The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.

The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1. 

The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning. 

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

Cleveland Cavaliers

10* play

The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.

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The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points.

Dallas Mavericks

10* play

The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.) 

The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

10* play

The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year. 

The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

Washington Wizards

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The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. 

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Selection: The set-up: NC State hosts Lipscomb in the NIT quarterfinals. The Wolfpack got back Harvard to advance, led by CJ Bryce with 16 points and seven boards. The Bison advanced with an 86-69 rout of North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans, led by 24 points from Rob Marberry. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Lipscomb is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a SU win, while the NC State Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU win and 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home. I’m banking on NC State’s defense and the home town crowd to prove to be too much for the Bison tonight.

NC State Wolfpack

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The set-up: Two teams with the best names of all time clash in the CIT quarterfinals tonight. The Presbyterian Blue Hose advanced by defeating Robert Morris 77-70. Overall the Blue Hose average 78.6 PPG. The Herd punched their ticket to the quarterfinals are a 78-73 win over IUPUI. Marshall so far has averaged 80.1 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Hose are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Thundering Herd are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. Marshall also has a huge advantage here by earning the second round bye, as clearly its much more rested. Lay the points.

Marshall Thundering Herd 10* play

The set-up: The Suns have lost three straight, but I think they put up a fight here down the stretch and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Phoenix got 32 points from Devin Booker in the Suns’ most recent setback to the Kings. Utah destroyed the Bulls on the road in their last game (after losing on the road in Atlanta), but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight in its first game back from the extended East coast road trip.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Utah is just 1-2 ATS this season after a huge blowout victory of 30 or more points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: UC Irvine clearly can’t be taken lightly after knocking off K-State in the opening round 70-64. The Anteaters have averaged 107.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Note that UC Irvine has held its opposition to just 40.7 percent shooting from inside the arc, which ranks first in the country. The Ducks smashed Wisconsin 72-54, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this aggressive Anteaters defense. Overall the Ducks average 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 92.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UC Irvine is 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Bank on the Anteaters going down with a fight, but don’t be shocked by the outright either. Either way though, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Denver comes to town off a 111-93 road win over the Knicks, while the Pacers enter off a 112-89 road loss at Golden State on Thursday. Denver has dominated this series of late, winning the last two, including a 102-100 victory in the first matchup on March 16th. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Overall Denver is 7-3 in its last ten, averaging 110.8 points in that span. The Pacers return home after an 0-4 Western road swing. Indiana is averaging 107.7 PPG, while allowing 104.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after playing on two days of rest. I think this is a bad matchup for Indiana and I look for the visitors to keep the good times rolling for at least one more night. Play on Denver.

10* play

The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

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The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range. 

The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.

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The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.

10* play

The set-up: These teams are similar in that they both employ a 2-3 matchup zone defense. Baylor finished 19-13 and is back dancing after a one-year absence. Only two Baylor players have NCAA Tournament experience. Syracuse finished 20-13 and this will be coach Jim Boeheim’s 34th NCAA Tournament appearance. Syracuse sat out starting guard Tyus Battle in both ACC Tournament games as a precautionary measure because of a sore back, but he’s been returned to go at 100% health in this one. 

The pick: The Orange have held opponents to 40 percent shooting for the season and 32.3 percent from range. The Orange are also 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite in the -1 to -7 range, while Baylor is just 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament contests. Lay the points.

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The set-up: The St. Francis Terriers had a 17-15 record overall, but they’d go 9-7 in league play and a share of the Northeast Championship (they average 71 points, led by 15.1 per game from Jalen Jordan.) Hampton was 9-7 in the Big South, but just 15-16 overall. Hampton is 10-3 at home this year and it averages 81.7 PPG.

The pick: The Pirates though aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side of things and I believe that leaves the door wide open for this under rated Terriers team. Take it for what you will as well, but St. Francis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing a game as road dog, while Hampton is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tournament games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Almost assuredly not. I’m not calling for one at all anyways. But I do believe the Bradley Braves come in under the radar here and I believe they can keep this one competitive late. MSU came from behind to knock off Michigan in the Big Ten title game and could easily be still caught up on that big come from behind victory. The Braves won’b be going down without a fight, as they return to The Big Dance for the first time since 2006. Bradley limits its opposition to 41.1 percent shooting and 32.8 percent from range. The Braves had a signature win over Penn State, 59-56 in the Cancun Challenge. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bradley is 11-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 5-0 ATS in all neutral court games, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a tight battle. Despite backing its way down the stretch, ASU has now made back-to-back NCAA Tourney appearances for the first time since the early 80’s. If recent history is any precedence, then the Sun Devils have to be loving their chances today as well as they’d meet the Red Storm in LA last year and beat them 82-70. This is St. John’s first winning season for Chris Mullin since he took over four years ago. St. John’s got out to a quick start in non-conference play and despite a shot in The Big Dance, the team has failed to live up to expectations as far as many are concerned. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. John’s is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 neutral sit games, while ASU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Lay the short points, play on Arizona State.

10* play

The set-up: Temple lost 80-74 in the quarterfinals of the ACC to Wichita State on Friday, while Belmont lost 77-65 to Murray State in the title game of the OVC Tournament back on March 9th. These teams have never played against each other. The Owls average 74.8 PPG and they allow 71.2. The Bruins average a whopping 87.4 PPG, while allowing just 73.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while the Owls are only 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I think Belmont’s high-octane offense turns out to be the difference in this one. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.

10* play

The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3. 

The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.

10* play on Florida State

The set-up: This is a big game. The Lightning are out to prove their the best team in the league this year and they can prove that with a resounding victory over the defending champs. But clearly Washington won’t be going down without a fight. The Capitals have been great since the All Star break. Washington averages 3.39 goals and it allows 3.07. The Lightning average 3.82 goals and they allow 2.62. 

The pick: Washington is 15-9 (+3.4 units) this year after a win by two goals or more and in a game which I expect to be decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Capitals on the puck line.

10* play

The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.

10* play on LSU

The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.

10* play

The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards. 

The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair. 

The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge.

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The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war.

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The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9. 

The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points.

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The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points.

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The set-up: Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I think the Thunder “come to play” tonight. A date vs. the “on again, off again” Spurs is just what the doctor ordered. San Antonio did break a three-game losing skid with a win at home over Detroit last time out, but if it’s shown anything this year, it’s been inconsistency in form from one game to the next. Despite not having the services of Paul George, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can take advantage. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog, while SA is just 9-13 ATS off a home victory this year. This one has upset written all over it.

10* play

The set-up: Two of the hottest teams in the league collide North of the Border Friday night and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Sure the Blazers are going to stumble at some point, but Portland has easily destroyed all of its Eastern competition since coming out of the All Star break. The Blazers come to Toronto on a five game win streak after easily dispatching the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday. Toronto bounced back from a loss to the Magic to beat Boston as well. But Portland won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note that the Blazers had lost five straight in this series before a convincing 128-122 home win on December 14th in the lone meeting so far this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points.

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The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Utah comes in off a come from behind 111-105 win over the Clippers just last night and I think it’ll have difficulty mustering up enough energy to contend with the Nuggets in the thin Denver air. So far these clubs have split a pair of meetings, but the home side actually plays with revenge after dropping the last one 114-108 in Utah on January 23rd. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in the second game of back-to-backs this year, but fatigue is definitely a major factor in my opinion at this point of the season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while Utah is a terrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 when playing the second game of a back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

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The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire.

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The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points.

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The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points.

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 The set-up: New Orleans rallied for an impressive win over LBJ and the Lakers without star player Anthony Davis in the line-up, but I think the team will have a hard time mustering up the same energy vs. their non-conference opponent today. The 76ers’ four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. the Blazers at home and while they’ll be without their big man Joel Embiid tonight, they won’t be lacking for motivation. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112.3. The Pelicans on the other hand average 115.7 PPG and they allow 115. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. This one has upset written all over it. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State. 

The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points.

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The set-up: The Spurs come in dejected, still thinking about their 120-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday. The Knicks enter off a 115-104 loss to Minnesota on Friday night. San Antonio continues to struggle away from friendly confines though during its annual “Rodeo road trip,” now just 1-5 after the setback in Canada. The margin for error is slim most nights for the Spurs, who average 112.4 PPG and who allow 111.5. 

The pick: The Knicks are in full rebuild mode, but they feature some talent and I think this is a great overall “spot” for this new look side to be competitive. Note that San Antonio is just 14-16 ATS on the road, while New York is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a non-conference games. I’m grabbing the points.

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The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

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The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories to open the second half, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Portland posted the 113-99 road win in Brooklyn, while Philly held on for a 106-102 home win over Miami. The 76ers though play with revenge this afternoon after they lost 129-95 at Portland on December 30th. The Blazers average 113.3 PPG and they allow 110.1. The 76ers average 115.7 PPG and they allow 1112.

The pick: Note though that Philadelphia is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the visitors are still just 11-15 ATS on the road this year. I think the home side pulls away down the stretch for the convincing victory. Lay the short points.

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The set-up: The Thunder dropped their final game before the All Star break to the Pelicans, but previous to that they’d won four in a row. The Jazz lost to the Warriors in their final game before the break. Utah’s achilles heel this year has been its play on the road and I think that trend of futility comes back to haunt it again here vs. the rested and focused Thunder side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Utah is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Westbrook, George and the home side to all send an early message with a resounding effort. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Jayson Tatum of the Cetlics predicted that his team would win the Championship this year over the All Star break. Whether or not that bold prediction comes true will come with time, but I do think that the C’s can keep this one competitive, if not even take it outright. Boston scored the 118-110 home win over Detroit in its final game before the break, while Milwaukee earned the 106-97 road win over Indiana in its latest action. These teams have been competitive this year, having split two games thus far. Boston averages 113 PPG and it allows 106.6. The Bucks average 116.9 PPG and they allow 107.1. 

The pick: With Kyrie Irving expected to suit up tonight, the Celtics become even more dangerous in the first game back from the break. Note that the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Bucks are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange.

10* play

The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies.

10* play

The set-up: The Oilers come in off a 3-1 road loss in Carolina just last night. Edmonton has now lost nine of its last ten. Clearly the Oilers have many issues this year, but I think the visitors play with extreme desperation in the second game of the back-to-back. The Islanders have been rolling and are one of the surprise teams in the NHL this year, but with three whole nights off before a Western road swing, I think the home side get caught in a “trap” this evening. 

The pick: Take it for why you will as well, but the Oilers are 6-3 (+2.1 units) in their last nine after scoring one goal or less in their previous outing, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.4 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing. Lay the price, play on Edmonton the “puck line.” 

10* play

The set-up: Oklahoma enters off a 59-53 road loss to Baylor and I think it’s primed for another letdown here. TCU comes in focused after a tough 82-77 OT loss at home to No. 14 Kansas in its latest action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Horned Frogs, as the Sooners have won three straight in this series, including a 76-74 victory in the first matchup at home back in mid January. There’s no question that from a “situational” stand point, that this one sets up beautifully for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home overall, while Oklahoma is just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are red hot, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Buffalo enters at 21-3 and on two straight victories, while Toledo is 20-4 and in the midst of a five-game win skein. This however is a “revenge” game for Toledo after it was smoked 110-80 at Buffalo back on January 8th. The Rockets have played exceptionally since that setback and with a chance to avenge that pathetic effort, I do indeed expect the home side to step up and answer the call. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toledo is 7-2 ATS In its last nine at home, while Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Murray State comes in with plenty of momentum having won three straight, nost recently dispatching the SIU Edwardsville Cougars 86-55 on Saturday. Overall Murray State shot 52.9 percent from the floor and it also won the rebounding battle by 18-11. Ja Morant led the way in the win with 20 points, five boards, six assists, a block and a steal. Overall Murray State averages 82.7 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Austin Peay has won four straight, most recently holding on for a 94-86 victory over Eastern Illinois on Saturday. The Governors average 82.7 PPG, and they allow 71.3. 

The pick: Take it for what will though, but Murray State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning home records and I think the high-scoring Racers will improve on that trend and take advantage of an Austin Peay defense which ranks 181st in the country. Play on the visitors.

10* Play

The set-up: The Thunder will look to close the first half with another big win before then concentrating on the All Star game. The Pelicans are in complete free fall mode after their star Anthony Davis announced that he won’t re-sign with the team at the end of the year. The Pelicans have lost five of six and they’re firmly out of the playoff hunt on the season. Davis has only three points in his last game and it would appear as if he and his team have “thrown in the towel.” Russell Westbrook and Paul George though are breaking NBA records almost every other night. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that to continue here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 14-5 ATS already this year off a home victory, while New Orleans is only 13-14 ATS at home. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Miami is struggling right now and I think it’s ripe for the picking. The Heat have fallen into ninth spot in the East with a 25-30 record. Most recently Miami lost for a sixth time in seven games in its 103-87 setback in Denver. Overall Miami averages 105.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. However over its last ten games Miami has posted just 103.3 points per game over its last ten. The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from a 120-104 loss to Houston. The Mavs average 108.4 PPG and they allow 108.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is already only 4-9 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Anthony Davis won’t be playing for the Pelicans next year and while he’s also going to be playing limited minutes, he’ll still be a “man on a mission” as he looks to cement his resume before moving on. The Pelicans will be hungry here after their 99-90 loss on the road in Memphis. The Magic on the other hand look poised for a classic letdown in my opinion after their 124-108 road in Atlanta in their most recent action. The Magic average 105.2 PPG and they allow 107.5. The Pelicans average 115.8 PPG and they allow 114.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Western Conference, while New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS setback. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Purdue comes to town at 10-2 and in second place in the Conference. Maryland isn’t far behind though at 9-4 and it’ll be out for a little revenge here after it fell in a narrow 62-60 defeat to the Boilermakers in early December. Would anyone fault Purdue having a letdown here after eight straight victories, including one of the “rocking chair” variety in last Saturday’s 81-62 home win over Nebraska? Purdue averages 78.8 PPG and it allows 68.4. The Terps beat Nebraska 60-45 in their most recent action. The Terps lead the league in rebounding margin at +10.4, and they easily out rebounded the Huskers 53-38. From a situational stand point, i think this one definitely sets up great for the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog or pick, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS this season in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Jayhawks may have beaten lowly Oklahoma State last time out, but Kansas has still lost four of seven, thanks in large part to a heavily depleted roster. The Jayhawks started four freshman for just the second time in head coach Bill Self’s 16 year tenure in the win over the Cowboys and I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here, facing a Horned Frogs squad coming off one of its biggest victories in over ten years. TCU comes in off two straight victories, including a 92-83 win at Iowa State last time out, a victory over a ranked team on the road for the first time in 21 years! 

The pick: Clearly the momentum is in favor of the surging Frogs, but I’ll point out as well that they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a victory, while Kansas is still 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, play on TCU.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. The Kings fell 5-4 in OT to the Bruins on the road, while the Capitals lost 5-4 in OT to the Panthers at home. Previous to their loss in Boston though, the Kings had won three straight. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick is an astounding 9-2 with a 2.23 GAA lifetime vs. the Capitals. The defending champs come in on the other end of the spectrum as they’ve lost nine of their last 12. Caps’ net minder Braden Holtby is just 1-3 with a 2.51 ERA lifetime vs. the Kings.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing five goals or more in its previous contest, while Washington is just 1-5 in its last six after allowing five or more goals. This is a great price for the extra goal-and-a-half of insurance. Play on the Kings on the puck line.

10* play

The set-up: The Suns are looking to bounce back after a 117-107 home loss to the Warriors. The Kings look poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after their 102-96 home win over Miami on Friday. These teams have played twice already this year, and they’ve split those games, with the Suns taking the latest 115-111 at home on January 8th. Phoenix is absolutely desperate here to break its slide after 13 straight losses and while I’m not going to predict a SU victory here, I do think that the desperate visiting side can keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is already 3-1 ATS this year after ten or more consecutive losses, while Sacramento is just 4-7 ATS vs. the division and just 1-2 ATS after playing four straight home games. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

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The set-up: Both teams have struggled this year. Both teams comes in on losing streaks. The Yellow Jackets are the better defensive club, but not by much. Georgia Tech’s defense though looked pretty average in its 65-42 loss to Clemson last time out. Notre Dame beat Boston College, but then it lost at Miami, managing just 47 points in the setback. The Hurricanes aren’t the best defensively this year, but playing in their own building is never an easy task. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Irish though in my opinion. 

The pick: As note that ND is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to six points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two consecutive road games as an underdog, while GT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range. Lay the point, expect a blowout.

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The set-up: Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Cardinals look poised for a letdown after their very satisfying 72-64 road win over Virginia Tech. The Seminoles return him off a road victory over Syracuse. FSU won’t be taking anything for granted here after Louisville took two of three in the season series last year. The Cards average 78.8 PPG and they allow 68. The Seminoles though are 10-1 on their home floor and they average 77 points and allow 68.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Louisville is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a road win vs. a conference rival, while FSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: Indiana enters off a big upset win over Michigan State over the weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Iowa also comes in off a big win, downing No. 5 ranked Michigan. I believe though that the Hawkeyes will come in complacent here in this difficult road venues. The Hoosiers don’t have that luxury though, as they lost their first seven league games this year. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up perfectly for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with five or six days rest and only 10-14 ATS in its last 24 following a home win by ten points or more, while Indiana is 23-14 ATS in its last 37 as a home favorite and 3-1 ATS already this season after a victory by six points or less. Lay the points, expect a rout!

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The set-up: I base my picks on many things. This one is based almost entirely on “common sense.” The Hornets come in off an exhausting and heart-breaking 117-115 loss at home to the Clippers just last night and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here as well. The Mavs on the other hand have won two of their last three after easily dispatching the Cavaliers 111-98 on Saturday. Dallas took the first meeting between the clubs 122-84 on the road in the first matchup between the teams this year and I expect a similar final blowout here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Dallas is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 at home, while Charlotte is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with winning home records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* DALLAS. 

The set-up: Bowling Green dismantled WMU 79-48 at the Stroh Center back on January 19th and I think a similar final combined outcome is in the cards tonight as well. Bowling Green is rolling, going 11-1 in its last 12, it enters off its biggest win in a decade, pulling away for a victory over then No. 18 Buffalo last Friday. The Falcons know they can’t come in complacent here against a WMU team which is 0-8 in league play: 

“We don’t want to get to that place where we’re complacent and we think [winning] is just going to happen,” BG head coach Michael Huger noted. “You can’t play up or down to the opponent–you’ve got to play the same way every single time. It’s easier said than done. I can say it, but now we’ve got to go out and do it, and that’s the hard part.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 at home, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* BOWLING GREEN

The set-up: The story lines are well known. The Rams are the up and coming West Coast team that’s backed by a high-powered offense, while the Patriots are one of the most storied franchises in history. I’ve just never been fully convinced by this year’s version of the Patriots. Tom Brady and company beat the Chiefs at home earlier in the year, so the fact that they won last week doesn’t come as a huge surprise despite being the underdog. LA got blasted for 45 points in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the year, but the Rams’ defense came up huge in the 26-23 OT NFC Conference Championship victory. I simply feel that the Rams’ suddenly improving defense, combined with the “one, two” punch of Goff and Gurley will prove to be too much for Bill Belichick.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England 2-3 ATS this year already after two or more straight victories ATS, while LA is 3-1 ATS this year after two or more straight wins vs. the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

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The set-up: This is a revenge game for Minnesota after it fell 103-101 in Denver back in November. The Nuggets though come in “dog tired” in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, pulling away for a big 136-122 home win over Houston on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of the Wolves tonight.

The pick: It also sets up nicely for the Wolves from a trend based stand point, as note that Denver is just 5-8 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Minnesota is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog. I’m grabbing the points.

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The set-up: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 15-5 and the Ole Miss Rebels are 14-6. I can’t understate how important I think that the home floor advantage will be in this particular matchup. The Rebels upset Mississippi State 81-77 on the road on January 12th and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards on their home floor. The Rebels are 4-3 in league play and the Bulldogs are 3-4. Mississippi State comes in off a deflating 83-79 road defeat to Alabama and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up the same energy in this difficult arena. The Bulldogs have regressed defensively as well since the start of conference play. Overall they’re allowing 96.6 points per 100 possessions, but since the start of league action that’s ballooned to 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Ole Miss has lost three straight and it comes in off a tough 90-86 road loss to Florida, but as stated off the top, I think a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just just 3-5 ATS in its last eight revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Ole Miss is already 10-1 ATS this season as a favorite. Lay the short points.

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The set-up: Dallas has been a lot better on the road than at home this year and it had lost four of six previous to last night’s big win in The Big Apple. Can anyone say letdown spot? Detroit on the other hand has lost back-to-back games, including to these very Mavs just last week. From a situational stand point, this one is definitely being handed to the home side on a “silver platter” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after three consecutive non-conference games and just 1-2 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Detroit is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: UCLA rolled to a 90-69 win over Arizona at home in its latest action and I look for it to carry that momentum over here as well. Washington State on the other hand enters off a poor 78-58 loss on the road to Oregon and I think it’ll have a hard time containing the up-tempo Bruins. UCLA won’t be taking anything for granted here either as the win over the Wildcats would in fact snap a three-game slide. The Bruins aerate 78.3 PPG, while allowing 75.3. WSU has lost three straight and nine of its last ten. The Cougars average 77.4 PPG and they allow 77.9. 

The pick: Note that UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a SU/ATS win at home in which it scored 90 or more points in, while WSU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning SU records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

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The set-up: The Pelicans have to adjust to the idea that Anthony Davis will soon be leaving the team. He won’t be suiting up here. It’s going to be all hands on deck though as New Orleans tries to gain an identity moving forward. In this contest anyways, I think the Pelicans rally and at the very least, keep this one competitive against a Rockets team which I predict will get caught looking past its lowly opponent. The Pelicans’ have lost three straight, but Jrue Holiday looked decent after posting 29 points, seven boards and three assists in the losing effort. He’ll be leaned upon heavily moving forward. The Rockets continue to win, but it was anything but easy in their latest 103-98 victory over the lowly Magic at home. I think James Harden and company are starting to run out of gas and there’s no question in my mind that this one actually sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. 

The-pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 8-4 ATS this year trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 3-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC PELICANS

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly it’s not out of the question. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Both teams come in off wins. Toledo averages 80.6 PPG and it allows 69.2. Miami Ohio averages 73.4 PPG and it allows 70.2. 

The pick: From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Toledo is a poor 2-4 ATS on the road already this year, while Miami Ohio is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a home dog or pick. Grab the points.

10* MAC-ATTACK Miami Ohio.

The set-up: Am I calling for an outright upset? I’m not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive war than what this spread would suggest. Boston comes in off a loss to the red hot Warriors and now face one of the league’s other white hot teams in the Nets, who come to town on a six-game win streak, including a victory over the Knicks on Friday. The Celtics didn’t manage a win over the Warriors and I think a letdown here is imminent after that “close call.” From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the visitors in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Brooklyn is already 9-5 ATS this year off a home win and 5-1 ATS off a win vs. a division rival, while Boston is just 18-25 ATS in its last 43 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the end. 

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The set-up: Iowa State comes in hungry after its 80-76 setback at Kansas. Mississippi comes in off a loss as well, getting smoked 74-53 by Alabama. Previous to their latest loss though the Cyclones had won two in a row. Iowa State averages 78.5 PPG and it allows just 65.1. The Runnin Rebels are no slouches either, averaging 77.9 PPG and allowing 68.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game, while Mississippi is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite of thre points or less or pick. The Cyclones have been playing more consistently of late and I believe that translates into a “W” here.

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The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, an outright upset wouldn’t be a complete shock. I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, but I think this one will come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. After seven straight wins, complacency sets in for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE revenge game for the Bears as well! Brown had won six in a row before a loss to Yale last weekend. Suffice it to say, revenge is a dish best served cold. 

The pick: Yale won that game 70-67 and I expect another very competitive battle here as well. Additionally note that Brown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. good offensive teams which average 77 plus points per contest, while Yale is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per game. Grab the points.

10* Brown

The set-up: Belmont is 13-4 after beating Tennessee State 92-74 this past weekend. Overall Belmont is averaging 86.3 PPG, while holding the opposition to 66. Dylan Windler had 25 points, six boards and four assists in the most recent victory. Murray State has won seven straight, most recently pulling away for an 82-72 victory over SIU Edwardsville. The Racers are averaging 84 PPG and they’re allowing just 66. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bruins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while the Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records and 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 80 points or more in a SU victory in their last contest. Look for the home side to take advantage. Lay the points.

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The set-up: I think this a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog tonight. The Pelicans come in “under the radar” in my opinion. The Thunder enter off a 123-114 home win over the Blazers, but with two nights off before a game at home vs. the Bucks on Sunday night, I expect the home side to get caught looking past its opponent tonight. And who could fault the Thunder in doing so? They’re playing at home and facing a team playing without its superstar (Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is out) and coming off a game just last night. 

The pick: New Orleans though can put points on the board with the best of them. Note that the Pelicans average 117.1 PPG, while the Thunder average 114. Take it for what you will as well but the Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS this year as a home fav in the 6.5 to 12 points range. A great “situational” play on the Pelicans.

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The set-up: A couple of hungry non-conference teams collide on Wednesday night and I don’t think that the “home court advantage” can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Memphis comes in as the “hungrier” team here as it looks to snap a six-game losing streak. The Hornets look poised for a letdown though in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Charlotte averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Grizzlies averages only 100.6 PPG, while allowing 103.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though but memphis 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Charlotte is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest. I like Memphis to finally get off the schneid in this favorable home matchup. 

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The set-up: Ole Miss comes in off an 84-67 win over Arkansas in its latest action, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. Overall the Runnin Rebels average 79.4 PPG. The Tide come in as the “hungrier” team after their 71-68 loss to Tennessee. Alabama enters averaging 76 PPG. A date vs. the Rebels is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track though as Mississippi has covered in just five of its last 17 trips to Tuscaloosa. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a tight SU loss of 3 points or less. I’m banking on home court playing a big part in the outcome of this one. Play on Alabama.

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The set-up: The Jayhawks have to have a “short memory” here as they look to bounce back from a tough 65-64 defeat to Virginia over the weekend. The setback dropped Kansas into a four-way tie for the Big 12 lead. Iowa State is clearly no push over, but note that it’s won just one of its last 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. After a 72-59 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think the Cyclones stumble in this difficult road venue. Kansas plays with revenge here as well after falling 77-60 in Iowa State back on January 5th. Note that the Cyclones have not swept the season series between the schools since 2001. 

The pick: Additionally note that Iowa State is 35-16-3 ATS in its last 54 following a SU loss, while Iowa State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog. The situation and the trends/numbers both point to a home side blowout. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Outright victory? Clearly it’s not out of the question. I’m expecting a battle though obviously and am going to grab the points in the end. The Rockets come in off a 138-134 OT win over LA on Saturday, while Philly lost 117-115 to OKC in its most recent action. Houston is 6-4 overall in its last ten and it averages 112.6 PPG and it allows 110.5. But after their three-game win streak was snapped in dramatic fashion last time out, I think the 76ers are ripe for another letdown here. Overall Philadelphia averages 115.4 PPG and it allows 112.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the 76ers are a poor 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the Southwest division, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a war.

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The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* Chiefs. 

The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. After their 76-55 road win over Portland to move back to .500 in league play (2-2), I believe the Toreros will suffer a predictable letdown here. The Gaels improved to 3-1 in conference action after an impressive home win over Santa Clara last time out. Overall San Diego averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 67.7. Saint Mary’s is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 65.6. The Gaels have quietly been playing a lot better with three straight wins and I believe they carry that momentum over here vs. this now complacent San Diego side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Mary’s is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while SD is 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

10* St Marys

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. I think home court will prove to be the difference maker for the hungry Pacers though. Dallas lost 105-101 at home to the Spurs on Wednesday most recently, while Indiana lost 120-96 at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. While they haven’t played yet this year, the Mavs have won three straight in the series, including a 109-103 victory in the latest back on Feb. 26th, 2018. The Mavs though have dropped five of their last seven and overall they’re just 11-11 ATS on the road. Dallas averages 109.8 PPG and it allows 109.7. Indiana is 11-10 ATS at home. Overall the Pacers average 108.7 PPG though, while allowing just 103.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Indiana is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

10* PACERS

The set-up: I think 7-10 LBSU is severely overmatched here. The UC Irvine Anteaters enter at 14-4 overall. LBSU averages 75 PPG and it’s allowing 76. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deishaun Booker has been a bright spot by averaging 15 PPG though. UC Irvine averages 70 PPG, but it allows just 64. The Anteaters are deep and talented are hitting 44 percent from the floor as a team thus far. 

The pick: Additionally note that LBSU is a poor 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after playing its previous game as the favorite, while UC Irvine is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite or pick. Lay the points.

*10 UCI

The set-up: The Blazers come in off a 116-113 loss in Denver last night. I think the Blazers though regroup quickly and get back to their winning ways in this favorable matchup on Monday night. Note that despite the loss to the red hot Nuggets, Portland still won the turnover and rebounding battle, while shooting a very respectable 45.5 percent from the floor overall. The Kings come in off a satisfying win over the Hornets in their last outing, but I think they’ll struggle in this conference match-up. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have been simply terrible in this spot for bettors, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. the Western Conference. Look for Portland’s depth to prove to be too much for the Kings to keep up to down the stretch. Grab the points.

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