At 7:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (971) and the Philadelphia Phillies (972) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (95-76) evened this best-of-seven series with their 8-5 victory in Game Two of the National League Championship Series on Wednesday. Philadelphia (93-77) had won three-straight games before this loss.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Padres have won five of their last seven contests — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total on the road after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Bob Melvin turns to Musgrove tonight who had a 14-5 record in the regular season along with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in  30 starts. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.45 and 3.47 from his regular season numbers. And despite two great starts in the postseason, his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.27 and 3.63 moving forward. In his 19 2/3 career innings in the playoffs, he has a 3.66 ERA — and his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.83 moving forward. Even including his seven shutout innings on the road against the Mets on October 9th in the NL Wildcard Series, he still has a 3.86 ERA in his last seven starts on the road. The Padres have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Musgrove on the mound priced in the +/- 125 range. He allowed six earned runs in six innings in his lone start against the Phillies this season. Philadelphia pounds right-handed pitching at home. Since June 1st — and since September 1st — the Phillies rank 1st and 2nd in MLB in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at Citizens Bank Park against right-handed starting pitchers. They have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. They have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record. The Over is also 12-3-2 in their last 17 home games in the postseason. They counter with Suarez who had a 10-7 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 29 regular season starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.11 and 3.82 moving forward. He demonstrated nerves in his first playoff appearance on October 11th where he walked five batters in 3 1/3 innings before being pulled. He has not been as effective at home where he owns a 4.27 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .272 in 13 starts as opposed to his 3.20 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231 on the road. The Phillies have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with Suarez as their starting pitcher. He faces a Padres team that thrives against left-handed pitching. San Diego ranks 6th and 8th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created since the start of the season on the road against left-handed pitching — and they rank 5th in those metrics since September 1st.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 12-3-1 in the Padres’ last 16 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (971) and the Philadelphia Phillies (972) listing both starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Ranger Suarez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has lost four of their six games despite outgaining their opponents by +39.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Three of their four losses were decided by one-scoring possession. They outgained the Bengals last week by a 399 to 348 yardage margin in the loss. Turnovers have been a problem — with many of them coming from interceptions from Jameis Winston. The Saints’ special teams are a mess as well with them ranking 31st in the DVOA rankings of special teams units at Football Outsiders. But they play a Cardinals team that ranks just 29th in special teams. And while head coach Dennis Allen has not named a starting quarterback, reports indicate that he will likely tap Andy Dalton as his starter once again this week with Winston not 100% with a back and ankle injury that kept him limited in practice on this short week. Dalton has thrown only one interception in three games this season with a 1.2% interception rate for his 82 passes. That is what this Saints team needs right now — play smart, lean on their defense, and avoid mistakes. They are ravaged with injuries (but so are the Cardinals). Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. Winston would not have the skill players he would need to take advantage of his arm strength while perhaps needing to be savvier given the offensive line issues. Dalton is the better option on a short week — and he did work with the starting offense on Tuesday. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is going a nice job incorporating Taysom Hill as a weapon at quarterback or running back to throw off opposing defenses — something this Cardinals team will be susceptible to on a short week. The Saints are also without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play. Even better news: running back Alvin Kamara is heating up with 52 touches in the last two games. New Orleans ranks second in the league in Rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net YPG in their three road games — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. The injury list for the Cardinals is even worse than the Saints for this game on a short week. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. If Kingsbury follows through with his consideration of giving up play-calling duties, then I am not sure what is left for the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech before falling forward with this gig after getting sacked by his alma mater. The injuries on defense are also significant with linebacker Dennis Gardeck out and cornerback Trayvon Muller and safety Jalen Thompson questionable. The Cardinals rank 20th in Defensive DVOA — and they are allowing 28.0 PPG and 394.7 YPG in their three home games where they are getting outscored by -11.3 PPG. Arizona is winless in their three home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Arizona. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. After a 7-0 start last season, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 17 games with everything seeming to be moving in the wrong direction. In an expected close game, I find Dalton, Kamara, and the Saints' defense along with Dennis Allen as more reliable. 25* NFC Game of the Month with New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: Houston (110-56) has won six games in a row after their 4-2 victory against the Yankees in the opening game of the ALCS. New York (102-66) has lost three of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston was priced in the -155 range when I went to bed last night after writing the Reports for Thursday Night Football. The price has dropped since then with the Astros now priced under my -150 price threshold. Let’s attack. Houston has won 41 of their last 58 games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range — and they have won 41 of their last 56 games at home. They have won 44 of their last 64 games after a victory — and they have won 36 of their last 49 games after winning their last game by two runs or less. And while the Astros have played three straight Unders, they have then won 26 of their last 33 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Valdez gets the start after posting a 17-6 record in the regular season with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 31 starts. He set a Major League record with 25 Quality Starts in the regular season — so he will, at worst, keep Houston in the game before handing the ball over to the bullpen where the Astros have a distinct edge. The left-hander led MLB in ground-ball rate which will likely stymie this Yankees team that is too reliant on home runs. In his last seven starts at home including his start against Houston in the ALDS, he has a 2.64 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The Astros have won 18 of their last 23 games when Valdez is pitching as a money-line favorite priced from -100 to -150 including seven of those eight games this season. He faces a cold Yankees lineup that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .175 batting average, a .214 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .609 during that span. New York is hitting just .223 against left-handed pitchers with a .312 on-base percentage with an OPS of .703. They have lost 7 of their last 10 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. New York has now lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have lost 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 road games in the ALCS. I consider the Yankees’ bullpen to be a time bomb ready to explode. Aroldis Chapman has been ineffective which cost him his closer role — and after missing a mandatory team meeting, he is in the doghouse. Manager Aaron Boone has lost Michael King, Chad Green, and now Scott Effross to season-ending injuries. Clay Holmes has been outstanding for most of the season (outside an August slump) — but he just got a cortisone shot in his shoulder before the ALDS. Boone is relying heavily on him along with Jonathan Loaisiga (who struggled in the first half) and Wandy Peralta who is now being elevated to a role he did not have in the regular season. None of these three relievers have significant late-inning experience in the postseason. Severino gets the start with his 7-3 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 19 starts. He allowed three runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings on October 15th in Game Three of the ALDS against Cleveland. In his career 38 innings in the postseason, the right-hander has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP with 18 bases-on-balls. The Astros’ bullpen has a 0.77 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in these playoffs with only two runs allowed in 23 1/3 innings with 29 strikeouts and only six walks. They have one of the best closers in the game in Ryan Pressly — and manager Dusty Baker has two emergency blanket pitchers in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy coming from the starting rotation who can pitch multiple innings.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like these circumstances for the Yankees — going from two rainouts with Cleveland to no off day to start the ALCS on the road in Houston. I suspect that before they know what hit them, they are down 0-2 in this series to a team that has owned them. New York lost the 2015 Wildcard Game along with the playoff series in 2017 and 2019 to the Astros. They have lost 5 in a row at Minute Maid Park — and Houston has won 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. 25* MLB American League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Houston Astros (962) versus the New York Yankees (961) listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: I will be holding my nose taking this Denver team — but I suspect we will see an inspired effort from a desperate team who comes off the longest possible break in-between games save for the bye weeks. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing on Thursday in their last game. Denver did outgain the Colts by a 375 to 306 margin. Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment this season which was a surprise to me — but while I am skeptical of his long-term potential, he is still a savvy veteran who knows he needs to step it up. He claims some of his struggles are due to an arm injury — and he did get a shot in his right lat last week so perhaps he will have more zip again on his long ball. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Denver has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chargers gained 465 total yards against the Browns with 238 of those yards on the ground. But this team has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in their last two games while playing three straight Overs. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Overs. This team is dealing with several crushing injuries. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve hurting the defense that is allowing 28.5 PPG at home. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: Home teams at SoFi Stadium do not enjoy much of a home-field advantage — the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles is an unreliable favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Look for this divisional rivalry to be a close game. 25* AFC West Game of the Month is with the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Philadelphia team. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank them as the second-best team in the league behind Buffalo. They rank 5th in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA according to their metrics. They enjoy the best turnover ratio in the NFL by a mile — their 11 takeaways are the most in the league and their two giveaways are the fewest in the league. Their RPO-heavy offense catches most teams off-guard while exposing defensive rosters designed to stop pass-heavy offenses using three or more wide receivers. They lead the NFL by controlling the time of possession for 33:53 minutes per game. But they combine a ball-control offense with explosiveness — they lead the league with 44 “Big Plays” (a rushing gain of 12 or more yards or a passing gain of 16 or more yards). They are outscoring their opponents by +9.4 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +125.4 net Yards-Per-Game. I am anxious to see the Eagles play against teams that made deep playoff runs last year — but they host a division rival with a backup quarterback tonight. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by three points or less. They return home where they have outgained their opponents by +202.0 net YPG this year. Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Dallas only gained 239 total yards last week against the Rams — and they were outgained by -84 net yards in pulling off that upset victory. A +3 net turnover margin including a defensive touchdown played a big role in that win against the defending Super Bowl champions who are facing an existential crisis with the injuries on their offensive line. Dallas has been very fortunate with their schedule after looking hapless in their opening game at Tampa Bay where they only scored a field goal. They got Cincinnati the next week who was dealing with offensive line cohesion issues along with Joe Burrow still rusty after his appendectomy limited his preseason work — and the Bengals almost rallied to win in the second half. They then got the New York Giants, with all due respect to the job Brian Daboll is doing in his first year with that dysfunctional organization. That win was followed up with a game against Washington and Carson Wentz who melts under defensive pressure (and Dallas’ pass rush is elite). This will be the Cowboys’ third game on the road in the last four weeks — a stiff challenge particularly for backup quarterback Cooper Rush. While the faux quarterback controversy provides national headlines for owner Jerry Jones, remember that general manager Jones cut Rush in late August before reclaiming him a day later when the entire league passed on him. Rush has benefited from playing with a lead for almost his entire stint since Dak Prescott got injured. He will likely have to play from behind tonight. The Cowboys rank 29th in the league in third-down offense with Rush under center. To compound the matter, he split time this week in practice with Prescott who flirted with playing in this game. The Dallas defense has helped them play two straight Unders — but the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will have revenge on their mind against this Dallas team that toasted them 41-21 and then 51-26 in their two meetings last season. Admittedly, that 51-26 loss in Week 17 was against an Eagles team resting key starters with their wildcard game already set. Still, surrendering 92 points and losing by 45 combined points has certainly been a strong point of emphasis all offseason. If Philly wants to make a deep playoff run, then taking care of the Cowboys is high on their agenda. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Guardians (918) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (917). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (96-71) has won six of their last seven games after their come-from-behind 6-5 win against the Yankees last night. New York (100-65) trails 2-1 in this best-of-five series tonight and must win to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GUARDIANS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: As Philadelphia and San Diego have demonstrated in this round of the playoffs, full-season records mean nothing in these short series. Starting pitching, the bullpen, and momentum — these intangibles all take on heightened importance. That said, Cleveland has been as good as any team in MLB with a 28-7 record since September 5th. They have won 20 of their last 27 games after winning their last game — and they have won 20 of their last 30 games after a victory by only one run. They have also won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing five or more runs in their last game. They stay at home for Game Four where they have won 16 of their last 21 games — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games in the ALDS. Manager Terry Francona turns to Quantrill who has a 15-5 record this season with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 32 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in 19 starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a .282 opponent’s batting average when on the road. Cleveland has won 16 of their last 21 games with Quantrill on the hill in the second half of the season — and they have won 15 of their last 20 games at home with Quantrill their starting pitcher. Additionally, the Guardians have pulled off 9 upsets in their last 12 games with Quantrill pitching as a money-line underdog. He faces a reeling Yankees team that has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Quantrill will also be supported by perhaps the best bullpen in baseball with several outstanding pitchers. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.75 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP at home this year — and in their last seven games, their bullpen has a 0.63 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. New York has lost four of their last five games including the last two games in this series. They have lost 12 of their last 18 games after losing four of their last five games. Additionally, they have lost 17 of their last 22 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 4 in a row in the playoffs on the road. They counter with Cole who has a 13-8 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 33 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he enjoys a 3.20 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 16 starts — but in his 17 starts on the road, those numbers rise to a 3.81 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 17 starts. Of concern for Cole has a 4.02 ERA since the All-Star Break — and he has allowed four earned runs in three of his last five starts. He faces a Guardians group that has won 6 of their last 7 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: The Yankees have lost 20 of their last 32 games when attempting to avenge a one-run loss. These team trends do not take into account the +1.5 Run-Line I am recommending for this play. I’m fine with anyone opting to take Cleveland with the money-line — but I always invest in the insurance offered by the +1.5 Run-Line if the price is no higher than -150. While two of the Guardians’ last seven losses have been by one run, four of the last twelve Yankees’ victories have been by only one run. Additionally, in New York’s last 38 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have only covered the -1.5 Run-Line 16 times with 17 straight-up losses and 5 one-run wins where they failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB Divisional Series Run-Line of the Year with the Cleveland Guardians (918) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (917). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-2) looks to rebound from a 27-22 upset loss to the New York Giants as an 8.5-point favorite in London last Sunday. New York (3-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with a 40-17 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay controlled most of their game with the Giants — they held a 20-10 lead at halftime — but sleepwalked through the second half overconfident that they would always find a way to pull the game out against Daniel Jones. But Aaron Rodgers audibled out of likely successful running plays at the goal line to telegraph his little slant throw that everyone knows he likes — and the Giants’ defense successfully batted the last pass down to steal the game. Players called out Rodgers afterward — and maybe what this team needs is some internal tension to raise the level of urgency. As it is, Rodgers has led the Packers to nine straight wins after losing their last game with the average winning margin being by more than 14 points — and he has nine touchdown passes without an interception in those nine games. Green Bay has been resilient when facing (regular season) adversity — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Returning home to Lambeau Field will make a big difference where Green Bay has a 24-3 record since the beginning of the 2019 season. Rodgers’ personal record as the starter at Lambeau is 23-1 in his last 24 with 15 straight wins. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York has pulled off two straight upset wins after stunning Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago. We had the Steelers in that game — Mitch Trubisky gets benched at halftime for Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh run defense collapsed late in that game when the Jets seemed satisfied to just burn time and kick a field goal to force overtime. The fortunate breaks continued last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting injured for the Dolphins in his first series of the game leaving Miami to have to play 7th-round draft pick, Skylar Thompson, at quarterback after not practicing with the first-team offense all week. But remember that it was still a 19-17 game five minutes into the fourth quarter before mistakes by Thompson contributed to the Jets scoring three late touchdowns to produce a final score that was not indicative of how close the game was. New York has skated by facing some of the least threatening quarterbacks in the league: Jacoby Brissett, Trubisky/Pickett, Bridgewater/Thompson. In their two games against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Jets’ defense has surrendered six touchdown passes with only one interception. The Jets should get exposed in this one. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win by three or more touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Having had action against the Jets the last two weeks, I have seen some of the sketchy plays that second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has made that do not translate into the box score. He benefited from facing an injury-depleted Dolphins secondary — but the assignment is much tougher against this angry Packers defense. New York is still banged up at tackle having to rely on fourth and fifth stringers. Wilson has a 3-6 record in his nine career starts on the road. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams wit ha winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Execution should lead to the Packers pulling away in this one. The Jets rank 28th in 3rd Down Defense even with that rogue's gallery of quarterbacks they have played in three of their games — and here comes Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder after last week. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to converting just 3 of 23 third downs of seven or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This is a “relax” game for Rodgers against this Jets’ team playing over their head. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (170) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (169). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 42-32 upset loss at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (6-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 30-14 win against Washington State as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Ken Whittingham certainly had an attentive group of players this week after the upset loss to the Bruins where they surrendered 502 total yards. Whittingham claimed his team got out-toughed by UCLA — so expect a bruising response by this team against the Trojans.

At 2:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (102-63) looks to force a decisive fifth game in this best-of-five National League Divisional Series after their 9-1 loss on the road against the Phillies yesterday. Philadelphia (91-76) can advance to the NL Championship Series with a victory today.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by eight or more runs against an NL East rival. Atlanta has also played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last game including four of these last five circumstances. And while the Braves have not hit a home run in their last two games, they have then played 7 straight Overs after not hitting a home run in two straight games. Additionally, the Over is 19-5-2 in their last 26 games on the road — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on the road with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They have also played 19 of their last 29 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They give the ball to Morton who has a 9-6 record with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 31 starts. The right-hander has been most effective at home where he owns a 3.05 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 16 starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.72 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .261 in 15 starts on the road. Atlanta has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Morton on the mound priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. The veteran has faded in the second half of the season with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in his last six starts. The Braves have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when Morton is tasked to end a team losing streak. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 1st and 2nd in MLB since both July 1st and September 1st in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. Philadelphia has played 4 straight Overs at home against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset victory as a home underdog — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a win by four or more runs. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Phillies have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range — and the Over is 11-3-2 in their last 16 home games in the playoffs. They counter with Syndergaard who has a 10-10 record with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 25 games (23 starts). The sabermetrics call for regression with Syndergaard’s SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.39 and 4.29 moving forward. Thor has been clobbered in his two daytime starts this year with a 7.20 ERA, a 1.80 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .364. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Braves have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when avenging a loss to their opponent where they did not score more than one run. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Philadelphia. 25* MLB National League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (901) and the Philadelphia Phillies (902) listing both starting pitchers Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (187) and the Texas Longhorns (188). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 10-9 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Texas (4-2) comes off a 49-0 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones’ offense has stalled by averaging only 15 Points-Per-Game in their three-game losing streak — and they have scored only 20 combined points in their last two contests. They have become one-dimensional due to a struggling rushing attack as they have averaged just 56 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their losing streak while generating only 2.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points. They are scoring just 23.2 PPG — and now they go on the road where they are scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging only 318.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Under is 19-8-1 in their last 28 games on the road. The Cyclones’ defense is keeping them competitive — head coach Matt Campbell’s team is holding their opponents to 13.7 PPG and 277.8 total YPG. They have held five or six opponents to no more than 14 points. Iowa State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. Texas has held five of their six opponents to 20 or points or less. They rank 9th in the nation in opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed — so they should continue to force the Cyclones into being too reliant on their passing attack to move the ball. Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team got Quinn Ewers back at quarterback last week against the Sooners — and he completed 21 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdown passes while leading the Longhorns to 585 total yards. But Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards. Additionally, they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders in October.

FINAL TAKE: After Texas’ 30-7 win in Ames against the Cyclones last season, these two teams have played 7 straight Unders. These two teams have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Austin. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (187) and the Texas Longhorns (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (112-52) has lost four of their last six games after their 5-3 loss at home to the Padres on Wednesday. San Diego (92-75) evened this best-of-five series at 1-1 with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers have rebounded to win 50 of their last 70 games. They have also won 50 of their last 72 games after an off day. They now go on the road for the next two games where they have won 40 of their last 58 games — and they have won 21 of their last 26 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 4 of their last 5 games on the road against teams with a winning record. Gonsolin gets the start with a 16-1 record along with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP in 24 starts. He has pitched only two innings since August 23rd after dealing with a right forearm strain — and he will be limited to a 75-pitch count. Manager Dave Roberts is calling his number given his great regular season along with a 2-0 record along with a 0.71 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP in two starts with 14 strikeouts and only one walk. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 12 games with Gonsolin on the mound after a loss. They have also won 9 of their last 12 games on the road with Gonsolin on the mound — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games with Gonsolin pitching with the Total set from 7-8.5. The Dodgers bullpen has a 2.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP on the road this year — and Roberts will also have starting pitchers like Andrew Heaney at his disposal. Los Angeles has won 29 of their last 39 games when priced no higher than -150. The Padres have underachieved with their bats all season -- even after picking up Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. They rank 25th and 20th in MLB since September 1st in weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a victory — and they have 4 of their last 5 games coming off an upset victory priced at +130 or higher against an NL West rival. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They return home to Petco Park where they are only scoring 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .230 batting average, a .301 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .665. The Padres have lost 21 of their last 32 home games as an underdog — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games at home in the postseason. Furthermore, they have lost 10 of their last 12 games in the NLDS — and they have lost 4 straight home games in the NLDS. They counter with Snell who has an 8-10 record along with a 1.20 WHIP in 34 starts this season. The left-hander has not been quite as effective at home where he owns a 3.56 ERA and a .227 opponent’s batting average in 15 starts as compared to his 3.06 ERA and .198 opponent’s batting average in 19 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 10 of their last 15 home games with Snell their starting pitcher. In his three starts against Los Angeles this season, Snell has an 0-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. The Padres have lost 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog with Snell on the mound.     

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers own San Diego with 41 victories in their last 58 games against them — and they have 4 of their last games against them at Petco Park. 25* MLB NL West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (963) versus the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Blake Snell. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (105) and the Chicago Bears (106). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-4) lost for the fourth straight time on Sunday in a 21-17 loss at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog. Chicago (2-3) has lost two in a row after a 29-22 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We are confronted with another low Total below 40 — but when it looks hard to just not take the Over, that is when we need to swallow hard and give the Under strong consideration. These are two of the worst offenses in the league playing on a short week. It would not be a surprise if at least one of these teams struggles to reach 14 points. The Total suggests this game is a race to 20 points — and both coaches will likely embrace the concept, making a lower-scoring game a self-fulfilling prophecy. Washington scores 18.0 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 30th in offense according to the DVOA metric at Football Outsiders. They have only scored 35 combined points in their last three games behind a mediocre offensive line that is now decimated by injuries. Three original starters, center Chase Roullier, right guard Wes Schweitzer, and right tackle Sam Cosmi, are all out for this game. The Commanders rank 28th in the NFL by averaging just 89 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 30th by giving up 20 sacks to Carson Wentz already this season. Wentz will be without two important targets in the passing game with both rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas declared out for this game. As it is, the Commanders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. And while Washington managed to gain 385 yards last week against the Titans, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Commanders have played three straight Unders while not scoring more than 17 points in any of those three games. They have then played 6 straight Unders after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 8 straight Unders after losing three in a row. And while Washington has not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago is scoring only 17.2 PPG this season while averaging just 274.0 total YPG which is second-to-last in the NFL — and they rank 29th in Offensive DVOA. They managed only 271 yards last week against the Vikings. The Bears have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Vikings generated 429 yards against them last week — but they have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while that game finished above the 43.5-point total, they have played 10 go their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. They return home where they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chicago defense has been tough at home as they have held their first two opponents to only 15.0 PPG and 330.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in October — and the Commanders have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Expect plenty of punts and Red Zone failures — and both coaches will play conservatively. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (105) and the Chicago Bears (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (933) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (934) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: San Diego (91-75) lost the opening game of the NL Divisional Series in a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers. Los Angeles (112-51) looks to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Despite the loss yesterday, the Padres are finally starting to score runs to meet the potential of their offense after trading for Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. San Diego ranks 6th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed pitchers — but they only rank 23rd in MLB in weighted Runs Created on the road against lefties for the season. But the Regression Gods may have already paid a visit to this team -- since September with them scoring more of these runners they are getting on base. Since September 1st, the Padres rank 5th on the road against left-handed pitching in weighted on-base percentage — and they also rank 5th on the road against left-handed starting pitching in weighted Runs Created during that span. The Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games Over the Total with the Total set no higher than 7. Additionally, San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in October — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the postseason. And while the Dodgers score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game, the Padres have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who score 5.0 or more Runs-Per-Game. Darvish gets the start with his 16-8 record along with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. He does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.60 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .188 — but those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in his 17 starts on the road. San Diego has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Darvish on the mound with the Total set no higher than 7. Darvish also has a career 4.50 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP in eight playoff starts. He faces a Dodgers team that struggled with their bats since September with their huge lead over their National League competition. But Los Angeles still led MLB in both weighed on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers in the regular season — and they ranked 3rd and 1st in those metrics since July 1st. The Over is 7-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games in the playoffs. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the number set at 7 or less. They counter with Kershaw who has a 12-3 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in 22 starts. The veteran southpaw has not been quite as filthy at home this season where he has a 2.39 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a .221 opponent’s batting average in 11 starts as opposed to his 2.17 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .191 on the road. Kershaw was effective in the 2020 postseason — but he remains a future Hall of Fame whose playoff performances have been the lone blemish on his resume. He has a career record of 12-12 in the postseason with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Kershaw pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -175 to -250.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Dodgers Stadium. With the Total set just at 7, expect at least one of these pitchers to struggle against these potent lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (933) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (934) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (111-51) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 6-1 win against Colorado to close out their regular season. San Diego (91-74) advanced to the National League Divisional Series with their 6-0 win at New York against the Mets on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 14 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also won 40 of their last 52 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They host the first two games of this best-of-five series at Dodger Stadium where they have won 41 of their last 52 games — and they have won 9 of their last 12 home games in the NLDS. Furthermore, this dominant team has won 69 of their last 101 games against teams with a winning record. Manager Dave Roberts gives the ball to Urias who has a 17-7 record with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 31 starts. The left-hander has been very tough when pitching at home where he has a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .183 in 14 starts as compared to his 1.02 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 on the road. In his 13 starts since the All-Star Break, Urias has a 1.29 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179. The Dodgers have won 29 of their last 34 games with Urias on the mound in the second half of the season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. The Padres have also lost 4 straight games in the NLDS — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road in the NLDS. They counter with Clevinger who has a 7-7 record with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 23 games (22 starts). The right-hander has been effective when pitching at home at the spacious Petco Park with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in nine starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.46 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 on the road. The Padres have lost 4 straight games when Clevinger is their starting pitcher when priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 71 games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 117 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 37 of those games — and in their 80 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 67 times. San Diego has only been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 11 times this season. While they have pulled five upsets, under those circumstances, all six of their losses have been by more than one run. Lastly, the Dodgers have owned the Padres this season with 14 victories in 19 games — and they covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 13 of those wins. 25* MLB NL West Run-Line of the Year with the Los Angeles Dodgers (924) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (923) listing both starting pitchers Julio Urias and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (479) and the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 32-23 win against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (3-1) comes off a 41-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs demonstrated that their offense will continue to roll even without Tyreek Hill by overwhelming an outstanding Buccaneers last week. Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job in distributing the football to open receivers — and head coach Andy Reid is willing to dial up the running game against defenses that playing the in-vogue two high safety shell schemes to take away big plays in the passing game. Kansas City ran for 189 yards against the stout Tampa Bay run defense while generating 417 total yards. The Chiefs have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games while scoring 41 or more points twice. They are second in the NFL by averaging 32.3 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Tampa Bay ran the ball for only three yards last week, Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after outrushing their previous opponent by 75 or more yards. The Buccaneers fell behind early and abandoned the running game completely (which played a big role in ruining our Under in that game). A similar game script will likely take place tonight. The Raiders will struggle to run the ball against the Chiefs' defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 66 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, that number is lower because opponents abandon the ground game — but their opponents are averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank third in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. But teams can pass on the Chiefs' defense that replaced three starting defensive backs in the offseason including Tyrann Mathieu. Kansas City is giving up 264 passing YPG with opposing quarterbacks completing 70.4% of the passes against them. The Chiefs' pass defense ranks 20th in the league DVOA. The Bucs averaged a healthy 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them last week while converting touchdowns on all three of their trips inside the Red Zone. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The 23 points that Las Vegas gave up to the Broncos were the fewest points they have allowed this season. They have played two straight Overs — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Raiders have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing three of four contests. Two of their games have seen at least 52 combined points — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Las Vegas defense is allowing 25.0 PPG and 357.0 total YPG. They did hold Denver to just 299 total yards — but the Broncos only had 45 offensive plays in the game. They allowed Denver to average 6.64 YPP a week after allowing Tennessee to average 6.69 YPP the previous week. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to generate at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Over is 8-3-1 in Las Vegas’ last 12 games in October. The Raiders have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has averaged 36 PPG in their last nine games against the Raiders with Mahomes under center. These two teams have played their last four games Over the Total with the Chiefs scoring 48 and 41 points in both games last year. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (479) and the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) won their second-straight game with their 27-15 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Baltimore (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-20 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals have addressed the sack issues that plagued them in their opening two games. After getting sacked an unsustainable 13 times in their first two games, Joe Burrow has only been sacked three times in his last two games for just 20 yards. Cincinnati invested heavily to upgrade their offensive line in the offseason by bringing in center Ted Karras from New England, right guard Alex Cappa from Tampa Bay, and right tackle La’El Collins from Dallas. It may have taken some time after not enough work in the preseason for this group to start developing cohesion. But the other factor was that Burrow was simply holding on to the ball too long looking for his dynamic win receivers to get open. He has done a better job over the last two games in getting the ball out faster. Don’t underestimate the impact of Burrow’s appendectomy in August in slowing down his getting up to speed. But now over his last three games, Burrow has six touchdown passes and no interceptions while posting a 107 Passer Rating. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 287 yards last week — and Cincy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Now Burrow plays a limping Ravens’ pass defense that he torched for over 900 passing yards against in his two games against them last year. Baltimore is last in the NFL this season by surrendering 315 Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They gained 371 yards against the Dolphins last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals did give up 378 yards to Miami in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in their last contest. Despite that yardage allowed, Cincinnati has been impressive on defense this season. They rank 8th in the league by holding their opponents to just 327.5 total Yards-Per-Game — and the five touchdowns they have conceded is the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 86 rushing YPG — and they are 4th in the league in 3rd Down defense. They are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Baltimore only gained 295 total yards last week in a showdown with the Bills that many observers expected to be a scoring fest. The Ravens miss Marquise Brown at wide receiver who now plays for Arizona — he accounted for 91 receptions and 1008 yards last year. Rashod Bateman drops too many passes and has not been able to emerge as a legitimate number-one option. The passing attack now runs almost exclusively through tight end Mark Andrews — but the lack of threatening options on the outside is one of the reasons why the Ravens are averaging only 217 passing YPG. Baltimore has lost five straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens are also 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 games in October. As seemingly always, injuries have hit this team hard. Baltimore has a long list of players out impacting their depth — and starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and Bateman are out for tonight’s game. On defense, defensive tackle Michael Pierce is out and cornerback Marcus Peters is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals scored 41 points in both their victories against the Ravens last year. While Baltimore has been planning for revenge all off-season, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North rivals. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Baltimore against the Ravens. In Burrow, I Trust -- he should keep this game close (even if he does not lead his team to victory). 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: New York (102-62) forced a decisive final game in this best-of-three Wildcard Playoff series with their 7-3 victory against the Padres yesterday. San Diego (90-74) has lost two of three and five of their last nine games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Mets have won 44 of their last 64 games at home at Citi Field — and they have won 12 of their last 16 games at home against teams with a winning record. They turn to Bassitt tonight to keep their season alive. The right-hander has a 15-9 record this year with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 30 starts. Bassitt has been more effective at home where he sports a 2.95 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .227 in 16 starts as opposed to his 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 on the road. In his 13 starts since the All-Star Break, Bassitt sports a 2.94 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. The Padres have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. They counter with Musgrove who has a 10-7 record with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts. The right-hander does his best pitching at home where he owns a 2.86 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 16 starts as compared to his 3.01 ERA and .229 opponent’s batting average of .229. Since the All-Star Break, Musgrove’s numbers have declined with an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.23 along with an opponent’s batting average of .254. His teams have lost 18 of their last 26 games when Musgrove is their starting pitcher priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets have won 18 of their last 25 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 38 of their last 53 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the New York Mets (902) versus the San Diego Padres (901) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-20 loss at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Kent State (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win in overtime against Ohio as a 13-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) outgained the Bulls last week by a 359 to 278 yardage margin but could not pull out the game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The team is dealing with the likely season-ending injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert last month, but they are getting solid play from Aveon Smith under center. He completed 14 of 26 for 119 yards last week — but his biggest contributions were with his legs as he scored two touchdowns and rushed for 142 yards on twelve carries. Miami (OH) returns home to play just their second game in front of their home fans all season. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Kent State comes off a huge offensive performance where they gained 736 total yards. Quarterback Collin Schlee completed 24 of 37 passes for 398 yards in the victory last week — but the Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 passing yards in their last game. And while they gained 7.67 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Kent State has won both their games at home — but they are winless in their three games on the road while getting outscored by -24.0 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes are scoring only 15.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 305.7 YPG. They have allowed their three home hosts to generate 495.0 total YPG. Granted, playing at Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia is a brutal non-conference schedule — but Kent State’s season stats are propped by a 63-10 win at home against Long Island. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) will be motivated to avenge a 48-47 loss at Kent State last year in a pick ‘em contest. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the RedHawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at Miami (OH). 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Mets (940) versus the San Diego Padres (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: New York (101-61) ended the season on a three-game winning streak after their 9-2 victory against Washington on Wednesday. San Diego (89-73) comes off an 8-1 loss to San Francisco on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has won 20 of their last 27 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. They host this best-of-three series at Citi Field where they have won 43 of their last 62 games at home — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home against winning teams. Additionally, they have won 20 of their last 29 games when priced as a -100 to -150 money-line favorite. The oddsmakers have installed the over/under at a rare 6 for this game, the Mets have won 33 of their last 45 games when the Total is set at 6.5 or lower. Scherzer gets the ball for manager Buck Showalter. The right-hander has an 11-5 record with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 23 starts. He has been very tough when pitching at home where he owns a 1.67 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .200 in ten starts. The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 games at home with Scherzer on the mound when priced up to -150 as the favorite. He faces a underachieving Padres’ lineup that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games. On the road against right-handed starting pitchers since September 1st, San Diego ranks a middling 12th and 14th in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 10 of their last 13 playoff games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. They have also lost 38 of their last 54 road games with the Total set at 6.5 or less. They counter with Darvish who has a 16-8 record with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 30 starts. And while the right-hander has a 2.60 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a .188 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home, those numbers rise to a 3.50 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a .222 opponent’s batting average on the road. San Diego has lost 13 of their last 19 road games with Darvish their starting pitcher as an underdog priced up to +150. In seven career postseason starts, he has a 2-5 record with a 5.18 ERA.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets rank 7th in MLB since September 1st in both weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. New York has won 38 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB American League Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Mets (940) versus the San Diego Padres (939) listing both starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Denver Broncos (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-2-1) looks to rebound from their 24-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 32-23 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Colts' defense for the upset loss to the Titans — they held their AFC South Rivals to just 243 total yards. It was a -3 net turnover margin that did Indianapolis in for that game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Indianapolis is holding their opponents to just 297.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 24 points in any of their four games — and they are allowing just 21.3 Points-Per-Game. But the struggling Colts offense has not scored more than 20 points in any of their games this year — they are scoring 14.3 PPG and generating just 339.8 total YPG. Things will not get any easier for the Indy offense on a short week with running back Jonathan Taylor declared out for this game with an ankle injury. The Colts have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss to an AFC South rival as a home favorite. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Denver had only allowed 36 combined points in their first three games before a desperate Raiders team generated 385 yards and 32 points against them last week. But the Broncos have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they allowed at least 30 points — and the Under is a decisive 37-18-1 in their last 56 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Las Vegas rushed for 212 yards in that game, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Denver defense is still allowing only 17.0 PPG along with 284.0 total YPG. But the offense has yet to gel with Russell Wilson under center as they have scored not more than 16 points in three of their four games — they are only generating 16.5 PPG and 335.8 total YPG. To compound matters moving forward, Denver lost their top running Javonte Williams to a torn ACL last week that will keep him out the season. The Broncos' offensive line is banged up with starting guard Quinn Meinerz out with a hamstring and starting right tackle Billy Turner questionable with a knee injury.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 8 straight Unders against AFC opponents — and the Under is 35-17-1 in Denver’s last 52 games against fellow AFC opponents. While this is another low total, it would not be terribly surprising if at least one of these teams struggles to score 14 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Denver Broncos (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-2) looks to bounce back from an 11-10 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (2-1) has won two in a row after their 20-12 win at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: San Francisco was held back last week by a -3 net turnover margin on the road against the Broncos. Another full week of practice should help Jimmy Garoppolo get back up to speed with the offense after not even working with his teammates in the preseason after Trey Lance was given the starting quarterback job. He was solid last week by completing 18 of 29 passes for 211 yards with a touchdown and an interception — but some areas could be cleaned up. The 49ers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at Levi’s Stadium. Despite their losing record, San Francisco remains a very good team on both sides of the ball. They lead the NFL with only two three-and-out drives all season. On defense, they are the only team in the league to be holding their opponents to under 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. The Rams did allow the Cardinals to gain 365 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they averaged 7.5 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 6.5 YPP in their last contest. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been sloppy to start the season — they have seven giveaways in their three games. Matthew Stafford has been the main culprit with five interceptions already — and this comes off a year where he threw 17 interceptions which were tied for the most in the NFL (and remember he had four pick-sixes last year). The injuries are mounting up for the Rams as well. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen in left guard David Edwards and center Brian Allen — and this group had already taken a big step back with the retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. The defense is down several defensive backs including starting cornerback Troy Hill. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but they will be motivated to avenge their 20-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at San Francisco. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) looks to rebound from their 20-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-1) comes off a 14-12 upset loss to Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After Arizona inexplicably opted to play a single-high safety while blitzing Patrick Mahomes in Week One, we have seen how the Chiefs’ offense will operate without Tyreke Hill when facing defenses that play two-safeties to take away the big plays of Patrick Mahomes with his set of weapons that now is without the speedster Hill. Why are defensive coordinators still opting to blitz quarterbacks like Mahomes who punish these tactics by getting the ball out to play-makers quickly against a now undermanned secondary? He completed 30 of 39 passes for 360 yards against the Cardinals. Things then changed when facing the Brandon Staley-coached Chargers that are willing to kill explosive quarterbacks like Mahomes by a thousand cuts by daring him to settle for shorter plays and longer drives. KC gained only 319 yards in their 27-24 victory which turned on a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown by the Chiefs’ defense. Against the Colts last week, Kansas City only gained 305 total yards while only being on the field for 26:28 minutes. In his last two games, Mahomes has completed only 44 of 71 passes for 483 yards. Now the Chiefs face Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers’ elite defense that held him to completing 26 of 43 passes for 243 yards in the Super Bowl two years ago when they only scored nine points in that 22-point loss. Kansas City has certainly improved their offensive line since then, but the elite secondary of Tampa Bay will still take away big plays against a Chiefs’ set of targets that is now without Hill. As it is, Kansas City has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after getting upset on the road as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to 21.7 Points-Per-Game along with 314.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They have held their last two opponents to 75 and 82 rushing yards — and they have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But the Chiefs have not rushed for more than 98 yards in two straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Tampa Bay is getting healthy again at wide receiver with Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage all expected to join Mike Evans on the field after he was suspended for last week’s game. But those injured players have not practiced this week so the passing game may not be in synch quite yet for Tom Brady. The Buccaneers have not scored more than 20 points this season — they are scoring just 17.0 PPG while averaging 297.3 total YPG. They have played 7 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Tampa Bay defense may be the best unit in the NFL. They held Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense to only 315 yards. They are giving up only 9.0 PPG along with 289.0 total YPG. But the issue for the Bucs is their beat-up offensive line. After the surprise retirement of All-Pro left guard Ali Marpet, the line is without Ryan Jensen, Aaron Stinnie, and Josh Wells — and Donovan Smith was limited in practice this week. They are using rookie Luke Goedeke at left tackle and the depth is razor thin. Tampa Bay cannot get their rushing game going as they have only gained 106 yards on the ground in the last two weeks after getting a mere 36 rushing yards last week. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay is averaging only 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams not generating more than 3.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total in expected close games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Don’t be surprised if both teams try to control the clock — that is the Tampa Bay formula to keep Mahomes off the field and the Buccaneers will dare the Chiefs to run against their elite run defense. Long drives are a great recipe to cash under tickets. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-17 loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday, September 22nd. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from their 27-12 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS:                                    Pittsburgh was only on the field for 23:51 minutes last week against the Browns for that Thursday Night Football game — and that game was closer than the final score indicated with Cleveland scoring a final touchdown on a fumble recovery that they scooped into the end zone. The Steelers actually had a 14-13 lead at halftime. Now after pulling off their Week One upset at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh needs this game to even their record at 2-2. With the extra days off from last week to rest and prepare for this contest, expect a spirited effort from head coach Mike Tomlin’s group. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a fellow AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Mitchell Trubisky completed 20 of 32 passes for 207 yards in the loss with no interceptions. What was encouraging for Pittsburgh in this game is that he threw the ball downfield a bit more. While I am expecting Trubisky to embark on a Hall of Fame career anytime soon, this is a quarterback with a career 30-23 record as a starter. Frankly, I worry more about offensive coordinator Matt Canada — the Steelers need to get their talented receiving corps more involved in the game and trust Trubisky (something Tomlin called on after their loss to New England in Week Two). Now after that short week, I expect a better offensive plan — and I also expect Pittsburgh to lean into deploying Trubisky’s mobility. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October under Tomlin. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home at the newly renamed Acrisure Stadium. The Jets get second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back under center after he was out for about six weeks with the knee he injured early in the preseason. In the short-term, New York is swallowing a downgrade at quarterback going from the veteran Joe Flacco to Wilson — especially since the former BYU quarterback has been not practicing after not playing in the preseason. This situation is compounded by the decimation this team has already faced with injuries on their offensive line. The Jets are already on their fifth and sixth-string offensive tackles (in a league where depth at tackle is already lacking — for the good teams). Wilson was raw last year after not playing in a pro-style offense in college. His 69.7 Passer Rating was the worst in the NFL. He played better late in the season — but he needed the preseason to continue his development. He still has issues with his mechanics, footwork, decision-making, accuracy, handling the pass-rush, and his decision-making. Did I forget anything? I understand why the Jets are putting him out there even with their significant issues at offensive line, they need to give him time to grow — but if they wanted to win games in the short-term, the veteran Flacco would be out there, even with his limitations in his 15th season. Are the Jets going to ask Wilson to throw the ball 52 times as they did with Flacco last week? That is a recipe for a disaster — the kid is going to make mistakes. Wilson was 3-10 as a starter last year with only nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. He was sacked 44 times behind a better offensive line — he got sacked every 9.7 pass attempts. New York has thrown the ball at least 45 times in each of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight contests. The Jets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE:  The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at Pittsburgh. New York continues their rebuild after 11 straight seasons not making the playoffs versus a Steelers team that has not had a losing season under Tomlin. Maybe Wilson improves this season — but on the road with that offensive line after missing most of the preseason, it is going to be bumpy. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-2) comes off a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (3-0) remained undefeated this season after their 21-19 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS: Miami comes off the emotional high of beating the Bills just four days ago — and they are ripe for a letdown for this game on the road being played on a short week. It’s rookie head coach Mike McDaniel’s first game preparing his team to play on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Even more challenging is that the defense was on the field for a whopping 90 plays in the Miami heat. If the Dolphins were playing on Sunday, then the defensive players would probably not even be practicing on Thursday — but now they are playing another game on this quick turnaround. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after upsetting a fellow AFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after upsetting a division rival as a home underdog. With the Dolphins' offense only on the field for 19:20 minutes of that game, they got outgained by the Bills by a 497 to 212 yardage margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Despite their 3-0 record, Miami is only generating 355.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have only gained more than 307 yards in one of their games. They are surrendering a whopping 413.7 total YPG — more than 76 YPG than they did last season when they ranked 15th in the NFL. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 400 YPG in their last three games including failing to cover the point spread just once in the last five circumstances when those conditions applied. Tua Tagovailoa has played great in the McDaniel offense getting the ball out to his playmakers — but he is far from 100% for this game dealing with a back and ankle injury. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati was flat against Pittsburgh in their opening game before falling behind at halftime against Dallas by a 17-3 score in their second game. But in their last six quarters, they have looked like the team that reached the Super Bowl by outscoring their opponents by a 41-15 margin. They should build off their momentum from their victory last week as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while their game with the Jets finished Under the 45.5 point Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing an Under in their last game. Despite Joe Burrow not playing in the preseason as he recovered from his appendectomy and despite the continuing problem with sacks with Burrow getting mauled for 13 sacks in the first two games of the season, this team would still be 3-0 if not losing both of their first two games on the final play of the game. Burrow only took two sacks last week — and he has four touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. He completed 23 of 36 passes last week for 275 yards — and Cincy has covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Bengals are outscoring and outgaining their opponents this year — and their defense has played well by allowing just 18.3 PPG and 310.7 total YPG. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. They enjoy a significant situational edge against a Dolphins team coming off an emotional high but likely to be gassed by the second half tonight. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (80-74) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-9 loss on the road against the Red Sox in the second game of this series. Boston (73-81) snapped their six-game losing streak with last night’s win.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have allowed at least six runs in four straight games — and they have scored at least six runs in four of their last five contests. The first two games of this series have both seen 22 combined runs after Baltimore won Game One by a 14-8 score. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in two straight games. And in their last 7 games after playing two straight games where at least 15 combined runs were scored, they have then played 6 of those games Over the Total. They have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against division opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Kremer gets the ball tonight with an 8-5 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.28 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237  when pitching at home, those numbers rise to a 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 10 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 3 of their last 4 road games Over the Total with Kremer pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games at home Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. They have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total in September. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hill who has a 7-7 record with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts. The veteran lefty seems to be wearing down as the season closes since he has allowed four or five runs in four of his last five starts. In his last five starts, he has a 5.96 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. He has been less effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in 10 starts as opposed to his 3.80 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .240 opponent’s batting average in his 14 starts on the road. Boston has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with Hill priced as a -110 or higher favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Manager Brandon Hyde is going with a right-handed dominant starting lineup tonight against Hill — and Baltimore is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .306 batting average, a .354 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .900. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset win in a 19-16 victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York opened their season with a 21-20 upset win at Tennessee in a game when they stole the game by converting a late 2-point conversion. But both of their wins have been by a combined four points. They were outgained by a 275 to 265 margin in yardage last week against the Panthers despite being on offense for 35:57 minutes of that game. The Giants averaged a meager 3.96 Yards-Per-Play last week. They only scored six points in the first half against Carolina after getting shutout in the first half against the Titans. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games at MetLife Stadium. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC East opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. Dallas outgained the Bengals last week by a 337 to 254 yardage margin despite only having their offense on the field for 26:12 minutes of that game. While I am not buying the hype from the owner/general manager Jerry Jones about how good Cooper Rush is, it is hard to deny that he has been steady when given the opportunity to play under center for this team. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. In his five games last year which included one start, he completed 30 of 47 passes for 422 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did a good job of helping to put Rush into a position to succeed by getting the ball to playmakers. Dallas has a great rushing combination in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys go on the road for the first time this season — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against NFC East rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Rookie head coach Brian Daboll has done a nice job in motivating his team and getting them to believe in themselves — but I expect the bubble to burst tonight against a team with a better overall roster. Dallas has won nine of their last ten meetings with the Giants. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against them — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in the Meadowlands. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (487) and the Denver Broncos (488). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) comes off a 27-7 win against Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (1-1) got their first win of the season with their 16-9 victory at home against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Seahawks to just 216 yards in their victory last week. The Niners once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL. After ranking third in the league by allowing only 310.0 total Yards-Per-Game last season, they are giving up just 210.0 total YPG this year along with only 13.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 24-0 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-0) returns to action after their 27-24 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4-point favorite for Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has been a train wreck so far this season. They entered the fourth quarter of their opening game at Houston trailing by a 20-3 score before scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime — but they fired their kicker when he failed to convert the potential game-winning kick in that game as they settled for the tie (ie: half-win). The Colts then managed only 218 yards in getting shutout last week against the Jaguars. Their -3 net turnover margin did not help their cause last week. All of the sudden, Matt Ryan looks old — he has four interceptions and been involved with five fumbles. Injuries have played a role with linebacker Shaquille Leonard out and the wide receiver corps depleted last week. The good news for head coach Frank Reich is that he expects both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce to return to action after being out last week — so getting these targets back will help Ryan. While the 37-year-old’s arm strength has declined, he did still complete 67.0% of his passes last year for 3968 yards for a bad Atlanta team. After getting shutout last week, this is a “put-up or shut-up” game for this team. Look for the Colts to play their best game of the season against the Chiefs. This remains a team that was 9-8 last year while outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss to an AFC South rival. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. This team needs to show more urgency earlier in the game to not dig themselves a hole and require them to abandon Jonathan Taylor and their running game. The Colts only rushed for 54 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. After playing the first two games of the season on the road, Indianapolis returns home for their first game of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Kansas City was in danger of getting upset at home last week before they picked off a Justin Herbert pass at the goal line and returned it 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown. That was a 14-point swing. The Chiefs got outgained, 401-319, in the victory. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less at home. And while Kansas City has scored 71 combined points in their first two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. I don’t have many bad things to say about the Chiefs — as I expected, Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job spreading the ball around in the post-Tyreek Hill era. But stopping the run can be an issue for this team — they ranked 21st in the league by allowing 117.6 rushing YPG last year. The defense will be without linebacker Willie Gay for this game as he serves out a suspension. Defensive end Mike Danna did not practice on Thursday and is questionable to play with a calf — and he is one of the team’s best run defenders. Running teams like the Colts are the type of team that can give Kansas City problems. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They shave also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City just wants to leave Indianapolis with the win rather than cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts have looked as bad as any team in the league in the first two weeks — but they still may have the best roster in the AFC South and this is an urgent situation for them. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (345) and the Florida State Seminoles (346). THE SITUATION: Boston College (1-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with a 38-17 victory against Maine as a 31.5-point favorite. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with a 35-31 victory against Louisville as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles got their first win of the season against an overmatched northeast FCS program — but this is a team that is going to struggle to move the football behind a retooled offensive line that replaced all five starters from last season. Boston College is scoring only 23.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 299.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are averaging just 4.7 Yards-Per-Play. The Eagles to struggling to run the football as they are averaging just 1.7 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank 125th in Rushing Success Rate. Against their two FBS opponents, Rutgers and Virginia Tech, BC has rushed for just 33 yards on 54 combined carries (which does include sacks). Head coach Jeff Hafley is relying on senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec — but he only completed 55% of his passes and averaged 6 yards per pass attempt against the Scarlet Knights and Hokies. He did complete 25 of 37 passes for 320 yards against Maine last week — but the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Boston College has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 39-18-2 in their last 59 games after not allowing more than 20 points. The Eagles' defense has been solid — they are allowing just 22.0 PPG and 328.0 total YPG. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against ACC opponents. The Under is also 50-22-2 in their last 74 games on the road. Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis rolled his ankle last week in the game against the Cardinals and had to leave the game. After being questionable all week, the reports this afternoon is that Travis will take the field tonight — but his effectiveness will remain a question particularly because he does rely on his legs to get yardage. The Seminoles gained 455 total yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 495 yards to Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals’ offense, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Florida State is improved on defense with eight starters back from last year from a group that did not allow more than 30 points in their final eight games last year. They have held their three opponents to 20.3 PPG and 335.7 YPG. The Seminoles rank 22nd in the nation by running the football in 61% of their plays on offense — and they will likely eclipse that mark given Travis’ gimpy ankle. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles pulled off a 26-23 upset on the road against the Eagles as a 3-point favorite on November 20th with the Total set at 55.5 — these two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (345) and the Florida State Seminoles (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 38-7 victory against Colorado State as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (2-1) comes off their best game of the season in a 41-20 victory against BYU as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their statement victory against BYU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. First-year head coach Dan Lanning takes over a program that has been upset in four of their last six games when playing on the road as the favorite — and they were laying at least 8.5 points in all four of those upset losses. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lanning tapped former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to be his quarterback from the transfer portal — but the junior has a history of nasty home/road splits in his career. Granted, Nix comes off an efficient 13 of 18 passing effort against BYU where he passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career playing at home, Nix completes 65% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. But when playing on the road, Nix’s completion percentage drops to 55% with 12 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Lanning’s plans to transform the Oregon defense remain a work in progress. After serving as the defensive coordinator at Georgia, Lanning inherited a Ducks defense that lost six of their top eight tacklers from a unit that ranked 72nd in the nation by allowing 385.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Oregon ranks 118th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate this season — and they rank 97th in opponent’s Explosiveness Rate. They are allowing their opponents to average 277.0 passing YPG, ranking 114th in the FBS. BYU passed for 305 yards last week despite missing their top two wide receivers to injury — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward comes off his best game for the Cougars last week. The highly-touted transfer from Incarnate Word completed 25 of 35 passes for 292 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory against the Rams. He led the Cougars to a 17-14 upset win against a nationally-ranked Wisconsin team the previous week. Washington State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. But the strength of this team under head coach Jake Dickert has been the play of the defense. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 Points-Per-Game this season — and they rank 12th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate with a balanced unit that is 18th in the FBS in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate and 17th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. Washington State is holding their opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the nation, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They have also registered 14 sacks, the second-most in the nation. They held Colorado State to just 275 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 competition.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State will have revenge on their minds after a 38-24 loss in Eugene against the Ducks on November 13th last season. But Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Cougars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Washington State in Pullman. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to rebound from a 17-14 loss to New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The low total in this game is daring bettors to take the Over — but let’s not take the sugar. The Steelers managed only 243 total yards last week in the narrow loss to the Patriots — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Pittsburgh offense is held back by an offensive line that is still a work in progress — and they are not getting challenging defenses with their vertical passing game under quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers are scoring only 18.5 Points-Per-Game — and seven of those points came from a pick-six in their opening week upset win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has only managed two offensive touchdowns from the 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game they are averaging. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a narrow loss by three points or less. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 44-18-1 in their last 63 games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 6 straight Unders in the first month of the season — and they have played 4 straight Unders against fellow AFC North opponents. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games at home Under the Total after losing their last game. And while their first two games of the season have finished Over the Total, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Browns are allowing 27.5 PPG despite holding both opponents to 331.5 total YPG. Cleveland still has an outstanding defense that ranked 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 311.5 total YPG. JaDeveon Clowney will miss this game due to injury but Myles Garrett is expected to play after missing practice on Thursday. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to 54 and 93 rushing yards — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Browns generated 405 yards against the Jets last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. It may be scary to play the Under with the number so low — but that is the point. Both teams will likely struggle to score touchdowns in the Red Zone. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-0) comes off a 23-7 victory at home against Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) defeated the Lions in Detroit last Sunday by a 38-35 score as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory against the Packers last week. He seems to be more comfortable under new head coach Kevin O’Connell who was his quarterback coach in Washington in 2017.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — and for Rodgers to continue their touches in the passing game. Expect longer possessions from them tonight as they burn the clock. But the Packers need to play better on defense after they allowed the Vikings to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 395 total yards against them. The Green Bay defense should be a strength after they drafted two of the hot shots from the Georgia defense in the first round of the NFL draft, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quan Walker, to help a group that ranked ninth in the league by allowing 328.2 Yards-Per-Game. The Packers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins passed for 269 yards against them — just under 50 passing YPG above their season average last year. But Green Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Chicago only gained 204 yards last week in their upset win against the 49ers. That mark along with their 3.8 Yards-Per-Play average was the lowest offensive numbers in the league last week. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The second-year quarterback completed 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards dealing with the rainstorm conditions in the south of Chicago during that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. He lacks reliable weapons in the passing game outside of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. But expect more solid defensive efforts from this team moving forward under a defensive head coach in Matt Eberflus who inherited a defense that ranked sixth in the NFL by allowing 316.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Chicago has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 12th when Green Bay won by a 45-30 score at Lambeau Field in a game that Fields was under center for the Bears. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry can use that game tape to slow down Fields this time around. The Packers did respond to their 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opener last year by returning home to Lambeau where they crushed Detroit by a 35-17 score — but he had Adams in that game who caught eight of his nine targets for 121 receiving yards. Rodgers is going to continue to eye-roll at his wide receivers failing him tonight because he wants the world to know that it is not his fault (it never is) — so expect more offensive drives that settle for field goals rather than five touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.

FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian  — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.

FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (76-67) had their three-game winning streak snapped in their 4-1 loss at St. Louis on Wednesday. New York (87-56) has won four in a row after their 5-3 victory at Boston on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Yankees have steadied the ship after a listless August — but they have lost 13 of their last 17 games on the road after winning two in a row against a divisional rival. But New York’s bullpen has logged in 16 innings in their last three games with at least four innings pitched in each of those games — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games when their bullpen has pitched at least four innings in three straight games. The Yankees stay on the road where they have lost 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Additionally, New York has lost 6 of their last 8 games in Interleague play — and they have lost 5 in a row on the road against National League teams. They give the ball to Montas who has a 5-12 record with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home for the Yankees and previously with Oakland before being traded over at the trade deadline. Montas has a 3.11 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .239 batting average in 15 home starts — but those numbers rise to a 5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 in his 11 starts on the road. In his nine starts since the All-Star Break, he has a 5.28 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .292. His teams have lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Montas’ teams have also lost 10 of their last 12 games when he is pitching and priced in the +/- 125 range. Milwaukee has won 13 of their last 16 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 11 of their last 16 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Brewers were upset in their game on the road against the Cardinals with Corbin Burnes on the hill — and they have won 18 of their last 28 games after an upset loss to an NL Central rival. They have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than one run in a loss to a divisional rival. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games after an off day. They return home where they have won 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have won 13 of their last 16 games against teams from the American League — and they have won 6 straight home games in Interleague play. They counter with Houser who has a 6-9 record with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts). The right-hander has a 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a .223 opponent’s batting average in his nine games at home as opposed to his 6.14 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .285 on the road. In his two starts this month, Houser has a 2-0 record with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. The Brewers have won 9 of their last 14 games with Houser on the hill priced as a money-line underdog priced up to +150.

FINAL TAKE: These are all reasons to take Milwaukee as an underdog with the money-line (which is fine) — but with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line priced at -150 in many locations, that is my preferred option to take advantage of this situation. The Yankees have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 8 of their last 12 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Milwaukee Brewers (930) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (929) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September. The LA offense was not dynamic last week against the Raiders as they only gained 355 total yards — down more than 35 yards from their season average last year. They did control time of possession for 32:32 minutes in that game which will probably be their formula tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been declared out with a hamstring injury which will make Mike Williams the primary option and elevate Joshua Palmer into the starting lineup. Losing Allen is significant since Williams had seven drops last year and Palmer lacks down-the-field speed. Allen is the glue to this group. With the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. Now I do believe Mahomes put himself in a much better position than say, Aaron Rodgers, to be patient and take what the defense will give him this season in the first year without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals. Mahomes had a fantastic statistical afternoon — going 30 of 39 for 360 yards with five touchdown passes — but the drives were not as quick-strike without Hill. And, hey, what do ya know? The defense benefited from the long drives as they held Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to just 282 total yards. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 24 first downs while having the offense on the field for at least 34 minutes in their last previous game. The Chiefs ranked 8th in the NFL last year by allowing 21.4 Points-Per-Game — and they performed much better when they acquired Melvin Ingram midseason which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle. While Ingram is now gone, they drafted Purdue’s disruptive defensive tackle George Karlaftis in the first round to replace him and keep Jones at his preferred inside position. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Under).

FINAL TAKE: Both games between these two teams had at least 54 combined points scored — so I understand the arguments for the Over. But Staley is leaning-in to light boxes to defend against the pass which begs opposing offenses to run the ball. The Chargers allowed opponents to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry against their light boxes last year. I expect Kansas City to have success on offense — but with long drives and less explosiveness. It does not take much in the game script to get off the pace to finish Over 54 points. And then when you add the short week for both teams and my expectation that Staley calms down on his zeal to go for it on every fourth down, look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient  — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.                         

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (67-61) has won five games in a row after their 10-5 victory against the Red Sox in the second game of this series yesterday. Boston (62-68) has lost three straight games and seven of their last nine contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last game — and they have won 12 of their last 18 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also won 4 games in a row after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least nine runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Twins have won 5 games in a row at home — and they have won 19 of their last 26 home games when priced in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Ryan who has a 10-6 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander got COVID in mid-May — and he struggled with his velocity when he turned to the mound three weeks later. But the 26-year-old rookie has regained his touch this month with a 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts. He comes off six shutout innings in his last start against San Francisco on Friday — and Minnesota has won 6 of their last 9 games when Ryan is following up a start in which he did not allow more than two earned runs. He thrives at home at Target Field where he has a 2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in 12 starts as opposed to his 5.05 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266 on the road. The Twins have won 8 of their last 11 games at home with Ryan on the mound priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. He faces a Red Sox team that has lost 7 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston ranks 27th in MLB since July 1st in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created when on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game — and they have also lost 24 of their last 36 games after losing three of their last four games. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games after allowing at least ten runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Boston has lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Wacha who has a 9-1 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 16 starts on the road. The deeper sabermetrics suggest that the right-hander is excelling on borrowed time with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.26 and 4.09 moving forward. He has been most effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .182 — but in his eight starts on the road, he has a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .230.

FINAL TAKE: The Twins looked to be fading fast in the AL Central race at this time last week — but after a weekend sweep against San Francisco and now taking the first game of this series with Byron Buxton and Tyler Mahle set to return from the injured list soon — there is new enthusiasm from this team. Boston has gone just 19-35 since the beginning of July — and now President Sam Kennedy is denying speculation that he is prepared to clean house in the offseason. Minnesota is scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (920) versus the Boston Red Sox (919) listing both starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Michael Wacha. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (130). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-2) lost their second straight exhibition game this preseason with a 13-3 loss at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Indianapolis (0-2) is also winless this preseason after a 27-26 upset loss at home to Detroit last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Both head coaches will be using this game as a dress rehearsal for their starters for the regular season. Tom Brady will get the start for Tampa Bay. Head coach Todd Bowles has not commented regarding how long Brady and the starters will play -- but he did state that every healthy player will get into the game tonight. I think Brady plays into the second quarter (at least). He missed 11 days during camp for undisclosed reasons — and that has hampered his ability to get fully into synch with new receivers like Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Kyle Rudolph. There is significant turnover on the offensive line as well — so getting live action against hostile competition will help. Brady has not had the benefit of joint practices with another opponent this preseason. Brady played in the third preseason game last year — and he completed 11 of 14 passes for 154 yards with a touchdown pass. Blaine Gabbert took over by the second quarter — so I expect something similar with Brady needing the work with his teammates. Injuries along with the offseason retirement of left guard Ali Marpet is a serious concern for Brady and the Buccaneers — but playing the Colts offers a good warm-up. While Indianapolis does have DeForest Buckner at defensive tackle who had 18 quarterback hits last year (if he plays tonight), the Colts only has 120 pressure on the QB last season — second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay beat Houston in that third preseason game in which Brady started — and the same backup quarterback combination will complete the job under center for them tonight. Blaine Gabbert might have failed to develop into an elite starting quarterback in the NFL — but he is one of the better backups in the league. He has been very efficient this preseason by completing 8 of 10 passes for 69 yards and a touchdown pass (and no interceptions) in his limited work in both preseason games. Gabbert has 48 career starts during the regular season with over 9200 passing yards. And then second-year pro Kyle Trask has made his case as the potential heir apparent to Brady by completing 36 of 57 passes for 363 yards this preseason. Those are good numbers for a third-string quarterback in the preseason. Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich stated that the majority of his starters will play through the first half — but there are some notable exceptions. Neither Jonathan Taylor nor Nyheim Hines will play tonight leaving the Colts with only running backs fighting for a roster spot. Center Ryan Kelly has been out with COVID this week so I do not expect him to play as he recovers. Defensive end Kwity Paye is out with an injury. Indianapolis does have a good quarterback room behind Matt Ryan who will get the start tonight. Nick Foles is a former Super Bowl winner (although he has not been a regular starter in the league since). Second-year pro Sam Ehlinger has put up good numbers this preseason. I am not as high on rookie Jack Coan who played for Notre Dame last year after transferring from Wisconsin. But these QBs will be playing against a stout Tampa Bay defense that was 5th in the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG. In this preseason playing mostly the backups, the Buccaneers have allowed only 19.5 PPG and 248.5 total YPG. The Colts are winless this preseason despite that solid quarterback room — and Ryan played in their opening exhibition game. The Indy defense has allowed 27.0 PPG and 350.5 total YPG — and the Colts have been outgained by -61.0 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There is value in fading home favorites in the preseason since the home-field advantage is negligible in front of a crowd that is saving their passions for the regular season. For example, Indianapolis did not commit a turnover in their upset loss to the Lions last week — and home teams in the preseason who did not commit a turnover in their previous preseason game have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of the last 42 games in the preseason. Expecting the Colts at home to cover a point spread of more than a field goal is a big ask — especially since the Buccaneers could easily win this game. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (0-0) returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. FAU (0-0) has 14 starters back as well from their team that finished 5-7 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers need to improve a defensive unit that allowed 34.0 PPG and that ranked 120th in the FBS by giving up 465.0 total YPG — but head coach Will Nealy has reasons for optimism in his fourth year with the program. He brought a wily veteran with plenty of experience in the NFL and the FBS level in Greg Brown to coordinate his defense this season. Brown served as the defensive coordinator for Arizona in 2018 -- and he has over a decade of experience as a defensive coach in the NFL. He has experienced players that he should be able to coach up as eight seniors who played at least 250 snaps last year returned. Injuries did not help Charlotte’s cause last year with the team losing 46 total games to injuries from their starters. Getting Davondre “Tank” Robinson back at strong safety after the former East Carolina transfer suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week One will help. Healy also brought in a four-year player in defensive end Amir Siddiq from Central Michigan to add a pass rush threat to a line that has two starts returning. He joins defensive end Markees Watts to give the team an intriguing pass rush combination who combined for ten sacks last year. The 49errs offense returns Chris Reynolds at quarterback for his sixth year with the program and his fifth as a starter. At this point, we know what we are going to get with the fifth-year starter (with the COVID season where no player lost eligibility). He completed 215 of 337 yards for 2648 yards — but the offense only scored 27.2 PPG which ranked 79th in the nation. Charlotte has palled 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. And in their last 7 games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. FAU returns eight starters from their offense that only scored 25.4 PPG last year, ranking 84th in the FBS. Former Miami (FL) quarterback N’Kosi Perry returns under center after he completed only 60.7% of his passes for 2771 yards. Perry has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in his career — but his inconsistency is why he lost the starting job with the Hurricanes and eventually transferred to a Group of Five program. He plays behind an offensive line that allowed 35 sacks last year. The Owls' defense gave up 409.2 total YPG last year (90th in the FBS) but they only gave up 25.8 PPG which was tied for 58th in the nation. Third-year head coach Willie Taggart retooled his defense by bringing in Todd Orlando as the new defensive coordinator after previous stints with USC, Texas, and the University of Houston. The veteran has six returning starters plus a slew of transfers led by sophomore linebacker Jamie Pettway from Missouri. FAU held their first eight opponents to only 21.5 PPG last year — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Owls have also played 18 of their last 26 games at home Under the Total with the Total in the 56.5-63 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. FAU dominated Charlotte last year by a 38-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite on the road with that Total set at 58. Healy has probably reminded himself every day in the offseason that his team has a 6-3 record in the last two seasons if they do not allow more than 35 points — but they are 1-8 in their last nine games when their opponent scores more than 35 points. The 49ers need to control the clock to help Reynolds stay within striking distance. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) comes off a 20-10 victory against Carolina as a 6-point favorite in their second preseason game last Friday. Las Vegas (3-0) remained unbeaten in their three preseason games after a 15-13 upset victory at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots come off a game where they scored a defensive touchdown by recovering a fumble in the fourth quarter — and they allowed the Panthers to score on a 50-yard interception touchdown in the third quarter. We lost our Under play on Monday after the Jets scored a defensive touchdown early in the fourth quarter — but I do not expect this minor rash of defensive touchdowns to continue. The bigger takeaway from New England’s second preseason game is that their defense did not allow an offensive touchdown while holding the Panthers to just 192 total yards. The Patriots have an outstanding defense that finished 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 Points-Per-Game — and this is a unit with depth. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in the contest — and they have played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after playing a preseason game where they had a +2 net turnover margin and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after generating a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Now after playing their first two preseason games at home in Gillette Stadium, they go on the road for their lone road trip this month — and they have played 5 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total after a two-game home stand in the preseason. The Patriots took part in joint practices at the Raiders facilities here in Las Vegas (technically in Henderson, very close to the Hollywood Sports home offices, BTW). Head coach Bill Belichick has been ripped for not hiring an experienced offensive coordinator — instead, he is using longtime staff members and former (failed) head coaches, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, to work with the offense while auditioning for the play-calling duties. This development is making it difficult for their regular season opponents to scout against them since there is not a book on Patricia or Judge when calling offensive plays. Do not expect Belichick to offer any clues in this preseason game — and any of the more sophisticated plays he wanted second-year quarterback Mac Jones to work on probably took place in the joint practices with the Raiders. Jones played only three series last week against Carolina — don’t look for him to take the field in this final preseason game. Expect rookie Bailey Zappe from Western Kentucky to get most — or all of the snaps — since there is no urgency for Belichick to get 14-year veteran Brian Hoyer some snaps. The Patriots will probably not use either of their top two running backs, Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson after Harris left the final joint practice with the Raiders on Wednesday with a minor injury. Las Vegas only managed 289 total yards of offense despite being on the field for over 33 minutes in their preseason game against the Dolphins last week. Derek Carr has not taken the field in any of the first three preseason games for first-year head coach Josh McDaniels — and after two good joint practices against the Patriots’ first-string defense, it would be a big surprise if the starting quarterback would risk injury now. With the Raiders playing four preseason games this year with their involvement in the Hall of Fame Game, the traditional dress rehearsal game for McDaniels if he wanted to get Carr some live action would have been last week. Las Vegas then traded away their veteran quarterback Nick Mullens to Minnesota earlier in the week — so it will probably be just Jarrett Stidham and rookie Chase Garbers under center for this one. Stidham played for McDaniels the previous two seasons when he was the offensive coordinator in New England — so this game may be mostly under Garbers’ leadership, the rookie QB from California, to see what he can do. Look for plenty of running plays from the Raiders offense as well — they have run the ball in 97 of their 198 snaps in their three preseason games (yes, I track run/pass ratios for these exhibition games to help find an edge) for a 49% clip which should help our Under play since the clock should continue to run all night when they are on offense. Las Vegas has averaged just 303.3 total YPG in their three preseason games — but their defense has shined by holding their three opponents to 14.7 PPG and only 303.7 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Preseason coaching trends are of particular interest to me — but with all the new coaches, the wiped-out preseason in 2020 because of COVID, and the reduction of four preseason games to three starting last year, the sample sizes to discover actionable evidence has declined. But New England offers the deepest sample size of exhibition games to digest with Belichick in his 23rd year leading the team. The Patriots have played 16 of their last 24 road games in the preseason Under the Total when an underdog getting up to three points. 25* AFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (115) and the Las Vegas Raiders (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. THE SITUATION: New York (80-46) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 3-1 victory against the Rockies last night. Colorado (54-72) has lost two in a row — and eight of their last 11 — after their loss to Jacob DeGrom last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has won 23 of their last 31 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they have only scored five runs in their last two games, they have then won 14 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. The Mets have won 37 of their last 51 home games when priced at -110 or higher. They have also won 28 of their last 36 games when priced as a money-line favorite at -200 or higher. They give the ball to Bassitt who has an 11-7 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts this season. The right-hander has thrived at home where he enjoys a 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .218 in 12 starts as opposed to his 4.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 on the road. New York has won 18 of their last 26 home games when Bassitt is on the bump when favored at -110 or higher. They have also won 11 in a row when Bassitt is favored at -200 or higher. He faces a Rockies team that scores only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .235 batting average, a .287 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .634. Colorado has lost 65 of their last 89 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also lost 20 of their last 25 road games as an underdog priced at +250 or higher. They counter with Kuhl who has a 6-7 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander returns to the mound after being on the injured list with a right flexor strain. He was struggling before hitting the DL while also working on some adjustments to his delivery. In his last six starts since the start of July, Kohl has been saddled with a 10.17 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP. And while he has a 4.17 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in his nine starts at home, he has been roughed up with a 6.08 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and a .288 opponent’s batting average in his 11 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 26 of their last 34 road games with Kuhl pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Mets win, it is usually by more than one run. New York has played 38 games this season priced above my -150 price threshold — and while they have been upset 10 times, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 21 of their 28 victories under these circumstances. Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher 52 times this season — and while they have pulled the upset in 16 of those games, they have failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line in 27 of their 36 losses in those situations. 25* MLB Run-Line of the Month with the New York Mets (958) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (957) listing both starting pitchers Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:37 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. THE SITUATION: Miami (54-69) has won two games in a row after their 5-3 victory against the A’s in the second game of their series. Oakland (45-79) has lost four of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Before Tuesday night’s game, the Marlins had not scored more than four runs in 23 straight games — and they did not score more than three runs in 21 of those games. The Under is 21-8-2 in Miami’s last 31 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Marlins have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Luzardo who has a 3-5 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.15 moving forward. He comes off an impressive start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday when he allowed only one run in 6 1/3 innings against the commanding MLB leader in runs scored. Miami has played 4 straight Unders this season when Luzardo is on the mound following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. In his last four starts this month since coming back from a forearm injury that kept him on the shelf since May, Luzardo has a 2.76 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .188. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .128 in six starts as opposed to his 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .253 opponent’s batting average in four starts at home. Luzardo also sports a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .154 in four starts. He faces an A’s team that has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. At home, the A’s are scoring only 2.8 Runs-Per-Game while posting a .205 batting average, .268 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .585. The Under is 28-13-1 in their last 42 games at home. They counter with Irvin who has a 6-11 record this season with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 22 starts. The left-hander has been much more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.12 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .199 in 12 starts as compared to his 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .270 on the road. Oakland has played 13 of their last 20 home games Under the Total with Irvin pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He pitches against a listless Marlins lineup that is hitting just .188 in their last seven games with a .261 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .607 during that span.

FINAL TAKE: Since June 1st, Miami ranks 28th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage on the road against left-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 29th in MLB since June 1st in weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. Oakland ranks 29th in MLB in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st — and they rank 27th in weighted Runs Created at home against left-handed starting pitchers since June 1st. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Marlins (971) and the Oakland A’s (972) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Cole Irvin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-0) opened their preseason campaign with a 27-23 upset win at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on August 12th. New York (1-0) also pulled off an upset in their first preseason game with a 24-21 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on August 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets will be playing their third and fourth string quarterbacks in this game tonight. Zach Wilson injured his knee last week which will keep him out for at least the rest of the regular season. Veteran Joe Flacco has looked good in practice — but second-year head coach Robert Saleh will not risk him getting injured in an exhibition game since he may be needed to quarterback the team to start the season. That means that Mike White and Chris Streveler will get the snaps for the Jets tonight. White completed only 10 of his 20 passes last week for 98 yards White was solid in four games and three starts last year — but too often he was a Check-Down Charlie as he averaged just 4.1 yards in the air per completion. Streveler is a former Grey Cup champion for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but he has played in only two games in the NFL in his career with Arizona. The Jets only gained 302 yards last week against the Eagles — but the defense played well by holding Philadelphia to just 313 total yards. After allowing the Eagles to score 31 points in the opening preseason game last season, Saleh’s teams in the preseason have held their last three opponents to 14 PPG. Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will play Marcus Mariota in the first quarter tonight — but rookie Desmond Ridder will likely get the majority of the snaps tonight. The former Cincinnati Bearcat was up-and-down last week in completing just 10 of 22 passes for 103 yards. Second-year pro Feleipe Franks is likely to get some snaps under center in the fourth quarter. Mariota played last week — but the Falcons only gained 307 yards on 18 first downs.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons scored only 30 points in their three preseason games last year — they are averaging 14.3 PPG in the four preseason games under Smith. The Jets have averaged 19.7 PPG in their last three games under Saleh. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (431) and the New York Jets (432). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. THE SITUATION: Chicago (52-67) has won five straight games after taking the second game of this NL Central series by a 6-5 score yesterday. Milwaukee (63-56) has lost five of their last seven games (PLEASE NOTE: I accidentally entered this Report for the Cubs as a money-line play (which is fine), but I do prefer and endorse the Cubs plus the +1.5 Run-Line since that price is below my -150 price threshold -- FYI).

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Cubs are playing feisty baseball this month despite being out of the playoff picture. They have won 14 of their last 17 games after a victory by one run — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than five runs in their last contest. The first two games in this series have finished Over the Total — and Chicago has won 15 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also won 24 of their last 35 games at home after winning four or five of their last six games. The Cubbies have won 9 of their last 11 games at home at Wrigley Field — and they have beaten 7 of their last 10 opponents with winning records. Steele gets the ball with a 4-7 record along with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 22 starts. He is incorporating a change up into his arsenal — and in his late eight starts, he sports a 1.67 ERA with 50 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 43 innings. He does his best work at home where he enjoys a 3.03 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .246 in thirteen starts as compared to his 4.04 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260. He faces a slumping Brewers lineup that is scoring just 3.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .165 batting average, .252 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .577 during that span. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 8 games after scoring five runs in their last contest — and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The Brewers have now lost four games in a row to the Cubs with the last three losses by just one run — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games when avenging three or more straight losses to their opponent by two runs or less. Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 games on the road. Furthermore, the Brewers have lost 6 straight games on the road against teams with a losing record. They counter with Woodruff who has a 9-3 record with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .181 in eight starts — but in his ten starts on the road, he has a 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .266. Milwaukee has lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Woodruff on the hill with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. The Cubs are scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends above do not even take into account the +1.5 Run-Line we are taking for this play. Six of the last 12 losses for the Cubs have been by just one run. Three of the Brewers last 4 victories — along with 7 of their last 14 wins — have been by just one run. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Cubs (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-0) won their opening preseason game at home against Green Bay last Friday by a 28-21 score as a 2.5-point favorite. Minnesota (0-1) lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams completed two days of joint practices on Wednesday and Thursday of this week — so the most sophisticated offensive plays they were willing to show each other took place then rather than in this game which the remaining 30 teams in the league can access. The respective offensive game plans are not just going to be vanilla — they are going to be generic brand vanilla. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan already proclaimed earlier in the preseason that he would not use his starters for this second preseason game. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk claimed the joint practices were a “waste of time” because he was barely used. He may miss even that excitement for tonight’s game. Trey Lance is not likely to play — and Shanahan will not risk Jimmy Garoppolo getting injured since that would ruin his trade value. So, expect some Nate Sudfeld under center and plenty of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. The seventh-round pick out of Iowa State completed 3 of 6 passes for 36 yards against the Packers last week. The Niners are dealing with injuries at running back with Elijah Mitchell already out and now Trey Sermon dealing with a foot injury that he endured during the joint practices. The Niners’ offense will probably be plenty of rushing attempts for rookie Tyrion Davis-Price along with Jeff Wilson and JaMychal Hasty with the clock running constantly with Shanahan just wanting to escape the game without injuries. His teams have played all 5 of their preseason games Under the Total when playing on the road. Minnesota only managed to gain 298 yards last week in their loss to the Raiders — but they did hold Las Vegas to just 300 total yards. Rookie head coach Kevin O’Connell did not play the key offensive starters last week — and he has declared that he will sit quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Backup Sean Mannion will probably get some snaps — but the starter will be second-year pro Kellen Mond who will probably play the majority of the game.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams that could face each other in the NFC playoffs — frankly, I’m surprised that these coaches agreed to the joint practices earlier this week. O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams — so the Sean McVay offensive system is already well-known to Shanahan. These two teams probably played the greatest hits from the established Shanahan/McVay playbooks during the week — and the backups on offense will be asked to execute those plays once again against defensive players who have working against them for two days already. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFCx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (421) and the Minnesota Vikings (422). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. THE SITUATION: New York (71-41) has lost two straight games — and seven of their last eight — after their 4-3 loss in Seattle to the Mariners on Wednesday. Boston (55-58) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 4-3 win against Baltimore last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The slumping Yankees had scored nine runs in two straight games before getting shutout by a 1-0 score to the Mariners on Tuesday and then losing by one-run again on Wednesday. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by two runs or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row by one run. They continue their road trip where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when the Total is in the 9-10.5 range — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 16 games against divisional rivals, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. Manager Aaron Boone gives the ball to German who has a 1-2 record with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season. After missing all of 2020 because of domestic abuse charges, he returned last season to generate a 4-5 record with a 4.58 ERA in 98 1/3 innings. His season was delayed this year due to a shoulder injury. Giving up gopher balls has always been an issue for the right-hander — and he has already served up four home runs in his 17 innings this year. German looked good in his rehab starts — but he has been saddled with a 5.68 ERA in his three starts on the road since his return to the mound. He has only pitched 106 innings from 2019 which was his best full season despite a 4.03 ERA. He has a career 4.56 ERA while allowing 1.68 home runs per nine innings. In his 25 career innings at Fenway Park, he has a 4.68 ERA. The Yankees have also played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total with German their starting pitcher at night. He faces a Red Sox team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams using a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total playing at home in Fenway Park. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against AL East rivals. They counter with Eovaldi who has a 5-3 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The right-hander missed about five weeks prior to the All-Star Break earlier this summer with back inflammation — and since his return, his velocity is down. While he did pitch surprisingly well two starts ago in Houston against the Astros recently, he still has a 7.29 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .304 in his four starts the second half of the season. He has pitched better on the road where he owns a 2.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in ten starts — but in his seven starts at home, he has been saddled with a 6.81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an opponents batting average .320 in seven starts at home. The Red Sox have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with Eovaldi pitching with the Total in the 9-10.5 range. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that ranks 3rd and 2nd on the road against right-handed starting pitchers in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Bronx Bombers have scored 14 runs in each of their last two games against Boston. These two teams have played 7 straight Overs — and they have played 5 straight Overs when playing in Fenway Park. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (969) and the Boston Red Sox (970) listing both starting pitchers Domingo German and Nathan Eovaldi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. THE SITUATION: Chicago (56-54) has won two of their last three games after their 3-2 victory against the Royals yesterday. Kansas City (45-66) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: While Chicago has been a disappointment so far this season, they are still very much alive in the American League playoff race. They have been riddled with injuries all season — but manager Tony LaRussa has finally been able to pencil in his expected opening day lineup this month. Not surprisingly, the White Sox are playing better baseball — they have won seven of their last eleven games and have not lost a series since their July 4th series with Minnesota. Chicago’s struggles have mostly been at home where they have a 25-29 record this season. But the White Sox have won 13 of their last 21 games on the road with the Total set in the 8.5-10 range — and they have won 13 of their last 17 road games when priced as a money-line favorite at -125 or higher. Chicago has also won 5 of their last 7 games against AL Central rivals. Cueto gets the start with his 4-5 record along with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 14 starts (15 appearances). The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he enjoys a 2.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in seven starts as compared to his 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .260 at home. His teams have won 7 of their last 10 road games when he is on the mound with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He should have success against this Royals team that scores only 3.8 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers. Since the beginning of June when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers, Kansas City ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage and 22nd in weighted Runs Created. The Royals have lost 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. After trading away Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, and Carlos Santana last month, this team has fully embraced rebuilding by playing their prospects for the rest of the season. Kansas City has lost 36 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 17 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Bubic who has a 2-6 record along with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 17 games (18 appearances). The left-hander struggles with control — he is averaging 5.03 walks per nine innings when pitching at home. He has been less effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.86 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .281 in ten starts as opposed to his 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .257 opponent’s batting average on the road. Bubic has been pitching better as of late by not allowing more than three earned runs in seven starts — but the Royals have lost 5 of those 7 games still.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox rake left-handed pitching — since June 1st when playing on the road against left-handed pitchers, Chicago ranks 3rd in weighted on-base percentage and 2nd in weighted Runs Created. They have won 14 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. 25* MLB Wednesday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago White Sox (973) versus the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Kris Bubic. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (73-33) won their seventh straight game — and 10th in their last 11 contests — with their 8-3 victory against the Padres in the second game of this series. San Diego (61-48) has lost three games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles is rolling now — and they have won 40 of their last 53 games after winning their last contest. They have also won 26 of their last 35 games after a win by four or more runs. Additionally, the Dodgers have won 9 of their last 11 games after winning two in a row against a divisional rival — and they have won 47 of their last 58 games at home after winning three or more games in a row. LA is crushing the baseball right now — they have scored 16 runs in the first two games in this series while plating 48 runners in their last seven contests. They have won 17 of their last 22 games after scoring eight or more runs in their last game. They have won 56 of their last 73 games at home at Dodger Stadium — and they have won 40 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning record. They have also won 9 of their last 11 home games when priced as a money-line favorite no higher than -150 — and they have won 18 of their last 19 home games against NL West rivals. Anderson gets the start with his 12-1 record along with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 18 starts (20 appearances). The left-hander has been outstanding when pitching at home where he enjoys a 2.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .216 in nine games (eight starts) as opposed to his 3.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .235 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Dodgers have won 7 of his 8 starts at home this season — and Anderson’s teams have won 12 of their last 14 games when he is on the mound looking to extend a winning streak. He faces a Padres team that does not hit left-handed pitching very well — especially with Fernando Tatis yet to play this season. San Diego scores only 4.1 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .244 batting average, .312 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .674. Since the beginning of June, the Padres rank 16th on the road in weighted on-base percentage and 17th on the road in weighted Runs Created. The Padres have lost 7 of their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have lost 4 straight road games against left-handed starters. They made big moves at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader — but they still can’t beat the Dodgers. San Diego has now lost 7 of their 9 games against their NL West rivals — and they have lost 42 of their last 59 games against them in Dodger Stadium. The Padres have lost 5 straight games after dropping the first two games in a new series. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Darvish who has a 10-4 record along with a 3.30 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 20 starts. But while the right-hander thrives at home with a 2.17 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .172 in ten starts, those numbers rise to a 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Darvish had a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .206 in 17 home starts but a 5.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts on the road. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Darvish pitching with the Total set from 8.5-10 — and they have lost 13 of their 20 games in the second half of the season with him making the start.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are scoring 6.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .294 batting average, .337 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .827 in those contests. They have won 37 of their last 51 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have won 39 of their last 52 games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. THE SITUATION: Chicago (41-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss to the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (50-51) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs had won six straight games before dropping two of three. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after losing their last game. Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Sampson takes the mound for the Cubs with his 0-1 record along with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 39 1/3 innings. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 10 2/3 innings which includes two starts as opposed to his 3.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .254 opponent’s batting average at home at Wrigley Field. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Sampson on the hill priced as a money-line underdog at +150 or higher. He faces a slumping Giants lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game with a .220 batting average, .270 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .624 in those games. San Francisco ranks 27th in MLB since June 1st in weighted on-base percentage when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank 24th in weighted Runs Scored at home against right-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and the Under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home. They counter with Rodon who has an 8-6 record with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts. The deeper sabermetrics validate his outstanding season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.12 and 3.14 moving forward. The lefty has a 2.05 ERA in his eight starts at home as opposed to his 3.88 ERA on the road. His teams have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when he is the starting pitcher priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Cubs team scoring only 3.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .224 batting average, .274 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .666 during that span. Since June 1st against left-handed starting pitchers, Chicago ranks 20th in weighted on-base percentage on the road and 23rd in weighted Runs Created. The Cubs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters against each other Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at Oracle Park. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (961) and the San Francisco Giants (962) listing both starting pitchers Adrian Sampson and Carlos Rodon. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (53-47) has won three straight games after their 4-2 victory against the Pirates in the second game of this four-game series. Pittsburgh (40-60) has lost five games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Phillies have won 21 of their last 31 games after winning their last game — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after winning at least two games in a row. The Philly bullpen did not give up an earned run last night — and Philadelphia has won 28 of their last 42 games after their bullpen did not give up an earned run in their last contest. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, after winning the opening game of this series by an 8-7 score, they have won 5 of their last 7 games after winning their two previous games by no more than two runs. After a slow start to the season that got manager Joe Girardi fired, the Phillies have a 31-18 record since the beginning of June. They have won 19 of their last 29 games on the road — and they have won 5 straight games on the road. They give the ball to Suarez who has a 7-5 record with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 17 starts. After a slow start to the season, the left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 10 innings. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .249 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.54 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .274 when pitching at home. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games on the road with Suarez on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .187 batting average, .249 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .549 during that span. They rank 25th in MLB at home against left-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created. Pittsburgh has lost 8 of their last 10 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Pirates have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They have lost 40 of their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series — and they have lost 27 of their last 30 games after losing two games in a row by two runs or less. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. They counter with Keller who has a 3-7 record along with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 19 games which include 17 starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where has a 4.66 ERA and a .277 opponent’s batting average in nine games and eight starts at home as compared to his more modest 4.44 ERA and .271 opponent’s batting average on the road. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Keller on the mound.

FINAL TAKE: The Phillies have a .277 batting average in their last seven games — and they have won 23 of their last 34 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has also won 6 of their last 7 games against the Pirates. 25* MLB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (905) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) listing both starting pitchers Ranger Suarez and Mitch Keller. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (684) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (683). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (4-3) has lost two straight games after their 31-21 upset loss at home to Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. British Columbia (4-1) has won four of their first five games this season after their 17-12 win against Hamiton as a 9.5-point favorite last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROUGHRIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Saskatchewan has been dealing with a COVID outbreak over the last two weeks — but head coach Craig Dickenson claims that his team is now on the “tail end” of the challenge and is getting back to full strength. Dickenson was forced to turn to third-string quarterback Jake Dolega last week with both Cody Fajardo and Mason Fine out with positive COVID tests. Fajardo has been confirmed as tonight’s starter. The Roughriders were in position to pull the upset last week in their second-straight game against the Argonauts. They led 15-11 at halftime and went into the fourth quarter with a 21-14 lead. They had the ball trailing by a 24-21 score late in the game — but a disastrous fumble was returned for a 10-yard defensive touchdown to ice the game for Toronto. This remains a talented Saskatchewan team with Grey Cup aspirations after losing to the two-time champions Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the West Division Final last year by a 21-17 score. The Roughriders have bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after getting upset at home as a favorite by double-digits. Saskatchewan has lost two in a row while not covering the point spread in either game — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing two of their last three games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. They return home where they are 3-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +10.8 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Lions are getting good play at quarterback from former Ohio Bobcat Nathan O’Rourke in his first season as their starter. But this is just the second game on the road for British Columbia this season after only beating the lowly Ottawa Redblacks by a 34-31 score. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against West Division foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when priced in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in July. Saskatchewan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in July. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Month with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (684) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (683). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (53-46) has lost five of their last six games after their 3-0 shutout loss at Baltimore yesterday. Cleveland (50-48) has lost four of their last six contests after their 4-2 loss at Boston on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after suffering a shutout loss to a fellow American League East rival. And while the Rays only scratched out four hits against the Orioles, they have then won 27 of their last 39 games after not generating more than four base hits in their last game. Tampa Bay has also won 39 of their last 58 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Now after playing their last seven games on the road, they return home to Tropicana Field for the first time since July 17th — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games at home after being on the road for at least a week. The Rays have won 6 straight games at home against teams with a winning record — and they have won 15 of their last 19 home games after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 60 games at home priced as a money-line favorite up to -150, they have won 41 of these contests. They have also beaten 12 of their last 13 opponents with winning records. Injuries have hit this team hard with over 1000 combined games lost to injury already this season. While they miss their young phenom at shortstop in Wander Franco who is out with a hand injury, most of their injuries have been with their pitching staff. But Tampa Bay continues to be resilient and rely on their top-notch development system. One of the players who they have found off the scrap heap to develop into another positive contributor is Springs who takes the ball for manager Kevin Cash tonight. The coaching staff has helped rely on his change up more this season to great success. The left-hander has a 3-2 record with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 68 1/3 innings between stints in the bullpen and as a starter. The deeper sabermetrics do not expect him to continue to suppress runs to that degree — but with his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 3.26 moving forward, the numbers underneath the hood validate his outstanding pitching. He has been outstanding at home where he has a 1.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in 30 2/3 innings at home in ten appearances which includes five starts. After a stint on the injured list from lower leg tightness, he allowed only one earned run in 4 2/3 innings in his return start on Sunday at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6 games with Springs their starting pitcher when priced in the +/- 125 price range. They have also won 8 of their last 11 games when Springs is their starting pitcher looking to attend a team losing streak. He faces a Guardians lineup that has just a .247 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .672. Most of their best hitters hit on the left-side of the plate. Since June 1st, Cleveland ranks 29th in MLB in both weighted on-base percentage and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 6 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Guardians have also lost 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 road games with the total set in the 7-7.5 range. They counter with Bieber who has a 4-6 record with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 18 starts. The velocity on his four-seam fastball is down 1.7 miles-per-hour this season — and after striking out at an elite-level 33.1% of opposing hitters last season, he is only striking out 24.3% of hitters this year. In his three starts this month, Bieber has a 5.23 ERA. He has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in seven starts — but his WHIP and an opponent’s batting average rise to 1.22 and .253 marks in his 11 starts on the road. Cleveland has lost 6 of their last 9 games with Bieber pitching as an underdog priced up to +150. He faces a Rays team that has won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has lost 19 of their last 26 games against the Rays — and they have lost 7 in a row against them in Tampa Bay. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Rays (968) versus the Cleveland Guardians (967) listing both starting pitchers Jeffrey Springs and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. THE SITUATION: Seattle (54-45) has won three games in a row after their 4-2 win against Texas yesterday. Houston (64-35) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at Oakland on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after upsetting a divisional rival in their last game. Seattle has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row against an AL West opponent. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range, the Mariners have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Gilbert gets the start with his 10-4 record along with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sports a 2.42 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 11 starts as opposed to his 3.19 ERA and a .248 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Gilbert starting on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Houston has played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after losing their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two runs in their last contest. And while the Astros have scored only five runs in their last two games, they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three runs in two straight games. Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 18 of their last 27 home games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Urquidy who has a 9-4 record along with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 2.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 as opposed to his 4.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .271 on the road. The Astros have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Urquidy on the mound after losing their last game. He faces a Mariners team that has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* MLB Thursday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (917) and the Houston Astros (918) listing both starting pitchers Logan Gilbert and Jose Urquidy. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. THE SITUATION: Houston (64-33) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 7-5 loss to the A’s last night. Oakland (36-63) has won four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 40-19-6 in the Astros’ last 65 games after a loss — and the Under is 29-14-1 in their last 44 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 33-16-4 in Houston’s last 53 games on the road — and they have played 23 of their last 34 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. Garcia gets the ball with his 8-5 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics confirm his good season with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.53 and 3.58 moving forward. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average in .193 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in nine starts at home. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Garcia their starting pitcher on the road priced at -110 or higher. He faces an A’s team that has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight Unders against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. And while the A’s have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. At home, Oakland is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .202 batting average, .264 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .580. Montas takes the mound for the A’s to further his 3-9 record despite a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 18 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 batting average in 11 starts as compared to his 5.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .264 when pitching on the road. Oakland has played 10 of their 11 games Under the Total with Montas pitching at home — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total with Montas their starting pitcher with the Total set at 7 or less. The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Oakland has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AL West — and the Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Oakland. Lastly, Houston has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* MLB American League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (917) and the Oakland A’s (918) listing both starting pitchers Luis Garcia and Frankie Montas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (64-30) has won eight-straight games after their 7-4 victory against San Francisco yesterday. Washington (32-65) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 4-3 victory at Arizona on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Los Angeles has a 17-2 record this month — and their last seven victories have all been by more than one run. The Dodgers have won 45 of their last 62 games after winning their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 10 games after winning at least two in a row against division opponents. Los Angeles has won 53 of their last 68 games at home — and they have won 50 of their last 61 games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40%. And while the last time the Dodgers played the Nationals, they lost by a 1-0 score in Washington on May 25th — but they have then won 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. They give the ball to Gonsolin who has an 11-0 record with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 17 starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .130 in eight starts as opposed to his 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .204. The Dodgers have won 11 straight games at home when Gonsolin is their starting pitcher priced at -150 or higher as the money-line favorite. He faces a Nationals team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .217 batting average, .275 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .600 during that span. Washington has lost 37 of their last 52 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Nationals have lost 17 of their last 20 games even after yesterday’s victory. Washington has lost 36 of their last 51 games after winning their last game. The Nationals have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 7-8.5. They have also lost 46 of their last 60 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Espino who has an 0-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 58 innings this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.04 and 4.32 moving forward. The Nationals have lost 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a money-line underdog with Espino on the mound. He faces a Dodgers team that is scoring 6.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 batting average, .350 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .869 during that span. Los Angeles has won 41 of their last 52 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play — but when the Dodgers win, it is usually by more than one run. Los Angeles has played 69 games this season where they were priced above my -150 price threshold. They were upset in 23 of those games — and in their 46 victories in those circumstances, they covered the -1.5 Run-Line 41 times. Washington has been priced as a +145 money-line underdog 47 times this season. They pulled off the upset 15 times — and in their 32 loss, they failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line 26 times. 25* MLB National League Run-Line of the Month with the Los Angeles Dodgers (962) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Paolo Espino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. THE SITUATION: Chicago (43-45) has won two straight games and four of their last five after their 2-1 victory at Cleveland yesterday. Minnesota (49-41) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win against Milwaukee on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Chicago their road trip with this four-game series in Minnesota having won 12 of their last 17 games after winning their two previous games on the road against divisional opponents. They have also won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The White Sox have been a disappointment when considering that they entered the season with aspirations of making a deep run in the playoffs. Injuries have not helped their cause. But the most surprising aspect to this team has been their play at home where they are just 19-25 at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. Chicago has been a solid team on the road with a 24-20 record this season which is a pace that teams who typically win 90 or more games enjoy (which is where sports books projected future season win total). The White Sox have won 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. Furthermore, Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record. They send out Cueto who has a 3-4 record with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). The right-hander has been hot this month with a 1.29 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in two starts. He has been more effective on the road where he sports a 1.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in five starts as opposed to his 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257 in six games (five starts). His teams have pulled off 6 straight upsets on the road when he is starting as an underdog priced up to +150. Minnesota has lost 17 of their last 22 games after winning their last contest. They have also lost 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing two runs or less in their last game. They turn to Gray who has a 4-2 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 12 starts this season. The sabermetrics call for some regression with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.84 and 3.81 moving forward. The Regression Gods may already be making their presence known this month since Gray has been saddled with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he owns a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in seven starts as compared to a 0.86 WHIP and .198 opponent’s batting average in five starts. He faces a White Six team that has won 20 of their last 29 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The White Sox have been the money-line underdog 35 times — and they have covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 19 of those games with 13 upset wins and 6 one-runs losses where they covered the +1.5 Run-Line. The Twins have been the money-line favorite 51 times this season — they have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 32 of those games with 23 upset losses and another 9 one-run wins where they did not cover the -1.5 Run-Line. With the investment price of the variable +1.5 Run-Line not higher than my -150 price threshold, let’s invest and attack. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Chicago White Sox (969) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Minnesota Twins (970) listing both starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. THE SITUATION: New York (61-25) has lost two games in a row after their 11-6 loss at Boston on Sunday night. Cincinnati (32-54) has won four games in a row with their 10-5 victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YANKEES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: New York has bounced back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have won 14 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Yankees have won 4 straight games after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Furthermore, New York has won 26 of their last 34 games after an off day — including ten of those eleven circumstances this season. Now after being on the road for their last ten games, they return home to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time since June 29th. The Bronx Bombers have won 34 of their 43 games at home this season — and they have won 36 of their last 51 games at home after being on the road for at least seven days. The Yankees have also won 17 of their last 18 games at home when priced as a favorite at -200 or higher. They have won 13 of their last 16 games in Interleague play — and they are blasting National League pitching this season by scoring 9.2 Runs-Per-Game with a .328 batting average, .405 on-base percentage, and an OPS of 1.047 in their five interleague games this year. Cole gets the call on the mound tonight with the motivation to redeem himself from allowing five runs in six innings of work in his last start at Boston on Thursday. The ace right-hander has an 8-2 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 17 starts. The sabermetrics are bullish with month his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.98 and 2.95 moving forward. Cole comes back home to Yankee Stadium where he enjoys a 2.31 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .196 in eight starts as opposed to his 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .203 in his nine starts on the road. It is not common for Cole to be on the hill in games when the oddsmakers install the Total at 8.5 or higher — and his teams have won 16 of their last 20 games when he is the starter with the Total set from 8.5-10. Cincinnati has won five of their last seven games — but they have then lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning five or six of their last seven. The Reds go back on the road where they are only scoring 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .226 batting average, .278 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .616. They have lost 38 of their last 56 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 16 games on the road when priced as a money-line underdog from +175 to +250. They have also lost 40 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Ashcraft who has a 4-2 record with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nine starts. The rookie right-hander has been at his best at home where he sports a 2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .248 in five starts — but in his four starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 6.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .302. He faces a hot-hitting Yankees team that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven contests with a .291 batting average, .365 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .884 in that span.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying for this play. New York has played 54 games this season when they were priced as a money-line favorite higher than my -150 price threshold — and they have won and covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 27 of those games with 15 upset losses and 12 wins by just one run. The Yankees went through a stretch where I did not consider them reliable laying the -1.5 Run-Line — but in their last 10 games when priced above my -150 price threshold, they have covered the -1.5 Run-Line 6 times with only one victory by just one run. Cincinnati has played 40 games priced as a money-line underdog at +145 or higher — they have lost 23 of these games by more than one run with only five losses by one run. In their last 13 games when priced as a money-line underdog priced at +145 or higher, they have lost and not covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 8 of those games — and none of their losses have been by one run. Let’s lower the investment price on the Yankees by taking the -1.5 Run-Line option. 25* MLB Interleague Run-Line of the Month with the New York Yankees (976) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Cincinnati Reds (975) listing both starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcroft. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-35) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-6 loss to the Guardians yesterday in 10 innings yesterday. Cleveland (38-34) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning yesterday — but their bullpen blew the save by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to take the loss. The Twins have won 16 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 11 games after blowing a save in their last game. Minnesota has still won 6 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who has a 2-3 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in seven starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts at home. He has been outstanding this month with a 2-1 record along with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in five starts. While Archer does not pitch deep into games and usually does not pitch around the batting order more than twice, he will be supported by a Twins bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in the last seven days. His teams have won 6 of their last 9 games with him pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games when he is the starting pitcher for a day game. He faces a Cleveland team that ranks 18th in MLB in the weighted Runs Created metric when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage when at home against right-handed pitching. In their last seven games, the Guardians are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .227 Batting Average, .272 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .586. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Guardians had lost five straight games before winning two of their last three games in the middle three games of this five-game series. But Cleveland has still lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Bieber who has a 3-4 record along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 2.51 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in nine starts — but in his five starts at home, he has a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Bieber had a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .211 opponent’s batting average in nine starts but a 3.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Twins lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. Minnesota has still beaten the Guardians in 6 of their last 8 meetings.

FINAL TAKE: All of the Twins last five losses have been only one run — and four straight Cleveland victories as well as five of their last six games have been by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month is with the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) versus the Colorado Avalanche (31) in Game Six of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (64-29-10) staved off elimination on the road in the Avalanche’s Ball Arena with their 3-2 victory in Game Five on Friday. Colorado (71-22-7) has lost two of the last three games in this series but still holds a 3-2 lead.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: I expected this to be a seven-game series before the puck dropped for Game One — and now that Tampa Bay return home to Amalie Arena after foiling the Avalanche’s attempt to lift the Stanley Cup on Friday, I sill expect the title to be decided in the seventh game. This has been a close series with both teams owning a blowout win and Colorado winning both games that went into overtime. Now the experience of this corps group of Lightning players really begins to kick in. Tampa Bay has played 70 playoff games over the last three seasons while winning the last two Stanley Cups. They have won 8 of their last 11 games after a win. They have also won 18 of their last 25 games after winning their last game by just one goal — and they have won 10 of their last 12 games after winning their last game on the road by one goal. Additionally, the Lightning have won 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Tampa Bay has held the Avalanche to just seven goals in the last three games of this series — and lowering scoring games is their recipe for success. The Lightning have won 50 of their last 69 games after playing two straight Unders. Back at home, Tampa Bay has won 41 of their last 57 games — and they have won 9 straight home games in these playoffs. Playing at home gives head coach Jon Cooper the advantage of the last line change which is critical in this series. Cooper has two elite defensive forward groups — and at home, he can play the Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Alex Killorn group against Colorado’s top forward line featuring Nathan MacKinnon. That group enjoyed a 77% expected goal share last round against the New York Rangers. This team also has a big edge between the pipes in goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who stopped 35 of the 37 shots he faced in Game Five. He posted +0.42 Goals Saved Above Expectation — and he has a +14.12 GSAx in this postseason. After the disastrous Game Two when the Lightning defense let him down, Vasilevskiy has stopped 106 of the 113 shots he has faced for a .934 save percentage. In his ten playoff games at home this year, last year’s Conn Smythe Award winner for winning Most Valuable Player in the postseason has a 1.82 Goals-Against-Average and a .944 save percentage. Avalanche goalie Darcy Kuemper is a weak link for his team — and he demonstrated that on Friday by letting the slap shot from Jan Rutta slip between his arm and his pads to let the first goal in. The expected goals metrics projected that shot only had a 1.2% chance of scoring. Kuemper posted a -0.9 GSAx mark in Game Five — meaning he played below the expectation of the average goaltender. Kuemper now has a -4.8 GSAx in these playoffs — Colorado is trying to win their first Cup in the MacKinnon and Cole Makar era with below-average goaltending. In his six starts on the road in the playoffs, Kuemper has a 2.98 GAA and a .894 save percentage. This is the first Stanley Cup finals for the MacKinnon/Makar core after not even reaching the Western Conference Finals before this season. They are still learning how to win playoff games against elite competition — and now they face the pressure of blowing a 3-1 lead. Furthermore, they may not be at full strength for Game Six with Valerie Nichushkin questionable after leaving Game Five with an injury — and Andre Burakosky has not played since Game Two of this series after missing Friday’s contest.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 9 of their last 13 games in the Stanley Cup Finals. They have won 34 of their last 51 playoff games when trailing in the series — including nine of their last twelve games during their recent three-year run. They have also won all 4 of their potential elimination games in the postseason in the last three seasons. And in their last 6 Game Sixes in a playoff series, the Lightning have won 5 of these games. 25* NHL Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (32) versus the Colorado Avalanche (31). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (42-31) has won five of their last seven games — and 20 of their last 26 — after their 5-3 victory against the Dodgers yesterday. Los Angeles (44-26) had been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: This red-hot Atlanta team has won 15 of their last 18 games after a victory — and they have won 12 of their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. They have also won 11 of their last 13 games at home. They give the ball to Strider who will have something to prove after giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings of work in his last start against San Francisco on Tuesday. Not only was that the worst start of the season for the rookie, but those six runs matched the six runs he had allowed in his previous eight appearances for the Braves spanning over 30 innings. The fireballer has a 3-2 record this season with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 47 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 2.72 moving forward. Atlanta has won 3 of his 4 starts this season. Los Angeles has lost 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Gonsolin who has a 9-0 record with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts. The sabermetrics suggest he is overachieving with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.75 and 3.74 moving forward. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he has a 0.81 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and .118 opponent’s batting average in six starts at home — but those numbers rise to a 2.31 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .177 in his seven starts on the road. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Gonsolin had a 2.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in seven starts at home but a 3.86 ERA and 144 WHIP in eight games and six starts on the road. The Dodgers have lost 7 of their last 8 road games with Gonsolin on the mound and favored up to a -150 price. Los Angeles has also lost 6 of their last 7 games in Atlanta against the Braves.

FINAL TAKE: Ronald Acuna is getting the day off after leaving yesterday’s game when fouled a ball off his foot — but he should be available for pinch-hitting duty if necessary. The Dodgers are still without Mookie Betts who is on the Injured List with a rib injury. Atlanta has won 11 of their last 13 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Atlanta Braves (954) with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (953) listing both starting pitchers Spencer Strider and Tony Gonsolin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Colorado Avalanche (35) in Game Three of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-29-9) returns home trailing 0-2 in this series after a 7-0 loss on the road against the Avalanche on Saturday. Colorado (70-21-7) has won seven games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay does not get humiliated like they did on Saturday too often. They have won 8 straight games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have won 10 of their last 15 games after allowing five or more goals in their last contest. The Lightning have won 25 of their last 30 games at home after losing two games in a row — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row on the road. They return home where they have won 7 straight games in the playoffs — and they have won 40 of their last 55 home games when favored. They have also won 20 of their last 30 home games with the Total set at 6 or higher. Tampa Bay has also won 33 of their last 49 playoff games when trailing in the series. The fault from Game Two lies with the play of the Lightning’s defense rather than goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Returning home where head coach Jon Cooper gets to make the final line change will help. Tampa Bay has allowed only five goals in their last five games at home in these playoffs with a .971 save percentage. Darcy Kuemper remains a weak link for the Avalanche despite his shutout on Saturday. The Lightning only put 16 shots on him in Game Two. That will change. Kuemper has a .901 save percentage in 12 playoff games this year. Colorado has also lost 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 23 of their last 26 games at home when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. They have also won 18 of their last 20 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least four goals. 25* NHL Monday Television Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (26) versus the Colorado Avalanche (35). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528) in Game Six of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (68-35) can win the NBA Championship tonight after taking a 3-2 lead in this series with their 104-94 win at home against the Celtics as a 4-point favorite on Monday. Boston (65-40) returns home looking to stave off elimination after losing three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I suspect the market has not adapted enough to the fundamental change that has occurred in this series. After holding the Celtics to just 97 and then 94 points in the last two games in this series, the Warriors have found the answers as to how to best deploy their defensive efforts. Golden State is playing tight and aggressive defense that is making things uncomfortable for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics lack a consistent third scoring option or reliable 3-point shooting to counter these tactics. Let’s remember that Golden State ranked second in the NBA by holding their opponents to just 107 points per 100 possessions in the regular season — despite not playing with Draymond Green for a long stretch. Game Three of this series had 216 combined points scored after Game Two only had 195 combined points scored. The Warriors have held Boston to no more 88, 94, and 97 points in three of their last four games. The lone exception was in Game Three when Boston scored 116 points — fueled by a 47 to 31 edge on the boards. Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr immediately made his team’s effort on the boards a high priority. After pulling down 15 offensive rebounds in that Game Three, the Celtics have only managed 11 and then 8 offensive boards in the two games since after Kerr cajoled his team to tighten things up. The last two games in this series have had only 204 and 198 combined points scored — and Golden State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Warriors’ energy level of defense should continue with the extra day of rest — they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest including seven of those last ten occasions. Golden State was called for 28 personal fouls on Monday with Boston being whistled for only 16 fouls — and the Warriors have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being called for at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. Golden State is scoring only 105.2 points per game in this series with that average dropping to 103.7 PPG in the last three games. One of the dynamics that is contributing to this is the less of a role Jordan Poole is playing. Poole is a liability on defense which has compelled Kerr to give him less playing time. He is averaging just 17 minutes per game in the last two games after only being on the court for 14:17 minutes on Monday mostly to give Stephen Curry a spell. He did score 14 points in Game Five — but three of those points were that buzzer-beating 40-footer at the end of the third quarter. Golden State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 95 points in their last game. Additionally, the Celtics have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when committing at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge from two straight losses by double-digits to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (527) and the Boston Celtics (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Colorado Avalanche (12) in Game One of the Stanley Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (63-28-8) has won four straight games after defeating the New York Rangers by a 2-1 score to end the Eastern Conference Finals in six games. Colorado (68-21-7) has won five games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against Edmonton with their 6-5 victory on the road in overtime back on June 6th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After showing some rust to begin their series with the Rangers, the Lightning tightened things up on defense by only allowing five combined goals over their last four games to take control of that series. Tampa Bay gave up only one goal in each of their last three games. The Lightning have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than two goals in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has a .928 save percentage in the playoffs with +12.7 goals saved above expectation. Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Lightning expect to get back forward Brayden Point who has not played since Game Seven in the opening round of the playoffs against Toronto. Point is a great two-way player — but his offensive game is predicated on his speed which will be difficult for him to regain given his time off and the lingering effects of his leg injury. Colorado has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning their last game in overtime. The Avalanche have also played 4 straight Unders after allowing five or more goals in their last game. Colorado may be rusty after not playing for nine days after completing their sweep against the Oilers. Tampa Bay only scored two goals in each of the first two games last round which may have been a result of them not being sharp after an extended break after they swept Florida in the previous round. But the defensive pair of Cole Makar and Devon Toews should continue to play outstanding defense after holding the powerful Edmonton offensive attack led by Connor McDavid to just two goals in Games Two and Three of that series. Head coach Jared Bednar has the advantage of getting to play this pair against the Lightning top forward line of Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, and Steven Stamkos. This will present a problem for head coach Jon Cooper since his third forward line does not present much of a scoring threat. But that forward line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn has been stout on defense this postseason by allowing only 1.26 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes -- and they posted an expected goals share of 77.6% against the Rangers. The second forward line gets Point back — but I don’t expect him to regain his scoring prowess immediately. For the Avalanche, they are still without Nazem Kadri who had his thumb broken last round. He may return later in the series.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado won both regular-season meetings between these two teams — and Tampa Bay has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. 25* NHL Wednesday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Lightning (11) and the Colorado Avalanche (12). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Dodgers (982) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Angels (981) listing both starting pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: The Dodgers (37-23) have lost three in a row after their 2-0 loss to the Angels on Sunday. The Angels (29-33) have lost two of their last three games after a 4-1 loss at home to the New York Mets on Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE:

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (65-39) looks to rebound from their 107-97 upset loss as a 4-point favorite at home on Friday. Golden State (67-35) evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINTS: Boston only made 40% of their shots on Friday after nailing 48.7% of their shots on their home court in Game Three. Jayson Tatum had an off night — while he scored 23 points and made 4 of his 8 shots from behind the arc, he was just 8 of 23 from the field overall. The Celtics got out-worked on the boards. After dominating the Warriors in Game Three by out-rebounding them by a 47 to 31 margin, they let the smaller team grab 55 boards to their 42 boards on Friday. Don’t blame Robert Williams III who pulled down 12 rebounds and had a +/- rating of +6 when he was on the court. The silver lining for Boston was that the Time Lord played 31:27 minutes in Game Four despite his nagging knee injury — and now he gets two days off to prepare for Game Five. Boston has been consistently reliable after subpar efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Boston has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss. Furthermore, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a low-scoring game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The extra day of rest should help as this series gets back to the two days off between games. Boston is the younger team and the extra day should help them be fresh again where they can use their energy to get back to controlling the boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with two days of rest. The Celtics have been one of the best teams playing away from home all season — and in the postseason. They are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Boston is also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State got yet another superman effort from Stephen Curry who scored 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting on Friday. Can he keep carrying the Warriors in seemingly every game? As we predicted, head coach Steve Kerr gave Kevon Looney more court time on Friday to address the rebounding disadvantage — and he responded with 11 boards in his 28:10 minutes up action, up 11 1/2 minutes from Wednesday. But the problem with Looney on the court is that he offers nothing on the offensive end — so Boston head coach Ime Udoka should have his team prepared to expose this liability. A lingering concern for the Warriors is that Draymond Green continues to provide little as well — he missed six of his seven shots for 2 points in Game Four after scoring only 2 points in Game Three. Green’s +/- rating on Friday was 0 — and the Warriors simply cannot win this series if they are not outscoring the Celtics when he is on the court. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset victory on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset win on the road by 10 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is comfortable playing the Warriors in their building as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road against them. And in their last 7 games when avenging a double-digit loss at home to their opponent, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (525) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:08 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980) listing both starting pitchers Taijaun Walker and Patrick Sandoval. THE SITUATION: The New York Mets (39-22) have lost three of their last four games after their 11-6 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels in the second game of this series. Los Angeles (29-32) has now won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five or more runs in their last game. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing three or more straight Overs. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog priced up to +150. The Mets are dealing with a tired bullpen that has pitched nine innings in the last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after their bullpen has pitched nine or more innings in their last two games. New York’s receivers surrendered six runs last night — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when their bullpen allowed four or more earned runs in their last game. Walker gets the ball for them tonight. He has a 3-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 9 starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 4.58 moving forward. His ERA on the road rises to a 3.41 mark -- and that coincides with the disparate home/road splits he was saddled with last season. While Walker had a 3.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in 16 games (15 starts) at home, those numbers rose to a 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .258 in 14 starts on the road. The Mets have played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Walker the starting pitcher and priced up to +150. Walker’s teams have also played 7 straight Over when he is the starting pitcher in Interleague play. Walker faces an Angels team that ranks sixth in baseball in both weighed On-Base Percentage and weighted Runs Created (wRC) when playing at home against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles got Mike Trout back in the lineup last night — and he bashed two home runs to lead the scoring attack. The Angels banged out five home runs last night — and they have played 3 of their 4 games this season Over the Total after hitting four or more home runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 18 of their last 25 games at home Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. This team has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total in June. They counter with Sandoval who has a 3-1 record along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The left-hander is walking too many batters — and both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.31 and 4.08 moving forward. His ERA bumps up to 3.00 in five starts at home this season. Last season, Sandoval had a 3-6 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 77 innings — but in his 48 1/3 innings at home, those numbers rose to a 3.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The Angels have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with Sandoval pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Mets are hitting right now — they are scoring 5.7 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .270 Batting Average and a .754 OPS over that span. New York has played 4 straight Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (979) and the Los Angeles Angels (980). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (62-28-8) has won the last three games in this series after their 3-1 victory in Game Five on Thursday. New York (62-31-8) looks to stave off elimination to force a decisive Game Seven tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lightning have gained control of the series by being content in lower-scoring games where they control puck possession and limit the turnovers that were giving the Rangers odd-man rushes in the first two games of this series. Tampa Bay has only allowed two goals in the last two games — but they have scored only five goals at even strength in those two contests. Just as in Game Four, the final Lightning goal was an empty-netter with under a minute to go. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last contests. Now the Lightning return home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have also played 7 straight home games Under the Total in the playoffs in closeout opportunities. Andrei Vasilevskiy has six shutouts in those seven close-out games for the Lightning. After having some early timing issues in this series with his blocker, he has been sensational during the three-game winning streak. In his seven starts at home in the playoffs, Vasilevskiy has a 1.79 Goals-Against-Average and a .946 save percentage. New York has seen the Under go 41-19-1 in their last 61 games after scoring two goals or less in their last game. They have also played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after losing their last game at home. The Rangers have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set at 5.5. Furthermore, New York has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. The Rangers have allowed only 36 goals at five-on-five even strength in the playoffs despite the analytics projecting them to give up 3.53 expected goals per 60 minutes. Goalie Igor Shesterkin is the reason for New York's overachieving — he has +16.5 goals saved above expectation at five-on-five even strength in the postseason along with a .929 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent -- including all four of those circumstances this season. 25* NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Rangers (53) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (54). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (66-35) has lost three of their last five games after their 116-100 loss on the road against the Celtics as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday in Game Three of the NBA Finals. Boston (65-38) has won five of their last seven games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr identified that the biggest issue his team had in Game Three was getting beat on the boards. The Celtics enjoyed a 47-31 edge on the glass on Wednesday — and while they will likely continue to have an edge in that area, the Warriors need to work harder to minimize that advantage. There are some lineup moves that Kerr can make. But, first and foremost, Golden State needs a better game from Draymond Green after he only pulled down four rebounds before fouling out in what was his worst game in the postseason. Green later defined his own play as “soft,” which is a pretty good indication that he will be addressing the problem himself. In hindsight, it looks like he got caught up in all the technical fouls and officiating talk earlier in the week. He should play better tonight and help his team get into a better offensive flow after dishing out three assists and scoring two points in Game Three. As a point forward, he generates 6.1 Assists-Per-Game with that mark rising to a 7.1 clip in the playoffs. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. Additionally, Golden State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Boston nailed 48.3% of their shots in Game Three which was the second-best shooting mark in their last seven games. They are also making 43% of their shots from behind the arc in this series — I do expect that to decline. The Celtics also took 24 shots from the free-throw line on Wednesday was seven more attempts than what Golden State got after the officials were on notice about the Green drama after Game Two. Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 50 home games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 home games after a point spread victory. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home with the Total set in the 210s. Another concern for Boston tonight is the health of Robert Williams III. The Time Lord was great in Game Three with the Celtics outscoring the Warriors by 21 points with him on the court. But this will be the first time since Game Seven against Miami last round when Williams will be playing on just one day of rest. The knee injury that has slowed him down for months may give him troubles tonight — he was only able to play 14:42 minutes in that crucial game against the Heat on May 29th, almost two weeks ago.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss on the road. 25* NBA Friday Television Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (523) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (50) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (49) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: New York (62-30-8) had been on a four-game winning streak but has now lost two in a row after their 4-1 loss on the road against the Lightning on Tuesday. Tampa Bay (61-28-8) has won eight of their last ten games after leveling this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York returns home to Madison Square Garden where head coach Gerard Gallant gets the advantage of the final line change. This will allow Gallant to get Mika Zibanejad away from the Lightning forward line of Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn, and Brandon Hagel who stymied Zibanejad in the two games in Tampa Bay. Zibanejad scored a goal in both Games One and Two of this series — and his line scored four of the eight goals the Rangers generated at even strength five-on-five. New York has won 9 of their last 12 games after losing their last game by three or more goals — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row. Furthermore, while the Rangers did not score more than two goals in the two games in Tampa Bay, they have then won 13 of their last 19 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. And while they allowed seven goals in those games on the road, New York has then won 18 of their last 24 games after allowing at least three goals in two straight games. The Rangers return home where they have won 9 straight playoff games this postseason — and they have won 44 of their last 64 games on home ice. During their eight-game winning streak at home, they have scored 4.38 Goals-Per-Game and held their guests to just 2.00 Goals-Per-Game. They have also won three home games in a row in the playoffs after suffering a loss on the road. Igor Shesterkin is outstanding on home ice where he had a 2.04 Goals-Against-Average and a .948 save percentage in the playoffs after putting up a 1.85 GAA and a .940 save percentage at home in the regular season. Tampa Bay has lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning eight of their last ten games. They will be without forward Brayden Point once again tonight after he was declared out with his lower-body injury despite participating in skating drills the last few days. Andrei Vasilevksiy has not been nearly as effective away from home both in the playoffs and in the regular season. In 30 regular-season games, he had a 2.77 GAA and a .912 save percentage — and he has a 3.03 GAA and a .906 save percentage in eight road starts in the postseason. The Lightning have lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road when favored. They have also lost 4 in a row against the Rangers in Madison Square Garden.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers may be undermanned with centers Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil both game-time decisions. Even if neither play, I like New York to take a 3-2 series lead. The Rangers have won 10 of their last 13 games at home when avenging a loss — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from a loss by one goal on the road. 25* NHL Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (50) versus the Tampa Bay Lightning (49). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521) in Game Three of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (64-38) looks to rebound from their 107-88 loss on the road against the Warriors as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Golden State (66-34) has won six of their last eight games while evening this series at 1-1.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston accomplished what they needed in Game One by winning that game and seizing home-court advantage. Head coach Ime Udoka may have kept a few of his planned tricks in this series up his sleeve in Game Two. The Celtics may have been dealing with some fatigue after needing seven games to get by both Miami and Milwaukee in earlier rounds of the playoffs. The two full days off between games will help as this team returns home. Boston has covered the point spread after all 6 of their previous losses in the postseason -- and they have an averaging winning margin of +15.5 Points-Per-Game in those six contests. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 95 points in their last contest. Boston needs to tighten things up in protecting the basketball after committing 18 turnovers in Game Three. The Celtics average 13 turnovers per game on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in the playoffs after committing at least 14 turnovers in their previous game this postseason. Stephen Curry scored 14 of his 29 points off turnovers in Game Two — so his scoring will probably go down if — and when — Boston turns the ball over fewer times tonight. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the playoffs after a straight-up win this postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on the road in these playoffs after a straight-up win. The Warriors are 10-1 at home in the postseason — but they are just 3-4 on the road straight-up. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when playing for the second time in five days. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opportunity to take the Celtics with the narrative that Boston has played poorly on their home court with “just” a 5-4 record in these playoffs. They still have a 33-17 record with a +6.7 PPG at home this season. Boston has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games since March after a loss. And in their two games in the playoffs played at home after a loss, the Celtics beat Milwaukee in Game Two of that series by 23 points before beating Miami in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals by 20 points. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 opportunities to host the Warriors at TD Garden. 25* NBA Wednesday Television Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (522) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (521). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (29-24) has won two of their last three games after their 5-1 victory at Miami on Sunday. Colorado (23-21) has lost four in a row and nine of their last 12 games with their 8-7 loss at home to Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: San Francisco is only five games over .500 — but they have a net run differential of +0.5 Runs-Per-Game. They have won 42 of their last 60 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest — and they have won 22 of their last 30 games after an off day. They return home to Oracle Park where they have won 45 of their last 62 home games against teams with a losing record. Manager Gabe Kapler gives the ball to Carlos Rodon who has a 4-4 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 10 starts. The deeper sabermetrics are very encouraging on the left-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting a 3.25 and 3.30 ERA respectively moving forward. Rodon has 70 strikeouts in 55 innings. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Rodon is clicking on all cylinders with an organization in the Giants that consistently coaches up its pitching staff. Rodon has done his best work at home where he owns a 2.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .205. His teams have won 10 of their last 15 home games with Rodon pitching as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher. He should thrive against a Rockies team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games after left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has lost 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least eight runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Rockies have lost 8 straight games after an off day — and they have lost 16 of their last 21 opening games to a new series. Now Colorado goes back on the road where they have lost 15 of their 22 games this season — and they have lost all 7 road games when they are an underdog priced at +150 or higher. They are scoring just 3.0 Runs-Per-Game on the road with a .242 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .638. The lineup misses Kris Bryant who will likely remain on the Injured List through the All-Star break. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Marquez who has a 1-5 record along with a 6.71 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 10 starts. That ERA is the highest in MLB for qualified starting pitchers. He has already served up 18 homers in his 55 innings. It has been even worse on the road where he has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in three starts. What is concerning for the ground-ball pitcher is that why had a 3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .214 in 18 starts last year, those numbers sky-rocketed to a 5.38 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .277 in 14 starts on the road. The Rockies have lost 5 of their last 6 games with Marquez on the mound as a money-line underdog. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has also lost 22 of their last 28 games against San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends do not take into account the -1.5 Run-Line we are laying in this game. Scoring is down — and so are my investments in Run-Line favorites with teams like the Yankees and Astros not doing well covering these spreads. The Giants have played 13 games where they were favored at a price higher than my -150 threshold — while they have lost six of those games (not so good), all seven of their wins have been by more than one run (that’s good). Colorado has been priced as a money-line underdog of +145 or higher 12 times this season — they have only have two upset wins in those games but all ten of their losses have been by multiple runs. This is when we want to invest in Run-Lines: San Francisco should win — and when they win (and the Rockies lose), it is usually by more than one run. So, let’s lower the investment price with the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the San Francisco Giants (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Colorado Rockies (909) listing both starting pitchers Carlos Rodon and German Marquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (37) and the Edmonton Oilers (38) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Colorado (66-21-7) took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 4-0 shutout victory on Thursday. Edmonton (57-33-6) returns home having been on a four-game winning streak before the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Avalanche offensive attack kept rolling in Game Two as they scored at least four goals for the fifth time in their last six games. They have scored 12 goals against the shaky Oilers defense after their 8-6 victory in Game One of this series. Colorado has played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after winning their last two games at home. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by two or more goals. They peppered Edmonton goalie Mike Smith with 40 shots — that was the fifth straight game where they generated at least 34 shots. The Avalanche have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after putting at least 33 shots on net in three straight games. Now they go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Colorado has only scored two goals in their nine Power Play chances in this series which is a bit lower than their 31.6% success rate with the man-advantage in the postseason. With Darcy Kuemper questionable with the upper-body injury that compelled him to exit early in the second period in Game One, it will likely be Pavel Francouz between the pipes again tonight. This will be his sixth career start in the playoffs on the road — and he has just a .901 save percentage in these six previous appearances on the road in the playoffs. Edmonton has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by more than one goal. The Oilers have also played 12 of their last 15 games at home Over the Total after a loss by three or more goals. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total. They have scored at least four goals in four of their last five games on home ice. They have also played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent by more than one goal. 25* NHL Saturday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (37) and the Edmonton Oilers (38). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (35) versus the New York Rangers (36) in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (59-27-8) looks to bounce back from their 6-2 loss on the road against the Rangers on Wednesday. New York (61-28-8) has won five of their last six games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIGHTNING WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Tampa Bay had been on a six-game winning streak before losing to the Rangers to begin this series. The eight-day layoff they earned after sweeping Florida probably left them rusty. But now after a spirited practice yesterday, the Lightning should be laser-focused tonight — and this team has been extremely reliable in bounce back situations. Tampa Bay has won 17 straight games after a loss in the playoffs -- and it all starts with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. Last year’s Conn Smythe winner was the starting goaltender for all 17 of those playoff victories — he has allowed on 28 goals in those contests for a sensational 1.47 Goals-Against-Average and a .942 save percentage. He has five shutouts in those 17 games as well. Additionally, the Lightning have won 40 of their last 52 games after a loss by three or more goals — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by four or more goals. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has won 38 of their last 55 games after allowing at least five goals in their last contest. In the second games of a new playoff series, head coach Jon Cooper’s team has won 14 of these last 17 showdowns. They have also won 6 straight games when trailing in the series. New York has scored 17 goals in their last three games after head coach Gerard Gallant called them out for their lackluster effort in Game Five of their series with Carolina last round. They have won each of their last three games by at least three goals — but they have then lost 6 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row by two or more goals. They have also lost 24 of their last 38 games at home after scoring at least four goals in their last contest. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, they have lost 6 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has won 12 of their last 13 games on the road when avenging a loss on the road by two or more goals. 25* NHL Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Tampa Bay Lightning (35) versus the New York Rangers (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (22-27) has won three in a row and five of their last seven after their 8-4 upset win in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Arizona (25-27) has lost five of their last seven games after their 6-0 shutout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: If you need more evidence that this Pittsburgh team is finally on the right path — how about them coming off a three-game sweep in Los Angeles against the Dodgers? The excellent farm system of the Pirates’ organization is finally starting to pay off. Pittsburgh has one of the better closers in the game right now in David Bednar — and they have only committed one error in their last four games after going the last two games in LA with a fielding mistake. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 9 games after not committing an error in two straight games. Now after completing their six-game road trip, they return home where they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The starting pitching staff remains an issue — but J.T. Brubaker is a fine starting pitcher who has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 10 starts despite an 0-4 record. In four starts at home this season, his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.86 and 1.33 marks. Last season in 11 starts at home, Brubaker had a 3.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .231. He had a 5.36 ERA last season — but that number dropped to a 3.86 ERA when playing teams with a losing record. Brubaker always had potential if he could stop serving up gopher balls, Last year, he allowed 2.06 home runs per nine innings. This season, that home run rate has plummeted to a 0.94 clip per nine innings. The Pirates have won 3 of his 4 starts at home this season — and they have won 3 of his 4 starts when he is pitching with five or six days of rest. He should have success against this slumping Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .229 Batting Average, .294 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .647. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 22 games after getting shutout in their last game — and they have lost 31 of their last 36 road games after not scoring more than two runs in their last game. Now after playing their last nine games at home, they go back on the road where they have lost 6 of their last 7 games when favored. The Diamondbacks should not have lost 110 games last year given their roster — but this is still a mediocre team at best in the beginnings of a long rebuild. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last seven games at home. They have also lost 50 of their last 60 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 road games this season with the Total set at 8-8.5. They counter with Merrill Kelly who has a 3-3 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.24 and 4.08 moving forward. In his four starts on the road, his ERA rises to a 5.40 mark. His disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season where he had a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .244 opponent’s batting average in 13 starts at home but a 5.18 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .291 opponent’s batting average on the road. After a jump in velocity that carried over from spring training, the speed on his four-seamer has dipped again — and he has been saddled with 9.00 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP in his last four starts. He has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts — and he has only 13 strikeouts in those 17 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 16 road games with Kelly pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates are scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games — and they have won 5 in a row against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Underdog of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers J.T. Brubaker and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Edmonton Oilers (27) plus the +1.5 Puck-Line versus the Colorado Avalanche (28) in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (57-31-6) closed out their series with Calgary in five games after their 5-4 win in overtime on the road on Thursday. Colorado (64-21-7) has won three of their last four contests with their 3-2 victory on the road against St. Louis to end that series in six games on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OILERS PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I don’t play money-line favorites (or underdogs) when the favorite is priced higher than -150 in both MLB and the NHL. I am comfortable then looking at the Run-Line in baseball — but I usually shy away from the puck line in hockey given the impact of the potential pulled goalie at the end of the game. However, when I think there is a live dog — and the Puck-Line price is no higher than -150 — then I am willing to take my chances with the empty net for a team that could win the game outright (and the Oilers could certainly score when pulling their goalie to tie the game or pull within one goal). I think Edmonton is underrated — and this series could be the platform for Connor McDavid to become a mainstream superstar. McDavid has 26 points in 12 games already in these playoffs — and he has simply sensational at times in these playoffs. The Oilers did just win four straight games against a good Calgary team. They have now won six of their last seven games in the playoffs. Edmonton has won 19 of their last 26 games after a win — and they have won 18 of their last 24 games after a victory against a divisional opponent. The Oilers have also won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game. They stay on the road where they have won 5 of their last 7 games — and they have won 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. And despite some sketchy moments at times from goalie Mike Smith, the 40-year-old has posted an impressive +8.8 goals-saved above expectation in the playoffs to go along with his .927 save percentage. Smith is the better goaltender in the mini-battle between himself and the Avalanche’s Darcy Kuemper. The 32-year-old has a -3.0 goals saved above expectation mark and a .904 save percentage in these playoffs. He is a weak link for this team that did not take a step forward at this position when they let Philip Grubauer sign with Seattle in the offseason. Colorado has also suffered a big injury on their blue line with the season-ending injury to Samuel Girard early in Game Three against the Blues.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has been consistently priced above my -150 threshold for the entire postseason. But in their last nine playoff games, they have won only four of these games by more than one goal. They have been upset twice despite being a big favorite — and they have won three of those games by just one goal. In the Oilers’ last 14 defeats, they lost six of those games by just one goal. With the +1.5 Puck-Line priced right around -150, that is where I find the value — and I prefer getting paid on an Edmonton one-goal loss then take my chances (at the bigger price) that they pull the upset. 25* NHL Puck-Line of the Month is with the Edmonton Oilers (27) plus the +1.5 Puck-Line versus the Colorado Avalanche (28). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (22) with the money-line versus the New York Rangers (21) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-26-8) looks to rebound from their 5-2 loss in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers on Saturday. New York (59-28-8) has won three of their last four games to force this Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Carolina should play better tonight as they have won 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by three or more goals. They have also won 6 straight games after allowing five or more goals in their last game. The Hurricanes actually won the expected goals battle in Game Six by a 3.81 to 2.38 margin but were stymied by goalie Igor Shesterkin who made 37 saves. But now Carolina returns home where they are 7-0 this postseason. The Hurricanes have outscored their guests in the playoffs by a 25 to 8 margin — and they have outscored the Rangers at home at PNC Arena by a 7-2 margin. It is not just the energy the team gets from playing in front of their home crowd in Raleigh — head coach Rod Brind’amour has a big advantage in getting to choose the final lines to battle against the Rangers. Jordan Staal is a great defensive forward — and his line has contained the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad line to zero points in the three previous games in Carolina. The Hurricanes have won 44 of their last 58 games at home when favored — and they have won 14 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Additionally, Carolina has won 28 of their last 36 playing games when favored — and they have won 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. They should get better goaltending from Antti Raanta tonight after he was pulled early in the second period on Saturday. Raanta has won all six of his starts at home in the postseason while posting a 0.97 Goals-Against-Average and a .965 save percentage. The Rangers have lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road. They are not getting the same level of scoring production away from Madison Square Garden. The Artemi Panarin line has not registered a point in the three games in Carolina. New York has lost 6 straight games as an underdog — and they have lost 38 of their last 52 games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Rangers have also lost 6 of their last 7 games played against the Hurricanes in Raleigh.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has won 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least five goals. 25* NHL Monday ESPN Game of the Month is on the money-line on the Carolina Hurricanes (22) with the money-line versus the New York Rangers (21). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510) in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (62-37) looks to rebound from their 111-103 upset loss at home to the Heat as an 8-point underdog on Friday. Miami (64-35) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series by forcing the decisive Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: It is telling that Boston has been identified as the favorite tonight despite the historical success of home teams in Game Sevens. The Celtics have the better numbers in most categories in this series: Offensive Efficiency, assist percentage, rebounding percentage, effective field goal percentage, fast break points, made 3-pointers, and free throw attempts. The only areas where the Heat have the edge over the Celtics are in points off turnovers, second-chance points, and points in the paint. Boston went into the locker room trailing by a 48-46 score — and then somehow Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to take only seven shots from the field in the second half in the 8-point loss. I expect that to be corrected by this duo playing in their sixth Eastern Conference Finals series in their young careers. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — including covering the point spread after all five of their losses in the postseason. They have an average margin of victory in the playoffs after a loss by +12.1 Points-Per-Game — and they beat Miami by 20 and 25 points after their two previous losses to them in this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not scoring more than 105 points in their last game. Interestingly, while the Celtics have just a 5-4 record at home in the playoffs, they have a 6-2 straight-up record on the road including two victories in Miami in this series. Boston is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games when favored. Miami got a surprising performance from Jimmy Butler on Friday as he scored 47 points while converting 16 of 29 shots from the field and nailing four 3-pointers (not really his game). This was surprising not because I have any doubts about Butler’s talents but because he seemed to be so negatively impacted by the knee inflammation that kept him out of the second half in Game Three. Butler scored only 19 points on 7 of 32 shooting in Games Four and Five combined. I just remain skeptical that Butler can put two superhuman performances in a row on that bum knee — especially when he played 45:57 minutes on Friday. Kyle Lowry has also been slowed with his hamstring but stepped up to score 18 points on Friday after scoring only 3 points on 1 of 12 shooting in Games Four and Five. Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J. Tucker have also been slowed by injuries in this series. And then there is Tyler Herro who has not played since injuring his groin in Game Three. The Heat lose -2.8 points per 100 possessions with Herro on the court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games playing without him. Even if he tries to take the court tonight, his effectiveness remains very much in doubt considering his injury usually puts NBA players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games at home after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat in Miami. I don’t the Heat — I am just skeptical that they can come close to replicating the performance in Game Six given their injury situation. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (509) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the New York Rangers (14) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Carolina (61-25-8) took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 3-1 victory at home on Thursday. New York (58-28-8) returns home to Madison Square Garden hoping to stave off elimination.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: All five games in this series have finished Under the Total with only one of the games even seeing five combined goals. Both teams are averaging just 1.8 Goals-Per-Game in this series. The Hurricanes have not scored more than three goals in seven straight contests. The Under is 3-1-1 in Carolina’s last 5 games after a win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory at home against a Metropolitan Division rival. The Under is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after not allowing more than two goals in their last game. Head coach Rod Brind’amour is getting outstanding goaltending from Antti Raanta who has a 1.99 Goals-Against-Average and a .931 save percentage in the playoffs. Raanta has +4.6 goals saved above expectation in the postseason. But now the Hurricanes go back on the road where they have not scored more than two goals in five playoff games — and they only scored two goals in their two previous games at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. Carolina has now played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total in the second round of the playoffs. New York has played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Under is also 39-18-1 in their last 58 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has a 2.05 Goals-Against-Average at home in six playoff games with a .949 save percentage. In 30 games (29 starts) at home in the regular season, Shesterkin posted similar numbers with a 1.85 GAA and a .940 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers only had 15 shot attempts in Game Five. They have only posted more than 28 shots once in this series. With these teams now very familiar with each other, expect another lower-scoring game tonight. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (13) and the New York Rangers (14). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool reached the finals of the European championship with their 3-2 victory at Villarreal which gave them a 5-2 aggregate win in the semifinals. Real Madrid rallied from losing the first leg at Manchester City by a 4-3 score to level the aggregate score in regulation time in the second leg before scoring in extra time to take the 6-5 aggregate victory. This match is being played on a neutral field at the State de France in Saint-Denis, France, just north of Paris.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Real Madrid has had a difficult road to reach the finals with a grueling knock stage that involved matches against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and Man City. But Los Blancos consistently lost the expected goals battle in those contests — and they have a -1.9 net expected goals differential in those six knockout stage contests. Defense is an issue for manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they allowed 1.8 expected goals per match in their six knockout stage matches. They have resisted a clean sheet in any of the six legs in the knockout stage. Furthermore, much of the magic with this Real Madrid side came at home. Against Man City in the second leg of the semifinals, the Cityzens seemingly had the match in hand with a 1-0 lead before Rodrygo scored in the 90th and then 91st minute to force extra time where the sublime Karim Benzema scored the game-winner on a penalty kick in front of an ecstatic crowd. Los Blancos posted a +0.75 expected goals differential when playing at home — but they had a -0.16 net expected goals differential in the Champions League when playing on the road. Liverpool settled for second place in the English Premier League by one point — but they remain very motivated to bring home this trophy. They have scored at least two goals in 12 of their 15 Champions League matches. Additionally, they have only lost once in their last 12 Champions League matches (an irrelevant second-leg loss to Inter Milan where they still won the aggregate score comfortably) — and they won 10 of those matches. They have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 Champions League matches — and they have scored at least three goals in six of those contests. The Reds’ defense has also been solid as they have only conceded more than 1.0 expected goals once in their six matches in the knockout stage.

FINAL TAKE: This one is personal for Mo Salah who had to leave the Finals of the 2018 Champions League against this same Real Madrid side after receiving a cheap shot from Sergio Ramos that separated his shoulder. Salah has commented that losing the 2018 final was the biggest professional disappointment of his career. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506) in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (63-35) has lost two straight and three of the last four games in this series after a 93-80 loss at home as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston (62-36) took a 3-2 lead in the series with the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After scoring only 82 points and shooting a season-low 33.3% from the field in their 20-point loss on the road in Game Four, Wednesday’s Game Five was the time that the Heat needed to step up. Instead, they made only 7 of their 45 shots (16%) from behind the arc and set a new standard in futility with their shooting for the season by making only 31.9% of their shots in scoring just 83 points in their seven-point loss. I don’t Miami is a fraud — my conclusion is that injuries have simply robbed the team of its offensive identity. Everything starts with Jimmy Butler — exemplified in Game One when he scored 41 points while getting to the free-throw line 18 times. The Heat scored 118 points against the top statistical defense in the NBA. And head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team shoot plenty of shots from behind the arc as they demonstrated by their dominant start to Game Three where they seized a 26-point lead in the second quarter. Then Butler re-injured the knee that has been nagging him for much of the season. Miami holds on to win Game Three — and Butler returns to the court to play in the last two games. But he is a shell of himself. In Game Four, he scores only 6 points on 3 of 14 shooting — and he is no drive in his game as he fails to get to the free-throw line even once. He was a bit better on Wednesday — but he still only got to three free throw line four times in scoring 13 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Since the injury, he has made only 7 of 32 shots for a 21.9% field goal percentage. Kyle Lowry was brought in during the offseason to be the second or third scoring option in the starting lineup — but he is far from 100% with the Hamstring that kept him earlier in the playoffs. He did not score in Game Five after scoring just 3 points in Game Four. Lowry has made only one shot in the last two games — and he has taken just 12 shots in those two contests. Tyler Herro won the Sixth Man of the Year Award by scoring 20.7 Points-Per-Game coming off the bench — but the Heat have been without their second-leading scorer since he injured his groin in Game Three. Even if he returns tonight, his effectiveness is in doubt since his injury usually puts players on the shelf for two to four weeks. Bam Adebayo has been fine — he scored 18 points on 8 of 15 shooting on Wednesday. But he is not a number one scoring option — and this clever Celtics team now knows to focus their energies on him. Miami has Victor Oladipo who can provide offense — but he scored only 3 points on 1 of 7 shooting coming off the bench in Game Five. Spoelstra cannot play Duncan Robinson because he is a liability on defense. That puts Max Strus in the starting line up who missed all nine of his shots from the field on Wednesday. Miami can’t flip a switch to make Butler or Lowry or Herro healthy again — and perhaps the flaw of this team is that they really need at least two of those guys performing well to complement Adebayo. Since Game Two of this series, the Heat are scoring 1.01 Points-Per-Possession — and they are scoring 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the halfcourt. Granted, they should make more than the 13 of 39 clip-on uncontested shots from the field they endured in Game Five. But this is now a team that is likely to struggle to score even 90 points when playing on the road against the elite Boston defense. Miami has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot 35% or better from the field. The Celtics have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. Back at home, Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: While Miami’s ability to score points is in doubt, their commitment to making things difficult for the Celtics on the other end of the court is not. They have held Boston to just 35% shooting from 3-point land — and the Celtics have not scored more than 103 points in each of the last three games of the series. Spoelstra will no longer be interested in pushing the pace in this series — this needs to be a slog for his team to have a chance. The Heat have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (505) and the Boston Celtics (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (71) and the St. Louis Blues (72) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Colorado (63-21-7) had won the previous two games in this series before dropping Game Five by a 5-4 score in overtime on Wednesday. St. Louis (55-27-11) now trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues rallied twice in Game Four — once by a 3-0 margin before tying the game in the third period and then once again after trailing by a 4-3 score with less than a minute left in the game. Head coach Craig Berube has had his team adopt the Vegas Golden Knights’ approach of heavy forechecking with the hopes of wearing down the Avalanche — and the strategy may finally be working. The Over is 18-7-1 in St. Louis’ last 26 games after a win — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, the Blues have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by one goal — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a victory in overtime. St. Louis is second in the playoffs with a Power Play success rate of 32.4%. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and the Over is 24-8-2 in their last 34 home games as an underdog. Now that Jordan Binnington is out for the rest of the postseason, the Blues are stuck with Ville Husson between the pipes. He has a -5.7 goals save below expectation in the playoffs. But if Game Five demonstrated anything, it is that Colorado is not getting quality goaltending from Darcy Kuemper. He allowed five goals on 30 shots. He has a subpar .904 save percentage in the postseason with a -2.5 goals saved above expectation mark. Goaltending is in large part a function of the play of the defense — and the Avalanche suffered a huge blow in the season-ending injury to Samuel Girard who has anchored one of the top-two defensive pairs for years, despite his being 23-years old. Colorado has played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least four goals in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing a game where both teams scored at least four goals. The Aves have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have played 21 of their last 32 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Colorado has scored 15 goals in the last three games with at least four goals in each game — and they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after scoring at least four goals in three straight games. The Avalanche have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the Western Conference Semifinals going back to their series last year with Vegas. They have played 5 straight Overs in the playoffs with the opportunity to close out the series. St. Louis has played 9 of their last 12 playoff games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 11 playoff games Over the Total when trailing in the series. These two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total including 5 straight Overs when playing in St. Louis. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Avalanche (71) and the St. Louis Blues (72). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Calgary Flames (68) versus the Edmonton Oilers (67) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Calgary (55-28-10) looks to snap a three-game losing streak in this series after dropping Game Four by a  5-3 score on Tuesday. Edmonton (56-31-6) has won five of their last six games while taking a 3-1 lead in the series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Calgary needs to stave off elimination with a victory tonight. They have won 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. They have also won 4 of their last 6 games after losing three in a row to a Pacific Division rival. The Oilers have won all six games in the postseason when they scored first — but the Flames can take some confidence in the fact they enjoyed 3-0 and 2-0 leads on home ice in the first two games of this series. Calgary is winning the five-on-five possession battle against Edmonton. They have outshot the Oilers — and they are playing on special teams. And they are winning 56.1% of the faceoffs in the series. They are losing because of the disappointing play of goaltender Jacob Markstrom. He has an .850 save percentage in this series — and he has a 5.28 Goals-Against-Average in the last three games. But this was a Vezina Trophy finalist because his strong play in the regular season. The Flames have won 25 of their last 35 games on home ice — and they have won 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Edmonton may be due for an emotional letdown after holding serve at home for Games Three and Four. The Oilers have lost 8 of their last 12 games after winning two straight games by more than one goal in their last game. They have also lost 12 of their last 14 road games after winning two in a row by multiple goals. Furthermore, Edmonton has lost 14 of their last 22 games after winning three in a row against divisional rivals. Even if Markstrom continues to struggle, the Oilers’ Mike Smith does not really offer them an advantage between the pipes. Smith played out of his mind in the opening round against Los Angeles — but he has a -1.0 goals save above expectation in this series with several terrible gaffes. Edmonton has lost 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have lost 7 of their last 10 road games as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton took Game Two of this series — but they have still lost 4 of their last 5 games played against the Flames in Calgary. The Flames have won 35 of their last 51 games when favored. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Calgary Flames (68) versus the Edmonton Oilers (67). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Golden State (64-32) has won six of their last seven games after their 109-100 upset victory on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday. Dallas (60-38) has lost four of their last six games after falling behind 0-3 in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors’ zone defense is stifling the Mavericks in this series. Dallas is making only 33.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but they continue to live-or-die by the 3 as they are attempting 52% of their shots from the field from distance. The Mavericks’ lack of size is hurting them in this series as well — they are only pulling down 18.2% of their missed shots. Golden State won the rebounding battle by a 47-33 margin on Sunday — and they have outrebounded Dallas by at least 13 boards in each of the games in this series. The Warriors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 boards. And while Golden State has covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mavericks have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They have played 4 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in three straight games. Furthermore, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. The Mavericks stay at home where the Under is 37-13-1 in their last 51 games —and they have played 20 of their last 27 home games when favored. They have also played 25 of their last 32 home games Under the Total when the Total is set in the 210-219.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (567) and the Dallas Mavericks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Dallas (60-37) returns home down 0-2 in this series after their 126-117 loss on the road against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State (63-32) has won five of their last six games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas was in reach to pull the upset in Game Two — they entered the fourth quarter trailing by two points and remained within four points with under four minutes to go before getting outscored by a 19-14 margin the rest of the way. The Mavericks allowed the Warriors to nail 56.1% of their shots (14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc) which was tied for the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. But Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a point spread loss. Don’t underestimate this Dallas team — this is a cohesive team that usually makes more 3s while attempting 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc in the first two rounds of the playoffs. And they are led by a superstar in Luka Doncic who can put his team on his shoulders. After a 17-18 start, the Mavericks ended the regular season with a 35-12 run. They outscored Utah and Phoenix by +5.8 Points-Per-Game which was the second-highest mark after the first two rounds of the playoffs. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games when favored by up to six points. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Warriors go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Golden State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Dallas against the Mavericks. And in Dallas’ last 28 games when given the opportunity for same-season revenge, they have covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (564) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (45) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-27-8) has lost the first two games in this series after a 2-0 loss on the road against the Hurricanes on Friday. Carolina (60-23-8) has won three games in a row while taking a 2-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: New York has only scored once so far in this series — and they are scoreless in their last 116:05 minutes. But the Rangers have won 10 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row. They have also won 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than two goals in two straight games. They return home where they are 3-1 at Madison Square Garden in this postseason. They have scored four goals in their 12 Power Play opportunities in those four home games. New York has won 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 5.5. They have also won 6 of their last 8 home games when the underdog. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been outstanding when playing in front of the home fans this season. In 30 games (29 starts) at MSG in the regular season, Shesterkin had a 1.85 Goals-Against-Average with a .940 save percentage and five shutouts. After some shaky moments last round against Pittsburgh that may have been triggered by his Herculean performance in the opening game overtime marathon, Shesterkin has regained his regular-season form with 44 saves against 47 shots for a .936 save percentage in this series. He has +1.07 goals saved above expectation. Carolina has lost 5 of their last 8 games after playing a low-scoring game where no more than four combined goals were scored. The Hurricanes have now won 12 of their last 15 games — but they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 games. They have also lost 6 of their last 7 games on the road after not allowing more than one goal in two straight games. Carolina continues to get surprisingly good goaltending from Antti Raanta who has stopped 48 of the 49 shots he has seen in this series. But Raanta was at his best when playing at home in the regular season where he sported a 2.06 GAA and a .924 save percentage in 13 starts. In his 15 starts on the road, Raanta had a 2.87 GAA and a .906 save percentage. Furthermore, in his two starts on the road in Boston last round, he gave up four goals in both losses and had an .867 save percentage. The Hurricanes were winless in their three games on the road against the Bruins last round — and they were outscored by a 14 to 8 margin. The Carolina offense has not been much better than the Rangers in the postseason either. While New York ranks seventh of the remaining eight teams in expected goals scored at even strength, the Hurricanes rank sixth despite playing six of their nine playoff games on home ice.

FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have won 10 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have won 8 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the New York Rangers (46) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (45). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W8-D11-L18) needs a result to potentially pass Burnley to avoid relegation after settling for a 1-1 draw at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday. Brentford (W13-D7-L17) has won seven of their last ten matches after their 3-2 win at Everton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds has to play aggressively in this match — they trail Burnley by 13 goals in the differential department so they have to assume they need to register a victory to secure the three points since a draw by the Clarets at home against Newcastle would mean a draw in this match would not be enough for the Peacocks. The Whites did generate 2.37 expected goals (xG) against the Seagulls last week — but they surrendered 2.05 xG in the draw. Leeds is one of the worst defensive teams in the English Premier League. They have conceded the most Big Chances that have scoring likelihood of at least 35%. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches.  On the road, the Peacocks have allowed at least two goals in six of their last nine contests. They have allowed 2.05 expected goals allowed (xGA) in their 18 previous road matches. Brentford’s attack has been elevated since Christian Eriksen became a regular on the pitch. In those ten matches, the Bees have scored 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they rank fourth in Big Chances created during that stretch. Their xG of 1.99 in those ten matches suggests their improved scoring prowess is likely to be sustainable. In their last two matches, Brentford has scored six times with an xG of 5.20.

FINAL TAKE: In the reverse fixture at Leeds on December 5th, both teams scored twice in the 2-2 draw. Expect another higher-scoring contest with Leeds United desperate for the victory which should create scoring opportunities for Brentford in the counter-attack. The Bees will want to play hard in front of their home fans in their final home match in their first season back promoted in the English top flight. They also have a chance to finish in the top-ten with a result. 25* EPL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (39) and the Calgary Flames (40) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (53-31-6) looks to rebound from a 9-6 loss on the road against the Flames on Wednesday. Calgary (55-25-10) has won four of their last five games after taking a 1-0 lead in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: 40-year-old goaltender Mike Smith got exposed early by allowing three goals on the first ten shots he faced in Game One. While head coach Jay Woodcroft quickly announced that Smith will get back between the pipes tonight, he has allowed three or more goals in four of his eight starts in the postseason (with seven of those games against a defensive-minded Los Angeles team in Round One). Smith had a middling 2.81 Goals-Against-Average with a .915 save percentage in 29 regular season starts. But the Oilers demonstrated they can be explosive with their offensive attack in this series after scoring four goals on 11 shots during a torrid stretch in the second period when they rallied from a 6-2 deficit. Edmonton has played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. The Oilers scored six times despite failing to score from any of their four Power Play chances. After ranking third in the regular season with a Power Play success rate of 26.0%, they converted on 7 of their 19 Power Plays in the first round against the Kings for a crisp 36.8% success rate. Edmonton led all playoff teams after the first round with 22 goals when playing at even strength five-on-five. They ranked third in the first round with 3.46 expected goals at five-on-five. Calgary has played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Over is also 13-6-2 in their last 21 games after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and the Over is 5-2-2 in their last 9 games against an opponent that allowed at least five goals in their last game. The Flames generated 47 shots in Game One making it the sixth straight game where they peppered the net with at least 32 shots — and they have played 31 of their last 46 games Over the Total after playing at least five straight games where they had at least 30 shot attempts. Calgary is fourth in the postseason with just 2.23 expected goals allowed at five-on-five — but they just played seven games against an offensively-challenged Dallas team. Goalie Jacob Markstrom has a .918 save percentage in these playoffs — but his -0.4 goals saved avoid expectation suggests he is actually underachieving baseline expectations.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. These two teams averaged 8.25 combined goals scored in their four regular-season meetings — including a 9-5 victory for the Flames in their final regular-season meetings on March 26th. Wednesday’s score may not have been as much of an outlier as it first appeared — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games against each other. The Over is also 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these teams when playing in Calgary. I think both teams should get to at least 3-3 before the end of regulation tonight. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (39) and the Calgary Flames (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (22-13) has won two of their last three games after their 7-3 victory at Miami on Sunday. Atlanta (16-19) has lost two of their last three games after a 7-3 loss at home to San Diego yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BREWERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Milwaukee should continue their momentum tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win by four or more runs. They have also won 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new series. They return home where they are 10-4 this season while scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 games at home when priced as a -110 or higher money-line favorite — and they have won 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They give the ball to Peralta who has a 2-1 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in six starts. The 25-year-old offers a good example regarding the need to parse past the frontline numbers. He is one of many starting pitchers who struggled out of the gate due to the abbreviated spring training. In his last four starts, Peralta has a 2.08 ERA with 28 strikeouts and only five walks in 21 2/3 innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.03 and 3.10 respectively. The right-hander comes off a strong season last year where he posted similar numbers. In 144 1/3 innings of work, Peralta posted a 10-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP — and he enjoyed a 2.88 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .158 in 16 games (15 starts) at home last year. Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 15 games at home with Peralta pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He should pitch well against this Braves team that is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Atlanta has just a .216 Batting Average with a .273 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .653. Atlanta is just 6-8 on the road this season — and they have lost 16 of their last 23 road games when priced as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while the Braves have played six straight Overs, they have then lost 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They counter with Ian Anderson who has a 3-1 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in six starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not as bullish on Anderson’s start — his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.92 and 4.55 moving forward. In 24 starts last year, Anderson had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP — but his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 4.38 and 3.96 which is pretty accurate measure of what he is doing now. Looking under the hood, there are some troubling signs for the right-hander. After striking out 29.2% of the batters he faced last year, that number dropped to 23.8% last year. Now this year, Anderson is only striking out 17.1% of the batters he has faced. And he continues to walk too many batters with 12.4% of the batters has faced getting a base-on-balls. Now he faces a Brewers team that scores 5.9 Runs-Per-Game against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have won 12 of their last 14 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee opened as a money-line favorite in the -140 range — but with the news that Ronald Acuna remains out with an injury, the price has been slowly rising. I have a personal guideline to not endorse money-line favorites in MLB (and the NHL) if priced over -150 because I don’t like the expectation of needing to win these plays more than 60% of the time to break a profit. I find it to be helpful as to how to navigate a daily card. But I need to have deadlines as well. If it is late afternoon and I am still seeing -150 or lower prices, then I am comfortable in endorsing even if the price at some of the shops has moved higher than -150. I have no idea what the price will be when the game starts. If you end up having to invest more than -150, I still recommend the play. It’s a guideline, not a mandate sent down by the Gods from Mount Olympus. These two teams last played on May 8th when Atlanta won by a 9-2 score. The Brewers have won 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss by six or more runs. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Milwaukee Brewers (908) versus the Atlanta Braves (907) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:37 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Calgary Flames (2) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (49-33-6) snapped a two-game losing streak in this series with a 4-2 victory on Friday. Calgary (53-25-10) hosts Game Seven on their home ice at the Scottiabank Saddledome.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Stars head coach Rick Bowness reunited Jason Roberson on the top line with Joe Pavelski and Rope Hintz on Friday — and Hintz scored a goal that Pavelski and Roberson assisted on while adding a second assist in the victory. The final goal was scored on an empty netter. But now back on the road, Calgary head coach Darryl Sutter can match up whatever two defensemen he wants against the top line that features Pavelski with the home team’s right to make the final line change. Dallas has scored only four times in the three previous games in Calgary in this series. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Stars’ last 4 games on the road. Dallas is getting outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger in this series. Oettinger has a .954 save percentage in the first six games — and he has a +7.3 Goals Save Above Expectation. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Stars’ last 8 games as an underdog — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Calgary has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by more than one goal. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after not scoring more than two goals in their last game. The Flames have scored only four goals in their three games at home with three of them scored in their 3-1 victory in Game Five. While Oettinger’s efforts in this series are getting the most attention, Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom has been outstanding as well with a .945 save percentage and +4.1 goals saved above expectation. The Flames have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games in the playoffs when favored. Calgary has also played 7 of their last 10 playoff elimination games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Of the 24 combined goals scored in the six games in this series, only 13 of them have been scored at five-on-five even strength. The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams when playing in Calgary. 25* NHL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Stars (1) and the Calgary Flames (2). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (59-35) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 113-86 upset victory as a 2-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix (71-23) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas has steadily improved their defensive play in this series. After allowing the Suns to score 125 Points-Per-Game with a 1.32 Points-Per-Possession scoring rate, they have contained Phoenix to just 90 PPG with 1.05 PPG scoring rate in the last four games of this series. Granted, three of those four games were played in Dallas — but Phoenix scored 110 points in Game Five back at home with a 49.4% field goal percentage. The Suns average 115.5 PPG on their home court — so Dallas’ effort in Game Five was still pretty good. Phoenix began the playoffs by making at least 50% of their shots in their first eight games — including nailing at least 60% of their shots in two contests — while averaging 114.8 PPG during that span. The Mavericks have found a way to slow down Chris Paul who is only scoring 9.3 PPG in his last four games. Jalen Brunson has proven himself a gritty defender against Paul who is struggling against his physicality. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Mavs have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. Dallas made 45.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Mavericks have been outrebounded by at least six rebounds in all six games in this series — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Dallas goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range. Phoenix has played 12 of their last 16 game Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Suns have also played 12 straight Unders after a loss on the road, in general. Additionally, Phoenix has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponents by at least five boards in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (527) and the Phoenix Suns (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:37 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (77) and the Carolina Hurricanes (78) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30-5) won their third game in the last four games in this series with their 5-2 victory at home on Thursday. Carolina (57-23-8) returns home to Raleigh to host this Game Seven.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins took a 2-0 lead entering the third period on Thursday before taking a 4-1 lead just over halfway through the period. The Hurricanes pulled their goalie early in an attempt to get back into the game — and Boston scored an empty netter before Carolina added the final goal with an empty netter. All six games in this series have seen at least six combined goals — and the Total has risen to 6 in the last two games after the first four games had a Total of 5.5. This situation offers us good value for Game Seven. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Boston has also played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least two goals in the third period of their last game. The Bruins have taken 37 minor penalties in this series which has helped contribute to five power-play goals by the Hurricanes. But in this Game Seven when the referees tend to swallow their whistles, Boston is not likely to not have their Power Play Kill Unit as active. Jeremy Swagman will once again be between the pipes for the Bruins after stopping 23 of the 25 shots he faced on Thursday. In his four starts in this series after taking over for Linus Ullmark after the first two games, he has a 2.51 Goals-Against-Average and a .913 save percentage. The rookie did his best goaltending on the road during the regular season where he posted a 2.08 GAA and a .926 save percentage in 23 games (22 starts) as compared to his 2.81 GAA and .898 save percentage in 19 games (18 starts at home). Carolina has been held to two goals in three of their last four games since Swayman became the goaltender for the Bruins in this series. They have played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Hurricanes have also played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total at home when playing their third game in five days. Carolina returns home where they have only given up four goals in the previous four games in this series. Antti Raanta has been outstanding in those three home games as he stopped 74 of the 76 shots he has faced for a .974 save percentage. In his 13 regular-season starts at home, Raanta had a 2.06 GAA and a .924 save percentage. Raanta has been better than I thought he would be in this series playing for the injured Frederik Andersen. Raanta has a 2.46 GAA and a .926 save percentage in his five starts while getting injured in Game Two and not playing in Game Three.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 17 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. Boston has played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 6 or higher. 25* NHL 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Bruins (77) and the Carolina Hurricanes (78). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION:  Boston (57-34) has lost two of their last three games in this series after a 110-107 upset loss at home to the Bucks on Wednesday. Milwaukee (58-34) took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston lost a heartbreaker on Wednesday — they had a six-point lead with just over two minutes to go on their home court. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a crucial second free throw late — but Bobby Portis pulled down the offensive rebound and scored the go-ahead winning basket. The Celtics still had a chance to score — but then Jrue Holiday made two crucial blocks to ice the game for the defending NBA champions. Excruciating for this Boston team — but this is a veteran group despite the young ages of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who already have tons of playoff and Game Seven experiences. They should be resilient and respond tonight. Boston has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston did shoot 51.2% from the field on Wednesday — but they only made 10 of their 31 shots (32%) from behind the arc so they are not coming off an outlier effort from distance. Back on the road, they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a dog overall. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home after a straight-up win. Milwaukee outrebounded the Celtics by a 49-36 margin which was the third-straight game where they won the rebounding battle in this series by at least six boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outrebounded by their last three opponents by at least five boards. The Bucks got another superhuman performance from Antetokounmpo in Game Five as he scored 40 points on 16 of 27 shooting. But he missed Khris Middleton who plays such a crucial role in the offensive attack for this team. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, Milwaukee is just 14-14 in their last 28 games without Middleton — and they are just 12-15-1 ATS in those contests. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their45 games on their home court this season. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by no more than six points. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Boston may get Robert Williams III back for this game which will help their defensive efforts. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Boston will be confident tonight — they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Bucks and they are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Underdog of the Year is on the Boston Celtics (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.