At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W9-D6-L6) won their first match under new manager Thomas Tuchel on Sunday in their 2-0 victory against Burnley. Tottenham (W9-D6-L5) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at Brighton and Hove Albion.

THE SITUATION: The tenor of this Chelsea team under Tuchel has been to dominate possession while staying conservative in taking chances yet suffocating their opponent’s attacking ambition. Burnley managed only one shot on Sunday — and that was only in stoppage time — while generating a mere 0.14 expected goals (xG). In their 0-0 draw with Wolverhampton, the Blues limited the Wolves to just 0.63 xG. Chelsea dominated possession in both matches controlling the ball for 66% and 67% of the time. The Blues have allowed only five combined shots in both games. Yet Chelsea is not being overly aggressive in their attack. They managed only 1.35 xG in their victory against Burnley after generating just 0.81 xG against Wolverhampton. Tottenham only managed 0.44 xG in their loss at Brighton. The Spurs’ offensive attack is toothless without Harry Kane who remains out with an ankle injury. Since leaving the match against Liverpool at halftime, Tottenham has managed only 0.48 xG in 135 minutes with just one goal, nine shots, and zero Big Chances (representing a 35% or better success rate). Manager Jose Mourinho’s tactics have quickly been exposed in the top-flight — everyone knows he wants his side to score on the occasional counter-attack with his high-skilled scoring talent like Kane. The Spurs are wilting against opponents not taking the bait in being overly aggressive. But Tottenham remains fundamentally-sound on defense. They have allowed only 21 goals which are the second-fewest in the English Premier League.

FINAL TAKE: I waited to endorse this play until Tuchel announced his lineup at 2 PM ET — he is still learning his roster and tinkering with starting XI lineups. A starting group with Christian Pulisic and Tammy Abraham and/or Oliver Giroud might have scared me off. Instead, both attack-minded players are on the bench with solid-defensive minded midfielders like Mason Mount, Mateo Kovacic, and Jorginho are on the pitch. Kai Havertz is injured for this match which takes away an offensive-oriented player. Expect Chelsea to control possession again but not be too foolish in rushing players into the attack. 25* EPL Thursday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). THE SITUATION: East Tennessee State (9-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 67-62 loss at Wofford as a 2-point underdog. Mercer (10-6) has lost their last two games after their 72-69 loss at Wofford on Saturday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: East Tennessee State should bounce-back with a strong effort. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. East Tennessee State has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games on the road after a loss to a conference rival. They allowed Wofford to make 51% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Yet the Buccaneers allowed The Citadel to shoot 53.8% from the field in their previous game which was their worst defensive effort — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140s. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their home games. Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after a straight-up loss. The Bears return home where they are 6-1 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Mercer has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. East Tennessee State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Southern Conference Underdog of the Year with the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (677) plus the points versus the Mercer Bears (678). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (200037) and Liverpool (200038). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W4-D9-L8) is unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions after their 1-0 win against Tottenham on Sunday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L3) has won their last two matches with their 3-1 win against West Ham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brighton has registered three straight clean sheets as they are playing outstanding defense right now. They held the Spurs to just 0.44 expected goals (xG) over the weekend. The Seagulls have allowed 29 goals this season — but they are fifth-best in the English Premier League with 24.70 expected goals allowed. But they have only scored 21 times in their 23 EPL matches.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D5-L7) has lost three straight games in the English Premier League after their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa on Saturday. Manchester United (W12-D5-L4) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Southampton attack has stalled as they have only one goal in their last three matches along with just three goals in their last eight contests. Perhaps the cause for this decline was simply the Regression Gods finally visiting the Saints after the summer and then fall in the new season where their scoring numbers were exceeding their underlying numbers. Southampton has scored 27 times this season but their expected goals (xG) fall to just 21.14. The Saints average just 1.11 xG per match which is sixth-worst in the EPL. Their non-penalty kick xG is only 1.03. And in their nine road matches in league play, Southampton has an xG of 8.43 as compared to their 12 goals scores which suggest they have been overachieving from their 1.33 goals-per-game road mark. The Southampton defense has been solid — they limited a potent Aston Villa attack over the weekend to just 0.77 xG. For the season, the Saints allow 1.33 expected goals (xGA). Manchester United is in a scoring slump of their own with just three goals in their last four matches. Marcus Rashford is out-of-form — he has managed only six shots inside the box in his last seven matches. But the Red Devils’ defensive effort remains consistent. They limited Arsenal to just 0.90 xG on Saturday with the Gunners’ best scoring chance only registering a 9% chance of success. Man United has allowed 15 goals in their 10 home matches — but their xGA drops to 12.46. Yet the Red Devils generate 0.30 fewer expected goals when playing at home at Old Trafford.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton has seen 13 of their 20 EPL matches this season generate two combined goals or less. Man United has played seven straight EPL matches with no more than three combined goals scored — and four of those matches saw less than three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). THE SITUATION: Valparaiso (6-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 70-52 loss at Evansville as a 1-point underdog. Evansville (7-8) ended a three-game losing streak with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Crusaders allowed the Purple Aces to nail 60.4% of their shots from the field which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Valparaiso holds their home hosts to just 42.6% shooting — so they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Crusaders have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Valparaiso also made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was their best field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Crusaders are 10th in the Missouri Valley Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. While they score 67.9 PPG on the season with a 41.2% field goal percentage, they have averaged just 64.2 PPG along with a 38.9% field goal percentage in their last five games. Valparaiso's scoring average drops to 63.0 PPG along with a 40.8% shooting percentage in their nine road games. They have played 5 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total with a winning record at home. They also have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Crusaders have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They also have played 28 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. Evansville enjoyed their best shooting effort of the season yesterday — and it was only the second time all season where they shot better than 48.9% of their shots. The Purple Aces make only 42.0% of their shots. Evansville has also allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.5% of their shots — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at last 47% of their shots. The Purple Aces have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while this is their second game since January 17th, they have played 4 straight Unders when playing their second game in eight days. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to 62.2 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. Evansville has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Purple Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Despite both these teams overachieving with their shooting yesterday, that result still finished below the 126.5 Total. There were only 59 possessions for both teams in that game. If the tempo is similar to that again tonight, this game should finish well below the number. Valparaiso has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). THE SITUATION: Denver (11-8) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 119-109 upset loss at San Antonio as a 4-point favorite. Utah (15-4) has won and covered the point spread in eleven straight games after their 120-101 victory at home against Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINT(S): After a 1-4 start to the season, Denver has been quite good by winning ten of their next fourteen games. They went into the 4th quarter in San Antonio with a lead before collapsing in those final 12 minutes. It would have been quite an accomplishment to sweep that five-game road trip. Now the Nuggets return home for the first time since January 19th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Denver allowed the Spurs to make 54.3% of their shots from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Defensive has been the Achilles’ heel for this team under head coach Michael Malone — but they have been a top-ten unit in defensive efficiency since their 1-4 start. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six games (and six of their last eight) — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Nikola Jokic has been a double-double machine with nineteen straight games with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds. Garry Harris has stepped up with a 46.5% shooting clip from 3-point range over his last nine games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the total set in the 210s. Utah held the struggling Mavericks to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Jazz now go back on the road after playing their last six games at home. Seven of their last games during their winning streak were at home — and two of those four road games were at lowly Detroit and Cleveland. Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Jazz are also banged up with Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors missing the last two games with a concussion and back issues. Head coach Quin Snyder has received some good efforts from role players stepping up — but the challenge rises playing on the road against a perennial Western Conference playoff team.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will have revenge on their minds after losing at home to Utah by a 109-105 score as a 1.5-point home underdog on January 17th — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W9-D6-L4) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Thursday. Brighton (W3-D9-L8) last played on Wednesday when they settled for a 0-0 draw at home against Fulham.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs’ attack was toothless in that important match against Liverpool — they managed only three shots and their expected goals mark was a meager 0.11 xG. Now this team will be without Harry Kane today (confirmed with their lineup announcement at 1:15 PM ET) — he has scored or assisted in 24 of Tottenham’s 34 goals this season. As it is, the Spurs were overachieving in their goal-scoring this season with their 34 goals scored betrayed by their expected goals mark of just 28.73 xG. They go back on the road where they have scored 19 times — but their 13.09 xG is a big dropoff that is bottom-ten in the EPL. Manager Jose Mourinho plays a cautious style of play that relies on the elite ball-striking efficiency of Kane and midfielder Son Heung-min. Tottenham’s defensive efforts remain elite — they lead the EPL with the fewest Big Chances (35% or better statistical success rate) when playing on the road. Brighton is underachieving relative to their expected goals numbers. While they are in 17th place with 18 points, their 31.57 expected Points would place them in the middle of the table. This team is the opposite of the Spurs — they create plenty of scoring chances but they lack the elite offensive players who take advantage of these opportunities with skilled shots on target. They have scored only 22 goals in their 20 matches — and they have just 10 goals in their ten matches at home at AmEx Stadium. The Seagulls are tough to score on. While they have surrendered 29 goals, their expected goals allowed drops to 24.33. This team was getting mediocre play out of goalkeeper Mat Ryan who was responsible for some soft goals. Robert Sanchez has been much better since taking over midseason — and he has two straight clean sheets. Brighton ranks second in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA), non-penalty kick xGA, and Big Chances allowed when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs won the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 1st by a 2-1 score. Tottenham generated 2.00 xG in that match with Ryan rather than Sanchez the Seagulls’ keeper — but Kane accounted for 1.36 of that xG himself. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). THE SITUATION: Golden State (10-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 114-93 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Detroit (5-14) has won two of their last three games with their 107-92 upset victory against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pistons held the Lakers to just 40.9% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Detroit caught LA coasting on a long road trip — but not it is them who went on the road in the first game of a five-game west coast swing. The Pistons are due for a letdown — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win as a home underdog getting at least 6 points. Detroit is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a double-digit win — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up victory. They go back on the road where they are just 1-7 this season with an average losing margin of -6.5 PPG. The Pistons are allowing their home hosts to shoot 50.7% from the field which is translating into 119.0 PPG. Detroit is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 road games against a team with the Total set at 220 or higher. Golden State made only 38.4% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last 17 games. The Warriors have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Golden State returns home where they are 7-4 while scoring 115.2 PPG and making 46.7% of their shots — and they play much better defense at home where they limit their guests to 42.4% shooting. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games this season with the total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit may have the worst roster in the league but they play hard almost every night. But this is a point spread around 5 points — and the Warriors have taken care of business against the bottom of the league as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Golden State won in Detroit on December 29th by a 116-106 score — and the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). THE SITUATION: California (7-11) has lost three straight games with their 72-68 loss at Arizona State as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. Arizona (12-4) saw their three-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 73-64 loss to Stanford as a 9-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears made only 39.3% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. Cal did get their leading scorer back in that game against the Sun Devils with Matt Bradley scoring 26 points with 10 rebounds. The Golden Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 135 point total, Cal has then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing an Over. The Bears stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Cal scores a healthy 73.4 PPG on 47.6% shooting on the road. But their defense has been a mess playing away from home — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.4% with their opponents making 42.6% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 298th and 333rd in the nation. The Golden Bears have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Cal has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 130s. Arizona has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Wildcats have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home against a Pac-12 foe. Arizona made only 41.5% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — so they should shoot better this afternoon. But this is a tired basketball team playing their second game in three days and fourth in the last nine days. Injuries are not helping matters — they lost a rotation player with Jemarl Baker’s season-ending injury and Bennedict Mathurin played 25 minutes off the bench while scoring 10 points after suffering a right ankle sprain on Monday. Fatigue will impact the Wildcats’ effort on defense and likely lead to them fouling more. Arizona allowed the Cardinal to shoot 49.1% from the field in what was their worst defensive effort in five games. The Wildcats have played 4 straight Overs when playing their second game in three days. They stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They score 76.8 PPG at home — and in their last five games, Arizona is scoring 80.4 PPG on 48.4% shooting.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite. California has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D3-L5) enters this match off a 1-1 draw at home against Leicester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L11) has lost five straight matches in the English Premier League with their 2-1 loss at Leeds United on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees have won five of their last eight matches in EPL play with only one loss over that span. This side has stepped on the defensive end of the pitch where they are allowing just 1.20 expected goals (xGA) in those last eight matches. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has overseen this stretch despite dealing with a host of injuries since the fall. But now his starting XI is back near full strength with his big four of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, James Rodriguez, Richarlison, and Lucas Digne all healthy again. When these four have all started together in six matches this season, Everton has scored 17 goals with a 2.8 goals-per-game average. They now host a slumping Newcastle side with a manager in Steve Bruce who is sitting on a red-hot hot seat. The Magpies are allowing 1.68 xGA this season despite playing a 4-4-2 formation which basically has eight players parking the bus in the back. Over their last four matches, Newcastle is last in expected goals allowed. The Magpies are only averaging 1.03 expected goals per match as well. Their play has particularly suffered away from St. James where they are second-to-last in expected goals differential. Newcastle has lost six of their ten matches on the road. They have the second-worst xGA away from home. And they have not scored in their last 385 minutes on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Everton should have plenty of energy having taken a two-week hiatus because of a COVID outbreak earlier this month. With two matches in hand, the Toffees can make a big run up the table. Everton will also have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Newcastle, 2-1, on November 1st. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). THE SITUATION: Saint Peter’s (7-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 47-40 loss at Siena on Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Manhattan (5-4) has won three straight games in a row — all upset victories — after their 58-55 win against Niagara as a 1.5-point underdog back on January 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PEACOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Saint Peter’s made only 26.8% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage for them all season. They only scored 18 points in the first half as well — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. The Peacocks have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. They also made only 4 of their 8 free throws in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. Shooting the basketball is not the strength of head coach Shaheen Holloway’s team. But he has his group ferocious defense — Saint Peter’s ranks fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting inside the arc. The Peacocks’ also force turnovers in 22.1% of their opponent’s possessions which is 40th in the country. The Jaspers are loose with the basketball — they turn the ball over in 22.0% of their possessions, 304th in the nation. Saint Peter’s should get plenty of easy scoring chances tonight. They should play better as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home for just the fourth time all season. The Peacocks are 3-0 on their home court while holding their guests to just 36.9% shooting and only 57.0 PPG. Saint Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home when favored. Manhattan will likely be rusty having not played in two weeks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not playing for at least seven days. The Jaspers made 41.7% of their shots in that game which was the shooting effort in their last seven contests. Manhattan has won four of their last five games with two straight upset wins against Niagara precedent by an upset victory against Quinnipiac — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing their last two at home as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off upsets in two straight games as a home dog. Now they go back on the road for just the fourth time this season. In their three road games, they have made only 32.8% of their shots. The Jaspers rank just 347th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaspers have not played much of a schedule yet this season — Niagara was the best team they have played so far this season with them ranking 237th in the nation according to the metrics by Ken Pomeroy. Manhattan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Saint Peter’s ranks 164th by Pomeroy. Holloway deploys a deep bench that has ten players who average more than 10 minutes-per-game. The Peacocks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Saint Peter’s Peacocks (870) minus the points versus the Manhattan Jaspers (869). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). THE SITUATION: Weber State (7-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 77-72 loss at Southern Utah in a pick ‘em contest. Idaho (0-11) remained winless back on January 16th in their last game which ended in a 75-61 loss to Northern Colorado as an 8.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 39.4% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last eight games. Weber State can shoot the basketball (per usual) — this year, they rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.2%. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 6 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less. Over their last five games, Weber State is scoring 90.2 PPG while nailing 53.3% of their shots. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 74.8 PPG. The Wildcats have 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Weber State has also played a decisive 41 of their last 60 road games Over the Total when favored. Idaho has played 22 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home as an underdog. The Vandals had made at least 50.9% of their shots in three straight games before running into Northern Colorado who held them to 54 points on 39.6% shooting in their first meeting on January 14th before making only 42% of their shots two days later the last time they were on the court. Idaho has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. Head coach Zac Claus will likely want his team passing more after they dished out just 10 and 6 assists respectively in those last two games. The Vandals have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not assisting on more than 12 baskets in two straight games. Those two games finished Under the Total — but Idaho has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team — they have the nation’s 333rd worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number which worsens to a 334th mark in the nation when they are playing at home. Their visitors nail 44.2% of their shots from 3-point land when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Idaho has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Weber State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 76074 loss at Villanova as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Creighton (11-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday in their 74-66 win against UConn as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Pirates have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while their game with the Wildcats flew Over the 140 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Seton Hall returns home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. They are scoring 77.3 PPG at home while making 47.6% of their shots. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.9% shooting on their home court. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 145 to 149.5. Additionally, Seton Hall has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when getting the points. The Pirates have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Creighton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games are a win against a conference rival. And with their contest against the Huskies going Over the 135.5 point total, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now Creighton goes back on the road where they are 3-2 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored by up to 4 points. The Bluejays have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall is looking to avenge an 89-53 loss to Creighton on January 6th. The Bluejays nailed 59.6% of their shots in that game including making 13 of their 24 shots from downtown. But Creighton played at home in that game where they make 37.1% of their 3-pointers while ranking 7th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Yet the Bluejays make only 34.9% of their 3-pointers away from home, 109th in the nation, while dropping to 55th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Seton Hall Pirates (670) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (669). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W12-D2-L5) has won three matches in a row in the English Premier League with their 2-0 win against Chelsea on January 19th. Everton (W10-D2-L5) plays their first EPL match since January 12th when they defeated Wolverhampton on the road by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City will be without their top attacker in Jamie Vardy who is out a few weeks with a hernia injury. Vardy averages 0.76 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Foxes' recent success has coincided with the return of attacking midfielder James Maddison to the pitch — but he plays better when he can complement Vardy. Manager Brendan Rodgers will continue to lean on the outstanding play of his team on defense. They held Chelsea to just 0.69 expected goals (xG) — and they have registered two straight clean sheets in the EPL. Since December 20th, Leicester City has an expected goals allowed mark that is third-best in the EPL. Getting holding midfielder Wilfred Ndidi healthy again has been vital — the Foxes have not allowed an opponent to register even 1.0 xG since his return to the pitch. In their last six EPL matches, Leicester City has an xGA of 0.85. Everton will be rested for this match although they did play an FA Cup match on Sunday in a 3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday. But manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a group that has not been overworked. The Toffees are playing great defensively as well — they have held their last six opponents to just 1.20 xGA per match. Everton has not allowed more than one goal in eight straight EPL matches — and they have given up just five combined goals over that span. The Toffees have seen two or fewer combined goals in six of their last eight EPL contests. The offense has struggled with just 0.60 expected goals per match in their last four EPL games. They have overachieved with five goals scored from just 2.4 xG during that span. They do have forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin back after he has been out — but this remains a team that is playing more cautiously on the pitch than they were earlier in the season.

FINAL TAKE: Everton won the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 26th with a 2-0 victory. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* English Premier League Wednesday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Chelsea (W8-D5-L6) has suffered five losses in their last eight EPL matches with their 2-0 loss at Leicester City last Tuesday. Wolverhampton (W6-D4-L9) is winless in their last six EPL matches after their 3-2 loss at home to West Brom.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The dreary loss to the Foxes was the final straw for Chelsea management as they sacked manager, Frank Lampard. I expect an immediate bounce. Lampard was the golden boy in the organization as a player without big-time managerial experience. He seemed like a good fit when hired last year because he could help develop the younger players on the roster — an important consideration given the transfer ban last year. But once that transfer ban was lifted, the franchise brought-in a bunch of high-priced players that changed the expectations with this team. Lampard was finicky with his starting lineups and tactics on the pitch — and his perhaps stoic demeanor came across as arrogant. Players grew tired of his shtick — and he eventually lost the proverbial locker room. In comes new manager Thomas Tuchel who has immediate cache as the former manager of PSG and Borussia Dortmund. The German manager should be able to instantly connect with the struggling Timo Werner and Kai Havertz who have struggled in their transition to the EPL (and with who Lampard had no connection). Tuchel is more of a player’s manager with reports that he has already reached out to every member of the team. He is also expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation with Werner in the box rather than playing the wing — I love it because Werner is ultimately a poacher. The “Tuchel Bounce” is legit — his teams at Borussia Dortmund won their first 11 matches after his appointment while his PSG team won their first 14  matches once he took over. Talent is not the issue with this team — while they are in 8th place, their expected Points using the expected goals metric places them third in the EPL. The Blues have the second-best expected goals allowed mark in the league. I expect an immediate improvement with stick-in-the-mud Lampard gone. Wolverhampton is struggling with four losses in their last six matches. This group misses striker Raul Jimenez who is out with a head injury for months. The organization signed Willian Jose on loan from Real Sociedad to offer them a substitute attacker — but he has still not received his work permit. The team is also without their talented young attacking midfielder in Daniel Podence who is out with an injury. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has seemed to abandon his tight defensive formation for a more open styled to help create offense without Jimenez — but this has ruined the defensive cohesion of his team. The loss to West Brom is humiliating (as we saw yesterday in the Baggies’ 5-0 loss to Man City, Wolverhampton scoring twice should have been the canary in the coal mine to avoid that Under). The Wolves surrendered an xGA of 2.58 against toothless West Brom. Brighton registered 2.56 xG against Wolverhampton on January 2nd three EPL matches ago.

FINAL TAKE: It should be easy for Tuchel to get his team motivated to play this Wolves team that just upset Chelsea on December 12th by a 2-1 score. The Blues dominated the match in terms of expected goals — they registered 1.61 xG with Wolverhampton countering with just 0.63 xG — but the Wolves on the match in the 96th minute in a goal Neto. Revenge, Redemption — and the opportunity to Scapegoat past struggles on the departed manager — the Trinity of Motivation! 25* English Premier League Wednesday Match of the Month with Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). THE SITUATION: UConn (7-3) has lost two games in a row with their 74-66 loss at Creighton on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Butler (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset DePaul on the road last Tuesday as a 2-point underdog by a 67-53 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn lost their previous game to St. John’s on January 18th before the loss to the Bluejays — and they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two in a two to Big East opponents. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing just their second game in eight days. Head coach Dan Hurley’s team may have played their worst game of the season Saturday. They made only 36.5% of their shots which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. They also allowed Creighton to make 51.1% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in the last nine games. UConn has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in their previous two games. They return home where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — and they are limiting their guests to just 41.9% shooting from the field. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Butler did play their best game of the season against the Blue Demons — their 50.0% field goal percentage was a season-high and their 33.3% opponent’s field goal percentage was a season-best as well. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in their last two games after they upset Creighton by a 70-66 score as a 7-point underdog in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. They stay on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -8.2 PPG. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Additionally, the Bulldogs are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Butler will be looking to avenge a 72-60 loss at home to UConn on January 9th as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 when attempting to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W11-D5-L2) returns to English Premier League action after defeating Aston Villa last Wednesday by a 2-0 score. West Brom (W2-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 2-1 loss at West Ham last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season. They have ten clean sheets this season in the EPL including three straight. Manager Pep Guardiola has reeled-in his pressing system this season which has put less pressure on his backline. The Cityzens surrendered too many Big Chances (representing an expected goal percentage of 35% or better) last season — so perhaps a tweak in tactics was needed. Not having the services of his best striker, Sergio Aguero, might have played a role as well. Aguero has returned from the leg injury that had him on the shelf — but his positive COVID test keeps him unavailable for this match. Guardiola may have also foreseen the need to not press as much given the condensed schedule given the late start to the season after needing the summer to complete the 2019-20 campaign because of the global pandemic. Legs are shot for many of these players — so asking them to engage in ambitious pressing may exacerbate the fitness problem. Man City has also made some nice additions to their defense including signing Ruben Dias. Since his arrival, the Cityzens are allowing just 0.52 expected goals (xGA) in their last ten EPL games while conceding only twice. And while their attacking numbers have improved, Man City has scored only ten goals in their eight road matches in the EPL. They had played six straight road matches where they did not score more than one goal before their 3-1 win at Chelsea on January 3rd. The Cityzens have played their last three EPL matches at home. They last played on Saturday in the FA Cup when they rallied from a 1-0 hole to overwhelm Cheltenham Town, 3-1. Unfortunately for Guardiola, he had to rely on his key players late in the match rather than resting them for this league contest. West Brom is a mess on both ends of the pitch — but they are likely to continue the defensive tactics they employed in the reverse fixture between these two sides on December 15th which ended in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad. The Baggies host this rematch at the Hawthornes where they have scored just five times in their nine matches. West Brom has been blanked in three straight home matches in league play as well as five of their last seven. They are last in the EPL in expected goals from their attack. They will likely get blanked again by this stout Man City defense. The issue is how many goals will the Cityzens bag?

FINAL TAKE: Man City will be without their glue in the middle of the field in Kevin DeBruyne who is out for four weeks with a hamstring injury. DeBruyne may be the best player in the world 40 yards away from the goal — he is the glue that holds this Man City attack in place. The Cityzens have Gabriel Jesus back — but the attacker is more of a poacher who thrives in reacting to the actions of players like DeBruyne. Raheem Sterling will lead the attack but his form has not been top-notch. I suspect 2-0 is more likely of a result than 4-0 (and beyond) — and we can live with a push if the result is 3-0 (or 2-1). 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 101-90 loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9.5-point underdog. Boston (9-6) ended their three-game losing streak yesterday with their 141-103 thrashing of Cleveland at home as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago shot only 39.3% from the field against the Lakers which their lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games — and their 90 points scored was a season-low. The Bulls should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread defeat. And in their last 9 games playing with one day of rest, the Bulls have covered the point spread in all 9 games. Chicago is starting to find a rhythm under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They had averaged 121.7 PPG in their three-game winning streak. They are making 47.5% of their shots in the Donovan offense — and they rank 9th in Offensive Efficiency in the league over their last ten games. They will be without Wendell Carter who is doubtful with a thigh injury while Otto Porter may get the night off for rest. But they will have Zach LaVine who is thriving under Donovan’s system by scoring 26.8 PPG — and second-year pro Coby White is developing into a nice compliment. There is a good vibe with this team who is becoming competitive every night. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Boston made 55.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games — and the 40% field goal percentage they limited the Cavaliers to was tied for a season-low for them so far this season. Yet the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. This Boston team has been uninspiring this season — they rank just 17th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They lost an important piece in the offseason with Gordon Hayward signing with Charlotte. They added Tristan Thompson — but he has been a disappointment and may be past his prime. Rookie Payton Pritchard has been a nice surprise to how quickly he has acclimated to the NBA — but he is out with a knee injury. Romeo Langford is also questionable with a knee. Head coach Brad Stevens does expect Jayson Tatum to return to the court after COVID quarantine — and who knows if he will have rust. But Stevens is using his return to give Kemba Walker the night off — and he is a vital piece to the equation in their Big Three since his 3-point shooting makes things easier for Tatum and Jaylon Brown. The Celtics go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in expected high-scoring games with the total set at 220 or higher — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Over/Under at 220 or higher. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. While Mahomes has said it feels better, this is an injury that needs a few weeks to heal — and numbing drugs can only do so much. Mahomes will not be at 100% — and his mobility will be limited. As it is, Kansas City has transformed into more of a ball-control offense in the second half of the season. In Mahomes’ last five starts (which excludes Week 17) since the Chiefs’ 35-31 win against Las Vegas, they are scoring only 25.5 PPG while not scoring more than 33 points during that stretch. Head coach Andy Reid is letting the clock burn when Mahomes is on the field in what appears to me to be an attempt to keep his defense fresh. This has helped the defense put up better numbers in the second half of the season. Kansas City has held these last six opponents (excluding the Chargers in Week 17 since Mahomes did not play) to 345.7 Yards-Per-Game with five of those opponents not gaining more than 367 yards. While not elite numbers, this approach is leading to lower-scoring games. Cleveland managed only 308 total yards last week against the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills score 30.3 PPG — but Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 29 PPG. And while the Chiefs gained 438 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tellingly, Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, there is the issue of the sputtering KC offense in the Red Zone. Since Week 12, the Chiefs possess just the 26th most effective Red Zone offense in scoring touchdowns. This is not a good sign when facing this Bills’ defense that has had the best Red Zone defense since Week 12. These two teams played on October 19th with Kansas City winning by a 26-17 score. Despite the final result, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is likely to consider the defensive game plan a success. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier did not blitz at all in that game. The Bills’ begged Mahomes to hand off the football — and he did 46 times which resulted in 245 rushing yards. Yet KC scored a field goal below their season average. Given their improved Red Zone defense since that game, McDermott is likely to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off again while giving him the short passing game but not letting him burn the defense from the mismatches that ensue from using linebackers as pass rushers. Other defenses began copying this defensive approach which has also played a role in Kansas City’s declining offensive numbers in the second half of the season. This Buffalo defense will healthier in this rematch with linebacker Matt Milano playing in this game amongst others. Getting back to full strength helped the Bills’ defense rank sixth in the NFL since Week Seven using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Buffalo held the Ravens last week to just 340 yards. Yet Buffalo managed only 220 yards on their own while benefiting from their 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Bills’ first 20 plays from scrimmage were pass plays for Josh Allen — and that 21st play was a broken pass play that Allen then rushed for positive yardage. Buffalo runs the ball only 30% of the time in their offensive plays in the first half. I expect this playscript to change in this game against the suspect Chiefs’ run defense that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL using DVOA. The Bills’ attention to run the ball a bit more will also help them burn time off the clock to limit the offensive possessions Mahomes will enjoy. The Under is 9-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and Kansas City has played 4 of the last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). THE SITUATION: CS-Northridge (5-5) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 105-58 loss home to the Gauchos yesterday as a 9.5-point underdog. UC-Santa Barbara (8-3) has won five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MATADORS PLUS THE POINTS: I almost pulled the trigger on CS-Northridge yesterday but could not get confirmation on the status of their leading scorer, T.J. Starks, who is listed as questionable after not playing in their previous game at CS-Fullerton which ended in a 85-77 loss last Sunday. Thankfully, we avoided that train wreck as the Matadors (not Mustangs, Frank) allowed UC-Santa Barbara to make 60.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season. CS-Northridge also only made 36.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. But the silver lining is that Starks returned to action and scored 29 points. The Texas A&M transfer just needs help tonight — and look for head coach Mike Gottfried to coax a much better effort from his team. The Matadors have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a home loss to a Big West opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Matadors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. CS-Northridge has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. UC-Santa Barbara enjoyed their best shooting night of the season with that 60.9% clip. And by holding the Matadors to 36.7% shooting, that was the Gauchos’ second-best defensive effort in their last nine games. But UC-Santa Barbara has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Gauchos have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 95 points in their last game. UC-Santa Barbara has still failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road (with last night being the exception) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when laying 9.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: CS-Northridge has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big West Underdog of the Month with the CS-Northridge Matadors (756) plus the points versus the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (755). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W8-D2-L6) has lost three matches in a row after their 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L9) has also lost three in a row after their 3-0 loss at Arsenal on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans have endured a difficult schedule as of late with matches against Liverpool and Manchester United along with their most recent match against Man City. They also had to play Man City on the road after not having played since New Year’s Day given COVID cancellations so rust was an issue. Yet they stayed competitive with the Cityzens with that match scoreless until the 79th minute. Aston Villa had been on a five-match unbeaten streak with three victories before this recent stretch. The Villans are a dynamic attacking team that averages 15.6 shots-per-match along with 1.81 non-penalty kick Big Chances per match and 1.81 non-penalty kick expected goals (xG) per contest. Aston Villa is fifth in the EPL in xG. They are also underperforming at home in Villa Park this season. While they have 10 points from their W3-D1-L3 mark at home, their expected points (xPTS) using expected goals rise to 13.67. Newcastle is a mess that is winless in their last nine matches. Manager Steve Bruce moved away from his uber-conservative 5-4-1 system to a 4-4-2 against Arsenal on Monday to generate more offense — but they only managed four shots and 0.19 xG against the Gunners. The Magpies have been blanked in six of their last seven matches across all competitions (and four of their last five in the EPL). And while the five defensive backs are supposed to stymie opposing attacks, Newcastle still has the fifth worse expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league — and the 1.90 xGA they surrender on the road is the third-highest mark in the EPL. Yet playing with one less defender last week against the middling Arsenal attack, the Magpies have an xGA of 2.41 while allowing 20 shots and those three goals. Aston Villa has thrived in generating pressure in deep-lying opponents like Newcastle. In home matches against similar defensive schemes against Sheffield United, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, the Villans generated 17, 29, and 22 shots. And in home matches against quality opponents Southampton and Liverpool, Aston Villa had 18 and 19 shots — and they scored seven goals against the reigning EPL champs in Liverpool. The Magpies allow 15.3 shots-per-match which is the second-most in the EPL. They have allowed 23 shots against Tottenham, 21 shots against Man United, 28 shots against Leeds United, and 20 shots on Monday against Arsenal.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this match. The Villans have won four of their last six EPL matches and six of their last eight matches across all competitions by at least three goals — so if they win this match, it will likely be by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). THE SITUATION: Eastern Washington (3-6) has lost two games in a row after their 78-76 upset loss at Northern Colorado on Thursday as a 2.5-point favorite. Northern Colorado (8-6) has won three games in a row after that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Washington should avenge that upset loss this afternoon. The Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road playing their second game in three days. This will be an ornery group after suffering two straight upset losses after getting upset against Southern Utah last Saturday by a 99-94 score as a 5-point favorite. The Eagles are the reigning Big Sky champions who have two of the best players in the conference in Kim Aiken and preseason conference MVP Jacob Davison. This team embraced a very challenging non-conference schedule to begin the season with 3-point losses to Arizona and Washington State along with a 5-point loss to Saint Mary’s. But this team needs a conference win now. They allowed the Bears to make 46% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of the season — after allowing Southern Utah to make 56.1% of their shots last Saturday — so a better defensive effort is likely. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row to Big Sky rivals. Eastern Washington has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Northern Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after upsetting a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 after an upset win at home. And while the Bears have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They host this game again but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Northern Colorado has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: Eastern Washington has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when motivated by same-season revenge. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Washington Eagles (633) minus the points versus Northern Colorado Bears (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (8-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 121-99 loss at Golden State as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (7-7) ended their three-game losing streak on Wednesday in their 124-112 victory at Indiana as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio may be coming off their worst game of the season. They shot only 37.2% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage of the year. They also allowed the Warriors to nail 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Spurs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The Spurs have played four of their seven losses within 7 points — they are playing close games in their defeats. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Dallas made 52.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was not only their best shooting effort of the season but the first time all year where they made at least 50% of their shots. They also held the Pacers to just 44.6% of their shots in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by double-digits. Dallas does have Kristaps Porzingis back on the court after he was out to begin the season — he scored 27 points while adding 12 rebounds on Wednesday. But head coach Rick Carlisle is still dealing with a depleted roster given COVID protocols. The team will once again be without Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell tonight as they remain in quarantine. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). THE SITUATION: Troy (6-7) has lost three games in a row with their 63-56 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 71-68 loss a Georgia State as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans made 48.9% of their shots against the Eagles which was much higher than the 37.7% shooting percentage they are saddled with in their ten road games. They are scoring only 56.8 PPG on the road. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Their game with Georgia Southern still finished Under the 128.5 point total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. The Trojans are playing better on defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.3% shooting which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 35 of their last 52 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Troy has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Coastal Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Chanticleers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have still won five of their last seven games, Coastal Carolina has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. This is a team that was playing at a faster pace in their soft non-conference schedule — six of their first eight games saw at least 75 possessions for both teams. The Chanticleers have not seen more than 72 possessions for both teams in their last four games. They started Sun Belt Conference play in their last five games — they are scoring 74.4 PPG with a 41.8% shooting percentage which is a big dropoff from their 87.1 PPG scoring average along with a 49.2% shooting percentage overall which includes those seven non-conference games. Additionally, Coastal Carolina has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-0-1 in the Chanticleers’ last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). THE SITUATION: UCLA (11-2) has won six games in a row with their 81-76 win against Washington on Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. California (7-8) has won two of their last three games with their 72-63 win at Utah as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins made only 41.4% of their shots against the Huskies in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Mick Cronin has adapted his talent at UCLA to construct this team to be quite different than the grinding-defensive units he had at Cincinnati. This Bruins’ team ranks 10th in the nation adjusted offensive efficiency. They crash the offensive glass still by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots (46th in the nation). They are also making 38.6% of their 3-pointers which is 29th in the country — and that mark has improved to a 44.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Bears struggle to defend the perimeter — they are allowing their opponents to make 40.4% of their 3-pointers, 334th in the nation. Yet Cronin’s team ranks 119th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency after allowing Washington to make 51.7% of their shots. UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival. Cronin lost one of his best players in Chris Smith to a season-ending injury — but he still has five other players averaging double-digits per game. The Bruins are scoring 79.8 PPG in their last five games on 47.1% shooting from the field. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — but they are allowing 79.8 PPG. UCLA has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Bruins have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. California has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a conference opponent — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory against a Pac-12 foe. The Golden Bears are playing with Matt Bradley — but head coach Mark Fox’s team has found an offensive rhythm without him. Not only have they won two of their last three games after he suffered his ankle injury but they scored 50 points in the second half in their upset victory against the Utes. Cal also held Utah to just 41.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet the Golden Bears have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.6% of their shots for a 74.8 PPG scoring mark — and their Pac-12 opponents are making 48.6% of their shots against them. Cal ranks 10th in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. They return home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Golden Bears have also played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on December 6th with the Bruins winning at home by a 76-56 score as a 9-point favorite. California has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W4-D4-L9) has lost two straight games after their 1-0 loss at West Ham on Saturday. Liverpool (W9-D7-L2) is winless in their last four matches in the English Premier League after their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liverpool offensive attack has stalled. They have not scored in their last three league matches — and they have scored just once in their last four EPL matches. They have a mere 6.36 expected goals (xG) in their last four matches. What is going on? Two things. First, manager Jurgen Klopp has his team playing less aggressively in the press since the injury to center back Virgil Van Dijk. The Reds have a strong expected goals allowed mark of 1.10 since Van Dijk’s injury. Liverpool has allowed only three goals in their last six matches with three clean sheets — so Klopp’s adjustment has been effective in tightening things up for them after experiencing some vulnerabilities in the back. But it has taken a toll on the potency of their attack. Second, the Reds’ attackers are not in form. Mo Salah is in a slump. He is averaging only 0.36 non-penalty kick expected goals per match this season — and he has not registered even one shot inside the six-yard box. It has been a very busy schedule for these players with the late start of the season — fatigue is an issue. And don’t discount the possibility that Salah’s positive COVID test did not take a toll on his health and stamina. COVID clearly had a negative impact on the Cleveland Brown’s Myles Garrett who saw his elite play decline when he turned to action. Sadio Mane has not been in his top form either while Roberto Firmino has been in decline for over a calendar year. In their last four matches, they are averaging 1.34 xG per match which is well below the 2.07 xG they averaged in their first 14 games. The slide has been taking place before the festive schedule as well. In their last nine EPL matches, the Reds are averaging 1.56 xG per 95 minutes which is a sharp decline from the 2.53 xG they had before that. Burnley has played four straight matches with 1-0 final results. The Clarets have seen no more than two combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Burnley plays a compact defensive system that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate. They have allowed only five goals in their last eight matches across all competitions including limiting the powerful Man United attack to just 1.41 xG. In their last seven league matches since their embarrassing 5-0 loss at Man City, the Clarets have not allowed more than one goal in a match while registering three clean sheets. But this focus on defense makes the Burnley attack toothless. The Clarets have scored only nine times this season which is the fewest in the EPL — and their 13.88 xG is second-to-last. They have been blanked in their last two matches after registering a mere 0.44 xG against West Ham on Saturday.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool does get center back Joel Matip back for this match — and that will allow Klopp to move Jordan Henderson back to the middle field position where he is one of the best holding midfielders in the world. This development makes the Reds defensive cohesion even better. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw when they played at Anfield last year when the Liverpool attack was in better form. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W11-D4-L3) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on Sunday. Fulham (W2-D6-L9) suffered their first loss in six English Premier League matches on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cottagers have been settling from several draws as of late — they are now winless in their last seven EPL matches. This team is playing more cautiously as of late with an increased emphasis on defense under manager Scott Parker. However, this has taken away any bite they had in their attack. Fulham has mustered only 1.18 expected goals (xG) since their 2-0 loss to Manchester City on December 5th — and they have scored only three goals in those last seven EPL contests. The Cottagers are second-to-last in non-penalty kick xG. Fulham has been pretty stingy at home as of late where they have allowed only two goals hosting Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton, and Chelsea. But that defensive focus has come at a cost as the Cottagers have blanked in three straight home contests. Man United has rediscovered their defensive cohesion they enjoyed in the second half of last season when they went on a great defensive run. The Red Devils have registered three straight clean sheets across all competitions — and they have four clean sheets in their last six contests in all competitions. This team has been in their best form when away from Old Trafford. They have won seven of their nine league matches in league play with two draws against top-flight sides Liverpool and Leicester City being the two exceptions. They are also scoring goals in bunches with them registering at least three goals in six of their nine league matches away from home. I would certainly consider these results as due for some regression — but they have now been doing this for a full calendar year away from home. In their last 16 EPL road matches, Man United is averaging 1.77 xG while holding their home hosts to 1.23 expected goals allowed (xGA).

FINAL TAKE: Paul Pogba seems in better spirits with his team as of late — and when he is contributing, the Red Devils starting XI becomes quite powerful. Man United tends to overwhelm inferior opponents — they have scored 25 goals in their last eight league matches against promoted sides. Their vulnerability is against counter-attacking sides — but the Cottagers are not very aggressive in taking those chances (and they do not feature great attacking talent). The Red Devils have won their last four matches at Fulham with 12 goals scored and just one conceded. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-4) looks to rebound from their 78-61 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 9-point underdog. Ball State (6-5) has won their last two games after their 78-58 win against Northern Illinois on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Bobcats to make 57.4% of their shots last week which was their worst defensive mark of the season. The RedHawks made only 40.4% of their shots as well which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last three contests. Now having lost three of their last four games, this is a crucial game for head coach Jack Owens who is running out of time in his fourth year coaching the program. He has seen his team cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss to a Mid-American Conference rival. And while Miami has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Returning home will help where the RedHawks are 4-1 this season. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. This team leads the MAC in protecting their defensive glass as opponents only rebound 25.0% of their missed shots. The Redhawks also force turnovers in 21.1% of their conference opponent’s possessions which is also best in the MAC. The Cardinals can struggle in this area as they are turning the ball over in 18.6% of their possessions, 6th conference play. Ball State held the Huskies to just a 34.9% shooting mark on Saturday which was their best defensive performance of the season. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while Ball State has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Now this goes back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this to be a close game with the RedHawks in a position to win. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.

FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-4) takes the court again for the first time since January 11th when they were upset at Washington by a 128-107 score as a 6-point favorite. Memphis (6-6) comes off a 106-104 win against Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has not played in the last seven days because of the COVID outbreak in the Wizards’ organization which forced them to quarantine after exposure to their players in that game. This Suns team should be anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouth of what was probably their worst game of the season. They allowed Washington to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort so far in this campaign. They only made 44.8% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Yet Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by at least 20 points as a road favorite. The Suns went from a talented upstart that went 8-0 in the bubble this summer to a legitimate threat in the Western Conference with the veteran Chris Paul guiding the emerging stars in Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and DeAndre Ayton. Second-year head coach Monty Williams is also getting valuable contributions from his bench from players like Cameron Johnson. Phoenix ranks sixth in the NBA in their net efficiency rating. They have scored at least 105 points in nine straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road. Phoenix has also coved the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not playing more than three games in the last ten days. Memphis has won four straight games with their victory against the 76ers. They go Ja Morant in that game with their second-year superstar scoring 17 points with six assists. The Grizzlies did get out-rebounded by 15 rebounds in that game. This team misses Jaren Jackson and Justise Winslow who are both out with injuries — and they will be without Jonas Valuncianas for this game who is out due to COVID quarantining protocols. Ayton may be poised for a big night against what is left of the Memphis frontcourt. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after being outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Memphis has a great head coach in Taylor Jenkins who gets the most out of his talent. But the problem Jenkins faces is when his group goes against the top rosters in the league where the consistent effort from his players is not enough — and that is made even worse with all the players out for this one. The Grizzlies are playing their fourth game in ten days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing no more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis is only 2-5 at home this season with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games. And while the Grizzlies launch 31 shots from 3-point land per game, the Suns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who attempt at least 18 shots from 3-point land per game.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix is missing some bench pieces for this one with Dario Saric and Jalen Smith out still because of quarantine protocols — but they have their starting five intact. The Suns have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. 25* NBA TNT Game of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) looks to rebound from a listless 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace last Thursday. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners have been playing better as of late with three straight wins before their draw with the Eagles. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with four victories and four clean sheets — and they have a low expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.24 in those five matches. This recent stretch all started at home last month with a huge 3-1 victory over Chelsea in English Premier League action. Manager Mikel Arteta was starting to hear whispers of him being on the hot seat — and he responded by turning to some youngsters to instill some energy and enthusiasm into the starting XI. Kieran Tierney, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Bukayo Saka have all offered breaths of fresh air — although Tierney did not play last week with a calf injury. Frankly, Arsenal was flat and very disappointing in their energy and effort on Thursday. That performance certainly got Arteta’s attention — it needs to be addressed in this contest. The good news is that Tierney’s calf has improved and he should be on the pitch for this game. The last time the Gunners did not win a match was on December 19th when they lost to Everton by a 2-1 score — and it was after that match that Arteta coaxed his best effort of the season from his team in that upset win against Chelsea. This remains a team that has scored eight goals in their last three EPL matches. Newcastle is winless in their last eight matches in all competitions with six losses. In their loss to Sheffield United, they allowed one of the worst attacks in the league to generate 2.13 expected goals (xG). Manager Steve Bruce is firmly on the hot seat — and he may have lost the support of his players. He continues to play five defenders in an uninspired system that is not even generating better defensive play. The Magpies are allowing 1.62 xGA this season which is the sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed more than one goal in three of their last six matches. It is even worse on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to achieve 1.93 xG — and they have surrendered eight goals in their last three road matches in the EPL. They have also allowed multiple goals in three of their last five road contests. Yet playing five defenders has resulted in the Magpies attack being almost non-existent. Over their last five matches, Newcastle is producing only 0.66 non-penalty kick expected goals — and they have not scored a goal from open play in that span. The Magpies have also been shutout in five of their last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played nine days ago on January 9th in the FA Cup with Arsenal winning by a 2-0 score. The Gunners needed extra time to score those two goals — so they did not walk away from that match brimming with confidence. I am very high on Arteta as a tactician — I expect him to make some adjustments to create earlier scoring chances. If (and when) Arsenal scores earlier in this match, Bruce will have to have his team open up more — and those conditions should lead to the Gunners winning comfortably. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Gaining 507 yards last week against the Football Team was impressive since they have a very good defense — and that effort was encouraging regarding how Brady will handle the pass rush this week since Washington is top-ten in pressure rate. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason. The team trends suggest the Bucs will score their share of points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Buccaneers have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog including 6 straight Overs when not getting more than 3 points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight when laying the points. The Saints are going to score their share of points in this game — they average 30.4 PPG at home. Drew Brees is also averaging 35.3 PPG in his last three games while averaging 438.3 YPG and he is getting his weapons like Michael Thomas back for the playoff run. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points. The Saints have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in New Orleans. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The weather is going to be cold with a decent chance of flurries in this game. To quote Dan Marino: “if it’s snowing’, I’m throwin’!” I do not worry about playing Overs in snowy conditions if the supporting evidence points strongly to the Over — which is the case for this situation. The Over is 11-2-1 in the Bills’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. Buffalo generated 395 yards of offense in that game while averaging 7.09 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. Buffalo has scored at least 26 points in nine straight games while eclipsing 30 points in six of those contests. The Bills have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. But Buffalo surrendered 309 passing yards en route to the Colts’ 472 total yards in that game. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has allowed 50 combined points in their last two games while giving up at least 24 points nine times this season. Last week’s game just made it Over the 50.5 point Total — and the Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has played three straight Unders after last week’s game finished below the 53.5 total — but they have played 24 of their last 41 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. The Ravens have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games on the road. Baltimore had scored at least 27 points in five straight games before only reaching 20 points last week in what turned out to be a game where both teams wanted to control the clock. And while the Ravens’ defense has only surrendered 18.6 PPG this season, they have given up at least 28 points five times. Buffalo averages 290 passing YPG — and Baltimore has played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. The Ravens score 28.2 PPG on the road — and while they average 194 rushing YPG, the Bills have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who average at least 170 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 playoff games when they were the underdog. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is a heavyweight contest — and both these teams will keep fighting to win which should push the final score Over the Total. 25* NFL Saturday Night Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four after their 86-71 loss at Iowa as an 11.5-point underdog back last Sunday. Michigan (11-0) remained undefeated on Tuesday with their 77-54 thrashing of Wisconsin at home in Ann Arbor as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Badgers on Tuesday but the Wolverines were on fire with a 51.6% field goal percentage in that game. Michigan also held Wisconsin to just a 30.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season. I thought the Wolverines were underrated to begin the season — and I continue to think that second-year head coach Juwan Howard is underappreciated. The Michigan alum is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster — just wait for when the five-star recruits start coming to Ann Arbor next fall. But this is not the most talented group of players in the Big Ten (or the State of Michigan). They have benefited from a soft early schedule where their 82-57 victory against these Golden Gophers at Crisler Arena on January 6th was their highest-profile victory before their win against the Badgers. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in five straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Now Michigan goes on the road for just the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Wolverines went to the free-throw line only four times on Tuesday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not attempting more than seven free throws in their last game. Minnesota is 30th in the nation with a free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 41.5%. They average 26 free throw attempts per game — and Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams who average at least 25 free throws per game. The Golden Gophers should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a point spread loss. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Minnesota returns home where they are 10-0 with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. Not only do the Gophers score 85.5 PPG on their home court but they hold their guests to just a 37.8% field goal percentage — so expect the Wolverines to struggle to make baskets with the unique sightlines at Williams Arena. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home with the Total set in the 145.5 to 149.5 point range. The Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games getting the points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan is outscoring their opponents by +16.2 PPG — but Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8 PPG. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when avenging a loss where they gave up at least 75 points. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (645) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-1) has won two games in a row with their 62-58 win against Southern Mississippi as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Charlotte (5-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 75-72 loss to Belmont Abbey in a non-boarded game on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, UAB has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total with that game skimming Under 131 total. The Blazers are limiting their opponents to just a 41.1% effective field goal percentage which is third-best in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 57.0 PPG this season on 36.7% shooting from the field. Now UAB goes on the road for just the second time this season. They made only 39.3% of their shots against Southern Miss. The Blazers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 37 of their last 56 road games Under the Total as a favorite of 6 points or less — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite overall. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The 49ers stay at home where they are scoring 67.9 PPG on just 44.4% shooting. Charlotte has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Charlotte has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 straight games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-45 upset loss to Wofford last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Samford (5-5) has lost two games in a row after their 73-68 loss at UT-Chattanooga as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 6th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs love to push the pace — they rank 9th in the nation with an adjusted tempo rate that produces 74.1 average possessions per game. The 71 possessions in their last game against the Moccasins are the lowest for them in any game all season. Four of their ten games have seen at least 80 possessions for both teams. Samford has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 18 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games . They are scoring 84.9 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots — and they are allowing their opponents to score 77.7 PPG. They return home where they are making 51.8% of their shots en route to scoring 97.5 PPG. They are allowing their guests to score 76.5 PPG. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They also have played 26 of their last 35 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. UNC-Greensboro has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival. They made only 34.5% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last nine games. They also held Wofford to just a 29.6% field goal percentage which was by far their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. Not only has the Spartans played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 79.1 PPG while allowing their opponents to score 71.8 PPG. UNC-Greensboro is middle of the pack in averaging 71 possessions per game — but they are willing to engage with teams that like to play faster. The Spartans have played 8 straight games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UNC-Greensboro has also played 6 straight road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when laying 6.5 to 9 points.

FINAL TAKE: Samford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set in the 150s. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Arsenal (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D2-L8) has won three straight matches in English Premier League action with their 4-0 win at West Brom on January 2nd. Crystal Palace (W6-D4-L7) snapped a five-game winless streak in the EPL on January 2nd with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Gunners’ manager Mikel Arteta found himself firmly on the hot seat last month with this Big Six EPL power underachieving relative to the sky-high expectations for this franchise. Yet everything turned around starting with a surprise 3-1 upset victory at home in the Emirates against Chelsea on Boxing Day on December 26th. Arsenal dominated the pitch against a good Blues team. The Gunners followed that up with a solid victory against Brighton and Hove Albion before their four-goal victory against West Brom. Arsenal last played on Saturday when they advanced in the FA Cup with a quality 2-0 victory against Newcastle United — that victory gave them four-straight wins across all competitions.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). THE SITUATION: Boise State (10-1) has won ten games in a row with their 83-60 win at Wyoming on Monday as a 7-point favorite. Wyoming (7-3) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Broncos’ held the Cowboys to just a 38.9% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, Boise State has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Broncos lead the Mountain West Conference by scoring 81.2 PPG. They have scored at least 80 points in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. In their last three games, Boise State is scoring 86.8 PPG while making 48.4% of their shots. They are also scoring 82.3 PPG in their six games away from home. Wyoming has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Their 38.9% shooting percentage was their second-lowest mark all season. Wyoming has allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has translated into 80.8 PPG. They stay at home for this rematch where they are making 46.1% of their shots to average 81.7 PPG. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 8 home games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). THE SITUATION: Georgia (7-3) has their last three games after falling to Arkansas on Saturday by a 99-69 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Auburn (6-6) has lost four games in a row with their 94-90 loss against Alabama on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Bulldogs allowed the Razorbacks to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Head coach Mike Crean was not happy with the effort of his team in that 30-point loss — so expect a more spirited effort with his team looking to win their first SEC game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 30 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Georgia returns home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after losing at least three games in a row. They are 7-1 in Athens this season with an average winning margin of +13.1 net PPG. Crean’s team should play much better on defense as they limit their guests to just 40.7% shooting and 67.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia should score plenty of easy baskets inside against the Tigers — they are 61st in the nation with a 53.9% shooting percentage inside the arc. Auburn allows their opponents to make 52.3% of their 2-pointers which is 242nd in the country. The Bulldogs also pull down 35.6% of their missed shots which is 20th in the nation. The Tigers have been bet into a small favorite as I write this — the likely logic is that their getting freshman Sharife Cooper eligible is a game-changer for this team. The 6’1 guard scored 26 points while adding 9 assists against the Crimson Tide. Yet the laptops still project the Bulldogs to win this game even with Cooper back in the mix. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have failed to cover the point spewed in 6 straight games after allowing at least 85 points. Auburn goes back on the road where they are 2-4 while making only 39.8% of their shots. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games away from home with the Total set in the 155 to 159.5 point range. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog including 6 of their last 8 games at home as a dog. The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Month with the Georgia Bulldogs (682) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (681). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We had the Buckeyes in their revenge opportunity defeat a Tigers team that beat them in last year’s Semifinals by a 29-23 score. I loved Ohio State in that situation as an underdog — but I hate this spot for them now. Head coach Ryan Day and his team just triumphed against their proverbial white whale — but the job is not done. I worry about a big emotional letdown for this team. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. The continued COVID situation for Ohio State adds a very troubling complication for this team. Remember, it was the surprise announcement of a slew of Buckeyes’ players dealing with COVID that contributed to their sluggish effort in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields struggled without his top weapons in that game — and he may be slowed in this game with the ribs injury he suffered against Clemson. If he is not 100%, the Buckeyes are in trouble. I was unwilling to make a call on the Total for this game without knowing if there is a position group that will not be available to play in this game — if an offensive position group is out, then that helps the Under; if a defensive position group is out, then it helps the Over. Either way, if Ohio State goes into this game undermanned, it could be devastating. Even if everyone takes the field on Monday, the practice and preparation for this team have been less than ideal. Alabama will be primed and ready for this game. Head coach Nick Saban’s team comes into this contest having not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, the Tide have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in a dominant 23 of their last 28 games after winning but not covering the point spread in their last two games. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on a neutral field favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the SEC. Alabama has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Big Ten foes. 25* CFB National Championship *A-List* Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide flexed their muscles on defense against the Fighting Irish offense by limiting them to 375 yards and just the two scores. Alabama has not only then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while that game flew Under the 65.5 point Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under. The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable against explosive offenses — Florida generated 462 yards against the Bama defense (including 408 in the air) while Ole Miss put up 268 rushing yards and another 379 passing yards for 647 total yards of offense against a Nick Saban-defense. There is no question that Ryan Day and his offensive coaching staff have dissected the Lane Kiffin game plan he installed for his Rebels’ offense in that game. Alabama has won the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 40 games on the road Over the Total after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight contests. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. The Over is 22-9-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 33 games played on a neutral field — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on a neutral field as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Ohio State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while they generated 639 yards against the Clemson defense — the Over is then 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes have gained at least 491 yards in all seven of their games this season — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Yes, this is a biggggg number in the mid-70s. But Ohio State has scored at least 38 points in six of their seven games with their COVID-impacted Big Ten Championship Game against a Northwestern team slowing the game down being the exception. Notre Dame deployed a similar strategy in “holding” Alabama to their lowest scoring total of the season — but the Tide has scored at least 41 points in their other ten games. If both teams hit those floors, the Over comes in. Both of these teams are going to try to “out-offense” the other in what should be a very competitive contest. Tellingly, Saban’s teams have played 13 of their last 19 January Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes all 4 National Championship Games. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Under is also a decisive 39-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 60 games after a point spread win. That game with the Browns finished Over the 44.5 point Total — but the Steelers have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has thrown the ball 44 and 49 times in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 40 times in two straight games. The Steelers return home where they have been very tough to score on — they are holding their visitors to 18.6 PPG along with 295.1 YPG. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games when favored. And in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Pittsburgh has played 17 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The COVID outbreak will certainly not make things easier for the Cleveland offense. While having offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling plays is a fine alternative, head coach Kevin Stefanski was hired for the job for this organization in part because of his acumen at calling plays. Having Stefanski away from the team given COVID protocols is far from ideal. Losing Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio to COVID also hurts this Browns’ offense. Tackle Jack Conklin is also questionable with an unrelated illness. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has averaged only 165.0 passing YPG in his three starts in Pittsburgh with a low 70.6 Passer Rating while getting sacked 11 times — he needs all the help he can get. The Cleveland defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with 338.3 YPG. The Browns' strategy will be to lean heavily on their ground game and out-physical their divisional rival. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by a field goal or less. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has also played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less in their last contest. This Titans’ offense is a juggernaut deploying the running game behind Derrick Henry that also sets up the play-action pass for Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee scores 30.7 PPG — and they are scoring 32.9 PPG at home. They are also scoring 33.7 PPG in their last three games. They generated 492 yards last week against the Titans — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Tennessee has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. But the Titans defense cannot generate a pass rush — they gave up 457 yards to the Texans last week. Tennessee has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after giving up 30 points in their last contest. Green Bay put up 40 points against them in their previous game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. The Titans give up 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. They return home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. After playing three straight Overs, the Ravens have played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 3 points — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and in their last 5 games when playing at home as a dog, all 5 games finished Over the Total. I think both teams score above 25 points in this game which should push the final score at least into the mid-50s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite. Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win at home over an AFC North foe. This is a bit contrarian play with the number dropping into the 42 range. Los Angeles has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. Granted, the Rams are averaging only 15.7 PPG in their last three games — and head coach Sean McVay has not committed to a starting quarterback with Jared Goff getting screws in his throwing hand and John Wolford having no experience in the playoffs. But the offense is getting healthier around these quarterbacks with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and wide receiver Cooper Krupp expected back on the field for this one and rookie running back Cam Akers established their lead running back. McVay seems to like Wolford — he can make some throws that Goff is not great at executing. The Rams are scoring 25.8 PPG on the road — and their pass attack is predicated on their play-action from their rushing attack being credible which should be the case in this game. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Rams have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as a dog. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow win by a field goal or less. The Seahawks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries on defense including Jamal Adams dealing with a shoulder. Their win over the 49ers did finish Over the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs. These teams did just play to a 20-9 score two weeks ago — and their first meeting this season finished Under the Total with the Rams’ 23-16 win. I think this one goes Over — with both teams scoring at least 20 points. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-5) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 102-94 upset win at Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog. New Orleans (4-4) has lost two in a row with their 111-110 upset loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as an 8-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans nailed 49.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was their second-best mark all season. But they also allowed the Thunder to make 46.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. First-year head coach Stan Van Gundy was livid with the effort of his team that allowed 27 fast break points. Expect a better effort on defense on getting back to the other end of the court tonight after this team has been upset twice in a row after a narrow 2-point loss to Indiana before their setback to OKC. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses at home. The Pelicans have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. They also have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Van Gundy has made an immediate impact on the defensive improvement of this team — they are not fouling as much, they are crashing the defensive glass, and they are working harder in defending the perimeter. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season on Wednesday with them holding the Hawks to just 37.5% shooting. Third-year head coach James Borrego hopes that effort will carry over tonight. The Hornets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Despite the win, Charlotte is struggling to score baskets. They are making only 42.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in only 105.2 PPG. The Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days.

FINAL TAKE: The Hornets have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (7-2) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 71-59 upset loss at home to Texas State as a 2.5-point favorite. Little Rock (6-3) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 75-62 win against UT-Arlington on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINT(S): Lafayette might have played their worst game of the season last Saturday. They made only 34.6% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed the Bobcats to hit 60% of their baskets which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing their last opponent to shoot at least 60% from the field. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not shoot better than 38% while allowing their opponent to nail at least 60% of their shots. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after getting upset by double-digits as a home favorite. They stay at home where they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. They hold their opponents to just 40.8% shooting which is resulting in 68.6 PPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games at home with the Total set in the 150s. Lafayette does a good job of forcing turnovers — their opponents are coughing it up in 20.6% of their possessions which is 81st in the nation. This is a significant area of concern for the Trojans — they are 325th in the nation by turning the ball over in 24.7% of their possessions. Little Rock exposed a vulnerable Mavericks’ defense in their two-game swing last week. They made a whopping 70% of their shots against UT-Arlington in the opener before making 56.1% of their shots on Saturday in what was their best two shooting efforts of the season. And by holding the Mavericks to just 31.8% shooting, the Trojans played their best defensive game of the season. But the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two straight games in a row at home. And while Little Rock has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after covering their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with five or six days of rest. They go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season while allowing their opponents to make 46.1% of their shots which is resulting in 77.0 PPG. The Trojans are 19th in the nation by making 39.4% of their 3-pointers — but that mark plummets to a 32.1% clip when playing away from their home court this season. Little Rock has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road with the total in the 150-154.5 point range. To compound matters, the Trojans may be without their best player in Markquis Nowell who is listed as doubtful with an undisclosed issue. He leads the team with a 17.0 PPG average while adding 8.9 Assists-Per-Game and 4.7 Rebounds-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Little Rock is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (848) plus the point(s) versus the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-1) lost their first game of the season on Saturday in their 86-82 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog. California (5-6) has lost their last two games with their 73-64 loss at Oregon State on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: There are two unusual circumstances to this situation that make a mathematical projection for the total in question. First, the Golden Bears will be without their top two scorers in Matt Bradley and Grant Anticevich. Bradley played only 13 minutes on Saturday before injuring his ankle that will keep him out tonight. Anticevich is still recovering from an appendectomy from last month. Their absences remove 28.1 PPG combined from their lineup. And they will be playing a Cougars team that is allowing only 60.8 PPG on 34.2% shooting from the field. But Washington State has played a very soft strength of schedule that is largely responsible for those gaudy defensive numbers. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics calculate that the Cougars’ strength of schedule has been the 309th easiest in the nation. The number is in the high-120s — and dropping. I think it is too low for this Pac-12 clash. California has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Losing Bradley and Anticevich is a two-sided coin because Cal also loses their defensive contributions. As it is, the Golden Bears are allowing their Pac-12 opponents to score 74.4 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots in five games. If Washington State approaches those numbers, this game flies Over. They return home where the players asked to make up for the baskets Bradley and Anticevich would be making will feel more comfortable. This team did make 51.2% of the shots against the Beavers. California has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Washington State has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six-game. Now they go on the road for the first time all season — and I suspect this will impact their defensive numbers. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Additionally, Washington State has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of over 60% at home (Cal is 4-1 at home).

FINAL TAKE: I value team trends for two reasons: (1) they can identify a personality of a team regarding how they respond to certain situations and (2) they can expose biases in how the market perceives certain teams. The latter is particularly in play here. The market tends to overestimate the value of the Washington State defense. That means a soft number for us — which is what I think were are experiencing tonight. Cal has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. I think they find enough scoring from their remaining roster to push this game into the 130s. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). THE SITUATION: Wichita State (6-2) has won five games in a row after their 83-79 upset win at Ole Miss on Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Houston (8-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season at Tulsa by defeating SMU on the road on Sunday by a 74-60 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Shockers made 9 of their 20 shots from the behind the arc on Saturday against the Rebels despite going into that game with a 33% shooting percentage from downtown. Expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight — especially against this Cougars team that is 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 24.5% shooting from 3-point land. Wichita State made 52% of their shots in that game in what was their best offensive performance of the season. But Wichita State has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Shockers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while Wichita State has scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. The Shockers allowed Mississippi to make 41.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they allowed in their last four games. Wichita State holds their opponents to 38.9% shooting — and their last five opponents are shooting just 36.0%. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Shockers have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Houston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. The Cougars made 39.1% of their shots which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. Houston has only had preseason American Athletic Conference Player of the Year for four games this season — and now Caleb Mills has decided to transfer. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is now, more than ever, defined by their play on defense. They are seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.0%. They hold their opponents to only 55.0 PPG on their home court on 36.2% shooting. The Under is 21-5-1 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). THE SITUATION: Xavier (8-2) has lost their last two games after their 85-68 upset loss as a 3-point favorite last Wednesday. St. John’s (6-4) snapped a three-game losing streak back on December 20th with their 94-83 win against Georgetown as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MUSKETEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Xavier made only 43.1% of their shots which was tied for the third-worst shooting effort this season. The Musketeers had covered the point spread in five straight games before that loss to the Pirates. Xavier has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Musketeers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with five or six days of rest. Xavier now returns home where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.3 PPG. The Musketeers are making 50.2% of their shots at home which is generating 83.0 PPG. They are also holding their opponents to just 39.7% of their shots when playing on their home court. Xavier matches up quite well against the Red Storm who deploy head coach Mike Anderson’s “40 minutes of hell” full-court press. St. John’s is 29th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.5% of their possessions. But the Musketeers get good guard play from seniors Paul Scruggs and Nate Johnson. Xavier only turns the ball over in 16.0% of their possessions which is 37th best in the nation. They have not turned the ball over more than 11 times in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in their last four. If and when the Musketeers break the Red Storm press, they should torch their defense. St. John’s has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.7% which is 325th in the nation — and they are allowing their opponents to make 39.6% of their 3-pointers. Xavier has an eFG of 55.9% which is 25th in the country — and they are making 37.2% of their 3-pointers which is 51st in the nation. St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit victory against a Big East foe. The Red Storm shot 47.6% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games while making 13 of their 29 shots from behind the arc. But St. John’s has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 13 shots from 3-point land in their last game. The Red Storm also held the Hoyas to just 43.5% shooting which was their second-best scoring effort in their last eight games. Anderson’s team may be rusty in this game having not played in 17 days. They go back on the road where they have lost three of their four games while allowing their home hosts to make 50% of their shots. St. John’s have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Red Storm have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and Xavier has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Xavier (688) minus the points versus the St. John’s (687). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-2) had won eight games in a row before losing at home to Texas on Saturday by an 84-59 score as a 4.5-point favorite. TCU (9-2) has won five straight contests after their 67-60 win at Kansas State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas played their worst game of the season on Saturday. They made only 30.8% of their shots from the field including missing 20 of their 23 shots from behind the arc. That 30.8% field goal percentage was their lowest mark of the season. They also allowed the Longhorns to make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Kansas has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.5% so they should play better tonight. Head coach Bill Self has been remarkably reliable in getting his team to respond with good efforts after bad losses. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 10 points against a conference rival. Additionally, Kansas is a dominant 43-19-3 ATS in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game. Perhaps the Jayhawks were primed for a letdown after defeating two ranked teams in Texas Tech and West Virginia in their previous two games. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 130s. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. TCU is 4-2 at home this season — but with just a +4.8 net points-per-game differential. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. Additionally, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win over a Big 12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home after winning at least two games in a row. The Horned Frogs’ best win this season was against Oklahoma State — their losses were against Providence and Oklahoma. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team is perhaps best at defending the arc — they are holding opponents to just a 28.2% shooting percentage from 3-point land which is 41st in the nation. But Self’s team is not reliant on 3-pointers — they only take 36.2% of their shots from behind the arc which is the 206th most reliant on 3s in the nation. Kansas should dominate the interior in this game with their size — the Horned Frogs allow their opponents to make 49.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 160th. The Jayhawks should also get plenty of second-chance opportunities. Kansas pulls down 35.1% of their missed shots which is 31st in the nation — and TCU ranks 150th by allowing their opponents to pull down 27.1% of their misses.

FINAL TAKE: Marcus Garrett is questionable for Kansas after suffering a head injury against Texas -- Self said he seemed good yesterday (but would be a game-time decision). The point guard is solid but his potential absence is not devastating for this balanced Jayhawks team. TCU is not in Kansas’ league — they rank 76th and 60th in the nation in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while the Jayhawks rank 36th and 19th in those metrics. Kansas has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Horned Frogs would be more dangerous as a home dog in this spot if they were playing in front of a packed gym full of fans. Alas … 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Kansas Jayhawks (639) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D6-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United last Wednesday. Southampton (W7-D5-L4) is winless in their last four matches after their 0-0 draw with West Ham United last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: If this was football and I saw two teams coming off scoreless games (or uber-low scoring), I would be skeptical of taking the Under. But soccer is different — the total has fallen given market pressures in response to the recent scores. In fact, there are a lot more 3.25s out there than there were at my bedtime last night when there were 3s and 2.75s. These are two sides struggling with their form in the attack while simultaneously very deliberating playing a more cautious approach. Southampton played a nil-nil draw with Fulham in their previous match where they only generated 0.33 expected goals (xG). They did get their best striker, Danny Ings, back last week. Yet this remains a team that is averaging only 1.10 xG per match this season which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The Saints were always due to see some regression from the strong scoring numbers over the summer in Project Restart. They have now not scored in three straight matches. But they are playing better defensively with two straight clean sheets. They have an expected goals allowed per game mark of 1.25 xGA. They have held their last five opponents to 1.0 or lower xG. The high press of manager Ralph Hassenhuttl is being deployed more judiciously this season. Keep Alex McCarthy is out because of COVID but his backup is Ben Forster who is a quality keeper with years of starting experience in the EPL (that knowledge is the small reward of years of playing EPL fantasy …). Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara returned for that match against Newcastle — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds had allowed 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league — and that was before holding the Magpies to just 0.79 xG. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their eleven league matches — and they have four clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those eleven league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous three matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their eight EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today against a quality side that will burn them in the counterattack.

FINAL TAKE: Klopp’s tactics usually work against Southampton. They have held the Saints to only two goals in their last eight matches with six clean sheets. Maybe Southampton scores — but I don’t see this Liverpool offense bagging more than two goals on the road. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia is getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. They have played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing at home after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Philly defense also gave up 513 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they hold their guests to just 23.4 PPG along with 336.3 YPG. The Eagles have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Football Team has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Washington has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has managed only 15 and 13 points in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Washington did gain 386 yards last week but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. With second-year QB Dwayne Haskins cut earlier this week, it will be Taylor Heinicke as the backup quarterback if Smith gets re-injured. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG. Washington is scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging 310.7 YPG in their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. They upset the Eagles by a 27-17 score as a 5.5-point favorite on September 3rd - and Philly has played 3 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-14) lost their fourteenth straight game this season with their 41-17 loss to Chicago as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-24 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars’ soft-tanking job consists of somehow deciding Mike Glennon is a better choice to be their quarterback than Gardner Minshew. Sure, if the goal is to never score enough points to threaten to win a second game this season. Jacksonville has scored 41 combined points in their last three games while never topping 17 points in those three contests. They are averaging only 300.0 YPG in those games. To make matters worse this week, running back James Robinson and wide receiver D.J. Chark are out with injuries. The Jaguars defense is a mess — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played two straight Overs, they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing an Over — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing two straight Overs. The Jags have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in January. Indianapolis has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Colts’ offense has taken a massive blow with left tackle Anthony Castonzo who went on Injured Reserve this week with a knee injury. The strength of the Indianapolis offense is their line with Castonzo being the key member. Indianapolis still has a strong defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 335.3 YPG. The Colts return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. With Buffalo beating Miami, it looks like the Colts will already be in the playoffs before this game kicks off — and that may come to head coach Frank Reich to bench Philip Rivers and other key starters on offense. Indy will likely run and grind their way to victory. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (8-1) enters the postseason coming off a 34-13 win at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. North Carolina (8-3) comes off a 62-26 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 3-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M has a chip on their shoulder for this game after not getting what they considered to be the “second” automatic bid into the College Football Playoff semifinals after getting bypassed by Notre Dame and an Ohio State team that “only” played six games (after seeing their non-conference schedule consisting of Bowling Green and Buffalo cut due to COVID). Will the Aggies come into this game with something to prove — or will they be complacent? The history of Jimbo Fisher teams is to take bowl games seriously. Fisher’s teams have won seven of their nine bowl games while covering the point spread in 6 of these 9 bowl games. And Fisher is regime building in College Station with a 25-10 record in his first three seasons there including two bowl wins after they crushed NC State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 55-13 score. This is a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game in the cushy Saturday night prime-time slot with plenty of eyeballs from recruits to playoff committee members to AP voters that will make their preseason rankings which sets the table to rig the game for Power Five conference teams for playoff considerations — and the rich Texas A&M alumni are always watching with interest. So, yeah, I think Fisher has had his whip out for his team in practice to prepare for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 497 yards against the Volunteers, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. Senior Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards in the win — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Aggies also have an outstanding defense that ranks 11th in the nation by allowing 316.6 YPG. North Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory on the road by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Additionally, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an ACC opponent. UNC exploded for 778 yards against the Hurricanes while outgaining them by +464 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Head coach Mack Brown is dealing with several opt-outs for this game with three of his top skill players on offense in wide receiver Dyami Brown and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and his best defensive player in linebacker Chazz Surratt bypassing this game. Brown has young but untested talent filling their shoes. The Tar Heels rushed for a whopping 554 yards against Miami — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Now they face a stout Aggies run defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry — while ranking second in the nation by allowing only 92.2 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 19th with their 53-48 upset loss at LSU as a 1-point favorite. Indiana (6-1) has won their last two games with their 14-6 upset victory at Wisconsin on December 5th as a 12-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss surrendered 593 yards against the Tigers in what has been a horror show of a season for them on defense. But they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels committed six turnovers in that game with quarterback Matt Corral throwing five interceptions in the loss. He should clean that up a bit in this bowl game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where they turned the ball over at least four times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Corral will be without his top two targets in wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah who have opted out for the NFL draft. But those two did not play against LSU — and they still gained 558 total yards with 251 of those yards in the air. Corral needs to make better decisions — and head coach Lane Kiffin’s offensive schemes should generate plenty of yardage no matter who is out there. The Rebels rushed for 307 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. They may be without running back Jerron Early who is questionable with an injury. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. The Hoosiers won that game despite being outgained by -125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Maryland in their previous game by a 27-11 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This team did most of their good work this season with the dynamic Michael Penix, Jr. but he is out the season with an ankle injury. The offense is simply not the same with Jack Tuttle under center. The Hoosiers gained only 217 yards against Badgers — and they have thrown for only 130 and 115 yards in their two games since Tuttle inherited the quarterbacking gig. Indiana is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be motivated since the Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since 1991 while the Rebels have not won a bowl game since 2016. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral field. The Rebels are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Look for a close game with Ole Miss’ offense keeping them in this game. 25* CFB ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: It cannot be understated how significant a negative impact it was for Ohio State to have 22 players out in the Big Ten Championship Game — including their best wide receiver Chris Olave and one of their best defensive players in linebacker Baron Browning. Now, more than ever, I am embracing patience and due diligence before releasing plays after getting burned that morning (and we still should have covered that game with the Buckeyes’ final offensive drive stopping at the 1-yard line as time expired). A few important thoughts guided my decision this morning. The Buckeyes declared wide receiver Chris Olave as available to play this morning (along with their other players including Browning). Many of the 22 players impacted by COVID did not take part in full practice -- but that is not all that uncommon during the season (although not ideal). Now there is a narrative developing that Clemson has a situational advantage for this game having played in five more games. Maybe — although I have never heard the same argument made in college basketball (e.g. Duke has played in five more games than North Carolina — edge Blue Devils!). I just think this intangible is being significantly overplayed. Even though Ohio State has played six fewer games, they have been practicing the entire time! I mean, Ryan Day was pulling two-a-days in August even when the Big Ten canceled their darn season. And it is not as if Ohio State has been practicing against the local Columbus high school team in place of getting those five extra games against The Citadel and Syracuse that Clemson enjoyed. They were practicing and being coached-up playing against each other. Yes, statistically-speaking, elite teams improve in their efficiency numbers as the season moves forward — but not all of that improvement is contained to their game-day experiences. And, by-the-way, if we are going to become laptop fundamentalists on this point (despite the lack of data distinguishing between more practice time experience versus more practice and game time experience, then I would like to gently suggest that those same laptops give the edge to Opponent Adjusted Efficiency to the Buckeyes rather than the Tigers (with Pitt and Boston College and Syracuse and the Citadel). Furthermore, won't the five fewer games played now make this Buckeyes’ team relatively fresher? I remember all the darn Hot Takes four months ago that the potential postponement of the fall season until the spring would be devastating to the “student-athletes” who did not get a full offseason to recover before the fall because the regular season is so grueling. These are just bullshit arguments. What edge Clemson has in being a bit more battle-tested is likely mitigated with Ohio State being a little fresher. The Buckeyes have been motivated by revenge for this potential rematch for over a calendar year — with QB Josh Fields particularly anxious to redeem himself from that late interception in their 29-23 loss in the College Football Semifinals. Clemson has been mediocre at running the football as they average just 163.8 rushing YPG (68th in the nation) with little explosiveness as they had only three rushes for more than 40 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops think this is closer to a coin flip game — and I agree. It not often that the Buckeyes are getting around a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog when getting 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in January. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide are going to score their share of points. They have scored at least 38 points in all eleven of their games while reaching at least 41 points in each of their games since their opening contest. They have the top Success Rate in the country which suggests they will convert first downs and score touchdowns in the Red Zone. Alabama has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have scored at least 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. And while they have scored at least 42 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in four straight contests. They raced out to a 35-17 lead at halftime against Florida — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after leading by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule. Can Notre Dame approach 30 points in this game? I think so. The most impressive thing about their upset victory against Clemson was the 90-yard drive they executed late in the game to force overtime after the Tigers had rallied in that game after their offense slowed down. The Fighting Irish scored less than 27 just twice this season. Perhaps head coach Brian Kelly will try to slow this game down by running the ball? Well, he didn’t try that against Clemson in that upset win. And playing conservatively fails as soon as a team trails by double-digits — so the Irish may not have a choice in how aggressive they play. Notre Dame has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while that game finished Under the 58 point total, the Irish have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Irish have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.4 and 8.2 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has seen the Over go 22-8-2 in their last 32 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in January. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the faster field turf rather than the grass field like at their home field. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). THE SITUATION: Toronto (0-3) has started the new season with three straight losses after their 100-93 loss at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. New York (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 95-86 win at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a rough start for head coach Nick Nurse’s team. They lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in free agency. They have had to make Tampa Bay their temporary home given COVID protocols in Canada prohibiting travel to and from the United States. Yet this remains a talented basketball team with Pascal Siakam, Kevin Lowry, and quality depth. They added Aron Baynes to compensate for the loss of Ibaka and Gasol (but they could probably use another big man). The Raptors have been outrebounded by at least eight boards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after getting outrebounded by at least 5 boards in three straight games. Toronto only made 35.6% of their shots on Tuesday against the 76ers which was their worst shooting effort this season. But they did hold the Sixers to only a 38.1% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season — so that is encouraging. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. And while Toronto has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. New York played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday by holding the Cavaliers to just 36.4% shooting. That defensive effort helped that game finish miles below the 216 point total — but the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 77 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. That win came on the heels of their 130-110 upset win against Milwaukee on Sunday. But new coach Tom Thibodeau has seen his teams fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. Despite these early upsets, this is still a major rebuilding project in New York. They committed a troubling 25 turnovers against Cleveland while enduring a -12 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least ten more times than their opponent. This Knicks team is also dealign with a bunch of injuries with Dennis Smith, Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and rookie Obi Toppin all out and Austin Rivers questionable with a groin.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks made be just what the doctor ordered for Nurse and this Raptors team. Toronto has won eight straight games against New York while covering the point spread in six of these games. I don’t love that this game is being played in Tampa Bay — but the Raptors have played a game already in their new home this season and we would likely be laying 12 or so points if this game was being played in Toronto (and I would be investing in this situation still). The circumstances here are too good to pass up. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This bowl game presents the Mountaineers the opportunity to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last game. West Virginia had covered the point spread in their previous three games before that bad loss to the Cyclones — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 126.2 rushing YPG. But they have surrendered 183 rushing YPG over their last three contests in getting exposed by Texas, TCU, and then Iowa State. Now this Mountaineers team faces a triple-option rushing attack for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, they will face this challenge without one of their best defensive players in linebacker Tony Fields, Jr. who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Army should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a contest where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, Army has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season.

FINAL TAKE: Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his team ready to play. West Virginia is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight bowl games. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (2-2) got a small measure of revenge against a Heat team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the fall with their 144-97 blowout win in Miami as a -6.5-point favorite. Miami (1-2) has lost two of their first three games this season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks played as if they had been visualizing every 3-point attempt sinking for them since they got eliminated by the Heat in the bubble in last year’s playoffs. Milwaukee made an NBA record 29 shots from behind the arc while nailing 56.9% of their 51 3-point attempts. Needless to say, the Regression Gods will be visiting tonight. The issue is how far down to earth will the Bucks play again tonight? Their team personality suggests they will suffer a significant emotional letdown. Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in the four games after a victory. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. I looked the Bucks closely — I got scared off for two reasons. First, even after last night’s triumph, Milwaukee has still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 road games when favored by up to 6 points. The second reason I backed off was that Miami was playing without Jimmy Butler who is dealing with an ankle injury. While the Heat are obviously better with Butler leading the team, I was concerned that the oddsmakers and betting market would overcompensate for his absence. Butler has been ruled out tonight — which makes me like the Miami side even more in this rematch situation. With Bam Aqebayo and Goran Dragic leading the way for a team whose depth remains a strength, there is plenty of talent to keep things close tonight. As head coach Erik Spoelstra indicated after the game, his team did not match the Bucks’ intensity level last night. They also did a poor job early in their 3-point defense with Spoelstra indicating that the Bucks’ first 15 shots from downtown were “right in their wheelhouse.” Both of those issues will be corrected tonight. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. And while they allowed a whopping 46 points in the first quarter en route to going to the locker room at halftime with a 83-57 hole, they also have covered the point spread in 4 of 5 games after trailing by at least 20 points at halftime. Miami has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least 30 points. As it is, this has been a resilient group under Spoelstra. The Heat are 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in twenty-six of their last thirty-four games after a setback. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home court. The Heat made only 46.8% of their shots after nailing at least 50.6% of their shots in their first two games. I think Miami improved their roster by bringing in Moe Harmless for Jae Crowder while also adding the criminally-underrated Avery Bradley. The Heat also committed an unsightly 22 turnovers last night which they should clean up tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee had not looked great early in the season with two losses to Boston and New York along with a win against a Golden State team that may be in for another long year. Chemistry is an issue after significant roster turnover after failing to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Expect a close game and don’t be surprised with a Heat upset — but (always) take the points for some insurance especially with the Heat playing without Butler who is so clutch down the stretch. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D5-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw against West Brom on Sunday. Newcastle (W5-D3-L6) is winless in their last three matches after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara might be fit enough to return — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Even if Thiago cannot take the pitch, this game should still be a lower-scoring match. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds are allowing 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their ten league matches — and they have three clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those ten league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their seven EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today. Newcastle is third-to-last in the EPL with 1.14 expected goals (xG) per match. The Magpies will be without two of their more talented offensive players in this match with Allan Saint-Maximin and Jamaal Lascelles injured — but manager Steve Bruce should insert Callum Wilson back into the starting XI after he did not play against Man City. Newcastle does not engage in an ambitious approach on the pitch. They have scored only seven goals in their nine home matches in the EPL this season. But their defense has been solid — they are 10th in the league by allowing 1.42 expected goals allowed (xGA) per contest.

FINAL TAKE: These are also two teams that are being worked hard right now. This is Liverpool’s third match in ten days while Newcastle is playing their fourth match in ten days. The wear and tear tires out the legs with the players having just a little less energy on the pitch. This should be a lower-scoring match with a Liverpool clean sheet very possible. 25* EPL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-1) has won two of their last three games with their 98-95 win at San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (2-1) rebounded from their first loss in nine games going back to the bubble by avenging their loss to the Kings with a 116-110 win in Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 48.9% of their shots which was the best shooting mark so far in their three games this season. But Phoenix has played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Suns saw the Kings make 47.4% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the young season as well. Phoenix has played of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Suns return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when favored. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This game flew Under the 227.5 point total as well — and the Pelicans have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. New Orleans made only 38.3% of their shots which is concerning since they made only 39.7% of their shots in their previous game at Miami. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Pelicans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has seen only 204.7 combined points in their first three games — and Phoenix has seen only 211.0 combined points in their first three games. While matchups make fights, the Pelicans are clearly emphasizing defense under first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy and the Suns’ improvement in the bubble that seems to be carrying over was in part because of improved emphasis on their defensive play (particularly in the emergence of Mikal Bridges). Nice value here. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (628) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (627). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-2) comes off a 102-95 upset loss at Minnesota on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) pulled off their third-straight upset victory on Saturday when they stunned Ohio State as a 2.5-point home underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has been remarkably reliable when coming off a straight-up loss under head coach Fran McCaffrey. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a game where both teams scored at least 80 points. Iowa made only 37.2% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Now the Hawkeyes return home where they are 7-0 with an average winning margin of +29.5 net PPG. Iowa is making 49.9% of their shots at home which is generating a staggering 96.1 PPG. And while the conventional wisdom on Iowa is that they are not a great defensive team, they hold their guests to 39.9% shooting which is resulting in only 66.6 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 gams at home. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Northwestern has pulled upsets against Michigan State and Indiana before their win over the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset win at home against a Big Ten rival. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home in the Big Ten — and they are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a point spread win. Even in the win, Northwestern demonstrated some vulnerabilities in the paint against the Buckeyes — and that is an ominous sign when now facing Luka Garza who is a scoring machine with his 28.8 PPG scoring average on 62.7% shooting and a beast on the boards with a 10.0 RPG average. The Wildcats are an improved team under head coach Chris Collins — but it has not been a complete roster overhaul of bluechip five stars from the team that finished 3-17 in Big Ten play last season. Collins has his team playing at a quicker pace — but that will be a big mistake if they try that against Iowa. Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 150s.

FINAL TAKE: It may look easy to take this upstart Wildcats team as a double-digit dog to at least keep things close given their recent success — but that is kinda the point. Iowa has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when laying double-digits. Trust the oddsmakers on this one — the Hawkeyes’ offensive prowess can produce another blowout at Carver-Hawkeyes Arena. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (628) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (627). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W6-D3-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw against Tottenham on Sunday. Man United (W8-D3-L3) settled for a 1-1 draw at Leicester City on Saturday in their most recent match.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in the English Premier League since a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on November 1st. That loss to the Gunners continued to expose a weakness of this Red Devils team under Gunnar Solskjaer: they tend to struggle against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. Remember, Man United did not advance out of the Group Stage of the Champions League last month because of a terrible 2-1 loss to Istanbul Basekeshir. Since that result, the Red Devils have settled for a nil-nil draw with Newcastle United while barely defeating a Sheffield United team by a 3-2 score that looks destined for relegation. The Man United defense has taken a step back from last season — they rank just 9th in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) with that mark lowering to 11th in the league in xGA when playing at home at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have also been pretty fortunate with their 30 goals this season since their expected goals (xG) projects only 24.34 goals for them. Man United is 4th in the table with 27 points — but their 22.38 expected Points (xPTS) would place them seventh. Wolverhampton has some nice recent results with that draw with the Spurs and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea on December 15th. The Wolves miss Raul Jimenez as their striker — but this remains an organized team under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Wolverhampton is not quite as stout defensively as they were last season when opponents managed only 0.92 xG in non-penalty kick scoring opportunities. That number has risen to 1.10 nonPK xGA this year — but that is still a stingy number.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolves thrive in the type of tactics that stymie Manchester United. This Red Devils team also has chemistry issues with Paul Pogba wanting to be released and Solskjaer continuing to sit on the hot seat given his team’s inconsistent play. A draw is very possible — and a Wolves upset is more likely than Man United winning by more than one goal. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. New England has also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots’ offense is sputtering with mediocre quarterback play combining with a lack of talent at the skill positions. They are generating just 271.3 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Head coach Bill Belichick has been coy this week about who his starting quarterback will be as he may use these final two games to let Jarett Stidham audition for the job next season now that they have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stidham is completing just 54.5% of his passes in limited action this season while lacking the mobility of Newton. New England has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Patriots have played six straight games Under the Total, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. New England is playing well on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They did give up 383 yards to the Dolphins last week but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they holding their guests to just 19.3 PPG. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two in a row away from home. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Buffalo held the Broncos to just 255 yards of offense including only 115 yards in the air. The Bills have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has steadily improved their play on defense after seeing some significant turnover from that unit from last season. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with 293.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott is making things easier on his defense by leaning more on their running game. The Bills are second in the NFL in passing but just 21st in rushing YPG. But Zack Moss rushed for 81 yards last week which was a season-high for the former Utah running back. Look for Buffalo to use this game to continue to develop and fine-tune their ground game as they prepare to make a deep playoff run — and this commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock to help our Under. The Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49.5 range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the total in that 42.5 to 49.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo won the first meeting between these two teams by a 24-21 score on November 1st. New England has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). THE SITUATION: Memphis (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 122-112 upset loss to Atlanta as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (2-1) lost their first game of the season yesterday with their 106-104 upset loss at Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Memphis has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis is throwing up a bunch of shots — they have launched 95 and 93 shots in their first two games. But the Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Furthermore, Memphis has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning  percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has made it point to play outstanding defense according to Kevin Durant. They have held their first three opponents to just 39.9% shooting — and these three foes have scored only 100.0 PPG against them. The Hornets shot 44.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance for the Nets this season. Look for this Brooklyn team to tighten things up on defense. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing without rest. UPDATE: Head coach Steve Nash has announced that both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will get the night off given load management after playing yesterday. With the team already missing Dinwiddie, that is plenty of scoring not available tonight. The team trends above capture the personality of this Nets’ team playing in the bubble without Durant and Irving last season — so the Under situation remains very good.

FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn suffered terrible news earlier today with the announcement that Spencer Dinwiddie will be out the season with a torn ACL that he suffered yesterday. Memphis has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging a robust 37.4 PPG over that stretch. Yet the Tennessee defense has allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents are able to keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Titans ran for 195 yards led by Derrick Henry’s 147 yards, they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Henry’s rushing sets up Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passing — there is a reason that Tennessee is scoring 31.1 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. Green Bay is scoring 31.0 PPG themselves. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Packers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. Their 24 points scored last week was the first time in their last five games where they did not score at least 30 points. Once Green Bay gets rolling with Aaron Rodgers under center, they are happy to engage in scoring contests if necessary. The Packers have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. Furthermore, Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while it might snow tonight at Lambeau Field, Rodgers has thrown 99 touchdown passes in his 43 games played inclement weather at home in Green Bay.

FINAL TAKE: Bad weather will also likely play right into the hands of Henry and the Titans’ play-action game — so I see the potential for snow as a net-plus regarding this Over play. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog and 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played in December, the game finished Over the Total 8 times. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Turnovers are killing head coach Mike Shanahan’s team. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in three straight games while being burdened with a -2 or wore net turnover margin in two straight games. San Francisco has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least three games with a -1 or worse net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two straight games with a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018. Look for Shanahan to commit to running the football to take some pressure off the former Iowa quarterback. San Francisco needs to limit turnovers since their defense is playing well. They are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games — and they hold their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona tallied 526 total yards against Philly but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cards’ defense gave up 305 yards to Jalen Hurts in the win — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games against fellow NFC West foes. Arizona won the first meeting between these two teams by a 26-20 score. Expect a similar result. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Minnesota did gain 397 yards in the loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine being responsible for 18 giveaways including his 13 interceptions which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. But he is leading an offense that has scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. Yet the depleted Vikings’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five contests. Minnesota is running out of linebackers. Both Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye are out for this game while Todd Davis is doubtful. Anthony Barr is already out the season — as is defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Vikings were already allowing 27.7 PPG to the dismay of head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against NFC opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Drew Brees was rusty in his first game back on the field after missing four straight games with his rib injuries — but he played better as that game went on by leading his team to 20 points in the second half. New Orleans was outgained by -126 net yards but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after being outgained by at least -100 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has surrendered at least 179 yards in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last  5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. With Brees starting under center, the Saints have scored at least 24 points in all ten of his games — and they have scored at least 27 points in eight of those contests. And outside of a five-game stretch from November 8th through December 6th where the New Orleans’ defense allowed just 44 combined points, they allowed at least 23 points in each of their remaining nine games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect New Orleans to at least reach their 28.4 PPG scoring average against this injury-ravaged Vikings’ defense with Cousins scoring enough points to keep it interesting. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (752) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (751). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (6-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season on Sunday with their 79-65 upset loss in Evanston against Northwestern as an 8.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (7-1) has won four games in a row with their 67-53 victory over Nebraska on Tuesday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINT(S): Michigan State probably played their worst game of the season on Sunday. They made only 38.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting marker them this season. They also allowed the Wildcats to make 52.9% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance of the year. Head coach Tom Izzo certainly made defense a priority in practice this week after they allowed Oakland to make 50% of their shots in their previous game. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last to opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Michigan State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Perhaps the biggest challenge for Izzo with his team this season is replacing the leadership of the departed Cassius Winston. While sophomore Rocket Watts has assumed the starting point guard duties, this group is doing a great job of sharing the basketball. The Spartans are second in the nation by assisting on 73.7% of their field goals. They have generated at least 19 assists in three straight games — and Izzo’s teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing two straight games with at least 19 teams assists. Michigan State returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while it is not often that Sparty plays at home as an underdog, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games when getting the points. Additionally, Michigan State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Wisconsin has covered the point spread as a favorite for three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread as a favorite for at least three straight contests. The Badgers have held their last three opponents to no better than 38.9% shooting from the field — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Furthermore, Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Badgers are 9th in the nation by making 41.9% of their shots from behind the arc — but they may be too reliant on these shots with them making up 39.0% of their shots from the floor. In their lone loss this season against Marquette, they made only 7 of their 24 shots (29.1%) from 3-point land. Perhaps not coincidentally, that game on December 4th was their only game so far this season played away from their home court at the Kohl Center. The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last five games on the road after playing their previous three games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Look for Michigan State to play one of their best defensive games of the season after their loss to what now looks like a pretty good Northwestern team who followed up their upset win against Sparty with a road win at Indiana. 25* CBB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (752) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (751). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to rebound from their 113-107 upset loss at Orlando on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) looks to build off their 113-99 upset victory at Toronto as a 4-point  underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The defending Eastern Conference champions were a bit flat in their 2020-21 season debut. They turned the ball over 22 times in a sloppy effort against the Magic. The spotlight of national television should help Miami tighten things up this afternoon. This team has been consistently good under head coach Erik Spoelstra after disappointing efforts. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 32 home games as a favorite, the Heat are 21-10-1 ATS. New Orleans may be due for a letdown in their first game under new head coach Stan Van Gundy as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games on the road after an upset victory by at least 10 points. New Orleans has Zion Williamson but they traded away Jrue Holliday to Milwaukee while getting Eric Bledsoe. I am not sure why Van Gundy keeps getting jobs after doing nothing in his last tenure with Detroit. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 trips to Miami to play the Heat. This is a nice early situation for us. 25* NBA ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276) in the Montgomery Bowl. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-3) aw their four-game winning streak snapped on December 10th with a 45-31 upset loss at home to Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 30-27 upset win against Houston as a 7-point underdog on December 12th. This game is being played at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: FAU has suffered two straight upset losses with their setback to the Golden Eagles preceded by a 20-9 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. These disappointments should ensure that head coach Willie Fritz will have his team ready to play in this bowl game. After his unceremonious departure from Florida State last season, Fritz cannot afford to let up in the slightest. As it is, Florida Atlantic has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting upset twice in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits. And in their last 9 games after a point spread loss, the Owls have played 7 of covered the point spread in 7 of these games. FAU should be able to slow down the Tigers’ offensive attack. With former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt as his defensive coordinator, the Owls have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They rank 9th in the nation by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank 15th in the FBS by giving up just 326.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play has helped them cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Memphis is 26th in the nation with a total offense that averages 451.5 YPG. But the Tigers have scored only 20.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 296.7 total YPG. They managed just 300 total yards in their upset victory over Houston. Memphis has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win over an American Athletic Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road for this bowl game where they have lost three of their four games this season while scoring just 17.0 PPG and averaging -80 YPG below their season average. Opt-outs have taken away some of the best skill position talents from the offense of Ryan Silverfield’s team in his first year as the head coach of the program. Running back Kenneth Gainwell along with wide receivers Damonte Coxie and John Williams are no longer with the team despite starting the year on the roster. The Tigers were outgained by the Cougars in their last game by -109 net yards but eked out that game with the help of an 85-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Memphis defense is sketchy as they are allowing 448.7 YPG which is 102nd in the nation. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in December including five of their last six games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight bowl games. FAU has won and covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Austin Peay Governors (786) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (785). THE SITUATION: Austin Peay (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 76-70 upset loss to Florida A&M as a 13-point favorite last Tuesday. Murray State (4-2) has won three of their last four games after their 90-49 win against Transylvania last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOVERNORS PLUS THE POINTS: Austin Peay should respond with a strong effort as they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. That game with Florida A&M might have been their worst effort of the season. They only made 39.7% of their shots which was the second-lowest mark all season. They also allowed Florida A&M to make 55.6% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have surrendered all season. The Governors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. This is a good team under head coach Matt Figger in his fourth year in the program. He had two players declare early for the NBA draft in the spring — but Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams decided to return for their senior and sophomore seasons. Austin Peay was 21-12 with a 14-4 record in the Ohio Valley before the stoppage of play. They are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Murray State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Racers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a double-digit win at home. Murray State has played only twice on the road where they have suffered both of their losses. The Racers returned three starters from the team that finished 15-3 in the Ohio Valley and 23-9 overall — but there is only one senior in their rotation. Murray State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams already played once on December 8th when the Racers embarrassed the Governors on their home court by an 87-57 score. Austin Peay gets to avenge that loss on their home court tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. 25* CBB Monday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Austin Peay Governors (786) plus the points versus the Murray State Racers (785). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D3-L4) has lost only once in their last six matches after their 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace last Wednesday. Chelsea (W6-D4-L3) has lost two straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-1 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has been very reliable on the attack this season even with their top striker, Michail Antonio, being out since November. The Hammers have scored at least one goal in fifteen of their last sixteen matches across all competitions. West Ham has generated at least 2.0 expected goals in two of their last three matches including a sharp 2.67 xG mark against Manchester United. This team is playing well with four wins and a draw in their last six EPL matches. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their six road matches in league play. All six of these contests have seen at least three combined goals. Chelsea is desperate for a win after losing their last two matches to fall to eighth place in the EPL table. The Blues had been unbeaten in their previous fourteen matches across all competitions. This team could put up a big number against this West Ham team that has allowed 16 goals in their thirteen matches. Chelsea is tied for third in the league with 26 goals — and their expected goals mark of 23.63 is third-best in the EPL. The Blues have scored at least one goal in nine of their last eleven games across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea scored three and four goals in their first two matches of the month against Leeds United and then Sevilla in the Champions League before their recent slump where they have scored only two goals in their last three matches. The Blues have scored two more goals in seven of their thirteen league matches. They have scored 14 goals in their six home matches at Stamford Bridge. Look for them to break out of their slump in a must-win match. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (2-5) looks to bounce back from their 24-17 upset loss at home to Minnesota last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Rutgers (3-5) looks to build off their 27-24 upset win in overtime at Maryland last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. This Cornhuskers’ offense averages only 22.4 PPG. They managed just 308 total yards against a Golden Gophers’ defense that has struggled this season. Their defense has played better as the season has moved on — they have held their last three opponents to just 25.7 PPG along with 347.0 total YPG which are much better numbers than the 30.6 PPG and 405.7 total YPG they have allowed for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as a favorite. Rutgers has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home after an upset win as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Rutgers rushed for 224 yards last week in the victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And while the Cornhuskers surrendered 206 yards on the ground last week, Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Scarlet Knights have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in New Jersey tonight with the temperatures starting in the low-30s. Expect a quick game tonight with plenty of rushing plays. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year within the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is a decisive 40-19-1 in the Chargers’ last 60 games after a straight-up victory — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The LA defense is ninth in the NFL by allowing 337.1 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 314.0 YPG. They held the Falcons to just 319 yards last week. The Chargers’ offense may be limited this week with running back Austin Ekeler and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all questionable with injuries. The reports this afternoon are that Ekeler will give it a go with his quad injury but that Allen and Williams are game-time decisions with their hamstring and back issues. Los Angles will also be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga who is ruled out with a concussion. These are not encouraging signs for an offense that is scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging just 323.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a short week on a Thursday. And in their last 26 games in December, the Under is 19-6-1. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. Las Vegas has passed for 368 and 345 yards in their last two games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. While there is little that Gruden and newly appointed defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli can do to fix the defensive issues, changing the game plan can ease the burden on the defense a bit. Look for the Raiders to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep his defense off the field. Defensive coaches tend to think their players hit a wall after taking part in around 50 plays. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Raiders have allowed their last two opponents to average 7.72 and 6.60 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Las Vegas stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The offense is scoring only 21.3 PPG over their last three games — and the Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will be playing with revenge on their mind from a 31-26 loss at home to the Raiders on November 8th — and they have played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (693) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (694). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-68 upset loss to Illinois back on December 8th as a 3-point favorite. Notre Dame (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 64-63 upset victory in Rupp Arena against Kentucky on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: The college basketball observers who pontificate about point spreads think that the oddsmakers have installed Duke as a favorite only because of the reputation of head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Well, he has managed to lead his team to cover point spread expectations in 19 of their last 24 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by at least 15 points. Additionally, his Blue Devils are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after a loss by at least 10 points. Now of the reasons why Krzyzewski's teams are so reliable after setbacks is the disappointment usually ensures a captive audience from the uber-talented roster he consistently assembles. Duke will be without their most naturally-talented player in Jalen Johnson after the freshman suffered a foot injury. And while this Duke team may lack the elite talent of some of his recent teams, there are still plenty of five-star players at his disposal — and this is one of his deepest teams over the last few seasons. The eight days off between games will help Coach K continue to work with his team in practice. He will fine-tune some issues on defense after the Illini shot 58.6% from the field which was the worst defensive performance of their season. This is the Blue Devils from game away from Cameron Indoor — but Duke has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games after playing at three straight games at home. The Blue Devils have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 140s. Notre Dame is riding high after their upset victory over another blue blood in Kentucky — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. The Fighting Irish raced out to a 31-9 lead in the first ten minutes of the game before going into halftime with a 22-point lead. But Notre Dame was outscored by a deceive 54-33 margin in the final 30 minutes. And head coach Mike Brey’s teams at South Bend have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not forcing more than 14 turnovers in at least four straight games. Notre Dame has not forced more than 12 turnovers in any of their four games — and they rank 315th in the nation by only turning the ball over in 13.6% of their opponent’s possessions. Furthermore, the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: This Duke team — despite losses to Michigan State and Illinois — ranks 17th in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics. So take all the negative talk about how down this the Blue Devils team is with a grain or two of salt. Let’s trust KenPom and the oddsmakers’ judgment (and Coach K!). 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with Duke Blue Devils (693) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (694). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W7-D4-L1) remained unbeaten in their last eleven English Premier League matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Liverpool (W7-D4-L1) comes off a disappointing 1-1 draw at Fulham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs had registered four straight clean sheets before allowing that goal to the Eagles. Tottenham leads the EPL by allowing only 10 goals this season. Manager Jose Mourinho often keeps six players back on defense in a cautious approach that finds success because of the clinical scoring prowess of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. But the Spurs are scoring at a rate that is unsustainable relative to the pressure they are creating. They have only 18.80 expected goals (xG) versus their 24 actual goals. On the road, they have scored 14 times despite their xG of 9.88. Six of those goals came in their 6-1 barrage victory at Old Trafford against a Man United side that gave up in the second half. In their other three wins away from home, Tottenham has scored four times despite a minuscule 1.18 combined xG in those three matches. In their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, they managed only 1.21 xG. Liverpool is dealing with a number of injuries. Defensemen Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Thiago Alacantara are all injured along with defensive midfielder Joe Milner. These absences have compelled manager Jurgen Klopp to change tactics with him abandoning the high line press that was the Reds’ signature over the last two seasons which brought home a Champions League and English Premier League title. Liverpool has played more conventional while taking fewer chances of going on the attack. In their last four matches across all competitions, the Reds have conceded only two goals. Yet the Reds have not scored more than one goal in five of their last six contests. Forward Sadio Mane is out-of-form which has hurt the offensive attack. And while Trent Alexander-Arnold returned from his injury last week, he is not at 100% with his offensive skill limited. Liverpool hosts this match at Anfield where they have won all six of their EPL matches this season while conceding just six times — and their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) is even better at 5.46 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 11th in EPL action with Liverpool eking out a 1-0 victory at Tottenham Stadium in a match after Mourinho had taken over the team. Expect another cautious, low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (616) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (615). THE SITUATION: Illinois (4-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 81-78 upset loss at Missouri on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (6-0) remained unbeaten to start the season with their 90-61 win over UMKC last Thursday as a 17-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ILLINI MINUS THE POINTS: Illinois bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Illinois has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. This is a battle-tested team whose other loss is to the second-ranked team in the nation in Baylor — and all they did between their losses was crush Duke at Cameron Indoor Arena by an 83-68 score. The Illini have one of the best starting-fives in the nation led by a dynamic inside-out duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmu was a preseason All-American who is scoring 24.8 PPG while adding 7.7 Rebounds-Per-game and 5.2 Assists-Per-Game. The 7’0 Cockburn is also an NBA talent who scored 13.3 PPG last season while pulling down 8.8 Assists-Per-Game. They return home to Champagne for only their fourth game on their home court this season — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 home games when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Minnesota is just 2-6-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now the Golden Gophers go on the road for the first time all season — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games after playing their last three games at home. Minnesota has not been a great team on the road under head coach Richard Pitino. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Golden Gophers have also failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 47 road games as an underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. This team was better than their 15-16 record last year. They certainly got a shot in the arm when Marcus Carr bypassed the NBA to return for his junior season. And Minnesota added two nice transfer players in center Liam Robbins from Drake and guard Both Gach from Utah. Yet this is an untested group whose overtime win last week at home against Boston College was their only game against a power-five conference opponent before tonight.

FINAL TAKE: This will be an angry Illini team after losing to Mizzou — and the Golden Gophers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Illinois Fighting Illini (616) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Baltimore did give up 388 yards of offense to the Cowboys — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. The Ravens got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. That will burn time off the clock — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Baltimore’s productivity on offense has dipped a bit after the season-ending injury to All-Pro left tackle, Ronnie Stanley. They are averaging 308.7 YPG with a 24.0 PPG scoring average over their last three games as compared to their 26.3 PPG and 337.9 YPG averages for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Browns return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG along with 306.2 total YPG. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Browns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Cleveland has also played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total in the final four weeks of the season. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing with a 158 rushing YPG average — they will be looking to control the time of possession as well. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 38-6 loss to the Ravens in the opening week of the season on September 13th. The Browns have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. The setback on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. After playing their last two games at home, the Steelers go back on the road where the Under is 38-12-1 in their last 51 games. Pittsburgh has also played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total on the road with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing their last five games Under the Total in those circumstances. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the Steelers’ last 6 games on the road as an underdog. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Buffalo surrendered 402 yards last week to the 49ers — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills have covered the point spread in four straight games — and not only have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, Buffalo has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won four of their last five games after their 30-16 win against Philadelphia as an 8-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (5-7) comes off a 34-30 upset victory at Chicago as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Detroit played with more energy and enthusiasm in their first game after being liberated from previous head coach Matt Patricia. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell has improved the atmosphere in the Lions’ locker room so expect a spirited effort from this team in playing the role of the spoiler at this point of the season. Detroit has lost four of their last six games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while the Lions surrendered 389 yards to the Bears, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Detroit has allowed 71 combined points in their last two games with both contests going Over the Total — but the Lions have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after allowing at least 25 pints in two straight games and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. And while the Packers are allowing 24.9 Points-Per-Game this season, the Lions have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG. Detroit has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December — and Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. The Packers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Green Bay gained 437 yards last week against the Eagles — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers held Philly to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half in their last contest. And while Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Lions allow 29.8 PPG, Green Bay has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers won the first meeting between these two teams on September 20th by a 42-21 score — and Detroit has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-2)looks to build off their 25-18 upset win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. USC (4-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 38-13 win at home against Washington State as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This appears to be a much improved team in Chip Kelly’s third year with the program at UCLA. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining these opponents by +57.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bruins’ two losses to Colorado and Oregon were by just nine combined points. UCLA has the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against their crosstown rivals — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win while also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where are 2-0 this season with an average winning margin of +20.5 net PPG. The Bruins are averaging 228 rushing YPG which is 16th best in the nation. They have also not allowed more than 18 points in three of their last four games. A good running game along with strong defense is a good recipe to pull the upset. UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home as an underdog. USC is just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Trojans have looked good in their last two games against Washington State and Washington — but they were shaky in their first two games. They needed to score two touchdowns in the final three minutes to get past Arizona State in their opening game — and then they only beat a terrible Arizona team by four points. The Wildcats have lost twelve straight games after their humiliating loss to the Sun Devils last night and the only time they stayed within single digits was against this Trojans team. USC has benefited from a +1.5 net turnover margin per game which is the second-best mark in the nation. The Trojans could not muster any semblances of a rushing attack last week against Washington State as they managed only five rushing yards. Quarterback Kedon Slovis did complete 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes last week but USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored on the road. Head coach Clay Helton’s team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has fared well recently in this series as the home team has covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. USC has not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Rose Bowl playing at UCLA. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). Best of luck for us — Frank.