At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight games with their 27-24 win at Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. The Chiefs have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 16.9 PPG. This Kansas City team scores 24.1 PPG on their home field — and that is 1.8 PPG lower than their 25.9 PPG seasonal average. They also only generate 343.1 total YPG which is over 30 YPG lower than their 375.4 total YPG mark. The Chiefs have played a decisive 44 of their last 63 games Under the Total on their home field. They also have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, Kansas City has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the AFC Playoffs last Sunday with their 15-10 victory over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. The Titans eked out that game despite generating only 232 yards of offense. A +3 net turnover margin helped the Titans overcome their limited offensive effort in that game. Tennessee scores only 20.9 PPG while averaging just 314.0 total YPG — and those numbers drop to scoring just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. The Titans defense did do a fine job of stopping the Jaguars offense last week as they managed only 229 yards of offense. In fact, the lone Jacksonville touchdown came from a fumble recovery returned for a 67-yards touchdown. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Titans formula for success in this game will be running the football to burn time off the clock which keeps the Chiefs’ offense off the field — and that is a great formula for the Under. Lastly, in their last 11 games played in the month of January, Tennessee has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (51) and the New York Islanders (52). New York (20-17-3) has lost four straight games with their 6-4 loss in Philadelphia last night. The Islanders have then seen the Over go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Additionally, New York has played 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished above the number. This team returns home where they are scoring 4.0 Goals-Per-Game. The Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games on home ice. Some of the issue is goaltending for all these Overs. Their top goalie, Jaroslav Halak who will be between the pipes tonight, has a mediocre 3.0 Goals-Against-Average with a middling .913 save percentage on home ice this season. Moving forward, the Islanders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. New York has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow Metropolitan Division opponents. And the Islanders will be playing with revenge on their minds after their 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh back on December 7th. Not only has New York then played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss to their opponent but they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when their opponent scored at least four goals in that victory.

Pittsburgh (20-19-2) has lost three of their last four games with their 4-0 shutout loss to Carolina last night. The Penguins have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least three goals — and the Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a loss on home ice by at least three goals. The Over is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. Sidney Crosby has not scored a goal in his last eight games while managing just three assists over that span — but that means he is time bomb when it comes to the offensive fury that is likely to come. The Penguins will likely need to score goals tonight with backup Tristan Jarry serving as goaltender. Jarry has been a surprise with his 2.36 GAA along with a .922 save percentage  — but those numbers are likely not to be sustainable as teams get a book on him. This will be the second time he has faced this Islanders team. Pittsburgh’s defense has been faulty this season — they are allowing 3.56 Goals-Per-Game on the road this year. The Over is also 7-3-1 in the Pens’ last 11 games against teams with a losing record. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. 25* NHL Pre-All Star Game Metropolitan Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (51) and the New York Islanders (52). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (23) with the money-line versus the Calgary Flames (24). Los Angeles (24-11-5) has won two straight games after their 5-0 shutout win in Edmonton on Tuesday. The Kings have then won 9 of their last 11 games after a victory. Los Angeles has also won 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing two goals or less in their last game. The Kings got their Power Play going in that game as they scored three times with the man-advantage in the third period against the Oilers. Los Angeles has scored nine goals in their last two games — and they have then won 12 of their last 15 games after scoring at least three goals in two straight contests. This will be the sixth straight game where the Kings were facing a fellow Pacific Division rival — and not only have they won 19 of their last 25 road games after facing a divisional rival in their last game but they have also won 10 of their last 11 road games after playing at least two straight Pacific Division foes. Los Angeles has also won 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. Jonathan Quick should be between the pipes again tonight. The veteran has been quite good on the road this year where he has a 2.22 Goals-Against-Average along with a .927 save percentage. The Kings have won 11 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record on their home ice. And in their last 28 games against teams with a losing record, Los Angeles has won 20 of these games. The Kings will have revenge on their minds in this contest after losing to the Flames in the Staples Center by a 4-3 score back on October 11th. Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 games when looking to avenge a one-goal loss to their opponents.

Calgary (19-16-1) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 4-3 win over Chicago. But the Flames have then lost 5 of their last 7 games after a victory. They also have also lost 14 of their last 19 games on home ice after a game where they scored at least four goals. The Kings will be a tough opponent for the Flames considering that they have lost 5 of their last 7 games against an opponent that scored at least five goals in their last game. Calgary has also lost 4 of their last 5 games against opponents that did not allow more than two goals in their last game. The Flames are just 10-11-0 at home this season while allowing their opponents to score 3.1 Goals-Per-Game. Goalie Mike Smith has been outstanding when on the road where he enjoys a 1.96 GAA along with a .945 save percentage. But back at home, Smith has a 2.95 GAA along with a .903 save percentage which helps explain that losing record at home. Lastly, the Flames have lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NHL Pre-All Star Break Pacific Division Underdog of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (23) with the money-line versus the Calgary Flames (24). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Hofstra Pride (525) and the Northeastern Huskies (526). Hofstra (7-6) has lost three straight games after their 90-87 loss at William & Mary on Saturday as a 2-point underdog. The Pride have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now Hofstra stays on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Pride allow their home hosts to make 50.6% of their shots. That is one of the reasons why they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6 or less points.

Northeastern (8-5) looks to build off their 81-70 won at James Madison on Saturday. The Huskies forced only 8 turnovers in that game — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a game where they did not force more than 8 turnovers. Now Northeastern returns home where the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on their home court. The Huskies have also played a decisive 50 of their last 78 home games Over the Total when playing just their second game in a week. Additionally, Northeastern has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Lastly, in the last 13 meetings between these two teams at Northeastern, the game finished Over the Total 9 times. 25* CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Hofstra Pride (525) and the Northeastern Huskies (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama (11-1) saw their undefeated season spoiled in the Iron Bowl back on November 25th in a 26-14 upset loss at Auburn as a 5-point favorite. Look for the Crimson Tide to bounce-back with a very strong effort. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 42 of their last 63 road games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points, Alabama has covered the point spread 5 times. Nick Saban's team will be razor sharp as they look to bounce-back from that loss while also getting the opportunity to avenge their Championship Game loss to Clemson last season. Injuries at linebacker have slowed Alabama over the last month of the regular season -- which is one of the reasons why we went against them against Mississippi State and Auburn. But the Crimson Tide enters this game as healthy as they have been all season. Getting those linebackers back improves a stout defense that was already tops in the nation by allowing only 11.5 PPG. The Alabama offense also ranked 9th in the nation by scoring 39.1 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 4 games playing on field turf, the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread all 4 times.

Clemson (12-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on field turf. The Tigers are riding high having won six straight games since their loss at Syracuse after winning the ACC Championship Game by a 38-3 score over Miami (FL). But this Clemson team may be primed for a big letdown as they look to defend their National Championship now as the hunted team. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least six straight games. Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including failing to cover the point spread in three straight games in that situation. The Tigers have not allowed more than 14 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games and this includes failing to cover their last three games after not giving up more than 14 points in three straight. Lastly, Clemson has blowout their last three opponents by at least 24 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games by at least three touchdowns. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (808) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (807). Oklahoma City (20-16) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a controversial 97-95 loss to Milwaukee despite being a 6.5-point favorite. The Thunder lost after Giannis Antetokounmpo made a buzzer-beating basket — however, replays confirmed that the basket should have been disallowed with Antetokounmpo stepping out of bounds just before taking the winning shot. Expect Oklahoma City to come out blazing tonight to get that bad taste out of their mouths. The Thunder dealt with a similar situation early in the season back on October 22nd when the Andrew Wiggins nailed a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer for the Timberwolves to pull out a victory. The NBA later conceded that an illegal screen should have been called to nullify Wiggins’ basket. OKC responded to that disappointment with a 114-96 blowout win at home over Indiana as 13-point favorites in their next opportunity to take the court. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 45 of their last 70 games after a loss by 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when that loss by 3 points or less occurred on their home court. The team will be without both Andre Roberson and Paul George who are both dealing with injuries. But the team still has Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony with the latter helping the team more since accepting the role as primarily an outside shooter to better compliment Westbrook’s offensive game. Oklahoma City looks to avenge a 97-81 upset loss in Dallas back on November 25th as a 6-point underdog. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponents when playing in their gym in that last game. OKC has also covered the point spread in a divisive 71 of their last 119 games when playing with revenge for a double-digit loss — and this includes covering the point spread in 3 of their last 4 along with 20 of these last 31 situations.

Dallas (12-25) has pulled off three straight upset victories after they pulled that number again on Friday with their 128-120 upset win in New Orleans as a 6.5-point underdog. The Mavericks shot 55.4% from the field which was their best shooting effort in their last thirteen games. Dallas is getting great play from their rookie Dennis Smith Jr. — but this team looks primed for a letdown tonight. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. Even worse, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games when entering that game having covered the point spread in at least three straight games. The Mavericks have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of the last 33 games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after upset win on the road as an underdog. Dallas has also suffered letdowns and failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game against a fellow Southwest Division rival. This is the Mavs fifth game on the road over their last six games — and this is their sixth game in ten days. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing their sixth game in ten days. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (808) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Los Angeles (11-4) will be resting a few key players — including quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley — in this game with their slot in the NFC Playoffs as either the third or fourth seed secured. That means that the QB for this game will be Sean Mannion while the bell cow running back will be Malcolm Brown. While those names are not encouraging, the Rams defense should still be in good shape under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. In fact, Phillips will want to see many adjustments made from the 41-39 game that the Rams won in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 21st. Los Angeles enters this game coming off their 27-23 win at Tennessee last week as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rams have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning a game on the road where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Rams have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

San Francisco (5-10) has won four straight games with their 44-33 upset win over Jacksonville as a 4-point underdog. The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a fine start with the QB still undefeated as a starter after tearing up a very good Jaguars defense by completing 21 of 30 passes for 242 yards. While some bettors may expect another big day from the 49ers’ offense, I look for the San Fran defense to play much better this week as they look to build for next season. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals, the 49ers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Houston (4-11) has lost five straight games after their 34-6 loss to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. The Texans managed only 227 yards of offense behind quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Taylor Heinicke — and the team will be without their All-World wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. As it is, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. And in their last 10 games after failing to score at least 15 points, the Texans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. The team had to resign QB Josh Johnson off the streets this week with both their quarterbacks going through the concussion protocol this week. Yates has been cleared to start — but he completed just 19 of 47 passes for 211 yards and a QB Rating of 50.9 in his Houston has not scored a point in the first-half in their last two games — and they have then played 21 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. 

Indianapolis (3-12) has lost six straight games with their 23-16 loss in Baltimore last week in a game where they managed only 296 yards of offense. The Colts have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has also played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December. Now Indy returns home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a losing record on the road. With rumors that the franchise will not be retaining head coach Chuck Pagano, the team may mail in their effort this afternoon. As it is, the Colts have played 4 straight games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. Lastly, these two teams have played 8 straight games Under the Total when facing off in Indianapolis. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (810) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (809). Dallas (11-25) has produced two straight upset victories as they followed up their 98-93 upset win over Toronto as a 5.5-point underdog with their 98-94 upset win at Indiana as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Mavericks have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a road underdog. This will be Dallas’ sixth game in the last ten days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing at least their sixth game in ten days. Additionally, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four road games with the Total set in that range. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a Friday. 

New Orleans (18-16) has won three straight games with their 128-113 win over Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Pelicans are then 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. New Orleans stays at home where they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Pelicans have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 15 games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range, New Orleans has covered the point spread in 10 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 67-21-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month on the New Orleans Pelicans (810) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (809). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Utah State Aggies (253) and the New Mexico State Aggies (254). Utah State (6-6) enters this game coming off a 38-35 loss at Air Force as a 2.5-point favorite back on November 25th. Utah State has then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Utah State gained 521 yards in that losing effort — and they have then played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference, the Aggies have played all 4 games Over the Total.

New Mexico State (6-6) has won two straight games with their 22-17 win over South Alabama back on December 2nd as a 12-point favorite. These Aggies have then seen the Over go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a point spread loss. New Mexico State generated 491 yards in that victory — and the Over is then 26-12-1 in their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, New Mexico State has played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Together, these team trends produce our specific 89-34-2 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Utah State Aggies (253) and the New Mexico State Aggies (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Michigan State (9-3) opened this game as a small underdog — and with most of the money being bet on Sparty, they now find themselves as a small favorite in the 2-point range. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games without head coach Mark Dantonio being able to play the “disrespect” card. Michigan State has won two straight games after their 40-7 win at Rutgers as a 13.5-point favorite. But the Spartans have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Michigan State forced three turnovers in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. And while Sparty did not commit a turnover in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after committing no more than one turnover in their last contest. Michigan State does have a very good defense that has allowed 97 rushing yards combined in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Remember, this Spartans defense was exposed by Ohio State in a their 48-3 loss to the Buckeyes last month in a game where they allowed 524 yards of offense. The Michigan State offense scored only 23.6 PPG in their five games on the road this year — and they were outgained by -2.6 net PPG in their five games away from East Lansing. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

Washington State (9-3) should be very motivated to redeem themselves on this national stage from a pair of bad performances. For starters, the Cougars completely laid an egg last season in a 17-12 loss to Minnesota in this very same Holiday Bowl despite facing a severely depleted Golden Gophers team due to a slew of suspensions that the team handed out for disciplinary reasons that almost compelled them to cancel appearing at the game. We took the Gophers that night and I have had the Washington State opportunity for redemption in the back of my mind all year. The Cougars also look to get the bad taste out of their mouths from their 41-14 loss at Washington back on November 25th to close out their regular reason. Washington State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Quarterback Luke Falk did complete 37 of 55 passes for 369 yards in that game — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after they passed for at least 280 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last contest. Washington State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 16 games as the underdog, Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of these games. 25* CFB Fox Sports 1 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Philadelphia (12-2) enters this game coming off a 34-29 win in New York against the Giants on the heels of a 43-35 win in Los Angeles against the Rams. Those two games went Over the Total by 22 and 31 points respectively which may make it tempting for some bettors to expect another Over tonight. There are a host of empirical situational angles that help inform my decisions that do not end up being documented in my Reports but I wanted to highlight this one that identifies the contrarian play regarding the Under with the Eagles. After the first month of the season in games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, when one team has played their last two games Over the Total by at least two touchdowns, these games finished Under the Total in 34 of the last 44 situations (77%) where these conditions applied. The Eagles should see a much better effort from their defense after giving up 64 combined points over their last two games. Philly has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have also played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Eagles have played 37 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored in two straight contests. Philadelphia has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after two straight wins on the road. Returning home after playing a rigorous three straight games on the road should help this defense. On their home field, the Eagles are allowing only 15.2 PPG along with just 278.3 total YPG — and they have not given up more than 24 points at home all season. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as the favorite which includes playing their last two games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5 to 14 point range.

Oakland (6-8) enters this game coming off their 20-17 loss to Dallas back on December 17th. The Raiders have then played a decisive 39 of their last 57 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. This team struggles to score when away from home. Oakland is averaging just 17.0 PPG while generating a mere 292.5 total YPG when on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when on the road. And things are likely to get even tougher for Derek Carr and this offense with their Pro Bowl left tackle Donald Penn going on Injured Reserve with a foot injury. Penn will be missing his first game since the 2007 season after being a rock on the offensive line for this team. On the plus side, the Raiders are quietly playing much better on defensive side of the football. They are allowing only 334.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Lastly, Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when on the road in the last four weeks of the regular season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (703) and the Golden State Warriors (704). Over six months after last year’s NBA Finals, it is safe to give away a trade secret: I was pounding the Over in the NBA Finals because the betting public and the oddsmakers were behind on appreciating the style of play that the Cavaliers were deciding to engage against the Warriors. While I expect more of the same for this early regular season game in this marquee television matchup, too much will have changed by the time the 2018 NBA Finals rolls around to ensure near automatic Overs if there is a third sequel between these two teams. The oddsmakers set the number rather high for Game One of the NBA Finals last year at 224.5 — and the Under hit with Cleveland shooting just 34.9% from the field in a Golden State blowout. The Total dropped to 222 and we pounded the Over in what turned out to be the Warriors’ 132-113 victory. The number jumped to 226.5 for Game Three and we still took the Over and got there with Golden State’s 118-113 victory. For Game Four, the number climbed to 227 yet we kept the Over going and won easily with the Cavs’ 137-116 victory. That finally prompted the oddsmakers to traverse the 230 Total threshold with the number placed at 231. We still took the Over and were rewarded with a 129-120 score with the Warriors closing out that series. With this Total for a regular season game with a reconfigured Cavs’ roster facing a Golden State team without Steph Curry who is injured, lets still pound the Over. The Warriors side of this equation is rudimentary. Golden State (26-7) saw their eleven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 96-81 loss to Denver despite being an 8-point favorite. The Warriors shot just 38.6% from the field which was their worst shooting effort in their last twenty-two games. Expect Golden State to come out firing on all cylinders. Not only has Golden State played 6 straight games Over the Total after an upset loss but they have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 15 points as a home favorite. While the team certainly misses Curry, they still have plenty of offensive firepower with Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson along with Draymond Green and Shaun Livingston who are both listed as probable after dealing with nagging  injuries. The Warriors have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

Cleveland (24-9) should see LeBron James and company continue to deploy the same strategy they established last season to defeat the Warriors — especially with Golden State missing Curry and this Cavs’ team yet to incorporate Isaiah Thomas into their rotation (which might change everything). Cleveland’s basic plan is to use their depth to out-run and out-gun their opponents. They entered the NBA Finals last year scoring 120.7 points per 100 possessions which was the top mark in the last 40 years in the NBA Playoffs. They shoot tons of 3s — they entered last year’s Finals with 41.9% of their field goal attempts to be behind the arc. Granted, I am not even looking at what the numbers are this year for Cleveland because I don’t think it matters. This is how the Cavs wanted to play Golden State last year and they have not changed their roster in a way to change this formula. Defense was the biggest issue for this team last year — particularly in transition. Cleveland plans to sacrifice defense for easier transition points when the opponent does miss while they take and make more 3-pointers than their opponents. In other words, they try to out-do the Warriors’ style — and that is why we get huge numbers with the Over/Under that the Over still shatters. The Cavaliers enter this game having won six of their last seven games with their 115-112 win over Chicago back on December 21st. They shot 51.2% from the field in that win which was their fifth game in their last six contests where they made at least 50% of their shots. But Cleveland allowed the Bulls to make 55.3% of their shots after allowing the Bucks to make 52.4% of their shots in their previous game. Not coincidentally, the Cavs’ defense is missing one of their best defenders in Iman Shumpert who is dealing with a knee injury. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Cleveland has also paled 31 of their last 47 games Over the Total after a game where at least 220 combined points were scored. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 25 of their last 36 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 210 to 219 point range. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against Western Conference opponents. Lastly, the Cavaliers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (703) and the Golden State Warriors (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (711) and the Davidson Wildcats (712) in the Diamond’s Head Classic. This game first consolation match on the last day of this holiday tournament in Hawai’i will be played at 7:30 AM local time to accommodate the early afternoon tipoff on the east coast for the ESPNU national audience. Expect both teams to be a bit sluggish for this one. Akron (6-4) has lost two straight games after their 64-62 loss to Princeton on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Zips have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Akron has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. Furthermore, the Zips have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. And in their last 21 road games against non-conference foes, Akron has played 15 of these games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court, the Zips have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

Davidson (4-6) has lost three straight games with their 79-71 upset loss at Hawai’i who is the host team for this event on Saturday. The Wildcats shot just 38.1% from the field in that loss. While I sometimes expect the Regression Gods to swoop in an correct outlier efforts like that, in this case, I suspect those Gods will be busy elsewhere and not appearing in Hawai’i before 9:30 AM local time. As it is, Davidson has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Davidson has covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total when they have failed to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Their game with Hawai’i did finish Over the 141 point Total — but they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a game that finished above the number. Lastly, the Wildcats have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as a favorite on a neutral court by 6.5 to 12 points. 25* CBB Diamond’s Head Classic Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (711) and the Davidson Wildcats (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (227) in the Hawai’i Bowl. Fresno State (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 17-14 loss in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game at Boise State which was an immediate rematch from the game those two teams played the previous week in Fresno. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Fresno State did cover the 10-point spread as the underdog in that last game — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games after allowing at least 20 points in their last contest, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 9 of those games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the MWC, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests.

Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games with their 24-14 win over Navy back on November 24th as a 6.5-point favorite. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Trying to base Bowl game predictions based primarily on guessing the motivation of both teams has always been Fool’s Gold to me — but, that said, a trip to Hawai’i for this Houston team that did not meet their high expectations this season. The Cougars returned fifteen starters for first-year head coach Major Applewhite from last year’s team that finished 9-4 which included upset wins over Oklahoma and Louisville. But this team was upset four times this season to spoil their dreams of winning the American Athletic Conference and perhaps earn the Group of Five conference bowl bid in the New Year’s Six Bowl Games. Instead, a trip to Hawai’i to face another non-power conference opponent. The Cougars score only 20.2 PPG when playing away from home this season — and that is -8.2 PPG below their season average. Lastly, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on field turf. 25* CFB Hawai’i Bowl A-List Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (227). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Seattle (8-6) might have experienced their most humiliating loss in the Pete Carroll era last week in their 42-7 loss to the Rams. The season began with locker room angst between the defensive and offensive units and while those issues appeared to have been put aside during the season, injuries have decimated their roster. Now that they are out of the playoff hunt, this Seahawks team is playing for pride. But I do expect that to be enough motivation for this team as they look to make amends to each other for last week’s terrible effort. Seattle is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered  the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. The team is getting back a healthier Bobby Wagner on defense who did practice this week after trying to take the field last Sunday. His presence on defense will be a big help. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 29 games in the month of December, Seattle is 20-8-1 ATS.

Dallas (8-6) has won three games in a row with their 21-17 win in Oakland against the Raiders as a 3-point favorite. The Cowboys now get Ezekiel Elliott back after he completed his six-game suspension — and it looks like Dallas plans on giving him a ton of touches this afternoon. But the straw that stirs the drink is their left tackle Tyron Smith who is listed as questionable with the knee injury that has been slowing him down for the second-half of the regular season. Even if Elliott has been keeping in shape by running the beaches of the tropical locale from which he spent most of his suspension time, he might not have the endurance yet to be at 100% as he normally would be at midseason. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either in AT&T Stadium where they are just 3-4 this season while being outgained by -18.0 net YPG and being outscored by -1.1 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFC Underdog of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). New Orleans (10-4) will be looking to avenge a 20-17 loss in Atlanta back on December 7th in this game. The Saints rebounded from that loss last Sunday with their 31-19 win over the Jets as a big 17.5-point favorite. New Orleans have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Saints generated 412 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now New Orleans gets the Falcons back at home in the Superdome where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. In his last four games at home against Atlanta, Drew Brees has thrown for 1358 passing yards along with seven TD passes — so don’t be surprised if the veteran QB has a big day this afternoon. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC South opponents.

Atlanta (9-5) has won five of their last six games with their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay. The Falcons secondary showed vulnerabilities in that game by allowing the Buccaneers to pass for 289 yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Atlanta also limited Tampa Bay to only 84 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the biggest difference between this year’s Falcons and the one that made the run to the Super Bowl might very well be dropped passes. Led by Julio Jones’ seven drops, Atlanta leads the NFL in dropped passes. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL with only sixteen dropped passed combined amongst their wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Perhaps the Regression Gods return to this team was inevitable when considering that they led the NFL the prior year with 32 drops. Those drops are most likely cost the team first downs. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. 25* NFC South Game of the Year is on the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Green Bay (7-7) were eliminated from the playoffs last week after their 34-21 loss in Carolina. Now with Aaron Rodgers placed on Injured Reserve with this being a lost season, it would be easy to dismiss the Packers in this contest. But this proud Green Bay franchise has the opportunity to play spoiler against their rivals in the Vikings while avenging a 23-10 loss in Minnesota on October 15th. And this will be the final home game at Lambeau Field this year. The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the month of December. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. And while the Packers have played their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games after playing their last two on the road. QB Brent Hundley has played significantly better before giving way to Rodgers return from Injured Reserve last week. Green Bay was 2-1 over Hundley’s last three starts with two of those games being on the road. The lone loss was a narrow 31-28 loss in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. In his last three starts, Hundley completed 65 of 94 passes for an impressive 69.1% completion percentage while tossing 6 touchdown passes to just one interception. He passed for 594 yards in those three games with a solid and improving 6.32 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Huntley also added 103 rushing yards over those last three games on 15 carries. He has helped the Packers play their last four games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. Green Bay allowed 387 yards last week in Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games with their 34-7 win over Cincinnati last week. While this team is playing very well with Case Keenum ranked as the top statistical passer in the NFL since Week 10, asking them to cover the point spread of more than a touchdown on the road is simply too much to ask. The Vikings defense has been a bit more penetrable when on the road where they are allowing 21.7 PPG along with 312.6 total YPG as compared to their 17.3 PPG and 283.9 total YPG for the season. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road as the favorite. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on grass. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) and the Toledo Rockets (226) in the Dollar General Bowl. Appalachian State (8-4) enters this bowl game having won three straight games with their 63-14 win over UL-Lafayette back on December 2nd. The Mountaineers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Appalachian State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 20 points or less. This Mountaineers team once again has a stout defense as they ranked 33rd in the FBS by allowing 21.9 PPG — and they also ranked 39th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 358.9 total YPG. What helps the defense succeed is keeping them off the field by running the ball on offense. Appalachian State rushed for 357 yards again the Ragin’ Cajuns in that last game. Not only have they then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game but  they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Mountaineers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Appalachian State has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Toledo (11-2) has also won three straight games to close out the regular season with their 45-28 win over Arkon in the Mid-American Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Rockets were 20.5-point favorites in that game — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Toledo allowed 283 passing yards in that victory — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Rockets have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Toledo exploded for 561 yards of offense against the Zips in that game — but they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Under is 23-9-1 in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, Toledo has played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) and the Toledo Rockets (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (807) plus the points versus the Miami Heat (808). Dallas (9-23) is looking to build off their 110-93 win over Detroit on Wednesday as a 1-point favorite. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak in that game — and, not coincidentally, it was the first game back for their rookie sensation Dennis Smith who had missed the previous six games with a left hip strain. Smith scored 15 points while adding 5 assists and 5 rebounds. Look for the Mavericks to build off this momentum as they had covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Dallas has covered then point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And in their last 9 games when playing with one day of rest, the Mavs are 6-2-1 ATS. This Dallas team has a disappointing overall record — but they play hard every night for head coach Rick Carlisle. This team is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games agains teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games on the road, the Mavericks are 5-1-1 ATS.

Miami (16-15) has won five of their last seven gams with their 90-89 upset win at Boston on Wednesday as a 9-point favorite. Head coach Erik Spoelstra deployed a surprise zone defense in the 3rd quarter of that game that stifled this Celtics team — and the Heat held Boston to just a 37.5% shooting mark which was their best defensive effort in their last twelve games. Certainly Carlisle has reminded his team as to what he wants them to do if Miami plays some zone again tonight. Spoelstra felt compelled to reach into the coaching Bag of Tricks because he is dealing with a depleted roster. Big men Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson are both out with injuries and point guard Goran Tragic and Justice Winslow are both questionable with an elbow and knee themselves. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover then point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This team returns home to begin a four-game home stand after being on the road in seventeen of their last twenty-four games — so this team may not be able to stop themselves from letting out an exhale and letting up a bit in this game. As it is, they are just 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games on their home court — and this includes a 1-6-2 ATS mark against teams with a losing record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 64-16-5 ATS combined angle for this situation. Dallas opened as the underdog which compelled me to label this game as our NBA Underdog of the Month but I am now seeing that the Mavs are the betting favorite in some spots now. Who knows where the line will be by tip off with these Miami injuries to Winslow and Dragic leaving them “questionable” as of now. Even if Dallas is laying points against a Heat team that will be playing Dragic and Winslow (the worst case scenario), this is a 25* play on a hard-working Mavs team with Smith back against a Miami team that I am expecting to be flat back at home). 25* NBA Underdog of the Month on the Dallas Mavericks (807) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Miami Heat (808). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (836) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (835). Oakland (7-5) will be looking to avenge a 95-89 loss at Eastern Michigan back on December 6th. The Grizzlies have won two of their last three games since that loss with their lone setback being a gritty 13-point loss to a might Michigan State team on a neutral court. Oakland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when looking to avenge a loss to their opponents. The Grizzlies come off a 97-86 loss to Towson State back on December 20th as a 4.5-point favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Oakland is also 42-15-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 15 games after scoring at least 90 points, the Grizzlies are 10-4-1 ATS. Oakland gets this rematch at home where they are a perfect 5-0 with season while outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG. This up-tempo Grizzlies team scores 89.6 PPG on 51.2% shooting. Oakland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home.

Eastern Michigan (8-2) shot a sizzling 56.5% from the field to pull that upset as a +1.5-point underdog against the Grizzlies. They will be hard pressed to come close to replicating that number in Oakland where the Grizz hold their opponents to just 41.2% from the field. The Eagles are 2-2 on the road this season where they are shooting just 44.7% from the field. Perhaps the bigger concern for Eastern Michigan this time around is that they are allowing the home team to make 48.8% of their shots. The Eagles enter this game having won three straight games after their 85-80 win at Long Beach State last Saturday. Eastern Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after winning at least three straight games. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court, Eastern Michigan has failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 25* CBB Revenge Game of the Month on the Oakland Grizzlies (836) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (835). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (220) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (219) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wyoming (7-5) is led by a quarterback who will be drafted high in next April’s NFL Draft in junior Jake Allen. But Allen lost almost all his skill players from the previous season and led an offense that mostly sputtered this season as they scored only 22.3 PPG. Allen’s status for this game was questionable with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the last two games of the regular season — but he will take the field to start in this showcase opportunity for himself before he likely declares himself eligible for the draft. I do think the offense should be improved with the extra weeks of bowl practice. But while the offense behind Allen has been a challenge this season, that dynamic obscured the fact that the Cowboys defense has been quite good this season. Eight starters returned for first-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton who oversaw a unit that ranked 12th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 17.8 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by limiting opponents to only 332.8 total YPG. Wyoming should also have the Special Teams edge in this game against the Chippewas. The Cowboys will be looking to bounce-back after losing their last two games of the season without Allen. They take the field again for the first time since their 20-17 loss at San Jose State as an 18-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with at least two weeks to prepare under head coach Craig Bohl. Wyoming has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. In their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Wyoming has covered the point spread 4 times. Additionally, the Cowboys will enjoy both a geographical edge as well as an environment edge as they are already quite familiar with playing in the high altitude conditions that will be the case in Boise for this Bowl game.

Central Michigan (8-4) closed out the regular season with five straight victories with their 31-24 upset victory over Northern Illinois as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chippewas pulled off five upsets this season while winning all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. The team is led on offense by quarterback Shane Morris who was a graduate transfer from Michigan. Some pundits have queried about how good the Wolverines would have been if Morris would have stayed in Ann Arbor after he threw 26 touchdown passes this season. Those observers fail to realize that the southpaw was low on Jim Harbaugh’s depth chart for a reason. Putting up solid numbers against MAC competition when given the opportunity to pass the ball at least 35 times is not uncommon. But Morris’ 55% completion rate this season as well as his 13 interceptions (a big no-no for Harbaugh) that he put up this season are big reasons for concern when facing a quality defense. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games outside the MAC. And while the Chippewas have played five straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least five straight games that finished Over the Total. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Wyoming Cowboys (220) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (215) minus the points versus the Florida International Golden Panthers (216). Temple (6-6) closed out their season winning three of their last four games with their 43-22 win at Tulsa as a 4.5-point favorite. The Owls should build off their momentum closing out the regular season as they have covered the pint spread in 7 of their last 9 games are a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread victory. The offense has raised its level of play over their last five games when first-year head coach Geoff Collins inserted QB Frankie Nutile into the starting lineup. The junior completed 20 of 28 passes for 262 yards and three touchdown passes. Futile is completing 61% of his passes while possessing an 11 to 7 touchdown-to-interception ration while leading his team to score 31.8 PPG in his five starts. In their last three wins, the Owls have combined to score 112 combined points. Temple generated 451 yards of offense against Tulsa — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This should be a motivated group of players with 20 seniors and 24 juniors on the opening roster who will be looking to deliver a victory in a bowl game after experiencing upset losses in the last two seasons in their bowl game. Temple has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when playing on field turf which the field here in St. Petersburg.

Florida International (8-4) pulled off their second straight upset victory this season with their 63-45 upset win over UMass as a 2.5-point underdog back on December 2nd. That win came on the heels of their 41-17 upset win over Western Kentucky the previous Saturday as a small 2.5-point underdog in that game. First-year head coach Butch Davis led his team to an incredible six upset victories this season — but his group may suffer a rude awakening in this game. FIU ranked last in the country for FBS teams in terms of strength of schedule according to the Sagarin ratings — and they will be facing a Temple team battled tested from playing in the American Athletic Conference that rated as the top Group of Five non-power conference. It is telling that Florida International has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games outside Conference USA play. I see two particular areas where mismatches are likely. First, the Golden Panthers’ small offensive line risks being overpowered by the big defensive line of the Owls. Secondly, FIU allowed 37.4 PPG along with 467.6 total YPG in their five games away from home — and they scored only 22.4 PPG while getting outgained by -144.4 net YPG in those five road games. The Golden Panthers do have a geographical advantage with this game being played in St. Petersburg — but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games played in the month of December, FIU is 0-3-1 ATS. 25* CFB Temple-FIU Gasparilla Bowl Special Feature with the Temple Owls (215) minus the points versus the Florida International Golden Panthers (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Chicago (10-20) has been on fire since getting power forward Nikolo Mirotic back on the court after missing the start of the season due to injuries sustained when he got into a fight with teammate Bobby Portis. The Bulls are undefeated since Mirotic returned to the lineup — and they have won seven straight games after their 112-94 win over Orlando last night as a 5.5-point favorite. Chicago is scoring 111.0 PPG over their last five games while making 47.7% of their shots as they clearly are buoyed with Mirotic’s presence down low. For the season, the Bulls are scoring 99.3 PPG on a 43.5% shooting percentage so Mirotic’s impact has been impressive. The Magic shot just 39.3% from the field against Chicago which was the Bulls’ best defensive effort in their last eighteen games — so they are likely to come back to Earth tonight when facing LeBron James and company at least on the defensive end of the court. As it is, Chicago has palyed 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Bulls have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing without rest and none of their players logged in more than 29 minutes last night in their easy victory. Chicago goes on the road for this contest where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. The Bulls have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court.

Cleveland (23-9) looks to bounce-back from their 119-116 upset loss in Milwaukee as a that snapped a five-game winning streak. The Cavaliers have then played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Cleveland has also played 29 of their last 40 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss decided by 6 points or less. The Cavaliers have shot at leas 50% from the field in four of their last five games but they have also failed to cover the point spread in four of those last five games. Cleveland has then played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least three of their last four games. The Over is also 15-5-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Over those last five games, the Cavs are scoring 115.0 PPG on 51.2% shooting — but they have allowed those five opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field while scoring 108.8 PPG themselves. Moving forward, Cleveland has played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall. And in their last 36 games as a double-digit favorite, the Cavaliers have played 24 of these games Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Central Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (503) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Atlanta (8-5) enters this game after their triumphant 20-17 win over New Orleans two Thursdays ago. If you think this game looks eerily similar to last Monday night’s New England at Miami game, then you are not alone. The Falcons easily took care of the Buccaneers in the first meeting between these two teams back on November 26th in a 34-20 score in Atlanta. And with the rematch with the Saints in the Big Easy on deck this weekend, this Falcons team may be caught looking ahead. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a home win against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has won four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Falcons held New Orleans to just 50 rushing yards last night — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Atlanta did suffer a -2 net turnover margin to the Saints in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 32 games as the favorite.

Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week. The Buccaneers have not only failed to cover in those three games but they have only paid off bettors in two of their last seven contests. But Tampa Bay has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Buccaneers team entered the season with high expectations. While this year has been ruined, they can still play the role of spoiler against a divisional rival which should motivate them to play well without the burden of high expectations. Tampa Bay did allow 434 yards to the Lions in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers did hold Detroit to just 53 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 75 rushing yards in their last  game. Expect Tampa Bay to be inspired by the Miami Dolphins who pulled the upset last Monday night at home as the underdog against another divisional rival that played in last February’s Super Bowl. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Dallas (7-6) looks to build off their 30-10 win in New York against the Giants last week. The Cowboys have found their offense again as they dialed up 454 yards of offense behind a rushing attack that generated 122 yards of offense. Getting Tyron Smith healthy again at left tackle has made a big difference for this team as they have rushed the ball 73 times over their last two games for 304 rushing yards. Rushing the football tonight will keep the clock moving and help our Under tonight. As it is, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after they gained at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys stay on the road where they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total. Additionally, Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 9 games in the month of December, Dallas has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

Oakland (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raiders have then played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Oakland is playing better on defense. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 19.0 PPG along with just 297.3 total YPG. Now the Raiders return home where they have played 4 of their last games Under the Total. Oakland has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, the Raiders have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Pittsburgh (11-2) has had this date circled since the league office put out the schedule as they are looking to avenge last year’s 36-17 loss in New England in the AFC Championship Game. But the timing for their opportunity for revenge could not be worse. For starters, the Steelers have gutted through two very difficult games against AFC North rivals. After the their very physical game against the Bengals two weeks ago, Pittsburgh rallied from an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to eke out a 39-38 victory over Baltimore. Recovering from this stretch is difficult enough. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last fifteen games after facing their arch rival in the Ravens, Pittsburgh has lost eight of these games straight-up. The mental and physical toll of those two games will be difficult to sustain now — especially with all the pressure this team feels to step up for this game given the words of head coach Mike Tomlin over the last few weeks. A big emotional letdown may happen for this team. While they have won eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning eight of their last ten games. Furthermore, this Steelers’ defense is far from at full strength. The season-ending injury to Ryan Shazier takes away their best defender of short and intermediate routes that this Patriots team absolutely thrives in with tight end Rob Gronkowski leading the way. In the seven quarters this team has played since losing Shazier in the Bengals game, Pittsburgh has allowed 48 points and 654 yards. Even worse, the Steelers have allowed their opponent to score a touchdown in all six of their Red Zone appearances since that Shazier injury — as opposed to not allowing a TD in thirteen of their previous twenty-five Red Zone defensive situations. Pittsburgh is also missing cornerback Joe Haden with his broken fibula who was their best cover man in their secondary. Over their last three games without Haden, the Steelers defense has allowed 28.7 PPG along with 357.7 total YPG. Haden is listed as questionable for this game but is not likely to be close to 100% even if takes the field which will leave the Pittsburgh pass defense still vulnerable after Joe Flacco torched them for 269 yards and a 7.69 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Pittsburgh has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.09 and 6.77 Yards-Per-Play without Haden and Shazier (for all but one quarter) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing each of their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. On offense, Big Ben Roethlisberger did complete 44 of 66 passes for 506 yards against the Ravens last week — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have not covered the point spread in their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games.

New England (10-3) should be angry and focused after they were flat on Monday in their 27-20 loss in Miami despite being a 10.5-point favorite. Casinos have been built on bettors leaving this Patriots team for dead in the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era. New England is 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread setback. And I am not worried about the short week when considering that the Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. Brady will be very happy to see Gronkowski return to the field after he served his suspension last week. New England managed only 248 yards against the Dolphins while only rushing the ball to 10 times for a measly 25 yards. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after failing to generate at least 350 yards in their last game. Brady should bounce-back as he thrives when facing a Mike Tomlin defense. When facing a team with Tomlin as either head coach or defensive coordinator, Brady has thrown 26 touchdown passes and only one interception — and that TD to interception ratio is a perfect 22-0 with Tomlin the head coach with the Steelers. Brady has won ten of his twelve career starts against Pittsburgh. Take last year’s AFC Championship Game where Brady faced a Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defense in 39 of his 43 drop-backs. If the defense cannot create immediate pressure on Brady, he just picks the defense apart by finding voids in the zone defense. He completed 32 of 42 passes last year against the Steelers playing zone in 91% of his drop back passes. Like I said, Pittsburgh will really miss Joe Haden. On defense, this team is substantially better than they were in the first month of the season. Over their last three games, the Patriots are allowing only 15.7 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG even after last week’s loss to the Dolphins where they allowed 362 yards (helped by having the football for over 36 minutes). New England’s seasonal defensive numbers or the analytics at sites like Football Outsiders simply fail to capture the quality of this unit at this point of the season (because they are unwilling and/or unable to the need for subjective analysis to their “objective” formulas that originate from subjective weighting systems). Lastly, the Patriots are very reliable in situations like this. New England has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as the favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Pats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at least at 49.5. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The end. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) plus (or minus) the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Kansas City (7-6) was once the toast of the league early in the season when they rattled off five straight victories — and we were bearish on them then. But now most bettors have jumped off the ole bandwagon as they have lost six of their last eight games while also only covering the point spread twice over those last eight contests. But that is an overreaction as well — and this Chiefs team should be very feisty in this rare situation where they are a home underdog. To make things even saltier for this Kansas City team, they are underdogs at home to a Chargers team that they have defeated seven straight times. I like what I saw with this Kansas City team last week where they defeated the Raiders by a 26-15 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage helped the Chiefs get back to their winning ways — perhaps the entire team responded to the message head coach Andy Reid sent when he suspended starting cornerback Marcus Peters for losing control the previous week when he tossed an official’s penalty flag into the crowd. Rookie Kareem Hunt broke out of his slump by rushing the ball 25 times for 116 yards while adding another 22 yards in the air. The Chiefs rushed for 165 yards against the Raiders which helped them control the clock for 36:40 minutes — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. KC held Oakland to just 70 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chiefs ave covered the point spread in 5 straight games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 9 games against AFC West opponents, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 8 times.

25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (303) and the Detroit Lions (304). Detroit (7-6) enters this game coming off their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay last week in a pick ‘em game. QB Matthew Stafford was outstanding in that contest as he completed 36 of 44 passes for 381 yards — but the Lions have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But despite that nice offensive effort, Detroit is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games. One of the concerns for the Lions is their inability to run the football as they rank last in the league by averaging only 76.3 rushing YPG. Over their last four games, Detroit has not rushed for more than 78 yards — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in four straight games. On the other side of the football, the Lions allowed 267 passing yards to the Bucs in that victory — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

Chicago (4-9) enters this game coming off their 33-7 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. The Bears have then played 17 of their last 26 ames Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as an underdog. The Bears controlled the clock for this game as they had the football for 38:09 of this game which helped them churn out 482 yards of offense. This Time of Possession advantage helped them keep the Bengals off the field — and Cincy had just 234 yards of offense in that contest. Chicago won the first down battle in that contest as well by a 29-14 margin — and they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they dominated Time of Possession by holding the ball for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Additionally, the Bears have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after outgaining their opponents by at least +150 net yards. With the Chicago offense stabilizing, their strong defense can flex their muscles. For the season, the Bears rank 11th in the NFL by allowing only 325.5 total YPG. On the road, Chicago is giving up 15.8 PPG along with 317.2 total YPG. The Bears will need their defense to shine in this one when considering that they score only 16.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 314.8 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Lastly, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — including five of their last seven games Under the Total when an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (303) and the Detroit Lions (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (811) and the Boston Celtics (812). Boston (24-6) has won seven of their last nine games with their 124-118 win over Denver on Wednesday. The Celtics have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Over is also 9-2-1 in their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. Now this team stays at home where they are averaging 106.5 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Boston has also played 19 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And the Over is 25-10-1 in the Celtics’ last 36 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The team is likely to get Al Horford back on the court as he is listed as probable with his knee injury. That helps them on offense — and the fact that Marcus Morris will still be out with his knee issue takes away one of their better post defenders. Boston has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the number set in the 190 to 199.5 point range. And in their last 5 games against Western Conference opponents, the game has finished Over the Total 4 times.

Utah (13-15) has lost four straight games with their 103-100 loss in Chicago to the Bulls as a 5.5-point favorite. The Jazz have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. This team looks to have Joe Johnson back as he is listed as probable despite his wrist injury to give the Jazz another offensive weapon. Now they stay on the road out east — and they are allowing home teams to shoot 48.4% from the field. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total. The Jazz have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Utah has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against Eastern Conference opponents. And in the last 33 meetings between these two teams, the Over is 21-10-3. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Jazz (811) and the Boston Celtics (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (803) plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (804). Miami (13-14) looks to bounce-back from their 102-95 loss to Portland on Wednesday as a 2.5-point favorite. The Heat have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Now this team goes on the road where they have a winning 8-7 record based on tough defense as they are holding their opponents to just a 43.8% shooting percentage. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 45 road games as the underdog, the Heat have covered the point spread in 29 of these contests. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 encounters with their Southeast Divisional rivals in this Hornets team.

25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Miami Heat plus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Indianapolis Colts (302). Denver (4-9) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 23-0 shutout win over the Jets as a 1-point home underdog. The Broncos held the Jets to just 100 yards of offense. Denver has been a disaster on offense as they have not been able to develop a quarterback between Trevor Siemian, Payton Lynch and Brock Osweiler — but the Broncos defense remains outstanding. Despite little help on offense in staying off the field, the Denver defense remains number one in the league by holding their opponents to just 280.5 total YPG — and they rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense (191.1 passing YPG) and 4th in the league in rushing defense (89.5 rushing YPG). The Broncos held the Jets to just 41 passing yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Denver has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Denver has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 28 games as the favorite, the Broncos have played 19 of these games Under the Total.

Indianapolis (3-10) looks to bounce-back from their 13-7 loss in the blizzard in Buffalo on Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. The Colts have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. QB Jacoby Brissett managed to complete only 11 of 22 passes for 69 yards in that game — and Indianapolis have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. While the snowy conditions made it difficult for both offenses in that game, the fact remains that this Indy offenses lack weapons at the skill positions as well as a decent offensive line to protect a backup albeit promising quarterback in Brissett. The Colts are 30th in the NFL by scoring 16.3 PPG — and they are 31st in the league by averaging just 290.7 total YPG. Now Indianapolis returns home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played all 5 games Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Indianapolis Colts (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (708) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (707). Boston (23-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 108-85 upset loss in Chicago on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. The Celtics shot only 39.8% from the field which was their first shooting effort in their last thirteen games — and the 48.1% shooting mark for the lowly Bulls was their worst defensive performance in their last seven contests. Look for a strong effort from Boston tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The team will be without Al Horford who is being given the night off for regular season rest which will leave the thin up front with Marcus Morris already out win an injury. But they are catching this Nuggets team limited on their front line as well with both Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap injured and out. The Celtics are blessed with depth still and they can use Aron Bynes along with their triumvirate of first-year big men in Guerschon Yabusege, Semo Ojeleye and Danied Theis when head coach Brad Stevens wants to deploy a bigger lineup. Boston does look to have Kyrie Irving on the court as he is listed as probable after dealing with a quad. The Celtics return home where they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, Boston has covered the point spread in 9 of these contests.

Denver (15-12) enters this game coming off their 103-84 upset win in Detroit last night as a 7-point underdog. The Nuggets overcame their missing big men by making 50.6% of their shots which was tied for their best shooting mark in their last twelve games. Even more important for Denver in this victory was that the Pistons made just 35.4% of their shots which represented the Nuggets best defensive effort of the season. This all makes this team ripe for a big letdown tonight. As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. Denver stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when playing in Boston. Lastly, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Boston Celtics (708) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (707). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505). New York (13-13) has won two of their last three games with their 111-107 win over Atlanta on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. The Knicks have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Knicks are without Tim Hardaway, Jr. who is out indefinitely with a leg injury — but they are likely to get Enes Kanter back on the court as he is listed as probable with a hip injury. New York stays at home for this one where they are 12-5 overall while shooting a crisp 48.2% from the field while holding their opponents to only a 42.5% shooting mark. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Knicks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite laying no more than 6 points. And in their last 7 games against Western Conference opponents, New York has covered the point spread 6 times.

Los Angeles (10-15) has won two straight games as the underdog with their 110-99 upset win in Charlotte as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Lakers are then just 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in thirteen of their last twenty-one games after a double-digit victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three games. The Lakers have now played four straight games that finished Under the Total — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing at least four straight games Under the Total. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 4-8 with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% won their home court. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Game of the Month with the New York Knicks (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (133) and the Miami Dolphins (134). New England (10-2) enters this game coming off their 23-3 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The Patriots have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England generated 435 yards of offense in that contest with the Bills — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski in this game which takes away Tom Brady’s security blanket. Brady’s numbers are markedly better with Gronkowski on the field. In his career, Brady completes 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 8.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt with a 5.29:1 touchdown to interception ration and a QB Rating of 79. But in games without Gronkowski, Brady sees those numbers drop to a 62% completion percentage with a 7.0 YPA mark and a 2.95:1 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 63. Furthermore, South Beach has not been Brady’s favorite place to play as the Patriots are scoring just 23.8 PPG in his fifteen starts in Miami while Brady has gotten sacked 32 times while throwing 13 interceptions. New England has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, New England has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Miami (5-7) enters this game coming off their 35-9 upset win over Denver last week as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins have then played 32 of their last 49 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Miami plays much better defense on their home field where they are limiting their opponents to just 20.8 PPG along with only 286.0 total YPG. The Dolphins have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-26 combined angle for this situation. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (133) and the Miami Dolphins (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 44-20 win over Detroit last Sunday. This Ravens team is playing with confidence behind an outstanding defense and an improving offense that is finding themselves after being ravaged with injuries to start the season. Joe Flacco completed 23 of 36 passes against the Lions for 269 yards with two TD passes to lead the offense for 370 total yards. Baltimore is then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens defense has allowed only 400 yards only once this season — and that was their game in London with those unique travel situations. Baltimore will be playing their revenge on their minds after losing by a 26-9 score at home to the Steelers back on October 1st. Flacco has won two of his last three starts in Pittsburgh while leading his team to score 80 combined points in that contest. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC North opponents. The Ravens are also 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS.

Pittsburgh (10-2) comes off a physically and emotionally draining game with the Bengals last week which they survived by a 23-20 score in Cincinnati against the Bengals. And this team has a showdown with the Patriots on deck next Sunday which will likely determine the top seed in the AFC Playoffs. In fact, even if the Steelers lose this game, a win over New England next week likely gives them the tie-breaker over the Patriots. While that is not to say that Pittsburgh does not want to beat their arch rivals in this Baltimore team again — but it might impact how head coach Mike Tomlin views things if some players get hurt in this game. As it is, the Steelers are just 2-5-1 ATS when playing on a short week on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are without some important players in this game as well. Star linebacker Ryan Shazier will not play for the rest of the season after he was carted off the field for his hit that injured his spine. The team is already without cornerback Joe Haden who has been dealing with a fibula injury for weeks — and his absence has exposed the Pittsburgh secondary to big plays that even Andy Dalton has been able to expose. Wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster is also out for tonight as he is serving his one-game suspension for his hit and taunt on Vontaze Burfict in that game on Monday. The absence of Smith-Schuster takes away a big-play option for Big Ben Roethlisberger while his defense is giving up more and more of these plays. The Steelers have allowed nine passing plays of more than 40 yards which is 6th worst in the league this season. They have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.14 and 6.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Roethlisberger does tend to struggle against the Ravens. In his last eleven starts, he has just a 4-7 record while tossing just 13 touchdowns and throwing just as many interceptions. And while Pittsburgh has won seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games along with failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning at least five straight games. With this being a very challenging sandwich situation for a team that has seemed to not meet their high expectations (despite their great record), expect this to be another close game for the Steelers. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). There will be plenty of emotion in the Meadowlands this afternoon as the proverbial Prodigal Son in Eli Manning returns to the starting lineup in a stadium that will be full of Eli jerseys in the wake of the firing of Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo along with their general manager Jerry Reese. New York (2-10) has played two straight games on the road — as well as three of their last four contests. That long game at home was an upset win over the Chiefs. I look for this team to play inspired football under this situation — especially for interim head coach Steve Spagnola who represents Big Blue as the defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl Championship with Manning under center. This also is an opportunity for this team to play spoiler against the Cowboys while avenging a 19-3 loss in Dallas back on September 10th. The Giants look to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Oakland last week as a 10-point underdog. New York rushed for only 65 yards in that game after managing just 84 rushing yards in Washington the week before. But the Giants are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 tams after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Additionally, New York scored only 7 points in the first half of their game with the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the underdog.

Dallas (6-6) snapped their three-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 38-14 upset win over Washington as a 1.5-point underdog. We had the Cowboys in that game so we were very happy with those results. However, without Ezekiel Elliott and his dynamic skills as both a runner but also a pass catcher and a blocker out of the backfield, this is a limited football team that depends on their ability to win the Time of Possession battle to keep their defense off the field. The Cowboys managed just 275 yards — and they were outgained by the Skins. QB Dak Prescott completed only 11 of 22 passes for 102 yards in that contest — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. Dallas also covered the point spread for the first time in four games in that contest — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Cowboys are a rough 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games played on field turf. Dallas is also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of December — and a loss in this one would probably ruin their playoff chances. That is an ominous sign when considering that the visiting team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. And in their last 6 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Giants, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFL NFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (74) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (73). Los Angeles (19-8-3) has rattled off seven straight wins after their 4-3 win in overtime over Ottawa on Thursday. The Kings have obviously won 6 straight games after a victory — and they while they have scored at least three goals in their last six games, they have then won 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least three goals in two straight contests. Los Angeles entered the season at a crossroads after missing the playoffs in the last two seasons after winning the Stanley Cup in the 2014-15 campaign. The optimists contended that some bad luck with injuries and the bounce of the puck accounted for this lapse with the deeper analytics claiming their puck possession and shot percentages should be reaping better results. On the other hand, with this team locked-in to some big salaries, the pessimists suggested that it might be time to blow this team up. The optimists are winning the debate as the Kings have the most points in the Western Conference. A healthy Jonathan Quick makes a big difference — he sports a 2.20 Goals-Against-Average along with a .929 save percentage this season. He is helping this team lead the NHL by allowing only 2.20 Goals-Per-Game — and this teams also leads the league with their Penalty Play Kill Unit success rate of 89%. LA is 9-5-2 at home this season — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games on home ice. The Kings have also won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

Carolina (11-10-3) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 5-4 loss in San Jose on Thursday. The Hurricanes have then lost 15 of their last 19 road games after dropping three of their last four games. The strength of this team was supposed to be their blue-line this season — but this team is allowing 3.1 Goals-Per-Game this season. Over their last five contests, Carolina is surrendering 3.6 Goals-Per-Game which is just way too much given their limited scoring options in their forward lines. In those last five games, the Hurricanes are scoring just 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. Special teams are hurting this team. They are 28th in the league with a Power Play that converts only 15.7% of the time — and their Power Play Kill Unit is 29th in the league with a low 75% success rate. In their last two games, Carolina is 0 for 5 on their Power Play while allowing two goals on the five Power Plays they have faced. This is now their third game on their west coast road trip — and they have lost a decisive 37 of their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Hurricanes have also lost 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 5.5. Additionally, Carolina has lost 5 of their last 6 games played in LA against the Kings. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have lost 8 of their last 10 games against fellow Western Conference opponents. And in the last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Carolina has lost 4 of these games. 25* NHL Game of the Month with the money-line on the Los Angeles Kings (74) versus the Carolina Hurricanes (73). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (808)plus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (807). Florida (5-3) has lost three straight games after suffering an upset loss to Loyola-Illinois as a big 17-point favorite by 65-59 score back on Wednesday. The Gators were riding high with a win over Gonzaga that they followed up with a gritty but narrow loss to Duke on a neutral court two weeks ago. But then Florida got blown out by 17 points on their home court to Florida State before their loss to the Ramblers. The problems for the Gators are pretty simple to dissect: they have not been able to hit the side of the barn in their last two games while not passing the ball enough to find good shots. Florida made only 2 of their 19 shots from behind the arc against Loyola-Illinois. Over their last three games, they are shooting just 36.6% from the field while making only 8 of their 44 shots from behind the arc for an 18.2% shooting mark. They also have a terrible 14 assists in those three games while committing 25 turnovers which played a role in them not covering the point spread in three straight games. Additionally, Loyola-Illinois made 52% of their shots which is the second best effort any team has shot against the Gators this season. Yes, I am expecting a big bounce back from this team that returned four key pieces from the group that made a run to the Elite Eight last year while adding two solid transfers from Power Five Conference schools. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after getting upset in two straight games as the favorite. And while they managed only 7 assists against the Ramblers, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to register at least 9 assists in their last game. Florida is leading all SEC teams with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.6. In fact, the Gators only turn the ball in 13.4% of their possessions (4th in the nation) which should frustrate this Bearcats team that forces turnovers in 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions which is 32nd in the nation. Florida should find their stroke again — they make 48.6% of their shots when away from home and they are nailing a healthy 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in Newark, New Jersey — and the Gators have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3 points or less. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in a decisive 71 of their last 119 situations when the game is listed in the +/- 3-point range including twelve of the last nineteen.

Cincinnati (7-1) lost their first game of the season last Saturday in an 89-76 loss at Xavier. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games when playing just their second game in eight days. Cincinnati committed only 8 turnovers in that game to the Musketeers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after committing no more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Interestingly, the Bearcats missed 6 of their 16 shots from the charity stripe in that game — and that is one less free throw then what Florida has seen their last three opponents miss combined! Duke, Florida State and Loyola-Illinois made 46 of their 53 free throws for a scorching 86.8% rate. The Gators may not know what to do with themselves when watching the Bearcats shoot from the charity stripe where they make just 67.8% of their shots which is just 248th in the nation. These misses make a difference as Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the month of December. 25* CBB Never Forget Tribute Classic Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (808)plus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (807). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (509) and the New Orleans Pelicans (510). New Orleans (13-12) has won two of their last three games with their 123-114 win over Denver on Wednesday. The Pelicans have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. The team has been without Anthony Davis for their last three games as he is dealing with a groin injury. The Pelicans hoped he could play tonight but he has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. His absence probably hurts New Orleans more on defense. Over their last five games with three without Davis, the Pelicans are allowing 117.8 PPG while seeing their opponents shoot 49.1% from the field as compared to the 110.2 PPG they are allowing this season along with an opponents’ field goal goal percentage of 46.2%. But New Orleans is still getting plenty of offensive production from DeMarcus Cousins, Jru Holiday and company. Over their last five games, the Pelicans are scoring 114.2 PPG while shooting 50% from the field which are both well above their 109.4 PPG and 48.3% shooting percentage for the season. Moving forward, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. And while this will be their third straight game at home in the Big Easy, the Pelicans have played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games on their home court Over the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow Western Conference opponents, the Pelicans have played all 5 games Over the Total.

Sacramento (7-17) has lost two straight games with their 101-95 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. The Kings have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Sacramento has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Kings have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against an opponent that allowed at least 100 points in their last contest. This team will again be without forward Willie Cauley-Stein who is out with a back injury — and this team misses his presence of the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games, Sacramento is allowing their opponents to make 50.3% of their shots. But this team is also finding a rhythm on offense as they are scoring 100.6 PPG on 48.0% shooting over those last five games which is 5 PPG more than their season average and well above their 44.3% shooting percentage for the season. The Kings lost by a 109-104 margin in their previous game in Milwaukee last Saturday — and they have played 21 of their last 29 road games Over the Total after losing their last two games by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total. And in their last 12 trips to New Orleans to play the Pelicans, the game finished Over the Total 9 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 91-24 combined angle for this situation. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (509) and the New Orleans Pelicans (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Atlanta (7-5) faces a must-win situation as they find themselves outside the NFC Playoff picture after their 14-9 upset loss as a 2-point favorite to Minnesota on Sunday. But this Falcons team also had a 7-5 record at this point last season — and they, of course, went on to play in the Super Bowl. A tough strength of schedule has contributed to their disappointing results so far relative to their sky-high expectations. Atlanta has four NFC South opponents remaining to close out their schedule — so they still likely control their own destiny. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against fellow NFC South foes. Furthermore, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of these games.

New Orleans (9-3) bounced-back from their 26-20 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams by defeating the Panthers last Sunday by a 31-21 score. The Saints have covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games after covering that 5.5-point spread against Carolina — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in at least six or seven of their last eight games. But there are some areas of concern for this team underneath their great run after dropping their first two games. Over their last three games, New Orleans has allowed 78 combined points as they are surrendering 26.0 PPG over that stretch. This Saints defense is middling against the run as they are 17th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 112.8 rushing YPG. The Falcons have a healthy Devonta Freeman back to join with Tevin Coleman in the backfield which should be able to exploit this Saints’ run defense. Furthermore, New Orleans has benefited from a favorable schedule since losing their first two games. While two games with Carolina were a challenge, they got to face the Packers with our Aaron Rodgers and the Lions completely beat up on both sides of the football along with non-playoff teams like Miami, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Washington. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Detroit (14-9) has dropped three straight games after their 96-93 loss in San Antonio on Monday. The Pistons shot just 41.2% from the field in that game which was their worst shooting effort in their last nine games. Detroit completes their four-game road trip tonight — and they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Pistons have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 11 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. Detroit is looking to avenge a 99-95 loss to the Bucks back on November 15th. But this Milwaukee team is vulnerable to the 3-point shooting attack of a Stan Van Gunny team. The Bucks are last in the NBA with an opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage of 40.2% from then field — and this Pistons team is making 37.8% of their 3-pointers. Additionally, Detroit has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when the Total is set in the 200 to 209.5 point range.

Milwaukee (12-10) enters this game coming off their 111-100 loss at Boston on Monday as a 4.5-point underdog that snapped a three-game winning streak. The Bucks are then just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Milwaukee has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 home games after winning at least two of their last three games. The Bucks are also just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games on their home court. The team will be without a key piece in Matthew Dellavedova who is out with a knee injury. Moving forward, Milwaukee is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against fellow Central Division opponents. Lastly, the underdog has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Together, these team trends produce our specific 89-27-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (515) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Washington Capitals (4) versus the Chicago Blackhawks (3). Washington (16-11-1) has won two straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 4-1 win over San Jose on Monday. The Capitals have won a decisive 14 of their last 15 games on their home ice after a victory of at least three goals. Washington has also won 45 of their last 60 games when playing with just one day of rest. The Capitals stay at home where they have won a decisive 37 of their last 51 games. Washington has also won 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 5.5. They will be without their right winger T.J. Oshie tonight who is dealing with an upper body injury. But the Capitals still have a significant edge in goalies tonight with the Blackhawks still without their injuries goaltender Corey Crawford. Washington will likely go with their ace Braden Holtby who sports a dynamite 2.06 Goals-Against-Average along with a .935 save percentage when at home this season.

Chicago (12-10-4) will be relying on their backup goalie Anton Forsberg who is taken over between the pipes for the injured Crawford. This is a big drop off in talent for the Blackhawks — and he has a rough 3.67 GAA along with an .898 save percentage in six games and five starts on the road this season. Chicago has lost four straight games after their 3-1 loss to the Kings on Sunday. The Blackhawks have then lost 17 of their last 22 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Chicago has also lost 8 of their last 12 games when playing their third game in five days. This team is struggling with the salary cap gutting this team of their supporting role cast that helped their elite core of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith win three Stanley Cups. It is shocking — but true — that the Blackhawks have lost 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Lastly, Chicago has lost 13 of their last 19 games on the road which includes dropping eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home ice. 25* NHL Wednesday NBC-Sports Network Game of the Month with the money-line on the Washington Capitals (4) versus the Chicago Blackhawks (3). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (704) minus the points versus the Utah Jazz (703). Oklahoma City (10-12) may be a surprising favorite of 7 or so points considering the trouble they have had in finding a winning chemistry on the court between Russell Westbrook with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. But the Thunder may have finally made some adjustments that will produce better results. After losing five of six games, Oklahoma City has won two straight contests with their 90-87 win over San Antonio on Sunday. The biggest difference over these last two contests has been Carmelo Anthony — the player I have argued is the key to the success of this team. Anthony had been averaging 16 shots per game — but over the last two games, he has hoisted only seventeen combined shots. Instead, Anthony is passing the ball more as he has averaged 46 passes per game over those two games which is up almost 5 passes per game versus his 41.3 passes per game seasonal average. This is an important divisional matchup for the Thunder — and they look to avenge a 96-87 loss in Utah back on October 21st despite being 4-point favorites in that game. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 54 games when playing with same-season revenge against their opponent. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in the 190-199.5 point range, Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 9 of these contests.

25* NBA Northwest Divisional Game of the Month on Oklahoma City minus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (729). Gonzaga (7-1) was expected to take a step or two back this season after losing four key players from the team that lost in the National Championship Game to North Carolina last April. The Bulldogs lost their two big men in Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins along with their best player in point guard Nigel Williams-Goss and starter Jordan Matthews which is simply a ton of talent even for elite program like Duke or Kentucky. Two starters in Johnathan Williams and Josh Perkins along with two players in the regular rotation of minutes return from last year’s team — but expectations have risen pretty quickly for this team once again. Gonzaga has two nice wins against Texas and Creighton while their only loss was a brutal defeat in double-overtime to an excellent Florida team. But the early returns may have this team feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good about themselves relative to the experienced talent on their roster. My read is that this is an overrated team right now — which offers us nice value in this non-conference showdown. The Bulldogs enter this game coming off a 91-74 win over Creighton on December 1st as a 9-point favorite. Gonzaga has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. The Bulldogs shot 54.4% from the field against the Blue Jays’ often wavering defense — and this was exactly the same mark they shot in their last game against Incarnate Word. But Gonzaga has then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 84 of their last 142 games after shooting at least 50% in their last two games under head coach Mark Few. The concern for Few has to be 3-point defense as opponents are making 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is 285th worst in the nation. Creighton made 12 shots from downtown against the Bulldogs which makes this matchup with Villanova a bit scary. This Gonzaga team is doing a good job of crashing the offensive glass as they are rebounding 35.8% of their missed shots — but the Wildcats are 17th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.3% of their missed shots.

Villanova (8-0) remains unscathed so far this season with their 94-53 blowout win over St. Joseph’s as a 14-point favorite. The Wildcats buried 19 shots from the 3-point line in that game — for the season, this team is making a remarkable 40.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is currently 34th in the nation. Overall, this Villanova team is 2nd in the nation with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency according the metrics of College Basketball guru Ken Pomeroy. They should build off the momentum of that blowout victory as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Wildcats probably retain some advantage of playing this game at Madison Square Garden which is practically their home away from given all the games they get to play there. Villanova is a dominant 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 games played against non-conference opponents. This team is loaded with talent once again led by one of the best point guards in the nation in Jalen Bruson along with a future NBA player in 6’7 junior Mikal Bridges — Pomeroy ranks this team the best in the nation according to his metrics (for what that is worth). The difference in this contest will likely be the elite defense that the Wildcats play — they rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The one thing they are not going to do is put Gonzaga on the line as they rank 3rd in the nation with an opponent’s free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 18.3%. Lastly, the Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Jimmy V Classic Game of the Year with the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (729). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) and the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Cincinnati (5-6) exploded for 30 points last week with their 30-16 victory over the winless Bengals as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bengals generated 405 yards of offense which was far above their league-bottom 274.3 total YPG average this season. Cincinnati is scoring only 18.1 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. One of the league’s worst offensive lines is the biggest culprit for these problems on offense and helps to explain why they are 26th in the NFL with the pass (198.6 passing YPG) and last in the league with the run (75.6 rushing YPG). The Bengals have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight up victory. The Cincinnati defense has been solid this season — despite being on the field too much given their anemic offense. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL by allowing just 19.5 PPG. Cincy did give up 361 yards last week — but they have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Bengals have played 12 of these games Under the Total.

Pittsburgh (9-2) has won six straight games with their 31-28 win over Green Bay last Sunday night. The Steelers defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed (289.4 total YPG) and 4th in points allowed (17.5 PPG) — so they will likely have a chip on their shoulder after letting QB Brett Hundley almost steal that game against them. Pittsburgh did gain 462 yards on offense — but they have then seen the Under go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now Pittsburgh goes on the road where they have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and this includes playing ten of their last eleven road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Under is 13-4-1 in the Steelers’ last 18 games against AFC North opponents. Lastly, in the last 7 meetings between these two teams, the game has finished Under the Total 5 times. 25* NFL AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) and the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Hollywood Sports’ 25* CBB BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH
Frank Sawyer

At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (526) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (525). Penn State (7-2) looks to stop a nine-game losing streak to the Badgers tonight — and eight players return from last year’s 15-18 team that got blown out in their last meetings with Wisconsin by an 82-55 score back on January 24th. Last year’s Nittany Lions were an underrated team that could have made a postseason tournament if they would have had better luck in eking out close games. Penn State lost four games by three points or less last year while dropping an additional two games in overtime. That was a young team last year that did not know how to win games — but now this team has four sophomores and two juniors as the core of their top seven rotation. The Nittany Lions come off an important 77-73 victory at Iowa on Saturday where they pulled out that game on the road despite not playing well. The Hawkeyes shot 50.9% from the field which was the second worst defensive performance of the season for Penn State. And the Nittany Lions shot just 43.7% from the field which was their fourth worst shooting effort this year. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Penn State returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 while outscoring their opponents by +20.0 PPG. The Nittany Lions are playing tough defense at home as they are holding their opponents to just 60.4 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 38.8%. Penn State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record, the Nittany Lions are 10-1-1 ATS.

Wisconsin (3-5) is really struggling this season in what may be a dramatic step back for their program. The Badgers have lost two straight games after their 83-58 upset loss at home to Ohio State as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Four of Wisconsin’s top five scorers from last season — accounting for 43.6 PPG — are gone from last year which has been difficult for them to replace. The Badgers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Now Wisconsin goes on the road where they are 0-3 this season while scoring just 57.3 PPG on a low 39.9% shooting percentage. Lastly, the Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Penn State. 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Penn State Nittany Lions (526) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (377) and the Seattle Seahawks (378). Philadelphia (10-1) has won nine straight games with their 31-3 win over Chicago last week. The Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders right now — they generated 420 yards of offense against an underrated Bears defense. Philadelphia has then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four of their last five road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total in the month of December. And in their last 11 games played on field turf, Philadelphia has played 9 of these games Over the Total.

25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (363) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (364). Indianapolis (3-8) looks to avenge a 27-0 shutout loss at home to these Jaguars back on October 22nd. The Colts have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns to their opponent. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns against their opponents. Furthermore, the Colts have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where they failed to score more than 9 points — and this includes covering their last three games in that situation. Indianapolis has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 20-16 loss to Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog. The Colts have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in a decisive 32 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Indy goes back on the road — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Jacksonville (7-4) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Arizona last week despite being a 6-point favorite. While this team has an outstanding defense, the Achilles’ heel of this team continues to be the play of QB Blake Bortles. The embattled quarterback completed 19 of 33 passes but for only 160 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception. Overall, the Jags produced only 128 passing yards in that game when taking into account lost yards from sacks — and the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for at leas 150 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Jacksonville returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games after playing their last two games on the road, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (363) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (322) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (321). Auburn (10-2) registered one of their biggest wins in school history last Saturday with their 26-14 upset win over a previously undefeated Alabama team as a 6-point underdog. This Tigers team will be hard pressed to not suffer an emotional letdown now after that huge accomplishment. Even worse, they will be playing a Georgia team that they crushed less than a month ago in their 40-17 drubbing of the Bulldogs. We had the Tigers as the small 2.5-point underdog in that contest (our SEC Game of the Year) so those were great results for us — and that result also set up this outstanding situation in the rematch. It is human nature for teams to lack just a little bit of edge after their intense game with Alabama when now facing a team that you just easily handled. And as it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory as a home under. But the effort from that game may take a toll against this fired-up Georgia team. Running back Kerryon Johnson ran the ball 30 times for 104 yards against the tough Alabama defense which is a lot of work. Furthermore, both the Tigers’ wins against Georgia and Alabama were at home. This game will be played on a neutral field in Atlanta in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both of Auburn’s losses were away from home this season — and they average almost 55 YPG (415.6 YPG) below their season average (470.2 total YPG) when playing on the road.

Georgia (11-1) has that rare opportunity for both revenge and redemption all in one-swoop while most likely earning the right to play for a National Championship with a victory in this contest. The Bulldogs did not suffer from possibly seeing their bubble burst two weeks ago as they throttled their in-state rival Georgia Tech by a 38-7 score last week. Georgia has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs are led by two dynamic running backs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who helped Georgia generate 247 yards on the ground against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing or at least 200 yards in their last game. But the strength of this team is their defense that ranks 5th in the FBS by allowing 13.8 PPG and 4th in the nation by allowing only 271.9 total YPG. Since that bad loss to Auburn, Georgia has allowed only 20 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in at least two straight contests. The Bulldogs should have a geographical advantage with this game being played in downtown Atlanta — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when played on a neutral field. Georgia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 games against Auburn despite their loss to them last month, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* CFB Conference Championships Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (322) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (319) and the Toledo Rockets (320). Akron (7-5) will be playing the Mid-American Championship Game as a significant underdog considering that they were blown out by the Rockets back on October 21st by a 48-21 score in a game that they managed only 333 yards of offense. Since that game, the Zips have won three of their last four games due in large measure to improved play on the defensive side of the football. They clinched the MAC East Title in their last game back on November 21st with their 24-14 in over Kent State as a 14.5-point favorite led by a defense that held the Golden Flashes to just 246 total yards. Over their last three games, Akron is allowing only 353.7 total YPG which is 67.8 YPG below their season average. The Zips have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Akron has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Zips have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The offense is an issue with redshirt freshman Kato Nelson taking over for senior Thomas Woodson who was suspended a few weeks ago for violating team rules but will be available to play in this game. Nelson completed only 6 of 20 passes for 69 yards against Kent State last week. Over their last three weeks, Akron has averaged just 302.3 total YPG. Furthermore, this game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit as a neutral site — and the Zips score only 16.7 PPG while averaging 284.7 total YPG when away from home.

Toledo (10-2) reaches the Mid-American Conference Championship Game after their 37-10 win over Western Michigan back last Friday. The Rockets have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Toledo has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 20 or less points in their last game. The Toledo defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the potent Broncos offense to just 275 yards of offense. Moving forward, the Rockets have seen the Under go 23-8-1 in their last 32 games against teams with a winning record. Toledo has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 4 games played on a neutral field, the Rockets have played all 4 games Under the Total. Together, these team trends produce our specific 91-26-1 combined angle for this situation. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (319) and the Toledo Rockets (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Dallas (5-6) has fallen on hard times after Ezekiel Elliott began serving his six-game suspension as they ave lost three straight games after their 28-6 loss to the Chargers last Thursday on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ offense has been a complete disaster as they have scored only a combined 22 points while failing to reach double-digits in all three of those games. Given that, it might be very tempting to take the Under — but this is a good situation to take the contrarian play with the Over. I do expect the Dallas’ offense behind QB Dak Prescott to be much better with a full week of practice under their belts. Remember, the Elliott injury came at the very worst time in terms of the schedule with the Cowboys playing three games over an twelve day period. They simply did not have much time to address the problems with the offense after that Falcons game with the Giants coming to town just four days later. Furthermore, left tackle Tyron Smith has had a full week to getting healthier after the Dallas offense spent the entire first-half in their game last Thursday avoiding running the ball to his side. But even if the Cowboys’ offense remains limited without Elliott, the defense presents another set of problems for this team. The Dallas defense has surrendered 92 combined points over their last three games. At home this season, the Cowboys are allowing 25.8 PPG along with 368.0 total YPG. Additionally, Dallas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and linebacker Sean Lee has been declared out for this game once again this week.

Washington (5-6) enters this game coming off their 20-10 win over the Giants last Thursday. The Skins have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Washington held the Giants to just 84 rushing yards in that contest — and they have then played 8 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushes in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing 26.2 PPG along with 420.8 total YPG. The Skins have played 20 of their last 28 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes playing five straight road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, Washington has played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog of 7 points or less. And the Skins have played 7 straight road games Over the Total against fellow NFC East opponents. Washington has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against NFC East teams overall. Furthermore, the Skins have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 games in the month of November, Washington has played 5 of these games Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, in the last 4 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Over the Total all four times. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (765) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (766). Duke (8-0) is absolutely loaded with talent this season — this as an impressive a Blue Devils team as I have seen in many years. They should overwhelm this Hoosiers team that is in a major rebuilding mode after Tom Crean was let go and three of his players left the program to take their chances in the professional ranks. Duke did not play particularly well Sunday night but did what they needed to do to rally from an early 15-point lead and then another 14-point deficit with under 10 minutes to go to take an 87-84 victory. The Blue Devils only shot 43.9% from the field — but they did make 10 of their 23 shots from the 3-point line (43.5%). Frankly, this team is like the big and powerful North Carolina teams of the last few seasons — except this team will shoot and make more 3-pointers. 6’11 freshman Marvin Bagley deserves the hype he is receiving — he averaged 26.5 PPG while pulling down 13.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in four games last week. He is joined by 6’10 freshman Wendell Carter to give this team incredible size down low. The Blue Devils lead the nation by pulling down 43.2% of their missed shots. Mike Krzyzewski has embraced shot volume as his team’s defining characteristic — and that has helped them lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so far this season. Look for Duke to build off this momentum as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Blue Devils have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Big Ten opponents. Additionally, Duke is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in the last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Blue Devils are 6-0-1 ATS.

Indiana (4-2) has won three straight games with their 87-67 win over Eastern Michigan back on Friday as a 10.5-point favorite. But the Hoosiers are then 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread victory. Head coach Archie Miller took for this historic program after Tom Creen was dismissed after a disappointing 18-16 season that ended in a first-round loss in the NIT to Georgia Tech. Three players departed early from that team to test the waters in the NBA which leaves this group bereft of talent. There are basic questions regarding this team this season relating to their depth, play at the point guard position, go-to scorers and improving the terrible defensive play that plagued this team in the Creen era. Besides all that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Miller’s teams at Dayton were known for their physical-play where they focused on rebounding and tough defense. This year’s Hoosiers are pulling down only 30.2% of their missed shots (213th in the nation). So far, the play on defense has been even worse than last year as they rank 195th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while also ranking 253rd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.3%. Opponents are making an incredible 44.8% of their 3-pointers so far this season which is 342nd in the nation — and that is downright scary when facing Grayson Allen and this Duke group of athletes. Indiana is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Hoosiers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against ACC opponents. Lastly, Assembley Hall has not offered this team safe haven as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. 25* CBB ACC-Big Ten Challenge Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (765) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (766). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (702) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (701). Washington (11-9) had lost four of their last five games before they pulled a 92-89 upset win at Minnesota last night. But the Wizards have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. This team remains without John Wall who is dealing with a knee injury so the Wizards will be without their best player again tonight. Now this team travels without a day of rest to travel to Philadelphia where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. Furthermore, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Philadelphia (11-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 113-91 loss to the Cavaliers as a 2-point underdog. The 76ers have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. The team is dealing with some injuries with rookie Markelle Fultz out with a shoulder injury and Ben Simmons dealing with an ankle — but Simmons may be back on the court tonight. But this Philly team now has depth with the underrated T.J. McConnell still there to play point guard with veterans J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson added to the mix that is led by rising star Joel Embiid. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while this Philly team has five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. The 76ers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Lastly, Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 120-115 win over the Wizards in Washington as a 6.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 47 of their last 71 games when playing with revenge which includes covering the point spread in twenty-six of their last thirty-nine games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (702) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (701). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total (of 3.0) in the match between Stoke City (35568) and Liverpool (35567). Liverpool (6-5-2) returns to the pitch looking to get back into the Top Four of the English Premier League table after falling to 6th place on Saturday with their 1-1 draw with Chelsea. That was the second straight match where the Reds surrendered a lead after blowing a 3-0 lead last Tuesday in a midweek Champions League match with Sevilla that ended in a 3-3 draw. Defense was an issue for this team last year that lacks depth in their back-line and too often plays sloppy in manager Jurgen Clop’s high-pressing system. Liverpool has allowed 16 goals in their six matches on the road in EPL action this season. But the Pool Boys are a powerful on offense as they are 3rd in the EPL with 25 goals for the year. Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino did not play in that match against Chelsea as they were given the day off after that Champions League match. Both players should be back on the pitch this afternoon which will boost their offensive attack.

Stoke City (3-4-6) looks to bounce-back from an embarrassing 2-1 loss at Crystal Palace on Saturday. The Potters took a 1-0 lead against the basement team in the EPL table but blew a one-goal lead for the third time in their last two league matches. In theory, this is supposed to be a defensive team under manager Mark Hughes. In practice, they have produced only one clean sheet in their last eleven matches while allowing at least two goals in eight of their last ten contests. This team really missed their top keeper Jack Butland who is the English national team’s top goalkeeper — but he is out with an injury and backup Lee Grant does not make as many spectacular saves. But if there is a bright side for this team, it is that they are starting to score more goals as they have found the back of the net five times in their last three matches. Striker Saido Berahino did not play on Saturday against Crystal Palace but both he and Ramadan Sobhi who has been injured should be back on the pitch for this important match at home. Stoke City should score at least once — and perhaps twice — in what will be likely a losing effort to Liverpool. But that should be enough to reach our Over. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total (of 3.0) in the match between Stoke City (35568) and Liverpool (35567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (507) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (508). Denver (11-8) has won six of their last nine games with their 104-92 victory over Memphis on Friday. The team shot 50.6% from the field while dominating the boards by out-rebounding the Grizzlies by a 50-23 margin. The team is with Paul Millsap who is dealing with a wrist injury — but his absence has pushed their 7’0 rising star in Nikola Jokic to take on more of a leadership role on the court. The 22-year old has scored 20.3 PPG while adding 11.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 4.7 Assists-Per-Game in the three games since Millsap has been out. The Nuggets will be well rested for this contest — and they are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing with at least three days of rest. Denver has also covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Furthermore, Denver has covered the point spread in 44 of their last 72 road games as the underdog.

Utah (9-11) has won three of their last four games with their 121-108 upset win over Milwaukee on Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. The Jazz enjoyed their best shooting performance of the season in that victory as they made 56.8% of their shots which shattered their second best shooting effort of the season which was a 49.4% clip that they have achieved twice. Expect Utah to get a visit from the Regression Gods tonight when it comes to potential friendly bounces on the rim. Not only have the Jazz failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 100 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 115 points. This team is also missing an important big man with Rudy Gobert out with a tibula injury. Utah is also missing an important piece in Joe Johnson with a wrist injury. But it is Gobert who plays the essential role in anchoring their defense. The Jazz allowed the Bucks to make 53.2% of their shots on Saturday — and they have allowed four of their last seven opponents to shoot at least 51.2% of their shots without the “French Rejection” down low. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Jazz have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against opponents that scored at least 100 points in their last contest. Lastly, the Nuggets will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing to the Jazz in Salt Lake City back on October 18th in the last meeting between these two teams. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (507) plus the points versus the Utah Jazz (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (275) and the Baltimore Ravens (276). Baltimore (5-5) pitched their third shutout of the season — and second in their last three games — with their 23-0 win at Green Bay last Sunday. The strong Ravens’ defense has facilitated the Total being set at a low number below 40 (as of this writing) — so lets attack that Over. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. And while this Baltimore offense looks anemic with their 21.3 PPG scoring mark which is 18th in the league, they are getting better on that side of the ball as they get healthier after suffering from a barrage of injuries. In their last three games, the Ravens are scoring 27.7 PPG while still not getting very aggressive with their play-calling with their two of those games being blowout shutouts. Their close game in their last three games was a 23-20 loss at Tennessee in a game where Joe Flacco aired the football out 53 times for 268 passing yards. Those are Over numbers. Moving forward, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents.

Houston (4-6) enter this game coming off their 31-21 win over Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite. The Texans have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games after a win by double-digits. Houston has also played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory — and they have played 10 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory when playing on the road. Additionally, that game finished well above the 38-point Total in that game and not only have the Texans played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Head coach Bill O’Brien always gets the most out of his offensive talent. Led by QB Tom Savage who completed 22 of 32 passes for 230 yards, Houston generated 357 yards of offense against the Cardinals. The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Houston held Arizona to just 48 rushing yards, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (275) and the Baltimore Ravens (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). These are too many points to pass up in this situation — even with Aaron Rodgers not playing for the Packers. Pittsburgh (8-2) finally demonstrated the vast potential that many pundits feel they possess back on November 16th when they crushed the Colts by a 40-17 score as 7-point favorites. Yet they only outgained Indianapolis by 27 yards. It was a +4 net turnover margin that helped the Steelers dominate that game. But Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when installed as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of November.

Green Bay (5-5) has something to prove after being shutout last week in a 23-0 blanking at the hands of Baltimore. That Ravens team has shut out two other teams this season — so the Packers do have some company in that regard. Green Bay has lost four of their last five games as they continue to struggle without Rodgers — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing you of their last five games. The Pack has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — but they have also covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. I am not sure how they will score points against this stout Steelers defense but that is the job of Super Bowl winning head coach and offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. QB Brett Hundley three three interceptions in that loss so eliminating those mistakes will go a long way to keep Green Bay competitive in this game. Green Bay needs to commit to running the ball more as well after managing just 75 rushing yards against the Ravens. Remember, in their previous game in Chicago against a good Bears defense, the Packers ran the ball 37 times for 160 yards in a 23-16 upset victory. The Packers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Green Bay defense did limit Baltimore to only 58 rushing yards — and they are then 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. While it certainly looks scary to take this Packers team without Rodgers against the mighty Steelers, it is the sound fundamental play for this situation. Lets embrace the Philadelphia 76ers and “trust the process.” 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Toronto Argonauts (656) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (655). Calgary (14-4-1) has made the long trek back to the Grey Cup Championship Game after an epic CFL campaign last year was ruined with a 39-33 loss in overtime to Ottawa on the last Sunday in November last season. The Stampeders kept most of their core intact to redeem themselves from last year’s disappointment — and they tore through the regular season which afforded them the opportunity to rest players to be as prepared as physically possible to win the championship this year. I thought the Stamps would come out like gangbusters last week hosting the West Division Final against Edmonton — but they were flat and fell behind by a 14-0 score before rallying to take a 22-15 lead going into halftime and surviving a 32-28 victory over the Eskimos. Edmonton head coach Jason Maas committed a bonehead call of the ages late in that game when he elected to have his team kick a short field goal rather than go for in on 3rd and four (or so — this all going off memory having watched that game, usually I would refer back to the official boxscore). Maas’ decision ruined our point spread cover with the Stamps laying 5 points — but it also cost his team a real chance of pulling the upset if they would have converted that 3rd down and scored a touchdown (or, Coach Maas, if you would have turned the ball over on downs but your defense then forced Calgary to punt — like they would have needed to anyways with successful field goal — your team could have still had time to score a game-tying (or winning with a 2-point conversion) touchdown. The Stampeders were outgained in yardage in that game — and that effort compels me to believe that nothing will be easy for this team if they do accomplish their goal of winning the Grey Cup for the first time since 2014. Regulars know I like to analyze team trends to identify a personality of a team to help diagnose how they have reacted to similar situations. The numbers scream out in this situation. The Stampeders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. Furthermore, Calgary is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the playoffs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last Grey Cups. The Stamps have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. This game is being played on a neutral field in Ottawa — but that is doing no favors this Calgary team out west. They are only outgaining their opponents by +4.0 PPG away from home — and the most telling stat is that they are only outgaining these teams by +2.4 YPG given suspect play from their defense that allows 356.6 total YPG away from home.

Toronto (10-9) has been a team all season that I thought could make a late run to be dangerous in the playoffs ever since my salad days of June when I do my deep dives on all nine CFL teams. Their head coach Marc Trestman was returning to the CFL for the first time since 2012 after spending a number of seasons in the NFL as an offensive coordinator as well as the head coach for the Chicago Bears for a few seasons. Trestman helped build a dynasty in Montreal with his best asset with the Alouettes being veteran quarterback Anthony Calvillo. The Argonauts seemed a perfect destination for Trestman given the presence of Ricky Ray. The 37-year old is the Dean of all CFL quarterbacks since Calvillo retired. He has multiple Grey Cup Championships under his belt but the biggest question for him over the last few seasons has been keeping his healthy for November football. Voila. Toronto enters this game hot after winning six of their last eight contests with their 25-21 win over Saskatchewan last week. The Stampeders did sweep the regular season series between these two teams with their last meeting way back on August 26th. This Argonauts team is much different now. Running back James Wilder (from Florida State) emerged since then to earn Most Outstanding Rookie honors and his rushing threat has opened up the passing game for Ray. The Argos also added cornerback Mitchell White who helped the defense lower the passing yards they were allowing by 10 YPG. So, this is a much better team — and taking hot underdogs in the playoffs is the formula for success in the long-winding CFL season. In the month of November, CFL underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range who have won three of their last four games have then covered the point spread in 30 of the last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFL Game of the Year with the Toronto Argonauts (656) plus the points versus the Calgary Stampeders (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (270) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (269). Jacksonville (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 19-7 win in Cleveland last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread victory. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Defense has been leading the way for this team — they held the Browns to only 184 yards of offense. But the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents.

25* NFL Game of the Month with Arizona plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (199) and the LSU Tigers (200). Texas A&M (7-4) will be playing one for their head coach Kevin Sumlin who has been reported by the Houston Chronicle earlier this week that he will be relieved of his coaching duties win or loss after this game. Expect the Aggies to play hard — particularly on defense — in this contest. Texas A&M comes off a 31-24 victory at Ole Miss last week as a 2.5-point favorite. The Aggies have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, Texas A&M has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a close victory by 7 points or less against a conference rival. Now the Aggies stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total — and this includes playing 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

LSU (8-3) once again boasts a stout defense as they are holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG along with only 314.4 total YPG which ranks 18th and 15th best in the FBS. The Tigers enter this game coming off their 30-10 win at Tennessee last week as a 17-point favorite. LSU held the Volunteers to just 287 yards of offense — but they managed only 281 yards themselves. The Under is 9-3-2 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 6-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 10 games are a point spread in win. The Tigers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an SEC team rival. LSU returns home to Baton Rouge where they have seen the Under go 9-3-2 in their last 14 home games — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of November. Lastly, in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total. Together, these team trends produce our specific 89-17-7 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (199) and the LSU Tigers (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (163) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (164). Kansas State (6-5) enters this game coming off a big 45-40 upset victory on the road at Oklahoma State last week as a 19.5-point underdog. The Wildcats won that game despite losing the first down battle by a 30-18 margin while being outgained by 89 yards. Expect Kansas State to suffer a letdown in this game against a feisty Cyclones team. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Kansas State did rush for 217 yards in that game — but they are then just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And in their last 10 home games as the favorite rather than the underdog role that head coach Bill Snyder loves to have his team embrace, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

Iowa State (7-4) looks to build off their 23-13 win at Baylor last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Cyclones are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 20 points. The Cyclones have been capable road warriors who are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Iowa State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 meetings with the Wildcats, the Cyclones are 4-1-1 ATS. Together, these team trends produce our specific 48-9-9 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (163) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (164). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (153) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (154). Michigan (8-3) limps into The Game coming off a 24-10 loss at Wisconsin last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, they lost their redshirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters to a concussion in that game (which likely also cost them the point spread cover — and perhaps even an outright victory). Peters has not practiced this week with head coach Jim Harbaugh mum on who will be under center for his offense. The answer is likely John O’Korn despite the fact that the 5th year senior has been completely ineffective operating the passing game after he took over for the injured Wilton Spright. The fundamental problem for O’Korn is his inability to grasp the skills in reading progressions after his primary initial receiver. The book was written on O’Korn by the end of his freshman season at Houston — and it is the reason he was eventually benched his sophomore year. And despite Quarterback Camps and transferring to play for the Quarterback Whisperer in Harbaugh, O’Korn simply has not been able to develop this skill. It happens. But now defenses can cheat in coverage and in stacking the box to stop the run based off his initial movements — and this gives opposing defenses too much of an advantage because O’Korn has not shown the ability to burn them. As it is, Michigan is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Wolverines managed just 234 yards of offense against the Badgers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards of offense. The Big House has not been much of an advantage for this team as of late either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS.

Ohio State (9-2) enters this game with plenty at stake with a victory ensuring them a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin where a victory there will put them in a very good position to find their way into the College Football Playoff. QB J.T. Barrett cost his team with interceptions in their bad loss on the road at Iowa. Not only do I expect Barrett to play better in this rivalry game in his senior season but head coach Urban Meyer will likely emphasize running the football behind a very motivated sophomore running back Mike Weber from Detroit who spurned the Wolverines in a recruiting battle to attend Ohio State. The Buckeyes enter this game coming off their 52-14 win over Illinois last week in a game where their defense held the Illini to just 105 yards of offense. Ohio State is then 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes are also 45-24-1 ATS in their last 70 games on the road — and they are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, not only have the Buckeyes covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Ann Arbor. 25* CFB Rivalry Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (153) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (121) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (122). Northern Illinois (8-3) still has an outside chance to win the MAC West title and play in next Friday’s Mid-American Conference Championship Game with a victory in this game along with a loss by Toledo in their game concurrently going on with Western Michigan. The Huskies have won two straight games since their loss to the Rockets after their 35-31 win over Western Michigan as an 8.5-point favorite. Northern Illinois has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Huskies rushed for 248 yards in that victory — and they are then 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois averages 191.8 rushing YPG — and they should have success running the football against this Chippewas defense that ranks 98th in the FBS by allowing 195.5 rushing YPG. Ground games travel which is one of the reasons why Northern Illinois is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by 3 points or less. And in their last 21 games in the month of November, Northern Illinois is 14-6-1 ATS.

Central Michigan (7-4) looks to build off their 42-23 win at Kent State last week as a 17-point favorite. QB Shane Morris completed 14 of 22 passes for 297 yards in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the Chippewas were outgained by 44 yards in that victory due to giving up 320 passing yards to the lowly Golden Flashes — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite their 7-4 record, Central Michigan is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 net YPG. The Chippewas were fortunate to win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Central Michigan has not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Lastly, the Huskies will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 34-28 loss at home to the Chippewas last season. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year on the Northern Illinois Huskies (121) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (112) minus the points versus the New York Giants (111). Washington (4-6) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 34-31 overtime loss in New Orleans last Sunday. The Skins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss. That loss may have cost this Washington team a realistic shot of making the playoffs — but after being riddled with injuries all season, one consistent characteristic of this group which has been epitomized by QB Kirk Cousins has been their resiliency. Look for the benefit of playing this game at home on a short week to help this team tonight where they are outgaining their opponent by +60.4 net YPG. The Skins have played two straight high-scoring games where 65 and 68 combined points have been scored — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 30 combined points were scored. Washington did allow 375 passing yards last week to the Saints — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Skins have not covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 59 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games — including three straight. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of November. The Skins have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. And they will be looking to avenge a 19-10 upset loss to the Giants back on January 1st despite being a 9.5-point favorite in that game.

New York (2-8) responded to personal meetings and pleas from head coach Ben McAdoo last week as they pulled a 12-9 upset in overtime as a 10-point underdog to Kansas City last week. That snapped a three-game losing streak but it looks to difficult for this team to keep up that level of intensity in a lost season when now playing on the road on a short week when they all would rather be celebrating Thanksgiving. As it is, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Giants benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Chiefs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a net turnover margin of +2 or more in their last game. That is not a good characteristic for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Lastly, while the Skins are hit hard with injuries, the situation for McAdoo’s team may be worse with Justin Pugh and D.J. Fluker out on what was already a suspect offensive line headlining their rash of injuries on both sides of the football. 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (112) minus the points versus the New York Giants (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (107) and the Detroit Lions (108). Minnesota (8-2) stymied the high-powered Rams offense on Sunday in their 24-7 victory where they held that Sean McVay offense to just 254 total yards. The Vikings should continue to flex their muscles on defense as they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Minnesota did generate 451 yards against the Rams’ defense — but the Under is 17-7-1 in their last 25 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Vikings go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 23 games against fellow NFC North opponents, the Vikings have played 18 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games played on a short week on a Thursday Under the Total.

Detroit (6-4) has defeated the Vikings in three straight games despite managing just four combined touchdowns in those contests. The Lions managed just 251 yards of offense back on October 1st in their 14-7 win at Minnesota. But Detroit held the Vikings to only 284 yards of offense in that effort. The Lions come off a 27-24 win at Chicago last week where they scored a defensive touchdown with a 27-yard fumble recovery. QB Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 31 passes for 299 yards — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Lions rushed for just 65 rushing yards against Chicago — and they have then played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 rushing yards. These two teams tend to play Unders. Not only have they played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Detroit including last Thanksgiving where the Lions defeated Minnesota by a 16-13 score. With this game being played on a short week, expect the recent team trends between these two teams to continue to consistent. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (107) and the Detroit Lions (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (73) and the Arizona Coyotes (74). San Jose (10-8-0) looks to snap their three-game losing streak with their 3-2 loss to Anaheim on Monday. The Sharks have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Scoring has been an issue for this team — as epitomized by the play of defenseman Brett Burns who has yet to score this season while registering a mere 7 points in nineteen games after being one of the best offensive players on the blue-line in the entire NHL. San Jose is getting outstanding play from their goalie Martin Jones when on the road this year where he owns an outstanding 1.01 Goals-Against-Average along with a .967 save percentage in four starts. The Sharks have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. San Jose has also seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. Furthermore, the Under is a decisive 30-11-18 in the Sharks’ last 59 games against fellow Pacific Division opponents.

Arizona (5-15-2) has won three straight games with their 4-1 upset win in Toronto on Monday. The team has overcome a disastrous start due to better goaltending as of late. Tonight goalie Anntti Raanta has won his last three starts while allowing only three goals with a sparkling .950 save percentage over his last two starts. The Coyotes played a front-loaded schedule on the road which did not help their start but Raanta has a solid 2.51 Goals-Against-Average with a .921 save percentage at home this year. Arizona has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory. The Under is also 7-3-1 in the Coyotes’ last 11 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. And in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record, the Under is 9-4-1. Lastly, in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Arizona, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-21-22 combined angle for this situation. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose Sharks (73) and the Arizona Coyotes (74). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (507) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (508). Los Angeles (5-11) is desperate for a victory having dropped nine straight games and eleven of their last twelve after their embarrassing 107-85 loss in New York to the Knicks as a 1.5-point favorite. The Clippers have bounced back to cover the pint spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And while that setback to the Knicks came on the heels to their 15-point loss in Charlotte on Saturday, Doc Rivers’ team has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two straight games by double-digits. Despite moving on Chris Paul, the Clippers were considering a sleeper team to still compete in the Western Conference given some savvy pickups that offered Rivers more depth than perhaps at any time in his tenure in Los Angeles. But injuries have impacted this team with 6’10 forward Danilo Gallinari and point guard Patrick Beverley both missing time — and they were likely the top two offseason acquisitions of the nine new players on this season’s roster. Beverley did return to the court on Monday and logged in 22 minutes so he should be able to log in more time tonight. Even without Gallinari, there is plenty of talent on this team with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Austin Rivers being joined by Beverley and Lou Williams among others. (6 PM ET UPDATE: Beverley re-injured himself and will miss significant time. With the Clippers still  having Williams and Rivers in the backcourt and the team likely all stepping up with the news of this injury, this remains a strong 25* play -- Thanks, Frank). Not having won a game since November 1st, the Clippers need to take advantage of this opportunity in facing a lowly Hawks team. It is telling that the oddsmakers still have Los Angeles favored despite this losing streak — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 36 road games when laying no more than 6 points as the favorite. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%, LA has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Additionally, this is the fifth straight game for this team against Eastern Conference opponents as they continue this east coast swing — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after playing at least three straight games against Eastern Conference foes.

Atlanta (3-14) has lost two straight games with their 96-85 loss at San Antonio on Monday. The Hawks have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a loss on the road by at least 10 points. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 85 points in their last game. This was always shaping up to be a rebuilding year with the team losing Paul Millsap in the offseason. Dwight Howard has also moved on with that experiment failing — but the team lacks star power until they start taking advantage of their likely drafting spot in the lottery. Additionally, the team is undermanned with injuries to Mike Muscala and Luke Bobbitt. That is not a good sign when considering that this Hawks team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. And in their last 15 home games against Western Conference opponents, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these contests. 25* NBA Road Warrior Wipeout with the Los Angeles Clippers (507) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) plus (or minus) the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (475). Seattle (6-3) has won five of their last six games with their 22-16 win at Arizona back on November 9th. This Seahawks team is battered with injuries with Richard Sherman and like Kam Chancellor likely out the season. But the team still has QB Russell Wilson and the group does have the benefit of having eleven days off to rest and prepare for this game. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Seahawks have held their last two opponents to just 34 and 51 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Seattle is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of November. And in their last 11 games played on Monday Night Football, the Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS.

Atlanta (5-4) has won two of their last three games after their defeated a depleted Cowboys team last week by a 27-7 score. Dallas is simply a weak football team without the services of running back Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith — so that win needs to be taken with a few grains of salt. We have the Falcons in that game (our 25* NFC Game of the Month) so were very happy with their blowout victory — but Atlanta has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Atlanta has also played failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Falcons held the Cowboys to just 233 yards of offense in that victory — and they have then gone 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on the road, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 65-28-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (476) plus (or minus) the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Philadelphia (8-1) returns from their bye week off coming off a 51-23 win over the Broncos back on November 5th. The Eagles have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Philadelphia generated 419 yards in that victory — and they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after averaging at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the reasons that is making the Eagles so tough this season is their Red Zone offense as they are tops in the league in that category with QB Carson Wentz throwing 15 passing TDs in the Red Zone with zero interceptions. This efficiency has helped them score 31.4 PPG which is second best in the NFL so far this season. The Philly defense has also been outstanding as they held the Broncos to just 226 yards of offense. But the Over is then 16-6-2 in the Eagles’ last 24 games after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes on the road where they have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four of their last five road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 12 games against fellow NFC East rivals, the Eagles have played 10 of these games Over the Total.

Dallas (5-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in their 27-7 loss in Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cowboys really missed left tackle Tyron Smith in that game as his replacement, Chaz Green, was repeatedly burned by the Falcons pass rush that accumulated eight sacks in that game. Priority number one for this Dallas offense is addressing this issue as Smith will not be able to suit up for this game. Expect the Cowboys to commit to running the football more after running the ball only 21 times against the Falcons which was their second fewest attempts of the season. That game was still a 17-7 score entering the 4th quarter so the play-calling should not be blamed on falling behind to Atlanta too early in the game. A commitment to running the football will open up QB Dak Prescott’s play-action passing — and he should find success throwing the football against this Eagles defense that ranks 26th in the NFL by allowing 249.4 passing YPG. Dallas has played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And with Prescott getting sacked eight times, the Cowboys ended up with just 126 passing yards last week. Dallas has then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. Lastly, in their last 5 games against NFC foes, the Cowboys have played 4 of these games Over the Total. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Calgary Stampeders (654) minus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (653). Calgary (13-4-1) enters the playoffs having lost three straight games after they were upset in their last regular season game by West Division rival Winnipeg back on November 3rd by a 23-5 score as an 8.5-point favorite. Starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell along with a number of other core players did not play in that game to rest and prepare for the playoffs. It has been Grey Cup Championship or bust for this team all season after they enjoyed one of the most dominant regular season campaigns in Canadian Football League history last year with a 15-2-1 record before getting stunned in the Grey Cup Final to Ottawa in a 39-33 overtime loss. I think this team looks poised to explode with a big game against an Eskimos team that just defeated them by a 29-20 score back on October 28th. Calgary has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after an upset loss to a division rival in their last game. The Stampeders have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Calgary has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after a game where 31 or fewer combined points were scored. The Stamps are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow West Division rivals. Home field advantage will play a big role as well as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. And in their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range, Calgary has covered the point spread 12 times. With most of the team intact from the disappointing end from last season, expect a big effort from this Stampeders team.

Edmonton (13-6) enters this game coming off a 39-32 win at Winnipeg last week in the opening round of the playoffs. The Eskimos generated 473 yards of offense while averaging 8.45 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Edmonton has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 8.1 YPP. Furthermore, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a very tough assignment for this Edmonton team that is playing on the road for their third straight contest. The Eskimos have failed to cove the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to play in the Divisional Finals of the playoffs. Edmonton is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games on the road. And in their last 6 trips to Calgary, the Eskimos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. 25* CFL West Division Game of the Year with the Calgary Stampeders (654) minus the points versus the Edmonton Eskimos (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (470) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (469). Denver (3-6) has lost five straight games after their embarrassing 41-16 loss to New England last Sunday night. The Broncos were only outgained by 57 yards in that game which typically indicates a closer game — but everything went wrong for this Denver team that blew this game (and our big play with the Under) due to terrible special teams play. John Elway labeled his team “soft” after that game — and his calling out his personnel should motivate the team to erase their losing streak and get back into the winning column as they are all playing for their jobs. As it is, the Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. And while Denver has not covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while the “No Fly Zone” defense allowed Tom Brady to pass for 266 yards in that game, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Despite giving up 92 points in their last two games, this Denver defense still ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing only 293.6 total YPG.

Cincinnati (3-6) has lost two games in a row themselves with their 24-20 loss at Tennessee last week. This is the Bengals’ third straight game on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. This Cincinnati team is struggling on both sides of the football. Over their last four games, the Bengals are averaging just 227.8 total YPG. On defense, Cincy allowed the Titans to generate 180 rushing yards en route to their 416 total yards. The Bengals have ten failed to her the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Cincinnati was outrushed by 127 yards to Tennessee in that loss — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by at least 75 yards. 3rd Down defense has also been an issue for this team as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert on 55.1% of their 3rd downs. This is a terrible spot for a team falling in the wrong direction on the road for a third consecutive week. 25* NFL AFC Game of the Month on the Denver Broncos (470) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (452) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Chicago (3-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-16 upset loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bears have rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. They are getting better play out of rookie QB Mitch Trubisky who completed 21 of 35 passes for 297 yards and a TD pass against the Packers defense. In his last two starts at home in Soldier Field, Trubisky has averaged a 9.62 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt ratio along with a Passer Rating of 99.7. Chicago remains a tough team when playing at home as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also covered then point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games in the month of November, Chicago has covered the point spread 6 times.

Detroit (5-4) enters this game coming off their 38-24 victory over Cleveland last week. The Lions are then just 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit has not been very good against the Bears against which they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 encounters. QB Matthew Stafford is just 3-5 against the Bears in his eight starts in Chicago while passing for just nine TD passes but throwing 11 interceptions and getting sacked 21 times. To compound matters, the Lions are struggling to stop the run as they have allowed 136.8 rushing YPG in their last four games. Detroit will also be without defensive lineman Ziggy Ansah who is out with an injury for this game. Moving forward, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record. And in Detroit’s last 14 games played on grass, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 78-24-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL NFC North Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bears (452) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (332) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (331). Central Florida (9-0) is one of three undefeated teams left in the FBS after their 49-24 win over UConn last week. The stakes are high for this Knights team — not only do they want to run the table to win the American Athletic Conference but they would also like to represent the non-Power Five schools in one of the New Year’s Six Bowl games while still holding out for an outside chance to make the College Football Playoff if more of the big boys suffer losses. But this is a tough matchup for a team that might be a bit distracted right now. Head coach Scott Frost is subject of rumors regarding the open head coaching openings in Tennessee and Florida. This team also has a huge matchup on deck next Friday with South Florida. And, frankly, the weather will not do this Florida team in favors although the temperature looks to be in the low 50s for this game so it could be worse. As it is, Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of November. This team is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. The Knights failed to cover the massive 39-point line against the Huskies last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Sophomore QB McKenzie Milton did pass for 311 yards in the win over UConn — but UCF is then 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Knights run defense surrendered 212 yards in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game.

Temple (5-5) looks to build off their 35-24 win at Cincinnati last Friday night as a 3-point favorite. The Owls have then covered the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 52 games after a point spread victory. Temple rushed for 205 yards against the Bearcats defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The ground game has improved with the insertion of redshirt junior QB Frankie Nutile as the starter over the last three games. Nutile has made the Owls’ passing attack more potent — he completed 19 of 30 passes for 224 yards and a TD pass against Cincinnati while adding another 28 rushing yards with a TD on the ground. Temple is scoring 32.3 PPG over their last three games with Nutile as the starting QB while averaging a robust 442.7 total YPG. The Owls defense has also been solid this season as they are holding their conference opponents -86 YPG below their season average. Temple has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against conference opponents. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 20 of the last 28 games against teams with a winning record. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. Temple has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as the underdog — and this includes covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home as the dog. Lastly, the Owls have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the month of November. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Temple Owls (332) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (703) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (704). Miami (6-8) has lost two straight games after their 102-93 upset loss to the Wizards at home on Wednesday as a 2-point favorite. The Heat have bounced back to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. Miami has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when avenging an upset loss against their opponent. Now the Heat go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games. Miami has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And while the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 31 games against the Wizards, Miami is 22-8-1 ATS.

Washington (9-5) has not played (of course) since defeating the Heat on Wednesday — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 13 of the rest 18 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Wizards have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after a win on the road. And while this Washington team has won four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning at least four straight. And in their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. Lastly, the underdog has covered the point spread in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NBA Southeast Division Underdog of the Month with the Miami Heat (703) plus the points versus the Washington Wizards (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Houston (11-4) saw their six-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 1219-113 loss to Toronto despite being a 6.5-point favorite in that game. Chris Paul may take the court again for the Rockets which does not shape much into the rationale for this play (outside of helping this Houston team ensure they always have a potent point guard on the court since the original plan was to have one of these two stars on the court at all times this season). The Rockets shot just 41.8% from the field against the Raptors which was their worst shooting effort in their last seven games. Expect Houston to get back to their torrid shooting pace as they are scoring 119.2 PPG over their last five games while nailing 48% of their shots even with their poor performance on Tuesday during that span. But the Rockets’ style of play does allow the opposition to find easy shots on their own. Over their last five games, Houston is allowing 108.6 PPG while seeing these opponents make 48.5% of their shots. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Additionally, Houston has played a decisive 38 of their last 53 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. And in their last 24 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court, the Rockets have played 17 of these games Over the Total.

Phoenix (5-10) has lost six of their last seven games with their 100-93 loss to the Lakers on Monday. This Suns team likes to play at a fast-pace with their young team — but they don’t play much defense. Over their last five games, Phoenix is scoring 106.0 PPG — but they are surrendering 112.4 PPG. This team has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Suns have also played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road, Phoenix has played all 4 of these games Over the Total. Lastly, these two teams have played 6 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when facing each other in Phoenix. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Rockets (503) and the Phoenix Suns (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (312) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (311). Pittsburgh (7-2) has won four straight games with their 20-17 win at Indianapolis last week as a 10.5-point favorite. The Steelers are then 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on their home field at Heinz Field. Surprisingly, the Steelers have twice as many games on the road as they have at home where they will be playing just their fourth game this season. But Pittsburgh is outgaining their opponents by +132.3 net YPG at home this season based on a stout defense that is holding their opponents to only 243.0 total YPG. The Steelers boast an underrated defense that is allowing just 16.4 PPG along with only 284.4 total YPG which are both 2nd best in the league. Le’Veon Bell rushed for just 80 yards on 26 carries in that game as the Steelers managed just 88 yards in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. This team did flex their muscles on defense as they held the Titans to just 267 total yards of offense. Now Mike Tomlin’s team plays on a short week — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on Thursday Night Football.

Tennessee (6-3) has also won four straight games with their 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week as a 4.5-point favorite. But the Titans are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. Tennessee generated 416 yards of offense in that contest — but they are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans did allow 255 passing yards in that victory — but they are then 8-20-3 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Despite their 6-3 record, Tennessee is being outscored this season while only outgaining their opponents by +0.4 net YPG. They have played three of their last four games at home but now they go on the road where they are being outscored by -6.3 PPG while being outgained by -43.7 net YPG. The Titans offense has particularly struggled when away from home as they are scoring just 18.2 PPG on the road while averaging only 260.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road. And in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread 9 times. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (312) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (705) and the Milwaukee Bucks (706). Memphis (7-5) has lost four of their last six games with their 111-96 loss at Houston on Saturday. The Grizzlies have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Despite moving on from Zach Randolph and defensive wizard Tony Allen in the offseason who were the face of their “Grit-n-Grind” identity, this Memphis team still is playing great defense. Opposing teams are shooting just 42.6% from the field this season. Now this team stays on the road for their fifth straight contest — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road. The Under is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games when playing with one day of rest. Furthermore, the Under is 11-5-1 in the Grizzlies last 17 games when playing on the road. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 point range, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.

Milwaukee (6-6) has won two straight games with their 98-90 win over the Lakers on Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. The Bucks have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Milwaukee has also seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. The Bucks forced 21 Laker turnovers in that game which was ten more than they committed — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after committing at least ten fewer turnovers than their opponents in their last game. Milwaukee stays at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. Together, these team trends produces our specific 93-24-6 combined angle for this situation. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (705) and the Milwaukee Bucks (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (273) and the Denver Broncos (274). Denver (3-5) embarrassed themselves last week by losing in Philadelphia to the Eagles by a 51-23 score as a 7-point underdog. After surrendering over 50 points, expect this proud “No Fly Zone” Broncos’ defense to step up in this opportunity to make a statement against Tom Brayed and this Patriots’ offense. Denver has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up defeat — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Broncos surrendered 197 rushing yards in that game to the Eagles — but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Denver has bigger issues on offense with Brock Osweiler under center for an ineffective Trevor Siemian. The Broncos managed only 226 yards of offense last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

New England (6-2) comes off their bye week after their 31-13 win over the Chargers back on October 29th. The Patriots generated 401 yards of offense in that victory — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tom Brady tends to struggle when playing in the high altitude and thin air against the perennially tough Broncos defense. New England has played four times in Denver since January 19th of 2014 in those AFC Playoffs — and Mr. Brady has led an offense that is scoring just 18.5 PPG while averaging a mere 306.5 YPG on those contests. Not surprisingly, these two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Denver. Additionally, this Patriots defense is playing much better as well. After allowing 32 PPG over the first month of the season, New England has lost only 51 points over their last four games for a stingy 12.8 PPG scoring average. The Patriots have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road — and this includes playing five straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Lastly, in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Patriots have played 5 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (273) and the Denver Broncos (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (270) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (269). Atlanta (4-4) looks to bounce-back from their 20-17 upset loss on the road at Carolina last week as a 3-point underdog. The Falcons finally return home back to their new Mercedes-Benz Stadium after playing the last three games on the road. Julio Jones practiced this week and should be in better health for this team that really needs a signature win to rebuild their mojo. Despite last week’s loss to the Panthers, this Atlanta team is still in fine shape in the NFC playoff race with a 4-1 record against NFC opponents and five games remaining still against their NFC South rivals. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow NFC rivals. They need to get their ground game going after rushing for just 53 yards last week. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Falcons defense surrendered 201 rushing yards to Carolina — but they are then 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

Dallas (5-3) will be playing their first game without running back Ezekiel Elliott who finally begins serving his six-game suspension. I have no doubt that the other Cowboys players will step up in his absence. But it will be very difficult to replicate his productivity. In his 24 games with Dallas since turning pro, Elliott has averaged 24 touches per game for 130 yards from scrimmage while averaging one touchdown and seven first downs per game. Over their last five games, the Cowboys are converting 50% of their 3rd downs with Elliott playing a key role in that success. Not only is Elliott a good runner but he is a solid blocker against the pass rush while being a great receiver out of the backfield. Alfred Morris is a solid professional replacing him but he is simply not a receiving threat as he has caught only four balls wearing a Cowboys uniform after catching just six balls in his time with Dallas. Furthermore, the Cowboys have suffered a major injury with their All-Pro left tackle Tryon Smith out for this game. In general, bettors overreact to the impact of injured players (as I told clients worried about the injuries to the Ohio State linebackers yesterday morning). But injuries in the NFL are beginning to have more of an impact (and it is one of the reasons that I more often delay my final decisions on some of Sunday selections). The loss of Smith is devastating not only because he is an All-Pro but because his backup Chaz Green is kind of a disaster — and he is being asked to play left tackle which is a far cry from his normal position as a backup guard. This Cowboys’ team entered the year without the same depth on offensive line as they enjoyed last season. Dallas comes off a triumphant 28-17 win over Kansas City last week. The Cowboys (with Elliott) generated 375 yards against the Chiefs defense — but they are then 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Dallas allowed 255 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. 25* NFL NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (270) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (117) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (118). North Carolina (1-8) has lost six straight games in a disaster of a season with their 24-19 loss to Miami (FL) two Saturdays ago as a 21-point underdog. Larry Fedora’s team is a M*A*S*H unit this season with injuries on the offensive line particularly hurting this team from week-to-week. The Tar Heels rank 109th in the FBS by scoring 21.3 PPG while ranking 108th in the FBS any averaging 344.2 total YPG. On the road, North Carolina sees their yardage numbers drop to 310.0 total YPG. And over their last three games, the Tar Heels are scoring just 13.3 PPG while averaging 285.7 total YPG. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Tar Heels have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while UNC covered the three-touchdown spread against the Hurricanes, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The defense does seem to be playing better after limiting the Miami (FL) rushing attack to just 59 yards in that game. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 17.4 PPG while allowing more than 46 YPG below their season average. The Tar Heels have played 12 of the last 14 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. North Carolina has also played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Moving forward, the Tar Heels have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night, North Carolina has played all 8 games Under the Total.

Pittsburgh (4-5) takes the field again after their 31-14 win over Virginia as a 1-point favorite back on October 28th. The Panthers have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Pat Narduzzi’s team is fighting for bowl eligibility now — and the former Michigan State defensive coordinator is seeing improved play out of his young defense that returned just four starters from last season. Over their last three games, Pitt is allowing 22.0 PPG along with 377.0 total YPG which is 5.9 PPG and 43.7 YPG better than their seasonal averages. On offense, the Panthers have turned to sophomore Ben Dinucci at QB with the season-ending shoulder injury to USC graduate transfer Max Browne. Dinucci has been more of a game manager after passing just 18 times last week for 134 yards. Junior running back Darrin Hall has rushed for 365 yards over the last two games as he has become the focal point of this offense. It is 2 1/2 years into his tenure at Pitt but Narduzzi looks to finally be constructing this team into the types of teams he was an integral part with under head coach Mark Dantonio at Michigan State. But the team will be without a key piece to their offense with fullback George Aston out for this game with an ankle injury — his absence should not be underestimated. This team stays at home where the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games — and the Panthers have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Lastly, Pitt has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow ACC opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific 65-14-1 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (117) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (455) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (456). Tampa Bay (2-5) will be playing with desperation this afternoon after they were upset last week against another divisional rival at home against Carolina as a 1.5-point favorite. The Buccaneers have lost four in a row with critics blaming the old canard regarding this team lacking an “identity” on offense. A healthier Jameis Winston will help as he has been banged up over the last few weeks. The good news is that Winston has practiced more this week than he has since getting injured and he claims he is feeling better. Tampa Bay has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Tampa Bay also needs to get their running game going with Doug Martin back from his suspension. The Bucs have not rushed for more than 90 yards in each of their last four contests — and they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in at least three straight games. Tampa Bay is 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games in the month of November. The Buccaneers are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 30 road games after losing five or six of their last seven contests, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of these contests.

25* NFC South Game of the Month with Tampa Bay plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (377) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (378). Vanderbilt (3-5) has lost five straight games with their 34-27 loss at South Carolina last Saturday. The Commodores have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Now Vanderbilt returns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Gone are the salad days of September when this team went into their meeting with Alabama with the best statistical defense in the nation. Over their last three games, the Commodores have given up 45.3 PPG along with 512.7 total YPG. Vandy allowed 212 rushing yards to the Gamecocks last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The Commodores’ offense has kicked into another gear with junior QB Kyle Shurmur completing 27 of 49 passes for 333 yards and 3 TDs against South Carolina. This team is scoring 25.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging 364.3 total YPG which is well above their 314.9 total YPG seasonal average.

Western Kentucky (5-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 42-28 loss at Florida Atlantic as a 6.5-point underdog. The Hilltoppers have then played 13 of the last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Western Kentucky allowed 461 yards in that contest — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Hilltoppers have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This team has cranked things up on offense as they are scoring 36.0 PPG over their last three games while totaling 504.3 total YPG over that span. Western Kentucky has needed this increased production on offense because they are allowing 29.0 PPG over their last three games while allowing 406.0 YPG over that span which is 37 YPG more than their seasonal average. Moving forward, the Hilltoppers have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 53-14 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (377) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (317) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (318). Marshall (6-2) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 41-30 loss to Florida International despite being a 14.5-point favorite. The Thundering Herd suffered from a -3 net turnover margin in that game which included a 12-yard interception return for a touchdown by the Golden Panthers. Those turnovers overwhelmed the Thundering Herd’s 29 to 21 first down margin as well as their +104 net yardage advantage (505 yards to 401 yards) in that game. Now an underdog on the road, look for Marshall to bounce-back with a big effort. The Thundering Herd are 3-1-1 ATS after a double-digit win at home — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Marshall has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four of their last five contests. Additionally, the Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. They are outgaining their Conference USA opponents by +141 net YPG which is a better mark than the Owls +125 net YPG mark in conference play.

Florida Atlantic (5-3) enters this game coming off their 42-28 win at Western Kentucky last Saturday. The Owls benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last night — with two of those turnovers resulting into short drives of 8-yard and 18-yard touchdown drives. FAU lost the first down battle by a 32 to 21 margin while being out-gained in yardage in that contest. Now the Owls return home where they have not retained much of a home field advantage. FAU is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in eight of their last nine home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points as the favorite. Furthermore, the Owls have played three straight games Over the Total after last week’s game which finished above the 67.5 number. FAU has then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an Over — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight games that finished Over the Total. 25* CFB Friday CBS-Sports Network Game of the Year with the Marshall Thundering Herd (317) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (307) and the New York Jets (308). New York (3-5) looks to snap a three-game losing streak tonight after they lost by a 25-20 score at home versus Atlanta on Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. The Jets managed only 43 rushing yards in that game — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. New York was outrushed by 97 yards in that contest — and they have then played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after being out rushed by at least 75 yards. And while the Falcons outgained them by 107 net yards, the Jets have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards. New York allowed 386 yards to Atlanta in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Jets do play better defense at home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 PPG along with 324.2 total YPG which is 5 points fewer along with -37.2 net YPG lower than their seasonal averages. This shapes up to be low scoring game with both teams on a short week and when considering that New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total.

Buffalo (5-2) has won four of their last five games with their 34-14 win over the Raiders last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Bills are playing outstanding defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by holding opponents to just 16.4 PPG led by a run defense that also ranks 3rd in the league by limiting opponents to just 80.1 rushing YPG. Defense travels which helps explain why Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. Lastly, in their last 7 appearances on Thursday Night Football, the Bills have played 5 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (307) and the New York Jets (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Los Angeles (114-62) evened this series at 3-3 last night with their 3-1 victory over the Astros to force a climactic Game Seven tonight. I have been line watching again this morning with the Dodgers opening as a money-line favorite in the -145 range with that then being bet up to the -155 to -160 range as of this writing. I see Los Angeles as a slight favorite in this game given home field advantage — but when taking the Astros plus the +1.5 Run-Line is around the same price as taking the Dodgers straight-up, then this becomes an easy Run-Line play for me with this Houston team that has a good chance of winning this game outright. Manager Dave Roberts really has little choice than give the ball to Darkish to start this game despite his getting shelled in Game Three of this series where he allowed four runs and six hits in just 1 2/3 innings of work. Darvish is at the epicenter of Slick Ball Gate with him being very dependent on a slider that was not dropping as much as he usually coaxes out of the baseball when getting hammered last Friday night. Even if the Slick Ball issues are rationalizations for poor pitching performances (I think it is real because I give credence to testimony from the likes of Justin Verlander and others), the fact is that the feel of the ball is now in Darvish’s head which will likely have a negative impact on his efforts tonight. As it is, Darkish has not been as effective at home as on the road this year. For the regular season between the Dodgers and Rangers, the right-hander has a 10-12 record with a 3.86 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. At home during the regular season, Darkish had a 5.25 ERA with a .246 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 2.44 ERA and .206 opponent’s batting average on the road. With the Dodgers during the regular season, Darkish had a 4.84 ERA in four starts with a 1.21 WHIP and .250 opponent’s batting average as opposed to his 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent’s batting average in five starts. This will be Darvish’s first start at home for the Dodgers in this postseason — and his teams have lost 10 of their last 16 games when he is making the start at home. For his career, Darkish has a subpar 4.74 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work in the playoffs. I do expect a short leash to be on Darkish tonight with Alex Wood the first likely candidate to replace him being on three days rest from a great start on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will certainly take the mound as well — but he has never pitched well on short rest and is coming off that home outing where he allowed six earned runs. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 4.07 ERA in their last seven games. Finally, while I did not put too much weight in the Dodgers’ eleven-game losing streak in August, I did think it could impact their confidence in pressure-filled moments in these playoffs. Los Angeles blew leads in Game Two and Game Five of this series. Now in front of their home fans after staving off elimination last night by defeating Verlander, the Dodgers may have celebrated a day early. They will likely experience some very anxious moments tonight in the face of failing in this moment where they are now expected to win — as evidenced by this moving money-line.

Houston (111-68) is certainly disappointed in blowing their chance to win the World Series with Justin Verlander on the mound last night — but they get a second chance with a blank slate tonight with the knowledge that they came back to win Game Two of this series in LA. The Astros have proven themselves resilient by winning 44 of their last 66 games after a loss. Houston has also won 16 of their last 21 road games after failing to score more than one run in their last game. They give the ball to Lance McCullers who is so ready for this moment that he began warming up last night after the game to get himself acclimated for his moment. The right-hander has always oozed with talent — his biggest problem has been lowering his walk rate to help harness his enormous potential. McCullers has been outstanding in these playoffs by posting a 1-0 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings of work. It was a telling moment when after he earned the four-inning save in Game Seven against the Yankees, manager A.J. Hinch moved him up in the rotation ahead of Charlie Morton who has also pitched quite well this postseason. This Astros team can very well win this game outright. Like Game Five of this wild series, lets happily buy the insurance of the +1.5 Run-Line which is an undervalued commodity in baseball when we are afforded the opportunity to invest at -150 or lower. 25* MLB World Series Game Seven A-List Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (913) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (914) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers and Yu Darvish. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) versus the Houston Astros (911) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Houston (111-67) showed plenty of resolve to rally from an early four-run deficit and kept fighting last night to pull out an epic 13-12 victory in extra innings. Now they are on the brink of winning this World Series with their ace Verlander on the hill who has incredible numbers in potential close out games in the playoffs. That has helped make this game a virtual toss up with this — and created outstanding value on the Dodgers. Verlander showed he was hittable in Game Two of this series when he allowed three runs in 6 innings of work where he left the game with the Astros trailing. Two different left-handed batters hit home runs off him. And only one of Verlander’s seventeen sliders that he threw in that outing coaxed a swing-and-miss from a Dodgers’ batter. Verlander should be good but I do not think he will be unhittable. And manager A.J. Finch lacks reliable alternatives in his bullpen that has a 7.58 ERA in this World Series. Finch has benched his closer Ken Giles from complete ineffectiveness. Game Seven will be a different story with Dallas Kuechel and every other starting pitcher available to pitch — but I do not like the pitching situation for the Astros on Tuesday after Verlander at all. Keep in mind that Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road in these playoffs. And in their last 9 trips to Los Angeles, they have lost 7 of their games with the Dodgers.

Los Angeles (113-62) returns home where they have won 52 of their last 71 games. The Dodgers have also won 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Furthermore, Los Angeles has won 40 of their last 54 games after scoring at least five runs. And in their last 27 games after an off day, the Dodgers have won 21 of these contests. They give the ball to Rich Hill who out-pitched Verlander in Game Two by allowing only one earned run while striking out seven batters in that outing. I think Hill being a journeyman for so long before he found greatness late in his career will help his perspective in handling the pressure of this moment. He has a 2.77 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 13 innings with 19Ks in this postseason. Hill was also outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and .179 opponent’s batting average in fourteen starts. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 games at home with Hill on the mound. 25* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (912) versus the Houston Astros (911) listing both starting pitchers Rich Hill and Justin Verlander. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (273) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Denver (3-3) looks to get back to their winning ways tonight in an important divisional game. Fifteen days ago, the Broncos were generally considered one of the top five teams in the NFL. But after their 23-10 loss to the Giants for Sunday Night Football, Denver followed that up with a listless 21-0 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Look for this team to rebound with one of their strongest efforts of the season. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns to a divisional rival. And in their last 25 games after a straight-up loss, the Broncos have covered the point spread 17 times. Denver has certainly spent time on the offensive side of the football after being shut out last week. Defense is not a problem as this team leads the NFL by holding their opponents to just 258.1 total YPG which is the best mark in the league. This defense is also very familiar with Andy Reid, Alex Smith and this Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Kansas City. Furthermore, Denver has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog.

Kansas City (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 31-30 loss in Oakland as a 1-point favorite for last week’s Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs surrendered 505 yards of offense to the Raiders in that game as they continued to struggle and defense with an aging group that really misses Eric Berry who suffered a season-ending Achilles’ injury. Kansas City is 30th in the league by allowing 396.3 total YPG — and this porous defense has actually made the Chiefs get outgained by -3.9 net YPG which betrays their winning record. Kansas City is winning games in large measure because they are not turning the ball over - in fact, they have not committed a single turnover since their first play of the season where Kareem Hunt fumbled the football in New England. That is simply not sustainable and helps to make the Chiefs an unreliable favorite laying around a touchdown against a desperate divisional rival. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games are allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Lastly, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (273) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (701) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (702). San Antonio (4-2) has lost two straight games after their upset 97-94 loss at Indiana yesterday. The Spurs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a loss by 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by just 3 points on the road. Furthermore, San Antonio has covered the point spread in a decisive 208 of their last 354 games after an upset loss — so head coach Gregg Popovich has proven success in getting his team to get back to business after an upset loss. His teams have covered the point spread in 45 of their last 71 games in the first-half of the season. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when playing without rest in a second straight road game. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 190-199.5 point range. The team is without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard right now with both dealing with quad injuries — but the Spurs’ depth keeps them a reliable team during the grind of the regular season.

Boston (4-2) has won four straight games with their 96-90 win in Miami on Saturday as a 1-point favorite. I am not surprised by the Celtics good start after most of the NBA punditry immediately discounted them after Gordon Hayward suffered his season-ending injury in the first game of the season. But this is also a team that is just 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 games when hosting San Antonio. This Boston team looks ripe for a letdown in this spot. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after winning at least three straight games but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games winning at least four straight games. And in their last 5 games on their home court, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month on the San Antonio Spurs (701) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (271) and the Detroit Lions (272). Detroit (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 52-38 loss in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit has also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total after a game where they surrendered at least 30 points. The Lions did pass for 312 yards in that loss — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Detroit is struggling to getting a credible ground game going as they have not rushed for more than 97 yards in four straight games. The Lions have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 4 straight games Under the Total after their bye week. With Golden Tate still not 100%, this Lions defense might struggle to reach the 298.0 total YPG they are averaging this season which is just 26th in the NFL.

Pittsburgh (5-2) has won two straight games with their 29-14 win over Cincinnati last week. The Steelers have then played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Pittsburgh has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last contest. The Steel Curtain has been flexing their muscles so far this season by holding teams to just 16.3 PPG while allowing only 258.7 total YPG which are 3rd and 2nd best in the NFL respectively. The Steelers did generate 420 yards against the Bengals defense last week — but the Under is then 13-2-1 in their last 16 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh has also played 11 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Lastly, in their last 26 games in the month of October, the Steelers have played 20 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (271) and the Detroit Lions (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Astros (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. I had been debating what my side play would be in this potential Game Five situation since the end of Game One — and this internal conversation continued after the Dodgers’ 6-2 victory to even this series at 2-2 and through my early morning finishing up my early NFL plays for the day. I was considering this situation a toss up. After a short break to help focus my attention on this play, it (finally) hit me that the strong value play with this game was with the Astros plus the +1.5 Run-Line which is priced reasonably (as I define as no higher than -150) given the high value that is being placed on Kershaw. The left-hander was outstanding in Game One of this series and has been quite good all postseasn. But Kershaw does have that 4.21 ERA in 113 1/3 innings in the playoffs — and this will be just his second start in these playoffs away from home. Kershaw was not been quite as effective on the road in the regular season where he had a 0.98 WHIP and .219 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts as compared to his 0.92 WHIP and .206 opponent’s batting average in nineteen starts at home. He is facing an Astros team that has won 23 of their last 31 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Dodgers have still lost 4 of their last 6 road games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. And in their last 38 road games after a win by at least four runs, Los Angeles has lost 22 of these games.

Houston (110-67) has rebounded to win 44 of their last 64 games after a loss. The Astros have also won 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 48 games after a loss by at least four runs, Houston ash won 34 of these games. The Astros managed only two base hits last night — but they have then won 21 of their last 28 games after failing to scratch out more than four hits in their last game. This remains a team that has won 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have won 7 of their last 8 playoff games at home. They counter with Dallas Keuchel who will be looking to avenge his Game One loss to Kershaw. For the season, the left-hander had a 14-5 record with a 2.90 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP this season. Keuchel was outstanding at home during the regular season where he had a 2.26 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and .187 opponent’s batting average in eleven starts as compared to his 3.53 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts on the road. In his 38 innings in his career in the playoffs, Keuchel has a 2.84 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. The Astros have won 17 of their last 23 home games with Keuchel pitching against a team with a winning record. Furthermore, the Dodgers have lost 21 of their last 31 road games in Interleague play (with a Designated Hitter) against a left-handed starting pitcher. Lastly, because the Astros have a slugging percentage of .461, they are supported by a historical angle specific to the Run-Line that has been 83% effective since 1997. Kershaw has not issued a walk in either of his last two starts — but American League home underdogs with a slugging percentage of .450 or higher facing a starting pitcher who has not issued a base-on-balls in at least two straight starts have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line (when then priced in the -130 to +110 price range) in 38 of the last 46 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB World Series Game Five A-List Run-Line Special with the Houston Astros (910) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (909) listing both starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (267) and the Seattle Seahawks (268). Houston (3-3) has quickly transformed from a defensive-oriented low-scoring team to a high-flying offensive juggernaut that has to outscore their opponents. Season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus on defense along with the emergence of rookie QB Deshaun Watson has been the reasons for this transformation for Bill O’Brien’s team. Over his last three games coinciding with the return of Will Fuller at wide receiver, Watson has throw 12 TD passes with just two interceptions for a Passer Rating of 117. During that span, Watson is being sacked only once in ever 20 pass attempts — and he received a big boost this week when Houston’s star left tackle Duane Brown ended his holdout. Brown should be on the field this afternoon blocking for Watson and this rushing attack that is 3rd in the NFL by averaging 137.7 rushing YPG. The Texans come off their bye week after their 33-17 win over the Browns two weeks ago as a 7.5-point favorite. Houston has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Texans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game, Houston has played 4 of these games Over the Total. Moving forward, the Texans have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 21 games in the month of October, Houston has played 16 of these games Over the Total.

Seattle (4-2) has won three straight games after their 24-7 win in New York against the Giants last week. The Seahawks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at last two touchdowns. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 14 or fewer points in their last game. Additionally, while the Seahawks held the Giants to only 146 passing yards in that game, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Seattle scored only a field goal in the first half of that game last week — but they have then played a decisive 55 of their last 83 games Over the Total after a game where they did not score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Lastly, the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a home favorite not laying more than 7 points. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (267) and the Seattle Seahawks (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (259) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (260). The team with the best record in the league faces off against the team that is tied for the worst record in the NFL — and the price is high for bettors to take this Philadelphia team (6-1) coming off a flashy win in front of a national audience on Monday with their 34-24 win over Washington. Let this line continue to the 13 or perhaps even the 14 point range if you can before kickoff. The Eagles suffered two devastating injuries with left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffering season-ending injuries in that game with the Skins — and it will be difficult to replace those two players that played such a vital role in the foundation of their offensive line and front seven on defense. QB Carson Wentz has been impressive — but it is a warning sign that he led the team in rushing on Monday with his 63 yards on eight attempts. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing on Monday Night Football. Philly does stay at home this week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record overall, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.

San Francisco (0-7) suffered their worst loss of the season last week with their 40-10 loss at home to Dallas as a 6.5-point underdog. If there was a silver lining in that loss for head coach Mike Shanahan, it is that he certainly had the attention of his team this week in practice. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. San Francisco may still be winless but they have very competitive in most of their games. In their previous five games before last week, they lost by just a combined 13 points. Five net close losses of eight points or less is brutal — and, ironically, it was the Eagles 0-6 record in games decided by one scoring possession last season that made some pundits so bullish on them this year. The offense looks a bit crisper under rookie QB C.J. Beathard who completed 22 of 38 passes for 235 yards while adding 30 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. The learning curve is sharp for the former Iowa QB right now. The 49ers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC opponents, San Francisco has covered the point spread 4 times. 25* NFL NFC Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (259) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (251) and the Cleveland Browns (252). Cleveland (0-7) has already had a tumultuous trip to London this week when they were awoken by a late night alarm at their hotel. The Browns remained winless this season with their 12-9 loss in overtime to Tennessee last Sunday. Cleveland has then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Cleveland defense is good — they rank 9th in the league by allowing only 304.7 total YPG. But the offense is a mess as they rank 31st in the NFL by scoring 14.7 PPG. Rookie QB Deshone Kizer is clearly not ready for the league as he is struggling mightily with NFL defenses. His job just became much worse as well with the season ending injury to the rock on the Cleveland offensive line in Joe Thomas at left tackle. With Thomas out, expect the Browns to run the ball even more which will burn time off the clock. Cleveland has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing five or six of their last seven games Under the Total.

Minnesota (5-2) has won four of their last five games with their 24-16 win over Baltimore as a 5.5-point favorite last week. The Vikings have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up victory. Additionally, while Minnesota gained 357 yards against the Baltimore defense, they have then seen the Under go 17-7-1 in their last 25 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road after a victory, the Vikings have played all 6 games Under the Total. Minnesota is 4th in the NFL with a defense that allows just 284.0 total YPG. This game should be well in hand which means they will run the football a lot to play this game conservatively while respecting the Cleveland defense. Lastly, the Browns have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. 25* NFL London Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (251) and the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (206) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (205). Penn State (7-0) avenged an embarrassing 39-point loss to Michigan last Saturday night in their “white-out” game with ESPN Game Day with their 42-13 victory over the Wolverines. Head coach James Franklin and the entire Nittany Lions’ nation has been the toast of the town with that victory signaling the program’s return from disgrace after the Jerry Sandusky travesty. We had Penn State in a big play in that game — and that big win sets up a huge emotional letdown “play-against” situation this week as they travel to Columbus for an even bigger showdown. There is plenty of technical support for this expected letdown. The Nittany Lions have been favored by at least 7.5-points in three straight games — and their 29-point win against Michigan was the closest of those three victories. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after being a favorite of at least 7 points in three straight games. And in their last 11 games after generating at least three straight wins by at least three touchdowns. Frankly, this Penn State team has been a bit overrated in my view since their fluke win over the Buckeyes last October — more on that in a moment. They impressed many with their loss in the Rose Bowl team to a USC team with three losses this season. They barely survived their game in Iowa City to begin the month where a late touchdown eked out a 21-19 win against an Hawkeyes team that also now has three losses. And then Saquon Barkley and company managed to rush for just 39 yards in their next game against Indiana before earning only 95 rushing yards on 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry the next week against Northwestern. They face a dramatic step in quality against this Buckeyes defensive line this week. Penn State is just 4-11-2 ATS when playing on field turf that accentuates their opponent’s speed. The Nittany Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. And in their last 11 trips to Columbus to face the Buckeyes, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

Ohio State (6-1) has had this game circled for as long as I have when considering that they outgained the Nittany Lions by 97 yards while winning the first down battle by a 19 to 13 margin — and that game was played in College Station. The Buckeyes lost their 21-17 lead with less than 5 minutes to go when they blocked an Ohio State field goal attempt which they returned for a 60-yard touchdown to steal that game. After the Buckeyes loss to Oklahoma earlier this season, this is now a must-win game for Ohio State to keep their National Championship Playoff hopes alive. Despite that loss, the Buckeyes are outgaining their opponents by +272 net YPG while the Nittany Lions are outscoring their opponents by 92 YPG less with their +180 net YPG clip. Ohio State has had an extra week off to rest and prepare for this showdown after their 56-14 blowout win at Nebraska as a 23.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. This team has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a bye week. Furthermore, you will at some point here the stat that Urban Meyer boasts a 29-4 straight-up record as a head coach after a bye week — and that includes winning twenty straight contests with an extra week to prepare. His staff’s benefit of spending an extra second week scheming against a Penn State team that was completely focused on Michigan last week (did Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead use all his best tricks last week?) gives them a distinct advantage. Finally, the offensive struggles this team was experiencing earlier in the season seems to have resolved under their first-year Offensive Coordinator Kevin Wilson. Freshman running back J.K. Dobbins has become the bell-cow running back while QB J.T. Barrett has found his niche in this offense. Against the Cornhuskers, Barrett completed 27 of his 33 passes for 325 yards with 5 TD passes (no picks) while adding another 48 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (206) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (123) and the Akron Zips (124). Buffalo (3-5) will be starting a true freshman at QB in Kyle Vantrease with both Drew Anderson and Tyree Jackson declared out for this game. Vantrease completed just 17 of 41 passes last week for 202 yards in the Bulls’ 24-14 loss at Miami (OH) as a 3-point underdog. Buffalo is playing all of their opponents tough with three of their losses by 4 points or less and all five of their defeats being within 10 points — so expect a conservative game plan in this contest with a freshman QB playing in a hostile environment. As it is, the Bulls have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points, the Bulls have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Moving forward, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October.

Akron (4-4) enters this game coming off a 48-21 loss at Toledo last Saturday as a 15.5-point underdog. The Zips have then played 25 of their last 34 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Additionally, Akron has played 36 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than 20 points. This Zips offense ranks 116th in the FBS by totaling a mere 326.6 total YPG. And while they did allowing 48 points to the Rockets, they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Moving forward, Akron returns home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total. The Zips have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 13 games played on field turf, Akron has played 12 of these games Under the Total. Together, these team trends produce our specific 163-46 combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (123) and the Akron Zips (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Los Angeles (112-60) evened this series at 1-1 on Wednesday with their 7-6 win in extra innings in what became a game for the ages in World Series history. The Dodgers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after an off day. Now they go on the road where the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games away from home. They give the ball to Darvish who is 10-12 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this season. The right-hander was been more effective on the road during the regular season where he had a 2.44 ERA with a .206 opponent’s batting average as compared to his 5.25 ERA along with a .246 opponent’s batting average at home with Texas and then the Dodgers after being traded to LA. The right-hander has been outstanding in this postseason where he has a 2–0 record with a 1.59 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in two starts. Darvish’s teams have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 125 price-range. He faces an Astros team that is hitting just .201 over their last seven games with a .280 On-Base Percentage and .638 OPS over that span. Houston has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.

Houston (109-66) has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home in Minute Maid Park. The Astros have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when hosting the Dodgers. It is telling that manager A.J. Hinch has decided to tap Lance McCullers over Charlie Morton who was the starter in Game Seven of the ALCS against the Yankees last Saturday. McCullers pitched four scoreless innings in that game to earn the save while allowing only one hit and no earned runs. During the regular season, McCullers was 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander was more effective at home where he owned a 3.04 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and .222 opponent’s batting average in nine starts as compared to his 5.14 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and .269 opponent’s batting average in thirteen starts on the road. The Astros have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with McCullers the starting pitcher with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. McCullers has been money this postseason given his 2.08 ERA along with an 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings that includes two starts along with that bullpen stint last week. He faces a Dodgers’ team that its hitting just .233 over their last seven games. Lastly, the Under is 5-0-1 in Los Angeles’ last 6 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB Playoffs Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (905) and the Houston Astros (906) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Lance McCullers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (111) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (112). Florida State (2-4) saw their tough luck season continue last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Louisville last Saturday as 6-point favorites. After their opening 24-7 loss to Alabama when sophomore Deondre Francois suffered his season-ending knee injury, the Seminoles have lost three more games to NC State, Miami (FL) and then to the Cardinals with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson by a combined 13 points. Jimbo Fisher’s team has probably endured the most difficult schedule in the nation. Now with four losses on the season with challenging road games at Clemson and Florida still on the docket, the Seminoles do not have much more margin of error just to become bowl eligible. Expect a big effort from this team in this critical game. Florida State is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing four or five of their last six games. And while Florida State allowed 293 rushing yards to the Cardinals, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. One of the problems for this team is not having much luck in creating turnovers. The Seminoles have forced only one turnover in each of their last three games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after three straight games when they failed to force more than one turnover in their last game. Florida State is playing outstanding defense still as they are holding their opponents 130 net YPG below their season average for the season. Moving forward, the Seminoles are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. And in their last 5 Friday night games, the Seminoles have covered the point spread all 5 times.

Boston College (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 41-10 upset win at Virginia last week as a 7-point underdog. The Eagles have scored two straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a victory by at least 20 points. BC did benefit from a +3 net turnover margin in that game. But now they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games as the underdog. And in their last 5 appearances for a Friday night game, Boston College has failed to cover the point spread in all 5 of these contests. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (111) minus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.