The set-up: Both teams return to bowl action after missing last year. Both teams have a freshman QB under center today. Both were forced into the starters role in the middle of the campaign for different reasons. WMU is averaging 33.2 PPG, while allowing 33.2. Kaleb Eleby helped WMU end a three-gam losing streak with a 28-21 win over NIU in the regular season finale. Eleby finished with 285 passing yards. BYU is averaging only 25.4 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end, allowing just 21.7. Zach Wilson finished with 1,261 yards passing with a 10/6 TD:INT over six starts for the Cougars. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while WMU is 8-4 ATS in is last 12 following a home win. This one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: South Florida opened the season 7-0, but it then lost five straight to finish 7-5. With a chance to erase the disappointing second half with a third straight bowl victory, I think the Bulls will pull off the minor upset today. Marshall last played on December 1st, a 41-20 loss to the Hokies which snapped a three-game win streak. A three week layoff isn’t going to help the Herds’ chemistry. USF will be leaning heavily on the RB duo of Jordan Cronkrite and Johnny Ford, shoe combined for over 1,800 rushing yards and 17 TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite and already 0-2 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a loss of 17 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Ohio is 7-3 and the Boilermakers are 6-5. The Bobcats come in off a narrow 63-61 win over Detroit on Saturday. Teyvion Kirk finished with 16 points and seven boards for Ohio, which would go on to outscore Detroit 30-20 in the paint. Purdue comes into this one reeling, loser of five of its last seven after a sharp 4-0 start. Most recently the Boilermakers fell to Texas and Notre Dame. Clearly the competition has been stiff, but I do think that the door is open for Ohio to keep this game competitive as well. Note that the Boilermakers shot just 9 of 29 from range in the loss to the Irish.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a win by six points or less, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses. Grab the point and expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are pretty terrible. Grand Canyon is 5-5, while Northern Iowa is 4-6. The Antelopes though are 0-2 in true road games, while the Panther are 2-0 at home. Northern Iowa average 67 PPG and it allows 71. Grand Canyon is averaging 75 PPG and it’s allowing 72. 

The pick: On paper coach Marjele’s Antelopes have the advantage. But I thick Grand Canyon’s numbers are skewed by the level of competition to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Northern Iowa is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a two games SU/ATS losing streak. Play on the home side.

10* play

The set-up: SDSU lost its final three games, but it comes in healthy to this one and it’s loaded with talent and experience. The bottom line is I think that the Aztecs are the more “complete” team through all three phases. Ohio comes in off two straight wins to end the regular season over Buffalo and Akron. The problem for the Bobcats’ high-powered ground attack, is that SDSU’s strength on the defensive side of the ball is against he run. In fact the Aztecs rank fourth nationally in stopping the run. In total SDSU allows just 94.5 YPG rushing. SDSU death with injury issues all year to key offensive pieces, but they’re both back healthy here (QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington). These two will have something to prove in this bowl.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SDSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a double digit fav, while Ohio is only 3-5 ATS in its last eight after a win by 21 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs have gotten back on track of late, most recently destroying the 76ers 123-96 at home on Monday. The Magic return home after knocking off the Jazz 96-89 in Mexico City on Saturday. Note though that this is a big time “in-season” revenge game for SA after the Magic upset them at home 117-110 back on November 4th. SA averages 110.6 PPG and it concedes 110.5. Orlando averages only 104 PPG, while allowing 106.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SA is already 6-1 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Orlando is only 14-26 ATS in its last 40 off an upset win as an underdog. Play on the Spurs.

10* play

The set-up: Buffalo is 10-0 and Syracuse is 7-3. The Orange will be motivated to snap the Bulls perfect record and I think the home side will deliver the goods. The Bulls return many of the players from a team that went 27-9 last year and which upset No. 3 Arizona in the NCAA Tourney. The Bulls average 112.5 points per 100 possessions. The Orange average 109.9 points per 100 possessions.

The pick: Buffalo has been playing at an extremely high level, but there’s no doubt that this is a difficult road venue. Looking a little closer and we discover that the Bulls are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after eight or more consecutive wins, while Syracuse is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think LBJ and company will bounce back after a 128-110 road loss in the nation’s capital on Sunday. The Nets on the other hand look ready for a letdown in my estimation after their big 144-127 win over the Hawks on Sunday. The 144 points posted was impressive, but they 127 conceded to the ATL is unacceptable and won’t lead to success over the long-term obviously. LA averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.6. The Nets may have won four in a row, but they’re average 111 PPG and allowing 111.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Brooklyn is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly the Thunder are the better team and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise. I simply feel that the high-powered home side will get caught classically looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this evening. The Bulls come in with confidence as well after a big 98-93 road win in San Antonio on Saturday. The Thunder on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their 110-104 home win over the Clippers. Chicago will also be playing with confidence that it has in fact already beaten OKC this year, 114-112 at home back on December 7. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up as more of a competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while OKC is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Nick Foles is back under center for the Eagles and with nothing to lose except another game, I like the defending champs to give the Rams everything they can handle this weekend. Philly lost 29-23 in OT to Dallas last weekend, while the Rams look very susceptible after their poor 15-6 road loss in Chicago. The Eagles only average 21.6 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing 22.7. The Rams average 32.7 PPG, but they allow 24.1. 

The pick: After their red hot start, the Rams appear to be running out of gas. Especially RB Todd Gurley. With the offense becoming more one-dimensional than ever, LA could struggle to post the same offensive efficiency down the stretch. Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are still 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. I’m grabbing all those points!

10* play

The set-up: I like the Bears to take care of business at home today. The Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 34-20 win over hapless Atlanta last weekend, while Chicago enters off a hard-fought and impressive 15-6 home win over the high-flying Rams. If LA couldn’t move the ball last week, I have a hard time seeing Aaron Rodgers and his patchwork unit posting much production either. Overall the Packers average 24.2 PPG and they allow 23.6. The Bears are averaging 27.6 PPG and they’re allowing just 19. That ranks third in the league. The Packers are simply too one-dimensional to fool this talented Bears defense. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road underdog, while Chicago is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite. With a chance to end the Packers’ season, look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for an outright upset victory for the hungry Clippers. Oklahoma City looks ripe for the picking here after its 109-98 loss in Denver just last night. The Clippers are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.6 per 100 possessions. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories, but the unit looked “gassed” last night and I think it’ll struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in revenging a loss vs. an opponent in which it scored 110 or more points in, while the Thunder are still only 40-47 ATS in their last 87 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Tulane was 6-6 and UL Lafayette finished 7-6. The Ragin Cajuns lost 30-19 to App State in the Sun Belt title game, but I think Lafayette will keep this one close. These teams played in 2016 and the Green Wave came from behind to post the 41-39 OT win. The Green Wave though average just 25.7 PPG. Tulane struggles against the pass defensively as well, allowing 265.2 YPG. UL Lafayette QB Andre Nunez has 2,136 passing yards and a 64.4 percent completion percentage. Overall Lafayette allows 33.7 PPG, but the unit catches a big break here facing the Green Wave’s impotent offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UL Lafayette is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, while Tulane is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: FAU comes in off a 68-64 win over Mercer to improve to 72. The Owls average 77.8 PPG and they allow 68.4. Jailyn Ingram averages 19.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 apg. Arkansas State comes in hungry after falling 72-56 to Minnesota this past Saturday. Overall the Red Wolves are averaging 74.9 PPG and allowing 79.1, but a lot of that has to do with the level of competition in the early going in my opinion. Ty Cockfield averages 21.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg. I think home court will prove to be big here.

The pick: The Red Wolves are the “hungrier” team. Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less, while Arkansas State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after failing to score 58 or more points in its previous outing. Play on Arkansas State.

10*

The set-up: The Eastern Washington Eagles are just 1-6 and the San Francisco Dons are 8-1. Clearly this is a major mismatch, but I think the home side is going to get caught looking past its lowly opponent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Eagles to sneak in through. Eastern Washington has lost three straight, most recently a 74-67 setback to NDSU, led by 25 points from Jacob Davidson. Overall the Eagles average 62.9 PPG. The Dons average 80.2 PPG and they come in off a very satisfying 79-60 win over the Cal Golden Bears. Can anyone say letdown spot? From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for the underdog.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more straight road losses, while the Dons are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of pick.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly the Mavs are the better team, but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum as well, as they broke a four-game slide with a 106-98 win over the Nuggets on Saturday. John Collins had 30 points and 12 boards in the win. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 5-2 ATS this year after playing two straight at home and 4-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge an in-season loss to an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Colorado’s been rolling (7-1 overall and five straight wins) and because of that, I believe it’ll get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. The Lobos are 4-3 and they’ll be focused and eager to get back on track after back-to-back setbacks at the hands of New Mexico State and St. Mary’s. 

The pick: Colorado is about to being a stretch of six straight games on the road and note that the Buffs are just 9-26 on the road the last three seasons. Take it for what you will as well, but the Buffs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite or pick. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Sacramento was a bad team last year and clearly it’s made big strides this season though. The Kings are 13-12, while the once mighty Bulls are just 6-21. Chicago has dealt with injury issues before the season even started though, so expectations going in were low. The Bulls have been getting healthier and they’ve looked better of late and I think they’ll catch this young Kings’ team flat-footed as they finish off their lengthy Eastern swing. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Sacramento is already just 2-4 ATS this season after covering three of its last four against the spread, while Chicago is already 8-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: The Pelicans have dominated this series of late and I think that’ll again be the case here (won three straight in the series, including a 118-103 road win in Detroit last Feb.) While the Pelicans are just 5-8 ATS on the road, they’re a solid 7-6 SU overall. The Pelicans average 118.1 PPG and they allow 115.9. Detroit’s lost three straight and it’s just 6-8 ATS at home this year. The Pistons average 109.4 PPG and they allow 109.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 40-31 ATS in its last 71 after having lost two of its last three games SU, while Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I’m going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Both teams come in off victories. St. Louis enters off a satisfying 1-0 road win over the Jets, while Vancouver comes in off a 5-3 home win over Nashville. The Canucks average 2.84 GPG and they allow 3.42. St. Louis is averaging 2.85 GPG and it’s allowing 3.22. 

The pick: These two horrible teams are pretty evenly matched, but note that Vancouver is 3-1 (+2.9 units) in its last four after a win by two goals or more, while St. Louis is just 3-4 (-2 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. Play on the Canucks on the puck line.

10* play

The set-up: The Colts play with revenge here after falling 37-34 in OT at home to the Texans in Week 4. Houston’s been almost unbeatable since that game, but Andrew Luck and Indianapolis has made great strides this year on both sides of the ball. The Colts were stymied 6-0 last week vs. Jacksonville, but there’s no reason not to think that Luck and company can’t bounce back and return to their normal form. The Texans continue to find ways to win, but I think they’ll have their hands full today vs. a Colts team that will be desperate for an upset and to avenge the earlier setback. These teams are very evenly matched.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two straight SU home victories. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a very satisfying 129-110 win over the Cavs just last night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back to back on the road. The Pacers also played and won last night (112-90 in Orlando), but clearly home court advantage in the second game of the back-to-back scenario favors Indiana greatly this evening. Note as well that Indiana plays with revenge after falling 111-110 in the first match-up of the season just last week.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is still only 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of the last seven ATS, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five after falling to cover four or five of the last six ATS. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Thunder are 16-7 overall, while the Bulls are just 5-20. I think the hungry home side though will catch the Thunder complacent and flat footed Thunder team which comes in off an epic come from behind 114-112 win over Brooklyn in their latest action, a game which saw Paul George explode for 47 points and a game winning three-pointer. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Bulls are terrible, but they’ll be eager to break a seven-game slide, most recently falling 96-90 to Indiana. Lauri Markkanen played will in his second game with 21 points and ten boards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine asa  road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog in the same points range. I think OKC finally has a letdown here and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, this one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points.

Bulls GOM. 

The set-up: Jacksonville plays with revenge. It’s also looking to put a nail in the coffin to the Titans season with a victory here. The Jags slowed won the Colts in last week’s 6-0 win. They came up short at home in September vs. the Titans, falling 9-6, but with nothing to lose, I think the visitors will once again keep it competitive this week. The Titans could barely get past the Jets last week at home (26-22) and I think they’ll have their hands full today against this revenge minded and much improved Jags’ defensive unit. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Jacksonville is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six in revenging an extremely close loss of three points or less, while Tennessee is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this season.) Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Iowa State has won eight of the last ten in this series, but I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor this time around. After four straight wins, including an 81-59 victory over NDSU on Monday, I think Iowa State suffers a letdown here finally. The Cyclones allow only 61.9 PPG, but I think they’ll have their hands full today against a Hawkeyes team desperate to avoid a three-game skid. Iowa has been a beast on the offensive end though, scoring 80.8 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a SU loss by 20 or more points, while Iowa State is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 on the road. Play on Iowa.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the 5-1 TCU Horned Frogs vs. the 6-3 Mustangs and in my opinion, this spread could easily be a lot larger. TCU has gotten healthier over the last two weeks, with the return of forward Kouat Noi and guard Jaylen Fisher. “[Fisher has] made our offense better without shooting at a high, high percentage,” head coach Jamie Dixon noted. “He has a real good understanding of where other guys on the floor are at. He’s one of our best guys at playing without the ball. His cuts and his movement, that’s what makes us better with him.” SMU has won four straight, but the level of competition gets called into question, most recently a 79-67 win over Oral Roberts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home and only 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with winning records, while TCU is a solid 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Play on TCU.

10*

The set-up: I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up. The Clippers posted a 129-126 win over New Orleans on Monday, while the Grizzlies will be the “hungrier” team here after falling 103-95 in Philadelphia in their latest action. Note that this is a revenge game as well after the Clippers posted the 112-107 OT him win earlier in the year. LA is primed for a letdown here at the end of its tough four game road trip. Memphis on the other hand comes in focused and desperate after losing four of its last five.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 3-5 ATS already this season as a road dog of six points or less, while Memphis is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Play on the Grizzlies.

10*

The set-up: The Kings are 11-11 and the Suns are 4-19. The Kings enter off a satisfying 111-110 home win over Indiana and I think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Suns won’t be lacking any motivation obviously after the terrible start to the year, most recently a 120-96 setback at the Lakers on Sunday. Phoenix took three of four in this series last year and I think it’ll keep it competitive here as well. The Kings average 114.3 PPG and they allow 117.1. The Suns average 103 PPG and they allow 113.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a close home win by three points or less, while Phoenix is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 after falling to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Both teams played last night, meaning that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Clippers come in off a loss to Dallas and they look ripe for the picking. The Pelicans enter off a 119-110 win in Charlotte and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are already just 2-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less, while New Orleans is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite and interestingly 3-1 ATS vs. the Pacific division. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: These teams are very evenly matched. The Steelers missed RB LeVeon Bell last week and they’re going to again today as well. After winning three straight, the Steelers came up short in Denver last weekend. LA though enters off a blowout win over the Cardinals and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that veteran pivot Phillip Rivers can’t carry that momentum over here facing this Steelers unit which struggled last weekend. 

The pick: Note as well that LA is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a two game home stand, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this season. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: The 5-2 Washington Huskies aren’t going to take the 6-1 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos for granted here. And that’s because the Gauchos have won five straight, most recently crushing Sacramento State 75-58 on Thursday. But the Huskies are the deeper and more skilled team from the Power Conference and I look for them to lay the hammer down here. Washington bounced back a two-point loss to Minnesota to destroy Eastern Washington 83-59 on Tuesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCSB is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after cover four of its last five ATS, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five after covering as a double digit favorite. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: These two teams are very familiar with each other. Last year Boise State won this exact game vs. this exact opponent 17-14 and I believe we’ll see a much bigger final discrepancy this time around. Fresno State comes in at 10-2 after last week’s 31-13 win over San Jon Jose State. Fresno State averages 36.3 PPG and it allows 13.5. Boise State comes in on top form, having won seven straight, most recently a 33-24 win over No. 21 ranked Utah State last weekend to advance to the Championship game. Overall the Broncos are averaging 37 PPG and allowing 22.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is already 4-2 ATS at home this year. These teams actually played at Albertsons Stadium earlier this season and the Broncos came out on top 24-17. This is a horrible match-up for Fresno State and I think that trend continues. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Warriors come in off a 131-128 road loss in Toronto, a setback which saw star Kevin Durant score 51 points. Golden State has been struggling without Stephen Curry in the line-up, but the proficient point guard makes his triumphant return to the Association this evening and I believe he’ll make all the difference. The Pistons present the perfect opponent to get back on track against and test themselves as Detroit comes in having won four straight. Level of competition though has to be taken into account during the Pistons recent mini-run, most recently a victory over the lowly Bulls. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG and it allows 111.5. Detroit averages 111.8 PPG and it allows 110.7. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim for the Pistons most nights.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous outing, while Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference home games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. “The Chef” returns and the defending champs return to form. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: K-State enters off a 77-58 home win over Lehigh, while Marquette comes in off a 76-55 home victory over Charleston Southern. K-State is a difficult opponent, as all five starters return from last year. Northwestern averages only 73.0 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 56.3. Those numbers (especially the defensive ones) are a bit “skewed” though in my opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Golden State won’t be going down without a fight, it’s 5-2 to open the year and it averages 75.3 PPG, while allowing 65.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but K-State is just 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games following three or more consecutive home games and interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big East. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 at home this season. Expect that unbeaten streak to extend. 

10*

The set-up: Its the inaugural Sun Belt Conference title game and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl is at stake. Am I call for an outright upset? I am not. However, I do think the Ragin Cajuns can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Louisiana Lafayette won its final three games to earn its spot here, while App State defeated Troy State to advance. Lafayette averages 33.7 PPG. Clearly it’s not going to be a cake walk as the Mountaineers have won four straight since a 34-14 setback to Georgia Southern. App State gets the job done with a strong run, averaging 242.5 YPG, while racking up 27 TDs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UL Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a record above the .500 mark. Both will be looking to establish the run. This one is going to be much tighter than what Las Vegas wants us to think. grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the PAC 12 Championship and I’m expecting a blowout. The No. 17 Utah Utes face the No. 16 Washington Huskies. The Utes enter off a 35-27 win over BYU, while the Huskies earned a 28-15 road victory over a tough WSU team. The Huskies have dominated this series for a long time, going 11-1 the last 12, including a convincing 21-7 road victory back on September 15th. Utah had to come from behind to beat BYU last weekend and overall it’s averaging 30.8 PPG and allowing 19.2. Washington averages 28 PPG and it allows only 16.5. Veteran QB Jake Browning plays in his final PAC 12 game of his career and I believe his veteran experience in this situation can not be overlooked. The Utes are without RB Zack Moss and QB Tyler Huntley as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU victories, while Washington is still 5-2 ATS in its last seen as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Utah enters off a 101-91 road win over Brooklyn on Wednesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Charlotte took down Atlanta 108-94 at home on Wednesday. These teams split a pair of games last year. The Jazz average 105.3 PPG and they allow 108.1. Big man Rudy Gobert averages 15.3 points, 12.5 boards and 1.95 blocks per game.) The Hornets are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re allowing 110. Kemba Walker leads the way with 27.4 pints and 6.3 assists per game.

The pick: It’s interesting to note though that Utah is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. the Southeast Division, while Charlotte is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. With Donovan Mitchell back in the line-up, the Jazz are an entirely different team. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The 4-1 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are 4-1 after beating St. Edwards 73-60 on Sunday. Shannon Bogues had 16 points. The Dons are 6-0 and off to their best star ever. Most recently San Francisco beat Dartmouth 84-65 on Saturday. Franke Ferrari had 19 points, four boards and seven assists.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but SFA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while San Francisco is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Pacers come in off back-to-back road wins and they’ll be playing without Victor Oladipo, their main offensive weapon. The Lakers have lost two straight after a five-game win skein, including a humbling defeat in Denver last time out. I think the Pacers go through the motions today and I believe “The King” will lay the hammer down from start to finish in this favorable matchup. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference home games on the heels of a two games or more SU/ATS losing streak. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams are 5-1. Alabama enters off a 78-72 home win over Murray State, while UCF comes in off a 66-63 home win over Northern Kentucky. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tide after the Knights recorded the 65-62 road win last year. The Tide average 77 PPG and they allow 70.3. The Knights average 75.3 PPG and they allow 62.3.

The pick: Alabama comes from the tougher conference and it’s loaded with talent. I’m expecting a battle between these two titans. Take it for what you will as well, but Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a raod dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while UCF is still 14-15 ATS in its last 29 after allowing 60 points or less. Grab the points.

 10* play

The set-up: These two teams are both undefeated, but I think the Cavs unrelenting defensive attack will once again win the day on Wednesday night. Virginia most recently dominated Wisconsin 53-46 to win the Battle For Atlantis, holding the Badgers to just 2 of 11 from range and 43.8 percent from the floor overall. The Virginia defense is ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing 49.3 PPG. Maryland has been the beneficiary of a weak schedule to this point, with five of its first six games at home. The Terps do come in off an impressive 104-67 destruction of Marshall, but note that this is a spot in which Maryland has struggled in nightly. 

The pick: As take it for what you will, but the Terps are already a poor 2-4 ATS in their last six non-conference games and just 1-4 ATS at home overall, while the Cavs are 4-2 ATS in non-conference contests and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 on the road. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Lakers are a team led by the best basketball talent on Earth, but which is still trying to find its identity on most nights. That’s understandable, as chemistry takes time to develop. Regardless, LA will be out to atone for a 108-104 home loss to Orlando on Sunday. The Nuggets on the other hand return home off a successful road trip and a 105-98 win at OKC on Saturday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” LA averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 points and it allows 103.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LA is already 4-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while Denver is just 4-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and a poor 7-13 ATS in its last 20 after three or more SU wins. Grab the points, expect a “nail biter!” 

The set-up: VT hasn’t started a season 6-0 for the last six years, but it can accomplish that feat tonight in its first true road game of the campaign. VT enters off a dominating 75-37 rout of St. Francis of Pennsylvania on Saturday and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Four players have at least nine three-balls so far this year for the Hokies ash they’re shooting a solid 41.4 percent from range overall. VT is only 5-7 all time in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, but it’s won its last two. PSU comes in off a crushing 59-56 upset loss to Bradley in the title game of the Cancun Classic and I think its ripe for the picking here. Overall the Nittany Lions shot just 4 of 27 from range in the setback. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 0.5 and 6.5 points range, while VT is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the short points.

The set-up: After an 0-3 start, Houston comes out of its bye week having won six straight. I think the time off will ultimately throw a “monkey wrench” into the chemistry and I look for the hungry Titans to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Houston holds a two game lead over both Tennessee and Indianapolis, so this is a crucial game for the visitors. Tennessee destroyed the Patriots, but it couldn’t keep that momentum going in a 28-10 loss to the Colts last weekend. But with their season essentially on the line, I think the Titans bounce back this week.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams with winning records, while Houston is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive victories. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Houston will be eager to return to form here after a 117-108 road loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Washington on the other hand looks poised for a letdown in my opinion after a 124-114 win over New Orleans on Saturday. But the Rockets have in fact lost two in a row on the road. Overall the Rockets are averaging 106.9 PPG and they’re allowing 107.9. The Wizards are averaging 112.2 PPG and allowing 117.2.  

The pick: Previous to their upset win over the Hornets, the struggling Wizards had lost three straight. Note that they’re just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU victory. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Beavers are rolling. They return from a successful showing in the Virgin Islands State side with a 4-1 record. LBSU on the other hand has done poorly to this point with a 1-3 record. The Beavers feature plenty of talent and veteran experience, led by Tres Tinkle, who had a double-double in all four games in the Virgin Islands tournament. Most recently he had 32 points in the win over Penn. The 49ers lost 87-72 to Utah Valley most recently, with Deishuan Booker a lone bright spot with 17.8 points. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning percentages under .400. I don’t see Oregon State looking past this opportunity. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams played yesterday. The Cavs enter off a confidence building 121-112 win over Philadelphia, while Houston lost 116-111 in Detroit. This the end of a tough Eastern swing for Houston and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well. Houston is only averaging 106.6 PPG, while the defense is allowing 105.7. The Cavs are averaging 103.4 PPG and they’re allowing 111.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back after winning the first by seven or more points. No outright, but expect a competitive battle. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Princeton has plenty of new faces from last year’s team, but I still think it’ll have more than enough to take care of Monmouth. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by Las Vegas. 

The pick: The “edges” for this play though come in the numbers, as note that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of three points or less and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Monmouth is a poor 7-12 ATS in its last 19 non-conference contests and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Texas needs a win here to punch its ticket to the Big 12 Championship game and whether QB Sam Ehlinger plays or not, I think the Longhorns find a way to get the job done here. Texas is averaging 32.4 PPG and it’s allowing 25.9. The Jayhawks are averaging 24.5 PPG and allowing 30.5. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road conference games a favorite in the -14 to -17 points range, while Kansas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points.

The set-up: Ole Miss still needs one more win to become eligible. Clearly this game means “more” to the Rebels than to the 7-4 Bulldogs. Mississippi State looks primed for a letdown though after winning three of four, including a satisfying beatdown of Arkansas most recently. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Grizzlies are 11-5 and the Spurs are 8-8. The Spurs enter motivated after a loss to the Pelicans, while the Grizz look poised for a letdown after four straight victories. San Antonio has now lost five in a row on the road, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for SA to get back on track in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Grizzlies are still a horrible 10-27 ATS in their last 37 following a divisional contest and just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 after three or more consecutive victories, while San Antonio is already 4-1 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. Look for the Spurs to bound back and for the Grizzlies to finally have a letdown in this difficult arena. Lay the points.

The set-up: WMU lost starting QB Jon Wassink three games ago and the Broncos have lost three straight. Both teams are already bowl eligible. NIU had won six straight before a tough 13-7 home loss to Miami Ohio last weekend. The Huskies were already eligible and they ran into a buzz saw in the Redhawks, who still need one more win to qualify, but who were fighting for their lives in that one and on a win streak of their own. The Huskies are averaging only 19.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 20.3. The Broncos are averaging 33.6 PPG and they’re allowing 34.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while NIU is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly not out of the question. Minnesota most recently won 24-9 at home over Detroit two weeks ago and I think it has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. Chicago looks primed for a letdown here as well after its 34-22 win over Detroit last weekend. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 22.7. The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re allowing 19.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Chicago is just 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six coming off a win in which it held its opponent under ten points and following its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The 11-8 Winnipeg Blue Bombers get ready to take on the 13-5 Calgary Stampeders in the CFL West Final and in my opinion, home field can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor/advantage for the Stamps. Winnipeg has won six of seven and QB Chris Streveler has a 29/18 TD/INT. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has 5,124 yards and a 35/14 TD/INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Calgary is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. Lay the points, play on the Stamps.

10* play

The set-up: The Broncos come in out of their bye hungry as they’ve lost two straight. The Chargers though could be a bit complacent here after their big win over the Raiders last week. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more SU/ATS losses, while LA is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 at home and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think LA has a letdown here after last weeks win, while Denver comes in focused after its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Arizona State has a chance to represent the South division of the Pac 12 with a win today, but Oregon will be doing everything in its power to prevent that. ASU will be going bowling for a second straight season though win or lose. QB Manny Wilkins has 2,449 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s. The Sun Devils defense took a hit this week with LB Merlin Roberson suspended after last week’s game against UCLA for a dirty hit. The Ducks are 6-4, but a couple more victories will elevate their bowl berth. QB Justin Herbert is the difference maker for me in this particular matchup though. Herbert has 2,621 passing yards and 25 TD’s thus far. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I’m clearly not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect the visiting side to keep this one more competitive than what this line would suggest. Mississippi State went blow for blow with Alabama last Saturday but fell 24-0. The Bulldogs looked “ok” defensively, but overall it was a humbling loss. Arkansas nearly upset LSU last Saturday, as QB Ty Storey went for 200 yards and two TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 off a loss against a conference rival, while Mississippi State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: SMU in first place in the West Division of the American with a 4-2 overall record, while Memphis just 3-3. When these teams played last year, it was the Tigers that destroyed the Mustangs 66-45 at home. Memphis has struggled against teams like Missouri and UCF, but it enters off back to back blowout wins (47-21 over Tulsa and 59-41 over East Carolina.) So far the Tigers are averaging 531.9 YPG. SMU has won two straight as well, but like its counterpart today, defense has been the issue all year. SMU’ QB Ben Hicks has a sharp 16/4 TD:INT, but I still think the Mustangs will struggle keeping pace with the now surging Tigers.

The pick: I think Memphis lays the hammer down here despite reaching the six win plateau last weekend. SMU needs one more victory, but it’ll have to wait one more weekend to try and get it. Lay the points.

The set-up: FAU comes in off an upset 35-14 victory over WKU, while North Texas suffered an upset loss in a 34-31 setback to Old Dominion. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after FAU posted the 69-31 home win over UNT last year. Despite last weeks win though, the Owls are still averaging only 31.1 PPG, while allowing 31.3. And despite last week’s loss, the Mean Green are still averaging 37.2 PPG and allowing 20.3. 

The pick: Note that UNT is 4-1 at home this year and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: WKU enters off an 86-71 home win over UT Martin, while Valparaiso comes in off a 121-65 victory over Concordia Illinois. This is part of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Crusaders averaged 70.4 points and allowed 68.2 last year. Ryan Fazekas leads the nightly charge and he had 18 points in Val’s most recent victory. Last year WKU averaged 70.5 PPG and it allowed 72. Taveion Hollingsworth was a standout in the latest win with 22 points.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Valparaiso is 5-2 ATS in its last even neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU win of more than 20 points. Grab the points.

The set-up: Buffalo is 9-1 and it’s won five straight. The Bulls have never opened a season 9-1 before and if they win today, they’ll clinch the division. However, I think the hungry Bobcats will battle hard and find a way to defend home turf. Previous to last week’s tough 30-28 loss to Miami Ohio, Ohio has been on fire. The Bobcats ran into an equally as hungry side in the Redhawks and they just didn’t have enough on the road. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion though.

The pick: Note that Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. Home field is the difference. Play on Ohio.

10* play

The set-up: WMU is already bowl eligible, but since losing QB Jon Wassink to injury, the Broncos have struggled on both sides of the ball. It appears the team has packed it in with just a few games remaining. The Cardinals will need to run the board to become eligible and while that’s likely not going to happen with an injury to their starting QB as well, the home side certainly won’t going down without a fight tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is already 2-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

The set-up: Clearly the Lakers are the better team, but they have a tough game in Sacramento on Saturday night and I think its the opportunity that the desperate Hawks will need to at least keep this one competitive. The Hawks are just 3-9 overall and 1-5 on the road, but with upcoming games at Golden State, Denver and Indiana on the horizon, tonight’s contest against a tired Lakers team clearly takes on added importance.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams are 1-0, but I think that USC presents match-up issues for Vanderbilt. It did last year when the Trojans prevailed 93-89 in OT last November. The Commodores play this difficult non-conference contest, but then they return home for a series of “cream puffs.” In my opinion, this sets up as a letdown spot for Vandy.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 90 or more points in its previous outing. Play on USC.

 10* play

The set-up: Eagles are winning and the Cowboys are losing. Dak Prescott and Dallas won’t go down without a fight here though. The Eagles have won three straight, while the Cowboys have dropped tow in a row. In last week’s 28-14 loss to Tennessee, newly acquired WR Amari Cooper had 58 yards and a TD. He’ll bring some depth to the passing game, which will in turn help out Ezekiel Elliot and the ground game. QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and two TD passes in last week’s loss. The Eagles come in “rusty” here out of their bye in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: BC Lions’ QB Travis Lulay is completing just over 60 percent of his passes for 2,494 yards, 13 TD’s and 11 INT’s. The BC ground game averages 94 YPG. Defensively the Lions allow 26.3 PPG and 361.3 YPG. While BC enters the playoffs having split its last six games, the Ti-Cats enter having lost three straight. Note that Hamilton has lost three of its last four at home. QB Jeremiah Masoli has been a bright spot with a 28/18 TD:INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Hamilton is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home, while BC is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this series. The Ti-Cats are currently being outscored by 7.7 points average during their three-game skid and everything points to another letdown here as well. Grab the points.

The set-up: Oregon State enters off a 38-21 loss at home to USC, while Stanford comes in desperate, having lost two straight and four of five, most recently a tight 27-23 setback at Washington last weekend. Oregon State is averaging 417.1 YPG on offense, but it’s very weak defensively, allowing 262.3 YPG through the air and 274.8 YPG on the ground. Stanford is allowing 266.3 YPG through the air and it’s averaging 26.1 PPG overall. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cardinal are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after two or more consecutive SU/ATS setbacks. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Has there been any bigger surprise than the Vancouver Canucks this season? No team has done more with less. Buffalo enters off a 6-5 OT win over the Habs, but with a game against Tampa Bay on Monday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this afternoon. The Canucks are off an 8-5 win at Boston and are 5-2 on the overall. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring six goals or more in an OT victory in its previous outing. Lay the price for the 1.5 goals “puck line.” 10*

10* MSU

The set-up: Ohio State comes in off a tough 36-31 home win over Nebraska and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well in this difficult road venue. Michigan State enters off a 24-3 win over Maryland. This is a big time revenge game as well for the Spartans, as Ohio State has taken two straight in the series, including a 48-3 victory last November. Ohio State is averaging 42.2 PPG and it’s allowing 23.8, while MSU is averaging 23.4 PPG, while allowing just 19. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ohio State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two games or more unbeaten streak and in which it’s a road fav in the -3 to -10 points range, while MSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing three points or less in its previous contest. This one has the all the makings of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Grab the points.

The set-up: Will struggling Louisville win this one outright? Of course not. I’m not suggesting that whatsoever. The Cardinals are coming off a humbling loss to the Clemson Tigers, but they’ll be eager to atone for that blunder for head coach Bobby Petrino. Clearly Syracuse is the better team, but in my opinion this sets up as a “letdown” spot in some small way after big wins over Wake Forest, NC State and UNC.

The play: Take it for what you will as well, but Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road. Look for Louisville to open up the playbook and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Bonus: The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: The Temple Owls were 17-16 last year, but they’re expected to take a step forward this season and they got things started off on the “right foot” with a 75-67 home win over La Salle. Detroit was 8-24 last year and it enters off a listless 89-76 loss to WMU in its opener. Things aren’t going to get any easier on the Mercy tonight, as the Owls love to get out and push the pace. The Titans lost three of their four top scorers from last year and I have a hard time seeing this year’s unit keeping pace with Temple. 

The pick; The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. Look for Temple’s Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr. to dominate and lay the points with confidence.

The set-up: LA enters off a satisfying 120-109 home win over the wolves on Monday and I think it’ll now predictably stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers continue to roll at home most recently getting the better of the Bucks 118-103 on Tuesday. The Clippers are averaging 116.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.8. Portland is averaging 117.3 PPG an fit’s allowing only 107.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points and expect a rout!

The set-up: Both teams come in rolling. Carolina enters off three straight wins, most recently a 42-28 victory over Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh has won four straight, most recently a 23-16 win over Baltimore. These teams are very similar, with dynamic and capable QB’s who each have plenty of weapons to utilize. But Newton has struggled against the elite defenses throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here at Heinz Field.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well the Panthers are a terrible 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Pittsburgh is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Wake Forest comes in off a loss to Syracuse and it lost its starting QB for the season in the process. Can anyone say letdown spot?! After back-to-back defeats, NC State finally bounced back with a destruction of FSU at home in its latest action, becoming bowl eligible in the process. Wake forest is averaging 32.2 PPG, but with QB Sam Hartman went down with injury mid-way though and because of that, I’m expecting the Demon Deacons to struggle to keep up with the Wolfpack. NC State is giving up just 25.5 PPG, while averaging 32.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 in this series, while Wake is now just 1-5 ATS in its last six conference contests. Wake has struggled against superior competition this year and nothing is going to change here. Lay the points. 

The set-up: Siena enters hungry after falling 77-67 to Providence in its Opener on Tuesday. The Saints would lose the rebound battle by a 31-23 margin. Evan Fisher was a bright spot in the setback with 11 points, six boards and three assists. Siena has a new coach and new faces, but its loaded with talent none-the-less.

The Colonials enter 0-1 as well, but I think they come in dwelling on what could have been after falling 77-74 in OT to the Stony Brook Seawolves on Tuesday. George Washington lost the rebound battle as well 17-12, while also committing 17 turnovers. Arnalda Toro had 13 points and 11 boards. 

The pick: It’s a rebuilding year for each team, but note that the Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. George Washington is still reeling from the opening night loss and while I won’t call for the outright, I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Grab the points.

The set-up: It’s the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats and I think the SEC school will find a way to get the job done here. The Blue Devils were 29-8 in ACC play last year, while the Wildcats finished 26-11 in SEC action. Last year Duke averaged 84.4 PPG and it allowed 69.6. Kentucky averaged 76.8 PPG and it allowed 70.2. 

The picks: Duke may have the “flashier/bigger” names on its roster, but John Calipari’s team is loaded with talent as well and I don’t think they’re getting nearly enough respect here. Duke’s young recruits get their first real test here and I think they came up just short. Play on Kentucky.

The set-up: I think Aaron Rodgers and the stumbling Green Bay Packers can keep this one respectable on Sunday night. Green Bay came up just short in a massive upset in LA last weekend and with their backs against the wall, I think the Packers bring that same intensity here on Sunday night. The Pats have won three straight and are off a short week after hammering the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night. 

The teams: Packers’ QB Aaron Jones had 86 yards and a TD last week. Rodgers was his usual dominant self and the defense was decent considering the opponent, posting five sacks and eight QB hits. 

New England wasn’t challenged last week. It didn’t need starting RB Sony Michale last weekend, but I think his absence this Sunday will be more significant against this desperate visiting side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just already just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in playing well, but I think the extra week off to rest and prepare for this one will be the difference for Philip Rives and the visiting Chargers.

The teams: LA comes in on top form having won four straight, most recently a 20-19 win over the Titans in London. Rivers has 2,009 passing yards and an elite 17/3 TD:INT

Seattle has won four of five after an 0-2 start. But after sweeping a two game road trip, including a 28-14 victory in Detroit last Sunday, I think the Hawks suffer a predictable letdown here on the return to friendly soil. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three following its bye, while Seattle is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins. Play on LA.

The set-up: Washington comes in dog tired here after three straight victories, while the Falcons return to action fresh off their bye week and two straight victories. I expect the visitors to sneak away with an outright victory today. 

The teams: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the hurting Falcons. Atlanta still has plenty of injury issues to deal with, but Matt Ryan and his WR core remains in tact and I think the unit will be a difference maker this afternoon. 

The Redskins comes in off a 20-13 win over the lowly Giants, with aging RB Adrian Peterson going for a season-high 149 yards. Suffice it to say, I don’t think AP is going to match that pace again in back-to-back weeks. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but ATL is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival. I like a rested Ryan to pull off the upset Sunday afternoon.

The set-up: Detroit enters off a 28-14 home loss to Seattle, while Minnesota comes in off a 30-20 home loss to the Saints. 

The teams: The Lions last road game ended in a 32-21 Week 6 victory in Miami. While it struggled against the Seahawks last week, I think Detroit will have its opportunities today against Vikes’ defense which has been exposed. Overall the Lions are averaging 24.4 points and allowing 26.6. 

Minnesota is averaging 24.6 PPG and allowing 24.4. Kirk Cousins remains a bright spot on the team with a 16/4 TD/INT, but the once vaunted league leading defense is now firmly planted in the middle of the pack.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes are just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Detroit has played well on the road this year, averaging 27.7 PPG away from friendly confines. Grab the points.

The set-up: Pittsburgh lost 26-14 in this matchup at home earlier in the year and I think it’ll have its hands full in this hostile environment Sunday as well. The Steelers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s all hands on deck this week for Baltimore after losing three of its last four, including a 36-21 setback at Carolina last weekend. 

The teams: The Steelers are averaging 418.1 YPG on offense, while allowing 359.7 YPG. Note there’s a major concern about QB Ben Roethlisberger who fractured his index finger on his left hand. 

Baltimore is only allowing 293.8 YPG. The offense is averaging 379.3 YPG. Last week the defense struggled against Cam Newton, but the unit catches a break this week facing the lumbering (and now injured) Roethlisberger. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more SU losses. I’m banking on the more desperate team getting the job done today. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Irish look to remain undefeated after knocking off Navy last weekend. Northwestern has already knocked off two ranked foes this year, but I think the Wildcats will come up short here against Notre Dames complete team.

The teams: Notre Dame posted 584 total yards of offense against a hungry Navy team last weekend. A perfect season is in the Irish’s grasp, but they’ll have to stay focused now and take it one game at a time. 

Northwestern managed three fumble recoveries against Wisconsin, but RB Isaiah Brewer was one of the lone bright spots on offense with 117 yards and a TD. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five following a victory, while the Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a win by 20 points or more. Notre Dame is on a mission and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas this weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: Missouri comes in off a 15-14 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, while Florida enters off a 36-17 beatdown loss at the hands of Georgia. If recent history is any precedence, then Missouri has to be liking its chances today as in last year’s matchup it won 45-16.

The teams: Missouri is averaging 35.5 PPG and it’s allowing 28.9. QB Drew Lock has 2,144 passing yards with 16 TD’s and six INT’s. 

Florida is averaging 32.2 PPG and it’s allowing 19. QB Feleipe Franks has 16 TD’s and six INT’s so far this season. Last weekend the Gators came back down to earth, turning the ball over three times, while not forcing one themselves.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games in which it was held to points or less in its previous game and lost, while Florida is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 17 points or less in a loss in its previous outing. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments!

The set-up: Detroit comes in off a disheartening 120-119 road loss in Brooklyn, while Philadelphia posted a 122-113 home victory over LA in its most recent action. Note that this is a big time revenge game for Philly after it fell 133-132 in OT in Detroit earlier in the year. 

The teams: This is the finale of a three game trip for the Pistons. Overall Detroit has already lost two of three on the road. The Pistons are averaging 109.9 PPG and allowing 110.5. 

Philadelphia is averaging 113.8 PPG and allowing 113.4. Joel Embiid had 41 points with 16 boards in the win over the Clippers. Note that the 76ers are now 5-0 on their home floor this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Philadelphia is 63-44 ATS the last two season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The 76ers’ revenge the earlier loss and continue their home dominance with another convincing victory.

The set-up: The Wolves come in off an epic 128-125 win over the Jazz, a game in which Derrick Rose scored 50 points. Can anyone say letdown spot? Rose isn’t going to score 50 again for the rest of his career and I think the Warriors will look to take advantage of this tired visiting side. The Warriors are firing on all cylinders right now as well, as guard Stephen Curry is averaging a career-high 33 points, 5.9 assists and 5.0 boards per game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Minnesota is just 8-20 in its last 28 on the road and interestingly only 3-7 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: WKU has just one win on the year (against lowly Ball State) and it comes in having lost four in a row. MTSU will look to take advantage and to build off back-to-back wins over ODU and Charlotte.

The teams: WKU is averaging only 19.8 PPPG and it’s allowing 30. The Hilltoppers are now essentially eliminated from bowl contention and with that fact weighing heavily on the team collectively, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here.

MTSU QB Brent Stockstill will look to build off another efficient game, last week going for 280 yards with two TD’s and one INT. RB Terell West exploded for 120 yards and a major score as well. 

The pick: Note as well that the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records (the home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series), while WKU is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points.

The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Sacramento has exceeded expectations to this point, sitting at 5-3 overall and 3-2 on the road. But after four straight wins and back-to-back on the road and with two whole nights off before a game at East leading Milwaukee, there’s no question in my mind that this finally sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Clearly the Hawks don’t have the same luxury, as they’re 2-5 and they’ve lost three in a row. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a three games or more unbeaten streak. Play on the Hawks.

The set-up: UCF puts the nation’s longest winning streak on the line tonight and while I’m not calling for the straight up outright loss, but I think the home side will have its hands full with the division co-leader tonight, who clearly won’t be going down without a fight. 

The teams: Temple is 5-3 overall, but 4-0 in league play. Last time out it knocked off previously unbeaten Cincinnati 24-17. QB Anthony Russo finished three INT’s, but he also had three TD’s. During the Owls three game win streak he’s thrown eight of nine TD passes while posting 791 yards through the air. 

UCF is averaging 44.4 PPG. QB McKenzie Milton was held out of last week’s win over the Pirates, ending a string of 27 consecutive starts. Note that his status for this game is uncertain as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF has struggled mightily in the month of November, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six during that period, while Temple is 41-18 ATS in its last 59 on the road. I think the Owls have a legitimate shot at winning outright, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as may points as you can. Play on Temple.

The set-up: Ohio is 3-1 in conference play, while WMU is 4-1. The MAC West division race is wide open and I smell a small upset in the air on Thursday night.

The teams: WMU lost 51-24 to Toledo last time out, breaking a six-game slide. In that contest star QB Jon Wassink left early in the first quarter with injury. Wassink missed the final four games of 2017 as well and the Broncos would finish 1-3. Overall WMU is averaging 35 PPG and allowing 30.9. 

Ohio though comes in surging, it won its second straight conference game in a 52-14 blowout victory over Ball State. AJ Ouellette had 135 yards and two scores. QB Nathan Rourke had 127 yards passing and a TD as well. Overall the Bobcats are averaging 38.3 PPG while allowing 28.9.

The pick: Ohio though has held its last four opponents to under 27 points. Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while WMU is only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 at home, including only 1-3 ATS this season. 

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After two straight losses, including a setback to the Blazers on Monday night, I think the Pacers come in focused on the task at hand here. New York on the other hand comes in content off a 115-96 victory over the Nets to move to 2-5. With three nights off before a two-game road trip, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a loss in which it scored 95 points or less. Play on the Pacers.

The set-up: Toledo broke a two-game slide with a big win over WMU last Thursday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Ball State comes in on the other end of the spectrum, off back-to-back losses to EMU and Ohio. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Ball State rushed for just 80 yards and threw for only 162 in last week’s crushing 52-14 loss to Ohio. QB Riley Neal left in the second quarter with injury and he’s out for this one as well.

Toldeo’ QB Mitch Guadagni also suffered an injury in last week’s 51-24 blowout win over WMU last week, meaning Eli Peters is the “main man.” Last week he was 8 of 14 for 107 yards and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toledo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 against teams with losing records, while Ball State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: Buffalo has a perfect conference record, but Miami Ohio won’t be going down without a fight tonight. The Redhawks enter off a tough 31-30 double-OT road loss to Army, while Buffalo gutted out a 31-17 road victory over Toledo. Note that when these teams met last year it was Miami Ohio which posted the 24-14 home victory.

The teams: Miami Ohio’ QB Gus Ragland has 1,769 passing yards and a 14/3 TD:INT. The Redhawks offense revolves around their strong run game though, led by Alonzo Smith, who has 342 rushing yards. Overall the Redhawks are averaging 26.2 PPG and allowing 24.9.

Buffalo is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 21.1. QB Tyree Jackson was 1,869 passing yards with a 20/8 TD:INT, but note that he’s thrown five INT’s over his last three games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 following its bye week, while Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. The Redhawks’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now and I think the unit keeps the visitors competitive late. Grab the points.

The set-up: If recent history is any precedence, then the Falcons have to be liking their chances tonight, as they took this game on the road last year by a score of 44-16. Kent enters off a 24-23 OT loss to Akron at home, while Bowling Green lost 49-14 at Ohio. Both teams are 0-4 in league play.

The teams: KSU averages 23 PPG, while allowing 35. Last week the Golden Flashes allowed the Zips to convert 10 of 19 third down chances.

Bowling Green is averaging 25.6 PPG, while allowing 47.8. The Falcons have been worse on the defensive side of the ball than their counterpart this year, but better on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege is the difference maker for me today though, he so far has 2,078 yards passing with a decent 19/8 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a three games or more unbeaten streak in conference action and as an underdog in the +1 to +3.5 points range. Play on the Falcons.

The set-up: Here’s a fantastic “situational” play. The Hawks are in action on Monday night against the 76ers. Cleveland will look to take advantage and get off the schneid as it enters 0-6 overall, including 0-3 at home. One of those losses includes a 133-111 setback to these very Hawks just last week.

The pick: The King isn’t around anymore, but I still think it’s worth noting that the Cavs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a three games or more SU losing streak. The situation and the numbers favor the home side. Lay the points.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Miami has been solid in the early going, but with a game at home against the Kings on Monday, look for the visitors to rest some of their starters in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte already beat the Heat 113-112 early in the year, but after losing three of its last four, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back when playing that second contest on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, lay the points.

The set-up: Tom Brady is 28-3 all time against Buffalo and while he won’t have offensive star TE Rob Gronkowski in the line-up, I still believe the all star will have more than enough to take care of the lowly (and injured) Bills.

The teams: After a 1-2 start the Pats come in having won four straight. Last week Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s in the victory over the Bears. WR Josh Gordon had four catches for 100 yards. Sony Michel is also expected to sit this one out, so expect to see a heavy dose of James White.

The Bills are dealing with several injuries, including at QB. Buffalo is already planning ahead to next year and I believe it’ll simply go through the motions tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Pats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 after two or more consecutive victories, while Buffalo is just 10-13 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I expect the Kings to have a predictable letdown here after back-to-back home victories. After beating Washington 116-112 they Kings have had two nights off and with a game tomorrow night in Orlando, this contest also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the visitors. The Heat look to take advantage, they’ve won two in a row and with a tough road trip starting tomorrow night in Charlotte, I’m expecting the home side to leave everything it has on the floor tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after two or more SU/ATS victories. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: I think the Wizards will find a way to get the job done here. Washington is 1-4 SU/ATS and desperate for a victory after back-to-back road losses to the Warriors and Kings. LA on the other hand looks poised for a classic letdown here though in my opinion after its big 133-113 road win at Houston. And with a three-game road trip starting in OKC on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back road SU losses. Play on the Wizards.

The set-up: I believe the overall situation favors the Knights so much in this one, that I do indeed have no issues at all in laying this larger price. After three straight wins the Senators have now lost two straight. But with much more “winnable” games upcoming at Arizona and then a home and home set with Buffalo, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead.” Vegas has struggled as well this season after its Cinderella run last year, but after back-to-back losses to Vancouver and TB and with a tough road game starting in Nashville on Tuesday, I expect the home side to leave everything it has on the ice this evening.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Knights are 7-2 in their last nine home games following a two games or more losing streak. Lay the -1.5.

The set-up: Oakland only has one victory on the season and I think it’ll struggle containing Andrew Luck, who continues to gain confidence each week, despite being undermanned on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Luck had 156 yards and four TD’s in last week’s blowout win at home over the hapless Bills. Marlon Mack ran for 126 yards and a TD. Luck is getting improved play from his offensive line and I think that progression continues this week in what sets up as another favorable matchup.

Oakland coach Jon Gruden was signed to a ten year contract, so he’s gutting the team and rebuilding it the way he sees fit. Gruden’s indecision across the board has hurt the team in the short-term and probably in the long-term as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing home record. I like Luck to lay the hammer down and further expose Gruden’s complete ineptitude. Lay the points.