The set-up: Dallas smashed New York 35-17 in Week 1 when Eli Manning was under center. The Cowboys have been hit or miss this year, but they're coming off an impressive 37-10 win over Philadelphia in Week 7, a team which was just as hungry as desperate as they were. Dallas is coming off a Week 8 bye as well, so it's been planning and preparing for this crucial contest for a while now. New York though isn't sure what's going on, most recently losing 31-26 on the road to the Lions. At 2-6, the Giants' season is already over and they can now start preparing and planning for next year. 

The pick: New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home, while Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Breaking down individual player matchups or what each team's defensive and offensive numbers are is not important tonight. The situational factors combined with these strong trends make Dallas the savvy call in my professional opinion. Lay the points.

10* BLOOD BATH on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: What do you base your picks on? For me, I like to remain flexible and don't follow any one single methodology. The Raiders have been arguably the biggest "surprise" team in the NFL this year, a lot more competititve than what most thought. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a "trap/letdown" for the home side. And that's because the Raiders haven't actually played a "home" game in the last five weeks (the only time in the last five weeks that Oakland was the "home" side was its game in London three weeks ago.) Now the players return home to their own beds and their families finally and I think that it's going to have a detrimental effect to their play on the field today.

The pick: Oakland has lost two straight as well. The Lions though come off a crucial 31-26 win over the Giants last weekend and they'll be laying everything on the line here as they try to keep pace with the Packers. Note as well that Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. clubs with losing records, while Oakland is a terrible 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. A great situational play on the Lions this weekend.

10* GAME OF MONTH on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: Portland returns home after a successful 3-1 season opening road trip. The Blazers only loss came to the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back situation. The Blazers are getting dominant play from Damian Lillard, who is averaging 29.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum is averaging 21. Note that the Blazers are 8-1 SU in their last nine at the Moda Center. The 76ers come to town without their top player in Joel Embiid as well, who is serving a suspension due to a fight he was involved in. 

The pick: Josef Nurcic is going to be able to operate vs. Philadelphia in the paint. Philly has plenty of talent and is a deep team as well, but the late West Coast game, combined with the loss of Embiid will prove to be just too much here to overcome in my opinion. Note as well that Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 or more points in its previous outing, while Philly is only 40-45 ATS in its last 85 after scoring 115 points or more. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trailblazers. 

The set-up: Both teams are desperate for a win here. UVA is 5-3 and UNC is 4-4. The Cavs enter off a 28-21 loss to Louisville. Despite the hiccup, UVA still averages 30 PPG, while allowing only 20.8. QB Bryrce Perkins had 233 yards and a TD last week, while RB Wayn Taulapapa had 54 rushing yards and two TD's. 

The pick: UNC lost 43-41 to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and then bounced back with a 20-17 victory over Duke last weekend. UNC posted 432 total yards of offense, including 205 on the ground, led by Javonte Williams with 111 rushing yards. The Tar Heels average 27.5 PPG and they allow 25.8. UVA though is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a road loss, while UNC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. I think the Tar Heels struggle vs. this tough UVA defense. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* play on UVA.

The set-up: Navy just became eligible after its 41-38 win over Tulane last weekend. UConn earned its first victory of the year in last week's 56-35 win over UMass. Malcom Perry and the Midshipmen are back in the bowls this season and after punching that crucial/important win, I believe that Navy does in fact come out a bit flat in this one. The Midshipmen average 37.9 PPG and they allow 19.7. 

The pick: UConn only averages 21.2 PPG, while allowing 37.8, but last week it posted 539 total yards of offense. Additionally note that Navy is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a home dog in the 21 1/2 to 28 points range. I'm banking on a closer than expected battle here, grab the points.

10* TRAIN-WRECK on Connecticut.

The set-up: The desperate Nets are poised to win this game outright in my opinion, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these teams has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. Houston comes in off a one point OT win in the Nation's capital vs. a terrible Wizards tam. Yes Houston has two fantastic players in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but after that they get pretty thin. 

The pick: And in a "situation" like this where they just finished a marathon OT contest and now face a desperate Nets team that will be risking life and limb after starting the season 1-3, there's no question that this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side. Additionally note that Houston is a terrible 5-12 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games, while the Nets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games. This one has upset written all over it.

10* play on the Brooklyn Nets.

The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. This one is primarily based around scheduling. Montreal comes in off a highly satisfying 4-1 victory in Arizona just last night and I think it's going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Las Vegas most recently hammered the Ducks 5-2 and I expect a similar lop-sided blowout here as well. Also note the visitors will turn to back-up goalkeeper Keith Kincaid in this one and he's 0-1-1 with a 4.53 GAA this year. 

The pick: The home side counters with Mark Andre Fleurty, who is 8-3-0 on the year with a 2.36 GAA. Note as well that LV is 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite of -200 or higher, while Montreal is a poor 0-5 in its last five when playing on back-to-back. Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return and expect a decisive home victory.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Las Vegas Golden Knights. 

ts. 

The set-up: What do you base your picks on? I base my selections on many different things. This particular play is based upon the fact the Pelicans are so far winless this year and they're going to be playing their hearts out to get off the schneid. They're still without Zion Williamson and yes admittedly, the Nuggets are a much better and deeper team. But I believe that the visitors come in flat here after their outright 109-106 loss at home to the Mavericks. 

The pick: The Pelicans have faced stiff competition to open the year, but note that they're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Nuggets are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a favorite. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can.

10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line in this one, but regardless, I like San Francisco to come in focussed on the task at hand and to once again run up the score quickly in this one as it then gets ready to play Seattle the following week. Clearly this is a big game for Arizona, as it sits at 3-4 and another loss will essentially take it out of the running for a playoff spot with both Seattle and San Francisco in its division. But San Francisco's depth on the defensive side of the ball and it's strong run game is going to prove to be too much for Cards' rookie QB Kyler Murray today. 

The pick: Arizona enters off a tough road loss to the Saints and I don't think the home side has gotten over that setback. It's interesting to note as well that San Fran is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests, while Arizona is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three following a two game road trip. No upsets this week, lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Francisco 49ers.

The set-up: Georgia Southern won't be going down without a fight vs. No. 20 Appalachian State. The Eagles enter off a 41-7 win over New Mexico State, while the 7-0 Mountaineers defeated South Alabama 30-3 last weekend. Georgia Southern's triple option is going to be something a bit different for App State today though. The Mountaineers average 140 rushing yards per game and the Eagles average 259 rushing yards per game.

The pick: Georiga SOuthern's defense is under-rated as well in my opinion, allowing only 209 passing yards per game, so QB Zac Thomas is going to have his hands full. Note that Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 37 points or more in its last game, while App State is already 0-2 ATS this year after a win by 21 points or more. No outright, but closer than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: The Grizzlies ended a two-game losing streak with a big OT win at home over the Nets and I look for this young visiting side to carry that momentum over here. The Lakers lost to the Clippers on opening night, but they've since won back-to-back games over Utah and Charlotte. With upcoming road games vs. an improved Dallas team up next, followed by San Antonio and Chicago, would anyone fault LA for looking past its lowly opponent today? Memphis' young core of Jae Crowder, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to keep this one competitive once again in my opinion. 

The pick: Yes the Lakers have Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, but they're still without Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Memphis has struggled defensively in the early going, but LA has so far only averaged 105.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Additionally note that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 120 points or more, while LA is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I think LA does indeed get caught looking past the hungry Grizzlies today, so grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: Do or die?! Now or never?! Washington has its back against the wall and I'm not going to give up on it quite yet. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Strasburg has earned a win in four of his last five playoff games, allowing only six runs total in that span.

Verlander has been downright terrible in the postseason, losing three of his last four decisions, most recently getting shelled for four runs off seven hits over six innings vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nats are 6-0 in their last six playoff road games, while the Astros are only 1-4 in their last five interleague home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Verlander's been terrible, while Strasburg has been superb. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: Damian Lillard has scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games for the Blazers. Hassan Whiteside and CJ MCCollum round out a powerful and veteran line-up. Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic have been great for the Mavericks, but I think the lack of depth off the bench will ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavs today. 

The pick: Additionally note that Portland is 24-12 ATS in its last 36 after scoring 120 points or more in its previous outing, while Dallas is a poor 14-16 ATS in its last 30 as a home favorite of six points or less. I like Whiteside to slow down Porzingis tonight and I look for the deeper bench of Portland to do the rest. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up: This is Oakland's fifth straight game on the road, a trip which has included a trip to London. I admit that the Raiders have been better than I thought they'd be this year, but I think they're going to suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this focused home side, which comes in off a 30-23 loss to the Colts. The Raiders got crushed 41-24 at Green Bay last weekend and now they face a similar type offense in DeShaun Watson and the Texans. 

The pick: Oakland allowed five TD's to Aaron Rodgers last weekend and they average 21 PPG, while conceding 27.5. The Texans on the other hand average 26 PPG, while allowing 23. Oakland is also a poor 5-13 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including 1-2 ATS this year), while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. I like Watson to domiante this porous Raiders' secondary. Lay the points.

10* play on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: Phoenix held a lead in Denver for most of the night last night, but it wasn't to be in its eventual 108-107 OT loss. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but let's get real. We're still in the first week of the season and these are professional athletes. I'll argue that playing again so quickly is actually a benefit for the clearly "gelling" Suns, who blew out the Kings in their opener. The Clippers are off to a 2-0 start and they definitely appear to be the team to beat in the NBA this season. 

The pick: The Clippers took out the Lakers and then the Warriors in Golden State, but with games against the Suns tonight and then the Hornets at home on Monday, would anyone fault LA for taking the foot off the gas here tonight? I like the home side to shake off last night's loss and to defend its own floor. That said, grab the generous points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: Cal is 4-3 and desperate for a couple more victories. Utah is 6-1 and already bowl eligible. Utah though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after getting its sixth win of the year in a 21-3 win over Arizona State. 

The pick: Cal has lost three in a row, but it's looked better of late. The Bears only concede 18 PPG, so they have the defense to hang with the home side today. Additionally note that Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last four and 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games, while the Utes are 0-2 ATS in their last two after allowing six points or less in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* play on California 

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. USC is just 4-3 and still in search of eligibility. Time is running out for 3-4 Colorado as well though. The Buffs enter off a 41-10 loss to Washington State, their third straight conference set back. USC is off a 41-14 victory over Arizona at home. USC is in a tie now with Utah for the lead, but last week's victory came at a cost, as the Trojans come to Colorado suffering a number of injuries to key players: they lost starting RB Vavae Malepeai for the season. Junior RB Stephen Carr also hurt his hamstring against the Wildcats and isn't expected to play. Backup RB Markese Stepp is also out with an ankle injury. Defensive linemen Christian Rector and Drake Jackson are also slated as questionable, as are CB's  Olijah Griffin and Greg Johnson.

The pick: Colorado needs QB Steven Montez to show and produce tonight vs. this wounded Trojans' defense. Montez's ground game though has been decent of late, with Alex Fontenot running for over 70 yards in each of the last four games. I'll point out as well that USC is still only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite, while Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 28 points or more to conference rivals. The situation favors the home side here, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado.

The set-up: The Bulls lost 126-125 in Charoltte on opening night, but I think this fast-paced visiting side will have more than enough in the tank to take out the lowly home side here. Lauri Markkanen was a bright spot in a losing cause for Chicago with 35 points and 17 boards and its defense catches a break here facing Memphis, which fell 120-101 in Miami in its opener. 

The pick: Ja Morant was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year for Memphis and he finished with 14 points and four assists. But the Grizz are still a poor 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion.

10* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: SMU is already bowl eligible at 7-0, but Houston has some work to do at 3-4. An upset win at home over the surging Mustangs would certainly help get the ship directed in the correct direction. SMU comes in off a 45-21 home win over Temple. Shane Buechele has been superb so far for SMU, but I think he's going to have his hands full here vs. this motivated and hungry home side, which enters off a 24-17 win over UConn. Cougars' QB Logan Holgorsen and 123 yards and a TD. SMU allows 251 yards passing per game, so Holgorsen will have his opportunities. 

The pick: Note that SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Houston is is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off a road win against a conference rival. I think the home side fights tooth and nail in this one and keeps it close as the game comes down the stretch. I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 1. With their backs against the wall, I believe that Justin Verlander and the home side come out and deliver an epic response on Game 2. Honestly, it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these staters to win this game, as Stephen Strasburg has been a "rock" for the Nats all season and during the playoffs. This play is based upon the "situation" and some strong ATS trends. The only mission of a visiting team in the start of a playoff series is to earn a "split" over the first two games. Sure Washington would LOVE to win both games, but with that crucial mission indeed accomplished, I think the visitors get caught taking the mental foot off the gas. For Houston though, this is essentially "do or die." 

The pick: Note that Washington is just 3-7 in its last ten road games following a victory by one run or more, while Houston is 7-4 in its last 11 home games after allowing five or more runs in its previous contest. I expect Houston to win, and win big!

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Astros on the RUN-LINE.

The set-up: The Pistons were 41-41 last year and they were the eighth seed in the East, while Indiana was 48-34 and ended up as the fourth seed last year. The Pistons enter the year on full health (other than Griffin) and welcome back all of their core players from last year. Detroit also signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris amonth others. 

The pick: The Pacers are awaiting for their super star Victor Oladipo to return from injury and I think they'll have a hard time adjusting on opening night. Indiana signed Malcom Brogdon to run the point, but I think he'll have his hands full as well tonight with Rose and company. I think Detroit has everything in place to improve this year and even with Oladipo in the line-up, I believe that the Pacers have the potential to take a big step back. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Each of these teams had huge expectations coming in, but each has struggled mightily to open the 2019/20 campaign. The Chargers are off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers, while the Titans fell 16-0 in Denver. While Philip Rivers had 320 yards and two TD's last week for the Bolts, he also had two INT's. And now he faces the leagues second best pass defenses which concedes just 217 passing yards per game. Also note that Rivers has been sacked 12 times already this year. 

The pick: Marcus Mariota is out and Ryan Tannehill is in for the Titans this week. Tannehill makes his first start for his new team and I expect the pivot to make the most of this opportunity. LA though is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a road loss. I think the Titans superior defense is the difference here and I like Tannehill to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tennessee Titans.

The set-up: Did the Red Wings get caught "looking ahead" to this game after their 5-1 loss in Calgary just last night? Probably. But that still doesn't make tonight's task any easier as the now weary Wings head to Edmonton to play the second game of the back to back vs. a red hot Oilers team. The Wings are allowing 3.75 GPG on the road, while only netting an average of 2.75. Wings' netminder Jonathan Bernier has been a bright spot in the early going with a 2-1, 3.33 GAA record, but I think he'll struggle in this difficult venue. 

The pick: The Oilers average the second highest amount of goals this year (4.00) and they concede the 11th lowest (2.71.) Edmonton goalie Mike Smith is 3-1 with a 2.50 GAA thus far. Edmonton is also 4-0 in its last four vs. the Eastern Conference, while Detroit is just 26-38 in non-conference games the last two years. I'm laying the 1.5 goals.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Edmonton Oilers PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: Ohio State is 6-0 and Northwestern is just 1-4. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do feel that the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Ohio State ranks in the top in the country in almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields has 18 passing TD's and eight rushing. But with 6-0 Wisconsin at home next weekend, would anyone fault the visitors in looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? 

The pick: Northwestern enters off three straight tough losses, but it also enters rested out of its bye. The Wildcats lost 31-10 to MSU, 24-15 to Wisconsin and 13-10 to Nebraska. Whether it's Aiden Smith or Hunter Johnson under center, I'm basing today's pick more on the situation than anything else. I will however note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye-week, while OSU is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Northwestern.

The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.) 

The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. 

The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette.

The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. 

The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama.

The set-up: I had the Cards in Game 3. Clearly I'm surprised at the lack of production from St. Louis right now. Washington is on the verge of moving onto the World Series, but I think the feisty visiting side avoids the sweep and notches at least one victory in this series. At the very least, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Daniel Hudson goes for the visitors, while Patrick Corbin goes for the home side. 

The pitchers: Hudson (16-7, 3.55 ERA) looked sharp in his only start in the post-season, holding the Braves to one run over five innings.

Corbin (14-7, 3.25) took back-to-back losses vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS, before having a pair of short no-decisions.

The pick: Now or never. Do or die. Corbin has been volatile and Hudson has been solid. I'm banking on the visitors on keeping this one alive for one more game.

10* U OF U (B OF B) on the Cardinals RUN LINE.

The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. 

The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: The Steelers are 1-4 and the Chargers are 2-3. This is a "must win" game for both teams. But I like Philip Rivers and company on their own soil here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 33-30 in Pittsburgh last season. Both teams enter off losses. Pittsburgh' backup QB Mason Rudolph suffered a concussion last weekend and he's listed as doubtful here. While the Pittsburgh defense picked off Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson three times last week, I don't expect that kind of sloppy play from Rivers at home and after last weekend's poor 20-13 loss at home. 

The pick: The Chargers have actually been quite stingy defensively, allowing only 334.8 total yards of offense per game. Pittsburgh allows 229.8 passing yards per game, but now they'll have to deal with LA RB Melvin Gordon, who has finally returned from his holdout. Too many question marks surrounding Pittsburgh here, while the conditions are unquestionably correct for a big bounce back for LA in my opinion. Lay the points with confidence.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Chargers.

The set-up: I like 4-2 Nebraska to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 5-0 Golden Gophers. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers, who have two by weeks, bookended around two games vs. bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska has plenty of talent in RB Wan'Dale Robinson and QB Adrian Martinez. Note that Martinez leads the team in passing and rushing. 

The pick: Nebraska hammered Minnesota last year and I think the stage is set for an upset here as well. I think the Gophers 5-0 start is due to a weak schedule. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has 13 TD's and three INT's, but both RB Mohamed Ibrahim and Cam Wiley are listed as questionable. Note as well that Minnesota is a poor 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 following an ATS victory, while the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning SU home record. I like Martinez to keep his team in this game. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Nebraska

The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well. 

The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods.

10* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright victory. New York has several injuries and is a big underdog for a reason. The Patriots and Tom Brady continue to roll and come into this one undefeated. New England's defense is dominating as well. I simply feel though that the Pats are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today, leaving the backdoor open just enough to allow the hungry visiting side to sneak in down the stretch. The Giants had their two-game win streak snapped in last week's 28-10 home loss to the Vikes, while the Pats enter off a 33-7 road win over the Skins. 

The pick: Daniel Jones is no Brady, but he's been a lot better than Eli Manning (760 yards, four TD's and three INT's.) Brady had 348 yards, three TD's and an INT last week, but he was also sacked four times. While the Giants offense is banged up, the defense is actually a strenght of the team now (13 sacks and five INT's.) With the Jets up next weekend, I think the Patriots come out and get caught looking ahead to that one as well. As stated off the top, clearly I'm not calling for the outright win, but I do expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-2. Both are 0-1 in ACC action. Both are also coming out of their respective bye weeks. Syracuse is led by QB Tommy DeVito, who has 1,234 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in the last two games.) The Orange defense has been decent, having posted 12 forced turnovers.  

The pick: NC State comes out of its bye week with a new face under center in Bailey Hockman, who is a four star FSU transfer. For his career he's 28 of 50 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. Also note that the Wolf Pack will be without RB Ricky Person, as well as OT Justin Witt. Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while the Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse.

The set-up: This has been an entertaining NLCS. Competitive. I believe that the final contest will also prove to be a war until the end. So in a game which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. 

The pitchers: Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) was 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts on the road this year. Note that he's 3-2 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA in five games in the playoffs in his career, which includes going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two games this season. 

Buehler (14-4, 3.26) was 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at home this season and he's 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career postseason starts. 

The pick: I think Washington has stolen the momentum in this series. The Nats have the more experirenced hurler on the mound to start this one as well. While the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, in the end I'm grabbing the red hot Nationals on the run line.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Nationals run-line.

The set-up: It's do or die for the Twins as they return home down 0-2. Minnesota was great at home this season and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a game which I envistion being decided late or in extra frames, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side counters with Jake Odorizzi.

The pitchers: Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) is 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA on the road this year. Note that he's 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in six postseason starts and he's 0-1 with a 4.57 ERA in two career starts vs. Minnesota.

Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51) is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 starts at home this year. He's 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 18 games vs. the Yanks and this is his first postseason appearance.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a poor 8-10 (-6.3 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Minnesota is 15-6 (+11 units) this season when playing with double revenge with two straight losses vs. an opponent.

10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins on the RUN-LINE.

TThe set-up: The Browns hit the West Coast looking to pull off the slight upset and in my opinion, they definitely have a legitimate shot at doing just that. The 49ers are 3-0, but they've been off since a win over the Steelers in Week 3. Cleveland is 2-2 and it enters off its best performance of the sason, smashing the Ravens 40-25. It took a few games for the Browns' offense to find its footing, but I have no reason not to believe that it can't continue to progress each week. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had 165 yards and three TD's, while QB Baker Mayfield had 342 passing yards and a TD.

The pick: Jimmy Garapollo had 277 yards passing, a TD and an INT in his victory over the lowly Steelers, but note that the Browns concede just 215.2 YPG through the air. Additionally note that San Fran is a terrible 0-6 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road game vs. a team with a winnng home record. Grab the points.

10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns

The set-up: The Cardinals are 0-3 and the Bengals are 0-4. Both teams have an ultra slim shot at even making the playoffs after their respective poor starts, but I still think that a healthy Cardinals team has much more in the tank than their reeling opponent. Arizona has played some incredibly difficult teams to open the year and it’s remained/looked competitive. The Bengals have been a train wreck and Cards’ QB Kyler Murray will finally have time to operate this afternoon. 

The pick: The Bengals lost 27-3 to the Steelers on Monday Night Football, as veteran QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 27 for 171 yards, zero TD’s, one INT and eight sacks. Note that Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Cards a solid 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road contests. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Arizona Cardinals.

The set-up: Washington is 4-1 and Stanford is 2-3. The Huskies only loss cam to Cal in Week 2. Last week the Huskies beat USC, but QB Jacob Eason was only 16 of 26 for 180 yards and no TD’s. Stanford and head coach David Shaw have an uncharacteristically difficult start to the season, but they come in off a solid 31-28 Pac 12 win over Oregon State and I think the home side carries that momentum over here:

“The last three weeks have been tough,” said Shaw recently. “They’ve been really tough. We played against really good teams two of them on the road in very difficult environments.”

The pick: Stanford backup QB David Mills replaced KJ Costello, who has a thumb injury, and he went 18 for 25 for 245 yards and three TD’s last week. Look for this steadily improving Cardinal side to keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest. 

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford.

The set-up: This is a big Mountain West Conference matchup, as both teams come in at 2-2. San Jose State already suffered a conference loss, falling 41-24 to the Air Force Falcons last week, while this will be New Mexico’s conference opener. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Lobos have to be liking their chances at an upset today, as the last time these teams met, New Mexico pulled way for the 48-41 victory. New Mexico comes in hungry as well after last week’s loss to Liberty. San Jose State averages just 25.1 PPG and New Mexico looked a lot better defensively last week, allowing only 17 points in the setback to Liberty. The Lobos have a QB issue, with Tevaka Tuioti and Sheriron Jones splitting time after the starter went down win injury in Week 1. 

The pick: San Jose State somehow managed a win on the road vs. Arkansas and QB Josh Love is a clear strength of the team. The Spartans though are an absolute disaster defensively, as the unit allows the 11th most yards in all of FBS college football at the moment. Note that New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two straight non-conference games, while San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a favorite and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home. Grab the points and expect a battle.

10* ULTIMATE SUPER SHOCKER on New Mexico.

The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the stage is set for a much closer battle than what this spread would suggest. ECU is coming off a 24-21 upset road victory over ODU and I believe the Pirates carry that momentum over here. Temple comes to town off a 24-2 win at home over Georgia Tech. Previous to that though the Owls were upset 38-22 on the road in Buffalo. 

The pick: ECU has won two in a row and three of its last four. The Pirates have been getting strong defensive play as well, allowing only 151.4 YPG, and note that ECU has had to face Navy as well this year. The Owls are a terrible 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while ECU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing a non-conference game. Grab the points and sit back and relax on this one.

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina.

The set-up: I’m expecting a decisive victory for the home side in this “one and done” Wild Card game. Both teams were hot down the stretch, but I think the Nationals’ Max Scherzer is the difference maker here. The Brewers counter with Brandon Woodruff to start.

The pitchers: Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) comes in off two strong outings vs. the Pirates and Padres. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Woodruff at this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) enters off a full weeks rest and he owns a tiny 1.03 WHIP this season. 

The pick: Brewers’ slugger Christian Yelich is obviously not playing because of an earlier injury. Milwaukee center fielder Lorenzo Cain is also listed as day to day, while slugger Ryan Braun is dealing with a leg issue. The Nationals haven’t won a playoff series in 38 years, so clearly they won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note as well that the Nats are 6-0 in their last six vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are only 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Milwaukee comes to town weakened and I believe Washington finally gets the monkey off its back with a resounding victory. Lay the 1.5 runs for the small plus money return.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. 

The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: I think the desperate 1-3 Bruins will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire vs. the 2-1 Wildcats. UCLA managed a one-point victory in last year’s game. Arizona comes in having won straight at home, most recently over the hapless Texas Tech Red Raiders, but note that it’s still lost five of its last eight Pac 12 conference games overall. Arizona’s offense looks decent, but UCLA catches a break here facing suspect Wildcats’ QB Khalil Tate, who’s completed only 63 percent of his passes for six TD’s to four INT’s. 

The pick: The Bruins enter with momentum and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had five TD pass and two more on the ground. And that’s bad news for an Arizona secondary which has been torched by the pass this year, allowing 373 yards per game. The Bruins have been poor defensively, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Arizona on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab the points and expect a closer than expected battle. 

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic  QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. 

The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover.

10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California.

The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger.

10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: This is an early key AAC West division battle and as such, I think we’re going to see a very competitive affair. Note that the Midshipmen lead the all time series 3-1, including last year’s 22-21 upset victory over the Tigers. Navy likes to slow the game down when on offense, which works against this fast-paced Memphis offense. Keep your eyes on Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who also leads the team in rushing yards and TD’s this year. Memphis has been fantastic early defensively, but I think that over time that the visitors attack will wear down the home side front. 

The pick: The Tigers’ numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition. After a poor offensive showing to open the year vs. Ole Miss, the Tigers put up 55 vs. FCS opponent Southern, while them going on to also beat South Alabama by 42 points. Note that Tigers’ QB Brady White has three TD’s and an three INT’s thus far. Last year it was a one point victory f and the year before that it was a three-point win for the Tigers. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy.

The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today.

The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points.

10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset. I just think that Ohio State will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it plays out the final game of the non-conference schedule. Miami Ohio lost to Iowa 38-14, beat Tennessee Tech 48-17 and then fell to Cincinnati 35-13. Who could fault the Buckeyes for looking past their lowly opponent after starting the year 3-0, with a 45-21 win over FAU, a 42-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 51-10 effort over Indiana last week. 

The pick: Justin Fields clearly has the advantage over Miami’s Brett Gabbert, but as mentioned, this is a situational play more than anything else. The RedHawks have plenty to work on in this game which they know they’re going to lose, while Ohio State can simply “go through the motions” and still get the job done before a difficult upcoming Big Ten schedule. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio 

The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. 

The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points.

10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. 

The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants.

The set-up: Arizona State upset MSU last year and while I’m not calling for a repeat on Saturday afternoon, I do definitely think that the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ASU admittedly faces a better team this year, but Herm Edwards’ side won’t be lacking for motivation or confidence. ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a 300 yard passing game last weekend. MSU is better against the run than the pass, so that plays into Daniels favor on Saturday. 

The pick: The Spartans rely heavily on their run game with Elijah Collins leading the charge, but QB Brian Lewerke still has a few question marks surrounding him in my opinion after a poor 2018 showing. With conference play starting next week, this also sets up as a natural “look ahead” spot for MSU. No outright, but closer than expected.

10* play on Arizona State.

The set-up: It’s the Washington State Cougars vs. the Houston Cougars and if you like offense, then this game is for you! WSU is ranked No. 20 after starting 2-0 and averaging 58.8 PPG. Houston simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in my opinion. Note that WSU QB Anthony Gordon already has 884 yards and nine TD’s this season. Houston is 1-1, losing to Oklahoma in its opener, before beating Prairie View 37-17. 

The pick: Nine different players caught a pass for WSU last week. Keep your eyes on WSU RB Max Borghi as well, who is averaging 95 all purpose yards per game. D’Eriq King is a big time talent for the Cougars, but he lacks the talent around him to keep up down the stretch. Look for Gordon to keep up the blistering pace with his biggest game of the season. 

10* play on Washington State.

The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. 

The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points.

LA Rams 10* play

The set-up: SDSU managed a win over FCS opponent Weber State last week, but it was anything but dominant. UCLA comes in off a poor performance vs. Cincinnati, but I think that the Bruins bounce back in friendly confines. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled last week vs. the Bearcats, but I expect him to bounce back in friendly confines. That said, UCLA’s defense was a strength in the 24-14 setback. 

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well for SDSU QB Ryan Agnew, who last week completed only 16 passes for 108 yards. The Aztecs only managed 130 yards rushing last week as well. The Aztecs have history against them as well, as they’re 0-21-1 vs. the Bruins lifetime, getting outscored 695-241 in the process. I like Chip Kelly to settle down his troops and to deliver the goods at home. Lay the points.

UCLA 10* play

The set-up: No spoilers here, as I look for Iowa to lay the hammer down from start to finish. McClane Carter had 340 passing yards and two TD’s in Rutgers beatdown win over UMass, but clearly now the Scarlet Knights face an entirely different animal in the Hawkeyes. Also note that Carter was in fact picked off three times by the Minutemen. The Scarlet Knights looked good defensively in holding UMass to 14 points, but once again, clearly they’re going to have their hands full with this top tier opponent and in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley was 21 of 30 for 252 yards and three TD’s and no picks last week. He was complimented by RB Mekhi Sargent, who also had four catches for 65 yards (overall the Hawkeyes had 213 yards rushing.) I think Rutgers takes a step back after last week’s “cream puff.” Lay the points.

Iowa 8* play

The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for an outright victory, but for a number of different reasons I do indeed feel that this spread is too large for the Demon Deacons to cover under the Friday Night lights. Wake Forest came from behind to knock off Utah State 38-35 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Rice lost 14-7 to Army, but the Owls were impressive from start to finish and I think they carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Wake Forest had 579 yards last week, but they ran 58 times and threw 47. That translates into only 5.51 yards per play, which ranked 75th in the country. Army ran for 231 yards vs. Rice, but the Owls held the vaunted Black Knights to just 4.1 yards per attempt, the third best in the country of the 26 FBS defensive units which gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week. The Owls looked bad offensively last week, but Army is stout. Note that Wake Forest allowed 596 total yards of offense to Utah State, including 416 through the air. I’m grabbing the points.

Rice 10* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. 

The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points.

Green Bay Packers 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight, I’m definitely going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. 

The pitchers: Nova (9-11, 4.48 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Tribe this year (1-1, 2.14 ERA in three outings), but he enters off back-to-back losses and I definitely think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bieber (12-7, 3.27) enters off a loss despite allowing only three runs over seven inning with nine K’s. Note that Bieber has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four career match ups vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Chicago has actually won eight of 14 meetings in the season series this year, so clearly the home side won’t be looking past its opponent today. This one has “blowout” written all over it.

Cleveland Indians -1.5 10* play

The set-up: I think that laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the wise way to go in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anthony DeSclfani. 

The pitchers: Smyly (2-6, 6.95 ERA) pitched well for his new team in his first two starts, but over his last five he’s posted a 7.20 ERA. With his team desperate for victories though, I believe that the veteran settles down here and matches pace with his overachieving counterpart.

Desclafani (9-7, 4.05) comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout vs. the Marlins on Wednesday. While he does have a winning record (3-1) vs. the Phillies, his ERA vs. them sits a poor 5.40 in that span.

The pick: Additionally note that Philadelphia is still a sharp 18-11 this season vs. the NL Central, while Cincinnati is just 15-16 vs. southpaws. As mentioned off the top, I like Smyly to match DeSclafani and in a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value swings to the hungry dog.

10* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Big changes occurred for both teams in the off-season. Kyler Murray is gone from Oklahoma, and Ed Oliver has left for Houston. Both teams have new coaching staff as well. It’s interesting to note that when these two teams last battled, it was UH which scored the upset to open the 2016 season. While I’m not calling for the upset here, I do think that the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Sooners have been terrible defensively for years, but their offense has masked its inefficiencies. Alex Grinch is the new defensive coordinator for Oklahoma, but I still think the Sooners will struggle on that side of the ball this season. 

The pick: D’Eriq King is back for the Cougars after suffering an early injury last year and he has top RB Patrick Carr back as well (also top WR’s in Courtney Lark, Keith Corbin and Marquez Stevenson.) OU’s defense has been a disaster and while QB Jalen Hurts, a transfer from Alabama should make the offense one of the best in the nation again, the question marks defensively are the difference maker for me in the end. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: There’s no “warm ups” for these two teams as their ACC schedule kicks off in Week 1. BC will then face three straight teams which failed to make a bowl berth last year, so the “look ahead” angle definitely comes into play here for the home side in my opinion. The Hokies have ODU and Furman up next and I believe they come to play today. VT’s offense will have some work to do to catch up to its defense. 

The pick: And that’s bad news for BC’s offensive line, which is the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Eagles defense is also breaking in seven new starters. That doesn’t bode well for a team which had difficulties last year controlling the clock. VT has problems on the offensive side of things, but I believe it’s defense controls this game and I look for it to be the deciding factor in the final outcome. Lay the points.

Virginia Tech 10* play

The set-up: North Carolina welcomes back Mack Brown as head coach as he’ll look to re-ignite his former program. UNC turns to QB Sam Howell, while USC goes with Jake Bentley. This is a neutral site game, which levels the playing field somewhat. South Carolina has the advantage at QB, but otherwise I feel that UNC matches up well with the Gamecocks across the board. 

The pick: The Tar Heels have offensive weapons at RB and at WR and I think Howell can match pace with his veteran counterpart. Note as well that South Carolina is just 4-5 ATS in its last non-conference games, while UNC is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. the SEC. I’m banking on Brown’s guidance to keep this one closer than expected. Grab the points.

UNC 10* play

The set-up: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards in this one. The Buffs have a new head coach in Mel Tucker and he has 11 returning starters, including senior QB Steven Montez to build a foundation upon. Colorado State only had three victories last year and I look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable season opening matchup. 

The pick: Last year the Rams had one of the Nation’s worst defensive units, allowing 451.5 YPG and 36.8 PPG. Colorado has won four straight in this series (by an average margin of 21.5 points). Collin Hill is a talented QB, but he’s in over his head here in my opinion vs. the re-worked Buffs defense. I’m expecting a complete rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Colorado 9* play

The set-up: Arizona State won’t be looking past Kent State here with what is expected to be a “wide open” Pac 12 South. Utah is the fav, but the Sun Devils will be pushing the pace from start to finish after watching Arizona blow its opener in Hawaii last weekend. Arizona actually finished second in the south last year, 7-6 overall and 5-4 in conference action. ASU has a tough matchup at No 18 Michigan State in Week 3, making this non-conference contest vs. the lowly Flashes that much more important. 

The pick: Kent State has zero bowl wins in its 99 year history. The Flashes were 1-7 in MAC action and 2-10 overall. Over the last six year they haven’t had a better record than 4-8. Ken State is led by Woody Barrett, who is a true dual threat. However, the tandem of QB Jayden Daniels and RB Eno Benjamin is going to prove to be too much for this porous Kent State defense to handle today in my opinion. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout.

Arizona St 10* play

The set-up: Neither team will start any of its starters tonight. So that means that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in my opinion. Tennessee was 0-4 SU/ATS last year and it’s 2-9 SU/ATS in the preseason dating back to 2017. 

The pick: Chicago comes in off a win over Indianapolis last weekend, erasing a 17-7 deficit by scoring 20 straight points. Keep your eyes on kick Eddy Pineiro, who had three extra points and two FG’s in the victory. I’m banking on Chicago’s backups carrying over that Week 3 momentum. Lay the points.

Chicago Bears 10* play

The set-up: Outright upset? It’s not out of the realm of possibility at all in my opinion. After finishing 4-17 in 2017, the Gators went 10-3 in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach. That included a win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. While QB Feleipe Franks is back under center for Florida, the big question mark for the Gators (and I think it’s significant in Week 1), is that there are four new starters on the offensive line. 

The pick: Miami was just 7-6 last year. Manny Diaz is now the head coach for the Hurricanes and he went out and grabbed a top play-caller in Dan Enos. Jarren Williams beat out N’Kosi Perry and Tate Martell for the starting QB position for the home side. Williams had two of the ACC’s top receivers in Coral Gables and buffalo transfer KJ Osborn. The uncertain up front for Florida makes the Hurricanes the correct call in Week 1 in my opinion. Grab the points.

Miami Florida 10* play

The set-up: This will be Denver’s third preseason game, as it played in the Hall of Fame Game as well. The Broncos lost four straight to end the regular season last year and they have high hopes with veteran QB Joe Flacco. Denver fell in Seattle last week and Flacco saw limited time in that one. He should see a bit more here, but the veteran will of course be saved for the official Week 3 preseason contest. 

The pick: San Francisco was just 4-12 in 2018 and it’ll be expecting big things from QB Jimmy Garappolo. But the 49ers’ defense was impressive in its Week 1, 17-9 win over the Cowboys. Backup San Fran QB CJ Beathard had a TD pass in the victory. With Denver’s starting defense seeing limited time, I believe Beathard is a difference maker in this one tonight. Grab as many points as you can.

10* COACH’S CLINIC on the San Francisco 49ers.

The set-up: The Vikes rolled to a big 34-25 road victory in New Orleans, but I believe they’ll have a much more difficult time here vs. the hard-hitting Seahawks. Seattle enters off a 22-14 home win over Denver. Seattle was 10-6 in the regular season last year, but 0-4 in the preseason. That included a 21-20 loss to these very Vikings. Can anyone say “revenge” spot? 

The pick: The Vikes offense looked great against a terrible Saints secondary, but Seattle used six of its 11 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and it just held Denver to 291 total yards. Outright victory?! Very possible of course, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.

Seattle Seahawks 10* play

The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points.

Calgary Stampeders 10* play

The set-up: There’s no more meaningless game of the entire year than the first pre-season game. That said, this is the coaching debut of Broncos’ Vic Fangio and because of that, I believe he’s going to be out to win tonight. Fagio was the defensive coordinator of the Bears’ top-ranked defense in 2018. Joe Flacco likely won’t see much or any time for Denver, meaning that rookie Drew Lock from Missouri will be given the green light. 

The pick: Atlanta is just 5-11 in the preseason under head coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons still have more questions than answers after a 7-9 season and I think the Falcons are going to get “out-coached” in Week 1 (note that ATL star receiver Julio Jones is out for the preseason with a foot injury.) I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout in Fangio’s debut.

Denver Broncos 10* play

The set-up: The RedBlacks suffered a humbling 29-14 loss at home to the Blue Bombers last weekend and I believe they’ll take out their frustrations on the very contented Alouettes, who scored the 36-29 upset win at home over the Ti-Cats last time out. Montreal got 203 yards and three rushing TD’s from William Stanback last weekend, but I have a hard time seeing the RB producing the same effort here. Ottawa didn’t help itself last week either by posting 110 penalty yards on ten flags. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range, while Ottawa is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 vs. the division. The stage is set for a big bounce back performance for the RedBlacks. Lay the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC on Ottawa.

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Mets 7-2 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Arrieta (8-6, 4.43 ERA) won his second straight start on Sunday, giving up four runs over six innings to beat the Marlins 13-6. 

Syndergaard (5-4, 4.56) returned from the IL last weekend and he received a no-decision after allowing three runs over five innings vs. the Braves.

The pick: New York has gone 13-23 since May 27th to fall out of contention and its relievers have posted an atrocious 8.01 ERA in that span. Look for Philadelphia to take advantage again.

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

10* play

The set-up: Toronto won two in a row in the pre-season and then it had a Week 1 “bye.” Last weekend it lost its early momentum and looked flat in the embarrassing 64-14 home loss to the red hot Ti-Cats. With that awkward game out of the way, I believe the hungry visitors keep tonight’s contest much more competitive. Saskatchewan won’t be lacking for motivation either after back-to-back losses to open the 2019 campaign. 

The pick: The Riders looked decent in their 44-41 loss at Ottawa, as Cody Fajardo was 27 of 34 in the setback. However, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly and desperate visiting side. Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a loss by 40 points or more, while Saskatchewan is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous outings. Grab the points.

Toronto Argonauts 

10* play

The set-up: Houston won 2-1 on Friday and 6-5 on Saturday. Suffice it to say I’m expecting a much more decisive victory in the finale, as Houston keeps the foot on the gas after a scuffling stretch. The home side goes with Gerrit Cole, while the visitors go with Marco Gonzales.

The pitchers: Cole (7-5, 3.42 ERA) is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over five June starts and he’s 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA over six career outings vs. the M’s, including a 3-2 win on April 14th in which he posted 11 strikeouts. 

Gonzales (9-6, 4.34) has been hit or miss all year, looking unbelievable for stretches and downright terrible in others. Note that he’s 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 11-20 (-8.8 units) this year in all “day” games, while Houston is 6-1 at home as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a lop-sided destruction from start to finish.

Houston Astros -1.5

10* play

The set-up: Suffice it to say, after last night’s meltdown in the ninth inning, I look for the Tribe to bounce back in this favorable spot on Wednesday afternoon. Previous to last night’s victory, the Royals had lost seven straight in this series. The home side hands the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the visitors go with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Junis (4-6, 5.18 ERA) has looked better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign, but when he faced the Indians on April 14th he was shelled for five runs off eight hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA in seven career match ups with the Indians.) 

Bauer (5-6, 3.69) comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Tigers on Friday, but he owns a sharp 3.01 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 8-18 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland is 12-5 as a home fav in the -150 to -200 range. I’m laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price and expecting a decisive rout from start to finish.

Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

10* play

The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris. 

The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

BC Lions (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: After a 2-4 start, the New York Liberty come in on top form having won two straight. Overall the Liberty have averaged 79.7 PPG, while allowing 82. Tina Charles leads the nightly charge with 21.3 points and 9.2 boards per game. Las Vegas has been sliding of late and has fallen back under .500. On the year the Aces average 82.2 PPG and concede 78.6. Kayla McBride leads Las Vegas with 17.2 points and five boards per game. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I believe those trends continue here. Outright win? Unlikely. But I think this will be much more competitive that what this spread would suggest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Aces are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. New York just beat the Aces at home as a ten point dog (allowed just 35.4 percent shooting in that one.) No ATS revenge today for the home side, grab as many points as you can.

10* GAME OF WEEK LIBERTY

The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: The Red Sox look to salvage the final game of this four game series and even it up. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Blake Snell, while the home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Snell (3-5, 3.68 ERA) was untouchable last year for the most part, but this season it’s been quite the opposite. Snell enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings of work.

Rodriguez (6-3, 4.88) has had difficulty with TB in the past, but he enters on top form, having gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA over his last ten starts, including allowing only two runs over seven frames in a win over the Royals on Tuesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TB is now just 10-11 (-3.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records, while Boston is 73-44 (+8.8 units) the last two years in all “day” games. I’m laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs.

10* RL BEST IN SHOW

The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home. 

The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.

The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC

The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.

Golden State Warriors

10* play

The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight. 

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points.

10* BOSTON CELTICS

The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points.

Portland Trail Blazers

10* play

The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points.

LA Clippers

10* play

The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points.

Brooklyn Nets

10* play

The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4. 

The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

Utah Jazz

10* play

The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.

The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.

Miami Heat

10* play

The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

Memphis Grizzlies

10* play

The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well. 

The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play