At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record.  New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense stalled without Rodgers last year as they averaged only 20.0 PPG last year while generating a mere 305.7 total YPG with those marks ranking 21st and 26th in the league. With Rodgers back under center, both of those marks should significantly amp up — especially at home. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at Lambeau Field with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Rodgers no longer has Jordy Nelson as a weapon but the veteran has lost a step — he was essentially replaced by a big target in tight end Jimmy Graham who caught 10 TD passes last year. It has been a number of years since Rodgers has had a prolific pass-receiving tight end in his arsenal. But perhaps the biggest upgrade this team has made on offense was the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. The former Miami Dolphins head coach was the offensive coordinator for the Packers from 2007-2011 when Rodgers was enjoying some of his best statistical seasons. Remember that Rodgers has enjoyed an incredible 40-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio over his last sixteen starts — and he loves facing Vic Fangio-coached defenses against which he has an 11-1 TD-to-Interception ratio in his last five games against the Bears with Fangio as their defensive coordinator. Rodgers will battle a Bears’ defense that was a Top-Ten unit last year that has just added linebacker Kahlil Mack into the mix. With Mack just joining the team, it is unclear how many snaps he will play in this game. The Chicago defense is good — but their stats were padded by an offense that was designed to burn time off the clock to keep them off the field. The Bears averaged 29.2 seconds per play which is the second longest in the league. Chicago had no Pro Bowlers on their defense last year. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against familiar conference opponents. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. Trubisky saw only 39 snaps in the preseason. And don’t be surprised if the Bears significantly amp up their pace of play on offense given Helfrich’s background as a Chip Kelly protege at Oregon.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between two teams that will be experiencing big improvements with their respective offenses. Expect this to be a sloppy game which will likely result in triggering more scoring opportunities. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Houston (89-53) has won seven straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-3 score against the Red Sox.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Houston has not allowed more than three runs in eight straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Keuchel who is 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.27 mark. Houston has played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Keuchel pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to -125 range. He faces a Red Sox team that is hitting only .249 over their last seven games with an OPS of .709 in those games with both stats far below their .268 batting average and .774 OPS for the season. Boston (97-46) has played 22 of their last 31 home games when playing with revenge from a loss in their last game with their opponents. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Porcello who is 16-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP that both project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.84 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has seen the Under go 11-3-2 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Expect playoff intensity for this nationally-televised game — and that should translate into a low-scoring game with two good starting pitchers on the mound. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-1) is already playing their third game of the season after they lost to Houston last week at home by a 45-27 score as a big 25.5-point underdog. Hawai’i (2-0) is also playing their third game of the year after they upset Navy at home last week by a 59-41 score as a 13.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Rice has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Struggles on the defensive side of the football were expected for this team that lost their top-five tacklers from last year’s unit that was 112th in the nation by allowing 35.8 PPG. The Owls are allowing 36.5 PPG this season along with 480.5 total YPG. But first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren may have his answer at quarterback in senior graduate transfer Shawn Stankavage from Vanderbilt who was showed promise last week by completing 20 of 31 passes for 204 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Rice offense to 443 yards of offense which was more 110 more YPG than what they averaged last season. The Owls now go on the road where they have played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Rice has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when facing a team outside Conference USA. Hawai’i seems right at home back orchestrating their old Run-and-Shoot offense that their head coach Nick Rolovich used to operate for then head coach (and now Hamilton Tiger-Cats head coach) June Jones. The Rainbow Warriors generated 526 yards last week against the Midshipmen defense — and it is like the old days for this team so far this season as they are scoring 51.0 PPG while generating 569.0 total YPG for their unique scheme. Hawai’i has then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald is loving executing this offense which gives freedom to both the quarterback and the four wide receivers to improvise their routes based off coverage. McDonald completed 30 of 41 passes last week for 428 yards while throwing six touchdown passes with zero interceptions. But the defense remains a work in progress after losing six of their top nine tacklers from a group that allowed 33.9 PPG while ranking 114th in the FBS by allowing 458.8 total YPG. In their first two games this year, Hawai’i is allowing 37.5 PPG while giving up 532.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. And in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents, Hawai’i has played 10 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: With this being the third game for both teams, the offenses should be up-to-speed regarding understanding and operating their schemes. Neither of these teams can stop anybody — so this should be a high-scoring game with Hawai’i likely leading the way. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). THE SITUATION: USC (1-0) enters this game coming off a 43-21 win over UNLV last week as a 24.5-point favorite. Stanford (1-0) also won their opening game of the season with their 31-10 win over San Diego State as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL MINUS THE POINTS: Stanford’s defense flexed their muscles by holding the Aztecs to only 263 yards of offense. The Cardinal returns six starters from a group that gave up too much yardage but still tied for 34th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.7 PPG. Stanford was 9-5 last year but finished their season with a loss to these Trojans in the Pac-12 Championship Game by a 31-28 score before then losing to TCU in the Alamo Bowl by a 39-37 score. Four of the five losses for the Cardinal last season were by a field goal or less — so they were very close to a very nice season. They return nine starters on offense including junior quarterback K.J. Costello who completed 21 of 31 passes for 332 yards with four touchdown passes. The team is led by senior Bryce Love who is a Heisman Trophy candidate after using for 2118 yards last year despite being hobbled with a host of injuries last season. Love rushed for only 29 yards last week on 18 carries — and Stanford as a team managed only 50 rushing yards but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Cardinal host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. USC has been inconsistent under fourth-year head coach Clay Helton as they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. Too often, this USC team plays uninspired — and that is a risk against a Cardinal team they defeated twice last year with a 42-24 win on September 9th before following that up in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans finished 11-3 last year after losing to Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl by a 24-7 score. Those eleven wins included a fortunate three net close wins in games decided by one possession. Thirteen starters return but this group lost a lot of talent to the NFL including their QB Sam Darnold who will be starting on Monday for the Jets. USC is relying on a true freshman quarterback in J.T. Daniels — and this will be his first game playing in a hostile environment with it being a nationally televised night game to boot. As it is, the Trojans are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog which includes their last three road games when getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has had this game circled all off-season given their two losses to USC last year. Both those games were away from home. Playing this game in Palo Alto with an experienced quarterback facing a true freshman should make a huge difference this team that is better-coached under David Shaw than the Trojans under Helton. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) began their season by pulling the upset on the road at UCLA last Saturday by a 26-17 score as a 14-point underdog. Miami (OH) (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-28 upset loss at home to Marshall as a 1-point favorite last week. This game will be played at the home of the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium for these neighboring Ohio rivals.

REASONS TO TAKE MIAMI (OH) PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati is likely to experience a letdown after traveling out west to shock the Bruins in the opening game of the Chip Kelly era out there. The Bearcats were actually outgained by -2 yards in that game but controlled the time of possession against the up-tempo Kelly offense by keeping the UCLA defense on the field for 34:21 minutes of that game. But Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati returned 12 starters from last year’s 4-8 squad that was outgained by -77 net YPG in American Athletic Conference play last year. The Bearcats offense was just tied for 110th in the FBS by scoring 20.9 PPG which is perhaps why second-year head coach Luke Fickell decided to tap redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder as his starting quarterback over senior QB Hayden Moore. Ridder completed 13 of 24 passes but managed only 100 passing yards. Cincy lacked game-breakers on offense last year — and generating only 304 yards last week against UCLA did little to alleviate those concerns despite sophomore running back Michael Warren II rushing for 142 yards while needing 35 carries to get there. The Bearcats allowed only 306 yards last week which might speak more to the state of the Bruins’ offense implementing Kelly’s schemes (and their senior transfer quarterback Wilton Speight left that game with an injury) than it did about the quality of their defense. Cincinnati allowed at least 31 points eight times last season while ranking 100th in the nation in 3rd Down defense by allowing opponents to generate first downs in 43.3% of those plays. Moving forward, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I don’t love this team playing away from home for the second straight week — especially with a rookie QB. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field. Miami (OH) should come out inspired as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss at home as the favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of those last four situations. This Warhawks team may be a sleeping giant with sixteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 5-7. Fifth-year head coach Chuck Martin has to see his team through in close games as they are an awful 5-18 in one-possession games in his tenure after last week’s 7-point loss. While it would be wrong to excuse many of the mental mistakes that have cost this team in these close games, the Regression Gods do tend to make appearances for teams that suffer a disproportionate number of losses in close games. This is a better team than their record has indicated over the last few seasons — which is why they might explode with a very nice season before things are said and done. They outgained the Thundering Herd in that loss with their senior QB Gus Ragland completed 25 of 46 passes for 357 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions. The Redhawks rushed for only 87 yards last week despite their top five rushers returning from last year’s team along with Maurice Thomas who missed last year with an injury. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. And despite their disappointing record in one-possession games, they have covered the point spread in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have a final chip on their shoulder with them being motivated to avenge a 21-17 upset loss to the Bearcats last season as 3.5-point home favorites last September 16th. It will be very easy to Martin to motivate his team this week — and defeating this Cincinnati team will go a long way to make up for the close losses that they have suffered even to begin this season. 25* CFB Non-Conference Revenge Game of the Year Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (656) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (655). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (6-4) won the meeting between these two teams last Sunday in their 31-23 win at home over the Blue Bombers as a 3.5-point favorite. These two teams meet ago in Banjo Bowl in the traditional home-and-home series over Labour Day concludes in Winnipeg.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE BOMBERS PLUS THE POINTS: Winnipeg has lost three straight games which puts them in a desperate situation in this contest as they cannot afford to fall further behind in the West Division standings. The Blue Bombers outgained the Roughriders in that game by a 369 to 341 yardage mark but were stymied by a -2 net turnover margin along with poor special teams play as they allowed a punt return for a touchdown. Winnipeg should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. The Blue Bombers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two straight games — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing their last two games on the road. Running back Andrew Harris did not practice on Wednesday but head coach Mike O’Shea claimed that “he should be good” to play on Saturday. Harris rushed for 158 yards in that game last week to help Winnipeg out-rush Saskatchewan by +102 net yards — and the Blue Bombers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Winnipeg has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven opportunities to earn some same-season vengeance from an earlier loss that year. Saskatchewan has won three straight games as well as five of their last seven games. But the Roughriders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Now, this Saskatchewan team goes back on the road where they are just 2-2 while being outscored by -4.0 PPG. And while they surrendered only 165 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 200 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Winnipeg entered the 4th quarter last week with a 20-17 lead before being outscored by a 14-3 margin. The Blue Bombers can take some solace that they outplayed the Roughriders for much of that game. The urgency for this football team should lead them to a decisive victory in this immediate rematch in front of their home fans. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Year with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (656) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (963) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (77-63) snapped their three-game losing streak last night with their 7-6 victory in Arizona last night in the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRAVES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Atlanta has won 9 of their last 13 games after a win — and they have also won 17 of their last 25 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Braves have also won 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have won 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Atlanta has won 17 of their last 28 road games as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Gausman who is 14-14 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-seven starts. The right-hander has been outstanding since being liberated from Baltimore in his trade to Atlanta. Over his last ten starts, Gausman has a 2.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP — and he is 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA over his last five starts. Gausman has been more effective on the road all season where he owns a 3.63 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP in twelve starts. He allowed only one earned run in his last start (three runs total) against the Pirates — and his teams have won 5 of their last 7 games with Gausman pitching after not allowing more than one earned run in his last start. He faces a cold Diamondbacks lineup that is scoring 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .224 Batting Average with a .280 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .633 over that span. Arizona (75-65) has lost five of their last six games — and they have lost 11 of their last 16 games after dropping at least four of their last five contests. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have lost 18 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record while also losing 13 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Atlanta is 40-29 on the road). They counter with Corbin who is 10-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in twenty-eight starts. The right-hander sees his ERA rise to a 3.25 mark in his fourteen starts at home. And while Corbin has allowed only two earned runs in his last two starts, Arizona has lost 6 of their last 8 games with Corbin pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. He faces a Braves team that has won 9 of their last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta offers us a nice investment opportunity as an underdog in this situation. With the price for the Braves with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line dropping to my -150 price threshold in a majority of spots, that is my preferred play given these parameters. 25* MLB National League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Atlanta Braves (963) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (964) listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oakland A’s (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (87-52) snapped their two-game losing streak last night with their 5-1 victory over the A’s in the second game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE OAKLAND PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Yankees have lost 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have also lost 26 of their last 44 road games after a victory by at least four runs. Additionally, New York has lost 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Severino who is 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-eight starts this season. The right-hander has struggled with command with his two-seam fastball this summer — and that has resulted in a 6.32 ERA over his last ten starts. Severino has not been as effective away from Yankee Stadium this year as he sees his ERA rise to a 3.77 along with a 1.22 WHIP in fourteen starts. Oakland (83-57) has bounced-back to win 19 of their last 26 games after a loss — and they have also won 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at leas four runs. The A’s only managed two hits last night — but they have won 11 of their last 14 games after failing to bang out at least four hits in their last game and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Oakland has also won 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. The A’s remain very tough at home where they have won 24 of their last 33 games. They counter with Fiers who is 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The right-hander has a 2.93 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP over his last ten starts. He also has been better at home with the A’s and previously with the Tigers this year where he has an ERA of 2.89. Fiers teams have won 6 of their last 7 home games when he is making the start with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. His teams have also won 9 of their last 11 games when he is pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that is hitting only .214 batting average with a .302 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .699 over their last seven games. New York has also lost 7 of their last 8 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15. Lastly, because Oakland averages 4.8 Runs-Per-Game — and this helps place them into a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 66% effective since 1997. Home underdogs who score 4.4 to 4.9 Runs-Per-Game who have a batting average no better than .250 or their last twenty games facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or less have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 107 of the last 162 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: The A’s are live home dogs in the final game of this series. With the price of the valuable +1.5 Run-Line being below my -150 threshold, I consider that the much better investment opportunity. 25* MLB American League Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Oakland A’s (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Fiers and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Texas Rangers (920) versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: Texas (60-78) saw their two-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 3-1 loss to the Angels in the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Texas has won 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. The Rangers have also won 27 of their last 37 home games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Minor who is 10-7 with a 4.33 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in twenty-four starts. After a slow start, Minor has been much better over the summers months. Since June, Minor has a 3.21 ERA with 59 strikeouts and just 17 walks in 75 2/3 innings of work — and he was 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA in the month of August. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.30 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 as compared to his 5.79 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .267 in eleven starts. Texas has won 4 straight home games with Minor facing a team with a losing record. Additionally, Minor has only allowed two combined earned runs over his last two starts — and his teams have won 22 of their last 29 games when he has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight starts. He should thrive again tonight against this Angels team that is hitting only .215 over their last seven games with a .288 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .588 over that span. Los Angeles (67-71) has lost 41 of their last 60 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Angels have also not only lost 4 of their last 5 games after a win but they have lost 17 of their last 22 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival. This will be their sixth straight game on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 20 road games after playing at least five prior games on the road. Los Angeles has also lost 27 of their last 40 games on the road. They counter with Heaney who is 8-8 with a 4.09 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The lefty has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.94 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266. The Angels have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Heaney pitching with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range.

FINAL TAKE: Minor should give the Rangers a significant edge over the Angels relying on Heaney pitching away from home. 25* MLB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the money-line on the Texas Rangers (920) versus the Los Angeles Angels (919) listing both starting pitchers Mike Minor and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: I am not sure why the Seminoles are being given so much respect that they are laying a touchdown against one of high quality program like Virginia Tech. Jimbo Fisher jumped ship to Texas A&M because in large measure of the financial package the Aggies were offering him to make College Station his home. But I would think that Fisher stays at Florida State if he was encouraged about his team’s prospects moving forward. Only twelve starters return from last year’s team. The Seminoles were snakebite by injuries as they lost 39 games to projected starters being hit with the injury bug including their starting quarterback Deondre Francois. But when do the excuses end for a football program that has won only ten of their last nineteen games in ACC play? The Seminoles lost their usual handful of players from that last year’s group to the NFL. They have hired Willie Taggart to be their head coach after his success at South Florida got him the job at Oregon last year that he abandoned with the Seminoles offer. Taggart is installing new systems on both sides of the football so there will likely be growing pains. He inherits players that were used in a Run-Pass Option offense so these players may have some difficulties moving to Taggart’s up-tempo power spread attack. This is a tricky proposition for a team that is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the moths of September. The defense lost six of their top seven tacklers and return only four starters. Additionally, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover their last three home games with the over/under in that range. The Seminoles are also 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in conference action. Furthermore, Taggart-coached teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7.5 to 14 point range — and his teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 7  of their last 11 home games with the Total in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Virginia Tech returns twelve starters as well on a team that sees 3/4ths of the roster being sophomores or younger. But this young group are Justin Fuente players in his third year in Blacksburg — and teams often make a big jump in the third year of new coach’s tenure. The Hokies still have their rock on defense in defensive coordinator Bud Foster in his 32nd season as a coach. He oversaw a team that ranked 4th in the nation by holding teams to just 14.8 PPG. While it might be too much to ask of this group to replicate that feat, this should once again be an outstanding defense under Foster. The offense is led by sophomore QB Josh Jackson who made 13 starts last year. He passed for 2991 yards last year while posting a nice 20 touchdown passes to 9 interception ratio. A mediocre offensive line made things difficult for him last year — but both he and that line that returns three starters including a 6’7 beast at right tackle in Yoshua Nijman should be improved this year. This will be the first time since moving to Virginia Tech that Fuente will have his starting quarterback back under center. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech may have a ceiling regarding how good their football program can be — but they more consistently come close to hitting that ceiling year-after-year. Florida State seems to have taken a step back — particularly on their offensive line. The Hokies likely have the better defense in this game which should help them keep things very close even on the road. 25* CFB ESPN Game of the Month with the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (647) plus the points versus the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (648). THE SITUATION: Toronto (3-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday with a 25-22 upset loss in Montreal despite being a 5-point favorite. Hamilton (4-5) called from a 14-point halftime deficit to defeat Edmonton by a 25-24 score as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ARGONAUTS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto had won two straight games over Ottawa and British Columbia so it looked like the defending champions had turned the corner after a slow start to the season — but we were not surprised that they were upset by the Alouettes as we had Montreal in that letdown situation for the Boatmen. But the Argonauts should step up and play one of their best games of the season in their annual Labour Day clash with the Tiger-Cats. Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, the Argonauts have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an East Division rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a divisional foe. Toronto struggled to begin the season when their long-time veteran quarterback yet another injury that will keep him out for at least most of the year. But head coach Marc Trestman may have found his man under center in McLeod Bethel-Thompson who has played very well over his last three games. He completed 26 of 37 passes for 296 yards in that loss to Montreal. Trestman is a great coach who thrived as the head coach for the Alouettes before returning to the NFL where he coached the Bears for a couple of seasons. Trestman will have his team ready for what is a crucial contest for the second spot in the East Division playoff race as the second-half of the season begins. The Argonauts have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of September. And this Toronto team added a very nice piece on offense in Duron Carter who was cut by Saskatchewan last month in a move that had nothing to do with his ability on the field. Hamilton it outgaining their opponents by over +100 Yards Per Game but inconsistency and turnovers have kept them from a winning record. They outgained the Eskimos by a 557 to 362 yard margin last Thursday by a -2 net turnover margin helped Edmonton almost steal that game. Unfortunately, the Tiger-Cats are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 8 points or less. Hamilton has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home. This is the one-year anniversary since the T-Cats brought in June Jones as their head coach. While he has definitely turned this team around after inheriting a team that had lost their first eight games last year. But this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: While Jones has made a big impact with the Tiger-Cats, they are just 10-9 since he took over coaching the team. This is gut check time for the reigning Grey Cup Champions — expect a close game which makes all those points very valuable. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Year with the Toronto Argonauts (647) plus the points versus the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami returns seven starters from a very good defense that was 28th in the FBS by allowing 21.0 PPG. The Hurricanes lost five key contributors on the defensive line with two of those players leaving early for the NFL — but head coach Mark Richt had nice depth at this position last year and has been recruiting very well. Depth is an issue for the defensive line this season but that that is less of a concern for this opening game. The offense returns seven starters from a group that sputtered down the stretch of the season as they scored 41 combined points in losing their last three games. Injuries certainly played a role with that collapse in production with running back Mark Walton being the biggest loss. But that is the new reality for this team with him leaving early for the NFL — so Richt is counting heavily on a five-star freshman tailback in Lorenzo Lingard. Senior quarterback Malik Rosier completed just 40 of 89 passes for an unforgiving 44.9% completion rate — and he completed just 54% of his passes in a very inconsistent season. The Hurricanes have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when favored — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Richt is likely to play this game cautiously while relying heavily on his defense. His teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field laying less than 7 points. His teams have also played a defensive 34 of their last 55 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this included playing three of his last four games Under the Total in that situation. LSU returns five starters and 57% of the tackles from last year’s defense that was 14th in the nation by allowing only 18.9 PPG while also ranking 12th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG. This should remain a stout group with defensive coordinator still in the fold after he was given a huge four-year $10 million dollar deal which makes him one of the highest paid assistant coaches in the nation. The questions for this program will remain on offense where they ranked just 76th in the nation last year by scoring 27.2 PPG. The team is excited about the prospects of their new starting quarterback in Joe Burrow who is a graduate transfer from Ohio State. The 6’3 senior narrowly lost the Buckeyes’ QB job in the spring before deciding to transfer where he supposedly narrowly beat out sophomore Myles Brennan for this starting job. While Burrow was a highly touted coming out of college, he never got a whiff of possibly starting in Columbus until this spring — and he joined the Tigers with just the August practices to learn the offense. LSU lost Derrius Guice who moved on to the NFL which leaves the biggest hole at this position in my recent memory (going back ten years in my notes). Their leading returning rusher is Nick Brossette who ran the ball 19 times for 96 yards last year. Oy. The idea seems to be for this team that they will become more of a pass-first offense under new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. Oy — and Miami returns three starters from one of the best secondaries in the nation last year. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in September. LSU has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games outside SEC play. Lastly, Ed Orgeron-coached teams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lowing scoring game in this high profile showdown between to two programs with high aspirations who have more questions on the offensive side of the football than their typically strong defenses. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). THE SITUATION: Washington State Cougars (0-0) kicks off their season coming off an 8-5 campaign that concluded with a 42-17 loss to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl. Wyoming (1-0) played last Saturday in a dominant 29-7 win at New Mexico State where they were 5.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: We had a strong play on the Under in that Wyoming game last week and were rewarded with a dominant defensive effort from them as they held the Aggies to just 135 yards of offense and a mere seven first downs. Senior running back Nico Evans exploded with 190 rushing yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns while helping the offense control the Time of Possession for 40:41 in that game. Redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal looked steady under center replacing the departed Josh Allen as he completed 13 of 22 passes for 137 yards but did not turn the ball over. The Cowboys return home in a great position to build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Wyoming outgained New Mexico State by +315 net yards in that win — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards while also covering the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 175 passing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Wyoming has a significant home-field advantage in the high altitude of Laramie which is 7220 feet above sea level — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. This is a difficult opening game for a Washington State team that has lost five of their last six opening games under head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars have also lost seven straight opening games to a new season when on the road. This team’s fitness will certainly be challenged by the thin air in Laramie that they will not be familiar with. As it is, Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. The Cougars return just ten starters from last year’s group with Leach still officially noncommittal regarding who will replace their quarterback Luke Falk. This will be the first time in seven seasons where Washington State is unsettled at the QB position. Leach has a couple of jucos and a true freshman in the mix but it will likely be a graduate transfer in Gardner Minshew who came over from East Carolina who will get the call. The Cougars have been last in the FBS in five of the last six seasons in rushing attempts so this is not a program that is built to have the running game make things easier for their quarterback. The defense lost two of the key contributors last year in All-American defensive end Hercules Mata’afa and defensive coordinator Alex Brinch who oversaw significant improvement with that unit. Washington State has won sixteen of their last twenty games at home to demonstrate a strong home field advantage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against a non-conference opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has a significant advantage in having their first game under their belts. They return home with confidence that makes them a dangerous underdog in this game against a football team with a history of poor starts to a new season — especially on the road. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (0-1-2) earned their first point of the season last Saturday with their 0-0 draw at home against Cardiff. Everton (1-2-0) also earned a point last week with their 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton has scored two goals in each of their first three matches this season which may tempt some bettors to take the Over in this match with them being -1.0 goal favorites. But the metrics indicate that the Toffees have been very fortunate in front of the net with 20% of their shots reaching the back of the net — that is the highest mark in the English Premier League and likely due for regression. Everton will be without their top offensive player in this match in midfielder Richarlison who has scored three of the teams six goals this year. Richarlison earned a red card in that match last week against Cardiff who garnered him a three-game suspension. The Toffees still have Theo Walcott as a scoring option in the middle of the field — but while he has scored twice so far this season he has managed only four shots on net. I think he will struggle without Richarlison on the pitch — Everton blew their 2-0 lead against the Cherries when playing with ten players after his red card. The Toffees are also dealing with injuries on defense with three central defenders likely out for this match. That situation will likely compel manager Marco Silva to have his team play cautiously with the hopes of wearing down an inferior opponent. Everton scored only ten goals at home in Goodison Park in their last ten matches — but they gave up only nine goals in those matches for a low 1.9 combined goals average. Huddersfield is not a threat to score goals in this match. After finishing tied for the bottom in the EPL last year with just 28 goals, the Terriers have scored only once in their three EPL matches this year. They were also held scoreless in their Carabou Cup match on Tuesday this week which resulted in a 2-0 loss at Stoke City. In their scoreless draw with Cardiff last week, Huddersfield managed only five shots with just one on target. Their sixteen shots overall this year is last in the EPL. Their offensive cause is not helped with midfielder Jonathan Hogg suspended after earning a red card last week. Last year, the Terriers failed to score in twenty-one of their thirty-eight matches — and they only managed to score in six of their matches on the road. In their last eight matches on the road in the EPL last season, they scored only four goals — but they allowed only ten goals for a low 1.75 combined Goals-Per-Game average. Manager David Wagner is crafty and will likely have his team play very deep with the hopes of stealing a point in a scoreless draw. The team lacks a quality striker which often compels Wagner to use only forward on the pitch in exchange for more defenders. Huddersfield did have the eighth most clean sheets last year so a 0-0 draw is not out of the realm of the possibilities in his mind.

FINAL TAKE: Everton won both matches between these two clubs last year by 2-0 scores. With the Terriers attack looking to be even less potent this season and the Toffees significantly undermanned, expect another low-scoring contest. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Colorado State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing effort last week in their 43-34 upset loss at home to Hawai’i last Saturday despite being 17-point favorites in that game. Colorado (0-0) makes their debut this season after suffering a 5-7 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State was not ready to face the Rainbow Warriors new Run-and-Shoot passing offense as they surrendered 617 yards in that contest with 418 of those yards being in the air. The Rams defense has a new staff this season led by new defensive coordinator John Jancek who had served as the coordinator for the Tennessee defense from 2013-15. He had his unit switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme and has to be very frustrated with the efforts of his group. But that should have ensured an alert group of players in practice this week. As it is, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Colorado State can take some positives from that game as graduate transfer K.J. Carta Samuels looked very good running the offense. The former Washington quarterback completed 34 of 50 passes for 537 yards while throwing 5 touchdown passes. Overall, the Rams generated 653 yards against Hawai’i — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 375 yards. Moving forward, Colorado State is 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games when facing an opponent outside the Mountain West Conference. Colorado returns only ten starters from last year’s team that took a big step back from a 10-4 season back on 2016. The concern for sixth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is just how swift the decline was last season as not only did they lose seven of their nine games in Pac-12 play but they were outgained by -87 net YPG against those opponents. The team returns junior Steven Montez at quarterback but they must replace their running back Phillip Lindsay along with their top four starters at wide receiver and three straight starters on the offensive line. The defense struggled to stop the run last year as they allowed their opponents to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 109th by giving up 208.0 rushing YPG. They return four of their starters in that front seven — and they have to replace Isaiah Oliver in their defensive backfield who left for the NFL from a group that was 94th against the pass. This game will be played on a neutral field in Denver at the Broncos Stadium at Mile High — and the Buffaloes are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State should play much better this week on defense with the benefit of a game under their belts. It will be Colorado that will be dealing with opening day jitters and rust in this contest. While the Rams are very frustrated with their loss last week to Hawai’i, that all can be rectified by upsetting their in-state rival this week. Expect a close game where having the points will be quite valuable. 25* CFB Game of the Month with  Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (40-94) has won three straight games after they defeated the Blue Jays on Wednesday by a 10-5 score. Kansas City (42-91) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 9-2 win over Detroit on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROYALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Break up the Orioles with this winning streak! But Baltimore has played their last seven games at home. Now this team goes on the road where they have lost 20 of their last 24 games in the second-half of the season — and they have also lost 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Furthermore, the Orioles have lost 12 of their last 14 games in Kansas City against the Royals. Baltimore has not responded well after off days as they have lost 15 of their last 16 games after having a day off. The Orioles have also lost 21 of their last 29 games after scoring at least five runs — and they have lost 40 of their last 53 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Baltimore has not committed an error in four straight games — and they have lost 27 of their last 36 games after not committing an error in at least two straight games. They give the ball to Cashner who is 4-12 with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he owns a 5.14 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .303 in twelve starts. The Orioles have lost 6 straight road games with Cashner facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Royals offense that is scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .285 batting average along with a .329 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .851 over that span. Kansas City has also won 4 of their last 5 home games when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The Royals have won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams that allowed at least five runs in their last game. KC has also won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Royals are very reliable when they are fairly significant favorites as they have won 45 of their last 70 games when priced in the -125 to -175 price range. But the reason why this situation pops is the opportunity to back Keller who is 6-5 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 105 1/3 innings. The rookie right-hander has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 3.23 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 55 2/3 innings at home. Kansas City has won 5 of their last 7 games with Keller making the start.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams are battling to avoid the basement this season — but there can be very good betting situations even between two bad teams. Baltimore has been very bad on the road this season while the Royals play their best at home — and Kansas City has a big edge at starting pitcher tonight. 25* MLB Game of the Month with the money-line on the Kansas City Royals (926) versus the Baltimore Orioles (925) listing both starting pitchers Brad Keller and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-0) finished with a 7-6 record last year after they defeated Arizona by a 38-35 score in the Foster Farms Bowl. Northwestern (0-0) concluded a strong 10-3 season with their 24-23 victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats won last year’s meeting between these two teams back on November 11th by a 23-13 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Purdue will also be looking to avenge a rough 45-17 loss to Northwestern the last time these two teams played in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers had a 10-0 early lead in that game before surrendering a whopping 605 yards in that blowout loss. Purdue has lost their last four games against the Wildcats but this will be just their second meeting against them with second-year head coach Jeff Brohm. He leads the Boilermakers to a 7-6 winning record last year which was a big improvement over their 3-9 campaign in 2016. Brohm is an offensive coach but the team’s progress was best measured by their significantly better play on defense as they ranked 24th in the FBS by allowing only 20.5 PPG. Only four starters return from that unit but defensive coordinators Nick Holt and Anthony Poindexter have the benefit of working with these players for over a year now. Brohm has not tipped his hand regarding who his starting quarterback will be after relying on senior David Blough and junior Elijah Sindelar last season. It looks like it will be Sindelar will get the nod (although I suspect both players will get time in this game). The big-armed QB passed for 376 yards against Northwestern last season. If there are some speed bumps with the Boilermakers defense this year, their offense that returns nine starters should keep them in this game. Purdue has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite — and the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. Northwestern enjoyed a very fortunate season last year as they led the nation with the fewest games lost to injury while benefiting from winning all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The big question for this team is the health of their 5th-year senior quarterback Clayton Thorson who tore his ACL in the Music City Bowl. While head coach Pat Fitzgerald has not announced who will be his starting QB for this game, Thorson was cleared to take part in practices earlier this month and will likely. However, Thorson has yet to see his recovered knee tested against live competition. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the first two weeks of a new season.

FINAL TAKE: Brohm proved he was one of the best coaches in the country by immediately making the Boilermakers competitive after building a very strong program at Western Kentucky. Northwestern enters this season probably a bit overvalued — and their QB situation is less than ideal with Thorson returning from injury. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (78-54) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped last night with their 10-3 loss to the Mets yesterday. Atlanta (74-58) looks to rebound from an 8-5 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Montgomery who is coming off the disabled list to return to their now six-man rotation. The left-hander has a 4-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings of work. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 54 2/3 innings of work both starting and out of the pen. Montgomery did not allow an earned run in his last start where he pitched 6 innings at Kansas City — and the Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games when Montgomery registered a Quality Start in his last start on the mound. He faces a Braves team that has seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (74-58) has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also played 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 10-8 with a 2.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in twelve home starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Atlanta.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that are in the heat of the National League playoff race. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (109) plus the points versus the New York Giants (110). THE SITUATION: New England (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 25-14 upset loss in Carolina last week as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. New York (2-1) comes off a 22-16 win last week in their annual Snoopy Bowl preseason matchup against the Jets.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: Successful handicapping of the NFL preseason has become even more dependent on doing the work to identify the specific intentions that a head coach has for each preseason game with past conventions like using the third week’s game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” increasingly going by the wayside. There is strong value in looking at New England with a deep history on preseason games to assess in the Bill Belichick era as he is not likely to change his approach. His teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 preseason games after an upset loss by double-digits in the preseason — so it is highly likely he is using the practices this week to coax a better effort from his team that is facing a massive cutdown of their roster on Saturday. That game against the Panthers went into halftime with a 9-3 score — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 preseason games after an exhibition game where they did not score more than 3 points in the first half. New England is not likely to play Tom Brady at all tonight — but they have one of the best backups in the league in Brian Hoyer who is completing 61.7% of his passes this preseason. Most of this game will likely be an audition for rookie Danny Etling out of LSU — and in the Patriots’ coaches, I trust. The New England brain trust has done a great job of developing quarterbacks including most recently Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett so I look for Etling to be effective in this contest. New York head coach Pat Shurmur has declared that he “will probably be some players that do not play” in this fourth preseason game. Quarterback Eli Manning has not played in the fourth preseason game since 2014 so it is highly unlikely that he takes the field. That leaves the quarterback to Davis Webb and rookie Kyle Lauletta. Webb was not ready to play in regular season games last year (that is why it was Geno Smith and not Webb who started in that controversial game late in the season when Ben McAdoo benched Manning). He is just 28 of 53 this preseason for a low 52.8% completion percentage while averaging a mere 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. Lauletta entered camp untested against elite competition after playing his college ball at Richmond. He has thrown just 16 passes in preseason action completing nine of these passes while averaging just 4.8 Yards-Per-Attempt — so he is still very raw as a prospect. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 games in the preseason after a straight-up win in the preseason. The Giants are not reliable favorites in the preseason either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 41 preseason games when laying the points — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in their last four preseason games as the favorite. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 home games in the preseason as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have the better overall roster while being better coached than this new staff with the Giants — and these are both important factors when handicapping preseason games. The icing on the cake is that Belichick has a better situation from which to script a more spirited effort from his team. 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (109) plus the points versus the New York Giants (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (73-60) outlasted the Reds in the second game of this series by a 13-12 score in 10 innings last night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have now played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total in the month of August — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL Central opponents. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 2-2 with a 2.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression for this left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.97 and 4.56 moving forward this season. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miley making the start. He faces a Reds team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati (57-75) has also seen the Over go 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 52 day games, the Reds have played 31 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Reed who is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month. Reed has logged-in 80 innings at the major league level in his career where he has not been as effective at home. The left-hander has a 7.05 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .358 in 37 innings at home as compared to his 5.44 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Furthermore, Reed has been rocked for a 9.39 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings during day games as compared to his 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at night. Cincinnati has played 8 straight games Over the Total with Reed pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that was scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games before yesterday along with a .290 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827. Lastly, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: It should be another high-scoring affair between these two teams in this afternoon getaway game at the Great American Ballpark. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Reds (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Matt Harvey and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (57-75) snapped their five-game losing streak last night with their 9-7 victory over the Brewers in the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Reds have now won 4 straight games at home — and they have won 6 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Harvey who is 6-7 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP — although his 6-5 record with a 4.14 ERA and 1.20 WHIP since joining with Cincinnati convinced the franchise to not trade him to a contender (like these Brewers) this month. The right-hander has been more effective when pitching at home where he owns a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .211 in ten starts (eleven games) as compared to his 1.49 WHIP and .310 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts (fifteen games). The Reds have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Harvey on the hill — and Harvey’s teams have won an impressive 8 of their last 9 home games with him pitching as an underdog. He faces a Brewers team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Milwaukee (73-60) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Brewers’ bullpen pitched 6 2/3 innings last night — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after a game where their bullpen logged in at least 6 innings of work. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record — and they have also lost 13 of their last 19 games against fellow NL Central opponents. They counter with Peralta who is 6-4 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in thirteen starts. But while the right-hander has been better at home with a 2.81 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in five starts, his ERA rises to a 5.06 mark along with a 1.42 WHIP in eight starts on the road. The Brewers have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Peralta on the hill.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is an intriguing underdog in this situation but my preferred play is to invest in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price being below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB National League Central Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Cincinnati Reds (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Milwaukee Brewers (905) listing both starting pitchers Matt Harvey and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (66-67) has won three straight games with their 2-0 shutout win over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 18-6-3 the Giants’ last 27 games after a victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding once again at home this year where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in seven starts. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games with Bumgarner on the hill — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home with Bumgarner facing the Diamondbacks. He should continue this success tonight when facing this Arizona team (72-58) that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. And while Arizona has lost three of their last four games, they have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. The Diamondbacks have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in eight starts. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Buchholz on the hill. He has benefited from a fairly easy stretch of opponents — and he will be facing a cold Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .591 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings between these two teams in San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitchers’ duel between these two teams facing slumping lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (914) versus the Colorado Rockies (913) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Odrisamer Despaigne. THE SITUATION: Colorado (71-59) has lost two of their last three games after their 12-3 loss to St. Louis yesterday. Los Angeles (63-68)has lost six straight games with their 3-1 loss to Houston yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Colorado has bounced-back to win 4 straight games after a loss — and they have won 7 straight road games after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. Additionally, the Rockies have won 4 straight games on the road — and they have won 10 straight road games when favored in the -125 to -175 price range. They give the ball to Gray who is 10-7 with a 4.67 EEA and a 1.27 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander was underperforming for the first-half of the season in relation to his peripheral numbers — and Colorado eventually sent him down to the minors for a spell. But since returning from the minor leagues, Gray is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in seven starts. His SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.34 and 3.11 moving forward. Additionally, Gray is getting great run support as his team is scoring 6.6 Runs-Per-Game over his last ten starts. Gray has also been a bit better away from Coors Field given his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .247 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.30 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .263. The Rockies have won 4 straight road games with Gray on the hill. And while Gray comes off a strong outing where he allowed only two runs in 6 1/3 innings of work against the Padres — and Colorado has won 6 straight games with Gray following up a Quality Start. He should fare well against this Angels team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .274 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .650 over that span. Los Angeles has lost 5 straight games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Angels have lost 5 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 5 straight games at home. Additionally, LA has lost 25 of their last 32 home games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Despaigne who is 2-2 with a 6.35 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings of work. Over his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed 8 runs in those 8 innings of work. He faces a Rockies team scoring 4.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .280 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .795 over that span. Colorado has won 19 of their last 26 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and they have also won 5 of their last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado is in the thick of the NL West and NL Wildcard races while the Angels are playing out the string. Gray is undervalued right now given his mediocre ERA but he is pitching much better than what that 4.67 number suggests. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (914) versus the Colorado Rockies (913) listing both starting pitchers Jon Gray and Odrisamer Despaigne. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (2-0-0) have won their opening two games of the new season with their 3-1 win over Fulham last Saturday. Manchester United (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 upset loss last Sunday at Brighton and Hove Albion.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The pressure is mounting on Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho whose preferred defensive tactics are not matching with the talent he has on this Red Devils roster. Man United managed only nine shots despite controlling the possession for 66.6% of this match — and yet they allowed two goals to a Brighton team that was 17th in the entire EPL in goals scored last year. David de Gea was perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world last year but he has been off his game since the World Cup where he was part of Spain’s disappointment. The Red Devils have allowed four goals this season — so while it is tempting to think that Mourinho will want to tighten things up even more after that embarrassing loss, his team’s defensive form suggests that is not a winning strategy. Mourinho saw implosions in his third year as the manager for both Chelsea and Real Madrid so his seat is red hot right now. The pressure is on Man United offensive players to register goals in this important contest with a good Spurs side. The Red Devils are 5th in goals scored last year with 68 — and 41 of those goals were scored at home at Old Trafford for a 2.16 Goals-Per-Game average. In their last five home matches against one of the Top Six teams in the EPL, Man United has scored ten goals. But the problem for Mourinho is that his team has also surrendered seven goals in those last five home contests hosting a Top Six side. The Red Devils produced only one clean sheet at home all of last season against a Top Six team — so it is likely that the Spurs will score in this contest. Tottenham has scored five times in their first two matches with Harry Kane breaking his EPL August cold-streak by finally scoring in the opening month of the season last week in the 77th minute against Fulham. Kane enjoyed a great run with England in the World Cup and he looks to remain in top form now. The Spurs have scored 1.8 Goals in their last ten EPL games on the road while allowing 1.1 Goals-Per-Game against their home hosts. More importantly, they have scored six goals in their last three road matches against a Top Six team in EPL action while allowing those Top Six opponents to score seven times. Tottenham has also allowed nine goals in their last four road contests in the EPL against a Top Six opponent.

FINAL TAKE: The urgency to win this match will likely produce a 2-1 result (at least). The Spurs should score at least once on the road — and Manchester United tends to break out of Mourinho’s organizational straight-jacket when the goings get rough. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-0) remained undefeated so far this preseason with their 20-15 upset win in New Orleans last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Dallas (0-2) looks to rebound from their 21-13 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys are missing key pieces on their offensive line with right guard Zack Martin out with an injury and now their All-Pro center Travis Frederick has been diagnosed with the Guillain-Barre autoimmune syndrome that threatens his future playing career. Given this state of affairs, head coach Jason Garrett is not taking any chances with Ezekiel Elliott as the running back will not play in this game — and I do not expect Dak Prescott to play much either to ensure he is not exposed to an injury. This leaves the Dallas offense relying on a depleted offensive line and their less than inspiring backup quarterbacks in rookie Mike White and second-year pro Cooper Rush. The Cowboys are encouraged with the play of their youngsters on defense after they held the Bengals to just 263 yards of offense last week. Dallas has played 12 of their last 16 home preseason games Under the Total after a preseason loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset preseason loss at home. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after losing their last two preseason games. Arizona enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin last week in their win upset win over the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last preseason game. The Cardinals also won the turnover battle in their opening preseason game by forcing another four turnovers which resulted in a +3 net turnover mark for that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle in their previous two preseason games. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked good by completing all 6 of his passes for 61 yards — but while he will start in this third preseason game, head coach Steve Wilks has intimated that he will not play his likely starting quarterback very long in this contest. Rookie QB Josh Rosen may get an extended look in this contest but despite some positive reviews for looking steady under center, he is only completing 55.2% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Cardinals do not have much a rushing attack after David Johnson who they are hoping can return from his season-ending injury last year. They only rushed for 65 yards last week after managing just 56 rushing yards in their opening preseason game — and the Saints outrushed them by 118 net yards. Arizona has played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after being outrushed in their last preseason game by at least 75 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 rushing yards in their last two preseason games. Lastly, in their last 5 preseason games on the road, the Cardinals have played 4 of these preseason games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these coaches not treating this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” opportunity for the starters, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Fulham (2519) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2518). THE SITUATION: Fulham (0-0-2) is looking for their first point since being promoted to the English Premier League this season after losing last week at Tottenham against the Spurs by a 3-1 score last Saturday. Burnley (0-1-1) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss to Watford last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE FULHAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Burnley is also burdened right now with a Europa League schedule that began in late July which keeps them busy on Thursday nights traveling to various locations throughout Europe for that competition. The Clarets have already played eight competitive matches for their 2018-19 campaign after they come off a 3-1 loss at Olympiakos on Thursday. Although manager Sean Dyche made six changes for that match, this Burnley side will likely have heavy legs for this match given the physical burden of this opening stretch of contests. They have only scored four goals in those eight competitive matches with just one of them in EPL competition. The Clarets finished in a nice 7th place last year in the EPL — but the resulting qualification for the Europa League may serve as a pyrrhic victory for this club that wants to avoid relegation. Depth was an issue last year and they did not do much in the summer transfer window. Burnley is winless in their last seven EPL matches with four losses and three draws. They will be facing a hungry Fulham team eager for their first victory in the EPL since being demoted to the Champions League four seasons ago. But the Cottagers, at least on paper, have been considered one of the strongest promoted teams in ages in the EPL. They enjoyed a 23-match unbeaten streak in the Champions League last year while outpointing a Wolverhampton team in the second-half that is also considered one of the strongest sides to ever be promoted to the EPL. Fulham had the finances to enjoy an aggressive summer transfer session that brought in a handful of quality players on all three levels of the pitch. This team also gets back Denis Odoi who served a two-game suspension to begin the EPL season. The Cottagers looked pretty good on the road against the Spurs as they rallied from a one-goal deficit by tying that match at 1-1 before Tottenham’s quality finally making the difference when they scored two more goals at the 74th and 77th-minute marks to win that match. Fulham also had more plenty of scoring opportunities in their opening match against Crystal Palace before losing that match by a 2-0 score. That Crystal Palace team is underrated right now in my opinion so I do not consider it a slight in the least that this newly promoted Fulham side has yet to register a point in their first two matches.

FINAL TAKE: Fulham will be playing in front of an energetic crowd at Craven Cottage for this one. Look for them to overwhelm this Burnley side disadvantaged by their challenging Europa schedule. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Fulham (2519) minus the goal-line versus Burnley (2518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) closed out last season by winning their second straight bowl game when they defeated Central Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 37-14 score. New Mexico State (0-0) also ended their season on a high-note when they upset Utah State in the Arizona Bowl by a 26-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Wyoming will be learning to live life without Josh Allen declared early for the NFL draft who was then drafted in the 1st round by Buffalo. But even with that blue-chipper under center, the Cowboys only scored 23.5 PPG while averaging a mere 286.0 total YPG which ranked 104th and 125th in the FBS. Struggles with their offensive line made things difficult for Allen under center — and they only averaged 3.17 Yards-Per-Carry which was 6th worst in the nation. It is difficult to imagine this offensive unit to be much better out of the blocks without Allen. Head coach Craig Bohl has named redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal as the starting quarterback over an experienced senior in Nick Smith — but this will be his first collegiate start and he will be doing it on the road in a nationally televised night game. As it is, Wyoming has paled 4 of their last 5 games away from home Under the Total. The Cowboys have also played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. But the foundation of this team last year was a defense that ranked 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Eight starters return from that unit including All-Mountain West Conference candidates at all three levels — so Bohl will likely lean on this group heavily to begin the year. Wyoming has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on field turf. New Mexico State (0-0) makes their debut as an independent after their contract with the Sun Belt last season. They also have a new starting quarterback with head coach Doug Martin tapping junior college transfer Matt Romero over senior Nick Jeanty. But the Aggies will also have the luxury of leaning on an experienced defense as they return ten of their top eleven tacklers from last year’s team. New Mexico State was a bend-but-do-not-break group last year on defense as they were 7th in the nation in 3rd Down defense while ranking 41st in the FBS in Red Zone defense. This should be an even better group under the guidance of an outstanding defensive coach in defensive coordinator Frank Spaziano who had some elite defensive units when he was the head coach at Boston College. The Aggies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on field-turf — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: With both these teams kicking off their seasons early with experienced defenses and rookie quarterbacks, expect this to be a low-scoring game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the British Columbia Lions (368) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (367). THE SITUATION: British Columbia (3-5) looks to bounce-back from a 24-23 upset loss in Toronto last week as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Saskatchewan (4-4) comes off perhaps the biggest upset of the entire CFL season when they handed Calgary their first loss of 2018 campaign with their 40-27 victory at home as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Roughriders are due for a big emotional letdown after they proved that this year’s Stampeders’ team can be beaten. As it is, Saskatchewan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Now the Roughriders go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season with an average losing margin of -6.4 PPG. Saskatchewan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting 3 points or less. They are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Vancouver to face British Columbia — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow West Division foes. British Columbia should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. The Lions were on the path to victory last week before a late fumble stalled their potential game-winning drive. Their -2 net turnover margin overwhelmed their +48 net yardage advantage in that game. British Columbia has lost three of their last four games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after dropping at least two of their last three games. The Lions are playing better football as they had covered the point spread in four straight games before blowing that game last week. BC has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when they are playing with momentum having covered the point spread in at least two of their last three games. They return home where they are a perfect 3-0 in BC Place with an average winning margin of +7.6 PPG. Lastly, while the Lions have played their last three games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: British Columbia head coach Wally Buono will surely remind his team of the 41-8 thrashing his team suffered at the hands of the Roughriders when these West Division rivals last faced each other back on August 13th of last season despite being 3-point road favorites in that game. Look for the Lions to earn their revenge in their first opportunity at a rematch. 25* CFL Game of the Month with the British Columbia Lions (368) minus the points versus the Saskatchewan Roughriders (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (277) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-15 upset loss at home last Friday to Arizona as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (1-1) won their first game of the exhibition season with their 24-14 victory over Seattle last Saturday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New Orleans lost that game with the Cardinals despite winning the first down battle by a 23 to 18 margin while outgaining them by +31 net yards. The Saints also did not play Drew Brees in that contest. Brees should play in the first-half tonight with head coach Sean Payton still using this third game of the preseason as a dress rehearsal for his starters. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games as the underdog in the preseason. It was a -4 net turnover margin that made the difference last week in their loss to Arizona — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 preseason games after a preseason game where they endured at least a -2 net turnover margin in their last preseason game. The Saints did rush for 183 yards last week on 28 carries for an impressive 6.5 Yards-Per-Carry average. They outrushed Arizona by +118 yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 preseason games after outrushing their last preseason opponent by at least +75 rushing yards. They did only pass for 124 yards in that game — but New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 preseason games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 preseason games after a double-digit win in the preseason. Philip Rivers made his preseason debut last week and he completed 6 of his 7 passes for 62 yards. But the Chargers managed only 146 passing yards in that game with Geno Smith and Cardale Jones being the two backup quarterbacks. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 preseason games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Lastly, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 preseason games against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints should protect the football better tonight which should result in them defeating the Chargers in this contest. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (277) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-78) rebounded from a 5-0 loss on Thursday to shutout the Braves on Friday with their 1-0 victory.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have now seen the Under go 8-2-2 in their last 12 games at home. Miami is a heavy underdog in this game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Chen who is 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. But while the right-hander has been a disaster on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.34 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts, he has been quite good at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in ten starts at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Braves team that went into Friday night scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 batting average over their last seven games along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 over that span. Atlanta (77-56) has played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has now played 15 of their last 23 games this month Under the Total. The Under is also now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.09 in seventeen starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.06 with a 1.08 WHOP buoyed by an opponent’s batting average of .203. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 road games with Sanchez on the hill — and Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Sanchez pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Marlins’ team that has seen the Under go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Runs have been hard to come by in this series with just seven runs scored between these two teams in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Arsenal (2510) minus the Goal-Line versus West Ham (2509). Arsenal (0-0-2) has yet to register a point so far this season after losing to Chelsea on the road last Saturday by a 3-2 score. West Ham (0-0-2) has also lost their first two matches in this English Premier League season when they lost at home to Bournemouth by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Arsenal should have at least earned a draw with Chelsea last week — they had golden opportunities to score where they failed to get the ball between the posts. It was expected that things would be a little bumpy for the Gunners in their first year without Arsene Wenger as their manager in twenty-three years. Unai Emery has taken over the team with the goal of proving more specific tactics on the pitch for this team after Wenger’s more laissez-faire approach. Arsenal has been outscored by -3 net goals in their first two games. However, they have also played the league’s most difficult schedule to begin the new campaign with their initial match being to host the defending champions Manchester City before traveling to face last year’s champs in Chelsea. This team should get right this week by hosting a weak West Ham side. The Gunners are 17-4-1 in their last twenty-two matches against the Hammers. Despite the poor final results, Arsenal has shown glimpses of progress in implementing Emery’s new schemes. West Ham has surrendered six goals so far this season. That is a very worrisome development for a side that was tied for last in the EPL last year by allowing 68 goals. The Hammers managed to stave off elimination last season but this is clearly a group that is still a work in progress this year. West Ham is vulnerable to opponents with powerful central midfielders so this may be the match where Arsenal’s Mesut Ozil breaks out of his slump. Also, look for the Gunners’ striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang to score his first goal of the new season after being prolific in his goal scoring since joining Arsenal last January when playing at home in Emirates Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Hosting West Ham may be just what the doctor ordered for this Arsenal side that may not be ready to challenge Man City to win this year’s title but remain entrenched as one of the elite top-six groups in the EPL. Expect the Gunners to win by more than one goal. 25* EPL NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (2510) minus the Goal-Line versus West Ham (2509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 30-17 upset loss at home to the Giants last Friday. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 30-14 upset victory in Tennessee last Saturday where they were 3-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 3 straight games Under the Total are a double-digit upset loss at home as a home favorite. Detroit has lost and failed to cover the point spread in both their first two preseason games but rookie head coach Matt Patricia is embracing this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” contest. The Lions have played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after enduring at least two straight point spread losses in the preseason. Patricia is committed to having the Lions run the football to control time of possession and keep the defense off the field — so expect to see this strategy enacted in this contest. As it is, Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last preseason game. The Lions have also played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay has played their last 3 preseason games Under the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their previous preseason game under the guidance of head coach Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers have seen their first two preseason games finish Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after playing two straight preseason games Over the Total. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total under Koetter — and this franchise has played 29 of their last 41 home games in the preseason Under the Total when favored by no more than 7 points. And in their last 18 preseason games against an NFC opponent, the Bucs have played 12 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Total has been bet up to the mid-40s for this game with Tampa Bay scoring 28.0 PPG this preseason — but that is likely an overreaction. These two teams tend to play lower scoring games in this preseason which should be the case with the first-stringers playing through the first-half but not wanting to reveal too much on offense against a potential opponent in the NFC Playoffs. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Montreal Alouettes (364) plus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). THE SITUATION: Toronto (3-5) has won two straight games after they upset British Columbia last Saturday by a 24-23 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Montreal (1-8) picks themselves up after a 40-24 drubbing at the hands of the Eskimos in Edmonton.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ALOUETTES PLUS THE POINTS: The reigning Grey Cup Champions may not be able to help themselves from taking this hapless Montreal team lightly after righting their ship and winning their last two games. But both of those victories were just by 1 point apiece — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning their last two games by 3 points or less. The Argonauts were outgained by -48 net yards to the Lions but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin to pull out that win. They are getting good play from journeyman quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson but he is still inexperienced as a starter which helps to make Toronto precarious favorites when playing on the road. As it is, the Argos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Toronto is winless in their three games away from home this season — and they are being outscored by -11.7 PPG. Their three victories this season are by a mere 5 combined points — so they could be also starting at a record as bad as Montreal’s mark. The Boatmen are being outscored by -10.3 PPG for the season while also being outgained by -99.6 net YPG. And in their last 16 games in the month of August, Toronto has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these contests. Montreal fell behind by a 27-14 score at halftime last week — and they were outgained by -285 yards due to their defense that surrendered 560 total yards. But the Alouettes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games are allowing at least 27 points in the first-half of their last game. Montreal has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by at least -120 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite these horrific defensive numbers, first-year head coach Mike Sherman is seeing progress with his team. I expected a rocky start in the Canadian Football League for the former Green Bay Packers’ head coach but now is the time I will be looking for progress from his team. Johnny Manziel remains in the concussion protocol this week and is missing practice. If he is cleared to play, he will likely be the third-string QB which is good news as far as I am concerned. Antonio Pipkin got his first career start last week and played well for himself by completing 14 of 25 passes for 217 yards with a TD pass. The Alouettes covers the large 19-point spread last week after playing a red-hot Ottawa team close the previous week by losing by just a 24-17 score on the road. Montreal has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Alouettes may be an ugly team on paper right now but they should continue to play hard for Sherman and keep this game close against an Argonauts team that is still coasting from the vapors of their surprising Grey Cup win last November. 25* CFL East Division Game of the Month with the Montreal Alouettes (364) plus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). THE SITUATION: New England (2-0) remained undefeated this preseason when they crushed the Eagles last Thursday by a 37-20 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Carolina (2-0) is also unscathed so far in the preseason after they defeated Miami by a 27-20 score as a 3-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers’ have averaged 27.5 PPG in their first two preseason games but their offense will likely struggle in this dress rehearsal game. The Carolina offensive line is without two of their starters with both Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams out with injuries. Not only will the Panthers miss these two players blocking for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey but their absence will likely compel the Panthers to be even more conservative on offense so as to not risk an injury to Newton under center. As it is, Carolina has played 9 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Ron Rivera when playing with six days or less of rest. Carolina has also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under Rivera’s leadership with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Panthers have played their first two preseason games Over the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their two previous preseason games Over the Total. New England has also played their two preseason games Over the Total with their offense averaging 31.5 PPG. But the Patriots are only generating 317.8 total YPG this preseason so their scoring numbers should decrease. In their win over the Eagles last week, one of their touchdowns was scored from a 54-yard fumble recovery. New England has a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Patriots defense did allow 316 passing yards to Philly in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last preseason contest. New England has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Now after playing their last two preseason games at home, the Patriots go on the road for the first time this month which should slow down their offense a bit. New England has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games at home. The Patriots have also played 11 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Lastly, New England’s teams under Bill Belichick have played 13 of their last 21 road games in the preseason Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: While Tom Brady and Newton should play the first half, both teams have below average backups in Brian Hoyer and Garrett Gilbert. The high scoring games that both these two teams have played have attracted many bettors to take the Over which has pushed this Total up to the 45 point range. That is likely an overreaction which makes this strong Under situation even better. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 37-20 thrashing at the hands of the Patriots in New England last Thursday as a 4.5-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1) looks to rebound as well this week after they lost to Buffalo at home last week by a 19-17 score despite being 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Nick Foles was knocked out of that rematch of last year’s Super Bowl after completing just 3 of 9 passes — so his status for this exhibition game has been in doubt. But Foles participated in the Eagles’ practice on Sunday and the team announced Tuesday afternoon that he would start this game and join the starters in playing the entire first half in this dress rehearsal contest. Doug Pederson wants to see more “consistency” from the Super Bowl MVP in this game — and he “would love to see a touchdown drive or two” in this game to quote the Philadelphia head coach earlier this week. Carson Wentz has not been cleared for full-contact yet so he will not take the field in this game. But third-stringer Nate Sudfeld looked very good last week against the Patriots after completing 22 of 39 passes for 312 yards with three TD passes — so he should be able to move the ball in the second-half against the Browns’ backup defense. New England demonstrated once again that NFL head coaches have different motivations with these preseason games with Bill Belichick clearly using that contest as a marker for his team after losing to the Eagles last February. But a -2 net turnover margin did not help the Eagles’ cause with the Patriots scoring on a 54-yard fumble recovery helping them seize a 27-7 lead going into halftime. Philadelphia actually won the yardage battle in that contest by a 359 to 334 margin. This Eagles’ team is deep on both sides of the football which should finally translate into a victory for them this preseason. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 preseason games under Pederson’s leadership when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 preseason games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland lost their first preseason game in two years with that loss to the Bills — but this has not been a franchise that responds well to adversity even with exhibition games. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after both a straight-up loss and a point spread loss in the preseason on head coach Hue Jackson’s watch. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 preseason games after an upset loss as a home favorite. While most of the attention at quarterback has been on rookie Baker Mayfield who appears locked-in as a backup to Tyrod Taylor, Jackson has indicated he needs to get more snaps in this game to the veteran Drew Stanton after he failed to complete any of his 4 passes last week against the Bills. Mayfield is only completing 54.5% of his passes this preseason despite all the hype regarding his accuracy when playing at Oklahoma. Moving forward, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 preseason games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 preseason games as a favorite which makes them precarious favorites against the reigning Super Bowl Champions.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland’s roster does look improved this year — but their group is still a far cry from this Eagles team that won a Super Bowl while overcoming a number of injuries that would have ruined many NFL teams. The Eagles will want to use this third game in the preseason to establish momentum for the regular season. 25* NFLx Fox-TV Preseason Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Robbie Erlin. THE SITUATION: Colorado (68-56) has won four straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 4-2 win in Atlanta on Sunday. San Diego (49-78) has lost six of their last seven games with their 4-3 loss to Arizona on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Padres are in the tank at this point of the season having gone just 12-30 in the second-half of the season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games after an off-day. The Padres have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Erlin who is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP as a starter and out of the pen this year. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in 31 2/3 innings of work. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Erlin on the hill. He faces a Rockies team that has won 12 of their last 14 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has won 11 of their last 15 games are allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 25 of their last 38 games after a win by at least two runs. The Rockies have also won 20 of their last 27 home games. They counter with Anderson who is 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The lefty is better at home in Coors Field where he sports a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twelve starts. Colorado has won 11 of their last 18 home games with Anderson pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He should fare well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .204 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .627. San Diego has lost 20 of their last 26 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies are supported by an empirical situational angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 60% effective since 1997. Anderson has struggled over his last three starts with a 10.70 ERA (but his lone home start over that span saw him allow only one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Dodgers) — and National League home teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20 to 4.70 ERA who has an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 170 of the last 284 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado is playing good baseball right now as they are in the thick of the NL West and wildcard races. They should take care of business against the reeling Padres playing out the string. With the Rockies priced in the -175 price range, let's invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the asking price. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Blowout of the Month with the Colorado Rockies (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Robbie Erlin. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) remained undefeated in this preseason with a 33-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (1-0) also earned a victory last Thursday as they upset Seattle by a 19-17 score as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens were quite good on defense last week as they held the Rams to just 170 yards of offense. With eleven starters returning from last years’ team that was 6th in the NFL by holding opponents to just 18.9 PPG, the Ravens defense has a good chance to be one of the best units in the NFL this season — and they boast plenty of depth after enduring a few injury-riddled seasons. Depth is a critical factor in handicapping preseason NFL action — and the Ravens have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed only 7 points in their two preseason games so far this month — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jim Harbaugh after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their previous two preseason games. On offense, rookie Lamar Jackson had a better game against the Rams than his opening contest against the Bears but he does not appear ready to challenge Joe Flacco to be the starter anytime soon. He should see plenty of action tonight with Robert Griffin III looking solid as a veteran backup on this team. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. And in their last 6 preseason games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Ravens have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Colts defense also flexed their muscles last week by holding the Seahawks to just 195 yards of offense. What Indy lacks in defensive talent they make up for in plenty of roster competition to earn spots everywhere — so this unit will play very hard tonight. QB Andrew Luck looked good last week by completing 6 of 9 passes for 64 yards — but I do not expect new head coach Frank Reich to push the envelope too much with him by playing for an extended period of time. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Colts have also played 16 of their last 22 home preseason games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Additionally, Indy has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game has been up significantly with the number opening at 37 but it is now listed in many places as high as 43. I love it. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Crystal Palace (2510) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (2509). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (1-0-0) won their opening match in the 2018-19 English Premier League campaign with their 4-0 stomping at home against West Ham United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (1-0-0) also won their opening match with a 2-0 win on the road at Fulham last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE PLUS THE POINTS: It is easy to get excited about Liverpool after a dominating victory like that. The Reds have designs on dethroning Manchester City this year as EPL champions after reaching the Champions League Finals last May. The Pool Boys are loaded with talent and made some nice additions in the summer to bolster their championship runs this season. But winning on the road against quality competition is easier said than done — especially when laying at least +1.0 goals. Liverpool was just 1-2-2 in their last five EPL matches away from their home in Anfield last year. They scored only five goals in those six matches with manager Jurgen Klopp making a subtle shift in their tactics in having them play more cautiously with defensive tactics when on the road. Defense remains a concern for this team with the lack of an elite central defender being one of the biggest vulnerabilities for this side. The Reds can struggle against opponents that commit to playing very deep defenses as it tends to frustrate the offensive talent available to Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool has won four straight matches at Selhurst Park against Crystal Palace with three of those contests being in EPL play. Their last meeting with the Eagles hosting the game was back on March 31st where Liverpool won by a 2-1 score. That narrow loss may have represented a turning point for Crystal Palace as they closed out the season going an impressive 4-0-2 in their final six EPL matches while outscoring their opponents by a 14 to 5 goal margin. With their victory at Fulham last week, the proverbial Pride of London is now unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches while seeing an unbeaten friendlies record this summer sandwiching in-between these improved results. This is a team that started disastrously last year with seven straight losses to begin the 2017-18 campaign while failing to score in all seven matches. They brought on the veteran manager Roy Hodgson who settled the team with a modest approach. Getting healthy also helped as the Eagles got back their star striker in Wilfried Zaha who scored nine goals last year — and he scored the final goal last Saturday. Crystal Palace was 0-10 without Zaha last year but a more than respectable 11-11-6 with him on the pitch. The Eagles’ backline settled last year with James Tompkins and Mamadou Sakho getting to play next to each other in the center of their defense — they have not lost their last thirteen matches with those two playing together. This is a statement match for Crystal Palace who typically enjoys a strong home field advantage but have something to prove against the Pool Boys who have had their number as of late.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool may be a bit overconfident these days with all the championship talk — while Hodgson will be happy to play this match cautiously with a draw being a fine result. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Crystal Palace (2510) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (2509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: These two teams have split the first four games of this series after New York (53-69) defeated Philadelphia (68-55) yesterday by a 3-1 score. This series travels south to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for ESPN’s second annual Little League Classic to be played at Bowman Field (with Major League dimensions).

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York had been on-fire with their bats just a few days ago — but, alas, they have already begun to cool off after scoring 16 runs on Wednesday before plating 24 runners in the opening game of this series on Thursday which was Game One of the double-header that day. The Mets have a .330 batting average over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after hitting at least .315 over their last five games. This regression is already taking place as they have just a .202 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not having better than a .260 On-Base Percentage over their last three contests. Additionally, New York has played a decisive 51 of their last 83 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Vargas who has been a disappointment this year with a 2-8 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has perhaps found his groove again after allowing only two runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games with Vargas on the hill — and Vargas’ teams have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total with him making the start for a night game. Vargas faces a Phillies team that has seen the Under go 40-19-2 in their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by no more than two runs. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. While the Mets are the technical home team, this is an unfamiliar environment for Pivetta — yet he pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start away from Citi Field in Arizona. The Under is 8-1-2 in New York’s last 11 games with Pivetta pitching after a loss — and the Phillies have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total with Pivetta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: The first Little League Classic was also played in Williamsburg last August with the Pirates defeating the Cardinals by a 6-3 score with Ivan Nova defeating Mike Leake. Expect this contest to see fewer runs. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (429) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (430). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 19-17 upset loss last Thursday at home against Indianapolis as a 2-point favorite. Los Angeles (0-1) suffered a 24-17 loss in Arizona last Saturday in their opening preseason game as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Pete Carroll has used the nine days to emphasize to his team to play smarter after they committed 12 penalties last week. Ten of those penalties were committed in the second-half so expect cleaner play from the Seattle reserves after a hard week of practice. Carroll typically likes to see good results in these preseason exhibition games as a reward for tough practice sessions. His Seahawks’ teams have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 preseason games against AFC opponents while also covering the point spread in 11 of their last 15 preseason games on the road. Additionally, Seattle should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 preseason games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Russell Wilson played well with the first-string offense against the Colts as he completed 4 of 5 passes for 43 yards and a TD pass for quickly ending his day — he should play at least into the second quarter in this contest. The Seahawks are reliable preseason underdogs who have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the dog under Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 preseason games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 preseason games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Los Angeles lost three fumbles in their game with the Cardinals which ultimately proved to be the difference in that game considering that the Chargers’ outgained Arizona by 217 net yards. But there were other concerns besides protecting the football for Los Angeles as the middle of their defense continues to appear vulnerable while their special teams remain rather shaky. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 preseason games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games. And in their last 7 preseason games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. QB Philip Rivers did not play last week but the veteran is not likely to play more than two series tonight — and that leaves LA with the shaky trio of Geno Smith, Cardale Jones and rookie Nic Shimonek under center.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are a trendy dark horse team to make a playoff run this season — but those evaluations should not color preseason handicapping. Seattle has been a very reliable preseason team in the Carroll era and the rumors of this franchise’s demise this season are a bit premature. Getting them as a preseason underdog is quite valuable. 25* NFLx Preseason Bailout Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (429) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (430). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (955) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Chatwood and Joe Musgrove. THE SITUATION: Chicago (71-50) has won three straight games after winning their second-straight 1-0 victory over the Pirates in the second game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 5 straight games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Cubs have also won 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have won 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a losing record. The Cubs opened as a small money-line favorite but with their expected starting pitcher Mike Montgomery scratched for Tyler Chatwood, the betting movement has made Chicago a clear money-line underdog in this game. Chatwood is 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA but what scares bettors off (as well as lost him a spot in the Cubs rotation) is his 1.80 WHIP. While Chatwood issues too many bases-on-balls, that is not enough reason for the Chicago to be the underdog in this situation. Part of the problem for Chatwood has been pitching at home where perhaps he puts too much pressure on himself. This was an issue when he pitched for the Rockies and he owns a 5.52 ERA with a 1.92 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .250 at home this year. But those numbers drop to a more respectable 4.35 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .237 when on the road. Furthermore, Chatwood enjoyed a nice 3.44 ERA with a still declining 1.53 WHIP in his seven road starts this year. The Cubs have won 4 straight games with Chatwood facing a team with a losing record. And manager Joe Maddon can always go to his outstanding bullpen which has a 2.68 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP on the road — and this bullpen has a 1.61 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in their last seven games. Chatwood and the Cubs’ pen should have success against this Pirates team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .252 batting average along with a low .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .650 during that span. Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight games after a loss. The Pirates have also lost 4 straight games at home — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Musgrove who is 4-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in thirteen starts. The sabermetrics call for regression for the right-hander with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.28 and 4.31 moving forward. Musgrove has not been as effective at home where he has been saddled with a 4.40 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 in eight starts. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Musgrove making the start. That is not a good sign when facing this Cubs team that has won 5 of their last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs should be a coin flip — at worst — with Chatwood on the hill when facing this Pirates team they have defeated in 7 of their last 9 games in Pittsburgh. Great value here. 25* MLB National League Central Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (955) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (956) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Chatwood and Joe Musgrove. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Manchester City last Sunday. Chelsea (1-0-0) earned a win in their opening match last Saturday with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are learning new systems under new managers that prioritize offensive tactics. Maurizio Sarri has to be pleased with Chelsea scoring three times on the road in their opening match. Sarri has his team playing high while emphasizing speed and controlling possession which is a radical departure from the defensive counter-attacking tactics of their previous manager Antonio Conte. The results against Huddersfield was to get their defensive midfielders more involved as N’Golo Kante and their new summer transfer Jorginho both scored goals along with Pedro from the midfield. The Blues attempted a healthy 13 shots last week. Generating more goals is a priority for Sarri after this team finished 6th in goals scored last season but with their 62 tally far behind the top-five teams in that category. The starting XI also looks to get a boost with Eden Hazard likely to start after not being fit after getting time off after his World Cup efforts with Belgium. But this renewed emphasis on playing high with speed will make Chelsea vulnerable in their back end. Huddersfield forced ten turnovers in the Blues’ back last week which they were not able to convert into goals. The transition from Conte’s preferred 3-5-2 formation to a 4-3-3 is asking the Chelsea defenders to embrace some new responsibilities which might produce some growing pains for players like Marcos Alonso who had been given the green light to drift more into the offensive end of the pitch when on the attack. The Blues also have a new goalkeeper in Kepa Arrizabalaga who might experience some cohesion issues with his new club when facing a rise in competition this week after just being acquired at the beginning of the month. Arsenal did not score against the reigning EPL Champions last week — but they did show spunk by forcing seven turnovers in Man City’s back end which should lead to scoring chances if continued in this match. New manager Unai Emery wants his team to employ the en-vogue high-pressing system to create more scoring chances. This attack came alive late in the match when Alexandre Lacazette was subbed in to play alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This forward pairing should get the start in this important match. The bigger challenge for Emery and this Gunners’ squad is shoring things up on defense after the finished a disappointing 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Arsenal back line is the biggest weakness of the team — and this group is banged up now and not close to 100%. Frankly, the team needs to upgrade their center-backers but that is not an option at this early part of the season. Instead, the high-pressing system will likely lead to some nervy moments when these tactics fail — Man City attempted 17 shots with eight on target last week.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important early match for two teams that are fighting for a Top-Four finish this season. Both sides have leaky defenses with new systems still being worked out. With both teams also emphasizing a renewed aggressiveness in offensive tactics, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (68-55) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-4 loss in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday. St. Louis (66-56) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped won Wednesday with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off-day — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. They give the ball to Peralta who is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.17 mark along with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Peralta making the start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .878. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. The Cardinals have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. St. Louis has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nineteen starts. The rookie right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.53 with a 1.11 WHIP. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Flaherty pitching with five days of rest. He also faces a hot-hitting team as the Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .780.

FINAL TAKE: The number is generally at 8 in most locations for this game. Both with two lineups hitting the ball well facing young starting pitchers that have an ever-growing book being written on their strengths and weaknesses, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back after suffering a 20-10 upset loss last Thursday at home against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite in their first preseason game. Detroit (0-1) also looks to get a victory after they lost last Friday in Oakland by a 16-10 score as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had joint practices this week — so this game will serve as the culmination of that work. The most aggressive play-calling often occurs in those simulated practice sessions — these exhibition games often end up particularly vanilla as the culmination of these scrimmages. The Giants plan on using this game to given an extended look to second-year backup quarterback Davis Webb who is competing with rookie Kyle Lavletta for the backup job to Eli Manning. Webb struggled last week against the Browns as he completed only 9 of 22 passes for only 70 yards. Lavletta was OK but not particularly impressive in his professional debut as he completed 6 of his 9 passes but that only produced 48 yards. New York has played 14 of their last 21 preseason games Under the Total after a double-digit loss in the preseason. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Additionally, New York has played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit managed to generate only 253 yards of offense last week against the Raiders. But I do not expect rookie head coach Matt Patricia to have any plans on opening up the offense this week. General manager Bob Quinn considered last year’s team too soft on both sides of the football. I expect the Lions to commit to trying to improve their running game while perhaps giving a bunch of carries to Ameer Abdullah who is on the trading block after they signed LeGarrette Blount in the offseason before drafting Auburn’s Kerryone Johnson in the second round of the NFL draft. This second exhibition game looks to be a showcase for third-year QB Jake Rudock who is fighting for the backup job to Matthew Stafford. Rudock completed 12 of 19 passes for 84 yards last week against the Raiders but failed to generate enough scoring opportunities in moving the offense. Detroit has played 21 of their last 33 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 preseason games overall Under the Total with the number set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: Much of the important work for both these rookie head coaches in the Giants’ Pat Shurmer and Patricia of the Lions has already been done this week. Look for this to be a game fought in the trenches which is an area of emphasis for both coaches. Expect a low-scoring game. 25* NFLx NFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (404) minus the point(s) versus the New York Jets (403). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-1) looks to play better after they were defeated by the Patriots in New England in their opening preseason game last Thursday by a 26-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (1-0) comes off a 17-0 shutout win over Atlanta last Friday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Jay Gruden has a sense of urgency with his team with him sitting on the hot seat in the fifth season with the franchise. His teams have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 preseason games. The Skins should see the debut of their new starting quarterback Alex Smith who did not play last week — and I expect him to play until he sees points put on the board for the offense as they look to build momentum moving forward in this new era after Kirk Cousins. I do like the Washington backup quarterback as Colt McCoy is a wily veteran with 25 career starts in the league who is entering his fourth season in Gruden’s offense. He completed 13 of 18 passes last week against the Patriots for 189 yards with two TD passes and no interceptions. I am even OK with third-stringer Kevin Hogan as he played in eight NFL games after his first two NFL seasons. He completed 7 of 9 passes last week. The Skins also have a heightened competition at running back after the season-ending injury to rookie Derrius Guice last week. On the plus side, Washington still has Chris Thompson, Samaje Perrine and Rob Kelley which was their initial depth chart at this time last year. Gruden needs to use this game to help establish the frontrunner to be the starter. The Skins return home to host their first preseason game. They have covered the point spread in 5 off their last 8 preseason home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. New York will likely start their rookie QB Sam Darnold in this game to see how he performs with the first-string offense while facing the Skins’ starting defense. Darnold took 23 of his 28 snaps in Tuesday’s practice with the team with the first-unit offense. The former USC QB looked solid last week by completing 13 of 18 passes for 96 yards and a TD pass against the Falcons. But he was the third-string QB in that game facing the lowest part of the Atlanta defensive depth chart — and a handful of those completions were short shuttle passes that helped pad his stats. Darnold will likely play the entire first-half with Teddy Bridgewater playing most, if not all, of the second-half as he seems to be on audition to be traded to another team. Bridgewater looked good like the mid-level starting QB that he was for the Vikings before he suffered that devastating knee injury in 2016 as he completed 7 of his 8 passes for 85 yards. But he may not be able to move the ball as well this week when playing with a group of lower-string teammates on offense. The Jets rushed for only 75 yards last week on 32 carries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight preseason games for failing to rush for more than 75 rushing yards in their last preseason game. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road preseason games as an underdog under head coach Todd Bowles.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets opened as a 2-point underdog in this game but have been bet down to even being a pick ‘em in some spots with bettors likely intrigued with the depth the team has at quarterback. However, Darnold making his first professional start and facing better defensive players than he did last week presents a big challenge to the rookie and negates much of that QB depth edge Bowles enjoyed last week against the Falcons. Washington should play much better this week playing at home and motivated to play better after losing last week. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Game of the Year with the Washington Redskins (404) minus the point(s) versus the New York Jets (403). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (86-35) has won eleven of their last twelve games with their 2-1 win over the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a victory — and the Under is 9-0-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games on the road. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a terrible outing where he got rocked for eight runs (six earned) while surrendering a season-high 10 hits in an exasperating outing against the anemic Orioles. Eovaldi began the start with a microscopic 0.43 ERA along with a 0.67 WHIP in his three previous starts with the latter two being in a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Twins. Eovaldi’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Phillies lineup that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .170 batting average, .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .507 over that span. The Under is 9-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies (65-53) have seen the Under go 40-15-4 in their last 59 games after a loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Velasquez who is 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-two starts.Over his last ten appearances, Velasquez has a sparkling 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Phillies have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Velasquez on the hill. he faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is now 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

FINAL TAKE: Eovaldi should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight — expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that tend to play Unders. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (901) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Junior Guerra. THE SITUATION: Chicago (68-50) has lost two of their last three games with their 7-0 loss to the Brewers yesterday afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has been very reliable in bounce-back situations as they have won 42 of their last 60 games after a loss. The Cubs have also won 17 of their last 22 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has still won 4 of the last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 8-9 with a 4.02 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has been more effective in day games where he enjoys a 3.74 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP in eight starts. Hendricks has also been better at home where he sports a 3.69 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP in thirteen starts. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 home games with Hendricks on the hill. Milwaukee (68-54) has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a victory. The Brewers have also lost 7 of their last 8 games after fellow NL Central opponents — and they have also still lost 4 of their last 5 games against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. They counter with Guerra who is 6-7 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The sabermetrics call for significant regression with both his SIERA and xFIP both projecting an ERA of 4.37. And while the right-hander has thrived at home where he owns a 2.69 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in fourteen starts, both his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.97 and 1.44 marks when on the road. Milwaukee has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Guerra on the hill — and they have also lost their last 4 games with Guerra facing the Cubs.

FINAL TAKE: The Brewers pulled within 2 games behind Chicago in the NL Central race yesterday — but they are still struggling against divisional rivals. Hendricks should outpitch Guerra this afternoon. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (902) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (901) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Junior Guerra. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (975) versus the Minnesota Twins (976) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Jake Odorizzi. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (61-58) has lost two of their last three games after their 4-3 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. Minnesota (54-63) has lost four of their last five contests with their 4-2 loss in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after an off-day. The Pirates have also won 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record — and they have also won 18 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range. Additionally, Pittsburgh has won 20 of their last 26 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Taillon who is 9-8 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-three starts this season. The right-hander has been quietly enjoying an outstanding year — over his last thirteen starts he owns a 2.98 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP while not allowing more than three earned runs in any of those starts. Taillon has been more effective on the road where he has a 3.39 ERA in twelve starts. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 7 road games with Taillon on the hill. He faces a cold Twins team that is scoring only 2.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .223 batting average along with a .267 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .602 over that span. Minnesota has lost 9 of their last 13 games after an off-day. The Twins have also lost 6 straight games in Interleague play — and they have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Odorizzi who is 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander certainly does not make it easy on himself as his 28.6% Ground-Ball rate is the lowest in the Major Leagues for all starting pitchers. Odorizzi has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 5.13 along with a 1.48 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in eleven starts. The Twins have lost 6 of their last 7 games with Odorizzi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Pirates team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games — and Pittsburgh has also won 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: Taillon is a hidden gem right now — he should pitch very well against a mediocre Twins team. 25* MLB Interleague Road Warrior of the Month with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (975) versus the Minnesota Twins (976) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Jake Odorizzi. Best of luck for us —Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: The Mets (49-66) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Miami yesterday. The Yankees (74-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-2 win over Texas on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games after a win — and the Mets’ have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series Over the Total. The Mets have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing an American League opponent. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 6-7 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. While DeGrom has been outstanding this season, the sabermetrics indicate he should be giving up more than one run more per start given his SIERA of 2.94 and his xFIP of 2.78. And while DeGrom has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.60 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in thirteen starts, he is closer to a mere mortal when on the road where he his ERA rises to a 2.02 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with DeGrom pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 3-1-1 the Bronx Bombers’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after a win — and they have played 29 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Severino who is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 7.31 ERA over his last six starts with him struggling with command on his fastball. He comes off a solid outing last Wednesday where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work — but that was against the lowly White Sox. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Yankee Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: The number is posted at a low 7 with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill — but expect this to be a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Cubs (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION:  Washington (60-57) won the second game of this series last night with their 9-4 victory over the Cubs.

REASONS TO TAKE CHICAGO PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 23 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Washington has still lost three of their last five games — and they have lost 17 of their last 25 games on the road. The Nationals have also lost 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They are favored in this game because they give the ball to Scherzer who is 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The sabermetrics indicate those outstanding numbers are a bit of an overachievement as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.75 and 3.08 moving forward. The right-hander is not quite as effective on the road either as he has a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven starts as compared to his 0.87 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .180 when at home. He faces a Cubs team that has won 6 of their last 8 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago (67-49) has won a decisive 41 of their last 59 games after a loss. The Cubs have also won 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least five runs. And Chicago has won 17 of their last 25 games at home in Wrigley Field. They give the ball to Hamels who is 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. We can ignore the lefty’s 6.41 ERA at home this year as he never grew comfortable pitching in Arlington for the Rangers. He is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in his two starts where a Cubbies uniform — and this will be his first start for his new team at Wrigley. Hamels has a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP when on the road so he is not a pitcher that leans heavily on familiarity. Hamels also thrives in night games where he sports a 3.19 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. His teams have won 40 of their last 60 games with him starting at night.

FINAL TAKE: I like the Cubs as a money-line underdog in this situation — but with the price of the +1.5 Run-Line being below my -150 threshold, my preferred play for this situation is to invest in the valuable Run-Line with runs being in scarce demand with Scherzer on the hill. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Run-Line of the Month with the Chicago Cubs (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (963) listing both starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). THE SITUATION: Montreal (1-6) looks to bounce-back from the debut of Johnny Manziel in the CFL which resulted in a humiliating 50-11 loss to Hamilton as a 6.5-point underdog. Ottawa (4-3) looks to rebound from a 42-41 upset loss in Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manziel did not look comfortable under center — he threw four interceptions with three of those passes being ones that were definitely his fault. Manziel needs to learn from those bad mistakes that he simply cannot force the action even if he is no longer playing in the NFL. I expect him to play a more disciplined game after that embarrassment that literally made international headlines. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike Sherman commits to running the ball more to take the pressure off Manziel in this contest. Tyrell Sutton ran the ball only nine times last week but gained 61 yards on those carries. As it is, the Alouettes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Now Montreal goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Alouettes are scoring only 13.7 PPG on the road — but their defense has played better away from home as they are allowing home teams to scoring 21.3 PPG along with averaging 309.0 total YPG which are both much better numbers than their 34.6 PPG/430.1 YPG season averages. Furthermore, Montreal has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Ottawa blew a 24-point lead against the Argonauts after holding a 28-7 lead at halftime. While that was a wild game, the Redblacks scored two of their touchdowns from a punt return and an interception return. Expect head coach Rick Campbell to prioritize his team to back to playing better defense after that disastrous second-half. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an East Division rival. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after they scored at least 27 points in the first-half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Redblacks should also commit to running the ball more after managing only 46 and 64 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Over might look attractive to many bettors considered that these two teams surrendered 50 and 42 points last week. But Manziel’s interceptions and a crazy second-half contributed greatly to those high scores. Both head coaches want to do whatever they can to reinstall confidence with their defenses — and that should help this contest result in a lower-scoring game. 25* CFL East Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Colorado (61-55) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 5-4 victory over the Dodgers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado should build off the momentum of last night’s results as they have won 19 of their last 26 games after a victory. The Rockies have also won 11 of their last 15 games against NL West opponents. And in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Colorado has won 10 of these contests. They give the ball to Freeland who is 10-7 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The left-hander has been been great at home where he sports a 2.18 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .210 in ten starts. He comes off a strong outing at home in Coors Park where he allowed just two hits and no runs in 7 innings of work against the Pirates. The Rockies have won 5 straight home games with Freeland on the hill — and they have also won 16 of their last 18 games with Freeland making the start as a money-line underdog. Freeland faces a cold Dodgers lineup that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .228 batting average along with a .290 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .678. Los Angeles (64-53) has lost 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have also lost 6 of their last 8 games against an opponent that scored at least five runs in their last contest. They counter with Buehler who is 5-4 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in thirteen starts. The rookie right-hander has struggled on the road where he has been saddled with a 5.26 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in five starts. Buehler has not fared well against the Rockies in his career against which he has a 5.71 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Colorado team that scores 5.1 Runs-Per-Game at home with a .281 batting average along with a .340 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .805. Lastly, because the Dodgers have a team batting average of just .244, they fall into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 76% effective over the last five seasons. The Rockies have a team bullpen ERA of 5.17 — and National League favorites with a team batting average no higher than .255 with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.05 or lower facing a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 47 of the last 62 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: While Colorado is intriguing as a money-line underdog, there is much more evidence to support taking the Rockies with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price below my -150 money-line threshold. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line of the Month with the Colorado Rockies (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Oakland A’s (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Felix Pena. THE SITUATION: Oakland (68-47) has won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Los Angeles (58-58) has three straight games after they defeated the Tigers by a 6-0 score Wednesday afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE A’S WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Oakland has won 20 of their last 27 games after a victory — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Additionally, the A’s have won 15 of their last 21 games on the road. They give the ball to Anderson who is 2-3 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 4.14 mark. But what is more encouraging is that Anderson has a low 2.96 ERA over his last five starts. Oakland has won 4 of their last 5 road games with Anderson on the hill. He faces an Angels team that has lost 17 of their last 24 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles has lost 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than two runs in their last game — and they have also lost 18 of their last 27 games after a shutout victory. The Angels have also lost 19 of their last 26 games after an off day. Furthermore, Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Pena who is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in ten games (eight starts). Pena has three starts on the road where he enjoys a 1.84 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP — but in his seven games (with five starts) at home, the right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 6.94 mark along with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .283. He faces an A’s team that has won 30 of their last 42 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and Oakland has also won 19 of their last 26 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland has been one of the best teams in baseball in the second-half of this season — and Anderson has been pitching well as of late. 25* MLB American League West Game of the Month with the money-line on the Oakland A’s (977) versus the Los Angeles Angels (978) listing both starting pitchers Brett Anderson and Felix Pena. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New York Jets (276) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (275). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-0) travels to New York to face the Jets in the opening exhibition game for both these teams. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: New York faces a sense of urgency this preseason after a second straight 5-11 season. Head coach Todd Bowles does deserve credit to even coaxing that record from a roster that was considered worse than the Browns at this time in the preseason last year before that Cleveland team went a dismal 0-16. The Jets were 2-2 in the preseason last year in Bowles’ third year with the team. New York did outgain their four opponents by +25.0 net YPG by playing strong defense that held their opponents to just 271.5 total YPG. Bowles gets his players to play hard in every game which should translate into these exhibition games even with the third and fourth stringers fighting for their jobs. The Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 preseason games at home under Bowles leadership — and they have also covered the point spread in their last 3 preseason game as the favorite. New York also has the incentive to push their play on offense given the quarterback competition between Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown, and rookie Sam Darnold. This trio might very well represent the best quarterbacking group this preseason with McCown having 73 starts in his fourteen years in the league while Bridgewater adding 18 starts as he enters his 5th year in the NFL. Their franchise quarterback is Darnold who has been wowing observers so far this preseason — he may very well be the Week One starter this year. Because of Darnold’s progress, there has been talk that the Jets may put Bridgewater on the trading block with them being very comfortable with McCown serving as the veteran mentor for Darnold. If that is the case, then the Jets may want to use this nationally televised game to showcase Bridgewater’s offensive talents. Regardless of that wrinkle, Bowles wants to use this game as well as the game next week to determine his starting quarterback so as to provide that individual with the majority of reps in the Week Three “dress rehearsal” — so there is more at stake for this team than there is for a pretty much settled Falcons team. I also like the depth the Jets have at running back with two veterans in Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell along with rookie Trent Cannon who has been impressive in camp after playing his college ball at Virginia State. Atlanta will likely have Matt Ryan on the field for only one series before giving way to their likely second-stringer Matt Schaub. But considering that Schaub is now a 15-year veteran with 92 starts under his belt, he may not play much in this game either with head coach Dan Quinn using this opening exhibition game to focus on the battle for third-string QB between Garrett Grayson and rookie Benkert. Frankly, I don’t consider either player very intriguing with Grayson only appearing in one NFL game in three seasons after a solid but unspectacular college career at Colorado State. And I simply forgot that Benkert was the Virginia starting quarterback last year. One year removed from their heartbreaking collapse to the Patriots run the Super Bowl, the Falcons have little to accomplish in these preseason games which explains their poor recent results. Atlanta was 0-4 in the preseason last year — and they have lost eight of their last twelve preseason contests. They were outscored by +5.7 net PPG last year while being outgained by -29.7 net YPG in their four preseason games last year. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 preseason games against AFC foes under Quinn’s leadership.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets are favored by more than a field goal which is a pretty hefty price in Week One of the preseason. On the other hand, it can look pretty easy to take a very good football team like the Falcons when getting more than 3 points in a preseason game. The sense of urgency that New York brings to this exhibition game along with their great depth at quarterback warrant laying the points. 25* NFLx NFL Network Preseason Game of the Year with the New York Jets (276) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). THE SITUATION: The 2018-19 English Premier League kicks off their season on Friday with the 2015-16 Champions with Leicester City (0-0-0) traveling to Old Trafford to face Manchester United (0-0-0).

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a match greatly impacted by the World Cup last month — a number of key offensive talent will be missing from both sides. Leicester City will be without Jamie Vardy after he played was the backup striker for the England team that made it to the Semifinals. Vardy did not play a bunch for the Three Lions but he just joined the Foxes in training so manager Claude Puel does not think he is in shape to take the pitch. Leicester City has an intriguing young striker in 21-year old Kelechi Iheanacho but he is a step down from Vardy who is one of the best scoring forwards in the English Premier League after playing a vital role in that championship run three seasons ago. Puel will likely have his team rely even more on defense and counter-attacks with the loss of their star midfielder Riyad Mahrez who inked a big transfer to Manchester City this summer. The Foxes were 17th in the EPL last year by allowing 60 goals — but they are likely to change their tactics this year while being aided by a nice signing in center back Jonny Evans who came over from the relegated West Brom. Manchester United will likely be without a host of players who were still playing in the Semifinals of the World Cup: forward Romelu Lukaku, midfielders Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard and Marouane Fellaini and defenseman Ashley Young. Cohesion will likely be an issue for this team after manager Jose Mourinho took a squad to the United States for the International Champions Cup matches without a whopping thirteen players who needed the time off after playing in the World Cup. The Red Devils will hope that backup forward Marcus Rashford or Alexis Sanchez in the midfield will be able to score — but they will be very happy with a 1-0 result. Mourinho’s team emphasizes defensive tactics to the frustration of many of his players and fans. The Red Devils were second in the EPL last year by allowing a mere 28 goals for a low 0.74 Goals-Per-Game allowed mark. Mourinho is also dealing with some injuries to midfielder Nemanja Matic and right back Antonio Valencia who both play critical roles in his defensive tactics. The absence of these two players will likely compel the Red Devils to play even more cautiously in this contest and not risk Leicester City seizing a lead.

FINAL TAKE: This opening match shapes up to feature conservative tactics on both sides given the absences for both teams. Leicester City would be thrilled with a scoreless draw while Mourinho’s teams tend to hold out to the second-half to finally get on the board. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). THE SITUATION: A rare Conference contest occurs between these two teams in the preseason with Houston (0-0) traveling to Kansas City (0-0) in the opening exhibition game for both teams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Bill O’Brien will be happy to take advantage of this exhibition game after last year’s floods wiping out one of their preseason games last season. Houston has been a team that tends to take these exhibition games with a bit more emphasis on the scoreboard as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 preseason games played on grass under O’Brien. Houston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 preseason games under O’Brien as the underdog. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 preseason games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. O’Brien has indicated that incumbent starting quarterback Deshaun Watson is more likely to play in this game after he endured a season-ending ACL tear last year. I do not expect to see Watson play much in this game. I do like the quarterback situation for Houston for the rest of this game. Brandon Weeden shapes up to the be primary backup. In his seventh season in the NFL, Weeden has 25 NFL starts under his belt so he should be in a good position to move the football against the backups of the Chiefs. I also like Joe Webb who is a 9-year pro with 86 appearances in regular season games under his belt. He will be motivated to play well as he is in a battle with 4th year QB Stephen Morris out of Miami (FL) for the third-string QB job out of camp. As an offensive coach, O’Brien usually has his backup quarterbacks ready to play well in the preseason. Andy Reid is one of the senior statesmen of the NFL coaching fraternity with plenty of preseasons under his belt. His teams tend to not pay too much attention to the scoreboard in these exhibition games. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 45 preseason games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their thirteen preseason games in Reid’s tenure with the team. The starting quarterback for the Chiefs will likely be Patrick Mahomes this season — and the second-year pro should see some snaps in this game. I am not as enamored with Kansas City’s quarterback depth when comparing it to the Texans. Chad Henne is an 11-year veteran in the league who is seeing his skills decline after 53 starts in the league. Matt McGloin has seven starts as he enters his 6th year in the league — but he is fighting for his NFL life this season after not showing much after getting time early in his career with the Raiders. He is fighting rookie Chase Litton who will likely play in his first NFL game after completing his collegiate career with Marshall. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home preseason games when favored by no more than 3 points — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in all three of their preseason games with Reid the head coach.

FINAL TAKE: There is often value with the underdog in these opening week preseason games — especially with head coaches often opting for 2-point conversions over tying extra points when given that opportunity in the 4th quarter. The preseason coaching trends indicate that O’Brien takes these results with more vigor than Reid does — and I do prefer the Houston quarterback depth. 25* NFLx AFC Preseason Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Rays (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (971) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Stanek and Andrew Cashner. THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (57-56) has won four of their last seven games after winning the opening game of this series over the Orioles by a 4-3 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAYS MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: Tampa Bay has won 34 of their last 53 games after a victory. The Rays have also won 21 of their last 28 games at home. This is also Tampa Bay’s eighth straight game at home — and they have won 11 of their last 13 games after playing at least six straight games at home. They give the ball to Stanek to make this start — he is 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 0.39 ERA with a .150 opponent’s batting average. He will give way to the bullpen after an inning or two (as usual) — and the Tampa Bay bullpen enjoys a 2.99 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP at home this season. The combination of Stanek and the Rays’ bullpen should find success against this Orioles team that has lost 40 of their last 58 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and they have also lost 43 of their last 52 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Baltimore (34-79) has lost 9 straight games when attempting to avenge a loss by at least one run. The Orioles have also lost 40 of their last 51 games on the road — and they have lost 33 of their last 41 road games as an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. They counter with Cashner who is 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.40 mark with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .322. The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 6 road games with Cashner on the hill. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game — and they have won 14 of their last 20 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Tampa Bay bullpen has logged in at least 5 innings in three straight games, they are supported by a historical angle that has been 74% effective since 1997. In the month of August, favorites with a bullpen that has pitched at least 4 innings in three straight games have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 31 of the last 42 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay is an undervalued team this season — and the Orioles are in the tank. With the Rays’ priced in the -170 range, they are in intriguing money-line underdog minus the -1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB American League East Run-Line of the Month with the Tampa Bay Rays (972) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (971) listing both starting pitchers Ryne Stanek and Andrew Cashner. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Rangers (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Seattle Mariners (963) listing both starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Marco Gonzales. THE SITUATION: Texas (50-65) has won four of their last six games with their 11-4 victory over the Mariners last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RANGERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Rangers have won 5 of their last 7 games after a win — and they have won 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Texas has also won 38 of their last 62 games in the month of August. They give the ball to Gallardo who is 6-1 with a 6.50 RRA and a 1.62 WHIP in eight starts (11 games) this year. The right-hander surrendered 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work against the Orioles in his last start — but he still sports a sparkling 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The Rangers have won 6 straight home games with Gallardo facing a team with a winning record. He faces a slumping Mariners’ lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .239 batting average along with a .277 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .629. Seattle (65-49) has lost 4 of their last 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mariners have also lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Seattle has also lost 7 of their last 9 games on the road. They counter with Gonzales who is 2-6 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The left-hander has not been as good on the road where he has a 3.80 ERA with a .259 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.12 ERA with a .252 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Rangers’ lineup that is scoring 7.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .256 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .791 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has opened as a money-line favorite in the -150 price range for this afternoon contest. While the Rangers are intriguing as a money-line underdog play, I much prefer taking the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price well below my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB Getaway Game Run-Line of the Month with the Texas Rangers (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Seattle Mariners (963) listing both starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Marco Gonzales. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (34-78) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 9-6 win in Texas. Tampa Bay (56-56) has lost three straight games with their 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Sunday. After a travel day yesterday, these two teams begin their series tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, this is the Orioles’ seventh straight game on the road — and not only have they  played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after playing at least their previous six games away from home but they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Cobb who is 3-14 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.93 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in thirteen starts. Cobb’s teams have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when they are priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .254 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .740 over that span — and all those numbers are above their season average. Tampa Bay has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Rays have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. The Rays are big money-line favorites priced in the -160 range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when priced at -150 or higher. Tampa Bay will be looking to avenge an 11-5 loss back on July 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. They counter with Glasnow who is 1-2 with a 4.27 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP this season. He will be making his first start for the Rays since being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline. The right-hander had an ugly 7.76 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) at home last season — and has not been as effective at home almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season where he has a 1.43 WHIP and a  .232 opponent’s batting average in 38 1/3 innings as compared to his 1.40 WHIP and a .213 opponent’s batting average in 20 2/3 innings on the road. Glasgow’s teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Orioles lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .303 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 over that span. The Over is also 13-3-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-30-3 combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: The number for this game is in the relatively low 7.5 to 8 range — perhaps because of the respective offenses in this game along with some optimism regarding Glasnow’s prospects as a starting pitcher. But both these teams are hitting the ball well as of late — and Glasnow has yet to see significant improvement in his command which is why he was relegated to the bullpen this season by the Pirates before being traded to Tampa Bay. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago White Sox (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Covey and Lance Lynn. THE SITUATION: New York (68-42) blew a 4-1 lead in the 9th inning last night to lose to the Red Sox in 10 innings by a 5-4 score. Chicago (41-70) has won four straight games with their 8-7 win in Tampa Bay yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WHITE SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Yankees got swept in Fenway over the weekend — and they have now lost 5 straight games on the road. The New York bullpen has been saddled with a 7.06 ERA over their last five games — and they have lost 11 of their last 17 games when their bullpen has an ERA of 7.00 or higher in their last five games. They give the ball to Lynn who is 7-8 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in twenty starts (21 appearances). This is Lynn’s second appearance for the Yankees since being acquired from Minnesota — but this will be his first start on the road in pinstripes where he sees his ERA rise to an ugly 7.08 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .296 in eleven starts. Lynn’s teams have lost 6 of their last 7 road games with Lynn pitching as the favorite. He faces a White Sox team that has won 5 of their last 7 home games when facing right-handed starting pitchers. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 games against AL East opponents. The White Sox have also been dangerous home dogs who have won outright 26 of their last 48 home games as a money-line underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Covey who is 4-7 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander has been over a run and a half better at home where he has a 4.18 ERA in six starts. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 home games with Covey pitching as an underdog priced at +100 or higher. He faces a slumping Yankees team that is scoring only 4.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .209 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .623 over that span. New York has lost 5 of their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the White Sox are being outscored by -1.3 Runs-Per-Game, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 77% effective over the last five seasons. Lynn is making his first start since July 21st — and home underdogs who are being outscored by at least -1.0 Runs-Per-Game facing a starting pitcher who has not made a start in at least seven days have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 50 of the last 65 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: With the Yankees reeling, they are vulnerable against a White Sox team that is playing better baseball as of late. Chicago might pull the upset — but take the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with it priced below my -150 threshold. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Run-Line of the Year with the Chicago White Sox (964) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Yankees (963) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Covey and Lance Lynn. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (928) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (927) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Ryan Borucki. THE SITUATION: Toronto (49-59) snapped a three-game losing streak yesterday with their 7-3 victory over the Mariners.

REASONS TO TAKE SEATTLE MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Mariners (63-46) have bounced-back to won 27 of their last 44 games after a loss. Seattle has also won 26 of their last 38 games at home — and they have won 21 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Gonzales who is 12-5 with a 3.37 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The left-hander has been outstanding as of late as he owns a sparkling 1.57 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP over his last five starts with 31 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed just two earned runs in two straight starts — and the Mariners have won 9 straight games when Gonzales has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight games. Gonzales has also been more effective at home where he owns a 2.88 ERA in ten starts as compared to his 3.80 ERA when on the road. Seattle has won 6 straight home games with Gonzales on the hill. He should pitch very well against this Blue Jays team that has lost 25 of their last 32 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Toronto has lost 8 of their last 10 games after a win — and they have also lost 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. It was a bullpen outing in that win last night with Tyler Clippard getting a rare start after pitching just one inning — and they have lost 14 of their last 18 games after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 7 innings. The Blue Jays have also lost 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Borucki who is 0-2 with a 2.83 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP in six starts. The sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.45 and 4.26 moving forward. The lefty has struggled on the road where he sees his ERA skyrocket to a 4.80 ERA with a 1.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .308 in three starts. He faces a Mariners team that has won 14 of their last 20 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Lastly, because Borucki has allowed only two combined earned runs over his last two starts, Toronto falls into an empirical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 56% effective over the last five seasons. The Blue Jays are scoring 4.5 Runs-Per-Game — and teams using a starting pitcher who has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight starts now facing an American League starting pitcher with an ERA no higher than 3.50 have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the -190 to +165 price range) in 62 of the last 110 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle is priced higher than my -150 money-line threshold — but with Gonzales being in such fine form (and being a bit underrated) facing an inconsistent Blue Jays team, taking the Mariners as a money-line underdog minus the -1.5 Run-Line is a strong play. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Year with the Seattle Mariners (928) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Toronto Blue Jays (927) listing both starting pitchers Marco Gonzales and Ryan Borucki. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Saskatchewan Roughriders (373) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (374). THE SITUATION: Saskatchewan (3-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 34-22 loss to Calgary last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. Edmonton (4-2) has won their last two games with their 44-23 victory in Montreal as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE SASKATCHEWAN PLUS THE POINTS: The Roughriders should bounce-back with a better effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread defeat. Saskatchewan did win the first down and yardage battle while also controlling the Time of Possession with the undefeated Stampeders in that contest. A -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a punt return for a touchdown did the Riders in that game. They have reason for optimism in this contest as Saskatchewan gets two important players back from injury. Defensive back Nick Marshall returns which will allow head coach Chris Jones to return Huron Carter to his preferred position as a wide receiver — and, frankly, that will help both sides of the ball since Carter was beginning to get burned by speedy wideouts. More importantly, starting QB Zack Collars returns from the Injured List and will make the start in this game. The former CFL Most Outstanding Player is a significant upgrade over backup quarterback Brandon Bridge who passed for only 147 yards last week. The offense has been the issue holding this team back with Collaros on the shelf. The Saskatchewan defense has been quite good by holding their opponents to just 316.2 total YPG. This outstanding defense should help keep them close against the Eskimos as they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 39 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Edmonton has enjoyed a soft early-season schedule which has featured four games against inferior East Division foes. QB Mike Reilly passed for 415 yards last week against the weak Alouettes’ defense but that may be the recipe for a big letdown now. The Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Edmonton has not enjoyed much of a home field advantage as they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games with the Total set at least at 52. Lastly, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Edmonton is currently considered the second best team in the CFL after the Calgary team that Saskatchewan lost to last week. But asking them to cover a point spread in the touchdown range against this Roughriders team getting their first-string quarterback back. 25* CFL West Division Underdog of the Year with the Saskatchewan Roughriders (373) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (374). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Mariners (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Seattle (63-43) won the opening game of this series last night with a 2-0 victory over the Astros.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Seattle is tough at home in Safeco Field where they have won 26 of their last 35 games — and they have also won 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-6 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 1.27 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .265 in eleven starts as compared to his 1.33 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average of .282 on the road. The Mariners have won 5 of their last 7 home games with Leake on the hill. He should fare well against depleted Astros’ lineup missing two key sluggers in Jose Altuve and Chris Correa. Over their last seven games, Houston (67-41) is scoring just 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .186 batting average along with a .258 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .572 over that span. The Astros have lost 5 straight games after a loss (for a five-game losing streak) — and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Houston bullpen has struggled as of late — their bullpen has an ERA of 8.82 over their last five games and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games after enduring a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse over their last seven games. While help is on the way with yesterday’s swap of the banished Ken Giles to Toronto to Roberto Osuna, their likely new closer is not eligible to return from his 75-day suspension until Sunday. The Astros counter with Morton who is 11-2 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.91 mark along with a 1.25 WHIP in eight starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.38 and 3.20 moving forward. Houston has lost 4 straight games with Morton facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Mariners team that has won 20 of their last 26 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Astros have a team batting average of just .210 over their last fifteen games, they fall into an empirical angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 69% effective over the last five seasons. Houston’s bullpen has not allowed an earned run in their last two games — but favorites with a team batting average of .240 or less over their last fifteen games with a bullpen that has not allowed an earned run in two straight games have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line (when priced in the +135 to -190 price range) in 68 of these last 98 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: While I find Seattle a solid play with the money-line, I much prefer investing in the valuable +1.5 Run-Line with that price being under my -150 price threshold. 25* MLB American League Run-Line of the Month with the Seattle Mariners (974) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Houston Astros (973) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (915) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Boston (74-33) has won three straight games with their 3-0 win over the Twins yesterday. Philadelphia (58-47) has lost three in a row after their 4-0 loss to Cincinnati.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED SOX WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Boston has won a decisive 37 of their last 51 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Red Sox have also won 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 23 of their last 28 games in Interleague play. Additionally, Boston has won 23 of their last 31 games when favored in the -100 to -150 price range. They give the ball to Price who is 11-6 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty starts. The left-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.69 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .229 in eight starts as compared to his 4.50 ERA with a .254 opponent’s batting average on the road. He should fare well against this Phillies team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road games against left-handed starting pitchers. Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 11 games in Interleague play against teams with a winning record. The Phillies have also lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have lost 14 of their last 17 games played in Boston. They counter with Nola who is 12-3 with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 2.86 mark. The sabermetrics also raise concerns as both Nola’s SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.50 and 3.53 moving forward. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 14 road games with Nola facing a team with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Getting the opportunity to invest in the Red Sox at home in Fenway Park when they are priced below -150 is uncommon (which it was was in most locations when I released this play Sunday night — the price has moved up this afternoon. While there are still -150s available, this is still a strong play even if you have to pay a price higher than that. Nola’s presence on the mound for the Phillies is why this price is lower — but he is not nearly as invincible on the road as he is when pitching at home in Philadelphia where his ERA is 1.99. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Game of the Month with the money-line on the Boston Red Sox (916) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (915) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (53-51) has won three of their last four games after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 6-2 score over the Cubs.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total as an underdog. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in seven starts (and fourteen appearances). The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander has been overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.79 and 4.75 respectively moving forward. Gant is making his first start since July 21st (while pitching an inning of relief on Wednesday) — and the Cards have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Gant pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Cubs team that has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Gant will likely not get much support from his bullpen in this game either as the St. Louis bullpen has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP over the last seven days. Chicago (60-44) has lost four of their last six games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Cubs have also played 7 of their last 8 third games of a series Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NL Central foes. They counter with Hendricks who is 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.70 mark along with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Hendricks facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these starting pitchers will likely give up their share of runs tonight. Look for a higher-scoring game on national television tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jacob DeGrom. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (54-51) got back to their winning ways last night by winning the second game of this series over the Mets by a 5-4 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Pittsburgh had won eleven straight games before losing their previous two contests before last night. The Pirates have won 10 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have also won 9 of their last 10 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Pittsburgh has also won 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. They send out Williams who is 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 4.06 and 1.20 marks in eleven starts. The Pirates have won 5 of their last 6 home games with Williams facing a team with a losing record. He should fare well against this Mets team that has lost 11 of their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. New York has lost 25 of their last 35 games after allowing at least 5 runs. The Mets have also lost a decisive 41 of their last 56 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeGrom who is 5-5 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in twenty starts. The sabermetrics indicate he should be surrendering about a run more per game with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.97 and 2.79 moving forward. And while the right-hander has been absolutely nasty at home where he has a 1.66 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and .188 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts, those numbers do climb to a 1.79 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a more manageable .216 opponent’s batting average when on the road. New York has lost 4 of their last 5 road games with DeGrom on the hill. DeGrom does come off a strong outing where he allowed only three runs (two earned) in 8 innings of work at home versus the Padres — but the Mets have lost 9 of their last 12 games with DeGrom looking to follow up a Quality Start. New York has also lost 4 of their last 5 games with DeGrom facing the Pirates. That is not a good sign when facing this hot Pirates team that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .298 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .873. Pittsburgh has also won 8 of their last 9 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, because the Mets have a bullpen ERA of 4.73 this season, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 76% effective since 1997. New York has a team On-Base Percentage of .305 this season — and National League road favorites with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or higher along with an On-Base Percentage no higher than .310 have then failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 55 of the last 72 situations (when priced in the +160 to +115 price range) when these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is a solid play as a money-line underdog in this game at home against a tanking Mets team — even with DeGrom on the hill. But with the Run-Line price below my -150 threshold, my preferred investment is to buy the valuable +1.5 Run-Line to offer some “DeGrom Insurance” in case he pitches a gem. 25* MLB Run-Line Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Pirates (906) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the New York Mets (905) listing both starting pitchers Trevor Williams and Jacob DeGrom. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (901) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (902) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Miles Mikolas. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (51-51) won the opening game of this series last night with their 5-2 win over Chicago (60-43).

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has bounced-back to win a decisive 60 of their last 88 games after a loss. Additionally, the Cubs have won 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They give the ball to Quintana who is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in nineteen starts. The left-hander faced this Cardinals team last Sunday and allowed only two earned runs in 7 innings of work to earn the victory. Quintana had been dealing with a sore shoulder but the All-Star Break may have been just what the doctor ordered as he got eleven days off before that start — and the five days of rest should serve him here. Quintana has been more effective away from Wrigley Field where he has a 3.06 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .233 in eleven starts on the road as compared to his 5.02 ERA along with a 1.47 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .270 when pitching at home. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 road games with Quintana facing a team with a winning record. St. Louis (52-51) has lost 7 straight games after a loss — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, St. Louis has lost 6 of their last 8 games at home. They counter with Mikolas who is 10-3 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in twenty starts. But the sabermetrics are calling for significant regression as both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.99 and 3.73 moving forward. Those analytics are eerily similar to his recent results. Over his last eight starts, Mikolas has an ERA of 3.80 along with a WHIP of 1.27. The book on the right-hander may explain why he has been losing some of his effectiveness after a strong opening to the season after he spent the last few seasons pitching in Japan. Mikolas also sees his ERA rise to a 3.23 mark in his nine starts during the day. His teams have also lost 4 straight games when he is pitching at home with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range.

FINAL TAKE: These two starting pitchers seem to be moving in opposite directions as this season moves forward. That only fuels the advantage the Cubs already have in this game being the better overall team. 25* MLB FS1-TV Game of the Month with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (901) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (902) listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Miles Mikolas. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-2) comes off a 29-25 win over British Columbia last week as a 6.5-point favorite. Hamilton (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 upset loss at home to Saskatchewan where they were -10.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Ottawa rushed for only 67 yards in the game after managing only 35 rushing yards the previous week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. Now the Redblacks go back on the road where they are scoring only 21.0 PPG — but they are also allowing only 21.0 PPG while holding their opponents to just 332.0 total YPG. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against East Division foes — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of July. Hamilton saw 51 combined points scored in their last game — but that game also saw two punt returns for touchdowns which added significantly to that tally. The Tiger-Cats defense has stalled as of late with QB Jeremiah Masoli has thrown only one TD pass in his last three games. Head coach June Jones’ offense may not be making enough halftime adjustments as they have scored only 9 combined points in the second halves of their last two games. They were held scoreless in the last 21:42 minutes of their loss to the Roughriders last Thursday. Hamilton has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Tiger-Cats have also played 38 of their last 53 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 51 of their last 77 home games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 range. Lastly, Hamilton has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is rather high with it currently in the mid-50s. There is strong value for taking the Under with both these teams experiencing issues on offense. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (58-44) won the opening game of this series last night over Cincinnati (45-58) by a 9-4 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have won three straight games as well as five of their last seven contests — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. Philadelphia has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Phillies have played 4 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts (21 games). The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. Pivetta has also taken a nose dive since his ERA peaked at a 3.23 mark back on May 21st. In his 48 2/3 innings since, Pivetta has 6.29 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP. And in his last four starts, Pivetta has been even worse with an 8.82 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 4 games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that has seen the Over go 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last 11 games after a loss — and the Over is also 18-6-3 in the Reds’ last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 14-3-2 in Cincinnati’s last 19 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in nine starts. He has surrendered 14 home runs this season after giving up two bombs in his last start against the Pirates. The right-hander has been worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.57 mark along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a Phillies team that has scored 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .812. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has been a disaster for the last two months while struggling on the road even during his encouraging start to the season.— and the Reds have been an Over machine as of late. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Nick Kingham and Steven Matz. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (53-50) saw their eleven-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 4-0 loss in Cleveland. New York (42-57) has won two straight games after they defeated San Diego by a 6-4 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Pittsburgh has still won thirteen of their last sixteen games — and they have won 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Pirates return home where they have won 6 straight games — and they have won 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Pittsburgh has not allowed more than four runs in six straight games — and they have won 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than four runs in at least six games. They give the ball to Kingham who is 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in ten starts. The rookie right-hander has been tough at home where he enjoys a 2.90 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 as compared to his 5.54 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 when on the road. Kingham has produced three straight Quality Starts that have resulted in Pirates’ victories. He has a sparkling 2.89 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP in the 18 2/3 innings over that span. He should thrive against this Mets’ team that has lost 4 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. New York has also lost 10 of their last 14 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Mets have lost 23 of their last 31 games after a victory. And while they have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then lost 11 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Furthermore, New York has lost 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have also lost a decisive 40 of their last 54 road games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Matz who is 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in nineteen starts. The lefty has been less effective on the road where he owns a 1.40 WHIP with a .251 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as opposed to his 1.20 WHIP and .235 opponent’s batting average when at home. The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Matz starting against a team with a winning record. New York has also lost 17 of their last 21 games with Matz pitching in the second-half of the season. Matz has lost three straight starts while being saddled with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over that span. That likely spells trouble when facing this hot Pirates’ lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .315 batting average along with a .348 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .902 over that span. Pittsburgh has won 4 of their last 5 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates were overnight favorites in the -175 price range — but, as of 9 AM ET this morning, they are priced at or below -150 in about half the books I survey. Perhaps it is the hand injury to Sterling Marte combined with the Mets winning their last two games that has enticed some bettors into taking the underdog? With this situation dropping to my -150 money-line threshold guideline, let’s attack. 25* MLB National League Game of the Year with the money-line on the Pittsburgh Pirates (904) versus the New York Mets (903) listing both starting pitchers Nick Kingham and Steven Matz. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (976) versus the San Francisco Giants (975) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Seattle (60-41) has lost two of their last three games with their 4-3 loss to the Giants in the opening game of this two-game series.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARINERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco (52-50) has still lost four of their last six games — and they have lost 5 of the last 7 games after a win. The Giants have also lost 33 of their last 45 road games after a victory — and they have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road overall. Holland gets the spot start for Jeff Samardzija who is still dealing with a sore shoulder. Holland has a 5-8 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP which includes 18 starts along with four bullpen appearances. The left-hander sees his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.13 and 1.47 marks when on the road this year. Furthermore, Holland’s teams have lost 22 of their last 33 road games with Holland pitching as an underdog. Seattle has won 21 of their last 31 games after a loss — and they have also lost 10 of their last 11 games after a loss by just one run. The Mariners have still won 24 of their last 33 games at home — and they have thirteen of their last seventeen home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Leake who is 8-6 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander does thrive during day games where he owns a 3.67 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in eight starts. He comes off a nice outing back on July 15th in Colorado where he allowed only two runs (one earned) in 6 innings of work. Seattle has won 6 of their last 8 games with Leake looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces a Giants team that is hitting only .237 batting average over their last seven games with a .296 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .659 over that span. San Francisco has lost 6 straight games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: I considered the Mariners yesterday with the Run-Line before James Paxton was scratched from making the start with him not being ready to come off the disabled list. Then with the money-line price dropping to the -120 range with Roenis Elias making the spot start, I made the correct decision to pass on that side play. This afternoon’s play on the Mariners is much better — so let’s attack. 25* MLB Getaway Game of the Month is with the money-line on the Seattle Mariners (976) versus the San Francisco Giants (975) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Marlins (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urena and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (53-43) enters this series looking to rebound from a 6-2 loss in Washington yesterday. Miami (43-58) looks to bounce-back from a 6-4 loss in Tampa Bay yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MARLINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Braves have lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Atlanta has also lost 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Newcomb who is 8-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a  1.28 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.61 and 4.35 respectively. Newcomb has not been as effective on the road where he has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in eleven starts. The Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 games with Newcomb pitching on the road. Miami has won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss — and they have won 4 straight games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They counter with Urena who is 2-9 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics for this right-hander indicate he is undervalued as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.93 and 3.86 moving forward. Urena has also been more effective at home where he has a 4.26 ERA with an opponent’s batting average of .256 in twelve starts as compared to his 4.61 ERA and .263 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Marlins have won 4 straight games with Urena facing a team with a winning record. Lastly, because Urena is starting for the first time since July 15th, Miami is supported by an empirical angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 78% effective over the last five seasons. The Marlins are being outscored by -1.1 Runs-Per-Game this season — and home underdogs who are being outscored by at least -1.0 Runs-Per-Game using a starting pitcher who has played with at least seven days of rest have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 47 of the last 60 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is a fine play as a small money-line underdog. With the price of the Run-Line being less than my -150 threshold, my preferred play which will produce more long-term profits is to take the Marlins with the valuable +1.5 Run-Line. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Miami Marlins (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Atlanta Braves (955) listing both starting pitchers Jose Urena and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (50-48) won the second-game of their double-header with the Cubs yesterday with a 6-3 score that avenged a 7-2 loss to Chicago (57-40) in the afternoon. These NL Central rivals have split the first four games of this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Cardinals have played 5 straight road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record — and they have played 18 of their last 26 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Mikolas who is 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in nineteen starts. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.01 and 3.78 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.56 mark along with a 1.10 WHIP in ten starts. St. Louis has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total wit Mikolas facing a team with a winning record. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .387 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. Chicago has also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. Chicago has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 13 of the last 17 home games Over the Total as a money-line favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. They counter with Quintana who is 8-6 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an ERA of 4.63 and 4.38 moving forward. The left-hander has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in seven starts. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Quintana on the mound facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .272 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .789 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers relative to their sabermetrics. 25* MLB TBS-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (909) and the Chicago Cubs (910) listing both starting pitchers Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. THE SITUATION: Chicago (57-39) won the opening game of their double-header with St. Louis (49-48) by a 7-2 score this afternoon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OVER: St. Louis has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss — and they have also played 8 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when a money-line underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. St. Louis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. The sabermetrics are calling for regression as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.48 and 4.51 moving forward. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.69 mark along with a 1.30 WHIP. He faces a hot-hitting Cubs’ lineup that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .275 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .776 over that span. Chicago has also played 6 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Furthermore, the Cubs have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total at home. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Montgomery who is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP this season. The left-hander has struggled since entering the Cubs’ rotation as he has failed to register a Quality Start in four straight starts. The sabermetrics also call for regression for Montgomery with both his SIERA and xFIP calling for an Era of 4.55 and 4.52 moving forward. He has also not been as effective at home where he is saddled with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP along with a .308 opponent’s batting average. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Montgomery on the mound. He faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is scoring 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .291 batting average along with a .355 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .817 over that span. The Cardinals have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINA TAKE: Both these teams are swinging hot bats. Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with overrated starting pitchers. 25* MLB Saturday Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals (961) and the Chicago Cubs (962) listing both starting pitchers John Gant and Mike Montgomery. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (919) versus the Kansas City Royals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (44-50) closed out the first-half of the regular season winning nine of their last eleven games with an 11-7 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. Kansas City (27-68) comes off a 10-1 loss in Chicago against the White Sox.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 6 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have won 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Twins have won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They give the ball to Gibson who is 4-6 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in nineteen starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .197 in nine starts. Minnesota has won 20 of their last 26 road games with Gibson facing a team with a winning record. Kansas City has lost a decisive 44 of their last 62 games after a loss — and they have also lost 11 of their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. Furthermore, the Royals have lost 22 of their last 27 home games as a money-line underdog of at least +100 — and they have lost 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Duffy who is 5-8 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in twenty starts. Duffy has pitched quite well on the road as of late where he has a sparkling 1.21 ERA since May 24th. But it is a different story when he is at home where he owns an ERA of 6.75 with a 1.63 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .291 in seven starts. Kansas City has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Duffy on the hill. The sabermetrics are not encouraging either with both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.76 and 4.96 moving forward. Lastly, Duffy faces a Twins team that has scored 6.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .316 batting average along with a .396 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .874 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota remains a bit undervalued with their overall Won/Loss record obscuring their recent improved play. Gibson has been quite good this year — especially on the road — while Duffy has struggled in Kauffman Stadium. 25* MLB American League Central Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (919) versus the Kansas City Royals (920) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ottawa Redblacks (374) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (373). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 27-3 loss at home to Calgary last Thursday. British Columbia (2-2) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win over Winnipeg last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDBLACKS MINUS THE POINTS: Ottawa could not have played much worse against the Stampeders as they were burdened by an awful -5 net turnover margin. Expect them to protect the football better this week. The Redblacks have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. Ottawa has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. This Redblacks team is a season removed from winning the Grey Cup. They made the playoffs last year despite losing six games by a combined 20 points. They finished the year by winning seven of their last ten games but were upset by Saskatchewan in the first round of the playoffs. This should be a good offensive team with quarterback Trevor Harris under center who led the CFL in passing efficiency last season along with a 46 to 15 touchdown to interception ratio. Ottawa should play much better on offense in this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than 3 points in the first half of their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to for more than 6 points in their last game. Furthermore, while the Redblacks rushed for only 35 yards while gaining a total of 169 yards against Calgary, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the spread in 17 of their last 22 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards in their last game. Ottawa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of July. British Columbia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win at home. BC benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Blue Bombers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they had a +2 net turnover margin. Veteran QB Travis Lulay took over under center for the struggling Jonathan Jennings and he completed 28 of 41 passes for 326 yards. But Lulay might struggle now playing in a hostile environment. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road. British Columbia also suffered a big loss on defense with their star linebacker Solomon Elimimian who went on the Six-Week Injured Reserve earlier this week with an injury.

FINAL TAKE: Ottawa should bounce-back with a strong effort after playing their worst game of the season last week. Both the Redblacks’ losses this season are against the Stampeders. British Columbia has lost both their games on the road this year by a 19 and 22 points respectively. 25* Canadian Football League Game of the Year with the Ottawa Redblacks (374) minus the points versus the British Columbia Lions (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Carlos Martinez. THE SITUATION: Chicago (53-38) closed out the first-half of the regular season winning their last three games after their 7-4 win in San Diego on Sunday. St. Louis (48-46) begins the second-half of the regular season coming off a 6-4 victory over the Reds in the first game under interim manager Mike Schildt after the organization fired Mike Matheny on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago has won 8 of their last 11 games after a victory — and they have also won 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Cubs return home to Wrigley Field for the first time since July 8th — and they have won 36 of their last 52 home games after being on the rod for at least seven days. Chicago has also won a decisive 47 of their last 70 games at home — and this includes them winning four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Hendricks who is 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports an ERA of 3.18 along with a 0.97 WHIP and .207 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 4.70 ERA along with a 1.43 WHIP and .282 opponent’s batting average on the road. The Cubs have won 11 of their last 13 home games as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range with Hendricks on the mound. Chicago has also won 7 of their last 10 opening games to a new season with Hendricks on the hill. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 6 games after a win — and they have also lost 14 of their last 20 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. And while the Cardinals have played their last three games Over the Total, they have then lost 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Overs. They counter with Martinez who is 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in sixteen starts this season. The right-hander had velocity issues that were negatively impacting him for much of the year but that seemed to be getting better in his last few starts. But Martinez the sabermetrics are not encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.57 and 4.60 moving forward. Martinez has consistently been not as effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.57 along with a 1.39 WHIP in seven starts as compared to his 2.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home. St. Louis has lost 5 of their last 8 road games with Martinez pitching as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I am not surprised that the Cardinals won their first game after Matheny was sacked last Saturday — but his firing does not improve the quality of the roster at his disposal. While St. Louis is looking for their identity, the Cubs are looking to continue their improved play as they have a deeper playoff run on their minds. With the Cubbies possessing a significant edge in the starting pitching battle, let’s attack. 25* MLB ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (952) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (951) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and Carlos Martinez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. THE SITUATION: Chicago (54-38) has won five of their last seven games with their 11-6 victory over the Padres.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has an outstanding 1.98 ERA in nine starts at home — but he sees that mark rise by nearly a run to a 2.96 mark on the road. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression with the veteran with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.67 and 4.68 marks moving forward. Lester’s velocity has dropped below 91 MPH which is his lowest mark in over ten years. His Hard-Hit Rate is 33.1% which is not only a career high but also higher than the MLB average which is in the 31% range. The Cubs have played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total with Lester pitching with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. He faces a Padres team that has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (40-58) has also lost five of their last six games — and they have then played 40 of their last 59 home games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The Padres have also played 28 of their last 46 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Lauer who is 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in fifteen starts. The sabermetrics are also calling for regression for the rookie with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.71 and 4.53 respectively. San Diego has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with Lauer on the mound with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with Lauer facing a team from the NL Central. He faces a Cubs team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Lester is simply very overvalued right now. We want to try to take advantage of that when he is pitching away from Wrigley Field. While we can’t be zombies to take the Over (or against the Cubs) whenever Lester is on the mound right now, there is enough complementary evidence on the Padres’ ledger to take make a strong investment in the Over. 25* MLB Pre-All-Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (911) and the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Jon Lester and Eric Lauer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing France (9704) with the Goal-Line versus Croatia (9703). THE SITUATION: France (5-1-0) reached the World Cup Finals with their 1-0 win over Belgium on Tuesday. Croatia (6-0-0) joined them with this opportunity to win this championship the next day with their 2-1 win over England.

REASONS TO TAKE FRANCE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: I give a lot of deference to this Croatia team that has a starting XI that has played in a combined eight championship matches for their professional leagues. Luka Modric may very well be the best player on the pitch in this match. Yet I think there is just too much for them to overcome. I was impressed that they outplayed England in the second-half even without going to one substitute after playing two straight matches that needed extra time. However, that may speak more to that Three Lions team being overrated (especially after being dominated by Belgium in the Consolation match on Saturday) — and manager Zlatko Dalic may simply feel uncomfortable with the depth of his roster. But the fact remains that the Vatreni has played three straight knockout stage matches where that required the 30 minutes of extra time which means they have played a full match more than Les Bleus — and they will be playing this match with one less day of rest. Croatia has also trailed in all three of their Knockout Stage matches so they may be playing with fire when it comes to their playing the role of Cardiac Kids. Frankly, their strength of schedule has to also be called into question. Their Group was originally considered very difficult with Argentina, Iceland, and Nigeria — but while those latter two sides were of quality, Lionel Messi and company appeared to be overrated with the benefit of hindsight. Croatia faced Denmark and Russia in the Knockout Stage before defeating that England team that did not appear to be on the same level as the Belgium team that France just defeated. Les Bleus have only trailed in ten minutes in this tournament when Argentina took a 2-1 lead in their first Knockout Stage match — and they stormed back to score the next three goals in that victory. France has an average age of 26 while perhaps having the deepest roster of the entire tournament. Modric and a number of his teammates are on the wrong side of 30. And while the Croatia midfield eventually outclassed the Three Lions’ midfield on Wednesday, they will have a much harder task when battling this French midfield led by N’Golo Kante who will present the biggest challenge Modric has faced in this event. All this work that the Vatreni will have to manage gets compounded by the unique threat the 19-year-old sensation Kylian Mbappe presents with his speed. I would not be surprised if he gets free and burns this Croatia defense like he did against that older Argentina side. The French defense has been spectacular — they have allowed only four goals in their six matches with three of them occurring against in that Argentina match that became very aggressive. While I have been frustrated with Paul Pogba over the last two seasons, he is finally embracing the defense-first role in the midfield that Jose Mourinho has been trying to get him to play with Manchester United. Pogba has formed a dominant defensive front in the midfield when joining his energies with Kante and letting Mbappe shine in the spotlight up top with Antoine Griezman and Olivier Giroud. As opposed to many critics, I give Croatia enough credit to think that their forwards and midfield are a push — at worse — with the French offerings. But Les Bleus clearly have a big edge in talent in their backfield and with their goalkeeper Hugo Lloris.

FINAL TAKE: I think about the Euro Finals where France was upset by Portugal in a very similar betting situation. I took Lew Bleus that day thinking they were more in form and impressed that they had just defeated a Germany team that had won the World Cup in 2014. This is a roster ready for this moment — and they will not look past the Croatians especially with the professional pedigree of Modric and many of his teammates that are the best players in La Liga and Serie 1. When I start tallying up the intangibles I value when handicapping soccer, the ledger just becomes overwhelming for the French. 25* World Cup Match of the Year with France (9704) with the Goal-Line versus Croatia (9703). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (51-42) has won two of their last three games with their 6-5 victory over the Yankees on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians have played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory. Additionally, Cleveland has now played five straight Overs — and they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Overs. Furthermore, the Indians have played 11 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9-9.5 range — and the Over is 17-4-1 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in eighteen starts. The sabermetrics are not encouraging for Clevinger with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.03 and 3.94 moving forward. The left-hander has not been as effective at home where he has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in nine starts. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Indians’ last 4 home games with Clevinger on the hill. These are not good signs when faces the Bronx Bombers who are scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .293 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .843 over that span. New York (61-32) has seen the Over go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games on the road. They counter with Sabathia who is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in seventeen starts. His sabermetrics are also calling for regression with both his SIERA and FIP projecting ERAs of 4.38 and 4.51 moving forward. The left-hander sees his ERA rise to a 4.42 mark along with a 1.40 WHIP in seven starts on the road. Additionally, the Over is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with Sabathia facing a team from the AL Central. He faces an Indians team that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average along with a .335 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .766. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: In this game between two teams swinging hot bats, expect a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Fox-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Yankees (973) and the Cleveland Indians (974) listing both starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (966) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Chris Archer. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-49) has won three straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 11-8 victory over the Rays last night. Tampa Bay (48-46) has lost their last contests in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Minnesota has won 7 of their last 8 games after a win — and they have also won 7 straight games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Twins have also won 10 of their last 11 games at home. They give the ball to Berrios who is 9-7 with a 3.41 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.49 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .179 in eleven starts. Minnesota has won 18 of their last 21 home games with Berrios on the mound. He should enjoy another great performance against this Rays team that has lost 15 of their last 18 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Tampa Bay (48-46) has lost 6 of their last 8 games against opponents that scored at least five runs in their last game. The Rays have also lost 17 of their last 22 games on the road — and this includes them losing eleven of their last thirteen road games against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Archer who is 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in fourteen starts. The right-hander typically struggles when away from home. In eight road starts this season, Archer has a 1.46 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .271 as opposed to his 1.27 WIP and .262 opponent’s batting average at home. Tampa Bay has lost 9 of their last 11 road games with Archer facing a team with a winning record. Archer faces a red-hot Minnesota offense that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .353 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .826 over that span. The Twins have won 8 of their last 9 home games when facing right-handed starting pitchers — and they are won 4 of their last 5 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is playing great baseball right now approaching the All-Star Break. They also have a big edge in starting pitchers with Berrios pitching at home battling Archer who just came off the disabled list and who does his best pitching historically at home in Tropicana Field. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the money-line on the Minnesota Twins (966) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (965) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Chris Archer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between England (9700) and Belgium (9701). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-1) comes off a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Croatia on Wednesday. Belgium (5-0-1) also has to settle for the third-place consolation match after they lost to France on Tuesday by a 1-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These consolation this place matches tend to be higher scoring affairs. Each of the last ten third-place matches have seen at least three combined goals scored with six of these contests producing four or more combined goals. There are a few reasons for the uptick in scoring. First, the fear of losing liberates many managers from employing overly cautious defensive tactics. Teams are less likely to park the proverbial bus in the back — and midfielders are more likely to engage in attacking positions. It is difficult to motivate teams to get up for this match after they just lost in the Semifinals. Engaging in a more aggressive style of play helps to motivate players again. Second, managers often rotate players. There is no sense in pushing players dealing with knocks if the stakes are lower. It also makes sense to use this contest to provide playing time for bench players who have not played as much in this tournament. But this influx of new players can detract from chemistry and cohesion on defense. Third, with the pressure of this single elimination tournament now gone, players tend to play looser without the tentativeness that anxiety often instills. Pressure tends to create lower scoring matches since the onus is on the offense to execute plays to create scoring opportunities. Fourth, some players will still be motivated to score goals if they remain in contention to win the Golden Boot Award for most goals in the World Cup. England’s Harry Kane leads all players with six goals — and he would love to add another one or two goals to that tally to likely clinch his name being placed on that trophy. Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku is also in the mix for that award with four goals so he will also be looking to add to his total. The Red Devils have scored 14 goals in their six matches while the Three Lions have scored 12 times — so these are two teams that are typically scoring at least two goals per match.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams did play in their last Group Stage match back on June 28th which Belgium won by a 1-0 score. Both managers rested key players in that match since both sides had clinched spots in the Knockout Stage. It is unlikely either manager will want to see such a conservative approach in this rematch with nothing at stake except pride and building excitement for their national teams moving forward. 25* World Cup A-List O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between England (9700) and Belgium (9701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Edmonton Eskimos (364) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). THE SITUATION: Toronto (1-2) won their first game of the season last Friday at home when they defeated these Eskimos by a 20-17 score as a 3.5-point underdog. Now, this home-and-home series moves to Edmonton for this turnaround rematch.

REASONS TO TAKE EDMONTON MINUS THE POINTS: The Eskimos outgained the Argonauts by 64 net yards in that game but Red Zone issues played a big role in their upset loss. Edmonton has rebounded to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The Eskimos have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when avenging a same-season loss. Edmonton suffered their third straight game where they lost the turnover battle. The Eskimos have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Toronto may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after an upset win as a home underdog. The Argos have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. QB James Franklin was solid in his first game as the starter after taking over for Ricky Ray who suffered a season-ending head injury. Franklin completed 16 of 24 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception. But he will likely experience a worse game this week having to play in a hostile environment against Eskimos’ coaching staff that will be making adjustments to last week’s game tape. As it is, Edmonton has failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. Lastly, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games against East Division foes.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto is the reigning Grey Cup Champions — and I expected them to play their best game of the year last week after dropping their first two games. But the Argonauts are still a work in progress with new defensive coordinator Mike Archer replacing legendary DC Corey Chamblin — and Franklin is still pretty inexperienced as a starting QB in the league. Edmonton has averaged more than 12 wins in their last four seasons while dealing with the heartbreak of losing in the West Division Finals the last three seasons after winning the Grey Cup in 2015. But many consider the Eskimos the favorite to lift the trophy this season — and this veteran group should bounce-back with a strong effort to avenge their loss from last week back at home. 25* CFL ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Edmonton Eskimos (364) minus the points versus the Toronto Argonauts (363). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. THE SITUATION: Washington (47-46) won the opening game of this series with their 5-4 win over the Mets yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nationals have seen the Under go a decisive 50-24-5 in their last 79 games after a victory. Additionally, Washington has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 range. The Under is also 47-19-6 in Washington’s last 72 road games which includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They give the ball to Roark who is 3-11 with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective away from home as he sees his ERA drop to a 3.63 mark with a 1.23 WHIP and .239 opponent’s batting average in nine road starts as compared to his ugly 5.98 ERA along with a 1.52 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average at home. The Nationals have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Roark on the hill. Roark also usually pitches well against New York given his 3.19 ERA in nineteen career games with thirteen starts. He should fare well against this Mets team that is scoring only 2.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .167 batting average along with a .232 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .534. New York (37-54) has played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Mets have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They get Syndergaard back after he spent the last seven weeks on the disabled list after posting a 4-1 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The right-hander has been better at home in Citi Field throughout his career where he owns a 2.68 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP as opposed to his 3.22 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP on the road. The Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Thor on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should thrive in his return against this Nationals team that has played 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: The Total opened at 7.5 for this game but has jumped a full run in most spots. What looked like a solid Under play before that movement now becomes an outstanding opportunity with combined scores of 8 now cashing tickets. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (903) and the New York Mets (904) listing both starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Noah Syndergaard. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (955) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Max Scherzer. THE SITUATION: Washington (46-46) limps into this series having lost three of their last four games with their 2-0 loss at Pittsburgh. New York (37-53) enters this series coming off a 3-0 win over Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE METS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: The Nationals are a bit overvalued right now. They have lost 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and this includes them losing seven of their last eight road games against teams with a losing record. Washington has also lost 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have also lost 5 of their last 6 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Scherzer who is 11-5 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in nineteen starts. The right-hander has been a bit less effective on the road where he has a 0.98 WHIP and .193 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 0.92 WHIP and microscopic .166 opponent’s batting average at home. The sabermetrics do call for some regression with his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 2.62 and 2.99 which is a bit more manageable for opponents. New York has won 11 of their last 16 games after playing their last three games against fellow NL East opponents. The Mets have also won 5 of their last 8 games straight-up as a money-line underdog priced at least at +150. They counter with Matz who is 4-6 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in seventeen starts. The lefty has been better at home with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225 in nine starts as compared to his 1.33 WHIP and .232 opponent’s batting average on the road. Additionally, the Mets have won 7 of their last 11 games with Matzo pitching at night — and they have also won 4 of their last 5 games with Matz facing a fellow NL East opponents. The Nationals are hitting only .244 this season — and the Mets have won 8 of their last 9 games with Matz facing a team with a batting average no better than .250. He should fare well against this Washington team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Matz has only surrendered one earned run over his last two starts — and New York has won 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than two earned runs in his last start. Furthermore, because the Mets have a low batting average of .144 over their last five games, they are supported by an empirical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. Home underdogs with a batting average no better than .225 over their last five games but using a starting pitcher who has not allowed more than two earned runs in two straight games have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 48 of the last 74 situations (when priced in the +215 to -130 range at +1.5 Runs) where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: The Nationals are big favorites priced in the -200 range. With the Mets still offering a nice return as a small underdog even when getting the valuable +1.5 Run-Line, let’s attack. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the New York Mets (956) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (955) listing both starting pitchers Steven Matz and Max Scherzer. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) versus the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Joey Lucchesi. THE SITUATION: San Diego (40-54) has won two of their last three games with their 4-1 win over the Dodgers last night. While LA opened as a money-line favorite in the -160 range, that has been down in most locations to under -150.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Los Angeles did not meet my minimum expectations as a -1.5 Run-Line play — but with their price dropping to under my -150 maximum threshold, they become a great play with the money-line. The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have also won 7 of their last 10 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game. Los Angeles has also won 15 of their last 21 games on the road. They give the ball to Maeda who is 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander returns from paternity leave as a proud poppy — and he has been more effective on the road where he has a 1.23 WHIP and .221 opponent’s batting average in six starts as compared to his 1.27 WHIP and .236 opponent’s batting average in nine home starts. The Dodgers have won 22 of their last 32 games with Maeda on the mound as a favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. He should fare well against this Padres team that has lost 4 of their last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (40-54) is scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .210 batting average along with a .274 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .619 over that span. The Padres have lost 7 straight games after a win. Furthermore, San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have lost 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Lucchesi who is 4-4 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirteen starts. The lefty has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA and WHIP jump to 3.56 and 1.26 marks in nine starts. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games with Lucchesi pitching against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These money-line propositions are risk-reward calculations. I determined many years ago to enforce a self-imposed ban on taking favorites priced higher than -150 — and, in baseball, consider Run-Line plays in those instances. That requires diligence to continue to monitor line-movement — but that is a good thing since there are a host of good betting opportunities that illuminate themselves by observing a reacting to the betting public (often betting against their activity). With the Dodgers’ price dropping below my -150 threshold, let’s attack with a strong play given the value and strength of this play. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League West Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (911) versus the San Diego Padres (912) listing both starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Joey Lucchesi. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (41-51) has won the opening two games of this series with their 7-4 victory over the Indians.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 9-2-1 in the Reds’ last 12 games after a win — and the Over is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and the Over is 16-4-3 in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Mahle who is 7-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.53 WHIP and .273 opponent’s batting average in ten starts as compared to his 1.24 WHIP and .240 opponent’s batting average in eight home starts. That is not a good sign when facing this Indians team that scored 5.8 Runs-Per-Game at home while posting a .277 batting average with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 in those games. Cleveland (49-41) has seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Indians have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The first two games of this series have gone Over the Total — and Cleveland has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 26-7-2 in the Indians’ last 35 games at home which includes the Over going 16-4-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Cleveland has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total with the number in the 9 to 9.5 range. They counter with Carrasco who is 9-5 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has not been as effective at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.48 mark along with a 1.38 WHIP and .286 opponent’s batting average in eight starts. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Indians’ last 8 home games with Carrasco facing a team with a losing record. He faces a Reds team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .263 batting average along with a .344 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .742 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: Carrasco has consistently seen his home/road splits favor his starts away from home. With Cincinnati hitting the ball well and the Indians a strong offensive club at home, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Interleague Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (925) and the Cleveland Indians (926) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Mahle and Carlos Carrasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between England (9703) and Croatia (9704). THE SITUATION: England (4-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-0 win over Sweden on Saturday. Croatia (5-0-0) matched that accomplishment by surviving facing the most nation Russia by winning a shootout by a 4-3 score after that match was deadlocked at 2-2 after 120 minutes of play.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Croatia is dealing with injury issues. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic injured his calf during that match with the Russians. While he finished the match, he was clearly hampered by that injury. He will start this match but his effectiveness remains in doubt. The Vatreni are also dealing with an injury to their best defensive player in Atletico Madrid’s Sime Vrsalijko who suffered a knock on Saturday. Not only will Croatia miss his play on the pitch but the changes that his absence forces manager Zlatko Dalic to make impacts the cohesion of that back line. These injuries will negatively impact the defensive makeup for this team. The Vatrenia have allowed only one goal via a set piece in this tournament — but they have allowed 22 shots via set pieces which is tied for the most in this tournament. This has been a counterattacking side for much of this World Cup where they have increased their offensive pressure if and when they got into jeopardy — as they did against Russia when the Bears forced extra time by tying that score at 1-1. Surrendering that second goal to Russia in the 115th minute mark does not speak well to the stinginess of their defense in crunch time either since the Bears are not offensive juggernauts. Croatia has scored ten times in their five matches — and seven of those goals were after the first-half when the sense of urgency was amped. England has scored eleven goals in their five matches. Eight of these goals has come from set pieces (including three penalty kicks). The Three Lions are averaging 5.71 shots via set pieces per 90 minutes in this tournament with 1.73 of these shots being on target. They should generate good looks from set pieces against this Croatia side. England has allowed only four goals — but they have benefited from a favorable opening pair of matches against Panama and Tunisia that lacks offensive firepower but who still scored on them twice. In fact, their Quarterfinals match with Sweden was their first clean sheet of this tournament.

FINAL TAKE: This match may start slow with both sides being patient — but before the 90 minute regulation period is over, I expect both sides to have scored with a very good likelihood that at least one of these teams has scored twice. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between England (9703) and Croatia (9704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. THE SITUATION: Seattle (57-34) enters this series coming off a 6-4 win over Colorado on Sunday. Los Angeles (46-45) enters this series after they defeated the Dodgers by a 4-3 score for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mariners have played 8 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Leake who is 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.71 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in eight starts. Leake’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when priced as an underdog in the +100 to +150 price range. He should fare well against this Angels team that has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .251 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .574 OPS over that span. The Angels have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after an off day — and the Under is 15-4-3 in their last 22 games after a victory. Furthermore, the Angels have not allowed more than four runs in each of their last six games — and they have then played 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least six straight contests. Additionally, not only has LA played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total but they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 8.5 to 10 range. They counter with Richards who is 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in fifteen starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he sports a 3.31 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in six starts. The Angels have seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games with Richards on the hill facing a team with a winning record. He should also pitch well against this Mariners team that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .240 batting average along with a .300 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .689 over that span.

FINAL TAKE: In this game between two slumping offenses, expect a low-scoring game with these two underrated starting pitchers on the hill. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Mariners (973) and the Los Angeles Angels (974) listing both starting pitchers Mike Leake and Garrett Richards. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Belgium (9700) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em (or as +0.5 Goals) versus France (9701). THE SITUATION: France (4-1-0) reached the Semifinals of the World Cup with their 2-0 win over Uruguay on Friday. Belgium (5-0-0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 2-1 win over Brazil on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE BELGIUM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Les Bleus were very fortunate to catch Uruguay without Edinson Cavani who suffered a calf injury after scoring both of their goals in their 2-1 win over Portugal in the Round of 16. Cavani plays a key role with fellow forward Luis Suarez in giving that team a potent counterattack while they rely on their outstanding defensive tactics. I think his absence on the pitch in that match was a game-changer. Even without Cavani, La Celeste had the same number of shots as France with 11 while doubling the number of shots on target with four. Les Bleus scored their first goal in the 40th minute of the first-half and added a second goal with a poor play from Uruguay’s keeper Fernando Muslera in the 61st minute. Unfortunately for La Celeste, they see a big drop off in the complementary talent to Suarez when Cavani is off the pitch — just like Cavani has struggled in the Round of 16 in the 2014 World Cup along with the 2016 Copa America when Suarez was not able available. France is considered the likely favorite by many to win this tournament at this point but they have looked shaky at times. They only managed a 1-1 draw versus Denmark in their last Group Stage match before their defense looked porous in their Round of 16 match when an Argentina side that was struggling on offense scored three times against them. Granted, Les Bleus have tons of offensive talent on paper but they scored only nine goals in their five matches — and this speaks to perhaps their talent not being a good match for their schemes. While France has nice talent at forward, the lack of a true center-forward in the group results in these players mostly playing out of their natural position with their club teams. Ideally, that center-forward should be Karim Benzema but he was not selected for this team given a sex tape scandal he is in the middle of. Manager Didier Deschamps also has his team rely on crossing passes into the opponent’s penalty kick area which is not a great fit for taking advantage for all the speed this team possesses since those crosses typically require headers and physical play which does not play to these forwards strengths. France did reach the Finals of the 2014 World Cup but they were the host nation of that tournament and disappointed their home fans when they failed to defeat a Portugal side in the Finals that played most of that match without an injured Cristiano Ronaldo. I just don’t trust the key offensive players for the French. Antoine Griezman plays professionally for Atletico Madrid which is simply not an uber-elite team. Olivier Giroud has been a super-sub for Arsenal and now Chelsea but his weaknesses on defense have held him back from taking a greater role with those teams. And Paul Pogba has struggled to meet his vast potential so far with Manchester United with some of those issues carrying over into this World Cup. Belgium, on the other hand, has the most impressive victory for either of these two teams with their 2-1 victory over Brazil on Friday. Kevin DeBruyne demonstrated why he might be the most dangerous player in the world from 30 yards away from the goal when he scored what turned out to be the game-winning goal in the 31st minute with his screamer that caught the inside corner of the net. Belgium has won all five of their matches in this World Cup. The Red Devils have scored 14 goals in these games while outscoring their five opponents by +9 goals. France has scored only nine times in their five matches with a +5 goal differential. Team cohesion was a concern I had for this team before the tournament — but that is no longer an issue now. This group can play physical or the technical. They are also getting outstanding goaltending from Thibault Courtois who has the experience of winning an English Premier League with Chelsea.

FINAL TAKE: France is still quite young — their time might be four years from now. There is a sense of urgency with this Belgium group that their time is now to fulfill the potential of their golden generation. Les Bleus have the benefit of their recent success of reaching the Finals of the 2016 Euro while the Red Devils lost in the Quarterfinals — but the home field advantage for France was a huge factor in that run. In the end, I prefer the Belgium stars to the French starts right now. 25* World Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Belgium (9700) with the Goal-Line as a pick ‘em (or as +0.5 Goals) versus France (9701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. THE SITUATION: Washington (45-44) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 10-2 loss to Miami. Pittsburgh (41-48) snapped their five-game losing streak with a 4-1 win over the Phillies yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total in the month of July. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 23 of their last 32 home games Under the Total with the number posted in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Nova who is 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in sixteen starts. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he owns a 2.77 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in six starts. The Pirates have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total with Nova on the hill — and they have also seen the Under go 9-1-1 in their last 11 home games with Nova facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Nationals team that has played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Washington (45-44) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on the road after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. The Nationals have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, Washington has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They counter with Rodriguez who is 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work this season after being called up from Triple-A. Manager Davey Martinez has described Rodriguez as having “electric stuff.” He benefits from facing a slumping Pirates lineup that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .287 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .688 during that span. Martinez will also be able to call on his strong bullpen that has a 3.75 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP when pitching on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is listed in the 9/9.5 range mostly because of the uncertainty of Rodriguez — but I expect him to pitch pretty well before the Nationals turn to their bullpen. Nova should pitch well on national television as well. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Jefry Rodriguez and Ivan Nova. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) listing both starting pitchers Alex and Andrew Heaney. THE SITUATION: The Dodgers (48-40) have won five of their last six games with their 3-1 win over the Angels yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Dodgers had a huge month of the dog days of summer last year as well — they have now won 25 of their last 29 games in the month of July. The Dodgers have also won 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Dodgers have also won 20 of their last 27 games in Interleague play. They give the ball to Wood who is 5-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in seventeen starts this season. After a slow start, the left-hander has been outstanding as of late — he owns a 2.19 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP over his last four starts. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road with Wood on the hill. He should fare well against this Angels team that is scoring 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .566 over that span. The Angels have a low batting average of just .158 over their last three games — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 home games after not posting a batting average better than .200 over their last three games. Furthermore, the Angels have lost 11 of their last 16 games after a loss — and they have lost 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they scored only one run. Additionally, the Angels have lost 17 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have lost 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record overall. And this Angels team has lost 10 of their last 12 games when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Heaney who is 4-6 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in fifteen starts. But the left-hander has not been reliable when his team has been off a loss as the Angels have lost their last 8 games when Heaney is starting after a team defeat. Additionally, the Angels have lost 5 of their last 6 home games with Heaney facing a team with a winning record. That is not a good sign when now facing this Dodgers team that is scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .270 batting average along with a .346 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .835 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers are much better team than the Angels — especially since May 16th when they began their current 32-14 hot streak.  Wood was outstanding on the road last season where he had a 2.24 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in thirteen starts. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Angels (980) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (979) listing both starting pitchers Alex and Andrew Heaney. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. THE SITUATION: Chicago (50-36) has won seven of their last eight games with their 8-7 win over the Reds yesterday where they rallied from a 7-4 deficit in the bottom of the 8th inning to score four runs and pull out that comeback victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite priced in the -100 to -150 price range. And the Cubs have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Lester who is 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in seventeen starts. The sabermetrics for the left-hander are screaming “Regression” as both his SIERA and xFIP project his ERA to more than double to a 4.57 and 4.53 marks. Additionally, Chicago has played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with Lester — and they have also seen the Over go 8-1-2 in the last 11 games with Lester facing the Reds. He faces a red-hot Cincinnati lineup that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .283 batting average along with a .368 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .781. The Over is also 12-3-2 in the Reds’ last 17 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati (39-50) has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game. The Over is also 8-2-1 in the Reds’ last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 44 games Over the Total after a blown save. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 5-1-1. They counter with Castillo who is 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in eighteen starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 6.70 ERA along with a 1.53 WHIP in his ten starts on the road. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Castillo. He faces a Cubs’ team that is scoring 7.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .350 batting average along with a .432 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .983 over that span. Additionally, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Lester is extremely overvalued right now — and Castillo has been a nightmare when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark. Both these pitchers are facing lineups that are in the zone right now. Lastly, in the last 13 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 10 times. 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break National League Central Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds (957) and the Chicago Cubs (958) listing both starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Jon Lester. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (356) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (355). THE SITUATION: Edmonton (2-1) rallied from a 12-point deficit in the first-half last Friday to crush British Columbia by a 41-22 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Toronto (0-2) returns to the field after a bye week that came just in time after they got crushed by a 41-7 score at home to Calgary.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ARGONAUTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eskimos are likely due for a letdown after their offensive explosion last week where they generated 517 total yards. Edmonton has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in the last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, while the Eskimos outgained the Lions by +198 net yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +120 yards. This Edmonton team has not been a reliable favorite as of late. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Eskimos are also 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Edmonton also tends to struggle in the heat of summer as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of July. Toronto suffered a tough blow in their last game with a head injury to quarterback Ricky Ray which will likely keep the veteran out the season. This franchise prepared for this possibility of losing Ray when they signed QB James Franklin in the offseason to be the heir apparent under center. The former Eskimo has an outstanding 13:1 touchdown to interception ratio in his career 190 passing attempts that has resulted in 1556 yards. This passing ability along with his mobility has long profiled the former Missouri Tiger to be a great fit in the CFL. The Argonauts won the Grey Cup last year in the first season under head coach Marc Trestman — and this team is likely better than last year’s crop despite the slow start. The bye came at an ideal time for Trestman to tweak his offense to Franklin’s talents. Look for the defense to play much better as well after surrendering 564 yards to the Stampeders — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after allowing at least 550 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Despite playing two lackluster games in their first two contests of the season, I not that concerned about the Boatmen. Calgary was playing with Grey Cup revenge on their minds while their opening loss of the season was a tough matchup on the road in Saskatchewan against a Roughriders team that was also motivated by revenge from a loss to the Argonauts in the East Division Final. Reigning champs have bullseyes on their chest — but it is time for them to step up given the adversity they have faced this season. Don’t be surprised if Toronto wins this game outright — but take the points for some very attractive insurance. 25* CFL Underdog of the Year with the Toronto Argonauts (356) plus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (355). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Croatia (9800) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Russia (9801). THE SITUATION: Croatia (4-0-0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the World Cup last Sunday when they defeated Denmark by a 5-4 mark in the shootout after that match finished in a deadlocked 1-1 score after 120 minutes of play. Russia (3-0-1) also survived via penalty kicks as they shocked Spain by a 4-3 score in the shootout after their match ended in a 1-1 score after the 30 minute extra time period.

REASONS TO TAKE CROATIA MINUS THE -0.5 GOAL-LINE: The second round of single elimination play is usually when upstarts get exposed — and I think this Russian side is in for a rude awakening after their monumental upset over Spain. La Roja was certainly frustrating in that match as their Tiki-Taka style too often seemed content with moving the ball horizontally while not taking the threat of what could happen if that match was decided by the somewhat random penalty kick shootout. This Bears team has worked hard — and effort can go a long way when playing defense. It also appears that FIFA has been pretty lax with enforcing their drug testing policies against this Russian team. But talent matters — and this is a team that was soundly defeated by Uruguay by a 3-0 score in their last Group Stage match. Their two wins in the Group Stage was against weak Saudi Arabia and Egypt sides. Home field advantage does mean something in the Knockout Stage — and this is why I passed on taking the superior Spanish side in the Round of 16. But playing at home can be a two-edged sword — and I would not be surprised if this Bears team is suffering the effects of the “Russian flu” after exceeding Putin’s wildest expectations regarding what this national team could accomplish while hosting the World Cup. Remember, this same team failed to advance out of the Group Stage in last year’s Confederations Cup. Almost their entire roster consists of players who compete in the lesser-tiered Russian professional league. While being a team that emphasizes defensive tactics, they have allowed goals in three of their four matches. And while the pressure is removed from this team, there no longer is a sense of urgency which can be dangerous for a group that suddenly finds themselves content and happy to be there. Croatia, on the other hand, arguably has as talented a roster as any team in this tournament. The Vatreni entered this event without much expectation — while they ranked 10th in the world by the Soccer Power Index put out by FiveThirtyEight’s metrics, they were ranked 20th in the world by FIFA and 17th in the world by ELO strength of schedule ranking system. The Las Vegas Southpoint down the street from the Hollywood Sports’ home office has them 30-1 to win this tournament. The reason for this skepticism was poor team cohesion that manifested itself in their most recent international tournaments. After failing to advance out of Group Stage play in the 2014 World Cup, Croatia lost in the Round of 16 in the 2016 Euro and then barely qualified for the World Cup while sacking their manager since 2015 late in that process. Off the field distractions continually followed this national team along the way. I mention all this because their victory over Denmark was a galvanizing moment for this team. To rally from a penalty kick deficit in that shootout to win offers this team a surge of movement moving forward. The past issues are now ancient history with the possibility of winning a World Cup firmly in place now. This team is loaded with talent particularly led by Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic to form what is probably the best quartet of midfielders in the world. And what is most important to me regarding this roster is that this moment is not too big for this group of individuals. Modric has been joined by Kovacic to form the midfield foundation of a Real Madrid that has won three straight Champions League — and Rakitic has been their primary rival in La Liga playing for Barcelona. The Vatreni have allowed only two goals in this tournament to win all four of their matches.

FINAL TAKE: The talent difference between these two sides is vast. Spain was too passive against the host nation — but I do not think Croatia will make the same mistake. The Spanish system is good in avoiding outright losses (in matches that end in draws), but a more aggressive approach should break the Russians down — just like Uruguay did. Russia will certainly park the proverbial bus in back. But constant pressure along with set pieces should eventually allow for Croatia to break through — and then the rout might be on. 25* World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Croatia (9800) minus the -0.5 Goal-Line versus Russia (9801). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (9803) and Sweden (9804). THE SITUATION: England (3-0-1) reached the Quarterfinals of the World Cup by defeating Colombia on Tuesday by a 4-3 score in the shootout after that match was deadlocked at 1-1 after 120 minutes of play. Sweden (3-0-1) advanced to the Quarterfinals of this tournament with their 1-0 win over Switzerland.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Sweden is built to grind out low-scoring matches under manager Janne Andersson — just like they did against the Swiss. The Blue and Yellow have allowed only two goals in their four matches in this tournament. They also lead all teams with 140 defensive clearances in this World Cup. But Sweden has also scored only six times in their four matches. That continues a disturbing trend in their preparations for this tournament where they only scored once in their last four friendlies. Furthermore, in their final playoff match in the qualification stage for the World Cup, the Blue and Yellow advanced by holding Italy scoreless in those 180 minutes of competition. Even in the 2016 Euro with their talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the pitch before retiring from international play, Sweden scored only one goal in their three Group Stage matches. England has allowed only four goals in their four matches. And while the Three Lions have scored nine goals in this tournament, eight of these goals were in their first two matches against two of the weakest teams in the World Cup in Panama and Tunisia.

FINAL TAKE: Sweden’s plan to win this match is to focus almost entirely on defense while taking their chances with counterattacks. They will be very happy with a scoreless match after the 90 minutes of regulation time. I am not sure they will be successful — they Blue and Yellows should dictate the pace and tempo of this match. 25* World Cup Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between England (9803) and Sweden (9804). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. THE SITUATION: Boston (59-29) has won eight of their last ten games with their 3-0 win in Washington on Wednesday. Kansas City (25-61) has lost six in a row with their 3-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Boston has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after an off-day — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 opening games to a new series. The Red Sox have also played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall. They give the ball to Sale who is 8-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in eighteen starts. The left-hander has been more effect on the road where he owns a 2.32 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP along with an opponent’s batting average of .163 in eleven starts. Boston has played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with Sale facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this slumping Royals team that is scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .261 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .584 during that span. Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Royals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an off-day. Additionally, Kansas City has played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a loss by just one run — and the Under is 24-11-2 in their last 37 games after scoring two runs or less in their last contest. The Royals have also played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They give the ball to Hammel who is 2-10 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in seven starts this season. The sabermetrics do indicate he should be seeing better results with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.94 and 5.03 — and his ERA also drops a full run to a 4.53 mark in his seven starts at home. The Under is 6-0-1 in KC’s last 7 home games with Hammel on the hill. He faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower.

FINAL TAKE: While Hammel does not appear very encouraging for the Under, the sabermetrics are encouraging. Sale should dominate the Royals (which is why the Red Sox are remarkable road favorites priced at almost -400). 25* MLB Pre-All Star Break American League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (973) and the Kansas City Royals (974) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Jason Hammel. Best of luck for us — Frank.