At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (932) versus the New York Yankees (931) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito in Game One of their American League Wild Card Series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (35-25) enters the playoffs having won seven of their last eight games after their 8-6 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. New York (33-27) has lost four of their last five games as well as seven of their last nine contests with their 5-0 loss to Miami on Sunday. The Indians will be the home team for this best-of-three series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE INDIANS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Cleveland is peaking at the right time in this abbreviated season — and they have won 22 of their last 34 games after a victory. The Indians have also won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 8 runs in their last game. As the higher 4th seed in this bracket matchup, Cleveland hosts this series where they have won 8 of their last 10 home games when priced as a favorite up to -150. They give the ball to Bieber who is 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in twelve starts. The right-hander had an incredible 122 strikeouts in his 77 1/3 innings — and he saw his ERA drop to a 1.23 mark in his four starts at home. He comes off five scoreless innings of work in his last start at home against the White Sox last Wednesday — and the Indians have won 10 of their last 12 games when Bieber is following a start where he did not allow an earned run. Cleveland has also won 9 of their last 11 games with Bieber pitching at night. New York has lost 18 of their last 27 games after a loss — and they have lost 8 of their last 12 games after a loss by at least four runs. The Yankees have also lost 10 of their last 13 road games after losing three of their last four games — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games in September. They counter with Cole who is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twelve starts. But while the right-hander has a 2.09 ERA at home in six starts, his ERA on the road rose to a 3.67 mark. His teams have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Cole pitching with the Total set at 7 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: While the Yankees were 19-9 at Yankee Stadium during the regular season, they were just 12-18 on the road while scoring only 4.2 Runs-Per-Game with a batting average of .220 along with a .311 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of 661. 25* MLB American League Game of the Month with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (932) versus the New York Yankees (931) listing both starting pitchers Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W2-D0-L0) remained undefeated so far for the 2020-21 English Premier League campaign with their 4-2 win over Burnley last Sunday. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) opened their EPL campaign last Monday with their 3-1 victory on the road at Wolverhampton.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was impressive on Monday to score three times against a Wolves team that led the EPL last season with just 27 non-penalty kick Big Chances conceded. Wolverhampton’s compact style makes them one of the most difficult teams to score against yet the Cityzens scored three times in their building at Molineaux. Now Man City turns home where they scored 57 times last season in 19 contests for a 3.0 goals-per-game scoring average. The underlying metrics support their offensive prowess at home as their expected goals (xG) were 2.67 xG per game at home at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last ten games at home, Man City has scored 26 goals. They are dealing with injuries. Both forwards, Gabriel Jesus, and Sergio Aguero are dealing with injuries. When both these forwards are out, manager Pep Guardiola usually places Raheem Sterling in the attacker role where he is comfortable playing (this is his role with the English national team). But what has me sold on the Over is that Guardiola plans to deploy midfielder Kevin DeBruyne higher up the pitch in an attacking position. DeBruyne is an assists-machine who also can score goals with his powerful kicks — it is just that he also helps the defense out when controlling the middle of the field. Phil Foden should also be in the Starting XI given these injuries — and he is a strong offensive player. But playing KDB higher up the pitch further exposes a vulnerable Man City defense. They allowed 37 Big Chances last season with teams being able to effectively counter their aggressive pressing tactics. The Cityzens are also missing some key defensive pieces in defensive midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and defenseman Aymeric LaPorte. Man City made some nice transfers in the offseason to help fortify their defense — but it may be too early to see those players join the pitch. This team is not likely to enjoy a clean sheet. Leicester City has already scored seven goals so far this season in their first two matches. Led by Jamie Vardy and his 23 goals last year, the Foxes had an impressive 1.89 expected goals mark in their nineteen matches on the road in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: I have concerns about the Leicester City defense this season. They lost defender Ben Chilwell in the transfer market to Chelsea in the offseason. To compound matters, they will be without holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi for a few months to injury. Ndidi is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world — and his absence last season directly related to the collapse of their hot start in the first half of the season. The Foxes should score on the counter-attack — but Man City should be good for 2-3 goals (at least) playing at home with DeBruyne tasked in an offensive role for this one. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30) hopes to stave off elimination tonight after getting upset in Game Four of this series to the Heat on Wednesday by a 112-109 score as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami now owns a 3-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Complacency has been the hobgoblin for this Boston team in this series. The Celtics are too often letting up in their intensity and focus. After falling behind by a 2-0 margin, they got Gordon Hayward back in Game Three who helped them with that game by a comfortable 117-106 score. And while many pundits commented on how Hayward was a series-changer with him being the right piece to counter the Miami zone defense, I worried about Boston’s determination after avoiding a disastrous 0-3 start to the series. And the Celtics came out flat on Wednesday. Jayson Tatum scored zero points while failing to get to the free-throw line even once in the first twenty-four minutes of the game. Boston went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 50-44 score — this was their first deficit at halftime since the opening round of these playoffs. If head coach Brad Stevens is going to accomplish just one thing tonight, it will be to get his team to come out with more fire. The Celtics are still outscoring Miami by +19 points in the 1st quarter of this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games away from home after an upset loss. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. And while Game Four finished above the 212 point Total, Boston has then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from after a game that finished Over the Total. The Celtics are outshooting and outrebounding the Heat in this series while also shooting better from behind the arc. The reason why both these teams have each scored exactly 441 points in this series is that Boston is turning the ball over which is giving Miami additional scoring chances. The Celtics are averaging 16.0 turnovers per game while coughing the ball up in 16.4% of their possessions in this series. The Heat are averaging only 11.3 turnovers per game which is helping them take 6 more shots per game than Boston. That’s the series. Only Cleveland had a worse turnover percentage during the regular season. Stevens should be able to impart the importance of Boston paying more attention to protecting the basketball. The Celtics turned the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions in the regular season. And Boston is scoring at a healthy 114.6 points per possession rate in this series when not turning the ball over. Hayward’s ability to knock down 3s to break the Miami zone defense still exists — the Celtics were +4.9 points per possession better with Hayward on the floor during the regular season. Boston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games away from home after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory. And while the last two games have finished Over the Total, the Heat have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from home after playing two straight Overs. Miami received a stellar effort from Tyler Herro who scored 37 points on Wednesday — and while I have appreciated that the former Kentucky Wildcat is emerging as a star, he is unlikely to replicate that performance tonight. The Heat also have an issue with Bam Adebayo not being at 100% with a wrist injury. While it looks like he will play, it is unclear how productive he can be.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games away from home when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (710) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-22) lost their first game in their last seven playoff contests with their 114-106 upset loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (55-35) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles slacked with their effort on defense on Tuesday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 54.8% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. After allowing Denver to score 93 points after the first three quarters, the Lakers tightened things up to limit the Nuggets to just 21 points in the final twelve minutes. LA was also out-rebounded by a 45 to 25 margin while pulling down an embarrassingly sparse four offensive boards. Anthony Davis did not bother to notch his first offensive rebound until the 4th quarter. This team has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being out-rebounded by at least ten boards in their last game. The Lakers’ effort was not as high as it has been in their six-game winning streak. But LeBron James and company should respond with a strong performance tonight as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning four of their last five games. The offensive prowess of this team has been consistent as they have shot at least 50% from the field in nine of their last eleven playoff games. Nine of their last ten playoff wins this postseason have been by more than 6 points — so when the Lakers win, they are also covering point spread expectations. And then there is James. In his career, James has seen his team take a 2-0 lead in the playoffs twenty-three times. It has been just eight times when James’ team then lost Game Three up 2-0 in the series. Only once in Game Four did James and his teammates then respond with a straight-up victory to seize the commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver has covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games away from home after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games away from home after a point spread win. Denver played one of their best games in the postseason Jamal Murray scoring 28 points with 12 rebounds and 12 assists while Nikola Jokic added 22 points along with 10 boards. And Jeramy Grant played perhaps his best playoff game ever with 26 points while outplaying a listless Anthony Davis. The Nuggets’ 54.8% shooting percentage was the mark in their last eleven games — and they have made at least 47.3% of their shots in six straight games. But Denver may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-21) has now won six games in a row in dramatic fashion with Anthony Davis nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointers to seal a 105-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (54-35) is now down 2-0 to the Lakers in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: An encouraging aspect that the Nuggets can take from Game Two of this series was their improved play on defense in the final 24 minutes of that game. Denver limited the Lakers to just 45 points in the second half while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.95 Points-Per-Possession rate. Los Angeles missed 15 of their 21 shots from behind that arc in the second half. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Denver’s last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while that game finished just below the closing total of 209, the Nuggets have played a decisive 55 of their last 93 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Denver has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by no more than 3 points. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a victory where they did cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in each of their six victories in a row — but they have played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, LA has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. This Lakers’ team remains relatively rested after taking care of Houston in five games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when not playing more than three games in the last ten days.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have lost all four meetings between these two teams in 2020 — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (972) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios. THE SITUATION: Chicago (31-21) saw their five-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 8-1 loss to the Twins in Game Two of this series. Minnesota (32-22) had lost four of their last five games before yesterday’s victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has rebounded to win 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubs have still won 5 of their last 7 games at home as the favorite — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games with the Total set at 7 to 8.5. Chicago has also won 24 of their last 33 games at Wrigley Field against American League teams. They give the ball to Darvish who is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in ten starts. Darvish has not allowed more than three earned runs in all ten starts this season. The right-hander has been very tough at home where he owns a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193 in eight starts as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average on the road. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 home games with Darvish pitching as a favorite priced at -110 or higher — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games with Darvish pitching at night. He faces a slumping Twins team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a batting average of .211 along with a .290 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .721. Minnesota has lost 8 of their last 11 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Twins have also lost 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. Additionally, Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They counter with Berrios who is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in ten starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.67 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in five starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.76 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .311 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Twins have lost 8 straight road games with Berrios pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (972) with the money-line versus the Minnesota Twins (971) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Jose Berrios. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday as they defeated the Clippers by a 111-98 score as a 9-point underdog to force this Game Seven. Los Angeles (56-20) has blown a lead of at least 15 points in the last two contests in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Apparently, it is the sense of imminent failure that motivates this Nuggets team to play harder on defense. Five of Denver’s seven victories this postseason have come in elimination games. They held the Clippers to just 41% shooting on Sunday in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games — this performance was highlighted by them getting a defensive stop in eleven straight possessions in the second half. The Nuggets also nailed 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in the last seven contests. Denver has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games are a double-digit win. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games are a point spread victory. And in their last 15 playoff games with the series tied, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last fourteen contests after allowing Denver can 54.1% of their shots. Head coach Doc Rivers will likely shorten his bench tonight which means less time for Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams who are offensive spark plugs off the bench but who have liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have only covered the point spread once in the last five games in this series — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home after not covering the point spread in their last two games.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 23 of their last 33 games away from home Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss when favored by at least 7 points. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (0-0-0) returns to the pitch after tying to 3rd place in the English Premier League last month with Manchester United. Brighton (0-0-0) staved off relegation in Project Restart this summer with 41 points which were seven points clear but still finished only 15th in the EPL table.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea made a dynamic splash into the transfer market after the EPL season finally concluded. They had already signed defensive midfielder Hakim Ziyech in the winter period and they fortified their leaky defense with a nice signing of Thiago Silva from Paris-Saint Germain but he is not likely to start yet for this team today. But the signings that drew more attention were the blockbuster deals that brought over Timo Werner and Kai Havertz from the German Bundesliga. These two young offensive dynamos combined to score 52 goals in the Bundesliga last season. Werner will play the attacker position where he thrived for RB Leipzig. Werner has been on my radar since starring for the German national team in the 2017 Confederations Cup — he is the heir apparent to Robert Lewandowski who was the top scorer for Bayern Munich’s Champions League victories club last month. Werner will be a Golden Boot contender this season. But it is Havertz who may still be the more exciting player. At 6’2, he is a matchup nightmare who played in the midfield for Bayer Leverkusen but can also take on the attacker role. These two join a group that was already a high-scoring team in the EPL. The Blues scored 69 goals last year but their expected goals were +9.3 higher at 78.3 xG. Adding two technicians to the mix like Werner and Havertz will help get the actual goals closer to the expected goals mark. Christian Pulisic is dealing with a knock and not likely to play — but Chelsea has an abundance of riches in offensive talent even without him or Willian who they let go sign with Arsenal. The Blues will miss holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic for this contest which will hurt their defensive presence. Defense is an issue — while they scored ten goals in their five road games after the restart, they conceded fourteen goals in those matches. Brighton should score in this one. They only scored 39 goals last year but their xG was +8.42 goals higher at a 47.24 xG clip. They averaged 1.40 xG per match. But they also had an expected goals allowed mark of 60.42 which was +6.42 goals more than the 54 they allowed last year.

FINAL TAKE: The Seagulls allowed 12 goals in their five home matches after the return to action in July. The offensive talent for Chelsea is outstanding — and Werner has already established chemistry with Havertz playing for German national teams over the years. I do worry about the team chemistry for the Blues when it comes to stopping their opponents. The Chelsea issues on defense will likely continue — and their hotshot goalkeeper they just signed will not be on the pitch yet for this one. 25* English Premier League Monday Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-25) returns to the court tonight after defeating Dallas in six games with their 111-97 win over the Mavericks as a 9-point favorite on August 30th. Denver (50-30) outlasted Utah in their seven-game series that culminated with their 80-78 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Look for the Nuggets to suffer an emotional letdown after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Jazz. Don’t be surprised if this team looks tired tonight. Denver played their hardest game on defense in the bubble on Tuesday — they held Utah to just 38.0% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games after a straight-up win. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning at least two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles will be rested and ready for this game — and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when playing with at least three days of rest including covering the point spread in nine of these last twelve situations. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Clippers have covered the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Doc Rivers has indicated that Patrick Beverley will likely take the court tonight after missing time with his calf injury. He gives the team a big boost on defense. It will probably take a game for the Nuggets to adjust to the new challenge of facing this Clippers team. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Islanders (26) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (25) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (45-25-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-3 loss in overtime. Philadelphia (50-26-7) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. This game will be played on neutral ice at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ISLANDERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York should rebound tonight to win this series. The Islanders have still won 9 of their last 13 playoff games when leading in the series. This team displayed grit by rallying from a 3-1 deficit with under five minutes to go in the third period to force overtime. They won the expected goals battle by a 3.11 to 2.93 xG score — and they generated six more high danger scoring chances than the Flyers. New York has scored at least three goals in six straight games — and they have then won 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. This is a team that enjoyed a seventeen-game winning streak during the regular season before injuries slowed them down. The loss of top-line defenseman Adam Pelech obviously hurt before the injury to fourth-line center Casey Cizakas who played an important defensive role for the team. Getting both those players back helps — and the Islanders made some significant moves at the trade deadline by filling their hole at center by adding Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Ottawa and Andy Greene from New Jersey to add depth on defense. Pageau scored the game-tying goal yesterday and has fortified this team by anchoring the third-line. Trotz rolls four lines and his team’s dedication to their aggressive forechecking style of play makes them consistent from game-to-game. Philadelphia still has a big hill to climb to win this series — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win. The Flyers have also lost 8 of their last 12 games when playing on the road for their third game in five days.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries loom large for this game. The Islanders’ center Mat Barzal is listed as questionable after taking a hit in Game Five — but he is trending up to play tonight. The bigger issue is the injury that Philly’s Sean Couturier suffered on Tuesday — he may not be able to return tonight. That would be a huge loss as he is the team’s best player and one of the best two-way centers in the game. New York has won 15 of their last 24 games when avenging a same-season loss so expect a strong performance from them. 25* NHL 2nd Round Metropolitan Division Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Islanders (26) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (25). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (47-31) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 104-100 upset win over the Rockets as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (47-31) ha lost three of their last four games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets blew their opportunity to close out this series on Monday despite making 45.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The pressure of the playoffs tends to play a role in making all the 3s this team launches not fall quite as much. Every statistical moment is not the same — pressure plays a role in these games despite the protestations from the analytics community. It was their last Game Seven against Golden State back in the spring of 2018 where the Rockets missed twenty-seven straight 3-point shots. Houston has played 17 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series including six straight Unders. They also have played 18 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has seen the Under go a decisive 48-21-1 in their last 70 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 28 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Finding consistent scoring options for head coach Billy Donovan has been an issue outside of Chris Paul who scored 15 of his 28 points on Monday in the 4th quarter. Donovan is still starting Lu Dort alongside Steven Adams despite their liabilities on offense. When they are on the floor in this series the Thunder are scoring at just a 66.7 points per 100 possession rate — the Rockets are comfortable playing off both of them to pack the paint. But they are giving Donovan defense as Houston is scoring at just an 89.3 points per 100 possession rate when those two are on the court. I don’t see Donovan moving away from starting this combo tonight.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home when looking to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (20) versus the Colorado Avalanche (19) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (45-30-8) looks to bounce back from their 6-3 loss to the Avalanche on Monday. Colorado (50-24-9) has won two of the last three games in this series but still trail by a 3-2 margin. This game will be played on neutral ice in Edmonton.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Dallas was caught flat and very sloppy on defense at the beginning of this game as they allowed the Avalanche to race out to a 5-0 lead in the opening period. Look for the Stars to respond with a strong effort tonight. Dallas has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least three goals. The Stars have also won 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Dallas is a team that was always much better than their frontline numbers from the regular season suggests. The Stars were only ahead of Detroit with a 1.96 goals-per-game average at even strength during the regular season despite their expected goals mark at five-on-five being at 2.42 expected goals per game at even strength. Regression was bound to finally take hold for this team to start seeing more of their shots get into the back of the net. Head coach Rick Bowness has also had the defense play more aggressively in their opponent’s territory since the restart — and the blue-liners have responded with nine goals along with 27 assists. Over their last six games, the Stars have scored 29 goals. This remains a team that has won the expected goal (xG) battle in eight of their last eleven games with this Avalanche team. I am not sure who will be the goaltender for Dallas tonight after Ben Bishop was the surprise starter for them in Game Five. Bishop allowed four goals on nineteen shots on Monday but his defense deserves much of that blame. I suspect Bishop gets the call tonight as he is one of the best in the business when on his game. Perhaps he was rusty on Monday — but he had a 2.50 Goals-Against-Average along with a .920 save percentage in the regular season so he is likely an upgrade of Anton Khudobin who has played fine in his absence. Colorado may be vulnerable to exhaling just a bit in this game after staving off elimination with their convincing win on Monday. The Avalanche have lost 16 of their last 25 games after scoring at last six goals in their last game. Colorado has scored at least four goals in three straight games — but they have allowed the Stars to score at least three goals in all five games in this series. The Avalanche have lost 16 of their last 24 games after playing at least two straight games where at least three goals were scored — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games after playing at least three straight games where both teams scored at least three goals were scored. Additionally, Colorado has lost 14 of their last 19 games after playing at least three straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight games where at least eight combined goals were scored. The Aves have goaltending problems of their own — but it is much worse after they had to rely on Michael Hutchinson on Monday. He played as good as could be expected after stopping 31 of 34 shots — but there is a reason that they picked him up the scrap heap earlier this season after Toronto cut him outright. Hutchinson had -6.91 saves below expectation before Monday’s game. He may have to play again tonight with Phillipp Grubauer out and backup Johan Francouz — who had been struggling — deemed unfit to play in Game Five.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has won 7 of their last 9 games away from home when looking to avenge a loss by more than one goal. 25* NHL 2nd Round Playoff Game of the Month with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (20) versus the Colorado Avalanche (19). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset victory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are a defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. But that does make the Bavarians vulnerable in the back themselves. Lyon had scoring chances on Wednesday — they generated 1.74 expected goals despite failing to put the ball in the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain will likely take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They averaged 2.41 expected goals per game in their Champions League contests. They were trailing 1-0 late in their Quarterfinals match against Atalanta — but getting Kylian Mbappe back on the pitch who did not start because of an injury made all the difference for Les Parisians as he jumpstarted the PSG attack with the necessary two late goals to steal that game. Mbappe was back in full force than last Saturday in helping to lead PSG to their easy 3-0 victory over a strong defensive side in RB Leipzig. And all this commentary about PSG has yet to mention Neymar who has the opportunity in this match to make the case that he is the best player in the world. Neymar may be “due” to score a goal after generating 1.68 expected goals in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals without getting the ball in the back of the net.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams with dynamic offensive attacks. Sometimes these championship games tend to be lower-scoring affairs with both teams playing cautiously — but that is a style that neither team is most comfortable playing. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Despite the final score, Barcelona was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They managed only six non-penalty shots in the game with zero Big Chances representing a scoring opportunity with at least a success rate of 35% or better. Frankly, I kept the jury out for this Barca team waiting to see what lineup manager Quique Setien would deploy with the La Liga season completed. The Blaugranas could put out a very intriguing XI if Setien were to go young and lean on rising stars like Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati to play alongside Lionel Messi who is still fantastic. Instead, Setien stayed committed to his aging veterans who have lost a step or two (or three). Puig did not even play last week! Setien’s lineup, tactics, and even his demeanor were puzzling last week — he may be resigned to his impending resignation after taking over for Ernesto Valverde in January. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG. Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 xG while holding these opponents to just 0.72 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is one of five teams in the top-five European professional leagues to generated a +1.0xG per 90 minutes or better ratio. The four other teams to pull that feat were Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, and Atalanta with all four of those teams in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Barcelona had just a +0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season for comparisons' sake. The Blaugranas have beaten Bayern Munich only twice in their last ten matches against them with six losses including a 7-0 drubbing in 2013 after Barca endured a similar turbulent season where they were clearly on the decline. Sounds familiar. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals *A-List* Special with Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage when they defeated Liverpool on the road by a 3-2 score on March 11th in the second leg of their Round of 16 showdown. RB Leipzig advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event the day before on March 10th when they defeated Tottenham by a 3-0 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Handicapping the German Bundesliga closely this summer convinced me that RB Leipzig is a bit of a paper tiger. The Red Bulls load up against the bottom teams in the league — but they only registered one victory against the top four teams in the standings consisting go Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Monchengladbach. While manager Julian Nagelsmann has his team play tight defense, RB Leipzig can struggle to score goals. They have scored only two goals in their last three contests — and they have managed just eight goals in their last six contests across all competitions. They scored just once in their last match in a friendly against Wolfsburg that ended in a 1-1 draw. To compound matters, they will be playing this match without their best offensive talent in Timo Werner as he signed a big contract with Chelsea and decided to begin training with his new team. The Red Bulls will miss his 32 goals across all competitions this year. Rust may be a factor as well with the Bundesliga concluding on June 27th — RB Leipzig has only had that one friendly two weeks ago since that time. The cohesion of the Red Bulls’ defense was already starting to wane towards the end of the season as they have not had a clean sheet in their last four contests. This team settled for too many draws during the league play. They only lost four matches in the Bundesliga which was the same as league champs Bayern Munich — but their 12 draws illuminated their inability to put away lesser teams in the league. The loss of Werner does not inspire confidence that this team will discover a clutch gene. Atletico Madrid proved their mettle by upsetting the reigning Champions League titleholders in Liverpool in the Round of 16. Los Colchoneros play dogged defense that stifles the will of their opponents. They held their La Liga opponents to just 0.97 expected goals (xG) — and their Champions League opponents this year managed just 1.11 xG. The victory over Liverpool jumpstarted the confidence of this team as they returned from the stoppage of play by going unbeaten in their eleven La Liga matches with seven victories while outscoring those opponents by a 20 to 6 margin. Atletico Madrid enters this match undefeated in their last eighteen matches. A tactical move also made this team much better over that span as manager Diego Simeone’s decision to move Marcos Llorente up top to serve as a second-striker ignited the offensive attack of the Red and Whites. This is a very confident team.

FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be happy to be here at this point in their campaign with it being the young organization’s first appearance in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Atletico Madrid has been in the Quarterfinals of this event in five of the last seven years while reaching the Semifinals in 2016 and 2017. Simeone is one of the best managers in the world — and he is eyeing his first Finals opportunity with this team. In what should be a defensive struggle, look for the Atletico Madrid counterattack to create too many scoring chances for RB Leipzig to keep up. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210) in the second-leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the first-leg of this duel at Stamford Bridge by a 3-0 score back on February 25th. Chelsea now has to travel to Allianz Arena in Munich needing to both upset the Bavarians while winning by at least three goals to win advance to the Quarterfinals next week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: A theoretical 3-0 Chelsea victory would force penalty kicks with the aggregate score being 3-3 with both teams scoring three goals on the road (the first tiebreaker). But it is highly unlikely that the Blues will shutout this explosive Bayern Munich side. The Bavarians averaged 2.80 expected goals per game in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal domestic contests this season which is the second-highest mark of any team playing in one of the top-five European Leagues (PSG leads in that metric). Bayern Munich has scored at least four goals in five of their last ten competitive matches (non-friendlies). Manager Hansi Flick has indicated that his top players will take part in this match despite the big lead from the first leg since he needs to build up their fitness for their likely Quarterfinals match next week. Defense has been a big concern for this Chelsea team all season — they had an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.23 xGA this season. The Blues are also missing some of their key defensive pieces for this contest as well. Not only did Chelsea blow a 1-0 lead against Arsenal last Sunday in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the English FA Cup Final but they also suffered a number of costly injuries. Defenseman Cesar Azpilicueta was injured in that match and will not be able to play this afternoon. N’bolo Kante did not play last week with an injury that may keep him out in this one. Even worse, defenseman Marco Alonso and defensive midfielder Jorginho are suspended for this game given yellow cards. Chelsea is also missing Christian Pulisic and Pedro who got injured last week but manager Frank Lampard still has the services of forward Olivier Giroud. With the goalie issues Lampard has with both Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero both underperforming when compared to typical replacement level keepers. The Blues will need to play aggressively to have much of a chance.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are likely to score in this contest with Chelsea only being blanked once in their last fifteen matches and Bayern Munich having played seventeen straight competitive matches where they scored at least one goal. The Bavarians have seen at least four combined goals in six of their last ten competitive matches as well. The Blues are not a team that will park the bus. Even when getting shutout in the first leg of this showdown, they generated 1.16 xG while allowing Bayern Munich to register 3.12 xG. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (62) versus the Vancouver Canucks (61) in Game Four of their Western Conference Playoff Qualifying Round. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (36-29-7) looks to stave off elimination tonight after losing Game Three of this series yesterday by a 3-0 score. Vancouver (38-28-6) has won the last two games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE MINNESOTA WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Wild should respond with a strong effort tonight. They have won 4 straight games after a loss by at least three goals — and they have won 4 straight games after being shutout. Additionally, Minnesota has won 36 of their last 52 games after losing two straight games — and they have won 12 of their last 17 games away from home after losing two in a row. The Wild need to get their offense going after failing to score on their last thirteen Power Play chances over the last two games. Minnesota should be much better on the Power Play — they ranked 2nd in the NHL with their Power Play unit in the last twenty-five games of the regular season. And they are facing a Canucks’ team that was just 26th in the regular season in expected goals allowed on their Power Play kill unit. The Wild have won 5 straight games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And while Minnesota has allowed six goals in these last two games, Minnesota has won 27 of their last 41 games after allowing at least three goals in two straight games. Head coach Dean Evason may turn to veteran goaltender Devan Dubnyk to be between the pipes tonight. And this team may be without defenseman Ryan Suter who did not play in the last seven minutes yesterday after blocking a puck. But this is a veteran club with plenty of playoff experience — they had in eight straight postseasons before missing the playoffs last year. Look for leadership to come from 35-year old Zach Parise and 34-year old Eric Staal along with the 36-year old Mikko Koivu and 32-year old Mats Zuccarello who have tons of playoff experience. This is a team that has still won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite. Vancouver has some very nice young talent in 20-year old Elias Pettersson, 20-year old Quinn Hughes, and 23-year old Brock Boeser — but this trio is in their first playoff series so they have no experience in trying to close out a playoff series. This franchise has not been in the playoffs since 2016 back in the Sedin brothers era. And this is an organization that has lost 10 of their last 12 playoff games as an underdog. Additionally, the Canucks have lost 6 of their last 7 games after shutting out their opponent in their last game. Furthermore, Vancouver has lost 5 of their last 7 games when playing without rest — and they have lost 15 of their last 23 games when playing their straight game on the road in two days.

FINAL TAKE: The Canucks were dominant when playing at home during the regular season with a 22-9-4 record — but they were just 14-18-2 on the road. If there is a benefit from playing without rest, it is that Minnesota can quickly get the bad taste out of their mouth and completely change the tenor of this series with a climactic final game on Sunday. Look for the Wild’s veteran core to force one more game in this series. 25* NHL Playoff Qualifying Round Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Wild (62) versus the Vancouver Canucks (61). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). THE SITUATION: Everton (W13-D10-L14) looks to end their season on a high note after a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United on Monday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L22) has lost nineteen of their last twenty-six matches after their 2-0 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is playing for the EPL lives in this match as they begin the day in 19th place in the table. They are three points behind both Aston Villa and Watford — so the Cherries need a victory while seeing one of those teams lose to then stave off relegation. The problem for manager Eddie Howe’s team is that they have been in this desperation situation since Project Restart yet they are just W1-D1-L6 in those contests while being outscored by a 17 to 8 margin. Bournemouth has lost nine of their last twelve matches where they have been outscored by a 26 to 12 margin — and they have lost twelve of their last seventeen contests. The Cherries have been even worse on the road where they have lost twelve of their last thirteen contests. A porous defense is the biggest problem for this team that plays aggressively but lacks a “Plan B”. They have surrendered 40 goals in their last twenty league matches. They have also given up 34 goals in their seventeen road matches in the EPL — and they have an expected goal allowed mark of 1.92 (xGA). To compound matters, Howe is dealing with a depleted defensive backline with Adam Smith and Nathan Ake dealing with injuries. Howe hopes both can play — Ake is their best defender but may not be able to recover from the groin injury that has kept him out the last two matches. The Cherries have lost fifteen of their twenty-five matches against non-Big Six sides this season — and they have lost nine of their twelve road games against non-Big Six teams while only scoring eight goals in those games and conceding 21 times. Everton played one of their best matches since the restart in spoiling Sheffield United’s Europa League ambitions with that victory on the road. The Toffees have conceded only seven goals in their eight matches since the restart. Motivation is a question with this team — but manager Carlo Ancelotti read this team the riot act a week ago after a bad 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton. Everton has not lost since. Not only does Ancelotti want to continue to see a consistent effort but he is building for next year where he expects this team to finish in the Top-Six. Ancelotti is a serious manager with three UEFA Champions League titles with Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since he took over in December, the Toffees have lost only five times — and these were all to quality opponents in Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and the Wolves. Everton has the 7th best record in the league since Ancelotti took over. This team has also been tough to beat at home in Goodison Park where they have lost only once since September. The Toffees are unbeaten in their nine home matches under Ancelotti with five victories. And they are W7-D3-L2 in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six sides this season. Everton is also averaging a solid 1.62 expected goals (xG) at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: Everton will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture back on September 15th. The Toffees have won all of their four opportunities to host the Cherries in their history while scoring 12 goals in those contests. Bournemouth must win this match — and that means they will be playing very aggressively. Look for Everton to score in the counterattack against a vulnerable and depleted Cherries’ backline. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may even get into the scoring act as he has shown signs of life after a dismal display since the restart. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with the Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) has World Series aspirations after losing in the ALDS to Houston last year in five games after a strong 96-66 regular season campaign. Toronto (0-0) looks to improve on a dismal 67-95 mark last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay was outstanding at home at Tropicana Field last year where they had won 20 of their last 26 home games. They also won 14 of their last 18 games with the total set in the 7 to 8.5 range — and they won 11 of their last 14 games against fellow AL East opponents. Furthermore, the Rays have won 9 of their last 11 opening games to a new series. Tampa Bay lost outfield Tommy Pham in the offseason but they hope to make up for his offense with the additions of Manuel Margot, Jose Martinez, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo who banged 95 home runs in the Japanese League over the last three seasons. They give the ball to Morton who was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-three starts last year. The right-hander did his best work at home where he enjoyed a 2.59 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .194 as compared to his 3.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .238. Morton has become an ace even at 36-years old as he has decreased his reliance on his sinker to throw his dominant curveball more often while relying on his veteran savvy in place of the declining velocity with his never-elite fastball. The Rays have won 22 of their last 35 home games with Morton on the mound. Morton should have success against this Blue Jays team that has lost 9 of their last 13 road games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost a decisive 52 of their last 76 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Toronto is in a state of disarray as they await making a final decision regarding where they will play their home games in this abbreviated season after the Canadian government prohibited them to travel back-and-forth from the United States given COVID-19 concerns. This is a clear rebuilding season for the Blue Jays who await the promotion of their fireballing pitching prospect Nate Pearson. Toronto has lost 38 of their last 56 road games as an underdog. They also have lost 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have lost 13 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Ryu will be making his first start for the team after he was signed in the offseason from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The left-hander was 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in twenty-nine starts last year. The deeper metrics were not nearly as bullish on Ryu as those frontline numbers suggest with both his ERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.77 and 3.32. Ryu was dominant at home last year where he sported a 1.93 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in fourteen starts — but those numbers rose to a 2.72 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253.

FINAL TAKE: Morton has thrived against the Blue Jays in his career with a 2.39 ERA in his six career starts. The Rays have won 15 of their last 21 games against Toronto as well. 25* MLB AL East Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (956) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (955) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W18-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches after settling for a nil-nil draw on the road at Real Sociedad on Thursday. Valencia (W14-D11-L12) has won two of their last three matches with their 1-0 victory over Espanyol on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla’s strong play over the second half of the season has been validated by the deeper metrics as they have generated 1.61 expected goals (xG) over their last fourteen matches with just 1.13 expected goals allowed (xGA) over that span for a strong +0.48 expected goal differential (xGD). They had won their previous four matches before settling for the draw with a Real Sociedad still fighting to ensure they qualify for next fall’s Europa League. Los Nervionenses still have things to play for this season. While being cemented in at least 4th place in the La Liga table ensures they qualify for next year’s Champions League, passing Atletico Madrid for 3rd place not only would be a feather in their cap but also affords them to bypass the initial qualifying match hurdle that 4th place teams must take. Sevilla needs a win with a loss in Atletico Madrid’s match with Real Sociedad (which is a possibility) to seize 3rd place. Los Nervionenses also have the second leg of their Round of 16 Europa League showdown with Roma coming up next month so manager Julen Lopetegui will want to keep his group in form. Sevilla have won five of their ten league matches in the return while only surrendering five goals over that span. While the Andalusians were held scoreless on Thursday, they had scored in 27 of their previous 28 La Liga matches. They have also registered a clean sheet in ten of their last twelve league games. They return home to Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches while winning their last two contests. They have allowed just 14 goals in their 18 home games in league play with these opponents generating a meager 0.89 xG. Sevilla also tends to feast on the lesser teams in La Liga when playing at home: they are W9-D5-L1 in their last fifteen home games against teams below them on the table while scoring 24 goals and conceding just 12 times. Valencia has won two of their last three matches since manager Albert Celades was sacked after losing control of the locker room since the return to play. Voro returned as a caretaker for this team for the third time in his managerial career to offer some renewed stability (despite him being the team’s third manager this season — but this has been an organization rife with drama with players bickering with each other and the owner’s daughter taking to social media to chastise their fans. Defections have not helped matters for this team that competed in the Champions League earlier in the season. Top center back Ezequiel Garay left the team with an expiring contract this summer and forward Rodrigo is out the season with an injury. Knocks also have Voro resorting to a third-stringer at left-back in his starting XI today. Valencia defeated Espanyol on Thursday despite losing the expected goals battle by a 1.53 to 1.20 mark to the already relegated last-place team in the league. Los Che has now lost the xG duel in eight of their last ten matches since the return which suggests they have been fortunate to of W3-D2-L5 over that span. They go back on the road where they have lost eleven times this season while losing eight of their last ten matches while going winless over the span. Valencia has allowed their opponents to generate 17.72 xG in those last ten road games while producing just 4.96 xG in those matches. For the season, Los Che averages 0.95 xG along with a 1.90 xGA on the road in La Liga with that -0.95 xGD mark being bottom-five in the league. Valencia has been shutout in four of their last five games on the road — and they have scored just five times in their last seven matches overall.

FINAL TAKE: Sevilla did rest their key starters in the first half at Real Sociedad on Thursday which helps explain why they did not score. Those rested starters should be on the pitch for this final league match. Valencia is still technically alive to qualify for the Europa League but they need a victory and then plenty of help to pull off that feat. Frankly avoiding rebellion and complete implosion was the immediate goal for Voro when he took over. Getting a result on the road against a quality and professional team like Sevilla is quite another. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea comes off a 1-0 win at home over Norwich City on Tuesday. While the Blues scored just one goal against the already-relegated Canaries (who were parking the bus in that match — they had only two shots in the entire match), the deeper metrics suggest that they were unfortunate with their expected goals mark of 2.77 xG. With the return to health of Christian Pulisic, Chelsea has been transformed into a potent scoring team that is energized when the 20-year old American is on the pitch. He has formed a nice combination with fellow midfielder Willian along with their veteran forward Olivier Giroud. The Blues have scored 13 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart — and they are averaging a robust 2.34 expected goals (xG) per game. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. And while Man United has allowed only six goals in the twelve league matches they have played since Fernandes joined the team, their expected goals allowed (xGA) during that span double to a 12.45 mark. The Red Devils’ defense is not quite as good as the numbers indicate (thirteen clean sheets in their last nineteen games across all competitions). The only two teams they have played since the restart ranked in the top-ten in the EPL in scoring have been Tottenham and Southampton and both have scored against them. They are also undermanned on defense for this match with Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams both dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times this season with both EPL matches along with an English League Cup match in October — and Man United scored eight goals in those three matches. While I do not expect the Blues’ defense to play much better in this fourth contest, they should score more goals with Pulisic integrated into the offense. In their only match in 2020 back in February, Chelsea peppered the Red Devils with 17 shots and a 1.36 xG mark despite being failing to score in that contest. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D7-L6) is unbeaten in their last five matches after they eked out a 1-1 draw at home versus Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L21) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they lost at Manchester City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is the surprising favorite in this match for two reasons. First, the Cherries are desperate for the win since they need those three points in their chase to catch Watford for 17th place in the EPL table to avoid relegation. While Bournemouth may be motivated, their sense of urgency does not replace talent or cohesion on the pitch. The Cherries have been in the danger zone of being relegated since Project Restart — yet this motivation did not inspire quality efforts in a 4-1 loss at home to Newcastle United nor a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace in the last month. On paper, their narrow loss to the previous two-time defending champions in Man City along with a 4-1 win against a Leicester City side who begin this match week 37 tied with Manchester United for 4th place in the table along with a 0-0 draw against a traditional Big Six opponent at Tottenham gives the appearance that manager Eddie Howe has found some answers late in the season. Well, let’s talk about those results. That nil-nil draw with the Spurs was a disgusting display on both sides particularly for a Tottenham group that failed to register even one big chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. The Spurs were tired playing their third game in six days — and they were lackadaisical against a Cherries team that had the worst statistical defense in the league since the return at that time while allowing nine combined goals in their previous two matches. Leicester City then dominated them in the first half of their next match — before apparently getting high on their own supply at halftime as they came out sloppy and listless. A terrible error by goaltender Kasper Schmeichel allowed Junior Stanislas to tie the match on a penalty kick — and then Dominic Solanke scored just a minute later after a lack of focus defensive error. The Foxes’ Caglar Soyuncu then kicked Solanke in frustration after scoring that goal which earned him a red card while giving Bournemouth an 11-versus-10 advantage on the pitch from which they scored those final two goals. The NBC-Sports Network pundits wished to credit Howe for inspiring his team for the rally — but I think all credit/blame goes to Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers for letting his team return to the field with such a lack of intensity. The Cherries then faced a Man City team that did not start Kevin DeBruyne (who got the entire match off), Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and Aymeric LaPorte to rest them for their upcoming FA Cup Semifinals match on Saturday. The Cityzens still raced to a 2-0 lead in the first 39 minutes of that match before hitting cruise control. David Brooks scored a late goal in the 88th minute to make the final score appear closer than it felt. So, let bettors think those results represent a late resurgence. This remains a team that has only generated 15 points in the league since November. Bournemouth has lost eighteen of their last twenty-five matches — and they won only one of their last eleven matches while getting outscored by a 24 to 12 margin and losing eight those contests. The Cherries have been an aggressive team playing with a frenetic pace under Howe’s tenure — but forward Joshua King has been lost since the return to play while his partner up top in Callum Wilson has been so ineffective that he did not start on Wednesday. With these two struggling, Howe has not had a “Plan B” for his team. And the defense that has always been the weakness for this team has been dreadful. The Cherries have allowed 38 goals in their last nineteen matches with just one clean sheet in that embarrassing display by the Spurs. They have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Furthermore, to make matters even worse, their defender in center back Nathan Ake, is out for this match (and likely the season) with an injury. Southampton is W3-D3-L1 in project restart which places them tied with Everton in 11th place. Using the expected goals metric, the Saints rise to 8th place in expected points (xPTS). This is a quality team that has found themselves after an embarrassing 9-0 loss at home to Leicester City. Hassenhuttl stuck to his guns regarding an aggressive high-press — and a move from a back-four to a back-three defensive alignment after the international break in the winter triggered a W7-D2-L3 run. Southampton upset Man City on July 5th and they have upset both 3rd place Chelsea and 4th place Leicester City on the road. The Saints have played much better away from their home at Saint Mary’s as their 28 points on the road are tied for the 4th most — and the metrics indicate this is not a fluke since their xPTS rise to a 29.40 mark. Southampton has won the expected goals (xG) battle in their four matches on the road since the restart with a W2-D2-L0 mark where they outscored their home hosts by a 9-4 margin. Over their last ten road games, they are W6-D2-L2 with nineteen goals and just thirteen goals allowed. Additionally, they are W7-D2-L2 in their last eleven road matches against non-Big Six opponents while scoring twenty goals and allowing just ten goals. If there has been a weakness with this team, it has been on defense — but they have allowed only seven goals in their matches in Project Restart.

FINAL TAKE: The metrics scream Southampton in this match. At this point in the season, the concern with backing the Saints regards to their possible lack of motivation in this match since they are stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but eliminated from Europa League qualification. Yet I see several reasons why I expect the Saints to be locked-in for this match. First, they are building momentum for next fall under Hasenhuttl who signed to a four-year extension before the return to play this spring. Second, the team would love to help Danny Ings earn a Golden Boot which remains an outside possibility with his 20 goals which is second best but three behind Jamie Vardy. Third, Southampton is playing with revenge on their mind after a 3-1 loss at home to the Cherries in the reverse fixture back on September 20th. Fourth, the Saints would relish the chance to send their south coast English rivals back to the Championship League with a victory. Bournemouth cannot settle for the one point with a draw with just one more game left for the 2019-20 season. Don’t be surprised if Southampton steals a victory late with Ings scoring in a counter-attack (but take the Saints plus the goal-line for some very valuable insurance). But a Cherries loss would be devastating to their ambition to avoid relegation — and Southampton would be very happy to deliver that blow. 25* English Premier League Underdog of the Year with Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester City reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 2-0 victory at Newcastle United. Arsenal joined them that day in the FA Cup Semifinals when they defeated Sheffield United on the road by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Some bettors may be tempted to think that Arsenal will be dangerous underdogs in this contest after they upset English Premier League champions, Liverpool, on Wednesday by a 2-1 score also on their home pitch. The eye test and the deeper analytics of that match tell a different story. Liverpool played sloppy with a pair of defensive mistakes (including a rare error by superstar center back Virgil Van Dijk who might have made his first mistake all season) which allowed the Gunners their two goals. Arsenal managed only three shots in that match which was their lowest number in an EPL match since Opta starting tracking that statistic in 1992. They managed just 0.78 expected goals (xG) in that contest while allowing Liverpool to generate 2.51 xG — so they were very fortunate to pull that upset. Those metrics were eerily close to their previous EPL match against Tottenham where they lost by a 2-1 score while losing the xG battle by a 2.05-0.72 xG mark — and that is not a very good Spurs team right now. First-year manager Mikel Arteta has shifted the tactics of his team since taking over in December to have them play a defensive-oriented pragmatic attack which is the style of play many smaller teams embrace. Arteta needed to do this because Arsenal lacks quality talent in their backline defense. These cosmetic changes have helped as the Gunners have allowed just ten goals in their nine games since Project Restart. But these tactics have derailed their offensive attack. They are averaging a mere 9.3 shots per match in the EPL in their eight matches since the return which is the 5th lowest in the league. They are also generating only 0.9 big chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate per match — and their xG in their last eight EPL matches is 1.13. Arsenal is 9th in the EPL with 53 points yet the expected goals metric projects that mark should be just 43.34 based on expected points (xPTS). The Gunners are also overachieving at home at Emirates Stadium where their 33 points from a W9-D6-L3 mark in league play is tempered by just 24.15 xPTS which is 8th worst in the EPL. Man City is W6-D0-L2 in their eight EPL matches since the return with the highest xPTS mark over that span. They come off a 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Wednesday which may look listless at first glance — but keep in mind that manager Pep Guardiola rested his key players in that match. Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, and Eric Garcia did not start this match while lynchpins Kevin DeBruyne and Aymeric LaPorte did not play at all to rest and prepare for this contest. Man City is disappointed to not pull off a three-peat with EPL titles — but they can still achieve a historic season by retaining their FA Cup national title before winning the European Championship League which is a feat they have not accomplished under Guardiola’s stewardship. And while they have “only” 75 points in the EPL this season, the xPTS raise that mark to 80.98 which is higher than even Liverpool’s xPTS. The Cityzens have missed LaPorte anchoring their defense as he has spent much of the year injured. But since his return, Man City has shutout eight of their last thirteen opponents — and this includes six clean sheets in their nine contests in Project Restart.

FINAL TAKE: Man City has dominated Arsenal as of late — they have won the last seven encounters between these two teams with all of these victories by more than one goal. The Cityzens have scored at least three goals in six of those contests — and they have five clean sheets against the Gunners in those games. Overall, Man City has outscored Arsenal by a whopping 20-2 margin in these last seven battles. Man City won both EPL matches between these two teams by 3-0 scores with the last encounter being on June 17th where they also won the xG battle by a dominant 2.92-0.28 margin. A rested Man City should expose the suspect Arsenal defense who allowed their last two Big Six opponents in Liverpool and Tottenham to average 2.0 expected goals. 25* FA Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W9-D7-L9) looks to build off their 4-0 win at Norwich City last Saturday. Watford (W8-D10-L17) has won their last two matches after their 2-1 win at home over Newcastle United.

REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers are in good form right now — they are W2-D1-L1 in their last four contests while scoring nine goals and allowing just five goals. West Ham has scored at least two goals in three of their last four contests. The improvement can be attributed to manager David Moyes moving Michail Antonio up to forward as the primary attacker — and he has gelled with forward Jarrod Bowen on the wing who has been featured since he was acquired from Hull City in the winter transfer period. Antonio scored all four goals against the Canaries last week in that 4-0 victory! Over these last four matches, the Hammers have averaged a robust 2.71 expected goals (xG) while winning the expected goals battle in all four contests. West Ham returns home to London Stadium where they have underachieved this season — but they did defeat Chelsea at home back on July 1st by a 3-2 score. Watford’s last two victories have both been at home — but not they go back on the road where they have won just one time in their last nine matches. The Hornets have been shutout in their last four games away from home. For the season, Watford is generating just 1.02 xG in their seventeen road games while allowing 1.76 xG per contest. In their last six road games, the Hornets have managed just 4.74 xG in those games while conceding 9.29 expected goals allowed (xGA) combined in those contests. West Ham is going to score in this match as Watford has earned just one clean sheet in their twelve games. Ismail Sarr was playing great for manager Nigel Pearson when this team went on a nice run in the winter but the transfer who signed for a club-record has been listless and ineffective in Project Restart with just one shot in his last five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are tied in 16th place with 34 points which is three points clear of relegation. A victory likely ensures the winner returns to the English Premier League in the fall. West Ham won the reverse fixture by a 3-1 score back on August 24th. The Hammers are in better form — and Watford has struggled when playing away from Vicarage Road. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W24-D8-L3) has won all eight of their matches since the restart after they defeated Alaves by a 2-0 score on Friday. Granada (W14-D8-L13) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they defeated Real Sociedad on the road last Friday by a 3-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid may be the best defensive squad in Europe. They have registered five straight clean sheets since blanking Alaves on Friday —  and they did that despite allowing their guests to register 1.20 expected goals (xG) which were their highest expected goals allowed (xGA) since the restart. Los Blancos were playing without their rock in the middle of their defensive line in Sergio Ramos for that contest but he should be back on the pitch after getting that match off to rest. Real Madrid has allowed only two goals in these last eight matches — and their 0.62 xGA per match is best in the league over that span. Los Blancos have held six of these last eight opponents to below a 1.0 xG mark. But scoring can be an issue for this team. Five of their fifteen goals since the return have been from Ramos which does speak to his greatness — but it is not a great sign when a defenseman is scoring 33% of your goals. Only the brilliant Karim Benzema is averaging at least 0.40 xG per 90 minutes of the Real Madrid attacking players since the return to play. Yet manager Zinedine Zidane is content to continue to play pragmatically and grind out lower-scoring matches. Their last five matches have seen two victories by 2-0 scores with three wins by narrow 1-0 margins. This is probably the formula for success that Zidane foresees for next month’s Championship League campaign with juggernaut offensive units like Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and PSG among the main challenges (and they need to rally against the Cityzens in the second leg of that Round of Sixteen showdown). Real Madrid goes back on the road where they have scored only five goals in their last five matches. Granada is a defensive-minded team that may very well play with five defenders in their back-line for this showdown. El Grana was very fortunate to score three goals on Friday on just four shots on target — their xG was a meager 0.61 in that match. Granada has scored only twelve goals in their eight matches since the return — but they have held those eight opponents to just ten goals. They expected goals metrics indicate those numbers are indicative of El Grana’s play on both ends of the pitch as they have averaged 1.33 xG along with 1.23 xGA in those contests. They host this match at Nuevo Los Carmenes Stadium where they have scored only 21 times in their seventeen home matches. But they have surrendered just 14 goals in those seventeen games which are good for a 0.82 goals-per-game allowed average — and their xGA of 1.01 in those contests is also outstanding. Furthermore, in their seven matches against teams in the top half of the league standings, they have a low 7.81 xGA mark which makes their 9.0 xG in those seven games quite competitive.

FINAL TAKE: Granada has become a very tough “out” at home with a 2-0 upset victory over Barcelona and a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on their resume this season. El Grana has much to play for now besides being in the role of spoiler as they are just three points out of 6th place beginning the day. Real Madrid needs two victories in their last three contests to clinch the league title — but things could get nervy for this squad playing on the road against a feisty defensive side. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D5-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Everton on Thursday. Manchester United (W16-D10-L8) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Aston Villa on the road last Thursday by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester United as an offensive juggernaut right now having scored fourteen goals over their last four matches. The winter transfer addition of Bruno Fernandes has done wonders for this team to stabilize their midfield — and getting healthy again with the three-months of stoppage of play allowed both Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba to return to the pitch to make this Red Devils attack explode. Anthony Martial is a feisty forward who is benefitting from the presence of Rashford, Fernandes, and Pogba while 18-year old Mason Greenwood is suddenly thriving as another attacker with this embarrassment of riches for manager Gunnar Solskjaer. Man United has been a streaky team under Solskjaer who has been under fire — but he has been smart enough to not rock the boat with a good thing going so I do not expect lineup changes for this match (perhaps midweek). The Red Devils have scored seventeen goals in their six matches across all competitions since the return to play. They return home to Old Trafford where they have scored 37 goals in their seventeen league matches. They are also averaging a healthy 1.97 expected goals in those contests — and keep in mind that these seasonal numbers include playing half the season without Fernandes while dealing with the off-and-on injuries to Rashford and Pogba’s almost season-long absence. In their last four home games in league contests, the Red Devils have scored 13 times. And while Man United’s defense has been strong since the return, there have been some cracks in that armor. They surrendered two goals to a struggling Bournemouth side with that expected goals allowed (xGA) number being 1.97 xGA. They have allowed 24 goals in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides this season while conceding 11 goals in their twelve home matches against these clubs — so I do not expect them to keep a clean sheet in this match. Southampton has scored eight goals in their five matches since the return with attacker Danny Ings supplying five of those goals. Inge has 19 goals on the season to find himself in the Golden Boot race for most goals scored in the EPL this season. The Saints should have seen at least another goal in that match at Everton with their xG of 2.30 in that contest. Under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, the team plays an aggressive high press which creates more scoring opportunities while leaving them vulnerable in the back. This team is not going to park the bus — besides, they would love to feed Ings more scoring chances to help his Golden Boot chances. Hasenhuttl is convinced this approach is what is best for his team — and they did just upset Man City by a 1-0 score. But while they produced the clean sheet against the two-time defending champions, they were quite fortunate with that result considering that they gave up an xGA of 3.53 in that contests. Now they go back on the road where they have scored seven times in their last three matches. The Saints are one of the better teams on the road in the league (one of the reasons why I am passing on the side play in this match) with 55% of their total expected goals this season taking place away from home. Their 1.58 xG on the road is 5th best in the league. And they also have upset wins at Chelsea and Leicester City on the road this season.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton has allowed just four goals since the restart — but their xGA for those five games jumps to 8.41. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw way back in the idyll days of late August 2019 at St. Mary’s — but the Saints have allowed 2.0 goals-per-game in their five road matches against a Big Six side with sixteen combined goals scored in those games. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D8-L9) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D7-L20) snapped a five-game losing streak with a nil-nil draw at home versus Tottenham on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes have only lost one match in their five games in Project Restart but they are disappointed with settling for three draws over that span. Leicester City was playing their best soccer in the fall before taking a step back — but they remain in 4th place in the EPL table with a one-point lead over Manchester United pending this match week’s results. But there are reasons for optimism for this team: Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in the last two games. As Vardy goes, so do the Foxes. If he gets into form, he can carry this team on his shoulders. He has more Big Chances of scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate over the last two games matches the number of Big Chances he has generated in his previous nine matches combined. The Foxes are playing stingy defense as they have allowed just four goals in their five matches since the return. Leicester City tends to feast on the bottom teams in the league as well. The Foxes are W15-D5-L4 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 52 goals and allowing just 11 goals. Additionally, Leicester City is W7-D2-L3 in their twelve road matches against non-Power Six opponents with 27 goals and just nine goals conceded. Bournemouth has scored just three goals in Project Restart while conceding 12 goals. This is a team that seems resigned to being relegated under manager Eddie Howe who seems to have run out answers for this team. The Cherries play an open-style of play which is entertaining — but it is also dangerous when they are not scoring plenty of goals. Bournemouth had allowed nine goals in their previous two matches before not allowing the Spurs to score in their last match. That result may speak more to the woeful state of Tottenham right now under enigmatic manager Jose Mourinho than it does about any improved play with the Cherries. The 2.4 goals-per-game they are allowing since the restart is the highest number in the EPL. Bournemouth is just W5-D4-L15 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 21 goals and allowing 39 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Bournemouth did win the expected goals battle with Tottenham by a 1.50-0.67 xG clip but that was the first time they outperformed their opponent in that metric since the restart. They enter this match with two fewer days of rest which will not help their chances of fending off relegation. The Cherries find themselves six points from safety entering this match. Leicester City won the reverse fixture back on August 31st by a 3-1 score. The Foxes are motivated and rested — and they tend to play their best soccer against the weaker teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W22-D3-L9) looks to build off a 5-0 win over Newcastle United on Wednesday. Brighton (W8-D12-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City peppered the Magpies with 23 shots with nine of them on target. The Cityzens have scored 18 goals in their six EPL matches in Project Restart — and they have scored 20 goals in their last seven contests overall since the return including their 2-0 victory over that Newcastle team in the FA Cup two weeks ago. Man City is averaging 2.60 expected goals (xG) this season which is their highest mark in the last five seasons. We are not sure who will get the start in this match with manager Pep Guardiola keeping an eye towards the FA Cup Semifinals versus Arsenal along with the second-leg of their Round of Sixteen Champions League match with Real Madrid. But Guardiola has an abundance of riches to choose from given the depth of the winner of the last two EPL seasons. Raheem Sterling should be in the starting XI after not starting against the Magpies. And even if mainstays like Kevin DuBruyne do not get the start this afternoon, there is a good chance he will play for at least 20 minutes in this match to maintain his fitness. Man City has scored 69 goals in their last 24 matches against non-Big Six sides — and they have 31 goals in their twelve road matches against non-Big Six opponents. But the Cityzens’ have been leaky on defense this season especially playing on the road where they have allowed 22 goals in seventeen games away from the Etihad. Brighton had entered last week’s match with the newly crowned EPL champions having played pretty stingy defense — but they allowed Liverpool to attempt 20 shots with eight of them on target. The Reds generated 2.68 expected goals (xG) in that match. But manager Graham Potter can take comfort in their ability to generate 2.88 xG against the stout Liverpool defense in that match. The Seagulls have allowed 22 goals this season in their last eleven matches against Power Six sides. They have played Liverpool, Man United, and Arsenal in their last three home matches which have seen 10 combined goals scored in those contests including allowing three goals each to the Reds and Red Devils.

FINAL TAKE: Man City dominated the reverse fixture between these two teams with a 4-0 win on August 31st. The Cityzens have seen 3.60 combined xG in their matches this season with that mark rising to a combined 3.85 xG in their last five contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W29-D2-L2) enters this match as champions of the 2019-20 Premier League coming off a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Sunday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W8-D12-L13) look to build off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool was fortunate to score against the Villans in what was a listless performance that remained scoreless after the 70th minute before they scored two late goals. The Reds registered a small 0.82 expected goal mark (xG) against the suspect Aston Villa defense in that match. Liverpool have scored just six times in their four matches since Project Restart. Mo Salah has registered just one Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate since the return of play. He may not even get the start this afternoon with manager Jurgen Klopp likely to rotate out some of his key players. Roberto Firminho did not start on Sunday so while he is likely to take the pitch again for this match, it is likely that either Salah or Sadio Mane will get the afternoon off with a higher-profile match against Arsenal on deck next week. The Reds lose some of their offensive cohesion when their big three are not together on the pitch. Klopp looks likely to also rest defenseman Andrew Robertson who is an important cog in their offensive attack. Liverpool has struggled to score goals when playing away from Anfield. They have failed to score in their last five road games across all competitions spanning an incredible seven hours and 42 minutes. But the Reds’ defense remains consistent — they have allowed only 13 goals in their sixteen road games in the EPL. Furthermore, Liverpool has only allowed 13 goals in their twenty-five league games against non-Big Six sides — and they have surrendered just 7 goals in their twelve road games against non-Big Six opponents. Brighton has scored only three goals in their four matches since the return to action while averaging just 0.85 xG. But the defensive play for manager Graham Potter’s side has been outstanding as they have allowed just four goals in these four matches while holding these foes to just 0.75 xGA. The Seagulls have allowed just one Big Chance in their four matches since the return which includes facing some formidable offensive clubs in Manchester United, Arsenal, and Leicester City. They have three clean sheets in their last five matches. Unfortunately for Potter, they have also been shutout in four of their last eight matches. They return home where they have scored only 19 goals — but they have surrendered just 19 goals. Furthermore, in their four opportunities to host a Big Six side, the Seagulls have scored just 6 goals while allowing only 5 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 30th. The Reds have not scored more than two goals when playing on the road in their last six road games going back to December 26th. Brighton has seen seven of their last eight home matches go Under 2.5. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). THE SITUATION: Everton (W12-D8-L12) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-1 win over Leicester City last Wednesday. Tottenham (W12-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was a devastating psychological loss for Tottenham who was playing with much more rest than the promoted Blades who had played in two matches since the Spurs’ last contest. And while Tottenham complained about a controversial VAR call that took a Harry Kane goal off the board late in the first half, they were not dealt a bad hand according to the deeper metrics as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.46-1.08 xG margin. New manager Jose Mourinho expressed his displeasure with his team’s effort after the match because Mourinho can never fail — he can only be failed (in his world). I don’t that is going to sit well with a veteran locker room whose lack of interest already got Mauricio Pochettino fired earlier in the season. Mourinho wears his players thin — and that process may already be underway in these uniquely challenging circumstances with the Spurs’ players having little at stake. Frankly, the problems of this team are systemic of an organization not willing to get out their wallets to compete with the other Big Six franchises. Harry Kane has lost a step or two after two injury-riddled campaigns — and if he is no longer an all-world striker, this team’s quality quickly plummets. Mourinho changed Pochettino’s tactics from a pressing, possession team to a counter-attacking squad. While that makes the Spurs dangerous against elite possession sides like Liverpool and Man City, it can leave them flummoxed against other counter-attacking sides like Sheffield United. Tottenham was simply bereft of scoring ideas against the Blades when advancing the ball. Son-Heung-Min has been relegated to an afterthought playing wide on the wing. Dele Alli was perhaps the player who most benefited from Mourinho’s appointment — but he was suspended last week and remains a doubt this week with a hamstring injury. The sugar-high from Mourinho’s appointment has lone gone with the Spurs’ short-term improvement in play now overwhelmed by consistently troubling numbers. Tottenham’s defense is atrocious — they have the 5th most expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL since Mourinho took over in November with those numbers worsening to being 3rd worth in the league since the start of 2020. They also have the league’s worst xGA rate when playing at home in this calendar year. The Spurs are allowing 1.85 xGA under Mourinho which is not being neutralized by their offensive attack since they have produced only a 1.58 xG during that span with the manager which is only 8th best in the EPL. Tottenham under Mourinho is 11th in the EPL in net expected goal differential (xGD) and they are 13th in expected points (xPTS). I made the argument last week that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt given the bevy of injuries that this team has faced all season. In retrospect, I should not have read too much into their recent victory over a relegation-threatened West Ham while appreciating that their 1-1 draw with Man United was both fortunate and a by-product of their counter-attacking tactics meshing well with the Red Devils’ forward aggressiveness. And, of course, any hopes that a healthy Spurs side will begin outperforming their metrics assume a team that is still playing hard for their manager. Returning home to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would normally be seen a positive for this team — but a stadium without fans is not what this group needs right now. Furthermore, the Spurs are averaging only 1.48 xG at home under Mourinho while seeing their opponents produce a 1.63 xG in those games. Everton has won two of three matches in Project Restart with their lone blemish being a nil-nil draw with Liverpool where they won the xG battle. The Toffees have played much better since Carlo Ancelotti was appointed as the replacement of manager Marco Silva. In fact, Everton’s W7-D4-L3 record since his appointment is 4th best in the EPL. The Toffees have lost only three times under Ancelotti to Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal (in a game where the xG says they should have won). They are 4th best in the EPL over that span with a 1.93 xG on offense — and they have improved on defense with a 1.26 xGA which is an improvement over a 1.34 xGA under Silva. But Everton’s defense has particularly elevated in quality recently — they are allowing only 1.25 Big Chances (shots with a success rate of at least 35%) since match week 25 and they have surrendered just one goal in three matches since the return. The Toffees go back on the road where they have only 15 points — but the xG numbers indicate they are the second-most underachieving team in the league when playing away from home. Under Ancelotti, Everton has been the 3rd best road team in terms of expected goals with 1.93-1.34 xG marks — and they have been the most efficient team on the road in the EPL since Christmas.

FINAL TAKE: Everton’s 44 points puts them in 11th place and just one point behind Tottenham. But the metrics tell a different story with the Toffees rising to 7th best in the league in xPTS while the Spurs drop to 13th. Everton has a dominant +0.56 net expected points differential edge for Tottenham over the season — even before accounting for recent form. The Toffees still have a potential Europa League qualification alive as well with them being just four points behind Sheffield United in 7th place and the likely final qualifying spot. 25* EPL Monday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). THE SITUATION: Real Villarreal (W16-D6-L11) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win at Real Betis on Wednesday. Barcelona (W21-D7-L5) has settled for draws in three of their last four matches after a 2-2 draw at home with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL VILLARREAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a disastrous return to play for the reigning La Liga champions who have lost their grip on first place. Barcelona opened Project Restart last month with a two-point lead up on Real Madrid — but after Los Blancos late 1-0 victory over Athletico Bilbao this morning, Barca find themselves seven points behind their arch-rivals. The Blaugranas must win out their remaining five matches while hoping that Real Madrid drops points somewhere — without the benefit of another head-to-head match. Frankly, the writing is on the wall for this team with rumors of internal dissension with new manager Quique Setien who came on in January along with talk that Lionel Messi may be ready to jump ship when his contract expires next season. Antoine Griezmann is mired in a slump which has probably impacted Messi as he is enduring his worst statistical season in terms of efficiency in five seasons. Barcelona has systemic problems right now. They are too reliant on Messi to bail them out of trouble. They have been too slow in building up play when possessing the ball. They have been vulnerable against counter-attacks. And there have been too many issues with their backline that Setien inherited but has been unable to fix. Barca is just 6th in La Liga in fewest goals allowed which is unfamiliar territory for them. This team has not been the victims of bad luck as they lost the expected goals (xG) with Atletico Madrid while holding narrow edges with the xG numbers in their other two matches. The vulnerabilities of the Catalan Giants most often demonstrate themselves when playing on the road against the top teams in the league. Barcelona has won only two of their last eight matches on the road versus a top-ten La Liga opponent while losing three of these matches outright. They are also getting beaten in the xG numbers by a 1.22-0.90 xG margin in those eight road matches. Since Setien has taken over, they are generating 1.55 xG on the road while seeing their home hosts produce a 1.27 xG mark. Those are good numbers but not nearly the elite standard that Barca has set over the last five seasons where they have won four league titles. Real Villarreal was limping before the stoppage of play with three straight losses — but they have returned with a renewed focus by going unbeaten in their six matches with five victories. The Yellow Submarines have only allowed two goals in these six matches while producing five clean sheets. A switch to a 4-4-2 formation by manager Javier Calleja has helped trigger these outstanding defensive numbers by adding a fourth defender in their backline. Real Villarreal is holding their opponents to just 0.92 xG since the switch to a 4-4-2 while their quality in attack up top is still producing 2.06 xG in those games. The Yellow Submarines are also getting these good results against the best that La Liga has to offer. Real Villarreal has a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid along with a nil-nil result with Atletico Madrid and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla (the other teams in the top four of the table) along with a 1-0 win over Getafe. They now find themselves three points out of 4th place with serious Champions League aspirations in the fall. Real Villarreal is one of the mainstays in this league with top-six finishes from 2013 through 2018 before a disappointing 14th place finish last year. They have scored in 21 of their last 22 league matches — and they have also scored in 29 of their last 31 home games against La Liga competition. The Yellow Submarines are producing a healthy 2.16 xG in their sixteen home matches this season while holding their guests to just 1.46 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Real Villarreal will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou back on September 24th. These are much different less than ten months later with Ernesto Valverde no longer the skipper for Barca and the Yellow Submarines playing their best soccer in years. These two teams played to a 4-4 draw when playing at Real Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica last year — so the home dog will be confident that they can pull the upset this time around. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports Match of the Month with Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W21-D3-L8) enters this match coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Liverpool on Thursday. Southampton (W12-D4-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at Watford last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City may have relinquished their two-season run as English Premier League champions — but they have been an offensive juggernaut and remain motivated to maintain their form with the FA Cup and Champions League titles still at stake later this summer. The Cityzens peppered a strong Liverpool defense with 14 shots while posting an expected goal mark (xG) of 2.99 which suggests that their four goals were not too much of an overachievement against the new champions of the EPL. Man City has scored 13 goals in their four EPL matches since the return to play while posting at least a 2.60 xG mark in three of those games. They also have scored 15 goals in their five overall matches since the return which includes their victory in the FA Cup Quarterfinals last weekend. The Cityzens are averaging a robust 2.56 xG per match in the EPL this season which is their highest mark over the last five seasons. They also lead the league with the most Big Chances of scoring opportunities with an expected success rate of at least 35% since the return to play. Man City averages a robust 3.1 xG in league play this season against opponents that are not in the top seven in the EPL table. But the Cityzens defense is what has held them back from a three-peat in the EPL this year. They entered this match week having allowed the most Big Chances since the return to action. Manager Pep Guardiola’s pressing system creates many scoring opportunities — but it leaves them vulnerable to great scoring chances with counter-attacks. Man City is allowing their home hosts to average 1.42 xGA in league play this year. But they are also generating 2.63 xG in their sixteen road matches in the EPL. The Cityzens have seen 83 combined goals scored in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides for a 3.77 combined goal score total — and they have seen 43 combined goals scored in their 11 road matches in EPL action for a 3.91 combined goal mark. Southampton got two goals from forward Danny Ings in their victory over Watford last Sunday. Ings is challenging for the Golden Boot Award with 18 goals in the EPL this season. He has been galvanized by first-year manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s commitment to an aggressive high-press which increases scoring opportunities for the Saints. Southampton has scored six goals in their three matches since the return — and this philosophy has worked with them reaching the 40 point threshold in the standings while being safe from relegation by 13 points. But these tactics do make them vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 33 goals at home with an  1.78 goals-against average which is the higher home mark in the EPL. Even after throwing out the Leicester City 9-0 victory at St. Mary’s in the fall as an outlier, the Saints are surrendering 1.50 goals per game at home in the EPL this season. Furthermore, in their five home matches against traditional Big Six opponents (which does not include Leicester City), Southampton has seen 16 combined goals scored.

FINAL TAKE: Manchester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Southampton is seeing an average of 2.93 xG in their matches this season with 62% of their games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Man City is seeing 3.56 xG combined goal marks in their league matches this season — and that number has increased to a 3.74 xG combined goal mark in their last four contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W16-D6-L10) looks to rebound from a disappointing 3-2 upset loss at West Ham on Wednesday. Watford (W6-D10-L16) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Chelsea was vulnerable to an emotional letdown after pulling off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Man City (which eliminated the two-time defending EPL champions from repeating this season) and then following that up with a 1-0 victory at Leicester City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup last Sunday. Sure enough, this young Blues team traveled on the road to face a counter-attacking Hammers team desperate for a victory as they fight to avoid relegation. Chelsea has still looked very good since the return to play last month with three wins in four matches. They remain very motivated to play well as they are in a dog fight to qualify for one of the four spots for next year’s Champions League. The Blues begin match week 33 in 4th place in the EPL table two points ahead of Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The underlying metrics love this team — while Chelsea sits in 4th place with 54 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 60.38 is 3rd best in the EPL. Those numbers would likely be even better since there without an injured Christian Pulisic for much of the season. The American appears to be the real deal — he leads the EPL in touches inside the box since the return to play last month. The Blues return home to Stamford Bridge where they are W8-D3-L5 this season. They have scored only 24 goals at home this year but the metrics suggest they have been unfortunate in that regard with an expected goals mark (xG) of 37.43. Chelsea’s xPTS at home jump to 37 with them averaging 2.34 xG and allowing just 0.74 xGA — and that +1.60 xG differential is the 2nd best home mark in the EPL this season. With Pulisic healthy and the Blues playing in a 4-3-3 formation that Frank Lampard shifted to midseason (which gets defender Marco Alonso on the pitch who is an effective player in their attack), Chelsea is one of the top teams in the league. Watford had been playing well after manager Javi Garcia was sacked for Nigel Pearson in early December. The Hornets responded by going W4-D2-L1 in their first eight matches under Pearson before things began to slide with them going W1-D1-L4 in their final six matches before the stoppage of play. Since the return, Watford is just W0-D1-L2 while scoring just two goals (with one of those goals being an own-goal by Southampton last Sunday). The Hornets are just listless on offense right now with little energy. Ismaila Carr displayed a glimpse of brilliance when Pearson was appointed but he has been mostly absent since the return to action. Watford simply may not be motivated to play out the string of matches after being quarantined for months — and they do not seem to be overly concerned about their impending relegation with them currently in 17th place by just one point over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The Hornets have won only one match over their last ten matches while averaging just 1.22 xG. Now they go back on the road where they are W2-D4-L10 in their sixteen EPL matches while averaging just 1.00 xG in those matches. Watford has won only once in their last eight road league matches. The Hornets are not equipped to grind out a lower-scoring match either as they have allowed the 6th most goals in the league this year — and they are tied for allowing the 5th most goals when playing on the road. They have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on November 2nd by a 2-1 score. With the Hornets out-of-form and with their motivation in question, an angry Blues team should bounce-back with a strong effort. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the finals of the German Cup with their 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt back on June 10th. Bayer Leverkusen reached the finals of this tournament the day before when they defeated Saarbrucken by a 3-0 score. The 77th DFB-Pokal Cup will be played on a neutral field at Hertha Berlin’s Olympiastadion.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich may have become the best team in Europe once Hanso Flick was appointed manager of the team in early November. The Bavarians were underachieving in league play as they were perhaps a bit listless after seven straight Bundesliga titles. Flick made a few crucial adjustments that re-ignited this team. First, he deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation with a high press. Not only did this force more turnovers but the higher placed backline on the pitch served to force more suboptimal shots from their opponents. Flick also moved Joshua Kimmich from fullback up the pitch to a holding midfield position — and not only did this give more room to operate for this rising superstar but it opened up a starting slot for Phonzie at fullback with the Canadian thriving with the opportunity given his multiple skill set. It is a bounty of riches for this team with a reliable veteran at forward in Thomas Muller, a scoring machine as the attacker in Robert Lewandowski who has 49 goals in all competitions, and then a 19-year freak of an athlete in Alphonso Davies with the Canadian being the fastest player on the field. Bayern Munich easily went on to win their eighth straight Bundesliga title by 17 points and enter this match on a seventeen game winning streak. They won all ten of their matches in the return to play in May while scoring 29 times and conceding just seven goals. Bayer Leverkusen stumbled in the return to play in May as they only won five of their nine matches with three losses. They only outscored their nine opponents by +2 net goals while surrendering nine goals. Die Werkself controlled their own destiny to take one of the four qualifying slots for next fall’s Championship League — but a devastating 2-0 loss at home to a Hertha Berlin team going nowhere blew those chances. Bayer Leverkusen will have to again settle for playing in the Europa League — and that status may degrade their confidence in this match. Die Werkself finished 19 points below Bayern Munich. The weak link for this team is their defense — they allowed just the 8th fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season while dropping to 10th place for expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. The Bavarians are an offensive machine who scored 100 goals this season — and while the metrics (unsurprisingly) call for regression, their expected goals still amount to a whopping 92.85 figure.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two matches in the Bundesliga — but Bayern Munich won the last encounter between these two teams by a 4-2 score playing at Die Werkself’s Bay Arena. The Bavarians won their 19th DFB-Pokal Cup last year when they defeated RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score. Bayern Munich also has serious Champions League aspirations — so it will be all systems go for this juggernaut as they look to stay fresh for that competition next month while defending their German national championship crown. Bayer Leverkusen proved once again that they are not yet in the class of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and this Bayern Munich organization after their disappointing finish. 25* Soccer ESPN2 Match of the Month with Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). THE SITUATION: Mallorca (W8-D5-L20) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 5-1 victory over Celta de Vigo. Atletico Madrid (W15-D14-L4) remained unbeaten in their last thirteen matches across all competitions with their 2-2 draw at Barcelona last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was an offensive explosion for Mallorca with the last-place team in La Liga breaking a three-game losing streak with those five goals. They had scored just two goals in their first five matches since the return to action before scoring five times on just nine shots. The analytics indicate that Los Bermellones were rather fortunate to put up five goals considering that their expected goals (xG) for that match were just 1.69 xG. Now Mallorca goes back on the road where they are last in La Liga with just 5 points based on their W1-D2-L13 record this season. Los Bermellones have scored just 13 goals in those sixteen road matches. Mallorca has failed to score at least one goal in nine of their last ten losses. They will also be undermanned in this match with the biggest loss being their leading scorer in Ante Budimir who is suspended for this match due to yellow cards. Budimir has scored 12 of Mallorca’s 35 goals this season. Manager Vicente Moreno’s team still has plenty to play for with them occupying the final relegation spot in 18th place being five points shy of safety in 17th place. Moreno’s team is playing better on defense as of late as they have allowed eight combined goals over their last five matches with only one of these sides scoring more than two goals. Atletico Madrid is a dominant defensive team that has registered three clean sheets while allowing just four combined goals in their six matches since the return last month. Los Colchoneros have allowed only 25 goals this season which is 2nd best in La Liga — and they lead the league with the lowest expected goals allowed mark. Atletico Madrid is also tied for 2nd by conceding only 10 goals in their sixteen league matches at home. But Los Colchoneros have scored just 23 times in those sixteen home matches. Manager Diego Simeone is likely to sub a number of his key players who played in that showdown with Barcelona when now hosting this lightly regarded Mallorca team. Six of Los Colchoneros’ last ten home games resulted in them shutting out their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-0 score. Four of the last five meetings between these two resulted in a game that finished Under 2.5 combined goals. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W12-D9-L10) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over West Ham last Tuesday. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Arsenal in the FA Cup on Sunday that followed up a 3-0 loss last Wednesday at Manchester United in their last English Premier League contest.

REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs match with the Hammers was the first time under manager Jose Mourinho where he had a full complement of the team’s best scoring options at his disposal. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have been injured for much of time since Mourinho took over in mid-November and Dele Alli was suspended for their 1-1 draw with Manchester United in their first match back from the March stoppage. A healthy Spurs’ side generated a potent 2.53 expected goals against West Ham pointing to the still elite potential of this team. Remember, it was just over a year ago that this Tottenham team was in the finals of the Champions League where they lost to Liverpool for the European Championship. The team seemed tired of manager Mauricio Pochettino’s message in the fall with their sluggish play which led to him being sacked amidst disagreements with management over the direction of the team. Mourinho has ditched Pochettino’s pressing approach for a counter-attacking style that may be better attuned for the injuries he was facing midseason before the stoppage of play in March. Limiting the Hammers to just 0.84 expected goals is encouraging as is their 1-1 draw with Man United last week with the Red Devils being one of the hottest teams in the EPL. The most encouraging aspect of this team may from the play of Kane last week as he scored a goal and played with more energy and vigor on the pitch than he has demonstrated in a long time. The three months off may have been just what the doctor ordered for the forward who has won two straight Golden Boots in the EPL. Sheffield United is scoreless in their last six league matches — and they have only scored once in their four matches in the return to play last month. They have allowed eight goals in their last three matches. Perhaps a visit from the Regression Gods was inevitable — while the Blades rank 8th in the EPL with 44 points, their expected points (xPTS) drops them to 13th with 39.97 points in those projected rankings. This has always been a defense-first club under manager Chris Wilder — but injuries and a busy schedule testing the depth of a promoted side have challenged this team. Their best defender in center back Jack O’Connell remains a doubt with his injury for this match and defensive midfielder John Lunstram only played 35 minutes on Sunday with an ankle injury that may keep him out for this contest. After holding their opponents to just 6.82 inside the box before the break, Sheffield United have allowed 10 shots in EPL play since the return to play. And the Blades are allowing 3 big chances representing scoring chances of a 35% or better success rate per match since the return as compared to the 1.89 big chances they were allowed before the break. Or, maybe their injuries and challenges of the thin backline are just excuses for those inevitable Regression Gods: Sheffield United has allowed only 31 goals this season which is 3rd best in the EPL — but their 42.88 xGA is just 8th best in the league.

FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United was an overachieving team this season that was benefiting from great cohesion. All that was spoiled by the stoppage of lay — and the Blades have not only regressed back to the mean in terms of their underlying metrics but their lack of depth and experience has them playing like the promoted team they were expected to be when they rejoined the EPL this season. These two teams settled with a 1-1 draw in November. But now Tottenham is much healthier under a new manager — and Sheffield United has not only played twice as many matches since the return risking fatigue with their limited depth but they are also playing their third match since the Spurs last took the pitch last Tuesday. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D8-L12) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Norwich City last Wednesday. Leicester City (W16-D7-L8) lost their FA Cup Quarterfinals match at home against Chelsea on Sunday by a 1-0 score after settling for a nil-nil draw at home against Brighton in their last English Premier League match last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Leicester City was riding high after their first seventeen league matches where they had 39 points while generation 1.93 expected points (xG) and allowing just 1.05 expected points (xGA). But the Foxes have lost their mojo since that time as they have managed just 16 points over their last fourteen league matches. They have regressed on both sides of the pitch as they have averaged just 1.48 xG over that span while allowing 1.65 xGA. They have experienced a massive -1.04 expected goal differential drop over that span. What has happened? For starters, their talisman Jamie Vardy has not been himself as he got into a scoring funk that was exacerbated by missing a couple of matches to an injury. His big chances of scoring opportunities of 35% or higher have plummeted since his hot streak in the fall. This malaise has spread to the entire team that has seen its tenacity and pace decline. The Foxes are also not getting great play out of their midfielders — and they will be without James Maddison for this match. Leicester City has not scored in four of their last six league matches while averaging just 1.13 xG over those contests — and they were then shutout on Sunday by Chelsea. They have won only four times in their last fourteen EPL matches. Since the return to play this month, they have generated only 1.68 expected goals in both their EPL matches — and they lost the expected goals battle against two teams mired in the bottom-six of the table in Brighton and Watford. Not good, Bob. Perhaps what Leicester City is experiencing is simply a long-overdue visit from the Regression Gods. While they are 3rd in the league in the table, their expected points of 49.71 drop them to 6th best. Everton is unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches — and they probably deserved a win in their draw with Liverpool in their first game back from the break. This is a much-improved team under manager Carlo Ancelotti. They have generated 1.98 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.22 xGA with that xG differential being the 5th best in the league over that span. The Toffees are one of three EPL teams entering this match week that have yet to concede a big chance. They return home to Goodison Park where they have only scored 19 times — but their xG at home rises to 24.05 which strongly suggests they have experienced some tough luck. Everton plays very tough defense at home as they held their opponents to just 1.12 xGA on their home pitch — and they have also held the top half of the table to just 1.19 xGA at home this season. The Toffees are unbeaten at home under Ancelotti with three wins in those six matches while allowing just four combined goals. And in their last eight matches against non-Big Six sides under Ancelotti, Everton is beaten in those contests with six wins and a +7 net goal differential with 14 goals scored. The Toffees still have much to play for despite being in 12th place as they are just four points out of 7th place and the likely final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Their 49.48 expected points (xPTS) are 7th best in the league a just behind Leicester City’s number.

FINAL TAKE: Everton will have revenge on their minds as well for this contest having lost three straight matches to the Foxes across all competitions. The Toffees lost the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 1st by a 2-1 score before then losing at Leicester City in the League Cup via penalty kicks after a 2-2 score back on December 18th. Manager Marco Silva was in charge of both those matches — so this is the Toffees' first opportunity to play the Foxes since Ancelotti took over the club. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Year with the Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W13-D10-L8) comes off a 3-0 victory over Sheffield United last Wednesday in their last match in the English Premier League. Brighton (W7-D12-L12) registered a nil-nil draw in their last match last Thursday at Leicester City.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United followed up their win over the Blades on Wednesday with a 2-1 victory at Norwich City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on Saturday. Eight of the starters that played in that midweek match with Sheffield did not start o Saturday against the Canaries so manager Gunnar Solskjaer should have a relatively rested starting XI despite their busy schedule since the return to action this month. The Red Devils have scored five goals in their two EPL matches this month — and they have scored seven goals while allowing one goal in their three matches overall since the return. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary last Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Martial, Rashford, and Pogba did not start on Saturday so they should all be fresh for this match. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. The Red Devils have also been outstanding on defense with five clean sheets in their last seven league matches. But while they have surrendered just two goals in their last seven EPL matches, their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark over those seven games rises to a 7.3 xGA mark which strongly suggests they have been very fortunate in not surrendering more goals. Furthermore, much of their defensive prowess has taken place at Old Trafford where they have resisted five straight clean sheets. Man United has allowed nineteen of their thirty goals when playing on the road this season in EPL action. Brighton has lost just once in their last seven matches in EPL play. They return home where they have scored in five of their last six matches. The Seagulls will be a confident group when playing at the Amex where they have already pulled off upsets against Tottenham, Everton, and Arsenal while earning draws with Chelsea and Wolverhampton. In their three home matches against Big Six sides, Brighton has scored six times. The Seagulls have scored 34 goals this season while conceding 41 goals — but the deeper metrics suggest that both those numbers are unexpectedly low given their expected goals mark of 40.80 (xG) and their expected goals allowed (xGA) figure of 45.82. Brighton still has plenty to play for being only six points safe from relegation. Manager Graham Potter will open up his team’s style of play if they fall behind to attempt to salvage at least one point with the draw. They have an expected goals mark of 1.53 when playing at home — and they allow their opponents to register 1.33 xGA when at home.

FINAL TAKE: Brighton are dangerous dogs in this match (which is why I am passing on the side play) — I expect them to score on this Man United team that is not as stingy when playing on the road. But the Red Devils are clicking on offense now with their best talent finally all healthy. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams when they won by a 3-1 score back on November 10th. But Brighton has won their last two opportunities to host the Red Devils where they have scored four combined goals. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W13-D10-L8) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Valladolid last Tuesday. Real Sociedad (W14-D5-L12) has lost three straight matches after their 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE GETAFE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Real Sociedad is a young and vibrant team that was making a serious challenge to finish in the top-four in the La Liga this season which would qualify them for next year’s Champions League. But this team has struggled in the return to play this month as they have lost three of their four matches with just one draw keeping things from being completely dismal. We had La Real in that opening match at home against Osasuna where I endorsed a strong play on Real Sociedad given the underlying metrics for both teams along with the apparent mismatch for both teams with Osasuna not having much to play for in the return to play. But watching that match made it evident that La Real was simply not very motivated despite a rally from their 1-0 deficit to eke out the draw. There have been a handful of younger players across the European leagues who did not keep themselves in tip-top shape during quarantine who have then been slow to get back to game-shape. With Real Sociedad now on a three-game losing streak and seven points out of 4th place that would qualify them for the Champions League, the motivation for this team is in question moving forward. Injuries — or the lowered threshold of what is a debilitating injury — has made matters worse for this team. La Real will be without their captain Asier Illarramendi along with Ander Barrenetxea, Lucas Sangalli, and Ander Guevara are dealing with injuries that will likely keep them out for this match. And their key backline player in Diego Llorente is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Wednesday. This potential Champions League team is simply a shell of their best days pre-COVID. They have only scored two times in their four matches after being 3rd in the league in scoring before the stoppage in play. Now Real Sociedad goes back on the road where they are 8th in the La Liga with 20 points — but their expected points (xPTS) of 16.20 in their fifteen road matches are just 11th best in the league. Getafe is winless in their last five contests — but they have only lost once in their four matches since the return to action. The Azulones engage in an intense style that may have been difficult to reproduce without a set of friendlies before returning to league action after three months off. But every week that passes should help Getafe return to the form that keeps them in 5th place in La Liga just 5 points out of 4th place (and Champions League qualification) entering this match in the live standings. Getafe has only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play. They return home for this match where they have lost only three times in sixteen league matches — and those losses were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid who are the top-three teams in the league. The Azulones have been a bit unfortunate at home with their 22 goals scored contrasting with their 28.12 expected goals (xG) at home which is 4th best in La Liga. They will also be without their best defender in center back Djene Dakonam who was suspended for this match after being dealt his second yellow card on Tuesday. But the Azulones have a bit more to play for at this point of the season — and they have one extra day of rest while being in better form than La Real.

FINAL TAKE: Getafe won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 21- score on the road. Getafe has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams — look for them to continue their dominance in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Network Match of the Year with Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on March 4th when they defeated Sheffield Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Newcastle United punched their Quarterfinals ticket on March 3rd when they defeated West Brom on the road by a 3-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City will be playing their first match since officially being eliminated from defending their two-time English Premier League championship with their 2-1 loss at Chelsea on Thursday. Those are the only two goals that the Citizens have allowed in their three matches since the return of play this month. Man City leads the EPL by allowing just 1.01 expected goals per game this season — and their defense is much better with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte at center back leading their backline. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season (before the return to play this month), the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play, those numbers fell to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. With holding-midfielder Fernandinho suspended for this match after being issued a red card in that game with Chelsea on Thursday, I expect LaPorte to be in the starting XI this afternoon. Manager Pep Guardiola will likely choose his best players for this match with FA Cup and Champions League championships in August still goals this season. But Man City will be without their best attacking forward in Sergio Aguero who suffered an injury last week that may keep him out for the rest of the EPL season. While Gabriel Jesus is a capable replacement at forward after being rested in that Chelsea match, it is Aguero that is the straw that stirs the drink. Newcastle is playing very effective compact soccer right now. They registered their third clean sheet over their last four matches with the only goal being surrendered over that span being on Wednesday in their 1-1 draw at home versus Aston Villa. The Magpies are particularly stingy when play at home in St. James Park where they have allowed only 13 goals in sixteen English Premier League matches which are tied for the second-lowest mark in the EPL. With all eight teams competing in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup being from the EPL, I am comfortable using those statistics in handicapping these contests. The concern for this Newcastle United team is that their ambition on offense can stagnate. They registered a low 0.79 expected goals against a suspect Aston Villa defense on Wednesday while failing to generate even one big scoring chance of at least a 35% probability of success rate. The Magpies are averaging just 1.07 expected goals per game in the EPL which is second-to-last. Newcastle has scored only 16 goals at home this year which is the second-fewest in the EPL — and that is matched by their expected goal projection at home which is also 19th in the league. 

FINAL TAKE: But manager Steve Bruce is content to grind out lower scoring matches on his home pitch. In their four home games against a big six side in the EPL this season, Newcastle has won two of these matches (while taking one point with a draw in a third game) while seeing only seven combined goals scored. 25* FA Cup Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W11-D4-L16) has lost three of their last four matches with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Thursday. Watford (W6-D10-L15) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Burnley on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton has seen five combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action this month as they began with a 3-0 victory at Norwich City. The Saints have played better under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl after hitting rock bottom in a 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl doubled-down on his high-press aggressive style of play which has helped generate scoring chances. Southampton is averaging 1.59 expected goals per match this season — and they have the 7th best expected goals mark when playing on the road. But this approach does make them vulnerable on their back end. The Saints are allowing 2.42 big scoring chances with an expected success rate of at least 35% which is the 4th highest mark in the EPL. Their challenge on defense in this match is heightened with starting defensive back Jack Stephens suspended for this match after receiving a red card in that match against the Gunners on Thursday. Southampton is averaging 1.66 expected goals (xG) when playing on the road — but they are allowing 1.79 expected goals (xGA) in these fifteen road contests. The Saints have scored at least one goal in seventeen of their last eighteen road matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight games away from home. Watford has only seen three combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action. But they return home to Vicarage Road where they are average 1.80 xG per match which is 8th best in the EPL. The Hornets have scored in seven of their last eight matches at home. But they are also allowing their opponents to average 1.51 xGA in their fifteen home matches. Additionally, Watford has only generated just one clean sheet in their last nine matches.

FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen an average of 3.03 combined expected goals scored in their fifteen matches at home. 60% of their home games have finished Over the Total. Southampton is averaging 3.04 combined expected goals per match in their fifteen road games. 67% of those matches have finished Over 2.5 goals — and they have seen eight of their last ten road matches finished Over 2.5 goals. 25* EPL Sunday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester United reached the Quarterfinals of this event back on March 5th when they defeated Derby County on the road by a 3-0 score. Norwich City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup the day before on March 4th when they upset Tottenham via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big six powers in the English Premier League tend to rotate players for these FA Cup matches with this competition not as prestigious as the English Premier League and the Champions League. But Gunnar Solskjaer has never won a championship as a manager so he may be keener to produce a lineup that will lead to victory in this match. At the very least, Solskjaer will likely call on his big guns if his team does not have a lead in the second half. And he certainly has the benefit of a deeper bench than what this Norwich City team has available to them as the last-place team in the EPL. Man United is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches with nine victories over that span. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary on Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. But it is the play on defense that has made the biggest difference for Solskjaer’s side. The Red Devils have registered clean sheets in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. And they are just one of three teams to not allow even one big chance since the EPL returned to action this month. They go on the road for this match but they are averaging over 2.0 expected goals away from home in league play — and they are unbeaten in their last seven matches on the road in the EPL. While this is technically not an English Premier League match, I am comfortable looking at that data when assessing how they will perform against another EPL team. Norwich City is in deep trouble to be relegating as they are six points behind the three-way tie for 19th place in the EPL. They have managed only 8 points in their last eleven matches where they have won just one match. The Canaries have lost both their matches since the return to play while failing to score and allowing four goals. Norwich City is struggling on both sides of the pitch. They have been held scoreless in six of their last seven matches — and they scored just one time in that one game where they were not blanked. The Canaries have the worst attack in the EPL — and they have only managed two shots on target in their two matches since the return to play. They have also allowed a whopping 21 shots inside the box in their two matches this month — and they are last in the EPL in expected goals allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Man United swept the two EPL matches between these two sides this season as they followed up a 3-1 win at Carrow Road in October with a 4-0 win at home at Old Trafford on January 11th. While rotation risks exist with the Red Devils for this match, keep in mind that they play five straight matches against teams in the bottom seven in the EPL starting with this contest so Solskjaer may feel comfortable playing some of his key players to make sure his team advances to the Semifinals. And because Norwich City will be playing with abandon in this elimination contest, a Red Devils route is very possible. 25* FA Cup Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W12-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their two matches since the return to play this month after they defeated Bournemouth on Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D6-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves are playing outstanding soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last five EPL matches with four victories. They have scored nine goals in those five matches while conceding just two goals. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team is playing suffocating defense with six clean sheets in their last seven league matches. They have held their two opponents since the return to just 0.40 combined expected goals allowed after limiting a solid Cherries’ attack to just 0.13 expected goals allowed (xGA). Wolverhampton is significantly better — and more confident — in thwarting their opponent’s attack when Willy Boly is healthy and on the pitch. In their fifteen EPL matches with Boly, they are allowing just 0.50 goals-per-game with nine clean sheets while allowing 1.20 big chances per game and 6.80 shots inside the box per game. Those numbers all compare favorably versus sixteen league matches without Boly where they are allowing 1.60 goals-per-game with just one clean sheet while allowing 1.62 big chances per match and 6.87 shots inside the box per game. Overall, Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing only 24 big chances all season. The Wolves are a balanced team — they are also 4th in the league with 52 big chances on offense. These strong fundamentals help explain why they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-four of their thirty-one league matches. They are unbeaten in their last four EPL matches on the road with three victories. They are 4th in the league with 24 points on the road — and they rank 3rd in expected points (xPTS) when playing away from home. With Wolverhampton tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table, they are very motivated to keep playing well to qualify for one of the four spots for next fall’s Champions League (with Man City’s eligibility still up in the air). Aston Villa is tied for second-to-last in the EPL table having gone winless in their last seven matches with five losses. They have only scored twice in their three matches since the return to play this month. On paper, it appears as if the Villans have significantly improved their play on defense with manager Dean Smith using the stoppage of play to adjust his defensive tactics. Smith had to do something — his team had allowed the most shots inside the box through twenty-nine game weeks since the EPL starting measuring that data. But the Villans have also benefited from a relatively weak returning schedule facing a Magpies team this week that is second-to-last in scoring in the EPL along with a rusty Chelsea side, and an undermanned Sheffield United group that leans heavily on their defensive play. Aston Villa remains desperate for points — so they will play more aggressively if and when they fall behind in this match. The Villans have not registered a clean sheet in eleven straight matches. They are winless in their last nineteen matches in English top-flight in the top-six of the standings in the time of the match — and they have lost seventeen of these contests including their last thirteen.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 10th. With seven days off before their next contest, Nuno can comfortably play his best starting XI. Don’t get worried if the Wolves lack a lead at halftime as they have outscored their opponents in the second half by a whopping 32-10 margin. And they have allowed only one goal in the EPL this season after taking a one-goal lead. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W11-D6-L12) was unbeaten in their last seven matches before the stoppage of play after their 1-1 draw at home with Tottenham. Manchester City (W19-D3-L7) comes off a 3-0 win at home on Wednesday over Arsenal in their return to the pitch.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citizens’ victory over the Gunners was their third clean sheet in their last four matches in the English Premier League — and they have played six straight matches in EPL action where one of the teams was shut out. Man City suffocated the Arsenal attack on Wednesday as they allowed only three shots with none on target. Pep Guardiola’s team is much better with center back Aymeric LaPorte on the pitch after he missed much of the season with an injury. Before Wednesday’s match, in the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play this week, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. Man City scored three goals against Arsenal but keep in mind that two of those goals were scored with a man advantage after the Gunners’ defenseman, David Luiz, was whistled for a red card. The Citizens struggled early to get their offense going in that match as they managed only two shots while posting a minuscule 0.13 expected goals mark in the first 30 minutes of that match. Forward Sergio Aguero did not start in that match so he is likely to be one of the starters up top for the two-time defending champions for this match — but who knows what will happen with Pep roulette with the remaining starting XI. Don’t be surprised if Raheem Sterling and/or Kevin DeBruyne does not start in this match. With Liverpool all but clinched the EPL title this season, the goal for Guardiola and this team is to slowly get his team in shape and form for a Champions League run in August which is the only championship to elude this team over their fantastic run in the last few seasons. Man City has the allowed only 12 goals in the EPL when playing at home in the Etihad while also leading the league in the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They have produced six clean sheets in their fourteen home matches at home. And in their ten home games against teams outside the traditional big six EPL clubs, Man City has surrendered just seven goals. Burnley will be significantly undermanned at forward with both Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out with injuries for this match. Wood and Barnes are the Clarets’ two leading scorers with seventeen combined goals which account for half of the team’s 34 goals on the season. As it is when at full strength, Burnley has scored only seven goals in their ten matches against the traditional big six sides in the EPL. Expect manager Sean Dyche has his team park the proverbial bus to stymie the Man City attack in this match. Dyche would be ecstatic with a nil-nil draw. The Clarets have allowed at least three goals in only six of their twenty-nine matches — and they have given up more than three goals in just three of those games. When Burnley is playing in a defensive 4-4-2 formation, they enjoy a positive net expected goal differential of +4.85 (xGD) so they are comfortable with this approach. Defense has led the way for the Clarets’ good form before the stoppage of play. Burnley has allowed only one goal in the last three matches while giving up just two combined goals over their last six matches. But the Clarets have scored just four times in their last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: Burnley will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at home to Man City in the reverse fixture on December 3rd. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their last five opportunities to host the Clarets in Etihad Stadium. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D7-L12) is winless in their last three matches after suffering an embarrassing 4-0 loss at Chelsea in their last match back on March 8th. Liverpool (W27-D1-L1) returns to the pitch after a 2-1 win over Bournemouth back on March 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I question the motivation of this Liverpool team returning from the three-month hiatus with little to play for. The Reds are a commanding 22 points up in 1st place in the EPL table so their championship is all but guaranteed. Liverpool was also eliminated already in the Champions League in a loss in the Round of 16 to Real Madrid so manager Jurgen Klopp does not have any expectations for his squad to prepare for an August run to defend their European championship. It has been a magical twelve or so months for the Reds — but it is probably impossible for them to continue to play at the incredible level that they had enjoyed. While they have 82 points in the EPL this season, the deeper metrics suggest that they should have only earned 59.61 expected points (xPTS) which is a dramatic dropoff (and below Manchester City’s xPTS mark). They have outscored their opponents by +45 goals this year in league play — but their expected goals differential drops to +32.34 (xGD). Cracks in their armor were showing before the stoppage in play. After the disappointing loss to Real Madrid, Liverpool then averaged just 1.55 expected goals (xG) in their final three EPL matches while allowing 1.44 expected goals (xGA) which is far below their scorching 2.16 xG - 1.12 xGA clip for the season. From the vantage point of my “eye test”, the Reds have lost some of their emotional intensity which resulted in less vigor in their effort on defense. Now Liverpool goes on the road where while they are W12-D1-L1 in EPL play for 37 points, their expected points on the road fall to just 26.00. Everton has been underachieving relatively to the deeper metrics all season. While they are in 13th place in the EPL table, their expected points are 6th best in the league. Those numbers suggest that the Toffees have been the second unluckiest team in the league. They had registered at least 2.0 expected goals per match in seven straight contests before their underwhelming effort at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Everton has played much better since manager Carlo Ancelotti was appointed to replace Marco Silva in late December. Ancelotti is the real deal with three Champions League titles as the manager of AC Milan and then Real Madrid. Ancelotti is considered a tactical genius with an ability to adapt his schemes to his talent along with the weaknesses of his opposition. The Toffees are W5-D3-L3 since Ancelotti took over which has improved the W8-D2-L9 clip they had under Silva. Over their last five matches, Everton led the EPL in big chances created on offense along with being second in total goals scored and third in expected goals. The Toffees were also second in expected goals allowed so they have played well on both ends of the pitch. Ancelotti has unlocked the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in EPL to record at least one big chance in eight straight match weeks. Overall, Everton is 2nd in the EPL since Ancelotti took over by averaging 2.17 xG — and they are 6th in the league on defense with a 1.37 xGA mark. This is a very underrated side. They host this match at Goodison Park where they are W1-D3-L1 in their five matches against a traditional big six opponent well scoring 6 goals and allowing just 6 goals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played to a draw in six of their last seven Merseyside Derby’s at Everton. The Toffees will be very motivated to pull the upset as they lost the reverse fixture to Liverpool by a 5-2 score on December 4th before then losing to the Reds on January 11th by a 1-0 score in FA Cup play against a roster filled mostly of younger players. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-TV Match of the Year with Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W10-D13-L6) was unbeaten in their last five English Premier League matches before the stoppage of play with their 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion on March 7th. West Ham United (W7-D6-L16) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Arsenal back on March 7th in their last match.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves were unbeaten in their last five games in the English Premier League while posting clean sheets in four of those contests. They are also still alive for the Europa League championship as their last match before the break-in play was a 1-1 draw at Olympiakos Piraeus in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches. Depth is an issue for this West Midlands team so the three-month break offers them an advantage as they are rested for this final run of matches. Wolverhampton is currently in 7th place in the EPL table while remaining alive to qualify for one of the four available Champions League slots. The deeper metrics are bullish on the Wolves as they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-two of their twenty-nine matches in the EPL this season. Wolverhampton ranks 5th in the league in expected points (xPTS). Over their last eight matches, the Wolves were posting an expected goals (xG) scoring mark of 2.08 while holding their opponents to just 0.94 expected goals (xGA) — and they held the advantage in this metric after matches with top-level teams Manchester United, Tottenham, and even 1st place Liverpool during that span. Now this team goes on the road where they rank 3rd in the EPL in xPTS. West Ham was just W1-D2-L6 in their last nine matches before the stoppage of play. Defense has been a major weakness for this team as they rank 2nd-to-last in the league by allowing 2.05 expected goals per match. The return of David Moyes as their manager at the end of December did not rectify this problem. The Hammers have allowed the second-most Big Chances for their opponents along with the second most shots inside the box since Moyes took over the reins of this team for the second time after he was skipper for the team in 2017-18. West Ham has generated only 8 points in their ten matches under Moyes when allowing 1.94 expected goals per match which is the 4th worst mark in the league during the span. West Ham hosts this match without fans in London Stadium where they are suffering with an expected goal differential of -5.61.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham has lost their last three matches against Wolverhampton after their 2-0 loss at Molineaux on December 4th. Look for the Wolves to outclass the Hammers who are struggling in 17th place in the EPL table. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D9-L6) remained unbeaten in their last six matches on Monday with their 1-1 draw at Levante. Barcelona (W20-D4-L5) has won seven of their last eight matches with their 2-0 victory over Leganes on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla suffered a hard-luck draw in that match on Monday as they scored an own goal in the 87th minute to forfeit their impending 3 points with the victory. They have yet to see an opposing player score against them in their two matches since the return to play. The Andalusians are in 3rd place in the La Liga table as they look to qualify for one of the four slots in the Champions League. Sevilla already had a strong attacking team but they fortified their stable of forwards in the winter transfer period by signing the 23-year old Youssef En-Nesryi along with acquiring Suso on loan from AC Milan. They join their summer transfer in Lucas Ocampos who is their leading scorer this season. Over their last ten matches, the Andalusians have lost now twice while posting 1.64 expected goals (xG) and allowing just 1.17 expected goals (xGA). They host this match where they are unbeaten since December while losing only two of their fourteen matches. They have an impressive +0.97 net expected goal differential when playing at home. And while some bettors may look to the fact that they have only produced 15 points in their last eight home matches, they have posted an impressive +1.03 net expected goal differential in those matches which suggests they were the victim of some unfortunate circumstances. Barcelona has won eight of their ten matches since manager Quique Setien took over the team in January. But both of their losses under Setien have taken place on the road against Real Madrid and Valencia. The reigning La Liga champions have not been as dominant when playing on the road as they are averaging just 1.5 points per road match which is their lowest mark in a decade — and their expected 1.64 points per match on the road indicates they have not been particularly unlucky with those results. The Catalonians have just a +3 net goal differential when playing on the road — and the expected goals metric concurs with only that slight edge as they are just +0.30 net expected goal differential per match when playing on the road. In their victory over Leganes on Tuesday, they only generated 0.88 non-penalty kick expected goals which is not very impressive. Superstar Lionel Messi did score the final goal in that match via a penalty kick. Yet they are averaging 2.34 expected goals per game at home — and now they go back on the road where they are scoring just 1.48 expected goals per match. Barca has feasted on the lesser teams in the league like the last place Leganes this season — they have only 9 points in their last seven matches against teams in the top half of the table.

FINAL TAKE: Barcelona did defeat Sevilla in the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 6th in their 4-0 victory at home at Camp Nou. But the underlying metrics suggest that the match was much closer than expected as Sevilla won the expected goals battle by a 3.27 to 2.46 mark. The Andalusians have a good chance to pull the upset on this Barcelona team that has been vulnerable on the road. A draw may be likely which makes getting the +0.5 goal very valuable. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Match of the Year with the Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D9-L8) returns to the pitch for the first time since they defeated LASK on the road by a 5-0 score in Europa League action on March 12th. Tottenham (W11-D8-L10) last played in the second leg of the Round of 16 of the Champions League where they were eliminated by RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score on March 10th.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils had found their form under manager Gunnar Solskjaer as they had not been beaten in their last eleven matches across all competitions while scoring 29 goals over that span and conceding goals just twice. Man United was not simply feasting against weaker competition either as four of those eight victories came against teams currently residing in the top-six spots in the EPL table including Manchester City who they defeated in their last EPL match on March 8th by a 2-0 score. That was no fluke either against two-time defending EPL champions (and the best statistical team this year in the EPL according to the expected goals metric) — they won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.75 margin in that contest. The winter signing of midfielder Bruno Fernandes jumpstarted this team. The Portuguese star from Sporting Lisbon brought this team a risk-taking play-maker that they have been missing. Since Gameweek 25, the Red Devils are second in the EPL in shots on target. Now this team takes the pitch again healthy with forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba back from injuries that have sidelined both for much of the season. Rashford is the team’s best scorer — and he should thrive with a new partner in Fernandes on the pitch. Pogba is the real wildcard here as the enigmatic French star has not contributed much over the last two seasons. But do not underestimate Pogba’s talent — he was a key component in France’s World Cup victory in 2018 and tends to shine when surrounded with other elite players. Despite not being healthy all season, Man United sports an impressive W6-D4-L1 mark in their eleven matches against the top-eight teams in the EPL table while allowing just nine goals with five clean sheets. Their lone loss was at Liverpool who are running away with the EPL title. Now at full strength, the Red Devils could become very, very good for the rest of this unique season. Tottenham also gets healthy again with Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Moussa Sissoko, Steven Bergwijn, and Tangy Ndombele all recovered from the injuries they were dealing with before the stoppage in March. But the Spurs will be without one of their key pieces in the midfield with Dele Alli suspended for this match. Kane is a bit of a mystery for me as I worry that the 26-year old may be wearing down after years of extended service for this franchise along with the English national team. But the problems for this Tottenham side that are winless in their last six matches are more endemic than just some ill-timed midseason knocks. Manager Maurice Pochettino took this team to the Finals of the Champions League to conclude last season (where they lost to Liverpool) — but he returned for his sixth season with the franchise with a group of players that had lost interest in his leadership. The ensuing slow start prompted his firing in mid-November where he was replaced by the enigmatic Jose Mourinho. One of the tactical changes that Mourinho deployed was to abandon the pressing style that Pochettino favored that was no longer succeeding for counter-attacking tactics. Unfortunately for the Spurs, the results have been dreadful on the defensive side of the pitch for this team. In the seventeen matches under Mourinho, Tottenham have 29 expected goals allowed mark which is 5th worst in the EPL over that span — and their -2.6 expected goal differential in those matches in 12th in the league. Over their last ten matches, the Spurs averaging an xGA mark of 2.08 while twice allowing their opponents to cross the 3.0 expected goals mark. In their last EPL match against Burnley, they allowed a team not known for their attacking prowess to pepper them with 21 shots in eight on target in what concluded in a 1-1 draw on March 7th. Seeing the return of these talented offensive players will help — but the talent and cohesion of the roster of defensive backs remains a question. Against the traditional Big Six EPL teams this season, Tottenham is just W1-D2-L5 while conceding 13 times and scoring only 9 goals.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Manchester United back on December 4th. Tottenham has generated 26 of their 41 points in the EPL at home this season in their new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — but the lack of fans in this contest will detract from their home-field advantage in this facility. The Spurs have lost two of their three opportunities to host a Big Six side this season. 25* EPL Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). THE SITUATION: FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L18) looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg last Sunday. Borussia Dortmund (W20-D6-L5) has won five of their last six matches with their 1-0 win at Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: That was the fourth clean sheet for the Black-Yellows in their six matches since the return to play last month. Borussia Dortmund has only allowed three goals in those six contests. Manager Lucien Favre has transformed his team from a freewheeling attacking unit into a side that prioritizes sturdy defense. BVB has allowed only five goals in their last ten matches across all competitions — and they have surrendered just three goals in their last ten matches in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, they have registered a clean sheet in eight of their last twelve matches in league play. Borussia Dortmund returns home where they lead the league in both goals allowed and in expected goals allowed (xGA). On paper, the Black-Yellows also have a very potent offense that is second in the league with 82 goals scored this season. But Borussia Dortmund has been wildly fortunate with that haul since their expected goals drop to just 59.71. And while the BVB has scored 46 times at home, their xG at home also plummets to a 33.52 mark. Since the return to play, Dortmund has failed to register even 1.0 xG in three of their six matches — and they have only topped 1.76 xG once in those contests. FSV Mainz has not scored a goal in four straight maths — and they are just six goals in their last eleven contests. But Achim Beierlorzer has been seeing his team play better defense since he took over the club midseason. The 05ers have only given up 10 goals in their six matches since the return. They also limited Augsburg to just 0.76 expected goals on Sunday in that narrow 1-0 loss.

FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund produced a 4-0 shutout victory over FSV Mainz back on December 14th in the reverse fixture between these two teams. The 05ers will struggle to score against an even more compact foe in BVB this time around — but they should allow fewer goals in this rematch. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS2-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). THE SITUATION: Sheffield United (W11-D10-L7) returns to the pitch for the first time since March 7th when they defeated Norwich City at home by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D4-L17) has lost five games in a row across all competitions after their 4-0 loss at Leicester City back on March 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Blades were unbeaten in their last six matches before the stoppage in play. They had only lost to the top two teams in the league in Liverpool and Manchester City in their last thirteen matches on the road in league play. Sheffield United’s defensive-first approach has been very successful against the non-power teams in the English Premier League. In their nineteen matches against the traditional non-Power Six, the Blades are W10-D6-L3. They are also unbeaten in their eighth matches on the road in the EPL against non-Big Six sides with four victories and four draws. They have won seven of their last nine matches with two draws being their lone blemishes against non-Big Six sides while only allowing five goals in these contests. Aston Villa has allowed 12.24 expected goals in their last four league matches to compound to their defensive woes this season. The Villans are last in the EPL in both goals allowed and expected goals allowed. The metrics are not encouraging with this team at all either as they rank last in the league with an expected goal differential of -27.8 xGD. Aston Villa returns to action having allowed the most shots inside the box through the first twenty-nine game weeks since that metric started being measured. They have not registered a clean sheet in nine straight games. The Villans also do not pressure the opposing goalkeeper enough as they have the fourth feast big chances in the EPL while ranking last in both big chances and expected goals scored over their last ten matches. Aston Villa is getting their talented midfielder John McGinn back for this match after he suffered an injury in the fall — but his game fitness for this match is in question after the long layoff.

FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back in December. Aston Villa will struggle to score against the compact Blades defense — but they will likely allow at least one goal as their expected goals allowed of 2.45 xGA is -0.32 xGA worse than the next most porous defensive team in the EPL. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the      Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). THE SITUATION: VfL Wolfsburg (W12-D10-L9) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw at home to Freiburg on Saturday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L9) has lost two straight matches after their 2-1 loss at Bayern Munich last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE VFL WOLFSBURG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Wolfsburg has been solid since the return to action last month with their W3-D1-L2 mark in those six contests. Die Wolfe finds themselves in 6th place in the Bundesliga table while being 4 points safe to qualify for next fall’s Europa League. The metrics suggest they have underachieved this season as their expected points (xPTS) from the expected goals projections places them 5th best in the league. They are led by the Danish superstar Wout Weghost who scored twice on Saturday to raise his goals mark to 18 on the season across all competitions. Wolfsburg has registered at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in four straight matches. Now they go on the road where they have won three straight matches with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +3.42 in those games. Die Wolfe defeated 4th place Beyer Leverkusen on the road back on May 25th by a dominant 4-1 score. Wolfsburg is 4th in the Bundesliga in xPTS while ranking in the top-four on the road in both xG and xGA. Borussia Monchengladbach has struggled since the return with just a W2-D2-L2 mark while scoring just 10 goals while allowing 9 goals. The scoring prowess for Die Fohlen has slowed as of late as they have scored only one goal in their last two matches. Furthermore, Borussia Monchengladbach has scored only five combined goals in their last four matches — and they have scored more than one goal in just one of their last five games. They were without forward Alassane Plea over the weekend as he was suspended for that match against Bayern Munich. But while he will return, the Foals are undermanned up top still with Breel Embolo dealing with a calf injury that kept him from starting on Saturday and with Marcus Thuram dealing with an injury that had him limp off the field in that game against the Bavarians. Borussia Monchengladbach hosts this match where they rank tied for 6th in the league with 20 goals allowed — but their xGA at home drops to 11th in the Bundesliga with a 27.48 mark.

FINAL TAKE: Wolfsburg won the reverse fixture at home by a 4-1 score back on December 15th. Borussia Monchengladbach is not playing as well since the return from the stoppage of play. They also appear to be feeling the pressure to finish in the top four spots in the standings to secure one of the four Champions League qualifications. Wolfsburg can pull the upset in this match — but they would be happy with a very attainable draw. 25* Bundesliga Tuesday FS2-TV Match of the Year with VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). THE SITUATION: Real Sociedad (W14-D4-L9) returns to the pitch for the first time this afternoon since their 2-1 win at Eibar back on March 10th. Osasuna (W8-D10-L9) also comes off a victory when they last played in March with their 1-0 win over Espanyol.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL SOCIEDAD MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: La Real was playing very good football before the stoppage of play three months ago. They had won seven of their last eight matches with five of those contests being in La Liga action with the lone loss being to first-place Barcelona. Manager Imanol Alguacil’s side began the week tied for 4th place with a very real opportunity to qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top four in the league. La Real is a young and vibrant team that plays an attractive form of football. The underlying metrics suggest they deserve the success they have achieved this season. Their net expected goal differential is 5th best in La Liga. They have registered clean sheets in seven of their fourteen victories in league play. They also have very tough to beat at home at Reale Arena where they have won seven straight contests including their last four against La Liga opponents. Real Sociedad is tied for second in the league with 27 goals scored — and they have generated at least 2.48 expected goals in five of their last six games at home. They also rank 2nd in the league in expected goals allowed in league play when playing at home. La Real has only surrendered three goals at home in their last seven home games. Additionally, they have won five of their last seven home games against teams in the bottom half of the La Liga table. Osasuna is in 11th place in the twenty-team league. Motivation may be an issue for this midlevel side that is 9 points clear of the relegation zone but 8 points outside qualifying for the Europa League. They had lost five of their last six contests before their win over Espanyol in their final game before COVID-19 forced cancellations. Los Rojillos had scored only nine goals in their nine matches played in 2020. They now go back on the road where they have won just once in their last five games. Osasuna plays much better on their home pitch where they have a +10.4 net expected goal differential — but in their thirteen road matches in La Liga they are burdened with a -8.6 net expected goal differential. Just 33% of their expected goals this season have occurred away from home. They have also allowed at least two goals in four of their last six games on the road. To make matters even worse, there may not be a La Liga team that returns to action so far from full strength as Los Rojillos. Ruben Garcia is suspended for this match from his actions back in March. Kike Barja, Fran Merida, Robert Ibanev, Facundo Roncaglia, and Chimy Avila are all dealing with injuries which place their status to play in doubt. Osasuna is not a team with the luxury of depth. They were promoted to La Liga this season after winning the Segunda Division last year.

FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad has won the last three meetings between these two teams as they followed up their 4-3 victory on league play in December with a 3-1 victory on January 29th in a Copa del Rey match. Osasuna has not defeated Real Sociedad in the Spanish top-flight competition since May of 2012. With Real Sociedad much closer to full strength and with much to play for still, expect them to earn the victory. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports-TV Match of the Year with Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L8) bounced-back from a 4-2 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Saturday with a 3-0 victory over FC Saarbrucken on Tuesday in the Semifinals of the DFB Pokal Cup. FC Schalke 04 (W9-D11-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Schalke is probably playing the worst soccer in the Bundesliga right now — that was their first point on Sunday in their five matches in the return to action last month. They have only scored twice in those five games while conceding 11 times — and they have only won the expected goals advanced metrics battle once in those five contests. The Royal Blues are now winless in their last twelve matches while generating a mere 5 points over that span. Schalke was probably overachieving relative to the deeper shot numbers they were putting up earlier in the season — but the Regression Gods have finally paid a visit to this team. They have only scored four goals in their twelve matches since their last victory back on January 17th. Manager David Wagner did embrace a youth movement in the middle of the season — but the former Huddersfield manager in the English Premier League has been rumored to have lost the locker room. Schalke certainly fits the prototype of a team that has nothing to play for with them being now 5 points out of the last Europa League qualifying spot in the Bundesliga but being safe from relegation. The Royal Blues are simply not showing much ambition on offense. Their leading scorer is Suat Serder with seven goals which are not a good sign considering that he is a holding midfielder dedicated mostly to playing defense. Schalke has been held scoreless in eight of their last twelve matches. The Royal Blues have also not had a clean sheet since February. They return home to Veltins-Arena where they have the second-lowest expected goals total. And they will also be undermanned for this match with Serder along with Amine Harit, Omar Mascerell, and Guido Burostailer all out with injuries. Bayer Leverkusen has not been great in the return to action last month as they have lost two of their six matches across all competitions. But Die Werkself has still won six of their last eight league matches along with ten of their last fourteen games in the Bundesliga. They have scored in nineteen straight matches whole posting a healthy 21 goals in their last eight league contests. This team should remain very motivated to earn 3 points with the win considering that they are tied for 3rd place in the table — and they have a huge opportunity to pull ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach after they lost at Bayern Munich yesterday to ensure one of the top four spots to qualify for next year’s Champions League. Die Werkself have played better on the road this season with ten victories in their fifteen league matches away from home. They are tied for 2nd place in total points on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen will also get two key players back on the pitch for this contest. Their 20-year old superstar Kai Havertz has been dealing with an injury but he appears healthy enough to return for this match. He had scored five goals since the return to play last month. And the team’s star striker Kevin Holland is set to return for this first time since the stoppage of play. Die Werkself won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on December 7th. Expect a dominant win against a Schalke team that seems to have packed it in for the proverbial beach. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). THE SITUATION: Levante (W10-D3-L14) returns to the pitch in the Spanish top-flight professional soccer league after last eking out a 1-1 draw at home to Granada back on March 8th. Valencia (W11-D9-L7) followed up a 1-1 draw at Deportivo Alaves on March 6th in their last La Liga by losing at home to Atalanta by a 4-3 score in an empty stadium to end their Champions League run in the Round of 16 with an aggregate 8-4 loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Valencia’s Champions League campaign is now complete this season but manager Albert Celades will be trying to motivate his team to qualify for next year’s European championship as they are 4 points out of the last qualifying position in the La Liga table. Los Che hosts this match in front of an empty stadium where they have scored 23 times which is 6th best in the league — and they have scored in fifteen straight matches on their home pitch. Those offensive numbers are right-in-line with their overall scoring marks as they are 6th in La Liga with 38 goals scored. However, where this team has taken a step back from last year’s Copa Del Rey championship team under previous manager Marcelino is on the defensive end of the pitch. They have surrendered 39 goals in league play this season — but that mark rises to 43.83 expected goals allowed (xGA) per match which is the 3rd highest mark in La Liga in that metric. They have only registered seven clean sheets this season while allowing 15 shots per match. While they rank tied for 6th in the league in the fewest goals allowed at home, their expected goals allowed when playing at home is the 4th worst mark in La Liga. Their backline is also being reconfigured for this match with Ezequiel Garay and Gabriel Paulista both dealing with knocks that will keep them out for this match. Levante has allowed the 5th most goals in La Liga but they rank last in the league with an xGA mark of 2.17 per game. They also are last in La Liga in xGA when playing on the road. They have allowed at least two goals in five straight league matches away from home. But manager Paco Lopez’s counter-attacking approach has resulted in them scoring in nine of their last thirteen matches on the road. 59% of Granotas’ matches this season have gone Over 2.5 combined goals — and they have played eight of their last nine matches on the road Over 2.5 (so the worst-case scenario for this match should be a Push with the Total set at 3 in most spots).

FINAL TAKE: This Valencia Derby is typically a higher-scoring affair. The last four meetings between these two teams have seen 18 combined goals after Valencia won the reverse fixture between these two teams in December by a 4-2 score in a wild affair with sloppy defense where Los Che rallying from a 2-0 deficit. Valencia has scored at least three goals in their last four opportunities to host Levante in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W16-D11-L3) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Paderborn last Saturday. Hoffenheim (W12-D7-L11) also comes off a draw on Saturday in their 2-2 result at Fortuna Dusseldorf.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was another frustrating result for the Red Bulls who have settled for seven draws in their last eleven matches despite not losing any of those league contests. RB Leipzig has scored thirteen goals in their five matches since the return to action last month. But while they have surrendered the second-fewest goals in the Bundesliga, they have given up five goals in their last three matches. The defensive cohesion of this team will be stretched for this contest after center back Dayot Upamecano being suspended for this match after he was issued a red card in that draw with Paderborn. Look for the Red Bulls’ scoring attack led by Timo Werner to be their catalyst for this match. RB Leipzig has scored 27 goals in their last thirteen matches — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals (xG) scored. This team also leads the Bundesliga in xG when playing away from home this season after finding the back of the net nine times in their two matches on the road since the return to play. Hoffenheim reacted to their loss on Saturday by sacking their manager Alfred Schreuder. Disagreements in philosophy were explained as the reason for his firing with ownership frustrated with the underwhelming attack coming from this side. Die Kraichgauer has seen thirteen different players score this season but they are just tied for 9th place in the league in goals scored. The tactics for this match should see Hoffenheim play with even more aggressive and attacking flourish. They will also benefit from the return to the pitch of Andrej Kramaric who was a sub on Saturday after being out since March with an injury. Kramaric leads the team with seven goals this year. But the increased emphasis on scoring tactics will place even more pressure on the Die Kraichgauer defense that ranks 7th in the Bundesliga with the highest expected goals allowed (xGA). When playing at home, Hoffenheim has allowed the 4th most goals which are right-in-line with their 4th highest xGA on their home pitch at Rhein-Neckar-Arena. To compound matters, they will be without their captain and center back Benjamin Hubner quarterbacking their backline after he was issued a red card last Saturday in the 9th minute of that match. This spells trouble against RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim has allowed 39 goals this season inside the penalty area — and the Red Bulls have an XG of 27.60 this season in that area of the field. Die Kraichgauer has scored in ten of their last twelve matches at home so they should contribute to reaching the Over for this match.

FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann was the manager at Hoffenheim for the previous four seasons before getting banned by the Red Bulls last summer — so he will understand the defensive talent of Die Kraichgauer. The Red Bulls won the last meeting between these two teams back on December 7th in their 3-1 victory in a game where the expected combined goals were 5.1. The last eight contests between these two sides have seen 29 combined goals. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). THE SITUATION: The DFB-Pokal Cup is the national championship of the German professional leagues and considered the second most prestigious championship to the Bundesliga title in Germany. Bayern Munich reached the Semifinals of the DFB-Pokal back on March 3rd with their 1-0 win at FC Schalke 04. Eintracht Frankfurt joined them a day later with their 2-0 win at home against Werder Bremen in the quarterfinals of this event. Bayern Munich hosts this contest in their Allianz Arena.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are cruising their way to their eighth straight Bundesliga title after defeating Bayer Leverkusen on the road on Saturday by a 4-2 score. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since manager Hansi Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is now W23-D1-L2 in their twenty-six matches under Flick in all competitions. Since the return to action last month, the Bavarians have won all five of their matches while scoring 17 goals and allowing just four goals while facing two of the top four teams in the Bundesliga in Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. They now host this match where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with nine victories. The Bavarians have averaged 5.0 goals per game in their two matches at home since the return to acton while conceding only two goals. While asking even the best of teams to win by at least three goals is asking a lot, there are a few unique circumstances that make a Bayern Munich blowout likely. Their two strikers, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller will be suspended for their Bundesliga match this weekend after both received their fifth yellow cards of the season last week in league play. Flick will likely keep both players on the pitch for most if not all of this match since they will be unavailable for the weekend. Flick also has his star central midfielder back in Thiago who has missed time with a groin strain. The Spaniard is one of the best passers in the world — and he has gelled with Kimmich since the later was moved up into the midfield. Eintracht Frankfurt looks to bounce-back from a bad 2-0 loss at home to FSV Mainz 05 last Saturday. The expected goals project had Mainz scoring 3.23 xG while allowing just 0.44 xGA — so that result could have been even worse. Die Adler is safe from relegation in the German top flight but they are in the bottom half of the table tied for 11th place. They have lost three of their six matches since the return to action while allowing 14 goals in those games. They have surrendered 22 goals in their last eight matches. They go back on the road where they have been miserable with ten losses in their fifteen league contests. To compound matters, this team will be missing some key pieces for this showdown. Serbian winger, Filip Kostic, is suspended for this match after getting tabbed with a four-game suspension in Eintracht Frankfurt’s last DFB-Pokal match in March. Die Adler is also dealing with two injuries with their leading scorer Gonzalo Paciencia and defensive midfielder Gelson Fernandes both dealing with knocks.

FINAL TAKE: There is little chance Bayern Munich will take this match lightly since Eintracht Frankfurt defeated them by a 5-1 score back on November 2nd which was the final straw for their previous manager Niko Kovac. The Bavarians got their revenge from that loss on May 23rd with a 5-2 win at home against Die Adler — but Flick’s team will remember that half the goals they have allowed since the return to action came in that match. This is a single-elimination match so there is no consolation for a close loss — meaning Eintracht Frankfurt will need to be more aggressive if and when they fall behind in this match. Expect a blowout with Lewandowski and Muller likely to be on the pitch for a long time given they are suspended their next league match. 25* Soccer ESPN Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.

REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Their expected goal differential of +0.79 net xG is 4th best in the league over that span. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch. While scoring just 1.31 expected goals (xG) and surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has averaged 2.03 xGF and allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches with an impressive +1.11 expected goal differential under Labbadia’s stewardship. Two additions in the transfer window have also played a big role for this side with Matheus Cunha and Krzysztof Piatek. While Cunha is a doubt to play this week as he deals with a concussion, that should ensure that Piatek starts up top alongside captain Vedad Ibisevic. The pricey Polish star from AC Milan scored the final goal in their win over Augsburg last week in the third minute of extended time after 90 minutes had passed. Hertha Berlin has scored at least two goals in six straight matches while tallying 16 goals over that span. They go back on the road where they have not lost in seven matches which includes an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig two matches ago. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. That match was before the arrivals of Labbadia as manager along with Cunha and Piatek as transfers — and while Cunha may not play in this match, the betting market has not caught up to the dramatic improvements Die Alte Dame has made in the second half of the season. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE  GOAL-LINE: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. Now they go back on the road where they are W7-D3-L4 while going unbeaten in their last five matches with three victories and two draws while posting a net expected goals margin of +3.87 in those contests. Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 2nd in the Bundesliga with only 15 goals allowed in their fourteen league matches away from home. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. Since returning to play last month, they are W0-D2-L2 while scoring just four times. The advanced metrics indicate this is the most overvalued team in Bundesliga. While they are tied for 8th place with 38 points, their expected points (xPTS) plummets to just 13th in the league at 32.28. They have been outscored by three goals this season that betrays their record where they have won ten of their nineteen league matches — but their expected goals net differential of -17.73 screams of regression. They have averaged just 1.00 expected goals scored over their last ten matches with that mark dropping to just 0.70 xG over their four matches since the return from quarantine which is the worst mark in the Bundesliga. Now they stay at home where they have lost five of their last seven matches. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed at home in the Black Forest which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches yet they have a -5.94 net expected goals margin in those contests. This maneuver has not sparked this team. In their 557 minutes playing in a 4-4-2, Freiburg is producing just a 0.90 xG mark — and they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense.

FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. The Foals then won both friendlies between these two clubs on successive days in early January. With Borussia Monchengladbach needing to win this match to maintain their Champions League aspirations next year, expect them to pull out the victory on the road in an empty stadium. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W15-D10-L3) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw against Hertha Berlin on Wednesday. FC Koln (W10-D4-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at Hoffenheim last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig is unbeaten in their last nine matches — but they have only secured three victories over that span. They have scored eight times in their three matches since the return to action in May — and they have the highest expected goal (xG) mark in the league over that span. They have also scored 22 goals over their last eleven matches. The Red Bulls are 3rd in the league with 70 goals scored — and their expected goals mark is 2nd best in the Bundesliga. They also have the most expected goals when playing on the road. RB Leipzig is also an excellent defensive team but they will be without starting left full-back Marcel Halstenberg who is suspended for this match. Koln has allowed seven goals in their three matches since the return of play. The Billy Goats have been inconsistent in these games perhaps not fully motivated since they are mired in the middle of the standings — safe from relegation but unlikely to be able to move up to the 6th spot to qualify for the Europa League next year. Koln blew a two-goal lead in their opening match against Mainz before rallying from a two-goal deficit as a home favorite to eke out a 2-2 draw with lowly Fortuna Dusseldorf. Then on Wednesday, the Billy Goats fell behind by a 3-0 score before getting their offense going — and they ended that match with an xG of 2.24. And despite scoring only four goals in their three matches in May, they ranked 2nd in the Bundesliga with 7.4 expected goals (2.56 xG/match) which is second only to RB Leipzig in that metric.

FINAL TAKE: FC Koln will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig back on November 23rd. Their attacker, Cordoba, has scored nine of his 11 goals at home this season while RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner has scored 14 of his 24 goals on the road. Expect a wild, higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Monday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund (W21-D4-L4) enters this match looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Tuesday. Paderborn (W4-D7-L14) is winless in their last nine matches after pulling out a nil-nil draw at Augsburg on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Borussia Dortmund was stymied by the Bayern Munich defense as they registered a low 0.57 expected goal (xG) mark in their loss on Tuesday which dropped them to 7 points out of first place. Look for the BVB to be flat in this match. This team’s scoring prowess has declined significantly as of late even before playing the Bavarians. While Borussia Dortmund ranks 2nd to them with 74 goals scored, their expected goals on the season based on the deeper analytics plummets to just 52.68 which not only ranks just 5th in the league but also represents the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected goals. So this team was due a visit from the Regression Gods — and it appears these deities have made their presence known since the return to play this month. The Black-Yellows have scored only six combined goals over their three May matches — and yet their expected goals in these games translate into just 2.78 xGF over those contests for a microscopic 0.93 xGF per match. Regression only explains part of that massive drop off. Jordan Sancho plays a critical part in the offensive attack — but the 20-year old did not respond to self-quarantine in the same way many older professionals have. Sancho returned this month lacking so much fitness that manager Lucien Favre has chosen not to start him. Sancho did substitute in the second half against Bayern Munich on Tuesday but he is a step or two slow which neutralizes the dynamic skillset he displayed earlier in the season. To compound matters for this team’s offensive attack, not only have then been without captain Marcos Reus on their forward line but they will now be without 19-year old forward phenom Erling Haaland who is now out with a knee injury. Borussia Dortmund has seen a steady improvement in their defensive play in the second half of the season. BVB has clean sheets in two of their last three matches along with five of their last seven. They have limited their last eight opponents to just 0.87 expected goals. They go on the road where they rank tied for 9th with 23 goals allowed — but their xGA away from home improves to the 3rd best ranking in the Bundesliga. Paderborn may be in last place in the German top flight but they have pulled out three draws in their three matches since the return of play while generating two clean sheets and allowing only one goal. But they have only scored one time over that span of three matches. Manager Steffen Baumgart had his team playing a direct style which would go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the league — but quarantine must have had him hit the tape because his group has played very cautiously since returning to the pitch. In their three matches this month, Paderborn had held their opponents to just 1.12 expected goals per match which are far below their 1.86 xGA for the season. But they are averaging only 1.00 expected goals this month — and they have a low 0.82 xG mark over their last five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will struggle to score in this match — not only do they rank 16th in the league in expected goals at home (versus being tied for 12th in actual goals at home) and they host a Dortmund side that are tied in 9th in goals allowed on the road but who rank 3rd in xGA in goals against away from home. 25* Bundesliga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W9-D8-L11) enters this match coming off an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig on Wednesday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L13) comes off a nil-nil draw at home to Paderborn on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Hertha Berlin showed no fear in traveling to Red Bull Arena to face an RB Leipzig side that the Expected Goals (xG) analytics ranks as the second-best team in the Bundesliga. The metrics for that match on Wednesday projected that Die Alte Dame should have defeated RB Leipzig by a 1.74 to 0.58 margin based on the empirical data from the quality and quantity of shots for both teams in that match. This Hertha Berlin team is much better than their record indicates at this point of the season. Die Alte Dame began the year with high expectations with a talented roster along with a high profile new manager in former USNMT skipper Jurgen Klinsmann. But Klinsmann was sacked in February over conflicts with ownership regarding the direction of this franchise. Hertha Berlin was very aggressive in the January transfer window as they brought in two talented strikers in Krzysztof Piatek and Matheus Cunha. While Piatek was the more glamorous and expensive signing coming over from AC Milan, Cunha has so far made the bigger impact on the pitch with four goals in his seven matches for his new team. Die Alte Dame also replaced interim manager Alexander Nouri who took over for Klinsmann with Bruno Labbadia in April during the stoppage of play. Labbadia has led his team to two wins and that draw at RB Leipzig earlier this week while scoring 9 goals while producing two clean sheets. Hertha Berlin is now unbeaten in their last five matches while scoring at least five goals in all those contests with the new talent at forward jumpstarting their offense. This team begins the day in 10th place in the German top-flight table while being 7 points out of 6th place which is necessary to qualify for next year’s Europa League. Yet this team is playing with as much momentum as any team in the league under their new manager as they continue to gain cohesion and build for next year. Augsburg may be lacking motivation with them being ranked 12th in the table — 4 points above relegation but even farther away from the 6th place Europa slot. Fuggerstadter has generated only 11 points over their last thirteen matches — and they have won only twice in their last ten games. Augsburg only picked up 1 point on Wednesday against a Paderborn side that is in the basement in the Bundesliga — and the xG projected a loss by a 1.25-0.84 margin in that contest so they were probably fortunate with the draw. They did snap a five-game losing streak on the road last weekend when they defeated Schalke — but that opponent is mired in a terrible ten-match winless streak as they spiral in the wrong direction. A good case can be made that Fuggerstadter has benefited from playing the two worst teams in the league right now over their last two contests. Finding offense has been the biggest problem as they have scored only seven combined goals over their last eight matches — and they were held scoreless in four of those contests. Forward Florian Niederlechner is the team’s leading scorer but he has been blanked in eight straight matches. They go back on the road where they have only scored three times in their last five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin will have the extra motivation in this contest to avenge a 4-0 loss at Augsburg back on November 24th. Fuggerstadter was playing much better in the fall — and it is now Die Alte Dame that is playing with much better form. 25* Bundesliga Match of the Month with the Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Werkself may have been ripe for an emotional letdown after they defeated Borussia Monchengladbach on the road by a 3-1 score to seize 4th place in the standings. But the loss on Tuesday dropped them back into 5th place which is one position outside on qualifying for next season’s Championship League. Bayer Leverkusen had been playing great — they had won nine of their last eleven matches while being unbeaten in twelve straight matches before suffering the upset earlier this week. But with still plenty to play for, manager Peter Bosz’s squad should respond with a strong effort. Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. Bayer Leverkusen has won nine of their fifteen matches on the road in league play — their 28 points away from home is tied for the second-most in the German top flight. Freiburg is the most overachieving side in the Bundesliga — while they are 8th on the table with 38 points, their expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed numbers drop to the 5th lowest in the league. Freiburg has only won one match in their last seven matches and just three times in 2020 — and they have won only four of their last sixteen contests. They were very fortunate to escape with the one point for their draw on Tuesday since the expected goal metric projected that they should have allowed 4.38 goals to Frankfurt while scoring just 0.82 goals — so they were graded with the most fortunate result last week. They had a 3-1 lead in the match ending the final 11 minutes of regulation before surrounding two goals in the next three minutes in settling for the draw. By the end of the match, they had allowed a whopping 21 shots with 13 of them being on target. It is luck on their end of the pitch which has been the biggest reason why they are over-performing their deeper metrics. While Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed, their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw on November 23rd — but Freiburg remains winless in their last five matches against Beyer Leverkusen. Only earning 1 point in that contest should ensure they do not take Freiburg lightly in this reverse fixture. Coming off the upset loss, look for Die Werkself to respond with a strong effort. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Month with the Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). THE SITUATION: Paderborn (W4-D6-L17) eked out their second straight draw since the return of play in the German top flight with their 1-1 draw at home against Hoffenheim last Saturday. Augsburg (W8-D6-L13) snapped a six-match winless streak on Sunday when they defeated Schalke on the road by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paderborn has received a burst of energy from forward Dennis Srbeny who has scored four of his team's last five goals with his strike on Saturday. This team has scored in nine of their last eleven matches with an exciting direct style-of-play under manager Steffen Baumgart who has his team go toe-to-toe with the top-level sides in the league. Paderborn is not going to park the bus in the back — especially when they are in last place in the Bundesliga and desperate for the three points that come with a victory. Paderborn has also conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes of the match in fourteen of their twenty-seven league matches this season — so they are frequently playing from behind. They have surrendered 55 goals this season which is the third most in the German top flight. Furthermore, Paderborn has only had four clean sheets in four of their last twenty-five matches — and they have pulled this feat off just once in their last eight contests. Augsburg has seen at least three combined goals scored in their first two matches since the return of play. They return home where they are 7th in the Bundesliga with 25 goals scored. They have scored at least one goal in twelve of their last thirteen matches in their WMK Arena — and eleven of their last twelve home matches have gone Over 2.5 combined goals scored. Florian Niederlechner may be due to score in this match as he has not found the back of the net in seven straight matches despite being the team’s leading scorer. Augsburg has also allowed the fourth-most goals in the Bundesliga at a 2.0 goals allowed per game rate.

FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will be looking to avenge a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg back on November 9th. The Fuggerstadter also employ an open style of play — so Paderborn should get plenty of scoring chances in this match. Augsburg is tied for 12th place in the table which puts them 6 points above the relegation zone. So while the Fuggerstadter are probably safe, they will still be looking to increase their home winning streak against Paderborn to fourteen straight matches. 25* Bundesliga Midweek Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W19-D4-L4) has won six straight matches while being unbeaten in thirteen straight games in the Bundesliga after their 5-2 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. Borussia Dortmund (W17-D6-L4) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to earn the two-goal victory as they only managed four shots in the match — and their expected goals based on the deeper metrics was just 0.91. The Black-and-Yellows have scored 74 goals this season — but the analytics are screaming for regression with this team given that their expected goals this year plummet to just 52.06 goals. While BVB is second in the German top-flight table with 57 points, their points based on expected goals fall to 50.48. Borussia Dortmund has the best record at home in the Bundesliga with a W10-D3-L0 mark for 33 points — but the xG metric projects those points to only accrue 27.39. Their 45 goals when playing at home drops significantly with the expected goals metric to just 31.06 xG. The Black-and-Yellows would certainly prefer that fans would be in the crowd for this Der Klassiker to help reproduce their famed “yellow wall.” This team is also dealing with injuries with forward (and captain) Marcos Reus out for this match with a knock while 20-year old phenom Jadon Sancho remains questionable with his injury. Borussia Dortmund is loaded with young talent — but experience in big matches like this is an issue. This team does not have the level of depth as Bayern Munich — and it is questionable how many of their starting XI would warrant the starting lineup if these two rosters were hypothetically merged. Bayern Munich may very well be the best team in Europe. They have won fourteen of their seventeen matches since they fired manager Niko Kovac to replace him with Hansi Flick. The Bavarians have won seven straight Bundesliga titles — and Flick reinvigorated this team by instituting a high press with a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bayern Munich’s defense has significantly improved under Flick as this team has done much better in coaxing suboptimal shots. Der Rekordmeister had registered five straight clean sheets before they surrendered two goals in a three-minute span on Saturday against Frankfurt. Led by forwards Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller along with 19-year old Canadian sensation Alphonso Davies at left wing, the Bavarians lead the German top-flight with 80 goals — and their 37 goals away from home are the most goals on the road in the league. Bayern Munich has won nine of their thirteen matches on the road in league play this season.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is in first-place by 4 points over Borussia Dortmund who is the next closest team to them in the standings — and even the expected goals metrics suggest they are slightly underachieving. The Bavarians are no fluke — and a victory in this match likely cements their eight-straight league championship. They will likely be without midfielder Thiago who is injured for this match — but this team has plenty of depth to replace him on the pitch. Bayern Munich blasted Borussia Dortmund by a 4-0 score in the reverse fixture back on November 9th — and they have won the last two spring showdowns with their primary Bundesliga rivals by a combined 11-0 score. Expect Bayern Munich to once again outclass this BVB side that has been very fortunate with their scoring success this season — especially with no home crowd to apply pressure to the road favorites in this match. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D3-L13) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 2-2 draw at home to FSV Mainz. Fortuna Dusseldorf (W5-D8-L13) also comes off a draw in their nil-nil results at home versus SC Paderborn last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: FC Koln was frustrated last week after blowing a 2-0 lead in that game. But this is still a side moving in the right direction having won eight of their last twelve matches outright. The Billy Goats opened the season losing ten of their first fourteen league matches but now find themselves in the middle at the table in 10th place and likely safe from relegation. This team has improved in the second half of the season with the acquisition of forward Mark Uth on loan from Schalke who has since scored five times while adding four assists in his eight matches with the team. FC Koln is projected as the 8th best team in the league when looking at the expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed this year. The Billy Goats had been playing better defense before the stoppage of play as they have allowed only three combined goals in their last four matches before surrendering two goals last week in the final 30 minutes of that contest. FC Koln has played much better at home lately as well with only one loss in their last five league contests to the first-place Bayern Munich. They have also generated 10 points in their last five home matches with three outright victories. Fortuna Dusseldorf may be demoralized after last week as they hit three posts in their scoreless draw with Paderborn. That was a crucial opportunity for Die Flingeraner to get themselves out of the relegation zone against the last-place team. Now they still find themselves 4 points out of 15th place. While Fortuna Dusseldorf has allowed 50 goals this season which is the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga, they are the bottom team in the league in expected goals allowed. They are also the second-worst team in the Bundesliga in expected points when playing on the road. To compound matters, this team will be without a key piece to their defense with Kaan Ayaan suspended for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card last week.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation is a concern for FC Koln with them seemingly safe from relegation but still 6 points out of 6th place which is the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. But the Billy Goats have the opportunity to avenge a 2-0 loss to Fortuna Dusseldorf back on November 3rd which was a match played amidst their dreary start to the season. Getting the bad taste out of their mouth from blowing a two-goal lead is the other motivating factor for this contest. The analytics indicate there is a significant difference between these two sides. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS1-TV Match of the Year with the FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W15-D5-L6) has won eight of their last ten matches across all competitions while going unbeaten in their last six games after their 4-1 win at Werder Bremen on Monday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D4-L6) has lost just once in their last eight matches after they dispatched of Eintracht Frankfurt on the road by a 3-1 score last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be an entertaining — and high-scoring — contest between two teams fighting for one of the four slots to qualify for the Champions League next season. Both of these engage in aggressive tactics on the pitch. Bayer Leverkusen is currently in 5th place in the German top-flight table just 2 points behind Borussia Monchengladbach who is in 3rd place. Die Werkself is led by a 20-year old sensation Kai Havertz who is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the pitch given his agility along with his 6’2 size. He is destined to be the next great number #10 position player for the German national team for at least the next two World Cup cycles. Manager Peter Bosz did have Havertz playing more of a defensive position in the first half of the season given the loss in the offseason of Julian Brandt who contributed seven goals last season. But Bosz has pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in the second half of the season — and Bayer Leverkusen has responded by scoring 14 goals over their last four matches. Their defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed goals in five of their last six matches along with ten of their last twelve contests. They only have three clean sheets on the road in league play this season — and they rank just 10th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. Borussia Monchengladbach has scored nine goals in their last four matches which have helped them rank 4th in the league in goals scored — and they rise to 3rd in the Bundesliga in expected goals (xG) scored. Their match with Eintracht Frankfurt was a wild one as they attempted 17 shots while allowing their opponents to launch 14 shots. Their ability to suppress scoring opportunities is hampered right now with their start holding midfielder in Denis Zakaria out for at least another month after he had knee surgery during the recent stoppage of play. Borussia Monchengladbach is just 7th in the league in goals allowed when playing at home — but they fall to 9th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed when playing on their home pitch. But on the other hand, this team has scored in a dozen straight league matches at home (after blanking in their opening home match this season) — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals scored at home.

FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen is looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at home o Borussia Monchengladbach back on November 2nd. Both teams should get on the board in this match with a high likelihood that at least four combined goals will be scored in this contest. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). THE SITUATION: Union Berlin (W9-D3-L14) returned to action in the German top flight with a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday. Hertha Berlin (W8-D7-L11) defeated Hoffenheim on the road last Saturday by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Union Berlin did a good job of keeping mighty Bayern Munich in check as the first-place team in Bundesliga had a goal expectation of just 1.35 (xG) from their tactics on the pitch — and one of their goals was scored from a penalty kick. But Union Berlin embraced defensive tactics for most of this match with their top scorer unavailable for that match. Forward Sebastian Andersson had been injured before the stoppage in play for COVID-19 — and while he was available on the bench for this match, manager Urs Fischer decided he was not yet fit for action. Andersson has scored 11 times this season which accounts for 43% of the scoring for Die Eisernen this season — but he should be back on the pitch for this local Berlin derby. This is the maiden season in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin — and Fischer’s team has generated fourteen goals via set pieces this year. This team overachieved on defense last week as they have allowed the sixth-most goals on the road in the league this season — and they also rank 6th for the highest xGA when playing away from home. Union Berlin has conceded at least one goal in five straight matches — and they have allowed ten combined goals in their last four contests. To compound matters, Die Eisernen will be undermanned on their backline with defenseman Kevin Schlotterbeck suspended for this match after picking up his fifth yellow card this season on Sunday. Hertha Berlin has seen an uptick in their offensive attack in the second half of the season after making two important moves in the winter transfer window. Die Alt Dame signed Krzysztof Piatek from AC Milan and Matheus Cunha from RB Leipzig to completely transform their forward line. Hertha Berlin has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches while finding the back of the bet at least twice in those three contests. Cunha has scored three goals while adding an assist in his five matches with his new club. And while Piatek did not play on Saturday, he was replaced by team captain Vedad Ibisevic with the 35-year old veteran scoring one of the team’s two goals Cunha. Die Alte Dame plays an entertaining open style of play which has seen plenty of goals from both sides as of late. Over their last six matches, 25 combined goals have been scored. Hertha Berlin has allowed the fourth-most goals when playing at home at the Olympiastadion — and the expected goals they have allowed at home (xGA) is also the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga. They do come off a clean sheet win on the road last week — but the xGA for that match was over 3.0 so they were very fortunate to see that result. Expect an appearance from the Regression Gods on Friday when it comes to the defensive results for this team.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have scored in four of their last five meetings in this rivalry. Hertha Berlin’s 31 points put them one point ahead of Union Berlin for 11th place in the German top-flight table. With both teams probably safe from relegation but too far removed from the sixth place necessary to qualify for the next Europa League, the only thing at stake in this match is bragging rights. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (202405). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D8-L3) returns to the pitch after a two-month absence from action given the stoppage of play in the Bundesliga from the Coronavirus. They last played on March 10th when they dominated Tottenham by a 3-0 score in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the European Championship by an aggregate 4-0 score. Freiburg (W10-D6-L9) last played on Match 7th when they defeated Union Berlin by a 3-1 score.

REASONS TO LAY THE GOAL-LINE WITH RB LEIPZIG: Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team should be very motivated to play out the string of their Bundesliga matches. They currently sit in 3rd place in Germany’s top-flight league five points behind Bayern Munich in 1st place and just one point behind 2nd place Borussia Dortmund. This team also features several players who are in line for big paydays on the summer transfer market — so taking advantage of these matches which will have the attention of the world with the Bundesliga being the first major European soccer league returning to action could be very lucrative. Forward Timo Werner is being rumored to have the interest of Liverpool while midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has been possibly linked to both Liverpool and Arsenal. Werner has 21 goals this season with another 8 assists. RB Leipzig also has a dynamic attacking midfielder Christopher Nkunku leads the Bundesliga with 65 scoring chances — and his 4.05 scoring chances per 90 minutes average this season is the second-best of all players in the top-five European professional leagues. But the strength of manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is on defense. RB Leipzig is tied for tops in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed. This team has allowed only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have registered six clean sheets in their last seven matches overall. Consistent play on the defensive side of the pitch is the characteristic that I suspect will carry over after the long layoff. Freiburg has just three victories in 2020 despite defeating Union Berlin in their last match. They are led by Nils Petersen — but their top-scorer has not found the back of the net in his last eight league matches. Freiburg can struggle to create scoring chances so I expect them to struggle against this RB Leipzig side that is so good at shot suppression. They had scored only three goals in their previous five matches before their three-goal effort against Union Berlin. Freiburg has scored only 18 goals in their thirteen league matches on the road. And while they have conceded 21 goals in their thirteen matches away from home in Bundesliga, the deeper metrics indicate that they expected goals they should have allowed jumps to 28.32. RB Leipzig is in 8th place in the league with 36 points — but the analytics projects regression with their net xG of only 28.79 points entering this match.

FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig hosts this match at their Red Bull Arena where they are W7-D4-L1 in league play this season. While there will not be fans for this contest given social distancing guidelines, I am still assigning advantages to the home team given the familiarity of their arena along with not having to travel for this match. RB Leipzig will also have revenge on their mind after losing at Freiburg by a 2-1 score back on October 26th. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667) in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (19-12) snapped their three-game losing streak back on March 3rd with their 89-70 win over Arkansas-Little Rock as a 3.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (19-13) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 82-81 win over UL-Lafayette on Monday where they were 8.5-point favorites. Georgia State is the host school for the Sun Belt tournament with the games being played in the GSU Sports Center.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Eagles shot 53.3% from the field on Monday in that win which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. But they also made only 10 of their 20 free throws — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to make more than 53% of their free throws in their last contest. Missing freebies has been an Achilles’ heel for this team as they were last in the Sun Belt by making just 67% of their free throws — and they ranked 277th in the nation overall by hitting just 67.7% of their free throws the season. Georgia Southern may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of the rest 19 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home where they make only 43.0% of their field goal attempts — so missing free throws could hurt this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 6 points or less. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in March. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing their second game in three days. Georgia State should have a big advantage when it comes to energy with their eight days off — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing with at last a week off between games. The Panthers’ style under first-year head coach Rob Lanier emphasizes launching plenty of 3s with their four-out attack while crashing the offensive glass and using pressure to force turnovers. Georgia State is 2nd in the Sun Belt by pulling down 35.8% of their missed shots — and they are also 2nd in the conference by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their conference opponents. The Panthers took 41.2% of their shots from behind the arc in conference play — and they rank 13th in the nation by nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. Georgia State is 12-2 at home with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG — and they were led by a stingy defense that limited their guests to just 38.8% shooting which resulted in only 68.4 PPG. The Panthers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Georgia State should build off the momentum of their victory over the Trojans as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set in the 150s.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will be looking to avenge a 79-70 upset loss at home to Georgia Southern back on February 28th where they were 5-point favorites. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year with the Georgia State Panthers (668) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (667). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). THE SITUATION: FAU (16-15) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 94-82 loss at Marshall as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Old Dominion (13-18) has lost three of their last five games with their 72-63 loss at UAB as a 2-point favorite on last Saturday. The Conference USA tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls allowed the Thundering Herd to nail 53.4% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of their season (and worst over their last fourteen games). FAU has then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Owls have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss against a conference rival. Now FAU stays on the road where they are making just 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Owls have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3 point range, FAU has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Old Dominion allowed the Blazers to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Monarchs did hold UAB to just four offensive rebounds in that contest — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. Old Dominion is 7th in the nation by limiting its opponents to rebounding just 21.7% of their missed shots. The Monarchs stay on the road where they are making only 39.6% of their shots which results in just 60.2 PPG. Old Dominion is 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.1% when playing away from home. The Monarchs have played 39 of their last 51 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 21 of their last 26 games when playing on a neutral court as the favorite. Old Dominion has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total in tournament action.

FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs are a strong defensive team that ranked 3rd in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 57th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. FAU has an effective field goal percentage of 46% when playing away from home which is just 279th in the country. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615) in the Finals of the Horizon League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Northern Kentucky (22-9) has won three of their last four games after their 80-69 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Illinois-Chicago (18-16) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 73-56 upset win over Wright State yesterday as a 6-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral court at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NORSE MINUS THE POINTS: Northern Kentucky should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning a least two of their last three games. The Norse have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing their second game in three days. Northern Kentucky won the Horizon League tournament last season under head coach John Brannen who then took the vacated job at Cincinnati in the offseason. The Norse also lost their best player in Drew McDonald. But the program landed a veteran head coach in Darrin Horn who has a decade of head coaching experience at Western Kentucky and South Carolina along with long tenures as an assistant at Marquette and Texas. Horn could have waited for a more high profile job in his return to head coaching but he liked the opportunity at Northern Kentucky. The cupboard was not empty when it comes to talent with guards Jalen Tate and Tyler Sharpe along with forward Dantez Walton back from last season. Injuries have kept this big three from playing together often this season with Tate and Walton missing ten games and eleven games respectively this season. When Tate went down early this season, Walton raised his level of play to lead this team with talk of him perhaps being the Horizon League’s best player before he went down with an injury. But this core is healthy again and have played together for the last seven games. Northern Kentucky has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite. Illinois-Chicago held the Raiders to just 28.3% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Flames have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33% from the field. Illinois-Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. The Flames are one of the hottest teams in basketball — and they have covered the point spread in four of their last five games (and five of their last seven). But Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Flames’ biggest weakness is being too loose with the basketball as they turn the ball over in 21.2% of their possessions when playing away from home which ranks 287th in the nation. The Norse have forced turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions in their last ten games which is 81st best in the country over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Kentucky will have the additional motivation tonight to avenge a 73-43 loss at home to Illinois-Chicago back on February 16th despite being a 10-point favorite in that game. 25* CBB Horizon League Conference Game of the Year with the Northern Kentucky Norse (616) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (615). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893) in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: BYU (24-7) takes the court again tonight having won nine straight games after their 81-64 victory at Pepperdine back on February 29th as a 6.5-point favorite. Saint Mary’s (24-7) advanced to the semifinals of this tournament with their 89-82 victory over Pepperdine in double-overtime on Saturday as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory over a conference rival where they scored at least 80 points. The Cougars are an outstanding shooting basketball team — they are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while leading the nation by making 42.0% of their shots from behind the arc. BYU made 53.1% of their shots in their victory over the Waves. That was the third straight game where the Cougars shot at least 48.4% of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. BYU has also scored at least 81 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 80 points in three straight games. The Cougars make 49.2% of their shots away from home which results in them scoring 77.1 PPG — and they lead the nation with a 42.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land when playing on the road. BYU also leads the West Coast Conference by forcing turnovers in 19.0% of their opponent’s possessions. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while the Gaels have played four straight games Over the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Overs. BYU has a field goal percentage of 50.4% — and Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games against teams who make at least 48% of their shots. The Gaels also allow their opponents to make 35.4% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing away from home. Saint Mary’s has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Gaels have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games played on a neutral court as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Saint Mary’s will be looking to avenge an 81-79 loss at BYU back on February 1st — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB West Coast Conference Game of the Year with BYU Cougars (894) minus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (893). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864) in the Quarterfinals of the Summit League conference tournament. THE SITUATION: North Dakota (12-17) has lost their last two games after losing at South Dakota last Saturday by a 77-67 score as a 7.5-point favorite. South Dakota (20-11) snapped a three-game losing streak with that victory. This game is being played on a neutral court in Sioux Falls.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: North Dakota made only 5 of their 10 free throw attempts in that game which is uncharacteristic for this team that ranks 22nd in the nation by making 76.6% of their free throws this season. The Fighting Hawks have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to shoot better than 53% of their free throws in their last game. This is a good shooting basketball team that ranks 25th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.4% when playing away from home on neutral courts or hostile environments. North Dakota is led by an All-League performer in guard Marlon Stewart. This team usually plays its best basketball in tournament situations. The Fighting Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 tournament contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games in the Summit League conference tournament. Furthermore, North Dakota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in March. Additionally, the Fighting Hawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games on a neutral court as an underdog. South Dakota does nail 39.0% of their 3-pointers — but North Dakota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who shoot at least 37% from 3-point land. The Coyotes shot 54.2% from the field in their victory last Saturday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But this South Dakota team shoots only 45.1% when playing any from home. While the Coyotes rank 9th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.8%, that number drops to a 51.6% clip when they are playing away from home arena. South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court. The Coyotes win over the Fighting Hawks finished below the 155 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played with at least seven days of rest, South Dakota has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Coyotes swept the two regular-season games with North Dakota this season as they also defeated them on the road by an 82-68 score on February 8th. This is considered a semi-home game for South Dakota with it being played in Sioux Falls — but it is still 116 miles away from their home campus in Vermillion. Look for the Fighting Hawks give the Coyotes their biggest fight in this single-elimination contest. 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (863) plus the points versus the South Dakota Coyotes (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). THE SITUATION: Murray State (23-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 73-61 win over Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Belmont (25-7) joined them yesterday as they won their eleventh straight game with their 60-50 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court in Evansville, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Murray State is playing excellent defense right now after holding the Governors to just 39.3% shooting. The Racers have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 61.0 PPG. Moving forward, Murray State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Racers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Belmont has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference opponent. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bruins made only 33.8% of their shots in that game — but they held Eastern Kentucky to just 29.9% shooting to win the game handily. Belmont has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 60 points. The Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a defensive struggle between the top two defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Belmont has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 89-82 win over Wyoming as a 15-point favorite yesterday. San Diego State (30-1) has won their last four games after suffering their first loss of the season with their 81-68 win over Boise State yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies outlasted the Cowboys by shooting 56.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Utah State has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread win. The Aggies have also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while yesterday’s game flew Over the 136 point Total, Utah State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. San Diego State has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 80 points. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. In their fifteen games away from home this year, San Diego State has held these opponents to just 39.9% shooting and only 60.9 PPG. The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total that were played on a neutral court. San Diego State has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in tournament action. And while Utah State makes 46.1% of their shots this season, the Aztecs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 455 from the field. The Aggies are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but San Diego State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Utah State hopes to avenge an 80-68 loss to San Diego State back on February 1st — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Aggies have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. Expect a lower scoring game between the top two defensive teams (in terms of Adjusted Efficiency) in the conference). 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-6) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 81-73 upset loss at home to Tennessee despite being an 8.5-point favorite. Florida (19-11) has won two of their last three games after their 68-54 win at Georgia as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kentucky allowed the Volunteers to make 52.8% of their shots which was not only the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage for them all season but also the worst defensive performance in their last twenty games. The Wildcats should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. Now Kentucky goes back on the road where they are 8-4 this season. The deeper analytics rank the Wildcats as the 6th best road team in the nation when looking at Adjusted Net Efficiency. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win on the road against an SEC rival. The Gators have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after allowing no more than 60 points in their last contest. And while Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Gators return home where they are 11-3 this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games on their home court. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 home games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Gators are looking to avenge a 65-59 loss at Kentucky back on February 22nd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Kentucky Wildcats (615) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (616). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (861) and the Davidson Wildcats (862). THE SITUATION: VCU (18-12) has lost six of their last seven games with their 80-77 loss at home to Duquesne on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Davidson (15-14) has lost their last two contests after their 80-63 loss at Richmond on Wednesday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: VCU has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-14) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-58 loss at Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Georgia Tech (16-14) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 73-57 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson looks to bounce-back from one of their worst games of the season against the Hokies. They made only 35.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They also allowed Virginia Tech to make 54.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed all season. The Tigers allowed Florida State to make 50% of their shots in their previous game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games after allowing two straight opponents to shoot at least 50% of their shots. Head coach Brad Brownell’s team has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one or no days of rest. They return home where they are 11-5 this season with an average winning margin of +8.3 PPG. The Tigers play the 32nd stingiest defense in the nation when playing at home according to their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — they limit their guests to just 40.4% shooting which translates into only 62.6 PPG. Clemson should shoot better tonight — they have still made 47.9% of their shots over their last five games even after the difficult shooting effort against the Hokies. Clemson takes tons of 3s — but they do lead the ACC by making 53.2% of their shots inside the arc. Their efficiency inside the arc improves at home as they are making 56.5% of their 2-point shots which is the 26th best mark in the nation. Georgia Tech does hold their opponents to just 40.2% shooting — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after fifteen games into the season when facing a team that does not allow their opponents to shoot better from 42% from the field. And while the Yellow Jackets shoot 45.3% from the field, Clemson has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 45% of their shots. Georgia Tech may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least 15 points. They made 49.1% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They also held the Panthers to 30.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last fourteen games. But this will be the Yellow Jackets third game since Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in seven days. Additionally, Georgia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two straight games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least three in a row against ACC foes. The Yellow Jackets go back on the road where they are 6-8 this season. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Jackets have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 130 to 134.5 point range. Georgia Tech has two weaknesses that undermine the tough defense they play for head coach Josh Pastner. The Yellow Jackets foul too much to give their opponents freebies at the charity stripe — especially on the road. Georgia Tech ranks 315th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 44.4% when playing away from home. The Yellow Jackets also turn the ball over in 22.8% of their possessions which is 342nd in the nation — and Clemson forces turnovers in 19.9% of their opponent’s possessions which is a solid 105th best in the nation.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson will have revenge on their minds as well for this game after losing to Georgia Tech in Atlanta by a 68-59 score back on February 25th. Not only have the Tigers covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to play with revenge but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. 25* CBB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (854) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (853). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). THE SITUATION: UMKC (15-14) has won three games in a row with their 80-58 win over Chicago State last Saturday as a 20-point favorite. Utah Valley State (11-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in a 73-66 loss at Cal-Baptist where they were 6-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Kangaroos have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. UMKC is hot with its shooting right now as they are making 48.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. The Kangaroos have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. Utah Valley State made only 43.9% of their shots last week in their loss to Cal-Baptist — that was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Wolverines have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And while Utah Valley State has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Over their last five games, they are still making 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 76.8 PPG. They have also allowed 75.0 PPG over those last five games. They return home where they are scoring 74.9 PPG while allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG. Hosting this Kangaroos team will help their shooting as UMKC is 285th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% when they are playing on the road. Utah Valley State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolverines have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley State makes only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Kangaroos have played 14 of their last 17 games Ove the Total against opponents who do not shoot better than 31% from behind the 3-point line. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711) in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Drake (18-13) has lost three straight games after their 70-43 loss at home to Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois State (10-20) has won two of their last three games with their 71-60 upset win at Evansville as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Missouri Valley Conference tournament is played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Drake made only 30.2% of their shots which was the lowest shooting mark in their last twenty games. The Bulldogs made only 3 of their 21 shots from behind the arc (14.3%) in their loss to the Panthers — but the have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after a game where they did not make at least 20% of their 3-point attempts. Drake should shoot better tonight as they have made 36.3% of their shots from downtown in their last ten games away from home in games played on neutral courts and true road games. The Bulldogs should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a double-digit loss which includes them covering the point spread in those last four opportunities. Drake has been a reliable team when playing on neutral courts as well as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on a neutral court — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on a neutral court when favored. Illinois State played their best defensive game of the season against the Purple Aces by holding them to just 32.8% shooting. But the Redbirds are only 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they are just 1-14 this season with an average losing margin of -10.4 PPG. Illinois State allows their opponents to make 47.2% of their shots when playing away from home which results in them scoring 75.5 PPG. They also make just 42.2% of their shots in those fifteen games away from Normal. The Redbirds have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Illinois State is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Drake will be looking to avenge a 57-53 upset loss at Illinois State where they were 1.5-point underdogs back on February 22nd. The Bulldogs play sound fundamental basketball as they made 52.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 2nd best in the MVC. They also hold their opponents to just 46.0% shooting inside the arc which is 2nd best in the Missouri Valley Conference. Illinois State may struggle to score as they make only 45.9% of their shots inside the arc which is 10th in the conference. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year with the Drake Bulldogs (712) minus the points versus the Illinois State Redbirds (711). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). THE SITUATION: Creighton (22-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 91-71 upset loss at St. John’s as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgetown (15-14) has lost four games in a row after their 66-63 loss at home against Xavier as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUEJAYS MINUS THE POINTS: Creighton played one of their worst games of the season after perhaps enjoying their most positive stint of the year during their previous five-game run. The Bluejays allowed the Red Storm to make 55% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last twenty-three games. They also made only 37.3% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But Creighton has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 15 points. The Bluejays have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Creighton has still won nine of their last eleven games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. The Bluejays return home where they are 16-1 this season with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Creighton holds their opponents to just 39.7% shooting from the field — and they also make 49.5% of their shots at home which translates into 83.1 PPG. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court with four victories all by at least 11 points. Creighton has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 home games against teams who do not have a winning percentage better than 40% on the road. Additionally, the Bluejays have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 150 to 154.5 point range. This team ranks 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom — and the analytics also say they have the best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home. Creighton has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games as a favorite in the 6.5 to 12 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown has been reduced to an eight-man rotation after four programs left the program in December. Head coach Patrick Ewing’s team will be furthered shorthanded tonight with Omer Yertseven and Mac McClung both doubtful with ankle and foot injuries. Those two players are the Hoyas’ top two possession and shot takers on the team — so their potential loss is devastating. As it is, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They are making only 41% of their shots over their last five games which have resulted in them scoring only 67.8 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they are just 4-6 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. This team struggles in defending the perimeter as they rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they allow their home hosts to nail 37.5% of their shots from 3-point land which is 298th in the nation. Creighton is 5th in the nation by making 42.1% of their 3-pointers when playing at home. The Hoyas have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Furthermore, Georgetown has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Creighton will be motivated to avenge an 83-80 loss at Georgetown back on January 15th. The Bluejays have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games when avenging a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* CBB Big East Game of the Year with the Creighton Bluejays (778) minus the points versus the Georgetown Hoyas (777). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). THE SITUATION: UTSA (13-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 66-59 victory over UAB as a 3-point favorite. Old Dominion (12-17) also ended their two-game losing streak when they defeated Florida Atlantic on Sunday by an 85-80 score as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home against a conference rival. The Roadrunners have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, UTSA has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Toal after holding their last opponent to no more than 60 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Roadrunners held the Blazers to just 36.1% shooting — but now they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in them scoring 82.9 PPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they rank 290th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with just 11th in conference play. UTSA has played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UTSA is a solid offensive team that scores 77.8 PPG while averaging 65 shots per game along with 10 made 3-pointers per contest. Old Dominion has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Monarchs have all played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game. Old Dominion committed only eight personal fouls in their win over the Owls on Sunday with FAU getting whistled for 19 personal fouls — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after being called for at least 10 personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Monarchs have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against Conference USA foes. Now this team stays at home where they are 9-4 this season. Old Dominion has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. The Monarchs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games this season.

FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion will be looking to avenge an 85-81 loss at home to UTSA back on February 6th — and the Monarchs have played 18 of their last 21 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). THE SITUATION: Iowa (20-9) has won three of their last four games with their 77-68 victory at home against Penn State as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (15-14) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 57-49 win at against Indiana where they were 6.5-point favorites on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off their momentum as they are 7-3-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Hawkeyes stay at home where they are 14-1 this season with an average winning margin of +14.2 PPG. Iowa makes 47% of their shots on their home court which has resulted in them scoring 81.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, Iowa is 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games when favored — and they are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Hawkeyes rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Boilermakers launch 21 shots from behind the arc this season, Iowa has covered the point spread in 8 straight home games who take at least 21 shots from 3-point land per game. Purdue played their best defensive game of the season last week by limiting the Hoosiers to just 25.4% shooting from the field. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after a victory at home against a Big Ten rival. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Boilermakers are 14-4 at home this season, they are just 4-10 when playing on the road. They are making just 37.4% of their shots on the road which has resulted in only 60.0 PPG. Purdue makes only 28.1% of their 3-pointers and just 43.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road which ranks 318th and 335th in the nation. Their 42.8% effective field goal percentage on the road is just 338th in the country. These struggles with shooting the basketball have contributed to the Boilermakers going just 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 road games — and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better on their home court. Purdue has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored. The Boilermakers defeated Indiana despite them making only 37.5% of their shots. Purdue has a low 39.7% field goal percentage over their last five games — it will be difficult to keep up with this Iowa team that is highly efficient on offense.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa will be looking to avenge a brutal 104-68 loss at Purdue back on February 5th. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (648) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (647). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). THE SITUATION: Boston (41-18) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 111-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (26-33) has lost their last four games after their 116-113 loss at Miami on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston made only 39% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-five games. The Celtics should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. They stay at home where they are 23-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.6 PPG. The Celtics should shoot better tonight as they are making 47.3% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 116.6 PPG. Boston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Celtics may be undermined tonight with a flu bug hitting the locker room — Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are listed as questionable after missing practice yesterday. But Boston will get Kemba Walker back after he missed the last five games with a knee injury. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Boston has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. Brooklyn may be without Garrett Temple who is questionable with a shoulder injury — and they will be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season with his shoulder injury. The Nets stay on the road where they are 10-20 with an average losing margin of -3.6 PPG. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when facing an opponent that is winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 13 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Boston will also be motivated to avenge a 112-107 upset loss at Brooklyn back on November 29th. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge against their opponents. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (6-20) has lost twelve straight games after their 89-76 loss at home to Portland State as a 4-point underdog last Thursday. Weber State (11-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-83 upset loss to Portland State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits. Idaho State has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.7% of their shots which has produced 74.5 PPG. Idaho State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. Weber State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing four straight Overs after a victory. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Weber State stays at home where they are scoring 80.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. The Wildcats have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 10-4-1 in Weber State’s last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% overall.

FINAL TAKE: Idaho State is just 318th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 347th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 56.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bengals have a defensive field goal percentage of 48.3% — and the Wildcats have played 15 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Weber State is 3rd in the Big Sky Conference with a 53.3% of their shots inside the arc — they should score plenty of 2-pointers against this Idaho State team. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:38 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (11) and the Vegas Golden Knights (12). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (24-35-6) has won two straight games with their 2-1 win at home over New Jersey yesterday. Vegas (36-22-8) has won eight straight games with their 4-2 victory over Buffalo on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on their home ice. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 5 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Kings’ last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. This is a solid defensive team that has held their last five opponents to just 2.4 Goals-Per-Game. Goalie Jonathan Quick had a 2.50 Goals-Against-Average with a .920 save percentage in his eight starts in February. And while the Golden Knights average 3.3 Goals-Per-Game, the Kings have played 18 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 3.0 Goals-Per-Game. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Under is also 10-3-1 in the Kings’ last 14 games against fellow Western Conference opponents. Vegas’ hot streak can be traced back to their improved play under new head coach Pete DeBoer who emphasizes defensive tactics. The Golden Knights have held their last five opponents to 2.6 Goals-Per-Game which is almost a half-goal lower than their 3.0 Goals-Per-Game opponent’s scoring average for the season. Vegas has been even stingier at home where they have allowed only ten combined goals in their last six games for a 1.66 Goals-Per-Game average by these last six guests. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Golden Knights’ last 5 home games as a favorite. Marc-Andre Fleury is playing his best goaltending of the season right now after posting a 2.27 GAA along with a .913 save percentage in his ten starts in February. Vegas has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. And while the Kings allow only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game, the Golden Knights have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who do not allow more than 2.5 Goals-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Vegas will be looking to avenge a 5-2 loss to Los Angeles back on January 9th — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least two goals. 25* NHL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Kings (11) and the Vegas Golden Knights (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Orlando (23-32) has won three straight games with their 136-125 win over Minnesota last night as an 8-point favorite. San Antonio (24-33) has lost their last two games with their 109-103 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-0-1 in the Magic’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Orlando has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last five games. Head coach Steve Clifford has found a five-man combination that is finally jumpstarting what had been a stagnant offense. Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic entered the week averaging 110.1 points per 100 possessions in the 177 minutes they have played together. In the three games the Magic have played since, Orlando has averaged 127 PPG while making 49.4%, 49.0% and then 54.1% of their shots. But the problem for that grouping is their defense as they had allowed their opponents to score at an 111.8 points per 100 possession clip in those 177 minutes entering last Monday’s game. The Magic have allowed their last three opponents to average 119.3 PPG with a field goal percentage of 47.0%. All three games this week finished Over the Total — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. In their last five games, the Magic are scoring 120.6 PPG on 47.4% shooting — and they are surrendering 118.1 PPG on 47.1% shooting. Now they go back on the road where the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, while this is Orlando’s sixth game in the last two weeks, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in fourteen days. San Antonio held the Mavericks to just a 41.9% shooting percentage on Wednesday in that loss which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Over is 6-1-1 in the Spurs’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. And while San Antonio has lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two contests, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after suffering two straight losses — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Spurs defensive effort on Wednesday was a surprise because they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 115.4 PPG. They stay at home for this game where they are scoring 113.3 PPG on 46.6% shooting while allowing their guests to score 112.4 PPG. San Antonio has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while San Antonio has launched at least 91 shots in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Orlando averages 89 shots per game this season (while taking at least 89 shots in seven straight contests) — and the Spurs have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 88 shots per game. The Spurs allow 114.5 PPG this season — and the Magic have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.