just 37.8% of their shots in their last five games. They rank 227th nationally with a 3-point shooting percentage of 32.6% while ranking 283rd in the nation by making just 46.7% of their shots inside the arc. Their shooting struggles intensify when playing away from home where they make just 39.3% of their shots. And while they rank 192nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 241st in the nation in that metric when playing on the road. Appalachian State played better at home this season where they ranked 193rd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they fall to 239th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Norfolk State ranks 208th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and while they rank 252nd when playing at home, they improve to 182nd nationally when playing on the road. They only made 42.4% of their shots in winning the MEAC Championship Game which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Spartans are still making 46.6% of their shots in their last five games. This is a good shooting team that ranks 32nd in the nation by making 37.4% of their 3-pointers. This is also a team this improving on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 37.6% shooting which resulted in only 58.4 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 65 points. Norfolk State has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They are led by a do-it-all senior point guard in Devante Carter who scores 15.5 PPG while adding 5.3 RPG and 4.0 APG. The Spartans have balanced scoring with six players scoring at least 7.6 PPG. Overall, this team has a nice pedigree to advance (and earn the right to lose to Gonzaga on Saturday).

FINAL TAKE: Norfolk State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Game of the Year with the Norfolk State Spartans (711) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). THE SITUATION: Dallas (20-18) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-99 loss against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (26-15) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Clippers on Monday — and this is a good opportunity to zig-zag with the Mavs. Dallas was held scoreless in the last 3:15 minutes of that game while missing all five of their shots. They only took five free throws all game. Luka Doncic had an off-game for him by making only 9 of 23 shots from the field including just 4 of 11 from 3-point range. The Mavericks allowed the Clippers to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. While under-the-radar, Dallas has played much better on defense as of late under head coach Rick Carlisle. Over their last ten games, the Mavericks rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Finally getting healthy has helped after this team has dealt with a host of injuries and their share of COVID issues. When Carlisle can start Doncic with a healthy Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, and Maxi Kleiber, they have won nine of those thirteen games. In their last 15 games, Dallas is 11-4 while ranking sixth in the league with their Net Efficiency Rating. They should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They host the Clippers again where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Los Angeles’ enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last five games by making 50% of their shots. But the Clippers have been consistently inconsistent — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are not at full strength with Patrick Beverley out with a knee injury and Serge Ibaka questionable with a back issue.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (40) versus the Montreal Canadiens (39). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (17-9-2) comes off a 4-2 loss at home to Montreal on Monday. Montreal (13-8-7) had lost nine of their last twelve games before their triumph against the Jets.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Winnipeg has still been playing well — they have won eight of their last twelve games even after the setback on Monday. They have bounced-back to win 9 of their last 10 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Jets have also won 5 of their last 6 games when playing their third game in four days. Conner Hellebuyck will be between the pipes tonight — he has a 2.49 goals-against-average with a .913 save percentage in 12 starts at home this season. Winnipeg has won 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog — and they have pulled the upset in 7 of their last 10 games as a money-line underdog. Montreal has lost 6 straight games after a victory — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. The Canadiens have also lost 4 of their last 5 games when playing their fourth game in six days. They stay on the road where they have lost 7 of their last 9 road games — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg has won 20 of their last 28 games when avenging a loss by at least two goals — and they have won 5 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Jets have lost their last two games to the Canadiens this month — but they have won 13 of their last 19 games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* NHL North Division Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Winnipeg Jets (40) versus the Montreal Canadiens (39). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708) in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (20-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a 61-57 upset loss to North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Saint Mary’s (14-9) last played on March 8th when they lost to Gonzaga by a 78-55 score as an 18.5-point underdog in the West Coast Conference tournament semifinals. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky took the Mean Green to overtime despite making only 34.0% of their shots in what was a season-low. And while they held North Texas to just 39.3% shooting, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. Head coach Rick Stansbury’s team should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after an upset loss to a Conference USA rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 60 points in their last game. The Hilltoppers are led by an NBA prospect in junior Charles Bassey who scores 17.7 PPG and pulls down 11.5 RPG. They will be without senior Carson Williams who is out for this game due to personal reasons — but the senior was only scoring 7.5 PPG, and Stansbury’s team is blessed with depth. Western Kentucky beat Alabama earlier in the season so the potential is high for this team. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games as an underdog. Saint Mary’s may have more trouble getting up for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Gaels made only 36.1% of their shots against the Bulldogs -- but they have not shot better than 39.5% of their shots in five straight games. Saint Mary’s replaced their top three scorers from last season — and they simply were not a good shooting team this year. After ranking 4th in the nation by nailing 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc last year, the Gaels plummeted to 328th nationally by making only 29.3% of their 3-pointers. The problem for Randy Bennett is that the Hilltoppers interior play is the strength of their defense with Bassey patrolling the paint. Western Kentucky limited their opponents to just 45.8% shooting inside the arc, 38th best nationally. As it is, Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after not shooting better than 40% in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after not shooting better than 40% in four straight contests. To compound matters, the Gaels played their best when at home where they were 9-3 and ranked 40th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Saint Mary’s had a losing 5-6 record away from home while dropping to ranking 115th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. Their offensive numbers tell the story: while ranking 128th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they are 269th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Gaels lack quality wins — their highest-profile win was against Colorado State who is in the NIT. They had troubling losses to Pepperdine and Santa Clara. The oddsmakers are relying on statistical projection models that are vulnerable because of the lack of a large sample size of non-conference play that can help accurately gauge relative conference strengths. I suspect Saint Mary’s gets exposed in this game as being just not very good. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in the postseason. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games as an underdog playing on a neutral court. 25* CBB NIT First Round Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (707) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224258) minus the goal-line versus Lazio (224257) in the second leg of the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the opening leg of their Round of 16 pairing on the road by a 4-1 score on February 23rd. Lazio must match that effort to force the sudden death tie-breaker — with a victory by four goals being the recipe to advance without extra-time.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are in as good of form right now as they have been since winning the Champions League last summer. Since defeating Lazio in the opening leg, Bayern Munich has won all three of their matches by at least two goals. They have scored 12 goals over that span with Robert Lewandowski scoring six times himself. They come off a 3-1 win at Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Sunday. The Bavarians are in first place in the German top-flight by four points. They have scored 74 goals in 25 league matches. Bayern Munich has also scored 22 goals in their seven Champions League matches this season. They should score multiple times in this one. Hosting this match also helps. The Bavarians have won all six of their home matches in Champions League play under manager Hans Flick who took over late in 20219. They have scored 18 times in those six matches while conceding just three times. Lazio has lost four of their last six matches including a round setback to a Bologna side that is only in 12th place in the Italian Serie A. I Biancocelesti is in just seventh place in Serie A with a subpar W1-D2-L4 mark against the top-four teams in the current table. The underlying metrics even suggest they are slightly overachieving since their expected goal differential is only eighth-best in the league. They are averaging only 1.13 expected goals per match. Ciro Immobile leads the team with 14 goals but he is not in form after going scoreless in his last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was without Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry in the first leg — yet they still dominated that match. While Flick may call for his team to emphasize defensive-tactics, Lazio’s need to play without caution should create plenty of counter-attacking scoring chances. Besides, the Bavarians’ approach this season has been that a good offense removes the need for a good defense. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (224258) minus the goal-line versus Lazio (224257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). THE SITUATION: Portland (22-16) has lost two of their last three games with their 114-112 upset loss at Minnesota on Sunday as a 5-point favorite. New Orleans (17-22) comes off a 135-115 upset victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Pelicans made a whopping 65.4% of their shots against the Clippers which was a season-best for them. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games on the road after pulling off an upset victory by double-digits as an underdog of at least 6 points. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — so maintaining a basic level of consistency has been a problem for first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy. Additionally, the Pelicans do not fare well with a likely scoring-fest on the horizon. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. With this game featuring two of the bottom three teams in the NBA in Defensive Rating and the total opening at 240(!), this does not bode well for the Pelicans. This team struggles on defense despite having the coaching wizardry of Van Gundy who coached a pretty good Orlando team in the 1990s. New Orleans is third-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their 3-pointers. Here comes the Blazers who are second in the NBA with a 46.5% mark from behind the arc and by generating 42.2% of their points from 3-point shots. The Pelicans go on the road where they are just 5-12 this season while allowing their home hosts to make 48.4% of their shots which results in 116.5 PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Portland only made 43.8% of their shots in their embarrassing upset to a Timberwolves team that has a strong claim in being the worst in the league. That was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Trail Blazers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in four days. And while Portland has allowed at least 106 points in six straight games, they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. They do get a shot in the arm with the expected return of C.J. McCollum who has been out for the last 25 games with a foot injury. In his 13 games this season, the star guard averaged 26.7 Points-Per-Game while contributing 5 Assists-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with Zach Collins and Jusef Nurkic still out and Harry Giles III upgraded to questionable tonight. Yet after a slow 10-9 start to the season, the Blazers have still won twelve of their last nineteen with Damian Lillard leading the way while getting nice help from Gary Trent and Carmelo Anthony. Portland returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without J.J. Reddick who is dealing with a neck injury — losing his 3-point shooting will not help Zion Williamson’s attempt to have his 2-pointers count more than the 3-pointers from Lillard and McCollum. The Pelicans were upset by the Blazers on February 17th by a 126-124 as a 4.5-point home favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA TNT Tuesday Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 match. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg between these two teams on February 24th by a 2-0 score. Borussia Monchengladbach must win by two goals in this second leg to advance — and a 2-0 win would trigger extra-time with both teams even the goal differential and away-goals tie-breakers. This match is being played on a neutral field in Budapest given travel restrictions Germany impacting Monchengladbach.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City got back playing their stingy defense on Saturday in a 3-0 victory at Fulham. The Cityzens held the Cottagers to just 0.26 expected goals (xG). Man City had conceded goals in their previous four EPL matches but manager Pep Guardiola has been aggressively rotation his starting XI over the last month with the English Premier League title likely in hand. The main priority for this club has shifted to winning the Champions League which is an accomplishment that has eluded Guardiola in his tenure here. He rested several key players on Saturday — so this is the A-Team today. Man City is at their best defensively when John Stones and Ruben Dias are paired at center-back. They were together on Saturday and they should form the heart of a four-player backline today. Since a loss to Tottenham in December, the Cityzens have conceded just 0.67 xGA (expected goals allowed) in 22 EPL matches. In their seven Champions League matches this season, Man City has an xGA of 0.31 with six straight clean sheets. Some of this is a result of tactics: Guardiola has reeled-in much of his aggressive pressing attack this season given early-season injuries in the back and facing the reality of a compressed fixture schedule that would challenge the fitness of his players. Pep can’t help but love the new defensive identity of his team. I considered taking Man City minus the goal-line — but the Cityzens are not blowing out teams. They have not scored more than three goals in eight of their last ten matches across all competitions. Guardiola is content with clean sheet wins. Borussia Monchengladbach is a mess with six straight losses. Die Fohlen has folded ever since manager Marco Rose announced that he was leaving for rival Borussia Dortmund at the end of the season. This slide has some whispering that Dortmund may have overreached with the hire — and this dynamic persuaded me to conclude that Rose will not risk playing aggressively since that could result in an embarrassing loss. Look for Monchengladbach to be pragmatic — and this has been their tactical approach as of late. In their last six matches in the Bundesliga, they have produced just 6.54 xG — but they have conceded only 6.53 xGA. That defensive mark is sixth-best in the German top-flight over that span which is better than their 8th best mark defensively for the season. They recently played to 1-0 losses to top-six teams Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund — and I think that is a hint to how Rose will play this match.

FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach only allowed 10 shots in the first leg to the Cityzens with Man City managing just 1.5 xG. But Die Fohlen only managed three shots resulting in 0.20 xG. Man City has seen under 3.5 combined goals in five of their last seven Champions League matches and ten of their last 18 EPL contests. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (25-15) has lost four of their last five games after their 135-116 upset loss at New Orleans as a 6-point favorite last night. Dallas (20-17) has won five of their last six games after their 116-113 upset victory at Denver as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst defensive game of the season yesterday by allowing the Pelicans to nail 65.4% of their shots. They made only 45.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Clippers should play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Clippers have coved the point spread in 42 of their last 60 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss at home. Playing without rest should not be a problem for this team as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. The Clippers need to reverse their recent slide — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. LA has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. They stay on the road where they are now 12-9 but with an average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by double-digits as a road dog. The Mavericks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Dallas is playing much better basketball now that they are healthy again after dealing with a handful of players in quarantine — but they remain not very good on the defensive end of the court. They rank 24th in the NBA in Defensive Rating — and they tend to not do well when getting dragged into high-scoring games. The Mavericks have seen at least 219 combined points scored in three straight games. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing two straight games when at least 215 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Mavericks return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will remember suffering their worst loss in franchise history on December 27th in a 124-73 loss at home as a 3-point favorite. LA was without Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley in that game — and Serge Ibaka played only eight minutes. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Mavericks. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month on the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Flyers (7) versus the New York Rangers (8). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (13-9-3) has lost two straight and four of their last five after a 5-4 loss to Washington on Saturday. New York (11-12-3) ended a three-game losing streak with a 4-0 win at Boston on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLYERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Philadelphia should respond with a strong effort tonight after being behind the eight-ball all game against the Capitals with 2-0, 3-1, and 5-2 deficits. The Flyers have won 11 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Philly has also won 14 of their last 18 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They go back on the road where they have won 15 of their last 22 games — and they have won 22 of their last 29 road games when favored. Carter Hart will be between the pipes tonight. He has struggled this season with a 3.60 Goals-Against-Average and a .887 save percentage. But this is the same goalie who sported a 2.23 GAA with a .926 save percentage in 14 playoff starts in bubble last fall. The Flyers are scoring — they have scored 12 goals in their last three games with at least three in each contest. Philadelphia has won 16 of their last 23 games on the road after winning at least three goals in three straight games. The Flyers have also won 37 of their last 54 games against teams with a losing record. New York may be due for a letdown as they have lost 10 of their last 12 games at home after a win against a divisional rival. The Rangers have also lost 10 of their last 14 games after a win by at least three goals — including losing four of those five games, under those circumstances, this season. This is New York’s fourth game since Wednesday — and they have lost 7 straight games when playing their fourth game in six days. The Rangers return home where they have lost 5 of their last 7 games. This is the first game back at Madison Square Garden since March 2nd after playing their last six games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 22 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. And while they have played two straight Under, they have lost 6 straight home games after playing two straight Unders. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 home games after not allowing more than one goal in their last game. With Igor Shesterkin not ready to come off the Injured Reserve with his groin injury, Keith Kinkaid will get a spot start as the team’s third goaltender. Kinkaid has a 1.53 Goals-Against-Average with a .933 save percentage in four games which includes two starts. Kinkaid has been a backup for two seasons after posting a 4.24 GAA with a .875 save percentage as a starter in New Jersey two seasons ago. Kinkaid will try to lead a team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers will have revenge on their minds after losing in Philadelphia by a 4-3 score on February 24th — but New York has lost 30 of their last 46 games when avenging a one-goal loss including losing five of their eight revenge opportunities from a one-goal loss this season. 25* NHL Monday NBC Sports Network Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Flyers (7) versus the New York Rangers (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658) in the championship game in the Big Ten tournament. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (21-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 68-67 upset win against Michigan as a 5-point underdog yesterday. Illinois (22-6) has won five in a row with their 82-71 win against Iowa as a 3-point favorite yesterday. The Big Ten tournament is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State won yesterday despite making only 35.1% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last three games and their second-lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games. The Buckeyes are making 46.2% of their shots away from home — and they rank second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Chris Holtmann’s team can score. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes have also covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in five days. This is a veteran, battle-tested team — they have won 30 of their last 41 games with 32 of those games in the rugged Big Ten over the last two seasons. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when getting up to 6 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in a victory against a Big Ten opponent in their last game. And while the Illini raced out to a 45-37 halftime lead yesterday, they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games on the road after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. Illinois has covered the point spread in six straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Furthermore, the Illini has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court with the number in the 145 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 25 games played on a neutral court as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points, Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of these games. The Illini ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they fall to 26th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. This team also makes only 68.8% of their free throws, ranking 247th nationally. If Illinois is leading in this game, the Buckeyes may still be able to scratch out a point spread cover by playing the fouling game. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 tournament championship games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season showdowns with Ohio State winning in Champagne by an 87-81 score on January 16th before getting upset in Columbus on March 6th by a 73-68 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 61 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (657) plus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633) in the championship game of the Big West tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Santa Barbara (20-4) has won four games in a row with their 71-55 win against Cal-Davis as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday. UC-Irvine (17-8) has won six in a row after their 78-61 win against UC-Riverside as a 1.5-point favorite last night. The Big West tournament is being played in the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAUCHOS MINUS THE POINTS: UC-Santa Barbara won last night despite making only 42.6% of their shots which was tied for their lowest mark in their last four games. The Gauchos are still making 47.3% of their shots on the road which is generating 75.1 PPG — and they are outscoring their opponents away from home by +6.9 PPG. UC-Santa Barbara’s offense has executed much better when playing away from home. While the Gauchos rank 136th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they improve to 67th in offensive efficiency when playing on the road. UC-Santa Barbara is 37th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 53.4% — and they are also 14th nationally in free throw rate. The Gauchos should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after winning at least three in a row. And in their last 11 games after winning at least four in a row, head coach Joe Pasternack’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. The Gauchos did not commit one turnover last night either — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after not turning the ball over in their previous game. Additionally, UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. The Anteaters are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while the Anteaters have covered the point spread in twice of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after covering two of their last three games. UC-Irvine made 46% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But this team makes only 41.1% of their shots on the road which generates only 66.5 PPG. While the Anteaters rank 110th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they plummet to a 144th ranking in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 119th nationally when playing at home — they are 272nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. Overall, UC-Irvine ranks 284th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 47.3%. The Anteaters’ strength is their defense — they have held their last four opponents to no better than 37.4% shooting. But UC-Irvine has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing their last four opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.

FINAL TAKE: UC-Irvine swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but both of those games were played on their home court in December. UC-Santa Barbara has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big West Game of the Year with the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (634) minus the points versus the UC-Irvine Anteaters (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630) in the championship game in the Western Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (12-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 78-62 win against Utah Valley State as a 6-point favorite last night. Grand Canyon (16-6) has won three of their last four games with their 81-47 win against Seattle as a 6.5-point favorite last night. The WAC tournament is being played at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Mexico State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Aggies have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread when laying the points in two straight games. New Mexico State is improving on defense last in the season after holding the Wolverines to just 29.8% shooting last night. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.7% shooting which is limiting these foes to only 59.2 PPG. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Grand Canyon made 50% of their shots last night which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Antelopes have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Grand Canyon is also playing their best defense of the season in March after holding Seattle to just 28.3% shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.8% shooting which has produced only 60.8 PPG. The Antelopes have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Grand Canyon has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Antelopes have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept the two games in the regular season — and New Mexico State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614) in the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Iona (11-5) won their fifth game in a row with their 70-64 win against Niagara as a 6-point favorite yesterday. Fairfield (10-16) pulled off their fourth straight upset yesterday in a 52-47 upset victory against St. Peter’s as a 6-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

REASONS TO TAKE  THE GAELS MINUS THE POINTS: Fairfield upset Manhattan twice in a row before dispatching Monmouth before the St. Peter’s yesterday. Not exactly a Murderer’s Row — St. Peter’s is ranked 220 by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy while he has Monmouth 228 and Manhattan at 316. Iona is a significant step up in competition — Pomeroy ranks them 185th with some of the other power rankings I use placing them in the 140s. Look for the Stags’ bubble to burst. They are just 9-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 50 points. The Peacocks are a great defensive team — but these Gaels are in another class when it comes to the offense so this will be a much harder test on the Stags’ defensive play this afternoon. As it is, Fairfield ranks 273rd nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is worse than their 258th ranking in that metric when playing at home. The Stags are going to struggle to keep up as they only make 39.8% of their shots on the road which is generating just 60.5 PPG. Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. And in their last 5 games when playing their third game in five days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. Iona leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are averaging 75.2 PPG in their last five games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row after conference rivals. The Gaels have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their second game in three days. Iona has been more effective away from home. While they rank 175th in Adjusted Net Efficiency at home, they rise to 122nd nationally in that metric on the road. They rank 41st nationally and tops in the conference in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 36.3% shooting which is resulting in only 63.0 PPG. While they are outscoring their opponents by +6.1 PPG this season, they have outscored their last five opponents by +12.2 PPG during their winning streak. Iona is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Iona will also have a chip on their shoulder to avenge a 67-52 upset loss at home to Fairfield on December 12th as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gaels ahem covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when avenging an upset loss as a favorite of at least 7 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Iona Gaels (613) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865) in the Semifinals of the Western Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah Valley State (10-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 74-64 loss at Grand Canyon as a 7-point underdog. New Mexico State (11-7) won their fourth straight game as well as their sixth of their last seven in a 77-61 victory against Utah Rio Grande Valley last night as a 12-point favorite. The WAC tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah Valley State is rested and motivated by revenge tonight. In their last loss to Grand Canyon last week, they allowed the Antelopes to make 50% of their shots in the worst defensive effort in their last six games. Utah Valley State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Wolverines have also covered the points spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Utah Valley State tends to play better on the road where they rank 169th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency as opposed to their 198th ranking when playing at home. The Wolverines are just 271st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they climb to 110th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. It is as if head coach Mark Madsen has constructed his team to be the slayers of this New Mexico State team that has been the perennial powerhouse in the WAC. The Aggies are typically one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation — this season, they rank 11th in the nation by rebounding 36.0% of their missed shots. But the Wolverines limit their opponents to rebounding only 23.9% of their missed shots, 33rd in the nation. Utah Valley also draws tons of fouls — they are third nationally in free throw rate. New Mexico State is 202nd in the nation in defensive free throw rate. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And while they make a healthy 47.5% of their shots, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. New Mexico State made 52% of their shots last night which was the highest field goal percentage in their last five games. But the Aggies are still only making 40.7% of their shots on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance tonight. New Mexico State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a WAC foe by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win by at least 15 points. New Mexico State has won their last four games by double-digits — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning four in a row by 10 or more points. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 130s.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season games with the Wolverines winning the first game on February 19th by a 69-66 score as a 9-point underdog before losing to the New Mexico State, 67-60, on February 20th. Look for this third and final meeting to be a close game where having the points will be very valuable. 25* CBB WAC Game of the Year is on the Utah Valley State Wolverines (866) plus the points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (865). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853) in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament. THE SITUATION: Florida State (15-5) advanced in their quarterfinals matchup with Duke when the Blue Devils pulled out of the tournament after a positive COVID test yesterday. North Carolina (18-9) has won three in a row after their 81-73 win against Virginia Tech as a -0.5-point favorite yesterday. The ACC tournament is being played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES MINUS THE POINTS: Florida State not only dodged Duke yesterday but they gained a situational edge with an extra day of rest against a Tar Heels’ team playing their third game in three days. Leonard Hamilton may very well be the most underrated head coach in the country (all sports) -- and his teams play with energy and a fast pace. Look for the Seminoles to pull away late in this game — they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing just their second game in eight days. Florida State will be anxious to get the back taste out of their mouth when they last played on Saturday when they were upset at Notre Dame by an 83-73 score as a 5.5-point favorite in a result that cost them the top seed in this tournament. The Seminoles allowed the Irish to make 42.6% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games under Hamilton. North Carolina may be due for a letdown after their nice recent run. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning two in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after winning three in a row. And while North Carolina has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering four of their last five. Roy Williams’ team leads the nation in offensive rebounding — and they are at their best when controlling the glass. They have outrebounded their two opponents in the ACC Tournament by 11 and 23 boards. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least rebounds. Florida State pounds the offensive glass as well — they rank 16th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. North Carolina ranks third in the ACC and 60th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they drop to 12th in the ACC and 76th nationally when playing on the road. This is not a good shooting team — they only make 31.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is 273rd in the nation. They rely on shots inside the arc where they make 49.5% of their 2-point attempts — but that is only 101st in the nation. The Seminoles play tough interior defense — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 44.2% shooting inside the arc. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on a neutral court as an underdog getting up to 3 points. And while Florida State averages 79.6 PPG, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who score at least 77 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season encounters — but North Carolina won the last battle in a 78-70 upset win in Chapel Hill as a 2-point dog on February 27th. Florida State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Florida State Seminoles (854) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (15-9) won their second game in a row along with their sixth in their last nine contests with their 61-55 win against Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite last night. Louisiana Tech (21-6) has won six in a row with their 75-69 win against FAU as a 7-point favorite yesterday. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green Under last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 58th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green allowed the Monarchs to make 44.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. North Texas are sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 79th nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. They only made 38.2% of their shots last night. In their last five games, they are averring only 64.2 PPG while making 43.8% of their shots — a drop off of more than six PPG from their season average where they are making 48.2% of their shots. The Mean Green have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, North Texas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. And in their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while last night’s game finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. Louisiana Tech ranks 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they improve to 24th nationally in that metric on the road. But while they rank 91st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that mark plummets to 240th when on the road. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech will be looking to avenge a 57-55 loss to the Mean Green in Denton on February 6th. The Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (14-9) defeated Middle Tennessee last night, 76-56, as a 15.5-point favorite in their opening game of this tournament. Old Dominion (15-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 60-57 loss at Western Kentucky as a 7-point underdog. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 57th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green held the Blue Raiders to just a 34.0% field goal percentage last night. North Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 11 games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas plays excellent half-court defense. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.4% — and by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc, they rank 21st in the nation. The Mean Green are also sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 71st nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. They made 54.5% of their shots last night which is the best shooting mark in their last four games — yet it is due for regression tonight. North Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Old Dominion has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Monarchs only made 38.9% of their shots but that continued a disturbing trend for them when playing away from home. Old Dominion ranks 138th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they drop to 236th in that metric on the road. But simultaneously, their defense improves when playing away from home where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as compared to their 164th ranking when playing at home. And in their last five games, the Monarchs have held their opponents to just 61.6 PPG on 37.8% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has played 40 of their last 52 games on a neutral court Under the Total — including 10 of their last 11 games in tournament action. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. North Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on a neutral court when favored. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Niagara (80-10) takes the court again for the first time since February 21st when they had their two-game winning streak snapped at home to Siena by a 66-61 score as a 5-point underdog. Marist (12-8) won their third in a row on March 1st in a 65-52 win against Quinnipiac as a 2-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Purple Eagles to be rusty in facing live competition for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest between games. They allowed Siena to make 50% of their shots the last time out so tightening up on defense will be a priority. Niagara has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival including six of those eight situations this season. The Purple Eagles struggle to shoot the basketball away from home. While they rank third in the conference and 166th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to sixth in the conference and 280th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. They have an effective field goal percentage of 42.9%, ranking 335th in the nation, when playing in true road games or on neutral courts. And they choose to get back on defense rather than crash the glass — they are 287th in the nation by rebounding only 22.7% of their missed shots on the road. They average only 59.7 PPG away from home with a 37.5% field goal percentage. They do hold teams to just a 42.4% shooting percentage on the road. While ranking 285th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark does improve to 235th in the nation when playing on the road. Niagara has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to three points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. And in their last 5 games against tams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-1. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 games under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Foxes can play some defense — they are 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking 18th in the nation. They allow 64.4 PPG when playing away from home on 39.7% shooting. Marist has played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. But while the Foxes rank sixth in their conference and 276th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 321st in the nation and tenth in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Over their last five games, they are scoring only 59.2 PPG on 39.7% shooting — but they are allowing just 58.2 PPG on 34.6% shooting from the field. Marist has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Niagara won the last meeting between these two teams on January 2nd by an 86-76 score — and Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-14) lost two of their last three games going into the All-Star break after a 107-102 upset loss at home to Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on March 4th last Thursday. Dallas (18-16) went into the break having won three straight and five of their last six with an 87-78 victory against the Thunder last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And head coach Greg Popovich is very tough when his team has at least three days to rest and prepare as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The extended break allowed for Derrick White, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to all clear their COVID quarantine protocols. This is the first time all season (I believe) that the Spurs are at full health and strength. They are 9-4 on the road with an average winning margin of +3.9 PPG. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of these last seven situations. San Antonio has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Thunder to just 33.3% shooting. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 85 points in their last game. Dallas has played better over the last few weeks as they got healthier — but consistency has been a problem. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games at home after a point spread victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home as a favorite -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 122-117 loss at home to the Mavericks on January 22nd. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 59 opportunities to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 110 points under Popovich. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102) in the Quarterfinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-20) snapped a twelve-game losing streak last Friday in an 82-59 win at Mississippi Valley State as a 10.5-point favorite. Jackson State (11-5) has won eleven in a row with their 79-54 win against Alabama State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SWAC tournament is being played at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Lions nailed 53.3% of their shots last Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. Yet Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 333rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 345th nationally by making just 41.9% of the shots inside the arc. The Golden Lions have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while their victory on Friday finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing an Over. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the SWAC while ranking 258th nationally in that metric. But when playing away from home, they plummet to eighth in the SWAC and 331st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make only 39.6% of their shots inside the road away from home, ranking 345th while averaging just 58.9 PPG on 37.0% shooting. But, their defensive performances have been better on the road where they rank 8th in the SWAC and 333th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — not great numbers but better than their 10th ranking in the conference and 343rd mark nationally when at home. The Golden Lions have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Jackson State made 54.5% of their shots last Saturday in what was their best shooting performance of the season. The Tigers have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory against a conference rival. Jackson State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. I was pleasantly surprised to discover upon my deep dive that the Tigers have the second-lowest effective field goal percentage of 43.3% in the nation. They also limit their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc, ranking fourth in the nation, so it is going to be very difficult for the Golden Lions to score easy baskets. Jackson State has held their last five opponents to just 52.0 PPG on 38.2% shooting — and they have not allowed even 60 points in six straight games. The Golden Lions have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. But scoring is the problem for this team as they rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They score only 60.1 PPG on the road on 38.5% shooting. They have played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Jackson State has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Jackson State swept the two regular-season games this season — defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a 64-58 score on March 1st after beating them 63-55 on February 1st. The Golden Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB SWAC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W9-D6-L12) snapped a nine-game winless streak with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday. Man City (W20-D5-L3) saw their 28-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday in a 2-0 loss at home to Manchester United.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring the two goals against the Blades, the Saints’ offensive attack has been stagnant this season. They had only scored five goals in their previous nine matches before scoring twice on Saturday. But it was not all good news for manager Ralph Hassenhuttl as his leading scorer, Danny Ings, suffered a muscle injury that will keep him out at least a month and perhaps the rest of the season. Ings leads the team with eight goals. The Southampton attack has overachieved even with their 33 goals in 27 matches. Their expected goals mark (xG) is sixth-worst in the league and their average below 1.0 non-penalty expected goals per game. The Saints have probably deserved better on defense — while they have allowed 44 goals, their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) drops to 38.44 this season. They have surrendered 28 goals in their 14 matches on the road — but their xGA plummets to 23.47. Against this Man City juggernaut, Hassenhuttl will likely keep his team compact in their 4-4-2 system while rarely pushing into their 4-2-2-2 pressing formation. Man City looked out-of-synch against the Red Devils in Sunday’s Manchester Derby. The toll of the COVID season with a crammed fixture schedule may finally be taking its toll on this team that likely has the EPL championship locked up. The Champions League becomes the focus for this team — so here comes Pep Roulette from manager Pep Guardiola regarding resting players. I waited to release this play on the announcement of his starting XI. His lineup lacks a true forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero on the bench — Phil Foden may be playing the “false nine” spot. Raheem Sterling also is on the bench which leaves a bunch of their firepower on the bench. The mix of midfielders remain talented — but they have not played a ton of minutes together so cohesion is an issue. I am not worried about the stout Man City defense despite them conceding goals in three straight matches. They surrendered a goal to Wolverhampton last week despite posting a tiny xGA of 0.40 in that match. They have still only given up seven goals in their last 17 EPL matches with ten clean sheets. The improved defensive play from the Cityzens has been generated from both an influx of new talented defensive backs and a less-aggressive pressing approach — both of those dynamics will be in play for this match.

FINAL TAKE: Man City won the reverse fixture on December 19th by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (11-10) advanced to the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship Game with their 66-60 upset win at Wagner as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bryant (15-5) reached the championship game with an 85-55 win against Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made 47.8% of their shots on Saturday — but they have just a 42.7% shooting percentage on the road which generates 63.0 PPG. Mount St. Mary’s is much better on the offensive end of the court when playing at home where they rank 237th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in conference action. When playing away from home in true road games (not including neutral courts), their adjusted offensive efficiency plummets to 305th nationally and ninth in Northeast Conference play. Yet the Mountaineers tighten up on defense when playing on an opponent’s home court — they rank 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on the road which is a bit better than their 133rd ranking in that metric when playing at home. The team trends validate this observation. Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. The Mountaineers have also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total in the 130s. Mount St. Mary’s has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have covered the point spread in their last three games while not allowing more than 65 points in those contests. The Mountaineers have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They hold their conference opponents to 60.9 PPG on 39.3% shooting. Bryant made a season-high 63.6% of their shots on Saturday in the win — but not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also played their best defensive game of the season in terms of the opponent’s field goal percentage but that is an effort that is more likely to carry over tonight. Bryant has held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.6 PPG — as compared to their 74.9 PPG and 41.0% opponent’s marks for the season. The Bulldogs’ defense has improved but we are still getting value with the number. Bryant has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a home win against conference rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They host this game where they rank 124 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency as compared to playing on the road where their adjusted defensive efficiency drops to 196th in the nation. But get this: Bryant’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 159th at home but improves to 99th nationally on the road. This is a team that plays better defense but worse offense on their home court. The team trends bear this out as well. They have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total including six of their eight home games this season. They have also played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: I am extra cautious before investing in games from lower-tier conferences — but we have good sample sizes in March (even with COVID cancellations) and the evidence far exceeds my minimum expectations for this situation (after doing the deep dive work as this Report hopefully demonstrates). A final touch: Bryant has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s while Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the over/under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (14-10) has won three in a row after their 76-65 win against North Dakota as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. South Dakota State (16-6) has also won three in a row with their 84-71 victory against Nebraska-Omaha. This game is being played at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls in a semi-home game for the Jackrabbits given the proximity to their campus.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Oral Roberts has played 40 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while that game finished below the 154 point total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing an Under. This is the Golden Eagles’ second game since last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their second game in a week. They are scoring 84.0 PPG in their last five games — and their combined scores in their last five games are +4.1 points above their season average. Additionally, Oral Roberts has played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog. South Dakota State made 53.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This is the Jackrabbits’ second game since last Saturday — not only have they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. They are making 57.1% of their shots over their last five games — but they are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is a few notches above their 43.1% defensive field goal percentage. They have scored at least 84 points in their last two games — and they have then played 26 of their last 39 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Jackrabbits have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total when favored on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts will be looking to avenge a 95-80 loss to South Dakota State on February 14th — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W13-D6-L7) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Manchester City last Saturday. Leeds United (W11-D2-L13) comes off a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers might have outplayed the best team in the English Premier League last weekend — they posted an expected goals mark (xG) of 1.73 while limiting the Cityzens to just 0.76 expected goals (xGA). West Ham was unbeaten in their previous four matches — and they are W7-D1-L2 in their last ten matches across all competitions. Getting Michail Antonio healthy again and back on the pitch makes a big difference. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goals involvement over the last four matches. The addition of Jesse Lingard has also added prowess to this team in the middle of the pitch. In his five matches since joining the team, West Ham has seen their xG rise from 1.4 to 1.54 per match — and they are now averaging 2.2 Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with at least a 35% chance of success) from their 1.9 make before the arrival of Lingard. West Ham is also tough at home where they have won five of their last six matches — with the lone blemish being a loss to reigning EPL champs, Liverpool. Leeds United is beginning to fade a bit after their unique aggressive style took the league by storm in the fall. The Peacocks have lost three of their last four matches along with seven of their last ten. They are overperforming in goals scored and goals allowed relative to their xG expectations. And while they have 18 points on the road, their expected points (xPTS) fall to 15.08 with them overachieving both goals scored and goals allowed. Leeds has lost their last two matches on the road. They have surrendered the most Big Chances in the league when playing on the road — and they have not had a clean sheet on the road in their last five matches across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the reverse fixture on the road on December 11th by a 2-1 score. Leeds has seen two of their league matches end in a draw this season — so a winner is likely. The Hammers are in great form and should overwhelm this promoted side. 25* English Premier League Monday Match of the Month with the West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758) in the Quarterfinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. THE SITUATION: Drexel (9-7) looks to build off the momentum of their 84-78 upset win at James Madison as a 1.5-point underdog back on February 26th. Charleston (9-9) takes to the court again for the first time since February 20th when they defeated Columbus State in a non-boarded game, 86-83. This game is being played at the Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisburg, Virginia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES MINUS THE POINTS: Drexel should be comfortable playing on this court with it being the home of James Madison who they just defeated in this building. While the Dragons made 49.1% of their shots in that game, that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Drexel has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the CAA — and they rank 28th in the nation by making 54.6% of their shots inside the arc. Defense travels — but so does making shots closer to the basket. The Dragons are a more effective team when playing on the road. While they rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they fall to 192nd nationally when playing on their home court. But when Drexel is playing on neutral courts or the opposing team’s court, they rise to 123rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games when favored. Drexel also allowed the Dukes to make 50.9% of their shots in their last game which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven contests — so they should play better on that end of the court. Charleston has won four of their last five games — but they are likely to be rusty having not played in more than two weeks. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with more than seven days between games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points, so any potential momentum is likely a moot point. COVID has it the Colonial Athletic Association hard would plenty of games canceled — that is why the team added their glorified scrimmage with Columbus State. The most recent Division One opponent they have faced was Elon back on February 14th — and they were upset by 11 points as an 8-point favorite. Incredibly, this is just their third game away from home in conference action this season. The Cougars rank 215th nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency but fall to 231st in that metric when playing away from home. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games on a neutral court as an underdog. Expectations were pretty high for this season entering the season — but they lost their best player, Brevin Galloway, to a season-ending leg injury in December. Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top for this situation is that Drexel will be motivated by double-revenge. They lost twice on the road to the Cougars this season in early-January by a combined six points with the last meeting being on January 10th in a 73-68 upset loss as a 2-point favorite. The Dragons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year with the Drexel Dragons (757) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (758). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (17-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last night in a 71-69 upset loss to the Monarchs as a 7-point favorite. Old Dominion (15-6) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky made only 39.6% of their shots last night in what was the worst shooting effort in their last ten games. But they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They should play better in this one — they are still averaging a 48.3% field goal percentage along with an opponent’s field goal mark of 40.9% in their last five games even after last night. They dropped to 10-2 at home but they are outscoring their visitors by +10.7 PPG. The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Old Dominion has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win against a Conference USA foe where they were an underdog getting at least 6 points. Despite pulling the upset on the road last night, the Monarchs are not as good on the road as they are at home. Old Dominion ranks 156th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — and they improve to 139th when playing on their home court. But the Monarchs fall to 189th in the nation when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games at home. Furthermore, Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a narrow loss by three points or less. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (650) minus the points versus the Old Dominion Monarchs (649). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). THE SITUATION: Brighton and Hove Albion (W5-D11-L10) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at West Bromwich Albion last Saturday. Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at Burnley on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Brighton is a prime example of a team dramatically underperforming in respect to the analytics projections. In terms of the expected goals metric (xG), the Seagulls are the fifth-best team in the English Premier League. In practice, they are only three points safe from relegation. Brighton dominated West Brom by a 3.28-0.73 xG but lost by a 1-0 score. Missing two penalty kicks did not help. That setback came on the heels of them losing 2-1 to Crystal Palace despite dominating the xG battle by a 3.03-0.27 margin. I have written extensively about Brighton — and, to be fair, one of the reasons why they are underachieving their expected goals mark is because they lack elite goal-scorers. But they are also unlucky — especially on defense. Manager Graham Potter’s tactics are putting his team in a position to win matches consistently. This may make them a precarious favorite — but they remain very dangerous as they proved earlier this year when they upset Liverpool. When playing at home in Amex Stadium, the Seagulls have the second-best expected points (xPTS) despite only 10 points and one victory. They lead the EPL in Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate based on league averages) and in expected goals allowed (xGA). They allow only 4.76 shots inside the box which is the second-fewest in the league. Sooner or later, the Regression Gods will arrive for this team. Creating scoring opportunities and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances is the foundation for success. Leicester City is not in good form right now with two losses and a draw in their last three matches. When the Foxes are at full strength, they have a legitimate claim in being one of the top four teams in the league. But because they cannot afford to pay for a bunch of good players, their roster depth is not in the same class as the elite programs. Their attack suffers when their trio of Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes, and James Maddison are not playing together — and both Barnes and Maddison are out with injuries. Leicester City is also without Jonny Evans, Wes Morgan, and Ayoze Perez. These losses are devastating. Despite their 1-1 draw midweek, they lost the xG battle to the Cherries by a 1.75-1.23 xG margin. The Foxes have been outperforming the metrics all season on both ends of the pitch. While they are currently third in the EPL standings, they fall to sixth (and behind Brighton) in xPTS. Recent losses to Arsenal and Slavia Prague in the Europa League are not encouraging regarding how this team will proceed given all their injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture by a 3-0 score before defeating the Seagulls in the FA Cup on February 10th by a 1-0 score. The Foxes have more injuries now. A victory now earns Brighton some revenge and three crucial points to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (15-9) advanced to the Semifinals of the MVC tournament yesterday with their 53-43 win against Evansville as a 6.5-point favorite. Loyola-Illinois (22-4) won their fourth in a row yesterday with a 73-49 win against Southern Illinois as a 17-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ramblers scored more than 65 points for the first time since February 13th yesterday — it had been five straight games since they had topped that threshold. They made 47.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Loyola-Illinois is still making only 41.1% of their shots over their last five games which is generating just 60.4 PPG over that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days on the road. Loyola is an elite defensive team that has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home in true road games or on neutral courts — they are allowing 57.3 PPG on 40.1% shooting in those 13 games. They have not allowed more than 58 points in 16 straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. The Ramblers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Indiana State made 40.4% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games.  The Sycamores have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana State has played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day between games. They have held their last five opponents to 59.8 PPG. The Sycamores are 71st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 63rd when playing away from home. But while they rank 187th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 217th in their true road games or games played on a neutral court. Indiana State has played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams play at a slow pace — the Sycamores average 68.1 possessions-per-game away from home while the Ramblers average 65.8 possessions (319th nationally) away from home. The local Noon PM ET tip won’t help the shooting. And while Indiana State will be looking to avenge a 58-48 loss at home to Loyola on January 11th, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (65) versus the Arizona Coyotes (66). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-7-1) looks to bounce back from a 5-1 loss in Vegas on Wednesday. Arizona (10-9-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 3-2 win in Los Angeles on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILD WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota had been riding a six-game winning streak when they headed to Las Vegas to begin the week. The Wild had a late 4-2 lead against the Golden Knights before surrendering two late goals and then losing in overtime. That result was marred by Zach Parise staying on the ice too long trying to help a Marcus Foligno register a hat trick on the Vegas open net — but that gesture backfired with Alex Tuch scoring the tying goal with just 42 seconds left in the game. The loss then on Wednesday was closer than the final score indicated — but the Wild now need a win to get back to their winning ways. Minnesota has won 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least four goals. The Wild have also won 9 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. And while this is Minnesota’s third game on the road this week, they have won 4 straight games when playing their third game in five days on the road. The Wild have won 13 of their last 19 road games after losing two in a row. Minnesota confirmed around 2:30 PM ET that they will Kaap Kahkonen will be between the pipes with his 2.41 Goals-Against-Average and .915 save percentage this season. Kahkonen enjoyed a great February with a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average with a .927 save percentage in six starts. Kahkonen is also very good on the road — he has a 1.85 GAA and .932 save percentage in six starts on the road. Arizona has lost 16 of their last 22 games after a win — and they have lost 16 of their last 19 games after a narrow win by one goal. Additionally, the Coyotes have lost 8 of their last 9 home games after a win on the road — and they have lost 5 straight home games after a win by just one goal on the road. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. They return home where they are just 6-9 this season — and they have lost 9 of their last 12 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Arizona has also lost 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and the Wild have won 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. 25* NHL West Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (65) versus the Arizona Coyotes (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). THE SITUATION: Toledo (19-7) looks to bounce back from an 81-79 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 17-point favorite on Tuesday. Ball State (10-11) won their third straight game on Tuesday with their 100-65 blowout win against Eastern Michigan as an 8-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo made only 43.9% of their shots against the Chippewas which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They also allowed Central Michigan to make 47.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent field goal percentage in their last four contests. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 11-1 with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. They make 48.0% of their shots at home which is generating 82.4 PPG. They also hold their guests to just 40.4% shooting. Toledo has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Rockets are 16th in the nation by making 38.4% of their 3-pointers. The Cardinals are one of the best teams defending the perimeter as they rank 29th nationally by holding their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc. But they are vulnerable against teams that attack the glass — they allow their opponents to pull down 33.2% of their missed shots, 305th nationally. Toledo is third in the MAC by rebounding 31.5% of their misses when playing at home. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games when favored. Ball State held the Eagles to just 36.7% shooting on Tuesday in what was the best defensive effort in their last five games. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 30 points against a conference foe. Ball State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after winning at least two in a row. Now they go back on the road for the first time since January 30th (not a typo) — they have played seven straight games at home. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. They are just 3-7 on the road while making only 42.9% of their shots for 69.7 PPG — those numbers are a far cry from the 52.1% shooting they enjoyed on Tuesday on their home court. The Cardinals play their best basketball at home. They rank 141st in Adjusted Net Efficiency — they climb to 125th when playing at home. But Ball State falls to 194th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against a team with  a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 150s.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State upset Toledo in their previous meeting on February 6th in an 81-67 victory as a 9-point underdog. The Rockets made only 7 of 32 shots from behind the arc — but they make 38.7% of their 3-pointers at home. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (828) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (827). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-8) has lost three in a row after their 79-75 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Texas (15-7) has won four of their last six games after their 81-67 win at Iowa State as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost their third straight close game on Monday — their three losses were by a combined 13 points. The Regression Gods should be making a visit to Norman soon. They allowed the Cowboys to make 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 19 games. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 home games after losing two in a row against Big 12 foes. And while this is the Sooners’ third game since Saturday, they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 home games when playing their third game in seven or fewer days. Oklahoma does return home where they are 10-2 with an average winning margin of +15.1 PPG scoring average. The Sooners hold their visitors to 39.2% shooting — and they are scoring a healthy 80.2 PPG at home. While they rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency, they improve to 16th in that metric when evaluating how teams play on their home court. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games with the Total set in the 140s. Furthermore, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games. Texas made 51% of their shots on Tuesday against the Cyclones which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 10 or more points on the road. Furthermore, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning four or five of their last six games after winning four or five of their last six. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Longhorns are just 1-6-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two teams on January 26th by an 80-70score with the Longhorns undermanned given COVID issues at the time. But Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (750) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (749). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). THE SITUATION: New York (18-18) saw their three-game winning streak end on Tuesday in their 119-93 upset loss at San Antonio as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (10-25) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 129-105 upset victory at Toronto as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t read too much into the Pistons victory against the Raptors last night — Toronto could barely field a roster given their recent COVID outbreak. The Raptors were missing Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and O.G. Agunoby amongst five players along with head coach Nick Nurse. A Detroit team consisting of reserves made 52.7% of their shots in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last seven games. Head coach Dwane Casey deserves credit for getting every ounce of effort and energy out of the roster he has been left with. But a letdown is likely after last night — especially with the team in New York (even in a pandemic) on the final night before the All-Star Game weekend break. As it is, Detroit is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 games after a double-digit victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Detroit entered the year with one of the worst starting fives in the NBA — and most of those guys are not available tonight. Jerami Grant has been their best player and leads the team with a 23.4 PPG average — but he is questionable with a quad (and why play him before the break). Derrick Rose was the team’s second-leading scorer — but he was traded to these Knicks. Josh Jackson is the third-leading scorer with a 13.5 PPG clip — and he is out with an illness that kept him out of last night’s game. The fourth-leading scorer, Blake Griffin, is not playing as he awaits being traded to another team that will become disappointed with his effort. Deion Wright, the team’s fifth-leading scorer with a 10.7 PPG mark, is out with a groin. Killian Hayes and Jahlil Okafor are both out with injuries. The Pistons lineup tonight will feature Wayne Ellington, Mason Plumlee, and Dennis Smith. As it is, this is a team that is 4-15 on the road while allowing their home hosts to score 114.6 PPG on 49.0% shooting. The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. New York only made 40.7% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Knicks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Julius Randle only scored 14 points on 6 of 16 shooting which was his lowest scoring output since February 9th. Randle is scoring 23.1 PPG and pulling down 10.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in his breakout season. This team is playing surprisingly well for first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau. It all starts on defense for Thibs with the Knicks leading the league by allowing only 104.4 PPG — and their play on that end of the court is legit as they rank second in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Overall, New York is a respectable 14th in the league in Net Rating. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for their only home game before March 18th again. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in Madison Square Garden — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing their last two on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Knicks have some missing players with Elfrid Payton and Taj Gibson out — but they should get Derrick Rose back after he was held out of Tuesday’s game because of an inconclusive COVID test. Rose has injected some needed-offense into the team — he has averaged 16.3 PPG in his three previous games on 52.8% shooting and a 62.3% mark from behind the arc. Over their last five games, the Knicks are scoring 111.7 PPG on 47.7% shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 range. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation is also a concern on the last night before the All-Star Game break. The Knicks should be motivated to redeem themselves (especially Randle) from their loss on Tuesday — and a win tonight ensures a record above .500 going into the break. Detroit may want to avenge their 109-90 loss at home to New York on February 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-10) has won five games in a row with their 73-55 win against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northwestern (7-14) snapped a 13-game losing streak last Thursday with a 67-59 upset win at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins made 48.8% of their shots against Sparty which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a Big Ten foe. The final score finished below the 134 total — and the Terrapins have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is Maryland’s second game since February 21st — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight or more days. Head coach Mark Turgeon has his team sacrifice offense rebounds of getting back on defense — they rank 323rd in the nation by pulling down only 21.5% of their missed shots. The Terrapins have rebounded only three and six boards in each of their last two games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than nine offensive rebounds in two straight games. Maryland now goes back on the road where they have striking home/road splits. When playing at home, the Terrapins rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But when playing on the road, Maryland sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plumes to 104th in the nation — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency skyrockets to 15th best nationally. The Terrapins have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. Turgeon has his team playing great defense — they have the sixth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over their last ten games. In their last five games, Maryland has held these opponents to 58.8 PPG on 35.9% shooting. The Terrapins have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Northwestern has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also played 31 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, Northwestern has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after beating a Big Ten foe. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 40.6% shooting. But while the Wildcats rank 88th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 157th nationally when playing at home. The Under is 15-5-1 in Northwestern’s last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats only made 42.2% of their shots in their upset win over the Gophers — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Northwestern is scoring only 62.0 PPG in their last five games on 40.1% shooting which is far below their 71.5 PPG and 43.7% marks for the season. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range.

FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog — and Maryland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). THE SITUATION: Chicago (15-18) has lost two in a row after their 118-112 loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (15-19) has won three of their last five games with their 129-124 upset victory at home against Utah on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago played the Nuggets as they rallied from being down 15 points to take a six-point lead with eight minutes but let the game slip away. The Bulls did not play particularly well — they only made 44.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They also allowed Denver to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal mark in their last eight contests. This team continues to improve under first-year head coach Billy Donovan while Zach Lavigne continues to grow into being a legitimate star in this league. Chicago is still making 53.3% of their shots over their last five games — and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.0% during that span is improved over their 47.5% mark for the season. They should bounce-back to play well tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a narrow loss by six points or less. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. This is Chicago’s sixth straight games against a Western Conference opponent — but not only have they covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a Western Conference foe in their previous game but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing at least two straight non-conference games. They have been capable road warriors this season with an 8-7 mark away from home with an averaging winning margin of +3.0 PPG while shooting 49.0% of their shots. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans is a prime candidate for an emotional letdown after upsetting the hottest team in the league in the Jazz. They made 56.5% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games — and they played their best defensive game in their last eleven by holding Utah to 45.5% shooting. As it is, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Not only are the Pelicans consistently inconsistent (good for us) but they tend to not do well when they get comfortable in playing high-scoring games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by six points or less. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Defense remains a problem of head coach Stan Van Gundy’s team as they have allowed their last five opponents to score 120.6 PPG on 47.9% shooting. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago nailed a franchise-record 25 shots from behind the arc in a 129-116 win at home against New Orleans on February 10th. The Pelicans will want revenge — but the Bulls have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played in the Big Easy. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (22-11) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 118-99 win at Minnesota on Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Los Angeles (24-11) won their second-straight game on Sunday with their 117-91 win against Golden State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix cruised against the Timberwolves despite shooting 49.4% from the field which sounds good — but it was actually the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games (maybe costing us the Over that night!). The Suns are averaging a 50.8% shooting percentage in their last five games which is generating 121.0 PPG. They should build off their momentum tonight with the opportunity to knock off the reigning NBA champions. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games on the road after a win by 10 or more points. The Suns have scored at least 106 points in 11 straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 105 points in at least five straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while this is their third game on the road since Thursday, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in five days on the road. Phoenix has an 11-5 record on the road (versus their 11-6 record at home) — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as an underdog. Los Angeles hit rock bottom last week when they were crushed on the road in Utah in a fourth straight loss. The champs picked themselves off the mat with two straight wins. Getting Dennis Schroder back from quarantine has helped. Yet consistency and focus remain an issue for this team even when they have had Anthony Davis healthy. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home. Los Angeles raced out to a 73-44 halftime lead against the Warriors on Sunday but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games at home after owning a halftime lead of at least 20 points in their last game. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 15 home games after a win by at least 10 points at home in their last game. Additionally, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers have not played great at home in the Staples Center without fans as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 18 home games this season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against a team winning at least 60% of their games — and Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654) in the Quarterfinals of the Horizon League tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (9-11) snapped a five-game losing streak last Thursday in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament with their 84-72 win against IUPUI as a 4-point favorite. Wright State (18-5) plays for the first time since February 20th when they won at Northern Kentucky, 77-71, as a 9-point favorite. The Raiders host this tournament game.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phoenix have played eight straight Overs after their win in the Horizon League tournament last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Phoenix are playing definitively better on offense. While they rank 200th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season, they climb to 144th nationally when assessing their performance in their last ten games. They are scoring 83.4 PPG over their last five contests which is +8.3 PPG above their season average. But they are also allowing 85.6 PPG in these last five games which are +9.9 PPG above their season defensive average. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Wright State has played 26 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in at least two straight. I did have initial concerns about the Raiders’ long layoff — but they probably will not shoot worse than the 43.5% clip they managed against the Norse in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Wright State may be cold in the first half — but don’t give up on the Over until this one is over! The Raiders will get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they pull down 34.3% of their missed shots which is the 25th best mark in the nation. This is a great shooting team — they make 37.2% of their 3-pointers, 35th nationally, and 53.8% of their shots inside the arc, 45th nationally — and playing on their familiar home court without a full house should help them get back into rhythm. I am playing more Overs this season without fans in the stands — and they are playing a Phoenix team that ranks 321st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers. Let’s trust the Horizon League’s second-most efficient offense to figure it out — and they will have fresh legs. Wright State has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number in the 150s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Defense has been a concern as of late — they are allowing 74.4 PPG on 45.0% shooting in their last five games which is well above the 66.3 PPG and 40.0% they allow for the season.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 92-82 loss at Wright State on February 13th — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The Phoenix has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 80 points. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (14-7) lost their second-straight game on Saturday in a 94-90 loss in overtime at home to the Cowboys. Oklahoma State (16-6) has won four games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Additionally, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two in a row. Oklahoma travels to Stillwater for this rematch — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Sooners are a defense-first team that ranks 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 19th in opponent’s field goal percentage inside the arc. They are led by senior point guard Austin Reaves who leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and assists. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games with the total set in the 140s. And in their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Sooners have covered the point spread in 14 of these contests. Oklahoma State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory against a Big 12 rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning at least three in a row. The quick turnaround will not help either as the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with one day or less of rest. Oklahoma State is overvalued when playing at home. They rank 32nd in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 34th nationally on the road, they plummet to 51st nationally when playing at home in Stillwater. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the Oklahoma Sooners (845) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (846). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). THE SITUATION: Denver (18-15) has won two of their last three games with their 126-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (15-17) had their three game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 106-97 loss at home to Phoenix as 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best game on defense in their last eight contests by holding the Thunder to just 42.0% shooting from the field. They are still allowing their home hosts to make 48.2% of their baskets which is resulting in 111.6 PPG. But Jamal Murray has been finding some of the form he enjoyed in the bubble when he led Denver to the Western Conference Finals. He scored 26 points on Saturday — and he is averaging 30.1 PPG in his last nine games. The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets have also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Denver is scoring 116.4 PPG over their last five games on 49.6% shooting. They have scored at least 110 points in six straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. They stay on the road where they  have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Denver has played 9 of these games Over the Total. Chicago shot 49.4% from the field on Friday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Over their last five contests, the Bulls are making 52.7% of their shots which is generating 115.4 PPG in first-year head coach Billy Donovan’s up-tempo offense. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They stay at home where they are allowing their guests to score 114.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Bulls have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Western Conference foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 19 of their last 26 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games played in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (21-11) has won four of their last five games with their 106-97 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (7-27) has lost seven games in a row with their 128-112 loss at Washington as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 50% of their shots on Friday yet it was the lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. This Phoenix offense is clicking — they are averaging 123.8 PPG over their last five contests on 52.5% shooting. The Suns have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Phoenix has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Suns have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 21 games after playing at least two in a row against Eastern Conference opponents, Phoenix has played 17 of these games Over the Total. This is the Suns’ sixth game since February 19th — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their sixth or more game in a ten-day span. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. The Timberwolves have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. New head coach Chris Finch will likely want to address the play of his defense but he lacks short-term fixes. The T-Wolves have allowed their last five opponents to score 117.8 PPG on 47.0% shooting. Playing without a day off certainly will not help  — and Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. After being on the road for four straight games, they return home for the first time since February 19th — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Timberwolves have also played 27 of their last 40 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Over the Total. Phoenix should approach 120 points in this one which should carry the final score into the high 220s (or more). 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (8-5) has won three of their last four games with their 75-69 win at home against the Mountain Hawks yesterday. Lehigh (4-9) has now lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LEOPARDS MINUS THE POINTS: Lafayette should build off their momentum from yesterday as they are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after a win against a Patriot League foe. The Leopards have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They now go on the road where the metrics say they play better. Lafayette ranks 234rd nationally in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but while they are 236th when at home, they climb to 217th when on the road. The Leopards are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games with the number in the 140s. Additionally, Lafayette has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. The Leopards have the second-best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency numbers in the Patriot League — and they lead the conference by nailing 37.5% of their 3-pointers on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Mountain Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing day or less of rest. Lehigh is 1-4 at home where they are getting outscored by -13.0 PPG — and they have retained more value as a road underdog yesterday. The Mountains Lions are 306th in Adjusted Net Efficiency — but they are even worse at home with a 337th ranking as compared to their 268th rating when playing on the road. Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. This is not a good basketball team — they rank 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 8th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Patriot League. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.4% of their shots while making only 37.3% of their shots over that span. The Mountain Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Lehigh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss. The Mountain Lions beat the Leopards on January 2nd but have since lost the next two meetings this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Patriot League Game of the Month with the Lafayette Leopards (1511) minus the points versus the Lehigh Mountain Hawks (1512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (12-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-71 loss at South Dakota yesterday. South Dakota (13-9) has now won two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 40.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They did nail 10 shots from behind the arc after making 11 shots from 3-point range in their previous game against South Dakota State — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after making at least 10 shots from 3-point range in two straight contests. They should shoot better this afternoon playing in the same gym for the second-straight day. As it is, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, North Dakota State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite of up to 3 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Bison have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. South Dakota has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Coyotes’ 47.2% shooting percentage was their lowest in three games — so they should shoot as well or better. But holding the Bison to 40.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. South Dakota has now played 4 straight games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Coyotes average 83.0 PPG on their home court on 52.0% shooting. But their defense is faltering as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.3% of their shots which is generating 82.8 PPG. South Dakota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 84-58 loss at CS-Bakersfield last night as an 8-point underdog. CS-Bakersfield (15-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: Just a bad night for CS-Northridge as they made only 39.0% of their shots — and they allowed the Roadrunners to shoot 54.1% from the field in what was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. But head coach Mike Gottfried’s team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors usually are competitive against good teams as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. CS-Northridge is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams who win at least 60% of their games at home. Additionally, the Matadors have covered the point spread 12 of their last 17 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. CS-Bakersfield had their best shooting effort in ten games with their 54.5% clip last night. They also enjoyed the best defensive effort in their last ten games by holding the Matadors to 39.0% shooting. They raced out to a 47-22 halftime lead — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after holding a halftime lead of at least 20 points. Additionally, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. CS-Bakersfield remains just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they are only 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 home games when favored. The Roadrunners are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points. Last night was an outlier — the Matadors will play better and we are getting two more points of value from last night’s point spread. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Year with the CS-Northridge Matadors (771) plus the points versus the CS-Bakersfield Roadrunners (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (16-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 102-99 upset loss at home against Oklahoma State as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (14-18) had their two-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 129-125 loss at Milwaukee as an 8-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio had not played February 14th when they took the court on Wednesday — and they had a handful of players still out due to COVID quarantine protocols including DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs still have Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker IV leading the way — and no one gets more out of every player on the roster than head coach Gregg Popovich. When I received the news that DeRozan was upgraded to probable for tonight’s game, I signed off. DeRozan is having an incredible season, albeit under the radar. He is scoring 19.8 PPG while adding 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is also playing every position but center while being able to guard effectively at all four positions. His flexibility allows the Spurs to play several different lineups to maximize match-up edges. This is a solid basketball team that plays hard every night — and they remain as well-coached from night-to-night as any team in the league. Against Stan Van Gundy? Mismatch (what does someone have to do to stop getting NBA head coaching jobs? Mark Jackson knows the answer to that). San Antonio will play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home to the AT&T Center for the first time since February 9th after their regular February exodus due to the San Antonio rodeo (PPD this year). The Spurs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 home games as an underdog. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 6 points or less. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Pelicans remain a disaster on defense under the guidance of defensive wizardry of Van Gundy and his 1996 principles being deployed in his first season in the Big Easy. New Orleans is second-to-last in the league in their Defensive Rating. And while it may be tempting to give Van Gundy a pass given the lack of a typical preseason, the Pelicans have allowed their last five opponents to make 51.0% of their shots for 124.0 PPG. The Pelicans have now played ten straight Overs — but this style of play is not helping this team. Not only has New Orleans failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay on the road where they are 5-11 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also allow their home hosts to make 48.5% of their shots which is generating 116.5 PPG for the home teams. Furthermore, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. J.J. Redick is doubtful tonight with a hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Spurs. The lone exception during that stretch was a 98-95 win at home against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on December 27th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 59 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Underdog of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). THE SITUATION: Portland State (8-10) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in a 66-64 loss at Northern Colorado in a pick ‘em matchup. Northern Colorado (10-8) has won two in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PILOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Portland State made only 32.8% of their shots on Thursday in the worst shooting effort in their last 14 games. They should shoot better this afternoon being more familiar with the gym. As it is, the Pilots have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss on the road to a conference foe. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, head coach Barret Peery’s team has been very good playing on short rest. They have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games when playing with one day or less of rest including six straight games under those circumstances. Portland State has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing their second game on the road in three days. Peery has his team do the little things to create more scoring opportunities — so they should be in good shape in this rematch if they can approach making 40% of their shots. The Pilots lead the Big Sky by pulling down 32.5% of their missed shots. They also lead the conference in forcing turnovers in 25.7% of their opponent’s possessions — and the Bears are 8th in the Big Sky by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Portland State may be just 1-6 on the road but they are losing these games by an average of -1.5 PPG. They hold their home hosts to just 42.8% shooting. The Pilots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog. Northern Colorado played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Pilots to 32.8% shooting. This is the Bears’ third game since Monday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when playing their third home game in seven days. They rank 237th in Adjusted Net Efficiency by the deeper metrics — but they fall to 255th in the Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total in the 130s. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: Portland State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games when playing with revenge including five of these last seven situations. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big Sky Underdog of the Year with the Portland State Pilots (643) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (644). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (23-11) has lost two of three after their 122-94 upset loss at Memphis as an 8-point favorite last night. Memphis (14-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Grizzlies are getting healthy again with Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen, and Justise Winslow back on the court and in the regular rotation. Ja Morant has missed eight games this season as well with an ankle injury. The team displayed their potential last night in a game where they were winning by 30 points at one point. Yet this effort was an outlier. The Grizzlies held the Clippers to 40.5% shooting in what was the best defensive performance of their season. They also made 54.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. But Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. The Grizzlies host this rematch where they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a home underdog. Killian Tillie is listed as questionable tonight with a foot injury. And in Memphis’ last 8 games as an underdog, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Los Angeles should play better on defense tonight after Memphis had the best field goal percentage in them in 12 games. The Clippers also had the worst shooting percentage on offense in their last 16 games. Yet LA is still ranked third in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency under first-year head coach Tyron Lue. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only two of their nine shots from 3-point land. Leonard has been his typical excellent self this season — but it is George who has stepped up his game amidst off-season criticism to score 24.8 PPG while nailing 48.1% of his 3-pointers so far this year. The Clippers should step up with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also covered the points spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 10 points. LA has been very good on the road with an 11-5 record and an average winning margin of +6.6 PPG. They are making 48.4% of their shots away from home which is generating 114.5 PPG. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 65 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (13-6) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday in a 65-55 win against Georgia Southern as a 6-point favorite. Troy (10-14) has lost five in a row after their 65-53 loss at Georgia State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Coastal Carolina has played six straight Unders — and not only have they played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. The Chanticleers have the second-best defense in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 37.1% shooting from the field — as compared to their 67.0 PPG and 39.2% opponent’s offensive marks for the season. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.8% of their shots. Coastal Carolina has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Chanticleers have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when playing a team with a losing record. Troy has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Trojans have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Troy has also played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They return home where they have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Sun Belt play. They hold their guests to 36.7% on their home court which is resulting in only 59.7 PPG. The Trojans only hit 41.6% of their shots at home. Troy has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Trojans can struggle to score — they are averaging only 60.8 PPG on 39.7% shooting in their last five games. Troy has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Troy will be playing with revenge from a 70-65 loss at Coastal Carolina on January 23rd as a 10-point underdog. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. Troy also lost the January 22nd meeting between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six games in a row after their 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite back on February 13th. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games with their 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hilltoppers made 56.5% of their shots against the Owls after shooting 50.9% from the field in their previous game at home against Rice. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning two in a row on their home court. Western Kentucky has also played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after two wins in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total (146.5 versus Rice 2/13). The Hilltoppers may be rusty on offense with the almost-two-week layoff. As it is, they have only scored 64.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting in their last five games which is almost 5.0 PPG below their season average. And while they rank 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 149th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But their defense travels — Western Kentucky ranks 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to their 132nd ranking  when playing at home. They hold their home hosts to 41.8% shooting. The Hilltoppers have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road — including seven of their last nine games. They also have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cougars also held the Bearcats to just 30.0% shooting. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Houston ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2%. The Cougars have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing at home where they limit their opponents to just 34.1% shooting and 54.2 PPG. Houston has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 38-14-1 in the last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in the Cougars’ last 22 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and Western Kentucky has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). THE SITUATION: Man City is the best team in the world right now riding an 18-match winning streak across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Arsenal on Sunday. Borussia Monchengladbach is struggling after a 2-1 loss to Mainz on Saturday. This match will be played on a neutral field in Hungary given COVID restrictions in Germany right now.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cityzens are cruising with 13 straight wins in the English Premier League which the metrics rank as the top professional league in Europe right now. Man City is demolishing their English competition with 32 goals scored and just three conceded during their 13 EPL matches since their last loss on November 21st to Tottenham. Manager Pep Guardiola had to change tactics out of necessity given some injuries to their attackers to pull-in the reins a bit in his aggressive pressing tactics. This decision is wise in hindsight given the increased work-load for the players in the condensed schedule due to COVID. Not being as aggressive has helped protect their backline — but the organization also made a number of great transfers to fortify their defense. The combination of Ruben Dias and John Stones in the middle of their backline has been extraordinary — they are allowing just 0.52 expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing together. Man City has allowed just two goals in their last ten EPL matches — and they have only allowed three of their last 14 opponents in the EPL to generate at least 1.0 expected goals (xG). The Cityzens have 18 clean sheets in their last 25 matches across all competitions. And in their six Champions League Group Stage matches, Man City had five clean sheets — and their six opponents combined for a mere 1.6 xG. In the EPL, Man City has a +32.79 net expected goals differential — and the next closest team in that metric is Chelsea’s whose +15.73 net xG differential is less than half their number. And they are getting healthier with midfielder Kevin DeBruyne healthy back on the pitch over the weekend. Borussia Monchengladbach is winless in their last four matches in the Bundesliga — and they have lost two in a row at home against Mainz and Cologne who are both in the bottom-five in the league. Die Foals has taken a slide since manager Marco Rose announced he would be leaving the team for Borussia Dortmund in the offseason. They are just eight the German top flight this season expected goal net differential. The scoring is down for this team with Alassane Pea and Marcus Thuram only contributing three goals and one assist apiece after combining for 20 goals and 18 assists last season. After averaging 2.16 xG last season, Borussia Monchengladbach has fallen to averaging just 1.53 xG this year. And in their last four matches, Die Foals are managing just 0.69 xG per contest.

FINAL TAKE: Not being able to play the first leg at home really hurts this team — they have won three of their last ten matches away from home. These Champions League neutral site matches give a big edge to the road team since their goals still contribute to the “away goals” first tie-breaker if there is a tie in net goals after the second leg. Guardiola has plenty of incentives to run up the score against a Borussia Monchengladbach who has to travel for this match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Favorite of the Month with Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). THE SITUATION: Boston (15-15) looks to rebound from a 120-115 upset loss in overtime at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (14-15) won their fifth game in their last six last night with their 102-92 win against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: Boston blew a 24-point lead on Sunday against the Pelicans. The Celtics made only 39.8% of their shots in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last four games. Boston should pick themselves up off the mat after that embarrassing result on national television. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss on the road as a favorite. Head coach Brad Stevens’ team is struggling — but this group has been rarely been at full strength due to injuries. Marcus Smart is out with a calf injury but the group’s Big Three of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker will be on the court together for this game which has not been the case for many of their games this season. Consistency has been a problem — and the Celtics need help on their frontline. But Tatum and Brown are rising superstars in this league who are only 22 and 24-years old — the vision for general manager Danny Ainge is that this team will be elite for years with two of the top-ten players in the game over the next several years. Boston has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. And in their last 5 games with the Total set at 235 or higher, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Dallas held the Grizzlies to just 39.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 games. The Mavericks are struggling at that end of the court — they rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season. They had not played since Valentine’s Day before last night — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing without rest. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a Southwest Division rival. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after a win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Mavs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas was an overnight favorite but moved to the underdog with the news that Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with his knee. Even if Porzingis plays tonight, I like the Celtics — but his absence certainly helps. Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 trips to Dallas to face them. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (13-6) has won three in a row with their 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (10-8) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orange only made 43.5% of their shots against the Fighting Irish but still rallied from a 20-point deficit to win that game. Syracuse has then played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Jim Boeheim’s team does not fit his typical profile — they are much better on offense than they are on defense. The Orange ranks 38th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 29th nationally in this metric when playing on the road. Yet Syracuse is only 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 186th in the nation in this metric when playing away from home. Boeheim’s 2-3 zone is not working this season — and it remains as vulnerable as ever to offensive rebounding with the open space around the rim it leaves vulnerable. Not only do the Orange allow their opponents to pull down 31.1% of their missed shots, 279th nationally, but home teams are getting second-chance scoring opportunities in a whopping 37.5% of their missed shots which is 340th in the nation. Syracuse has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They are allowing 78.0 PPG when playing on the road. And while the Orange have played three straight Unders, the Orange have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, Syracuse has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 straight home games Over the Total after a win against an ACC rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Blue Devils shot 51.0% from the field against the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Duke is averaging 79.0 PPG over their last five games on 52.5% shooting over that span — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. While the Blue Devils have been pilloried for being one of the blue blood programs suffering a down season, they have under the radar regarding how good they are on offense. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 10th in the nation in that metric over their last ten games to demonstrate they do not miss freshman Jalen Johnson who left the team. But Duke struggles on the end of the court as they rank just 135th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 26 home games including eight of their last ten home games finishing Over the Total. Duke has also played 7 straight games Over the Total at home against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Blue Devils pound the offensive glass as well to take advantage of their missed shots against the Boeheim 2-3 zone — they rebound 33.6% of their missed shots at home, 67th nationally. Duke has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number in the 140s — and the Orange has played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W5-D11-L8) is unbeaten in their last six English Premier League matches after their 0-0 draw at home to Aston Villa back on February 13th. Crystal Palace (W8-D5-L11) has lost four of their last six EPL matches after their 3-0 loss to Burnley on two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls have been the analytics darlings all season despite little results to show for it. While their 26 points this season places them in relegation danger in 16th place in the EPL table, their 38.78 expected points (xPTS) using the expected goals (xG) metric is sixth-best in the league. With recent wins against traditional Big Six sides in Liverpool and Tottenham, manager Graham Potter’s side is finally seeing the results the underlying metrics have called for. It starts with their strong defensive play — Brighton has now registered five clean sheets in their last six matches. Potter’s decision to replace keeper Matt Ryan with Robert Sanchez whose ability to make quality saves (and not make mistakes) has played a big role in their recent clean sheet run. The Seagulls have only won once in their 12 home games at Amex Stadium but the metrics suggest they are tough to beat on their home pitch. While Brighton only has 10 points, they have 25.75 xPTS at home which is the second-most in the EPL. They have scored only 11 goals at home — but their xG is 23.42. And while they have allowed only 15 goals at home, their expected goals allowed (xGA) actually drops to 10.30. Crystal Palace has been blanked in two straight matches while generating little action in front of the opposing net. They managed only 0.63 xG in their loss to Burnley after generating just 0.44 xG in their 2-0 loss to Leeds United in their previous match. Manager Roy Holgorsen misses his best attacker, Wilfried Zaha, who remains out with an injury. They have not scored this season without Zaha being on the pitch. Furthermore, not only has Crystal Palace lost of their last 20 matches when playing without Zaha but they have won just once while scoring only six goals in their last 13 matches in the EPL without Zaha — and they generated just 15.5 xG in those 13 games. The Eagles are in 14th place in the table — but they fall to 17th place in xPTS. Crystal Palace is W4-D2-L6 on the road for 14 points — but their xPTS drop to 13.52 on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Palace on October 18th. The Eagles had Zaha for that match with the Seagulls still struggling on the pitch to meet their deeper analytics expectations. Brighton needs the three points to get clear from relegation — and they are the vastly superior side. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (33) and the Vancouver Canucks (34). THE SITUATION: Winnipeg (10-6-1) has won two of their last three games after there shutout win in Vancouver against the Canucks on Friday. Vancouver (8-12-1) lost their second game in their last three contests.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets got a shutout from backup goalie, Laurent Brossoit, who stopped 29 shots. Winnipeg has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after a shutout win. Additionally, the Jets have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road after a win by more than one goal. 2020 Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck returns to the ice tonight after getting Friday off. He has a 2.56 Goals-Against-Average with a .921 save percentage in seven starts this month. Winnipeg has allowed only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests. They have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the number at 6 or higher. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Vancouver has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. The Canucks have also played 3 of their 4 games this season Under the Total after not scoring more than one goal — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Vancouver is scoring only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they have only allowed 2.2 Goals-Per-Game over that stretch while limiting their opponents to just 27.8 shots-per-game which is 4.2 shots fewer than their season average. The Canucks will turn back to Braden Holtby tonight who has struggled in his move to the Canadien west coast after his long tenure in Washington. He did come off a promising outing in his last game where they stopped 35 of 36 shots in a win at Calgary. Vancouver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on home ice. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Canucks’ last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Vancouver struggles to get their offense going against Winnipeg — they are averaging only 1.47 Goals-Per-Game in their last 17 games against the Jets while getting shutout five times. These two teams have played 5 straight Unders after Friday — and the Canucks have played 3 of their 4 games this season Under the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one goal. 25* NHL Bailout Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Winnipeg Jets (33) and the Vancouver Canucks (34). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L13) lost their seventh match in their last nine on Monday in a 2-0 setback at Chelsea. Manchester United (W13-D7-L4) come off a disappointing 1-1 draw at West Bromwich Albion.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle only registered 0.71 expected goals against the Blues to begin the week. That effort came on the heels of them scoring three times against the Saints in their previous despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fourth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer once again for this match with Callum Wilson still out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. He has been involved in 15 of the team’s 25 goals. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. On the plus side, the Magpies have only allowed more than two goals just once in their last twelve matches. Man United has only won once in their last five EPL matches. They registered a mere 0.61 xG against a suspect West Brom team with a leaky defense. The Red Devils have scored 50 goals this season — but their xG plummets to just 42.08 which suggests the team has been rather fortunate in the goal-scoring department. At home at Old Trafford, Man United has 25 goals but just 22.50 xG. Man United did score four times in their 4-0 win against Real Sociedad in the Europa League — but fatigue and rotation may play a role in this match on the short turnaround. The Red Devils tend to have their best scoring games when playing a team that plays on their front foot. But when they play a cautious defensive-minded club, Man United tends to struggle to score goals. They have been consistent defensively — they have held their last six opponents in the EPL to just 0.92 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Newcastle has been blanked in seven of their last eight matches on the road. They lost at home to Man United in the reverse fixture in October by a 4-1 score. Bruce would be thrilled with a draw in this match — expect a very conservative approach from the Magpies. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7) versus the Montreal Canadiens (8). THE SITUATION: Toronto (13-3-2) has won two in a row with their 7-3 win against Ottawa on Thursday. Montreal (9-4-2) takes the ice for the first time since last Saturday when they defeated these Maple Leafs by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAPLE LEAFS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I hate this situation for the Canadiens. They have been able to bask in the glow of their triumph against Toronto for an entire week while getting rusty with the six-days off from competition. Expect a slow start for this Montreal team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Canadiens have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after a win at home by one goal against a divisional foe. Montreal has not been great at home this season without the support of their fans. They have lost 7 of their last 10 games on their home ice. And while the Canadiens and Maple Leafs appear to be the two best teams in the reconfigured North Division, I don’t buy the Montreal is at the same level as this loaded Toronto team. Led by Auston Matthews who has taken his game to another level this year with a league-leading 16 goals, the Maple Leafs are averaging 29.4 shots-per-game while converting on a scorching 32.7% of their Power Play chances — and Montreal has lost 19 of their last 28 home games against opponents who average at least 29.5 shots-per-game and converting on the Power Play at least 17% of the time. Toronto has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a divisional rival. They have also won a decisive 42 of their last 59 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. The Maple Leafs have also won 4 of their last 5 games when playing their third game in four days. The Leafs have been good road warriors who have won 5 of their last 6 away from home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 road games when priced as a favorite. Toronto has also won 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total at 6 or higher. This is a good team that beat 8 of their last 9 opponents with winning records — and they have won 9 of their last 12 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Maple Leafs have been waiting all week for Saturday night to avenge last week’s loss — they have won 6 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. Toronto has also won 20 of their last 27 games when avenging a loss where they only scored one goal. 25* NHL North Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7) versus the Montreal Canadiens (8). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (14-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 91-90 upset loss in double-overtime against Oklahoma as a 4-point favorite. Texas (13-5) has won two games in a row after their 70-55 win against TCU as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made only 42.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 85 points. The Mountaineers have played six straight Overs while scoring at least 82 points in three straight games. They have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. West Virginia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last eight days. The Mountaineers tend to play higher-scoring games because they generate additional scoring opportunities. They are 10th in the nation by rebounding 36.2% of their missed shots. They are also 30th nationally by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. In their last five games, the Mountaineers are scoring 83.8 PPG. But they have also allowed their last five opponents to make 45.4% of their shots which is generating 79.6 PPG. West Virginia ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which would make them one of head coach Bob Huggins’ best offensive teams in his career. But he has had many better teams on the defensive end of the court — this group ranks only 64th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Mountaineers have played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number in the 140s. Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. The Longhorns are an excellent defensive team who ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But COVID pauses and now ice storms and power outages may be taking their toll on Shaka Smart’s team. While they hold their opponents to 67.6 PPG on 40.5% shooting, their last five opponents have made 44.6% of their shots which is generating 74.0 PPG. Texas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 6 points. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Texas won the first meeting between these two teams on January 9th when they upset West Virginia in Morgantown by a 1.5-point underdog. The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-15) won their third game in their last four contests on Wednesday with their 105-102 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (19-10) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 118-113 win against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was fourth straight games for the Bulls where they scored at least 105 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in at least three straight games. Chicago is seeing an average of 230 combined points scored in their games this season under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They go back on the road where they are scoring 118.7 PPG on 49.2% shooting. They are also allowing their home hosts score 116.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. Additionally, Chicago has played 23 of their last 33 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Bulls have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a dog overall — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia shot 48.1% from the field on Wednesday which was tied for the lowest shooting effort in their last nine games. The 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They did not have Ben Simmons against the Rockets who missed the game because of an illness — but he should be back on the court tonight. Philly stays at home where they make 49.5% of their shots en route to 118.4 PPG. They allow their guests to score 112.4 PPG. The Sixers have played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 29 home games Over the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: UPDATE: Simmons is not playing tonight due to the illness that has dogged him this week (despite having the “probable” listing). No big deal (and this possibility is why I liked the Over versus a potential Philly side play) — the Over is still a strong technical play and what the Sixers lose with his offense, they also lose his elite defensive talents tonight which should ensure the Bulls approach their road scoring average. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W8-D6-L10) has won two of their last three EPL matches after their 2-1 win at Southampton on Sunday. Leeds United (W10-D2-L11) has lost two of their last three matches with their 4-2 loss at Arsenal on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have righted their ship after a winless eight-match stretch. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has defeated the Saints and Arsenal with a draw against Leicester City in their last three EPL matches. Being eliminated from the Europa League and now de-emphasizing the FA Cup has allowed Nuno to privilege his starting XI to his best players. Wolverhampton can struggle given their lack of depth during busy fixture schedules — and the injury to Raul Jimenez took away their best goal-scorer. Adding Willian Jose to bolster the offensive attack last month has helped. The Wolves play much defense when back at home where their opponent’s expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.05 is much better than their 1.49 xGA when on the road. Wolverhampton has won the expected goals battle in three straight matches. Leeds United has lost the xG battle in six of their last seven matches. The Whites may be suffering from fatigue given the active pressing attack that manager Marcelo Bielsa deploys without much of a bench. Leeds is riddled with injuries right now as well to further rob them of depth. The Whites have 18 points on the road in their 12 matches — but their expected points (xPTS) plummets to 12.46 in those road matches. Leeds is last in the EPL in xGA when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture by a 1-0 score when they played on October 19th. The Wolves have won four straight matches against Leeds which may be a testament to Nuno’s defensive tactics exposing the unique aggressive attack that Bielsa deploys. 25* English Premier League Friday Afternoon Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). THE SITUATION: Vermont (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 61-57 win against Stony Brook on Sunday. UMBC (13-4) has won three in a row with their 60-48 win at Stony Brook back on February 8th as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vermont held Stony Brook to just 32% shooting — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 33% or less shooting in their last game. The Catamounts are 15th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. Vermont has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Catamounts have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Vermont goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. The Catamounts have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, Vermont has played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 6 point range. The Catamounts should see their stout defense of late travel — they have held their last five opponents to just 53.8 PPG on 31.8% shooting from the field. UMBC held Stony Brook to 32.0% shooting in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33%. Additionally, the Retrievers have played 5 straight Unders after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. UMBC is also playing outstanding defense right now — they have held their last five opponents to just 60.4 PPG on 37.5% shooting. The Retrievers rank 17th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. But will UMBC be rusty with their shooting playing their first game in ten days? They are only making 42.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Retrievers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. UMBC has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Retrievers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Vermont has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB America East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). THE SITUATION: Butler (7-11) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 78-63 loss at Georgetown as a 1.5-point underdog. Marquette (9-12) has lost three in a row after their 57-51 loss at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Butler made only 39.0% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. And while Butler has lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are 6-3 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home court. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. Butler has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games in expected close contests when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Head coach LeVall Jordan’s team ranks 27th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding only 23.3% of their missed shots. This skill will come in handy against this Golden Eagles team that rebounds 30.4% of their misses shots, ranking 97th nationally. Marquette lost to the Pirates on Sunday despite holding them to just 37.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last five games. The Golden Eagles have still allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots. Marquette has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Marquette is slumping with six losses in their last seven games while only covering the point spread twice in their last eight games. That is not a good sign for them tonight. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing at least four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They stay on the road for the third game of a rough five-game road trip. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. The Golden Eagles are just 3-5 on the road — and they allow their home hosts to make 38.1% of their 3-pointers, 282nd in the nation. Marquette has not covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Golden Eagles miss freshman Justin Lewis who has missed the last two games doe to a leg injury that leaves him questionable tonight. While he is is scoring only 8.1 PPG, he is one of their best defenders. Butler will be motivated to avenge a 70-67 loss at Marquette on February 2nd as a 4.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Butler Bulldogs (672) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (13-13) has lost two straight games after their 104-91 upset loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (15-11) has won three in a row with their 122-105 upset win against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston shot only 35.6% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. That was the Celtics’ second-straight upset loss after getting stung by Detroit on Friday in a 108-102 loss as a 7-point underdog. The consensus from the players is that they simply need to work harder. Boston has lost ten of their last fifteen games — but injuries have played a role. Marcus Smart is still out with his calf injury after missing the last couple of weeks. But Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown are back on the court after missing time to join Jayson Tatum to form their big three. Brown and Tatum are emerging into superstars in this league. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Boston has played two straight Unders — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after playing two straight Unders. And while the Celtics have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by up to 6 points. Denver may be due for a letdown after upset the defending NBA champions — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by at least 15 points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning at least two in a row. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after scoring at least 120 points in their last game including six of these eight occasions this season. The Nuggets are ravaged with injuries: Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier are all out with Monte Morris questionable with a shoulder. Those players are two starters and another three important rotation players. Denver goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201) in the first leg of the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool comes off a 3-1 loss at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. RB Leipzig defeated Augsburg on Friday by a 2-1 score in the Bundesliga. This match will be played on a neutral field in Budapest.

REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is ravaged with injuries and they are in as worse of form as they have been in over three years. Manager Jurgen Klopp may be without ten front-line players for this match. The crisis starts at center back where they have lost Virgil Van Dijk, Joel Matip, and Joe Gomez to season-ending injuries. Klopp may not have the services of James Milner and Fabinho who suffered knocks over the weekend. These injuries in the back have forced Klopp to move Fabinho and Jordan Henderson from holding midfielder positions to center back. Not only does that put them out of position but it takes away from Klopp’s ability to implement their high press. The Reds’ attackers are not in their best form either with fatigue (and recovering from COVID for Mo Salah) seeming to be issues. Diogo Jota was a shot in the arm for this team after transferring from Wolverhampton but the attacking midfielder is yet another player on the shelf. Liverpool limps into this match with three straight losses in games where they lost the expected goals battle in each contest. The Reds have lost five of their last seven across all competitions. Since the end of the Group Stage in the Champions League in December, Liverpool has won only five of their fifteen matches with six losses. The Reds only allowed three goals in four Group Stage UCL matches — their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 9.4 suggests they were very fortunate. Since Christmas, Liverpool has an xGA of 1.28 which is a significant dropoff from their 1.03 xGA last season. The Reds have also struggled away from home in the EPL this season with a W4-D5-L3 mark as compared to their W7-D2-L3 record at home at Anfield. RB Leipzig survived the Group of Death in the Champions League with a clutch 3-2 victory against Manchester United to eliminate the Red Devils from the competition. PSG was also in their Group H. The Red Bulls have since only lost two of their last thirteen matches — and they enter this match on a four-game winning streak. Defense was an issue in the Champions League — but this is usually a tight defensive team. They have registered nine clean sheets across all competitions since advancing to the Round of 16. RB Leipzig has an xGA of 0.88 in the Bundesliga which is the third-best defensive mark across the top-five leagues in Europe. The Red Bulls leads the German top-flight with a +24.3 expected goals net differential.

FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be relatively new to the elite European competition levels — but this is an experienced core of players that went to the Semifinals of the Champions League last summer. They will not fear the moment. They were supposed to host this first leg but COVID restrictions in Germany required this match to be moved to a neutral field in Budapest. That offers little help to Liverpool who is simply not playing with much confidence right now. Klopp publicly conceded that his team would not successfully defend their EPL title this year given their current place in the standings — but I don’t think they can flip the switch in European competition. They tried flipping the switch at home against Man City — yet they were dominated by a 4-1 score earlier this month. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Month with RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (12). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-12-1) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 2-1 win at Winnipeg. Toronto (11-3-1) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at home to Montreal on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Senator have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least two goals or less in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last contest. Ottawa has not scored more than two goals in five straight games while averaging just 1.4 goals-per-game over that stretch. The Senators have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are averaging only 2.1 goals-per-game — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games away from home. Marcus Hogberg is between the pipes tonight — and I am not going to sugarcoat that. But Matt Murray has no confidence right now as the primary starter for this team so it is not as if waiting for the former Penguin makes sense. There is a reason why the Total is 6.5 — and Ottawa has not allowed more than three goals in five of their last six games. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Senators’ last 7 games as an underdog. And while the Maple Leafs average 3.5 goals-per-games, Ottawa has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 3.0 goals-per-game. Toronto has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Maple Leafs have played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. And in their last 19 games after a game where no more than three combined goals were scored, the game finished Under the Total 12 times. Toronto stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. The Under is also 13-3-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last 17 home games when favored. Frederick Andersen should be the goalie tonight. Andersen has a 2.55 Goals-Against-Average with a .909 save percentage in 13 starts but his numbers improve to a 2.00 GAA with a .926 save percentage in his 8 starts at home. Toronto has not allowed more than two goals in four straight games as they are finally beginning to embrace a more defensive approach that will serve them well in the postseason.

FINAL TAKE: Ottawa will be looking to avenge a 3-2 loss at home back on January 16th — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NHL North Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (11) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L12) has won two of their last three matches in the English Premier League with their 3-2 win against Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D6-L6) has won four straight games across all competitions with their last match in the EPL last Sunday when they defeated Sheffield United on the road, 2-1.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle scored three times against the Saints last week despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fifth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer in this match as well with Callum Wilson out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. The Magpies have only allowed more two goals once in their last eleven matches. Chelsea has only allowed one goal in the five matches under new manager Thomas Tuchel — and that was an own-goal against the Blades last week. The Blues then played on Thursday when they shutout Barnsdale, 1-0, in FA Cup action. Chelsea is dominating possession which is helping them limit scoring opportunities for their opponents. The Blues’ four EPL opponents under Tuchel are averaging just 0.55 xG — and they have not allowed a Big Chance (representing a scoring opportunity with a success rate of 35% or higher). But Chelsea is not generating many scoring opportunities themselves under Tuchel. They are averaging only 0.93 non-penalty kick xG in their four league matches under Tuchel. They have scored only six goals in the five matches under Tuchel.

FINAL TAKE: Tuchel has holding midfielder N’Golo Kante healthy again to fortify the defensive structure of his team. Chelsea defeated Newcastle, 2-0, in the reverse fixture on November 21st. That feels like the final score for this rematch — although 1-0 might be the result. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (9-7) had won three of their last four games before getting upset at home yesterday to the Stags, 55-50, despite being an 11-point favorite. Fairfield (5-13) has pulled off two straight upset victories.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: When Saint Peter’s struggles, it is because they can’t make baskets. The Peacocks made only 32.7% of their shots yesterday which was the third-lowest shooting mark for them all season and their worst shooting effort when playing at home. Leading scorer KC Ndefo was in foul trouble all game and played only 22 minutes — so the reset today will help. These two teams went into halftime yesterday with the score tied, 17-17. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games after playing at home where they did not score more than 60 points. Head coach Shaheen Holloway’s group does play ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks second in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. They held Fairfield to 37.3% shooting which was actually the highest opponent field goal percentage they allowed in their last six games. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.0% of their opponent’s possessions which is 42nd in the country. The Stags are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions away from, 245th in the nation. They turned the ball over 17 times yesterday accounting for 27.7% of their possessions. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight — they just need to make more than just 2 of 17 shots from behind the arc as they did yesterday. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They suffered their first loss at home in six games yesterday — but they are still outscoring their visitors by +7.9 PPG due to their defense that holds their opponents to 55.8 PPG on 35.4% shooting. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. Fairfield is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a conference opponent. Fairfield’s defensive effort was out of the ordinary — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after holding their previous opponent to 33% of less shooting. The Stags have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after not allowing more than 50 points. They allow their home hosts to made 45.3% of their shots which results in 70.0 PPG — and they allow conference foes to shoot 46.5%. Fairfield may not crack 50 points in this rematch either as they score only 58.0 PPG on the road on 38.4% shooting. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their shots at home. Fairfield has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total under 130.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Saint Peter’s nine wins have been by double-digits — so they have been able to generate enough offense to cover 10 or so points. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite laying 7 or more points. Saint Peter’s has also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (820) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (819). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D4-L6) earned a late 3-3 draw at Manchester United last Saturday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Fulham (W2-D9-L11) is winless in their last 12 matches after a 0-0 draw with West Ham last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees showed grit last week by scoring in the final moments of stoppage time to earn the 1-point from the draw with Man United who is currently second place in the EPL. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s then followed that up on Wednesday by outlasting Tottenham by a 5-4 score to advance in the FA Cup. Everton has scored eight goals in their last two matches — both against traditional Big Six sides — and they have scored ten goals in their last three matches across all competitions. This is a team that tends to feast on the bottom half of the table as well — they have a +3.08 net expected points differential against these clubs. They return home where they will have something to prove at Goodison Park after a flat 2-0 effort in their most recent home match in league play. Ancelotti is dealing with some injuries for this match with forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin and keeper Jordan Pickford out and defenseman Lucas Digne questionable with a knock. While the Toffees will miss DCL up top, his goal-scoring is mostly from poaching. Richarlison will move up the pitch to take that role — and the team still has James Rodriguez in the middle of the pitch. The Colombian is the straw who stirs the drink for this team when he is healthy. Fulham is struggling to score goals — they have managed only four goals in their last eight matches. Over their last 12 games, they have generated only 0.96 expected goals. The Cottagers are also leaky on defense. In their last six matches, Fulham is bottom-four in Big Chances Allowed (representing scoring opportunities with a success rate of 35% or higher). In their last seven matches, the Cottagers are allowing an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.74. And against teams in the top-seven in the EPL table (including Everton), they have an xGA of 1.98.

FINAL TAKE: The concern for manager Scott Parker with his Fulham team is that he changed tactics to play more conservatively after their 3-2 loss at home to Everton on November 22nd. The Toffees generated 1.99 xG that match. The Cottagers saw a short-term improvement in defense — but this better play has waned while the Fulham attack has suffered. Everton needs this victory after giving away points in some recent matches (like Newcastle). 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). VMI (10-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 74-72 loss at Western Carolina on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Samford (6-10) has lost three straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 77-70 loss to Mercer as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KEYDETS MINUS THE POINTS: VMI allowed the Catamounts to make 45.2% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. They should play better this afternoon since they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread in seven of these last eight situations. The Keydets have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. This is VMI’s just second game since February 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games if they are not playing more than their second game in the last week. They return home where they are 9-1 this season with an average winning margin of +16.1 PPG. They make 50.6% of their shots at home which is generating 89.2 PPG — and they hold their guests to just 40.8% shooting from the field. The Keydets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games including their last seven games. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. This is VMI’s first home game in their last four games after playing their last three contests on the road. Their last home game was on January 27th — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games after playing at least their last three games on the road. The Keydets are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation as they are 24th nationally with a 38.2% shooting mark from behind the arc — and they improve to a 43.6% shooting percentage from downtown when playing in their own gym, 10th best in the nation. Defending the perimeter is an area of weakness for the Bulldogs as they rank 332nd nationally by allowing their opponents to nail 47.7% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road. Samford is also 323rd in the nation with an opponent's free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.0% — and VMI makes 78.7% of their free throws at home, ranking 23rd nationally. The Bulldogs make 47.3% of their shots on Wednesday in a losing effort which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after losing two in a row. The Bulldogs have surrendered at least 77 points in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight contests. They go back on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Additionally, Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the total set in the 150s — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs make only 29.4% of their 3-pointers, 313th nationally, so it may be difficult for them to stay competitive in this one. VMI averages 11 made 3-pointers per game — and Samford has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after 15 games into the season against teams who average at least 8 made 3s per contest. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games with the Total in the 150s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: VMI will be motivated to avenge an 84-71 loss at Samford as a 2.5-point underdog on December 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Southern Conference Game of the Year with the VMI Keydets (616) minus the points versus the Samford Bears (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). THE SITUATION: UAB (16-2) has won six straight games with their 75-60 win against UTEP as an 8.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (15-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 57-55 loss at North Texas as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers made 53.8% of their shots last Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. UAB has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Blazers have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They are likely going to not shoot as well tonight as they did against the Miners — their 45.2% effective field goal percentage when playing on the road, 287th in the nation. They make only 41.5% of their shots on the road which translates into just 62.7 PPG. But UAB holds their home hosts to only 56.7 PPG on 41.4% shooting. The Blazers rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 23rd in the nation in true road games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s — including playing Unders in six of these last seven games. Louisiana Tech has played a decisive 51 of their last 82 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. This is the Bulldogs’ second game since last Friday — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in the last seven days. Louisiana Tech has not allowed more than 63 points in five straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least three straight games. They have held their last five opponents to just 60.0 PPG on 39.9% shooting from the field. But they are scoring only 67.4 PPG in these previous five games. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total as a favorite of 3 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Under is 7-2-1 in UAB’s last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60%. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-13) has lost four games in a row after their 104-94 upset loss at Brooklyn last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (6-18) snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 122-111 upset win against the Nets as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made only 39.1% of their shots last night in what was the worst offensive effort of their season. The Pacers’ starting five scored only 51 points in that game. Indiana should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit upset loss. Indiana has not covered the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last seven — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And the Pacers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Indiana stays on the road where they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a favorite. The Pacers are without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert who they acquired in the Victor Oladipo trade — but they have still taken care of business with a 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. The Pistons play at a fast tempo who averages 89 shot attempts-per-game — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games against teams who average at least 88 shots-per-game. Detroit made 56% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort of their season in what was just the third time all season that they made at least 50% of their shots — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a point spread win. They did allow the Nets to make 50% of their shots on the heels of allowing the Laker to make 56.0% of their shots in their previous game. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Pistons are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Duane Casey is doing a fine job with one of the worst rosters in the league. Detroit is usually competitive — but they lost one of their best players over the weekend when they shipped Derrick Rose to New York for the underachieving Dennis Smith who was one of the worst players in the NBA last season before getting relegated to the end of the bench for the Knicks (!) this year. Maybe Smith can be salvaged but that will be a long-term project. Detroit shoots only 42.7% when playing at home so their shooting should come back to earth when now playing a team that attempts to play defense (versus the Kyrie Irving/James Harden Nets’ last night). The Pistons have scored 251 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Detroit is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against Central Division foes. And while this is a team that plays hard most nights, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their expected close games this season. Look for Indiana to take care of this business in this winnable game. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). THE SITUATION: Stanford (12-7) has won two games in a row after their 76-70 win against California as a 10.5-point favorite on Sunday. Colorado (15-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 78-49 win against Oregon State as a 13-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL PLUS THE POINT(S): The Buffaloes made 55.8% of their shots for the second-straight game to defeat the Beavers. But Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. They also held Oregon State to just 32.7% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last 15 games. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 50 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 foe — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least 15 of their last 20 games. Now after getting rich at home in the high-altitude of Boulder where they are 8-1 this season after a four-game homestand, they go back on the road for the first time since January 23rd. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning their previous two games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road after winning their last two games at home. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after playing at least three straight games at home. Colorado ranks 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home fueled by them nailing 44.0% of their 3-pointers in Boulder, 8th best in the nation. But in their eight true road games on their opponent’s home court, the Buffaloes make only 29.7% of their 3-pointers, 269th in the nation, while falling to 68th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in true road games. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 56 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Stanford has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home against a Pac-12 foe. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after winning at least two in a row. The Cardinal made 58.3% of their shots against the Golden Bears — but that was the third straight game when they shot at least 51.9% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 55% in their last contest. This is a very tough team to beat if they are making their shots as they rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are also 9th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. They are 5-1 at home where they are making 51.4% of their shots while holding their guests to 41.1% shooting. Stanford is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games at home — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinal will be looking to avenge a 77-64 loss at Colorado on January 16th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with same-season revenge. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Stanford Cardinal (718) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus Colorado Buffaloes (717). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (9-6) has won two of their last three games with their 82-80 win against Notre Dame as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Virginia (13-3) has won nine of their last ten with their 73-66 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Tech should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a home win against an ACC rival. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. Georgia Tech shot a season-high 58.3% from the field on Saturday which would usually give me pause — but that was the fifth time in their last nine games where they shot at least 50% from the field. Furthermore, good offensive efforts are usually a good sign for this team as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after shooting at least 55% from the field — including both times this season. They stay at home on North Avenue in Atlanta where they rank 22nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.6 net PPG. Georgia Tech scores 83.0 PPG at home where they make 48.7% of their shots. The Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games as an underdog. They did allow the Fighting Irish to make 59.3% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst defensive effort of their season — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while Georgia Tech has not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight contests. This is a program that has covered the point spread in 50 of their last 74 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia made 53.2% of their shots on Saturday against Pitt which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Cavaliers have allowed only 27 and 24 points in the first half in two straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Virginia has been favored in ten straight games since their showdown with Gonzaga — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after being favored in at least four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being favored in at least five straight games. They go back on the road where they are just 4-3 this season — and they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record at home. The Cavaliers are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when favored — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech will be looking to avenge a narrow 64-62 loss to the Cavaliers in Charlottesville on January 23rd as an 8.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (670) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-5) has won four of their last five games after their 91-79 win against Kansas on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Texas Tech (14-5) has won three in a row with their 73-62 victory at Kansas State as a 15.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. Additionally, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Mountaineers shot 50% from the field on Saturday which initially gave me pause that it was an outlier performance. But this is one of Bob Huggins’ best shooting teams in his career — they are second in the Big 12 by making 42.9% of their 3-pointers. They are making 46.7% of their shots over their last five games which is resulting in an 80.8 PPG scoring average. Huggins also deploys a style of play that generates more scoring opportunities even if their shots are not falling. West Virginia pulls down 36.1% of their missed shots, 10th in the nation. They also force turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Mountaineers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 4 straight games on the road with the number in the 140 to 149.5 range. Furthermore, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total. Texas Tech has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Red Raiders have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Texas Tech made 47.1% of their shots on Saturday — the best shooting effort in their last six games. Again, that gave me an initial pause. Yet the Red Raiders only scored 30 points in the first half in that game after scoring a mere 25 points in their previous game against Oklahoma. Texas Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. And the Red Raiders’ defensive play has not been quite as stingy as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 44.1% of their shots resulting in 68.2 PPG which is a sharp uptick from the 61.7 PPG they allow on 40.5% shooting for the season. Texas Tech has allowed their last two opponents to score just 52 and 62 points — but they have then played 33 of their last 49 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Red Raiders also create a bench of additional scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are 24th in the nation by pulling down 34.7% of their missed shots. They are seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions. And head coach Chris Beard’s team is 14th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Over Total when favored — and 3 of their 4 games this season against teams winning 60 to 80% of their games finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Raiders will be looking to avenge an 88-87 loss to the Mountaineers in Morgantown on January 25th. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). THE SITUATION: Kansas (12-7) has lost five of their last seven games after their 91-79 loss at West Virginia on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 75-67 win in double-overtime against Texas on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas allowed the Mountaineers to make 50% of their shots — that was just the fourth time all season that they have allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. The Jayhawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to score at least 90 points in their last game. The five losses for head coach Bill Self’s team were all on the road during this recent tough stretch of games — and the two wins were their only two games at home at Allen Fieldhouse. This is just their third game at home since January 9th. Playing at home will help — Kansas is 8-1 on their home court this season while outscoring their opponents by +12.1 PPG. The Jayhawks should play much better on the defensive end of the court as they hold their guests to just 38.5% shooting which is resulting in just 60.8 PPG. This team has been very reliable under Self when bouncing-back from losses. Kansas is 46-21-3 ATS in their last 70 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival. The Jayhawks have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a loss on the road by 10 or more points. Kansas has only covered the point spread twice in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Playing at home should help the Jayhawks get a few more whistles (even without fans) as their opponents have only been called for 12 and 13 personal fouls in their last two games. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight games where their opponents did not get call for more than 15 personal fouls in their last game. Oklahoma State held the Longhorns to just 25.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their previous opponent to no better than 33% shooting. Additionally, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset win as a home dog. Furthermore, the Cowboys are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four games. Now Oklahoma State goes back on the road for just the third time since January 9th. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 50 of their last 77 road games as an underdog of 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Oklahoma State has been living on the edge as they have allowed their last two opponents to attempt 11 and 12 more shots from the field. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after taking at least 10 fewer shots than their opponent in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas will be motivated to avenge a 75-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point underdog on January 12th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Kansas Jayhawks (864) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (863). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (67) and the New York Rangers (68). THE SITUATION: The New York Islanders (4-4-2) snapped a five-game losing streak on Saturday with their 4-3 win at home against Pittsburgh. The New York Rangers (4-4-2) have won two straight as well as three of their last four after their victory against Washington on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Islanders have scored more than three goals just three times this season. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a narrow win at home by just one goal. The Islanders have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least three goals. They have also played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where at least seven combined goals were scored. And while the Islanders' previous game was a 4-3 loss at Philadelphia, they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. They go back on the road where they are scoring only 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. Semyon Varlamov will be between the pipes tonight with his 2.14 Goals-Against-Average and .921 save percentage in seven starts this season. Varlamov was reliable on the road last year with a 2.36 GAA along with a .922 save percentage. The Islanders have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is a decisive 34-16-3 in their last 53 road games as an underdog. The Rangers have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a win at home where they scored at least four goals. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two in a row on home ice. This is the Rangers’ fourth straight game at home at Madison Square Garden where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games at home Under the Total when favored. Igor Shesterkin will be in goal tonight given his improved form as of late. He had 31 saves on Saturday against the Capitals. Shesterkin is making a claim to be the team’s top goalie with 79 saves in the 84 shots he has faced in his last three games for a .940 save percentage. In his four starts at home this season, Shesterkin has a 2.35 GAA with a .913 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams after the Rangers’ 5-0 victory back on January 16th. 25* NHL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Islanders (67) and the New York Rangers (68). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City scored 21 points in the second quarter en route to their easy victory over the Bills while demonstrating just how good their offense is when full-engaged. The Chiefs scored 32.1 PPG in their first ten games of the season before going on cruise control a bit which coincided with their 27-24 victory at Tampa Bay on November 29th in Week 12. Kansas City also raced out to a 19-3 halftime lead in their previous game against Cleveland. A fast start for Patrick Mahomes should help ensure this becomes a high-scoring game — they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Since the Chiefs “flipped the switch” in the postseason again, they have averaged 7.06 and 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in two straight games. Kansas City has also scored 31.6 PPG in their eight games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 363 yards to the Bills — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown (who should be healthy again for the Super Bowl) midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is scoring 34.3 PPG while averaging 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in six straight games — win or lose, I suspect they will hit the 30-point threshold for a seventh straight game. And I expect Mahomes to at least be able to keep up since KC will keep their foot on the gas pedal all game — ensuring our Over. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. The Buccaneers defense allowed the Packers to gain 381 yards — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards. Tampa Bay has seen at least 50 points in six straight games — and not only have they played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing four straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Buccaneers have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. Giving head coach Bruce Arian to dial-up plays and a strategy to react to their loss just over two months ago should ensure the Bucs’ score more points this time around — and that should push this rematch above the number. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). THE SITUATION: Man City (W14-D5-L2) has won nine straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-0 win at Burnley on Wednesday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L4) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manchester City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season with manager Pep Guardiola shifting tactics a bit. He also found a dominant defensive pairing at center back in Ruben Dias partnering with John Stones. In the Cityzens’ last 12 matches which has featured this pairing, they have surrendered just one goal. Perhaps even more impressive, Man City has allowed a mere 5.43 combined expected goals (xG) over that span. Their defense has been suffocating. Burnley barely registered 0.07 xG on Wednesday. They have not allowed these last 12 opponents to generate more than 1.0 xG. And even the one goal they allowed over this span was a meaningless stoppage-time goal to Chelsea in a 3-1 victory. Man City has eight clean sheets in their last nine EPL matches — and they have an incredible 16 clean sheets in their last 20 contests. Yet all this defense is coming at a cost. The offensive attack has been reeled in a bit. The Cityzens are averaging 1.99 xG this season which is a drop off from their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG marks in the previous two seasons. Some of this is tactics — but some of this dropoff is also because the starting XI is without key scoring talent. Their best pure goal-scorer is Sergio Aguero but has barely played this season. Their best overall offensive player for goal-scoring, assists, and penalty kicks is Kevin DeBruyne but he is out with an injury. Man City has not registered 2.0 xG or higher in three straight matches — they are simply not generating many Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a success rate of 35% or higher). On the road, while the Cityzens have scored 24 goals, their xG drops to 19.15  for a more modest 1.74 xG per match. Liverpool is in a scoring slump right now in a combination of bad luck and attackers out-of-form. The Reds have not scored in three straight home matches — and it has been a stunning 348 minutes since they last scored a goal at home at Anfield. In their last four matches overall, Liverpool is averaging just 1.48 xG per match. Granted, the Reds expect Sadio Mane to be back on the pitch for this showdown — and the underlying numbers indicate that they should be seeing more scoring. Well, no kidding! Facing an opponent who will not be content to park the bus in back will help. But Man City is not the side a team wants to face to break out of their scoring doldrums. Jurgen Klopp’s team has been strong defensively still — even with plenty of injuries. Since losing defensive back Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool is allowing just 1.08 expected goals (xGA) per match. And some of this defensive success comes from Klopp also choosing to rein in his offensive attack. One of the residual impacts of the altered schedule this season given COVID’s impact on the 2019-20 campaign is a condensed schedule. Uber-aggressive pressing teams like Man City and Liverpool have been less ambitious simply because of player fatigue. Expect both managers to exhibit caution in this showdown. Guardiola will be satisfied with a draw.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on November 8th in a match where both defenses were not playing nearly as well as they are now. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Memphis (9-8) has lost two in a row after their 115-103 upset loss at home to Houston on Thursday as a 4-point favorite. New Orleans (9-12) has won two in a row with their 114-113 upset win at Indiana last night as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis had been on a seven-game winning streak where they held allowed only 104.3 PPG before losing their last two games against the Rockets and Indiana by double-digits. The Grizzlies made only 42.5% of their shots which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. This group had been doing better in provide offensive support for their superstar, Ja Morant. Memphis has still made 49.9% of their shots in their last five games while averaging 117.8 PPG over that span. The Grizzlies’ starters combined to make only 34.6% of their shots with Morant only 6 of 15 for 15 points. Memphis should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. Taylor Jenkins is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA. Even with this team playing without two of their top three players, Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Justise Winslow, while being hit pretty hard by COVID quarantining protocols, Memphis remains seventh in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — and the Grizzlies are 6-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG while making 48.5% of their shots. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Killian Tillie has been downgraded to out with a foot issue and Brandon Clarke is questionable with a calf — but reinforcements are returning for Jenkins with Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen upgraded to probable after being in quarantine. New Orleans has pulled off two straight upset victories against Phoenix and the Pacers last night — and they have won four of their last six games. The Pelicans made 53.9% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort of the season. They also held Indiana to 44.1% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last five games — although the Pacers did make 20 of their 42 shots from downtown. New Orleans has still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 116.8 PPG. The Pelicans are 25th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency under the first-year of head coach Stan Van Gundy. New Orleans’ starting five logged-in 162:01 combined minutes last night — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when their starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes the previous day. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the points spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when laying the points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (10-9) has lost four of their last five games after their 61-45 loss at Arkansas on Tuesday as a 7.5-point underdog. South Carolina (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 72-66 upset win at Florida as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi State made only 30.6% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 18 games going back to their opening game of the season on November 25th. Head coach Ben Howland’s team should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games after a straight-up loss including covering the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after a loss. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. And in their last 12 games after a loss to an SEC opponent, the Bulldogs have responded to cover the point spread 10 times. Howland’s team plays consistently well on the defensive end of the court — they have held their last three opponents to just 37.0% or worse shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 39.9% shooting which has resulted in only 63.6 PPG. This strong defense travels — Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Their game with the Razorbacks finished well below the 144 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring more than 60 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 55 points. Mississippi State should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities — they rank 6th in the nation by pulling down 36.8% of their missed shots. The Gamecocks are vulnerable in this area as they rank 11th in the SEC with a 33.2% defensive rebounding rate — and they allow their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their misses overall which is 264th in the nation. South Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played only four times this season — and they make only 42.2% of their shots at home. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range — including four of these last six situations. And in their last 47 home games when favored by 3 points or less, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 31 times.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Frank Martin’s team also likes to crash the glass — they are 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. But the Bulldogs are a better defensive rebounding team that limits their opponents to just 26.2% second-chance opportunities. Mississippi State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.7 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against opponents with a +7.0 or better RPG clip. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (671) plus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (672). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W11-D5-L6) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 3-1 win at Aston Villa on Wednesday. Fulham (W2-D8-L11) is winless in their last 11 matches after losing at home to Leicester City on Wednesday, 2-0.

REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers have been a solid team all season — but they become much better when Michail Antonio is healthy and on the pitch. Antonio was out for the last few weeks of 2020 but his return has helped propel West Ham during this recent run. Getting midfielder Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United always gives this team an experienced goal scorer — he found the back of the net twice in his debut with the team against the Villans. West Ham started playing much better during Project Restart this summer. Manager David Moyes’ tactical decision to move Antonio up to forward rather than attacking midfielder — a decision out of necessity at the time given injuries — has proven to be fruitful over the longer-run. The Hammers generated 1.92 expected goals (xG) against a solid defensive club in Aston Villa midweek while generating 20 shots. West Ham averages 1.60 xG this season while allowing only 1.27 expected goals (xGA). The Hammers feast on the weaker teams in the league — in their 11 matches against bottom-half of the table teams, West Ham averages 1.89 xG with a net expected goals differential of +8.07. Fulham started playing better when manager Scott Parker abandoned the aggressive pressing system that worked in the Champions League but was getting blistered in the top-flight. But while the counter-attacking approach has helped them earn more draws, they still are allowing 1.74 xGA this season — and that number rises to 1.97 xGA against teams in the top-six. Yet the change in tactics has made the Cottagers toothless in their attack. Their 17 goals are the third-fewest in the EPL. They have only scored four times in their last eleven EPL contests — and they have a 0.90 xG during that span. Fulham has registered a mere eight shots inside the six-yard box this season which is the fewest in the league. Unfortunately for Parker, they have also conceded 28 shots in the box which is the most in the EPL. Playing at home at Cottage Park has offered little help as Fulham’s 6 points are the fewest of all teams in their home park. Their seven goals scored at home is also the lowest mark in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams on November 7th in a 1-0 victory. The Hammers registered three shots inside the six-yard box while posting a healthy 1.56 xG. The Hammers are in better form now. Getting three points from the win in this one could put West Ham in the top-four in the table going into next week. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Match of the Month with the West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). THE SITUATION: NC State (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 65-57 loss at home to Virginia on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. Boston College (3-10) has lost five of their last six games with their 80-70 loss at Notre Dame as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State made only 43.4% of their shots against the tough Cavaliers’ defense on Wednesday — that was the worst offensive effort in their last five games. They did get 23 points from Jericole Hellems. The junior has averaged 23.5 PPG in his last two games taking over the role as the team’s go-to scorer after the season-ending ACL injury to Devon Daniels on January 28th in the game against Wake Forest. Daniels was averaging 16.5 PPG. D.J. Funderburk also scored 9 points in 17 minutes of play after not playing in the previous game at Syracuse for an undisclosed university issue. Head coach Kevin Keatts’ team should still generate plenty of offense even without Daniels. They rank 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They generate offense from their defense — they are 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Eagles who are 188th in the country with a 19.5% turnover rate. NC State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 6 straight games on the road after losing at least three of their last four games. But defense is also an issue for Keatts’ team as they rank 14th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolfpack go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots which is translating into 80.0 PPG. They have played 7 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s. NC State has also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 52.5% from the field and 79.6 PPG. Boston College has not played in about three weeks — they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest. The Eagles may be rusty with their shooting — but they are going to play at a fast pace with fresh legs. Boston College is second in the ACC in tempo — and the defensive pressure from the Wolfpack will contribute to a frenetic pace. NC State allows their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots for the season — and the Eagles have played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Boston College has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Defense is an issue for Jim Christian’s team as well as they rank 315th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage while allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc, 313th in the nation. The Eagles return home where their defense does not improve much as they allow their guests to generate an effective field goal percentage of 53.7%, 301st in the country, by allowing these visitors to make 52.7% of their 2-pointers and 36.9% of their 3-pointers. Boston College has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total with the number set at 145 to 149.5.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 20 to 40% range. It may be sloppy — but expect a fast pace between these two teams with suspect defenses. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-14) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 103-100 upset loss at home to Washington on Wednesday as a 9-point favorite. Washington (5-13) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Heat who have been hit as hard as any team in the league by injuries and COVID quarantined absences. Yet head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team is slowly getting close to 100% again. Tyler Herro played his first game since returning from quarantine on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler played his third game that night after missing ten games from quarantine. Herro scored 20 points with Butler adding 19 points — so they are getting back to playing-shape again. Miami will be without Avery Bradley and Maurice Harkless still who are still injured. Bam Adebayo has been the lone bright spot for this team this season as he continued to develop his game into becoming one of the best big men in the NBA. Perhaps the Heat were due to take a step back after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble last fall. But they are a much better team than this — and it is time for this club to get back to their winning ways as they make a run to make the playoffs now that they are getting their players back. This is Miami’s final game in a six-game homestand so getting a victory tonight will be important for morale moving forward. The Heat made only 43.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But this remains a team that has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to an NBA Southeast Division rival. That loss to the Wizards came on the heels of them getting upset on Monday at home to Charlotte — but Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Additionally, the Heat have covered the pint spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And they have not only covered the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. Washington may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wizards have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory against a Southeast Division opponent. Washington is also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Wizards get Russell Westbrook back tonight after he was rested on Wednesday — but they are not likely to replicate the 40.5% shooting effort from 3-point land again tonight even with Westbrook back. Washington simply does not have a good supporting cast for Westbrook and Bradley Beal especially after Thomas Bryant suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Raul Neto has been downgraded to out tonight with a groin. The Wizards are second-to-last in Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has only won two of their seven games since their two-week hiatus because of their COVID outbreak. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Miami to rebound with a strong effort. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-12) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 77-62 upset loss at home to Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite. Oregon State (8-7) has lost their last two games with their 57-52 loss at UCLA as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made only 38.2% of their shots against the Cougars which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Huskies have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The defense for head coach Mike Hopkins’ team has been the bigger issue this season — the 77 points they allowed against Washington State was actually the fewest in their last nine games. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. Over their last five games, Washington is scoring 74.6 PPG — but they are allowing 82.4 PPG with those five opponents making 46.9% of their shots. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-8 this season. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots which translates into 82.7 PPG. Hopkins is a Jim Boeheim disciple with his using the 2-3 zone defense that he has made a staple at Syracuse. Defensive rebounding is a weakness with that scheme — and the Huskies are allowing their opponents to rebound 39.1% of their missed shots which is 304th worst in the nation. But the 2-3 zone is intended to force ill-advised outside shots — yet Washington is seeing their home hosts nail 39.7% of their 3-pointers which is 343rd in the nation. The Huskies have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog. Oregon State should take advantage of both these vulnerabilities. The Beavers pull down a healthy 29.0% of their shots on the offensive glass — and they make 35.4% of their 3-pointers at home. Oregon State has also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Beavers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring no more than 55 points in their last contest. Oregon State did hold the Bruins to just 32.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last thirteen games. The Beavers return home where they are 7-4 while scoring 75.5 PPG. Oregon State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Beavers have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Oregon State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. And in their last 18 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Beavers have played 13 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against Pac-12 opponents. The Huskies allow 77.3 PPG — and Oregon State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who allow at least 77 PPG. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.