All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The East Carolina Pirates have opened the season 0-3 and seek the team's first win of the new year Sunday against the 1-1 UConn Huskies at Rentschler Field in Storrs, Ct. ESPNU will televise this AAC matchup of teams each coming off 3-9 seasons. Both schools were scheduled to be off this weekend but the game was moved ahead in to accommodate UConn, which had its Sep. 9 game with USF postponed due to Hurricane Irma. These schools met last season in Greenville, with the Pirates rolling to a 41-3 victory.
UConn: The Huskies' offense is slightly better than ECU's, averaging 436.0 YPG (54th) but it is scoring only 22.5 PPG (105th), which is to say it' has underachieved. On the defensive side of the ball, UConn has allowed 536.5 YPG (125th) but a more modest 29.0 PPG (85th). QB Bryant Shirreffs is now a senior and is completing 69.2 percent of his passes but for only 351 yards (in two games) with three TDs and one interception. The UConn Huskies ground game is not all bad, averaging 183.5 yards YPG (54th). The pick: OK, the Pirates haven't won a road game since 2015 (0-7 SU & ATS) and the team enters this rare Sunday game on a 1-12 ATS run but UConn comes in on an 0-12 ATS run as a home favorite, last covering in that role in the team's 2012 season-opener over UMass. Make East Carolina |
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09-24-17 | Ravens -4 v. Jaguars | Top | 7-44 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's first "London game" of the 2017 season features the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens taking on the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars "across the pond" at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday morning. This will be Jacksonville's fifth straight year playing a game in London but it is a first for Baltimore. The Ravens played the entire preseason without starting QB Joe Flacco but went 4-0, anyway. As Baltimore had insisted, Flacco was ready for Week 1 and while he's been mediocre at best, the Ravens are off to a 2-0 start with a 20-0 win at Cincy and 24-10 home win over the Browns. The Jags opened their 2017 season by upsetting the Texans 29-7 in Houston but then severely disappointed their home crowd by losing 37-16 to the Titans, last Sunday in Jacksonville. Baltimore: Flacco has passed for just 338 yards (Ravens rank 31st of 32 teams in passing yards), as the team's deep threats (Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman) have been non-existent thus far, combining for three catches for just 20 yards receiving. However, the running game is averaging 146.5 YPG (3rd). Once again, Baltimore is relying on its defense, as the Ravens have allowed just 5.0 PPG (2nd) on 303.5 YPG (10th). The Baltimore D has four INTs in each of of its first two games, along with two recovered fumbles plus eight sacks! Jacksonville: Rookie RB Leonard Fournettehad 100 yards rushing in his debut but was held to just 40 yards by the Titans. The Jags are counting on him, as his success is paramount to Doug Marrone's offensive designs as the Jaguars try to rein in the turnover-plagued Bortles. The much-maligned Bortles is completing only 56.4% for 348 yards (Jags rank 28th in passing yards) with two TDs and two INTs (QB rating of 72.4). In the Jags' Week 1 win, Bortles attempted a career-low 21 passes. "However, we can find ways to win, if it's throwing it 50 times or five times, I'm more than willing to do that and fine with it," Bortles said after that game. "It's not, 'I'm mad because we're not throwing the ball enough.' It's not that. I couldn't care less. Anyone believe him? Think that anyone in the organization has much faith in Bortles? The pick: This is the 21st regular-season meeting between the teams and the Jaguars surprisingly lead the series, 11-9 (note: the Ravens and Jaguars were former division rivals in the AFC Central until 2001). Series history means little in this one but as we saw in Week 2, but the fact Bortles reverted to a familiar form with two ill-timed picks and general ineffectiveness in that lopsided loss to the Titans, does. Anyone expect him to deal effectively with this 'nasty' Baltimore D (see above to be reminded)? Not I. Make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 104 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday at Spartan Stadium, the site of one of CFB's many "Game of the Century" contests through the years, back on November 19, 1966 (ended in one of CFB's most famous ties, 10-10). Both schools opened the 2016 season ranked, Michigan State at No. 12 and Notre Dame at No. 10. However, the Spartans finished 3-9 and Notre Dame just 4-8. Less was expected from these legendary programs here in 2017. Notre Dame has opened 2-1, losing only 20-19 to Georgia, which is currently ranked 11th. Michigan State is 2-0, winning home games against MAC schools Bowling Green (35-10) and Western Michigan (28-14). The Spartans had a bye last weekend and this home game against Notre dame represents the school's third home game in a season in which the Spartans open with four consecutive home contests (Iowa visits East Lansing, next Saturday). Notre Dame: Much was expected of new starting QB Brandon Wimbush. His passing numbers are underwhelming after three games (50.5% for 491 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs) but he's run for 314 yards (6.4 YPC) and six TDs. ND's rushing game has been spectacular, averaging 330.7 YPG to rank 5th in the nation (RB Josh Adams leads the way with 443 yards on 7.9 YPC with two TDs). Defensively, Notre Dame is allowing 18.7 PPG. Michigan State: QB Brian Lewerke is completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 411 yards with four TDs and just one interception. Lewerke is also the team's leading rusher (150 yards on 8.8 YPC) for a running game which averages 255.5 YPG. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 12.0 PPG (12th) and the team's 203.5 YPG allowed ranks second in the entire nation. The question is, MSU's competition so far has not been the best. The pick: Michigan State ranks second among opponents in all-time victories (29) over Notre Dame, trailing only USC (37). With its stout defense, many feel like the Spartans as a home dog is the play. However, I differ. Notre Dame's rushing attack is dominant and its defense has looked way better than last year's unit, which allowed 27.8 PPG. Notre Dame has converted all of its red zone opportunities, tied with 19 other schools at 100%. However, no team has as had as many opportunities as The Irish, who are 19-for-19. Make Notre Dame a 10* play. |
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09-23-17 | Louisiana Tech v. South Carolina -8 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-1 teams square off on Saturday at Columbia, South Carolina, as Louisiana Tech takes on South Carolina. The Bulldogs routed Nothwestern State 52-24 to open the season but then found themselves on the wrong side of a 57-21 score at home vs. Mississippi State in their second game (just ask LSU if Miss. St. is any good). South Carolina opened 2-0 in 2017 but will need to find a way to win without its top playmaker, something it couldn't do last Saturday. WR Deebo Samuel had five TDs in the team's first two games (both wins) and then had a 68-yard TD catch on the first play from scrimmage in last week's game vs. Kentucky. However, he suffered a broken left leg and was lost for the season, as South Carolina went on to lose 23-13. La. Tech: Head coach Skip Holtz has led the Bulldogs to three consecutive nine-win seasons, each ending in a bowl victory. This year's starting QB is J'Mar Smith, who's thrown for 722 yards, including three plays of 53 yards or longer, but has completed barely half of his passes (51.5%). Smith had 306 yards passing in the win over Western Ky, completing 22 of 39 (one TD and one INT). La. Tech averages 32.0 PPG but allows 34.3 per, ranking 108th in the nation. South Carolina: QB Jake Bentley threw for 304 yards and two TDs against Kentucky but he also was intercepted twice. The Gamecocks have averaged only 85.7 YPG on the ground (121st) and now that Samuels is out, South Carolina will need to find a way to perk up its offense. "I think we've got some capable guys," head coach Will Muschamp told the media on how he might replace Samuel. "Shi Smith is a freshman we are trying to train up. Bryan Edwards has been a dependable guy. Next man up has to be our mentality." Muschamp can rely on his solid defense, which has allowed 21.3 PPG. The pick: After getting smoked by Miss. State 57-21, La. Tech is eager to show it can compete with an SEC opponent. However, if only wishing could make it so. La. Tech is just 2-9 SU in non-conference away games under Holtz. Not enough points here to take the Bulldogs (a C-USA team) against an SEC opponent. Make South Carolina an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | NC State v. Florida State -11 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Florida State Seminoles opened their 2017 season against preseason No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta. FSU not only lost a game back on Sep. 2, it also lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois to a season-ending knee injury. To add insult to injury, the Seminoles have not played since that game, as the effects of Hurricane Irma have forced the Seminoles to cancel/postpone games against ULM (9/9) and Miami-Fl (9/16). This marks CFB's fourth full weekend and FSU will finally be playing its second game of the 2017 season, when it hosts 2-1 NC State. The Wolfpack opened with a 35-28 home to loss to South Carolina but then beat Marshall 37-20 and Furman 49-16. FSU won 24-20 at NC State last season, giving them eight wins over the last 10 meetings (FSU leads the series 25-11 all-time). NC State: QB Ryan Finley had a solid season in 2016 for NC State, throwing for 3,059 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs. He's completing 75.6% for 987 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs) after three games in 2017, as the Wolfpack are averaging 334.7 YPG through the air to rank 13th in the nation. The NC State defense was solid last season (allowed 22.8 PPG) and comes into this game allowing 23.7 PPG. Florida State: The Seminoles' offense couldn't dent Alabama's defense in their lone 2017 game, scoring just seven points on 250 total yards (just 40 yards rushing). However, the defense played extremely well, holding The Tide to just 269 yards. Florida State will turn the offense over to freshman James Blackman, who will be the first true freshman to start at QB for the Seminoles since 1985. The good news is, he's had some extra time to study the playbook and practice with the first team during the layoff. “He has presence and poise,” head coach Jimbo Fisher said. “I’ve always said the No. 1 thing (quarterbacks) have to have, barring anything, I always look at it very early on, I say the No. 1 thing is presence. … They just have presence. When they talk, there’s a natural command to what they do and how they carry themselves. And I think James does that." The pick: Still fuming from a 24-7 season-opening loss to Alabama on Sep. 2, then seeing its next two games get washed out because of Hurricane Irma, Florida State enters Saturday's contest having not played a game in three weeks. Florida State's 21-day stretch between games is tied for the third-longest layoff between regular-season games in the same season in program history. My bet says the NC State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay it with FSU and make them an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The 0-2 San Francisco 49ers will host the 1-1 LA Rams Thursday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday. The Rams routed the Colts 46-9 in Week 1 but then lost 27-20 to Washington in Week 2. The team will play its first road game of the season here, traveling on a short week, although the trip to Santa Clara is not much of a travel issue. As for the 49ers, they are 0-2 after a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers in Week 1 and a 12-9 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 2. The Rams are coming off a 4-12 season and the 49ers off a 2-14 one, so it's fair to say both teams have this one 'circled' as a rare "winning opportunity." LA Rams: Jared Goff struggled when he played in 2016, after being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick in April. Goff completed just 54.6% in his seven games with five TDs, seven INTs and five lost fumbles (he was 0-5 as a starter). He had a breakout game in Week 1 by completing 21 of 29 for 306 yards with one TD, no INTs and a 117.9 QB rating. However, he was more average against Washington, going 15 of 25 for 224 yards with one TD, one INT and an 86.1 rating. RB Todd Gurley had just 41 yards in Week 1 in the win but looked better with 88 yards (5.5 YPC) in the loss, plus he's caught eight passes for 104 yards. Goff's improved play certainly makes the Ram's a much superior offensive team, averaging 33.0 PPG (LA averaged NFL lows of 14.0 PPG and 262.7 YPG in 2016). The Rams D has allowed 18.0 PPG (11th) on 305.3 YPG (13th) through two games, after allowing 24.6 PPG on 337.0 YPG in 2016. San Francisco: The 49ers have a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and a new starting QB (Brian Hoyer) and so far, the offense has been pathetic. Hoyer has completed 62.9% and thrown for only 292 yards without a a TD pass (two INTs) and currently owns a 60.7 QB rating. RB Carlos Hyde has 169 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC but the team has averaged 6.0 PPG, amazingly ranking 31st of 32 teams (talk about a lack of scoring!). SF does rank dead-last (32nd) in total yards, at 232.5 YPG. Considering the team's woeful offensive performance, the defense has played well. San Francisco ranks 10th in both points allowed (17.5 per) on 299.5 YPG. The pick: I noted at the top that both teams have to feel like this is a winnable one. However, the 49ers have to realize just how important winning here, is. The 49ers play their next three games on the road, return home to play the Cowboys and then travel cross-country to play the Eagles. Lose here and an 0-8 start looks pretty feasible. San Francisco just dominated the Rams at this venue last year, winning 28-0 and then upset the Rams later in the Coliseum, 22-21. Make San Francisco an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -20.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Temple Owls will visit Tampa and Raymond James Stadium Thursday night on ESPN to take on the 3-0 South Florida Bulls, who are currently ranked No. 21 in the AP poll. The Bulls will have a short week for the second game in a row, having played Illinois last Friday night, when they pulled away to an easy 47-23 victory, with 680 yards of total offense. Temple's new head coach Geoff Collins knows what his team is in for, as on Monday he said, "They have tremendous athletes across the board -- a big, physical offensive line and a dynamic quarterback who can hurt you with his arm and hurt you with his legs. They're a complete offense." Temple: The Owls are coming off back-to-back 10-4 seasons but reaching double digit wins this year may be a stretch. Temple opened with the 2017 season with a 49-16 loss at Notre Dame, before beating Villanova and UMass (schools better-known for their basketball programs) by only a combined 11 points! QB Logan Marchi has taken over for the graduated Walker and has looked pretty good. He's thrown for 767 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. However, the running game, which averaged just over 175 YPG in 2016, has averaged a woeful 94.3 YPG (117th) on 2.9 YPC after three games (two coming against cupcakes 'Nova and UMass). Forget the team's defensive numbers against Villanova and U Mass and concentrate on the 49 points and 606 yards the Owls allowed at Notre Dame and one has to believe Temple is in deep trouble in this contest. USF: Quinton Flowers has yet to 'explode' after three games (678 passing yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 243 yards rushing and 2 TDs) but the key is he's got USF's offense clicking on all cylinders. USF averages 40.0 PPG on 522.3 YPG (15th), including 281.3 YPG rushing (13th). RBs Tice (256 yards & 4 TDs) and Johnson (215 yards) give the Bulls quite a solid duo to complement Flowers' rushing ability (note: he rushed for 1,530 yards in 2016 on 7.7 YPC and scored 18 TDs!). The Bulls' D has been more than "good enough," allowing 20.7 PPG (48th) on 323.3 YPG (42nd). The pick: The Bulls enter this game having scored 30-plus points in 20 straight games and just how will Temple's D (see Notre Dame stats above!) be able to keep USF in check on its home field? Making matters worse for Temple is that the Owls beat USF last season in Philly, 46-30. As the saying goes, "revenge is a dish best served cold." USF is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. Make the Bulls a 10* play. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-0 Detroit Lions visit MetLife Stadium and the 0-1 New York Giants for MNF on ESPN. Matthew Stafford completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 292 yards with four TDs and just one INT in Detroit's 35-23 Week 1 home win over Arizona. As for the Giants, they look for a bounce back performance after losing 19-3 at the Dallas Cowboys on SNF in Week 1. Manning completed 76.3 percent of his passes for 220 yards but did not lead the Giants into the end zone, while tossing one INT and getting sacked three times. Detroit: The passing game graded out as an "A" in Week 1, with Golden Tate reeling in 10 catches for 107 yards, rookie Kenny Golladay grabbing four catches and making a favorable impression with a pair of fourth-quarter TD plus RB Theo Riddick also had six catches with a TD reception,. However, the rushing attack ran for just 82 yards (3.0 YPC) leaving head coach Jim Caldwell to say, "It needs work. We just got to keep working at it and (it's) not where we want it yet." The Lions' D was fine against the Cards, holding them to 308 yards (but 24 FDs) and 23 points, while forcing four TOs (three INTs). NY Giants: The offense was mostly revamped in the off-season with the additions of WR Brandon Marshall, TEs Rhett Ellison and Evan Engram, plus the promotion of Paul Perkins to starting RB. The mainstays are QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. OBJ sat out Week 1 and New York's offense couldn't get out of its own way. I noted Eli's numbers above and as a team, the Giants totaled a modest 233 yards on 13 FDs (4 of 12 on third-downs). Perkins ran for 16 yards (seven carries), as the team had just 35 yards rushing (2.9 YPC). The Giants' D, considering it got no relief from its offense, did well to hold the Cowboys to 19 points. The pick: Obviously, an OBJ return would be huge for the Giants but his status is iffy, as would be his contributions if he did play. The Lions didn't pull away from the Cards in Week 1 until the fourth quarter and I'm still not ready to trust that defense. I did allow 24 FDs but was 'saved' by forcing four TOs. However, the Lions' pass D allowed opposing QBs to complete a historic 72.7 percent of their pass attempts in 2016, while the defensehad just 14 takeaways, tying them for 28th (with the Jets). As for that Giants' D, it did its best last week vs. Dallas and let's not forget how good it was last year, when the Giants allowed only 17.8 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL) plus went from allowing an NFL-high 420.3 YPG in 2015, to allowing 339.7 YPG in 2016. Detroit is a different team away from its dome (12-20 SU the last four seasons) and I'm "all over" the Giants as a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Jets +14 v. Raiders | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Jets head to Oakland in Week 2 to take on the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum. Not much is expected from the Jets in 2017 and that's just what we all saw in Week 1. New York gained just 214 yards (11 FDs) in Buffalo, while the Bills gained 408 yards. The Jets allowed the Bills to rush for 190 yards (4.5 YPC) and were able to only run for 38 yards themselves (2.5 YPC). Maybe the Jest were lucky to lose by just nine points. In contrast, the Raiders impressed in their 26-16 Week 1 at Tennessee. QB Derek Carr, who signed a five-year, $125 million extension with the team this off-season, has clearly recovered nicely from the broken fibula is suffered in Week 16 last season. He completed 22 of 32 passes against the Titans for 262 yards with two TDs and no interceptions. Marshawn Lynch ran for 76 yards against the Titans in his first game following a one-year retirement. NY Jets: Looking for positives from Week 1, former Raider Josh McCown completed 26-of-39 passes for 187 yards and ran for the Jets' lone TD versus the Bills. His top target was Jermaine Kearse, who had seven catches for 59 yards in his debut with the club. However, RBs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell MUST do better. The good news is that they are very capable and have a history of being effective players. Maybe New York's best performances in Week 1 came from its kickers. Chandler Catanzaro converted a pair of long FGs (48 & 52 yards) plus had three kickoffs go for touchbacks. Punter Lachlan Edwards averaged 43.7 yards on six punts. Oakland: The Raiders' 12-4 record in 2016 ended 13 consecutive non-winning and playoff-less seasons for Oakland (going back to the 2002 season, when the Raiders lost to the Bucs in the Super Bowl). Expectations were high coming into 2017 and the team's Week 1 performance at Tennessee may have cured any doubters. Carr was excellent (see above), completing passes to eight different receivers, with Michael Crabtree making a team-high six catches for 83 yards. Speaking of special teams play, Oakland just may have found a suitable replacement for Sebastian Janikowski, who has been placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Giorgio Tavecchio, who was 9-for-11 on FG attempts during the preseason, converted all four of his attempts against Tennessee, including a pair from 52 yards out. His performance earned him the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honor. The pick: Oakland's Derek Carr has a high-quality WR duo in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree plus a good TE in Jared Cook. Lynch may have turned back the clock and will at worst, vastly improve the rushing game in 2017. As for Josh McCown, he no longer owns a legit deep threat, as the Jets could arguably own the worst offense in the NFL after discarding their top play-makers prior to the start of this season. All that said, aren't we asking an awful lot from this Oakland team? There was just one double-digit favorite in Week 1 (Steelers closed minus-10 at the Browns) and here in Week 2, Oakland (about a two-TD favorite over the Jets), is the lone double-digit favorite of Week 2. Note that the Steelers barely eked out a three-point win over the Browns in Week 1 and the next-highest favorite in Week 1 was the Pats. In case you have forgotten, the Pats were routed 42-27 at home vs. the Chiefs, as a nine-point choice. Take the huge points and make the Jets a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 51 m | Show |
The set up: The Philadelphia Eagles will venture into Arrowhead Stadium for a Week 2 game with the Kansas City Chiefs. It's a 'family reunion' of sorts, as new Philly head coach Doug Pederson played for Andy Reid (current KC head coach) in Green Bay and Philadelphia, before joining his coaching staffs with the Eagles and Chiefs. Pederson was Reid’s offensive coordinator in Kansas City from 2013-15, so he has a great understanding of the team's offense. The Eagles won 30-17 at Washington last Sunday but no team's Week 1 win was more impressive than KC's season-opening win 42-27 at New England, as nine-point underdogs. Philadelphia: QB Carson Wentz had a strong opener, going 26-of-39 for 307 yards with two TDs and an interception. However, the Eagles will need more from the running game, as LeGarrette Blount finished with only 46 yards on 14 carries against Washington (Eagles ran for only 58 yards as a team on 2.4 YPC!). A juiced-up pass rush harried Washington's Kirk Cousins all game, accounting for four sacks. The defense forced four turnovers in Week 1, including one fumble recovery which was returned 20 yards for a TD. Kansas City: Andy Reid went against type in allowing Alex Smith to 'fire deep' against the Pats and it paid huge dividends. Smith completed 28 of 35 for 368 yards (4 TDs / 0 INTs / 148.6 QB rating) plus rookie RB Karrem Hunt ran for 148 yards and a TD (8.7 YPC) and caught five passes, including a 78-yard TD. WR Hill had seven catches for 133 yards, including a 75-yard TD. Then there was the KC defense which held Brady without a TD pass on 36 attempts (just 16 completions). The pick: Would it be possible for the Chiefs to match their Week 1 performance? I think not and that improved Philly defense (especially its ability to pressure the QB), may make it very difficult (if not impossible) for Alex Smith to repeat his Week 1 performance. Philly QB Wentz is playing with an upgraded roster on both sides of the ball and let's note that this second-year player is now a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in September games. Can you say upset? Make the Eagles an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 47-21 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney claims he loves playing in big games and his team's showdown against Louisville on Saturday night certainly qualifies. ABC will be on hand as current AP No. 3 Clemson (2-0) and the defending national champs, travel to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. to take on 2-0 Louisville, which is currently ranked 14th in the AP poll. Eventual Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson almost single-handedly lifted Louisville to victory in last year's contest at Clemson, totaling 457 yards and accounting for four TDs in a game that wasn't decided until Louisville came up one yard shy of a first down at the Clemson 3-yard line in the final seconds (Clemson won 42-36). Clemson has won all three previous meetings between the two schools, although each has been decided by six points or less. Clemson: New Tiger QB Kelly Bryant has passed early tests (68.6% completions with one TD & one INT plus 136 yards rushing on 5.2 YPC with three TDs). However, after routing Kent State 56-3 (665 total yards), the Tigers gained just 281 yards in their 14-6 win over Auburn. So far, the key has been Clemson's defense. The Tigers' defensive front, anchored by All-America candidates Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence at tackle, plus Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell at end, may be the best in the country. Clemson had 11 sacks, one shy of the school record against Auburn last Saturday. The Tigers rank second nationally in total defense (118.5 YPG) and sacks and are in the top-10 in seven defensive categories. Clemson has not allowed a TD this season and held Auburn to 117 total yards (13 FDs), including 15 second-half yards! Amazingly, Clemson's allowing 4.5 PPG but that ranks just THIRD (?). Louisville: Jackson's performance last season in “Death Valley” set up his "Heisman-push" (295 YP / 162 YR / 3 total TDs). Only Archie Griffin has won two Heismans (back-to-back in 1974 and 1975) but Jackson is not about to relinquish his Heisman without a fight after 525 yards of total offense at North Carolina. He enters this game with 771 passing yards and a 5-0 ratio plus 239 rushing yards with three TDs after just two games. Jackson has became only the second player in FBS history to have at least 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in consecutive games. The pick: Clemson has won 10 consecutive games on opponents’ home fields but Louisville is still smarting from last year's loss in Death Valley. There is no doubt that Clemson's defense is special but it couldn't contain Jackson at home last year (see above). How can it do better here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville? "We've had three really good battles with them – had our opportunities and have come up short – so this is something that is really important to our players,” Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino told reporters. “First of all, we should have confidence that we're there and that we can play, but it is up to us to win the game.”I agree and will make Louisville my 10* CFB Game of the Year! |
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09-16-17 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Florida | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: SEC East rivals Tennessee and Florida square off in Gainesville at "The Swamp" on Saturday. The Vols come in 2-0 and ranked No. 23 in the latest AP poll, while the 0-1 Gators are still in the top-25, at No. 24. The Volunteers made a remarkable comeback vs. Ga. Tech on Labor Day evening in Atlanta, rallying from a two-TD deficit in the 4th quarter to send the game to OT. The Vols would win 42-41, when they squashed a Ga. Tech two-point try in the second OT. Win No. 2 came much easier, beating FCS Indiana State 42-7. The Gators canceled last Saturday's home game with Northern Colorado due to Hurricane Irma and could have really used the work. Florida opened its season with a marquee matchup against Michigan on September 2 in Arlington (Jerry's House) and were just awful. Michigan beat Florida 33-17 but the final is not the half of it! Both Florida TDs were scored on interceptions returned for a TD, meaning the Florida offense put just three points on the board. The Gators were held to 192 totals yards, gaining just 13 FDs (went 2 of 13 on 3rd down conversion attempts). The Volunteers come to Gainesville on Saturday after winning 38-28 at home last season, a victory which snapped an 11-game losing streak in the series. Tennessee: The Vols are 2-0 but there is plenty of room for improvement, head coach Butch Jones said. "We have a lot of work to do with this football team, and that starts with our overall physicality," Jones said. "I didn't think we played to the level of physicality that's up to our standard and expectations." Joshua Dobbs in now in the NFL and it looks as Jr. Quinten Dormady is emerging as the Vols' full-time QB over Jarrett Guarantano. Dormady enters the week with a passer rating of 143.7 to go along with 415 passing yards, four TDs and an interception. The Volunteers are averaging 42.0 PPG (27th) thanks not only to the offense, but to strong work on special teams and defense. Freshman Ty Chandler returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown last weekend, marking the team’s ninth punt- or kickoff-return TD since 2015. Florida: QB Feleipe Franks will start against Tennessee after an up-and-down debut against Michigan. The red-shirt freshman completed 5 of 9 passes for 75 yards and showed some scrambling ability before being pulled after losing a fumble while going for a first down in the third quarter. If he can't do the job, though, coach Jim McElwain could turn to Notre Dame graduate transfer Malik Zaire (9 of 17 for 106 yards in the opener as a replacement for Franks) or even part-time 2016 starter Luke Del Rio, possibly in a two-minute situation. Regardless of which QB takes the most snaps, he could sure use more help from the running game, which gained only 11 yards on 27 carries in the opening loss to Michigan. The pick: Sure, Florida is well-rested and anxious to redeem itself off that Michigan 'nightmare.' The Gators also have revenge from last year's 10-pont loss at Tennessee, which ended an 11-game winning streak in the series for Florida. However, the Gators are totally unsettled at QB and off the Michigan game, have little or no running game. Also, last year's win and cover by the home team (Tennessee), snapped a 6-0-1 ATS streak by the road team in this bitter rivalry. I want any points I can get. Make the Vols an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Baylor +14.5 v. Duke | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I wonder if Matt Rhule would like to reconsider taking the Baylor job and leaving Temple? Baylor has not only opened 0-2, the Bears have lost outright as a 33 1/2-point favorite against Liberty and then as a 12 1/2-point favorite against UT-San Antonio, both at home! Here, the Bears will take an eight-game regular season losing streak to Durham, North Carolina to face Duke. The Blue Devils took FCS foe North Carolina Central 'to the woodshed' 60-7 in their season-opener and then dismantled Northwestern 41-17 last week (out-gained the Wildcats 538-to191). This marks Duke's third straight home game and it's Homecoming! Baylor: The Bears won 10-plus games in four of five seasons from 2011 through 2015 and opened 2016 at 6-0. Baylor entered Game 7 of the season at No. 8 when it lost 35-34 at Texas. The Bears ended the regular season on a six-game slide but then upset Boise State 31-12 in the Cactus Bowl, as about a TD underdog. Matt Ruhle was terrific at Temple, going 10-4 in 2015 and 10-3 last year, before taking the Baylor job prior to Temple losing its bowl game. Baylor is trying to recover from the sexual assault scandal that rocked the university and resulted in the firing of former head coach Art Briles in May 2016. Rhule has completely junked the Art Briles offense and Arizona transfer QB Anu Solomon has struggled, completing 43.6% in the team's first two games. Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as Baylor's pass defense yielded only 155 yards passing to UT San Antonio, after surrendering an incredible 447 yards in the opener. Duke: The Blue Devils entered last season off four consecutive bowl appearances but stumbled to a 4-8 season. However, head coach David Cutcliffe's 10th season in Durham is off to a exciting start. Dual-threat QB Daniel Jones has completed 68.6% for 518 yards (4 TDs / 1 INT) and rushed for 127 yards (6.4 YPC) and three more TDs. Duke is averaging 50.5 PPG (10th) on 531.0 YPG (18th) plus a defense which allowed 28.2 PPG in 2016, has allowed 12.0 PPG (19th) on 174.5 YPG (7th). The pick: Heading into this game, there can be no doubt that we have two teams heading in opposite directions. Baylor has more issues than most people realized, while Duke is simply cruising. The Blue Devils are a splendid 18-2 in their last 20 regular season non-conference games (the most successful streak in program history) but it's just hard to get may head around the fact that Duke, DUKE, is a two-TD favorite over Baylor. Rhule announced during the week that Arizona graduate transfer Solomon will be replaced by sophomore Zach Smith against Duke. Smith started four games last season and completed 116-of-196 passes for 1,526 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. Take the points and make Baylor an 8* play. |
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09-14-17 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals each flopped badly at home in their respective 2017 season-openers. The Texans, as 5 1/2-point favorites over the Jags, lost 29-7 and the Bengals, as a three-point favorite over the Ravens, lost 20-0. The Texans gained just 203 total yards (the Jags' 10 sacks were a huge part of that!), while Cincy QB Andy Dalton threw four INTs (plus lost a fumble for five total TOs!), as the Bengals gained only 221 yards and got shut out at home for the first time since 2001. Houston: The Texans traded up in the first round of the 2017 Draft and selected Clemson QB Deshaun Watson 12th overall, but head coach Bill O'Brien stood firm on his commitment to fourth-year veteran Tom Savage as his starting signal-caller, citing both experience and familiarity with the offense as primary reasons behind that decision. However, Savage's "experience" resume stated that he had only played in five career games with just 92 passes attempts and (zero career TD passes! It was fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualified as an "interesting choice." Thirty minutes into the first game of the season, O'Brien flip-flopped, benching Savage at the half of the Texans' embarrassing 29-7 home loss. Savage was 7 of 13 for 62 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) and was sacked six times and the Texans trailed 19-0. O'Brien felt that the mobile Watson could effectively elude pressure and provide the Texans a sorely needed offensive spark. However, the Jaguars sacked Watson four times and he was just 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a TD and an INT. Houston's rushing attack mustered just 93 yards. Cincinnati: The Bengals managed a measly 221 total yards on 58 plays with Andy Dalton 'laying an egg.' It was a woeful performance by the vet, as he completed 16 of 31 for 170 yards with five turnovers (4 INTs). He posted a 28.4 QB rating, delivering his worst showing since Nov. 6, 2014, when he passed for 86 yards with three interceptions in a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. For all the promise assigned to rookie RB Joe Mixon, he produced just nine yards on eight carries in his debut. The Bengals' amassed only 77 yards rushing (3.5 YPC) as a team. The defense was fine, as Flacco completed just 9 of 17 for 121 yards (1 TD / 1 INT). Yes, the Ravens did rush for 157 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. The pick: Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton was the solid play of Cincinnati's defense. However, can one really trust Dalton to bounce back against a quality Houston defense? Remember, the Texans led the NFL in yards allowed last season (301.3 YPG), despite All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missing all but three games. Also, Cincy's running game needs to get straightened out. Deshaun Watson will be Houston's starter on Thursday and I expect him to really test that Cincy D. Also, let's not ignore that Houston has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams (including the postseason) and held Cincinnati to 10 points (in 2016) and six points (in 2015) in wins these last two seasons. Make Houston a 8* play. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
\The set-up: The New Mexico Lobos take their 1-1 record to Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho (home of the famous Blue Turf) to face the the 1-1 Boise State Broncos Thursday night in college football action on ESPN. New Mexico opened with a 38-14 home win over Abilene Christian but then lost 30-28 (again, at home) last Saturday to in-state rival New Mexico State. Boise State opened 2017 with a less-than-impressive 24-13 home win over Troy and then last Saturday night at Washington State, lost 47-44 in a three-OT thriller. What a contrast in both of last week's results. New Mexico trailed 30-5 into the 4th-quarter last week and its 23-point final period left them two points shy, when a two-point try failed. As for Boise, the Broncos held a 21-point lead midway through the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold onto that lead after the Cougars tied the game at 31 with just 1:44 left in regulation. Boise State then lost in three OTs. New Mexico: The Lobos made a strong comeback but came up just short at NMSU. QB Lamar Jordan threw for a career-high 213 yards in the team's season-opening win and while no player ran for more than 65 yards, the Lobos ran for 259. However, against NMSU, Jordan was benched, as Tevaka Tuioti completed 10 of 19 passes for 151 yards and two TDs, while leading a comeback that just fell short. Jordan's starting job might be in jeopardy. Defensively, New Mexico is holding its opponents to an average of 22.0 PPG, not bad for a unit which allowed 31.5 PPG last year. However, the Lobos allowed Boise State QB Brett Rypien to throw for 391 yards and four TDs in a 49-21 loss in 2016. Boise State: Like New Mexico, Boise State turned to its backup QB last weekend. Montell Cozart went 12-20 with 161 yards passing, two TDs plus added 72 yards and a TD on the ground, after starting QB Brett Rypien left the game early with an undisclosed injury. Although Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore, he was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He left with an early injury last week, after completing 7 of 8 passes for 76 yards. Boise State's defense allowed 433 passing yards against Washington State but only 22 rushing yards, on 27 attempts. The pick: Brett Rypien is likely out for this game as he recovers from a head injury, so all eyes will be on Montell Cozart to take care of the ball against an opportunistic Lobos defense (Broncos got in trouble last week when the Cougars returned a fumble and an interception for TDs). The last time the Lobos came to Boise in 2015, New Mexico (a 31-point underdog) won 31-24 over a then 7-2 Broncos team. The Broncos are not the 10-3 team they were in 2016. Note that Boise Stae was 0-6 ATS at home in 2016 and barely covered against Troy as a 10 1/2-point choice in an 11-point win to open 2017. Take the points and make New Mexico a 10* play. |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL serves up a MNF doubleheader with the New Orleans Saints visiting the Minnesota in the first half. One can't ignore the irony, as after serving as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, Adrian Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night. The 2012 NFL MVP hopes to show his-former team that he still has plenty left in the tank. "Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." New Orleans: The Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009 and through 2013, made the playoffs in four of five years. However, last year's 7-9 season marked the third straight year New Orleans has gone exactly 7-9, naturally missing the playoffs each time. The Saints finished the preseason with a 2-2 record and opens 2017 with Drew Brees at QB for another season. Brees put up yet another 5,000 yard season, throwing for 5,208 yards, 37 TDs and 15 INTs. WR Brandin Cook is now in New England but Michael Thomas was terrific in his rookie season of 2016 (will hope to replicate the success from his rookie season in 2016 (92 catches for 1137 yards with 9 TDs). Ted Ginn Jr. joins the fray to add a speed threat for the Saints on the outside (also adds as a special-teamer). We know this, that like Brady, Brees has "made do" with whomever lines up as his pass-catchers over his career. The "unknown" is, where will Adrian Peterson fit in the offense? Many expect Mark Ingram to lead the ground game for the Saints heading into the season, after coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), yards from scrimmage (1,362) and total TDs (10). New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons, including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016 at 28.4. Enough said. Minnesota: The Vikings made the postseason in 2015 (can anyone forget their hard-breaking loss to Seattle in that one?), although that was the team's lone winning season from from 2013 through 2016 (went 8-8 last year). Mike Zimmer had been a preseason 'monster,' going 12-1 in his first three seasons as Minnesota's head coach but this year's team went 2-2 this preseason. Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season (71.6%), due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota hopes it has addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the off-season (TBD). However, Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense which ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9 per). The Vikings return nearly every starter. The pick: The Vikings shocked everyone by opening 5-0 SU & ATS in 2016 but a Week 6 bye seemingly derailed their season. After returning, Minnesota finished 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. I, for one, believe the team's 5-0 start was a 'mirage' and the rest of Minnesota's season is what we will see more of in 2017. Historically, the Saints have been a great home team but a poor road one. However, that was surely NOT the case in 2016, as the Saints were a highly-profitable 7-1 ATS on the road, including 6-1 as a road dog (note: Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games). Is this strictly an offense vs. defense matchup? Not so fast. The New Orleans' defense made some good additions and played with improved resolve in the preseason. Take the points and make the Saints a 10* play. |
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09-10-17 | Colts +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 9-46 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Rams will be kicking off their NFL season at LA's Memorial Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. The Colts lost their first two preseason games against the Lions (24-10) and Cowboys (24-19), but won the final two against the Steelers (19-15) and Bengals (7-6). Indy is off back-to-back 8-8 seasons, both affected by Andrew Luck's injury woes. The Rams' return to LA didn't go well in 2016, as they lost 11 of their last 12 games to finish 4-12. The Rams have now missed the playoffs for 12 straight years and recorded 13 straight non-winning seasons (8-8 in both 2006 and 2004). The Rams won their first two preseason games, 13-10 over the Cowboys and 24-21 over the Raiders but then dropped their last two, 21-19 versus the Chargers and 24-10 in Green Bay. Indianapolis: The Colts will be without star QB Andrew Luck against the Rams. Scott Tolzien will make his fourth career start in place of Luck. Tolzien's main target will be T.Y. Hilton, who led the NFL last year with 1,448 receiving yards and is one of four players in league history with at least 850 yards and five touchdown catches in each of his first five seasons. Frank Gore rushed for 1,025 yards last season, becoming the first Indianapolis running back to reach the 1,000-yard plateau since Joseph Addai accomplished the feat in 2007. Gore is looking to become the fifth player in NFL history to hit the mark in 10 different campaigns. LA Rams: New head coach Sean McVay will step in and look to reverse what's been a losing situation for the Rams. It doesn't help that Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (the team's top defensive player) is expected to miss Week 1 as he continues to hold out for a new contract. Los Angeles' defense ranked ninth in the league last season but figures to struggle without Donald - something new coordinator Wade Phillips will attempt to avoid. RB Todd Gurley had 1,212 yards from scrimmage in 2016, marking the second straight season he has registered at least 1,200. WR Austin is a triple threat, after a season in which he had 52 catches for 509 yards (3 TDs), gained 364 yards on 44 punt returns and added 159 yards and a score on 28 rushes. Last year's overall No. 1 pick, Jared Goff, opens the season as the starter (54.6% with 5-7 ratio & 63.6 QB rating in 2016). The pick: The Colts' D is among the bottom-half of all defenses but the Rams owned the NFL's worst offense in 2016, averaging league-lows in both points (14.0) and yards (262.7). The jury is still out on Goff and he will take the field Sunday, 0-7 as an NFL starter. In losing 11 of their last 12 games in 2016, the Rams went 1-10-1 ATS in those contests. After a 9-3 Week 2 shocker over Seattle, the Rams lost their final seven home games, going 0-6-1 ATS. No way Rams should be laying points. Make Indy an 8* play. |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars v. Texans -4 | Top | 29-7 | Loss | -110 | 2858 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans are off back-to-back playoff appearances, including the franchise's first-playoff win last year. Even though Houston has made a postseason Jacksonville: Yes, the Jags have a string of six consecutive losing seasons but the team is far from pessimistic about 2017. The defense ranked sixth in yards allowed in 2016 (321.7 YPG) but gave up 25.0 PPG due to poor offensive production and a minus-16 TO ratio (third-worst in the NFL). The addition of RB Leonard Fournette and WR Dede Westbrook in the draft is good news but the QB position is, to say the least, iffy. Jacksonville needs solid QB play to take the next step but after a huge drop-off in his 2016 performance (off a promising 2015 one), Bortles didn't showcase that improvement in the preseason. With a chance to move ahead of Bortles in the preseason, veteran Chad Henne failed to do so. Houston: The Texans traded embattled QB Brock Osweiler before the draft, then took Clemson's Deshaun Watson with the 12th overall pick. However, Tom Savage will get the start at QB. He has just two starts under his belt, both coming last season when starter Brock Osweiler proved too ineffective to maintain the charade of his reliability and trust. Savage has only played in five career games and attempted just 92 passes (zero career TD passes!) It's fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualifies as an "interesting choice." All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missed all but three games last season after undergoing two back operations but Houston still led the NFL in yards allowed (301.3 YPG). Think his return will hurt? The pick: Doug Marrone, who was 15-17 in two seasons with the Bills and served as interim coach for the final two games last season for Jacksonville, is the Jaguars' fifth head coach. I have to wonder what he really offers and will Bortles be able to focus on his play, while blocking out that noise of disappointment from fans? Houston has won six straight in the series, meaning Bortles has yet to beat this Romeo Crennel-led defense (note: Jags are just 2-22 on the road the last three seasons, overall!). Bortles has just six TD passes vs. eight picks in those games. I'd rather see Clemson rookie Deshaun Watson at QB but for this matchup with Jacksonville, Savage appears to be a serviceable option. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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09-10-17 | Jets +7 v. Bills | Top | 12-21 | Loss | -105 | 219 h 22 m | Show |
NY Jets: This team has gotten rid of most of its offensive veterans and then traded its star player on defense, Sheldon Richardson, just last week to the Seahawks. The 38-year-old Josh McCown played fairly well in the second half of last season with the Cleveland Browns and becomes the Jets' starting QB. However, he did not epect to have much help from his receiving corps, and that was before Quincy Enunwa was lost to a season-ending neck injury in the off-season. Aging running back Matt Forte and all-purpose threat Bilal Powell are the team's top play-makers. All-in-all, New York's defense hung in there last year, allowing 342.4 YPG to rank 11th in total D. Buffalo: First-year head coach Sean McDermott said he intends to lean heavily on dual-threat running back LeSean McCoy (1,267 rush yards & 13 TDs plus 50 receptions last season). That would make sense and he's also happy to see that Tyrod Taylor cleared concussion protocol just in time to get the nod at QB. Taylor completed 61.7% for 3023 yards last season plus ran for 580 (6.1 YPC) and six more TDs. Rex Ryan was supposed to be a defensive gluru but Buffao's defense ranked behind that of New York's last season, allowing 357.0 YPG (19th). The pick: Due to the lack of offensive weapons on both sides, this game looks to be a low-scoring affair and that favors the underdog Jets. Let's also not forget that the Jets beat the Bills in both of last year's meetings, 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday night game at home and then 31-10 up in Buffalo in Week 17. Grab the points and make the Jets a 10* play. |
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09-09-17 | Boise State +10.5 v. Washington State | Top | 44-47 | Win | 100 | 82 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-0 Boise State Broncos will travel to Marin Stadium in Pullman, Washington to take on the 20th-ranked 1-0 Washington State Cougars this Saturday night. Washington State opened 24th in AP's preseason poll, just the third time in school-history that the Cougars were a top-25 team in the preseason. The team's 31-0 win over Montana State last Saturday marked the school's first season-opening win since Mike Leach took over in 2012 and the Cougars moved up to No. 20. Boise State is off a 10-3 season in 2016, one which included a 31-28 home win over Washington State. The Cougars rallied from 17 points down in the third quarter in that one and QB Luke Falk, who threw for 480 yards, had a last-second heave batted down. Boise State escaped with its 34th consecutive home win against a non-conference opponent at the time. Boise State: The Broncos were unimpressive in last week's 24-13 at home win over Troy. QB Brett Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore. He was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He was sacked four times and threw an interception that was returned for a TD. In fact, backup QB Montell Cozart, a graduate transfer from Kansas, led the Broncos to both of their offensive TDs (he was 6 of 9 for 50 yards with one TD pass and 0 INTs plus had 36 rush yards). Boise State has had solid defenses through most of the team's recent outstanding successes and at least against Troy, looked good, holding the Trojans to 215 yards and 11 FDs. Washington State: QBs like Sam Darnold (USC), Baker Mayfield (Okla), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and JT Barrett (Ohio St) all get more Heisman hype but WSU's Luke Falk may be the best QB in college football. If that's not true, he may at worst, have the best numbers. He completed his first 20 passes last week and finished 33 of 39 for 311 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. I won't bore you. Check out his career stats. He'll finish his career among the very best in all of CFB history. Leach's first five defenses at Washington State have allowed 33.7 PPG, 32.5 PPG, 38.6 PPG, 27.7 PPG and 26.4 PPG. It's been a slight improvement these last two seasons and nine starters return. It's hard to judge after a home win over Montana State but the Cougars did allow just 143 yards, seven FDs and allowied Montana State to convert just 1 of 11 third downs. The pick: Washington State is playing with a big revenge motive plus some say that there is a QB controversy brewing at Boise after HC Bryan Harsin yanked starter Rypien in favor of backup Cozart, However, Harsin reiterated earlier this week that Rypien's status as the starter has not changed. I don't see how one can trust Washington State as this much of a favorite over a Boise Stae team that hasn't been an underdog since meeting Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2014 season. BTW,...Boise State (+3) won that game, 38-30. Take the points and make Boise State an 8* play. |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -6 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 14 Stanford returns from a 62-7 rout of Rice (Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia) to play No. 6 USC this Saturday at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Stanford dominated Rice on both sides of the football and had no trouble securing the victory after taking a 41-0 lead at halftime. The 4th-ranked Trojans had all they could handle against Western Michigan last Saturday but was able to pull away. USC found themselves in a battle as the game was tied at 21 all at the end of the 3rd quarter but a 14-point scoring outburst over a 36 second span late in the 4th quarter led to a 49-21 win. Stanford: The Cardinal out-gained Rice 656-241 in total yards. RB Bryce Love had 180 rushing yards and a TD on just 13 carries (13.8 YPC) plus fellow RB Scarlett had 59 yards (7.4 TPC) plus three TDs. Stanford has to be very encouraged by the play of QB Keller Chryst, who was injured throughout spring practice. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 253 yards and 2 TDs. Chryst took over for Ryan Burns last year in late October and led Stanford to six straight wins, while throwing 10 TDs and just one INT. Stanford ranked 18th in scoring defense last year (20.4 PPG) and should once again be one of the better defenses in the country led by secondary of Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks. The Cardinal held Rice, which averaged 215 YPG passing in 2016, to just 95 passing yards. USC: Heisman Trophy candidate QB Sam Darnold threw for 289 yards on 23 of 33 but did not throw a TD pass and was intercepted twice. RB Ronald Jones II ran for 159 yards and three TDs, as the Trojans did present a balanced offense (289 passing yards and 232 rushing yards). The Trojans allowed 24.2 PPG last year (38th) but despite returning seven starters in 2017, allowed 31 points to Western Michigan. The pick: This is a possible preview of the 2017 Pac-12 title game. Stanford won three conference championships from 2012 to 2015 and last year 's 10-3 record marked Stanford's sixth season with 10-plus victories since 2010. USC entered 2017 as the Pac-12 favorite and Darnold as a Heisman-favorite. USC, after Darnold took over at QB, won its final nine games, capped by a thrilling 52-49 win over Penn St. in the Rose Bowl. This rivalry changed dramatically back in 2007, when Stanford, coached by Jim Harbaugh and a 41-point underdog at USC, pulled the shocking 24-23 upset. Stanford is 8-3 SU against USC since then, including three straight wins. However, USC's "close call" last week sets up as the perfect motivator for USC, which comes into this game having won 10 straight at home. This one will "make or break" USC's season. My bet says make USC a 10* play. |
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09-09-17 | Iowa -2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: In-state bragging rights are at stake as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit rival Iowa State in Ames for the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy series. Both teams are coming off wins in the opening weekend, with Iowa man-handling the Wyoming Cowboys and potential NFL first-round draft pick QB Josh Allen in a 24-3 defeat in Iowa City, while Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 42-24, although it wasn't as easy convincing as the final score would indicate. This will be the 65th meeting in the series, with Iowa holding a 42-22 all-time advantage. The Hawkeyes are 18-8 all-time in games played in Ames, including winning two straight at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa: The Hawkeyes won their first game on defense, holding a Wyoming team which averaged 35.9 PPG on 435 YPG to three points and 233 total yards. QB Allen completed 23 of 40 for just 174 yards with two INTs. Iowa QB Stanley was only 8 of 15 for 125 yards but threw three TDs, RB Wadley ran for 116 yards. Iowa State: Iowa State fell behind 7-0 in the 1st quarter against NIU but then twice intercepted Panther QB Dunne and returned each for TDs. Take away those two picks and the game was pretty even. Iowa State QB Jacob Park completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 271 yards with two TDs and one INT in last week's win. The running game had just 134 yards and the defense allowed 24 points on 378 yards (21 FDs). The pick: Iowa has won its last two visits to Ames and last year in Iowa City, dominated Iowa State in a 42-3 win. The 'gap' between the two schools has not changed that dramatically since then. The Hawkeyes' D is the difference in this one with a modest pointspread. Make Iowa an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 155 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots open up the 2017 NFL season Thursday at Gillette Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday night on NBC. The Pats were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS this preseason plus saw Julian Edelman go down with a season-ending injury. The Chiefs, coming off a 12-4 record in 2016 (won AFC West), were 2-2 SU & ATS this preseason. Kansas City: Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in KC (arrived in 2013), winning 11, 11 and 12 games in his postseason years, while missing in 2014 at 9-7. The offense will look similar to last year's unit with Alex Smith at QB (1st-round pick Pat Mahomes II is in the wings) plus WR Tyreek Hill doing a little bit of everything and TE Travis Kelce continuing to prove he's one of the best at his position in the NFL. RB Spencer Ware may be lost for the season (injured in Week 3 of the preseason) but a combination of Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller may work. The Chiefs own one of the best secondary’s in the league and in Reid's four season has allowed 19.1, 17.6, 17.9 and 19.4 PPG. New England: Sure, Edelman's loss hurts but hasn't Tom Brady consistently been great under almost all circumstances? The addition of deep-threat WR Brandin Cooks from the Saints plus a now-healthy Gronk will surely give him ample targets. Defensively, the Patriots allowed a league-low 250 points last year (15.6 per) and have three all-pros from a year ago in Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Dont'a Hightower. The pick: The Pats, including the postseason, were 16-3 ATS last season and enter 2017 having lost only four regular season home games since the 2014 season. However, the Chiefs have gone 12-7 ATS as underdogs under Reid plus open the 2017 on a six-game road winning streak from 2016. Take the points and make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays opened the 2017 season 2-11 and by the end of April, sat at 8-17. Toronto has never recovered from its poor start. The team which has appeared in each of the last two ALCS matchups beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Boston on Monday but through Labor Day, the Blue Jays are 64-74 (that's 56-57 since May 1). Toronto has fallen 13 games back in the AL East and while the deficit is about half of that in the wild card race (7 1/2 games back of the Twins), the Jays would have to first climb over SIX teams before challenging Minnesota for that second wild card spot. Boston's loss was its eighth time in 12 contests and saw the team's lead in the American League East shrink to 2 1/2 games over the Yankees, who just took three of four from the Red Sox. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-8 & 5.23 ERA) will start for Toronto and Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5 & 4.40 ERA) for Boston. Estrada has hardly been sharp in his last two starts (nine ERs allowed on 15 hits over 11 innings for a 7.36 ERA) but with the benefit of 21 runs of support, he's won them both to reach 7-8 on the season. He does own 156 strikeouts over 156 1/3 innings but he's also surrendered 26 homers in his 28 starts. Estrada is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 4-6). Rodriguez took the loss in each of his last two starts (allowed five runs in both outings) and is win-less in his last 10 outings with four defeats during that stretch (team is 3-7). Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in seven appearances (six starts / teams are 1-5) against Toronto. The pick: Toronto has all but been relegated to playing the spoiler role in September but that's just what the Jays did on Labor Day with 14 hits, including four HRs. Most of Boston’s problems have been on the mound in its current rough patch, as it has surrendered at least five runs in eight of the team's last 12 contests. Anyone truly expect Rodriguez to turn that roaund with his and 10 ERs allowed on 17 hits (three HRs) over 11 2/3 innings of his last two starts (7.71 ERA)? Note that Estrada has faced Boston twice in 2017 and while he's left with two no-decisions, he also owns a 1.74 ERA in those two starts. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. UCLA | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA was ranked 16th in the 2016 preseason poll and opened its season at College Station with a game against unranked Texas A&M. The Aggies came away with a 31-24 upset in OT (the Bruins were favored by 3 1/2 points), a win which jump-started A&M's season. Texas A&M would open 6-0, rising to No. 6 in the AP poll before losing 33-14 at No. 1 Alabama. A&M's season unraveled from there, finishing 8-5 after a 33-28 Texas Bowl loss to Kansas State. UCLA never recovered from its season-opening loss to A&M. Things went from bad to worse when starting QB Josh Rosen suffered shoulder and leg injuries at Arizona State in a 23-20 loss. He never returned to the field of play and UCLA would finish 4-8, its first losing season under Jim More (he had led UCLA to a 37-16 record from 2012-1015). UCLA and Texas A&M meet in a season opener for the second consecutive season on Sunday, this time at the Rose Bowl. Neither team is ranked and both will be looking for strong starts after poor finishes last season (the Aggies lost four of their final five games, while the Bruins dropped six of their last seven). Texas A&M: Former Aggies QB Trevor Knight is now trying to claim a roster spot with the NFL's Arizona Cardinals and the Aggies have yet to name a starting QB as Jake Hubenak, Nick Starkel, and Kellen Mond have continued to battle to earn the starting nod. A bigger loss is DE Myles Garrett, who was the NFL's overall No. 1 draft pick in April (Browns). He was a huge part in Rosen being pressure all game last season (Rosen was sacked five times and threw three INTs). Two key offensive performers do return, sophomore RB Trayveon Williams (1,057 yards 6.8 YPC and eight TDs) plus WR Christian Kirk for his junior year. He caught 83 passes last season (nine TDs), after making 80 receptions as a freshman. The defense returns seven starters but obviously can't replace Garrett. UCLA: Naturally, the return of Rosen is a key for the Bruins. Expect him to be eager to play well after last year's injuries preventing him from improving on his 3,670-yard, 23-TD effort as a freshman (he garnered Heisman Trophy conversation at this time last year). A MUST for UCLA will be improving a rushing attack which averaged a pathetic 84.2 YPG on 2.9 YPC to rank 127th in the nation. In Mora's first four years in LA, his Bruin teams had averaged about 194 YPG on the ground.. The pick: It would be easy to say UCLA here, based strictly on the revenge motive. However, Mora replaced some of his top offensive coaches after last year's disappointing campaign but lo and behold, Noel Mazzone (former OC at UCLA) and former backup QB Jerry Neuheisel, are both now employed by A&M. Kevin Sumlin opens his sixth season at A&M and he owns quite a record against non-SEC teams in his tenure, going 18-2 SU. I'll take any points available and make A&M a 10* play. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -135 | 124 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: It's safe to say that Saturday's showdown between preseason No. 3 Florida State and No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta (at Atlanta's new Mercedes-Benz Stadium) is the marquee matchup of the opening week of CFB 2017. To say the least, this is a special game, as it marks just the fourth-ever opener all-time of top-five opponents and the first-ever between top-three opponents. Alabama lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second TD in the College Football Playoff title game last January, bidding for a perfect 15-0 season and a second straight national championship. The Florida State Seminoles finished 10-3 last season, capped by an impressive 33-32 victory over Michigan in the Orange Bowl as a seven-point TD.
Florida State: The Seminoles will not have RB Dalvin Cook, who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings. However, QB Deondre Francois is back, after throwing for 3,350 yards and 20 TDs as a red-shirt freshman. Replacing Cook (FSU's all-time leading rusher) will not be easy but junior Jacques Patrick and freshman Cam Akers are talented. However, the OL needs to improve over last year’s bunch is FSU wants to be in the national title discussion. FSU's defense allowed 25.0 PPG last season, just the second time in the last seven years that an FSU defense had allowed more than 20 points. The good news is that nine regulars return on defense plus will have star safety Derwin James back at full strength after he played just two games in 2016 because of a knee injury. Alabama: The superlatives are endless when discussing the Crimson Tide, as Saban's team seeks its fifth national title in nine seasons. Alabama lost 11 players to the NFL draft. Jalen Hurts returns and is the first Tide QB to return since AJ McCarron in 2013. He accounted for 36 TDs last season, passing for 2,780 yards and rushing for 954. RBs Damien Harris (1,007 yards) and Bo Scarbrough (954 yards) both return but TE Howard and WR Stewart are both gone. The OL figures to be just as good in 2017. Sure the defense has lost seven starters to the NFL Draft (three in the first round) but no one doubts that the Tide will once again feature one of the nation's best defense units. The pick: The College Football Playoff will be decided this season in Atlanta's new Mercedes-Benz Stadium and it seems only fitting that the first college game at the $1.5 billion replacement for the Georgia Dome will likely help determine who is playing on Jan. 8. I won't ignore the fact that Alabama has won by 10 points or more in 40 of its last 45 regular season games but....These are the two winningest college programs since 2010 and FSU is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons. Make FSU an 8* play. |
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09-02-17 | Ball State v. Illinois -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 116 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ball State Cardinals will visit Memorial Stadium in Champaign-Urbana to take on the Fighting Illini of Illinois in Saturday college football action. The Illini are coming off a 3-9 season and last finished with a winning year back in 2011 (7-6). Ball State is off a 4-8 season and has won just 12 combined games the last three seasons, after going to back-to-back bowl games in 2012 (10-3) and 2013 (9-4). The two schools have met just once before, back in 2007 with Illinois winning 28-17 at home. Ball State: The Cardinals return eight starters, although Jack Milas is replacing Riley Neal as the starting QB. Milas has 314 career pass attempts but the bulk of those reps came during the 2014 season, as he attempted only 38 passes in 2016 ((Neal attempted 394 in 2016 but had just 13 TDs and 12 INTs). While Milas gets back in the swing of things, he can rely on RB James Gilbert, who had 1,220 yards last season (5.3 YPC) and 12 TDs. The defense has just four returning starters but maybe that's a good thing, after allowing 35.8 and 30.1 PPG the last two seasons. Illinois: Lovie's Smith first season at Illinois hardly went well, as the Illini were 3-9 (5-7 ATS) and just 2-7 in Big Ten play. There was a QB 'battle' in the spring and Smith has named inexperienced junior Chayce Crouch the starting QB. This year's offense can't be as bad as last year's, which averaged a woeful 19.7 PPG, getting held to 10 or less points four times last year. Crouch is more of a dual-threat and RB Kendrick Foster returns after rushing for 720 yards (5.7 YPC) and seven TDs. More will be expected from WRs Malik Turner and Sam Mays (especially Turner, who caught 46 balls with six TDs). Lovie must improve his defense, as the team allowed 31.9 PPG in Smith's first season, more than a TD higher than the 2015 unit did (23.9). The pick: This line opened has high as minus-11 in some places but it's down to about a TD as of Friday afternoon. Not sure what the attraction of Ball State is, as the Cardinals are on a 3-18 SU run in true road openers. What's more, Ball State is 3-26-1 SU vs. current Big Ten teams with all three of those wins coming against Indiana (how the little school from Muncie, Indian has loved upsetting the boys from Bloomington!). Meanwhile, Lovie needs a win here, as high-scoring and dangerous Western Ky is up next, before a road game at ranked USF. Note that Indiana has won 19 straight home openers and the average margin of victory has been almost four TDs (26 points)! Ball State is a team the Illini can handle. Make Illinois an 8* play. |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +27.5 | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Huskies will make the long cross-country trip to the East Coast on Friday night, where they will take on Rutgers in New Brunswick. Chris Peterson 'hit gold' in his third season at Seattle, leading the Huskies into the CFP, before they lost 24-7 to Alabama. Washington would finish 12-2 and has opened the 2017 season ranked No. 8 in the AP's preseason poll. Chris Ash, a key assistant under Urban Meyer at Ohio State, knew taking the Rutgers job wouldn’t be a 'walk in the park' but it's doubtful he anticipated the bottom falling out to the extent it did last season. Rutgers 2016 season opened with a 48-13 loss at Washington (Huskies led 48-3 into the fourth quarter) and after two home wins over Howard and New Mexico, Rutgers would go on to lose all nine games in Big Ten play to finish 2-10. I'm not sure Ash and Rutgers are all too happy to see Washington again, in the team's 2017 opener, even if it is in New Brunswick. Washington: The Huskies' defense allowed just 17.7 PPG in 2016 (on 316.1 YPG) but lost five starters to the NFL. CBs Kevin King (Packers) and Sidney Jones (Eagles) plus S Budda Baker (Cardinals) all went in the top-43. Clearly, the Husky secondary needs some rebuilding. Washington also lost speedy WR John Ross (81 catches and 17 TDs), as he was chosen ninth overall by the Bengals. However, the Huskies are still deep in proven play-makers. That starts will QB Jake Browning, who threw for 3430 yards with 43 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, helping the Huskies roll up a school-record 585 points (41.8 PPG on 456.9 YPG). RB Gaskin is off back-to-back 1300-yard rushing seasons. Ross is gone at WR but Dante Pettis and Chico McClatcher will keep Rutgers' secondary busy. Pettis is also an outstanding kick-returner, who has five career punt return TDs, one off the Pac-12 record held by California's DeSean Jackson. Rutgers: Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is the new OC at Rutgers and he gets a new QB in Louisville graduate Kyle Bolin and word is, he's fitting in well. Dangerous WR/KR Janarion Grant is back after missing the last eight games of last season with an ankle injury (when he went down, the Rutgers offense went 'south!'). Rutgers also owns a deep stable of RBs, the best of whom is Robert Martin. The defense was often over-matched last season (allowed 37.5 PPG and just over 450 YPG) but eight starters do return. With Kill on board to take over the offense, Ash (a DC under Meyer), will devote most of his energy on that defense. The pick: It should be noted that Rutgers' defense suffered as a result of the team's offensive ineptitude last season, being forced to stay on the field far too long and in terrible field position. With a much better QB situation and the return of play-maker Grant, that should change in 2017. Can it change enough to compete with a team like Washington? If the question is, will there be an upset, the answer is no. However, while Rutgers has virtually no chance of winning, staying within this HUGE number is more than realistic. Make Rutgers a 10* play. |
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09-01-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Mike Foltynewicz (10-10 & 4.84 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta up against the veteran John Lackey (10-10 & 4.98 ERA). Foltynewicz has been a nice surprise for the Braves in 2017 (more later), although he does limp in on a four-start losing streak. Foltynewicz has faced the Cubs just once, back in August of 2015, and it wasn't pretty. He was pounded for seven runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings at Chicago. Lackey returned from the break to go 5-0 in his first six starts (Cubs were 6-0) but he has struggled badly in his last two outings, allowing 10 ERs on 15 hits in just 10 innings (that's a 9.00 ERA). Lackey improved to 2-1 in five career starts (his teams are3-2) against the Braves on July 18, when he gave up one run on five hits in five innings at Atlanta. The pick: Lackey's last two outings have both been on the road, so he's hoping a return to Wrigley (he's allowed three runs or less in his last four home starts) will help him turn things around. He may, but I "have a feeling" with Foltynewicz. As noted above, he's on a four-start win-less streak but after allowing 20 runs on 25 hits and nine walks over 11 2/3 innings of three consecutive starts, he showed signs of breaking out of his funk Sunday, when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings in a 3-0 setback against Colorado. Foltynewicz has been "under the radar" all season, with Atlanta going 13-12 in his starts, giving him a plus-$495 moneyline mark which ranks 23rd among all starters. Take Atlanta and the 1 1/2 runs for an 8* play |
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08-31-17 | Ravens v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens are one of four NFL teams looking to complete a perfect 4-0 preseason, as they head to New Orleans off a 13-9 home win over Buffalo in Week 3 win that gave them a 3-0 SU & ATS record. The Saints are 2-1 SU & ATS, after a 13-0 home win over Houston last Saturday. Both teams are hoping to return to the playoffs in 2017, after going 8-8 (Baltimore) and 7-9 (New Orleans) in 2016. Baltimore: The Ravens are 3-0 despite the fact that Joe Flacco has not taken a snap in the preseason. Ryan Mallett led the team with 58 yards on 8 of 10 passing while Josh Woodrum completed 8 of his 13 pass attempts for 55 yards and a TD in last week's win. Flacco is dealing with a back injury and he and the rest of the starters will sit this one out. Backup QB Ryan Mallett and third-stringer Josh Woodrum will continue to handle duties under center on Thursday. New Orleans: Chase Daniel led the Saints with 108 yards on 9 of 12 passing while Drew Brees completed 11 of 15 for 76 yards in last week's win. It should be noted that with Drew Brees at the helm, New Orleans managed to score only three points while gaining 124 yards against Texans. The pick: In a rare twist, the Saints may actually play some starters in their fourth and final preseason contest. After all, RBs Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson have not taken the field yet and the offense looked flat in last Saturday’s date with Houston. With that in mind, I'm making the Saints a 10* play. |
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08-31-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers are 2-1 SU & ATS this preseason and play their final game Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte against the Carolina Panthers (also 2-1 SU & ATS). The Steelers advanced to last year's AFC championship game before losing to the Pats, while Carolina followed a 15-1 regular season and Super Bowl appearance in 2015, by laying an egg in 2016 with a 6-10 record. Pittsburgh: Most of Pittsburgh's starters will be rested in an effort to be ready for the team's regular season Week 1 visit to Cleveland (note: Browns are a surprising 3-0 this preseason) but that's not much of a change, considering the Steelers haven’t played their starters much anyway this preseason. Big Ben's backup, Landry Jones, is coming off a game in which he completed 21 of 31 passes and he’ll get majority of the snaps again, with rookie Joshua Dobbs (Tenn.) playing in the fourth quarter Carolina: Cam Newton didn't play all that much last week but the team seems convinced that he is ready to go. However, seeing some good production from backups Derek Anderson and Joe Webb would be a nice 'safety blanket.' Rookie RB Christian McCaffrey has had his moments this preseason and expect him to be a significant contributor to Carolina's offense in 2017. A bigger key could be the fact that Carolina’s patched up offensive line looks to be coming together. The pick: Carolina may go off as the biggest favorite here in Week 4 and I ask why? Pittsburgh has allowed just 14.7 PPG this preseason and Landry and Dobbs are a better QB duo in this contest than Anderson and Webb. Pittsburgh is the deeper team and that makes them an 8* play plus the points in this game. |
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08-31-17 | Buffalo +28 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 1729 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Bulls kick off their 2017 season with a road trip to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Head coach HC Lance Leipold led the Bulls to a 5-7 season in his first year at the school but the Bulls clearly regressed in 2016, falling to 2-10, which included a season-opening home loss to Albany (as a three-TD favorite!). It would seem that there is no way to go but up in 2017. Minnesota has been to five consecutive bowl games, after back-to-back 3-9 seasons in 2010 and 2011. P.J. Fleck, who worked a minor miracle at Western Michigan, represents a 180-degree turn from previous “old school” coaches Tracy Claeys and Jerry Kill in Minneapolis. Fleck now moves to a bigger stage with his “row the boat” attitude. Buffalo: Buffalo was terrible on both sides of the ball last season, ranking 126th in averaging 16.5 PPG, while allowing and 32.0 PPG. The good news is, 14 starters return (plus both kickers) but the Bulls do have a long way to go. QB Tyree Jackson returns and at 6-7, 245-lbs, he can be an imposing presence. It sure will help that four OL starters are also back. Eight starters return from LY's pourus defense. Is it a "glass half full" outlook or, “same-old, same-old?” Minnesota: Fleck used his ingenuity on the field and his youthful enthusiasm on the recruiting trail to raise the Broncos to new heights. As noted, Minnesota's been to five straight bowl games and last year's nine wins marks the second-most wins in a season since the school entered the Big 10 back in 1953 (the 2003 team went 10-3). This is NOT a "re-build." The first hurdle for Fleck will be finding an answer at QB. Will it be RS senior Conor Rhoda for one season, 6-5 RS soph QB Demry Croft, or juco Neil McLaurin for a few seasons, or one of five freshmen QBs for down the road? RBs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks combined for 1808 rushing yards and 21 TDs last season, the top two TEs are back and the left side of the OL is a wall with T Donnell Greene and G Garrison Wright. The Gophers ranked 22nd in points allowed (22.1 per) in 2016 but just five starers return. The key returnees are LBs Jonathan Celestin (2nd with 80 tackles LY) and Blake Cashman (led the team with 7½ sacks), plus safeties Duke McGhee and Antoine Winfield Jr. The pick: I'll note that Buffalo is on a 2-17 SU run in road openers, with seven straight losses by an average margin of 19 PPG. However, please note that the line is this contest opened with Buffalo about a four-TD favorite. Sure, Minnesota was 6-1 SU last season at home but note that the Gophers were 0-5 ATS as a home favorite against FBS opponents in 2016. Take those 'monster' points and make Buffalo a 10* play. |
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08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The final game of NFL preseason action goes Sunday night at US Bank Stadium, as the 1-1 San Francisco 49ers meet the 1-1 Minnesota Vikings. The Niners surprised the Chiefs 27-17 in KC in Week 1 but then lost badly at home in Week 2, 33-14 to the Broncos. Minnesota beat the Bills 17-10 in their opener but then fell to the Seahawks last Friday by a score of 20-13. That defeat was just Minnesota's second in 15 preseason game sunder head coach Mike Zimmer. San Francisco: The 49ers finished 2-14 last season and Chip Kelly was fired after just one season,replaced by Kyle Shanahan. Some notable signings in the off-season by the Niners concentrated on an offense which averaged only 19.3 PPG in 2016 (27th). Those signings included WR DeAndre Carter, WR Pierre Garcon, QB Brian Hoyer, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Aldrich Robinson and RB Tim Hightower. Brian Hoyer is taking over as the new starter with C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley fighting for the backup role. RB Carlos Hyde had a solid 2016 season, rushing for 988 rushing yards while averaging 4.6 YPC. Not sure what to make of the team's defense though, as the 49ers allowed 30.0 PPG in 2016, to rank dead-last in the NFL. Minnesota: The Vikings were an early season surprise in 2016, opening 5-0 but in the end the team finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. It was quite a collapse and it will be interesting to see how the team responds in 2017.Sam Bradford is the starting QB and Case Keenum was signed to backup Bradford until Teddy Bridgewater returns. A.P. is no longer around but it looks like FSU's Dalvin Cook (rushed for 1765 yards with Florida State in 2016), will be the starter. The offense must improve, after averaging 20.4 PPG (23rd). The Minnesota defense was very good in 2016, giving up an average of just 19.2 PPG (6th). The pick; I noted Minnesota's preseason record under Zimmer at the top but I'm not so sure we can expect more of teh same from the Vikings. Expect to see a heavy dose of first-team starters in this one on both sides and I want all the points I can get in this one. Make San Francisco a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Colts +6 v. Steelers | Top | 19-15 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts 0-2 (0-2 ATS) visit Heinz Field for a Week 3 preseason contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0 (2-0 ATS). Indianapolis is coming off a disappointing 8-8 season in 2016 which saw them finish third in the AFC South and the Colts, still playing without QB Andrew Luck, have scored a modest 29 points in their two losses. The Steelers won the AFC North with an 11-5 record in 2016 and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 36-17 to the Patriots. Pittsburgh opened the preseason with a 20-12 win at the NY Giants and followed with a 17-13 home win over the Falcons, the defending NFC champs. Indianapolis: Andrew Luck had shoulder surgery over eight months ago and while reports having him back to throwing the football, Jim Irsay told the Indianapolis Star that there is no guarantee that he will be back in time for the regular season. The Colts have scaled back the playbook for backup Scott Tolzien, who got the start and completed 10 of 14 passes for 70 yards and led his team to a FG in one of his five drives at the helm in last week's loss to the Cowboys. The Colts' lone TD came on a pass from Stephen Morris, who finished 11-for-15 for 111 yards and the score. The Indy D was terrible though, allowing 489 total yards (328 through the air)! Pittsburgh: The Steelers found themselves trailing the Atlanta Falcons 13-3 at halftime last week but rallied in the second half with two TDs to pull out the four-point comeback victory. Rookie QB Josh Dobbs (Tennessee ) got the start for the Steelers, completing 10 of his 19 passes for 70 yards and an interception. However, it was un-drafted free agent QB Bart Houston who would provide the winning touchdown pass. However, Pittsburgh's offense was able to generate just 189 total yards. The pick: Bell has still not reported but Big Ben should see extended playing time, after sitting out last week. Yes, the Steelers are a deep and well-coached unit (nothing new there) but I expect a good effort here from the Colts. Tomlin's an intense coach but after a 2-0 start, what's the big deal about beating the Luck-less 0-2 Colts? Surprise! Make the Colts a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State +2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 27-58 | Loss | -110 | 1604 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oregon State Beavers, coming off a 4-8 season, will play the Colorado State Rams (7-6 in 2016) at Fort Collins, in the Ram's new on-campus stadium (yet to be named). It's rare that a Pac-12 team visits a MWC school and this marks Oregon State's first-ever visit to Fort Collins, as the two schools meet for just the third time ever (last meeting was in Corvallis back in 1975!). Oregon State: The Beavers are off a 4-8 season but that was an improvement from the 2-10 record the school posted in head coach Gary Anderson's first year at Corvallis (2015). However, the former Utah State and Wisconsin head coach is feeling quite optimistic heading going into 2017. The Beavers finished their season with impressive wins against Arizona and Oregon. The season-ending win over the University of Oregon, which allowed OSU to finish ahead of the Ducks in the Pac-12 North, provided a singular, long-lasting pleasure in Corvallis, which has helped fuel this year's optimism. Utah State transfer QB Darell Garretson started the first six games of 2016 for the Beavers, going 2-4 SU in a mixed performance (50.0% with three TDs and four INTs), before suffering a fractured ankle. That forced Marcus Maryion into action, with the then-sophomore also going 2-4 SU, but with a much stronger arm. He completed 59.4% with 10 TDs and five INTs. He threw five TD passes in the win over Arizona and had one TD pass plus 81 yards rushing in the win over Oregon). That said, Jake Luton, a JUCO transfer, has been named the starter for opening day. Oregon State will rely heavily on RB Ryan Nall, who finished last season with 13 TDs and 951 rushing yards. To compete in the Pac-12, OSU will have to improve offensively, after averaging 26.2 PPG (105th in the nation). The defense has allowed more than 30.5 PPG (last year's average) in four consecutive seasons, as well as an average of about 440.0 YPG in that span, as well. Colorado State: The Rams have gone 7-6 in each of Mike Bobo's first two years at CSU, with both years ending in a bowl loss. The Rams finished the season strong winning four of their last five regular season games. The offense averaged 35.5 PPG on 462.5 (217.8 rushing and 244.7 passing). Dual threat QB Nick Stevens (64.2% with 19 TD passes) completed 75% in four straight games last year and accounted for five scores in 61-50 loss to Idaho in the Potato Bowl. WR Michael Gallup (76 catches for 1,272 receiving yards and 14 TDs) is Stevens' top weapon plus RBs Dalyn Dawkins (919 rush yards) and Izzy Matthews (734 yards & 13 TDs) are both back. The defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed 30.4 PPG (81st) on 419.2 YPG (69th). The pick: The Rams have won their last four home openers, as part of a current 20-3 run in home openers plus Oregon State visits Fort Collins looking to end a steak of 13 consecutive road losses. However, the modest pointspread alerts us to that fact that Oregon State is no longer a pushover. I'm a big fan of Gary Andersen and it was in his third year at Utah State that he got that program turned around. 2017 is his third year in Corvallis and I expect Oregon Sate to spring the minor upset, jump-staring what could be a 3-0 start for the Beavers in 2017 (home games with Portland St. and Minnesota are up next). Make OSU a 10* play. |
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08-24-17 | Panthers +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars are both 1-1 as the two teams get set to square off in this Week 3 meeting Thursday night at EverBank Field. As most know, Week 3 games are typically called "dress rehearsal" contests. However, Cam Newton has yet to dress for the first two games, as the Panthers are being extra cautious with his shoulder. As for the Jags, they couldn't generate any offense in their 12-8 loss to the Buccaneers last week, and after the game head coach Doug Marrone voiced his displeasure with Blake Bortles. It appears the Jags now have a battle brewing for the starting QB role in the last two weeks of the preseason. Carolina: Head coach Ron Rivera confirmed Tuesday that his star QB will take first snaps against the Jacksonville Jaguars, barring a setback with Newton's surgically repaired shoulder. That said, Newton is only expected to play about eight to 10 snaps against the Jaguars. So far, Derek Anderson (11 of 17 for 164 yards with one TD and one INT) and Joe Webb (12 of 20 for 195 yards with three TDs and one INT) have seen the most work. After a brief appearance by Newton, those two should be competing for the backup role. The Panthers have shown great promise on the offensive side, combining for 54 points in two games, despite no Newton. Jacksonville: Clearly, the Jags are becoming frustrated with Blake Bortles but do they have a Plan B? Chad Henne has had very little success in the NFL, posting 58:63 TD to INT ratio and 75.5 QB rating in his career to-date. As for Brandon Allen, he's in his second season (from Arkansas) and has yet to attempt an NFL regular season pass. The pick: The 'talk' is that moving on from Bortles would breathe life into the entire Jacksonville team from a confidence standpoint. However, I just don't see that considering the options Jacksonville currently has. After scoring 31 points in an upset of the Pats, the Jags 'laid an egg' with an eight-point effort vs. Tampa Bay. This hardly 'feels' like a team ready for a dress rehearsal. I'm making the Panthers a 10* play. |
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08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Monday Night Football on ESPN at FirstEnergy Stadium, as the 0-1 New York Giants and the 1-0 Cleveland Browns wrap up NFL Week 2 preseason action. The Giants ended a four-year playoff drought in 2016 by finishing 11-5 and earning wild card berth. However, the team's postseason hopes were dashed in a 38-13 loss at Green Bay. The postseason has eluded the Browns for 14 straight years, after they finished 1-15 in 2016. Cleveland has had 13 losing season in that span and hit rock bottom with last year's franchise-worst record. |
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08-20-17 | Falcons v. Steelers +3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Atlanta: Matt Ryan saw limited action last week but made the most of it, going 3 for 3 with 32 yards and a TD. RB Devonta Freeman caught that 15-yard TD pass from Ryan but had just one rushing attempt, as did the backfield partner, Tevin Colemn (the two combined for four rushing yards). Simms, who owns just 39 regular season pass attempts in his NFL career (none since 2014), saw the most action at QB (10 of 20 for 104 yards). The Atlanta D had two 'picks' but also allowed two TD passes in the fourth quarter of the three-point loss. Pittsburgh: The Steelers won 20-12 last week but made just 10 FDs and gained a pathetic 226 yards. Fourth-round pick Joshua Dobbs saw the bulk of the game action at QB, going 8 for 15 with 100 yards, a touchdown but also two INTs. Pittsburgh's D led the way to victory, coming up with seven sacks, two takeaways (1 INT & 1 fumble) but consistently were able to stall New York possessions, holding the Giants to four FGs. The pick: Neither team showed much on offense in their respective Week 1 games and it's expected that both teams' starters will not see significant action until the third game of the preseason. That leaves me with the better defensive team which is the Steelers. Make Pittsburgh |
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08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday features just one NFL preseason contest, the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. The Vikings are off a 17-10 Week 1 win at Buffalo, as the team improved to an almost hard to believe 13-1 record in preseason contests under Mike Zimmer. Meanwhile the Seahawks opened their 2017 preseason schedule with a 48-17 pasting over the now-LA Chargers last Sunday, ruining the Chargers "return to LA" (Chargers played the AFL's 1960 season in LA before moving to San Diego in 1961).
Minnesota: Staring QB Sam Bradford saw very little action in Week 1 (5 for 7 for 35 yards) as Case Keenum saw the bulk of the workload and completed 11 of 16 passes for 121 yards. Taylor Heinicke completed three passes and a touchdown but also threw an interception. A.P. is now in New Orleans and second round pick Dalvin Cook (FSU) had five carries for 13 yards but also caught 4 balls out of the backfield for 30 yards. The Minnesota defense was solid, allowing 309 yards of total offense and just 10 points. Minnesota's preseason record under Zimmer is mind-boggling but I'm backing Seattle in this one, after the team's outstanding Week 1 effort. I don't believe Minnesota can match Seattle's 'firepower.' Make the Seahawks a 10* play. |
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08-17-17 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +1 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-0 Edmonton Eskimos look to keep their perfect record intact when they visit the 5-2 Winnipeg Blue Bombers Thursday at Investors Group Field. QB Mike Reilly is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 2,329 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. He leads an offense which ranks first in YPG (429.3 per) and first in passing yards(332.7 YPG). The Eskimos average 29.1 PPG (3rd-best) but just one of the team's seven wins have come by more than seven points (an 11-point win), hence the team's mediocre 3-3-1 ATS mark. The defense allows 333.9 YPG to also rank third-best. Winnipeg is 5-2 SU & ATS and enters off three straight wins, scoring 41, 33 and 39 points, respectively. QB Matt Nichols completes 68.9 percent of his passes for 2,024 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. Winnipeg scored just 10 points in losing its second game of the season but has scored 33 points or more in its other six games. Defensively, the Blue Bombers allow 31.6 PPG (8th) on 402.1 YPG (7th). |
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08-17-17 | Bucs v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost 23-12 at Cincinnati last Friday and tonight will travel to play in Jacksonville against the Jaguars (on ESPN), who won 31-24 last Thursday in New England. The Buccaneers lost to the Bengals in their preseason opener after being outscored 17-3 in the second half. However, QB Jameis Winston looked sharp with nine completions on 13 attempts and WR Mike Evans had four receptions for 58 yards. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles had just five pass attempts in the upset of the Pats but backups Chad Henne and Brandon Allen combined for 224 passing yards and two TDs. RB Corey Grant stole the show with 120 rushing yards and one TD on just eight carries, while Leonard Fournette didn’t exactly impress with nine rushes for 31 yards and a one-yard TD run. Tampa Bay: The team's offensive starters are fine and will be even better once RB Doug Martin gets back on the field after his suspension. A worry here is that backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played poorly, completing 6 of 13 for just 45 yards and one INT. Don't expect to see much of Winston in this one (he'll get more time in Week 3), meaning inexperienced QBs like Griffin and Liufau may get extra reps, as it's possible Tampa Bay is questioning whether Fitzpatrick is the team's No. 2 QB. Jacksonville: The Jaguars have to be pleased with what they showed in their first preseason game. Yes, it's just an "exhibition game" but there could be a feeling of "building off beating the champs." The Jags did rack up 447 total yards in the game and that was with little or no contributions from the team's expected top-two offensive players, QB Bortles and first-round draft pick RB Leonard Fournette (LSU). The pick: I'm expecting Winston to see very little action and after the former Heisman Trophy-winner, Tampa Bay's QB rotation is troublesome. The Jags have a losing culture which needs to be turned a round and following an upset of the Pats in Foxboro, a win in front of the home fans (against an in-state rival like the Bucs), would be good 'medicine.' Make the Jags an 8* play. |
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08-13-17 | BC -2 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-2 BC Lions visit Mosaic Stadium on Sunday to take on the 2-4 Saskatchewan Roughriders. The BC Lions are unbeaten against all CFL teams not named Edmonton, which by the way is a perfect 7-0. Jonathon Jennings began the season as BC's No. 1 QB but was injured in Week 4. Veteran Travis Lulay took over and threw for 436 yards in that Week 4 contest. He's completing 73.7% of his passes and averaging 359.3 YPG while lead the Lions to 35.3 PPG. Defensively, BC is allowing 27.7 points and 397.3 yards per game. The Roughriders have split their last four games, including 30-15 at BC last week. Saskatchewan enters this contest 2-4. QB Kevin Glenn is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 1,784 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs. |
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08-12-17 | Titans v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 127 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Week 1 of the 2-017 NFL preseason continues with three games on Saturday, including the Titans visiting the Jets at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Tennessee is coming off a 9-7 season and while the Titans missed the playoffs for the eight consecutive year, it was Tennessee’s first winning season since 2011. Meanwhile, the Jets stumbled to a 5-11 record in 2016 (last-place in the AFC East) and missed the postseason for the sixth consecutive year. Tennessee: The Titans lost a few notable players in TE Anthony Fasano, G Chance Warmack and WR Kendall Wright but was also busy, signing SS Johnathan Cyprien, G Tim Belito and CB Logan Ryan, while retaining QB Matt Cassel and TE Phillip Supernaw. Tennessee went 3-1 in the preseason last year but stumbled out of the gate in the regular season, losing three of their first four games. However, the Titans recovered to win four of their final five to end up 9-7, tied with the Texans atop the AFC South (Houston won the tie-breaker). If QB Marcus Mariota (3426 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT plus 349 rushing yards and two TDs) been healthy in the final two games, things may have been different. If he can play all 16 games this season, the Titans are in good shape. The running game is in good hands with the tandem of DeMarco Murray (293 carries, 1287 yards, 4 TD, 53 catches, 377 yards, 3 TD) and Derrick Henry (110 carries, 490 yards, TD, 13 cathches, 137 yards). The Titans bolstered their receiving corps via the draft and free agency. In the draft, Tennessee picked WRs Corey Davis in the first round and Taywan Taylor in the third round plus added TE Jonnu Smith with a third round selection. Eric Decker was signed as a FA after the Jets cut him. NY Jets: Head coach Todd Bowles is back for his third year. The Jets were 3-5 at the midway point before losing six of their seven, before a meaningless Week 17 win over to finish 5-11. Gone are QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Brandon Marshall and WR Eric Decker, as well as longtime center Nick Mangold. Darrelle Revis, David Harris, Marcus Gilchrist and Calvin Pryor are gone from the defense. Bowles will oversee a rebuilding process this season but will he be around to see it completed? The QB position will be a three-way battle between grizzled veteran Josh McCown, former second-round pick Christian Hackenberg and former fourth-round pick Bryce Petty. The 'winner' joins aging Matt Forte (218 carries, 813 yards, 7 TD) and Bilal Powell (131 carries, 722 yards, 3 TD, 58 catches, 388 yards, 2 TD) in the backfield. When it comes to the receiving corps, the Jets feature a host of unproven ones. The pick: The Titans have a shot at the 2017 playoffs while the Jets are going nowhere. However, for this meaningless contest, I prefer the Jets who have a real QB 'battle,' while the Titans look forward to the opening of the regular season, as they can't afford to open by losing three of their first four, again. Make the Jets a 10* play. |
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08-11-17 | Bucs +2 v. Bengals | Top | 12-23 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Bengals host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 preseason action Friday night from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. The Buccaneers are viewed as a team on the rise by many with QB Jameis Winston entering his third season. The Bucs were 6-10 in Winston's rookie season but went 9-7 last year, ending a run of five consecutive losing seasons Cincinnati is led by QB Andy Dalton, coming off a season in which he threw for 4206 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs, although the Bengals missed the playoffs for the first tim e since 2010, going just 6-9-1. Tampa Bay was 2-2 in last year’s preseason, while Cincy posted a 1-3 record. Tampa Bay: Winston threw 28 TD passes in 2016 (up from 22) but his interception total also rose from 15 to 18 (The Bucs need to see that number fall not rise, in 2017). WR Mike Evans is blossoming into an elite pass-catcher, with receptions for 1,321 receiving yards and 12 TDs. DeSean Jackson joins as a FA plus the Bucs also added a few promising receivers in the draft. Tampa Bay’s featured RB Doug Martin will be suspended the first three weeks of the season meaning Jacquizz Rodgers could see a bulk of the carries to start the regular season (Rodgers is an able replacement). The Buccaneers averaged 22.1 PPG (19th) and allowed 23.1 PPG (15th). Both figures need to improve. Cincinnati: When healthy, A.J. Green is one of the NFL's top WRs. The Bengals have depth at RB in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill plus bolstered their running game by drafting the controversial Joe Mixon with their second round pick. Cincinnati's defense showed great improvement as the 2016 season progressed (finished eight overall in scoring D at 19.7 PPG). Has the Bengals' 'playoff window' closed? The offense must average more than the 20.3 PPG of last season (ranked 23rd). The pick: Like most preseason Week 1 games, we will see little from the respective No. 1 QBs for each team, Winston and Dalton. Tampa Bay's backup is veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is good at winning meaningless games. Meanwhile, A.J. McCarron has not played in a regular season game since 2015 plus third stringer Jeff Driskel wasn't much of a college QB. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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08-10-17 | Vikings v. Bills | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings had 'tongues wagging' by opening teh 2016 season 5-0 SU & ATS. However, after a Week 6 bye, the Vikings lost their mojo, losing four in a row SU & ATS. The team never recovered, losing eight of its final 11 games to finish teh season 8-8 (9-7 ATS). Minnesota is out to prove its hot start wasn’t a fluke and that the Vikings can challenge the Packers for the division title (we'll see). The Bills gave up on Rex Ryan and would finish 7-9, extending to 17 seasons, the NFL's longest playoff drought. The Bills have employed nine different head coaches during their playoff drought and I wish Sean McDermott "the best of luck," as he's been named the 20th head coach in team history. Minnesota: It’s a new era in Minnesota, as Adrian Peterson is no longer roaming the backfield. The Vikings will feature Jerick McKinnon, rookie Dalvin Cook, Bishop Sankey and Terrell Newby running behind fullback C.J. Ham. QB Sam Bradford completed 71.6 percent of his passes last season with 20 TDs and just five INTs but rarely threw downfield. That has to change. Buffalo: Tyrod Taylor is entering his third season as Buffalo’s starting QB and he has passed for more than 3,000 yards in each of the past two years and has 37 TD passes against just 12 interceptions during that span, yet most feel he isn't truly Buffalo's answer at the position. Buffalo was a force on the ground last season as LeSean McCoy had a bounce back season (1,267 yards / 5.4 YPC / 13 TDs) behind an excellent OL. However, the he oft-injured Sammy Watkins remains a big question mark at WR. The pick: Word is that he Vikings are doing the best they can to avoid preseason injuries but one can't ignore that they have played to win these relatively meaningless contests. Minnesota went undefeated in the preseason in 2016 and is 12-1 SU in its last 13 preseason outings dating back to 2013. Make the Vikings an 8* play. |
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08-05-17 | Saskatchewan v. BC -7 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The pick: The BC Lions have had no problems so far this season, except for going 0-2 vs.the Edmonton Eskimos. Then again, Edmonton stands at 6-0 on the season. BC played and beat Saskatchewan in each of the last two weeks of the 2016 season, outscoring the Roughriders by a combined score of 65-24! Saskatchewan has moved the ball and scored points at home here in 2017 (38.2 PPG in three contests) but has scored a total of just 26 points (13.0 per) in two road losses. Expect more road woes for the Roughriders in this one. Make BC a 10* play |
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08-03-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL is back in action for the first time since last February's thrilling Super Bowl, as the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals meet in Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game at Canton, Ohio. After cancelling this game last year due to poor playing conditions, the Pro Football Hall of Fame was determined not to let it happen again. The stadium was overhauled thanks to a $10 million donation from Tom Benson, owner of the New Orleans Saints and now the namesake of the Canton venue. The time frame for major renovations was limited and Kevin Shiplett, VP of Operations and Facilities at the Hall of Fame, joked: “It will be done, but just don’t brush up against any walls because the paint may be fresh.” There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms for Thursday evening in Canton, so weather could be a factor. Dallas: The Cowboys were the far superior team last year due to the emergence of rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. This dynamic duo led the Cowboys to 13 wins, their highest total since 2007, but as been the case for some time now, the Cowboys lost their first playoff game. Arizona: The Cardinals entered the 2016 season off back-to-back playoff appearances, including coming off a 13-3 regular season in 2015, which ended with an NFC championship game loss. However, at 7-8-1 in 2016, the team ended a run of three consecutive seasons of double-digit wins. The pick: As is custom in an early preseason game, you can expect to see a ton of unknowns on the field attempting to earn recognition from coaching staffs and carve out a spot on the final roster. Neither coach is expected to really care about the final score and will instead opt to get as many reps from as many guys on the fringe as possible. In particular, Arizona will be without two of three most impactful offensive players, as head coach Bruce Arians is electing to keep QB Carson Palmer and WR Larry Fitzgerald sidelined in order to keep their preseason workload light (don't expect to see too much of RB David Johnson, either). Both Arians and Dallas' Jason Garrett boast losing records during the preseason but Garrett has only a total of four wins in 13 attempts over the past four preseasons. Five of the last six Hall of Fame games have been low-scoring affairs, with only the Cowboys vs. the Miami Dolphins showdown in 2013 going over 40 points. Points will be at a premium in this contest, especially since these players have had extremely little time to prepare together as a team. I'm making Arizona a 10* play. |
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08-03-17 | Calgary -4.5 v. Toronto | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1-1 Calgary Stampeders visit the 3-3 Toronto Argonauts at BMO Field on Thursday. Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,832 yards with 10 TD passes and three interceptions. He leads an offense that ranks No. 1 in total yards (425.5 per) and is the CFL's highest scoring team (35.5 PPG). That goes perfectly with a defense that leads the CFL in allowing a modest 20.2 PPG. Toronto Argonauts averages 421.7 YPG (second) but yards haven't translated into points, as the Argonauts are averaging only 25.3 PPG (ranks 7th of 9 teams). QB Ricky Ray is completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 2,282 yards with nine TD passes and just three interceptions. Toronto is allowing 27.2 points and 361.3 yards per game. |
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07-29-17 | Hamilton +13.5 v. Calgary | Top | 1-60 | Loss | -115 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
The 0-4 (0-3-1 ATS) Hamilton Tiger-Cats will look for their first win of the 2017 season Saturday night at McMahon Stadium against the 3-1-1 (2-3 ATS) Calgary Stampeders. QB Zach Collaros is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,041 yards with three TD passes and four interceptions. Hamilton ranks 9th in passing yards and 8th in rushing yards, leaving them 9th overall at 310.2 YYPG, as well as being the league's lowest scoring team at 22.3 PPG. If the team's lack of offense weren't enough, Hamilton is allowing 35.2 points (8th) and 488.2 yards per game (9th). Calgary is a solid offensive team, ranking third in both poinst scored (30.6 per) and YPG (411.4). QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,635 yards with nine TDs and three interceptions. Calgary's defense allows just 24.0 PPG, second-best in the league. |
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07-24-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs’ took the rubber match of their three-game series with the Cards 5-3 last night on ESPN and have now won eight of nine since returning from the break. The team's starting pitching has been a big reason for Chicago's surge, with seven quality starts in those nine games, as Chicago starters own a 2.41 ERA. With the help of a Milwaukee slump (Brewers have lost seven of eight), the Cubs have moved into a tie with Brewers atop the NL Central. Anyone not see this coming? The Cubs now get set to play a home-and-home four-game series with their crosstown rivals the Chicago White Sox, who limp in on nine-game losing streak (0-8 since the break). The White Sox own the AL's worst record as the meet the Cubs at Wrigley Field Monday and Tuesday before heading back home to the South Side on Wednesday and Thursday. |
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07-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-2 Saskatchewan Roughriders will take on the 2-1-1 Calgary Stampeders Saturday at McMahon Stadium. The Roughriders are off their first win of the season (37-20 at home over Hamilton), after opening 0-2. Saskatchewan lost 17-16 at Montreal to start the season but QB Kevin Glenn has thrown for 728 yards and six TDs the last two games, leading the Roughriders to 40 points (lost by three in OT) and 37 (17-point win). The Saskatchewan defense has allowed 326.0 YPG (first) but 26.7 PPG, which ranks fifth. Calgary is 2-1-1, having played three of their first four away from home. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,382 yards with seven TD passes and just two INTs in 163 pass attempts. Calgary allows more than 90 YPG than Saskatchewan (419 to 326) but about the same amount of points, 27.5 per to 26.7. |
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07-20-17 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a four-game home series with the NY Yankees having won six of their last seven games to reach the .500 mark (48-48). Seattle now sits just 1 1/2 games behind the 48-45 Yankees, who currently hold down the second wild-card spot. The Mariners completed a 5-1 road trip with a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros on Wednesday and now have their next 10 contests scheduled for Safeco Field. New York lost to Minnesota 6-1 on Wednesday, one day after acquiring third baseman Todd Frazier (0-for-1, hit by pitch) and relievers David Robertson (didn't pitch) and Tommy Kahnle (one scoreless inning) from the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees are counting on this trade to kick-start a winning streak, as since mid-June, the Yankees have been in a funk (10-22 their last 32 games). |
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07-19-17 | Montreal v. Ottawa -4.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-2 Montreal Alouettes will play the 0-3-1 Ottawa Redblacks Wednesday night at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa. Montreal has played three of its first four at home, losing its lone road game 23-19 at Edmonton (note: Eskimos are 3-0 to start the 2017 season). QB Darian Durant is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 940 yards with four TD passes and four INTs but is somewhat helped by the league's top rushing attack (109.2 YPG). The bigger help is a Montreal defense allowing a league-best 21.2 PPG. The Redblacks are still looking for their first win of the season after a 0-3-1 start. QB Trevor Harris is completing 71.5 percent of his passes for 1,379 yards with eight TD passes and just two INTs. He leads an offense which has played well, averaging 29.0 PPG (4th-best). However, Ottawa's defense has allowed the most points (123) in the league and its 30.8 PPG average ranks 7th of nine teams, ahead of two teams that have played just three games. The pick: The Alouettes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games but Ottawa has won five of the last six meetings against Montreal. Yes, Ottawa is win-less but along with a 31-31 tie, the three losses have come by 4, 1 and 2 points! The Redblacks aren't nearly as bad as their record and are, as the saying goes, "due!" Maybe, overdue? Make Ottawa an 8* play. |
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07-14-17 | Ottawa +6 v. Edmonton | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
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07-13-17 | Toronto +3 v. Winnipeg | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Toronto Argonauts and 1-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Thursday at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. Toronto QB Ricky Ray has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 1,199 yards with four TDs and just one interception. He may have had just one TD pass in last week's home win over Hamilton but he threw for 506 yards and did not throw an INT in 41 pass attempts, while leading the Argos to 32 points. The defense was excellent, holding the Tiger-Cats to 15 points on 258 yards with just 12 FDs. Toronto is allowing 22.7 points and 361 YPG after three games (more on that later). Winnipeg opened with a 43-40 OT win at Saskatchewan but then returned home to lose 29-10 to Calgary. QB Matt Nichols threw for 331 yards with four TDs and just one INT in beating the Roughriders but was not nearly as good against Calgary, with two INTs and one TD pass, while leading the Blue Bombers to just 10 points! |
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07-08-17 | Hamilton +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet Saturday in CFL action at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan. Both teams are looking for their first win of 2017, as Hamilton has opened 0-1 and Saskatchewan 0-2. The Tiger-Cats lost 32-15 at Toronto in Week 1 and took last week off. Zach Collaros won the starting QB job but threw for a modest 242 yards in Week 1, without a TD pass and one INT. Running games are not the most important aspect of any CFL team but Hamilton will need to improve on its 16 yard rushing effort against the Argonauts! It's been "close but no cigar" for the Roughriders to open the 2017 season. They lost 17-16 at Montreal in Week 1, then lost 43-40 (in OT) at home to Winnipeg in Week 2. QB Kevin Glenn is completing 72 percent of his passes for 675 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. The running game has averaged 61.5 yards per contest. The defense played well in Week 1 but then allowed 43 points on 430 yards in Week 2 (team also allowed 261 return yards). |
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07-07-17 | Calgary -3 v. Winnipeg | Top | 29-10 | Win | 100 | 82 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Calgary Stampeders and Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Friday in CFL action at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. The Stampeders have opened the 2017 season with back-to-back games against Ottawa, winning 43-39 at home in Week 1 and then playing to a 31-31 tie in Week 2 at Ottawa. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 671 yards and is off to a great start with seven TD passes without an INT (he has 37 TD passes over his last 19 games). However, Calgary's defense is not off to a good start, allowing 35 points and 461 yards per game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers didn't play in Week 1 but were able to outlast the Saskatchewan Roughriders 43-40 in double overtime last week on the road. QB Matt Nichols is off to a strong start, completing 63.9 percent of his passes last week for 331 yards with four TDs and just one interception. |
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07-01-17 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +1 | Top | 43-40 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The CFL's second week concludes Saturday night when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan. The Blue Bombers will be making their 2017 debut in this game, after finishing 11-7 last year and losing in the West semifinals. Matt Nichols returns at QB after throwing for a modest 18 TDs last season. The Blue Bombers averaged 27.6 PPG but allowed 25.2 PPG, so it's no surprise the team was 10-8 ATS. The Roughriders are looking to even their 2017 record at 1-1, after losing 17-16 in Week 1 to the Montreal Alouettes. QB Kevin Glenn completed 70.5 percent of his passes against Montreal for 298 yards (one TD and one INT) but the offense produced just 16 points. The pick: Winnipeg won seven of nine road games last season (also 7-2 ATS) and then lost (but covered) in a 32-31 loss at BC in the playoffs. Does that mean the Blue Bombers are the play? Not so fast. The Roughriders have a game under their belts (it's Winnipeg's first game since November of 2016) and the team's "D" put forth an excellent effort. Montreal was held to just 17 points on 16 FDs at home. In a near pick'em contest, I'll make the home team an 8* play. |
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06-30-17 | Montreal +8.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 82 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Montreal Alouettes eked out a 17-16 win in Week 1 at Saskatchewan, while the Edmonton Eskimos edged the BC Lions 30-27 on the road. The two teams meet Friday at the Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton. Montreal QB Darian Durant passed for 233 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Edmonton QB Mike Reilly tortured opposing defenses in 2016 with 5,554 passing yards, as well as finishing second in the league in both TD passes (28) and rushing TDs (9). He passed for 315 yards, two TDs and zero INTs in the three-point win over the Lions. |
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06-30-17 | BC +1 v. Toronto | Top | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 79 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The BC Lions and Toronto Argonauts meet Friday at the BMO Field in Toronto. The Lions lost 30-27 at home in Week 1 to Edmonton and look for their first victory of the season, tonight. The Lions scored 27 points last week but QB Jonathon Jennings didn't have a TD pass (no INTs, either), while passing for a modest 264 yards. Toronto opened with an easy 32-15 win over Hamilton and while QB Ricky Ray had just one TD pass, he didn't throw an INT, completed 78 percent of his passes and threw for 506 yards! |
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06-25-17 | Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 15-32 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Toronto Argonauts meet Sunday in CFL action at the BMO Field in Toronto. The Tiger-Cats are hoping for a better season in 2017, after finishing 7-11 last year and then losing 24-21 to Edmonton in the East Semifinal. Hamilton has possibly the best 1-2 QB punch in the league with Zach Collaros and Jeremiah Masoli both playing well last season and proving they can lead the team. However, it looks as if Collaros will be the go-to guy this year now that he's finally healthy. Toronto has nowhere to go but up after finishing with a CFL-worst 5-13 record (Saskatchewan was also 5-13). The Argonauts scored only 383 points last year (21.3), with only Saskatchewan scoring less (350 points). On defense, no team allowed more points than Toronto's 568 (31.6 per). If Ricky Ray stays healthy, Toronto's offense will be in good hands. However, while Ray has more than 54,000 career passing yards, he has played just 12 games the last two years. The fact that the Argonauts lost their top-two receivers from a year ago is also a concern, even though Ray is healthy to open the 2017 season. |
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06-22-17 | Saskatchewan +7 v. Montreal | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Saskatchewan Roughriders (West Division) ended last year with losses in their last three games and finished 5-13. However, they were a much more respectable 9-9 ATS. That said, the Roughriders pretty much have nowhere to go but up. They allowed 530 points (only the East's Toronto allowed more in giving up 568) and no team in the CFL scored fewer points than Saskatchewan's 350. QB Darian Durant, who is a two-time Grey Cup champion, is gone and finding a new starting QB among Kevin Glenn, Brandon Bridge or Marquise Williams will be a priority. The Roughriders open their season in Montreal tonight, against the Alouettes. Montreal plays in the East and despite winning their final three games finished 7-11 last year, a season in which none of the four teams in the East were able to finish with a winning record. Durant, who threw for more than 3,800 yards last season, is now Montreal's starting QB. I'm sure he'd love to have a big game against the ex-teammates. The pick: It's no surprise that the West is the much tougher division (four of the West's five teams topped .500, with only Saskatchewan under. 500) and Saskatchewan went 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games, overall (4-1 ATS in their last five road games). Having a consistent and reliable QB such as Durant makes Montreal a better team in 2017 but I have no interest in laying points (about a TD) with a team which is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. Make Saskatchewan a 10* play. |
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06-21-17 | Tigers +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -180 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Kyle Seager's game-winning RBI double in the 10th gave Seattle a 5-4 over Detroit last night, following Monday's 6-2 triumph. It was the Mariners' third straight win and the team which opened the 2017 at 2-8 is now 36-37. However, playing in the AL West with Houston, Seattle finds itself 12 1/2 games out of first. There is good news though, as Seattle is part of a log-jam for the No. 2 wild card spot, as eight teams are within two games of that final playoff spot. Detroit is sinking with four straight defeats and nine in 12 games, falling to 32-38. There are two games left in this series and word is, Detroit manager Brad Ausmus' seat is getting pretty 'hot.' The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander (4-4 & 4.50 ERA) gets the start for Detroit and James Paxton (5-2 & 3.23 ERA) for Seattle. One of Verlander's top outings of the 2017 season was a no-decision against the Mariners on April 27, when he allowed an unearned run and five hits over seven innings. However, Verlander is win-less in five starts since defeating Texas back on May 20, going 0-1 (team is 2-3). Verlander is 10-8 with a 3.09 ERA in 21 career starts against Seattle (Tigers are 11-10). Paxton posted a 1.69 ERA through his first eight starts (he was 5-0 but Seattle 5-3) but he's allowed 11 runs on 15 hits over just 7 2/3 innings in the consecutive poor starts, posting a 12.91 ERA. Paxton struck out nine and gave up four hits in seven scoreless innings to defeat Detroit 8-0 back on April 26 and is now 2-1 with a 2.80 ERA in four career starts against the Tigers (team is 2-2). The pick: Seattle has been waiting for Paxton to deliver on his potential and a strong start to 2017 suggested, this would be the year. However, one has to show some concern after two brutal outings. As for Veralnder, he may be win-less his last five starts but over his last four starts, he owns a respectable 3.43 ERA. I'm taking the 1 1/2 runs and making the Tigers a 6* play. |
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06-15-17 | Mariners +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -195 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners have scored a total of 27 runs in winning two of the first three games of this four-game series against the Twins. Seattle's offense has been consistently good for awhile now, as the team has scored five or more runs in 11 of its last 12 victories and caps this series Thursday afternoon in Minnesota having won 12 of its last 17. The team's 2-8 start to 2017 seems behind them and a win here gets them to .500 (Seattle sits 33-34). The Twins also have scored 27 runs in the first three games of this series but 20 of them came in Tuesday's victory, when they recorded a franchise-record 28 hits. Minnesota scored just three and four runs in the two losses and now are only 13-20 at Target Field in 2017. However, Minnesota's 20-9 road record leaves them 33-29 on te season, good enough for a two-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central race for first place. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 130 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The same two teams (Cavs & Warriors) meet in the NBA Finals for the third straight year, something that's never happened before. With Steve Kerr's health issues, the Warriors are led by Mike Brown, who formerly coached LBJ and the Cavs from 2005-2010. Brown (and of course, LBJ) led the Cavs to the Finals in 2009 (got swept by the Spurs), in just his second year with the team and then to 66 wins and 61 wins in his final two seasons. He was fired and coached the Lakers for two years before returning to Cleveland for the 2013-14 seas onbut LBJ was in Miami by then. The Cavs won just 33 games and Brown was fired again, Circumstances have Brown now facing off against his ex-team and head coach Tyronn Lue, making it the first time two black head coaches have faced each other in an NBA Finals since 1975 (Al Attles and KC Jones!). Golden State: Curry's been the Warriors' best player this postseason, averaging 28.6-5.5-5.6. Durant has fought through some minor injury issues (he missed two games) to average 25.2 & 7.8, while Green has been a major force, averaging 13.9-7.8-7.2 and playing shut-down defense. Lagging behind this postseason has been the fourth member of this "team of All Stars," Klay Thompson, who after averaging 22.3 PPG (on 46.8% shooting) during the season, has averaged 14.4 PPG on 38.3% shooting. However, Thompson is an outstanding defender and his defense (along with Green's) could easily be a key to this series. The pick: The Warriors haven't lived down the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in last season's Finals and with the addition of Durant, are a better team this season than last. I noted at the top that these Finals feature the best of each conference but considering the West (in Golden St, SA & Hou) owned the three-best regular season records and Cleveland actually won fewer games than Boston in the East, one could argue that the Warriors are clearly the superior team (won 16 more games, 67-to-51) and deserve to be a solid favorite. There's no doubt that LBJ will be primed for the challenge but remember, Curry has a lot to prove as well, as does Durant. Curry under-performed when the Warriors won in 2015 and last year was downright bad in The Finals. As for Durant, if after joining the Warriors to form this "Super Team," what's his excuse if the Warriors don't win? I always try to avoid picking a series winner (my job is to pick the series game-by-game and here's a tid-bit that has me on Golden St. Like most, I feel the East has nowhere near the overall talent of the West and the last NINE times an Eastern Conference team has opened an NBA Finals on the road, it has gone 0-9 SU & ATS! Make the Warriors a 10* play. |
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06-01-17 | A's +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The A's snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory Wednesday night in Cleveland. However, it marked just the team's eighth road win of the 2017 season Oakland is 8-19 on the road and 23-29 overall, already 14 games back of Houston in the AL West (Astros own MLB's best record at 38-16). The A's will wrap up a seven-game road trip Thursday afternoon against the Cleveland Indians, who are 27-24 and in a virtual tie with the 26-23 Twins for first in the AL Central. However, Cleveland has struggled at home so far in 2017, going just 11-14 (Indians were 53-28 at home in 2016, plus-$1230 vs.the moneyline). |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: It wasn't a cakewalk but the Cavs won Game 4 against the Celtics, 112-99. The Celtics actually led by 10 points at the half but Cleveland shot 71 percent in the second half to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference finals. Kyrie scored a playoff career-high 42 points, LBJ overcame four fouls in the first half to add 34 points and Love produced his fourth consecutive double-double with 17 & 17. The Celtics now need to win at home, where they lost the first two games of this series by an average of 28.5 points, to stay alive. "We're humble enough to know that we haven't played well at home, and we want to give our home crowd a better outing than we did the past two games," forward Jae Crowder told reporters. "We're right there where we want to be, we're locked in." Cleveland: Irving tweaked an ankle in Game 4 but he didn't seem to be the least bit affected, scoring 33 of his points during an impressive 19-minute stretch. LBJ overcame early foul trouble to make 15-of-27 shots after suffering through a poor Game 3 in which he scored only 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting. As noted, Love's been brilliant, averaging 24.5 & 12.8 through four games. However, an area of concern for Cleveland has to be the fact that its bench has contributed just nine (Game 3) and seven (Game 4) points! Boston: Game 3 hero Marcus Smart (27 points) returned to earth with a thud in Game 4, going 1 of 9 for eight points. Olynyk got the Game 4 start and had 15 points. He had 15 off the bench in Game 3, after scoring just two total points in the first two games! Crowder battled through a groin injury in Game 4 and produced 18 points and eight rebounds. He is averaging 15.5 points and 7.8 rebounds in the series. Thomas is done for the year and winning three straight is not a realistic hope for Boston. The pick: However, the Celtics recovered from a 21-point deficit to win Game 3 in Cleveland and incredibly, had the Cavs in a 16-point hole in the second quarter of Game 4, a contest in which almost all thought the Cavs would dominate. Cleveland head coach is warning his team about looking ahead to the Warriors. "(The Celtics are), like I told you guys before, it's like we're preparing for a whole new team. Like, we didn't know what they were going to run. Isaiah (Thomas) goes down and they're running a totally different offense than we prepared for so it's been tough on us. And defensively, they're a lot better. They don't have a lot of weak links to go to, to go at." The Celtics pulled off the improbable comeback upset in Game 3 and are more than capable of at worst, taking the Cavs to the wire in this one. Take the points and make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +17 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have had their way with the Celtics in both games in Boston, winning 117-104 (wasn't as close as the final) and 130-86 (it was as bad as the score indicates). They now return home and look (expect?) to take a 3-0 series lead when they host the Celtics in Sunday's Eastern Conference finals' matchup. Things have gone from bad to worse for Boston since that Game 2 blowout, as PG Isaiah Thomas (hip) has been ruled out for the rest of the postseason. |
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05-18-17 | Reds +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs likely knew that after winning the team's first World Series in 2017, after a 108-year drought, that repeating would be no walk in the park. However, the Cubs surely didn't expect to be only 20-19 as they got set to play their 40th game of a 162-game schedule. The Cubs have overpowered the Reds in the first two games of this series, outscoring them 16-10 to improve to 4-1 against their National League Central rivals this season. The Reds have now lost five in a row to fall below .500 (19-20) and will try to avoid a sweep this afternoon against the Cubs, who hope to complete their first series sweep of the 2017 season. |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have rolled to eight straight wins this postseason, averaging 114.5 PPG. After failing to cover their first two games against the Pacers, the Cavs are 5-0-1 or 6-0 ATS their last six. In fact, Cleveland has now won 11 straight playoff games since being down 3-1 against the Warriors in last year's Finals, going 8-2-1 or 9-2 ATS with some guy LeBron averaging 34.9-9.7-7.8. Boston was considered the weakest No. 1 seed in a long time (maybe ever, since the league went to a 16-team playoff format) and right away, lost its first two home games in the first round, against the 41-41 Bulls (No. 8 seed). However, Rondo's injury gave the Celtics 'life' and they won and covered the final four games of that first-round series. Against Washington, the home team won all seven games (6-1 ATS) and Boston now draws the defending champs but has the homecourt edge. Cleveland: The Cavaliers haven't played since May 7 and hope to continue to ride the red-hot duo of forward LeBron James (34.4-9.0-7.1) and PG Kyrie Irving (23.8 & 5.8 APG) as they look to shake off the rust. Head coach Tyronn Lue says he hopes to get PF Kevin Love more involved in this series after he averaged just 13.8 points and 9.1 rebounds during the first two rounds. Love did averaged 23.7 points and 13 rebounds in three games against the Celtics this season (Cavs took three of the four). However, the Cavs may need more help from outside of their "Big Three," as Channing Frye is the fourth-best scorer at 8.8 PPG this postseason for Cleveland. Boston: The Celtics just survived a tough seven-game series against the Wizards to reach the conference finals for the first time since 2012. That series just ended Monday and now it's the defending champs on one days' rest. Boston knows it will be a huge underdog in this series. "We gotta get ready for the defending champs, we know that," PG Isaiah Thomas said after Monday's game. "The good thing about it is we've got homecourt advantage, so we're going to be ready on Wednesday to try to take care of home court. We know it's going to be tough but at this point, anything can happen, we really believe that." Thomas has carried Boston through most of the playoffs in an inspiring manner, averaging 25.4 PPG and APG this postseason. He had 29 points, 12 assists and just two turnovers in the Game 7 win over the Wizards and has had four 30-point outings (including 52 in Game 2 vs. Washington). Kelly Olynyk established a playoff career-best with 26 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the Game 7 win over the Wizards but the unsung Horford is also having a very good postseason, averaging 16.1-7.5-5.8 while shooting 64.0 percent. The pick: It's hard for most to ignore the Cavs going into Boston late this regular season (on April 5) and just 'toying' with the Celtics. LBJ had 36-10-6 in a 114-91 Cleveland win. However, let's not forget that the Warriors found themselves down 23 points in the third quarter of their Game 1 against the Spurs after a long rest and that game was in Oakland! I'm going to take the home dog and make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the four second round series ended in four-game sweeps (Cavs and Warriors) while the Spurs took out the Rockets in six games, but this Washington/Boston series will need all seven games to be decided. That should come as no surprise as the home team won all four matchups during the regular season and through six games of this playoff series, has come out on top each time. The first five games saw the home team also cover but then in Game 6, the Wizards eked out a 92-91 win over the Celtics. Boston squandered a five-point lead in the final minute of Game 6, saw John Wall nail a three-pointer with 3.5 seconds left on the clock to give Washington the lead and then got victimized by some fuzzy clock management in the final seconds of the contest. After Wall's three-pointer, Kelly Oubre Jr. used Washington's foul to give with 2.7 seconds remaining, according to the NBA's Last Two Minute report,but Boston only got 1.7 seconds left on its final chance as Isaiah Thomas heaved up a three-point attempt that missed the mark. On to Game 7. Washington: Wall is averaging 26.3 points and 10.2 assists in the series and combines with Bradley Beal to form a backcourt that is not afraid to take the big shots. Beal scored a series-best 33 points in Friday's win but is still trying to find his shot from long range while shooting 26.3 percent from beyond the arc in the series. Washington's frontcourt continues to give uneven efforts. Gortat has rebounded well all series (11.7 per) but in the last three games, has scored a total of just 17 points. SF Otto Porter Jr. averaged 15.8 points on 60 percent shooting in the first five games of the series but went scoreless on 0-of-5 shooting in Game 6. PF Morris was a "no-show" in Games 1 and 5 (both Boston home wins) but in Washington's three home games (all wins), he's averaged 14.0 & 8.7. Sixth man Bogdanovich has shot erratically, scoring 32 points in Games 3 and 4 (on 11 of 19 shooting) but averaging just 5.0 PPG in the other four games on 6 of 20 shooting. Boston: Isaiah Thomas is not complaining about Monday's situation. "To have Game 7 back in Boston in the Garden," Thomas told reporters after the game 6 loss. "If you had said that back in October, that there'd be a Game 7 in the second round, a lot of people probably wouldn't even believe that. So we're excited. I mean, it hurts right now because we just lost. We have nothing to hold our heads down about, we're going to take a few days to figure out our adjustments and win Game 7."Thomas had 33 points in Game 1 and then exploded for 53 points in Game 2. However, he is averaging just 19.3 points on 39 percent shooting in the four games since. Then again, Thomas is getting plenty of help the last two games from SG Avery Bradley, who followed up a playoff career-high 29 points in Game 5 with 27 in Game 6 and is 22-of-37 from the floor in that span. Center Al Horford was in line to be the "hero" in Game 6 (his 'bank' shot gave Boston a two-point lead with 10 seconds left) but Wall's three-point shot ruined that scenario. Still, Horford has been very good for Boston this postseason, averaging 16.2-7.6-5.8 while shooting 64.2% from the floor. The pick: It's another Game 7 at the legendary Boston Garden (now the TD Garden) and the Celtics sure have history behind them (Celtics are 18-3 all-time at home in Game 7s). However, all those banners in the rafters won't help this team, which has no connection to the past. Washington's history doesn't bode well, as the Wizards will be trying to reach the conference finals for the first time since 1979,. Forget ancient history, just look at this season. The home team has won all 11 meetings between the two teams and over the first 10 (prior to Game 6), the home team had covered each time. Stick with the home team here and make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-15-17 | Senators +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Were the defending Stanley Cup champs a little flat in Game 1 against Ottawa, after taking out the Presidents' Trophy-winning Caps in seven games? Flat or not, Pittsburgh fell to Ottawa in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals by the score of 2-1 in OT. Bobby Ryan set up Jean-Gabriel Pageau for the series-opening goal and then Pageau returned the favor on the Ryans overtime game-winner at 4:59 of OT. Ottawa is now 5-2 on the road this postseason. While Pittsburgh saw Evgeni Malkin register his league-leading 19th playoff point with his third-period goal, head coach Mike Sullivan insisted his team needs to generate more shots after mustering only 17 at even strength in the series opener. Ottawa: Ryan had been taken to task for a career-worst regular-season point total of 25 (13 goals, 12 assists) but has erupted for 11 points (five goals, six assists) in the playoffs, with nine of them (four goals, five assists and three game-winning tallies) coming in seven road games. Pageau scored only 12 goals while playing in all 82 regular-season games but has a team-leading eight postseason goals, with seven coming in the last six contests! Craig Anderson stopped 27 of 28 shots in Saturday's Game 1 and is now 9-4 witha 2.37 GAA and .917 SP this postseason. Pittsburgh: Captain Sidney Crosby ia as about as even keel as they come and commented bout the Game 1 loss saying, "There were some good looks there. They're not going to give you anything but we worked hard to get our chances and we've got to bury them whean we get them." The Penguins won 17-of-23 faceoffs in the third period of the series opener but was only able to tie the score. More troubling is the fact that Pittsburgh came up empty on five chances on the power play, extending its rut to 0-for-10 in the last three contests. Crosby only had two shots in 23:32 of ice time. The pick: Yes, Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Game 2 of a series dating back to last season's playoff run but as I noted in taking the Senators in Game 1, this team just keeps playing one-goal games. Ottawa's 2-1 OT win in Game 1 makes it 10 one-goal games in the Senators' 13 playoff games, so far. Ottawa has six wins in the extra session, pushing the club one shy of matching the 2002 Carolina Hurricanes and 2003 Anaheim Ducks and four behind the 1993 Montreal Canadiens for most during a playoff season.Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Senators a 10* play. |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs owned the second-best record West at 61-21 (and in the entire NBA, as well) and will meet the No. 1 seed Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference finals starting this afternoon in Oakland. The Warriors went 67-15 during the regular season and have won all eight playoff games, outscoring opponents on average, 115.3-to-98.8 PPG. After rolling over Portland and Utah in the first two rounds, the Warriors also have the advantage of being well-rested, with an entire week off between series. Conversely, the Spurs didn't have an easy time in either of their series, as they were tied at two-all against both the Grizzlies and the Rockets, before winning both Game 5s at home and then their respective Games 6's as well, at Memphis and Houston. San Antonio: Kawhi Leonard is nursing a sprained left ankle that kept him out of the clinching Game 6 win over the Houston Rockets on Thursday but the good news for the Spurs is that Leonard will have had a full four days off before Sunday's opener. He is expected to play against Golden State today. Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge took a more prominent role in Leonard's absence in Game 6 at Houston. He produced his best performance of the postseason with 34 points and 12 rebounds, well above his average 16.8 points and 8.0 rebounds this postseason. PG Tony Parker (quadriceps tendon) is out for the rest of the playoffs and the Spurs will likely start Patty Mills, with rookie Murray also seeing increased "PT." Also, SG Jonathan Simmons averaged 13.2 points against the Rockets, after averaging only 3.6 in the first round against Memphis. Golden State:Golden Curry (27.1) and Durant (23.3) have played very well so far, although the team's third "big scorer," Klay Thompson, has struggled. Thompson averaged 22.3 points during the regular season but has reached 20 points just twice in the first eight playoff games, averaging 16.3 PPG on 40.7% shooting. However, Draymond Green is picking up the scoring slack, averaging 14.9 PPG (on 51.2% from three-point range) plus adding 8.5 RPG and 9.1 APG while always playing great defense. The pick: The Spurs took two of three from the Warriors during the regular season, with one of those wins being a 129-100 stunner on opening night at Golden State. Hard to believe taht the Warriors won't be well aware of that and with no Parker and a less than 100 percent Leonard, the Spurs don't figure to stay withing 'shouting distance' of the Warriors here in Game 1. Lay the points and make the Warriors a 10* play. |
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05-13-17 | Senators +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson guided the Senators to six-game series victories over Boston and the New York Rangers despite playing with two hairline fractures in his left heel. He raised his team-high point total to 13 (two goals, 11 assists) by recording game-winning goals in the series opener and clincher against New York. The Senators are making their first trip to the conference finals since 2007 and just their third trip in franchise history. Awaiting them for Game 1 of this series in Pittsburgh are the Penguins. Pittsburgh is the defending champs and the Penguins are looking to become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98 to repeat as champions. Pittsburgh needed just five games to dispatch Columbus in the first round but after taking a 3-1 lead over Washington, the Penguins were extended to a seventh game before taking out the Presidents' Trophy-winning Caps (again!) with a 2-0 Game 7 victory. Evgeni Malkin (NHL-leading 18 points in the playoffs) and rookie Jake Guentzel (league-best nine goals), have led the way. Ottawa: Head coach Guy Boucher has 'played the underdog card' in each of his team's first two series and while that assessment could have been debated against the Bruins and Rangers, Boucher's Senators are clearly the underdog in this series. Karlsson is the team leader in points, as well as being the 'heart' of this team, but note that Jean-Gabriel Pageau recorded six of his team-leading seven goals versus the Rangers on the heels of being limited to only 12 goals on the season and one in the first-round series against the Bruins. Craig Anderson has been publicly shredded for his questionable puck-handling decisions in these playoffs but he owns a respectable 2.49 GAA and .914 save percentage. Pittsburgh: The Penguins were out-played and out-shot by the Caps for most of the series but in the end, came out as the winner. A big reason was the play of Marc-Andre Fleury, who saved his best for Game 7 at Washington, recording a 29-save shutout. He's hasn't put up Rinne-like numbers this postseason but he's got a 2.55 goals-against average and .927 save percentage (.927). Head coach Mike Sullivan has stated that Fleury "deserves the opportunity to play" even though regular-season starter Matt Murray has returned to health. "If we traded (Fleury), we wouldn't be in this room right now," Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford said of the veteran, who was the subject of trade rumors throughout the season. "You'd be in another city. If not for our goalie, we wouldn't have won that series (against Washington)." The pick: The Penguins have won three of four postseason meetings with the Senators but note that this season, Ottawa captured two of the three meetings against Pittsburgh, with Karlsson erupting for seven points (one goal, six assists) in those three games. Yes, Pittsburgh has enjoyed comfortable wins by two or more goals on five occasions this postseason but Ottawa has seen nine of its 12 playoff games decided by just one goal, including the first eight the Senators played. Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Senators an 8* play. |
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05-13-17 | Padres v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Padres posted a 6-3 victory in the opener of this three-game IL series in Chicago, winning for just the second time in nine games. In the process, they sent the White Sox to their sixth consecutive loss and ninth setback in their last 11 games.Chicago has been outscored 34-18 during its six-game slide and has given up at least six runs in seven of its last 11 contests. The series continues tonight in Chicago. The pitching matchup: Trevor Cahill (3-2 & 3.06 ERA) goes for San Diego and Dylan Covey (0-3 ERA 8.28 ERA) for Chicago. Cahill comes in having won each of his last three decisions, giving up just one earned run over 18 1/3 innings during those outings. He allowed just one hit over 5 1/3 scoreless frames against Oakland in his last turn but received an early hook due to a season-high five walks. Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.53 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts / teams are 2-6) against the White Sox. Covey has been treated rudely in his first season in the majors and has allowed six runs in each of his last two starts. He has served up seven HRs in 25 innings, including three when the New York Yankees torched him for eight runs and 10 hits in five innings on April 19. Covey has a horrendous 1.92 WHIP and opposing batters are hitting .349 against him.
The pick: Maybe it's a stretch to side with the White Sox (and Covey) but note that Cahill has struggled on Chicago's South Side, with a 7.32 ERA in five games (four starts). I expect both starters to struggle but will side with Chicago's bullpen, whose 2.29 ERA is the second-best in all of MLB (San Diego's ranks 26th at 5.12). Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Chicago a 10* play. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics are one win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference finals but will that victory come in Washington? So far, the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS this series, after the teams did the exact same thing in their regular season series, with the home team posting a 4-0 SU & ATS mark. The only 'twist' to Boston's Game 5 win was that for once (in a home win), the Celtics didn't rely completely on Isaiah Thomas. With Washington's defensive focus squarely on the 5-9 All-Star PG, Boston's Avery Bradley recorded a playoff career high 29 points (25 in the 1st half, alone) plus frontcourt players Horford (19-6-7) and Crowder (18 & 8) also has excellent games. The Wizards shot only 38.5 percent as teeam and while Wall had 21 points, he had just four assists ending his NBA record streak of 11 consecutive playoff games with at least 20 points and seven assists! Boston: Thomas showed his skills as a facilitator in Game 5, becoming a screen-setter and passer, which kept the Wizards off balance. It's likely Boston will need more of the same from Thomas in Game 6 but while the Celtics can't expect another 29-point game from Bradley, they will need strong play from him on both ends of the floor, offensively and defensively, Al Horford is shooting 69.4 percent from the floor, including 58.8 percent from three-point range in the series and it would be nice if he could keep that up. Washington: The Wizards had all the momentum going into Game 5 after winning the previous two games by a total of 46 points but were flat as a pancake in Game 5. "It started with the focus," Wizards head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "That was our No. 1 mistake. We didn’t have the focus that it would have taken to win in this building." Shooting guards Beal and Bojan Bogdanovic (off teh bench) combined to go 8-of-26 from the floor, including just 1-of-8 from beyond the arc. Washington used a 22-0 run in Game 3 and a 26-0 spurt in Game 4 to create separation in a pair of home wins but failed to get the defensive stops that led to those runs in Game 5. "All we can do is focus on Game 6 at home," Wizards shooting guard Bradley Beal told reporters. The pick: The question then becomes, will the Wizards be able to regain their composure and swagger? I took the Spurs (even without Kawhi) last night and watched Houston fail miserably in attempting to bounce back from its Game 5 loss. Other than Wall, the remainder of Washington's starters have been erratic throughout the entire series, As for the bench, we saw Kelly Oubre Jr. return from a one-game suspension following a Flagrant 2 foul in Game 3 to score 13 points off the bench but Washington's other reserves shot 3 of 16 from the floor in Game 5. I just have ZERO faith in Washington, especially laying points. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-11-17 | Spurs +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs took a 3-2 lead in this series by winning Game 5 in OT (110-107), with All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard on the bench due to a left ankle injury. Manu Ginibili "turned back the clock" with his best game of the series, which included a line of 12-7-5 and then capped his performance with a block of Harden's possible game-tying three-point attempt at the OT buzzer. Harden had 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 5 but it wasn't enough..He was just 4-of-15 from three-point range plus Gordon, inserted into the starting lineup for Game 5, shot 4 of 13 from the floor (11 points) and reserve guard Lou Williams score only six points on 3 of 10 shooting. San Antonio: Leonard vows he'll be in the starting lineup tonight saying, "Yeah, I'm going to be able to play," when asked during Wednesday's off-day media availability. Patty Mills also figures to draw the start at PG for the second straight game, after scoring 20 points and knocking down five 3-pointers in Game 5. Then there is PF LaMarcus Aldridge, who scored 18 points and added 14 rebounds on Tuesday, recording his first double-double of the series. Houston: Head coach Mike D'Antoni not only "went small" by starting Gordon, he also opted for just a seven-man rotation, with veteran center Nene (groin) done for the postseason. Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams being the only reserves to play in Game 5. Anderson had a strong game with 19 points but as noted already, Williams shot poorly. In Houston's three losses this series, Williams has gone 5 of 21 (23.8%) from the floor, scoring a total of just 10 points! The pick: The results of D'Antoni's decision to go with a seven-man rotation were NOT good. Harden and Gordon each played 43 minutes, Beverley was out there for 41 minutes and Ariza for 40 minutes. As fatigue mounted, offensive execution waned. Down the stretch, the Rockets began standing around and settled for tough shots instead of challenging the Spurs' scrambling defense. "Probably got tired," D'Antoni said of the lack of pace and production. "We just couldn't quite push it. We had our opportunities with about three minutes to go in the game to knock a couple 3s down I thought were good shots. We just didn't make the big play at that moment." You think! I've noted often that this year's San Antonio team does not have the depth of past editions and now Parker is out plus Leonard may be too, or playing at less anna 100 percent. However, the Spurs still have Popovich plus a champion's mentality entering a game of this magnitude. In contrast, Houston's D'Antoni is no Popovich (who is?) plus are the Rockets really ready for prime time? The Spurs are 3-1 at Houston in 2016-17, going 2-0 in the regular season while splitting the two games in this series thus far. Take the points and make the Spurs a 10* play. |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors just finished off the Jazz (Monday) in a four-game sweep, a series in which the visiting team covered all games. That's something you rarely see. The Boston (No. 1 seed) and Washington (No. 4 seed) series continues tonight with what's so far, been a more traditional series, as home court has held. The Celtics won Games 1 and 2 at home to open things up, covering both games, although Boston needed OT (plus 53 points from Thomas) to do so. The series shifted to Washington for Games 3 and 4 and in a YUGE understatement, the momentum has shifted. The Wizards won Games 3 and 4 by a combined 46 points and used a 22-0 in the first quarter of Game 3 and a 26-0 run in the third quarter of Sunday's game to go from being into an 0-2 'hole' to blowing out the Celtics for a second straight game, sending the series back to the TD Garden tied at two-all. Washington: "We played inspired basketball for each other," Wizards coach Scott Brooks, who called the 26-0 run in Game 4 his team's best stretch of the season, told reporters. "Defensively we were in the right position. ... We didn't make silly mistakes that we made early in the game, and it pays off." The Wizards go where PG John Wall takes them, as he's averaging 27.8 points, 12.3 assists and 2.8 steals in the series. However, SG Bradley Beal played his best game of the series on Sunday with 29 points. Forwards Porter (18 & 8) and Morris (16 & 10) also played well, as did Bogdanovich off the bench for the second straight game (had 13 points in Game 4, after getting 19 in Game 3). Boston: PG Isaiah Thomas scored 33 points in Game 1 and then 53 in Boston's OT win in Game 2. However, points were much harder to come by for him in Washington, where he averaged just 16.0 points in the two losses. SG Bradley is hurting with a hip pointer and scored only five points on Sunday, plus is shooting just 34.0 percent for the series. Key frontcourt players Horford and Crowder have been hit-and-miss, something head coach Brad Stevens knows all too well. "We played pretty good in stretches but then two stretches killed us on this trip to D.C.," Stevens said after Game 4. "One in the first quarter (in Game 3), one in the third quarter (in Game 4). We have to play better throughout the whole game (in Game 5). The pick: The Wizards were in both of the games played in Boston but could never "finish the job." After two dominating home wins, will the Wizards "get it right" in Boston? Thomas suggested after Game 4 that he wasn't getting the benefit of foul calls while going without a free-throw attempt in the loss. "The refs were allowing them to hold and grab and do all those things," Thomas told reporters. "I think, especially in the third quarter, I might have hit the ground five or six straight times, and I'm not the one that likes hitting the ground. ... I can't be allowed to be held and grabbed every pin-down, every screen." Something tells me that Thomas will not only play MUCH better in Game 5 but that he'll also be getting some of the calls he failed to get in Washington. This series has not just been home court-dominated in the playoffs but the home team won all four games played during the regular season as well, with Boston winning and covering the two regular season games in the TD Garden against the Wizards. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-09-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Atlanta will send Bartolo Colon (1-3 & 6.27 ERA) to the mound to face Houston's Charlie Morton (3-2 & 3.97 ERA). The 43-year-old vet is not off to a good 2017 start and was knocked around in his last two outings, allowing 11 ERs on 17 hits in just nine innings against Milwaukee and the NY Mets. He's allowed just one run in two of his six starts this season but at least four runs in the other four. However, he's got a decent history against Houston, going 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 12 career starts (teams are 8-4). Morton spent the first nine years of his career in the NL (beginning with Atlanta as a rookie in 2008) but has found the AL to his liking so far, a he comes in looking for his third straight win after posting a total of 20 strikeouts in 13 innings against Oakland and Texas. He owns 39 strikeouts in 34 total innings in 2017. He's made five all-time starts against the team he began his career against, going 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA (teams are 3-2). The pick: Colon's not in prime form so far but he's got a good history against the Astros. Meanwhile, the Braves will likely be motivated against an ex-teammate, who has really been nothing more than a journeyman in his big league career so far, and that's being nice. Morton owns a career 49-73 record (.402), with a 4.51 ERA, 1.44 WHIP plus opponents have batted .276 against him. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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05-09-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While first the Cavs and now the Warriors have made short work (four-game sweeps) of their respective second round series, the other two series are both tied at two-all. Both the second-seeded Spurs and third seeded Rockets in the West and the top-seeded Celtics and fourth-seeded Wizards have turned their series into a best-of-3 situation. While the Bos/Was series has seen the home team go 4-0 SU & ATS, this SA/Hou series has seen each team win a game on the others home court with each home team also owning a blowout home victory. Houston: The Rockets drained 19 three-pointers in their Game 4 victory, turning a close game into a 125-104 rout by scoring 68 second-half points! "This is a big stage they did it on," Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "We have a lot of work left, but there's no reason why we can't go down to San Antonio and repeat the performance." The Rockets did just that in Game 1, making 22 three-points (on a record 50 attempts!) in a 126-99 road win. However, Houston suffered a huge blow in Game 4, as backup center Nene suffered a torn left groin and will miss the rest of the playoffs. Nene and starter Clint Capela were giving Houston solid production in the middle and the Rockets will be forced to use power forwards Montrezl Harrell and Ryan Anderson at center. The good news for Houston is that after averaging just 16.5 PPG over the first two games of this series, MVP-candidate James Harden has averaged 35.5 points over the last two contests. San Antonio: The Spurs must now "turn the page" after missing (in a big way) an opportunity to come back to San Antonio up 3-1. The point guard situation is a huge issue (problem?), after the season-ending quadriceps injury to Tony Parker in Game 2. Rookie Dejounte Murray started the past two games and averaged five points and 1.3 assists while backup Patty Mills averaged 12.5 points and 3.5 assists but made just 8-of-21 FG attempts. Star SF Kawhi Leonard scored just 16 points in Game 4 after averaging 27 over the first three games plus PF LaMarcus Aldridge is enduring a mostly quiet series (and postseason), save for his 26-point outburst in Game 3 (on 12 of 20 shooting). Pau Gasol, a two-time NBA champions while with the Lakers, has also been a non-factor, averaging just eight points in the series with just one double-digit effort in four games. The pick: The Rockets looked lost in Game 2 on the road and Game 3 at home, but played a complete game on Sunday. Harden scored 28 points and handed out 12 assists in the win but maybe even more importantly, the Houston bench stepped up, getting 22 points from guards Eric Gordon and 13 from Lou Williams, after the entire reserve unit scored just 10 points in its Game 3 loss. Bottom line in this series just may be that Houston is the better team. However, since moving to the AT&T Center in 2002, the Spurs are 81-28 (.743) in home playoff games, giving them the most such wins by any team in the league during that time span. That said, the Spurs have not been a great home team this season, going 35-11 SU (including the postseason) but just 23-23 ATS. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 27-18 ATS on the road. Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-07-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-121 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington/Boston series is the highest-scoring second round series (games have averaged 229 points) and it's also the lone series in which the home team has won and covered each game, after the Wizards emphatically announced they are still in the series with a blowout win in Game 3. However, the Wizards need to keep the intensity without the technicals. Washington rolled to a 116-89 win in a Game 3 but the contest featured eight technical fouls, three ejections and one flagrant foul that came when Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. reacted to a hard screen by Boston's Kelly Olynyk by running and shoving him to the ground. Oubre is suspended for Game 4. The Celtics overcame big early deficits to win each of the first two games of the series but never recovered after a 22-0 run led to Washington taking a 39-17 lead after the first quarter of Game 3. Boston: "I think that it’s a lot less about talking about it and just doing it," Boston head coach Brad Stevens told reporters of the need for better starts. "That’s the bottom line: We have to play better out of the gate than we’ve played. And that’s not just (Game 3); that’s all three games of this series and a few of the games during the regular season." PG Isaiah Thomas had 53 points in Game 2 but was limited to 13 points in 29 minutes in Game 3 and did not start the second half while staying in the locker room undergoing dental work. Boston's entire team shot poorly in Game 3, making just 35.1 percent from the floor, including going only 10 of 32 on threes. Washington: John Wall reminded all that there is another PG in this series beside Thomas, scoring 24 points and handing out eight assists. However, it was a team effort by Washington in Game 3, as all five starers scored in double digits (Gortat had a double-double with 13 & 16) plus Bogdanovic finally made some 'noise' with 19 points off the bench, including shooting 4 of 7 on threes.The pick: The Wizards finally made their strong start hold up in Game 3 (led 39-17 after the 1st quarter) and clearly turned up the physicality. However, as noted, Washington needs to find a balance. Also, Bradley Beal needs to find his shooting touch, as he's shooting only 27.4 percent from three-point range in the postseason, including just 2-of-13 over the last two games of this series. Brooks made the needed adjustments in Game 3 and it's now Stevens' turn. Stevens has done a great job coaching this team, as the Game 3 loss ended a 6-0 ST & ATS run for Boston. I expect the road team to break through for the first time in this series and I'll make Boston an 8* play. |
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05-07-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +7.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers needed six games to beat the Toronto Raptors in last year's Eastern Conference finals, although the four wins came by an average margin of 28.5 PPG. The two teams are meeting a round earlier this season and after sweeping the Pacers in the first round, the Cavs now own a 3-0 series lead over the Raptors in this series. Cleveland won Game 1 by "just" 11 points but note that the Cavs led by 22 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest. Cleveland then won Game 2 by the score of 125-103 and then Game 3 by 115-94. Cleveland received some much-needed rest after sweeping the Indiana Pacers in the opening round and will receive another break if it can close out the Raptors on Sunday. Toronto was outscored 36-17 in the fourth quarter of Game 3 when it needed a supreme 12 minutes to make it a series and will likely be without starting point guard Kyle Lowry (ankle) for the second consecutive contest. "I'm probably doubtful, honestly," Lowry told reporters on Saturday. "I don't think I'll be able to play. ... It's not looking great, but I'm not giving up on it." Cleveland: "For myself, I just focus on that game," Cavaliers forward LeBron James said after Game 3. I don't really think about the sweep, I don't think of anything but how can I as leader of the ballclub put our guys in a position to be successful." The Raptors haven't come close to stopping LBJ, who is averaging 36.3 points and shooting 60.4 percent from the floor in the series. He has been superb overall in seven games this postseason with averages of 34.3 points, nine rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.4 steals. Toronto: SG DeMar DeRozan produced a career playoff-best 37 points in Game 3, after he had scored just five points on 2-of-11 shooting in Game 2. It looks like Lowry will be out again, so DeRozan will need another huge effort. Cory Joseph started for Lowry in Game 3 and was awful, scoring only four points (on 2-of-12 shooting) with six assists in 33 minutes. He'll have to do better and so will every other Raptor getting "PT" in Game 4. The pick: Maybe I'm just "spitting into the wind" but the Raptors were 2-for-18 on 3-point shots on Friday, missing their first 12 of the game. That's far from typical. "I thought we did an excellent job of moving the basketball, finding the right person," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey said. "But again, it's something we've done, knocking down 3s all year and, for whatever reason, it's escaping us right now." Casey added, " ... At one point, we were one of the better offensive teams in the league, depending on the 3s, knocking down the 3, and now we have to transfer it from regular-season basketball to playoff basketball." Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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05-06-17 | Warriors -5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors haven't really been tested yet by Utah in taking the first two games of this series but in winning by 12 and 11 points, Golden State is 0-2 ATS. The Jazz fell behind by six points after the first quarter in Game 1 and the fell behind by 18 points after the first period in Game 2. Utah has yet to lose complete touch in any of the first two games but the Jazz haven't really threatened yet, either. Golden State: The Warriors' hot start in Game 2 was led by Draymond Green, who knocked down four of his five 3-pointers in the first quarter and finished with 21 points before leaving after a scary fall in the fourth quarter. However, he seemed unconcerned about the injury following the contest. "I knew my knee was just locking up a little bit," Green told reporters. "I had it before. A little tweak. It wasn't like this huge sigh of relief because I kind of knew exactly what it was from the jump. But it's always good to know you're OK." Utah: The Jazz know they need to get off to a better start at home. "I do think we have to start the game better," Utah head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "Hopefully we can do that at home. But we also want to try and be ahead at the end. If you don't start well, you're climbing an uphill battle. I think that means being more aggressive on offense. If you're not, they really capitalize going the other way." Gordon Hayward scored a game-high 33 points in Game 2 after slumping to 12 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 1 but PG George Hill sat out Game 2 with a toe injury and remains day-to-day. Joe Johnson was a star against the Clippers (15.7 PPG) but he's scored just a total of just 19 points in two games against the Warriors, shooting 7 of 18 from the floor (38.9%). Also, Favors made big contributions off the bench in support of and in relief of Gobert against LA, but has been a non-factor against the Warriors. The pick: The Warriors made comments prior to the series about wanting to face the Clippers instead of the Jazz in the second round due to the more varied nightlife options in Los Angeles. That could mean that the lack of nightlife on the road will keep the Warriors focused on Game 3! The Warriors have played very efficiently offense, handing out 32 assists on 40 FGs in Game 1 and 33 assists on 42 FGs in Game 2. They have shot a combined 49.1 percent from the floor through two games and defensively, have forced 14.5 turnovers per game while averaging 22 points per game off of turnovers. The Warriors are too good for the Jazz. Make Golden State a 10* play. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers needed six games to beat the Toronto Raptors in last year's Eastern Conference finals, although the four wins came by an average margin of 28.5 PPG. The two teams are meeting a round earlier this season and after sweeping the Pacers in the first round, the Cavs have again opened their series with the Raptors by easily winning Games 1 and 2 of this series at home. Game 1's margin was 'just" 11 points, although let's note that the Cavs led by 22 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest. Cleveland led by 18 heading into the fourth quarter of Game 2 and extended the lead to win by 22. The Cavaliers are 6-0 in this year's postseason and have averaged 1115.3 PPG. Toronto had its hands full with Milwaukee (won in six games) and now hope its deja vu against the Cavs. Cleveland steamrolled Toronto in the first two games of last season's playoffs as well, before the Raptors thrived in their home environment and won the next two contests at Air Canada Centre. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics +5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: It's been the "Isaiah Thomas Show" in the first two games of this second round series between the top-seed Celtics and fourth-seeded Wizards. Washington opened Game 1 on a 16-0 run but lost by 12 and then scored 42 points in the first quarter of Game 2 (led by 13), only to lose (and fail to cover) in OT, 129-119. Thomas has persevered through personal tragedy to score 33 points in Game 1 and then 53 points in Game 2 (one shy of Hondo's franchise record for a single playoff game), with 29 of his points coming in the fourth quarter and OT. Washington PG John Wall collected 40 points and 13 assists for the Wizards in Game 2, after scoring 20 points with 16 assists in Game 1, but he's been overshadowed by Thomas. "It was a heck of a basketball game," Washington head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "Two teams played their hearts out. Two great players played well. I thought both teams competed, played their hearts out, nothing to be ashamed of. We lost both games. Now we got to go home and take care of Game 3." Boston: Sure, Thomas has been the definitive star but center Al Horford had 21-9-10 in Game 1 and then 15 & 12 in Game 2. SF Crowder has averaged 19.0 & 6.5 in the first two games and Thomas' backcourt partner Bradley, has averaged 16.0 PPG, although he has shot just 13-of-36 from the floor in the series. Who knows what might have been if Rondo hadn't gotten hurt after Chicago took a 2-0 lead? However, we do know that Boston has now won six in a row, averaging 112.2 PPG. Washington: John Wall darted, dashed and dished from all over the court in Tuesday's Game 2 but nothing was enough to conquer Boston's Thomas. It sure didn't help that after scoring 27 points and shooting 4-of-7 on threes in in Game 1, Bradley Beal went 1-of-9 from three-point range in Game 2 while scoring only 14 points. Washington led 110-104 with 2:43 remaining in regulation but couldn't close out the Celtics. "It was tough. We had opportunities to win this game," Wall said. "Last 2/3 minutes, (we) had the opportunities to make shots, but we missed some good looks. They came down and made some tough shots. They made shots that we missed." The pick: Will playing on familiar turf help Washington's defenders better deal with the 5-foot-9 Thomas? Washington did win both home regular-season games against Boston but I'm not stepping in front of this Boston 'train,' led by Thomas 'the conductor.' Boston head coach Brad Stevens was just 2-10 in this playoff career after the Celtics lost the first two games against Chicago at home. However, he has since led Boston to six consecutive wins and covers. Can you say SEVEN in a row? Make the Celtics an 8* play. |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +8 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers played very poor team defense in going 10-14 from March 1 through the end of the regular season but the team's answer to that come the playoffs has been...Outscore its opponents. The Cavs have averaged 113.4 PPG in winning their first five playoff games, scoring a low of 106 and high of 119. Second-seeded Cleveland made it a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers in the opening round and built a 12-point lead after one quarter against the Raptors, then took a 22-point lead into the 4th quarter in cruising past the Raptors 116-105 on Monday. Cleveland knocked off the Raptors in last season's Eastern Conference finals when its four victories were by an average of 28.5 points and Toronto players know they need to prevent a landslide. "We've just got to play defense and not let them go up and down and do what they do, play defense for 48 minutes," Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters after Game 1. "We got to find ways to limit their spurts." Toronto: The Raptors could tinker with the lineup by going back to guard Norman Powell instead of center Jonas Valanciunas, which was how they won the last three games of their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. However, Powell may have had 12 points in Game 1 off the bench, but shot just 3 of 11. Or they could swap P.J. Tucker with DeMarre Carroll. Tucker had 13 points and 11 boards off the bench Monday. DeRozan and Lowry were fairly quiet (combined 39 points) but the bottom line is, the team must shoot better than 43.8% from the floor, including only 10 of 26 on threes. Cleveland: LBJ had 35 points and 10 rebounds in the opener and needs just 25 points to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5,762 points) for second place on the all-time postseason scoring list. He also has 88 career 30-point outings in the postseason, matching Kobe Bryant for second place on the all-time list. The records just keep falling. PG Kyrie Irving had 24 points and a career playoff-best 10 assists in Game 1 plus center Tristan Thompson collected 14 rebounds to raise his playoff average to 11.6 and he has reached double digits in all five of Cleveland's playoff games. The pick: Will the Cleveland 'express' just keep rolling? Losing Game 1 of a playoff series is hardly new for Toronto, as the Raptors now own a 1-12 record all time in those contests. History doesn't exactly bode well here either, as they are 1-5 in Game 2s on the road in postseason play. However, maybe Toronto can gain some measure of hope in noting that In their five playoff losses to Cleveland dating back to last year's conference finals, Game 1 on Monday was the closest. If the Raptors want any chance in this series, a win tonight is almost a must. Take the points and make Toronto a 10*. |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Wizards jumped out to a 16-0 lead in Game 1 but by game's end, the Celtics had their fifth straight playoff win (and cover!) since losing the first two games (at home!) of their first round series against the Bulls. Washington was outscored 71-42 in the second and third quarters, as Boston went on to a 123-111 victory. Thomas led the way with 33 points plus Crowder (24 & 6) and Horford 21-9-10) each had their best games of the 2017 postseason. Washington shot 50 percent as a team but made 10 three-pointers, compared to Boston's 19. Washington: Power forward Markieff Morris went down in the first half of Game 1 with an ankle injury and while he insisted after the contest that he would play Game, others are skeptical after he was seen noticeably limping and reportedly struggled to put on his shoe over the swollen left ankle. Wall had 20 points and 16 assists but wasn't dominate. SG Beal scored 27 points on Sunday and is now averaging 29.3 in the last four games. However, Washington knows it has to defend the three better. "Their 3-point shooting is a problem," head coach Scott Brooks said of the Boston Celtics, who tied a franchise record with 19 treys in Game 1. Bradley Beal added; "We gave up 19 threes, on the road. ... It's just a matter of us defending, man." Boston: Isaiah Thomas flew home to Tacoma, Wa., on Saturday for his sister's funeral and flew back across the country in time for the game, during which he delivered 33 points. "I mean, it's tough but it's the playoffs," Thomas told reporters. There's no excuses. I decided to play and I just tried to give it all I got for my team, and we came out with the win." Brad Stevens depends on Thomas but had to be even more thrilled with the play of both Crowder and Horford (see above). The pick: The Celtics may not yet be ready to challenge the Cavs but for now, Boston seems to be establishing itself as at least, the East's second-best team and by a significant margin. Boston owns five straight wins and covers this postseason, winning by a margin of nearly 14 PPG (108.4-to-94.6). Make Boston an 8* play. |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
analysis by 12 pm et |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz and Clippers each finished the regular season 51-31, so it only seems fitting that the teams will play a Game 7 (only first round series to go the distance) to decide which team will advance to meet the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers will get to play Game 7 at home, due to having won the season series between the two teams. It's been a back-and-forth series plus one that's been influenced by injuries. First it was Utah center Rudy Gobert going down in the first minute of Game 1 and then LA's Blake Griffin was injured in Game 3. Gobert returned in Game 4 but Griffin is out for the remainder of LA's postseason. Gobert twisted his left ankle late in Friday's Game 6 (LA won to force Sunday's contest) but X-rays ruled out a serious injury, so he will be available for Game 7. Utah: Utah SF Gordon Hayward has four 20-point outings in the series and is averaging 27.4 PPG, not including his Game 4 stint, which was limited to nine minutes due to food poisoning. Gobert is averaging 13.7 points and 11 rebounds since returning in Game 4.. Reserves Joe Johnson and Rodney Hood were having superb series until Game 6, when the Jazz squandered a great opportunity to close out the Clippers. Johnson had nine points on 3-of-9 shooting and Rodney Hood had four points on 2-of-10 shooting. LA Clippers: PG Chris Paul registered 29 points and eight assists in Friday's 98-93 do-or-die victory at Utah to even the series. "He is as competitive as a human being as I've ever been around," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "When you put that with the talent and the will, that's why he has performances like this in big games." This is a common refrain when people talk about Paul but is it an accident that he's never been on a team that has won a second round playoff series? No Griffin is not good news but center DeAndre Jordan has averaged 14 points and 13.8 rebounds in the series, while recording a double-double in each contest. The pick: The Clippers (as well as Paul) have had a checkered playoff resume but the Jazz haven't won a playoff series since 2010. However, bottom line is this. Home teams are 101-25 (.802) all-time in Game 7s. Dating back to to 1990, home teams are 52-14 SU and 39-25-2 ATS (60.9%) in Game 7s. Make the Clippers a 10* play. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers +6 v. Jazz | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Clippers scored only 58 points through three quarters in Game 5 and a 34-point final period was not enough for them to win on their home floor, as the Jazz pulled out a 96-92 win. The Jazz now own a 3-2 series heading back to Salt Lake City for Game 6 and will have a chance to win the franchise's first playoff series since downing the Denver Nuggets in a first-round series back in 2010. "It's no secret our back's against the wall, down 3-2," PG Chris Paul told reporters after Game 5. The Clippers have to win tonight and then back at Staples Center in Game 7, or it will be yet another underachieving postseason for that "other team from LA." LA Clippers: Regarding his team being down 3-2, Chris Paul added after Game 5, "Fortunately we've got a lot of guys in the locker room who had to do this a couple of years ago. We've got to do what we've got to do." However, the loss of power forward Blake Griffin (toe) is a huge loss and it's been magnified with Marreese Speights starting in his place in Games 4 and 5. Speights made just 2 of 8 shots for five points in Game 4, then missed his only three shots in Game 5, scoring just one point. Clippers guard Jamal Crawford exploded for 25 points in Game 4 but he then disappeared in Game 5, going 2 of 8 for four points. J.J. Redick finally got untracked with 27 points in Game 5 but over the first four games, he was only 10 of 29 from the floor (34.5%) while averaging 7.8 PPG. Utah: Gordon Hayward scored a career-high 40 points in Game 3 (a Utah loss) but due to food poisoning, was a non-entity in Game 4 (played only nine minutes) before being sent home at halftime. However, he was back on his game in Tuesday's victory as he contributed 27 points and eight rebounds. The return of center Rudy Gobert has also been a huge plus for the Jazz, as Utah's defense has turned up a notch since his return, with Gobert averaging 13.0 & 12.0 in Utah's Game 4 and 5 wins. Then there is veteran Joe Johnson, who averaged 9.2 points in the regular season but has increased that to 18.2 while leading a young squad. "These guys have never been in this situation. We have to go home with a business mindset and not be overconfident but confident enough." Let's also not forget backup SG Rodney Hood, who is averaging 17 points over the past two games (both Jazz wins), after averaging 8.0 PPG over the first three contests. The pick: Chris Paul has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs, in a carer that many believe is HOF worthy. Now it's seems highly unlikely that either the Clippers or Jazz will have much of a chance against the Warriors in the second round but the last thing Paul needs on his pathetic postseason resume is another first round loss. "This team is not going to quit, I can tell you that," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after the Game 5 loss. "You could see it in the locker room." All the pressure is on the Jazz in this one and Utah not only has to win but win by a margin to "collect the cash" in this one. Expect Chris Paul to come up big. Take the points and make the Clippers a 10* play. |
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04-27-17 | Spurs -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
San Antonio: How things have changed for the Spurs. Manu Ginobili is a four-time NBA champion and averaged 14.7 points in 198 career playoff games prior to this postseason. However, he had gone scoreless on a combined 0-of-15 shooting in the first four games of the series, before breaking out for 10 points on 4-of-6 in Game 5. Lucky for the Spurs, they have Kawhi Leonard, who some think is the league MVP, not Westbrook or Harden. Leonard is averaging 31.6 PPG on 57.6 percent shooting in the series, including 54.2 percent from three-point range. He's basically carrying the Spurs, who are not the same supremely talented and deep group of past editions. Memphis: PG Mike Conley has been a dominant force on the offensive end the last four games, averaging of 27.3 points on 53.5 percent shooting. Big men Marc Gasol (19.6 & 6.8) and Zach Randolph (13.2 & 7.6) have also been good but the drop off is dramatic after that, as the 40-year-old Vince Carter is the team's fourth-leading scorer at just 8.6 PPG. The pick: The home team is undefeated in nine overall meetings this season between these two teams but the Spurs have a championship pedigree, while the Grizzlies have nothing but playoff mediocrity to draw from. If the Spurs lose here, it's back to San Antonio for a Game 7 on Saturday and assuming they win, they'd have to host the well-rested Rockets in Game 1 of the next series on Monday. That's not something "Pop" will want for his overachieving team. Make the Spurs a 10* play. |
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04-26-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -8 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
It's not often we see the No. 1 seed in a conference lose the first two games of a series at home, especially when that No. 1 seed is matched against a No. 8 seed. However, the Bulls surprised the Celtics 106-0102 in Game 1 and then stunned them with a 111-97 victory in Game 2. However, Celtics have turned the tables on the Bulls by winning Games 3 and 4 in Chicago. The Celtics' back-to-back wins in Chicago came after Bulls point guard Rajon Rondo was sidelined with a fractured thumb, Boston PG Isaiah Thomas, whose playoff experience has been dominated by the grief of losing his sister in a car accident prior to the series, had his best game of the series in Game 4. However, Chicago head coach Fred Hoiberg claims that Thomas carries the ball repeatedly. The teams meet tonight in Boston, as the Celtics try to become the first home team to win a game this series. Chicago: Rondo has shed his cast and could potentially return for a Game 6 or Game 7. The Bulls need him, as after shooting 46.7 percent and averaging 25 assists in two wins at Boston, Chicago shot just 40.1 percent with 16.5 assists in the two games without Rondo at home. While the team waits on a possible Rondo return, Isaiah Canaan will be thrust into the starting lineup for Game 5 after emerging to score 13 points in 34 minutes of Sunday's loss. Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams have failed miserably in trying to replace Rondo in Games 3 and 4. Jimmy Butler remains Chicago's star, averaging 24.8-7.3-5.0 in the series. Boston: There can be little doubt that Rondo's injury gave Boston 'life,' but don't discount Brad Stevens' coaching. He made the decision "to go small" after Game 2, including the insertion of Gerald Green into the starting lineup. Green scored 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting to go along with seven rebounds in Game 4 while regular starter Amir Johnson did not see a single minute of action, after playing only six minutes in Game 3. The pick: Rondo was originally ruled out for Wednesday but USA Today reported Tuesday night that he might attempt to play in Game 5. As I noted in taking the Celtics in Game 4, Boston may be a VERY weak No. 1 seed but Chicago is one weak team, especially with no Rondo. Before Game 3, Stevens owned a 2-10 playoff record, the worst in NBA history for any coach with at least 10 decisions. Now, the picture is brighter and his team delivers a third straight win is this series, with room to spare!. Make Boston an 8* play |
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04-25-17 | Jazz +3 v. Clippers | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz and Clippers were each 51-31 during the regular season but LA earned the home court edge in this first round series due to a tiebreaker. After four games, the series is tied at two-all, with each team winning once on its opponents' home court. However, the series has been overshadowed by key injuries to both Utah center Rudy Gobert and LA power forward Blake Griffin. Gobert went down in the first minute of Game 1 but returned in Game 4 to score 15 points and grab 13 rebounds. Griffin was lost in Game 3, when the Clippers won in Utah but he's now out for the rest of the playoffs. Utah: Gobert's return was huge boost for the Jazz but the team's best player, SF Gordon Hayward, was limited to just nine minutes in Utah's Game 4 win, due to food poisoning. He took IV fluids prior to the game but to no avail. Hayward scored a career-high 40 points in Game 3 and is expected to give it a go tonight at Staples Center. Swingman Joe Johnson came up again big in the Game 4 win, scoring 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting. He also nailed the game-winner in Game 1 at the buzzer and heads into tonight's game averaging 19.3 PPG in the series.
LA Clippers: Will the Clippers' luck ever change? Griffin's absence inside during LA's fourth-quarter collapse in Game 4 was noticeable and magnified by Marreese Speights' poor effort (five points on 2-of-8 shooting). Los Angeles will likely be relying on the backcourt play of Paul (27 points in Game 4), Jamal Crawford (25 points) and J.J. Redick for the remainder of the series. However, while Crawford made 5-of-7 three-pointers on Sunday, he had missed all 11 he attempted during the first three games. As for Redick, he's averaged only 7.8 PPG in thed series (down from averaging 15.0 PPG during the regular season!), making only 34.5% from the floor, including 26.7% on threes. The pick: I believe the Clippers are headed for another playoff disappointment. Why wait until the second round to get blown out by the Warriors? Take the points and make the Jazz a 10* play. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks did not play particularly well at home during the regular season but came up with a huge home effort in Game 3, beating the Wizards 116-98. Atlanta couldn't control Wall in Games 1 and 2 (the PG had 32 points in each contest) and while the Hawks did shut him down in Game 3 either (Wall had 29), Atlanta did do a much better against the remainder of Washington's team. Also, the Hawks did a much better job of matching Washington's physicality here at home, led by Millsap's 29 points, 14 rebounds and five assists. PG Dennis Schroder continued his fine play as well, with 27 points and nine assists (he's averaging 25 points and eight assists after three games). Washington: Wall was 10 of 12 from the floor and 8 of 10 from the FT line in Game 3 but his teammates shot a combined 27 of 77 (35.1%). Washington SG Bradley Beal appeared to break out of his own slump with a big fourth quarter in Game 2 but fell off again in Game 3 while totaling 12 points on 6-of-20 shooting, including 0-of-6 from three-point range. Markieff Morris accused Millsap of being soft after the Hawks forward complained about the physical nature of the first game but Morris may want to shut up and just play better. He's totaled just 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting in the last two games. Atlanta: Millsap and Schroder have been Atlanta's key players but center Dwight Howard has failed to score in double figures in any of the first three games, averaging a woeful 6.0 PG, He is averaging RPG but one wonders if Atlanta can win this series with Howard providing no offense. Prince has averaged 14.0 PPG on 62.1% shooting but Atlanta's only other double digit scorer in this series is Hardaway (11.3), and he's shooting 29.4% from the floor, including under 20 percent on threes. The pick: Regarding the Morris/Millsap yapping, "It definitely got personal now," Millsap said. "I don't care. So what? Take this loss and go back to the hotel and be ready for the next game." As noted, the Hawks have been a mediocre home team all season and with Gortat outplaying Howard in the middle, the Washington center is averaging 10.0 & 9.7, I'm on the side of the Wizards to take control of this series by winning Game 4. Make Washington a 10* play. |
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04-23-17 | Celtics -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The 41-41 Bulls were able to sneak into the playoff field as the East's No. 8 seed, getting the nod over the 41-41 Heat by virtue of a tiebreaker. The Bulls then went into the tD Garden and won Game 1 106-102 over the top-seeded Celtics (53-29 on the season), before rolling over the Celtics in Game 2, by a score of 111-97. However, with Chicago PG Rajon Rondo ( in the 1st two games) out with a broken thumb in Game 3, the Celtics coasted to a 104-87 victory on Friday night. The series continues in Chicago on Sunday with Rondo out indefinitely with a fractured right thumb, Boston: Four of Boston's five starters scored in double digits in Game 3 with Boston connecting on 17 three-pointers, after making just 18 of 59 (30.5%) in the first two games. PG Thomas scored 16 points in Game 3, nearly 13 below his season average, but handed out nine assists. However, others around him became more involved offensively, namely fellow guard Avery Bradley (15 points, 4-of-6 from three-point range), who had shot 10 of 28 (35.7%) in the first two games. Bradley also had seven rebounds, seven assists and spent much of the game shutting down Butler and Wade on the defensive end. Backup PG Terry Rozier, a non-factor in the games in Boston, emerged in Game 3 to provide 11 points in 23 minutes off the bench. Chicago: Swingman Jimmy Butler averaged 26 points in the two wins at Boston but was held to 14 points on 7-of-21 shooting in Friday's loss. The Bulls shot just 39.3% as a team, including 6 of 21 on threes. Rondo's backups, Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams, combined for eight points, three assists and seven turnovers. Head coach Fred Hoiberg may just want to run the offense more through Butler and Dwyane Wade. Center Robin Lopez has been a real surprise for Chicago, averaging 14.7 points on 70.4 percent shooting, while adding 8.3 RPG (he has 16 offensive rebounds in the series!) The pick: Falling behind 3-1 may be a hill too high to climb for Boston, so Game 4 could be considered a "must win." The Celtics have been a decent road team this season (24-18 SU and 24-16-2 ATS including Game 3 of this series) and the bottom line is, Chicago is every bit a .500 team. Yes, Boston may be the weakest No. 1 seed in a long time (ever?) but as we saw in Game 3, they are a better team than the Bulls. Make Boston an 8* play. |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies were beaten badly in San Antonio, getting held to 82 points in each loss. Head coach David Fizdale's postgame rant about the officiating cost him some money but it may have also given the Grizzlies a spark. The Grizzlies led by a modest four points at the half but outscored the Spurs 31-17 in the third quarter and won 105-94. PG Conley had 24 points and Gasol and Randolph (now starting) each had 21. The Spurs shot 47.2 percent for the game but played uninspired basketball. San Antonio: Here's how Manu Ginobili told it. "Pop got upset with the guys starting the quarter, sat them, and the whole momentum changed," he told reporters. "In playoff games, especially on the road, a two-minute mental "something" can become a 10-point deficit. That's what happened. We were in good shape at the half. Not playing well, not shooting great, down four on the road, and it was a good situation. It was OK for us. We had that moment there in which the whole game changed." In the end, none of San Antonio's starters ended up playing more than 30 minutes in the loss. Memphis: The Grizzlies shot 50.6 percent from the floor and made 9 of 22 three-pointers last time out. Fizdale made just one lineup change for Game 3, inserting veteran forward Zach Randolph into the starting lineup to add a stronger interior presence. Randolph responded by scoring 21 points on 9-of-16 shooting and grabbing eight rebounds. "It felt good out there to start and get a rhythm and get in a rhythm out there faster," Randolph told reporters. "It felt good out there." Fizdale complained about the officiating but he also knew this. "The Spurs were punking us. Let’s be real about it," Fizdale told reporters. "Those first, probably out of the first eight quarters, they just bullied us for like five and a half of those and you’re not going to beat the Spurs letting them dictate everything. We had to match it. Otherwise we were going to get pummeled and I was just really proud of how the way we stepped up and took the challenge."
The pick: Memphis should be confident for Game 4, as the Grizzlies did win both home games over the Spurs in the regular season by 15 and eight points. However, Thursday's win snapped a a 10-game postseason losing streak for Memphis! The Spurs surely don't want this series going back to San Antonio tied at two-all. Make San Antonio a 10* play. |
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04-22-17 | Blues +1.5 v. Wild | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Wild avoided a sweep of their Western Conference first-round series against the Blues by winning 2-0 in Game 4. The teams are back in Minnesota for Game 5 on Saturday afternoon. The Wild had only managed three goals in losing the first three games of the series but their two goals on Wednesday were good enough, as Devan Dubnyk turned aside all 28 shots he faced. St Louis: The Blues appeared to take their foot off the gas in Game 4 and the Wild limited their quality chances. Some good news may be on the way, though. Paul Stastny (foot) skated with the top line at practice on Friday and could be in the lineup for the first time since March 21. St. Louis also needs leading scorer Vladimir Tarasenko to get things going. He leads the team with 16 shots in the series but has yet to score, managing only two assists in four games. Minnesota: “We just said coming into the game, we need to win one game and this is the only thing that matters,” Dubnyk told reporters. “This was our Stanley Cup. And it’s gonna be the same thing on Saturday, because if not, it’s over, and we’re not gonna think any further ahead than that.” Charlie Coyle has stepped up with a goal in each of the last two games and Martin Hanzal netted his first of the postseason in the Game 4 victory. Zach Parise leads the team with three points while Jason Zucker, who scored a career-best 22 goals in the regular season, has yet to notch a point despite pacing the Wild with 18 shots. The pick: After going 27-11-3 on home ice during the regular season, the Wild lost the first two of this series in OT. Can (will?) Minnesota win here at home and send the series back to St. Louis? I Maybe so but St. Louis goalie Jake Allen has stopped 140 of the 145 shots he has faced in the series. Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Blues an 8* play |
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04-21-17 | Clippers v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers and Jazz each finished the regular season at 51-31 and after two games of their first round playoff series, they are tied at one game apiece. However, the edge resides with the Jazz, who won Game 1 at Staples Center to steal away the home court advantage. However, before losing 114-108 in Salt Lake City on March 13, the Clippers had won nine in a row at Utah. The Jazz remain without center Rudy Gobert, who is still recovering from hyperextending his knee on the first possession of the series opener. It could take a while before he is game-ready again. LA Clippers: Losing Game 1 at home with the Jazz playing without Gobert just added to the Clippers' playoff lore of disappointment followed by disappointment. "We had a couple of days being pretty pissed off," PF Blake Griffin told reporters after scoring 24 points in the Game 2 win. "Our spirit [tonight] was great." Griffin helped fuel the interior dominance that led to a 60-38 scoring advantage in the paint and a 47-39 edge on the glass as the Clippers exploited the absence of Gobert. Center DeAndre Jordan had his share of issues with Gobert and the Jazz during the regular season but took control of the shorthanded Jazz in Game 2, recording 18 points on 9-of-11 shooting and 15 rebounds. PG Chris Paul figures to be successful regardless of who is on the court and he is averaging 23 points, 10.5 assists and three steals while shooting 55.9 percent from the floor in the series. Utah: The Jazz fell behind early in Game 1 and were outscored 29-18 in the first quarter in Tuesday's loss, a trend they need to reverse at home. "The first quarter is what really got us, and they hit us a little bit, set us back in Game 1, as well," forward Gordon Hayward told reporters following a 20-point effort. "We definitely have to be better in the first quarter, but besides the first quarter we played them pretty even." Veteran swingman Joe Johnson, who hit the game-winner in Game 1 while scoring a team-high 21 points, added 13 points off the bench and forward Derrick Favors also finished with 13 points and seven rebounds while starting in place of Gobert. The pick: The Clippers' three main stars all had strong performances in Game 2 (see above). However, through two games, shooting guards J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford have combined to go 12-for-37 from the floor (32.4%), including 1-for-14 from three-point range. The Jazz were able to win in LA without Gobert, so it's no stretch for them to win here at home without him, where they were 29-12 SU on the season. Make Utah a 10* play. |
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04-21-17 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Caps delivered a four-goal first period in Game 4 and hung on for a 5-4 win to even this first round series at one apiece. It's now the always pivotal Game 5, when a seven-game series is tied at two-all. The Capitals had an NHL-high 118 points in the regular season, while the Maple Leafs' 95 points made them the "last team into the playoff field." Toronto: Head coach Mike Babcock feels his team should be optimistic heading into Friday's Game 5. "If you'd told our guys at the start of the series it would be 2-2, they'd all do a cartwheel if they knew how. I couldn't do it, I'd hurt my back," Babcock said on Thursday. Toronto was not ready to play at the start of both Games 3 and 4. The Maple leafs were able to overcome Game 3's sluggish start (won 4-3 in OT) but that four-goal first period in Game 4 proved too much of an obstacle to overcome. Youth is being served by the Maple Leafs, as Toronto has five rookie goal-scorers thi series to join the 2007-08 New York Rangers as the only teams over the last 25 years of the playoffs to accomplish that feat. Washington: The Caps, the President's Trophy winners, have had their hands full with the upstart Leafs, in part because the Capitals feel Toronto has gotten most of the favorable bounces in the series, leaving them feeling helpless at times. "We're becoming really mentally tough in this series," Washington coach Barry Trotz said Thursday. "They've got some strange goals, and that sometimes can play on your mind a little bit." T.J. Oshie has been 'killing' Toronto, highlighted by him recording his third career postseason multi-goal performance on Wednesday. Oshie is riding a six-game playoff point streak (four goals, five assists) dating to last year while fellow forwards Nicklas Backstrom (two goals, three assists) and captain Alex Ovechkin are enjoying three-game point and goal streaks, respectively. The pick: Here's the rub. Washington is best-known for its past playoff failures and now it's a best-of-three series. It sure doesn't help that Braden Holtby is hardly playing like a reigning Vezina Trophy winner, having allowed 12 goals allowed, a 3.37 goals-against average and an .897 save percentage, in the last three contests. Washington's two wins in the series have each come by just one goal, a 3-2 OT win in Game 1 and Game 4's 5-4 win. Take the 1 1/2 goals with Toronto and make teh Maple Leafs an 8* play. |