Lakers/Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are a big public play here, as the Lakers finally broke their five-game slide with a win at Houston last night.

This would typically be a great place to go against LA in the second game of a back-to-back, but there's simply no way that LeBron James can relax considering their current record.

LA also plays with revenge here after a 108-95 home defeat to the Grizz back on December 9th. 

Memphis comes in off B2B BIG wins, pulling away for a 127-102 victory over Sacramento, before then holding on for a 114-113 victory at Phoenix.

Can anyone say letdown spot?

Yes, the Lakers are without AD, but I expect The King and Russell Westbrook to build off last night's win and at the very least, take this one right down to the final moments. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Lakers. 

Yale/Saint Mary's

Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I think the hungry underdog visiting side can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it's been afforded tonight.

This is Saint Mary's final non-conference matchup of the year. It has a big New Year's day game against San Francisco. I say the Gaels get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today.

The Bulldogs are 6-7 after a 69-60 loss to Monmouth. Overall Yale averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.8.

The Gaels are 11-3 and they're off a 75-58 win over Missouri State. Overall they average 67.5 PPG, while allowing 58.

I think Yale is catching Saint Mary's at a great time here. The Bulldogs are putting up over 70 PPG on average and I think they'll be much more competitive than what this line is suggesting. 10* COACHES CORNER on Yale. 

Even after their shutout against the Bucanneers,  there is still the Saints' 9 point offense to consider, and that was with their quarterback and some other key pieces who will be missing this week.  Now the Saints are down to their 3rd or 4th string QB.  A Saints win would make a great Disney feature, but lets face it; "this ain't no movie", as the song goes. 

The Saints defense has dominant last week, and has been their strong suit all season.  The Dolphins allowed 24 points to the Jets, but this was not a result for the Dolphins.  In their previous 5 games they allowed an average of around 12 points per game, while reeling off 5 staight wins.

Tagovailoa has improved over the course of the season, and has been accurate and well protected of late. The Dolphins have shown dramatic improvement in offense. Here are a pair of stats to compare: Dolphins have scored 28 points on average in their last three games compared to 18 for the Saints. The Dolphins have an 81 scoring % in the red zone over the last two weeks, compared to the Saints’ 28% rate.

It appears to have been a doomed season for the Saints. They are depleted once again, and we saw  where that got them earlier in the year. Take the Dolphins to win and cover.

Brown/Syracuse

The Brown Bears are 8-5. They've won three straight on the road, but I think they'll predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue and against this "step up" in competition.

Syraucse had its two game win streak snapped with B2B losses, falling 67-63 to Villanova on a neutral court, before then dropping a 79-75 decision at Georgetown as a 3-point favorite in its last outing. The Orange though average 77.5 PPG, while Brown averages just 72.8.

The Orange are far superior defensively and have one last opportunity here for a tune-up befor the majority of league action gets underway.

Look for Brown to take a step back after three straight wins and for the Orange to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn.

10* Coaches Corner on Syracuse. 

WMU/Nevada

These team's end of season numbers are similar, but WMU faced the more difficult overall schedule.

The Western Michigan Broncos average 30 PPG, while allowing 28.6. Nevada averages 36.7 PPG, while allowing 24.4. 

Each is led by a dynamic, playmaking QB. WMU has Kaleb Eleby, who finished with 3,115 yards passing, 21 TD's and five interceptions. Nevada is led by Carson Strong, who finished with 4,186 yards passing, 36 TD's and eight INT's. 

Nevada will also have an interim coach here in Vau Taua, who will fill in for Jay Norvell, who has already taken off for the Colorado State head coaching job.

WMU's entire roster will essentially be on the field of play today as well. Look for that to be a big difference-maker and lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on WMU. 

The Bills face New England in a critical game for both teams. The Patriots ran all over the Bills in their last windswept meeting, but weather, with possible snow, may still be a factor this time out. Covid may also be a factor with the Bills especially depleted.

After allowing a very uncharacteristic 27 points to the Colts, look for the Patriots’ defense to bounce back this week. Josh Allen is hampered by a foot injury, which may affect his usual mobility. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough on pass offenses, with low yards allowed and good QB pressure stats.

The Bills defense is very strong against the pass, but has been run on lately. Other than last week, QB pressure is not their strong point. The New England O line has protected Jones very well lately, while Allen has been sacked with frequency, specially last game.

Enter Belichik, New England’s thirteenth man. He and the Patriots are off a loss; two in a row is not a part of the plan. This game could be close, but a hampered Allen, the Bills covid issues, and the Bills’ uneven season sway me towards the Patriots. New England to win and cover.

Fresno State/Weber State

The Bulldogs are 9-3 this year. They're coming off a 55-50 road loss at Utah on Tuesday and I think they'll have a predictable "letdown" here as well in this difficult road venue. 

Orlando Robinson averages 18.2 points and 8.2 boards for Fresno State. So far the Bulldogs have conceded just 55.9 PPG this season.

The Wildcats are 9-3 so far as well. They're off an 89-71 home loss to BYU. Koby McEwan leads the way most nights by averaging 16.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Weber State is so far allowing 68.4 PPG.

The level of competition that each has faced to this point has to be taken into account for both teams. Weber State rebounds here at home and takes advantage of a now vulnerable Bulldogs side. 10* COACHES CORNER on Weber State. 

Denver/OKC

I think Denver is going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. OKC has won two straight games and covered in three straight. It's playing its best basketball of the season. Off the 102-99 road win at Memphis, it has a tough game at Phoenix tomorrow, so I expect it to make the most of friendly confines.

Denver is just 7-9 on the road. It only averages 106.8 PPG. Off a 133-115 road win at Atlanta and with a game at home tomorrow night against LaMelo Ball and the Hornets, not only is this a letdown off the big win over the Hawks, but a look-ahead spot as well.

Look for the "under the radar" Grizz to, at the very least, keep this one close down the stretch. 10* GAME OF WEEK on Thunder. 

Kennesaw State/Nebraska

Two teams in need of a win before the X-Mas break go H2H here. I think this one favors the favorite though. The Kennesaw State Owls have lost five of their last seven, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter looking to snap a five-game slide.

Kennessaw State averages 76.4 PPG, while allowing 72.1. Chris Youngblood is the star, averaging 13.5 points and 5.4 boards per game. 

Nebraska averages 73.9 PPG, while conceding 76.6. Alzono Verge Jr. averages 16.4 points and 5.8 boards per game. 

The Owls have lost five straight on the road. Yes, Nebraska has struggled to this point, but the level of competition for each school must be factored in here as well. 

The Cornhuskers will enjoy a week off over Christmas before getting into their conference schedule and I believe they make the most of this "tune up." Kennesaw State has lost five straight on the road and I don't trust its defense here in this difficult road venue.

Look for Nebraska to play hard until the final horn. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF YEAR on Nebraska. 

It is a tough call on the Seahawks/ Rams game, because of the Covid disruption. The Seahawks defense has shown real improvement lately in points allowed, red zone protection and rushing yards allowed. Their run offense has climbed dramatically, and Russel has looked back in form. How will they fare against the Rams? Much depends on who is playing today so it will be a last minute decision. The Rams are all about pass offense, with Stafford and Cupp front and center. It is not that the Rams never run, but they are 25th in the league at the moment, so winning against the Rams means controlling the pass. The Seahawks are not successful in QB pressure,(29th rated). They are worst in the league in pass yards allowed and there has been no sign of improvement lately. The Rams are not a warm and fuzzy matchup for the Seahakwks defense.

Northwestern State/Texas A&M

I think the 3-9 Northwestern State Demons come in under the radar here agains the 8-2 Texas A&M Aggies.

The Demons are off a 104-50 win over subdivision Southwest Adventist. Kendal Coleman continues to be a consistent bright spot by averaging 15.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. 

The Aggies have been impressive, but I say they have a small letdown here afrer their big 83-73 win over Oregon State last time out. Quenton Jackson is the lone double-digit scorer for the Aggies with 12.5 PPG.

Northwestern State averages 70.2 PPG, while allowing 79.7.

The Aggies average 72 PPG, while conceding 62.2.

Look for the visitors to hang around late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Northwestern State. 

The Broncos are off a lopsided win, the Bengals off a pair of losses. This is THE game to ante in or fold for both teams, in what will likely be a very close match up. At QB, the young dynamic Burrow gets the nod over Bridgewater, but with a couple of caveats. Burrow has been sacked an astounding 41 times, and has thrown for too many interceptions. Still, he is very cool under fire, and very good against the blitz.

Both teams have solid run offenses. The Broncos have been “runnin’ fools” in the last 3 weeks. The Broncos are a run-first offense, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, which plays to the Bengals’ strength on defense. Forcing Bridgewater to throw will likely be a Bengals focus.

Denver’s defense is strong against the pass and great in the red zone. Some teams have run on them and they are only average in QB pressure, which might be a break for Burrow. The Bengals defense does two things very well. They apply pressure to opposing QBs, and as noted are very strong against the run.

This game will be close, and likely hinges on turnovers. If the Bengals control their turnovers, they win outright. While the Broncos are solid in ball control, I still like the explosiveness of a Burrow-led Bengals offense. Take the Bengals with the points.

Robert Morris/Bowling Green

I think that Bowling Green gets caught "looking past" the lowly 1-8 Robert Morris Colonials. Most recently Robert Morris fell 85-74 to Florida Gulf Coast. The team is led by Kahiel Spear, who averages 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The Colonials average 70 PPG, while allowing 77.7. 

Bowling Green gets caught complacent after its 73-72 win over Oakland last time out. Daeqwon Plowden leads the way most nights for the Falcons with 15.1 points and 7.3 RPG. On the season BG is averaging 77.2 PPG, while allowing 74.7.

Bowling Green is just 6-24-2 ATS in its last 32 home games. With the X-Mas break upcoming, look for the Falcons to take the foot off the gas in the second half.

10* COACHES CORNER on Robert Morris. 

UL Lafayette/Marshall

This is the New Orleans Bowl. While the outright is possible, let's grab the points.

This is a neutral site game, but Lafayette should have more fans in the stands because of the proximity, but regardless I like the underdog in this one. The Herd finished 7-5. Marshall averages 34 points per game, while allowing 22.8.

The No. 17 Ragin Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in the Sun Belt Conferece Championship game. UL Lafayette averages 30.7 PPG, while allowing 18.3.

The Herd have the offense to keep pace and their defense will be one of hte best that the Cajuns have faced all season.

I expect a war until the final horn. 10* PLAYBOOK on Marshall. 

Wizards/Jazz

Washington comes in under the radar here after four straight losses. Utah comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won eight of its last nine.

These teams are moving in opposite directions, but I think the more desperate side will deliver ATS. This is a revenge game as well for Washington, that lost both SU and ATS at home to the Jazz earlier in the season.

Note that Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 as a road dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range.

I say this one is WAY tighter than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Wizards. 

Patriots/Colts

The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense.

The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed.

It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer.

While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense.

It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots

UTRGV/UTSA

I like the Vaqueros to keep this one close. UTRGV is 4-7, while the UTSA Roadrunners are 6-4. 

UTRGV is off a 70-60 loss to Texas Southern. RayQuan Taylor was a bright spot in defeat with 16 points and six boards. 

UTSA is 3-1 in its last four. It's off a tighter than expectd 78-73 win over Sam Houston on Saturday. 

The Roadrunners' strength of schedule has to be questioned somewhat. I see this one coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so that means I'm grabbing the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Texas Rio Grande Valley. 

Northern Colorado/Arizona

The 6-5 Northern Colorado Bears are going to catch the 9-0 Wilcats looking past them here to their long Christmas break, before a big road conference road trip starting at UCLA on December 30th.

The Bears are off a 74-69 win over South Dakota. They average 74.6 PPG, while allowing 72.8. Clearly, the last thing the visiting side can do is turn this into a faster-paced affair and expect to "hang" with the highest-scoring team in the nation.

Arizona averages 90.7 PPG, while allowing 61.7. The Wildcats though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a non-conference home favoirte in the -23 to -27 points range.

I look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half. No outright, but closer than expected. Northern Colorado 10* COACHES CORNER. 

Warriors/Knicks

The Knicks were the talk of the NBA last season. They're struggling this year though, as they enter having lost three straight, most recently a 112-97 home loss to the Bucks (New York though is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or less in.)

Golden State is now 17-9-1 after last night's 102-100 win at Indiana. The Warriors long Eastern-Conference road swing continues with games at Boston and Toronto after this.

On the heels of the second game of the B2B scenario though, I expect the Warriors to finally stumble here.

The Knicks are ultra-motivated to break out of their slump and here's the perfect "measuring stick" to do that against. New York has all the motivation it needs to get off the schneid and I expect it to deliver. That said, grab the points! 10* GAME OF THE WEEK.

The Bills meet the Bucs in a much awaited matchup. The game features two premier passers and a pair of pass-first offenses, so the outcome depends on how each team defends. Brady and his receivers face the Bills’ top ranked pass defense, but what the Bills don’t do is pressure the quarterback effectively. The Bucs have been very good at protecting Brady, so we can see a situation where Brady, with time, will be throwing against a very good secondary. For Allen the reverse is true. The Bucs have the 20th ranked pass defense, but are very good at pressuring the opposing QB. They are fourth in sacks for the season and had 5 last week. Can the Bucs get to Allen regularly or will he pick them to pieces through the air? A key factor in this game could be defense in the red zone. While the Bucs give up passing yards, they are significantly better than the Bills in defending in the red zone.

What about the running game? What running game.. The Bills don’t run much. Even last week in gale force winds, they stuck to the program. It is tough to run against the Bucs; they are 2nd rated in rushing defense. Tampa Bay has viable run options, but it is always option #2. Looking at how successful teams have been against the usually dependable Bills' run defense lately might give the Bucs pause for thought.

The Bills have been uneven this year, but good on the road. The Bucs, other than a blip in the beginning of November have maintained a steady ship, and are undefeated at home. Brady and Gronk have owned the Bills. Take Tampa Bay to win and cover.

FAMU/Akron.

The 2-5 Rattlers get ready to take on the 5-3 Zips. Outright win? I'm not calling for that.

But I do think this is a few too many points to be giving up to FAMU.

FAMU enters off a 69-55 loss to Florida Gulf Coast last time out. Bryce Morgan was a bright spot with 13 points (the Rattlers though are 7-1 ATS in their last eight off a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 55 points or less in.)

The Zips have won three straight. They're the better team. But I think they come in complacent here and get caught looking past their lowly opponent (note that Akron is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit non-conference home favorite.)

The Rattlers are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Florida A&M.

Lakers/Thunder

The Lakers are 13-13 after a 108-95 loss at Memphis last night. LA has chemistry issues. It's also old. The Lakers won't be in the NBA Finals this year obviously.

The young Thunder are off a huge 110-109 road win at Toronto. I say they keep it rolling here. OKC already beat the Lakers 107-104 as 10.5-point underdogs on November 4th and I think it can do it again.

James and company have a target on their back every night. They always have to face their opponents "A" game. Look for this road weary Lakers team to once again fall below the .500 mark.

Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Thunder. 

Denver/New Mexico

New Mexico is a heavy favorite. Denver has struggled this year, but I think it comes in under the radar tonight. 

The Lobos have been inconsistent. They beat New Mexico State 101-94 on the road, before then falling 78-76 to the Aggies at home in the following one.

Denver will have an opportunity here against a New Mexico side that ranks 266th in terms of defensive efficiency rankings. 

New Mexico is getting great pla from Jamal Mashburn Jr., who is avearging 21 PPG, but the Lobos are already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite.

Denver on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog.

I think the Pioneers keep this one interesting down the stretch. 10* COACHES CORNER on Denver. 

Cavs/Bucs

Why is everyone continuing to sleep on the Cavaliers? Cleveland comes into this one likely as the hottest team in the league after seven straight ATS victories.

Hows does that old saying go, good teams win, but great teams cover?

The Cavs had won four straight SU, before a tight 109-108 loss at home to Utah.

I like the Cavs to respond here in the second game of the back to back. The Bucks are dealing with injury issues and are preparing for a tough four-game road swing starting in Miami on Wednesday night.

And that's signficant to note, as the Bucks are off a 124-102 home win over the Heat in their most recent action Saturday.

Look for the under the radar visiting side to keep this one interesting late. 10* COACHES CORNER on Cavaliers. 

Ohio State/Penn State

Ohio State is off a 71-66 upset win over No. 1 Duke on Tuesday. It came from behind after being down by 13 points at halftime. EJ Lidell had 14 points and 11 boards, while Zed Key led all scorers with 20 points.

Call it a trap, call it a letdown, call you what you will, but I think that the Buckeyes are primed for a minor letdown here.

The 4-3 Penn State Nittany Lions don't have the same luxury though after falling 63-58 to Miami on Wednesday. John Harrar had 16 points, but the Nittany Lions turned the ball over 14 times. 

Ohio State averages 74.7 PPG, and it allows 68.9. Penn State is averaging 67.3 PPG, while conceding only 64.1. 

I say Ohio State has difficulty producing the same effort for a second straight time on the road. Look for the hungrier team to keep it close, if not come out on top. 10* COACHES CORNER on Penn State.

Giants/Dolphins

With the Dolphins, it is very much “what have you done lately?”The answer is a lot; 4 wins in a row, 4-0-1 ATS, Tagovailoa hitting 80+ completion % and +100 QB rating four times in the last five games for starters. Looking through the stats, the last four games show a dramatic turnaround. The Dolphins’ run defense, 10th on average, has been much better than that recently and has been blitzing very successfully. Even their dismal running game has improved.

For the Giants, the outlook is not so rosy. Jones their QB is not likely to play. His replacement Glennon is 6-21 lifetime and has hardly played this season. Last week the Giants’ defense held the Eagles to 7 points but they were only able to score 13. Without Jones, and with an average running game (of which Jones was an active part) up against the tough Dolphins run defense, it will be hard to score points this week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five games and have faced better teams than the Giants. Look for the Dolphins to continue in their winning way and cover.

Houston/Cincinnati.

The Cougars went 11-1 on the season, while the Bearcats enter at 12-0. With a win today, Cincinnati can become the first group of five conference program to reach the Playoff since it was started back in 2014. 

Houston averages 38.8 PPG. QB Clayton Tune was great with 3,013 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Alton McCaskill has 844 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.

The Cougars have been stout defensively as well, allowing 19.8 PPG.

That defense will be tested like it hasn't seen all season though with the Bearcats offense that averages 39.6 PPG. Desmond Ritter has 3,000 passing yards and 27 TD's, along with 342 rushing yards and six rushing TD's. 

The Bearcats defense has also been remarkable, allowing just 15.8 PPG.

Finally note that Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while the Cougars are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Lay the points, expect a blowout. Cincinnati 10* Game of the Week. 

Arkansas Little Rock/Arkansas

I think Arkansas takes the foot off the gas in the second half here as it gets caught looking ahead to the start of its conference schedule, starting with a tough game at Okalahoma, followed by at Mississippi State.

UALR has so far beaten the teams it should, and struggled against the "better" competition. That was the case last time out, falling 86-55 at Colorado State.

But this line is inflated here now. Note that UALR is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as well after a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 55 or less points in.

This line is a little TOO big. Look for a comfortable backdoor cover from the visiting side. UALR 10* COACHES CORNER. 

76ers/Hawks

I think this one sets up well for the hungry visiting side.

Philadelphia is 11-11, while Atlanta is 12-10.

The 76ers are off a tight 88-87 loss at Boston. Philly had to play from behind the entire night, and it was just unable to get over the hump at the end. With a tough upcoming two-game road set at Charlotte, the 76ers can't afford to take the foot off the gas.

The Hawks are off a 114-111 win at Indiana to open up December. When these teams played on October 30th, the 76ers won 122-94 as 3.5 point favorites and I expect a similar final discrepancy here as well.

This is a good matchup for Joel Embiid. He was shutdown by the Celtics, but finally we can expect a monster game from the Philly big man. 

There's plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. This is going to be a dog fight.

One last big stat working in favor of the visiting side sees the 76ers having gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine off a SU road loss in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in.

Grab the points. 10* GAME OF MONTH on Philadelphia. 

Pistons/Suns

I base my picks on many different things. Being flexible with one's approach is crucial in my opinion. Here I just think that the Suns are overvalued because of their 18 game win streak. They just took out the Warriors at home here two nights ago, and Golden State was on a 17-game win streak.

The Suns ultimately could care less about their win streak. They're realistic and understand it'll come to an end at some point. That won't be tonight. I believe the Suns will win, but I expect them to take the foot off the gas down the stretch as they prepare for the rematch with the Warriors in Golden State tomorrow night.

Look for the hungry Pistons to end their road trip with a solid effort and comfortable cover. 10* COACHES CORNER on the Pistons.

Pistons/Blazers

Portland has gone 0-3 SU/ATS over its last three. I expect it to come in focussed on the task at hand in this one.

Detroit lost both games in LA, but covered in each as a big underdog.

The Pistons though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back road covers.

Portland on the other hand is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after after three straight SU/ATS road losses in a row.

The Blazers have always played better at home, and that's definitely the case again this season, as they're just 1-10 on the road and 9-1 in Portland.

Detroit is just 2-8 on the road.

Look for the determined home side to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. 10* COACHES CORNER on Portland. 

It is last call for the Seahawks on Sunday, sporting a 30th and 32nd ranked offense and defense, and the Washington FT on the upswing. Wilson has not been in form since returning, but no matter how he performs on Monday, Seattle has very significant issues standing between them and a win.

The Seahawks, missing Carson, and with Collins limited, are without any real options on the run, and the FT handles the rush very well. Washington has a legitimate run game, 10th rated and improving in their last three games. The Seahawks defense has struggled against the run all season. As a backup QB, Heineke has performed much better than expected, particularly in his last two games. He has thrown for 4 TDs against 0 interceptions in those two games. Wilson is still an unknown this week, and he will face a poor but dramatically improving WFT pass defense. The same cannot be said of the Seahawks’ passing defense. They have been bad, (rated 30th) and stayed bad. Neither team protects their QB well, but Seattle really struggles; Wilson has been sacked 7 times in the two games since his return.

Wilson has worked miracles before, but the Seahawks aren’t helping his cause. This game is basically a pick’um. I am picking the Washington football team.

The Patriots are winning and often by a wide margin, limiting their last 3 opponents to a touchdown or less. The injury-riddled Titans have given up an average of 20 points over their last 4 games.

Post-Henry, the Titans rush offense has dropped significantly. Tannehill, without the protection of a premier running game and his three top targets, has been exposed and has seen his sack numbers rise to a whopping 31, along with 12 interceptions.

By comparison, rookie Mac Jones has developed well this season, has a higher completion rate, has been sacked less and has 2/3rds the interceptions. His completion rate has been in the 80’s in the last three Patriot games. The Patriots’ running game has found new footage of late, and has been in the NFL top three in their last 3 games.

The Titan 5th rated defense are hard to run against for yards, but they are not as effective in run points allowed. The Patriots are far more effective against the pass.

Injuries may catch up with the Titans on Sunday. With Henry, Jones and Brown all out, and Tannehill exposed, it is hard to see where their points will come from. If the Patriots maintain their withering defense of the last few games, and Jones continues in good form, the Patriots should win and cover.

Patriots

The Jets stagger into Calgary on a back to back and after a drubbing from the Wild.  Flames are rested and have Markstrom in net.  It is likely Comrie in the net for the Jets and he was shelled last time out.  The Flames are on a tear at the moment, have the best defense in the league, and a balanced and potent offense.  At 0-5, the Jets aren't scoring and are not going to break their losing streak tonight.  Take the Flames -1 1/2 all the way to the bank.

UTA/USU

UTA has lost all four games it's played this year against Division 1 opponents and its path doesn't get any easier this evening at Utah State. All that said though, I like the Mavericks to keep this one much closer than what this spread is suggesting.

UTA is already quietly turning the corner with its performance, losing to SDSU by six points in its last outing (as a 19-point underdog.)

Utah State enters complacent here after four straight wins. The Aggies won the Myrtle Beach championship with a 73-70 win over the Sooners last Sunday, so this sets up as a classic "trap" for the home side in my opinion.

Utah State may have been undervalued in the betting market up to this point, but now it's the Mavericks who are in that role.

UTA is playing much better now than its earlier struggles and numbers are still pointing to, so expect that progression to continue here.

Grab the points. Texas Arlington 10* GAME OF MONTH. 

Houston/UConn

Outright win? I'm not saying that of course. But I think that Houston will go up big, then cost to victory here in the second half as it prepares for the Conference Championship game and its Bowl berth. 

Houston is 10-1 and off the 31-13 home win over Memphis (note that the Cougars are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS home win in which they held their opponent to 13 or fewer points in.)

UConn has only played three games this year that were decided by ten points or fewer. The Huskies are averaging 15.5 PPG, while conceding 37.9. 

Houston averages 38.2 PPG, while allowing 20.1. The only knock against the Cougars this season is their level of competition.

But it's senior night for UConn as well. I say that the Huskies comfortably sneak in through the back door. 10* COACHES CORNER on UCONN. 

Baylor/VCU

This is the semi's of the Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. I like VCU to carry over its momentum here after upsetting Syracuse 67-55 as a 5-point underdog. 

It's early, but the Rams average 54 PPG, while allowing 52. Levi Stockard III had 15 points in the victory over the Orange.

Baylor is a perfect 5-0. Its' averaging 85.8 points per game, while conceding 55.6. LJ Cryer had 15 points in the Bears 75-63 win over Arizona State last night.

Clearly VCU will be trying to double down on the defensive end tonight to try and grind out the upset. Expect this one to be much closer than what this line is suggesting. VCU 10* COACHES CORNER. 

Heat/Wolves.

Miami is off a 100-92 win at Detroit, unable to cover the 10.5-point spread. The Heat have lost two straight ATS. With two nights off after this, followed by a final road game at Chicago, I think Miami gets caught flat-footed again here.

The Wolves are getting zero respect from the oddsmakers. They're slow in realizing how good Minnesota is playing right now. Minnesota has won four straight and covered in five straight. This is the best basketball that Minnesota has played in years.

Note that the Wolves are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 99 or less points in (just beat Pels 110-96 in NO.)

Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Wolves. 

Heat/Pistons.

Is Miami the better team?

Clearly it is.

Am I calling for an outright upset?

I am not.

But I think that Miami comes in complacent here and "plays down" to the level of its competition. 

Miami is 11-6 overall, but only 5-5 on the road. It's off a 103-100 loss at Washington. 

Detroit is off the 121-116 loss to the Lakers, and it'll be plenty fired up after the scuffle with LeBron James etc.

The Pistons are on the road for a very tough road trip as well after this game, with a game at Milwaukee tomorrow, followed by the Clippers, Lakers, Portland and Phoenix. That puts added importance onto tonight's game to try and "steal" a victory.

Miami on the other hand is in Minnesota tomorrow night, followed by a game at the Bulls. I think the Heat get caught looking ahead.

No outright. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Detroit. 

Grizzlies/Jazz

The Grizzlies had won two straight, scoring at least 120 points in each before getting blown out in their last game. 

Ja Morant averages 25.1 PPG for Memphis and he leads four players that average at least 14 PPG. 

The Jazz had lost four of five, before now entering this one having won three straight. Six players scored in double figures in the win over the Kings most recently.

One of these teams is desperate to break out of its current slide, while the other comes in complacent.

I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive down the stretch (note that the Grizz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss in their last outing.)

Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Grizzlies.

Southern/Nebraska

Southern lost its second straight game in a heart-breaking 71-68 loss to South Dakota State this past Friday. While it won the turnover battle 17-13, it lost the rebound battle by a 37-27 margin. Jayden Saddler had 19 points in a losing cause for the Jaguars.

Southern averages 66 PPG, while allowing 73.5. Nebraska averages 73.8 PPG, while allowing 69.2. 

The Cornhuskers enter off a 78-60 win over Idaho State. Keep your eyes on Bryce McGowens today, as he is averaging 16.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1 assist per game in the early going.

The Huskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five though vs. teams with losing records and 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing road records.

Southern has played decently, but I say this step up in competition will be too much for it to handle.

Lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Nebraska. 

Wyoming/Utah State

This is a big game for 5-5 Wyoming, which needs one more win to become eligible. It does have another chance next weekend, but with nothing to lose here as it tries to score the upset, I do indeed expect the visiting side to keep this one close down the stretch.

The Cowboys are led by a rushing offense that is ranked 47th in the nation. Xazavian Valladay has 797 passing yards and five TD's. Titus Swen has 549 rushing yards and four major scores.

I say Utah State, which smashed SJSU 48-17 in its last game, gets caught complacent here.

Logan Bonner has 25 TD's and ten INT's this year, but the Cowboys are adept at defending the pass.

I expect the visiting to hang around late, so grab as many points as you can!

10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF YEAR on Wyoming.

Heat/Wizards

Miami is off five straight covers and four straight victories. With two nights off before a game at Detroit though, I think the Heat come out cold here.

Washington plays with revenge after a 112-97 loss at Miami just two nights ago (and that's sigificant to note as the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.)

I think home court matters in this one for sure. The play is Washington. 10* PLAYBOOK on Washington. 

Bowling Green/Miami Ohio.

With a chance to earn bowl eligibility with a win today, I expect the Redhawks to not only win here today at home in this favorable matchup, but to do it in blowout style.

Bowling Green is just 3-7 SU this year. It's a disproportianate 7-3 ATS though. Miami Ohio is 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS.

Bowling Green was just torched 49-17 at home by Toledo and I think it'll have a difficult time keeping pace here today as well as an even bigger underdog.

Miami Ohio ran up thescore in last weekend's 48-18 win here at home over Buffalo as a 7-point favorite and all signs point to a duplicate game-plan here.

10* COACHES CORNER Miami Ohio. 

Suns/Wolves

The Suns are 9-3 after their 115-89 win at Houston last night. With two upcoming home games against Dallas starting on Wednesday, followed by Denver and a four-game road trip, I think Phoenix finally stumbles here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

Minnesota is off a 129-102 loss at the Clippers. The night before that they hammered the Lakers 107-83. 

Now the Wolves return home and I expect this healthy team to make a game of this one.

Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the second game of a B2B after holding its previous opponent to 95 or fewer points in the first. 

10* GAME OF WEEK Minnesota. 

Notre Dame/Virginia 

Both teams are eligible. Each is looking to improve its bowl berth now. An upset victory over the Irish would sure look good on the Cavs resume.

While it's not out of the question obviously, I'm going to grab the points in a contest which I envision being decided in the final moments.

The Irish have used three different QB's this season (Jack Coan, Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne.) 

The Notre Dame defense is elite as well. Last week it held Navy to 6 points.

The Cavaliers won their sixth game of the year, then they came up short in last week's 66-49 loss to BYU on October 30th.

They come out of their bye week having posted 48 or more points in three straight games.

With a week off to prepare, I think UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall will have a good game-plan drawn up.

As I said, I think the outright/upset is possible, but let's grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on UVA. 

Wyoming/Boise State.

Wyoming if 5-4. Boise State is 5-4. The Cowboys are just 1-4 in conference, while the Broncos are 3-2. 

The Cowboys kept their bowl hopes alive with a big 31-17 home win over Colorado State. I say they keep it rolling here. QB Levi Williams had 92 passing yards and two TDs.

Boise State improved to one game over .500 last time out as well with a 40-14 road win at Fresno State, with QB Hank Bachmeier going 15 of 27 for 283 yards and a TD.

Ultimately though in this crucial game, I tihnk it'll be the Cowboys' stout defensive play which keeps them in it late (concede only 21.3 PPG).

Boise State is the better team, but I don't think by this many points. 10* PLAYBOOK on Wyoming. 

Pistons/Cavaliers.

I've been impressed by the Cavaliers this year. They're 7-5 SU and they've won six straight against the spread. The recent loss of Colin Sexton is going to catch up to them though, and I firmly believe that'll be sooner, rather than later.

The Cavs get caught looking ahead to their game here against Boston tomorrow night, while Detroit will look to take advantage.

The Pistons have covered in two straight and they're off a big 112-104 outright win at Houston as 2.5-point underdogs last time out.

This one sets up as a possible outright upset, but grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on Pistons.

VMI/Presbyterian

The Blue Hose are 0-1, while the Keydets are 1-0. I think VMI is the correct call here.

The Keydets smoked Carlow University in their opener, while Presbyterian fell to Clemson. 

The Keydets though are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, while teh Blue Hose are interesting 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday and just 1-5 ATS in their last six off an ATS victory.

Outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VMI.

UNC/Pittsburgh.

UNC needs one more win to become eligible, but I think it'll come up short on the short week. The Tar Heels had fight from behind all day in last week's upset OT win at home over Wake Forest.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot?!

Pitt on the other hand is off a 54-29 win over Duke and I believe it's superior defense will prove to be the difference-maker today. 

The bottom line here is though, that this game doesn't in fact "mean more" to the Tar Heels. If Pitt wins out, then it'll earn a spot in the ACC Title game. 

The Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game as well, while the Tar Heels are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory.

Lay the points and expect a decisive result.

10* ACC GAME OF YEAR on Pittsburgh. 

Raptors/76ers

I like Toronto to bounce back here after last night's 104-88 loss at Boston.

The 76ers are ravaged by COVID right now and I expect the Raptors to quickly regroup here and to take advantage.

The Raptors have performed well in this position by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I'm not buying into the "fatigue factor" this early in the season either.

Philadelphia has lost two in a row, and with a six game Western road swing on deck after this, I expect it to go through the motions here as it prepares for that daunting trek.

Look for the Raptors to deliver on Thursday night.

10* COACHES CORNER on Toronto. 

Air Force/South Dakota.

The home side went 14-11 last year. The Falcons on the other hand won just five games last season, and they have almost an entirely new roster this year (AJ Walker is back, he averaged 15.3 points, 3.0 boards and 2.6 assists.) 

Overall the Falcons averaged only 58.7 PPG last year. 

South Dakota averaged 79 PPG, and this year it'll lean on A.J. Plitzuweit, who last year averaged 19.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game.

The Coyotes have four of their starters back this year. After going 0-4 in non-conference play last year, I think South Dakota comes in focussed here. Lay the points.

10* SPECIAL on South Dakota. 

FAU/New Mexico

FAU finished 13-10 last year and it's looking for its third straight winning season under coach Dusty May. New Mexico was terrible last season, finishing 6-16. The Owls went 7-5 in Conf. USA play. There are two double-digit scoring options on FAU. The Owls put up 78.1 PPG last year. 

The Lobos have plenty of issues coming into the season. Offense was the biggest issue, as New Mexico averaged only 65.3 PPG. 

The Lobos were terrible last year and it's going to take some time for Pitino to gets things turned around. I like the Owls to lay the hammer down here in what will be a hostile environment. 10* Coaches Corner on FAU.

Hornets/Grizzlies.

I'm expecting an all out war until the final horn. 

10* PLAY-BOOK on Charlotte. The Hornets played a back-to-back at LA, losing badly to the Clippers, but then bouncing back with a much better effort in what turned out to be an unfortunate 126-123 OT loss to the Lakers.

The Hornets have now lost five in a row (both SU and ATS), but I expect them, at the very least, to give the Grizz everything they can handle tonight.

Memphis off a tiring 125-118 OT home win over the Wolves, so I believe fatigue is a factor here. Also note that it's a look-ahead spot with Phoenix coming to town next.

I believe these teams are evenly matched on paper. That gives the advantage here to the "hungrier" team, which as I've clearly pointed out above, is the Hornets in my opinion. 10* Charlotte.

Ball State/NIU 

NIU is bowl eligible at 6-3, while Ball State needs one more victory as it's just 5-4. I think this matters. I believe the more desperate team will find a way to victory this evening (and that hungrier tearm is definitely the Cardinals!)

NIU lost 52-47 at Kent State last time out and I think it comes in exhausted here. Ball State is off a 31-25 win at Akron, but it can't be happy with the performance as the Cardinals were a 20-point favorite in that one.

The Huskies are terrible defensively and the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range.

I'm laying the points, the play here is Ball State.

Buffalo/Miami Ohio.

Buffalo is 4-5. It's gone 2-3 in conference play. They're off a 56-44 loss to Bowling Green. 

Miami Ohio is also 4-5. Both teams need two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Redhawks though are 3-2 in conference play. Off an upset 35-33 loss to Ohio, I like Miami Ohio to get back on track here in this crucial and important matchup.

The Bulls' offense revolves around RB Dylan Mcduffee, but their defense concedes 31.8 PPG. 

That's bad news facing the Redhawks, who have the 34th ranked passing attack in the country with 264 yards per game. Keep your eyes on QB Brett Gabbert, who already has 1,435 passing yards.

Buffalo's defensive issues come back to haunt it again. Lay the points, the play is Miami Ohio.

Siena/St. Bonaventure.

Sienna was 12-5 last year, taking the reg. season co-championship in the MAAC, while St. Bonaventure easily won the A-10 and went on to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Siena eventually lost 55-52 to Iona in the Conference Tournament semifinal. 

The Bonnies however also won the regular season title over VCU, and eventually fell 76-61 to LSU in the First Round.

The Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. The Bonnies are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 at home.

All five senior starters return for St. Bonaventure, so lay the points here!

10* Bonnies. 

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

This is a big game for both teams, as each sits at 5-3. They each need one more win to become bowl eligible. However, I really do think that the home field will be a big advantage for the Razorbacks today.

Mississippi State is off a 31-17 home win over Kentucky, but I think it'll stumble here on the road. 

Arkansas State won't be lacking for motivation here obviously, as it's just 1-3 and last in the SEC West. Arkansas pulled off the upset 21-14 last year over Ole Miss as a 16.5-point dog. 

Will Rogers was 36 of 39 for Ole Miss last weekend, but I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for him this weekend.

Arkansas comes in rested as well off its bye. The Razorbacks are 100% healthy and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when coming out of their bye week and playing at home.

Look for Ole Miss to stumble off last week's big win and for the rested home side to pull away down the stretch.

Duke @ Wake Forest

Duke comes into this ACC Matchup with a 3-4 record. Last week, they got absolutely torched by UVA 48-0. That makes them now 0-8 their past 8 games played against opponents from this conference. On the road this year, the Blue Devils are a sad 0-3 ATS. They've also allowed 440+ yards per game from their opponents.

The Demon Deaconds come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record. They are off a huge win against Army where they dropped 70 points on the scoreboard. Dating back a few seasons, Wake Forest is a dominant 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. QB Sam Hartman has been unbelievable this season as well. With 19 TDs and only 3INTs, while adding 4 more TDs on the ground, Wake couldn't be more happy.

With Wake Forest having beaten UVA by 20, and Duke losing to them by 50, I expect no short of an annihilation this Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons.

Michigan @ Nebraska

Michigan is going to have a letdown, but it's not going to be this weekend.

The Wolverines are 5-0, most recently coming off a 38-17 victory over Wisconsin.

Nebraska is off a 56-7 win over Northwestern.

The Wolverines won four straight at home though before hitting the road and defeating the Badgers last weekend.

I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace with this high-flying Wolerines offense though that enters averaging 40.2 PPG. QB Cade McNamara has 731 yards passing and five TD's, while RB Blake Corum has 521 rushing yards and seven major scores on the ground.

Michigan allows just 12.8 PPG, while Wisconsin concedes 15.5

Previous to last week's win, the Huskers had lost two straight. Wisconsin averages 32.2 PPG, led by Adrian Martinez who has 1,463 passing yards, six TD's and two INT's. 

Nebraska though is a poor 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Michigan faced the best rush defense in the nation last weekend and still posted over 100 yards. 

Go with the Wolverines here to pull away down the stretch.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC.

The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC.

UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina

After getting dominated in week 1, UL Monroe has won two straight to get back in the bowl hunt. Although they are 2-1, they've been awful on the road. Dating back to last season, the Warhawks are a terrible 0-9 in their last 9 road games. they are also 1-8 in their last 9 games played against teams in their Conference (Sun Belt.)

Coastal Carolina has been near perfect dating back to last season, with only the one loss. After last week's 53-3 win, the Chanticleers are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. I expect QB McCall to have anothe excellent game against this weak opponent.

This is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball and the oddsmakers know it. The spread is big, but it's not big enough. Expect atleast a 40pt win for CCU.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings

Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today.

Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but  the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff.

With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle

West Virginia @ Oklahoma

The Mountaineers are now 2-1 after a 27-21 win over then No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech. 

The Sooners are off a 23-16 victory over Nebraska as 22.5 point favorites.

So far WVU is averaging 39 PPG, throwing for 271.3 and rushing for 139.7. QB Jarret Doege had 193 yards, two TD's and an INT last week. The Mountaineers have also been good defensively in conceding just 17 PPG.

The Sooners may be 3-0, but I think they'll have a fight on their hands here today. Okalahoma is averaging 45.7 PPG, while allowing 17. Spencer Rattler had 214 yards and a TD in the Sooners victory last week.

Oklahoma though is poor in this spot for bettors (3-8 ATS its last 11 after scorign 40 or more points in its previous game), while WVU has been good (5-1 ATS its last six games played in September.) 

I think the Sooners are susceptible defensively. Grab all these points, the play is West Virginia 10* BIG PLAY

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0.

The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time.

These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing.

I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. 

Cubs (Davies, 6-11, 5.40) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.25)

The Brewers are comfortably aligned for the post-season, with very good starting pitching and a very sharp bullpen. All they need now is to jump-start their recently sluggish bats. Today’s game might be that opportunity.

The Cubs’ bats have been hot lately, but that hasn’t translated into wins. At 4-6, and 20 games out, they are just playing out the season at this point. Cubs starter, Zack Davies has been a workhorse this season and had a couple of quality starts in August, but has since struggled. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.76 in his last three starts. Supported, or not supported by a bullpen with an ERA of 6.00, pitching an unsustainable 4.25 innings per game of late, this does not bode well for their chances today. Add to this a 27-44 road record.

Brewers starter Adrian Houser is on the mound today for the Brewers. Houser, a real success story for the Brewers, had a rough start three outings ago, but in his last two starts has given up 0 runs over 15 innings. He has had great support this season with a team record of 16-7 with him on the mound. I mentioned that the brewers’ pen was sharp. How does an ERA of 0.67 L7 sound? The Brewers are a solid home team and 71-42 vs right-handers.

The odds for the Brewers are very favorable.Take the Brewers, - 1 1/2. They are worth the extra runs today.

East Carolina vs. Appalachian State

The Mountaineers are loaded on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State averaged better than 34 points last season, as well as more than 450 yards. Many of the skill players that put up those numbers are back. The secondary was already the best in the Sun Belt and the Mountaineers bring back 10 defensive starters. 

The Pirates are a bad defensive team. They will have trouble stopping the balanced Mountaineer attack. Thursday night football has not been kind to ECU. The Pirates are 5-12 ATS their last 17 Thursday games. They are also 4-11 ATS their last 15 outside of their own conference. 

The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball. They won't be stopped in this one. Lay the points with Appalachian State. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

It's great to have some Monday night football. Much of the buzz around tonight's game surrounds Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Exciting, yes. Keep in mind that the #1 pick will be facing a formidable Saints defense though. New Orleans ranked in the top five of most defensive categories last year. 

Lawrence should get the Week 1 start for Jacksonville. The Saints have a QB controversy of their own though. Hill and Winston both have their eyes on the job. Both are going to be going all out tonight. Expect them to enjoy success on offense. 

The Saints turned the ball over six times in Week 1. That's not going to happen again. Peyton will make sure of it. He's not going to want Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer to stroll into his team's home and beat them either. Preseason or not. The number is reasonable. I'm laying the points with the Saints on Monday night. 

New York Mets (Walker) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Brubaker)

The Pirates are winners of two straight against the Mets. In Sundays match-up, Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.50) faces off against J.T. Brubaker (4-9, 4.47) and hopes to stop the bleeding for the Mets. Walker has been very sharp, giving up only 5 earned runs in his last three starts. He has been particularly strong against right-handed batters, with an ERA of 2.16.

Brubaker has been spiraling in the wrong direction. The loser of three straight, the Pirates are only 4-12 when he is on the mound. Adding to this is a Pirates bull pen, average at best, and very poor over the last seven games.

Both teams are light-hitting, but the Mets have thrived on right handed pitching (38-25) while the Pirates have struggled (28-41). The Pirates’ home record is nothing to brag about either.

My wager

I think the buck stops with Walker. He has been as dominant as any pitcher of late, and has had plenty of run support. Brubaker is heading sideways, and the Pirates‘ relievers cannot be counted on to back him up. Take the Mets -1.5.

The set-up: The Dodgers won this game here last night by a score of 3-2 and I expect another really tight affair here as well. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. For me, the starting pitchers are completely even. Honestly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to win here. Kevin Gausman is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA for San Fran, while Walker Buehler is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA for LA.

The pick: San Francisco is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a one run road loss to an opponent. I think the outright win is absolutely possible, but in the end I'm going to hammer the Giants on the run-line.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE COACHES CORNER on the Giants.

The set-up: The Suns are in the cusp of punching their ticket to the NBA Finals. I think Phoenix will win this series, but it could have its hands full here in Game 5 in trying to put away this desperate Clippers team. LA lost 84-80 in Game 4, and it now has its back against the wall in this elimination contest. 

The pick: I think LA is going to show up and play well defensively and after a poor shooting game last time out, I also expect Paul George to be much more efficient here. The Suns are the better team, but I think this one will come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Clippers.

The set-up: Obviously, the Astros are the better team. However, I think the stage is set for a closer game than what this insane moneyline price would suggest. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but I do think the hungry Orioles can keep it competitive. The visiting side goes with Tom Eshelman (0-1, 7.27 ERA) who was crushed by these very Astros last week for six runs and striking out only one over four innings. Previous to that in his debut he looked good in holding the hard-hitting Jays to one run over five innings. I think Eshelman settles down here, and actually benefits in having already seen the Astros line-up.

The pick: Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.56), gave up one run and struck out four over 7.1 innings in a victory over these very Orioles last Tuesday. Greinke's been great this year, but note, while he's 5-0 with a 2.07 ERA on the road, he's just 3-2 with a 5.27 ERA at home. This one is going to be decided late, so let's take the visitors on the spread option tonight.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Orioles.

The set-up: I've had a lot of success playing on Montreal so far in the playoffs. I think that the Habs have been completely underrated. The Lightning are probably the better team in this series, but they've been less the dominant, needing seven games to get past the Islanders. I think Montreal is better than New York. 

The pick: This is going to be a tight series. I think Game 1 will see Montreal try to do what it's done so often in this playoffs, and that's steal Game 1. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. 

This is a 10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Canadiens.

The set-up: I just think the Clippers are going to dig deep and deliver the goods in this Game 3. They won't be panicking, as they've already been here in their two previous series, going down 0-2, only to then rally for a series victory. I got down early and have an unfavorable line, and while the Clippers are now the slight home dog, I still think that the change in venue is just what Paul George and this veteran-laden Clippers team needs to get back into this series. 

The pick: Game 2 was tight, and the Clippers had their chances at the end. I say Game 3 is controlled start to finish by the home side. Chris Paul won't be at 100% health and I think LA's competent guards can slow him down even further. For all the reasons listed above, the play is LA.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Clippers.

The set-up: I think the Pirates have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. That said, I'll lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs on the "run line" option. The Cards have lost three straight and they face Chad Kuhl (1-4, 5.66 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run over six innings and striking out four in a victory over the Indians. 

The pick: Kuhl has struggled, but I think he can build off his last performance and get the better of his counterpart Carlos Martinez (3-8, 6.62), who most recently got shelled for eight runs over three innings in a loss to the Braves. Martinez has now been rocked for at least five runs in three of his last four outings. I think Kuhl on the RUN LINE is the correct call here.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Pirates.

The set-up: The Atlanta Hawks are averaging 106.3 points on 44.4 percent shooting and allowing 105 points in the playoffs, while the Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 107.9 points on 45.1 percent shooting and allowing 102.3 points so far in the post-season. The Bucks were one of the favorites to advance in the East before the season started, but the Hawks rise to this point is nothing short of spectacular. Clearly, Atlanta has already exceeded expectations to this point. 

The pick: I think Milwaukee is going to win this series. I don't think it'll sweep Atlanta though. That said, I do think that the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is a major matchup issue for the Hawks and I believe that Atlanta is going to struggle down the stretch of this opener. I'm laying points and expecting a comfortable cover for the home side in Game 1.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks.

The set-up: Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA) gave up five runs over four innings against San Diego on Wednesday. Over 20.2 innnings, he has a poor 2.27 WHIP and 12/11 K/W. Clearly, the only way Freeland can go is "up" from here. That said, the sample size is still way too small at this point and he draws a favorable matchup here against this poor Seattle offense.

The pick: Chris Flexen (6-3, 4.12) comes in off a great start, going eight scoreless against the Twins. Of concern though is that he has just 44 strikeouts over 67.2 innings of work. I don't trust either starter, but believe that Freeland's "upside" is where the value lies here. 

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Rockies.

The set-up: The Clippers ran out of gas in the fourth quarter, but despite only shooting 45 percent from the floor, they still had a shot at upsetting the Suns in Game 1. Phoenix didn't look overly impressive and I believe the Clippers can make the necessary adjustments to not only make Game 2 even more competitive, but possibly even pull off the straight-up upset here. 

The pick: The continued absence of Chris Paul won't help this Suns team over the long-term. He'll likely return soon, but he's out again tonight. So is Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA is deep and experienced and I believe it throws it best shot at the Suns tonight. That said, grab the points.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Clippers.

The set-up: Some cappers put a lot of stock into where the public money is going. Most sharps are contrarian by nature. When there's just a few games remaining though, those percentages of public money become skewed. I think they're much more accurate during the regular season. Most of the public money is on the Hawks, but in this case I think the public is correct. 

The pick: This is going to be a battle. It has been all series. Very back and forth and very close. Nothing's going to change here. Note though that the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 100 points or less in. This one comes down the final moments, so grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks.

The set-up: The Nets would have easily won this series if not for injuries to James Harden and Kyrie Irving. I don't think that Kevin Durant is the best basketball player of all time, but he's clearly been the best players in this series. Even better than the Bucks Giannis, who has played very well himself. But KD is going to be exhausted at this point and after the Game 6 collapse, I think the Bucks can smell the blood in the water. 

The pick: Further, note that Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 90 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory. Milwaukee's depth will prove to be the difference here vs. this wounded and undermanned Nets side. 

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks.

The set-up: Germany looked less than impressive in its loss to France, while Portugal rolled to a 3-0 win over Hungary. The Portugese won't be taking the foot off the gas here in this difficult group, and the pressure really is on the Germans here (especially with an own goal from Mats Hummels deciding the contest in Munich.)

The pick: Joachim Low's team struggled to create opportunities, and I think that'll again be the case here vs. Portugal. Germany will be desperate to avoid defeat, as a draw today wouldn't be the end of its chances. I'm laying the price and grabbing the spread on Portugal here.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Portugal +0.5.

The set-up: With a chance to end this series here and now, I like the Hawks chances to do just that. This is a well-coached team that continues to get underestimated, both by its opponents, and the bookmakers. It's Atlanta that is controlling the pace and flow of this series and I say nothing changes here in this crucial contest. Philadelphia has the best player on the floor in Joel Embiid, but the Hawks counter with the second best player in this series in Trae Young. 

The pick: The bottom line here though is that Atlanta's defense has been the difference-maker for it during the playoffs and I like the Hawks to continue that run here in this crucial Game 6. Outright win is completely possible obviously, but let's grab the points just in case.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Hawks.

The set-up: I think the Giants will not only win this game, but win by a significant margin. The visitors hand the ball to Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.04 ERA), who returns from a stint on the injured list. Gallen struggled with control before landing on the IL, but he's now been given the green light to go here. He'll be on a short leash though, which definitely swings the odds in favor of Kevin Gausman today. 

The pick: Gausman (7-1, 1.43) is coming off his first loss of the season, giving up only two runs over four innings to the Nationals. To go along with his minuscule 0.78 WHIP, he also owns a sharp 97:18 K:BB over 81.2 innings of work. Look for Gausman to go deep, for Gallen to the get the hook early, and for the home side to post a big winning victory.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Giants.

The set-up: Yes, the Golden Knights looked fantastic in Game 1, but I believe that Montreal can make adjustments to be much more competitive in Game 2. The Habs won't be panicking. Montreal has played extremely well, as it had to battle back from a 3-1 deficit to beat high-powered Toronto in seven games, before then sweeping the high-powered Jets in four. 

The pick: The Habs are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two-goals or greater loss to an opponent. Look for Montreal to at the very least, take this one into extras. 

This is a 10* PUCK-LINE ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Canadiens.

The set-up: Despite both Kyrie Irving and James Harden sitting this one out, I think Kevin Durant and his cast of role players can take this inconsistent Bucks team down to the wire. 

The pick: I think that Blake Griffin, Jeff Green and Joe Harris will have significantly better games at home. The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but also note that Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 at home. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Nets.

The set-up: I think the extra time off here benefits the underdog. The Habs are going to try and win this game by a "war of attrition." Montreal is red hot and I think it has the unit to upset the Golden Knights at their own game. 

The pick: I had a play on the Islanders on the PUCK-LINE last night as well, but didn't even need the extra goal and a half. Here though, we very well could. In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra time, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals.

This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Canadiens.

The set-up: The Hawks have been fantastic at making game-to-game adjustments since Nate McMillan took over as head coach. I think that happens again here. Atlanta is now desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole and I like the Hawks to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Note that Philly is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS victories in a row as well. 

The pick: ATL on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a 15 points or greater SU/ATS home loss to an opponent. Look for Trae Young to have a monster game for the Hawks' defense to finally show up as well. Outright is obviously possible, but grab the points.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks.

The set-up: Up and down the line, these clubs are very evenly matched. The Islanders have the lockdown defense to push the Lightning to the brink in this series. I also like New York to push the Bolts in Game 1. Note that the Isles are 7-1 in their last eight when playing with three or more days of rest.

The pick: Conversely, the Lightning are only 2-6 in their last eight when playing with five or more days of rest. I'm banking on the defensive-minded visiting side, to at the very least, take this one into extra time.

This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Islanders.

The set-up: Brooklyn looked like it was going to roll over the Bucks in this series, but then it shifted to Milwaukee and the Bucks somehow managed to hold on for the 86-83 victory. It was a back and forth game and really, Milwaukee did not win that one by very much obviously. But I think that Game 4 finally sets up as a great spot for the Bucks to bounce back with a convincing win.

The pick: Brooklyn's role players aren't contributing and it's two super stars are now worn out, as the continued absence of "The Beard" is now taking its toll on the Nets. I like Giannis and company to lay the hammer down here. Outright win is obvious, but let's grab the points anyways.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks.

The set-up: I think the Clippers have a legitimate shot at taking Game 2 outright. LA let a lead slip away in Game 1, and it had a shot at sending it to OT late, but ultimately while LA covered in Game 1, it lost outright. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George continue to play well though and the Clippers have the defensive toughness to make adjustments and play better against Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz. 

The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it allowed 110 or more points in. I say that this one comes right down to the wire (at the very least) as well, and that's why I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the LA Clippers.

The set-up: The Hawks destroyed the 76ers in Game 1. Well, they did for three quarters anyways, and then they took the foot off the gas and allowed Philly to make a game of it. Atlanta never trailed though and I think the Hawks have a legimtate shot at taking Game 2 as well. Atlanta looked especially good on the defensive side for three quarters. 

The pick: Is 76ers big man Joel Embiid back to 100% health? He wasn't in top form in Game 1 and the uncertainty in Game 2 is definitely not going to help this 76ers offense. When Embiid is in the line-up, the offense is run through him, but his injury makes it awkward and difficult to game-plan in the short-term. The Hawks are 100% healthy, hungry and Nate McMillan has been brilliant in making adjustments from game to game and I expect him to have another masterpiece planned tonight. Grab the points.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks.

The set-up: With a chance to eliminate the dangerous Hurricanes, I think the defending champs will not only win Game 5, but I expect them to win big, getting a couple extra emtpy netters in the process. Carolina is on the ropes and I don't think it has the heart left in it to compete from a 1-3 hole. 

The pick: Carolina got out of its normal game-plan in Game 4, having to push the pace to try and avoid the 1-3 hole, and it'll have to abandon its normally tight defensive game-plan here as well. And that I think is not going to work against the Champs, who are versatile and can adapt. Great value, expect Tampa to move on with a decisive victory.

This is a 10* PUCK-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Lightning.

The set-up: I'm expecting an absolute war until the final horn. In fact, this game could even go to extra's, that's how competitive it's been. LA's only averaed 108 points here during the playoffs, while Dallas has averaged 115 on the road.

The pick: The Mavericks are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 100 points or less in. Outright victory? Of course. Dallas has already proven it can win here. In the end though, let's grab the points.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: We haven't yet really witnessed the true power of these Brooklyn Nets. Kyrie Irving, KD and James Harden only played in eight regular seaosn games together, and Brooklyn still finished No. 2 in scoring behind the Bucks. Both teams rolled through their first round opponents, but was most impressive to me was how well the Nets played defensively against the Celtics.

The pick: The Heat were completely pathetic. I think Boston could have beaten Miami if they played in the first round. I expect the Nets' Big 3 to take this personally and to send an early message. A great "situational" play here, so lay the points.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Nets.

The set-up: These teams are evenly matched, but this is the biggest spread so far in the series. I think the outright upset is very possible here, but in the end I'm going to grab the points. The Nuggets have a chance to close out this series here and now after their 147-140 OT win. Damian Lillard had a truly monster game for the Blazers, and Portland still couldn't pull off the upset. I don't see the Blazers being able to push this one to a Game 7. 

The pick: Nikola Jokic continues to put up impressive numbers and Denver's depth and experience is paying huge dividends right now. The Nuggets are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Nuggets.

The set-up: I think LeBron James and the Lakers have more than enough fight in them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. AD can still return to this series, and LA will be looking great heading home to Game 6 if it can somehow pull off an upset. I don't see much of a drop off here with Andre Drummond ready step and fill the void left by Davis. 

The pick: Chris Paul and Devon Booker are going to have their hands full with LA's elite defense. The Lakers are one of the best in defending the perimeter and I believe the visiting side will double down on that end of the court tonight. I'm not counting out King James in this big game situation. While the outright victory is possible, in the end let's grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Lakers.

The set-up: I say the Wizards don't go down without a fight here. Note that Philadelphia is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. 

The pick: Washington is also 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in a "double revenge" spot against an opponent, so the fact that this is a "triple revenge" spot makes this play even stronger. I think the outright win is a possibiity as well. I say Washington fights until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Wizards.

The set-up: The Nets suddenly are facing some adversity. The Celtics finally made some adjustments and combined with a little "home cooking" Jayson Tatum and company looked much better in their upset Game 3 victory. And now I believe Boston will keep the foot on the gas here to try and even things up.

The pick: The Nets have all the talent in the World, but dominating in the regular season and doing well in the playoffs are two entirely different things. Brooklyn's weakness all year has been on the defensive end and I expect it to regress here in this now pressure situation. While the outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Boston Celtics.

The set-up: Philadelphia won the first two games at home, but I expect a minor letdown here in its first game away from friendly confines. Russell Westbrook is listed as questionable for this game, and while I do expect him to play, whether he does or not I still love Bradley Beal and the revenge-minded Wizards to claw tooth and nail at home, and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. 

The pick: Note that the Wizards are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. With their backs against the wall, look for the Wizards to put forth their best effort so far in this series and in the process, easily cover this spread. Grab the points.

This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Wizards.

The set-up: So far Brooklyn has clearly been the better team. I knew the Nets could score, but it's been their defensive play which has been the suprising thing over their first two victories in this series. I didn't think though that the Celtics would win this series, but I also don't expect it go get swept. This is it, do or die for Boston, as clearly an 0-3 hole would be just too big for it to climb out of. 

The pick: Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge back-to-back SU/ATS losses to an opponent. The Nets somehow managed to hold Boston star Jayson Tatum to just nine points in Game 2, but I expect an entirely different effort from the All Star at home. Expect a much grittier effort from Boston today (and grab as many points as you can!)

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the Celtics.