All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
05-28-17 | Mets v. Pirates -117 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (914) versus the New York Mets (913) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Glasgow and Matt Harvey. Pittsburgh (23-27) has won three of their last four games with their 5-4 win over the Mets last night which included a 9th inning comeback to force extra innings in which they then won with a run in the 10th inning. The Pirates have now played five straight Overs — and they have then won 30 of their last 43 home games after playing at least five straight Overs. They send out Glasnow who is 2-3 with a rough 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP. The right-hander still appears to have great upside after being a top-ten pitching prospect over the last four seasons. His 31% strikeout rate in Triple-A last season was very promising. The deeper sabermeterics suggest that Glasnow should be seeing better results as both his SIERA and xFIP suggest he should be seeing an ERA of 4.91 and 5.01. He has a good opportunity to get a win tonight against this Mets team that has lost 10 of their last 14 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Glasnow’s last two starts provide evidence for this uptick in performance as he struck out 10 innings in those 11 innings of work while allowing only two earned runs in each start for a nice 3.27 ERA. |
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05-28-17 | Tigers v. White Sox +106 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 106 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
At 2:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (924) versus the Detroit Tigers (923) listing both starting pitchers Miguel Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann. Chicago (22-26) saw their two-game winning streak snapped their two-game winning streak yesterday in their 4-3 loss to the Tigers. The White Sox have still won 4 of their last 5 games at home. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Gonzalez who is 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .227 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and .308 opponent’s batting average. The White Sox have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Gonzalez on the hill. He should fare well against this Detroit team that has lost 6 of their last 7 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Furthermore, in their last 9 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Tigers have lost 8 of those games. |
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05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:15 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (960) versus the New York Mets (959) while listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler. Pittsburgh (22-27) looks to bounce-back from their 8-1 loss last night in the opening game of this series. The Pirates have then won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. Pittsburgh has also won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They send out their ace in Cole who is 2-5 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in ten starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.67 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .161 opponent’s batting average in four starts as compared to his 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .295 opponent’s batting average when pitching on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Cole had a 3.53 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .277 opponent’s batting average at home as opposed to his 4.30 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .301 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Additionally, the Pirates have won 13 of their last 19 games with Cole facing a team from the NL East. He should fare well against this New York team that has lost 9 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Additionally, the Mets have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. |
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05-26-17 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (903) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Chad Kuhl. Pittsburgh (22-26) has seen their bats awaken over the last two games as they have scored 21 runs over that span while belting six home runs in their four-game series against the Braves. The Pirates have won two straight games with their 9-4 win in Atlanta last night. Pittsburgh has then seen the Over go 9-4-2 in their last 15 games after a victory. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, the Over is 6-2-1. They send out Kuhl who is 1-4 with a 5.85 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in nine starts this season. The right-hander has been hit hard in his five starts home this year where he has been saddled with an 8.20 ERA, 2.09 WHIP and .329 opponent’s batting average as compared to his solid 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .259 opponent’s batting average when on the road. These disparate home/road splits are entirely consistent with last season where Kuhl had a 7.03 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average at home but a strong 2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .231 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Pirates have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Kuhl on the mound. |
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05-24-17 | Marlins v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (923) and the Oakland A’s (924) listing both starting pitchers Edison Volquez and Sonny Gray. Miami (16-28) opened this series with a 10-8 victory over the A’s last night. The Marlins have then seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 18-7-2 in Miami’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 15 road games against American League opponents, the Marlins have played 12 of these games Over the Total. They send out Volquez who is 0–6 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been less effective on the road in five starts where he has a 5.26 ERA and a rough opponent’s batting average of .303 as compared to his 4.20 ERA and .222 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home this season. These disparate home/road split stats are consistent with last year where Volquez had an uninspiring 5.11 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .285 opponent’s batting average at home with all those numbers even worse on the road to a 5.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and .287 opponent’s batting average. That does not bode well when facing this Oakland team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Furthermore, the A’s have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 217.5 | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (725) and the San Antonio Spurs (726). San Antonio (69-28) decided to play small-ball on Saturday in Game Three of this series which resulted in them being at their most competitive against the Warriors since losing Kawhi Leonard to his left ankle injury. However, the Spurs still lost that game by a 120-108 score as a 9-point underdog. Kyle Anderson was inserted into the starting lineup — and while he is not a prolific scorer per se, he did help San Antonio score points through his athleticism. San Antonio forced 21 turnovers which instigated 25 points — and they also scored 23 points on the fast break. With LaMarcus Aldridge still struggling on offense being very uncomfortable in the role of the team’s primary scorer, look for head coach Gregg Popovich to continue to play small ball with perhaps Aldridge seeing more time on the bench. Small-ball means faster play and more offense for the Spurs (and the Warriors) — and that helps our Over even if Aldridge and his disastrous play on defense is on the bench. As it is, San Antonio has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Spurs have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. San Antonio has also played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Spurs have played 5 straight games on their home court Over the Total. And while San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +17 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (503) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Boston (61-36) was absolutely humiliated on Friday in their 130-86 loss to the Cavaliers. They shot 37.2% from the field which was their worst offensive effort in their last six games. And the 56.5% shooting mark they saw Cleveland enjoy was their second worst defensive effort of the season. To compound matters, Isaiah Thomas suffered a season-ending right hip injury. This is an ugly situation — and hold your nose if you must with the Celtics. There are +17s out there now … and it might be +18 by tipoff. That’s just crazy. Its one thing to expect Golden State to pull away as a 8 to 9 point favorite as they did last night to our great satisfaction … but getting 18 points against a humiliated team that will come out and play very hard is too good to pass up. Expect Boston to come out and play with maximum effort as they look to redeem themselves from suffering the worst home playoff loss for the Celtics franchise in the club’s history. Being without Thomas does not help — but there remains plenty of solid players on this team led by Al Horford. Depth and 3-point shooting are both strengths of this team — and don’t be surprised if the long range shooting of this team dramatically improves with all the pressure gone now in this series. As it is, Boston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Boston has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with double revenge. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 5 trips to Cleveland, Boston is 3-1-1 ATS. |
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05-21-17 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 109 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (965) and the Detroit Tigers (966) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Matthew Boyd. Detroit (21-20) closes out this series tonight after their 9-3 win over the Rangers in the second game of this series. The Tigers have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory. Detroit has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road, the Under is 18-5-3. They send out Boyd who is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP this season. The left-hander is looking to redeem himself from a bad outing where he allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of work against the Orioles on Tuesday. Boyd has been respectable at home where he has a 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .241 — it is on the road where he has really struggled with a 1.98 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .329. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Boyd pitching with four days of rest. He should pitch better tonight against this Rangers team that has played 4 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. |
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05-20-17 | Warriors -8 v. Spurs | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (723) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (724). San Antonio (69-27) will be without Kawhi Leonard tonight as Gregg Popovich has ruled him out for tonight’s game. The Warriors opened as a 6-point favorite in this game — and the news of Leonard’s absence tonight has pushed the line to the -8 to -9 point range (as of this writing). The oddsmakers are begging bettors to take the Spurs on their home court — and the “sharp” play is probably San Antonio. The “sharp” play was with the Celtics last night too. Sometimes, there are just mismatches — and this Spurs team is now without two of their key players in both Leonard and Tony Parker. Since Leonard left in Game One of this series, the Warriors have then outscored them by a 130-77 margin. The onus falls on LaMarcus Aldridge to carry this team on offense — but he has not shown any inclination that he is up to the task. His 17.8 PPG scoring average along with a 15.8 Player Rating and his 1.0 Blocks Per Game are all career lows in these playoffs — and those numbers include the 12 games he played with Leonard in the first two series. In the 43 minutes he has played since Leonard’s injury, Aldridge is 7 of 22 from the floor for just 16 points while committing 8 turnovers. Granted, the Spurs will play much better than they did on Tuesday in their 136-100 loss to the Warriors. But San Antonio has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. This team emotionally unprepared to compete without Leonard in that game which begs the question regarding how confident they will be tonight when all is said and done. Furthermore, this has always been a team that collectively was better than the sum of its individual parts under the leadership of Popovich. It is telling that they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +9.0 PPG. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 218 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (501) and the Boston Celtics (502). Boston (61-35) was emotionally flat in the first half of the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics missed all eight of their open 3-point shots in the first-half en route to making only 12 of 38 shots from behind the arc (31.8%) in a 117-104 loss to the Cavaliers on Wednesday as a 3.5-point underdog. Isaiah Thomas scored only 17 points in that game. Expect this Boston team that makes 36.1% from the 3-point line on their home court to shoot better from behind the arc. The Celtics should also come out with much more energy tonight considering the urgency they will face in needing to win this game before traveling to Cleveland to play Games Three and Four. Boston can exploit the Cavaliers who were last in the regular season in transition defense. The Celtics have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And in their last 16 home games, the Over is 12-3-1 — and that includes being a perfect 7-0 in these playoffs. |
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05-18-17 | Ducks v. Predators UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (9) and the Nashville Predators (10). Nashville (51-32-12) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Tuesday with their 2-1 victory. The Predators thrive off the energy of the home crowd in Bridgestone Arena which helps ensure they provide maximum effort for all sixty minutes of the game. That helps explain why they have allowed only one goal in each of their last five playoff games on their home ice. The Under is now 9-1-2 in their last 12 games at home. Nashville has also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total following a game that finished Under the Total. Much of the reason why the Preds are so tough at home is that head coach Peter LaViolette gets the option of the last line shift which affords him maximum flexibility to deploy his two elite defensive lines of Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis along with P.K. Subban Mattias Ekholm. The club is also getting outstanding goaltending from Pekka Rinne who has a superb .958 save percentage on the 167 shots he has faced at home in these playoffs. Moving forward, the Under is 4-0-1 in Nashville’s last 5 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two goals, the Under is 3-1-1. |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Toronto Blue Jays (919) and the Atlanta Braves (920) listing both starting pitchers Marcus Stroman and Julio Teheran. Atlanta (16-21) has won three straight games — as well as five of their last six — with their 8-4 win versus the Blue Jays in the first game in Atlanta of this two-game home-and-home series with Toronto. The Braves have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 20-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 28 home games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in Interleague play, the Braves have played 4 of these games Over the Total. The team received bad news this afternoon with the announcement that Freddie Freeman would miss 8-12 weeks after being beaned in the wrist last night in this heated series. But this team will need to score runs tonight with Julio Teheran taking the hill after surrendering six home runs, 22 hits and seven bases-on-balls in his last three starts in Atlanta. For the season, the right-hander is 3-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP this year — but he sees those numbers explode at home with an 8.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .310 in four starts. The Braves have played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with Teheran on the hill. That is not a good sign against this Toronto team that has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Blue Jays have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. |
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05-17-17 | Penguins -125 v. Senators | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Penguins (53) versus the Ottawa Senators (54). Pittsburgh (60-25-6) tied this series at 1-1 on Monday with their 1-0 victory over the Senators. But this team did receive bad news with the shoulder injury to defenseman Justin Schultz who is questionable tonight for a depleted blue line already missing Kris Letang and Trevor Daley. Say one thing about the Penguins’ roster: while they lack an elite defenseman after losing Letang, general manager Jimmy Rutherford has done a great job in assembling depth. They will likely turn to the 39-year old Mark Streit to replace Schultz who was acquired prior to the trade deadline. Streit was playing 20 minutes per game with the Flyers this season and the lack of physicality in this series will be help the veteran be successful in this season. The injuries on defense which also includes Bryan Rust and also forward Patric Hornqvist being questionable tonight along with this team playing in a hostile arena should ensure the focus of the defending champions. This team plays at their best when facing adversity. And while much of the attention in Game Two regarding the chirping between teammates Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, that helped Sidney Crosby quietly play a great game where he won 67% of the 21 face-offs he took part in. Crosby remains the best player in the world with Malkin firmly still in the top-ten — so the Pens’ injuries are worthy of note certainly not overwhelming. Furthermore, remember that it was Game Three where the Rangers’ learning curve caught up last round and they figured out the Senators’ tricky 1-3-1 trapping zone. As it is, Pittsburgh has won 19 of their last 26 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. The Penguins have also won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. And in their last 21 playoff games where they were tied in the series, Pittsburgh has won 15 times. |
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05-15-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -141 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (7) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (8). Pittsburgh (59-25-6) was flat on Saturday in their 2-1 loss in overtime to the Senators in the opening game of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Penguins failed to score in any of their five Power Play chances that included 45 seconds where they had a 5-on-3 advantage. I was not surprised as I expected Pittsburgh to struggle to adjust to Ottawa’s 1-3-1 zone trapping system. Look for Sidney Crosby and company to play much better on the offensive end of the ice tonight. The Penguins have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to score more than one goal. And while Pittsburgh has played two straight Unders, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, the Pens have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a loss to their opponent where they scored only one goal. And in their last 27 games on their home ice where the Total was not 5.5 or higher, the game finished Over the Total 21 times. |
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05-14-17 | Predators v. Ducks -117 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Anaheim Ducks (6) versus the Nashville Predators (5). Anaheim (55-26-13) finds themselves in a crucial situation having dropped the opening game of this series on Friday with their 3-2 loss in overtime. The Ducks had to overcome an 0-2 deficit in their previous playoff series with the Oilers — and that took a tense-filled seventh game. Anaheim will also remember losing their first two games at home last season in their opening round series with these Predators — and they ended up losing that series in seven games. These struggles at home in the Honda Center in the playoffs is a bit of a surprise when considering that they were a dominant 29-8-4 at home this season. The Ducks have won 15 of their last 20 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Look for Anaheim to bounce-back with a big win tonight. They have won 27 of their last 39 games after a loss. The Ducks have also won 26 of their last 42 games when playing with revenge. And in their last 20 home gamers when playing their 3rd game in five days as they are here, they have won 16 of these contests. Furthermore, Anaheim has won 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last contest. |
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05-13-17 | Senators v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (1) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (2). Pittsburgh (59-24-6) picked themselves off the mat after losing two straight games to the Capitals by then shuttin out Washington on their home ice to win that climactic Game Seven by a 2-0 score. Marc-Andre Fleury earned the shutout by stopping 29 shots — he has a .927 save percentage in the twelve playoff games he has started this postseason. While the Penguins have significant injuries on their blue-line with Kris Letang out for these playoffs and Trevor Daley still questionable with his lower body injury, head coach Mike Sullivan has had his team adapt by being less aggressive and emphasizing their defensive tactics. Pittsburgh has blocked 250 shots in the first two rounds of the playoffs. But this decision has also impacted the Penguins’ ability to apply pressure on offense. They averaged only 23 shots on net per game in that seven-game series with the Capitals. Moving forward, Pittsburgh has played 21 of their last 31 opening games of a new playoff series Under the Total. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Penguins’ last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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05-13-17 | Braves +117 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 117 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Atlanta Braves (951) versus the Miami Marlins (952) listing both starting pitchers Julio Teheran and Edinson Volquez. Atlanta (12-20) snapped their six-game losing streak last night with their 8-4 victory last night. The Braves have then won 7 of their last 10 games after a win. Atlanta has also won 15 of their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 20 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home, the Braves have won 14 of these games. They send out Teheran who is 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in seven starts this season. The right-hander has been much better on the road where he has a 0.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .212 opponent’s batting average in three starts as compared to his 8.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and .310 opponent’s batting average when at home. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where Teheran had a 2.69 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average on the road as opposed to his 3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .237 opponent’s batting average when at home. Teheran comes off a start on Monday — and the Braves have won 4 straight games with Teheran starting on six days rest. He should fare well against this Marlins team that has lost 15 of their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and that includes six straight home games. |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (520) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (519). Boston (59-33) returns home after dropping the last two games on the road in this series with their 121-102 loss to the Wizards. The Celtics allowed the Washington to shoot 52.4% from the field in their worst defensive effort in their last seventeen games. Look for the Celtics — along with their leader Isaiah Thomas — to rebound with a much better game. As it is, Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss —and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. Thomas complained about the referees after Sunday’s loss after not getting to the free throw line even once in that contest. Expect that to change dramatically in Game Five of this series. Furthermore, while the Celtics have allowed at least 111 points in four straight games, the Celtics have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on their home court after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors -8 v. Jazz | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (701) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (702). Utah (55-37) finds themselves big underdogs despite being on their home court as they face the risk of elimination after falling 0-3 in this series with their 102-91 loss to the Warriors on Saturday. It first glance, it might look like the “sharp” play to take the Jazz getting all these points on their home court, but there are a few reasons to suspect that Utah missed their chance to have a competitive game with the two-time defending Western Conference Champions on Saturday. Gordon Hayward scored 29 points in that game while Rudy Gobert added another 21 points and 15 rebounds. Utah held a 34-23 advantage in free throw attempts as well. Yet, they still lost by double-digits. It was only a second quarter where the Jazz outscored the Warriors by a 33-22 margin that kept this game as close at it was. The Utah bench managed to produce only 10 points in 4 of 22 shooting which exposes a real problem for this team that will not likely be significantly improved tonight. This team needs a healthy and productive George Hill running the offense to make a group that only scored 100.7 PPG in the regular season (27th in the NBA) more potent. Hill missed Game Three and is listed as questionable tonight with his toe injury. And even if he takes the court, he does not appear likely to be close to 100%. Remember, this overachieving team was just 19-25 straight-up against teams with a winning record during the regular season — and even two of those wins were in the last week against these Warriors and the Spurs who were both resting their starters in preparation for the playoffs. Utah is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on their home court. And while the Jazz have covered the point spread in five of rather last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. |
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05-08-17 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Capitals (1) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (2). Pittsburgh (58-23-6) blew both an opportunity to close this series out on Saturday as well as 2-1 lead after two periods in a 4-2 loss to the Capitals. The Penguins allowed three goals in the 3rd period against Washington to lose that game. Expect Pittsburgh to tighten things up on defense tonight. Despite that setback, goalie Marc Andre-Fleury has been strong in net for this team. The former Stanley Cup Champion for this team has a .921 save percentage over his last four games while posting a .929 save percentage in these playoffs after being the surprise starter for Matt Murray who suffered an injury in the pre-game warmups for the opening game in the postseason. The Penguins have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the 3rd period in their last game. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on their home ice. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 6-2-1. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (516) minus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (515). Houston (60-30) played great in the first game of this series but they have played two clunkers in a row after their 103-92 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday in what was truly just a painful game to watch. As good as the Rockets looked in Game One, they were simply a disaster in Game Three. Their 36.4% shooting percentage was their worst offensive effort of the season. Houston should play much better Sunday night. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 42 games after a point spread loss. Houston has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponent as the home favorite. James Harden had a solid statistical game but was nowhere close to the Most Valuable Player candidate that he has pushed for this season. He should play better by pressing less with his teammates stepping up and playing better around him on their home court. |
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05-07-17 | Ducks v. Oilers -125 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Edmonton Oilers (66) versus the Anaheim Ducks (65). Edmonton (53-31-4) suffered a historic collapse on Friday by allowing three goals in the last 3:16 of Game Five of this series to force overtime — and the Ducks scored the winning goal in double overtime to win the game by a 4-3 score and seize a 3-2 lead in this series. The Oilers have now lost three straight games in this series — but there are a few reasons to expect this young Edmonton team show resiliency tonight. Remember, Edmonton bounced-back from a devastating 7-0 blowout loss to San Jose last round before rebounding with a 4-3 victory. And these Oilers showed resolve by withstanding the Anaheim momentum by playing them to a draw in the first extra period of overtime. There is no denying the talent on this team — and they have a veteran head coach in Todd McClellan who can help steer them through this situation. After dealing the pressure of playing in front of their home crowd with huge expectations on their shoulder, the home fans should help pick this team up tonight as they look to force a climactic Game Seven. As it is, Edmonton has won 11 of their last 14 games on their home ice. The Oilers have also won 12 of their last 16 games after losing three of their last four contests. And while Edmonton lost Game Three of this series by a 6-3 score before losing Game Four by a 4-3 result, there are reasons for optimism. The Oilers have then won 20 of their last 31 home games when looking to avenge two straight losses to their opponent where they allowed at least three goals in both games. Edmonton has won 6 of their last 7 home games after allowing at least four goals in two straight games. And in their last 21 games after playing at least two straight Overs, the Oilers have won 16 of these games. |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 208 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:35 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (509) and the Utah Jazz (510). Golden State (73-15) has now won seven straight games with their 115-104 win over the Jazz on Thursday as a 13.5-point favorite. The Warriors have then played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. Golden State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, while the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in the first two games of this series, they have then played a decisive 42 of their last 60 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Golden State has won their last three games by at least 12 points — and they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight gams by double-digits. And while the Warriors have scored at least 106 points in seven straight games, they have then played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. Additionally, Golden State has played 25 of the last 35 road games Under the Total which includes twelve of their last seventeen games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 19-6-1. |
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05-06-17 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:15 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (61) and the Washington Capitals (62). Pittsburgh (58-22-6) scored three goals on just 18 shots on Wednesday in their 3-2 win that gave them a 3-1 lead in this series. With that Total moving to 5.5 by the time the puck dropped in that game, that result was the second straight Under in this series. The Penguins have then played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Pittsburgh has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing their second game in the last five days. Furthermore, the Under is 42-19-7 in the last 68 games against an opponent that did not score more than two goals in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to increase the pressure they are putting on goalie Braden Holtby even with their 3-1 series lead. They may very well get Sidney Crosby back on the ice tonight as the superstar has said he has had a number of positive days after suffering a concussion. Moving forward, the Pens have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice, the Over is 15-5-1. |
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05-06-17 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (907) and the New York Mets (908) listing both starting pitchers Odrisamer Despaigne and Robert Gsellman. New York (13-15) has won five of their last seven games with their 8-7 win last night in the opening game of this series. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games after a win — and the Over is a decisive 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And in their last 32 games after allowing at least five runs, the Over is 21-8-3. Additionally, the Over is 16-5-2 in New York’s last 23 games at home — and they have played thirteen of their last sixteen games Over the Total at home against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over is 19-4-3 in the Mets’ last 27 games against fellow NL East opponents. They send out Gsellman who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not been as effective at home so far as he owns a 1.76 WHIP and .329 opponent’s batting average in three starts at home as compared to his 1.15 WHIP and .263 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Mets have played 5 straight home games Over the Total with Gsellman on the mound. Miami has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Marlins have also seen the Over go 17-5-4 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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05-05-17 | Predators v. Blues -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Blues (4) versus the Nashville Predators (5). St. Louis (50-33-7) outplayed the Predators in most areas in Game Four of this series on Tuesday but still fell short by a 2-1 score to fall behind by a 3-1 margin in this series. The Blues outshot Nashville for the first time in this series by a 33-25 margin while amping up their physical play and winning 53% of the face-offs in a game that remained scoreless entering the 3rd period. Now St. Louis returns home after playing the last two games on the Predators’ home ice — and they have won 20 of their last 26 home games after playing their last two games on the road. The Blues have also won a decisive 69 of their last 99 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Remember, this was a team that was 21-8-2 in the regular season when Mike Yeo was elevated to head coach for Ken Hitchcock — and that was the best record in the entire league during that span. They easily took care of Minnesota in five games in the opening round of this series. This is a good hockey team. Moving forward, St. Louis has won 39 of their last 58 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 25 games after not allowing more than two goals, the Blues have won 17 of these contests. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (736) plus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (735). Toronto (55-35) finds themselves in deep trouble in this series after getting blown out for the second straight time on Wednesday in a 125-103 loss as a 7.5-point underdog. And while the Raptors looked outmatched to fall behind 0-2 in this series, that was the same scenario last season when Toronto lost by 31 and 19 points in the first two games in the Eastern Conference Finals before returning home to win the third game of that series by a decisive 99-84 score. As it is, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Furthermore, the Raptors return home for the first time since April 24th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Additionally, Toronto is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the first two games have finished Over the Total, the Raptors have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable in this game with a twisted left ankle — but he has said he will take the court tonight. Even if he does not play, the Raptors supporting cast will play better back on their home court. Remember, this Toronto team is better than the one that took the Cavs to six games last season. They went 22-9 over their last thirty-one regular season games after acquiring Serge Ibaka. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 219 | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (505) and the Washington Wizards (506). Boston (59-31) shot 51.1% from the field for the second straight game to rally from a late hole to force overtime and defeat the Wizards by a 129-119 score. Isaiah Thomas was unstoppable in the 4th quarter and overtime by scoring 29 points during that span and 53 points overall — and this Washington team that ranked a lowly 20th during the regular season in Defensive Efficiency. As it is, the Celtics are 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Boston has also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Overs after scoring at least 125 points in their last contest. And while the Celtics have covered the points spread in six straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight contests. Furthermore, the Over is 9-4-1 in Boston’s last 14 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Celtics have played 5 of these games Over the Total. |
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05-04-17 | Senators v. Rangers UNDER 5 | Top | 1-4 | Push | 0 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Senators (1) and the New York Rangers (2). Ottawa (50-32-6) may have played their worst game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Tuesday in their 4-1 loss to the Rangers. Perhaps Guy Boucher’s team was complacent after rallying from a 5-3 deficit late in the 3rd period to force overtime where they then won in overtime in Game Two of this series. The Senators fell behind by a 2-0 score in the first period and later were down 4-0 in Game Three while getting thoroughly outplayed by a desperate New York team. Ottawa must tighten their control of the puck while goalie needs to stop being too frisky around the net where he has burned too many times in the postseason by leaving the pipes unprotected. After allowing nine goals over the last two games, the Senators should get back to their tight defensive tactics that emphasizing trapping in their 1-3-1 zone. Ottawa has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least three goals. The Senators have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least three goals. Furthermore, the Under is 37-18-5 in Ottawa’s last 60 games against Eastern Conference opponents. The good news for this team is that forward Bobby Ryan will take the ice in this game after suffering a lower-body injury. While Ryan is a crucial goal scorer for this team, his presence will keep Boucher confident in his teams defense-first tactics. |
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05-03-17 | Ducks v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (57) and the Edmonton Oilers (58). Anaheim (51-25-13) made this a series on Sunday by coming out on fire by scoring three goals in the first 11:51 of the first period to stun the Oilers and their home crown en route to their 6-3 victory to make this a 2-1 series for Edmonton. Those nine goals compelled the oddsmakers to raise the Total from 5 to 5.5 — and lets pounce on that opportunity to win the Totals play with a 3-2 result (a highly likely score for tonight’s game). The Ducks have seen just one of their games in the playoffs have a 5.5 number while this will be the first 5.5 for the Oilers this postseason. This critical fourth game should be a defensive struggle that gets physical like the Washington-Pittsburgh series. Despite the nine goals on Sunday, Anaheim and Edmonton only generated 28 and 27 shots on net respectively. Moving forward, the Ducks have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring at least four goals in their last game — and the Under is 3-0-2 in Anaheim’s last 5 games after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. The Under is also 16-5-5 in the Ducks’ last 26 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last contest. And in their last 8 games when playing with two days of rest, the Under is 5-1-2. |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 216 | Top | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (733) and the San Antonio Spurs (734). Houston (60-28) nailed 22 shots from behind the arc on Monday en route to their 126-99 win over the Spurs to take a 1-0 lead in this series as a 6-point underdog. The Rockets have then seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Houston will want to push the pace as fast as possible again tonight in Mike D’Antoni’s system as they hope to tire out this aging San Antonio team. The Rockets scored 112.8 PPG in the first-round of the playoffs while proudly being a beacon for the analytics community with 84% of their shots either being inside of 3-feet to the basket or from 3-point land. And Houston made only 28% of their 3-pointers against the Thunder — so the ceiling is high for this team if they can get closer to their 36% shooting mark from behind the arc. The Rockets have now won six of their last seven games — and they have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against familiar Southwest Division opponents. And in their last 8 games in the Western Conference Semifinals, Houston has played 7 of these games Over the Total. |
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05-02-17 | Blues v. Predators UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (53) and the Nashville Predators (54). Nashville (47-30-12) took a 2-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their 3-1 win over the Blues. Returning home really helps this Predators team since it affords head coach Peter Laviolette the right to make the final lineup change on the ice to produce the matchups he prefers. In the first two games of this series in St. Louis, the Blues head coach Mike Yeo chose have his star forward Vladimir Tarasenko match up against the Nashville defensive pairing of Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. Laviolette changed that dynamic up by having P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm be on the ice to slow Tarasenko down — and the Blues’ star managed just three shots on goal on Sunday. The Under is 4-0-2 in St. Louis’ last 6 games at home. Overall, the Blues held the Predators to just 23 shots on net which is not nearly enough pressure on goalie Pekka Rinne who had an outstanding 0.70 Goals-Against-Average along with a .976 save percentage in the opening round of the playoffs again the powerful Blackhawks. The Under is now 3-1-4 in Nashville’s last 8 games against familiar Central Division foes. And in their last 51 opportunities to host the Blues, the Under is 35-10-6 in Nashville. |
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04-30-17 | Cubs +103 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money line on the Chicago Cubs (929) versus the Boston Red Sox (930) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Eduardo Rodriguez. Chicago (13-10) snapped their two-game losing streak yesterday with their 7-4 win over the Red Sox. The Cubs have now won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also won 4 of their last 5 games Interleague play. And in their last 17 games on the road, the Cubs have won 12 of these games. They send out Hendricks who is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP this season. The right-hander was very reliable on the road last year where he had a 2.95 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP along with a .213 opponent’s batting average. This season, Hendricks has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in two starts on the road which are both better numbers than his 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in two starts at home in Wrigley. Chicago has won 8 straight road games with Hendricks on the hill. |
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04-30-17 | Ducks v. Oilers UNDER 5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Anaheim Ducks (11) and the Edmonton Oilers (12). Anaheim (50-25-13) will be playing with desperation tonight after falling behind 2-0 in this series with their 2-1 loss to the Oilers on Friday in Game Two of this series. This team has to play disciplined and give this dynamic Edmonton team less opportunities with a man-advantage after surrendering three Power Play goals in the first two games of this series. The Ducks have played 20 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played fifteen of their last seventeen road games Under the Total when that loss at home was by one goal. Anaheim has also played 14 of the last 21 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by just one goal. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-2 in the Ducks’ last 7 games played with one day of rest. And in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice, the Under is 8-3-6. |
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04-30-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
At 2:15 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the St. Louis Cardinals (906) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (905) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo. St. Louis (12-11) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-5 win over the Reds on Friday. The Cardinals have now won 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. This was the pitching matchup set for yesterday afternoon that we were ready to pounce on — and both managers plan to send out both starting pitchers again this afternoon. Leake is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in four starts this season while producing a strong 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27 1/3 innings of work. The right-hander comes off a nice outing where he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings of work in Milwaukee — and the Cards have won 4 of their last 5 games with Leake looking to follow up a Quality Start. He should fare well against this Reds team that has lost 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (735) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (736). Boston (57-31) rallied from a 2-0 hole in their series with the Bulls to win four straight games to advance to the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Who knows where that series would be if Chicago’s Rajon Rondo would not have suffered a season-ending injury after that second game — they probably would be playing a decisive seventh game this afternoon. But instead, the Celtics covered the point spread in all four of their victories culminating in as 105-83 victory in Chicago on Friday. Boston played their best game in the playoffs in that contest. Their 48.7% shooting percentage was their best offensive effort in their last eight games. And by holding the Bulls to just a 39.5% shooting mark, the Celtics produced their nest defensive performance in their last seven contests. Expect a big letdown in this contest after the team collectively exhales from the emotional effort that exhumed against Chicago. The Isaiah Thomas funeral situation continues to linger with the star point guard attending that event for his sister yesterday. As it is, Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after three straight wins. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after winning four straight games. And in their last 10 games on their home court, Boston has failed to cover the point spread 8 times. |
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04-29-17 | Penguins v. Capitals -145 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -145 | 1 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Capitals (58) versus the Pittsburgh Penguins (57). Washington (58-23-8) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 loss to the Penguins in the opening game of this series on Thursday. The Capitals started slow in that game but rallied to even that game at 2-2 in the 3rd period before Pittsburgh’s Nick Bonino scored the game winner. Washington dominated this game in the second half of the contest. Overall, Washington outshot the Penguins by a 35-21 margin while generating 83 overall attempts that overwhelmed Pittsburgh’s 41 shots attempts. The Capitals also out-hit the Penguins by a 41-17 margin. Pittsburgh enjoyed the only two Power Play opportunities in that game that goalie Braden Holtby took the blame afterwards. Expect Holtby to play much better in this contest. He entered this series with a .936 career postseason save percentage. At home during the regular season, Holtby has a 1.69 Goals-Againts-Average along with a .934 save percentage this season. |
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04-29-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (959) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (960) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Zack Greinke. Colorado (15-9) won the opening game of this series last night by a 3-1 score. The Rockies have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Anderson who is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in five starts this season. Zero of these five starts qualified as Qualified Starts for Anderson as his lack of an effective breaking pitch has significantly reduced his reliability. Last season, the left-hander had a 5-6 record with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP — but those numbers rose to a 4.71 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP when on the road. The Rockies have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Anderson pitching with four days rest as he does tonight. That is not a good sign when facing this Diamondbacks team that has seen the Over 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. |
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04-29-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (979) and the Boston Red Sox (980) listing both starting pitchers John Lackey and Steven Wright. Chicago (12-10) looks to bounce-back from a 5-4 loss to the Red Sox last night. The Cubs have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss. Chicago has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Cubbies have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Lackey who is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP this season. There were signs last season that the 38-year old was about to experience some series regression in his effectiveness. His 34.4% hard contact rate last season was the worst of his career. Lackey was not as effective on the road last year where he had a 4.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .234 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. This season, Lackey has a rough 6.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP when on the road. Chicago has played 5 straight road games Over the Total with Lackey on the hill. |
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04-29-17 | Rangers v. Senators OVER 5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (55) and the Ottawa Senators (56). New York (52-32-8) lost the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 2-1 loss to the Senators. Now facing the prospects of returning home down 0-2 in this series, this Rangers team will be playing with desperation. New York has lost two straight games to the Senators after their 3-1 loss back on April 8th in the closing days of the regular season. Expect this Rangers team with plenty of firepower to amp up their aggressiveness. Head coach Alain Vigneault can roll four forward lines — and three of those lines are quite potent as they helped elevate this team to being 4th in the league by scoring 3.1 Goals-Per-Game. All four lines features at least one player that scored at least 20 goals during the regular season. The Rangers have played 14 of their last 19 road gams Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. This team has also played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge and failing to score more than one goal in either game. Furthermore, in games with the Total set at 5 or less, when the road team is both playing with double-revenge and comes off a loss on the road, these games finished Over the Total in 91 of the last 131 situations (70%) where these conditions applied. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 195 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (507) and the Utah Jazz (508). Utah (54-33) has significantly upped its game on the defensive end of the court with the return of their rim protector Rudy Gobert. The Jazz held the Clippers to just 42% shooting on Tuesday en route to their 96-92 victory as a 3-point underdog to help them take a 3-2 lead in this series. That came on the heels of holding Los Angeles to just 44% shooting in the fourth game of this series. Gobert is one of the top candidates to win Defensive Player of the Year honors this season after holding opponents to just a 43.9% shooting clip at the rim with contested shots during the regular season. Now with the Jazz having the opportunity to close this series out on their home court, expect a lower scoring contest with the stakes so high. Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. But this can be a team that struggles to score points. They were 27th in the NBA during the regular season with a 100.7 PPG scoring average. Quin Snyder’s team also plays the slowest pace in the league. Furthermore, in the Jazz’s last 75 games as a favorite in the 3.5-9.5 point range, Utah has played 46 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-28-17 | Oilers v. Ducks -137 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -137 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Anaheim Ducks (52) versus the Edmonton Oilers (51). Anaheim (50-24-13) looks to bounce-back from a 5-3 loss in the opening game of this series. The Ducks’ defense fell apart by allowing four goals (one was an empty netter) to lose that game. The Ducks have been injured on their blue line but are getting healthy again with that unit. While it looks like they ran out of gas on Wednesday, expect this group to play better tonight. Anaheim has won 11 of their last 12 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Ducks have also won 23 of their last 31 games when playing with one day of rest. Anaheim has to play more disciplined tonight after getting away with being the most penalized team in the first round of the playoffs in terms of minutes. The Ducks allowed two Power Play goals while giving the Oilers five Power Play opportunities in that contest. Anaheim has not lost two games in a row since the first two games of the regular season. This team has also won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. |
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04-28-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -148 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Cincinnati Reds (907) listen both starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Tim Adleman. St. Louis (11-11) has won five of their last six games with their 6-4 win over the Blue Jays yesterday. The Cardinals have then won 5 of their last 7 games after a win. St. Louis has also won 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their lsat game. And in their last 6 games at home, the Cardinals have won 5 of these contests. They send out Lynn who is having a very nice comeback season so far after missing all of 2016 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. In four starts this season, the right-hander has a 2-1 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP while striking out 20 batters in 23 1/3 innings of work. Lynn was more effective at home back in 2015 where he enjoyed a 2.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 3.15 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .274 opponent’s batting average when on the road. In two home starts this season, Lynn has a 1.46 ERA along with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .078. The Cardinals have won 25 of their last 33 home games with Lynn facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Reds team that has lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams using a right-handed starting pitcher. Furthermore, Cincy has lost a decisive 42 of their last 59 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. |
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04-27-17 | A's v. Angels -111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:07 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (968) versus the Oakland A’s (967) listing both starting pitchers Ricky Nolasco and Kendall Graveman. Los Angeles (11-12) has won four of their last five games with their 8-5 win over the A’s last night. The Angels have then won 15 of their last 22 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also won 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 20 home games against teams with a losing record on the road, the Angels have won 15 of these contests. They send out Nolasco who is 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. The right-hander has not pitched in eight days as the team took his aside to work on some mechanical issues after surrendering too many home runs. The LA pitching coach Charles Nagy did a very nice job with Nolasco last season after the team picked him up from the Twins. In eleven starts with the Angels last year, Nolasco posted a 3.21 ERA along with a 1.07 WHIP — so confidence is warranted in Nagy’s ability to help his address his propensity to give up gopher balls. What is encouraging is that Nolasco has a strong 17:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio — and he has not issued a base-on-balls in his last twelve frames. The Angels have won 5 of their last 7 games with Nolasco pitching on grass. He should fare well against this A’s team that has lost 5 of their last 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-26-17 | Predators v. Blues UNDER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (1) and the St. Louis Blues (2). Nashville (45-29-12) enters this series after a surprising 4-0 sweep over the Chicago Blackhawks in the opening round of the playoffs. That series ended last Thursday — expect the time off to negatively impact the timing for this team on offense. As it is, the Under is 3-0-4 in the Predators’ last 7 games after a win. While their top line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson is as good as any in the league, this team does experience big drop-off after that. James Neal anchors the second line — but he had only one assist and zero goals in Round One. But this Nashville defense should be outstanding once again tonight. The Predators enjoy two elite defensive pairings with Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis along with P.K. Subban and Matthias Ekholm. They held the potent Blackhawks offense that averaged 31 shots per game in that series to just three combined goals. Of course, goalie Pekka Rinne had something to do with that as well — he had a spectacular .976 save percentage along with a 0.70 Goals-Against-Average in that series. Moving forward, the Under is 4-1-2 in Nashville’s last 7 games on the road. |
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04-26-17 | Rays v. Orioles -146 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money line on the Baltimore Orioles (918) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (917) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Bundy and Alex Cobb. Baltimore (13-6) looks to bounce-back and win this AL East series tonight after their 2-0 loss to the Rays yesterday. The Orioles have rebounded to win 16 of their last 21 games after a loss. Baltimore has also won 8 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Orioles have won 7 straight games after a game where neither team scored more than two runs in their last game. Baltimore won the opening game of this series with a 6-3 win on Monday — and they have then won 31 of their last 43 games after allowing no more than three runs in two straight games. They send out Bundy who is 3-1 with a 1.37 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP this season. The right-hander sports an impressive 20:4 strikeout to walk ratio in 26 1/3 innings of work. Last season, Bundy was more effective at home where he sported a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229 as compared to his 5.21 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .293 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Orioles have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Bundy on the bump. He should fare well against this Rays team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -6 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington Wizards (710) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (709). Washington (51-35) returns home with this series tied at 2-2 after their 111-101 loss to the Hawks on Monday. The Wizards have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against an opponent that allowed at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last contest, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. Remember, this Washington team was outstanding for most of the season — they had the 3rd best record in the entire NBA over the last 65 games of the regular season with a 43-21 mark. This Wizards team is also much better at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Furthermore, Washington has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Additionally, the Wizards have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. |
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04-25-17 | Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (705) plus the points versus the Houston Rockets (706). Houston (58-28) took a commanding 3-1 lead in this series on Sunday with their 113-109 win over the Thunder as a 1.5-point underdog. But the Rockets have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. This team will probably win this game tonight — but they do not play good enough on the defensive end of the court to be reliable when being asked to lay 8 or so points. Houston allows 109.4 PPG and they have allowed their last five opponents to make over 47% of their shots from the field. Additionally, the Rockets consistently fail to meet point spread expectations when playing at home. Not only has Houston failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams that have a losing record on the road. |
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04-25-17 | Mariners v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (971) and the Detroit Tigers (972) listing both starting pitchers Felix Hernandez and Jordan Zimmermann. Seattle (8-12) enters this series coming off an 11-1 win at Oakland on Sunday which was a nice win for Mariners’ bettors who were getting +115 on the money line. The Mariners have then played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after an upset win over a divisional rival. Seattle has also played 13 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They send out Hernandez who is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP so far this season. The aging right-hander has seen his effectiveness drop as he has been losing velocity. His 3.8 walk rate per 9 innings was the worst of his career. The King was not as effective on the road last year where he was saddled with a 1.49 WHIP and .253 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 1.19 WHIP and .228 opponent’s batting average when at home. This season, Hernandez has a 4.09 ERA along with a dangerous .333 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Mariners have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle has also seen the Over go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games in Detroit with Hernandez on the mound. That spells trouble when facing this Tigers’ team that has seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 211 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (519) and the Atlanta Hawks (520). Washington (51-34) allowed the Hawks to shoot 49.4% from the field on Saturday in their 116-98 loss in Game Three of this series. That was the Wizards’ second worst defensive effort over their last seven contests. This team must increase their pressure on the Hawks’ point guard Dennis Schroder who has averaged 25 PPG in this series after registering 27 points in his team’s Game Three victory. Washington also shot just 41.6% from the field in their first road game in this series. Furthermore, the Under is supported by a historical angle that has been 71% effective since 1996. This is Washington’s just fifth game in the last fourteen days — and in games with the Total set at least at 200 involving a road team with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range playing no more than their fifth game in fourteen days now facing a team with a winning record, these games finished Under the Total in 46 of the last 65 situations where these conditions applied. |
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04-24-17 | Cubs -142 v. Pirates | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money line on the Chicago Cubs (901) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Brad Anderson and Chad Kuhl. Chicago (10-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 7-5 loss in Cincinnati. The Cubs have bounced-back to win 26 of their last 36 games after a loss. Chicago has also won 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 5 runs in their last game. And in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Cubs have won all 4 of these games. They send out Anderson who is 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season. The left-hander should have something to prove tonight after failing to get out of the 4th inning in his last start against the Brewers where he allowed six earned runs. Anderson made only three starts in an injury filled campaign with the Dodgers last season but he was more effective on the road in the previous year. In 2015, Anderson had a 3.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .266 opponent’s batting average on the road as compared to his 4.29 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .290 opponent’s batting average when at home. Anderson should have a good start against the Pirates team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. |
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04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (963) and the New York Mets (964) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler. Washington (12-5) has won six straight games after their 3-1 win over the Mets yesterday. The Nationals have then played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against an opponent that failed to score more than two runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in Washington’s last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. And in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Nationals have played 10 of these games Over the Total. They send out Scherzer who is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP this season. The right-hander was very tough at home last year where he had a 2.56 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .193. However, those numbers rose to a 3.28 ERA along with 1.00 WHIP and .203 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Scherzer facing a team with a losing record. Furthermore, the Over us 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (514) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (513). Chicago (43-42) looks to bounce-back from their 104-87 loss to the Celtics on Friday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bulls struggled to run their offense without Rajon Rondo — and the point guard will likely be out for the rest of this series. But expect Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams to play better with a game under their belts. And expect Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to help fill in some gaps. As it is, Chicago has rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Bulls have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on their home court after a double-digit setback. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to score more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, this Bulls team remains a team that has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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04-22-17 | Warriors v. Blazers +7 | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (508) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (508). Portland (41-43) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 110-81 to the Warriors on Wednesday as a 12-point underdog. The Trail Blazers have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This shot just 33.3% from the field in that game which was their worst offensive effort in their last eighteen contests. Portland has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread setback. And while the Blazers have dropped the first two games of this series, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after two straight losses on the road. Returning home should help where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games. This team also won eleven of their last fourteen games on their home court to close out the regular season. Portland has also covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. |
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04-22-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers UNDER 5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Canadiens (51) and the New York Rangers (52). Montreal (49-29-9) finds themselves on the brink of elimination with their 3-2 loss in overtime to the Rangers on Thursday. The Under is then 9-3-5 in the Canadiens’ last 17 games after scoring two goals or less. The Montreal offense has also been hit with a tough injury as Andrew Shah will be out for tonight’s game after suffering an upper body injury in overtime on Thursday. The Canadiens will be facing a very hot goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist who has a sizzling .944 save percentage in this series. Now Montreal goes on the road to Madison Square Garden — and the Under is 15-3-3 in their last 21 games on the road. The Under is also 8-1-3 in the Canadiens’ last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, the Under is 19-6-6 in Montreal’s last 31 games against Eastern Conference opponents. |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (505) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (506). San Antonio (63-22) looks to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series tonight after losing to the Grizzlies by a 105-94 score. Head coach Gregg Popovich benched his five starters with less than a minute into the second half for sloppy play — and that should send a very stern message to his team moving forward in this postseason. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games when looking to avenge a loss to their opponents. San Antonio is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 6 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game, the Spurs have covered the point spread 5 times. And in their last 8 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 6 of those contests. |
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04-21-17 | Bruins v. Senators +102 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Ottawa Senators (10) versus the Boston Bruins (9). Ottawa (47-30-6) has won the last three games of this series to take a commanding 3-1 lead in games in this series after their 1-0 win in Boston on Wednesday. Yet this Senators team continues to not get respect from the betting public with the Bruins being bet to a small favorite despite playing on the road. This is the healthiest that Guy Boucher’s team has been all season so perhaps we should not be too surprised that they are overwhelming this injury-riddled Boston team. As it is, Ottawa has won 4 of their last 5 games after a win. The Senators have also won 8 of their last 10 games after a shutout win on the road. Additionally, Ottawa has won 4 of their last 5 games on home ice. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Senators have won 5 of these games. |
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04-21-17 | Celtics -2 v. Bulls | Top | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (715) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (716). Boston (53-31) finds themselves in a desperate situation tonight having dropped the first two games of this series on their home court after a 111-97 loss on Tuesday despite being a 7.5-point favorite. Brad Stevens team has responded well after poor efforts as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit setback. The team has been distracted and had their energy sapped due to the tragic death of Isaiah Thomas’ sister — but with the obvious sense of urgency this team now faces, expect the Celtics to respond with their best effort of this series tonight. Boston has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing with double-revenge. Furthermore, this deep team has proven themselves as capable road warriors considering that they are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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04-20-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 188 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (713) and the Memphis Grizzlies (714). San Antonio (63-21) seized a 2-0 lead in this series on Monday with their 96-82 win over the Grizzlies as a 10.5-point favorite. The Spurs have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. |
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04-20-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (714) plus the points versus the San Antonio Spurs (713). Memphis (43-41) returns home looking to bounce-back from a 96-82 loss to the Spurs on Monday as a 10.5-point underdog. Head coach David Fizdale issued an epic rant after the game complaining about the officiating in that game. He has a point. The Grizzlies scored 35 points in the paint but attempted 15 free throws while the Spurs scored just 18 points in the paint but got to the line 32 times. Kawhi Leonard’s 19 free throws were more then the entire Memphis team. Expect the Grizzlies to see more whistles in this game. The oddsmakers seem to agree with Memphis opening as a small 2.5-point underdog which looked pretty low for a team that was blown out by 14 and 29 points. Certainly it is a good bet that Zack Randolph will get to the charity stripe at least once tonight after not attempting even one free throw on Monday. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 8 games on TNT Thursday, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread 7 times. |
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04-20-17 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 0 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Columbus Bluejackets (3) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (4). Pittsburgh (54-21-6) must improve their effort on defense after losing their first game in this series by a 5-4 score to the Bluejackets on Tuesday. With a 3-1 series lead, the Penguins look to close out this series tonight and not give this physical Columbus team any signs of life. This team also needs to shore things up on their blue-line when considering that they will have to defend their Stanley Cup Championship without their top defenseman Kris Letang. As it is, the Under is 3-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. And while the Penguins allowed two goals in the third period on Tuesday, they have then played 12 of their last 17 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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04-19-17 | Wild v. Blues +102 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money line on the St. Louis Blues (62) versus the Minnesota Wild (61). Minnesota (49-28-8) finds themselves on the brink of elimination tonight after losing the third game of this series by a 3-1 score. The Wild have only scored three goals in this series which has compelled head coach Bruce Bordeau to split up forwards Mikael Granlund and Miku Koivu to put them on different lines. That smacks of desperation — but this is also a team that nose-dived in the month of March. This is a team full of bad vibes with a head coach that may struggle to inspire confidence given his years of underachievement in the postseason with Anaheim. Minnesota has now lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Wild have also lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road. And in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home, Minnesota has lost all 7 games. |
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04-19-17 | Hawks +5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (701) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (702). Atlanta (43-40) found themselves up 48-45 at the half on Sunday in a first half that was at their pace — but then the Wizards exploded for 38 points in the 3rd period en route to their 114-107 victory. Over there last two days, Mike Budenholzer has been working with his team to slow down Washington and transition and make this into a slower-tempo game like it was in those first 24 minutes on Sunday. The Hawks were 4th in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions. Atlanta’s vast playoff experience edge should help them keep this game very close (at least) tonight. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after a game against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has lost two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 road games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 194 | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Toronto Raptors (526). Toronto (51-32) lost their ninth straight opening game to the postseason on Sunday with their 97-83 loss to the Bucks as a 7.5-point underdog. Scoring was a problem for this team as they shot just 36% from the field while managing only 32 points in the second half. This Milwaukee team is underrated on the defensive end of the court particularly with Khris Middleton healthy and contributing. The Raptors must get back into this series by playing harder on the defensive end of their end. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 28 points in the victory with the Raptors head coach Dwane Casey declaring that his team must get back in transition to limit the Greek superstar’s offensive fireworks. With the acquisitions of P.J. Tucker and Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline, this Toronto team is significantly better on defense. After allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions before they both arrived, that number dropped to allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions which was 5th best in the league over that final span of games. The Raptors should comeback with a strong defensive effort. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Moving forward, the Raptors have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Toronto has played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 189 | Top | 82-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (519) and the San Antonio Spurs (520). San Antonio (62-21) trailed by 13 points in the first quarter on Saturday — but this team stepped up their level of play to go on a 19-0 run to close out the 3rd quarter and begin the 4th quarter to pull away for an easy 111-82 victory. The Spurs have then played 16 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. San Antonio has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. With the Grizzlies missing their defensive spark plug in Tony Allen, the Spurs were able to shoot 53.2% from the floor. Allen remains out in this series with his leg injury so San Antonio should continue to have their way on offense. They have now played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against Western Conference opponents. |
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04-17-17 | Blackhawks +100 v. Predators | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the money line on the Chicago Blackhawks (13) versus the Nashville Predators (14). Chicago (50-25-9) has yet to score a goal in this series having fallen behind by a 2-0 margin after getting blown out at home by a 5-0 score on Saturday. Expect the Blackhawks to come out with plenty of energy and emotion in this must-win game. Playing on the road will not intimidate this team that was 24-13-4 on the road this season which was the best mark away from home in the Western Conference. This core group of multiple Stanley Cup Champions have plenty of success playing in hostile environments on the road. Chicago has won 18 of their last 24 road games after failing to score more than two goals in each of their last two games. The Blackhawks have also won 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The plan for this team after their 1-0 loss on Thursday where they outshot the Predators by a 29-20 margin was to crowd goalie Pekka Rinne and blind him from potential shots coming in. Those aspirations never came to pass on Saturday with Nashville scoring goals in all three periods and owning a 3-0 lead entering the 3rd period. But this Blackhawks team has plenty of experience — and success — against Rinne so expect them to break through tonight. The Predators allow 30.1 shots per game and their Power Play Kill Unit allows opponents to score in 18.8% of their opportunities with a man advantage — and Chicago has won 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow at least 29 shots per game with a Power Play Kill no better than 17%. The Blackhawks have also won 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. |
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04-16-17 | Oilers v. Sharks -125 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the money line on the San Jose Sharks (8) versus the Edmonton Oilers (7). San Jose (47-30-6) surrendered two (TWO!) short-handed goals on Friday in their 2-0 loss to the Oilers which knotted this series at one-game apiece. Now the Sharks return home where they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last twelve home games, they have not allowed more than two goals in eight of those occasions. Look for the defending Western Conference Champions to rebound with a strong effort as they have won 12 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least two goals. The experience of this team should play a big role in this decisive third game of this series — and San Jose has won 21 of their last 30 Game Three opportunities. In some ways, the Sharks could be up 2-0 in this series. On the other hand, they might have been outplayed in their opening game win in overtime in this series where they rallied from an 0-2 deficit. But when considering that both Brett Burns and Joe Pavelski have yet to earn a point in this series, this San Jose team has to think things will start picking up for them. They have to be more aggressive after being outshot by a 36-16 margin on Friday. Don’t be surprised if Joe Thornton returns to the ice after dealing with a knee injury. |
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04-16-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7 | Top | 87-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (516) minus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (515). Houston (55-27) closed out the regular season winning five of their last seven games — but they failed to reward bettors by failing to cover the point spread in six straight games while going 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine contest. I like the Rockets from this technical perspective in this opening contest — and this is a team that has covered the point spread in 71 of their last 115 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The rest should also help this team recharge their jets in Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo offense that led the NBA in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The Rockets won three of the four meetings between these two teams while making 37.5% of their 3-pointers which was an uptick versus their 35.7% mark overall. Expect this Houston team to take a page out of the old “Jordan Rules” that the Detroit Pistons used to great success against Michael Jordan in the late-1980s. The Rockets will let Russell Westbrook put up great numbers: he averaged 36.3 PPG along with 9.0 RPG and 9.3 APG in those four games this season. But make Westbrook get tired while failing to get his teammates involved offers them an opportunity to overwhelm the Thunder. |
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04-15-17 | Flames v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Calgary Flames (85) and the Anaheim Ducks (86). Anaheim (47-23-13) took the opening game of this series on Thursday with their 3-2 victory over the Flames. This game entered the third period at that score before both teams failed to score in the final 20 minutes of play. The Ducks peppered Calgary’s Brian Elliott with 41 shots on net to secure their three goals. They have now scored at least three goals in five straight games — and they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after scoring at least three goals in three straight games. Anaheim has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last game. |
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04-15-17 | Pacers v. Cavs -8.5 | Top | 108-109 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (502) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (501). Cleveland (51-31) limps into the playoffs having lost four straight games. But if you think this team can not flip the switch at a moment’s notice, then let me remind you of their April 5th “showdown” with Boston for the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs in which they destroyed the Celtics by a 114-91 score. And that game was played without rest — so that was likely a small glimpse of how this team can raise their level of play when they want to do so. Frankly, the regular season simply does not mean much to a team that can seize home court advantage again by turning up the intensity just once in the first two road games in Boston — if that series even happens. The rest will help the Cavaliers — they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when playing their second game in five days. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 25 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, the Cavs have covered the point spread in 17 of these games. |
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04-14-17 | Sharks +121 v. Oilers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the San Jose Sharks (77) versus the Edmonton Oilers (78). Edmonton (47-27-4) is an intriguing team for the public with the heir apparent to Sidney Crosby in being the best player in the world in Connor McDavid. The 19-year old led the Oilers to a 33-point improvement from his team’s record in his rookie season last year. But McDavid and his group of mostly playoff debutantes are in for a rude awakening regarding what it is like for men fully developed physically and emotionally who are experienced in the grind we call NHL Playoff Hockey. After surging to a 2-0 lead after the first 20 minutes of play in front of an energetic crowd, Edmonton was then thoroughly outclassed as they were out-shot by a decisive 34-9 margin while outscored by a 3-0 margin in the remaining 63:22 for the defending Western Conference champions to steal a 3-2 victory. Frankly, while this Oilers team is a nice story, they are not built for playoff hockey. For starters, eleven of their twenty-three players made their Stanley Cup Playoffs debut on Wednesday. Their roster has played a combined 342 playoff games entering this series with nearly one-third of those games coming from one player in left-winger Milan Lucic. That is about a quarter of the experience this Sharks’ team has with their players having logged 1169 playoff games entering this postseason. Edmonton is not very good defensively either — the allow 2.6 Goals-Per-Game on 29.6 shots per contest and their Power Play Kill Unit is just 19.2% effective. We have made a living betting against these young, offensive-oriented teams with suspect defenses once the playoffs begin. The Oilers certainly do not have an advantage between the pipes with Cam Talbot who was a career backup to Henrik Lundqvist before signing a big contract with the Oilers. In the second-half of the season since the All-Star Break, Talbot is saddled with a 2.50 Goals-Against-Average and .914 save percentage. The Sharks’ Martin Jones has a similar pedigree being an understudy to Jonathan Quick — but Jones proved his bonafides as a big-time goalie by taking his team to the Stanley Cup Finals last year. Additionally, the Oilers have lost 15 of their last 21 home games when attempting to avenge a one-goal loss. |
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04-14-17 | Cardinals +126 v. Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the St. Louis Cardinals (929) versus the New York Yankees (930) listing both starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Masahiro Tanaka. St. Louis (3-6) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 6-1 win at Washington. The Cardinals have then won 6 of their last 7 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. St. Louis has also won 4 of their last 5 games in Interleave play on the road. They send out Wacha who allowed only one eared run and just three hits in 6 innings in his first start this season. The right-hander struggled at home last year — but he was very solid when pitching on the road where he had a 3.92 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246. The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 6 road games with Wacha on the mound. And in their last 6 games in Interleague play, St. Louis has won 5 of these games. He has an outstanding chance to win this game against this overrated Yankees team that has lost 11 of their last 16 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-13-17 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nashville Predators (13) and the Chicago Blackhawks (14). Nashville (41-29-12) entered this season with question marks regarding their offense with a big drop-off in forward scoring depth after Filip Forsberg and James Neal. Viktor Arviddson stepped up by scoring 31 goals and adding 30 assists to give Peter Laviolette’s team more punch. But Ardividdson plays on the same line with Forsberg and center Ryan Johansen which affords Chicago head coach Joel Quenneville to counter with his master defenseman Duncan Keith against that potent forward line. With the suspect depth of this Predators’ forward group further challenged with both Colin Wilson and Calle Jarnkrok questionable with injuries, this Nashville team cannot get into a high scoring affair with the Blackhawks. Expect the Predators to lean heavily on their outstanding blue line which features four elite defenders led by P.K. Subbing and Roman Josi. The team needs their goalie Pekka Rinne to step up as well in these playoffs — and they can be encouraged by his 1.98 Goals-Against-Average and .932 save percentage over the last thirteen games of the regular season. The Under is 3-1-3 in Nashville’s last 7 games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Predators’ last 5 games on the road. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 5-1-1. Furthermore, Nashville will be looking to avenge a 5-3 loss to the Blackhawks at home back on March 4th — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two goals to their opponent. |
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04-12-17 | Rangers v. Canadiens -149 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -149 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Montreal Canadiens (2) versus the New York Rangers (1). Montreal (47-26-9) will be particularly motivated tonight with an opportunity to earn revenge against a Rangers team that they lost to in six games in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals after goalie Carey Price suffered a season-ending injury via a questionable cheap shot from the Rangers’ Chris Kreider. This Canadiens’ team stepped up their level of play this season after firing head coach Michael Therrien and bringing in Claude Julien who won a Stanley Cup in Boston before letting him go this season. Sometimes these veteran coaches see their message get stale with a core group of vets who have heard it year after year. So while a change was needed with the Bruins, Julien is a great fit in Montreal to implement his defensive system that will accentuate the elite talent of Price between the pipes. The Canadiens committed far fewer penalties under Julien while seeing their Power Play Kill Unit succeed 88.4% of the time. Montreal went 16-7-1 since Julien took over while seeing their Goals-Against-Average drop by 0.50 over that span. Price sported a 2.07 GAA since the All-Star Break with a .926 save percentage — and his even strength save percentage rose from .934 to .944 under Julien. On home ice, Price also enjoys a 2.09 GAA along with a .929 save percentage. The Canadiens enter the playoffs hot having won six of their last eight games. Injuries look to be settling with both Captain Max Pacioretty and key defenseman Shea Weber listed as probable tonight after they dealt with injuries to close out the season. Montreal has won 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 10 games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, the Canadiens have won 8 of these contests. |
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04-10-17 | Pacers v. 76ers UNDER 211.5 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (701) and the Philadelphia 76ers (702). Indiana (40-40) shot 59.3% from the field — the best offensive effort for them this entire season — en route to their 127-112 win in Orlando on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Regression on the offensive end of the court for this team is very likely. The Pacers score only 102.9 PPG when on the road on 45.3% shooting. They have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field. Indiana has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. And in their last 17 games after a point spread win, the Pacers have played 12 of these games Under the Total. This team still has plenty to play for — they are one game behind the Bucks in the 6th spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt but only one game ahead of both the Bulls and the Heat who both own the tie-breaker against them if they do end up with the same record after Wednesday. So this Indiana team could still manage to be on the outside looking in with these playoffs. Moving forward, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. And in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home, the Pacers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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04-09-17 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 130 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Mets (964) minus the 1.5 Run-Line versus the Miami Marlins (963) listing both starting pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Edison Volquez. Miami (3-2) has won the three of their first five games this season after crushing the Mets yesterday by an 8-1 score. The Marlins have hot bats to begin the season as they are hitting .291 as a team. But the Mets have won a decisive 45 of their last 66 games against teams who are hitting at least .280. Furthermore, because the Marlins underdogs priced in the +160 range despite that big batting average, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line. Teams priced in the +165 to -135 range with the money-line who are hitting at last .275 as a team have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 38 of the last 51 situations where these conditions applied. Miami has also lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. They send out Edison Volquez who did not allow an earned run in his first start lasting 5 innings against the Nationals. But the right-hander struggled on the road last season where he was saddled with a 5.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287. The 33-year old is enduring a continuing slide in his velocity. After averaging strikeout per inning back in 2010, Volquez endured a career-low 6.6 strikeout per 9 inning rate last year. At this stage in his career, Volquez will have to learn to rely less on his fastball which is not very encouraging. Furthermore, he faces a Mets team that has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. |
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04-08-17 | Heat +4 v. Wizards | Top | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (707) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (708). Miami (38-41) fell behind by 18 points in the first-half last night in Toronto but conducted a serious comeback to tie the game in the 4th quarter but they could not hold on as they lost to the Raptors by a 96-94 score. This Heat team now finds themselves one game behind both Chicago and Indiana as these three teams fight for the last two spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Miami did cover the 4.5-point spread a san underdog — this is a feisty team that plays hard every night for head coach Eric Spoelstra. Expect another strong effort from this young team. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games when playing without a day of rest. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Heat covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. And in their last 30 trips to Washington to play the Wizards, Miami is 21-8-1 ATS. |
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04-07-17 | Kings +3 v. Lakers | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (517) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (518). Los Angeles (23-55) has won two straight games after their surprising 102-95 win at San Antonio on Wednesday as a 13.5-point underdog. The Lakers were able to take advantage of a Spurs’ team resting most of their key players having secured the 2nd spot in the Western Conference playoffs. But with this franchise needing to finish in the bottom three of the NBA standings to maintain their protected first round draft choice that would otherwise go to the 76ers, expect this team to fully embrace going into the proverbial tank. Injuries creates the opportunity for Luke Walton to “manage” this situation. D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson are questionable with knee injuries while Brandon Ingram will play with limited minutes as he deals with tendinitis. As it is, the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Los Angeles returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Lakers are also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. And in their last 11 games against fellow Pacific Division foes, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. |
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04-07-17 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (51) and the Montreal Canadiens (52). Expect a playoff atmosphere in Montreal tonight in this contest — and that should result in a higher reliance on fundamental defense and more physical play. Tampa Bay (40-37-7) remains alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race after their big 4-1 win in Toronto last night. The Lightning need to win out tonight and in their final regular season contest on Sunday while getting some help — but it certainly remains possible. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing two goals or less in their last game. The Under is also 6-1-1 in the Lightning’s last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. They turn to goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy who was outstanding last night by stopping 26 of the 27 shots he has faced. The Russian goaltender has a 2.01 Goals-Against-Average and .940 save percentage in three pressured-packed games this month. He has also been better on the road where he has a 2.44 GAA and .924 save percentage as compared to his 2.78 GAA and .911 save percentage when at home. The Lightning has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when on the road. This team is missing pieces on offense with Tyler Johnson questionable with a lower body injury and Steven Stamkos declaring that he will not be able to come back from his injury until the playoffs. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow Atlantic Division opponents. |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (712) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (711). Portland (38-40) had a six-game winning streak going — but now they have dropped two straight games after their 106-87 loss in Utah as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday. Frankly, this was one of their worst games of the season. Their 39.8% shooting mark was their worst field goal percentage in their last six games but the The Trail Blazers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This group has proven themselves to be a second-half team over the last two seasons. They began the week with the very best record in the NBA since March 1st before dropping these two games this week. This team is thin on their front court with Jusuf Nurkic out the rest of the regular season with a leg injury. But they still have Damian Lillard who scored 29.1 PPG in the month of March. Portland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Blazers return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight contests. Portland has also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against fellow Western Conference opponents. |
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04-05-17 | Mavs +12 v. Clippers | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (515) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (516). Los Angeles (47-31) has won three straight games with their 115-104 win over the Lakers on Saturday. Trailing the Utah Jazz by just one game for 4th place in the Western Conference playoff race, the Clippers still have much to play for before the playoffs begin next week. But I hate having to expect Doc Rivers’ team to cover the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. The Clippers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And not only has this LA team failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit victory. |
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04-04-17 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Blackhawks (19) and the Colorado Avalanche (20). Chicago (50-22-6) looks to bounce-back from their 3-2 loss at home against Boston on Sunday. The Blackhawks have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by one goal on their home ice. The Over is also 26-10-15 in Chicago’s last 51 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. Now the Blackhawks go on the road where the Over is 16-6-4 in their last 26 games. The Over is also 9-2-2 in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on home ice. It looks like backup goalie Scott Darling will be between the pipes tonight. While Darling has a strong 2.15 Goals-Against-Average and .932 save percentage at home, those numbers rise to a 2.52 GAA and .914 save percentage when on the road this season. Furthermore, the Over is 11-2-3 in the Blackhawks’ last 16 games against fellow Central Division opponents. |
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04-04-17 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 141-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (701) and the Philadelphia 76ers (702). Brooklyn (18-59) has won two straight games with their 91-82 win over Atlanta on Sunday. The Nets have then seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Brooklyn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. This Nets team is playing better basketball as of late fueled by improved play on the defensive end of the court. The have the best statistical defense in the entire league over the last two weeks while allowing their last five opponents to shoot just 41.3% from the field. But this Brooklyn team is also making only 29% of their 3-point shots over that span. Moving forward, the Nets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Brooklyn has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +1.5 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (602) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (601). North Carolina (32-7) looked very shaky down the stretch against Oregon on Saturday but managed to hang on for a 77-76 victory. That ended up being a very close game despite the Ducks making only 37.9% of their shots. The Tar Heels also made 8 of their 21 shots from the 3-point line for a 38.1% clip which was above their 36.2% season-average. But North Carolina made only 17 of their 47 shots inside the arc for a low 36.2% mark. Over their last three games, the Tar Heels are shooting just 40% from the field. These are all very concerning trends for a team that has shown a proclivity all season to blow leads when away from Chapel Hill this season. Furthermore, point guard Joel Berry II still looked to be hobbled with his two twisted ankles Saturday night despite having six days to recuperate. Over his last six games going back to the ACC Tournament, Berry II has made only 20 of his 68 shots. North Carolina is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 4 games as a favorite laying less than 7 points, the Tar Heels are just 0-3-1 ATS. |
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04-02-17 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Coyotes (21) and the Los Angeles Kings (22). Los Angeles (37-33-3) staved off elimination from the playoff race earlier today when Nashville lost in St. Louis by a 4-1 score. So while the Kings need to win out in their rest of their five games — and the Predators must lose their remaining three contests — this proud organization remains alive in the Western Conference playoff hunt so expect a top notch performance from them tonight. Los Angeles has won two straight games after their 2-0 shutout win in Vancouver on Friday. That came on the heels of their surprising 4-1 win in Calgary on Wednesday (well, it was surprising to us who had the Flames in that game). These Kings are playing physical, tough defense buoyed by the fact that they have their elite goaltender Jonathan Quick back on the ice playing exceptional hockey. Quick retains a sensational 1.56 Goals-Against-Average along with a .938 save percentage in his seven starts at home in the Staples Center this season. Moving forward, the Kings have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than one goal in two straight games. The Under is also 19-8-11 in their last 38 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Additionally, the Under is both 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on home ice as well as a decisive 58-26-15 in their last 99 games at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, not only have the Kings played 4 straight Unders when playing with one day of rest but they have also seen the Under go 21-7-10 in their 38 situations where they were playing their fourth game in six days. And in their last 59 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall, the Under is 37-14-8. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina UNDER 153.5 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (813) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (814). Oregon (33-5) held Kansas to just 35% from the field en route to their 74-60 win last Saturday. The Ducks flexed their defensive muscles in that game by holding a potent Jayhawks offense that had averaged 96 PPG in their three previous Tournament games to scoring just those 60 points in 64 possessions. In the Ducks’ four tournament games, they have averaged 66 possessions so it is likely that head coach Dana Altman will look to slow this game down where both teams do not have more than 65 possessions apiece — and that makes the Under look rather appetizing with the Total set in the low 150s. Oregon has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. The Ducks have also played 12 of their last 14 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. And while the Tar Heels average 66 shots per game, Oregon has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game — and that includes 7 straight Unders when those games are the road. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (811). South Carolina (26-10) has pulled off three straight upsets in this NCAA Tournament — but expect for their bubble to burst tonight as they look more like the team that lost six of their last nine games before this Tournament started. These Gamecocks have covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of the last six games. Somehow this team is scoring at a crisp 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate which is well above their 1.00 PPP rate in SEC play. Frankly, even if this Gamecocks team was not a prime candidate to get a visit from the Regression Gods, this is just a terrible matchup for them. The Bulldogs out-rebound their opponents by +7.0 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games after fifteen games into the season against team who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Gonzaga also holds their opponents to just 60.9 PPG — but the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. And while the Bulldogs commit only 17 personal fouls per game, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of the last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. To make things worse, Gonzaga has worked on pressure defenses for a full two weeks given their Sweet Sixteen matchup with West Virginia and now a full week to digest that game tape while preparing for the Gamecocks’ pressure. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 98-107 | Push | 0 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Rockets (521) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (522). Houston (51-24) has lost two in a row after their 117-101 loss in Portland last night despite being a small 1-point favorite. The Rockets have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. Houston has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 15 games when playing without rest, the Rockets have covered the pint spread in 11 of these games. James Harden should be particularly motivated in this game after being outplayed be Steph Curry at home on Tuesday in their 113-106 loss to the Warriors. Houston has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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03-31-17 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (521) and the Golden State Warriors (522). Houston (51-24) looks to bounce-back from their 117-101 loss in Portland last night as a 1-point favorite. The Rockets have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This is a depleted team with Ryan Anderson out with an ankle and Nene resting which more pressure on James Harden who will play but is nursing a wrist injury. As it is, the Under is 7-1-1 in Houston’s last 9 games on the road. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, the Under is 5-0-1 for the Rockets. |
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03-31-17 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 PM on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (501) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (502). Denver (35-39) has lost two straight games after their heartbreaking 122-113 loss to Portland on Wednesday as a 2-point underdog. The Nuggets now find themselves 1 1/2 games behind the Trail Blazers (after Portland’s win last night over Houston) for the 8th and final spot in the Western Conference Playoffs — and they lost the tie-breaker having lost three of the four regular season games in that series. To compound matters, Denver will be playing six of their last eight regular season games on the road — so that makes winnable games away from the Pepsi Center essential contests to play well in. As it is, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. Denver has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss to a Northwest Division rivals. Furthermore, not only have the Nuggets covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games after a loss on the road but they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 road games after a point spread setback. Denver has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 ames on the road. And in their last 8 games against Eastern Conference opponents, the Nuggets have covered the point spread 6 times. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech v. TCU UNDER 134 | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). Georgia Tech (21-15) held Cal-State Bakersfield to just 35.0% on Tuesday en route to their 76-61 victory as 3.5-point favorites to put them in the Finals of the NIT. The Under is then 5-2-1 in the Yellow Jackets’ last 8 games after a point spread victory. Josh Pastner’s team is playing outstanding defense in this tournament after finishing 2nd in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But this Georgia Tech team can struggle to find baskets after finishing last in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This team shot just 43.3% from the field against the Roadrunners. Moving forward, the Yellow Jackets have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Georgia Tech has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. And in their last 26 games as an underdog getting less than 7 points, the Under is 19-6-1. |
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03-30-17 | Nets v. Pistons -6.5 | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (702) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (701). Detroit (34-41) is absolutely and positively desperate for a win having dropped five straight — as well as eight of their last nine games — after their 97-96 loss to Miami on Tuesday as a 3-point underdog. The Pistons had a 4-point lead in that game with 30.1 seconds left to go but let that squander before seeing their hearts break by a Hassan Whiteside buzzer-beater. Detroit now finds themselves 2 1/2 games out of the last spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt — but with nine games to go, there remains hope for Stan Van Gundy’s team. The team did player better defense against the Heat by holding them to just 45.6% shooting after seeing their previous three opponents convert at least 51.6% of their shots. And the Pistons have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played with one day of rest. Now comes just what the Doctor ordered in the atrocious Nets in to town. Yet Detroit will be playing with revenge after Brooklyn began their current losing streak with a buzzer beater of their own on March 21st to steal a 98-96 win. That game was in Brooklyn which began a four-game road trip for this young Pistons team that plays so much better on their home court where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 11 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, in their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range, the Pistons have covered the point spread 12 times. |
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03-29-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 208 | Top | 110-98 | Push | 0 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (515) and the San Antonio Spurs (516). Golden State (60-14) won their eighth straight game (all without Kevin Durant) with their 113-106 upset win at Houston as a 1.5-point underdog last night. The Warriors have then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Golden State has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, the Warriors have played 7 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents. And in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, Golden State has played all 4 games Under the Total. |
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03-29-17 | Furman v. St. Peter's -3 | Top | 51-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the St. Peter’s Peacocks (526) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (525). St. Peter’s (21-13) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 49-44 win at Texas State as a 1-point underdog. The Peacocks held the Bobcats to just 29.4% shooting — and their last five opponents have shot just 40.2% from the field. St. Peter’s has then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Tellingly, the Peacocks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. This team is a “Slow Killer” in that they play at a slow pace but generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers at a 20.9% range which is 41st best in the nation. The Paladins are vulnerable to turning the ball over as they rank 224th in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Not after playing their last two games on the road in this tournament, the Peacocks return home for this contest. St. Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by less than 7 points. |
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03-29-17 | Kings v. Flames -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money line on the Calgary Flames (4) versus the Los Angeles Kings (3). Calgary (43-29-2) looks to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Playoffs with a victory tonight. The Flames have won two straight — as well as four of their last six contests — with their 4-2 win over the Avalanche on Monday. First-year head coach Glen Gulutzan has seen his team win 11 of their last 13 games after a victory. His emphasis on puck possession and other advanced metrics has worked for his team this season after replacing old school Bob Hartley in the offseason. This team has been tough on home ice where they have won 20 of their last 28 games. The Flames have also won 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Calgary is getting great goaltending from Brian Elliott who has a .2.09 Goals-Against-Average along with a .925 save percentage when on home ice. The Flames have also won 25 of their last 34 games against teams with a losing record. |
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03-28-17 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (767) and the Atlanta Hawks (768). Phoenix (22-52) has dropped eight straight games with their 120-106 loss in Charlotte on Sunday as a 13-point underdog. The Suns are playing out the string out of the playoff hunt and decimated with injuries. Phoenix has lost both Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight to season-ending injuries — and now Leandro Barbosa is questionable with a hamstring injury tonight. The Suns shot 50.6% from the field in their defeat two days ago — but they look to be a prime suspect for a flat effort when considering this is their sixth straight game on the road. As it is, Phoenix has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Suns have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Phoenix has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (778) minus the points versus the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (777). Cal-State Bakersfield (25-9) has pulled off three straight upsets in this NIT to reach the Semifinals of this tournament in Madison Square Garden. Their last contest was an impressive 80-76 win at UT-Arlington last Wednesday where they were a 4-point underdog. But after playing on the road for the third straight game to pull off their third straight upset, we are expecting a significant emotional letdown as they travel across to the country to conclude this tournament in the Big Apple. This is quite an accomplishment for this Western Athletic Conference team. The Roadrunners have been on-fire with their 3-point shooting. After making 9 of their 21 shots from behind the arc in their win against Cal, they followed that up by making 11 of 19 shots from 3-point land against Colorado State and then made another 10 of 19 shots from behind the arc in their win against UT-Arlington. If the Roadrunners continue to make 50.8% of their shots from downtown, they will likely win this game. But expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance in Madison Square Garden tonight for this team that makes only 32.4% of their 3-point shots behind the arc. The Yellow Jackets allow their opponents to make just 33.3% of their 3-point shots. Their 3-point defense has been even better in the NIT. |
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03-27-17 | Wyoming v. Coastal Carolina +1.5 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (744) plus (or minus) the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (743). Coastal Carolina (19-17) hosts the first-game of this three-game series before Wyoming hosts the last two potential games of this series on their home court in Laramie. The Chanticleers reached the Finals of this Tournament with their 89-78 victory over Illinois-Chicago last Wednesday. Coastal Carolina did allow the Flames to shoot 50% from the field in that victory which was their worst defensive effort in their last sixteen games. Expect a much better performance on the defensive end of the court tonight as the Chanticleers hold their visitors to just 39.0% shooting. Coastal Carolina is 14-6 on their home court where they outscore their opponents by +7.8 PPG. The Chanticleers are an impressive 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games on their home court. Coastal Carolina is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 4 home games as an underdog, the Chanticleers are 3-0-1 ATS. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (724) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (723). North Carolina (30-7) got their offense on track on Friday with their 92-80 victory over Butler. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry III broke out of their scoring slump in this Tournament by combining to make 17 of their 30 shots from the field. Overall, the Tar Heels made 54.4% of their shots in this game. North Carolina has then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This showdown will be a rematch of a game these two played in Las Vegas back on December 17th which Kentucky won by a 103-100 score in a shootout. The Tar Heels only pulled down 29.4% of their missed shots in that game. This team led the nation by rebounding 42.1% of their missed shots this season — and that mark has increased to a 43% mark in the NCAA Tournament. Except UNC to control the boards in this rematch — and it is this skill that has helped Roy Williams team go 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games played on a neutral court. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (513) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (514). Gonzaga (35-1) held West Virginia to just 26.7% on Thursday in their 61-58 victory. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Gonzaga is playing outstanding defense in this tournament as their three opponents are shooting just 33.3% from the field while scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate. Most impressively, the Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 37% shooting inside the arc. Gonzaga needs their defense to continue to be outstanding when considering that they are shooting just 29% from behind the arc in this tournament. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral court, Gonzaga has played 6 of these games Under the Total. |