The 5-2 Dodgers are starting to hit better and are winning a few games.  The Rockies are struggling at 3-7.  The Rockies Anderson had a  surprisingly strong May, but based on his track record, you had to believe that it wasn't going to last.  Sure enough in his last two starts, he tumbled down the stairs, giving up 16 runs in 5+ innings.  He has allowed 10 dingers this month, not a good look for a Rockies pitcher.  The Colorado bullpen has been very poor (7.00 ERA) lately, so don't look for solace there. 

One thing the Dodgers can do is hit the long ball. They will start rookie Sheehan, who has started his career in a very positive way.  It is a small sample size so far but we will see how he fares in Coors Field today.  The Dodgers' bull pen is not the dominant one of old, but at leAst is better than  the Rockies'.  I'm wagering on Sheehan and the long ball today.  Take the Dodgers to win on the run line at - i 1/2.

The Mets, just 7-17 in June, face the light-hitting Brewers for the series tie-breaker.  With Scherzer on the mound, the Mets are a large favorite.  Scherzer's last two starts have been vintage Max, but he has been uneven this season.  Houser starts for the Brewers.  he has started just two games in June, for a total, including relief efforts, of just 16 innings this month.  While Houser hasn't pitched poorly, I still think that we can expect to see plenty of the Brewers' bullpen. Relief pitching has been their forte this season and especially lately.  Neither team is hitting well, 25th and 26th in OPS in recent days.  The Mets' bullpen is still struggling with an ERA over 5.00 of late.
Considering the Mets very humble results lately I don't really buy today's odds.  The Brewers have good success vs right-handed pitching.  The Mets are very poor against teams above .500.  Take the Brew crew on the run line at +1.5. 9 *!

The probable starters for this one are both solid pitchers.  Ryan for the Twins is coming off a complete game shutout, even though his two outings before that were pretty bad.  He averages 6 IP/start this season, so against a hard hitting Braves lineup it should be 6 or less.  If that’s the case his bullpen has not been great the last 10. 

On the mound for the Braves, probable starter Elder has been even more solid than Ryan.  He pitched 7 shutout innings his last outing and gave up only 1 earned run in the start before that.  His bullpen has been much stronger the last 10 games so when he gets pulled he will have that support.

In their last 15 days of baseball the Braves lead the majors in avg. and OPS while the Twins are 22nd in both statistics over the same period.  The Twins batters also have the 2nd worst strikeout rate in the majors.  On top of that the Braves have average 8.66 R/9 vs. RHP this season while the Twins have averaged 4.01 R/9 against righties.  In their last 7 the Braves have averaged 8.1 runs/game while the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs/game.  Those two sets of stats alone easily make the spread.  It seems pretty clear to pick the Braves to cover the spread.

Everyone is high on the Argos after their 2022 Grey Cup win and week 2 victory over the TigerCats.  But they were not dominant, especially in the air.  The Elks improved defence held powerhouse BC to 22 points and QB Harris and Saskatchewan’s passing attack to 17 points.  They haven’t given up a rush TD yet and that is the only way the Argos got TDs in their first game. 

The Elks haven’t’ won at home in a long time but they are 8-2 in their L10 at home vs. the Argos and 7-3 overall in their L10 vs. the Argos.  The Argos are missing their top 2 receivers for this game and their starting C Ciraco is a game time decision.  Chad Kelly hasn’t proven himself yet; only one full game and relief in the Grey Cup last year. 

Everyone is focused on the struggles of Elks’ QB Cornelius.  He hasn’t been impressive, that’s for sure but the Argos will be missing monster DL Oakman and LB Muamba so the Elks’ iffy O-line might have a bit of a chance to help Cornelius out a little more. 

6.5 is a lot of points to give the Elks on this one.  I think they have a good chance to make use of those points and keep it close.  Pick the Elks on this one.

After years at or near the top the Stampeders were humbled last season and are still moving in a downward direction.  Hard to believe they are favored over the Roughriders who had some bad luck with illness and injury last year.  The brothers Dickenson are going to do battle with the Roughriders’, Craig in a much more precarious situation than Dave has been after years of success with the Stamps.  This desperation has filtered down into Craig’s Roughriders who are playing like there is no tomorrow. 

With veteran QB Harris at the helm the Roughriders had passing success against the Bombers last week that even outstripped what BC did in their surprising domination of the Bombers this week.  Meanwhile new starter Maier for the Stamps was humbled against BC and only had modest success against the lowly Redblacks last week.

Roughriders’ all-stars Moncrief(LB) and Marshall(CB) return this week as do starters Hawkins(LT) and Kelly(OL).  These upgrades to the O-line should allow Harris to do even more of his magic. 

Maier and the Stamps will be missing their top WR Begleton as well as top RB Carey and starting LT Coker is still out.  As Maier still really hasn’t found his footing he could struggle.

ATS the Stamps are 2-8 over the last 10 after a win and 7-20 in their last 27 home games.  Hard to believe the Stamps are so heavily favored.  Take the points on offer to the Roughriders as they should win going away.

The A's and Guardians have played each other five times this season and four of those games were decided by one run.  Neither team hits lefties especially well, and we will see a pair of young southpaws meeting up in Cleveland today.  Sears is off a bit of a rougher start but has otherwise been very solid for the A's through May and June.  In his last seven starts he has allowed more than two runs just the once while averaging over five innings a start.  Cleveland's left hander Logan Allen started his rookie season very well but has struggled badly in his last two starts.  His June ERA is an unimpressive 7.29.  The bullpen was a weak spot for the A's but has been much better of late.  The Guardians have very reliable relief pitching. 

The A's have lost seven in a row, but six of those again have been by one run.  They have not been quite the pushovers they were for much of the season.  Sears is likely the A's best chance for an outright win, and Allen's recent starts have been a concern.  I am wagering on Oakland to at least keep this game close, although a victory would not surprise me.  Take the A's +1 1/2.

Everything seems to be tilting towards the Cubs on this one.  Stroman and the Cubs are on streaks and Oviedo and the Pirates are not.  Stroman and the Cubs just beat Oviedo and the Pirates 7-2 on June 15th.  Oviedo only lasted 4.1 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. 

The Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 3.00 in their last 10.  The Pirates bullpen has been atrocious in their last 10 with an ERA of 9.51 and a WHIP of 2.01. 

At a club level the Cubs scored an average of 6.7 runs in their last 7 while the Pirates have struggled with only 2.7 runs/game.  In their last 7 the Pirates have lost by an average of 4.86 runs.  The Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. the Pirates and 4-1 in their last 5 in Pittsburgh.  Overall recently the Cubs are 7-3 while the Pirates are 2-8.  All of these add up to an evening where the Cubs cover the spread and then some. 

Both of the probable starters, Lynch for the Royals and Lorenzen for the Tigers have had their struggles lately but Lynch has been really up against it.  Royals are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts.  His team is on a 1-4 slide while the Tigers are on a 4-1 streak.  The Tigers have averaged 6 runs/9 against LHPs while the Royals have averaged only 3.51 runs/9 vs. RHP. If Lynch struggles early his bullpen has had a 4.71 ERA in their L10.  The Tigers’ bullpen has had a 3.10 ERA.

When it comes to hitting the Tigers have been hot lately with the 6th best OPS in their L7 while the Royals are mired down near the bottom of the majors.  All this adds up to a bucketful of stats that have the Tigers better than 1.5 runs better than the Royals.  These are reasons to expect the Tigers to cover the spread.

Cease has looked back to normal in his last two games, a relief for the White Sox. The Sox have also looked better, winning six of their last ten, although they have struggled recently.  The Dodgers have slowed down in recent games, and are now below .500 L10.  Grove (8.28 ERA) starts on Thursday. He has not impressed this season, giving up 8 ER in 9 innings in his last 2 starts.  His ERA skyrockets after the third inning.  An early exit is unlikely as the Dodgers' bullpen is struggling in recent games, not surprising considering their long list of pitchers on the IL.  The White Sox bullpen has been excellent with an ERA of 2.25 L10 games. I expect the White Sox to show some offense against Grove.  Take the underdog to win or at least keep it close on the road.

The Twins are at home to the 1-9 Tigers today.  They have won four of five games, stand third in runs allowed, and have a fine starter on the mound.  Sonny Gray has yet to give up more than three runs  in thirteen starts this year.  He is particularly tough at home (1.71 ERA) and has given up just one home run to date.  Not that Detroit is know for the long ball.  They are dead last in runs scored this year.  They also have pitching woes, with a combined ERA of 5.94 in their last ten games.

The Tigers lost both ends of a double header on Wednesday.  Add in travel, and you have a very tired team.  Today's Tigers starter lefty Matthew Boyd (5.55 ERA) has had a few good starts but most of them have been similar to his last one, giving up five runs over five innings.  The Twins are heavily and legitimately favored.  While not the hottest offense, they are a very good home team.  I believe they will beat up a demoralized Tigers team today.  Take Minnesota on the run line at -1 1/2.  9 stars!

Probable pitcher Ober is working on a solid season.  His 2.61 ERA and .97 WHIP are well earned.  He has been in some very low scoring pitching duels.  14 of his last 15 starts have been under totals.  The Brewers probable pitcher Rea is a step below with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.  3 of his last 15 starts have seen him leave in the 3rd inning and 6 have been over totals. 

Reas’ bullpen has struggled over the last 10 games with a 6.25 ERA while the Twins’ bullpen has had an ERA of 2.93.  At home the Twins’ bullpen has a 2.93 ERA while the Brewers’ bullpen has a 4.42 ERA on the road.  All this leads to a lot of innings of higher scoring for the Twins.  Expect them to win and cover the spread of -1.5.

Vegas are heavy favorites and deservedly so.  Unless some unlikely magic happens this should be the end of the road for the scrappy Panthers.  Bobrovsky has been shown to be mortal in this series with a 3.47 GA avg. and dismal .850 save %, while Hill has continued his run with a 2.25 GA avg and .920 save %.   Hill has only allowed 2 goals/game in regulation in the entire finals. 

On the offensive side, Vegas has outscored Florida 12-4 at home when they have the last change and can dictate matchups against the Panthers’ inferior depth.  This has been further enabled by Vegas’ 100% PK  rate and their 33% PP rate in their last 5 playoff games.

Vegas’ physical superiority has also been demonstrated as Panther players are struggling on the injury front as Duclair,  Luostarinen and most notably Tkachuk are all struggling and questionable for game 5.  And we can’t forget that Gudas is also in rough shape and was not very noticeable in game 4,

Vegas is 7-0 in their last 7 at home against the Panthers.  They also know how to close out a series as evidenced by their decisive 6-0 win to finish off Dallas, the 5-2 closeout against the Oilers and the 4-1 series ending win over Winnipeg.  Notice the theme here. The Panthers will be even more dispirited than those three teams. The Knights should win this one by 2 or more goals which offers a healthy payout. 

These are the two with the lowest total for expected wins this season in the West.  And rightfully so after they both struggled to get out of the basement all last season.  The Elks haven’t won at home since 2019.  They will finally win some but not this one.

They made some big changes in the off season that will take a while to come together.  Three new targets for QB Cornelius in MOP finalist Lewis and newcomers Moore and Dunbar should help him improve his numbers.  RB Brown who came in part way through last season and was very effective will have a whole season to provide another option for Cornelius.  The weak link in all of this is the O-line which made things difficult for their QB.  Trying to sort things out with all his new receivers will be difficult under pressure

The Roughriders also had O-line problems last season.  The biggest difference is that their D-line has some emerging stars in Laniers and Robertson and newcomer Johnson and solid Dean at LB that will be able to better take advantage of the Elks weak O-line.  The Roughriders also have veteran QB Harris who has come over from the Alouettes with teammate Wieneke as well as Walker from the Elks.  They have a better chance of gelling quickly than the Elks passing game does.  And the Roughriders also have the dynamic duo of Morrow and Hickson at RB that were very successful before going down with season ending injuries last season.  Grab the points and look for the Roughriders to score the minor upset.

 The Diamondbacks have won four straight, two against the Tigers, and all four on the road.  Those last four wins have all been by four or more runs.  Their ace is on the mound on Sunday.  Gallen allowed more hits than usual against the Braves but he still held them to 2 ER.  That is about average for the right-hander, on usually about six innings of work.  The Tigers, now 1-9, haven't been getting many innings from their starters.  Sunday's starter Wentz is one of the culprits, with most of his outings under five innings.  He has given up almost a run an inning, too many the result of home runs.  The Tigers have a very long list of injuries, most of them pitchers.  They are last in runs-scored this season, and their bullpen has been overworked, and just average in effectiveness lately.  The D-backs are a strong fifth in runs scored and hitting left-handed pitching at a .310 clip in their last ten games.  Take Arizona on the run line at -1 1/2.  10*!

The Bombers have decided to run it back, keeping a veteran laden roster for another go at the Grey Cup.  They have the least amount of changes in a league that has huge turnover year to year.  This should be effective at least for the first few games of the season as they will all be on the same page.  Only center Couture is gone from the O-line (although he was injured much of last year and replaced by this year’s starter Kolankowski).  All the skill positions on offence have returned and on defense Bighill (MLB) and DEs Jeffcoat and Jefferson are back.  This should bode well to start the season but lets check back on this in the Fall.

Hamilton is a different story.  They brought in declining QB Levi-Mitchell and star MLB Thurman from Calgary, star RB Butler from BC and DL Sayles from the Bombers to name a few newcomers.  They will take awhile to gel.  There is a good argument that Levi-Mitchell may not thrive.  Behind one of the best CFL O-lines in history (by the metric of sacks allowed) and with the leading CFL rusher Careyin Calgary, he has declined precipitously over the last few seasons.  In 2021 he threw for 8 yds/completion and a sad 10 TD/13 Int ratio.  In 2022 it was a 9 TD/6 Int ratio where due to injuries and performance he ceded the starters’ role to Maier.  His Hamilton O-line is not going to afford him the same luxury.  This may not be pretty. 

Part of the T-Cats’ personnel turnover was not positive as they lost three all-star starters in the secondary.  Winnipeg’s vaunted passing attack should excel.

The Bombers’ home record was 8-1 in 2022 while the TiCats’ road record was 2-7.

In their last 5 in June, against the spread the Bombers are 4-1.  The TiCats are 1-4 against the spread vs. Winnipeg and 1-3-1 against the spread in Winnipeg. Clearly you should lay the points and go with the Bombers to beat the spread.

The Orioles return home after an indifferent road trip.  They are a very good home team this year, up against a Royals team that is just 9-21 in away games.  Wells starts for the O's today.  He has been solid more often than not, with a ton of strikeouts this season.  He can be a victim of too many long balls, but is very sharp (2.45 ERA) at home this season.  Lefty Daniel Lynch has appeared in just two games since returning from injury, and has looked just average so far.  With one of the worst pens in the business, don't expect much support from the KC relievers today.

The Royals' run differential is a very unhealthy 2.4/5.1 in their last seven games.  They are a poor hitting team, especially so against right-handers. I expect a big day from Wells and the Orioles' top eight lineup today. Take Baltimore on the run line at -1 1/2. 9*!

This rematch of last season’s West semi-final  is a great way to start the season.  Historically, the Stamps have a wide edge in games at McMahon Stadium but so many of those legends have moved on.  Thurman and Orimolade are gone from the interior of a stout defense.  From one of the most outstanding O-lines in recent history, left tackle Dennis is gone and his replacement Coker is on IR.  Left guard Williams is also on IR so Jake Maier’s back is going to be vulnerable.  Starter Jamerson from the secondary is also on IR.  Rick Campbell and his savy staff will have taken notice.

This will also be a new experience for QB Maier as he is the man this year and no longer the eager understudy.  It will be a new kind of pressure.  BC shut him down in the West semi-final.  It will be interesting to see what adjustments are made.

Vernon Adams will have to prove that he can continue to be a solid game manager and not just “Big Play V.A.”  It looked that way last season as he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 interception in the six games he started and went 12 for 12 in preseason.  His trio of 1000+ yard receivers, Rhymes, Whitehead and Hatcher (on IR for this game) are back.  Cottoy, Hollins and McInnis are all superb options that will make up for Hatchers’ absence.  B.C. is also missing an O-line starter as newcomer Schleuger is out.  They are hopeful Couture (from the Bombers) can mesh with his old teammate Chungh on this years’ O-line.

It is sort of traditional to go with the under for at least the first couple of games of the season as defences are ahead of the offences but both of these squads look ready to put up points; especially BC.  That would be the easy play but the hot play is BC to cover the spread by winning the game.

You know the setup. The Nuggets won Game 1 and the Heat came back to win Game 2. The Heat may have stolen homecourt advantage but the Nuggets are still heavily favored to win the series. Most shops have them in the -275 range to do so. That means that they're expected to win at least one game at Miami. No time like the present to make that happen either. The only other time that the Nuggets were tied in a series was Game 5 against the Suns. Denver won by 16 and only trailed for 14 seconds of that entire game. The Nuggets are 3-0 straight-up and ATS their last three when tied in a series and they're 12-7-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss as favorite. The Heat are only 7-13 ATS when playing with 2 day's rest. Lay the small number with the Nuggets in Game 3. *Playoff GOY

The 6-4 Marlins, seventh in OPS over the last two weeks, are hitting pretty well for a change.  The A's are in their usual spot; dead last with a .173 batting average and a .480 OPS in the last two weeks.  Miami is a good home team and will look to take the second game of the series against the Hapless A's.  Medina, the A's rookie (0-4, 6.83 ERA) hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA would suggest,  if it weren't for the long ball.  He allowed three in his last start, and eight over 22 innings in May.  He will square off against another rookie, the highly-touted Eury Perez, who has started the season very well.  He shut out the Angels over five innings last time out.  Opposing batters are hitting just .188 against him over his four starts.  The Marlins bullpen has been uneven at times but very effective lately.  The A's pen is the worst in the league.  Take the favored Marlins on the run line today at -1 1/2.  10*!

As predicted, the Brewers picked on one of the Jays' struggling starters yesterday.  Today, I expect pay-back from Toronto.  Peralta starts for Milwaukee, and his May results were very mixed.  Two of his last three starts were outright poor, including a 2+ inning 10 run debacle last time out.  He has struggled on the road this season as well.   The Brewers aren't getting the same level of relief pitching we have grown accustomed to, with an ERA approaching 5.00 in the last ten games.   Gausman has been super sharp in 9 of 11 starts.  I am banking on another fine one today.  The Jays' offense has been something of a disappointment this season, but their big bats look to be waking up, led by Bichette and Springer at the moment.  They are hitting right-handers at a muscular .327 pace in their last 10 games. The Brew Crew are as usual struggling to score runs.  Look for the Jays to take it to Milwaukee, especially early. 

Teheran, who we have seen very little of in the past couple of years, looked sharp in his return allowing a single run over five innings in his first start of the season.  Manoah has not looked himself at all to date, and doesn't seem to be improving.  He has an ugly 6.45 ERA in May, averaging barely over four innings a start, with equal K's and BB's this month.  He has  been particularly bad at home.  The Blue Jays still haven't gelled as a team and are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. Both offense and relief pitching have been uneven. The Brewers, also 4-6, are as usual light-hitting, but aren't getting the pitching they usually have, including an average bullpen lately.  The Jays are a medium favorite, but I am just not confident that Manoah's troubles are over yet.  Look for a second strong outing from a voice from the past, and take the Brewers to at least keep this one close. Take Milwaukee +1 1/2.  9 stars!

The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). 

Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. 

The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load.

Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. 

The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* 

The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets.

Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. 

I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. 

LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number.

Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* 

Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. 

The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. 

The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. 

I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. 

The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6.  The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* 

For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2.

Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home.

The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. 

Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either.

The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. 

I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. 

The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 

76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. 

The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* 

The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight.

It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard.

I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off.

The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. 

Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* 

The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight.

Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. 

In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. 

At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10*

The see-saw nature of the Oilers/Knights series continued with Vegas stymying the Oilers in Edmonton, allowing just a single goal.  Vegas is a very tough out in away games, and they held the Oilers power play to no goals, while limiting penalties.  Adin Hill replaced Broissoit, and was perfect in game three as he was in the third period of game two.

Skinner was sub-par in game three.  In spite of his fine performance in the previous game, the Oilers have to be wondering about their young goal tender, who has now started 12 straight games.  There is no doubt that the Oilers will be all in tonight, but superior net-minding and their solid defensive road style should at least keep the Knight close in this one.  Take Vegas on the puck line at +1 1/2. 10*

Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. 

In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. 

But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. 

The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. 

After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* 

The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series.

But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2.

I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. 

Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. 

I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10*

Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. 

Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!)

I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver.

At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road.

Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10*

The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points.

It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three.

I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. 

Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. 

I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* 

Man, was Marlins lefty Garrett roughed up in his last game, especially after a good start to his season. 11 runs, and4 HR allowed in 4+ innings has got to rattle a young pitcher's confidence.  He hasn't pitched for length, which could be a problem today.  While the Marlins usually have a strong bullpen, a 14 inning game yesterday and a bullpen day on Saturday will leave the pen seriously short-staffed.  Arizona starter Zac Gallen has hit his stride.  After a poor opening day, he has been tough to beat, with an impressive 57-5 K/BB ratio and a tiny .84 WHIP.  The Diamondbacks have impressed on offense  and are ranked 6th in the league at the moment.  Their weak spot has been their bullpen, but Gallen will likely give them length as a starter.  The Marlins are again a light hitting team, ranked dead last in Runs/9.   After that fourteen inning game and travel time, they could be a little weary.  Take the D-backs on the run line at -1 1/2.

Golden State tied this series up with a convincing 127-100 victory in Game 2, shooting 50% overall and from three. But now they’re on the road - where they simply have not been the same team in 2022-23. 

The Warriors are 13-32 straight up and 14-30-1 ATS on the road this season. However, they have won their last two road games, both at Sacramento. 

My big concern with the Lakers is that they simply do not shoot the three well enough to stay with Golden State.  In six of their eight playoff games thus far, LA has shot worse than 30 percent from behind the arc. 

Also, as I’m sure you’ve heard, the Warriors have won at least one road game in every playoff series under Steve Kerr. 

The Dubs flat out looked like the better team in Game 2 and I see no reason why we shouldn't take them as underdogs here in Game 3. 10*

I just can’t trust the Heat as favorites, especially with all the injuries. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are of course out for the season while, more importantly, Jimmy Butler remains questionable due to an ankle.

Even at full strength, Miami is terrible as a home favorite. They are 13-23-2 ATS this season as chalk in South Beach, not to mention 20-37-2 ATS as favorites of any kind. 

If Butler can’t go, that’s two of the Heat’s three 20+ point scorers out of the lineup. I just don’t know where else the production would come from. They only scored 105 without Butler in Game 2. 

The Knicks lost Game 1, but they didn’t have Julius Randle, their top scorer. He, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett combine to average 68.7 points per game and they are all now healthy.

Big edge in rebounding for the Knicks as well in the first two games (+25). This team is 26-18 SU/28-15-1 ATS on the road. 10* 

Golden State is only 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road while the Lakers have had two more days rest after finishing off Memphis with an emphatic 40-point win. 

But the Warriors are 21-4 straight up in Game 1’s under Steve Kerr including 19-2 at home (did lose Gm 1 at Sacramento in Rd 1) while LeBron James is just 4-14 SU in his career in road Game 1’s.

So I’m going to go ahead and lay the points in this one. Golden State is simply a different team at home - where they are 35-9 SU and 29-15 ATS this year. Defensively is where we see the most improvement home vs. road with the Warriors. They allow just 111.8 points per game at home compared to 121.8 pn the road.

In two of the three games at Memphis in the first round, the Lakers failed to score 100 points. This is a problem facing a Warriors team that scores an average of 119.2 points at home. 

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors are 66-37 ATS at home when the total is 220 or higher. 8*

The Knicks really “gave” Game 1 away in my view. They were leading by double digits after the first quarter and then up 55-50 going into halftime. But ice cold shooting from three-point land doomed them. They finished the game a woeful 7 of 34 (20.6%) from long range. Let’s also not forget they missed 8 of 20 free throw attempts.

So I’ll lay the points again in Game 2 … Miami was already without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Now Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and that is obviously a major problem. Butler is clearly the Heat’s best player and carried them again with 25 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1. 

If Butler were to miss this game, I’d say the Heat have zero chance of winning.

Plus, NY could get Julius Randle back. Even if Randle doesn’t return, I expect Jalen Brunson to have a bounce back effort after he went 0 for 7 from three in Game 1. 

Miami is the ONLY playoff team that ended the regular season with a negative net efficiency rating. They also have a losing road record. After overperforming tremendously in the first round, at least at the offensive end, this is a team due for some serious regression - whether Butler can go or not. (Reports are that Butler’s ankle has swollen to the size of a baseball). 10*

Phoenix fell victim to some hot shooting from Denver, specifically from Jamal Murray, in Game 1 and that is why they came up short, 125-107. 

The good news for the Suns is that their two superstars - Kevin Durant and Devin Booker - both played well in Game 1. That duo combined for 56 points. Now they just need their teammates to “step it up.” 

The Nuggets were 16 of 37 from three and had 17 more FG attempts than the Suns in Game 1. Murray was 6 of 10 himself from three on his way to 34 points. I don’t see him matching that production in Game 2. 

Despite being the 4-seed, Phoenix is the betting favorite in this series and to win the Western Conference. I think they’re a great value as an underdog tonight.

The Suns only attempted five threes in the 1H Saturday night, but then started launching in the 2H. They only made seven threes for the game, a number they should easily exceed tonight and thus I like them to cover the spread. 10* 

It is Strider vs Reyes in Game one of the Braves/Mets double header today.  Strider has been arguably the best pitcher at this point in the season.  Reyes, just back from Triple A, has been sharp in relief but isn't stretched out as a starter.  Game one could be something of a bullpen day, which is problematic given the Mets' injury-riddled pitching staff.
I like Strider's chances against anyone, and he has certainly been getting run support, 18 in his last two appearances.  The Braves have a very dynamic offense.  The Mets' bats have been sulking of late.  I expect another huge game from Strider.  Take the Braves on the run line at -1 1/2.

I like the Knicks here in Game 1 of their second round series against the Heat.

Miami clearly overachieved in Round 1 vs. Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple games vs. the Bucks, but more notably the Heat averaged 124 points/game in the series, a double digit increase over what they averaged in the regular season. I expect some offensive regression from the visitors on Sunday.

New York just held Cleveland to an average of 94.2 points/game in the first round series. That’s a tremendous defensive effort. 

The Knicks have covered 24 of their last 35 games overall. The Heat are still only 19-25 SU and 18-26 ATS on the road this season.

Just don’t think this spread is large enough. Miami comes in short-handed as both Herro and Oladipo have been lost for the season. The Knicks are at full strength. 10* 

After a slump in offense, the Twins have put 6 or more runs on the board in their last 4 straight games.  Today's starter, Ober, obviously didn't appreciate being sent down after a fine spring, returning to the bigs with a very fine first start, allowing just 1 run in 5+ innings.  Royals' righty Keller's last two starts have been short and not so sweet, giving up 7 runs in 8 innings. The Royals don't hit well and the pen is struggling.  Not to mention, the Twins are the best offense in the league lately and are feasting on right-handers at the moment.  Take the Twins on the Run line at -1.5.  10*!

Atlanta shocked us all by winning Game 5 in Boston, 119-117 as 13-point underdogs. Over the final nine minutes, the Hawks outscored the Celtics 30-15 with Trae Young putting the exclamation point on things with a three-point bomb to win it with just two seconds remaining.

Atlanta made 19 threes in the game, none bigger than Young’s obviously, and making the result all the more shocking is that the Hawks were without Dejounte Murray (suspended).

Murray returns tonight as the series returns to Atlanta. But it’s difficult to ignore the fact the Celtics dominated Game 5 for three quarters, outscoring the Hawks 60-38 in the paint and 24-8 in transition.

I see Boston ending the series tonight and will lay the points. The Celtics are clearly the better team and have been ahead most of the series.

The Hawks are awful defensively (119.3 points/game allowed in this series) and won’t shoot 46% again from three. 10* 

The Bruins got to Bobrovsky for five goals and ran Lyons out in the previous game.  I'm not sure it will make any difference who is in net; Florida just doesn't have the defense to keep the Bruins in check.  Boston is an unstoppable force at this point and will have Bergeron back for game five, making them even tougher to play against.  I would be very surprised if the Panthers won another road game.  Ullmark looked terrific, stopping 41 of 43 shots, and trying to take on Tkachuk as well.  I think the Panthers have taken their best shot and have come up short.  Take the Bruins on the puck line at -1 1/2. 10*!

Korpisalo !has faced roughly forty shots a game from the #1 offense in the league.  He has been a lot better than most people expected so one off game is not surprising. 3 of 4 games in this series have gone to overtime so the Oilers as such a favorite in Game Five is a bit surprising.  The Oilers goal-tending situation is hardly clear.  They will have to decide between Skinner, who was pulled in the first period of Game Four, or Campbell who has barely played this month.  This has been an evenly matched series with the Kings largely keeping the Oilers offense in check.  There is every likelihood that LA can keep Game Five close again. A Kings win is not out of the question.  Take the Kings on the puck line at +1 1/2.  10*

It’s do or die in Game 4 for the Timberwolves, who are facing elimination at home. Denver has taken the first three games of this best of seven series, 109-80, 122-113 and 120-111. The Nuggets are shooting 52.1% for the series after going 57.1% in Game 3, which included 13 of 32 from three.

Minnesota has outscored Denver in just one of the 12 quarters in this series. 

But I expect a fired up effort by the home team in Game 4 with the season on the line. Denver isn’t likely to shoot as well as it did in the last game. It’s absolutely worth noting that the Nuggets have only prevailed by single digits each of the last two games despite shooting over 55% from the field.

Denver isn’t a great road team either. For the season, they have a losing record away from home, getting outscored by almost three points per game.

Minnesota is 9-2 ATS this season following three straight losses. They are 8-3 straight up in those games as well. 10*

The Rodriguezs  face off on Sunday.  Eduardo, is the veteran left-hander for the Tigers, off to a fine start.  His last start: 8 innings pitched, 0 runs, 10 strikeouts, 0 walks.  Grayson is the Orioles' promising young right-hander, off to a bit of a rough start.  The Tigers have some upside to date; not much offense, but a solid bullpen at the moment.  They've kept themselves in a lot of ballgames.  The Orioles have won 4 straight in an easy part of their schedule.  They hit well, but are softer against left-handers.  I like the pitching match-up for Detroit on Sunday.  A win wouldn't surprise me, but they should be able to at least keep this one close.  Take the Tigers on the run line at +1 1/2.

Ja Morant remains questionable for Game 3, but regardless if the Memphis’ star plays or not, I’m rolling with the Lakers.

LA took Game 1 128-112, thanks to four different players scoring 20 or more points. Predictably, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura cooled off in Game 2 and the Grizzlies, at home, were able to win without Ja, 103-93 as slight underdogs. 

But now the Grizz are on the road where they’ve gone just 14-26-2 ATS this season and they may be without their best player yet again.

Outside of LeBron James and Hachimura, the rest of the Lakers shot just 24.2% in Game 2. That number will go up by a lot here in Game 3. 

Memphis is 0-5 ATS the last five games off a SU win and 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games after an ATS win.  10* 

Two potential Cy young winners face off when The Sox' Cease facing Rays' lefty McClanahan.  One caveat here. Cease has issued twelve walks in his last three starts, and that won't wash with the Rays' potent bats.  It likely won't be the starters that decide this game. Rays are 7-3 and have won McClanahan's last four starts with ease.  They are the league's tops in both runs-for and runs-against.  The 3-7 White Sox are only average in offense and very poor in runs-against.  That overworked bullpen has struggled all year.  The Sox are hitting just .115 against left-handers over the last ten games, while the Rays have a team average of over .300 against right-handers in the same time period.  Take the Rays on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Cubs, the best hitting team in the league over the last week, crushed the Dodgers (10-11), roughing up their ace on Friday.  The Ddogers will face the Cubs' Wesneski on Saturday.  Don't let his ERA scare you; he started poorly, but his last appearance was no fluke.  This guy has high upside.  May starts for the Dodgers.  He began the season well but was roughed up in his last appearance, giving up 5 runs in 5+ innings.  It is very rare to see a Dodgers' bullpen as poor as this one has been of late, approaching an ERA of 7.00.  The Cubs' relievers are standing proud at  2.38 over the last week.
The Dodgers bats have also cooled off, slipping to 14th in runs/9.  As noted, the Cubs' bats are supercharged lately. The Dodgers are an unexpected  favorite on Saturday.  While a Cubs outright win wouldn't surprise me, the run line is even more tempting.  Take the Cubs + 1 1/2.

Not like this is some big revelation, but the Cavaliers have a very young roster with little playoff experience. This will be the first road playoff game for most and I see the team struggling tonight at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 against the Knicks.

Cleveland simply isn’t the same team away that they were at home. On the road this season, they are 17-21 straight up. Also, they are just 4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS in games where they are priced as an underdog.

Give the Cavs credit for a good season, but they benefited from a fortunate 7-0 SU record in overtime games and really dominated the lesser teams on the schedule (30-5 SU vs. sub-.500 teams). Against teams that have a winning record, the Cavs are just 22-27 SU this year.

The fact that the Knicks were able to escape Cleveland with a 1-1 split is actually encouraging when you consider they shot below 40% in the two games combined, including 15 of 58 from three. Back home, I expect far better offensive numbers tonight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 100 points or less. They scored 90 in Game 2. 

The Knicks are still 4-2 SU vs. Cleveland this year and I think they are really being undervalued in this spot. Look for a strong start by the home team tonight as they average more than 60 points per game in the 1H at home. That strong start should carry them to a Game 3 victory. 10* 

The A's are as bad as everyone expected.  They've allowed double figures in  runs/against in four of ten games,  winning just one in ten.  Lefty Sears starts for the A's.  Most of Sears' runs have come as a result of HR, five of them in three games.  Otherwise he has given innings and consistency.  It is what happens after Sears leaves that is concerning.  Oakland's bullpen has an ERA of 8.49/L10 as opposed to the Rangers' 3.18.

The Rangers have scored 37 runs in their last four games.  They swept their last series and took two of three from the Astros.  They are now second in Runs/9 in the MLB to date.  John Gray starts for Texas on Friday.  He has had three solid starts, pitching into the sixth on two of them, and allowing just five runs in fourteen innings.

The A's haven't put up much in the way of offense, just eight runs in total in their last five games. This is a great situation for the Rangers to stretch it out again.  Take Texas to win on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Warriors are down 0-2 in a series for the first time under Steve Kerr and won’t have Draymond Green (suspended) for Game 3. 

But the good news for Warriors’ fans is that home teams down 0-2 in a series are 50-26 SU in Game 3. I wouldn’t be concerned about laying the points as the SU winner has also covered the spread in every playoff game this season and 44 straight times going back to last season. 

Plus Golden State is a much different team at home than on the road (where they are a woeful 12-30 ATS). They are 33-8 SU and 28-13 ATS at the Chase Center.

Over the course of the first two games, the Warriors outshot the Kings - both overall and from three-point land. 

I worry about this young Kings’ team in its first playoff road game. Also, even after dropping Game 2, the Warriors are still 22-14 ATS off a playoff loss. 10*

The Kings struck first in their series vs the Oilers, just as they did last year.  They shut down McDavid if not Draisaitl, and got solid goal tending from Korpisalo.  Oiler's net minder Skinner looked less than sharp.  I am not convinced that LA can take two straight at home, but they appear to have the defense and muscle to at least contain Edmonton's potent offense. Goal tending is the Oilers' thorn in the side.  We will see if Skinner can bounce back.  The Oilers will either have to cut down on penalties or shape up on the PK  Take the Kings on the puck line at +1 1/2.

I will role with Phoenix in Game 1 as this is a completely different team when Kevin Durant plays (8-0 SU, outscoring opponents by 11.6 per 100 possessions)

When Durant plays with Devin Booker, the Suns have a +18.4 net rating and average 124.7 points per 100 possessions. They are a deserved favorite to come out of the Western Conference. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers don’t have Paul George for this series. They do have Kawhi Leonard, but I don’t think that’s enough to stay with the high-powered Suns, at least here in Game 1. 

In the regular season finale, when the Clippers needed a win to clinch the 5-seed, they could only beat Phoenix by five. And that was with the Suns sitting seven players, four of them being Durant, Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. 

The Clippers have underachieved all year and I don’t see that changing now. 10*

The Mariners rang up the visiting Rockies in their first two games.  I like their chances for a three game sweep. Their ace Castillo lost a step last time out, but still only allowed 2 runs over 6 innings after two near perfect earlier outings.  Castillo's WHIP is a paltry 0.74 to date.  The Rockies start rookie Davis today.  He pitched fairly well in the spring but didn't last more than 3 innings.  The last two Rockies starters managed just 3+ innings each, so Colorado will be looking for some innings from Davis today.  Either that, or tax an indifferent bullpen. The Mariners have a considerable step up on the Rockies in relief pitching.

The Mariners' offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but has started to perk up in the last week.  The Rockies are 26th in OPS on the road.  The M's are a large favorite, but won by 7 and 2 runs in the first games of the series.  Take the Mariners on the run line at -1 1/2 runs.

The Lakers earned the 7-seed by beating Minnesota in the Play-in Round back on Tuesday. But I felt LeBron and company were a little lucky to escape with a victory in that one. Not only did they need overtime to get the ‘W’ but they trailed by as many as 15 points in that game. The T’wolves scored just 16 points from the start of the fourth quarter through OT. 

Memphis, at home, is not going to wither like that. The Grizzlies finished the regular season with the best point differential in the Western Conference and are a much better team at home - where they’ve gone 35-6 SU on the year. They have the best point differential at home in the league, outscoring visiting teams by 10.6 per game. 

The Grizz also have the league’s second best defensive rating. 

LeBron is a somewhat shocking 3-14 SU on the road in Game 1’s in his career. 

Jaren Jackson Jr will need to stay out of foul trouble and Ja Morant will need to hit his threes, but I believe the Lakers are overvalued coming into this best of seven series. Lay the points. 10* 

Cleveland is roughly a 2/1 favorite to advance to the second round, but I think the Cavaliers may have more trouble with the Knicks than anticipated. 

The Cavs’ 51-31 SU record was the franchise’s best in a non-LeBron James season in 30 years. But they really benefited from a 7-0 record in overtime games and their net efficiency is a little misleading due to the fact they typically blew out the bad teams. Against opponents with a .500 or better record, the Cavs have been a losing straight up proposition this season.

The Knicks also had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, which includes a 3-1 SU/ATS record vs. Cleveland. 

Julius Randle is a question mark for Game 1 but so is Cleveland’s Isaac Okoro. Monitor their statuses, but regardless I’m taking NY plus the points for Game 1. 

While starters are called upon more come playoff time, it should be pointed out the Knicks’ bench really dominated their Cavaliers’ counterparts in the four regular season meetings. The Knicks also enjoyed a big edge in offensive rebounding in those games. 10*

I like the Royals +1.5 tonight, hosting Atlanta. 

Now it’s hardly been an inspiring start to the season for Kansas City, who comes in at just 4-9. But they are coming off an impressive 10-1 victory at Texas on Wednesday, their largest margin of victory in any game this season. The 10 runs also marked a season high.

Atlanta came into 2023 earmarked as one of the favorites to win the World Series. They’ve gotten off to a 9-4 start and lead the NL East. But I see this as a bit of a tricky spot. You’d have to go all the way back to April 5th to find the last time the Braves won a game by more than one run. All three wins against Cincinnati were of the one-run variety and before that they lost three in a row to San Diego. 

Brady Singer will start today for KC. I’d say his 4.91 ERA is misleading. In his only home start, Singer allowed just one run and two hits against Toronto. The Braves have never faced him before, not all that surprising given these two teams rarely meet. Still, it’s an edge to the pitcher. 

April 5th also marks the last time any Braves’ starter earned a victory. Charlie Morton gets the baseball tonight. He has not pitched well with a 1.936 WHIP in two starts. Being a veteran, the Royals will know what to expect from him, even if this is just Morton’s fifth appearance against them. 10* 

the Blue Jays bats are due for some big innings and Thursday could be the day.  The Tigers blew a fine start by Rodriguez in the late innings on Wednesday.  The bullpen is an issue; the Tigers' pen has an ERA of nearly 9.00 in the last week.  Both of Thursday's  projected starters bombed in their first start and improved in their second. the Jays' Bassitt was much improved.  He has been Mr. Dependable in previous seasons, and is a good bet for another solid result.  Turnbull was somewhat better in his last appearance, but missed 1 1/2 years to Tommy John surgery, so is still a work in progress.

The Jays are pretty formidable when facing a right-hander, batting nearly .300, with equivalent runs-scored.  The Tigers' offense has been slim lately with a 2.48 runs/9 average, and very poor defensive stats.  Look for the Jays to put up some significant numbers on Thursday.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

There is just one meaningful NHL game today, with the depleted Canadiens facing a teetering NY Islanders side.  This is critical mass for the Isles, who inexplicably lost to a struggling Capitals side on Monday.  The Habs are 3-7, and have been outscored heavily in those losses.  They are a very poor road team and have a shockingly long injury list.  Montreal goalie Montembeault allowed seven goals in his last start.  Isles' stellar net-minder Sorokin had one of his worst starts ever in the Capitals' game allowing three goal early.  Expect him to bounce back today; he was exceptional in his three previous starts.

This is a season-defining game for the Islanders and I believe they will respond.  They crushed the opposition in their two games previous to the Washington debacle.  They are a very good home team with solid defense and have been overachieving on offense in their wins.  Take the Islanders on the puck line to day at  -1 1/2.

I can't resist this one.  St Louis hasn't earned these odds.  Rockies starter Freeman has been as hot as anyone to start the season, with two six inning appearances and zero runs given up.  One of those games was at Coors Field.  Cards' starter Mikolas has not been good at all so far.  He has been hit very hard, giving up a run an inning to date.  This doesn't translate well to a start in Colorado.   The Rockies are hitting well for average and have won two straight games.  Bullpen? let's hope they don't need it too much.  The Cardinals are just 1-6 and lost to the Rockies on Monday.  They are projected to be a much better team than Colorado, but what you expect isn't always what you get.  Take the Rockies on the Run line, at +1 1/2.

The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road. 

The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight. 

In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games.

Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10* 

The Jets, on the cusp of a wild card spot, have won four of five games. With both offense and defense firing in their last two games, they've scored twelve goals and allowed just three, against better teams than Monday's opponent. They are well-rested and in an absolute must-win situation.

The Sharks have surprised some teams lately, but other than the PK, this is a pretty pedestrian team running out the season on the road. Kahkonen the Sharks' likely goalie, was pulled from his last game, allowing 4 goals in under 20 shots.

Looking at the Jets' schedule this is their only "easy" game left.  Look for all-out effort from a good defensive team with a top net-minder.  Take Winnipeg on the puck line on Monday.

This is one of the more meaningful games on the NBA slate Sunday. We know both New Orleans and Minnesota will be in the postseason, but it’s just a matter of seeding at this point. New Orleans can finish anywhere between 5th and 9th, which is a huge range of outcomes, while Minnesota will be either 8th or 9th.

Finishing 8th instead of 9th has its advantages as that would be the T’wolves would need to win just once, rather than twice, in the play-in tournament. 

New Orleans will also be motivated, especially by the prospect of avoiding the play-in altogether. But the Pelicans are just 15-25 SU on the road and I just don’t trust them as a small underdog in this spot. Earlier this season, these teams split a pair of games in New Orleans. Minnesota won the more recent game 111-102 after losing the first meeting by just a single point.

Yes, the Timberwolves played yesterday. But no starter exceeded 30 minutes and they put up a season-high 151 points on lowly San Antonio. 

New Orleans has also been pretty bad against teams with winning records. They are just 15-28 SU and 15-27-1 ATS.  Expect Minnesota, at home, to step up in the biggest game of the year.  10*

The Rays look pretty invincible, especially with Springs going a full seven innings yesterday, giving most of the pen the day off.  While they have yet to face tough competition, they are still 7-0  with starters and relievers under 2.50 ERA (first in the league) and tops also in runs/9, OPS, and HRs.  It's Rasmussen on Sunday.  He allowed 0 runs on 2 hits in his first start, and was very good in the preseason.  He'll be up against Kaprielian, who bombed in his first start, allowing a run an inning.  He is a better pitcher than he showed in game one, but won't get much support from a struggling A's offense, ranked in the high twenties in most of the league's offense categories.

It'll be closer than yesterday, but the Rays will still come out on top.  Take Tampa Bay on the run line at - 1 1/2.

I cashed with the Clippers earlier in the week as they beat the Lakers 125-118, a game which the Clips actually closed as a 1-point underdog (after opening -3.5) due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis both deciding to suit up for the other side. 

The Clippers still need wins, however. We now know that they’ll be in the playoffs, but it remains unclear if they’ll be a top six seed or forced to be in the play-in tournament. By winning these last two games (they close Sunday @ Phoenix), they’d guarantee themselves a top six spot (can finish as high as fifth). 

Clearly, the Clippers should have no problem winning at home Saturday against an unmotivated Portland team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Blazers have been surprisingly competitive on their current road trip, but four of their last seven losses overall have been by 24 or more points.

The Clips won 117-102 at Portland last month when the Blazers were far healthier. As of press time, the injury list for Portland contains 14 names, Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons among them. 

John Butler, Jeenathan Williams, Drew Eubanks, Skylar Mays and Trendon Watford was Portland’s starting five on Thursday. "These guys don't even know each other, to be honest with you," said coach Chauncey Billups. Sounds bad. 10* 

The Rockies have started better than the Nationals, and they beat them in the first game of the series in a tight 1-0 match-up.  Neither offense is up to much so far; it is rare to have a single run at anytime in a Coors Field game.  Rockies' pitcher Urena didn't pitch well in Spring Training, giving up a run an inning in his last three preseason starts.  He was even worse against the Padres, allowing 4 runs in 2+ innings.  Nats' starter , promising young left-hander MacKenzie Gore finished spring on a tear, and started the new season in the same way, pitching into the 6th, striking out 6, and allowing just a single run.  Against the Braves' bats, so no mean feat.  The Nationals have some decent arms in the pen who are pitching well in the early season.

Wins are going to be few and far between, so Washington better take advantage of Gore's starts when they come.  I like the underdog's chances on Friday, but they don't hit very well.  I expect Washington will at least keep this one close.  Take the Nationals on the run line at +1 1/2.

Milwaukee has already clinched the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference, so their work is done for the regular season. Memphis still needs one more win to clinch the 2-seed in the Western Conference, so I’ll bet accordingly here as the Bucks figure to rest most, if not all, of their key players.

Despite resting some key players, including Ja Morant, the Grizzlies took New Orleans to overtime the other night, eventually losing 138-131. Jaren Jackson had 40 points. Morant, Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman are NOT on the injury list for tonight, so expect the Grizz to be at closer to full strength.

Back in December, Memphis destroyed Milwaukee 142-101. 

When they are an underdog, the Bucks are 4-11 SU, 4-10-1 ATS this season. They’ve lost those games by an average of more than 10 points.

This boils down to simple motivation. Memphis wants to win. Milwaukee doesn’t care. Yes, the line is inflated, but that shouldn’t matter with the lineup the Bucks are likely to trot out tonight. 8*

This is one of the few significant games today; significant for the Kraken, that is, who are still in a fight for a wild card spot. After eight straight losses, the Coyotes seem to have visions of Bedard and the golf green.  They lost their home game 8-1 to the Kraken, in a rink where they have been highly competitive this year.  They have been pretty dismal on the road this season..  This is an absolute must win for Seattle and not just for their  playoff position.  They have had real trouble stringing together wins, and a victory tonight would make it three straight.  They still have one of the league's best offenses, and Vejmelka, who has held Arizona in so many games this year,  has struggled of late.  Take the Kraken to go all in tonight.  Seattle to win on the puck line at -1 1/2.

Portland comes in at 33-46 on the year while San Antonio (20-59) is already guaranteed a bottom three record in the league. So the teams are just playing for pride in what is seemingly an “unattractive” matchup on Thursday’s NBA slate. Note this game is not being played in San Antonio, but rather in Austin at the Moody Center, which is the home of the Texas Longhorns.

However, despite the lack of stakes and true home court advantage, the Spurs are the play here. Portland comes into this game with one of the more absurd injury reports you’ll ever see. Damian Lillard has already been shut down for the season. Three other starters (Grant, Nurkic, Simons) all missed Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies. Shaedon Sharpe, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of the last eight games, is listed as questionable for tonight.

San Antonio also has a lengthy injury list. But I still see them winning this game with room to spare. Going back to March 10th, they actually have double the number of wins (4) compared to the Blazers (2). 

The Spurs just played three of the top four teams in the West, all on the road, so those results really have no bearing on my read here. (It should be noted they did win at Sacramento as 16-point underdogs though). 

This will be just the third time all year that the Spurs come in as the favorite. They are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two instances, winning those games by an average of 15 points/game. 10* 

This would appear to be a tremendous spot to hammer the Clippers, who have been off for three days while the Lakers are coming off an overtime win last night. While not a true road game for the Lakers, they did just play four road games in the last six days and may have little in the tank here.

With a 1:43 left to go in regulation last night, the Lakers appeared poised to be well on their way to a fourth straight win. They were up 10, but shockingly fell apart down the stretch against a Jazz team that was without three starters. Eventually, the Lakers got it done, winning 135-133 thanks to LeBron James. But those extra five minutes of action were totally needless and could end up costing them big time tonight.

Furthermore, you’ve got to consider that the Clippers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 against the spread in the previous 10 meetings with the Lakers.

Off the three-day break, the Clippers should come out angry as they’ve lost two straight games. They are now tied with the Lakers for the coveted sixth seed in the Western Conference. Obviously, both teams want to finish in the top six so that they don’t have to do the play-in tournament. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU/ATS playing with three or more days rest this season. I can’t believe this spread is so low, considering how advantageous the situation seems to be for the “home team.” Lay it. 10* 

UConn is a heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday. They may very well end up winning, but this is too many points to lay to a very good San Diego State. It’s a bigger number than the UConn-Miami game and I have San Diego State rated higher than Miami.

NCAA Title Game favorites of eight points or higher are just 2-5 ATS since 1970. We’re not quite there yet, but it’s something that I wanted to note. 

Now I’m fully aware that UConn has won its five previous Tournament games by an average 20.6 points/game while beating the spread by more than 15 points per game. But we also need to salute what San Diego State has done. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the Tournament and have won nine games in a row overall. 

Both teams play outstanding defense and neither plays particularly fast. While the respective Final Four opponents looked to speed them up, no one is looking to play fast here. UConn is 214th in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is 270th. 

Don’t consider this an endorsement of the Under, but I certainly don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game. Points will be at a premium, thus taking the underdog is the way to go here. San Diego State has only ONE double digit loss all year and it was to Arizona back in November. 10* 

On a four-game win streak, Phoenix seems to have solidified itself as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are fully healthy now with Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton back in the lineup. Sunday they head to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in desperate need of a win.

OKC is still holding onto that last spot for the play-in tournament, but it’s been a poor stretch with the team just 2-4 SU/0-5-1 ATS over its last six games. Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returning Friday, they suffered a head-scratching 121-117 defeat at Indiana as 5.5-point favorites.

Going just 1-2 SU against the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference (Charlotte, Detroit, Indiana) isn’t a great sign, but I like the Thunder to bounce back here. They’ve got more to play for and are now back in their more comfortable role of underdog (31-19 ATS when taking points this season). 

Phoenix is just 16-23 SU on the road. They lost their only previous visit of the season to OKC, just last month, although it should be pointed out they were playing shorthanded at the time. 

Keep in mind that the Thunder didn’t have SGA in the two games prior to losing to Indiana. Take the points here. 10*

Bet against this Miami team at your own peril. The Hurricanes are 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season, winning five of those games outright. They come into the Final Four fresh off upsets of Indiana, Houston and Texas. 

It’s not just this season either. Under Larranaga, Miami is 33-12 ATS as a dog the last three seasons and 20-5 ATS since the start of last season

UConn seems to be the popular choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but can they sustain their recent level of play? Probably not! The Huskies have made it look easy so far, winning their first four tournament games by a combined 90 points.

But Miami has put up 85, 89 and 88 points the last three games, two of those against top 10 defenses in the country. They are doing so without a high volume of threes, which makes the scoring even more impressive. 

With its incredible stable of guards, Miami can beat anyone on any given night. I’ll gladly take the points with the best underdog team in the country the L3 seasons. They’ve faced the tougher competition in this Tournament and since January 11th, they’ve lost only ONE game by more than three points. That was in the ACC Tournament against Duke, a game where they lost their big man Norchad Omier in a matter of seconds. Take the points. 10* 

The Padres have started the season at 0-2 against a much weaker Rockies team, but the losing ends today. Colorado's starter Urena's spring training began well but has gone downhill since.  He has given up a run an inning and 5 home runs in his last three starts.  Urena has never beaten the Padres.  Padres' hurler Wacha is off an excellent 2022 and a decent spring. The Rockies have never won against Wacha. San Diego's bull pen should have the edge on Colorado.  The Rockies' bull pen does not project well this season, while the Padres' relievers are expected to be a plus.
The is a mighty Padres' offense, against a much weaker Rockies team who are notoriously poor on the road.  Take the Padres on the run line as they get back on track today.

This is a likely first round playoff series as the 4th place Cavs (48-29) take on the 5th place Knicks (44-33). New York has won two of the three prior meetings, but all of those were at least two months ago. 

Cleveland has been an excellent home team all season (30-8 SU) not to mention they own the league’s second best overall point differential this season (trailing only Boston). They are #1 in defensive efficiency as well. It would be hard to argue the Cavs aren’t the favorite to win a first round series, against the Knicks or anyone outside the current top three in the East. 

The Knicks are just 5-6 SU/ATS over their previous 11 games, though they have won the last two, beating Houston and Miami. But both of those victories came at home. They’ve lost two in a row on the road, falling at Miami and Orlando.

The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth and would lock up a top four seed with a win tonight. The Knicks would clinch a playoff spot with a win here, but unfortunately for them, they’ll be without Julius Randle. That is a significant loss as Randle is averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game

Cleveland may be without some key pieces as well (Allen, Okoro), but being at home and wanting to wash away the bad taste of Wednesday’s loss in Atlanta should have them properly motivated in this one. The Cavs are 10-4-1 ATS L15 off a SU loss. 10* 

I like UAB to win the NIT. The Blazers’ only loss in their last 13 games came to FAU in the C-USA Tourney Final and they (UAB) were actually favored over a team that’s now in the Final 4 of the “Big Dance.” 

With North Texas also involved here, it’s an all Conference USA Final. In addition to FAU’s run, Charlotte has already won the CBI, so what an impressive run by this league in March. This is the fourth meeting between North Texas & UAB this season. North Texas won both in the regular season, but UAB got revenge in the conference tournament with a 76-69 win as 1-point favorites. 

North Texas needed a bit of a miracle to get by Wisconsin in its last game. The Badgers didn’t score over the game’s final nine minutes. Tip your cap to the Mean Green defense, but this is a team that needed OT to get by Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals as well. 

I’m just not sure North Texas can generate enough offense here. They’ve barely won the last two games, despite giving up an average of 54.5 points/game in regulation. Wisconsin did score 41 against them in the first half Tuesday. UAB averages 81.3 points/game, which is top 10 in the country.

Plus the potential absence of big man Abou Ousmane (team leader in rebounds and blocks) looms large for North Texas. Lay the points. 10*

The 7-3 Bruins are off a rare loss, never a good sign for the next opposing team. Columbus has been giving up vast numbers of goals, 38 in their last 6 games alone.  The Columbus goal tending situation is unclear tonight, but it will likely be Swayman  in net for the Bruins.  He has "just" a pair of shutouts in his last four games.  With the best defense and PK in the business, the Bruins allow very few goals.  They don't usually win big, but today could be an exception. That loss in their last game should keep them focused against a very weak opponent.  Columbus also has Laine and four defensemen out today. Take the Bruins on the puck line today at -1 1/2.

The Braves' starter Max Fried carried last year's success in to spring training and hasn't given up a run in the preseason.  Corbin, off two lost years, has been better in the spring, but we will have to see how that translates in seasonal play.  The Braves are first in batting through spring training, while the Nationals are 28th.  Washington made very few significant changes in the off season, and are facing likely the top team in the NL.  Anything can happen in baseball, but it is almost certain that the Braves will  win big.  Take Atlanta on the run line at -1 1/2. 7 stars!

Barring an unforeseen setback, Kevin Durant is set to make his return to the Suns lineup on Wednesday. The team has gone 4-6 SU with Durant out of the lineup, but things have been trending up with two straight wins. I was on the Suns (-6.5) Monday as they beat the Jazz 117-103 on the road. Deandre Ayton returned to the lineup for that game and scored 14 points. So this team is finally at full strength.

Phoenix is 4th in the West right now with a 40-35 record. Lurking not far behind in 6th is Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 39-37 following four straight wins, all of those coming by six points or less. 

Karl-Anthony Towns sat out the T’wolves’ 119-115 win at Sacramento Monday due to injury management. But even with his impending return for this game, I don’t like the spot for the visitors. It will be their third road game in four nights and some of these recent victories, such as the one at Golden State Sunday were a little fortunate. 

Minnesota still has a negative scoring differential this year. That’s a sign that they are unlikely to hold onto a top six spot. Four teams below them in the standings have better YTD point differentials. 

Having Durant, Ayton, Devin Booker and Chris Paul all in the starting lineup makes Phoenix one of the top teams in the league. Though this number has already been steamed up, I like the Suns minus the points. They’ve averaged 120 points over the last five games and should have their way with a Minnesota defense that is allowing 121.7 points over its last six games. 10*

Utah Valley has been the most profitable College Basketball team to bet on this season. The Wolverines enter the NIT semifinals with a 24-9 ATS record. Since the start of February, they are 11-2 straight up and ATS in all games. They’ve beaten New Mexico, Colorado and Cincinnati to get here. 

But UAB, while not quite as profitable at the betting window, is the deserved favorite in this one. The Blazers have won 15 out of 17 games, going back to late January. The only two losses were to another NIT Final Four team (North Texas) and to Florida Atlantic in the Final of the C-USA Tournament. I probably don’t need to remind you as to what FAU has accomplished this March. 

Led by Jordan “Jelly” Walker, UAB has beaten Southern Miss by 28, Morehead State by 18 and Vanderbilt (on the road) by 8 in their previous three NIT games. They average 81.1 points while giving up only 69.9 per game. Eight of their last 15 wins have come by double digits.

Early money sided with the Blazers and so do I. They are the better team at both ends of the floor and played in the tougher conference.

Walker hasn’t even been shooting all that well recently (below 40% L4 games) and it hasn’t mattered. UAB went just 2 of 15 from three at Vandy and still won going away. They are simply the better team here and I will lay the points. 10*

The Suns snapped a seven-game ATS losing streak their last time out, beating the Philadelphia 76ers 125-105 as a 2.5-point favorite. It was also just the second SU win for Phoenix over an eight-game stretch. Having been playing without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant, the team is currently 4th in the West. But they’ve got six teams behind them within 2.5 games.

The good news is Ayton is expected to take the floor tonight for the Suns as they visit a Jazz team that is even less healthy. Utah’s three leading scorers - Markkanen, Clarkson and Sexton - all missed Saturday when the team lost for the third straight time, 121-113 to Sacramento as 9.5-point underdogs.

The Jazz have fallen back into 12th place in the conference, meaning they’d be out of the playoffs. You have to remember that back at the start of the season, very little was expected from this team. They had one of the lowest season win totals coming into 2022-23. 

Utah has definitely overachieved, but shorthanded, they can’t match up with Phoenix here. Devin Booker went for 29 against Philly while Bismack Biyombo had 17 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks. 

Before losing at Sacramento, the Jazz lost back to back home games - one to Portland (Blazers’ only win in forever) and one to Milwaukee (gave up 144 points). 8* 

After opening the Tournament with a couple wins over double digit seeds (Charleston, Furman), San Diego State served notice with a 71-64 victory over top-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. They pulled the upset despite leading scorer Matt Bradley going just 2 for 9 from the field and finishing with only 6 pts. 

The key was holding Alabama to 3 of 23 from behind the arc. The Aztecs can’t count on Creighton being that cold Sunday in the Elite 8, but they (SDSU) have held opponents to 28.2% for the year from three. 

Creighton is likely due for some shooting regression after making 58% of their FG attempts Friday. Getting a 15-seed (Princeton) in the Sweet 16 is as favorable as it gets for the Bluejays, who I also think weren’t as dominant as the final score (85-76) showed against Baylor in Round 2. They were 11 of 24 from three in that game. 

End of the day, Creighton is in store for some serious shooting regression against what is a top four defense in the country per KenPom.

Also, lower seeded teams are just 2-5 SU/ATS in this year’s Tournament when favored. Creighton is a 6-seed. San Diego State is a 5-seed. The Aztecs also have revenge from last year’s Tournament when they were up nine with less than four minutes in regulation, only to lose in OT. 10* 

Denver returns home for a huge showdown with Milwaukee Saturday night. These are the top teams in each conference, Milwaukee is 52-30 and has a 2.5-game edge in the East while Denver 49-24 with a three-game edge in the West.

The Nuggets have had two days off. They finished their road trip 3-2 SU/ATS after winning at Brooklyn and Washington. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is in the second night of a back to back after destroying Utah last night on the road. 

You can throw out the 107-99 win Milwaukee had against Denver back in January. The Nuggets rested most of their key guys in that game. 

Denver is 30-6 SU at home and outscoring teams here by about 10.5 PPG. 

I know it’s scary to fade a Bucks team that is 24-3 SU its last 27 games and 9-1 SU/9-0-1 ATS in the second night of a back to back. But playing at altitude without rest is a tough proposition, even if starters were able to rest in the 4Q last night. 10*

Kansas State is coming off back to back wins (75-69 over Kentucky and 98-93 over Michigan State) where they were underdogs, despite being the higher seed. In each instance, ShotQuality data indicates that the Wildcats “should have” lost, the Kentucky game due to being a little fortunate defensively and the Michigan State game due to being a little fortunate on both ends of the court. 

So far in this Tournament, KSU is shooting 65% from two-point range, so they are definitely due for a little regression here. KenPom has FAU rated as the better team here, and I won’t disagree, so let’s take the points in this first Elite 8 matchup. 

After squeaking by Memphis in Round 1, Florida Atlantic has beaten 16-seed FDU and then 4-seed Tennessee. That second round matchup was a bit of a gift and the Owls underperformed (perhaps feeling the pressure as big favorites?) but I didn’t think there was anything phony about the Sweet 16 win over Tennessee.

The Owls held the Vols to 33.3% shooting in the 62-55 win. This is a team that’s now won 10 in a row - with six different leading scorers - and is 34-3 SU on the year. 

I don’t think Kansas State will shoot 55% in this game as they have in two of the previous three rounds. Remember they’ve needed Kentucky to 4 of 20 from three and then shoot the lights out themselves to get by Michigan State. 8* 

Phoenix is struggling mightily right now as over the last six games they are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. They are without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant heading into Sacramento Friday night.

A big problem for the Suns right now is free throw disparity. They simply are not getting to the line. The last time they attempted more FTs than their opponent was 2/26.

This six-game ATS slide began with a 128-119 home loss to Sacramento (as four-point favorites). Ayton had 22 points and 12 rebounds in that game. 

The Kings are looking to bounce back from back to back losses to Utah and Boston. Prior to those losses, the team had won seven of eight. They gave up 132 to the Celtics, but are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 130+ in the previous game. 

This is a key game in the Western Conference playoff picture. I just think it sets up well for the Kings, who are at home and clearly healthier than the Suns right now. 10*

Miami is the 5-seed here in the Midwest Region and just beat Indiana 85-69 as a 1.5-point underdog in the second round. But that came on the heels of a close call vs. Drake in the first round where the Hurricanes needed to rally late for a 63-56 win and cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Top seed Houston failed to cover its first round game as the Cougars could only defeat 16-seed Northern Kentucky (a tricky team that plays zone defense) 63-52 as lofty 19-point favorites. But after falling behind early, Kelvin Sampson’s team roared back in the second round, eventually blowing out Auburn 81-64 as 5.5-point chalk.

Looking at this matchup, the one thing that sticks out is Miami ranks just 109th in defensive efficiency. That’s the worst defensive rating among all Sweet 16 teams (even worse than Princeton) and I think they’ll struggle to contain Marcus Sasser (22 points vs. Auburn) and company. Miami is allowing almost 54% of its opponents’ points to be scored inside the three-point line.

Miami supporters will point to the guard play, which was tremendous again vs. Indiana. But this is a far worse matchup for the Hurricanes as Houston allows the lowest midrange shooting percentage in the country and also have the highest block rate in all of College Basketball.

Furthemore, Houston has a big edge in rebounding in this matchup and is well-suited to slowing down Miami, thus limiting the ‘Canes’ transition opportunities. 10* 

Both Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant have been ruled out here for Portland, but Utah may be without some key pieces as well with Lori Markkanen having missed the last game and Jordan Clarkson still banged up. So I’m willing to take the Blazers plus the points in what is essentially a must win for them.

Portland comes into tonight trailing Utah by four games in the race for the last play-in spot. The Blazers have lost six in a row, failing to cover the last four, to fall back in the playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Jazz are trending in the other direction with six straight covers and winning four of their last five straight up.

But I still don’t see that much of a difference between these two Northwest Division clubs. Utah has been great as a dog this season, but they are only 12-19 ATS when favored. Having the seventh worst defensive rating in the league is also not ideal when the Jazz are laying points.

The Blazers have won the previous two meetings and have shot 47% or better against the Jazz all three times they’ve faced them in 2022-23. The one loss came by only five points. Damian Lillard scored 60 the last time they played.

With Milwaukee coming to town Friday, Utah may be looking past Portland. I just think the Jazz are due to “lay an egg” this evening. The only two times since the All Star Break where Utah has been asked to lay more than a point both came against San Antonio and they lost one of those games. Take the points. 10* 

This is a spot where the Pelicans should absolutely roll. San Antonio is the worst team in the league and winning is not in their best interest at this point. The Spurs did win Sunday, 126-118 at home against Atlanta. However, I thought that was a phony result as they not only erased a 24-point deficit, but also were fortunate to go 14 of 28 from three while the Hawks were just 5 of 22. 

The Spurs main focus at this point should be to lose as many games as possible and thus better their chances in the Draft Lottery. They have the worst point differential in the league and are being outscored by 13 points/game on the road.

New Orleans needs this game after only managing a split with another lowly team, Houston. The Pelicans are currently 12th in the Western Conference, but just one game back of the final play-in spot. Having a positive YTD point differential tells me this team is better than its 34-37 SU record.

The Pelicans have already beaten the Spurs three times this season, putting up 129, 117 and 126 points. They are 22-13 SU at home. 

The Spurs have covered only 5 of 23 road games with a total of 230 or higher. 10*

The Jets are in the midst of blowing a once promising season.  They've lost six of ten, can't win at home with regularity, and can't seem to find the back of the net anywhere. Three of their last four wins have been by a single goal. They've scored just two goals in three games, and were shut out twice. Star net-minder Hellebuyck has not looked his best February through March.
Meanwhile, the lowly Coyotes have won 6 of 7 games, and their last two losses have gone to overtime.  They are better rested than the Jets, and should have Vejmelka back in net on Tuesday.  The Coyotes are very much over-achieving on offense, averaging 4 goals per game over their last 8 starts.  I'll take the Coyotes on the puck line at +1 1/2.

This is a great spot to fire on Southern Utah, in my opinion, as Eastern Kentucky is not only playing its third game in three days but the previous two both went to overtime!

On Sunday, EKU rallied back from a 13-point second half deficit to stun Cleveland State 91-75 as a one-point favorite. That was one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see as the Colonels outscored the Vikings 17-1 in OT. Then yesterday, they were ahead most of the way against Indiana State, only to again go to OT - where they prevailed 89-88 as a seven-point dog. 

Southern Utah had a close call yesterday as well, beating Rice 91-89 but failing to cover the 4.5-point spread. But that too was a misleading result as the Thunderbirds led the entire way and were up by as much as 17. 

This is SUU’s third game in four days, but they had Sunday off and have not logged the extra minutes EKU has. Furthermore, Southern Utah easily won its first CBI game, 72-50 over North Alabama, an ASun rival of EKU. 

Southern Utah (16th in adjusted tempo) plays even faster than Eastern Kentucky (44th). A fast paced game is not ideal for the Colonels right now, given they’ve played 90 minutes of hard fought basketball the last two days. Lay the short number. 10* 

The 7-3 Oilers are still within sight of first place in the West, which makes a win in Monday's game against the Sharks absolutely vital.  Edmonton hasn't played a really poor team in ten games, which makes their record even more impressive.  There are no questions around their offense; they've outscored their opponents 16-8 in their last three games.  Their defense has perked up lately.  They limited the Bruins, Sabres and Dallas to two goals or less in recent games.
The Sharks truly are a poor team at the moment, losing 6 straight games.  With the league's 30th ranked defense, they will be in tough against the Oilers' top of the pops offense and Power Play. Sharks likely goalie Kahkonen's save % over his last 5 games is a very humble .836, including an eight and a six goals-against effort.  The Oilers Skinner has won 7 of 8 games, with just one sub-par start against the Leafs during that time.
I generally shy away from the puck line, but this is one game where I feel comfortable in wagering on it.  Look for the Oilers to light it up on Monday.  Edmonton - 1 1/2!

Utah has now covered five in a row, though they had to come back from down 19 on Saturday to stun Boston 118-117 (as 4.5 point pups) here at home. Nevertheless, oddsmakers continue to not give this Jazz team the respect it deserves considering a phenomenal 26-10 ATS mark as an underdog, which is best in the league. 

Speaking of a team that doesn’t get enough respect, Sacramento is tied for 2nd in the West (with Memphis) at 43-27 SU. The Kings are well-positioned to snap the longest active playoff drought in the four major North American sports. They last made the playoffs in the 2005-2006 season. 

But while the Kings come into Monday on a hot 6-1 SU/ATS run, this is not a great spot for them as it will be their fourth road game in the last six days. They’ve won each of the previous three, but two of those were by five points or less. 

Speaking of close games, these teams have already met twice this year and while the Kings are 2-0 straight up against the Jazz, those two wins were by a total of three points. Both were decided in the closing seconds. 

Sacramento shot almost 56% from the floor against Washington on Saturday, which included 22 of 37 from three. Don’t expect them to repeat those numbers here. This is too many points to lay to a competent team at the end of a road trip. 10*

Milwaukee was a surprise team in the Horizon League this season, finishing second behind Youngstown State. But the Panthers’ run towards the NCAA Tournament ended with a semifinal loss in the conference tournament, 93-80 to Cleveland State. They got the invite to the CBI, however, and made the most of it by defeating Stetson in OT yesterday, 87-83 as a 1.5-point dog.

You may think Charlotte has a bit of an edge because their first round CBI game was on Saturday. The 49ers did defeat Western Carolina 65-56 as six-point favorites. But they had to come back from a 31-20 halftime deficit to do so. WCU shot 3 of 20 from three-point range and was just 3 of 7 from the free throw line.

I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of numbers tonight from Milwaukee, who averages eight made threes per game and shoots nearly 74% from the FT line. 

Important to note that Charlotte came into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games following an ATS win. 

Even with the rest advantage, I don’t see how the 49ers are this big of a favorite. It will be interesting to see what pace this game is played at because Milwaukee is 12th in the country in adjusted tempo while Charlotts is 362nd (second slowest). The Panthers are 7-2 ATS following a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 10* 

Miami was only a 2.5-point favorite against Drake in the first round. Like all of the other 5-seeds, the Hurricanes were able to avoid the upset, but in their case it was not easy. The ‘Canes trailed Drake by eight points with under five minutes to go, only to close with a 16-1 run. 

It was a real shock that Miami could win a game where it shot 11 of 38 on two-point attempts. I say that because this is a team that typically relies on its offense. The Hurricanes are just 114th in the country in defensive efficiency, the lowest ranking among remaining tourney teams save for Fairleigh Dickinson. 

Indiana will not let “The U” off the hook the same way Drake did. The Hoosiers had far less problems in Round 1 as they beat a very good Kent State team 71-60 as 4.5-point favorites. IU held Kent to just 32% from the field. 

Jackson-Davis should have a big game here for the Hoosiers against a Miami team that I already mentioned is suspect defensively. The ‘Canes don’t really have the size to match up.

IU can also shoot the three. Defensively, they are built to stop Miami’s backcourt. 10* 

The Bulls have righted the ship a bit with three wins in the last four games. They are 3-1 ATS in that same stretch. Previously, they’d really struggled ATS, covering just 2 of 12 games.

Chicago comes into Saturday in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. That’s obviously the last play-in spot. But it’s a tight lead with Indiana only one-half game back. The Bulls really need this one.

Miami is 7th in the East and barring some late collapse will make the playoffs, or at least the play-in round. But what I find interesting is that Chicago has the better YTD point differential of these two teams.

The Heat have been real money-burners when favored this season, going 15-32 ATS. They are just 4-15 ATS their last 19 games overall.

Bottom line is I don’t think the Heat should be favored here. Take the points. 10*

The Flyers are 2-10 in back to backs, while the Hurricanes are 7-2.  The Canes are 8-1 against teams with a losing record.  The Flyers are 3-12 vs teams with winning records.  Carolina  has lost 3 of 4, are one of the league's best road teams, and should be in an ugly mood after their recent poor play.  The Flyers won last night for just the second time in 10 games, and have lost by multiple goals in 6 of 10 starts.

The Flyers will likely start Sandstrom in net.  He has lost 8 straight.  Between goalie Andersen and the Canes' second ranked defense and PK, Carolina should have their way with the Flyers offense and PP, worst and second worst in the NHL.  Look for Carolina to bounce back in a big way on Saturday night.  Take the Hurricanes on the puck line at -1 1/2.

This number seems crazy to me. I’ve got Tennessee rated as the better team, so there’s no way they should be getting three (or more) points here even though Duke looked awfully impressive in its first round blowout over Oral Roberts.

Believe it or not, Shot Quality numbers suggest Duke was not nearly as dominant as the final score showed against Oral Roberts. That surprised me a bit as the Blue Devils were never threatened in the 74-51 win. But Oral Roberts missed a TON of open shots in that game.

Tennessee only won by three against Louisiana in their first round game. But they led by as many as 18 points and only shot 25% from three. I think the Vols are better than how they looked Thursday.

No Zeigler remains a big deal for UT but this team can play defense. They are #2 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), holding teams to 37.0% overall shooting and 26% from three.

The ACC was really down this year and I think we’re at the peak of the market right now with Duke, who won their conference tournament and is drastically overvalued as a result. I think the wrong team is favored in this 4 vs. 5 matchup. Take the points. 10* 

I think this is a very tough matchup for 4-seed Indiana drawing Kent State as a 13-seed. Champions of the Mid-American Conference, Kent State won’t be the least bit intimidated here

The Golden Flashes have a slightly higher defensive efficiency rating than Indiana. That’s notable as, rarely, do you see the mid-major underdog with a higher defensive efficiency rating than the favored school from a power conference.

Sincere Carry is the player to watch for Kent State. Defensively, I think they can do a good job at limiting Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. 

The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, 4-0 ATS on a neutral court and 10-1 ATS in the non-conference. They very nearly beat Houston and stayed within seven of Gonzaga. 

Indiana is just 7-9 SU away from Assembly Hall and MAC teams have done quite well recently in this Tournament as underdogs. Take the points. 10*