The Saints and Panthers meet up in a key NFC South match up. If last week is anything to go by, the Saints will rely on the arm of Carr to put up points, hopefully more than last week's 16.  For the Panthers, it will be all about the run as newbie QB Young looks like he will need some time to adjust.  Both of these teams faced run-heavy teams in game one.  The Saints held King Henry to 4.3/63 yards. Carolina allowed 130 yds rushing to the Falcons. The Saints pass defense ate up Tannehill and Co. last week.  Facing rookie Bryce Young, who finished with a passer rating of under 50, it will be no contest.  The Panthers allowed Ridder a 111 rating, even when sacking him 4 times.

Carr looked effective if turnover-prone, throwing for 282 passing yards, with a Passer Rating of 96.  He was harried especially in the first half, but put up impressive totals in yards if not points none the less.  The Saints will have to improve on passer protection as Carr was sacked 4 times. He has very good targets this year, including a very speedy rookie in Shaheed.  With Carolina missing a key CB in Horn, the Saints will be able to move the ball in the air effectively.  It is hard to see where Carolina's points will come from on Sunday.  New Orleans gave up zero rush and pass TDs last week, and this is not a strong offense. The favored Saints should win and cover in Prime Time on Monday night.

Burnley’s start to the season has been unkind.  They have surrendered the most goals in the EPL so far this season and have only played 3 games (almost everyone else has played 5).  They are also last in 1st half and 2nd half goals surrendered.  They have had some scheduling bad luck, but still, they are averaging more than 3 goals against per game. 

Notts Forest are unbeaten in their last 4 at home (Brighton, Southampton, Arsenal, Sheffield U.).  They are 8th in goals for in the 1st half and the 2nd half.  2022 signing Awonyi has scored or assisted in each of his last 8 games (9 goals).  They are so direct in their attacking that only West Ham moves the ball upfield at a faster rate. 

All four of the major prediction services predict a Forest win.  Their return to the EPL has been difficult and this one is not going to be any easier as Forest is still flying after their win over Chelsea before the break.  Lay the fraction of a point and play Forest on this one. 

Tua is the talk of the town after that massive pass attack in Week one.  The Dolphins will face a much tougher defense on Sunday and he is unlikely to get as much time or as little pressure in Week two.  Let's bear in mind that the Dolphins barely won the game, had little running game and the defense really struggled, especially vs the run.  New England's offense including Jones, impressed in week one.  They were unlucky to lose against a tough Eagles team, but as far as Jones' passing game goes, I am still not sold.  Is the Dolphins' defense really as poor as they looked in week one? They were projected to be much improved this year. I believe that adjustments can and will be made, but they are up against Belichik who will have a very considered game plan.  The Dolphins are a small favorite today.  The Patriots' offense does not have the dynamism of the Chargers and with Tua healthy and his fine targets ready, the Dolphins can really score in a hurry.   I believe the Dolphins offense will be very tough to slowdown this early in the season.  Take Miami  to  win and cover.

As dominant as the Rams were in game one vs the Seahawks, their chances of upsetting the 49ers are slim.  Stafford had a field day vs Seattle but was very well protected (0 sacks).  It is highly unlikely that Stafford will have near as much time to operate on Sunday.  The Rams again don't appear to be focusing on the run again this year, and even if they did, SF is very tough on the ground.  The 49ers had 5 sacks last week, and Stafford is not the most mobile of passers.  Purdy, on the other hand, saw a lot of TJ Watt last week, was sacked 3 times, but he still finished with a very solid game, ending with a 111 passer rating.  Purdy has, as we know, great targets,and he put to rest some of the concerns about his success this year. The 49ers ran for 144 yards with McCaffrey leading the way.  He has been a huge thorn in the side of the Rams in past meetings.  The lack of a Rams run game, and the toughness and skill of the 49ers as a complete entity will be more than the Rams can handle.  Look for SF to  give Purdy better protection, and take SF to win and cover.

The Packers appeared the more impressive team in Week One, but played against an arguably weaker opponent and may have key players sitting this week. Both young QBs ended with solid ratings.  Ridder was accurate, but relied heavily on a very short game with just 91 yards passing.  The Falcon's' O line did not support him well, allowing four sacks, but is a good bet for improvement in Game 2.  Love looked very good in the second half, had plenty of time, but completed just 55% of his passes.  He will face much more pressure this week from Atlanta's defense. The Falcons  effectively shut down the Panthers' pass attack, albeit against a rookie QB, last week.

The Falcons' run-centric offense with Allgeier and Robinson was very effective last week (130 yards rushing/ 5 yards per carry)  The Packers weren't great against the run, allowing the Bears 122 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt.  The potential loss or compromise  of Green Bay's RB Jones is very significant.  He was the driving force last week for the Packers and won't easily be replaced, as Dillon was ineffective last week.  This could be a very close game, but Packers' injuries  and the Falcons' new and improved defense will make the difference.  take the Falcons to win and cover.

Arsenal has had a successful, although uninspiring start to this EPL campaign.  They were fortunate to win late vs. Man U, struggled to fend off Palace by one goal, tied Fulham at home and beat Notts Forest by only one.  Along the way they have fought their way to the 2nd best goals against record in the EPL.  When you put that stat next to Everton’s league worst goals for record, it is hard to look past that. 

Everton is looking like a threat to be a relegation club after losing to unimpressive Fulham and Wolves, drawing Sheffield and getting clobbered by Villa.  In their last 6 at home, they have lost 5, scoring 2 and giving up 13.  Even though Arsenal has struggled at Everton historically, this looks like the season they overcome that trend.  Although Everton has created many chances in their games so far (their actual goals is less than their expected goals by more than any other club), they are coming up against a defensive powerhouse that has just started to see Rice and Zinchenko round into form.  And at the other end of the park Saka and Oedegaard have been dominant, and Jesus has 8 goals in 9 games vs. Everton.  Arsenal’s goal creating actions/90 is behind only Brighton and Man City (while Everton’s is tied for last).  Things are going to get worse for Everton before they get better.  Lay the goals and play Arsenal on this one.

Facing the White Sox in Chicago, the Twins have taken the first two games, outscoring their opponents 20-4.  Will we see three routs in three games?  It is entirely possible, if Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently.  The Twins right hander has a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 14 in his last appearance.  He has a ton of innings under his belt at this point in the season, but he seems to be handling the work.  Lopez is very good on the road.  A very uneven Toussaint starts for the White Sox.  He lasted only a single inning last time out, allowing 8 runs, but was effective in his three previous starts.  His ERA is much worse when pitching in Chicago. Toussaint will face a hard-hitting squad on Saturday.  The Twins are third in the league over the last two weeks at .266 BA /.824 OPS.  The Sox are enmired in 29th place at the moment at .223/.603. The Twins have really roughed up the Sox'  very lackluster bullpen in the last two games.   Leading 5-0 in games vs the Sox this season, I think you can tack on another win for 6-0.  Take the Twins on the run line to win.

Tennessee is ranked No. 11 in the country at 2-0, while the Florida Gators enter at 1-1. Tennessee is off ht 30-13 win over FCS Opponent Austin Peay, not even coming close to covering the ridiculous 48-point spread.

Florida is also off a blowout win over an FCS Opponent, smashing McNeese State by a score of 49-7 as a 48.5-point favorite.

These teams met last year and the Vols managed the 38-33 shootout win at home, but now it's payback time for the Gators. That said, while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Tennessee is led by Joe Milton, who has 429 yards passing and 4:0 TD:INT so far. But the Vols looked poor defensively overall to a weak team, allowing 260 passing yards to Austin Peay. 

Florida finished with 327 yards on the ground last week. QB Graham Mertz has two passing TD's so far. The Gators' defense has been great, so far allowing 191 YPG. 

Milton has never lived up to expectations throughout his now six year career, and I think he'll struggle to cover this spread.

Grab the points, the play is Florida.

Brighton is part of the new wave and have only lost one game so far (to another up-and-coming club, West Ham).  They have done it with attacking football.  ManU is always expected to do well, especially at home.  So far they have lost two and only beat minnows, Fulham and Wolves by one goal each. 

Usually ManU has a stout defense at home but will be missing Shaw on the back line and Varane is questionable.  But ManU is 6th in the EPL in saves so lots of shots are getting through.  ManU is still without Mount and now will also be missing Antony as well for their attack which was already middle of the pack in shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches.  Sancho has been out of favor as well but may have worked his way back for this game.

Brighton is in sharp contrast to this as they lead the EPL in goals for, shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches.  Brighton is one of the most creative attacking sides in the EPL and they will have a chance to exploit a hurting and vulnerable ManU defence.

Add to this that Brighton has won 3 and tied one of their last 4 head-to-head matches and you have a clincher for choosing Brighton to take the points offered and win the game. 

This is a very different Wolves team than the one that took down Liverpool in Feb/23. Gone are Nunes, Jimenez, Traore, Coady, Neves, Moutinho and Costa.  Cunha is the lone goal scorer among the newcomers.  This season Liverpool is 3-0-1 with 9 goals for and 3 against while Wolves are 1-3-0 with 4 goals for and 8 against.  Wolves are leaky at the back and Liverpool is one of the best attacking clubs in the world. 

Liverpool may be missing 2 or 3 of their first team backline so they could give up a goal but will be too much for Wolves to handle when they attack.  Liverpool dominated the strong attacking Villa with a limited back line before the break so they shouldn’t be troubled with the Wolves’ attack this week. Lay the goals and take Liverpool.

UTSA won this game by a score of 41-38 in OT last year, barely covering the two-point spread. Here we are a year later and the Roadrunners are much bigger favs, but not nearly big enough in my opinion. 

Army lost 17-13 to Louisiana Monroe, and then followed it up with a 57-0 win over FCS Delaware State. The Black Knights though have more questions than answers still. 

The Roadrunners started the year with a 17-14 loss to Houston, before then responding with the 20-13 win over Texas State in Week 2. 

UTSA starting QB Frank Harris could be sidelined with injury in this one, but even if he is out I still like the home side to not only win this matchup, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Roadrunners looked sharp on defense last week, holding Texas State to just 242 yards of offense. The defense also looked great in the loss to Houston, and I believe the unit will be the difference-maker in this one.

It's "Next Man Up" for the Roadrunners, and I expect everyone else to help shoulder the load as well here.

Lay the points, the play is UTSA.

The Eagles won unconvincingly in week one vs the Patriots.  The Vikings stumbled to a loss against a projected weaker opponent in the Bucs in their first game.  The Vikings put up a ton of passing yards, as usual, but weren't great in the red zone and gave up the ball three times.  They barely attempted a run game, finishing with just 41 yds on 17 attempts.  A one dimensional offense will be an issue against the Eagles' likely formidable pass pressure.  Philadelphia will be down a running back, but do have other options including, of course, Hurts.  The Vikings project to be a much softer defense than the Eagles' Game One opponent.  The Vikings allowed 25 points last week and Hurts and the Eagles will be a large step up from Mayfield's Buccaneer offense.  Cousins is notorious for poor play in the limelight.  Much like last year, the Eagles, after an underwhelming game one, again face  the Vikings at home.  Look for a similar outcome as the Eagles win and cover.

The Dodgers are better than the Padres overall, better at home than the Padres on the road, marginally better at the plate over the last 15 days, have a superior bullpen and their runs/ 9 innings differential is also superior. 

What they don’t have is a superior probable starter for late Tuesday night.  Probable starter Wacha for the Padres is having an outstanding season even though his club has failed to meet expectations.  He has a 2.99 ERA (2.00 over the last 5 games), an 11-3 record (3-1 over the last 5 games) and a 1.17 WHIP.  Lynn, the probable starter for the Dodgers has a 6.06 ERA (10.80 over the last 3 games), a 10-11 record (2-2 over the last 5 games) and a 1.46 WHIP.  Furthermore, Wacha has a 3.65 ERA in his road starts while Lynn has a 5.86 ERA in his home starts. 

Even though the Dodgers bullpen has more quality the game will be over by the time it comes into play and the Padres bullpen is good enough to hold the fort after the starters have left the mound.  Take the runs and the Padres for the win. 

The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home.  The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite.  Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season.  While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR.  With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season.  The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted.  This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week.  Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp.  The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday.  Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily.

The Cardinals in absolute rebuild mode, are without their starting QB, did not add to last year's dismal pass defense, and have 11 rookies on the roster.  Dobbs will likely start under center, so expect a run-focused offense from the Cardinals.  Meanwhile the Commanders have a sold out opener,  3 straight victories in preseason, if you are counting, and a projected very tough defense.  Washington doesn't yet know what they have in Howell but the 2nd year pro is very mobile  at least, and he has great targets, especially if McLaurin is playing.  At their best last year, the Commanders ground out wins with a relentless rush offense, but very little dynamism in the air. Howell, while remaining a question mark,  looks to be an improvement.  The Commanders' defense especially  the pass rush will over-match the Cardinal' shaky offense on Sunday.  Take Washington, with the crowd, to win and cover.

Texas beat Rice 37-10 in its opener last week. Last year the Longhorns went 8-5 overall, including just 2-2 on the road. Texas though is favored to win the Big 12 conference title this season. The Crimson Tide enter 1-0 as well after handling MTSU last week. Alabama is predicted to finish second to Georgia in the SEC this year. That said, Bama was 11-2 last year, including 7-0 at home. This is obviously a huge game, as this is the type of victory that will really help the resume at the end of the year when it comes to the CFP. I just think that Quinn Ewers will have some opportunities to keep his team competitive throughout. The defense will be better this year than last as well with the majority of the unit returning which finished second overall in the Big 12 last year. QB Jalen Milroe has big shoes to fill for the Tide. He had 242 yards and five TD's last week. The defense is once again a strength as well, but there's still some question marks surrounding this year's version of the Tide. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I think this one "comes down to the wire." Grab the points and Texas.

The Aggies are 1-1, while Liberty is 1-0. Last year New Mexico State was 7-6, while the Flames finished 8-5. 

The Aggies are coming off a 58-21 win over Western Illinois, and I think they can carry that momentum over here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a tight battle here in my opinion (they had 438 yards of offense in the second half alone!) Diego Pavia had 317 yards passing and two TD's. 

Liberty managed the 34-24 win over Bowling Green, but I believe it'll have a much harder time containing the visiting side today. QB Kaidon Salter finished with 143 yards passing and two TD's. 

The Flames had five INT's, but everything points to a much more competitive affair here between conference opponents. 

New Mexico State won this game 49-14 last year. I'm not calling for the outright as I said, but I'm definitely grabbing the points!

Purdue got upset by Fresno State last weekend, and I think it'll struggle again here on the road in this difficult venue. 

Virginia Tech beat ODU 36-17 and in my opinion, the Hokies are going to move to 2-0 after this contest. 

But the Boilermakers were just a complete mess, losing the battle of the clock by 13 minutes, while going just 3 of 12 on third down. QB Hudson Card was inept, averaging just 3.6 yards on 30 attempts.

VT QB Grant Wells had three passing TDs and one running TD last week, and I believe he'll be a difference-maker this weekend. 

Not only do I expect VT to win this game, but I believe it'll do so in blowout fashion.

The Utah Utes are 1-0 after Week 1, while the Baylor Bears are 0-1. 

The Bears were stunned by Texas State, while Utah pulled away for a victory over Miami. 

Utah QB Cameron Rising did not play in last week's 24-11 home win. Bryson Barnes was adequate in filling in, finishing with 159 yards and a TD. The ground game managed only 105 rushing yards.

The defense looked good, and last year the unit allowed 24 points. 

Baylor though will be pushing the pace of this one from the outset after the 42-31 ssetback to Texas State. QB Blake Shapen was inured, meaning that QB Sawyer Robertson will now get the start here. He'll be leaning heavily on the run game and Richard Reese, who averaged 4.9 YPC last season. Baylor's defense was also decent last year, ranked 80th overall in the country by allowing 26.6 PPG. 

I think we'll see a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is Baylor.

Both teams enter 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS. Illinois is coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo, while Kansas defeated Missouri State 48-17. Illinois was a 7-point favorite, while the Jayhawks were 32.5-point favorites. Illinois had the nation's No. 1 defense last year, but the unit just conceded 28 to Toledo, but we can expect a more solid performance this time around. Illinois had a lot of turnover, but with that first game out of the way, combined with a win, I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Luke Altmyer finished with 211 yards and two TD's. Jalon Daniels sat out last week, but he's expected back in the lineup for the Jayhawks this week, but he'll need time to adjust. Defense is an issue for the Jayhawks, last year they allowed 35.5 PPG, worst in the Big 12. While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The Chiefs have now won the Super Bowl in two out of the last four years and I think they carry over that momentum here on Opening night. The Lions took a big step forward last year and the expectations could not be higher in Detroit. 

Of these two teams though, it's the Lions that I feel could suffer a big letdown this year. 

There are still plenty of question marks about this Detroit defense, and despite Patrick Mahomes having some new faces in his offense, I just can't see the Chiefs floundering here on Opening Night. In fact, I expect the opposite, as they look to run up the score early and take control of this one from the "get go." 

With back-to-back home games after this vs. Seattle and Atlanta, I say Detroit gets caught looking ahead. 

Lay the points, the play is KC.

The D-backs are  just 4-6, with pitching woes.  Ryne Nelson was just reactivated after a pair of very poor starts in early August sent him back to the minors.  He can struggle in the early innings and gave up far too many HRs in July and August.  He will face a hot Cubs' starter in Assad.  He is off his best and longest outing since converting to starting in August, pitching 8 innings of shutout ball.  Assad held the opposition to a .198 BA last month.  The 6-4 Cubs are holding down a wild card spot at the moment.  They are a good home team and tough against right handers.  Chicago has a very healthy run differential lately, and a solid bullpen.  The D-back as of Wednesday AM are just 2.7/5.4 in runs for and against.  Arizona is very short on starting pitching, hence the Nelson call-up.  They've had too many short outings from their starters, resulting in bullpen overload.  Take Assad and the Cubs to win the opener.  Chicago on the run line at -1.5.

The Jays’ playoff hopes are hanging on for dear life over this nine-game stretch against bottom feeders.  So far, they are 4-1 and they need this next game (and the next 3 after that). 

Although his last start was good, probable starter Sears for the A’s had an 8.25 ERA and 2.13 WHIP for August.  Probable starter Ryu has been rounding back into form since his return to action August 1st.  His August ERA was 2.25 and his WHIP was 1.00.  And after he finishes his consistent 5 innings his bullpen has a solid roster of next-man-up relievers that have been outstanding for the Jays this season.

At the plate the Jays are in the top fifth of the majors against lefthanders and over the last 15 days in avg. and OPS.  The A’s are in the bottom fifth of the majors in both instances.  They are also 8-22 as a home dawg this season.  Lay the runs and take the Blue Jays on this one.

The Blue Jays’ probable starting pitcher, Bassitt, is really peaking at the right time as the Jays make their final push.  In his last three starts his ERA is down to 2.75 and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.86.  In the other clubhouse, probable starter, Waldichuk, moved back into the rotation July 9th after a stint in the bullpen.  There have been mixed results as he, along with his team have struggled.  In his last three starts his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.38.  His biggest problem is going to be facing a Jays’ batting order that has feasted on LH starters this season with the 3rd best avg. and the 8th best OPS.  In the last 15 days the Jays have continued to be hot as they are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS while the A’s are in the bottom ½ of the majors.  But against RHP the A’s are dead last in the majors.

With a 7-20 record against teams with a winning record in the last ½ of the season and an 8-21 record as a home dawg don’t look for success in this one vs. the Jays.  Lay the runs and go with the Jays.

Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles' highly touted young right hander has come into his own in August, pitching 6 innings on average, with a  2.64 ERA and a .187 OP BA in five starts.  He will face a real newbie, The Angels' Rosenberg, with just 2 starts under his belt.  He has given up five runs over seven innings with seven walks.  The Orioles are a tough match-up, hitting in the top five, with a .294 BA/.811 OPS.  The Angels , facing a much tougher starter on Monday, are .238/.738  over the same time period. LA was just swept by the A's, outscored 21-9.  A bullpen struggling to a 7.58 ERA in the last 10 games won't help win many games.  Baltimore is an excellent road team, with a terrific bullpen, fighting to stay tops in the AL East.  This really should be the O's game for the taking. I am wagering on the Orioles to win on the Run line at -1.5.

Clemson didn't lose a single ACC game last year, bu it lost non-conference matchups vs. Notre Dame, South Carolina and then it also lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. 

Duke was no slouch either though last season, finishing 9-4, capped off with a win over UCF in the Military Bowl. 

Clemson is a powerhouse and Cade Klubnik now has big shoes to fill. He has plenty of weapons though, but I just feel that Duke will be able to keep pace and stay competitive late.

I'm not calling for the outright upset, but with Mike Elko directing the show for Duke, I absolutely don't expect this to be a "cake walk" for the visiting side.

Riley Leonard is an exceptional and versatile QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker here on Monday night.

As stated above, no outright win, but this is a few too many points for Clemson to be covering out of the gate vs. such a talented conference oppoent.

Grab the points, the play is Duke.

I like No. 5 LSU to figure out a way to secure the win and cover here on the road at No. 8 Florida State. LSU went 10-4 last year, averaging 34.5 PPG, and allowing just 22.5. 

The Seminoles finished 10-3 and averaged 36.1 PPG, while allowing 20.6. 

This though is actually a revenge game after FSU won 24-23 as a 4-point dog on the road in the first game of the year last season. 

LSU QB Jayden Daniels will prove to be just too much for this still strong FSU defensive unit. 

Brian Kelly plays well a favorite and everything in my opinion points to a comfortable win and cover in this rvenge scenario.

Lay the short points, because the play is LSU.

Villa lost to Newcastle 5-1 to start their season.  Liverpool just beat Newcastle with 10 men.  That alone is pretty convincing stuff.  Add to it that the Reds are 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs. Villa, are unbeaten in their last 13 at home and unbeaten in their last 14 in the EPL and you have the makings of a tough outing at Anfield for Villa. Two of four of the top predictors pick Liverpool in this one while the other two call for a high scoring draw. 

The problem is, Villa have played Liverpool tough at Anfield.  Only ManU and Chelsea have more wins at Anfield.  Watkins has 5 goals vs. Liverpool which is tied for his highest tally against an EPL club.  Villa has averaged 3 goals/game in their last 6.  Liverpool has endured extended periods of serious pressure in all of their EPL matches this season.  Villa has the firepower to take advantage of that especially with van Dijk and Konate out and Alexander-Arnold’s vulnerabilities revealed by being moved to midfield for England due to defensive deficiencies.  Liverpool is vulnerable.  Take the goals on offer for Villa and you win if the draw happens and are covered if Liverpool sneaks out a one goal miracle again.   

Last season Nevada went just 2-10, and while the Wolf Pack will assuredly be better this season, I still think they're in way over their heads here on the road in this difficult venue. Brendan Lewis is now the man under center for Nevada, coming over from Colorado, and he doesn't have a lot to work with. The defense was an absolute disaster last year, and it's once again expected to be the weakest point of the team this season. USC is off a rocking chair victory over San Jose State, winning but not covering. But now I for sure like USC to fire on all cylinders here over each drive, and to bury the Wolf Pack over the first three quarters, before making way for the backups and younger kids to get some valuable playing time. QB Caleb Williams had 278 yards and four TD's last week, and I expect him to be a difference-maker this weekend as well. Lay the points.

Brentford and Bournemouth are heading in different directions these days.  It’s surprising that the sportsbooks still offer such good value for you to make use of.  In their last 5 head-to-head Brentford holds a 4-1-1 advantage.  In their last 19 at home Brentford is 10-2-7.  Bournemouth has no wins in their first three to start this season, is an abysmal 0-6-1 in their last 7 and their only 2 wins in their last 10 EPL games were against now relegated clubs. 

Unsurprisingly 4 of the top predictors pick Brentford to win handily.  Bournemouth’s shortcomings mostly stem from backline problems that make them too easy to break down.  This has led to an average of almost 2 goals against in their last 10 EPL games.  When you add that to there being only 4 EPL clubs with worse stats comparing actual goals to the X-goals model you have a recipe for failure.  It’s not surprising that they have the 2nd worst goals against record in the EPL this season.  They also have the 3rd worst goals created actions/90 min in the EPL so there isn’t a lot out there for possible improved goal production.  This should be a very good play to take Brentford on the money line for this one.

The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Twins, but they will have their hands full against the surging Rays, especially with Glasnow on the mound. He bounced back from his only truly poor start in 10 appearances with a 1 hit 6 run effort against the Yankees. His OP. BA in August was .182, even including that sub-par outing. He will face Cal Quantrill who has had a lost year in 2023. Starting for the first time since the beginning of July, he didn't pitch well in his early starts, and his rehab outings weren't entirely promising. Tampa is 8-2 L10 games, 18-7 as a road favorite, and sporting a very fine 5.3/2.9 runs for and against in their last 7 games. They've climbed back into the top 5 in offense, with a .297/.855 OPS line over the last two weeks. The Guardians are not hitting well at .228/.675 OPS in the same time frame. Both teams have solid pens, but this game could be decided in the early innings. Take the Rays on the run line at - 1.5.

We have an interstate matchup here between two teams that are looking to take a big step forward this season. Both likely will, but I still think this is too many points for Michigan State to cover in Week 1. CMU was 4-8 overall last year. Head coach Jim McElwain once again has a tough non-conference schedule ahead of him this year, with upcoming games vs. No. 13 Notre Dame in Week 3 on the horizon with others. Bert Emmanuel is expected to be the starting QB for the Chips this year, and he's a true dual threat who will be able to exploit this poor MSU defense. The Chips weakness is on the defensive end as well, but they catch a break here in Week 1 facing this unproven MSU offense. The Spartans finished 5-7 and missed out on a bowl game. Noah Kim is the man under center to start, and last year he went 14 of 19 for 174 yards. MSU was ranked 82nd defensively, allowing an average of 237.9 YPG through the air. MSU's terrible defensive play will allow the Chips to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Central Michigan.

Luton Town finally gets a home game in the EPL after a long wait and a chance to earn their first points in their return to the Premiership.  They finally won (against a League 2 club in a nailbiter) but are coming off only 2 days of rest and so some might be suffering the effects.  Unfortunately, they are against the red-hot Hammers who soundly beat the two teams Luton lost to (Brighton and Chelsea).  Luton is a little light on the backline as they have 3 out to injury so they may be hard-pressed to deal with West Ham’s strong counter-attacking form.

West Ham has attackers Bowen and Ward-Prowse in form and has added Kudus who is fresh off a hat-trick in his last game with Ajax.  West Ham has scored the 3rd most goals in the EPL, while Luton town have conceded the most goals (in only two matches).  The Hammers Xgoal- diff/90 is +0.21 while Luton’s is -2.16.  This all adds up to a bleak outlook for the hometown Luton and all the reasons lined up to lay the goals and take West Ham.

I think Nebraka is going to be a lot better this year, and I think that Minnesota is going to take a step back, but here in Week 1, I still think that the Gophers run game and re-worked defensive unit will be too much for Matt Rhule's team to handle down the stretch. QB Jeff Sims tranferred over from Georgia Tech for Nebraska and while he has plenty of talent, that chemistry will for sure take time to develop. The Gophers won this game 20-13 last year, but I'm expecting a bigger final discrepancy this time around. Minnesota does have a star in RB Sean Tyler as well. I see this one getting out of hand late, so lay the points on the Gophers.

The Marlins have only scored more than 2 runs twice in 10 games, and those were  3 and  4 run totals. Monday's game features the same pitchers from just five days ago which resulted in the Nationals' 7-4 win.  Adon was very good for Washington in that game, but that has not always been the case in his short tenure. Braxton Garrett starts for Miami.  He has been a solid starter for Miami this season but has given up 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts.  The Nationals have been on a tear in August and have a somewhat more effective offense than Miami's faltering one.  It is hard to know how Adon will respond after such a fine start, but there are few teams who are less of a threat with the bats than Miami.  The Marlins are a bit of an unexpected favorite, which makes the Nationals a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take The Nats, who are an impressive 4-0 on Adon's starts, to keep this one close.  Washington +1.5

The probable starter for the Athletics, Neal, will be starting his 8th game in his 4th season of very sparse appearances (102 innings total).  His stats are what you’d expect with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over 6 appearances (1 start) in August.  He is really being thrown to the wolves here against a Mariners team that is 1st in the majors in avg. and 2nd in OPS who have averaged 8 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games.  Over that same stretch the Athletics have averaged 4 runs/ 9 innings.  That’s a pretty big cushion for a point spread play.

We haven’t even mentioned probable starter Miller for the Mariners who won two games vs. Oakland in May and has a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 5 starts. 

Add to that a Mariners team with a 9-1 record over their last 10 and an 8-2 advantage in their last 10 head-to-head with the Athletics and you have many reasons to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

While the Padres have struggled, the Cardinals at 2-8 are even worse at the moment.  Wainwright, stuck at 198 wins, just can't seem rescue his season.  His ERA is very high in August, an insult to his success and longevity.  Getting 199 today won't be easy as he will square off against one of the best pitchers this year in Blake Snell.  Snell will give you 6 innings on average, with a 2.77 ERA over his last 7 starts.  He has a .194 OP BA over the last two months.  Even if Wainwright should pitch well, there is every chance the Cards won't deliver on offense.  They are hitting a miserable .175/.543 over the last week, dead last in the MLB, and the bullpen has an ugly 6.82 ERA.  The Padres are just barely surpassing St. Louis on offense, but other than in Sunday's game, they have been getting acceptable relief pitching.  Take the Padres to ruin Wainwright's day.  San Diego on the run line at -1.5.

The Mariners are very hot in August, now earning a share of first in their division.  They crushed the Royals last night and were able to rest their top relievers in that game.  Castillo has pitched well this season but especially at home.  He struggled somewhat vs the Royals just a couple of starts ago giving up 4 runs over 7 innings, but based on past performance is a good candidate to improve on that performance.  He'll face Royals' rookie Marsh, who has pitched effectively in his last appearances, including against the Mariners recently.  He has been limited to about 5 innings in length,  allowing plenty of access to the Royals' faulty bullpen.

KC is 9-15 in August and exceptionally poor vs right-handers.  Their offense had a brief period  in the limelight, but has sunk to .200 BA/.651 OPS over the last two weeks.  Runs for and against tells the tale of these two teams.  The Royals are 3.7/6.1 over their last 7 games; the M's are an amazing 9.0/3.7 , reflecting a .327 BA/1.003 OPS line.  Take the Mariners to win by a solid margin at home. Seattle -1.5

Game two of their away series could go sour for the Cardinals team. The Phillies, who have put themselves in the running for a Wild Card spot and who are seeing the ball very well lately (.305 BA/.988 OPS L7days),  are far out-hitting the Cards at .230/.656.  Nola starts for the Phillies.  He has been sharp when pitching at home with an ERA nearly 2 runs less than in away games.  He was terrific last time out and has allowed just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 home starts.  Drew Rom will start just his second MLB game on Sunday.  Game one did not go at all well, and the Phillies likely won't be handing out any brotherly love.  Relief pitching has been a big plus for the Phillies lately.  At 2.73 ERA over the last ten games the Phillies pen has an ERA of half that of their Cards counterparts.  Runs for and against tell the story of these two teams.  The Phillies are a sharp 7.0/4.6 last seven games.  The Cards are 3.1/7.3.  Take the Phillies on the run line on Sunday.

Here we go with another College Football season and I'll look to pick up right where I left off from last season. Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last year. Kill has a knack of turning programs around, and I see more progression this season. Here's a great opponent to hammer on early and work out some stuff. Last year Diego Pavia was a true dual threat QB, while the defense was the biggest surprise, finishing 30th overall in the country. New Mexico State is only ranked 122nd, and UMass is significantly lower than that. Look for the Aggies to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with New Mexico State.

The Big Cats are playing Saturday in Vancouver but only one of them really has any claws.  The Lions almost made a comeback in week 10 vs. the Riders while the Ti-Cats offered up the first win of the season for the lowly Elks.  The Lions are 2-0 after a straight up loss this season and have outscored their opponents 72-28 in those two games.  Both of those games were in Vancouver.

In their last 2 games the Ti-Cats have averaged 210 yds passing/game while the Lions have averaged 388 yds passing/game.  3rd string QB Powell threw a TD pass his first game in relief back on July 13th, but since then he has started 3 games and thrown 3 INTs and no more TD passes. 

There are also some stark contrasts in team stats between the two squads.  The Lions are 3rd in the CFL in avg points/game while the Ti-Cats are 9th in avg points against/game.  The Lions are 2nd in net offence/game while the Ti-Cats are 8th in opposition net offence/game.  The Lions are 1st in avg passing yds/game while the Ti-Cats are 7th in opposition passing yds/game.  I could go on how high the Lions’ defence is in key stats and how low the Ti-Cats’ offence is in the related category, but I won’t.  You get it.  This is a mismatch and you should clearly lay the points and go with the Lions. 

This should be a pitchers’ duel for the first six innings or so between these two veteran hurlers.  Probable starter for the Mets, southpaw Quintana has been very effective since his return from IR and rehab in late July.  His ERA and WHIP were superlative in August, but he still didn’t get his first win until last week.  He has a tough challenge on tap against the Braves who lead the majors in avg. and OPS against LHPs this season.  Even if he survives, his available bullpen won’t be able to hold the fort against a Braves batting order that is 2nd in avg. and 3rd in OPS over the last 15 days. 

Over their last 10 against the Mets the Braves are 7-3 and have an average margin of victory of 5.6 runs in each of those wins. 

To add to the Mets’ challenge, they will be facing veteran Morton who has a 2.93 ERA in August and has a solid bullpen available Wednesday, as well as the aforementioned formidable run support.  Lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one.

Probable starter Kirby has pitched some gems lately for the red-hot Mariners including 9 innings of shutout ball (although he did not get a decision against the Orioles in that one) and two other games where he only allowed 1 run.  All this has been over his last 5 outings.  Over his last 3, his ERA is 2.05 and his WHIP is 0.64.

Probable starter Kopech has averaged 4.2 innings pitched and has an ERA of 8.53 over his last 5 starts and in his last 3 starts his WHIP is 1.98 (and his ERA is 9.88). 

Kopech’s team is cold too.  They have the 14th best avg. and the 25th best OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.  In the other dugout the Mariners have the 3rd best avg. and the 2nd best OPS over the last 15 days.  Not surprisingly the Mariners are 15-4 in August while the White Sox are 6-12.  Over the last 7 games the Mariners avg. 3.8 runs more / 9 innings than the Mariners and allow 4.3 less/ 9 innings than the Mariners.  This will make you very comfortable to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

The Dodgers said goodbye to probable starter for the Guardians, Syndergaard,  in late July.  He has had mixed results for his new team, the Guardians, that make for some weak numbers.  In his last 3 starts he has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP that have led to a 1-2 record.  His time in LA wasn’t much better. 

Rising star. 24-year-old Miller, is the probable starter for the Dodgers.  Lately he has been on fire with a 1.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  On the season he has a deserved 7-2 record. 

The available pitchers from the bullpen have very similar stats for both teams but at the plate there is a big gap between the squads.  In the last 15 days the Dodgers are in the top 3rd of the majors for avg. and OPS while the Guardians are in the bottom 4th for both over the same time period.  For the important OPS stat the Dodgers are 3rd in the majors vs. RHP over the season. 

Lastly the Dodgers have a 17-2 record in August and a 15-5 record vs. teams with a losing record after the all-star break.  The Guardians are 6-12 for August and have a 7-14 record vs. teams with a winning record after the all-star break.  Lay the points and go with Miller and the Dodgers.

Arsenal and Palace both came out of game week 1 with all 3 points.  Palace only managed 1 goal against a very weak Sheffield side.  They will be hard pressed to produce anything against a superior defence like Arsenal has.  Arsenal had 10 clean sheets away last season and 39 points away which was the best in the EPL.  Arsenal got up by 2 in the first half against Nottingham Forest and then coasted which made things a bit nervy at the end.  Forest is superior to Sheffield and Arsenal is superior to Palace by extension.

With the addition of Rice in midfield and the maturation of a world class talent like Saka, Palace will have their hands full.

Arsenal also feasted on all the London Derbys last season as they won 10 of 12 including both wins against Palace.  They have won 3 of their last 5 against Palace including 2 wins at Palace. 

Palace has trouble scoring which is shown by the fact they only scored 40 times last season which is less than two of the relegation sisters scored(Leeds and Leicester).  And they did that with Zaha (by far their leading scorer) who has since moved on.  Lay the goal and go with Arsenal on this one. 

The Phillies hammered the Nationals last night, beating up on Washington's bullpen.  The Phillies are leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, and face a right-hander who has an ERA of 7.44 in his last seven starts.  Short starts and lots of earned runs is the line on Williams these days.  He'll square off with the Phillies ace Wheeler, who has been very sound lately.  He beat the Nats in a 6 inning 3 run start just 10 days ago. Wheeler has been more effective on the road this season.  
We are heading into the stretch and every game matters for the Phillies at this point.  The Nats have impressed lately but they are out-classed in starters and out-gunned on offense on Sunday.  Add in decent relief pitching, a rarity for the Phillies in the last few seasons, and you have a recipe for a run line victory.  Take the Phillies at -1 1/2.

Analysis    These two teams lost in the first game week.  Villa was dismantled by Newcastle and Fulham won with a clean sheet against Everton.  The similarities end there as Villa has dominated Everton over the last while and ended last season strongly.  In their last 7 at home Villa is 7-0 and has only conceded 2 goals.  Everton has trouble scoring as last season they only managed 34 goals in 38 games. 

Villa is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. Everton and 4-0 in their last 4 home matches vs. Everton.  In their last 6 head to head Villa has outscored Everton 12-2. 

Both managers have problems with availability of starters but this should not reduce Villa’s superiority.  Pick Villa on this one. 

The Stamps are running out of runway here to salvage their season.  They need to get back on track but are in the middle of a string of games against the Lions, Argos and Bombers; the elite of the CFL.  It isn’t going to happen this week.  QB Maier is just too inconsistent.  His last loss to the Bombers he only got 122 yards passing.  In 4 of his last 9 games he has less than 170 yards passing.  That doesn’t come close to cutting it in the pass happy CFL.  He leads the CFL in INTs thrown and has the lowest passer efficiency rating among qualified QBs at 78.7.  This is bad news against a Bombers’ “D” that has the 2nd best opponents’ pass efficiency rating (77.9) and opponents’ avg yards/pass (7.4). 

On the other side of the ball the Bombers lead the CFL in passing yards and are 2nd in rushing yards.  Calgary’s “D” is in the bottom half of the CFL in both for opponents rushing and passing categories.

The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 after an ATS loss while the Stamps are 1-5 in their last 6 ATS vs. the West.  The spread is less because Brown will start in place of Collaros but Brown has too many weapons at his disposal.  Lay the points and take the Bombers.

I’m not going to make the mistake I made after the Bombers’ last bye week and their subsequent annihilation of the Lions, nor the scare the Elks, off their bye week, threw into the Bombers. The Ti-Cats are coming off a bye week and with a new OC in successful CFL coach Milanovich having two weeks to prepare, the Elks will be in trouble.  It is also instructive to note that the Ti-Cats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a bye week and the Elks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Ti-Cats.

It won’t help that the Elks will be without their leader on defence, DB Purifoy, as well as starting DE Brown.   

Both teams are at or near the bottom of the league in most important offensive and defensive stats so we aren’t expecting a Picasso here but should see two rejuvenated offenses as the Elks will go into their second game with their new OC, Jackson, as well.  Both teams will not start the QB they started the season with.  Lay the points and go with the Ti-Cats coming off their bye week. 

Probable pitcher Abbott for the Reds seems to be a charm for his team as they have a 10-3 record when he starts.  Probable starter Syndergaard for the Guardians seems to have the opposite effect on his team (which was the Dodgers before the trade deadline) as his team’s record is 5-10 when he starts.  Syndergaard was also shelled the last game he pitched against the Reds (for the Dodgers) as he gave up 6 ERs over 3 innings.

Add to this the fact that the Guardians are 29th in avg. and 30th (dead last) in the majors against LHP.  The Reds are in the top half of the majors vs RHP. 

And don’t forget, the Guardians are 6-13 against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  The Reds are 8-5 against teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.  Lay the points and take the high value bet for the Reds in this one.

Both probable starters for the Yankees and Braves have struggled as of late.  Severino for the Yankees has been in a funk beyond compare though and it makes Elder’s recent dip look palatable.  A 13.05 ERA for August backs onto an 11.22 ERA for July and his WHIP over his last 3 starts is north of 2.00.  Elder has had a tough August too but his ERA over his last 3 starts is almost half the size of Severino’s.

Add to this the majors’ leading avg. and OPS over the last 15 days compiled by the Braves and their mastery of RHP all season where again they lead the majors in avg. and OPS and you have the makings of an ugly outing for Severino and the Yankees.  The Yankees are 29th in avg. and 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year (although they have been middle of the pack overall over the last 15 days).

In terms of runs for/9 innings the Braves have averaged almost double what the Yankees have.  It’s a pretty confident play to lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one. 

It’s a new world in the EPL this season with Chelsea and Liverpool not making the Champions League and Manchester United moving back into the EPL top 4.  Last season United had the lowest goals against record in the EPL at home and only lost one game at Old Trafford.  Rashford was second in goals to the incomparable Haaland and will look to continue against a Wolves team that is in disarray. 

The Wolves only made two additions but lost Jimenez, Costa, Neves, Traore and Moutinho.  Those holes have not been filled.  Their manager from last year cleaned out his office 4 days ago and new skipper O’Neil has had to sort out his new squad in short order.  In their last 6 matches the Wolves surrendered 14 goals and only scored 4.  Against a stingy United defence this will not improve. The Wolves also failed to win any of their final 8 road games.  All in all, you should lay the goals and go with United on this one.   

Chelsea and Liverpool both disappointed last season.  But they ended their seasons in much different fashions.  Chelsea was humiliated in the last stretch with one win in their L 11 while Liverpool found their footing and were undefeated in their final 11.  The Reds paid for not rejuvenating their midfield in the first half of last season but have made amends this year with the departures of Henderson and Fabinho and the addition of World Cup champion Mac Allister and Szoboszlai.  There were goals galore at both ends of the pitch for the Reds in preseason so expect a dynamic side that will power past the goalless draws the last 4 times these squads met. 

Newcomers Fofana and Nkunku are out for Chelsea but new manager Pochettino had the Blues winning in preseason. 

But Liverpool has too much firepower and too much recent success for Chelsea to turn things around for this one.  The Reds also have Klopp who will sort out how to make use of his new additions quickly.  The Blues should be better but won’t be able to pull off the challenge before them in their opener.  Take the Reds in this one.

The Royals hammered the Cardinals on Friday.  We will likely see less runs  in Saturday's game with two solidly performing lefties squaring off.  Matz has been very consistent in his last appearances, allowing just 2 runs in 4 starts while averaging 6 innings per appearance.  Royals' rookie Ragans has similar numbers since returning to line up, also averaging 6 innings per appearance, and giving up just a pair of runs in his last three starts.  He has 19 K's in his last two games!  The Royals cashing 12 runs on Friday is not such a surprise; they are second in both BA (.295) and OPS (.851) over the last two weeks.  The Cards have been pretty average  (14th) in the same time frame.  Both teams are hovering around .500 in August.  The Cards are a heavy favorite, making the run line look very appealing considering considering Ragans' and the Royals offensive performances.  Take KC at +1 1/2.

The Tigers continued to struggle against the Red Sox in game one of their away series. Their right -hander Manning has also struggled lately, with far too many hits and over a run an inning allowed in his last three starts.  Opposing batters are hitting him at a .327 clip in August.  Bello, the Sox' young right-hander starts for today.  Bello saw his ERA creep up in July after a long stretch of quality starts.  He bounced back last time out with a fine 6+ inning effort, allowing just a single run.  He has consistently pitched better at Fenway than away this season.   Boston is tough to beat at home and tougher on right handed pitching than Detroit (.260 vs .231 BA.)  The Sox are 12-5 vs. sub .500 teams in the second half.  I like Bello's chances today.  Detroit has never faced the youngster. Look for Boston to win their fourth straight game.  Take the Sox on the run line at -1 1/2.

Luton Town is away to Brighton in their first ever game in the Premiership.  They are in tough as Brighton has proven to be an offensive force at home with a 6-0 result over Wolves, a 3-0 result over Liverpool and a 4-0 domination of Chelsea at Amex Stadium in Brighton.  Brighton just has too much attacking power.  Even with the loss of Mac Alllilster and pending loss of Caicedo, their pickups of Milner, Dahoud and Pedro is going to keep coach De Zerbi awash in attacking possibilities.  Returnees Estupinan on the back line, Gross in the middle of the park and Welbeck up front should help stabilize recent arrivals.

Luton will not have centre backs Burke and Osho available as well as midfielders Clark and Potts.  This should open space for Brighton’s attacking style.  It should be noted that Brighton only lost 5 at home all last year and only 1 vs teams in the bottom of the table.  Luton finished more than 10 points behind Championship leader Burnley and then only advanced after PKs in the qualifying game.  Chances are they will be in the bottom half of the table. 

Luton is likely to work to be difficult to break down but Brighton is just too strong attacking.  Lay the points and take Brighton. 

The Roughriders have a short turnaround and have to travel for this one.  With an inexperienced QB, a banged up D-line, O-line and WR corps this will be difficult for the Riders to be prepared for.  It is also important to note that teams off only 4 days rest this season are 2-7 straight up and ATS.  The Riders are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams with a winning record.   

Other things are more even as they are side by side in most team defensive categories in the CFL team stats rankings except for opposition offensive TDs, 1st downs allowed and avg. first down yards allowed, where the Als are 1st or 2nd and the Riders are 4th or 6th. It is hard to compare offensive team stats as most of the Riders’ were achieved under the auspices of injured first string QB Harris and QB Fajardo is a game time decision for the Als.

Although the Als are 2nd to last in terms of sacks allowed they have only allowed 3 in their last two outings.  Last week the Als also had four OLs ranked in the top ten for performance against the pass rush by PFF analysis.    The Als are also last in sacks made but the addition of last year’s outstanding western defensive player DL Lemon two games ago started to pay dividends last week as he made 2 sacks, an INT and was the 4th rated DL by PFF analysis. 

Taking this all together makes this a fine play to lay the points and go with the Als.   

The Tigers have won three straight with a pair of shutouts in the mix.  They will face the Red Sox where they have had very little success in the past.  However, with the Sox sporting an ugly 3.4/6.4 runs for and against and a bullpen ERA of over 8.00 in their last ten games, I like the Tigers' chances on Friday.  Chris Sale returns from the IL for Boston.  With just two short rehab appearances to date, I doubt we will see any length at all from Sale. Do not expect much support from the relievers.  Adding to their woes, the Sox are not hitting well at all recently.  In fact the Tigers, not known for offense, are outhitting them, especially for average.  Tigers' lefty Skubal looked very sharp against the Rays, pitching into the 6th and allowing zero ER's.  While he has had a couple of rough outings since his return from the IL, four of his six appearances have been shutouts.  The Tigers' bullpen has been performing well in recent games.  Boston is a firm favorite today, but I am wagering on the Tigers to at least keep this one close.  Take Detroit on the run line at +1 1/2.

Treble winner Man City visits newly promoted Championship winner Burnley for the EPL opener.  Their last meeting in the FA Cup quarterfinals in March was a humbling return for Burnley manager and longtime Man City star Kompany as they were dominated 6-0.  Burnley still has no answer on the back end for Haaland and Alvarez, who scored 3 and 2 times each in that game and are likely starters for this rematch.  City used a rotation squad for that game and might for this fixture as well, as the Super Cup match against Sevilla is on the 16th.  That should not prevent Guardiola’s side from continuing their dominant run of form against the Clarets.  Many City is 15-1-0 in their last 16 against Burnley.  In their last 11 against Burnley Man City has scored five or more goals five times, outscoring them 40-1 over that span.  Burnley’s last goal against City was in Dec. 2019.

Even with some solid additions that should prevent relegation, Burnley doesn’t match up well against City.  Last season’s leading scorer Tella is back at Southhampton and his replacement Amdouni may take a while to gel with his new squad.

Kovacic should ably replace Gundogan in the City midfield and Ake and De Bruyne should be available for selection.

Laying the goals and going with City is a solid choice to get you into the new season on the right foot (pun intended).

These are two teams from different planets.  Bombers are coming off a thrashing of the Lions while the Elks were shutout by the Lions the week before their bye.  The Bombers are 6-2 while the Elks are 0-8 and on a 21-game home losing streak.  It makes for a wild money line and lots of points for the spread lines.   

The Bombers are first in seven offensive categories while the Elks are last in 5 different defensive categories.   There is no need to discuss the Elks’ sorry offensive stats rankings.  They are starting 3rd string QB, Canadian Ford, hoping to jump start an offense coming off its second shutout of the season.  Given that the Bombers are 1st in sacks made and the Elks are 6th in sacks allowed it could be a long night for Ford. 

Taking a close look at recent point spread history for these teams gives credence to the expectation of the Bombers to lay the points as high as they will be.  The Bombers are 5-3 ATS in their L8 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Elks.  In their last 3 vs. the Elks they have won by at least 14 points.  The Elks, having lost 21 in a row at home are 3-18 ATS in that stretch, are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 this season and 0-4 ATS after a bye week.  None of this bodes well for the Elks so it is clear we should lay the points and take the Bombers on this one.   

The probable starters for Thursday’s early game are relative youngsters with limited major league experience.  Elder has had considerable success for the Braves (8-3 record), while Falter is just getting started with the Pirates after a tough start to the year with the Phillies.  Elder blew his last start against the Cubs but the two before that were solid outings with 1 and 2 ERs allowed.  In Falter’s lone start for the Pirates, he pitched a respectable 4 innings and allowed only 1 ER.

Both bullpens have solid relievers available to be called upon with Atlanta’s available relief pitchers owning a slightly lower ERA.

Where these two teams are really separated is at the plate.   Atlanta has led the majors in avg. and OPS for most of the season and over the last 15 days they are still 1st in both avg. and OPS.  They also do well against LH starters with the 2nd best avg and best OPS in the mojors.  The Pirates don’t measure up here as they are in the bottom quarter of the league vs. RH starters and bottom half of the majors over the last 15 days in both avg and OPS.  Atlanta’s record vs. LH starters is 14-6 while the Pirates record vs. RH starters is 35-44.  The Braves also sport a 25-13 record for day games while the Pirates are a mediocre 21-27 for day games. 

To further cement this call on the spread the Braves have averaged 7 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Pirates have only averaged 4.4 runs/9 innings.  That difference alone should be more than enough to justify laying the points and going with the Braves.

The Rangers have won six straight, and now face the A's in Oakland.  The A's must have close to the worst home record in recent memory, and are very poor vs right-handed pitching.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  He had a couple of rough outings in July, but appears to have turned the corner in his last two  starts. In his most recent appearance he threw seven+ innings of one run ball with eleven K's.  Waldichuk starts for the A's, and he has been very uneven this season.  He hasn't pitched out of the fourth inning in any of his recent and infrequent starts.  The Dodgers roughed him up for four runs in just three+ innings last time out.    A poor A's bullpen (6.00 ERA/L5 games) is not a dependable option if Waldichuk has another short start.  It hasn't always been the case, but the Rangers' pen is in top form with an ERA under 2.00/ L7.

The Rangers are seeing the ball very well  with the third best OPS of .952 in the last week.  While the A's have won two straight, this really should be another win for the hard-hitting Rangers.  Take Texas on the run line at -1 1/2.

The CFL has slowly begun to figure RedBlacks’ new sensation, QB Crumb, out.  It already began two weeks ago vs. the Stamps as they put an LB in place to “spy him.”  They didn’t quite get it down pat, but last week the TiCats did as they put pressure on him and suffocated him in the pocket.  He ran as many times as he completed passes.  That is not a way to succeed in the CFL.  The RedBlacks have five receivers either out or questionable with injuries.  That won’t make it any easier for Crumb.

The Roughriders held both the Lions’ and the Argos’ offences in check over the last two weeks and should have an easier time of it vs. the RedBlacks. 

This is backup QB Fine’s 3rd start in a row.  He should be starting to feel more comfortable and his solid numbers over the past two weeks should translate into points.  Take the points and the Riders for the win.

Detroit evened their home series vs the Rays on Saturday much to my surprise and dismay.  It will be Manning vs Glasnow on Sunday.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, giving the Rays seven innings in three straight games, while allowing just four runs total.  He has pitched better on the road this season. Manning returned from the IL in fine form, but his last two games have been poor.  He has given up 4 home runs in the two games.

The Rays really should win this one.  The Tigers are poor at home and 29th in the league against right handed pitching.  Glasnow is one of the finest right handers around at the moment.  The Rays are hitting much better than in their dark days of July, and fifth in the league against right handers.  Their bullpen is showing signs of improvement, and has a decided edge on the Tigers' relief corps.  Considering how the Orioles are playing, Tampa really can't afford a series loss to a lesser team like the Tigers.

Tampa is 4-1 against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to rebound from Saturday's loss in a big way.  Game three will go to the Rays. Take Tampa on the Run line at -1 1/2.

With the Argos running away with the East title, second place is still up for grabs.  By winning this, the Als could put the TiCats to bed and make it between the Als and the RedBlacks.  Given that star offseason signing QB Mitchell is out again long term and Hamilton is down to their 3rd string QB this should be it.  The Als won handily, 38-12, in the first meeting between these two and would take the season series with a win Saturday. 

QB Fajardo has been outstanding after a down year last season and is 4th in pass efficiency, 3rd in yds/pass and 1st with the lowest interception rate.  On top of that the Als have the highest graded O-line according to PFF.  3rd stringer Powell for the TiCats has the lowest avg. passing depth in the league so he won’t be able to threaten the Al’s defense.  Powell has come in to lead an offense that sports the 2nd worst turnover ratio, INTs thrown and penalty rate.  And to top it off Hamilton’s last two starting LTs are hurt, which will be dangerous for the backside outside rush. 

The other problem for the TiCats is their “D” has been less than stellar.  They had a solid outing against a mediocre offense in the RedBlacks but are worst in the league in points allowed, opposition TDs, avg. 1st down plays against and 2nd worst in avg. rush yds against, number of opposition 1st downs, opposition pass efficiency allowed, 30+ yard plays allowed, and opposition yards/play.  Time to lay the points and go with the Als. 

The Royals are a surprising 4-0 in August, hitting well above their weight at .327 BA/.894 OPS in the last week.  They swept both the Mets and Twins, but considering their season, it is hard to think that this surge is sustainable.  One negative in this 8-2 run is the bullpen, 28th ranked this year, and with a 5.45 ERA over the last ten games. The Royals are a poor road team this year, and struggle against left handed pitching.  They will face a fine young lefty in the Phillies' Sanchez.  He has come into his own since mid-June and has allowed no more than 3 runs in 5 starts, sporting a very fine .172 Op BA in July.  The Phillies do have a good bullpen this year, a rarity for them in recent history.  Their offense has been just average recently but they will have their chances today when facing the Royals' Marsh.  The rookie right-hander has struggled more often than not in his first season, giving up 9 runs over 8 innings in his last two starts.  Walks, hit batters, and the long ball have all been issues.  This is the day the Royals come back to earth.  Take the 6-4 Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

Eventually the Argos undefeated string will end but not this week.  They are 6-0 straight up and ATS.  Their offence sputtered a bit last week but between their top notch “D” and their special teams they still put up over 30 points and kept the RoughRiders out of the end zone until garbage time.  The Stamps only pulled off field goals last weekend vs. the Als.

The Stamps are coming off only 4 days rest and their chaotic offense under QB Maier is too mistake prone for the Argos with their league leading +16 turnover ratio, not to take advantage of.  Maier has thrown 11 INTs while the Argos have made 16 INTs.  The Stamps rush game averages only 85 yds/game (7th in the league) and only 51 yds/game for the last 3 games while the Argos only allow 63 yds/game (2nd in the league).  This should make it even tougher for the Stamps pass game.

The Stamps do not match up well with the Argos in so many ways and will not be able to make up the spread.

The Rangers and the White Sox couldn’t be headed in more different directions.  The White Sox just traded their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Consequently, this will be a bullpen game for them with probable starter Scholtens making his third start of the season instead of coming out of the bullpen.  There are big holes in the rest of the bullpen that will be called on to help out.  Scholtens lost both starts and has a WHIP of 1.97 in them, so it doesn’t bode well for the White Sox. 

Probable starter Heany for the Rangers is in a more accustomed position with a 2.80 ERA in his last 5 starts, having shutout the opposition in two of those starts.

At the plate the Rangers have been 1st in avg. and 2nd in OPS in the majors against RH starters.  They have cooled down overall lately with a couple of injuries to key contributors but are still far superior to the White Sox who are 23rd in avg and 26th in OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.

On the road with their 20-35 record the White Sox have a -0.7 run differential/9 innings while the Rangers with their 34-20 home record have a +1.6 run differential/9 innings.  Clearly the White Sox are in tough in so many ways that laying the points for the Rangers is a clear call.

The 7-3 Reds seem to know how to win this year.  They are getting good starting pitching, which includes Sunday's starter Ashcraft.  He has pitched well this month after a dreadful June, with a 2.331 ERA in July, giving up 2 or less runs in his last 6 starts.  It is a similar story for the Dodgers' Grove; poor June followed by a solid July, with a 3.66 ERA for the month.  One caveat for Grove is his Op BA, a hefty .308 for the month.  The Dodgers are hitting well, .271 BA, .806 OPS, considerably better than the Reds. The Reds have a youthful enthusiasm this season earning a split in the last two games , and a 3-2 season lead with the Dodgers.  Aschcraft has been consistent enough lately to question the Dodgers as a heavy favorite. Both series games have been decided by a single run.  Take the Reds on the run line at +1 1/2.

The sad sack Elks are in tough.  This won’t be the night they win their first in 20 games at home or when they cover the spread.  The Lions are just too good. 

The Lions’ “D” is first in the CFL in points allowed and net offence allowed.  The Elks’ offence is last in points scored and net offence.  The Lions’ “D” is second in sacks while the Elks offence has allowed the 3rd most sacks in the league.  QB Cornelius for the Elks has the worst pass efficiency rating (for qualified QBs) in the league and the Lions have the best pass defence in the league.  The Elks have given up the most turnovers, most interceptions and have the worst turnover ratio (-6). 

Have you heard enough yet?  The Elks allow 144 yds/game rushing (worst in the CFL) and the Lions get their star RB Mizzell, back in the lineup. 

And just for a clincher the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 while the Elks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7.

The Elks are in big trouble.  They were shutout last game against the Lions.  Saturday will not be enough of an improvement to stop the Lions.  Pick the Lions and lay the points.

The Argonauts have been a juggernaut but not as heavy a favorite as the books are offering.   They will be missing a couple of receivers and DL Costigan.  Modest losses to say the least.  What isn’t accounted for is the return of at least 2 and maybe 3 receivers to the Riders lineup.  The Riders will also get starting center Godber back to stabilize their problematic O-line in front of 2nd string QB Fine who will have had a week of reps, film and confidence building after a tough outing against the vaunted BC Lions defence. With Godber back the rush game must improve some which in turn will improve the pass game. 

On defence the Riders get stud DL Lanier back to add to a pass rush that was successful vs. the Lions last week.  The Riders also signed all-star and INT leader in 2021, Washington.  Although he won’t start he should get a chance to make a difference

When comparing the two squads, some key areas are very close.  In opposition net offence allowed, the Riders are 3rd and the Argos are 4th and in first downs allowed those positions are reversed.  In points allowed the Riders allow 24.5/game while the Argos allow 22.2.  In passing “D” the Argos are 8th which should allow a little more success for QB Fine.  When all is said and done, expect the Riders to lose the game but to cover the spread.

It looks like QB Mitchell will be back for the TiCats this week. It really isn’t any reason to be excited as he has some daunting stats to take note of.  He didn’t do well for the Stamps last season and lost his place to Maier.  But this season his rough ways continued with a 58% completion rate, 53.3 passer efficiency rating and 4 INT vs. 1 TD pass to start out with before he was hurt.  He is returning to play against the best “D” in the league for avg. rushing gain against, 2nd best rush yards against/game and 3rd best in first downs allowed.  His own offence had a very weak run game against the Stamps last week with only 38 yards total on the ground.  It could even be worse this week.  DB Dandridge for the RedBlacks has the second most INTs in the league.  He along with the rest of the Red Blacks “D” will be looking to feast on an O-line that has to pass block all game long and adding to their 4th highest sack total in the league at Mitchell’s expense.

On the other side of the ball Crumb will have even more reps in practice as starting QB to fine tune his game against a Hamilton “D”

that has allowed the most points against, TDs and yards/play in the CFL.  They are also 2nd to last in first downs allowed.  Crumb will also have little to fear against a defence with the 2nd least INTs and least turnovers caused.  With the Red Blacks top rated run game (that includes Crumb himself), Crumb will have plenty of options and time for his pass game.  Clearly you should lay the points and take Ottawa for this one.

The Pirates swept the Padres in Pittsburgh in June, so a little payback may be in order, starting on Monday.  Yu Darvish will start for the Padres and he has been very sharp in July, allowing 3,1, and 0 runs in his last three starts.  The Pirates have not been hitting well (.218 BA, 6.635 OPS), and are just 4 -13 in July.  Their runs for/runs against ratio is a rough 3.0/6.4. A very fresh face will start for the Pirates.  Priester was roughed up in his first career start, allowing seven runs and a pair of home runs in five + innings.  The Padres are not a team you want to face when giving up long balls.  San Diego is hitting better of late (.245, .798), and ran up 14 runs just a couple of starts ago. Both teams are getting reasonable relief pitching at the moment, but  I think the Padres might run up the score early in this game.  Take San Diego on the run line at -1 1/2.

It will be pitching vs hitting when the Nationals face the Giants in Washington on Saturday.  The Nats are outhitting the Giants at the moment; Washington is 6th in OPS while the Giants are way down yonder at 27th in the last two weeks.  When it comes to pitching it is no contest.  Washington has the league's worst pitching over the last two weeks with an ugly 6.13 ERA.  Their bullpen is approaching double figures in ERA in that time frame. The Nats are giving up a whopping 7.7 runs a game compared to 4.1 for SF.  Webb starts for the Giants.  He is a work horse in top form, giving up just 4 runs while striking out 28 over 22+ innings in his last three starts.  He'll face Josiah Gray, who has had some fine starts this year, but can struggle.  4or 5 runs given up over 5 innings is a common thread for Gray.  While Webb may pitch better at home, Gray's ERA is nearly double in home games.  
San Fran is a very good road team and 33-21 in night games.  The Nats are just 15-32 at home and 18-35 at night.  Look for the Giants to run up the tab against the Washington bullpen and win on the run line (-1 1/2)

The Riders have devoted fans across the country.  No one wants to rain on their enthusiasm.  Sorry Riders fans, this doesn’t look good.  You are going to have to pick the Lions on this one even when your boys are given maybe double digit points.

It starts with injuries.  QB Harris is out for the season.  Starting center Godber is out and maybe LT Council.  The Riders O-line has struggled immensely giving up 4 sacks/game (7 last week) against a Lions’ pass rush that has the 2nd most sacks in the league.  The Riders are last in avg. rushing gain on 1st down.  The Lions’ “D” allows the 2nd least avg. yards rushing on 1st down.  QB Fine is starting his first game.  It could get ugly for pass protection.  And even if he has some time occasionally, the Lions’ “D” is 1st or 2nd in almost every category in the league on pass defense. 

On the other side of the ball the Riders will be missing MLB Dean, DL Lanier and at least two starting DBs.  Their “D” has been solid this year but won’t be able to get off the field with all the 2 and outs the Rider “O” will serve up.  And the Lions’ run game is rounding into form.  It will allow their very solid O-line to set up solid pass protection for QB Adams to find his bevy of star receivers (Whitehead, Rhymes, Hatcher and now Hollins) and pick apart the hurting Rider “D”.  To add insult to injury the Lions are coming off a bye week (teams are 6-1 this season after a by week) and are healthy.  They are 5-0 ATS in their L5 at home and 7-3 ATS in their L10 after a bye.  So, Riders fans, hold your nose, lay the points and take the Lions.  Everyone else, just leave your nose out of it.

It is a battle of two offensive juggernauts when the Dodgers, leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, face the home-town Rangers who aren't far behind at .801.  The Dodgers blew out Texas in the late innings to win game one of the series. The Rangers were 6-0 previous to that game, sweeping the Rays while holding them to just six runs in the series.  The Dodgers are 8-2 L10 games.  Rookie Bobby Miller (3-1, 5.02 ERA/L7 games) starts for LA.  He has had some solid if short starts this season, but tends to struggle after the fourth inning with an ERA of 11.57 in the fifth.  He will face Dane Dunning who has been a pillar of consistency, allowing two or less runs in five of his last six appearances, while averaging six innings per start.  Dunning is 5-0 at home.
The Rangers are a very good home team, and a good bet to rebound after a loss.  Neither bullpen is especially strong. I like Dunning and the Rangers to come out on top today as the pride of Texas take umbrage over a lopsided loss. Take the underdog to win or at least keep this one close.

It is hard to find anything positive about the A's at the moment, other than Friday's starter, lefty J.P. Sears.  He delivers quality starts more often than not and has given up just 4 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts, holding opponents to a very low ERA of .169 in July. Sears is better at home.  The last three of his starts have been decided by one run.  He'll face one of the premier left handers in the Astros' Valdez.  He has struggled a little in his last three games, allowing 11 runs over 18 innings.  In spite of 13 K's last time out he still allowed 5 runs over six innings.  Mind you, he faces the A's and not the Angels on Friday. Valdez hasn't pitched as well on the road this year.   The Astros have the superior bullpen but it hasn't been as sharp lately. About all that  can be said about Oakland's relievers, is that they will be well-rested after Thursday's game.
The 5-5 Astros are not hitting especially well at the moment (.236 BA/.668 OPS L2weeks), really not much better than the A's in the same time frame.  Both starters are likely to last at least 5 innings. Based on Sears' recent performances, I expect a low scoring game, and like the A's chances to keep this game close early. Take the Athletics to lead or stay close after the first five innings, and hang on to cover. A's +1 1/2

Olympic champion Canada has a target on its back and is struggling with conflict within their soccer federation at home.  But this team with some legendary veterans and outstanding rising stars has fared well in the lead up to this.  Coach Priestman commitment to defense,  has world class defenders and a goalkeeper that can earn clean sheets but also has ageless striker and all-time international goal scoring leader Sinclair.  They are capable of shutting down anyone.   They also have a rising star in midfielder Awujo who is capable of controlling the flow of play.   They beat Nigeria 2-0 in a friendly and then tied them using most of their bench.  They also beat Australia in two friendlies in Australia.  In the lead up they won their group in CONCACAF and then lost to world number one ranked USA in the final.  If they can overcome the turmoil, they should be the team to beat in this group.

Nigeria has had their own turmoil, as they lost two games in the Africa Cup (which used to be something they dominated) and have had battles with their own federation over unpaid salaries and political selection pressures on the coach.  They have a star striker in Oshoala who is fresh off a Champions League win with Barcelona.  Being ranked 40th in the FIFA is no match for 7th ranked Canada and they are widely predicted to exit the group stage.

The A's won at home on Wednesday, but that is all the winning they've done at 1-9. The Astros haven't been that much better at 5-5, but they are on a 6-0 run vs Oakland this year.  They haven't been getting their usual fine pitching lately, but you can't blame it on Thursday's starter, right hander Ty Frances.  The Late bloomer has been a steady presence in the Astros rotation.  He has allowed 3 ER or fewer and generally pitched into the 6th since the beginning of June.  He has been especially sharp in away games. The Astros haven't given France much run support but they will have their chances against lefty A's rookie Hogan Harris. Harris is an occasional starter/long reliever who has had poor results in his last three games, giving up more than a run an inning.  The A's bullpen is a mess this year and even with the Astro's pen underachieving lately, I still favor the Astros in the later innings.
Houston is a good road team and tough on left handed pitching this season.  The A's are  hitting right handers at just a .216 clip and are a very poor road team.
The Astros are heavily favored, but a more than acceptable bet on the run line.  Take Houston - 1 1/2.

Host New Zealand has qualified for the last 4 World Cups.  They haven’t advanced out of the group stage or even scored a goal.  But this World Cup will be different right?  Nope.  After Klinkova was appointed coach they won only one of their first 14 and were outscored 35-5.   As host , not having to qualify has led them to a most recent record of friendlies of 1-7-1.  They have had five significant injuries in the past year but all have recently returned.  It’s doubtful that they have returned to top form.  They have had the worst sustained stretch of any team in the field.

Norway on the other hand has been a traditional powerhouse in women’s football.  Recently they were humbled though by England 8-0 in the Euros.  Norway legend Riise took over the reigns as coach and has transformed their approach with a defensively stable 4-3-3 or 5-4-1.  This led to beating the finalist from the last World Cup, Netherlands 2-0 in November and drawing Sweden and France earlier this year.  They are the Group A favorite and with superstar Hegerberg and rising star Hansen should dominate the struggling New Zealand side even though they are the hosts.  Lay the points and take the Norwegian side.

Two hot teams and two solid probable starting pitchers will be tested to different degrees.  Southpaw Sanchez has been outstanding for the Phillies since he joined the rotation after his recall June 17th.  He has a stellar 2.77 Era in 5 starts with only 8 ERs in 26 IP.  His WHIP in June was 1.00 and a tiny 0.73 in July.  He will be throwing against a Brewers squad that has the 29th avg and 26th OPS in the majors against lefties.  This is certainly a chance for Sanchez to extend his solid run of late. 

Rea has been solid for the Brewers but his July ERA and WHIP have begun to creep up to 5.56 and 1.24 respectively.  Rea will be going up against Phillies’ batters that have been red hot in July.  They have the 5th best avg. and OPS in the majors for this month. He has only gone past 6 innings twice this year so his bullpen will be relied on.  The available relievers for this game are solid but the bullpen staff has been just OK on the road with a 4.29 ERA. 

If Sanchez needs help the Phillies bullpen has been solid at home with a 2.99 ERA.

This should be a chance for the Phillies bats to continue their July success while it doesn’t look promising for the Brewers against this solid lefthanded starter.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line.

Another pick with two hot teams.  Probable pitcher Grove for the Dodgers has had a very tough year with an injury, a rehab assignment and a total of four recalls from the minors.  He just recently got his ERA below 7.00 for the season and although his WHIP has been falling it is still 1.40 so far for July. 

Probable starter Wells for the Orioles has been a bright light for them and has been the picture of consistency with all 7 of his most recent starts having 2 ERs in each.  He does his part day in and day out.  In terms of available bullpen help, the Dodgers have been better than the Orioles of late although the Orioles still hold the edge over the whole season. 

These are two elite teams at the plate over the last 15 days.  The Dodgers are 2nd in OPS and 12th in avg in the majors, while the Orioles are 3rd in OPS and 4th in avg.  The Dodgers are only 22-20 against teams with a winning record while the Orioles are 30-19.  The clincher for me was the comparison of each team’s recent streak.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 against weaker opposition (Mets, Angels and Pirates).  The Orioles have won eight straight vs. much stronger teams (Marlins, Twins and Yankees) and their average margin of victory is 5 runs.  This last stat was the clincher for me that convinced me to recommend you lay the points and go with the Orioles.

Both the Phillies and the Brewers have been hot lately.  But probable pitcher Teheran has been hit hard in his last two starts (6 and 7 earned runs against) and by at least three of the current Phillies’ batters .  In his last 47 AB, Harper alone has 9 HR, 21 RBI, 12 BB and a .404 avg against Teheran.  Harper is not the MVP he once was but he is having a fine year as he is 2nd on the Phillies in avg. and tops in OPS. 

Probable starter Nola for the Phillies has won his last two starts vs. Teheran and is 5-1 in his last 10 starts vs. Milwaukee.  Nola is also 9th in the majors with 120 SO.

Both bullpens have been solid with the Brewers being a little stronger, but the damage should be done before the Brewers’ relievers can step in.  Lay the points and take the Phillies. 

The Twins have racked up a pair of victories in their road series vs Oakland.  They will send out Joe Ryan for the sweep today. Unfortunately Ryan has been very uneven lately, with three of his last five starts of the outright poor variety.  In spit of ten Ks in his last appearance, he gave up five runs in four+ innings. The A's send out young lefty JP Sears, who is much better than his record would suggest.  He has pitched well in his last seven starts with a 3.38 ERA, including twelve+ innings of one run ball in his last two appearances.
The Twins problems this year are road games, where they are three games under .500, and left-handed pitching (.221 BA).  While the A's bullpen has struggled to a 6.04 ERA L10 games, the Twins' pen hasn't been all that much better at 4.91.  The A's have one of the poorest offenses in the league, but if there is any hope for optimism, it is that they have managed eleven runs against the Twins staff in this series.
Seven of ten of Sears last starts have been either wins or decided by one run. With Ryan struggling of late, I like the A's to keep this game close.  Take the A's on the run line today.

The Royals squandered a pair of fine starting pitching performances on Saturday, losing both sides of a double header in the late innings.  Singer will start for KC.  His last two starts typify his season.  He had probably his best performance against the Dodgers 2 starts ago, allowing just a run over 7 innings pitched, but followed up with a 6 run 5 inning appearance against the Guardians. With more poor starts than quality ones, you really don't know what you will get from him.  Singer has struggled in the early innings and in day games.  Whether he pitches well or poorly, the Royals pen is not dependable, allowing 7 runs from the 7th on in Saturday's double header.  The Rays' pen allowed 0 runs in the same time frame on Saturday.
Zach Efflin starts for Tampa. The Rays signed Efflin long term this season, and it has certainly paid off.  He has allowed just 2+ runs on average and 6+ innings per start in his last 5 starts. Efflin beat the Royals in June, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings, including a rare pair of HRs, the only ones he gave up in June.  The Rays are tough on right-handers, and while the offense ran into some trouble before the break, they appear to be on the mend now. The Royals struggle at home, against right handers, and have been one of the very poorest offenses in baseball this year.  Take the Rays to win on the run line again. 

The points offered in the Saturday game between the Bombers and the RedBlacks are the largest for a Bombers’ game since October 2022 when they were playing the hapless Elks.  It seems like a lot until you look at the state of the RedBlacks’ offence.  They are down to their 4th string QB who has never started a CFL game.  In relief last week he threw 2 INTs on a team that already  leads the CFL with 8 INTs given up.  He is up against a Bomber D-line that is 2nd in the CFL in sacks and has the 2nd best rushing defence in the league.  Given that the RedBlacks depend on their running game (3rd best in the CFL), all the Bombers need to do is fill the box to stuff the run and sit back while their D-line harries new QB Crumb and feast on his inexperienced attempts.  The points on offer for this game would need to be well into double digits to make this viable to go against the Bombers.  

Don’t forget, the RedBlacks are last in the league in all four major passing categories (average gain/pass, passing TDs, 30+yards passing plays, passing efficiency).  This is not going to miraculously improve in this game.  Although the RedBlacks “D” has been respectable this season, they won’t be able to hold down the fort when they are on the field for most of the game.  In the above-mentioned passing categories, the Bombers are 4th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st and in rushing yards/game they are 1st.  It should prove to be a long night for the RedBlacks and no problem for you to lay the points and pick the Bombers.

The Rays were on a very rare 1-7 plod before the break, getting short and poor outings from their starters, taxing their overworked bullpen. Add to that, an offense that scored just 1 run in 4 of 6 of their last games.  The Break couldn't have come at a better time.   The Royals are among the cellar dwellers in offense, overall pitching and bullpen results and a lamentable 13-31 at home.  Just what the doctor ordered for the Rays to step out of their funk.  Glasnow starts for Tampa.  He last faced the Royals in July, holding them to a single run with 12 strikeouts.  He will face Royals rookie right-hander Marsh, who has just 2 starts under his belt, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings. The Rays are not the team you want to face for that critical third start. 

Tampa is a heavy favorite, even on the run line, but still a worthwhile bet.  Look for a HUGE game from Glasnow and the Rays and pay the points.

The Rangers stumbled to 3-7 over their last 10 games before the break.  They are still Top 6 in OPS over the last 2 weeks but are 27th in pitching over the same stretch.  Rangers' righty Jon Gray has lost three straight, and 3 of his last 4 starts have been of the poor variety.  He was hit very hard (.360 BA) by the Red Sox in his last start.  He is up against a very fine right hander in Cleveland's Civale, who has averaged 6+ innings pitched and given up 7 runs total in his last 4 starts.  He has an 0.69 ERA with 0 walks in 2 starts in July.  He will likely pitch longer than Gray and the Guardians have the better bullpen, but everyone's pen should be rested and ready to go.  Cleveland has been hitting much better, for average at least.  They are 6-3 in July, 8th in BA over the last two weeks.  I like the Guardians chances on Friday.  While Texas is power hitting side, it remains to be seen if they will continue to struggle.  As good as they have been this year, they are just .500 as a home favorite.  Take the Guardians, behind Civale's pitching to keep this one close.  Take Cleveland on the Run line at +1 1/2.

The Argos and the Als are early season favs in the Eastern Conference.  Argos are missing LT Cage and MLB Williams and LB Muamba.  But their defence has been one of the top without those two LBs and with a rotating cast of DLs.  Heninger is the only major absentee for the Als on the DL as top DB Evans is slated to return.  The major problem for the Als is their O-line, healthy or not, just can’t seem to get the job done for the rushing game.  The Als were last of all the teams that played last week, for rushing performance.  This week they face an Argos “D” that is first in the CFL in run yards against, average run yards against and rush TDs.  Given that the Als have also surrendered the most sacks in the CFL on QB Fajardo they will be in a tough place.  With no threat of a run game, the Argos will be able to pin their ears back and go for it when Fajardo will be having to pass so often. 

On the offensive side of the ball, except for the Als' week run game the two teams are a saw off.

Coach Dinwiddie of the Argos has his team 5-2 when coming off a bye week.  The Argos were 2-1 in the series against the Als last season (losing only a mean nothing game in the last week of the season).

The Argos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against Eastern Conference opposition.  The Als are in tough so lay the points and go with the Argos.

The Lions and the Als both had their offences humbled last week.  Given that these two teams possess the top two defenses by the numbers, this could be a tough week.  They are 1st and 2nd in terms of points allowed by the opposition offence, net offence allowed/game, passing yards allowed/game, and the opposition’s passing efficiency.  The Als also are second in the league in interceptions which after throwing 6 picks last week will not be welcome news for Lions’ QB Adams.  BC does have the highest average passing yardage/game and passing TDs but Montreal counters with the highest passing efficiency rating and average gain/pass. 

So where do the opportunities exist in this standoff.  First of all BC’s WR Whitehead returns to action, making Sunday’s game the first all season that will feature him with Hatcher and Ryhmes (last season’s only three 1000 receivers on one team).  Second, the Als will be missing two starting DBs, Evans and Lyon, so that will reduce QB Adams’ fear of picks.  Evans has been especially effective as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions (BC will be missing one Starting DB).  But third and most tellingly, the Als have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the CFL this year.  The Lions’ defense has made more sacks than any other CFL team.  That in tandem with the Als’ weak running game should spell a long night for QB Fajardo. 

Historically the Als have not fared well in Vancouver as they have only two wins since 2000.  It doesn’t look like the Als will break that string of defeats in Week 5 either.  Pick the Lions and lay the points.

The Rangers and Nats split the first two games of their Washington interleague series, but I like the Rangers chances in the tie breaker on Sunday.  Rangers' right hander Dunning (8-1, 2.69 ERA) has been sharp and consistent since day one.  He gave up just five runs in June.  In his last three starts he has averaged seven innings pitched with a 2.08 ERA.  He will face aging and long suffering lefty Patrick Corbin (5-10, 6.88 ERA).  He is a workhorse for innings and can have an occasional quality start.  Corbin shut out the Mariners over five innings, but sandwiched  that start with a pair of very rough innings. The rough starts are unfortunately more of the norm; he was hit at a .322 clip in June.
The Rangers are slumping, but hitting has not been the cause.  They are 2nd in the league in OPS/L15 games and love hitting lefties (298 BA, .847 OPS) this season. The Nationals are averaging just 3.3 runs scored while giving up 7.9 over their last seven games.  The Rangers pen is no great shakes, but the Nats' is even worse.  Dunning and the Rangers are a very large favorite, but a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take the Rangers to walk away with this one.

The 7-0 Mets are starting to fulfill their potential in all categories including starting and relief pitching.  This includes lefty Peterson, who has pitched well in his two games back from an extended visit to the minors.  While not pitching past the fifth, he has allowed just a single run over ten innings in those two appearances.  While the jury is still out, it appears he has re-found some of last year's form.  He'll face another left hander, Blake Snell, who is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.64 in his last seven games, with two shutouts in his last three starts.  
The Mets' bats, lead by Lindor and Pham are leading the league in slugging and OPS over the last seven games. The Padres are also hitting well, putting up 6.9 runs per game over their last seven games.  The bullpens could be the difference today. With the length the Mets have been getting from their other starters, the pen is well rested and very sharp, with a minuscule ERA of 1.25 L3 games.  Not so the Padres, whose bullpen has a hefty 7.88 ERA L10 games.
We saw the Padres lose badly to the Pirates in spite of 6 innings of 2 run pitching in Snell's second-last start.  Look for the Padres to lead early based on Snell's fine pitching, but I do like the Mets to gain back ground in the later innings and keep this game close.  Take NY on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Jays have won four straight games, thumping the Tigers on Friday.  Detroit will try and even the series, sending out right hander Matt Manning.  With just  two starts under his belt since a long stay on the IL, Manning has given up 6 runs in 10+ innings since returning.  The Tigers will need innings from him on Saturday; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.75 ERA/L10 games.  Gausman starts for the Jays.  The All-Star has pitched well this season with very infrequent poor starts.  He had a 2.97 ERA in June, putting up 50 K's and allowed just 2 runs in his last start.  The Jays have been getting reasonable success from the pen of late.

The Jays have won four straight games, are top ten in slugging over the last 10 games, and are starting to get offense from their big bats, especially Bichette and Guerrero. They are tough on righ t handed pitching.  The Tigers are still scuffling down in the basement at 27th in OPS/ L10 and 28th against right handers this season.  I am wagering on the favored Jays today.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Elks can’t catch a break.  Still winless, they are coming off of 3 games in 11 days and a short week to prepare for their second road game in a row.  Their O-line is still in a state of chaos with two more injuries, as QB Cornelius will return after losing his starters' role for last week. Consequently, they have allowed the most sacks in the CFL. The Elks are also last in offensive points and net yards in the CFL. 

To make matters worse their defense is last in total points allowed, last in rush yards allowed and they have allowed the most big plays(20+yds. rush, 30+ yds pass) of any “D” in the league.  They are not in a good place in so many ways.  Their pass “D” is a little more respectable but they are going against the 2nd top passer in the league in QB Harris.

The Riders also have injury problems on their O-line but they at least are coming off a bye week.  Two starters on the O-line are out and one more is questionable.  Even so they still have the 3rd most productive ground game in the CFL with the dynamic duo of Hickson and Morrow.  Given the Elks weak pass rush 9last in the league) and rush defence the Riders shouldn’t be troubled.

As if the Elks don’t have enough problems they also have discipline problems as they have the 2nd most penalty yards against while the Riders have the 2nd least.

All of this points to a Riders win and covering the spread.

The Guardians took two of three from the Royals in KC at the end of June, outscoring them 19-6.  In their home series opener, they'll send out their impressive rookie Bibee who has certainly been trending in the right direction in his last three games, allowing three runs, then one, then finishing with a shutout, pitching five or more innings in each start.  The Guardians' bullpen is generally very solid, but especially so at home this year.  Their 2.18 ERA is less than half the Royals relievers' road ERA.  The rookie will face the Royals' Lyles (1-11, 6.68 ERA).  Lyles improved in June, finishing with a 5.40 ERA.  He gave up four and three runs in his last two starts, but as his record would suggest, he doesn't get a ton of run or relief support.  He has a very poor road ERA of 8.02 this year.

The 3-7 Royals were just swept by the Twins, are second last in OPS over the last two weeks, and are 12-30 in road games this season.  The Guardians are hitting 40 points higher for average and 70 points higher in OPS over the last two weeks.  Cleveland is a heavy favorite, but a very strong option on the run line.  Take the Guardians at -1.5.

Soroka for the Braves and Quantrill for the Guardians are both just recently back in the majors.  Neither has settled in well yet.  Soroka’s last three starts have resulted in a 6.89 ERA.  Quantrill has been even worse in his last 3, losing them all and getting shelled to the tune of a 15.44 ERA.  His last one, which was his first after his rehab assignment, he lasted 3.1 innings and was shelled for 6 runs.

Chances are both managers will go to their bullpen fairly early which will be tough as they played 10 innings Tuesday night.  The Braves bullpen has had 1.99 ERA in its last 3 and 2.88 ERA in its last 10.  The Guardians (who have a good bullpen) have had a 4.88 ERA in their last 3 and 3.96 in their last 10 so the edge goes to the Braves in this one.

The Braves bats though have been tops in the majors the last 15 days with the #1 OPS and #2 avg while the Guardians have been in the bottom third of the majors for OPS (9th in avg.).

This season the Braves have been 27-12 on the road, 13-3 as a road fav, 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. RHP.  The Guardians have been a modest 20-20 at home this season.  This all adds up to the Braves having no problem covering the spread.

Probable starter, 41 year old Wainwright for the Cards has been looking like his nickname (Uncle Charlie) out there lately.  In his last 3 starts he has averaged 3.7 IP, 1.3 SO and 5.3 earned runs against.  In June his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 9.00 and 2.23 respectively.  Marlins’ Luzardo’s June ERA and WHIP of 0.93 and .673 respectively are in sharp contrast to Wainwright’s numbers.  Those are pretty extreme numbers at either end of the continuum for both pitchers.  This could be the end of the road for Wainwright. 

With Wainwright getting pulled so early lately, that is a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has struggled to a n 8.27 ERA in its last 5 games.  The Marlins’ bullpen has been better as of late and so should be able to carry Lazardo’s start across the finish line if needs be. 

Both teams have been in the top ¼ of the majors in hitting stats lately but clearly the Cards will have a tougher go against Luzardo than the Marlins will against Wainwright.  The Marlins should easily cover the spread on this one.

It is only week 4 and already we have a big game between the last two remaining undefeated teams.  Some pundits are calling it a pick ‘em match up.  I disagree strongly.  This means they will bail out and offer an over/under pick.  But there is a clear play here. 

The easiest way to make sense of it is to look at the quality of the opposition each team has played.  Much like Saturday’s game, one team has gone up against much tougher opponents.  BC has played the Bombers (now 3-1), the Stampeders and of course the weak Elks.  Toronto has faced the RedBlacks (1-2) and the TigerCats (0-3).

Against weaker opposition the Argos’ defence has allowed more than 100 yards more per game than the Lions’ defence.  The have also allowed opposing QBs to complete 77% (9th in CFL) of their passes while the Lions have allowed only a 57% (2nd in CFL) completion rate.  BC’s stingy “D” has allowed a meager 7 pts/game while the Argos have allowed 22 pts/game. 

Yes the Argos are near the top with 399 yds/game offence, 37.5 pts/game and only 1 sack allowed but they have not faced anything close to the Lions’ defence which leads the league with 11 sacks.  To add to their level of difficulty on Monday, the Argos will be without their starting LT Cage (a crucial position against league sack leader Betts who humbled all star LT Bryant in week 3). 

The Lions will be missing one of their star receivers, Whitehead, but they will have two of last year’s 1000 yard receivers back in the lineup.  Rhymes and Hatcher missed the game against the Bombers but will return to give QB Adams more weapons.  The Argos will also be missing MLB Williams and LB Muamba, so the CFL’s second leading rusher Mizzell will be harder to handle.  It seems clear that the play is for the Lions to cover the spread.

The Bombers were humbled last week against the Lions.  They are a veteran team.  They don’t lose their focus and run around like angry young men in practice to get back on track.  They know that they have what it takes.  Many of them took practices off this week to lick their wounds and reset.  Star defender Jeffcoat will be back on the D-line and veteran CB Houston will be back in the secondary after being out against the Lions.  They know Alouettes QB Fajardo has a banged-up O-line that has already averaged 5 sacks against a game to start the season and will be eager to take advantage. 

The Alouettes defence has done well against 2 of the 3 worst teams in the CFL so far this season.  But now they are banged up with MLB Williams and star DB Evans on IR.  DL Heninger may not play either.  Bombers QB Collaros will have taken note and his proud veteran  O-line will want to make amends after surrendering an unheard of 7 sacks against the Lions last week.  The Bombers run game is 2nd best in the CFL in yards/game and without their starting MLB the Als will be in tough.  Look for the Bombers and their varied passing and running attack to win and cover the touchdown.

The Marlins were on a five game winning streak before being rudely interrupted by the Braves.  While the Braves have owned the Marlins in the past, I believe Miami will bounce back from Friday's miserable loss with a much better effort.  The Braves have not yet faced Miami's secret weapon, Euly Perez.  He hasn't allowed a run in three starts and had a 0.32 ERA.  Is he due for a stumble?  Even against the hard-hitting Braves, I don't think so.  39 year old veteran Charlie Morton, starts for the Braves.  He has been a good dependable starter for the Braves, consistently delivering five innings, and allowing about three runs per start.  The Braves have a solid bull pen at the moment.
Other than Friday's shelling, the Marlins hadn't allowed more than two runs in five straight games.  They have some offensive upside at least in BA lately. Perez has delivered 6 innings in his last starts.  I think the Marlins, a significant underdog, will get their backs up and will stick around in this game.  Take Miami on the run line at +1.5. 10*!