All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
08-12-18 | Storm v. Lynx -1 | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have already played twice this year and each has won on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I think this trend carries over here. The teams: Seattle comes in off a 100-77 setback at Washington on Thursday and I predict another “letdown” here as well. The Storm will close out the year with two “cream puffs” at home against the Liberty and Wings, so I’m expecting the visitors to get caught “looking ahead.” The Storm are led by Brenna Stewart with 22.2 points and 8.1 boards per game while Sue Bird added 7.3 assister per night. Minnesota comes in off back-to-back victories and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.4 PPG, while Sylvia Fowles adds 11.9 boards. The pick: Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, but as I mentioned off the top, I think the Storm get caught looking ahead here to their final two games of the season in friendly confines. Play on Minnesota. |
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08-12-18 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. In fact, I believe the talent-gap to be so large, that I absolutely have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Ramirez is so far 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He’s been out since late April with a shoulder injury, but he’s been cleared to go finally tonight after making several re-hab starts over the last few weeks. Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA. He comes in off a no-decision to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing just one run off three hits over six innings. Since the start of July Keuchel has given up just 11 runs over 45.2 frames, posting an elite 1.97 ERA in that span. The pick: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. No upsets today. Keuchel started the 2018 campaign off very slowly, but he’s quietly turned the corner over the last month and a half and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue that progression with another gem here. Lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros. |
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08-11-18 | Fever v. Aces -9.5 | Top | 74-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I played against the Aces in their home loss to Minnesota on Thursday, but I think Las Vegas offers great value to bounce back (ATS) at home on Saturday night. These teams have played twice this year and Las Vegas has won both times and while I do always take the “revenge angle” into account when doing my handicapping, I don’t think it’s going to apply here. The teams: Indiana is just plain terrible, the worst team in the league. After a short two-game win streak, the Fever came back down to Earth in a 94-79 loss to Seattle at home on Tuesday. Indiana is in action at Phoenix on Friday night as well, so clearly the visitors come in with “heavy legs” as well. Las Vegas has lost five straight and it’ll be eager to break that slide. Note that the Aces don’t play again until Wednesday as well, so we can absolutely expect a full focused effort from the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a three or more straight unbeaten streak. Lay the points. |
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08-11-18 | Vikings v. Broncos +1 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX pre-season, I don’t talk about what I think the teams will do over the upcoming campaign, or what they did over the off-season. If you want to get up to date information about that, there are plenty of other better places to do that. I’m here to simply let you know why this team of back-ups and wanna-be’s is going to win this meaningless Week 1 NFLX contest. In Week 2, I’ll touch on what each side did in Week 1. Reasoning: Kirk Cousins comes over to Minnesota, but he’ll see limited to no time here. He’s working under a new offensive co-ordinator anyways, so immediate success seems a stretch at this point to me. The Vikes’ strength last year was on the defensive side, but none of the starters is expected to suit up today. Even though it’s Week 1 of the pre-season, I think this one “means” a lot more to the Broncos. Case Keenum is the new man under center for Denver after a better than expected job in Minnesota. Denver is admittedly a work in process, but this is Week 1 of the pre-season. I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
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08-10-18 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX season, I don’t give out season previews/predictions or give an update of what team’s did over the offseason. In Week 1 I simply give out a reason on why I think the back-ups and wannabe’s will win this contest. Reasoning: The Lions will be playing backup Jake Rudock in this one. He completed 37 of 56 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and a pick in the pre-season last year. This is a big game for Oakland’s new coach Jon Gruden, who has blown up a lot of his team after last year’s disappointing season. Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four against the Raiders and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright, straight-up upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions. |
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08-10-18 | Sun v. Sky +10 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Sky after Connecticut hammered them 110-72 on their own floor earlier in the season. It’s also the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. While I’m not predicting an outright victory, I do think that the Sun will “look past” their lowly opponent today and I like the Sky to sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. The teams: The Sun are primed for a letdown after clinching a playoff spot with a victory over the Wings on Wednesday. It was Connecticut’s fifth straight victory. The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 14.4 points, while Jasmine Thomas added 4.6 assists. The Sky won’t be playing in the post-season, but they won’t be going down without a fight here after back-to-back losses. Chicago is led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 8.4 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Connecticut is already just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a three-games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS In its last four in trying to revenge an “in season” setback to an opponent. Grab the points, play on the Sky. |
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08-09-18 | Lynx -3 v. Aces | Top | 89-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this season already and each has won on the others floor. I think that trend continues here, as I like Minnesota to at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. The teams: Minnesota broke a three-game slide with a victory at Chicago on Tuesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.8 points per game, with Danielle Robinson adding 3.4 assists. Sylvia Fowles leads the nightly charge on the glass with 11.6 boards. Las Vegas has lost three straight, most recently getting hammered 109-100 at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.4 points and 8.3 boards per game, while Kelsey Plum adds 3.9 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its last contest, while Las Vegas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU losses. Play on the Lynx |
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08-09-18 | Colts +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
incorrectly entered play. please disregard. |
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08-09-18 | Panthers v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Buffalo has three QB’s who are all fighting for the No. 1 QB position in the preseason (AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen.) Buffalo improved itself on defense in the offseason as well. Carolina has injuries to its defense though including Julius Peppers and Ross Cockrell. Lay the points. |
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08-09-18 | Steelers +3 v. Eagles | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Philadelphia won the Super Bowl and it’ll be out to prove the pundits wrong that it was a “fluke.” But Pittsburgh has a lot to prove as well this season. This is a big year for both teams, but this is a truly meaningless contest to open the preseason for each. Look for a spirited battle between these two in-state rivals and grab as many points as you can. |
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08-09-18 | Bears v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: The Bears fought valiantly in the Hall Of Fame Game last Thursday and while they covered for bettors, they came up short in the end. They’ll be feeling pretty good about that effort, but I think the back-to-back road games aren’t doing them any favors this week. The Bengals were a disaster last year and this is a make or break campaign for many involved in the organization. Even though it’s the back-ups and wannabe’s for the most part playing tonight, clearly the team will be out to leave a good impression in front of the home town crowd to kick off the 2018/19 season. Note as well that Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. Lay the points. |
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08-08-18 | Sparks v. Liberty +8.5 | Top | 82-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this year and each has won its home floor. New York took the first game 81-75, before LA won 80-54 in the the most recent. I think this trend carries over in this one as I like the Liberty to battle tough and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The teams: After back-to-back wins and with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, this one sets up as a classic “look-ahead” spot for the visitors in my professional opinion. LA is led by Candace Parker with 18.1 points and 7.9 boards per game, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.4 assists. No need to question New York’s focus today after seven straight losses, most recently a 96-80 setback to Seattle. The Liberty don’t play again until Sunday either, so I’m fully expecting a concerted effort here from the home side in this one. New York is led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after six or more SU losses. Desperation leads the Liberty to a solid cover on Wednesday. |
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08-06-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I like Matt Boyd and the Tigers to battle tough and to keep this one close enough to at the very least, escape with a cover with the extra 1.5 runs. The home side sends Nick Tropeano to the hill. The pitchers: Boyd is so far 6-9 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Over his last 19 frames of work he’s allowed just three earned runs. Tropeano is so far 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the light-hitting Rays on Wednesday. Tropeano labored from the start by throwing only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes. The pick: Tropeano has been a disaster at home as well with the 1-3, 5.46 ERA record this season. I think Boyd carries over his considerable momentum here, while recent form displayed by Tropeano points to another long night for the right-hander. Play on the Tigers on the “run line.” |
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08-06-18 | Storm v. Liberty +9 | Top | 96-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for New York after it fell 77-62 to the Storm at home earlier in the season. Seattle though comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight victories, while also getting caught “looking ahead” to its game at Indiana tomorrow afternoon. New York though will be taking nothing for granted after six straight losses. The teams: Seattle is led by Breanna Stewart with 22.5 points and 8.1 boards per game, while Sue Bird adds 7.4 assists. The Liberty are led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game, while Brittany Boyd adds 5.3 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is 7-3 in its last ten after four or more consecutive SU losses. No need to over think this one, as I think a revenge minded and determined Liberty team catches the Storm “off guard.” Play on New York. |
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08-05-18 | Dream +5 v. Lynx | Top | 86-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: They Lynx come in off an 85-75 setback at Seattle on Friday night and I think they’re primed for another letdown here as well. These teams have played each other twice this year and so far they’re 1-1. The teams: Atlanta has won nine of its last ten, most recently an 89-74 victory at home over Chicago on Friday. The Dream are led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 points, while Renee Montgomery averages 3.4 assists. Jessica Breland leads the nightly charge on the glass with 8.1 boards per game. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.4 PPG, while Danielle Robison directs the point with 3.2 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way on the glass with 11.7 boards per game. The pick: The Lynx return home after losing two straight on the road. Minnesota is struggling to find offensive consistency right now and I think the Dream can smell the blood in the water. I look for Atlanta to leave town with a comfortable ATS cover tonight. |
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08-04-18 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Smith is so far 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Smith has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. To go along with his poor ERA, note that he also owns a shoddy 1.50 WHIP. Berrios is so far 10-8 with a 3.56 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Over 139 frames of work this year Berrios owns the 3.56 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, while also amassing 142 strikeouts. The pick: Berrios has been “lights out” at home as well with a 7-2, 2.99 ERA record. Smith is in over his head here. Berrios has been far from perfect this season, but he’ll be feeling confident in friendly confines and that makes this a price that I can live with paying. Lay the price, play on the Twins. |
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08-02-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Sparks are 2-1. LA won 77-76 in Minnesota in the first one, 77-69 at home in the second one, before then falling 83-72 in Minnesota in the latest on July 5th. Minnesota has won three straight and with a tough one on the road in Seattle tomorrow night, the Lynx get caught looking ahead here in my opinion. The Sparks on the other hand have lost two of three and have had a night off to absorb an 81-71 loss to the Dream on Tuesday. The teams: The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.2 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the point with 3.3 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the glass with 11.7 board a game. The Sparks are led by Candace Parker with 18 PPG, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.3 assists per night. Parker also leads the rebound department with 7.5 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is already just 5-8 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in its previous contest, while LA is already 6-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on the Sparks. |
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08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played on Thursday, August 2nd at 8:00 PM EST at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who comes over as the former offensive coordinator of the KC Chiefs. Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in three years and if Joe Flacco can’t step up, surely there’s going to be some major changes upcoming for the Ravens. The teams: We’re going to see a battle for backup QB in Chicago during the preseason between Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray, with Mitchell Trubisky having already secured the starters position. There’s talent at receiver as well in Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. Baltimore used its No. 1 draft pick to grab QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens also have Robert Griffin III as another backup. The Ravens also have a lot of new faces in the receiver position, including Michael Crabtree and Willie Sneed. The defense should be a strength of the team, but don’t expect to see any starters playing on Opening night. The pick: For arguments sakes, let’s call every position on every line on both sides of the ball a “wash” in this game, except at QB, which we’ll look at here subjectively. If this was Trubisky going against Flacco, we’d look at this one differently, but the experience that the Ravens’ backup QB’s bring to the table will turn out to be the difference in my opinion. Daniel and Bray lack experience, while RG III and the gifted Lamar Jackson clearly have the advantage in that department. And for me, that’s the difference make in this matchup. Play on Baltimore. |
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08-01-18 | Mercury +1.5 v. Aces | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played each other three times this year and so far Phoenix has gone 2-1, winning 72-66 in the first first one, 92-80 on the road in the second one, before then falling 85-82 in the most recent at home back on the 19th. The teams: The Mercury are the deeper and more experienced team led by Diana Taurasi with 20.3 PPG, She also leads the team in assists with 4.8 per night. It’s Brittney Griner though who controls the glass with 7.2 per game. The Aces are led by 20 points a night by A’ ja Wilson, while Kelsey Plum directs the show with 3.4 assists per game. Wilson also leads the charge on the glass with 8.6 per night. The pick: The Aces come in off back-to-back wins and have a date in the Nation’s capital on Friday night. I think the home side comes in complacent gets caught “looking ahead” here. Phoenix on the other hand comes in desperate this week. After its game against Seattle at home on Tuesday night, I think the Phoenix will catch Las Vegas off guard on Wednesday. Grab the points, play on the Mercury. |
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07-29-18 | Twins +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -165 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors send ace Jose Berrios to the hill, while the home side goes with the newly acquired Nate Eovaldi. The pitchers: Berrios is so far 10-7 with a 3.48 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings while striking out nine in a win over the Jays on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, note that he also owns a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 136 strikeouts over 134.1 frames of work. Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Over ten starts for Tampa this season he’s posted a 4.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 53 strikeouts over 57 frames of work. The pick: Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his limited time this season and he certainly draws a tough matchup in his first start for his new team. Berrios on the other hand is getting stronger as the season has progressed and I look for that trend to carry over here. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the 1.5 runs. |
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07-28-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -170 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the price in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Ariel Jurado, while the home side goes with ace Justin Verlander. The pitchers: Jurado is so far 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Jurado is filing the void left by Cole Hamels, so his spot in the rotation may come down to this single outing for the next while. In his one other appearance in the majors this season he was blown up on the road. Verlander is so far 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Angels on Saturday, giving up five hits, walking two and striking out 11. Verlander had actually been quite pedestrian over three previous starts, so the hard-throwing right-hander will now look to build off this latest effort (note that he’s 8-2 with a tiny 1.81 ERA on the road though.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is 29-43 (-9.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is 44-21 (+9.4 units) against right-handed starters. This one has “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” written all over it. Play on the Astros on the run-line. |
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07-27-18 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
analysis soonThe set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the Diamondbacks on the “run-line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Luis Perdomo. The pitchers: Greinke is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. Greinke most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings while striking out 13 and walking one in a win over Colorado on Sunday. Note that it was the sixth straight start in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs. Perdomo is so far 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Perdomo is so far 0-4 with an 11.29 ERA at home this year. The pick: Perdomo has shown nothing whatsoever to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” and regain his form. In fact, the right-hander will likely be moved back to the bullpen shortly when others become healthy. Greinke on the other hand has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and I look for that trend to carry over here with another dominant performance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.” |
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the defending champs on the “run line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors go with Yovani Gallardo, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Gallardo is so far 4-1 with a 7.18 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Tribe on Sunday, going six scoreless, striking out one and walking four. I’ll point out though that it was the first start this year that Gallardo has given up less than three earned runs. To go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a terrible 21:17 K/BB spanning 36.1 innings. Keuchel is so far 8-8 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over his last four starts Kuechel is now 4-0 and he’s posted 18 strikeouts in the process. The pick: Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent all year and after his latest gem, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent to me. Keuchel on the other hand has finally “found his groove” and I look for the veteran to continue his progression. Lay the 1.5 runs, play the Astros on the “run line.” |
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07-27-18 | Twins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the hard-hitting home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn, while the Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale. The pitchers: Lynn is so far 7-8 with a 5.23 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off three hits with six walks over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Lynn has struggled in July, posting a 7.1 BB/9 and a 7.13 ERA spanning just 17.2 frames of work. Sale is so far 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Sunday, striking out nine in the process. Sale has now given up just five runs over his last 54 frames, to go along with 87 strikeouts. His 2.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 197:31 K/BB over 135 frames lead the league in most categories. The pick: Lynn’s been a disaster overall this season and he’s seemingly gotten worse as it has worn on. It’s been the exact opposite for Sale though, who has gotten stronger with each start. I look for those trends to carry over here. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the Red Sox on the “run line.” |
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07-25-18 | White Sox v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The talent gap on the mound is big. Their is also a big discrepancy at the plate as well. Both those factors combine to make the home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs. The pitchers: Shields is so far 4-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Shields earned a loss in his first start back after the break, giving up two runs over seven innings in a setback to the Mariners on Friday. Shields has been on a decent run of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA on the road. Skaggs is so far 7-6 with a 2.68 ERA. Skaggs gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Over his last seven trips to the hill he’s posted six quality efforts and to go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports a 1.22 WHIP and impressive 106:31 K/BB over 104 innings this season The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 6-16 (-4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while LA is 7-1 (+5.1 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Angels. |
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07-24-18 | Dream +4 v. Sparks | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for the Dream after they fell 72-64 in LA earlier in the season. This is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league. It also features two of the best players in Tiffany Hayes and Candace Parker. The teams: The Dream are 15-9 and in second place. They’ll be eager to avenge the earlier loss and to stay ahead of the No. 3 Sparks. Atlanta comes in on top form, having won seven straight, while LA has been shaky with a 4-6 record over its last ten. Atlanta most recently layed the smack down in Seattle with an 87-74 win. Elizabeth Williams had 17 points for the Dream in that one.. The Sparks got back on track with a win over the Chicago Sky in their latest action. Parker had 19 points in that one, while Nneka Ogwumike had 18 points and 11 boards. The pick: As mentioned off the top, this is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league, as the Sparks allow 77.4 PPG, while the Dream allow 78.9. But LA has struggled with offensive consistency over the last month, while Atlanta is surging right now, playing with complete chemistry. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the visitors tonight. Play on Atlanta. |
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07-24-18 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a very fair trade off (laying the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs.) The visitors go with Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks. The teams: Buchholz is so far 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He landed on the ten-day DL prior to the All Star Game, but he’s been given the green light to proceed with his bounce back season, coming into this one with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 31:7 K/BB over 38.2 innings. Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA. Hendricks opened the second half with a no-decision against the Cardinals on Thursday, allowing three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings. So far he’s already been shelled for a career-high 18 homers this season and note that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on Arizona on the “run line.” |
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07-23-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 7-0 | Push | 0 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh won big in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon, while the Indians were on the road in Texas. Clearly Cleveland has the advantage on the mound with ace Corey Kluber, but I think the Pirates can carry their momentum over from yesterday’s convincing victory and keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the spread once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams. The pitchers: Williams is so far 7-7 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d go five scoreless against the Nationals. I think Williams benefits here in the AL format and also with the extra time off because of the break. Kluber is so far 12-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Kluber was forced to miss the All Star game because of an injection in his knee. Kluber was then shut-down for a week, but he’s been cleared to go here. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Pittsburgh is a red hot 10-2 (+6.8 units) this year in all inter-league games, while Cleveland is just 18-25 (-14.9 units) against clubs with winning records. Look for the Bucs to keep the good times rolling with a competitive effort in the opener of this inter-league series, but grab the extra run-and-a-half as insurance. |
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07-21-18 | Winnipeg -2 v. Toronto | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg will be eager to get back on track here after falling 20-17 at BC last weekend, a game in which it held a 17-0 half-time lead. The Blue Bombers open a home and home set against an Argos team which just finished splitting a home and home series with the Eskimos. The teams: Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols threw three second half INT’s last weekend and his team would fall to a disappointing 2-3 on the season. RB Andrew Harris though was a bright spot with 139 yards on the ground. Harris now leads the league with 449 rushing yards over five games. The Argos go with QB James Franklin again, as he makes his third start in place of the injured Ricky Ray (lost for the season.) Last week Franklin looked to receiver SJ Green, who had 110 yards on ten catches last weekend. Previous to that though Green had just 105 yards total over three games to open the season. RB James Wilder Jr. looked pathetic last week though with just 26 yards of offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, wile Toronto is a terrible 11-17 ATS in its last 28 when playing the role of underdog. I think Nichols bounces back, while all sins point to Franklin and company struggling again. Lay the points, play on the Bombers. |
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07-20-18 | Wings v. Sky +6.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Liz Cambage scored a WNBA best 53 points in the Dallas Wings’ victory last Tuesday, but they’re in action on Thursday night against a tough Washington Mystics side at home. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Chicago will look to take advantage and to also avenge an earlier loss to the Wings. The teams: Dallas is not surprisingly led by Cambage with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way on the glass with 9.2 boards per night. The Sky are led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 7.6 assists. Cheyenne Parker chips in 6.3 boards per game. The pick: Clearly Dallas will be tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. Chicago though comes in rested and focused and take it for what you will, but note that the Sky are 16-8 ATS in their last 24 in trying to revenge an “in season” SU loss to an opponent in which it gave up 100 or more points in. A great situational play on the Chicago Sky. |
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07-19-18 | Mystics +4 v. Wings | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Wings’ Liz Cambage just broke the WNBA record with 53 points in her team’s 104-87 win over New York. Cambage is only one player, but after such a momentous occasion, I believe the entire team suffers a mental letdown here. These teams haven’t played yet this year, as this marks the first of three between them. Washington and Elena Delle Donne will look to take advantage. The teams: Delle Donne leads the Mystics with 20.6 PPG, while Natasha Cloud adds 4.5 assists. Delle Donne is also the leader on the boards with 6.9 per game. Cambage leads the way offensively for the Wings with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way with 9.2 boards per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after being held to 80 points or less in its previous contest (fell 80-77 to open its five-game road trip), while Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 100 points or more. With a game tomorrow night in Chicago, I think the Mystics also get caught “looking ahead” in this one. Play on Washington. |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan +11.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders are 2-2 and the Ti-Cats are also 2-2. Hamilton doesn’t have a QB controversy on its hands right now, with Jeremiah Masoli under center. Saskatchewan has issues at the QB position however, with Brandon Bridges seeing time for an injured Zach Collaros this year. Regardless of that fact though, I believe the visitors will keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest. The teams: Note that the Riders have won five of their last seven road games outright. Bridges will be leaning heavily on his run game here, a unit which has so far averaged 103.8 YPG. Jerome Messam so far has 110 yards on 32 carries. Defensively though Saskatchewan has been tough, allowing 23.8 points and 366 yards per game. Keep your eyes on Derrick Moncrief, who leads the teams with 20 tackles thus far. Masoli is so far completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four INT’s though. The ground game is averaging 114.8 YPG, led by Mercer Timmis, who has 175 yards and four touchdowns already. Hamilton has also been strong on the defensive side this year, allowing an average of 21 points and 338.8 YPG. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan is 5-2 in is last seven following its bye week, while Hamilton is still only 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Roughriders have won four straight in this series and while I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset here or anything like that, as I stated off the top, I do believe that everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on Saskatchewan. |
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07-19-18 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half. The visitors go with Carlos Martinez and the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks. The pitchers: Martinez is so far 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA. He most recently beat the Giants, giving up one run off six hits over seven innings while striking out three. It was Martinez’s third straight victory and his ninth quality start of the season. After a small shaky stretch, Martinez is back on track across the board and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.57 ERA record on the road. Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings in a no-decision against San Francisco. Starts like that though were few and far between over the first half for Hendricks, who has just two quality efforts out of his last nine trips to the hill. The pick: Take it for what you will, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 15-17 in its last 32 when playing with three or more days of rest. Martinez comes in as the much more consistent hurler and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t keep that momentum rolling with extra time off. Hendricks comes off a strong start, but I believe his inconsistencies come back to haunt him again. Play on St. Louis on the run-line. |
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07-18-18 | Fever v. Lynx -14.5 | Top | 65-89 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Home floor advantage has meant little so far in the season series between these clubs, with the Fever winning 71-59 at Minnesota, before the Lynx responding with an 87-65 win at Indiana a week later. After beating the Fever on July 11th, Minnesota has since dropped two straight home games. The Fever though are in a complete “free fall” right now, having dropped four in a row. The teams: Indiana is led by Kelsey Mitchell with 13.5 PPG, while Erica Wheeler dishes out 4 assists per night. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 6.8 per night. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen added 3.6 assists. Sylvia Fowles controls the boards with 11.9 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a three games or more SU winless streak, while Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. The Fever get caught “looking ahead” here to their West coast game on Friday night at the Sparks and the Lynx take full advantage and get back on track with a big effort in the final game of their current three-game home stand. Lay the points. |
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07-17-18 | Dream v. Sun -8 | Top | 86-83 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two red hot teams collide on Tuesday night. The Atlanta Dream have won four straight, while the Connecticut Sun have won two in a row. Ultimately I believe that the home court advantage will prove to be the difference maker in this one. The teams: The Dream come in having won four straight. Atlanta is led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 PPG, while Alex Bentley dishes out 4.3 assists per night. Jessica Breland leads the charge on the boards with 8.2 a night. The Sun have won back-to-back games, most recently 83-64 on the road in Minnesota (I had Connecticut in that one) and they are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15 points per night, while Alyssa Thomas adds 4.5 assists per game. Thomas also leads the way on the boards with 9.4 per night. The pick: These teams are very familiar with each other and as I mentioned off the top, I do indeed believe that “home court” will play a significant role in the outcome of this one, as note that the Sun smashed the Dream 74-58 at home in the first meeting between the clubs this year, before Atlanta then won both subsequent home games, 82-77 and 75-70. With a chance for revenge after back-to-back losses in this series, I look for Connecticut to build off its recent win skein, while everything does definitely point to a letdown finally for the Dream after their recent run of success. Play on the Sun. |
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07-15-18 | Sun +4 v. Lynx | Top | 83-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The last time these teams played, the Sun smashed the Lynx 89-75. I’m expecting another decisive affair here as well. Connecticut comes in ranked third in the East with an 11-10 record, while Minnesota is ranked fifth in the West with a 12-9 record. The teams: The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15.7 PPG, while Alyssa Thomas directs the show with 4.7 assists a night. Thomas also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 9.7 per game. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.6 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen chips in 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles contributes with 12 board per game. The pick: The Sun broke a three-game slide with a 91-87 win over Phoenix on Friday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over at home here as well. The Lynx come in off a deflating 85-77 home loss to Las Vegas and I believe they’re primed for another letdown here also. Play on Connecticut. |
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07-15-18 | Croatia +0.5 v. France | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: France comes in off a 1-0 regulation win over Belgium, while Croatia knocked off host Russia in a shootout to advance. France has gotten better as this tournament has worn on, but Croatia has proven itself to be a “hard out.” Suffice it to say, I’m expecting nothing less here either. The French may be the more talented team on paper, but the Croatian’s have the bigger “heart.” I predict this one will see extra time or the shootout. The teams: Croatia’s defense will be focused on slowing down French teenage phenom Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals so far. Antoine Greizmann continues to be a focal point for France as well, as he has 12 goals and eight assists over his last 20 games for his country. Luka Modric is one of three Croatian’s with two goals in this tournament. Ivan Rakitic has helped his team in the knockout round, as he has two crucial goals in both shoot-out victories. The pick: France may have never lost to Croatia in its history, but I think its over-confidence will prove its undoing here. The English found out the hard way that this Croatian team is no joke and while the French may in fact go on to win the title, I’m banking on it being anything but “easy.” Play on Croatia +0.5 goal. |
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07-14-18 | Winnipeg v. BC +4.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I look for the hungry home side to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. In fact, it’s an “immediate revenge” scenario after BC lost 41-19 in Winnipeg last weekend. BC has struggled against Winnipeg for a couple of years now, but I expect that trend to finally start going the other way this weekend. The teams: Winnipeg got a big game defensively from LB Adam Bighill, who faced his former team for the first time last week as he’d post six tackles and make two interceptions. QB Matt Nichols was pretty mediocre though, going 16 of 27 for 162 yards. BC comes in focused, as it comes in off back-to-back losses, allowing 82 points in the process. The Lions struggled on both sides of the ball last week, but desperation breeds motivation in my opinion. Both the struggling Jon Jennings and the injured Travis Lulay took snaps in practice this week. The pick: Note that the Blue Bombers are interestingly just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 points or more in their previous contest. I’m banking on BC bouncing back and fighting for its life in this revenge spot in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points. |
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07-13-18 | Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto was down starting QB Ricky Ray and it was a 3.5 point underdog at home to these very Eskimos last week and the winless Argos would prevail outright with the 20-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be pay-back time in a big way in Alberta on Friday night. The teams: The 20 points scored by the Argos was the most they’ve put up so far this year and the 17 points allowed was the least. QB James Franklin was an efficient 16 of 22 for 217 yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Declan Cross caught the winning TD pass with three minutes to play. RB James Wilder Jr. had 120 rushing yards and a score as well. The Eskimo’s looked “out of sorts” from the “get go” last week, but I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Edmonton to get back on track. QB Mike Reilly was still decent in the setback, going 28 of 40 for 370 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Reilly leads the league in passing with 1,390 yards and seven major scores. 12 penalties for 126 yards was just too much for Edmonton to overcome in the end though. The pick: Neither team has been very good for bettors over the last few seasons, but I think the difference will be the immediate “revenge factor.” Edmonton hurt itself with sloppy and undisciplined play last week and I have a hard time seeing the home side not coming in completely focused here as it looks to atone for its sub-par effort. Toronto backup Franklin looked decent at home last weekend, but I think he’ll stumble in this hostile environment. Everything points to a blowout, lay the points. |
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07-13-18 | Aces +10 v. Lynx | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is 12-8, but it still sits just fourth in the competitive Western Conference. After a slow start the Las Vegas Aces have looked a bit better of late, but they are still in last place in the West with a 9-12 record. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor though and I think it’ll ultimately prove to be the difference maker here. The teams: Las Vegas lost at home to Minnesota 88-73 back on June 24th. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.6 PPG, while Kelsey Plum runs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Wilson also leads the nightly charge on the boards with 8.5 a game. Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 19 PPG, while Danielle Robinson dishes out 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way in the rebounding department 11.8 per game. The pick: The Aces have been quietly dominating, coming into this one having won three straight, most recently a blowout 98-74 victory over Chicago. After a seven-game unbeaten streak, Minnesota has split its last four games, most recently coming off an 87-65 win over Indiana. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the Aces’ improvement though and combined with the very real “revenge factor,” all signs point to the points as the correct call. Play on Las Vegas. |
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07-12-18 | Calgary -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary comes in off its bye and I look for it to continue its unbeaten 3-0 start to the 2018 campaign with another convincing victory here. These teams met in Calgary in Week 3 and the Stamps prevailed 24-14 and suffice it to say, I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards tonight. The teams: Bo Levi Mitchell had 251 yards and two touchdowns, while Don Jackson had 84 yards a TD for Calgary in Week 3 week over Ottawa. Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris though had just 135 yards and pick before being pulled. Mitchell so far has 872 yards and six TD’s this season, while Jackson already has 294 yards rushing. Harris bounced back last week in Ottawa’s 28-18 win at Montreal with 342 yards and three TD’s, but clearly he’s going to have a much more difficult time tonight against the league’s No. 1 defense, a unit which has given up just 34 points over three games thus far. The pick: Calgary is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday night games, performing well on the “short week” (despite coming off its bye), while Ottawa is a terrible 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a victory. Expect a rested and focused Calgary to pull away for the comfortable win/cover as the game comes down the stretch. |
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07-11-18 | England v. Croatia +0.25 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m predicting that this will be decided in extra time or penalties. England is the favorite to win this match straight-up, but I expect Croatia to give it everything it can handle. England advanced by beating Colombia in a shootout and then by beating Sweden 2-0, while Croatia needed a shootout to advance past the host country. The teams: Croatia got a big contribution from Domagoj Vida, who scored his team’s second goal in the quarter-final and who also netted one in the shootout in the win over Russia. Luka Modric had a big game overall in the win as well, as he’d go on to set up the second goal. The Croatian’s have won two straight in shootout, proving that they’re anything but an “easy out.” Harry Kane failed to score for the first time in seven matches for England last time out, but he still leads the Golden Boot with six scores. The English are deep and talented, as evidenced by their 2-0 win over Sweden, dominating on both ends of the pitch throughout. England has lost just once out of its last 15 matches, but I think it’s going to have its hands full here. The pick: Note that Croatia is unbeaten in is last six matches, with four outright wins and two penalty shoot-out victories. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open offensive “shootout.” Play on Croatia +1/4 goal. |
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07-11-18 | Lynx -10.5 v. Fever | Top | 87-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana is 2-17, while Minnesota is 11-8. One of Indiana’s two victories occurred against these very Lynx (71-59). Minnesota comes in off a 77-63 loss to Chicago, but with a date at home against bottom feeder Las Vegas on Friday, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent again. The teams: Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 18.9 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the boards with 11.9 per game. The Fever are led by Kelsey Mitchell with 14.4 PPG, while Erica Wheeler adds 3.9 assists. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 7.2 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after allowing 90 points or more (just lost 90-63 to Dallas.) I’m banking on the Lynx getting caught looking ahead. Play on Indiana. |
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07-07-18 | Edmonton -3 v. Toronto | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto won the 2017 Grey Cup in a stunning upset of the Calgary Stampeders, but so far the team has looked horrible in 2018 with an 0-2 start. Edmonton will look to take advantage here now and build off its 41-22 home win over the Lions last week. The teams: CJ Gable had a career day rushing for Edmonton last week, going for 165 yards on 23 carries, while also adding a TD for the Esks. Mike Reilly was 22 of 30 for 326 yards and three major scores, while also rushing for a TD. WR D’Haquille Williams had six catches for 129 yards. Toronto has so far managed just 26 points on the season and with starting QB Ricky Ray out for the season with a neck injury (career ending?) James Franklin is suddenly being thrust into a very difficult situation. Franklin was an unremarkable 8 of 13 for 65 yards and a rushing score in relief of Ray last week. The pick: Note that Edmonton has covered in five of its past six road games. Note that Toronto is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against clubs with winning records. The injury to Ray is devastating for an Argo’s team which was already struggling across the board. I think Reilly and company come in and calmly conduct their business and take full advantage of this favorable situation. Lay the points. |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa lost 24-14 in Calgary last week and it’ll be eager to return to the winners circle in this favorable matchup on Friday night. Montreal was a 10.5 point home underdog to Saskatchewan last weekend and it pulled off the huge 23-17 outright upset. Can anyone say “letdown spot” in Week 4? The teams: Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris struggled against Calgary’s elite defense, going 13 of 29 for 135 yards and an INT. The only bright spot on offense was RB William Powell, who had 113 yards on the day. And while the offense looked terrible overall, the defense was pretty good, forcing three turnovers in the end. Montreal’s defense looked great last week as well, holding the Roughriders to 278 total yards. The offense though wasn’t great, with just 264 yards. QB Jeff Mathews was 8 of 12 for 98 yards. The pick: Ottawa though has covered five straight in Montreal and I think everything points to that strong trend continuing here. Also note that the Redblacks have covered their last four following a loss. The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” Everything points to a blowout from start to finish in this one in my opinion, play on Ottawa. |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hamilton Tigercats went 1-1 on a season opening road trip and then returned home for a convincing 31-17 victory over Winnipeg in Week 3. The Roughriders will be hungry here though, as they come in sitting at just 1-2 and off a humbling 27-13 loss to lowly Montreal as a 10-point fav last time out. The teams: Saskatchewan was 2-0 in this series last year, but the Roughriders clearly can’t take anything for granted against this much improved Hamilton team. Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli had 369 yards an a TD last week for the Ti-Cats and the defense held the Bombers to just 280 yards. The run game also looked decent as Mercer Timmis had two short TD runs. QB Brandon Bridge had to start in place of the injured Zach Collaros last week for Saskatchewan and while he’d stumble in that one, I think he’ll be much more competitive this time around. The pick: With a game to make adjustments after losing Collaros, I think Winnipeg will look a lot better this week. This is Hamilton’s third road game in the first four weeks and after playing at such a high level, including posting back to back SU/ATS victories, everything finally points to a letdown in my opinion (note that Hamilton is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two more SU wins, while Saskatchewan is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses.) Grab as many points as you can, play on the Roughriders. |
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07-05-18 | Liberty +9.5 v. Mystics | Top | 67-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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07-03-18 | Fever +16 v. Lynx | Top | 71-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the hungry visiting side (just 1-16 on the year after falling 87-83 to Atlanta on Sunday) offers great value to come in under the radar to post a solid cover in this spot. The teams: Minnesota comes in complacent as well after seven straight victories. Indiana will look to take advantage and push the pace of this one. Note that Fever rookie forward Victoria Vivians posted a career high 27 points in Indiana’s latest setback: "The best thing we can do is stick together," Vivians said after the loss to Atlanta. "We depend on each other for everything. I feel like the best thing we can do is put our heads all in together and just be together through the whole process." The pick: The defending champs are on “cruise control” now with seven straight victories. Minnesota most recently held for a 76-72 win over Dallas, led by 26 points from Maya Moore. But with the LA Sparks, the Lynx’ most fiercest rival coming to town on Thursday, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “look ahead” spot as well for the home side. While I’m not predicting the straight up upset, the stage is definitely set for a competitive battle. So grab the points! Play on the Fever. |
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06-30-18 | Montreal +11.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 106 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Als are coming off an embarrassing home loss and they’ll be eager to quickly erase that memory. They now perhaps thankfully hit the road for a matchup against an equally as hungry Roughriders side in Saskatchewan. Montreal is 0-2 to open the season, while Saskatchewan is 1-1. The teams: Montreal will be eager to avoid its first 0-3 start since the 1996 season. QB Drew Willy will be expected to step up here. In all fairness though, he hasn’t been terrible over the first two games, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 392 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The combination of Ernest Jackson and Chris Williams has been decent with 196 receiving yards. The ground game has been poor with 72 yards per game, but the major problem has been on the defensive side, so far allowing 39 points and 444 yards per game. Riders’ QB Zach Collaros hasn’t been great in the early going, with 309 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. The ground game has been decent with 102.5 yards per game average. The defense though has been nothing special, allowing 29.5 points and 375 yards per game. The pick: It’s not going to be a pretty season for the Als, but they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to try and score an upset against. Saskatchewan has looked poor overall and while I’m not in fact going to predict an outright victory, I do think that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points, play on the Alouettes. |
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06-29-18 | Winnipeg +4.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -109 | 80 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tigercats come in with identical 1-1 records. The Blue Bombers though have won six of their last eight road games and while I would of course not be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. The teams: Winnipeg is led by QB Chris Streveler, who has 424 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. His favorite targets have been Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler, who have combined for 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The ground game has been dominant as well, averaging 191 yards per contest thus far, with Andrew Harris leading the charge with 135 on 29 carries. The defense hasn’t been shabby either, allowing 21.5 points and 341 yards per game. Hamilton has lost six of its last eight home games. QB Jeremiah Masoli so far has 676 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions over the first two games. Jalen Saunders and Luke Tasker have combined for 325 receiving yards and two major scores. Defensively the Ti-Cats are allowing 24.5 points and 388.5 yards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Hamilton is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 at home. After back-to-back road games to open the season, I think Hamilton suffers a predictable letdown here, leaving the back door open for the hungry visitors. Play on the Blue Bombers. |
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06-26-18 | Storm +6 v. Lynx | Top | 79-91 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is the defending champ, but it comes into this one sitting at 7-6. The Lynx traded forward Natasha Howard to the Storm in the preseason and it’s clearly taken a toll on their chemistry to open the 2018 campaign. The Storm are 10-4 and they come in on a four-game win streak. Suffice it to say, I think Seattle can smell the blood in the water. The teams: Howard is expected to get her ring before the start of this game and then I’m expecting her to bring the thunder against her former team. Howard played in all 34 games the past two season with Minnesota, a key part in getting the Lynx to a pair of trips to the WNBA Finals. Howard is so far averaging 14.1 points, 6.8 boards and 1.9 blocks in 26.8 minutes for Seattle. Other stand out players include Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd. The Lynx come in off an 88-73 win over lowly Las Vegas on Sunday, led by 23 points from Maya Moore. Sylvia Fowles added 20 points and ten boards. The pick: Note though that Seattle has been at its best on the road for bettors this season with a strong 4-1 ATS record. Conversely, Minnesota has been downright horrible in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-4 ATS record. I’m banking on Howard and the Storm carrying over their momentum here. |
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06-22-18 | Sparks -3.5 v. Wings | Top | 72-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Sparks are on the road at College Park Center to take on the Dallas Wings in this one. LA is 9-2 so far, good enough for second place in the Western Conference. Dallas is so far 5-5, sitting in fifth in the Western Conference. The teams: LA averages 79.9 PPG and it allows 73.7. Note that the Sparks come in with zero injuries. LA is led by Chelsea Gray with 15.5 PPG, while Nneka Ogwumike averages 16.5 points per night. Dallas averages 82.9 points and it allows 81.0. Note that the Wings have two major injuries as Karima Christmas-Kelly is out for the season with a knee injury, while Theresa Plaisance is out with an ACL tear. Elizabeth Cambage is averaging 19.7 points for Dallas this year. The pick: Dallas has trouble protecting the ball against aggressive defensive teams, turning it over an average of 15.6 times per 100 possessions. And that doesn’t bode well facing the Sparks stingy unit. I think this line should be larger. Play on LA. |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here. The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense. Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles. The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points. |
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06-20-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
\The set-up: The Yanks pulled away for a decisive 7-2 victory in yesterday’s series opener and while the home side may ultimately earn another victory here as well, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mariners go with Felix Hernandez, while the Yankees go with Jonathan Loasiga. The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Hernandez comes in off a strong outing against the Red Sox on Thursday, allowing two earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over seven innings. Hernandez has been strong at home and poor on the road this year, but I’m expecting “The King” to carry over the momentum from his latest outing and challenge his still untested counterpart. Loaisiga is so far 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Loaisiga picked up a win in his major league debut against the Rays on Friday, giving up three hits and four walks over five scoreless. It wan impressive showing, but clearly the book is still out on the right-hander. The pick: The future is bright for Loaisiga, but it’s hard to see the rookie duplicating that performance in back-to-back outings. Hernandez has had plenty of struggles, but I think the veteran will at the very least, match Loaisiga inning for inning. Play the Mariners on the run-line. |
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06-16-18 | Montreal v. BC -6.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal only won three games last year and I think it’ll struggle on the road to open the 2018 campaign. The Lions struggled last year as well with just seven victories, as BC would miss the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Lions though feature depth and veteran leadership which I believe will help the team on Opening night. Everything points to a home side blowout. The teams: Montreal is now led by coach Mike Sherman, former Green Bay head boss. Drew Willy is experienced under center and he has a trio of decent playmakers in BJ Cunningham, Tyrell Sutton and Ernest Jackson. Note though that the defense finished dead last in total points allowed last season and that side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak point. BC missed the playoffs, but it still finished third in the CFL in passing yards a year ago. Top receivers Bryan Burnham, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Jon Jennings are all back to make amends. Like their counterpart today, the main issue for the Lions last season was on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Al’s are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 in BC. I like the Lions to put on an offensive show in front of the home town crowd on Opening weekend as everything points to another road letdown for the still re-building Als. Play on BC. |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton +9.5 v. Calgary | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary is always one of the top teams favored to win the Grey Cup (at least over the last decade.) Hamilton though won’t be rolling over and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do expect the hungry visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough with the big spread. The teams: Hamilton has won just 13 games over the last two seasons, but it got a spark over the last two months with the addition of oft-maligned QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is starting as the backup QB, but the ex Texas A&M pivot will be expected to come in and replace starter Jeremiah Masoli at some point. Returning from last year are the team’s top two receivers in Luke Tasker and Jalen Saunders, a duo which combined for over 2,300 receiving yards and 11 TD’s. The Ti-Cats achilles heel was on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but the return of key players such as Richard Leonard and Larry Dean is expected to help the unit make strides in 2018. Calgary has lost the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons in heart-breaking fashion and while it’ll be coming into the 2018 campaign with a collective “chip on its shoulder,” I think it will in fact come in a bit complacent here against its lowly non-conference opponent. The offense is once again led by Bo Levi Mitchell, who has 19,000 yards and 115 TD’s over four years as a starting QB with the team. The Stamps were the best defensive team in the league last year, allowing 349 total points, while also collecting 50 sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Ti-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, while the Stamps are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. This one has “competitive battle” written all over it. |
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06-14-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories on Wednesday. Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. I’m expecting an all out battle in the opener of this important three-game set and as such, I think laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance is the correct move in this matchup. The Red Sox go with David Price, while the Mariners go with Felix Hernandez. The pitchers: Price is so far 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Price most recently gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Price has been decent of late, but I think he’s going to struggle against the hard-hitting home side. Hernandez is so far 6-5 with a 5.70 ERA. After dominating the Rays over eight scoreless in his previous start, Hernandez predictably came back down to Earth in his next start against the Rays, allowing six runs over three innings on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Hernandez has been much better at home (4.04 ERA) than on the road (7.71) The pick: Both teams have been excellent this season and in my opinion, this one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the 1.5 runs. |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg might be without starting QB Matt Nichols to open the 2018 campaign, but the Blue Bombers won’t be lacking for motivation on Opening Night after Edmonton knocked them out of the Western semi-final last year 39-32. Winnipeg won both regular season meetings a year ago though and I look for the hungry home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread that it’s been afforded. The teams: Edmonton went 12-6 during the regular season in 2017, before then falling to Calgary in the West Final. The Eskimos feature one of the best QB’s in the league in Mike Reilly, who will have to start the season without two of his top targets in Adarius Bowman (went to Winnipeg in the offseason) and Brandon Zylstra (signed by the Minnesota Vikings.) As mentioned above, the Blue Bombers won’t have Nichols under center, meaning that rookie Chris Streveler is “the next man up.” Streveler looked pretty good in two preseason games, going 13 of 19 for 184 yards, two TD’s and an INT. But the Bombers have a bunch of talent on both sides of field, including Bowman, Nic Demski and LB Adam Bighill. In 2015 Bighill was named the CFL’s top Defensive player. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Edmonton is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in June, while the Bombers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against the West. While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright, I’m banking on the home side keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. |
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06-13-18 | Reds v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday’s 5-1 defeat, I look for the Royals to at the very least keep this one close enough into the latter frames to earn the comfortable victory with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle, while the home side goes with Jason Hammel. The pitchers: Mahle is 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA thus far. Most recently Mahle gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday. Mahle has struggled of late, completing just six innings in just five of his 13 starts this year. Mahle has been hit or miss this season, being especially average on the road with a 3-3, 4.49 ERA. Hammel is 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA to this point. Hammel most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Hammel has struggled for most of the season, however he’s now started to turn things around by giving up just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings of work. The pick: The Reds earned the rare road win last night, but they’re still just 12-20 (-3 units on the road). It’s hard to say too many positive things about the Royals, however note that they’re 6-2 in their last eight after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m playing the Royals on the run-line. |
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06-10-18 | Aces +15 v. Mercury | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix Mercury have won four straight, but I think they come out complacent here, giving the advantage to the Las Vegas Aces. Las Vegas won’t be lacking motivation today as it sits at 1-6, while the Mercury come in at 6-3. The teams: The Aces most recently lost 87-83 at home to Atlanta. A’ja Wilson was a bright spot with 20 points and nine boards. Las Vegas coach Bill Laimbeer though will be eager to get off on the “right foot” here, as this marks the opener of a four-game, six-day road trip for his team: “We're trying to find a cohesive situation," Laimbeer said yesterday. "I'm pushing any button I can to get five players (to play together.)” The Mercury most recently hammered the Chicago Sky 96-79 on Friday, with all five starters scoring in double figures, led by center Brittney Griner with 24 points. The pick: Las Vegas though is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after three or more SU/ATS losses, while Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after four or more SU victories. I think that Phoenix does indeed get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight and while I’ll stop short in call for the upset, this has one definitely has “nail biter” written all over it in my opinion. Play on the Aces. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Warriors on the “money line” in Game 3, laying the larger price for what turned out to be a relatively easy victory in the end. In Game 4 though I’m predicting that the hungry Cavaliers will keep the final score much more competitive and while I wouldn’t in fact be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The teams: Golden State comes in averaging 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, but only 35.6 percent from 3-point land. Kevin Durant led the way in the Game 3 win with 43 points, 13 boards and seven assists, while Stephen Curry though had just 11 points. Andre Igoudala would return for his first action of the series and score just eight points in 22 minutes off the bench. Cleveland is hitting 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James predictably led the way in Game 3 with 33 points, ten boards and 11 assists, while Kevin Love did his best with 20 points and 13 boards. The pick: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers. Golden State now has a virtually insurmountable lead in this series and a loss here would change nothing to its odds in accomplishing that. Winning the NBA Championship at home in Game 5 in front of the home town crowd would be pretty sweet. Right? The Cavs though have been embarrassed in this series and I think they are clearly the “hungrier” team tonight. I expect Cleveland’s overall desperation to be the difference in this one. Grab the points. |
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06-03-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set up: The season is just underway, but the LA Sparks are already rolling. Minnesota is 2-4, while LA is 3-1. In this particular contest, I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done. The teams: Both teams sport plenty of talent. Minnesota has Maya Moore, who is averaging 17.3 PPG, along with Sylvia Fowles (16.5) and Seimone Augustus (11.7). LA features Nneka Ogwumike who is averaging 20.3 points, while Chelsea Gray adds 18.5 and Odyssey Sims contributes 18.0. The pick: I don’t normally put a lot of stock on ATS trends, but in this case they are overwhelming. Note that the Lynx are 0-6 ATS overall this year and just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after a loss by ten points or more. LA on the other hand is 3-1 ATS overall, including 2-0 ATS as the favorite (and 42-32 ATS as the fav the last two years.) Also note that LA is a sharp 16-8 ATS in its last 24 when playing with three or more days rest. The Lynx are “due” to break out of their slump at some point, but I don’t foresee that happening against this rested and red hot Sparks team on the road. Lay the points. |
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06-01-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates would let one slip away last night, falling to the Cardinals 10-8 in extra innings. Pittsburgh has lost seven of ten, including two of three to St. Louis just last week. St. Louis though hasn’t had much success either of late, as last night’s victory pushes the team to 5-5 out of its last ten. The pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon gets the call for Pittsburgh and he’s so far 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Taillon has enjoyed varied success agains the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 4.45 ERA over six starts, which includes going 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one outing at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas gets the nod for St. Louis and he’s 6-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over ten starts this season. That includes going 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four home outings. Over 47 career games in the big leagues though Mikolas is 10-7 with a 4.17 ERA, including 8-5 with a 4.37 ERA as a starter. The pick: The Pirates come into this one ranked eighth overall in the league by averaging 4.67 RPG, while also ranked seventh in hitting at .257 average. The Cardinals are averaging 4.28 RPG (ranked 20th) and hitting .240 as a club. Are Mikolas’s early numbers sustainable? I think immediate regression is upcoming and I look for the hungry Pirates to take advantage and atone for yesterday’s late inning collapse. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA has to be thrilled that both conference finals are headed to a Game 7. The first of those two will be the Cleveland Cavs are the Boston Celtics on Sunday night. This series will need a seventh game to decide but the individual games have hardly been tightly contested. Boston's matgin of victory have been by 25, 13 and 13 points, while the Cavs have won their home contests by 30, nine and 10 points. The Celtics have yet to lose at home in the playoffs (going a perfect 10-0) but a Game 7 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers is different from every other test the young team has faced in the postseason. James comes in seeking his eighth straight trip to the Finals (four straight with the Heat and a current three-year run with the Cavs). Cleveland: LBJ stepped up with his team facing elimination in Game 6 on Friday, collecting 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in 46 minutes to push Cleveland to a 109-99 win and put himself one win away from an eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. He comes in to this contest averaging 34.9 in Game 7s, including his 45 to help eliminate the Indiana Pacers in this year's first round. King James" has averaged 34 per game in going 13-9 in elimination games over his career. He will likely need help but that help won't come from teh team's second-leading scorer, as Kevin Love (13.9 & 10.0 this postseason) has been ruled out of this contest with a concussion. Jeff Green (14 points) and Larry Nance Jr. (10 points on 5-of-5 shooting) stepped up in Love's absence but can they be counted on again in Game 7? Boston: The Celtics have won the first three home games in the series by an average of 17 points and already own a Game 7 home win under their belts in this postseason, after knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks 112-96 in the first round. "Best player in the game," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said after Friday's game. "Special night tonight and special night in Game 4 ... I can't say enough good things about him." Added Terry Rozier, who has often found himself outmanned in a switching situation that left him on James: "We know LeBron is different than a lot of other guys, but we've got to get the job done." Rozier scored a series-high 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 6 after slumping to eight points on 3-of-15 in Game 5. SG Jaylen Brown had 27 points in Game 6 and is averaging 20.8 points in the series and a team-high 18.3 in the postseason. Rookie SF Tatum is right behind him at 18.2 PPG and was the one who collided with Love. However, Tatum was checked out by doctors Saturday and Stevens said there was "nothing there to be concerned about" with his star rookie. The pick: As noted before throughout this year's playoffs, the Celtics have never lost a series they've led 2-0. If fact, they've made it 36 and 37 straight with this year's first two rounds. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost prized off-season free agent Gordon Hayward in their regular season opener at Cleveland. Then, Boston lost prized off-season trade acquisition, Kyrie Irving (note: Irving's 24.4 PPG average was 10 points higher than the team's second-best scorer!), in mid-March for the remainder of the year. However, the Celtics are just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Celtics own a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but while they are a perfect 10-0 at home, they are only1-6 on the road this postseason (including losses in Games 3 & 4 at Cleveland). As for the Cavs, LeBron James could be playing in his final game in Cleveland before his expected dive into free agency. However, it should come as nor surprise that "The King" is clearly focused on earning one more trip to Boston. "We're looking forward to having an opportunity to force a Game 7," James told reporters after his squad's 96-83 loss in Wednesday's Game 5. "It's up to us to see if we can come back here for one more." Also on the line is LBJ's consecutive Finals streak, as he has gone to the last seven, including the past three with the Cavs. Boston: Rookie SF Jayson Tatum scored 24 points in Game 5 for his ninth 20-point outing of the postseason. The 20-year-old is putting together one of the best scoring playoff runs by a rookie in NBA history with 312 points and he trails only Elgin Baylor (331), Alvan Adams (341) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (352). Tatum led Boston in Game 5 but four others scored in double-digits, which tells the story of the Celtics' success this postseason. Tatum has averaged 18.4 & 4.3 this postseason, followed by Brown (17.8 & 4.9), Rozier (16.5-5.5-5.8), Horford (12.5 & 8.5), Morris (12.5 & 5.2) and Smart (10.2-3.8-5.0). Boston's defense was smothering in the Game 5 win. The Cavs were forced into 15 turnovers, as the Celtics changed their starting lineup and went big, inserting Aron Baynes for Marcus Morris but often playing both of them with Al Horford. The Celtics ended the regular season allowing 100.4 PPG (3rd) on 44.0% shooting (2nd), including 33.9% on threes (1st). Cleveland: James had 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while going 11-of-22 shooting in Game 5 but he downplayed interrogating questions about his level of fatigue (note: LBJ scored only two points in the 4th quarter). "I had my moments, but I think everybody at this point is tired, worn down whatever the case may be," James told reporters. "I was still trying to make plays, put our team in position to win." James topped 40 points twice in this series and six times in the postseason and has at times single-handedly kept his team afloat. That said, the Cavs will need their complementing players to step up. Kevin Love was the only other Cavaliers player who scored in double figures in Game 5, while the team's other three starters (Hill, Smith and Thompson) combined for just 10 points on 2 of 14 shooting! The pick: So where do we (I) stand? LBJ will need help but in the end, it is really all about him. This marks LBJ's 22nd game in which his team will be facing elimination. In the previous 21 games in which his team has faced elimination in the playoffs, James is averaging an NBA-record 33.5 points. He has played in seven of these with the Cavs dating to the 2015 playoffs, and not only is he averaging 36.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in those games, he has scored 40 or more five times and Cleveland has won those four games. The last time the Cavs faced an elimination scenario -- which means the last time they had to deal with the whole "LeBron's last game" narrative -- was Game 7 of the first round against the Pacers. James scored 45 that day and the Cavs survived, although did not cover. However, the Pacers only earned that ATS win by making a meaningless three-pointer in the final seconds. Boston's been unbeatable at home but on the road....NOT SO MUCH! Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors were impressive in winning Game 1 of this series but the team's lackluster performance in Game 2 raised some questions. In particular, many speculated that star PG Stephen Curry, who averaged just 17 points and went a combined 2-of-13 from three-point range, wasn't completely healthy. However, the Warriors emphatically answered all of their doubters with a dominating 126-85 victory in Game 3. Curry found his shot during a third-quarter outburst on Sunday and finished with a game high 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting (on threes). Curry went only 3-of-11 from the floor in the first half on Sunday but then went 7-of-7 in the third quarter while scoring 18 points, sparking a run that put the game out of reach. The 41-point victory was the largest in franchise history during the postseason, topping a 39-point win -- 85-46 -- by the Philadelphia Warriors against the St. Louis Bombers on April 6, 1948 (that's a LONG tiome ago!). As Game 4 approaches, it's top-seeded Houston Rockets, who are now facing similar questions. They will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing performance and even the Western Conference finals at two wins apiece. The Rockets scored 127 points on 51.1 percent shooting while winning Game 2 but suffered the worst playoff loss in franchise history in Game 3, shooting 39.5% (including 11 of 34 on threes) plus attempted only a modest 13 FTs. Houston: Head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters he was unhappy with the way his team played in Game 3. "Played soft, actually. I mean, you can't do that with these guys. These guys are good."Houston not only shot poorly (see above) but the Rockets committed 20 turnovers that led to 28 points. "We weren't as aggressive as we needed to be," Rockets star James Harden, who agreed with his coach's assessment of the team, told reporters. "We started off the game pretty solid, and then we let them gain some confidence to end the first quarter. But just defensively, they didn't feel us, and it showed tonight." After scoring 27 points in the Game 2 win, backup guard Eric Gordon scored just 11 points on Sunday, shooting 4 of 13 (2-8 on threes). Starting forwards Tucker and Ariza combined fior 41 points in the Game 2 win but each scored just six points in the Game 3 blowout. Harden had 41 points in Game 1 but after scoring 27 points in Game 2, had just 20 points in Game 3. PG Chris Paul, playing in his first-ever conference final, is a woeful 5-of-20 from three-point range in the series. Golden State: Curry, who had missed 17 of his 20 three-point attempts through the first 10 quarters of the series, sent the Warriors' home crowd into a frenzy by making 4 of 5 in the second half Sunday. en route to 35 points. Durant had a modest 25 points but is averaging 33.3 points on 52.9 percent shooting in the series. Draymond Green continues to play the role of the "Great Disruptor," finishing with a modest 10 points but also 17 rebounds and six assists, while serving as the key to the team's much-improved defensive effort. The pick: The Warriors' 41-point Game 3 win gives them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series but it also gave them an NBA-record 16 straight playoff wins at home. A key factor figures to be what I touched on earlier. Important members of the James Harden/Chris Paul supporting cast, Gordon, Tucker and Ariza, combined for 23-of-33 shooting and contributed 68 points in Houston's 127-105 series-evening home win in Game 2. However, they went a combined 8 of 24 and 23 points in the blowout Game 3. The loss was the Rockets' fourth of the postseason but they have rebounded with wins after each of the first three, romping by an average of 20.7 PPG. Of course, this time, they'll be up against a Warriors team that has been to three straight NBA Finals (winning twice). Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors took away the homecourt advantage from the Houston Rockets in their best-of-seven Western Conference finals with a solid 119-106 win in Game 1. However, while many seemed to think "that was all she wrote" for the Rockets in this series, Houston made a strong statement with a 22-point victory in Game 2. However, the series now shifts to Oracle Arena for the next two games, where the Warriors own a 15-game home winning streak in the playoffs (the streak has equaled the Chicago Bulls in 1990-91 as the longest streak in NBA playoff history). In a showdown of the league's two highest scoring offenses, the team that shot the best prevailed in each of the first two meetings. Led by Kevin Durant going 14 of 27 from the floor in a 37-point effort (plus Thompson's 28 points), the Warriors outshot the Rockets 52.5 percent to 45.9 in the Game 1 win. The Rockets then countered in Game 2 with a more balanced approach, with Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combining to go 23 of 33 (69.7%), accounting for 68 of Houston's 127 points in the win. Houston shot 51.1 percent, while Golden State shot 45.9%. Houston: The Rockets didn't win 65 games (seven more than Golden State) in the regular season by accident. Houston sees an opportunity to take back control of the series and insists it is unfazed as it enters two straight games in Oakland. "The challenge is you're playing Golden State," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "That's why they've won 15 in a row, not because of the building, but because they're good. I mean, everybody, all these players are used to playing in hostile environments or loud or whatever. I mean, it helps a little bit. Sometimes you feed off the energy also from the other crowd. So you try to take them out as soon as you can and take out the crowd, but they're a good basketball team." PG Chris Paul had 16 points, six assists and three steals in the Game 2 win while fighting through a calf issue that he says will not hold him back for Sunday's tilt. Paul has outscored Curry 39-34 in the series and been more efficient, but also has struggled from long range, shooting just 3 of 12 on three-pointers. After a 41-point effort in the Game 1 loss, Harden had a more modest 27 in Game 2 plus was only 3 of 15 on threes. Eric Gordon led the way in Game 2 by scoring 27 points while making 6-of-9 from three-point range in Game 2 after averaging just 9.7 points and hitting 5-of-18 from beyond the arc over his previous three contests. Tucker scored 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting in Game 2, after going 35 minutes without a field goal in Game 1 plus Ariza was 7-of-9 from the floor (19 points). Golden State: KD has been an unstoppable force so far (he's averaged 37.5 points on 55.1 percent shooting in the series) but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled to shoot a combined 10-for-30 from the floor. "I've gone 0-for-11 before shooting 3s and 1-for-8, whatever the case is," Curry told reporters Friday. "I always shoot that next shot with the optimism and confidence that it's going in. So, you can work on stuff between practices and games to get your rhythm, just seeing the ball going in and working on your mechanics, but [I'll] never lose confidence in myself. That'll never change." Curry is 2-of-13 in the series on threes and Thompson, after an excellent Game 1, shot 3-of-11 overall, scoring just eight points in the Game 2 loss. The pick: The Warriors lost just once in four playoff series en route to the championship last year (16-1), suffered their third loss of the 2018 postseason in Game 2. They have rebounded to win by a total of 34 points in the game after each of their first two losses. However, the Rockets had the best road record in the NBA during the regular season (31-10), and have won three of four on the road in their first two playoff series. "I'm feeling great," Curry said in the aftermath of the Game 2 loss. How do we really know, though. Curry missed Golden State's 4-1 victory over San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs and then the opener against New Orleans in the second round with a sprained left MCL. He has started the last five games but has been well below his usual high standard in the first two against the Rockets, averaging 17.0 points while missing 11 of 13 three-point shots. The Rockets have attacked Curry on defense, prompting many to question the former two-time Most Valuable Player's health. The Warriors will be hosting a Game 3 for the first time since 2014 and they lost that game 98-96 to the Los Angeles Clippers, with Paul contributing 15 points and 10 assists to the winning effort. Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-20-18 | Yankees v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Gary Sanchez homered twice among four hits to lead a 14-hit attack (including a season-high five HRs) in Saturday's 8-3 triumph for the Yankees, evening the team's three-game series with the Royals at a game apiece. Aaron Hicks had an inside-the-park homer and scored twice for New York, which has now won 20 of its last 24 and owns MLB's best record at 29-13. Kansas City opened the series with a 5-2 win on Friday but will host the rubber match of the set with a 14-31 record, leaving them with a better record than only the sad-sack White Sox in the AL. The Yankees will try to extend their streak of series wins to eight when they take on the host Royals on Sunday, plus hope to improve to 9-1 against American League Central foes here in 2018. The pitching matchup: The Yankees give the ball to struggling righty Sonny Gray (2-3, 6.39 ERA), while the Royals turn to left-hander Eric Skoglund (1-3, 5.58 ERA) in the series finale. Gray allowed two runs and four hits in six innings in back-to-back starts, before getting roughed up in a loss to Oakland on May 11. He surrendered five runs on a season-high nine hits - including two home runs - in the outing. Gray will be well rested on Sunday, as he has not pitched in eight days because of the schedule. The Yankees had days off Monday and Thursday, were rained out Wednesday in Washington after getting Tuesday's game suspended following the top of the sixth inning. Gray is 1-2 in four career starts against the Royals but owns a solid 2.77 ERA. Skoglund is off his longest start of the year, having allowed two runs in 7 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay on Monday (Royals lost 2-1). He lasted at least seven innings in two of his four home starts but was limited to 4 2/3 innings in the other two at Kauffman Stadium, giving up five runs in both of those clunkers. This marks his first career start vs. the Yankees. The pick: Sure, the Yankees own MLB's best record but Gray has had little to do with that. He has struggled all season with a 6.39 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and opponents hitting .284 against him. The Yankees are just 3-5 in his eight starts in 2018 and has pitched five or less innings in five of his eight starts this season. Gray has posted only one victory since April 7 and is 6-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 19 starts since being acquired from the Athletics in a trade on July 31. Clearly, he has not been 'the savior' the Yanks thought he would be. Why not take the 1 1/2 runs with the Royals? Make KC an 8* play. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have little margin for error after losing the first two games of this series at Boston. It's not so much that the Celtics won both Game 1 and Game 2, Boston is 9-0 this postseason at TD Garden, but how they won them. Cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19.0 PPG and even a monster Game 2 effort by LeBron James (42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists) on Tuesday couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. "We've got to be tougher, mentally and physically," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "We've got to come out swinging. We've got to be aggressive. I think we've got to be physical, and we've got to have a physical mindset, you know, that they're coming in, playing tough. They're aggressive, and we've got to match that." That sounds good but the fact is, of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series. Boston surely doesn't want to provide a glimmer of hope,as the Celtics are well aware that LBJ has led his team to seven straight NBA Finals appearances (the last three years with the Cavs). The Celtics are looking to move one step closer to the franchise's first NBA Finals berth since 2010. "We're going to have to be really focused, really locked in, really consistent," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "It's even harder to communicate on the road. You've got to be great communicating." Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown is back healthy and has been the team's highest scorer in this series with solid back-to-back 23-point outings (17.8 PPG in the playoffs, overall), while rookie SF Jayson Tatum leads the team this postseason at 18.1 PPG. PG Terry Rozier (17.4-5.6-5.6) has filled in for the injured Kyrie Irving admirably and veteran C/PF Al Horford is averaging 17.1-8.4-3.6 this postseason. PF Morris checks in at 12.9 & 5.4 plus reserve guard Marcus Smart (10.5-4.0-5.0) continues to be a presence on both ends of the court. However, he is just 7-of-21 shooting (33.3%) this series, as part of a struggling Boston bench. Also note that Tatum is averaging 13.5 points through two games of this series, after a franchise rookie record stretch of seven straight 20-point outings. Cleveland: It's always mostly about LBJ with this team but with Boston's starting backcourt of Brown and Terry Rozier outscoring the Cavs' starting guards 72-12, Tyronn Lue knows that can't continue. In particular, shooting guard JR Smith is averaging two points on 2-of-16 shooting, including 0-of-7 from three-point range. Then there is PG George Hill, who is averaging four points and 0.5 assists in the series. James was bothered by a strained neck after Game 2 but the extra days of rest figure to leave him near full strength. The Cavs are a veteran team but the bottom line is, only four players remain from the 2016 championship team (James, Kevin Love, JR Smith, and Tristan Thompson) plus Kyle Korver represents the only other current Cavs player on the 2017 Finals team that lost in five games to Golden State. This veteran group lost its composure in the second half of Game 2, blowing an eight-point halftime lead and missing all eight threes in the fourth quarter! The pick: OK, so where are we? Boston may be 9-0 at home in the playoffs but the Celtcis are just 1-4 on the road, with statistical drops in just about every major category when playing away from TD Garden. The Celtics are also a young team missing its two best players, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 5-1 at home this postseason, although they are a 'money-burning' 1-5 ATS. While the Cavs aren't what they once were (remember, Irving used to play for them), but organizationally they are the three-time defending conference champs. Remember that stat which said " of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series?" Note that of the 19 teams who've made the comeback, two were led by LeBron James. LBJ has topped 40 points five times this postseason and is averaging 33.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists. "With a little help from his friends," LBJ's Cavs get back in this series with a convincing win. Make Cleveland a 10* play.
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05-18-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox won 6-2 in Thursday's series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. Home runs by J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts backed David Price's first complete game since 2016. Mookie Betts added three hits to boost his AL-leading average to .364 and Martinez homered for the eighth time in his last 15 games, although he left early due to a stomach ailment. The victory marked Boston's seventh straight over Baltimore, dating to 2017. The Red Sox will try to extend their winning streak against the Baltimore Orioles to eight games when the AL East rivals continue a four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday. The Orioles had won five of six while scoring at least five runs in each victory before being held to a total of three runs on nine hits in back-to-back losses, 4-1 to the Phillies on Wednesday and last night in Fenway to the Red Sox. The lone bright spot for Baltimore was when Manny Machado broke up Price's shutout bid with a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth for his fifth home run in a seven-game span.
The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-5, 7.06 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 5.47 ERA) gets the nod for Boston.Cobb has been a huge bust so far (he spent his firest six seasons with the Rays), as he remains in search of his first win of 2018. He's made six starts with Baltimore losing all six. The Boston native allowed three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, while getting through a start without issuing a walk for the first time this year. However, he was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) in 3 2/3 innings at Fenway Park in his season debut and is 6-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Pomeranz is off an excellent season (17-6, 3.32 ERA) but has not come near matching that effort here in 2018, after beginning the season on the D (he has made just five starts). He delivered a pair of quality starts to begin May but then lasted just four innings while giving up three runs on five hits and five walks at Toronto on Sunday. He has allowed 28 hits and 13 walks in 24 2/3 innings overall, to register an early WHIP of 1.66, which would be his highest mark since 2013. Pomeranz owns a 3.34 ERA in eight career matchups (five starts) against the Orioles. The pick: Cobb was one of those late-signing free agents who didn't get much of a spring training and the results have shown just that. However, he has recovered from a dismal April (3.11 ERA) to produce a 3.06 ERA in three May starts plus he is 5-2 in eight career starts at Boston's Fenway Park. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-13-18 | Capitals +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-11-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets opened 11-1 but open a three-game series in Philadelphia with the Phillies having lost 16 of their last 23 games, including eight of nine to fall to 18-17. Philadelphia lost four of five to open the season but have made a solid turnaround since then, as the Phillies are now 22-15 overall (that's a 21-11 run), after capping a four-game sweep of San Francisco with a 6-3 win on Thursday. The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) to the mound and Philly counters with 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA). Matz suffered a disastrous seven-run outing on April 25 but rebounded with his first quality start of the season in Saturday's 2-0 loss to Colorado. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. The 26-year-old had his start pushed back due to a stiff back and while allowed a first-inning HR (his 6th in 27 2/3 innings), he settled down. Matz pitched well in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, permitting two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 setback on Aug. 12. Arrieta missed Philadelphia's first series versus New York, as he worked himself into shape after signing a three-year, $75 million contract in March. He will be back on the mound Friday night for his seventh start in a Phillies uniform. He was part of a pitchers' duel in his last outing, facing Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals (he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks last Sunday in six innings). Arrieta enjoyed a three-start winning streak before getting blitzed against Miami on April 30, but rebounded at Washington on Sunday. He has posted a 2-2 mark with a 2.30 ERA in seven career appearances versus the Mets. |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees found themselves 7 1/2 games behind the Red Sox on April 20. Boston's 17-2 run allowed them to seize control of the American League East early on However, Boston's gone 8-9 since that blistering start, while the Yankees have utilized a 17-1 run to take over the top spot in the division (a 2-1 loss to Houston on April 30 being the only blemish). The Yankees now look to make it 18 of 19 and complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox when the American League East rivals meet Thursday in the Bronx. Stanton's two HRs led the way to a 3-2 win on Tuesday and last night, Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge combined for six hits, six runs and five RBI, including four on consecutive hits - Gardner's two-run triple and Judge's two-run homer - against Boston closer Craig Kimbrel in an eighth-inning rally that lifted New York to a 9-6 victory. "They're playing good baseball," Kimbrel said. You think? Beside the 17-1 run, the Yankees are on their second eight-game winning streak of the season and their 11-game home winning streak is the longest since a 12-game run from April 25-June 1, 1985.
The pitching matchup: It's a battle of lefties on Thursday, as Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 5.29 ERA) goes for the Red Sox, opposed by CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.39 ERA) of the Yankees. Rodriguez posted three straight quality starts in the middle of April but has given up five runs in each of his last two outings. He struck out 10 in six innings but served up three HRs in his last start Saturday at Texas. He is 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in nine starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is coming off a successful 2017, when the Yankees went 19-8 in his 27 starts, giving him MLB's 4th-best moneyline mark at plus-$1163. He is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list April 19 (Yankees are 4-0), including six scoreless innings and a season-high seven strikeouts against Cleveland on Friday (he got a no-decision in NY's 7-6 win). He has not allowed a HR in each of those four starts and has issued only three walks over his last five outings. The 37-year-old is 17-13 with a 4.12 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics have never lost a playoff series after taking a 2-0 lead (36-0 all-time) and in this series against the 76ers, won Game 3, as well. Yes, Philly won Game 4 at home to stave off elimination but both the 76ers and Celtics are well aware that all 130 teams which have fallen behind 0-3 in a best-of-seven series (including Toronto just losing to Cleveland in the 2018 postseason) have failed in their attempt to make a 'miracle' comeback. The Celtics were outplayed by the 76ers in Monday's 103-92 loss but the post-game mood wasn't overly somber. "It's 3-1, we get a chance to go back to Boston," forward Marcus Morris told reporters. "Nobody's head is down. We're all motivated. We're happy. It would've been better to end it (Monday), but so be it. We go back to Boston and play." As for the 76ers, they are still maintaining hope that they can become the first team to rally from a 0-3 deficit and win a playoff series. "This thing can be done," Philadelphia forward Robert Covington told reporters. "We've done it before as far as finishing the season strong so why can't we do this? We're playing against history, but we've played against history before so why can't we do something great?" Philadelphia: T.J. McConnell will draw his second straight start after posting 19 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 39 minutes in Game 4. McConnell started just one game during the regular season but he provided a tone for Monday's win by making 9-of-12 from the floor and not committing any turnovers, as part of Philly's three-guard lineup (joining Simmons and Redick). "He changed everything," 76ers center Joel Embiid told reporters. "He was pressing full court the whole time doing his job, running the offense, getting guys involved, making shots, layups." SF Covington came of the bench, while PF Saric had his best game of the postseason in Game 4, scoring 25 points and adding eight rebounds (he had averaged 12.3 points over the first three games of the series). Simmons bounced back from his one-point effort in Game 3 with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Embiid added 15 & 13 (he's averaging 20.6 & 12.7 in seven playoff games). Boston: The injury-ravaged Celtics suffered another one in Game 4, as Shane Larkin injuring his left shoulder running into the wall known as Embiid. Head coach Stevens said Tuesday he won't know until Wednesday's shoot-around whether he'll have his backup guard. The Celtics were sloppy as their four-game playoff winning streak came to an end. "I mean, obviously, what did we end up with? Fifteen turnovers," Stevens said after the game. "The offensive rebounds were enormous for them, just the extra possessions. Neither team shot it great, but they were really good tonight." Guard Terry Rozier has emerged as a postseason hero with Kyrie Irving out for the year, but he will need to bounce back from his first sub-par game of the series. He had just two assists and scored only 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 4. Rozier averaged 22.3 points over the first three games of the series and has scored 20 or more points on five occasions during the postseason (18.3-5.5-6.1 in 11 playoff games). SF Jayson Tatum is averaging 23.3 points in the series and has extended his rookie franchise postseason record of consecutive 20-point games to six.
The pick: Boston having never lost a series in which it has gone up 2-0 in plus the fact that teams falling behind 0-3 in a series are 0-130 all-time, make Philly's chances at coming all the way back to win this series seem futile. Throw in that Boston is also 6-0 SU at home this postseason and it's more than fair to say Philly's postseason hopes are 'on life-support.' However, the 76ers can win here and still lose the series, so let's stick to this Game 5 analysis. Philly did not play well in Game 1 but had chances to win in each of the next three games, finally breaking through in Game 4. Note that Game 4 was not exactly Philly at its best. We haven't seen that yet. My bet is we will see that tonight, as Philly starts to make Boston 'sweat' with a win that sens this series back to Philly for a Game 6. Make Philly a 10* play. |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston Rockets drilled the Jazz in Game 1 of this series but then lost Game 2. However, the league's best regular season team (65-17) rebounded with back-to-back double-digit victories at Salt Lake City to take a commanding 3-1 series lead." Houston is that good. Give them credit. They know how to control a game," Jazz head coach Snyder told reporters after a 100-87 loss on Sunday in Game 4. Chris Paul ate up Utah's defense with a string of short jumpers en route to a 27-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort for Houston, his best game of the 2018 postseason. James Harden added 24 points, while center Clint Capela had 12 & 15, his fifth double-double in his last six games. The Jazz shot 38.6% as a team, including an awful 7 of 29 (24.1%) on threes. The Rockets are aiming for their eighth trip to a conference finals and their first since 2015, when they lost to Golden State, Utah: Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell is doing his best to be the leader on the offensive end (24.4 PPG in the playoffs) but PG Ricky Rubio has still not played in the series due to a hamstring issue. That's allowed the Rockets to key in on the 21-year-old, who was 8-of-24 from the floor Sunday as the Jazz shot a playoff-low 38.6 percent. Joe Ingles had 27 points in the Game 2 win at Houston but averaged just 10.5 on 34.8 percent shooting in the two contests at home. Mitchell and Ingles shot 30 percent and 34.8 percent at Vivint Smart Home Arena, respectively, with both missing 10 of 14 three-pointers. PF Derrick Favors was limited to 16 minutes in Game 4 due to a sprained ankle, as injuries have taken their toll on Utah. Houston: Harden and Paul get the bulk of the headlines but center Clint Capela's ability to raise his game has made Houston particularly dangerous this spring. He had 12 points, 15 rebounds and six blocked shots in Game 4 and is averaging 15.4 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in the playoffs, all increases from the regular season. The Rockets are undoubtedly the better team and for the most part, have been the more aggressive team. Heading into Game 5, Houston has made 75 FTs to Utah's 55. Harden has made 36 free throws in the series, while Mitchell leads Utah with just 12. The pick: The Rockets would love to put Utah away here and move on to an all but guaranteed showdown with teh Warriors. However, a win doesn't figure to come easily. Utah's Snyder said after Game 4, "We missed 22 shots at the rim. We had our chances and didn't convert. Some of them were contested. Some of them were open. You're not going to get any better shot." I expect Mitchell and Ingles to shoot much better than they did in the last two games plus how can Jae Crowder shoot any worse? He was 2-of-17 from the floor over the last two games. after going 13-of-23 over the first two. As for the Rockets, despite a 13-point win in Game 4, Harden and Paul combined to make just 2 of 13 three-point attempts. For the series, Harden is converting on a modest 36.0% of his threes, while Paul is making only 29.4% of his three-point attempts. What's also to be noted is that Houston is just 20-25-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 10-18-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points. Make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1, 2 and 3. The Cavs now look to deliver yet another damaging blow in this one-sided rivalry by completing a four-game sweep Monday night at home. Toronto: LeBron James knocked down a running buzzer-beater to give his team a 105-103 victory in Game 3 on Saturday. "Our goal in the timeout was to trap him and make someone else beat us," Toronto head ach Dwane Casey told reporters of a play that will haunt him. "He split the trap and went 100 miles an hour down the floor and lost them. We just didn't execute. It was probably my fault that I didn't make it clear that we wanted to trap him and get the ball out of his hands. We had it started in the backcourt, and for whatever reason, we let him out of the trap." The Raptors couldn't contain LBJ (see more below) plus their task of winning Game 3 was made all the more difficult when leading scorer DeMar DeRozan struggled the way he did, producing just eight points (more than 15 below his average this postseason) on 3-of-12 shooting. That led to a benching of DeRozan during a critical portion of the fourth quarter. "It's extremely hard, extremely hard," DeRozan told reporters of sitting on the sidelines while his teammates made a late push. "I just want to be out there helping my team, way more than anything. It definitely sucks to be watching ... we've got to give credit to those guys. We fought hard and gave ourselves a chance to win." The Raptors made Game 3 close behind the efforts of Kyle Lowry, who scored 15 of his 27 during the comeback. Lowry is averaging 22 points on 62.9 percent shooting in the series. Cleveland: LeBron James is putting on a display this postseason that will be talked about for ages. The game-winner on Saturday capped a 38-point effort for the superstar, who is averaging 34.8 points on 54.7 percent shooting to go along with 9.5 rebounds and 8.8 assists during the playoffs. "I've been doing that since I was like six, seven, eight years old," James told reporters of his latest clutch moment. "Maybe even before that. There's a picture floating around of me beside a Little Tikes hoop with a saggy Pamper on and I was doing it back then and all the way up until now, at 33." However, maybe even more important for Cleveland's long-term outlook this spring, was the second straight solid game for big man Kevin Love, who had 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting and 16 rebounds (he had 31 & 11 in Game 2). The pick: Teams that fall behind 0-3 in the playoffs are 0-129 in NBA history, giving Toronto virtually insurmountable odds to come out on top against a team it cannot seem to solve. However, we are talking ONLY about Game 4 here and the Raptors can lose and still "get the cash! I noted before Game 3 in taking the Raptors that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. Also, the Cavs were 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. After Toronto's Game 4 cover, the updated numbers for Cleveland are 0-5 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-32-1 ATS at home on the year. Take the points and make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics needed seven games to dispatch the Bucks in the opening round, as the home team won all seven games. Meanwhile, "The Process" was coming to fruition with the 76ers taking care of the Heat in five games. Making things look even worse for Boston was the fact that not only were the Celtics without Kyrie Irving (not to mention Hayward) but they had to open this best-of-seven series with Jaylen Brown injured. He had been Boston's top scorer against the Bucks, until getting sidelined during the team's Game 7 win over Milwaukee. Brown sat out Game 1 of this series but Boston was able to win that game with ease, 117-101. Then, with Brown coming off the bench in Games 2 and 3, the Celtics were able to rally from a 22-point deficit to beat the 76ers 108-103 in Game 2 plus earn an OT at Phiily in Game 3. The Celtics will now take a commanding 3-0 lead into Game 4, as the 76ers look to avoid a four-game sweep. Boston: The Celtics received 24 points from rookie Jayson Tatum while Al Horford scored the final five points of the game as they earned a stunning 101-98 overtime victory Saturday. Philly's Marco Belinelli’s jumper with less than a second left in the fourth quarter caused confetti to fill the air at the Wells Fargo Center, but his foot was inside the 3-point line and it only tied the game, then Boston rallied in overtime to win. The veteran Horford scored seven of his 13 points in overtime and had a key steal in the final seconds that snuffed out a chance for Philadelphia to win the contest. Tatum is averaging 24.3 points in the series and guard Terry Rozier continues to shine while leading the team in scoring during the playoffs at 19.0 PPG. Philadelphia: Joel Embiid scored 22 points and grabbed 19 rebounds (he's now registered five straight double-doubles in the playoffs) but the 76ers shot just 39.2 percent from the floor on Saturday, while turning the ball over in key situations. Rookie PG Ben Simmons did rebound from his 'ugly' Game 2 performance (one point, five turnovers) to score 16 while recording eight rebounds and eight assists in Saturday’s setback. “I have a lot of growing to do,” Simmons told ESPN.com. Shooting guard J.J. Redick is averaging 20.3 points in the series but PF Dario Saric is 5-of-23 from three-point range in the last five games, after draining 11-of-23 in the first three playoff contests. SF Robert Covington had just one point in Saturday’s loss, going 0-fo-8 from the floor. The pick: Philly is well aware that a series win is highly unlikely. It's been well documented that all 129 teams have failed to win a series after falling behind 0-3. However, this Philadelphia team has had a terrific season and I see them "winning one for the Gipper" here in Game 4. Yes, the 76ers are just 2-2 SU & ATS this postseason at home but they finished the regular season on a 21-1 SU run at home, going 17-5 ATS. Lay the points and make Philly an 8* play. |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +6 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets put their Game 2 loss at home to the Jazz behind themselves with an impressive display of basketball in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series at Salt Lake City . The Jazz upset the Rockets 116-108 in Game 2 as an 11-point underdog to temporarily wrest home-court advantage from the top-seeded Rockets. However, Houston answered in convincing fashion when the series shifted to Utah, opening a 30-point halftime lead and cruising from there to a 113-92 victory. James Harden scored 25 points and handed out 12 assists, while Eric Gordon added 25 points off the bench (he had totaled only 22 points in Games 1 and 2, combined). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell has taken a leadership roll for Utah this postseason but scored just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting. Houston now looks to take a 3-1 series lead when the teams meet Sunday at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Houston: Shooting guard Eric Gordon was a big factor in Houston's turnaround, as he made 8-of-13 from the floor in Game 3, after shooting under 50 percent in each of his first seven games this postseason. Also, the All Star duo of Harden and Chris Paul combined for 18 assists against one turnover in Friday's game (Paul added 15 points). Harden is now averaging 30.4 points in the postseason, identical to his league-leading average during the regular season. Houston is also benefiting from having made 59 free throws in the first three games of the series, compared to only 39 for the Jazz. Utah: "I didn't really do much as a whole, like I wasn't there," Mitchell told the media after Game 3. "That can't happen. That will probably be what I take away the most. It's like I would have been better off just not showing up, because that's what I did. I didn't show up at all for my teammates, and I'll fix it." PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring) has been doing some agility drills and light work on the court as he approaches a potential return but Utah also has another injury concern in the form of Derrick Favors, who left Game 3 with a sprained ankle. Favors, who averaged 12.3 points on 61.7 percent shooting in the first round against Oklahoma City, told reporters he hopes to play in Game 4. The Jazz also need to get a bounce-back effort from Joe Ingles, after he followed up a 27-point effort in Game 2 with a six-point showing in Friday's loss. The pick: Houston has now won all three meetings in Utah this season by double digits. That hardly bodes well for the Jazz but don't forget how well Utah played down the stretch, going 29-6 over their last 35 regular season games. This is pretty much a "must-win" for Utah, as a comeback from 3-1 against Houston would be h highly unlikely. Take the home dog Jazz and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-06-18 | Bruins +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bruins shocked the Lightning in Game 1 of their semifinal series, 6-2. However, Tampa Bay has won three straight since, putting Boston on the verge of elimination as the teams take the ice this Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos tied the contest in the third period of Game 4 and defenseman Dan Girardi tipped home the game-winner in overtime, as the Lightning rallied for a 4-3 victory Friday to give themselves a chance to finish their second series in five games. The Bruins have not recorded an even-strength goal since Game 2, after scoring twice with the man advantage and once short-handed during the rally that gave them a 3-2 lead in the third period Friday, before folding. Boston: Not only is Boston down 3-1 in the series but defenseman Torey Krug, who has 12 points in 11 playoff games, suffered a left ankle injury after crashing into the boards feet first on Friday. He has been ruled out for the rest of the series, perhaps giving veteran blue liner Nick Holden a spot in the lineup. Left wing Brad Marchand had a pair of assists Friday and boasts eight points in the series (17 in the postseason), but has managed only seven shots on goal overall in the four games. Left wing Rick Nash, who has five goals and four assists in his last four playoff games at Tampa Bay, scored twice in Game 1 but has been held to one assist since. Tampa Bay: The Lightning's top line is beginning to produce after a slow start to the series, as Nikita Kucherov scored on the power play and Stamkos had a goal for the second straight contest. “Our line has been talking a lot about wanting to have a better game,” Stamkos said of his unit that includes J.T. Miller. “Obviously, it’s not a matter of will. We knew eventually it was going to come.” Defenseman Victor Hedman did not have a point in the first playoff series, but has recorded five assists in the last four games against Boston to become the franchise’s postseason leader in that category (36). The pick: Here's some really good news for Lightning fans. They return home for Game 5 on Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena with history on their side, as no Lightning team has ever blown a 3-1 lead in the playoffs and the Bruins are 0-23 in series they trailed 3-1. What's more, Boston will have to stay alive without arguably their best defenseman in Torey Krug (see above). The Lightning's quick dismissal of New Jersey in the opening round gave them a full week of rest before this series and if they can dispatch the Bruins on Sunday, they can rest again, with all the other series going at least six games. It all sounds juts "too good" for me. “Desperate hockey,” explained Boston center Patrice Bergeron of the mindset for Sunday. “You know we’ve shown character all year. You know I’ve spoken about the resilience in this room, so it’s time to show it.” Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Boston a 6* play. |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. The Cavs now look to deliver another damaging blow in the one-sided rivalry when the teams meet for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Saturday. Toronto: As noted, the Raptors won a franchise-record 59 games during the regular season to earn the top seed in the East for the first time but the Raptors are down 0-2 and Toronto is searching for answers as it heads to Cleveland. DeRozan had 24 points and Kyle Lowry 21, as the Raptors shot 54.3 percent as a team but they offered little resistance at the other end (the Cavs shot 59.5%) while forcing just three turnovers, giving the Cavaliers a 24-8 advantage in that category this series. Toronto has been outscored 34-8 in points off turnovers (Cleveland set a franchise record with just three turnovers in a 128-110 win in Game 2), and by 12 points in the fourth quarter. DeRozan is 0-for-13 from three-point range over his last three games, plus after putting up a double-double in Toronto's first playoff game of 2018 (23 & 12), PF Ibaka has averaged 5.9 & 5.4 over his last seven games. Cleveland: James had 43 points, eight rebounds and 14 assists in Game 2 and hasn't needed much help during the playoffs. However, he was given a boost in Game 2 with a breakout effort from big man Kevin Love. After averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting through the first eight playoff games, the veteran had 31 points on 11-of-21 shooting in Thursday's win, plus added 11 rebounds. James has scored at least 44 points in each of his last three playoff home games, so it will be up to the Raptors to change the narrative in Game 3. The pick: Is that possible? Sure. Note that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. The Cavs are 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and are now a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team in 2018, as the teams met for Game 1 of this year's Eastern Conference semifinal series. If Game 1 is an indication, nothing much has changed. LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers once again got the better of the Toronto Raptors, winning 113-112. The Cavaliers will now attempt to maintain their postseason dominance over the Raptors with a chance tonight to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, before heading back home for Games 3 and 4. Cleveland: LBJ recorded his 21st career playoff triple-double (26-11-13) as Cleveland erased a 13-point deficit in the second half and survived multiple chances for the Raptors to win late in regulation and again in the closing seconds of overtime. JR Smith (20) and Kyle Korver (19) came up big for the Cavs, who never once led in regulation. The Cavs take the court tonight having won nine of 11 playoff meetings with the Raptors over the last three postseasons. One reason being, that Cleveland has hit at least 13 three-pointers in all five playoff games against Toronto over the last two seasons. Toronto: "A lot of things, we did to ourselves," head coach Dwane Casey told the media after the game. "I think we're a better team. We just didn't make the shots down the stretch. I know it sounds simplistic, but we had our open looks, had our opportunities, that we didn't cash in on, and some other things we could clean up defensively." Toronto has certainly heard all the talk of being owned by Cleveland and it seemed to lose its mental edge when the Cavaliers made things tight down the stretch on Tuesday. That said, center Jonas Valanciunas had 21 points and 21 rebounds to become the first player in franchise history with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds in a postseason game. However, the Raptors also committed 14 turnovers that led to 21 points for Cleveland, while forcing just six TOs. The pick: The Raptors changed their approach in Game 1, trying for a more balanced attack and creating an athletic and effective bench. Why not, after being eliminated two years in a row by the Cleveland Cavaliers? However, the more things change, the more they stay the same. For as much as the Raptors controlled Game 1 at the Air Canada Centre, they could not close it out (note: the Raptors missed their final 11 field goal attempts in regulation!) and the Cavaliers eked out a 113-112 overtime victory. The Raptors shot 32.1 percent from beyond the arc (9-for-28) and while they shot 42.9 percent (39-for-91) from the floor overall, they shot only 20.8 percent (9-for-24) in the fourth quarter. I had Cleveland in Game 1 and will take the points again here, in Game 2. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: As great as LBJ is, most believe that James Harden will win this year's MVP award. No one will get any arguments from the Utah Jazz. Harden scored 41 points in Houston's series-opening 110-96 victory to continue his season-long assault of the Jazz. He averaged 34.3 points in four meetings with the Utah in the regular season, including a 56-point outing, and the defensive-minded Jazz once again had no answers on slowing down the MVP candidate. Defensively, the Jazz were overrun by the Rockets' exceptional three-point shooting (17 for 32) and victimized early by some leaky transition defense. The Jazz lacked energy in the first half following a short turnaround from the completion of their first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder less than 48 hours prior to tip-off. However, Utah isn't fretting over the Game 1 loss as it also lost the opener of its first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder before recovering to win in six games. Utah: The Jazz were inundated with a number of causes behind their Game 1 loss but it all starts with the team missing starting PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell and veteran swingman Joe Ingles produced five assists each plus Utah received steady play from guards Dante Exum an Alec Burks off the bench. However, the Jazz missed Rubio's ball-handling skill and passing acumen. Mitchell picked up a large portion of the ball-handling and he committed four turnovers to go with 9-of-22 shooting while scoring 21 points in the opener. Mitchell's point total was his lowest in seven games this postseason (27.4 PPG this postseason) and he was also hampered by a sore ankle, although he insists won't be a problem in Game 2. The Jazz also missed the defensive presence of center Rudy Gobert, despite the fact that Gobert logged 35 minutes in the Game 1 loss. A Defensive Player of the Year candidate and league leader by a healthy margin in defensive real plus-minus, Gobert was a non-factor on that end, failing to record a block for the first time this postseason and just the eighth time overall. Gobert averaged 2.3 blocks and ranked second in the NBA in block percentage (6.0), yet the Rockets had success attacking the rim with Gobert stationed there to defend it, shooting 8 of 9 with Gobert within three feet of the rim. Gobert finished with 11 points and nine rebounds Houston: Harden received complementary help in Game 1 from PG Chris Paul (17 points), center Clint Capela (16 points, 12 rebounds) and forward PJ Tucker (15 points) in the opener. However, reserve SG Eric Gordon, who averaged 18.0 PPG during the regular season, missed all six of his shots in Game 1 and is shooting just 31.4 percent from the floor in the postseason while averaging a modest 12.5 PPG. The pick: The Rockets have been the NBA's best team so far this regular and postseason but head into this game just 20-24-1ATS on their homecourt. It remains unclear whether Rubio will return later in the series but I will back Utah (with some big points) in this Game 2, as the Jazz are 33-9 SU over their last 42 games. Take the points and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-01-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: LBJ led the Cavs to a first-round victory over the Indiana Pacers but if took seven games. James had 45 points in the Game 7 clincher (105-101) and he's now a perfect 13-0 in opening round playoff series in his career. However, the Cavs hardly looked dominating, as the Pacers covered SIX of the seven games. LeBron averaged 34.4 PPG in the series, with only Kevin Love (11.4) joining in in double digits in scoring for the seven-game set. The Toronto Raptors are the East's top seed (won a franchise record 59 games this regular season) but also didn't have an easy time of it in the first round. Toronto took a 2-0 lead over the Wizards but WWashingtonm won Games 3 and 4 at home, before the Raptors closed them out in six games. The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseaons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors are finally the favored team and hope to play like it when the teams begin their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup Tuesday night with Game 1 in Toronto. DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 26.7 PPG vs. Washington, feels that his team is finally ready to topple Cleveland, even if the roster is roughly the same. "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with," DeRozan told reporters. "You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Cleveland: LBJ played 41.2 minutes per game in the series with Indiana, after playing all 82 games during the regular season. James, who admitted after Sunday's win that he was "burnt right now," produced 29.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 8.0 eight assists in three matchups with the Raptors during the regular season plus averaged 36 points in last year's sweep of the Raptors. Toronto: DeRozan (26.7 & 4.8 APG) and Lowry (17.2 & 8.3 APG) need to play great plus Toronto would love to see reserves Wright (10.7) and Miles (9.3) continue their solid play off the bench. Center Valanciunas (13.5 & 9.3) posted good numbers but played little during the fourth quarter for most of the series. PG Ibaka was the Game 1 star (23 & 12) but averaged a "missing in action" 6.0 PPG over the series' last five games. Toronto can't afford that. The pick: Toronto figures to have a big advantage when the teams go to their benches and the Raptors' reserves were given a big boost with the return of guard Fred VanVleet for Game 6 against Washington (he missed four games in the series due to a shoulder injury. Cleveland knows all about VanVleet's ability to provide a spark, as the second-year pro averaged 15.7 points and five assists in 25.3 minutes off the bench against the Cavaliers this season. However, this series is still about "King James," and remarkably he is showing no ill effects of his heavy workload. He's like the "Energizer Bunny." James became the NBA's career playoff leader in steals and minutes played during the first round, after he became the points leader in 2017. James ranks first in points (6,404), first in minutes played (9,415), first in steals (399), third in assists (with 1,543), sixth in games played (224), seventh in rebounds (1,993) and 19th in blocks (216) in the all-time playoff ranks. Make LBJ (I mean Cleveland) a 10* play. |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics open their seven-game series tonight at TD Garden and missing will be Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Kevin McHale, Hal Greer, John Havlicek and Billy Cunningham. The point being, it's a new day and new time in this rivalry. The Process" is no longer a punch line, as the 76ers won their final 16 regular season games and then eliminated the Heat handily in teh first round of teh 2018 playoffs, 4-1. As for the Celtics, the era of Pierce, Garnett and Allen had come to an end when Brad Stevens took over in 2013-14, with the Celtics going 25-57.However, that season was no more than a speed bump, as "Butler Brad" has Boston back among the Eastern Conference elite, despite battling key injuries. The Celtics needed everything they had to survive a seven-game, first-round series with the Milwaukee Bucks and their reward is an Eastern Conference semifinals matchup with one of the hottest teams in the league in the rested Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia: The Sixers eliminated the Heat back on April 24 and the extra rest cannot be a bad thing for star center Joel Embiid, who returned from an orbital fracture to play the final three games of the series with the Heat. He averaged 18.7 points and 10.3 rebounds in those three games and shot 8-of-14 from the floor in Game 5. JJ Redick was Philadelphia's top scorer versus the Heat with 20.0 PPG but rookie PG Ben Simmons was nothing short of "special" in his first-ever postseason series, averaging 18.2-10.6-9.0 and 2.4 steals. The Sixers have waited through years of tanking to get back to respectability and now get their latest shot at their long-time rivals. Boston: The Celtics rose to the challenge of a Game 7 (nothing new there) against the Bucks this past Saturday, shooting 53.6% in a 112-96 win. However, the big question heading into Game 1 of this series will be the status of shooting guard Jaylen Brown, who left the clincher against Milwaukee due to a hamstring injury. Brown had been Boston's top scorer through six games and hopes to not miss any time. "I was told that if we got in a pinch that he could play," head coach Brad Stevens told reporters after the win. "We decided that that was not going to happen. With hamstrings, let's see how he feels tomorrow." Brown averaged 17.9 points against the Bucks (also 4.7 RPG), just a shade behind Horford's 18.1 PPG (and team-high 8.7 RPG). Three others also average in double digits in Rozier (17.6-4.3-6.7), Tatum (15.4 & 5.3) and Morris (13.3 & 4.9). The pick: This is the NBA's top rivalry in terms of series played. The teams meet for the 20th time in what has always been the Celtics but also been the Syracuse Nationals/Philadelphia Warriors/Sixers. The rivals last met in the playoffs in 2012, when Boston won a conference semifinals matchup in seven games.However, as noted above, that was then and this is now! The Celtics won three of four meetings during the regular season, including a matchup in London on Jan. 11. No many could have imagined at the start of the 2018 playoffs that Boston would have been a home dog against the 76ers in a Game 1 matchup at Boston. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James returned to Cleveland after a four-year 'mission' in Miami and has led the Cavs to three consecutive NBA Finals (won one and lost two). However, his three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers will host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday afternoon, trying to avoid a first-round exit. Cleveland went into Indiana on Friday with a chance to close out the series but got rocked 121-87. James was the only starter to score in double figures with 22 points, as the remaining four starters combined for a total of 22 points. The Cavs shot only 31.6% from three-point range (12 of 38) and adding insult to injury, made just 9 of 16 FTs (56.2%). Meanwhile, the Pacers played their most complete game of the series in Game 6, shooting 56.3 percent from the floor and forcing 15 turnovers. Oladipo led seven Pacers players in double figures, as Indiana shot 15-of-30 from three-point range. Indiana: Oladipo had lost his shooting touch in Games 3, 4 and 5, going a combined 12-of-50 (24.0%) from the floor but recorded a triple-double with 28 points on 11-of-19 shooting, 13 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 6. He became the third Pacer to post a playoff triple double. Domantas Sabonis, the other key acquisition in the Paul George trade, had 19 points on 9-of-11 shooting and is averaging 20 points on 26-of-35 shooting (74.3%) over the last three games. Cleveland: Jeff Green (13) and Rodney Hood (12) came off the bench in Game 6 to join LBJ in double figures but overall, it was brutal game by the Cavs. Kevin Love managed just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting and is now averaging 11 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the series, after posting 17.6 points on 45.8 percent during the regular season. "He's a huge part of our success or our non-success," James told reporters of Love. "Obviously, we try to go to him, we want to go to him. Obviously, we can't make the shots for him. He has to step up and knock those down. Those things you can't control." Making matters worse is that no other Cavs player is averaging double figures for the series. The pick: The Cavs have been 'living on the edge' all season and now face this do-or-die game. James is 4-2 all time in Game 7s and more importantly, has never lost an opening round series (12-0). Meanwhile, the Pacers are 3-5 in Game 7s, including 2-5 on the road. Indiana is also trying to avoid being eliminated by a James team (Cavs, Heat) for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. "The pressure is on both teams," Indiana head coach Nate McMillan said. "The loser goes home. So, for us, we take it one game at a time and we prepare ourselves for that next game. The next game is on the road. We understand the conditions we're playing in, but to say they feel more pressure than us? No. The losers go home. So there's pressure on both teams." I think he's 'whistling past the graveyard.' We saw Milwaukee fail miserably on Saturday in Game 7 at Boston (just not ready for primetime) and I believe the same fate awaits the Pacers. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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04-27-18 | Jets +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were an 8-seed in the West last season but made an impressive Stanley Cup run that didn't end until Game 6 of the Finals! Nashville built off last year's playoff success and entered this year's playoffs as the team with the most points (117) of any NHL club during the regular season. The Winnipeg Jets entered the Stanley Cup playoffs as a legitimate championship contender, after putting together the greatest regular season in franchise history by going 52-20-10. The team's 114 points did fall three shy of that of the Central Division-winning Nashville Predators but the Jets accumulated more points than any other NHL team save the Preds! The two Central Division rivals combined for 231 points during fantastic regular seasons, setting up what is expected to be an entertaining Western Conference semifinal. The Nashville Predators will host the Winnipeg Jets in the series opener tonight, after finishing 3-1-1 against them in the regular season. Each team owns one victory on road ice and the two combined for 41 goals in those five games, a testament to the offensive firepower on both rosters considering both teams have Vezina Trophy finalists in Pekka Rinne of the Predators and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg: The Jets had four players finish with 60-plus points, including the NHL co-leader in assists (Blake Wheeler had 68) and the second-highest goal scorer in the league (Patrik Laine had 44). Winnipeg smothered Minnesota in the opening round with waves of offense, getting three points or more from seven players in the five games, led by four goals and an assist from center Mark Scheifele and a pair of goals from Laine along with defenseman Tyler Myers. Hellebuyck did not face tremendous pressure for large stretches of the series but even though he was pulled from Game 3 he still finished with a .924 save percentage and a 1.93 goals against average. After the Wild won Game 3 by a 6-2 score, Hellebuyck posted back-to-back shutout victories, 2-0 and 5-0. Nashville: The Predators finished the regular season with eight players recording 40 or more points, including a pair of defensemen (Roman Josi and P.K. Subban). Forsberg lead the team with 64 points and Arvidsson led with 26 goals. Nashville had to go six games before eliminating Colorado, doing so emphatically Sunday with a 5-0 decision that included Pekka Rinne's fourth career playoff shutout and three points for the first time in 81 postseason games for center Nick Bonino. One aspect Nashville hopes to improve on from its first-round victory over Colorado is its second line, as Fiala, center Kyle Turris and forward Craig Smith combined for just five points. Forward Austin Watson and center Colton Sissons were fantastic in the first round, combining for seven goals and 14 points, while Rinne shook off a rough performance in Game 3 to stop 140-of-154 shots on goal (.909 SP). The pick: As befits a matchup of the teams with the league's top point totals, there simply isn't much difference across the board. The Jets were second in the NHL in goals and the Predators were seventh. Nashville was second in the league in fewest goals allowed and Winnipeg was fifth. I'm taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Winnipeg a 6* play. |
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04-27-18 | Raptors v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucks won Game 6 at home last night to send the Boston/Milwaukee series to a Game 7, as the home team has each of the first six games (5-1 ATS) in that matchup. The Wizards will look to "repeat that script" tonight when the host the Toronto Raptors at the Verizon Center. Toronto's 108-98 win over the Wizards in Game 5 gave the home team a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS mark in this series . DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points and handed out five assists to lead the top-seeded Raptors in that critical Game 5 win, while Delon Wright chipped in 18 points in 26 minutes off the bench. The Wizards had a chance in Game 5 but were outscored 29-20 in the 4th quarter, as they shot 8 of 24 in the final 12 minutes. John Wall was 2 of 6 in the fourth, while backcourt mate Bradley Beal missed five of six shots in the final stanza. Toronto: Head coach Dwane Casey discovered something down the stretch in Game 5 with an odd grouping of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, C.J. Miles, center Jonas Valanciunas (who had yet to play in the fourth quarter this series) and Wright. DeRozan scored 30 points before the fourth quarter while Wright scored 11 of his 18 points in the fourth, Valanciunas totaled six points and seven rebounds, helping the Raptors control the glass by a 15-12 margin in a game where they were outrebounded 50-35. Besides the relatively new lineup, the Raptors also reverted to its style of emphasizing three-point shooting. Toronto made 11 of 25 three-pointers, after attempting just 18 (made seven) in Game 4. Washington: The Wizards won Games 3 and 4 at home to even this series, before the Raptors seized a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday's win in Toronto. However, are confident they can force a do-or-die Game 7 with the Raptors. "We love our chances," PG John Wall told reporters of the eighth-seeded Wizards' quest to stave off elimination at home. "We're very confident." Wall is averaging 26.6-5.8-12.2 in teh series and his fellow All Star backcourt partner, Bradley Beal, is averaging 21.4 PPG. Five others are contributing between 9.4 and 1.4 PPG in the series but Washington could sure one of that group to "step up" here in Game 6. Kelly Oubre, who is 3-of-16 from three-point range in the series, might gain a larger role if fellow forward Otto Porter Jr. is unable to go. Porter has been wrestling with a bone bruise in his left leg and will be reassessed Friday. Head coach Scott Brooks knows he needs more from Porter, who averaged 14.7 points this season but has been held to single digits three times in the series. "We need Otto to be more than a 9-10 point scorer for us to win this series," Brooks told reporters. The pick: Here's the bottom line. As noted, the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the series so far, but that's only part of the storyline. The Wizards come into this game having won their last eight playoff games in the nation's capital and have yet to lose to Toronto at home in a postseason game! Enough said. Make Washington a 10* play. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics will be in Milwaukee for Game 6 of this first round series against the Bucks, a series in which the home team has won each of the first five games (4-1 ATS). The second-seeded Celtics took a 3-2 series lead with a 92-87 win at home Tuesday night, meaning the host Bucks face a do-or-die Game 6 tonight. Al Horford switched from power forward to center and led Boston with 22 points and 14 rebounds as the Celtics survived an old-fashioned defensive contest. "We needed to make an adjustment and do something," Horford told reporters of the lineup changes, which included the return from injury of guard Marcus Smart and a rare start for rookie forward Semi Ojeleye. "Coach (Brad Stevens) saw that and he went with his gut and that, and a combination of Marcus Smart, I think paid off for us tonight." The Bucks shot well over 50 percent from the floor in the previous three games before being held to 36.8 percent in Game 5, with Giannis Antetokounmpo being limited to just 10 shot attempts. Boston: Smart had been out since March 11 with a thumb injury but added an instant dose of defense and toughness that Boston lacked while allowing an average of 110 points in losing games 3 and 4. Smart only scored nine points in 25 minutes of work but was a force on the defensive end. Ojeleye had just five points in his 31 minutes was one of the main reason the "Greek Freak" was quieted. Boston was outplayed in Games 3 and 4 in Milwaukee but during the regular season was an impressive 27-13 SU on the road. Milwaukee: "It's on me. I had open shots, but they wasn't my shots," Antetokounmpo told the media. "I think my teammates did a great job finding me, but coming the next game, Game 6, I've got to be more aggressive and make more plays." Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 23 points but was just 9-of-21 from the floor after shooting 40-for-65 through the first four games of the series. Antetokounmpo is averaging in the series and Middleton. Interim Bucks coach Joe Prunty said his team needs a better all-around effort if it wants to keep its season alive for another day. "It's not just one guy, it's everyone we call on," Prunty said. "We need them to come in and play solid defense, we need guys to come in and knock down shots." The pick: A loss tonight by Milwaukee would not only end the Bucks' season but also mark the final game played at the Bradley Center, their home since 1988. The team is moving into a new facility located right next door next season. The Bucks are looking for their first series victory since 2001 and it's also heard to ignore that they never won a series after trailing 0-2, going 0-17 in such situations. Meanwhile, the Celtics have never lost a series they led 2-0, winning all 35 times going into their current situation. League history tells us that teams are 19-276 all-time when trailing a series 0-2, including this postseason. Will the Bucks make that 19-277? Maybe in Game 7, but not tonight! Lay the points and make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up:The Toronto Maple Leafs have faced series' deficits of 2-0 and 3-1 against the Boston Bruins but the Maple Leafs staved off elimination with a 4-3 win at Boston in Game 5, before prevailing 3-1 on Monday night. Toronto has not won a postseason series since 2004 but the Maple Leafs can end that a streak tonight when they visit the Boston Bruins in a winner-take-all Game 7 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. It appeared the Bruins would make it a short series after winning the opening two games by a combined 12-4 but the Bruins now find themselves in a Game 7. Toronto: Frederik Andersen entered the series with a 10-1-0 record against Boston, but he was pierced early and often before turning in superb performances in the past two outings, making 42 saves in Game 5 and turning aside 32 of 33 shots in Game 6. Mitch Marner is riding the momentum of a stellar series, delivering the tie-breaking score Monday to give him two goals and six assists during a five-game point streak. Leo Komarov is ready to return after sitting out four games but coach Mike Babcock will wait until Wednesday to make a decision on him. Boston: The Bruins insist they remain confident. “If anybody would have told us at the start of the year that we’d be going into a Game 7 in the first round at home, we would have taken it," Boston forward Brad Marchand said. "Whatever has happened in the last six games doesn’t mean anything. ... It’s going to be a challenge. They’re a great team and they’ve played really well in this series. It’s gonna be fun and we’re looking forward to it.” Boston's top line of Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak amassed a staggering 20 points in the first two games of the series, but the unit has been held off the scoresheet in each of the three losses while posting a minus-16 in those games. The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in OT. Now, five years later, Toronto was in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. However, the Maple Leafs needed to only look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before winning Games 5 and 6 only to become the first team in history to cough up a three-goal third-period lead in Game 7 ( blew a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds!). This series has been eerily reminiscent of that 2013 meeting. Why should it end differently than five years ago? After converting on 5 of 10 power plays in the first two games, Boston is 1-for-9 on the power play over the past four games. What's more, while Toronto's Andersen has been 'lights out' the last two games, note that Boston goalie ruins G Tuukka Rask is 5-12 in elimination games.I took the Maple Leafs in Game 5 and in Game 6, saying " this series is headed back to Boston for a Game 7." Why should I back off here? I will slightly though, by taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Toronto a 6* play. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics 'held serve' at Boston in Games 1 and 2, with the Bucks' returning the favor in Games 3 and 4 at Milwaukee. The two teams will both battle history Tuesday night at TD Garden in Game 5. The Bucks are looking for their first series victory since 2001 but have never won a series after trailing 0-2, going 0-17 in such situations. Meanwhile, the Celtics have never lost a series they led 2-0, winning all 35 times going into their current situation. League history tells us that teams are 19-274 all-time when trailing a series 0-2, including the Portland Trail Blazers going out in four straight against the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2018 playoffs (the Spurs, T-wolves and Bucks can add to that sorry history by failing to win their respective series this postseason). Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo is enjoying his time in the spotlight and his reputation for being a clutch player, which was evidenced when he tipped in the winning basket with 5.1 seconds left in Game 4 to give the Bucks a series-tying 104-102 victory. Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists through four games and small forward Khris Middleton has been the second half of Milwaukee's "dynamic duo," averaging 25.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Jabari Parker, the 2014 draft's overall No. 2 pick, came up big in the back-to-back victories by averaging 16.5 points, six rebounds, two blocked shots and 1.5 steals, after averaging one point and three rebounds with no blocks or steals in the first two games. The Bucks set a franchise record with 14 blocks in Game 4, with 21-year-old backup C Thon Maker swatting away five shots for the second straight game. Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown continues to excel while picking up the scoring slack in Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 34 points, eight rebounds and three steals in Game 4, his second 30-point effort of the series (he's averaging a team-high 23.8 points in the series). Point guard Terry Rozier scored 23 points in each of Boston's two home wins came back to earth by averaging 9.5 points on 5-of-19 shooting in the two losses in Milwaukee. Marcus Smart (thumb) is eyeing a return for Game 6 if he gets cleared for contact. Boston returns home after shooting 41.4% and 40.0% in the two losses in Milwaukee. The pick: Is it really as simple as coming home for Boston to regain its mojo? Can the Bucks reverse their awful postseason history while in the process, end Boston's perfect record of going 35-0 in series in which the Celtics have gone up 2-0? The winner of this game can't take the series tonight but the winner will put itself in prime to position to win. Antetokounmpo is the series' best player plus I believe Milwaukee is the better team with Irving sidelined for Boston. Make the Bucks an 8* play. |
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04-23-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 during teh regular season and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Meanwhile, Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves failed to get their offense going in tteh first two games of this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needed to get more involved, as he had totaled just 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season. Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2004 gave the Timberwolves all the juice they needed to win Game 3 and get back into their first-round Western Conference series against the top-seeded Rockets. Minnesota shot 50 percent from the floor, 55.6 percent from three-point range (15 of 27) and handed out 29 assists against seven turnovers in Game 3 while rolling to a 121-105 win. Karl-Anthony Towns enjoyed his best game of the series with 18 points and 16 rebounds plus the team's best player, Jimmy Butler, scored 28 points after averaging 12.0 in the first two games. Harden scored 29 points in Game 3 to bounce back from that 2-of-18 shooting effort in Game 2 but the Rockets head to Game 4 shooting just 31.5% from three-point range. Houston: Yes, Harden bounced back in Game 3 but Eric Gordon continued to struggle. Gordon averaged 18.0 PPG during the regular season, is averaging just 10.3 PPG in the postseason on 28.2 percent shooting and is 6-of-26 from 3-point range (26.1%). The Rockets have noted that they now need to make an adjustment. Houston wants to get back to its defensive approach and limit Minnesota as it did in the first two games of the series. The Timberwolves averaged 91.5 points per game in the first two games and shot just 38.8 percent from the floor in Game 2. "We knew that was going to be a lot more comfortable coming home," Paul said. "They make a lot more 3s tonight, 15 for 27, and we got to be better defensively. We were just opening up the lane and letting Teague drive and all the other guys, so we know we got to be better." Minnesota: Butler and Towns finally came through but again, the team shot 50 percent, including 15 of 27 on threes. Starting PG Teague also had his best effort of the series in Game 3, scoring 23 points and handing out eight assists. Teague is averaging 15.3 PPG in the series and his backup, Derrick Rose, is averaging 14.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting after averaging a modest 5.8 PPG in nine games with Minnesota in nine games at the end of the regular season. The pick: Only the Warriors scored more points during the regular season than the Rockets' 112.4 PPG. However, Houston has scored 104, 102 and 105 points in the first three games of this series (that's just 103.7 PPG, almost 10 point less than the team's regular season average). Towns not only got more involved on the offensive end (his lack of shots had been a topic all series), as he engaged defenders down low. At the other end of the court, the Timberwolves' defensive effort became contagious team-wide with power forward Taj Gibson defending James Harden one-on-one, resulting in a poor shot attempt. Minnesota has been able to harass Houston into poor shooting from behind the arc and if that continues, this series will be tied at two apiece. That's my bet. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-22-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors struggled down the stretch of the regular season due to injuries, losing 10 of their final 17 games. However, Golden State got a break in drawing the Kawhi Leonard-less Spurs in the first round. The Warriors have won and covered each of the first three games of this best-of-seven series and on Sunday, can sweep the San Antonio Spurs out of the postseason for the second straight year. The Warriors knocked the Spurs out in the Western Conference finals last spring and are trying to do the same two rounds earlier this time around Sunday afternoon at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The teams could not have had a more contrasting series over the first three games, as for everything the Spurs have done wrong, Golden State has done right. It's been a totally dominating performance so far for the defending NBA champions. Golden State: The Warriors are without Stephen Curry (he is out rehabbing a knee injury) plus they did see Kevin Durant and Shaun Livingston exit late in Game 3 after rolling ankles, although neither injury is considered serious. "We want to not come back, limit our road travel and expand our time to rest so we can get our best guys healthy, like Steph (Curry), KD and Shaun," shooting guard Klay Thompson told reporters. "That’s our motivation." The Warriors have limited San Antonio to an average of 96.7 points in the series and the defensive effort of All-Star forward Draymond Green is the key. "He's been fantastic, defensively," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Green. "He’s been all over the place. This is a team that you have to disrupt. They're excellent with their execution ... and Draymond is as good as anybody I’ve ever seen in terms of recognizing a play and blowing it up." Meanwhile, KD (27.3 PPG) and Thompson (25.7 PPG on 63.3% shooting, including 65% from beyond the arc), are handling the offensive end of the court. San Antonio: LaMarcus Aldridge is being asked to carry the team in the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard, who is away from the team while rehabbing a quad injury (does anyone really know what's up?). Aldridge turned in his second straight double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3. Veteran PG Tony Parker came off the bench and enjoyed his best game of the series with 16 points in 17 minutes on Thursday, while fellow PG Patty Mills is stepping up as well, averaging 17.5 points in the last two games after scoring just five points in Game 1. The pick: "Our guys focused in and we came in and we played," said Aldridge after Game 3. "It's been the same thing. We just aren't making shots that are there" He's right about that, as the Spurs are shooting a woeful 24.1% on threes through the first three games. However, this is a prideful bunch and I expect a great effort from the Spurs in this one. Upset alert? Just maybe but let's take the points and make San Antonio an 8* play. |
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04-21-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins blew a chance at capturing the East's No. 1 seed when they lost a home contest to the Panthers in the team's final game of the regular season. However, The Bruins regrouped quickly and won the first two games of their series with the Maple Leafs, 5-1 and 7-3. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3, where the Maple Leafs were able to reverse the momentum of the series with a 4-2 home win on Monday night. Toronto had a chance to level the best-of-seven series in Game 4 on Thursday night but come to Boston for Saturday's Game 5 lamenting a missed opportunity in Thursday's 3-1 setback, despite the Bruins playing without the team's top-line center, Patrice Bergeron (he was a late-scratch with an upper body injury). Toronto: The Maple Leafs will receive a boost with the return of center Nazem Kadri, a 32-goal scorer during the regular season who received a three-game suspension for a dangerous hit on Boston's Tommy Wingels in the series opener. Kadri's return will mean a demotion for Tomas Plekanec, who scored the team's only goal Thursday (but it was his first since he was acquired from Montreal). Auston Matthews had 63 points in 62 regular season games this year but has just one goal in teh series, being held off the scoresheet in three of the four games. The team's leading goal score, van Riensdyk (36), has a modest two goals in the series, his only points. Boston: Bergeron, who is up for his fifth Selke Trophy as the game's best defensive forward, collected five assists in the first two games but with Riley Nash taking his place, Brad Marchand scored a goal and David Pastrnak continued his brilliant play with two assists to bump his series point total up to 11. Bergeron skated on his own Friday, which was called a "positive" by head coach Bruce Cassidy, who said he will make a decision on the four-time Selke Trophy winner's status at Saturday's morning skate. Goaltender Tuukka Rask has been overshadowed by the offensive exploits through much of the series but he answered the call in Game 4 by turning aside 31 of 32 shots in what Marchand termed a "phenomenal game. He’s one of the best goalies in the world and he gives us an opportunity to win every night.” The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in overtime. Five years later, Toronto is in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. The Maple Leafs can look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before blowing a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of Game 7! Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves have failed to get their offense going in this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needs to get more involved, as he's totaled 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season. Houston: The Rockets' supporting cast stepped up to help Harden on Wednesday, with Gerald Green coming off the bench for 21 points and Trevor Ariza adding 15. Fellow All Star Chris Paul added 27 points and eight assists in Game 2, after a so-so Game 1 in which he shot just 5 of 14 with 14 points. All-in-all, the Rockets only shot 36.5 percent from the floor in Game 2 and James Harden was limited to 12 points, yet Houston won by 20 after squeaking by with a three-point win in Game 1. "We haven't played very well so far," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told the Houston Chronicle. "It'll be crazy up there. They haven't been in the playoffs for a long time. It will be a very loud crowd. We have to do our part, play defense and take the crowd out of it. We have to be ready for all they got. Whatever they have left, we're going to get it full throttle right when we get on the floor to start the game." Minnesota: The T-wolves know all about "not playing well!" Not only has Towns been a "no-show" but the team's best all-around player, Jimmy Butler, has averaged 12.0 PPG on 41.2% shooting (averaged 22.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting in the regular season). Minnesota was actually the aggressor early in Game 2, leading after the first quarter. However, the T-wolves shot 38.8 percent from the floor for teh game. Swingman Andrew Wiggins scored 13 poinst and was one of just three players on the team to score in double figures (Butler had 11 and Nemanja Bjelica scored a team-high 16 points, after going scoreless in Game 1). The pick: Minnesota remains confident despite being in an 0-2 hole and is excited to play the franchise's first home playoff game since Game 5 of the Western Conference finals in 2004. "It feels good," Timberwolves swingman Andrew Wiggins told reporters after Friday's practice. "Houston took care of business up there and now we’ve got to do the same up here. I know the fans will be excited, the atmosphere will be crazy and the whole team, we're confident. We're ready." Minnesota was one of the league's best teams at home with a 30-11 record this year and a loss here, all but ends the series. Minnesota can draw confidence from the fact that the Rockets are shooting only 29.2 percent from three-point range in the series. The home dog 'barks' in this one. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-20-18 | Raptors +2 v. Wizards | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Raptors will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven first-round Eastern Conference series when they visit the Washington Wizards on Friday. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. "We need a better start," Washington head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "All five guys need to lock in defensively. They've gotten free for a lot of jump shots, and give them credit, they made them. ... But we've got to be a little better. We've got to have a better start. It's not the only thing, but we've got to start there and then go from there." Toronto: DeRozan was the star in Game 2 plus Valanciunas outplayed his counterparts on Washington up front but PG Lowry also added a double-double with 13 points and 12 assists. Toronto was the East's highest scoring team during the regular season (111.7 PPG) and appears comfortable being the hunted after winning the East with a franchise-high 59 wins (only the Rockets won more games this season). Washington: PG John Wall averaged 26.0 & 12.0 APG in the first two games but fellow guard Bradley Beal (also an All Star) is off to a slow start offensively in the series. He was held to nine points on 3-of-11 shooting in Game 2 and returns home averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting 11 of 28 (39.3%) in two games. A bright spot for the Wizards was reserve Mike Scott, who had 20 points off the bench and was on the floor when Washington rallied in Game 2. Head coach Scott Brooks may opt to go with the 6-foot-8 Scott in place of 6-11 Marcin Gortat, who has struggled at both ends thus far. With the Wizards down 0-2, he has little to lose. The pick: Clearly, the Wizards face a "must win" in this contest but one wonders if Washington can match Toronto's overall firepower or the team's depth (see the contributions of Miles and Wright, above). However, as noted above, the Raptors seem comfortable playing the role of the "Big Dog!" Back in 2015, the No. 5 Wizards -- led by veteran Paul Pierce -- pulled off a what was a mild upset of the No. 4 Raptors, closing out the series with a 31-point rout. Not yet ready to predict a Toronto sweep but I will make the Raptors a 10* play here in Game 3. |
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04-20-18 | Cavs +1 v. Pacers | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers scored just 80 points in a Game 1 loss to the Pacers and needed LeBron James to come out aggressive in Game 2. LBJ did just that, scoring the team's first 16 points on his way to a 46-point effort. However, the Cavs barely hung on in a 100-97 Game 2 win. The series is now tied at one apiece (although the Pacers are 2-0 ATS), as the venue switches to Indiana. The Pacers dominated the first quarter en route to a Game 1 victory and remain confident heading home despite the tight loss in Game 2. "We really wanted to go home 2-0 but we got one on the road," Indiana center Myles Turner told reporters. "We did our jobs. I can't wait to be back in front of the Indy fans. I hope these guys are ready, I know they are." Cleveland: The Cavs were embarrassed in Game 1 and head coach Tyronn Lue decided to make a lineup change for Game 2. He inserted veterans Kyle Korver and JR Smith into the starting lineup in place of Jeff Green and Rodney Hood. Korver went 4-of-8 from three-point range to help space the floor. Smith did little offensively (just five points) but after shooting 38.5% as team (including 8 of 34 on threes), the Cavs connected on 50.7% of their shots, making 11 of 28 three pointers. Lue said he plans to stick with his Game 2 lineup in Game 3 and praising the job Smith did on Victor Oladipo, the Pacers leading scorer, and the fact Korver took two charges from Oladipo. Indiana: Victor Oladipo scored a game-high 32 points in Game 1 but was limited to 22 in Game 2, although he did make 9-of-18 shots.Oladipo is averaging 27.0-4.5-5.0 in the first two games with Turner adding 17.0 & 6.5. The Pacers have shown excellent depth with eight players getting 17-minutes plus, although all five starters are averaging 32-plus minutes. The Pacers shot 52.6 percent from the floor in Game 2 but struggled to a 6-of-22 (27.3%) effort from three-point range, while committing 17 turnovers. The pick; I realize the Cavs have been an awful defensive team for most of the season but that hasn't been the team's problem in this series. After all, the Pacers have scored 98 and 97 points in the first two games. The Cavs finished fifth during the regular season in both scoring (110.9 PPG) and FG percentage (47.6%) and in this pivotal Game 3, I expect the Cavs to bring their "A game." After all, LBJ has never played on a team that has lost a first round series. Why start now, when he's coming off arguably, his best regular season ever? Make the Cavs an 8* play. |
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04-19-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Pelicans are in the playoffs for just the second time in Anthony Davis' six-year career. His first visit came back in 2015 when the Warriors swept them in an opening round series, despite Davis averaging 31.5 & 11.0. Davis' second time around in the postseason has so far, gone much better. The Pelicans have won the first two games of the first round series with the Trail Blazers in Portland. Davis has averaged 28.5 & 13.5 in the first two games while combo guard Jrue Holiday and veteran PG Rajan Rondo have risen to the challenge, as well. Portland entered the series having won 21 of their last 24 home games but now find themselves in an 0-2 'hole.' Star PG Damian Lillard (26.9 PPG in the regular season) has been unable to get untracked in the first two games, averaging 17.5 PPG while shooting just 31.7 percent. Head coach Terry Stotts said his Portland squad has to return serve by accumulating road wins. "We've got to win two games in New Orleans, and hopefully it's the next two," Stotts told reporters. "It's easy math - we've got to go and win two in New Orleans, and I feel we're very capable of winning both games." Portland: "Coming into the playoffs, you know teams are going to lock in, and they're going to try and make the game hard for you," Lillard told reporters afterr the Game 2 loss. "And I give a lot of credit to them for executing their game plan but the opportunities I do get, I've just got to be better. It's as simple as that." McCollum (20.5) has been the team's leading scorer but starting center Jusuf Nurkic (in the regular season) was limited to 15 minutes on Tuesday due to suffering a leg bruise in the third quarter. Nurkic needs to be healthy, as he's the only consistent scorer outside of Lillard and McCollum. New Orleans: Jrue Holiday scored a career playoff-best 33 points in Tuesday's 111-102 victory and is averaging 27.0-5.0-5.5 in the team's two wins. As for PG Rondo, he is reminding all why he's earned the tag "Playoff Rondo." He has once again elevated his play, averaging 11.0-9.0-13.0. Head coach Alvin Gentry appreciates the calmness he provides to younger less-experienced players. Also, let's not forget the contributions of 6-10 forward Mirotic, who has averaged 16.5 & 9.5 to give A.D. some 'cover' up front. The pick: The Blazers are known for being a strong home team but Portland did go 21-20 SU on the road during the regular season. If there is ever a "must win" for a team in a series other than when one is facing elimination with a loss, it's Game 3 of a series in which a team is down 0-2. I'm a big fan of Lillard and I believe he keeps his team 'alive' in this series by leading them to a Game 3 win. Make Portland a 10* play. |